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Caterpillar Inc. logo
Caterpillar Inc.
CAT · US · NYSE
346.1243
USD
-4.3557
(1.26%)
Executives
Name Title Pay
Ms. Cheryl H. Johnson Chief Human Resources Officer --
Mr. Derek R. Owens Chief Legal Officer & General Counsel --
Mr. Andrew R. J. Bonfield Chief Financial Officer 3.06M
Mr. William E. Schaupp Vice President & Chief Accounting Officer --
Courtney W. Dean Chief Compliance Officer --
Ms. Jamie L. Engstrom Senior Vice President & Chief Information Officer --
Mr. Joseph E. Creed Chief Operating Officer 2.84M
Mr. Otto Breitschwerdt Chief Technology Officer & Senior Vice President --
Mr. D. James Umpleby III Chairman of the Board & Chief Executive Officer 8.83M
Ms. Denise C. Johnson Group President of Resource Industries 3.1M
Insider Transactions
Date Name Title Acquisition Or Disposition Stock / Options # of Shares Price
2024-07-16 Johnson Cheryl H Chief Human Resources Officer D - S-Sale Common Stock 1508 350
2024-07-15 De Lange Bob Group President D - G-Gift Common Stock 505 0
2024-06-28 SCHWAB SUSAN C director A - A-Award Phantom Stock Units 113 0
2024-06-28 MacLennan David director A - A-Award Phantom Stock Units 50 0
2024-06-26 Creed Joseph E Chief Operating Officer A - A-Award Phantom Stock Units 34 0
2024-06-26 Johnson Denise C Group President A - A-Award Phantom Stock Units 29 0
2024-06-12 MacLennan David director A - A-Award Common Stock 517 328.73
2024-06-12 Johnson Gerald director A - A-Award Common Stock 517 328.73
2024-06-12 WILKINS RAYFORD JR director A - A-Award Common Stock 517 328.73
2024-06-12 Fish James C Jr director A - A-Award Common Stock 517 328.73
2024-06-12 SCHWAB SUSAN C director A - A-Award Common Stock 517 328.73
2024-06-12 REED DEBRA L director A - A-Award Common Stock 517 328.73
2024-06-12 DICKINSON DANIEL M director A - A-Award Common Stock 517 328.73
2024-06-12 Marks Judith Fran director A - A-Award Common Stock 517 328.73
2024-05-30 Johnson Cheryl H Chief Human Resources Officer D - S-Sale Common Stock 1508 340
2024-05-24 Creed Joseph E Chief Operating Officer A - A-Award Phantom Stock Units 32 0
2024-05-24 Johnson Denise C Group President A - A-Award Phantom Stock Units 15 0
2024-05-20 Johnson Gerald director A - P-Purchase Common Stock 100 356.4
2024-05-13 De Lange Bob Group President A - M-Exempt Common Stock 29834 95.66
2024-05-13 De Lange Bob Group President D - F-InKind Common Stock 7987 357.3
2024-05-13 De Lange Bob Group President A - M-Exempt Common Stock 717 74.77
2024-05-13 De Lange Bob Group President D - F-InKind Common Stock 373 356.46
2024-05-13 De Lange Bob Group President D - S-Sale Common Stock 21847 356.9
2024-05-13 De Lange Bob Group President D - M-Exempt Employee Stock Options 29834 95.66
2024-05-13 De Lange Bob Group President D - M-Exempt Employee Stock Options 717 74.77
2024-05-06 DICKINSON DANIEL M director D - J-Other Phantom Stock Units 2931 0
2024-05-01 DICKINSON DANIEL M director D - J-Other Phantom Stock Units 3736 0
2024-05-03 MacLennan David director A - P-Purchase Common Stock 500 337.39
2024-05-01 DICKINSON DANIEL M director A - J-Other Phantom Stock Units 3736 0
2024-04-29 SCHWAB SUSAN C director D - D-Return Common Stock 8579 348.86
2024-04-29 SCHWAB SUSAN C director D - D-Return Common Stock 4302 349.92
2024-04-26 Creed Joseph E Chief Operating Officer A - A-Award Phantom Stock Units 9 0
2024-04-01 Owens Derek CLO & General Counsel D - F-InKind Common Stock 72 365.29
2024-03-28 SCHWAB SUSAN C director A - A-Award Phantom Stock Units 103 0
2024-03-28 MacLennan David director A - A-Award Phantom Stock Units 45 0
2024-03-28 CALHOUN DAVID L director A - A-Award Phantom Stock Units 103 0
