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Aptiv PLC logo
Aptiv PLC
APTV · IE · NYSE
67.97
USD
+0.72
(1.06%)
Executives
Name Title Pay
Ms. Katherine Hargrove Ramundo Executive Vice President, Chief Legal Officer, Chief Compliance Officer & Secretary 1.63M
Mr. Obed D. Louissaint Executive Vice President & Chief People Officer 3.58M
Ms. Jane Wu Vice President of Investor Relations & Corporate Development and Treasurer --
Mr. Allan J. Brazier Vice President & Chief Accounting Officer --
Mr. Matthew Peterson Senior Vice President & Chief Information Officer --
Mr. Kevin P. Clark President, Chairman & Chief Executive Officer 3.97M
Mr. William T. Presley Vice Chairman & Chief Operating Officer 1.94M
Mr. Joseph R. Massaro Vice Chairman of Business Operations & Chief Financial Officer 3.02M
Mr. Benjamin Lyon Senior Vice President & Chief Technology Officer 1.67M
Ms. Lisa Scalzo Senior Vice President & Chief Communications Officer --
Insider Transactions
Date Name Title Acquisition Or Disposition Stock / Options # of Shares Price
2024-06-21 Liotine Joseph T. President, S&PS A - A-Award Ordinary Shares 34236 0
2024-06-21 Liotine Joseph T. President, S&PS A - A-Award Ordinary Shares 22824 0
2024-06-21 Liotine Joseph T. President, S&PS A - A-Award Ordinary Shares 39809 0
2024-06-12 COOPER NANCY E director D - S-Sale Ordinary Shares 394 76.98
2024-06-13 COOPER NANCY E director D - S-Sale Ordinary Shares 399 75.04
2024-05-06 Presley William T. SVP & COO & President, S&PS D - S-Sale Ordinary Shares 3780 81.99
2024-05-07 Presley William T. SVP & COO & President, S&PS D - S-Sale Ordinary Shares 3780 84.57
2024-04-29 Liotine Joseph T. President, S&PS D - Ordinary Shares 0 0
2024-04-25 Jakkal Vasumati P. director A - A-Award Ordinary Shares 3362 0
2024-04-23 CLEMMER RICHARD L director D - F-InKind Ordinary Shares 235 70.25
2024-04-25 Parris Colin J. director A - A-Award Ordinary Shares 2690 0
2024-04-23 Parris Colin J. director D - F-InKind Ordinary Shares 249 70.25
2024-04-25 MEISTER PAUL M director A - A-Award Ordinary Shares 5183 0
2024-04-23 MEISTER PAUL M director D - F-InKind Ordinary Shares 337 70.25
2024-04-25 HOOLEY JOSEPH L director A - A-Award Ordinary Shares 4552 0
2024-04-23 HOOLEY JOSEPH L director D - F-InKind Ordinary Shares 279 70.25
2024-04-25 Ortberg Robert Kelly director A - A-Award Ordinary Shares 2522 0
2024-04-23 Ortberg Robert Kelly director D - F-InKind Ordinary Shares 228 70.25
2024-04-25 COOPER NANCY E director A - A-Award Ordinary Shares 2774 0
2024-04-23 COOPER NANCY E director D - F-InKind Ordinary Shares 259 70.25
2024-04-25 Mahoney Sean O director A - A-Award Ordinary Shares 2690 0
2024-04-23 Mahoney Sean O director D - F-InKind Ordinary Shares 249 70.25
2024-04-25 Pinczuk Ana G. director A - A-Award Ordinary Shares 4202 0
2024-04-23 Pinczuk Ana G. director D - F-InKind Ordinary Shares 248 70.25
2024-04-25 Janow Merit E director A - A-Award Ordinary Shares 2522 0
2024-04-23 Janow Merit E director D - F-InKind Ordinary Shares 228 70.25
2024-04-24 Jakkal Vasumati P. director D - Ordinary Shares 0 0
2024-04-02 Mahoney Sean O director D - G-Gift Ordinary Shares 632 0
2024-03-26 CLARK KEVIN P Chairman and CEO D - G-Gift Ordinary Shares 39775 0
2024-03-11 Lyon Benjamin SVP & CTO D - S-Sale Ordinary Shares 1648 77.69
2024-03-11 Lyon Benjamin SVP & CTO D - S-Sale Ordinary Shares 17032 77.69
2024-02-28 Cole Matthew M SVP & President, ASUX A - A-Award Ordinary Shares 11488 0
2024-02-28 Cole Matthew M SVP & President, ASUX A - A-Award Ordinary Shares 7659 0
2024-02-28 Cole Matthew M SVP & President, ASUX D - F-InKind Ordinary Shares 2497 78.77
2024-02-28 Brazier Allan J Chief Accounting Officer A - A-Award Ordinary Shares 4595 0
2024-02-28 Brazier Allan J Chief Accounting Officer A - A-Award Ordinary Shares 3064 0
2024-02-28 Brazier Allan J Chief Accounting Officer D - D-Return Ordinary Shares 287 0
2024-02-28 Brazier Allan J Chief Accounting Officer D - F-InKind Ordinary Shares 1734 78.77
2024-02-28 Massaro Joseph R CFO and SVP, Business Ops A - A-Award Ordinary Shares 47869 0
2024-02-28 Massaro Joseph R CFO and SVP, Business Ops A - A-Award Ordinary Shares 31912 0
2024-02-28 Massaro Joseph R CFO and SVP, Business Ops D - D-Return Ordinary Shares 2324 0
2024-02-28 Massaro Joseph R CFO and SVP, Business Ops D - F-InKind Ordinary Shares 12843 78.77
2024-02-28 Presley William T. SVP & COO & President, S&PS A - A-Award Ordinary Shares 29870 0
2024-02-28 Presley William T. SVP & COO & President, S&PS A - A-Award Ordinary Shares 19913 0
2024-02-28 Presley William T. SVP & COO & President, S&PS D - D-Return Ordinary Shares 1420 0
2024-02-28 Presley William T. SVP & COO & President, S&PS D - F-InKind Ordinary Shares 7413 78.77
2024-02-28 CLARK KEVIN P Chairman and CEO A - A-Award Ordinary Shares 103396 0
2024-02-28 CLARK KEVIN P Chairman and CEO A - A-Award Ordinary Shares 68930 0
2024-02-28 CLARK KEVIN P Chairman and CEO D - D-Return Ordinary Shares 6287 0
2024-02-28 CLARK KEVIN P Chairman and CEO D - F-InKind Ordinary Shares 35579 78.77
2024-02-28 Louissaint Obed D. SVP & Chief People Officer A - A-Award Ordinary Shares 26041 0
2024-02-28 Louissaint Obed D. SVP & Chief People Officer A - A-Award Ordinary Shares 17360 0
2024-02-28 Louissaint Obed D. SVP & Chief People Officer D - F-InKind Ordinary Shares 1252 78.77
2024-02-28 Lyon Benjamin SVP & CTO A - A-Award Ordinary Shares 23934 0
2024-02-28 Lyon Benjamin SVP & CTO A - A-Award Ordinary Shares 15956 0
2024-02-28 Lyon Benjamin SVP & CTO D - F-InKind Ordinary Shares 18577 78.77
2024-02-28 Ramundo Katherine H SVP, CLO, CCO & Secretary A - A-Award Ordinary Shares 20296 0
2024-02-28 Ramundo Katherine H SVP, CLO, CCO & Secretary D - D-Return Ordinary Shares 898 0
2024-02-28 Ramundo Katherine H SVP, CLO, CCO & Secretary A - A-Award Ordinary Shares 13531 0
2024-02-28 Ramundo Katherine H SVP, CLO, CCO & Secretary D - F-InKind Ordinary Shares 14890 78.77
2023-10-01 Louissaint Obed D. SVP & Chief People Officer D - F-InKind Ordinary Shares 11563 98.59
2023-09-15 Massaro Joseph R CFO and SVP, Business Ops D - S-Sale Ordinary Shares 1900 101.87
2023-06-06 Pinczuk Ana G. director D - G-Gift Ordinary Shares 4266 0
2023-06-02 Mahoney Sean O director D - G-Gift Ordinary Shares 381 0
2023-05-24 CLARK KEVIN P Chairman and CEO D - S-Sale Ordinary Shares 4465 90.13
2023-05-24 CLARK KEVIN P Chairman and CEO D - S-Sale Ordinary Shares 2200 90.94
2023-05-24 CLARK KEVIN P Chairman and CEO D - G-Gift Ordinary Shares 10686 0
2023-05-25 CLARK KEVIN P Chairman and CEO D - S-Sale Ordinary Shares 2000 89.52
2023-05-25 CLARK KEVIN P Chairman and CEO D - S-Sale Ordinary Shares 4565 90.16
2023-05-25 CLARK KEVIN P Chairman and CEO D - S-Sale Ordinary Shares 100 90.97
2023-04-26 Pinczuk Ana G. director A - A-Award Ordinary Shares 2917 0
2023-04-25 Pinczuk Ana G. director D - F-InKind Ordinary Shares 296 102.32
2023-04-26 Parris Colin J. director A - A-Award Ordinary Shares 1867 0
2023-04-25 Parris Colin J. director D - F-InKind Ordinary Shares 405 102.32
2023-04-26 Ortberg Robert Kelly director A - A-Award Ordinary Shares 1750 0
2023-04-25 Ortberg Robert Kelly director D - F-InKind Ordinary Shares 250 102.32
2023-04-26 MEISTER PAUL M director A - A-Award Ordinary Shares 3598 0
2023-04-25 MEISTER PAUL M director D - F-InKind Ordinary Shares 394 102.32
2023-04-26 Mahoney Sean O director A - A-Award Ordinary Shares 1867 0
2023-04-25 Mahoney Sean O director D - F-InKind Ordinary Shares 267 102.32
2023-04-26 Janow Merit E director A - A-Award Ordinary Shares 1750 0
2023-04-25 Janow Merit E director D - F-InKind Ordinary Shares 334 102.32
2023-04-26 HOOLEY JOSEPH L director A - A-Award Ordinary Shares 3160 0
2023-04-25 HOOLEY JOSEPH L director D - F-InKind Ordinary Shares 331 102.32
2023-04-26 COOPER NANCY E director A - A-Award Ordinary Shares 1925 0
2023-04-27 COOPER NANCY E director D - S-Sale Ordinary Shares 669 103.35
2023-04-25 COOPER NANCY E director D - F-InKind Ordinary Shares 276 102.32
2023-04-26 CLEMMER RICHARD L director A - A-Award Ordinary Shares 1750 0
2023-04-25 CLEMMER RICHARD L director D - F-InKind Ordinary Shares 377 102.32
2023-04-11 CLARK KEVIN P Chairman and CEO D - S-Sale Ordinary Shares 5865 104.97
2023-04-11 CLARK KEVIN P Chairman and CEO D - S-Sale Ordinary Shares 800 105.6
2023-04-12 CLARK KEVIN P Chairman and CEO D - S-Sale Ordinary Shares 2722 104.14
2023-04-12 CLARK KEVIN P Chairman and CEO D - S-Sale Ordinary Shares 3643 105.29
2023-04-12 CLARK KEVIN P Chairman and CEO D - S-Sale Ordinary Shares 300 106.2
2023-04-11 CLARK KEVIN P Chairman and CEO D - G-Gift Ordinary Shares 66233 0
2023-03-08 CLARK KEVIN P Chairman and CEO D - S-Sale Ordinary Shares 3621 116.27
2023-03-08 CLARK KEVIN P Chairman and CEO D - S-Sale Ordinary Shares 3044 116.87
2023-03-09 CLARK KEVIN P Chairman and CEO D - S-Sale Ordinary Shares 2165 113.68
2023-03-09 CLARK KEVIN P Chairman and CEO D - S-Sale Ordinary Shares 1200 114.55
2023-03-09 CLARK KEVIN P Chairman and CEO D - S-Sale Ordinary Shares 1100 115.75
2023-03-09 CLARK KEVIN P Chairman and CEO D - S-Sale Ordinary Shares 2200 116.87
2023-03-06 Presley William T. SVP & COO & President, S&PS D - S-Sale Ordinary Shares 7000 120
2023-02-28 Velastegui Sophia SVP & Chief Product Officer A - A-Award Ordinary Shares 11211 0
2023-02-28 Velastegui Sophia SVP & Chief Product Officer A - A-Award Ordinary Shares 7475 0
2023-02-28 Velastegui Sophia SVP & Chief Product Officer D - F-InKind Ordinary Shares 3893 116.28
2023-02-28 Ramundo Katherine H SVP, CLO, CCO & Secretary A - A-Award Ordinary Shares 11721 0
2023-02-28 Ramundo Katherine H SVP, CLO, CCO & Secretary A - A-Award Ordinary Shares 7814 0
2023-02-28 Ramundo Katherine H SVP, CLO, CCO & Secretary A - A-Award Ordinary Shares 16987 0
2023-02-28 Ramundo Katherine H SVP, CLO, CCO & Secretary D - F-InKind Ordinary Shares 6405 116.28
2023-02-28 Presley William T. SVP & COO & President, S&PS A - A-Award Ordinary Shares 17836 0
2023-02-28 Presley William T. SVP & COO & President, S&PS A - A-Award Ordinary Shares 11891 0
2023-02-28 Presley William T. SVP & COO & President, S&PS D - F-InKind Ordinary Shares 5575 116.28
2023-02-28 Massaro Joseph R CFO and SVP, Business Ops A - A-Award Ordinary Shares 29302 0
2023-02-28 Massaro Joseph R CFO and SVP, Business Ops A - A-Award Ordinary Shares 19535 0
2023-02-28 Massaro Joseph R CFO and SVP, Business Ops D - F-InKind Ordinary Shares 20393 116.28
2023-02-28 Lyon Benjamin SVP & CTO A - A-Award Ordinary Shares 14778 0
2023-02-28 Lyon Benjamin SVP & CTO A - A-Award Ordinary Shares 9853 0
2023-02-28 Lyon Benjamin SVP & CTO A - A-Award Ordinary 67947 0
2023-02-28 Louissaint Obed D. SVP & Chief People Officer A - A-Award Ordinary Shares 15288 0
2023-02-28 Louissaint Obed D. SVP & Chief People Officer A - A-Award Ordinary Shares 10192 0
2023-02-28 Louissaint Obed D. SVP & Chief People Officer A - A-Award Ordinary Shares 67947 0
2023-02-28 De Vos Glen W. SVP, Transformation A - A-Award Ordinary Shares 6625 0
2023-02-28 De Vos Glen W. SVP, Transformation A - A-Award Ordinary Shares 4417 0
2023-02-28 De Vos Glen W. SVP, Transformation A - A-Award Ordinary Shares 5096 0
2023-02-28 De Vos Glen W. SVP, Transformation D - F-InKind Ordinary Shares 7900 116.28
2023-02-28 Cole Matthew M SVP & President, ASUX A - A-Award Ordinary Shares 7644 0
2023-02-28 Cole Matthew M SVP & President, ASUX A - A-Award Ordinary Shares 16562 0
2023-02-28 CLARK KEVIN P Chairman and CEO A - A-Award Ordinary Shares 66247 0
2023-02-28 CLARK KEVIN P Chairman and CEO A - A-Award Ordinary Shares 44166 0
2023-02-28 CLARK KEVIN P Chairman and CEO D - F-InKind Ordinary Shares 62006 116.28
2023-02-28 Brazier Allan J Chief Accounting Officer A - A-Award Ordinary Shares 3057 0
2023-02-28 Brazier Allan J Chief Accounting Officer A - A-Award Ordinary Shares 2039 0
2023-02-28 Brazier Allan J Chief Accounting Officer D - F-InKind Ordinary Shares 2235 116.28
2023-02-22 CLARK KEVIN P Chairman and CEO D - S-Sale Ordinary Shares 2255 115.14
2023-02-22 CLARK KEVIN P Chairman and CEO D - S-Sale Ordinary Shares 3748 116.03
2023-02-22 CLARK KEVIN P Chairman and CEO D - S-Sale Ordinary Shares 662 116.94
2023-02-23 CLARK KEVIN P Chairman and CEO D - S-Sale Ordinary Shares 1500 114.44
2023-02-23 CLARK KEVIN P Chairman and CEO D - S-Sale Ordinary Shares 2400 115.32
2023-02-23 CLARK KEVIN P Chairman and CEO D - S-Sale Ordinary Shares 2665 116.3
2023-02-23 CLARK KEVIN P Chairman and CEO D - S-Sale Ordinary Shares 100 116.94
2023-01-04 CLARK KEVIN P Chairman and CEO D - S-Sale Ordinary Shares 2298 94.87
2023-01-04 CLARK KEVIN P Chairman and CEO D - S-Sale Ordinary Shares 4367 95.59
2023-01-05 CLARK KEVIN P Chairman and CEO D - S-Sale Ordinary Shares 800 94.49
2023-01-05 CLARK KEVIN P Chairman and CEO D - S-Sale Ordinary Shares 5565 95.98
2023-01-05 CLARK KEVIN P Chairman and CEO D - S-Sale Ordinary Shares 300 96.51
2022-12-28 Lyon Benjamin SVP & CTO D - Ordinary Shares 0 0
2023-01-01 Louissaint Obed D. SVP & Chief People Officer D - Ordinary Shares 0 0
2023-01-03 Cole Matthew M SVP & President, ASUX D - Ordinary Shares 0 0
2022-12-13 CLARK KEVIN P Chairman and CEO D - S-Sale Ordinary Shares 2470 96.86
2022-12-13 CLARK KEVIN P Chairman and CEO D - S-Sale Ordinary Shares 3395 97.57
2022-12-13 CLARK KEVIN P Chairman and CEO D - S-Sale Ordinary Shares 500 98.85
2022-12-13 CLARK KEVIN P Chairman and CEO D - S-Sale Ordinary Shares 300 99.52
2022-12-14 CLARK KEVIN P Chairman and CEO D - S-Sale Ordinary Shares 2965 96.47
2022-12-14 CLARK KEVIN P Chairman and CEO D - S-Sale Ordinary Shares 3700 97.53
2022-11-29 CLARK KEVIN P Chairman and CEO D - S-Sale Ordinary Shares 4497 101.82
2022-11-29 CLARK KEVIN P Chairman and CEO D - S-Sale Ordinary Shares 2168 102.46
2022-11-30 CLARK KEVIN P Chairman and CEO D - S-Sale Ordinary Shares 2326 103.14
2022-11-30 CLARK KEVIN P Chairman and CEO D - S-Sale Ordinary Shares 1278 104.08
2022-11-30 CLARK KEVIN P Chairman and CEO D - S-Sale Ordinary Shares 1625 105.31
2022-11-30 CLARK KEVIN P Chairman and CEO D - S-Sale Ordinary Shares 1436 106.16
2022-10-18 CLARK KEVIN P Chairman and CEO D - S-Sale Ordinary Shares 2895 87.59
2022-10-18 CLARK KEVIN P Chairman and CEO D - S-Sale Ordinary Shares 3770 88.26
2022-10-19 CLARK KEVIN P Chairman and CEO D - S-Sale Ordinary Shares 4365 85.59
2022-10-19 CLARK KEVIN P Chairman and CEO D - S-Sale Ordinary Shares 1600 86.66
2022-10-19 CLARK KEVIN P Chairman and CEO D - S-Sale Ordinary Shares 700 87.47
2022-09-14 CLARK KEVIN P Chairman and CEO D - S-Sale Ordinary Shares 1500 96.27
2022-09-14 CLARK KEVIN P Chairman and CEO D - S-Sale Ordinary Shares 3665 97.06
2022-09-14 CLARK KEVIN P Chairman and CEO D - S-Sale Ordinary Shares 1500 97.72
2022-09-15 CLARK KEVIN P Chairman and CEO D - S-Sale Ordinary Shares 2034 96.99
2022-09-15 CLARK KEVIN P Chairman and CEO D - S-Sale Ordinary Shares 1100 98.33
2022-09-15 CLARK KEVIN P Chairman and CEO D - S-Sale Ordinary Shares 1831 99.28
2022-09-15 CLARK KEVIN P Chairman and CEO D - S-Sale Ordinary Shares 1200 100.28
2022-09-15 CLARK KEVIN P Chairman and CEO D - S-Sale Ordinary Shares 500 101.41
2022-09-01 Massaro Joseph R CFO and SVP, Business Ops D - S-Sale Ordinary Shares 1900 91.87
2022-08-23 CLARK KEVIN P Chairman and CEO D - S-Sale Ordinary Shares 700 97.12
2022-07-13 CLARK KEVIN P Chairman and CEO D - S-Sale Ordinary Shares 3578 85.84
2022-06-07 CLARK KEVIN P Chairman and CEO D - S-Sale Ordinary Shares 100 111.31
2022-06-06 Presley William T. SVP & President, S&PS D - S-Sale Ordinary Shares 2000 108.52
2022-05-11 CLARK KEVIN P Chairman and CEO D - S-Sale Ordinary Shares 100 93.39
2022-04-26 Pinczuk Ana G. A - A-Award Ordinary Shares 2893 0
2022-04-26 Pinczuk Ana G. D - F-InKind Ordinary Shares 173 102.51
2022-04-26 Parris Colin J. A - A-Award Ordinary Shares 3086 0
2022-04-26 Parris Colin J. D - F-InKind Ordinary Shares 93 102.51
2022-04-26 Ortberg Robert Kelly A - A-Award Ordinary Shares 1736 0
2022-04-26 Ortberg Robert Kelly D - F-InKind Ordinary Shares 160 102.51
2022-04-26 MEISTER PAUL M A - A-Award Ordinary Shares 3568 0
2022-04-26 MEISTER PAUL M D - F-InKind Ordinary Shares 187 102.51
2022-04-26 Mahoney Sean O A - A-Award Ordinary Shares 1852 0
2022-04-26 Mahoney Sean O D - F-InKind Ordinary Shares 160 102.51
2022-04-26 Janow Merit E A - A-Award Ordinary Shares 2315 0
2022-04-26 Janow Merit E D - F-InKind Ordinary Shares 213 102.51
2022-04-26 HOOLEY JOSEPH L A - A-Award Ordinary Shares 3134 0
2022-04-26 HOOLEY JOSEPH L D - F-InKind Ordinary Shares 194 102.51
2022-04-26 GUPTA RAJIV D - F-InKind Ordinary Shares 241 102.51
2022-04-26 DONOFRIO NICHOLAS M D - F-InKind Ordinary Shares 187 102.51
2022-04-26 COOPER NANCY E A - A-Award Ordinary Shares 1910 0
2022-04-26 COOPER NANCY E D - F-InKind Ordinary Shares 175 102.51
2022-04-26 CLEMMER RICHARD L A - A-Award Ordinary Shares 2893 0
2022-04-26 CLEMMER RICHARD L D - F-InKind Ordinary Shares 173 102.51
2022-04-13 CLARK KEVIN P President and CEO D - S-Sale Ordinary Shares 1790 110.9
2022-04-13 CLARK KEVIN P President and CEO D - G-Gift Ordinary Shares 68546 0
2022-03-15 CLARK KEVIN P President and CEO D - S-Sale Ordinary Shares 1864 116.64
2022-02-28 Velastegui Sophia SVP & Chief Product Officer A - A-Award Ordinary Shares 8660 0
2022-02-28 Velastegui Sophia SVP & Chief Product Officer A - A-Award Ordinary Shares 5774 0
2022-02-28 Velastegui Sophia SVP & Chief Product Officer A - A-Award Ordinary Shares 18042 0
2022-02-28 Trickett Mariya K. SVP and CHRO A - A-Award Ordinary Shares 7577 0
2022-02-28 Trickett Mariya K. SVP and CHRO A - X-InTheMoney Ordinary Shares 130 0
2022-02-28 Trickett Mariya K. SVP and CHRO D - D-Return Ordinary Shares 679 0
2022-02-28 Trickett Mariya K. SVP and CHRO A - A-Award Ordinary Shares 5052 0
2022-02-28 Trickett Mariya K. SVP and CHRO D - F-InKind Ordinary Shares 6601 129.44
2022-02-28 Trickett Mariya K. SVP and CHRO D - X-InTheMoney Dividend Equivalent Right 130 0
2022-02-28 Ramundo Katherine H SVP, CLO, CCO & Secretary A - A-Award Ordinary Shares 7794 0
2022-02-28 Ramundo Katherine H SVP, CLO, CCO & Secretary A - A-Award Ordinary Shares 5196 0
2022-02-28 Ramundo Katherine H SVP, CLO, CCO & Secretary D - F-InKind Ordinary Shares 5513 129.44
2022-02-28 Presley William T. SVP & President, S&PS A - A-Award Ordinary Shares 9093 0
2022-02-28 Presley William T. SVP & President, S&PS A - A-Award Ordinary Shares 6062 0
2022-02-28 Presley William T. SVP & President, S&PS A - X-InTheMoney Ordinary Shares 113 0
2022-02-28 Presley William T. SVP & President, S&PS D - D-Return Ordinary Shares 331 0
2022-02-28 Presley William T. SVP & President, S&PS D - F-InKind Ordinary Shares 5408 129.44
2022-02-28 Presley William T. SVP & President, S&PS D - X-InTheMoney Dividend Equivalent Right 113 0
2022-02-28 Massaro Joseph R CFO and SVP, Business Ops A - A-Award Ordinary Shares 21650 0
2022-02-28 Massaro Joseph R CFO and SVP, Business Ops A - X-InTheMoney Ordinary Shares 313 0
2022-02-28 Massaro Joseph R CFO and SVP, Business Ops D - D-Return Ordinary Shares 1655 0
2022-02-28 Massaro Joseph R CFO and SVP, Business Ops A - A-Award Ordinary Shares 14433 0
2022-02-28 Massaro Joseph R CFO and SVP, Business Ops D - F-InKind Ordinary Shares 16216 129.44
2022-02-28 Massaro Joseph R CFO and SVP, Business Ops D - X-InTheMoney Dividend Equivalent Right 313 0
2022-02-28 De Vos Glen W. SVP, CTO & President AS&UX A - A-Award Ordinary Shares 5413 0
2022-02-28 De Vos Glen W. SVP, CTO & President AS&UX A - A-Award Ordinary Shares 3608 0
2022-02-28 De Vos Glen W. SVP, CTO & President AS&UX A - X-InTheMoney Ordinary Shares 116 0
2022-02-28 De Vos Glen W. SVP, CTO & President AS&UX D - D-Return Ordinary Shares 607 0
2022-02-28 De Vos Glen W. SVP, CTO & President AS&UX A - A-Award Ordinary Shares 722 0
2022-02-28 De Vos Glen W. SVP, CTO & President AS&UX A - A-Award Ordinary Shares 4330 0
2022-02-28 De Vos Glen W. SVP, CTO & President AS&UX D - F-InKind Ordinary Shares 5650 129.44
2022-02-28 De Vos Glen W. SVP, CTO & President AS&UX D - X-InTheMoney Dividend Equivalent Right 116 0
2022-02-28 CLARK KEVIN P President and CEO A - A-Award Ordinary Shares 54125 0
2022-02-28 CLARK KEVIN P President and CEO A - X-InTheMoney Ordinary Shares 1091 0
2022-02-28 CLARK KEVIN P President and CEO D - D-Return Ordinary Shares 5793 0
2022-02-28 CLARK KEVIN P President and CEO A - A-Award Ordinary Shares 36083 0
2022-02-28 CLARK KEVIN P President and CEO D - F-InKind Ordinary Shares 54625 129.44
2022-02-28 CLARK KEVIN P President and CEO D - X-InTheMoney Dividend Equivalent Right 1091 0
2022-02-28 Brazier Allan J Chief Accounting Officer A - A-Award Ordinary Shares 2598 0
2022-02-28 Brazier Allan J Chief Accounting Officer A - X-InTheMoney Ordinary Shares 50 0
2022-02-28 Brazier Allan J Chief Accounting Officer D - D-Return Ordinary Shares 259 0
2022-02-28 Brazier Allan J Chief Accounting Officer A - A-Award Ordinary Shares 1732 0
2022-02-28 Brazier Allan J Chief Accounting Officer A - A-Award Ordinary Shares 722 0
2022-02-28 Brazier Allan J Chief Accounting Officer D - F-InKind Ordinary Shares 2505 129.44
2022-02-28 Brazier Allan J Chief Accounting Officer D - X-InTheMoney Dividend Equivalent Right 50 0
2022-02-09 CLARK KEVIN P President and CEO D - S-Sale Ordinary Shares 500 137.17
2022-02-09 CLARK KEVIN P President and CEO D - S-Sale Ordinary Share 900 138.06
2022-02-09 CLARK KEVIN P President and CEO D - S-Sale Ordinary Shares 4330 139.03
2022-02-09 CLARK KEVIN P President and CEO D - S-Sale Ordinary Shares 100 139.53
2022-02-10 CLARK KEVIN P President and CEO D - S-Sale Ordinary Shares 1300 135.69
2022-02-10 CLARK KEVIN P President and CEO D - S-Sale Ordinary Shares 730 136.39
2022-02-10 CLARK KEVIN P President and CEO D - S-Sale Ordinary Shares 500 137.57
2022-02-10 CLARK KEVIN P President and CEO D - S-Sale Ordinary Shares 800 138.65
2022-02-10 CLARK KEVIN P President and CEO D - S-Sale Ordinary Shares 2170 140.14
2022-02-10 CLARK KEVIN P President and CEO D - S-Sale Ordinary Shares 330 140.77
2022-02-01 Velastegui Sophia SVP & Chief Product Officer D - Ordinary Shares 0 0
2022-01-11 CLARK KEVIN P President and CEO D - S-Sale Ordinary Shares 1400 158.4
2022-01-11 CLARK KEVIN P President and CEO D - S-Sale Ordinary Share 3134 159.37
2022-01-11 CLARK KEVIN P President and CEO D - S-Sale Ordinary Shares 496 160.19
2022-01-11 CLARK KEVIN P President and CEO D - S-Sale Ordinary Shares 700 161.47
2022-01-11 CLARK KEVIN P President and CEO D - S-Sale Ordinary Shares 100 162.21
2022-01-12 CLARK KEVIN P President and CEO D - S-Sale Ordinary Shares 800 158.08
2022-01-12 CLARK KEVIN P President and CEO D - S-Sale Ordinary Shares 1800 159.35
2022-01-12 CLARK KEVIN P President and CEO D - S-Sale Ordinary Shares 2390 159.98
2022-01-12 CLARK KEVIN P President and CEO D - S-Sale Ordinary Shares 340 161.09
2022-01-12 CLARK KEVIN P President and CEO D - S-Sale Ordinary Shares 400 162.12
2022-01-12 CLARK KEVIN P President and CEO D - S-Sale Ordinary Shares 100 163.5
2021-12-16 Trickett Mariya K. SVP and CHRO D - S-Sale Ordinary Shares 4670 164.9
2021-12-15 CLARK KEVIN P President and CEO D - S-Sale Ordinary Shares 2826 159.28
2021-12-15 CLARK KEVIN P President and CEO D - S-Sale Ordinary Share 500 160.68
2021-12-15 CLARK KEVIN P President and CEO D - S-Sale Ordinary Shares 700 161.63
2021-12-15 CLARK KEVIN P President and CEO D - S-Sale Ordinary Shares 500 162.54
2021-12-15 CLARK KEVIN P President and CEO D - S-Sale Ordinary Shares 900 163.65
2021-12-15 CLARK KEVIN P President and CEO D - S-Sale Ordinary Shares 404 164.29
2021-12-16 CLARK KEVIN P President and CEO D - S-Sale Ordinary Shares 2281 162.46
2021-12-16 CLARK KEVIN P President and CEO D - S-Sale Ordinary Shares 1279 163.29
2021-12-16 CLARK KEVIN P President and CEO D - S-Sale Ordinary Shares 270 164.28
2021-12-16 CLARK KEVIN P President and CEO D - S-Sale Ordinary Shares 500 165.67
2021-12-16 CLARK KEVIN P President and CEO D - S-Sale Ordinary Shares 1200 166.9
2021-12-16 CLARK KEVIN P President and CEO D - S-Sale Ordinary Shares 300 167.64
2021-12-13 Presley William T. SVP & President, S&PS D - S-Sale Ordinary Shares 994 168.02
2021-11-09 CLARK KEVIN P President and CEO D - S-Sale Ordinary Shares 2829 172.13
2021-11-09 CLARK KEVIN P President and CEO D - S-Sale Ordinary Share 1601 172.73
2021-11-09 CLARK KEVIN P President and CEO D - S-Sale Ordinary Shares 800 173.83
2021-11-09 CLARK KEVIN P President and CEO D - S-Sale Ordinary Shares 600 174.75
2021-11-10 CLARK KEVIN P President and CEO D - S-Sale Ordinary Shares 1745 170.62
2021-11-10 CLARK KEVIN P President and CEO D - S-Sale Ordinary Shares 3049 171.4
2021-11-10 CLARK KEVIN P President and CEO D - S-Sale Ordinary Shares 936 172.17
2021-11-10 CLARK KEVIN P President and CEO D - S-Sale Ordinary Shares 100 173.22
2021-10-13 CLARK KEVIN P President and CEO D - S-Sale Ordinary Shares 700 161.24
2021-10-13 CLARK KEVIN P President and CEO D - S-Sale Ordinary Share 800 162.38
2021-10-13 CLARK KEVIN P President and CEO D - S-Sale Ordinary Shares 1400 163.62
2021-10-13 CLARK KEVIN P President and CEO D - S-Sale Ordinary Shares 2930 164.57
2021-10-14 CLARK KEVIN P President and CEO D - S-Sale Ordinary Shares 790 165.68
2021-10-14 CLARK KEVIN P President and CEO D - S-Sale Ordinary Shares 2510 166.71
2021-10-14 CLARK KEVIN P President and CEO D - S-Sale Ordinary Shares 2530 167.48
2021-09-15 Massaro Joseph R CFO and SVP, Business Ops D - S-Sale Ordinary Shares 1600 150.34
2021-09-15 CLARK KEVIN P President and CEO D - S-Sale Ordinary Shares 300 150.45
2021-09-15 CLARK KEVIN P President and CEO D - S-Sale Ordinary Shares 700 151.53
2021-09-15 CLARK KEVIN P President and CEO D - S-Sale Ordinary Shares 1100 152.63
2021-09-15 CLARK KEVIN P President and CEO D - S-Sale Ordinary Shares 1804 153.98
2021-09-15 CLARK KEVIN P President and CEO D - S-Sale Ordinary Shares 1926 154.55
2021-09-16 CLARK KEVIN P President and CEO D - S-Sale Ordinary Shares 1100 148.2
2021-09-16 CLARK KEVIN P President and CEO D - S-Sale Ordinary Shares 3627 149.24
2021-09-16 CLARK KEVIN P President and CEO D - S-Sale Ordinary Shares 803 149.96
2021-09-16 CLARK KEVIN P President and CEO D - S-Sale Ordinary Shares 200 151.18
2021-09-16 CLARK KEVIN P President and CEO D - S-Sale Ordinary Shares 100 152.2
2021-08-18 CLARK KEVIN P President and CEO D - S-Sale Ordinary Shares 1243 156.98
2021-08-18 CLARK KEVIN P President and CEO D - S-Sale Ordinary Shares 4400 158.11
2021-08-18 CLARK KEVIN P President and CEO D - S-Sale Ordinary Shares 187 158.67
2021-08-19 CLARK KEVIN P President and CEO D - S-Sale Ordinary Shares 600 150.79
2021-08-19 CLARK KEVIN P President and CEO D - S-Sale Ordinary Shares 1400 151.9
2021-08-19 CLARK KEVIN P President and CEO D - S-Sale Ordinary Shares 3670 152.86
2021-08-19 CLARK KEVIN P President and CEO D - S-Sale Ordinary Shares 160 153.54
2021-07-26 CLARK KEVIN P President and CEO D - G-Gift Ordinary Shares 60717 0
2021-07-13 CLARK KEVIN P President and CEO D - S-Sale Ordinary Shares 5376 157.37
2021-07-13 CLARK KEVIN P President and CEO D - S-Sale Ordinary Shares 454 157.93
2021-07-14 CLARK KEVIN P President and CEO D - S-Sale Ordinary Shares 2448 155.25
2021-07-14 CLARK KEVIN P President and CEO D - S-Sale Ordinary Shares 2482 155.66
2021-07-14 CLARK KEVIN P President and CEO D - S-Sale Ordinary Shares 400 156.98
2021-07-14 CLARK KEVIN P President and CEO D - S-Sale Ordinary Shares 500 158.24
2021-07-02 Brazier Allan J Chief Accounting Officer D - S-Sale Ordinary Shares 8500 160
2021-06-15 CLARK KEVIN P President and CEO D - S-Sale Ordinary Shares 5830 156.9
2021-06-16 CLARK KEVIN P President and CEO D - S-Sale Ordinary Shares 2494 154.34
2021-06-16 CLARK KEVIN P President and CEO D - S-Sale Ordinary Shares 2425 156.03
2021-06-16 CLARK KEVIN P President and CEO D - S-Sale Ordinary Shares 911 156.77
2021-06-10 Presley William T. SVP & President, S&PS D - S-Sale Ordinary Shares 4000 159.61
2021-04-30 Janow Merit E director A - A-Award Ordinary Shares 1474 0
2021-04-30 Janow Merit E director D - Ordinary Shares 0 0
2021-04-29 ZIMMERMAN LAWRENCE A director D - F-InKind Ordinary Shares 636 144.54
2021-04-30 Pinczuk Ana G. director A - A-Award Ordinary Shares 1842 0
2021-04-29 Pinczuk Ana G. director D - F-InKind Ordinary Shares 543 144.54
2021-04-30 Parris Colin J. director A - A-Award Ordinary Shares 1106 0
2021-04-29 Parris Colin J. director D - F-InKind Ordinary Shares 601 144.54
2021-04-30 Ortberg Robert Kelly director A - A-Award Ordinary Shares 1106 0
2021-04-29 Ortberg Robert Kelly director D - F-InKind Ordinary Shares 601 144.54
2021-04-30 MEISTER PAUL M director A - A-Award Ordinary Shares 1946 0
2021-04-29 MEISTER PAUL M director D - F-InKind Ordinary Shares 543 144.54
2021-04-30 Mahoney Sean O director A - A-Award Ordinary Shares 1106 0
2021-01-07 Mahoney Sean O director D - G-Gift Ordinary Shares 360 0
2021-04-29 Mahoney Sean O director D - F-InKind Ordinary Shares 601 144.54
2021-04-30 HOOLEY JOSEPH L director A - A-Award Ordinary Shares 1842 0
2021-04-29 HOOLEY JOSEPH L director D - F-InKind Ordinary Shares 543 144.54
2021-04-30 GUPTA RAJIV director A - A-Award Ordinary Shares 2169 0
2021-04-29 GUPTA RAJIV director D - F-InKind Ordinary Shares 1205 144.54
2021-04-30 DONOFRIO NICHOLAS M director A - A-Award Ordinary Shares 1946 0
2021-04-29 DONOFRIO NICHOLAS M director D - F-InKind Ordinary Shares 579 144.54
2021-04-30 COOPER NANCY E director A - A-Award Ordinary Shares 1210 0
2021-04-29 COOPER NANCY E director D - F-InKind Ordinary Shares 660 144.54
2021-04-30 CLEMMER RICHARD L director A - A-Award Ordinary Shares 1842 0
2021-04-29 CLEMMER RICHARD L director D - F-InKind Ordinary Shares 337 144.54
2021-03-22 De Vos Glen W. SVP & CTO D - S-Sale Ordinary Shares 2056 146.23
2021-03-15 Ramundo Katherine H SVP, CLO, CCO & Secretary A - A-Award Ordinary Shares 6411 0
2021-03-15 Ramundo Katherine H SVP, CLO, CCO & Secretary A - A-Award Ordinary Shares 32326 0
2021-03-15 Ramundo Katherine H SVP, CLO, CCO & Secretary D - Ordinary Shares 0 0
2021-02-28 Trickett Mariya K. SVP and CHRO A - X-InTheMoney Ordinary Shares 296 0
2021-02-28 Trickett Mariya K. SVP and CHRO A - A-Award Ordinary Shares 6151 0
2021-02-28 Trickett Mariya K. SVP and CHRO D - D-Return Ordinary Shares 554 0
2021-02-28 Trickett Mariya K. SVP and CHRO A - A-Award Ordinary Shares 4101 0
2021-02-28 Trickett Mariya K. SVP and CHRO D - F-InKind Ordinary Shares 9707 149.84
2021-02-28 Trickett Mariya K. SVP and CHRO D - X-InTheMoney Dividend Equivalent Right 296 0
2021-02-28 SHERBIN DAVID M SVP, GC & Secretary A - X-InTheMoney Ordinary Shares 281 0
2021-02-28 SHERBIN DAVID M SVP, GC & Secretary D - D-Return Ordinary Shares 586 0
2021-02-28 SHERBIN DAVID M SVP, GC & Secretary D - F-InKind Ordinary Shares 6882 149.84
2021-02-28 SHERBIN DAVID M SVP, GC & Secretary D - X-InTheMoney Dividend Equivalent Right 281 0
2021-02-28 Presley William T. SVP & President, S&PS A - A-Award Ordinary Shares 10153 0
2021-02-28 Presley William T. SVP & President, S&PS A - A-Award Ordinary Shares 6770 0
2021-02-28 Presley William T. SVP & President, S&PS A - X-InTheMoney Ordinary Shares 55 0
2021-02-28 Presley William T. SVP & President, S&PS D - F-InKind Ordinary Shares 2273 149.84
2021-02-28 Presley William T. SVP & President, S&PS D - X-InTheMoney Dividend Equivalent Right 55 0
2021-02-28 Paja David SVP & President, AS&UX A - A-Award Ordinary Shares 8592 0
2021-02-28 Paja David SVP & President, AS&UX A - X-InTheMoney Ordinary Shares 293 0
2021-02-28 Paja David SVP & President, AS&UX D - D-Return Ordinary Shares 606 0
2021-02-28 Paja David SVP & President, AS&UX A - A-Award Ordinary Shares 5728 0
2021-02-28 Paja David SVP & President, AS&UX D - F-InKind Ordinary Shares 8063 149.84
2021-02-28 Paja David SVP & President, AS&UX D - X-InTheMoney Dividend Equivalent Right 293 0
2021-02-28 Massaro Joseph R CFO and SVP, Business Ops A - A-Award Ordinary Shares 16597 0
2021-02-28 Massaro Joseph R CFO and SVP, Business Ops A - X-InTheMoney Ordinary Shares 490 0
2021-02-28 Massaro Joseph R CFO and SVP, Business Ops D - D-Return Ordinary Shares 1011 0
2021-02-28 Massaro Joseph R CFO and SVP, Business Ops A - A-Award Ordinary Shares 11066 0
2021-02-28 Massaro Joseph R CFO and SVP, Business Ops D - F-InKind Ordinary Shares 12674 149.84
2021-02-28 Massaro Joseph R CFO and SVP, Business Ops D - X-InTheMoney Dividend Equivalent Right 490 0
2021-02-28 De Vos Glen W. SVP & CTO A - A-Award Ordinary Shares 4725 0
2021-02-28 De Vos Glen W. SVP & CTO A - X-InTheMoney Ordinary Shares 214 0
2021-02-28 De Vos Glen W. SVP & CTO A - A-Award Ordinary Shares 3151 0
2021-02-28 De Vos Glen W. SVP & CTO D - F-InKind Ordinary Shares 5199 149.84
2021-02-28 De Vos Glen W. SVP & CTO D - X-InTheMoney Dividend Equivalent Right 214 0
2021-02-28 CLARK KEVIN P President and CEO A - A-Award Ordinary Shares 44910 0
2021-02-28 CLARK KEVIN P President and CEO A - X-InTheMoney Ordinary Shares 1940 0
2021-02-28 CLARK KEVIN P President and CEO D - D-Return Ordinary Shares 4043 0
2021-02-28 CLARK KEVIN P President and CEO A - A-Award Ordinary Shares 29941 0
2021-02-28 CLARK KEVIN P President and CEO D - F-InKind Ordinary Shares 48387 149.84
2021-02-28 CLARK KEVIN P President and CEO D - X-InTheMoney Dividend Equivalent Right 1940 0
2021-02-28 Brazier Allan J Chief Accounting Officer A - A-Award Ordinary Shares 2050 0
2021-02-28 Brazier Allan J Chief Accounting Officer A - X-InTheMoney Ordinary Shares 93 0
2021-02-28 Brazier Allan J Chief Accounting Officer A - A-Award Ordinary Shares 1368 0
2021-02-28 Brazier Allan J Chief Accounting Officer D - F-InKind Ordinary Shares 2312 149.84
2021-02-28 Brazier Allan J Chief Accounting Officer D - X-InTheMoney Dividend Equivalent Right 93 0
2020-12-31 SHERBIN DAVID M officer - 0 0
2020-12-31 Mahoney Sean O - 0 0
2020-12-31 CLARK KEVIN P President and CEO I - Ordinary Shares 0 0
2020-11-02 Massaro Joseph R CFO and SVP, Business Ops D - S-Sale Ordinary Shares 4317 96.9106
2020-09-28 SHERBIN DAVID M SVP, GC & Secretary D - S-Sale Ordinary Shares 11000 90
2020-09-15 Presley William T. SVP & President, S&PS D - Ordinary Shares 0 0
2020-09-15 Presley William T. SVP & President, S&PS D - Dividend Equivalent Right 170.1 0
2020-07-01 CLEMMER RICHARD L director A - A-Award Ordinary Shares 2929 0
2020-07-01 CLEMMER RICHARD L director D - Ordinary Shares 0 0
2020-04-23 ZIMMERMAN LAWRENCE A director A - A-Award Ordinary Shares 4611 0
2020-04-22 ZIMMERMAN LAWRENCE A director A - X-InTheMoney Ordinary Shares 22 0
2020-04-22 ZIMMERMAN LAWRENCE A director D - F-InKind Ordinary Shares 159 60.5
2020-04-22 ZIMMERMAN LAWRENCE A director D - X-InTheMoney Dividend Equivalent Right 22 0
2020-04-23 Pinczuk Ana G. director A - A-Award Ordinary Shares 4364 0
2020-04-22 Pinczuk Ana G. director A - X-InTheMoney Ordinary Shares 20 0
2020-04-22 Pinczuk Ana G. director D - F-InKind Ordinary Shares 143 60.5
2020-04-22 Pinczuk Ana G. director D - X-InTheMoney Dividend Equivalent Right 20 0
2020-04-23 Parris Colin J. director A - A-Award Ordinary Shares 4364 0
2020-04-22 Parris Colin J. director A - X-InTheMoney Ordinary Shares 20 0
2020-04-22 Parris Colin J. director D - F-InKind Ordinary Shares 143 60.5
2020-04-22 Parris Colin J. director D - X-InTheMoney Dividend Equivalent Right 20 0
2020-04-23 Ortberg Robert Kelly director A - A-Award Ordinary Shares 4364 0
2020-04-22 Ortberg Robert Kelly director A - X-InTheMoney Ordinary Shares 20 0
2020-04-22 Ortberg Robert Kelly director D - F-InKind Ordinary Shares 143 60.5
2020-04-22 Ortberg Robert Kelly director D - X-InTheMoney Dividend Equivalent Right 20 0
2020-04-23 MEISTER PAUL M director A - A-Award Ordinary Shares 4364 0
2020-04-22 MEISTER PAUL M director A - X-InTheMoney Ordinary Shares 18 0
2020-04-22 MEISTER PAUL M director D - F-InKind Ordinary Shares 181 60.5
2020-04-22 MEISTER PAUL M director D - X-InTheMoney Dividend Equivalent Right 18 0
2020-04-23 Mahoney Sean O director A - A-Award Ordinary Shares 4364 0
2020-04-22 Mahoney Sean O director A - X-InTheMoney Ordinary Shares 20 0
2020-04-22 Mahoney Sean O director D - F-InKind Ordinary Shares 143 60.5
2020-04-22 Mahoney Sean O director D - X-InTheMoney Dividend Equivalent Right 20 0
2020-04-23 Mahoney Sean O director A - A-Award Ordinary Shares 4364 0
2020-04-22 Mahoney Sean O director A - X-InTheMoney Ordinary Shares 20 0
2020-04-22 Mahoney Sean O director D - F-InKind Ordinary Shares 143 60.5
2020-04-22 Mahoney Sean O director D - X-InTheMoney Dividend Equivalent Right 20 0
2020-04-23 HOOLEY JOSEPH L director A - A-Award Ordinary Shares 4364 0
2020-04-22 HOOLEY JOSEPH L director A - X-InTheMoney Ordinary Shares 2 0
2020-04-22 HOOLEY JOSEPH L director D - F-InKind Ordinary Shares 28 60.5
2020-04-22 HOOLEY JOSEPH L director D - X-InTheMoney Dividend Equivalent Right 2 0
2020-04-23 GUPTA RAJIV director A - A-Award Ordinary Shares 8563 0
2020-04-22 GUPTA RAJIV director A - X-InTheMoney Ordinary Shares 53 0
2020-04-22 GUPTA RAJIV director D - F-InKind Ordinary Shares 561 60.5
2020-04-22 GUPTA RAJIV director D - X-InTheMoney Dividend Equivalent Right 53 0
2020-04-23 DONOFRIO NICHOLAS M director A - A-Award Ordinary Shares 4611 0
2020-04-22 DONOFRIO NICHOLAS M director A - X-InTheMoney Ordinary Shares 22 0
2020-04-22 DONOFRIO NICHOLAS M director D - F-InKind Ordinary Shares 159 60.5
2020-04-22 DONOFRIO NICHOLAS M director D - X-InTheMoney Dividend Equivalent Right 22 0
2020-04-22 DELLAQUILA FRANK J director A - X-InTheMoney Ordinary Shares 27 0
2020-04-22 DELLAQUILA FRANK J director D - F-InKind Ordinary Shares 211 60.5
2020-04-22 DELLAQUILA FRANK J director D - X-InTheMoney Dividend Equivalent Right 27 0
2020-04-23 COOPER NANCY E director A - A-Award Ordinary Shares 4776 0
2020-04-22 COOPER NANCY E director A - X-InTheMoney Ordinary Shares 22 0
2020-04-22 COOPER NANCY E director D - F-InKind Ordinary Shares 170 60.5
2020-04-22 COOPER NANCY E director D - X-InTheMoney Dividend Equivalent Right 22 0
2020-02-28 Trickett Mariya K. SVP and CHRO A - A-Award Ordinary Shares 13038 0
2020-02-28 Trickett Mariya K. SVP and CHRO A - A-Award Ordinary Shares 4346 0
2020-02-28 Trickett Mariya K. SVP and CHRO A - X-InTheMoney Ordinary Shares 64 0
2020-02-28 Trickett Mariya K. SVP and CHRO D - F-InKind Ordinary Shares 1976 78.11
2020-02-28 Trickett Mariya K. SVP and CHRO D - X-InTheMoney Dividend Equivalent Right 64 0
2020-02-28 SHERBIN DAVID M SVP, GC & Secretary A - A-Award Ordinary Shares 13472 0
2020-02-28 SHERBIN DAVID M SVP, GC & Secretary A - A-Award Ordinary Shares 9555.64 0
2020-02-28 SHERBIN DAVID M SVP, GC & Secretary A - X-InTheMoney Ordinary Shares 986.36 0
2020-02-28 SHERBIN DAVID M SVP, GC & Secretary A - A-Award Ordinary Shares 4491 0
2020-02-28 SHERBIN DAVID M SVP, GC & Secretary D - F-InKind Ordinary Shares 14175 78.11
2020-02-28 SHERBIN DAVID M SVP, GC & Secretary D - X-InTheMoney Dividend Equivalent Right 986.36 0
2020-02-28 Paja David SVP & Segment President A - A-Award Ordinary Shares 19122 0
2020-02-28 Paja David SVP & Segment President A - A-Award Ordinary Shares 9555.64 0
2020-02-28 Paja David SVP & Segment President A - X-InTheMoney Ordinary Shares 1293.36 0
2020-02-28 Paja David SVP & Segment President A - A-Award Ordinary Shares 6374 0
2020-02-28 Paja David SVP & Segment President D - F-InKind Ordinary Shares 19808 78.11
2020-02-28 Paja David SVP & Segment President D - X-InTheMoney Dividend Equivalent Right 1293.36 0
2020-02-28 Massaro Joseph R SVP and CFO A - A-Award Ordinary Shares 32159 0
2020-02-28 Massaro Joseph R SVP and CFO A - A-Award Ordinary Shares 12968.2 0
2020-02-28 Massaro Joseph R SVP and CFO A - A-Award Ordinary Shares 10720 0
2020-02-28 Massaro Joseph R SVP and CFO A - X-InTheMoney Ordinary Shares 1370.8 0
2020-02-28 Massaro Joseph R SVP and CFO D - F-InKind Ordinary Shares 20500 78.11
2020-02-28 Massaro Joseph R SVP and CFO D - X-InTheMoney Dividend Equivalent Right 1370.8 0
2020-02-28 De Vos Glen W. SVP & CTO A - A-Award Ordinary Shares 9996 0
2020-02-28 De Vos Glen W. SVP & CTO A - A-Award Ordinary Shares 5119.43 0
2020-02-28 De Vos Glen W. SVP & CTO A - A-Award Ordinary Shares 3332 0
2020-02-28 De Vos Glen W. SVP & CTO A - X-InTheMoney Ordinary Shares 525.57 0
2020-02-28 De Vos Glen W. SVP & CTO D - F-InKind Ordinary Shares 7570 78.11
2020-02-28 De Vos Glen W. SVP & CTO D - X-InTheMoney Dividend Equivalent Right 525.57 0
2020-02-28 CLARK KEVIN P President and CEO A - A-Award Ordinary Shares 95608 0
2020-02-28 CLARK KEVIN P President and CEO A - A-Award Ordinary Shares 64841.59 0
2020-02-28 CLARK KEVIN P President and CEO A - A-Award Ordinary Shares 31870 0
2020-02-28 CLARK KEVIN P President and CEO A - X-InTheMoney Ordinary Shares 6519.41 0
2020-02-28 CLARK KEVIN P President and CEO D - F-InKind Ordinary Shares 94550 78.11
2020-02-28 CLARK KEVIN P President and CEO D - X-InTheMoney Dividend Equivalent Right 6519.41 0
2020-02-28 Brazier Allan J Chief Accounting Officer A - A-Award Ordinary Shares 5650 0
2020-02-28 Brazier Allan J Chief Accounting Officer A - A-Award Ordinary Shares 1956.44 0
2020-02-28 Brazier Allan J Chief Accounting Officer A - X-InTheMoney Ordinary Shares 263.56 0
2020-02-28 Brazier Allan J Chief Accounting Officer A - A-Award Ordinary Shares 1884 0
2020-02-28 Brazier Allan J Chief Accounting Officer D - F-InKind Ordinary Shares 4036 78.11
2020-02-28 Brazier Allan J Chief Accounting Officer D - X-InTheMoney Dividend Equivalent Right 263.56 0
2020-02-19 ZIMMERMAN LAWRENCE A director A - A-Award Dividend Equivalent Right 4.811 0
2020-02-19 Trickett Mariya K. SVP and CHRO A - A-Award Dividend Equivalent Right 92.172 0
2020-02-19 SHERBIN DAVID M SVP, GC & Secretary A - A-Award Dividend Equivalent Right 151.938 0
2020-02-19 Pinczuk Ana G. director A - A-Award Dividend Equivalent Right 4.551 0
2020-02-19 Parris Colin J. director A - A-Award Dividend Equivalent Right 4.551 0
2020-02-19 Paja David SVP & Segment President A - A-Award Dividend Equivalent Right 179.577 0
2020-02-19 Ortberg Robert Kelly director A - A-Award Dividend Equivalent Right 4.551 0
2020-02-19 MEISTER PAUL M director A - A-Award Dividend Equivalent Right 5.795 0
2020-02-19 Massaro Joseph R SVP and CFO A - A-Award Dividend Equivalent Right 249.807 0
2020-02-19 Mahoney Sean O director A - A-Award Dividend Equivalent Right 4.551 0
2020-02-19 HOOLEY JOSEPH L director A - A-Award Dividend Equivalent Right 1.039 0
2020-02-19 GUPTA RAJIV director A - A-Award Dividend Equivalent Right 11.907 0
2020-02-19 DONOFRIO NICHOLAS M director A - A-Award Dividend Equivalent Right 4.811 0
2020-02-19 DELLAQUILA FRANK J director A - A-Award Dividend Equivalent Right 6.068 0
2020-02-19 De Vos Glen W. SVP & CTO A - A-Award Dividend Equivalent Right 95.532 0
2020-02-19 COOPER NANCY E director A - A-Award Dividend Equivalent Right 4.982 0
2020-02-19 CLARK KEVIN P President and CEO A - A-Award Dividend Equivalent Right 1026.369 0
2020-02-19 Brazier Allan J Chief Accounting Officer A - A-Award Dividend Equivalent Right 45.035 0
2020-01-15 De Vos Glen W. SVP & CTO D - S-Sale Ordinary Shares 2700 88.73
2020-01-08 HOOLEY JOSEPH L director A - A-Award Ordinary Shares 428 0
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Transcripts
Operator:
Good day and welcome to the Aptiv Q2 2024 Earnings Call. Today's conference is being recorded. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Jane Wu, Vice President of Investor Relations and Corporate Development. Please go ahead.
Jane Wu:
Thank you, Jess. Good morning and thank you for joining Aptiv's second quarter 2024 earnings conference call. The press release and related tables, along with the slide presentation, can be found on the Investor Relations portion of our website at aptiv.com. Today's review of our financials exclude amortization, restructuring, and other special items, and will address the continuing operations of Aptiv. The reconciliation between GAAP and non-GAAP measures for our second quarter results as well as our 2024 outlook are included at the back of the slide presentation and the earnings press release. During today's call, we will be providing certain forward-looking information that reflects Aptiv's current view of future financial performance and may be materially different for reasons that we cite in our Form 10-K and other SEC filings. Joining us today will be Kevin Clark, Aptiv's Chairman and CEO; and Joe Massaro, Vice Chair and Chief Financial Officer. Kevin will provide a strategic update on the business, and Joe will cover the financial results in more detail before we open the call to Q&A. With that, I'd like to turn the call over to Kevin Clark.
Kevin Clark:
Thanks, Jane and thanks, everyone, for joining us this morning. Let's begin on Slide 3. Looking at the second quarter, we delivered record earnings and EPS, reflecting solid execution across the company as well as lower supply chain disruption costs, completion of the restructuring of the Motional joint venture, and lower share count. The strong earnings 180 basis points of operating margin expansion and 26% EPS growth was in spite of significant revenue headwinds from select customers, which Joe will provide more detail on later. These headwinds were partially offset by strong ADAS revenue growth in North America and Europe as well as double-digit revenue growth with the Chinese local OEMs. Our cash flow performance continued to be strong, positioning us to repurchase over $400 million of stock during the quarter. Building on that momentum, this morning, we announced a new $5 billion share repurchase authorization, which includes an accelerated share repurchase plan. reflecting our view that our stock is undervalued and does not reflect our significant market opportunities. Joe and I will provide more detail on the announcement later in the presentation. And lastly, we released our annual sustainability report, which provides an update on Aptiv's commitment to not only achieving our sustainability goals, but assisting our customers in achieving their goals as well. Moving to Slide 4. During the second quarter, we booked $4.3 billion in new business awards, bringing the year-to-date total to over $17 billion, putting us on track to achieve our full year target of $35 billion. Advanced Safety & User Experience bookings in the quarter totaled $900 million, driven by continued strong momentum in ADAS as well as awards across Wind River's product portfolio in the A&D, telco, industrial, and automotive markets. bringing year-to-date bookings to nearly $3.5 billion. Signal & Power Solutions new business bookings totaled $3.4 billion in the quarter and included an Electrical Architecture award with a leading Chinese local OEM on an export vehicle platform as well as a program extension with a global European-based commercial vehicle OEM, bringing year-to-date bookings to almost $14 billion. New business bookings in China across both segments continue to track to the changing customer landscape and market share gains made by the local OEMs. We Year-to-date, bookings with the Chinese local OEMs totaled over $1.8 billion, an increase of 27% over last year. Turning to our Advanced Safety and User Experience segment on Slide 5. The segment achieved record revenues and earnings during the quarter, reflecting the strength of our product portfolio as well as the efficiency of our operations. We continue to broaden our customer mix by leveraging our industry-leading ADAS portfolio. We booked a new ADAS program with a Chinese local OEM that utilizes the local SoC solution which customers in the China market are increasingly requiring as well as a radar award with a global Japanese OEM, representing the fifth RADAR program we've been awarded by Japanese customer over the last 12 months bringing total radar bookings with this customer segment to almost $1.1 billion. Revenue increased 2% to over $1.5 billion in the quarter as Aptiv's safety revenues increased mid-teens, partially offset by user experience revenues, which were impacted by significantly lower multinational OEM production in China. Operating income totaled a record $170 million, representing margins of 10.9%. As discussed during our last earnings call, supply chains have stabilized, which has led to a significant reduction in disruption costs. And as I mentioned, our China semiconductor sourcing initiative continues to gain traction with Chinese local OEMs and more global OEMs are requesting that we present them with similar options for both current and future programs providing incremental savings opportunities for our customers while also reducing our material costs and improving our profitability. Engineering expense also declined during the quarter, almost $20 million versus the same period last year, bringing the ratio of engineering to sales down 20 basis points, a trend that we're confident will continue. This has been the result of several efficiency initiatives, including the adoption of Wind River Studio for software development on new OEM programs, the rotation of software engineering activities to our tech centers in best cost countries and a reduction in advanced development activities to reflect changing market conditions. Moving to the next slide for an update on Wind River. As we discussed at our recent Wind River and software teach-ins, the digital transformation that reshape the consumer ecosystem is now driving change across other end markets. The strength of Wind River solutions to support that transformation is evident in our recent commercial awards across multiple end markets, totaling nearly $200 million year-to-date. This includes $90 million of aerospace and defense bookings where the need for certified mixed criticality software is driving demand for solutions such as VxWorks and Wind River Helix. In telco, the adoption of vRAN and O-RAN favors our open cloud-native solutions, resulting in $50 million in bookings year-to-date. And in industrial and automotive, the growth in connected software-defined devices, which are increasingly deploying AI at the edge, continues to present opportunities for Wind River's full portfolio as reflected in over $55 million in bookings year-to-date. To support the development, deployment and operation of these intelligent edge solutions, we're gaining commercial traction with Wind River Studio developer. During the quarter, we announced at three of the world's leading software engineering service providers are adopting studio developer. And as I mentioned, Aptiv's own adoption has meaningfully improved our software quality and increase the efficiency of our software development process. Lastly, Wind River just announced, it is the prime sponsor of the Elixir project in open source, Debian-based enterprise-grade Linux solution for the intelligent edge. AWS, Intel, Capgemini, Super Micro and SAIC have joined Wind River as project supporters and we will share more regarding the commercial opportunities associated with us in coming months. Turning to our Signal and Power Solutions segment on Slide 7. Revenues in the segment declined 3% during the quarter, principally the result of the reduction in production schedules by select customers, significantly impacting our electrical distribution systems business, which had revenues declined high single digits. Engineered Components grew low single digits in the quarter with solid revenue growth for traditional interconnect and specialty products in the automotive market and strong growth in the A&D and space markets, which is partially offset by a slowdown in orders from automotive Tier 1s. As I mentioned previously, Signal and Power Solutions booked approximately $3.4 billion in customer awards. We continue to diversify future revenues with Conquest Awards, including multiple engineered component awards for high-speed cable assemblies, high-end low-voltage interconnects and power distribution units with a Korean OEM. A high-voltage charging award with a Japanese OEM in North America, our fourth award to date that meets the North American charging standard. And lastly, our first grid energy storage award and although relatively small, we believe that this is just the start and that the energy storage systems represent an attractive end market for Signal and Power business. Operating income totaled $436 million, representing margins of 12.4% and reflecting strong operating performance resulting from lower supply chain disruption costs as well as manufacturing and engineering performance. We're aligning our manufacturing capacity in this segment across all regions to the lower OEM vehicle production schedules and continue to work closely with our OEM customers to address the labor situation in Mexico. Looking at Signal and Power in more detail. We wanted provide an update on our Engineered Components product line on Slide 8. Aptiv is a market leader in providing highly engineered, ruggedized and mission-critical interconnect, cable management and fastening solutions for automotive and industrial end markets. These solutions have a low cost relative to the overall bill of materials, but a high cost of failure and our integral to the safe and efficient distribution of power and data. Breaking it down further. Aptiv's Connection Systems business, which will have over $4 billion in revenue this year, is the number two global provider of automotive and commercial vehicle interconnect solutions. HellermannTyton is the number one of cable management and fastening solutions globally and is now almost a $2 billion business. Half of the revenue is automotive, and the other half of the business serves non-automotive end markets. Lastly, Winchester Interconnect provides highly specialized advanced interconnects and cable assemblies for A&D, commercial space, and other industrial end markets. Both HellermannTyton and Winchester provide access to growing markets benefiting from the same industry mega trends and customer needs in automotive and they're key to both our growth and diversification strategies, reducing our exposure to light vehicle production while strengthening through cycle resiliency. Moving to Slide 9. The global trends that included transition to electric power, edge to cloud connectivity and the path to higher levels of software and automation continue with some regions evolving faster than others. And these macro themes have been the tailwind for the safe, green and connected trends that have shaped the automotive industry over the last decade. And we strongly believe Aptiv remains well positioned to benefit from these trends. While the pace of EV adoption may be slower than recently anticipated, the demand for electrified vehicles that generate lower CO2 emissions continues to grow. Consumer demand for advanced safety solutions that meet global regulatory and rating agency standards remain strong and demand for edge to cloud connectivity that enables more intelligent solutions continues to grow. Despite some near-term challenges, our customers remain committed to making vehicles more safe, more green and more connected and require our expertise and assistance to develop optimized solutions that balance the trade-offs between performance and cost. And in cases where customers have or considering delaying their original next-gen technology adoption plans, we're being presented with several incremental near and midterm opportunities to enhance existing solutions. So OEMs can remain competitive in the market by addressing consumer demand for new features and applications that are more efficient, cost-effective and compliant with regulations. Moving to Slide 10. As the world continues to become more electrified and software-defined, we're uniquely positioned to enable this transition for our customers and are confident in our ability to meaningfully grow earnings and cash flow and deliver significant value to our shareholders and strongly believe that Aptiv shares are an attractive investment opportunity. Accordingly, our Board has approved a $5 billion share repurchase authorization including a $3 billion accelerated share repurchase program. The total authorization represents over 25% of our current market cap and is incremental to the almost $9 billion we returned to shareholders since our IPO in 2011. We're very excited about Aptiv's long-term growth prospects and believe that repurchasing our stock is a great investment. And given the strength of our financial performance, we can execute this repurchase program while continuing to invest in our portfolio of advanced technologies. With that, I'll now turn the call over to Joe.
Joseph Massaro:
Thanks, Kevin, and good morning, everyone. Starting with the second quarter on Slide 11. Aptiv delivered strong operating performance in the quarter, reflecting execution of our performance initiatives as well as our continued focus on costs, resulting in operating margin improvement of 180 basis points over the prior year. Revenue was $5.1 billion, down 2% or 1% below underlying global vehicle production which was down 1% in the quarter. Revenue growth was primarily impacted by lower production volumes at select customers, including a European OEM with a large truck and SUV presence in North America, a global EV-only OEM and two multinational OEMs in China that are experiencing significantly lower production volumes. These customers represented the majority of the revenue shortfall in the second quarter and as I will discuss shortly, we are lowering our full year revenue outlook. Despite the top line pressure, adjusted EBITDA and operating income were both quarterly records at $788 million and $606 million, respectively. EBITDA margins expanded 220 basis points over prior year as our performance and cost actions helped reduce the decremental impact of lower revenues. FX and commodities were a $17 million headwind in the quarter. Earnings per share in the quarter was $1.58, an increase of 26% from the prior year, including the benefit of higher earnings, completion of the Motional JV transaction, a $0.12 benefit in the quarter as well as benefit of a lower share count, partially offset by higher taxes. Operating cash flow was strong, totaling $643 million, capital expenditures were $226 million and share repurchases totaled $434 million. Moving to Slide 12. Revenue of $5.1 billion was down 2%. As mentioned, revenue was negatively impacted by vehicle production headwinds in select customers primarily impacting our electrical distribution and user experience product lines, including customer schedule reductions in both electrified and internal combustion vehicles. This was partially offset by growth in our Active Safety and Engineered Components product lines. Net price and commodities were positive to the top line, offsetting the negative impact of foreign exchange. Moving to the right. Our regional revenue performance in North America and Europe reflects the previously mentioned customer and product line dynamics. In China, we grew 16% in the quarter with local OEMs and effectively offsetting the negative impact from lower production at the multinational OEMs. As Kevin discussed, we continue to expand our business with the local Chinese OEMs and as we see strong double-digit growth in both new business bookings and revenues with this customer segment. Moving to Slide 13. Our ASUX segment achieved record quarterly revenue and earnings as strong growth in active safety more than offset the impact of lower user experience revenues. Active Safety was up 15% in the quarter with continued strength across North America and Europe. User experience, which is impacted by the slowdown in multinational OEMs in China was down 10% in the quarter. Segment adjusted income the quarter was $170 million or 10.9%, driven by strong flow-through on active safety volumes as well as the ongoing initiatives to improve manufacturing and engineering efficiency. Turning to Signal Power on Slide 14. Revenue in the second quarter was just over $3.5 billion, a decrease of 3% or 2% below vehicle production, reflecting growth in the Engineered Components product line, excluding high voltage of 3%, offset by declines in the electrical distribution product line, primarily driven by the lower volumes at select customers and high-voltage revenues were down 19% in the quarter. Segment adjusted operating income was $436 million or 12.4%, driven by operating performance initiatives and cost reduction actions. Net pricing commodities were a positive, offsetting the negative impact of foreign exchange. Moving to Slide 15 and our updated macro outlook. Based on changes in customer schedules, we now assume global vehicle production will be down 3% in 2024 from our prior outlook of down 1%. Expected production volume is down across all regions, with North America now expected to be down 1%, Europe down 5% and China flat on a year-over-year basis driven by lower production at multinational OEMs China. In addition of vehicle production reductions across regions, we are also seeing reductions across powertrains, including both BEV and internal combustion platforms. For FX and commodity rates, our outlook assumes copper at $4.25, Mexican peso at $17.40 and the Chinese RMB at $7.15. Slide 16 has our full year outlook. As we look out at the balance of the year, we do expect continued pressure on vehicle production, particularly from the select customers we noted. However, we remain confident that the actions we have taken to improve performance and reduce costs will continue to drive strong operating performance. Our outlook includes revenues in the range of $20.1 billion to $20.4 billion, down from the prior midpoint of $21.2 billion, representing adjusted revenue growth of 1%. I would note that we've incorporated both customer schedule reductions, as well as an additional judgmental reduction in revenues and our updated outlook. We assume global vehicle production is down 3%, resulting in growth over market of 4%. At the segment level, ASUX growth over market remained strong at 10% and with SPS at 1%. Operating income of $2.4 billion, which is an increase in operating margin to 12% and reflecting continued strong operating performance that partially offsets the decremental impact of the lower revenues. We are also increasing our EPS estimate to $6.30 at the midpoint, an increase of $0.25 from prior guide, resulting from the early completion of the Motional JV transaction as well as lower share count, which offsets the impact from lower earnings. Operating cash is expected to be $2.15 billion, up 13% from the prior year. The outlook also reflects the impact of the $3 billion accelerated share repurchase plan, which I'll cover in more detail on the next slide. As Kevin stated, we are announcing a $5 billion share repurchase authorization, which will include an accelerated share repurchase plan, or ASR, totaling $3 billion that will commence tomorrow. Our confidence in the long-term mega trends, combined with our operating performance and the strength of our balance sheet afford us the opportunity to acquire a significant amount of Aptiv's common stock. The ASR will be funded through a combination of available liquidity and debt. We believe the ASR continues our longstanding practice of balanced capital allocation and our strong financial position allows us to continue to invest in the business, while accelerating capital return to shareholders. The remaining authorization will be available for future purposes once the ASR is completed. Moving to my final Slide on 18. Our consistent focus on improving and maintaining active strong financial position has provided us the ability to accelerate the return of capital to shareholders while maintaining our financial policy and balanced track record of capital deployment. Performance improvement initiatives across the business and the elimination of significant disruption costs experienced over the last few years have returned margins to pre-COVID levels and the completion of the Motional transaction provides additional funds for capital deployment within Aptiv. Our capital allocation plans, including the acceleration of capital returned to shareholders, fits within our financial policy as we maintain the ability to invest in the business and delever over the coming year. With that, I'll turn the call back to Kevin for his closing remarks.
Kevin Clark:
Thank you, Joe. I'll make some final remarks on Slide 20, before opening the lineup for questions. We executed well in the second quarter, despite the revenue headwinds with record earnings and strong cash flow. And we're well positioned to continue our solid operating performance through the remainder of the year. We believe our revised financial outlook is prudent, reflecting the lower OEM production schedules, plus an overlay of incremental management conservatism that Joe mentioned. And we're confident that our strong operating performance will translate into increased operating margins as reflected in our updated outlook. As the automotive industry navigates the near-term headwinds, we remain confident that the trends towards greater levels of electrification, connectivity and digitization will continue. And Aptiv's portfolio is well positioned to help our customers both transition to and benefit from a more electrified, connected and software-defined world, which we're confident will result in strong earnings and cash flow growth that will translate into significant value creation for our shareholders. Our conviction around the medium-to-long-term trend and our strong operating performance, has positioned us to take advantage of the market dislocation in our stock price, and allows us to increase our capital return to shareholders. Our management team remains focused on flawless execution and creating shareholder value, and we will continue to drive the business forwards, focused on developing our portfolio of advanced technologies, strong operating execution, returning cash to shareholders and maximizing the value of our portfolio of businesses. Operator, let's now open the line, up for questions.
Operator:
Thank you. [Operator Instructions] We'll now move first to Joe Spak with UBS. Your line is open. Please go ahead.
Joe Spak:
Thanks. Good morning everyone. Kevin, just to start on the buyback, clearly, a strong signal from you and the management team, I know you as a leadership team, have been very focused on shareholder value. So can you just talk a little bit more about, how you came to this decision to sort of lever up versus maybe some other options? And then on the debt, you've historically also been pretty conservative. So is this just confidence in the next few years' cash flow to sort of bring this down? Or are there other some potential ways to maybe get some cash out of the business by like looking at some slower growth assets or something like that?
Kevin Clark:
Yes. Thanks, Joe. Well, listen, I think I'd start with our general review from a management standpoint is we remain conservative. Our outlook for the business is, and quite frankly, has been very strong over the last couple of years. Clearly, as it relates to the transition from COVID to supply chain disruption and some of the cost and inefficiencies that we had to absorb and had to work through over a period of time. That took a little time, and we've gotten through it. The reality is we've gotten through that and is reflected in our results last quarter from an operating performance standpoint quarter from an operating performance standpoint this and then as we look at the balance of the year, we have really strong, strong confidence in our ability to continue to execute and deliver margin expansion. Now setting that aside, we look at the opportunities that are in front of us where whether it's electrification, which clearly has slowed a bit whether it's areas in and around active safety or user experience or our Engineered Components portfolio, we're very optimistic. We have significant opportunities in front of us in the automotive and nonautomotive space. And relative to those opportunities relative to how we're executing and the operating performance that we're delivering our share price is clearly - it's clearly undervalued. And as we look at trade-offs, various investments, it's the most attractive investment that we have in front of us. And given the performance of our business and our view, outlook for the future, we feel as though we can do this while at the same time, continuing to invest in the business. And as it relates to other opportunities to increase value, that's something that we - as we always do, we'll continue to look at, we'll continue to evaluate. And to the extent we need to adjust our portfolio to certain market trends or market dynamics. Those are things we'll consider.
Joseph Massaro:
Joe, it's Joe. Just to follow up from a delever perspective, not assuming any cash from sort of one-off sources. We've built a plan here that allow us to delever over the course of 2025 and maintain the same view on financial policy that we've had before.
Joe Spak:
Okay. Thank you. And just the second question on China. Obviously, sort of - this has been an area of a lot of focus for investors, not just for Aptiv, but the entire industry. And you have the growth under market now of 4% for the year. Doesn't seem like the dynamics of some of those foreign players are changing anytime soon. I know you showed some decent metrics with some of the domestic players. But I think in the past, you've said your backlog is moving to a 50-50. But if you look, the domestics are already 60%, maybe 65% share in some of the more recent months. So I know you don't recast your pass bookings, but like how much of that should investors think is at risk? Because clearly, some - it would seem that some business that has been awarded is just not going to materialize in the volumes.
Joseph Massaro:
Yes, Joe, it's Joe. Let me start. I mean our revenues are over 50% at this point, local Chinese OEM and growing quickly. We're clearly growing into that market share shift. Bookings are 60-plus percent and have been for the last couple of years on the Chinese locals. So it's something - I don't have the exact bookings headwind number for you, but it's clearly something we're watching closely. It is something the team has been on for a while now. This isn't something we just started doing in the last couple of quarters. At one point, that business, as you know, was 70% global, 30% local. So we continue to see good transition. I think the challenge at the moment is just how quickly couple of these multinationals are actually dropping off more than a concern about how well we're growing with the locals. And it's something we're working with those customers on and obviously watching closely.
Kevin Clark:
Yes, if I can add, Joe, I think important in the China market with the local OEMs the period between award and actual launch tends to be nine to 12 months. So ability to gain traction and deliver revenue growth and it's reflected in the growth numbers that Joe talked about with China local OEMs, it's rapid. I would say the challenge that we have in China right now is really from a multinational standpoint is unique to two customers. And this past quarter, we saw a significant reduction in their volumes, in their schedules. And a part of the judgment that Joe was referring to or Joe referred to from a schedule standpoint is that continues during the balance of this year. So as Joe said, changing our mix has been a priority for the last three years. We have made traction. We'll continue to make traction. And we think we're addressing the challenge there and the market changes.
Joe Spak:
Thank you, guys.
Kevin Clark:
Thanks Joe.
Operator:
We'll move next to John Murphy with Bank of America. Your line is open. Please go ahead.
John Murphy:
Good morning, guys. Kevin, just maybe - and Joe, maybe just kind of in sort of a strategy and philosophical follow-up to sort of this cap reallocation as you think about the step-up in buybacks, you're kind of alluding to the shares being very undervalued, which I certainly agree with, at a good ROI, which I also agree with. But it does suggest that you may be shifting capital away from R&D, product development and growth going forward. Is that the suggestion here that there's kind of a potential, a little bit of a slowdown here in some product development. I mean you guys are often way out - way ahead of the curve often SBA and stuff like that is really advanced stuff that taking time to come to fruition that you might be able to sort of structurally slow down your R&D and product development? And then lean back on some of the ICE and other core products and generate more cash and we might be looking at an even better return of value to shareholders over time. Just curious how this balances out sort of back into the core business?
Kevin Clark:
Yes. So I agree with your first comment, stock price, share price is significantly undervalued with respect to priorities. Listen, it's important we position ourselves for the trends in our industry and the challenges that our customers are dealing with. Obviously, some of those have slowed a bit as we look at some of that - some of those slowdowns we have scaled back investment in certain areas - in areas like high-voltage electric electrification, some aspects of that; in areas like smart vehicle architecture, we've scaled back. We haven't completely stopped but slowed and that's freed up additional engineering dollars. At the same time, John, our engineering factory, both in the ASUX segment and the SPS segment is really executing extremely well, a number of the efficiency initiatives that we've put in place from an operational standpoint as well as the rotation of our footprint to best cost countries has certainly generated benefits. And from an outlook standpoint, we'll reduce engineering spend year-over-year by $75 million to $100 million this year, so a significant level of productivity.
John Murphy:
Got it. And then just a follow-up. I mean you mentioned HellermannTyton was about $2 billion in revenue right now. I think you acquired it in 2015. It was about $500 million roughly give or take back then. So that's a 15% CAGR. So that's been not a double or triple, I argue maybe a home run. Are there other acquisitions that could create even greater extension in adjacencies for your core business that might make sense that you guys are looking at right now? I mean, because that - I mean that's a great example of an add-on.
Kevin Clark:
Well, I'm not sure I fully understand your question. So when we bought HellermannTyton, it was just under $1 billion of revenue. So it's effectively doubled over the time frame. From an M&A standpoint, been an absolute home run. It's a great business. It's global. Margins have expanded significantly. We've seen similar sort of growth rates over an extended period of time in the Winchester business from an engineered component standpoint. And the reality is when you look at our connection systems business, over the decade plus I've been here, John, those revenues have increased roughly fourfold. Now some of that is acquisition related. Some of that's organic. Clearly, they're strategically important businesses. As you know, they have high margin profiles, which make them very attractive. And those are areas that we're really focused on investing in taking those businesses and those products if they're in the automotive market into the nonautomotive markets, and for those that are in the nonautomotive markets, if it makes sense, leveraging our automotive business so that we kind of cross-pollinate product portfolio. So it's certainly a big area of focus for us.
John Murphy:
Okay. Thank you very much.
Operator:
We'll move next to Itay Michaeli with Citi. Your line is open. Please go ahead.
Itay Michaeli:
Great. Thank you. Good morning, everyone. Just first question, just given the volatility in top line this year and of course, the resilient margin. Just curious how we should be thinking kind of more broadly in the medium term around the company's organic growth or growth of market as well as just the incremental margin path from here? And then just secondly, on the bookings, I know it can be very lumpy quarter into quarter, but just curious how Q2 compared with internal expectations. I think in the past, you may have suggested there was maybe upside to the $35 billion for the full year. Curious if that still is a potential for the year? Thank you.
Joseph Massaro:
Yes, Itay, let me start with the bookings question. It is lumpy. We're on track for the $35 billion. And again, we just - and if you look at the chart in the deck, right, you'll see the quarter just to move around based on size of awards, and we've had a couple of large awards in sort of given quarters. So nothing more than that normal lumpiness there and remain I think confident in the $35 billion at this point. As it relates to revenue, it wasn't very early, obviously, days to be going into next year. As we think about early planning assumptions, we're certainly targeting mid-single-digit growth, really assuming no help from the market at this point. So flat vehicle production, but a lot to work through, particularly just given the mix in platforms, the mix and powertrains, those types of things, and obviously, China.
Kevin Clark:
If I can augment that. I listen - Joe, I think it's important because Joe articulated this in his prepared comments, really, when you look at - the second quarter, it was four customers that impacted our revenue in a negative way significantly. So that dynamic had a big impact on us for Q2, we believe they'll have consistent impacts in - for the balance of the year but we'll see how that play out. When you look at the broader mix of OEMs, listen, some are up, some are down, but the net is with those four. And I think it's important to keep that in context.
Itay Michaeli:
Absolutely. That's very helpful. Thank you.
Operator:
We'll move next to Adam Jonas with Morgan Stanley. Your line is open. Please go ahead.
William Tackett:
Hi. This is William Tackett on for Adam Jonas. I'm curious, maybe expanding on Itay's question to go with how fast the trends are shifting in the industry? Do you reiterate that long-term growth over market assumption of 6% to 8% I guess, even with the new aggressive capital return strategy? Thanks.
Kevin Clark:
Listen, we'll look at customer mix, market dynamics and evaluate. I think, as Joe said, next year, we're looking at kind of mid-single-digit, sort of, growth on flat market. We needed to do more work on that to determine whether that's the longer-term outlook or it translates to what we're seeing more near-term.
William Tackett:
Got it. That makes a lot of sense. I guess next question, do you expect to see your OEM customers fit the more advanced L2+ systems on non-software-defined vehicles and non-EV architectures with any material volume? And I guess if so, is this something that's relatively easy for the customers to do? Thanks.
Kevin Clark:
Yes, I think we get asked questions about impact of some of the delays of technology adoption, whether it be the transition to EVs or possible transition to smart vehicle architecture. And what you need to keep in mind is OEMs need to be constantly upgrading and enhancing vehicles to me. Consumer demand regardless of whether they're adopting SCA or they're launching EV platforms. So we would tell you during this calendar year, we've seen incremental, what I'd call, bridge programs that relate to legacy ADAS or user experience solutions that are in the billions of dollars. So significant opportunities to enhance and upgrade existing solutions that we feel like we're very well-positioned for some are with existing customers, some are with new customers. So that progress, those opportunities, the OEMs desire to continue to enhance the technology, put more technology in the car will continue.
William Tackett:
Got it. Thank you, guys.
Operator:
We'll move next to Dan Levy with Barclays. Your line is open. Please go ahead.
Dan Levy:
Hi. Good morning. Thank you for taking the questions. I wanted to just unpack the margins a bit more. And maybe you can just talk to the trajectory? And how much is inflation, dissipation playing a role here, getting more pricing and really just reversing some of the headwinds that we saw in past years versus other things like engineering or footprint reduction. So I'm just trying to disaggregate sort of the margin strength from here.
Joseph Massaro:
Yes. Dan, it's Joe. I mean it's actually pretty balanced. I mean, I'd go back to sort of some of that discussion we had at Investor Day, of just how we thought margins would improve over the next coming years, right? You obviously had the COVID and supply chain disruption costs coming out. Those were $160 million last year with the majority of them in the first half. So we're seeing those come out. That's been helpful. But then to Kevin's prepared remarks, if you look at where engineering as a percent of sales, very much in line with those targets as it comes back down to sort of that 6% to 7% range, so it's fairly balanced really across those initiatives. That pricing commodities continues to be a contributor, but it's not - it's by no means as large as it was a couple of years ago.
Dan Levy:
And the price recoveries from customers, is that continuing to play a role here?
Joseph Massaro:
Yes, that's in that net price comment. That's obviously come down. We've seen the direct material inflation come down. And as a result, we've seen less recoveries. And at this point, the vast majority has been included over the past four-plus quarters has been included in piece price.
Dan Levy:
Great. Thank you. Second question is just on SBA and your presence with customers. Obviously, I think we're hoping for just some sort of an update on where the SBA discussions are with your customers. You had mentioned over the quarter that there was a $2 billion cancellation. Maybe you could just talk about the line of sight on the remaining $8 billion, I think - coming through market share. Anything you've talked about. And then even if you're getting - if some of these programs are going away, can you just talk about the other content that still have that shows that even if that - you've lost that content, there is still some offset on the high voltage or other pieces of the architecture?
Kevin Clark:
Yes. Let me take a shot at it. So listen, pretty good line of sight as it relates to smart vehicle architecture. To put - to start with just the underlying trend. More and more OEMs are headed in this direction. So I would say the recognition to get to where they want to get from hardware architecture, software architecture to be more software defined. They need to re-architect both the hardware as well as the software. So I would say global recognition that, that needs to be done. Executing that can be difficult. You're seeing that with certain OEMs and that's impacting timing. To put it in perspective, two years ago at this point in time, we had a pipeline for smart vehicle architecture that included four OEMs. Today we have a pipeline for smart vehicle architecture that includes over 20 OEMs across the globe. So the pipeline is actually larger and the number of OEMs headed in this direction is actually larger. To the extent our approach to smart vehicle architecture is, obviously, we've talked about it. We've developed a system solution, but we sell components that go into that system solution. So customers don't have to buy our complete solution. They can buy parts of it, which puts us in a great position to serve either demand from the customer. As it relates to any delays or push off of programs, they have existing platforms that, as I mentioned, they need to be upgraded and enhanced, they can't be static, and that's especially in areas like ADAS or user experience and this year alone, we have in our pipeline, and hey, we won't win all of these. And some of these, quite frankly, we're probably less interested in, but we have opportunities that are over $10 billion. So there is significant opportunity out there for us to help OEMs bridge the gap. And those opportunities are on both ICE as well as EV platforms or electrified platforms. So in areas like active safety or user experience, it's very agnostic as it relates to what the power plant architecture is. So I hope that answers your question.
Dan Levy:
And maybe you could just anything on the share dynamics or just competitively how you think you're stacking up versus others on SVA?
Kevin Clark:
Yes. Listen, we - again, I - we started down the SVA pass in, what, 2017, 2018. So our solutions are very strong. We're doing some work with select OEMs. We're very selective in terms of the business we pursue. There are, at times, desires for OEMs to have fairly customized solutions. We've productized our system and components that go into smart vehicle architecture. So we're not - we're looking for standardization and technologies that we can bring across multiple OEMs versus develop customized solutions for a given OEM. So I'm not sure share is the right way to look at it at this point in time. But we sit - we're very well positioned just given our portfolio of products and our experience in this area.
Dan Levy:
Great. Thank you. That's helpful.
Operator:
We'll move next to Mark Delaney with Goldman Sachs. Your line is open. Please go ahead.
Mark Delaney:
Yes. Good morning. Thanks very much for taking my questions. The company had several launches that were supposed to occur in the second half of 2024 that allowed for an acceleration in growth over market with your now 4% growth over market assumption for 2024 that still does require a meaningful step up relative to what you reported for the first half. So maybe you can help investors better understand your confidence and visibility into those launches occurring and to what extent that's been a piece of the conservatism you mentioned compared to the schedules?
Kevin Clark:
Yes. I would say from a launch standpoint it partly depends on mix. So I'd be careful on first half, second half as it relates to revenue because the reality is, you need to start the launch and there's a ramp up and it takes a period of time for it to come to full revenue. So I would say as you look at 2024 calendar, you prefer to have a heavier weighting in the back half of Q3, which we had, and then the first half of the back half of 2023, I'm sorry. And then the first half of 2024, right? That would be your preference so that you're hitting the revenue inflection point in the back half of 2024. And that's how our launches are timed. We watch this by region, by business unit, by product line. And that's what's reflected in our guidance for the back half of the year from the revenue standpoint and it takes into account what Joe shared from our outlook from a vehicle production standpoint with the overlay of incremental management conservatism.
Joseph Massaro:
Yes, Mark, I'd say it's the launches themselves and we haven't seen any cancellations to Kevin's point. A lot of these have started at lower volumes earlier in the year. So they're impacted maybe by vehicle production total, schedules from customers. But generally, from a launch perspective, remain on track. I'll go back to Kevin's earlier comment, the select customers that we called out, there roughly 70% of the revenue reduction in the back half of the year, right? And then we have the conservatism overlay out sort of top of that. So this really is a very acute situation with those four customers. And we're really there's some schedules moving up and down a bit with other customers. But for us, it's really those four customers that we called out that where we're seeing. They were the vast majority of the shortfall and well over 70% of the full year takedown.
Mark Delaney:
Okay. That's helpful. Thanks. My other question was on Wind River. I believe, you assumed mid-teens growth for Wind River revenue this year. Can you give an update on where that's tracking? And maybe as you think about Wind River longer term, can you talk about the momentum with customers, especially in the automotive space and the prospect for any additional wins? Thanks.
Kevin Clark:
Yes. So second half weighted from an overall growth rate, just given revenues last year were timed stronger in the first half of the year. So when you look at it from a year-over-year standpoint, strong opportunities and launches in Aerospace and Defense and Telecommunications and Industrial and Automotive. Growth opportunities in Automotive, we've had significant success in the China market, just given the nature of the new platform introductions. So it's easier to introduce a solution like the Wind River VxWorks Solutions or Helix Hypervisor on a platform that you are launching a new platform versus an existing platform. So largely on track from an automotive standpoint, we would say the opportunities remain solid. Gaining traction on Wind River Studio developer, especially in the automotive space and I would say that's across regions, just given the challenges that OEM customers are having with software development, the productivity that they're looking for, the fact that for the last few quarters, we've been using studio developer on our new program launches. So that integrates into the engineering organization, organizations of both Sows as well as OEMs, so they're seeing the benefits from a quality and efficiency standpoint. So the growth profile remains intact, and to-date, most of our progress in the automotive space has really been in China.
Mark Delaney:
Thank you.
Operator:
We'll move next to Shreyas Patil with Wolfe Research. Your line is open. Please go ahead.
Shreyas Patil:
Hi. Thanks a lot for taking my question. Wondering if you could just provide more details on some of the cost tailwinds in the quarter, I think you mentioned the elimination of supply chain and COVID costs that might have been maybe $40 million to $50 million but on my math, you were probably achieving something closer to $175 million in net performance and productivity. You mentioned I think engineering was a tailwind as well. And just big picture, you've talked before about incremental margins in the 18% to 22% range. With these cost actions, do you see that trending higher as we look out?
Joseph Massaro:
Yes. Listen, I think we're continuing to project less away from long-term sort of margin projections. We've obviously talked about where we thought 2025 looks and I think we're on that at 12.5%. I think we continue to track towards that if you look at where we'll be in the back half of the year. As I mentioned earlier, Shreyas, it's really a balance, right, where we're seeing really strong manufacturing performance, I agree with your COVID supply cost chain numbers coming - the disruption costs coming out, engineering coming back in line and we're seeing really strong performance coming out of the operations of the business as well. So it's really if you go back to sort of how we thought about margin enhancement over - back at Investor Day, we had that $1.7 billion of what we thought was going to be in performance over three years. About $300 million of that was the supply chain disruption coming out. The remainder, we talked about being sort of equal improvements over the course of the three years across manufacturing, logistics, engineering and SG&A and that's really what we're seeing. So it's fairly balanced. There's no big one-off items in there. It's really the business operating well. As we talked we talked about it at the end of last year, took a made a decision on what I'll call overhead costs and took out a significant amount of overhead costs. We about a $50 million number. We're seeing that come in. as well. So it's fairly well balanced. And I think it puts us if you look at where run rate margin or sort of back half H2 EBIT margins will be in sort of those mid-12s, that sets us up, I think, pretty well for the 12.5% we were talking about 2025.
Shreyas Patil:
Okay. Great. And just one last one. Following up on Dan's question earlier on SVA. Just trying to think about the trade-off here between the reduction that you would - that you see in SVA architectures terms of wiring content. I know that's a lower margin business for you. But in a situation where you may not be winning as much in specific SBA products, whether it's zonal controllers or CDCs or anything like that. Just how to think about the what are the positives that are still there besides those architectures, whether it's in engineered components or high-voltage connectors, just trying to think about those architectures as we look ahead?
Kevin Clark:
Yes. Well, the math we used to do, make sure I understand your question as it relates to SVA versus traditional architecture and our product portfolio is effectively if we had a full system, right, $3 would go in and roughly $150 would go out like that was the net. And most of that would be in and around the wire harness, right? That's where you see you see - would the net change. As it relates to incremental opportunities again, our customers don't remain static. So to the extent they are pausing on something delaying or stopping there are certain things that they need to do with that vehicle and vehicle lineup. And that can translate into incremental vehicle architecture or let's call it, a step change in vehicle architecture, not all the way to SVA, where the wire harness is changed. Mass is taking out and it's replaced with things like high-speed cable assemblies and other items like that, that reduce weight and mass improve performance and translate into more content for Aptiv. To the extent they're delaying a particular architecture like a zonal controller or a CBC, they are going to have to enhance and upgrade their ADAS, user experience and other solutions that's what I was referencing in the $10 billion opportunity that I talked about in this particular calendar year. So there are opportunities in and around those spaces that didn't exist previously, right, that weren't there for ourselves. So that's an incremental revenue opportunity as well.
Shreyas Patil:
Okay. Thanks.
Operator:
We will take our final question from Tom Narayan with RBC. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.
Tom Narayan:
Hi. Thanks for taking the question. Only if I could do this as a follow-up, if necessary, but just getting this question. The leverage that you guys are at, I guess, when you do the ASR and kind of what level of cash do you need just for operation? Just love any kind of numbers associated with that.
Joseph Massaro:
Yes. Cash. Hi, Tom, it's Joe. Cash from operations is, call it, $600 million to $800 million, we finished the quarter with $1.4 billion of cash. We have another €700 million actually of market like securities. So we're in a good position as we ended the quarter, adjusted debt to EBITDA, call it, right around 2 times net debt obviously lower. So, we're in a really good position. I mean we've really kept that balance sheet in really good shape over the last few years, right? We managed it well through COVID, in my view. We're generating a lot of cash. So we're in a really good position to do this from an ASR and putting on the debt to repurchase the stock, and we've talked to the rating agencies, intent is to maintain investment grade and work over the course of next year to - when we do the final debt offering support the ASR, we're going to include some prepayable debt, but it will allow us, in our view, to get back to effectively where we are today by the end of next year are certainly very early 2026.
Tom Narayan:
Got it. And then a quick follow-up on SVA. I know we talked a lot about that. But one thing we've been hearing from some of the OEMs, mostly on the premium side is what appears to be at least their public statements, their desire to do as much as possible kind of on their own or maybe utilize Tier 1 less. Is it a dynamic where there's a differentiation between maybe premium OEMs wanting to differentiate for their own brand, whereas maybe mass market OEMs, where that's not necessarily the case? Or because you mentioned you have the optionality to sell components, if not the whole system. How do you think the market is turning out in this context? Is it like a mass market versus premium thing? Or is it just kind of scattered? Yes.
Kevin Clark:
Yes. So we would say it's really OEM by OEM. When a comment like that, the question is, want to do more on their own, not quite sure what that means. It might mean kind of design of the particular smart vehicle architecture. That maybe touches on the point where I talked about. We don't view this as particularly differentiating for a unique OEM. Our focus, just given our years of history in and around power and data distribution is just how do you how do you do it effectively, efficiently at lowest cost, how you reduce weight and mass. So, we feel like, obviously, our solution is the best solution if a particular OEM wants to go down the path that you talked about, they certainly can. We're focused on avoiding customized solutions for OEMs. So, that's that business we have pursued or we would pursue. So, I'm not sure - I'm not sure that at the end of the day, it's that differentiating or important for an OEM to own, but if they elect to do it and if we have a product that meets their needs that we can sell profitably, that's certainly something we'll do. If not, it's something we'll do - we won't do, we'll move on to the next OEM. As I mentioned, our pipeline today includes programs with 20 different OEMs versus two years ago four. So there's plenty of opportunity that's out there.
Tom Narayan:
Got it. Thank you.
Operator:
I will now turn the conference back to Kevin Clark for any additional or closing remarks.
Kevin Clark:
All right. Thank you, everybody, for joining our call today. We really appreciate your time. Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, that will conclude today's call. We thank you for your participation. You may disconnect at this time.
Operator:
Good day, and welcome to the Aptiv Q1 2024 Earnings Call. Today's conference is being recorded. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Jane Wu, Vice President of Investor Relations and Corporate Development. Please go ahead.
Jane Wu:
Thank you, Jess. Good morning, and thank you for joining Aptiv's First Quarter 2024 Earnings Conference Call. The press release and related tables, along with the slide presentation, can be found on the Investor Relations portion of our website at aptiv.com.
Today's review of our financials exclude amortization, restructuring and other special items and will address the continuing operations of Aptiv. The reconciliations between GAAP and non-GAAP measures for our first quarter results as well as our 2024 outlook are included at the back of the slide presentation and the earnings press release. During today's call, we will be providing certain forward-looking information that reflects Aptiv's current view of future financial performance and may be materially different for reasons that we cite in our Form 10-K and other SEC filings. Joining us today will be Kevin Clark, Aptiv's Chairman and CEO; and Joe Massaro, Vice Chairman of Business Operations and Chief Financial Officer. Kevin will provide a strategic update on the business, and Joe will cover the financial results in more detail before we open the call to Q&A. And with that, I'd like to turn the call over to Kevin Clark.
Kevin P. Clark:
Thank you, Jane, and thanks, everyone, for joining us this morning. Let's begin on Slide 3. Operationally, we had a strong start to the year, demonstrating our ability to execute despite some headwinds.
Touching on a few highlights. New business bookings reached almost $13 billion, reflecting the continued demand for our industry-leading product portfolio. First quarter revenue was just under $5 billion, representing adjusted year-over-year growth of 2%, impacted by continued slowing of electric vehicle production in North America and Europe production and increased labor inflation and earnings per share increased 27% to $1.16. Lastly, we repurchased $600 million of stock during the quarter... Hello. Apologies we seem to have had a technical difficulty. So if it's okay, I'll start from the beginning. So again, thanks, Jane, and thanks, everyone, for joining us this morning. Let's begin on Slide 3. Operationally, we had a strong start to the year, demonstrating our ability to execute despite some headwinds. Starting on a few highlights. New business bookings reached almost $13 billion, reflecting the continued demand for our industry-leading product portfolio. First quarter revenue was just under $5 billion, representing adjusted year-over-year growth of 2%, impacted by continued slowing of electrical vehicle production in both North America and Europe. EBITDA and operating income totaled $720 million and $544 million, respectively, representing more than 20% growth and roughly 200 basis points of margin expansion, reflecting benefits from productivity initiatives and cost actions, which offset lower vehicle production and increased labor inflation. And earnings per share increased 27% to $1.16. Lastly, we repurchased $600 million of stock during the quarter, bringing the total amount of shares repurchased to $900 million over the last 2 quarters. In summary, the team did an exceptional job delivering solutions to our customers, while at the same time, increasing operating efficiencies and reducing our cost structure. Turning to Slide 4. While we are encouraged by our strong first quarter execution, we believe that it's prudent to update our 2024 outlook to reflect the continued weakness in electric vehicle production, including significant customer schedule reductions over the past few weeks and the current negative impact of foreign exchange rates. As a result, we're lowering our full year 2024 revenue guidance by $450 million, principally reflecting a reduction in our outlook for high-voltage revenue growth. While we continue to believe that all regions are on the path to full electrification, some will move faster than others, so we consider it prudent to reduce our near-term revenue expectations. As the industry navigates the current headwinds, we're maintaining our high standard of flawless execution, while continuing to reduce our cost structure and strengthen our sustainable business model. We're supporting our customers on a record number of new program launches, almost 2,300 in 2024, including over 750 program launches in the first quarter, the cadence of which gives us confidence in the acceleration of our second half revenue growth. We've also proactively executed initiatives that have lowered our cost structure. In early '23, we launched several initiatives to improve engineering efficiency in both our ASUX and SPS segments. And in late 2023, we executed additional cost actions across all overhead and operating functions, targeting more than a 10% reduction in salary payroll. And in response to the recent softness of electric vehicle production schedules, we kicked off incremental cost actions that will generate an additional $50 million of cost savings through the balance of this year. The net result of these puts and takes is a $50 million reduction in our full year outlook for operating income to $2.5 billion, above the bottom end of our prior guidance range, representing 11.8% operating margin and just under 80% growth in operating income. I'm pleased to announce that we've reached a formal agreement with the Hyundai Motor Group regarding our Motional joint venture, which positions Motional for ongoing success while addressing the needs of both joint venture partners. Joe will go into more detail later in the presentation. Lastly, we continue to believe that our stock is undervalued and presents an attractive opportunity to return capital to shareholders. As such, we're doubling our share repurchase target from $750 million to $1.5 billion during 2024. In summary, our conviction regarding the strength of our competitive position and the long-term value of our business is as high as ever, and we remain committed to delivering value to our shareholders. Moving to Slide 5. As mentioned, bookings reached nearly $13 billion in the quarter. Advanced safety and user experience bookings totaled $2.5 billion, driven by active safety bookings of $1.9 billion, including our first full system Gen 6 ADAS award, including in-cabin sensing and the full suite of Wind River Embedded and Studio developer software with an emerging EV player, bringing the cumulative active safety and user experience segment awards to $33 billion since the first quarter of 2021. Signal and Power Solutions new business bookings reached a record of over $10.3 billion, reflecting electrical distribution systems bookings totaling a record $7 billion including an award from a leading global Japanese OEM for both plug-in hybrids and battery electric vehicles for the North American market and connection systems bookings totaling $2.5 billion including an award from a leading electric vehicle OEM for high-speed cable assemblies on a global electric vehicle platform, bringing cumulative S and PS segment bookings to $70 billion since the first quarter of 2021. In China, across both segments, we were awarded $3 billion in new business awards with both local and multinational OEMs including a vehicle architecture work from a leading local Chinese OEM for a low-cost battery electric vehicle, putting us on track to exceed our full year 2023 bookings of just under $6 billion. With our industry-leading portfolio, our global scale and our ability to execute highly complex programs, we remain confident in achieving our target of $35 billion of business awards during 2024. Turning to Slide 6 to review our Advanced Safety and User Experience segment's first quarter highlights. The segment reported 5% growth driven by 24% growth in active safety, which is on track for 20% full year revenue growth, more than offsetting the challenging comparables for user experience in Wind River in the quarter. Solid revenue growth was coupled with ongoing productivity improvements, including the continued maturation of our global product organization, driving higher levels of platform usage and software reuse. The consolidation of engineering centers and the continued rotation of engineering resources to our tech center in Bangalore, India, which is driving our percentage located in best cost countries to over 75%. The ongoing adoption of Wind River Studio, which is resulting in a roughly 40% improvement in workflow performance in the software building and scanning processes. And lastly, the continued progress we've made validating local Chinese semiconductor suppliers to meet the increasing demand from local Chinese OEMs for localized sources of supply and provide global OEMs with increased supply chain flexibility and resiliency at significantly lower costs. In terms of commercial highlights in the quarter, in addition to the Gen 6 ADAS award I mentioned earlier, we're awarded a radar program by a global Japanese OEM for applications across multiple vehicle platforms in the North American, European and Asia Pacific markets. And Wind River Studio developer was selected by a major local Chinese OEM to help increase efficiency and reduce costs associated with the development, deployment, operations and servicing of the intelligent edge systems. Moving to Slide 7. As I mentioned earlier, an emerging electric vehicle OEM has selected the Aptiv Gen 6 ADAS platform to enable turnkey ADAS across a wide range of platforms and models with the start of production in 2026. This is our first full system productized Gen 6 ADAS platform award, building on Aptiv's proven hands-free highway full system solutions, which are already in production. This open modular and scalable ADAS platform will enable advanced hands-free urban and highway vehicle automation, driver safety and region-specific features, including fully integrated sensors, tightly coupled with Aptiv's edge to cloud compute framework. A containerized feature stack enabled by Aptiv's AI/ML enhanced solutions, including radar machine learning and ML-based vehicle behavior. And Wind River's extensive offerings such as Wind River Edge with VxWorks and Wind River Studio develop, deploy and operate the software over the life of the program. This award is a testament to our ability to deliver a full system, productized solution to our customers while validating the value of our Gen 6 ADAS platform, which includes flexibility across key layers of the staff to meet our customers' needs, scalability of hardware and software components from entry-level compliance up to Level 3 and industry lead performance at a very competitive cost. Turning to Signal and Power Solutions. First, first quarter highlights on Slide 8. We continue to benefit from our industry-leading portfolio, global scale and experience designing and developing optimized vehicle architecture solutions across the entire range of powertrain platforms from the internal combustion engine to battery electric vehicles. First quarter revenues increased 1%, driven by strong growth in China, partly offset by a decline in high voltage revenues, the result of the softening production schedule for electric vehicle platforms in both North America and Europe that I mentioned earlier. New business bookings during the quarter totaled over $10 billion. We continue to gain traction with top OEMs in China. During the quarter, electrical architecture bookings with China local OEMs reached more than $1 billion, including major awards across each of the 5 top local OEMs. And we received our first high-voltage integrated Power Electronics award for a DC-to-DC converters from a global EV manufacturer for its next-gen vehicle platform. As discussed previously, our Signal and Power Solutions segment continues to be impacted by increased labor inflation. To mitigate the impact, the operating team has initiated several actions including the further consolidation of our manufacturing footprint, while rotating more of our footprint to Central America and North Africa and modifying vehicle architecture design to enable the increased automation of select manufacturing processes with a target to increase automation to 30% of standard labor hours by 2026 and over 50% by 2030. Moving to Slide 9, and our OEM partners adapt to the shifting pace of consumer electric vehicle demand and emission requirements. Aptiv is positioned to deliver high-performance, cost-effective solutions that span the powertrain spectrum and adapt our capacity to align with the needs of our customers. Starting on the left of the slide. As we've discussed previously, we're benefiting from significant and increasing addressable content per vehicle from approximately 800 in electrical architecture content for an internal combustion engine platform to approximately 2,300 for a full battery electric vehicle. In many cases, this incremental content represents an opportunity to apply existing capabilities to a much larger addressable market. Although global penetration rates for hybrids and battery electric vehicles may fluctuate in the near-term, we firmly believe that the long-term macro tailwind remains attractive as the industry continues down path to full electrification. That said, we've taken a more conservative approach to the pace of electrification. And while we will continue to be more conservative than the broader market sentiment, our outlook still represents a significant market opportunity with meaningful future upside. Finally, on the right side of the slide, the strength of our current portfolio across regions, powertrains and platforms significantly insulates the business from any single industry headwind. To illustrate this point, if we were to assume that growth of all electrified vehicle platforms on which we have content was reduced to zero in 2024, including low-voltage solutions on battery electric vehicles, with no substitution from ICE vehicle platforms, our overall growth rate would decline by 1 to 2 points. As a result, we believe that we're uniquely positioned to deliver innovative solutions to our customers and value to our shareholders across all powertrain platforms. Moving to Slide 10. Before I turn the call over to Joe to walk through the financials, I wanted to touch on 2 recent customer events. In late February, the Wind River and Aptiv teams exhibited at Mobile World Congress in Barcelona, giving us the opportunity to collaborate with a wide range of telco customers and partners. The team showcased our ability to support operations at scale for 5G V-RAN and O-RAN deployments while highlighting solutions being leveraged by our customers to improve performance and reliability, reduce costs and unlock new business models. Among the many years of interest to our telco customers was our unique ability to support the convergence of telco infrastructure with a software-defined vehicle, enabling the deployment and update of new services much faster and much more efficiently. Last week, we took the opportunity to further strengthen our strategic partnerships in China during the 2024 Beijing Auto Show. Led by our local China management team, we engaged with a wide range of customers to discuss key technology trends, consumer expectations and performance and cost requirements that are unique to the China market. Local OEMs are demanding full system solutions, spanning both hardware and software, while consumer interest is accelerating for higher levels of ADAS and enhanced user experience.
Aptiv is perfectly positioned in this market to deliver solutions with increased flexibility, higher performance and faster speed to market, all at a much lower cost. While we have active engagements with customers across all regions and end markets, and it's important to note that all are essentially asking for the same thing:
The right hardware, the right software and the right engineering tool chain to support software-defined functionality for mission-critical applications. And as a result, our unique edge-to-cloud portfolio positions Aptiv to capitalize not only on the automotive industry's transition to software-defined vehicles, but also on the digital transformation and convergence of multiple industries as intelligence increasingly moves to the edge. By leveraging these proven solutions across industries, Aptiv is positioned for sustained long-term profitable growth.
With that, I'll now turn the call over to Joe.
Joseph Massaro:
Thanks, Kevin, and good morning, everyone. Starting with the first quarter on Slide 11. Aptiv delivered strong financial results in the quarter, reflecting robust execution across both segments and continued progress on our cost savings and margin improvement actions, resulting in operating margin improvement of 200 basis points over the prior year. Revenues were $4.9 billion, up 2% or 3% above underlying global vehicle production, which was down 1% in the quarter. Growth was negatively impacted by the continued slowing of battery electrical platforms in the quarter, particularly in North America and Europe, where we saw our high-voltage revenue down 2% and 6%, respectively.
Revenues on ICE platforms and high-voltage solutions on hybrids were up 2% and 26%, respectively. As I will discuss shortly, given the continued weakness in electric vehicle production, including significant customer schedule reductions over the past few weeks, we are revising downward our 2024 outlook for the year. Adjusted EBITDA and operating income were $720 million and $544 million, respectively. Operating income margin expanded 200 basis points versus prior year, in part driven by cost reduction and recovery programs put in place in 2023, as well as continued achievement of our operating performance initiatives, including the continued rotation of our engineering footprint to best cost locations. The year-over-year FX and commodity impacts were negligible. Earnings per share in the quarter were $1.16 and increased 27% from the prior year, including year-over-year earnings growth of 24%, partially offset by higher tax expense. And share repurchases completed in 2023 in the first quarter of 2024 added approximately $0.03 to EPS in the quarter. Operating cash flow was strong, totaling $244 million. Capital expenditures were $265 million, and share repurchases totaled $600 million. Looking at first quarter revenues on Slide 12. As noted, revenue of $4.9 billion was up 2%. Revenue growth was driven by strong active safety growth as well as growth in commercial vehicle and engineered components partially offset by lower high-voltage revenue. Net price and commodities were positive to the top line, partially offset by foreign exchange. Moving to the right. Revenues outgrew vehicle production in all regions. North American revenues were up 2% or 1% above market, driven by increases in active safety and engineered components, partially offset by lower high voltage. In Europe, revenues were down 1% year-over-year or 2 points above vehicle production with lower EV production in the region, partially offset by double-digit growth in active safety. And in China, revenues grew 5 points over market driven by growth with several key local OEMs. Moving to the ASUX segment on the next slide. Revenue growth was 5% or 6% above global vehicle production. Active safety was up 24% in the quarter, benefiting from new program launches as well as continued strong demand across all regions. User experience was down 8% in the quarter, primarily driven by the roll-off of the legacy program in North America and lower multinational JV volumes in China as discussed during our year-end earnings call. Wind River revenue decreased 16% in the quarter due to a strong year-over-year comparison. As we have discussed, Wind River revenues are lumpy on quarterly basis. For the full year, we expect mid-teens revenue growth at Wind River. Segment adjusted operating income in the quarter was $155 million, up significantly over prior year driven by cost reductions taken in the second half of 2023 as well as ongoing performance initiatives, including continued rotation of our footprint. Operating income margin in the quarter was 10.8%. Turning to Signal and Power on Slide 14. Revenue in the first quarter was approximately $3.5 billion, an increase of 1% or 2% above vehicle production driven by growth in engineered components of 3%, declines in high-voltage revenue on BEVs were partially offset by growth in hybrids, which make up approximately 25% of our high-voltage product line revenues. And China revenues were up 11% as we saw SPS growth of approximately 30% with local OEMs, while we saw growth of 2% with foreign OEMs. Segment adjusted operating income was $389 million or 11.2%, up 40 basis points over prior year as our cost savings and operating performance initiatives significantly reduced the impact of higher labor costs. Net price and commodities were positive. And on a year-over-year basis, the OI impact of foreign exchange was minimal. Moving to Slide 15 and our updated macro outlook. As Kevin mentioned, over the past several years -- over the past several weeks, we have seen both legacy OEMs as well as global EV OEMs, lower production schedules primarily in North America and Europe. These reductions are partially offset by select increase in ICE platforms, particularly in North America. As a result, we estimate global vehicle production to be down 1% for the year from a prior forecast of flat. Our outlook for revenue growth is now 5% for the year versus our prior outlook of 7%, reflecting growth over market of 6%. As for our key FX and commodity rates for the remainder of the year, we are now assuming copper at $4.35, Mexican peso at MXN 17 to the dollar and the Chinese RMB at 7.15. Slide 16 has our updated full year outlook. As discussed, our Q1 operating results were substantially in line with our expectations, including the benefit of our cost savings and performance actions. However, as we look at the balance of the year, we do see several likely and persistent headwinds that have caused us to revise and derisk our full year outlook. The revised outlook includes revenues of $21.15 billion, down from the prior midpoint of $21.6 billion, running adjusted revenue growth of 5%. The lower revenues resulted from the previously mentioned customer schedule reductions as well as an additional reduction to our H2 revenue growth based on current market conditions. As a result, first half revenue growth has been lower to 2% from our prior outlook of 4% and second half growth is now 8%, down from over 9%. Operating income of $2.5 billion or 11.8% of revenues, down $50 million from the prior midpoint. We are increasing our EPS estimate to $6.05 a share at the midpoint as the negative impact of the reduction in earnings is more than offset by the benefit of our share repurchase activity as well as the benefit of previously mentioned Motional transactions, which I'll cover in more detail in a moment. We have increased our outlook for operating cash flow, primarily reflecting improved working capital. And we are now targeting share repurchases of $1.5 billion in 2024, up from our prior guidance of $750 million. Moving to the next slide, we lay out the more significant changes to our outlook. With respect to revenue, global vehicle production decreasing from a previous outlook of flat to now down 1%, reduction of our full year high-voltage revenue growth from 20% to 5%, the decrease in high voltage is partially offset by increases in ICE production schedules, primarily in North America as well as increases in net price and commodities, reflecting higher copper prices that offset the foreign exchange impact on revenues. The decrease in operating income is driven by the flow-through of lower revenues as well as the negative impact foreign exchange, primarily the peso and RMB. As it relates to the Mexican peso, although many forecasts expect the peso to weaken over the course of the year, the peso has remained stronger than our initial expectations. Accordingly, we have updated our guidance to reflect an exchange rate of MXN 17 to the dollar. This is more in line with our spot level and also represents the level at which we have hedged approximately 90% of our 2024 peso exposure. And finally, despite the macro headwinds, we fully expect the benefits of the cost savings and performance actions we delivered in the first quarter to continue, partially mitigating the volume and foreign exchange impact. Turning to the next slide. We thought it would be helpful to walk our expected first half versus second half revenues in 2024. Second half revenue is expected to increase approximately $800 million. The increases in both segments are driven by new program launches with key customers in all regions. ASUX half-over-half revenue is expected to increase approximately $200 million with over half of the increase coming from the launch of one of our largest active safety programs across additional platforms in North America and Europe for a global OEM. These additional platforms are internal combustion vehicles and represent several of the OEMs best-selling platforms. Approximately 40% of the launch volume is with local Chinese OEMs, including several launches that have already commenced. The increase in Signal and Power of $500 million includes a launch totaling over $100 million in a large North American internal combustion SUV platform, an additional $100 million across 2 OEMs for new internal combustion truck launches in North America and Chinese market launches and volume growth for both local and foreign OEMs of over $100 million. The increase in sales will deliver margins higher in the second half with volume flow-through of approximately 30%, partially offset by incremental FX headwind of approximately $35 million due primarily to the peso. Moving to the next slide. As Kevin noted, we are excited to announce that we have reached a definitive agreement with Hyundai that provides for the future success of Motional while meeting the needs of the joint venture partners. As part of the agreement, Hyundai will provide Motional additional funding of $475 million. Hyundai will acquire 11% of Motional's common equity held by Aptiv for $448 million, and Aptiv will convert approximately 21% of our common equity interest to a preferred stockholding. Hyundai's funding to Motional will occur in the second quarter and we expect the acquisition of Aptiv shares, which is subject to customary regulatory review to close by the third quarter. The preferred stock conversion will coincide with the sale of our common equity to Hyundai. Our updated guidance includes approximately $0.30 of additional EPS, reflecting the benefit of the lower Motional common equity holdings beginning in the fourth quarter of this year. On a full year pro forma basis, the lower dilution for Motional will result in incremental EPS of approximately $0.90 per share beginning in 2025. Before handing the call back to Kevin, I'd like to walk through our updated earnings per share expectations in more detail. Building off a strong performance in the first quarter, the year-over-year EPS growth of 24% is driven by higher earnings of $1.32 as well as the benefit of share repurchases in 2024 and the improvement resulting from the transaction with Hyundai to reduce Aptiv's common equity holdings in Motional, more than offsetting the increase in Aptiv's tax rate, which was included in our original guidance. In summary, despite the lower vehicle production levels and slowdown in high voltage, we are confident that the measures taken to improve first quarter operating income and cash flow are sustainable for the balance of the year. The earnings and cash flow growth, combined with the proceeds from the Motional transaction, provide us the opportunity to continue our long track record of balanced capital deployment, including the return of capital to our shareholders. When combined with the 2023 share repurchases, our outlook for 2024 results in almost $2 billion of capital returned to shareholders in the past 2 years, increasing total capital returned to over $9 billion since our IPO. With that, I'll turn the call back to Kevin for his closing remarks.
Kevin P. Clark:
Thanks, Joe. I'll wrap up on Slide 21 before opening the line up for questions. Overall, our strategy remains unchanged, while the industry navigates the near-term headwinds. We'll continue to provide flexible, high-performance, cost-effective solutions to our customers that enable the transition to the electrified software-defined vehicle. We remain focused on thought execution and operational excellence, which enables us to delight our customers while optimizing our cost structure to expand margins and deliver value to our shareholders.
We executed well in the first quarter and are laser focus on continuing to execute, which will position us well for the remainder of the year. Operator, let's now open the line for questions.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] And we will take our first question from John Murphy with Bank of America.
John Murphy:
Just wanted to ask first on the customer side and then second on automation. Just first on the customer side, Kevin, the wins with the Japanese OEMs and the radar and to the high voltage on the hybrid side, sounds like a real positive. I was just curious if you can comment about where you stand with the Japanese because as I understand, they're very small in the book of business right now, but are they growing?
And then also just on the Chinese OEMs, you mentioned that they were looking for locally sourced semiconductors, which I guess makes kind of sense. But it just kind of, I think, makes people nervous that they might be looking for more locally supplied everything. And I'm just curious how they view you, Aptiv, as a supplier as being sort of a local or maybe a U.S. kind of a supplier to Japanese and Chinese potentials?
Kevin P. Clark:
John, I guess we had your second half of the question. The first half, you broke up a little bit with respect to, I think, it was a mix of electrification bookings or revenues.
John Murphy:
No. On the first part of the question is the potential with the Japanese, right? I mean it sounds like you're making more headway there than you have in the past on the radar and then the high voltage just on the hybrid side. So it sounds like there's a real opportunity there that's beginning to grow.
Kevin P. Clark:
Listen, let me start with the second part of the question or the second question, and I'll come back to the first. As it relates to the Chinese OEMs, especially the Chinese local OEMs, the reality is they are looking for local sources. And it's one of their objectives to localize the supply chain. As you know, we've had this conversation. We've been in China for close to 30 years and have operated in China to serve the China market. So I think it's best as possible that you view us as a local supplier given the fact that we have fully localized capability for that particular market.
Our customers have come to us asking us to make sure that we focus on developing the, call it, Tier 2, Tier 3 supply chain to provide them with solutions. As you can imagine, given some of the geopolitics, they are especially focused on the semiconductor space. So that is an area just again, given the strength of our supply chain and our historical presence in the market we had some capabilities over the last 2 years especially post the semiconductor crisis in 2021 and 2022. We doubled down on enhancing our capabilities in that particular market. I think I've mentioned previously, we're partnering with over a dozen semiconductor manufacturers in China to deliver their solutions to the automotive market in China. And that's from SoC down to the peripheral sort of semiconductor chips, so that' an area of focus. Alternatively, we have a number of non-Chinese OEMs who are very focused on cost reduction and material savings. We're presenting these opportunity to several of them are interested in the options, and we'll report out when we actually have commercial OEMs [indiscernible]. As it relates to the Japanese -- recent Japanese awards, especially on the ADAS side as well as on the plug-in hybrid and BEV side, listen, over the last couple of years, we've been increasingly focused on Japanese OEMs, especially Japanese OEMs and the Japanese market. So I think it's the net result of the progress we've made. And quite frankly, the momentum we've built with several of the players like Honda, like Nissan. And now we're starting to make progress with the largest Japanese OEM. So...
John Murphy:
And just one quick follow-up on the automation comment. I mean you said 30% by 2026, 50% by 2030. I mean what's the baseline that we're starting from now? And what would that mean as far as labor as a percent of total sales? I'm just trying to understand if this is a cost savings program, cost mitigation program or just what you're going to have to do going forward?
Kevin P. Clark:
It's really -- it's all of the above. So it solves the problem related to availability of labor. It solves a problem as it relates to cost of labor and quite frankly, it solves a problem of complexity of overall vehicle architecture in the past to more of a software-defined vehicle smart vehicle architecture. Those savings are as a percent of labor hours. So I don't have off hand the average number of labor hours on an average wire harness, but it's a 30% reduction in those labor hours. So it would be a significant cost savings, as you can imagine.
John Murphy:
And baseline on automation right now that we should think about?
Kevin P. Clark:
Baseline right now, we're running at roughly 15%.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Itay Michaeli with Citi.
Itay Michaeli:
Just 2 questions on my end. First, on the Gen 6 award, can you maybe share kind of what the CPV on that award is, maybe what the rest of the pipeline looks like? Could this award now catalyze additional wins. And second, maybe just -- it looks like you're sticking with the long-term 6- to 8-point GOM framework. Maybe talk a little bit about that? Is there maybe now a bias more towards the lower end of the range? Or could GOM potentially even accelerate next year?
Kevin P. Clark:
I'll answer the first question, maybe Joe can answer the second. As it relates to the Gen 6 ADS award, I don't want to give specifics because from, as you can imagine, from a pricing standpoint and somewhat sensitive commercially and competitively. We've talked in the past about L2+ sort of L3 content per vehicle -- this particular program in addition to our ADAS platform has our in-cabin sensing solution as well as the full suite of Wind River both embedded and studio solutions. So as you think about that, you should think about it being roughly in that traditional range that we've talked about, given what we're doing from an AI/ML standpoint with our radar solution, given our overall approach to sensor fusion. I guess we've talked in the past, our overall Gen6 ADAS platform can deliver anywhere between 15% to 30% savings to our customers, depending upon the configuration of the platform. So it's a very competitive solution.
Joseph Massaro:
And Itay, it's Joe on growth over market, yes, since with the prepared remarks, I think we're closer to the 6% of that range based on how we see 2024 today. Obviously, too early to rack up 2025, particularly with just some of the dynamics we've seen in customer schedules over the past -- really, over the past month. But I would think it's within that 6% to 8% range. I certainly wouldn't go up above that at this point.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Joe Spak with UBS.
Joseph Spak:
Joe, maybe to start, just AS and UX margins in the quarter, really strong, I think, a large surprise versus Street expectations. Anything going on there specifically in the quarter we should think about? And how should we think about the margins in that business over the balance of the year?
Joseph Massaro:
Yes, Joe, I would say nothing stands out in the quarter from a sort of a one-off perspective, certainly nothing material. I would say we've been working very hard on those margins for a long period of time, as you know, with both the supplier side of things and then taking cost out of the business. We have some cost actions that we put in place last year. This engineering rotation has been going on for a period of time. So you'll -- I think you're talking about sort of seeing the high 10%, call it, 10.5% to 11% margin in that business being maintained certainly for the full year. It's going to be -- it's a little lumpy. Q3 is obviously a little lower for us at times. But I think that's where we're starting to see this business and should come out of the year, call it, in the mid-10%.
Joseph Spak:
Okay. And Kevin, I just want to go back to the China conversation and a couple of things here because, obviously, there's a lot of volatility. There's a lot of new players. You see emerging players like Xiaomi and Huawei. So maybe you could sort of give us a sense of how you think your positioning is with some of even the new emerging players? And we all saw the news about VW and Xpeng on the electrical architecture. What does that mean for your prospects going forward in China back to John's question about one competitiveness, I guess, of vehicles in China, but also a desire for Chinese supply chain.
Kevin P. Clark:
Yes. Listen, as you know, as I said, we've been in the China market for a long period of time and clearly, the market has rotated from dominance by the multinational joint ventures to a much stronger localized Chinese -- only local Chinese OEMs. Over the past 3 or 4 years, we've talked about the rotation of our bookings and the mix of our bookings significantly rotating from the multinationals to the locals. I think over the last couple of years or so, our bookings -- dollar value of our bookings is lawfully matched, the mix change between the Chinese locals and the multinational JVs. We're still a little bit behind that from a revenue standpoint, but it's well over 50% that now is with the local Chinese OEMs. A significant portion of our bookings last year and this year, we'll be with the Chinese locals. So that's an area where we think we'll continue to close that gap over the next 12 to 24 months from a revenue standpoint.
There are several of those the leading Chinese local OEMs who are very focused on export to Europe and possibly to North America as well as manufacturing in Europe and North America. I would say we are working now with virtually all of those who are entertaining that who are looking for supply solutions that meet the requirements of the European and the U.S. markets, which tend to be a little bit different from what's in the China market. So we feel like we're well positioned for both growth in China as well as very well positioned as they decide to either export or move production outside of China, Joe.
Joseph Spak:
Okay. Maybe just one quick follow-up. I know you mentioned that the mix of business within China is sort of moving, and it sounds like it's now over 50-50. But what about like if we just think about your overall bookings, like what percent of that is domestic China? Do you have a sense?
Kevin P. Clark:
Yes. In China, we're running the exact number or probably close to 70% local bookings versus the multinational JVs. Last year, we were up over -- well over 60%. So it's been certainly moving in that direction. And it should I guess a year to 2 years.
Joseph Spak:
Sorry, like of the $34 billion, $35 billion or whatever, like how much of that is China is local Chinese players?
Kevin P. Clark:
Take 70% of $6 billion. So...
Operator:
We'll go next to Chris McNally with Evercore.
Chris McNally:
Two questions, one pretty simple. Just Joe, you mentioned new margin for [ AS ] at 10.5%. Does that sort of imply we think SPS is probably on the lower end of something more like 12% to 13%. That's probably where you have more of the pace of exposure.
Joseph Massaro:
Yes, 1 second. Chris. Let me make sure I give you the right number. SPS 11.2% in Q1, yes, I would say you're in the, call it, 12% to 12.5% for coming out of the year.
Chris McNally:
And then the same, the growth over market split, ASUX probably high single digit and SPS because of the high voltage now at 5%. Is that closer to 3% or 3% to 4%? What's the split on growth over market...
Joseph Massaro:
I'd say low to mid-single digits on SPS, yes.
Chris McNally:
Perfect. And then the second question is a bigger question. When I think about capital allocation, obviously, $1.5 billion for the buyback this year, use words like opportunistic. Obviously, your stock at a very low multiple. But when I look at the free cash flow generation over the next couple of years, anywhere from $1.2 billion this year to $2 billion in the next couple of years, could this sort of level of buyback or sort of this new priority be something that stays for a multiyear basis? Traditionally, you've been a lot more acquisitive or bolt-on the large acquisitions. So I'm just curious if this could be something that's more sustainable higher level buyback for a multiyear basis, at least until the stock rerates.
Kevin P. Clark:
Yes, Chris, I think at current levels, it's fair to assume we continue to buy back stock at fairly healthy levels. The reality is we view our stock is undervalued. Obviously, we'd like to see stock price appreciation and important part of what we're trying to do is to build out our capabilities in and around the software stack as we've talked about, and quite frankly, diversify our revenues further in the industrial markets as well. So we would like to assume that there's a fair amount of acquisition activity that happens during 2024, 2025 and beyond.
Operator:
We'll move next to Shreyas Patil with Wolfe Research.
Shreyas Patil:
Maybe just thinking about where the underlying growth rate is for the business today. So you're pointing to 6 points of growth over market for this year. I know there are a lot of puts and takes, but I think in the bridge that you had provided last quarter, it implied about maybe 2 points of tailwinds from price recoveries, for example, that were tied to semiconductor inflation last year. But there are also mix headwinds in China, where it sounds like you're mitigating with new launches. So just trying to get a sense of where the underlying rate of growth is today as you see it.
Joseph Massaro:
Yes, sure. I'm not sure I get the pricing comment or the recovery comment. But listen, I think our long-term view, the framework is 6% to 8% in a flat market, right? So that growth over market is generally consistent with the adjusted growth rate.
Obviously, we move a bit with vehicle production. We're obviously working through the high voltage headwind at the moment. We've seen those schedules come down. But as I talked about in my prepared remarks, we're seeing good hybrid growth. We're seeing the internal combustion volumes come back up. So -- and Kevin talked about, from a portfolio perspective, sort of fully capable of servicing all powertrains. There's really no capability or product line that we lack from that perspective.
Shreyas Patil:
Okay. I guess then from thinking about the incremental performance savings that you're expecting this year, are those tied to the automation initiatives you're talking about? Or is that more of the footprint actions like in SPS?
Joseph Massaro:
Automation will be longer term, as Kevin talked about. We've -- at the end of last year, second half of last year, really started to focus on -- and again, right, the business has changed a bit. So if it shouldn't surprise folks. We've looked at the cost structure. We've had a salaried overhead reduction, took out some overhead. We always do that.
We've been pretty vigilant over the past 10 years at least of managing that cost structure. And really, what you're seeing now is the benefits of that as well as what we talked about at Investor Day. I mean, I appreciate the high-voltage revenues come off. But a lot of other things we talked about at our Investor Day are on track, right? We talked about that engineering rotation. We talked about getting engineering down as a percent of sales. We talked about, as you'll recall, that performance bucket with a few hundred million dollars of performance initiatives every year between '23, '24 and '25. And we are ticking the boxes on those, and that's where you're seeing that margin improvement.
Shreyas Patil:
Okay. And then maybe just a quick last one is just on FX. You didn't see much of an impact in the quarter, but it looks like the headwind's going to be for the rest of the year. I mean last year, when we saw the peso strengthening was kind of the opposite effect where it was largely impacting you in Q1. So maybe just trying to think about how much of that FX impact is peso versus RMB? Just trying to get a sense of that.
Joseph Massaro:
RMB's in there. The peso is the more significant. Listen, I think you got to distinguish between the actuals year-over-year and the guide, right? The actual -- the peso, unfortunately, in Q1 is pretty consistent with where it was in Q1 of last year between the 16 and low 17s. So that's why there's not a significant impact on a year-over-year basis, comparing actuals to prior year actuals.
The guide we had at MXN 18.25, as I said in my prepared remarks, we expect that peso to strengthen over time. It is obviously not happening. And I think our view, as we do with most macro headwinds, once it's clear, they're not abating, is we put it into the guide and we take out cost to offset it. And that's effectively what we've done. We also, as I said, have a benefit of a hedge we put in place where 90% of our peso exposure is protected below MXN 17, which is why we pegged to the MXN 17 rate.
Operator:
We'll go next to Mark Delaney with Goldman Sachs.
Mark Delaney:
You took your view for high-voltage revenue for '24 to 5% from 20%. Beyond this year, does have to think a 20% CAGR in high-voltage revenue still achievable? And does the composition between BEVs and PHEVs changed at all as you think about the longer-term high voltage outlook?
Kevin P. Clark:
Yes, I'll start with our customers and knowledge with our customers, our customers are still pushing forward with the introduction of battery electric vehicles. So you can hear from their public statements that they're still standing behind them and certainly pushing in that direction.
In addition to that, they're talking about launching incremental plug-in hybrid or hybrid programs as well to augment their overall product portfolio. So likely near-term. Our general view is you'll see a richer mix of plug-in hybrid relative to what we've had historically. On a go-forward basis, from an overall growth rate of electrification, we'll see. Obviously, it's been a couple of challenging quarters as it relates to our high-voltage revenue growth. As Joe and I have mentioned, over back end of the quarter and in April, we saw a significant reduction in schedules. They seem to have stabilized. But as we get closer maybe the middle of the year, we'll be able to give more visibility as to what we think that growth rate looks like. But I think it's fair to assume you're going to see more plug-in hybrid mix relative to battery electric vehicle mix.
Mark Delaney:
Second question I had was on margins. You had your best 1Q EBIT margin, I think, since 2018. Can you talk a little bit more on what led to the margin strength in the first quarter? And specifically, how much of the footprint actions may have contributed?
And typically, 1Q is the seasonal low point for the year, but can you talk about how 1Q may compare to the normal seasonality with EBIT margin is? Is it more of a typical year or something more unusual in 1Q from 2024?
Kevin P. Clark:
Yes. Maybe I'll start. Listen, I think you go back to 2018, we went through COVID 2020, 2021, and then we went through semiconductor challenges. So we had 3 years there that were extremely choppy from an overall operational standpoint and margin standpoint.
We feel like the macro environment is largely at least stabilized from an availability of products to keep the supply chain full. So we're able to operate much more efficiently and effectively as are our customers, as are our suppliers. So it gives us greater ability to plan. As Joe mentioned in his prepared comments, we're always focused on reducing costs, but we did spend a year or so really focused on keeping our customers connected. And since 2023, when things stabilize, we've been really, really hyper-focused on how do we significantly reduce our cost structure that through operational initiatives within the four walls of our plants as well as initiatives in our engineering factory as well as continuing to reduce our overall overhead. So I think I mentioned, we reduced payroll -- salary payroll last year over 10% by delayering, by consolidating, by making the organization operate more efficiently, that's something we'll continue to do. Typically, this is a business where you see margin expansion from first half to back half because back half tends to have more production than the first half than the first half does. We'll see how this year plays out. There's a little less clarity right now as we sit here based on what we've seen over the last month, but we'd expect to see continued operating improvements, including continued performance improvement really across all aspects of our cost structure. So it's everything. It's really everything.
Operator:
We'll go next to Dan Levy with Barclays.
Dan Levy:
Wondering if you could just address a couple of points on active safety. Any voice over on the solid results in the quarter, I think it was up 25% or so?
And then is the expectation to still see 20% plus growth in ADAS for the year? Are you still seeing launches content growth intact?
Kevin P. Clark:
Yes. Yes. So as Joe mentioned, we're launching across -- we're launching both new programs as well as launching existing programs across a broader set of models within OEMs. There continues to be increasing significant consumer demand for active safety solutions. It's something that our customers are clearly looking for. So it continues to be an area that we believe we'll see strong revenue growth.
Joseph Massaro:
Dan, it's Joe. We'll be -- we're forecasting 20% plus a little bit over 20% for the year. So we'll have a -- like things as we go back to just the old way the business is historically run. It won't show perfectly straight every quarter, but we go into some very heavy launch activity, as I said in my prepared remarks in the back half of the year -- launches run up and then ebb a bit.
But no, that business is strong, and we see that continuing. As Kevin mentioned, we had close to $2 billion of bookings in this quarter alone on active safety. So we continue to see very strong traction on active safety.
Dan Levy:
Great. And then as a follow-up, wondering if you could just provide some comments on the price versus inflation dynamics. Inflation, and you talked to some incremental inflation coming into the cost structure this year. Is that coming in as planned?
And then how much pricing did you get in 1Q? And what's the pricing outlook for the year? Are we back to sort of typical 1.5%, 2% price down? Is there any offset that you're getting in your commercial discussion?
Joseph Massaro:
Yes. Dan, I would say the dynamics move from direct material inflation to very much labor inflation. But we're obviously in discussions with customers around issues, around labor inflation. Some of that's recovery. Some of that, as Kevin mentioned, is going to be leaving places like Mexico that are becoming too expensive, and reducing labor in those places to Kevin's point on automation.
So I would say we've seen significant slowdown in sort of those direct material costs that needed to be passed through with customers, and it's more of an inflation discussion around labor and those -- there's a couple of levers we have to pull on those. And like we talked about, we've started to take cost actions to deal with it, and I think there'll be a number of things that you see. I think long-term, and we've said this for a while, we'll return to that net price was right around 1.7% before all the material inflation. We expect that to continue long-term. I'd have that in the outlook. But I think labor inflation is something we'll deal with both at the customer level to the extent customers don't want to relocate facilities or get serviced out of other countries will have increases. And in other cases, we will move the plants.
Dan Levy:
Got it. And then just within the quarter, what was the pricing? Because I said price commodities was one bucket.
Joseph Massaro:
Price commodities, because you got the copper inflation in there as well was -- it was about $35 million positive on the revenue line.
Operator:
We'll go our next question from Adam Jonas with Morgan Stanley.
Adam Jonas:
So Kevin and Joe, nobody knows electrical vehicle architecture and active safety, combined, better than you. I mean nobody. So I'd be curious, in your opinion, from a user experience and from a capability perspective, do you see an advantage of Level 2+ systems fitted to a software-defined electric vehicle versus the capability and experience of the same system attached to an internal combustion nonsoftware-defined vehicle system?
Kevin P. Clark:
Yes, that's an interesting question. I'm not sure -- and if the consumer experience ultimately would be better on an electric vehicle with a BEV vehicle architecture versus this architecture around an internal combustion engine.
I think what we would say ultimately is the BEV architecture would be more optimized and ultimately would allow for savings both from an architecture standpoint and from an ADAS system standpoint, right, and would enable a much more optimized vehicle architecture, hardware architecture as well software architecture. So it would provide more flexibility as it relates to upgrades, enhancements, things like that, it would make it easier. And maybe the way I would translate easier is into more cost effective. So that's one of the kind of our views as we take a step back, we can't perfectly predict the timing of all aspects of the future, but we still believe there's a significant momentum towards electrification, towards smart vehicle architecture, towards a software-defined vehicle. And it all comes down to performance and cost, and there's an element of gravity there.
Adam Jonas:
I appreciate that, Kevin. And I'm also -- just as a follow-up, people in the robotics community are describing 2 years ago as the good old days and that there seems to be a revolution in the last couple of years with large language models and GenAI now rolled into multimodal models with visual learning models to help autonomous systems and robotics learn faster and better without as much of the rules based to really kind of attach to the flywheel of AI.
I'm sorry if I'm speaking in platitudes here, but I think you know exactly what I'm talking about. I'd be curious if, a, you agree that there have been some profound changes in AI's role of on robots in a car form factor, which is something you enable, and how that might be changing the decisions that you make and how your capital is deployed?
Kevin P. Clark:
Yes. It's -- that's a great question and a complex question. Listen, I agree that AI/ML is changing. it's changed a number of things. And you're right, it actually changed how we approach a number of the products that we develop like radar solutions, right, is a great example, any perception solutions. So I think it's a pretty easy argument to make today that the utilization of tools like AI/ML allows the advancement to move much faster at a much lower cost. And we're seeing that and we're benefiting from that. And that's one of the big benefits about this Gen 6 ADAS platform that we've talked about.
Use of AI/ML allows us to drive down the cost of the perception system, which allows us to actually reduce the compute on this particular platform and reduce cost. I think one of the items that -- so we're using AI/ML. One of the items that we think is somewhat unique relative to the automotive industry, and I guess one could debate whether it's necessary or not, but the concept of safety and traceability and the complexity that things like AI/ML can introduce to that in terms of lack of traceability, makes that calculus a bit more complex. And when we sit down with our customers today and talk about how systems that are integrated operate, they want to know why things or how things fail or how they can determine things fail. Now we'll see if that changes at some point in time in the future. But now it needs to be a balance between an element of the traditional rules based and a full AI -- generative AI/ML based.
Operator:
And we will take our final question from Tom Narayan with RBC.
Gautam Narayan:
I'll try to be real quick. On SPS, 3 powertrains, you talked about ICE, hybrid, plug-in hybrid. Europe seems to be growing more a lot of hybrid growth. China is more plug-in hybrid, let's say, maybe the U.S. is more ICE. Just curious, as these kind of dynamics change, how does that impact your guys S and PS business? Is it easy to pivot? Is there kind of retooling involved to try to change these different powertrains? Or is it just really just straightforward?
Kevin P. Clark:
It's a different product line. So it's pure BEV product. So whether it's a bus bar or it's a connector for a battery electric vehicle or a harness, it tends to have a specific set of equipment with specific tools. A lot of those are within existing facilities that we had to produce products for both low voltage as well as high-voltage solutions. So there's some ability to pivot there.
When you think plug-in hybrid and hybrid, there's some overlap between that product portfolio that goes on a BEV vehicle that would also go on a plug-in hybrid or hybrid vehicle. So there's some work that needs to be done, but it depends on the specific situation and oftentimes, it's not real significant to shift from one to the other.
Joseph Massaro:
Yes, it's not something outsized, Tom, that you'd see like pop up in CapEx or something. I think it could be managed within the existing business and financial framework.
Gautam Narayan:
Yes. The other thing that's come up, there's some pretty big legacy OEMs who reported results this past week, commenting on their efforts to like reduce their dealer inventory levels. We saw some big just general production cuts in the quarter. I mean they're all saying they're going to do big H2s. But I'm just curious if you're seeing or hearing any just overall high-level downside to overall global production, which would impact all powertrains?
Kevin P. Clark:
Yes, that's -- we brought our outlook for vehicle production down a point. The biggest piece of that is that is BEV related, as Joe and I have talked about. There are some OEMs that we've seen an increase in production schedules for products that have internal combustion engines, but net-net, BEV production is down.
Joseph Massaro:
Yes. As I said in my prepared comments, Tom, April was a month of schedules coming down with a few exceptions. There are some ICE platforms that popped up. But I would say both legacy global OEMs and global EV-only OEMs, we saw schedules come down in the past 4 or 5 weeks and that's really what -- that's what is driving the takedown in the top line.
Operator:
That will conclude the Q&A session. I'd like to turn the conference back to Kevin Clark for any additional or closing comments.
Kevin P. Clark:
Thank you, everyone, for taking the time today to listen to our earnings call. I apologize for the technical problem at the start. Take care and have a good day.
Operator:
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, that will conclude today's call. We thank you for your participation. You may disconnect at this time.
Operator:
Good day, and welcome to the Aptiv's Q4 2023 Earnings Call. Today's conference is being recorded. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Jane Wu, Vice President of Investor Relations and Corporate Development. Please go ahead, ma'am.
Jane Wu:
Thank you, Jenny. Good morning, and thank you for joining Aptiv's fourth quarter 2023 earnings conference call. The press release and related tables, along with the slide presentation, can be found on the Investor Relations portion of our website at aptiv.com. Today's review of our financials exclude amortization, restructuring and other special items and will address the continuing operations of Aptiv. The reconciliations between GAAP and non-GAAP measures for our fourth quarter and full year 2023 results as well as our 2024 outlook are included at the back of the slide presentation and earnings press release. During today's call, we will be providing certain forward-looking information that reflects Aptiv's current view of future financial performance and may be materially different for reasons that we cite in our Form 10-K and other SEC filings. Joining us today will be Kevin Clark, Aptiv's Chairman and CEO; and Joe Massaro, CFO and Senior Vice President of Business Operations. Kevin will provide a strategic update on the business, and Joe will cover the financial results in more detail before we open the call for Q&A. With that, I'd like to turn the call over to Kevin Clark.
Kevin Clark:
Thank you, Jane, and thanks everyone for joining us this morning. Let's begin on Slide 3. Aptiv ended the year on a solid note with fourth quarter results broadly in-line with our expectations, demonstrating our ability to execute in a less predictable market. Touching on a few highlights, new business bookings reached $7.7 billion, the result of continued demand for our portfolio of industry-leading advanced technologies; revenue was $4.9 billion, with growth over market impacted by the UAW strike and customer mix, which Joe will go through in more detail later; operating income totaled $600 million, reflecting a 90 basis point margin increase; the strong flow-through on volumes and operating performance more than offset headwinds from FX, commodities, and the UAW strike; we repurchased $300 million of stock during the quarter, given our share price and cash position. In summary, our team is doing an exceptional job executing in a fast-changing environment, identifying opportunities to provide solutions to our customers, while at the same time, working to mitigate headwinds from ongoing cost pressures. Turning to Slide 4, we delivered on our commitments and achieved record results in 2023, despite having to navigate through unexpected developments. New business bookings were a record $34 billion, reflecting continued strong demand for our products. As vehicles become higher contented and more software defined, customers are increasingly seeing the value of Aptiv as an important technology partner, particularly across our smart vehicle architecture, active safety and high voltage electrification portfolio, where we lead the industry in delivering high-performance, flexible and cost-effective solutions. Aptiv is also positioned to benefit from the transition to the software-defined future across several other industries, with opportunities accelerating in the telecom, aerospace and defense, and industrial markets. Revenue increased 12% to over $20 billion in 2023, a new record level, principally driven by our high-growth active safety and high voltage product lines. Strong top-line growth contributed to a record $2.1 billion of operating income, operating margin increased 150 basis points to 10.6% as strong volume flow-through and operating performance more than offset the headwinds from FX, commodities and the UAW strike. Lastly, we generated record operating cash flow of $1.9 billion for the year, providing flexibility around capital deployment, allowing us to proactively repurchase shares and pay down debt. Moving to Slide 5, as I already mentioned, bookings reached $34 billion, our third consecutive year of record new business awards, and includes nine different customers, who each awarded Aptiv over $1 billion in new business. Advanced Safety and User Experience bookings totaled a record $12 billion, driven by active safety bookings of $3.4 billion, representing a combination of next-gen hardware and perception software building blocks, as well as full system turnkey solutions. The strength of which is reflected in over $11 billion of cumulative bookings over the last three years, and $5.2 billion of customer awards for our smart vehicle architecture solutions with three different OEMs, bringing cumulative awards since the launch of our SVA products to over $10 billion with eight different OEMs. Signal and Power Solutions new business bookings reached a record of over $22 billion, in part due to a record $6.2 billion in high voltage electrification bookings, up roughly $2 billion over 2022, representing awards from both traditional and new mobility providers, bringing cumulative high voltage customer awards to roughly $14 billion since 2021. Our industry-leading portfolio, combined with our global reach and ability to execute highly complex programs, perfectly positions Aptiv to win new business and gives us a clear line of sight to $35 billion of business awards in 2024. Turning to Slide 6 to review our Advanced Safety and User Experience segment's full year highlights. We achieved significant commercial success across all of our key product lines, further solidifying our position as a partner of choice with our OEM customers. Building on its leading market position, Wind River continues to experience solid commercial traction across a variety of end markets. In the fourth quarter, one of Canada's largest communication service providers selected Wind River Studio for their full O-RAN deployment in North America. OMRON, a leader in healthcare systems and industrial automation, also chose Wind River Studio for their industrial edge platform development. And within automotive, Hyundai Mobis expanded their existing relationship with Wind River by selecting Wind River Studio to help reduce development time and costs from product design to system validation and mass production testing. Demand for Aptiv's full system solutions across active safety, user experience and smart vehicle architecture also remains strong, with major bookings across all geographic regions, including with Japanese OEMs and emerging Chinese local players, bringing a growing pipeline of additional opportunities. To best support our customers, while further optimizing our cost structure, we implemented several initiatives across our engineering and supply chain functions. To accelerate and streamline our product development process, our AS&UX engineers have incorporated Wind River Studio's DevSecOps toolchain into their programs. We've also centralized our engineering activities in India to a new and larger technology center in Bangalore, where Aptiv and Wind River teams can better collaborate on our software product platforms, allowing us to double our engineering capacity in the country, thereby enabling the cost effective rotation of our engineering footprint. From a supply chain perspective, we're on track to fully map our global supply chain into a digital twin by year-end. During 2023, we fully mapped our semi providers, increasing our visibility and improving our ability to proactively mitigate potential sourcing risks. Lastly, we've closely partnered with roughly a dozen local Chinese semiconductor suppliers for both China and non-China applications that are positioning us to meet increasing demand from our Chinese customers with local sources of supply and increasing the resiliency and flexibility of our supply chain for our global OEM customers. Turning to Signal and Power Solutions' full year highlights on Slide 7. From a commercial perspective, we've continued to benefit from our industry-leading portfolio and global scale, which uniquely positions us to deliver optimized vehicle architecture solutions for both emerging EV players and leading global OEMs. During 2023, we were awarded significant vehicle architecture programs by a global EV manufacturer, including optimized electrical distribution and 48 volt connection systems. In China, while we remain highly selective in our customer and platform choices, we're actively driving increased penetration of a select group of local OEMs. In 2023, bookings with China local OEMs reached $3 billion, representing approximately 60% of the total SPS bookings in the region. Intercable Automotive had record new business awards and added four new global customers with their industry-leading busbar technology, which enables more efficient power distribution and optimized battery pack design. We've also seen an increase in customer demand for our solutions that reduce complexity, weight and cost, including our integrated power electronics solutions, which help integrate the onboard charger, battery distribution unit and DC to DC converter. From an operational perspective, we've also implemented several initiatives to improve manufacturing efficiency. Within our electrical distribution business, we're launching our first highly automated production line, covering all aspects of system assembly. With this new technology, we expect to increase current automation levels to approximately 30% by 2026, putting us on a path to over 50% automation by 2030, which will improve efficiency and product quality, while also reducing labor dependency and the associated exposure to inflationary pressures. At the same time, we've been building a more resilient and sustainable business by supporting the trend towards local production and minimizing cross-border flows of product. We continue to pursue manufacturing footprint rotations in multiple regions and have successfully established production capabilities for Intercable Automotive in North America to serve in-region customers. Turning to Slide 8, at this year's Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas, we showcased our industry-leading portfolio of products through a full range of functional, fully integrated solutions, both in our tech theater, as well as on the roads with drivable demo vehicles. This is best represented by our software defined vehicle demonstrator, which showcased advanced ADAS and user experience applications, embedded on Wind River's cloud native software platform and running on Aptiv smart vehicle architecture hardware. With our first time driving a vehicle -- this was our first time driving a vehicle on public roads, supported by SVA, further reinforcing our leadership in next-generation architectures. We demonstrated critical elements of our Gen 6 ADAS platform, including our urban point-to-point hands-free driving application, as well as in-cabin monitoring. We also showcased our high voltage capabilities with a custom-built 800-volt electric vehicle. This vehicle included optimized high voltage cabling and busbars, connection systems, and integrated power electronics. We also introduced Aptiv's containerized battery management system running on our central vehicle controller, both of which were supported by Wind River's VxWorks operating system, while telemetric data was visualized through Wind River Studio. Finally, all these solutions and more were available for deep dives in our technology theater. When taken together, the solutions on display represented our full system portfolio by showcasing capabilities from sensor to cloud. In total, we had over 1,000 stakeholders visit our pavilion, ranging across customers, vendors and the industry partners. And as a follow up to CES, we scheduled a wide range of customer engagements, including the Mobile World Congress in late February and customer-focused tech shows during the balance of this year. Our industry-leading product portfolio underscores our position as the partner of choice to develop and deliver next-generation solutions. Moving to Slide 9, before I turn the call over to Joe to walk through the financials, I wanted to provide some context on our outlook for 2024. As our industries continue to evolve, we're experiencing growing demand for our full system capabilities, spanning across hardware and edge to cloud software solutions. This increasing level of strategic engagement has turned into three straight years of record new business bookings, and in turn, will continue to drive strong revenue growth and implied growth above market. Joe will walk through our outlook for revenue growth in more detail, but we now expect our growth over market to be in the 6 point to 8 point range, reflecting the changing pace of EV adoption and customer mix. As I highlighted earlier, we have proactively taken actions to reduce our cost structure, to adapt to the changing market environment and to help offset ongoing inflationary pressures. We remain disciplined in our capital allocation approach, which will include further strengthening our competitive position with investments in advanced technology and capabilities that drive operational excellence. To that end, while our Motional joint venture continues to make progress on their technology roadmap, we've decided to no longer allocate capital to Motional and are pursuing alternatives to further reduce our ownership interest. Lastly, while we will continue to prioritize organic investments and strategic M&A opportunities that drive profitable growth, our stock price presents an attractive opportunity to return capital to our shareholders, and we're targeting up to an additional $750 million in share repurchases during 2024. The last few years have presented the industry with unprecedented macro challenges, including COVID and supply chain disruptions. During this period, the management team has remained laser-focused on execution, enhancing our competitive position and increasing the resiliency of our business model, which is reflected in our 2023 financial results and our outlook for 2024, and our conviction in the long-term value of our business is higher than ever, and we remain committed to delivering that value to our shareholders. With that, I will now turn the call over to Joe to go through the numbers in more detail.
Joe Massaro:
Thanks, Kevin, and good morning, everyone. Starting with a recap of the quarter on Slide 10. Revenues were $4.9 billion, in-line with our expectations, including the impact of the UAW strike in October. Adjusted growth in the quarter was 2% over the prior year, representing negative growth over market of 5% in the quarter. As Kevin noted, and I will discuss in more detail, the growth over market primarily resulted from the impact of the UAW strike and North American OEM production mix, as well as customer mix in China and slower high voltage growth. Adjusted EBITDA and operating income of $772 million and $600 million, respectively, in-line with our expectations. Operating income margins expanded 90 basis points versus prior year, reflecting strong flow-through on incremental volumes, the benefit of customer recoveries of direct material increases and strong operating performance, including the benefit of cost saving actions taken in the second half of 2023, offsetting the impact of the strike, which totaled approximately $50 million in the quarter, and foreign exchange was a 20-basis point headwind in the quarter. EPS was $1.40, an increase of 10%, driven by higher operating income, partially offset by interest and tax expense. Operating cash flow totaled $624 million, and capital expenditures were approximately $200 million for the quarter. During the fourth quarter, we repurchased $300 million of stock, bringing full year repurchases to approximately $400 million. Looking at revenue in more detail on Slide 11. As noted, revenue in the fourth quarter was $4.9 billion, reflecting sales growth of $188 million, a favorable $62 million contribution from net price downs and commodities and foreign exchange tailwinds of approximately $29 million. From a regional perspective, North American revenues were down 7% or 11% below market, driven in part by the UAW strike impact, which totaled $100 million in October. In addition, as we cautioned during the fourth quarter, foreign manufacturers, primarily the Japanese OEMs with whom we do not have significant content, experienced very strong year-over-year production growth in the quarter, further impacting the relative production mix in the North American market. In Europe, adjusted growth was 6%, in-line with vehicle production, driven by active safety growth of 18%, partially offset by slower high voltage growth in the region. And in China, revenues were up 12%, driven by SPS growth with local OEMs. China growth over market was 8 points below vehicle production, primarily impacted by lower production at multinational joint venture customers, as well as slower high voltage growth of 4% in the quarter. As I will discuss in more detail shortly, we do expect growth over market to increase in 2024 from the second half 2023 levels. Moving to the AS&UX segment on the next slide. Revenue growth was flat in the quarter. Active safety growth was 11% despite the UAW strike, which primarily impacted the active safety product line in North America. User experience was down 16% in the quarter, driven in large part by the previously noted China customer mix shift, impacting our user experience volumes with multinational joint venture OEMs in China. For the full year, adjusted revenue growth was 17% with strong active safety growth of 29% and user experience growth of 4%. Segment adjusted operating in the quarter was $141 million, up 83% over prior year, despite the negative strike impact of $10 million in the quarter. Operating income margins expanded 440 basis points to 10.4% as performance and cost savings initiatives offset higher labor costs. Full year operating income and margins were in-line with our original expectations, as margins improved by almost 40 basis points, inclusive of a full year strike impact of $15 million. As we have previously discussed, given the nature of the AS&UX business and the timing of certain customer reimbursements and engineering credits, the quarterly profitability of the business is cyclical and weighted to the fourth quarter. We would expect this trend to continue in 2024. Turning to Signal and Power on Slide 13, revenue in the fourth quarter was $3.6 billion, an increase of 3% or 4% below vehicle production. As anticipated, overall SPS growth over market was impacted in North America by the UAW strike and OEM mix, representing approximately 5 points of growth in the quarter. Lower high voltage growth, which primarily impacted the European region, was lower by 2 points. For the full year, adjusted revenue growth was 11% despite the impact of the strike. High voltage growth was approximately 20% for the year and segment growth in China was 13%. Segment adjusted operating income was $459 million in the quarter, up 3% from prior year, despite a $40 million or 90 basis point strike impact. Operating performance was strong, including the benefit of lower supply chain disruption costs, offsetting the impact of higher labor and other costs. Customer recoveries offset the impact of material inflation and commodities in the quarter, and foreign exchange continued to present a headwind, equal to 60 basis points on a year-over-year basis. Full year operating margins were up 50 basis points despite the significant headwinds related to foreign exchange and the strike. Turning now to Slide 14 and 2024 macro expectations. We are forecasting global vehicle production to be flat for the year, reflecting approximately 93 million units. Regionally, we expect North America to be up approximately 1% at 16.5 million units, Europe down 2% or approximately 18 million units, and China flat at approximately 30 million units. While we remain cautious about the impact of macroeconomic and geopolitical factors, we do believe that supply chain constraints have improved significantly, and based on what we see today, should not have a significant impact on overall customer production levels. Our macro assumptions also assume copper at $4, Mexican Peso at 18.25, the Euro at 110 and the RMB at 7. Moving to Slide 15 and our 2024 full year outlook. We expect revenue in the range of $21.3 billion to $21.9 billion, up 7% at the midpoint compared to 2023, reflecting 7 points of growth over market. EBITDA and operating income are expected to be approximately $3.28 billion and $2.55 billion at the midpoint, reflecting strong flow-through on volume growth, continued margin expansion in higher growth product lines, and operating performance and cost reduction initiatives to offset increasing labor headwinds, including higher-than-expected labor inflation in Mexico, as well as the stronger Peso. Adjusted earnings per share is estimated to be between $5.55 and $6.05. EPS growth of 19% is primarily driven by strong earnings and lower interest expense, partially offset by an increase in the expected tax rate to 17.5%. As I will discuss further, we are targeting share repurchases of $750 million in 2024 and have reflected a full year benefit estimate of $0.05 per share at the midpoint of our guidance. As it relates to Motional, as Kevin mentioned earlier, Aptiv will not participate in future funding rounds. Despite the continued progress made by the Motional team on their technology roadmap, given the pushout of the commercialization of the Level 4/5 robo-taxi business model, we no longer believe capital allocation to Motional is appropriate for Aptiv. In addition, we are also exploring steps to reduce a significant portion of our common equity holdings. Working within the construct of the joint venture agreement, we will look to sell or otherwise reduce our holdings during 2024, reducing the dilutive earnings per share impact of the Motional losses on Aptiv's earnings. Given that the exact timing of the reduction in shareholdings is not yet known, we have included the expected full year impact of Motional's losses in our current outlook
Kevin Clark:
Thanks, Joe. I'll wrap up on Slide 20 before opening the line up for questions. As the management team reflects on 2023, we expect the pace of innovation to continue to accelerate and drive ongoing transformation across industries. Aptiv is perfectly positioned to benefit from this change, having identified the safe, green and connected megatrends over a decade ago. We have purpose built our portfolio to provide flexible, high-performance and cost-effective solutions that address our customers greatest challenges, all on a global scale. At the same time, we remain committed to flawless execution and operational excellence, enabling us to unlock incremental profitability and deliver value to our shareholders. In closing, I am proud of what the Aptiv team accomplished during 2023, and I'm excited about what we will deliver in the years ahead. Operator, let's now open the line for questions.
Operator:
Thank you. [Operator Instructions] And our first question is going to come from Joseph Spak from UBS. Please go ahead.
Joseph Spak:
Thanks. Good morning, everyone. I guess, just to start, appreciate the commentary on the long-term growth over market target. Back of the envelope, it would seem like the reduced growth would lower your longer-term margin goals by maybe 20 bps, 30 bps. Is that sort of reasonable? And can you sort of address any other factors that may impact the long-term margin goals?
Joe Massaro:
Yeah, Joe. It's Joe. I'll start, and then Kevin can jump in. Obviously, we'll see that come down a bit as high voltage slows. We try to lay -- in Slide 18 of the deck, we try to lay out the progress we've made in '23 and '24, which we feel is quite strong. I think if we had to look out -- and this goes back to that Investor Day discussion around 2025 margins, I think if we looked at that today, we had about a 14% total margin for Aptiv in 2025. We'd say we've got about, call it, 100 basis point to 150 basis point headwind to that at the moment. Some of it coming off, obviously, from the lower growth over market, some of it's going to be the higher peso. We're seeing just the peso changes of last year, the strengthening has effectively gotten into the cost base at this point. And as I mentioned in my prepared comments, we're also seeing, particularly for 2025, some additional operating and labor costs in Mexico. So, at this point, I would say those margin targets are probably pushed out a year round numbers, and we'll obviously be working on that over the course of this year and sort of updating as appropriate. I don't know, Kevin, if I...
Kevin Clark:
No, listen, I think you captured. I think, to the point Joe made, we'd say the bigger headwind quite frankly is labor inflation, especially in places like Mexico, relative to growth rate from high voltage electrification. Just to remind everybody, although it looks like adoption has slowed, growth rate is still on a relative basis, extremely high. So, just want to remind everybody that we are believers on the ongoing trend of the penetration of electrification in the automotive space.
Joseph Spak:
Okay. Thank you for that. And then just on the buyback, I think it's a positive step for capital allocation. But you still have $1.6 billion of cash on hand. Your free cash flow guidance is like $1.2 billion. I think you've said minimum cash is $600 million to $700 million. So, the $750 million, I think is probably within the framework of what you expect to -- how you expect to sort of use cash generation. But how should we think about the total cash on hand especially? I understand you want to leave a little bit of firepower for maybe some acquisitions, but still seems like there's a good amount of cash on the balance sheet that could be put to work.
Kevin Clark:
Yeah, maybe I'll start. Listen, Joe, your observation is a good one. Listen, our primary focus is on continuing to invest in the business for profitable growth. We'll underscore that. We feel like we have a very strong competitive position. We feel like there are opportunities to further widen the competitive moat. So, those are opportunities that we will continue to evaluate. But to the extent those opportunities don't present themselves, we'll certainly look at returning incremental cash to shareholders. So, we'll strike that balance. But it's important that we have some level of flexibility to react when opportunities present themselves.
Joseph Spak:
Okay. Thank you.
Operator:
And our next question is going to come from Rod Lache with Wolfe Research. Please go ahead. I'm so sorry, this is going to be Chris McNally with Evercore.
Chris McNally:
Thanks so much, team. Two questions. The first, Joe, I appreciate the help on the cadence, first half, second half. So, if it sounds something like the outgrowth, 4% first half, maybe 10% in the second half. Could you help us walk through the Chinese mix? I think everyone understands North America and the strike. But when we say domestic Chinese, it sort of means multiple different things. And I guess what people are trying to figure out is why that may improve over the course of the year. Is it specific Aptiv things, or is it just a production schedule, the way it plays out for your customer base?
Joe Massaro:
Yeah, it's obviously driven off of production schedules from the customer base, which would include launches. So, we do see higher launch activity and schedules picking up from the multinationals towards the second half of the year. In addition to that, and I think from what we're seeing, and I think it's generally consistent at this point with what you see from IHS is some of the local OEM growth, the 30%-plus you saw in the back half of the year, in '23, they started to lap some of that. So, from a growth -- again, the sort of relative growth rate that drives the growth over market calculations, some of that starts to come back in a little bit, just given the significant growth in the back half of 2023. And obviously, we tend to concentrate and call it the top 10 or 12 Chinese OEMs from a local perspective. So, we have their schedules, but also, Chris, looking to some extent at what the forecasting services are saying about that production level as well.
Kevin Clark:
Yeah, maybe I'll add, Chris, a couple of items, just -- part of it is just the evolution of our business, if your question is specific to China, right? So, when you look at, as an example, 2023 bookings in China, roughly 60% of those were with local OEMs. Our focus is on players like Geely, like BYD, like Changan, like some of the leaders. We are careful with respect to overall exposure, and we want to make sure that we're with players that could grow in China and then highly focused on those that we feel are well positioned to export and are interested in exporting, just given the nature of what we're able to bring. When you look at 2023 revenues, we were roughly 40% domestic OEMs, just under 60% from a multinational standpoint. That moves to 50% in 2024 and continues to kind of increase up north of 60%, 70% over the coming years. So that mix, at least from a current list of winner standpoint, improves.
Chris McNally:
Yeah, that's perfect. That was my follow up. I mean, do you think sort of exiting '25 into '26, no, you don't have to get very specific with the timeline, that you start to become pretty agnostic, meaning that the targeted plan that you laid out, you should be pretty well adjusted, assuming the mix kind of normalizes as we get to '25, '26, but that domestic turnover happens around the '25 to '26, where we won't be talking about this mix issue as much?
Kevin Clark:
Yeah, I think we were in a unique situation in 2023 where we saw a significant swing. Joe made the point. I think he's absolutely right. We as a team think we're absolutely right, that you're going to see that more balanced on a go-forward basis in terms of year-over-year change. What we're trying to do is just make sure we're balanced across multiple customers, but ensuring they're the right customers. And there are, for example, some of the global JVs that are better positioned than others. And there are certainly some very strong local Chinese OEMs who are doing extremely well in the China market but have come to us with a real focus on how do we assist them, how do we enhance our capabilities to take product outside of China into principally Europe at this point in time.
Chris McNally:
That's great. And just as the last thing, because I know it'll come up. Joe, I think the 2025 was 14% to 14.5% margin, 100 bps to 150 bps off that. Can we just kind of take that as the new '25 as roughly 13% and then, like you said, push the year out to '26? I just know that will come up the rest of the call.
Joe Massaro:
Yeah, I think round numbers, that's pretty good, Chris. If you wanted, I'd probably be closer somewhere between 12.5% and 13%.
Chris McNally:
Perfect. Thanks so much.
Operator:
And our next question is going to come from Rod Lache from Wolfe Research.
Rod Lache:
Good morning, everybody. Just, first of all, to clarify some of the discussion off of Chris' question. Obviously, we've seen some ongoing share shift away from the western OEMs over the past couple of years, and it sounds like the reason why you don't expect that to reoccur in 2024 is because of the big uptick in backlog that you have from BYD, Changan and some of the other Chinese OEMs. Is that essentially it?
Joe Massaro:
I think there's a couple -- I'm not sure I understand that, Rod. I think there's a couple of things. I think overall you had some 30%-plus growth quarters by those local Chinese OEMs, right? We do think that. And again, from what we're seeing in a scheduled perspective, and when we look at that, there's a couple of forecasting services that sort of look at that market, that starts to level off a bit, right? They catch up to some of their high comps. At the same time, launch activity with the multinationals who admittedly have had, I think, some platform challenges over the last couple of years in China, do have new launches coming up, and those launches were on those platforms, and we expect to see that sort of take their overall production up, our content up, which is how we're sort of looking at it, starting to balance out. And then you obviously have the mixed shift inherited within our business that Kevin took you through.
Rod Lache:
Okay.
Kevin Clark:
So, Rod, at a high level, we expect share to continue to shift to the local OEMs. I think what Joe and I were talking about is the magnitude of the shift over a relatively short period of time. We expect that not to be the same in 2024 as it was in 2023.
Rod Lache:
Right. Okay. Understood. On high voltage, it looks like you're implicitly assuming a similar level of EV growth in 2024 versus what you saw in 2023. As you've observed, there's been some slowing late in the year in 2023. Maybe you can elaborate on the models or factors that you consider that lead you to conclude that the growth is pretty similar for EVs. And can you maybe also give us any color on the assumptions that you make behind those high voltage bookings? Do you have a penetration assumption? Or is there some color you can provide that helps you underwrite that level of revenue associated with the bookings?
Joe Massaro:
Yeah. So, obviously, much like the rest -- the other parts of our business, we're looking at customer schedules, which include customer launches. And you're right, we're right around that 20% growth rate for '24, which was consistent with '23. There are some new program launches. Again, that business is 80% China, Europe, right? So, clearly seeing some weakening in North America. We've seen schedules come down. I think that's well understood at this point. But the combination of sort of some new product launches and where we see customer schedules and then really that sort of the concentration we have in that business around China and Europe. I think penetration rates, we've always been lower on a relative basis at this point, where we have not looked out to sort of 2030, to update what we talked about in February, possibly that's lower than 30%. I think we were sort of well behind everyone else. But I think over the next few years, you're moving in within that sort of, call it, that 10% to 15% range, is what our numbers would extrapolate out to.
Rod Lache:
Okay. All right, thank you.
Operator:
And our next question is going to come from Itay Michaeli. Please go ahead.
Itay Michaeli:
Great. Thank you. Good morning, everyone. Just a first question on the long-term growth over market. I know that the Investor Day last year, there was an expectation of some acceleration beyond 2025. Obviously, a lot changing here in the near term, but the bookings are still strong and growing. So just a question, do you still think there's scope for some GOM acceleration in the second half of the decade?