2024-03-14 Creed Joseph E Chief Operating Officer A - A-Award Phantom Stock Units 622 0
2024-03-14 Kaiser Jason Group President A - A-Award Phantom Stock Units 352 0
2024-03-14 Johnson Denise C Group President A - A-Award Phantom Stock Units 658 0
2024-03-08 Johnson Denise C Group President A - A-Award Phantom Stock Units 313 0
2024-03-08 Creed Joseph E Chief Operating Officer A - A-Award Phantom Stock Units 267 0
2024-03-08 Kaiser Jason Group President A - A-Award Phantom Stock Units 117 0
2024-03-07 BONFIELD ANDREW R J Chief Financial Officer A - M-Exempt Common Stock 14186 196.7
2024-03-07 BONFIELD ANDREW R J Chief Financial Officer A - M-Exempt Common Stock 15393 219.76
2024-03-07 BONFIELD ANDREW R J Chief Financial Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock 10613 340.39
2024-03-07 BONFIELD ANDREW R J Chief Financial Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock 12138 340.39
2024-03-07 BONFIELD ANDREW R J Chief Financial Officer D - M-Exempt Employee Stock Options 14186 196.7
2024-03-07 BONFIELD ANDREW R J Chief Financial Officer D - M-Exempt Employee Stock Options 15393 219.76
2024-03-04 BONFIELD ANDREW R J Chief Financial Officer A - A-Award Common Stock 3543 0
2024-03-04 BONFIELD ANDREW R J Chief Financial Officer A - A-Award Employee Stock Options 11509 338.65
2024-03-04 Fassino Anthony D. Group President A - A-Award Common Stock 2731 0
2024-03-04 Fassino Anthony D. Group President A - A-Award Employee Stock Options 8871 338.65
2024-03-04 Creed Joseph E Chief Operating Officer A - A-Award Employee Stock Options 16783 338.65
2024-03-04 Creed Joseph E Chief Operating Officer A - A-Award Common Stock 5168 0
2024-03-04 Umpleby III Donald J Chief Executive Officer A - A-Award Common Stock 12181 0
2024-03-04 Umpleby III Donald J Chief Executive Officer A - A-Award Employee Stock Options 39561 338.65
2024-03-04 Kaiser Jason Group President A - A-Award Employee Stock Options 8871 338.65
2024-03-04 Kaiser Jason Group President A - A-Award Common Stock 2731 0
2024-03-04 Johnson Denise C Group President A - A-Award Common Stock 2731 0
2024-03-04 Johnson Denise C Group President A - A-Award Employee Stock Options 8871 338.65
2024-03-04 Johnson Cheryl H Chief Human Resources Officer A - A-Award Common Stock 1846 0
2024-03-04 Johnson Cheryl H Chief Human Resources Officer A - A-Award Employee Stock Options 5994 338.65
2024-03-04 De Lange Bob Group President A - A-Award Common Stock 2731 0
2024-03-04 De Lange Bob Group President A - A-Award Employee Stock Options 8871 338.65
2024-03-04 Schaupp William E Chief Accounting Officer A - A-Award Common Stock 229 0
2024-03-04 Schaupp William E Chief Accounting Officer A - A-Award Employee Stock Options 743 338.65
2024-03-04 Owens Derek CLO & General Counsel A - A-Award Employee Stock Options 8152 338.65
2024-03-04 Owens Derek CLO & General Counsel A - A-Award Common Stock 2510 0
2024-03-01 Owens Derek CLO & General Counsel D - F-InKind Common Stock 53 335.69
2024-02-28 Fassino Anthony D. Group President A - M-Exempt Common Stock 7881 138.35
2024-02-28 Fassino Anthony D. Group President D - F-InKind Common Stock 3306 329.73
2024-02-28 Fassino Anthony D. Group President D - S-Sale Common Stock 4575 329.8
2024-02-28 Fassino Anthony D. Group President A - M-Exempt Employee Stock Options 7881 138.35
2024-02-26 Umpleby III Donald J Chief Executive Officer A - G-Gift Common Stock 8081 0
2024-02-26 Umpleby III Donald J Chief Executive Officer D - G-Gift Common Stock 8081 0
2024-02-23 MacLennan David director A - P-Purchase Common Stock 350 323.37
2024-02-22 Fassino Anthony D. Group President A - M-Exempt Common Stock 7880 138.35