Kevin Clark:
Itay, it's Kevin. Listen, as it relates to, is there an opportunity for accelerated growth, if you look at the last three years, we've booked roughly the same amount of business as we booked the prior five years to the start of that three-year period. So, the growth opportunity -- revenue growth opportunity is significant. There are certain items, as we look at growth over market, and we use that as a proxy for strength of our competitive position. We're not on every OEM across the globe. And when you look at that calculation, although certainly indicative of strength of growth, it's not perfect. So, would we tell you, should there be a bias based on bookings of stronger growth, accelerating growth? Absolutely. In light of kind of the current environment and discussion about EV penetration rates as an example, can things shift a bit quarter to quarter or maybe a year to a year? It's possible. But as we look at where the environment is today, as we look at where investor expectations are, we think the 6% to 8% growth over market is the right sort of framework for folks to consider, for investors to consider.
Itay Michaeli:
That's very helpful. Thanks, Kevin. And just a quick follow up on the ADAS business. I was hoping you could share what you're expecting ADAS growth this year, and also maybe a bit more color on the wins with the Japanese OEMs, whether that provides further opportunities to penetrate with those OEMs.
Joe Massaro:
Yeah. Let me start with the growth rates, and then Kevin can comment on the nature of the win. So, continue to see strong growth in active safety. Would expect 2024 to be north of 20% again, as it was this year. I do think -- listen, one of the things we talked about, just to put it in perspective, there is a large active safety business in North America with a couple of the D3, that was obviously impacted this year by the strike, right? So, it's not immune to things like the strike, but the underlying fundamentals of that business, the take rates and the growth will keep it above 20% again next year.
Kevin Clark:
Yeah. As it relates to the wins with the Japanese OEMs, they were in and around radar. They're global wins. So, for the Japanese OEMs, in Japan, as well as in Europe, China and North America, it's to be transparent. The first time we've been able to penetrate in a meaningful way that customer base with our ADAS solutions. Part of that reflects where we are from an overall technology standpoint versus their traditional supply chain, which you are all familiar with. We're confident that that will present us with incremental opportunities on the ADAS side, on the user experience side, as well as on the vehicle architecture side. So, we're very excited about it.
Itay Michaeli:
Terrific. That's all very helpful. Thank you.
Operator:
And John Murphy from Bank of America, please go ahead.
John Murphy:
Good morning, guys. Maybe I might take a sort of different angle on sort of the growth change here. Kevin, you guys have obviously great technology and great product, and almost seem to be far more than one step ahead of the industry. I guess the question is, as we look at the R&D spend, $1.5 billion gross, I think you guys $1.2 billion net when you get your recoveries or sharing with your business partners, is there a question that you may be spending too much on R&D and getting too far out in front of the growth curve here, and maybe that might be an opportunity in the near term to skinny back on R&D and drive better margins and cash flow and then return to shareholders? I mean, once again, the product portfolio is great. It just seems like the industry has an inability to absorb all the good tech you bring to the table.
Kevin Clark:
Yeah. Listen, John, I think that's a good question. It's something that we watch very closely. Our advanced development spending as a percent of total engineering was higher in 2023 than it's been in the past. I'd say the bulk of that, quite frankly, has been working to productize our portfolio, which means significantly more reuse of existing technology on new platforms, which is what the industry needs. It's driving a significant amount of interest from OEMs in areas like electrification, like battery management systems, like ADAS, like software, which we think is going to translate into continued growth in bookings. We talked about the $35 billion is kind of our estimate as we sit here today for 2024. I would say that number could be higher. So, it's important that we continue to invest, and we continue to position ourselves for growth. I would say we've doubled down our focus though on how do we make engineering more efficient, how do we get more out of engineering, and again, how do we drive more reuse, which allows us to be more efficient and develop higher margin solutions and allows us to deliver them to our customers at much lower cost. And I'd say equal focus on cost-effective solution now as there is on innovation.
John Murphy:
Okay. Maybe...
Kevin Clark:
But appreciate the question.
John Murphy:
Yeah. And just one quick follow up on just the volume outlook. Flat, globally. I know there's variances between regions. What are you seeing in schedules right now? I know you're using some of your internal work and then external forecasts, but is that jiving with the early read on schedules or actually seeing schedules running above or below that in any meaningful way?
Joe Massaro:
Yeah, it generally jives, although to my comments, it's a build throughout the year. So, my comments around revenue growth and the calendarization very much tied out to what we're seeing in schedule. So, total is connected. I would say this year, unlike the last couple of years, we actually don't see much schedule disconnect between -- we don't see much disconnect between the schedules and the broader forecasting services. We did see some differences related to supply chain and stuff over the past couple of years, but they're pretty much in line. But it is back-end weighted. It's just not us that's back-end weighted. It is the customer production schedules at this point.
John Murphy:
Okay, great. Thank you very much, guys.
Operator:
And our next question is going to come from Mark Delaney from Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.
Mark Delaney:
Yes, good morning. Thanks very much for taking the question. Incremental EBIT margins implied in guidance for 2024, I think are in the mid-20% range, even adding back for the strike impact that you had in '23. Is the extra margin leverage this year relative to the historical roughly 20% due to capturing the remaining COVID disruption costs? And then maybe you can talk a little bit more around how much visibility you have into pricing and how firm that is for '24 at this stage. I know with OEMs dealing with a lot on their plates, there was a fear from investors they could push more on margins. So, the visibility you have into achieving that higher margin leverage for '24 would be helpful.
Joe Massaro:
Yeah, Mark, it's Joe. Similar to '23, we have those bigger step downs in COVID on a year-over-year basis, supply chain disruption costs. So that is helping keep that incremental flow at the EBIT line a little higher than normal. I think that sort of 18% to 22% range that we usually talk about is still good in normalized times, but it is a little higher, much like it was last year. And then, listen, I think from a pricing perspective, there has been a lot of activity as we've talked about over the past couple of years, as we've worked through direct material inflation and stuff. I think we're as settled as we normally are on it. There is obviously ongoing discussions with customers, but I think we're in a relatively good place and a consistent place with where we've historically been this time of year.
Mark Delaney:
That's helpful, Joe. And the second question was just around shifting EV plans. A number of OEMs have talked about trying to do more with hybrids and plug-in hybrids. Maybe you can remind us what your content opportunity is on a hybrid and plug-in hybrid compared to BEV or ICE vehicles. And how well positioned do you think Aptiv is to potentially capture some of that higher intermediate-term production around hybrids and plug-in hybrids? Thanks.
Kevin Clark:
Yeah, it's Kevin. So, better electric vehicles are about 3x the content opportunity as an internal combustion engine vehicle. Plug-in hybrids are 2x, roughly 2x the content internal combustion engine. When you look at our mix of high voltage bookings and roughly the same from a revenue standpoint, roughly 25% to 30% of that relates to plug-in hybrid vehicles. So, hopefully that gives you a bit of context. So, we feel like we're very well positioned whether OEMs are producing plug-in hybrids or battery electric vehicles.
Mark Delaney:
Thank you.
Operator:
Our next question is going to come from Dan Levy with Barclays. Please go ahead.
Dan Levy:
Hi, good morning. Thanks for taking the question. Wanted to just go back to the EBIT bridge and just a point on the economics here. And specifically, I know in the past you had a lot of inflation from chips. We've obviously heard a number of accounts now that on the chip side there's excess inventory. I'm just wondering to what extent you're embedding chip deflation in the guidance? If not, is it at upside? And then maybe you could just comment briefly on the FX piece, because we're under this understanding that your hedge is unwinding and that a reset would drive some peso headwind. So maybe just to comment on the FX than the bridge as well.
Joe Massaro:
Yeah, I'd start with -- I mean, there is -- again we say -- as Kevin mentioned, I've attended most of them, supplier meetings in CES. There was no automotive chip provider at the moment that's talking about price downs. We still have a couple that are talking about increased prices based on wafer cost increases that they're seeing. We'll obviously push back hard on those and deal with them if and when they come in. But we're not seeing anything from a price down perspective, nor would expect it. So, at this point, there's nothing in there from an opportunities perspective in the guide. Listen, as it relates to peso, last year, we were obviously hit well above $100 million by transaction and translation impacts, right, the FX moving significantly. This year, and I mentioned this in my prepared comments, Dan, we've assumed a stronger peso, basically in the underlying forecast, right, which makes our peso denominated cost more expensive. So, if you look at that bridge, it's not showing up on the FX line because it's now forecasted at that level. But you do have about $100 million round numbers going into primarily labor, going into the cost structure, which would appear in that other bucket. And it's really the amount that's rolling through into my 2025 comments.
Dan Levy:
Great. Thank you...
Joe Massaro:
Hey, peso -- sorry, go ahead.
Dan Levy:
Go ahead, please.
Joe Massaro:
I was just going to say peso assumption, just to remind folks, at Investor Day was 20.50, so you got about 10%-plus strengthening in the peso. Go ahead, Dan, sorry.
Dan Levy:
Great. Thank you. Just as a follow up, I want to go back to the bookings, and appreciate another strong year of bookings, another outlook. Maybe we could just -- and I think this touches on some of the prior questions, just reconcile the strong bookings with seemingly commentary from the OEMs on just reduced gross spend in a variety of areas. I mean, I think we hear about EVs most notably, but even just some of the challenges or push out in executing software-defined vehicle or active safety. We saw there was a large OEM that pushed out one of their advanced ADAS programs. So, maybe you could reconcile the strong bookings activity with some of the challenges that the automakers have faced just broadly on executing on megatrends.
Kevin Clark:
Yeah. Dan, I'll take it. Listen, it's an interesting question, right? The question we get two years ago was kind of reconcile strong bookings with OEMs, comments regarding insourcing, all their activities. And I think now you hear from OEMs, and we experience directly first-hand all the challenges associated with attempting to do things that either you don't have the history of doing or don't have the capabilities, which quite frankly has presented perfect opportunities for us. And it's the reason why we've invested in the areas that we've invested in. It's reason why we're building kind of full platform solutions that are open, that are scalable, that provide flexibility and importantly lower cost. We fully recognize that, that we need to deliver lower cost options and solutions to our customers all the way from software and hardware development to delivery of a solution, and that's what we're focused on. And I would say that's the reason for the trend in bookings, that you've seen, a value proposition that economically makes sense for our customers as well as it does for Aptiv. And then, you augment that with the question about SoC material inflation, just to underscore Joe's point, we've not heard that from any of our western SoC suppliers. In fact, some are talking about additional constraints beginning in late 2025, going into 2026. So, we have deployed engineering assets in doing a couple of things. One, dual validating or qualifying additional alternatives, so there's more flexibility to move from one chip to another and bringing that to our OEM customers as a part of our overall value proposition. In my comments, I talked about the 12 Chinese SoC suppliers who we're working closely with in making significant traction in the China market, with, we believe, meaningful opportunities outside of China, especially in Europe, providing lower cost at roughly equal performance. And that goes from SoC technologies to radar technologies to peripherals. And by virtue of providing, again, like I said, those leading technologies in a more cost-effective way that again provide flexibility and choice to our customers, that holistic package is attractive, and it helps solve the challenges that you're aware of that they're dealing with.
Dan Levy:
Great. Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question is going to come from Tom Narayan from RBC. Please go ahead.
Tom Narayan:
Hey, thanks for taking my question. Maybe one on Motional. I understand that the industry is kind of capitulating on Level 4, but we'd just love to hear kind of your thoughts on this seemingly very promising enterprise, very long term, I understand, but what specifically kind of has changed your thoughts? Is it just the fact that the industry is moving -- the market is moving away from it, and maybe financing using capital markets is difficult, or is there something more fundamental that you're not liking about this Level 4 business?
Kevin Clark:
Yeah, it's Kevin. Listen, we should start with, Motional is on track to deliver the tech roadmap that's been laid out, and should underscore that HMG has been an absolutely outstanding partner. Better than -- as optimistic as we were at the start, even better as a partner from both operational and a strategic standpoint. Commercialization of the technology, i.e., the cost related to delivering the tech principally in and around hardware, really makes it challenging from an adoption standpoint, in the mobility on demand market. And as a result, kind of pushes out ultimately the revenue stream and the earnings stream for the business, and pushes out to a point where relative to other options or opportunities that we have to invest in that will deliver profitable growth, we had to make decisions. And again, a tough decision, but given where we sit today, given the benefit that we've gotten to date, which is real, which is in and around advanced ADAS solutions, and we'll work to continue to work with Motional commercially in and around bringing their technology into our ADAS platform, but when we look at ongoing funding of the technology and when it actually gets adopted in the mobility on demand market, it's just pushed too far out to make financial sense for us, given the other opportunities that we have in front of us.
Tom Narayan:
Got it. And just a quick follow up maybe on some of the other opportunities could include M&A. I know, I think there was a question earlier on capital return. And we've heard this theme with, I think, Tier 1 and Tier 2 suppliers, potentially there could be some M&A in 2024. One obstacle is obviously interest rates. Just curious if you were to pursue this and you've had some really successful M&A in the past, where would they be? And what are some of the kind of -- are there opportunities you find attractive currently?
Joe Massaro:
Yeah. I mean, like we've always said, the pipeline is very full. We maintain it on a regular basis. Certainly, don't see anything from a capital markets perspective that would preclude us from doing transactions. I think the balance sheet is in very good shape. We took a lot of care over the last couple of years to push out the tenor of the debt and such. So, I feel like we're in good shape from that. So, we're certainly not one of the ones that's raised any concerns on that side. I think you'd continue to see us do things like we've done in the past, right? You'd have both for AS&UX and SPS, there are bolt-on opportunities, things that enhance technology, regional presence in AS&UX, there certainly are some opportunities. It would obviously be smaller than Wind River, but continue to invest in our software capabilities. And then there's the adjacent markets, right? We've done a very nice job over the last couple of years -- excuse me, of growing our adjacent market presence, both organically and inorganically. And it's been accretive to growth rates, it's been accretive to margins, and I continue to expect us to do something like that.
Tom Narayan:
Got it. Thanks.
Operator:
Okay. And our next question is going to come from Emmanuel Rosner. Please go ahead.
Emmanuel Rosner:
Thank you very much. So, I appreciate the update on the new growth over market framework. I was hoping, since it's essentially a refresh of a framework, if you could take a step back and maybe remind us the various components or drivers of the expected growth over market, not necessarily just 2024, just as part of the framework, either in terms of how much growth over market comes from each component or in terms of revenue growth, whatever is easier? And is high voltage the only thing that is essentially lower down versus the previous framework?
Joe Massaro:
Yeah. The walk -- we won't go into more components than we've laid out, Emmanuel. I think the walk sort of indicates within the range, certainly, the largest piece not to come back is the high voltage, right? You could have -- again, and it's a long-term forecasting range, you could have a little bit of movement in customer mix and just how things play out relative to Kevin's comments on the Japanese OEMs and the China mix. I think speaking to Kevin's comments, our growth rate, other than EV, which we talked about coming down to 20% from the 30%, our growth rate has been what we've expected, right? I mean, we've hit our revenue numbers, we've hit our growth rates. Our product lines are growing. There is a denominator element here to what we're seeing take place in the market, particularly in 2023, with the Japanese OEMs up plus 25% round numbers production in North America. So clearly, I've talked about HV slowing down. I think we've been transparent about that. But I just want to be clear, this isn't -- we're missing our growth numbers or we're missing our revenue numbers. This growth over market, a big piece of that is coming from what I'll call the denominator impact. I don't know, Kevin, if you have anything to add.
Kevin Clark:
No, you've covered it.
Emmanuel Rosner:
Okay. And then, one additional clarification on Motional, please. Can you just explain a little bit the mechanics of what you will essentially try to achieve? So, skipping no further funding rounds, is your JV partner okay to fund it? Because I believe there is a need for funding in the fairly near term. So, will that be covered by them at least in the interim? And then, will you be looking at other options on a go-forward basis? You spoke about uncertainty around the timing, but I'm not sure how much of it is already decided. And it's a timing question versus things that still need to be negotiated.
Joe Massaro:
Yeah. No, as I said, we have to work through. Obviously, we have a JV construct. I won't comment for others involved in the joint venture. Aptiv's intention is to no longer participate in funding. And within the constructs of the joint venture agreement, we are looking at opportunities to reduce our holdings of the common stock, and that work is in process now. Just given the nature of transactions like this and the fact that we're working within a joint venture agreement, we felt it was prudent to put the full Motional impact into the guide versus trying to take an educated guess at when something may complete. But obviously working through that now, but the funding decision has been made.
Emmanuel Rosner:
Understood. Thank you.
Operator:
And this will be our last question, and it is going to come from Adam Jonas from Morgan Stanley.
Adam Jonas:
Hi, thanks for taking the questions. It's been a good call. How much of your CapEx and R&D is being spent to support full BEV architectures?
Kevin Clark:
In terms of total advanced engineering, which is the closest development, which you know, Adam, which is roughly 25% of our total engineering spend, we would say somewhere between 5% and 10% would be BEV related, electrification related, I should say.
Adam Jonas:
All right. Thanks, Kevin. And just again, I know the negotiations are ongoing, but anything to call out in terms of a breakup or walkaway fee, or I'd say at a high level, could investors anticipate the potential among your range of scenarios to have a potential payment to wind up your involvement with Motional?
Joe Massaro:
No, there's no such requirements in the joint venture agreement, and we wouldn't expect to sign up for anything like that.
Adam Jonas:
Okay. Thanks, everybody.
Joe Massaro:
Great. Thanks, Adam. Is that the final question?
Operator:
And [that concludes] (ph) today's questions and answers, and I'll turn it back over to Kevin Clark. Please go ahead.
Kevin Clark:
Great. Thank you, operator. Thank you, everybody, for your time today. Have a nice rest of the day. Take care.
Operator:
And this concludes today's call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Please standby. Good day, and welcome to the Aptiv Q3 2023 Earnings Call. Today's conference is being recorded. At this time, I'd like to turn the conference over to Jane Wu, Vice President of Investor Relations and Corporate Development. Please go ahead.
Jane Wu:
Thank you, Marjorie. Good morning, and thank you for joining Aptiv's third quarter 2023 earnings conference call. The press release and related tables, along with the slide presentation, can be found on the Investor Relations portion of our website at aptiv.com. Today's review of our financials exclude amortization, restructuring, and other special items and will address the continuing operations of Aptiv. The reconciliations between GAAP and non-GAAP measures for our third quarter financials, as well as our full-year 2023 outlook are included at the back of the slide presentation and the earnings press release. During today's call, we will be providing certain forward-looking information that reflects Aptiv's current view of future financial performance and may be materially different for reasons that we cite in our Form 10-K and other SEC filings. Joining us today will be Kevin Clark, Aptiv's Chairman and CEO; and Joe Massaro, CFO and Senior Vice President of Business Operations. Kevin will provide a strategic update on the business, and Joe will cover the financial results in more detail before we open the call to Q&A. With that, I'd like to turn the call over to Kevin Clark.
Kevin Clark:
Thanks, Jane, and thanks, everyone, for joining us this morning. Let’s begin on Slide 3. We delivered another strong quarter exceeding our expectations despite some headwinds. Touching on a few of the highlights, new business bookings totaled $6.6 billion, bringing the year-to-date total to a record $27 billion. Revenues increased 7% to $5.1 billion, 2 points over the growth in vehicle production, reflecting double-digit growth in ASUX revenues and S&PS revenue growth in line with global vehicle production, the impact of the UAW strike in North America, as well as customer mix. EBITDA and operating income were both records totaling $727 million and $560 million respectively, reflecting solid flow-through on volume growth and ongoing operating performance initiatives, partially offset by unfavorable FX, timing related to customer recoveries, and the impact of the UAW strike. We expect continued sequential margin expansion as the headwinds related to supply chain disruptions continue to dissipate, customer recoveries are closed and the benefits from further cost structure actions take hold. The team remains laser-focused on continuing this trend in the fourth quarter and into 2024 and beyond. Turning to Slide 4, touching on the key themes and macro trends that have had an impact on our operations this year. Our customer relationships and new business bookings are stronger than ever, driven by robust demand for smart vehicle compute and software, high voltage electrification and ADAS solutions. As automotive OEMs continue on the path toward fully electrified, software defined vehicles, we are their partner of choice, delivering unique full system solutions that provide enhanced features and greater flexibility all at a lower cost. We're also benefiting from the transition to the software defined future across several other industries with opportunities in the commercial vehicle, telecom, AMD and industrial markets. Global automotive vehicle production has been stronger than we initially forecasted, as easing supply chain constraints have led to fewer disruptions enabling increased production. Our strong year-to-date results had put us well on our way to reach the top end of the full-year guidance we laid out in early August. However, the UAW strike, which affected the production schedules of our top three North American OEM customers, has had an impact on both our third and fourth quarter results. While tentative agreements have been reached with all three North American OEMs, there remains some uncertainty on vehicle build schedules as the OEMs work to finalize their plans to ramp up production during the balance of the fourth quarter. Our operating teams in North America are working closely with our customers and supply chain partners to help accelerate the ramp up of production and minimize any potential disruptions. Moving to Slide 5. As already mentioned, new business bookings during the quarter were $6.6 billion, bringing our year-to-date total to a record $27 billion on track for our target of $32 billion for the full-year. Advanced Safety and User Experience bookings totaled $2.2 billion, driven by over $1 billion in active safety awards. Signal and Power Solutions bookings reached $4.4 billion, including $1.1 billion in bookings for our high voltage electrification solutions split across geographies, bringing the year-to-date total to $4.3 billion, already surpassing last year's record of $4.2 billion. As OEM strategies around their vehicle architecture platforms evolve, one constant will be the need for solutions that deliver improved performance at a lower cost. And Aptiv is perfectly positioned to leverage our full system capabilities to enable a fully electrified, software defined vehicle. Turning to Slide 6, to review our Advanced Safety and User Experience segments third quarter highlights. Revenues increased 13%, 8 points above vehicle production, the result of a 30% increase in active safety revenues, reflecting strength across all regions as the launch of our Level 2 and Level 2+ ADAS solutions continue to ramp. Operating income totaled $109 million, reflecting a 7.6% operating margin, an increase over the prior period, but sequentially lower than the second quarter due to the seasonality of Wind River revenues and the timing of customer recoveries. New business bookings totaled $2.2 billion and included $1.2 billion of active safety customer awards, including a major award with a large German truck manufacturer underscoring the strength of our high performance radar technologies and their applications outside of the automotive industry. As demand continues to increase for more advanced active safety solutions, our unique insights and proven domain expertise position Aptiv to deliver differentiated value to our customers. To that end, we're excited to have recently launched our automated parking solution, an additional feature to our AI/ML-enhanced Gen 6 ADAS platform to address complex parking scenarios. Aptiv's unique solution enables fully modularized automated parking features that scale from Level 2 to Level 4, from auto parking assist and memory parking all the way to auto park delay. Automated parking is just one of the many features that we have under development in our Gen 6 ADAS technology roadmap, which will scale to a full Level 3 ADAS platform in 2026. Turning to the Signal and Power Solutions segment on Slide 7. Third quarter revenues increased 5% in line with global vehicle production. High voltage revenues increased 13%, reflecting strong growth across all product lines, partially offset by customer mix in Europe and Asia and the impact of the UAW strike in North America. The $4.4 billion in S&PS bookings that I mentioned previously included a low voltage architecture award with a Chinese OEM demonstrating the progress we're making further penetrating the local Chinese OEMs. Another strong quarter for Intercable Automotive with $400 million in new business awards, including a major award with a global customer in North America reflecting continued strong commercial traction and a high voltage system award with a European OEM that includes products across our electrical distribution, connection systems and Intercable Automotive portfolios, demonstrating how our full system approach sets us apart from the competition. Lastly, we're proud to announce that Aptiv has once again been recognized as an automotive PACE Award finalist. A Rapid Power Reserve solution is a groundbreaking technology that provides a highly reliable, redundant power source for a variety of critical functions, eliminating the need for a low voltage battery in the vehicle, significantly reducing weight, mass and costs. This recognition validates Aptiv's industry-leading technology as well as the value and impact our continuous innovation provides our customers. Turning to Slide 8. We're excited to showcase many of our new innovations at the Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas in early January next year. We'll bring our vision of the future to reality including vehicles with Aptiv smart vehicle architecture, running applications for next-generation ADAS and in-cabin user experience. Vehicles with our complete portfolio of optimized electrical vehicle solutions purpose built for demanding power requirements and Wind River's edge-to-cloud platforms supporting the latest safe, green and connected applications from Aptiv. We'll be providing live demonstrations of how we're leveraging our deep insights into the brain and nervous system of the vehicle, along with Wind River's proven software technology to develop optimized and scalable solutions that meet OEM needs for performance, flexibility and lower costs. Moving to Slide 9. In recognition of our strong commitment to innovation, operational excellence and sustainability, Aptiv was recently named by Newsweek as one of America's Greenest Companies. At Aptiv, our business strategy is directly aligned with our sustainability goals. We provide solutions of the highest quality, designed, developed and manufactured responsibly that enable a safer, greener and more connected world. In doing so, we take care of our people and our communities while minimizing our carbon footprint. Sustainability is an enterprise-wide commitment, and I'm proud of our entire team for helping us to achieve our goals and ensuring that our company, our customers and our planet continue to thrive. Moving to Slide 10. Before I turn the call over to Joe to walk through the financials, I wanted to touch on our current view of 2024. Building on the solid foundation we've established in 2023, we're well-positioned for continued strong revenue growth and margin expansion despite the macro headwinds. Our safe, green and connected product portfolio is perfectly aligned to the demand for feature-rich electric vehicles, as well as the acceleration of the software defined future in adjacent markets. Our advanced technologies and capabilities will continue to drive strong performance across multiple industries. While some macro uncertainties remain, we're confident in our ability to execute flawlessly in a dynamic environment. With that, I'll now turn the call over to Joe to go through the numbers in more detail.
Joe Massaro:
Thanks Kevin, and good morning, everyone. Starting on Slide 11, as Kevin highlighted, Aptiv reported another quarter of strong financial results exceeding our expectations, despite the impact of the UAW strike in North America. Revenue was up 7% to $5.1 billion, or 2% above underlying vehicle production, excluding the impact of acquisitions. As I will discuss shortly, our growth over market was negatively impacted by the UAW strike in North America, as well as customer mix and program timing in Europe and China. Active safety and high voltage electrification reported strong double-digit growth of 30% and 13%, respectively, and the UAW strike had a negative impact on revenue in the quarter of approximately $80 million. Adjusted EBITDA and operating income were $727 million and $560 million, respectively, reflecting strong flow-through on increased volumes, continued progress on our ongoing performance initiatives, including reductions in supply chain disruption costs that more than offset higher labor costs. The UAW strike had a negative impact to approximately $30 million, and foreign exchange was a headwind versus last year. Earnings per share in the quarter were a $1.30, an increase of $0.02 from the prior year, primarily driven by the higher operating income, partially offset by higher interest expense. Operating cash was $746 million, a significant increase over prior year, primarily driven by higher earnings and improved working capital levels. Capital expenditures were flat to prior year at $212 million. Looking at revenue in more detail on Slide 12. Revenue in the third quarter was $5.1 billion, reflecting sales growth of $299 million, representing adjusted growth of 7%. The Wind River and Intercable acquisitions added $153 million of revenue and net price and commodities as well as foreign exchange were slightly positive in the quarter. From a regional perspective, North America revenues was up 10%, reflecting 2 points of growth over market as the UAW strike negatively impacted D3 customer volumes relative to overall North American vehicle production in the quarter. In Europe, revenue grew 10%, or 4 points above underlying vehicle production, driven by strong growth in active safety, partially offset by program timing and slowing growth for certain BEV platforms. In China, revenue was in line with underlying vehicle production due to our customer mix and slowing BEV growth. As noted earlier, despite the lower growth over market, our Q3 adjusted growth and revenue were in line with our expectations. The lower growth over market in North America is consistent with the strike impact we experienced in 2019, and as we have said in the past, growth over market will be lumpy given customer mix and program timing. Moving to the ASUX segment on the next slide. Revenue rose 13% in the quarter, or 8 points over vehicle production. The outperformance was driven by strength in active safety, where revenue was up 30%. User Experience was down 5% in the quarter, reflecting the timing of certain customer programs and a more difficult year-over-year comparison. Price downs in the quarter were less than 1%. Segment adjusted operating income was $109 million, up 35% when compared to the same period last year. Year-over-year ASUX margins in the quarter were negatively impacted by the timing of certain material inflation recoveries from customers, which partially offset the flow-through on incremental volumes and improved performance. Also, ASUX margins were lower on a sequential basis versus Q2 2023 due to expected seasonality in Wind River's Q3 results. We had noted this seasonality at the start of the year. The Q3 impact of the UAW strike on ASUX was relatively minimal, reflecting approximately $10 million of revenue and $5 million of operating income. Turning to Signal and Power on Slide 14. Performance in the quarter was strong, despite a challenging operating environment. Revenue in the quarter was $3.7 billion, an increase of 5% in line with vehicle production, despite a negative strike impact of approximately $70 million of revenue or 2 points of growth. High voltage electrification grew 13% in the quarter, reflecting a slowdown in growth rate from prior quarters. Despite the slowing of EV production, we continue to expect our high voltage business to have a strong double-digit growth in 2023. Price downs in the quarter were less than 1%. Segment adjusted operating income was $451 million in the quarter, up 2% from prior year, including a $25 million negative strike impact. Operating performance including lower supply chain disruption costs were positive in the quarter and offset the negative impact of higher labor costs. Customer recoveries offset material inflation and the negative commodity impact in the quarter, while foreign exchange, primarily the peso and RMB continued to present a headwind on a year-over-year basis. However, the FX impact is in line with the updated guidance we provided in August. Adjusting for the impact of FX and the strike adjusted EBIT margins for Signal and Power Solutions were 13.3% in the quarter. Moving to cash generation and the strength of Aptiv's balance sheet on Slide 15. As we have discussed in the past, our focus on cash flow generation and cash conversion is as disciplined as our operational improvement efforts. The past quarter was a clear example of that, as we saw the results of our efforts to reduce the higher working capital levels we maintained during the recent supply chain disruptions. Despite the operating challenges in North America, we were able to improve operating cash flow by over $300 million versus prior year, resulting in cash flow conversion of 200% in the quarter and an ending cash balance of $1.8 billion. Given this strong performance, in October, we opportunistically paid down our $300 million term loan Aptiv's most expensive borrowing, increasing our average tenor from 15 to 16 years. As we have discussed in the past, our sustainable business model is enabling us to convert more income to cash and we believe there is no shortage of attractive deployment opportunities as we continue to maintain a well-balanced approach to capital allocation, including prioritizing organic investment in the business to support our portfolio of advanced technologies and record new business awards, executing our M&A strategy by focusing on transactions that enhance our scalability, accelerate our speed to market with relevant technologies and access new markets, maintaining our current financial policy as it relates to our leverage profile and opportunistically returning cash to shareholders. I will wrap up with our full-year outlook on Slide 16. Given our continued strong performance and a higher outlook for global vehicle production, we are maintaining our full-year outlook for 2023 despite the impact of the North American strike. Key assumptions now underpinning our outlook include global vehicle production up 6% plus for the year versus a prior estimate of 4%, driven by higher expected production levels in Europe and China. No significant strike impact beyond October 2023. During the month of October, we experienced a negative strike impact of $100 million in revenue and $50 million in operating income. Our outlook assumes a restart of customer production and a return to pre-strike production levels over the coming couple of weeks and no further meaningful disruptions. Accordingly, we expect revenue in the range of $19.95 billion to $20.25 billion, including the impact of total lost strike revenue of $180 million. I would note that while our revenue and adjusted growth rate remain unchanged, given the Q4 strike impact, we are forecasting our growth over market for 2023 to be below our long-term forecast range of 8% to 10%. EBITDA and operating income are still expected to be approximately $2.8 billion and $2.1 billion at the mid-points, respectively, including total lost strike earnings of $80 million. No change to adjusted earnings per share of $4.75 at the mid-point, and operating cash flow of approximately $2 billion. As Kevin will discuss further in his closing remarks, despite the macro challenges of the North American strike and the significant foreign exchange headwinds, our relentless focus on improving operating performance and cash flow generation has allowed us to continue to deliver in a difficult operating environment. With that, I'll hand the call back to Kevin for his closing remarks.
Kevin Clark:
Thanks, Joe. I'll wrap up on Slide 17 before we open the line for questions. As Joe and I have discussed, we experienced strong underlying business performance in the third quarter, driven by further easing of supply chain constraints, which partially offset layering headwinds related to material and labor inflation, unfavorable FX rates, and the UAW strike in North America. We continue to see tremendous momentum in new business awards and are well on our way to reaching our bookings target of roughly $32 billion by year-end. While our teams continue to work tirelessly to mitigate the impact of the UAW strike in North America, including the ramp up of North American production, we're executing on further cost structure actions to enhance our operational resiliency. Our portfolio of advanced technologies and strong operating execution gives us confidence in our ability to further strengthen our competitive position and deliver sustainable value creation for our shareholders. Operator, let's now open the line for questions.
Operator:
Thank you, Mr. Clark. [Operator Instructions]. While we build that queue, we'll take our first question from Joe Spak from UBS. Please go ahead.
Joe Spak:
Thanks, everyone. Good morning.
Kevin Clark:
Hi, Joe.
Joe Spak:
Kevin, Joe, just first on the growth over market for the quarter and I guess the outlook, I know you said it was in part driven by the UAW strike. I think it went from 9% to 5%. But that’s -- that $180 million is like 1 point, I think year-over-year. And part of that's obviously just the industry, not just your sort of growth over market. So can you sort of detail some of the other factors that are driving some of the lower growth over market for the year and in the fourth quarter?
Joe Massaro:
Yes. Joe, that's a good question. So you're right. There is the sort of numerator effect of what we're doing. The bigger impact is the denominator, right? That's a calculation sort of that comes in after the fact relative to everything else that happened in the markets. So not only do we have the slowing of the D3, where we do have about 65% of our North American business, but you have folks like the Japanese manufacturers that we don't have a lot of content on in North America going up significantly. So you get the compounding effect of numerator coming down to the denominator going up. For instance, just the growth and the Japanese OEMs had a very strong Q3. That growth -- that impact was about 4.5, 5 points against our growth over market, Joe. One of the things we look at to double check this math is sort of how did we do against the D3 standalone, where we were up about 14% with the D3 relative to their production. So definitely feel like particularly in North America, it's more of a market mix at the moment. I did caution on full-year because we got to see how quickly that sort of unwinds. The other places to look at, if you looked at Europe and China I mentioned just high voltage is growing more slowly. That was probably worth about a point of growth to us on a growth over market basis. We're still -- it's still contributing to growth over market, but less than the prior quarters by about a point. And then some program mix, particularly in Europe, just infotainments down a bit in the quarter that's some program timing. We expect infotainment to finish the year mid-single-digit growth. So again, it was more of a quarterly impact. But you are right, the relative market component of that drives that growth over market calculation as well.
Joe Spak:
Okay. And then I guess just to follow-up as we think about some of your mid-term targets and you pointed out some of the slowing BEV penetration in U.S. and Europe, and I think this has been pretty well documented right now. Does that -- I know you've taken a more conservative view of BEV penetration maybe than some third parties over the mid to long-term. So is this -- how does sort of the more recent trends, I guess, compare versus what you laid out back in the February Analyst Day?
Kevin Clark:
Yes. Hey, Joe, it's Kevin. Listen, I think as Joe highlighted walk through the numbers, Q3 has a lot of unique circumstances in it as it relates to growth over market. And as we look at providing perspective on -- more precise perspective on our growth over market in the out years, we need to see how Q3 settles. Having said that, we still strongly believe we're very well-positioned as it relates to growth over market given where we operate. Electrification and ADAS solutions are two of our higher growth areas, which we believe will continue to be high growth. Understand the questions in and around high voltage electrification and future growth rates, certainly Q3 was down relative to Q2 and Q1 this year. I think we would say that is largely related or a significant portion of that impact is the strike issue and some of the other items that Joe talked about. And then, as you highlighted, just a reminder, as we developed our electrification strategy, we very much focused on a select group of customers and had a much more conservative view on the overall market of electrification and the piece of penetration. So long winded way of saying it's too early to answer your question more precisely, but certainly to say we feel very good about where we sit from a growth over market standpoint.
Joe Spak:
Thanks. I'll pass it on.
Operator:
Thank you very much. Next we'll go to Rod Lache with Wolfe Research. Please go ahead.
Rod Lache:
Good morning, everybody.
Kevin Clark:
Hey, Rod.
Rod Lache:
Just following-up on Joe's question, I know you've been a lot more conservative on high voltage and BEVs than just about everybody in the market, you had a 35% penetration by 2030. But can you just give us a little bit of maybe additional color on what your customer mix looks like within that backlog that was propelling the 30% annual growth? Just to get a sense of is it -- are you more exposed to the companies that are slowing down a bit, or are you sort of more dispersed among the -- amongst the faster growers?
Kevin Clark:
Yes. So I'll start Rod, and Joe can fill in any blanks. So when you look at where the majority of our exposure is, it's with the European and the Chinese OEMs, that's where the bulk of our battery electric vehicle exposure is. When we look at kind of nearer-term and where we have those exposures are by and large on platforms that are BEV platforms. So they're dedicated BEV platforms. When we look out into the fourth quarter and into early next year, we're seeing very stable schedules as it relates to production. There's one exception with a North American OEM who I think has been pretty public about their plan for electrification, so that'll have some impact nearer-term, but offsetting that are a number of OEMs who are in the midst of launching BEV programs that we're on.
Rod Lache:
So high level, Kevin, when you look at this in its totality, do you feel like there's a material change to that original 30% that you were looking at? Or is it -- I guess our question is not that specific, but how are you kind of viewing the expectation?
Kevin Clark:
Yes. Listen yes, no, it's great. Yes. We feel really good about it. I think there's an element of I don't think we ever guided 30% forever. So there's a law of large numbers, right, that we need to keep in mind. We'll do just under $2 billion of high voltage electrification revenues this year; I think $1.8 billion or $1.9 billion. So that business has grown significantly. Q3 obviously was impacted by some of the dynamics that Joe talked about. Without a doubt, we will see some impact in Q4 and early next year related to the OEM that I referenced who is reducing BEV schedules. On the flip side, we have a number of OEMs where we look at current production schedules, what they have in place for Q4 and early next year where those schedules remain strong. And then in addition to that, we have a number of programs that are coming online during 2024. And the bulk of that activity is in China and is in Europe, two areas where we don't view any easing on CO2 emission regulations, and customers really focused on how do they continue to launch new BEV platforms.
Rod Lache:
Great. Thanks for that. And just lastly, obviously a lot of controversy around autonomous right now with crews slowing down, just hoping you can give us any updated thoughts on your investment plans there with Motional, whether that's influencing your thinking on that business at all. And then if Joe could just update us, you originally had a like a $1.7 billion performance and lower supply disruption kind of element to your 2022 to 2025 of rich. How much of that are you seeing this year?
Kevin Clark:
Yes. So I'll start, so nothing new to report out. We're actively engaged with our partner Hyundai in terms of future funding. As it relates to Motional, as we said in the past, they're on track from a tech standpoint and commercial standpoint, but we're engaged in discussions at this point in time, certainly well aware of what we're reading about we're seeing in the market. Those are certainly things that we'll consider as we make our ultimate decision. Again, if we were to fund, we would fund half of their cash needs. We haven't determined our plan or finalized our plan at this point in time. We'll be in a position to report that out when we announce earnings in February of next year.
Joe Massaro:
Hey, Rod, it's Joe. Just to answer your question, I think we're tracking well. If you recall, we had that on that walk I think you're referring to in the Investor Day from the end of 2022 to 2025, we had $1.7 billion of performance that was going to work to offset $900 million of labor inflation. We talked about that being fairly ratable over the three years. That wasn't sort of a 2025 thing. We were going to make progress on that through the year. I'd say 2023 is tracking very much to that sort of ratable approach on both the cost side as well as the performance, the price recovery side, so things are tracking well. Obviously, as we sit here today, and it's sort of stated obviously within the comments I made, right, we do have some higher volumes helping offset the strike impact, but for the most part, those performance initiatives are coming through as planned, and we're seeing that particularly on the offset of the labor expense.
Operator:
Thank you. Next we'll go to John Murphy with Bank of America. Please go ahead.
John Murphy:
Hi, good morning, guys. I have another follow-up on this toggle on EVs, and the penetration rate maybe being a little bit slower than people had expected. Kevin, as you look -- Kevin and Joe, I mean, as you look at this, an optimist could say, hey listen, EVs are taking a little bit longer and we're going to run our programs as they exist right now, get better margins and returns in the interim, generate more cash and be able to fund the future more robustly, might be gross over the market a little bit, but our earnings and cash flow might be a bit better. Is that potentially true here? And as you're making these capital commitments to these programs, or do you have the ability to kind of toggle down reasonably quickly so it wouldn't dent your returns and you get that benefit of maybe a slower roll.
Kevin Clark:
Yes. It's a great question, John, and I'll start. Listen, we still are believers in electrification and just want to remind everybody in the second quarter of this year, our high voltage revenue growth on a year-over-year basis was 48%, and this quarter it was 13%. And on a go-forward basis, we think it more normalizes relative to where we were in the third quarter. Having said that, as we stated, we've been very focused on having a -- a EV strategy that focuses on principally Europe and Asia Pacific, China, principally OEMs that have built BEV platforms, those OEMs who are taking global platforms from one region to another region and focusing our investment in those areas, which in reality allows us to scale. I mean that was one of our objectives, John, is to make sure that to the extent we're putting in capital that it scales, that we get significant revenue. On the bulk of those programs, we have scaling price relative to volume. So to the extent, an OEM does not achieve their particular targets, we have the ability to adjust prices and that's contractual. So we've protected ourselves that way. And then to the point you made, our baseline outlook has never been that 50% of the vehicles manufactured in 2030 were going to be battery electric vehicles. We had a much lower outlook. So we think we have it ring-fenced and balanced. Listen; there may be a couple of quarters where I mentioned there's one OEM who is backing off their original schedules, where we'll see an impact on our growth rate. But as things normalize, we're still optimistic about our competitive position here and the growth opportunity and the margin opportunity it presents.
Joe Massaro:
Hey John, it's Joe. The only thing I'd add to, we've talked about this for a while, right? Particularly with the electrical architecture business, we were able to leverage existing facilities, existing equipment, existing supply chain, existing engineers, low voltage, high voltage, the products are different, but they're very complementary. So for us, and we've got obviously, a very large architecture business. So I think leveraging that over the last couple of years has helped that product line get to segment accretive margins very quickly. But it's also helped from a return perspective, right, because we had a lot of that capital and plant and equipment in the ground.
John Murphy:
Super helpful. Just one follow-up on the Wind River seasonality, because it did seem to we may have missed this in the quarter in our model and our estimates. Could you just Joe just run through this, how would you think about seasonality for Wind River? I know you talked about it earlier in the year, but just if you can remind us.
Joe Massaro:
Yes. We -- I mentioned it in passing in the guide, they are -- and it's in their business. I think it's somewhat of a software business phenomena, Q3 is just a very slow quarter for them. Q2, Q4 tend to be the highest. It's a highly leveraged model, like a software business would be, right? So software renewals, licenses, new licenses tend to drop at it's an 80% gross margin business, so they tend to drop at pretty high incremental rates. So we had seen this in the prior years. That's why we cautioned in February, and don't -- we're not surprised by this. So I think as you look at this and we talk about just the quarterly progression over the next couple of years, I think this will be something that we see as recurring.
John Murphy:
Okay. That's helpful. Thank you very much.
Kevin Clark:
Thanks.
Operator:
Thank you. We'll next go to Adam Jonas with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.
Adam Jonas:
Thanks, guys. So just look and follow-up to Joe's and Rod's and Murphy's question. I want to hit on this theme as well. This EV journey for legacy OEMs has just been an unmitigated disaster so far. I don't think you need to be pragmatic Bostonians to see that, to see through that. With respect to like the inability to generate anything close to a reasonable return on capital. And I don't see a path to it. So just speaking for myself here, guys, but it wouldn't surprise me, and I suppose a lot of people on this call, if GM, Ford, and the Germans pulled back their EV spending a lot, I mean, a lot. And I know you're not going to -- you're not in a position to answer the exact impact yet, so I'll phrase the question this way. If they did, if in a world where the undisputed leader Tesla is dialing back and barely profitable themselves. And others follow and really just reset because they can't sell negative 100% margins forever. Can you tell us how much your those -- the 14.5% mid-decade operating margin target or the over 17% longer-term target? And I realize there won't be a straight pass there, but how much of those targets really depend on the pace of EV adoption to continue the way you outlined, even conservatively outlined in February 14?
Kevin Clark:
Yes. I'll take it, I'll start, Adam. Listen, I -- we can take a look at a scenario like that, just kind of peeling it back. This year, we'll do $1.8 billion in high voltage, or EV revenues out of our roughly $21 billion in revenues. And clearly, the growth rate that we've attached to high voltage electrification is higher than our overall average growth rate. So certainly it would have some impact there. I think as we said, a lot of these EVs are replacing vehicles with internal combustion engines. Most of which -- most of those OEMs where we actually have the vehicle architecture content, so the trade-off isn't dollar for dollar. The high voltage content or margins related to the SP&S base margins is accretive by a couple points from a margin rate standpoint, but it's not a matter where it's 2x. So it's something that I think we would manage through. It would have an impact from a profit standpoint. I don't think it would have a huge impact just given what the margins look like. And we would be going again if these OEMs aren't achieving their targets; their prices are going up to the extent they're significantly reducing. There are one-time payments from the OEM as it relates to us reducing our capacity to produce the product. So that's how I think about it.
Joe Massaro:
Yes. Adam, I'd agree with that. Assuming unit production, total unit production stays in line, right? We'd be swapping back to content on the low voltage platforms. We've got content on one out of every 3.5 vehicles manufactured. And to Kevin's point, you're looking at a point or two of sort of accretive high voltage that we'd have to work through. But it's -- there are going to be dollars that replace that assuming the world continues to build the total number.
Kevin Clark:
Yes. And Adam aside, I kind of I understand your question, and it's a fair one, it's a good one. I do wrestle with the industrial policies and they can always change of Europe, principally maybe U.S. secondarily and that can change. China from an environmental standpoint, but from a national security standpoint, technology standpoint, the push for EVs and the impact on OEM profitability, there's a question I would ask or a scenario that I would throw out where that the OEMs are going to be going to the governments, wherever they are, for support, to continue the rollout so that they can achieve the industrial policies that those particular governments have, right? Because all of this is tied to CO2 emission targets or national security. And if OEMs are uncomfortable or if the investment required is beyond, which they can absorb and be profitable, ultimately, I think they're going to look for some support not too different from the semiconductor industry in the U.S. and Europe.
Adam Jonas:
Yes. Appreciate that, Kevin and Joe. Just one quick follow-up, if I may. Just want to confirm that out of the $1.8 billion or almost $2 billion of high voltage -- sorry, electric portion of the -- was the $2 billion -- sorry, of the $2 billion number that you quoted.
Kevin Clark:
$1.8 billion. So Adam, $1.8 billion, I use round numbers.
Adam Jonas:
Thank you. Just want to confirm that. Tesla is the single largest component of that. I want to confirm that and then labor remind us how much of your sales is labor and what rate of inflation you're seeing in real time. Thanks, guys.
Kevin Clark:
Yes. On the customer piece, listen, we can't talk about -- speak about specific customers, so that's a question we're not going to respond to. As it relates to labor, I think I would focus on labor within the overall business. Joe?
Joe Massaro:
Yes. We've talked about it. Adam, we had in the Investor Day, $900 million of dollar increase between evenly split over the three years, that was about 10% to 11% increase and that's what we're seeing.
Operator:
Thank you. Next we'll go to Chris McNally from Evercore. Please go ahead.
Chris McNally:
Thanks so much, team. Maybe we could just do a little housekeeping. Kevin and Joe, maybe I'm missing something, but the $1.8 billion in high voltage, what's the number you're using for 2022? Maybe I -- maybe it's been restated, but I think you had $1.2 billion in some of your old slides. Could you just update those 2022 and 2023?
Kevin Clark:
Yes, that's accurate -- yes, that's accurate $1.2 billion.
Chris McNally:
Okay. And so that's actually -- is that an increase? I mean because I think the previous number guided to on Q2 was maybe a 30% increase. So it looks more like a 50% increase for high voltage for this year.
Joe Massaro:
Chris, it depends on what you're doing with Intercable, right? We closed Intercable end of last year. So wasn't in last year call that just a little north of $200 million of revenue. So just thought if you pro forma for it, yes, it's growing, yes, and if you didn't, you got to look at that Intercable, yes.
Chris McNally:
That's exactly. Okay. Thank you, Joe. Intercable was exactly what I was asking for. And the second one, just to follow-up on Adam's, you forget about talking about the customer, but the $1.8 billion is only high voltage, right? So if there was a large EV player that you mostly did low voltage for, that low voltage revenue, even though it goes to an EV, would not be in the $1.8 billion, is that correct?
Joe Massaro:
Yes, that's right. We talked about that. We really wanted to focus on just the high voltage product line, and that's when we started providing that guidance a few years back. So that's just high voltage and the low voltage is what's going in either vehicle, right? So you don't really see a big vehicle difference.
Chris McNally:
Either vehicle.
Joe Massaro:
Yes.
Chris McNally:
Absolutely. And then, the last one for Q4, because obviously there's a lot of moving currents in Q3. On ASUX, I think you talked about 8% to 9% rough margins for the year. It sounds like from the commentary, some of the recoveries were pushed from Q3 to Q4. The first is that 8% to 9% still pretty good, even if it's the low end, because it points to a nice material pickup in the ASUX [sic] margins. And I think we've been sort of looking for that because that's a large portion of the drive towards the 2025 goal.
Kevin Clark:
Yes.
Joe Massaro:
Yes. Yes. Full-year, the current guide would have ASUX at 8% and S&PS at 11.6%.
Chris McNally:
Perfect. Three for three. Really appreciate it, team.
Kevin Clark:
Thanks.
Joe Massaro:
Thanks, Chris.
Operator:
Next we'll go to Itay Michaeli from Citi. Please go ahead.
Itay Michaeli:
Great. Thanks. Good morning, everyone. Just a couple of thoughts for me. First, going back to the Q4 margin outlook, I was hoping you could just kind of dimension the seasonality factors in there. It looks like you'll be exiting closer to 13% ex-strikes just kind of curious how to think about the baseline as we look to bridge into 2024. And then second question, just hoping to talk more about the ADAS wins you had in Q3, maybe content per vehicle, and also any updated discussions with customers for Gen 6.
Joe Massaro:
Yes. Itay, I think as you look at and we'll obviously stay away from 2024 at this point, but I think if you looked at I sort of give our standard cautions, right? I'd focus more on H2 versus Q4, because Q4 can be heavy with things like engineering recovery. So I think it's more H2 adjusted for strike. But listen, as I -- as you just go through the progression here, and as I mentioned to Rod, we're clearly have got the benefit of some volume increases offsetting strike. But our margin rates at the segments as well as total call -- total company are tracking to the original guide and that's tracking to that Investor Day model. And as I mentioned to Rod, the $1.7 billion of performance, the $900 million of labor are falling in. So if you go -- so I think we're on track. If you're going to start to look at back half, I would -- I think H2 is a better proxy than just Q4. And then you obviously have to adjust for the strike.
Kevin Clark:
On conversations with customers about Gen 6 ADAS platform, I would say we're an active dialogue with roughly a dozen Asian, European and North American so interaction there and strategic dialogue is very, very strong, going very well. As it relates to the Q3 bookings, the bulk of those bookings were in and around radar solutions that are being plugged into existing ADAS platforms with OEMs in Europe and in China.
Itay Michaeli:
Perfect. That's all very helpful. Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Next we'll go to Emmanuel Rosner. Please go ahead.
Emmanuel Rosner:
Thank you very much. I was hoping you can help us frame and quantify the exposure to electric vehicles either in terms of current revenue or more importantly, actually in terms of future growth of a market or percentage of backlog, not just within high voltage, but generally speaking, because to your earlier point, you're selling low voltage components to like very large EV manufacturer. And obviously a lot of the new programs over the next few years would probably have been on new EV platform. So anyway, to maybe quantify when you sort of like look at this outgrowth expected over the next few years, how much of that would have landed on EV platform.
Joe Massaro:
Yes. Emmanuel, its Joe. Listen, I think Kevin frames sort of how we're thinking about long-term, right? We were conservative. I think we didn't sort of follow everybody down the path is going to be 50% in the next couple of years. So from what we see now remain confident in that outlook. We do expect growth to slow. We just get to the law of larger numbers. You get almost a $2 billion business. You're going to see growth rates slow over time. As I mentioned earlier, if you look just over the past call it eight plus quarters, high voltage has typically provided 2 points of growth over market round numbers, a little bit higher in certain quarters up to 2.5, 3. But on average two, this quarter, it provided a point of growth over market, so meaningful, but not -- certainly not all of it. And then 80% of the business at this point, including revenue and bookings is with the European and the Chinese OEM. So we had not historically gone down the path of the North American products at least the initial products, I think were very niche, right? They were the high end SUVs, sort of more of the unique type vehicles. We have some content on them, but they were by no means the bulk of the business. So I think from -- I think that should help frame it at this point.
Emmanuel Rosner:
I appreciate it. Joe, the reason I'm asking for EV exposure outside of high voltage is, there's a large seating supplier that would be ideally the most powertrain agnostic product you could possibly sell slashing their backlog by 20%, because all these new seats were going to go on new EV platforms, basically, which are either being pushed out or it's sort of like lower volume.
Joe Massaro:
Yes. I can't speak to the seating business, obviously like I said; we're 80% European and Chinese concentration. I'm not sure who you're talking about or what their portfolio looks like.
Emmanuel Rosner:
No, no, no. my comment was EV exposure outside of high voltage, any way to frame that?
Joe Massaro:
No. I think we've provided what we're going to provide, Emmanuel.
Kevin Clark:
Yes. Emmanuel, from our perspective, vehicle architecture just given the fact that we're on one of every three vehicles globally, if they're not building a BEV, they're building a vehicle with an internal combustion engine. And more likely than not, we're on that vehicle. So with that low voltage vehicle architecture. So for us, I would say there's virtually no impact.
Emmanuel Rosner:
That's helpful. My follow-up is on I think you were mentioning your mix impact. That's sort of like a little bit of a headwind in the quarter outside of just the strike, obviously, in North America. Can you just elaborate a little bit more on the other region? Was it sort of like I mean customer mix specifically, and which region?
Kevin Clark:
Yes. It was customer mix across really all regions. And some examples were kind of outsized growth of the Japanese OEMs across North America, across Europe, as well as some significant growth in parts of Eastern Europe that are either products manufactured in Eastern Europe or in places like China that are exported. So areas where we have less customer exposure. So a lot of that, we think is related to semiconductor rebound and availability of chips for select OEMs. And the other piece is the impact of or the opportunity as it relates to the UAW strike in North America for select OEMs to potentially gain share.
Operator:
Thank you. And we'll go to our last question from Dan Levy from Barclays. Please go ahead.
Dan Levy:
Hi, good morning. Thanks for squeezing me in.
KevinClark:
Hi, Dan.
Dan Levy:
Wanted to start with your Slide 10 just the perspectives on 2024 here. And in the bottom half of the slide says continued inflationary environment, geopolitical uncertainty. Maybe you could just unpack the inflationary comment a bit. What is it that you're seeing that's incrementally worse? How does potential recovery on semiconductor costs factor in? And maybe you could just talk about the potential for better stability in production schedules to be a potential tailwind next year.
Kevin Clark:
Yes. So it's Kevin, listen, as it relates to stability and production schedules, we're seeing that now. I mean, there's some element of disruption in COVID that remains, but we've seen a significant improvement throughout the year. We'd expect availability to continue, obviously into 2024. So should see some benefit there. Material inflation was significant in 2023. We expect in some areas, including semiconductors that will remain significant in 2024. We're doing a number of things to address that. One, changing semiconductor partners, really across all the semi categories from core semis like SoCs, analog power PMICs to peripheral semis. So a lot of work being done by our engineering and sourcing teams, establishing commercial agreements or partnership with the Chinese semiconductor space, which is ramping up capabilities very, very aggressively. And we're deep into that and are going to take advantage of that opportunity both to serve the China market as well as to bring some of these into the nine China market. So that'll free up lower cost alternatives for ourselves and our customers. As it relates to customer recoveries, listen, those are always challenging discussions, but given where we have contracts, given where we are from a financial standpoint, we are passing 100% of those costs on to the customer. Again, it's not a simple discussion. It's not an easy discussion, but that's what the commercial team or how the operating team is operating. And that's something that will continue to the extent they're interested in some of these lower cost alternatives. There's an opportunity for us to jointly benefit and we'll put those in front of them. But as of now, that's kind of the state. So the material inflation is relatively high. And then we're very focused on labor inflation in places like Mexico, Eastern Europe, North Africa. So those are areas that we're watching very, very closely. And then last item, I should say, it's not related to the specific inflation on material or direct labor. We're very focused on continuing to prune our cost structure to provide additional room and ultimately additional margin.
Dan Levy:
Great. Thank you. And then, just as a follow-up on the EV side, just two quick ones there. Can you just confirm I know you said you're overweight to the European and Chinese? China, we've obviously seen a lot of uptake, especially from BYD. How should we think about the mix impact if we see outsized exposure from the Chinese? And then can you just confirm that on SVA that that is powertrain agnostic?
Kevin Clark:
Yes. SVA is powertrain agnostic. It makes more sense if an OEM is rethinking and moving to a BEV platform, that is the time to really it's an easier time to implement and make that architecture change. But it would be powertrain, overall powertrain agnostic. As it relates to mix of BEV customers, I think it's relatively awash margins might be a little bit higher on our China OEM partners, given we tend to do more system solutions there. So are able to kind of connect a broader portion of our overall portfolio, but it wouldn't be significantly different.
Joe Massaro:
Yes. Dan, just current revenues and it's got -- it's changed over the last few years, we're about 60:40 global versus local OEs. From a revenue perspective today, that would have been north of 75% global, back in the 2018/2019 timeframe. Bookings are running 50:50. So we'd expect that to increase in favor of the locals. And obviously, just given what's being made over there a lot of that EV.
Kevin Clark:
Yes. I think actually, you look at our revenue mix I think 2024; it's almost 50:50 from a local multinational.
Operator:
And I'd like to turn the call back to Mr. Clark for any final remarks.
Kevin Clark:
Thank you, Operator. Thank you, everyone. We appreciate you taking your time this morning. Please let us know if you have any further questions. Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, that does conclude today's conference. We appreciate your participation. Have a wonderful day.
Operator:
Good day, and welcome to the Aptiv Q2 2023 Earnings Call. Today's conference is being recorded. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Jane Wu, Vice President of Investor Relations and Corporate Development. Please go ahead.
Jane Wu:
Thank you, Elaine. Good morning, and thank you for joining Aptiv's Second Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. The press release and related tables, along with the slide presentation, can be found on the Investor Relations portion of our website at aptiv.com. Today's review of our financials exclude amortization, restructuring, and other special items and will address the continuing operations of Aptiv. The reconciliations between GAAP and non-GAAP measures for our second quarter financials, as well as our full year 2023 outlook are included at the back of the slide presentation and the earnings press release. During today's call, we will be providing certain forward-looking information that reflects Aptiv's current view of future financial performance and may be materially different for reasons that we cite in our Form 10-K and other SEC filings. Joining us today will be Kevin Clark, Aptiv's Chairman and CEO; and Joe Massaro, CFO and Senior Vice President of Business Operations. Kevin will provide a strategic update on the business, and Joe will cover the financial results in more detail before we open the call to Q&A. With that, I'd like to turn the call over to Kevin Clark.
Kevin Clark:
Thank you, Jane, and thanks, everyone, for joining us this morning. Beginning on Slide 3. We delivered a record quarter, demonstrating outperformance in an improving supply chain environment. Touching on a few of the highlights. Revenue increased 25% to $5.2 billion, a new record for quarterly revenue, representing 10 points of growth over underlying vehicle production, driven by strong demand across our portfolio as well as across all geographic regions. Revenues in our active safety and high-voltage electrification product line increased almost 50%, underscoring the strength of our safe, green, and connected product portfolio. EBITDA and operating income totaled a record $695 million and $530 million, respectively, reflecting solid flows on volume growth and fewer supply chain disruptions. Partially offset by unfavorable foreign exchange rates, commodity prices, and ongoing material and labor inflation. New business bookings totaled $6.1 billion, further validating our industry-leading portfolio, the strength of our customer relationships, and our ability to execute flawlessly in a dynamic environment. Turning to Slide 4. Our first half performance substantially in line with our expectations. New business bookings totaled over $20 billion, driven by customer awards for our SBA compute and software, high-voltage electrification, user experience, and active safety solutions. Record revenue, representing 20% growth, 8 points over underlying vehicle production, in line with our long-term framework, record EBITDA and operating income as well as significant year-over-year margin expansion. The result of strong volume growth and increased operating efficiencies, partially offset by the headwinds I mentioned on the prior slide. And we're ahead of plan for both Wind River and Intercable Automotive solutions with both companies experiencing an uptick in commercial engagements and customer awards. Although supply chain issues persist we experienced a sequential improvement in the supply of semiconductors resulting in more stable vehicle production schedules. From a macro and industry perspective, global vehicle production has been strong, with the North American and European markets being the most resilient. Given the current industry backdrop, we're updating our outlook for the full year. We now expect global vehicle production to increase 3% to 4%, principally driven by stronger vehicle production in North America and Europe. Our updated outlook does not take into account any labor disruption in North America, although we do recognize that this is a real risk. Joe will provide a more granular update on our revised outlook when we review the financials. Regardless of the market backdrop, we remain laser-focused on enhancing our portfolio of safe, green, and connected solutions, executing on our commercial strategy, and optimizing our business model, which will continue to position us to benefit from the secular tailwinds. Moving to Slide 5. As I already mentioned, new business bookings during the quarter were $6.1 billion, bringing our year-to-date total to over $20 billion. Advanced Safety and User Experience bookings totaled $1.7 billion, driven by $1 billion in user experience bookings, including awards for Aptiv's integrated cockpit controller and driver state sensing solutions. Signal and Power Solutions bookings reached $4.4 billion, including $1.4 billion in bookings for our high-voltage electrification solutions comprised of awards across our high-voltage product portfolio, with both traditional and new battery electric vehicle manufacturers. Given the strength of our commercial pipeline, we have clear line of sight to exceed last year's $4.2 billion in high-voltage business awards, and we remain highly confident in achieving our full-year earnings target of $32 billion. further validating the strength of our portfolio of advanced technologies and our ability to deliver exceptional value for our customers. Turning to Slide 6 to review our Advanced Safety and User Experience segment's second quarter highlights. ASUX achieved record revenue of $1.5 billion, increasing 24 points above underlying vehicle production. Active safety revenues increased 49%, with strength across North America, Europe, and China as the launch of our Level 2 and Level 2+ ADAS solutions continue to ramp. User Experience revenues increased 33%, driven by volume growth across key programs in both Europe and North America. And lastly, smart vehicle compute and software revenue grew 30%, reflecting Wind River's commercial success in both the automotive and nonautomotive markets, which I'll cover in more detail on the next slide. In terms of new business bookings, we were awarded over $400 million of active safety bookings, including program extension awards with a North American customer. As I mentioned, we're also awarded roughly $1 billion of user experience bookings, including a significant program extension with the VW Group. This particular award is for an integrated cockpit controller first launch on the Porsche Taycan and now being rolled out across numerous other vehicle platforms. As vehicle life cycles get shorter the ability to cost effectively extend our solutions across both luxury and mass market vehicle platforms, reinforces Aptiv's value as a strategic partner. And as demand increases for more advanced active safety and user experience solutions, the need for more advanced compute, software development and integration capabilities as required. Our ability to provide a full suite of flexible platform solutions that are cost-effective, while providing our customers with choice, differentiates us from our competitors. And as a result, we've experienced an increase in the number of strategic customer engagements and are confident that additional business awards will follow later this year. Moving to Slide 7. Wind River delivers edge-to-cloud software solutions for mission-critical applications, enabling software to find systems that require the highest levels of safety, security, and performance. The Wind River team has done a great job increasing the partner ecosystem while also winning new business, particularly in the aerospace and defense, telecom, and automotive markets, including a new program award for an A&D customer GMV to provide its edge software and with a global European truck manufacturer to provide its Linux edge software and services for their next-generation communication gateway, providing a nice entree into the commercial vehicle market. The Wind River team continues to be actively engaged with several automotive customers on enabling the software-defined vehicle of the future. In addition, they've announced several new partnerships to expand their ecosystem, including with Samsung to develop a fully integrated software and hardware solution for the automotive industry. This solution will be enabled by Wind River's Helix virtualization platform, which will allow end users to utilize a diverse set of runtime environments, including the VxWorks RTOS, Linux, and Android. Last month, the team also announced a strategic collaboration with Horizon Robotics to provide Wind River's complete edge-to-cloud portfolio for Verizon's automated driving compute solutions for the China market. These partnerships in automotive, along with Wind River's continued commercial success, in its traditional markets, allow Aptiv to capitalize on the transition to a more software-defined future. Together with Wind River, Aptiv is well positioned to provide cloud-native software solutions that help customers reduce complexity, while enabling flexibility, lower total system cost, faster speed to market, and new business models. In order to provide you with a deeper look at our software strategy, and the value that we can deliver to customers, we'll be hosting a software teaching in September. We're excited to tell you more about the Active Win River opportunity, and we'll provide more details as we get closer to the date. Turning to the Signal and Power Solutions segment on Slide 8. S&PS second quarter revenues increased 21%, 6 points over vehicle production, the result of strong revenue growth in China as we lapped the COVID disruptions during the second quarter last year, a 48% increase in high-voltage revenues, reflecting strong growth across all regions and product lines, and a 32% increase in commercial vehicle revenues. The $1.4 billion in high-voltage bookings that I mentioned previously included another strong quarter from Intercable Automotive, which I'll touch on in more detail on the next slide. Multiple awards with the Hyundai Motor Group, including for both power distribution and battery pack electrical architecture, High Voltage Electrical Center award, a global European truck manufacturer, further increasing our penetration of the commercial vehicle market as it begins to transition to battery electric vehicle platforms. Moving to Slide 9. As I mentioned earlier, we're on our way to exceeding last year's record of $4.2 billion of high-voltage bookings. We continue to enhance the breadth of our high-voltage product portfolio as we introduce new offerings in power electronics and battery management systems. And the addition of Intercable Automotive solutions expands our portfolio to include high-voltage bus bars, solid-state electrical centers, and battery cell interconnect solutions, further widening our competitive moat. We expect Intercable revenues to increase roughly 30% per year over the next several years, strengthening our position as the only full system provider of high-voltage solutions. With approximately $1 billion in bookings, year-to-date Intercable has already exceeded its 2022 full-year bookings amount. And their pipeline for 2023 new business award is now more than $2 billion, validation of the strength of their best-in-class high-voltage electrification technologies. Already a market leader with European customers, Intercable recently launched production from one of Aptiv's facilities in North America, with customer deliveries scheduled to begin this quarter. In addition to what Interconnect brings, we continue to experience significant commercial interest in our growing portfolio of power electronics and battery management system solutions for both battery producers and high-volume battery electric vehicle manufacturers. With our unique portfolio of high-voltage solutions and full system capabilities, we're perfectly positioned to be the partner of choice for customers around the world as they transition to an optimized electrified vehicle architecture. Moving to Slide 10. Before I turn the call over to Joe to walk through the financials, I wanted to take a minute to recognize an important achievement by the Aptiv team. In July, Aptiv was recognized by Volkswagen with the prestigious VW Group Award one of just a handful of suppliers. Aptiv was chosen for more than 40,000 suppliers for the top spot in the category of Global Performance Champion recognition for our product innovation and ability to keep Volkswagen connected during these challenging times. The VW and Aptiv strategies are fully aligned and our teams have been working closely over the last three years to design and develop the vehicle architecture that will enable the software-defined vehicle of the future. The Aptiv team is extremely proud of this award and looks forward to continuing to innovate and further strengthen our long-standing and strategic partnership with the VW Group. With that, I'll turn the call over to Joe to go through the numbers in more detail.
Joe Massaro :
Thanks, Kevin, and good morning, everyone. Starting on Slide 11. As Kevin highlighted, Aptiv reported another quarter of strong financial results, reflecting robust execution across both segments and continued improvement in operating performance. Revenues were up 25% to $5.2 billion or 10% above underlying vehicle production, excluding the impact of acquisitions. With outgrowth driven in part by strength in our ASUX segment, particularly in active safety as well as continued traction in our high-voltage and commercial vehicle product lines. Adjusted EBITDA and operating income were $695 million and $530 million, respectively, reflecting flow-through on increased volumes of approximately 30%, continued progress on our ongoing performance initiatives, including a $70 million improvement in supply chain disruption costs from last year, and margin headwinds of 90 basis points from FX and commodities primarily due to the stronger Mexican peso and weaker Chinese RMB. Earnings per share in the quarter were $1.25, an increase of $1.03 from the prior year, driven by higher operating income, which more than offset the negative FX and commodity impact. Operating cash was $535 million, which was $440 million above the same period last year, primarily driven by higher earnings and reduced working capital investment during the quarter. Capital expenditures were $222 million. Looking at revenues in more detail on Slide 12. The Revenue in the second quarter was a record $5.2 billion, representing adjusted growth of 25%. Growth was broad-based across regions and segments and our recent acquisitions added $176 million of revenue in the quarter. Net price and commodities were positive, more than offsetting the FX impact on revenue. From a regional perspective, North American revenues were up 19%, 4% above market, reflecting program timing at several customers with increased launch activity expected in the second half of the year. In Europe, revenues increased by 28%, 14% above market, supported by growth in active safety and user experience. In China, revenues grew 41% or 20% over market reflecting the strength of our underlying product portfolio, particularly in active safety and high voltage. Moving to the segments on the next slide. Advanced Safety User Experience revenues rose 39% in the quarter were 24 points over vehicle production. The outperformance was driven by strength in several product lines, including active safety where revenues were up 49%. Segment adjusted operating income was $138 million, up $168 million when compared to the same period last year, despite a 90-basis points headwind from FX, with strong flow-through on incremental volumes of approximately 30% as well as net price and operating performance that offset higher material and higher labor costs. Signal and Power revenues were up 21%, 6 points above market. Market outperformance was driven by strength in several key product lines, including high-voltage and commercial vehicle. Segment operating income totaled $392 million, up 61% from the prior year despite an FX and commodity headwind of 90 basis points. Driven by strong flow-through on incremental volumes, offsetting the net price and commodities impact as well as improvements in operating performance to lower disruption costs, which more than offset the impact of higher labor costs in the quarter. Turning to Slide 14 and our updated 2023 macro outlook. We've increased our outlook for adjusted growth to 11% to 13% for the full year, a meaningful increase from our original range of 7% to 9%, and we continue to expect to outgrow the market by 9%. The change in outlook primarily reflects increases in customer production schedules in North America and Europe, resulting in vehicle production growth of approximately 4% and 5% at the midpoint, respectively. Please note that our production outlook does not assume any significant North American labor disruptions. We expect China to be essentially flat on a year-over-year basis, in line with our prior guide. Although we continue to see strong EV penetration, particularly with our Chinese OEM customers. In addition to changes in vehicle production volumes, we have also reflected current foreign exchange and commodity rates into the updated guide. The next slide summarizes our updated 2023 outlook. We now expect revenue in the range of $19.95 billion to $20.25 billion. EBITDA and operating income are expected to be approximately $2.8 billion and $2.1 billion at the midpoint, respectively. This reflects year-over-year operating income flow-through of 21%, in line with our historical range of 18% to 22% despite significant FX and commodity headwinds. Adjusted earnings per share of $4.75 at the midpoint, up almost 40% from prior year, driven by higher earnings, partially offset by higher tax and interest expense. Operating cash flow of approximately $2 billion, an increase of approximately $100 million over the prior guidance. Slide 16 walks prior guidance to our current outlook. Starting with revenue. Sales volume increases by $700 million, reflecting higher European and North American customer schedules. Net price, commodities, and foreign exchange contributed positively to revenue driven by the rate changes I previously discussed. Adjusted operating income is up $125 million over prior guide as flow-through on sales growth and higher operating performance is partially offset by the negative impact of foreign exchange and the timing of copper price adjustments to our customers. Net pricing, which includes the impact of customer price downs price recoveries and material inflation remains in line with our original guidance. As previously discussed, the impact of foreign exchange movements, particularly the stronger pace for weaker RMB, have been significant this year, representing a $100 million headwind to the original guide. However, assuming rates for the balance of the year remain relatively consistent with the rates used in our updated guidance, including a stronger euro that partially offset a peso and RMB impact, we believe the majority of the negative impact has been reflected in the first half results. In summary, we are pleased with Aptiv's year-to-date performance, including the continued growth of our key product lines, strong bookings, and continued margin expansion. Our performance initiatives, including efforts to significantly reduce and ultimately eliminate disruption costs and to offset significant labor inflation are on track and will continue to build throughout the year. Although we remain cautious about potential negative macroeconomic conditions over the next few quarters and the potential for labor disruptions in North America, we remain confident in our ability to meaningfully outgrow vehicle production. We also believe we are well positioned to take advantage of stronger market conditions should be noted concerns not materialize. With that, I'd like to hand the call back to Kevin for closing remarks.
Kevin Clark :
Thanks, Joe. I'll wrap up on Slide 17 before opening the line for questions. 2023 is off to a good start with record first half revenues, EBITDA and operating income, and strong margin expansion. We maintained our momentum on new business awards for optimized full-system solutions that deliver increased performance at lower cost to our customers. Our outlook for industry volumes has increased and easing supply constraints have led to fewer production disruptions and improved operating efficiencies. And we continue to focus on optimizing our cost structure to further enhance our operational resiliency. Our culture of innovation and commitment to keeping our customers connected is clearly translating into strong commercial momentum, which gives us confidence in our ability to execute our strategy, maintain our track record of performance and deliver sustainable value creation for our shareholders. Operator, let's now open the line for questions.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions]. We will take our first question from John Murphy from Bank of America. Please go ahead.
John Murphy :
Good morning, guys. Thanks for all the information this morning. Just a simple question first on ASUX. It seems like you suddenly just kind of got into escape velocity here. And I'm just curious if that's kind of a fair statement, particularly with these margins at 9%, they're weigh down by some other factors. So, I mean, on a normalized basis, they're actually reapproaching 10%. In the ramp-up of some of these growth segments, I mean, is this where we should be thinking sort of the travel rate for margins? Or is there something else going on in the quarter other than just this kind of escape velocity being reached?
Kevin Clark:
Yes. John, it's -- I'll start and Joe certainly should add to it. Clearly, the environment for semiconductors and supply chain associated with semiconductors has improved. I think as an industry with the semiconductor manufacturers, we've been working over the last couple of years to enhance visibility to enhance alternatives or choices. And with the slowdown in some of the consumer electronics markets, it certainly freed up incremental supply. As a result, it's made our supply chain much more efficient, which results in lower cost from a manufacturing standpoint as well as from a freight and other standpoint, that's reflected in our numbers to date. And then we would expect that to continue into the -- obviously, into the back half of the year as we lower -- Sorry, it sounds like we had a little feedback. As we have lower disruption costs, more operating efficiency, we are able to operate more efficiently and then continue into 2024 and beyond.
John Murphy :
Okay. And then just one follow-up on Intercable using that sort of as a test case for some of these acquisitions that you're making. I mean it sounds like you can't sell this or explain it well enough at how the -- or the expansion opportunity is in front of you for Intercable. I'm just curious in the current base of customers, and the $1 billion that's been won year-to-date or booked year-to-date, are we still looking at a European centric revenue base as far as the customers and there's just extreme opportunity in other regions and with other automakers outside of the European automakers. I'm just trying to understand where this is ultimately going to go.
Kevin Clark:
Yes. I make sure I understand the question. I think today, the bulk of their revenues are related to European unbalanced programs. But as we talked about, previously. One of the reasons that we acquired Intercable is in addition to their technical capabilities and their broad portfolio a view that we could easily provide them with entrees into the North America market, which we've done to date, as I mentioned in our prepared comments, we're already producing products in one of Aptiv's existing manufacturing facilities in Mexico. Then we'll be delivering product to a North American OEM starting this quarter, and we see significant opportunities with the other North American OEMs. And then similarly, with China, although they have manufacturing capabilities in China, just given our knowledge of the market and our experience there, we feel as though that we -- we're a great leverage point for them to sell their product into that market as well. So, as I mentioned, their funnel for bookings opportunities is well over $2 billion. So, the opportunities are really significant with Intercable. They have a great portfolio. They have an even stronger management team. So, we're really excited about the acquisition.
John Murphy :
Great. Thank you, very much.
Operator:
We will take our next question from Itay Michaeli from Citi. Please go ahead.
Itay Michaeli :
Great. Thanks, and good morning everybody. Just two questions for me. Just first, I was hoping you could just walk through the how you think about the H2 versus H1 margin bridge embedded in your guidance? And then just secondly, I didn't notice restructuring expenses kind of moved up in Q2. I think you raised your outlook there. Maybe just hopefully you could elaborate on where you're seeing these restructuring opportunities? And how much more of the lever that could be going forward for margin expansion?
Joe Massaro :
Yes. Let me start with that and then I go to H1, H2 Itay. I would say that, that is -- we've talked about that, not necessarily in the context of the restructured dollars, but things like pivoting engineering to best-cost countries those types of activities, it's obviously what you're seeing. And as we laid out at Investor Day, particularly with engineering, that's really the established margin guidance into 2025, right? So, I would think of that as us taking the necessary actions over time to continue to move toward that commitment versus something incremental. From a bridge perspective, from an H1 to H2, I'm not going to give a lot of detail, but you're going to see a couple of things. There's a slight volume uptick, a little less than $100 million. That sort of flows at call it, 30% on volume. FX will be better. We had about -- be better by about $30 million. We don't expect that these current rates to have as much transaction hits as we did in the first half as we adjusted down. And then you've got, what I'll call, performance initiatives as well as some inflation recovery, that's going to be over $100 million. That's really the big bucket. Some of that's coming out of disruption costs. The other, as I noted, is going to be a continued march on these performance initiatives that we've talked about, and they'll continue to improve over the back half of the year.
Itay Michaeli :
Perfect. I appreciate all that detail. Thank you.
Operator:
We will now move to Rod Lache from Wolfe Research. Please go ahead.
Rod Lache:
Good morning, everybody. Had to just ask you kind of a couple of big picture things. One is in the margin bridge that you presented from 2022 to 2025 at your Investor Day, you had a bucket of $1.7 billion. It was -- I think you called it performance. It was elimination of COVID costs, part of it was some supplier costs. Can you just update us on where that bucket stands now? And what proportion of that $1.7 billion you think we will actually see in 2023?
Joe Massaro :
Yes, Rod, it's Joe. Let me start. So, remember that Bucket big -- that was a '22 to '25 bridge, right? So, you had -- the biggest individual item in that $1.7 billion is about over $300 million, call it, $330 million to $350 million of supply chain disruption costs. We expected a lot of that to come out this year. We had $130 million in the original guide. It's improved now, maybe around $160 million coming out this year. The balance will come out next year. The remaining is just sort of what I'll call sort of those annual material and manufacturing improvements for the three years, '23, '24, '25. I would say you could sort of take those across each of the years. They're a little back-end loaded. They grow into '24 and '25. But for the most part, we're on track. It's really what you're seeing sort of come through in the performance bridges as we've talked, just even over the past -- this past quarter, right, $70 million improvement in supply chain disruption costs alone. So, I might say we're tracking in line with those expectations.
Rod Lache:
Thanks, for that. Okay. And just switching gears. A few western companies seem to have lately realized that the EV forms that they were working on were just too expensive and we've already seen Volkswagen reach out to Xiaoping to use their platform and seemingly, there's a few other discussions in the industry about using Chinese platforms. So, I'm just wondering from Aptiv's perspective, how you -- how that affects you. You did mention again on the call that you've been working with Volkswagen on the architecture of the future. So, would you be agnostic to that? Or is there some -- are there some implications for you if that is something that continues?
Kevin Clark:
Yes, Rod, maybe I'll start with it. Listen, I think as we've talked about in the past, our overall outlook for penetration of battery electric vehicles and electrification overall has been -- I'd say, a bit on the conservative side relative to kind of industry perspective. So that has been our underlying perspective and a significant amount of that perspective is shaped on costs and an understanding of our OEM customers and sensitivity to cost and sensitivity to the cost of new technologies. So that's one. Two, just given the breadth of our product portfolio, given our full system approach to high-voltage electrification in this particular case, we have an opportunity to present our customers with a solution that is much lower cost than a traditional approach to battery electric vehicle architecture. And we've had examples, and we've talked about this in the past, where existing customers with existing -- both platforms have come to us, ask us to evaluate opportunities to optimize. And using our design capabilities and our portfolio of solutions, we've been able to reduce weight and mass by 25% to 30% and overall systems cost by 20% or more. So, given our historical capabilities given our strength, and from a product portfolio standpoint and our knowledge of vehicle architecture, we bring a lot to bear. I'd say the third piece as we've talked about this transition to battery electric vehicles, which in reality has been underway for a long period of time, and we've seen elements of fits and starts during that period. And we've been impacted by those fits and starts. We've been very selective as it relates to those customers, those platforms that we operate on. And we operate on those that we have a high level of confidence they'll be global. They're designed specifically for battery electric vehicle platforms; therefore, we'll get volume. And then from a contracting standpoint, we contract very carefully to the extent we see volume reductions, there are changes in pricing. So just given our past experience, again, as we've seen battery electric vehicles developed and the attempt to introduce some into the markets for the last several years, we've learned a lot of lessons, and we've lessons -- and we've established a really, I would say, a fairly conservative approach in terms of how do we manage risk, but at the same time, how do we develop a portfolio capability that provides our customers with lower cost solutions because we are big believers that over a period of time, you're going to continue to see significant penetration of electrification in our industry.
Rod Lache:
Great. That’s helpful. Thank you.
Operator:
We will take our next question from Chris McNally from Evercore. Please go ahead.
Chris McNally :
Maybe I could start on the top line and macro. I know it gets kind of confusing, talking about North America with the upcoming UAW. So maybe Joe, we can focus in on Europe. Just some quick numbers on the 4% to 6% production, which is lower than the forecasters, I think we have something like 15%, 16% in the first half, so it implies down in the second half, obviously, inflation prices and cost of living, et cetera. But curious if your seeing anything specific. You obviously have a lot of insight there or is there's just a bit of conservatism built in for the next couple of months as schedules firm up?
Joe Massaro :
Yes. Chris, it's a good place to start. I would say Q3, we're on production schedules, right? So, we're sort of locked in at this point with our customers, and we've obviously have been through July. Certainly, and as I said in my prepared remarks, certainly, to the extent there is more production in the back half of the year, I think we'd certainly benefit from it, remaining a little cautious, just given all the -- all the potential sort of macro ups and downs. It's still. The environment is not perfect. It's still a challenging environment. It's -- as Kevin said, it's much better. But yes, a little bit of caution and -- but more in the fourth quarter than in the third. And third, we're fairly locked in at this point on customer schedules.
Chris McNally:
That's really helpful. And if I could just follow up some numbers to Mark's comments on ASUX where the margin progression does seem like it's starting to take off. I think from your 8% to 9% a full year it sort of implies the back half roughly 10%. So, we usually because of some of the price issues we can sort of use it as like a base, and you have a 13.5% -- 13% to 13.5% target for '25. Given that I think that $190 million you just laid out in recovery, a lot of that will come in ASUX assuming that we have, okay, up small, low single-digit volumes next year that we can kind of split the difference, and start to think about '24 being somewhere in between the halfway point of that 10%, and let's call it 13.5%. Or is there anything that takes longer, why it would be more of a back-end loaded 13% plus margin in '25?
Joe Massaro :
Yes. We--I'm not going to get into '24. It's a little too early in the year to do this. I think we remain confident in the '25 numbers for both total active as well as the segments. I would think it will be a steady march of continued volume growth in the key product lines, continued improvement. The price -- the team has done a good job on inflation recoveries. The environment, you could still have lumpy quarters between then and 2025 but feel like it's going to be a pretty steady march. Exactly where 2024 falls out, it's obviously something we've got to work out. But as we look at what's rolling on in that business, increase software content, those types of things still remain confident in that 2025 range.
Chris McNally:
Very helpful. Thank you.
Operator:
We will take our next question from Adam Jonas from Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.
Adam Jonas :
Thanks, everybody. Kevin, I thought your answer to Rob answer, a question -- there's a bit of an echo. On the pulling back on the more conservative EV targets given your experience was really well done. I guess if I follow up on that if there was a scenario where your 2025, and then longer-term EVs assumptions were really dominated by Tesla and the Chinese, like I'm thinking 5% plus share of the EV market being those two regimes, would that be mix adverse for you? Or, Yes. I just kind of leave that open-ended, but just kind of think -- curious how you would approach that level of concentration because there may be some scenarios where there's a win or take most on these global platforms. And then I have a follow-up. Thanks.
Kevin Clark :
Yes. I'm not going to talk about specific customers, Adam. I would say when you look at -- our revenue mix by region were pretty balanced between North America, Europe, and China growth opportunities in China, I'd say on a relative basis, are more significant. So, from a funnel standpoint, any bookings opportunity standpoint, that is an area that we're -- we're very focused on. Your comment on a winner take all. Our China high-voltage or BEV customers are very focused not only on the China market but increasingly regarding exports into other markets, which I think is a part of what you're alluding to. China customers from a system standpoint tend to be more clients to buy a full system solution for us -- from us. So, that tends to be a higher margin solution relative to selling component parts. So, I'm not sure if that's a net benefit for us or just a net neutral.
Adam Jonas :
Okay, Kevin. And either Kevin or Joe, on Motional, can you give us the latest update on the capital need there in terms of cash consumption? And then what have you got left in the tank before we need to put more in the kitty? Thanks.
Joe Massaro :
Yes. Yes. No, Adam, no changes on that front since the last couple of quarters. They have cash through or at least into Q2 of next year, and continue to make progress on the technical and commercial side of things. And as we've said previously, probably not the most receptive capital market at this point. Obviously, our partner, Hyundai, and ourselves are looking at it. I had to call it today, I'd say the partners fund another year of operations. I haven't made that decision yet, but that would be the most likely outcome. I think if we had to call it today, and they're going through about $500 million, $550 million of cash per year. So, it would be a split of that.
Adam Jonas :
Thanks, Joe thanks, Kevin.
Joe Massaro :
Thank you.
Operator:
We will take our next question from Dan Levy from Barclays. Please go ahead.
Dan Levy :
Hi, good morning, and thank you, for taking the question. First, I wanted to just ask on commodities. It was -- you noted it was a headwind in the quarter. Maybe you could just provide us, Joe, with a bit more color on what the drag in the quarter was related to? And more broadly, what are you seeing in semis? Is there -- it sounds like the environment is getting better, it's more stable. Is there any path to relief on the cost pressures that you saw in recent years in semiconductors?
Joe Massaro :
So, two distinct questions there. Let me take commodities. For us, commodities is still mainly copper, sort of nothing -- nothing's changed over the last couple of years of that. We copper, we're indexed to copper with our customers for the vast majority, 80% of our copper buy those prices get adjusted either quarterly or in some cases, semiannually, we have one customer or a large customer, we actually do monthly. So, all we're dealing with there is really the lag. How much copper do we have in at a certain price before we can pass it along or before we can, in this case, increase the prices. So, you wind up with that lag every once in a while. And copper tends to be more of a margin rate impact in margin dollars. As it relates to semi, we've obviously passed along the price increases that we have received to date. We've been sort of direct a chip goes up, we pass that cost along to our customers. We will continue to do that as if and when we see additional inflation coming in the year. I would tell you at this point, don't see any indications of chip prices coming down. And I think if you look at least in some of the chip folks that are -- have a large automotive presence, I think they've been sort of echoing that, at least the potential to hold or maybe even go up in some of their public comments. So, we remain vigilant. We would expect to pass additional price increases through to our customers, but certainly don't see any downside on those prices at this point.
Dan Levy :
Okay. Thank you. And then just a related question. If we zoom out and look at the last few years, obviously, the results have been dragged by all the material inflation headwinds, largely semiconductors. And I assume that when you're booking your bookings that pricing is based on the commodity or input cost outlook at that time, and obviously, it's progressed to be a bit tougher since then. So, what steps are you taking to ensure that -- as your backlog rolls on, as that becomes revenue and launches that you're going to get the appropriate pricing to ensure that the margins are in line with what you'd like them to be as opposed to being dragged maybe by an input cost outlook from a prior time.
Joe Massaro :
So, Dan, we've talked about this a couple of times before. So, the renegotiation on price with customers covered in-process products, right, products that were being manufactured and things that were near launch, call it, within sort of 12 months plus to launch. For programs that are longer further out from a start date perspective, we have the opportunity, and we've done this even before semiconductors prices have gone up typically, before we really start to put capital on the ground, right, you got a sort of a two-year to three-year window before program start, there are various touch point customers around the economics of the program. Customers need that. We want that. Suppliers want that. Those tended historically to have been around volumes, right? If a program looks like it's going to be significantly higher in volume, the OEM wants to have a discussion, if it's going to be lower in volume, the supplier wants to have a discussion. Bond costs are historically part of those. So, as we get up to the point of starting production or putting capital to work to start production, we have a mechanism in place and the team does a good job at it to go back to customers on the overall economics of the program and bond costs are going to obviously now are included in that have always been but are now sort of at the top of the list, particularly with semiconductors of things that get discussed. And sorted out to get the program back to the original economic deal that was struck.
Kevin Clark :
Dan, if I could add one comment? I think Joe did a great job explaining how we contract and how we operate with our customers. At the same time, right, the last couple of years, there's been a lot of focus on, one, keeping our employees safe and then more recently, obviously, just supply chain connectivity by keeping our customers connected, and as Joe articulated, passing on price increases to customers. At the same time, we've been very focused on how we continue to enhance our business model. So, from a supply chain standpoint, whether it's semiconductor chips or is resin or other inputs to what we manufacture. We've been very focused on how do we redesign the product and take out content, lower cost, how do we operate with our supply base more efficiently and more effectively to lower cost how do we operate with our customers from a supply chain standpoint as well to increase efficiency and take out cost. And then at the same time, when you look at inflation in around areas like labor, we continue to rotate where we do things, how do we increase our -- how do we move manufacturing, engineering, and other as well as how do we improve the productivity within the existing four walls so that we -- again, on an organic basis, we're driving down our cost of operating. So, it's really a two-pronged approach in terms of pushing incremental inflation onto our customers, while at the same time, trying to operate more efficiently, whether or not we're getting -- we're experiencing material inflation and other items.
Dan Levy :
Thank you, that was very helpful.
Operator:
We will take our next question from Mark Delaney from Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.
Mark Delaney :
Good morning. Thank you for taking my question. You mentioned that Aptiv has been a little bit more conservative on its EV volume projections given the cost of those platforms. I'm hoping you can clarify, whether has there been a change at all in Aptiv's own outlook for EV volumes this year because some OEMs have certainly talked recently about seeing some slower EV growth, but perhaps some or all of that is being offset by upside that other OEMs may be realizing?
Kevin Clark :
No. Listen, our assumptions have always been lower than what I think some of the industry forecasts have. So, I'd say from a baseline standpoint, overall view on BEV penetration, high voltage penetration has been lower and has been for an extended period of time as we evaluate business cases for specific platforms or customers, our assumptions on volume tend to be on the more conservative side. And as I mentioned, as it relates to contracting and pricing, we have some levers that we include to provide us with some risk mitigation. So, nothing has changed in terms of our overall outlook. I would say the industry is probably coming closer to where our initial perspectives were as related to bet penetration. Having said that, although we're more conservative revenue growth in the second quarter on high-voltage solutions is close to 50%. So, -- and we're still expecting very significant growth for the balance of the year and into the out years.
Joe Massaro :
Yes, Mark, it's Joe. I mean we had talked about at Investor Day high-voltage being at least 30% grower per year for '23, '24, '25, and that view has not changed at all. So, I think that's -- that was reflective of sort of where we were on our estimates relative to the broader sort of forecasting community.
Mark Delaney :
That's very helpful context. Thank you. And my other question was just around software, and Wind River and some OEMs have continued to struggle with the understandable large challenge of software integration. You mentioned momentum with Wind River and I'm curious if you could elaborate a bit more on the types of engagements Wind River is seen with auto OEMs, and perhaps there's been a recent uptick to some of these challenges that the industry is facing that Wind River can help to address? Thanks.
Kevin Clark :
Yes. I'm not sure there's an uptick. I think the industry still wrestles with software. I think there are still major challenges. Wind River has announced a number of program wins with OEMs, I think today we're, we're actively engaged with, I don't know, 10 OEM to 12 OEMs as it relates to their underlying kind of software architecture and some of the needs that Wind River can provide a lot of momentum there. As I mentioned in my prepared comments, I would expect by the end of the year to have some additional amounts to make. So, those challenges present an opportunity for Wind River. And then when you think about the middleware, real-time operating system as it relates to Aptiv, whether it be in user experience or ADAS or other areas, certainly opportunities for Aptiv as well.
Mark Delaney :
Thank you.
Operator:
We will be taking our final question from Tom Narayan from RBC. Please go ahead.
Tom Narayan :
Hi, thank you for taking the question. Joe, maybe can you help us understand ASUX timing in 2023? I remember from Q1, I think there were some orders that may have been pushed out. Did those really come in, in Q2? Or are there kind of more to come there on H2? And I know there were I think there were some engineering credits that you expected later in the year. Just trying to understand how we should think about the ASUX business.
Joe Massaro :
Yes. On the -- on the engineering credit, that's a very normal flow that happens every year on ASUX. Last year, by way of example, it was about $40 million of credits in the back half of the year. I'm not saying it will be that amount this year, but that's an order of magnitude, call it, somewhere sort of $20 million to $40 million is sort of a good range to use on that. As it relates to -- you're right, as it relates to Q1, ASUX had a couple of launches that launch, but we're ramping slower than expected due to supply availability from other suppliers. As we talked about at the time, those programs really came back online in March, and have been hitting schedules since -- and that was in North America. I think ASUX North America's growth over the market was north of 20% in the second quarter. So, those are back what you saw now in North America, I referenced, we've got -- which is, again, nothing to do with supply chain, sort of getting back to sort of normal ebbs and flows of the business. We've got some -- on the SPS side, we've got some programs winding down. We've got a heavy launch calendar in the back half of the year. So, I think as you get to the end of the year, North America's growth over the market will look like the rest of the business, but you always get a little bit of lumpiness from time to time in some of those numbers.
Tom Narayan :
I don't know if you guys can answer this. But on the whole UAW situation, and this might be a question really for the OEMs, but -- have you guys noticed OEMs kind of building inventory ahead of it? Or maybe put another way, looking back at what happened in 2019 for you guys, is there anything you've learned from that experience that could help you prepare in the event something happens? Thanks.
Kevin Clark :
Yes. Listen, I think we direct you to our OEM customers. So, we don't have a UAW workforce in North America. So, from a direct employee standpoint, that's not something where we have exposure where we have exposure. I think we would say, having gone through it in 2019. There's some small operational lessons learned as it relates to kind of supply chain management, and inventory management. Things like that. But I think it's a question more appropriate for our OEM customers.
Tom Narayan :
Got it thank you.
Operator:
That concludes today's question-and-answer session. Kevin Clark, at this time, I will turn the conference back to you for any additional or closing remarks.
Kevin Clark :
Great. Thank you very much. We appreciate everyone joining us this morning. Have a great day. Take care.
Operator:
This concludes today's call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Good day, and welcome to the Aptiv Q1 2023 Earnings Call. Today's conference is being recorded. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Jane Wu, Vice President, Investor Relations and Corporate Development. Please, go ahead.
Jane Wu:
Thank you, Ally. Good morning and thank you for joining Aptiv's first quarter 2023 earnings conference call. The press release and related tables, along with the slide presentation, can be found on the Investor Relations portion of our website at aptiv.com Today's review of our financials exclude amortization, restructuring and other special items and we'll address the continuing operations of Aptiv. The reconciliations between GAAP and non-GAAP measures for our first quarter financials as well as our full year 2023 outlook are included at the back of the slide presentation and the earnings press release. During today's call, we will be providing certain forward-looking information that reflects Aptiv's current view of future financial performance, and may be materially different for reasons that we cite in our Form 10-K and other SEC filings. Joining us today will be Kevin Clark, Aptiv's Chairman and CEO; and Joe Massaro, CFO and Senior Vice President of Business Operations. Kevin will provide a strategic update on the business, and Joe will cover the financial results in more detail before we open the call to Q&A. With that, I'd like to turn the call over to Kevin Clark.
Kevin Clark:
Thanks, Jane, and thanks, everyone, for joining us this morning. Beginning on Slide 3. We had a strong start to the year, showcasing our ability to continue to execute in a dynamic macro environment. Touching on a few of the highlights. Revenue increased 15% to $4.8 billion, a new record for quarterly revenue, representing 6 points of growth over underlying vehicle production, supported by strength across all regions and product lines, particularly in our ASUX segment. Operating income and earnings per share totaled $437 million and $0.91 respectively, reflecting solid flow-through on volume growth and contributions from our recent acquisitions, Wind River and Intercable Automotive, partially offset by periodic supply chain disruptions and unfavorable foreign exchange and commodity prices. New business bookings totaled $13.9 billion, driven by a record level of customer awards for our Smart Vehicle Architecture and High-Voltage solutions, further demonstrating our strategic value to our customers as the industry accelerates towards the fully electrified software-defined vehicle. Turning to Slide 4. While the overall macro environment remains challenging, we're beginning to see supply chain improvements that are broadly in line with our expectations. Our 15% revenue growth in the first quarter was supported by a 9% increase in underlying global vehicle production, principally driven by stronger-than-forecasted customer schedules in North America and Europe. We continue to benefit from consumer demand for more feature-rich, highly electrified vehicles, which could further accelerate with more stringent government regulations, such as the recent EPA proposal that will result in electric vehicles representing at least half of U.S. new car sales in 2030. Although supply chain issues persist, we're now seeing sequential improvements in the overall supply of semiconductors, which has translated in a more stable vehicle production schedules. While we work to position ourselves to benefit from these near and long-term tailwinds, we remain focused on optimizing our business foundation, ensuring that we have the right talent and operational footprint to execute on our current and future platforms. We continue to enhance our regional operating model and expand our global execution capabilities by rotating our engineering resources to our technology centers located in India and Poland and establishing new engineering centers in Cairo, Egypt and Monterrey, Mexico, which are emerging hubs for software talent. We also continue to address increasing material and labor inflation through supply chain resilience initiatives and the rotation of our manufacturing footprint to best cost locations. The majority of our direct material spend is now mapped in our digital network model, providing greater visibility into our global supply chain and enabling us to better predict and minimize the impact of supply constraints. In addition, our execution of strategic long-term agreements for select semiconductors has better positioned us to secure supply for the future, ensuring that we're aligned to our customers' product road maps and solidifying our position as a reliable and trusted partner of choice. And lastly, we continue to shift manufacturing capacity with higher direct labor content to best cost countries or regions and invest in high-return production automation initiatives, all of which has enhanced our operating execution and position us well for commercial pursuits. Moving to Slide 5. The pace of our new business bookings is a true testament to the value that we bring to our customers, not just from the strength of our portfolio of advanced technologies, but also for a track record of strong execution. As mentioned, first quarter new business bookings totaled $13.9 billion, more than double last year's first quarter amount in just under last year's record quarterly booking of $14.2 billion. Advanced Safety and User Experience bookings totaled $6.4 billion, driven by $5 billion in Smart Vehicle Architecture bookings, which doubled our cumulative customer awards for SBA to a total of $10 billion over the last 2 years with 8 different OEMs and nearly $1 billion in active safety bookings including global RADAR program with a Japan-based global OEM and a program with Geely, which represents the seventh OEM to adopt Aptiv's ADAS platform, leveraging our full system solutions to optimize ADAS performance up to L2+. Signal and Power Solutions new business bookings totaled $7.5 billion, including a record $1.8 billion in bookings for high-voltage electrification solutions comprised of awards from both traditional and new battery electric vehicle OEMs across our high-voltage electrical architecture and engineered components product lines. We continue to see a very balanced bookings profile, underscoring the strength of our high-voltage portfolio and providing a clear line of sight to exceed last year's $4.5 billion in high-voltage business awards. Overall, the pace of our strategic engagement with customers is only accelerating, and we remain highly confident in achieving our target of $32 billion in new business awards for the full year. Further validation of the value we deliver as the only provider of end-to-end full system solutions. Turning to Slide 6 to review our Advanced Safety & User Experience segment highlights. In the first quarter, ASU achieved record revenue of $1.4 billion, growing 9 points above underlying vehicle production. Growth in Active Safety was strong across all regions as production of our Level 2 and 2+ ADAS solutions continue to ramp, while user experience grew in line with the market, consistent with our expectations. As I mentioned, we're experiencing strong commercial momentum with our Smart Vehicle Architecture solution. The $5 billion of new business awards during the quarter includes a large zone control award with a major North American-based global OEM and an additional award from a major European-based global OEM for a central vehicle controller. Diving more deeply into our progress with Wind River, although the acquisition only closed at the end of last year, we've experienced an acceleration in customer engagements and potential revenue opportunities. In February, we announced our early success leveraging Wind River software offerings integrated into Aptiv's ADAS platform to support L2+ automation for the Geely program I mentioned earlier. And building off this early success in China, in March, a major local Chinese OEM selected Aptiv and Wind River for a joint advanced development program to design their next-generation vehicle architecture, spanning the full suite of software and hardware solutions from both Wind River and Aptiv. Outside of the automotive market, Wind River continues to expand its business across the other mission-critical industries it serves. Aerospace and defense and telecom companies, for example, are relying on Wind River solution to develop, deploy, operate and service their software-defined products. And there's been a tremendous amount of commercial activity in these markets year-to-date, including the expansion of Wind River's Edge Software within several leading aerospace and defense customers for dozens of new programs and more recently, a significant deployment of 5G cloud-native capabilities to a major telco provider, further establishing the company's leadership in the 5G landscape where it powers the majority of 5G deployments with global operators. These Wind River offerings were also showcased at Mobile World Congress in Barcelona, where Wind River successfully demonstrated how its studio platform is transforming the 5G and O-RAN space, which has led to increased dialogue and new opportunities with additional large global telco operators. We're confident that these strategic engagements will lead to additional customer awards in the months to come. Turning to the Signal and Power Solutions segment on Slide 7. We remain perfectly positioned to deliver next-gen vehicle architecture solutions that are optimized for weight, size and total system costs all the way from the grid to the vehicle. SPS growth over market totaled 5% during the quarter, supported by strong outgrowth in China of 13%, which was partially driven by increased demand for battery electric vehicles and a 28% increase in high-voltage revenues, reflecting strong growth across all regions. The record $1.8 billion in high-voltage bookings during the quarter included a $400 million high-voltage charging award with the North American-based global OEM, which will be used across our BEV portfolio on platforms beginning to launch in early 2024. And our previously announced Power Electronics award was an integrated battery management system, spanning both hardware and software, demonstrating our ability to develop new products to further expand our competitive moat. Moving to our other key acquisition, Intercable Automotive. Strong growth in the quarter was driven by program launches with key European customers. In addition, Intercable booked $500 million in new business awards, reflecting continued market demand and commercial traction with multiple OEMs. During the quarter, we've made significant progress expanding Intercable operations in North America and China, now adding manufacturing capacity in Mexico to more effectively serve North American customers. As the global technology leader in high-voltage busbars and interconnects, Intercables continue to develop and expand its product portfolio. Intercable recently won their first cell-to-cell connection system award with a German OEM, making the first - marking the first time they brought their technology from outside to inside the battery. Intertables focus on continuous product innovation, combined with Aptiv [ph] support in expanding their global manufacturing capabilities has increased our pipeline of new business opportunities by 40% compared to last year with the funnel continuing to grow. Moving to Slide 8. Building on our full stack solution approach, we continue to see increased adoption of our Smart Vehicle Architecture platform. As already highlighted, we have now successfully transitioned from the introduction of smart vehicle compute as a concept back in 2017 to $10 billion in cumulative SVA bookings today, and the accelerating demand for battery electric vehicles is providing a further catalyst for OEMs to take a clean sheet approach in vehicle architecture. To date, we've completed multiple advanced development programs for our Smart Vehicle solution and many of these programs have translated into new business awards, successfully validating that SVA can reduce complexity, improve scalability and unlock new software-enabled functionality, all while lowering the total system cost of the vehicle. With the addition of Wind River, we're now seeing increased interest in after providing a full system solution for both hardware and software from our customers. The industry is recognizing that the underlying software architecture of the vehicle must be modernized alongside the hardware architecture in order to unlock the full value of the car of the future. This involves truly up-integrating and serverizing the compute platform, while addressing the demands of safety-critical real-time applications, all of which are SVA solution, including Wind River's cloud-enabled software platform can deliver. We're now engaged in discussions with a number of OEMs around the world regarding the combined Aptiv Wind River Solution, particularly in China, where customers move faster and have more quickly embraced what Wind River can enable in the software-defined vehicle. The automotive industry also needs to adopt a true DevOps approach in order to take full advantage of this new software hardware architecture paradigm, creating new business models enabled by full life cycle management, which will lead to faster speed to market and increase flexibility, while at the same time, reducing software development, deployment and warranty costs for our OEM customers. Before I turn the call over to Joe, I want to take a minute on Slide 9 to reiterate how Aptiv is uniquely positioned to create long-term value. Our portfolio of advanced technologies enable optimized full system solutions that improve performance to lower cost and accelerate the path to the fully electrified software-defined vehicle. Executing our strategy has positioned us to further leverage the accelerating safe, green and connected megatrends. And as a result, Aptiv is uniquely positioned to capitalize on opportunities in both the automotive and adjacent markets. As we've shown in our first quarter results, we're solidly on track to meet our 2023 commitments and well on our way to delivering on our 2025 financial targets and are perfectly positioned to further expand our competitive moat and deliver continued outperformance as a fast-growing, more profitable business. With that, I'll now turn the call over to Joe to go through the numbers in more detail.
Joe Massaro:
Thanks, Kevin, and good morning, everyone. Starting on Slide 10. Aptiv delivered strong financial results in the first quarter, reflecting robust execution across both segments and sequential improvement in the supply chain, although disruptions still persist. Revenues were up 15% to a record $4.8 billion or 6% above underlying vehicle production without growth across all regions and strength in ASUX. Growth over vehicle production was driven by active safety and high-voltage launches in China and Europe. North America was negatively impacted by program timing and acute supply chain constraints with certain large North American customers, which are not expected to carry over to the remainder of the year. Note that our growth over vehicle production excludes the impact of acquisitions. Adjusted EBITDA and operating income were $594 million and $437 million, respectively, reflecting flow-through on increased volumes at roughly 30%. Higher manufacturing and material performance, which offset an $80 million increase in labor costs in the quarter and FX and commodities that negatively impacted OI margins by 100 basis points, primarily due to a stronger Mexican peso and weaker RMB. And as Kevin noted, both Wind River and Intercable posted strong results for the quarter, in line with our expectations. Wind River saw strong growth in both the telecom and A&D end markets. And although that business may be lumpy on a quarterly basis, we remain on track for strong full year growth. Earnings per share in the quarter were $0.91, an increase of 44% from the prior year due to higher operating income, partially offset by higher tax expense and equity losses at Motional. Operating cash was an outflow of $9 million, which was $193 million above the same period last year, primarily a result of lower year-over-year working capital investment during the quarter. Capital expenditures were $269 million, in line with our expectations to support launch and booking activity. And lastly, we completed $70 million in share repurchases in the quarter. Looking at the first quarter revenues on Slide 11. Our record revenue of $4.8 billion reflects growth across all regions, driven by the ramp-up in key product lines and approximately $180 million from our recent acquisitions. Net price and the impact of commodities were a slight positive in the quarter, offset by the negative impact of FX headwinds. From a regional perspective, North American revenues were up 14% or 4% above market. Adjusted growth was driven by increases in active safety and a continued ramp-up of high voltage, while negatively impacted by the program timing and supply chain constraints I noted earlier. In Europe, revenues increased by 24% as volumes lapped the prior year impact of the Ukraine, Russia war and active safety programs continue to scale. In China, revenues grew 10 points over market driven in part by growth in high voltage as demand for battery electric vehicles remains strong and active safety, up over 30% in the quarter. Moving to the segments on the next slide. Advanced Safety and User Experience revenues rose 18% in the quarter or 9 points of growth over underlying vehicle production. Segment adjusted operating income was $63 million, up $47 million year-over-year or a 310 basis point improvement in margins as a result of strong flow through on incremental volume and higher material and manufacturing performance. Signal and Power revenues rose 14% in the period or 5 points above market. Segment operating income totaled $374 million in the quarter, a 90 basis point margin improvement despite the margin rate headwinds from FX and commodities, driven by strong flow-through on incremental volume, lower COVID and supply chain costs of $30 million and material and manufacturing performance improvements. Turning to Slide 13 and our 2023 macro outlook. We continue to believe that we have appropriately reflected the current market dynamics and our guidance for full year 2023, which reflects approximately 85 million units of global vehicle production. As discussed during our prior earnings call, we expect sequential improvement in the supply chain through the year. But ongoing supply chain disruptions and macro challenges are impacting overall customer production levels. Turning to our full year outlook on the next slide. As noted, our Q1 results were in line with our expectations. And accordingly, our full year financial outlook is unchanged from the guidance provided last quarter. We continue to expect revenue in the range of $18.7 billion to $19.3 billion, up 8% on the midpoint compared to prior year. EBITDA and operating income of approximately $2.7 billion and $2 billion at the midpoint, respectively, and earnings per share of $4.25. Despite near-term concerns about the broader macro environment, we remain confident that we are well positioned to deliver market outgrowth in the range of 8% to 10%. Turning to the next slide. Our strong outgrowth is supported by several key product lines, each of which are well aligned with the accelerating megatrends. Starting with our Active Safety business. Despite supply chain disruptions, Level 2 and 2+ platforms are continuing to scale, driving 30% adjusted growth in 2023. We also continue to make meaningful investments in our high-voltage electrification portfolio, further enabling Aptiv to provide the power and data infrastructure solutions required for the next-gen vehicle architectures. We expect our High-Voltage product line to grow over 30% in 2023, driven by our strong legacy portfolio and then further benefiting from Intercable Automotive's differentiated modular busbars and high-voltage interconnects. Lastly, our Smart Vehicle Compute and Software product line, which we highlighted during our Capital Markets Day is expected to grow 20% this year on a pro forma basis. This largely reflects Wind River's already strong growth in middleware and DevOps outside of the automotive industry. With that, I'd like to hand the call back to Kevin for his closing remarks.
Kevin Clark:
Thanks, Joe. I'll wrap up on Slide 16 before opening up the line for questions. As I mentioned, 2023 is off to a great start with customer market and supply chain tailwinds all contributing to our strong first quarter performance. Customer engagements for Aptiv's SVA solutions and Wind River software offerings are incredibly strong as we continue to deliver value by providing optimized full system solutions with increased performance at lower cost. As expected, we've seen sequential improvements in the supply of constrained parts resulting in fewer production disruptions. And we continue to optimize our cost structure to improve our operational resiliency. That being said, we remain laser-focused on mitigating the impact of persistent macro challenges, including ongoing material and labor inflation, as well as the periodic supply chain disruptions. In summary, we're experiencing tremendous commercial momentum and we've never been more confident in our ability to execute our strategy, deliver on our commitments and maintain our track record of outperformance, all of which will drive sustainable value creation for our shareholders. Operator, let's now open up the line for questions.
Operator:
Of course, thank you. [Operator Instructions] And we'll go ahead and take our first question from Chris McNally with Evercore. Please go ahead.
Chris McNally:
Good morning. Thank you. So two quick questions on sort of auto 1 [ph] I guess the first, if we start with the obvious on production, the slide, Joe, you call it an in-line quarter, but I think we're all starting to see better production in Q1, the schedule for Europe full year. So I think the main question is your minus one global production, are you seeing something in your call offs that are quite different than sort of the LMCI [ph] just 4% to 5%? Or Joe, is it just too early in the year to update that and you'll have more visibility maybe in the middle of the year?
Joe Massaro:
Yes. I think it's the latter, Chris. I mean schedules were in line with what we expected for the most part in Q1. As I said, in North America, we did have a couple of OEs that get impacted by supply chain constraints not related to us. So we weren't the constraint, but we were obviously impacted. They didn't build as many vehicles as they thought. But again, overall, I'd say in line. And I think, yes, generally speaking, an in-line quarter, we continue to be tied out to customer schedules in Q2. Understand there's some optimism out there in the back half of the year. But our view is, you know, it's a little early at this point in early May to call that. But I would say Q1 as a positive in terms of both what we saw our customers do and how the business performed, and we'd expect that to continue into Q2.
Chris McNally:
And Joe, as a slight follow-up, is it fair to say that there's some early shoots in Europe on the production side? I mean we're sort of seeing it on the sales and regs, which is giving us a little bit that confidence just on Europe specifically?
Joe Massaro:
Yes. I would say Europe has progressively gotten, I would say, from a customer perspective and what we're seeing on the ground, sentiment has been improving since the late fall of last year. I think that continues again, a little - for us, a little too early to put it into the numbers, and we have to really see it in customer schedules as we get detailed production schedules for the back half of the year. But sentiment has been improving since what I'll call that low in sort of September, October last year, in our view.
Chris McNally:
Great. And then the last quick one. On the strong orders number, obviously, a big, big number for SVA. Does it - will that have any negative impact to the guide versus prior expectations? Sometimes there's engineering expense that falls when orders are this big. Just if you can comment on that. Thank you.
Kevin Clark:
Yes. Maybe I'll take that, Chris. I think just given the nature of – the strategic nature of those SVA programs, the bulk of that activity has been proceeded with advanced development programs. So there's very clear line of sight as it relates to investment required in timing of that investment, and that's obviously incorporated into the outlook for the - for this year as well as beyond 2023.
Chris McNally:
Thanks so much.
Operator:
We'll go ahead and move on to our next question from John Murphy with Bank of America. Please go ahead.
John Murphy:
Good morning, guys. First question around the price cuts that are going on in EVs both in China and the U.S., to a lesser extent, in Europe, also to a lesser extent. What could that mean for volumes for EVs for you? And Kevin, I know with Wind River and SVA, there's kind of a view of sort of the full life cycle management. It seems like there's a developing strategy of your lower margin at the front end on the vehicle and higher margin or profit over time from the lifetime of the vehicle. How could those SVA and Wind River maybe partake in that as well as help the automakers achieve that?
Kevin Clark:
Yes. Well, I think your first question, listen, we haven't - to the extent you see cost of those - prices on those electric vehicles decline, you should see the opportunity for more pull through, more sales, more retail demand. I'd say, near term, we haven't seen much of a change. But having said that, Joe walked you through the numbers. I talked about the bookings. We see a tremendous amount of demand for vehicle electrification that we obviously benefit from. As it relates to SVA, both the hardware solution as well as the software solution really, it's an effort from an OEM standpoint to enable ongoing revenue opportunities. And I'm not sure any of them have, John, concluded that upfront profit on the vehicle will be less. I think the real focus is on how do we drive efficiency as it relates to designing, engineering, manufacturing and ultimately delivering a vehicle. And then how can they, on an ongoing basis, either address issues that minimize warranty costs as well as to provide revenue - ongoing revenue opportunities with enhanced ADAS solutions, enhanced user experience opportunities, opportunities on the battery as it relates to increasing battery life or range. So it's really that endgame that's really driving the demand. And I think given what the industry has gone through over the last couple of years as it relates to heading towards software-defined vehicles, given the challenge associated with that, I think there's been a lot of learnings. And I think as a result, we've been involved in a lot of discussions, which has generated a lot of demand for what we offer, both from a hardware standpoint as well as Wind River software solution.
John Murphy:
Okay. Maybe just to follow-up to put it more so succinctly, how much opportunity for revenue and profit do you think you may have beyond initial point of sale? And maybe on these calls at some point in the future, we might stop talking about global production, and you might start talking about subs. Or how much of your revenue could be beyond point of sale that will be much more probable over time?
Kevin Clark:
Yes. No, it's - I don't have a specific number other than saying it's big. To the extent we have a - we have solutions that enable life cycle management, that enable to constant upgrade and enhancement of certain solutions. Obviously, that increases the size of the markets that we operate in today based on the way we look at them, whether that's ADAS, whether it's battery management systems, whether it's user experience. So to the extent we're creating revenue opportunities for our customers, the size of the market increases and there's an opportunity for us to benefit in that increased market.
John Murphy:
Great. Thank you very much.
Operator:
Our next question will come from Rod Lache with Wolfe Research. Please go ahead.
Rod Lache:
Good morning, everybody.
Kevin Clark:
Hey, Rod.
Rod Lache:
I want to ask first about the numbers. This quarter, you achieved 15% organic growth, that's $625 million. You mentioned, Joe, that you're achieving the 30% conversion. So that would be about 180 year-over-year. I see the $130 million of EBIT growth, and you mentioned manufacturing and productivity was kind of a wash. It sounds like FX and commodities might have been a $50 million drag, but wasn't there some benefit from the pricing that you took in the middle of last year or maybe no? So I'm not seeing it in the growth over market in the quarter.
Joe Massaro:
Yes. It was a slight benefit, Rod, but it's - net price and commodities basically are netting out to what I'd call sort of a slight benefit on the top line. I think to your point, the slight benefit on the top line, they're actually a slight negative on the bottom line so - from an OI perspective. So again, that's what drove - if you really think about, and it was in the prepared comments, the 100 basis point margin impact of FX is in part driven by top line going one way, OI going the other way on the commodity side of things. So I think there's a little bit of mix there. But I think the big piece is, if you look at it, FX - particularly on the RMB and the Mexico peso, total FX impact was about $65 million in the quarter. So as you think about incremental revenue flowing strongly, I mean that - at least in our view, that sort of came out sort of in total where we were expecting. But the incremental volume or the bulk flow-through on any additional volume really got taken up by the FX impact, particularly peso for us, which isn't usually an impact, but it was particularly strong. It strengthened a lot this quarter. A lot of folks don't expect that to continue, but that was certainly a meaningful number in the quarter.
Rod Lache:
Okay. And maybe just to follow up, how should we - how are you thinking about the FX transactional exposure, at least what you've embedded for the year? And just a question for Kevin. You've got obviously, a lot of exposure to some of the growth of your companies in the industry with Tesla being your fifth largest customer and Geely now. And I was hoping you might be able to address this phenomenon of the Chinese starting to export a lot more and whether you think that, that actually is something that could move the needle for Aptiv over time?
Joe Massaro:
Yes, Rod. From an FX perspective, haven't changed our assumptions from the start of the year. So the pesos in 2.50. RMB is a little under 7. Obviously, I think just given the volatility in those markets, for us, we'll, at the midyear point, take a look at where we are and update those assumptions. But those - and they're in the deck with the FX assumptions. They have not changed from the original guide. Kevin?
Kevin Clark:
Yes, I think, Rod, just to add to that, I think in light of - or assuming rates stay where they are effectively as you fall out into the balance of the year. Sequentially, it should be less of a headwind across our business. So it should be a net positive there. Listen, as it relates to our exposure to - you referred to them, some of the growth or OEMs, we've made tremendous progress with players like Tesla. As you all know, we've grown with them across models, across regions. I referenced, Geely, in the L2+ ADAS program that we were awarded that will initially focus on the China market but is intended to be used on vehicles that will be exported outside of China as well. So that is certainly an opportunity. As you look at the major local OEMs in China based on our discussions, they are clearly focused on how do they begin to export vehicles outside of China. I think their general view is they have technologies and they have quality, which is at a level where they can meet kind of consumer standards outside of the China market and provide themselves with additional opportunities for growth. So it certainly is an opportunity. I'm not quite sure how large it is for us at this point in time. But given the progress we've seen in the locals make over the last 3 years, which has been significant, I think, would be a fairly good opportunity.
Rod Lache:
Okay. Just to clarify, Kevin, I know that the locals are like half of your China backlog. What percentage of your business in China is accounted for by the local OEMs?
Kevin Clark:
Today, from a revenue standpoint, I think it's about 40%. Yes, 35% to 40%.
Joe Massaro:
It's growing. If you go back to 2019, Rod, that number, we were 75% global, 25% local. And from a revenue perspective, today, we sit at about 60-40, global, local. And bookings are about 50-50.
Rod Lache:
Thank you.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Adam Jonas with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.
Adam Jonas:
Thanks, everybody. Hey, guys. Hey, Kevin. It really seems like the narrative around supply and demand for EVs has changed pretty markedly this year and from my read, at least in kind of an adverse way. I mean, when you hear Tesla talking about selling vehicles for no profit, and you see the Ford Model losing $60,000 per car in names like Rivian, Lucid and Fisker are really, really struggling to kind of get by here. If Western OEM volumes end being lower than expected, what would the impact be on Aptiv margins medium term?
Kevin Clark:
Yes. Our high-voltage margins mixed out, and if you were to focus on North America and Europe are slightly higher than our overall SPS margins at this point in time. If you think about it, it's engineered components from our connection business, cable management solutions from HellermannTyton, as well as bus parts from Intercable and wire harnesses. So it mixed out, it's slightly higher than our SPS margins. Our two biggest markets from a revenue standpoint today are Europe and China, then followed by North America, I believe, from a revenue standpoint, although they're all relatively close. It's relatively balanced. So I don't know, maybe Joe can take a shot at it...
Joe Massaro:
Yes. North America is about 29% or expected to be about 29% of high-voltage volume, Adam, in the year. You'd call that, to Kevin's point, North America slightly above SPS segment margins on a high-voltage basis.
Adam Jonas:
I appreciate that. And just as a follow-up, going back to Rod's question about the Chinese OEMs. Again, they have a clear mandate from Beijing to accelerate exports into international markets like ASEAN and looks like they're targeting Europe near term as well. How would - I hear you that you're very much, as you've always done, your team thinking of the future and skating to where the puck is going, getting the content where you need to get it. It seems like you recognize that folks like BYD and Geely are here to stay. I'm thinking if there was a surprise, all else equal, of those two names specifically, taken more share out of China, given where you are on those products today, would that represent a positive, negative or neutral mix shift for you?
Kevin Clark:
Yes. BYD or Geely were to grow outside of the China market in a disproportionate way, what impact does that have on margins? Just want to make sure I fully understand. It would be positive.
Adam Jonas:
Thank you.
Kevin Clark:
Thank you.
Operator:
And our next question will come from Itay Michaeli with Citi. Please go ahead.
Itay Michaeli:
Great, thanks. Good morning, everybody. Just two questions for me, maybe for Joe. Can you maybe just help us and just talk about how you expect the cadence of margins for the business throughout the rest of the year. And then secondly, maybe for Kevin, back on the bookings with Q1, I think the last five quarters, you're now running or averaging about $9 billion. Was Q1 another just a lumpy quarter? Or is there potential upside to 2023 bookings relative to your expectations?
Kevin Clark:
Maybe I'll take the first. Joe, the second, if that's okay? Listen, as Joe has always I think said, bookings are lumpy. And I think when you - especially when you factor in some of these Smart Vehicle Architecture programs with OEMs, they are significant programs that go across all vehicle lines over a number of years. So when we're awarded that business, I think you're going to see a disproportionate impact on bookings. Having said that, when you look at the underlying trend about domain consolidation and integration, I think it's fair to expect, Itay, that the amount of our bookings actually go up naturally, just given the nature of the products that we're selling. Hard for me right now to give you an exact dollar amount, but we would expect that trend to continue. We'd say we have a high level of confidence in the $32 billion of bookings that we've communicated for this year. Is there an opportunity to beat that? Yes, there is. But we'll see how the timing as it relates to program awards.
Joe Massaro:
Itay, thanks. I appreciate that question. We have talked about this a lot in the first quarter. I think with one exception, which I'll come to, I think you just think through quarterly cadence of margin, we should be returning to what I'll call sort of that 2018, 2019, our historical cadence, right, of just sort of the natural flow that's in the business. So Q1 will be weaker, will build up over the year. Q4 will be a stronger year and will average to the full year margin. That's historically how the business behaved through 2020. And we - and I realize we're not giving quarterly guidance, but that's how we've talked about margins building up through the year. So I think just on reference point, you can sort of go back to those years, 2019, you've got to watch out a little bit for the strike. But the flow is basically there. I think the one caveat this year that we're obviously managing closely, but it's just a little bit of an unknown still is the supply chain disruption costs and how those hit on a quarterly basis. As we talked about it in February, we have $180 million in the guide, full year COVID supply chain disruption costs. We believe those are probably more weighted to the first half of the year as they roll out in the second half just given the sequential improvement. And those costs were, round number, is $50 million in Q1, which is a $30 million improvement year-over-year. So you got to make an assumption of how the 180 rolled out. But apart from that, I'd sort of go back to how the business would flow sort of pre-2020. And I think we're getting - may not be perfectly on that, but I think that's a good proxy, if that's helpful.
Itay Michaeli:
Yes, that's very helpful. Thank you
Operator:
Our next question will come from Dan Levy with Barclays. Please go ahead.
Dan Levy:
Hi, good morning. Thank you. Joe, I want to start with just a follow-up on Itay's question there. And a bit more specific to ASUX. You just did roughly 4.5% margin. I think you said for the year, it's 8% to 9%. So I think that implies like an exit rate, probably double digits. So is it just the timing of the recoveries that get you that ramp-up over the course of the year? Or is it just some visibility on those supply chain pressures dissipating over the year?
Joe Massaro:
Yes. There's - listen, I think it's a combination, right? There's the natural flow in the business. Q4 is much heavier for ASUX. You get those engineering credits. That's unrelated to COVID, unrelated supply chain disruption. That's my earlier comment on how the business flows. I do think it'd be low double digits in Q4. I think that's a reasonable proxy. So you have the sequential improvement, you have the normal flow of the business and then you're going to have volume growth. That business is going to grow throughout the year. We've got some strong launches coming in, in the second and third quarter.
Dan Levy:
And the visibility on those recoveries, is that just based on historical? Or just you have a good sense with your customers that you'll get those recoveries?
Joe Massaro:
Yes. I mean those are in, right? You got a lot of - remember, we did a lot of it last year. There was obviously some to take care of this quarter. But a lot of it last year and then that rolled in a piece price in the beginning this year. So yes, I would say visibility there is good. We've got confidence there, and it's in the guide.
Dan Levy:
Great. Thanks. And I wanted to follow up on the prior line of questions on the EV pure plays. And I think one of your very large customers, their strategy clearly has been to reduce a tremendous amount of cost to unlock lower price points. So I just want to understand in an environment where - and I presume that's their strategy, but others will follow that strategy as well. In an environment where you have customers that are trying to cut cost out of their system as much as possible to unlock these lower price point, to what extent does that make it a tougher commercial environment for you? Or can you still hold firm on your margins and your offering?
Kevin Clark:
That's actually a perfect environment for us. We benefit from that. So when you think about a full system solution, our ability to integrate and our ability to optimize that integration, the result of that sort of situation and the result of customers thinking that way is we tend to get more content. We tend to get more of our own content, which not only translates to higher revenues, it translates into higher margins. And a great example, I think we've talked about this in the past, we've had a couple of OEMs come to us and asked us to take a look at their vehicle architecture, kind of soup to nuts, both low voltage as well as high-voltage and come up with ideas where we can reduce weight, mass and costs. And there have been a number of situations where we've been able to reduce overall cost by 20% to 30%. And we're able to do that, saving the customer money, while at the same time, enhancing our profitability. So those are situations that are really good for us. And as we evolve into the challenges that our customers are having with software, which we've talked about previously, in terms of that debate about in-sourcing versus outsourcing and the fact that we're seeing - we're having more of our customers come to us to provide solutions. When you think about Wind River, when you think about Wind River Studio, when you think about what we're doing with the overall software stack, those are all things intended to drive flexibility and reduce cost. And we fully understand that we need to enable our customers to achieve their objectives. And a big piece of that is delivering technology at lower cost. So to be candid with you, it might sound a little crazy, but that's the sort of environment that we're actually looking for, and we think we really prosper in.
Dan Levy:
Great. Thank you.
Operator:
The next question comes from Emmanuel Rosner with Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.
Emmanuel Rosner:
Thank you very much. A couple of more questions, if I may, I guess, expected cadence for the rest of the year. First, I guess, on the gross over market, 6 points in the first quarter and then obviously, your normal framework of 8 to 10 for the full year. In terms of what drives this acceleration, is it mostly the timing of your launch?
Joe Massaro:
Yes, launches will strengthen throughout the year, but the 6 points, I think, is more of the sort of the abnormal number there, right? We just - and this happened in Q2 or Q3 last year, too. We just had a couple of customers, particularly in North America, they we're launching, they were accelerating ramp. Those ramps slowed just given some supply chain constraints. So we're - just relative to market, they weren't as strong. So those problems are clearing up. They're getting better in this quarter. So we - it's more of a returning to the framework then something needs to happen to get us to the framework. And we've always said, and I appreciate it's - I appreciate it's a long term guide, and we've historically been well within it, but it's always going to be a little lumpy, right? It's historically been lumpier to the high side with launches, but this is more a specific thing to Q1 than a longer term concern.
Emmanuel Rosner:
And just quickly following up on this, are you expecting these volumes to be made up? Or are you just saying that there's enough sort of growth of the market in the back half - in the rest of the year...
Joe Massaro:
Yes, there's enough - I think if they can make it up, that's going to depend on the other suppliers being able to get the parts. I think the supply is at least returned to where they can hit schedule, so we'll be back. We'll see how much they can make up.
Emmanuel Rosner:
Okay. Thank you. And then the second piece would be on the margin. And I appreciate the comments around cadence and sort of like normal flow of the business. Can you just - maybe just remind us in terms of the margin improvement in the back half, the big pieces of it, right? The cadences of 2019 is extremely helpful. Just interested if there's pieces that you could quantify either in terms of lower disruption costs or sort of like more price recoveries, I guess, just how...
Joe Massaro:
Yes. The net price benefit is really going to be first half. If you think about when that kicked in last year was really not July or August time frame, a little bit in June. So we're sort of seeing that now. That will continue into Q2. And then really when you get to - we've started to see the material manufacturing performance improvement, right? We talked about that needing to offset labor costs and it did offset a little to the positive side actually. So that's going to continue. And then you see volume build through the back half of the year, then I think you have that normal cadence of a strong Q4 as well around engineering credits and those types of things. So - but the net price, the customer recoveries are really a first half just given the timing of those last year when they started to kick in.
Emmanuel Rosner:
Okay. Thank you.
Operator:
The next question comes from Mark Delaney with Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.
Mark Delaney:
Yes. Thank you for taking my question. Good morning. Another one on the cadence and on the revenue side, in particular, if I take the 1Q revenue, you're annualizing to nearly the high end of guidance around $19.3 billion. We spoke about growth over market maybe picking up a bit. We spoke about supply chain starting to ease. So it appears maybe you are tracking towards the high end of guidance on the top line for the year. But if you could maybe help us understand are there any offsets we need to be considering and how to better think about the cadence of revenue throughout the year?
Joe Massaro:
Yes. Listen, I think it sort of goes back - Mark, it goes back to Chris' first comments, right? We - Q1 is off to - it was a good start. I think we're very happy with delivery. Obviously the FX, and as I mentioned, North America. But on balance, it's a quarter that was very much in line with our expectations we feel good about. And we expect Q2 to be the same, and then I think we reassess where we are for the year. I think on the margin side, as I said, there's - we're starting to get back to what feels like to Kevin and I sort of the normal cadence and flow of the business historically with the exception of the 180 million, just when do these disruption costs hit. Ideally, those go away much faster. We saw good improvement in Q1, $80 million in 2022, down to $50 million this year. And again, I think we see how Q2 plays out, and we'll have a better sense of where we are in disruption costs so we continue to see sequential improvement. And then can look at what customers actually do in their detailed production schedules for the back half of the year.
Mark Delaney:
Okay. That's helpful. And my second was on Wind River and good to hear all of the momentum that you're seeing with customers. You did talk about potential lumpiness in Wind River in the prepared remarks. So maybe you could just double-click a little bit on that. I mean certainly aware there's some telecom CapEx weakness and maybe that's what you were speaking to, but anything more on Wind River, especially because it's a high-margin business and maybe we need to be mindful of the cadence within Wind River as we're thinking about the EBIT both for the year. Thanks.
Joe Massaro:
Yes. Yes. So both, as I mentioned, both acquisitions performed in line with expectations. Acquisitions are accretive to the margin for total Aptiv [ph] margin. So it's positive on both the revenue and the OI. My comment around Wind River, just trying to set some expectations ahead of time. It's not necessarily on telecom weakness or any particular weakness in the market. Relative to - that - it's a very important business, but it's a relatively small revenue stream, right? It's about - there'll be over $0.5 billion this year, up from a little less than 450 last year. They tend to have some big deals come in on a quarterly basis. So it's more of a cadence within that business. It's always existed of timing of when some of the larger revenue opportunities get signed up. And much like our bookings, it's not necessarily a straight line quarter-to-quarter-to-quarter. That's all I was cautioning about. So I think full year, they have a very good sense and have historically a very good track record. Quarterly, as a private company, they hadn't historically been managing the business quarterly, if you will, and some of those contracts to be a little lumpy. And I just - we wanted to caution that before the lumpiness appeared versus after. If that makes sense.
Kevin Clark:
Yes. It's really - it's the accounting for the revenues, the nature of the contracting.
Mark Delaney:
Thank you.
Operator:
And our last question will come from Tom Narayan with RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead.
Tom Narayan:
Hi. Thanks, guys. Yes, a quick follow-up on, I think, Rod's question. Just - it sounded like you said that the - Joe, like the FX assumptions based at the end of Q4 and now it's changed in Q1 and that has impacts in Q1. Just curious if FX is at the Q1 level, how does that change your guidance specifically like EBITDA or EBITDA margin? Is it - how would that be impacted if it stays it...
Joe Massaro:
Let's be clear, though, right? We've let the rates in place for guidance. The impact we're talking about is the year-over-year FX, Q1 2022 versus Q1 '23, that's the $65 million. So it's where rates end up at the end of the quarter. So that specifically, that transaction loss, particularly in Mexico and the peso and the RMB is a year-over-year number. And again, our assumptions are there. We haven't changed since the beginning of the year. We've seen some volatility in those FX markets. And again, I think as we get to the midyear, we'll assess macros, vehicle production, FX, commodity prices and look ahead to the next 6 months and see what we think. But the impact is really year-over-year versus - we didn't have a guide out there. So it's really the year-over-year impact I was talking about.
Tom Narayan:
Okay. Thanks for that. And then just the follow-up would be there's a large ADAS provider that this earnings season noted that one of their OEM customers, I think reduced kind of purchase order pretty substantially in China, the specific OEM. Just curious if your specific OEM exposure in China, how would you characterize? I mean, certainly, your guidance suggests a really strong growth over market despite the challenges there. But is there anything noteworthy in terms of your specific Chinese OEM exposure?
Kevin Clark:
Yes. No, our outlook as it relates to China market, our customer base hasn't changed since the beginning of this year when we gave guidance. So we would - we, at least, don't see any significant changes.
Operator:
And with that, that does conclude our question-and-answer session for today. I would now like to hand the call back over to Kevin Clark for any additional or closing remarks.
Kevin Clark:
Thank you. Thank you, everybody, for your time today. Have a great rest of the day.
Operator:
And with that, that does conclude today's call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Good day, and welcome to the Aptiv Q4 2022 Earnings Call. Today's conference is being recorded. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Jessica Kourakos, Vice President of Investor Relations and ESG. Please, go ahead.
Jessica Kourakos:
Thank you, Lynnette. Good morning and thank you for joining Aptiv's fourth quarter 2022 earnings conference call. The press release and related tables, along with the slide presentation, can be found on the Investor Relations portion of our website at aptiv.com. Today's review of our financials exclude amortization, restructuring and other special items and we'll address the continuing operations of Aptiv. The reconciliations between GAAP and non-GAAP measures for our Q4 financials as well as our full year 2022 outlook are included at the back of the slide presentation and the earnings press release. During today's call, we will be providing certain forward-looking information, which reflects Aptiv's current view of future financial performance, and may be materially different for reasons that we cite in our Form 10-K and other SEC filings, including uncertainties posed by the COVID-19 pandemic, the ongoing supply chain disruptions and the conflict between Ukraine and Russia. Joining us today will be Kevin Clark, Aptiv's Chairman and CEO; and Joe Massaro, CFO and Senior Vice President of Business Operations. Kevin will provide a strategic update on the business, and Joe will cover the financial results in more detail before we open the call to Q&A. With that, I'd like to turn the call over to Kevin Clark.
Kevin Clark:
Thanks, Jessica, and thanks, everyone, for joining us this morning. Let's begin on slide three. 2022 was another year with record new business bookings and strong growth over market, driven by our industry-leading portfolio of advanced technologies, as well as our continued flows execution that's kept our customers connected in this challenging environment. Highlights for 2022 included $32 billion of new business bookings, driven by significant active safety, high-voltage and smart vehicle architecture awards. $17.5 billion of revenues, representing 15 points of growth over vehicle production during the quarter, bringing our full year growth over market to 11 points. Operating income and earnings per share for the full year of just under $1.6 billion and $3.41, respectively, reflected the benefit of strong revenue growth and customer recoveries, partially offset by costs related to COVID and ongoing supply chain disruptions, which Joe will cover in greater detail a little later. We also enhanced our portfolio of safe, green and connected technologies with the additions of Wind River and Intercable Automotive, both of which closed during the fourth quarter. I'll expand on these, as well as our enhancements to our operating model on the next slide. As the industry transitions to fully electrified software-defined vehicles, we continue to enhance both our operating model and industry-leading portfolio to further strengthen our capabilities to solve our customers' toughest challenges. As legacy functional and domain-based architectures are increasingly replaced by approaches aligned after smart vehicle architecture, it impacts both the way we design and sell our solutions. This means further strengthening our One Aptiv account-based model, positioning us to engage earlier in the development process and, therefore, more effectively design, specify and deliver optimized solutions across our portfolio, resulting in stronger customer relationships and greater ability to capture value from all our full system solutions. We further enhanced our regional operating model, by increasing local capabilities and empowering those closest to the customer to address their needs quickly and efficiently. Additionally, the continued rollout of our Net Promoter System has resulted in actionable insights to improve our efficiency, our resiliency and service levels, thereby increasing customer intimacy. Lastly, proactive initiatives and risk mitigation actions related to our supply chain have contributed to our ability to keep customers connected through significant disruptions, giving them confidence in our ability to execute on current and future platforms. At the same time, we recognize that the software defined electrified vehicles consumers are demanding will require innovative new solutions and we're investing organically and inorganically to position ourselves for that future. Our acquisition of Wind River significantly strengthens our capabilities in software with an industry-first cloud data software platform that speeds development, streamlines deployment and enables full life cycle management for the software-defined vehicle, significantly reducing cost and time to market for our customers while also unlocking new business models. The acquisition of Intercable Automotive enhances our portfolio of high-voltage busbar and interconnect technologies and provides near-term synergies as we expand Intercable's manufacturing capacity in North America and in China. Lastly, we're also investing organically in solutions that further expand our portfolio of industry-leading high-voltage electrification solutions such as integrated power electronics and battery management systems. To help fund these initiatives, we've implemented structural cost reductions that will save roughly $100 million in annual expense, which will take full effect throughout 2023. These actions further improve the efficiency of our underlying cost structure while allowing us to make investments that better position Aptiv for long-term outperformance. As shown on Slide 5, nowhere is the strength of our track record and portfolio more evident than in our new business bookings performance. 2022 bookings reached a record $32 billion, an increase of over 3% from last year's record of $24 billion. advanced safety and user experience bookings totaled a record $12 billion, driven by $4.2 billion of customer awards for our smart vehicle architecture solutions across three different OEMs, including central vehicle controller and Power Data Center Bookings with the Volkswagen Group, bringing cumulative customer awards for SBA products since our launch to over $5 billion with five different OEMs. Active safety bookings of $5.2 billion, representing a combination of next-gen hardware and perception software building blocks as well as full system turnkey awards, including an award from a large European-based global OEM as well as the Chinese OEM BYD, which represents the seventh customer to select Aptiv scalable platform to efficiently support a wide range of advanced safety features. The strength of our portfolio of active safety solutions is reflected in the $20 billion of cumulative bookings since 2018. Signal Power Solutions new business bookings reached a record $20 billion for the year, the result of strong growth in low voltage vehicle architecture, including a $2 billion like commercial vehicle booking with a major North American OEM in the fourth quarter and continued strong bookings in adjacent markets. A record $4.2 billion of high-voltage electrification bookings, up from roughly $2 billion just a few years ago, including awards from several North American, European and China-based OEMs, representing both traditional and new mobility providers across our electrical architecture and engineered components product lines, bringing cumulative high-voltage customer awards to $14 billion since 2018. Our industry-leading portfolio, combined with our unparalleled ability to execute highly complex programs, even in today's challenging environment positions us to continue to win new business, resulting in clear line of sight to roughly $32 billion of business awards during 2023. Moving to Slide 6 to review the segment highlights. Beginning with the Advanced Safety & User Experience segment. This past year, we became the first technology provider to successfully launch a full stack hands-free Level 2+ ADAS system with a European-based global OEM. This is a great example of our full system capabilities applied to active safety as well as our flexible business model and open platform approach, which allows OEMs to leverage their own innovations, as well as those from Aptiv and other third parties to deliver a unique, high-performing driving experience. We're also deeply engaged with several customers regarding Wind River's cloud-native software platform, which we're confident will lead to commercial awards over the course of 2023. Turning to Signal & Power Solutions segment. We continue to be perfectly positioned with an industry-leading portfolio of electrification solutions that span multi-voltage distribution, connection and cable management. Reflecting the accelerating demand for battery electric vehicles, the $4.2 billion of high-voltage new business bookings I referenced on the prior slide, accounted for over 20% of the segment's total bookings, and high-voltage revenues increased 33% over the prior year, 28 points over vehicle production. In addition, our new offerings in power electronics and battery management systems are gaining traction as demonstrated by a significant integrated power electronics and BMS award from a North American-based global OEM, where a solution will be used across all their bet platforms beginning in 2025. And the pipeline of customers evaluating the deployment of a similar solution is growing. Our customers recognize our track record of flawless execution, which is a driver behind the customer service, quality and supply chain awards we received. The cost recoveries we negotiated and the record level of new business bookings we've been awarded. Our full system edge-to-cloud vehicle architecture solutions have enabled us to pursue high-growth margin accretive opportunities that position us to continue to deliver outsized revenue growth and margin expansion for years to come. Moving to Slide 7. At this year's CES event in Las Vegas, we brought the software-defined vehicle to life, showcasing Aptiv's unique full stack capabilities. We debut Wind River software platform, fully integrated with a vehicle powered by SBA. Designed vehicle demonstration of the industry's first end-to-end cloud-native DevOps tool chain and vehicle software platform, showed how these solutions improve development speed, quality and efficiency, unlock new business models and enable software functionality to evolve and improve over the life cycle of the vehicle. We also showcased our turnkey Gen 6 ADAS platform, including differentiating KPIs and a public road demonstration. Our radar-centric solution, which is vision agnostic, utilizes artificial intelligence and machine learning to increase the availability, robustness and efficiency of the perception system, resulting in a solution that can be up to 65% more energy efficient, and 25% more cost effective than equivalent vision-centric solutions. Lastly, we continue to highlight the commercial readiness of our Smart Vehicle Architecture solution. First, by deeply integrating it into a production vehicle, which enabled us to demonstrate a wide range of in-cabin user experience features as well as the fusion of our interior and exterior sensing, resulting in greater safety, comfort and convenience for passengers. And second, through our SVA demonstrator, which enabled guests to see firsthand how these advanced architectures reduce complexity, weight and mass, while also showcasing our latest high-voltage electrification solutions. With over 400 customers, 150 partners and 75 suppliers visiting the Aptiv CES pavilion this year, we reinforced our growing pipeline of commercial opportunities and set the stage for the deeper, more tailored engagements, which I referenced earlier. Moving to slide eight. Before I turn the call over to Joe, I wanted to touch on our outlook for 2023, which Joe will cover in more detail. Building on the foundation from 2022, we expect a very strong year for new business bookings, revenue growth over market and margin expansion. Our robust business model and portfolio of advanced technologies are resulting in sustainable value creation. We continue to widen our competitive moat with investments in advanced technologies and capabilities that drive our operational excellence. This has enabled us to demonstrate strong outperformance even in a weak production environment, as demonstrated by our 2023 outlook, where we continue to expect 8 to 10 points of growth over vehicle production, and 140 basis points of operating margin expansion and strong cash flow growth. With that, I'll now turn the call over to Joe to go through the numbers in more detail.
Joe Massaro:
Thanks, Kevin. Good morning, everyone. Starting with a recap of the fourth quarter on slide nine. As highlighted earlier, the business drove strong growth in the quarter, with revenues of $4.6 billion, up 19% over prior year and representing 15 points of growth above underlying vehicle production. The outgrowth was across both segments, despite continued semiconductor supply chain constraints and COVID disruptions in China that negatively impacted customer production. Adjusted EBITDA and operating income were $674 million and $523 million, respectively. OI margins expanded 380 basis points versus prior year, reflecting strong flow-through on incremental volumes, the benefit of customer recoveries of direct material cost increases and cost reduction actions taken earlier in 2022. Supply chain disruption costs were favorable by approximately $25 million from the prior year, and foreign exchange was negative in the quarter, reflecting approximately 20 basis points of headwind. EPS in the quarter was $1.27, an increase of 87% from the prior year, driven by overall earnings growth and interest income from higher cash balances maintained prior to the closing of Wind River, partially offset by interest expense and tax expense on higher earnings. The notional EPS impact was a loss of $0.29, an $0.08 increase over last year. Lastly, operating cash flow totaled $933 million and capital expenditures were $178 million for the quarter. Looking at the fourth quarter revenues in more detail on slide 10. Our growth was broad-based across all regions, despite the disruptions in China and continued supply chain constraints. Price downs net cost recoveries and commodities was favorable by approximately $100 million. Foreign exchange negatively impacted revenue by approximately $300 million in the quarter and late quarter shutdowns in China was a negative $60 million. From a regional perspective, North American revenues were up 21%, or 13% above market, driven by our active safety and high-voltage product lines. In Europe, which continues to be impacted by acute supply chain constraints and macro concerns, adjusted growth was 22%, driven by strength in both segments. And in China, revenues were up 8% or 14 points over market. Moving to the segments on the next slide. Advanced Safety and User Experience revenues rose 15% in the quarter or 11 points of growth over underlying vehicle production. Segment adjusted operating income was $77 million, up over 100% year-over-year, reflecting strong flow-through on incremental volumes as well as favorable net price and recoveries, partially offset by the negative impact of foreign exchange in the quarter. Signal and Power revenues rose 20% in the period or 16 points above market. Segment operating income improved by 64%, driven by strong flow-through on incremental volumes, favorable net price recoveries and commodities and lower supply chain disruption costs that partially offset the negative FX impact. Turning now to Slide 12 and our expectations for global vehicle production in 2023. Based on customer schedules, we are forecasting a decrease of 1% for the year reflecting approximately 85 million units of global production. Regionally, we expect North America flat at approximately 15 million units; Europe, down 2% or approximately 16 million units; and China flat at approximately 27 million units. As we discussed during the fourth quarter of last year, we remain cautious about the impact of macroeconomic considerations, particularly in Europe as well as the impact of customer supply chain disruptions, including continued constraints of certain semiconductors. Although the overall supply of semiconductors has improved sequentially, we continue to see acute constraints, particularly in Europe and North America that impact overall customer production levels. Moving to Slide 13, you'll find our 2023 full year outlook, which now includes Wind River and Intercable Automotive. We expect revenue in the range of $18.7 billion to $19.3 billion, up 8% at the midpoint compared to 2022 with 9 points of growth over market. Note that our growth over market excludes the impact of acquisitions. As noted previously, we remain confident in our multiyear growth over market target of 8% to 10%, supported by continued success in our key product lines and high demand for our portfolio of advanced technologies. EBITDA and operating income are expected to be approximately $2.7 billion and $2 billion at the midpoint, reflecting strong flow-through on volume growth, continued margin expansion in high-growth product lines and lower COVID supply chain disruption costs. Adjusted earnings per share, excluding amortization is estimated to be $4.25. EPS growth of 25% is driven by strong earnings growth, partially offset by an increase in the expected tax rate of 14.5% and higher net interest expense. The loss related to Motional of $310 million, represents a $0.07 increase over last year. We expect 2023 operating cash flows of $1.9 billion reflecting the higher earnings as well as improved working capital during the year. Capital expenditures are expected to be approximately 5% of revenues or $950 million for the year. With respect to capital deployment in 2023, we will continue to maintain a well-balanced approach to capital allocation as we continue to prioritize organic investments in the business to support our portfolio of advanced technologies and record new business awards. Execute our M&A strategy and focus on transactions that enhance our scalability across both the brain and nervous system of the vehicle, accelerate our speed to market with relevant technologies and access new markets. And while we will continue to maintain our current financial policy, as it relates to our balance sheet leverage profile to the extent we can take advantage of market disconnects, we will be opportunistic in our share buybacks, returning cash to our shareholders. To that end, our 2023 guidance assumes we offset the impact of stock compensation dilution in 2023 via share repurchase, a practice we had in place prior to 2020. On slide 14, we provide a bridge of 2023 revenue and operating income guidance as compared to 2022. Starting with revenue. Our growth over market, combined with the decrease in global vehicle production, resulted in a net contribution to revenues of over $1 billion. The full year benefit of direct material cost recoveries will effectively offset changes in index commodity and price downs. FX is estimated at a negative $300 million. And lastly, we expect Wind River and Intercable to contribute approximately $700 million for the year. Turning to adjusted operating income. We expect margin expansion of 110 basis points before the benefit of acquisitions, driven by continued strong flow-through on incremental volumes of approximately 30% and the negative impact of price downs, commodities and incremental inflation are partially offset by customer cost recoveries and higher direct labor and other indirect costs are more than offset by increased operating performance, including the benefit of cost saving actions, improved manufacturing performance, as well as a reduction in supply chain disruption costs, which are estimated to be $180 million in 2023. The addition of Wind River and Intercable will increase 2023 operating income to $2 billion, or 10.5%, reflecting margin expansion of 140 basis points and incremental margins of over 27% for the year. With that, I'd like to hand the call back to Kevin for his closing remarks. <> Thanks, Joe. I'll wrap up on slide 15 before opening the line up for questions. As the management team reflects on 2022, it's clear that we strengthened our competitive moat and accelerated our commercial momentum, supported by a highly differentiated portfolio of safe, green and connected technologies. Together with our strong track record of operating execution, Aptiv has never been better positioned to provide our customers with full system solutions that advance the industry's vision of the software-defined vehicle. As a reminder, we're hosting our 2023 Investor Day on February 14 in Boston, where we'll provide our view on the industry and how we plan to usher in the next phase of our business strategy. In closing, I'm proud of what the Aptiv team accomplished during 2022 and have never been more excited about what we will deliver in the years ahead. As you'll see in here on February 14, the best is yet to come. Operator, let's now open the line up for questions.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] And we'll take your first question from Rod Lache.
Kevin Clark:
Good morning, Rod.
Rod Lache:
Yes. So, I guess my first question is on your bridge for 2023, you have $400 million of additional labor depreciation economics price. You offset that with $400 million of performance and it was either $135 million or $180 million of lower disruption costs. I'm just wondering about -- just in light of the still inflationary environment that we're seeing pricing is still negative. And at what point do you think you start to kind of get ahead of this and recover some of these disruption costs or headwinds.
Joe Massaro :
Well, Rod, it's Joe. I'll start. I mean I think we have gotten ahead of it, to be honest with you. I mean, our business equation is working, right? Performance is offsetting labor inflation and the pricing and the material inflation, you see in that $100 million. We've vetted out from a top line perspective, customer recoveries this year, which are obviously benefiting from a full year effect or effectively offsetting price downs on the top line. So I think our view, and Kevin can jump in. I think our view is that the team has done a great job of pushing direct material costs through. And we've started to get performance up, including working hard to get the supply chain disruption costs out of the P&L.
Rod Lache:
Yes, I guess, to just maybe clarify my question, Joe. Like I think that you had talked about $295 million of disruption that you'd start to recover over six quarters. And when I say ahead of it, in my mind, at least that means the positives are greater than the negatives. It looks like they're sort of matching at least when optically, when you look at the bridge?
Joe Massaro :
Certainly offsetting. Yes, we ended 2022 with about $330 million of supply chain disruption costs. We've taken that down to $180 million in the outlook. So we're still assuming $180 million of disruption costs. It continues to be a difficult operating environment for certain customers, and we're still seeing some disruptions, obviously, China in Q4, December, in particular, was heavily disrupted with COVID. So I think we continue to work through it. I think you're right. We had always talked about sort of four to six quarters. So we've got some to continue to work through, but feel like we've made a pretty big step here in 2023.
Kevin Clark:
Yes. Maybe if I can add on, I think it's a great question. I think one of the challenges when you talk about getting full ahead of it, you need to have better predictability of what you're getting ahead of. I think Joe's point on the fourth quarter of 2022 in December, specifically to give you an example, roughly 90% of our employee base in China was suffering for COVID. That's tough to predict. Yet at the same time, we were able to keep our factories running and keep our customers connected, which has been our ultimate objective, right? So operating in a less efficient way and being somewhat reactive in an environment where we can't always predict what's going to happen from a supply chain standpoint or COVID stand.
Rod Lache:
Thanks for that. And just secondly, when you announced the closing of the Wind River deal, in your release, you talked about some recurring operating expenses and costs that led to changes in the terms. I was hoping you can maybe talk a little bit about what you meant by that? And what were the implications financially going forward?
Kevin Clark:
Yes. I think the net results for Wind River from a revenue growth standpoint, a margin standpoint, accretion dilution standpoint remain largely unchanged. We're not going to get into all the specifics, but operationally, there were some changes that we needed to make. And in light of that, we are in a position to renegotiate the transaction.
Joe Massaro:
Yes. Well, the only thing and it's a nuance, but I think it's important, particularly as it relates to the magnitude of the costs, the price reduction we said was in part due. So it's not a direct correlation between sort of the increase in expenses and the amount of the reduction. So to Kevin's point, it gave us an opportunity to talk to the sellers about pricing we did, but the deal remains accretive in this year. And again, as we said in our press release, it's no changes in sort of the strategic outlook or our view on the long-term – long-term opportunities Wind River.
Rod Lache:
Thank you.
Operator:
We'll hear next from Adam Jonas from Morgan Stanley.
Joe Massaro:
Hi, good morning, Adam.
Adam Jonas:
Hi. Just wonder – I want to follow-up on Rod's question about production disruption because the guide for down 1% does seem -- it seems surprising to some people, given if you look at like the PMI shipping index back to pre-COVID levels in terms of implying logistics costs and shipping timing more back to normal chip companies are taking down supply because they've seen that kind of just in case channel buildup is kind of running its course. And so you are highlighting a couple of companies, and I respect that there's still some choppiness, but it seems like you're implying that production disruption in 2023 gets worse. I mean, you're implying net headwinds, right? So you're implying it gets worse than in 2022. Help me understand that because that's a pretty weak comp, pretty [indiscernible] comp in terms of how bad things were last year.
Kevin Clark:
Yes. Adam, listen, as we've talked about in the past, when we provide our guidance and build our forecast, it's off customer schedules. And when you look at the nature of our business, especially our SPS business, we're on one in every 3, 3, 3.5 vehicles globally. So we get a very good view to the underlying market. We also, given the nature of our ASUX business get a very good view to what's going on from an overall semiconductor availability and supply chain standpoint. And I think when you look at the semiconductor challenges as they've evolved from 2021 to 2022, then 2022 to 2023, it's really much more focused on rather than a general supply constraint standpoint, specific suppliers who are causing constraints. And we expect that to continue into 2023. It certainly was the case in 2022. And those two factors are effectively, they're impacting our overall outlook for the full year, which again, as Joe said in the past, is based on the customer schedules that we received.
Adam Jonas:
All right. Appreciate that. And just a follow-up. Imitation is the ultimate form of flattery. Qualcomm wants in on software defined and kind of the kinds of products you're doing in safe and connected. Mobileye wants to compete with you. I seem to recall you used to quote a 70% type win rate in ADAS and ASUS broadly. I think that sounds familiar, right. I always felt that was a bit too high, kind of a high watermark, but how has that trended in recent quarters now that you're seeing the competition may be creeping in on the forward X?
Kevin Clark:
Yes. I think it depends on your baseline and what comparison you're trying to make, whether it's a full system solution, a platform solution or it's a unique to a perception system, as an example, a radar solution. Obviously, ADAS penetration has accelerated and continued to increase over the last several years. I haven't seen or we haven't done the math on the pursuit relative to win. I'd say, it's still relatively high on a platform basis. I would say we're very focused on investing our efforts in those areas where we have a high likelihood of winning. So based on that sort of approach to pursuing ADAS platforms, I would say, it would continue to be relatively high. I'm not sure if it's quite at 70%. But we still continue to have a very strong position. And again, it's reflected in our bookings in 2022, our outlook in bookings for 2023 and our revenue growth relative to market. And I mentioned in my comments, the next-gen Gen 6 ADAS platform, which we'll launch in 2025 will be available for SOPs in 2025. We've already had one customer award. It's an open system. It provides -- it's modularized. It provides a lot of flexibility for ourselves, as well as for our OEM customers. And importantly, it's very cost effective. So we believe we're going to continue to see significant demand.
Adam Jonas:
Thanks, Kevin. See you guys on Valentine's Day. I'll bring the chocolate.
Kevin Clark:
We’ll see you.
Joe Massaro:
See you.
Operator:
We'll hear next from John Murphy from Bank of America.
John Murphy:
Good morning, guys. There's been a lot of price action recently by some of your customers on EVs that are probably going to drive significantly higher volume relative to initial expectations. I'm just curious how you think about that and what kind of opportunity there might be here in 2023.
Kevin Clark:
Well, listen, we've been talking about high-voltage electrification and what we've been doing from a portfolio standpoint, bookings continue to be strong, right? Obviously, we had another year of record bookings, and it wouldn't surprise us if we had 2023 even stronger bookings from a high-voltage electrification standpoint. So, we'll see, we're optimistic. Having said that, as we've said in the past, we're very, very focused on pursuing opportunities with those OEMs who have battery electric vehicle platforms that they're taking globally, that we have a high confidence level that they're going to meet their schedules and effectively generate significant revenues over a platform, which ends up a better financial proposition for ourselves and obviously, lower risk.
Joe Massaro:
Yes. John, it's Joe. I'll just add. We've talked a lot about being north of a 30% growth rate in high voltage. 2023 is as well north of 30%, based on the customer schedules we're seeing today and, obviously, got additional opportunities as we add in the Intercable portfolio. So continue to see a very strong schedules today to extent the price actions, sort of increase the mix or increase the take rates on that technology, I think, we'll be very well positioned to take advantage of it.
John Murphy:
Got you. Okay. I mean, if you look at stuff like the Model 3 and the Y, I mean, it's kind of the here and now. I mean given the price cuts, I mean, those guys might be doing another 500,000 units relative to expectations. I mean are you thinking that's possible, and that's in your numbers at this point. And the action by the Chinese manufacturers well. I mean it's a real heavy stuff here. I mean we're not talking about like three to five years on backlogs. We're talking about like hundreds of thousands, I mean, if not millions more EVs this year than expected?
Kevin Clark:
Yes. I think as you heard me say and Joe say in the past, our forecast is based on customer schedules. So to the extent those schedules go up, we'll benefit from a revenue standpoint, but when we pursue business, when we put initial capacity into the ground, obviously, there's some flexibility, it's based on what we see from a customer standpoint, customer schedule standpoint. And again, so if we see a big uptick in demand for players like Tesla and others, our volume will scale with them.
Joe Massaro:
And to date, John, those actions have happened in the last couple of weeks, we have not seen big schedule moves yet. Not saying they won't happen, but haven't seen material changes at this point.
John Murphy:
And then just one quick follow-up on the bridge. I mean on the recoveries, I mean, it does seem like some of the automakers have almost a little bit remorse that recoveries were a little bit high last year, whether it be for commercial sentiments around volatility on schedules or raws. I mean, what is your kind of expectation there in these customer discussions this year? Do you expect them to be a little bit tougher. I mean they were -- I wouldn't call them generous last year, but they were more realistic last year than I have been in decades. Do you think they're going to be a little bit tougher this year and there might be some reversal there? I mean what are those discussions like at the moment?
Kevin Clark:
John, as you said, they're always tough. It's an industry with a tough pricing environment all the time. So those conversations are -- they're never easy. And what we've done in the past and what we are really focused on continuing to do is to bring value to our customers, one by keeping them connected; and then two, providing them with solutions that solve their toughest challenges that are cost-effective solutions. And to the extent you're able to do both of those, I would say those conversations are less difficult, but they're never not difficult. And our outlook -- the team did a great job. Joe mentioned, the team did an outstanding job in 2022, both having those discussions and negotiating those – those price increases and at the same time, delivering record bookings. And that's a process we'll continue to go through in 2023.
John Murphy:
Great. Thank you very much, guys.
Joe Massaro:
Thanks, John.
Operator:
Emmanuel Rosner from Deutsche Bank. Your line is open.
Emmanuel Rosner:
Thank you very much. Good morning.
Joe Massaro:
Hi, Emmanuel.
Emmanuel Rosner:
A couple of questions on margins, if I can. First one for the quarter. I think the margins were quite a bit softer than maybe we had anticipated, especially of very solid revenue outcome for the quarter. Can you please go back over some of the factors of this? I obviously heard you speak about COVID disruption in China, anything else? And specifically within us and U.S., it seems to be quite pronounced.
Joe Massaro:
Yes, Emmanuel, it's Joe. You're right. I mean we continue to deliver on the top line, and I think this speaks to sort of a little bit around Rod's question. It just continues to be a very disruptive environment, right? So we're working through China, $20-plus million of impacts at the very near end of the quarter from both customer shutdowns as well as just us. As Kevin mentioned, we had 90% of our staff of 30,000 people come down with COVID in the fourth quarter. So it was a very disruptive production environment. We saw some of that in the US as well, as customers wrestle through the supply chain challenges, and we still got a lot of the stop-start production. So that, combined with sort of the FX impact call that, I think you mentioned 20 basis points, call that about $40 million in the quarter. And, again, some of those disruptions fall heavily into ASUX. So I think to some extent, it's more than the same. I think what you saw us be able to do this year, which, to some extent, compounds the disruption cost perspective, we were able to come back, run over time, run the businesses hard and push the revenue out at the end of the day, or most of the revenue out at the end of the day. But it's just an inefficient operating environment. And that's as part of the guide, again, north of $300 million of disruption costs for 2022. We left about -- we certainly don't think it will be as bad next year, right? We're hoping for sequential improvement. We're seeing sequential improvement. But we did leave $180 million of COVID and disruption costs in the P&L for 2023, just to give ourselves some room to continue to deal with this.
Emmanuel Rosner:
Okay. That's helpful color. And then, I guess, as a follow-up, I think one of the ways you, I think, encourage us to look at it, I guess, this upcoming year was, maybe, compare the performance versus the second half of 2022 to the extent that some of the price recoveries and commercial agreement you had with customers who are benefiting you more in the second half of 2022. I guess, what do you feel is sort of like a good clean base in terms of second half margin, for which to build off, as we try to understand your 2023 guidance? And what would sort of like the puts and takes versus that.
Joe Massaro:
Yes. I think that's a good question, and we've spent time looking at that. I think the way to think about it, we talked about originally 10% to 10.5%, and then with some of the FX, 9.5% to 10%. So we think about probably 10 as a good jumping off point. I think what you see with -- you can -- and I think we've sort of captured it, quite honestly, within the range of the guide, right? You can sort of -- if you look at some of the benefits of pricing, if you look at the reduction in the COVID supply chain cost, you can get up to sort of that, call that, that 10.7%, 10.8% level. You then work down some of the FX and some of the volume changes, which is really how we sort of think about that sort of mid-10s, that 10.5%. I think we're sort of there. I think 10 sort of ended at the right jumping off point, and we sort of built back from there. And I think we have it covered generally speaking, within the guide.
Emmanuel Rosner:
Okay. Thank you, very much.
Joe Massaro:
Yes. Thanks.
Operator:
We'll hear next from Itay Michaeli from Citi.
Itay Michaeli:
Great. Thanks. Good morning, everyone. Just two questions for me. One, Joe, I was hoping you could share our expectations for margin cadence throughout the year. And secondly, on active safety. Maybe talk about what you're expecting this year for both top line growth, as well as if you talk about booking expectations after a very strong 2022.
Joe Massaro:
Yes. Let me start with bookings. I'll work my way down. As Kevin mentioned, we think -- it was in Kevin's presentation, we see line of sight to, call it, another $32 million -- $32 billion of bookings in 2023. I would say mix should be generally consistent with 2022. They always can be a little lumpy, but continue to expect growth in SVA and active safety, obviously, in high voltage. But I think that profile, the sort of the current profile is probably a pretty good proxy. Again, bookings are lumpy. They always have been. But that, I think, is probably the best proxy, and we did want to provide a target, obviously, for next year, which is something new, but we've got a lot of confidence in what we're seeing. From a segment perspective, if you want to talk sort of growth or growth over market, full year, I'd have ASUX at around 12% growth over market full year. SPS at about 8% growth over market full year. And then I'll give you -- I'm not going to go quarter-by-quarter, obviously, on the margin cadence. But if you think about sort of full year margins by segment -- and again, we got to work through the disruption costs and some of the FX we've talked about. But I would think about SPS in that 11% to 12% range, and ASUX in that 8% to 9% range, full year OI margin.
Itay Michaeli:
Terrific. That’s all. Very helpful. Thanks so much.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] We'll move next to Mark Delaney from Goldman Sachs.
Mark Delaney:
Yes, good morning. Thank you for taking the questions. First, on margins to the extent the stop start schedule volatility and the input cost inflation environment were to moderate. Do you think Aptiv could get back into that historical target of 12% to 14% type EBIT margins, or given how pricing discussions with customers have evolved in the last few years with more things now on pass-throughs. Do you think some of those lower costs may actually get passed out to the OEMs.
Kevin Clark:
Listen, I think if the disruptions and the significant material inflation that's over the last couple of years goes away, we definitely get back to what our historical margin trajectory was. And then when you overlay what we've done from a portfolio standpoint, and where we sit, whether that's mix of more high-voltage electrification, more advanced ADAS solutions, the benefits of Wind River and Intercable actually have the ability to go above that. So it's a combination of both.
Mark Delaney:
That's helpful. Thank you. My second question was on Wind River. You spoke a bit on this already in the prepared remarks, but could you elaborate more specifically on what Aptiv will do this year to help Wind River have improved customer dialogue with the automotive types of companies, in particular, given all of Aptiv's expertise and relationships with that industry. Thanks.
Kevin Clark:
Sure. So in reality, going back, we signed a commercial agreement with Wind River over a year ago well and over a year ago. And in reality, our teams have been working closely together, both in terms of developing the final product for automotive applications as well as in commercial discussions. I'd say the traction we've hit over the last quarter or so has hit a significant level at this point in time. So a number of introductions across the various regions. I think as I mentioned in my prepared comments, there's a deep level of engagement with several OEMs in every region at this point in time. And we're very optimistic, and I'm very confident that you'll see meaningful announcements in 2023 with respect to Wind River's penetration of the automotive space.
Mark Delaney:
Thank you.
Operator:
We'll move next to Chris McNally from Evercore.
Chris McNally:
Thanks so much, team. Basically, follow-ups to what's been already asked. On the ADAS wins, $20 billion, could you talk about just the diversification of some of the Tier 2s? I think historically, you've been a majority installer of one perception compute system. But obviously, there's various out there. $20 billion is such a big number. It seems like you're probably winning business with multiple computer perception providers. I just want to confirm that.
Kevin Clark:
Yes. Chris, just to be clear, our ADAS business, I put into kind of two buckets. One bucket is a platform solution, which to-date has traditionally been with the Mobileye vision solution. Then there's another bucket where our perception system -- perception systems are integrated into an ADAS solution. And in those particular cases, it could be a variety of vision providers and in fact, actually is. So it's a real mix. The Gen 6 ADAS platform is a platform that we've developed -- first, we've developed to be vision agnostic. So OEMs have the ability to select what vision provider they would like to utilize for the overall platform.
Chris McNally:
Yes. No, that's great. Is it fair to put the bucket one versus bucket two is sort of 70-30?
Kevin Clark:
No, I would say, it's probably a little bit closer to 50-50. I'd say, it's 50-50. If you go back four years ago, we had roughly 14 ADAS customers. Today, we have 21 ADAS customers, and that's a mix of growth in that platform solution, as well as providing a portion of the overall ADAS solution to OEMs.
Chris McNally:
Okay. That's super helpful. And then, just on the production, question for Joe, and this is going to be a little bit of a nit pick. Just can you remind us how you guide global production? Is it a weighted average by your customers, by your revenue? One of the reasons, obviously, minus 1% looks maybe low to what we all think, but when I look at also 2022, you called production 4%. We look at a global average of 6% or weighted average of 5%. So I just wanted to sort of understand, if we get a 3% or 4% global production, am I able to flow through a full 4%, 5% type of revenue upside?
Joe Massaro:
Yes. It's weighted towards our production. That basically means for us, Chris, high level, taking out Japan production basically and weighting it towards the markets where we're strong. We obviously don't do a lot on for Japanese OEs in Japan. So that -- and call that 20-plus million units, right, that we sort of weight away from that. And that's the same -- we've been calculating that the same way for -- since the IPO for 11 years now. Very consistent.
Chris McNally:
Yes No, that's very helpful. And I think that weighted number obviously is for most western suppliers who we don't have, the Japanese customers in the same way. Okay. Thanks so much, team. Appreciate it.
Joe Massaro:
Thanks, Chris.
Operator:
We'll hear next from David Kelley from Jefferies.
David Kelley:
Hi. Good morning, guys. Also, a couple of follow-ups from my end and maybe starting with kind of the semiconductor discussion and impact on AS and UX. Curious if you're seeing any signs of plateauing pricing there or even potentially to take back some price from your suppliers. And obviously, timing is difficult to predict. But given your traction and value-add with customers, is there maybe an emerging opportunity where you could see some sticky pass-throughs for AS & UX as your own pricing starts to come down?