2024-02-22 Fassino Anthony D. Group President D - F-InKind Common Stock 3386 321.95
2024-02-22 Fassino Anthony D. Group President D - S-Sale Common Stock 4494 321.96
2024-02-22 Fassino Anthony D. Group President D - M-Exempt Employee Stock Options 7880 138.35
2024-02-15 Fassino Anthony D. Group President A - M-Exempt Common Stock 14073 151.12
2024-02-15 Fassino Anthony D. Group President D - F-InKind Common Stock 6604 322
2024-02-15 Fassino Anthony D. Group President D - S-Sale Common Stock 7469 322
2024-02-15 Fassino Anthony D. Group President D - M-Exempt Employee Stock Options 14073 151.12
2024-02-13 Creed Joseph E Chief Operating Officer A - A-Award Common Stock 12039 0
2024-02-13 Creed Joseph E Chief Operating Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock 4270 313.4
2024-02-13 Umpleby III Donald J Chief Executive Officer A - A-Award Common Stock 42136 0
2024-02-13 Umpleby III Donald J Chief Executive Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock 16835 313.4
2024-02-13 Fassino Anthony D. Group President A - A-Award Common Stock 12039 0
2024-02-13 Fassino Anthony D. Group President D - F-InKind Common Stock 4830 313.4
2024-02-13 Kaiser Jason Group President A - A-Award Common Stock 2408 0
2024-02-13 Kaiser Jason Group President D - F-InKind Common Stock 605 313.4
2024-02-13 Johnson Denise C Group President A - A-Award Common Stock 12280 0
2024-02-13 Johnson Denise C Group President D - F-InKind Common Stock 4369 313.4
2024-02-13 Johnson Cheryl H Chief Human Resources Officer A - A-Award Common Stock 4213 0
2024-02-13 Johnson Cheryl H Chief Human Resources Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock 1197 313.4
2024-02-13 De Lange Bob Group President A - A-Award Common Stock 12039 0
2024-02-13 De Lange Bob Group President D - F-InKind Common Stock 5334 313.4
2024-02-13 BONFIELD ANDREW R J Chief Financial Officer A - A-Award Common Stock 12520 0
2024-02-13 BONFIELD ANDREW R J Chief Financial Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock 5066 313.4
2024-02-07 De Lange Bob Group President A - M-Exempt Common Stock 30000 95.66
2024-02-07 De Lange Bob Group President D - F-InKind Common Stock 8806 325.87
2024-02-07 De Lange Bob Group President D - S-Sale Common Stock 21194 325.52
2024-02-07 De Lange Bob Group President D - M-Exempt Employee Stock Options 30000 95.66
2024-02-02 BONFIELD ANDREW R J Chief Financial Officer D - S-Sale Common Stock 10000 310.1
2024-02-05 BONFIELD ANDREW R J Chief Financial Officer D - S-Sale Common Stock 7196 332.69
2024-02-05 BONFIELD ANDREW R J Chief Financial Officer D - S-Sale Common Stock 2804 333.13
2024-01-25 BONFIELD ANDREW R J Chief Financial Officer D - S-Sale Common Stock 10000 300.04
2024-01-12 Fassino Anthony D. Group President A - A-Award Common Stock 6887 0
2024-01-12 Johnson Denise C Group President A - A-Award Common Stock 6887 0
2024-01-12 De Lange Bob Group President A - A-Award Common Stock 6887 0
2024-01-01 Kaiser Jason Group President D - Common Stock 0 0
2024-01-01 Kaiser Jason Group President I - Common Stock 0 0
2024-01-01 Kaiser Jason Group President D - Employee Stock Options 7917 253.98
2024-01-01 Kaiser Jason Group President D - Employee Stock Options 8881 219.76
2024-01-01 Kaiser Jason Group President D - Employee Stock Options 12091 196.7
2024-01-01 Kaiser Jason Group President D - Phantom Stock Units 3914 0
2024-01-01 Owens Derek CLO & General Counsel D - Common Stock 0 0
2024-01-01 Owens Derek CLO & General Counsel D - Employee Stock Options 2321 196.7
2024-01-01 Owens Derek CLO & General Counsel D - Employee Stock Options 1649 253.98
2023-12-29 CALHOUN DAVID L director A - A-Award Phantom Stock Units 127 0