Kevin Clark:
Yes. David, that's a great question. I'd say with respect to the level of bookings we were awarded in 2022, we've been put in the position to have discussions about no price increases and in some situations, that's been effective. I'd say we're not at a point though where we're actually seeing year-over-year productivity or lower price increases from the semiconductor players. We'll see how that plays out as based on volume outlook for automotive and the other places that those players play. But at this point in time, we're not seeing it, and it's not in our numbers.
David Kelley:
Okay. Got it. And a quick follow-up on S&P. The product line margin expansion, you referenced, I think you mentioned kind of in high-growth areas. So a, can you confirm that that's high voltage or maybe it's kind of non-autos or CVs, or maybe just give us a bit more color on some of the specific product lines where you're seeing some nice movement.
Joe Massaro:
Yes, I would sort of characterize, David, the margin profile in that business overall is very strong. But high voltage, the adjacent market, particularly commercial vehicle accretive. But also, we're very strong. If you think about engineered components, right, sort of the connect the interconnect type business. That business just has traditionally a very strong margin profile and – and certainly scales well with volume and is accretive with additional volume. So it's really a -- it's a pretty balanced portfolio in that business.
David Kelley:
Okay. Got it. Thanks, guys.
Joe Massaro:
Thanks, David.
Jessica Kourakos:
Operator?
Operator:
At this time, we have time for one more question. We'll move to James Picariello with BNP Paribas.
James Picariello:
Hi, guys. Just a quick one on the key business vertical growth. So active safety, user experience, high-voltage electrification, non-auto, can you share what the growth rate expectations are for this year within the guide?
Joe Massaro:
Yes, sure. No, generally very consistent, James. I mentioned high voltage to John. We still continue to see that north of 30%. That's excluding Intercable. As you mentioned at the time of the deal, Intercable we're -- obviously, the M&A deals aren't in the organic growth numbers at this point. But Intercable in and of itself grows well above 30% per year, so consistent with our high voltage business. We're actually seeing some active safety acceleration growth this year. It had been in, call it, the low to mid-20s over the last couple of years. We're actually seeing that accelerate close to 30% in 2023. As we launched to Kevin's comments, just launched a number of new number of new full systems. So I think those -- we've talked in the past about what the CAGRs, the multiyear CAGRs for those product lines are sort of high 20% to 30% for active safety, north of 30% for high voltage. Those continues to – that continues to be the case. Infotainment, we've talked about it, user experience. We are going through a product transition there. We expect that business to grow, sort of, high single digits this year, as we move from legacy systems to these more robust integrated cockpit solutions. And eventually, we see infotainment being sort of up integrated into the SVA systems, which is what we're working on with our customers now. So -- but again, continue to grow above market, and it's an important part of the business. But, obviously, the higher growth coming from active safety, high voltage.
James Picariello:
Got it. That's super helpful. And then, just with respect to the $135 million in lower disruption costs for this year, can you confirm what that overall cumulative impact is entering this year? I believe the number was -- something like $295 million was the expectation as of last quarter. Seems as though the fourth quarter incurred some additional challenges tied to China. So, yes, if you could share maybe the time line to fully recapture this all-in bucket, what that is, that would be great.
Joe Massaro:
Yes. I wish I could give you the full -- the time line of recapture. We've had $180 million in. We finished last year at a little over $300 million. So that's what's coming down from. We're taking the $135 million down to the $180 million._
James Picariello:
Okay. And then, over time, this will -- these cost challenges are fully addressable?
Joe Massaro:
Yes. No, listen. Rod in his comment was correct, right? We said at the -- we think four to six quarters from the beginning of 2023; we're going down over the next four quarters, that $135 million, working hard to get them down. Again, its things like premium freight, its things like plant downtime that are either COVID or supply chain disruption related. We're seeing sequential improvement. I would expect to continue to see sequential improvement. But it's what you saw in the fourth quarter this year, right? There are things that pop up that make it an expensive operating environment.
Kevin Clark:
Yes, I think it's important to note, setting aside fourth quarter COVID, when you think about car and inputs to a car, supply chain disruption can start with just a shortage of one part. And the issues related to excess labor, premium shipments, manufacturing, loss of manufacturing productivity. And that's all it takes. And there's a ripple effect and those dollars, obviously, are those inefficiencies and costs obviously add up. So, although it does, to Joe's point, overall, the supply chain situation is improving. There are still continue to be some unique situations that were outstanding or occurred in 2022 that are going to continue in 2023, with specific semiconductor suppliers. And then periodically, there are surprises that affect the industry, the players like ourselves need to react to. And our real focus has been, how do we make sure we keep our customers connected. So we've consciously made the decision to absorb a portion of that cost near term, go back to the customer for relief once we've addressed the issue, and we've kept them connected. And we think that's translated into the -- quite frankly, the bookings that we've had in 2022, we expect to have in 2023. And, quite frankly, their posture on price recovers. So it's tough to predict.
James Picariello:
Thank you.
Kevin Clark:
Thanks, James.
Operator:
That does conclude the Q&A portion of today's call. At this time, I would like to hand the conference back over to Kevin for any additional or closing remarks.
Kevin Clark:
Thanks, operator, and thanks, everybody, for your participation today. Take care, and we'll see you on the 14.
Operator:
That does conclude today's teleconference. We thank you all for your participation.
Operator:
Good day, and welcome to the Aptiv Q3 2022 Earnings Call. Today's conference is being recorded. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Jessica Kourakos, Vice President of Investor Relations and ESG. Please go ahead.
Jessica Kourakos:
Thank you, Bettina. Good morning, and thank you for joining Aptiv's Third Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. The press release and related tables, along with the slide presentation, can be found on the Investor Relations portion of our website at www.aptiv.com. Today's review of our financials exclude amortization, restructuring and other special items and will address the continuing operations of Aptiv. The reconciliation between GAAP and non-GAAP measures for our Q3 financials as well as our full year 2022 outlook are included at the back of the slide presentation and the earnings press release. During today's call, we will be providing certain forward-looking information, which reflects Aptiv's current view of future financial performance and may be materially different for reasons that we cite in our Form 10-K and other SEC filings, including uncertainties posed by the COVID-19 pandemic, the ongoing supply chain disruptions and the conflict between Ukraine and Russia. Joining us today will be Kevin Clark, Aptiv's Chairman and CEO; and Joe Massaro, CFO and Senior Vice President of Business Operations. Kevin will provide a strategic update on the business, and Joe will cover the financial results in more detail before we open the call to Q&A. With that, I'd like to turn the call over to Kevin Clark.
Kevin Clark:
Thank you, Jessica, and thanks, everyone, for joining us this morning. Beginning on Slide 3. We had a strong third quarter, so let me touch on a few of the highlights. New business bookings totaled over $5 billion, bringing the year-to-date total to over $25 billion, already outpacing last year's record full year amount of $24 billion, and cementing another record year in 2022. Revenue increased 33% to $4.6 billion, representing 9 points of growth over underlying vehicle production, driven by the strength of our safe, green and connected product portfolio. We continue to execute well despite the constrained environment and macro headwinds. EBITDA and earnings per share totaled $673 million and $1.28, respectively, reflecting flow-through on volume growth and material cost recoveries partially offset by costs related to material inflation and supply chain disruptions. We remain on track to reach this year's target of $500 million of material cost recoveries and $100 million of cost reductions, increasing our profitability and enhancing the resiliency of our business model. And lastly, we continue to invest in growth opportunities as reflected by our agreement to acquire Intercable Automotive Solutions which further strengthens our high-voltage product portfolio. Turning to Slide 4. Aptiv's industry-leading portfolio of electrical architecture products and full system-level capabilities, uniquely positions us to optimize vehicle architecture systems. Intercable Automotive is an industry leader in the design and manufacture of high-voltage busbars and interconnect solutions. The company has an outstanding management team that has developed a portfolio of innovative high-voltage power solutions, including their seventh generation busbar product that they've leveraged into very strong relationships with several leading European automotive OEMs. The partnership between Aptiv and Intercable will enhance the strength and breadth of our combined product portfolios, allow Intercable to leverage Aptiv's global scale, manufacturing footprint, especially in North America and China, further strengthen our capabilities to design and deliver fully optimized high-voltage architecture solutions that reduce vehicle weight, mass and costs, and we can leverage these synergies to accelerate the revenue and earnings growth of our combined businesses. We look forward to closing this transaction later this year and welcoming Intercable Automotive to the Aptiv team. Turning to Slide 5 to review our segment highlights. Our full system solutions across both the Brain and Nervous System are accelerating the development of the electrified software-defined vehicle of the future. In the Advanced Safety and User Experience segment, our portfolio of technologies is helping to increase the penetration of advanced active safety solutions, including a third quarter business award from a major local Chinese OEM for our next-generation ADAS platform, representing our seventh major active safety platform customer. In addition, during the quarter, we secured a high-volume award with a large customer in Asia to provide our next-generation integrated cockpit controller. And lastly, we continue to build a growing pipeline of software revenue opportunities with an increasing number of North American, European and Asian OEMs, which we're confident will begin to turn into customer awards in 2023 and beyond. In the Signal and Power Solutions segment, as the demand for vehicle electrification continues to accelerate, we're experiencing significant growth in our high-voltage business, which will reach $1.2 billion in revenues this year and accounts for 25% of year-to-date new business awards in the segment. In addition, we continue to successfully leverage our vehicle architecture capabilities to drive revenue diversification and strong growth in the commercial vehicle and nonautomotive markets, which increased 24% during the quarter. And lastly, our industry-leading position as a full system solution provider of high-voltage architecture, combined with our capabilities in vehicle electronics and software systems has uniquely positioned us to expand our portfolio into power electronic solutions and battery management systems, further broadening our offerings and strengthening our position as the industry leader in vehicle architecture. Moving to Slide 6, how we put innovation in motion. During the quarter, Aptiv was named a 2022 PACE Award winner for our Central Vehicle Controller which is scheduled to begin production in 2023 with a major Chinese OEM. This high-performing compute platform is a key piece of the architecture that translates software code into physical action, efficiently and securely controlling the flow of data on and off the vehicle, managing communication for current and emerging high-speed protocols and reducing complexity by up-integrating critical body functions. This particular central vehicle controller is a first-to-market solution and a critical element of our smart vehicle architecture and is essential to enabling the software-defined vehicle. We are increasingly collaborating with our OEM customers to bring these innovative solutions to market as evidenced by our recent participation in the IZB 2022 Conference in Wolfsburg, Germany, where we showcased our portfolio of full system solutions for both hardware and software, to VW CEO, Oliver Blume and his management team pictured here. With Aptiv's Brain and Nervous System capabilities, we're uniquely positioned to reduce complexity through architecture optimization, while enabling the full abstraction of software from hardware. Increasingly important to automotive OEMs, our system-level design capabilities enables breakthrough levels of assembly automation, increasing quality while also reducing complexity and cost. And as customers migrate to next-generation architectures, capable of supporting software-defined solutions, it's important that they have the right software tools to develop the applications they support. This is why Aptiv is investing in end-to-end cloud native software development tools, which we previewed at IZB and will unveil at CES in 2023 Feedback from IZB was overwhelmingly positive, providing an opportunity to increase our level of collaboration with OEM customers and further validating Aptiv as a trusted technology partner. Turning to Slide 7 to provide an update on new business awards. As I mentioned, third quarter new business bookings totaled $5.1 billion, bringing our year-to-date total of $25.4 billion surpassing our previous full year record, further validation of the strength of our portfolio of advanced technologies and our ability to deliver exceptional value for our customers. Advanced Safety and User Experience bookings during the quarter totaled $1.4 billion, bringing the year-to-date total to a record $11 billion. Driven by the continued strong adoption of advanced active safety solutions, including the new business award I mentioned previously from a major local Chinese OEM for our next-gen ADAS solution, which we will leverage our scalable ADAS platform to support a wide range of advanced safety features. Bookings for our Signal and Power Solutions segment reached $3.7 billion during the quarter, including another strong quarter for high-voltage electrification awards, bringing the year-to-date total to roughly $3.5 billion. We've seen a very balanced bookings profile across our high-voltage product offerings, underscoring the strength of our industry-leading portfolio of advanced technologies. Another strong quarter of new business awards while at the same time successfully negotiating material cost recoveries with our OEM customers is further validation of the uniqueness of our portfolio, the strength of our customer relationships and our flawless operating execution. Turning to Slide 8. Despite the constrained environment and macro headwinds, we continue to take actions to increase the underlying resiliency of our business model and deliver sustainable value creation by enhancing our portfolio of full system solutions to increase our addressable content on the electrified software-defined vehicles of the future, recovering increased material input costs and optimizing our cost structure, smartly deploying capital to further strengthen our capabilities to meet the evolving needs of our customers and intelligently diversifying our revenue base into less cyclical nonautomotive markets. We're confident that these actions will position us to continue to create value as the industry transitions to the electrified software-defined vehicle and will be reflected in an acceleration in new business bookings, continued strong revenue growth over market, meaningful margin expansion and strong cash flow generation. With that, I'll turn the call over to Joe to go through the financial highlights in more detail.
Joe Massaro:
Thanks, Kevin, and good morning, everyone. Starting with a recap of the third quarter financials on Slide 9. As Kevin noted in his opening comments, revenues of $4.6 billion were up 33% with 9 points of growth above underlying vehicle production. Adjusted EBITDA and operating income were $673 million and $525 million, respectively. EBITDA margins expanded 330 basis points versus third quarter last year and grew 560 basis points sequentially, reflecting flow-through on increased volumes of approximately 32%, both year-over-year and sequentially, continued progress on customer recoveries of direct material inflation, as well as other performance and cost savings actions, partially offset by a return to a more normalized price down environment and the impact of FX, commodities and nonmaterial cost increases. EPS in the quarter was $1.28, an increase of over 150% from prior year, reflecting higher net earnings. And operating cash flow totaled $437 million, a significant improvement from the prior year and sequential quarters. As I will discuss in a moment, we will be updating our full year cash flow guidance to reflect the higher expected investment in certain key inventories to help better navigate supply chain constraints and prepare for 2023 launch activities. Capital expenditures for the quarter were $212 million. Looking ahead at the third quarter revenues in more detail on Slide 10. Adjusted revenue growth of 33% reflected both our growth over market as well as the rebound in global vehicle production from the prior year, which was heavily impacted by semiconductor shortages. Growth across all regions was led by our key product lines, including high voltage and active safety and reflect some improvement in supply chain conditions. However, despite this relative improvement, we continue to operate in a constrained environment with both direct and indirect impacts on our customers and operations. Direct material inflation recoveries totaled $199 million, and price downs were $64 million, approximately 1.8%. The FX and commodity impact was significant, totaling $226 million, primarily related to the weaker Euro and RMB. Regionally, North American revenues were up 31% or 7% above market as production at several of our larger North American ASUX customers were impacted by supply chain constraints. In Europe, we saw outgrowth of 9%, driven by continued high voltage and active safety growth. And in China, revenues were up 42% or 11 points over market driven in part by a significant increase in launch activity in our Signal and Power segment. Moving to the segments on the next slide. Advanced Safety and User Experience revenues rose 26% in the period or 2% over market. As previously noted, ASUX experienced lower North American growth over market as several customers experienced supply chain constraints that impacted their vehicle production in the quarter. Excluding these customers, ASUX growth over market was in line with expectations and prior periods. Segment adjusted EBITDA was $122 million or 10.2% of revenues reflecting strong flow-through on incremental volumes, the previously discussed material cost recoveries, improved operating performance and the benefit of engineering credits. Signal and Power Solutions revenue rose 35% in the period or 11% above market. The outperformance was driven by strength in several product lines, including high voltage. Segment EBITDA of $551 million or 16.1% of revenues include strong flow-through on incremental volumes and incremental material cost recoveries, partially offset by the impact of FX and commodities. Moving to our full year outlook on Slide 12. Our outlook for revenue, operating margins and EPS remain unchanged from the guidance provided last quarter despite the negative impact of foreign exchange, which has increased significantly since we provided our full year guide. We remain confident that we are well positioned to continue to execute despite the ongoing concerns on supply chain constraints, COVID impacts in China and disruptions in Europe. We expect revenue in the range of $17 billion to $17.3 billion, a growth over market for the year to be within our previously communicated range of 8% to 10%. EBITDA and operating income of $2.2 billion and $1.6 billion at the midpoint, respectively, and earnings per share of $3.30, an increase of 8% over last year, despite a meaningful drag from FX and commodities. We are updating our cash flow guidance, and we now expect to finish the year at $1.35 billion versus the prior guidance of $1.5 billion. As I previously noted, the updated cash flow guidance reflects our decision to carry increased inventory of certain key components to help mitigate the impact of supply chain constraints as we begin to prepare for a number of new customer launches in early 2023. Before turning the call back to Kevin, I wanted to touch briefly on 2023 as we have started the early phases of planning for next year. Although given the ongoing macro challenges, it is too early to provide any specific guidance. However, our strategy remains unchanged, and we continue to be well positioned to lead the transition to higher contented software-enabled vehicles. And although we expect to benefit from overall demand for key technologies like smart vehicle architecture, high voltage and active safety, the progress we have made on material cost recoveries and operational performance and the inclusion of the Wind River and Intercable acquisitions, we remain cautious of the lingering headwinds and believe continued supply chain tightness and deterioration in economic conditions, particularly in Europe, will negatively impact overall 2023 vehicle production levels as well as the smoothness of vehicle production schedules, making it potentially more challenging to recapture operating leverage. And we would expect the FX commodity headwinds to persist into 2023 as the more meaningful impacts of changes in the euro and RMB did not occur until the second half of this year. With that, I'd like to hand the call back to Kevin for his closing remarks.
Kevin Clark:
Thanks, Joe. I'll wrap up on Slide 13 before opening up the call to questions. Our business is built on a strong foundation and continues to gain momentum as we close out 2022 despite the constrained environment and macro headwinds that Joe just touched on. Our strategic alignment with our OEM customers has really never been better as reflected in our continued strong revenue growth over market and the pace of our new business bookings. We continue to make progress recovering the increases in material input costs while also further optimizing our cost structure, and we continue to smartly deploy capital both organically and inorganically to further strengthen our competitive position. These actions have translated into a significant improvement in our margins as evidenced by this quarter's results and are providing momentum and a strong entry point for 2023. As Joe just mentioned, in light of the current macro environment, we'll provide a detailed update on our 2023 outlook when we release fourth quarter earnings, but you can expect us to focus on delivering continued strong revenue growth over market and margin expansion in a challenging environment. With that, we can open up the line for questions.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] Our first question today comes from Rod Lache of Wolfe Research.
Rod Lache:
Good morning, everybody. I was hoping first to just maybe better understand the year-over-year earnings bridge that you had this quarter. So you did on an adjusted basis, 256 of EBIT and you're getting to $525 million this year. You mentioned 32% conversion on the $1 billion of volume, which obviously will be more than accounting for that growth. Could you just talk to the net impact of commodities. That $199 million tailwind, what was the net effect netting that out? And were there any out-of-period benefits in that number?
Joe Massaro:
Yes, Rod, it's Joe, let me start. So FX, we mentioned the revenue number is about $226 million on the year-over-year. On the OI, that flow through is about $20 million numbers on FX and commodity. So obviously, picking up lower euro and then the really the start of the RMB weakening at the end of the third quarter, although that obviously picks up in the fourth quarter as well and will pick up in the fourth quarter based on everything we're seeing. Listen, from an out-of-period perspective, a lot of puts and takes with customer recoveries, inflation, some premium freight that we'll get reimbursed for, for next quarter, but nothing overly material from a net perspective. Really just -- again, there's a lot going on in the quarter. So you've got a few things go into different directions. But if you got the volume flow through and the FX impact, you really got sort of the net there.
Rod Lache:
Okay. So it sounds like mostly FX in that number and that recovery was mostly offset by higher costs, if I understand that correctly?
Joe Massaro:
Yes. The only other thing I'd say - and I mentioned in my prepared remarks, we're seeing a return to a more normalized price down environment. So we've got price down to 1.7%. That had been -- we've been holding off on price downs until we got through all the customer recovery. So as we communicated last quarter, we expected to return to sort of more of a normal operating cadence with our customers. So you got that price down at 1.7% as well.
Rod Lache:
Okay. And you opened the door to 2023. And I know you can't really give a lot of detail yet. But last quarter, you mentioned that on a seasonally adjusted basis, we should be thinking that margins are around 10% in the back half. And it seems like you're kind of tracking to that. You're at an $18 billion run rate of revenue. So that's about $1.8 billion of EBIT. Is it still correct that there's around $100 million of additional kind of unrecovered costs that you're -- that you need to go after for next year?
Joe Massaro:
I'm not sure we talked about a 10% to 10.5% jumping off point. I think that's generally holding operationally from everything we're seeing. We're sort of tracking to that. My only caution there would be, I think we're going to have to evaluate or one should evaluate sort of the FX impact. There could be about 0.5 point of headwind to that range if these FX rates hold going into next year. But operationally, I'd say things are happening as we had expected.
Kevin Clark:
Rod maybe if I can just chime in on price recoveries. The team has done an excellent job as it relates to recapturing material cost increases and translating that now into POs with our OEM customers. So we feel good about heading into 2023 with respect to that particular category. Obviously, what we need to go after next year is partly influenced by what we see from a material inflation standpoint, if there's some incremental increases going into 2023. So we're well positioned as it relates to what we've translated into POs this year heading into next year. If there's more material inflation, we'll go back to OEM customers with increased prices. The OEM customers are aware of that. And then secondly, just to Joe's point on FX, I think Joe highlighted it on it in his comments a couple of times. When you look at the recent movement in the Euro and the RMB, we've seen a significant change over the last month or two. So I think there's a question there as it relates to what's the trend in currencies heading into 2023 and what sort of movements do we see.
Rod Lache:
Great. And just lastly, Kevin, any updated thoughts on investment in Motional just in light of what we've heard from Ford and just elsewhere in the market?
Kevin Clark:
Yes. Listen, Motional continues to be very successful in terms of advancing the technology road map. I'm sure you saw the announcement as it relates to Uber and the plan to integrate the Motional solution or motional vehicles in the Uber network in the United States. As it relates to the Ford announcement, as it relates to Argo, listen, I think there's an element of -- our perspective on autonomy has probably been a bit different than most OEMs that are out there. When we originally made our investments in Automatica and nuTonomy, a big piece of our strategy was with respect to how do we take those technologies that are utilized for vehicle nuTonomy and how do we pull those forward into active safety solutions, which is what we're doing today, which is that technology or a portion of that technology, a portion of that know-how is embedded in our current generation ADAS platform. In addition, Motional is a customer of Aptiv. So when you think about perception systems and other items, they're actually a customer. So we've always viewed, right? I think we've talked about it in the past, we've always viewed autonomy as kind of the far in of the spectrum as it relates to active safety. So from a strategic standpoint, a business standpoint, it's fairly well integrated into what we're doing operationally today.
Rod Lache:
Okay. Thank you.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Itay Michaeli of Citi. Please go ahead.
Itay Michaeli:
Great, thank you. Good morning, everybody. Just two quick ones. First on the Q4 guide. Just hoping you can maybe share your latest LVP views for the year. and maybe any particular bias of the low or high end of the confirmed range for 2022?\ And then Joe, going back to 2023, any early thoughts on how we should be thinking -- how you're thinking about global LVP for next year?
Joe Massaro:
Yes. Itay, let me start with 2023. It's just there. We're still working through that. There's a tremendous amount of puts and takes at the customer levels we haven't seen schedule. So it's really too early for us to have a view on the numbers or the direction. As it relates to Q4, we're basically holding the guide. I think if we were to look at it, there's certainly some potential for upside, particularly with China production. Although more recently, we've seen probably more pullbacks in some China production schedules versus increases. But I understand there is a desire in that market to build more vehicles. The way I view the guide at the moment, we're certainly confident in the midpoint to the extent there's bias to the top end of the range. I think it's going to be a trade-off between vehicle production increases and China, Europe holding steady and then just how big an FX impact as sort of offsets on the top line. So that's really what we're looking at and really sort of the driver of holding the guide is to the extent you pick up some revenue on upside in China, which we'd admit is possible. We don't quite see it yet in schedules, but understand the bias there from customers. We are mindful of just the revenue impact on the -- from the FX perspective.
Kevin Clark:
Itay, I can just qualitatively, I just want to reiterate Joe's point. Although supply chains seem to be improving. The reality is we're seeing continued volatility in customer schedules, right, week-to-week. And maybe more recently, more volatility to the downside on the China production schedules, which we did not see in Q3.
Itay Michaeli:
Got It. That’s helpful.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Joe Spak of RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead.
Joe Spak:
Thanks so much. Good morning. Joe, maybe just a little bit more on this decision to build inventory. It sounds like it's pretty customer or launch specific? I just want to get a little bit more understanding on your thinking because we just saw a competitor at least on the connector side, they had sort of built prior inventory and they're sort of leading some of their inventory go down now because they feel better about the supply chain. So, is this just you being extra cautious in terms of building your own stock? And is that a new normal? Or should we expect that to come down over the course of a year or so?
Joe Massaro:
Yeah. Listen, I think it is broadly speaking, Joe, in the electronic space, pass electronics, semiconductor is obviously a big part of that. I'd say it is specific around some heavy launch activity we expect in the first half of next year wanting to make sure we've got adequate supply, sort of getting the supply when we can. There's also an element and my ASUX comments around growth over market so to speak to it, we are still seeing customers impacted by lack of availability. So I understand the comments you're referring to from TEL, but broadly speaking, across that electronics supply chain, I don't think this is just an active issue because some of the impacts we're seeing on customers, we were not (inaudible). You're still seeing some constraints on semis and passive electronics. So it's making sure we're running into -- the decision was basically not to take inventory down as much as we originally planned in the fourth quarter and hold on to what we have, continuing to order to make sure we're protected next year. And I would say from an unwind, it's very hard to call at the moment. I don't think this is a new normal multiple years. Could we sort of be running at higher levels for the bulk of 2023. I think that's possible, depending on how we see things improve.
Kevin Clark:
If I can add, I think we should be really, really clear. Sorry, Joe. It relates to specific programs that we're launching in 2023 and relates to specific vendors who've been challenged from an overall supply chain standpoint. And to Joe's point, it's not the new normal to the extent their capabilities or their capacity increases, we have the ability to ratchet down orders during 2023. So we're doing what we can to protect our customers and, quite frankly, protect ourselves from a supply chain standpoint.
Joe Spak:
Okay. One, maybe just a question on sort of probing '23 a little. I understand you mentioned that could weigh on that 10% to 10.5% jumping point you previously mentioned. But I guess I just -- if most of the cost recoveries you talked about in this third quarter were in period in response to sort of the prior question, it would seem like that alone sort of weighed by 50 bps. So is that an offset? I mean, I guess, we don't really know like maybe the recoveries continue and that's going to sort of continue to be a drag or next year. I guess I just want to understand like what sort of assumption on recoveries was in that 10% to 10.5% starting point?
Joe Massaro:
Yes, it was the $0.5 billion and sort of -- it was $0.5 billion and basically getting that $0.5 million of inflation covered with recoveries round numbers, and that's happening and then we'd roll that into piece price next year. So that is on track. That's really not connected to the FX or the 10% to 10.5% discussion. Like I said, operationally, I think we're hitting the things we need to do. I just -- again, it's a caution, the FX number significant in Q3 is going to be significant in Q4. And if you look at just where some of those key rates were in the first half of 2022 versus if we were to ever end at sort of current spot levels, there is going to be an impact there.
Joe Spak:
Okay. Maybe just one quick one. You mentioned Wind River for '23. I think it's been 10 months since you made that announcement, any update.
Kevin Clark:
Yes. We're just - we continue through the regulatory process at this point in time. So that's where we stand.
Joe Spak:
Okay, thank you.
Operator:
Our next question today comes from Adam Jonas of Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.
Adam Jonas:
Thanks, everybody. First question is on commoditization of ADAS. You have this pretty dominant Tier 2 supplier of ADAS system on a chip that's looking to become a Tier 1. Qualcomm announced this monster auto backlog integrating ADAS into infotainment. Apple is reportedly speccing out a 10 camera path of optical system and expanding CarPlay. So how fast is ADAS becoming commoditized in your opinion? And what does this mean for the ASUX business?
Kevin Clark:
Yes. I don't - Adam, I'll take that. Listen, we don't view it as becoming commoditized. We have -- as I mentioned, we won another full platform program in China in addition to the large European program that we were awarded earlier this year. It's important that as a supplier, whether you're a Tier 1 or you alluded to the Tier 2 that you have the ability from a perception system standpoint across multiple perception systems, you have the ability to do sensor fusion, you have the ability to do integration and you have the ability to build domain controllers hardware. And with respect to the players that you're referencing, I'm not aware of any of them that have had the experience and the capability across each one of those areas. So we view ADAS as an important area. We don't view it as an area that will become commoditized as we've talked about in the past. It's obviously an important feature for our customers. It's obviously a feature that helps them sell cars. And it's a feature that they make a lot of money on. And we continue to be very well positioned in it. We continue to invest to further enhance and strengthen our position in the space.
Adam Jonas:
Kevin. Just a follow-up on decelerating EV penetration or the risk of decelerating penetration. I mean we're still going to have growth from a low base of EVs, but we're seeing battery cost inflation and geopolitics at least at the margin work against affordability, the affordability argument of EVs and many legacy OEMs still struggling to get accessible, affordable models out. I'm thinking, do you agree that there's a risk that could flatten at the margin flat in that EV adoption curve. And if the pace of EV growth is slower, and we sell more ICE architectures for longer, can you remind us, is that a positive, negative or neutral to your SPS margin?
Kevin Clark:
Well, yes, it's a great question. I'd say kind of 2 things on it. I think what you referenced as a potential risk to EV adoption, it is a possibility that it slows EV adoption. Our view is that it doesn't flatline EV adoption. With respect to our position from a high-voltage electrification standpoint, we're effectively the only player that can provide the full vehicle architecture solution. What we're finding is more and more customers coming to us to take more of the overall content to provide the cable management, the wire harness, the connector and now within our cable automotive, the busbar content as well. So regardless if we see slowing, we think there is a huge opportunity for us to capture more content. And then as I mentioned in my comments, in addition, we're investing in capabilities in and around power electronics as well as battery management systems. We're in discussions with customers as it relates to both products as we speak. And we'd expect customer awards to be forthcoming. So we believe it will be a continued high-growth area, and we feel as though we're well positioned, quite frankly, to expand our share of wallet, Adam, in that space. When you look at content differential to get to the last part of your question, high-voltage electrification, especially battery electric vehicles, probably what you're alluding to, the content opportunity for Aptiv is significant. Internal combustion engine typically has content vehicle architecture content of about $500 per vehicle. When you move to a fully battery electric vehicle, that's closer to $1,500. So it's a meaningful uptick in the content opportunity.
Adam Jonas:
Thank\, Kevin.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Chris McNally of Evercore. Please go ahead.
Chris McNally:
Thanks so much team, And Joe I appreciate the sort of the added color on maybe some of the bias to the middle or the upper end of the range with sort of production still a little bit unclear. FX, obviously, a drain as the quarter went on in terms of spot rates. But can we dive in a little bit more to your China comments and some of the volatility around schedules. I think one of the obvious questions for people is what is the baseline for that comment. I guess your Q2 outlook was minus 4%. It seems the volatility now or the question is some range of China up 5% to maybe China up 9%. So it's obviously -- is it fair to think better, a lot better than what you had previously maybe adding to the organic growth? And then some of the questions is more around the last 2 months and what that means to '23/
Joe Massaro:
Yeah, Chris, I think you're right. That original full year guide was down 4%. It's obviously strengthened. I think for us, that's exactly the point I was trying to make is how much higher could it be -- and then relative to -- as it relates to that guide, just how much of that gets sucked back in by FX. I'd say right now, again, I think something north of 5%, at least what we're seeing from customers would be tough to achieve, but no, our bias to the upside within the guide is related to China production. That's fair.
Chris McNally:
Okay. Super clear. And Joe, do you think right now the base for how customers are ordering is assuming that the VAT status, the tax payments will not be renewed sort of typical China, we won't find out until January 3, but the history here is like '16 and '17 is that you typically get 2 years. So do you have a view on whether we'll have the stimulus renewed into next year? And could we see a pickup in the China order rates once that happens in Q1.
Joe Massaro:
I think I would say what we're seeing, there's a lot of noise in that market. I think it's hard to pull out incentives and sort of the puts and takes, pull heads at the moment. They're obviously, I think, coming out of that Party Congress. There's some discussions there around sort of market and how friendly the market gets over the coming couple of quarters. There is some heightened concern around COVID lockdown so that we're hearing, certainly not to the extent we saw in Q2, but renewed concern about that. So I think it's hard to pull out sort of 1 particular facet of that at the moment, Chris, Kevin, I don't know if you have...
Kevin Clark:
No, I think you've covered it...
Chris McNally:
That's perfect. And if I could just sneak in one for the 2023. Is it also -- I'm not sure if you mentioned this, should we use the 8% to 10% as sort of a base of the outgrowth, whatever production ends up being?
Joe Massaro:
Yes, yes, that's fair.
Operator:
We will now take a question from Emmanuel Rosner of Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.
Emmanuel Rosner:
Thank you very much. I guess in some of the words of caution that you were expressing earlier for 2023, one piece is there is clearly the FX headwinds, which is understandable. The other piece seems to be supply chain tightness, which I think you said could make it more challenging to recapture operating leverage. Are you thinking that this is the sort of volatility that would result into lower incremental margins than usual?
Joe Massaro:
Yes. What I was referring to Emmanuel there, and we've talked about it really for different regions for the past couple of years, right? I mean one of the big benefits to our customers, ourselves, and I'm sure it's just not us from a supply perspective, it's the smoothness of production. Even if you're at a lower number, the ability to sort of set up and run without these stop starts from supply chain disruptions, just make for greater efficiency. And I think we'll be better year-over-year, obviously, just cautioning that to the extent we continue to see some of these disruptions, particularly in the first half of the year, again, as an industry, I mean, the disruptions we saw in North America, in Q3 were not related to our supply chain, but our customers were impacted. So it's just speaking to the abruptness of shutdowns and restarts. It does hurt from an operating leverage perspective.
Emmanuel Rosner:
Okay. And then also curious, how are you thinking about cost trajectory exiting the year and into next year? I found it interesting that you're back to more normalized price down, obviously, you would sort of like need a more stable cost base to sort of like be able to continue like this. So how should we think about it in terms of additional going forward, cost trajectory and any additional actions that would be needed?
Kevin Clark:
Is your question around price downs Emmanuel or input costs?
Emmanuel Rosner:
The question is mostly around input cost, but I was wondering if going back to normal price downs, like suggests that you're saying costs are stabilizing or not.
Kevin Clark:
Yes. So maybe I'll take a shot and going back to Joe's last answer to your question. I think what you're hearing from us as a management team is although Q3 obviously improved results, our general view supply chain is improving. All the challenges aren't behind us. And we continue to see inflation, we continue to see volatility in schedules, which translates into volatility in production. That translates into a higher cost load as it relates to manning in our facilities as it relates in transporting goods, so inbound and outbound freight that, to a certain extent, is built into our current run rate so that we have an element of flexibility to continue to support our customers. Now our customers are -- we've been aggressively going to our customers and pushing through that price -- those cost increases to our customers. Our customers have been supportive of that. We would expect that there's an element of that, that continues into 2023. Certainly in the -- at least in the first half of the year. And just given the volatility in the overall macro headwinds, at this point in time, we're planning that some of that doesn't go away. We're pushing through as much of it as we can, but it's difficult to be precise as it relates to your predictions on what you think margin expansion and other items are going to be in the early part of 2023.
Emmanuel Rosner:
Okay. Thank you for the color.
Operator:
We will now take our question from David Kelley of Jefferies. Please go ahead.
David Kelley:
Good morning. And thanks for taking my questions. Maybe I want to follow up on Intercable. I was hoping you could talk a bit more about their product portfolio and your opportunity to leverage their expertise within your platform? And then how should we think about their potential contribution to that $1,500 BEV content opportunity you referenced earlier?
Kevin Clark:
Yes. Intercable strong position, obviously, in high-voltage electrification. I mentioned in my comments, they're on their seventh generation busbar technology. So clearly, the industry leader from an overall technology standpoint. When you look at -- they have other products as well, interconnect, high-voltage interconnect solutions as well as electrical centers. It's a nice fit with what we do. A very strong position as it relates to busbars, a stronger position than what Aptiv currently has. So when you look at that product portfolio, certainly additive to the overall solution that we can bring to market. I think when you look at the overall busbar market, it's a little over $1 billion today. I think by 2026, it's expected to grow at about a 30% compounded rate. So 2026, 2027, it gets north of $4 billion. So significant revenue opportunity. Content per vehicle, depending on the nature of the busbar solution and the nature of the vehicle, it's anywhere between low end, call it, $100 to high end, close to $200 of vehicle content. So it's certainly meaningful. They have a very strong position in Europe with European OEMs, a very strong manufacturing position in Europe, a manufacturing footprint in China, we think there's an opportunity given our footprint in Asia, given our footprint in North America to expand their manufacturing footprint and introduce them to additional customers. So we view it as really a great opportunity to generate significant synergies. And Joe, did I miss anything?
Joe Massaro:
No, I think that covers it.
David Kelley:
Okay. Got it. Really helpful color. And just more broadly, realizing Wind River is still pending, but can you talk about your approach to acquisitions in 2023 given what feels like a shifting macro here.
Joe Massaro:
Yes, David, it's Joe. I'll start that one. Listen, I think we continue to obviously wanted to grow the portfolio, both organically and inorganically. I think from an M&A perspective, obviously, you've got to be mindful of valuations as the macros are challenging for us to forecast. Obviously, as challenging to sort of potentially value other businesses. And on the private side, it usually takes a few quarters for valuations to catch up to public market. So we'll proceed cautiously, but we're still very much interested in the types of transactions like Intercable that strengthened bolt-on transactions, larger bolt-on transactions that strengthen the SPS portfolio around key growth areas. And then mindful of software opportunities that can help accelerate sort of the organic plan around SBA and the software-defined vehicle. As we've always said, though, we're very careful to make sure we're building our strategy and building our plan to hit from an organic perspective. And that M&A, the added capabilities or added product lines that come with M&A would be in addition to that. But obviously in market, we need to be a little bit more careful around valuations, but continue to execute on that strategy.
David Kelley:
Got it. Thank you.
Operator:
We will now move to John Murphy of Bank of America. Please go ahead.
John Murphy:
Good morning, guys. Just two quick ones here. First, just on the volatility and schedules. I understand that it's depressing obviously the potential for incremental margins. But this is something that's been going on for almost 2 years now. And it just seems like we keep hearing the echo of this, and it seems like it's getting better, but then it's not, and that's certainly not your purview. It's outside of what you can control. What are the signs are -- what are the signs that you're looking for that we get some stability in schedules because, I mean, it sounds like it's just kind of popping up week-to-week and month-to-month, and it's very difficult to understand when it actually will start smoothing out. A - Kevin Clark Yes. John, I'll start. It's Kevin. Listen, it does start week-to-week and day-to-day to be honest with you. I'd say what we're seeing now are the swings are smaller. So with respect to peak to valley, you're seeing a much tighter curve. So that aspect is better. But there is still an element of when you think about manning from a manufacturing standpoint, when you think about inbound, outbound freight, those sorts of expenses, you're continuing to incur it, certainly at a higher level than sort of normal run rate. I'd say we feel like -- we're very close connected with our strategic semiconductor suppliers. We're very closely connected with our customers. Our supply chain and manufacturing teams are integrating, are talking to them and integrating with them on a day-to-day basis. So we have our arms around it and are able to react faster when we see swings, but they're still occurring. And Q3 supply chain was better than Q2. We expect Q4 to improve over Q3, but again, we're still seeing the supply chain tightness. And if there's any sort of event that occurs during a given day, week or month, you seem to have a boomerang effect in terms of the overall comment on ultimately vehicle production. And it's just something we're trying to stay close to. It's something that we're trying to manage through. And we just want to make sure that you guys understand it's still going on. It's not completely behind us. And we wish it were, but it's not. And we're doing our best to manage through it.
John Murphy:
Okay. And then just a second question, as we look at Slide 7. Obviously, the bookings are pretty remarkable this year, about $13.5 billion and what you're hiding in your in active safety, high-voltage and SVA, there's almost $12 billion that's outside of those 3 technologies. I'm just curious if you can give us some color on those. And as we think about those rolling on, maybe they roll on faster because they're sort of less leading-edge technology, but they might come on faster at higher margins and higher returns. So any color around that almost $12 billion is outside of those three.
Kevin Clark:
Yes. Well, yes, it ranges for areas like user experience, like our traditional connector solutions, our traditional cable management solutions. They go on low-voltage vehicles or traditional vehicle architecture and voltage solutions. I mentioned user experience, so infotainment systems in cabin sensing. Systems, body and security systems. So there's a whole -- there's a number of different products, a number of different product lines that fill the balance of those bookings.
John Murphy:
Is it fair to say, Kevin, though that those come on at higher margins and returns in the near term potentially. So those are important to watch for?
Kevin Clark:
Yes. I think it depends on what the product line is. I'd say most are basically in line with what our traditional margin structure is across all of our product lines. Some of those that are higher volume, it may be a little bit higher.
John Murphy:
Okay. Thank you very much, guys.
Operator:
Our final question today comes from Mark Delaney of Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.
Mark Delaney:
Yes, good morning. Thank you very much for taking my questions. First on the implied 4Q revenue guidance, I think it's down sequentially relative to 3Q, even if we assume the company is coming in at the high end of the full year revenue outlook. Could you help us bridge what's going on with 4Q revenue compared to the third quarter? And then how much is maybe FX as opposed to other factors?
Joe Massaro:
Yes. Listen, I think sequentially, it is down a little bit launch activity in Q3. The answer to Chris' question, Mark, obviously, we are potentially looking at additional volumes in China and balancing the FX impact to that. Year-over-year, and there's just some ebb and flows here as you think about the year-over-year as well, right? Year-over-year, we're still up 9%. If you recall, Q4 last year had some -- it was rebounding a bit from Q3 of last year, which was very depressed. So you've got a little bit of the ins and outs, but it really comes back to how much upside is from China and what the offset is with the FX. I think if you're looking at that sort of revenue top line number.
Mark Delaney:
Okay. And then specifically on Europe. Last quarter, the company spoke of some weakness with some of the OEMs in Europe relative to reductions to their scheduled forecast, could you elaborate a little bit more on what you've seen transpire in Europe relative to the last update you gave 90 days ago, and as the magnitude or breadth of OEM schedule reductions in Europe changed at all?
Joe Massaro:
Yes. No, good question. No, listen, I think we've -- Europe, for the most part, has sort of helped the schedules. It's what we've seen. I realized we were lower than sort of a lot of other folks out there. I think some of those other forecasts have come in. Not necessarily right to where we were, but have come in a lot sort of closer to us than maybe where they started. So I'd say European customer schedules, again, we're tracking. I think there's remains concerned around economic disruptions in Europe. And obviously, there's potential impact from energy shortages, although I would say the customers are a little bit more confident that they won't be impacted in Q4 than they were when we spoke in August. But no, as I mentioned in my comments in 2023, I think Europe remains a challenging environment for the foreseeable future, just given everything going on there.
Mark Delaney:
Thank you.
Operator:
Thanks. That concludes today's question-and-answer session. I would now like to turn the call back to Kevin Clark for any additional or closing remarks.
Kevin Clark:
Great. Thank you, operator. Thanks, everyone, for joining us today. We really appreciate you taking the time. Take care.
Operator:
That will conclude today's call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Good day and welcome to the Aptiv Second Quarter 2022 Earnings Call. My name is Jennifer and I will be your conference operator today. [Operator Instructions] Thank you. Jessica Kourakos, Vice President of Investor Relations and ESG, you may begin your conference.
Jessica Kourakos:
Thank you, Jennifer. Good morning and thank you for joining Aptiv’s second quarter 2022 earnings conference call. The press release and related tables, along with the slide presentation can be found on the Investor Relations portion of our website at aptiv.com. Today’s review of our financials exclude amortization, restructuring and other special items and will address the continuing operations of Aptiv. The reconciliations between GAAP and non-GAAP measures for our Q2 financials as well as our full year 2022 outlook are included at the back of the slide presentation and the earnings press release. During today’s call, we will be providing certain forward-looking information, which reflects Aptiv’s current view of future financial performance and maybe materially different for reasons that we cite in our Form 10-K and other SEC filings, include uncertainties posed by the COVID-19 pandemic, the ongoing supply chain disruptions and the conflict between Ukraine and Russia. Joining us today will be Kevin Clark, Aptiv’s Chairman and CEO; and Joe Massaro, CFO and Senior Vice President of Business Operations. Kevin will provide a strategic update on the business and Joe will cover the financial results in more detail before we open the call to Q&A. With that, I would like to turn the call over to Kevin Clark.
Kevin Clark:
Thank you, Jessica and thanks everyone for joining us this morning. Beginning on Slide 3, through the first half of the year, two themes stand out; the first is strong broad-based demand across our portfolio of product offerings reflected in over $20 billion in bookings during the first half of 2022, including a record $14 billion in the second quarter alone, almost double where we were at this time last year. The growth in bookings showcases our strong portfolio of technologies and the increasing strategic value we are providing our customers as they transform to meet the consumer demand for the electrified software-defined vehicle. The second theme relates to the persistent COVID and supply chain issues that continue to constrain automotive production impacting our first half revenue growth and our profitability. Looking ahead, we believe that these constraints on production and the record levels of inflation will continue for several more quarters and will be addressed with actions that we already have in place. Newer challenges in Europe are being addressed with incremental measures, including another round of customer price increases and increased number of product redesigns further consolidation of our supplier base and additional structural cost reductions, all of which will significantly improve our profitability in the short and long-term. Setting aside the near-term constraints, I can confidently say that our competitive positioning, reflected in our bookings momentum, has never been stronger and will drive the acceleration of our revenue and earnings growth as vehicle production stabilizes. So we are balancing improving our profitability and cash flow over the short-term while continuing to invest in those growth initiatives that will drive more meaningful margin expansion in the years ahead. We will talk more about these at our upcoming Investor Day in Boston on February 14. By then, our 2022 results and 2023 guidance will be out and we can update investors on our strategy to enable the fully electrified software-defined vehicle of the future and how that will accelerate profitable growth and improve through-cycle resiliency in the years ahead. Let’s now turn to our second quarter results. Revenues totaled $4.1 billion, up 9% from the prior year, driven by strong demand across our portfolio of safe, green and connected technologies. Operating income and earnings per share totaled $213 million and $0.22 respectively, reflecting strong revenue growth more than offset by material inflation, incremental costs related to supply chain disruptions, shutdowns in China and some softening in vehicle production schedules in Europe. Turning to Slide 4, revenue grew 8 points over underlying vehicle production, which increased 1% in the quarter. North America production remained strong, while Europe experienced significant weakness from a combination of semiconductor chip supply and macroeconomic factors. China had a very strong finish to the second quarter despite a slow start due to COVID-related production disruptions. While our team is doing an excellent job keeping production going in this very volatile environment, the challenges we are facing continue to have a meaningful impact on our business. With supply chain disruptions and persistent inflation continuing to translate into incremental costs and the increased likelihood of disruption of the gas supply into Europe, we have accelerated several initiatives to increase our agility and resiliency and improve our profitability in the near-term. Moving to Slide 5, the tremendous customer pull for our products has positioned us well in our pricing discussions for both new program awards as well as cost recoveries. The pricing on new business bookings support our long-term margin framework. And as these bookings move into production, they will naturally improve our margin profile. Over the near-term, cost recoveries we have already negotiated with customers and are coming in above plan, will have a more significant impact on second half profitability. For context, the timing of cost recoveries for semiconductor broker buys negatively impacted ASUX margins by 300 basis points in the second quarter but will benefit our results in the second half of the year and going – second half of the year. Going forward, all future premiums will be passed on to customers at the time of the transaction. We continue to validate more second sources on key components and are passing through increased input costs to improve profitability. In addition, we are implementing additional overhead cost reductions and further rationalizing our footprint, which we expect to yield $100 million in savings in 2023. We have also been working on several product redesign initiatives to both increase our sourcing flexibility and mitigate the impact of inflation. The benefits from these redesign initiatives will accelerate during late 2022 and into 2023. We believe the current macro headwinds will elongate the automotive growth cycle. So we are further optimizing our cost structure to position us for success in both the short and the long-term. That means executing these cost reduction actions, while still preserving investments in our highest growth opportunities, including high-voltage electrification, active safety and smart vehicle architecture as well as our product redesign and validation initiatives that are important for increased resiliency and improved profitability. Lastly, we are also excited about our software strategy and the many opportunities we see with the acquisition of Wind River. In summary, the resiliency of our business model has put us in a strong competitive position to capitalize on the mega trends of safe, green and connected. Turning to Slide 6, as reflected in the momentum of our new business bookings, Aptiv is clearly gaining a lot of traction. Our unique position as the only provider of both the brain and nervous system of the vehicle has translated into significant – to a significant competitive mode, allowing Aptiv to provide full system-level end-to-end solutions that enable an efficient path to the fully electrified software-defined vehicle. Our full vehicle – our full system level solutions and capabilities optimizing vehicle architecture and allow for reduced vehicle complexity, flexible and scalable platforms, improve quality, reliability and performance and translates into significant weight, mass and cost savings. We also accelerate the vehicle development efforts of our customers, positioning us to launch the first-to-market zone controller with Volvo early next year. Our smart vehicle architecture solution not only creates accretive value for Aptiv, but also lowers total systems cost for our customers, enabling more vehicle automation and the seamless integration of new features and functionality. The recognition of the need for smart vehicle architecture is accelerating and is reflected in the 20 engagements with 10 customers and almost $5 billion of new business bookings today, demonstrating how Aptiv is uniquely positioned to lead the industry to the fully electrified software-defined vehicle. Moving to Slide 7. The momentum of our new business bookings during the first half of the year gives us confidence in our ability to sustain strong above-market growth at or above our long-term margin framework across both of our business segments. Second quarter bookings totaled $14.2 billion, a record for any quarter in the company’s history. Advanced Safety and User Experience bookings totaled a record $8.8 billion during the quarter, bringing the year-to-date total to $9.6 billion, also a record for the full year, even though we are just halfway through 2022. As we discussed on the previous slide, we continue to make significant commercial progress on our smart vehicle architecture solution. The advanced development programs we have been involved in are translating into new business awards as evidenced by the large advanced zone controller booking during the quarter from a leading German OEM, in addition to the central vehicle control award we received in the first quarter from the same customer. We are extremely excited about our continued deep strategic partnership with this customer as we redefine vehicle architecture with the full adoption of our SVA solution. Bookings for our Signal and Power Solutions segment reached $5.4 billion during the quarter, including another strong quarter for a high-voltage product line with $1 billion in customer awards, bringing the year-to-date total to over $2 billion. Our bookings momentum validates the value we bring with our system level approach to optimizing vehicle architecture, which reduces vehicle weight and mass, thereby reducing costs for OEM customers. It is also a testament to our strong customer relationships, our One Aptiv approach and our portfolio of advanced technologies, which is perfectly aligned to the safe, green and connected megatrends. I am truly proud of the work the team has done to continue to build strong relationships with our customers as a partner of choice for both the brain and the nervous system of the vehicle. Turning to Slide 8 in our Advanced Safety and User Experience segment, active safety revenue growth remained strong, up 21% during the quarter, driven by the continued penetration of advanced ADAS systems partially offset by semiconductor shortages impacting production in Europe and North America and User Experience revenues were down 6% in the quarter, primarily the result of continued chip supply constraints in Europe and the impact of China shutdowns on volume, but we expect to finish the year with approximately 10% revenue growth. As mentioned, we continue to experience increased demand for smart vehicle architecture and see a very strong pipeline of customer activity for the remainder of this year and into 2023. We have leveraged our competitive position to enter into strategic dialogues with several OEMs on redesigning their software architecture in addition to optimizing their vehicle architecture. We offer unique capabilities to modernize software development and deployment to help our customers migrate to the software-defined vehicles of the future, which unlocks additional opportunities to further enhance the value of Aptiv’s and our customers’ software solutions. Active Safety also continues to show strong momentum with more than $4 billion of awards in the quarter, including just under a $3 billion award with a global OEM for their next-gen Level 2, Level 3 ADAS system, reinforcing our leading position as the ADAS Supplier of Choice for this customer. Moving to Slide 9. Second quarter revenues in our Signal and Power Solutions segment rose 10%, 9 points better than global vehicle production, reflecting high-voltage revenues that increased 22% during the quarter, driven by the launch of new electric vehicle programs, particularly in Asia and North America and revenues in non-automotive markets that increased 14%, the result of strong growth in general industrial, semiconductor, datacom and commercial space markets. Our industry leading portfolio of power and data distribution, connectors, electrical centers and cable management solutions, combined with our global scale uniquely positions Aptiv to both design and manufacture optimized vehicle architecture systems for customers located anywhere in the world. In the quarter, we are awarded a high-voltage architecture award with a major European OEM, positioning us for substantial growth for this customer as they increase their electrification offerings over the next several years. The strength of our competitive position and the size of our funnel for new programs, gives us confidence in reaching over $4 billion of high-voltage electrification new business bookings during 2022. Moving to Slide 10, we continue to execute on our plan to build a business that delivers outsized results in any market. We have the right safe, green and connected product portfolio, the right regional and customer mix, the right cost structure and track record of execution and the financial flexibility that translates into a more resilient business model. We would hope COVID, its associated supply chain constraints and production disruptions would be in the rearview mirror by now, and that we would be experiencing steady economic growth, but macro headwinds and other challenges do remain. While these may persist for several more quarters, we expect to end the year with strong growth while also expanding margins. And I am confident we have taken appropriate actions that will allow us to finish the year on a strong footing with an even more resilient business model. Any improvement in the macros or the supply chain will present potential upside from here. With that, I will turn the call over to Joe to go through the financial highlights in more detail.
Joe Massaro:
Thanks, Kevin and good morning everyone. Starting with a recap of the second quarter financials on Slide 11, as Kevin highlighted, the business reported another quarter of strong growth over market despite the difficult operating environment. Revenues of $4.1 billion were up 9% with 8 points of growth above underlying vehicle production despite the prolonged COVID shutdowns in China. The China shutdowns, which disproportionately impacted our Shanghai base customers, negatively impacted our growth over market by approximately 1% in the quarter. Adjusted EBITDA and operating income were $365 million and $213 million respectively, reflecting flow-through on incremental volumes and positive price in the quarter offset by an increase in supply chain disruption costs related to the China shutdowns as well as higher levels of material inflation and the negative impact from FX and commodities, primarily related to the lower euro and changes in copper prices. Earnings per share in the quarter were $0.22, reflecting lower operating income levels while the EPS impact of higher interest costs was substantially offset by tax favorability. The equity income loss at Motional had a $0.26 negative impact. Lastly, operating cash flow was $95 million, with capital expenditures increasing $80 million year-over-year to $207 million for the quarter. Looking at the second quarter revenues in more detail on Slide 12. Increased volume was driven by strong growth over market across all regions. Pricing activity in the quarter was positive as we continue to make progress, recovering higher input costs from our customers and as noted, FX and commodity movements were net negative to revenue as compared to the prior year. From a regional perspective, North American revenues were up 21%, representing 9 points of growth over market, driven by continued strength in our Active Safety product line and our Signal and Power segment. In Europe, we saw outgrowth of 9% as our Active Safety and high-voltage product lines continue to benefit from strong demand. However, during the quarter, we did start to see decreases in European production schedules resulting from what we believe is a combination of supply chain constraints around semiconductors and macroeconomic concerns. As I will discuss in a moment, we have also seen a reduction in European customer schedules heading into the second half of the year. In China, revenues decreased 1.9% as a result of the shutdowns. However, we grew 7 points above the market, reflecting the strength of our underlying product portfolio as well as the resiliency of our Chinese operations. Moving to the segments on the next slide. Advanced Safety and User Experience revenues rose 7% in the quarter, reflecting 6 points of growth over underlying vehicle production. This includes growth in Active Safety, where revenues were up 21% despite the semiconductor supply shortages driven by program ramps in North America and Europe. User Experience was down for the quarter, primarily due to the impact of the China shutdowns and semiconductor constraints on certain larger programs. As we have previously discussed, the increases in semiconductor costs have significantly impacted the segment’s profitability. Segment adjusted EBITDA was $14 million, down $54 million compared to Q2 of last year. Volume growth contributed approximately $18 million of incremental earnings, representing a flow-through of 33% and price was a positive 1.1% versus prior year, offset by increased material input costs. Signal and Power Solutions revenues were up 10%, representing 9% growth over market. The market outperformance was driven by continued strength in several product lines, including high-voltage and engineered components. Also, our non-automotive product lines, including commercial vehicle, saw a revenue growth of 14% for the quarter. EBITDA in the segment was down $79 million in the quarter as flow-through on volume growth and the impact of positive pricing in the quarter were offset by higher disruption costs, the impact of FX and commodities and inflation. Turning now to Slide 14 and our updated 2022 macro outlook. We have lowered our estimate for global vehicle production to 81.5 million units on an active weighted basis, an increase of 3% over 2021. The reduction of approximately 1.6 million units from our prior estimate primarily reflects decreases in second half customer schedules in Europe. Smaller movements in North America and China schedules substantially offset and do not have a significant impact on our outlook. We believe scheduled reductions in Europe reflect both macroeconomic concerns as well as to strengths resulting from semiconductor availability. Although overall supply chain constraints have eased and second half European production is up year-over-year, subcomponent availability is a limiting factor on the pace of vehicle production ramps. We would note that our European production estimate does not reflect any prolonged industry shutdowns related to energy or natural gas conservation actions. We understand that there are contingency plans within Europe to slow or stop manufacturing operations for set periods of time, should there be a need to increase energy conservation heading into the winter. To-date, we have not received any direct communication from our customers regarding planned shutdowns and have not seen such actions reflect in customer schedules. In addition, our resiliency teams are taking proactive steps to help mitigate the potential impact on our operations and supply chain from potential shutdown of Aptiv’s European manufacturing sites and supply base. Slide 15 summarizes our updated 2022 outlook, which excludes the impact of the Wind River acquisition. In addition to the changes in European vehicle production, we have increased our estimate of the total price recovery we expect to receive in 2022 by $260 million, bringing the full year recovery to approximately $500 million. We’ve also updated our outlook for the lower euro and copper price, both of which are down significantly from the original guidance. As a result, we now expect revenue in the range of $17 billion to $17.3 billion, EBITDA and operating income are expected to be approximately $2.2 billion and $1.6 billion at the midpoint. We estimate adjusted earnings per share to be $3.30. This estimate includes the impact of the Wind River financing completed in February but excludes the Wind River acquisition itself. And we expect 2022 operating cash flow to be approximately $1.5 billion with CapEx continuing to be roughly 5% of sales. Slide 16 bridges our prior guidance to the current outlook. Starting with revenue, we have already discussed the progress we are making with price recoveries, offset by lower production volume of $505 million, the majority of which reflects the European scheduled reductions we previously discussed, partially offset by our growth over market. In addition, we are working plans to exit our Russian joint venture and have appropriately reflected this business as held for sale into U.S. GAAP. Our original guidance included revenues of approximately $75 million for the JV. The weaker euro and lower copper pricing represent another $480 million headwind to revenues. And as noted on the slide, this assumption is based on the euro at parity and a $3.40 copper price. Turning to adjusted operating income. The incremental price recovery effectively offsets the material cost inflation for the full year. And although further input cost increases are possible, we remain committed to offsetting such costs with additional customer price increases. The decremental flow through on the near-term schedule revisions of approximately 40% is consistent with prior short-term production slowdowns. And although significant to the revenue line, the FX and commodity moves have a relatively small impact on earnings. Lastly, we have included incremental supply chain disruption costs to our revised outlook, including the $30 million incurred in China in the second quarter. As Kevin noted, we have taken cost reduction actions that have an annualized benefit of $100 million and start to take effect in the second half of this year. In summary, although negatively impacted by vehicle production, other macro factors and supply chain constraints, we continue to drive strong top line growth and improved performance, with revenues of $17.15 billion, up 13% from 2021, operating income growth of 16% with 50 basis points of margin expansion, EPS growth of 8% and operating cash flow growth of 25%. Moving to Slide 17. We wanted to finish with a comparison of our first half to second half performance. Despite the difficult operating environment, forecasted vehicle production is higher in the second half of the year, and our leading technology portfolio will allow us to continue to drive growth over market. Flow-through on price recovery is higher in the second half of the year result of settlement timing with certain customers. The FX and commodity impact reflects the previously discussed changes in the euro and the copper pricing, and we expect strong performance primarily resulting from the improvement in supply chain disruption costs versus the first half and the benefit of certain cost savings actions that begin to take effect in Q3. Consistent with prior years, the second half operating margin is not indicative of a full year run rate as the fourth quarter is historically stronger given the timing of certain customer reimbursements and some regional trends. In addition, as noted, certain price recovery and cost-saving actions are higher in the second half versus a normalized annual run rate. For 2022, we would estimate the discrete second half benefit totals approximately $150 million, implying a more normalized operating margin rate of 10% to 10.5%. With that, I’d like to hand the call back to Kevin for his closing remarks.
Kevin Clark:
Thanks, Joe. Turning to Slide 18, I am happy with the bookings momentum, which will yield strong profitable growth in the years to come. We have work to do, but we’re making a lot of progress on several initiatives that will improve both earnings and cash flow in the near and long-term. As Joe discussed, we’re further optimizing our cost structure, increasing prices to offset inflation and attacking anything else that we can control or we can influence. I’m confident these actions will translate into a significant improvement in second half margins and cash flow and provide a solid action point as we move into 2023. More details around the progress on these initiatives will be presented when we provide 2023 guidance. But we clearly expect meaningful improvements in profitability during the coming months on relatively low vehicle production assumptions. Thanks, again, for your time. And let’s open up the line for Q&A.
Operator:
Thank you. [Operator Instructions] We will now take our first question from Joseph Spak with RBC Capital Markets.
Joseph Spak:
Thanks. Good morning, everyone. And thanks for the color. Can we start on Slide 17, just the first half or second half? Two things. One, the – what’s the confidence in sort of the 32% sort of incremental conversion given some recent performance? And then in the half-over-half performance and lower disruption costs of $166 million, I think that, right, $50 million from China, we know right off the bat. I guess what’s the rest? Is that some of those discrete recovery items you talked about or if maybe you could sort of help untangle those buckets.
Joe Massaro:
Sure. So Joe, it’s Joe. I’ll start. So yes, the 32% incremental, I mean, we have been running close to 30%. Obviously, more volume helps even ASUX on – at the volume level was 35% in Q1, 33% Q2. So at the volume level, the product lines are flowing well and continue to. High voltage is now a big contributor for SBS. So I would say that level of flow-through very consistent with what we’ve seen over the last few quarters. Couple of things there. On your $166 million, the question on the disruption costs, the performance and lower disruption costs, we’ve got about $80 million improvement first half to second half in disruption costs, $30 million is China, $50 million is just the overall improvement. And as you know, we’ve talked in the past that as the supply chain improves things like premium freight and some of those other costs will get better. So that’s $80 million in total with – including the $30 million and you’ve got about 40 plus – right around $40 million, $45 million of the cost saving actions hitting in the back half of the year that get us there. And then you’ve got additional performance improvements on some of the other initiatives we were working at as well as just little bit natural back half favorability we have in the business around things like NRE and some stronger regional performance in Q4.
Joseph Spak:
Okay. But you said those totaled $150 million. So I guess I am having a little bit trouble sort of understanding, I guess total into the $166 million unless I misunderstood the $150 million comment?
Joe Massaro:
You have $80 million from supply chain disruption, about $40 million to $45 million from the cost savings kicking in and then the other sort of Q4 strength is the difference.
Kevin Clark:
So volume, some timing as it relates to NRE and other items, Joe?
Joe Massaro:
Yes.
Joseph Spak:
Okay. I guess moving on, just on AS & UX. So it sounds like going forward, you get more immediate recoveries for some of those open market purchases on semis. And I think you said that was about a 300 basis point headwind here in the quarter. So as we sort of go through to the back half of the year – I mean I think in the past, you sort of said that can get back to mid-single digits or maybe even high single just in the back half. Is that – given everything else sort of going on and now that you’re giving recoveries, is that still sort of the second half level for that segment?
Kevin Clark:
Yes. We back half kind of achieved kind of mid to high single digits for back half and exit the year, including Q1, Q2 at kind of mid to slightly higher single-digit margins for ASUX.
Joseph Spak:
Okay, thanks. I will pass it on.
Operator:
We will go next to Rod Lache with Wolfe Research.
Rod Lache:
[Technical Difficulty] So there is no question of the secular growth. I just wanted to get a better sense of margin trajectory from here. You’ve previously talked about a bridge from your original margin targets, which I think were around 14%. And obviously, the numbers are pretty low right now, but I was hoping you can maybe just give us a high-level on how these margins recover [Technical Difficulty] sort of ZIP code. Presumably, part of that is a recovery to something like $90 million [Technical Difficulty] showed like $40 million of EBIT for the 1 million units of upside. And you’ve got growth over market [Technical Difficulty] add three over the next 2 years and 30%, but [Technical Difficulty] just additional color, either from the $1.6 billion [Technical Difficulty] or the $1.8 billion, $1.9 billion that you’re implying is kind of a normal run rate for the back half?
Kevin Clark:
Yes. I – listen, you’re breaking up a little bit. So just to make sure that I fully understand your question with respect to margin trajectory. Listen, I think as it relates to the business model and flow-through nothing has changed. We’re in a period of time, obviously, where we’re operating at much lower vehicle production, right? 81 million units. Material cost inflation is at record levels. We’re confident in our ability to get back to our old targets for overall margin performance. That’s going to happen through continued revenue growth, one; two, pushing through more material cost increases to customers; three, from a supplier management standpoint, we’re going through a significant amount of supply chain activity where we’re consolidating the [Technical Difficulty] we’re engineering out older solutions with new principally semiconductor chip solutions. We’re validating second sources so that we have more optionality or choices for both our customers as well as for ourselves in selecting products. And then we’re aggressively going after our own cost structure. So with all of those initiatives underway, we have confidence in our ability to ultimately hit those targets I’d say the aspect that right now is difficult to predict in this environment is the macro trends, especially as it relates to vehicle production what we see in Europe today versus what we’ve seen in Europe previously and continued strength in North America in a rebound – in continued rebound in China production.
Rod Lache:
So maybe just you can clarify for us, either from the full year guidance [Technical Difficulty] hopefully, you hear me, the $1.6 billion midpoint or you implied like $1.8 billion or $1.9 billion at a 10% to 10.5% sort of normal run rate in the back half. So what is the actual supply chain and COVID costs that you’re absorbing in those kinds [Technical Difficulty] or unusual engineering or absorbed material that has not yet been reimbursed?
Joe Massaro:
Yes. Right now, Rod the disruption costs with the increase in China and some assumption in the back half a little bit more is right around $300 million. Obviously, a lot of that has been incurred in the first half. As I just mentioned to Joe, we’re expecting an $80 million improvement first half to second half as that gets better. But round number is about $300 million. Inflation that is, I think, still sort of flowing through that we need to continue to get after is about $100 million. We’ve obviously got a lot of – probably got $0.5 billion of price built in. And from that perspective, of that $500 million of price built into outlook, we’ve got customer commitments for $400 million of it and $300 million already under PO. So obviously, as Kevin said, we just got a little bit of work to do to finalize that. But certainly, that’s a big step forward from where we were at the end of the first quarter from a customer perspective. And it actually we’ve been incorporated – we’ve seen a fair amount of inflation occur over the course of the second quarter. But to Kevin’s point, we’re more real time now in terms of passing through those price increases. So we’re able to start to get commitments from customers to offset that more quickly.
Rod Lache:
Okay. That’s helpful. And then just lastly, can you talk a little bit about Motional still a pretty big drag on the numbers, as you pointed out. I wanted to get a sense of your commitment to that. And how we should be thinking about that sort of a year or 2 from now? Should we be anticipating a larger drag or should we be assuming that something changes structurally in that kind of time frame?
Kevin Clark:
Well, yes, we are obviously still very committed to Motional. From a trajectory related to investment, it will continue at current sort of run rates. With respect to commercialization, I’m sure you’ve seen the UberEats announcement. You know that we have the Lyft relationship. You know that the Gen 2 vehicle beyond the Lyft network in 2023 fully autonomous. So from an overall technology and commercial standpoint, things remain on track. We continue to work closely with them on advancing our own internal ADAS solutions as well as providing them with certain product and software solutions that enable their autonomous driving stack. So they remain on track. We remain very committed. We will see a fully driverless vehicle on the Las Vegas Strip in 2023, and the team is working on a number of other commercial opportunities to bring into fold or to put the technology on. And we will continue to evaluate what we do from an overall monetization and funding standpoint over the medium and longer term.
Rod Lache:
Okay. Alright, thank you.
Operator:
We will go next to Emmanuel Rosner with Deutsche Bank.
Emmanuel Rosner:
Thank you very much. First question, I was hoping you can give us a little bit more color or a final point on what exactly you’ve been seeing in Europe? And what sort of like embedded in your outlook in terms of headwinds? I guess – I’m a bit surprised that going through this starting in so far, this hasn’t really been messaged from sort of like are there automotive players in terms of this level of risk? Certainly, if there is an energy crisis, this would be something else, but this is also not your base case scenario. You have some fairly major European automakers sounding more confident about the auto’s recovery in the second half. So just was hoping if you could just give us a little bit of a final point. Is it a function of your customer mix? Is it a function of some of the chips you buy or is it really sort of like you are seeing a slowdown in Europe?
Kevin Clark:
Yes, it’s Kevin, and Joe will provide additional detail. Listen, I think you’re hearing mix narrative on Europe, right? The reality is there are OEMs who have raised significant concerns as it relates to their outlook on the European macro situation and the impact on vehicle production. So I think it’s a general view in terms of what’s going on in Europe, and there may be different players who have different views. We obviously have concern. We obviously saw a significant downturn as the quarter rolled out or played out in the second quarter of this past year. So I’d say underlying macro is a big piece. There is some element that relates to specific semiconductor availability that impacted us during the quarter. So that has some impact, but we do think there is an underlying macro issue there that we need to keep our eye on, and that’s what’s reflected in our outlook for Europe which, Emmanuel, I think somewhat reflects that downside outlook that I just actually presented.
Joe Massaro:
Emmanuel, I’d just add a couple of things. One, the semiconductor, and the way the industry has been working through escalation, how you escalate with customers and how the customers engage with the semiconductor companies, it’s pretty clear it’s just not us. It’s the customers are raising concerns. We know they are talking to our suppliers and more broadly around that and escalating more issues than our availability. So I would say it’s not something specific to Aptiv. And as I mentioned in sort of the June update, one of the things that’s somewhat hard to tell at the moment is the split between semiconductor availability and macro. One of the things we are seeing is to the extent we ended the period with, what I’ll call back orders, we are not seeing those back orders rescheduled into the second half of the year, right. So, it depends on what you want to call that, that’s inherently on a full year basis of schedule call down. They are not looking to pick up the extra volume in a lot of cases in the back half that would have come from some of the supply chain constraints in the first half. So, we are seeing that. We are also seeing schedule reductions. Again, we don’t think they are related to energy shutdowns at this point for my comments. But we do have a number of European OEs that are lowering schedules for the back half of the year at this moment.
Emmanuel Rosner:
Okay. I appreciate the color. And then just following up on this and it’s a very big picture question as I am still trying to understand really the outlook you are describing. But essentially, if I look at your new outlook versus old one on Slide 16, basically the biggest driver of the lower operating income is essentially the market and primarily in Europe, as you sort of like described. But at the same time, you are still calling for a fairly strong second half, and I would argue that the miss versus expectation prior the action happened in the second quarter, where this sort of maybe operating income was maybe $100 million below what the Street looked at. And so it seems like on a full year basis, you are describing something that the macro level was getting worse in the second half. But in terms of your own dynamics and macroeconomics, it seems like the second half is supposed to be actually particularly strong while a lot of the headwinds have already happened. So, can you just go back over this and explain how you see things?
Kevin Clark:
Yes. I don’t think we are saying it’s entirely the second half is getting worse. I think we are saying vehicle production, as Joe said, on a sequential basis and year-over-year in the second half will be better. Europe will be weak, okay. So – and we believe you will continue to see strength in North America and in China. There is a second half impact versus prior expectation as it relates to semiconductor chips supply availability. So, that puts some downward pressure on the amount of that sequential increase H1 to H2, but we are going to see improvement. Disruptions will be down based on increased semiconductor availability. We are expecting inflation actually to be muted second half versus first half, again, on a sequential basis. So, it won’t be a headwind like it was in the first half of the year. Significant increase in cost recoveries from customers that Joe walked through and then the benefit from incremental cost reductions or cost actions that took place in the first half of the year. So, Emmanuel, I would characterize it as our outlook for the second half of the year is not as strong as it was previously. From an overall volume standpoint, there are some markets that continue to be strong. Europe, we think will be very weak. And there are certain actions that were taken in the first half of the year that will flow through in the second half as well as certain things such as disruptions and inflation that will either be a tailwind in the second half or at least not a headwind.
Joe Massaro:
Yes. And Emmanuel, I think I understand your question, it’s sort of the high level when you take a step back, when you look at the individual regions, that’s why we are calling out Europe. China was obviously down due to the shutdowns. We are actually making up a little less than half of the missed revenue from China in the back half of the year. That’s being offsetting some of the deterioration in Europe. North America is a little stronger in the back half of the year than we originally forecasted. But again, being offset by Europe. So, I appreciate the comment. But I think when you look by region, there is either sort of missed revenue being made up for in China Q2 versus H2 and some strengthening in North America, but the downside is really within the European revenue number.
Emmanuel Rosner:
Yes. Thanks so much for all the color.
Operator:
We will go next to Chris McNally with Evercore.
Chris McNally:
Thanks and so sorry to be – it’s going to be a little repetitive. But I just wanted to kind of put together some of the comments and the questions that have been asked so far. So, specifically on Europe, you are saying weak second half from your down 5% comment, most people are getting something like down production 8% to 10% second half over first half. Is that sort of aligned with what you have? And then obviously, the same for China, I am also getting down on second half over first half, something like 2%, 3% when forecasters have up 20% to 25%. So, I just want to make sure we are all on the same page here because I think we all will be asking the volume question over and over again.
Joe Massaro:
Yes. So, for the full year, we have Europe at this point down 5%, which is a big move. It would have been up 10% in the original guide. So, we have it down 5%. China, we have down 4%. We had that down in the original guide, about 1.5%. Chris, so like I said, we are seeing some recovery. From a revenue perspective, a little less than half of the revenues missed in the first half, we were scheduled to make up in the second half in China. Vehicle production is a little less than that. Obviously, given our growth over market will run higher on revenue. And then North America is up approximately 10%. We added up approximately 9% in the prior guide.
Chris McNally:
Yes. I guess Joe, the main question and respecting that Aptiv has good insight into production, you are on – one of every three vehicles, right, on electrical. I guess this is a question of some of these – the weakness that you are talking about when will sort of the ground truth come out, is this Q3 where you think everyone else comes to you, but – I will echo what Emmanuel just said is you are materially weaker than – forget about the forecast is, right? They are always wrong. But everyone else sort of right now on Europe and China in the second half. So, I am just curious on that timing. When do you think you will be proven right or others proven wrong? Is that in the next couple of months?
Kevin Clark:
Yes. Listen, we – I think we operate off of what we receive from our customers. Those – that is what we use to forecast over a three-month or six-month timeframe. So, what we are signaling by region is what we are seeing in terms of build schedules. There are others who use sources like IHS to build their operating or financial forecast. We use that for the long-term. We don’t use that for near-term where we have actual build schedules. So, our view is you will see that play out during Q3 and Q4.
Chris McNally:
Okay. Clear. Maybe then and Joe if we could follow-up on Slide 17, obviously, the performance bucket, the $166 million is a big aspect of getting to the second half margins. Can you just – I think the question was asked slightly different from RBC. But how much of that would you say is sort of in the bag, something like COVID in China, you know what that disruption cost was in Q2 and you are assuming it doesn’t come back. Could you just kind of walk through to your confidence in that $166 million number, which would help us get to the sort of 12% plus margin number in the second half?
Joe Massaro:
Yes. So, $166 million, you look at $80 million is improvement in COVID and supply chain disruption costs first half to second half, 30% is China going away – $30 million is China going away. So, $30 million of the $80 million is China going away. The other $50 million is a decrease in run rate from the first half, which again, the world – there is a lot that could still happen in the world. But based on what we have seen from the level of supply chain disruption, trends in premium freight, trends in labor and downtime, yes, we obviously feel confident enough to put that $50 million in the forecast. So, that’s $80 million of that. $40 million plus is cost savings. So, those are basically headcount that’s come out over the course of the second quarter. That will not be there in the third quarter and fourth quarter in the back half. So, high confidence there. The balance is what I will call sort of the normal uplift in back half performance in the businesses. Things like customer NRE, there is some strength in trial and manufacturing performance in the back half of the year that just comes with some of the sort of how volume flows through the plants and particularly in China at that time of the year. So, those are very consistent trends we see every Q4. Nothing to do with COVID, nothing to do with supply chain disruption, not new, that sort of normal business trend. So, obviously, fair degree of confidence in that number to put it into the forecast. I understand what was big on the slide, but…
Kevin Clark:
Chris, it’s Kevin. I would say very, very high level of confidence in all those cost items that have executed or we have already executed or we are executing. Joe said, there is another roughly $100 million of price that we need to go after in the back half of the year. But we have enough confidence to put that into the forecast. We have made a lot of progress year-to-date. We have brought the vehicle production outlook down to what we see from a customer schedule standpoint. So, high level of confidence in where that sits. What could be – a potential take would be does the energy issue in Europe further impact vehicle production and bring those levels down beyond what we assume, that would be a headwind. On the flip side, to the extent we see stronger growth in North America or in China, or we see a free up or additional supply of select semiconductor parts that would be a tailwind. So, where we settled, we have a very high level of confidence.
Chris McNally:
Okay. Thanks team. I will follow-up on the rest offline.
Kevin Clark:
Thanks Chris.
Operator:
We will go next to David Kelley with Jefferies.
David Kelley:
Good morning Kevin and Joe. Thanks for taking my questions. Maybe just following up on the semi issue discussion. You noted the broker by step up. I am assuming some of that was China disruptions. But if we take a step back, I guess, are you seeing the number of problem categories shrink at this point? And maybe the shortages are increasingly isolated, but still meaningful where we have them, or is this kind of a broad step back in component availability that’s taken place over the last couple of months?
Kevin Clark:
No. By and large, availability is improving. We have one semiconductor supplier that, I would say, has been a challenge for us as well as others. But I believe that’s been an ongoing issue. But overall, we are seeing the market and availability actually improve. We have seen inflation increase, Joe talked about that. That’s something we are working through as it relates to resourcing and pushing increased prices to customers. But overall balance of availability, the trend has been positive in general.
David Kelley:
Okay. That’s helpful. And then in light of the schedule reductions, you held the high-voltage growth outlook here. So, maybe if you could speak to the customer prioritization there versus component availability, specifically in EVs? And Joe, you mentioned that the strong flow-through you are seeing from high voltage. So, how should we think about margin contribution from that relative outperformance?
Kevin Clark:
Yes. I think no change relative to what we have talked about, Joe certainly has talked about in the past, still see very strong demand for high-voltage electrification solutions. All of our customers are accelerating their plans as it relates to battery electric vehicles. And the margin profile of that business continues to be very attractive, certainly higher than the average. The weighted average from an SPS overall margin standpoint.
Joe Massaro:
Yes. I think David, from a margin contribution perspective, we talked about it before, as it hit sort of $1 billion, the high-voltage product line sort of got to segment average and would expect that to move up over time as you get to sort of the $1.5 billion, $2 billion mark, SPS segment average.
David Kelley:
Okay. Got it. Thanks guys.
Kevin Clark:
Thank you.
Operator:
We will go next to Itay Michaeli with Citi.
Itay Michaeli:
Great. Thanks. Good morning everyone. Just two questions for me. First, Joe, going back to the go-forward margin discussion, I think you mentioned second half normalized rate of 10% to 10.5%. Is that a good base to think about for the go-forward kind of normalized Aptiv incremental margins maybe with some benefit from the restructuring? And second, Kevin, I think in your prepared remarks, you mentioned that the bookings were coming at or above the long-term margin framework. And I was hoping you can maybe elaborate a bit more on that and kind of what you are seeing in the terms and conditions of new bookings?
Joe Massaro:
Yes. Itay, I will start. We – yes, that was a very specific comment that 10%, 10.5% because we get that question a lot of we do run hot in the back half of the year from a margin perspective for a few sort of normal business things. So, we wanted to provide people with what we thought a better baseline was on second half and sort of taking out the unique second half attributes.
Kevin Clark:
And as it relates to new programs, Itay, we have a process as we pursue and ultimately contract on these programs where we roll through the current environment from an inflation pricing cost standpoint. The agreements or contracts are structured in a way where we have in the current environment, more flexibility to change out components or alternatives and far more flexibility to push price through to customers – increased costs through to customers.
Itay Michaeli:
Got it. That’s helpful. Thank you.
Operator:
We will go next to John Murphy as our last question from Bank of America.
John Murphy:
Good morning. I will ask two quick ones here, guys. Just I mean first, we think it’s about Slide 17 here, Joe. You mentioned the 10% to 10.5% you just alluded to with Itay as the somewhat normalized second half margin. If we think about everything that’s going on in the world, I mean forget about sort of the walks, you are still at close to recessionary level volumes. Cost or inflation on raws is still near multi-decade highs. You have supply chain disruptions, you have shortages of semiconductors. The fact that you are putting up a 10% to 10.5% sort of normalized or even 11.9%, as you say you might print, I mean shouldn’t that give you actual really good confidence in the long-term targets as opposed to some skepticism? I think there is a lot of people worried about these short-term moving parts, which we have to worry about. But it just seems like that kind of basis should give you a lot more confidence in your long-term targets, not skepticism.
Joe Massaro:
Yes. I will start, Kevin can chime in. I mean listen, we are I don’t disagree with that comment, John. I mean we are working through a lot, and I understand there is a lot going on, and we are sort of in year three of various forms of disruption. But I think we are – as I mentioned at the end of my comments, I think to be able to grow at the rate we are growing, there is – the margin expansion we are seeing, flow-through on volumes remain very strong and the prices we talked about, the price discussion with customers has been a bit of a balancing act in terms of making sure we maintain the relationships and can still win business while protecting Aptiv. So, it’s hard with everything going on. But I mean that was certainly the intentions of my final comments there in the prepared remarks, I think where we view the business given the conditions as performing well. With that said, obviously, you know us, we would want to do better, and we will work to do better as we go into next year. But there is progress. There is a lot of progress through difficult environment. I don’t know, Kevin if…
Kevin Clark:
Listen, John, I think Joe hit the nail on the head. Listen, I think the team has made a lot of progress and is performing well in a challenging environment. However, to Joe’s point, we don’t make excuses. And we want to make sure that we are on a good exit point for 2022, so that we are able to deal with any other challenges that appear in 2023. And if they don’t, you see significant revenue growth and flow-through on that incremental volume. And we continue to work on our cost structure. We continue to work on our product portfolio and our value proposition to our customers. We would tell you the pull from our customers in terms of our solutions, whether it’s smart vehicle architecture, high-voltage electrification, and we would tell you now increasingly request or opportunities to present software solutions. All of that is highly attractive. But we are dealing with the near-term macro challenges, and that’s what we need to deal with.
John Murphy:
Okay. And then just a second question real quick on the bookings, which didn’t get a lot of airtime here in Q&A, pretty massive. I am just curious, is there anything specifically or unique that you think was going on, or should we start thinking about a run rate that is something more like this? And what’s the booking to realization sort of timing? Has that actually sped up versus history?
Joe Massaro:
It’s probably sped up a little, John. It’s probably those bookings directly correlate to some of the advanced development programs we have had on smart vehicle architecture with what we say one of the leading OEMs as it relates to rethinking vehicle architecture and the software-defined vehicle. So, it’s the benefit of all the work that we have done in the past. We think it’s likely there is more to come. They are on a fast path to get that on vehicles launched over the next couple of years. So, what used to be maybe a 4-year sort of cycle is now probably closer to a 3-year cycle. We are excited about it. And again, we think it reflects the benefit of our broader portfolio. And ultimately, we are going to be able to drag with its software, which again, is higher margin and higher growth.
John Murphy:
Great. Thank you very much.
Operator:
At this time, I will pass on the call back to Kevin Clark.
Kevin Clark:
Okay. Thank you very much, everyone, for your time today. We really appreciate it. Take care.
Operator:
That completes our call. Thank you for joining.
Operator:
Good day and welcome to Aptiv's First Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. My name is Marion and I'll be your conference operator today. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speakers' remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session. Thank you. Chris Tillett, Aptiv's Director of Investor Relations, you may begin your conference.
Christopher Tillett:
Thank you, Marion. Good morning. And thank you for joining Aptiv's first quarter 2022 earnings conference call. The press release and related tables along with the slide presentation can be found at the Investor Relations portion of our website at aptiv.com. Today's review of our financials exclude amortization, restructuring and other special items, and will address the continuing operations of Aptiv. The reconciliations between GAAP and non-GAAP measures for our Q1 financials as well as for our full-year financials, as well as our full-year 2022 outlook are included at the back of the slide presentation and the earnings press release. During today's call, we will be providing certain forward-looking information, which reflects Aptiv's current view of future financial performance and may be materially different for reasons that we cite in our Form 10-K and other SEC filings, including uncertainties posed by the COVID-19 pandemic, the ongoing supply chain disruptions and the conflict between Ukraine and Russia. Joining us today will be Kevin Clark, Aptiv's Chairman and CEO, and Joe Massaro, CFO and Senior Vice President of Business Operations. Kevin will provide a strategic update on the business and Joe will cover the financial results in more detail before we open the call to Q&A. And with that, I'd like to turn the call over to Kevin Clark.
Kevin Clark:
Thank you, Chris. And thanks, everyone, for joining us this morning. Beginning on slide 3, Aptiv had a solid start to the year showcasing our ability to continue to outperform in a volatile market. Revenues totaled $4.2 billion, up 4% from the prior year, driven by strong demand across our portfolio of safe green and connected technologies. Operating income and earnings per share totaled $324 million and $0.63 cents, respectively, reflecting continued revenue growth despite a decline in vehicle production in the quarter, more than offset by material inflation and increased operating costs associated with the ongoing supply chain disruption. The highlights for the quarter include 11 points of growth over underlying vehicle production, with all regions reporting strong growth over market, driven by continued growth in our key product lines, which I'll touch on in more detail on the next slide. New business bookings reached $6.1 billion, the result of growing demand for our portfolio of industry-leading advanced technologies. As the world continues to grapple with the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic and the related supply chain challenges, Aptiv's business has not been immune to the effects of the various disruptions. We continue to monitor the situation in Ukraine and lockdowns in China, which will impact the balance of the year, but at this point in time, we remain confident in our full-year outlook. Our team is doing an exceptional job executing in a very fluid environment, working to mitigate the challenges we're facing and our sustainable double-digit growth over market and pace of new business bookings during the quarter are a testament to our ability to continue to deliver for our customers. Turning to slide 4. Revenue growth across our key product lines continue to outpace the market. In our ASUX segment, Aptiv safety revenue growth remained strong, up 9% during the quarter, driven by the continued penetration of advanced ADAS systems. And user experience revenues increased 10%, the result of the launch of key infotainment programs in Europe and North America. In our Signal and Power Solutions segment, high voltage revenues increased 10% during the quarter, driven by the accelerated launch of electric vehicle programs, particularly in Asia and Europe. And our non-automotive revenues, which now represent roughly 16% of Aptiv sales increased 5%, the result of strong growth in the general industrial, semiconductor and datacom markets. A portfolio of advanced technologies aligned to the safe, green and connected megatrends has uniquely positioned Aptiv to solve our customers' biggest challenges, which we've capitalized on to increase our market share with new customers and expand our share of wallet with existing customers. Moving to slide 5, consumer demand remains very strong, requiring us to proactively manage through the ongoing supply chain disruptions, while also offsetting the increased material inflation. As I mentioned already, our team is doing an excellent job confronting these issues head on. They've taken several actions to offset the headwinds related to macro factors, including further reducing overhead costs, while selectively investing in initiatives related to high voltage electrification, smart vehicle architecture, and software development. Our recently announced agreement to acquire Wind River, which we expect to close mid-year has translated into several direct OEM engagements, including the commercial agreement with Hyundai that was announced earlier this week. We're also working closely with our supplier partners and our customers on several product redesign initiatives to both mitigate parts shortages and offset material price increases, over 50 of which have already been implemented and roughly another 50 will be implemented during the balance of the year. Lastly, we're making progress on other cost recovery initiatives, including price reductions from our suppliers and commercial recoveries from our customers, which have a more meaningful impact during the back half of the year. We continue to confront the supply chain and inflation challenges and are focused on strengthening the underlying resiliency of our business model and reaping the full benefits once these headwinds subside. As shown on slide 6, first quarter bookings totaled $6.1 billion, the highest first quarter level over the last several years. Advanced Safety and User Experience bookings totaled $800 million for the quarter, in line with our expectations, representing the timing of customer program awards during the year. Notable customer awards during the quarter include a central vehicle controller for a European OEM, [Technical Difficulty] new business bookings for the ASUX segment for the balance of the year remains very strong, with several ADAS, user experience and smart vehicle architecture program scheduled to be awarded. And the second quarter is off to a strong start, with over $3 billion of ADAS awards and a central vehicle control award with lifetime revenues totaling $1.5 billion. Bookings for our Signal and Power Solutions segment reached $5.3 billion during the quarter, including $1.2 billion in high voltage electrification. The strength of our competitive position and the size of our funnel for high voltage electrification programs gives us confidence in reaching over $4 billion of customer awards during 2022. Our strong track record of new business bookings is proof that our portfolio of advanced technologies is perfectly aligned to the areas of significant growth in vehicle content. And our unique position as the only provider of both the brain and nervous system of the vehicle is presenting Aptiv with opportunities to capitalize on the acceleration towards the electrified software defined vehicle. Turning to the highlights from our Advanced Safety and User Experience segment on slide 7. Revenues for the first quarter increased 7%, 14 points over underlying vehicle production, driven by strong product line growth in both active safety and user experience. As I referenced on the last slide, during the first quarter, we received the new business award from a leading German OEM for a central vehicle controller on the next wave of its leading EV platforms. This award is another strategic win for our portfolio of smart vehicle architecture solutions, and is a key building block for this OEM's new electric vehicle platform, which is fully aligned with Aptiv's design for smart vehicle architecture. Moving to slide 8. First quarter revenues in our Signal and Power Solutions segment rose 2%, 9 points better than the declining global vehicle production, reflecting increased demand for high voltage architecture solutions and continued strong revenue growth in non-automotive markets. Our industry-leading portfolio of power and data distribution, connectors, electrical centers and cable management solutions, combined with our global scale, uniquely positioned Aptiv to both design and manufacture optimized vehicle architecture systems for customers located virtually anywhere in the world. And as a proof point, a leading global electric vehicle OEM awarded Aptiv an additional vehicle architecture program to support the further expansion into Europe. In addition, we continue to support the growth of a German OEM's electric vehicle platform and the award of this charging device underscores our strong market position in electric vehicle charging. The first quarter's new business bookings validates the value we bring with our system level approach to optimizing vehicle architecture, which reduces vehicle weight and mass, thereby reducing costs for our OEM customers. We remain confident that our competitive position, combined with the accelerating demand for electrified vehicles, positions Aptiv for profitable growth in the Signal and Power Solutions segment for the next several years. Turning to slide 9. Despite the current challenges, we remain focused on increasing the underlying resiliency of our business model to deliver sustainable value creation. Although the macroenvironment remains very challenging and difficult to navigate, we continue to focus on increasing the flexibility of our operating model by leveraging our advanced technologies for both the brain and nervous system of the vehicle, providing more content for the software defined vehicles of the future. Deploying capital to further strengthen our portfolio of safe, green and connected technologies, including expanding our portfolio of software solutions to meet the increasing needs of our customers, and intelligently diversifying our revenue base into less cyclical non-automotive markets, which will better position Aptiv for value creation from the acceleration of the trend towards fully electrified software defined vehicle, increased market share gains, and continued operational efficiency and cost structure optimization. This translates into revenue growth, margin expansion and cash flow generation, which can be reinvested in the business to create an even more resilient business model. With that, I'll turn the call over to Joe to go through the financial highlights in more detail.
Joseph Massaro :
Thanks, Kevin. And good morning, everyone. Starting with a recap of the quarter on slide 10. The business generated strong top line performance, while successfully navigating through several industrywide operating challenges. Revenues of $4.2 billion were up 4%, 11% ahead of vehicle production, which was down 7% in the quarter. Adjusted EBITDA and operating income were $478 million and $324 million, respectively, reflecting strong flow through and higher volumes and the benefit of savings and cost reduction actions. Price downs that were effectively flat year-over-year and the negative impact of supply chain disruption costs, FX and commodities and material inflation. Earnings per share in the quarter were $0.63. Lastly, we had operating cash outflows of $202 million, driven primarily by our decision to maintain a higher working capital investment to help, in part, mitigate the impact of supply chain disruptions. Capital expenditures were $247 million, driven by investments to support program launches across our key product lines. Looking at the first quarter revenues in more detail on slide 11, we saw growth over market in all regions despite production disruptions in Europe from the Russia Ukrainian war, as well as COVID related shutdowns in China, which impacted the final weeks of the quarter. The FX commodity impact on the top line was minimal as the passthrough of the higher copper prices for our customers offset the impact of the lower euro. As I previously noted, the negative impact of price downs was minimal, almost flat on a year-over-year basis. From a regional perspective, North America revenue was up 7% on an adjusted basis or 8% above vehicle production, driven by our active safety, high voltage and non-automotive product line. European growth above market was 13% despite a contraction in vehicle production of 18% in the quarter, led by strength in our active safety and high voltage product lines, as well as the launch of several user experience programs. And lastly, in China, revenues were up 14% over a flat market, as both segments posted strong double-digit growth despite the impact of COVID disruptions in late March. Moving to the segment recap on slide 12. Advanced Safety and User Experience revenues increased 7% in the quarter, reflecting 14% growth over underlying vehicle production, including growth in both active safety and user experience. As we've discussed, the increase in material input costs, primarily semiconductors, has negatively impacted segment profitability. Segment adjusted operating income was $16 million in the quarter, down $52 million compared to Q1 of last year. Volume growth contributed approximately $25 million of adjusted OI in the period, reflecting flow through of 35%, and annual price downs were effectively flat to prior year. A reduction in supply chain disruption costs and the benefit of higher performance and cost actions partially offset the impact of the previously mentioned material inflation. We are actively pursuing multiple paths to mitigate and/or offset the material inflation costs impacting ASUX. In addition to commercial and pricing negotiations with our customers, we are also pursuing product engineering and redesign. A number of these activities involved the redesign of products to open up multiple supplier sourcing opportunities, primarily as it relates to semiconductors, including the sourcing of semiconductors from newer market entrants in all regions where we operate. Signal and Power Solutions revenues were up 2%, reflecting 9 points of growth over market, with meaningful outgrowth in all regions. We continue to see strength in high voltage as well as our engineered components product lines, and the segment's reported growth comes despite a difficult year-over-year comparison, given the H1 2021 distribution channel replenishment we discussed last year. Adjusted operating income in the segment was down $98 million as the flow through and incremental volumes and the benefits of improved performance and cost saving actions were offset by COVID and supply chain disruption costs, as well as the impact of FX, commodity and material inflation, primarily copper passthrough timing and resins. The full-year outlook included on slide 13 remains unchanged from our original guidance provided in February. As noted in February, the full-year outlook excludes Wind River as that transaction is expected to close mid-year. We expect the Wind River transaction to be neutral to 2022 earnings per share. We believe the material inflation and continuous supply chain constraints were substantially addressed in our original guidance. And although we are seeing current year increases to material costs, the actions we're taking with our customers, supply base and cost structure are helping to offset the impact of these additional increases As it relates to the more recent 2022 disruptions, we believe the second quarter will be significantly impacted by the COVID related lockdowns in China. We are not providing a formal guide for the second quarter. However, we do believe it is possible that the second quarter is at or slightly below the first quarter revenue and earnings levels. As it relates to China, assuming the COVID-related lockdowns ease during the second quarter, we currently expect that market to recover lost vehicle production in the second half of the year. With respect to Europe, as we have previously discussed, we have mitigated our direct production exposure to Ukraine. And barring a broadening of the conflict, we do not expect our other European production facilities to be impacted. Although we have seen softening in European vehicle production to date, we believe that lost production will either be rescheduled for later in the year in Europe and/or offset by stronger North American production. Accordingly, we continue to expect revenue in the range of $17.75 billion to $18.15 billion, up 15% at the midpoint compared to 2021. This assumes global vehicle production growth of approximately 6%, with some shifting between regions from our original forecast. EBITDA and operating income are expected to be approximately $2.6 billion and $1.9 billion at the midpoint. We continue to estimate adjusted earnings per share to be $4.35 for 2022, an increase of 42% over the comparable 2021 total. And we expect 2022 operating cash flow to be just over $2 billion with CapEx at approximately 5% of sales. Moving to slide 14, before I turn the call back to Kevin, we've received several questions recently regarding the long-term 2022 forecast we provided at our 2019 Investor Day. And we thought it would be helpful to lay out the changes relative to where we are today. As you may recall, our long-term forecasts provided in 2019 estimated 2022 revenues of $17.5 billion, a 14.2% adjusted operating margin and assumed global vehicle production of approximately 98 million units. When adjusting for current vehicle production of 83 million units, the forecast would now be $15.2 billion of revenue, with an operating margin of 12.6%. Growth over market contribution was significantly higher than our 2019 forecast, driven by the strength of our key product lines, offsetting about 70% of the impact from the decrease in vehicle production. The combination of price, performance, labor economics and investment are also favorable to the original long-term forecast. As a result, after adjusting for the change in global vehicle production, the combined impact of COVID and supply chain disruption costs, and recent material inflation total the difference between our current outlook and the prior long-term forecast for 2022. While we are proud of our disciplined revenue growth and operating performance over the past several years, we understand the importance of long-term margin expansion. We are confident that the COVID and supply chain disruption costs, currently estimated at approximately $250 million, will abate as conditions normalize. And as we have discussed, we are laser focused on developing offsets and mitigating the impact of material inflation over the next couple of years. In addition, we believe Aptiv's underlying cost structure is well situated to drive incremental margins from the recovery in global vehicle production over the coming years. With that, I'd like to hand the call back to Kevin for his closing remarks.
Kevin Clark :
Thanks, Joe. I'll wrap up on slide 15 before we open up for questions. Our commercial momentum is stronger than ever as we're able to leverage our unique brain and nervous system portfolio of advanced technologies to accelerate our customers' path to the fully electrified software defined vehicle of the future. We continue to closely monitor the current macros, including supply chain disruptions and material inflation, as well as the more recent war in Ukraine and lockdowns in China. Our team is doing an excellent job executing in this challenging environment, keeping our customers' production lines connected, while at the same time implementing initiatives to optimize our cost structure to help offset the macro headwinds, all while we continue to invest in the development of advanced technologies, which we're confident will further enhance our competitive position and increase the resiliency of our business model. Thanks again for your time. And let's open up the line for Q&A.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions]. We will take the first question from Emmanuel Rosner from Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.
Emmanuel Rosner:
First one is on the material side? Can you provide some numbers and a little bit of color around what was the material pressure in the quarter on a net basis? What are you expecting for the full year and how that compares with previous expectations?
Kevin Clark:
On the inflation aspect of it, Emanuel?
Emmanuel Rosner:
Yes, it is.
Joseph Massaro:
That's total, in the quarter, call it, right around $80 million for the entire business on a year-over-year basis. So, that's the increase. Just the way the price increases started to come in, over the course of last year, we really didn't see price increases in Q1. Those tended to start at the end of Q2 and then build through the balance of the year, right? So, the year-over-year is going to be higher in Q1, just given that we – in the Q1 of last year, it's more of a constraint issue than it was constraints and inflation that we saw in the back half year. As you can see, we're obviously doing a lot on a net basis to offset those costs. We talked about the original guide, there being about $200 million, a little over – $205 million of net inflation that had sort of fallen through to the bottom of the guide that we were working to offset. Round numbers, that is still really what we're dealing with. As I mentioned in my prepared comments, we have had some price increases flow through during the current period. But we've also been able to do a lot on the pricing side. So, at the moment, we're still really dealing with that net number, which was some of the longer term product redesign, chip swap out type initiatives that we needed to do so. Again, I think as Kevin mentioned in his comments, the team across the board, the sourcing, engineering team, the business team is doing a really good job of holding the line at this point.
Emmanuel Rosner:
Looking forward, I guess the final slide comparing with the previous framework, even 2019, seems to be somewhat optimistic around the ability to recover or eliminate or offset some of this pressure in the midterm. I guess, what would be the process for this? Are there any additional recoveries you can have? Is some of it contractual? Is it negotiation? Is it mostly on the cost side? I guess what would be required to sort of eventually claw back this margin pressure?
Joseph Massaro:
It's exactly what we've been saying really for the past two or three quarters now. There's nothing's changed. There's obviously commercial discussions with our customers around recoveries and price, which you've seen us execute on in Q1. Continual pushback on the supply base, just around the reasonableness of the overall cost increases and the availability of parts. That is now, I would say, moving in, as I just mentioned, to a redesign effort where if we can't get to reasonable economics with a supplier, we are looking at how to swap them out or at least introduce competition into that sourcing. And I think there's a number of – even in semiconductors, a number of what I'll call newer market entrants across the world that are going to provide some opportunity for that, and we're actively pursuing that on all fronts. And then, part of it – and again, we've had this muscle in the company for the last – as you know, for the past five or six years. We're maniacal on the cost structure. And we're, again, continuing to look at the cost structure and find ways – if we can't directly mitigate the cost increases, find other ways through manufacturing or SG&A performance to help offset them. So, I don't think those levers have changed really over the past three or four quarters.
Kevin Clark:
You covered it. I guess the only thing I'd add to Joe's point is there's a proportion of – when you look at that performance, inflation, there's a portion of the supply chain disruption, the COVID costs that, as things loosen up a bit, would normally fall away. To Joe's point, the more challenging areas in and around material inflation, and that's an area where we have a high level of confidence based on our competitive position and our capabilities to be able to offset, whether that be through negotiations or through product redesign efforts.
Operator:
We will now take the next question from John Murphy from Bank of America.
John Murphy:
Just to maybe follow up on this. The idea that the headwinds have grown so dramatically since [indiscernible] able to hold it – I understand that there's lots of actions and negotiations that are going on with your partners below you and above you. Could this kind of lead to much higher incremental or margins as the world normalizes and stabilizes over time or is there some of this that is somewhat temporary in dealing with the volatility at the moment?
Joseph Massaro:
It's going to evolve. As I said in my earlier comments, it's over the next couple of years as it relates to material inflation, right? It's not going to go away tomorrow. But I do think, at least on the material inflation side, the COVID and supply chain disruption costs, as we talked about, those should abate as things normalize, so that'll be helpful to margin. I quantify that at about $250 million. We've bumped that up a little bit from the original, just given some of the disruption in Q2 in China, but still within a manageable number. And it's non-structural, these types of sort of transaction costs that occur when you have to close plants quickly and such. So, as those costs abate, and I think and – when you take a step, and this is why we get a lot of questions on that slide 14 in the deck and why we wanted to put the numbers out there, I think when you have an appreciation for the fact that our original 2022 estimate was at 98 million units of production and we're now operating at 83 million, round numbers, as we start to work our way back there, structurally, the business, I think, has sped up very well from a footprint perspective, from a workforce cost perspective to drive incrementals as volumes go up. You never want to be a business that's completely relying, obviously, on volumes to expand margins, but it's going to be a positive tailwind over the next couple of years as we start to get back into the 90s on vehicle production.
Kevin Clark:
John, I think if you a look at the mix of business and the flow on the mix of business, it's more profitable today, when you exclude the material inflation and supply disruption than what it was back in 2019. So, to the extent you get normalization from an inflation standpoint and stabilization of the supply chain, you should see improved incrementals and lower decrementals, quite frankly, [indiscernible]?
John Murphy:
It just seems like you might be more of a coiled spring. I wouldn't put those words in your mouth. But I might say that, then we might be appreciated on the margin recovery as the world normalizes. That's some time off. Right? We all know that. Just a second question. On the business bookings, you kind of highlight there, record levels. There's a lot going on in the world. And it's kind of a similar question where everybody's a little bit distracted, but you're winning business like crazy. And that's even before Wind River comes on. I'm just curious, is this a timing issue? Or there's just a surge of new programs coming, which it seems like is the case, you're driving those wins. And then also, as we think about Wind River coming on, how do you think about the competitive set or you'd be going up against when you put Wind River products and software in front of your customers? Is it other suppliers or is it internal? And really, what's the competitive set as you go to market there?
Kevin Clark:
It sounds like there's two parts to your question. So, as you look at where we are from a funnel standpoint, new business opportunities standpoint, we did attribute it to a couple of factors. One, when you think about our product portfolio and what we refer to as a brain and nervous system of the vehicle, the industry is aligned and virtually all OEMs out there are rethinking vehicle architecture and are on a path towards a software defined vehicle. So, we're seeing an acceleration of that trend that given the nature of our product portfolio, we're benefiting from. In addition to that, you're seeing the acceleration of battery electric vehicles, which, again, given our vehicle architecture capabilities and some of the other product areas that we're working on, that we're seeing significant benefit from. So, the commercial momentum in the traditional portions of our business is stronger than it's ever been. And then, you overlay on top of it, a kind of second and third generation of advanced ADAS solutions, in-cabin sensing solutions, user experience solutions that are more dependent on software capabilities, which inherently we have based on our legacy business, and then you overlay the incremental capabilities that Wind River has and that they'll ultimately bring when they're a part of Aptiv, there really isn't anyone out there with the same sort of competitive position. And as we've talked about from a software standpoint, all of our customers are challenged by the level of software that's going into the vehicle, all of them are looking for help. And again, we feel like given our capabilities and the nature of our product portfolio, we're perfectly positioned to benefit from that trend.
Operator:
We will now take the next question from Chris McNally from Evercore.
Chris McNally:
I wanted to focus in on maybe the implied second half margin first. And obviously, I know you have a range – given you sort of reiterated the full year, just give us the quick calcs. If I look at the midpoint of your guidance, it implies sort of second half margins over first half are over 300 basis points better. And then, the top end, which I think a lot of people will be curious, since you kept, would be almost 150 basis points to 200 basis points better. So, 500 basis points more which imply margins in the 13%. Can you just walk us through that? Since you said Q2 looks like Q1, what is so different about second half? We obviously get better volumes. But how much of it is known price recoveries and the lag, which is hurting first half? Just any more qualitative on that? Because it's so stark second half versus first half?
Joseph Massaro:
Chris, it's Joe. I'll start and then Kevin can obviously add. Listen, I think you're right. Order of magnitude, we'd agree with you. It's not a change from where we saw the year to be honest with you in February. Obviously, didn't know about the war in the Ukraine and China COVID. But it was tilted to that. Some of it is comps. If you recall, just the back half of last year, August, September, October, COVID in Malaysia, those were the low points from a volume perspective. They were the high points from a cost disruption perspective. We had our EDS plants closed, the wire harness plants were closed for days at a time, week after week after week. So, we're picking up that benefit. We're not assuming that's recurring. And in addition to that, you've got building volume growth as we go through, building volumes as we start to go through some of the launches, particularly around things like user experience and there's some high voltage launches in the back half of the year. And our price recovery, just the way that negotiations have worked with customers over the past three or four months, tend to be somewhat back-end loaded, in that they start to pick up with the volume on the back half of the year. So, not a surprise to us within – and appreciate, we didn't give quarterly guidance, it was harder for folks to see. But that tilt was there in the existing guide. Now, we've got a little bit more pressure on it, if you assume a rough Q2 in China, which we are. But that market has demonstrated several times now its ability to rebound quickly. And from everything we're seeing at the moment on the ground over there, that's what we're assuming.
Kevin Clark:
Chris, maybe I'll add just taking a step back on Joe's comments. If I can just make one comment. So, we managed to COVID in 2020 and supply chain challenges in 2021 and Q1 of 2022. And at the same time, continued to advance our strength in our product portfolio. And all of that activity benefited our customers because we kept them connected and, quite frankly, our growth over market benefited our supply base. Right? And all of that as it relates to Aptiv has created a tremendous amount of commercial momentum, which is in our bookings and our growth over market. And to Joe's point, as you think about it, we have some structural initiatives underway where we're, quite frankly, reengineering out alternatives and bringing in lower cost alternatives. We're also leveraging the significant volume we have with the existing supply base. We're selectively pursuing this. Just given the strength of the funnel that's in front of us, we can be very selective about the business we pursue. And we're really focused on those customers where we have a much more strategic relationship with. And it's not a tactical relationship where we're fighting day to day about price. And all that is translated into significant improvement as we roll out through the balance of the year. Now, we run into particular periods where, like Q1, to keep customers connected, maybe broker buys were higher than what we would like, but as we look at the balance of the year and how we sit from a supply chain standpoint, we think even those sorts of disruptions are reasonably manageable.
Chris McNally:
Can we talk about a little bit by division? You referenced a lot of SPS. But, obviously, we've been waiting for sort of the margin uptick in ASUE. And if I think about it on a two-year basis, your margins in the second half of 2020 were in the, call it, 8% plus range for ASUE. That would seem to be implied. Again, if I just do the midpoint of your second half because it's such a – we've now been in the low-single digits for ASUE for six quarters. I just wanted to confirm that both divisions would see that uptick.
Joseph Massaro:
Yeah. Both do, Chris. ASUX is a little bit more challenged, obviously, just given – that is where a lot of the semiconductor spend is, right? So, round numbers, when I give an inflation number, I mentioned that $80 million to Emmanuel, two-thirds of that plus is hitting ASUX. And what does hit in SPS, some of that is copper timing, right, because we're indexed on the metals by there. So, would expect ASUX to finish the year, call it, back to mid-single digits. So, just like it's bearing the cost of a lot of that semiconductor pain at the moment, it's going to receive the benefits of the commercial recoveries in price. So, we are targeting mid-single-digit for the full year in ASUX. So, obviously, that would put us closer to high-single digits in the back half. SPS has a bit more of a straighter trajectory. It's low double digits now or just about low-double digits now, and it moves sort of mid-double digits for the full year.
Chris McNally:
This is really super straightforward one. High voltage, the plus 30%, the industry looks like it's growing 50% or 60%. Again, you have tough comps because of the great year last year. Just any color you can talk about sort of the potential to have upside in high voltage.
Joseph Massaro:
It's growing really strong. It is a tough comp. I think it was – I don't know, it was 128% or something last year growth. So, you've got to tough year-over-year. There's a couple things there. Obviously, there was some European production disruption, which hits high voltage. There was some China disruption in the back half, which obviously now it's hit high voltage. So, those are sort of the transactional things in the quarter. There's two other things that I'd probably highlight there. One is – Kevin's talked about and just referenced, we tend to be very selective on who we're doing high voltage with. We want to make sure they're going to build the cars, want to see them – OEs that are going to transform their portfolio where we're committing long term to those platforms. So, as you see – particularly in other parts of the world, and China, as you see some of the smaller OEs, just see some of the other platforms kick in, we're selecting not to be on every car there, obviously, but we've got great content, we're on about 50% of the launches over the next two years. So that is what I would sort of frame as the sort of the bigger picture. But you did have some transactional things in the quarter that just, given the importance of high voltage in Europe and China, that's going to impact that number there.
Operator:
We will now take the next question from Mark Delaney from Goldman Sachs.
Mark Delaney:
To start off, I was hoping to better understand how the recoveries that you're seeing this year are being structured? And is it more about surcharges that are maybe temporary or perhaps a more sustainable change in price? And I'm asking because I'm trying to better understand the ability that Aptiv has to hold on to the recoveries you're expecting to see in 2H as you head into 2023 and then hopefully make progress toward the 12% plus longer-term EBIT margin target you have?
Kevin Clark:
Yeah, Mark, I'm sorry. You were a little bit faint from a question standpoint. I think you were asking about structurally how we see a path back to more normalized margins.
Mark Delaney:
The recoveries you're seeing in the second half of the year, are those more surcharges that are maybe temporary? Or are you structuring these more as sustainable changes in how the products are being priced? And I'm trying to get at to what extent can you hold on to this [indiscernible].
Kevin Clark:
To the point that Joe made earlier when he walked through the several – they're all permanent structural initiatives that that translate into either reduced cost from a permanent standpoint. And that could be done through price negotiations with suppliers, or engineering and lower cost solutions, which requires work between our engineering and sourcing organization, or it's price discussions, commercial recovery discussions with our customers, all of which would be permanent and structural in nature.
Mark Delaney:
I was hoping to follow up on was this redesigning of chip suppliers. You mentioned it several times on the call today, maybe you can remind us what needs to happen to go ahead with that in terms of testing of this system with a new chip, what kind of software rewrites might be necessary? How long does that take? But then just give me a sense of how far along you are in this effort in 2022? Because, again, you spoke to it multiple times now in the calls. It seems like you're having some good success there.
Kevin Clark:
It really varies by the nature of the product. There are some situations, although rare, where it's a fairly easy switch with a minimal amount of validation. Given the nature of where we play, when you think about user experience, when you think about high voltage electrification, advanced ADAS solutions, the bulk of what we do require some element of reengineering and validation activities that take place at Aptiv as well as with our customer. Those can range anywhere between six months to a year plus. These have been initiatives that have been underway for – really since kind of early to mid-2021. So, we're well underway. It's close to 100 engineers today who are solely focused on that hardware redesign as well as to the extent software needs to be changed. As you said, software redesign initiatives, I think we had a little over 100 programs underway. 50, as I mentioned, in my prepared comments that have already been implemented, and then another 50, which will be completed and implemented through the balance of the year. So, most of it requires investment from an engineering standpoint and some element of time, but it's something that's been underway for a fairly lengthy period of time.
Operator:
We will now take the next question from Joseph Spak from RBC Capital Markets.
Joseph Spak:
I just want to go back to, holistically, talk about some of the parts here because it sounds like there's more pricing recoveries assumed in your outlook than prior. And your light vehicle production or your vehicle production outlook at 6% weighted to Aptiv is sort of unchanged. So, it would seem like the – to sort of hold the guidance, somewhere like the core or base outgrowth has to be a different assumption. So, maybe you could just help us out with that sort of puzzle. And, like, how much of the recoveries is really helping the top line and your guidance now versus prior?
Joseph Massaro:
Yeah, not really changed, Joe. We did talk about at the time of the guide, the economics were always in the guide. They weren't on the price line. And I think we've talked about the reasons why we did that because we're not necessarily sure how or all of the recoveries are going to come from. But, no, the economics remained fairly consistent with what was in the original guide, which is in part how we're holding. Like I said, there are some increases we're seeing coming through during the current year, but we've obviously got activities and we're able to absorb a little bit more of that. So from a net economic basis, really no change. On the top line assumption, we're at approximately 6%. Understand, there's a lot of movements – I think the world has effectively come down closer to 6%. Right? We were, I think, probably a little bit more realistic at the start of the year. And listen, as I mentioned, they're most likely going to be some puts and takes across regions. Our view was that the industry probably could have done more in North America to begin with, if it wasn't for some of the supply chain constraints. So, to the extent you get some softening in Europe, parts availability, chip availability goes up because of softness in Europe, we think North America could potentially do more, at least based on what we're hearing from our customers. And then, I said our assumption around China, which is our assumption based on the feedback we're getting from our teams on the ground and our customers there is they're expecting to recover pretty quickly from what is now a prolonged lockdown going into sort of mid second quarter. It started mid-March, right? So, it's been going on for a while. And that's a region and a part of the industry that has demonstrated several times now their ability to come back pretty quickly and pretty robustly. So, that's what we're currently assuming, but really no changes in sort of net economics. Like I said on the original guide and my prepared comments, we try to think through what was realistically coming down, coming down on us in 2022 from an inflation perspective, and what we're going to have to go do from a recovery perspective.
Joseph Spak:
Kevin, you talked about Wind River a little bit. And obviously, all these automakers are undergoing big decisions about architecture and software, they want to make sure all the boxes can talk to each other. That's a refrain we hear quite, quite often. Are you really – even though it's sort of not closed, are you really able to have those discussions with the automakers? It sounds like you are. And again, maybe just a little bit more color on the receptivity to using a solution like Wind River because it's obviously a very important and complex decision for the automakers?
Kevin Clark:
Let's start with how we work with Wind River. So, as we mentioned when we announced the transaction, our first step with Wind River was really reaching a commercial arrangement where we were partnering on the development of middleware and a software tool chain. And today, we operate under the terms of that commercial agreement. So, we jointly go to customers, discussing what we're developing and the capabilities that Aptiv brings, as well as the capabilities that Wind River brings. So, those commercial engagements have been extensive, with a very high level of interest. I would say separate from that, given our capabilities on ADAS and user experience in the traditional areas of software, kind of feature development, software building blocks, where we have a legacy or history, there are separate discussions going on there as well. whether it's an OEM that we're also talking to about middleware and what we're doing with Wind River or we're not. There's increasing need for support as it relates to their software activities. As we talk about, Joe, it's, it's a meaningful opportunity. A bulk of the industry is really struggling with it. And we feel like we're very well positioned to assist in the transition to the software defined vehicle.
Operator:
We will now take the next question from Brian Johnson from Barclays.
Brian Johnson:
Just want to follow up on related themes [indiscernible] this morning. So, first is around price recovery. Second, just further drilling down into the tier 2 issue [indiscernible]. If I'm running an OEM, it seems like I've been assaulted by or requested by every tier 1 on Earth for recovery, tier 2 pressures coming through to the extent it's a direct to buy. So, just at what level of the OEM are you having these discussions? And kind of related to that, as we've discussed over the years, to what extent is your C suite access, talking about autonomy, electrification, software defined vehicle facilitate those cost recovery discussions?
Kevin Clark:
Just to be clear, our focus is on both reducing the cost of the input. So, there's a lot of activity – with the supply base, there's a lot of focus on how do we continue to reduce our own cost structure as well, and then there are discussions with the OEM about price increases, especially in those areas where we're seeing a tremendous amount of price inflation. And semiconductor is a great area. Those discussions tend to take place at, to your point, the most senior levels within the OEM. I'd say we've had actually a fair amount of success in those discussions, especially with those OEMs, where we have a more strategic long term focused relationship. And the nature of what we do, whether it's battery electric vehicles, whether it's ADAS systems or solutions, those tend to be programs or initiatives that are much more long term in nature and require alignment between supplier and customer. And I'd say we're having more success with those particular customers or in those relationships.
Brian Johnson:
And second, a follow on to the questions around semiconductor substitution and software. Is there actually a margin opportunity of the midterm to the extent you swap out a semiconductor supplier with embedded firmware and replace that with Aptiv software that could be in a domain or a zone or even central computer unit?
Kevin Clark:
Yeah, absolutely. And those are some of the initiatives that we're working on now. We don't have any in play or in place at this point in time. But that is a part of our whole SVA strategy and our whole software strategy.
Joseph Massaro:
Brian, it's Joe. You might recall as well, and this is a couple of years out, but we did talk about over $100 million of synergies from Wind River, which is in part taking out some of the middleware, the RTOS that we currently pay for from other suppliers, and start to leverage the Wind River products once we own them. Now, that's a couple years out, but that is thematically consistent with what you're talking about as well.
Operator:
The next question comes from Ryan Brinkman from J.P. Morgan.
Ryan Brinkman:
Thanks for taking my question, which is on power electronics. Of course, the disposition of Delphi Technologies materially increased your overall growth and margin profile. Although I've been noting over the past year that the power electronics piece of that powertrain business, which was I think transferred from the remainco just prior to the spin, it's been winning a ton of awards, first for inverters and now yesterday for battery management system. So, obviously, electrical architecture is very attractively levered to high voltage. Now, you're getting into even higher margin other areas, like software with Wind River, et cetera. But just wanted to sort of gauge your appetite or ability to participate in some of these power electronics areas which are high growth and where previously [indiscernible], I don't know, maybe there are non-competes or other obstacles which could cause you to want to focus on other areas?
Kevin Clark:
I mentioned in my comments areas where we're investing. So, a number of customers, given our history and given our capabilities in software and even in high voltage electrification, have come to us with interest in the power electronics and battery management system space. And that's an area where we've built out teams or actually in the process of working with OEM customers in developing those products solution. So it's an incremental opportunity for us today, and we'd hope by the end of this year have more commercial activity to be discussing on calls like this. So that's something that's been underway for, like, frankly, the last couple of years.
Joseph Massaro:
Ryan, it's Joe. We're not precluded in any way from that space. And if you recall back in 2017 – I'm sorry, 2019 when we spun the powertrain business, it was – 2017. It was the right thing to do. We were focused on making sure that business had the ability to grow beyond its internal combustion footprint and power electronics made sense there, just given at the time, how it was sold into the customers. But we're not precluded in any way from participating in that part of the market.
Operator:
The next question comes from David Kelley from Jefferies.
David Kelley:
I think you mentioned non-autos is now 16% of revenues. You clearly have Wind River closing soon. The macro has changed quite a bit since 2019. But you've been targeting kind of non-auto revenue mix at 25%, I believe, by 2025. So, I guess, could you update us on that goal and how you're thinking about the organic and acquisition opportunities to bridge the 16% to the 25%?
Joseph Massaro:
It's Joe. I think over the next couple of years, we've got really good growth in that non-automotive business. We think that closes the gap to, call it, almost 20%. Now, we've got the other product lines growing faster, so it doesn't quite get to 20% organically. It's probably good news, in that the other product lines – things like high voltage have continued to grow really fast. But still have some work to do on the inorganic side. We've talked consistently M&A strategy. We'll continue to include businesses like Winchester Interconnect, which was non-automotive in a product line category that we understand really well, or businesses like HellermannTyton that have a really good balance of industrial and aerospace and automotive. So, continue to focus both on the organic and inorganic. As we've always said, that was a high level target. That was an ambition. We're not going to take a big student body right just to hit that number, but we think we're on a really good trajectory to get there.
David Kelley:
Maybe one quick clarification on the autos business as well. I think you noted revenue growth of 5% in S&PS from non-autos. And I think you also mentioned CB and industrial product growth of 1% elsewhere in the deck. So, I guess bridging that gap, is that all datacom or is there some other factor we should be considering there?
Joseph Massaro:
No, no, no. The 5% is total Aptiv. Right? So, ASUX has some commercial vehicle business and some recent launches that are growing quite nicely. So it's total Aptiv. SPS was down 1% this quarter, which is low, but impacted by – primarily the China shutdowns impacted that commercial vehicle space in the quarter. The one other comment just that I mentioned this, we did have that channel replenishment in Q1 last year in the engineer components business, connectors and HellermannTyton, a part of that falls into that non-automotive business. Obviously, we're replenishing the distribution channel. So, you've got a little bit of a year-over-year comp that impacts non-auto as well.
Operator:
We will now take the next question from Itay Michaeli from Citi.
Itay Michaeli:
Just two questions from me. Going back to the second half margin, your implied margin, is that a good way to think about the go-forward margin beyond 2022? Are there any potential kind of one-time recoveries or benefits we should be thinking about in the bridge beyond 2022? And maybe for Kevin, on the 50 projects for product redesigns, maybe talk a little about what is the cost savings from that? How big are those projects and the timing for some of the savings from those.
Joseph Massaro:
It's Joe. Let me start with the question. Not going to quite, at this point in the year, get into sort of exit margins or sort of run rates coming out at the end of the year. The way I would think about it more for 2023 would be – and what we're looking at is obviously how do the COVID and supply chain costs come down over the course of next year and then, obviously, over the next couple of years, addressing the material inflation. I think things are still a little choppy to sort of take one quarter or one period of time and try to extrapolate for a year. But the margin improvement that we talked about first half to second half, we would expect to sustain that go forward. But I think it's a little choppy at the moment to sort of try to go out and take a stab at 2023 margin.
Kevin Clark:
Itay, to your question about those initiatives, it varies. Right? Some are longer term, as I mentioned, and more complex. Some are shorter term and less complex. When you think about savings, you think about the offset to material inflation that we're seeing – that we saw late last year and this year, plus the benefit of incremental volume in the out years. So, it's meaningful savings as the volume rolls out and the products replaced.
Operator:
We will now take the next question from Dan Levy from Credit Suisse.
Dan Levy:
I want to ask a couple questions on the disruptions you're seeing in Europe and China. So maybe we just start with Europe. Maybe you could just be a bit more granular on the impact to S&PS in Europe. A, do you have any remaining operations in Europe? And I know you mentioned customers are paying for the moved production. And then, you can give us a sense of how much volume you've lost or whether there's other leakages. And is there any potential to take additional business from perhaps other competitors that are over indexed to Ukraine?
Kevin Clark:
Maybe let's break it down. So, we have a facility in Russia. Russia is not operating at this point in time, at least if you believe customers schedule, their production picking up some time late this quarter. That's something that we'll watch closely. When you think of Ukraine, we've talked about this. Or you look at Ukraine, we talked about in the past, we have four manufacturing facilities. Two of those facilities, production has been fully moved, again, paid for by the customer. Up and running, whether it be in North Africa, Poland, or Serbia, in existing footprint. So, supporting Western European OEMs. We have two facilities in the very western part of the Ukraine that are operating at this point in time at very low production levels. But there's some production going on supporting a one Western European OEM. A few OEMs have come to us asking us to pick up volume or pick up programs from other suppliers who weren't able to move as quickly as we were able to move. Just given where we were, just given economics, those weren't situations we pursued. And my guess is, things continue to evolve, we'll have ongoing discussions with those OEMs whether or not it makes sense for us to take over that business. But it has presented some potential incremental revenue opportunities.
Dan Levy:
Net-net, it sounds like the actual impact from what's going on in Ukraine has actually been more limited. Is that a fair assessment?
Kevin Clark:
Yeah. There's been a revenue and OI impact in the grand scheme of things. I wouldn't call it out separately if we're in a situation where you have long term China lockdowns and challenges in Ukraine and Russia could be a bigger number, but at this point in time, I wouldn't get into specifics. We've managed through it. We started already moving production before conflict or war actually started. So, we got ahead of it. As I said, we had a couple OEMs who were very focused on it. And we partnered with them, we had existing space, we're able to move production pretty easily, and they supported us from a cost and logistics standpoint in actually doing that.
Joseph Massaro:
And in locations where we're – the western parts sort of along the Polish-Romanian border, that production will be moved. There is the ability to manufacture those products in other locations. Those customers were just a little bit slower to respond. And to Kevin's point, and one of the reasons we're not talking about this, some of the cost bucket, we just went with a – if you want to move, this is what it's going to cost. And customers have effectively agreed to that and are paying it.
Dan Levy:
Maybe you could also give us a sense on more specifically what is happening in China right now, to what extent has your production been outright halted? Where does it stand today? And I think we've seen in the past when your production is outright halted, the decrementals start to get pretty ugly. So, why isn't this more of a pressure to the business if you're having sort of outright production shutdown?
Kevin Clark:
Well, I think Joe said it. It is a pressure near term, depending on the length of the lockdowns. I'd say at this point in time, all of our facilities are up and operating. Our engineered components facilities at a higher capacity utilization levels. We have several facilities that never shutdown. We have a few in the Shanghai area from a wire harness standpoint that actually did. Those wire harness facilities are now, on average, operating at a 50% to 60% capacity utilization level. So, there is an element of production that's actually taking place. The question is, how long does the situation stay as it is and we don't see ramp up in production or does the situation deteriorate? And we're just watching that very closely.
Joseph Massaro:
Dan, it's kind of what we talked about last year, just different timing. Right? As I said in my prepared comments, we do expect Q2 to be heavily impacted. That is a market our business team and industry, our customers that have recovered quickly in the past. There's time left in the year where this is – we're talking about a March, April, May, not November, December type disruption. And it was a little bit of the same dialogue we had last year. Depending on when the disruption occurs, demand is still strong, customers want to buy the cars, inventory levels at the dealers are still low. So, there is a desire by our customers to recover quickly. And just given where we are from a point in time in the year and from what we're seeing from customers desires and our capabilities, we have the ability to – if it is Q2 and sort of stays contained within Q2, we do have the ability to recover the balance of the year.
Operator:
That will conclude today's question-and-answer session. I would now like to hand back to Kevin Clark for any closing remarks.
Kevin Clark:
Great. Thank you, everyone, for your time. We appreciate it. Have a nice rest of the day.
Operator:
Thank you. That will conclude today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. Ladies and gentlemen, you may now disconnect.
Operator:
Good day and welcome to the Aptiv Fourth Quarter 2021 Earnings Conference Call. Today's conference is being recorded. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Chris Tillett, Director of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
Christopher Tillett:
Thank you, Kevin. Good morning. And thank you for joining Aptiv's fourth-quarter and full-year 2021 Earnings Conference Call. The press release and related tables along with the slide presentation can be found on the Investor Relations portion of our website at aptiv.com. Today's review of our financials excludes restructuring and other special items, and will address the continuing operations of Aptiv. Reconciliations between GAAP and non - GAAP measures for our Q4 and full-year financials, as well as for our full-year 2022 outlook are included in the back of the slide presentation and the earnings press release. During today's call, we will be providing certain forward-looking information, which reflects after its current view of future financial performance, and maybe materially different from our actual performance for reasons that we site in our Form 10-K and other SEC filings, including uncertainties posed by the COVID-19 pandemic and the difficulty in predicting its future course and impact on the supply chain and global economy. Joining us today will be Kevin Clark, Aptiv 's President and CEO and Joe Massaro, CFO and Senior Vice President of Business Operations. Kevin will provide a strategic update on the business, and Joe will cover the financial results and 2022 outlook in more detail before we open the call to Q&A. With that, I'd like to turn the call over to Kevin Clark.
Kevin Clark:
Thank you, Chris and thank you everyone for joining us this morning. Beginning on Slide 3. During 2021, we experienced record growth over market and record new business bookings driven by our industry-leading portfolio of advanced technologies aligned to the safe, green, and connected megatrends, as well as our success keeping our customers running through the ongoing supply chain disruptions. Despite the increased efforts to keep our customers connected, our financial results validate the strength of our competitive position and the resiliency of our business model. Focusing on the highlights for the full year, new business bookings reached $24 billion and revenues totaled $15.6 billion, representing 15% growth, 15 points over underlying vehicle production. Operating income and earnings per share totaled $1.2 billion and 261 respectively, reflecting the benefit of strong revenue growth, partially offset by increased operating expenses related to supply chain disruptions and material cost inflation, which Joe will cover in greater detail in a few minutes. Lastly, we continue to invest in organic growth initiatives. And as you know, recently announced an agreement to acquire Wind River, a leading provider of intelligent and software solutions, representing one more step in accelerating the intelligent transformation of Aptiv, and positioning us to enable the software-defined future. This transition -- this transaction uniquely positioned Aptiv to provide comprehensive solutions that enabled software to be developed faster, deployed more seamlessly, and optimized throughout the vehicle life cycle. Setting the supply chain challenges aside, the Aptiv team is executing exceptionally well. Continuing to proactively position the company for the future, increasing the efficiency of our underlying cost structure while investing in high-growth, high-margin advanced technologies that increased the resiliency of our business model, which will lead to a stronger competitive position and increased value for our shareholders. Turn to Slide 4, as already mentioned, we remain laser-focused on executing our strategy and further enhancing our industry-leading capabilities. The macro headwinds we've faced over the past two years have validated the resiliency of our business model, showcased by the [indiscernible] execution of new -- new program launches, as well as the record new business bookings and record revenue growth over market. Looking ahead, Aptiv will be in even better positioned to capitalize on the Safe, Green, and Connected megatrends just as the path to the software-defined vehicles accelerating. Our scalable advanced ADAS in-cabin sensing solutions, increased system performance while lowering cost enabling the democratization of Aptiv safety features. Our extensive portfolio of both low-voltage and high-voltage electrification solutions allows us to develop optimized vehicle architectures that significantly reduced vehicle weight and mass, and lower overall vehicle cost. And our vehicle connectivity solutions provide our OEMs as the data analytics and insights that allow for continuous enhancements through the vehicle lifecycle and our fleet customers with a vehicle health data to minimize vehicle downtime. Collectively, each of these offerings is a key foundational element for our smart vehicle architecture solution. And 2021 was a proof point for the market relevancy of our industry-leading portfolio of advanced technologies which gives us the confidence to increase our framework for revenue growth to eight to 10 points over vehicle production. As shown on Slide 5, 2021 new business bookings totaled a record $24 billion, a $6 billion increase over the COVID impacted 2020 amount and a $2 billion increase over the previous record of $22 billion. Our unique portfolio of safe, green and connected technologies combined with our flawless operating execution, continues to position Aptiv as a partner of choice for our customers. Advanced safety and user experience segment bookings totaled $6 billion for the year, including $2.8 billion in Aptiv Safety awards. Bookings for our Signal and Power Solutions segment reached $18 billion, including a record $3.5 billion of high-voltage electrification awards. The cumulative amount of our new business bookings over the last few years across our portfolio of advanced technologies gives us confidence in our ability to sustain strong above-market growth across both of our business segments further validating the resiliency of our business model. Turning to the highlights from our Advanced Safety and User Experience segment on Slide 6. Revenues for the fourth quarter declined 1%, 15 points better than the reduction in global vehicle production. For the full year, revenues increased 13%, 13 points over vehicle production reflecting the benefit of new program launches and increased penetration rates which resulted in strong growth over market in our Active Safety product line, and continued strong growth in our user experience in connectivity and security product lines, driven by the launch of infotainment programs in Europe and in-cabin sensing programs in both North America and Europe. As the demand increases for more advanced Active Safety and User Experience features, the need for more advanced software development, integration, and compute capabilities is required. And our industry-leading capabilities presents us with additional market share opportunities, as evidenced by a new business award from Stellantis for our ADAS Satellite Architecture Solution on the Ram pickup truck, building off of our earlier success launching a similar scalable active safety solution on the Jeep Grand Cherokee and Wagoneer. Several new business awards from Ford for the extension of our ADAS satellite architecture solutions across additional new vehicle platforms. Awards from Volvo for the extension of the first of its kind android infotainment solution powered by native Google automotive services with real-time OTA onto new additional vehicle platforms. And lastly, further commercial validation of our smart vehicle architecture solution in China with a new business award from Baidu for the development of a central vehicle controller. This high performance computer platform will launch in 2023 on a vehicle produced by the Geely-Baidu joint venture Jidu and will up integrate central body functions and control the flow of data in and out of the vehicles. Moving to Slide 7, fourth-quarter revenues in our Signal and Power Solutions segment declined 6%, 10 points better than the declining global vehicle production for the full year, revenues increased 16%, 16 points over vehicle production, reflecting the increased production high-voltage electrified vehicles resulting in increased demand for both our low voltage and high-voltage architecture solutions, from traditional and emerging electric vehicle OEMS. And continued strong demand from engineered components, for both automotive and not automotive applications. We're perfectly positioned to support our customers globally, with an industry leading portfolio of high-voltage distribution, connection, and cable management solutions, which has translated into a significant increase in new business awards for high-voltage solutions, including an award for Rivian for low-voltage content on the electrified R1S and R1T models, an extension of our 2019 award on these vehicles. An award for high-voltage vehicle architecture covering several next-generations, Stellantis vehicles. An important win is more European platforms migrate to full-battery electric vehicles. High-voltage architecture awards with VW for additional IT models on their MEB platform, building off several high-voltage bookings on the MEB platform in 2020. And lastly, an award from a major North American OEM for a wireless charging solution double launch on several of their vehicle platforms. These new business awards validate our leadership position in optimizing high-voltage power distribution for new vehicle architectures that deliver value for our customers. We continue to see an acceleration of powertrain electrification driven by both more stringent CO2 regulations and the increasing momentum for consumer acceptance. The fact that we have content of more than 50% of the battery electric vehicles launching over the next few years, we're confident that we will continue to experience very strong revenue growth from our high-voltage electrification product line. Turning to Slide 8, as I mentioned in early January, we announced the agreement to acquire Wind River, a global leader in intelligent edge connected systems. This acquisition reflects our commitment to accelerating Aptiv's software strategy. Together, we'll be able to provide a comprehensive edge-to-cloud software solutions spanning the full intelligence system lifecycle across multiple industries. Our complementary software offerings will create new growth and value creation opportunities for Aptiv and our customers through a cloud-native platform that enables the development, deployment, and operation of software across the full vehicle life-cycle. As smart vehicle architecture enables the evolution of vehicle architecture and advanced feature adoption across domains, Wind River 's proven solutions for mission-critical applications will play a key role in enabling the software defined vehicle. Slide 9 provides an overview of our software strategy. When the tipping point in the automotive industry transition to the software-defined vehicle, consumers are demanding more advanced features for vehicle safety, comfort, and convenience. 5G in the cloud or creating opportunities to deliver vehicles at leverage connectivity and lower battery costs are accelerating the penetration of high-voltage electrification. All of which has enabled through a significant increase in the amount of software content in the vehicle, growing from $30 billion today to $90 billion by 2030. OEMs are beginning to separate software from the underlying hardware, both tactically as a transition to smart vehicle architectures and in how they're sourcing new programs. After this enabling OEMs to accelerate their transition to electrified software-defined vehicle by employing more holistic engineering and development approach to optimize the hardware, the software, and the system solution that spans the full vehicle stack. Our industry-leading position, and the development of high-performance, cost-optimized, automotive-grade hardware, and deep software development capabilities deployed across millions of vehicles with multiple OEMs across the globe gives us confidence in our unique competitive position. The combined expertise and complementary technologies of Aptiv and Wind River further augmented with TTTech's deterministic framework that enhances active safety software applications are uniquely positioned to assist OEMs and cost-effectively accelerating the development and the deployment of the software-defined vehicle. After smart vehicle architecture solution optimizes the vehicle infrastructure while providing the necessary network redundancy and resiliency. Wind River Studio cloud-native platform allows for the development, deployment, operation, and servicing the vehicle software stack, shortening development cycles, speeding time to market and enabling full lifecycle management. And an open development environment allows for future adoption and development from multiple sources, including Aptiv's active safety and user experience software, as well as OEM developed software. In short, our strategy continues to be focused on accelerating the transition to the software-defined vehicle by offering a complete stack from high performance hardware to cloud connectivity that enables value-added services. A software architecture that is open, that scalable and containerized, easily upgradeable, and providing OEMs of flexibility to efficiently integrate their own as well as other software and feature development. And they can be continuously certified, for safety critical applications. And providing full life cycle management capabilities, that enable attractive new business models. Moving to Slide 10, some of the advanced technologies we've discussed were on display at this year's CES event in Las Vegas. Outside the pavilion, we showed a number of future rich vehicles with Aptiv's vehicle architecture, Aptiv's safety and user experience content already onboard. Inside the pavilion, we featured up fully functioning smart vehicle architecture and continuous delivery platform. We hosted over 400 customers, both in-person and virtually, from over 50 companies, including 25 OEMs. This year, CES event provided our customers with the opportunity to validate Aptiv's full system portfolio, generating significant interest in the future-defining products that we continue to develop and deliver to OEMs. Moving to Slide 11, before I turn the call over to Joe, I wanted to comment on our outlook for 2022. As we've already discussed, we continue to face headwinds related to supply chain disruptions and material cost inflation. However, as we manage through these day-to-day challenges, we remain laser-focused on executing our strategy to build a more sustainable business and deliver lasting value creation, which has translated into market share gains, accelerated revenue growth, and increased underlying profitability driven by the development of advanced technologies that are accelerating the transition to electrified, software-defined vehicles. As I mentioned earlier, as a result of the confidence we have in our competitive position, we've increased our outlook for growth over market to eight to 10 points, further validated by recent strong revenue growth and new program awards. In our advanced technologies focused on Safe Green and Connected Megatrends are enabling market share in content gains, which will translate into margin expansion and earnings growth. Unfortunately, we expect supply chain -- we expect supply chains to remain tight and disruptions to continue, but begin improving in the back half of this year. And inflationary effects including rising material costs are likely to be around for some time. [Indiscernible] we're managing our cost structure and working to recover the increase of material costs through various pricing, product redesign, sourcing, and footprint strategies. Our strategic focus and operating execution, as well as the current headwinds, are reflected in the full-year 2022 guidance that Joe will review with you shortly which anticipates a continued expansion of our competitive moat which will leverage into increased new business bookings, accelerated revenue growth, and increased margins in cash flow generation. With that, I'll now turn the call over to Joe to talk through the numbers.
Joseph Massaro:
Thanks, Kevin. And good morning, everyone. Starting with a recap of the fourth-quarter financial on Slide 12. As Kevin highlighted earlier, the business drove strong growth over market while supporting our customers despite ongoing disruptions in the supply chain. Revenues of $4.1 billion were down 4% with 12 points of growth above underlying production. Adjusted EBITDA and operating income were $461 million and $273 million respectively. Reflecting flow-through on lower volume as we [indiscernible] the rapid second half recovery in 2020, partially offset by strong growth in our key product lines with new program launches in high-voltage, Aptiv's safety, and user experience. COVID and supply chain disruption costs of $85 million, of $15 million increase over Q4 2020, and the net negative impact of approximately $80 million for material inflation and foreign exchange. Earnings per share in the quarter were $0.56 with the lower operating income levels being partially offset by favorable tax expense, including the tax benefits related to the supply chain disruption costs. The equity income loss at motional had a $0.21 negative impact. Lastly, operating cash flow with $669 million, including a positive contribution from working capital, partially offsetting the lower earnings level. Capital expenditures increased $86 million year-over-year to a $181 million for the quarter reflecting the timing of investments ahead of major 2022 program launches. Looking at the fourth quarter revenues in more detail on Slide 13, we saw a strong double-digit growth over market in all regions and across both segments, reflecting the continued strength of our product lines despite lower vehicle production in the quarter and continued supply chain disruptions. FX and commodity movements were also a net favorable to revenue as compared to the prior period, largely due to copper price escalations. From a regional perspective, North America revenues were down 2%, representing 11 points of growth over market. Driven by favorable model mix as truck and SUV production continued to outperform passenger cars, as well as active safety and high-voltage In Europe, we saw a strong double-digit outgrowth of 11% as user experience launches offset a steep market decline from continued supply chain disruptions in the region. Lastly in China, revenues reflecting 17 points of growth over market resulted from new program launches in our Aptiv safety, high-voltage, and user experience businesses. The continued strong growth above market in the fourth quarter closed out a record year for Aptiv as strong revenue outperformance and record bookings highlighted by Kevin continues to demonstrate the relevance of our core technologies. Moving to the segments on the next slide, Advanced Safety and User Experience revenues fell 1% in the quarter, which translates to 15 points of growth over underlying vehicle production. This includes growth in Active Safety, where revenues were up 7% despite the semiconductor supply shortages driven by program ramps in North America and Europe. User experience growth was down for the quarter due to the timing of program launches, but up 5% in the full year. Segment EBITDA was down $82 million due to higher input costs. Inflation, and semiconductors and other inputs accounted for roughly $50 million of that decrease. Signal and Power Solutions revenues were down 6%, representing 10% growth over market. The market outperformance was driven by continued strength in our high-voltage product line, as well as strong performance in the engineered components product lines. Commercial vehicle and industrial revenue growth of 7% for the quarter, including strength in commercial vehicle, despite a flat market. EBITDA in the segment was down a $135 million in the quarter on lower sales volume and higher supply chain disruption and material costs. Together, those two drivers accounted for roughly $70 million of the decrease. For our -- for 2021, our high-voltage product lines reported revenues of approximately $1 billion in achieved bookings of 3.5 billion, records on both fronts. In addition, high-voltage margins exceeded the segment average for the year. Turning now to Slide 15 in our 2022 macro environment. For 2022, we are expecting global vehicle production to increase 6% to approximately 83 million units on an active weighted production basis. We expect 2022 to start slowly as supply chain and COVID constraints continue to impact the industry. Accordingly, we see vehicle production as being roughly flat in the first half of the year. We see supply chain constraints easing as we move through the year and we expect vehicle production to increase 15% in the second half. Looking at the regions in North America, we expect overall production growth of 9% with continued favorable truck and SUV mix. In Europe, we anticipate 10% overall production growth, a stronger recovery given the relatively greater European production disruption last year. China is expected to be down 1% for the year at approximately 25 million units. On Slide 16, you'll find our 2022 outlook for Aptiv. This current outlook excludes Wind River as the transaction is not expected to close until the third quarter of the year. As was the case in 2021, we will only be providing full-year 2022 guidance as supply chain disruptions continued results in production scheduled volatility at our customers. We expect revenue in the range of $ 17.75 to $18.15 billion, up 15% of the midpoint compared to 2021. With global vehicle production expected to grow 6% for the full year, this translates in a nine points of growth above market in line with our updated 8% to 10% growth over market range. Consistent with prior forecast, this range is multiyear and covers 2022 and 2023. ASUX growth over market of 19% is driven by the continued ramp of Active Safety and User Experience programs in Europe and North America while SPS growth over market of 6% is driven by further penetration in our high-voltage and engineered components businesses. EBITDA and operating income are expected to be approximately $2.6 billion and $1.9 billion is the midpoint with margin expansion of profitable segments. Consistent with 2021, although our core product line profitability continues to be aligned with our expectations, we will incur meaningful costs related to COVID safety protocols, supply chain disruptions and material inflation. COVID and supply chain disruption costs are estimated at $230 million, an improvement of a $100 million over 2021. We expect the improvement to come in the second half of the year as supply chain disruptions lessen and we [indiscernible] the heavily disrupted third quarter of 2021. We expect materials inflation to increase approximately $200 million in 2022. While we continue to make progress in mitigating these costs, we expect these efforts to take until 2023 as we have noted in prior quarters. And FX and commodities will have a negative impact of $60 million versus 2021, driven by copper pricing at $4.40 and our Euro rate of 114. As we discussed in our January 12 Wind River acquisition call, beginning in 2022, we will change our definition of adjusted EPS to exclude amortization. Annual amortization in 2022 is estimated to be a $150 million. The appendix to this presentation includes a reconciliation highlighting the change, including the prior year. For 2022, We estimate adjusted earnings per share to be $4.35, an increase of 42% over the comparable adjusted 2021 totals. We expect 2022 operating cash flow of just over $2 billion driven by the earnings increase in favorable working capital of roughly $400 million. Lastly, we estimate total CapEx to be approximately 5% of sales. Slide 17 includes the puts and takes for our 2022 revenue and EBITDA guidance as compared to 2021 Starting with revenue on the left, we've already discussed our expected industry recovery of approximately 6% for the full year. And our new growth over market framework of 8% to 10% has approximately $1.75 billion of additional revenues. We expect a slight headwind from FX and commodities and assume price downs of 2%. For adjusted EBITDA on the right-hand side of the slide, we expect to see the benefit of our flexible and scalable cost structure driving strong volume flow-through on higher revenues, partially offset by the impact of price downs. As noted, while COVID and supply chain disruption costs remain in 2022, we are expecting a year-over-year improvement of a $100 million. And FX and material inflation costs, our net headwind of approximately $265 million for the year, driven by rising semiconductor and resin prices, and unfavorable FX rates year-over-year. EBITDA totaled $2.6 billion at the midpoint. An increase of approximately 28% over 2021. Turning to Slide 18, we wanted to provide a few more details around Wind River. Noting again that we expect the transaction to close later this year and the Wind River financials are not included in the 2022 guide. As we talked about in January, the Wind River product portfolio of intelligent edge operating systems and middleware has been a long established leader in edge devices, requiring robust compute performance. In early 2021, the company introduced Wind River Studio, a software subscription offering that incorporates their core products, as well as the cloud-enabled tools for the development, deployment, and full lifecycle management of intelligent and software solutions. Targeted and multiple industries including Telecom, Aerospace defense, as well as automotive, studio has grown quickly and represented over 10% of revenues in 2021. In 2022, revenue will continue to accelerate, with top-line growth of 12% to 15%. Wind River studio is expected to reference that 40% to 50% of the revenues by the 2024,2025 time frame. The growth in studio driven by further penetration in key industries, including automotive, will help Wind River achieve approximately 1 $ billion dollars of revenue, by 2026. As noted during our January call, the Wind River acquisition also brings financial benefits to Aptiv, including acceleration of ASUX revenues and reduced spending on third-party software. By Year 4 following the transaction, these benefits will equal an incremental$125 million of run rate earnings for Aptiv. With that, I'd like to hand the call back to Kevin for his closing remarks.
Kevin Clark:
Thanks, Joe. I'll now wrap up on Slide 19 before we open it up for questions. As we reflect on 2021 and are out for 2022, it's clear that our constant focus on innovation and flawless execution has positioned us to better support our customers and is resulting in a stronger competitive position, which we've converted into record new business bookings and revenue growth over market. While we expect near-term headwinds to persist through the better part of 2022, we remain confident in our operating execution, in our product portfolio aligned to the safe, green and connected megatrends. I'm proud of the Aptiv team and all we accomplished during a challenging 2021 but I'm even more excited about what we'll deliver during 2022. We're well-positioned to continue to outperform as a purpose-driven company with a track record and strategy to deliver significant value for our customers, our employees, and our shareholders. Operator, let's open up the line for questions.
Operator:
Thank you. [Operator Instructions]. Please ensure that your mute button has been switched off to allow your signal to reach our equipment. And in the interest of time, we ask that you limit yourselves to one question and one follow-up. [Operator Instructions]. The first question today comes from Adam Jonas of Morgan Stanley.
Adam Jonas:
Thanks, everybody. And great details on the presentation. Kevin, I asked you this a few weeks ago, but I'll ask you again. Of your order book, your record order book, are you able to give us a sense of how much of it is coming from pureplay EV customers? Customers that really have no -- that have never sold internal combustion cars versus, let's say, that the legacy group that's making the transition. And that's my first question. I got follow-up.
Kevin Clark:
Yeah. I think when you look at our mix on battery electric vehicles, and you -- or high-voltage electrification and we look at the mix between legacy and the traditional OEMs and includes some of those battery electric good companies have been around for a while, I'd say net-net about a third is with the newer battery electric vehicle companies and two-thirds with the legacy, [indiscernible] the traditional OEMs. And Adam, I would say as we move forward and as you look at growth, it's probably that mix stays roughly the same, maybe improved slightly as it relates to some of the traditional OEMs as they bring on their better electric vehicle models.
Adam Jonas:
Great. And just a follow-up on China. Would love a little color what you're seeing there. It seems like on the low-end, the domestic Chinese players are making some pretty damn good cars, Kevin, like really, really good quality, more competitive in every way. And then the higher end and on the EV side, the domestics are getting a lot more capable on the EVs and maybe to the extent, naming them, I quote a "premium." So I'm wondering if that's consistent with what you're seeing. Do you see that China -- what would be the trends in terms of domestic competency versus that kind of incumbency of the foreign players? Do you see that changing and becoming a little more in play over the next few years? Are you seeing any evidence there in real time? Thanks, Kevin.
Kevin Clark:
I would see on the OEM side, domestic competency is certainly strengthened and improved over the last 5 plus years. I think we'd say, Adam into areas that you talked about electrification. So we certainly seen an acceleration there when you look at our mix of bookings and our current revenues related -- related to battery electric vehicles, largest market we're serving. Today's Europe, the second largest is China, but China is certainly accelerating. The second area is in and around software and software-defined vehicles. We're seeing a tremendous acceleration in demand for what we're doing as it relates to smart vehicle architecture both on the hardware side and software side. And I mentioned in my prepared remarks the award that we received from Baidu related to a CVC on a vehicle that they're building with our joint venture partner that will launch in 2023. We also were awarded a CVC -- a CEC with Great Wall Motors last year as well. So we're seeing tremendous acceleration in the overall China market when you consider what you think about technology.
Adam Jonas:
Appreciate it, Kevin. Thanks.
Operator:
Okay. Now, I go to Chris McNally of Evercore.
Chris Mcnally:
Thanks so much, guys. If I could ask maybe just specifically around the secular drivers within the good GOM guide of ADAS and EV high-voltage, specifically. You've sometimes given some broad range is what you're expecting. Could you talk about 22 growth for [indiscernible] EV and ADAS?
Joseph Massaro:
Yeah, Chris, they will continue to see -- We've talked about high voltage at that of 40% growth rate. [Indiscernible] CAGR over the next couple of years continue to see that. Obviously we are getting -- it's coming down a bit just given a larger numbers and continue to see strong high [indiscernible] growth in Active Safety as well. Again, it's starting to get not necessarily as high as it's historically been, but starting to get to rather big product lines there.
Chris Mcnally:
And then Joe, on the EV specifically, is it fair -- because some of the guidance we've given is it's [indiscernible] of the market growth that we've seen be better than expected. Is that 40% in-line with market growth? So if market growth is better, we can use as a broad proxy that EV growth would be better.
Joseph Massaro:
I think if EV growth is stronger, that number should -- that number should be strong -- stronger as well, right? Whereas Kevin mentioned, we're on 50% of the launches. We've obviously got some take rate assumptions in there built on -- built on initial estimate. So we've seen -- and I think you see that to some extent in the bookings number as well. Bookings came in at 3.5 billion, obviously stronger than we were initially thinking. So I think that's a fair way to think about it.
Chris Mcnally:
And then the last one, because it is related to the 8% to 10% multiyear outlook. It's great to hear that up from the old six to eight. Is it fair that a lot of the growth is ADAS and EV? The numbers have been coming in better than expected. The orders have better than expected, but that's all pre - Wind River, right? If we start, we'll get more multi-year outlooks. But your growth over market, including sort of that -- the acquisition we could actually get maybe a point above that, just looking at the Wind River, a high-level growth over the next three to four years.
Joseph Massaro:
Yeah. The guide -- yeah, there is completely separate at this point, right? Just given we haven't closed the deal yet. So the Wind River numbers are separate. As we talked about on January 12th call, there's good growth coming from that new subscriptions studio product. We see that continuing and really being the growth driver there. And that would obviously be incremental to what we've talked about in the 8% to 10%. That does not include Wind River.
Chris Mcnally:
Okay, great, thanks so much, guys.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Rod Lache of Wolfe Research.
Rod Lache:
Hi, everybody.
Kevin Clark:
Good morning Rod. Hey Rod?
Rod Lache:
Kevin, during your prepared remarks, you mentioned strong underlying profitability improvement. I'm looking at the midpoint of your 2022 guidance with an EBITDA margin of 10.5% and obviously between 2014 and '18, you were doing 12%, 13% margins pretty routinely, and I get that inefficiencies and premium freight and input costs have been I think maybe even 400 basis points of drag here in the between '21 and '22. But could you talk a little bit about what you're targeting over the next couple of years, and how you get there because I don't see much difference on the pricing side, at least in your near-term forecast.
Kevin Clark:
Yeah. Rod, that's a great question. Listen, I think as you think about the environment that we've been operating in over the last two years and continue to operate in as it relates to COVID safety protocols, more recently the level of supply chain disruption that has resulted in inefficiency in the supply chain, just as you mentioned, increased freight both inbound as well as outbound. When you think -- when you look at manufacturing inefficiencies, when you look at material cost inflation, the numbers are significant just as you said. They're massive. And that's something that we're working -- where we continue to work through. What we've made progress on during 2021, we'll continue to make more progress on 2022. But we're [indiscernible] away. Underneath that when you look at how we're operating from a manufacturing performance standpoint, separating those periods where we're dealing with [indiscernible] or volatility in production. When you look at what we're doing from an engineering productivity standpoint, when you look at what we're doing from a footprint standpoint S G&A productivity standpoint, we continue to make significant progress. So we continue to make significant progress. And then overlay on top of that, the places where we operate in the mix of our product portfolio as it relates to ADAS, as it relates to high-voltage electrification, as it relates to both engineered components within the automotive and non-automotive space, and then software, the reality is those are much higher margin product areas. And as they continue to ramp, as we normalize the supply chain, as -- hopefully, there's reduced pressure as it relates to COVID and some of the safety protocols that we have in place, all that drops to the bottom line. Now, having said that over the last couple of years, we've also made the decision to invest incremental dollars in advanced development programs in and around principally smart vehicle architecture, both hardware and software. That's translated into a significant competitive position which gives us tremendous opportunity as we look out into the future, both hardware as well as software. Over the last 12 months to 18 months, as we said before, I think we've done 10 advanced development programs. We've been awarded four or five programs commercially as it relates to CVCs and PDCs from a from a SVA standpoint. We have line of sight to over 20 additional programs that relate to SVA, the transition to SVA software and hardware, and we're well-positioned to win a significant amount of that business. So it was smart investment. So as we look out into the future in terms of growth, obviously, we've increased our outlook for growth over market given the investments we've made. As we worked through the challenges related to supply chain and COVID, you'll see obviously significant margin enhancement as a result of reduction in those costs. And then the nature of our product portfolio where we sit, we think you ultimately end up with a much higher margin, much more cash-generative business out in the future.
Rod Lache:
Can you just remind us what mid-decade margin targets look like? And just my second question is nice to see the bookings. I was hoping you can maybe drill down in the Active Safety. That $2.8 billion of bookings, how does that compare versus the past couple of years? And are you seeing any changes to the nature of what you're winning? Our automakers or even your partner, [indiscernible], they're taking on different responsibility and you taking on different responsibilities. Is that something that we should be cognizant of it in any way?
Kevin Clark:
Sure. So the bookings this year, $2.888 billion, it's not our highest year from an overall active safety booking year. I think our record year was close to $4 billion reflecting the wins on our initial satellite architecture programs across five OEMs that are currently rolling out across those OEMS. There's a whole next-generation of advanced ADAS solutions that we'll be pursuing during 2022 and 2023, as we continue to enhance our active safety platform as it relates to our competitive position. Our perspective is it's actually strengthening. Aptiv safety, as you know, is an important feature for our OEM customers. The market today, 60% of the vehicles being put on the road today have Aptiv safety systems, that leaves a significant portion that will be adopting Aptiv safety over the next several years, so significant market growth opportunity and penetration opportunity. The fastest growth areas in and around L2 and L2 plus, which is actually where most strongly positioned from a competency standpoint, given our overall platform and our capabilities. As it relates to OEMS, I would say it's -- Rod, it's all over the map. We have OEMS where we're doing the full platform for the OEMs, all the future development, the hardware, the software, the sensor fusion, the integration. We have other OEMs where we're integrating their solution into our platform. And we want to provide our OEM customers with the flexibility to do that. As it relates to other competitors, listen, it's a huge, fast-growing market, right? Any market where your players like ourselves growing north of 20% per year, it attracts attention. And there are a number of players who are trying to enter the market. I think it's a challenge if you haven't been in it a long period of time. We have business with over 20 OEMS across the globe. So our ability to develop, deliver cost-effective solutions, I would argue is better than anyone else's out -- anyone else out there, including OEMs who may decide to do more on their own. But we're about enabling OEMs to go down the path that they would like to go down -- the path that they want to go down and while we do that, obviously generate revenue and profitable revenue growth. But having said that, big opportunity, we have a strong competitive position in this area that we're certainly focused on.
Joseph Massaro:
Rod, it's Joe. Just on the mid-decade margin targets, obviously, we're still very much focused on the targets we laid out in 2019. There's obviously, as Kevin laid out, challenges with the disruption and the inflation costs. So it's a question of how long to work back to those and we will have a Capital Markets day in the second half of this year and we'll be updating the long-term view then.
Rod Lache:
Okay. Thank you.
Joseph Massaro:
Yeah.
Operator:
We can go to Joe Spak of RBC Capital Markets.
Joseph Spak:
Thanks. Good morning. Joe, just to go back to maybe some of the puts and takes in the '22 outlook. The $200 million performance you're talking about, that seems to mostly offset the 2% price-downs you're seeing. I think throughout '21, you talked about all these inefficiencies and the plan from choppy schedules and higher logistics. So I guess I'm a little bit surprised that maybe that performance number is not a little bit higher. Are you assuming that some of that scheduled volatility remains or is some of that [indiscernible] into that supply chain cost bucket? Maybe you could just help a little bit with that. Yeah, that's in that a $100 million Joe the bulk of that was the disruption costs shutting down plant. So we've assumed obviously some of that stays. I'd say schedules in the first half of the year. You start with smooth schedules, right? Nobody plans, nobody plans to lumpiness. We actually had a little bit of disruption in January at the end of the month that we knew was coming. But that performance, the improvement is really included in that $100 million. We took that out of performance just to be able to keep the two buckets that we've outlined, sort of the supply chain -- the COVID and supply chain disruption bucket, and the inflation buckets. We wanted to sort of maintain those into 2022 just to give people line-of-sight with what was happening with them. And then on just on the pricing, can you talk about the conversations you're having with automakers and the ability to recover or price for some of those inflationary headwinds?
Kevin Clark:
Yeah. We're in conversations with several OEMs. I would say we're making actually very good progress but it's something that we continue to work through. I think, by and large, the OEM community recognizes the challenges in the supply chain and the costs suppliers have incurred in keeping them connected. We made a decision, Joe, and we've talked about this that we were going to do everything we could to make sure that our OEM customers are building cars. And that's resulted in incremental costs and I would say most of the OEMs that we've been negotiating with have appreciated that, have supported us -- have supported what we've done and effectively we reached satisfactory resolution in terms of the sharing of some or all that cost.
Joseph Spak:
Okay. Thank you. Maybe -- just one quick one. I noticed in the guidance the [indiscernible] loss picks up. That makes sense as I think you're getting closer -- or they're getting closer to commercialization or launch. Can you just update us on the capitalization and funding there? Because I think when Hyundai put in $1.6 billion. So based on this run rate, it seems like maybe around 23 or 24 there could be capital requirements, but maybe you could just give us an update there on your thinking.
Joseph Massaro:
Yeah, we were thinking from a -- we'll call it a full-year perspective, Joe. It really hasn't changed. When we did the deal, we had cash through 2024. They still have cash through 2024,
Kevin Clark:
Obviously, this may pull them up a couple of quarters, but that multiyear of level of funding is still in that we talked about March of 2020. So next couple of years are fully funded, and we'll obviously -- over the coming quarters, we'll be working with Hyundai and the Motional team on next steps there. But you're right. They are making really good progress. They're starting to commercialize or they're ready for commercialization. So the activity is ticking up.
Joseph Spak:
Thank you.
Operator:
Our next question comes from John Murphy of Bank of America.
John Murphy:
Good morning, guys. I just wanted to follow-up on those question around pricing. The reality is you guys are bringing a lot of technology to the table and helping your automakers advance their products, stuff that they can price for. But at the same time, you're getting jammed on cost inflation, on raws and labor, and everything else. And they're able to pass this through and offset it through the pricing at the retail level, but they're not really helping you guys out here. So I'm just curious as these discussions move forward, even just outside of what's going on at the moment and the extreme pressure at the industry and the supply chain is facing, is there anything changing in the dynamic of the relationship here on pricing or loss, or collaboration? Because it just seems like they need you more than ever. But right now, they're making out pretty well from passing pricing through. But you're getting stuck in the sandwich share.
Kevin Clark:
Yes. John, it's a good question. Listen, periodically we've been asked question about the pricing environment in the automotive industry, and I think our standard answer, it's true today is it's a challenging industry as it relates to pricing. And our OEM customers are always looking for price. However, I would say in this particular case, there actually is a fair amount of recognition, cooperation, and collaboration between most OEMs and the supply base. There are some, it's a bit more challenging and we're working through. There are various levers that we have in terms of ensuring that we get compensated as it relates to incremental costs that are above and beyond, and overextended period of time, the costs that we would normally incur. But I would say by and large, the environment hasn't changed and -- from a pricing standpoint. And we just need to work through the various cost levers, both on the supply side, as well as on the customer side to offset that, and I'll take a little bit of time to do that. I'd say there is an element of the costs we're incurring as I mentioned. We're doing it consciously. We're supporting the OEMs as they launched some of these key programs. And we think over the medium to long term, that will create a lot of benefit. As it relates to your point on dependency, listen, I know there's this increase narrative. I think it's a great question, because there's this increase narrative about OEMs doing more. But the reality, I can tell you, there is virtually no OEM that we are launching programs that have a high software content level where OEMs are actually coming back to us and asking us to do more of the software development application activity than what was originally in the program. And as we announced the -- after we announced the Wind River acquisition, one of the great things about it is I -- we got calls from several OEMs with respect to, can we schedule meetings to sit out, to talk about what we in Wind River can bring to help them as they wrestle through the challenges associated with the growth of software in the vehicle, and those areas that they have an interest in developing the software, as well as those areas where they have other suppliers that are struggling and delivering the software solution. So again, understand there's a lot of narrative about in-sourcing and vertically integrating, especially in areas like software. I think a lot of that is driven by impression related to a West Coast-based battery electric vehicle company. But I would say our automotive OEM -- but I would say with the exception of that automotive OEM, virtually all the OEMs that we're doing business with are struggling with software development.
John Murphy:
Yeah. That makes a lot of sense. Just two housekeeping real quick. The bookings of 24 billion, what kind of volume assumptions are going into that? They could be $85 million or $100 million. We're time on how you think about the backdrop of volume [indiscernible] that bookings number. How do you think about that Joe?
Joseph Massaro:
Yeah. John, [indiscernible] for our revenue forecast, we obviously use our customer schedules and stuff. But for bookings, we always use IHS when the bookings are struck. So there's no -- we always have a reference point to go back to. So the Q4 bookings would have been based on IHS outlooks for those years going out. Once we get into start production stuff, we always use IHS for bookings.
John Murphy:
So if anything, the long-term value of those might be undercut by some of the near-term pressures. Is that a fair statement?
Joseph Massaro:
Yeah. They will flex with vehicle production. I mean, I think we've over time have gotten to a point where we're comfortable -- well I'll say washes out from a bookings perspective as it gets time for revenue, it's close enough, but we never wanted to introduce momentary subjectivity into quantification of bookings. We always use IHS.
John Murphy:
And then just wanted to follow-up I'm sorry. It CSD, Kevin, you mentioned you had 50 companies run through the booth. 25 we're automakers are OEMs, who are the other 25? Where they supplier partner in TTTech Companies. A lot of Big Fish looking at make acquisitions here I'm just curious who else came through the fruits and there's other 25 Companies.
Kevin Clark:
[Indiscernible] partners. So I would say 50 parties came through the booth, 25 OEMs, some of them physically, some of them virtually. So I want to make sure I'm clear on that. Actually, a lot of them virtually. But as you can imagine, a lot of OEM interest across both our SPS as well as our ASUX business, so people in and around vehicle architectures as well as Advanced Safety and User Experience. And then a number of our supplier partners or potential supplier partners.
John Murphy:
Okay, great. Thank you very much, guys.
Joseph Massaro:
Thanks, John.
Operator:
We can go to Brian Johnson of [indiscernible] please.
Brian Johnson:
Thank you. Just want to follow up on your comments on Wind River and the opportunities in the software stack that it opens. I guess two questions. First, Wind River under intel, it doubled in value, but [indiscernible] amount compared to what TPG eventually sold it to you for. Some of the feedback from the semi-community was that Wind River was kind of lackluster. Some people point to fingers at Intel, Intel fans point the finger at management. I know TPG brought in new management, but first question is, can you give us a sense of their momentum coming into the acquisition? And then the second question is, RTOS definitely needed in some ADAS applications, but some of the questions we've been getting is that so far down the stack that it really doesn't get you much in terms of discussions around application software. So you can talk about that?
Kevin Clark:
Yeah. Now, it's a great question. As it relates to Wind River, listen, I think there was an element of history Wind River where it was a sleepy company at one point in time and you highlighted the fact that under TPG ownership they came in and they significantly refreshed the management team and put in a very strong present CEO who's brought in a very, very strong talent with, I'd say, contemporary software capabilities. And Brian, we had the opportunity, well in advance, of deciding that we should evaluate a more strategic relationship. We had the ability to work with the team as it relates to designing, developing a tech roadmap that we could take from industries like telecommunications, aerospace, and defense that had or have some of the same challenges that we're experiencing in automotive today. But solutions were developed and delivered by Wind River, where they've had a tremendous amount of success. And we had the chance to effectively test drive as a part of our commercial negotiations. So a tremendous amount of time spent with the management team accompany with a very, very strong management team. As you look at automotive and you look at the broad portfolio, listen, it's not just about our costs. The benefit, it's a company that's familiar with automotive vehicle architecture and middleware, they have experience as it relates to in-device software, both with VxWorks as well as Linux Lx with hypervisors. So they know what legacy approaches were, but they come with the benefit of having developed more contemporary approaches from the telco, and aerospace, and defense industries. And when you look at it, it's not just about in-device software in the operating system, right? It's really about the off-device software platform that really provides or will provide customers or users with the ability. Again, we look at it from a development deploy, operate in service the overall vehicle, over the life of the vehicle versus your certainly familiar with this, the current model where you layer in Middleware and the vehicle once and you're done. So it's not just about our costs, it's not just about the in-device software, it's also about the tool chain. And the optimized software and platform that makes software development much more efficient, much more effective.
Joseph Massaro:
Brian, it's Joe. I'll just --
Brian Johnson:
Okay. Sure.
Joseph Massaro:
Sorry, just on the numbers. Listen, I think -- and that's why we provided some of the information in the deck. I mean, clearly, the business, I think, languished under Intel. I don't know why. I wasn't there, obviously. But I but it went down to about $300 million in revenues. I think it actually contracted and it was at that level for a number of years and as you can see, it's growing now. It's grown over the last couple of years and that growth is accelerating. The Studio product which is what Kevin's referring to which is this containerized RTOS and middleware was launched in Q1 of 2021 [indiscernible] already represents over 10% of the business. So that's really where the growth is and I think your statement is true as of today, right? There are several middleware RTOS solutions that you can technically put into a vehicle. What we're really talking about is the containerized full lifecycle management typing. Wind River is the only containerized RTOS out there at this point. The others used an automotive are none. And so, there's a little bit of where the puck is going versus where it is today when we talk about their capabilities.
Brian Johnson:
Okay. And just as a follow-up, is this -- you mentioned the calls that you are getting. As you mentioned earlier, a lot of OEMs are building up big software organizations, often recruiting leaders from outside automotive to run those. Are you getting into those kind of senior management levels? You don't have to say the names, but I'm thinking someone like a Doug Field over at Ford level of person leading the software groups.
Kevin Clark:
Yeah. Our engagements are at very, very senior levels within the OEMs.
Brian Johnson:
Okay. Thanks. Look forward to continuing in that for the few weeks in [indiscernible] conference.
Kevin Clark:
Thanks, Brian.
Operator:
Now, we can go to David Kelley of Jefferies.
David Kelley:
Hey, good morning, guys. Thanks for squeezing me in. The next-gen driver monitoring platform launches you noted. Are you finding that you're winning the active safety platforms attached to DMS as well? We're just curious if there's correlation in some OEM bias to consolidate there. And is there a way to think about DMS content per vehicle opportunity for you?
Kevin Clark:
Yes. Listen, traditionally when you think about the DMS, it's historically fallen in a category that was in around User Experience versus Active Safety. But as you've seen more advanced Active Safety programs introduced to the market. So when you think about L2 plus L3, the need for driver monitoring, we've referred to it really is in-cabin sensing of a much broader application and just driver monitoring. You've seen an uptick of demand and more discussion or more integration in and around the Active Safety system or Active Safety platform, which we think, given our position in ADAS, especially in the L2 plus space, given our experience with DMS, as well is now increasingly in-cabin sensing, it puts us in a great opportunity. As it relates to market, the market's decent size today is one of the fastest-growing markets that we operate in. I don't have the numbers, Joe. I don't know if you have market size numbers or content per vehicle, but it's certainly meaningful.
Joseph Massaro:
Yeah. No. They are really interesting thing, the content per vehicle for this type of stuff varies a lot, as Kevin said, it depends on where it's going in and what it's replacing. But what's interesting is a lot of it's incremental. So if you're talking about $10 or $12 for DSM software per vehicle, that's really incremental. It's going in on top of what's in there now, so it really depends on what you're -- what part of it you're referring to, but you tend to see a lot of incremental content going into existing either user experience systems, if it's still within the cockpit, like gesture recognition, those types of things, or some of the perception systems that are being used augmenting the active safety.
David Kelley:
Okay. Got it. Thank you. And then maybe one follow-up, the wireless charging conquest win. Can you just give us a sense high level of your role there? What you'll be providing and is that on vehicles only or is there an infrastructure aspect to it as well?
Kevin Clark:
That particular program is on vehicle. It's both hardware as well as software. As I think you know, we obviously do provide charge couplers and other things that are off vehicle for OEMs but not in this particular case.
David Kelley:
Okay. Got it. Thank you.
Operator:
And we can go to Ittai Miceli of Citibank.
Ittai Miceli:
Great. Thanks. Good morning. Just two quick follow-ups for me on the new eight to ten points GOM target. First, can you maybe articulate what annual bookings number you would target to achieve the eight to ten points? And then maybe what portion of the eight to ten points is coming from non-auto? Thank you.
Kevin Clark:
Ittai, I am not sure. As you know, bookings can be lumpy. So from an annual standpoint, I think it's tough to give you a direct or an exact number. I guess one where when you look at our current ratio between revenue and bookings, it would be something consistent. Last year as we mentioned, we did $24 billion this year. We expect to do $24 billion or more on our baseline of revenues. So I would say on an annual basis somewhere in that zip code. Joe, I don't know about non-automotive.
Joseph Massaro:
Yeah, I'd call it about a point. Ittai, it generally adds to that growth over market, the commercial vehicle and industrial.
Ittai Miceli:
Got it. Great, that's all I have. Thank you.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Dan Levy of Credit Suisse.
Dan Levy:
Hi. Good morning. Thank you for squeezing me in. First, I want to go to the end-market guidance. You're assuming production up six globally, that's below the third-party forecasts. And then more recently we heard GM talked about 25% to 30% volume growth, which is a sizable customer for you. So maybe you could just help reconcile your assumption versus some of the other views in the market or is it just conservatism more than anything else?
Joseph Massaro:
At this point, it's schedules, Dan. So we are looking at customer schedules and have those layered in. Obviously, for the first four or five months, there fairly detailed schedules. And then obviously, there longer-term production forecast. So, there's no sort of overlay at this point, particularly in the near-term because we have to obviously be ordering inventory and getting the plants ready to produce. I'd tell -- I'd say the biggest difference, I think, I just
Kevin Clark:
is eight. I tell you the biggest difference when we look at some of the third party is probably the ramp in the year. As we look at customer schedules, it's a slow start to the year. I referenced that in my prepared remarks. We think the first half's flat - ish -- flat, flattish, and then ramping in the back half of the year. And I think that's just where we are relative to supply chain constraints and ability to ramp up. So as we do look obviously, and calibrate our schedules off what others are saying. That tended to be the biggest difference that we saw.
Dan Levy:
Okay. Got it. Thank you. And then my follow-up. Sorry, I want to go back to the in-sourcing question. I want to ask it in a different way. In the quarter we saw a large automaker from JV with one of the chip companies and one of the things they're talking about is, not only just how they're sourcing chips for components but also maybe taking more of a proactive design on -- a more proactive approach on inputting the design of those components and specifically on the electronics side whereas in the past maybe they would just buy a box from you or name another supplier that is -- you control all the sourcing and the design. Now, they want to take a more proactive approach. So how much of that is a trend?And if there is a more proactive approach from the OEMs on dictating design of what they're getting from you, how does that affect what you're providing them?
Kevin Clark:
Yeah. Listen, I think as your specific question as it relates to OEMs and OEMs interacting with semiconductor players, that's actually gone through a number of years. And on certain applications, whether it be within the user experience or infotainment space, or the ADAS space, there are OEM preferences as it relates to certain semiconductor players. More often than not, that relates to economics and volumes versus technology, as it relates to the OEM being more involved in chip design or technology or software going on the chip, I think it depends on what activity the OEM is considering or bringing to the table for what particular application. So I would need more specifics on that. I would say a lot of -- again, going back to my initial point, software in the vehicle is tripling over the next eight years. So there's a lot of software going into the vehicle. So a big opportunity, obviously, OEMs want to be involved in a part of that just like they have in the past. So I would say that's too. I think as it relates to that, the interactions with semiconductor players, that's going on for years. It thinks it's probably heightened a bit from a supply chain standpoint, just given what we've all gone through the last year or so. And I'd say you'd see a bit of a mixed bag. There is some OEMs who are trying to get closer to the semiconductor players. There are other OEMs that really the business model has not changed, but certainly want more visibility, more transparency, more understanding of the supply chain.
Dan Levy:
And are you seeing your customer is dictating more to you which chips you need to use? Or is that just the trend that's always been going on, that sometimes you will have some customers that you have to use chips from such and such company is?
Kevin Clark:
Yeah. I wouldn't say at this point in time we're seeing any more or less than what we have historically. I think we've seen more announcements.
Dan Levy:
Got it. Thank you.
Operator:
Our final question today comes from Steven Fox of Fox Advisors.
Steven Fox:
Hi, thanks for squeezing me in. Good morning. I just one question from me. When you look to the full-year guidance and the back-half improvements. We were sitting here a year ago talking about back-half improvements have been happening for various reasons, not necessarily of your fall. So I'm just trying to gauge the confidence level that we reached a period here where you could start to see some improvements in supply chain and inflation and any kind of risk you're gauging going forward. Thanks.
Kevin Clark:
Yes. Listen, it's obviously we're -- we put out a guide. We're confident in the guide for the full year. Supply chain disruptions are getting better. There are still constraints. But if you look at it and some of this, or particularly in the back half is going to be just lapping what was very, very disruptive production schedules. If you look at August, September into October, so things -- flow is getting better. We've got line of sight on the supply we need for the balance of the year from the chip guys. Things are still tight. It's expensive to operate. The chips are costing more. There's still going to be some premium freight, that's really reflected in those disruption costs. But again, we do see it getting better and we do see line of sight to things flow -- product flow improving as the year goes on.
Steven Fox:
And the risks to the forecast on all the supply chain inflation issues?
Joseph Massaro:
The way we've thought about it, it's really within the range, Steven. So at the lower end of the range, we've obviously got -- our view would be that would bring in more costs. So we've tried to manage that within the full-year range which -- again one of the reasons, it's hard to call that obviously by quarter but I'd really think of it at this point. The risk is really within the range to the downside and to some extent if things were to get better faster from a material flow perspective, that's reflective of the -- in the higher end of the range.
Steven Fox:
Great, that's really helpful. Thank you.
Kevin Clark:
Thank you.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, that is all the time we have for today's fourth quarter Aptiv 2021 earnings call. We'll be [indiscernible] for your participation. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Good day and welcome to the Aptiv Third Quarter 2021 Earnings Call. Today's conference is being recorded. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Vicky Apostolakos, Director of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
Vicky Apostolakos:
Thank you, Sasha. Good morning and thank you for joining at this Third Quarter 2021 Earnings Conference Call. The press release and related tables along with the slide presentation can be found on our Investor Relations portion of our website at aptiv.com. Today's review of our financials excludes restructuring and other special items, and will address the continuing operations of Aptiv. The reconciliations between GAAP and non-GAAP measures for both our Q3 financials, as well as our full year 2021 outlook are included in the back of the presentation and on the earnings press release. During today's call, we will be providing certain forward-looking information which results -- which reflects Aptiv's current view of future financial performance. And maybe materially different from our actual performance for reasons that we site in our Form 10-K and other SEC filings, including uncertainties posed by the COVID-19 pandemic, and the difficulty in predicting its future course an impact on the supply chain and global economy. Joining us today are Kevin Clark, Aptiv President and CEO, and Joe Massaro, CFO and Senior Vice President of Business Operations. Kevin will provide a strategic update on the business and Joe will cover the financial results and full-year outlook in more detail before opening the call to Q&A. With that, I would now like to turn the call over to Kevin Clark.
Kevin Clark :
Sure. Thank you, Vicki, and thanks everyone for joining us this morning. Beginning on Slide 3, we experienced continued strong demand across the portfolio in the third quarter despite continued supply chain constraints negatively impacting vehicle production. Revenues of $3.7 billion declined 5% versus the prior year with a record 18 points of growth over market. New business awards of $5.8 billion, bringing the year-to-date total to a record $17 billion, reflecting the relevance of our product portfolio as well as the trust our customers have on Aptiv given our success executing for them in this challenging environment. Operating income and earnings per share totaled $219.03 million respectively, negatively impacted by the significant headwinds from the ongoing supply chain tightness and the downstream impacts that Joe will cover in greater detail shortly. While we expect vehicle production to improve on a sequential basis in the fourth quarter, we anticipate the headwinds related to supply chain constraints to persist well into 2022. Setting the near-term challenges aside, the team is executing well and continues proactively position Aptiv for the future, optimizing our cost structure while investing in high-growth, high-margin technologies that further enhance the resiliency of our business model, translating into greater value for both our customers and our shareholders. Moving to Slide 4, the relentless execution of our strategy over the past decade has positioned Aptiv as a more sustainable business, creating over $40 billion of value since our IPO in 2011. This represents an average annual return to shareholders of over 25% and a total return of more than 950% to date. As we transformed Aptiv, we built an industry-leading portfolio of advanced solutions that make vehicles safe, green, and more connected. To drive this transformation, we took several actions including making smart portfolio moves to put further operating leverage in our business model. We exited low-growth, low-margin product lines and spun off our Powertrain segment positioning Aptiv to focus on our unique capabilities around the brain and nervous system of the vehicle. At the same time, we completed a number of acquisitions which enabled our software and data management capabilities, increased our scale and leverage and engineered components, and expanded our presence in adjacent markets. Last year, we established Motional, our autonomous driving joint venture with Hyundai, which will be operating fully driverless vehicles on the Lyft ride-sharing network in 2023. These proactive actions perfectly position Aptiv to benefit from the transition to the software-defined vehicle, while further increasing the robustness of our business model. All which translates into continued outperformance and long-term value creation. Turning to Slide 5. We continue to successfully navigate the current challenging environment while proactively enhancing the strength of our competitive position. Our supply chain resiliency team is leveraging technology, data, and analytics to stress test our integrated supply chain network under multiple scenarios. Helping us to proactively identify and address potential bottlenecks. At the same time, we're working through daily constraints by leveraging our proven cross-functional crisis management process. Our planning process [Indiscernible] manufacturing has enabled us to support a record number of customer program launches. And we continue the intelligent automation of our manufacturing facilities to lower operating costs and increase product quality. All of which improves customer service levels. Our engineering teams are proactively redesigning products to mitigate semiconductor supply risk, reduced material costs, and increased functionality for our customers. And lastly, our culture of continuous improvement translates into the constant pursuit of opportunities to reduce costs and improve quality, enabling us to continue to strengthen our operating foundation and transform our business model despite the dynamic environment. As shown on Slide 6, third quarter new business bookings reached $5.8 billion, bringing the year-to-date total to $17 billion. As I already mentioned, it was a record. Our unique portfolio of safe, green, and connected technology combined with our flawless operating execution continues to position Aptiv as a partner of choice for our customers. Our capabilities around the vehicle brain and nervous system in collaborative approach to platform solutions sets us apart in the industry, enabling us to conceive, specify, and deliver advanced architecture and software solutions that enhance systems performance while lowering the vehicle's total costs, positioning us to increase our share of wallet with both traditional and emerging OEM customers and at the same time strengthen our overall competitive position. Turning to highlights from our advanced safety and user experience segment on Slide 7. Third quarter revenues declined 7%, which was 16 points better than the reduction in global vehicle production. New program launches, content increases in market share gains translated into continued market outgrowth, despite the significant supply chain disruptions impacting the segment. Consumers continue to demand more Aptiv safety and connectivity features in their vehicles, which are delivered through more advanced software features, leveraging the latest sensing and compute solutions. This trend and strong consumer demand and our industry-leading capabilities presents us with additional market share opportunities and the ability to increase our customer share of wallet. And is evidenced by our third quarter Conquest Business Award with Mercedes-Benz to provide our multi-purpose interior sensing solutions on their next-gen electric vehicle platform. This business award built on our recent in-cabin monitoring successes and advances our customer's road map of interior sensing features by further enhancing driver safety and improving the in-cabin user experience. The evolution of in-cabin sensing is playing out as expected, and our leadership position makes Aptiv a strong collaboration partner for our customers. Turning to Slide 8. Revenues in our Signal and Power Solutions segment declined 4% during the quarter, 19 points better than the reduction in global vehicle production, reflecting the continued benefit from the acceleration and the production of electrified vehicles, resulting in greater demand for our high-voltage solutions and the continued strong demand for connector and cable management products for both automotive and not automotive market applications. We're the industry leader in electrical distribution systems with the engineering capabilities and global manufacturing scale necessary to rapidly build custom -- rapidly bring customers to market as they quickly adapt to the accelerating macro trends. A great example is our recent business awards, [Indiscernible] an extension to our existing business to support design changes in content increases on the ramp truck. It was another strong quarter for our Signal and Power Solutions segments in a very challenging environment. Slide 9 provides an overview of some of the specific areas where we're focusing our software development capabilities. As we've mentioned previously, our OEM customers are beginning to decouple software from the underlying hardware, both tactically as they implement smart vehicle architecture, and in how they source new programs. Our leading position in the design and development of high-performance, cost-optimized automotive-grade hardware, as well as deep software development capabilities, allows us to provide industry-leading interior and exterior perception solutions. modular software and features that lower system costs and accelerate speed-to-market through higher reuse, middleware solutions which support up integration and the serverization of compute, vehicle lifecycle management through data collection and data analytics, and full vehicle level integration, testing, and validation services. These capabilities along with extensive collaboration with our customers and our supplier partners allows us to continue to be a partner of choice for our customers across literally all vehicle domain, enable our customers to offer greater flexibility for end-user differentiation and personalization, and further strengthen our competitive position as a leading provider of smart vehicle architecture that accelerates the transition to the fully electrified, software-defined vehicle. With that, I'll hand the call over to Joe to take us through the financials in more details.
Joseph Massaro:
Great. Thanks, Kevin. And good morning, everyone. Starting with Slide 10, the business continued to outperform the market despite the challenging environment Kevin referenced. Revenues of $3.7 million were down 5% with record 18% growth over market and market outgrowth in every region. Adjusted EBITDA and operating income were $412 million and $219 million, respectively, reflecting year-over-year headwinds, primarily COVID and supply chain disruption costs of $55 million and $40 million from FX/Commodities and input costs. Earnings per share in the quarter were $0.38 and operating cash flow was $4 million, reflecting higher inventory levels resulting from customer schedule reductions and longer lead time requirements from certain suppliers, as well as the lower earnings levels. Looking at the third quarter revenues in more detail on Slide 11, we continued to experience demand for higher contented vehicles driving strong growth over market across all regions despite lower vehicle production levels. Favorable FX and commodity movements were offset by lower production volumes in the quarter. From a regional perspective, North America revenues were down 7%, representing 16 points of growth over market, driven by the ramp in Aptiv Safety launch volumes and a favorable truck and SUV platform mix. In Europe, strong double-digit outgrowth of 19% due to robust customer launch activity and higher volumes in our high-voltage electrification product line. Lastly in China, revenues reflecting 17 points of growth over market resulting from growth with leading local OEM s and strong high-voltage growth. Moving to the segments on the next slide. Advanced safety and user experience revenues fell 7% in the quarter, translating to 16 points of growth over underlying vehicle production. Including strong growth in Active safety and somewhat lower market outgrowth in user experience driven by the timing of new program launches. Segment EBITDA was down $46 million driven by supply chain disruption and higher input costs primarily related to semiconductors. Signal and Power Solutions revenues were down 4%, representing 19% growth over market. The market outperformance was driven by continued strength in our high-voltage product portfolio, as well as strong outgrowth in commercial, vehicle, and industrial end-markets. EBITDA in the segment was down $123 million in the quarter on lower sale volumes and additional costs from supply chain disruptions and higher FX commodities and input costs. Turning to our outlook for the remainder of the year in the next slide, our revenues and operating margin remained unchanged from the outlook we provided in mid-October. We continue to expect revenue in the range of $15.1 to $15.5 billion, up over 10% compared to the prior year. We expect global vehicle production to be roughly flat for the full year, translating into over 10 points of growth above market, demonstrating the relevance and diversity of our portfolio and product lines. EBITDA and operating income are expected to be approximately $2 billion and $1.2 billion at the midpoint, with strong year-over-year sales volume conversion. Despite further COVID and supply chain disruption costs, this is now estimated to be $310 million for the year, up a $170 million over the prior year, and FX Commodity and other rising input costs of $195 million, mainly driven by semiconductor in [Indiscernible] pricing. Product line level margins continue to be aligned with our expectations, validating the strength of our market -- of our portfolio of market relevant technologies. Lastly, we expect earnings per share of $2.55 at the midpoint and operating cash flow of $1.2 billion. Turning to Slide 14, as we have discussed, the combined benefits of our strong product portfolio and robust business model enabled us to convert more income to cash, generating higher operating cash flow. We now expect the operating cash flow of $1.2 billion in 2021 driven by increased earnings, offset by higher inventory investment, and continued investments in growth. As you can see in the middle of the slide, we ended the third quarter with $2.7 billion in total cash, enabling us to manage through the current environment while supporting record year-to-date new business awards and launch activities. Lastly, our investment in working capital helps ensure we are ready to keep our customers running in this challenging environment, making Aptiv a key partner of choice. Turning to Slide 15, despite the variability and lack of forward visibility in customer production schedules, we wanted to provide some initial thoughts on the outlook for 2022. We continue to believe that the supply chain disruptions will impact overall vehicle production levels in the coming year, particularly in the first half of 2022. Despite these challenges, our strategy remains unchanged and we believe we are very well-positioned to lead the continued transition to higher contented, software-enabled vehicles with increasing levels of Active safety and Powertrain electrification. Although it is still early in the planning process for 2022, we are confident in our ability to outgrow the market driven by continued acceleration of the safe, green, and connective megatrends. With that said, we do believe 2022 vehicle production will be impacted by supply chain constraints and that the industry will not return to pre -pandemic production levels until post 2022. As it relates to material input costs, we continue to make traction on our mitigation initiatives, including supplier recovery strategies, engineering redesign, and alternative source of valuations, as well as engaging in commercial discussions with our customers. Although we will see some benefit from these initiatives, it is unlikely that the full impact of the elevated input costs is offset in the coming year. Additional costs related to supply chain disruptions, including elevated transportation and freight costs, as well as the costs associated with the intermittent production disruptions will continue into next year. As we have discussed, these costs are not structural in nature and will ease as supply chain s and material availability improve over the course of 2022. Finally, the actions we've taken over the prior years to drive underlying product line profitability and established the Company's strong financial position will allow us to continue to invest in new technologies, both organically and inorganically, while supporting our new business-pursued activities. As we've consistently demonstrated, these investments will ensure that we continue to deliver disciplined revenue growth well beyond 2022 and the current industry operating challenges. With that, I will turn the call back to Kevin for his closing remarks.
Kevin Clark :
Thanks, Joe. I'll wrap up on Slide 16 before we open it up for questions. While near-term headwinds are expected to persist into 2022 as Joe 's mentioned, we remain confident in our product portfolio aligned to the Safe, Green, and Connected Megatrends. As we reflect on our recent operating performance, it's clear to us that our relentless focus on innovation and flawless execution, is allowing us to better support our customers and is resulting in increased momentum related to new business bookings and strong market outgrowth, a further widening of our competitive moat, and a continued strong track record of delivering sustainable value creation. As I mentioned at the start of our presentation, Aptiv's been on an exciting journey these last 10 years. But the team is even more excited about what we'll deliver over the next decade. Beginning with providing our customers with new, cost-effective, innovative solutions that enabled the future mobility that serve to accelerate the trend to a more safe, green, and connected world and translate into continued outsized returns for our shareholders. In summary, we remain laser-focused on continuing to build a more resilient business that consistently delivers for our customers and our shareholders over the next 10 years, effectively advancing our vision of the Company in 2025 and beyond. With that, let's open up the line for Q&A.
Operator:
Thank you. [Operator Instructions] If you're using a speaker phone, please make sure your mute function is turned off to allow your signal to reach our equipment. In the interest of time, please limit yourself to one question and one follow up. [Operator Instructions] Our first question today comes from Rod Lache from Wolfe Research. Please go ahead.
Rod Lache :
Good morning, everybody.
Joseph Massaro :
Hey, Rod.
Rod Lache :
Was hoping maybe you could, first of all, clarify a little bit more what drove the 61% decremental on the volume in SNPS. And more importantly, if we take a step back and we think about for the overall Company for the year that the $310 million of supply chain and COVID cost and the effect -- the commodity costs of $195 million. Can you talk about what the prospects are for recovering that if they did remain elevated? So, any thoughts on how to kind of frame that.
Joseph Massaro :
Sure. Why don't I start with the decremental Rod, it's Joe. I think those that applies to SPS and implies overall to app to write Q3. I think obviously a very challenging quarter from a decremental perspective. Really there's a couple of things driving that and I will start by, obviously this is very lumpy when you just look at a one-off quarter. I said there's two real drivers. We saw volume fall off significantly in the back half of Q3. Year-over-year, our view of vehicle production as will be flat to 2020, but the back half is going to be down by a little over 20%. So, there's a lot of volume coming out quickly. Obviously, there's only so much you can do with the cost structure, given such a short period of time that it's come down. But we have continued to incur the supply chain disruption costs. So, you've got not only revenue coming down quickly, but you've got a fair amount of supply chain disruption costs that are hitting in the quarter and will hit in the back half of the year. So, the quarter had a sharp decremental. I think if you took a step back and looked at the full year, I think we're much more in line with our typical ranges of where we think incremental and decremental are, and what we've historically talked about. So that incremental of 18% to 22%, and decremental of 25% to 30% again, depending on how quickly volumes comes down. For the full year, I think the incremental are generally in line with that. We're obviously picking up an impact from the overall supply chain -related disruptions. But much more in line with where we historically expect the business. But it's -- I think in a given quarter, particularly when you see the sharp moves and volume, and this isn't different from what we saw actually during COVID last year. We are going to run heavier on those decremental. And again, it applies to -- it really applies to those segments.
Kevin Clark :
And Rod, this is Kevin. I'll take the second part of your question. I would break our activities to offset into 4 or 5 buckets. So, as we always do, we're constantly reassessing, reevaluating our cost structure and looking for opportunities both within supply chain, outside of supply chain to further reduce costs. We're in active negotiations with the supply base. Situations like this, I guess one of the side benefits is, becoming much more strategic with your customers as it relates to supply chain, as well as more strategic with your supply base, which translates into quite frankly, fewer supplier relationships, deeper supplier relationships, more strategic supplier relationships which provide you with the opportunity to further optimize the supply chain and reduce costs. I think in the past we've talked about over a 100 program or product redesign activities that we have underway. We we're substituting alternative inputs to platform solutions that will further lower those costs. And lastly, but equally important, we're having active discussions with all of our customers with respect to the cost of doing business in today's environment and the support we've provided to ensure that they remain connected from a supply standpoint. So those would be the 4 major buckets I would categorize things. Then I would say as it relates to cost and cost structure, and it's important consistent with past, we continue to have -- to invest in growth opportunities, technologies that support growth opportunities in areas like software, in areas like active safety, in areas like high-voltage electrification, and think it's important to continue to do so even in light of the decremental margins that you talked about to do production interruptions.
Rod Lache :
So maybe just to put a finer point on that, do you have a view on the extent to which this could be mitigated through those four actions? It's a pretty big number in aggregate, obviously.
Joseph Massaro :
Yeah, there is. We're working through that and as a part of our guidance for 2022, we'll talk about it. I think it's safe to say that you don't mitigate all of it in a 12-month timeframe, so there will be some amount of working through it. But as focused as we are on developing innovative solutions, we're, we have teams as, as focused on lowering overall costs.
Rod Lache :
Okay. And just second, the growth over market all year has been much stronger than you expected it was -- I think it was 16% in the first half now 18% this quarter. Have you been able to sort of assess the extent to which this is -- obviously a lot of it is secular with high-voltage and Active safety, but there's some component of that which is just driven by production mix and what OEMs have done to prioritize certain vehicles. Have you been able to parse that out just to get a sense of what the trajectory really underlying this has been?
Kevin Clark :
I think it's tough -- I -- well, I think that -- I think it's a great question, a fair question. I think it's tough to do. In reality, we've -- over the last few years, we've seen accelerated demand for AF solutions, for high-voltage electrification, and other items. I think it's a little bit -- it's difficult to be precise or to precisely answer that question. Like Joe in the past has spoken to the fact that OEM customers, it appears as though are producing an overall richer product mix. But to the extent that's driven from the current supply chain crisis versus some of it's the overall trend in adoption of Aptiv safety high-voltage electrification, it's less than precise calculus.
Rod Lache :
Thank you.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Joseph Spak from RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead.
Joseph Massaro :
Good morning, Joe.
Joseph Spak :
Thank you. Good morning. Joe, just -- thanks for all the updated color again on all the costs. I am just -- if I track this and I know you usually give it all on a year-over-year basis and sometimes a little bit sequentially, but is it -- it seems like if I back into just for the fourth quarter that COVID and [Indiscernible] supply chain [Indiscernible]. That's relatively flattish year-over-year. Is that fair and is that what is causing maybe a little bit of the better margin sequentially third quarter to fourth quarter?
Joseph Massaro :
We do start to lap at Joe, so we had 40 million of supply chain disruption costs in Q4 of last year. You are right, we are picking up a lap where for the first 3 quarters of this year it was -- at specific to supply chain disruption costs. For the first time we're really incurring anything at that level. And then just thinking out a little bit here with everything going on and lessons learned and as we sort of turned to the cash, like you mentioned, the higher inventory. Is that something that is going to be a little bit more structural for you? That everyone sort of in the value chain will sort of carry a little bit more inventory, provide a little bit more buffer and
Joseph Spak :
weighing on working capital a little bit. And then, on CapEx, I know that sort of came down or flex down and I think you normally talk about 5% of sales. So, should we expect like a catch-up next year for some of that might have been deferred or delayed or does it just return more towards that?
Kevin Clark :
I'll let Joe give a more precise answer. I think as you look at lessons learned, I'm not sure I'd characterize it as lessons learned as well as folks getting smarter overall about supply chain and a bigger push for greater visibility from customer to supplier, a better understanding or visibility to sub-suppliers in capacity, more committed volumes from the OEM down through the supply base so that capital is more effectively deployed, and then a trade-off of -- there will -- with that increased visibility, the reality is there will be areas where there will be more investment in inventory, but there'll be other areas where they'll be less. So how that offsets are probably a little difficult to estimate at this point in time, but near-term, it likely translates into more inventory. And I think the question is just how much in a [Indiscernible] that on certain parts or certain products, without committed volumes, JIT Inventory Management doesn't work for certain parts. Joe.
Joseph Massaro :
So, Joe, on capex, there was a small push into next year. [Indiscernible] -- I think that 5% as an overall range is still good. There's been years we've been a little under, there will be years where we're a little over by not more than half a base, a half percentage point. I still think 5 is a good proxy. There has been a little movement around just as we work through some of the disruptions in the volume comeback, [Indiscernible], but I wouldn't say that's a material change. On inventory, to Kevin's point, I think we're learning a lot. There is a fair amount if you just looked at sort of normalized our inventory, about half of the increase balance is, I would describe as really transactional. Production came down really fast in the back half of Q3. We were obviously given lead times. We were -- we had inventory on hand to produce to the original schedules. That half I would describe as more transactional. Volume came down. We have higher inventory levels. We tend to be -- we tend to use the same inventory if you think about what we make resins for connectors, the electric distribution business, the chips we'll use to the extent we have them. So, it's more of a timing related to the production slip outs for about half that balance. To Kevin's point on the remaining balance, There is inventory on hand because lead times have extended. We're focused on making sure we have stock in some cases, you're -- if you've got a product that has 350 parts and you're waiting for one chip, you tend to have the other 349 in stocks, so you're ready to go once you get that chip. So, there's -- there's that type. But certainly, the full investment that you see on the balance sheet, now, I would not think is representative of the investment that needs to be made, going forward. To Kevin's point, there probably will be some, but it's not going to be at that level. That was -- half of that was really the production disruptions.
Joseph Spak :
Thanks for the color.
Operator:
Thank you. We're now moving on to David Kelley from Jefferies, please go ahead.
David Kelley :
Hey, good morning, team. Thanks for taking my questions. Just 3Q outgrowth, another robust quarter here and realizing we aren't guiding to 2022, but you did reference in the slide decks and sustained growth over market opportunity. Can you talk about some of the drivers into next year, the content mix electrification, and how you're thinking about those relative to the steeper hurdle we're going to see into 2022?
Kevin Clark :
Yes, listen, I think as we've talked about, as Joe mentioned, we're not giving '22 guidance obviously, at this point in time. But the nature of our product portfolio in around safe, green, and connected, obviously there are macro trends that are driving significant demand for products in those 3 areas. Clearly, this year we've had a number of program launches that you should see the benefit of as we roll into 2022, but continue to be optimistic as it relates to outgrowth in the out years in line with what we've seen over our past. Joe?
Joseph Massaro :
The drivers, they're very consistent with what we've been seeing. It's high-voltage and active safety of clearly leaders. SPS continues to benefit more broadly from the content ads into vehicles. Even if it's not our active safety system or other technology, that business has content on 1 out of every 3.5 vehicles manufactured globally. So, there's a really positive content tailwind there. And then the commercial vehicle and industrial businesses continue to be accretive to growth. We're having a really good year from a commercial vehicle perspective and would expect the product lines in that space to continue to grow and be accretive to growth over market.
David Kelley :
Okay. Got it. Thank you. And then maybe a question on the semi costs. You noted specifically driver of the higher AS and UX input costs, can you give a bit more color on the semi-impact in the quarter, and I guess going into next year, do you see further semi price increases on the horizon, and just curious how you're thinking about the potential price increases versus some of the offsets that you referenced?
Joseph Massaro :
Yeah. Obviously still a lot of work in process as it relates to semiconductor pricing. It tends to be the price increases we're seeing now are really two-fold. We have seen some price increases on what I'll call the constrained chips. That I think will continue into next year. The other thing we're seeing at the moment, and I'd describe it as a bit of a sort of spot -by market. So even if they haven't institutionalized the price increases, just given the constraints, you are paying up for semiconductors. Again, that total number is about 195. It's a mix primarily semiconductor and resin. And as I made in my comments, we're obviously making progress on some of the offset initiatives that Kevin just talked about. But at this point, we're not -- [Indiscernible] are not ready to talk about how much of that we see rolling into 2022. Some of it will, and when the offset actions start to take effect.
David Kelley :
Got it. Thank you.
Operator:
We're now moving on to a question from Mark Delaney from Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.
Mark Delaney :
Yes. Good morning. And thanks very much for taking the question. Bookings have been running very nicely year-to-date. The last couple of years, the fourth quarter in particular, has been quite strong. Maybe you can talk about how you see bookings tracking in the fourth quarter of this year.
Joseph Massaro :
Bookings have been strong year-to-date; we're running at record levels. Having said that, the timing of customer awards can be very lumpy, so it's sometimes a bit difficult
Kevin Clark :
to predict. And it's incrementally difficult predicting in situations like we're in now where you're seeing supply chain disruptions. Several of the individuals from an OEM standpoint that are responsible for that activity are engaged to some extent in managing overall supply chain disruption. But I think with a fairly high level of confidence, we see bookings for the calendar year north of $20 billion, $21 billion, $22 billion so given what we see on the table today.
Mark Delaney :
That's helpful. Thank you. And then for my follow-up question was related to the supply chain disruptions, but more around how the industry may try to better deal with these longer-term and a number of the OEM's are talking about procuring semiconductors and other key components more directly and not just working with Tier 1 like Aptiv. I know those discussions are ongoing, but we've been at this for a while now. I'm curious if you have an update, you can share it around how you think Aptiv's role in supply chain and working with your OEM partners may evolve? Thank you.
Kevin Clark :
I -- that's a great question. I think, by and large, every participant in the supply chain is reevaluating their role and potentially what they can do differently. Having spoken now several times to the leaders of all the semiconductor companies, one of the critical items that needs to be addressed is committed volumes, right? When you look at an industry that is highly capital intensive, Predictability of production is extremely important and it gets compounded in an industry with long lead times that's currently constrained. So, however, we transition to more of a committed volume model, at least for the medium-term. Whether that's operating the way we historically operated with tiers being the primary face to the semiconductor players. Or it's OEMs working with the semiconductor players, as well as the tiers. Either can solve that problem. I think for us -- for Aptiv, we'll be flexible to operate in either scenario. I would say the one thing that will be different as we move forward is certainly more strategic relationships on the semiconductor side, which likely translates into deeper relationships, fewer semiconductor relationships that drive more volume in a more strategic relationship, both from a technology and a supply chain standpoint.
Operator:
Thank you. We're now moving on to Dan Levy from Credit Suisse with our next question. Please go ahead.
Dan Levy :
Hey, good morning everyone Thank you. Wanted to just see if -- and I recognize you've given us some directional comments on '22. I appreciate it. I wanted to see if maybe we could put a slightly finer point on the directional comments. 1. You could just remind us on just pure volume growth alone, stripping out the performance or other efficiencies or inefficiencies, what type of incremental margins you generally get, what you might expect in a year where there could be double-digit industry recovery? And then if commodity prices just stay flat versus where they are today, what's -- is there an early sense on what the net commodity impact is into 2022?
Joseph Massaro :
Yeah. Let me -- Dan, It's Joe. Let me start. I think the best way, obviously, I'm not going to give any more information on 2022 where -- as I said in my comments were really -- it's very early days to be doing that. But from our perspective and we've talked about this, certainly the COVID and the supply chain related disruption costs, we do not view as structural. We think those are very much driven by the events of the day. And as I said in my prepared comments, as supply chain and material flow return to the normal, would expect those costs to go -- to start to go away as well. If you look at 2021, I think it's a good proxy. We've historically talked about incremental margins on the OI line between 18% and 22%. This year, we'll be at 16% carrying $300 million plus of supply chain and COVID -related costs. So, if you backed out that $300 million, we'd be closer to 24%. So very much within the historical range and the expected range, when you adjust for the COVID and the supply chain related disruption costs. Now as we said even last quarter, we -- we're not treating the inflation as transitory, the 195, so I wouldn't -- I'm not going to add that back, but I really focus on -- we get back into that 18% to 22% range with we're just adjusting for those COVID costs. The other thing I've mentioned, we've got about $600 million again, we backed us out of the adjusted growth rate. But there's about $600 million of incremental volume from commodity and FX that has a negative flow on it, right? So, we've often talked about copper impacting margin rate, but it also obviously impacts the incremental rates. So again, just something to think about as you're working through the math. Right now, we see full-year material inflation of about a $195 million. A lot of that has come in the back half of the year. I think the back half run rate is probably at least indicative of what we're managing for 2022. Again, not going to speak to how much we're able to -- we're able to offset, but certainly start with that 195 we're talking about, that full-year numbers is certainly what we're working on at the moment.
Kevin Clark :
Dan, if I can just chime in just to underscore the point Joe makes but maybe at a higher level. You take a step back and in 2018, global vehicle production was close to a 100 million units and this year, global vehicle production will be under 80. And in 2018, revenues were $14.4 billion, this year we'll do $15.3 and when you look at our guidance as it relates to full-year EBITDA [Indiscernible] and EBITDA margins. And you factor in the cost headwinds that Joe's walk through for 2021, be it supply chain or COVID and you look at the transition from where we were in '18 and where we are today in light of all these effectively macro challenges with incremental investment in advanced technologies. It just underscores the strength of the business model we've built in the fact that, "hey, maybe quarters are short periods of time". We go through macro disruption, but the underlying robustness of the business model, the cash conversion is extremely strong, if not better than what it was historically.
Dan Levy :
Thank you and that's historical perspective certainly is helpful. Thank you. Second question, and I think it's a little -- a little more related, but it's specific to [Indiscernible] margin and I know there's a number of things that are moving up but it's been low, obviously, the volumes are quite weak and you have your Sunday cost inflation. I guess I'm wondering though just broadly on the go-forward. This is the segment where you have your software exposure. Theoretically, this is a segment where margin should sharply benefit as that software type revenue starts to come in on aid as you've obviously got app you'll get more. But you're talking about continued investment, it just feels like there could be more of a period of mid-single-digit or high single-digit type ASUX margins. And I guess I'm wondering, what are the things that need to happen for the margins to really break out in this segment? I know volume is a big one. But what else needs to happen?
Kevin Clark :
Yeah, listen. I think predictability of schedules is 1. 2. The execution on -- of the launch of the existing programs that we have that we're launching today is 2. The continued separation of software and hardware is three. And I guess the ongoing demand for the active safety, for the user experience, for the data and connectivity solutions that the segment provides. So, there's all sorts of tailwind there. Now having said that then, we've talked about some of the areas of opportunity in the future like SVA, like high performance compute areas, like software areas, where we feel like there's tremendous opportunity and if it makes sense, there are areas that we'll continue to invest in and some areas potentially increase investment in.
Dan Levy :
Got it. Thank you. Appreciate it. Very helpful.
Kevin Clark :
Thanks Dan.
Operator:
Thank you. From Bank of America, we have John Murphy with our next question. Please go ahead.
John Murphy :
Good morning, guys.
Kevin Clark :
Hey, John.
John Murphy :
Thanks for all the info and the shot at 20 -- what you've given us in '22, I know it's hard. Kevin, you mentioned one of the solutions to the issues that are going on right now is that automakers give more committed volumes and there's greater visibility through the supply chain. I'm just curious how you think that mechanically could work in an industry that is a slave to some degree to macroeconomic cycles, and you have [Indiscernible] volumes. It's just hard to understand how an automaker could sit there and give committed volume number because they are at the whim of what's happening in the macro, then also now finding out that they're at the whim of what could happen deep in the supply chain. I mean, how would you envision that committed volume from an automaker working?
Kevin Clark :
Listen, I think it's -- John, it's a great question and it's not easy. So, you're -- the point you make is a legitimate point, but it's an issue everyone across the supply chain, right, has to deal with from the OEM, all the way through to the wafer manufacturers. So, it affects every aspect of the supply chain. And if there isn't some level of baseline commitment and some level of products for some period of time. There's an amount of estimating that everybody in the supply chain is doing, and ultimately, you end up in a situation like we find ourselves in today. So, I think on -- I think again -- I think we're from a supply chain standpoint, will be more strategic with customers and then through to Tier 2, Tier 3, Tier 4 suppliers. The supply chain will be more integrated with more visibility. In exchange for that, they'll be more commitments at least on certain products for some agreed period of time. And that's the way the -- that's how we'll start to dig ourselves out of this for a more permanently address on some of the structural issues.
John Murphy :
Okay. Sure, hope we get there. And it seems like you guys are in a good -- in a good spot to actually help manage up and manage down in some ways.
Kevin Clark :
Yeah. We're working at it. I mean, under Joe's leadership, from a supply chain standpoint, I'd say we're working more closely. We've always worked closely with our customers and our suppliers. I think we're working more closely than we ever have. There are going to be areas where we're likely to carry incremental inventory, but there's likely areas where we'll actually have to carry less. And we're just -- we're all getting smarter about it. And unfortunately, we had the COVID -induced perfect storm that we're going through in 2021. But I think everyone's focused on how do we learn from it and how do we improve how we operate.
John Murphy :
And just a follow-up on vertical integration. I mean, we're hearing about this from these new EV manufacturers as well as the incumbents that are building up their own EV, essentially AV platforms. But ironically, there's a lot of stuff that they talk about that's very much sounds like set your satellite architecture or SVA, or other technologies that you bring to the table. So, when we hear -- when people hear vertical integration, they're like oh, crap, outsourcing is going to reverse and there's going to be in-sourcing, but it doesn't -- it seems like it's a question of semantics because it really sounds like a lot of your technology is leading in some of these platforms. So how should we generally think about it? Because it really seems like there is a semantics issue here about what vertical -- clinical vertical integration really is.
Kevin Clark :
Yeah -- no. Listen, you got a great point, and we do business with a number of the players that you'd refer to as new battery electric vehicle companies. And I think in reality, across all of them, there's very little in the areas of what they produce, that kind of vertical integrations religion. Vertical integration tends to be an economic trade-off. To your point, we feel like we're well-positioned with both software and hardware capabilities. We have architecture capabilities. I think we would tell you based on our discussion with all those players, the reality is there are certain areas that are growing rapidly in the car from a content standpoint, like software. And I think both in the software area and in the hardware area, OEM's whether the new OEM's or legacy OEM's, in reality are going to be dealing with fewer suppliers and a couple of the newer, the battery electric vehicle companies that we have relationships with, what they'll actually say, is more of the activity is actually outsourced from our standpoint today, but they are actually dealing with -- doing that with fewer suppliers. And that's, in our view, likely the trend that takes place and that's where we're working really hard to make sure that we're in front of that trend and we're able to benefit from it.
John Murphy :
Great, thank you very much.
Operator:
Thank you. Our last question today comes from Ittai Miceli from Citi. Please go ahead.
Ittai Miceli :
Great. Thanks. Good morning, everybody. Just two quick ones, a near-term question and a longer-term question. On the near-term question, maybe Joe, could you just give us the puts and takes on the implied Q4 revenue GOM? And then maybe a longer-term question for Kevin. We heard recently with -- at the GM Investor Day their plans to launch consumer AV with the help of crews in about 5 years. I'm curious what Aptiv strategy is with respect to consumer AV, as well as your relationship with emotional and the potential fee, but to perhaps leverage that relationship in the next 5 or 10 years for our consumer AV.
Joseph Massaro :
yes, Ittai, let me go really quickly on the growth over market. Listen, it's a bit of the same dynamic we've really been wrestling with for the last couple of quarters, right? There's just a lack of visibility of customer schedules. We obviously saw it's hard to be overly precise at this point from a forecast perspective. Having obviously seen anything that would suggest that it's a -- that there's going to be a meaningful change downward. We've introduced the 10 plus for the year. To the extent the production holds at these levels. And we continue to see strong mix. We're expecting another good growth over market quarters, shut target, call an exact number at this point, And Ittai with respect to your question about AV and [Indiscernible] I can't comment on others because AV is used differently by different OEMs or different suppliers. So, as you know, we have Motional, which is our joint venture with the Hyundai Motor group which is doing extremely well. Has driver-less vehicles being tested on roads today in Las Vegas, and elsewhere and we'll have fully driver-less vehicles and part of the Lyft network in 2023.
Kevin Clark :
So, from a business standpoint, they're doing -- in technology advance standpoint, on the team, there's doing extremely well. A couple of comments broadly on AV is you know; we've always viewed autonomous driving as the furthest spectrum of full ADAS solutions. And we use our partnership with Motional as an opportunity to continue to test, to validate, to future proof technologies that we can pull into our current ADAS solutions. And that's what we continue to do. We feel like at Aptiv, this is Aptiv, there's a lot of opportunity that remains in the L0 to L3 sort of ADAS framework. 60% of -- less than 60% of vehicles today have an AF solution on them. If you believe IHS, they forecast that increases to 70% by 2025, we actually believe it will be more than that. And the fastest growing area will be on L2 and L2 plus. So, I would tell you that's our biggest focus area. Having said that -- and we're using motional as a resource to enhance the solutions that we use in the L2, L2 plus sort of space. And then concurrently we're working with Motional as well as have internal resources focused on L3 and beyond. Our view is that's -- that that's from a cost or commercial standpoint, that's likely beyond 2025, but it's certainly technology that we're focused on. And then it's a capability we want to make sure that we're positioned to have.
Ittai Miceli :
That's all. That's very helpful. Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. That concludes today's Q&A session. I'd now like to hand the call back over to you, Mr. Clark, for any additional or closing remarks.
Kevin Clark :
Great. Thank you, Operator. Thank you, everyone for joining us this morning. Take care and have a great rest of the day.
Joseph Massaro :
Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. That concludes today's call. Thank you for your participation, ladies and gentlemen. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Good day and welcome to the Aptiv Second Quarter 2021 Earnings Conference Call. Today's conference is being recorded. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Elena Rosman, Aptiv's Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, ma'am.
Elena Rosman:
Thank you, Anna. Good morning and thank you for joining Aptiv's second quarter 2021 earnings conference call. The press release and related table, along with the slide presentation, can be found on the Investor Relations portion of our website at ir.aptiv.com. Today's review of our financials excludes restructuring and other special items and will address the continuing operations of Aptiv. A reconciliation between GAAP and non-GAAP measures for both our Q2 financials as well our full-year 2021 outlook are included at the back of the slide presentation and the earnings press release. Turning to the next slide. During today's call, we will be providing certain forward-looking information, which reflects Aptiv's current view of future financial performance and may be materially different from our actual performance for reasons that we cite in our Form 10-K and other SEC filings, including uncertainties posed by the COVID-19 pandemic and the difficulty in predicting its future course and impact on the supply chain and global economy. Joining us today will be Kevin Clark, Aptiv's President and CEO, and Joe Massaro, CFO and Senior Vice President of Business Operations. Kevin will provide a strategic update on the business, and Joe will cover the financials results and the updated outlook in more detail before we open the call to Q&A. With that, I would like to turn the call over to Kevin Clark.
Kevin Clark:
Thanks, Elena. And thank you everyone for joining us this morning. Beginning with slide 3. Aptiv's first half performance, which includes record growth over market and record new business awards, validates the strength of our portfolio of market relevant technologies and our success keeping our customers running in a challenging environment. Revenues in the second quarter were $3.8 billion, an increase of 85%, lapping prior year shutdowns in North America and Europe, and representing 17 points of growth over underlying vehicle production. Operating income and earnings per share in the second quarter totaled $301 million and $0.60, respectively, meaningfully impacted by ongoing COVID-related expenses, as well as the increased supply chain disruption and input costs resulting from material shortages. Despite these headwinds, which we expect to somewhat ease during the balance of the year, we're raising our outlook for the full year, driven by continued strong customer demand for our solutions, continuing our track record of outperformance and value creation for all stakeholders. Turning to slide 4, our updated 2021 outlook also reflects our flexible and sustainable business model, which positions us to support the record number of customer program launches that are driving incremental volume and market share gains this year, while mitigating the supply chain headwinds. As I mentioned, we expect the supply chain tightness to begin easing over the next few months. And we're happy with consumer demand levels, and our customers intend to make up as much of the first half production shortfalls as possible, which is a reason we've made no change to our outlook for growth in global vehicle production, which we still expect to be roughly 10% for the full year. At the same time, the demand for our portfolio of advanced technologies is benefiting from the acceleration of the safe, green and connected mega trends, which has led to an increase in our outlook for revenue growth and growth over market from 6% to approximately 10% for the year. Our team is diligently working to efficiently launch high complexity programs in the Advanced Safety and User Experience segment, while we also deliver on the launch of a record number of high voltage electrification programs in our Signal and Power Solutions segment. That said, it will continue to be more expensive to operate in the current environment as customers cancel production shifts and idle plants in response to supply chain constraints, creating temporary labor inefficiencies in our operations, and input cost increase as a result of material shortages, both of which have been factored into our updated full-year outlook. Our sourcing and commercial teams are actively pursuing recovery actions with suppliers and with customers. And our engineering teams are developing and validating product redesigns, providing access to incremental sources of supply and helping to offset the impact of increased input costs. Setting the near-term challenges aside, we're performing very well and continue to proactively position the Aptiv for the future by investing in high growth, high margin technologies that further enhance the resiliency of our business and by leveraging our unique brain and nervous system capabilities to deliver more content on the electrified software defined vehicles of the future, which taken together yield accretive growth opportunities on the path to the software-defined vehicle enabled to smart vehicle architecture or SCA, as evidenced by recent bookings and the size and quality of our new business pursuit pipeline. As shown on slide 5, second quarter new business bookings reached $6 billion, bringing the year-to-date total to a record $11.2 billion. Our unique portfolio of advanced technologies, combined with our flawless operating execution, has positioned us as a partner of choice for our customers, by enabling the transition to new architectures and software defined features with our optimized solutions that enhance systems performance, while also lowering the vehicle's total cost. Our brain and nervous system capabilities and holistic platform approach sets us apart. While global scale and execution capabilities have allowed us to increase our share of wallet with both traditional and emerging OEM customers and strengthen our overall competitive position, which we'll hear more about in our upcoming segment discussions. Turning to the highlights from our Advanced Safety and User Experience segment on slide 6. Second quarter revenues increased at 83%, 15 points over market, reflecting the benefit of new program launches and content gains, which translated into strong growth over market in our Aptiv safety product line and continued growth in our user experience and connectivity and security product lines despite the supply chain constraints impacting the segment. Consumers are demanding more safety and connectivity features in their vehicles, which are increasingly delivered through software, enabled by more advanced sensing and compute platforms. This presents us with additional opportunities to increase our customer share of wallet. The evolution of feature rich, more automated vehicles is playing out just as we planned. We anticipated our customers' needs and took the actions necessary to position Aptiv as a strong collaboration partner. As a result, we're experiencing firsthand the commercial validation of SVA, with nine advanced development programs underway or recently completed, which we're confident will lead to new customer awards during the next year. And a new business award during the second quarter from Great Wall Motors for the development of a central vehicle controller. This is a new high performance compute platform that will first launch with Great Walls' WEY brand in 2023, which up-integrates critical body functions and controls the flow of data in and out of the vehicle, making it a first to market solution globally and also representing a key SVA commercial milestone. Moving to slide 7. We're at a pivotal point in our industry's transition as consumers want more advanced features for safety, comfort and convenience. More stringent regulations regarding CO2 emissions and lower battery costs are accelerating the industry's move to high voltage electrification, and 5G technology and the cloud are creating opportunities to deliver vehicles that leverage connectivity even more than they do today, all of which is being enabled through a significant increase in the amount of software going into the vehicle, providing us with increased software content and new business model opportunities. To put the opportunity into context, the total automotive software market, which includes integration, feature development and validation and verification services, totals an estimated $30 billion today, and is expected to grow to roughly $80 billion by 2030. This represents a significant opportunity for Aptiv. We're confident that we have a right to play across the full software stack, with over 5,000 software engineers who successfully deployed advanced software solution across literally millions of vehicles with multiple OEM customers across the globe, including our advanced ADAS systems currently launching on the Jeep Grand Cherokee and Wagoneer, which includes radar, camera, perception and feature software, enabling 360 degrees sensing and scale layout functionality through L2+. And with the addition of in-cabin sensing technology, we will also include enhanced reactive driving assist. We're also helping to enable L2+ ADAS system capabilities for Ford, as well as other OEMs with our scalable ADAS platform, which includes modular software building blocks and industry-leading perception systems. And lastly, Volvo's Polestar 2 was first to market with native Android automotive running Google automotive services. Aptiv's Android based software and hardware platform powers this best-in-class infotainment system and enables real time over-the-air updates. These examples underscore Aptiv's software and systems capabilities, as well as our role as a partner of choice delivering more advanced, higher value, margin accretive solutions to our customers. Turning to slide 8. Our Signal and Power Solutions segment is the industry leader in high speed, high fidelity data transmission, multi voltage electrical distribution, and automotive grade cable management and connection systems. Revenues increased 86% during the quarter, 18 points over market, driven by OEMs prioritizing the production of more highly contented vehicles, as well as the increased production of high voltage electrified vehicles, resulting in increased demand for both our low voltage and high voltage architecture solutions and continued very strong demand for engineered components for applications in the automotive, commercial vehicle and industrial markets. We're well positioned to support our customers globally, with a comprehensive portfolio of vehicle architecture solutions that leverage a high degree of vertical integration, which is translated into a significant increase in new business awards for high voltage electrified platforms, where we've been able to design and deliver fully optimized vehicle architecture that provides up to a 40% reduction in weight and mass, significantly lowering the total system cost of an electrified vehicle platform, positioning us to have content on more than 50% of the battery electric vehicles launching over the next few years. In addition, several OEMs have asked us to help to find their next generation electrified vehicle architecture with advanced development programs, including a multi voltage predevelopment partnership with a major German OEM on their premium electrified vehicle platform and development of the next generation electrical architecture for a future battery electric vehicle platform with a major high volume global OEM. These customer awards validate our leadership position, optimizing power and data distribution for new vehicle architectures that deliver significant value for our customers. Turning to slide 9. In June, we hosted our virtual electrification teach-in, which showcased our industry-leading high and low voltage technology portfolio, the accelerated outlook for the EV market and how those translate into sustainable and profitable growth for Aptiv. The recent increased demand for electric vehicles has been encouraging, but it's nothing compared to what's on the horizon. As governments around the world fuel a green recovery, never has Aptiv's value proposition has more meaning than it does today. The European Union recently proposed regulations calling for zero CO2 emissions from vehicles by 2035. And the US administration has recommended targets for significantly higher EV penetration, both of which are driving an increase in commercial activity. Every major global customer has announced an increase in pull forward of investment in the development of new electric vehicle platforms. And combined, OEMs are now targeting to launch over 400 vehicle programs between now and 2025, which is translated into a tenfold increase in business pursuit activities over the last few years. We've been quick to support our customers globally with high voltage new business awards totaling $1.4 billion year-to-date and a clear line of sight to future awards. We now expect high voltage bookings to exceed $2.5 billion for the year. That's an increase of 25% over our prior record of $2 billion. And we expect our high voltage revenues to increase from just under $1 billion in 2021 to over $2.5 billion in 2025, making high voltage electrification our fastest growing product segment. Our success has been driven by our end-to-end full system level capabilities, which enable a more efficient path to vehicle electrification. Our portfolio of advanced technologies enabled faster charging, improve reliability, performance and packaging, as well as increased safety and security. While optimization of the vehicle architecture design leads to reduced complexity, enables more flexible and scalable implementation, as I mentioned, results in significant weight and cost savings on the path to full SVA, all which is developed and delivered to our customers flawlessly through our global scale and manufacturing excellence. Our industry-leading position in high voltage electrification solutions positions us to pursue additional opportunities and deliver incremental value to customers for a much broader system level design and software solution. Moving to slide 10, we're proud of the progress we've made on our enterprise-wide commitment to corporate social responsibility, which can be further explored in our 2021 sustainability report that was published in July. This year's report includes our sustainability strategy and 2025 commitments for each of our foundational pillars, which include people, product, planet and platform and enhanced disclosures, specifically around our approach to diversity, inclusion and human capital development, our path to carbon neutrality by 2040, our Lean 2.0 initiatives, focus on product quality and execution, and the governance and operating processes around our sustainability objectives. Our report also highlights the tremendous contributions made by our team during the pandemic, and how each of us live the Aptiv values, thinking and acting like owners, and always doing the right thing the right way. To our team's resiliency and dedication, we've continued to deliver on our mission, creating products that help transform society by saving lives, reducing carbon emissions, and connecting people in new ways. We believe that our long-term success and ability to create value for our stakeholders are directly linked to building more sustainable business that continuously delivers on this mission and our strategy. As a result, we're proud to be an early adopter, linking our sustainability commitments with our bottom line and our recently amended credit facility which Joe is going to cover in more detail shortly. And we fully understand that reaching our goals will take a comprehensive strategy, intense coordination and operating execution by all of our team members over a sustained at a time. So, with that, I'll hand the call over to Joe to take us through the financials in more detail.
Joseph Massaro:
Thanks, Kevin. Good morning, everyone. Starting with slide 11, the recovery momentum in the second quarter generated strong results despite the challenging environment Kevin referenced. Revenues of $3.8 billion were up 85%, 17% ahead of vehicle production, with strong market outgrowth in every region. Adjusted EBITDA and operating income were $498 million and $301 million, respectively, reflecting headwinds of $55 million of COVID safety and supply chain disruption costs and $80 million from FX, commodities and other input costs. Earnings per share in the quarter were $0.60 and operating cash flow was strong at $297 million, driven by higher earnings despite increased inventory levels to support customer schedules. Looking at second quarter revenues in more detail on slide 12. Broad demand recovery contributed to strong growth over market across regions. Favorable volumes and the impact of FX and commodities were partially offset by normal price downs in the quarter. From a regional perspective, North America revenues were up 154%, representing 24 points of growth over market driven by the ramp in active safety launch volumes and favorable truck and SUV platform mix. In Europe, strong double-digit outgrowth of 37% was driven by robust customer launch activity and higher volumes in our high voltage electrification and industrial product lines. Lastly, in China, revenues grew by 2% or 9 points over market, lapping last year's strong market recovery with outgrowth driven by the engineering components product line. Moving to the segments on the next slide. Advanced Safety and User Experience revenues increased 83% in the quarter, reflecting 15 points of growth over underlying vehicle production despite the semiconductor supply constraints. Segment EBITDA increased by $113 million, driven by higher sales volume, partially offset by supply chain disruption and higher input costs. Signal and Power Solutions revenue were up 86%. Record growth was driven by broad based recovery across the auto, commercial vehicle and industrial end markets and the ramping of high voltage vehicle production. EBITDA in this segment increased by $443 million in the quarter on higher sales volume, partially offset by FX and commodities, primarily copper, and additional costs and inefficiencies from the supply chain constraints and resulting disruptions to customer production schedules. Turning now to slide 14 and our 2021 macro outlook. We continue to plan for global vehicle production to be up 10% for the year. As expected, the semiconductor constraints were more impactful in the second quarter due to the impact of the Naka fire and spring weather events. While ongoing challenges with semiconductor supply will continue to impact vehicle production, we believe we have adequately reflected these dynamics in our outlook for the second half, which estimates vehicle production is down 4%, lapping last year's second half production snapback, which creates difficult comps in all regions. Accordingly, we expect second half production in North America to be flat, while Europe and China are expected to be down 5% and 10% respectively. In summary, while the supply chain remains tight, we are working closely with customers and suppliers to optimize deliveries to meet customers' demand. Given continued variability in customer production schedules, we are not in a position to provide third quarter financial guidance. However, we are confident in our updated 2021 outlook reflected on slide 15. We now expect revenue in the range of $16.1 billion to $16.4 billion, up 20% with 10 points of growth over market at the midpoint, 4 points higher than our prior guide, demonstrating the relevance and diversity of our portfolio and product lines. EBITDA and operating income are now expected to be $2.42 billion and $1.63 billion at the midpoint, with strong year-over-year sales conversion despite COVID and supply chain disruption costs, which are now estimated to be $250 million for the year, up $110 million over the last year and FX commodity and other rising input costs. Lastly, we expect earnings per share of $3.75 at the midpoint and operating cash flow of $1.8 billion. Turning to slide 16. We thought it would be helpful to provide more detail on the full year guidance update compared to the initial guidance we provided back in February. Starting with the revenue walk on the left, our updated outlook reflects an increase of $455 million from growth above vehicle production, as well as a $385 million tailwind from FX and commodities. EBITDA guidance is increased, driven by the $215 million benefit of higher growth and performance. However, the increase is offset by higher costs, approximately $70 million associated with managing through the supply chain disruptions and volatile customer production schedules. In addition, we're experiencing higher FX and commodity pricing, mainly copper, as well as increases in certain input costs, including semiconductors and resins pricing, of $125 million versus our initial guidance. As it relates to these higher commodity price and input costs, we have already started taking actions to offset and mitigate these headwinds. We believe it is prudent to assume that these costs are not transitory and will persist into future periods. In addition to passing along higher prices where possible, including copper price escalations, we have a number of other initiatives, including supplier recovery strategies, engineering redesign and alternative source evaluations, as well as engaging in commercial discussions with our customers. Moving to slide 17. Sustainability is core to our business, from the products we make to the way in which we operate. We are proud to be one of the first companies to integrate our targets into a financing structure that underscores our commitment to cleaner air and safer work environments. In June, we entered into an amended and restated $2 billion revolving credit facility, utilizing our existing sustainability metrics and commitments. The amendment extends the maturity of the credit facility to 2026 and utilizes a pricing mechanism that lowers the borrowing rate, which we maintain throughout the term of the facility as long as we meet our previously published sustainability commitments, which include a decrease in Scope 1 and 2 carbon emissions by 25% by 2025 and maintaining an industry best lost workday case rate. The amended facility includes a debt-to-EBITDA leverage covenant of 3.5 times with up to $750 million cash netting and flexibility to increase the aggregate borrowing capacity and leverage in connection with any future M&A activity. Turning to slide 18. As we have discussed, our business model enables us to convert more income to cash, generating higher operating cash flow and free cash flow conversion. We expect operating cash flow of $1.8 billion in 2021, above 2019 levels, driven by higher earnings, partially offset by investments in inventory to support customers schedules. The decisive actions we've taken in the last few years to strengthen our capital structure has allowed us to maintain a strong balance sheet while continuing our disciplined capital deployment track record, which is evidenced by the $12.6 billion deployed from 2015 through 2020 focused on value enhancing investment opportunities. We continue to maintain a consistent approach aligned to our strategic framework that includes reinvesting in our growth businesses with high ROI CapEx investments, largely to support new customer wins and the expansion of key growth product lines, enhancing our auto tech capabilities in software, artificial intelligence, machine learning and systems engineering, as well as continuing to increase scale and diversification in our Signal and Power Solutions segment. A consistent execution of our strategy, even in the face of today's challenges, is a major differentiator for Aptiv and an important lever for shareholder value generation going forward. So with that, I'd like to hand the call back to Kevin for his closing remarks.
Kevin Clark :
Thanks, Joe. I'll now wrap up on slide 19 before opening it up for questions. As we reflect on the quarter and outlook for the year, it's clear that our relentless focus on innovation and flawless execution is allowing us to better support our customers and is resulting in stronger new business win rates, record bookings and faster revenue growth over market, further validating our industry leading portfolio of advanced technologies at the intersection of the safe, green and connected mega trends; strengthening the breadth and depth of our customer relationships, and thereby widening our competitive moat; and advancing our vision of the company in 2025 and beyond. This will result in an improved and more predictable growth profile, increased profitability, driven by the leverage of our global scale and the flawless execution of the accretive growth opportunities that are squarely on the path of the electrified software defined vehicle, which results in the compounding of earnings and cash flow generation, and provides additional opportunities for value creation through the discipline deployment of cash. We're well positioned to continue to outperform as a purpose-driven company with a roadmap to create significant value for our customers, employees and shareholders, leveraging our technology relevance, strong financial position, and the flexibility to constantly reinvent, reinvest in our people, in our processes and in our portfolio. So, with that, let's open up the line for questions.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions]. And our first question comes from Chris McNally of Evercore.
Chris McNally:
Look, I know there'll be a lot of questions around the margins and production in the current environment. I'll leave that to some of the other guys. I wanted to talk around SVA. The nine disclosure of the initial customers you're working with, that's a pretty big number compared to what you've always talked about. I think it was three to start. So, if you could just give a little bit more detail there. And at one point, when we sort of get revenue associated with SVA, just so we can sort of – everyone's so excited about it, but we have no idea how to size it even for 2025. And there will be some nomenclature because some goes into ASUE, some goes into SPS. But if you could just kind of frame because this is – it seems monumental that you're getting this much traction this quickly on SVA.
Kevin Clark:
We've seen, I would say, post-COVID, with the acceleration on battery electric vehicles and customer demand for an increased portfolio of battery electric vehicles, an acceleration of the work in and around SVA. I think the simple way to think about SVA, and we've always talked about it as a journey, right, starting with domain centralization, then moving to vehicle architecture simplification, and then, ultimately, to kind of encase SVA, which is post 2025. We break that down into three big product areas. And the first is zone controllers, and we've talked about the trend towards zone controllers, we've talked about our work in our actual commercial wins in and around zone controllers. The second is and around advanced development programs for PDCs. The third would relate to the CVC win with Great Wall Motors. And then the fourth is in and around the OSP. So, we feel like we've checked the box on three of the first four stages as it relates to SVA. The four stages, that OSP, we're in discussions with several OEMs regarding advanced development programs in that particular area. And what's really important is all of those ADP programs ultimately translate into real commercial opportunities. And to the extent you're working closely and strategically with your customer, you're doing advanced development programs, you're helping them frame design of the vehicle, design of the architecture, both hardware and software, it puts you in a really good position to effectively be awarded the follow-on business. So, a long winded way of – we've always described this as a journey. Sitting here today, we'd tell you is accelerated from where we thought it would be from a customer demand standpoint a little over a year ago. It's being driven by the trend towards battery electric vehicles and the opportunity to rethink vehicle architecture as you trend towards battery electric vehicles. And we're well positioned just given our history in domain controllers, given our history in vehicle architecture and our capabilities in and around zone controllers and our activities with OEMs. The ADP programs that we we've had in and around PDCs, the award from Great Wall Motors on the CDC, and the discussions we're now having with OEMs in and around the OSP. So, we have wins today, we have revenue today, if you were to think about the transition to SVA, but we think the real revenue opportunity is 2025 and beyond, as you see, multiple OEMs rethinking vehicle architecture and a much bigger push towards battery electric vehicles.
Chris McNally:
Kevin, just for the summary for a lot of us to understand those four levels, can you just remind us the functionality that a CVC gives you above and beyond as a [Technical Difficulty] controller, so we can understand just the big picture of why many OEMs are going in that direction?
Kevin Clark:
The real drive for the CVC is around two things, the ability to up-integrate a number of the body functions, right? So, you're able to eliminate ECU. So that's one. And then the second piece is the ability to connect from a data standpoint. So it's the point for most OEMs where data will flow from the car to the cloud, from the cloud to the car. So, it really serves those two functions, the up-integration aspect and the data and communication aspect. It's a big step. Overall, the way to think about it, it's a huge step in domain centralization, one, and the ability to have a software defined vehicle, two. Separate software from hardware.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Adam Jonas of Morgan Stanley.
Adam Jonas:
Rough number, I'm thinking that the legacy OEMs account for round number about 95% of auto sales global, even if I include – and if I include China in there and include their established, let's say, companies as legacy or [indiscernible] guys. I'm curious for your order backlog, whether that mix is materially different? Could you give us maybe a sense of what the non-legacy portion of your backlog is? If it's not 5%, is it more than that? Are you seeing that the front end of that moving materially higher? And then I have a follow-up.
Kevin Clark:
Adam, Joe will take you through specific numbers. If you break down our revenues, a couple of ways to cut it. One, total automotive revenues represent roughly 85% of our total revenues, with 15% being non-automotive, some of which is commercial vehicle, a growing component, which is industrial defense, aerospace, other. When you break down our current revenues and bookings, we've seen an acceleration of both bookings and revenue. And I characterize it in two areas. One, the newer battery electric vehicle manufacturers, some of which are more mature and have been around in North America, some that are a little less mature and are launching vehicles now in North America, and then a significant swing and probably a bigger mix change, quite frankly, in China with our new battery electric vehicle customers that tend to be more domestic. So, to put it in perspective, five years ago, 20% of our revenues and bookings in China were with local OEMs. Today, it's closer to 30%. A big piece of that is in and around some of the new battery electric vehicle companies.
Joseph Massaro:
Just a little bit more context. I don't have the exact number. I think at this point, if you think as sort of traditional OEs, it certainly depends on where you put Tesla, obviously, but in that 90% plus. It's obviously concentrated in the newer technology. So, if you think of sort of just a – to look at cumulative bookings over the past five years, there's $10 billion of the total, call it, around $100 million of cumulative bookings over that time period, about $9 billion of it's high voltage, close to $20 billion of that is in active safety. Obviously, just given the way the market is, a strong concentration of the legacy OE, but very much positioned in the newer tech that's going on to those vehicles in a meaningful way from a bookings perspective.
Adam Jonas:
Just one follow-up. I don't expect this is going to be impacting any of your quarters for a very long amount of time, but urban air mobility, EV [indiscernible] you're seeing a lot of development there from car companies and then aviation. It strikes me as if your brain and nervous system and electrical architecture of a car, vehicles has a very high transferability there. I'm just thinking, at a high level, could you tell us, are you devoting resource to this in the aviation electric aviation market at this point? Curious, your thoughts there. Even if it's 10, 20 years out, I don't care. I think it's in alignment with your products and what they can do. Would just love your view on that. Because some of the scenarios we're running, the number of things in the air could exceed the number of vehicles on Earth. So I just wanted to know your opinion on that.
Kevin Clark:
Adam, it's a potential opportunity. A reminder, our Motional joint venture partner HMG, obviously, is very focused and making meaningful investments in air mobility. The team at Motional is evaluating multiple markets in addition to the mobility on demand market. I think the general view is that that's a bit further out. So, in terms of meaningful investment, that hasn't been made at this point in time, but I think the team views it as real and an opportunity for potential future growth and is something that's under evaluation. From an Aptiv standpoint, we do have exposure, as I mentioned, to military aerospace, principally in our SPS segment. Alternative markets is an area that we're certainly pushing in that particular business, and that particular business segment, but I would say the overall exposure today is relatively small.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Brian Johnson of Barclays.
Brian Johnson:
I want to follow-up on Chris' comments on SVA, but really drill down into other parts of ASUX. So, if we go back to the 2013 Model S, not only was it electric, not only does it have domain controllers, also had advanced digital cockpit and, of course, later on Level 2+. We haven't heard a lot about your kind of advanced digital cockpit user experience side of ASUX. So, kind of a couple questions there. Given there's lots of competition at the low end, how are you thinking about that segment in general? Two, when you sit down with the legacy OEM CEO who wants to get into the modern world with EVs, does that conversation naturally go over to SVA digital cockpit and Level 2+ ADAS and are the synergies there? And then kind of three, related to the whole software overlay in the car, are there acquisitions you might be looking at similar to say what other multi industrials have done, to add a software footprint to their business?
Kevin Clark:
To bring it up, remember, we have a user experience business within our ASUX business that does, in round numbers, $1.7 billion revenues and is growing at a fairly healthy clip this year. Last year was affected by – we exited the display business. So, we had a headwind there. But it's growing very strong. Integrated cockpit controllers and that whole digital experiences is a huge aspect of what we're doing from an SVA standpoint. ICC gets up-integrated as a part of our SVA solution. The whole in-cabin sensing is a very important aspect as it relates to advanced ADAS solutions, Brian. So, in addition to the experience in the car, the user experience in the car, the in-cabin sensor is necessary to advance to L2+, to L3, becomes increasingly important. And I think as we speak today, I think we're about to launch over the next 12 months on three or four in-cabin sensing programs that are tied to effectively ADAS capabilities. And I think in my prepared remarks, I referenced one OEM that, as we are launching their ADAS solution now, the next phase of it is actually that fully integrated in-cabin sensing that allows them to further advance their driver assist capabilities. So, it's extremely important and it's a very important aspect as it relates to SVA. As it relates to software, we're trying to be really smart in terms of where we focus our resources and capital. I think Joe's mentioned in the past that acquisitions in and around the software space are additive to what we do today that help us to either productize software or give us capabilities to develop incremental features. Whether it's inside auto or outside auto is one of the areas that the team is very focused on. It's something that obviously we'd like to do, but it needs to make strategic business and financial sense, obviously.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Mark Delaney of Goldman Sachs.
Mark Delaney:
The first one is on the increased growth of our market assumption that the company articulated this morning, now looking for about 1,000 basis points compared to 600 basis points previously in your 1,600 basis points longer term target. When you think about that increase you're now expecting for this year, can you talk about whether or not you think that's going [indiscernible] sold through or was potentially some of this going into some of those vehicles that we're hearing OEMs have been partially building and perhaps this is going to be something you're going to have as a headwind for 2022?
Joseph Massaro:
At least, for us, the sort of what I'll call the lot hold inventory is not particularly large numbers. So, that's certainly not big enough to move growth over market on the back half of the year. I do think we're seeing very strong product mix, obviously, which is certainly helping growth over market in this year. As well as, as Kevin mentioned, just the high voltage and active safety growth. So, there's certainly elements of that that will carry into 2022. Not clear at this point. Obviously, don't want to get into next year. How much of that margin mix will carry in? So, there's a couple of moving pieces there. It is real. It's not some sort of lot hold that's driving up back half. And we obviously had a very strong first half of growth over market as well. So, I do think certainly we've been confident in that 6% to 8% for a long time. But just given the strength we're seeing again, with the addition of sort of this margin mix that's going on as OEs really decide how best to allocate effectively the semiconductors to platforms, it's obviously been a really good tailwind for us this year.
Kevin Clark:
If I can add two things to it, I think structurally, set aside semiconductor shortages, resin tightness, things like that, the reality is L2, L2+ category with an active safety is the fastest growing segment and was predicted to be pre the current supply chain situation. So, that obviously drives growth. Consumers want safety, they pay for safety. And Joe's point, in a market like today's market where our customers need to be – need to make decisions about vehicle platforms they're building, they're focused on fully contented vehicle platforms. So, I'm sure that's driving some benefit. But the underlying structural trend is towards more advanced ADAS systems, which an L2 system for us goes to an OEM for $1,000, $1,200. So it's a significant amount of revenue. The other piece, though, is high voltage electrification. High voltage electrification revenues will increase 60% this year. And we talked about, in our prepared remarks, going from under a billion dollars of revenues to $2.5 billion in revenues based on our current bookings trajectory. And if you follow what they're driving in Europe from a CO2 emission standpoint, the discussions out of the current administration here in the US in terms of what they'd like commitments from North American OEMs to deliver from a battery electric vehicle standpoint, there will be a significant pull and demand for high voltage electrification, which we're perfectly positioned to benefit from.
Mark Delaney:
My follow-up question was related to the supply chain. And Kevin, in your prepared comments, I believe you said you expect it to start to ease in the next couple of months. That's directionally consistent with what we're hearing from some of the other companies, although it's a little bit more specific. Some of the other companies have said the situation is still very fluid, especially with the rise in COVID cases, unfortunately, impacting Malaysia and a lot of the assembly and testers. So, maybe you can talk a little bit more about what you're seeing and what leads you to that comment of over the next few months you're expecting it to start to use…
Kevin Clark:
It's kind of a multi-layered question. So, when you separate or when you look at the current supply chain constraints, and if you want to say specific to semiconductors, but there are effects in other areas like resins, an example, it's multi-layered. One is just capacity versus demand. And in the semiconductor side and the resin side, we are seeing supply come in, into the market being provided to IDMs. And we're in daily contact with the semiconductor suppliers, the fab folks across the whole supply chain, from a semiconductor standpoint. So, that is improving. You have a situation where, earlier in the year, you had bad weather in southwest. You'll reference that, it impacted supply availability late Q1 and into Q2. You had the Naka fire in Japan in the first quarter that had implications for the second quarter. That situation is improving. Production is coming online. Not as fast as we'd like, but it's certainly improving. However, you're running into situations like today, where you have COVID challenges in Southeast Asia, most specifically today in Malaysia, that's interrupted production with some of the semiconductor suppliers. That is affecting availability of chips over the short term. That will impact schedules. We're watching Indonesia, we're watching Philippines, we're watching Singapore, Taiwan very closely. Those areas seem to be under control. But the supply chain is tight. In any sort of event, you see why COVID in Malaysia has an outsized impact relative to what typically would occur. So, we'd say, structurally, the situation is improving, but there's going to be periodic headwinds that we potentially run into due to things like COVID.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Dan Levy of Credit Suisse.
Dan Levy:
So, first, just want to clarify on the guidance. I think you called out in the quarter $55 million of COVID and supply chain disruption costs. Last quarter, you said it was combined $70 million. So that's 125 million year-to-date. And I see on slide 15 here, $110 million. So you're outpacing that amount. So, is that to say that you're expecting some recoveries or efficiencies into the back half? And then, I realize it's way too early to give any sort of definitive color on 2022, but as we're thinking about the supply chain into 2022, how does this influence the type of profile you'd get on incremental margins on any volume recovery?
Joseph Massaro:
It's obviously a very fluid situation, right? And to some extent, in this quarter, we're just sort of talking about the COVID and supply chain costs on a combined basis because, to some extent, they're starting to blur. If you're incurring a lot of premium freight getting parts out of the way, getting semiconductors out of Malaysia because a plant has been shut down with COVID, sort of which one do you want to call that? But we actually have seen – have in some cases where we talked about $100 million of COVID costs for the year running at $25 million a quarter. That's coming down a little bit, and it's just in some places, that's come down about $20 million for the back half of the year. Really there, we're still spending what we need to on the personal protection stuff. But some of the just inherent inefficiencies that came with – I'll say the first take on social distancing and spacing out the plants and some of the inefficiencies that's created, the team has found better ways to manage through that. So, some of those COVID costs have sort of eased a bit. We're obviously not going to speak to 2022. We have made the comments before, though. I would expect COVID costs certainly to continue into 2022. And as I said, we're now expecting about $80 million of that for the full year. I think that would continue. You're clearly seeing vaccinations matter. And it's a little hard to call vaccination rates in all of the places where we do business. So, I think out of an abundance of caution, we're certainly going to leave the employee protection costs and spend that money until we're really comfortable where we're not putting employees at risk. The supply chain disruption costs, those are directly tied to, in a lot of cases, premium freight, expedited manufacturing. There's obviously some inefficiencies now creeping into our plants as customers shut down for periods of time. And we're not necessarily causing the shutdowns, but we're obviously impacted by them. And that impacts – think about the indirect impact there. That impacts SPS as well because as customers shut down lines for three or four days, we're obviously shutting down that part of the business as well. So, I think those costs need to – you need to sort of align those with how long you think the supply chain disruptions are going to continue.
Kevin Clark:
I'd break it down because I think it's important. There's an element to the – since supply comes in more normalized into the market, you see a pretty rapid reduction in premium freight and labor inefficiencies, right? Joe talked about. We go through a really choppy production schedule now, given what OEMs are doing from a production standpoint and very near-term announcements, which really don't allow us to flex labor as efficiently. And we're launching a number of programs. And in certain cases, to be honest, we're keeping extra labor to make sure, as programs come back, we have trained hourly employees to actually launch those programs, firstly. The second piece we're doing from an input standpoint, which Joe talked about, is something that we need to work through over a longer period of time. We have a supply chain operating committee that really does two things. One, supply chain and commercial specialists who are focused on, one, day to day, how do we make sure that we keep customers connected with our suppliers, and then, two, longer term, what is it that we need to do strategically working with engineering. And we have a number of engineering initiatives underway. I'd say close to 100, where we're redesigning products, changing out input costs, or inputs to, one, provide additional incremental availability or capacity, but, two, to reduce overall expenses. Now, those tend to take a little bit longer to do. One, they're harder, they're more complex; two, they ultimately need to be validated by the customer. So, that's an area that we're very much focused on. So, although it's going to be a challenge to work through, it's something that we're certainly focused on reducing and ultimately eliminating.
Dan Levy:
Just to clarify, because I think you've changed some of the factors that you provided, because you are like – on COVID and supply chains, you're already running ahead of the $110 million that you guide. Is there something else that you're netting on that? Does that now include…
Joseph Massaro:
The $110 million is the increase year-over-year.
Elena Rosman:
We had some of those costs last year.
Joseph Massaro:
So, you have $250 million total spend for 2021. The $110 million is the change.
Elena Rosman:
The COVID costs last year were $100 million. And the supply chain inefficiencies are about $40,000 last year.
Dan Levy:
The second one, and this is, I guess, more so just to follow up to the electrification teach-in. I think what we've seen over the years, both in your time in Aptiv, but also back to Delphi days, is you're constantly – you seem to be making calls how to allocate resources between the different product areas. So, I think we know high voltage is probably going to be your highest growth product. That and SVA. At a group level, to what extent are you reallocating resources, whether it's sales staff or CapEx or engineering to high voltage and SVA away from other product areas? Or is the resource allocation more incremental?
Kevin Clark:
I would say the resource allocation is more incremental. Fortunately, we feel like we have a portfolio that's perfectly positioned across our two segments to pursue and win very profitable growth, whether that's active safety, whether it's user experience, whether that's high voltage electrification or engineered components. And in certain areas, obviously, we make decisions about where we allocate more or less. I'd say, as a business, we're at a point now, given the portfolio actions we've taken historically, where it's not pulling out of others, out of one product area and allocating to others. It's quite frankly incremental investment in areas where we see more growth. So, high voltage electrification is a great example. Last year, as we saw demand increase within our SPS business, reporting to our SPS leader, we created effectively a high voltage electrification product line that includes a combination of what we do in our EDS business, in our engineered components business, as well as in our HellermannTyton cable management business with a complete go-to-market. And we're aggressively looking for opportunities in and around power electronics, battery management systems, software, other areas that customers are asking us, if we can provide them a more additive full system solution. So, that's an area where we're adding resources in and around smart vehicle architecture, those that sit within ASUX, those that sit within EDS, we're both adding and reconfiguring how we operate, right, so that we have a more coordinated team that can develop products, whether they flow through ASUX and it's an ADAS solution that ultimately fits into – an ADAS platform that sits in our SVA solution. Or it's something in and around battery management systems that gets up-integrated into SVA. So, there are areas we're making incremental investments. There aren't areas other than the normal efficiency drives that we're taking investments away probably from. And a lot of what we're doing, Dan, quite frankly, is reconfiguring how we make sure two separate organizations are cooperating and working together to drive a product or build a product that goes across historical business lines.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Joseph Spak of RBC Capital Markets.
Joseph Spak:
Maybe if we could talk a little bit about copper. I know you want FX and commodities together for $80 million in the quarter. How much was the copper impact to OI? And what was the associated top line impact? Because I know, usually, there's a margin impact, but I don't think it impacts the dollars as much. So, it seems like there might have been a timing issue here. And I'm wondering how we sort of think about that as we move through the balance of the year.
Joseph Massaro:
It's not an issue. It's just the way the escalations work. So, the rate impact was, call it, sort of 60 basis points. We did have a dollar impact of copper, round numbers, $40 million in the quarter. And that's basically the timing of the way our escalations work, right? So, we have to buy copper, obviously. Our price adjustments to customers generally happens on a quarterly basis, some are monthly, a couple are semi-annually, but they average out to be mostly quarterly adjustments. So, we've reset those prices to what we were buying at in Q2, and will obviously have less of an impact going forward, assume there's some reasonable amount of stability in rates. We've had this in the past. You can have it going the other way, too. If you have a big move in price over a relatively short period of time, particularly just given the fact that our volumes have been going up, we've been buying a lot of copper, you get the timing between buying the copper and resetting prices with customers, but that happens automatically, it's contractually for about 80% of the spend. So, that's essentially been passed through or being passed through as we speak.
Joseph Spak:
Of the 150 [ph] input OI impact for the year, as that price pressure comes through, is it fair to assume that maybe resins and semis become a little bit more of an issue in the back half as copper starts to normalize?
Joseph Massaro:
I think that's the way to think about it. I think on the full year, we'd expect copper to be probably between $70 million and $80 million of that, with 75% of that impact in the first half of the year because we were going to be resetting prices. And you've got resin ticking in, semiconductor kicking in. There's some other input costs that are going up, but those are the two main ones in that category.
Joseph Spak:
Just quickly, I guess, on the growth of over market in S&PS, the guidance implies it sort of goes down to the low single digits in the back half. Can you just remind us what's really driving that step down from that high teens level in the first half?
Joseph Massaro:
Listen, there's a couple of things. I would say, generally speaking, it's sort of just the normal – and I say normal, sort of pre-COVID, the sort of existing business, just the lapping of launch cycles. And we obviously had some strong launch and snapback activity in the back half of last year, particularly in China. And you see some of that ebbing. That's a bit of more of a year-over-year. I'll tell you, the first – and this was primarily isolated in the first quarter. There were a few points of growth, and we talked about it at the time, just related to what I'll call sort of the channel replenishment in the engineered components business. Obviously, creating a favorable mix, we talked about it being worth about 4 points of the outgrowth in Q1. That was really isolated to Q1. We didn't see much of that at all in Q2, and don't expect it in the back half. So, that's another sort of just a first half/second half delta.
Elena Rosman:
And just to clarify, the second half outlook, the implied outlook implies a roughly 7 points of growth over market in the second half.
Operator:
Thank you. This concludes today's question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the call back to Kevin Clark for any addition or closing remarks. Great. Thank you very much. Thank you, everyone, for joining us today. We appreciate your participating in our call. Have a great rest of the day. Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Good day and welcome to the Aptiv First Quarter 2021 Earnings Conference Call. My name is Anna, and I will be your conference operator today. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speakers' remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session. Thank you. Elena Rosman, Aptiv's Vice President of Investor Relations, you may begin your conference.
Elena Rosman:
Thank you, Anna. Good morning and thank you to everyone for joining Aptiv's first quarter 2021 earnings conference call. The press release and related table along with this live presentation can be found on the investor relations portion of our website at ir.aptiv.com. Today's review of our financials excludes restructuring and other special items and will address the continuing operations of Aptiv. The reconciliation between GAAP and non-GAAP measures for both our Q1 financials as well our full-year 2021 outlook are included at the back of today's presentation and the earnings press release. During today’s call we will be providing certain forward-looking statements, which reflect Aptiv's current view of future financial performance and maybe materially different from our actual performance for reasons that we cite in our Form 10-K and other SEC filings, including uncertainties posed by the COVID-19 pandemic and the difficulty in predicting its future course and impact on the global economy. Joining us today will be Kevin Clark, Aptiv's President and CEO, and Joe Massaro, CFO and Senior Vice President of Business Operations. Kevin will provide a strategic update on the business, and then Joe will cover the financials results in more detail before we open the call to Q&A. With that, I would like to turn the call over to Kevin Clark.
Kevin Clark:
Thank you Elena and thank you everyone for joining us this morning. Beginning with slide 3, we had a strong start to the year reflecting our ability to outperform in a challenging environment. Our focus on execution translated into stronger revenues and earnings in the quarter. Revenues totaled $4 billion that's up 20% from the prior year, driven by our industry leading portfolio safe green and connected technologies. Operating income reached $437 million, reflecting margins of 10.9% an increase the 370 basis points from the prior year, and earnings per share totaled $1.06 an increase of 56%. The results of strong revenue growth, partially offset by labor inefficiencies, and increased premium freight costs associated with a growing number of supply chain disruptions. The 5% growth in global vehicle production was principally driven by a 72% increase in China, lapping the impact of last year's pandemic related shutdowns partially offset by a decline in vehicle production of 4% in North America, and 1% in Europe as OEM customers idle plants in response to the tightening of the global supply chain. For the balance of the year, we expect the supply chain to remain stressed in the near term volatility and production schedules to actually increase. However, the Aptiv team is doing an excellent job executing in this very fluid environment, minimizing the effects of the supply chain disruptions, and keeping our employees safe while delivering for our OEM customers. Turning to slide 4, this year supply chain disruptions have been further exacerbated by severe weather in the South-western United States, and a facility fire at one of the industry's major chip suppliers in Japan. As a result, we continue to experience volatility and production schedules, elevated freight and logistics expenses and higher raw material input prices, as the industry struggles to meet strong customer demand levels. As I mentioned, based on our daily discussions with customers and suppliers, we expect supply chain disruptions to actually increase over the next few months before the environment begins to improve in the second half of the year. However, given the puts and takes, we continue to expect global vehicle production to increase 10% for the full year, reflecting continued strong consumer demand, the absence of last year's pandemic related production shutdowns and customer intentions to make up first half production shortfalls in the second half of the year. Moving to slide 5. Despite the near term economic uncertainty, we continue to remain confident in our initial financial outlook for the year. Our industry leading cost structure provides the incremental flexibility to rapidly adjust to changes in customer production schedules, and our portfolio of advanced technologies position us to benefit from the acceleration and safe green and connected secular trends, which has led to increase your wallet with both leading and emerging electric vehicle manufacturers ramping up production globally, including the leading U.S. EV company, Volkswagen, Volvo, Rivian in Neo. Our scalable satellite architecture ADAS platform is now being deployed across multiple OEMs and vehicle segments across the globe. And our connected services solutions are providing fleet owners with the information necessary to optimize vehicle uptime and lower operating costs, as well as OEM customers with the vehicle level data to reduce product development and warranty expenses. We're very proud of the positive impact these technologies are having today. And I want to recognize the tremendous dedication of the global Aptiv team, which has launched these complex and highly integrated solutions during these very challenging times. In summary, our flexible and sustainable business model is reinforced by a consistent and deliberate management approach to discipline revenue growth and industry leading cost structure and sustained through cycle resiliency, allowing us to compound earnings and cash flow and reinvest that cash to create long term shareholder value. Moving to slide 6, first quarter bookings totaled $5.2 billion, reflecting a strong funnel of new business opportunities and robust customer win rates. Our advanced safety and user experience segment booked approximately 1 billion, reflecting the lumpiness of New Business Awards, further exacerbated by the semiconductor supply shortage, which is extended customer decision timelines as resources have been reallocated. As a result, a number of larger business pursuits are now slated for award in the second half of the year. New Business bookings for our Signal and Power Solutions segment totaled 4.7 billion, including nearly 1 billion of high voltage electrification awards, driven by the increased demand for electrified vehicle platforms. Our strong track record of new business bookings is proof that our portfolio of advanced technologies is well aligned to the areas of growth within our industry, and our position as the only provider of both the brain and the nervous system of the vehicle enables us to provide unique value to our customers. Moving to slide 7, we believe that our long term success in ability create value for our stakeholders are directly linked to building a more sustainable business that continuously delivers on our mission and strategy. Our mission to develop safer, greener and more connected solutions, which enable the future of mobility is integral to both the products we create and the way we conduct business. Aptiv is committed to protecting human health, natural resources and the environment in which we live and operate. Our commitment to environmental stewardship is companywide. And we aggressively pursue initiatives to minimize our environmental impact. In 2012, we sent a long term target reduce our carbon output by 30%, between 2011 and 2019, which we actually exceeded reducing emissions by over 40% during that period. In our 2020 sustainability report, we published new, more aggressive sustainability targets that include a further 25% reduction of CO2 emissions by 2025. In addition, we committed to the science based targets initiative, joining the effort to create a zero carbon economy to help prevent the effects of climate change. And as a result, we're excited to announce Aptiv’s path to carbon neutrality, which includes being carbon neutral across our global operations by 2030 and providing carbon neutral products to our customers, and achieving net neutrality by 2040. We remain committed to addressing some of mobilities toughest challenges, while at the same time reducing CO2 emissions globally. We plan to showcase our industry leading electrification portfolio and capabilities and our upcoming high voltage technology teaching, which is scheduled for early June. Turning to slide 8, despite the challenges we currently face, we remain focused on further strengthening our track record of outperformance and long term value creation. While our industry continues to be tested, our operating performance has validated our business model and through cycle resiliency. As we look ahead, we position Aptiv to continue to outperform with focus investments that have increased the resiliency of our business, and expanded the markets we serve, leveraging our unique brain and nervous system capabilities to deliver even more content on the electrified Software Defined vehicles of the future, which together yield accretive growth opportunities and present incremental value creation opportunities through smart capital deployment, resulting in meaningful shareholder returns as the economic recovery continues to unfold. So with that, I'll hand the call over to Joe to take us through the first quarter results in more detail.
Joseph Massaro:
Thanks, Kevin. And good morning, everyone. Starting with slide 9, the recovering momentum in the first quarter generating strong sales, income and cash performance despite the supply chain constraints Kevin referenced earlier. Revenues of $4 billion were up 20% 15% ahead of vehicle reduction which was up 5% on our weighted market basis. Adjusted EBITDA and operating income were $630 million and $437 million respectively, reflecting stronger volumes and discipline cost management, partially offset by approximately $70 million of COVID and supply chain related costs. Earnings per share in the quarter were $1.06, reflecting higher operating income, offset by the Motional JV results and higher share count and tax expense. Operating cash flow is strong at $252 million driven by higher EBITDA while CapEx was $134 million. Looking at first quarter revenue in more detail on slide 10, broad demand recovery in some inventory, restocking and our engineered components businesses contributed to strong growth over market and every region. We also had favorable FX in commodities partially offset by price down to approximately 1% a quarter. From a regional perspective, North America revenues were up 5% representing nine points of growth over market driven by new launch volume, and favorable truck and SUV platform mix. In Europe, the trend of strong double digit market outgrowth continued with further adoption of our high voltage electrification and active safety solutions. Lastly, in China, revenues grew by 94%, reflecting 22 points of growth over market, as the volume recovery led to production upside and inventory replenishment with our major customers. As a reminder, China operations were shut down between late January and March of last year. Moving to the segments on the next slide. Advanced Safety & User Experience revenues increased 11% in the quarter, reflecting six points of growth over underlying vehicle production, including double digit active safety outgrowth, despite semiconductor supply shortages. Segment EBITDA increased 31% excluding the impact of Motional JV deconsolidation, driven by higher sales and disciplined cost management, partially offset by supply chain disruption costs. Signal and Power Solutions revenues were up 23% reflecting 18 points of market outgrowth. Record out growth was driven by continued strong demand for high voltage electrification solutions in Europe and China, favorable truck and SUV platform mix in North America and the benefits of inventory replenishment within the engineering components businesses. EBITDA in the segment increased 43% on strong sales conversion, driving meaningful margin expansion despite headwinds from supply chain costs, and FX and commodities in the quarter. Both segments are lower price downs in the quarter due to customer timing, which is expected to return to normalized levels over the course of the year. Turning now to slide 12, and our 2021 macro outlook. As Kevin mentioned earlier, the worldwide shortage of semiconductors impacting the auto industry continues to limit near term production visibility. Based on discussions with our customers and suppliers we expect supply chain disruptions to remain volatile in the second quarter, given the additional impact of the Naka Fire and the Texas weather events. And while we don't expect the supply demand imbalance to fully recover to normalize levels until 2022 the situation is expected to improve in the second half of the year to allow for partial recovery of loss vehicle production from the first half. Accordingly, we will not be providing guidance for the second quarter as it remains a high likelihood of vehicle production shifting between the quarters. However, we continue to believe we have adequately reflected the current situation on our original guidance for fiscal year 2021, which estimates global vehicle production of 84 million units up, 10% with minor adjustments within the regions. Our assumption for North Americans increased slightly offset by a reduction in Europe as markets continue to face extended lockdown measures. While the supply chain remains extremely tight, we have taken swift action to mitigate these impacts to help customers prioritize certain platforms to meet increased levels of demand, which was reflected in the strong outgrowth we saw in the first quarter. Although we are not updating our full year guidance, we remain confident our industry leading portfolio of safe green and connected technologies will continue to yield market growth in the range of 6% to 8% consistent with the framework we've previously provided. Turning to slide 13. Despite the uncertainty that remains near term, we are confident in the original guidance range we provide for 2021. For the year we continue to expect revenues to be in the range of $15.1 to $15.7 billion up 16% with six points of growth over market at the midpoint and a modest tailwind from FX and commodities, which combined more than offsets our normal price downs. EBITDA and operating income are expected to be $2.4 billion and $1.6 billion at the midpoint respectively with strong year-over-year sales conversion, despite operating with $100 million of COVID related costs and incurring approximately $80 million to $100 million in manufacturing and logistics costs related to supply chain shortages this year. Lastly, benefits of our on-going initiatives are more than offsetting the $150 million of austerity measures taken primarily during the pandemic related shutdowns in the second quarter of 2020. We expect earnings per share in the range of $3.35 and $3.85 a share or $4.20 to $4.70 per share, when excluding the impact of the equity income losses of emotional joint venture. And lastly, operating cash flow of approximately $1.9 billion. As a reminder, we will resume providing quarterly guidance when we have improved visibility on customer production schedules, and global supply chain disruptions. With that, I'd like to hand the call back to Kevin first closing remarks.
Kevin Clark:
Thanks, Joe. Let's wrap up on slide 14 before opening it up for questions. As we navigate the road ahead, and we're closely monitoring the current environment, including the pace of economic recovery and the on-going disruptions in the supply chain. That said, our portfolio of advanced technologies continues to outgrow the market, while world class talent leading class structure and strong track record of execution positions us to lead the industry forward in this recovery. Our performance is a direct result of our strong cultural foundation built on the values of thinking and acting like owners. And we remain laser focused on delivering on our commitments to our customers, to our shareholders and to our employees, while advancing our mission to create a more sustainable business and environment. Aptiv’s industry leading portfolio is enabling a more efficient and accelerated path to the electrified software defined vehicle now demanded by consumers and required by our customers and we're helping to create a safer, greener and more connected world as we advance our path to carbon neutral operations and products by 2040. At Aptiv, we're moving forward with purpose as a company with a strong financial position, and the flexibility to reinvest in our people, and our technology portfolio, to create significant value for all of our stakeholders. Thank you again for your time. Let's open up the line for questions.
Operator:
Thank you.[Operator Instructions]. We will take our first question from Joseph Spak of RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead.
Joseph Spak:
Thank you. Good morning, everyone. Kevin and Joe, I know you weren't sort of, giving quarterly guidance because of all the uncertainty. But it does sound like maybe the first quarter came in stronger than you had planned. And obviously some strong performance in the growth drivers of high voltage and active safety and related margin performance. I guess what I'm what I'm trying to better understand in the context of your reiterating guidance’s, is this sort of a cadence issue? And you were sort of unclear about how things will or when things will come in? Or is there also a little bit more level of caution, given some of the volatile uncertain schedules he talked about, and maybe some higher costs on [Indiscernible] raid that you pointed to.
Kevin Clark:
Yes, maybe Joe I’ll start and Joe can walk you through more of the details. Q1 was a strong quarter, without a doubt, you know, very, very volatile environment. And based on what we have visibility to today, Q2 will be even more volatile than Q1. And operating in that environment, presents challenges. Now, we're confident from an operational standpoint, we're buttoned down and we're operating well over confident that we'll continue to operate at a high level as we head into Q2. But again, it'll be choppy as we look at some of the challenges and disruptions in the supply chain. Our focus is on ensuring that our customers get the parts they need to produce the vehicles that they're trying to produce the consumers want. And based on our forward visibility as we look into Q3 and Q4, all of our customers are very committed to producing the vehicles that they were unable to produce in Q1 and Q2 and Q3 and Q4. And we're all working very actively across the supply chain from the semiconductor providers to the resin providers all the way through the supply chain. To the customers and in a tough environment we're operating reasonably well. But again, it's challenging. It's requiring incremental resources, incremental costs, from a day-to-day management standpoint, in our factories, as well as from, from a transportation and logistics standpoint, incremental engineering resources to make sure that we provide our customers with options or incremental flexibility to the extent we see parts shortages that we provide, provide them with additional opportunities. And, Q1 when you really look at Q1, a big portion of the outgrowth and Joe talk about it is some element of restocking of the overall supply chain in areas like cable management products, as well as connectors, which certainly drive some benefit in the first half of the year. But that would be my voiceover in terms of how we view the environment as well as how we perform, Joe, you can provide more, more visibility.
Joseph Massaro:
Yes, no, obviously, I agree with everything Kevin said. I did mention Joe, a couple of times in my prepared comments around, just the replenishment within the connector side of the business and Hellermanntyton we were expecting that over the course of the year. I think as we look at it right now, it's to your cadence comment coming, certainly looks like it's coming in the first half of the year. That's going to be worth a few points of growth in the first half of the year versus, versus the back half. Again, it's good business, it's the tears replenishing, it's the distribution channels replenishing and we had expected it in the year. So it's more of a sort of when it when it's happening. And then also, as Kevin mentioned, we're seeing increased volatility in Q2, the original chip disruption or supply chain constraints that were sort of what I'll call sort of COVID demand related, those are starting to ebb down in Q2, as we expected, but the impact of the Naka Fire and the Texas weather on Q2 unit production will, at least based on what we're seeing right now, could certainly be as big from a number of units perspective for the industry as the original disruption. And obviously, all of that's coming in Q2. So we're just mindful of how much production the industry can get through and keep tuned, still confidence be made up in the back half of the year, but obviously have a fair amount of volatility we're managing through here over the next three to four months.
Kevin Clark:
But I think it's fair to say one thing, I think if Joe and I were to bat, we would say Q2 disruption is bigger than Q1 disruption based on availability of semiconductor parts associated with that. The web, the challenges with the weather down in South West U.S. as well as that Naka Fire.
Joseph Spak:
Thanks for -- thanks for all that. The second question, I guess it just dawned on the cash here and the 2.8 billion, you're effectively pointing to another billion in free cash over the next few quarters. I know, back when you raised some capital a year ago, you wanted a little bit of a war chest to speak. And you can time the M&A but it appears that war chest is going to get quite large. So any updated thoughts that are on either buybacks or other uses of that cash?
Joseph Massaro:
Our primary focus remains deployment for M&A, Joe. We're working at it, that pipeline's coming back strong. Obviously, there's, some, some challenges from a travel perspective and meeting perspective around remaining COVID restrictions, particularly outside of the U.S., but continue to believe over the course of the course of the year, that that's where that cash gets utilized.
Kevin Clark:
Joe, it's important to note that, post COVID the reality all the trends that we've talked about safe green connected, have actually accelerated. Demand for high voltage solutions, we talked in our prior call about high voltage pursuits increasing over the last couple of years from, 10 to 15 to in the range of 50. We're up north of 100 now, so there's tremendous opportunity for us to invest organically or via acquisition. And there are a number of areas that Joe and the M&A team are focused or focused on in and around advancing technologies to support the growth in high voltage electrification as well as to support increased, increased needs for software in areas like a ADAS, user experience, and smart vehicle architecture. So there are a number of opportunities to deploy that capital in a real smart way.
Joseph Spak:
Okay, thanks for all that color.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from Rod Lache of Wolfe Research. Please go ahead.
Rod Lache:
Good morning, everybody. Well, I understand the there's a lot of volatility here replenishment in the first quarter volatility in the second quarter was hoping you might be able to just take us out a little bit, maybe into the back half or into next year. And speak to whether there are any kind of long term consequences from what you're seeing right now, either in terms of growth over market, or cost for Aptiv’s people or your customers. Do you think shifting towards a higher mix of vehicles, delaying launches or doing anything that would affect you longer term?
Kevin Clark:
Yes, Rod. It's Kevin, I'll start, we have a, we'll start with a view that that, over the medium term, you're going to continue to see supply change, tightness. Certainly, from a semiconductor standpoint, as well as in others, like resin that will continue through 2022 that will continue. From an overall demand standpoint, consumer demand as you know is very, very strong, which certainly creates significant amount of customer demand or customer pull for Aptiv. That demand is in around the areas where we play, right. It's about accelerated electrification, increased demand for products, like ADAS or ADAS solutions, more demand for connectivity solutions, all of which are places that we play. A much significant driver increase from our customers and software defined vehicle solutions. So pull for smart vehicle architecture. So as we take a step back, and we look at consumer demands, positive customer polls, strong supply chain challenge, but we'll work through that. And, today we're operating, I think we have 16 product redesign programs that we're going through providing our customers with either alternative choices, from a, from a product availability standpoint, or cost reduction opportunities that we review with the team on a daily basis. So we think that's something that we'll manage through reasonably well. From a customer standpoint, on top of the strong consumer poll, all of our customers are focused on building their most profitable, most highly contented vehicles. So a portion of the benefit that we saw in Q1 and I'd expect we'd see in Q2 is is pulled for, more advanced ADAS solutions, more high voltage, electrification, all those things that consumers want, which is a very strong tailwind. So, as we sit here today, like everyone, we, we struggle day to day to deal with the supply chain challenges. We're operating extremely well. We're dealing with some very well. We're putting in the processes or, or have the processes in place to offset that. But the underlying trend or demand for the areas that we play, we'd actually say has accelerated post COVID. And this whole semiconductor issue probably further accelerates the fact or the demand for the areas that we play.
Rod Lache:
Thanks for that. And just secondly, we're seeing so many automakers now, talking actively about the things that you guys have been talking about for 10 years with respect to software defined capability and in architectures. But they're also increasingly talking about taking control of software competency and house, you're hearing that from Ford with the FNV for GM is hiring 5000 engineers, Volkswagens head of software said that they're going to go from 10% of the software value adding a car to theirs aspiring to 60%. Are you from where you sit, seeing the same thing? And do you do you think that has any implications for you in terms of the software value add that you're delivering?
Kevin Clark:
Listen, in some areas, we are in some areas, we're not in. And -- our we're focused on developing solutions that ultimately integrate in that full SVA concept that you said we've been talking about for a number of years, which provides us with software content opportunities, integration, content, opportunities and hardware content opportunities, and I will focus is on ensuring we provide our customers with whatever they want, all of it or part of it. And we know there are a lot of OEM customers, we're talking about increasing their investment in software, for a number of them that will make sense. For a lot of them, they will have challenges executing on that. And, we're really focused on ensuring that we're there to help. And there are others who have, frankly, don't view it as a core competency and will and will outsource it. So it doesn't our view on our strategy. We think it validates what we've been talking about and the need for the competencies that a company like our ours has, and it's an area that we'll continue to aggressively invest in. And you've seen, the poll as it relates to bookings in areas like advanced ADAS solutions, user experience, high voltage electrification. So we continue to view it as an opportunity. It's reflected in the six to eight points of, outgrowth that Joe's been talking about.
Rod Lache:
Yes, that's a good point that we're seeing it in the bookings. Thanks for that.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from Chris McNally of Evercore. Please go ahead.
Chris McNally:
Thanks so much, Team. I want to ask two questions specifically about just the high voltage and EV business. So the first one is around some market share math, and I know he won't be able to 100% confirmed. So maybe just more. Tell me if I'm crazy about the math, but I'm just going to lay out. So you won about 900 million in awards Q1. We don't know where that will end the full year, but maybe that's 3 billion plus you've been running this 2 billion plus range. And I calculated on 2025. Maybe the industry is something like 8 billion to 9 billion awards. Currently looking at 2025, EV number is 500 to 600 hours of content per vehicle. That would mean that you could have a share in the 40% range, which would be sort of above your traditional electrical architecture, but not sort of out of the realm of possibility. So does that math is anything wildly off in sort of the calculations?
Kevin Clark:
Yes, I'm not sure if we've looked at it that way. Joe, can comment on it? I think working backward at a high level, right? The industry is committed to spend about $300 billion investing in creating or developing high voltage electrification platforms or vehicles. Correct. I mean, you've seen the announcements from GM $20 billion to deliver 30 new EVs. There was a recent BCG study that talks about 50% of vehicle production will be high voltage by 2026, which is a significant, significantly, higher percentage than what was predicted just a year ago. Certainly, there's a tremendous tailwind for high voltage electrification. OEMs have reached the point where they've, they've made the choice between internal combustion engine and high voltage, your battery electric vehicles, and they've chosen the ladder, and there's a significant investment in that area. And it's a huge opportunity for us. I mentioned, just a few years ago, we're pursuing 10 to 15 programs per year. This year we'll be pursuing, somewhere between 75 and 100 programs. And when you look at our historic win rate, which is north of kind of 60%, 65%, and you look at our core capabilities, and what we're able to bring in terms of a full system solution, the opportunity is significant.
Joseph Massaro:
Yes, Chris, I mean -- like Kevin said, we haven't put it back into the math the way you just did, but qualitatively, we've got that business has one out of three and a half, content on one of -- one out of three and a half vehicles manufactured today on the low voltage side, right. So we do play at very high level from a, capability and customer share perspective. And then when you add on top of that, I think one of the advantages we have for customers in high voltage, is we're able to meet very high volume requirements very quickly, just given the scale of, of signal and power solutions, so we can get off, get out of the dates get out of the gates very quickly, you're seeing volumes ramp. I mean, we had our high voltage business with some of the launches, it grew 125% in Q1. Now, obviously, that's a very strong quarter. But, you're really looking at the quality of the launches in Europe and China, the quantity and quality of the launches. And I think the other thing that's, one of the one of the read throughs here is that will always have to make decisions around which vehicles to build given the supply chain constraints. They're focusing in North America on truck and SUVs, but certainly in Europe, they're continuing to focus on EVs. So, again, we're at a, we've got a very strong market position and low voltage space would expect that certainly at least be the starting point for our highest high voltage business over time and to be able to grow from there.
Chris McNally:
Great, and it's super helpful. And then the second quick question, just on the growth rate for this year. Correct me if I'm wrong, maybe I just set up an old projection, but I think you were targeting roughly 55% or 60%, high voltage growth for the year, until you mentioned the 125% in Q1, typically, the seasonality isn't weighted too much. If, if anything, we're going to get a second half push from both Europe and production looking at some of the major EV platforms. Is there some upward pressure to that, to that 55% to 60% for the full year, assuming even, a chip shortages continue.
Kevin Clark:
Listen, I think we're going to stay away from sort of the details on the back half, just until when, as we mentioned, the volatility settles down. We're obviously remain confident in the full year outlook, including the 55% to 60% growth from on high voltage and that certainly acknowledged Q1 is a good start in that direction. But we're going to stay away until we get the dust settles here, but hopefully over the coming out over the coming quarter.
Chris McNally:
Okay, great, thank you.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Mark Delaney of Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.
Mark Delaney:
Yes, good morning, and thanks very much for taking the questions. There's been an increase in auto OEM announcements recently about plans to bring new ADAS platforms to market. And I think after this ADAS business, if I'm remembering correctly, is north of a billion dollars of revenue already and has been growing quickly. But maybe you could elaborate on what the company's seen in terms of the design and pipeline opportunity with ADAS and what you're expecting for future growth in that business?
Kevin Clark:
Yes, demand for ADAS continues, right? You're going to see, just a few years ago, 50% of global vehicle production had an ADAS, ADAS system on it. I think today we're at about 35%. We're at about 65% deal I'm sorry. And then in a few years, it'll be 75% or more regulations driving other requirement for ADAS especially in places like Europe, endcaps driving the demand for ADAS Solutions in North America, Europe, as well as China. It's a, whether it's an option, or it's a standard, it's a product or a solution, which helps OEM sell cars one, and two, it's typically a pretty profitable option. So they get, they get price and margin for it. Consumers demanded, if you're in a car with an Advanced ADAS Solution, there's no way you're going backwards. So rebuy rates, I think are up north of 95% and ADAS demand continues to be strong. I think our outlook this year is ADAS will grow roughly 35% on a year-over-year basis, market growth is about half of that. But market growth will continue to be extremely strong. And we're well positioned, based on our history and market position in ADAS to continue to grow well over market in the space.
Mark Delaney:
That's helpful. Thanks. And then my follow up question was about the company's commitment, so that it made today to CO2 reduction. And thank you for what the company is doing on that front. I recognize the cost of clean energy is falling, and you can actually be cheaper than traditional fuel sources. But you think about meeting these objectives that you articulated today, is there any change we should be expecting in terms of the financial model and what sort of margins the company may be able to operate at? Thanks.
Joseph Massaro:
Well Mark, it’s Joe. I mean we're obviously feel comfortable achieving these targets within the existing framework. I mean, we really, taking, taking these targets in the process to achieve them and really internalize them. We treat them very much like any other sort of performance target that we have in the business and if added it to, really the list of things that needs to be balanced to hit the financial framework and we feel comfortable, we'll be able to do that.
Mark Delaney:
Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Next question comes from Emmanuel Rosner of Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.
Emmanuel Rosner:
Hi, good morning, everyone.
Kevin Clark:
Good morning.
Emmanuel Rosner:
I was hoping to put a finer point around your growth over market outlook. So I think maintain that six points for the full year obviously you had an extremely strong start with some things like, refilling of stocks and all this, but just generally feels like, as you said, throughout this call, a lot of automakers are prioritizing a lot of the vehicles that have more content. And so can you just talk about the puts and take around the growth of our markets for the full year still at six points, that's still towards the lower end of your normal framework? And why, if there's any upside risk to this?
Kevin Clark:
Yes, well, Emmanuel, we're going to stay away until till really dust settles in a year from, refining the full year outlook, and, obviously remain very comfortable hitting, hitting that original guidance from January. As I mentioned, we are seeing some channel replenishment within the engineering components, businesses, both tiers on the auto side, as well as on the industrial side of the businesses, the channel, the channel partners. I think first half versus second half, I'd call that probably, call that three to four points of growth moving from, in the first half that won't repeat. I you know, to us, it's really we expected it to happen in the full year, we'd sort of assume maybe back half, but as all things sort of bounce back related, they seem to be happening faster than faster than original expectations. There's a bit of a couple points in the first half that are from what I'll call the mix, the heavy content mix, as customers have to make choices around with vehicles to manufacture, they're leaning towards the trucks and SUV, the EVs, as I mentioned. Right now, the assumption is, and again, we just don't have the updated schedules to revive these, we're still I think as you work back to the, to the full year 6%, you'd think through, maybe there was down, the mix, goes back to a bit more of a normalized mix in the back half of the year. So there's a couple things like that. It was an overall, I mean, remember that 6% to 8% for us as a long term outlook or committed to that for the next number of years. And, obviously feel very confident with it both within from a 2021 context as well as well as an audio perspective.
Emmanuel Rosner:
Okay, that's helpful color. Second question is about promotional and in particular, your partnership with Lyft. Can you update us on the status, sort of the next milestones, obviously over the last few weeks or so there was also this announcement of Lyft selling there in a separate autonomous operations to Toyota, but with also the potential some partnership and the robotaxi there as well. So any, any impact on your relationship or these things just to two separate contracts?
Kevin Clark:
Yes, there. It's Kevin. They're two separate activities, our relation most of the emotional team is, is doing a fantastic job. I think you saw the announcement in February of this year, the first driverless testing you're doing in Las Vegas, the selection of the HMG ionic Q5 platform as the next platform that they're going to put their Gen two automated driving platform on. So a battery electric vehicle, a really attractive vehicle from Hyundai. The team could use to march forward. Lyft is a strong partner, we have an agreement with Lyft, where, where they're going to be purchasing vehicles promotional and launching in a second city in the United States in 2023. So, so more to come and it’s a relationship that we really value and we're looking to expand.
Emmanuel Rosner:
Thank you very much.
Kevin Clark:
Thank you.
Operator:
Our next question comes from David Katz of Jeffries. Please go ahead.
David Katz:
Good morning, everyone. A couple of questions on Signal and Power, first was hoping you could provide some more color on the commodity headwinds in the quarter itself, and maybe how you're thinking about the impact for the balance of the year.
Joseph Massaro:
That's Joe, let me I'll certainly start. So yes, listen, I think that, the obviously the, the one of the top of the list is copper. Copper is the prices is up there. We haven't seen these levels from 2011 since 2011. I do think it's important to know we have been here before with copper, right. So there is precedent for how our how it flows through the P&L and how our sort of offset mechanisms work. We're about 80% pass through on copper. So copper increases changes in copper prices, both positive negative pass through to customers. The remaining 20% we had so we're fairly well insulated from copper. We talked about this before, there will be a margin rate impact, as higher copper prices flow through, right, because they flow through the past throw they flow through as revenue on sort of a pass through basis. So you tend to get some margin rate impact. But again, as we as we get through the back half or into the back half of the year and schedule start to start to straight now we'll obviously be updating for macros as well. But that's more margin rate than dollars. Seeing some inflation around things like resin, obviously, we expect some introductory [ph] prices will go up over the course of the back half of the year into next year. Semiconductor probably being more ASUX, I know, your question was SPS. But, at this point, the inflation that we're seeing and expecting I would put into the context of, manageable relative to our sort of broader commercial discussions with customers over the coming year, as well as just our, mechanisms that we have in place to offset costs and find additional efficiencies. So copper, by far the largest, but structurally we're very well positioned to, to mitigate or pass through those increases.
David Katz:
Okay, got it. That's helpful. Thanks, Joe. And then one more follow up on the restocking discussion. I guess, could you just remind us of your distribution exposure, and then I was hoping you could talk about your expectations for kind of underlying CV and industrial market growth. From our vantage point it seems like industry wide connect order books or record levels right now. And understanding the visibility is a bit lower there. But we're just trying to get a sense for kind of the end demand expectations versus the channel fill that's clearly taken place.
Joseph Massaro:
Sure, I'll let me start with let me start with CV we're obviously we've got strong growth as a contributor in that, both our industrial and in markets are our contributors to that space. So we're seeing only and if you have the growth rates right there just the CV growth rates continue to be our growth above market continues to be very strong in CV.
Elena Rosman:
Yes, but we were in CV just over 25% in the quarter.
Joseph Massaro:
And then and again, that's really driven in part by the SPS business. Obviously, the connection systems business is developing a strong, a strong CV business, as well as some things like infotainment in the ASUX business. As it relates to the distribution channel, a smaller part of our business, it's in the hundreds of millions of dollars, obviously more of an impact in a particular quarter when we restock. That's within SPS. So the Hellermanntyton business as well as our connection systems business does push through those push through distribution. But again, it's framed in the hundreds of millions of dollars type volume, but impactful in the first half of the year, just given the level of given the level of replenishment distribution. And also when we talk about restock, we are seeing increased levels go into the tier ones on the auto side, David so that comment is broadly restocked with the both the tier ones as well as the distribution channels.
David Katz:
Okay, got it. That's helpful. Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from Dan Levy of Credit Suisse. Please go ahead.
Dan Levy:
Hi, good morning. Thank you. I wanted to say sorry, sorry, if you had mentioned this earlier, but I want to go into the growth of the market in the first quarter, the 15 points. If you could just provide any color by the drivers by region, I assume that I know that there was obviously some lumpiness there but pretty big growth of market in the other regions as well and then give me a sense how much of the benefit you got from partially built vehicles. And then how much of the benefit was mixed in the quarter?
Joseph Massaro:
Yes, let me the growth over market we've got we've got laid out in the in the deck, really strong, strong growth over market in and obviously China as we talked about. But you know, all regions showing positive growth 9%, 10% across North America and Europe helped obviously, by the high voltage business held by the engineered components, not just the restock, but also just the strain underlying strength in that business. And again, I would expect, I think as you get to the back half of the year, particularly in China, we'd expect some of that to some of that growth, a remarkable slowdown, as we just start to emerge. China was out very, sort of as the market that first took off post COVID. So had a very strong back half of back half the year last year. As it relates to partial vehicle builds, that's obviously we know they're happening. That's, we have very little to know, to really know, visibility to that. And in most cases, it because we're shipping and they're building and, to the extent that's, a part that we're contributing, obviously that remains and an order for us, but really don't have any type of visibility into sort of, broadly speaking, what that means for the industry realize that, people will comment that there's a lot of, there's a lot of yard holes, yard hole vehicles at this point out there, but really don't necessarily doesn't necessarily flow through to what we're saying.
Dan Levy:
Okay, great. And then my second question, I just want to follow up on Rob's question earlier in specific to active safety. And I know about it was a month ago or so we saw a headline, Volvo is expanding its collaboration with Nvidia, and I think that's more on the compute side. But clearly, it seems like you have more, automakers trying to do a little more on the active safety side. And I recognize there's multiple ways you can work with customer and, bigger pie rolls may change, but maybe you could just give us a sense of how that dynamic is working out with automakers. And are they taking on the Aptiv face side? Are they taking more of an active role in forming their functionality versus relying on suppliers? And what's the piece that's always going to be with you regardless of whether the automakers themselves want to bring in more functionality and help?
Kevin Clark:
Yes, Dan it’s Kevin. I, listen again, it's all over the place. So it depends on the OEM. And I think you have to start with the first point in terms of the overall market, and penetration rates of active safety is, is increasing significantly, in the fastest growing areas really in and around that L2, L2+. Right, so you have unit growth. And then you also have significant content growth. There are OEMs, who historically have, and some who it's an increased focus now want to be more involved in that, that overall development of the active safety solution, it tends to be today in and around feature development. So how does the vehicle respond to certain particular driving incidents so that they give it a feel of a particular brand, whether it be more aggressive, or less aggressive, aggressive, so most of what we've seen, is in and around the feature side. We have some customers that were doing soup to nuts, the full platform for. We have other customers who were doing the platform, and we're integrating some of the features that they would like to develop. And our Gen two ADAS platform, which is under developed now is going to give OEM customers the ability to do more or less of that, and provide them with tools necessary to actually develop features, if that's if that's something that that we'd like to do and make it easy for us to integrate those into the overall into the overall platform. Is there, the areas that I think it would be more challenging for OEMs to take responsibility for is to your point on the controller side, one, two on the perception system side, whether that be the radar solution, the vision solution, the LIDAR solution. On the sensor fusion side, so taking all those inputs and fusing them and developing the software necessary to how does the vehicle perform and react to those various inputs? I think those would likely be the most challenging areas. But we'll see. I mean, some OEM customers may decide that something that that they want to try. I think there's, as a company that's been in been in this particular area for a very long period of time. It's complex, as you know, it's a safety feature. So it needs to perform 100% of the time. And the benefit of history and experience, I think creates a bit of a headwind as relates to insourcing all that activity,
Dan Levy:
Great.
Kevin Clark:
But again, our focus is on providing our customers with what it is that they're looking for in driving profitable revenue growth in doing that.
Dan Levy:
That's helpful. Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Our final question comes from Brian Johnson of Barclays. Please go ahead.
Brian Johnson:
Yes. Good morning, or good afternoon. If you're in Dublin. A different spin on a couple of questions that come up around OEMs more active in technology. This one, though, is about the impact of the chip shortage and what it means for call it a high performance procurement organization. At the OEMs, we had a consultant on a webinar talking about how his firm would be encouraging OEMs to look deep into the supply chain to understand where the chips are coming from that was clearly best practice after Fukushima, but also to begin directed by many more chips. So it raises the question of if one is a built to print, electronic black box manufacturer directed by would be detrimental, to margin? So really two questions one, do you see that trend as well as something you would encourage and being, kind of as you think about your product lines, and especially how you've evolved them towards higher margin software? How would Aptiv fare in that kind of environment?
Kevin Clark:
Yes, that's a great question, Brian. Now, obviously, there's more, there's more semiconductor content going into the car, as you know, and having a good sense for the supply chain and, and capacity within various aspects of the semiconductor supply chain is extremely important. What you're referring to is, you can see a scenario where that works for, things like microcontrollers, where it's a more commodity like, semiconductor product, there's very little customization. It's a fairly standard solution that goes across, multiple areas within the car. When you think about the higher performing areas, like active safety, like radar, like vision systems, obviously, you're talking about a very different map -- better because the engineering activity and the relationship. So obviously, you need to know what capacity in the supply chain looks like architecture that, that we're headed down today. The reality is, as we as we see upward integration is we see domain consolidation. The reality is the number of those microcontrollers that go into the car actually are significantly reduced. Right? You go basically cut out that number in half. So I think there's an element of this activities. I do believe in very supportive, that the OEMs will come with a much more focus on the supply chain, to understand what is supply chain resilience look like? Where is there not only dual validation, but dual capacity available? And how do we continue to minimize risk?
Brian Johnson:
And just as a quick follow on. Is that suppliers, some suppliers in Europe have been blamed by their customers for not handling the chip shortage, would you say Aptiv for an OEM who wants to look further up his or her supply chain? Is that the kind of, service visibility, transparency that you add? And does it actually help your OEM relationships?
Kevin Clark:
Yes, I think it helps our OEM relationships. I think we've fared very well through this challenging environment. I think in reality, unless you were sitting on a year's worth of, of chips, I think it would be hard for anyone in this space not to be impacted by or impact a potential customer. I think that is the reality when you look at the effects of COVID. And you look at demand spikes outside of automotive as well as inside of an automotive. There's an element of the perfect storm, but I think it's important we as an industry, learn from it and make whatever adjustments calibrations that need to be made. And, we certainly have and, we'll continue to improve in areas that we identify whether that's redundancy or different ways of doing business.
Brian Johnson:
Okay, thank you.
Kevin Clark:
Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. That concludes today's question-and-answer session. I would now like to turn the call back to Mr. Kevin Clark for any additional or closing remarks.
Kevin Clark:
Great. Thank you very much. Thanks everyone for your time. Just a few closing comments. Just to highlight as it relates to Q1 results and as we talk about the full year. Obviously the business is performing well. Supply chain is obviously and it will continue to be choppy as we head into Q2 and improve as we move in Q3 and Q4. If the cost are increasing in light of the supply chain tightness or they will continue to have, so it will continue through some cost pressure, but we have several initiatives underway to engineer out these engineer out these cost pressure and actually maintain and improve margins. Tailwinds are accelerating in around safe green and connected post COVID, the demand for the solutions that we provide whether it’s high voltage electrification, ADAS connectivity it’s actually accelerating. So that’s certainly a positive. As Joe mentioned, we are highly confident our full year outlook. Again, near term it’s going to be a bit choppy. As we look out here in 2021, we think we are past the multi-year growth which is going to be multi-unit pace as well as content growth based as we see more demand for high voltage electrification, practise safety solutions and vehicle connectivity. So, although challenging environment right now we are extremely excited about the balance of the year as well as the future. So thank you everyone for your time. Have a great day.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today’s conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Good day and welcome to the Aptiv Fourth Quarter 2020 Earnings Conference Call. My name is Simon, and I'll be your conference operator today. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speakers' remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session. Thank you. Elena Rosman, Aptiv's Vice President of Investor Relations, you may begin your conference.
Elena Rosman:
Thank you, Simon. Good morning and thank you to everyone for joining Aptiv's fourth quarter 2020 earnings conference call. To follow along with today's presentation, our slides can be found at ir.aptiv.com. Today's review of our actual financials excludes restructuring and other special items and will address the continuing operations of Aptiv. The reconciliation between GAAP and non-GAAP measures for both our Q4 financials as well our outlook for the full-year 2021 are included at the back of today's presentation and the earnings press release. Turning to slide2. Please see a disclosure on forward-looking statements, which reflect Aptiv's current view of future financial performance, which may be materially different from our actual performance for reasons that we cite in our Form 10-K and other SEC filings, including uncertainties posed by the COVID-19 pandemic and the difficulty in predicting its future course and impact on the global economy. Joining us today will be Kevin Clark, Aptiv's President and CEO, and Joe Massaro, CFO and Senior Vice President of Business Operations. Kevin will provide a strategic update on the business, and then Joe will cover the financials results and our outlook in more detail. With that, I would like to turn the call over to Kevin Clark.
Kevin Clark:
Thank you, Elena. And thank you, everyone, for joining us today. Our 2020 results and our outlook for the year ahead underscore the work we've done to build a stronger and more sustainable business, one that grows faster and more profitably and generates more consistent earnings and cash flows. I'm proud of how well our teams performed during these difficult times. And it remains challenging to meet recovery demand while managing through the COVID-19 pandemic and the further tightening of the global supply chain. Our continued resiliency is a result of the passion and the commitment of our team members to deliver for our customers and our shareholders. And as a result, we experienced strong fourth quarter financial results. Revenue increased 14% to $4.2 billion, representing 13 points of growth over the underlying market. Operating income and earnings per share totaled $476 million and $1.13 respectively, resulting from strong volume growth, partially offset by incremental manufacturing and logistics expenses associated with ongoing supply chain challenges, which I'll cover in more detail shortly. Our 2020 results further validate our business strategy, including revenue growth of 10 points over market and $18 billion of new business awards, reflecting our unique position at the intersection of the safe, green and connected mega trends that are accelerating in our industry. Moving to slide 4. As we enter the start of the economic recovery, we face a new set of supply chain challenges, while also continuing to operate safely in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic. Our outlook for 2021 reflects market share gains and content growth in our key product lines, including high voltage electrification and active safety, driving 16% revenue growth, 6 points over underlying vehicle production, and translating into strong margin expansion and earnings growth. We also are forecasting significant cash flow generation and our ability to reinvest that cash to deliver incremental value creation is a key component of our investment thesis. At the same time, we're closely monitoring and adjusting to the impact the COVID-19 pandemic is having on our operating environment. And our industry is now facing increased pressure from a global shortage in semiconductor chips, impacting virtually all of our suppliers and customers around the world. As a result, we expect the environment to remain challenging for at least the first half of the year, and it reflected the uncertainty associated with OEM production schedules and the timing of replenished inventory levels in our full year forecast for vehicle production, which we now expect to increase 10% in 2021. While our team is doing an excellent job minimizing these effects, as customers idle plants and look to prioritize certain vehicle platforms, the costs associated with the related labor and manufacturing inefficiencies and higher logistics expenses have been included in our financial outlook for the full year. Due to limited visibility to near-term production schedules, this precludes us from providing guidance for the first quarter. However, our confidence in the strength of the underlying economic recovery, combined with a planned second half increase in semiconductor capacity, does give us a reasonable level of confidence in our full year outlook, which Joe will cover in more detail shortly. Turning to slide 5. Despite the challenges we currently face, we remain focused on further enhancing our track record of outperformance and long-term value creation. While our business model has been tested over the last several months, our performance has validated our industry-leading position and through cycle resiliency. As we look ahead, we've positioned Aptiv to continue to outperform with focused investments that have enhanced our business model and expanded the addressable markets we serve, leveraging our unique brain and nervous system capabilities to deliver even more content on the electrified software-defined vehicles of the future, yielding a creative growth opportunities in our two business segments and presenting incremental value creation opportunities through smart capital deployment and delivering meaningful shareholder returns as the economic recovery unfolds. As shown on slide 6, fourth quarter new business bookings totaled $7.5 billion, reflecting robust win rates and a ramp up in consumer activity. Full-year 2020 bookings reached $18 billion, roughly flat compared to 2019 levels when you adjust for the current outlook for global vehicle production. Our Advanced Safety and User Experience segment new business bookings totaled $4.7 billion for the year, including $3.7 billion in active safety awards. New business bookings for our Signal and Power Solutions segment totaled more than $13 billion, including another $2 billion of high voltage electrification awards. We continue to see an acceleration of powertrain electrification, driven by both more stringent CO2 regulations, principally in Europe and China, and the increasing momentum of consumer acceptance in the US. Our complementary high voltage distribution and connection systems, as well as cable management solutions, significantly reduce the weight and mass of the vehicle architecture through smarter, more efficient design, perfectly positioning Aptiv to benefit from the twofold increase in addressable content on a high voltage electric vehicle. In summary, the cumulative amount of our new business bookings over the last few years gives us confidence in our ability to sustain strong above-market growth across both of our business segments, validating the strength of our portfolio of market-relevant technologies aligned to the safe, green and connected megatrends. Turning to slide 7. Aptiv is enabling our customers to accelerate their transition to an electrified software-defined vehicle by employing a more holistic engineering and development approach to optimize the software and system solutions to span the full vehicle stack. Throughout the COVID-19 pandemic, we continue to fully fund strategic growth initiatives. And last month, we unveiled the latest results of those investments in our Innovation in Motion virtual event, which included Aptiv Smart Vehicle Architecture, which represents Aptiv's vision for the full electrical and electronic architecture of the vehicle. SVA represents a scalable approach that lowers the total cost of ownership for our OEM customers, while unlocking more value in the vehicle at the point of aggregation, creating new hardware and software revenue opportunities for both Aptiv and our OEM customers. Our industry-leading position in domain controllers and expertise in advanced ADAS solutions provides a terrific launching pad as we work with our customers on their next gen architecture solutions. For customers on the path to SVA, we unveiled our next gen ADAS platform, leveraging our deep systems expertise and learning from deploying the industry's largest, most diverse safety installed base over the last 20 years, with active safety technologies in use by 20 different global automakers. We also highlighted our new approach to zone controllers, which leverages insights from our unique position with both the brain and nervous system of the vehicle to safely and efficiently distribute power and up-integrate body functionality, while simplifying the vehicle manufacturing process, thereby enhancing the scalability of advanced vehicle architecture systems. Aptiv will be the first to market with zone control with a European OEM in 2022. And we have a robust pipeline of commercial pursuits planned for 2021. Electrification is also an integral part of the SVA roadmap, and Aptiv has emerged as a partner of choice, capable of providing comprehensive and optimized high voltage solutions to our customers. That agility has led to increased share of wallet with both leading and emerging electric vehicle manufacturers ramping up production globally, including a leading US EV company, as well as companies such as Rivian, Neo and Volkswagen. Lastly, many of these same advancements apply inside the cabin, where we've developed a scalable user experience platform solution, enhancing performance, while reducing total systems costs through seamless integration of multiple functional domains. As we looked at 2021 and beyond, the innovation that we have in motion will further expand our competitive moat and take us closer to our mission of delivering a safer, greener and more connected future of mobility. Before turning it over to Joe, on slide 8, I want to take a moment to highlight a number of commercial and technological milestones at Motional, our automated driving joint venture with the Hyundai Motor Group. In December, Motional announced an agreement with Lyft to launch a multimarket robotaxi service in major US cities beginning in 2023, utilizing a scalable, automated mobility on-demand vehicle platform, developed in partnership with Hyundai and available to customers beginning in 2022. Last year, Motional also entered into a partnership with Via to deploy self-driving vehicles on their network in a city to be announced soon. And in January, Motional announced a partnership to deploy Cox Automotive Mobility's Pivet as their premier fleet service provider. Beginning with Motional self-driving fleet in Las Vegas, this partnership lays the foundation to support the company as it expands the market for robotaxis in other major US cities. These commercial developments are underpinned by rigorous third-party validation and safety assessments, which have allowed Motional to receive approval for testing of fully driverless systems on public roads in Nevada in early 2021. In summary, Motional made tremendous progress delivering on its commitments in 2020, paving the way for commercial success in the years to come. I'll now hand the call over to Joe Massaro for an overview of our financial results. Joe?
Joseph Massaro :
Thanks, Kevin. Good morning, everyone. Starting on slide 9, the recovery momentum in the fourth quarter generated strong sales, income and cash performance in the quarter despite significant incremental safety, manufacturing and logistics costs associated with operating with COVID and the mounting supply chain constraints. Revenues of $4.2 billion were up 14% year-over-year, significantly ahead of vehicle production, which was up 1% in the quarter. The stronger-than-expected sales volumes resulted in adjusted EBITDA of $678 million, up 40 basis points compared to the prior year, reflecting stronger volumes and disciplined cost management, partially offset by approximately $70 million of COVID and supply chain related costs. Earnings per share in the quarter were $1.13, reflecting higher operating income, offset by the Motional JV and higher share count and tax expense. Operating cash flow was strong at $799 million, driven by higher EBITDA and lower year-over-year cash taxes. Lastly, capital expenditures were $95 million, bringing the total to $584 million for the year, just under our $600 million outlook. Looking at fourth quarter revenues in more detail on slide 10. Globally, we benefited from stronger vehicle production, as well as increased demand for high voltage electrical architecture and engineered components, primarily in Europe and China. North America revenues grew 11% despite the market being flat, driven by new launch volume and favorable truck and SUV platform mix. And In Europe, the trend of strong double-digit market outgrowth continued as the production rebound benefited active safety and high voltage electrification programs. Lastly, our China growth was 9%, outpacing the market and expectations as a stronger recovery in sales led to production upside with our major customers, including high voltage launch volumes. Moving to the segments on the next slide. Advanced Safety and User Experience revenues increased 7% in the quarter, reflecting 6 points of growth over underlying vehicle production, including double-digit active safety growth in all three major regions. Segment EBITDA declined 1% excluding the impact of the Motional JV deconsolidation, primarily driven by the COVID and supply chain costs Kevin mentioned earlier. Signal and Power Solutions revenue were up 17%, reflecting 16 points of growth over market. We also saw strong growth across all product lines and regions, including demand for high voltage electrification products in Europe and China, favorable truck and SUV platform mix in North America and industrial end market recovery globally. EBITDA of the segment increased 17% as strong sales growth offset additional costs and FX and commodities in the quarter. Turning now to slide 12 and the 2021 macro outlook. As Kevin mentioned earlier, the worldwide shortage of semiconductors impacting the auto industry is limiting near-term production visibility. Based on our discussions with customers and suppliers, we expect the intermittent disruptions to continue during the first half of the year and assuming the industry should recover the majority of lost production units tied to these shortages during the second half of the year. Accordingly, we will not be providing guidance for the first quarter as there was a high likelihood of vehicle production shifting between the first and second quarters. However, we believe we have adequately reflected the current situation in our guidance for full year 2021 which estimates global vehicle production of 84 million units, up 10%. Looking at the regions. In North American and Europe, improved levels of demand should support stronger production rates, while a more modest recovery is planned for China, following a sharp bounce back in demand starting in the second quarter last year. While supply chain remains extremely tight, we are doing everything we can for our customers to meet increased levels of demand, and we are confident our leading industry position and technologies aligned to the safe, green and connected mega trends will continue to yield strong growth above market, consistent with the framework we have previously provided. Turning the slide 13. Despite the uncertainty that remains near term, we are confident in the guidance range for 2021. For the year, we expect revenue to be in the range of $15.1 billion to $15.7 billion, up 16% at the midpoint, with 6 points of growth over market, driven by our portfolio of relevant technologies. EBITDA and operating income are expected to be $2.4 billion and $1.6 billion at the midpoint respectively, with margins approaching 2019 levels. Despite $100 million of COVID related operating costs and given the volatility in customer schedules and supply chain disruptions, we are incurring additional manufacturing and logistics costs, which we have estimated at $80 million for the year. Lastly, benefits of our ongoing performance initiatives are more than offsetting the lapping of $150 million of austerity measures taken in 2020 during the pandemic related shutdowns. We expect earnings per share in the range of $3.35 and $3.85 a share or $4.20 to $4.70 per share when excluding the impact of the equity losses of our Motional joint venture. High year-over-year non-cash operating losses in the Motional JV reflect the finalization of purchase accounting, in addition to higher spending as Motional prepares to meet the commercial milestones Kevin highlighted earlier. Lastly, we expect operating cash flow of $1.85 billion. Turning to slide 14 and the segments, beginning with Advanced Safety and User Experience. We expect growth over market of 13 points, translating into approximately $4.4 billion of revenue in 2021, driven by new launches and continued strong active safety growth. EBITDA margins of approximately 13% reflect 5 points of expansion off 2020 depressed levels. Signal and Power Solutions revenues of approximately $11 billion reflect 4 points of growth over underlying vehicle production, with content accretive growth in high voltage electrification up 50% year-over-year. Our CV and industrial end markets are also expected to outgrow the industrial market. We expect EBITDA margins approaching 17%, up to 250 basis points year-over-year and reflect favorable volume growth, partially offset by the dilutive margin rate impact of higher copper prices. We thought it'd be helpful to walk revenue and EBITDA compared to 2019 levels on slide 15. Starting with revenue on the left, despite a 10% reduction in industry volumes, we expect 2021 revenues to be 7% higher than 2019 at the midpoint. The investments we've made to add scale in our fastest growing product lines, like active safety, high voltage electrification and engineered components, are generating sustained strong growth over market. And we expect a modest tailwind on FX and commodities, which combined more than offset our normal price downs. Moving to the right hand side of the slide and adjusted EBITDA, the benefits of our flexible and scalable cost structure are driving strong volume flow through on higher revenues and the benefits of our performance initiatives yielding EBITDA of $2.4 billion at the midpoint. As you can see, we are expected to recover to 2019 EBITDA margins in 2021 despite the ongoing operational impact of COVID and the supply chain disruptions. This is a true testament to our relentless focus on discipline and accretive revenue growth and cost structure optimization, creating an even more sustainable business with the ability to outperform in any environment. Turning cash flow on the next slide. Our sustainable business model is enabling us to convert more income to cash, generating higher operating cash flow and free cash flow conversion. As we approach a more normalized business environment, we expect operating cash flows of $1.85 billion in 2021, above 2019 levels, with free cash flow conversion greater than 100%. This assumes approximately $160 million of restructuring cash outflows and CapEx of $750 million, consistent with our targeted funding levels of 5% of sales. With cash flow growing strong double-digits, there is no shortage of attractive reinvestment opportunities. We will continue to maintain a consistent approach to capital deployment aligned to our strategic framework. Our M&A strategy remains focused on transactions that enhance our scalability, accelerate speed to market and also provide access to new addressable markets. We believe highly disciplined capital deployment is a major differentiator for Aptiv and an important lever for shareholder value generation. With that, I'd like to hand the call back to Kevin for his closing remarks.
Kevin Clark :
Thanks, Joe. I'll now wrap up on slide 17 before we open it up for Q&A. As we navigate 2021 and the new challenges ahead, it goes without saying that we remain laser focused on delivering on our commitments and continuing our track record of outperformance, while advancing our vision of the company in 2025 and beyond. This vision is the extension of our business strategy, which is enabled by our industry leading competitive position and execution capabilities. Delivering our vision results in a more sustainable business defined by an improved and more predictable growth profile, increased profitability through global scale and accretive growth opportunities on the path to electrified smart vehicle architecture, the accelerated compounding of earnings and cash flow generation, and additional value creation upside from the disciplined deployment of that cash. We're well positioned to continue moving forward a company with a strong financial position, low cost of capital, and the flexibility to reinvest in its people, processes and portfolio to create significant value for its customers, for its employees and for its shareholders. So, with that, we'll open up the line for Q&A.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions]. We'll now move to our first question over the phone, which comes from Adam Jonas from Morgan Stanley.
Adam Jonas:
Look, I never congratulate people on good quarters. And I'm not going to do that here. Because we all know good companies are not made on good quarters. They're made on good strategy. What we're seeing here is really, I think, a great strategy coming together. So, just had to say that. Just in the outset, it really must be said. And more to come. But two questions. First on Motional. My first thought is, if this thing really works, Motional, the Motional JV stake, maybe just your share of it could be worth more than all of Aptiv. Now there's an arms race going on as these autonomous players, Waymo, Cruise, et cetera, kind of get close to deployment and even by your own growth and losses, it looks like you're keeping up with that. So, what's the plan to add capital or to access capital for that unit? And could we see 2021 be a year where we see greater visibility in tapping different sources of capital? That's my first question. And my follow-up is more specific on FPCB or the flexible printed circuit board technology, which I'm sure you're very familiar with. So, maybe this is one for Glen. But we're starting to get questions about the role of this technology to really dramatically simplify electrical architecture. We understand Tesla wants to use it too, but it's not really in production yet. There's issues. It's just not ready for primetime. So, would love your color on – is this a kind of – where's Aptiv on that development path? And when could you see that type of technology coming into production? Thanks.
Kevin Clark:
Those are two great questions. On Motional, listen, we've made tremendous progress over the last couple of years, significant progress last year with our partner, Hyundai. As I went through a list of announcements that were made during 2020, you'll see more announcements made as it relates to 2021 from a technology standpoint and from a commercial standpoint, Adam. The business is on track from a resource standpoint. There's been a significant investment in resources in and around technology, in and around areas that are accelerating the underlying technology. As you know, we have vehicles on the road today. We finished or completed our gen one platform, which you'll see out on the road in Las Vegas soon. And we'll have our gen two platform available for sale to customers commercially beginning in 2022. So, a tremendous amount of progress. As it relates to capital, recall the transaction, HMG contributed $1.4 billion of cash back in March of 2020. We're using that cash to make the investments that we've talked about. Both of us as partners are focused on how do we develop the technology and how do we maximize value, so we're completely aligned on value creation and value creation within that business, if you know what I mean. So, focused on how do we drive value through Motional. To the extent we see opportunities where our view on value the business aligns with one's willingness to contribute capital, that's something that we as partners will evaluate. And it's something that we'll continue to monitor. But at this point in time, we feel like, at this point in time, we have more than enough capital for the foreseeable future to continue to accelerate our investment. But it's something, again, that we continue to watch, and we watch closely. So, I would not refer to capital as a constraint. On the flexible printed circuit boards, as you know, we've been very focused on vehicle architecture for the last several years, and how do we develop solutions for customers that reduce the constraints associated with traditional vehicle architecture. So, how do we remove copper content? How do we replace that with real value-added content, like the flexible printed circuit board technology that you're talking about, which, overall, is a part of our SVA solution. So, that's technology that actually is under development. It's actually technology that we're in discussions with multiple OEMs about. And as you know, we have relationships with several of the leading OEMs, even those who I would say are less traditional OEMs, who've been evolving vehicle architecture and have been most aggressive as it relates to changing the vehicle architecture, so that we can separate software from hardware. And there's going to be more to come there. We feel like we're a leader, given our position with the brain and nervous system. We feel like there's a number of opportunities for us. As I've mentioned, we've been in discussions and development programs with a number of OEMs. And we'll keep you and others updated on our progress.
Operator:
We'll now move to our next question over the phone, which comes from Joseph Spak from RBC capital markets.
Joseph Spak:
Maybe to start first question just on free cash flow, which was really strong this quarter, and the guidance, 1.1. Impressive, especially it still has $160 million restructuring in there. I'm not sure if you consider that an elevated level or more in going. I'd be curious to know your thoughts there. But you mentioned the conversion over 100%. Even if you back out the Motional loss, it's still like around 90%. So, is that the right new level of conversion that this company can start converting on it going forward?
Joseph Massaro:
That has been a target for a while. We've talked about moving sort of – even if you go back to the Capital Market Day in 2017 and 2019 about a steady march up to the 90%. And that's where we believe we are. You're right. The Motional math gives us a bit of a boost there as well. But, yeah, I think that's the right range.
Joseph Spak:
Kevin, just because this is a question we've been getting increasingly as there's a lot of headlines flying around, and we're seeing different automakers take different software strategies. Volkswagen trying to move some of it in house. You have others partnering, like you saw the Ford and Google announcement – I believe that was this week. How do you view the role of a supplier like Aptiv? I know you ship a lot of software to the OEMs. But to date, there are really more takers and sort of integration of software all over the place. You mentioned a number of times the change in electrical architecture and everyone's moving to more software enabled platform. So, it seems like there's an opportunity for a player like Aptiv, but you'd have to get involved even earlier in the work and work more closely with the OEMs, so there's a role for you. Is that a correct assessment? And maybe you could just update us on what Aptiv is doing and the strategy there.
Kevin Clark:
It's a great question. And I think the point you make is right. So, I think given where we play, given where the industry is going, having a much more strategic relationship with the OEM customer is a must, right? What we deal with, where we operate, it's a cross section that's highly complex. And that's actually where we play. So, we have the benefit of our legacy kind of nervous system vehicle architecture, combined with our newer capabilities in and around software that, to your point, started in areas like infotainment, user experience, and active safety. All of those are coming together and merging and what we've been talking about in terms of smart vehicle architecture, all of them. And given our capabilities in both areas, we've been positioned to have strategic discussions and, quite frankly, strategic development programs with several of the leading global OEMs. And I would say, even strategic programs that we're on today, whether it's our gen one ADAS solutions or our gen one integrated cockpit solutions that ultimately lead to – that lead to the SVA solution. Clearly, there's an acceleration in the separation of software and hardware. It's happening as we speak. It presents a huge opportunity for us. We talked about our gen two ADAS platform where we can provide the full stack solution, but also provide OEM customers who want the ability to do more of the software on their own. The ability to do so, for those who don't have the capabilities, we can provide the full solution. And we do that today. And there will be a universe of OEM customers who want to do more, and we're going to enable that and provide both hardware, software and integration services in those sort of scenarios. There's going to be other OEM customers who really don't have that capability, aren't interested in investing in it and will do more of a full stack solution. And from our perspective, what's important is really to serve both, so that we have that revenue opportunity and make sure that we're the driver of change versus reacting to the change. So, that's why we made the comments in our prepared remarks about continuing to invest during 2020, which was a challenging year. We'll continue to invest during 2021 and beyond on all the solutions that we're developing, the platforming of our various technologies, and cannibalizing some of our traditional product lines and replacing them with higher tech solutions that take out mass, that take out weight, that provide OEM customers with more flexibility and really enable the technology that's going into the car. So, it's a long winded answer, but I hope I've addressed it.
Operator:
We'll now move on to our next question over the phone, which comes from Chris McNally from Evercore.
Chris McNally:
One long-term question and one active safety question. So, if we take the top end of your margin guidance at 10.7% and we actually looked at some of the inefficiencies you spoke about, roughly $180 million expected in 2021. When we add that back, we get almost that 12% bar that we've been talking about for some time, looking out. And that's still a couple of billion before we're back to the 90 million pre COVID production. Yeah, I think that's pretty exciting to think about the underlying progress here on margins as we've been waiting for ASUE to come up for some years. Could you talk about sort of the margin progression and when you may actually formalize some of the old margin targets and we get new ones because it looks like you're about to go into a strong period where you hit those margin targets we've been speaking about for some years?
Joseph Massaro:
I think you framed it correctly, your thinking about it. We've obviously spent a lot of effort over the last couple years on the cost structure of the business, taking out overhead. I know as we talked about last year, we didn't have any sort of big moment where we said, aha, because of COVID, we can change things. We felt that the business had been structured pretty well, and would continue to take advantage from a margin perspective as those product lines grew into their own and started to add increased volume. And I think you're right. If you take out what are a fair amount of investment around COVID and now the supply chain costs, and assume eventually we work out of those over the coming couple of years and we continue to see the strong accretive product line growth in things like active safety, high voltage and engineered components, I think we're on that trajectory. As far as a longer-term update, that'll come in our next Capital Markets Day, which we plan on for 2022. But I do think your trajectory and the way you're thinking about it is correct.
Chris McNally:
I guess the related question is in active safety, right? $4 billion of sort of on average now. You had a strong year even despite COVID. We're seeing a lot more emphasis on level two plus where you have a sort of a higher market share. So, there's a lot of momentum there clearly. Like 18 months ago, you mentioned that you need to have a step up in spend to keep up with the order pace and the bid pace. Can you just give us an update? Will we maybe need to see a second step up if we start to hit $4 billion or $5 billion in orders? Or can we start to see some of the scalability because, again, that's really important for driving ASUE margins?
Kevin Clark:
Our real focus, Chris, as it relates to our next generation ADAS solution is leveraging the software that's been developed to date, driving reuse of that software, and really driving platforms within the ADAS business. And that's really across the various ASUX product lines, right, on the journey to ultimately an SVA solution. So, it's really about how do we drive more leverage. Listen, I don't think we foresee any real incremental step up, like we talked about previously, that $90 million, which was really about how do we drive additional pursuit opportunities, how do we better position ourselves as it relates to SVA, both from a hardware and software standpoint, and now it's taking advantage of that investment opportunity to drive more scale and widening our competitive moat. Now, there may be, within quarters, periods where we decide we're going to invest a bit more, given the competitive dynamic, or to drive technology advancement. But by and large, given we've introduced gen one, we're rolling out or launching on several vehicle programs now as we speak, and we're heading into gen two. You should start to see a fair amount of scale come through.
Operator:
We'll now move to our next question, which comes from Mark Delaney from Goldman Sachs.
Mark Delaney:
I was hoping to start on the Advanced Safety business and what the company is seeing around level two, level two plus and level three. You're guiding for some really nice growth over market in that segment this year. But as we start thinking out to the 2022, 2023 type of timeframe, there's been an increased number of announcements of deployments of those sorts of ADAS type of capabilities. So, if you could talk a little bit more on what Aptiv is seeing out over the intermediate term for Advanced Safety and what opportunities there could be to maybe sustain this kind of nice growth over market that you're seeing in Advanced Safety?
Kevin Clark:
Yeah, I'll start with a qualitative and then Joe can walk you through all the growth rates. Our booking activity has remained strong. It was very strong last year in what was a very choppy environment given COVID. Bookings were close to $4 billion. Advanced Safety for our OEM customers is a solution that sells. So, the focus on driving advanced safety solutions from our customers is significant, solutions that reduce the on costs, but provide the sort of performance that consumers are looking for is in significant demand. So, it will continue to be a huge growth opportunity for us for the foreseeable future. Joe, you should walk through all the numbers.
Joseph Massaro:
It's very consistent with what we're talking about. This is a strong double-digit grower. We expect to be a little shy of $2 billion by the end of 2021 in Active Safety revenue. But continue to see that business growing at or above 20% from a CAGR perspective over the next three years. And when you get to that 2022/2023 timeframe, we expect to be the largest from an industry perspective, we'll have active safety content over 20 different OEs – different platforms on 20 OEs. That strong sort of 20 plus percent CAGR we've talked about continues to be in place. We obviously feel very good about it. There's a little bit of a law of larger numbers, obviously, with the growth rate as the business continues to grow, but a very strong compounding growth rate over the next number of years.
Mark Delaney:
My second question was on Motional and how to think about this level of equity losses, around $240 million for 2021? Should we think about that as a run rate or maybe even increasing in terms of the degree of losses as you're trying to bring your technology to market? And then, as these programs start to ramp in the 2021 to 2023 timeframe, as you are articulating in your prepared remarks, is that going to be enough to get these losses to start to decline? Or is that really further out in time before we should think about equity losses in mitigating that for Motional? Thanks.
Kevin Clark:
The real focus now – and Joe can walk through the numbers. The real focus now is advancing and accelerating technology adoption, right? So, that's where our real focus is. We've completed the gen one platform. You'll see that on the roads. Gen two for 2022, for sale to customers in 2022, on the road with Lyft in 2023. So, that's where our real focus is. Now, we have more than enough capital to meet our timetable and meet the tech roadmap that the team has mapped out. To the extent we need capital, we view that as something to the extent we need capital and it reflects the value of the business. That's something with our partner, we'll entertain. Joe, do you want to add to my…?
Joseph Massaro:
Just real quick. About half of the increase from prior expectations is just the finalization of the purchase accounting. So, that's effectively non-cash, obviously, coming through the P&L. So, the remaining half is the step up in investment. And to Kevin's point, we'll see that increase over the next couple of years, but it's still well within the plan and the original funding when we formed the JV back at the beginning of last year. So, we had four to five years of funding in the JV and that continues to be the case.
Operator:
We'll now move on to our next question over the phone, which comes from Emmanuel Rosner from Deutsche Bank.
Emmanuel Rosner:
I wanted to ask you about high voltage electrification bookings. We're seeing all these announcements from automakers that seem to signal massive acceleration towards electrification, some pretty bullish volume targets by 2025. Some 100% EV by 2035 from GM. I was curious, should we expect to see inflection higher into your read of booking? It seems to be trending around 2 billion a year in electrification. And then related to that, I think last quarter, you were talking about this fairly high win rate that you have in high voltage bookings, 70% or so. Just wanted to see if there's something that you have seen or expect to see something there?
Kevin Clark:
From a win rate standpoint, our win rate continues to be north of 70%. I would say we have – to reiterate, we've talked about it previously, a very focused strategy as it relates to high voltage electrification. So, we're very focused on a select group of OEMs, who have a strategy that brings high voltage electrification across multiple platforms, so we get the benefit of – we get the benefit, they get benefit of significant volume. A year or two ago, we were basically evaluating 15 programs on an annual basis. This year, we'll be evaluating north of 40 programs. So, bookings activity and dollar value of bookings will certainly kick up in 2021 and beyond. It's important to note, the reason we're so successful is we are the only competitor, only player out there that has the ability to bring the vehicle architecture, the connector component, the cable management component, the electrical center component and the wire harness component together and provide a fully optimized solution to an OEM that takes out mass, that takes out weight, a significant amount of mass reduction. Adam asked that question earlier with respect to flexible printed circuit board technology, but reducing mass by close to 40%, which takes out cost and gives the OEM space. And the value of what we deliver, the packaging of that full systems is translated into significant win rates, and a huge opportunity for Aptiv. Joe can walk through the numbers, but high voltage electrification will be our fastest growing product line for several years to come.
Joseph Massaro:
We're expecting just based on the bookings and increased activity, your point, we had talked about that business growing at 40% through 2020. We expect it now to be growing over 50% in 2021. And that's obviously on a larger number. We'll certainly be above a $1 billion in revenue in 2022. Our original target was to sort of get two or get close to a $1 billion in 2022. So, we'll now be above that. And continue to have sort of that same profit profile, continues to trend above segment margins. And it's accretive to the SPS segment. So, I would say both within the bookings and the revenue trajectory, the trends you're talking about from an OE perspective about greater levels of levels of electrification, we're seeing in the numbers as well.
Emmanuel Rosner:
Just one point of clarification on your overall outlook for growth of the market this year of 6 points. I think back in the third quarter, when you were sort of giving sort of an initial view into 2021, I think you were thinking 6 to 8 points or so. Can you maybe just give us a finer point around what has changed? Is it just the uncertainty of the environment and to what extent it would impact the growth over market versus the [indiscernible].
Joseph Massaro:
We remain very confident, Emmanuel, on this, in the long term 6% to 8% growth over market framework. I don't think anything has sort of strategically changed there at all. We are at the lower end. As you can imagine, the chip constraints, obviously, affect the tech-enabled products. So, we are at the lower end of the range as we go into the year, but long term, we still have a high degree of confidence in that 6% to 8%. And as we've talked about a lot, that number doesn't shoot perfectly straight every quarter, but very confident within that range. And I wouldn't say anything material has changed from that perspective.
Operator:
We'll now move to our next question over the phone, which comes from Dan Levy from Credit Suisse.
Dan Levy:
A couple of questions. One on out-growth and another on Motional. First, on out-growth. And I know you mentioned Investor Day probably next year, but we did see your bookings accelerate in fourth quarter. Presumably, there's more opportunity into 2021 as you get some of this post COVID [indiscernible]. And we haven't really been seeing anything related to SVA. But at the same time, it's harder to maintain growth as products mature. So, maybe you can give us a sense of what the bookings say about your ability to meet that 6 to 8 points of outgrowth beyond the 2022 timeframe that you've talked about. So, how do you think about the bookings and 6 to 8 points beyond that 2022 timeframe?
Kevin Clark:
As Joe said, last year, and then the first part of this year, given the semiconductor challenges or supply shortages, creates a bit of a choppy environment and limits the amount of near-term visibility. However, everything that we see going through COVID in dealing with these challenges really underscores our view that you're going to see an acceleration of technology adoption, right? Whether that's high voltage electrification, whether that's ADAS solutions, or connectivity that consumers want those products. They want more of them. So, it gives us a high level of confidence beyond 2022 in the 6 to 8 points of growth over market. And that's what's reflected in our bookings. And quite frankly, that's what's reflected in our long term outlook from a revenue standpoint. So, management team is very confident in that level of outgrowth. Joe?
Joseph Massaro:
Yeah, I agree completely with that. And Dan, as you know, we watched the sort of the longer term CAGR bookings growth carefully over time because that ultimately is what drives the outgrowth. And when you look at the key growth areas around active safety, high voltage, engineered components, the connectors element type business, those bookings have remained exactly at or above where we need to be at that 6% to 8%. So, we've got, again, a very high level of confidence in that outgrowth range.
Dan Levy:
The SVA, when would we see that showing up in bookings?
Kevin Clark:
Remember, Dan, SVA is an evolving solution, right? So, it's effectively – and we've talked about it previously. It started with the consolidation of compute – with domain controllers, integrated cockpit controllers, items like that. It's now evolving or continuing to evolve to zone controllers. We've already booked a program with a major global, European – European-based global OEM. We have a number of potential program wins in front of us during 2021. So, more to come on that. The program that we were awarded previously will launch on a vehicle in 2022. And then, there's a lot of activity that our SVA team has focused on our PDC solution where we separate hardware from software. So, I think over the next 12 to 24 months, you should get more visibility to the commercial wins, the commercial opportunities and the progression of revenue.
Dan Levy:
Maybe a follow-up just on Motional. Maybe you could walk us through the key steps or milestones ahead between now and 2023 that we should watch out for between now and commercialization. And then, just broadly on commercialization, I believe that the goal in the past was to really be a systems provider to others, rather than – who want to operate their own fleet, rather than you running the fleet. So, maybe you can just give us a sense of where the business focus is now because it seems like, yes, it's on the Lyft network, but it sounds like you are now running your fleet.
Kevin Clark:
Yeah. No, the overall strategy hasn't changed. It's really about providing the full systems and software stack for OEMs or fleet providers to put in place on their vehicles. So, that strategy has not changed. To the extent that we're partnering and operating rideshare networks, we get the benefit of validating the technology in real world situations and better understanding, ultimately, the customers who operate those networks or our ride sharing providers. So, we have a great partnership with Lyft. There's a lot of sharing of information as it relates to technology, as it relates to consumer experience, as it relates to fleet management solutions. So, it allows them to be better and us to be better. And we'll continue to do that. So, it's almost – it's validation of the underlying technology. The key milestones over the next couple of years are the gen one out on the road, doing real world testing, which you'll see – which will happen very, very shortly. Gen two out on the road or available for customers in 2022. So, we're a little over a year away on that. The team is making significant progress on that vehicle. It's an HMG battery electric vehicle platform. And then, during calendar 2021, more commercial announcements related to partnerships, whether it be the purchase of the underlying technology or plugging that technology into other networks.
Joseph Massaro:
I was just going to say we'd also – we've announced one – Kevin, to your comments on the prepared remarks, we'd expect Via to be launching this year as well in a city to be determined.
Operator:
Due to time, ladies and gentlemen, we don't have time for any further questions. I'll now hand the call back over to Mr. Kevin Clark for closing comments.
Kevin Clark:
Okay. Well, thank you, everyone. We appreciate you joining our call. We appreciate your support of Aptiv. Have a good day and a good rest of the week. Stay safe.
Joseph Massaro:
Thank you.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude today's call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Good day and welcome to the Aptiv Third Quarter 2020 Earnings Conference Call. My name is Tracy, and I’ll be your conference operator today. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speakers’ remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session. Thank you. Elena Rosman, Aptiv’s Vice President of Investor Relations, you may begin your conference.
Elena Rosman:
Thank you, Tracy. Good morning and thank you to everyone for joining Aptiv’s third quarter 2020 earnings conference call. To follow along with today’s presentation, our slides can be found at ir.aptiv.com. Today’s review of our actual financials excludes restructuring and other special items and will address the continuing operations of Aptiv. The reconciliation between GAAP and non-GAAP measures for our third quarter financials are included at the back of today’s presentation and the earnings press release. Turning to the next slide, you can see here a disclosure on forward-looking statements, which reflect Aptiv’s current view of future financial performance, which may be materially different from our actual performance for reasons that we cite in our Form 10-K and other SEC filings, including uncertainties posed by the COVID-19 pandemic and the difficulty in predicting its future course and impact on the global economy. Joining us today will be Kevin Clark, Aptiv’s President and CEO; and Joe Massaro, CFO and Senior Vice President of Business Operations. Kevin will provide a strategic update on the business, and then Joe will cover the financials results and outlook for the remainder of the year in more detail. With that, I would like to turn the call over to Kevin Clark.
Kevin Clark:
Thanks, Elena. Good morning, everyone. Beginning on Slide 3, our strong third quarter results reflect our culture of continuous improvement, which has created a more sustainable business that thrives in any environment. Our portfolio of safe, green and connected technologies has translated into year-to-date revenue growth, which is 10 points over underlying vehicle production. And our optimized cost structure is a competitive advantage, positioning us to withstand the 50% plus reduction in this year's second quarter volumes and remain EBITDA breakeven. Our culture of flawless execution has allowed us to ramp up production to meet the rapid rebound of customer schedules, while managing through the challenges related to labor availability and a tightening of the global supply chain with zero customer disruptions in a quarter that we experienced a 60% sequential increase in vehicle production. The proactive portfolio and cost structure actions we’ve taken over the last few years to strengthen our business model have positioned Aptiv to outperform in any environment with more sustainable earnings and cash flows, a disciplined improvement approach to value creation and the flexibility to accretively deploy capital. I'm proud of how our team has performed during this challenging year. And I'm grateful for their commitment to our culture that drives continuous improvement, ensuring Aptiv can outperform in any environment. Moving to Slide 4. The strong rebound in vehicle production combined with solid operating execution contributed to strong financial results in the third quarter. Revenues increased 3% to $3.7 billion, representing 7 points of growth over vehicle production. EBITDA and operating income totaled $581 million and $389 million, respectively, and adjusted earnings per share reached $1.13. Looking at each region. Government fiscal policies and improved business conditions, boosted vehicle production a 11% in China and OEMs in North America and Europe are aggressively restocking vehicle inventories, resulting in the strong ramp up in vehicle production, which translated into a year-over-year decline of only 1% and 8%, respectively during the quarter. The increase in COVID-19 cases during the quarter, especially in Mexico and Eastern Europe created supply chain disruptions, principally related to Tier 2 and Tier 3 electronics and component manufacturers, which resulted in a volatile customer schedules leading to some operational headwinds. We're closely monitoring the more recent spike in COVID-19 cases in both Europe and North America and the potential impact on the global supply chain and customer schedules, but it's not reflected incremental disruptions in our outlook for the fourth quarter and 2021 global vehicle production. Joe will cover our fourth quarter and full year guidance in more detail shortly. As shown on Slide 5, third quarter new business bookings totaled $4.6 billion, representing a more normalized run rate for new business awards. Year-to-date bookings reached $10.5 billion benefiting from a meaningful increase in new business win rates, partially offset by the day-to-day operating challenges related to COVID-19. Advanced Safety & User experience segment new business bookings totaled just over $2 billion year-to-date as a handful of customer awards initially planned for this year has been pushed to 2021. And new business bookings for our Signal & Power solutions segment totaled more than $8 billion year-to-date, including $1 billion of high voltage electrification awards driven by the increased demand for electrified vehicle platforms. For the full-year, we now expect new business bookings in the range of $16 billion to $17 billion, roughly flat to 2019 levels when adjusted for our current outlook for lower global vehicle production. The cumulative amount of our new business bookings over the last few years gives us tremendous confidence in our ability to sustain strong above market growth across both of our business segments, validating the strength of our portfolio of market evolving technologies, aligned to the safe, green and connected megatrends. Looking at our business segments in more detail, beginning on Slide 6, with Advanced Safety & User experience. As a need for more complex software, hardware and systems integration expertise increases, our unique ability to offer highly functional, scalable and optimized solutions across the active safety and user experience domains has driven continued strong revenue growth over market. Despite the decline in vehicle production over the last few years and our increasing capabilities in software development and data analytics, positions us well for future high growth, high margin opportunities in new markets. These industry trends and our unique capabilities underpin our outlook for 8 points of growth over market in our Advanced Safety & User experience segment this year reaching roughly $3.5 billion of revenues. Turning to Slide 7. Our OEM customers continue to launch advanced safety solutions across our vehicle platforms and democratize these features across our vehicle lineups to meet increasing consumer demand. While at the same time, Europe and China NCAP standards are accelerating the adoption of advanced safety solutions. Several OEMs have decided to make automated -- automatic emergency braking as well as other ADAS features standard equipment in U.S by 2022, all of which translates with significant demand from OEMs for Level 2 and 2 plus ADAS solutions, exceeding the next big wave of market penetration, even as the industry experiences lower vehicle production volumes due to COVID-19. Our unique first in industry approach to compute centralization and scalable satellite architecture, has strengthened our competitive position and sustained our strong revenue growth and is validated by the fact that we now provide OEM customers with more than 6 million radars annually compared to only 1 million just 5 years ago. And our satellite architecture solution will be deployed across 10 million vehicles over the next 5 years. As such, we're confident that we will continue to grow our active safety revenues at a compounded rate of 25% per year over the next few years, reaching over $2 billion by 2022. Importantly, our Gen 2 ADAS platform will further increase our competitive mode with the deployment of next generation perception systems and a higher level software abstraction that will deliver even more consumer value, while enabling new business models for Aptiv and reduce investment for our OEM customers. Turning to our Signal & Power Solutions segment on Slide 8. We're leveraging our industry leading position in vehicle architecture to become the partner of choice for both our traditional and new emerging OEM customers. By integrating our broad portfolio of low and high voltage solutions, including the conductor, connectors, electrical centers and cable management systems, we're able to reduce the weight and physical size of the electrical distribution system by up to 40%, thereby reducing costs for OEM customers. We are also leveraging our expertise in a harsh environment electronics to penetrate adjacent markets, such as the commercial vehicle, data [indiscernible] and industrial sectors. Our momentum in our Signal & Power Solutions segment gives us confidence in delivering revenue growth of 9 points over vehicle production this year reaching $9 billion of revenues. Moving to Slide 9. We continue to see an acceleration of powertrain electrification driven by both more stringent CO2 regulations, principally in Europe and China and increasing consumer demand globally. Our complimentary high-voltage distribution and connection systems, as well as cable management solutions, leverage our low voltage core competencies. That includes vehicle architecture optimization, system level of expertise and global manufacturing and supply chain management to enable the acceleration of powertrain electrification by significantly reducing the weight and mass of the vehicle architecture through smarter more efficient design, perfectly position Aptiv to benefit from the two-fold increase in addressable content at a high voltage electric vehicle. Our unique holistic approach to designing, developing, and manufacturing system level solutions for electrified vehicles make Aptiv the partner of choice for OEM customers, and has contributed to continued strong new business awards with both traditional high volume OEMs where we've recently been awarded new business on a series of conquest pursuits, including with a leading major European OEM for innovative, long range electrical vehicles that will begin launching in 2022. It was non-traditional battery electric vehicles focused OEM customers, where we increase our share of wallet with an industry leader who's been expanding both their vehicle offering and their global reach. As a result, high voltage electrification continues to be our fastest growing product line with revenues increasing at a 40% compounded rate for the next few years, reaching roughly $1 billion by 2022. Turning to Slide 10. Never the Aptiv's mission of enabling a safer, greener and more connected world had more meaning than it does today. The COVID-19 pandemic has led to a much broader perspective and how the global community view safety both inside and outside of the vehicle. We've all become more sensitive to our environment and have had a glimpse of a greener world with your cars on the road and planes in the sky. And every day, we're all reminded of just how connected the world is and how much more it could be as more of us work remotely. We are proud of the progress we've made this year on our enterprise wide commitment to corporate social responsibility, which can be explored in our 2020 sustainability report that was published in September and includes our sustainability framework, new 2025 commitments for each of our foundational pillars, which include people, product, platform, and newly adopted GRI and SASB reporting standards, which supplement our adherence to the United Nations sustainable development goals. Our ability to meet these commitments on sustainability is built on a cultural foundation of always doing the right thing the right way. We believe that our long-term success and ability to create value for all our stakeholders are directly linked to building a more sustainable business and a directly related positive impact we have on our people, our portfolio, and our planet. I'll now hand it over to Joe Massaro for an overview of our financial results.