2023-12-29 SCHWAB SUSAN C director A - A-Award Phantom Stock Units 127 0
2023-12-26 Johnson Denise C Group President A - A-Award Phantom Stock Units 31 0
2023-12-26 Creed Joseph E Chief Operating Officer A - A-Award Phantom Stock Units 38 0
2023-12-26 Creed Joseph E Chief Operating Officer A - A-Award Phantom Stock Units 45 0
2023-12-18 Umpleby III Donald J Chairman and CEO A - M-Exempt Common Stock 163615 138.35
2023-12-18 Umpleby III Donald J Chairman and CEO A - M-Exempt Common Stock 182944 151.12
2023-12-18 Umpleby III Donald J Chairman and CEO A - M-Exempt Common Stock 75701 127.6
2023-12-18 Umpleby III Donald J Chairman and CEO D - F-InKind Common Stock 51615 286.72
2023-12-18 Umpleby III Donald J Chairman and CEO D - F-InKind Common Stock 115366 286.72
2023-12-18 Umpleby III Donald J Chairman and CEO D - F-InKind Common Stock 133467 286.72
2023-12-18 Umpleby III Donald J Chairman and CEO A - M-Exempt Employee Stock Options 182944 151.12
2023-12-18 Umpleby III Donald J Chairman and CEO A - M-Exempt Employee Stock Options 163615 138.35
2023-12-18 Umpleby III Donald J Chairman and CEO A - M-Exempt Employee Stock Options 75701 127.6
2023-11-24 Johnson Denise C Group President A - A-Award Phantom Stock Units 37 0
2023-10-26 Creed Joseph E Group President A - A-Award Phantom Stock Units 32 0
2023-10-26 Johnson Denise C Group President A - A-Award Phantom Stock Units 38 0
2023-09-29 CALHOUN DAVID L director A - A-Award Phantom Stock Units 136 0
2023-09-29 SCHWAB SUSAN C director A - A-Award Phantom Stock Units 136 0
2023-09-26 Johnson Denise C Group President A - A-Award Phantom Stock Units 34 0
2023-09-26 Creed Joseph E Group President A - A-Award Phantom Stock Units 29 0
2023-09-01 Schaupp William E Chief Accounting Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock 245 285.36
2023-08-30 Fassino Anthony D. Group President D - M-Exempt Common Stock 4141 95.66
2023-08-30 Fassino Anthony D. Group President D - F-InKind Common Stock 1401 282.57
2023-08-29 Fassino Anthony D. Group President A - M-Exempt Common Stock 2693 74.77
2023-08-29 Fassino Anthony D. Group President D - F-InKind Common Stock 721 279
2023-08-29 Fassino Anthony D. Group President A - M-Exempt Common Stock 1447 95.66
2023-08-29 Fassino Anthony D. Group President D - F-InKind Common Stock 496 279
2023-08-30 Fassino Anthony D. Group President D - S-Sale Common Stock 2740 282.57
2023-08-29 Fassino Anthony D. Group President D - S-Sale Common Stock 951 279
2023-08-29 Fassino Anthony D. Group President A - M-Exempt Employee Stock Options 1447 95.66
2023-08-29 Fassino Anthony D. Group President A - M-Exempt Employee Stock Options 2693 74.77
2023-08-30 Fassino Anthony D. Group President A - M-Exempt Employee Stock Options 4141 95.66
2023-08-25 Creed Joseph E Group President A - A-Award Phantom Stock Units 29 0
2023-08-25 Johnson Denise C Group President A - A-Award Phantom Stock Units 34 0
2023-08-09 Johnson Cheryl H Chief Human Resources Officer A - M-Exempt Common Stock 18294 151.12
2023-08-09 Johnson Cheryl H Chief Human Resources Officer D - S-Sale Common Stock 16894 286.27
2023-08-09 Johnson Cheryl H Chief Human Resources Officer D - S-Sale Common Stock 1400 287.06
2023-08-09 Johnson Cheryl H Chief Human Resources Officer D - M-Exempt Employee Stock Options 18294 151.12
2023-08-07 MacLennan David director A - A-Award Common Stock 450 277.21
2023-08-04 Umpleby III Donald J Chief Executive Officer A - G-Gift Common Stock 5114 0
2023-08-04 Umpleby III Donald J Chief Executive Officer D - G-Gift Common Stock 2501 0
2023-08-03 Johnson Denise C Group President A - M-Exempt Common Stock 23736 127.6
2023-08-03 Johnson Denise C Group President A - M-Exempt Common Stock 18012 138.35