Joe Massaro:
Thanks, Kevin, and good morning, everyone. After challenging second quarter, global automotive manufacturing has continued its recovery in the third quarter against the backdrop of improving customer schedules and increasing launch activity, resulting in the strong financial results shown on Slide 11. Revenues of $3.7 billion were up 3% over last year as vehicle production declined 4%. Due to the benefits of our flexible operating model, adjusted EBITDA was $581 million roughly flat compared to the prior year, reflecting robust sequential improvement in production volumes, strong cost management and cost reduction activities partially offset by the ongoing operating costs associated with COVID. In light of the stronger recovery, a need to ramp capacity quickly in the third quarter, we concluded our short-term austerity measures implemented earlier in the year, resulting in less than $5 million of benefit in Q3. Earnings per share in the quarter were $1.13 and reflected lower operating income, promotional JV results and increased share count as a result of the June equity issuance partially offset by favorable tax expense. Operating cash flow was strong at $559 million, reflecting working capital management and cash conservation efforts partially offset by higher cash restructuring costs. Lastly, capital expenditures were $117 million, reflecting a year-over-year decrease of roughly $50 million. Looking at the third quarter revenue in more detail on Slide 12. Globally, we benefited from both stronger vehicle production, as well as increased demand for active safety systems and electrical architecture. North American revenues declined 3% primarily due to year-over-year program launch timing. We continue to see demand for core SUV and truck platforms and expect to return to strong growth and growth over market in the fourth quarter. In Europe, the trend of strong double-digit market outgrowth continued as the production rebound benefited from active safety and high voltage electrification programs. And lastly, China growth outpaced the market and our expectations as a sharper recovery in sales led to production upside with our major customers. Moving to the segments on the next slide. Advanced Safety & User Experience revenues increased 3% in the quarter, reflecting 7 points of growth over market with all product lines contributing. AS and UX EBITDA declined 24% driven by the cost associated with new launches and the inefficiencies associated with lower vehicle production volumes, as well as price declines in the quarter. As a reminder, for compatibility purposes the automated driving spend that is now part of Motional, the Aptiv Hyundai joint venture is excluded from the prior year results. Turning to Signal & Power Solutions. Revenues were up 2%, reflecting 6 points of growth over market. Strong growth across the segment, particularly in Europe and China was driven by new launches, increased electrification and industrial end market recovery. EBITDA in the segment declined 2%, which included the additional COVID operating costs as well as costs associated with launches and production ramp. Turning to the next slide and the outlook for the rest of the year. Looking at the fourth quarter specifically, we expect continued variability in customer schedules and operational inefficiencies related to volume absorption similar to what we saw in the third quarter. This is reflected in our outlook for vehicle production in the fourth quarter of down approximately 3% year-over-year, and does not assume any meaningful extended COVID related disruptions or shut downs. North America and Europe are both expected to be down low to mid single digits as inventory rebuilds and improved levels of demand support current production rates. And in China, we expect the pace of underlying demand to continue with modest production growth in the quarter. As a result, we now expect 2020 global vehicle production to be around 76 million units. But despite improved visibility and customer schedules, the threat of plant closures and potential customer supply chain disruptions remain. Turning to Slide 15. Based on these improved customer schedules, we are reintroducing and providing guidance for the full year and fourth quarter. Starting with the fourth quarter on the left, we expect revenues up 3% on an adjusted basis at the midpoint, similar to what we saw in the third quarter. EBITDA in the range of $575 million to $625 million, reflecting a 16% EBITDA margin at the midpoint. Operating income of $385 million to $435 million is expected to yield a 10.9% operating margin at the midpoint and EPS in the range of $0.85 to $1. Moving to the full year, that translates into revenues in the range of $12.5 billion to $12.7 billion, down approximately 11%, reflecting the shutdowns in the first half and 9 points of growth over market with equally strong contributions from both segments. EBITDA in the range of $1.52 billion to $1.57 billion, reflecting a 12.2% EBITDA margin rate at the midpoint. This includes over $100 million in COVID related operating costs and approximately $150 million in austerity saving measures, which helped to mitigate the impact of lower first half volumes. Operating income in the range of $775 million to $825 million and EPS is expected to be $1.65 to $1.80, reflecting a 10% to 11% effective tax rate for the full-year. Operating cash flow is now expected to be almost $1.1 billion and includes approximately $200 million of restructuring cash as we continue to rationalize our fixed costs in light of the lower production environment. And CapEx is $600 million consistent with our post-COVID revised estimate for the year. Turning to the next slide. Looking ahead to 2021, our sustained focus on shareholder value ensures we continue to execute our long-term strategy consistent with the financial framework we have previously communicated despite the very challenging first half and lower production environment overall, we have demonstrated our ability to deliver on this framework. Our industry leading growth portfolio has sustained strong above market growth. While the work we have done in the last several years to optimize our cost structure and improve efficiency has positioned us to mitigate the effects of lower industry volumes and grow earnings going forward, while effectively deploying capital and enabling further growth in the recovery. While it's still early in the planning process for 2021, we are confident in our ability to outgrow the market, which as of today we assume the market will be up approximately 10% in 2021 taking global vehicle production to 83 million to 84 million units. To put this into perspective, this is roughly 10 million units less than what we saw in 2019 and reflects an 8-year low at levels last seen in 2012. However, the long-term secular growth drivers remain intact, which once again, contribute to growth over market in the range of 6% to 8%. As a result, we would expect to return to double-digit operating margins in the range of 10% to 11% driven by higher volumes year-over-year and the assumed absence of COVID related shutdowns, and our relentless focus on optimizing our cost structure to adjust to lower industry volumes, while balancing our overall capacity utilization as the recovery unfolds. In addition, we will continue to effectively deploy capital with the focus on value enhancing M&A and investments to add scale and leverage to key product lines and further position the company for accelerated growth and margin expansion. The consistent execution of our strategy is a major differentiator for Aptiv and an important lever for shareholder value generation going forward. We will give our official 2021 guidance when we report fourth quarter 2020 results. With that, I'd like to hand the call back to Kevin for his closing remarks.
Kevin Clark:
Thanks, Joe. I'll now wrap up on Slide 17 before opening it up for Q&A. Despite the challenges we faced in 2020, we remain laser focused on further enhancing our track record of our performance in long-term value creation as we execute our strategy and deliver on our vision of the company, leveraging our unique position at the intersection of the safe, green and connected megatrends that are transforming our industry. The sequential strong increase in third quarter revenue, earnings and cash flow reflects the flexibility of our business model and the execution capabilities of our team. As we look ahead, our ongoing efforts to provide technology solutions that solve our customer's toughest challenges, improve our revenue diversification to have a more predictable revenue growth profile, further optimize our cost structure to increase the flexibility of our business model, expand our profit margins to generate more earnings, which can be efficiently converted into increased cash flow and maintain a strong balance sheet and smartly deploy capital, creates a more sustainable business and delivers meaningful shareholder returns as the recovery continues to unfold. Our confidence is underpinned by the dedication and commitment of our employees, our greatest asset. I'm grateful we have an organization that is focused on flawlessly serving our customers while creating value for all of our stakeholders. With that, let's open up the line for Q&A.
Elena Rosman:
Thanks, Kevin. Tracy, we will now take our first question.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] We will now take our first question from Rod Lache from Wolfe Research. Please go ahead.
Rod Lache:
Good morning, everybody.
Kevin Clark:
Good morning, Rod.
Rod Lache:
Thanks for that commentary on directionally the 2021 margins that is really helpful. I had a couple of questions on that. In the past at least in active safety, you've made the judgment that it made sense that to add a bit more R&D spending in the short run, because there was a payback in the longer term. I was wondering if you can give us some comments on how you see that progressing as you look out to next year? And do you see kind of a similar dynamic with the electric -- electrification pipeline growing? Does that require additional R&D spending in advance of the big ramp that you've seen in the years ahead?
Kevin Clark:
Yes. Rod, it's Kevin. So we feel as though, as we said, we continue to feel and actually feel even more strongly now that we have very, very strong competitive positions in areas like ADAS, in areas like smart vehicle architecture and even more recently increasingly on the high voltage electrification space. And those are areas that we're going to continue to invest in to further widen our competitive mode. Those investments are reflected in the outlook that Joe has given both for the fourth quarter as well as next year. We think if we continue to invest, we're uniquely positioned based on our capabilities, software perception systems, as well as connectors, cable management and wire harness capabilities on the vehicle architecture side to really one significantly accelerate revenue growth, and then to expand margins. So that's something that we will continue to do, but again, that incremental investment reflected in the outlook that Joe has provided.
Rod Lache:
Okay. So there is some incremental spending, but it's something that you're managing here with the growth that you've got?
Kevin Clark:
Yes. There's incremental spending, but I think it's balanced. I think it's relatively balanced and again, it's reflected in our outlook.
Rod Lache:
Okay. And just secondly, I noticed that pricing looked like it ticked up, just [indiscernible] above 2%, which is I think the upper bound of what we've seen in the past couple of years, correct me if that's incorrect. But any comment or color on what actually is driving that and how you’re thinking about that going forward?
Joe Massaro:
Yes, Rod. It's Joe. That's a fair observation. And I would attribute that to a little bit of just some of the lumpiness we saw in the commercial side of the business over the course of the last couple of quarters, just -- it's similar to bookings, just when things got signed, when deals got done. So not a long-term change to our view that we're right around 2%, but did run a little bit hotter in the quarter just as a bit of a backlog of agreements got completed.
Kevin Clark:
Yes, I think if you look, Joe, correct me, if I'm wrong, first half of the year pricing was significantly below our typical sort of pricing range. So I think we'd say, Rod, it's been more of just a normalization for the full year.
Joe Massaro:
Yes, that's correct.
Rod Lache:
Okay, great. Thank you.
Kevin Clark:
Thank you.
Operator:
We will now take our next question from Adam Jonas from Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.
Adam Jonas:
Hey, everybody. Just the first kind of …
Kevin Clark:
Hey, good morning.
Adam Jonas:
Good morning. Joe, just a quick one for you. The $150 million austerity measures as I'm thinking '20 to '21, how much of that you think is sustainable? I know a lot of companies made these very, very aggressive, nobody travels, cut everything discretionary and some of that, maybe isn't repeated. I didn't know if it gives some color on that delta as we run numbers of the $100 million COVID maybe, god-willing not repeated, how much of the austerity continues on the other side you follow?
Joe Massaro:
Yes. No, I got it, Adam. Thanks. Yes, listen, what we were able to do for the most part, the big pieces of austerity, the furloughs, the TLOs, obviously we brought those costs back in as we started to ramp, we really had to. Those were the vast majority of the sort of north of $100 million of that -- of those austerity measures. We do have things like travel and others, which you would expect at some point in 2021 to come back. But I would frame those types of costs more in that sort of $30 million to $40 million range. The other thing we're starting to see and Kevin's mentioned, I mentioned it, there are some inefficiencies, obviously just working with customer schedules, working with this environment in addition to the COVID costs. So we're working through those, but to Kevin's comment on engineering, those are -- our best estimates of those are in that margin outlook for Q4 and for next year. But at this point, I'd expect sort of the turn back on type costs in that $30 million to $40 million range.
Adam Jonas:
That’s very helpful.
Kevin Clark:
Adam, one thing -- I think just to underscore, I think it's important just to reiterate. Over the last couple of years, we've reduced overhead costs in this business by close to $400 million. And so we've been aggressively attacking the cost structure over the last several years. I think one of the questions we wrestle with right now, just given where vehicle production is and given where capacity sits, how we think about kind of fixed cost structure, facilities where, as an example, in light of an 84 million unit of global vehicle production estimate today, balancing that though with -- if you look at our outlook for next year, call it mid-teens revenue growth. So although vehicle production is at a significant low relative to where it's been in 2018, 2019, you look at our revenue growth rate knock on wood in assuming COVID stays under control. You should see fairly significant revenue growth and kind of working into capacity that was put in place when we head up more robust outlook for global vehicle production pre-COVID.
Adam Jonas:
Thanks, Kevin. Just next one, please. There's an argument that as suppliers roll off ICE legacy and then bring on new EV that it's a zero-sum game at best, maybe a less than zero-sum game, or are you at a point where as you see that transition from some ICE rolling off and being at the margin replaced by higher voltage that that is margin accretive or balanced, maybe give some color.
Kevin Clark:
It is margin accretive to our SPF segment. So it's from a content per vehicle standpoint, it's over 2x content per vehicle opportunity relative to ICE, and its margin accretive.
Adam Jonas:
Even at this level of scale, even that scale is still pretty darn low versus [multiple speakers]?
Joe Massaro:
Yes. It is [indiscernible] Adam. Part of it is just -- if you think of the nature of our high voltage portfolio it's so complimentary to the low voltage. So there's a lot of leverage of the existing infrastructure with an SPF.
Adam Jonas:
Got it. Yes.
Joe Massaro:
I mean, we've historically set our product lines breakeven between $350 million to 500 million of revenue, which was the case with active safety and sort of get to segment margins by $750 million to $1 billion. Our high voltage portfolio basically was sort of at segment margins out of the gates. And as you know, as we marched towards sort of this $1 billion of volume by 2022 to 2023, we believe that becomes more accretive. So …
Adam Jonas:
Okay.
Joe Massaro:
And it's, again, it's really just leveraging that very strong low voltage business, the same engineers, the same equipment, that type of thing.
Adam Jonas:
That's a helpful dynamic. If I could squeeze one more in, on mobility and services. I know it's small, but what is the year-on-year growth for that business? For example, in the quarter it's getting a lot of investor attention, even though I know you've said it's well below $100 million kind of revenue right now, but remind us, where is this revenue coming from? Who's paying it? My understanding Joe and Kevin is that it has the potential to be regular and recurring revenue coming off the data derived from your fleet customers. Perhaps, right now it's more one-off service revenue. I don’t know if you could just give a little color on the growth and then where it's coming from? That's it.
Kevin Clark:
Well, maybe we'll -- I'll talk about it and, Joe, you can comment on growth. So today its regular recurring revenue. It's below $100 million, it's regular recurring revenue. Revenues were certainly impacted this year. Based on the impact, I'd say more of COVID quite frankly than vehicle production. Most of our revenues today sit without global OEMs on a pre-production basis. We have some business that's post production and we have a significant focus on growing our position, not only within automotive, but have made progress outside of automotive in the commercial vehicle and fleet markets.
Joe Massaro:
Yes, it's again lower dollars. I'd call it flattish, Adam, this year. And part of that is because a good percent of that business is pre-production. So they're using the technology in the plants. So obviously the shutdown, the global shutdowns had a significant impact on that business. They just weren't using necessarily that tech, while they were shut down for that 8 to 9 weeks. So to Kevin's point it's sort of disproportionately impacted by the shutdowns versus vehicle production.
Adam Jonas:
Appreciate it, Joe. Thanks. Thanks, Kevin.
Kevin Clark:
Thank you.
Operator:
We will now take our next question from Joseph Spak from RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead.
Joseph Spak:
Thank you. Good morning, everyone.
Kevin Clark:
Good morning.
Joseph Spak:
I wanted to follow back on some of the high voltage business. I mean, now that there are more programs launching and certainly more programs being quoted, do you have a sense of whether your win share on those programs is higher than maybe on low voltage? And the reason I ask is it seems like the larger players like yourself that are able to sort of really -- have been able to invest in that business are probably better positioned than maybe some of the fringe players that exist on the low voltage side.
Kevin Clark:
Yes. So, Joe, that's a great question. So we should start from a high voltage strategy, we're very focused from a pursuit standpoint. So we very much focused on OEMs who have a strong market position, strong global position and a reputation for technology and a real commitment to building out a high voltage portfolio. And that's both on the traditional OEM side as well as on kind of the new newer battery electric focused OEMs. So we've made sure that we're positioned to carve a nice position in those in -- with those OEMs grow as they grow their product lines and as they expand geographically, so make sure that we can grow with them. When you look at opportunities quoted, call it roughly 15, just a couple of years ago, this year we'll quote on probably close to 40 opportunities and we have a win rate of north of 70%. Now some of that, again, I think is attributed to we're very focused in terms of where we're allocating it and dedicating those resources and making sure that we're positioned with those OEMs, who we really feel are going to drive volume in the future.
Joseph Spak:
That's very helpful. Joe, maybe just one on the fourth quarter guide. So at the midpoint it looks like [indiscernible] of operating income on sales of a little bit over $3.7 billion. I mean, if we adjust last year for the GM strike and the movement of the JV, sales are at about that level, but it looks like operating income was about $100 million higher. And I get that there's COVID costs from year-over-year basis of $30 million. D&A is higher, maybe $15 million and there's some higher R&D as well, you haven't given that number, but I don't know, maybe it's $20 million, $25 million, still leaves a hole. And I was wondering if you could help us understand what -- what's some of that other delta might be?
Joe Massaro:
Yes. Joe, listen, I think you're -- it's that engineering investment, although we are starting to lap that to some extent. Remember, we started putting those costs in Q4 last year. It's really around COVID and it's around some of these launch costs. We're seeing a significant uptick in launches in the fourth quarter. We had sort of a bit of a trough here in Q3 of launches. You can kind of see that in the North American numbers and getting ready for sort of Q4 and Q1 launches next year. And then as I -- as both Kevin and I mentioned, these schedules are choppy. So there is some inefficiencies around the customer schedules, whether you want to call them customer schedule inefficiencies or COVID inefficiencies, they're sort of all intertwined at this point. But I would say we're doing a very good job of operating, but it's probably not as efficient as it was in a prior and call it a year ago outside of the strike. So you've got some of that dynamic as well. But again, pretty happy with where we are in terms of coming back to strong instrumentals and where the business is performing, giving the challenges we have.
Kevin Clark:
Yes, Joe, if I could add -- just to underscore Joe's point on operating with COVID at the same point in time and we made the decision to make sure that we allocated excess resources. We're in the midst of launching [indiscernible], F-150, S Class for Daimler, Bronco, early next year. So those are launches that we don't want to be in a position where we impact the customer based on things we control. So just to underscore Joe's point, balancing what's going on from a supply chain standpoint today, plus the importance of those platforms for those OEMs and a successful launch, we've made the decision we're going to allocate incremental resources to make sure that we deliver out.
Joseph Spak:
Thank you.
Operator:
We will now take our next question from Chris McNally from Evercore. Please go ahead.
Chris McNally:
Thanks so much team. Two questions. One just on the short-term and one for medium-term. On the short-term in orders, I think you mentioned some of the shortfall for the full year, if you adjusted for production you'll be roughly flat. Can I just get a clarification? When you're booking those orders, are you making forward production assumptions of a return to normal? It looks like [indiscernible] the lifetime value you would use some more normalized for production assumptions.
Joe Massaro:
Yes, Chris, we basically -- we're sticking to the methodology just to make sure we have sort of apples-for-apples over multiple years. So we use IHS basically when we strike the deal, and we don't adjust prior bookings. Kevin talked about sort of if you did look at the 2019 bookings, what the impact would be, but obviously we haven't sort of restated any bookings. So we use IHS at the time, it's an outside service. It's -- it allows us to make sure both internally and externally, we have some consistency and can sort of explain changes going forward and we've continued to do that.
Chris McNally:
Okay. That's great. And then I can even look at the second half where the run rate depending on Q3 or Q4 is back into that sort of $20 billion to $24 billion as obviously IHS has come up. Okay. So that's super helpful. The second question -- thanks so much for the [indiscernible]. So much seems like it will be based on the rate of positive change at ASUV [ph] margin, which is still obviously well below your sort of adjusted target of 10% plus. Could you just give an idea, in that 10% to 11% for next year, should we make a pretty big jump on the ASUV margin year-over-year, or is it going to take longer because of the investments?
Joe Massaro:
No, listen, I think it's -- I would -- obviously, I don't want to get into too much detail. That was a sort of certainly a framework, not guide. But I'll go back to sort of my comments, we continue to be on the longer-term trajectories we talked about. Kevin mentioned the $2 billion of ASUX revenue getting to 2022. We did put additional investment into engineering this year in ASUX, but as I mentioned, we're starting to lap that -- some of that started to go in the back half of this year. So we haven't -- have not revised long-term margin expectations for that business. Again, I'm going to be hesitant to sort of provide specifics until we work through. And there's a lot going on to Kevin's point, some of those launches where we're staffed up are on the active safety side. So there's still a lot of moving pieces for 2021, but certainly comfortable with the framework we talked about.
Chris McNally:
Okay. Thank you.
Operator:
We will now take our next question from Emmanuel Rosner from Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.
Emmanuel Rosner:
Hi, good morning.
Kevin Clark:
Good morning.
Emmanuel Rosner:
Can you start with -- I was hoping to take your brains on LiDAR. Obviously, quite a bit of noise around it, with a few of the leading startups there coming to market. From your perspective and in your conversation with the automakers around sort of like Level 2 plus and higher levels of autonomy, how prominent -- how important is often is LiDAR part of the solution that you're invited to [indiscernible], and how you’re essentially dealing with it? I know you had struck multiple agreements with different LiDAR companies in the past. And as part of this all, what was the thinking around working with others rather than sort of like developing some of it yourself?
Kevin Clark:
Yes. From a LiDAR standpoint, where you begin to see the need for LiDAR and we believe it's necessarily from a technology standpoint on Level 3 solutions and higher a manual. We have not seen any as it relates to Level 2 plus Level 3 minus Level 2. So a solid place in Level 3 and above. Having said that, as a radar technology company, we're working very hard to advance our radar technology. Pushing to see if we can put -- advance the technology to the point where you minimize the need for LiDAR technology on Level 3 solutions. So advancing that technology forward. What's driving that is quite frankly the desire from an OEM standpoint to bring down costs of that technology, or of that solution providing that Level 3 solution. Why we decided not to invest in LiDAR, we have strong capabilities in radar. We've not previously worked on developing LiDAR solutions. There were others out there who were further along. So from a capital standpoint, we made the decision to partner with those who are already in the business and have the capability.
Emmanuel Rosner:
Okay. That's a very good color. And then the second question on -- a follow-up on 2021 margin outlook. How should we think within that about incremental margins as volume recover? Obviously, you're assuming a 10% to recovery in global auto production, if you were to think more like 14% or 15% like guide says, what would that do to your margin outflow for next year?
Joe Massaro:
Yes, Emmanuel, as I mentioned to Chris, we're not going to go into too much more detail on 2021. I think that frameworks, we've got a lot of work to do. I think that framework hopefully is helpful to folks. I do think as you look through incrementals in the back half of the year, I think those are certainly indicative to what we think the business is capable of doing. But again, I'm not going to get too much more specific on 2021. We've got lots of work to do to finalize those numbers.
Emmanuel Rosner:
And that's understandable. Thank you.
Joe Massaro:
Thank you.
Operator:
We will take our next question from Itay Michaeli from Citi. Please go ahead.
Itay Michaeli:
Great. Thanks. Good morning, everyone.
Kevin Clark:
Hi.
Itay Michaeli:
Just on -- one more on incrementals. I know in the past you've talked about sort of a low 20 long-term incremental margin. Joe, any changes to your thinking about kind of that long-term incremental?
Joe Massaro:
No, no. I mean, listen, you got to work through when you really clear all of the collective COVID noise. But as we've said, a couple of times the longer -- we've seen nothing at this point other than the -- there's this short mid-term disruption, nothing that's changed our longer-term thinking about things like growth over market or the long-term profitability of the business.
Itay Michaeli:
Okay.
Kevin Clark:
Yes, Itay, one thing we're sensitive to, I think we want to just make sure that everyone understands we're dealing with a lot of COVID noise. The supply chain is tight as it relates to managing through COVID and that has an impact on costs. And our focus -- our priority is keeping our employees safe and serving our customers. So that does add incremental cost to the system and that needs to be factored in when you think about incremental margins, incremental and detrimental margins. So …
Itay Michaeli:
Absolutely. Just a follow-up on active safety. Do you quantify the market share gains, discussed on Slide 7, maybe talk about your win rates? And then Kevin, I think you alluded also earlier in your prepared remarks to kind of new business models with inactive safety. I'm wondering if you can expand on that as well.
Kevin Clark:
Yes. Sure. Win rates on active safety for us are running at north of 70% on active safety. Also solutions as well as components we're developing our second generation ADAS platform. So the advancement of the satellite architecture program where you'll have further domain centralization, you'll have more compute more advanced perception systems, the ability to scale the number of radars that are used in the system and the ability to extract software from hardware. So in a position where we can provide the full platform, we can provide a portion of it, which could be anywhere between the perception system or the hardware, or just the software solutions, whether it's under the underlying Sensor Fusion, the underlying software or a portion of the features, all or some of the features. So it's providing our OEM customers -- in fact the target is with a lower cost solution with more flexibility for them as well as more flexibility for us.
Itay Michaeli:
Great. That's very helpful. Thank you.
Operator:
We will now take our next question from Brian Johnson from Barclays. Please go ahead.
Kevin Clark:
Hi, Brian.
Brian Johnson:
Good morning. A couple of questions. So first semi housekeeping, semi strategic is what are your thoughts on capital allocation going into '21 and '22, and specifically on what you might do in terms of -- or recommending to the Board around the dividend?
Kevin Clark:
So I'll start, Joe [indiscernible] specifics. I mean, we continue -- we've done a great job from a cash flow management standpoint this year. So obviously continued focus on increasing cash flow. Our priorities continue to be first organic investment in our business, whether that's high voltage, whether it's the Gen 2 ADAS platform that I talked about, advancing our perception system capabilities, certainly smart vehicle architecture. As we talked about back in June, we have a very deep funnel of M&A opportunities in and around the engineered component areas, both within automotive as well as outside of automotive, that certainly is a priority. I think as it relates to dividend and share repurchase, we'd like to let the dust settle a little bit more on COVID before we finalize a recommendation and bring it forward to the Board.
Joe Massaro:
Yes, and I'd agree with that, Brian. I think our -- again, like many things we've talked about, the long-term strategy remains intact that included a very deliberate capital allocation policy. We would expect at some point to get back to that, but it's really a matter of timing. And when we really feel comfortable, we've cleared the trees here from a broader COVID and impact perspective.
Brian Johnson:
Okay. Thanks. Second question. A little bit more strategic. You had a blog post earlier a week or two ago around cybersecurity standards. You're now breaking out connectivity and security as a -- as one of your -- parts of your pie. But similar to the LiDAR question, at least I'm not aware of a cybersecurity unit within Aptiv. Is this something that either
Kevin Clark:
Yes, so cybersecurity, obviously given and I don't need to tell you this, Brian, just given connectivity in the vehicle in the various systems, cybersecurity is a bigger area of focus for OEM customers. To support our product development capabilities, we have -- I don't know, 25 or 30 cybersecurity engineers focused on product, focused on our product and focus on the integration of what we develop as well as what we integrate into our solutions from other providers. We've used cybersecurity, quite frankly, it's table stakes. We don't view that as a commercial business. So we tend to do work internally as well as use outside parties that -- more often that are directed by the OEM. So I hope that answers your question.
Brian Johnson:
So that's not a capability you think about making an acquisition for?
Kevin Clark:
No, it's a capability we have. We don't view that really as a viable commercial business for a player like our self. We view it as a necessary requirement and it's included -- it's a part of the solutions we provide our customers.
Brian Johnson:
Okay. Okay. Thanks.
Operator:
We will now take our next question from John Murphy from Bank of America. Please go ahead.
John Murphy:
Good morning, guys.
Kevin Clark:
Hi, John. Good morning.
John Murphy:
I'm not going to beat the dead horse on margins here. I appreciate that the 2021 framework, but is there anything shifting in the business as far as investment or mix that would lead you to believe that you couldn't get back to 12% plus operating margin and maybe even expand from there?
Joe Massaro:
[Indiscernible].
John Murphy:
Okay. [indiscernible].
Kevin Clark:
No.
John Murphy:
That's great. Okay.
Kevin Clark:
Yes, again, I think it's important -- Joe highlighted this. We're dealing with round numbers $30 million of COVID related cost per quarter, right? And at the same time dealing with supply chain choppiness or disruptions related to Tier 2, Tier 3 electronics and components, suppliers who probably are dealing with labor availability challenges and other issues. And our focus is on making sure that we deliver for our customers. So that's something that -- as we deal with COVID, we're wrestling through.
John Murphy:
It makes all the sense. [Indiscernible] thanks. Just a second question. When you think about diversification, I was curious if you could talk about the non-auto business in the quarter because the other verticals, in particular, in the commercial vehicle side or not quite as strong as what we're seeing in the light vehicle side. In the short-term and then over time, just kind of remind us where you're trying to go with that, what that potentially can mean for margin, 1 to 5 years out?
Joe Massaro:
Yes. Those businesses continue to be -- again, relatively small. We finish the year with about 15% of non-auto non-light vehicle revenues, so commercial vehicle and industrial. Those businesses continue to perform well. They’re accretive to both the growth over market and the margin and we expect them to continue to be, there's a couple of areas within what I'll call some of that non-auto business around telecom, where we've seen really strong growth both through the addition of Gabocom, but also on an organic basis and well above market. The military business on the interconnect side continues to be very strong. We tend to be more heavily weighted towards Mil Aero versus commercial aerospace. So that's been helpful overall. But again, as you think about that engineered components business, Winchester, HellermannTyton continue to be accretive to growth rate and margin I would expect them to continue to be. So that's certainly where we've -- where we're focusing those investments both organically and inorganically.
John Murphy:
Got you. And then just lastly any election game planning around what could happen here in November 3rd or after November 3rd?
Kevin Clark:
Yes, we watch it. We're watching it closely, John. Obviously, it sounds like one administration would be more focused on clean energy here in the United States that could have an impact on our sales high voltage solutions. We feel like we're well positioned and could benefit from that. Obviously, a lot of the growth that we're experiencing is in Europe and China with those OEMs and under either [indiscernible] either a party where to win our view is you'll still have a certain amount of regionalization of the supply chain due to [indiscernible] on tariffs and trade.
John Murphy:
Great. Thank you very much.
Kevin Clark:
Some impact, not a huge impact.
John Murphy:
Yes, yes. Yes, not like '16. Thanks very much.
Kevin Clark:
Yes.
Operator:
We will take our next question from David Kelley from Jefferies. Please go ahead.
David Kelley:
Good morning, Kevin, Joe and Elena.
Kevin Clark:
Hi, David.
David Kelley:
I appreciate you squeezing me in here. I’m doing well. A couple of questions. I really appreciate the active safety slide. Just curious if you could talk about semi autonomous, maybe what you're seeing there, customer interest in the space, things like on the highway autonomous driving would be great.
Kevin Clark:
Yes. Yes. So L2, L2 plus is today the fastest growing area from an ADAS standpoint. We've actually seen, I'd say a bit of a pause on L3, given cost and given the reset on volumes due to COVID. So I wouldn't say cancellations, but delay of programs with those OEMs who were allocating resources against it. But the fastest growing area from an ADAS standpoint, again, tends to be that L2 plus, L2 plus sort of area. Active safety helps OEM customers sell. When you watch advertising for vehicles today, now it tends to be about active safety solutions. Consumers are demanding it. OEM customers make money off of it. So it continues to be a major area of focus for OEM customers.
David Kelley:
Okay, got it. Thank you. And maybe just a follow-up on that point, Kevin, is that -- is L2 plus, should we see driver monitoring solutions and that sort of solutions? I mean, is that something you're doing in house as well?
Kevin Clark:
Yes. Yes, so we've won a number of driver monitoring programs as part of our active safety solution set. Obviously, it gets more advanced when you head to Level 3 solutions where you need to re-engage the driver and certainly even more enhanced when you think about L4, L5. But it's a product area we've been in for roughly 5 years and have a number of programs.
David Kelley:
All right. Perfect. Thank you.
Kevin Clark:
Thank you.
Operator:
We will now take our last question from Dan Levy from Credit Suisse. Please go ahead.
Dan Levy:
Hey.
Kevin Clark:
Good morning, Dan.
Dan Levy:
Hey, guys. Thanks for squeezing me in. First, can you maybe provide an update on Motional. It's been live for a couple of quarters now. Where's the progress -- it gives a sense of progress, and I think when you announced the deal, you were talking about plans for commercialization, or you’ve your platform ready by 2022. Is that intact, and what's the update on customer discussions on uptake of that?
Kevin Clark:
Yes, it's going extremely well. So our Gen 1 platform is launching this year. Gen 2 is on track to be launched in 2022 the integration, or the integration of the joint ventures are bringing together the [indiscernible] organization and former Aptiv organization is going extremely well. [Indiscernible] in office and so we're expanding our technology center in Singapore. We've moved into a new facility in Pittsburgh, a significant amount of hiring has taken place over the last 9 months. And most importantly from a technology development standpoint, everything is on track. We've -- after COVID hit, we stopped our Las Vegas pilot with Lyft, that's been restarted. We announced a partnership with [indiscernible] a city to be determined, but that will happen over the next 6 months or so, we'll pick a city and actually we'll be providing rides with them that are integrated into the public transit system in a particular city. And then continue to have commercial discussions with several different ride [indiscernible] healing companies and would expect to be able to announce something in the not too distant future. So all on track.
Dan Levy:
Great. Thank you. And then just a second, just a follow-up on the broader concept of just restructuring. I think when COVID started, you mentioned the potential to take some deeper restructuring, and obviously what we've seen is a much better recovery on the end markets and what most of us would have anticipated to maybe probably less footprint production required and what would have initially been anticipated. So the question is where do you stand on, I guess, post-COVID restructuring. And one of the issues in the past, I think, was challenges on being maybe too proactive on responding to end markets was taking the staffing out and not having enough staffing in place for a volume snapback. Is that inefficiency at all a risk, or do you have ample sort of staffing personnel in place for a volume snapback? So just …
Joe Massaro:
Dan, it's Joe. Let me take that. So we certainly, as I mentioned, we sort of ended the austerity programs as people came back to and we needed people to come back to work. In Q3, we have started to look at the people side of things, think the overhead functions and such and have taken some incremental restructuring, that benefit will flow into the -- to the back half of the year, call that sort of a $45 million number sort of on a full year basis maybe a little bit more. Those plans are in place. And as I talked about in my prepared comments, Kevin's mentioned, I mean, really the -- what we're looking at now for 2021 is how best to balance some of those footprint decisions and take longer term. Do you take longer term restructuring actions versus where do you think you're going to need capacity. And for us that's a -- that's an effort over the next couple of months really based on where we see, very strong, continued outgrowth of that 6% to 8%, plus 10% vehicle production, how quickly do we get back to sort of where we were capacitized to pre-COVID. And I think, those actions will -- it will be directly related to how fast we view ourselves as getting back. So that's in process. But I think we did a good job in the first half of the year with the austerity where looking at opportunities for additional savings going into next year on the people side as appropriate. And then a longer term, what I'll call sort of infrastructure type decisions will really be based around where we see capacity. And I would just remember, and I’m -- I try not to be sensitive to this, but we didn't need COVID to tell us how to run our business more efficiently as Kevin mentioned. We really spent the last 3, 4 years very aggressively going at overhead costs and how to improve the overall profitability of that business and how to fund some of the initiatives. So I think we've done a really good job over the last few years. And that muscle is very well exercised in the company and will continue to apply it as needed.
Dan Levy:
Great. Thank you.
Kevin Clark:
Thanks.
Elena Rosman:
Thank you for your [multiple speakers]. Sorry, go ahead, Tracy.
Operator:
That concludes today’s question-and-answer session . I would now like to turn the conference back to the host for any additional or closing remarks.
Elena Rosman:
Thank you, Tracy. As always, we'll be available today and the latter part of this week and into next week for any follow-up questions. And I'll just turn it to Kevin, if you have any final comments.
Kevin Clark:
No. Thank you everyone for your time. We appreciate you participating in our phone call. Please stay safe.
Elena Rosman:
Thank you.
Operator:
This concludes today's call. Thank you for your participation, ladies and gentlemen. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Good day. And welcome to Aptiv Second Quarter 2020 Earnings Conference Call. My name is Shelby, and I’ll be your conference operator today. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speakers’ remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session. Thank you. Elena Rosman, Aptiv’s Vice President of Investor Relations, you may begin your conference.
Elena Rosman:
Thank you, Shelby. Good morning. And thank you to everyone for joining Aptiv’s second quarter 2020 earnings conference call. To follow along with today’s presentation, our slides can be found at ir.aptiv.com. Today’s review of our actual financials excludes restructuring and other special items and will address the continuing operations of Aptiv. The reconciliation between GAAP and non-GAAP measures for our Q2 financials are included in the back of today’s presentation and the earnings press release. Please see slide two, for a disclosure on forward-looking statements, which reflect Aptiv’s current view of future financial performance, which may be materially different from our actual performance for reasons that we cite in our Form 10-K and other SEC filings, including uncertainties posed by the COVID-19 pandemic and the difficulty in predicting its future course and impact on the global economy. Joining us today will be Kevin Clark, Aptiv’s President and CEO; and Joe Massaro, Senior Vice President and CFO. Kevin will provide a strategic update on the business and then Joe will cover the financials results in more detail. With that, I would like to turn the call over to Kevin Clark.
Kevin Clark:
Thank you, Elena. Good morning, everyone. Beginning on slide three, I’d like to spend a minute providing an update on how Aptiv is responding and contributing to the fight against COVID-19. We’ve concentrated our efforts on ensuring the health and safety of our people, the communities where they live and where we operate, as well as the safe and efficient restart of our operations, so that we can flawlessly serve our customers around the world, and at the same time, we’ve taken incremental actions to preserve our financial strength and enhance our competitive position as we emerge from this crisis. We’re proud to be one of the global giving partners that are supporting hospitals and clinics treating COVID patients around the world, and our Aptiv team members have gone the extra mile, delivering urgent health care supplies and volunteering their time and personal resources to help stop the spread of the coronavirus in their local communities. Our Safe Start protocols, the additional safety measures that we put in place at the very start of the pandemic and have been shared with customers, suppliers and government agencies across the globe have allowed for the safe and successful restart of each of our facilities worldwide, allowing us to effectively ramp-up operations. I’m proud of how well we performed in these challenging times, and I’m grateful for our team’s passion and sense of urgency, ensuring our efforts are making a real difference. Moving to slide four, as expected, the second quarter proved to be challenging with COVID-related shutdowns driving unprecedented declines in vehicle production in both North America and Europe. Despite the depth of declines in April and the slow phasing of restart operations beginning in May, a rebound of vehicle production in China, combined with solid operating execution, contributed to better-than-expected financial results. Global vehicle production declined 54%, while our revenues declined 43% to almost $2 billion, 11 points favorable to the underlying vehicle production market. EBITDA and operating income losses totaled $49 million and $229 million, respectively, and earnings per share was a loss of $1.10. Looking at each geographic region, the economy in China continued to improve, resulting in better-than-expected bounce back in vehicle production, which was up 6%. Vehicle production declined 68% in North America and 62% in Europe, reflecting the complete shutdown in both regions during the month of April and the slow restart of operations beginning in May. While retail demand in North America and Europe has improved, production schedules remained somewhat volatile, primarily the result of periodic supply chain disruptions, principally in Mexico due to COVID-19. And visibility into the pace of recovery in the second half of the year remains low, which is reflected in our outlook for vehicle production to be down 10% to 15% versus the same period of prior year. The deliberate actions we’ve taken to strengthen our business model over the last few years, including portfolio changes and cost structure initiatives have positioned us to respond and adapt in this much more challenging environment. Turning to slide five. Despite the challenging macro environment, the proactive steps, we’ve taken to protect our employees, to deliver for our customers and enhance our financial strength have put us in a strong position to continue executing our strategy. As it stands today, we’re fully operational with each of our 126 major manufacturing sites up and running, all employing our standardized safety protocols allowing us to operate across our global network at roughly 85% of our normalized capacity and even higher at some of our manufacturing locations. As our facilities prepare to restart operations, we have the resources in place to safely ramp up production once we receive the necessary government approvals in alignment with customer production schedules, which were, as I mentioned, very volatile during the quarter. I’m happy to say that as a result of the strong coordination and collaboration with our supply chain partners, we had zero customer disruptions during our restart of operations. With the learning’s from the successful restart of production, we’ve gained meaningful experience in operating safely with COVID-19 which is critical. We believe that the residual impacts will remain with us for some time, resulting in lower production volumes and continued operational inefficiencies. And as such, we’re not expecting a rapid recovery and continue to be cautious as we plan for 2021. However, the demand for our industry-leading portfolio of advanced technology solutions align to the safe, green and connected mega trends remains as strong as ever, as evidenced by the increase in program launch volumes year-to-date. And as a result, we continue to make the necessary investment to support the strong pipeline of new business pursuits and new program launches in 2020 and beyond. Since the COVID-19 outbreak earlier this year, our teams have been working collaboratively, focusing on the health and well-being of our employees and then identifying unique value-added solutions for our customers. To do so, we have leveraged technology to do more with digital tools. By upgrading our data center hardware and network connectivity, we are able to significantly enhance the scale and the quality of our employee conferencing and collaboration capabilities, keeping our workforce connected and operating more efficiently, allowing for the uninterrupted execution of our strategic imperatives. In summary, we continue to build on our strong track record of execution and innovation and remain focused on delivering for our customers and at the same time, making Aptiv even more resilient. Turning to slide six. New business bookings totaled $5.9 billion year-to-date, reflecting the impact of challenges related to operating with COVID-19 over the last six months. As the situation stabilizes, we expect a more normalized run rate of new business awards to occur during the second half of this year. Our Advanced Safety & User experience segment booked approximately 1 billion in the first half of the year, as a handful of customer awards have been pushed to the second half of the year. And our Signal & Power solutions segment had new business bookings totaling roughly 5 billion year-to-date, including 700 million of high-voltage electrification awards driven by the rapidly increasing demand for electrified vehicle platforms, the result of more stringent CO2 regulations and increasing consumer demand. So in summary, our new business bookings over the last several years reinforces our ability to sustain strong above market growth well into the future, underscoring the strength of our portfolio of market relevant technologies, aligned to the safe, green and connected megatrends. Turning to slide seven, our competitive mode is expanding just as the total addressable market in both our core automotive and new and adjacent markets continues to grow. Our core markets are expected to increase over 50% the next five years, reaching 120 billion, with the most significant portion of that growth coming from Aptiv’s safety and high-voltage electrification, two markets where we have a very strong competitive position. In addition, our traditional strengths in areas such as central compute, engineered components, and vehicle architecture enable us to unlock incremental opportunities in adjacent markets, and our capabilities in software development and data analytics position us well for opportunities in new markets, including connected services and autonomous driving, which bring new business models with recurring higher-margin revenue streams. The opportunities in our core new and adjacent markets position us for more profitable and sustainable growth in 2025 and well beyond. Turning to slide eight, our strong track record of new business bookings and revenue growth over market are proof points that our portfolio strategy is well-aligned to the areas of growth within our industry. As a result, we continue to fully fund investments in several strategic growth initiatives, including advanced ADAS systems, high-voltage electrification and vehicle connectivity. All markets that are poised for continued robust growth in the years ahead. Highlighting a few examples, in Advanced Safety & User experience, our unique approach to compute centralization and satellite sensors has been a game changer for the industry, with five OEMs launching our first in industry scalable ADAS platform over the next 18 months. We secured 8 billion of lifetime bookings on the satellite architecture platform to date, which will be deployed across 10 million vehicles over the next five years. More importantly, our Gen 2 platform will increase our lead with the deployment of next-generation perception systems, the extensive use of AI and a higher level of software abstraction that will deliver even more consumer value, while enabling new business models for Aptiv. In our Signal & Power Solutions segment, we’re leveraging our industry-leading position in vehicle architecture to become the partner of choice for both our traditional OEM and emerging customers planning to launch electrified platforms. By incorporating our portfolio of high-voltage electrification solutions, including the conductors, connectors, electrical sensors and cable management systems, we’re able to dramatically reduce the weight and physical size of the electrical distribution system by up to 40% thereby reducing costs. And lastly, our customers are looking for more intelligent, connected and integrated solutions to detect and address warranty issues faster and resolve them much more efficiently. We're currently working with one global OEM to meet its goal of connecting 100% of all new vehicles, with our connected edge hardware and software application, enabling a much higher level of customer satisfaction and significantly reduce warranty expense. Turning to slide nine, our ability to leverage our unique full stack systems capabilities is helping our customers realize their future technology roadmaps. They understand the changes in vehicle architecture are critical to delivering the feature-rich, highly automated vehicles they need in the future. As a result, our customers are converging around new architectures to deliver the higher, contented more safe, green and connected vehicles of the future, where we know how to provide value. Thanks to our unique position as the only provider of both the brain and the nervous system of the vehicle. We serve as a strong collaboration partner for increasingly complex architectures on the path to SVA, with industry-leading capabilities in power data, compute, perception systems, software and sensor fusion. Our customers recognize Aptiv as a technology partner capable of both the design and manufacturing of advanced hardware, fully integrated into the most complex vehicle systems, which combined with our differentiated and modularized software capabilities creates value for our customers at every level of the stack, accelerating their development of the safe, green and connected features consumers want with the proven automotive-grade systems that they can trust. Smart Vehicle Architecture is a scalable architecture solution that lowers the total cost of ownership of the OEM, while also unlocking the opportunity for Aptiv to capture more value in the vehicle. I'll wrap up on slide 10, before I hand the call over to Joe. Despite the challenges we faced in the last six months, we remain laser-focused on continuing our track record of outperformance and long-term value creation, as we execute our strategy and deliver on our vision for the company. The vision is the logical extension of our business strategy, leveraging our unique position at the intersection of the safe, green and connected megatrends that are transforming our industry, allowing us to outperform in any environment. Through the rigorous execution of our strategy, we’ve been creating more sustainable business defined by improved revenue diversification across regions, customers, vehicle platforms and end markets and accelerated and more predictable growth profile, increased profitability and cash flow, growing sales faster than costs and converting more income to cash with significant upside from disciplined capital deployment, all of which results in meaningful shareholder returns. With that, I’ll hand the call over to Joe to take us through the second quarter results in more detail.
Joe Massaro:
Thanks, Kevin. And good morning, everyone. Starting with a recap of the second quarter financials on slide 11. As Kevin highlighted earlier, it was another difficulty quarter for Aptiv in the industry. At the time of our last earnings call, China was starting to come back online, and customers had shut down operations in Europe and North America, which lasted well into May. Despite the extent of the shutdown, we had strong execution across our businesses as we learn to operate safely in a COVID-19 environment. Revenues of $2 billion were down 43% as vehicle production declined 54%. Despite the sudden and severe COVID-related declines, we worked hard to achieve near breakeven levels in the second quarter. As a result, adjusted EBITDA was a loss of $49 million, better than we planned, attributed to strong cost management with austerity measures of approximately $135 million and better manufacturing performance as we restarted our operations, as well as slightly higher volumes. Adjusted earnings per share in the quarter was negative $1.10 and assumes the convertible preferred shares issued last month were treated as if they were outstanding in the weighted average share count. Lastly, operating cash flow was negative $106 million, including working capital usage of only $107 million, a testament to our team’s ability to efficiently manage working capital as production ramped up in June. Looking at second quarter revenues in more detail on slide 12, adjusted growth was down 43%, reflecting 11 points of growth over market. Despite volumes declining by $1.5 billion, we saw strong growth over market in every region. Price downs were approximately 1.5% and unfavorable foreign exchange in commodities of approximately $80 million. Our regional performance reflects the timing and pace of restart activities around the world. Starting with North America, vehicle production declined 68% in the quarter. Our operations resumed later in May, about two weeks after Europe, and we saw a favorable platform mix as OEMs prioritized higher contented vehicles as they began rebuilding inventory. In Europe, we continued the trend of strong double-digit market outgrowth, driven by continued interest in active safety and high-voltage electrification platforms. And lastly, in China, our revenues increased 14%, outpacing the market by 8 points, driven by a significant increase in new launches, which we expect to stabilize in the back half of the year. Moving to the segments on the next slide. Advanced Safety & User experience revenues declined 47% in the quarter, reflecting 7 points of growth over market without growth across all product lines. AS and UX EBITDA declined 129%, driven primarily by lower volumes. For compatibility purposes, the automated driving spend that is now part of the active Hyundai joint venture is excluded from the prior year results. As Kevin mentioned, we are seeing some COVID-19 effects and OEM launch schedules with certain launches pushed into late 2020 or early 2021. Turning to Signal & Power Solutions, revenues were down 42%, reflecting 12 points of growth over market, driven by the unfavorable impact of customer shutdowns in the quarter, partially offset by market outperformance in our high-voltage electrification, and engineered components product lines, as well as better performance in our industrial end markets, some of which continued operating as essential businesses during the shutdown. EBITDA in the segment declined approximately 100%, primarily driven by lower volumes and inefficiencies associated with the shutdown and subsequent restart. Turning to the next slide, I’ll provide some further perspective on how Aptiv's flexible operating model is allowing us to manage through the current environment. Starting with more diversified revenue growth. Our disciplined growth strategy has allowed us to shift more of our revenues to faster growing areas within automotive, such as higher contented trucks and SUVs and active safety and high-voltage electrification solutions where penetration is driving significant growth. While we continue to expand our capabilities and reach in commercial vehicles in diversified end markets, all of which has allowed us to sustain strong secular growth over market. We also remain laser-focused on optimizing our cost structure and redeploying those savings into higher return investments for growth. As previously discussed, over the last several years, we’ve worked hard to lower our overall costs, improve efficiency and lower our breakeven levels, as evidenced by our second quarter performance, which includes the additional costs associated with operating with COVID-19. We will continue to rationalize our fixed costs in light of the lower production environment as we head into 2021 and focus our productivity initiatives in areas that structurally lower our costs, improve service levels and enhance the flexibility of our business model to position the company for better through-cycle performance. Our financial framework includes reinvestment in our businesses, both organically and inorganically and further positions the portfolio for accelerated growth and margin expansion. Allowing us to deliver flawlessly for customers and enhancing our through-cycle resiliency. Our continued focus on long-term shareholder value ensures we make the appropriate trade-off between short term goals and executing our long-term strategy. As we navigate the second half of the year, we will continue to utilize our safety protocols to ensure we protect our employees and deliver for our customers. We invest in our growth businesses with high ROI CapEx investments, largely to support new customer wins and expansion of key product lines. And be disciplined acquirers by increasing scale and leverage in our Engineered Components businesses and enhancing our auto tech capabilities in software, artificial intelligence, machine learning and systems engineering. The consistent execution of our strategy, even in the face of today’s unprecedented challenges is a major differentiator for Aptiv and an important lever for shareholder value generation going forward. Turning to the next slide and the outlook for vehicle production in the second half, while operations have resumed, customer schedules remain very fluid. We have tightened our outlook for vehicle production this year to a decline of approximately 25%, assuming a slow ramp-up and vehicle production declines in every region in the second half. Starting with North America. In the second quarter, we safely returned 55,000 employees, representing 85% of our labor force with minimal incidence of infections since reopening. That’s a testament to the outstanding job our team has done, putting the right measures in place to safely restart operations and safeguard employees. However, threat of plant closures and potential customer supply chain disruptions is something we continue to watch closely, as new hotspots arise across the US and Mexico. In Europe, we saw similar progress. Recovery has been more gradual as stimulus initiatives have helped stabilize demand and accelerate the penetration of electrified vehicles. And while China production levels have increased, inventories remain elevated and customers are adjusting schedules accordingly. The second half outlook is highly variable as the impact on near-term consumer demand and the risk of additional COVID related disruptions is reflected in the third and fourth quarter schedules we are seeing from our customers. As a result, we expect 2020 vehicle production to be around 70 million units globally. And if we had to snap the chalk line today, we would expect modest end market growth in 2021, effectively adjusting for the shutdowns in the first half of 2020 taking global vehicle production to approximately 77 million to 78 million units in 2021. However, despite the near-term end market weakness, the long-term secular growth drivers remain intact. While growth over market can be choppy on a quarterly basis, we expect full year outgrowth in 2020 in the range of six to eight points, as previously communicated. In summary, our ability to optimize how we operate in a weak macro environment will allow us to continue to outperform in 2020 and beyond. Turning to slide 16. Beginning in Q1, as we saw the impact of COVID-19 shutdowns on our operations, we took decisive actions to enhance our financial flexibility. The austerity measures we implemented in the first quarter, which totaled over $600 million in annualized cash savings, helped preserve our liquidity and enhance our financial health during the unprecedented volume declines in the first half of the year. In June, our $2.3 billion equity offering helped to reinforce our financial flexibility against any further business disruptions during the recovery, while allowing us to continue to invest for growth and take advantage of additional organic and inorganic investment opportunities, and we subsequently paid down our revolver in full. As a result, we ended the quarter with $1.9 billion in cash on hand and $4.1 billion of total liquidity. This, coupled with the actions we have taken in the last few years to strengthen our capital structure has allowed us to keep a well-laddered debt maturity profile and extend the weighted average tenor on our debt. In summary, the proactive steps we have taken to protect our employees, deliver for our customers, reduce expenses, conserve capital and preserve optionality has put us on an even stronger footing as we emerge from the current prices. With that, I’d like to hand the call back to Kevin for his closing remarks.
Kevin Clark:
Thank you, Joe. Let me wrap up on slide 17 before opening it up for Q&A. As I mentioned earlier, the second quarter proved very challenging as the industry met unprecedented declines in vehicle production in both North America and in Europe. With the successful research of operations, we believe our robust business model and the solid execution of our strategy have validated our through-cycle resiliency and have differentiated Aptiv, such that even in the most difficult of times, we’re capable of capitalizing on the safe, green and connected megatrends that are driving increased vehicle content and translating that capability into market share gains. While the near-term outlook for underlying market trends and overall end market demand for new vehicles remains uncertain, the actions we’ve taken to enhance our financial flexibility during the crisis will drive continued financial outperformance. We’re confident that our disciplined approach to capital allocation will lead to additional value creation opportunities for Aptiv and drive increased shareholder returns. Our confidence in our ability to deliver sustainable value creation is underpinned by the dedication and commitment of our people, which is our greatest asset. I’d like to reiterate how proud I am of our 160,000 team members, who through all the recent challenges has made significant personal sacrifices, while continuing to think and act like owners so that Aptiv could operate safely and deliver for our customers and for our shareholders. Looking ahead, we’re confident we will emerge from this crisis more unified in our mission in a stronger competitive position and financially even more resilient. With that, let’s open up the line for Q&A.
Operator:
Thank you. [Operator Instructions] We’ll take our first question from Dan Galves with Wolf Research.
Dan Galves:
Hi. Good morning, everybody.
Kevin Clark:
Morning.
Dan Galves:
Can you talk a little bit about the austerity measures and the COVID cost, I think, about net $100 million savings in Q2? How much of that is sustained into the second half? And if you could give us any sense of what we should be modeling in terms of incremental margins on the revenue recovery from the second quarter?
Joe Massaro:
Yeah, Dan. Its Joe. You’re right. It’s about net $100. So COVID was about, call it round numbers, a little more than 30 in the quarter. And that’s the direct costs. So the cost of PPE and the like, I think it’s fair to assume, those continue for a period of time in theory, as we brought back more employees. We’re currently roughly at 85%. That would go up. That’s obviously variable. There’s an element of that that's variable to the employee number. The austerity measures, Q2 was a fairly significant effort from an austerity perspective, that $135 million with a lot of people out on furlough and TLO obviously, that’s harder to sustain or not sustainable once you get up to 85% production. So those costs have started coming back into the - back into the business. The way I would think about decrementals at this point, I’d expect, the back half of the year to look more like Q1, maybe a little more favorable to Q1, because Q1 had a couple of points in there as related to the China shutdown. But I’d be thinking more of sort of a Q1 decremental than a Q2, maybe a couple of points better, if we don’t experience shutdowns.
Dan Galves:
Okay. Great. And just longer term, we are seeing EV and plug-in hybrid adoption ramp-up in 2020. How does that make you feel about your high-voltage targets going out a couple of years?
Kevin Clark:
Yeah, Dan, I’ll make a comment on that. Listen, we feel like we’re extremely well-positioned from a portfolio standpoint. Principally in that SPS segment to benefit from the drive towards more high voltage, whether it be battery electric vehicle or plug-in hybrid. And when you look at, at least industry projections as it relates to high-voltage electrification out to 2025 to roughly, let’s call it 25% of vehicle production and well beyond that in 2030. We feel as though we’re extremely well-positioned, both based on the strength of our existing high-voltage product portfolio, as well as our competitive position in the low voltage market, quite frankly, right. We’re on roughly one of every three to four vehicles globally. So we’re dealing with those customers, those traditional OEMs today. And have significant opportunities with the emerging OEMs in the future.
Operator:
And we’ll take our next question from Joseph Spak with RBC Capital Markets.
Joseph Spak:
Thanks. Good morning, everyone.
Kevin Clark:
Good morning.
Joe Massaro:
Hey, Joe.
Joseph Spak:
Maybe just a follow-up on the austerity measures, as you, sort of, evaluate how you do business, and Kevin, you gave a whole bunch of examples like is - do you see an opportunity overtime for some of those to stick or is there an opportunity for you to maybe take additional action to make some of those temporary costs more permanent as you, sort of, re-evaluate what the global environment looks like over the next couple of years?
Kevin Clark:
Yeah, maybe I’ll start, Joe, and then Joe can certainly chime in. I think we should start with over the last several years, as you all know, we’ve been very focused on optimizing our cost structure. So over the past three of four years, we’ve taken out $350 million to $400 million of overhead costs out of our cost structure. So in reality, as you look at how we’ve operated historically, there wasn’t a whole lot of extra cost left to reduce. Having said that, given the lower volume outlook for the current year and as we look at 2021 relative to our perspective a year or so ago, there’s opportunity from a footprint and resourcing standpoint. Obviously, we’re evaluating our overall manufacturing and engineering footprint. How we operate it. So there is some opportunity there. Having said that, at least for the foreseeable future there’s going to be incremental costs related to keeping our employees safe and operating with the safety protocols. So there’s - again, there's some opportunity to operate more efficiently. I’m not sure we would tell you that we learned anything new going through this process. I would say, we recognize that vehicle production is going to be operating at a lower level. Therefore, there are actions we need to take to reduce our overall cost structure. Joe, is there anything…
Joe Massaro:
I think that's well said, Joe, the only thing I’d add is, is I think the discipline and I’ll, sort of, call the muscle within the organization to manage costs, that –that’s the same discipline of muscle we used to take the 350. It’s the same discipline we use to manage Q2 and the austerity measures, and we’ll obviously continue to apply that to a lower volume scenario. They won’t necessarily be the same cost, but I’m confident the organization is very good on executing at these types of things I think as Q2 shows.
Kevin Clark:
Yes. I think the put - the comment Joe made about how well we operated in the second quarter, just to put it in perspective and provide you with a little bit more context. Through Q2, roughly 95% of our salaried workforce was working from home and when you look at it on average - on average, roughly 64% of our global hourly workforce was on TLO. So in periods of time where that was well north of 80%. And so the ability to ramp down production and then ramp back up production to be operating, as we talked about, at roughly 85% of manufacturing normalized capacity, to do that manage the supply chain and have zero customer interruptions is really a testament to how strong the team managed and operated during the quarter.
Joseph Spak:
Yes. Very impressive. Kevin, maybe just one more. During the quarter, I guess, really in the past month or so, we saw another high-profile automaker, make a big announcement about domain compute and new architecture. And it seems like most of the luxury players are now there and recognizing that is the future. It's clearly something you've talked about in the past. Are those conversations now starting to migrate down to some of the mass volume brands? Is cost still an issue and how scalable is it? Do you really think from sort of the high end to the low end and how do you see that market evolving?
Kevin Clark:
Yes. No. I think, Joe, to your point, there's a lot of momentum is really recognition that vehicle architecture needs to be reevaluated and the approach to how vehicles are architected and engineered needs to be changed. I guess, as we've communicated before, we're in discussions with, I don't know, 10 to 12 OEMs regarding smart vehicle architecture, our initiative programs they're working. You're right, there's more - or has been more momentum as it relates to the luxury OEMs, more – there are historically been more momentum with the luxury OEMs, I think more recently you are seeing more momentum with those who also operate in the mass market. We feel as though we have the solution that scales from what we can consider more traditional mass market vehicles up to the luxury segment. As we've disclosed previously, we have two advanced development programs or two programs, two advanced development programs with OEMs. There are actually three total programs that we believe learning’s from our perspective and from the OEM perspective. You'll see more adoption of the SVA approach across a broader mix of OEMs. And quite frankly, it's that whole - it's that trend of domain centralization that you're seeing in ADAS, that you're seeing in integrated cockpit controllers that you're really seeing across the entire vehicle. And our second generation ADAS solution, you'll see a significant step function move forward as it relates to how that system is architected, extraction of software from hardware and scalability of the system. So a lot of momentum.
Operator:
We'll take our next question from Brian Johnson with Barclays.
Brian Johnson:
Thank you. Just drill into some of the drivers over growth in market, in particular, the interplay between new product launches and then mix impacts. So should we kind of think forward, first of all, the 10% growth over market in this quarter, then kind of roll forward to the 80-ish percent for the next couple of years. A few questions. Kind of one, to the extent that OEMs defer programs, how does that factor in? Second, if the programs when they launched are smaller than when you put together your revenue forecast how much of a headwind could that be? And then slide under the more positive side, what is the impact of the option mix and take rates on your organic growth number? And are you seeing any evidence, certainly, when we talk to other suppliers, we'll hear things like big screens ADAS penetrating into all, but the most stripped-down version of mass market cars. So is that a tailwind?
Joe Massaro:
Yes, Brian, it's Joe. Maybe I'll start and then Kevin can jump in. So to start with the caveat and we've talked about this historically, but also a lot during the last couple of months, just given the shutdowns and restarts growth over markets going to lumpy over the next few quarters as production just comes up and what gets produced. With that said, I mean, we're still very confident in that long-term 6% to 8% growth based on everything we've seen. So when you think about - when you think about the quarter, things that drove some of the upside, obviously, in North America, there was a tendency to re-launch some of the higher content to trucks and SUVs first. So on relative to sort of restart production that was a favorable mix for us. I'd expect that to normalize out. We'll still have great content on those platforms. But as other platforms come back online in larger numbers, you could see that. Europe, very consistent with Q1. It was strength in active safety and electrification, high-voltage electrification. China was helped this quarter by some launch activity. So we saw a strong launch activity that we think will flatten out the back half of the year. We'll also have a comp, with some strong launch activities to the back of last year in China. So you’ll start to see that flatten out. Again, a little - again, a bit for the - just for that back half, and it's transactional. It's nothing long-term. As it relates to lower vehicle production, to date, we got asked this question a lot over the past two years. Really haven't seen the elasticity between our outgrowth and vehicle production. And by that, I mean a shrinking or a closing of the gap, right? We've really been able to stay within the forecasted range and in some cases to a little bit better. At this point, we have no reason to believe that changes. We think will hold up well even with lower vehicle production. Obviously, customer delays or launches -- launches at lower volumes can sort of certainly impact the total revenue dollars. But again, really haven't seen that type of elasticity. And I think we would agree and Kevin can jump in. We would agree with the comment around sort of the democratization of active safety and some of those technologies being looking to push some of those technologies down to lower models. Kevin?
Kevin Clark:
Yeah. No, I'd just add a couple of things. I think, Brian, to the extent we haven't seen anything, but to the extent we've heard discussion in and around delays as it relates to active safety, that would be in the Level 3 category. And the reality is those revenues are kind of 2025 and beyond. Active safety as a product helps OEMs sell. And then you have the added benefit of the tailwind of NCAP standards in Europe. And as you know, the AEB commitment here in North America, driving more demand for active safety, and it's something consumers want. As it relates to high-voltage, when you look at the cost pressure that the industry -- the incremental cost pressure that the industry is under if anything, we've seen a more -- a stronger commitment towards high-voltage and likely stronger demand from OEM customers as well as the consumers as they tend to increase the focus on costs coming down, battery costs coming down as well as performance vehicle going up. And then third, as it relates to vehicle connectivity, the industry, as you know, spending $50 billion a year on warranty costs, and one of the big solutions is OTA and vehicle connectivity. And with vehicle connectivity, those costs can be reduced significantly. So, that certainly is an area that we've seen a lot of traction over the last few quarters from an OEM standpoint, and expect that to continue.
Brian Johnson:
And sort of a housekeeping, but also a strategic just follow-up. Anything in the quarter for the outlook outside of -- like vehicle and commercial production. So I guess a couple of things. One, how did your non-vehicle markets hold up? And what's the outlook? And then second, do you have anything - a question you're probably getting in conferences approaching what you might call recurring revenue from software either in those industrial or vehicle businesses that maybe also held up differently than global production.
Joe Massaro:
Yes, Brian, also it's Joe. I'll start with the recent markets, the non-auto and CV. Again, small numbers, relatively speaking, but has actually held up quite well. As I mentioned in my prepared remarks, a number of those operations were designated essential businesses and remained open and have so therefore, didn't necessarily need to reopen or come back and have maintained themselves pretty well. I think you're – that part of the business, we're looking to – so to be flattish to prior year to down low single digits, depending on the market, depending on the product. So holding up on a relative basis quite well. I think as it relates to the ongoing or sort of the more software like revenue streams, obviously, that's something we're continuing to develop and to work on. There's nothing sort of significant of that nature in the actual results today.
Operator:
We'll take our next question from Mark Delaney with Goldman Sachs.
Mark Delaney:
Yes. Good morning. Thanks very much for taking the question.
Kevin Clark:
Good morning, Mark.
Mark Delaney:
I was hoping it better understand your comment, about potential production in 2021 and I think you talked about 77 million to 78 million units as a current planning assumption. Can you provide more context about how Aptiv is coming with that number? Is that primarily based on what your customers are telling you in terms of their forecast or is that more based on Aptiv zone assessments of the market and the third-party estimates and more things? Thank you.
Kevin Clark:
It's really - it's a mix of both, right? It is July, right? So there is a fair amount of time between now and the beginning of 2021. But just based on what we're seeing today in front of us based on dialogue with customers based on in, looking at kind of the macro picture in a view that we're going to be dealing with COVID for some period of time, that you're going to have some flare-ups of COVID in North America as well as Europe, that you look at GDP growth and unemployment, as we head into the back half of the year. That a portion of the strength in Q2, and – early Q3 production is about, rebuilding inventory levels that – all that's factored into our outlook, our early outlook for 2021 vehicle production.
Mark Delaney:
Okay. That's helpful. And then the company mentioned in the prepared comments that a part of the use of capital from the recent equity raise, could inorganic opportunities, so wanted to better understand how Aptiv’s M&A landscape maybe and what areas Aptiv maybe looking to do inorganic investments? Thank you.
Joe Massaro:
Yeah. Mark, it's Joe. I think the - very consistent with where we sort of left off in 2019. So really, bulk of the activity within SPS, always have a sort of a near to the ground for opportunities within ASUX, but they're just given the nature of that space and sort of how we’ve outdistanced ourselves sort of from a product development organically, they're a little bit fewer and far between. So mostly with an SPS, around the Engineered Components businesses, HellermannTyton connection system, bolt-ons, bolt-ons for Winchester, the non-auto interconnect business. As expected, the – we have seen some processes start back up. They tend to be domestic ones and they tend to be smaller ones at this point. Some of that tends to be just around the travel restrictions and getting from here to there. But we do have a couple of processes that it did start back up during the quarter. As I mentioned during the equity raise, we had a number of management presentations that were cancelled in that February, March timeframe. We had expected those to start back up. As you may know, within engineered components, those types of deals, a lot of them tend to be private equity owned. So there's an element of -- they're going to be for sale at some point. I think there are opportunities. Depending on the end markets, to the extent -- to the extent we can get enough information and get enough visibility around price discovery. We see some of those coming back in the back half of the year.
Operator:
We'll take our next question from Armintas Sinkevicius with Morgan Stanley.
Armintas Sinkevicius:
Great. Good morning. Thank you for taking my question.
Kevin Clark:
Good morning.
Armintas Sinkevicius:
Just wanted to dive in a bit into the growth over market for signal and power. As we think about it going forward, in New York City, at least, the skies have never been clear for as long as I've lived here. And it's hard to imagine that we go backwards here. So - and then also, there's a proposal in California to accelerate EV adoption amongst Lyft and Uber. Lyft has promised to go electric by 2030. How do you think about, the upside potential here for Signal & Power as we move forward? Have you seen any pickup? Or is it a bit muted just given that we're in a COVID environment and everyone's just trying to get through first before pushing ahead with such initiatives?
Joe Massaro:
Day to day, right? I think the industry we think the industry is trying to push really and get back on track. But starting, quite frankly, starting last year - or quite frankly, the last couple of years, incremental focus on high-voltage electrification as a propulsion solution, most of that coming out of Europe and out of Asia Pacific. The one item that maybe COVID has helped accelerate, is the cost pressure associated with developing solutions, Ice solutions as well as electrified solutions. And it appears to be more OEMs seem to be just given capital constraint, more committed on how do we, focus on the development of technology in one area versus two areas. From a cost-effective - from a cost management or capital management standpoint which we believe will ultimately translate into continued acceleration of high-voltage adoption. When you look at what's being talked about, at least as it relates to the election here in the US and the platforms of some of the candidates clearly more support of electrified vehicles whether that's funding of technology or incentives for consumers to buy electrified vehicles. And then we tell you the last tailwind related to high-voltage is, quite frankly, consumer demand. I mean, we did a survey recently. Survey respondents over half said they would entertain buying a high-voltage vehicle and 25% of the respondents said that they would buy a high-voltage or battery electric vehicle as their next vehicle purchase. So as you can imagine, that's quite a switch from three years ago. So our view is high-voltage is a real strong tailwind for our SPS segment. And as Joe has taken you through the numbers in the past, content in a high-voltage vehicle is quite that on a traditional internal combustion engine vehicle. So it's unit and content opportunity.
Armintas Sinkevicius:
Okay. And just maybe a follow-up. What would have to happen for S&PS to grow, not mid single-digits, but high single-digits, say, next year? What are some of the pieces that would really have to fall into place or is that a bit of a stretch?
Joe Massaro:
Yes. I would say based on everything going in, we're certainly not going to speak to 2021, I meant this at this point. But I -- we're very comfortable with the growth profile we've laid out for S&PS, as Kevin mentioned, there's clearly some upside from the high-voltage business. Our Connection Systems business, whether it's on the auto or on the non-auto side, continues to do quite well as does HellermannTyton. But I think to get to that level, you need to be firing on all cylinders, sort of, all the time, and we certainly never assume that's going to be the case. But very comfortable the growth profile we've laid out that is a great business. It's performing well on the top-line as well as the operating performance. So certainly expect that to continue even in a weaker environment 2021.
Kevin Clark:
Yes. I think one of the points that Joe and I have tried to articulate in our prepared comments is, clearly, 2020 is challenged given COVID. Clearly, the industry is improving, but our view is it's a slow-paced recovery that impacts 2021. But as it relates to our technology and how we're positioned and the tailwinds related to the industry and where we sit from a product portfolio standpoint, where we sit from a global footprint standpoint, we're perfectly positioned, and that all comes together, certainly in the out years. And we hope it comes back quite frankly sooner. But when you think about overall vehicle mix, high-voltage Level 2+, Level 3 adoption of things like Aptiv safety, all vehicles having OTA that we can have more vehicle connectivity, that's a couple of years out.
Operator:
We'll take our next question from Dan Levy with Credit Suisse.
Dan Levy:
Hi.
Kevin Clark:
Hi, Dan.
Dan Levy:
Good morning. Thank you. Hi. First, just wanted to ask a question on the outgrowth and as it relates to the launch cadence. And I know you mentioned it sounds like there are some delays here, but is it still the case that the launch cadence is still heavily levered to China? And if China is -- and I guess that we all have our own outlook, but if China is the relatively outperforming region globally, why not provide a stronger outgrowth outlook or is it just conservatism?
Kevin Clark:
I'd say our launch activity is pretty balanced globally, right? We're launching a number of active safety and high-voltage products in Europe. Obviously, working through the T1XX SUV launch in North America now. So I think it's fairly balanced. It's -- our launch activity pre-COVID was always lumpy, right? You go into these big launches and you ultimately level off on a sequential basis and lap on a year-over-year basis. So that's sort of -- that cadence is continuing. But that's a very consistent story. It's already been in the past and very balanced. Our regions, certainly not quite one-third, one-third, one-third but roughly in that direction. The bookings have been roughly in that direction. And as a result, the launch activity, again, it can change over time as big programs launch in different places, but it's a fairly consistent level of activity, it just sort of cycles through. We've got a lot of launches in China in Q2. We had a lot of launches in the back half of last year in China. So you're going to see some sequential sort of stabilization and a little bit of lapping year-over-year. And again, as we've talked about, that growth over market, while we think it's important as a sort of a full year metric and a guidepost for thinking about the out years, it often doesn't shoot straight in a particular quarter. And given all the disruptions to production over the past five months, it's going back to China shutdowns. It's just -- it's hard to expected to shoot straight every quarter, and I think it will be like that for the next few quarters.
Dan Levy:
Okay. Thank you. That's helpful. Just wanted to follow-up with a question about active safety. Just more broadly, the market dynamic here. On one hand, obviously, you've seen a lot of momentum, and you seem to be winning the awards, and it's reflected in the bookings. But if we look at the announcement by Ford a week ago or a couple of weeks ago in which seems to be that they're doing more work directly with Mobileye, Mobileye doing the Sensor Fusion, which is typically something that would have been done by the Tier 1. It seems like the typical relationship where Tier 2 supplies in the Tier 1, Tier 1 packages everything and then give it plug-and-play to the OEM that relationship isn't holding anymore. So maybe you could help us reconcile these two data points. On one hand, you seem to be getting a lot of momentum at the same time, the typical relationship of the Tier 2 to the Tier 1 is shifting a bit. And can you just also comment on your margin trajectory in active safety, if that's still at corporate average?
Kevin Clark:
Sure. So it's Kevin. Why don't I - so I don't know all the specifics about the mobile announcement. There's clearly a trend from an industry standpoint to head towards platforms towards scalable platforms. Based on what we're aware of, the relationship between various providers of perception systems really hasn't changed. Sometimes that kind of tracking goes to the Tier 1, sometimes it goes directly to the OEM. I can tell you with respect to the platforms that we're on, we do all the sensor fusion, right. So it's our radar solution. It's our camera. There's a vision solution from a provider. And as you know, we have a great relationship with Mobileye, and they're our vision provider. We do all the sensor fusion in our compute platform we provide the ADAS controller. So from our perspective, in the particular, for example, you're talking about based on what we know, and we feel like we know it pretty well, there's really no change. And you'll see periodic situations where the OEM for probably, quite frankly, for purchasing leverage decides that they want to contract directly with the provider and the Tier 1 continues to do the integration. Some Tier 1s will bring additional capabilities, whether it's feature development, perception system development, do that integration, do that center fusion so that the entire ADAS system operates. And that's clearly how we operate and no change in the model that we're selling to customers and that we're operating under
Joe Massaro:
Yes. And Dan, real quickly just the margin question, from our perspective, no longer-term changes in our margin expectations for active safety or the ASUX segment. Clearly, 2020 is a very disruptive here. When you think of the segment being down 129% on EBITDA in the quarter, obviously, that goes all the way down to the product lines, right? That's where those costs are. So, but that high single-digit, low double-digit EBIT profitability we were talking about in prior years and expecting in 2020 the long-term view of that has not changed.
Operator:
We'll take our next question from John Murphy with Bank of America.
John Murphy:
Good morning, guys. I just wanted to clarify one thing on the 85% cap number you're talking about. Is that a staff number? Was that right at the -- or what exactly does that mean? Was that right at the end of the quarter? And if we think about going forward, the market numbers you're talking about, increasing about 10% next year, it kind of seems like on a staffed capacity basis, you won't need to add a lot of cost back and everything that comes in will be variable purchased raws or processed parts purchases. So that incrementals could be significantly higher going forward. I just want to make sure I understand that what that 85% means that you're referring to?
Joe Massaro:
Yes, John, it's Joe. I think it's labor capacity. It's amount of heads we brought back in. I mentioned sort of that 55,000 folks coming back into Mexico. Obviously, there's some -- and we're be very cautious at this point, not going to give 2021 thoughts around incrementals and such, there's a lot of moving pieces. But have those folks back in, obviously, there's some inefficiencies around restart, there's some inefficiencies around operating with COVID and the environment. With that said, I think the restart is going very well, all things considered. Where we need to add costs or take costs out going into 2021 is really going to be dependent on schedules by region and customers by region, right? It's - you can sort of sit there and say, okay, if you're at 85%, you only think you're up 10%. That sounds like it's leverageable. He's going to be a little bit of where that is and on what product lines and with what customers before you can sort of balance that all out. So there's obviously a lot of work to do for us, and we'll work through it over the next four to five months here and working through where those moving pieces are and where they are going to come from.
John Murphy:
But I mean, if we're looking at a market that you have down 25% year-over-year and you're having only up 10% next year. I mean, I've got to imagine calling back a lot of a lot of heads above and beyond what you've done at this 85% level is probably not going to be necessary, I know there are pockets in this regions and there will be some ebbs and flows of slight mismatches. But I mean, it seems like you got the people back you need for the most part through the end of next if the market shakes out the way that you're talking about? I know there's puts and takes. But I mean, is that a fair statement?
Joe Massaro:
Yes, John, but I think that 85% relates really to kind of late Q2. And if you look at kind of sequential from Q2 to Q3 to Q4, right, you do see some ramp-up of production. So you'll see us bring back some additional employees.
Operator:
And we'll take our next question from Chris McNally with Evercore ISI.
Chris McNally:
Thanks so much team. One question on margins and then one on second half growth. So on this -- the margins -- and Joe, thanks for the incremental margin comment on second half. But maybe if we can think about it a little bit differently because theoretically production is only down 10%, you have very high content per vehicle growth, the loss revenue could be actually a pretty small number. You talked about inefficiencies. Could you sort of put a dollar amount on the extra cost that is being burdened every quarter, at least in the next two quarters from lower efficiencies? Then that way we can kind of run a more normalized down 20% decremental and then just add a number for that lost productivity?
Joe Massaro:
Yes. No, Chris, it's still a little bit of early days for that, right? Again, you've got to remember, we've been up and running for 3.5 weeks to four weeks in the quarter with in June with that type of activity. So it's a little earlier for that. Again, my sense of what we're looking at and certainly what we're working towards or working to do better would be my earlier comment is to be at Q1 with probably a couple of points of improvement, Q1 decrementals with a couple of points of improvement, assuming no shutdowns because we were shut down for a period of time in China during Q1 and that obviously adds to pretty significantly to the decremental. So that's apart from the direct cost. As I mentioned to Dan's question, we're - can see $30 million to $35 million of cost per quarter direct costs and then sort of overcoming that to get back out of that sort of Q1 decremental with maybe a little bit of help from not being shut down. And it's just -- also we're working through all of that, but you need -- you need to run, you need to run consistently, you need some scheduled normalization here to be able to work through that. And that's what we'll do for 2021. And that will obviously again, as I mentioned, we're very confident in our ability to take a look at our cost structure and figure out how to do better. I think you've just seen us do over the last couple of years. And obviously, Q2 is a bit of a testament to that as well. And we just need some time to work through that as we get into 2021.
Chris McNally:
Okay. That makes sense. And then the second question is around the outgrowth in second half. You talked about the 6% to 8% corridor being reiterated. I think first half it's something like 12%. So it kind of implies a lower second half. Should we just take that as your normal sort of conservatism? Maybe we don't have the visibility on all the pushouts or is there anything about it's a very tough calculation to do outgrowth given the weighted average. Any just detail around why second half maybe a little bit less strong than first half?
Joe Massaro:
Yeah, I think there is some sort of good old-fashioned lapping launches, so sort of the normal and then the other thing, I think, as I've mentioned a couple of times now. You're just going to see as production of various platforms comes back at different times. That's just going to be a very choppy calculation. But from what we're looking at, we've had some strong launch activity back half of last year. We've had some good launch activity. Even in China in Q2 and some of that's going to sort of flatten out and lap is really what's driving it. And that's -- there's some of that that's going to be driven by COVID, but that's also just the way we've historically worked over the past number of years. It's just -- it's not a perfect calculation every quarter.
Operator:
And we'll take our last question from Emmanuel Rosner with Deutsche Bank.
Emmanuel Rosner:
Yeah, thanks for squeezing me in. Good morning.
Kevin Clark:
Good morning.
Emmanuel Rosner:
So just a quick follow-up on the second half, I guess, growth over the market. When you did the capital raise, I think one of the goals or opportunities, I guess, was the ability to win away some business from competitors that automakers essentially approach you towards that. Is that the sort of -- can you give us an update maybe on how that's been going? And is that sort of things that could materialize in sort of second half bookings or would that be later?
Kevin Clark:
Hi Emmanuel. It’s Kevin. So no, so are we seeing -- does the opportunity remain absolutely. I would say, given the pressure on the supply chain, both just logistically from a capability standpoint as well as cost. OEMs seem to be much more focused on strong global capabilities as well as ability to scale and the opportunity to leverage platforms and so we're in the midst of a number of discussions about those opportunities. But those are not opportunities where the revenue switch gets flipped in a quarter or two, right? It's a year or two years, it's a year would be short -- very, very short term. More normally, it's a couple of years out from a revenue opportunity.
Emmanuel Rosner:
Okay. And for the bookings as well?
Kevin Clark:
The booking opportunity is near-term. The revenue – I though you are talking about revenue. The revenue opportunity is, in reality, a couple of years out, even if it's an existing program that's under production. Because the reality is activity needs to be transitioned. Manufacturing needs to be transitioned. Supply chain needs to be changed. And obviously, OEMs are very sensitive to any risk of disruption. So that takes some amount of time. But certainly, the bookings opportunities are there. First half bookings, just given COVID-19, when you look at the level of opportunities, at least since I've been around here, probably the lowest that we've seen, the booking opportunity to the extent they don't shift out of the back half of the year are at much higher levels than what they've been previously. I think it's fair to assume, though, just given dealing with COVID that remains in the environment. There's some inefficiencies. So there will be some slight shifting. We've talked about it in the past being anywhere between a couple of months to a quarter, maybe two. But the opportunities there are real.
Emmanuel Rosner:
Okay. That's helpful. And then just on the incrementals. I know you haven't commented in much detail, but 2021, yes. I think short conferences during the quarter, you sort of suggest that as sales and volume recover the incrementals could be towards sort of like the just normal level and not higher? Is that still the – is that still the thinking?
Kevin Clark:
Yes, Emmanuel, listen, I think the general takeaway from my perspective at least, is the focus on our – keeping our financial framework intact. And I know we've commented on that 20% to 22%. That's historically what we've seen. We do believe we'll see that go forward. And then there's a number of other things that are happening in the world, right, around PPE and shutdowns if COVID comes back and again, I think it’s just very early days to be speculating on those types of things. So I think as you saw with Q2 and hitting that basically breakeven when you think about 35 million of PPE and a negative $49 million EBITDA number. And we've talked for two or three years now about getting our breakeven EBITDA down to a 40% decline in revenue. And I think we're – that was part of our framework we’re effectively there, so we'll work hard to offset what can be offset. But I think that's – I tend to stick to the framework when I think about the business.
Elena Rosman:
Well, thank you, everyone, for your participation on today's call. I do want to – now I turn it over to Kevin Clark for his closing remarks.
Kevin Clark:
Great. Thank you, everyone. We – I appreciate you attending our call. We hope everyone stays safe, okay? Take care.
Joe Massaro:
Thank you.
Operator:
This concludes today's call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Good day. My name is Mary and I will be your conference operator today. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speakers' remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session. Thank you. Elena Rosman, Aptiv's Vice President of Investor Relations, you may begin your conference.
Elena Rosman:
Thank you, Mary. Good morning and thank you to everyone for joining Aptiv's first quarter 2020 earnings conference call. To follow along with today's presentation, our slides can be found at ir.aptiv.com. Today's review of our actual financials exclude restructuring and other special items and will address the continuing operations of Aptiv. The reconciliations between GAAP and non-GAAP measures for our Q1 financials are included in the back of today's presentation and the earnings press release. Turning to the next slide. Please see our disclosure on forward-looking statements, which reflect Aptiv's current view of future financial performance which may be materially different from our actual performance for reasons that we cite in our Form 10-K and other SEC filings, including uncertainties posed by the COVID-19 pandemic and the difficulty in predicting its future course and impact on the global economy. Joining us today will be Kevin Clark, Aptiv's President and CEO; and Joe Massaro, CFO and Senior Vice President. Kevin will provide a strategic update on the business and then Joe will cover the financials in more detail. With that, I'd like to turn the call over to Kevin Clark.
Kevin Clark:
Thank you, Elena. Good morning, everyone. Before I begin, I'd like to first express my hope that everyone listening is staying safe and healthy, along with their family, friends and colleagues amidst the current COVID-19 crisis. Top of mind these days is how our industry and Aptiv are positioned in this much more challenging environment, which Joe and I will attempt to address over the course of today's call. To kick things off, I'd like to start by thanking our 160,000 Aptiv team members globally for their dedication and efforts to ensure the health and safety of our employees and their continued flawless execution for our customers, all while executing additional initiatives to ensure the preservation of our financial strength. It's due to their collective efforts that we're so well positioned to weather this storm. Their unwavering support and commitment to do the right thing the right way have positioned Aptiv to be an even stronger company once this crisis is over. Turning to slide 4. The deliberate actions we've taken over the last few years to transform Aptiv into a global technology company have better positioned us to respond and adapt in this more fluid environment. These actions include optimizing our portfolio of market-relevant technologies to enable a safer, greener, more connected future mobility; exiting lower growth commodity product lines including thermal and mechatronics; and further increasing our focus on the brain and nervous system of the vehicle, continuing to improve our industry-leading cost structure generating roughly $350 million in overhead savings over the last five years, and reinvesting those savings to further strengthen our capabilities in high-growth areas, including active safety, high-voltage electrification, and vehicle connectivity. We deliberately improved our revenue diversification across regions, across our customers, vehicle platforms, and end markets. As we've executed our strategic initiatives, we've improved our ability to perform through cycle with more sustainable cash flows, which is translated into a stronger balance sheet and a solid investment-grade credit rating. These actions better position Aptiv to navigate the significant uncertainty we're now facing. Moving to slide 5, the first quarter proved to be much more challenging than we anticipated coming into the year. Revenues decreased 7% to $3.2 billion in a market that was down 24% overall or 20% on an Aptiv weighted market basis. EBITDA and operating income totaled $411 million and $231 million respectively, and earnings per share totaled $0.68 after adjusting out the gain associated with the completion of the automated driving joint venture with Hyundai. Looking at the regions, vehicle production was down 48% in China during the quarter, reflecting year-over-year declines of 80% in February and 50% in March. As China's economic activity continued to improve, the recovery in vehicle production has been relatively slow as dealer inventories remain high and retail demand is slowly improving. Vehicle production declined 11% in North America and 20% in Europe, reflecting the early impact of customer shutdowns beginning in mid-March. While COVID-19 had a significant impact on global vehicle production in the first quarter, the complete shutdown of OEM operations in both North America and Europe and the current timetable for the restart and ramp up activities means the impact on the second quarter will be much more severe and is now estimated to be down over 50% from the prior year. All Aptiv sites in China are currently operating, albeit at levels which are below normal capacity, with some sites in Europe now restarting production and a few sites in North America operating to support essential business needs. Although we currently lack clear visibility of the exact timing and pace of restarts in North America and Europe, we are prepared to safely ramp up in accordance with customer schedules and government approvals. Moving to slide 6, the proactive steps we've taken to protect our employees, deliver for our customers, reduce expenses and conserve capital has put us on an even stronger footing to deal with this current crisis. After initially seeing the effect of COVID-19 on our employees, suppliers, and customers in China, we implemented robust measures. We immediately established a global crisis management team with regional and functional representatives across our businesses that continue to meet daily to monitor the situation, exchange information, and manage every aspect related to this crisis. We halted all global travel and restricted visitors from entering our facilities. In response to customer shutdowns and government restrictions, we closed manufacturing facilities, technical centers, and administrative offices. We implemented austerity measures to further reduce our cost structure and preserve our financial health, including significant cuts in executive pay, suspended 401(k) matches in the US, as well as planned salary wage increases globally, implemented furloughs and temporary layoffs for our salaried and hourly employees in line with customer closures, and reduced capital expenditures and investment in working capital while eliminating all discretionary spending. We also took a series of actions to further enhance the company's liquidity. These included drawing down all remaining amounts on our $2 billion revolving credit facility and suspending our $225 million annual dividend. These actions represent an incremental $600 million of annualized cash generation actions that allow us to continue our planned investments in advanced technologies, enhancing the long-term opportunities for our employees, our customers, and our shareholders. Further, while our sites have always had robust safety measures in place in light of COVID-19, we've implemented additional safety protocols to ensure we protect our employees and deliver for our customers as operations resume. We've deployed these safe operation protocols across all of our facilities, which I'll highlight in greater detail on the next slide. Moving to slide 7, protecting the health and wellbeing of Aptiv employees, customers, suppliers, and the communities where we operate is our top priority. We work closely with medical and employee health and safety experts, government and union representatives, and our OEM customers and supplier partners to expand and build upon the Aptiv safe operations protocol to minimize risk to our workforce. These protocols are based on information and guidance from the World Health Organization, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and various other government agencies, and are now up and running in all of our facilities. Aptiv's strict safety measures include the cleaning and disinfection of sites multiple times per shift, conducting daily health and risk screenings for all employees and visitors, checking employee temperatures prior to entering buses and facilities, ensuring social distancing at all work areas, providing personal protective equipment for all employees and visitors, as well as utilizing physical barriers where necessary, and executing immediate response plans for suspected COVID-19 cases. As we've implemented the global COVID-19 pandemic plan across our business, we're also sharing our learnings with the entire ecosystem, which has been made available on our website. Additionally, as one of the largest employers in the communities in which we operate, we're doing our part in supporting local hospitals by supplying personal protective equipment. And we're helping our customers produce critical equipment, with components for ambulances, diagnostic equipment and ventilators. These are just a few of the many initiatives our team has undertaken to combat this crisis. Collaboration at all levels is more important than ever, and thus come together to ensure consistent coordination, communication, execution, and transform how we work day to day. Turning to slide 8, as I mentioned previously, the impact of COVID-19 on global vehicle production has been more sudden and severe than any recession scenario we've previously planned for. What started as extended production downtime in China after January's Lunar New Year evolved into complete shutdowns in Europe and the Americas beginning in mid-March. As we sit here today, the situation is very fluid. Visibility of the timing and pace of restarts remains very low. We're also concerned about underlying consumer demand, taking into account the record unemployment levels, decreased personal income and declining consumer sentiment. As a result of these factors, we expect vehicle production to decline in the range of 20% to 30% in 2020, with a view that the current list of puts and takes tilts the scale closer to 30% than 20%. Our outlook reflects a trough in the second quarter, with production declining over 50% and a slow ramp up in the second half of the year. With extensive learnings from China and now some restarts in Europe and the Americas, we've gained meaningful experience in operating with our safe start protocols at low volumes. More meaningful production restarts in Europe and North America are expected to begin in mid-May, and will be slow and phased. We believe the impact of COVID-19 will be with us for some time. And as a result, we anticipate operational inefficiencies to continue from the implementation of the incremental safety measures and supply chain disruptions, given the breadth of customer and supplier shutdowns globally. As such, we're not expecting a rapid recovery in global vehicle production and remain cautious as we begin our planning for post 2020. Turning to slide 9, it's in our culture to proactively manage change, innovate through disruption and be resilient in the face of challenges. We believe that the secular megatrends are now as important as ever. And as a result, we continue to fully fund investments and strategic growth initiatives, including advanced technology, enabling safer, greener and more connected mobility. These include investments in active safety, high voltage electrification, smart vehicle architecture and vehicle connectivity. In the first quarter, we continued to see important validation that our competitive moat is expanding and the long-term trends remain intact. New business bookings totaled $2.8 billion, reflecting the near-term global impact of COVID-19. We continue to expect rapid growth in electrified vehicle platforms, driven by more stringent CO2 regulations and the declining total cost of ownership. We had over $500 million of high voltage bookings in the first quarter, including one with a major European OEM for an innovative long-range EV launching in 2022. We also saw continued strong launch activity in the quarter. Our approach to flexible satellite architecture has been a game changer for the industry, and our recent launch of an L2+ plus scalable ADAS solution with an industry-leading customer in China marks the first in a series of launches with four other OEMs over the next 18 months. We also launched our best-in-class, integrated cockpit controller with a major global OEM, which will be launched across all of their premium brands. This high performance controller, which is fully OTA capable, provides a fully reconfigurable cockpit, managing up to four high definition displays. Lastly, in March, we completed the formation of the Aptiv Hyundai autonomous driving joint venture, advancing our shared vision of making mobility more safe, green, connected and accessible. As a reminder, Hyundai contributed $1.6 billion of cash at the close, funding the operations of the joint venture for the next few years, and is providing $400 million of engineering and R&D services, making them a "technical partner" and strengthening Aptiv's existing foundation in automated driving solutions. Before I hand the call over to Joe, I'll wrap up on slide 10. As we've all seen, the impact of COVID-19 has been significant. To manage through the crisis, we remain laser focused on three key priorities. First, keeping our employees, their families and the communities we operate in safe. Second, flawlessly executing our current and future customer programs, while at the same time further differentiating our capabilities in safe, green and connected advanced technologies. And third, running our business efficiently and effectively to minimize expenses and maximize cash conservation. These priorities will preserve our financial health, improve the sustainability of our business and create value for our shareholders. While the way we operate day to day may not go back to normal as we knew it, we are committed to finding new ways of working that allow us to survive and thrive in the future. With that, I'll hand the call over to Joe to take us through the first quarter results in more detail.
Joseph Massaro:
Thanks, Kevin. And good morning, everyone. Starting with a recap of the first quarter financials on slide 11. As Kevin highlighted earlier, it was a very difficult start to the year. We began to see the impact of the COVID-19 outbreak at the time government restrictions were imposed across China in late January, lasting into March, at which time the customer shutdowns began across Europe and the Americas. Despite the volatility in the quarter, we had strong execution across our businesses. Revenues of $3.2 billion were down 7%, totaling 13% growth over market, as vehicle production declined 20%. Adjusted EBITDA and operating income were $411 million and $231 million respectively, with adjusted earnings per share of $0.68, which excludes the $1.4 billion gain associated with the closing of the autonomous driving joint venture with Hyundai. Lastly, operating cash flow was $161 million, including a net positive contribution from working capital and lower CapEx in the quarter. Looking at the first quarter revenues in more detail on slide 12. Content gains globally were more than offset by volume declines, largely associated with the adverse impact of the pandemic, price downs of approximately 1% and the unfavorable impact of FX and commodities. Excluding acquisitions, organic growth was down 8%, reflecting 12% growth over market. From a regional perspective, North America revenues were down 8%, representing 3 points of growth over market. We continue to see strength in Europe outgrowth, with revenues up 2%, representing 22 points of growth over market, driven by the continued uptick of several active safety and high voltage electrification programs. And lastly, in China, revenues declined 31%, reflecting 17 points of growth over market. Turning to slide 13, first quarter earnings reflect the lower sales volumes we saw in the quarter, as well as the operational inefficiencies associated with our facility shutdowns, primarily in China. As a result, adjusted EBITDA and operating income margins declined 180 and 250 basis points respectively in the quarter and EPS declined 35%. It is worth pointing out here that the majority of our costs are highly variable, the largest being material at roughly 50% of sales, which flexes quickly. While direct labor is also variable, it is more difficult to flex in the short term when production comes to an abrupt halt and restart schedules remain uncertain as employees are put on temporary layoffs or furloughs. To that end, we have implemented a number of short-term austerity measures to preserve liquidity and control costs, as Kevin highlighted earlier. Moving to the segments on the next slide. For the quarter, Advanced Safety and User Experience revenues declined 9%, reflecting 11 points of growth over market, driven primarily by growth in active safety, up 3% in the quarter. As a reminder, Q1 was the last quarter the automated driving spend will be consolidated in the ASUX segment. And going forward, we will recognize 50% of the joint venture's operating results in the equity income line. Excluding automated driving, ASUX EBITDA declined 42%, driven by the decline in vehicle production and the continued growth-related investments in the business. Consistent with prior communications, ASUX continues to make the necessary engineering investments to support the pipeline of new business pursuits and the volume of new program launches in 2020 and beyond. We will continue to evaluate this spend throughout the year as we gain more clarity on the timing of product launches and any potential for launch delays. Turning to Signal and Power Solutions, revenues were down 7% adjusted, reflecting 13 points of growth over market, driven by strong growth in our high voltage electrification product lines and the favorable benefit of Falmat, gabocom acquisitions, partially offset by the unfavorable impact of customer shutdowns in the quarter. EBITDA declined 12%, driven by the decline in global vehicle production, with an additional $12 million headwind from FX and commodities, primarily driven by the euro and RMB. Turning to slide 15, beginning in Q1, as we saw the impact of COVID-19 shutdowns on our Chinese operations, we began to take meaningful actions to preserve our liquidity and introduce certain interim austerity measures globally. As you'll see in the left side of the slide, we ended the first quarter with approximately $2.2 billion in total liquidity, which reflects the full drawdown of our revolver in March, ensuring we have ample cash on hand to manage through this crisis. This, coupled with the actions we have taken the last few years to strengthen our capital structure, maintain conservative leverage and extend the weighted average tenure of our debt, ensures we have sufficient liquidity into 2021. The austerity measures we implemented in the first quarter, which total over $600 million dollars in annualized cash savings, preserve our liquidity and enhance our financial health. In addition, we recently completed a one-year extension of our credit facility, deferring the maturity date from August of 2021 to August of 2022 for both the revolver and the term loan, with approximately 90% of the banking group participating. As part of the extension, we also negotiated an amendment to the agreement, which includes a covenant relief period that increases our financial leverage covenant to 4.5 times debt to EBITDA, up from 3.5 times through the second quarter of 2021 and include certain restrictions with respect to capital allocation during this period. As we look forward, given the steepness of vehicle production declines expected in the second quarter, down over 50%, we expect adjusted EBITDA losses that are order of magnitude in the range of $150 million to $200 million in the second quarter. We continue to take the necessary actions to minimize the impact of the eight to nine weeks of lost vehicle production in Europe and North America, and we believe we are well positioned to navigate the uncertain environment once operations restart. We will resume providing forward-looking guidance when we have improved visibility on the pace of vehicle production restarts, capacity utilization, and consumer demand. With that, I'd like to hand the call back to Kevin for his closing remarks.
Kevin Clark:
Thanks, Joe. Let me wrap up on slide 16 before opening up for Q&A. The first quarter of 2020 proved very challenging as the industry has met with unprecedented declines in vehicle production, namely in China. Now, with Europe and North America shutdowns continuing into May, we expect the second quarter to be even more difficult, as Joe just highlighted. Fortunately, we entered this crisis with a market-relevant product portfolio of flexible business model and a strong balance sheet. And as a result, we're in a strong position to weather this storm. The additional actions we're taking puts us on an even stronger footing when we exit this crisis. My confidence in Aptiv and our ability to deliver sustainable value creation is underpinned by the dedication and commitment of our people, our greatest asset. I'd like to restate how proud I am of our 160,000 employees who, through all of these challenges, have continued to think and act like owners, and operate as one team to deliver safely for our customers and our shareholders. Looking ahead, I'm confident we'll emerge from this crisis more unified in our mission, in a stronger competitive position, and financially more resilient. With that, let's open up the line for Q&A.
Operator:
Thank you. [Operator Instructions]. And we can take our first question from Itay Michaeli of Citigroup. Please go ahead.
Itay Michaeli:
Great. Thank you. Good morning, everyone.
Kevin Clark:
Good morning.
Itay Michaeli:
Joe, I was hoping you could speak a bit more about – thanks for the color on the EBITDA in Q2. I was hoping you could give us a few more parameters on the cash flow side, particularly around CapEx and working capital. And I’m thinking prospectively in the second half of the year, if you can maybe just talk about various breakeven levels maybe where you are in China right now as well as just components of the cash savings that you announced today that are incremental to Q1.
Joseph Massaro:
Yeah. I won't be giving a lot of specifics, Itay, just given the lack of visibility. As I said in my prepared remarks, we're comfortable – we've looked at a number of scenarios and are comfortable certainly from a liquidity perspective. We're well positioned into 2021. As it relates to Q2, I think you could think of the sort of – we'll be negative cash flow. It's certainly within the EBITDA range that I talked about. And then what I'd call almost maybe a like amount as it relates to investment in working capital. We had a very favorable working capital quarter in Q1. As the plants came down, we started shutting things off fairly quickly. The team did a good job on that. I would expect that to ramp up and be a net investment in Q2.
Itay Michaeli:
Great. That's helpful, Joe. And then, maybe going back to bookings – maybe for Kevin – could you talk about how much of Q1 was tied to timing? Where you're seeing your win rates? And are you seeing potential market share gain opportunities across the supply chain? If you can comment there, that would be helpful.
Kevin Clark:
Yes. Listen, I think Q1 bookings, just given the amount of uncertainty and the amount of activity from an OEM standpoint, quite frankly, the number of people who were working from home or were on TLO or furlough across our customer base and the supply base, I think Q1 isn't really a normal quarter. We'll see how Q2 and the balance of the year plays out. As it relates to opportunity to pick up market share, our view is – and we'll look at timing – that's our rationale for continuing to invest in some of the advanced technologies that we talked about, whether it's active safety, smart vehicle architecture, so on and so forth. So, we believe there could be an opportunity there. But near-term, just given the lack of visibility and what the industry is going through, it's hard to be precise.
Operator:
And we can now take our next question from Joseph Spak, RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead.
Joseph Spak:
Thank you. Good morning. Joe, I was wondering if you could give us an update on your Mexico operations, some of the shelter-in-place policies there and how you're dealing with that as sort of North America production starts to -- looks to restart and how it will impact your operations in the second quarter?
Kevin Clark:
Yeah, maybe I'll start Joe, and you can comment. So, we have close to 30 manufacturing facilities in Mexico. For all intents and purposes, since mid-March, they've been shut down. There have been a few facilities that have been operating to provide product to essential businesses or businesses deemed essential by the Mexican government. We now have employees in all those facilities prepping for relaunch of production for our North American or US customers. So, all of those locations have people in place implementing the safe restart protocols as well as ensuring we're ready to start production once vehicle production schedules start to increase. There are a few of those facilities that are running at, I would say, very, very low capacity levels that again have been providing product to essential businesses and are starting to provide product to some of the OEMs in North America, Joe.
Joseph Spak:
The second question I guess, Kevin, one of the things we've heard from some other companies is that there may have been some element of a little bit of a prebuy or inventory build towards the end of the first quarter as US kept shipping product, but maybe the production didn't occur. Did you see any evidence of that in your business?
Joseph Massaro:
Well, Joe, it's Joe. We didn't. We worked very hard to be aligned with our customers. When they started winding down production or shutdown, we got out quick, didn't want to be running facilities that, obviously, had no place to ship to. So, we did not see that to be honest with you. Have heard that as others reported, but we did not experience that in any meaningful way in the business.
Joseph Spak:
Okay, thank you.
Operator:
And we can now take our next question from Armintas Sinkevicius of Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.
Armintas Sinkevicius:
Great. Good morning. Thank you for taking the question. I wanted to drill in a little bit into the 13% growth over market at Signal and Power. When we look at the CV and industrial end market, that's sort of in line with last quarter. The high voltage performed better, but it really looks like a lot of the benefits came from engineered components and electrical distribution systems. Maybe you could talk about what drove some of that strength during the quarter.
Kevin Clark:
It's a good question. Obviously, within that engineered component, we have HellermannTyton, which is about 50% auto. So, you've got their industrial business as well as Winchester and the mil/aero that effectively stayed operating throughout the balance of the quarter. And actually, in some cases, actually saw some uptick in revenue around certain industries. So, that helped drive the – that really helped drive the outgrowth in Signal and Power at this point. Again, I think on top of what are the normal trends that Kevin referenced of, increased high voltage and just overall that business has continued to see strong content growth just given its size and scale.
Armintas Sinkevicius:
Got it. And then, around your comments for China, the weekly data seemed to suggest that sales in April were down about 4% year over year. So, the recovery appears to be pretty decent on the demand side. What are you seeing that's perhaps different?
Kevin Clark:
Yeah. Maybe we're looking at different data. Our data for the end of April is retail sales down 18%. Listen, the market in China is improving. We would agree that. We're seeing that. However, from our perspective, consumer demand, and certainly, vehicle production isn't at levels that it was at last year. So, from a year-over-year standpoint, vehicle production continues to be down. So, it's something we monitor closely. It's something that we hope we see continued strengthening. We've not seen any sort of significant government incentive plans put in place to really drive incremental demand. But it's something that we'll watch very, very closely.
Armintas Sinkevicius:
Great. Thank you for taking the questions.
Operator:
And we can now take our next question from Brian Johnson of Barclays. Please go ahead.
Brian Johnson:
Yeah, two questions. Just a quick housekeeping and then kind of more out midterm outlook. Decremental margins are obviously higher in ASUX and SPS. You mentioned engineering spend. Any way to think about decremental margins going into 2Q?
Kevin Clark:
We've talked really since the beginning of all of this. We're running a little higher than our normal, which would – that sort of 25% to 30%, 35% range is a little bit over 40%. So, I'd continue to use that sort of 40% plus as I thought about q2, partly – and it's per my prepared comments. The balance at the moment is – you send people out on TLO or furlough. There's still some cost associated with those employees as we wait to gauge the timing of the restart and the level of the restarts. In order to carry that workforce is really why we ran very hard at the other austerity measures. But that does wind up in a higher decremental in the short term.
Brian Johnson:
Okay. Second question is what you're thinking about launch activity as we go into second half and even 2021? I don't know if you've had good conversations with your OEMs or they're just scrambling to restart and they are not ready for this conversation yet. But we have heard some talk of – at least some of the 2021 new launches being pushed out – some of the 2020 launches having multiple week delays. And just wondering how you think about, A, that risk and, B, what it would do to your growth over market in each division.
Kevin Clark:
Yeah. It's a good question. I'd say that the dialogue with customers has been extensive. I think, quite frankly, from an industry standpoint, both from a customer on down to supply base, there's been a lot of communication over communication. We've seen some shifting of launch timing based on some of the government requirements with respect to stay in place and other issues, whether it's in the US, Europe or China. So, some shifting. Nothing major. Some programs will shift out of 2020 into 2021, but that'll be based off of when they were originally scheduled to be launched in 2020. Have not seen any real cancellation of programs at this point in time. Have seen shifting schedules. So, I would say, from a schedule standpoint, it has been very fluid. I think there was a desire for OEMs in Europe and in the US to be launching late-April or earlier in May and we've seen those schedules shift out. But the supply chain is adjusting to it. And again, nothing major. From an overall launch activity, back half, we have even adjusted for the shifting schedules a significant amount of activity. It's especially true in the ASUX business. I think critical launch activity is up over 50% back half of this year versus the same period last year. A number of those programs relate to the advanced ADAS programs that we just launched in China. So, they're programs that we're watching very, very closely and making sure we're in a position to execute flawlessly. I think that's one of the reasons when you talk about decrementals in ASUX, you're seeing the decremental levels of the investment in the technology, but also making sure we're positioned to launch well. But again, a lot of activity, a lot of shifting, nothing major, Brian, at this point in time and no cancellation of programs.
Brian Johnson:
Okay, thanks. Okay.
Operator:
And we can now take our next question from Emmanuel Rosner of Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.
Emmanuel Rosner :
Hi. Good morning, everybody.
Kevin Clark:
Good morning.
Emmanuel Rosner:
In your prepared remarks about AS and UX, I think you indicated you'll continue to evaluate, I think, engineering spending for potential launch delays and other activities. I know you just addressed the ADAS delays. Can you just elaborate a little bit more about how you're thinking about this spending and what sort of like bogeys would you be looking for to decide whether to dial this back or sort of like maintaining at the current levels? Obviously, this is a big factor in the magnitude of the decremental margins.
Kevin Clark:
Yeah. Emmanuel, it's a very fluid situation. So, again, very limited visibility. We think there are a number of areas that we have a competitive advantage. We think it's important that we can continue to invest in those areas. We have a number of those programs that we're launching over the next few quarters. So, executing those launches flawlessly is absolutely critical. We'll continue to evaluate the market and see what sort of or if there is any sort of rebound and what the back half of this year looks like and what 2021 looks like. And to the extent we need to calibrate or adjust, we will calibrate or adjust. I will tell you, dialogues with several customers where we're either on some of these advanced programs or we're doing advanced development programs in areas like smart vehicle architecture, active safety, a real push from those OEM customers to continue to invest because they're looking for opportunities down the line to reduce manufacturing cost right to enable more technology in the car more cost effectively, among other things. So, certainly, a push from the customer base to continue to invest. But that's something that we'll – again, we'll continue to look at based on our outlook for vehicle production.
Emmanuel Rosner:
That's helpful. And then, still on the topic, so looking at your megatrends. I was curious if you could share some of your longer-term thoughts on the potential for some of these trends to maybe slow down a bit. So, as I'm looking at your slide 9, you have active safety user experience, high voltage, automated driving. I'm particularly curious about high power voltage in regions where it's not mandated, like, let's say, the US, for example, and if there are any potential risk for some of these product rollout. And then, automated driving, sort of not just globally.
Kevin Clark:
Yeah, listen. Our view on the megatrends is they remain intact, that there remains a push and a demand for safer vehicles, for greener vehicles and there may be interruptions for a quarter or two, given macro situations. But there is still going to be demand from a customer standpoint, both end customer as well as OEM. As it relates specific to Aptiv, when you look at bookings in areas like high voltage electrification, 80% of those bookings are with European and Chinese OEMs. So, there is not a significant portion of that business that is in North America. Our view has been that, although there'll be demand for electrified vehicles in North America, it was certainly going to lag Europe and China. As it relates to active safety solutions, active safety has the highest rebuy rate of any option that's out there. Consumers buy vehicles with safety systems. They have a 95% re-buy rate. And you'll continue to see that demand, to the extent you have players like ourselves that can provide a platform that can integrate a number of different features, we feel that's more cost effective and, ultimately, that positions us well for that increased demand. As it relates to autonomous driving, we'll see. Again, our view has always been, the autonomous driving roadmap has been about the broad spectrum of active safety. How do you make vehicles safer? How do you support the driver? And ultimately, how do you eliminate the driver? And our joint venture partner, Hyundai, and ourselves are both of the view that we believe you're going to see autonomous vehicles, you're going to see them in consumer vehicles and mobility on demand that may be pushed out a year or two, we'll see how that plays out. But there are all sorts of other applications where autonomy can be applied, whether it's delivery vehicles, whether it's warehouse vehicles, you can go through laundry list. So, developing the technology remains as important as ever. We're positioned to basically commercially exploit the technology that's developed there and incorporate it into our active safety solutions, which we think is important. And we're using, quite frankly, the slowdown, some of the macroeconomic challenges as an opportunity to go out and hire resources from some of the companies that are out there that maybe aren't in the same financial position that our joint venture is in.
Emmanuel Rosner:
I really appreciate your thoughts.
Operator:
And we'll now take our next question from John Murphy with Bank of America. Please go ahead.
John Murphy:
Hi. Good morning, guys. It's great to hear from you. Kevin, maybe just a follow-up on what you were getting at in the answer to that last question. Obviously, there's been some concern that – particularly on the autonomous side, there's a little bit of overlap between what you're working on and what the automakers are working on. And that, for that reason, might sort of limit the growth on the autonomous side in what you provide to certain automakers. However, given the current crisis, everybody is focusing more and more on what the core competency is and trying to save money. So, it almost seems like this crisis is going to open the door for you to have greater wins with your autonomous technology and your offering there. I'm just curious. I know it's early days. What is your current opinion on that? And as you're over communicating to your customers, is this something you can kind of pitch or we could finally get the economies of scale that you can deliver to them on this technology?
Kevin Clark:
Yeah. Listen, John, I think our view on providing autonomous technology to OEMs, it remains. There's a group of OEMs that will continue to invest in the development of their own solution. And there will be others that buy some or all of it from third parties. And our view is that likely continues. If the economic challenges continue for a protracted period of time, probably those who were on the fence are more likely to buy it from someone else. So, that's something that we'll make sure the joint venture is positioned to do. But I would tell everybody, the big message from Joe and myself on this call is just lack of visibility. Short-term visibility right now is extremely limited. So, it's very, very difficult to draw any conclusions. And our real focus – and Joe and the team has done a great job on the cash conservation initiatives. Hey, cash is kind. And maintaining flexibility is critically important. And that's what we're really focused on doing. And at the same time, there are a couple of areas that are really, really important. One, we have to continue to serve our customers. We need to launch flawlessly. And then two, regardless of the slowdown, we have a strong view that the world is looking for safer, greener, more connected vehicles. And based on that – those are areas, as long as the macros allow us to and as we look at – here is where we can reduce costs to invest in those technologies, we will continue to invest in those technologies. To the extent the market gets to the point where it's a challenge for us to do that, then we'll revisit and we'll reprioritize.
John Murphy:
Okay. That's helpful. And then, kind of second question, as you're winding up in China and restarting and getting ready for the restart in Europe, I'm just curious, just going through that process, if there's any opportunities or issues with some of your suppliers. We kind of always think about the potential for M&A and integration perhaps sort of in parallel or horizontal. But is there anything you see that might be opportunistic for vertical integration as far as M&A potentially making yourself sort of stronger and more valuable over time, more to the vertical side as opposed to horizontal?
Joseph Massaro:
Yeah. John, it's Joe. I think at the moment, the work has been – really since Q1 in China and now globally, it's the health check and the readiness on the supply base. It's constant communication with them. We've sent surveys out. We're looking at their preparedness. We've shared our safe restart with them to make sure that they can operate the way we expect them to, the way our customers expect them to. So, I would say it's been a very tactical focus. And I would expect that to continue through the second quarter as things start back up. Certainly, dislocation creates opportunities. That's something we'd start to look at, but down the road. But, right now, we're focused on making sure we're staying in touch with the supply base and that we're we're ready to go when things start back up.
Kevin Clark:
Yeah. John, Joe and I were talking about it. Joe's comment, it's tough to get M&A done when there's limited to no visibility, right? So, the reality near term is that's a very low likelihood.
John Murphy:
Okay, great. Thank you very much, guys.
Joseph Massaro:
Thanks, John.
Operator:
And we can now take our next question from Ryan Brinkman of J.P. Morgan. Please go ahead.
Ryan Brinkman:
Hi. Thanks for taking my question. I think Aptiv is a real source of strength in the auto industry. You guys are. It was on display in 1Q, et cetera. It's great. But thought to ask a little bit more around, rather the relative weakness of any of your customers or vendors or something you're presently focused on or your investors should be focused on. I think it was John Murphy just asked on the tier two. So, I guess, maybe still a little bit more on the customer front. Working capital tends to be a source of cash for you when production is declining. Some automakers, though, I have to imagine are probably struggling here with the amount of payables going out the door, particularly in early 2Q without any of the offsetting cash coming in. So, without needing any customers, of course, are there any that you're worried about, their ability to pay or are they maybe leaning into the supply base a little bit for extended terms? Is there room for tier ones to accommodate them? What are you seeing there?
Kevin Clark:
Yeah. I would say, Ryan, by and large, the industry has acted pretty responsibly through this crisis. Based on dialogues we're having with OEMs, I think there's broadly an understanding that believing you can solve your problem by creating a problem for someone in the supply base is not a long-term sustainable solution. Having said that, all of us are focused on cash. We do get calls from customers about extending, which is perfectly appropriate in this sort of environment. We would expect that. That's not a situation or a path that we've decided to go down. When we look at our customer base, we think they're all in pretty strong financial position. I think the question comes down to how long does this last and how long do we go for a period with little to no production and then what does the rebound look like in the back half of this year and into next year. And I think relative to where the industry was in 2008/2009, it's in a much better position. And we'll monitor it closely. And then, lastly, I'd say one of the things that was in my prepared remarks, we've been very focused on the last five years in terms of diversification from a region standpoint, OEM standpoint and vehicle platform standpoint. So, making sure we're with the right customers in the right regions and on the right vehicle platforms, so our view is, that impact, to the extent you'd have one, would be much more muted than what it would have historically been.
Ryan Brinkman:
Great, thanks. That's really helpful. And then, just lastly from me, I thought to ask about the sort of like rolling phased restart in different geographies, is that going to be problematic for the final assembly plans getting going? Early on in the call, I think somebody asked about Mexico where a lot of your facilities are in North America. But I think some of the state governors, regional cooperatives, maybe that's helpful along those lines, but are there any bottlenecks that you're looking at? And if the industry was willing to go forth and the final assembly plants, those were in jurisdictions allowed to operate, how quickly – what kind of lag factor are you looking at maybe?
Kevin Clark:
So, we have 65,000 employees in Mexico. As an example, we have close to 30 manufacturing facilities, right, all of whom are dependent upon tier twos, tier threes. And as Joe mentioned, as a part of our crisis management team, we have a supply chain management team that's in daily contact with the entire supply base globally and in region and is doing health checks – financial health checks, operational health checks, safe start protocol health checks. And I'd say, we feel reasonably good about where the supply chain sits now. All of our facilities now have employees. All of our manufacturing facilities in Mexico, as an example, has employees in those facilities preparing for launch. I'd say we're a little bit in front of launch activity, to be very transparent. But just given some of the challenges in Mexico, we've elected to be in front of this. We've been in dialogue with the federal government there as well as the state governments to make sure that we can get people in, so that once our OEM customers flip the switch and begin vehicle production, we can do everything on our part to make sure that we satisfy their demands. Having said that, just given the complete shutdown of the industry for a period of time, we're sure they'll be some fits and starts, that there will be some problems. But the industry has done a relatively good job, given some of the global supply chain challenges we had in the past with tsunamis and earthquakes, things like that, are figuring out ways around it. The China shutdown, as an example, I'm not aware of a single OEM assembly plant shutdown that we were tied into directly or indirectly. So, it's something that the industry has done a pretty good job figuring out, with OEM customers adjusting what they produce and folks in the supply chain figuring out alternatives to products where there might be a shortage.
Ryan Brinkman:
Okay. Very helpful. Thank you.
Operator:
We can now take our next question from Mark Delaney of Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.
Mark Delaney :-:
Kevin Clark:
Yeah. I don't know if we have exact hours. I think first and foremost, it just starts with inefficiencies in the supply chain and part shortages and other items that create a certain amount of supply chain inefficiencies. The second piece is, in reality, we're operating differently, right? Today, 84% of our salaried workforce works from home. Although we've operated extremely well, surprisingly well, better than what Joe and I would have expected, there still is some inefficiency tied into that. Then when you overlay our protocols and the protocols of others where you think about daily temperature checks, health assessments, PPE, the social distancing, there is a certain amount of inefficiency that gets introduced into the production process and the supply chain, some of which – as we learn, as we're manufacturing at higher volumes, we'll get better at and we'll reduce, but some of which will remain in the supply chain. And this is an industry that's focused on saving nickels and dimes. To the extent every employee has a safety mask or a visor and you have six feet of distancing and you're having to juggle shifts at production facilities, there is a certain amount of negative productivity impact.
Joseph Massaro:
Yeah. I think, Mark, just to add. It's Joe. I want to add into just Kevin's lack of visibility comment, right? It's hard to quantify those things when you don't know exactly when folks are coming back to the plants, how many plants, how many employees, how fast is ramp. That's really what we're dealing with. As you think – you go down the P&L, you go down the various cost elements, it sort of starts with when and how fast you come back, and that's obviously going to take some time here during the course of, hopefully, just the second quarter to sort out for not only this quarter, but the balance of the year.
Mark Delaney :
Thanks for those comments. For my second question, I realize this is not a near-term focus of the company, but can you help investors understand what financial metrics Aptiv will be looking to achieve before it's going to resume returning capital to shareholders? Thank you.
Kevin Clark:
Yeah, listen. We're going to be in liquidity preservation mode here, and so we're very comfortable this pandemic is understood. You've got discussions of a potential second wave and such. So, I think you're well into the second half of 2021 before, best case, we'd be able to start to talk about that. We went out, I think, very prudently extended the credit facility because there was an opportunity to do that. It wasn't coming due until August of 2021. But, again, there was a window of opportunity there. We took advantage to bump up for a period of time the debt EBITDA calc to 4.5 times, not because we're necessarily worried about breaching. Again, that's the type of thing you do to maintain flexibility and optionality. As part of that, while we're under that covenant relief period, we will not be able to pay dividends through Q2 of 2021, dividends or buy back stock. But, again, didn't necessarily view us in a position, just given from a liquidity perspective, that we'd be in a position to do that. So, I think that's a longer-term look. I think, philosophically, around capital allocation, doing things like investing in the business organically and inorganically and, ultimately, returning cash to shareholders, philosophically, those views haven't changed. But for an extended period of time, we're going to be very much focused on liquidity first.
Mark Delaney:
Thank you.
Operator:
And we can now take our next question from David Kelley of Jefferies. Please go ahead.
David Kelley:
Hi. Good morning. To follow-up on your discussion regarding visibility to ongoing advancement in advanced solutions investment at your level and by your customers, whether it be active safety or electrification. I guess how are you thinking about RD&E spend and why do those ongoing secular changes, but factoring in that weaker macro backdrop as well.
Kevin Clark:
Yeah. Sorry, you broke up a little bit. Again, we view – not looking at the business quarter to quarter, which we do, but setting that aside, we still have a strong view, as do our customers, that consumers are looking for safer, greener, more connected vehicles. And on a couple of those trends, including safety and green, there's a government regulation overlay as well, that demand for those vehicles from our OEM customers will continue. We have specific data as it relates to consumer rebuy rates on ADAS active safety solutions as well as consumer preference or increasing preference for electric vehicles, especially in Europe and China that basically underscore our overall view that you're going to continue to see demand for that. Third, when you think about areas like ADAS, ADAS is a product that helps our OEM customers sell cars. And it's a product that allows them to sell vehicles at higher profit margins. And especially in times like these, our customers are going to be focused on selling the most profitable vehicles that they can sell, whether they are trucks, SUVs, so on and so forth, that have advanced ADAS systems on. Now, we'll continue to evaluate that. We'll continue to watch it. We'll continue to watch it closely. As I mentioned, flexibility is critically important. We've maintained a real flexible business model and flexible cost structure. And to the extent we see any change to that, we'll course correct.
David Kelley:
Great, thank you. And apologize. Hopefully, you can hear me better now. I guess my follow-up, a longer-term question. You've been targeting 25% sales mix outside of light vehicle autos by 2025. Does that change given the current backdrop? And how are you thinking about greenfield opportunity and potential bolt-on acquisitions go forward, assuming the latter is on pause? Go ahead.
Kevin Clark:
Yeah. Listen, Joe answered the question, right? Our philosophy from a capital allocation strategy hasn't changed. But right now, we're sitting in a period, again, where there is very, very limited visibility and flexibility is key. And flexibility is measured today by cash. And we're operating with the constraints of today. As things stabilize, we'll return to the historical strategy. But, right now, it's about maintaining flexibility and accumulating cash to make sure that we're in a position to do that. The reality is, near term, people don't transact when there's a lack of certainty. They don't sell and they don't buy. So, I think, in reality, it's a good theoretical question, but it's not a practical one. And once things settle, we'll continue the strategy of diversifying, being more balanced from a revenue standpoint. Is anyone there?
Elena Rosman :
So, Kevin, I think this concludes the Q&A portion of today's call. I'll hand the call back over to you for your final comments.
Kevin Clark:
Okay. Listen, thank you everyone for your time today. We hope you and your families are safe and healthy. Again, we're really focused on making sure that you understand the situation that we're operating in from a visibility standpoint and we're doing everything we can to ensure that we can operate. We keep a flexible business model and we can operate through this, and we're confident that we'll be able to do so. So, with that, thank you very much.
Operator:
Thank you. That concludes Aptiv's first quarter 2020 earnings conference call.
Operator:
Good day. My name is Matthew and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Aptiv Fourth Quarter 2019 Earnings Conference Call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speakers' remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions]. We would like to request that you limit yourself to asking one question and one follow-up question during the Q&A session. Thank you. Elena Rosman, Vice President of Investor Relations, you may begin your conference.
Elena Rosman:
Thank you, Matthew. Good morning and thank you to everyone for joining Aptiv's fourth quarter 2019 earnings conference call. To follow along with today's presentation, our slides can be found at ir.aptiv.com. And consistent with prior calls today's review of our actual and forecasted financials exclude restructuring and other special items and will address the continuing operations of Aptiv. The reconciliations between GAAP and non-GAAP measures for both our Q4 financials as well as our outlook for the first quarter and full year 2020 are included in the back of the presentation and in the earnings press release. Please see slide 2 for a disclosure on forward-looking statements, which reflects Aptiv's current view of future financial performance which may be materially different from our actual performance for reasons that we cite in our Form 10-K and other SEC filings. Joining us today will be Kevin Clark, Aptiv's President and CEO, and Joe Massaro, CFO and Senior Vice President. With that, I'd like to turn the call over to Kevin Clark.
Kevin Clark:
Thanks, Elena. Good morning, everyone. I'm going to begin today's earnings call by providing an overview of our 2019 fourth-quarter and full-year strategic and financial highlights. Joe will then take you through our fourth-quarter and full-year results in more detail as well as provide our financial outlook for 2020. Starting with the fourth quarter, revenues increased 2% to $3.6 billion despite a 7% reduction in global vehicle production, representing 9 points of growth over the underlying market. Operating income and earnings per share totaled $388 million and $1.15 respectively, above the top end of our previous guidance range, due to flow-through on higher volume growth and a lower-than-originally forecasted headwind from the GM labor strike during the quarter, partially offset by weaker exchange rates for the euro and renminbi. For the full year, revenues totaled $14.4 billion, representing 9 points of growth over the underlying vehicle production, reflecting the strength of our product portfolio, aligned to the safe, green and connected megatrends. Despite declining industry volumes, we had our eighth straight year record new business bookings, reaching $22.1 billion, exceeding 2018's record of $22 billion. Our 2020 outlook further validates the strength of our business strategy and the continuing widening of our competitive moat. Based on near-term customer production schedules as well as the midterm macro and geopolitical environment, we expect mobile vehicle production to decline 3% during the year. Despite these anticipated production declines, we're forecasting 4% revenue growth, 7 points over the underlying market, highlighting the fact that our business is built outperform in any environment. In summary, we continue to build on our strong track record of execution and innovation and remain focused on delivering the integrated solutions that are making vehicles safer, greener and more connected. Turning to slide 4, our 2019 performance reflects the efforts we've made to further strengthen our through-cycle resiliency, ensuring that we can outperform in a challenging environment, including having a more balanced mix of customer, regional and end market revenues. Non-customer now represents more than 10% of our annual revenue and we've nearly doubled the percentage of revenues not tied to light vehicle production, from 8% in 2017 to almost 15% in 2019. During the past two years of declining vehicle production, we've also increased the engineering investments necessary to ensure that we have the software, compute vehicle architecture and systems integration capabilities required to help our customers solve their biggest challenges. To help fund our increased investment and the development of these advanced technologies, we continued to reduce our overhead costs, further enhancing the flexibility and competitiveness of our business model. And we also announced the 50-50 joint venture with Hyundai, which advances the element of production-ready autonomous driving systems, both cost-effectively and at scale, which we now expect to close at the end of the first quarter. Our more sustainable business model is able to convert more income to cash. In 2019, we generated $1.6 billion in cash from operations and increased our free cash flow conversion of net income to 85%, positioning us to continue our track record of value-enhancing capital deployment, both investing in acquisitions and returning almost $650 million of cash to shareholders through share repurchases and dividends. In summary, our ownership mindset reinforces the team's attitude that we're never done and you can expect more of the same in 2020. Turning to slide 5, fourth quarter new business bookings totaled a record $8.1 billion, bringing the 2019 total to $22.1 billion. Fourth quarter bookings reflected both increased customer sourcing activities and a strong Aptiv win rate. With the pace of our new business bookings and prospectives, since 2017, the forecast for global vehicle production has actually declined 10%. During the same period, our new business bookings have increased 15%, reflecting our strengthening competitive position across several advanced technologies. Our Advanced Safety and User Experience segment booked $3.2 billion of new customer awards in the quarter and $7.6 billion for the full year. Our industry-leading capabilities in central compute platforms and sensing and perception systems allows us to deliver smarter, safer and more integrated solutions, both outside the vehicle with active safety, as well in the vehicle through enhanced in-cabin safety and user experience systems. Our Signal and Power Solutions segment had new business bookings totaling $4.9 billion during the quarter and $14.5 billion for the full year, including a second straight year with over $2 billion of high-voltage electrification awards. Our long track record of increased new business bookings each year validates our ability to leverage the unique brain and nervous system, our software and hardware foundation that enables new features and functions, while optimizing the total system cost of the vehicle, and reinforces our ability to sustain strong above-market growth, underscoring our relevant portfolio aligned to key secular growth trends. Turning to highlights in our Advanced Safety and User Experience segment on slide 6. Sales for the fourth quarter were up 4%, 11 points over market. Continued strong consumer demand for active safety and user experience solutions drove revenue growth of 23% and 3% respectively. As the need for complex software development and systems integration expertise increases, our unique ability to offer highly functional optimized solutions has driven several of our 2019 strategic highlights, including further penetration of existing customers who deployed our scalable satellite architecture platform, helping them democratize active safety solutions across their vehicle lineups. We're also introducing advanced technologies for use in the nascent field of interior sensing, which is expected to grow at a 50% compounded growth rate through 2025, albeit off a relatively low base. During 2019, we were awarded three new programs focused on assessing driver availability and engagement to meet NCAP regulations as well as support partially automated functionality, such as highway pilot and traffic jam assist. During the year, our premium OEM customer awarded us our first zone controller program, representing another step in building the technical and commercial foundation for Aptiv's SVA approach. Lastly, we also launched the first Android infotainment solution with Volvo car. Powered by native Google automotive services in real-time OTA, enabling a best-in-class in-cabin experience, and underscoring Aptiv's leading agile solution development capabilities as well as a partner of choice,. serving as the best bridge between the automotive and the tech industries. Turning to slide 7, active safety penetration in the United States has reached a point where we're beginning to see fatality rates decline as OEMs move from initial Level 0 applications to Level 1 and more advanced Level 2 ADAS applications. Consumers are demanding safer vehicles and OEMs are responding, accelerating the penetration of more advanced ADAS systems across our vehicle lineups, from the premium to the value segments. Underpinning our continued strong growth in new business bookings for ADAS systems has been our ability to provide OEMs with highly reliable scalable platforms, which allow them to deploy advanced ADAS systems more quickly and at a more competitive price level. As OEMs increasingly look to leverage their investments for Level 2, Level 2+ and Level 3 ADAS systems, the growth in our pipeline of new business pursuits is actually accelerating, even while underlying vehicle production schedules declined. Our scalable ADAS solution is unique in the industry and has been very successful in the marketplace, positioning us to enhance our market position in the future. Active safety bookings increased to a record $4.2 billion in 2019 and we're on track to reach over $5 billion in 2020. And we expect our active safety revenues to almost double from $1.3 billion in 2019 to more than $2.5 billion in 2022, significantly outpacing growth of the active safety market as reflected on the chart. As we discussed previously, the accelerated growth in our commercial pipeline for advanced ADAS programs has led to decide to increase our investment in the advanced engineering, customer pursuit and program launch resources necessary to take the opportunity to widen our competitive moat and ensure we position Aptiv to be the leading player in the active safety market. Joe will provide more detail on this investment later in the presentation. Turning to slide 8. Our Signal and Power Solutions segment is focused on next-generation vehicle architectures, including high-speed data and high-power electrical distribution, enabling the advanced technologies that will shape the future of mobility. In the fourth quarter, sales increased 1%, 8 points above market despite the impact of the GM strike, driven by new launches across our electrical distribution and connector product lines. High voltage electrification revenues increased 28% in the quarter, while non-auto revenues were up 26%. Our leadership position in optimized vehicle architectures has positioned us to be the partner of choice for both traditional and new mobility customers as evidenced by our recent high-voltage award with Tesla on the Model Y and the expansion of our low-voltage business on the Model Y and Model 3 in China. Also during 2019, our connection systems business launched an expanded line of automatable modular ethernet connectors, AMEC connectors, capable of handling up to 1 GB of data per second with several global OEM customers. This family of interconnects enables the evolution of modern vehicle architectures, which is necessary to democratize high levels of safety automation with fast and reliable data transfers. Together, these new business bookings underscore our strength in optimizing power and signal distribution for complex architectures, as well as our ability to serve customers globally through consistent engineering and launch execution. Diving deeper into our high voltage electrification product line on slide 9. Our strong pipeline of new business awards reinforces the fact that we're at a significant inflection point in the growth of high voltage electrification. Despite the slowdown in 2019, Chinese new energy vehicle initiative is driving increased powertrain electrification and European OEMs cannot achieve the new, more stringent CO2 targets without the combination of plug-in hybrids and battery electric vehicles. As a result of these factors, we're confident that by 2022, well over 20% of the vehicles produced annually will include an electrified powertrain. And as we've mentioned several times before, our total addressable content per vehicle for the full range of high-voltage alternative, including traditional hybrids, plug-ins and fully electric vehicles, is in the range of 1.5 to 2 times that of a traditional low-voltage vehicle. Our 2019 high-voltage electrification revenues totaled approximately $350 million. That's up almost 40% year-over-year, making it one of our fastest growing product lines. Between now and 2022, OEMs are expected to launch roughly 40 new high-voltage platforms globally, spanning hundreds of nameplates. Based on the value and program launch timing of our new business bookings, product line revenues are expected increased more than threefold to over $1 billion in 2022, representing a 40% compounded growth rate over that time. So, in summary, we're perfectly positioned to continue to increase revenues significantly above underlying vehicle production as we leverage our increasingly differentiated competitive position and continue to benefit from the increased demand for advanced safety solutions, vehicle connectivity and high-voltage electrification. Before I turn it over to Joe on slide 10, I'd like to touch on our recent activities at CES in Las Vegas. As we've done in the past, we hosted a number of customers, partners and investors in our pavilion, featuring our smart vehicle architecture which lowers the total cost of ownership, while enabling the software-defined feature-rich vehicles consumers want. In total, we had nearly 1,000 stakeholder visits and hosted a number of senior executives from our customers, which underscores the increasingly strategic role Aptiv plays in delivering next gen vehicle technologies to our customers. During our many meetings, customers validated the need to streamline and simplify vehicle architectures to both reduce cost and enable the necessary advances in high-voltage electrification and vehicle autonomy. Our SVA centerpiece display highlighted the benefits of Aptiv's unique brain and nervous technology portfolio, with prototypes of new and existing electrical and electronic solutions that allow us to effectively manage and take advantage of the up-integration of the vehicle's compute domains. Our capabilities around the brain and nervous system of the vehicle positions us to serve as a natural consolidator and integrator, efficiently offering the most advanced hardware and software solutions. Customer feedback validated the significant progress we made in 2019, developing the technology stack and feature roadmap for continued SVA development. With that, I'll hand the call over to Joe to take us through the fourth quarter and full-year results and review our outlook for 2020.
Joseph Massaro :
Thanks, Kevin. Good morning, everyone. As discussed at the beginning of the presentation, our financial framework aligns with our mission to build a more sustainable business with the ability to outperform in any environment. We remain focused on improving our through-cycle performance by enhancing our industry-leading growth portfolio and flexible cost structure, while investing for future growth and executing on our capital deployment strategy, which I'll cover in more detail in a moment. Starting with our fourth-quarter revenue growth on slide 11, revenues of $3.6 billion were up 2% adjusted in the quarter, totaling 9% growth over market as vehicle production declined 7% in the quarter as expected. Excluding acquisitions, organic growth was 1% or 8% growth over market. And as a reminder, the Winchester interconnect acquisition closed early in the fourth quarter of 2018. Strong launch volume and content gains globally were partially offset by price downs of 1.5% in the quarter, the unfavorable impact of FX and commodities and lower North American volume related to the GM strike. From a regional perspective, North America revenues were down 9% on an adjusted basis and approximately flat excluding the GM strike. European revenues were up 8% adjusted with 14 points of growth over market, driven by the uptick of several active safety and electrification programs. And lastly, our China adjusted growth was 11% or 12 points of growth over market, driven by strong launch volume across the portfolio. Turning to slide 12, as Kevin indicated, fourth-quarter operating income and EPS were above the high-end of the guidance we provided back in October. EBITDA and operating income of $566 million and $388 million respectively reflected better-than-expected volume growth in both segments, offset by FX and commodity headwinds and the impact of the GM strike, which totaled approximately $80 million in the quarter. Adjusted operating income margin was 10.8% in the quarter. Earnings per share of $1.15 was down 14% reported, but up approximately 7% excluding the GM strike. Moving to the segments on the next slide. For the quarter, Advanced Safety and User Experience revenues grew 4% or 11 points over market, driven by launches and robust growth in active safety, more than offsetting the impact of the planned roll-off of our display audio product line. Operating income margin was 12.2% before the impact of mobility investments, driven by the accretive benefit of volume growth, offset by continued growth related investments in the business. Our mobility spend for the quarter totaled $42 million and $184 million for the year, which was in line with expectations. In summary, another strong year of revenue growth and operating leverage, while investing for future growth in the Advanced Safety and User Experience segment. Turning to Signal and Power Solutions on slide 14. For the fourth quarter, revenues were up 1% adjusted, representing 8% growth over market. Excluding acquisitions, organic growth was flat or 7 points over market, resulting from strong growth in our electrical distribution systems and CV and industrial product lines, partially offset by the unfavorable impact of the GM strike. EBITDA margin was 17.2%, down 90 basis points year-over-year, and operating income margin was 11.8%, down 130 basis points. However, both EBITDA and operating income were up approximately 80 basis points excluding the impact of the GM strike. Given the continued challenging macro landscape heading into 2020, we expect to see continued softening of vehicle production around the world as shown on slide 15. At a global level, we expect vehicle production to be down 3% for the full year, with 4% adjusted revenue growth or 7 points of growth over market. From a regional perspective, let me start with China. We expect vehicle production to decline 3% for the full year, with production down 15% in the first quarter, including the extended New Year's shutdown announced earlier this week. We expect to see stronger growth over market in the first half of China as we lapped the heavy launch cadence we had in the back half of 2019. Turning to North America, we expect vehicle production to decline 1% for the full year as the modest recovery in GM volumes are offset by continued declines in passenger car units and the run-off of our display audio business. Turning to Europe, we expect full year production to decline 4%. However, our pace of double-digit growth over market continues, driven by new program launches in our active safety and high-voltage product lines, as Kevin referenced earlier. Consistent with the last two years, our portfolio of safe, green and connected technologies and balanced regional customer and platform mix will more than offset the negative industry macros again in 2020. Turning to the next slide for our 2020 guidance. For the year, we expect revenue to be in the range of $14.5 billion to $14.9 billion, up 4% at the midpoint despite global vehicle production down 3%, resulting in growth over market of 7%. Operating income is expected to be $1.72 billion at the midpoint, with operating margins increasing 100 basis points when adjusting for FX and commodities. As Kevin mentioned, we expect the automated driving JV to close at the end of Q1. We expect earnings per share in the range of $4.75 to $5.05 per share, up 2% at the midpoint with share count flat year-over-year, a 10% increase before the impact of the equity income losses from the JV. Operating cash flow of $1.75 billion is up 8% year-over-year. Looking at the first quarter, revenue is expected in the range of $3.47 billion to $3.57 billion, up 1% at the midpoint with 6 points of growth over market, given our outlook for global vehicle production down 5% in the quarter. EBITDA and operating income are expected to be $495 million and $315 million at the midpoint respectively and earnings per share are expected be $0.90 at the midpoint. As a reminder, our first quarter outlook reflects the estimated impact of the extended shutdowns in China vehicle production. Despite 2020 representing the third consecutive year of declining vehicle production, our outlook for the year demonstrates the traction we have made improving our through-cycle resiliency with the relevant portfolio of technologies that grow faster than the underlying market at a competitive cost structure, allowing us to grow earnings and cash flow, while continuing to invest in future growth. Turning to the next slide, we thought it'd be helpful to walk revenue, EBITDA and operating income year-over-year for the segments, starting with Advanced Safety and User Experience. For revenue, we expect growth over market of 7 points, translating into approximately $4.2 billion of revenue in 2020. As growth in active safety revenue more than offsets price downs, FX and the roll-off of our displays and contract manufacturing revenues. EBITDA and operating margins excluding mobility in both years is expected to be down approximately 200 basis points. Consistent with our prior communications, the outlook for ASUX includes the necessary investments to support the development of advanced technologies, the pipeline of new business pursuits and the volume of new program launches in 2020, demonstrating the benefits of our competitive position and enhancing the opportunity to maximize returns on our investment in the coming years, with continued strong volume growth. Turning to Signal and Power Solutions. We expect growth over market of 6 points, translating into approximately $10.5 billion of revenue in 2020. Our electrical distribution systems product line continues to be a market leader and is seeing sustainable growth over market from higher content and penetration of Auto 2.0 megatrends. Our connector and cable management product lines, which include auto and industrial interconnects, is expected to grow mid-single digit above market again in 2020. And high-voltage electrification, including both electrical distribution and connectors, is accretive to both the growth and profitability of SPS, with 50% growth expected in 2020. Operating margin expansion is expected to be approximately 80 basis points, more than offsetting the unfavorable impact of FX and commodities. Turning to the next slide and Aptiv overall, you will see the year-over-year walks for revenue and operating income for the full year 2020. For revenue, you see the benefits of our more secular portfolio driving volume growth and more than offsetting price, FX and commodity headwinds. For operating income, you see the benefits of volume growth, partially offset by unfavorable foreign exchange and commodities, primarily the euro and RMB. And the benefits of our performance initiatives derive from our annual manufacturing material sourcing actions that ramp over the course of the year in addition to the benefits of the JV deconsolidation, partially offset by our investments for growth, which I noted earlier. While industry volumes started their decline in 2018, Aptiv has continued to execute its capital deployment strategy, creating meaningful value for shareholders as reflected on slide 20. We have continued investing in the business organically to support our strong bookings growth in faster-growing product lines, such as active safety and electrification, inorganically where we've invested $1.5 billion in acquisitions, like KUM, Winchester and gabocom, which have expanded the geographic and end market diversification of our Signal and Power Solutions business. Lastly, we have returned approximately $1.4 billion to shareholders through share purchases and dividends over this time frame, bringing our total cash return to shareholders to approximately $7 billion since our IPO in 2011. Looking forward, we will continue to maintain a consistent and well balanced approach to capital allocation, aligned to our strategic framework, focusing on reinvesting in our businesses and paying a competitive dividend. Our M&A strategy focuses on transactions that enhance our scalability, accelerate speed to market and also provide access to new markets. And to the extent that we can take advantage of market disconnects, we will continue to be opportunistic in our share buyback and returning cash to shareholders. In summary, we believe effective capital deployment is a major differentiator for Aptiv and an important lever for shareholder value generation. With that, I'd like to hand the call back to Kevin for his closing remarks.
Kevin Clark :
Thanks, Joe. I'll wrap up on slide 21 before opening it up for Q&A. 2019 was another great year for Aptiv despite an even more challenging macroenvironment. Our operating performance validated the progress we've made strengthening our through-cycle resiliency by having the right portfolio of advanced technologies enabling the safe, green and connected solutions our customers are increasingly demanding; the right cost structure allowing us to continue to invest in future capabilities, while driving earnings and cash flow growth; and the right people and processes to deliver the innovation and execution that's inherent in our strategy. Looking ahead, the team has never been more confident in our competitive position and our ability to outperform through cycle. We believe Aptiv is perfectly positioned to continue capitalizing on the key global Auto 2.0 megatrends to drive market share gains, while continuing to improve our cost structure which gives us tremendous confidence in our outlook for 2020 and beyond. We remain laser focused on both delivering value to our shareholders today, while also strengthening our competitive position in the future, building upon our strong track record of flawless operational execution and value-enhancing capital deployment. As a result, we build a much more predictable and sustainable business, with robust downturn resiliency that's better positioned to perform in any macroenvironment. So, with that, let's open up the line for Q&A.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions]. Your first question comes from the line of Brian Johnson with Barclays. Your line is open.
Brian Johnson:
Yes, a couple of things. I have a few questions. But this display roll off of the business, it's not a surprise. We talked about that. But especially in light of all the people selling displays and all the action at CES, could you do two things strategically? Just, one, remind us of when and why you decided to exit that business? And two, when you are still doing user experience, where does that mean you're really focused? Is it hypervisors? Is it software? Is it just the same advanced systems, but outsourcing the screens?
Kevin Clark:
Brian, I'll start and then Joe certainly can add to the comment. On the display side or that portion of the display business that we decided that we're going to exit, it's really on the directed buy aspect – that aspect of the commodities. So, the software behind the display, the hypervisor, all of that sort of value add, as well as the domain controller, that's the activity that we're focusing our efforts on.
Brian Johnson:
And you still get those without hurting the display part of that?
Kevin Clark:
The display part is more often than not – certainly, increasingly it's pass-through or a directed buy from the customer. So, that's the aspect of the display business the we decided that we're going to exit.
Brian Johnson:
Okay. As you look in that segment, are there other mature products that would be wound down, and so they're not going after them just as we think about the revenue walk with all the positive trends we need to keep in mind longer term.
Kevin Clark:
No. I think from an overall portfolio standpoint, we believe the balance of what we call user experience, which is principally for us infotainment, the software, the hypervisor, again, the domain controller as it relates to cockpit controllers and those sorts of things, it's a very attractive business for us and we have a very strong competitive position.
Brian Johnson:
Okay.
Joseph Massaro:
Brian, the leg down in 2020 is about $75 million of display revenue round numbers.
Brian Johnson:
Okay. And is any of that closer to 2021, 2022?
Joseph Massaro:
It's really small numbers after that. We finished 2019 a little under $100 million.
Brian Johnson:
Okay. Second, around the EU CO2 transition, apart from minus 3% or so of reduction. What are you, A, seeing in terms of production mix between electrified/non-electrified mix? B, how would that change over the year? And then, C, I assume you're fairly fungible between regular wiring, regular wiring plus high voltage for hybrid, regular wiring plus high voltage [indiscernible]. How are you thinking about managing what could be – are you expecting production schedule category volatility and how you're preparing for that?
Kevin Clark:
At least based on what we see today, right, we've been on a path for electrification through some period of time. It doesn't mean at the OE level that you could potentially see a disconnect. From our perspective, what we're seeing from a customer schedule standpoint especially in Europe, again, Joe talked about our outlook for revenue growth next year in high voltage, which is north of 50%. It's extremely strong. Can that growth rate – can it jump around quarter to quarter? That will depend upon launch volume or launch activity and where we're annualizing. So, it's possible that you see some fluctuation quarter to quarter. It's quite likely that's not only OEM generated or schedule generated. It's more likely launch generated. And then, the third portion of your question with respect to high-voltage, again, both on the connector side as well as on the wire harness side, we think we're well-positioned in each region to meet demand. And as we said in the past, it's an attractive product portfolio for us. And as you look at our underlying margin structure margin for the SPS business, the margin on that product line is actually higher than the margin on a traditional product line.
Joseph Massaro:
Brian, as we talked about, same plant, same engineers, same supply chain. So, managing volumes will not be overly challenging for that product line.
Brian Johnson:
Yeah. Unlike diesel versus gas injectors of a company you used to own, it's not a major reallocation from plant to plant. It's just different staffing in parts of the plant floor if an OEM decides to ramp up hybrids more than EVs or vice versa. Okay, great. I've got lots of other questions, which I'll do follow-up later. Thanks.
Kevin Clark:
Thanks.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Chris McNally with Evercore. Your line is open.
Chris McNally:
Hey, how is it going? I guess, first question people are going to ask about Q1, the weakness. We definitely are starting to hear this from multiple suppliers. You call out China very specifically. Could you just maybe talk about how much you're building in some of the extreme current weakness from things like he virus or is this some of the spillover from excess inventory that we had at the end of 2019?
Joseph Massaro:
Chris, I'd say it's more of what we're hearing from delayed startups following the new year. Our schedules are fairly locked; and sort of by the end of December had accounted for any production shifts between Q4 and Q1 from our perspective. So, this is really – we've got customers now that, I'd say, in general are talking about coming back no sooner than February 9 or 10, which is depending on business is anywhere from a week to almost two weeks of delayed production from what we would normally have seen The SPS business tends to go back a little bit earlier in the new year break. So, it's really just adjusting to delayed startup. And it's a fairly fluent situation, as you might imagine. The dislocation of – it's going to be really the dislocation of labor that went home for the holidays and how quickly they can all come back either from a practical perspective or from a government mandate perspective. But that's primarily it. And call that – if you were to look sort of what Q1 year-over-year OI called China, this delayed production may be $15 million or $20 million. Right now, we're expecting to make that up in Q2. So, we don't view this as a full year issue at the moment. And then, we do have some FX that we've talked about before as we catch up in the first and second quarter to the weaker RMB and euro that happened in the second half of last year. We've got another $20 million in Q1 of FX and commodity impacting the OI line. So, those two items are really everything that's in Q1.
Kevin Clark:
Chris, if I can add one thing, I think one item to make sure we're clear that it does not include, if there's a global disruption as a result of the supply chain issues in China, if there's anything meaningful, that's not incorporated into our outlook for the first quarter. So, to Joe's point, it's really focused on the impact in China as it relates to China production.
Chris McNally:
Okay. Guys, that's very clear. And just a quick second question on the investment for growth in the EBIT walk and, obviously, the investment in ADAS where the bookings are quite strong. Could you just give us a little bit of color to how much this 50 basis points, let's call it, $70 million – I think on slide 4, you give the 8% of sales going to engineering. How much of that is sort of staff engineering hires that occur in 2020, so that you get some leverage on that 2021, 2022 versus we have to think about this drag going on while your ADAS growth is good? So, how much is the step up for this year versus we have to think about this as a continual drag on the walk going forward?
Kevin Clark:
Yeah. I can start, Chris. Again, Joe can certainly comment. Listen, I think it's kind of two things. It's run rate related to the back of last year quite frankly in terms of – we talked about – or I made the comment in my prepared comments with respect to an acceleration of customer opportunities. Clearly, those are things that we've been working on for some period of time. So, it relates to resources associated with the development of technologies, some of which we featured at CES like advancing our radar technology, advancing our algorithm capability, advancing our sensor fusion capability, as well as advancing our – at this point in time – ADAS controller capability, resources associated with the development of that technology and integrating or operating with the customer. And then, lastly, as Joe said, some of it is execution of launch activity. Some portion of it is in the baseline tailwind of 2019, then some step up into 2020. And we wouldn't expect an incremental step up like this based on the opportunities that we see in front of us today in 2021.
Joseph Massaro:
I'd agree with that, Chris. This is leverageable spend as we get into the out years.
Chris McNally:
Okay, great. Much appreciated. I'll follow-up with you guys after. Thanks so much.
Joseph Massaro:
Thanks, Chris.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Dan Galves with Wolfe Research. Your line is open.
Dan Galves:
Hey, good morning. Thank you. So, just wanted to ask about the China growth over market. That kind of jumped out at me. Only a couple hundred basis points in 2020, like when this has been running like pretty high kind of into the double digits most of 2019. Can you just talk about some of the reasons behind that? Lear the other day really kind of called out some of the US automaker underperformance in 2020 as a reason for them kind of having a lower growth rate than the market. Just wanted to kind of ask about what's happening there.
Kevin Clark:
I'll make the first comment and Joe can go through all the details. Listen, as it relates to OEM mix, we have exposure to some of those customers that have had lower or weaker revenue growth in the China market for the last year or two. So, quite frankly, when you look at 2020, I don't think that story – or we don't think that story is any different. And in 2019, as you know, we had very strong growth over market. Dan, I'd characterize it as just the impact or timing associated with program launches. And in any given quarter or any given year, you see growth relative to market. You can't see swings or adjustments. As you head into 2021, we'd expect that growth over market to return to more normalized levels for us, which tend to be high single, low double digit growth over market.
Joseph Massaro:
No, I agree. Fourth quarter was very strong for us. There was a lot of launch activity. So, as we've looked out on 2020, we just assume we lap those launches in Q4 at this point. We don't see launch activity in the back half of the year that would bring us up, Dan. So, we see it coming back on 2021. But from what we'd expect the business to do, as Kevin mentioned, high voltage continued to be very strong in China. Some of the lap launches on are on active safety. But for us, that growth over market doesn't sort of shoot straight every quarter, and I think that's all we're seeing. It's very specific to what we've launched. It's not sort of a broader customer or macro question for us. It's very specific to our launch cadence.
Dan Galves:
Got it. And just one other one, as I think about the business a little bit longer term, can you talk about the timing of the launches of some of these higher value scalable active safety L2, L2+ awards? Are you seeing launch activity in the back half of 2020 yet? Or are we waiting till mostly 2021?
Kevin Clark:
No. You'll begin to see in 2020 and then each year following that, Dan. So, a significant amount of launch activity, which really reflects that growth rate we talked about, right? It's $1.3 billion to $2.5 billion over the next couple of years. And as I mentioned in our comments, or were mentioned in our comments, we see an opportunity to actually accelerate the growth in the out years, and that's what supports the incremental investment we're talking about this year.
Dan Galves:
Great. Thanks a lot, guys.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Joe Spak with RBC Capital Markets. Your line is open.
Joe Spak:
Thanks. Good morning, everyone. And thanks for all the helpful color on the locks. I guess, on slide 19, if I try to like normalize 2019 margins or pro forma, and I guess, for, let's say, three quarters no mobility, it seems like you're guiding margins pretty flat year-over-year despite the growth. And I get the 60 basis points of investment. You talked about that. I think that's understandable. But it also then implies that, even though you're getting productivity, it might not be fully offsetting some of the price. I know you've taken a lot of action and there's been some tariff mitigation. So, is there something else we need to consider that sort of plugs that algorithm?
Joseph Massaro:
Joe, we're close. If you look, adjusted for FX, exclude the JV, we're at about 10 basis points of margin expansion for the year. Our target, as we talked about at investor day last year, was closer to 20 basis points in a flattish market. So, we're at 10 basis points in a down 3% market. So, obviously, we're the type of folks that always want to see more. But there is an element – there is some down vehicle production. We do have to absorb that. There's a lot of other offsets occurring, right? Lot of other projects. So, for us, a 10 basis point in a down 3% production is kind of where we feel like we need the business to be just given the overall investments. And again, when we talked about sort of up 20 basis points in a year, that was much more in a flattish production environment.
Joe Spak:
Okay, thanks. Just on AS and UX, we always talk a lot about ADAS and zone controllers. Kevin, I heard you mention three driver monitoring wins. It's not something I've heard you talk a lot about in the past, but it's clearly an important feature going forward, especially since I think it's required for your NCAP. Like, how big is that business? How fast can it grow within active safety? It seems like it's maybe underpenetrated versus the rest of ADAS? Like, what's the margin profile versus…?
Kevin Clark:
So, dollars today are extremely small. Market growth rate and our growth rate, extremely fast. So, we think over the next handful of years, market size can get up to $2 billion, Joe. We think we can get to roughly – somewhere between 20% and 40% market share in that market. It dovetails perfectly with what we're doing from an ADAS platform or systems standpoint. It's necessary, to your point, for Euro NCAP. Just as important, though, it's necessary really to optimize when you think about traffic jam assists, highway assists, highway pilot. Those sorts of activities, you need that technology in the car. So, it's an area that we have a significant amount of focus within the traditional ASUX business. And when you think about mobility on demand, it's an area where the folks in our AD business are very focused as they look at additional services that they can provide their ridesharing customers. So, we're excited about it, but it's a very small revenue amount today.
Joe Spak:
So, then as that grows, presumably that scale similar to just sort of how you talked about other aspects of ADAS in the past as well from a margin perspective?
Kevin Clark:
Yeah. That is a margin rate that is in line with what we've talked about ADAS – when ADAS gets to full scale.
Joe Spak:
Okay, thank you very much.
Kevin Clark:
Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Emmanuel Rosner with Deutsche Bank. Your line is open.
Emmanuel Rosner:
Good morning, everybody. Good morning. So, I wanted to come back to the engineering investments in AS and UX. If I understand your message, there is this large step up, but it's not sort of – that is not expected to keep stepping up this way beyond sort of 2020. Can you just maybe go over – how should we think about the margin profile, the normalized margin profile of that business? It's taking a decent step back ex mobility investment this year. Obviously, you have a longer-term framework from the various investors days for pretty decent amount of margin expansion. So, is it really just a function of that beyond this year's investment, which sort of like go back to this 30 bps or 50 bps of annual margin expansion or are there any other consideration or ADAS is just a…?
Kevin Clark:
A couple of comments. First, just to put it into context – listen, we focus on every penny we spend. Our guidance is roughly $2.5 billion in EBITDA in 2020. And our view is, given the number of opportunities that are in front of us, given our competitive position and given the chance to, what we believe, really expand our competitive moat, investing in an additional 70-plus-million-dollars is the smart thing to do near-term and long-term. So, I'm going to start with that. Second, our active safety business today has double-digit operating margins. So, it's a profitable business. As we scale – and I think Joe made the comment that you should view this investment as scalable investment. As we continue to scale, given the nature of this business, given how we structured scalable platforms, our ADAS product line is a product line that ought to have margins well in excess of our traditional kind of where we're running at now, low double-digit operating margins, right? We should get strong software. So, you should see something. From an ADAS standpoint, including both hardware and software, that's in the high teens. So, it's a very, very attractive space for us to play.
Emmanuel Rosner:
Okay. That's helpful. And then, I guess, on the -- in S&PS, on the other hand, obviously, extremely strong operating leverage and incremental margins and strong outlook on margin improvement for this year. Can you maybe just walk over some of the drivers of this high incremental margins? I assume electrification being part of the existing footprint is obviously helpful. Anything that's sort of out of the ordinary or can we sort of assume this continues?
Joseph Massaro:
I think we're on the trajectory we expect to be on with that business. The team has done a really nice across all the product lines. And I think you hit it on the head. It's important, the high-voltage growth. That's a business that we talked about was – even a relatively small product line that sort of hit segment margins very quickly because of the nature of the business. We really can run that business on the same cost structure as the low voltage. And then, we're getting benefits of the scale in that business. Again, we got content on one out of every three-and-a-half vehicles manufactured globally. So, even if it's not our active safety system or even our high-voltage system, you tend to see more electrical content going into vehicles globally. So, you've got a healthy tailwind at the back of that business helping with the leverage. So, that's playing out that as expected. Again, when we looked at all of the opportunities in ASUX to invest, the performance in the active safety product line itself, as Kevin mentioned, and where we were with SPS margin expansion, that's really what gave us the confidence to continue to invest in the active business.
Kevin Clark:
Yeah. I'd break it down into three big buckets. Share gains in our connection systems business. So, strong growth, as Joe highlighted, right? And as you know, that's an attractive margin profile. Product line execution, so we talked about high-voltage and growth of that particular product area across both our EDS and CS product lines. And then, thirdly, execution especially in the EDS business. Our management team there has done an excellent job, especially in 2019, in terms of just blocking and tackling and operational improvements. I think the best examples there, quite frankly, is China where you know what vehicle production – the decline of vehicle production last year. That China team was able to basically achieve their business plan forecast at much lower volumes. So, the ability to execute on what is a complex manufacturing and supply chain business has translated into the margin improvement that we're talking about. The team there did an outstanding job.
Emmanuel Rosner:
Yeah, definitely. Many thanks.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of John Murphy with Bank of America. Your line is open.
John Murphy:
Good morning, guys. Just a first question to follow-up on the incremental $70 million being spent on the active safety side. I would imagine, if this was longer-term R&D, it would be in the JV. So, it's pretty safe to assume that this has real near-term implications for product in this year and probably in the next two to three years? Is that kind of a fair statement?
Joseph Massaro:
It is, John. Let me go back. Remember, the JV is really focused on that Level 4 or 5 robo taxi space. So, anything that's Level 2++, Level 3, early-stage Level 4 for consumer fleets, for our normal traditional customers, that stayed with us. So, you're right. This has got an investment across sort of that – what I'd say is really sort of the 2++, 3 type spectrum. And if looked at some of the advanced development Kevin's talked about, that's to make sure we can secure the $5 billion of bookings plus that Kevin mentioned for 2020, continue to grow the business and support the launches of what we're doing currently. So, that's fair.
Kevin Clark:
Yeah. I think, John, as we've talked before, the demand for Level 2, Level 2+ and even Level 3 with some OEMs, we're seeing that activity – over the last 12, 18 months, we've seen that activity significantly increase. So, the investment is in response to pursuing those opportunities.
John Murphy:
Okay. So, if we could also dovetail that or sort of put the JV next to that, is there any need to step up spending there that you're seeing just that technology is advancing and might be longer dated as opposed to realization? How much sort of financial control do you have on sort of that decision-making process? And if you can just remind us how the cash flow either works or doesn't work between you and that JV.
Kevin Clark:
Well, the JV is a separate legal entity. Our partner has three board members. We have three board members. So, we still have a significant amount of control and visibility as it relates to the joint venture's strategy and the direction it's going in. The management team running the joint venture entity is the existing management team from our automated driving business headed by Karl Iagnemma and his team. We haven't finalized numbers at this point in time, but I think given the opportunity and given some of the vehicle capabilities that our partner brings that you should expect a ramp-up in spending as it relates to vehicle validation and vehicle integration. It's a 50-50 joint venture, obviously. Half of that, from a P&L impact, flows through our P&L. As it relates to cash, Hyundai is putting a $1.6 billion of cash at close. So, our view is that's enough money or enough cash to fund the development and commercialization of the technology over the next several years. Joe?
Joseph Massaro:
Yeah. We've talked before about it being sort of enough to fund four to five years. To Kevin's point, as the JV comes together and we start to look at the vehicle capabilities and the commercialization opportunities of Hyundai, it's possible the JV spends more in 2021 and 2022, but certainly would come from the funding from Hyundai.
John Murphy:
But no cash flow from you at all at this point?
Kevin Clark:
No.
Joseph Massaro:
No. Not required for the next couple of years.
John Murphy:
And then, just lastly, real quickly on SVA. Is there anything that is in the backlog or was still in sort of RFI stage for that? And also, as we think about what you're talking about, growth above market, is there every going to be a period where the Signal and Power actually might have higher outgrowth than Advanced Safety and User Experience? Or was it going to be a facilitator for growth on that side? Just curious if we'll see a flip sometime in 2020 [indiscernible] on that.
Kevin Clark:
John, I don't think we'd envision a flip relative to the growth rates you see in ADAS, I think just given the nature of that market, the market opportunity. Having said that, we fingers there's opportunities, especially with the mix of high-voltage and a mix some of the product portfolio that we have in the connection systems business to grow kind of mid-single digits over underlying vehicle production, including both the impact of a non-automotive as well as our automotive connector portfolio. But by and large, it's an enabler of all the software and other items that we're talking about. As it relates to SVA, our view is there's a portion of this SVA activity that has already started with domain centralization and some of the cockpit controllers, the active safety controller, some of the programs that that we've actually already won. With respect to SVA specific and what we showed at CES, we're working today with – we have three advanced development programs with two automotive OEs. Those programs are going to come forward with RFIs or RFQs in the coming months. So, the commercial opportunity, hopefully, we have something to report in terms of business wins this calendar year and revenue shortly thereafter.
John Murphy:
Great, thank you very much.
Joseph Massaro:
Thanks, John.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of David Leiker with Baird. Your line is open.
Erin Welcenbach:
Good morning. This is Erin Welcenbach on for David.
Kevin Clark:
Hi, Erin.
Erin Welcenbach:
So, my question relates to your ability to drive growth in the non-auto businesses this year. Obviously, you've acquired a number of businesses over the last couple of years from an organic perspective at least. Wondering how the opportunity set is developing and your ability to drive growth even in a declining commercial vehicle market this year.
Kevin Clark:
Well, the HellermannTyton business is probably the best business when you think non-auto, overall non-auto. And that's a business that for the last several years, outside of auto, has been growing high-single, low-double digits. And we'd expect it to continue to grow in that sort of a range for the foreseeable future. I think when you look at the other acquisitions we made and given their mix in mill arrow, industrial and some of the other markets, again, those have been solid mid to high-single digit growth rates.
Joseph Massaro:
Yeah. That's right. And then, as it relates to commercial vehicle, we're still – just given our just given our relatively low penetration, we're still sort of years away from having a cycle discussion about CV. We still have a lot of content growth opportunities. And it's really sort of a greenfield for when we get into some of the CV markets, particularly around SPS, the connector business, HellermannTyton's focus on CV. So, while it impacts us at some level, we're still able to grow well above CV market at this point.
Elena Rosman:
Yeah. So, Erin, that would equate to low-single digit commercial vehicle revenue growth in a commercial vehicle market that's going to be down high-single digits.
Erin Welcenbach:
Great. Thanks for taking my question.
Kevin Clark:
Thanks.
Operator:
Your last question comes from the line of Dan Levy with Credit Suisse. Your line is open.
Dan Levy:
Hi. Good morning. And thanks for squeezing me in. Just had a quick one on the guidance as it relates to the JV deconsolidation. I believe in the past you noted it's EPS neutral. So, just if you can provide some context on the 10% – EPS would've been up 10% before equity income. And also, I see that you have implied performance JV deconsolidation of a 200 bp benefit on margins. So, it's like $290 million. I assume, of that $290 million, that $130 million of that is a non-repeat of the mobility spend? So, just some color on the guidance.
Joseph Massaro:
Yeah. You're about right. We've got about round numbers $40 million, 40-plus-million in Q1. And then, on end of Q1 close, about $130 million sort of geography moves down to the equity income line. And then, that will be augmented by the step up in purchasing accounting that the JV has to go through, which will basically make it EPS neutral. So, the way my comments were – EPS growth is about 2% as reported. If you sort of calculated EPS before the equity income effects of the JV, we're up 10%. So, that's the negative EPS impact from the JV coming in at the equity income line.
Dan Levy:
Great, thank you. And then, just lastly, I wanted to ask a more strategic question on the JV. And it's obviously focused on Level 4 technology. But I think one of the benefits you cited in the past is an opportunity to use the learnings and tech to really refine your Level 2+ and your Level 3 product. But this is a JV and you do have a partner. So, to what extent are expectations really aligned with your JV partner as it relates to the JV's focus on purely a Level 4 technology versus your expectation to leverage this JV to improve your Level 2+ and Level 3 product?
Kevin Clark:
Yeah. Listen, it's closely aligned. It's very closely aligned. So, we have the opportunity to provide products and services to the joint venture and vice versa. And given our historical relationship and our future relationship, there will continue to be real opportunity to share information, share best practices and, ultimately, we hope at least to create incremental commercializeable opportunities. And that's something that our joint venture partner is very supportive of, as are we. So, that interaction will continue.
Dan Levy:
Great. Thank you very much.
Joseph Massaro:
Thanks.
Kevin Clark:
Okay. Well, thank you, everyone. We appreciate you joining us for our Q4 earnings call. Have a great day.
Operator:
And this concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Good day. My name is Chris, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Aptiv Third Quarter 2019 Earnings Conference Call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speakers’ remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] We would like to request that you limit yourself to asking one question and one follow-up question during the Q&A session. Thank you. Elena Rosman, Vice President of Investor Relations you may begin your conference.
Elena Rosman:
Thank you, Chris. Good morning and thank you to everyone for joining Aptiv's third quarter 2019 earnings conference call. To follow along with today's presentation, our slides can be found at ir.aptiv.com. Consistent with prior calls today's review of our actual and forecasted financials exclude restructuring and other special items and will address the continuing operations of Aptiv. The reconciliations between GAAP and non-GAAP measures for both our Q3 financials as well as our outlook for the fourth quarter and full year 2019 are included in the back of the presentation and in the earnings press release. Please see slide 2 for disclosure on forward-looking statements, which reflects Aptiv's current view of future financial performance which maybe materially different from our actual performance for reasons that we cite in our form 10-K and other SEC filings. Joining us today will be Kevin Clark, Aptiv's President and CEO; and Joe Massaro CFO and Senior Vice President. Kevin will provide a strategic update on the business and then Joe will cover the financial results and our outlook for the rest of 2019. With that, I'd like to turn the call over to Kevin Clark.