2023-08-03 Johnson Denise C Group President D - S-Sale Common Stock 7892 282.54
2023-08-03 Johnson Denise C Group President D - S-Sale Common Stock 16610 284.15
2023-08-03 Johnson Denise C Group President D - S-Sale Common Stock 2300 285.16
2023-08-03 Johnson Denise C Group President D - S-Sale Common Stock 4112 286.31
2023-08-03 Johnson Denise C Group President D - S-Sale Common Stock 10120 283.54
2023-08-03 Johnson Denise C Group President D - S-Sale Common Stock 714 287.57
2023-08-03 Johnson Denise C Group President D - M-Exempt Employee Stock Options 18012 138.35
2023-08-03 Johnson Denise C Group President D - M-Exempt Employee Stock Options 23736 127.6
2023-08-03 DICKINSON DANIEL M director D - J-Other Phantom Stock Unis 9982 0
2023-08-03 Creed Joseph E Group President A - M-Exempt Common Stock 7698 127.6
2023-08-03 Creed Joseph E Group President D - F-InKind Common Stock 3449 284.78
2023-08-03 Creed Joseph E Group President D - S-Sale Common Stock 3037 284.84
2023-08-03 Creed Joseph E Group President D - S-Sale Common Stock 4249 285.55
2023-08-03 Creed Joseph E Group President D - M-Exempt Employee Stock Options 7698 127.6
2023-08-02 BONFIELD ANDREW R J Chief Financial Officer A - M-Exempt Common Stock 30786 219.76
2023-08-02 BONFIELD ANDREW R J Chief Financial Officer A - M-Exempt Common Stock 14187 196.7
2023-08-02 BONFIELD ANDREW R J Chief Financial Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock 11419 289.99
2023-08-02 BONFIELD ANDREW R J Chief Financial Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock 26264 289.99
2023-08-02 BONFIELD ANDREW R J Chief Financial Officer A - M-Exempt Employee Stock Options 14187 196.7
2023-08-02 BONFIELD ANDREW R J Chief Financial Officer A - M-Exempt Employee Stock Options 30786 219.76
2023-08-01 De Lange Bob Group President A - M-Exempt Common Stock 20000 95.66
2023-08-01 De Lange Bob Group President D - M-Exempt Employee Stock Options 20000 95.66
2023-08-01 De Lange Bob Group President D - S-Sale Common Stock 20000 275
2023-07-26 Creed Joseph E Group President A - A-Award Phantom Stock Units 30 0
2023-07-26 Johnson Denise C Group President A - A-Award Phantom Stock Units 36 0
2023-07-26 Creed Joseph E Group President D - A-Award Phantom Stock Units 30 0
2023-07-18 Johnson Cheryl H Chief Human Resources Officer A - M-Exempt Common Stock 6415 127.6
2023-07-18 Johnson Cheryl H Chief Human Resources Officer D - S-Sale Common Stock 6415 260
2023-07-18 Johnson Cheryl H Chief Human Resources Officer D - M-Exempt Employee Stock Options 6415 127.6
2023-06-30 CALHOUN DAVID L director A - A-Award Phantom Stock Units 153 0
2023-06-30 SCHWAB SUSAN C director A - A-Award Phantom Stock Units 153 0
2023-06-26 Creed Joseph E Group President A - A-Award Phantom Stock Units 22 0
2023-06-26 Johnson Denise C Group President A - A-Award Phantom Stock Units 39 0
2023-06-14 CALHOUN DAVID L director A - A-Award Common Stock 698 243.32
2023-06-14 REED DEBRA L director A - A-Award Common Stock 698 243.32
2023-06-14 SCHWAB SUSAN C director A - A-Award Common Stock 698 243.32
2023-06-14 WILKINS RAYFORD JR director A - A-Award Common Stock 698 243.32
2023-06-14 Ayotte Kelly director A - A-Award Common Stock 698 243.32
2023-06-14 Marks Judith Fran director A - A-Award Common Stock 698 243.32
2023-06-14 MacLennan David director A - A-Award Common Stock 698 243.32
2023-06-14 Johnson Gerald director A - A-Award Common Stock 698 243.32
2023-06-14 Fish James C Jr director A - A-Award Common Stock 698 243.32
2023-06-14 DICKINSON DANIEL M director A - A-Award Common Stock 698 243.32
2023-06-07 Long Suzette M CLO/General Counsel A - M-Exempt Common Stock 20529 127.6
2023-06-07 Long Suzette M CLO/General Counsel D - F-InKind Common Stock 15415 231.32
2023-06-07 Long Suzette M CLO/General Counsel D - M-Exempt Employee Stock Options 20529 127.6
2023-05-26 Johnson Denise C Group President A - A-Award Phantom Stock Units 25 0
2023-03-31 SCHWAB SUSAN C director A - A-Award Phantom Stock Units 165 0
2023-03-31 CALHOUN DAVID L director A - A-Award Phantom Stock Units 165 0
2023-03-14 Creed Joseph E Group President A - A-Award Phantom Stock Units 702 0
2023-03-14 Johnson Denise C Group President A - A-Award Phantom Stock Units 821 0
2023-03-10 Johnson Denise C Group President A - A-Award Phantom Stock Units 516 0
2023-03-10 Creed Joseph E Group President A - A-Award Phantom Stock Units 358 0
2023-03-06 Fassino Anthony D. Group President A - A-Award Employee Stock Options 29028 253.98
2023-03-06 Long Suzette M Chief Legal Officer A - A-Award Employee Stock Options 32327 253.98
2023-03-06 Creed Joseph E Group President A - A-Award Employee Stock Options 29028 253.98
2023-03-06 Umpleby III Donald J Chief Executive Officer A - A-Award Employee Stock Options 112156 253.98
2023-03-06 Johnson Denise C Group President A - A-Award Employee Stock Options 29028 253.98
2023-03-06 Johnson Cheryl H Chief Human Resources Officer A - A-Award Employee Stock Options 24410 253.98
2023-03-06 De Lange Bob Group President A - A-Award Employee Stock Options 29028 253.98
2023-03-06 Schaupp William E Chief Accounting Officer A - A-Award Employee Stock Options 2045 253.98
2023-03-06 BONFIELD ANDREW R J Chief Financial Officer A - A-Award Employee Stock Options 34966 253.98
2023-03-02 BONFIELD ANDREW R J Chief Financial Officer A - M-Exempt Common Stock 23095 127.6
2023-03-02 BONFIELD ANDREW R J Chief Financial Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock 16256 249.31
2023-03-02 BONFIELD ANDREW R J Chief Financial Officer A - M-Exempt Employee Stock Options 23095 127.6
2023-03-01 Marks Judith Fran - 0 0
2023-03-01 Fish James C Jr director D - Common Stock 0 0
2023-02-17 MacLennan David director A - P-Purchase Common Stock 400 249.29
2023-02-09 Long Suzette M CLO/General Counsel D - S-Sale Common Stock 6636 250.91
2023-02-09 Long Suzette M CLO/General Counsel D - S-Sale Common Stock 1364 251.65
2023-02-07 BONFIELD ANDREW R J Chief Financial Officer A - A-Award Common Stock 15029 0
2023-02-07 BONFIELD ANDREW R J Chief Financial Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock 5328 248.68
2023-02-07 Fassino Anthony D. Group President A - A-Award Common Stock 4801 0
2023-02-07 Fassino Anthony D. Group President D - F-InKind Common Stock 1551 248.68
2023-02-07 Long Suzette M Chief Legal Officer A - A-Award Common Stock 13359 0
2023-02-07 Long Suzette M Chief Legal Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock 5248 248.68
2023-02-07 Creed Joseph E Group President D - A-Award Common Stock 5009 0
2023-02-07 Creed Joseph E Group President D - F-InKind Common Stock 1972 248.68
2023-02-07 Umpleby III Donald J Chief Executive Officer A - A-Award Common Stock 49260 0
2023-02-07 Umpleby III Donald J Chief Executive Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock 20978 248.68
2023-02-07 Johnson Cheryl H Chief Human Resources Officer A - A-Award Common Stock 4174 0
2023-02-07 Johnson Cheryl H Chief Human Resources Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock 1829 248.68
2023-02-07 Johnson Denise C Group President A - A-Award Common Stock 15446 0
2023-02-07 Johnson Denise C Group President D - F-InKind Common Stock 6083 248.68
2023-02-07 De Lange Bob Group President A - A-Award Common Stock 15446 0
2023-02-07 De Lange Bob Group President D - F-InKind Common Stock 6843 248.68