Kevin Clark:
Thanks, Elena. Good morning everyone. I'm going to begin today's earnings call by providing an overview of our third quarter highlights and our updated outlook for the remainder of the year. Joe will then take you through our third quarter financial results as well as our fourth quarter financial outlook in much more detail. Third quarter revenue sustained strong above-market growth despite declining vehicle production. Revenues increased 6% representing eight points of growth over underlying vehicle production. Operating income and earnings per share totaled $410 million and $1.27 respectively driven by flow through on volume growth in continued traction on our overhead cost reduction and material and manufacturing performance initiatives partially offset by the headwind from the GM labor strike, which totaled $70 million of revenue, $30 million of operating income, and $0.10 of EPS during the quarter. Moving to the right side. In September, we announced our autonomous driving joint venture with Hyundai which we're confident will advance commercialization of Level 4 and Level 5 self-driving technologies and further strengthen our industry-leading capability from the development of advanced driver assistance systems, vehicle connectivity solutions and Smart Vehicle Architecture. We believe it's critical that we continue to invest in our safe green and connected technologies to further expand our competitive moat and better position Aptiv for long-term sustainable growth through organic investments in our engineering capabilities, minority investments in technology companies and the acquisition of companies such as gabocom a bolt-on to HellermannTyton that broadens our existing cable management capabilities. In summary, it was another strong quarter in a challenging environment further validating that our business strategy, our operating model, and our technology portfolio can deliver sustainable strong performance in any environment. Moving to slide 4, let me provide some color on the inputs to the update of our full year outlook. Starting on the left side of the slide our third quarter financial performance benefited from solid revenue growth, and operating income and EPS were above the top end of our guidance range when you exclude the impact of the GM strike. In addition to delivering strong financial results during the quarter we also continue to execute our strategy with the announcements of our autonomous driving joint venture with Hyundai, and the acquisition of gabocom both of which I'll cover in more detail shortly. Moving to the right side although our operating performance during the quarter was stronger than forecasted the GM strike had a significant impact on our financial results in the third quarter and will continue to be a headwind in the fourth quarter as GM works back up to full production schedules during the month of November. Joe will take you through the details in a moment but for the full year we expect a headwind of $250 million in revenue $135 million in operating income and $0.45 of EPS related to the strike. While our operating teams in North America are aggressively working to mitigate these headwinds we've included the estimated impact in our fourth quarter outlook. In addition, foreign exchange continues to be a headwind in 2019 as the euro and RMB exchange rates are weaker. And global vehicle production for the year is now expected to decline 5% versus our previous forecast of down 4% largely driven by the GM strike in North America. Our updated outlook reflects stronger year-to-date operating performance offsetting the increased headwinds from foreign exchange and lower volumes but the effects of the GM strike is an incremental headwind to our prior full year outlook. Turning to slide 5. Third quarter new business bookings totaled $4.2 billion, highlighting our portfolio alignment to the safe, green and connected megatrends. We now believe that we're on track to achieve over $20 billion of full year bookings, reflecting a few large program awards shifting to early 2020. Our updated outlook for 2019 actually represents an increase versus the prior year, when you factor in the current outlook for lower global vehicle production. Our ASUEX segment booked just under $1 billion of new customer awards in the quarter. Our expertise in central compute platforms and sensing and perception systems is helping us deliver smarter, safer and more integrated solutions, both outside the vehicle with advanced active safety systems as well as in the cabin to enhance user experiences. Through the third quarter, active safety, new business bookings totaled $2.5 billion and are expected to reach approximately $4 billion for the full year. And year-to-date user experience customer awards totaled just under $1 billion. Our SPS segment had new business bookings totaling $3.3 billion during the quarter, including over $500 million high-voltage awards, bringing our high-voltage electrification bookings to $1.2 billion year-to-date, on track to meet or exceed last year's record of $2 billion. Our recent customer awards reinforced our revenue outlook for 2022 and underscore our relevant portfolio aligned to key secular growth trends. Turning to our Advanced Safety and User Experience segment on slide 6. Third quarter revenues increased 9%, 11 points over market. The continued strong demand for active safety solutions drove product line revenue growth of 29%, lapping prior year record growth of 68% during the quarter. And as expected, the roll-off of revenues tied to our discontinued Displays business is a headwind in our user experience product line revenues. Our customers are increasingly looking for our support in developing solutions that include more compute power and high-speed connectivity, positioning us to leverage our systems design and validation knowledge, further expanding our competitive moat. Recent industry recognition of our unique capabilities includes our selection as a 2020 PACE Award finalist for Android infotainment compute platform. This revolutionary system will launch first on the Polestar and then on Volvo's popular XC40 model, powering the first Android infotainment system with native Google automotive services and realtime OTA, enabling a best-in-class in-cabin experience and underscoring Aptiv's leading agile solutions development capabilities and role as a partner of choice, serving as the best bridge between the automotive and tech industries. Turning to slide seven and vehicle safety. According to data recently released by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, fatality rates per 100 million miles driven in the United States are declining as active safety penetration increases from initial Level zero applications to Level one applications and beyond. Our investments in scalable approaches to advance safety solutions are not only seeding our next wave of growth, but they're also helping to drive the democratization of advanced safety systems globally. Aptiv's flexible satellite architecture approach has been a game-changer in the industry and has been selected by multiple OEMs to help them democratize active safety solutions across their multiple vehicle platforms. Turning to slide 8. Our recently announced 50-50 joint venture with Hyundai, not only brings us closer to enabling tomorrow's self-driving vehicles, it also helps accelerate the development of today's advanced active safety solutions for our existing OEM customers. Hyundai's ability to advance the development of production-ready autonomous driving systems, both cost-effectively and at scale, along with its shared vision and timeline for application in the robo-taxi market, validate them as the right OEM partner for the commercial deployment of Level four systems beginning in 2022 and beyond. Aptiv is contributing its autonomous driving technology, intellectual property and roughly 700 employees focused on the development of scalable Level four systems to the robo-taxi market. Hyundai is contributing $1.6 billion in cash at close, $400 million in vehicle engineering and R&D services and access to intellectual property. Hyundai will be a close technical partner, strengthening Aptiv's existing foundation in automated driving solutions, while as I mentioned, also enhancing Aptiv's competitive position in ADAS, Vehicle Connectivity and Smart Vehicle Architecture. Aptiv will continue to provide commercial solutions, including compute platforms, perception systems and power and data distribution solutions to the joint venture just as it does to other OEM customers, while maintaining access to the joint venture's automated driving technology. We expect the transaction to close in the second quarter of 2020 and be accretive to both ASUX and Aptiv margins and cash flow. In summary, Aptiv's working to realize our mission of making the world most safe, green and connected, while also delivering outsize shareholder returns. Turning to slide nine. Our Signal & Power Solutions segment is focused on enabling the high-speed data and power distribution technologies that are required to support the advanced safe, green and connected applications that our customers are demanding and are driving sustained growth in this segment. Revenues increased 4% during the quarter, 6 points over market, including the impact of the GM strike. Excluding the impact, revenues would've increased 8 points over market due to strong launch volumes, particularly in Europe and in China. High-voltage electrification revenues increased 30% in the quarter while non-auto revenues were up 34%. During the quarter, we were awarded several new business bookings, including the low-voltage distribution system on the new Rivian truck and SUV electric vehicle platforms and the high-voltage charging inlet for Porsche and Audi. These customer awards underscore our strengths in optimizing power and data distribution for complex vehicle architectures, as well as our ability to flawlessly serve customers through a focused strategy on quality and consistent launch execution. Turning to capital deployment on slide 10. As I previously highlighted, our acquisition of gabocom, which specializes in highly engineered high-quality cable management and protection solutions, expands our Engineered Components portfolio. Gabocom's product portfolio is highly complementary to HellermannTyton's and builds upon our existing telecom product offering, strengthening our capabilities in the most attractive areas of the telecom market and further diversifying our industrial end market revenues. With our track record of successfully integrating accretive bolt-on acquisitions, we're confident gabocom will enhance our cable management portfolio and accelerate revenue and earnings growth in our Engineered Components product line. So with that, I'll hand the call over to Joe to take us through the third quarter results and outlook for 2019.
Joe Massaro:
Thanks, Kevin and good morning, everyone. Starting with our third quarter revenue growth on slide 11. Revenues of $3.6 billion were up 6% adjusted in the quarter, totaling 8% growth over market, as vehicle production declined 2% in the quarter, as expected. Excluding acquisitions, organic growth was 4% or 6% growth over market. And as a reminder, the Winchester Interconnect acquisition closed in October, 2018. Strong launch volume and content gains globally were partially offset by; price of 1.7% in the quarter, the unfavorable impact of FX and commodities and lower North American volume related to the GM strike, which Kevin mentioned earlier. From a regional perspective North American revenues were flat on an adjusted basis, however up 5% in the quarter when excluding the GM strike. Europe revenues were up 14% adjusted, with 15 points of growth over market, driven by the uptick of several active safety and electrification programs. And lastly, our China adjusted growth was 6%, slightly ahead of expectations for our customers and significantly outpacing China vehicle production, down 7% in the quarter, resulting in 13 points of growth over market, driven by launch volume across the portfolio. Turning to slide 12. As Kevin indicated, third quarter operating income and EPS were above the high end of the guidance we provided back in July when excluding the impact of the GM strike. EBITDA and operating income of $587 million and $410 million respectively reflected volume growth in both segments and better-than-expected operating performance, offset by FX, commodity and tariff headwinds, which on a combined basis was slightly better than expected and the impact of the GM strike, which totaled $30 million in the quarter. Adjusted operating income margin was 11.5% in the quarter. However, when you adjust for the headwinds I just mentioned, margins would have expanded 10 basis points to 12.2%. Earnings per share of $1.27 was up 2% reported or 14% excluding those items. Moving to the segments on the next slide. For the quarter Advanced Safety & User Experience revenues grew 9%, or 11 points over market, driven by launches and robust growth in active safety, more than offsetting the impact of the GM strike, the planned roll-off of our audio display product line and the launch cadence and user experience. Operating income performance before the impact of higher mobility investments included unfavorable price declines and higher engineering investments to support launch activity. Our mobility spend for the quarter totaled $47 million and we are tracking to a range of $180 million to $190 million for the year. Turning to Signal & Power Solutions on slide 14. Revenues were up 4% adjusted, representing 6% growth over market. Excluding acquisitions organic growth was 2% or 4 points over market, resulting from strong growth in electrical distribution systems, particularly in Europe and China, driven by new platform launches and increased electrification. And double-digit growth in our CV and industrial product lines, partially offset by the unfavorable impact of the GM strike. EBITDA margin was 18.7%, up 20 basis points year-over-year and operating income margin was 13.5%, down 10 basis points reflecting benefits of volume growth and traction on our material manufacturing productivity and cost-reduction initiatives partially offset by higher depreciation and amortization. Turning to slide 15, highlighting our fourth quarter and revised full year guidance, the volume disruption at GM has caused us to revise our vehicle production outlook lower for the remainder of the year. A detailed update on our production outlook by quarter is included in the appendix of today's presentation. At a global level, we now expect vehicle production to be down 7% in the fourth quarter, and 5% for the full year, versus our prior outlook of down 5% and 4% respectively. As a result, we have reflected our outlook both with and without the impact from the GM strike. Starting with the fourth quarter on the left, including the strike impact, revenues are expected to be flat on an adjusted basis at the midpoint, which reflects $180 million headwind from the strike in the fourth quarter. Fourth quarter operating income is expected to be in the range of $365 million to $385 million, and includes $105 million headwind related to the GM strike, including certain inefficiencies related to ramping up production to full run rate levels in early November. EPS is now expected to be in the range of $0.97 to $1.03. Moving to the full year, revenues are now expected to be in the range of $14.255 billion to $14.355 billion, up 3% at the midpoint. EBITDA and operating income are expected to be $2.252 billion and $1.53 billion at the midpoint respectively. And earnings per share are expected to be $4.65 at the midpoint, reflecting a $0.45 headwind from the GM strike. Operating cash flow is now expected to be $1.54 billion, reflecting lower EBITDA related to the strike. As a reminder, excluding the GM strike impact, the midpoint of our outlook remains unchanged from our prior guidance. Turning to the next slide, we thought it would be helpful to walk the operating income year-over-year for the fourth quarter, and full year 2019. In both cases you see the contribution from a volume growth. In addition to performance benefits derived from our annual manufacturing and material productivity initiatives that ramp over the course of the year, and further traction on our cost savings, and reduction actions. FX, commodities and tariffs have been a headwind throughout the year. And while price has been stable, there has been less of a headwind than expected, tracking below 2% for the full year. Again, excluding the strike, operating income for the year of $1.67 billion at the midpoint, remains unchanged versus prior guidance. While our teams are aggressively working to mitigate the impact of the GM headwinds included in our fourth quarter outlook, we have reflected the probable downside in our revised fourth quarter and full year guidance. Turning to the next slide, as we assess 2020, our long-term financial strategy remains unchanged. As we continue to position the company for better through cycle performance. 2019 year-to-date has demonstrated our ability to deliver on the strategy, despite the challenging macro environment. Our ability to sustain strong revenue growth, even in a down production environment, demonstrates the work we've done to improve our through cycle resiliency, underscoring the value of our portfolio of relevant technologies, which more than offset the combination of lower vehicle production, unfavorable FX and commodities. Additionally, our maniacal focus on ensuring our cost structure remains efficient, positions us to grow earnings, while investing in future growth, where we have the opportunity to significantly accelerate the commercialization of new platform solutions, including next-generation software, compute and vehicle architecture systems. Despite near-term concerns about the challenging macro environment, we are confident in our ability to continue to outgrow the market. And while it is still early in the planning process, we think it's prudent to continue to plan for global light vehicle production, to be a headwind in 2020. Based on current estimates, we expect to see unfavorable year-over-year impact from foreign exchange, and we remain laser-focused on mitigating risk from global trade disputes and regulatory constraints. That said, there are a number of tailwinds as we head into 2020, including our portfolio alignment with key secular trends, enabling us to sustain above-market growth. We see further benefits of our productivity initiatives reflected in our financial performance, as commodity and tariff headwind stabilize. And we will continue to effectively deploy capital, in alignment with our strategy, with contributions coming from our recent portfolio enhancing transactions to benefit 2020. We will provide further insights on the year ahead over the coming months. And give official 2020 guidance in late January, when we report fourth quarter results. With that, I'd like to hand the call back to Kevin for his closing remarks.
Kevin Clark:
Thanks, Joe. Let me wrap up on slide 18, before opening it up for Q&A. Our third quarter performance is further evidence of Aptiv's ability to drive sustained growth and strong operating performance, despite a challenging macro environment. We're confident in our outlook for 2019, which includes roughly 3% revenue growth, representing eight points of growth, over market. Our outlook for the fourth quarter reflects our balanced approach to forecasting industry volumes, in a more uncertain environment, while investing in future growth initiatives, and reaping the benefits of our lean cost structure and our flexible business model. We believe our unique formula further differentiates Aptiv as a company capable of capitalizing on key Global Auto 2.0 megatrends, securing significant customer awards in the fastest growing spaces in the automotive market, while continuing to develop a more competitive business model, both of which translate into a much more predictable and sustainable business, better positioned to perform in any macro environment. And combined with the management team that thinks and acts like owners, fillers outsized value to our shareholders. So with that, let's open up the line for Q&A.
Elena Rosman:
Thank you. Chris, we’ll take our first question please.
Operator:
Thank you. [Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from the line of Emmanuel Rosner from Deutsche Bank. Your line is open.
Emmanuel Rosner:
Good morning everybody.
Kevin Clark:
Good morning
Joe Massaro:
Hi, Emmanuel.
Emmanuel Rosner:
Was looking for additional color on the strike impact both in the quarter and assuming for the full year. Obviously it's a very large flow through of margin impact on the revenue. Can you just may be talk to us a little bit about what drives that, what inefficiencies are? And how do you think about it as we have now moved past the strike and if there's any, sort of, like cost or opportunities associated with that on the margin side?
Joe Massaro:
Yeah. Emmanuel it's Joe. I would say the strike impact most akin to, and we had some of this last year right, sort of, the abrupt plant closures at OEs. So during the strike, we obviously held our workforce, we had over 21,000 impacted employees, seven dedicated facilities to GM were impacted. There was another 22 facilities that were partially supporting GM. So you wind out with a fair amount of cost, obviously, the revenue comes out fairly quickly, staggered down in September as we're able to continue to support the Canadian and Mexican plants. But by the time you got to October, you really had all of that sitting idle. We worked hard to maintain the workforce, so pay the workforce during the strike. That is really an effort to make sure we get back up and running very quickly just given the number of employees that we had. And basically what we've you assumed – obviously, we were down for the full month of October for the most part. From a production perspective, we started shipping this week out of a couple of locations I would say shipments over the last couple of days have been between 10% and 15% of normal volume. We expect that to ramp to 25% to 40% of normal volumes over the next week. And then our current assumption is we're effectively back up and running normalized production and deliveries to GM after November 8th. And that's -- so those are the assumptions that are in the forecast.
Emmanuel Rosner:
Okay, understood. That's very helpful. Second question is on the pricing side. So you highlighted in the full year walk that may be pricing is playing out a little bit better than expected. But you also flagged on slide 13, a 2.7% price decline specifically in the Advanced Safety and User Experience segment, which I guess I don't have a point of comparison from before, but it's not always there on the slide. Can you may be just talk a little bit more about what's going on, on the pricing side?
Joe Massaro:
Yeah. I would say there's two -- I'd go back to what we've always said, which is prices -- pricing is lumpy. So long-term we're very comfortable with that 2% number. And I think as I've said even on these calls there'll be quarters where it's a little less, it doesn't necessarily mean anything. There's quarters where it's a little more doesn't necessarily mean anything. We're really focused around 2%, but it is a lumpy number quarter in and quarter out. Listen, I do think the second point I'd make this year in particular, I think price is favorable overall as volumes have come down. And we do have certain clauses within our contracts that require volume being met at certain levels to continue to provide price downs and we have seen some benefit from that. But again longer term from a financial framework perspective, I've continued to think of that 2% as the right number.
Kevin Clark:
And Emmanuel, it's Kevin. ASUEX traditionally has higher price downs relative to our other segment, our SPS segment. So it's not unusual to have to Joe's point price downs in that range, the range that Joe discussed.
Emmanuel Rosner:
Okay. Thank you very much.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Joseph Spak of RBC Capital markets. Your line is open.
Joseph Spak:
Thanks for taking the question. Joe, I think you mentioned the tariff impact was a little bit better than you expected. Is that related to the GM strike and just some lower volumes, so maybe you bought some less components? Or is there something else going on with that?
Joe Massaro:
Yeah. I would say last Q3, the strike happened a little bit late. That's stuff's, obviously, on the water for bid, so less strike-related. Overall, there's two things, I think overall volume, a little lower on some of those parts so that helps. But our remediation process is we are hitting those milestones from remediation perspective. The Korean operation's up and running. It's been approved by two of the three customers that utilize it. We've started shipping out of that. So I'd say we're on track from a full year basis from where we thought we'd be. You might see a little bit or we do have a little bit of an uptick in tariffs in Q4 related to pulling some of the GM stuff and -- but that's a quarter thing. It's not going to impact our full year view. And remediation's on track.
Joseph Spak:
Okay. And just to understand the strike impact third quarter to fourth quarter where the strong -- or high decrementals in both quarters higher in the fourth quarter. And I think you mentioned some of those restart cost. But then in the answer to Emmanuel's question I thought you said -- you sort of kept everyone going. So I just want to better understand why the decrementals are strong?
Joe Massaro:
Yes. Didn't keep everybody going -- kept -- they weren't in the plan. So obviously kept paying them on temporary layoff -- or temporary layoffs. But there are some ramp cost too just getting them back to work, there's got to be some over time, there's got to be some inefficiencies people have been out for about 40-plus days. So there is an assumption as we ramp in the first half of November. We don't run as well as we were running in August and early September, right? It does take a little bit to turn the system back on. But again, I think manageable within the -- certainly manageable within the quarter and very specific to the GM strike. As you can see in the third quarter. And our sort of overall performance initiatives around manufacturing material are coming in where we expected them.
Kevin Clark:
Joe -- if I can just add, Joe just taking a step back, just to put it in perspective. Within our SPS business, we have seven dedicated plants to serving General Motors in North America, right? That went through a period to Joe's point that weren't operating. And then there's an additional 21 or 22 that served General Motors in North America. So you can imagine as production declines significantly especially in the dedicated plants and to a lesser extent in the partial or shared plants. It's almost -- and it's keenly going through a relaunch of a program again. So you're not going to operate and launch at the same sort of efficiency as you do when a plant normally runs. So it's a significant part of the overall supply chain that needs to be kickstarted again and relaunched. And that has an impact on productivity and efficiency.
Joseph Spak:
Okay. And Kevin just maybe a quick clarification on the Hyundai JV. Like in the press release, you talked about how you can still work with OEMs for ADAS and autonomous vehicles. Is that...
Kevin Clark:
Yes.
Joseph Spak:
Is that with the license backed from the JV? Or does this have to be sort of neo-independent work that Aptiv develops?
Kevin Clark:
So two aspects to that. One -- it's a nonexclusive joint venture one. Two that we have the flexibility from a commercial standpoint to buy technology from the joint venture, but we also have the ability if it were to make sense to develop technology on our own to sell customers. So whatever would be the most optimal financial solution.
Joseph Spak:
Perfect. Thanks.
Kevin Clark:
Thanks, Joe.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Rod Lache of Wolfe Research. Your line is open.
Rod Lache:
Good morning everybody.
Kevin Clark:
Hey, Rod.
Joe Massaro:
Hey, Rod.
Rod Lache:
Had a couple of questions. One is in your bridge for Q4 there's an acceleration in performance. Is that engineering recoveries? And is there anything we can extrapolate from that into 2020?
Joe Massaro:
Yes. Well engineering recoveries are generally heavier in the fourth quarter. That's consistent this year. I think from a -- again I'd go back from a framework perspective. We continue to on a net basis look to that sort of 7% or 8% best in engineering across the business. I'm obviously not going to give specifics on 2020. I think Kevin's talked before I mentioned today, we're obviously continuing to invest in that active safety business just given the opportunities at hand in the bookings. But I -- again without getting into specifics of 2020, I wouldn't expect that to change over the long term.
Kevin Clark:
Yes. Rod, again, if you go back to history, manufacturing material and engineering performance has consistently for us been strongest in the fourth quarter. And I think it's the nature of the initiatives that we've put in place in our plan. I think it's the nature of the incremental initiatives that we've put in place throughout the year.
Rod Lache:
Okay, great. And on Europe, it looks like you're doing 15% or you did 15% growth over market. So obviously that business could withstand a lot, but I was hoping you could maybe just take a step back and speak broadly to what you're seeing in that market as we approach some of the regulatory changes that kick in, in January. Are there any preliminary signs on how production is being altered to capture that? And are you seeing a significant acceleration a signal on power there associated with electrification?
Kevin Clark:
Yes. We're seeing strong growth in our Signal and Power Solutions segment, principally as it relates to or as a result of new program launches Rod. As you know, we've had a number of wins on a -- from a high-voltage standpoint. High voltage is growing very strong, but it's off on a relative basis for us. I'd call it a smaller number, so not a huge revenue impact. As we head into 2020 from 2019 like all of you, I think we have some concern about the robustness of the European market and the likelihood of continued, if not increased weakening in that market from a vehicle production standpoint. So I'd say it's a little bit too early to call, but as we sit and we plan for 2020, we're certainly forecasting production in Europe or would expect production in Europe to be down on a year-over-year basis.
Rod Lache:
Okay, that makes sense. And just one data point if you could share it. Within the user experience business, could you remind us how big that headwind is from the roll-off of Displays? When does that sort of cycle through? And is that -- you've previously talked about a six to eight point growth over market through 2022, so that's accelerating. Is that one of the bigger factors that would lead to that acceleration?
Elena Rosman:
So Rod the Displays business for us is about $200 million. It'll be down about $100 million in total for 2019. So it leaves another roughly $100 million of Displays revenue left that will continue to cycle through over the next one to two years.
Rod Lache:
Okay. Great. Thank you.
Kevin Clark:
Thanks, Rod.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Chris McNally of Evercore. Your line is open.
Chris McNally:
Hi, good morning, guys. I wanted to maybe go through this idea of a 2020 walk. And I appreciate, it's early in the year and you guys are taking a first stab but as we start to sort of put numbers to those deposits and the negatives, do you think it's fair to say that we should use the base ex-GM strike? Or is that maybe a little bit too aggressive, because it's unclear to some of Joe's points about how we'll get that lost EBIT back? So I guess that's my first question. Can we use sort of the $166 million plus in terms of EBIT as the base for a 2020 walk?
Joe Massaro:
Yes. Chris, I think – listen, I think the ex-strike number is certainly we're comfortable with. It was our guidance from July. So from a 2019 perspective, ex-strike that's where the business lands. I think from our perspective what we're looking at is really what happens with vehicle production next year. And as you know, we manage the business to a framework over the long term, certainly try to get that framework in each year but some of that's going to be dependent on vehicle production. And again, as Kevin mentioned, it's a little bit early to start calling numbers, but as we sit and look at things now, vehicle production down 5% this year, I'm not sure it's down 5% next year, but it's probably somewhere between 3% to 5% down next year as we start to add things up. And then we'll go through our exercise of which we always do, where can we get additional performance out of the business? Where can we take out costs? And again as we've consistently said, where do we want to keep investing in the business, particularly from an engineering perspective? I don't know Kevin if you want to...
Kevin Clark:
Yes. No and I think it's important to add as it relates to the fourth quarter, at least the first half of next year, the concept that you're going to have a big rebound or catch-up in vehicle production from General Motors based on the schedules we see and what they already had built in from a launch timing standpoint, it would -- it's tough to assume you get any at least near-term benefit not in the fourth quarter or in the full year. So...
Chris McNally:
And then if I could just follow up on the production for next year because look we clearly share your concerns around Europe. So obviously Europe being down, again it's early but 1%, 2%, 3% that makes sense. But to get to a global number of down 3% I mean I guess we would also need core China down again and then U.S. down core ex sort of GM. So maybe can you just help us? Because I think Europe everyone sort of understands. China no one has really big expectations but we would maybe sort of start to pencil in a flat or an up number. Can you just flesh out some of those thoughts where you're seeing a potential global weakness even going into next year?
Kevin Clark:
Yes. Chris we're still working through plan. And we're not going to go through market-by-market at this point in time but we look at it from the opposite perspective. Play out a scenario where you actually see growth in vehicle production and in which markets. And as we sit here today, we see more headwinds to vehicle production than we see tailwinds. And maybe a part of that is we want to make sure that we have operating plans to execute any -- execute against any downward pressure on volumes. That's probably a certain overlay but we also just want to be very realistic and rational about where we sit economically and where we are in the cycle. So to Joe's point, maybe it's not down 5% but we can come up with a number of reasons where and how it gets to down 3%.
Chris McNally:
Okay, great. I appreciate that. If I could just do the one last follow-on. In that sort of environment of weak production, is there anything that we should think about calling out in terms of when we talked about the audio display rolling off, is there anything else in terms of that's not sort of in line with the content per vehicle trend that you've been seeing in ADAS and particularly electrification next year? Or is at least the content per vehicle sort of should continue in this trend that we've seen over the last several quarters?
Joe Massaro:
Yes. No we would expect the outgrowth and the content per vehicle to be consistent. We haven't seen anything. We all have -- we'll get into maybe some launch lapping some launches on a given quarter those types of things, but waiting for the next launch to ramp up. We've had some big launches this year as you can see particularly in the -- as you go through North America and Europe. And China in the back half of the year are launching strong. So you may have some of that but from a broader strategic take rate overall content per vehicle trends not seeing any changes.
Chris McNally:
Much appreciate it.
Joe Massaro:
Thanks, Chris.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Brian Johnson of Barclays. Your line is open.
Brian Johnson:
Yes. Two more strategic questions around the recent quarters and what they mean going forward. The first is around the decrementals on downside in a volume. Certainly, we understood the impact of a GM strike, but if there's a future recession you're not going to have EPS adjusted for that. So what do the roughly 40% to 50% decrementals for the GM strike given all that stuff imply for decrementals in a U.S. downturn? And secondly what have you learned about kind of similar to summer 2015 managing those sudden volume decreases?
Kevin Clark:
Yes. I think you got it separated and Joe can walk through and give you the specific numbers. But Brian, I think, it's important. Joe mentioned we worked very closely with General Motors to be in a position where when they did resolve the labor issue we could ramp up production as quickly as possible. So there is a fair amount of labor that we -- labor costs that we maintain that we kept in place so that we didn't have to be in a situation where we had to in addition to launching -- relaunching production have to train a bunch of new workers. So we kept them in place versus a normal scenario where we would see vehicle production declining for a more protracted period of time. We would have let them go.
Joe Massaro:
Yes. I think, Brian again -- and we've been consistent. I think decrementals are in that 25% to 35% range a little bit of regional mix and that's what we've worked against. But if you take a plant -- if you take plants down for months that's going to be a higher decremental. If we get a forecast for 2020 vehicle production down a few points that's something we start to address from a cost structure perspective right? There's less shifts. There's less people in the plants. And so I would think of -- the decrementals, we think about working through when vehicle production comes down as we tend to figure out how to deal with that 25% to 35%. To Kevin's point when you get hit with a very important customer is going through a difficult time and we agree to sort of work through it to make sure we're there to catch when they ramp back up and I do think -- as I mentioned I think we'll be ramped back up here to sort of full strength in call it 10 days or less than two weeks that costs some money but we do think it was the right thing to do.
Brian Johnson:
Okay. Second strategic question is was it and maybe it's coincidence that gabocom was announced shortly after the Hyundai deal with the joint venture, but can you maybe talk about how the Hyundai deal affects your cash flow and hence capital allocation and availability for bolt-ons share buybacks et cetera going forward?
Kevin Clark:
Yes. Well, the answer to your first question or comment was just pure coincidence. As you know, we've been very focused on growing our Engineered Components business. And the gabocom business was a great addition to the HellermannTyton product portfolio and business portfolio. It expands in a product line that they're already in the fast-growing telecom space. And it was an asset that our operating team and HellermannTyton knew very, very well, so high confidence in our ability to actually execute. As it relates to the joint venture and how it affects our capital allocation strategy listen we have a strong balance sheet. We generate a lot of free cash flow. We focus on how we grow the business organically as well as acquisition-related. Clearly the structure of the joint venture frees up a couple hundred million dollars of additional cash flow on an annual basis and it gives us more flexibility, but Brian it won't drive any different behavior than the behavior that we have now which is a disciplined approach to either investing our business, pursue acquisitions or return the cash to shareholders. So I wouldn't...
Brian Johnson:
But in terms of availability of cash it does -- does this mean that you don't -- the R&D investment losses if you will had an autonomy at all? Those are no longer coming from -- or we'll get through the accounting in the follow-up but conceptually are those being funded by the cash contribution Hyundai's made freeing up the cash?
Kevin Clark:
Yes. So the joint venture itself right, Hyundai is contributing $1.6 billion of cash at close. The joint venture for a number of years will be funded by that contribution and therefore would reduce the amount of cash that we need to fund or spend on the development of the technology related to automated driving. Therefore the net result is we have more cash flow.
Brian Johnson:
Okay. Thanks.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Dan Levy of Credit Suisse. Your line is open.
Dan Levy:
Hi, good morning guys.
Kevin Clark:
Hey Dan.
Dan Levy:
Hey. First, I hate to nitpick on growth numbers for your high-growth products that are actually still super robust, but we did see -- when you look at active safety and high-voltage electrification we saw that the growth pace -- and I apologize if this was addressed earlier, we did see the growth pace sort of down sequentially. So, up -- active safety up 29% versus the plus 50% clip you saw in the first half. You're cutting your growth expectations slightly going from plus 45% to plus 40%. Same with high-voltage electrification you were plus 30% in the third quarter versus the plus 65% pace we saw in first half. What happened there? Is that just program delays? And then I assume relatedly we also saw your comments on China that although you raised your industry outlook for China for the back half of the year your growth is slightly worse. So, any color on China-related?
Joe Massaro:
Dan I'll take China real quick and then we can go back to the first one. I think from that perspective, obviously, you saw great outgrowth in Q3 expect that to continue. There are a couple of customer-specific delay -- our customer-specific delays in Q4, a couple of our top customers that are -- they're continuing to launch. They're launching on time, but their launch volumes have come down a bit versus the original forecast. So, again, they're launching on time which to us is more important. They have adjusted their forecasts, but more specific to those customers I think than sort of a broader market indication. As it relates to the product line growth rates, they're obviously to your point, still very good I've got to believe industry-leading. You'll get some lumpiness, right? We talked about launch cadence. I mentioned that earlier. You'll have some launches lap. We'll get some lumpiness in the quarter, but obviously, no change to our longer term growth projections over the next couple of years post product launch.
Kevin Clark:
Yes, if I could have one other comment and I don't mean to be -- but there is the law of large numbers, right? So, we have an active safety business that is $1.3 billion in revenues versus under $600 million in revenue just two years ago. So, continuing to grow at north of 60% becomes increasingly challenging just given the nature of the numbers. I don't mean to be defensive, but I think it's fair to assume to Joe's point, there's going to be some volatility based on launch. But as we get into larger numbers, we're not going to maintain the same growth rates on those product lines.
Elena Rosman:
And the active safety, I want to add Kevin, has a forecasting growth rate for 2022 of 25%.
Kevin Clark:
Yes.
Dan Levy:
So, that 2020 that growth rate through 2022 is still intact versus what you -- but I realized you're not in the business of changing your 2022 guidance every quarter, but that's still intact.
Kevin Clark:
Yes.
Joe Massaro:
Yes.
Dan Levy:
I'm sure you'll sign up for plus 30% growth every day of the week. Okay, great. Thank you. And then just second wanted to follow up on the Hyundai. And you basically got a cash infusion of $1.6 billion, but I think you were spending call it $200 million a year, but this $1.6 billion covers you for call it a few years which would imply a fairly significant acceleration in spend. So, where -- did you just feel like you needed to commercialize faster? Was there something that wasn't happening quickly enough that you felt like you effectively needed to double or significantly increase the spend? Just some color on how to think of it.
Joe Massaro:
Yes, I just – well, listen I -- and I apologize. I didn't mean to imply that we needed to double spend or we will ramp-up spend. We'll -- as we work with the joint venture partner and we finalize, we'll develop our final plan. Listen, the reason the joint venture with Hyundai is we ended up with a perfect partner. And we had, as you can imagine, a number of discussions with a number of potential partners over the last few years. And our perspective with respect to what they bring from a vehicle standpoint, from a vehicle platform standpoint, a perfect alignment on strategy as it relates to timing of introduction of product initial approach to the robotaxi market in 2022 and then applications for a broader base of OEM the fact that it's not exclusive. We have the ability to work with other OEM partners if that's what we so elect to do either with technology out of the joint venture or separate development of technology, the fact that we'll continue to sell technology to the joint venture and have access to it. From our perspective, it was just the perfect partner and the right joint venture structure. And the fact that we have a partner that's willing to contribute $1.6 billion in cash at close with no strings attached, right, no gates from a technology standpoint, no gates from a monetization standpoint, we just view them as a perfect partner in a perfect opportunity to actually enhance the strength of our automated driving capabilities, and quite frankly take that technology and probably accelerate the development of our ADAS vehicle connectivity and Smart Vehicle Architecture activities just given the structure of the joint venture.
Dan Levy:
Well, I guess let me ask it a little differently. Were you -- and I know your AMoD revenue outlook. That's still intact, but did you internally have one goal on commercialization? And then when you came to sort of forming this JV you then modified that goal in terms of timing of commercialization?
Kevin Clark:
No, absolutely not. No, absolutely not. No, we were – listen, we've been working on with a number of folks with respect to vehicle partnerships, right? I guess, this further enhances that vehicle partnership and makes it a joint venture partnership, but no nothing changed.
Dan Levy:
Got it. Thank you very much. Appreciate it.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Steven Fox of Cross Research. Your line is open.
Steven Fox:
Thank you. Excuse me, thank you. Good morning.
Kevin Clark:
Good morning.
Steven Fox:
I understand we don't want to get too much into next year, but I was wondering if you could maybe just go back and add a little color on the comment you made about the portfolio aligning more to key secular trends. So in other words, what is changing in the ramp that maybe would be different from the mix this year? And maybe give us a sense for how it could impact growth of a market or margins or anything like that? Thanks.
Kevin Clark:
Yeah. I'm not sure anything's changing in the ramp, right? I think our -- if I think I understand your question, we operate in areas where content per vehicle is growing much faster than vehicle production and that's probably speaking for both of our segments ASUEX as well as SPS. And we'll continue to benefit from some of the larger macro trends towards electrification, towards active safety, towards vehicle connectivity and that will translate to technologies like our multi-domain controllers, our Smart Vehicle Architecture, our high-voltage connectors and cable solutions. So we feel as though we continue to be perfectly positioned, I think -- so when we're talking about...
Steven Fox:
So I'm sorry to interrupt. I guess what I was -- sorry to interrupt, but I guess what I was getting at is like the specific technologies that are ramping next year that maybe aren't in the portfolio right now. Because you have a huge backlog of business on -- a lot of it's based on a lot of next-generation technology and techniques that are needed to produce it. So I'm trying to get a sense of what's…
Kevin Clark:
Some is and some isn't, right? So, high-voltage as an example we have an existing product portfolio on the wire harness and connector side. And it's just a matter of customer adoption, right, and program launches. As it relates to active safety, as I mentioned, we have about $1.3 billion of active safety revenue today. Most of that tends to be in and around central fusion radar solution things like that. I guess, there are areas that we're launching like our satellite radar or satellite architecture approach to active safety, which we'll be rolling out across a number of OEMs over the next couple of years. And then there's a number of multi-domain controllers that we'll be launching over the next few years as well. But I would view that as extension of existing technology versus brand new technology that needs to be introduced.
Steven Fox:
Great. That's the detail I was trying to get at. Appreciate that. And then just as a follow-up, it doesn't sound like this is an issue, but I'm just wondering if you could address any de-specking that you're seeing going on in China or if you're not seeing any at all relative to incentivizing car sales.
Joe Massaro:
No, not -- we're not seeing anything from an overall industry standpoint. We had a customer -- a couple of customers shift out some launches, but that's not de-specking. So we've not seen anything to-date.
Steven Fox:
Great. Thank you very much.
Operator:
Your next question comes from John Murphy of Bank of America. Your line is open.
John Murphy:
Good morning guys. And believe it or not I just had a follow-up on the Hyundai JV. And so it sounds like there's $200 million roughly of costs that comes out and gets put into the JV. There's no associated revenue. Is that correct? Right?
Joe Massaro:
Yes.
John Murphy:
Got it. Okay. And when you think about what you guys did with Delphi Tech in the spin and in this structure, you seem to be sort of masters of portfolio management. Is there anything else that you can think of in your business that is maybe in the works or that you would think of creating another structure for that may be advantageous to value to the total company?
Kevin Clark:
No. John, it's Kevin. And just nothing at this point. Nothing at this point in time. However, as you know we're always focused on evaluating our portfolio and identifying ways where we can better serve our customers and optimize shareholder value, but nothing at this point in time.
John Murphy:
Okay. And then just lastly on slide 6 you talked about the Android infotainment system, but you also mentioned OTA updates on some of the Volvo and Polestar vehicles. I'm just curious when you're talking about a new OTA there, is that on the infotainment system itself or is that on the complete vehicle? And as you think about sort of integrating that into other customers' portfolios, how plug-and-play is that? Or is that something that's very integrated, into electrical architecture and has another lead time?
Kevin Clark:
Yeah. That is integrated into the infotainment system only. But we're actively working on a number of potential programs as OEMs as a part of our SVA initiative to make OTA available and integrated to the broader vehicle. So you can do a better job of more opportunity for life cycle management across all of the controllers in the car.
John Murphy:
Okay, great. And thank you very much.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Ryan Brinkman of JPMorgan. Your line is open.
Ryan Brinkman:
Hi. Thanks for taking my question, which is also on the recently announced joint venture with Hyundai. Of course as mentioned, the transaction brings period financial benefits to margin cash flow, et cetera. I was wondering, though, if the transaction is, in any way a reflection of how quickly you see Level 4, Level 5, rolling out relative to your earlier expectation? Is there any potential for a delay of fully autonomous vehicles relative to at the time of your Investor Day? And then, similarly what is your latest thinking in terms of penetration of lower levels of autonomy, two and three et cetera? Is that looking any faster? And then, finally along these lines, what impacts just any, do you think a sharper industry downturn could have on autonomous penetration rates?
Kevin Clark:
So your first question no. Our view on the introduction of autonomy hasn't changed. So the introduction of industrialized platform in 2022 for Robotaxi use is directly in line with what our plan has always been so no change from that standpoint. As it relates to acceleration in more advanced ADAS system absolutely, we see relative to what we saw a year ago, increasing demands for more advanced Level 2, Level 2+, Level 3-, Level 3, advanced active safety systems, across OEMs, literally in every region. So that's an area of review of opportunity. And we feel as though we're perfectly positioned to benefit from. As it relates to vehicle -- slowdown in vehicle production or markets what's the impact, as it relates to active safety -- active safety cells right? Re-buy rates on active safety, I believe are north of 95%. So that's an area, where we would not expect to see de-contenting or a slowdown in penetration, if you were to see a slowdown in vehicle production. Now I guess there's at certain points if it's severely -- you could see some impact. But just given the discussions with our customers, I think that rate would have to be significant and in any normal sort of slowdown and be highly unlikely.
Joe Massaro:
Yeah. I think Ryan compounding that for some other OEs would be sort of Toyota. And one other OE out there that sort of voluntarily made in that active safety throughout their portfolio. So at this point, we're actually seeing adoption in lower end models probably faster than we have would assumed. But I think, you'd be OE, but even in a more sort of near downturn to de-content active safety given the re-buy rates and the fact that you have others out there with comparable models that have that technology.
Ryan Brinkman:
Okay, that’s very helpful.
Joe Massaro:
And on the high-voltage side, we've got Europe and China. They've got to hit government mandates so we wouldn't expect de-contenting there either.
Ryan Brinkman:
That's great color. Thanks. On commodities, I see you're slightly raising the full year headwind for FX and commodities. I'm guessing on FX, that some of the metals really continue to fall off. Copper I know hasn't fallen as much as steel or aluminum. And a lot of the savings we passed down to customers. So how does the trend in the direction of commodities -- what does it imply for next year? Could you be looking at actually a pretty decent tailwind?
Joe Massaro:
Certainly, a reduced headwind at this point, I think, we're watching with happens with resin. Resin prices have stabilized. So, it wouldn't be -- on the commodity side wouldn't necessarily be anticipating big headwinds. I think, a little too early to call a tailwind. Obviously, FX will have an effect. Even if the FX rates settled today. It didn't change for next year. We'd have some catch-up in the first couple of quarters. So, that's what we're implying from the sort of headwind on the FX side.
Ryan Brinkman:
Okay, got it. Thank you.
Operator:
Your final question comes from Armintas Sinkevicius of Morgan Stanley. Your line is open.
Armintas Sinkevicius:
Great, thank you for taking my question.
Joe Massaro:
Good morning.
Armintas Sinkevicius:
Just looking at the revenue guidance here, ex the GM strike, it's a bit lower. If you could help bridge that or where that's coming from that would be helpful.
Joe Massaro:
Yeah. It's -- hi Armintas it's Joe. You've got about half of its FX and commodity flowing through. The other half as we mentioned earlier, just a little bit of customer-specific items in China. But you're talking round numbers $40 million to $50 million in total. It's about half and half.
Armintas Sinkevicius:
Okay. And then, we haven't had many questions here on the color on the Smart Vehicle Architecture. If you could provide us with an update, how your conversations are going that will be great as well.
Kevin Clark:
Yeah. Conversations -- again continued dialogue with a dozen OEMs. We have the advanced development programs that we've talked about. I would say from an industry standpoint, the industry recognizes the fact that our vehicle architecture needs to change. So, some OEMs, principally the OEMs in Europe are working more aggressively on driving that change. But it's an area of opportunity for Aptiv and there's a high level of interest.
Armintas Sinkevicius:
Okay. And my last one here, fourth quarter versus third quarter, in the guidance that you provided ex-GM, suggests you feel pretty good about the pickup here -- the sequential pickup. Can you remind me some of the puts and takes here to bridges from third quarter to fourth quarter on margin?
Joe Massaro:
Yeah. You’ve got -- yeah, listen you've got a couple of things right? You have again ex-strike. If you remember, last year we had about a $35 million performance hit in fourth quarter from some temporary plant closures of a couple of OEs that hit us, almost similar situation of the strike, short-term plant closures where we had to hold the workforce in place. That's about $35 million. And then what you're seeing is the ramps in performance that we expected in the back half of the year. Q3 obviously, we saw that come through. I know we talked last quarter about there being a little bit of a step-up from H1 to H2, but we feel confident in getting that performance and we are seeing that come through. And again, it's a little bit of -- we referenced it. Really sort of our material and manufacturing savings plans tend to run sort of build throughout the year their annual plans. And it's just a little bit of a function of setting a sort of a calendar business plan. But we continue to see those develop through -- the cost-saving actions we took in the first half of the year are effectively in place at this point from a headcount reduction as such.
Armintas Sinkevicius:
Okay, great. Thank you for taking the question.
Joe Massaro:
Thank you.
Kevin Clark:
Thank you.
Operator:
That was our final question. I will now turn the call to our presenters.
Kevin Clark:
Thank you everybody. We appreciate your time. Have a great day.
Operator:
This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Good day. My name is Chris, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Aptiv Second Quarter 2019 Earnings Conference Call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speakers’ remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] Thank you. Elena Rosman, Vice President of Investor Relations, you may begin your conference.
Elena Rosman:
Thank you, Chris, Good morning. And thank you to everyone for joining Aptiv’s second quarter 2019 earnings conference call. To follow along with today’s presentation, our slides can be found at ir.aptiv.com, and consistent with prior calls, today’s review of our actual and forecasted financials exclude restructuring and other special items and will address the continuing operations of Aptiv. The reconciliation between GAAP and non-GAAP measures for both our second quarter financials, as well as our outlook for the third quarter and full-year 2019 are included in the back of today’s presentation and the earnings press release. Please see Slide two for a disclosure on forward-looking statements, which reflects Aptiv’s current view of future financial performance, which may be materially different from our actual performance for reasons that we cite in our Form 10-K and other SEC filings. Joining us today will be Kevin Clark, Aptiv’s President and CEO; and Joe Massaro, CFO and Senior Vice President. Kevin will provide a strategic update on the business and then Joe will cover the financial results and our outlook for 2019 in more detail. With that, I would like to turn the call over to Kevin Clark.
Kevin Clark:
Thank you, Elena and good morning everyone. I'm going to begin by providing an overview of our second quarter highlights and then provide a perspective on the second half of the year. Joe will then take you through our first quarter financial results as well as our full year financial outlook in more detail. Second quarter was in line with the guidance we provided back in May, while EBITDA, operating income, and earnings per share were all above the high-end of our guidance range reflecting very strong operating performance even in the challenging macro environment. Revenues increased 4% representing 9 points of growth over underlying vehicle production, reflecting strong above market growth across both segments and every geographic region. Operating income in earnings per share totaled $405 million and $1.33 respectively, driven by volume growth, overhead cost reduction and very solid manufacturing and material performance. Our portfolio's industry leading advanced technologies led to another strong quarter of new customer awards totaling $5.5 billion breaking the year-to-date total to just under $10 billion. To put it simply, it was another good quarter in a touch environment further validating our portfolio of safe, green connective technologies, flexible operating model and sustainable business strategy. Moving to Slide 4, given a weak macroenvironment, I would like to provide a backdrop for our full-year outlook which remains unchanged. Starting on the left, we now expect global vehicle production for the year to decline 4%, versus our previous forecast of 3.5%. Driven by a 5% decline in automotive light vehicle production, principally driven by further weakness in China, partially offset by a flat commercial vehicle market. Foreign exchange continues to be a headwind as euro and RMB exchange rates are weaker than the prior year. Higher commodity prices, principally specialty resins remain a headwind as a result of tight supply conditions globally and lastly, U.S. China tariffs also continue to be a headwind although we are aggressively working to remediate the impact on our results. However, as I mentioned, our full year outlook for revenue, EBITDA and operating profit remains unchanged as a result of continued strong growth over market driven by both content per vehicle growth and market share gains, our balanced customer, regional and end market exposure, and incremental overhead cost reductions, as well as the timing related to material and manufacturing productivity initiatives, all of which are gaining traction and translating into margin expansion in the second half of 2019. In short, our strong performance in the second quarter gives us confidence in our full year outlook and our ability to execute in a challenging macro environment. Turning to Slide 5. Second quarter new business bookings totaled $5.5 billion highlighting our portfolio alignment to the safe, green and connected megatrends. In our Advanced Safety & User Experience segment our expertise in central computer platforms and sensing and perception systems are helping us deliver smarter, safer, and more integrated solutions both outside of the vehicle with advanced active safety systems as well as in the cabin through enhanced user experiences. In the second quarter, Active Safety new business bookings totaled $1.4 million, which puts us on track to exceed $4 million [ph] in 2019. Our Signal & Power Solutions segment had new business bookings totaling $3.7 billion during the quarter including $1.9 billion of electrical distribution and $1.8 billion of engineered components bookings. Within those numbers we booked over $350 million in high-voltage electrification awards bringing the year-to-date total to roughly 800 million and we're on track to meet or exceed last year's record of $2 billion. Turning to our Advanced Safety and User Experience segment highlights on Slide 6, second quarter revenues increased 8% 13 points over market. The continued strong demand for Active Safety Solutions drove product line revenue growth of 53%. And as expected, the loss of revenues is tied to our displays business, contributing to a decline in our User Experience product line revenues. During the quarter, we awarded the active safety system for the Jeep Grand Cherokee and Wagoneer [indiscernible]. Additions to our previously awarded satellite architecture programs with FCA, further underscoring our industry leading position in advanced ADAP [ph] solutions. Turning to Slide 7, our unique ability to leverage our capabilities in both the brain and nervous system of the vehicle has perfectly positioned us to deliver the advanced architecture necessary to support the feature rich, electrified and highly automated vehicles of the future. Smart vehicle architecture or SVA is an optimized and [indiscernible] architecture that lowers the total cost of ownership for the OEM, while also unlocking the opportunity for new business models. During our 2019 Investor Day in early June, we highlighted the two advanced development awards we received this year. And while customers are evolving their vehicle architecture roadmap at different speeds we see many of them transitioning to more scalable systems enabling full SVA in the future. Underscoring that point, we've won 11 different domain controller platforms and recently we were awarded the Zone Controller for a premium European OEM effectively representing our first power data center win. This award represents another step in the continued commercial validation of the Aptiv's SVA approach as well as our unique ability to conceive, specify and deliver next generation architecture solutions. Turning to Slide 8, our Signal & Power Solutions segment is focused on enabling the high-speed data and power distribution technologies that are required to support the advanced, safe, green and connected applications that our customers are demanding. Revenues increased 2% during the quarter, 7 points over market. High-voltage electrification revenues increased 67%, while commercial vehicle and industrial revenues were up 36%. During the quarter we were awarded several new business wins including the signal distribution on the new Tesla Model Y and the Model 3 launching in China. The low voltage systems for the Fiat 500 Battery Electric Vehicle, recall that last quarter we won the high voltage system as well. In the new electrified large SUV platform in China with a premium OEM. These awards of our low and high voltage systems underscore our strength in optimizing electrical distribution for complex architectures as well as our ability to serve customers globally through consistent launch execution. Turning to Slide 9, all of our global customers are aggressively working to electrify their vehicle line ups. Beginning on the left side, you can see the progression of CO2 emissions in Europe. Between 2010 and 2018 CO2 emission declined at an average rate of 2% per year. However, to meet future targets, OEMs will need to reduce CO2 emissions by a much more aggressive 7% per year through 2021 and then sustain 5% annual reductions through 2030. These are challenging targets and OEMs have been responding by aggressively accelerating their electrification technology roadmaps. Moving to the right side of the slide, Aptiv's high voltage new business workings and revenue growth tracks the pace of deployment of our customers. Between now and 2022 OEMs are expected to launch roughly 45 new high voltage platforms globally, spanning hundreds nameplates representing 13% of global vehicle production. Based on our 4.5 billion of new bookings since 2016 high voltage electrification is among our fastest growing product lines. With revenues expected to be over a billion in 2022 a 40% compounded growth rate over the period. Turning to Slide 10, continued above market growth in our Signal & Power Solutions segment is partially the result of our focused diversification strategy, allowing us to expand our capabilities into the commercial vehicle and industrial markets, both organically and inorganically. Our [indiscernible] revenues are approximately 14% of total sales today, that's up from just 6% from 2015 and are expected to reach 25% by 2025. As previously highlighted, our acquisition of Winchester Interconnect provided us with a solid platform to build upon and to execute our Engineered Components Group diversification strategy. As shown on the slide the Winchester management team has been actively adding accretive connectable bonds with a number of other acquisitions in the pipeline. In the last 12 months Winchester acquired W Technology the supplier of rotatable connectors and precision machine components strengthening our capabilities in the oil and gas space. And more recently Falmat, which specializes in ruggedized mission-critical cables and assemblies further expanding our industrial revenues. Now consistent across these businesses is the high cost of product failure and the need to meet the challenge in temperature, vibration and other design specifications. We are more confident than ever in Winchester's ability to serve as a platform for additional bolt-on opportunities in the engineered component space. Before I turn it over to Joe, I'd like to take a minute to recap our 2019 Investor Day. For those of you who participated either live or via the video webcast, I hope you came away with an even better understanding of our business strategy, our advanced portfolio of sources and solutions, and rigorous execution culture. For those of you who missed the event the video replay remains available on our website for your review. To summarize, we're focused on building more predictable and sustainable business with robust downturn resiliency. Now we are positioned to outperform in any macro environment. Ownership mindset means that we remain disciplined and focused on driving a successful execution of our strategy and continuing our track record of outperformance, the combination of which delivers significant value to our shareholders. So with that, I'm going to hand the call over to Joe to take us through the second quarter results and outlook for 2019.
Joseph Massaro:
Thanks Kevin, and good morning everyone. Starting with our second quarter revenue growth on Slide 12, revenues of $3.6 billion were up 4% adjusted, totaling 9% growth over market as vehicle production declined 5% in the quarter. Excluding acquisitions, organic growth over market was 6%. As a reminder, KUM is now fully integrated and lapped itself at the end of the second quarter, while Winchester Interconnect will lap in the fourth quarter. The strong launch volume and content gains we had in 2018 continue into 2019, helping to offset price of 1.6% in the quarter and the unfavorable impact of FX and commodities. From a regional perspective, we saw strong performance in every major region of the world despite lower vehicle productions year-over-year. North America revenues were up 1% adjusted with 3 points of growth over market. Excluding acquisitions, organic growth over market was down 1% driven by the previously discussed exit of the display audio product line and low passenger car volumes overall, partially offset by key launches in the quarter. Europe revenues were up 7% adjusted with 13 points of growth over market driven by the uptick of several active, safety and electrification programs. And lastly, our China adjusted growth was negative 6%, significantly exceeding China vehicle production resulting in growth over market of 10 points. Although China vehicle production was lower than our expectations, we continue to see strong growth across our key product lines. I will provide an update on our production outlook for the year shortly. Turning to Slide 13, as Kevin indicated, second quarter EBITDA, operating income, and EPS were all above the high end of guidance we provided back in May. EBITDA and operating income of $583 million and $405 million respectively reflected the impact of lower vehicle production, FX, commodity and tariff headwinds, partially offset by our cost savings and reduction actions, as well as the positive benefit of volume growth. Operating margin adjusted for FX commodities and tariffs was 12.1%. Tariffs were $6 million headwind year-over-year, although favorable in the guidance reflecting both lower demand levels, as well as some benefit from our tariff remediation actions. Earnings per share were $1.33 with $0.19 above the midpoint of our guidance, $0.08 from higher operating income driven in part by traction on the cost savings and reduction actions noted earlier, $0.08 better on tax expense inclusive of increasing benefits from the changes to structural operating model. These benefits will be sustainable going forward as I'll cover in a moment. Net below the line items were also slightly favorable. Moving to the segments on the next slide, for the quarter, Advanced Safety & User Experience revenues grew 8% or 13 points over market driven by new launch volumes and robust growth in Active Safety more than offsetting the planned roll off of our display audio product line and the infotainment launch cadence and User Experience. Operating performance before the impact of higher mobility spend included higher engineering investments to support our strong backlog of new wins particularly in Active Safety. As a result, we expect Active Safety revenues up 45% [ph] for the year with low double-digit operating margins. Our mobility spend for the quarter totaled $48 million and we remain on track to our target of approximately $180 million for the full-year. Turning to Signal & Power Solutions on Slide 15, revenues were up 2% adjusted totaling 7% growth over market. Excluding acquisitions, organic growth over market was 3% driven by strong double-digit growth in our high-voltage electrification product line. EBITDA margin adjusted for the dilutive impact of FX, commodities, and tariffs, was 19.2%, up 20 basis points. Operating income margin on a comparable basis was 14.1%, down 50 basis points. Given continued weak macros, Slide 16 provides an update of our global vehicle production assumptions underpinning our revenue outlook for the year. We saw vehicle production in the second quarter track our expectations overall down 5% in total as Europe volumes were better than expected offset by a weaker China. However, extended macro uncertainty, regulatory constraints, and continuing weak vehicle sales, particularly in China, have caused us to revise our vehicle production outlook slightly lower for the remainder of the year. At a global level, we expect vehicle production to be down 2% in the third quarter and 4% for the full year versus our prior outlook of down 3.5%, driven by a percent decline in automotive light vehicle production, partially offset by a flat commercial vehicle market. From a regional perspective, we expect China production to decline 15% in the third quarter and 13% for the year. And while we continue to experience strong growth over market in China driven by double-digit growth in our key product areas, we are preparing for structurally lower industry volumes going forward and continue to take actions to adjust our cost structure in the region. Turning to Europe, we continue to expect vehicle production to be flat in the third quarter and down 4% for the full-year, driven by lower customer demand and program launch delays. Lastly we see North American production largely unchanged from the prior guide. Despite the challenging global market we continue to expect our portfolio of safe, green and connected technologies and balanced regional customer and industrial market mix to more than offset the automotive macros contributing to growth over market in every region. As a result, our growth above market rate for the year is slightly higher and up 9% to 10% while our revenue outlook of $14.625 billion at the midpoint remains unchanged. Turning to Slide 17, third quarter revenue was expected in the range of $3.6 billion to $3.7 billion, up 8% of the midpoint or 10 points of growth over market. As I mentioned that assumes global vehicle production down 2% in addition to $1, €12 and an RMB of 6.90. Operating income and EPS are expected to be $425 million and one at a $1.30 at the midpoint respectively and includes estimated tariffs of $16 million in the quarter. Moving to the full-year, no change in our 2019 outlook in the midpoint for revenue, EBITDA and, operating income. Revenues are expected to be in the range of $14.525 billion to $14.725 billion up 5% to 6%. We continue to expect adjusted EBITDA and operating income to be $2.4 billion and $1.6 billion at the midpoint respectively. And our outlook includes over $90 million of FX and commodity and $44 million of U.S.-China tariff headwinds for the full-year. In aggregate, we believe these are mostly short-term impacts that should improve as we head into 2020. And given the strength of our revenue growth and bookings pipeline we continue to invest in our key technologies and capabilities. EPS is now expected in the range of $5.05 to $5.15, $0.10 higher at the midpoint from prior guidance, reflecting our updated tax-rate assumption of 12.5%. Looking forward to 2020, we expect our tax rate to remain in the range of 12% to 13%, reflecting our relocation to Dublin and continued alignment of our structural operating model. Operating cash flow is expected to be $1.65 billion with restructuring cash outflows in 2019 of a $150 million and CapEx unchanged at roughly $800 million. Turning to the next slide, we thought it would be helpful to provide more detail on the full-year outlook from a first half versus second half perspective. Starting with the revenue walk on the left, second half revenues expected in the range of $7.3 billion to $7.5 billion driven by incremental volume from new program launches and a ramp ups in active safety, engineered components, and high-voltage electrification, partially offset by lower production volumes in the second half. Moving to the walk on the right, we expect $920 million of second half operating income at the midpoint. Headwinds from FX, commodities, and tariffs, are offset by the benefits of volume growth and continued traction in our material and manufacturing performance initiatives that Kevin referenced earlier, as well as the added benefits from our continued cost savings and reduction actions. In summary, the strength of our revenue growth in the face of vehicle production declines underscores the strength of our product portfolio, while operational performance continues to reflect the benefits of remaining maniacal about our cost structure and our ability to self fund investments in future growth. With that, I’d like to hand the call back to Kevin for his closing remarks.
Kevin Clark:
Thanks Joe, let me wrap up on Slide 19 before we open it up for Q&A. Our second quarter performance was further evidence of Aptiv’s ability to drive sustained above market growth and deliver on our commitments despite a though macro environment. We’re maintaining our outlook for 2019 which includes roughly 5% to 6% revenue growth representing 9 to 10 points of growth over market. As Joe mentioned, our outlook for the second half of the year really reflects our balanced approach to investing in future growth while reaping the benefits of our lean cost structure and our flexible business model. Now we believe our unique formula further differentiates Aptiv as a company capable of capitalizing on the key global Auto 2.0 megatrends, while also building a more predictable and sustainable business with robust downtown resiliency, better positioned to perform in any macro environment and continuously delivering value to our shareholders. So with that, let’s open up the line for Q&A.
Operator:
Thank you. [Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from the line of David Tamberrino of Goldman Sachs. Your line is open.
David Tamberrino:
Great, good morning, gentlemen.
Kevin Clark:
Good morning.
David Tamberrino:
First question is really on your organic growth of the market, I think that got raised slightly, what’s really driving that, is it improved take rates, is it driven by customer pull-through, is it OEM choice? And then for the fourth quarter, can you just remind us how much in acquisitions is going to be rolled into that versus pure growth over your market forecast?
Kevin Clark:
Yes, David, let me – why don’t I take the acquisition question first and then I’ll start the first very question. Q4 will be very small, we closed on Winchester in mid-October, so you should think that business runs roughly $85million or so a quarter, your fraction of – you know fraction of that. As it relates to the growth over market, I think it’s really in the sort of in the product lines that we’re talking about and it’s really across a number of regions where I continue to see strong growth in active safety. I would say that the penetration as well as new launch discussion, high-voltage clearly, particularly in China really around launches and some of the new programs we have both on the - you know both within the China locals as well as the multinationals.
David Tamberrino:
Okay, and was there something different that you've seen throughout the year that gave you the confidence to raise that or is it conservatism earlier in the year, just wondering what you're seeing just again, because you do have your global production coming down, but the growth of the market going up and obviously revenue, basically unchanged?
Kevin Clark:
Yes, I would say that’s just more of the math as it’s working out as we’re of pulling, you know we’re looking at customer schedules, who’s up, who’ s down, we’re seeing some pickup in that part of the business, active safety and electrification relative to what's coming down. Remember, particularly Signal & Power Solutions with content on one out of every 3.5 vehicles we've got, we've got a fair amount of market in that business. So it's really sort of the market is coming down, while those product lines are sort of at or slightly above expectations.
David Tamberrino:
Understood. Then my followup is on the validation of your smart vehicle architecture, this Zone Controller award, is that a business that you were able to win as a result of the two advanced development awards that you have in place, is that the next step from a satellite architecture that you already have in place? I was just trying to understand where to fit that in for the story as you continue to provide solutions for some OEM partners, but just wondering if it was the, if it's the vision that you have for a re-architected vehicle long term that allowed you to win it or if it's just the next evolution of a program you are already on.
Kevin Clark:
Yes, so no, David, it's with a completely separate OEM. So it's the next step in the evolution of smart vehicle architecture. We think it's again further validation of the direction that the industry is headed in and what we're trying to drive and we feel as though we're competitively well positioned. And we would expect, as we referenced in our comments, 11 domain controllers plus the Zone Controller, you'll continue to see more awards in the future.
David Tamberrino:
Okay. And then this is just - is this more complicated and more complex than the satellite architecture product that you currently have out there?
Kevin Clark:
Well, it's a part - it's a - you should consider it's a part of the satellite architecture, it's what enables the various domain controllers to actually operate. So it's ultimately a part of the complete SVA solution.
David Tamberrino:
Understood. Thank you.
Kevin Clark:
Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Emmanuel Rosner of Deutsche Bank. Your line is open.
Kevin Clark:
Good morning, Emmanuel.
Emmanuel Rosner:
Hi, good morning. So my first question is around the second half walk, obviously very strong ramp-up of margin expected between the first half and second half, and the biggest bucket in your walk is obviously performance, 220 basis points. Could you give us a little bit more color around what actually goes in there or anything that you could sort of dimension for us in terms of size of buckets? And from high level point of view, is it mainly a function of being able to catch up the costs to where the lower production is now as volumes stabilize?
Joseph Massaro:
Yes, hey Emmanuel, it's Joe. Let me go through a bit here. So, you're right, there certainly is a ramp up. I think when we talk about performance, generally talking about manufacturing efficiencies, material savings, some of the cost savings obviously hit that line, but our cost savings also include sort of the other overhead categories as well as SG&A. So really the bulk of that number is material in manufacturing performance and efficiencies. A couple of things to think about, if you compare H1 to H2 on its face, you're right, it's a significant step up. If you remember from last year, we had about $65 million of inefficiencies in the back half from OE plant closures, when they were sort of closing unexpectedly for a week or two, that totaled about $65 million. So if you think about our performance increase H1, H2 is a little over $200 million, about - a little under $200 million, about $65 million of that is going to be sort of lapping that performance issues. We did about $90 million of performance in the first half. So if you look at that we're sort of running at about $40 million higher second half to first half, which is a step-up we're certainly going to have and we have initiatives to achieve that number. We've obviously got to work to accomplish it, but from our perspective, you know $40 million of additional performance and over a 6-month period is something that's within our capabilities to achieve.
Kevin Clark:
Yes, Emmanuel, I think if you look historically, we tend to have more performance in the back half of the year, the second half of the year material manufacturing than in the first half, so there is also a natural cadence there.
Emmanuel Rosner:
And okay, that's helpful color. And then second question would be on your wiring business, one of your smaller competitors was essentially making noises around giving some fairly substantial price reductions, and you know, not too clear what the drivers are from the outside. And I’m just, I was just curious, from your perspective, are you seeing a different competitive environment on the wiring or harness business, and if not overall are the actions from one of your smaller competitors, can they have an impact on you?
Kevin Clark:
Yes. Listen, I think, based on Joe walked you through the reconciliation and gave you an update on price down. So, you know and we ended the year or - we ended the quarter, I'm sorry, roughly 1.6%. We're consistent in our outlook that will be in the 1.5% to 2% range. Yes, you've - we get this question asked pretty regularly and you've heard our response with respect to the markets, we're in a challenging industry and the pricing discussion is always a tough discussion. We would tell you that the underlying environment really hasn't changed. I think, you know, each competitor or each supplier may have different situations affecting price, but the overall market dynamics from a price standpoint, are - continue to be tough just as they've always been. As it relates, can a competitor, can a competitor affect the overall market? I guess it's possible, but at the end of the day you have to flawlessly execute and deliver on that, we will launch 2200 programs this year and you have to flawlessly execute and deliver on those programs and that's what tends to be the most important, that and the technology that you're bringing to bear to the customer. And we view our wins, our major wins with customers like Tesla on a global basis to be validation of the value that we bring, the technology we're bringing in our operating attention.
Joseph Massaro:
The only thing I'd add Emmanuel is that, there is competitors and there's competitors, right, are competitors for us in that SBS [ph] business, on the electric distribution side are really the Yodakis [ph] of the world, there are who we bump up against the most with Sumitomo a bit of a distant third, and that when you think about our business focused on KSK or win specific builds really large global platforms, complete electrical distribution systems, that I'd like to think - I think I know who you're talking about. Obviously, I'd like to think we're at a much different level than they are in terms of that type of business.
Emmanuel Rosner:
Great. Yes, that's very helpful. Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Itay Michaeli of Citi. Your line is open.
Itay Michaeli:
Great, thank you. Good morning, everybody. Just a first question on China, it does look like the growth of the market share in Q2 was below the original guide. It does seem that you had that accelerating in the back half of the year. I was hoping you'd give us a little more color about the drivers there perhaps program, timing, and so forth.
Kevin Clark:
Yes, hi Itay it’s Kevin, and Joe can comment. It's just program timing. So if you look at the back half of the year, you'll see continued strong, an acceleration growth partly due to incremental launches in the back half of the year versus the front half, but continued strong market outgrowth and an absolute revenue growth in Q3 and Q4. So there's a little bit of movement there that we experienced in Q2, but have not seen any incremental retiming of programs or cancellation of programs at this point in time.
Itay Michaeli:
Great, that's helpful. And then a second question on Slide 18, I just want make sure I'm interpreting it correctly. So the volume bucket and the production bucket, are you effectively saying that your backlog and content is going to be more accretive than the declines in pressure, you'll see on the base business, because some suppliers, talk about the backlog coming in at a lower margin than the base business, just curious how you're experiencing to that in the second half and even beyond?
Kevin Clark:
No, the margin coming out of backlog Itay is consistent with what we would have expected and consistent with what we've historically seen, and we've had somewhat higher decrementals in Q1 as production was coming down quick and we were adjusting sort of capacity and cost structures, decrementals in Q2 were very much in line with that 25% to 30% that we've always guided to. So again, we're dealing with, what I'll call sort of the cost structure on the capacity side. But when you look at the profitability of the business coming out of backlog, it's very consistent with where we thought it was going to be with the existing business, and certainly haven't seen that impact.
Itay Michaeli:
Yes, yes, but just to clarify on Slide 18 that the difference between volume and production is, is production more kind of base business and the volume ties to content and backlog or am I not reading that correctly?
Kevin Clark:
Yes. Production would be, we try to make a difference between the market in production, just the vehicle production coming out again, SPS has a large part of market and then the incremental volume would be what I'll call sort of the growth over market the content or I think of it more of growth over market, the content or I think of it more as growth over market but obviously content has a role to play, there.
Itay Michaeli:
Great. That's definitely helpful.
Joseph Massaro:
Yes, Itay just - I want to just make sure I put out one comment. If your question ultimately is when you look at the financial profile of the business that we're bringing on versus the financial profile of the business we currently have, the profile of the business we're bringing on at run rate is more profitable business than our existing business. So the dynamics, profitability standpoint of the business have not changed, it's just as we have reviewed with you at our Investor Day in June.
Itay Michaeli:
Yes, that's exactly what I was getting at. That's very helpful. Thanks so much.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Dan Levy of Credit Suisse. Your line is open.
Dan Levy:
Hi, thank you. Good morning. Thank you. I wanted to actually just start with a question on your back half margins and I know you're not giving 2020 guidance, but obviously 12.5% give or take is pretty high. And I believe that your 20, that your three-year outlook on margin was roughly 12.4, so why wouldn't 12.5% be a fair starting point to go into 2020, meaning what are the things that maybe don't repeat into 2020 that you have in the back half of the year?
Kevin Clark:
Oh I think as we've talked about, we've got programs in place to expand margins on an annual basis. We've often talked about margin in a particular quarter can be lumpy depending on time of year. I think the other thing is, Q4, a lot of our material and manufacturing savings programs tend to be annual programs. We start with initiatives in the beginning of the year and build through them and they tend to have greater level of benefit in the back half of the year. And then we sort of start over from a program and initiative perspective. So I think we are, we remain confident in the margin expansion guidance we provided at Investor Day, but certainly wouldn't expect it to happen in one quarter than hold for the subsequent years, there will be some fluctuations, particularly with the volume changes. I think the other thing and so we may have, one of the things we focus on is preservation of OI dollars as well, just not necessarily the margin rates. So as we look to cost savings, how can we make sure we are preserving those dollars even in a tougher market.
Dan Levy:
Understood. And then just on China, you know, obviously you're holding your margin despite weaker market outlook, and just some broader choppiness or volatility there. So, and this is I think something we'd seen for other suppliers where just the volatility in the launch schedule has may be thrown off the margin. So what is it that you're able to do? And I know you talk to just being more vigilant on the cost structure in China, but what is it that you've been able to do that you're doing that's allowing you to maintain that profit or that margin despite that continued volatility, especially in China around launches and we know the importance of launches to your business and your growth?
Kevin Clark:
Yes, I think Joe will go through the numbers in detail. I think first Joe made the comment earlier with respect to our focus on the absolute operating income dollars and commitments that we make and as volume has declined in China, first and foremost, we've been weighing in front of it. We've reduced headcount in China in line with vehicle production declines and overlaid on top of it a number of initiatives from a material and manufacturing standpoint to offset the volume decline. We're able to do that because of our 14 entities there, some of which we wholly own some of which are joint ventures, we have complete management control. So we drive the strategy, we drive the tactical decisions and the team in China has done an excellent job reducing our cost structure. Joe made the comment about kind of coming to terms with kind of a new baseline from a vehicle production standpoint, making the, taking the actions necessary to reposition the business for a lower level of vehicle production than what the industry had expected, just a year or two ago. They have done a tremendous job. Joe can talk about what, what they've been able to do from an OI and OI margin standpoint.
Joseph Massaro:
Yes, I think, Dan if you look at, I mean right now, within our forecast, we're expecting to hold effectively EBITDA and OI dollars in 2019 consistent with flat with the dollars, not the margin rate, flat with 2018. And I think you know there's - to Kevin's comments obviously staying upon it staying on top of it. I'd also - and we've talked about this a lot right? We try to get ahead of it as much as we can. We certainly haven't been perfect in calling China vehicle production down, but I'd like to think we were out ahead of it. We were focused on Q4 of last year being lower than others expected. We've been trying to get ahead of it. So that - our programs in China from a cost containment perspective started this time last year, as we started to see the weakness in the back half. And again, we haven't called the volume perfectly, but I'd like to think we're almost closer than anybody at this point in terms of the market coming down. You know, I think the other thing we talked a lot about at Investor Day was, our focus going all the way back to 2016 on through cycle performance. We assumed we were going to get to this point at some, you know at this point in the cycle, sooner or later, and wanted to be ready for it. So some of our overhead reductions, the cost reductions that we're talking about now, the basis for those started back in 2016, 2017. So I think being ahead of it and sort of assuming at some point it's going to happen, has helped us - help us stay ahead of it. We try to keep pace with it over the last couple of quarters as well.
Dan Levy:
If I could just toss in a quick followup to, obviously, a lot of sort of cost visuals and vigilance and focusing on maintaining the profits. To the extent you have a downturn in another region and obviously, Europe is in the cross hairs, is it the same mentality there as well?
Kevin Clark:
Yes. Listen, again as Joe used the word, you've heard us use it before we're maniacal about our costs and we've reduced our corporate overhead by roughly 50%. I think roughly $200 million plus over the last couple of years. And on top of that very focused on how we operate from a manufacturing material and SG&A standpoint. So, those are things that are in flight now to the extent we need to make more aggressive course corrections in light of more significant downturns, those are things that we will do and we're positioned to do, but the organization is already focused on driving cost out. It's a part of our DNA.
Dan Levy:
Great, thank you very much.
Kevin Clark:
Thanks, Dan.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Brian Johnson of Barclays. Your line is open.
Brian Johnson:
Yes, good morning. Just a followup on the question earlier about the profit pressures in any competitors systems, the broader issue could very well be that there certainly are attractive growth over market categories in auto parts when most of which you are very active in active safety, infotainment, electrical distribution, signal processing and so forth. That's attracting competitors who want in on that growth. So the question is, are there pockets of revenue in those categories that are less defensible in terms of the margin moats around those and that as you kind of roll out two or three or four years, you would perhaps not aggressively seek renewal of that business and thinking of some things that in wiring harness for example. And so, how do we think about how you balance the ability to hold the mid-teens margins versus hold the growth over market?
Kevin Clark:
Yes. Listen, at the end of the day. Brian, we're bottom line focused, and I think the point you make is a good point. I would tell you today, I don't think there is any area that we operate that we would consider commodity like, whether that be in vehicle architecture or that be in areas like Active Safety or User Experience. Those are areas that we've decided to exit including areas like displays that our reception systems that we sold thermal. As it relates to a specific vehicle architecture, I think Joe made the point, we don't do build-to-print sort of work, we're really about full-body harnesses where we can work with OEs to optimize the full harness a big portion of our business is KSK related where we're actually building harnesses on a customized. Then VIN number by VIN number basis and that's really tough to do. And I think there are players in this space, who have tried to compete in those sort of areas, who had significant challenges competing and operating, which has translated into issues with customers, which has translated into very low profitability and cash flow. And ultimately I think what it translates to is the industry recognition of complexity and again customers most focused on liking price, but most focused on service and the ability to work with them to engineer out complexity and cost.
Joseph Massaro:
Yes, Brian, the only thing I'd add to that, and we often talk about the moats as it relates to Active Safety or the brain side of the business. There is a moat around that SPS business and it's in part driven by capability. Global scale, capability, again we're out of Yazaki, TE Connectivity, Amphenol level from a competitive perspective. In Kevin's point that's KSK big part of the business, global platforms, I think where we're the only provider of full electrical distribution systems and a very large part of that business. A lower margin, lower cash flow competitor deciding they're going to somehow attain those capabilities and a relatively short period of time is not something that we quite honestly foresee. We're very focused on competing with who we compete against and remaining competitive, but there is a set of capabilities that SPS faced that would be hard for others to duplicate quickly.
Brian Johnson:
Thanks. And sort of a separate but also forward-looking question around future business, any updates on NuTonomy in terms of just the pace towards Robo Taxis. We've seen crews get more conservative about their timing, yet at the same time we've seen folks like make a major investment into Argos [ph] so kind of, I guess two sub questions, one pace of progress towards Robo Taxi business and two, are you open to taking strategic partner money in that business or is it something you want to continue own a 100% of?
Joseph Massaro:
Well, in terms of operationally, we now have vehicles on the road, either testing or operating through the list network only less, but operating now in Shanghai, Singapore, Germany, in Boston Pittsburgh, in Las Vegas, the fleet in Vegas is part of the Lyft network is dozens of vehicles. I think we're up to 60,000 rides 1.3 million miles. And I think roughly 55 or 60 hubs that ultimately deliver to 220 different locations in Las Vegas. So we continue to operate and operate very well and collect some revenue in a lot of, learnings. With respect to mobility on demand and automated driving, listen, our view is, we feel as though we've always been reasonably prudent and conservative that you'll start to see vehicles on the road in 2022 to 23 with meaningful revenues in 2025. Our current plan from a technology standpoint is, have a driver out in the car for testing purposes in 2020. So from an introduction standpoint, technology standpoint, our view hasn't changed. With respect to taking capital, listen, whatever makes the most sense from a financial return standpoint. As you know, we feel as though we have the capital today and the balance sheet to fund investment in the business. We're funding investment in the business to deliver on the timetables that we've talked about to the extent it made sense to partner with someone strategically and financially, that's something that we consider doing.
Brian Johnson:
Thank you, very much.
Joseph Massaro:
All right, thanks.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Chris McNally of Evercore. Your line is open.
Chris McNally:
Hi, thanks so much. Hey guys. Two questions, so the first, if we think about on a divisional basis versus plan you discussed sort of by the quarter, but if we think about production, got a little bit worse, but for SPS you didn't have to change the guide, so can we just assume that the benefit is the outgrowth? And then obviously the same question for you, it seems like bought the organic down by 2.3%. It's a little bit more than the production change, is there a mix component and just maybe just a little bit of color, particularly on the change in the AS&UE, the outgrowth in the first half was actually pretty good.
Kevin Clark:
Yes on SPS your right Chris, I mean it is the continued out growth coming from the product line, high-voltage, the connection systems business, HellermannTyton continues to have a good revenue growth year. On AS&UE it's very platform driven, there is not a no, it's not -- it's not really even a market or a particular region, it's very specific platforms. We did have a couple of OEs that have trimmed production but not take rates not penetration of actually trim vehicle production that has given us a little bit of headwind from a sort of a growth over market perspective. But I would say all of it is within what you would expect in this kind of market, there is no particular outlier. There is no product cancellations. There is no change in take rates that type of thing. I think it's really just tweaking around production cycles and sort of launch volumes.
Chris McNally:
Perfect, makes sense. And then the second question, it totally makes sense the 12.4% margin in the second half, it's not an indication because of seasonality for 2020. But if we -- if we sort of dive in maybe to add to AS&UE's margin where sort of the implied even if it's 7% plus for the full year, you're finally starting to get a little bit of the pick up here. And I think you gave the detail on the mobility spend, it's annualizing almost $200 million. We're finally lapping some of this is just pure investment, so that we can get the incremental margin from Active Safety. Could you talk about just over the next 12, 18 months, do we need to make another step level on mobility or can we start to finally think about whatever the revenue growth in that end market is that we could start to get your typical more 20%, 30% type incrementals because we finally lapped the investment in new nuTonomy and Mobility?
Joseph Massaro:
Yes. We've talked a couple of times and certainly the significant step up. We don't foresee a significant step up in Mobility spending into next year. Right? It Could the 180 be 190 or 200, we're obviously starting the planning process and need to look at that, but it certainly wouldn’t be what you saw from sort of a '17 or '18 type step up. So depending on sort of where you are with us, sort of where you're calling the average somewhere between 180 to 200 or do we start to get consistent around that level. Yes, that's our view at the moment, as we go through the plan to start the planning process. On underlying AS&UE margin or AS&UE margin ex-Mobility this in the product lines, particularly Active Safety are delivering where we expected them to be broke 10% in Q1. We're on track for what I'll call a low double-digit, sorry, high double-digit to low teens exit margin coming out of Active Safety in this year from an exit perspective. Now, what we're, what we're continuing to do is have opportunities in that business around Pursuit's, new business wins, those types of things. And as we have in the past, we'll be making decisions around investing in what we think makes sense, but certainly in a product line perspective, we are seeing that we are seeing the margin develop as we expected.
Kevin Clark:
Yes Chris, I just want to echo Joe's comment, I think it's all about the near-term trade-off for margins versus the longer-term opportunities to widen the mode active safety. I think that - those are the, those are the trade-offs we will have to consider obviously additional programs need to drive incremental returns to the baseline business and incremental margin expansion. But you could get caught up a bit in that timing. And as you know, a number of these advance active safety programs that we're talking about the scalable level one, level 2 plus, level 3 minus that our global for global are complex programs, but the opportunity to be awarded those programs and to be awarded at the right sort of margin rate and expand our competitive moat, you know is something that we'll have to evaluate versus the near-term investment resources to launch and develop those programs.
Chris McNally:
So to be clear, I mean essentially if ADAS continues at this extremely high, high rate 40% plus, essentially the E of RD&E for ADAS will continue. So you'll get good incremental margins because you're lapping Mobility, but it will still be an investment period because the growth is there, particularly for the complex programs.
Kevin Clark:
Yes. RD&E will continue. I think the percentage of revenue will vary a little bit on how much of that growth comes within existing OEs. How much is a craft in with is with new OEs with new programs and obviously as a part of that process we leverage to reuse as much software as much of the systems capability as we can on each program.
Chris McNally:
Okay, much appreciate it.
Kevin Clark:
Thanks, Chris.
Operator:
Thanks, Chris. Your next question comes from Dan Galves of Wolfe Research. Your line is open.
Dan Galves:
Good morning, guys. Thanks.
Kevin Clark:
Good morning.
Joseph Massaro:
Good morning. You guys have been real good on calling China production and your second half production forecasts are quite a bit below, kind of other numbers that we've seen basically about as bad as the first half, are you guys seeing something in China that looks like a kind of an incremental weakness in retail demand that would make the second half, just as bad as the first, even though the comps get a little bit easier
Kevin Clark:
Yes, I think from our perspective. Dan, I mean near term in China, although there can be some volatility. We're really operating off of the production schedules that we see today. And just a perception perspective based on an aisle at the time we spent in China interacting with our management team that we're really not going to see a turnaround in the balance for the balance of the year, but the government is not pushing really hard. There isn’t a lot of consumer demand that it's not really clear if the inventory shake out is completely happened it and just facing the reality of what we think the China market looks like at this point in time.
Dan Galves:
Okay. Got it.
Kevin Clark:
Joe, if you want to add anything to it.
Joseph Massaro:
No, Dan, I'll just say, and we've talked before, our fundamental philosophy tends to be run rate until proven otherwise on some of these vehicle office on some of these vehicle production numbers. And when you look at, to ask Q3, it looks a lot like looks a lot like Q2 with some launch activity starting late Q3 and Q4 that should help a little bit, but there's just, to Kevin's point we're not seeing a lot of reason for change at the moment.
Dan Galves:
Okay, got it. And just following up on that, looking towards kind of six pretty bad quarters in a row in China, can you give us an update on the health of the Tier 2 supply chain there, some of the customers. Are you seeing any stress in China or if you've noticed anything globally, if you could just give us an update on the health of the Tier 2 network?
Kevin Clark:
Listen, I think from a Tier 2 network standpoint, it's something we watch very, very, very costly maybe there has been some incremental pressure with some of the smaller local players, but we have at least minimal exposure from a customer standpoint, roughly 75% of our revenues are with the multinational JVs and then the balance with the top 5 or 10 local OEs. So again, it's something we watch closely from an exposure standpoint, but we haven't seen any, any real change from a, from a risk profile or how people are acting so - but it's something that we're watching very closely.
Dan Galves:
Okay, thanks a lot. I much appreciate it.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Joseph Spak of RBC Capital Markets. Your line is open.
Joseph Spak:
Thanks everyone. The first question, hey Kevin and Joe. And like you guys were I think one of the first or certainly on the earlier side to sort of talk about some of the slower ramps of launches in Europe. And I think China and we've obviously seen other companies sort of talk about that since then. Any update from what you saw sort of last quarter to this quarter as we go forward?
Kevin Clark:
Yes, nothing really meaningful at this point in time since our conversations in May, earnings call in May nothing meaningful at that point. A little bit of shifting and small - very small programs in China, but nothing that would - we would raise to your attention at this point.
Joseph Spak:
Okay. And then just two, I guess maybe sort of clarification on housekeeping but one, on the commodity FX line, I think you were sort of pointing to it like a $110 million hit to EBITDA and I think that was about 80 prior. Is some of that because of copper coming down and that sort of pass-through? And is that actually helping your margins a little bit?
Kevin Clark:
Yes. Joe, copper doesn't really hit the OI. It's just really that margin rate optics, because it's a pass-through, it's very minimal flow through. So it - last year, as copper ran up, you get margin rate optics go in one way, and this year to the extent we're passing through lower prices, you could get it the other way, the 90 million or so we have him for the but it's captured in that adjustment for FX and commodities. It's all in that line.
Joseph Spak:
Okay. So it's more FX and I guess resins and it's really --
Joseph Spak:
It's FX - yes, it's FX and it's the 90 million or so that we have in for the full year is really FX and resins. Copper per se again is rate optics, but not a margin dollar hit.
Elena Rosman:
And the impact of the $110 million for EBITDA and $90 million of OI.
Joseph Spak:
Okay. And just lastly, it looks like you did maybe three quarters of the $450 million in buybacks for - that your guidance suggests thus far, but your free cash flow is generally more second half weighted. So is there a little bit more opportunity there?
Kevin Clark:
We will continue to remain opportunistic as we always do.
Joseph Spak:
Okay. Thank you very much.
Operator:
Your next question comes from John Murphy of Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Your line is open.
Unidentified Analyst:
Good morning, everyone. This is Alan Smith on for John. First question around the smart Morning. First question on the smart vehicle architecture, I think it's pretty clear, you're seeing traction with OEM customers with the advanced development awards. And then on top of that the recent don't controller awards as you look at the competitive landscape. Is it fair to say you're well ahead of your competition on this front or are you seeing some fast following among some of your peers as you've been fairly successful in year awards.
Kevin Clark:
Listen, we think we're uniquely positioned as we've talked about active and our product portfolio and capabilities having capabilities both in the history… [Audio Gap] SBA over time and that electrical architecture system as being similar in anyway.
Kevin Clark:
Yes, to, well listen, I think it will take taking a step back. We think it's similar in a number of areas that ultimately lead to ask VA and is Joe talked about competitive made driving a competitive moat in areas like advanced ADAS systems, in our view, ultimately leads to leverage in areas like SVA and leveraging the competitive moat in and around User Experience in combination with active safety ultimately leads to ultimately leads to SVA and having the capabilities in around each of each one of those areas in a strong competitive position number one in active safety obviously leading the charge on SVA puts us in a position, it's probably not exactly like engineered components where you have low cost and high cost of failure. The solutions are higher value add but high, high cost of failure but we think there's a real benefit and having the first mover being in the first-mover position .
Unidentified Analyst:
Great, that's very helpful. And second question on the macro side, as you think about US ,China tariffs and trade friction that may be much more structural been transitory, can you remind us how your footprint realignment actions to Korea and potentially some other countries is progressing and could this be sped up or push more aggressively in the event that trade tensions escalate?
Joseph Massaro:
Yes, hi. From a tariff we continue to make progress. We saw a little bit of a little bit of help from on the remediation side in Q2, we were obviously up $6 million year-over-year on tariffs, but below the guide by about 6 million, so that's in part lower volumes unfortunately it's us on the best way to avoid tariffs we just had lower so the tariff impact on things move across the border, less of it, but we did see some traction and remediation the Korean plants in validation with customers we'd expect that to be completed by the end of the third quarter for the most part. So certainly, tariff remediation for '19 we're working hard to do more, but it's probably more of a 2020 as we start to work that down with particularly with the Korean manufacturing facilities so; all is tracking according to original plan. Again we didn't, we didn't wait to see if tariffs went away got right on it, obviously, we'd like to try to do more in 2019. But certainly feel we're positioned well to eliminate a good portion of that 44 million going into 2020.
Kevin Clark:
Yes, I think it's important to Joe's point you said this before, we don't view these transitory we view them as they're going to be they're going to be in place for quite some time. So, as Joe said, we've taken action is other permanent from a supply chain from a sourcing from a manufacturing standpoint, and we'll continue to do that and I would say we're moving as fast as we can. One of the biggest issues quite customer schedules longer term, we operate off the discussions with customers to get a feel for what their plans are as well as you sources like TAM in China and IHS we feel as though we've made taken up fairly conservative position and have balance the risk in the opportunities in our current outlook is a possible that it could be worse. It is possible. We don't think it's likely, and we think we've taken actions to get in front of the situation. The event it is a bit worse. On the flip side, we could be overly conservative on the fourth quarter and there could be some upside. Now we're not planning on it. We're not operating in that way. But based on our 25 years of experience in China we feel as though we have the appropriate amount of conservatism built into our into our outlook .Yeah. Stephen, I think it's a little bit of just definition of stabilization. We've got China down 15% in Q3 down 13% for the year, which is still a double-digit decline in Q4. So I, it's, again it's I guess relative stabilization and maybe where it was in Q2 and Q3, but we still have a down fairly significantly on your original question around performance in the H1 versus H2. I go back to an annual question in the response, obviously when you look at it optically the performance numbers, a big number of the back half of the year round numbers a little less than $200 million. Some of that 65 million is off lapping of performance issues last year from the plant closures the OE plant closures. If you recall, we started to get back half of last year into a cycle with the OEMs that they were sort of adjusting inventories by closing plans for a week or 2 that got very hard for us from a offset perspective when versus longer term scheduled changes that was about $65 million. So if you, if you take that out so to take the comp a year-over-year effect of that out. We're looking at about 130 million of performance material manufacturing performance in the back half. We did 90 in the first half. So, you actually, right? It's 40 higher, but our view, just given our initiatives tend to be back-end loaded. We've been working on this for a while. In a $40 million increase over the next six months is not something, it's a lot of work. We've got things to do, but it isn't something that we don't know how to do, which it should be. It should be manageable within the initiatives we have going on.
Unidentified Analyst:
Great, that's very helpful. Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from David Kelly of Jefferies.
David Kelly:
Thanks for squeezing million. And I'll keep it. I'll keep it quick as well. Just on the active safety bookings. Could you provide some color on the mix of that ramp. I mean, how much is Level 1 versus Level 2 to at this point. And is there any much Level 2 plus ramp taking place also?
Kevin Clark:
Yes, I don't have the Level 1 versus Level 2 right in front of us. A number of those programs, a significant number of those programs. David are effectively skill programs at scale can be anywhere between level one and level 1 level 2 level 2plus actually. So I'd say the bulk of them kind of sit within that sort of framework Joe can comment assumptions related to revenue on level one versus level to a level to twice.
Joseph Massaro:
Yeah, I think just as you'd expect, the way this technology is rolling out. Right. The bulk of revenue today tends to be at the level 1, level 2 why level to minus type systems. It's what you see in the cars today. That's what we're producing today to Kevin's point, if you look at the types of things we're booking, whether it's the PSA in the Board when some of the others. Those tend to be the scalable systems where the OEs in ourselves and have come to appreciate that the best and most cost effective way to put this technology to vehicles is to have like for like systems across platforms and across levels of optionality, so you're not redesigning systems. Those tend to be what's in bookings at the moment for launches over the next couple of years.
David Kelly:
Okay, great, thanks. And just quickly on the same theme. Looking at the engineering components bookings, which also ramped up in the quarter, anything to call out non-automotive there is or is that at this point we're still strictly mostly on the automotive side booking business.
Kevin Clark:
No, I was, and I think our CV and industrial business continues to it continues to grow. We continue to book. Well, our CV business was up 17% or 18% in the quarter and we continue to book to those levels. Our expectation is we finish 2019 at about 14% non-auto CV and industrial revenues. It's not too long ago, if you go back a few years, that was at 5% go back even a couple of years before that was less than 2%. So that progress continues.
Kevin Clark:
Right, great. Thank you.
Operator:
Our final question comes from Maynard Um from Macquarie. Your line is open.
Maynard Um:
Hi, thank you and good morning. You talked about an acceleration in electrification OEMs need to meet more stringent emission centers this might be a little bit of an obvious question. But how do you think about managing the secular transition from ICE towards electric and I know you have visibility from your programs, but if there is a steeper acceleration towards electric, are there any meaningful changes you need to make for the transition or is it mostly incremental.
Kevin Clark:
No, it's mostly incremental and electrification electrification is good for us. Right. To the extent there is more power train electrification it means there is more content within our signal Power & Solutions segment at higher margins, so it's something that's a positive overall is the question is leading capacity and capability that’s something that actually can be easily manufacturing facilities. But so I think we have full [indiscernible] portfolio that very attractive, very competitive and again more electrification the better. We actually do not have a detrimental CPV going from BEV to internal going from internal combustion to be EV what we lose on say connectors on an engine itself are actually offset by the additional electrical content for BEV. So from content per vehicle perspective, the BEV is ICE to be EUV is actually neutral to slight positive for us.
Maynard Um:
Okay, great. And then can you talk about on the AV side new scenes and the sharing of AV data, the industry looks like it's kind of following suit with your data sharing strategy, do you think this levels the playing field on the AV side. And does this help you reduce any R&D burdens for Aptiv?
Kevin Clark:
No, listen, I think from our perspective, anything that accelerates the development of automated driving. One makes the world safer, two it makes the market bigger, three virtually all of the automated driving players are out there, our customers in some way, shape or form, whether it be perception systems, whether it'd be vehicle architecture, whether it'd be data. So it creates additional profit pool. So to the extent we can accelerate the development for ourselves as well as other players out there, we view it as a positive.
Maynard Um:
Great, thank you.
Kevin Clark:
Thank you.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, that was our final question. I will now turn the call over to our presenters.
Kevin Clark:
Okay, thank you very much. We appreciate you dialing in. Have a nice day.
Operator:
This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Good morning. My name is Jack, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Aptiv First Quarter 2019 Earnings Conference Call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speakers’ remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] Thank you. Elena Rosman, Vice President of Investor Relations. You may begin your conference.
Elena Rosman:
Thank you, Jack. Good morning and thank you to everyone for joining Aptiv’s first quarter 2019 earnings conference call. To follow along with today’s presentation, our slides can be found at ir.aptiv.com, and consistent with prior calls, today’s review of our actual and forecasted financials exclude restructuring and other special items and will address the continuing operations of Aptiv. The reconciliation between GAAP and non-GAAP measures for both our Q1 financials, as well as our outlook for the remainder of the year are included at the back of today’s presentation along with other supplemental tables. Please see slide two for a disclosure on the forward-looking statements, which reflects Aptiv’s current view of future financial performance, which may be materially different from our actual performance for reasons that we cite in our Form 10-K and other SEC filings. Joining us today will be Kevin Clark, Aptiv’s President and CEO; and Joe Massaro, CFO and Senior Vice President. With that, I would like to turn the call over to Kevin Clark.
Kevin Clark:
Thanks Elena and good morning everyone. I'm going to begin by providing an overview of the first quarter highlights and provide some perspective on how we’re thinking about the balance of the year. Joe will then take you through our first quarter financial results as well as our updated financial outlook in greater detail. First quarter revenue EBITDA, operating income and earnings per share all finished above the guidance we provided back in January, reflecting our ability to drive sustained outperformance even in a more challenging macro environment. We delivered 4% revenue growth despite vehicle production declining 5%, representing nine points of growth over market. The result was strong demand for our portfolio of technologies aligned to the safe, green and connected mega trends. And operating income and earnings per share totaled $345 million and $1.05 respectively, driven by volume growth and our industry leading cost structure. The strength of our portfolio of advanced technologies resulted in over $4 billion of new customer awards, which combine with an expanding funnel of new business opportunities put us on track to exceed our prior year record of $22 billion. Given our win rate and new business bookings in the size and scale of our funnel of new business opportunities, we believe its important that we continue to invest in our safe, green and connected technologies even in this more challenging macro environment, thereby further expanding our competitive mode and better positioning Aptiv for sustained value creation. In summary, it was another strong quarter further validating our operating model, portfolio of advanced technologies and our business strategy. Given the increasingly challenging and uncertain macro landscape, I’d like to provide some context for how we are thinking about the remainder of 2019 on slide four. Relative to our initial expectations, our first quarter financial performance benefited from stronger outgrowth in weaker endmarkets, the result of stronger than expected new program launches and content gains globally. In light of the weaker macro environment, we’ve implemented incremental overhead cost reductions in addition to manufacturing and supply chain initiatives to improve our cost structure and be in a position to fund our growth investments. In addition, we repurchased 226 million of our stock opportunistically taking advantage of market discounts, while maintaining a strong and flexible balance sheet. And we now expect share repurchases to total $450 million for the full year. Moving to the right side of the page, we’ve seen a deterioration in key mass [ph] growth underpinning our initial 2019 outlook. Joe will take you through the details in a moment, but we now expect global vehicle production to be down 3.5% for the year versus down 2.5% previously, primarily driven by weaker demand in both Europe and China. In addition, since our outlook in January the euro has weakened relatively to the dollar and commodity prices principally related to resins has seen recent spikes as a result of tightening supply conditions. While our teams are aggressively working to mitigate these impacts with cost reductions and productivity initiatives, the combination of weaker end markets and the changes in FX rates and increased commodity prices are enough to cause us to lower our outlook for the remainder of the year, as we look at the current implied second half ramp up in vehicle production forecasts -- forecasted by many industry experts, we believe our balanced outlook represents a much more realistic perspective. Turning to Slide five we're focused on taking actions that increase the flexibility of our business model and position the company for better true cycle performance. Despite a revised outlook for lower vehicle production resulting from the current weaker macro trends, we remain confident in our ability continue to outperform, driven by increased vehicle content and market share gains, the benefit of more -- of a more balanced customer, regional and market exposure, and our relentless focus on optimizing our cost structure. Our DNA is wired to constantly deliver material and manufacturing efficiencies, while also reducing overhead costs. In 2018, we eliminated 50 million of overhead and stranded costs related to the powertrain spinoff. Turning to 2019, we're executing initiatives targeted to save an incremental 40 million of run rate overhead and stranded costs, including manufacturing and engineering footprint rotation of cost countries, supplier chain initiatives to improve supplier quality while reducing our overall spend, and corporate and back office consolidations that improve service levels while reducing costs. While we expect the benefits of these initiatives to gradually layer in over the coming quarters, we're continuing to prudently fund growth investments including increase engineering investments to support the higher demand for advanced active safety solutions. And increase investment to fund the further development of our automated driving platform, smart vehicle architecture, advanced development programs, and connected services data monetization opportunities. In summary, the constant focus on optimizing our cost structure improves our operational efficiency and frees up investment to fund future growth. Turning to slide six, first quarter new business bookings totaled $4.3 billion, further highlighting our portfolio alignment to the safe, green and connected megatrends, as well as our strong competitive position in several advanced technologies. In our advanced safety and user experience segment. Our expertise in central compute platforms, sensing and perception systems and machine learning is helping to deliver a safer, smarter and more integrated solution both outside the vehicle, with advanced active safety systems, as well as in the cabin, through enhanced user experience and interior sensing solutions. And as a result, we booked eight hundred -- six hundred million and three hundred million of active safety, and info and user experience awards respectively during the quarter. We believe a strong start to the year and active safety bookings puts us on pace to see 2018 as record with well over 4 billion of new awards estimated for 2019. Moving to our single Power Solutions segment, engineer components booked almost 1.7 billion in new customer awards during the quarter. And we also booked over 350 million in new high voltage electrification awards interact [ph] on track to exceed last year's 2 billion of new business awards. Turning to segment highlights in advance safety and user experience on Slide seven, revenues for the first quarter were up 7% that's 12 points over market. The continued strong, consumer demand for Active Safety Solutions drove product line revenue growth of 69% and is expected the roll off of revenues tied to our displays business contributed to a modest decline in Info & User experience revenues. During the quarter, we booked an important Conquest win with Porsche and Audi to supply a smart actuator charging interface controller, which manages the flow of data coming into the vehicle while it charges. Industry experts have identified this as a potential intrusion point out of the vehicle and as such, this is an exciting growth area for our connectivity and cyber security product lines. Turning to slide eight, our investments in scalable vehicle architecture are seeding our next wave of growth, helping to drive the democratization of new mobility solutions globally. As a result, Aptiv is uniquely positioned to benefit today from our smart vehicle architecture, and automated driving investments as the demand for advanced active safety solutions increases. We booked multiple, scalable level two plus customer awards leveraging the integration of our unique satellite architecture and active safety domain controller with our perception systems. Underscoring our technology leadership position last month our ASU X [ph] team was recognized with a Pace award for our work with Audi under automated driving satellite compute platform. This industry first platform developed as part of our strong partnership with Audi. There's been a game changer in the industry and has since been selected by six other OEMs to help them realize and in effect democratize active safety solutions across our multiple vehicle platforms, which underscores our mission. As a complexity of technology increases, OEMs appreciate our value and contribution towards getting the architecture right today, which is critical to delivering the feature rich, how we got into the vehicles they need in the future. Moving to the right of the slide, we recently announced the expansion of our autonomous driving activities to the China market. Shanghai is now the fifth city where we’ve localized autonomous driving operations, joining Singapore, Las Vegas, Boston and Pittsburgh. Our plan is to bring autonomous driving to China, by partnering with the transportation network company and others in the mobility ecosystem, brings us one step closer to the broader adoption of automated mobility in the region. Turning to Slide nine, our single Power Solutions segment is focused on next generation vehicle architectures, including high speed data and high power electrical distribution, that enabled the advanced technologies that will shape the future of mobility. Revenues increased 3% during the quarter, 7 points over market despite the weakening macros driven by 65% sales growth for a high voltage electrification products and almost 40% growth in commercial vehicle and industrial revenues. Underscoring our industry leading position in vehicle architecture, we were recently awarded the high voltage electrical architecture on the Fiat 500. This award validates the increasing need for optimized high voltage architecture across a full range of vehicle types. Before turning it over to Joe, I'd like to take a minute to preview our upcoming 2019 Investor Day theme and topics of discussion. You've heard us talk before about our strategic imperatives and the importance of building a strong, sustainable business that delivers long term value to all our stakeholders, through the relentless focus on having the right people, a portfolio of market relevant advanced technologies, and a continuous improvement mindset. We believe this formula leads to a more sustainable business that is better positioned to perform through cycle. And we've seen evidence of this the last two years with record growth over market despite declining vehicle production, putting us on the path to deliver on our 2020 to revenue targets in a weaker macro environment. Positioning us to see the investments in future growth initiatives that will lead to new solutions and new markets, and that will allow us to achieve our vision for the company in 2025, which we believe results in a differentiated and compelling investment thesis for Aptiv. In summary, we believe Aptiv is well on its way to becoming the Tier 0 partner of choice for our customers, capable of delivering the advanced architectures and optimized solutions that are making the future of mobility real. With that, I'll hand the call over to Joe to take us through the first quarter results, and review our outlook for 2019.
Joseph Massaro:
Thanks Kevin. And good morning, everyone. Starting with our first quarter revenue growth on Slide 11, revenues of $3.6 billion were up 4% adjusted despite a 5% decline of vehicle production in the quarter. From an organic standpoint excluding acquisitions, we estimate revenue increased approximately 1% with organic growth over market of 6%. As a reminder, KUM is fully integrated, and will lap itself in the second quarter, while Winchester Integration continues and will lap in the fourth quarter. The strong launch volume and content gains we had in 2018 continue in 2019, helping to offset price and the unfavorable impact of effects in commodities. From a regional perspective, we saw outperformance in every major region of the world despite lower vehicle production across the board. North America revenues were up 7% adjusted, driven by multiple new platform ramp ups and the addition of Winchester interconnect. Europe had 11 points of growth over market, driven by the uptick of several new programs and our China adjusted growth was negative 12% with three points of growth over market. Although China vehicle production was lower than our original expectations, we continue to see growth in key product lines, including active safety and high voltage. I'll provide an update on our production outlook for the year shortly. Turning to Slide 12, as Kevin indicated, first quarter EBITDA operating income and EPS were all above the midpoint of the guidance we provided back in January. EBITDA and operating income of $518 million and $345 million reflected the benefits of strong volume growth in North America and Europe, which were more than offset by volume declines and effects in commodity headwinds in China and U.S. China tariffs. Operating income margin adjusted for FX in commodities and tariffs was 10% percent reflecting lower production volumes while continuing to invest in future platform growth and advance safety and user experience, as Kevin referenced earlier. While favorable to guidance, tariffs were $6 million headwind year-over-year reflecting lower demand levels in the region and a 10% tariff rate for the full quarter. Earnings per share of $1.05 were $0.05 above the midpoint of our guidance, driven by higher operating income. Net below the line items were favorable year-over-year, largely driven by a lower effective tax rate of 11.3%. However, versus guidance, this benefit was offset by other items primarily higher interest expense associated with the debt refinancing we did in the quarter, which I'll cover in more detail shortly. Moving to the segments on the next slide, for the quarter, advance safety and user experience revenues grew 7% or 12 points over market, driven by new launch volumes and robust growth and active safety, more than offsetting the planned roll off of our lower end display audio product line and Info & User experience. Operating income before the impact of higher mobility investments benefited from strong active safety margin expansion despite higher planned engineering investments to support our strong backlog of new wins and pursuits. As a result, we now expect active safety revenues up 50% for the year with low teens operating margins. Our mobility investments for the quarter, totaled $47 million and we remain on track to target spend of $180 million. In summary, another strong quarter of revenue growth and operating leverage in the advanced safety and user experience segment. Turning the Signal & Power Solutions on Slide 14, revenues were up 3% or 7 points over market, driven by new program launches in North America, strong growth in our CV & Industrial end markets, and continued robust penetration of high voltage electrification. Operating income margin adjusted for the dilutive impact of FX commodities and tariffs was 11.3% down 200 basis points due to lower production volumes primarily in China. FX and commodity headwinds were largely driven by the weaker euro, and RMB, in addition a higher resin costs, as previously discussed. We expect FX and Commodity headwinds to continue for the remainder of the year, and have contemplated this in our revised outlook. Given the continued challenging macro landscape, slide 15 provides a refresh of our vehicle production assumptions, underpinning our updated revenue outlook for the year. We saw deteriorating trends escalating in Q1 with global vehicle production down 5% in the quarter. Meanwhile extended macro uncertainty, regulatory constraints and continued weak vehicle sales particularly in Europe and China have caused us to revise our vehicle production outlook lower for Q2 and the remainder of the year. At a global level, we now expect vehicle production to be down 5% in the second quarter consistent with Q1 and 3.5% for the full year. From a regional perspective, we now expect China production to decline 12% the second quarter and 9% for the year. And while we continue to experience strong growth over market in China, driven by double digit growth in our key product areas, we are preparing for structurally lower industry volumes going forward, and will continue to take additional actions to adjust our cost structure in the region as a result. Turning to Europe, we now expect vehicle production to decline 9% in the second quarter and 4% for the full year, driven by lower customer demand and certain program launch delays. Lastly, we see North American production largely unchanged, as OEMs launched new truck and SUV platforms to offset continued passenger car revenue declines. Despite the more challenging global market, we continue to expect our portfolio of safe, green and connected technologies and balanced regional customers -- customer and industrial market mix to more than offset the automotive macros, contributing to strong growth over market in every region. As a result, our adjusted revenue growth rate for the year remains unchanged at 6%. Turning to Slide 16, second quarter revenue is expected in the range of $3.6 billion to $3.7 billion up 5% at the midpoint or 9 points of growth over market. As I mentioned, that assumes global vehicle production down 5%. In addition, to $1.12 [ph] euro and a RMB690. Operating income and EPS are expected to be $385 million and $1.14 at the midpoint respectively, and includes estimated tariffs of $12 million in the quarter. Assuming the list three step up rate to 25% takes effect June 1st having been previously postponed. As a result, EPS is expected to be in the range of $1.11 to $1.17. Moving to the full year, revenues are now expected to be in the range of $14.425 billion to $14.825 billion up 6% at the midpoint. Adjusted EBITDA and operating income are expected to be $2.395 billion and $1.67 billion at the midpoint respectively. It's important to note our outlook includes over $130 million of FX, commodity and tariff headwinds for the full year. In aggregate, we believe these are mostly short term impacts that should improve in the back half of 2019 and 2020. And given the strength of our market position and bookings pipeline, we continue to make the investments in active safety and high voltage to support sustained, strong revenue and income growth. U.S. China tariffs are now estimated at $50 million for the year, down from our prior forecast of $60 million due to the delayed increase in the list three step up rate and lower China volumes. As a result, earnings per share are expected in the range of 490 to 510 and operating cash flow is now expected to be $1.65 billion reflecting higher restructuring cash for the year. No change to CapEx spend at $800 million. Turning to the next slide. We thought it would be helpful to provide more detail on the full year outlook guidance change, starting with the revenue walk on the left. You can see the first quarter outperformance is being more than offset by $170 million dollars of unfavorable FX and commodity translation with the euro now estimated at $1.12 for the year versus our prior outlook of $1.17. And our revised vehicle production outlook results in $150 million lower sales for the year. Moving to the operating income walk on the right, our updated operating income outlook similarly reflects our first quarter volume upside, the flow through of our updated FX and commodity assumptions, lower vehicle production volumes, partially offset by the benefit of incremental, structural cost actions Kevin mentioned earlier. The annualized impact of these actions are roughly $40 million and will further improve our flexible and scalable cost structure in 2020 and beyond. In summary, the strength of our revenue growth in the face of lower vehicle production underscores our portfolio positioning, while we continue to fund growth investments that are resulting in significant share gains. Turning to Slide 18. Our strong and flexible balance sheet allows us to execute our strategy for growth and create value for shareholders. In efforts to maintain our low net debt, conservative leverage profile and improve long term business flexibility, we refinanced $650 million of 2020 senior notes to 2029 and 2049, extending the weighted average tenor from 7 years to 12 years with a significant portion of 30 year debt. As a result, there are no significant note repayments due until 2024. This refinancing resulted in $11 million higher interest expense versus prior guidance which we will offset by our revised share repurchase outlook for the year, which now totals $450 million. At the same time, our M&A pipeline remain full. We remain focused on a accretive bolt-ons similar to [Indiscernible] Titan KUM and Winchester, which provide attractive end market diversification as well as strategic technology equity acquisitions, where we have the opportunity to accelerate the commercialization of new technologies. As a result, our consistent capital deployment strategy remains focused on investing in our business, both organically and inorganically and opportunistically returning cash, excess cash to shareholders. In summary, we believe effective capital deployment is a major differentiator for Aptiv and an important lever for shareholder value generation. With that, I'd now like to hand the call back to Kevin for his closing remarks.
Kevin Clark:
Thanks Joe. Let me wrap up on Slide 19 before opening it up for Q&A. Our first quarter performance was further evidence of Aptiv’s ability to drive sustained, above market growth. While our updated 2019 outlook contemplates a more challenging macro environment than we expected coming into the year. Our teams are focused on executing our strategy, and we believe it's critical that we balance continued investment in our promising future, with a relentless focus on increasing the flexibility of our cost structure, thereby creating more operating leverage when macro concerns abate. We believe our unique formula further differentiates Aptiv as a company capable of capitalizing on the key global auto 2.0 megatrends, driving increased vehicle content and market share gains, while also building more predictable and sustainable business with robust downtown resiliency, better positioned to perform in any macro environment. Lastly, we remain focused on delivering value to our shareholders, building upon our strong track record of operational execution and value enhancing capital deployment. With that, let's open up the line for Q&A. Operator?
Operator:
Certainly. [Operator Instructions] Joe Spak with RBC Capital Markets, your line is open.
Joe Spak:
Thanks. Thanks for taking the question. The first one is just on and on the on the chart in the Slide 17 I guess where you have the change in the guidance walk. The net incremental performance is that -- is that something that new that you sort of use some of your flexibility to sort of help offset some of the incremental volume pressures we've seen, so like the way to think about it is that minus 55 plus that 10 over the change in 150 which would sort of be like that 30% detrimental margin, or is that just sort of stuff that sort of already in the system that you just has been coming in better?
Kevin Clark:
No, it's incremental Joe. The first way to think about it the right way.
Joe Spak:
Okay.
Kevin Clark:
So as we're looking. So as we're looking at these production volumes coming down and again assuming lower level of production going forward in some of these markets, we are we are taking another look at the cost structure and working that through so that that would be incremental to what we've talked about in the past.
Joe Spak:
Okay. And then, maybe just on the way, I noticed you provided the slides in sort of organic growth I just -- this is a little bit of housekeeping, but how are you getting to 7% in U.S. U.S. segment because if you look at the change I'm just trying to. Sorry quickly find a slide on, you only show like a $29 million positive on the $1.32 billion.
Elena Rosman:
So within -- there is some divestiture revenue related to the wind down of some contract manufacturing in that business, Joe.
Joe Spak:
Okay, so that’s the difference, okay.
Kevin Clark:
Yes. You have it -- you've got that that's where I refer the M&A is net. So you’ve got the ads from Winchester and KUM and the contract manufacturing coming down from prior divestitures.
Joe Spak:
Okay. Thanks.
Operator:
Brian Johnson with Barclays. Your line is open.
Brian Johnson:
Thank you. A couple of questions. So we we've sort of been in the past the impact of copper, which is mostly my understanding past or the lag over in SPS. Now we're seeing resin, so can you talk about whether these are contractual pricing mechanisms. I assume ,this is on the connector side although maybe it seems -- the wiring. What is it? What if, what are your contractual provisions around that? And then what gives you some confidence in recovery of those or whether we would cover some of those?
Kevin Clark:
Brian, it's Kevin. I'll start. So it is resonant as you're right, it's resonant principally related to the connector or engineered components business, and it relates tightness in the supply chain from an available capacity standpoint. It's actually some of the additives that go into into some of some of the resins like PA 66 [ph] and others that are out that are out there. We started to see a significant increase late last year for a relatively large increase into our business plan for 2019 as we exited 2018 and saw incremental tightening of supply and incremental pricing. And given growth on some of our product lines, the reality is we need to buy some of that product out on spot on the spots market, relative to our contractual provisions. And those have been at least to date at much higher rates. We're working to push those through to customers. We've had some success but in light of some of the softer volume, it's been a bit more challenging to do, something that we'll continue to work through. While we are doing that, we're also in the process of validating other resin alternatives to replace existing. For example like PA66 to replace that that sort of resin with alternative products that are automotive grade and are validated by our customers.
Brian Johnson:
Okay, so this is more driven by developments in the chemical industry than the impact that drives the [Indiscernible].
Kevin Clark:
Yes, it’s more driven by quite frankly a limited supply on one of the components or additives into products like PA66 where we've actually seen some facilities, temporary facility shut downs. Significant price increases as a result of the shortage of supply and again demand for select products where we need to go out on the spot market and actually buy the resin. And as I said, we forecasted what we had in our plan a significant increase on a year-over-year basis, but we've actually seen much higher, much higher prices than what we what we originally anticipated.
Joseph Massaro:
And Brian, just to get [Indiscernible] so this would be, this was the cross ECG [ph] and so this is -- there's some of this in Heller and tightness as well. We've typically through the industrial channel, we're able to push price easier than the automotive channel. It just takes a little bit of time and I would say move -- moves in his resins historically have been oversize where we've been able to sort of manage them in the sort of in the daily flow of sort of back and forth. This is a particularly high spike that we see lasting through the balance of the year. It's going to take a little more time to work through.
Brian Johnson:
Okay, follow up slightly different topic. So, I just – your bookings were actually down year-over-year you’re on track. So are there big things that just in terms of timing that are – 2Q with 3Q?
Kevin Clark:
Yes listen, Brian I -- as we said bookings are lumpy, so I wouldn't read into quarter-to-quarter, year-over-year kind of quarter-to-quarter comparison. So when we look at the funnel of opportunities especially in areas like -- vehicle electrification our high voltage the funnel is actually larger this year than it was last year at this point in time. So we have a high level of confidence that bookings for the year will be over $23 billion. So and on the active safety side over $4 billion. So I wouldn't read into a single quarter.
Brian Johnson:
Okay, thanks. See you at the Investor Day.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of David Tamberrino with Goldman Sachs. Your line is open.
David Tamberrino:
Yes, hi, good morning. A couple of questions. The first one, can we dig into the Signal & Power Solutions business. I mean, I think you probably went through in your prepared remarks unfortunately it wasn't on for that, but I think the detrimental for that business was like 120%. I'd really love to just understand the puts and takes there. If that should be continuing throughout the year and that's my first question?
Joseph Massaro:
Yes, David, I think the way -- the way to think about that you know when we talk about the FX Commodity impact, those and the majority of tariffs those all hit and SPS. Right. So it’s 90 plus percent of the numbers, those numbers that we talk about from at an app to what will actually hit that segment. So that's the majority of what you're seeing there from a flow through perspective. I think the other thing that's impacting that, again at a slow level and it's you know we've known it, and it's one of the reasons you know we're sort of in the Q1 guide. At the OI level, you've got the legacy business down 12% in China for example. You've got new business from KUM and Winchester coming in, but obviously at a lower -- rate given the deal amortization. So you've got a little bit of that, that going on. We’re in a typical -- you know a typical situation you wouldn't have China coming down so much, so you wouldn't necessarily see that that negative flow and we'd expect to start to lap that in the back half of the year. But the primary reason, when you think about SPS is the FX, the Commodity, the tariff hit that segment.
David Tamberrino:
Okay, then sort of excluding all that, I mean what target detrimental’s would you think that business would achieve?
Joseph Massaro:
That business, yes, that business should be, I mean, we talked about detrimentals 25% to 30% of that business would be closer to the lower end of that range.
David Tamberrino:
Okay. And then for my second question, a lot of new headwinds that you're calling out for the remainder of the year. What opportunities you have to mitigate some of them, are you going to be able to pass through some of those price increases and what type of lag time could we be looking at?
Kevin Clark:
Yes. David, I’ll start. Listen, I mean the first action Joe answered the first question with respect to kind of cost structure activity. So, as a result of the slowdown there, we fall forward a number of initiatives that relates to footprint consolidation into this year that we’re planning for next year, as well as have taken incremental actions in light of the significant slowdown in China. So, when you look at China for outlook for the year and back half of last year, the reality is we're forecasting six straight quarters of vehicle production decline. And, in light of that, it's important that we continue to reduce our cost structure. We'll implement the initiative in the fourth quarter of last year from a footprint and headcount standpoint. We're going to take further action in that region. They said we're going to pull forward some of the plans that we had in the rest of the globe as a result of the lower vehicle production. As it relates to things like resin and FX, resin were pushing real hard from a customer standpoint, from a pricing standpoint. As Joe said, we can't flip the switch overnight, but I think we feel comfortable. Those are things that over the balance of the year, we should be able to abate. So as we head into 2020, we're in a net neutral position that will be a mix of price increases as well as is replacement product for things like PA66. So that's something that we think we can meter in for the balance of the year. And then, there is several areas that we're looking at from an overhead and corporate standpoint through the streamlining and tightening our belts. The one area that we've spent a lot of time looking at and thinking about is the advanced engineering and the pursuit engineering areas. We at this point of time feel strongly that that's not an area we should touch. We've had tremendous success as relates to smart vehicle architecture. We now have won our second advance engineering program, a significant success in our [Indiscernible] or active safety business. And there are several other areas that we feel like we're getting a lot of traction. We're gaining tremendous market share. Joe talked about the margin growth on a year-over-year basis in some of these areas. In our view, is we should just continue to invest so that we can be dominant in those particular areas and widen the competitive moat. But, that's an area that if we continue to see significant softening that's an area that we continually evaluate.
David Tamberrino:
Okay. And that's not -- none of that contemplated within the guide, correct?
Kevin Clark:
No, none of that's contemplated in the guidance.
David Tamberrino:
Right. Thank you very much.
Operator:
Chris McNally with Evercore. Your line is open.
Christopher McNally:
Thanks so much. Maybe we'd start on the production guide for Europe. Looking at your Q2 in the second half of you’re definitely more conservative than the forecasters, which I think many people are saying the hockey stick and second half looks a little bit too aggressive. But I wanted to just hone in on -- are you getting any early indications around RDE [ph] and is there some bit of conservatism baked in for the changeover that that happened at the end of Q3.
Joseph Massaro:
Yes, Chris, I would say over the course of March we saw European customer schedules come down significantly in Q2. Right. So we've got Europe down 9% in Q2. So there's a bit of when you talk through it with customers this Brexit uncertainty still out there. I think that has been kicked [ph] through October. You have RDE [ph] there may be a little bit of China contingent as well as some of the higher end models which in our European business we are on the bigger, the bigger platforms that are in some cases exported out. So I would say it's that combination of things as you look, the other you know and Kevin mentioned in his comments. The one thing we've tried to do is be very prudent on just how big that back half ramp gets. And when you looked at – when you look at China down 15 points now 11 in Q1 down again in Q2, a little bit more than we were forecast that half a point to a point. And now with Europe, we just wanted to make sure we were thinking probably about the business, planning accordingly, taken the actions and not just assuming this big snapback. And that's really what you've seen us work through Q2 in the back half of the year.
Kevin Clark:
Yes Chris, I would say the second quarter was the first time we've seen actually shifting out of program launches, vehicle program launches. And that penetration of our -- of our product, but actually delay and vehicle launches from always in the year, which isn’t good. And then to Joe's point, it's from a credibility standpoint, it's tough to sit and say, China is down double digits the first half of the year and it’s going to rebound and have growth, significant growth in the back half of the year. And from our perspective, we think it's prudent to assume there is some back half improvement, but it's much more muted.
Christopher McNally:
Okay. That that makes sense. And then the second on the FX and commodity, I think the 60 million drain on 170 million sales, should we think about as you talk about the resin, I just run you know if I think about like a detrimental margin. The resin 40 million hit is just straight to the bottom line. And then the other the other 20 should be the FX translating at slightly above company average margins.
Joseph Massaro:
Yes, that is correct.
Christopher McNally:
Okay, great. Thanks so much guys.
Joseph Massaro:
Thanks, Chris.
Operator:
Dan Galves with Wolfe Research. Your line is open.
Dan Galves:
Hey guys. Good morning everybody. Good morning. I just had a couple of questions. Just to clarify when you say, you'll be back at kind of a neutral position on resins. You know what do you mean by that? It’s I guess, I'm just trying to see if there's an opportunity to kind of reduce some of this 40 million headwind over the course of the year, or is that something that you're looking to get back to neutral heading into 2020 at which point you'd have a kind of a positive year-over-year?
Joseph Massaro:
Yes. Listen, our objective would be to get it back. Our objective would be to get it back to neutral as soon as we can. I think, there's a reality in terms of validating new materials with our OE customers that needs to be taken into consideration from a timing standpoint. Increase price. That's something that obviously needs to be negotiated and pushed through. That's a little bit tougher in a weaker environment quite frankly than it is in a harder environment. But we think between the two, we'll be -- we'll be able to offset it. Dan, we'll work real hard to pull that forward, and get it done as quickly as we can. But probably, the prudent thing is to assume it's not a net neutral or we're not at that point till year end. And then for next year, it means it's not a headwind. You don't have the same headwind from the – from a year-over-year standpoint.
Dan Galves:
Got it. Okay. Thanks a lot. The other question is you know somewhat kind of dovetailing to what you said about a tougher environment to get relief from the customers. The program launches that you're talking about in Europe. Do you think that that's related to emissions programs, the regulations that are coming in next year? Fine. It seems like there's a lot of uncertainty there and kind of what are you hearing in terms of desire of OEMs to try to offset some of the kind of regulatory costs they're facing in Europe through kind of broad actions into the supply chain?
Kevin Clark:
Yes. Listen, I think that the environment was the supply chain, again and not to give you the same answer all the time. It continues to be challenging just as it always has been. As it always has been, so I wouldn’t say that there is necessarily incremental pricing pressure. I think it continues as it historically has. I think with respect to shifting vehicle production, it's tough for us to get precise visibility to what drives that. I'm sure some of that's regulatory, some of that's cost some of that's funding investment. This particular product line is one that that the OE will certainly introduce. So it's not a cancellation, it's just a shifting or delay that has a revenue impact on us. But I think it's a bit of all of the above. Right. The regulatory environment cost as well as capital you know capital constraints.
Joseph Massaro:
Yes, Dan, just to follow up, we're still at 2% price for the year. So we're not know -- we're again to Kevin's point we're sort of always working through that with customers but haven't seen any significant, haven’t had any significant changes on our expectations on price for the year.
Dan Galves:
That's really helpful. Thanks a lot Joe and Kevin.
Kevin Clark:
Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Emmanuel Rosner with Deutsche Bank. Your line is open.
Emmanuel Rosner:
Good morning, everybody.
Kevin Clark:
Hi, Emmanuel.
Emmanuel Rosner:
So I was hoping to zoom in on the the volume piece of the headwind. So of course I believe, I understand some of the things you said on FX and commodities. But, whether I look at the first quarter specifically or the updated sort of like full year guidance it just feels like the volume impact is just sort to reflect dramatically more negative than you know then generally it may be expected. So I'm looking for example, it's your year-over-year walk within you know Signal & Power solution on Slide 23. You have sort of like a positive volume on the revenue side some 71 million but like deeply negative impact from operating income in of negative 59, and that excludes obviously FX and commodities that on the following line. And then on a full year basis, obviously in your -- in your slide 17 obviously the extra volume hit seems to be carrying a 30% plus 35% up of detrimental margin on there. So, can you just a long question I apologize, but can you just zero in on the volume piece of the headwinds and what is it that makes it so deeply negative? I guess, in the quarter and then on the -- on the outlook?
Kevin Clark:
Yes, Emanuel you're right. It's a good question and it applies to both Q1 and Q2. Obviously, we knew in effect that we had in the guide. I think we touched on it during year end is related to the Q1 guide. You know, we do have when production comes down that quickly, whether it was China in Q1 we're seeing some of it in Europe Q2. You know that we will have, we will have negative flow from a detrimental perspective. And I would say in each quarter, I'd call sort of the negative flow about $50 million that we're working through again for Q1, we had expected it. Q2 it’s going to be a little bit more than we originally expected just given the recent takedown in Europe. The cost actions will come in to help offset that, but particularly in Europe, those take a little bit of time before they hit. So you've got that. And then, I think you've got the added of and I mentioned that earlier, you know when the acquisitions come in they come in at a lower -- rate because of the deal amortization side. So I wouldn't call it mix. I'm not implying that, but you just the revenue that's in there is flowing a little bit lower in the first four, six quarters after an acquisition because we're working up synergies, but have the purchase accounting in there sort of out of the blocks. So that's really what you're seeing and we've quantified it at about 50 million and in each of the two quarters. More China related in Q1, more Europe related in Q2. But again, within our original guide certainly for Q1.
Emmanuel Rosner:
Okay, that’s helpful. And so, the second part of that question the -- for the guidance walk when you have sort of like a 150 million extra headwind on the volume side, and 55 million operating income that that's sort of a much more normalized type of detrimental margin.
Joseph Massaro:
Yes. And so what we get. What we're seeing in the back half of the year is that flow starts to normalize right. We've got, we've got sort of for H2, the back half of the year. Flow returns though to more. You know we should be falling somewhere between 25% to 30% on an average quarter, some quarter is a little different. But that starts to return. So we start to make, we start to make up on that.
Emmanuel Rosner:
Great. And then I wanted to follow up on my question from last quarter around the longer term margin outlook. So essentially, you've had a framework of a consistent margin expansion and I think you know we fully understand the sort of environment that we're in and a lot of the headwinds some of them expected some of them that have surfaced more recently. When you sort of like look beyond that. Are you still comfortable with the idea that this you should be able to consistently keep growing margins or has the environment fundamentally become more challenging?
Joseph Massaro:
There’s certainly more challenging. What are some of these transactional items, the FX or the tariffs, but I’d answer in sort of two parts, and then coming from certainly [Indiscernible]. When we talked about margin expansion, there were certain underlying things that had to happen in the business for us to get comfortable that we could continue to expand margins. Good examples active safety that business would continue to grow as it grew, it would expand margins. That we're certainly seeing. Right, active safety is going to be over, well over a $1 billion this year with low teens operating margins. And back you know in September 2017 when we provided sort of our thoughts on margin expansion that business had just was just about to break even. So things like that, high voltage is another very similar example of that. So, so the core underlying things that needed to happen in the product lines and how we run the business have happened. We are certainly dealing with sort of some of the FX and tariffs. We don't give up on those. They're hard to deal with in a particular quarter over a particular couple of quarters depending on how significant the move is. But you know we’ll continue to remain focused on that cost structure to work to offset those. But I'd say that the underlying product line growth the underlying business developments that needed to happen for us to be able to say we're going to grow margins is certainly taking place. Kevin I don't know.
Kevin Clark:
Yes. Listen, I mean, I just hear the framework is intact and remains. I think the challenge we're dealing with right now is a decline in vehicle production significant decline of production in China right. And a protracted decline in China. The impact of FX rates and then in this particular case, the resin challenge that we have on a year-over-year basis, that you know we'll find substitutes will push the price and in reality there's somewhat it fixes itself as more is more capacity comes online during 2020. So I think there's to Joe's point, there's some one-off items that can affect that model. But from our long term standpoint, the model remains intact.
Emmanuel Rosner:
Great. Thank you.
Kevin Clark:
Thanks, Emmanuel
Operator:
John Murphy with Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Your line is open.
Unidentified Analyst:
Good morning, this is [Indiscernible] for John. First question, and the -- good morning. The cost saving actions that you're perceiving. I believe you said its $50 million in 2018 and $40 million in 2019. Is there more room to go and rationalize costs if the broader macro environment remains tight and we don't get this inflection in the back half of the year?
Joseph Massaro:
Yes. Listen, the 50 was last year, the 40s run rate just to be clear, the 40s run rate for 2019, $10 million of which will show up just given timing a portion of which relates to regions where you can't as quickly get people out. Yes, I mean, we have a cost structure and we have the ability to adjust that cost structure in response -- in response to one, how we manage the business, but to especially in times when you have a slowdown in vehicle production some of that naturally happens like direct labor when you take people out of the factory indirect labor things like things like that. There are other areas like corporate overhead that we've been working on, on a regular basis over the last several years and will continue to continue to work on. And then that last area is the engineering area and as we talked about earlier, that's an area that spending is up significantly on a year-over-year basis. I think we're up roughly $100 million between mobility spend and engineering spend in our ASU acts, principally our ASUEX and our SPS [ph] business. But we've gained tremendous traction from a market share and customer acceptance standpoint. So we've been reticent you know given the number of programs we've won, given how we're positioned to go after that in and out of any ordinary course way. Obviously, we're always focused on how do we make the engineering factory more efficient, more productive. But incremental reductions, restructurings those are things that we've shied away from. To the extent you had a protracted slowdown or you didn't see the snap back that's something that we'd have to evaluate in light of our customer commitments.
Unidentified Analyst:
Great. That's very helpful. And looking at Slide 15 for a second and focusing in on China, in terms of the adjusted growth expectations it looks like you're expecting some more pronounced adjusted growth versus market in 2Q relative to H2. Is this just a function of product launches that are more weighted to the second quarter, or could this be just some conservative in the back half?
Joseph Massaro:
No there's a lot of launch activities. Our China launches are up almost 70% year-over-year in the second half of the year. And launch in across all over a broad swath of our customer base. So there's just a lot of new products coming to market and in the back half of the year.
Unidentified Analyst:
Okay. And then….
Kevin Clark:
One item -- if I can just one item implying to your question. And I think Joe answered the question really well. I think as we look at our outlook for vehicle production in the back half of the year, we don't view it as overly conservative. And industries tend to run in trends, and seeing more rapid snap backs, and things like vehicle production that that's not something, although mathematically when you look at things, year-over-year from a growth rate standpoint. So for example, the decline vehicle production in China in Q3, 2018 and Q4, 2018 relative to the first half of the year you can mathematically arrive there. We think from an operational standpoint, it's tougher in reality for our customer base to do that.
Unidentified Analyst:
Okay. And one last housekeeping question if I may. The slight decline in your operating cash flow outlook relative to the one you provided earlier this year. Is that purely just a function of higher restructuring costs as you know on slide 16, or is it a combination of that with a slightly lower profit outlook?
Joseph Massaro:
No, I mean, cash will perform well on cash. We did take 50 million out of the outlook just as you know we've got these additional cost saving actions. So we're going to have to pay for those. So we wanted to -- we wanted to have a balanced perspective there, but now cash, cash working capital where we're performing in line with expectations.
Unidentified Analyst:
Great. That's it for me. Thank you very much.
Joseph Massaro:
Thank you.
Operator:
[Indiscernible] with Macquarie. Your line is open.
Unidentified Analyst:
Hi. Thanks. You spoke last quarter of moving production out of China and into Korea. Are you still sticking with those plans? I guess where are you within that process with customer validation and then what's embedded into your guidance? Then I have a follow up.
Joseph Massaro:
Yes. I know the moves still there. As we said, we were assuming tariffs. We're going to operate as if tariffs don't go away. We had an advantage in that the acquisition KUM had a similar product line on these media modules to what we needed to move out of China. So that process has begun. The production line stood up in Korea. We're in the process of but we're still manufacturing out of China but we're in the process of ramping in manufacturing samples for customer validation and customers starts to go into the plants to validate and approve the lines. When end of May, June so we'll know we'll be tracking as originally expected and that's what's -- that's what's in the guidance.
Unidentified Analyst:
Okay. Thanks. And then there's been a lot of news in the market around autonomous and robo taxis and given that you have a commercially deployed autonomous vehicles. Can you maybe just talk about your expectations for when full autonomous service is feasible and addressing that question I guess from two perspectives, one from a technology perspective. When will technology be ready versus a regulatory perspective? Thanks.
Kevin Clark:
Yes. Listen I -- know we've publicly stated in the past, we expect to have a driver out of the car first late, the first half 2020. And actually vehicles out from a commercial standpoint in 2022 with 2025 revenues of $500 million tied to automated driving for mobility services. So, our view of the technology, the maturity, the technology and the roll out of the technology quite frankly has not changed. We think it's something that there'll be great demand for the most significant applications. Early on, we'll be with mobility players or fleet owners and then later in 2020 as you know probably around 2030 you're going to see stepped up consumer demand just given the maturity of the technology and getting the technology to a commercial rate or commercial costs that consumers are willing to pay for it. So, our outlook quite frankly has not changed. I guess the one area where maybe it's changed a bit is with respect to level two plus, level three systems where we're now in the last 12 months seeing significant demand from several OE customers with respect to that technology. We won roughly seven programs last year in that area. So advanced ADAS is growing much faster than what we would have anticipated over a year ago and the AD market is right where we thought it would be.
Unidentified Analyst:
Great. Thank you.
Operator:
David Leiker with Baird. Your line is open.
Joe Vruwink:
Good morning and this is Joe Vruwink for David. Good morning. There's been a lot of discussion this earnings season by other suppliers about how the heavy launch cadence across the industry front loaded engineering requirements for new launches is diluting profitability. You've talked a lot about your profitability, but it doesn't sound like it's at all related to your backlog or out growth. Is that fair? Are the new programs you're launching in line with your expectation in terms of their levels of return?
Kevin Clark:
Yes. There's significant investment related to launching those new programs. But it's in line with what our expectations were quite frankly when we bid on the programs when we won the programs and what we have had in our forecast and outlook, so, no change at all from our standpoint.
Joseph Massaro:
Yes. I'd say the one thing that we certainly focus on ensuring the business does and this is to Kevin's comments about expanding mode or growing share. You know the more you do of these the better you get. And you've got resources capabilities in the organization and you can start to leverage as well. So again I think as we continue to do these we're starting to see that. I mentioned earlier that active safety OI margin for the year is going to be in the mid-teens that's burdened with its engineering expense. That you know we run the P&Ls sort of every top on its own bottom. So that's in those numbers.
Joe Vruwink:
Okay, great. And then a follow-up. I think the end market forecast and the view into the second half are prudent. At the same time some of your technology partners at Tier 2 level, so electronics or semis have actually started talking about sequential order improvement for their business. So it seems like the trends maybe they're seeing, are the requests they're getting are perhaps a bit better than the views you're outlining? Do you think that both can coexist or are you maybe just a little more prudent and how you're planning on a go forward basis?
Joseph Massaro:
I think -- though that -- I understand the question on triangulation. So, if I had the answer that I'd say what they're seeing is our out growth, right. They're seeing increases in the content, particularly if you're on some of the higher end semi guys the GPU folks you know that's what we're seeing. I mean our active safety business is growing 50% this year. So there's -- that is how I would think it's triangulated. I haven't done that. I haven't walked it all through, but just off the top of my head and that's how I would think you should triangulate those logically.
Joe Vruwink:
Okay, great. Thank you.
Operator:
David Kelly with Jefferies. Your line is open.
David Kelly:
Good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. And a quick follow up on the active safety discussion. Competitor reference some active safety headwinds tied to unfavorable mix I believe within the premium market. Are you seeing anything in any subset of the market that would suggest any active safety headwinds are either taking place now or might be on the horizon whether it would be delayed product adoption or customer discontenting?
Kevin Clark:
No. Listen, our active safety business is going to grow north of 50% this year and in fact we'd say we've seen an accelerated demand from our customer base. And I think for us when you look at the absolute numbers at some point you'll see slowing growth rate but it will be law of large numbers versus good customer demand or market penetration. I think it's important when you put in perspective globally, active safety I believe it’s roughly 15% penetrated globally and it's a technology that, one helps OE sell cars, two, they make a lot of money selling it, and three, once consumers have been in a car with an active safety solution the likelihood of them purchasing a car or replacing a car without it are slim and none. So we see tremendous growth opportunities going forward and have not seen any delay cancellation and that’s actually in the contrary.
David Kelly:
Okay, great. Thanks. And just quickly switching to Slide nine here at the commercial vehicle and industrial growth. I guess, could you discuss the impact of Winchester on the quarterly growth rate? And similarly how does should we think about organic full year growth and maybe high level where you're gaining traction in the commercial and industrial markets?
Elena Rosman:
Hey, David this is Elena. The organic CV and industrial market growth in Signal and Power Solutions is mid-teens. That's consistent for our outlook for the remainder of the year.
Joseph Massaro:
So that's sort of the organic and adjusted, you know we're seeing end markets we're seeing growth, CV is off to a really good start this year for us. We expect that to continue looking at about 18% adjusted CV growth for the year that's in both the ASUEX business where things like the infotainment user experience, active safety start to take hold. And then SPS also has a -- as has been increasing their product offering in the CV space. So we view that as a potential. That's a good sort of growth over market story for us too. We have that market grow into sort of 2% to 3% for the year or so. Strong out growth. As it relates to Winchester Mil-Aero continue to be strong. Other industrials are in line with our expectations. So continue to see sort of that play out according to plan as we work through diversification. I think our non-auto revenue this year will be close to 13%. If you go back a couple of years it was mid-single digits. So we have -- we are moving the needle from a from a revenue diversification which again is as you probably aware is part of plan as we think through cycle performance and how to make the business more resilient through certainly through the auto cycle and getting some revenue diversity.
David Kelly:
Great. Thank you.
Operator:
Colin Rusch from Oppenheimer. Your line is open.
Colin Rusch:
Thanks so much for getting us in. Could you talk a little bit about the mix in China in terms of new startups and existing OEMs as you look at this year look to really understand how much you're helping those folks get their business up and going?
Joseph Massaro:
Yes. The bulk -- roughly 75% of our revenues are with the multinational JVs and then 25% with what you would consider to be the locals, when you look at that 25% that's with the locals literally 80% or 90% of it is with the top 10 or the largest OEs that are in China. So I would say we have very little very little if any business with the China start-up space at this point in time.
Colin Rusch:
Okay. That's super helpful. And then just turning to ADAS and the hardware evolution, obviously one of the advantages of your system is your ability to integrate some of these newer hardware pieces, but we're seeing significant investments in terms of the sensing technology. As you look forward and in some of your projections you've obviously made some commitments around LiDAR, but and there's a big debate with some of your -- some other systems out there in terms of whether a camera based system will ultimately prevail here. But as you look forward and look at future proofing the system what are you looking at in terms of really meaningful evolution in terms of that sensing technology over the next couple of years that's reaching critical points in development and what you would be looking for in terms of how you think about this system evolving over the next two or three years?
Joseph Massaro:
Yes. Well, I think it's probably two, three years probably a little bit longer than that. But the reality is our view is now and has historically been that you need modalities to have you know -- we're going to have a tremendous amount of consolidation of compute power and quite frankly software and capability in the compute platform, so a fair amount will come out of the perception system that will be centralized. It will -- it will result in a much more powerful, much more effective, much more efficient and much lower cost solution for the OE. It's one of the models we've used quite frankly.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, currently we're experiencing some technical issues. Please stand by. This concludes the Aptiv First Quarter 2019 Earnings Conference Call. We thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Good morning. My name is Amy, and I will be your conference facilitator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Aptiv Q4 2018 Earnings Conference Call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speakers’ remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] I would now like to turn the call over to Elena Rosman, Vice President of Investor Relations. Elena, you may begin your conference.
Elena Rosman:
Thank you, Amy. Good morning and thank you to everyone for joining Aptiv’s fourth quarter 2018 earnings conference call. To follow along with today’s presentation, our slides can be found at ir.aptiv.com, and consistent with prior calls, today’s review of our actual and forecasted financials exclude restructuring and other special items and will address the continuing operations of Aptiv. The reconciliation between GAAP and non-GAAP measures for both our fourth quarter financials, as well as our outlook for the first quarter and full year are included at the back of today’s presentation and in the earnings press release. Now turning to slide 2 for a disclosure on forward-looking statements, which reflects Aptiv’s current view of future financial performance, which may be materially be different from our actual performance for reasons that we cite in our Form 10-K and other SEC filings. Joining us today will be Kevin Clark, Aptiv’s President and CEO; and Joe Massaro, CFO and Senior Vice President. Kevin will provide a strategic update on the business and then Joe will cover the financial results on our outlook for 2019 in more detail. With that, I would like to turn the call over to Kevin Clark.
Kevin Clark:
Thanks Elena and good morning everyone. I'm going to begin by providing an overview of the fourth quarter and full year, highlight several of our key 2018 milestones and provide some perspective on how we’re thinking about end markets for 2019. Joe will then take you through our 2018 financial results as well as our more detailed outlook for 2019. I’m pleased to report a strong finish to 2018, a testament backed visibility to drive sustained out performance even in a challenging end market. Revenue, operating profit and earnings per share all finished above the guidance we provided in October. For the full year, revenue of 14.4 billion represents 10 points of growth over market, reinforcing the strength of our portfolio of advanced technologies aligned to the safe, green and connected mega trends. The strength of our technology portfolio also resulted in record new business awards totaling $22 billion for the full year exceeding our prior year record of 19.3 billion. Our 2018 financial performance also validates the robustness of our business model that can deliver in any environment that’s positioned for solid, true cycle performance. As we kick off the New Year, we remain laser focused on delivering value to our shareholders. Given the current macro and geopolitical environment, we believe it’s prudent to be balanced in our 2019 planning assumptions, which we’ll cover in more detail shortly. However, we are confident that the long term fundamentals of our business remain intact and I’ve never been more confident and excited about our future, as Aptiv is perfectly positioned to capitalize on the trends driving Auto 2.0 and deliver sustainable revenue and earnings growth, while continuing to invest in our future. Turning to slide 4, building a strong sustainable business that makes the world more safe, green and connected is the focus of our management team. We made significant progress executing on a number of strategic fronts in 2018. First, we had very strong revenue growth over market and a record customer new business awards, giving us confidence in our revenue growth outlook, and reinforcing that we have the right software, computing systems integration capabilities, required to help our customers adapt higher levels advanced safety, electrification and connectivity. Second, our record cash flow generation and disciplined capital deployment reinforced our strategy for a long term shareholder value creation. We funded both organic and inorganic growth initiatives including additional capacity to support our strong backlog of Active Safety Business awards, investments to fund the further development of our automated driving capabilities, smart vehicle architecture and connected services, and the acquisition of KUM and Winchester Interconnect further establishing Aptiv as a market leader in engineered components. In addition we repurchased $0.5 billion of stock over half of which was in the fourth quarter, taking advantage of market disconnects over the course of the year. So in total, we returned over 700 million to shareholders through share repurchases and dividends. Moving to the far right of the slide, as always we remain maniacal about our cost structure constantly working to improve the competitiveness of our business model and lower our breakeven to increase the flexibility of our cost structure and be in a position to fund the incremental growth investments, while delivering earnings and cash flow growth. While we’ve been in this journey for some time, our focus on continuous improvement means we’re never finished. Our DNA is wired to naturally focus on delivering material and manufacturing efficiency, and also reduce overhead costs. 50 million of overhead and stranded cost-related to the Powertrain spinoff were actually eliminated during 2018. Further, our engineering resources are critical to executing in our pipeline of new business awards. Our continued focus on maximizing engineering efficiency and effectiveness with [added] methodologies, reusable software platforms and other tools allows us to expand our capabilities in software, artificial intelligence, machine learning and systems engineering, faster than we’ve grown on engineering spend. In summary, our continuous improvement mindset is helping us improve operational efficiency, while allowing us to meaningfully invest in our future. Turning to slide 5, you could see fourth quarter new business bookings total 6.5 billion, bringing the 2018 total of 22 billion well above 2017 record of just over 19 billion. As I mentioned, these bookings are the direct result of our widening competitive mode and several advanced technologies across both advanced safety user experience and signal and power solutions. Beginning with active safety, where we won 3.9 billion of new customer awards topping last year’s record of 3.7 billion. These awards include multiple scalable level 2 plus programs, leveraging our unique [satellite] architecture, active safety domain controller and perception systems. Infotainment and user experience customer awards totaled 2.8 billion, driven in part by integrated tactic controller solutions, reinforcing our leadership position in central compute. In engineered components booked 6.5 billion of new customer awards, including 1 billion in high voltage connectors, bringing 2018 high voltage electrification awards to $2 billion double the amount from the prior year. Our continued momentum in new business bookings validates our ability to leverage the unique brain and nervous system or the software and hardware foundation that we’ve created and that enables new features and functions, while optimizing the total system cost of the vehicle. Turning to segment highlights and advance safety user experience on slide 6, sales for the fourth quarter were up 12% that’s 14 points over market. Continued strong consumer demand for active safety and infotainment solutions drove revenue growth of 54% and 8% respectively. As the need for more complex software development and systems integration expertise increases, our unique ability to offer highly functional optimized solutions has driven several of our 2018 new business awards including six new central compute awards in 2018 across multiple domains including active safety, infotainment as well as body, chassis and propulsion, bringing our collective total customer awards to 11. The most recent example shown here is our Conquest win with PSA for scalable active safety, leveraging our satellite architecture solution which is being deployed across a multiple vehicle maker models and represents our 7th such award in active safety. Finally, operating margins expanded 170 basis points for the year, excluding the impact of mobility investments, demonstrating the benefits of our competitive positioning and our cost structure. Turning to slide 7, our signal and power solution segment is focused on next generation vehicle architectures including high speed data and high power electrical distribution to enable advance technologies that will shape the future of mobility. For the quarter, sales increased 6% that’s nine points over market despite the weakening macros, driven by over 50% sales growth for high voltage electrification products and very solid double digit growth for engineered components. Under scoring our industry leading position in vehicle architecture, we were recently awarded the high voltage electrical architecture on the Jeep Grand Cherokee. This high value, high volume award validates the increasing need for optimized high voltage architecture across a full range of vehicle types. In 2018, high voltage electrification revenues approached 300 million, that’s up over 60% year-over-year, making it one of our fastest growing and most profitable product lines. Based on the value of our new business bookings, this product line should reach over 1 billion of revenues in 2022, representing a 40% compounded growth rate over that period. In summary, given the breadths and depths of our portfolio in both segments, we are perfectly positioned to benefit from the convergence of auto 2.0 trends, and we’re confident in our ability to continue to grow revenues in excess for the underlying markets. Given the more challenging macro landscape heading in to 2019, on slide 8 I’d like to provide some context for the key assumptions that underpin our vehicle production outlook for the year. As we look ahead to 2019, we expect to see continued softening of vehicle production around the world. At a global level, we expect vehicle production to be down 2.5% for the full year and down 4% in the first half. From a regional perspective, I’ll start with China as I know it’s top of mind for many of you. We expect vehicle production to decline 11% in the first quarter and 8% for the full year. And while we will continue to experience strong revenue growth over market in this region, driven by double digit growth in our key product areas including active safety, infotainment and high voltage electrification, we’re preparing for structurally lower industry volumes going forward. As a result, we’re being prudent from a cost structure perspective. We reduced salary cost in this region by almost 10%. Turning to the other regions, we expect low single digit production declines in North America and Europe. However, similar to China, we also expect revenues to grow in excess of vehicle production, given our new launch cadence and market share gains. Finally as Joe will outline in more detail shortly, we expect our portfolio of safe, green and connected technologies and balanced regional customer and platform mix to more than offset the industry macros contributing to strong growth over market once again in 2019. Before I turn it over to Joe to go through the numbers, I’d just like to highlight another great year at CES. As we’ve done in the past, we’ve provided automated rides on the streets of Las Vegas accumulating nearly 10,000 of our talented smiles during the week of CES alone. While a number of our customers, our investors and our partners took advantage of our vehicles transport from the destination in and around the strip, downtown or to and from the airport, we also supported our normal operations for the general public. And since its launch earlier last year, we’ve conducted over 30,000 rides on the [list] network, receiving a near perfect 4.9 star rating out of five underscoring the quality of the ride experienced. Further (inaudible) we gave customers as well as investors, a look at the advanced software and hardware architectures that are enabling the safe, green and connected solutions our customers are demanding. In total, we had over 100 customer meetings and hosted a number of senior executive customer VIP visits which underscored the increasingly strategic growth Aptiv plays in delivering fully integrated and optimized vehicle architectures. Our technology display showcased our value add across the full vehicle staff from perception sensors or perception systems to cloud with unparalleled strength in advanced safety, the in-cabin experience, data services and our cabinet solutions. As compared to the increases, our customers appreciate that given the architectural right today, is critical to delivering the feature rich, high automated vehicles they need in the future. As a result, we position Aptiv as the only integrated provider of both the brain and the nervous system of the vehicle, capable of conceiving, classifying and delivering the advanced architectures, making the future of mobility real. So with that I’ll hand the call over to Joe to take us through the fourth quarter and full year results and review our outlook for 2019. Joe?
Joe Massaro:
Thanks Kevin and good morning everyone. Starting with the recap of the fourth quarter financials on slide 10, revenue, operating income and earnings per share came in at the upper end of the guidance we gave back in October. We saw a strong sales growth in the quarter, revenue of 3.6 billion up 8% or 11 points of our vehicle production, reflecting the continued ramp of new program launches and both advanced safety and user experience and signal and power solutions. EBITDA and operating income of $600 million and $430 million reflected the benefits of strong volume growth partially offset by FX and commodity headwinds and investments in future growth. Earnings per share $1.34, up 5%, $0.13 above the midpoint of our guidance, a combination of higher operating income and a slightly lower share count for roughly half of the EPS fee, while a lower than expected tax rate contributed $0.07 of upside in the quarter. Lastly, operating cash flow was $750 million, reflecting earnings growth and favorable working capital performance. Turning to slide 11, the continued strong launch volume we’ve had over the past year, drove double digit growth over market, which help to offset a decline in vehicle production, unfavorable price and the FX commodity headwinds. From a retail perspective, we saw a strong growth over market in all major regions of the world, despite weakness in Europe and China markets. North America sales were up 16 points over market, benefiting from multiple new platform launches in both segments and the addition of Winchester Interconnect. Europe saw 8 points of growth over market driven by continued active safety and infotainment ramp ups and China grew 9 points over market, partially offsetting lower than expected production volumes. Slide 12 looks at our operating income performance year-over-year. Operating income of $430 million was down 4%, up 3% when adjusted for FX and commodities. Tariffs in the quarter were approximately $5 million. Our operational performance continues to fund investments in our key growth areas including high voltage electrification, active safety, infotainment and mobility. Margins adjusted for FX and commodities were 12.5%, reflecting volume conversion on strong sales growth, offsetting unfavorable price and the impact of higher mobility investment spending. Strong operating performance yielded higher earnings per share in the quarter, as shown in the walk on slide 13. Earnings per share of $1.34 was up 5% year-over-year including a $0.12 headwind from FX and commodities in the quarter, offset by strong volume conversion, operational performance, favorable tax and other income. For the year, our tax rate was 14.3%. 2019 is estimated in the range of 14% to 15% and we believe this range an improvement from our prior long term guidance of 15% to 16% is sustainable driven by our recent footprint and portfolio actions. Moving to the statements on the next slide, for the quarter, advance safety and user experience revenues grew 12%, driven by new launch volumes and continued strong growth and active safety up 54%, and infotainment and user experience up 8%. Operating income grew 10% before the impact of higher mobility investments, driven by the accretive benefit of volume growth as well as improved material and manufacturing performance. Our mobility investments for the full year totaled roughly a $160 million, funding development of our next generation automated driving software which will be launched with our new vehicle platform early this year. This represented an increase of $100 million year-over-year, consistent with our previous outlook and for 2019; we continue to expect mobility in investments of approximately $180 million. In summary, another strong year of revenue and operating leverage in the advance safety and user experience segment. Turning to signal and power solutions on the next slide; for the quarter, revenues were up 6% or 9 points over market, driven by new program launches in North America, robust commercial vehicle sales and strong growth and a high voltage electrification despite lower vehicle production globally. Operating income adjusted for the dilutive impact of FX and commodities grew 4%. As we have discussed, the margin rate in 2018 was unfavorably impacted by FX and commodities headwinds related to both the translational and transactional effects of the weaker Euro and Chines RMB in the back half of the year. We expect these headwinds to continue in the first half of 2019 and have been contemplated in our outlook for Q1, which I’ll cover in more detail in a moment. Now turning to slide 16, for a recap of the full year financials; revenue, operating income, earnings and cash flow all came in above the midpoint of guidance we said back in February 2018. Despite macro challenges in the second half, including lower global vehicle production and unfavorably FX and commodities. That’s a testament to the robustness of our business model and reinforces the progress we’ve made on both our portfolio positioning as well as operational efficiency to build a more sustainable business and prove our true side of resiliency. Turning to the next slide, the core tenants of our long term financial framework remain unchanged and we expect comparable performance again in 2019, before the impact of tariffs, which I’ll address in more detail shortly. Revenue and earnings growth are been driven by our portfolio of relevant technologies and their ability to sustain above market growth. Our flexible and efficient workforce along with our relentless focus on operating performance continually improves our cost structure. This enables us to fund investments in key growth areas as well continue our track record of sustainable earnings growth. The operating income walk on the right lays out the puts and take for the year. Volume from record 2018 launches will continue in the next year, more than offsetting lower vehicle production as Kevin reference earlier. Our annual pricing headwinds are 2% in line with our historical run rate. Based on current estimates, we expect to see an unfavorable year-over-year impact from FX and commodities. Our material and manufacturing productivity and our cost reduction actions will more than offset higher engineering investments and inflation. And lastly, we’re addressing the US-China tariffs directly, with our mitigation strategies already underway, we now expect tariff costs to be roughly $69 in 2019. As a result of our long running focus on cost and productivity improvements, we’re confident we can continue to grow earnings at the forecasted volume levels. Turning to the next slide for 2019 guidance; for the year, we expect revenue to be in the range of $14.6 billion to $15 billion, up 6% of the midpoint, despite global vehicle production down 2.5%, with growth over market of over 8%. Looking at the segment and starting with advance safety and user experience, we expect near double-digit revenue growth in 2019 driven by continued strength in active safety of 45%. And as we previewed last year, infotainment and user experience revenues will grow in mid-single digit, wrapping strong launch volumes in 2018, as we prepare to launch our next gen Integrated Cockpit Controller in 2020. In addition, we’ll see the roll-off of the display audio product line in the first half of 2019 impacting year-over-year growth. In signal and power solutions, we expect mid-single digit revenue growth again in 2019, driven by continued growth across the segment and the accretive benefit of recent acquisitions. Operating income is expected to be $1.82 billion as a midpoint before the impact to tariffs, and as a result we expect earnings per share in the range of $5.45 to $5.65 per share excluding tariffs, up 6% at the midpoint with share count flat year-over-year, with cash flow of $1.7 billion up mid-single digits over 2018. As it relates to tariffs, we are looking at those as discrete items from a mitigation perspective, and are in the process of executing a number of actions that will reduce tariff exposure going into 2020. As a result, we estimate our US-China tariff exposure to be approximately $60 million in 2019, reflecting the work that’s been done to reduce the $75 million exposure we previously communicated. Tariffs will primarily impact signal and power solutions approximately 50 million of the 60, with the remainder in advanced safety and user experience. For the first quarter, revenue is expected in the range of $3.4 billion to $3.5 billion, up 1% at the midpoint or 5 points of growth over market, given our outlook for global vehicle production down 4%, with China production down 11% in the quarter. Operating income and EPS before tariffs are expected to be $345 million and $1.03 at the midpoint respectively, reflecting the impact of a slowdown in China and the FX in commodity headwinds I mentioned previously. As well as higher engineering and mobility spend, tariffs for the quarter are estimated to be $10 million. In summary for 2019, despite the reduction in vehicle production, with our portfolio of relevant technologies, we will continue to outgrow the market and we will continue to invest in the future growth of our key product lines. As Kevin mentioned, we do this for our relentless focus on improving our cost structure, positioning Aptiv to continue to grow earnings and cash flow even in a down production environment. Turning to slide 19 and as Kevin highlighted earlier, in 2018 we again executed on our capital deployment strategy to create value for shareholders. We invested in the business to support our strong bookings growth and fast growing product line such as active safety and (inaudible). We invested $1.2 billion in accretive Bolton acquisitions, KUM and Winchester, which expanded the geographic and end market diversification of our signal and power solutions business. And lastly, we returned over $700 million to shareholders through share repurchases and dividends in 2018, bringing total cash to shareholders to over $6 billion since our IPO. Looking forward we’ll continue to maintain a consistent and well balanced approach to capital allocation aligned to our strategic framework, focusing on reinvesting in our business both organically and inorganically while maintaining our investment grade credit rating and paying a competitive dividend. Our M&A strategy focuses on accretive bolt-ons which provide attractive end market diversification as well as advanced technologies that accelerate speed to market and also provide access to new markets. And to the extent that we can take advantage of market disconnects, we’ll be opportunistic in our share buyback and returning cash to shareholders. To this end, today we announced a new $2 billion share repurchase authorization, incremental to the roughly $500 million remaining on our current authorization. In summary, we believe our effective capital deployment is a major differentiator for Aptiv and an important lever for shareholder value generation. And with that I’d like to hand the call back to Kevin for his closing remarks.
Kevin Clark:
Thanks Joe. Let me wrap up on slide 20 before opening up for Q&A. 2018 was a great first year for Aptiv, where we delivered on our financial commitment, revenue, operating income, earnings per share and cash flow, even in a more challenging macro environment. Our performance underscores the journey we’ve been on to prove our true cycle performance by having right portfolio of advanced technologies enabling the safe, green and connected solutions that the customers are increasingly demanding. The right cost structure, driving earnings and cash flow growth, while continuing to invest our future and the right people and processes to deliver the innovation and execution inherent in our strategy. Looking ahead, the senior management team has never been more confident in our competitive position and excited about our future. Aptiv is perfectly positioned to continue capitalizing on the key global Auto 2.0 mega trends, driving increased vehicle content and market share gains. We’ve done this while improving our cost base which gives us great confidence in our outlook for 2019 and beyond. We remain laser focused on delivering value to our shareholders today, building upon our strong track record of value enhancing and balanced capital deployment. As a result, we have a more predictable and sustainable business model, with robust downturn resiliency, better position to perform in any macro environment. With that, let’s open the line up for Q&A.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] your first question comes from the line of Dan Galves with Wolfe Research. Dan your line is open.
Dan Galves:
Regarding China, it looks like you guys expect to underperform the market in Q1, and then significantly outperform over the course of the year. Can you talk a little bit about what’s going on in Q1 and what’s going to turn that around in the next three quarters?
Kevin Clark:
Dan, its Kevin, why don’t I start and Joe can certainly augment by response. Really when you look at China and our growth over the market in China in the first quarter it comes down to specific OE mix, and specific platform mix within OE. So there are a couple of OE’s but we’re seeing significant scheduled reductions during the first quarter and the net result for that is our revenue dropping below market. And as we look at the go-forward schedules, Q3 and beyond, we actually see some of that activity one lapping, two new launches and just three, more stabilization of both the production schedule on those particular platforms. So there are three or four OEs that we’re seeing fairly significant reductions in schedules for Q1.
Dan Galves:
Got it, and then just following up on that. Do you think some of this is related to inventory de-stocking in Q1, and I guess like are you counting on big launches in the balance of the year and kind of have your heard anything about delays in launches or anything like that.
Kevin Clark:
I would say there’s no major launches from a volume standpoint, continued strong growth in active safety vehicle, electrification, infotainment, user experience. But we experience that throughout quite clinically 2017 and 2018, so that’s just a continuation. With respect to its schedules for Q4 and Q1, certainly a significant portion of that is tied to inventory rebalancing or inventory reduction. As you know, visibility to inventory levels in China is less than perfect. But based on what we see they are certainly coming down. But there is also a consumer demand aspect that’s taken place over the last two quarters. But having said that as you look at Q2 through Q4, it’s not as though we’re betting on or planning on significant launch programs. And with respect to delays in that market, quite frankly we haven’t seen any. So it’s really been volume schedules on existing platforms, principally passenger car platforms.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Joe Spak with RBC Capital Markets. Joe, your line is open.
Joe Spak:
May be first a little bit of a clarification like, if I look at slide 11 adjusted growth of 8%, it looks like the acquisitions are maybe in that revolving number. So, I was wondering if you could call out how much that added, and then also how you’re dealing with the acquisition in your 8% growth over market guidance for ’19?
Joe Massaro:
Joe there’s smaller deals there and there, particularly KUM, as that was sort of a full on integration, so that started to move things between plans. KUM’s actually got to pick up some of the volume that’s coming out of – some of the production that’s coming out of China to deal with tariffs, so that’s one’s getting a little mix, but Q4 call it about 1.5 and then 2018 call it about 2 points of growth coming from those two deals for our numbers.
Joe Spak:
Sorry, in ’18 or ’19 two points?
Joe Massaro:
I’m sorry in ’19. About 1.5 in Q4 and 2 points in ’19.
Joe Spak:
And then just on the tariffs, sorry if I missed this, but what exactly are you assuming, is it [tier one] was through 10% for now, going to 25%, do you assume it stays at 10%? And like the numbers you gave is that growth in fact before the mitigations you mentioned in your China deal?
Joe Massaro:
Yes, so that’s right. So we’ve got 60 million and that’s the total exposure, okay. So its 10 million in Q1 and then at this point evenly throughout the last three quarters. The 10 in Q1 is at the lower rates through January and February, then stepping up to the 25% in March, and we assume 25% for the balance of the year. We’ve left the full number in the guide at this point, we’ve got a number of remediation actions, but to some extent they will get out of our control when they take effect, right, when the customer approval and those types of things. So at this point based on what we know in tariffs, I’d says that 60 is the worst case and it’s in there. We made some progress over the course of fourth quarter remediating from the 75 to 60. That was what I’ll call may be some of the lower hanging fruit in the remediation plans where we could have multiple sources for the product, could source from another location, so you could make more sort of, I call it easier changes in the product flow. Those actions have taken place and those costs are now out for 2019.
Joe Spak:
So fair to say you have some ideas about how you can go to mitigate this, unclear whether they come through, but you’re not counting on them in your guide?
Joe Massaro:
I would say Joe its more than ideal, as I mentioned we got a wholesome production out of China, we’re going to put it in to Korea that process has started. But we got to get the line up in Korea, then there is obviously customer validation. So that’s really the issue with the timing. It’s not that we’ve got ideas, we’re not sure they’ll work. We’re in motion on things, but by the time they get approved by customers, we’re just not sure what the exact timing looks like if that makes sense.
Kevin Clark:
Operationally we are not assuming these go-away. So the $75 million original estimate reduced to 60 is the result of specific actions that Joe and the team have been driving to reduce the overall exposure and we’re continuing to execute on a whole list of actions, supply chain manufacturing and other wise to reducing that impact. And as Joe said, some of those activities require customer validation. Customers certainly in North America seems to be very engaged, so we would expect to get support in those activities, but we don’t fully control it.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Emmanuel Rosner with Deutsche Bank. Emmanuel your line is open.
Emmanuel Rosner:
Wanted to ask you about your recent performance and the expected one in the context of your, sort of like longer term framework, the way it was communicated that you’re in the best of day a little while ago. So, in particular I think the framework on the revenue side you used call for, 4 to 6 points over market through 2020, 5 to 7 points over the market beyond that. It seems like in 2018 maybe you did 10% over market, are you still planning for 8% in 2019. Are we still within the framework or is there sort of like some upside there, and then similar type of question on the margin front but the other way around. I think that we had been looking 20 bps of expansion in the year initially, may be 30 to 50 beyond that. I think that even excluding some of the macro headwinds, is it fair to say that either we haven’t seen as much expansion as you expected. Is it more expensive to essentially grow this business?
Joe Massaro:
It’s Joe and Kevin can chime in as well. I think on the revenue side we’ve talked about it. We’re obviously running ahead of where we thought we’d be. Back in September of ’17 we see that continuing for 2019 obviously and as we move in to mid-year refresh the longer term revenue outlook at our investor day we’ll certainly be updating that outlook. It is fair to say though particularly the active safety and high voltage business are running ahead of where we thought they’d be at this time. And as Kevin talked about with the bookings that looks like it will continue. But we’ll be updating the longer term numbers mid-year. As it relates to margin rate, I’d really say to our margin and our performance there’s two things, one, the FX and commodity rate impact, the OpEx on the rate has somewhat distorted in 2018 as there’s couple of point of margin. So I do think you got to look through that from the point where we gave the original guidance or the original framework. And we expect that to continue through the first half of ’19. The other thing I mentioned with respect to the operating performance in 2019. We’ve made a decision and I think this will be short term. This will be a sort of 2019 and certainly the first half of 2019. We’ve made a decision to continue to make investments in things like active safety, mobility, high voltage electrification, even though we’ve seen those volumes pull back a bit particularly in China, right, and our view as we thought through the year and the longer term outlooks for the businesses like active safety and high voltage, it didn’t make sense for a couple of quarters of topline pressure in China to pull back on that spend. So that is impacting margins at this point. But again we think longer term it’s the right thing to do if this is more of a short term investing through a couple of quarters here as we work through China. Obviously tariffs we’ve talked about there, there were our unexpected headwinds on operating performance, but we’re committed to working through those in 2019 as well.
Kevin Clark:
I’ll just Joe’s comment, just as an example, as you know we’ve won seven level two, level three active safety programs that will generate significant revenue in 2020 and beyond. And we feel as though given the technical knowledge that we build in and around perception systems, in and around centralized compute, smart vehicle architecture, there’s a real opportunity over the next year or two to significantly enhance that competitive (inaudible), and continue to advance those technologies and the net result – the result over the near term has been, on advancing any of those programs we’re winning well north of what our average win rate is for traditional program, probably closing on 80% or 90% win rate. So in a very rapidly growing market that require advanced technologies, it’s our view just as Joe said that it’s smart to continue to invest in the engineering capability, even though we’re seeing a near term decline in vehicle production.
Joe Massaro:
And with that aside as Kevin mentioned, we’re still very focused on the overhead side of the cost structure. So there’s actions been taken now in China to take down some of the indirect salary costs. So our investment, willingness to continue to invest is very specific to the high growth product lines and we’re continuing to focus on a lot of the other cost elements you see now.
Emmanuel Rosner:
That’s a great color. And then a quick follow-up, I figured I’d ask you about the US closing the hybrid tax loop hole, I assume though there’s no real impact (inaudible) guiding to a specific tax rate which has been optimized for 2019 and that you are sustainable. But have you specifically looked in to it and any impact at all?
Joe Massaro:
Yeah, we have and there is no impact at this point. So we have taken a look at that and our team has been very active on just the rollout of the US tax law changes really for the past year now, but that does not have an impact on us.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of David Leiker with Baird. David your line is open.
Joe Vruwink:
This is Joe Vruwink for David. Other than the industry volumes being better or worse than the assumptions you walked through earlier, can you discuss some of that more meaningful be it mix or take rate assumptions within the guidance like you mentioned some difficult platform exposure in China during Q1. Any other considerations like that as the year goes on that can swing positive or negative relative to your views?
Joe Massaro:
Listen, I think as we talked about through the balance of 2018 and obviously active safety, high voltage running ahead of expectations, I think that would be a hard equivalent of your take rate comment. And I would say – I think Kevin’s comment on China in Q1, there are some platforms, but we’ve got a couple of OEs that are – I think it’s more the inventory balancing comment that Dan made. It’s very specific schedules coming out as they sort of work through inventory. So it’s more on the production side than any type of take rate changes in China. It’s very much, they’re not making the vehicle, so it’s not a question of they’re not making them without active safety, they’re not actually making the cars.
Joe Vruwink:
And one follow-up, Aptiv and Delphi have done a really good job over the years of proactively managing product lines in the portfolio. At the beginning of the call you mentioned display audio, you’re doing some printing there. Any product categories that you look forward and they’re just going to be rolling off because you’ve made a strategic decision to refocus elsewhere?
Kevin Clark:
I was going to say none. Not at this point in time. The display piece as we see, the technology really go to centralized compute and value come out of the display and from our customer standpoint a lot of that display businesses move to direct buy of hardware. The value add and quite frankly the margin profile of that business as well as the concentration of some of the players that are in that display business, whether it’s the conclusion that we’re better off allocating our resources to areas like active safety and smart vehicle architecture, vehicle electrification. So places where we have a real strong competitive position and our market’s growing rapidly and the technology component is much higher. So we ‘re better positioned for it. But other than display as we look forward now, we wouldn’t expect anything else. But it’s something that we regularly evaluate.
Joe Massaro:
And to put it in to context that display business, part of it is, we’re not – we’re letting it wind down. So we stop bidding on it. We are much more focused on sort of a compute platform behind the display than the physical screen itself. That total business is about 200 million in revenue just to put it in to context. So it’s a very small product line that’s just going to phase out overtime. We called it out this quarter just given it’s probably a 50 million in the quarter or 40 million or 50 million in the quarter. I’m sorry for the year about 20 million for the quarter, so it’s a little bit bigger on a quarterly perspective.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Brian Johnson with Barclays Capital. Brian your line is open.
Brian Johnson:
Just a couple of questions, first, kind of more on the longer term, can you tell us more about the potential compute wins, are those the same or different than multi domain controllers. If they are similar to multi domain controllers are they (inaudible) towards cockpit electronics or safety. And then just what sort of a question I often ask kind of the pace of discussions around the various flavors of the next gen architecture you outlined and after it its question number two and when those might actually be hitting backlog.
Kevin Clark:
Maybe I’ll answer the last first. So we have one engineering development program on smart vehicle architecture today with a very large global customer, and likely we’ll end up with the second relatively soon. And are in conversations with I’d say roughly a dozen OEs about that particular activity. So, there are a number of the more advanced technology OEs who are very focused on re-architecting the vehicle and effectively centralizing compute platforms. Our multi domain controller, yes they are the same. We’ve won I guess 11 multi domain or central compute platforms Brian. Of those 11, roughly 7 are in and around ADAS. We have a couple, two or three that are in and around Cockpit Controllers and then a couple that are really around chassis and powertrain. So we’re seeing a significant trend towards, for consolidation of compute platforms that ultimately in our view arise at the concept that we laid out from a smart vehicle architecture standpoint. There will be a period of time that we’ll go through sort of a process call it over the next seven or eight years, but ultimately we firmly believe for OEs to build the vehicle that they are looking to build to satisfy customer demand for whether it be vehicle electrification or active safety solutions or vehicle connectivity, the whole vehicle architecture needs to be rethought. And we feel as though based on our conversations with OEs and feedback from them we’re at the forefront of helping them rethink that.