2023-02-06 DICKINSON DANIEL M director D - S-Sale Common Stock 6070 251.22
2023-02-03 Johnson Cheryl H Chief Human Resources Officer A - M-Exempt Common Stock 14260 138.35
2023-02-03 Johnson Cheryl H Chief Human Resources Officer A - M-Exempt Common Stock 9623 127.6
2023-01-20 Johnson Cheryl H Chief Human Resources Officer D - J-Other Employee Stock Options 18295 151.12
2023-01-20 Johnson Cheryl H Chief Human Resources Officer D - J-Other Employee Stock Options 16039 127.6
2023-01-20 Johnson Cheryl H Chief Human Resources Officer D - J-Other Employee Stock Options 15541 219.76
2022-11-09 Johnson Cheryl H Chief Human Resources Officer D - G-Gift Common Stock 6607 0
2023-01-20 Johnson Cheryl H Chief Human Resources Officer D - J-Other Employee Stock Options 14260 138.35
2023-02-03 Johnson Cheryl H Chief Human Resources Officer D - S-Sale Common Stock 9623 250.68
2023-02-03 Johnson Cheryl H Chief Human Resources Officer D - S-Sale Common Stock 14260 250.27
2023-02-03 Johnson Cheryl H Chief Human Resources Officer D - G-Gift Common Stock 693 0
2023-01-20 Johnson Cheryl H Chief Human Resources Officer D - J-Other Employee Stock Options 12091 196.7
2023-02-03 Johnson Cheryl H Chief Human Resources Officer D - M-Exempt Employee Stock Options 9623 127.6
2023-02-03 Johnson Cheryl H Chief Human Resources Officer D - M-Exempt Employee Stock Options 14260 138.35
2023-01-09 De Lange Bob Group President A - M-Exempt Common Stock 11000 74.77
2023-01-09 De Lange Bob Group President D - S-Sale Common Stock 11000 250
2023-01-09 De Lange Bob Group President D - M-Exempt Employee Stock Options 11000 74.77
2023-01-06 Creed Joseph E Group President A - M-Exempt Common Stock 18294 151.12
2023-01-06 Creed Joseph E Group President D - S-Sale Common Stock 18294 249
2023-01-06 Creed Joseph E Group President D - M-Exempt Employee Stock Options 18294 151.12
2022-12-30 SCHWAB SUSAN C director A - A-Award Phantom Stock Units 157 238.93
2022-12-30 CALHOUN DAVID L director A - A-Award Phantom Stock Units 157 238.93
2022-12-27 Johnson Denise C Group President A - M-Exempt Common Stock 23737 127.6
2022-12-27 Johnson Denise C Group President D - M-Exempt Employee Stock Options 23737 127.6
2022-12-27 Johnson Denise C Group President D - S-Sale Common Stock 23737 240.14
2022-12-27 Creed Joseph E Group President D - M-Exempt Employee Stock Options 7698 127.6
2022-12-27 Creed Joseph E Group President D - S-Sale Common Stock 7698 244
2022-12-23 Creed Joseph E Group President A - A-Award Phantom Stock Units 30 239.87
2022-12-23 Johnson Denise C Group President A - A-Award Phantom Stock Units 37 239.87
2022-12-14 Creed Joseph E Group President A - M-Exempt Common Stock 5003 138.35
2022-12-14 Creed Joseph E Group President D - S-Sale Common Stock 5003 238
2022-12-14 Creed Joseph E Group President D - M-Exempt Employee Stock Options 5003 138.35
2022-11-25 Johnson Denise C Group President A - A-Award Phantom Stock Units 38 235.7
2022-11-25 Creed Joseph E Group President A - A-Award Phantom Stock Units 30 235.7
2022-11-11 Long Suzette M CLO/General Counsel D - S-Sale Common Stock 942 237.19
2022-11-11 Long Suzette M CLO/General Counsel D - S-Sale Common Stock 942 237.37
2022-11-08 Umpleby III Donald J Chairman and CEO A - M-Exempt Common Stock 151402 127.6
2022-11-08 Umpleby III Donald J Chairman and CEO D - F-InKind Common Stock 113927 229.65
2022-11-08 Umpleby III Donald J Chairman and CEO D - M-Exempt Employee Stock Options 151402 0
2022-08-18 Umpleby III Donald J Chairman and CEO D - G-Gift Common Stock 7490 0
2022-10-26 Johnson Denise C Group President A - A-Award Phantom Stock Units 45 196.96