Brian Johnson:
And second summer related question, I believe their share in growing harnesses and engineered component connectors has been roughly 35% to 40% and somewhat different competitors in that categories. Eventually your win rate are on some of the ADAS stuff earlier, what’s been your win rate in electrical, is it more traditional electrical businesses, is it increasing or is it kind of the market share is roughly the same, but you might be gravitating towards higher value applications?
Kevin Clark:
And so on the connector engineered component I would say it’s been high over the last couple of years, part of that is market share gains with an auto, part of that is focusing the portfolio outside of auto in areas like commercial vehicle where we’ve been less focused, as well as a real push through some of our acquisitions like Winchester, like KUM trying to grow outside of transportation in total, but within in the auto market we’re gaining share there. On the wire side, I would say, we’re growing based on bookings and revenue growth basically at market maybe a little above.
Joe Massaro:
Yeah Brian, a good example within that SPS segment I mentioned at my prepared remarks. The commercial vehicle business and SPS alone, we were close to 20% growth this year for our signal and power solutions. And that base is getting larger, we’re over a 1 billion of revenue, so it’s not necessarily off of a small base anymore. So we’re seeing a lot of uptake from commercial vehicle OEs and our connection systems and our electrical distribution system technology. So I would say that broadly speaking that business is growing its share. As we’ve often talked about and you mentioned, we estimate that business has content on one out of every three and a half vehicles manufactured globally. So it’s got more market in it, so it’s growth rate will always be a little lower than, sometimes its lower than, some like an active safety. But that business is taking share.
Brian Johnson:
And then final question more for modelling purposes, can you give us any sense of your China exposure in terms of different types of OEMs because, for example, premiums held up much better than the lower end of the mass market, Japanese and Korean versus Japanese joint ventures have held up better than the American one. So can you kind of remind us through the pie chart in terms of your end OEM exposure there for and segment exposure?
Joe Massaro:
For 2018, total 23% of our China business was with what we call domestic (inaudible) OEs, 90% of that though was concentrated really in the top 10 OEs. So, it’s a – where as Aptiv, you know given that active safety, infotainment, electrification, we tend to be with the higher, larger domestic Chinese OEs. 77% was with the foreign JVs.
Brian Johnson:
And then kind of premium mass market was in that, those JVs?
Joe Massaro:
I don’t have an exact percentage for us. It tends to be – we do that a lot of the higher end in there, the FAW, BW, the SBW, the Audi types of platforms. We can come back here with a more specific number, we can take a look. I don’t have it at the top of my head, I’m sorry.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of David Tamberrino with Goldman Sachs. David your line is open.
David Tamberrino:
Want to focus on your active safety business, I think with those 57% revenue growth probably around 900 million, how does that compare from a margin perspective for 2018 relative to corporate average. As the growth continues what type of incremental do y you think the business will have on it, and when is that going to be above corporate average in car, materially accretive from a bottom line perspective?
Kevin Clark:
I can start and Joe can fill in with the specifics. But as we’ve talked about, usually when we introduced (inaudible) technology the formula typically is getting, call it 300 million, gives you the breakeven and then beyond that you begin to expand on margins. I’d say, you’re right, we’re above 9 – we’re between 900 and a $1 billion as it relates to revenues. Today those margin rates are roughly at corporate average, and as you head in to the 2019 and beyond and I’ll expand beyond that. So its carrying its full weight from a profitability standpoint.
Joe Massaro:
That’s right. You’re spot on with the 900 million. We finished a little bit over – and Kevin’s comment its within 50 basis points of corporate average now and next year we have it moving well north of that. So this business is a meaningful contributor at this point to the profitability and cash flow of the overall company.
David Tamberrino:
But that’s including or excluding the autonomous investments you’re making?
Joe Massaro:
Active safety that would just be excluding, that’s the product line we’re quoting, not the segment.
David Tamberrino:
So then the incremental for this should be probably high 20s low 30% range going forward on the ADAS side of the business?
Kevin Clark:
Yes, I would say it’s closer to kind of mid 20s as we launch at least early stage some of those level two plus level three programs. That’s a much more advanced solution especially as you approach level three. So I’d say there’s some incremental engineering that goes in and based on timing of that engineering and revenue recognition or launch of those programs that will be a little heavier engineering.
Joe Massaro:
Dan its‘ just the growth in the business right, and I again loved a longer term, but you will see over 40 points of growth next year in active safety will continue maybe slightly below that, but in a very meaningful way in 2020. So we are continuing to grow the infrastructure of this business, so the incremental I’d say – to Kevin’s point, the mid-20s are probably a better estimate for the next couple of years and you got more to leverage as it gets larger.
David Tamberrino:
So then focusing on the autonomous investments, I think delays we had from you it was maybe 20-25 and de-target revenue about 500 million. You’ll probably tell me that you’re just going to update it later in June or whatever the investor day. But want to understand kind of the confidence level you’re getting there and then if there’s any immaterial impact on your growth prospect for the business by potentially the German OEMs and the supplier having an autonomous consortium put together.
Kevin Clark:
I’d say our level of confidence in the 500 million hasn’t changed. So maybe at the investor day we’ll give a more precise number than the 500 million. With respect to discussions across the OE and supplier universe, those have been going on for quite some time, and quite frankly we’re a part of the number of them. And as we contemplated our revenue outlook at our investment requirement, it was under the contemplation that this is a bit how they – there would be a lot of discussions, this is how things would play out. So we wouldn’t see any impact on that that revenue forecast at this point of time and certainly contemplate when we originally estimated the size of the market and our market share.
David Tamberrino:
And lastly for the tariffs, it sounds like a nice job so far going from the 7500 down to 60. You’ve got a couple of more actions coming through with moving of the production lines fine and you’ll through customer validation. Can you share with us the magnitude of what the annualized run rate of those savings would be? I’m not trying to hold you to a timing, but trying to understand how much that would potential be called it a tailwind if it happened at the end of the year and in ’19 and nothings else changed.
Joe Massaro:
Yeah at this point David unfortunately we’re just not (inaudible) along, when we had we would have worked or at least commented to it. So a lot of action being going on. Like I said we’re able to get the low hanging fruit, we’ve already taken care of November and December and now working on some of the bigger projects. Again it’s a stuff we are good at doing, we know how to pick up a production line and move it somewhere else, it’s just a matter of timing, with a fair amount of that timing sort of being out of our control. So, at this point we’ve got the 60 in there and we’ll keep as running update on how we progressed on that through the year.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Itay Michaeli of Citi. Itay your line is open.
Itay Michaeli:
Just a first question on 2019 margins, I guess the guidance implies that you might be running kind of mid-12% beyond Q1. So I was hoping just to talk a little bit more about the cadence throughout the year, and to that is there anything beyond 2019 that will prevent you from running at those margins sustainably?
Joe Massaro:
I know that’s the right way to think about the cadence Itay. Listen, I think the – we’re focused on this long term framework, right. We believe that’s what the business can deliver. We come back to it now 2018 particularly with the FX and commodity moves and also some of these newer macros that came in, the big move in the RMB, and the tariffs, they knock us off that framework for a period of time, but we don’t see anything in tariff remediation or as the FX rates sort of stop moving if you will particularly on the transaction effect or the ability to get back in to that range of margin expansion and we’re also focused, but I think just given the noise and the rate, we will again talk about this later in the year, but focus on just what we think profit growth would look like too overtime. But I don’t see anything at this point that would take off of that longer term track.
Itay Michaeli:
And just my follow-up, you mentioned I think in the slide that the M&A pipeline’s full. Hope to get an update around what you’re looking for and also how the macro environment influences opportunities as well as your willingness to go after deals and manage the balance sheet at the same time?
Joe Massaro:
The pipeline remains full, the strategy has not changed, alright. So we’re looking at these accretive Bolton transactions. A lot of those tend to fall in to SPS, but certainly look across the entire business, there’s also may be some opportunities for some of the technology type transactions, but would tend to be smaller, I think sort of [mobi mentor] and [control tag] type deals. As we’ve said before, we don’t envision another nuTonomy type deal. That was a very strategic acquisition where we deployed a lot of capital for something that’s obviously not accretive in the near term. We would not expect to be doing those. So you’re much more focused on those types of bolt-ons. And I think the macro environment certainly you got be a little more thoughtful around diligence and valuations, but at this point I have not seen that impact the overall level of activity. Got to be a little more thoughtful coming in, and then as I mentioned in my prepared comments, we’re obviously from a capital allocation standpoint going to be focused on both, the accretive M&A opportunities, but at the same time being opportunistic. As it relates to the share buyback and you really saw us do that in Q4. Q4 is a quarter where we put cash to work with the acquisition of Winchester, but also did the $300 million share buyback. So our view is that we remain balanced and focused on both.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of (inaudible). Your line is open.
Unidentified Analyst:
I may have missed it, but have you given the margin outlook by the division and even qualitatively the down 10 to let’s call it 40 basis points. So we think about an equal decline in both divisions?\
Joe Massaro:
Tariffs are a little bit more weighted to SBS as I mentioned in the SPS as I mentioned in my prepared comments. So round about 50 million of the 60 would hit the SPS.
Unidentified Company Participant:
And then Chris I would just also add, for Q1 [SMTS] sees of the free China volume decline which will impact their margin rate for Q1 in addition to the FX and commodity head wins in Q1. Most of that 20 million of OI impact in Q1 hit us Chris.
Unidentified Analyst:
That sort of leads in to the second question; one of your competitors in electrical has talked about sort of different margins on legacy contracts or by region with potentially higher margins in Europe on higher content, which makes sense. Should we think about the regional exposure in a similar way for your electrical architecture and that’s detrimental while Europe weak could be harsher there. You mentioned obviously China the rate of change is bad, but also its something to think about as we think may be in the second half where Europe could be, rate of change better that we’d also see the incremental get better as well.
Kevin Clark:
Chris this is Kevin. On a corporate basis I’d say we’re relatively balanced across regions with – actually for us Europe being a bit below the corporate average and North America and AsiaPac being a bit above. And all of that really ties at least for us cost of doing business in Europe relative to cost of doing business in North America is a bit higher. So we would across our portfolio tend to have lower margins than Europe than we have in Asia Pacific or North America.
Unidentified Analyst:
And if I can just sneak one more in, just because you gave the number, I didn’t have a chance to go back historically, but on the buyback authorization the 2 billion on top of the 500, you know you’ve been doing sort of in the 400 to 500 range and obviously over the last couple of years you’ve been dialing back to the buy back to the heavier on the acquisition side. It’s a big number and it obviously takes five years to do at the current rate. Could you talk a little bit about the pace and how you’re balancing the two about doing acquisition just sort of late in the cycle?
Joe Massaro:
The authorization is higher than our last prior authorization which was at a 1.05 billion. I wouldn’t read in to that a big shift in capital allocation strategy. We’re going to remain very balanced, but it is more. I was aware, as they mention on Q4, we’re like most things we kind of manage that fairly actively when we said we’re going to be opportunistic, we tried to be. So Q4 is a good example, again now almost 700 million of cash used for the Winchester acquisition, but as we looked at – while you could [prefer] to market this location particularly as you got in to December. Our view was that it was – that would be a good time to be opportunistic and we did, and I think we’ll continue to manage that way as we go.
Kevin Clark:
And Chris, Joe and I both talked a lot about cost structure. Internally as a management team although its maybe not as sexy to some people with autonomous driving, for us we spend half our time on how do we optimize cost structure. And we talk about breakeven, since we went public we lowered our breakeven level by 10 points, so that we really focused on how do we drive as much flexibility and much resiliency in our business model, which translates into more cash flow. And in a tough year right, when we look at the macros for this year, we’re going to generate about $1 billion of free cash flow. And we don’t have to announce huge restructuring programs across the enterprise, we’ve already done that, right, which allows us to if we find attractive, strategic, well value M&A opportunities, we can move on. We certainly look at, we evaluate them through the lens of how does that return compared to buying back our own stock. But it puts us into great position to have options. And with a tough macro environment and we work really hard every day to make sure that we preserve optionality, and we think there’s tremendous value in that.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Rick Kwas with Wells Fargo Securities. Rick your line is open.
Rick Kwas:
Kevin on the win from last quarter report with the body and chassis control, how do you see additional wins or announcements coming out over the next couple of years, how do you see the cadence playing out?
Kevin Clark:
Listen I would expect it, and obviously bookings inside the bookings, there’s lumpiness to it. But I would say the activity is going to continue to significantly ramp up. I think one of the great things with (inaudible) is not only is a new domain for us and it validates that centralization. It’s actually with the [BW], I think it gets our third or fourth central compute win. So its shows - in our view it validates kind of the strategic relationship that you establish with vis-à-vis when you’re dealing with the highly tactical complex problems, and it reflects the (inaudible) that Joe and I have mentioned before that we’ve been able to build based on our capabilities in vehicle architecture as well as in software.
Rick Kwas:
Is that weighted towards Europe OEs or Chinese OEs or how --?
Kevin Clark:
Today it tends to be more weighted towards European OEs, tend to be more weighted to the high, the more technical higher and European OEs, but the reality is even on the active safety side, given the ability to centralize, to take out math, to take cost and improve performance, we’re seeing that we have wins with and IPSA is a great example, with players like PSA they are looking for great technology solutions at lower costs. So our general view is you’re going to see it across both European OEs and who’s going to accelerate.
Rick Kwas:
And then two for Joe, just on operating inefficiencies, I don’t know, I think launch costs are included in this, but it was 65 million I think was the last update we had for ’18. I don’t know how that ended, but what’s the assumption for ’19? And then separately, on tariffs I think best case scenario we get [Kumbaya] already gets together and tariffs go away. Does this net incremental impact for ’19 completely go away or is there some leakage around some of the activities you’re embarking on or already completed?
Joe Massaro:
So let me start, so the inefficiencies we ended right about where we entered. We had 35 in the fourth quarter and 30 in Q3 and that’s about where we came in. The way we thought about it for plan and this is what we’re talking about at the end of last year, with a little bit more of a planning horizon we started to adjust the cost structure. So I’d say at this point, we talked about China cost coming out, so we’ve dealt with inefficiencies if you will in the guide through longer term cost action. So that was really – those inefficiencies tend to pop up in are more discrete period of time when you have quicker changes and volume rich. So less of a discussion for ’19 and they are in there and they’re being dealt with now that we have sort of the longer term plans from the customers. As it relates to tariffs that’s one of the reason we’re sort of behaving as if they’re not going away. We’re starting to move things, so that if we’re incurring some cost related to tariffs, we’re incurring a little bit of CapEx to move plans, so you have that. If they were to go away tomorrow, we’d obviously have given those costs, but just as we’re not sure of their going away, I don’t anybody can be sure. We want to get ahead of them, so there is some investment in some small incremental cost that go in to business to deal with them. But to your question if they were to go away tomorrow, whatever obviously whatever point in the year we are in, the remaining portion of that 60 should go away, and that’s one of the reason we’re trying to sort of frame it the way we do externally.
Rick Kwas:
So on a pro rata basis that goes away. So there’s no leakage around cost and stuff, that’s already included.
Joe Massaro:
Yeah, its included, but we’re spending that money right, and we’re not [developing]. And we’ll work through over the course of the next couple of quarters what that actual remediation looks like. But at this point based on everything we know, 60 is the max, so we’ll be better from there.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Ryan Brinkman from JP Morgan. Ryan your line is open.
Ryan Brinkman:
One of your active safety competitors has commented that automakers have delayed the launch of some new vehicles perhaps to save money and the top tier industry environment pressuring the revenue in 2019, even as the long term outlook is unchanged or better. Are you just curious what if anything you might be seeing with regard to launch delays? I ask in part because I think this would negatively impact strong backlog stories such your own, given that new vehicles are likely to have more active content per vehicle in the existing programs. And similar to the conservative industry assumptions you are introducing, I think it would perhaps cast your 2019 revenue guidance even more favorable lines.
Kevin Clark:
Ryan we haven’t seen any program delays. No delays, no shifting, no cancelation, really in any region. Now we’ve seen in North America and other passenger car volumes, sedan volume as you know, I mean you follow us closely as we do. Significant reduction in those sorts of vehicle platforms and they’ve been in and out and they’ve tended to be replaced with whether its cross over SUV or truck volumes. But we’ve not seen delays or cancellations of future programs.
Ryan Brinkman:
And then lastly from me, are you seeing anything or what’s the latest you’re seeing in terms of the latest when it comes to automaker plants for some of the autonomous features? I think there was some discussion about maybe level four or five being a little bit later, but at the same time interest in level two or level two plus coming sooner than was expected. Is that the trend you’re seeing and how should that net out for Aptiv?
Joe Massaro:
Well we’re definitely seeing investment or a pull-forward two plus, level three minus, level three. So, the amount of our business opportunity or your programs here that we’re working with OEs on our quoting, and I’d say it’s higher than what we would have expected a year or two ago. The level four, level five programs, I am not really sure I would say we’ve seen really a delay. I think in general it’s a tough problem to solve, the people are working on solving those tough problems and their players like ourselves as well as a few other out there that will be launching platforms over the next couple of years. But I would tell you active safety is a significant. Given our growth rate, given the amount of bookings, we’ve seen a significant increase in activity in and around active safety.
Ryan Brinkman:
And just as a follow-up to that, when it comes to the level four or level five, obviously a lot of auto makers who have the supply base do it all. Some of the auto makers have been pretty vertically entreated. Is that more when it comes to testing? When they move from testing to commercialization do you think that some of the companies that have been doing a lot of development in-house will impact, end up utilizing the supply base or things like drive our policies off line etcetera.
Joe Massaro:
Yeah, I think for some of the software and some of the software integration and certainly for perception systems. So I would tell you with virtually every OE out there that has an AD program today and internally whether they are doing all the work themselves or doing across partners, I believe we’re providing them with some product whether its architecture, whether its perception system, whatever the case might be. So whether or not we’re doing the full software stack, there still is a tremendous opportunity for players like ourselves.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of (inaudible). Your line is open.
Unidentified Analyst:
[Technical Difficulty]
Elena Rosman:
I think we have time for one more question.
Operator:
Your last question comes from the line of John Murphy from Bank of America. John your line is open.
John Murphy:
Well I just had one follow-up question on China, and Kevin I hate to kind of parse your word like this. But when you were talking about page 8 on China, you mentioned something about getting ready for structurally lower volumes and obviously you’re taking the word for its actions. Just curious as you think about that, in absolute terms is that growth rate and then as you’re kind of thinking about the actions you’re taking on the workforce side in ’15 we saw a sort of whips on the scare sort of growth scare there. Is there any concern that you might see similar even though we’re not hearing it yet, coming in any kind of bump stuff up there. And the other node to this though is, that even if we saw slower growth or maybe lower absolute volume growth from a cyclical standpoint here in China, does the content growth story for you just stands so strong that your 10% growth above market maybe just expands and you’re not sort of tethered to this macro that I think we’re all concerned about right now.
Kevin Clark:
Yes, listen what we’re basically saying is, our outlook, we’ve seen three straight quarters of weak production growth and our outlook for the full year based on the schedules we see on unit volume. It is down and I think if you do that math, our number is affectively for 2019 a 26 million unit China, right. Now that’s a huge market. Those are – when you put in perspective with Europe and North America that’s a massive market. And of that 26 million units, our outlook is you’d have growth but growth would be more tempered that what its historically been. Having said that, given where we sit from a technology standpoint, our growth over market, we believe will continue to be extremely strong. If that possibly accelerate just given the demand for things like active safety, infotainment, user experience and vehicle electrification. So although a lower production level, growth over market and revenue growth - just pure revenue growth will continue to be extremely strong. So we’re positive about China, we’re positive about where we sit in China. We think you’re going to see lower growth than what we had historically seen over the last 10 years.
Joe Massaro:
Just to add a little context, those three product lines, where as it relates to China all three of those triple digit growth next for us in China, as we start to go through on a product line basis. So, like our taste it’s going to be well over a 100% revenue growth. So there’s small, but they’ve been trimming a lot of growth to that business.
John Murphy:
The work force actions are, are those sort of a rebalancing and we can expect some other folks to be hired in other areas, meaning you are tempted, you are kind of going after the work force, but you’re still seeing growth and trying to understand the balance between those two.
Joe Massaro:
Yes, and that’s the balance. The balances are from a revenue growth standpoint which is a region that’s growing. I think we view this as an opportunity quite frankly to tighten the belt, and regardless of whether the market rebounds strongly, I don’t think you’d see us doing any real whipsawing there. I think you’re just operating off of a lower overhead face.
John Murphy:
And just last one on the SVA, you said you’re selling to about a dozen other automakers, could those be outside of our traditional and be companies like a [Radian] or a bike or something like that might be out there that you’ve been talking to and its seems like they would be really interested in it?
Kevin Clark:
Those discussions would be outside as a number that doesn’t arrive (inaudible) front, but yes, we are well aware of all them and had ongoing dialog with all of them.
Elena Rosman:
Kevin, you want to (inaudible).
Kevin Clark:
So listen everyone, thank you very much for taking the time to get an update on our fourth quarter earnings as well as our outlook for 2019. We appreciate your time and we certainly appreciate you as investors. So thank you.
Operator:
This concludes today’s conference call. You may now disconnect.
Executives:
Elena Rosman - Vice President of Investor Relations Kevin Clark - President and Chief Executive Officer Joe Massaro - Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Analysts:
Chris McNally - Evercore Dan Galves - Wolfe Research Joseph Spak - RBC Capital Markets Joe Vruwink - Baird John Murphy - Bank of America Merrill Lynch David Tamberrino - Goldman Sachs Rich Kwas - Wells Fargo Itay Michaeli - Citi Brian Johnson - Barclays Maynard Um - Macquarie Steven Fox - Cross Research
Operator:
Good morning. My name is Albert, and I will be your conference facilitator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Aptiv Q3 2018 Earnings Conference Call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. And after the speakers’ remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] I would now like to turn the call over to Elena Rosman, Aptiv’s, Vice President of Investor Relations. Elena, you may begin your conference.
Elena Rosman:
Thank you, Albert. Good morning, and thank you to everyone for joining Aptiv’s third quarter 2018 earnings conference call. To follow along with today’s presentation, our slides can be found at ir.aptiv.com. Consistent with prior calls, today’s review of our actual and forecasted financials exclude restructuring and other special items and will address the continuing operations of Aptiv. The reconciliation between GAAP and non-GAAP measures for both our Q3 financials, as well as our outlook for the fourth quarter and full year are included at the back of the presentation and in the earnings press release. Please see slide two for disclosure on forward-looking statements, which reflects Aptiv’s current view of future financial performance, which may materially be different from our actual performance for reasons that we cite in our Form 10-K and other SEC filings. Joining us today will be Kevin Clark, Aptiv’s President and CEO; and Joe Massaro, CFO and Senior Vice President. Kevin will provide a strategic update on the business and then Joe will cover the financial results on our outlook for 2018 in more detail. With that, I would like to turn the call over to Kevin Clark.
Kevin Clark:
I'm going to begin by providing an overview of the third quarter. I'll highlight some of the key new customer awards and cover recent developments across the business. Joe will then take you through our detailed financial results for the third quarter as well as our outlook for the fourth quarter. Our strong third quarter results reflect our ability to consistently drive sustained outperformance. We delivered 11% revenue growth. That represents a record 13 points over market; the result of double-digit growth over market in both our Advanced Safety and User Experience, and Signal and Power Solutions segments. Operating income totaled $420 million, that's up 7%, while earnings per share reached $1.24, an increase of 8% over the prior year. Operating margins declined 40 basis points, driven by unfavorable FX rates and commodity prices. Excluding the impact of FX and commodities, margins increased 30 basis points. In the face of softening global vehicle production, achieving the revenue, operating income and earnings guidance we provided back in July reflects the strong demand for our portfolio of technologies aligned to the safe, green and connected mega trends, as well as our flexible cost structure. We believe it's prudent, given both the weakening of customer schedules that began late in the third quarter and the significant change in FX rates to adjust our financial outlook for the fourth quarter to reflect a more choppy macro environment. Joe will take you through the details in a moment, but we now expect global vehicle production to be down roughly 0.5 point for the full year. Moving to the right side of the slide, we continued our record pace of new business awards totaling almost $16 billion year-to-date, and putting us solidly on track to exceed our prior year record of over $19 billion. Our recent customer awards are at the intersection of Auto 2.0 trends. As always, look to accelerate their adoption of higher levels of advanced safety, electrification and connectivity. And as a result, we're booking new business, because we have the right software, compute and integration capabilities required to help accelerate OE adoption. Lastly, our Mobility and Services Group continues to make progress on next generation automated driving software, vehicle architecture and connected services, which are gaining commercial momentum and will be on display at CES 2019. In summary, another strong quarter, further validating that our operating model, technology portfolio and business strategy can deliver continued outperformance in any environment. On Slide 4, you can see the third quarter new business bookings totaled $4.4 billion, bringing the year-to-date total to $15.6 billion. The record bookings levels are the direct result of our widening competitive mode in several advanced technologies. We booked $2.4 billion of active safety awards year-to-date, and are on track to reach over $3 billion for the full year. Year-to-date infotainment and user experience customer awards totaled $1.5 billion, already surpassing last year's levels. Our engineered components business has booked $4.7 billion of new customer awards year-to-date, including almost $750 million of high voltage connectors, contributing to the 50% [ph] growth in high voltage electrification awards year-to-date. Our continued momentum in new business bookings reinforces our outlook for continued strong revenue growth, driven by our transition to a more integrated solutions provider, creating the software and hardware foundation that enables new features and functions while optimizing the total system cost for the vehicle. Turning to segment highlights in Advanced Safety and User Experience on Slide 5. Sales were up 14%, or 15 points over market, driven by 68% growth in active safety. As we highlighted on last quarter's earnings call, we're starting to lap new infotainment program launches and are gearing up for our next generation Integrated Cockpit Controller launch in 2020. As the need for more complex software development and systems integration expertise increases, our unique ability to offer highly functional yet optimized solutions has driven several of our recent new business awards, including our six highly scalable Level 2+ ADAS systems, with a major North American OEM. Each of these programs or each of these awards leverage our unique smart vehicle architecture approach, which dovetails very nicely with our Level 4 and Level 5 automated driving commercial pursuits, which are with both the ride-hailing companies, serving the mobility market, as well as select automotive OEs. Turning to Slide 6. Our success of developing and commercializing high-speed central compute platforms are a significant competitive advantage, enabling more automated and connected vehicle content. Our earlier wins in active safety and infotainment are now being broadened to include the body, chassis and powertrain domains. During the third quarter, we booked a high profile compute platform with Porsche and Audi, representing another industry first for Aptiv and our third area of vehicle domain centralization with the VW Group. We're providing automotive OEs with a highly complex hardware and software architecture, including the functional safety components necessary to combine the body, chassis and powertrain controls across multiple vehicle types and powertrain configurations. In short, this new business award from Porsche and Audi validates our approach to domain centralization and the evolution to smart vehicle architecture, which is unique in the industry and is helping us win in the marketplace. Turning to Slide 7. Our Signal and Power Solutions segment is focused on next generation vehicle architecture, including high speed data and high-power electrical distribution to enable the advanced technologies that will shape the future of mobility. This segment's strong double-digit growth over market during the third quarter was driven by several new platform launches in North America, which more than offset weakness in vehicle production schedules in China and Europe. We continue to have strong sales of engineered components and record revenue growth in high voltage electrification products. Reflecting the breadth and depth of our technology portfolio, during the third quarter, we were awarded a number of next generation component and system programs, including wireless charging for Hyundai and USB hubs for a major European OE to improve the in-cabin cockpit experience, as well as the electrical architecture for new line of light commercial vehicles in China and the high voltage AC/DC charging inlets for a high volume Volkswagen platform. Lastly, we closed on the acquisition of Winchester Interconnect last week, and we're confident that Winchester's talented management team will help to accelerate the growth of our $1.5 billion of adjacent end-market revenues. Diving deeper into our high-voltage electrification technology portfolio within the Signal and Power Solutions segment on Slide 8. Our strong pipeline of new business awards and year-to-date revenue growth underscore that we're at a significant inflection point in the growth of this product line. We're confident that by 2022 almost 13 million of the vehicles produced annually will include a high-voltage electrified powertrain. China's new energy vehicle initiative is driving increased powertrain electrification and the more stringent European CO2 standards mean that European OEs cannot achieve the new CO2 targets without the combination of plug-in hybrids and battery electric vehicles. On the left side of the slide is our total addressable content per vehicle for the full range of high-voltage alternatives, including traditional hybrids, plug-ins and fully electric vehicles. Our 2018 high-voltage electrification revenues are expected to total roughly $300 million. That's up over 60% year-over-year, making it one of our fastest growing and profitable product lines. Based on the value of our new business bookings, this product lines reach over $1 billion of revenues in 2022, representing a 40% compounded growth rate. We're confident that we're well positioned to outperform the underlying market, as we continue to benefit from the increased demand for high-voltage electrification, as well as the accelerating adoption of advanced safety and connectivity solutions. So with that, I'm going to hand the call over to Joe. And Joe will take us through the third quarter results and review our updated guidance for 2018.
Joe Massaro:
Thanks, Kevin, and good morning, everyone. Starting with a recap of the third quarter financials on Slide 9. Revenue, income and earnings came in right in line with the guidance we gave back in July. We saw strong sales growth in the quarter. Revenue was $3.5 billion, up 11% or 13 points above vehicle production, reflecting the continued ramp of new program launches in both Advanced Safety and User Experience, and Signal and Power Solutions. EBITDA and operating income increased 10% and 7%, respectively, and adjusted for FX and commodities, EBITDA and operating income were up 15% and 13%, while funding incremental investments in future growth. Earnings per share of $1.24 was up 8%, which included $0.11 impact from our mobility investments. Lastly, operating cash flow was $138 million, reflecting increased working capital to support the acceleration of growth. Turning to Slide 10. The continued strong launch volume we've had over the past year drove double-digit growth over market in both segments, which helped to offset a decline in vehicle production, unfavorable price and the FX and commodities headwinds. From a regional perspective, we saw accelerated growth over market in all major regions of the world, despite weakness in Europe from WLTP regulations and lower than expected volumes. North America sales were up 18 points over market, benefiting from multiple new platform launches, more than offsetting the continued weakness in passenger car volumes. Europe and China saw 9 points and 7 points of growth over market, respectively, more than offsetting lower production volumes in both regions. Slide 11 walks our operating income performance year-over-year. Operating income of $420 million was up 7%, or 13% when adjusted for FX and commodities. Our operational performance continues to fund investments in our key growth areas, including high-voltage electrification, active safety, infotainment and mobility. Underlying margins expanded 30 basis points, adjusted for FX and commodities, reflecting some volume conversion on strong sales growth, offsetting some operational inefficiencies tied to production variability. Strong operating performance yielded higher earnings per share in the quarter, as shown in the walk on Slide 12. Earnings per share were $1.24, up 8%, consistent with prior guidance, while operating income growth translating into $0.20 of earnings, partially offset by $0.10 from unfavorable FX and commodities, while all other below the line items, including tax, netted to a $0.01 headwind. Moving to the segments on the next slide. Advanced Safety and User Experience revenues grew 14% in the quarter, driven by new launch volumes and continued strong growth in active safety, which was up 68%. Operating income grew 33%, and margins expanded 180 basis points before the impact of higher mobility investments, driven by the accretive benefit of volume growth, as well as improved material and manufacturing performance. Our mobility investments totaled roughly $40 million in the quarter, an increase of $30 million year-over-year, and we continue to expect full year mobility spending of $160 million. Segment revenue growth is now expected to be approximately 17% for the full year, and is well positioned for continued strong growth and operating leverage beyond 2018. Turning to Signal and Power Solutions on the next slide. Revenues were up 10% in the quarter, driven by new product launches in North America and strong growth in engineered components and high-voltage electrification, as Kevin mentioned earlier. Operating income grew 8%, and margins, adjusted for the dilutive impact of FX and commodities, were up 90 basis points in the quarter. As we discussed last quarter, operating profit growth and margin expansion from higher volumes is being negatively impacted by certain operational inefficiencies, driven by variability in customer schedules, which we expect to continue for the balance of the year. For the year we expect 6% adjusted revenue growth, reflecting growth over market of 7 points. Turning to Slide 15. Fourth quarter revenues are expected to be up 6% on an adjusted basis at the midpoint. Our outlook now assumes global vehicle production down approximately 2.5% in the fourth quarter, in addition to $1.15 euro and the Chinese RMB at 7 [ph]. We expect the FX and commodity headwinds to operating income and margins this year to continue into the fourth quarter. Along with the operational inefficiencies mentioned earlier, operating income is now expected in the range of $410 million to $430 million. EPS is expected to be in the range of $1.18 to $1.24, down 5% at the midpoint, however, up 4% when you exclude the impact of FX and commodities. Revenues are now expected to be in the range of $14.275 billion to $14.375 billion, up 9% at the midpoint for the full year. That assumes global vehicle production to be down over 1 point versus our previous guidance, with lower expected production in every region. Adjusted EBITDA and operating income are expected to be $2.4 billion and $1.7 billion at the midpoint, respectively, up 12% and 9% versus prior year. Earnings per share are expected in the range of $5.11 to $5.17, up 11% at the midpoint. And operating cash flow is expected to be approximately $1.5 billion, with CapEx now estimated at $800 million. Turning to the next slide. We thought it'd be helpful to provide more detail on the full year outlook. Starting with our prior guidance on the left. Macro changes in the fourth quarter, including declining production volumes and unfavorable FX and commodities, equates to an $0.18 headwind versus our prior guide. Operational inefficiencies driven by variations in customer schedules and higher launch volume, combined with the negative impact from US, China tariffs is a net $0.06 decrease. And Winchester is now included in our outlook for the balance of the year, adding approximately $0.02 of EPS. Slightly lower tax expense and lower share count partially offset, yielding EPS of $5.14 at the midpoint. Looking at the walk in the right, operating income growth translates into $0.92 of earnings, excluding mobility, while the higher tax expense, net of other income, is a net $0.04 headwind. In summary, on a year-over-year basis, we expect to grow earnings 11% in a declining vehicle production environment, while funding $100 million in incremental mobility investment, and we believe our 2018 performance underscores the strength of our portfolio and flexible business model. Turning to the next slide. As we reflect on 2019, our long-term financial strategy remains unchanged. 2018 has demonstrated our ability to deliver on the strategy, despite the more challenging macro environment. And while the formula may vary modestly from year-to-year, revenue and earnings growth have surpassed our initial expectations for the year; demonstrating the value of our portfolio of relevant technologies and their ability to sustain above market growth rates, with another year of strong new business wins. Our flexible and efficient workforce, which is further complemented by our philosophy to be in-region, for-region, minimizes our exposure to cross border trade actions. We will also continue to invest in future growth and we have the opportunity to significantly accelerate the commercialization of new platform solutions, including the next-generation software, compute and vehicle architecture systems, enabling the future of mobility. Despite near term concerns about slowing growth and broader traded macroeconomic policy, we are confident in our ability to continue to outgrow the market. And while it is still early in the planning process, we think it's prudent to plan for global light vehicle production to be a headwind in 2019. Based on current estimates, we expect to see unfavorable year-over-year impact from FX and commodities. Lastly, based on all US-China tariff actions that have been implemented to date, we estimate Aptiv's unmitigated exposure to be roughly $75 million for 2019. This latest estimate includes the unmitigated impact of list three tariffs finalized in September and assumes a 25% tariff rate. We are in the process of identifying mitigation actions to offset these incremental costs, and we'll provide an update on the phasing in net impact at the time we give guidance in January. That said, there are a number of tailwinds as we head into 2019. Volume from record 2018 launches will continue into next year, providing sales and income contribution, as well as improved operational performance as launch volumes stabilize, continued capital deployment and contributions from acquisitions. And as we have previously discussed, we have a long-running relentless focus on our cost structure that has helped position us to continue to grow earnings while investing in Aptiv's future. In summary, our 2019 planning process is under way. And while the macro environment is more challenging, we expect to be able to outgrow the market with our strong portfolio of relevant technologies and deliver another strong year of execution. Turning to Slide 18. We've executed on our capital deployment strategy to create value for shareholders again this year, starting with our CapEx investments to support our strong bookings growth in fast growing product lines. We have also invested $1.2 billion in attractive bolt-on acquisitions, including KUM and Winchester, which expand the geographic and end-market diversification of our Signal and Power Solutions business. And lastly, we expect to return over $500 million to shareholders through share repurchases and dividends in 2018. And as a reminder, since our IPO, we have returned over $6 billion via share repurchases and dividends. By maintaining a consistent approach to capital deployment and aligning the strategy to our framework, we are able to expand our capabilities in key growth areas, while returning excess cash to shareholders. With that, I'd like to hand the call back to Kevin for a few closing remarks.
Kevin Clark:
Thanks, Joe. I'm going to wrap up on Slide 19 before opening it up for Q&A. We delivered another strong quarter with record revenue growth over market and robust new business awards, while at the same time, delivering on our commitments for revenue, operating income and earnings per share. Despite the need to remain prudent in our planning in the current macro environment, we remain very optimistic in our outlook for continued revenue and earnings growth in 2019 and beyond. Through increased vehicle content, excuse me, and market share gains, in addition to the benefits of our more balanced customer, regional and end-market exposure, and our relentless focus on optimizing our cost structure, enabling us to both increase earnings and reinvest for the future. As Joe just reviewed, we remain disciplined and balanced in our capital allocation strategy, investing in both organic and inorganic growth. Our latest acquisitions of KUM and Winchester Interconnect reflect our focus on accretive bolt-on opportunities. And we continue to leverage our strong balance sheet to take advantage of market disconnects to opportunistically buyback shares. In summary, we remain well positioned to continue to execute and outperform in what has been a more dynamic macro environment. So with that, let's open up the call for questions.
Elena Rosman:
Thanks. Albert, we'll take our first question.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from the line of Mr. Chris McNally from Evercore. Your line is now open.
Chris McNally:
Hi, guys.
Kevin Clark:
Hey, good morning.
Joe Massaro:
Good morning, Chris.
Chris McNally:
First question is around - it's around China in Q4. So, you discuss a little bit about your production environment assumption for down 10% [ph] in China in Q4. Could you maybe discuss the actual EBIT impact that you also disclosed? How much of that is from China and how much is from Europe and the continued issues on WLTP? I guess, that's the first question. And then the second is just more qualitative. How are you reacting to this slowdown? We had a similar situation in 2015, where you aggressively had to reduce employees, and then we quickly had stimulus after, and that was sort of some pain for the next two quarters. We could be in a similar situation now, given all the news about a potential stimulus. So maybe just a little bit about how you are reacting from an operational standpoint to prepare for sort of this uncertain environment where we could quickly have a change in course in the beginning of 2019?
Kevin Clark:
Yes. Chris, that's a great question. So, listen, we start with -- Joe and I both highlighted. We're continuously focused on making our cost structure more competitive, so that is an ongoing activity. As we look at slower growth in Europe and China, we're pruning where it's appropriate. However, we're also balancing that with significant growth over market in both regions. So we're trying to balance that with incremental launches the balance of this year as we head into next year, so that we don't -- so that we ensure that we don't put ourselves in a whipsaw sort of a position. I'll let Joe comment on the numbers.
Joe Massaro:
Yes. Chris, if you look, it depends on what you want to walk off of, but if you want to walk off sort of the implied guide from last quarter, you're probably talking down total volume roughly $185 million, about $130 million of that - $135 million of that's going to be the volume take down. That's split between all regions a little bit more - not evenly but more in China and Europe and in North America obviously. And it flows just given the - it's coming down relatively quickly, call that flowing in 25% to 30%. There's another 50 coming out for FX and commodities. And I think that's probably - as I mentioned in my prepared remarks, we are seeing a fairly significant impact on FX and commodities on things like margin rates. And taking the RMB to 7 obviously, is one of the key drivers there as well. Positively offsetting that on the volume line, you'll have Winchester coming in for round numbers about $50 million of revenue in Q4. So those are the big moving pieces on the volume side.
Chris McNally:
Okay, that's very helpful. So, I think we can kind of make the walk for the margin on Q4, if we were to ex out some of the extreme speed of FX and commodities. Last one from me just on this China stimulus. Can I put you guys on the spot to what you're hearing specifically in terms of the potential, the proposals maybe sort of in the works for some version of a repeat of the stimulus that we saw in 2016 and 2017?
Kevin Clark:
Yes. There is a lot of discussion about it. The government has yet to formalize and approve. As you know, it is a country and a government, where, to the extent you see economic slowdown, there is an incentive to drive growth or to do things that drive growth. But as of now, a lot of discussion, nothing has been implemented. So it's something that we're watching -- something we're watching very, very closely.
Chris McNally:
Great. Thanks so much.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Dan Galves from Wolfe Research. Your line is now open.
Dan Galves:
Hey, thanks. Good morning, guys.
Kevin Clark:
Good morning, Dan.
Dan Galves:
So, growth over market has been running kind of in the 9-point range through Q3, and I think you're expecting something relatively similar in Q4. It's well above the 4-point to 6-point growth over market outlook you provided late last year. Maybe talk about was 2018 above your expectations, kind of what were some of the key drivers? And is there any reason that we should expect growth over market can't stay above the 4-point to 6-point range in 2019?
Joe Massaro:
Yes. I - listen, we'll - we're going through our 2019 process. So to give the specifics at that point in time, our planning processes, I think would be a bit premature, right. 2018 has been a strong -- it's been a strong year from a revenue standpoint, Dan; a big piece of that being driven by things like active safety, with 60-plus percent growth, so continued strong growth there. Infotainment mid-teens, kind of in PH the vehicle electrification north of 60%. So those are the real big drivers in addition to what I'd say some underlying volume growth related to launch activity. So from a year-over-year standpoint, we got critical launches that are up roughly 50% year-over-year. So, a significant tailwind as it relates to that. Listen, we're highly confident in our framework for revenue growth over market. I think it's fair to say it's -- we're probably toward the top end of that range relative -- versus the bottom end of that range as we head into 2019. But that's something that will give more visibility and -- visibility to when we comment on 2019 guidance back in early next year.
Dan Galves:
Okay. Great. Thanks. And just one additional, I know plug-in hybrids and EVs got a lot of the press, but we've been hearing from some other suppliers that kind of traditional hybrid there's just -- there's been an inflection point in kind of the size and number of contracts out there for bid this year. Are you guys seeing the same thing and maybe talk a little bit about kind of what's your competitive position in terms of winning high-voltage business in hybrids?
Kevin Clark:
Yeah. We've definitely seen an inflection point as it relates to powertrain electrification. And listen, I think we would tell you it's really in every category, from hybrids to plug-ins to, quite frankly, battery electrics, and battery electrics specifically. Our outlook for mix of battery electrics in 2025 are probably twice what they were a year or two ago. So we've seen a tremendous ramp up in interest from our OE customers. We think we're very well positioned from a vehicle architecture standpoint, both connectors as well as wire harness, and it's been reflected in our bookings in the revenue growth that I talked about. As I mentioned, we're off a relatively small base today, roughly $300 million of revenues, that will grow to north of $1 billion in a couple of years.
Dan Galves:
Okay, great. Thanks a lot.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Joseph Spak from RBC Capital Markets. Your line is now open.
Joseph Spak:
Thanks. Good morning, everyone.
Kevin Clark:
Good morning, Joe.
Joe Massaro:
Hey, Joe.
Joseph Spak:
Just to circle back to China, and as we begin to think a little bit about '19, I recognize you're going to give more color later like, are you seeing anything of slower ramps or push out of programs that would deter your outgrowth? Like, you still outgrew that market high-single digits this quarter. Is that something we should still expect, even if the overall market is lower?
Joe Massaro:
Yeah. Joe, it's Joe. Yes, listen. We are -- it's more vehicle production in China, it really is. I mean, our outgrowth is strong right now. We, call it, eight -- we expect to grow, call it, 8 points in China in Q4 based on what we're seeing. So the outgrowth is fairly significant and continues to be. Now that outgrowth doesn't always -- doesn't shoot straight on a quarterly basis, it can be a little lumpy. So I sort of wouldn't take the 18 points of outgrowth and run with it. But it's not from an Aptiv perspective, we're really seeing it much more on the vehicle production side, particularly things like active safety and high voltage continue to be very strong product lines, and we expect that to continue well into '19.
Kevin Clark:
Yeah. Joe, it's Kevin. So, we -- I mean, just a little bit color on vehicle production. So we really didn't -- we saw schedules change, schedules, underlying vehicle production, so not penetration rates, really the last week of the third quarter. And it was relatively significant over a short period of time. And that's continued into October and it's -- a significant portion of it is in the China market, but in reality, we're seeing it in Europe and North America as well. So, that's why -- that's what our guidance for the fourth quarter reflects.
Joseph Spak:
Okay. Thank you. And then just on the free cash flow guidance slowed $150 million. I know you noted working capital -- some higher working capital to support the growth, you raised the CapEx. So just wondering, Joe, if you could dive a little bit deeper into those two? Like, specifically within working capital, is it really -- is it inventory, are you seeing anything on payments getting pushed and then also just why the higher CapEx, I guess, so late in the year that you're seeing to support that growth?
Joe Massaro:
Yeah. Joe, on the working capital side, it's -- there is some inventory that's more in the system, given what we were seeing on our revenue growth. Nothing structural within accounts receivable in terms of payment terms, just more of it at quarter-end than originally expected, again, with the volume. So no structural changes, just more riding the volume. Listen, CapEx, where -- we work hard to spread that number constantly. I'd call this more of a -- a bit of a '19 pull forward particularly to support some of the growth in the ASUX [ph] business. We want to -- we're careful with it obviously. We understand the nature of the business we're in. But just given the growth we're seeing in those product lines, we want to be ready for it, and this is one where we're going to be, I think, on the front end of making some of those investments. So, not a surprise or a problem, but just really looking across that business and making sure we're ready to go.
Joseph Spak:
Okay, thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of David Leiker from Baird. Your line is now open.
Joe Vruwink:
Hi, good morning. This is Joe Vruwink for David.
Kevin Clark:
Hey, Joe.
Joe Vruwink:
I just want to follow-up on the China questions, and this is more thinking about Aptiv back in 2015. So, I think it's fair that you guys called the market better than most in 2015. But when stimulus happened, it ended up kind of hand-strapping you or bottlenecking you from a margin standpoint. And I'm thinking if the stimulus this time around is successful, are you going to have trouble rehiring people, or do you feel like if China is maybe flat in Q4 and Q1 relative to down double-digits, a lot of that volume is going to flow through at very high incremental margin?
Kevin Clark:
Yeah, Joe. The question was asked earlier. We've tried to be very balanced as it relates to what we do from a near-term cost reduction action in China. We have significant growth in areas like active safety, electrification, infotainment, our connector business, as well as within EVR. So we've tried to be balanced. Having said that, we're not waiting for government incentives to drive growth. So, we're very focused on managing the cost structure, doing it in a prudent way, doing it in a way that it doesn't interfere with our current very strong growth over market in each one of our businesses, and making sure that we're not in a position where we need to respond aggressively one way or another if stimulus comes into play or it doesn't.
Joe Massaro:
Yeah. And Joe, I -- and I'm not clear with your words. But I -- we dealt with that impact in a single quarter as well, right, in Q4 '15. That wasn't something that impaired margins long term. You're absolutely right, we did have to hire back, and there's some inefficiencies when you hire fast, but that was contained within a quarter as well. So these are -- these could be somewhat episodic and certainly not long-term challenges, one way or the other. And to Kevin's point, we're working hard. Lessons learned a little bit from last time, so trying to stay balanced, and again with the -- with a, call it, 18% growth above market. For us, anyway, it's more about making sure we're satisfying our customers' needs at this point than just necessarily worried about vehicle production.
Joe Vruwink:
And if I can ask one more, the acceleration in active safety growth going from 48% last quarter to 68% this quarter, is that step up a function of new platforms you're launching content on? And so we should almost think about this elevated base continuing for three more quarters?
Kevin Clark:
Yeah. Listen, I think Joe made the comment earlier. I wouldn't look quarter-to-quarter from a growth rate standpoint. I mean, we've been running pretty consistently over the last couple of years at roughly 60% growth in that product line. And I think over the last couple of years, we've gone from five customers to -- I believe, we have roughly 18 customers today. So it's expansion of our customer base, its further penetration within those customers, with significant opportunity to go. And we think we're going to continue to have very, very strong growth as we bring on the bookings from the last couple of years, including some of the Level 2 plus, Level 3 minus programs that we've won over the last, call it, 12 months or so.
Joe Vruwink:
Great. Thank you very much.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of John Murphy from Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Your line is now open.
John Murphy:
Good morning, guys.
Kevin Clark:
John. How are you?
John Murphy:
Just a first question on the mobility investments. I mean, there's obviously a big step up this year. But I'm just curious as we think about 2019 and beyond, what will happen with that. Is that the kind of thing, where, as revenue comes in, this will be absorbed and you're just kind of calling it out for now, or is there may be a reason that might fade to some degree in the near term?
Joe Massaro:
Yeah. I -- sorry, John. We get a lot of questions on it, so we always just felt it was easier to sort of put it right out there than sort of in constant follow up. And it's -- we're not, we're mindful that it is a big number. You won't see the step up next year that you saw this year certainly. We've talked publicly before, could you see it at the 180 [ph] level next year, that type of step up? Sure. But it's not the same order of magnitude as you saw from '17 to '18. And I think we'll continue to provide transparency on that number again. That is just the spend related to the automated driving and mobility, right. There's no spend in there for active safety development or Level 2. I mean, all of that is within the ASUX segment, where it belongs. So this is really a call out on sort of the greenfield automated driving business. So I would expect us to be talking about that to one -- to want to talk about it, if they have to talk about it for a while, particularly as the commercial engagement start to develop and come through.
John Murphy:
Got it. Okay, that's helpful. And then second on North America, the 18% growth above market, what were the key programs they drove that? I mean, was it -- a lot of that -- was that GM trucks, or is there something else there that really kind of spiked that, it's driving that high number?
Kevin Clark:
Yeah, it was a mix of programs, principally around pickups and SUVs across not only the North American OEs but some launches of some European and Asian OEs in the US market or North American market.
John Murphy:
Okay, that's helpful. Then on the fourth quarter, and this is kind of a micro focus and maybe we can extrapolate off of this. But I mean, when we look at 6% growth above market and we adjust for the FX and commodity headwind, the 6% growth above market is still leading to a small 50 basis point decline in margins. And I know it's an oversimplification, but I'm trying to understand, if we see sort of this mid-single digit growth above market, is it tough for you to maintain margins, right, even when we ex out the headwinds from FX and commodities? And how should we think about sort of the very simplistic maybe formula of, if you hit 5% growth above market, you might be able to maintain margins; 10% above market, you're going to -- in absolute terms, you're going to be able to expand margins? Is there a rough way to think about that?
Joe Massaro:
Yeah. As we talked -- we've talked before about some frameworks there. I think the difference this year is really the FX and commodity impacts significant. Just to correct though, we're -- that 6% growth in Q4, our market assumption is 2.5% down, so the outgrowth is closer to 8.5%. I think, on the decremental margin, you take out volume at 25% to 30% is the way to think about it. From a guide perspective, FX and commodities in Q4 is costing us a little over $10 million of OI. So again, stepping up to the RMB7 is meaningful. We've got about five or so of tariffs in there. The tariff impact that's going to come in Q4 and then the rest we talked about it in the fourth -- in the second quarter call about having about $40 million of operating inefficiencies in the back half, $20 million and $20 million. For Q4, that's -- we're stepping that up by about $50 million, so $35 million of inefficiencies, and that's our forecast. What we're seeing, and I think you've heard others talk about it, the volume shifts in customers are fairly choppy, sporadic. We're seeing a plant close here for a week or a plant forecasted to close for two weeks in November. And that's just on a short term, it's just harder to adjust the cost structure for that. So you just don't run as well as you'd want to run in times like that. So, we've increased sort of our outlook for those inefficiencies by about $50 million in the fourth quarter.
John Murphy:
Got it. Okay, that's incredibly helpful. And then just lastly on ROS. I mean, you're saying that there are headwinds in the near term. That's really just a question of timing. I mean, the bulk of that then is going to be reworked back up to the -- your automaker customers. Is that correct, or is that…
Joe Massaro:
Yeah. Copper -- yeah, the model hasn't changed for us, on mostly copper at this point. I mean, our steel and aluminum buy is down less than $10 million a year. So it's all about copper, and it's just a little bit of catch-up on the pass-throughs and then it's FX primarily. The RMB is not insignificant for us. When it resets, we pick up. In a quarter where it resets, we obviously pick up the balance sheet remeasurement as well, or assuming we do when we forecast the run rate for a currency like that.
John Murphy:
Right. But the copper doesn't catch-up soon in the next couple of quarters, right? I mean…
Joe Massaro:
Yeah. Catch-up -- yeah, sorry, copper usually catches up in 12 to 15 weeks.
John Murphy:
Yeah. Just wanted to make sure. Cool. Thank you very much.
Joe Massaro:
Yeah.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of the David Tamberrino from Goldman Sachs. Your line is now open.
David Tamberrino:
Great. Good morning, guys.
Kevin Clark:
Good morning, David.
Joe Massaro:
Good morning, David.
David Tamberrino:
Further into your mobility spend, I think it's been a little bit of time since maybe we got an update on your CSLP. I believe that was supposed to be production-ready for 2019. How are you tracking for that and how is the commercial receptivity potential to see bookings --
Kevin Clark:
Yeah. Continue to remain on track. Having a number of discussions with a number of OEs, and hopefully be in a -- hope to be in a position to announce something relatively soon.
David Tamberrino:
But on the product itself, is it production-ready for 2019?
Kevin Clark:
Yeah, it would be production-ready for late 2019. Yeah.
David Tamberrino:
Okay. And then on the active safety booking space. I think, we're seeing it step down a little bit sequentially from about $1 billion won [ph] in 2Q to only about $500 million in 3Q. Anything to read into that? Is there…
Kevin Clark:
No. David, yeah. Listen, we'll -- we're very confident we'll book well over $3 billion of active safety bookings this year and that compares to roughly $3.7 billion last year. So, no, there's no trend there quarter-to-quarter.
David Tamberrino:
Okay. And then lastly for me, with the close of Winchester, I believe that communication was just going to be a platform for you to really build off of. Is there a backlog or a good funnel of smaller connector businesses outside of the automotive space that you've kind of been targeted and you could see some pretty good traction and some acquisitions closing in '19, or is it more got to come underneath the Aptiv business and then you'll start to see what's out there, what can we add to this?
Joe Massaro:
No, no. It's -- we're off and running on that, David. We actually closed -- they closed on a very small deal actually between our sign and close. And we see potential for certainly for '19 to see a number of smaller deals like that. They brought with them a very robust funnel. And as we've talked about, there were other ones that we would have liked to have done but really had no place to plug them into within broader Aptiv without the platform. So, I'd expect '19 to be very active on that front.
David Tamberrino:
Okay. And that $0.02 per quarter's money good for adding to your, call it, EPS next year with the closure, or is there any…
Kevin Clark:
Yeah. Listen, we've talked -- we initially talked about Winchester and we'll come out with 2019 guidance and break that out in January. We initially talked about Winchester being just little more neutral, because we do have to make some investments there to make a sort of the platform that we need. So we'll come out with that in January, but just as we plugged it into the fourth quarter obviously, adding $0.02 for the quarter.
David Tamberrino:
Okay. Thank you very much, gentlemen.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Rich Kwas from Wells Fargo. Your line is now open.
Rich Kwas:
Hi. Good morning, all.
Kevin Clark:
Hey, Rich.
Rich Kwas:
Just a couple from me. Just on the 10% for China, that includes commercial as well? Is that both commercial and like mind on the production?
Kevin Clark:
Yeah. That's everything for us, we put everything into our numbers.
Rich Kwas:
And my recollection is that your schedule is not using third party, right, for the current quarter?
Kevin Clark:
Yeah. At this point, it schedules, yeah.
Rich Kwas:
Good. Okay, good. And then just on putting a finer point on the 2019 considerations. On the global production, with the arrow down, is that actual down global production year-over-year or is that down versus where kind of industry expectations are, which is -- has a little bit of growth factor there?
Kevin Clark:
Yeah. From a planning standpoint, our outlook now would be flat to down as you look at 2019 vehicle production. That's our assumption from a planning standpoint. That's our view of the market as we sit here today.
Rich Kwas:
Okay. And then real quick, just on Signal and Power at $300 million, is that -- as we think about '19 from a margin standpoint, should that start to be contributory in terms of relative to the overall?
Elena Rosman:
High voltage…
Kevin Clark:
High voltage of $300 million, sorry?
Rich Kwas:
Yeah, high voltage. Sorry, sorry.
Kevin Clark:
Yeah, no problem. Yeah. Now listen, that business is running at or slightly above segment margins now that -- you're right, Rich. We typically have said that a product line for us breaks even at $350 million and hit segment margins at $750 million to $1 billion. That business for us was actually basically a segment margin out of the gates, because it's just more of what we do, it's the same plant, the same people building higher voltage, higher value add parts for high voltage systems versus low voltage. So that's been contributing in this year, and will continue to grow.
Rich Kwas:
Okay, great. Thanks. I'll pass it on.
Kevin Clark:
Thanks.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Itay Michaeli from Citi. Your line is now open.
Itay Michaeli:
Great, thank you. Good morning, everybody.
Kevin Clark:
Good morning, Itay.
Itay Michaeli:
Just a first question, I apologize if I missed this, but just hoping we talk a little about launch costs this year and really more into next year on launch activity. Just update, Kevin, your thoughts from the Q2 call, and really just getting incremental margins broadly as we think about '19.
Kevin Clark:
Yeah. Listen, I'll let Joe walk you through the numbers. I mean, launch activity this year, critical launch activity were up 50% year-on-year. So, it's been a significant launch year, especially in the Signal and Power Solutions business. As we head into the next year, we have an increase, but it isn't close to that sort of a year-over-year increase. So I think you have some stability from a launch standpoint. I'll let Joe walk you through the numbers.
Joe Massaro:
Yeah. Itay, I think, as we think through the inefficiencies we're calling out, it's hard to know exactly where they come from, right, the plants. We get some shutdowns, we get some temporary holds. At the same time, we're launching. So I sort of think of those inefficiencies, including the incremental launch costs that we're seeing, and obviously it's -- with more going on in the plant, it's just harder to offset in a given quarter. But to really reinforce Kevin's point, particularly -- because mostly inefficiencies are in Signal and Power Solutions at this point. If you compare -- if you just baseline 2016 critical launches, so that's programs over $50 million of revenue is the way to think about them. '18 and '19, we're going to be up 250% off the '16 baseline in Signal and Power Solutions in both '18 and '19. So to Kevin's point, it stabilizes in '19 but it stabilizes at a very high level. And we'll make improvements in '19, certainly in the back half of '19 on some of these inefficiencies as the plants get accustomed to running at those volumes. But it's -- the increase has been very significant and it's really what you see driving that business with 7 plus points of growth over market for a year. And that's obviously, a very large business. We're growing a big business at mid- to high-single digits in a given quarter. So, there's a lot of activity. The volume activity is really significant at this point.
Itay Michaeli:
Appreciate the detail there. And then just secondly, going back to mobility, just two questions there. First, any update on the Vegas development and the timeline to remove the driver? And secondly, is Aptiv involved with the recent Volkswagen-Mobileye mobility-as-a-service announcement that's happening in Israel?
Kevin Clark:
Yeah. So I'll start on Las Vegas and then move in to your second piece. So, Vegas, we're running about 1,000 rides per week. We're at about 1 million miles. We have a route point-to-point that includes three locations, and we're expanding that. So that's going extremely well. We're collecting revenues. So that's very much a positive. In terms of getting the driver out of the vehicle, that's late 2019, early 2020, is our current time frame from pulling the driver out of those vehicles. So on our schedule, as it relates to the VW-Mobileye announcement, I guess, we have a non-exclusive relationship with them as it relates to CSLP. Since being acquired by Intel, they've been developing their own platform as well. So that's a separate program that they're doing with VW in Israel.
Itay Michaeli:
That's very helpful. Thanks so much.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Brian Johnson from Barclays. Your line is now open.
Brian Johnson:
Good morning.
Kevin Clark:
Hey, Brian.
Brian Johnson:
Sorry for coming back -- yes. Sorry to keep coming back to China. Two things. One, as we think about your exposure, how exposed are you to the lower end of the local OEMs? The sub - engines in China?
Kevin Clark:
So, -- yeah. So -- I don't know, 75% of our revenues in China are with the multinational JVs, 25% local, and 95% of the revenues are with the Top 10.
Brian Johnson:
Okay. So is the way to interpret your growth over market in China in 4Q is, even though the market is down, even though your platforms are erratic, your weighted kind of customer production isn't quite as bad as it could be, just given where the weakness is?
Kevin Clark:
Yeah. I guess, in theory, that's the case. I think, the other pieces is you're -- we're seeing significant ramp up in growth and things like active safety for that market, which is driving strong outgrowth versus market, similar with infotainment and user experience.
Brian Johnson:
Second, do you have exposure, either in production or in backlog, to the battery electric vehicle, the NAV market in China? And with that up about 50% last quarter, can you have any sort of meaningful offset there?
Kevin Clark:
Yeah. So we do. I don't have an exact [indiscernible] in terms of a meaningful offset. I think our growth relative to market somewhat speaks for itself and that's included in the numbers that Joe walked you through.
Brian Johnson:
Third, you talked about the tariff impact. Could you just recap the number that could be a pressure for 2019? What steps you could take to mitigate that in -- either in terms of moving production into NAFTA, or discussing things with customers?
Joe Massaro:
Yeah. So, Brian, it's Joe. So, post list 3, that late September list, what I'll call unmitigated exposure is $75 million. So, it bumped up significantly from us -- for us on list 3. List 3 captured couple of -- mostly in the connection systems business, a couple of products that we manufacture globally in one location or the other and ship, and that was a decision we made, that was a capital deployment decision at the time, we could build global capacity in one place and build for the world that we did. So, mitigation activity, it's really come in a couple of ways. One, it's moving production, and that obviously is going to take a little bit of time. We need to do that with help from the customers as, obviously, validation and such that needs to take place. Pushing the costs, either up or down in the supply chain, to customers or to suppliers is another lever we have. And then we are spending some time, particularly with the Chinese government on, at least, the products that are made there globally, if there's some way to offset those tariff costs, working with them as a means of keeping the jobs in China. So we're, I would say, at this point, turning over all rocks. We'll clearly mitigate some of that exposure in '19. At this point, just given where we are in the planning process and work under mitigation, I can't give you the exact number that will mitigate, so that's why we went with the total worst cases for '19 to $75 million. But I would expect some of that to be mitigated during -- either before, but more likely during the course of 2019.
Kevin Clark:
Yeah. Brian, I would tell you, I think this is one where the -- as an industry, the industry is focused on the incremental costs and recognizes that that's not a good thing for OEs, for -- and customers' OEs or supply base. I would say there's a fairly active effort between the suppliers and the OEs to evaluate supply chain, evaluate manufacturing alternatives to reduce the overall impact. But to Joe's point, I think the pressing point is just revalidation of new facilities, and that's just a matter of resources. But it does have everybody's focus, and the North American OEs are very, very focused on it, and actually doing a very good job working with the supply base.
Brian Johnson:
Okay, thanks.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Maynard Um from Macquarie. Your line is now open.
Maynard Um:
Thank you.
Kevin Clark:
Hi, Maynard.
Maynard Um:
I just have one question regarding your diversification strategy. And I'm just wondering if the pullback in market valuations opens up the opportunity for you and whether you think this could help accelerate your strategy. Just wondering if you have any color around the environment and how that changes, or doesn't change your strategy.
Kevin Clark:
Are you talking about the M&A environment or…
Maynard Um:
The M&A environment.
Kevin Clark:
Listen, I mean, it's -- Joe should come in detail. Very, very focused especially in and around the engineered components space from an M&A standpoint to diversify revenues. As Joe mentioned, we had an outstanding asset in Winchester and a great management team with a great platform to do some of the transactions that, from a size standpoint, historically, we're unable to do. So, we're excited about it. Joe, you can.
Joe Massaro:
Yeah. As I mentioned earlier, Maynard, the funnel is strong. I think a little bit of -- and this is going to be a case, particularly as you guys know in the M&A world, a little bit of success begets success, right. So, a year ago, we weren't known as an acquirer of assets in the non-auto connector side. Following Winchester, we're -- probably we are, and we've got a knowledgeable management team and a platform now. So, just more opportunities actually open up once you've done something like Winchester. And like I said, we had a funnel, they had a funnel, and you combine those. And we're -- we do think there's an opportunity certainly to achieve our goal of 25% by '25. And to the extent we can beat that by making intelligent deals, we just won't buy something to beat it. But in terms of finding assets that we like and can accelerate that, we'll certainly will.
Kevin Clark:
And Maynard, it's -- one thing is important to note. We have a very concerted effort. It takes a little bit longer to execute on, but a very concerted effort of taking our existing product portfolio and expanding into adjacent markets like commercial vehicle. It's very analogous where they weren't -- there was not quite as much focus historically as what we have today. So we have a dedicated sales team building a dedicated engineering team to penetrate markets like commercial vehicle.
Maynard Um:
Great, thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Mr. Steven Fox from Cross Research. Your line is now open.
Steven Fox:
Thanks. Good morning. Two quick questions from me. Not to beat a dead horse on the margins, but if I go back to sort of the spin-out, you talked about how, as these programs mature, there's some incremental margins to be had. So I'm kind of curious how much you're factoring in a possible double whammy as production is lower, but it's tied to some of your newer programs. And then secondly, I appreciate the color on Porsche with the new win there. I was wondering if you could maybe give us a little further detail on why you were able to win that business from a technology standpoint. Thanks.
Joe Massaro:
Sure. Why don't I take the first. This is Joe, I'll take the first part and then Kevin can talk about Porsche. Listen, I think, for us, the margin expansion at the product line level is really going to come from the outgrowth, right. So as long as we continue to grow these product lines with that sort of 4% to 6% above market at the rates you're seeing, very comfortable in terms of earnings growth. Again, I probably sound like a broken record a bit, I would just caution folks on the margin rate expansion gets significantly impacted by FX and commodities. So if you look at -- just by way of example, if you look at either Q3 or Q4 year-over-year, the margin rate expansion is actually negatively impacted by 70 basis points in each quarter, which is just a lot. And certainly when we talked about profit growth and expanding margin rate last September, obviously, didn't have the knowledge of the coming moves in FX rates. So I think the profit growth equation continues to hold it at these revenue growth levels. The margin rate itself is going to be offset a bit by the FX and commodity moves to the extent they continue. So that would be my only sort of caveat on that. But again, the profit growth, we feel very comfortable with as these product lines grow.
Kevin Clark:
As it relates to the first part of your program, we've won roughly 10 central compute programs over the last couple of years. And why, we think, we've been so successful is really is bringing the full strength of Aptiv. And you've heard us talk about the brain and nervous system, and leveraging the -- our capabilities in software, as well as leveraging our capabilities in hardware, whether it's signal distribution or compute power, bringing those -- bringing both of those capabilities to play. It's a big differentiator from a capability standpoint relative to the rest of our competitors, and it's translated into significant wins on the central compute side. And quite frankly, I think it also translates into significant wins on the active safety side, certainly the advanced active safety solutions, as well as some of the advanced infotainment awards we've had.
Steven Fox:
Great. Thank you so much.
Elena Rosman:
So, Kevin, that concludes our Q&A. If you would you like to just have any closing remarks.
Kevin Clark:
All right. Well, listen, thank you, everybody, for your time. We really appreciate it. Have a good day.
Elena Rosman:
All right. Thank you.
Operator:
This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.
Executives:
Elena Rosman - Vice President of Investor Relations Kevin Clark - President and Chief Executive Officer Joe Massaro - Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Analysts:
Brian Johnson - Barclays Chris McNally - Evercore ISI Joseph Spak - RBC Capital Markets David Leiker - Baird John Murphy - Bank of America Merrill Lynch David Tamberrino - Goldman Sachs Emmanuel Rosner - Guggenheim Rich Kwas - Wells Fargo Steven Fox - Cross Research Colin Langan - UBS
Operator:
Good morning. My name is Crystal, and I will be your conference facilitator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Aptiv Q2 2018 Earnings Conference Call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. And after the speakers’ remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] I would now like to turn the call over to Elena Rosman, Aptiv’s Vice President of Investor Relations. Elena, you may begin your conference.
Elena Rosman:
Thank you, Crystal. Good morning, and thank you to everyone for joining Aptiv’s second quarter 2018 earnings conference call. To follow along with today’s presentation, our slides can be found at ir.aptiv.com. And consistent with prior calls, today’s review of our actual and forecasted financials exclude restructuring and other special items and will address the continuing operations of Aptiv. The reconciliation between GAAP and non-GAAP measures is included at the back of the presentation and the earnings press release. Please see slide two for a disclosure on forward-looking statements, which reflects Aptiv’s current view of future financial performance, which may be materially different from our actual performance for reasons that we sight in our Form 10-K and other SEC filings. Joining us today will be Kevin Clark, Aptiv’s President and CEO; and Joe Massaro, CFO and Senior Vice President. Kevin will provide a strategic update on the business and then Joe will cover the financial results on our outlook for 2018 in more detail. With that, I would like to turn the call over to Kevin Clark.
Kevin Clark:
Thank you, Elena, and good morning, everyone. Thanks for joining us today. I’m going to be in by proving an overview of the second quarter and highlighting the key new customer awards in recent developments across the business. Joe will then take you through our detailed financial results for the quarter, as well as our outlook for the balance of the year. Our strong second quarter performance reflects the continued momentum resulting from the execution of our strategy. We delivered record second quarter revenue growth as well as recording operating income, EPS and free cash flow. Revenue was up 12%, that’s nine points over market. Operating income increased 19% to 474 million and margins expanded 30 basis points to 12.9%. Earnings per share total of $1.40, that’s up 24% and free cash flow increased 34% to 360 million. New business awards totaled over 6 billion, bringing the year-to-date total to a record 11 billion, supporting our outlook for revenue growth across the portfolio. In addition to delivering strong financial results during the quarter, we strengthened our product portfolio with two acquisitions. First, we closed on KUM, are both on to our engineered components business, which enhances our competitive position in Asia and stuck in. We reached an agreement to acquire Winchester, a leading provider of custom engineered interconnect solutions for a broad range of harsh environment applications. Both transactions increased our end market diversification and provide solid platforms for further adjacent market expansion, which we'll cover in more detail shortly. In summary, our strong second quarter performance validates the robustness of our strategy and our business model. On slide four, you can see our portfolio of advanced technologies aligned to the safe interconnected mega trends are translating into customer awards. As I just mentioned, bookings totaled over 6 billion in the second quarter, bringing the first half total to over 11 billion. The record bookings are largely the result of our leadership position in several advanced technologies. Beginning with Active Safety with 7 billion of customer awards since 2016. Translating into 1 billion of ADAS revenues in 2018, reflecting over 60% of revenue growth this year and very strong double-digit growth over the next several years. We’ve experienced a substantial uptick in Level 2 plus awards from our traditional OEM customers, which I'll discuss in some more detail shortly. This acceleration of Level 2 plus commercial activity dovetails nicely with our discussions regarding Level 4 and Level 5 automated driving, which are principally with the players serving the mobility market, but also includes select OEMs. Moving to infotainment and user experience, bookings have totaled 6 billion since 2016, giving us confidence with the strong revenue growth in this product line will continue beyond the end of the decade. Turning to signal power solutions, our engineered components business has booked 12 billion of new customer awards since 2016, including 1 billion of high voltage connectors, bringing customer awards for high voltage electrification to 2.5 billion over the last two years. Our first half pace with new business bookings puts us on a clear path to finish the year above 2017 to a record 19 billion. And gives us confidence in our outlook for continued strong revenue growth. Turning to segment highlights and starting with advanced safety and user experience on slide five. We’ve experienced 10 consecutive quarters of strong double-digit growth. Second quarter revenues increased 23%, that’s more than 20 points above market driven by 48% and 24% growth in the Active Safety and the infotainment in user product lines respectively. Based on our strong first half revenue growth, we now expect to approximately 20% segment growth in 2018. As already mentioned, Active Safety revenues will total over 1 billion and increase overt 60% in infotainment and user experience revenues will reach 2 billion up over 15%. Our expertise in both software development and vehicle architecture including central compute platforms enables us to often uniquely optimized advanced safety and infotainment user experience solutions, which have driven several of our recent new business wins. The democratization of Active Safety is accelerating. We’re awarded three Level 2+ ADAS Systems in Q2 with SGM, SCA and GAC. At the same time, the number of Level 3 through Level 5 commercial opportunities are increasing. The right side of the slide highlights our recent new business awards from Great Wall Motors. Our China team secured a conquest win for the Integrated Cockpit Controllers on the next-generation Haval and WEY SUVs which will power multiple cockpit dashboards, including the instrument panel, heads-up display and the center stack. This award represents our latest generation of Integrated Cockpit Controllers, operating on a single controller solution, ensuring both the functional safety and network security required to deliver today’s dynamic digital user experience. Turning to slide six. The primary factors driving the democratization of Active Safety are consumer preference and willingness to pay. Consumers are demanding safer vehicles and OEMs are responding, driving increased penetration of Active Safety systems across their full vehicle line-ups from the Premium to the Value segments. Center to our success booking ADAS programs has been our ability to provide OEMs with scalable, highly reliable systems that also lower total system cost. By centralizing the function and feature set into a multi-domain controller, we can cost effectively scale the computer requirements up or down to match the specified level of Active Safety functionality. And by optimizing center configurations that can scale across platforms, we can significantly lower the mass and cost required to support more advanced ADAS features. As a result, our OEM customers can deploy these systems quickly and at competitive price levels. As OEMs look to leverage their investment development for Level 3 and above ADAS systems, the design of our multi-domain controllers and the optimized configuration of our sensors supports fail-safe operational solutions in a more economically viable way. In short, our approach to advanced ADAS solutions is unique in the industry and is helping us winning the marketplace, including with the four major OEMs features on the left side of the slide, while positioning us to be even more competitive in the future. We now expect Active Safety revenues to increase from $1 billion in 2018 to well over $2 billion in 2022, representing a continued very strong double-digit growth rate. Turning to slide seven. The advanced work we’re doing today on Level 1 and Level 2 ADAS systems for our traditional OEM customers is being leveraged in the Level 3 through Level 5 automated driving solutions. A current application of this technology is on our Level 4 commercial deployment in Las Vegas. We’ve given over 3,500 automated rides utilizing the Lyft network. Roughly 100 rides per day, earning a near perfect rider rating of 4.96 out of 5. The vehicles in the Lyft network are running over a span of 20 hours per day and are serving 20 pick-up and drop-off locations today, increasing to 30 by year-end. As our Las Vegas fleet scales, we’re leveraging our data services platform to monitor, diagnose and update our automated driving software to dramatically improve development cycles time. Further, the data we’re collecting about traffic flows and pick-up and drop-off frequency is proving to be of substantial interest to potential mobility customers, providing additional opportunities for data monetization. In addition, we’re also seeing significant increase in connected services from traditional commercial fleet operators as they work to improve fleet utilization and meet more stringent regulatory targets. We view our vehicle deployments in Las Vegas as opportunities to learn how to best develop, how to operationalize and commercialize our automated driving technology. Consistent with that objectives we’re partnering with Hertz to provide management services for our fleet of roughly 75 autonomous vehicles in Las Vegas. The partnerships with Lyft and Hertz are an important first step on our path to commercialize automated mobility on-demand in a thoughtful, prudent and safe manner with multiple mobility partners across the globe. Tuning to slide eight. Our Signal & Power Solutions segment is focused on next-generation vehicle architecture, requiring high-speed data and high-power electrical distribution to enable the advanced technologies that will shape the future of mobility. The business continues to benefit from the need for more scalable and optimize vehicle architecture to enable advanced vehicle features and functionality which is reflected in customer awards. Our current pace of new business bookings in this segment translates in the solid mid-single-digit revenue growth over the next several years which is what we experienced in the second quarter, 8% revenue growth, five points over market driven by 63% growth in high voltage revenues and a 12% increase in engineered components revenues result the strong growth in both the automotive and industrial end markets. Revenue growth in this segment benefited from new platform launches in North America, which more than offset the continued weakness in passenger car volumes. Underscoring our industry leading position in this segment, we are recently awarded the Electrical Architecture on a new North American truck and SUV program, a high-volume conquest win. Turning to slide nine. The acquisition of Winchester Interconnect takes all the right boxes. It perfectly positions us to accelerate the end market diversification strategy, we articulated in 2017. Winchester provides advanced interconnect solutions for some of the most demanding harsh environment applications. The company’s revenues are diversified around industrial applications serving the aerospace and industrial end markets as well as products for data infrastructure and medical. Consistent across each of these markets is a high cost of product failure and the need for products to beat the challenging temperature, vibration and other design specifications which in many ways are transferrable to Aptiv’s expertise. Joe will discuss the integration plan for Winchester shortly, but we’re confident their talented management team wants to enhance our ability to accelerate the growth of our $1.5 billion of current adjacent market revenues. As we continue to execute our diversification strategy with the goals improving our overall through cycle operating performance, Winchester brings us closer to our target of 25% non-owned revenues by 2025, providing a business platform from which to expand our product portfolio and geographic reach. With that, I’ll hand the call over to Joe to take us through the second quarter results and review our increased guidance for 2018.
Joe Massaro:
Great. Thanks, Kevin, and good morning, everyone. Starting with a recap of the second quarter financials on slide 10. Results exceeded the guidance we provided back in May with revenue of $3.7 billion, up 12% or nine points over vehicle production, reflecting a continued ramp of new program launches in both our segments. EBITDA and operating income increased 19% driven by higher sales volume and operational performance, and operating margins were 12.9%, up 30 basis points. Earnings per share of $1.40 was up 24% despite the expected higher tax rate on a year-over-year basis. Importantly, operating income earnings continue to grow double-digits while investing in future growth. Lastly operating cash flow was $566 million up 37% driven by higher earnings and favorable working capital. Turning to slide 11, sales of $3.7 billion were approximately a $135 million higher than expected, largely driven by stronger volumes in both segments despite some variations in customer schedules in the quarter. FX in commodities were also a positive. From a regional perspective North America sale were up 15% and benefited from a number of new programs launches in advanced safety and user experience and signal and power solutions, more than offsetting continued passenger car production declines. Europe sales were up 9%, also better than expected driven by the ramp up of new program launches despite slightly slower production schedules and China sales were up 11% as we continue to see strong revenue growth and expect to grow 8 to 10 points over market for the year. Slide 12 walks our operating income performance year-over-year. Operating income of $474 million was up 19% while margins expanded 30 basis points to 12.9%. Conversion on strong volume growth and operating performance more than offset price downs, which were slightly below 2% for the quarter and the higher mobility investments. FX and commodities were modest benefit in the quarter. Although, as we've discussed in the past, revenue from stronger FX and commodities are dilutive to operating margin rates. Stronger operating performance yielded higher earnings per share in the quarter as shown in the walk on slide 13. Earnings per share were $1.40, up 24% as operating income growth translated into $0.28 of earnings. And all other items were a net $0.01 headwind. Moving to the segments on the next slide. Advanced Safety and User Experience revenues grew 23% in the quarter driven by new launch volumes and higher take rates globally in Active Safety and Infotainment and user experience which grew 48% and 24% respectively. Operating income grew 35% and margins expanded 80 basis points for the impact of mobility investments driven by strong revenue growth and improved performance. Our mobility investments totaled roughly $40 million in the quarter and as a result of the acceleration in commercial activity, we now expect full year mobility spending to be roughly $160 million, a $20 million increase versus our prior outlook. Segment revenue growth is now expected to be approximately 20% for the full year. Turning to Signal and Power Solutions on slide 15. Revenues were up 8% in the quarter, driven by new product launches and increasing high voltage electrification and engineered components volumes. For the year, we expect 6% to 7% revenue growth with strong growth across all product lines. Operating income grew 24% and margins were up 130 basis points in the quarter. Operating margin flow through is being somewhat impacted by operational inefficiencies driven by variations in customer schedules and higher launch volumes. Primarily in North America and Europe, which we've assumed will continue for the balance of the year. Turning to slide 16, we are raising our outlook for 2018. Revenues are now expected to be in the range of $14.35 billion to $14.55 billion with an adjusted growth range of 8% to 9%, up from 6% to 7% previously. As you can see, we are still targeting global vehicle production up 1%, despite movement within the regions and some variations and customer schedules. Our outlook now assumes a $1.16 a euro rate for the remainder of the year, down from $1.18 and $6.80 for the Chinese RMB from our prior outlook of $6.50. Adjusted EBITDA and operating income are expected to be $2.455 billion and $1.805 billion at the midpoint respectively, up 15% and 13%. Earnings per share are expected in the range of $5.30 to $5.40, up from our prior range of $5.20 to $5.40 reflecting a 15% increase year-on-year at the midpoint. And operating cash flow is expected to be approximately $1.6 billion also at mid-teens over 2017 with CapEx unchanged at roughly $750 million. For the third quarter, revenues are expected to be up 10% at the midpoint and production growth of roughly 3.5%. Adjusted operating income is expected to be $420 million at the midpoint, up 7% versus prior year as volume growth is partially offset by the previously mentioned higher mobility investments and operating inefficiencies and FX and commodities revert to a headwind both sequentially and year-over-year, accounting for approximately 50 basis points versus Q3 of 2017. EPS in the range of $1.21 to $1.26, up 5% to 10% and assumes a 15% to 16% tax rate. Looking at the 2018 operating income walk on slide 17. Performance highlights include, continued sales growth across both segments, price downs remaining in line with expectations, a modest benefit year-over-year from favorable FX and commodity pass through. And an operational performance and cost reduction initiatives fund our investments for growth including $100 million increase in mobility investments year-over-year. Turning to slide 18. Our strong balance sheet allows us to execute our strategy for growth and create value for shareholders. You recall, we came into the year with a large cash balance as a result of the dividend from the Delphi Technologies spin-off relatively low net debt and a conservative leverage profile. We’re committed to maintaining our investment grade rating and target a debt to EBITDA ratio of less than two times which is roughly where we expect it to be at the end of the year. This was the result of executing our consistent capital deployment strategy, focused on investing in our businesses both organically and inorganically and opportunistically returning cash to shareholders. Our recent bolt-on acquisitions of KUM and Winchester will be accretive to EBITDA margins and drive growth in our Signal and Power Solutions businesses as they benefit from a more balanced mix of customers, regions and end markets. We’re also funding CapEx to support our strong bookings and fast-growing product line such as active safety, infotainment, and high voltage electrification and for the year we expect to return approximately $450 million to shareholders through share repurchases and dividends. Moving to slide 19 before handing the call back to Kevin I want to spend a moment reflecting on our recent acquisitions align to our strategy. Both KUM and Winchester strengthen our Signal and Power Solutions business where we are global leader in electrical distribution, automotive connectors and cable management fastening systems. KUM with approximately $250 million of revenues annually expands our range of automotive connectors, has an attractive facility footprint and will enhance our growth in the Asia Pacific region. Moving to Winchester. As Kevin mentioned, the portfolio of Precision Engineered Interconnect Solutions creates a platform to further expand in adjacent end markets by adding over $250 million of revenue to our current $1.5 billion in non-automotive revenues. Upon closing, Winchester will operate as an independent business unit in the Signal and Power Solution segment and will continue to go to market under their existing brand name similar to HellermannTyton. By leveraging our expertise to expand into adjacent markets with design requirements for the harshest of environmental conditions we are confident we can achieve our target of 25% non-auto revenues by 2025 significantly improving our through cycle performance with increased diversification. In summary we have an exceptional track record with both on acquisitions to achieve accretive growth in earnings and expect KUM and Winchester to do the same. With that I’d like to hand the call back to Kevin for his closing remarks.
Kevin Clark:
Thanks Joe. Let me wrap up on slide 20 before we open it up for Q&A. we delivered another strong quarter with record revenue growth as well as record operating income earnings per share and free cash flow. As a result, as Joe said, we’re raising our guidance for the second time this year with 89% adjusted revenue growth, 13% operating income growth and 15% earnings per share growth. We continue to make significant progress executing our strategy and optimizing our business model, including increasing revenues faster than underlying vehicle production, through content growth and market share gains as customers increasingly look to Aptiv as their partner of choice as reflected in our bookings performance. Continuously improving our cost structure and increasing our operating efficiencies to both reinvest in the business and to expand margins and grow earnings and cash flow, leveraging our balance sheet for further value creation, investing roughly $1.5 billion in acquisitions in 2017 and 2018 combined, while returning over $1 billion of cash to shareholders through dividends and repurchases. Positioning Aptiv for the future, strengthening our portfolio safe, green and connected advanced technologies to widen our competitive modes, capturing opportunities in new markets and diversifying our business mix to ensure less volatile operating performance through the cycle. With that let’s open the line-up for Q&A.
Elena Rosman:
Thank you. We’ll now take our first question.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from the line of Brian Johnson with Barclays.
Kevin Clark:
Good morning, Brian.
Joe Massaro:
Good morning, Brian.
Brian Johnson:
Good morning. A couple of housekeeping questions then a more strategic one, in terms of housekeeping so couple of things around the guide for 3Q, it looks like and as called out delivery delays brand increasing production delays to reflect in IHS due to the need to push vehicles through the WLTP compliance. So, does your third quarter outlook kind of take not just the IHS numbers but some of the productions schedules emerging or likely to emerge from your customers when you put out that guide?
Kevin Clark:
Yeah, Q3 has got schedules Brian as best as we have them from a customer at this point. Obviously get more to IHS as you get the final couple of months of the year, but at this point, as best we have, and we're tied out to schedules.
Brian Johnson:
Okay. Second sort of housekeeping which will transition more from strategic one. The third quarter operating guide implies, third quarter guide implies an operating margin of 12 to 12.2, a bit lower than many of us had modeled. Could you may be mention, how much of that is mobility, launched cars or other kind of expenses.
Joe Massaro:
Yeah, it probably starts, particularly if you are focused on margin rate. The biggest change is going to be the effects and commodities. So, that as I mentioned in my prepared remarks, that’s about 50 basis point after 12.1 off the midpoint. So, if you adjusted for the FX in commodities including the revised macros we used for Europe - for Euro and RMB, you're up to about 12.6. We've taken the RMB down of 680 had ended Q2, it would have been in the 63s. So, we’ve got a straightening above or below 680 now. So, we’ve got a little bit of catch up on the reval and the core comings as we adjust from sort of where we ended the 63 and changed to 68. So, that on our margin rate perspective that’s effectively zero revenue and the reval coming through on the OI lines, So, it plays a little bit of havoc with the rate. Mobility investment, the additional of 20, that's pretty much spread evenly through the balance of the year, so call that 10 million and then the operating efficiencies I mentioned them. They impacted us a bit in Q2. We’re forecasting them to continue that in part is the higher launch volumes particularly in SPS. But also, as I mentioned, we’ve got things like Meridian that happened in Q2. You've got some other changes and schedules which necessary call downs of volume are, but they are making it much more lumpy within a given quarter and obviously it’s harder to react if you’re running slower for a two or three-week period, it's obviously, harder to react from a car structure perspective. That any type of longer-term change. So, call that another 15 or so in the quarter as well, 15 to 20.
Brian Johnson:
Okay, which give ...
Joe Massaro:
The rate delta and we have this challenge going the other way in the first quarter. The rate challenge is really of the FX and commodities input.
Q - Brian Johnson:
Okay, so I know this sort of gets into your question on the [indiscernible] call, management described as was in their Investor Day. The cash flow characteristics of taking on Active Safety business, of course recognizing they are different scale than you. But, described a couple of years of cash and expenses for application engineering, some of it gets reimbursed towards the tail end of the project then of course launches. So, with your strong booking pace and with the strong launch activity. How should we be thinking about the sort of headwind in a good way to the margins in Active Safety and may be less or so infotainment, as you go through this growth period?
Kevin Clark:
Maybe, I'll start Brian. So, as you know, last year we’ve booked about $3.7 billion in the Active Safety business. This year, today just under $2 billion and on track to do well over $3 billion. As we’ve talked about in the past, typically in our product range when you launch a new program or a new technology, when you sized the revenue from zero to 300, you’re investing effectively in that technology and then from 300 on, you’re actually positive from an operating margin standpoint. And add $1 billion in run rate revenues today and our Active Safety business is at the ASUX operating margin range, X the investment in mobility. So, for us, it's strong, very profitable business.
Brian Johnson:
Okay. So, if you are scaled, then the increased bookings don’t lead to a margin headwind from development expense.
A - Kevin Clark:
Well, I mean it creates development expense and probably creates some margin headwind, but the incremental volume more than offsets that, that's how I would describe. Listen, we’ve gone from five Active Safety customers back a couple of years to we’re heading pretty closed to 20. So, there is launch activity and development activity affiliated with both of those. But at $1 billion of run rate revenues, we’re solidly in the black from a margin standpoint.
Joe Massaro:
Yeah. We have volume ramping obviously on the previous launches. The mobility investment, obviously that’s focused on the AMoD, Brian. And I think I mentioned in my prepared remarks, if you back that out, the core ASUX business, which includes all of its own development business, the only thing that’s in that mobility number is truly the AMoD investment. Those margins expanded about 80 basis points year-over-year. So, we’re seeing that business perform as we would have expected.
Brian Johnson:
Okay, thanks.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Chris McNally with Evercore.
Kevin Clark:
Good morning, Chris.
Joe Massaro:
Good morning, Chris.
Chris McNally:
Good morning, guys. Yeah, just wanted to think about the operating leverage and we’ve discussed in the prepared remarks for Q3 and second half. But sort of to Brian’s question, as we start to think about 2019, you’ve had such a big jump in obviously everything autonomous, you had a lot of launch activity. Could we start to think about in 2019 that the incremental margins get back to a more normalized operating leverage, typically your kind of 20% or I think your longer-term guidance of 20 basis points to 30 basis points of margin improvement?
Joe Massaro:
Yeah, Chris. We would stay focused on that framework we provided at Investor Day, 20 basis points to 40 basis points of margin expansion while investing in the business. Again, I think -- and you got to watch the FX and commodity, the beginning part of this year has been somewhat volatile, and it disproportionally affects the margin rate itself. But as we look out, our best estimates of FX and commodity rates right now would probably give us a little bit over a 10-basis point headwind on margin rate for the year, which would put us north of 20 basis points of margin expansion even with the increased mobility investment and that’s a framework we’re very focused on maintaining.
Kevin Clark:
Yeah, Chris. It’s Kevin. I would just add one additional point. So, we’ll launch about 1,700 programs this year, of which about 250 we’d consider to be major launch programs. And a lot of that activity is in the SPS business that Joe talked about earlier. And when you look at that on a year-over-year basis, that’s roughly a 70% increase in critical activity. And as Joe mentioned, there were couple of areas from an operational standpoint I think we could have performed a little bit better in Q2 and quite frankly in Q3 and Q4. So, as that launch activity slows, as you head into 2019, we should get the incremental benefit.
Chris McNally:
Okay. That’s perfect. And then just for the second half, because obviously with everything trade FX is going to remain such a focus for short-term performance. Does the sort of the rule of thumb that you have for the renminbi, so $20 million per, I think it’s roughly every 1% or for every $0.06? Does that still holds post this sort of big move that we’ve had over the last three months?
Joe Massaro:
Yeah. Generally, it holds. It flows -- the renminbi flows a little bit higher than the other currencies just because of some of the balance sheet translations over there. So, it may flow close -- we usually say FX flows at 10, we usually say that may flow a little, somewhere between 10% and 15%.
Chris McNally:
Okay. 10% to 15%. And then you said for Q3 specifically 50 basis points which on an overall could be roughly $20 million of EBIT year-over-year?
Joe Massaro:
Total FX and commodity between 15 and 20. And a big part of that is just the renminbi really has moved here since the end of the quarter. So, we’re assuming we sort of take the full 630 to 680, 630 something was the quarter-end to the full 680 at the end of Q3, which is really what’s driving that FX and commodity line and obviously not a lot of revenue associated with that, just really the re-val.
Chris McNally:
Okay, great. Thanks so much, guys.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Joe Spak with RBC Capital Markets.
Joseph Spak:
Good morning, everyone.
Kevin Clark:
Good morning, Joe.
Joe Massaro:
Hey, Joe.
Joseph Spak:
Kevin, just I was wondering if you could spend a minute talking about Level 3, because we have heard from customers it seems like conversations with companies are ramping up, I think in prior quarters you’ve indicated that as well as more interest in that product. But then we see stuff like Audi [ph] sort of eliminating the Level 3 product in the U.S. so I guess I just want to understand where we really stand with Level 3?
Kevin Clark:
That’s a great question. It's very customer dependent, there are OEs who are very focused no developing Level 3 and leveraging Level 3 into Level 4 and Level 5. So, we’re in a lot of those dialogues. There are other OEs, Joe who at least as of now are looking at the incremental cost of Level 3 versus let's say a Level 2 or Level 2 plus solution and seeing more value in the Level 2 plus solution on a kind of cost per benefit standpoint. So, it's a bit bifurcated quite frankly. Those customers who tend to have a - let’s call it a sequential development strategy as it relates to autonomous driving moving from Level 2 to 3 to 4 to 5 are focused on advancing to a Level 3. Those who are coming at two different directions, and Level 0 to a Level 2 plus being ADAS and a group that works on that and a separate group working on Level 4 and 5 seem to be considering skipping that Level 3 step.
Joseph Spak:
Okay. So, the $2 billion Active Safety target that you set out in 2022, can you give us a sense of the breakdown of that between I guess more like Level 2 or then Level 3 plus.
Joe Massaro:
Yes, a lot of that – well that would be ADAS business for us, so we’re – what guidance we have given is 2025 we’ll do about a $1 billion of automated driving revenues roughly $500 million as at be Level 3, $500 million Level 4 and Level 5. The $2 billion of ADAS business is Level 2 plus and Level 0, 1, Level 2 plus, what I’d say most of the growth being in the Level 2 plus over the last year or so.
Joseph Spak:
Okay.
Joe Massaro:
So, Active Safety sells. So, consumers are asking for it as I said in my prepared remarks, we’re seeing OEs really pull for it, we’re seeing a lot of opportunity around the Level 2 and Level 2 plus area. So that will drive most of the growth.
Joseph Spak:
Okay. And then just separately, if your approach or I guess would you consider direct investment in some of your autonomous efforts similar to what we've seen some other players in the industry do?
Joe Massaro:
When you see direct investment in some of autonomous efforts. If would we invest in others or …
Joseph Spak:
No, taking new capital just directly into some of your efforts?
Kevin Clark:
Well, as you’ve heard Joe and I say, we’re about driving shareholder values, so it starts with that. So, how do we best drive shareholder value, if an opportunity like that presented itself and it delivered shareholder value that something that we certainly would do, obviously should do. Having said that, we need to have a good understanding of what the capital – how much capital was – what effectively we’d use it for. I think if you’d ask Joe and myself at this point in time, we feel like we’re spending the right amount of money to do everything we need to do to develop our automated driving technology, both for OEM customers as well as for the AMoD customers and really don’t view there to a gap in what we’re developing or working on as it relates to resources, people or funding. So we really need to understand the situation. But again I – as we have always said, we’re about driving shareholder value.
Joseph Spak:
Okay, thanks a lot, guys.
Kevin Clark:
Thanks.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of David Leiker with Baird.
Kevin Clark:
Good morning, David.
David Leiker:
Hi, good morning everyone. I wanted to talk about the mobility investment that you’re doing. That’s $31 million increase year-over-year, obviously if I am reading that Joe right is that correct?
Elena Rosman:
Correct. $40 million of mobility spend in the quarter, increase of $31 million year-over-year.
Joe Massaro:
In the quarter, you’re talking about, yes.
Elena Rosman:
In 2Q.
David Leiker:
Yes. And what line items that flow through, that’s in the cost to goods sold?
Joe Massaro:
Yes, that’s primarily, there is some SG&A obviously oversight and such but a lot of it flow up through, the engineer – our engineering flows up through costs of goods sold.
David Leiker:
And then as we look, that number has been growing for you, what does that look like next year or the following year that total spend?
Joe Massaro:
Yes. So, obviously early days to roll it up. I mean, you won't see the step level change and we say that's a couple of times. You won't say the step level change obviously that you saw to 2017 or 2018. Could you wind up in 2019 at 180, maybe close to 200. Possibly, we're still working really through that. It would really all depend on the opportunities, the increase that we've come out with this quarter and completely related to the opportunities and quite honestly getting close to what I'd almost call commercial pursuits at this point with some of the major always and some of the mobility on demand providers. So, to the extent we see greater opportunities would increase the spend but the step level change that you saw from 2017 to 2018. We certainly would not expect to repeat without a significant known sort of commercial event.
David Leiker:
And then the last item on here, what do you think that timeline looks like to reach profitability for those efforts?
Joe Massaro:
We've talked about having that, that sort of billion dollars of revenue in 2025. Half a billion of that coming from AMR. I think we're on a sort of a growth trajectory, sort of come from 2021 through 2025, and, it'll to some extent mirror our other product lines, where we sort of break even at that $350 million of revenue and would expect to grow from there. There may be some opportunities just given the nature of this revenue, some software sales, some recurring data service fees where we climb profitability a little bit faster than our traditional product lines, obviously. But we really still look at this business is from a revenue perspective evolving from sort of 2021 through 2025.
Kevin Clark:
David, the other thing, I think, and we don't count for it this way, we're careful not to count for this way. But as we develop the technologies related to AD, that's something that we clearly transfer to our active safety programs, principally around perception systems as you can imagine. And I think one of the big reasons we've been able to -- in addition to market growth, but when you look at winning percentages and overall bookings in ADAS, principally around level two, level two plus. The reason we've been so successful, the last year or so, and would expect to continue to be is -- is as a result of those investments that we're making. Now, again, we don't, count it that way. We keep it separate. We make sure that we're focused on how do we drive revenue and profitability in the AD business separately, but there is a benefit there.
David Leiker:
Yeah, those skillsets are an investment there. Definitely driving revenues and other parts of the business.
Kevin Clark:
Right.
David Leiker:
Okay. Great. Thank you.
Kevin Clark:
Thanks.
Joe Massaro:
Thanks.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of John Murphy with Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
John Murphy:
Good morning, guys. Just one other follow-up on that mobility, in mobility investments. And when you think about this over the long run, and then we just kind of went through sort of have these morphs into or supports other parts of the business. When you think about sort of returns in mobility, where do you think they ultimately go? I mean do we turn the corner in 2025 and all of a sudden, the return on invested capital here is much higher than the corporate average. Just curious how you think where this will ultimately land?
Kevin Clark:
Yeah, listen, I think well before 2025 year at or above our return on average return on capital in this business, right? We're not looking to manage fleet that's not the business we're in. So, we're not going to invest significantly in building cars fleets will be owned by others will provide the technology related to those fleet, will provide the software, will provide the perception systems and as you know the more software that goes into those solutions higher the return. So, I think it's well before 2025 John.
John Murphy:
Okay. That's helpful. And then just second sort of staying on the return side. I mean we think about Active Safety as you're talking about Kevin on with slide five. As you democratize this technology, there's a lot of concern in the market, the margins and returns may come down, but if you have the ability to scale and leverage the, sort of the initial technology investment, the returns may actually expand. Just curious think about the democratization how that will work?
Kevin Clark:
Yes. Listen, software you do once, right? And I think definitely in low in systems, you'll see increased costs pressure, it's the nature of the business that we operate in and it's quite frankly what we deal with across all of our products and it’s something that we do a very good job of managing with our customers, with our partners. Having said that, there is real demand going up this chain from a technology standpoint from Level 0 to Level 1 to Level 2 plus I'm confident of Level 3 and so on. And those will continue to be products that consumers are willing to pay for and their advanced technologies which very few people can quite frankly develop and can integrate into vehicles and you’ll see margin benefits.
John Murphy:
Okay. And then also just on diversification into the non-automotive business, I mean getting 25% as a target, as we think about margins and returns there, were those also similarly be higher than corp average as they stand right now?
Kevin Clark:
Yeah, those are - that is - that strategy is pretty straight forward. There are opportunities in places like commercial vehicle where we take our products that we manufactured today. And we sell in the markets that historically we haven’t had is much focus on. We had focus, but not as much focus, so it is a concerted effort to further pursue - to take existing technology, existing products and pursue opportunities in that market, but second is in and around the engineered components space, where the product portfolio is often very, very similar. Now, the go-to-market is very different or can be very different, the approach from a sales standpoint can be very different. And as you know we bought HellermannTyton a few years ago, that’s a business that has operated extremely well. It’s been a great case study for us, it’s grown well over 10% per year with a real strong sales force and as Joe mentioned with respect to Winchester, we think it’s a great asset with a great management team, a great footprint and to the extent we can provide them capabilities maybe leveraging sourcing and things like that. Maybe there are products that we have in our portfolio today that they can add into their portfolio to sell in the industrial and other markets. Now, if we can diversify our revenues be less cyclical in a very low risk way, we think it’s multiple enhancing and it’s returning enhancing.
John Murphy:
Sounds good to me. And just lastly, maybe one odd question right now just given that you just executed sort of the separation spin. As we look at what’s going at auto leave with [indiscernible], I mean you have some great technology that is much higher growth than maybe average particularly in Active Safety and high voltage, would you ever consider sort of another spin of this super high gross stuff just given some of the fanatic valuations have been put on some of this high gross stuff even out in the positive cash flow?
Kevin Clark:
One, I think our high growth has positive cash flow, so I want to make sure and every business is different. So, the [indiscernible] business is a very good business with great technology and I don’t have all the specifics as it relates to their product portfolio and where they’re investing. But we have a great business that’s high growth has positive cash flow significant software capabilities. Again, we Joe and I go back to we entertain whatever creates the most value for shareholders. Now having said that, we think being able to leverage both the hardware and the software capabilities is very unique. And we think that’s one of the reasons we’ve had the win rates, we’ve had on - from a booking standpoint, from an ADAS standpoint or from an infotainment user experience standpoint and we think we’ll have more to talk to you about as it relates to smart vehicle architecture so future solutions for the architecture of the car, so we think there is an incremental benefit of having the two together.
John Murphy:
So, it’s fair to say right now no plans but over the long run if there’s an opportunity to creature of the value would be something to entertain is that correct?
Kevin Clark:
Yeah, right now no plans, yup right now no plans and always, always focused on driving shareholder value.
John Murphy:
Great. Thank you very much.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of David Tamberrino with Goldman Sachs.
Kevin Clark:
Hey David.
Joe Massaro:
Hey David.
David Tamberrino:
Hi. Good morning. How are you doing guys? I wanted to dig in a little bit more in the advanced tech user experience business I think you mentioned a couple of integrated - cockpit controller wins. Wondering how much growth you’re seeing within your business. How much further RFPs are out there from OEMs and what the competitive landscape is for that subset within advanced safety and UEX?
Kevin Clark:
Yeah, I mean we’ve had strong bookings over the last couple of years, the SUX, the infotainment user experience business is growing kind of mid-teens sort of growth rate from a CAGR standpoint. We expect it to continue to do that through the end of the decade. There will be some movement up and down based on programs rolling on and off. There continues to be significant demand for the product. Always are looking for ways to consolidate controllers and increase compute power. We've talked about our integrated Cockpit Controller you saw at CES or CFP which has 40 times the power of our integrated Cockpit Controller or less mass and safety OE cost. So, there is a lot of focus from an OE standpoint how to get leverageable compute power, how to kind a centralize it and how to increase or enhance the software operations of the software on the hardware.
David Tamberrino:
Okay. And from a competitive landscape. I mean how many folks you're seeing out there that are competing against you within that segment in order to achieving better target margins or maybe you're looking at better potential target margin maybe you're looking at maybe some little bit.
Kevin Clark:
Yeah. So yeah, I think given our software and our hardware and our systems integration capabilities, again, we feel like we're the most uniquely positioned to play in this base. We run into more typically our players like -- who we traditionally ran into, who had strong software capabilities. And I think with their more recent transaction with Samsung have some hardware and systems integration capabilities on the infotainment side.
Joe Massaro:
Yeah, and I think Dave on an Active safety, we've talked about it before. To us particularly when you get to the Level 2 and the Level 2 plus systems, we feel that modes expanding. So, there is fewer and fewer folks at least from what we're seeing that are sort of in the room with us at least on some of those initial bids. And I think they’re the ones you'd expect really the Bosch the -- the big global players that could deliver this technology on a certainly on a global platform. And for us that's a pretty good spot for us to be. We compete well against those guys, that's a structured market. And again, we think we just given some of the complexity going on in this technology that modes widening as to who can really do that.
David Tamberrino:
Understood. And then maybe just switching gears and thinking about mobility in services your update 3500 plus rides. I think the last time it was maybe like 400 plus rides with 99% fully autonomous post-Detroit I think it was updated towards our show. What's the percentage of mileage that's being driven autonomous right now or kind of life to date in Vegas? How many disengagements or what type of disengagements you're seeing. And maybe just talk a little bit about the learning of this system that you're seeing from and when we are out there in Vegas too today in July?
Kevin Clark:
So, the system we have today is obviously stronger than what we had at CES. So, we go through a regular process of updating and enhancing and quite frankly, that's why we have the Las Vegas location that's for further validation and development of the underlying technology. The vehicles tend to continue to be riding at roughly 99% autonomous. We have roughly 15 vehicles on the Lyft network today. We have roughly 75 in total, 59 were list network growing to 30 before year-end. We served 20 locations now will be 30 by the fall or year-end as well. As it relates to takeover seems like that I don't have that data in front of me, but we continue to make improvements in the underlying system.
Joe Massaro:
Yeah, it's certainly strong. I think David, the learnings as we've talked about before, the learnings at this point from Lyft are really on the commercial side of things. As Kevin mentioned in his prepared remarks data coming off the cars who's that data valuable to, how best to incorporate, and these are learnings for both us and Lyft, how best to incorporate these vehicles into an existing mobility-on-demand network. Where to deploy them when to deploy them as Kevin said, these cars have the ability to run consistently for longer hour and the day. So, at this point, certainly from takeover and an automated drive perspective, the numbers continue to go up from where they were in January, but really this is focused on how best to use these assets to turn revenue.
David Tamberrino:
Yeah, and on that front. Have you seen interest, are you close with anyone kind of signing up or signing someone up to purchase that data?
Kevin Clark:
Yeah. We have several dialogues with the number of folks who'd be interested in location and other data in and around Las Vegas.
David Tamberrino:
Okay. Thank you, gentlemen.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Emmanuel Rosner with Guggenheim.
Emmanuel Rosner:
Hi, good morning.
Kevin Clark:
Good morning, Emmanuel.
Joe Massaro:
Hey, Emmanuel.
Emmanuel Rosner:
So, on Active Safety, it looks like your integration capability is a strong competitive advantage. Have you noticed any meaningfully improved win rates for business now that the OEs request quotes that are -- that include not just ADAS, but also highway auto-pilot?
Kevin Clark:
Yeah. I don’t know if I have right in front of me, I don’t have data as it relates to win rates on ADAS. Our win rates overall have gone up this year versus prior years. And given the amount of ADAS activity, I would assume that that would show a similar sort of trend, Emmanuel. But I think to Joe’s point on the Active Safety side, given there is very limited group of players out there that can do both hardware and software and then overlaying our vehicle architecture capabilities on top of that. I think it’s differentiated us and has resulted in some of the significant wins that we showed in our presentations. I mean those are pretty complex ADAS programs with large multi-national OEs. And when you get into a Level 2 plus systems, you need to be able to be a strong systems integrator.
Emmanuel Rosner:
Understood. And then I guess in terms of your efforts to sort of diversify the revenue stream, so you guys spoke about non-autos at 25%, that’s obviously an ambitious target. So, what is required to get there? And then separately still on the diversification. I think you had laid out some directional targets for having a portion of your revenue from software or from recurring sources. Can you sort of like quantify those or put a timeline on that?
Joe Massaro:
Yeah. I think it’s -- and really Emmanuel we have focused a lot of that conversation around 2025 where we’ve talked about that $1 billion of AMoD -- automated driving revenue, half being from mobility on-demand service providers. So, obviously there is a large percentage of that which we expect to be data services and software sales of the mobility stack. So, that’s obviously part of -- when we think of non-auto revenue, it’s not tied to light vehicle production. So, that’s certainly part of it. The other key things we need to execute on and I think we’ve started making progress already, organic growth of the commercial vehicle business and that really goes across both segments, solid growth in the quarter and we expect solid growth in 2018 as it relates to CV. And then it’s continuing to focus within SPS, continue to focus on those adjacent markets where we think it makes sense for businesses like HellermannTyton that will include organic growth into those non-industrial market, into those non-automotive industrial markets, but it will also be part of the inorganic growth strategy. We think Winchester will serve as a great platform for non-auto ECG acquisitions. We’d often come across smaller connector businesses that we liked, that were non-auto, that we thought we could acquire, we had a reasonable multiple, but we really didn’t have a place to plug them into and we’re obviously a large company. And without a platform to bolt-on to if you will, it is hard to do bolt-on transactions. So, Winchester really gives us the ability to go into those markets and identify opportunities there. Winchester has as Kevin mentioned solid management team, very experienced in M&A. We’ll help them in a couple of ways. We think we’ll have some material saving synergies long-term that benefit them. They’re also 80% to 85% North America at this point. And for smaller company going into Asia Pacific, going into Europe in a meaningful way is more challenging just given the infrastructure. We obviously have a lot of capabilities in those parts of the world to help them ramp more quickly in Europe and Asia-Pac. So, we certainly see broadly speaking SPS, but particularly the engineered components group is a meaningful next step in that non-automotive revenue.
Emmanuel Rosner:
That’s great color. Thank you.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Rich Kwas with Wells Fargo Securities.
Rich Kwas:
Hi, good morning, all.
Kevin Clark:
Hey, good morning.
Joe Massaro:
Hey, Rich.
Rich Kwas:
Just two for me. So, I didn’t hear anything on tariff, so I assume that is immaterial at this point, on 301.
Joe Massaro:
Yes, so good question. Yes, it is, we’ve benefit there really from our operating model, we’re very focused on localize production, localize sourcing, if you look right now, what I’ll call it the direct – potential direct impact. We only have about $400 million of material flows between the two countries and quite honestly as we started to look at that, we found pretty straightforward ways to localize about half of that. The only reason that’s not localize now and this is particularly along the engineered components group. From a capital deployment perspective at the moment it's more capital efficient to produce in one place and ship. To the extent that became more expensive than the trade-off of putting capital locally would obviously switch and we’d be able to localize. So, it’s just at this point at $400 million you’re talking about maybe a $5 million to $10 million impact from tariff. So, it’s just not material. Given the portfolio moves to the business, we have significantly changed our buying, what we buy, what we need to buy to manufacture. Our global steel and aluminum buy are less than $10 million annually, so that’s just not registering as problematic at this point.
Rich Kwas:
And Joe on that $5 million to $10 million, is that an annualize number or half year number.
Joe Massaro:
No, annualized.
Rich Kwas:
Okay. And then Kevin just a question, so Winchester gets into portion as it is – how much scale does this give you, are there other any opportunities out there, where you could do additional M&A and further – the scale?
Kevin Clark:
Yes, definitely. So, Winchester as I said strong operating teams, strong business team, great systems have experience with M&A in these small spaces that Joe alluded to. And our EBIT [ph] to them will be continuing to go out and do what they have been doing and we’ll provide them support in certain areas from utility standpoint and the control standpoint.
Rich Kwas:
Okay, so is that market fairly fragmented?
Kevin Clark:
Yes, when you look at the connector engineered component space, it's very fragmented. As Joe said, there is a period of time where consolidation took place, where the larger players and we bought MVL back in 2012. I would say that was the last of the medium size connector players that were out there and then from there it drops down to relatively smaller businesses out there. So – and the number of them are very strong. So, we’ll continue to acquire those businesses integrate them into the Winchester business model. But again, a big piece of diversification strategy is really about doing more with what we already have. So, Joe talked about commercial vehicle market, that’s again existing product portfolio with more focused in selling into commercial vehicle. We purchased the Control Tech business, the data business that’s growing just under 20% per year, its non -- it’s not tied to vehicle production, tied to data and value through data, continue to grow that business and focus that business in the OE market as well as in the AMoD market and that’s in the connector space through engineered component space.
Rich Kwas:
Great. Thank you.
Kevin Clark:
Thanks, Rich.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Steven Fox with Cross Research.
Kevin Clark:
Hi, Steven.
Steven Fox:
Hi, good morning. First question just, getting back to the mobility landscape, there has been a lot of activity in last 90 days along the line with tie ups between different types of companies, capital structure, just had a. I just curious if we step back and look at all that and given your investments increasing, what is it say for how maybe the landscape is changing relative to your position. And then I had a quick follow-up.
Kevin Clark:
Yes, I think, and Joe should comment as well. Listen, I think it depends at – the answer to question depends on the perspective through which you are pursuing opportunities in this market, right. I think it’s important to know, we are focused on selling autonomous driving systems and perception systems and vehicle architecture into the automated driving market, whether that be with OEMs, or that be with mobility providers. So, we’re pursuing all the opportunities to generate incremental profitable revenues, Joe sometimes alludes to. We’re not looking to be the army; we’re looking to be the arms dealer. And, you know, all the players that you talk about, we sell product to that are used on their automated vehicles. And it ranges from the architecture to perception systems to other software. And that’s the space that we really like to be. We think it's the best space to be. Now, a part of our strategy is to sell the full systems and that’s primarily focused to fleet management providers, right? But folks, OEs or others who decide they wanted to do a portion of this business on their own, we’re more than happy to provide them with whatever it is that they need. Joe?
Joe Massaro:
No, I think from what we see, and one of the reasons we’ve increased spend sort of accommodate the level of commercial discussions we’re seeing now. When you have a big announcement from WeMo [ph] or CM Cruise [ph], the other folks interested in being in this space tend to want to accelerate their development and we’re viewed as a leading enabler of this technology thinking of the Lyft cars on the road in Vegas are a clear demonstration of that. And so, our activity from all the others, we actually tend to see a bit of pick up in the discussions when you see big meaningful announcements coming out of like a WeMo or a GM Softbank.
Steven Fox:
Great, that’s really helpful. And then, just a clarification, just to be painfully clear on the Winchester deal. You’re setting it up to sort of its own entity and to leverage its brand name with your own technology, I get that part, but, to the exempt that it is a broad line connector maker under your umbrella. How do you position against some of the major players out there like a TE connectivity and Eveline [ph] as you diversify your own business?
A - Joe Massaro:
Yeah, listen, I think for Winchester, they position themselves very well. We’ll - much like we did with HellermannTyton since 2015, we will provide a global footprint, provide capital, provide things like material synergies and some horsepower but that management team has done a great job over the last few years of positioning themselves to be very competitive as it relates to very complex harsh environment interconnect systems, whether that’s into Milero [ph] or some of the other industries. So, really the way much like we did with HellermannTyton. Again, HellermannTyton as Kevin mentioned was a very good teacher for us on how to incorporate a well-run business that is not a 100% auto into our broader system and we’ll continue to use that play book with Winchester. So, Aptiv will support from behind. But it's really that management team through their product development efforts, their marketing efforts, great sales force, that’s really been able to distinguish the Winchester brand. And bringing customers quite honestly, is Aptiv even if we had the technology or could port the know-how from auto to other industries. Whatever, really hard time going into a Boeing or going into an Airbus. And as we sit here today, on that part of the business, we now have through HellermannTyton and then through Winchester, are going to have content on platforms like the 787s, the Airbus A350, the F35. So, we’re really starting to broaden that base, but our perspective when we do businesses like Winchester, HellermannTyton is buy we really smart management teams that understand their channels, understand their go to market strategies and we support them, but we’re really leveraging that management team to do a lot of the commercial activity and product activity.
Kevin Clark:
Yeah, I think it’s important to know - to really reinforce Joe's comment about like HellermannTyton, this is about acquiring a great asset and it's a business, quite frankly the numbers speak for themselves, high single-digit revenue growth and EBITDA margins that are in line with our control - our connector.
Joe Massaro:
Yes, north of 20%.
Kevin Clark:
So, it’s a very well-run business for the great team and a great set of assets, and how do we bring additional value to them whether that be from sourcing synergies or incremental resources.
Joe Massaro:
Yeah, I think, as I mentioned earlier, where we really thought there was both sides, the Winchester side and ourselves that we really complimented each other. We would have a had a hard time buying smaller connection system businesses without a platform to bulk them into right and it'd be very hard to buy a 30 or 40 million revenue, no arrow connector business and plug it into auto business. It just not the way they run, it would be distractions on both sides. So, we needed a platform and they quite honestly would benefit from being part of a large global player that can support them accordingly.
Steven Fox:
Great. That’s helpful. Congrats on the results.
Kevin Clark:
Thanks.
Operator:
Our final question comes from the line of Colin Langan with UBS.
Kevin Clark:
Good morning, Colin.
Colin Langan:
Thanks for taking my questions. Just one clarification. You mentioned that the China tariff would be a $5 million to $10 million headwind, I guess assuming that there is a tariff [Indiscernible] official yet. But the rates they’ve quoted is 10% [Indiscernible] there is $400 million in transit. Will that be like a $40 million number of what am I missing on the math there?
Elena Rosman:
On the tariffs math.
Joe Massaro:
Yeah. I think on that stuff, from the schedules we have seen, it’s where we go in and look out what we’d pay on those individual products. And again, then we’d start sort of mitigating instantly, if not to somewhat proactively.
Colin Langan:
Let’s just say it would be less than 10% on the…
Joe Massaro:
Yeah.
Colin Langan:
Okay. And just to clarify for the guidance. Is KUM included it in the updated guidance? And if so, how much of that helps us?
Joe Massaro:
Yeah. KUM was, we thought it was going to close a little later in the year, it was effectively in the range in Q1, it’s going to close a little bit earlier. It is in the guidance now since we’ve closed. I’d call it about $10 million of EBIT for the balance of the year. This is one where you obviously you pick up sort of the full purchasing accounting deals amortization before you start to hit all the synergies and stuff. So, it will ramp over the course of 2019, but I’d call it $10 million of OI in the back half of the year, probably $0.03 of EPS.
Colin Langan:
Got it. And just strategically, how is the infotainment market shaping up today because I know there is -- some people are talking about Android getting more involved in the market, I think they’re actually launching their own infotainment products. Are you concerned about that or it that a different stage from [Indiscernible]?
Kevin Clark:
Yeah. So, listen, we didn’t bring any content into the automotive space especially if it’s from consumer electronics is helpful. As a systems integrator, we actually are launching one of those Android programs. So, we’re one of their partners. We think it’s something that quite frankly given our systems integration capabilities and software capabilities provides additional opportunity.
Colin Langan:
Got it. And just lastly. Can you just quickly remind us what is the name content you have on the Audi A8 first Level 3 vehicle as the multi-domain controller, is it mostly hardware and software, any dimension there would be helpful? Thanks.
Kevin Clark:
Yeah. It’s the multi-domain controller, it’s software, it’s some systems integration and then it’s a radar technology.
Colin Langan:
Got it. Thank you very much.
Kevin Clark:
Thanks.
Joe Massaro:
Great. Thanks, Colin.
Kevin Clark:
All right. Well listen, thank you everybody for your time. We greatly appreciate it.
Joe Massaro:
Thank you, all.
Operator:
That concludes the Aptiv Q2 2018 earnings conference call. Thank you for joining. You may now disconnect.
Executives:
Elena Rosman - Vice President of Investor Relations Kevin Clark - President and Chief Executive Officer Joe Massaro - Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Analysts:
Joseph Spak - RBC Capital Markets Brian Johnson - Barclays Chris McNally - Evercore ISI Rod Lache - Deutsche Bank David Leiker - Baird John Murphy - Bank of America Merrill Lynch David Tamberrino - Goldman Sachs David Lim - Wells Fargo Securities Itay Michaeli - Citi
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. And welcome to the Aptiv Q1 2018 Earnings Conference Call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. And after the speaker's remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] Thank you. I will now turn the conference over to Elena Rosman, Vice President, Investor Relations.
Elena Rosman:
Thank you. Good morning, Crystal. And thank you everyone for joining Aptiv's first quarter 2018 earnings conference call. To follow along with today's presentation, our slides can be found at ir.aptive.com. And consistent with prior calls, today's review of our actual and forecasted financials exclude restructuring and other special items and will address the continuing operations of Aptiv. The reconciliation between GAAP and non-GAAP measures is included in the back of the presentation and today's press release. Please see slide two for a disclosure on forward-looking statements, which reflects Aptiv's current view of future financial performance, which may be materially different from our actual performance for reasons that we cite in our Form 10-K and other SEC filings. Joining us today will be Kevin Clark, Aptiv's President and CEO; and Joe Massaro, CFO and Senior Vice President. Kevin will provide a strategic update on the business, and then Joe will cover the financial results and our outlook for 2018 in more detail. With that, I would like to turn the call over to Kevin Clark.
Kevin Clark:
Thank you, Elena. Good morning, everyone. Thanks for joining us. I am going to begin by providing highlights from the first quarter, including key new business awards and recent developments across the portfolio. Joe, will then take you through our detailed financial results for the first quarter, as well as our outlook for the second quarter and the full year. Our Q1 results reflect a great start to the year with a continuation of 2017s positive operating trends, in addition to the achievement of some important new milestones. Aptiv had record first quarter revenue operating income and earnings per share, all above the high end of our guidance range. Revenue was up 8%, nine points over market. Operating margins expanded to 11.8%. Earnings per share increased 19% and new business awards totaled $5 billion supporting continued growth across our portfolio. We reached an agreement to acquire KUM, an accretive bolt-on to our engineered components business, which will also strengthen our competitive position in the Asia Pacific market. And lastly, I want to highlight that Aptiv was recognized as one of the top 10 most innovative companies by Fast Company magazine in both the transportation and artificial intelligence fields, underscoring the autonomous driving capabilities at Aptiv. We're dedicated to developing and commercializing new technology solutions and the Fast Company Award recognizes our leadership position in enabling next generation vehicle features and functionality. Turning to slide four. As you can see on the left side of the chart, we had a strong start to the year with significant new customer awards in both of our segments, which I mentioned totaled over $5 billion. And while bookings can be lumpy from quarter-to-quarter, we're on track to exceed last year's bookings levels of $19.3 billion. These customer awards further highlight our portfolio alignment to the safe, green and connected mega trends, which is driving robust growth in both the Advanced Safety and User Experience and Signal and Power Solutions segments. Our multi-year success is in large part the result of the strong foundation that we have to build upon, with leadership positions in fast growing areas of advance technology, including Aptiv Safety, where we're seeing a significant ramp up in customer awards as the Level one and two ADAS market continues to grow at more than a 15% compounded rate. As a result, our active safety bookings totaled $6 billion since 2016, supported continued strong growth for the next few years. We're also experiencing a substantial uptick in Level two plus and Level three request for proposals from OEM customers, which dovetail nicely with our commercial Level four and Level five development program which is principally focused on opportunities in the automated, mobility, on demand market. Infotainment and user experience bookings totaled over $5 billion cumulatively since 2016. Our strong backlog of awards gives us confidence that the pace of revenue growth in this product line will continue at roughly 15% per year for the next few years. Turning to Signal & Power Solutions. Our engineered components business has booked over $10 billion of new customer awards since 2016. That includes $1 billion of high voltage connectors, which translates into mid to high single digit revenue growth for the next several years. And industry experts are now estimating nearly 40 million electrified vehicles by 2025, which has translated into over 2 billion of new customer awards for high voltage electrification over the last two years. In summary, these positive trends in new business bookings give us confidence that revenue growth will continue to be robust and accelerate beyond the end of the decade. Turning to segment highlights and starting with Advanced Safety and User Experience on slide five. We're focusing our deep systems expertise in software and central compute platforms to deliver Advanced Safety, user experience and automated driving systems, enabling more connected content in the vehicle. The Advanced Safety and User Experience segment has had nine consecutive quarters of strong double-digit growth, driven by over 55% annual growth in active safety and over 20% annual growth in infotainment and user experience in each of the last two years, which we're confident will continue going forward. The competency is necessary to develop the advanced technologies that are driving today's strong revenue growth in this segment are in fact the building blocks required for the development of future functionality and mobility solutions. Leveraging our portfolio of industry leading user experience technologies, Aptiv was selected by BMW to provide integrated gesture control and driver monitoring for their three and five series vehicles, an extension of our existing strategic partnership with BMW to enhance the consumer's overall in-cabin experience. As vehicles become safer, more connected, we're helping our customers navigate the need for new vehicle architectures and the computing power necessary to enable the increased software functionality that serves as a building blocks for automated driving. Underscoring that point, let's turn to slide six. The advanced work we're doing today on Level one two and three ADAS systems for our traditional OEM customers is being leveraged in the Level four and Level five automated driving solutions for mobility on demand providers and vice versa. Our newly opened Las Vegas tech center will function as the North American operations and command center, in addition to a test lab to accelerate the development of our Level four and Level five autonomous driving solutions for the AMod market, as well as an innovation and customer showcase center. Today, we also announced the deployment of 30 self-driving vehicles equipped with Aptiv's autonomous driving platform in Las Vegas. These vehicles will be available to the public via Lyft's ride-hailing app on an opt-in basis and riders will pay for rides in these vehicles just like the traditional Lyft ride, delivering our first automated driving revenue streams. We view these deployments as invaluable opportunities to learn how to best operationalize and commercialize automated driving technologies. Together, these are important next steps for Aptiv on our path to commercialization for automated mobility on demand in a thoughtful, prudent and importantly safe manner, while gathering data and insights as we go across our global fleet of approximately 100 vehicles today. Turning to slide seven. Our Signal & Power Solutions segment is focused on the increasing significance of next-gen architectures, requiring high speed data and high power electrical distribution to enable the necessary technologies for the future of mobility. Leveraging our leading portfolio of architectural solutions, the business was awarded seven notable high voltage programs in Q1, bringing our cumulative bookings to $2 billion since 2016. This robust backlog of new business bookings translates in the mid single digit revenue growth over the next several years, which is what we experienced in Q1. 4% revenue growth, five points over market, driven by 64% growth in high voltage revenues and 7% revenue growth in our engineered components business, the result of strong growth in both the automotive and industrial end markets. Revenue growth in this segment also benefited from new platform launches and a very balanced geographic mix, which more than offset the continued weakness in North American passenger car volumes. Turning to slide eight. We've completed a number of transactions over the past few years that have better positioned Aptiv for faster and more profitable growth, including several accretive bolt-on acquisitions, including MVL, Antaya, Unwired and HellermannTyton, which has further strengthened our engineered components business. And events technology acquisition, such as Ottomatika and nuTonomy complementing our portfolio of active safety technologies and enhancing our position in automated driving. In addition to Control-Tec and Movimento which are the foundation of our connected services platform. As a reminder, the acquisition of MVL strengthens our position in the high voltage market and also enhanced our presence in the Asia Pacific region. The Antaya and Unwired acquisitions further expanded our portfolio of proprietary connector technologies and the addition of HellermanTyton provided significant growth opportunities in adjacent industrial end markets. A significant part of our capital allocation strategy remains focused on bolt-on acquisitions in the engineered components space, providing further customer, regional and end market diversification. Turning to slide nine. We're confident that KUM is another example of a great bolt-on acquisition. The company is a leading manufacturer of connectors and cable management solutions for a range of automotive applications. The acquisition enhances our overall competitive position in the Asia Pacific market. We expect the transaction to close in the second half of the year with synergies that are consistent with our track record in the space. As a result, we expect the acquisition to be modestly accretive to EBITDA margins and earnings per share in 2018. In summary, we continue to execute our strategy to better position the company for faster, more stable and profitable growth. And with that, I'll hand the call over to Joe to take us through the first quarter results and our increased guidance for 2018. Joe?
Joe Massaro:
Thanks, Kevin. And good morning, everyone. Starting with the recap of the first quarter financials on slide 10. Results were ahead of the high end of guidance we provided back in February with revenue of $3.6 billion, up 8% or nine points over vehicle production, reflecting accelerated ramp of new program launches. Operating income was $427 million with operating margins of 11.8% consistent with the previous guidance when you take into account the lower flow-through on FX and commodity related revenue in the quarter. Earnings per share of $1.29 was up 19%, $0.10 above the mid-point of our guidance. And operating cash flow was $186 million in line with expectations, but down year over year due to increased working capital requirements to support the acceleration of growth and some spin-related payments in the quarter. Turning to slide 11. Sales of $3.6 billion were approximately $300 million higher than expected. Half of the upside was due to stronger sales volume in both of our segments, while the remainder related to favorable FX and commodity price pass-throughs. From a regional perspective we saw accelerated growth over market in all major regions of the world, despite lagging North American passenger car production which was down 15% in the quarter. And we saw double-digit growth over market in China driven by improving underlying production, robust new launch volume and higher take rates on Advanced Safety and User Experience technologies. Slide 12 walks our operating income performance year-over-year. Margins expanded 60 basis points to 11.8% and operating income was $427 million up 21%. Volume conversion on strong revenue growth and lapping of our prior year commercial settlement more than offset 2% price downs and higher mobility investment spending in the quarter. FX and commodities were a positive in the quarter, including lapping of a prior year hedge loss, although as we've discussed in the past revenue from stronger FX and commodities are dilutive to operating margins. Stronger operating income yielded higher earnings per share in the quarter, as shown on the walk on slide 13. EPS was $1.29 up 19%, $0.10 above the midpoint of our guidance, and you'll also note, we saw a modest improvement in share count related to the 1.7 million shares repurchased in the quarter and our tax rate normalized back to approximately 16% within the expected range of 15% to 16% for the year. Moving to the segments on the next slide. Advanced Safety and User Experience revenues grew 20% in the quarter driven by strong new launch volumes and higher take rates globally in active safety and infotainment, which grew 57% and 17% respectively. Operating margins expanded 220 basis points on a reported basis in the quarter or 480 points excluding the impact of mobility investments, driven by volume conversion on strong revenue growth and the lapping of last year's commercial settlement of a warranty item. Our planned increase in mobility investments totaled roughly $30 million in the quarter and we remain on track to spend approximately $140 million in total for the year consistent with our previous outlook. In summary, the Advanced Safety and User Experience segment is well positioned for continued growth and operating leverage in 2018 and beyond. Turning to Signal and Power Solutions on the next slide. Revenues were up 4% in the quarter driven by robust new launch volume and strong growth in adjacent markets with an engineered components overcoming platform changeovers and passenger car weakness in North America. Operating margins were up 20 basis points in the quarter, as volume favorability and performance initiatives more than offset unfavorable price and the dilutive impact of commodity headwinds. For the year, we expect single-digit - mid-single-digit revenue growth to continue driven by new launches and improved market trends, yielding stronger operating performance and higher margins. In light of our strong first quarter revenue and operating income performance, we are raising our 2018 outlook as reflected on slide 16. Starting with revenue walk in the left, you can see the sales volume upside for the year in addition to stronger FX and commodity pass-throughs. As a result, sales are now expected to be in the range of $13,950 billion to $14,350 billion [ph] and we are increasing our adjusted growth range to 6% to 7% for the year, up from 5% to 6%. Moving to the right. Our updated operating income outlook of $1.75 billion to $1.83 billion reflects 12% growth at the midpoint, driven by higher sales volumes as well as a modest benefit from FX and commodities, which again as you can see from the chart is dilutive to the overall margin rate for the year. Diving deeper into our revised outlook for the year on the next slide. We are targeting global vehicle production up 1%. Our outlook now assumes $1.18 euro rate for the remainder of the year, up from $1.15 and there's no change in tax rate assumptions for the year. Therefore, earnings per share are now expected in the range of $5.20 to $5.40 per share, up 14% at the midpoint and up from our prior guidance range of $5 to $5.20. Operating cash flow is expected to be approximately $1.6 billion, up mid-teens over 2017 with CapEx unchanged at roughly 750. For the second quarter revenues are expected to be up 9% at the midpoint on production growth of roughly 4%. We expect operating margins to expand 30 to 50 basis points and EPS in the range of $1.33 to $1.38, up approximately 19%, including a 15% to 16% tax rate. Moving now to slide 18. We have a strong track record of execution acquiring and integrating bolt-on acquisitions like the ones listed on the page that strengthen our portfolio and allow us to penetrate new customers and expand into new markets. In all cases, we have achieved or exceeded planned synergies and each of our acquisitions has been accretive to growth, earnings and cash flow, and as it relates to KUM, we're confident we will continue to build upon of this track record. Turning to the next slide. I'm sure you've heard me say repeatedly, we are maniacal about our cost structure, allowing us to lower our breakeven levels, fund incremental growth investments and enable our strong track record of margin expansion and double digit earnings growth. Our plan for eliminating stranded costs from the powertrain spin-off remain on track, as we continue working towards the goal of these costs effectively being removed by the end of 2019. Also over the past few months, we evaluated options for relocating the company's global headquarters in the U.K. And after thorough consideration, we're pleased to announce our decision to move to Dublin, Ireland a vibrant technology hub and strong fit for Aptiv going forward. The relocation to Dublin will allow us to consolidate a number of our corporate and European operations into a single location, streamlining these functions while reducing our non-manufacturing and non-engineering footprint and leverage the strong base of local talent to consolidate our corporate operations into a single location. With that I'd like to hand the call back to Kevin for his closing remarks.
Kevin Clark:
Thanks Joe. Let me summarize on slide 20 before turning it over for Q&A. Aptiv delivered another strong quarter with revenue and earnings above expectations driven by momentum across our portfolio. Customers are increasingly looking to us as their partner of choice as reflected by our strong new business bookings performance both in the quarter and over the last few years. Our strong finish to 2017 and great start to 2018 gives us confidence in our increased guidance for the year including 6% to 7% organic growth 20 to 40 basis points of margin expansion and 12% to 16% earnings per share growth. We remain committed to driving future growth by continuing to invest organically and inorganically to strengthen our business foundation, further expand our competitive modes and capture opportunities in new markets. And as Joe said, we remain relentlessly focused on improving our cost structure and leveraging operational efficiencies to both reinvest in the business and to expand margins, grow earnings and cash flow and deliver outside shareholder returns. With that let's open up the line for Q&A.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from the line of Joseph Spak with RBC Capital Markets.
Joseph Spak:
Thanks. First question is just on the Lyft agreement. Is that separate from the deployment you mentioned earlier? So I guess, that would be in conjunction with the city and any more sort of details you could provide about how revenue sharing agreement would look like?
Kevin Clark:
Sure, Joe. I'll start and Joe can chime in. As you know, we had a pilot with Lyft during CES in January of 2018 where we had vehicles on the Lyft network. This is an extension of that and I guess a more permanent structure as it relates to going forward in Las Vegas where we'll expand from roughly 10 cars on the road to 30 cars on the road. So it's an opportunity for us to plug into their network for us to manage a fleet of 80 vehicles for us to continue to enhance our underlying technologies. It's an opportunity for Lyft to continue to use their commercial apps or consumer apps as it relates to connectivity with customers. As it relates to revenue sharing, I don't want to get into the details of that quite frankly. It is however our first opportunity to actually generate revenue for automated driving ride. So we view it as a big step forward. Joe, you want to add?
Joe Massaro:
I think that covers all.
Joseph Spak:
Okay. And then Joe maybe just on capital allocation, so you spent about $500 million on KUM. That's sort of below the 50% of cash from ops or the $800 million free cash flow guidance for the year. And the cash balances are already a little bit higher with the dividend back from Delphi. So it seems like you still have a good amount of firepower. Can you just talk a little bit more about the plans or sort of the pipeline M&A and what you want to do with the cash?
Kevin Clark:
Yes. So Joe, good question. Capital allocation philosophy remains unchanged. We'll invest in the business, dividends in place, we believe it's competitive. M&A opportunities are - the funnel looks good. KUM will close in the second half of the quarter. You're right about $500 million in cash. And also gave us the opportunity to buyback some shares about $150 million worth in Q1. So we're going to continue to stay balanced as we have in the past. But I do think over the coming quarters even into next year we still see some opportunities on the M&A side. Really and I think for us KUM is really in our sweet spot. That is a multiple that's in the sixes post synergies. It's a very attractive deal from our perspective. It is one that we're going to be able to integrate very quickly. We'd expect that integration to really take sort of a six month timeframe from close. And it's a business that fits us very well. There's some overlap with HellermanTyton. We'll be able to get some leverage and some synergies there, as well as big connector portfolio. So certainly, the kind of deal we'd like and the kind of deal would like to do more of.
Joseph Spak:
Thanks.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Brian Johnson with Barclays.
Brian Johnson:
Take rates and active safety infotainment improved globally which help that organic growth numbers in Advanced Safety and User Experience. Could you give us a little more just kind of detail on just what was the impact of new business bookings, what you were seeing in take rates during the quarter? And kind of in infotainment, is there a trend, specifically. In infotainment, is there a trend to mid-to-high or other features that favor your product mix? And then in active safety is it take rates on A B? Is it A B plus more advanced features that's driving that?
Kevin Clark:
Yes. So I'll start Brian. I think as it relates to both active safety and infotainment, you're seeing a ramp up in overall take rates. As it relates to product within areas like infotainment where you're seeing the biggest growth, quite frankly is in the mid-level systems, so continued strong growth in high, very strong growth in the mid-level systems and actually slower growth in the low end systems. Take rates, I don't have off the top of my head, but we've been in a pretty consistent revenue stream of between 15% to 20% revenue growth in that product line for the last several years. And when you look at our bookings levels, our bookings levels have been consistently two times our historical revenues, so very strong growth. On the active safety side, it's a mix of new wins as well as penetration. And to some extent, it's difficult to surgically decipher the two. So as an example, I believe a few years ago we had five customers that we had active safety business with. Today, we have 15. So significant expansion across a number of customers, some of that is further penetration on existing programs, some of that is customers who are introducing new programs. So it's an area where again, we expect to continue to see rapid 50% plus growth over the next couple of years. And we certainly have the bookings to support that. There are some customers China and other regions where more of the activity is in and around Level one sort of active safety, very high growth north of 100% growth rates in those sorts of markets but in less sophisticated active safety systems. When you look at North America and Europe it tends to be a transition from Level one to level - advance Level one to level two. Joe you want to?
Joe Massaro:
No, I think that covers it Brian. As they move particularly in active safety as they're moving across multiple platforms growth take rate versus volume does get a little hard to exactly figure out. But we are seeing both as Kevin said. The other thing I mentioned bookings continue to be incredibly strong. We booked $900 million of active safety bookings in Q1. That's about the full year level for 2013 and 2014. So this is a business that is very well positioned to continue to grow and is very strong in the marketplace, very strong with customer wins. And again just that is a big booking number for the quarter and we expect that - again bookings are always lumpy but we expect that trajectory to continue over the longer term.
Brian Johnson:
So what does that mean for a book-to-bill?
Kevin Clark:
Well book-to-bill just in the quarter alone, we did just point of reference lastly on active safety we had just under $600 million of revenues and in the first quarter we booked almost yes almost $900 million.
Joe Massaro:
$900 million yes.
Brian Johnson:
And just does what is this kind of take rate growth and just launch imply for the midterm organic growth rate for ASU 8?
Kevin Clark:
You're solid double-digit growth - segment growth rate.
Joe Massaro:
Segment growth rate, yes. As Kevin mentioned for active safety, we expect this plus 45%, plus 50% to continue.
Brian Johnson:
And just final question over on signal and power solutions, any progress in the kind of senior level executive discussions around next gen architecture and kind of when some of those programs might actually become bookings?
Kevin Clark:
Yes there is a lot as it relates to discussions. So we're in rare workshops I don't know roughly half a dozen OEs today most of them European, that transitional take place in stages. First it'll be consolidation as it relates to consolidation within particular area like safety controllers, like Integrated Cockpit Controllers in that area and then kind of the second stage going to a more I guess a cleaner sheet approach as it relates to vehicle architecture. So we see kind of the first stage is really, really happening from a significant growth standpoint and kind of 2021 and then 2025 for a more broader look at vehicle architecture. But a lot of discussion - on the integrated topic side, we have three customers were rolled out or will be rolling out over the next year or so. I think we reviewed Brian with you and a number of investors and customers our CSP platform which crosses a number of multi domains and our number of domains and adds functional safety to controller capability. We did that at CES in 2018. There is a lot of interest in and around that both what it does from a cost savings standpoint, a mass saving standpoint, the fact that you can connect eight domains to it versus the typical Integrated Cockpit Controller today does two. So there is a great deal of interest, a great deal of dialogue, and importantly it gets us a really great seat at the table from a strategic discussion standpoint across all of our customers. And I think quite frankly it's one of the reasons you've seen us have so much success with customers like BMW quite frankly who are at the forefront for automotive technology.
Brian Johnson:
Okay. Thank you.
Kevin Clark:
Thanks.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Chris McNally with Evercore ISI.
Kevin Clark:
Hi, Chris.
Chris McNally:
Good morning, guys. Great results.
Kevin Clark:
Thanks.
Joe Massaro:
Thanks.
Chris McNally:
My question's on the cadence of the SBS and the single digit growth across the - you've given the GM change over. So Q1 was at 4%. It looks like Q2 is clearly something stronger. I get sort of high single digits. Is it fair to think though that Q3 as a result of the changeover will sort of be a low point for the year and then Q4 strong again? You just wouldn't mind confirming if that's a broadly fair interpretation of the guide?
Joe Massaro:
Yes, Chris I think it's a fairly steady march through the year for the segment from an adjusted growth perspective. We see it at the 4%. We see it sort of ending the year around 5%, so maybe a little bit of a tick up during the year. But it's a fairly steady march. Q2 you're right we'll be a little bit higher, but we think this business is about a five call it round numbers of 5% growth for the year.
Chris McNally:
Okay. That's fantastic. And then just a longer term question. So we're clearly seeing some pickup in the pace of connectivity plans. I mean if you take a look at Ford's 2020 4G plan is as standard. Is there a chance that we can see some of this upside flow through to your electrical business as we approach 2020? And if so would we see it in the EEG, the ECG businesses or potentially both?
Joe Massaro:
So yes, when you think about connectivity Chris it's really - vehicle architecture is what enables it, right. I would say most of the plans as it relates to connectivity have been laid for years 2019, 2020, 2021. So I think that's reflected in the medium term guidance we've given for that segment. Now having said that, if you see more rapid adoption if you see higher take rates there would be an upward bias in Electrical Architecture and that would affect our connector business. It would affect our cable management business and it would affect our electrical distribution systems business, our wire harness business, so all three.
Chris McNally:
Okay. Great. Thanks so much guys.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Rod Lache with Deutsche Bank.
Rod Lache:
Good morning, everybody.
Kevin Clark:
Good morning, Rod.
Joe Massaro:
Good morning, Rod.
Rod Lache:
I had a couple of questions. First at your Investor Day you talked about kind of a midterm 2022 revenue target of $17 billion. And it seems like that's no longer applicable since you've won $19 billion in 2016-2017 and it sounds like you're going to beat it this year. So I was hoping you might comment on how you're thinking about the longer term targets. And related to that can you provide any color on what your market share looks like in high voltage. What's the booking opportunity there and what's your market share in active safety at this point?
Joe Massaro:
Yes, Rod. We're obviously not going to redo the Investor Day long-term guidance here. I mean obviously from a fundamental perspective we're feeling very good about where some of those key businesses are, Active safety infotainment and high voltage. The broader Signal and Power business is doing very well. As I mentioned in my prepared remarks, continue to see really good growth in the adjacent market side of the business things like that, half of the industrial electrical business within HellermannTyton. So continue to feel very confident and have obviously taken the numbers up for 2018. And certainly would expect that confidence to continue. But we're not going to give out the numbers. As it relates to, I will make a comment on high voltage and then Kevin can comment on the active safety. High voltage continues to be a very attractive space. You've heard us talk about it given our presence in Signal and Power Solutions we feel we have a very strong right to play, $2 billion worth of bookings since 2016 in high voltage, although growing off a small base expect that business to grow well over 50% in 2018. So you've got a $300 million or so business that's effectively add segment margins growing over 50%, and ultimately believe, we have the ability to stake out in the market position in high voltage that we do in the low-voltage signal and Power Solutions business. That's certainly our goal internally and feels that's a reasonable expectation for us to set and for people to hold us to just given where we play on the low voltage side.
Kevin Clark:
Yes. So right I guess the way I would to maybe augment Joe's comment I think based on what we're seeing in active safety based on what we're seeing in areas like vehicle electrification vehicle connectivity I'd say the bias is stronger than our view of it one year ago. So that gives us more confidence in the numbers that we obviously communicated. Having said that, as you know, there is multiple items that affect those numbers like foreign exchange rates, like commodity prices, like OE decisions on mix. But I guess what I would say we feel even more confident in those underlying projections that we gave people. As it relates to ADAS, when you look at the top five ADAS players we put ourselves at roughly number four today. We tell you based on our bookings that we'll end at number two close to number one, I think in 2020 or 2021. And we're doing that based on wins principally in the radar space and in the safety controller space. And it's an area where we feel like we benefit significantly having capabilities in and around vehicle architecture as well as the software capabilities that we bring to perception systems like radar, like vision, as well as the incremental benefits that we're getting from our expertise and the experience in automated driving from Ottomatika and NuTonomy. So we'd expect this year to book $3 billion and more of active safety bookings, which is in line a little bit less than what we booked roughly the same or a little less than what we booked last year, which is significantly higher than what we've booked in all the previous years.
Rod Lache:
Do you have a target for high voltage bookings for this year?
Kevin Clark:
We don't necessarily have a target for high voltage bookings but there is a lot of activity in and around high voltage bookings, and the fact that really in the first quarter we booked close to $300 million. We would expect to have a strong bookings year. As a point of reference last year we booked close to $1 billion. So we expect to be in that range or more in 2018.
Rod Lache:
And just two quick follow ups. Is your China high voltage share above below or at your segment average? And secondly, you're talking about 5% to 6% growth over market for the year, up from 5%, but in Q1 you did something like 9%. So is there any specific reason why the growth over market would slow in the coming quarters?
Joe Massaro:
Yes. I think Rod, there is no specific reason. Listen, I think the launch volume and the take rates came up quicker in Q1. That was in our guide. So we sort of got there a little bit quicker relative to our original outlook for the year. Q2 we always had a strong. I think overall growth over markets a little tricky to call quarter in quarter out just given changes in production and to some extent the comps year-over-year. So nothing specific beyond sort of quarterly ins and outs and some of the comps. We're very confident in our - that 5 to 7 points above market growth for the full-year. We think will still be there, and again, it's just a matter of the sort of ins and outs of the quarter. I would say China at the moment, I would probably say it's going to be a strong electrification market where we think we should be but it's probably more in line with the segment at the moment than plus or minus.
Rod Lache:
Okay. Great. Thank you.
Joe Massaro:
Thanks.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of David Leiker with Baird.
David Leiker:
Hey. Good morning, everyone.
Kevin Clark:
Good morning, David.
Joe Massaro:
Good morning.
David Leiker:
On the KUM acquisition, I know you called out Asia Pacific customers high voltage customers. What's the mix of that business between automotive and non-automotive?
Kevin Clark:
All automotive. So that's an all automotive one, David.
David Leiker:
All?
Kevin Clark:
Yes. So that's going to go - it's about 65%, 70% Korean manufacturers. There's another 30 plus, round number 30% in China. So it gives us some local OE. It gives us some China presence in there, very well run connector business. We've known the individuals, a family run business we've known the individuals for a while. And our Asia PAC team led by Simon had done a nice job of maintaining those relationships. So as the business came up for sale we're actually able to deal with it in almost on an exclusively basis effectively, so we know the business. And again, it's going to be a good - we need the capacity. It's going to be helpful from that perspective but there's a lot of opportunity for integration. And like we've done in the past placing our buy power on a business of that size will help from a material savings perspective which is where we think the majority of synergies will come from.
David Leiker:
Okay. Great. And then on a second item, you mentioned the BMW the 3 and the 5 Series just control going on there. But we've seen some other things the interior of the Mercedes A Class. And it seems like the automakers are historically the newest technology would go on the top of the line of the car and over the next six years filter down in a successive order. They seem to be a technology in the market when it's ready and whatever car is coming next, just how much of that do you think is happening and how pervasive do you think that is?
Kevin Clark:
Yes. Listen, I think it's tough to give a precise number. I think it's happening more. It's certainly happening with those OEs were technology oriented and have a brand that can command price. So I'd say that David that's where we're seeing most of it is with the German premium brands. And I think you're right. We're used to start with the S Class or the seven series or the 88 with Audi. It's now more pervasive across our broader lineup of luxury vehicles, you're right.
David Leiker:
Okay. Thank you.
Kevin Clark:
Thank you
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of John Murphy with Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
John Murphy:
Good morning, guys.
Kevin Clark:
Hey, John, how are you?
John Murphy:
Good. How are you?
Kevin Clark:
Good.
John Murphy:
Just a first question on M&A and really what it means for growth rates here. I mean, when you guys talk about your growth of a market it's very much core organic growth, and then these acquisitions, which are bolt-on that are coming sort of consistently over time, are additive to that, correct? And just trying to understand that because I think when you look at this it's kind of purchase R&D and business but it's funded organically. So it's kind of a twitchy thing we're somewhere between organic and acquired?
Joe Massaro:
Yeah. I think the organic growth - your KUM is not in the guide at this point. We want to put it in until we closed. It's going to be H2 close. We don't expect any issues with the close. It just takes time to close deals in that part of the world. So, I think it's probably more of a 2019 impact of the numbers, that one will be integrated quickly too. And it's relative to the connective business. It's an important deal but it's not particularly large to that connector business. So, yes, the organic growth above market in our event growth rate of that 6% to 7% that's our organic number effectively. That's what the businesses are doing. And again KUM at this point will move that significantly just given its size to the extent we did larger deals as we've done in the past we're like HellermannTyton, a deal of that size we certainly called that out from the growth rate for the first year after acquisition.
John Murphy:
I guess, I was just getting into question it's kind of semantics. I mean, it seems like you are understanding your organically funded growth rate to some degree when you talk about your future projections and there could be some real upside that's kind of what I was trying to get at, is that a fair statement. I mean if these acquisitions are coming at when you talk about the M&A pipeline being fairly strong, is it being funded organically, it just seems like you're being very conservative in your future numbers?
Joe Massaro:
Yes, if you're presuming that an acquisition like that is effectively purchased R&D right and it's kind of a make buy I guess you can look at it that way. I think the guidance we've given here and we've given historically doesn't include any acquisitions, does not include acquisitions that we've not closed on. So KUM is not in the numbers.
John Murphy:
Okay. That's very helpful. And then just a second question. As we think about sort of the shift away from passenger cars in the North American market which may be followed globally. Just curious what that means to sort of some of these programs are hastily being canceled or exited and what that means to your business? And if that's more of a risk or potentially a real opportunity as you have higher content and vehicles and there's more investment in a lower level of platforms?
Joe Massaro:
Yes. Listen, this is something we've been working through and preparing for a while. I think long-term you're right. SUV truck is a better content profile for us particularly as you get to the higher end SUVs. The Ford announcement we're obviously watching closely. We'll work through them on what that means and how quickly Ford revenue for us on the passenger car model we're talking about is a little over 200 million a year. So it's a number over a three-year period. We feel like we could certainly work through with them. FCA was bigger than that when they sort of - FCA was over $300 million and that plug and pulled fairly quickly and we managed to work through it. So we also think for particularly with folks like Ford and several of the others there is - we've got some upside and some opportunities to do more on their truck and SUV platforms as well over time.
Kevin Clark:
Yes. John this is Kevin. Starting a couple of years ago, we started to really watch the trend closely on passenger car versus SUV and truck. And quite frankly we view it as a global trend in addition to our North American trend. So as we look at bookings, as we look at pursuits, we really refocus the team or increase the focus of the team on trucks SUV globally. So we feel like we're in a position as Joe said to certainly manage through the recent announcement as it relates to Ford which is going to transition over a fairly lengthy period of time. As Joe mentioned, FCA last year was a little bit more challenging. That was a decision to real quickly exit out of passenger car production. But we feel like we're in a good position to manage through near-term and longer term should benefit from it.
John Murphy:
Okay. Great. And then just one last question on the Lyft Fleet or the Aptiv Lyft Fleet I should say out in Vegas. Who owns those vehicles? And how are they being service and managed sort of just physically and logistics out there?
Kevin Clark:
Yes. So today with the fleet of the sites that we have today, we have 100 vehicles on the road globally. We have north of 30 in Las Vegas. But 30 will be a part of the full Lyft network, we're managing those, we're owning those. As the fleet gets larger that's something where we'll be a third party customer. And whether they manage the fleet or we manage it on their behalf or quite frankly there are third parties that we are in discussions with about who are more experienced than a part of our business as fleet management from a day to day standpoint. That's something that we'd evaluate having a third party to actually do that on our behalf.
Joe Massaro:
And I think John these cars, the 30 - to Kevin's point are an extension of the test fleet. So we'll own and operate them. We still go through obviously the updating of the software and the perception systems. As we've talked about before as something like that were to grow to scale, we think there are folks out there from a finance perspective that would own those assets. We certainly wouldn't expect to put those in our balance sheet. But this is more given its nature and its size at the moment, we'll keep those cars.
John Murphy:
And for right now, I assume there are safety drivers for those vehicles, is that correct?
Joe Massaro:
Yes. Yes there will be safety drivers. They'll be at a normal configuration you use to see. So yes so two folks in the car performing those ride, and we're obviously working to move beyond that. But for commencement of operations with these 30 cars there will be our two engineers on the car.
John Murphy:
Great, stuff. Thank you very much.
Operator:
You next question comes from the line of David Tamberrino with Goldman Sachs.
David Tamberrino:
Great. Hi, good morning. I want to follow up there because 30 vehicles in Vegas, seems like a good setup. I'm just wondering how you see this progressing with Lyft? Could you be going to additional cities?
Kevin Clark:
Listen, our focus - so we're in discussions with multiple cities and mobility on demand providers. We could be entering additional cities with Lyft. We will be entering in partnership with others in other cities. David, I think as you know, we announced the partnership with the City of Las Vegas. They will be rolling out in 2019 or 2020 for vehicles as well. So we're really focused on pursuing opportunities with multiple parties and really doing it globally, so operating in cities in the U.S. and Europe as well as in Asia. I think today we operate - we have a pretty big footprint in Singapore, partnering with the Singapore LTA, and that's something that we'll continue to expand upon. So we're looking in - long winded answer saying, we're looking to partner within a number of different providers.
David Tamberrino:
Right. I mean, is this still just more on the development side. It seems like you've got a pretty decent proof of concept for standing up on autonomous ride hailing solution. What's the data that you're going to be harvesting from these vehicles from both the sensor suite as well as the customer facing side, and how are you looking to monetize that going forward?
Kevin Clark:
Well, what we're doing in Las Vegas today is the customer facing is Lift. That's where they have experience and expertise and that's where they do an outstanding job. Obviously, for us today, it's the vehicle. It's the vehicle software and the - as well as the architecture. We continue to do this because our target is to get the driver out of the car and to do it as quickly as we can. So today to Joe's point, we really view this as a development activity and then an opportunity to collect dollars commercially to help fund or offset some of the cost related to that development, vehicle development or software development.
Joe Massaro:
Yes. David, the way I would frame it and not to be overly nuance, but if you went back a year or two, the rides in Vegas, all of the cars on the road that we had were testing the technological applications of this, right. I would say this Lift is the first time we're testing the commercial application, right. These cars in an automotive mobility on demand setting, what's best practice on how to run them, where do you start to get consumer adoption ? And so, I think, you could call it a pilot or a test, but it's more of a commercial pilot than a technology pilot, if that makes sense to you.
David Tamberrino:
Okay. No, it does. It's helpful, because just to think about different partners and different announcements that come out, just trying to understand how it's all interwoven. My next question, just on the active safety awards, you quote about $900 million, looks like annualizing that you're probably flat year-over-year. Are you seeing that from just premium luxury, are you seeing more mass market OEMs, and what's the pace of adoption to really once you have a product how long does it take for that OEM to validated it to then put it straight into their products out on the road in the...
Joe Massaro:
Well, it depends on the product, it depends on the OE, active safety penetration is across the board with OEs.
David Tamberrino:
Yes.
Joe Massaro:
So luxury, as well as mass market, I guess, we'll differentiate as to the level of active safety's solutions. But every one, every OE is putting ADAS solutions on their cars. As it relates from award to validation and putting on a vehicle, I would say it's - in that space its averaging two years maybe three. But there are - the reason, the two year with customers that we have existing active safety business with, and it's rather penetration of their fleet. The three years are those OEs that either we don't have active safety business with or we do. And then maybe a new perception system or more advanced perception system and you're going through testing and vehicle validation.
David Tamberrino:
Got it. Thank you very helpful.
Joe Massaro:
Thank you.
Kevin Clark:
Thanks, Dave.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of David Lim with Wells Fargo Securities.
David Lim:
Good morning everyone.
Kevin Clark:
Good morning, Dave.
David Lim:
So the question I have is on electrification. Relative to maybe one quarter or maybe two quarters ago Kevin, do you see like a massive acceleration in maybe RFQs for electrified vehicles. And having said that, what is your thought on maybe 2020 or 2025 electrification take rates? I know you mentioned I think $40 million or so a little earlier in the call.
Kevin Clark:
Yes, I don't think we've seen an acceleration over a couple of quarters. I think relative to a year or so ago we've seen a ramp up in high-voltage RFQs out of our customers really across all regions. So I'd say there is a much more concerted effort on the OE side to have a broad portfolio of high-voltage vehicles. I think as Joe mentioned last year our high-voltage revenues increased over 50% and this year our outlook is over 60% and we see that quite frankly for the foreseeable future from a revenue standpoint. And as you look at bookings, bookings have been extremely strong. And book-to-bill ratio for us on high-voltage has been two to three times revenues. So it's something that we believe is real. We believe it's something that although there's a lot of talk about it in China we're seeing that growth, but we're also seeing growth in Europe as well as North America. And we think it's going to translate into significant revenue.
Joe Massaro:
Yes David, we use from a share perspective and just what's happening in the market we've been keyed of that 2025 IHS data for about the past 1.5 year. We think that's a good - it's a good time period. It's a good proxy. And I think David over that to support Kevin's point over the past year they've moved there what I'll call electrified powertrain penetration up from about 25% of production to 35% of production BEB from 5% to north of 10%. So that tends to be our guidepost. And I would say what we're seeing today would support an increase in that outlook in 2025 which they've reflected.
David Lim:
Great. Thanks. And just two more. On the functional safety standpoint, a lot of the startups autonomous vehicle companies from at least what we're hearing are just trying to put the technology together and thinking about functional safety sort of in a retroactive manner where they will design that later. Can you sort of talk about your functional safety and how that's designed in at the very beginning. And how easy is it to retrofit vehicles with autonoumous capabilities on a volume basis? And a follow up to that in my last question would be where are you guys from a radar technology standpoint. And can we see a moment in time where radar could actually displace LiDAR technologies? Thank you.
Kevin Clark:
So it's Kevin. Let me start with the last. There are a number of questions, David.
David Lim:
Sorry, yes. Sir, just wanted to sneak it in as quickly.
Kevin Clark:
So listen it there some longer answers than others. Listen as it relates to radar as you know we've been in the radar business for a really long time. And we're working very aggressively to continue to optimize and enhance short medium and long-term radar not necessarily, so that it replaces Leddar. But maybe as you think about autonomous vehicle, you are less dependent on Leddar. So I think if you talk to our tech guys today if we have Glenn [ph] here, the reiterate in the fact, that we think it's important that you have three perception systems that you need the redundancy. But there are multiple ways to skin the cat as it relates to those perception systems. But we are very focused and we have an initiative to enhance radar so that an automated driving vehicle is less dependent upon high cost Leddar.
David Lim:
Got you.
Kevin Clark:
As it relates to functional safety listen we think and I think our industry believes that's the difference between those of us who've come out of the auto industry in been in it for a long period of time and those who have not. There a part of the equation as it relates to solving the autonomous driving question is the software and algorithm tied to the ADAS stack but that's only a part of the overall solution right. And where players like ourselves and we think obviously we're more uniquely positioned than anyone else. Who have the controller experience, who have the architecture experience, who have the software experience and have the automotive experience. We have the ability to approach these challenges and these problems concurrently with the software solution. And that's really why two years ago we kicked off the heavy effort the concerted effort as it relates to smart architecture smart vehicle architecture in the vehicle. It was really how do we bring together the perception systems the software systems. And the hardware systems together to develop solutions that ultimately optimize our level for autonomous driving vehicle and between now and then quite frankly enhancing the active safety experience of your competition business all of those sorts of things for the OE customers. So we would say if you don't have experience across all those it is a big challenge. We would say that we're better positioned than others and we're working really, really hard at it. So I think that's an answer to at least two of your questions. I don't know if there's a couple more in there as well.
David Lim:
No you answered it. And it's apparent that Aptiv's mode just becomes deeper and deeper. Thank you.
Kevin Clark:
Thank you, David.
Joe Massaro:
Kevin, we have time for one more question.
Operator:
Our final question comes from the line of Itay Michaeli with Citi.
Itay Michaeli:
Great. Thank you.
Kevin Clark:
Good morning Itay.
Itay Michaeli:
Good morning. Thanks and congrats. Just a first question on the quarter going back to Slide 15 on Signal and Power Solutions, so I think the label and you mentioned this in your remarks too you have stronger growth in North America despite the past and volatility. I'm just kind of a wondering what drove the upside in North America relative to expectations back in January kind of internally?
Joe Massaro:
In North America specifically the launches we had some Q4 launches Itay that is we talked about launches just you launch a product Don. December one and that revenue curve over the first two or three months is it's a little hard to forecast until everybody starts getting into rhythm. So some of that hits right, we've got some launches on some new truck platforms even beyond the T1 SX that we're delivering some revenue in the quarter and will continue to do so for the year. So as I mentioned, it was just more I would say the timing of when some of those started to hit what I'll call for a short that maybe what we had expected in the original guidance.
Itay Michaeli:
That's helpful and then going back to the lift commercialization any update on one, with the vehicles be operating in a kind of a fixed root similar to what we experienced at CES? And is the plan still to remove the driver by the end of 2019?
Kevin Clark:
Well, this is Kevin. So yes, definitely plan to remove the driver by the end of 2019. That may or may not be part of the lift initiative quite frankly. It is a point to point system. It is similar to what we had at CES although broader and will continue to get broader, so more locations, multiple locations, more vehicles.
Itay Michaeli:
Great. That's very helpful.
Kevin Clark:
All right.
Itay Michaeli:
Thank you.
Kevin Clark:
All right. Bye, Itay.
Joe Massaro:
All right, operator. Thank you very much. We appreciate everyone's time.
Operator:
You're welcome. This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect, and have a wonderful day.
Executives:
Kevin Clark – President and Chief Executive Officer Joe Massaro – Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer Elena Rosman – Vice President of Investor Relations
Analysts:
Brian Johnson – Barclays Capital, Inc. Chris McNally – Evercore ISI David Leiker – Baird Joseph Spak – RBC Capital Markets Rod Lache – Deutsche Bank Emmanuel Rosner – Guggenheim John Murphy – Bank of America-Merrill Lynch David Tamberrino – Goldman Sachs David Lim – Wells Fargo Itay Michaeli – Citi Steven Fox – Cross Research LLC Colin Langan – UBS
Operator:
Good morning. My name is Jamie, and I'll be your conference facilitator. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Aptiv Q4 2017 Earnings Conference Call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speakers' remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions]. I would now like to turn the call over to Elena Rosman, Vice President of Investor Relations at Aptiv. Elena, you may now begin your conference.
Elena Rosman:
Thank you. Good morning, Jamie, and thank you everyone for joining Aptiv's fourth quarter 2017 earnings conference call. To follow along with today's presentation, our slides can be found at ir.aptiv.com. And consistent with prior calls, today's review of our actual and forecasted financials exclude restructuring other special items and will address the continuing operations of Aptiv. The reconciliation between GAAP and non-GAAP measures is included in the back of today's presentation and the press release. In addition, the appendix also includes a number of supplemental tables which provide the historical financials for Aptiv. Please see Slide 2 for a disclosure on forward-looking statements, which reflect Aptiv's current view of future financial performance, which may be materially different from our actual performance for reasons that we cite in our Form 10-K and other SEC filings. Joining us today will be Kevin Clark, Aptiv's President and CEO; and Joe Massaro, CFO and Senior Vice President. As seen on Slide 3, Kevin will provide a strategic update for the business, and then Joe will cover the financial results and our outlook for 2018 in more detail. With that, I would like to turn the call over to Kevin Clark.
Kevin Clark:
Thank you, Elena. Good morning everyone. Thanks for joining us. This is our first quarterly earnings call as Aptiv, and I'm excited to report a very strong finish to 2017. Highlights for the year included; we exceeded our financial commitments, 2017 revenue, operating profit and earnings per share all finished above the guidance we provided at our Investor Day. We completed the spin-off of Delphi Technologies ahead of schedule and received strong customer endorsement of our more focused portfolio of advanced technologies, reflected by the record bookings of $19.3 billion. We made significant progress positioning the Company for the future, through the acquisition of Movimento and nuTonomy, organic and inorganic investments, and the expansion of our automated driving pilots around the globe. In summary, our 2017 performance reflected very strong execution by the entire team. We'll dive a little deeper on a number of key milestones on Slide 4. 2017 marked another year of successfully executing our strategy. We continue to strengthen our operating capabilities which translated into a total revenue and earnings growth and exceeding our commitments to shareholders. Sales increased 5%, that's 4 points over market, operating income increased 7% excluding investments in mobility and services. We acquired Movimento and nuTonomy and made organic investments in our mobility and services businesses that strengthen our competitive position. In addition, minority investments in our otonomo, Valens, LeddarTech and Innoviz enhanced our technology portfolio and helped unlock new commercial opportunities. This past year success is in large part the result of the strong foundation that we've built with leadership position in fast-growing technology areas including active safety, where bookings totaled $3.7 billion, that's 2.5 times greater than 2016 bookings or $1.4 billion, so reporting greater than 40% forecasted revenue growth in the years to come. 2017 active safety revenues actually increased 66% to $600 million. Infotainment, user experience bookings totaled $1.5 billion, reflecting the timing of lumpy customer awards and revenues increased 15% reaching $1.6 billion. Our strong backlog of infotainments and user experience awards, totaling over $6.5 billion over the last three years, gives us confidence that the pace of revenue growth will continue at roughly 15% over the next several years. High voltage electrification bookings increased 12% totaling $1.4 billion. And 2017 revenues increased 50% to roughly $300 million and are expected to nearly double in 2018 to over $550 million. In summary, our strong 2017 operating and financial performance gives us further confidence in our outlook for 2018 and beyond. The core competencies that are necessary to succeed today are the building blocks required to solve mobility's toughest challenges in the future and we believe we have all the necessary competencies. Turning to Slide 5. As I mentioned Aptiv has just been built on a strong foundation of consistently delivering automotive grade advanced technologies. As the vehicle is increasingly become a software-defined platform, we've adapted our portfolio of technologies and capabilities to meet the demand for more complex software development and systems integration expertise and as a result, Aptiv is uniquely positioned to provide the end-to-end solution required to commercialize mobility. We have over 6,000 engineers focused on software development, shipping over 40 billion lines of code daily increasing to over 150 billion lines of code in 2020. Vehicles need more computing power than ever before to enable advanced vehicle features including increased levels of active safety and connectivity, and this increased need for high-speed computing platforms sits right in our sweet spot allowing Aptiv to leverage its Signal and Power Solutions that enable more connected vehicle content. Managing complexity and optimizing vehicle architecture to increase efficiency and maximize performance is where we integrate systems and we enable new mobility. And lastly, vehicle connectivity and data are driving a significant change in the automotive industry. And Aptiv solutions combined edge computing, over the air analytics, cyber security and a data marketplace to fully integrate a vehicle into the ecosystem, unlocking the cost reduction opportunities and new revenue models from both our customers and for Aptiv. All this requires tremendous execution capabilities, and this is where we excel. Aptiv is uniquely positioned as the bridge, connecting our customers to more advanced technologies. Coupled with our systems integration expertise, we're making the future of mobility real. Turning to the next slide, just as we rebranded the company under Aptiv, a name that represents our knowledge, adaptiveness and drive, we've chosen new segment names that better reflect their capabilities and the role each has to play in the future of mobility. These new segment names do not change the overall operating or financial composition of the segment themselves. Starting with Advanced Safety and User Experience on the left, formally Electronics and Safety, we sometimes refer to the technologies and solutions in this segment as the brain in the vehicle. We're focusing our deep systems expertise in software and central compute platforms to deliver advanced safety, user experience and automated driving systems enabling more connected content in the vehicle. This segment includes our active safety, infotainment user experience, body and security and connected services product lines. Going forward, the mobility and services group which is being led by Glen De Vos includes our automated driving software businesses, Ottomatika and nuTonomy as well as our dealer services businesses Control-Tec and Movimento. Moving to the right side of the chart, Signal and Power Solutions formerly Electrical and Electronic Architecture, we sometimes refer to the technology and solutions in this segment as the nervous system of the vehicle. This segment's solution reflects increase in significance of next-gen architectures requiring high-speed data and high power electrical distribution to enable the necessary technologies for the future of mobility. This segment continues to include our electrical distribution business along with our engineered components business, which includes connectors and cable management products and has approximately $1 billion of non-automotive – automotive related revenue. Again, no change in the composition at the segment level, however it's opposite of all the rebranding of our segments more accurately reflect the role each plays in solving mobility's toughest challenges. Moving to Slide 7. We've amassed some of the most experience engineering talent in the world, and as a result, we sit at the forefront of new opportunities to enable and monetize future mobility. Starting with automated driving, as we look forward, we have a significant opportunity to monetize our system and technology capabilities providing mobility players with and advance Level 4, Level 5 system like those who are currently operating in every major region of the world. The development work we're doing with several customers in smart cities will result in more than 150 cars down the road by the end of this year, accumulating almost 2 million miles of experience. And the work we're doing today on Level 4 and Level 5 systems for mobility providers is gaining leverage in the Level 2 and Level 3 solutions for our traditional OEM customers. And that fact's reflected in the $3.7 billion of active safety bookings last year. Further, we've made significant progress in the connected services market with our acquisitions of Control-Tec and Movimento. And by deploying connectivity solutions at all our relevant product by 2020, we get significant data monetization opportunities ahead as the capabilities to get the right data, effectively analyze it and translate that data into valuable information for our customers increases. Joe will cover in more detail how we're funding a portion of these investments through ongoing productivity gains in our base business. And as I mentioned, our advance technology development work continues to drive new conquest wins today as we help solve some of our customer's biggest challenges. Turning to Slide 8. In 2017, Aptiv booked a record $19.3 billion in new business awards reflecting $7 billion of bookings in the fourth quarter. As you can see on the right side of the chart, we had significant wins in each business in the regions, including a conquest infotainment award with a Chinese multinational customer, a conquest active safety award with an OEM alliance, another example of a high-volume customer award enhancing our overall market position, a high-voltage mobile charger award from a leading North American electric vehicle manufacturer and an architectural award for BYDs high-volume SUV platform in China. Together these wins reinforces Aptiv's leadership position in enabling next-generation vehicle features and functionality, and is further evidenced by our strategic wins with BMW in the quarter, highlighted on Slide 9. Building on our strategic relationship as well as the automated driving partnership formed last year, the teams have been working closely to enhance BMW's functionality, leveraging Aptiv's leading portfolio of Advanced Safety and User Experience technologies. As a result, BMW selected our next-gen radar and high-end vision sensor suite powered by our ADAS multi-domain controller, the most advanced centralized super compute platform in production. In addition, we are selected to provide our patented multi-layer display technology which we acquired with PureDepth acquisition just two years ago, becoming the industry's first high-definition reconfigurable 3D display in production, transforming the overall in-vehicle experience. These technologies were on display at CES and is evidenced here are in high-demand. Moving to Slide 10. This was our absolute best year at CES yet. As the only company offering automated rides on the streets of Las Vegas to the General public, we conducted over 400 rides leveraging the LYFT Mobility on Demand network marking our first real-life application of technology that we've been demonstrating at CES for several years. Feedback is overwhelmingly positive, as we operated 99% of the time in autonomous mode while the general public rated the experience a near perfect score. Customer and government interest reflects a meaningful shift in tone and pace of technology deployment, conversations with customers underscoring the importance of an integrated and an optimized approach to vehicle architecture, consistent with what I talked about earlier. These same conversations reinforce the increasing importance of the fully connected user experience in more automated vehicle, underscoring the fact that in addition to the development of the automated driving software staff, that an integrated and optimized architecture and enhanced used experience are critical to the successful commercialization of Level 4 and Level 5 automated vehicles. And we've positioned Aptiv as the only end-to-end system provider of the integrated brain and nervous system. So, with that, I'll now turn it over to Joe to walk you through the financials and our outlook for 2018 before summarizing at the end and opening it up for Q&A.
Joe Massaro:
Thanks Kevin. Good morning everyone. Starting with the recap of the full year financials on Slide 11. Results were ahead of the guidance we provided at Investor Day with revenue of $12.9 billion, up 5% reflects a 1% market growth we delivered on our commitment of mid-single digit growth above market. Operating income was $1.6 billion with operating margins of 12.4% consistent with what we shared with you at our September Investor Day and we've taken to account the lower flow through from a stronger euro in the quarter. Earnings per share of $4.64 were up 10% and operating cash flow of $1.1 billion which included the $310 million unsecured credit resettlement and approximately $80 million of spin-related costs. Excluding these items, operating cash flow grew faster than operating income primarily driven by improvements in working capital. Turning to Slide 12. The fourth quarter was incredibly busy as we successfully executed the spin of the Powertrain Segment, had near record launch activity in new bookings and delivered ahead of expectations on revenue and operating income. Aptiv revenues of $3.4 billion, up 4%, revolver implied outlook is favorable FX and stronger growth in Europe and China more than offset North American passenger car weakness which was down 17% in the quarter. And underlying global vehicle production was up 0.5%, slightly better than expected. We had good volume growth year-over-year, driven by double digit gains in Advanced Safety and User Experience, despite the unusually strong fourth quarter in China in 2016. Slide 13 walks our operating income and EPS performance in the quarter adjusted for the sale of Mechatronics. Again, these numbers reflect the continuing operations of Aptiv following the spin and are better than we anticipated back in September when we provided a standalone pro-forma financials. Operating income was $450 million, up 3% as revenue growth and operational performance more than offset unfavorable price and the impact of higher mobility investments spending, which we had indicated would ramp over the course of the year. Earnings per share were $1.28 and reflect and $0.11 headwind year-over-year on tax as last year's rate reflected a tax benefit of restructuring actions in the prior year quarter. Due to our extra tax, earnings per share growth would have been in line with operating income. Let's move into the segments. Advanced Safety and User Experience revenues grew 19% in the quarter, consistent with the full year driven by active safety growth of 69% reflecting continued new launches and increased penetration. Infotainment and user experience revenues were up 8% in quarter even while lapping strong prior year revenue growth and launch activity. Both Active safety and infotainment are expected to continue their strong pace of double digit growth in 2018. Operating margins expanded 290 basis points in the quarter excluding the impact of our mobility investments driven by strong volume growth and the lapping of last year's warranty items. Including these mobility investments, margins were down 20 basis points versus Q4 2016. Our planned increase mobility investments totaled approximately $30 million in the quarter and $50 million for the year. Going forward, we'll provide this level of detail to better reflect improvement margin profile of the underlying business, showing performance both with and without the impact of these investments. And as a reminder, we remain on track with our plan to spend approximately $140 million in mobility and services in 2018, including the addition of nuTonomy and consistent with what we guided late last year. In summary, the Advanced Safety and User Experience segment is well positioned for continued strong growth and operating leverage in 2018 and beyond. Turning to Signal and Power Solutions on the next slide. Revenues were down 1% in the quarter and roughly flat for the year driven by the decrease in North American passenger car production, which as I mentioned was 17% in the quarter, 14% down for the year, consistent with our outlook. It's important to note the slowdown in North American passenger car sales including last year's cancelations by (SCA) of several passenger car platforms primarily impacted our Signal and Power Solutions segment. Operating margins were down 70 basis points in quarter as strong operational performance was offset by last year's exceptionally strong fourth quarter performance in China. Full year margins were up 10 basis points, a testament to how our operating model supports margin expansion even in the face of lower North American pass car volumes and the unfavorable year-over-year China comps. Heading into 2018, we expect mid-single digit revenue growth driven by new launches and high voltage sales growth yielding stronger operating performance and higher margins. Slide 16, turning to our expectations for 2018. No change from what we shared at our Investor Conference in September. For the year, we expect revenues to be up 5% to 6% with production expected to be flat to up 1% in line with our financial framework of mid-single digit growth over market. From a segment perspective, we expect approximately 10% growth in Advanced Safety and User Experience and mid-single digit growth in Signal and Power solutions. Operating margin are expected to be in the range of 12.6% to 12.8%, up 20 to 40 basis points. We're also investing an incremental $80 million in mobility, as we remain relentless on operating performance and improving our cost structure. Excluding Mobility Investments, both segments will expand margins in 2018. This is expected to result in earnings per share in the range of $5 to $5.20 per share, up 10% at the midpoint with share count flat year-over-year. And operating cash flow is expected to be at approximately $1.6 billion, up double digit over 2017 and normalized for the unsecured credit risk settlement. CapEx will be roughly $750 million for the year. So the first quarter, revenues are expected to be up 3% at the midpoint or 4 points above market on production declines of roughly 1%. We expect 70 to 90 basis points of operating margin expansion in the first quarter reflecting improved operating performance as well as having lapped higher warranty expense last year. And EPS is expected in the range of $1.17 to $1.22, up 10% at the midpoint despite a headwind from a more normalized tax rate of 15% to 16%. Turning to the next side, as always our team remains laser-focused on improving our cost structure, both as a means to fund incremental growth investment and continue our strong track record of margin expansion and earnings growth. What we've shown here in the last is a walk from our pre-spin to post spin margins for 2017 which came in right in-line with what we targeted back in September with stronger operating performance despite the margin dilutive impact of a stronger euro. Moving to the middle, you see the margin walk for 2018 with 20 to 40 basis points expansion, consistent with our long-term outlook as benefits from productivity initiatives and operating performance are partially offset by our mobility investments. Finally, moving to the right, we expect 100 basis points of margin expansion between 2017 and 2020, and the traded cost will be substantially eliminated by the end of 2019. And the adoption of key growth technologies drives faster growth and greater operating margin expansion out to 2022, leveraging the benefits of our industry-leading footprint, lower corporate overheads and a more efficient operation overall. Turning to the next slide, our business model is enabling us to convert more income to cash and as cash flow compounds double digits, there is no shortage of attractive deployment opportunities. I want to reiterate, Aptiv will continue to have a disciplined and well balanced approach to capital allocation, similar to what you saw from Delphi. We are focused on reinvesting in our business, both organically and inorganically while maintaining our investment grade rating, paying a competitive dividend. On M&A, we remain focused on accretive bolt-ons similar to HellermannTyton, which provided attractive end market diversification and technology acquisitions focused on our mobility and services group, where we have the opportunity to significantly accelerate the commercialization of new technologies. In both cases, the pipeline remains full and we hope to share more with you over the course of the year. And to the extent we had excess cash we will be opportunistic in returning it to shareholders. In summary, we believe effective capital deployment is a major differentiator for Aptiv and an important part of our overall investment thesis. I'd like to turn the call back to Kevin for his closing remarks.
Kevin Clark:
Thanks Joe. We'll wrap up on Slide 19. 2017 was another outstanding year. We exceeded our financial commitments and executed the spin-off of our Powertrain Segment flawlessly and ahead of schedule, all while enhancing our portfolio of advanced technologies with the acquisitions of Movimento and nuTonomy and investments in Valens, otonomo, Innoviz and LeddarTech, all which will serve to enhance our competitive position as the demand for ADAS and automated mobility solutions ramps up. Looking ahead to 2018, as Joe just mentioned, our outlook includes mid-single digit revenue growth above market, reflecting the strength of our technology portfolio and execution capabilities and margin expansion in line with the long-term framework we provided back in September with 20 to 40 basis points expansion while continuing to invest for future growth, all which results in double digit earnings and cash flow growth and the ability to sustain long-term shareholder value creation through efficient disciplined capital deployment. So, with that, we'll open up the line for questions operator. Thanks you.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions]. Our first question comes from the line of Brian Johnson with Barclays. Your line is open.
Brian Johnson:
Yeah. Good morning. A couple of questions. You are first in what we used to call EA in undated signal, can you maybe talk about the new bookings and also just a revenue outlook. Talk about the different trends within which one might call traditional wiring harness and connector business where it might be a new launch, but the platforms aren't radically different versus some of the more advanced data intensive. And in particular, is the core traditional wiring harness business, are you booking less there, when you got like the price or the commodity passwords or other commercial terms?
Kevin Clark:
Yeah Brian, so it's Kevin. I will start and then Joe will follow-up. So, a couple of trends that relate to electrical architecture and it relates to the transition to what we sometimes refer to as is a more sophisticated or smarter architecture. Obviously, more business booked – more business being done with the traditional automotive OEs that have a – let's call a higher component of technology in their overall portfolio. So, who are pushing FP up, the furthest ends of ADAS today, so whether it would be advanced Level 2 approaching Level 3, advanced infotainment, user experience systems, and increased vehicle connectivity. Most of that activity played frankly is in Europe. Second and along a similar lines, but consistently happening both in the North American markets, the European market and beginning in the Asian market is more KSK harnesses which are customized harnesses which are affectively built to match the VIN number and the specific outfitting of the vehicle which is a much more – which is a much more complex architecture and even more complex supply chain as you can imagine. The third piece I would say, there are a few of the what I would call the newer OEs that we've been deeply engaged in more active as it relates to clean sheet of paper architecture and discussions about how we'd optimize that and how you bring that into production sooner rather than later. And then lastly, I apologize for rambling, there are number of other OEs that I think it's approaching close to double digit where we're spending time talking about that clean sheet architecture of the vehicle, but doing it over a longer period of time, a lengthier period of time. Joe?
Joe Massaro:
Brian, within that business, you know I think couple of things to know about that business. One, we obviously – and we've talked a lot about this year. I think the business did a really good job weathering the North American pass car downturn while expanding margins. We see that flipping next year, so that business returns to call it mid-single digit growth. Within there, we also continue to see strong growth in HellermannTyton both on their industrial business as well as their auto. I would expect them to continue with double digits. They have between 10% or 11% growth per year since we bought them and we see that continuing. So, really, I think the story for next year is really just lapsing that, that passenger car volume in North America and you will see it return to mid-single digits.
Brian Johnson:
Okay. Second question is more kind of longer term strategic. With the great progress particularly on the ADAS and kind of the advanced electronic side with BMW, you know, can you maybe help us especially in light of all the acquisitions you put into your effort, kind of where the Intel Mobileye partnership you have is, how it relates to what you are doing in the economy and what we saw in automatic and what we saw in Vegas? And then BMW's own joint venture with Intel Mobileye, where of course Fiat Chrysler has become one of their partner, so, just are those kind of moving on parallel tracks, separate but related, sort of the same thing, or how should we think about that?
Kevin Clark:
There is obviously a lot of activity around autonomous driving. So, let me start with – we continue to progress with our partners Mobileye and Intel in the development of CSLP platform that will be commercially available in 2019. So, let's start with that. Where we are having discussions with other OEs, whether it's their interest in the CSLP platform, or is there interest in doing you know some portion of that activity on their own, like the BMW partnership. We're doing all we can as you can imagine from a financial standpoint, not to recreate, but to reuse the technology and the capabilities that we've established. I can't get into specifics at this point in time, so some OEs want more of that, some want less of that. I think there is a direct correlation between their level of internal technical capabilities what they've had historically and how strategic they view that automated driving stack to be.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Chris McNally with Evercore ISI. Your line is open.
Chris McNally:
Good morning team and congrats on the successful spin. Just two follow-up questions on autonomous from me. So, the first one on the robo-taxi front, Kevin as you referenced, you know CS and LYFT was a big positive and you mentioned 2019 as the commercial test deployment in a city. It seems pretty significant you know given that Aptiv will add a lot more automotive grade experience to what nuTonomy could do by themselves. Could you just elaborate and give a little bit more details, how many vehicles, is this, is this highway travel, will LYFT be contributing significant R&D, anything you can add around some of that – the details around the 2019 program.
Kevin Clark:
Yeah, well, listen the 2019 program relates to Aptiv and we're in discussions with multiple players in the Mobility on Demand space as well as cities. With respect to deploying vehicles at Level 4 levels, initially in late 2018, early 2019, by the end of this year, we'll have roughly 150 vehicles plus on the road. I think I mentioned traveling roughly 2 million miles during the year and we'll be doing that through multiple partnership whether they Mobility on Demand players, or they be direct agreements with cities. Now, one thing is important, I think underscore – you've heard Joe and myself say this several times. We're not in the fleet management business. We're not a mobility provider, so it's our objective to partner with others who are. At the same time, it's really important to advance the technology and quite frankly to monetize the capabilities to get as many vehicles out on the road as we can near term. Well those are vehicles we're paying for, our partner is paying for, to enhance our capabilities improve our capabilities.
Chris McNally:
That's great and just a quick follow-up to Brian's questions on the production car side, I think previously when you first sort of launched CSLP, you mentioned that, if an OEM were to sign up to the program in somewhat of a turnkey solution, it would aid them in getting to market you know with an L4 type car and you know maybe three years, I think you talked about 2019 as the first year. Is it fair to say that some of those discussions have happened? You just can't really announce formal awards. I just think that the investment community sort of was prepped for you know some sort of big award announcements over the last year and that just may not be the case, and maybe discussions that are going behind the scenes, just wanted to get a little bit more color on the award process.
Kevin Clark:
Sure. So, several of those conversations have happened and are happening. As you can imagine from an OE standpoint, there is a strategic aspect to this, there is risk aspect to this, there is a product portfolio aspect to this. Then in reality, it's pretty complex and there is a business mile aspect. So, we continue to be engaged with a number of OEs about both the entire CSLP platform as well as portion of the CSLP platform. We've always said we are about giving our customers what they want. And the benefit of having the platform is for those who don't have the capabilities and want to move more quickly, we can provide more full turnkey solution. On the flipside for those who want a portion, having the ability or the understanding of the whole system allows us to enhance the parts. So, I say that's one. The second thing Chris, one of the things if we've concluded, and it's for obvious reasons that you are going to see the acceleration of autonomous driving with the Mobility on Demand players quite frankly sooner, than you're going to see it with the traditional OEs. And that's purely economic. The cost of an automated driving system is today relatively expensive and the economic are justified by the mobility players to the extent they can either get the driver out of the car or they can have the driver doing things other than just transporting passengers or goods.
Joe Massaro:
Hey Chris, it's Joe. The one other thing I'd add and we've talked about this before particularly on the OE side. As the conversations have evolved, the other thing which we think is very positive from our perspective is they're now becoming discussions around how to move from active safety, Level 2, into Level 3, into Level 4. So they are becoming sort of technology roadmap discussions, which given by 2020 will have over 20 or just about 20 active safety customers providing Level 2 and have the capabilities to do Level 3 and Level 4. We certainly think sort of the technology continuing discussions are going to accrue to our benefit as well.
Chris McNally:
That's great. And it allows for a sticky customer as well. Appreciate the color guys.
Operator:
Your next question comes from David Leiker with Baird. Your line is open.
David Leiker:
I just want to follow-up on the conversations just having, as you look out, once upon a time there was view we got from Level 1 to 2 to 3 to 4 to 5, and then all of a sudden everybody jumped to Level 4 and 5, and now it seems that Level 3 is becoming more prominent. How internally do you manage that technology roadmap? Are those separate businesses? Are they are parallel paths? How do you manage that?
Kevin Clark:
The answer is a little bit of both. So, our approach is that the Level 4 and Level 5 is actually separate, that fits in our mobility group with [indiscernible] and with our economists driving team from Ottomatika and nuTonomy and they are focused on really Level 4, Level 5 of high solutions, that's where all their focus is. However, we have a system setup where they're able to affectively share their advancements and algorithms and technology with our traditional ADAS business that resides in our Advanced Safety and User Experience segment today. That is having discussions with traditional OE customers principally around Level 2, Level 3 and some around Level 4, but there are separate organizations with the ability to share technology. And the reason they is separate is one to make sure that we are focused on advancing that Level 4 and Level 5 capabilities. And then two is, I mentioned Dave is the mobility on demand players today are moving much faster. And we want to make sure that we have a new organization that effectively focusing on delivering that technology to their customer group.
David Leiker:
Yeah. That's two different customer bases there. As we looked out, I don't know that's 2020 is the timeframe, but if you give me, what would be your guess in 2025 about mix for you in terms of revenue contribution between that Level 3, 3 plus like ADAS safety type incremental approach versus the mobility on demand Level 4, 5?
Joe Massaro:
Yeah. David, what we are seeing, so we've been out with our target is $1 billion in revenue related to automated driving/mobility right to services to come around interrupt, that number is $1 billion. The way we see it sliding out right now it's about 50-50. So 50% of that are coming from Level 3 as we migrate our Level 2 plus business in a Level 3 opportunities with ease, and then target $0.5 billion of revenue coming out of mobility on demand group.
David Leiker:
And then active safety underneath that or 1, 2?
Joe Massaro:
Active safety by then will be well north of $2 billion probably close to $2.5 billion plus of business.
David Leiker:
And that's just Level 1 and 2 or is that include 3?
Joe Massaro:
That's just level of up one and two, that's the existing because.
David Leiker:
Okay. And then just one small item here. As we look at user experience on the infotainment side, strong bookings there, strong rev performance there. If you look at what bookings are being done today within that space. What do you think your market share is in that today versus what it is relative to the business that's being delivered today?
Joe Massaro:
With our market share today relative to what it will be in the future?
David Leiker:
No, no, what it is currently, near your current revenue base your share there, versus the share on what's your bookings are?
Kevin Clark:
David, that's the hard one. Part of the challenge for that space, is you've got some of the cap sitting there with low end audio. I think if you racked it all up and included low end audio where it's probably seven, I think as you start to focus on the really relevant technologies and where this is going well, the audio display is going away. We think the mid systems are going to push their way down. We clearly see ourselves moving in organically into a top five position over the next couple of years. I mean this MLD booking for us it's hundreds of millions of dollars of bookings from an acquisition we did in 2016 for 50 million bucks. The technology is just phenomenal. So again, it's a little bit about how you racking up that market, but if you put the audio in there we're probably further down, but where we want to play clearly targeting the top five and top three position.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Joseph Spak with RBC Capital Markets. Your line is open.
Joseph Spak:
The first question is just a little bit more sort of on 2018, so the 20 to 40 bps of margin expansion in line with what you talked about previously, but it does show a big sequential improvement from the first quarter guide. So, I think some of that is the subsiding of the stranded costs, but I was wondering if you can talk about the other sort of puts and takes through the years and maybe what your commodity outlook is as well?
Joe Massaro:
Yeah. So this is Joe. We've got stranded costs. We're going to lap some warranty in Q1, so that's going to help the Q1 number. But our mission here is to get stranded cost out for all intents and purposes by the end of 2019, so it's a fairly deliberate March. We're started the year with about $90 million as we talked about in September about $80 million to $90 million of stranded costs to get out of the system. So that's where a lot of that comes from. However, we continue to do a really good job on the manufacturing of the material performance side as it relates to continued savings. As we've talked about, you know one of the benefits we are getting here is, are these product lines coming to scale. Things like activate safety getting to $600 million of revenue, it's going to continue to grow at 40%. That adds efficiencies into the manufacturing plants, adds efficiencies into the material buy. Very similar with high voltage electrification, we've got that business growing in $300 million of revenue. It's going to grow well above 50% next year. We've already booked about $1.4 billion this year, so very, very strong bookings to revenues. So those product lines coming to scale help, while we continue to bang away at our overall costs footprint if you will, and again, doing this in light of investing and being able to fund those additional mobility investments. Commodities are pretty straightforward. The 2018 guide adds – not real significant changes in their coppers is the biggest one, but again that's mostly passed through. To the extent, we don't pass through copper, we hedge, so that plays around a bit with the top line, but doesn't really impact performance. And then I think from a currency perspective, the thing we're obviously watching, the guide is got a 1.15 euro in there, which was about our average for 2017. Obviously that looks conservative relative to where we are today, but that's been bouncing around a bit, but we'll continue to watch that. But at this point with where the business is post-spin, their really only focused commodity is copper, mindful of resin pricing, but from an oil perspective, but don't see any challenges there.
Joseph Spak:
That's helpful. And then just back on the autonomous discussion, you guys have talked about a couple of times now some non-traditional customers potentially rising up and then you reiterate there you don't want to be sort of the mobility provider. You want to work with them. But what does that really look like from a, I guess from the actual vehicles perspective? Is it something like you showed at CS or you're retrofitting vehicles or is it working with someone else to design and build those vehicles?
Kevin Clark:
Joe, it is effectively both. I think it's an optimized vehicle. It's both an optimized OE vehicle setup for Level 4 and Level 5 autonomous driving, and then it's what I call a custom bespoke vehicle that can transport more passengers and has a more fully integrated architecture, ADAS stack or automated driving stack as well as user experience capability. So we are actually working on both.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Rod Lache with Deutsche Bank. Your line is open.
Rod Lache:
I'll ask a couple of things. One is, obviously you ended 2017 with a very strong cash position at $1.6 billion and you alluded to a pretty solid pipeline of M&A opportunities. Can you just remind us at a very high level, how should we be thinking about what your cash target is? So, if we are thinking out a year or so, what do you kind of managing that down to between the various uses of cash?
Joe Massaro:
You know what, to run the business call it $300 million to $400 million of cash, right. So, clearly the cash balance is strong. As I mentioned in my prepared comments, capital allocation philosophy hasn't changed. We do have a good looking deal funnel at the moment. There is a lot of things on both the Signal and Power Solutions side that we are looking at. And I think as well as on the technology side. Those really will unfold over the next couple of quarters. And again, I think we'll build the transactions like HellermannTyton bolt-on type transactions that both deepens the capabilities of the Signal and Power business within auto, but also look at some adjacent market opportunity. Things like PureDepth as we mentioned, that's been a complete home run as it release to the bookings with BMW on that technology, so things like that. And to the extend we get to the point where later in the year those haven't materialized, the target control timing. We understand the importance of returning cash to shareholders. The guide only includes at this point keeping share count flat. So we won't allow creep obviously, so we'll be repurchasing to avoid creep. And anything incremental will really be based on as we get further through the year on what we see from actually materializing from a funnel perspective.
Rod Lache:
So just to clarify, you would think or suggests to us that we should be thinking to exit the year at $300 million to $400 million , so you have the $1.6 billion plus to free cash flow that you generate this year to deploy between M&A and share repurchases in that kind of thing. Is that correct?
Joe Massaro:
I don't want to call a number that specific. The types of transactions we look at take time, particularly in that electrical architecture space. We are looking at a lot of what I'll call midsized bolt-on. They are typically family-owned businesses. They take some time to cultivate. So I wouldn't want to be on a record of saying, we're going to have it all bundled up by 12/31/2018, but actually think about Aptiv capital deployment hasn't changed from Delphi. Long-term, we need – on average we need $300 million to $400 million of cash and we are going to work really hard to try to find smart uses for that cash.
Rod Lache:
And just switching gears, the shift from passenger car has actually been a tailwind for the industry broadly is given return mix, but a bit of a headwind for you guys in part because of the Fiat Chrysler situation. Can you give us a sense of what your North American passenger car exposure is now kind of on a run rate basis? And is that still something that you would put in a risk bucket?
Kevin Clark:
FDA we knew about going into the year, GM took a lot out of pass car. That was really what we were working through during the year. That business continues to be or looks to be about 65% SUV and truck in North America, about 35% pass car. As we book business, as we bid on business, we are very mindful of what pass car platforms if any quite honestly we want to be on. So we look to continue to bid – that certainly there are some that distinguishes himself from others. But it's certainly something we watch carefully and are managing through. I think given what happened last year at this point, do we have a big risk associated with it. Next year no, we really see ourselves lapping that, but it's something where we'll continue to manage through and quite honestly it's – again that business – North American pass car probably took 30 to 40 basis points of margin out of Signal and Power Distribution in 2017 and the team was on it. That business was able to expand margins 10% even without 10 basis points, even with that headwind. So we are laser focused on it and we'll continue to manage the business to the extent it comes up short.
Rod Lache:
Great. And just lastly, could you just talk to us about how you are thinking about conversion on volume going forward as you are currently configured the 21% that you did in the quarter, it's a little bit lower than what the prior configuration was? And for the full year, how should we be thinking about the cost items and saving items like performance and depreciation versus your pro forma 2017?
Kevin Clark:
Yeah. So I think, we used to always talk about volume flowing at 18% to 22% as Delphi HoldCo. I think it's there with Aptiv, we're in the higher end of that range, so call it 20% to 22%. As we see volume flow, I think the one other comment I'll make is you know we are running this business for – from flat to up slight production volume. So when we see, when we see things like we did in China in Q4 2016, will flow higher. And our goal is when we see things like North American pass cars to be able to continue to expand margins, but as a rule of thumb, I'd go to the higher end of the Delphi HoldCo range and call it 20 to 22.
Rod Lache:
Okay. And performance in cost items like depreciation versus the pro forma is the run rate that we are observing here something that would be sustained into 2018?
Joe Massaro:
Let me talk about, you know some accelerated bit, just given we buy some of the warranty and then get [indiscernible] take us through the detail there, but I'd be focused. I think that would be mindful to tell the thing we're stranded…
Operator:
Your next question comes from John Murphy with Bank of America-Merrill Lynch. Your line is open.
John Murphy:
Good morning guys. If I could, just ask you slightly longer term question in it, it's little bit theoretical. But I mean granted, and you guys have been talking about as we see more L4 an L5 autonomous drive vehicles being developed even on new architecture. Just, [indiscernible] you think it's sort of brains and veins and everything that you guys supply to the automakers. What sort of a magnitude of increase in potential content per vehicle there could be? I mean is it kind of like a 50% number, or is this the kind of thing where it could be a factor of two to three times higher potential contact for you guys.
Kevin Clark:
I don't know if I thought about it from a – content and exact number content per vehicle. I guess the way we would look at it and I think it's reflected in the longer term guidance that Joe talked about at our Investor Day is accelerated growth and growth over market. And it's being driven by more software, more data and solid growth in the vehicle architecture space. So, I don't have content per vehicle factor number. Maybe a way to think about it, I quit backing into it, but when you think about active safety and you think about our spend on Level 4 and Level 5. Joe and I and the team would tell you, we are seeing a factor change in active safety revenues and active safety book. So, we think you'll continue for the next several years to be a run rate from a booking standpoint that's in the range, call it $3 billion plus that in the range that we book this year in active safety. We talked about infotainment it's been a bit lumpy, so we are actually down year-over-year on the infotainment bookings, but up on revenue. You'll see strong revenue growth there as well, and then I think the smart architecture, the vehicle architectural, will be able to see how that plays out.
Joe Massaro:
John, go back to and we will have it revisit you with it offline. As you think about the architecture business, our view between sort of now and call it 2030 is for every $3 of content that goes into the architecture if me moves about $1 from optimization. And so we are not exactly on content per vehicle 10 years out, but as we look at the trend, vehicle architecture has a positive mix that would be higher in connection systems, more complicated materials, going in for the three, maths coming out is the one decrement. And as to Kevin's point, we are going to see additional content from the higher end compute platforms as well Integrated Cockpit Controller, Multi-Domain Controller. But that on the architecture side itself, there is an optimization decrement, but we see the increase of the different materials and technology parts getting in.
Joe Massaro:
So to everyone one of our major product lines of segments are growing over market, growing over here.
John Murphy:
Okay. And then maybe just a follow-up to that, I mean I understand you guys are incredibly financially disciplined on margins and returns and great towards the shareholder capital. But there is also sort of a view in the market right now particularly future car technologies that significant growth regardless of exact profitability returns being rewarded with high multiples, whether it be in the private market, you can see some can early stage companies or some stuff even in the public market. Is there any potential that you might drift away from sort of that return in margin targets to get greater growth which might rewards you with higher stock price which might reduce your cost of capital? And then sort of decent whatever virtuous circle is, but there is some confirmation in the market right now just been barbell of, you know where you guys are valued and more some slightly high flyers and higher multiples are valued right now?
Kevin Clark:
Listen, I would tell you there is zero possibility that happen. And that's for multiple reasons including experience seeing over the long term companies too growth for growth taken what ultimately happens. I say the second and maybe more aligned – directly aligned with shareholders near term. From a management team standpoint, over or roughly half our compensation is tied to expanding return on capital. So there is a direct correlation that affects myself, my direct report, their management team, and it's pushed on down tied to our long term incentive plan that really drives a mindset where it's about increasing and enhancing return on capital. And consistent with what Joe has mentioned earlier about is being manically focused on our cost structure and our cost for generation, all these programs, all these major program, size strategic. We take a look at and we review it with the management team before they bid on. And we give them specific guidelines with respect to where they can go. And the discussion about return on capital quite frankly is one of the a biggest discussion and we serve more time on that quite frankly than we even do on the margin expansion discussion.
John Murphy:
That's very good to hear. And maybe just one last real quick housekeeping, and I apologize if I missed this Joe. I mean, on roadmap headwinds for 2018 and what you are seeing in sort of the relationship of the automakers on ability of the index pass through and all that kind of stuff with particularly around copper, other walls that you might be facing some inflation or what?
Kevin Clark:
No change here John. I mean our copper is the pass through are for actual copper. So those again they impact, they can move revenue depending on how fast copper moves. There is sometime a little bit of a lag call it quarter and half to give the inventories for this system, but beyond that we are not anticipating any headwinds and have seen no contractual changes certainly. And then we are really down to – again, we watch resin, but that's a distant derivative of oil, so we are able to manage that with the early effect, crude oil got a big resin buy, or buy fairly efficiently. So not a lot of tough commodity headwinds are risked from anything we see.
Operator:
Your next question comes from David Tamberrino with Goldman Sachs. Your line is open.
David Tamberrino:
Thanks. Active safety bookings looks like they significantly accelerated in the fourth quarter from the $2 billion year-to-date at 3Q. Can you kind of talk about this state of the environment with quoting activity and kind of what your percentage share of wins of business as are looking at is?
Kevin Clark:
Look, I don't have – this is Kevin. I don't have the exact cent share of win. We tend to be focused on the higher end – medium to high end vision radar in the other locations. Active safety activity across the customer base from an opportunity standpoint has picked up as active safety rate – penetration rates have increased. As Joe mentioned, a year or so ago we were at five customers, I think we're at 10 or more in 2017. So we are seeing a significant ramp up post with existing customers as well as new customers. As I mentioned, I just see a factor changing our book on the active safety on a going forward basis, a significant increase relative to markets [indiscernible].
Joe Massaro:
David, our win rate, I mean it's a little bit like my infotainment response David like here. It depends on what you're scoring, we don't low end cameras those types of things. We really don't participate in. So if you're in there, the share would be lower. Out teams have been saying 90% of win rate in the work that we are going after. And we've had our – as you mentioned a very strong Q4 and see why we call it plus $3 billion booking level is in 2018 and 2019. We've got that line of sites for those at this point, so we are feeling very good about that active safety business. And as I mentioned earlier, one of those conversations then lead into Level 3 plus autonomous driving.
David Tamberrino:
Got it. And then as we think about what you've booked so far, almost $10 million cumulatively I think on our account. How much of that is more software related revenue versus hardware? Understanding it's a package together, but just trying to see how much embedded software from active is in that new business bookings for active safety versus software that are come from a Tier 2, Tier 3?
Kevin Clark:
It's hard David. For active safety I would sort of redo it, it's falling there. I would tell you our view is the software capability around things like sensor fusion and such are what's helping us to drive the business. But on the active safety side of the business, it truly is sort of firmware. It's embedded in there and it's in the price. So it's very hard to just put our revenue.
David Tamberrino:
Got it. The second of that from a margin uplift perspective, you mentioned hardware vision and multi-domain controllers. How much of those components you have embedded software that's coming from your software engineers versus the third party?
Kevin Clark:
I mean, all of it had some of our software, but what we incorporate from a customer or a customers' third part, another third party with my customer is platform dependent, but if we can steadfast, that's a lot of our software, Al, you've put some software in there. There is actually some software from two other, way it with someone else, I believe that TT, so it's usually a mix, but in terms of all of our products have some of our software and we are the integrator of other software component. So we tend to be sitting on top and making sure the software all works together and within that control unit.
Operator:
Your next question comes from David Lim from Wells Fargo. Your line is open.
David Lim:
Hi. Good morning guys. Just quickly on the backlog it looks like where the win rate is, it looks like it declined a little bit for your EA or what you call the EA division in the past. I am thinking maybe it had something to do with passenger cars, but can you guys elaborate on that?
Kevin Clark:
I think year-over-year, David, you got to be careful. As we've said in the past there is lumpiness, but it relates to both. So I wouldn't read a trend into year-over-year small change. I don't underscore, but actually we had a couple very big booking including the GM [indiscernible] that obviously had a positive effect point in 2017?
David Lim:
Got it. So that's what I was thinking was episodic. And finally, can you give us some color on the situation with NAFTA and how that would impact you, you know that there is a lot of moving parts, but some additional color would be very helpful. Thank you.
Kevin Clark:
A lot of moving parts on Aptiv, so I would tell you, you know less concerning and less significant and call it border adjustment tax flows, you know if you go, six or nine months back. Right now, there is really two things we're watching on NAFTA, if that's got a regional valued content and what they do with those percentages, you know they are talking about bumping it up to maybe as much as 85%. That is in the ballpark of what I'd call additional duties, you know, call it maybe $20 million a year. So, we're watching that, but again these are – what I would call manageable amounts, the others, the domestic concept requirement, they put one in. What does it mean? That's a little bit hard to calculate at the moment, because you know it's unlike the RVs there you can sort of adjust the percentages and calculate the number, the domestic content is still wide open. I would tell you though that the extent what they are talking about, to the extent they include intellectual property in the domestic content number, it should really not be big deal for us, because that will allow us counter value of the software and the intellectual property be put into the product that are manufactured in Mexico. So, again, we're way off going forward from a – impact of something like a border adjustment tax. Thought this is manageable and it's naturalistic of plus tomorrow, it's probably nice, but you can, six months, but if it was the lead, it would probably be call it on a full year basis, maybe up to $100 million of additional duty we have to work through.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Itay Michaeli with Citigroup. Your line is open.
Itay Michaeli:
Great thank, good morning. I just wanted to go back to the Mobility on Demand and robo-taxi discussions. So, understanding that you don't want to be kind of a fleet manager or mobility provider, as we think about the race we're seeing by different players to deploy these vehicles relatively quickly to the extent that Aptiv technology enables one of your partners or customers to get into this race fairly quickly for example like next year we plan on deploying. How should we think about the economics to Aptiv ultimately in new business, is it still limited to the content per vehicle or will there be other software other data related revenue that will be part of the growth of that effort?
Kevin Clark:
I think the answer to that is depending on the customer relation with the – nature of the customer agreement, it would be for a customer to use both our AD stack as well as our mobility cloud, right which allows or allows both that customer, after is to monetize data whether it's on vehicle data or its off vehicle data whether data used by the OE to opt for fleet manager to optimize fleet performance or say they basically bundled and sold out to outside third party. So, our objective would be able, would be to target each one of those. That would be the biggest opportunity.
Itay Michaeli:
Great. That's helpful. And just quickly on the 2018 outlook, I apologize if I missed it. So, did you provide any kind of directional margin commentary for the segment result from the product base?
Joe Massaro:
Yes, within your specific lines, both will be up excluding that mobility investment, and the Active Safety and User Experience business and that's kind of be about $140 million.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Emmanuel Rosner with Guggenheim. Your line is open.
Emmanuel Rosner:
Good morning everybody. Just two quick follow-ups from me, the first one is on your bookings and it's a follow-up to previous question. I'm looking at Slide 8, can you maybe just go over again how you think of that metric and how it's related to future organic growth. I think under the old combined Delphi, the old rule of thumb was, look it's growing at a 10% CAGR, therefore we have high confidence we can grow revenues at 5%. Like, is it the same way to think about it at Aptiv?
Kevin Clark:
Yeah, listen these are programs with lifetime revenues, programs typically are at Aptiv for two to three years out, which is at Delphi with the Powertrain business, it would be three to four years out. You know we would assume if you can grow 10%, there is a possibility that there is some leakage in those bookings or adjustments to FX or shifts in program that is of confidence that we can grow it, roughly 5 point over market.
Joe Massaro:
Yeah, Emmanuel, the only thing I would add to that is that's favorable over time, right. So, I wouldn't react too necessarily one year we grow booking 12%, next year we grow bookings 7%. That's over – we did that analysis, you are right, a couple of years ago, and that was over time. So, it's not a – this year that change is over time. We are going to get bookings are very lumpy for us, so it's a good metric as CAGR over – have such good CAGR over a five plus year period.
Emmanuel Rosner:
Understood, and then just one additional follow-up. You are expecting some pretty decent growth acceleration in the – I guess the electrical business. Can you talk about the cadence of that in 2018? Are we going to see it already straight in Q1?
Kevin Clark:
Yeah, it will be lower in Q1 and ramping up throughout the year. I think it's actually Q1 flat to slightly down.
Joe Massaro:
Quite frankly and then ramping up to the kind of mind-single digit growth level for the full year.
Kevin Clark:
Different way to think about is just, it's how we cover the past our comp, and that accelerated towards the back half of 2017, so that's sort of where you see the details are coming.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Steven Fox with Cross Research. Your line is open.
Steven Fox:
Just one question from me. Hey, could you, it's good to hear that you are saying disciplined to your profit targets that you laid out in the fall. One of the things that seems to have changed in the last, I don't know, even just the last month or so has been, the ramp up in expectation for vehicle miles for autonomous vehicle miles from Waymo and Uber that are going to be driven this year. You guys are talking about 2 million on a 150 vehicles by the end of the year. Can you just talk about how you manage that profit expectation versus what seems to be sort of a bigger arm raised around getting autonomous vehicle data from road tests as we go through…
Kevin Clark:
Listen, it's a great question, a very good question. We have a specific business plan tied to our mobility group tied to our autonomous driving activity. And that ties to the [indiscernible] vehicles and activity that we're willing to do and based on those dollars spent, their key milestones that need to be delivered as it relates to advancement in technology for interaction. So, you know we are very, very focused on, as Joe mentioned early, managing our cost structure using much of the internal funding as we can through cost reduction to support investment in future growth opportunities and then taking those future growth opportunities where we can and apply those newer technologies to near term commercial opportunities like active safety. So, it's just a very disciplined approach. We've managed it like we manage any other business. We know we have financial commitments, we have margin targets, we have return on capital targets and we operate to those.
Steven Fox:
So is there possibilities, if say there was pressure on you to gather more data more quickly that you could reach some kind of financial partnerships or would it totally be related to active spend in the near term?
Kevin Clark:
Listen, we're focused on how do we maximize return on capital and shareholder value. So, to the extent opportunities like that made financial sense, those are definitely things that we'd evaluate.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Colin Langan with UBS. Your line is open.
Colin Langan:
Any guidance on the $140 million in mobility investment, post 2018, if that's a good run rate or does it continue to incline from there?
Joe Massaro:
Yeah, it will expand and it won't expand at the percentage that it did between 2017 and 2018, but we'd expect that to grow, but again to Kevin's comment, it will grow within that financial framework of the 20 to 40 basis points margin.
Colin Langan:
Got it and then, just lastly, I know you've already indicated there is no change from the U.S. tax reform to your tax rate, is there any long-term impact? Does this help you at all, would your rate have gone up in the future or essentially there is really no long tax rate? I'm trying to think about it – would have been help if...?
Joe Massaro:
Yeah, there is always gives and takes to tax, because U.S. tax rate – lower U.S. tax rate is helpful, but we're not given the way we're setup or not a big U.S. tax payer, so it just doesn't move it significantly. And the way we're focused at the moment is, how to make sure that 2015 to 2016 stays sustainable and for us, and we treat that like we treat every other cost in the place. We are trying to figure out how to manage it and we think we got better uses for cash. So, we're always working it. So, there is a lot of ins and out there.
Operator:
There are no further questions at this time. I will turn the call back over to the presenters for any closing comments.
Kevin Clark:
Okay, well, listen, thank you everybody for your time. We greatly appreciate it and have a great day.
Operator:
That concludes the Aptiv Q4 2017 earnings conference call. Thank you for joining. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Good morning. My name is Paula, and I'll be your conference facilitator. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Delphi Q3 2017 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions]
I would now like to turn the call over to Elena Rosman, Delphi's Vice President of Investor Relations. Elena, you may begin your conference.
Elena Rosman:
Thank you, Paula. Good morning, and thank you to everyone for joining Delphi's Third Quarter 2017 Earnings Conference Call. To follow along with today's presentation, our slides can be found at delphi.com under the Investors section of the website. And consistent with prior calls, today's review of our actual and forecasted financials excludes restructuring and other special items and will address the continuing operations of Delphi. The reconciliation between GAAP and non-GAAP measures is included in the back of the presentation and the press release.
Please see Slide 2 for a disclosure on forward-looking statements, which reflects Delphi's current view of future financial performance, which may be materially different from our actual performance for reasons that we cite in our Form 10-K and other SEC filings. Joining us today will be Kevin Clark, Delphi's President and CEO; and Joe Massaro, CFO and Senior Vice President. As seen on Slide 3, Kevin will provide a strategic update on the business, and then Joe will cover the financial results and our outlook for 2017 in more detail. With that, I would like to turn the call over to Kevin Clark.
Kevin P. Clark:
Thanks, Elena. Good morning, everyone. Thanks for joining us. I'm going to begin by reviewing the highlights from the third quarter and then provide some additional commentary on the strategic vision that we shared at our September investor conference in Boston. Joe will then take you through our financial results for the third quarter and outlook for the fourth quarter and full year.
So let's begin with the highlights on Slide 5. Our financial results reflect continued positive momentum, including record third quarter sales, operating income and margins and earnings per share. We delivered another strong quarter with mid-single-digit revenue growth, representing continued robust growth over market; solid margin expansion while continuing to invest in strategic growth initiatives in connected services, smart architecture and automated driving; and double-digit operating income and earnings per share growth, demonstrating the benefits of volume growth and our industry-leading cost structure. Based on our year-to-date operating results, we're raising our revenue and earnings guidance for both the fourth quarter and full year. Joe will walk you through the details of that in a few minutes. Importantly, we delivered these record results while continuing to make progress on the spin of Delphi Technologies. We also announced last week the acquisition of nuTonomy, an industry leader in advanced automated driving technology. We believe the combination of nuTonomy and Ottomatika will accelerate the development and commercialization opportunities for advanced active safety and automated driving solutions for both our commercial and traditional OEM customers. I'll provide more detail on this later in my presentation. Let's turn to Slide 6, where I'd like to spend a minute highlighting the takeaways from our recent Investor Day. We formally introduced our 2 new independent companies, Aptiv and Delphi Technologies, at our recent investor conference. As we said previously, the transition of today's vehicles to a software-defined platform is driving significant change in our industry. And with this change, both Aptiv and Delphi Technologies are uniquely positioned to address the rapidly changing needs of our customers. Aptiv enables Smart Mobility Solutions through a comprehensive technology portfolio that delivers data and power distribution; software-enabled compute platforms and connected services, which can be optimized with our industry-leading advanced architecture and systems integration capabilities. Aptiv is strategically positioned to help our customers navigate the increasing complexity of vehicle features and functions and capture the rapidly developing opportunities in electrification, automated driving and data management. Delphi Technologies is uniquely positioned to enable solutions for advanced vehicle propulsion. The company's portfolio of highly engineered technologies assist our customers in meeting increasingly stringent regulatory standards while, at the same time, enhancing vehicle performance and provide the power needed to support the increasing electrical content being added to the vehicle. In summary, both businesses are perfectly positioned for accelerated growth as we sit at the forefront of new opportunities to monetize future mobility and propulsion solutions. Turning to Slide 7. You can see how our portfolio of advanced technologies, aligned to the safe, green and connected megatrends, are leading to a new customer awards. Recent new business wins in our Electrical Architecture and Electronics and Safety segments reflect a shift in vehicle architectures and computing power, which are necessary to enable the increased software functionality that serves as the building blocks for infotainment, active safety and automated driving. Our Powertrain segment continues to strengthen its position in advanced gas propulsion solutions with recent GDi in advanced engine control business awards in China. Since 2011, the customer awards related to our advanced technologies represent an increasing portion of our total bookings and will drive accelerated growth in both businesses going forward, which underscores the success we've had bringing new technologies to market and is reflected in our year-to-date bookings of almost $19 billion, putting us on a clear path to finish the year above 2016 record of just under $26 billion. Slide 8 further highlights our technology leadership position in infotainment and user experience. The evolution of our infotainment platform with integrated displays, reconfigurable 3D clusters, [ juster ] control, edge compute and cloud connectivity, is unlocking the next-generation of software-enabled vehicle functionality. These high-speed computing platforms are a huge competitive advantage for Delphi, linking our Electrical Architecture and Electronics and Safety capabilities, enabling more connected vehicle content. As shown in a prior slide, we booked $14 billion in cumulative customer awards since 2011, including multiple high-profile conquest wins with OEMs such as Ferrari, Audi and Volvo, underscoring our strength as an integrated solutions provider, creating a software and hardware foundation for new features and functions while optimizing the total system costs and complexity. As a result, our infotainment and user experience revenues will double between 2016 and 2020, increasing from $1 billion to over $2 billion, representing mid-teen compounded growth. Slide 9 highlights how we're leveraging investments and asset safety to establish a strong position in automated driving. As you saw on Slide 7, we booked almost $7.5 billion in active safety awards since 2011, with a record $2 billion of bookings 2017 year-to-date. Active safety revenues increased over 70% during the third quarter and remain on pace for over 50% growth in 2017, reaching over $550 million. And we expect to continue that strong growth rate through 2018, with revenues reaching over $800 million, driven by increased penetration with existing customers, conquest wins with new customers and further penetration in less mature markets. The demand for active safety solutions continues to accelerate. Consumers want it, and OEMs are responding by deploying active safety systems across the full spectrum of their vehicle segment. We continue to gain market share through our deep systems knowledge, reflecting our unique ability to integrate the software, compute platforms and vehicle architectures necessary for Level 3 through Level 5 functionality, where demand's heating up. Customers are increasingly looking to us as their partner of choice because we not only have the capabilities to seamlessly deliver today's solutions, but also future solution, as they migrate to increasing functionality. And finally, with the addition of nuTonomy, we're on track for over $1 billion in automated driving revenues by 2025 and to further strengthen our industry-leading active safety position, which will translate into more than $2 billion of active safety revenues in 2025. Let's turn to Slide 10 to talk about how nuTonomy complements our existing automated driving capabilities. The combination of nuTonomy and Ottomatika provides scale and will accelerate our development and commercialization of Level 3 through 5 automated driving solutions for both traditional OEMs and commercial customers worldwide. Building on our capabilities in providing active safety solutions and experience with functional safety, this acquisition reflects our commitment to develop and commercialize the highest-performing and safest automated driving system on the road. Adding more than 70 engineers and scientists, including 25 Ph.D.s, a broad portfolio of advanced technology and strong partnerships and commercial relationships with leading aMod providers and OEMs, including Lyft, Grab and PSA, the addition of nuTonomy to our portfolio deepens our capabilities to pursue automated driving opportunities across the globe. We're excited to begin leveraging our combined efforts, including integrating our software capabilities and leveraging our pilot programs in cities such as Singapore, Boston and Las Vegas. We expect to have 60 automated vehicles on the road across 3 continents by the time the transaction closes at year-end, increasing to a fleet of roughly 150 vehicles by the end of 2018. And it's important to note that we can deliver on this operating plan while maintaining the financial framework we articulated at our September Investor Day. Turning to Slide 11. In addition to our recent acquisition of nuTonomy, we also made strategic investments and entered into a partnership during the quarter. LiDAR is a critical technology required for both advanced active safety and automated driving solution, and there's increased demand for solid state LiDAR solutions as customers seek to accelerate functionality while reducing costs. Our LiDAR investments are targeted to provide customers with a comprehensive portfolio of LiDAR technologies, utilizing solutions that provide optimized functional performance at the absolute lowest cost. To meet this objective, we made 2 additional solid-state LiDAR investments in the quarter. The first was in Innoviz, which leverages proprietary design to deliver high-performance, long-range scanning and object detection; and the second was in LeddarTech, which has developed an advanced signal processing technology to commercialize a low-cost solution. We also announced a partnership with BlackBerry QNX to bolster our automated driving operating system. QNX will provide a safe and secure operating system that will support Delphi's proprietary automatic software algorithms and middleware to enhance performance and safety for a fully integrated automated driving solution launching in 2019. In summary, there's been a string of exciting developments as we continue to execute on our Smart Mobility Solutions strategy for Aptiv. With that, I'll hand the call over to Joe to take us through the third quarter results and our updated outlook for 2017.
Joseph Massaro:
Great. Thanks, Kevin, and good morning, everyone. Slide 13 provides a summary of our third quarter financial performance where, as Kevin mentioned, we saw several quarterly records for sales, operating income, margin and earnings.
Organic revenue growth of 4.4% on flat underlying vehicle production was led by strong growth in Electronics and Safety and Powertrain, partially offset by expected declines in Electrical Architecture. Our EBITDA margins expanded 20 basis points on a pro forma basis to 17.3%, and operating margins expanded 30 basis points to 13.1%. Earnings per share grew 15%, primarily due to higher operating income and the favorable impact of FX rates, partially offset by our continued investments to support future growth. We generated operating cash flow before the payment of the unsecured credit resettlement of $461 million, a 16% increase year-over-year. As previously discussed, the unsecured credit restatement of $310 million in the quarter was onetime in nature and was previously included in our full year operating cash flow guidance. Lastly, we returned $172 million of cash to shareholders, including almost $100 million of share repurchases in the quarter. Let's look at revenue in greater detail on Slide 14. Beginning with a walk on the left, on a pro forma basis, excluding Mechatronics, price of 2% was in line with expectations and offset by the favorable impact of FX translation, primarily the euro and commodities. Adjusted sales growth of 4.4% was driven by strong growth in Europe and Asia, where production growth as well as a strong active safety, infotainment, GDi and power electronics growth, more than offset North American production declines. North American revenues were down 7.5%, as vehicle production declined approximately 9% in the quarter. The North American weakness was in line with our expectations and reflects continued softness in passenger car volumes across North American OEs. Finally, South America continues to recover, albeit on relatively small revenues. Turning to operating income growth. Slide 15 walks the year-over-year change in the quarter, adjusted for the sale of Mechatronics. Operating income was $566 million, up 10%, and operating margins were 13.1%, up 30 basis points over prior year. Margin expansion was driven by strong flow-through on sales growth and continued improvements in operating performance. The impact of FX in the quarter was positive, reflecting both translational and transactional gains. Margin expansion was partially offset by price as well as incremental investments in our new mobility technologies like automated driving. Turning to the segments on Slide 16. Let's start with Electrical Architecture on the left. Sales were down 1% in the quarter, primarily driven by the decrease in the North American market, as previously discussed. The slowdown in North American passenger car sales, including last year's cancellation by FCA of several passenger car platforms, primarily impacts our Electrical Architecture segment. We expect Electrical Architecture to return to mid-single-digit revenue growth in 2018, driven by new product launches and the completion of a major model changeover. Margin expansion in electrical architecture increased 60 basis points despite the decline in sales, as we remain focused on improving operating performance and leveraging our best cost country structures, consistent with what one would expect from Delphi. Moving to Electronics and Safety. Adjusted revenue grew 14% in the quarter, driven by active safety growth of 72%, reflecting continued new launches and increased penetration. And infotainment continues to see strong growth, up 11%, even while lapping strong prior year revenue growth and launch activity. E&S margins were down 150 basis points versus the prior year. E&S margins benefited from strong volume flow-through, over 30% in the quarter, offset by our planned increase in new mobility investments, which totaled a little over $10 million in the quarter or approximately 120 basis points of margin. As a reminder, we remain on track with our original new mobility investment planned for the year of approximately $50 million to $60 million, with costs continuing to ramp in the fourth quarter. The Powertrain segment delivered 11% organic growth, with strong double-digit gains in power electronics, GDi and commercial vehicle volumes. Light-duty diesel revenues were flat in the quarter. Powertrain margins expanded over 100 basis points due to strong volume flow-through and benefits from prior restructuring actions. In summary, our revenue growth met or exceeded our expectations, and we remain relentlessly focused on improving our cost structure and expanding margins while investing in future growth opportunities. Slide 17 walks our EPS year-over-year, which grew 15%, driven by organic sales growth and favorable FX. As a result of our operational performance, EPS was $0.12 higher versus prior year. The net benefit of below-the-line items was approximately $0.01, as the benefit of a lower tax rate was offset by other items, including lower year-over-year equity income and higher minority interest expense. With that, let's turn to our guidance expectations on Slide 18. We've raised our guidance for both the fourth quarter and full year outlook. Our fourth quarter outlook is 1% organic growth, reflecting 2 points of growth over market, consistent with prior expectations, as we work through difficult year-over-year comparisons in key markets. We expect margins to be flat to up slightly, reflecting the year-over-year increase in new mobility investments and the margin-dilutive flow-through on higher euro revenue translation. Earnings per share is expected to be in the range of $1.75 to $1.85 per share, up 2% at the midpoint, reflecting the impact of the lower Q4 2016 tax rate of approximately 11%. For the full year, revenues are now expected to be $17.4 billion at the midpoint, up roughly 5% on an adjusted basis and consistent with our expectations of mid-single-digit growth on a flat market. Adjusted operating income is now expected to be $2.315 billion at the midpoint, and earnings per share are now expected in the range of $6.70 to $6.80, a $0.10 increase at the midpoint and reflects our expectation of approximately $400 million of share buybacks in 2017. Cash flow guidance remains unchanged at $1.85 billion. In summary, we are confident in our raised outlook for the year, reflecting strong sales growth, margin expansion and double-digit earnings growth. I'd now like to hand the call back to Kevin for his closing remarks.
Kevin P. Clark:
Thanks, Joe. Let me summarize on Slide 19 before opening the call up to Q&A.
We delivered another great quarter, driven by continued strong demand for our industry-leading technologies and very solid operating execution. This positive momentum gives us confidence in our increased outlook for the fourth quarter and full year. As Joe mentioned, we continue to work tirelessly on increasing the efficiency and flexibility of our cost structure, and we're confident that our strong performance in 2017 will translate into continued strong performance in 2018 and beyond, as we prepare for the separation of Aptiv and Delphi Technologies into 2 very well-positioned, independent public companies. We look forward to sharing more with you on that front in the coming weeks and months and are very excited for another outstanding technology demonstration at our CES showcase in early January. We hope you can attend. So with that, let's open the lineup for questions.
Elena Rosman:
Thanks, Paula. We'll now take our first question.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions]
Your first question comes from Brian Johnson of Barclays.
Brian Johnson:
Kevin and Delphi and Aptiv team, wanted to talk a little bit more about nuTonomy, especially given your partnership with Intel, Mobileye, the work with BMW. What was missing in your view from the staff that you had earlier in the year that nuTonomy brings? Is it around LiDAR map comparing the LiDAR images to the pre-post-map. Is it around driver policy? Is it around the user interface? Or just what does it get you that you didn't have in the stack before?
Kevin P. Clark:
Yes, Brian, I guess, a great question. Really, we view nuTonomy, and you're familiar with the company as well, as providing primarily incremental scale, but it doubles the amount of professional scientists, engineers that we have focused on autonomous driving, technologies, increasing our base from roughly 100 to 200. They bring with them very strong skill set. And when you look at the automated driving space, it's really all about speed. And they have developed capabilities, enhanced capabilities, commercial relationships, very strong IP and very strong, capable management team and resources that we felt could help us accelerate the development of the technologies that we have underway.
Brian Johnson:
And do you have a sense of the size of your autonomous fleet, say, in 2019 -- '18, '19 and '20, just how you plan to ramp that to start pushing the development of the software?
Joseph Massaro:
Yes. So in my comments, I mentioned, we'll have 60 -- on a combined basis, we'll have 60 vehicles by year-end on 3 continents. That will grow to over 150 vehicles in 2018 and will continue to grow beyond that at a pretty fairly accelerated pace. So we're very focused on getting vehicles on the road with commercial partners, one, to continue to advance the development of our technology; and two, to continue to identify sources of funding and revenue to help support the development.
Brian Johnson:
Yes. And second question around, you're now kind of 3 stakes over in the LiDAR world. I guess, question is, have you shifted your focus or do you see a role for a LiDAR that is not magically as cheap as a radar you could get from a parts catalog online but so it's not the end-state low-cost LiDAR solution, but it would be a useful LiDAR solution for the early 2020 in terms of a higher cost point that the economics [ of a fleet ] business could absorb? Do some of these acquisitions reflect that instead of a search of the holy sub-$100 grail?
Kevin P. Clark:
Well, I think, there's 2 answers to that question. We're still on the pursuit for low-cost, solid-state LiDAR solution because our view is that they're absolutely critical for adoption in the consumer markets or by OEs. So ultimately, a very aggressive push to drive down costs and increase functionality. And when you look at the LiDAR solutions, where we've made investments today is really focused on that activity and focused on specific technology or capability that they bring, whether it be long-range, shorter-range corner, whenever the case may be. As it relates to commercial applications, the commercial customers, less pressure on solid-state solutions, more pressure on having a solution that operates well that functions and is available now. And for those applications, we're actually using mechanical LiDAR solutions for that market, electrical organic.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Chris McNally of Evercore ISI.
Chris McNally:
Infotainment, if we could just switch to some of the detail you gave on Slide 8. Growing 15% '17 and '18, you have a $2 billion target for 2020. But obviously, the order momentum here has been great. Can you just sort of give us an idea of you have $3 billion in orders and that's been a pretty steady number for the last, call it, 18 months. How should we think about that turning into revenue in maybe a little bit beyond the 2020? And maybe just some details on where you're seeing the success on the order book in the infotainment, specifically.
Joseph Massaro:
Yes, Chris, it's Joe. I can give you some of the specifics sort of where we're seeing the bookings and how we see it roll out. Where this business plays, what I would call sort of mid- to high-end infotainment systems. So there's no audio in these numbers. This is really mid- to high-end infotainment. Big wins with folks like Audi on hot conquest wins on high-end infotainment systems. That was one we booked last year for $1.2 billion in total. See those revenues rolling out on some of the more recent bookings, I would call it, from 2020 and beyond. So we really do see solid revenue growth in this business, as Kevin mentioned, for the foreseeable planning period through 2020. And then our view, this is one area, as we talked about at Investor Day, the inflection point, the revenue acceleration beyond 2020 can certainly see this business participating in that as well.
Chris McNally:
Okay, that's great. And then just maybe in a similar vein, the detail you gave on ADAS, growing 50% now. I think some of your orders on a run-rate basis are closer to $4 billion this year. And it seems like you're the #1 market share provider for Mobileye, which continues to have, seems like 80% of the market. The number you threw out for 2025 of $2 billion plus, I mean, that would imply just that growth rates would slow down into the 20%. Are you just be conservative because it's such a far out number? Maybe you could just talk about some of the assumptions there because it seems quite conservative.
Kevin P. Clark:
Yes. Listen, I think Joe should comment on the specifics. I think a couple of things. One, these numbers reflect -- the active safety numbers reflect booked business, so the business that we have in hand. Obviously, between now and 2025, there's an opportunity to book incremental business. I'd say that's one. Two, growth has been extremely strong. Growth in 2017 will be closer to 60% from 50%. But on a go-forward basis, as you know, you have the law of large numbers, right, and maintaining that same sort of growth rate becomes increasingly challenged -- challenging. Joe, I don't know if you want to...
Joseph Massaro:
Yes, I think that's right. Chris, through 2020, we're going to have 40% CAGR in active safety. We continue to see strong double-digit growth in '21 and 2022. But as Kevin mentioned, I think, we're, I'd say, a little conservative as you get out to 23, 24, 25. And as those bookings fill in, we'll certainly, I think, be adding to that number.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Rod Lache of Deutsche Bank.
Rod Lache:
A couple of questions. One is the investments in mobility, how much have you spent of the $50 million to $60 million so far this year? Can you give us some color on how nuTonomy affects the numbers going forward? I presume that adds some costs but not revenue. And related to that, does the E&S margin recover to the levels we had seen? Or do -- should we be thinking about nuTonomy and some of these additional investments kind of keeping it tamped down a bit?
Joseph Massaro:
Yes, let me start with nuTonomy, and I will go through the others. We're not going to give out obviously specific guidance, particularly on line items. I think a good way that Kevin mentioned is -- I think a good way to frame nuTonomy spend would start with doesn't change our views from a financial framework perspective from what we gave from '18 to '20 at Investor Day in terms of margin expansion and profitability earnings growth. Kevin mentioned it effectively doubles the size of our business and/or our resources in AD. Next year, we were planning to spend about $70 million prior to nuTonomy. So I think, sort of that doubling concept would work well as the guidepost for additional spend. As it relates to E&S margins, I think, and we had another great quarter. We clearly think it makes sense to be investing in this business. The new mobility spend as well, as what I'll call, sort of pursuit and engineering costs related to the growth of active safety and infotainment. If you take out just the new mobility spend out of E&S, it printed at about 10.5% OI this quarter. Excluding new mobility spend, over the coming years, between '18 and '20, we certainly see that E&S margin moving into the 11s and towards the high-end of the 11s over that time period. So we see good profitability in this business. As I mentioned in my prepared remarks, flow-through on increased sales volume was over 30% in the business this quarter. So the margin and backlog and what we're seeing flowing through is right where we expected and consistent with margin improvement over time in that business. The active safety business, even at $550 million of revenue, is basically at segment margins today. So again, that's what I'll call heavy pursuit and heavy engineering for those businesses. And when I adjust, I'm only adjusting, what I call, the automated driving and you mobility spend, the pursuit in engineering, we're leaving in that margin forecast.
Kevin P. Clark:
And Rod, I think it's important to note, we don't score it this way, and we shouldn't score it this way. But we believe that our investments in autonomous driving and our capabilities in automated driving really drive benefits in advanced active safety solutions. That has and will continue to translate into increased bookings and, ultimately, revenue growth.
Rod Lache:
Great. That makes a lot of sense, and it's helpful. Joe, maybe just one thing on the year-over-year bridge. Can you explain why the FX and commodities would seem like it was so positive on the EBIT bridge this quarter?
Joseph Massaro:
Yes, it's -- there's a couple of things. One, euro, stronger euro, that flows, Rod, call it, about 10%. And then as the euro moves, we picked up, what I'll call some transactional balance sheet benefits on other European countries. So we had -- and we don't talk about these a lot, but there were some moves. There's Turkish lira and a couple of other, Eastern European countries moved in our favor. And we had a strong renminbi quarter that put some transactional gains. So I'd call it sort of half-and-half euro translation flowing through and then some onetime transactional gains that came through.
Rod Lache:
Does that carry through into Q4?
Joseph Massaro:
No, not that this point. We have assumed they stay where they are. Yep.
Rod Lache:
All right. And lastly, was hoping you might be able to provide some color on the developments in Washington, either NAFTA or tax policy. Any high-level thoughts on what you've been seeing there?
Kevin P. Clark:
Yes, listen, we're -- on NAFTA, obviously, we're watching that very, very closely, both from a Delphi perspective and from an industry perspective, Rod. As we've said, free trade's important to our industry. We operate in a global industry. The supply chain is very global. Soft supply chain has been optimized, quite frankly, over the last 25 years. To the extent that gets affected in a negative way, I think it ultimately has implications for the cost of vehicles, which ultimately have implications for production and sale of vehicles. So that would not be positive, but we continue to watch it closely. From a tax standpoint, listen, anything that brings down corporate tax rates in the right way here in the United States would be helpful. Again, that's something we're trying to get additional clarity on in terms of what gets proposed and ultimately what gets passed. And we're a part of the dialogue that's going on from an industry standpoint and in Washington. So no specifics to offer upon it.
Joseph Massaro:
Rod, real quick on your first question. Sorry, didn't mean to skip over it. We're thinking new mobility spend is about $60 million for the year. And we've got a little over $20 million to spend in the fourth quarter.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Itay Michaeli of Citi.
Itay Michaeli:
Just wanted to talk about the $1 billion automated driving revenue by 2025. I think the last target at the Investor Day was about $300 million. So just love to get a little bit more detail around the path to $1 billion. And particularly, too, is there any CSLP assumptions there? And for Level 4, 5, kind of how you're thinking about the content per vehicle and the portion of those vehicles are going into kind of Robo tax mobility on-demand in services?
Joseph Massaro:
Yes, Itay, I think, the increase, obviously, relates to new -- to the nuTonomy acquisition, increased resources, things they have in the works really around the world with things like Robotaxi, Grab, Lyft. See, I think this is consistent. We see an earlier opportunity in mobility on-demand providers. To your point, we see that as a system. So CSLP-type system first going in to the business. That's really what the increase -- the other thing we're seeing, and this was to Kevin's point on his slide around the sort of the convergence with active safety. We're seeing a lot of interest from OEs on, what I'll call, sort of Level 3 and Level 3-plus active safety. And folks coming to us, specifically given our automated driving capabilities and our expertise in active safety, and trying to figure out how best to meld those technologies. And I think, for us, that's going to be -- when you talk about 2023 through 2025, that is going to be an extension of our active safety business and, I think, some real strong early wins in automated driving.
Itay Michaeli:
Great. And with nuTonomy, given that they have a fleet in Singapore, I mean, would Delphi ever think about actually operating its own kind of Robotaxi autonomous fleet with retrofitted vehicles? Are you still thinking about this more as a systems approach to kind of sell to automakers and mobility providers?
Kevin P. Clark:
Yes. Listen, I think it'll be -- it will actually be a mix of both, principally a systems approach to provide to mobility providers and OEs. But to the extent we can advance the development of the underlying technology using our own vehicles, that's something that we will do.
Operator:
Your next question comes from David Tamberrino of Goldman Sachs.
David Tamberrino:
I want to pick up where we just left off. How easy will it be to integrate your CSLP solution into vehicle manufacturing, right? Because I think now your development vehicles, as I understand, are retrofitted. What steps have you taken or plans have you made with OEMs to date to integrate into new vehicle production?
Kevin P. Clark:
Yes, listen, with new OEMs to date, we've had conversations and are actually working with a few OEMs as it relates specifically to the hardware and the architecture. As it relates to, let's call it, vehicle manufacturers outside of a traditional OE space, you're starting with a clean sheet of paper and, quite frankly, a simpler starting point, a simpler vehicle, and quite frankly, it's easier to do.
David Tamberrino:
Got it. So if I just think about the traditional OEMs in that hardware fitting into the existing frame of the vehicle, whatever you want to call it, how far away do you think you are from actually having it into, say, a mass-produced vehicle? Is that in line with your 2019 production ready system?
Kevin P. Clark:
I'm not sure I understand the question. Just repeat it one more time.
David Tamberrino:
Yes. What I'm trying to get at is there's a competitor that's out there, actually, one of your customers that's out there that is mass-producing vehicles with autonomous systems on top of it. I'm trying to understand how easy will it be for an OEM to take your solution, that you should have booked production ready in 2019 and integrated into its architecture in the vehicle.
Kevin P. Clark:
;
Yes. Well, listen, depending on the nature of the relationship and how integrated we are, we'll have the CSLP platform in 2019, so it's something that they could, in theory, have a good launch in 2019. Depending on the level of autonomy, it could be sooner, right? We're on the zFAS platform with Audi that has Level 3 automated driving capabilities today. And we provide some of the hardware, some of the software and the integration solution for Audi. So it depends on what level of autonomy that you're looking for. If it's a full Level 4, Level 5, it's 2019 or beyond.
Joseph Massaro:
I think, David, the way we think about it, to Kevin's earlier point, you got somebody like Tesla who designed the car from their cars, from the ground up to be platforms for these technologies, right? So they're architected in such a way. I think traditional OEs will go through to -- go down 2 paths. There will be things like the AA where they try to work through how best to integrate Level 3-type capabilities into the existing frame, the existing structure of the vehicle. Or this is really where we get into our smart architecture discussions. When you talk about vehicles being launched in 2022, 2023, the discussions we're now having with the OEs is how to design that smart architecture. So in 2022, 2023, it accommodates Level 3, and that same architecture can grow into Level 4, Level 5 from 25 and beyond. So there is some sort of what you refer to as retrofitting. There is some how to fit it into existing framework, those tend to be the higher vehicles like the AA. But when you get into other discussions, it's really about how to redesign, and that was the big push we had during Investor Day talking about smart architecture and the discussions we're having with customers about how to design that car of the future.
David Tamberrino:
Okay, that's helpful. Just last one here on light-duty diesel for the fourth quarter. What have you seen in production schedules? Are there any accelerating headwinds in Europe from this?
Joseph Massaro:
Listen, nothing significantly different than what we've been talking about. It's actually flat in Q3. We expect it to be down. [indiscernible] total light-duty diesel for us. We expect it to be down about 4% for the -- our revenue growth down about 4% for the year. So I would say just in line with what we've been seeing. A little choppy quarter-to-quarter, but it always is. But no major sort of [indiscernible] left on light-duty diesel.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Emmanuel Rosner of Guggenheim.
Emmanuel Rosner:
First question is on Powertrain. You had obviously some very strong organic growth in the quarter. Does that provide some outside potential to your view -- you highlighted the Investor Day for maybe a midterm growth rate of only 2 to 3 points in Powertrain. And I guess, just on that guidance you communicated of 2 to 3 points of growth in powertrain. I'm curious, I still struggle to sort of understand what the drivers are for that. I mean, there is Powertrain player, BorgWarner, looking for like mid -- around 7% growth still at the end of the decade with pretty similar diesel exposure and commercial vehicle exposure. Can you maybe just go back over some of the drivers for your gross outlook over the next few years?
Kevin P. Clark:
Yes, listen, I'll start, and Joe can chime in. I think, let me answer your question first specifically. Is there a possibility that there's upside? Yes, there's a possibility that there's upside. I think, what you're looking at is strong year-over-year comps, right, which is the pure math. That headwind as it relates to light-duty diesel and how quickly light-duty diesel declines. And do you continue to see the rapid growth in Gas Direct Injection? I think, for the quarter, GDI's up close to 60% year-on-year. Power electronics is up, although off a very strong number at a very high level. So it's a mix between year-over-year comps as well as light-duty diesel penetration declines. And yes, I think as you head into -- you look at 2017, is there a possibility that there is an upside based on current performance of the business? There's a possibility, but it's -- hinges on what happens in light-duty diesel.
Emmanuel Rosner:
Understood. And then just 2 quick financial follow-ups. The -- it seems the operating cash flow guidance was left unchanged. Is there -- what's sort of the driver of that? And then in terms of the mobility investments in -- how should those trend into 2018? Is it an ongoing headwind? Do they keep going up? Or are you happy with your run rate of spending?
Joseph Massaro:
Well, I think, it was cash flow guidance, we had updated in August for the unsecured creditors. We took that in. So that was fully baked in, it obviously came out of cash this quarter. So really had no significant adjustments to the cash flow number. We have done that in August. In answering Rod's question, again, we stay away from specific guidance. We expect, pre-nuTonomy, our automated driving mobility spend to be, call it, roughly right around $70 million. We're still working obviously through our plans. That would be up, call it, $10 million year-over-year from where we end in 2017. Again, if I had to use a benchmark for how much nuTonomy would run, as Kevin said, they sort of doubled our resources. So I think doubling the $70 million is a good initial proxy. Obviously, we're still working through our full year 2018 expectations.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Matt Stover from SIG.
Matthew Stover:
Appreciated. Just kind of following on to that question. So if the way I should think about that $70 million is an incremental investment and headwind into the margin so we just think through next year.
Joseph Massaro:
Yes.
Matthew Stover:
Okay. The second question, I'm trying to just put into context the infotainment business. I look at your publicly-traded peers, the margin profile for their business is sort of slightly below where your margin profile is in E&S in total. And I'm wondering, if your infotainment business now has a similar margin profile, A; and then B, to that question would be, as you put some of these new systems in, does the software scalability enable margin potential in that infotainment to be at or above your sort of current run rate average at E&S?
Kevin P. Clark:
Yes. Listen, as you think about the strategy as it relates to Aptiv, Matt, it really is focused on how do we leverage both our hardware capabilities and our software capabilities for both businesses. And as you increase the amount of software that goes in the vehicle and you establish software platforms for these solutions, whether they be infotainment, user experience, active safety, automated driving, how do we do it in a way where we make sure it scales and it scales significantly with volume? So we think the margin opportunity on the infotainment side is strong relative to where we sit today. And we're very, very focused on ensuring that we're developing platform solutions that can be leveraged across OEs, across models. Joe, did you want to add to it?
Joseph Massaro:
No, I think that covers it.
Operator:
Your next question comes from David Kelley of Jefferies.
David Kelley:
Just a quick one on the architecture business. You obviously saw a margin expansion despite the adjusted revenue decline. As we see that segment start to reaccelerate into next year, how should we think about margins in the group and the opportunity going forward for maybe the next 12 to 18 months or so?
Joseph Massaro:
Yes, we'd obviously expect to see margins continue to expand in that business as volume comes in. We got to do a really good job of running that business with cost structure front of mind. As we've seen in prior quarters, with additional volume, they tend to flow much, much more strongly. Big part of our overall margin expansion plan at 20 to 40 basis points a year obviously comes from leveraging that business. So we'd expect to see margin expansion that sort of fits that framework in that business.
David Kelley:
Okay, great. And then one more on the architecture business as well. Just looking at Slide 7, referencing the Q3 win on automated vehicle architecture. As we think back to your Investor Day, you kind of laid out that the path to more advanced and next-gen architecture, is this an example of that select domain centralization? Or how should we thing about this win and kind of where it fits and the future ramp-up of next-gen architecture solution?
Kevin P. Clark:
Yes, listen, it is an example. It's, I would say, the start of our smart architecture as it relates to automated driving or, I should say, the start -- at the beginning. There will be more advancements that will come. We're in dialogue, quite frankly, with a number of customers, their architecture needs for advanced active safety systems, automated driving systems as well as advanced infotainment user experience systems. So this is an area that, again, we think we're uniquely positioned relative to our peers in this space. And we think we can leverage for incremental sales on the infotainment side, on the active safety side, the autonomous driving side as well as we can use those software capabilities to leverage sales of our smart architecture.
Joseph Massaro:
And David, the other part I'd will point out, and it's on that same slide, but it's a great, great aspect to the selective architecture business is this high-voltage business. So $4 billion of light to big bookings. We've already got over $300 million of revenue for high-voltage applications in electrified vehicles, whether it's hybrids or full EVs. And that business is already at segment margins, even at the $300 million revenue level. It's a very profitable product line. And again, it speaks to sort of the future applicability of Electrical Architecture with these more complicated, whether it's smart architecture or electrified cars.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Brett Hoselton of KeyBanc.
Brett Hoselton:
I was hoping you could talk a little bit about your free cash flow priorities or actually maybe limitations on your free cash flow uses as you move over the next few quarters year with the splitting of the 2 companies. In other words, are there going to be restrictions on your share repurchase activity, restrictions on your M&A activity?
Joseph Massaro:
No, no, let me speak for Aptiv. Aptiv capital allocation strategy will look very similar to Delphi. So prioritize investment in the business, engineering, CapEx. We'll have a competitive dividend. Obviously, those things will be sorted out as we move closer to the spin but dividend will remain competitive. We'll look to do strategic and accretive M&A. And to the extent that's not available, we'll be in the market with share repurchases. Again, as I said before, that gun doesn't shoot straight on a quarterly basis, but trade-offs between timing of M&A and share repo. But overarching will not change. Delphi technology is obviously that's a decision that separate board of management make. But as Liam has talked about a number of times publicly, he expects to take sort of Delphi DNA with him, and I think that will include capital allocation strategy.
Kevin P. Clark:
Yes, listen, if I can just augment, the financial profile of the 2 businesses really, really doesn't change. And it's our view that we've created tremendous value by returning excess cash flow to shareholders. And if we don't have the use for that cash, whether it be dividends or share repurchase, but that's something we can continue to do.
Brett Hoselton:
And then secondly, I was hoping you could talk about maybe talk about the time frame of Level 2, Level 3 or Level 3-plus adoption versus Level 4 adoption. What I'm really asking here is that, there's a lot of people out there, if you go to CES, who believe that Level 4 capability's going to be available in that 20, 25 time frame, let's say, and there's going to be a broad adoption of it. But it seems as though there's significant cost inhibitor there as well as the fact that a geofenced car is restricted and therefore, it's probably going to limit the number of buyers for that vehicle. So as you kind of look at over the next decade or 2 decades or so forth, how do you think about how aggressively we're going to see people purchase Level 3 capable cars versus Level 4 capable cars?
Kevin P. Clark:
Yes, listen, our -- that's a great question, and that's why we really have a two-pronged strategy as it relates to autonomous or automated driving. From a commercial market standpoint, it's our view that you'll see Level 4, Level 5 capabilities much sooner. That customer base has economic incentive to develop and implement and execute on the technology and do it sooner. Near term, they'll do it in geo-fenced, low-speed, urban areas, that will come well before 2025. As it relates to the traditional OEs or the traditional consumer market, our view that Level 4, Level 5 is a scenario that's quite frankly closer to 2025 than where we are today, and it's for all the reasons that you just highlighted, including costs.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Steven Fox of Cross Research.
Steven Fox:
Just one question for me, just going back to nuTonomy and sort of the incremental investments. So I know it's not a big deal. You're talking roughly 3% or maybe operating profits incrementally. But what would -- but you're maintaining your sort of financial model from the meeting. So what are the positive offsets to that? And then how do we get comfortable with where these investments maybe peak out and what you would anticipate having to do maybe to round out your skill sets going forward?
Joseph Massaro:
So I think, yes, I go back to the financial frame work, right? So we, I think we got a great track record of this very focused on margin expansion, very focused on earnings growth, aggressively tackle our cost structure on a regular basis, whether it's through increased manufacturing performance, increased sourcing activity. The other aspects of our margin expansion, we have a lot of product lines that still have a long way to go from a growth perspective. We talk about active safety going from $500 million of revenue today or a little over to $2 billion, infotainment doubling since 2016. That volume provides incremental margin opportunities. So we feel very comfortable even with the additional spend in the new mobility segment that we'll continue to be able to meet the commitments as it relates to that financial framework. I think, if I understood your second part of your question right, if you're talking about things we need to go out to buy for automated driving, we really feel like nuTonomy is a very good addition and really don't see the need to go out for similar acquisitions. We'll continue to invest in the businesses, but this brings us a lot of capabilities, brings us a lot of know-how, positions us very well geographically. We now get strong bases of operations in Singapore, Boston, Pittsburgh, Silicon Valley. So we feel, from a footprint perspective, this really does give the automated driving business what it needs to continue down the development roadmap. So I don't see big acquisitions down the future for other things like nuTonomy.
Kevin P. Clark:
Yes, Joe, and listen, I completely agree with Joe. We have all the parts we need to bring it all together now. I think the important thing to also note, though, is we're really -- these investments are about repositioning the company. And I think when you look at the financial profile of the business that we are today, which is a great business, we're cash flow generative, we're high margin, we're cash flow efficient. As we become more software-oriented, the reality of the financial profile of this business improves. And that's what these investments are ultimately about, making sure that we meet our commitments near term, which we get up in the morning every day to do, but also making sure that we are making the appropriate moves, the appropriate investments so that we can reposition the business for how the industry is going to change and have it be an even more profitable, higher-growth, cash flow generative business than it is today.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Tavis McCourt of Raymond James.
Tavis McCourt:
First, I don't know if I missed this somewhere in the presentation, but what was the overall bookings in the quarter?
Joseph Massaro:
Bookings for Q3, hold on one second.
Kevin P. Clark:
Roughly $6 billion.
Joseph Massaro:
Yes, it's about $7 billion -- about $7 billion for the quarter.
Tavis McCourt:
Great. As I look at the balance sheet, it looks like the inventory trend is a little higher this year than typical. Looks like it's probably dragging $100 million or a little more out of cash flow. Is that something that you should be able to get back in Q4? Or is there some specific reason why the inventory levels are kind of trending higher this year? And then a clarification on the $1 billion goal in autonomous technology in 2025. Would that require some level of OE purchasing? Or do you think that $1 billion is achievable just through on-demand customers?
Joseph Massaro:
OE assumptions in those numbers is around really around Level 3, so not Level 4, 5. So we see line of sight and some Level 3 revenues by 2025 that would be OE-related. As it relates to inventory, there are a few things going on as it relates to growth. Talked about active safety and infotainment growth that's driving a little bit of higher volume here in inventory. Also add some, again, as we focus on the cost structure, there are some plans in place, which requires some stock builds, and those will be worked out, will all be worked out consistent by Q4. I don't think I'd say that, but certainly over the next coming 2 quarters, you can see that coming down.
Elena Rosman:
Tavis, just to clarify, the year-to-date bookings are $19 billion in total for the year. Okay. Kevin, do you have any closing remarks?
Kevin P. Clark:
Thank you very much for your time. We look forward to seeing you in January at CES, and we're very focused on executing for the balance of the year. Thank you.
Elena Rosman:
Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. That concludes the Delphi Q3 2017 Earnings Conference Call. Thank you for joining. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Good morning. My name is Kayla, and I will be your conference facilitator. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to Delphi Q2 2017 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions]
I would now like to turn the call over to Elena Rosman, Delphi's Vice President of Investor Relations. Elena, you may begin your conference.
Elena Rosman:
Thank you. Good morning, Kayla, and thank you to everyone for joining Delphi's Second Quarter 2017 Earnings Conference Call. To follow along with today's presentation, our slides can be found at delphi.com under the Investors section of the website.
Consistent with prior calls, today's review of our actual and forecasted financials exclude restructuring and other special items and will address the continuing operations of Delphi. The reconciliation between GAAP and non-GAAP measures is included at the back of today's presentation and the press release. Please see Slide 2 for a disclosure on forward-looking statements, which reflects Delphi's current view of future financial performance, which may be materially different from our actual performance for reasons cited in our Form 10-K. Joining us today will be Kevin Clark, Delphi's President and CEO; and Joe Massaro, CFO and Senior Vice President. As seen on Slide 3, Kevin will provide a strategic update on the business, and then Joe will cover the financial results and our outlook for 2017 in more detail. With that, I'd like to hand the call over to Kevin Clark.
Kevin P. Clark:
Thanks, Elena, and good morning, everyone. Thanks for joining us. I'm going to begin by providing some highlights from the second quarter and then spend some time discussing our portfolio of advanced technologies. Joe will then take you through our detailed financial results for the quarter and outlook for the third quarter and full year and as well as provide an update on the status of the spin-off of our Powertrain segment into a new independent company.
So let's begin with the highlights on Slide 5. Our second quarter financial results reflect continued momentum of the positive trends we've experienced over the last few quarters, including mid-single-digit revenue growth translating into strong growth over market; solid margin expansion, while continuing to invest in strategic growth initiatives, demonstrating the benefits of our industry-leading cost structure; and strong new business wins, driven by a portfolio of key technologies. Based on our year-to-date operating results, we're raising our guidance for the full year. Joe will walk you through the details in a few minutes. Additionally, we're pleased with the progress we've made on the spin transaction, which we expect to take place by the end of the first quarter of 2018. Turning now to Slide 6. The transformation of the automotive industry continues to dominate the news, with increased focus on safety, connectivity, electrification and automation, all of which are at the heart of our strategy. Customers are increasingly looking to Delphi to solve their toughest challenges. And as you can see from the headlines on this slide, our technologies are front and center. Volvo's recent announcement to conclude electrification on all their vehicles beginning in 2019 is another great example of the industry's accelerating shift to electrification. The unveiling of the new Audi A8 last month, the first semi-automated vehicle, is moving into production with Level 3 functionality through Audi's Traffic Jam Pilot feature. Delphi's Z-Fast multidomain controller for the Audi A8 is the most powerful, centralized computing platform in production today, enabling A8 drivers to give up vehicle control at speeds of up to 60 kilometers per hour. ADAS, infotainment and autonomous driving features are requiring more software, more signal distribution and more compute power. And Delphi is uniquely positioned as the only provider of both the brain and the nervous system of the vehicle with software and systems integration capabilities, which are critical to seamlessly delivering these advanced automotive-grade solutions. As highlighted on Slide 7, our portfolio of advanced technologies is, in fact, driving revenue growth today. Beginning with RemainCo on the left, active safety remains on pace for over 50% growth in 2017 and is expected to continue at that pace into 2018 driven by the combination of increased penetration with existing customers, conquest wins with new customers and further penetration in less mature markets. Infotainment and user experience is expected to grow 15% to 20% in both 2017 and 2018, benefiting from the market shift to medium- and high-end infotainment systems, which is our sweet spot as well as an acceleration in the adoption of advanced cockpit controllers to enable improved graphics performance, greater computational power and support for multiple displays. An industry-leading portfolio of high-margin engineered components positions us to grow faster than both the market and our competitors. And high-voltage electrification is on pace to grow 45% in 2017 and actually accelerate in 2018, reflecting the growth in high-voltage electrical architecture that is necessary to support the increased demand for powertrain electrification. Turning to the right side of the slide, in the Powertrain business. Our power electronics product line has revenues totaling $150 million today and is currently growing at a compound rate of 25% and will meaningfully accelerate in 2018, driven by the roughly $4 billion of new business bookings. GDi and variable valve train have each grown to roughly $350 million in revenues and continue to track at a solid mid-teens growth rate. And heavy-duty and medium-duty diesel revenues are currently increasing at a rate of over 20%, driven by improving conditions in the commercial vehicle market and the work that our powertrain team has done to further penetrate strong global customers. So in summary, our portfolio of advanced technologies, which represents over 35% of our current revenues, are growing mid-teens, which continues to 2018 and beyond. As you can see on Slide 8, we've broken out new business bookings for both RemainCo and the Powertrain business and further highlighted some of our key growth technologies. For RemainCo, the active safety, infotainment and user experience and high-voltage electronics bookings are accelerating, increasing at just under a 30% growth rate since 2011, totaling $25 billion of lifetime revenues and representing more than 25% of total bookings. Active safety bookings have increased at a compound rate of 50% since 2011, and the $2 billion of year-to-date bookings have already surpassed 2016 total active safety bookings of $1.4 billion. Infotainment and user experience bookings have increased over 40% in the last year and have increased at a mid-teens compound rate since 2011, reflecting the benefits of new technologies and share gains with both new and existing customers. And high-voltage electrification bookings and our Electrical Architecture business have grown at a 60% compound rate since 2011 and now total almost $4 billion. RemainCo also continues to benefit from strong bookings in this base business, which includes wire harnesses, connectors, cable management and electronic controls, growing at a compound rate of 5% since 2011 and now totaling $78 billion. For our Powertrain business, key growth technologies, including GDi, variable valve train and power electronics have grown at over a 20% growth rate since 2011, totaling almost $13 billion and representing 30% of total bookings. GDi bookings now total $5.5 billion and have grown at a compound rate of 50% since 2011. Bookings for power electronics have increased off of an initial low base and now total almost $4 billion. New business bookings in our Powertrain business have also benefited from $14 billion of cumulative awards from commercial vehicle customers, partially offsetting the slowdown in light-duty diesel bookings. Delphi had another great quarter of bookings in the second quarter of this year, bringing our year-to-date total to $14 billion and putting us on a path to finish the year above 2016's record of $26 billion. Slide 9 features just a few of the vehicle electrification and active safety bookings during the quarter. Growth in vehicle electrification results in increased constant opportunities for both RemainCo and the Powertrain business. This is exemplified by significant high-voltage conquest award with FAW-VW in China for our Electrical Architecture business. And the second major power electronics win with Volvo Geely in our Powertrain business for a new combined inverter DC/DC converter, with lifetime revenues of over $1 billion, bringing the year-to-date total on this project -- of this product line, rather, and with this customer to almost $2 billion. In addition, we have received an active safety award from a large global customer with lifetime revenues well in excess of $1 billion. Each of these bookings highlights the success we've had, bringing new advanced technologies to the market. Now Slide 10 further underscores that increased powertrain electrification provides increased content opportunities when compared to low-voltage content for Electrical Architecture or the base internal combustion engine content for powertrain. By 2025, we believe that over 30% of all vehicles produced will include some form of electrification, with roughly half of those utilizing 48-volt technologies. And as we've discussed, both the Powertrain business and RemainCo are well positioned to benefit from the trend of electrification, providing strong growth opportunities in years ahead. Today, we have roughly $400 million of electrification revenues, which have grown at a compound rate of over 50% per year but again off of a fairly low initial base. Approximately $300 million of these revenues are high-voltage electrical distribution and connection systems offered through our Electrical Architecture segment with the balance from the Powertrain electronics products that are part of our Powertrain segment. We've booked over $7 billion in vehicle electrification programs over the last 6 years, which we expect will translate into revenue growth in the range of 40% per year over the next few years. Now turning to Slide 11. Our new business awards with Volvo Geely serve as further validation of our vehicle electrification strategy for the China market, the largest electrification market in the world. China is forecasted to lead the global trend in powertrain electrification, representing over 50% of unit production in 2025, reflecting a 40-fold increase over today's levels. We remain optimistic about the China market as a result of the underlying macro trends, which include increased government focus on emissions regulations, which are increasing demand for China's new energy vehicles; increased consumer demand for active safety and infotainment and user experience technologies; and accelerated penetration of higher-contented SUVs and luxury vehicles. As a result of the underlying macro trends and our related business strategy, we've had double-digit revenue growth year-to-date, roughly 8 points above market in China, led by roughly 80% growth in GDi, over 60% growth in active safety revenues and over 20% growth in connectors and cable management revenues. A record $5 billion of year-to-date bookings in the region reflects a more balanced blend of local Chinese customers, representing 2/3 of the bookings in the region. And as a result, our key growth technologies in China are forecasted to grow over 50% per year for the foreseeable future. Another example of the work we're doing in this region includes our recent automated ride-and-drive event from the Shanghai Auto Show. The event was very well received as customers and other key stakeholders came away excited about the social and environmental benefits of advanced driver assistance systems. Moving to Slide 12. We're focused on the safe, green and connected operations of the vehicle as we move towards a more connected and automated mobilities environment, validating our technology in standing up new mobility solutions that is going to be critical to providing solutions to our customers and unlocking value for our shareholders. As a result, we're selectively expanding our automated driving pilot programs, which are terrific opportunities to commercialize our autonomous technologies, including automated mobility on-demand and data analytics solutions. Now we've previously discussed our automated mobility on-demand taxi service in Singapore's one-north business park. During the quarter, we also announced our Transdev partnership in France, where we will have several vehicles in operation in 2018. Now as a reminder, Transdev is a leading mobility service provider, operating over 43,000 vehicles in multiple municipalities globally. Our partnership with Transdev will combine their universal routing engine and remote control command software with Delphi's centralized sensing localization and planning automated driving platform, which we're developing in partnership with Mobileye and Intel. We believe this partnership will help accelerate the development of a robust automated vehicle solution and provide a clear path to commercialization. We're also pleased to announce that we have reached agreement on a smart city pilot in the city of Boston. Leveraging our activities in Singapore and France, we're collaborating with Transdev in Boston to develop a commercially viable service, with similar Level 5 operations, fleet management and mobility cloud services. We're also partnering with AT&T in Boston to provide vehicle to infrastructure solutions that demonstrate the value of vehicle data analytics for efficient city operations and equitable access to mobility. As part of the combined efforts with Transdev and AT&T, we'll be establishing a local software development presence in Boston, which will provide us with further access to top engineering talent in critical fields such as data analytics, machine learning and artificial intelligence. These pilots collectively underscore the broader momentum in our autonomous driving in smart city collaborations. We look forward to further highlighting our strategy and technology roadmaps during our Investor Day on September 27 in Boston. Joe will take you through the details of that event later, and I look forward to seeing many of you there. With that, I'll hand the call over to Joe to take us through the second quarter results and our updated outlook for 2017. Go ahead, Joe.
Joseph Massaro:
Thanks, Kevin. Good morning, everyone. Slide 14 provides a summary of our second quarter financial performance.
Organic revenue growth of 5% was led by strong growth in E&S and Powertrain despite the declining market this quarter. Our EBITDA margins expanded 20 basis points on a pro forma basis to 17.7%, and operating margins also expanded 20 basis points to 13.6%. Earnings per share grew 13%, primarily due to year-over-year operating income growth and a lower tax rate. We generated operating cash flow of approximately $600 million, an increase of 8% from prior year levels. And we returned $173 million of cash to shareholders, including $95 million of share repurchases. Turning to Slide 15. Let's look at revenue in the quarter in greater detail. Beginning with a walk on the left. On a pro forma basis, excluding Mechatronics, price downs of 1.9% and FX and commodity headwinds of $47 million came in better than expected. Adjusted sales growth of 5%, well above the 1.5% decline in global vehicle production for the quarter, was driven by Europe and Asia, including strong active safety growth and new infotainment launches in E&S, accelerating gas and commercial vehicle volumes in North America and China in our Powertrain business. South America was up over 15% in the quarter, albeit off a relatively low base. And North America revenue was flat, reflecting a 3% market decline. Growth in Electrical Architecture was negatively impacted by tough year-over-year comparisons, including the impacts of lower FCA volumes from the previously discussed program cancellations as well as production ramp-downs and certain new model transitions. Turning to operating income growth. Slide 16 walks the year-over-year change in the quarter. Operating income was $587 million, and operating margins were 13.6%, up 20 basis points adjusting for the sale of Mechatronics. Strong volume flow-through and positive net performance was partially offset by FX and commodity headwinds. Overall, another quarter of strong year-over-year performance, having lapped certain operational challenges we had last year. Turning to the segments on Slide 17. Let's start with Electrical Architecture on the left. Sales were flat in the quarter, as mid-single-digit growth in our connector and cable management product lines and 44% growth in high-voltage electrification was offset by the previously mentioned program cancellations and OEM production cuts. Electrical Architecture margins declined 50 basis points as a result of flat sales, combined with launch costs in the quarter associated with planned second half launches. Moving to Electronics and Safety. Adjusted revenue grew 19% in the quarter, driven by new infotainment launches and higher penetration of active safety products. As Kevin referenced, our strong win rates and bookings in active safety continues to give us confidence in the outlook for 50-plus percent active safety growth this year and next. E&S margins were 11.2%, down 10 basis points versus the prior year, as strong volume flow-through was offset by increased investments in automated driving, which accounted for approximately 100 basis points of margin in the quarter. We remain on track with our original automated driving spending plan for the year of $50 million to $60 million and expect the costs to ramp in the second half of 2017. Powertrain delivered 7% organic growth, with strong double-digit gains in power electronics, Gas Direct Injection and commercial vehicles. Powertrain margins expanded 200 basis points due to strong volume flow-through and benefits from prior period restructuring actions. Our full year Powertrain outlook continues to contemplate a mid-single-digit decline in light-duty diesel revenues, which is being more than offset by strong double-digit growth in GDi, commercial vehicles and power electronics, giving us confidence in our outlook for mid-single-digit organic growth overall. In summary, all of our businesses delivered above-market growth and performed at or better than expectations despite a more challenging macro environment. Slide 18 walks our EPS year-over-year, which grew 13% versus Q2 2016, driven by organic sales growth, a lower year-over-year tax rate, lower interest expense from last year's debt refinancing and a lower share count. As a result, EPS was $0.06 higher versus the midpoint of our guidance range. Slide 19 provides an update on key macros reflected in our updated full year outlook. Relative to our prior guidance, we are seeing faster growth in active safety, infotainment and GDi as recent launches with new customers have been strong, and we expect this activity to continue through 2017 and into next year. FX and commodities are also driving higher reported revenues, particularly the strengthening euro, which we initially planned at $1.05. Our second half estimate now assumes the euro at $1.08, reflecting levels similar to what we saw in the first half. Moving to the right side. We remain mindful of certain cautionary indicators, which we believe could put pressure on production in the second half. We have reflected these in our latest outlook for the year, which now includes a 2% decline in North American production from 2016 levels versus our initial estimate of flat. As a result, our view of global vehicle production is that it will now be down slightly for the year, representing a decrease of approximately 1% from our prior expectations. As we have consistently demonstrated, we are relentlessly focused on improving our cost structure and can quickly flex in response to varying market conditions. For example, we've proactively targeted $20 million in annual cost savings to help mitigate the impact of lower volumes in North America and we'll begin taking actions in the second half of 2017. Turning to Slide 20. We've provided our guidance for the third quarter and updated outlook for the year. The third quarter outlook reflects $4.05 billion of revenue at the midpoint, up approximately 3% organic or 3.5 points above market, driven by double-digit growth in E&S and mid-single-digit growth in Powertrain, offsetting weaker North American production, which is primarily impacting Electrical Architecture. Margins are expected to be up approximately 30 basis points, reflecting continued volume growth and operating performance, partially offset by the previously mentioned ramp in automated driving investments in E&S. Earnings are expected to be in the range of $1.52 to $1.58 per share, up 8% at the midpoint. Revenues for the year are now expected in the range of $16.85 billion to $17.05 billion, $250 million higher at the midpoint. Adjusted operating income is now expected to be $2.27 billion at the midpoint, with margins up approximately 20 to 30 basis points year-over-year. Earnings per share are now expected in the range of $6.55 to $6.75, a $0.10 increase at the midpoint, driven by higher operating income and the benefit of a slightly lower tax rate. Cash flow guidance now reflects July payment to settle the unsecured creditors litigation of $310 million, and it's expected to be $1.85 billion net of that payment. In summary, we are confident in our raised outlook for the year, reflecting strong sales growth and operational performance versus the original guidance we set earlier this year. Turning to Slide 21 for a brief update on the status of the Powertrain spin transaction. As we discussed last quarter, the outcome of the separation will be 2 independent and well-positioned companies. Since the announcement in early May, we have filed our draft Form 10 and completed our initial assessments of capital structure planning. We are pleased with the progress made to date, and the team remains on track to complete the spin-off by March 2018 as planned. In the meantime, both teams are executing well and are excited to share their visions for the future at the upcoming investor conference on September 27 in Boston. There, we will provide a more in-depth review of both RemainCo and SpinCo as well as informative discussions around our technology roadmaps and long-term planning frameworks. And as always, we will be featuring some of our latest innovations. I'd like to hand the call back to Kevin for his closing remarks.
Kevin P. Clark:
Thanks, Joe. Let me summarize on Slide 22 before opening the call to Q&A.
We delivered another solid quarter, driven by continued strong demand for industry-leading technologies and solid operating execution. This positive momentum gives us confidence in our increased guidance for the full year, which reflects the strength of our first half financial results. We continue to work tirelessly on increasing the efficiency and the flexibility of our cost structure and have been focused on positioning our business for the future as we work towards completing the spin-off of the Powertrain business. We're encouraged by the overwhelmingly positive feedback from customers, from partners and from our employees that we have received since announcing the spin-off transaction, which reinforces the industrial logic and the significant growth opportunities on the horizon for both companies. Each company will benefit from strong foundations of industry-leading advanced technologies, favorably aligned to evolving industry trends, each with increased flexibility to pursue strategies that will better position them to solve their customers' biggest challenges, resulting in accelerated revenue and earnings growth and increase shareholder value. We look forward to sharing more with you on that front at our upcoming Investor Day on September 27. So with that, I'm sure there's some question. Let's open up the line, operator, to Q&A please.
Elena Rosman:
Kayla, we will now take our first question.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from the line of Rob Lache (sic) [ Rod Lache ] from Deutsche Bank.
Rod Lache:
I just had a couple of questions. One is if you could just clarify the outlook for the second half in the Electrical Architecture business. Is that headwind still going to continue through the end of the year from some of the canceled contracts? And also on the Electronics and Safety business, obviously, phenomenal growth, but there are some costs that you're incurring in R&D and, presumably, other places. If you can just give us a sense of what the underlying conversion is or what the -- some of those headwinds are.
Kevin P. Clark:
Sure. Go ahead, Joe.
Joseph Massaro:
Yes. Rod, so yes, I think, listen, when we talk about Electrical Architecture, there's a couple of things. We obviously have been discussing some pass car cancellations in last year as we set guidance that primarily impacted that business. We're continuing to see softness in pass car in North America, some in the first half. We expect a little more in the second half. And then we're going through to fairly significant truck SUV launches at the moment that will really come in, in '18. So we sort of got the costs in a lot of them, the wind-down of the older model to deal with this year and the expected ramp coming next year. So with respect to revenue, would expect that business to, primarily because of North America and the items I just discussed, have similar to slightly down revenue for the balance of the year. We will see margin expansion for the year, though, in that business. They've done a nice job with performance, so we're still expecting that business to be up about 30 basis points of margin on a year-over-year basis. So this quarter, a little flat, just given the timing of some of the production cuts versus some of the launch costs. But on a full year basis, still expect margins to expand 30 basis points.
Kevin P. Clark:
And do you want to talk about investment in automated driving in E&S?
Joseph Massaro:
Sure. So we're still on track for the $50 million to $60 million for the year. We see that ramping in the back half of the year. So about 60% of it will be spent in the back half. That's what you see coming out in the E&S margin. And in Q2, that was worth, as I mentioned, about 100 basis points of margin expansion in the E&S business.
Rod Lache:
Great. And just lastly, on the Powertrain business, any initial thoughts on expected capital structure for the SpinCo? And do you think you can sustain that kind of mid-single-digit growth rate even with maybe some stronger headwinds from diesel going forward?
Joseph Massaro:
Yes, right -- let's hit the growth rate first. A mid-single-digit growth is where we see this business of between 4% and 6% over the next couple of years. Again, strong trajectory in the gas technology businesses and the power electronics, helped by commercial vehicles certainly this year. Also, light-duty diesel is still down about 3%. So from what we're seeing, very consistent with our guide on that and would not expect that to change.
Kevin P. Clark:
Yes, Rod, if I can chime in. On the growth piece, to Joe's point, we've talked about light-duty diesel. And obviously, that's a headwind. So we have about $1 billion -- just under $1 billion of light-duty diesel business. About $600 million of that is specific to light-duty diesel in Europe. We see that declining. Joe talked about the light-duty diesel growth rate but declining at kind of low to mid-single digits over the next couple of years in Europe, which basically equates to a, call it, $300 million headwind as it relates to light-duty diesel. We think there's a portion of that light-duty diesel business that continues to grow outside of Europe or within Europe and globally on light commercial vehicles. And then, as we've said, we've seen strong growth in heavy-duty diesel, medium-duty diesel and certainly Powertrain electrification that more than offset the headwind related to light-duty diesel. With respect to Powertrain and capital structure, and Joe should chime in on this. Listen, our capital allocation strategy as a company, we think, is best-in-class. We think it's served us well, and we would expect the Powertrain business to continue with a very similar strategy on a go-forward basis.
Joseph Massaro:
Yes, Rod, over the course of the quarter, we have firmed up discussions with rating agencies and such. So it's consistent, I think, with our initial thoughts that this would be a high-quality sub-investment grade sort of, call it, BB-type company from across the board from the agencies, very much aligned with expectations. And we'd expect RemainCo post-spin to hold these ratings.
Rod Lache:
Okay, so consistent leverage on both sides? Or is there...
Joseph Massaro:
Yes. Yes, no, it is -- yes, no it's going to be [indiscernible]. It's going to be about a left pocket, right pocket. So I would think both of them -- think both businesses right around 2x leverage and just basically shifting the burden -- the debt burden to Powertrain commensurate with the EBITDA move over.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Joseph Spak from RBC Capital Markets.
Joseph Spak:
I guess, just -- thanks for all the additional color on the segment puts and takes for the back half. But just to summarize, the lower top end of the organic growth guidance, I mean, it sounds like that is really just related to sort of the lower overall industry volume. Is that if a fair assumption? So like, really, the rest of the stuff was mostly expected?
Joseph Massaro:
Yes. I think that's the right assumption, Joe, and it's mostly North America. It's -- and it's 2 things. I think we've planned -- we've got a big truck SUV transition we're working through. And I think we've mentioned before in the past, that's going to be lumpy quarter-to-quarter. But we're on the old platform and we're on the new platform. So we may bounce a little bit from a quarter-to-quarter perspective, but we'll come out in a very good place on the new platform. We've got another large truck launch that's going to hit in '18 in that Electrical Architecture business. So we were working through that. I think what we're now seeing is just slowdown in North American pass car. I think a couple of BOEs have talked about it last week. We went from Q2 sort of normal -- what I'd call normal levels of summer shutdowns, and we're starting to see increase and have been notified of increased shutdowns. But again, I think this is all public in terms of what they're talking about. That's basically what we're reflecting on that revenue guide.
Joseph Spak:
Okay, perfect. And then on the -- I thought the disclosure on the bookings growth certainly by RemainCo and SpinCo was pretty interesting. I mean, the -- I mean, it seems like what you're classifying as growth in key technologies is actually -- looks like a bigger part of, on a percent basis, in Powertrain versus RemainCo. I mean, as we think about those 2 companies going forward, is there going to be greater catch-up in RemainCo? And is that part of that just because you're accounting that since 2011 and some of the more electrification and active safety efforts are more recent?
Kevin P. Clark:
Yes, Joe, I think, it underscores, quite frankly, the strength of that Powertrain business. And it gets back to the question that Rod asked with respect to capital structure, right, that at the end of the day, what's important for us is that we position this business to pursue the opportunities that are in front of it to appropriately service customers and to invest. And there's some terrific opportunities on the side of GDi and variable valve train and power electronics and others that are really going to drive growth there. As it relates to RemainCo, similarly, RemainCo is the larger base number in absolute terms. So you got to a bit careful of percentages. But when you look at the growth opportunities in active safety, 50% plus, when you look at infotainment growth in the area of 15% to 20%, when you look at high-voltage electrification on the Electrical Architecture side extremely strong. And then engineered components growth, you have very, very solid growth businesses within each business' portfolio.
Joseph Spak:
Okay. And then Joe, one quick housekeeping. I think in the quarter, there's a -- to get back to the adjusted number, the $17 million reserve for unsecured creditors. I think that was a positive in the first quarter and or -- and then a reversal this quarter. So was that just sort of timing or something coming a little bit different or...
Joseph Massaro:
I think it's the other way around, Joe. We had originally accrued a higher number just based on our estimates. And then the settlement of $310 million was a little better than that. So you see the $17 million coming back in the second quarter.
Joseph Spak:
Yes, no, that's what I meant. Sorry if I said it backwards, yes.
Joseph Massaro:
Yes.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of David Leiker from Baird.
David Leiker:
Kevin, if you could, Audi A8, we've been talking about that for a while and the Z-Fast controller on that and Delphi's involvement with it. I don't know that there's been a discussion of everything that you're doing on that vehicle and, in particular, everything that the Z-Fast controller is responsible for it. Could you flesh that out a little bit?
Kevin P. Clark:
Yes, I can walk through that. So listen, I -- we've had a long-term relationship with Audi, as you know. We've been working on the Z-Fast controller with them over the last couple of years. As you know, it just launched and will continue to launch over the next year or so. And when you look at it, there's both, what we call, a Z-Fast light as well as a Z-Fast high-end configuration. So the light basically reflecting Level 2, the higher end reflecting Level 3. Content on it includes drivers seat sensor module. It includes camera and visioning technology. It includes a controller itself. It includes radar technology, ultrasonic sensing as well as some of our connections in Electrical Architecture systems. So it's a very robust, very robust product.
David Leiker:
Okay, great. And then on a different note. As you're going across the 2 businesses, I know there's a lot of talk in the industry of disruptors coming into the space, particularly from a Tier 1 perspective. Can you talk if you're seeing any changes in that competitive landscape, if there's anybody new coming in there, anybody dropping off?
Kevin P. Clark:
And you're talking about specifically as it relates to multidomain controllers and...
David Leiker:
Well, no, really across the business. There's an argument out there that the tech companies are going to come and take over all the work for the Tier 1s and [indiscernible] with the Tier 1s.
Kevin P. Clark:
Yes, listen, I'm -- yes, and I'm familiar with that argument. And listen, a number of those players who are allegedly coming in and taking over the industry, coming into the industry are, quite frankly, partners that we do business with. I think one of the recognitions from both the technology players outside of the industry as well as the industry itself is the complexity of performance, complexity of quality, the complexity related to how you need to architect the vehicle to do all the things that the industry consumers are asking vehicles to have, whether it be autonomous driving or active safety or infotainment or more clusters in a car. All that requires more signal distribution, higher compute powers. And those are areas where, typically, those players don't have those capabilities. Players like us do. I would say, to be candid with you, that is a space where actually, based on our dialogue with customers, we're seeing less or fewer competitors. And that if you're not a player who has a meaningful position in areas like active safety today, which we think the incremental benefit of being in the Electrical Architecture business puts us in a very, very unique position, that is really an area that's overly complex and too difficult to get into because you're really talking about the underlying architecture of the vehicle. And that's something that, David, that we'll, quite frankly, talk -- you'll hear us talk more and more about including at the Investor Day in September.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Itay Michaeli from Citi.
Itay Michaeli:
Just going back to the second half organic growth, Joe. Could you maybe share what Delphi's North America revenue -- how that splits between cars and light trucks segment? And then kind of how you see your North America production second half relative to Delphi's North America revenue second half?
Joseph Massaro:
Yes, so Itay, we're -- in North America, Holdco is about 65% SUV truck versus pass cars. So we've worked very hard to position that -- the business in that way over the last few years, and that continues to hold and hold well. Its bookings, quite honestly, probably actually a little stronger than that as you look out over the truck programs we're launching. So that looks good. I think as we think about the North American market for the year, we're thinking, as I mentioned, it's down 2 points for the year. Delphi revenue growth, I would call it, 2.5 points above market. So 0.5 point to a little bit better than that.
Itay Michaeli:
Great, that's helpful. Then as a follow-up and maybe for Kevin on Slide 12. When you think about Delphi's role in future automated mobility on-demand, how should we think about the different opportunities you have, both the vehicle, of course, and Level 4? But also, should we think about potential services revenue, fleet management? And kind of how should we size that up in terms of the long-term opportunity for Delphi?
Kevin P. Clark:
Well, listen, the -- as we've talked about before, the data opportunity in this industry is huge. And as an industry, we've just scratched the surface. We think mobility on-demand and specifically the business opportunities we have -- the fleet management firms or what I'd call the mobility on-demand providers, put us in a position where there's both opportunity within the vehicle from a data standpoint, but there's also real opportunity outside the vehicle. And those are the -- those are what we are evaluating now. Those are the reasons why we're doing these smart city pilots with a select group of partners. And you'll hear us talk more about our plans as we firm them up.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Brian Johnson from Barclays.
Brian Johnson:
Yes, two questions, one on the accounting, the other more strategic -- not accounting, on the quarter. Powertrain incremental is very strong, 30%. A couple of questions. You mentioned restructuring saves. What quarter do we start lacking those? And second, around Powertrain. To what extent was there good commercial diesel volume? And did that help the incrementals?
Kevin P. Clark:
Joe, do you want to...
Joseph Massaro:
Brian, I think on the restructuring that we've talked, that's really, for 2017, that we expect the business to be up well over 100 basis points for the year. That's really where the restructuring benefits come into. Next year, we'd expect it to return more to our normal expected margin expansion, call it, 20 to 40 basis points. So this is really where you see the year of the step change. Commercial vehicle revenues were up about 20% in the quarter, very strong North America helping that. And I actually think it's a -- it's strong North America, but it's also representative of the types of customers we have. We're on very strong global players, global platforms from a CV perspective in our Powertrain business.
Brian Johnson:
Okay. Second question is more strategic and sort of a RemainCo opportunity set. Not to focus on Tesla, but I think apart from the marketing and the brand, sort of the whole data architecture, Electrical Architecture, OTA updates, data harvesting and sending it back to the cloud seems to be ahead of most of the legacy industry. And of course, they're out there talking about whether [indiscernible] goals for reducing the complexity of wiring in the cars while increasing the function. Can you give us a sense of a few things in that area? Kind of, one, over time, what's the content opportunity in Delphi when, on the one hand, there's more data, more centralized controllers? On the other hand, is it realistic to think there'll be fewer kilometers of wires? And then just second, given the big need to re-architect the data in Electrical Architecture of their vehicles, where are the legacy industry on this? And is it becoming more of a priority for them?
Kevin P. Clark:
Yes, Brian, I think that's a great question. Listen, I -- Tesla is, as you know, an important customer of Delphi. We're their primary wire harness provider, I would say. So they're certainly a customer that we're familiar with from a strategy standpoint. I think as it relates to their current dialogue about wire in the car, I mean, the reality is, from a manufacturing standpoint, simplification and automation in a cost standpoint, they're trying to reduce the amount of wire in the car. On the flip side, the number of flex circuits and other cables that's necessary to optimize that, quite frankly, adds content, at least, near term. I think, as it relates to the dialogue about architecture within the industry, I think it's a dialogue that you're starting to see -- we're starting to have more discussions with, principally, as you can imagine, with the European and, principally, with the European German luxury OEs. And I think I believe it's really the realization of everything going into the car requires an architecture that is somewhat different, you optimize signal distribution, that you have more compute power, and software is a bigger competent of the overall value proposition or what's necessary to drive the technology and drive the capabilities. And that's something, quite frankly, beginning with Audi a couple of years ago and the Z-Fast controller, that's something that we're front and center with, with a number of OEs today and it's, quite frankly, something that we're trying to drive.
Brian Johnson:
And in terms of timing when those would show up in bookings and eventually in program launches?
Kevin P. Clark:
Well, listen, I think Z-Fast [ the first ] will have more that are -- that will be coming out in 2019 and beyond. I think in terms of real meaningful change to the architecture of the car, that's out 5-plus years, right? That's as you'll see more adoption of Level 3 and then ultimately Level 4, Level 5 autonomous driving. And you'll see more displays, more content going into the infotainment system and into the cockpit.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Chris McNally from Evercore ISI.
Chris McNally:
My question is around the acceleration of organic and outgrowth from this sort of current 5% level to something better in 2018, 2020, as your key growth drivers become larger portions of the portfolio. And I think you've been pretty explicit with the 7 secular drivers from some of the analyst days. And I really just wanted to drill down into Electrical Architecture specifically. And kind of my question is, can we get back to this 4% to 5% type organic growth, which it seems to be the drag on the overall top line? We talked about the truck changeover. But in a 0% production environment, and I guess, we're still in the early stages of the EV ramp, is that possible? Or do we have to wait for sort of electrification to be further along to hit sort of that mid-single-digit for that division?
Joseph Massaro:
No, you won't -- Chris, we won't wait that long. I mean, even in '18, you'll see a bump-up in growth just as we get through the truck SUV transition and pass car settles out. So this business will have the growth over market. I think there is -- it comes from its -- in part, from its scale, its platform concentration on higher contented vehicles Audi Q7s, GM truck SUVs. We'll be launching another big North American truck platform next year. So that growth will come back in '18. As I said, this, for us, is a -- the confluence of the truck transition, which we knew about and was factored in on top of the pass car decline in North America.
Kevin P. Clark:
Yes, and just to be clear -- just to be real clear on it. The revenue growth in that business back half is really affected by 2 discrete items, and it's North America-specific and it's passenger car-specific and it's truck turnover. They moved through it to a new platform. So it's very discreet, and it's for a very short period of time. And as you look at 2018, you'll have a business that returns to growing, as we said historically, roughly to maybe a little bit 2 points over the market. So the E/EA revenue growth from the back half of this year is very discrete. As it relates to overall accelerated growth over the market, listen, I think at Investor Day and not to steal the thunder, I think you're going to hear us continue to say, we got strong bookings, we're in strong positions. But I think our guidance on a go-forward basis is we're going to continue to commit to roughly 5 points of growth over the market because we don't, in fact, control some of the decisions that OEs make as it relates to production schedules. And we always want to be in a position where, quite frankly, we're not explaining why organic growth isn't as strong and in a position explaining why it was better than what we originally forecasted.
Chris McNally:
Kevin, no, that's really clear. I really appreciate it. I mean, should we at least think about, though, if the EA is growing, like you said, maybe in a normal environment, which starts next year after the changeover is 2 points above market, we do get a nice material step-up, though, as we hit the end of the decade when full EV and plug-in start to take off because of the acceleration and the content per vehicle pickup that you talked about.
Kevin P. Clark:
Yes. I think if you look at our bookings and growth in bookings on key technologies, you look at revenue growth rates on key technologies, both within what will be RemainCo as well as Powertrain, again, I think it's fair to surmise and look at it and say that the profile of both businesses are higher growth. However, having said that, again, we don't control vehicle production schedules by OEs. And we want to limit the situation or the risk of ever having to explain to you folks why growth wasn't what we communicated.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Adam Jonas from Morgan Stanley.
Adam Jonas:
First question, just following up on the -- on Tesla. In addition to the wiring harness, where you mentioned you're the primary supplier there, could you confirm -- well, first, what else do you do for the Model 3, for example, that you might have disclosed or care to disclose now?
Kevin P. Clark:
Yes, it's principally Electrical Architecture.
Adam Jonas:
Okay. Can you confirm that Elon's comment of taking the wiring length, and I know that's not the only to way to judge the value of the system, but let's say the kilometer down by roughly 50% from Model S to Model 3?
Kevin P. Clark:
Yes. I think they're working to reduce the amount of length, I can confirm that. I'm not going to give specifics as to exactly how much.
Adam Jonas:
All right. But you also supplied the Model S wiring as well, correct?
Kevin P. Clark:
No, we don't.
Adam Jonas:
Okay. I was just curious, if in an environment where we cut wiring length, are you able to fully offset the value of the Electrical Architecture through the connectors? Or is it kind of moving back [indiscernible]?
Kevin P. Clark:
Yes. Listen, yes, I think, at the end of the day, from an architecture standpoint, we don't just provide wire, right? So I think at the end of the day, when you talk about what's going into a vehicle from a complexity standpoint, when you talk about everything that they're putting in from a technology standpoint, the reality is that requires more complex architecture, which is a mix of not only length of wire but type of wire, whether it's carbon fiber or copper as well as number of connection points. So as you look at content growth for Delphi on those vehicles over a period of time, that specific OE, content growth has actually increased from a broad architecture standpoint.
Adam Jonas:
Kevin, just a couple of follow-ups, Foxconn. Do you have a relationship with that company right now on the automotive side?
Kevin P. Clark:
No, no.
Adam Jonas:
Is there an interest or are there -- I don't know if you can confirm discussions or feeler or anything else. Do we have a relationship?
Kevin P. Clark:
We have -- I guess, in theory, we could have a relationship. I don't have anything to confirm. We don't have a relationship today. I don't know your what your question is alluding to.
Adam Jonas:
Well, it's just that Foxconn wants to make cars according to the Chairman. That's all. That they want to supply -- make vehicles. Okay, fine. Then just the last one quick. There's 145,000 employees at RemainCo. What would that number be on a kind of if you were to include the nonconsolidated, principally Chinese operations? I didn't know if there was like a broader number. I believe that the 145,000 is just the consolidated employees but [indiscernible]
Joseph Massaro:
Yes. No, that's total, Adam. And it's Joe. This for a lot of years. I mean, we're at this point, either own or majority control all the operations in China and have fully consolidated them. So that's the all-in number.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Ryan Brinkman from JPMorgan.
Ryan Brinkman:
Just what spins into the Powertrain business comprise exactly what was in that division prior to the announcement of the spin or some product groups that sat in one division or another going to transfer between them prior to the spin? I asked just in part because I wasn't aware as the takeaway from Slide 10 seems to imply that the spin match will have at least more incremental, you clarified, leveraged electrification than the E/EA business. Maybe that was always the case, and I just underappreciated it.
Kevin P. Clark:
No, Ryan. It's fine. So not to -- and we maybe caused confusion with you. Quite frankly, the power electronics business, which is powertrain-specific electrification, so outside of Electrical Architecture high-voltage wiring connectors, had historically sat within our E&S business. About a year ago -- a little over a year ago, we moved that into our Powertrain business because there was more dialogue with powertrain experts within our customer base about power electronics. And given that, that was where the customer interface moved to, we thought it would best fit within that Powertrain business and that Powertrain segment. So within Powertrain, we have the traditional powertrain product line from a gas fuel injection, diesel fuel injection and powertrain products, power electronics as well as the aftermarket business, which is principally powertrain product-related.
Ryan Brinkman:
Got it, that's helpful. And in power electronics, to be clear, that has relevance not just for electrification of internal combustion engines but for pure electric vehicles, too?
Kevin P. Clark:
Yes.
Joseph Massaro:
Yes, that's correct. It's the full product line. So your inverters, converters, those types of battery packs, those types of products.
Ryan Brinkman:
Great. And then just finally, in light of all of this leverage we've been talking about to electrification of internal combustion engines of the spin and also to pure electric vehicles and then also combined with obviously the diesel headwinds, et cetera, on the light-duty side, what are the latest talks in terms of the SpinCo's kind of normalized organic growth relative to light vehicle production?
Joseph Massaro:
I mentioned earlier, we have high confidence in that mid-single digit range. That accounts for light-duty diesel deterioration being offset by growth in the heavy-duty diesel business as well as the power electronics and the gas technologies. I think in -- the way to think about it, if you focus on that roughly $950 million of revenue -- light-duty diesel revenue in Powertrain, about $550 million of that is pass car. So it's a relatively small number when you start to frame it. The rest light-duty diesel is actually commercial vehicles not under the same types of pressures sort of, what I call, political and social pressures is light-duty pass car. So that's $550 million we see coming down and say it halves over the forecast period. So your -- we can ring fence that revenue leakage pretty -- it's a pretty straightforward calculation.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of David Lim from Wells Fargo Securities.
David Lim:
Just quickly, you talked about the SUV transition for you guys. Is the new vehicle that you guys on or the replacement vehicle, is that of higher content?
Kevin P. Clark:
It's a little bit more. Roughly the same, a little bit more.
Joseph Massaro:
And we expect it to grow over its life, too. They typically do. They'll add more content as the vehicle matures.
David Lim:
Got you. And then on the power electronics, I think, in Q1, you guys mentioned $600 million of wins. Is there a number you guys could offer for Q2? I know you guys gave a lot of numbers, but I just want to be sure what your power electronics wins were in Q2.
Joseph Massaro:
Yes, Q2 was strong as well. It was over $1 billion in power electronics bookings.
David Lim:
Got you. And then a little bit on the longer term on electrification. I mean, a lot of headlines regarding solid-state battery technology and the application on -- on the applications even on the CV side. If there was a truly a breakthrough over the next several years, any kind of thoughts on how that would impact your Powertrain business? Or do you see that not happening as rapidly as maybe one would think?
Kevin P. Clark:
Listen, are you talking about Powertrain electrification? Is the question related?
David Lim:
Yes. So like, what's -- what we're hearing is Toyota's breakthrough on solid-state batteries to really extend the range and reduce the weight. Now if there was truly a breakthrough there, would you -- would we see a faster-than-normal [ seed ] shift to electrification, whether that be light vehicle and commercial vehicles? And then the consequential impact on SpinCo, if you would?
Kevin P. Clark:
Yes. Listen, on -- electrification is good incrementally for both businesses. So let me start with that. So both benefit -- both businesses benefit, whether it's full EV or it's mild hybrid or its plug-in hybrid. It is a positive trend for both. The content per vehicle opportunity is well in excess of what our average CPV is today on a vehicle, whether it has an internal combustion engine or related to low-voltage Electrical Architecture, which is in a standard car. To the extent vehicle electrification ramps up, it's a net benefit for both businesses. The ability for it to accelerate, there is an opportunity there. But I think you need to think about infrastructure and other things that, quite frankly, will limit the amount of -- or the ability to accelerate things to some certain level. As it relates to commercial vehicle, our view on electrification and commercial vehicle from an industry standpoint is there's an opportunity there for light commercial vehicle, maybe for last mile on heavy-duty commercial vehicle, Class 8 commercial vehicle. But just given the dynamics in that industry and that market, it's going to be a diesel -- heavy-duty diesel business for quite a long time.
Operator:
And our final question comes from the line of David Tamberrino from Goldman Sachs.
David Tamberrino:
I think I caught that you mentioned your ADAS bookings being strong year-to-date at about $2 billion. Is that what I heard?
Joseph Massaro:
Yes.
Kevin P. Clark:
Yes.
David Tamberrino:
So that's pretty nice growth and acceleration over the past couple of years of about $1 billion, I think, you mentioned last year [ $1.8 billion ] in total. Are you seeing an acceleration in the market for RFPs? Is your win rate higher or lower within that market? And then what level of ADAS are we seeing being quoted or requested the most from the OEM standpoint?
Joseph Massaro:
Yes, I mean, it's -- so level of activity -- multiple questions. Level of activity, absolutely. And our win rate on that level of activity, I think we're close to 100% on the programs that we're bidding on. So level of activity has certainly gone up. What's driving that is really democratization of active safety and further penetration in the more mature markets and then more rapid adoption in emerging markets like China. So we foresee, as we talked about, active safety growing over 50% this year and continue to 50% clip next year. So very, very strong growth. What levels it tends to be, anywhere between Level 1 and what I'd call Level 2 plus, there are some programs like Z-Fast that have 3 capabilities. But those are -- those tend to be rarer and tend to be with the luxury German OEs today.
David Tamberrino:
Understood. Within your response you mentioned of the programs you're bidding on, can you widen that out a little bit? How much larger is the market relative to what you're bidding on today? And what's bifurcating what you are going after than what you are going after?
Kevin P. Clark:
David, I'm not sure I can give you an exact number. It's obviously a big market. It's growing roughly mid-teens. Every OE is focused on it. And if you can imagine at a 50% growth rate in revenues and roughly the same from a bookings standpoint, we're getting all the business that we can pursue at this point in time when you look at allocation of resources.
David Tamberrino:
Understood. And just the last one for me. Infotainment wins, you've had a lot. Over the past couple of years, you start to come in 15% to 20%. Is this all display audio product? Is it some embedded navigation? And what are you seeing, at least, from a bidding activity from the OEMs going forward?
Kevin P. Clark:
Yes, it's a mix. I say we're seeing more activity -- or the area that we're more focused on, quite frankly, are areas where we have integrated cockpit controller so where we start with the architecture. So yes, Joe was saying, they tend to be mid- to high-end. It's about compute power, it's about graphics capability, and it's about scalability. So we're really focusing our efforts on strategic relationships that the medium to high-end sort of infotainment levels where contents going to grow and you're going to see more displays in the car.
David Tamberrino:
Got it. Has there been any fundamental change in your win rates what you're seeing there, following the acquisition by one of the larger competitors last year by Samsung?
Kevin P. Clark:
Listen, we have a solid win rate. Bookings levels have been extremely strong this year. Opportunities are a little bit more back half-loaded than what they've been in previous years, but we have some significant opportunities that we think we're in a great position to [indiscernible].
Joseph Massaro:
Yes, that $1.2 billion win in Q4 that we announced of the German luxury OE, that was a conquest win at a very -- on a very high-end system. So we think our product offering and our ability to take sort of the centralized computing know-how we have into that infotainment space is helping to drive that.
Operator:
That concludes the Delphi Q2 2017 Earnings Conference Call. Thank you for joining. You may now disconnect, and have a great day.
Operator:
Good morning. My name is Kim, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Delphi Q1 2017 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions]
Thank you. Elena Rosman, Vice President of Investor Relations, you may begin your conference.
Elena Rosman:
Thank you. Good morning, Kim, and thank you for -- everyone for joining Delphi's First Quarter 2017 Earnings Conference Call. To follow along with today's presentation, our slides can be found at delphi.com under the Investors section of the website.
And consistent with prior calls, today's review of our actual and forecasted financials exclude restructuring and other special items and will address the continuing operations of Delphi. The reconciliations between GAAP and non-GAAP measures are included in the back of the presentation and the press release. I also want to mention that during the first quarter, we adopted a recent accounting pronouncement that changes the presentation of net pension and postretirement benefit costs but has no impact to overall net earnings. This has been reflected in our Q1 2016 and Q1 2017 financial results as well as our financial guidance for the remainder of 2017. Additional details of the prior period impacts are included in the appendix of today's presentation. We have also presented our Q1 2016 financials on a pro forma basis excluding the results of our Mechatronics divestiture, which we sold at the end of last year, and provided a reconciliation in the appendix of our presentation as well. Please see Slide 2 for a disclosure on forward-looking statements, which reflects Delphi's current view of future financial performance, which may be materially different from our actual performance for reasons that we cite in our Form 10-K. Joining us today will be Kevin Clark, Delphi's President and CEO; and Joe Massaro, CFO and Senior Vice President. As seen on Slide 3, Kevin will provide a strategic update on the business including an overview of today's portfolio announcement, and then Joe will cover the financial results and our outlook for 2017 in more detail. With that, I would like to turn the call over to Kevin Clark.
Kevin P. Clark:
So thanks, Elena. Good morning, everybody. Thanks for joining us. Before Joe gets into our financial results, I'll provide highlights around the first quarter and then spend some time discussing this morning's announcement of our plans for a tax-free spin-off of our Powertrain segment into a new independent company.
Starting with the first quarter. Our results reflect a great start to the year with a positive trend we saw in the fourth quarter continuing including strong growth in revenue, operating margin and earnings per share and new business awards driven by the strength of our technology portfolio. Based on our results, we remain confident in our 2017 outlook. Staying on Slide 5. The spin transaction we announced today reflects the company's continued evolution and positioning to strengthen our capabilities to solve our customers' biggest challenges and drive increased value for our shareholders. The convergence of the technologies underpinning the safe, green and connected megatrends, is driving the need for an exponential increase in computing power and faster signal distribution to deliver increased vehicle safety and connectivity. At the same time, more stringent regulatory requirements targeting reduced CO2 emissions and improved fuel efficiency are requiring increasingly complex powertrain technologies. As the pace of change accelerates and the needs of our customers continue to evolve, we feel now is the right time to establish 2 strong strategically, well-positioned companies, each with a great portfolio of relevant technologies, a global footprint, a lean and flexible cost structure and the financial flexibility to pursue organic and inorganic growth opportunities, all of which translate into a compelling growth outlook. Turning now to Slide 6. Since our IPO in 2011, we've been executing our strategy to strengthen our business and expand our capabilities through organic investments, acquisitions and minority investments in key technologies, all aligned to the safe, green and connected megatrends. We optimized our portfolio with actions that better positioned us to leverage the industry secular growth trends. And as a result, we've built an industry-leading portfolio of high-value technologies that include strong foundations in smart vehicle architecture solutions such as centralized computing; power and signal distribution; high-value connection systems and cable management; sensing and computing domain expertise, which enhances our active safety, autonomous driving, connected car and data analytics capabilities; and powertrain technologies such as Gas Direct Injection, power electronics and variable valve train. During the same period, it's become clear that our customers' needs are rapidly changing. The technologies underpinning vehicle electrification, autonomous driving and vehicle connectivity are converging as these systems all require smart vehicle architecture, which leverage the capabilities of our Electrical Architecture and Electronics and Safety businesses. And advanced engine management solutions are requiring a more focused strategy to introduce new propulsion technologies including electrification to meet the increasingly stringent regulatory landscape. Moving to Slide 7. Upon completion of the spin transaction, our Electrical Architecture and Electronics and Safety businesses will combine to be a global technology leader with unparalleled strength in smart vehicle architecture, centralized computing platforms as well as fully integrated systems for advanced safety, autonomous driving, infotainment and user experience as well as vehicle connectivity and data management. This business will include 145,000 employees, more than 15,000 engineers, have annual revenues of $12 billion and operating margins of almost 14% and over $19 billion of new business awards in 2016. Our Powertrain business will also be a global technology leader, focused on optimizing vehicle propulsion systems by enhancing environmental efficiency and vehicle performance through advanced fuel injection and valve train technologies as well as power electronics. This business will be a supplier to both original equipment manufacturers and aftermarket customers. It will have over 20,000 employees with more than 5,000 engineers and revenues of approximately $4.5 billion, industry-leading operating margins of 11.5% and new business bookings of almost $7 billion in 2016. Now Liam Butterworth, currently President of the Powertrain segment, will be the company's President and CEO. The company will be chaired by Tim Manganello, the former Chairman and CEO of BorgWarner and current Delphi board member. Both Tim and Liam are talented, well-respected powertrain leaders with proven track records, making them ideally suited to lead the new company into the future. In summary, the outcome will be 2 independent and well-resourced companies with the flexibility to invest and grow even faster and more profitably than they are today. Turning to Slide 8. You can see our vision for Electrical Architecture and Electronics and Safety businesses, which is to enable smart mobility architectures. We're seeing a paradigm shift in the vehicles' computing power, its connectivity and the ecosystem that support it. The technologies in these 2 businesses are uniquely positioned to deliver end-to-end smart mobility solutions, integrating smart vehicle architecture with mobility computing platforms, serving as the only provider of both the brain and the nervous system of the vehicle. As a stand-alone company, this business will focus its resources and investment to accelerate the commercialization of advanced technologies and systems for active safety, for autonomous driving, data services and infotainment while providing the high-speed sensing and networking architecture that is required throughout the vehicle. No other company will be better positioned to advance integrated high-speed sensing and networking and software-enabled vehicle features for their customers. Slide 9 captures our vision for the Powertrain business, which, simply put, is to enable advanced vehicle propulsion through engine management, software and electrification solutions. Our comprehensive portfolio for optimizing vehicle propulsion enables regulatory compliance while at the same time enhancing the performance of the vehicle. In addition to helping our customers meet the increasingly stringent regulatory standards, our technologies unlock the power needed to support the ever-increasing electrical content being added to the vehicle. As a stand-alone powertrain company, the business will have increased flexibility to further enhance its portfolio of advanced technologies and leverage its systems integration capabilities to solve the propulsion challenges of the future, which will accelerate the growth in powertrain electronics, advanced gasoline systems and powertrain products. Turning to Slide 10. As I mentioned, the two companies will benefit from well-balanced portfolios, each with sizable addressable markets, which provide the opportunity for long-term, sustainable growth as we continue to partner closely with our customers to meet their evolving needs. So in summary, we believe today's announcement is great for all stakeholders, creating two well-positioned companies for the long term, each with very strong management teams with long-standing customer relationships and proven track records, leading portfolios of advanced technologies that solve their customers' biggest challenges and strong operating discipline, delivering more revenue growth, more margin expansion, earnings and cash flow generation, all of which will drive long-term shareholder value. So with that, I will hand the call over to Joe to take us through the first quarter results, our outlook for 2017 and key transaction details. Joe?
Joseph Massaro:
Thanks, Kevin, and good morning, everyone.
Beginning on Slide 12. Delphi had another quarter of strong new business bookings across the portfolio totaling $6 billion, following record-breaking levels in the fourth quarter. As you can see from the chart on the left, key growth technologies including active safety, electrification, infotainment user experience and advanced gas systems have represented an increasing portion of our bookings since 2011 and that trend continued into the first quarter, putting us on track to exceed last year's record of almost $26 billion of bookings. Our core businesses, representing established product lines that form the foundation for many of our new technologies, continue to see new bookings growth as well. On the right side of the chart, we highlight several key wins including a major power electronics win from Geely and Volvo for production in both Asia and Europe, a global active safety win with a large North American OE, a significant Electrical Architecture conquest win with SGM in China; and an infotainment user experience conquest win with a large OEM in Europe. In summary, another great quarter of business wins. Slide 13 provides a summary of our first quarter financial performance. As Kevin said, we are very pleased with our solid start to the year. Organic revenue growth in the quarter was 9%, led by strong growth in every region and business. Our EBITDA margins expanded 20 basis points on a pro forma basis to 16.5% and operating margins expanded 20 basis points to 12.5%. As Elena mentioned, the adoption of a new pension accounting standard resulted in a $7 million reclass of certain pension costs from operating expense to other expense with no impact to net earnings. Earnings per share grew 23%, primarily due to strong volume flow-through, partially offset by FX and commodity headwinds, the results of some benefit from a slightly lower-than-expected tax rate. We generated an operating cash flow of $290 million, well above prior year levels, and we returned $270 million of cash to shareholders in the quarter, including approximately $200 million of share repurchases, on track for the $600 million share repurchase target for the year. Turning to Slide 14. Let's look at revenue in the quarter in greater detail, beginning with the walk on the left. On a pro forma basis, excluding Mechatronics, price-downs of 1.8% and FX and commodity headwinds of $82 million were in line with expectations. Adjusted sales growth of 9%, well above 4% global vehicle production for the quarter, was driven by stronger growth in Europe and Asia including higher take rates on active safety and new infotainment launches in E&S, strength in our Powertrain business driven by strong growth in gas and commercial vehicle volumes in North America and China. Also south America was up over 15% in the quarter, albeit off a relatively low base. Turning to operating income, Slide 15 walks the year-over-year change in the quarter. Operating income was $537 million, up 10%, and operating margins were 12.5%, up 20 basis points, adjusting for the sale of Mechatronics. Price, FX and commodity headwinds all partially offset strong flow-through in volume growth. We experienced a net $26 million performance headwind in the quarter related to 2 separate commercial settlements, which I will cover in a moment, partially offsetting positive performance gains. Overall, another quarter of strong year-over-year performance, having lapped certain operational challenges we had last year. Turning to the segments on Slide 16, let's start with Electrical Architecture on the left. Sales grew 4% in the first quarter driven by double-digit growth in HellermannTyton and solid growth in the power and signal distribution businesses. E/EA margins expanded 50 basis points due to improved performance, partially offset by the expected unfavorable timing of copper escalations in the quarter. Powertrain delivered 8% organic growth with double-digit gains in power electronics, Gas Direct Injection and variable valve train. Powertrain margins expanded 250 basis points due to strong sales flow-through and a $17 million favorable commercial settlement related to a previously disclosed program cancellation in 2016. Without this settlement, margins would have expanded 100 basis points to 12.2%. As we have discussed, our guidance includes a continued decline in light-duty diesel revenues in Europe. However, our balanced portfolio of leading gas and commercial vehicle solutions is driving continued strong growth, giving us confidence in our outlook for mid-single-digit organic growth in Powertrain in 2017 and beyond. Moving to Electronics and Safety. Adjusted revenue grew 27% in the quarter, driven by new infotainment launches and strong active safety take rates. E&S margins were 5.9% negatively impacted by a commercial settlement of a warranty matter, which had a $43 million impact in the quarter. Without this settlement, E&S margins would have been 11.1%. Regarding our investments for growth. Our outlook continues to reflect a spending ramp in automated driving and software and service investments expected to be made over the course of the year. Slide 17 walks our EPS year-over-year, which grew 23% versus Q1 2016, driven by organic sales growth, lower year-over-year tax rate, interest expense and share count. EPS was $0.14 higher versus the midpoint of our guidance, of which $0.12 was attributable to stronger volume and operating performance and $0.02 was the result of a more favorable tax rate. Turning to Slide 18. We've provided our guidance for the second quarter and outlook for the year. Our guidance for the second quarter reflects $4.2 billion of revenue at the midpoint, up 5% organic or 6 points above market, driven by double-digit growth in E&S, mid-single-digit growth in Powertrain and low single-digit growth in E/EA, all in line with our prior expectations. Margins are expected to be up 10 to 30 basis points, reflecting continued improvement in operating performance partially offset by our planned E&S investments. Earnings are expected to be in the range of $1.62 to $1.68 per share, up 9% at the midpoint. Despite a strong start to the year, we are maintaining forecast for revenues to be up mid-single-digit organic in the range of $16.5 billion to $16.9 billion. While there are puts and takes by market, we continue to plan for flat global vehicle production and monitor the cautionary market trends. However, if volume is stronger than expected, we're in a good position to capitalize on stronger flow-through. For the full year, we are reflecting the reclassification of pension costs from cost of sales and SG&A to other expense, effectively moving those costs below the line so no impact to earnings per share. Operating income is expected to be $2.26 billion with margins up approximately 30 basis points year-over-year at the midpoint. And earnings and cash flow are in line with prior guidance. Turning to Slide 19. Kevin talked about our portfolio transformation at the onset of today's call, and now I'd like to take a minute to reflect on Delphi's performance over that same time period. Aligning our portfolio to the safe, green and connected megatrends has allowed us to grow at an average rate of over 5% per year organically since 2010. And operating income margins will have expanded 500 basis points to 13.5%, evidence that our relentless focus on managing our costs has allowed us to further increase our operating leverage. More income yields more cash as cash flow from operations has more than doubled over that time period, driven by strong earnings growth, lower taxes and effective capital management. Increased cash flow has translated into more opportunities to drive shareholder value through disciplined and accretive deployment. We've returned roughly $5 billion to shareholders since the IPO through dividends and share repurchases, and during that time, we spent over $2 billion on M&A, supplementing our portfolio with higher-growth, higher-margin businesses. We will continue to have a disciplined and balanced approach to capital allocation, focused first on investing in our businesses organically through growth investments and engineering and CapEx and inorganically through accretive M&A. As a result, we have generated industry-leading returns for our shareholders with total shareholder returns of over 300% since our IPO, more than double the S&P return over that same period, validating that we know how to grow, execute and outperform in any environment. With that in mind, let's turn to Slide 20 where I'll walk you through the spin transaction timing and expectations in more detail. The transaction will be structured as a pro-rata tax-free distribution to our shareholders, which we expect to complete by March of 2018. Once completed, the two companies will be stand-alone, public entities with individual management teams focused on accelerating disciplined revenue growth while continuing Delphi's track record of expanding margins, increasing cash flows and accretive capital deployment. Over the coming months, we will be providing additional financial and transaction details including the SpinCo Form 10, which we expect to file with the SEC in June. In addition, we are planning to present the strategic and financial outlooks for both companies at our annual investor conference in the fall. As Kevin discussed at the onset of today's call, we're excited about the incremental value that can be created by these 2 companies going forward. I'd like now to hand the call back to Kevin for his closing remarks.
Kevin P. Clark:
Thanks, Joe. Let me summarize on Slide 21 before turning it over for Q&A.
Delphi delivered another strong quarter with solid revenue and earnings growth, which was a continuation of the positive trend we saw across the company over the course of 2016. Our great start gives us confidence in our outlook for the full year, as Joe said:
mid-single-digit organic revenue growth, 30 basis points of margin expansion and double-digit earnings growth.
We remain committed to staying in front of evolving market dynamics and trends to ensure that our business is always positioned to deliver significant value to our customers and outsized returns to our shareholders. We believe the strategic rationale for the spin-off of our Powertrain segment reinforces that commitment. By creating two well-positioned companies aligned to evolving industry trends, each with increased flexibility to pursue distinct strategies that will better position them to solve our customers' biggest challenges, accelerate revenue and earnings growth and increase shareholder value. So with that, we'll open up the call for questions.
Elena Rosman:
Thank you, Kevin. We'll now take our first question.
Operator:
Your first question comes from the line of Rod Lache from Deutsche Bank.
Rod Lache:
Congratulation on this move. I think it's going to be very well received. I had a couple of questions on the spin. First, can you just give us a sense of how you're thinking about the capital structure of the new co versus the RemainCo. And if we were to think about how overhead costs would be allocated, so we'd obviously see what you guys reported on a segment basis for EBIT and EBITDA, if we were to adjust that for what the company would look like on a stand-alone basis.
Kevin P. Clark:
Sure. Joe, you want to?
Joseph Massaro:
Rod, it's Joe. So we're still early days working through the capital structure obviously and that process will commence at a quicker pace postannouncement. But we'd expect RemainCo to maintain its investment-grade rating. There will be a dividend from SpinCo to RemainCo for some deleveraging to do that. Those exact amounts and the exact structures, again, it's something we'll work through over the next 2 months as we -- following up from the announcement. As it relates to overhead costs, a couple of ways to think about it
Kevin P. Clark:
Rod, if I can add to Joe's comments. Just philosophically, listen, our view on this transaction is the best time to do something like this is when businesses are doing well and you're coming off a position of strength. Our philosophy, as it relates to capital allocation and use of cash, I think, obviously, it's driven value for our shareholders and that's something, a philosophy, that we certainly would maintain at RemainCo and certainly would expect some mix of that to remain with this spun Powertrain business.
Rod Lache:
It makes sense. And I was also hoping you can maybe talk a little bit about the expected growth rate that you've got for the Powertrain business, what you've assumed in terms of light-vehicle diesel. And then kind of more broadly, there's a lot of discussion about consolidation in both spaces. There've been some articles about -- even the Delphi Powertrain business, but certainly in electronics and software and so forth. And just what is your perspective on -- in the participation of each of those businesses vis-a-vis industry consolidation?
Joseph Massaro:
Sure, Rod. It's Joe. I'll take the light-duty diesel question and Kevin can follow up on your second part. So our view right now, and this has been very consistent over really the last year plus, we have light-duty diesel revenues, which, for us, is primarily pass car and light commercial vehicle in Europe. We have those revenues decreasing 3% per year over the next couple of years through our forecast period of 2019, effectively following down light-duty diesel penetration in that carpark. At this point, there continues to be discussion and I would say a lot of differing views on that. But we think we're consistent with where our customers are at, we're consistent with what we're seeing in schedules, and certainly, some of the forecasting agencies, their projections of between now and 2019, 2020, light-duty diesel penetration sort of being -- going from the high 40s to the low 40 percentage. So that is unchanged at this point and we think that's the right place to be.
Kevin P. Clark:
Yes. And then to augment that, Rod, listen, when you look -- when you break it down by segment at a high level, our outlook for revenue growth is mid-single digit for Powertrain. So obviously, as Joe's talked about before, very strong growth in the Gas Direct Injection, very strong growth in heavy-duty and medium-duty commercial vehicle, very strong growth in power electronics offsetting that light-duty diesel headwind. As it relates to Electronics and Safety, very strong double-digit growth. Electrical Architecture, low to mid-single-digit growth just given its market position. But we think with the separation of these 2 companies, the increased focus on developing advanced technologies, those are growth rates and profit margins that should actually improve. As it relates to consolidation within the industry, listen, consolidation has been something that's talked about a long time in this industry, both at a OE as well as a supplier level. Our rationale for the CSLP partnership with both Mobileye and Intel was really about how do you leverage the capabilities across the industry, whether it's through formal consolidation or informal partnerships. And listen, we're in areas of technology that are going to require more focused investment, increased investment and I think there are multiple ways to fund that, whether it be through physical consolidation, acquisitions and mergers, et cetera, for less formal or more formal strategic partnerships like we have. Hopefully that answers your question.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Brian Johnson from Barclays.
Brian Johnson:
I want to follow up on that with some more questions around the Powertrain vision. If you take a OEM who wants to, say, do 48-volt and then evolve into a plug-in hybrid, before we've heard about how the different business units within current Delphi worked together on that, can you give us a sense of, A, how bundled or separate those decisions really are; and then B, how that's addressed in this new 2-company structure?
Kevin P. Clark:
Sure. Sure, I'll start, Brian. Listen, from a bundling product standpoint, they're completely separate from a technology and product standpoint. Go-to-market, where it makes sense from a customer standpoint, that's where we partner. We're doing a lot of that now in China and we'd expect by the end of the year to have a few joint programs, one unannounced. Postspin, we'd expect, as long as we are continuing to drive value for each separate, independent business, that's a cooperation that we would continue to have.
Brian Johnson:
So the components that would go into, say, a plug-in hybrid system apart from the electrical architecture, things like inverters, converters, maybe at some point motors, control algorithms, those would be part of Powertrain, not RemainCo?
Kevin P. Clark:
Yes, let me be clear. So all that product portfolio that, about a year ago, we moved out of Electronics and Safety into Powertrain because that's where the decision was being made from a purchase and engineering standpoint. So inverters, converters, all the products that you just mentioned, that will sit within the Powertrain business.
Brian Johnson:
Okay. So I guess that means that Powertrain isn't just a runoff internal combustion engine company, it can participate in the shift in powertrains?
Kevin P. Clark:
No, no. Let me make it really clear. We have a great Powertrain business that's very well positioned, that has a great product portfolio including power electronics. And this is about how do we position it to increase the flexibility, to accelerate investment, to increase growth, increase profitability and to be in a better position to serve our customers.
Brian Johnson:
And have you had any feedback this morning from some of your OEMs?
Kevin P. Clark:
Yes, we've had -- we've spoken to all of our major OEMs and the feedback is all positive.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of David Leiker from Baird.
David Leiker:
Congratulations on this. This is a great move. As we look at the business, are there any structural issues that you would take, that you would look at, either further divestitures or potential places where you're looking to add on onto the 2 businesses?
Kevin P. Clark:
Yes, listen, I wouldn't say we have structural issues or gaps. I think both businesses will look at opportunities to further enhance their product portfolio, whether that be through organic investment or acquisitions.
David Leiker:
Okay. And then one on the quarter here. Good bookings number here again. Can you give a little discussion about what the bidding activity is? And how robust is that? And are you seeing any new players that you're bumping into as you're bidding on new contracts?
Kevin P. Clark:
Yes. Listen, the activity is roughly in line with what we had last year. I think the funnel's actually a little bit larger. We'd expect our bookings this year to be in excess of what we booked last year, which was $26 billion. With respect to new entrants or new players bidding on business, I'm not seeing anything noteworthy. Joe, do you have anything...
Joseph Massaro:
No, nothing from a new entrant perspective. David, I would say that bookings are very lumpy, right? If you looked at '15 and '16, bookings were probably a little more heavily weighted to the beginning of the year. In '17, normal flow, have them a little more weighted to the back end of the year. That would be the only thing I'd point out.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Itay Michaeli from Citi.
Itay Michaeli:
So Joe, I think on Powertrain you mentioned an expectation of continued mid-single-digit top line growth beyond 2017. Hoping we could talk a little bit about, just perspectively and I know it's early days as you kind of go through the numbers, but margin in the next couple of years and whether you anticipated any potential increase in R&D or anything else kind of post the spin for the Powertrain business.
Joseph Massaro:
Well, certainly, from -- I think as a stand-alone business that we'll be able to make capital deployment investment decisions based on where they see that technology going. That business has worked very hard. That team -- Liam and his team have worked very hard to improve the margin structure of that business. And certainly, much like Delphi has done, I think the expectation would be continued margin expansion while investing in new technologies. I certainly wouldn't see that changing. And again, they've done a great job with their footprint rotation and making smart investments in that business. So we'll obviously come out with that later as we get past the Q2 release then to Investor Day, but I don't see any major changes coming from that perspective.
Kevin P. Clark:
Yes. Listen, I would say, thematically, Liam and his team are great operators who have executed really well from a cost structure standpoint, so we'll experience very solid operating margin expansion this year. Into the out years, even with increased investments, I think Liam as well as, you're all familiar with Tim Manganello, they're very focused on revenue growth and profit improvement. So thematically, you would see no change.
Itay Michaeli:
That's very helpful. And just a quick follow-up on the quarter. On the sales growth flow-through, I think it was quite a bit stronger than the past several quarters. Just wondering how we should think about that the rest of the year? Kind of what drove the strength in the quarter? And what are some of the puts and takes to think about as we model that going forward?
Joseph Massaro:
Yes, I think it's very similar to our discussion in the fourth quarter where we saw fairly strong flow-through. We've been forecasting for flat market, continue to do so. To the extent there is volume upside, we will flow stronger. And as we planned, we've talked about -- as we plan for flat volume, that's how we think about capital deployment, that's how we think about investment expense management. So to the extent we get concentrated, first, of higher volume, which we've seen particularly in China, Q4 and Q1 and again in Europe as well, we tend to flow stronger. I would focus on -- I think, our margin guidance that we're providing for the full year, Itay, is where -- is certainly where we're planning to be. And again, we're going back to forecasting flat market, and to the extent there's upsides in various markets, we should flow a little stronger.
Itay Michaeli:
Great. If I could just quickly follow up on that, Joe. Is the strong flow-through on the base business? Or is it also on new backlog, new launches coming through or maybe both?
Joseph Massaro:
It's probably -- it's on both. It's on both. We're getting the volume from new launches. Take rates in E&S, very strong in both China and Europe particularly in active safety and infotainment. But the base business is, particularly in the Electrical Architecture space, is seeing some performance gains after some of the challenges they had last year.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Adam Jonas from Morgan Stanley.
Adam Jonas:
Also, great move. Timing couldn't be better. So I might have missed this earlier on the call, but would you care to comment on those reports that you held recent talks with Continental in combining your respective Powertrain ops?
Kevin P. Clark:
Listen, we don't comment on market rumors so [indiscernible]
Adam Jonas:
Okay, that's fine. I mean, Kevin, I respect that. I do think that if you're not going to categorically deny it, your customers and investors will probably assume you did, but that's neither here nor there. I guess, the question then is there any logic in having -- if you don't comment on that, whether you had talked, is there a logic in potentially having discussions with someone like Conti on getting cost savings and working on growth opportunities for Powertrain?
Kevin P. Clark:
Listen, Adam, I'd answer it this way, we really mean this
Adam Jonas:
All right, I appreciate that. Just one follow-up. You mentioned that -- I think, the way you describe it is that the separation can actually provide a revenue synergy for both companies, that you can actually pursue growth and/or margin expansion opportunity even better separately than together. But I would assume there may be some dissynergies as well that could be netted off against the synergies. I don't know if you could highlight some of the maybe obvious areas of either where you are able to get business when you go to market together or any cost-sharing or other material buy or anything that might be -- we could consider in the net -- netting of it, if you will?
Kevin P. Clark:
Yes -- no, that's a great question. Listen, short term, I think there definitely are some dissynergies. I don't think they're huge, but there are some. Joe alluded to the, let's call it, the corporate or overhead costs. There'll be some duplication for a brief a period of time. There is a benefit in scale, things like sourcing that you just talked about. There's also some benefit with respect to leveraging technology like electronics between, for example, Electronics and Safety as well as our Powertrain business, ease of use. Having said that, given how rapidly this industry is evolving, given how complex the technology is getting, given the amount of convergence that's going on between historically what we refer to as Electrical Architecture and what's going on in autonomous driving and infotainment and user experience, I think being focused, laser focused, is going to drive faster development of technologies, and quite frankly, more revenue benefit and more margin benefit. And I think having two -- both businesses separate gives you more flexibility, gives the management teams more flexibility to make those decisions and maybe not have to assess as many of the trade-offs, Adam.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Chris McNally from Evercore.
Chris McNally:
Congrats again on the strategic decision. So just a slight alteration to some of the questions that have already been asked. So the power electronics, which will remain in Powertrain, I think it's like 60% of your content per vehicle in EV. So I guess, that means you really still have a heavy, if not a positive, transition from internal combustion engine to EVs within Powertrain. I guess my question is does it make sense at some point to get into some of the more hard components, electric motors, drive modules? Or do you think that there's not an advantage to bundling everything that would be relevant to EV?
Kevin P. Clark:
Yes, listen, there is -- as it relates to systems, there always is a benefit from an efficiency and a cost standpoint to have a system. The reality is, though, we have a customer base, most of our customers, to be candid with you, in that area in and around Powertrain like to buy in components. So that's something that you need to be cognizant of. We have -- and Liam and team, I'm sure, will continue to evaluate other areas within their product portfolio in and around EVs or powertrain electronics where they'll decide they want to be in the business versus partnering with somebody who's in the business today and I think that'll be a capital allocation trade-off.
Chris McNally:
Okay. I mean, is the way to interpret that, I mean, it doesn't have to -- you can maybe have collaborations rather than actual capital market mergers of...
Kevin P. Clark:
Yes, I think -- some of the products that you mentioned, our view today is that it's likely some of those become commodity-like and that you're better off buying versus making, and there is a universe out there of very capable suppliers that are happy to partner with a company like Delphi to provide that product in a system.
Joseph Massaro:
Yes, Chris, motors are a good example of that. We have a couple of partnerships in place now in the Powertrain business including a motor provider in China that's a big part of our product offering there. So there are opportunities in the marketplace to do that without deploying capital.
Chris McNally:
Perfect. And if I may, just one real quick follow-up on E&S where you had this big warranty. We've now had sort of 2 quarters in a row where you had warranty expenses that you haven't called out in your non-GAAP items and they've been pretty big. Quite frankly, the 2 quarters would look spectacular if you didn't have these expenses. How do we think about quantifying them going forward? I mean, should we think about them truly as onetime? Or is this the type of thing that could come up on a more regular basis?
Kevin P. Clark:
Well, listen, the two items that you're referring to, fourth quarter and first quarter, related to, let's call it, older technologies that are out there. I'll start and Joe should get into more detail. When you look at warranties, the reality is there's a big chunk of warranty that is lumpy at the end of the day. It's a lumpy expense. And I think, based on that, I think our conclusion was we're better off keeping them in the numbers and highlighting them for you. And Joe, I should...
Joseph Massaro:
Yes. No, Chris, Kevin nailed it. It is lumpy. It's obviously hard to forecast. The way I think about it and the reason we haven't called it out or referred to it as nonrecurring, if you look at the past 5 or 6 years since we've been public, we average about $100 million of warranty expense in a year. Now there's 1 year where just the timing it's $140 million and the next year it's $60 million. But that tends to be the way to think about it. It's not a trend. This is not something we see increasing over time. That range of somewhere right around $100 million per year on a 5- or 6-year base is where we think about it. But in a given quarter, it's just going to stick out a bit. It's going to be lumpy, and again, that's the reason we haven't backed it out and wouldn't advise to.
Operator:
Your next question goes -- comes from the line of David Lim from Wells Fargo.
David Lim:
Kevin and Joe, with this spin-off, can you give us an idea of how the backlog would look between RemainCo and the SpinCo, if you would?
Joseph Massaro:
Yes, well, we've talked about it, if we go to the deck, I think, from a bookings perspective, if you want to use '16 as a proxy of our $26 billion in bookings round numbers, about $19 billion sits in RemainCo, $17 billion sits in Powertrain -- I'm sorry, $7 billion sits in Powertrain. And that ratio is generally consistent.
David Lim:
Got you. And then can you give us some color on how China is sort of unfolding as you see it? I mean, I guess, there are some discussions that maybe Q2 or Q3, there might be a little bit of a chop. But I was wondering, what's your guys' take on it?
Joseph Massaro:
Yes, from our perspective, we're seeing that. We've had China in our full year guidance. It's just 1% growth. Clearly, Q4 was strong, Q1 was stronger than that. We do start to see it catch up to itself, though, obviously, as the year goes on, particularly lapping in Q3 and Q4. We see China market growth actually turning negative in Q4, down 1%, to finish at sort of that 1% for the year, but clearly tailing off from here. But that's been in our guidance from the beginning, it's how we're running the business, and it's what we're seeing on the ground for the most part.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Ryan Brinkman from JPMorgan.
Ryan Brinkman:
Congrats on the quarter and spin. I understand you think the Powertrain business and internal combustion efficiency boost in general is secularly aligned. I heard you say today that you thought maybe Powertrain could grow something like 6% versus the industry, which is forecast by IHS to grow more like 2%. But it's part of the logic behind the spin just the idea that they do exist in the market, these debates about the leverage of the Powertrain business, the secular trends within the industry, whereas there really are no debates about the alignment of the E/EA and E&S businesses and so this transaction would allow the multiple of the RemainCo to fully reflect the potential of the fastest growing parts of the business including autonomous driving, which now rises materially as a percent of total revenue?
Kevin P. Clark:
Yes, Ryan, listen, I think, again, I want to go back, we strongly believe that there's significant growth above vehicle production that sits within the powertrain spaces where we operate. We are very confident of that. We have no doubt. Our view of the concern about the demise of the internal combustion engine, our view is, in 2025, 95% of powertrains are going to be ICE, right, with some electrification, with some amount of EVs and there's tremendous opportunity for growth and profitability serving all those various categories. We think as regulations get increasingly more stringent, especially in Europe and China, the reality is the acceleration of technology serving those spaces would increase and technology development is going to have to be more rapid. Having said that, and it gets to the capital allocation question, there is a view among investors about the value of a Powertrain dollar of earnings versus some of the other businesses we're in. And we believe that having these separate, having more flexibility to decide where investment is made and takes place, possibly having a slightly different makeup of shareholders, results in incremental value at the end of the day for the existing Delphi shareholder base.
Ryan Brinkman:
Okay, great. And then just, lastly, for me, we can see clearly the relative margin of the 3 current businesses, but could you also talk about and how would you rate, on a relative basis, the 3 businesses' current returns on invested capital and cash generation?
Kevin P. Clark:
Yes, I mean, today, when you look at cash generation and return on capital per dollar of revenue, the two highest are in our Electrical Architecture and our Electronic and Safety business, right? E&S is principally software related. We're working to make that or create more of a software model within that E&S business. Electrical Architecture is, I think you all know, a portion of that business is very high-margin, high-growth connectors and engineered components. The other component is Electrical Architecture, which isn't quite as high margin, but has very little capital expense related to it and therefore is a big cash generator.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of John Murphy from Bank of America.
John Murphy:
I surprisingly still have some questions on the spin. I mean, I would imagine you can't comment on specific rumors, but you ran a full process of potentially thinking about a sale or spin here and just came up with the best economic outcome for shareholders, right?
Kevin P. Clark:
Well, we evaluated all alternatives, right, and came up with the conclusion that, to your point, this was the right path to go down to drive value for shareholders and to position the business to best serve our customers.
John Murphy:
Okay. And then if we think about the RemainCo, and you keep calling it the RemainCo and not Delphi, which I find interesting, is there the potential to change the name and rebrand the core RemainCo company something else? And do you think, by doing this, you might get access to capital at a much lower cost because we're seeing some of these new auto tech companies get almost free capital? I mean, would you potentially consider raising capital at lower costs to grow the business in that RemainCo?
Kevin P. Clark:
Well, listen, with respect to names, we actually really like the Delphi name. But having said that, we're going through a whole process now to determine where it best fits and evaluating are there other naming alternatives, whether it sits with the Powertrain business or the RemainCo business.
John Murphy:
Okay. And then potential for capital at lower cost on this new branded company?
Kevin P. Clark:
If the capital is free, you mentioned free capital. I guess, that I'd be supportive of -- I think with respect to raising other capital, I think Joe would have to go through a cost of capital analysis and weigh that versus what some of the options are in terms of deploying it. Joe, do you...
Joseph Massaro:
Yes, John, I mean, we're not certainly at that point yet. I think, as I mentioned, we expect the RemainCo to maintain its investment-grade rating. And much beyond that, we really haven't [ looked into it ].
John Murphy:
Okay. And then, just lastly, the earnings in the first quarter were particularly strong yet you kept the full year guidance largely the same. Is there anything out there that is kind of bugging you or concerning you that would lead you not to raise the guidance? Or is this just steady as you go and relative conservatism?
Joseph Massaro:
Yes, I think steady as you go. It's early in the year, right? We feel from a flat -- forecasting a flat marketing and planning to that has benefited us in terms of just how we deploy our capital, how we manage our costs and allow us to flow a little stronger to the extent there is volume pickup. But it's steady as you go and it's awful early in the year. I think from a -- again, we feel comfortable with our flat forecast. I think what we're looking at, obviously keep an eye on inventory levels, although what we're seeing at the moment, those seem to be building ahead of -- some are shutdowns and some model transitions. Also watching just the continued pass car-SUV mix and what's happening with pass car, particularly in North America. So keeping an eye on those, but again, within our expectations at the moment based on our original forecast.
Kevin P. Clark:
If I can go back to a prior question asked. I'm a little bit -- and you didn't ask it, John, but a little bit remiss with respect to cash flow profile of our business. I didn't mention the Powertrain business. The reality is although that is a business that has the office of being much more capital-intensive, given the nature of the product and the manufacturing process, it's a business, from a cash-generation standpoint, that actually does a very good job. From a return on capital standpoint, it's a bit lower than what we have at E&S and E/EA but still solid returns on invested capital and we're on it.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of David Tamberrino from Goldman Sachs.
David Tamberrino:
Maybe just to follow up there on this flat production, just given where we are with inventories in North America and effectively China as well. The sales environment, it's a little bit slower than what, I think, most folks were thinking about and inventories that continue to pile up. I think we've seen some announced production shutdowns for the summer so far and maybe we need a little bit more. I mean is flat really still the right way to be looking at this right now?
Kevin P. Clark:
Well, listen, let's dissect your question a little bit. In terms of the guidance that we give to Wall Street, the evaluation, the puts and takes, whether it be North America, China, South America, Western Europe, Eastern Europe, yes, we think it's the right way to look at it. With respect to how we operate our business and how we're always positioned, listen, you've heard Joe say this before, we're always aggressively attacking our cost structure to make it more variable, to make it more flexible, to put it in a better position to the extent -- so that to the extent there is any softening in vehicle production, that is something that we can absorb. Joe?
Joseph Massaro:
Yes. No, David, we often answer the revenue or the market question with a cost question first. I mean, we've been very focused on really from late last year on a flat market and what are the implications of that from a cost perspective and we continue to maintain that discipline internally. We'll obviously even be more focused on it now just given the spin-off. But we tend to focus on, first and foremost, on where that cost structure needs to be to maintain our margin expansion and EPS growth commitments. And what we're now viewing is a flat market. Certainly, to the extent that things change, those market concerns materialize, we'd go to what we do very well, which is managing that cost structure.
David Tamberrino:
Okay, understood. That's helpful. If I think about, from a European standpoint, light-duty diesel, we saw the declines in the sales in the first quarter. Have the production schedules from your OEM partners changed to reflect that? And I ask the question because what they were producing in the first quarter wasn't necessarily reflective of what they're selling. So as a result, is there a catch-up, a little bit more of an air pocket for diesel production in the second quarter to get those inventories in line? Or are we not thinking about that the right way?
Kevin P. Clark:
Well, listen, when you think about production schedules, we get production schedules that are 30 to 60 days out with some adjustment at the front end. So I would tell you at least as it relates to the first few months of the second quarter, those would reflect their outlook, their current situations relates to inventory and their outlook for sales.
Joseph Massaro:
Yes, and we have Europe forecasted as a down quarter on a year-over-year basis anyway, so we're not saying anything beyond that.
David Tamberrino:
Okay. And then, I guess, just lastly for me on the Powertrain business. As we think about the competitive dynamic going forward, can you remind us what the current annual price-downs within that business is today on your product lines and then, again, how competitive you think the go-forward is going to be from incremental CapEx and R&D perspective that needs to be spent within the business to pivot it further into a 48-volt all the way through better electric vehicles?
Kevin P. Clark:
Sure, we'll talk about that. It's a business that price-downs average between 1.5% to 2%. So from a pricing standpoint, it's well positioned. From a portfolio standpoint, this business is very focused on serving those areas, where there's only a, quite frankly, a handful of suppliers that have -- that serve that market. And the business works real hard to have technologies that are better than the technologies of its competitors. From an engineering standpoint, our Powertrain businesses spends about 10% of sales. So there's an intensive -- engineering-intensive aspect of that business. Today, that encompasses a lot of the power electronics that we're selling today and under development right now. Liam and team will kind of evaluate, just as they do now, the trade-offs between more investment and where they can offset it in their cost structure to maintain and continue to expand margins, and we'll talk about that more at the Investor Day in the fall.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Matt Stover from SIG.
Matthew Stover:
Two questions and just I guess a riff off of 2 previously asked questions, first is on the cap structure. Typically, on a dividend spin situation like this, we would think that the leverage on the SpinCo would be high. Now the business, as you just referenced, Kevin, has terrific returns, but it has a high operating leverage and capital requirement. And so how should we think about that capital structure for that business given where we are in the cycle relative to sort of normal course behavior?
Kevin P. Clark:
Yes, well, listen, and Joe can give more specifics. Again, this business will have a capital structure that positions it and allows it to continue to invest and grow the business. So I start with that. That's -- at the end of the day, that is how it's going to be positioned. I guess, we could debate a little bit what is high, but in this industry and all of us familiar with the industry, I think we'd be at a fairly tight band on what we consider high. Joe, why don't you...
Joseph Massaro:
Yes. No, Matt, like I said, we're obviously still working through that. Some of that needed to come sort of postannouncement just given who all gets involved with that type of planning. But it will be higher than RemainCos. But at this point, we haven't set an exact level, but to Kevin's point, I mean, our expectation and our goal is that this business is positioned with a capital structure that allows it to operate effectively, allows it to invest and that, I think, from an equity perspective, it fits well within its overall weighted average cost of capital.
Matthew Stover:
Okay. And the second question, you've stated -- I just want to make sure I'm clear on this, but if we look at the Powertrain business, it's going to have access to all the products and IT that would enable that business over the long term to compete effectively in a world that has an electrified drivetrain, whether that be hybrid to EV. Is that the correct way to think about this? Or should I be thinking about this in a different way?
Joseph Massaro:
That is correct, yes. No, we moved -- as Kevin mentioned, we moved our power electronics business, which is inverters, converters, all that type of technology, into Powertrain from E&S over a year ago, I guess, a year ago this time and that business belongs in Powertrain and is going with the spin.
Operator:
I now turn the call back over to the presenters.
Kevin P. Clark:
So this is Kevin Clark. Thank you, everybody, for your time. We appreciate you listening in on our conference call. Have a great day.
Operator:
This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.