2022-10-26 Creed Joseph E Group President A - A-Award Phantom Stock Units 36 196.96
2022-09-30 SCHWAB SUSAN C A - A-Award Phantom Stock Units 226 165.84
2022-09-30 CALHOUN DAVID L A - A-Award Phantom Stock Units 226 165.84
2022-09-26 Johnson Denise C Group President A - A-Award Phantom Stock Units 54 0
2022-09-26 Creed Joseph E Group President A - A-Award Phantom Stock Units 44 0
2022-09-01 Schaupp William E Chief Accounting Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock 289 181.66
2022-08-26 Johnson Denise C Group President A - A-Award Phantom Stock Units 46 191.92
2022-08-26 Creed Joseph E Group President A - A-Award Phantom Stock Units 37 191.92
2022-07-26 Johnson Denise C Group President A - A-Award Phantom Stock Units 49 181.23
2022-07-26 Creed Joseph E Group President A - A-Award Phantom Stock Units 39 181.23
2022-06-30 SCHWAB SUSAN C A - A-Award Phantom Stock Units 209 179.63
2022-06-30 CALHOUN DAVID L A - A-Award Phantom Stock Units 306 179.63
2022-06-24 Johnson Denise C Group President A - A-Award Phantom Stock Units 48 185.49
2022-06-24 Creed Joseph E Group President A - A-Award Phantom Stock Units 26 185.49
2022-06-08 WILKINS RAYFORD JR A - A-Award Common Stock 816 229.8
2022-06-08 SCHWAB SUSAN C A - A-Award Common Stock 816 229.8
2022-06-08 RUST EDWARD B JR A - A-Award Common Stock 816 229.8
2022-06-08 REED DEBRA L A - A-Award Common Stock 816 229.8
2022-06-08 Johnson Gerald A - A-Award Common Stock 816 229.8
2022-06-08 DICKINSON DANIEL M A - A-Award Common Stock 816 229.8
2022-06-08 MacLennan David A - A-Award Common Stock 816 229.8
2022-06-08 CALHOUN DAVID L A - A-Award Common Stock 816 229.8
2022-06-08 Ayotte Kelly A - A-Award Common Stock 816 229.8
2022-05-26 Johnson Denise C Group President A - A-Award Phantom Stock Units 32 212.99
2022-05-18 Creed Joseph E Group President D - S-Sale Common Stock 2757 214.13
2022-05-05 MacLennan David A - P-Purchase Common Stock 600 219.82
2022-04-21 De Lange Bob Group President A - M-Exempt Common Stock 11718 74.77
2022-04-21 De Lange Bob Group President D - S-Sale Common Stock 11718 237.25
2022-04-20 Long Suzette M CLO/General Counsel D - S-Sale Common Stock 3816 235
2022-04-20 Creed Joseph E Group President D - M-Exempt Employee Stock Options 5004 138.35
2022-04-20 Creed Joseph E Group President D - S-Sale Common Stock 5004 235
2022-04-01 Schaupp William E Chief Accounting Officer D - Common Stock 0 0
2022-04-01 Schaupp William E Chief Accounting Officer D - Employee Stock Options 3095 196.7
2022-03-31 SCHWAB SUSAN C A - A-Award Phantom Stock Units 168 223.81
2022-03-31 CALHOUN DAVID L A - A-Award Phantom Stock Units 246 223.81
2021-03-01 RUST EDWARD B JR director A - A-Award Common Stock 683 0
2016-03-07 RUST EDWARD B JR director A - A-Award Common Stock 1672 0
2022-03-17 Long Suzette M CLO/General Counsel A - M-Exempt Employee Stock Options 20529 127.6
2022-03-17 Long Suzette M CLO/General Counsel D - S-Sale Common Stock 3816 220
2022-03-11 Johnson Denise C Group President A - A-Award Phantom Stock Units 987 215.44
2022-03-11 Creed Joseph E Group President A - A-Award Phantom Stock Units 684 215.44
2022-03-09 BONFIELD ANDREW R J Chief Financial Officer A - M-Exempt Common Stock 18012 138.35
2022-03-09 BONFIELD ANDREW R J Chief Financial Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock 14572 210.53
2022-03-07 Umpleby III Donald J Chairman & CEO A - A-Award Employee Stock Options 130579 0
2022-03-07 Umpleby III Donald J Chairman & CEO A - A-Award Employee Stock Options 130579 196.7
2022-03-07 Long Suzette M CLO/General Counsel A - A-Award Employee Stock Options 32887 0
2022-03-07 Johnson Denise C Group President A - A-Award Employee Stock Options 35788 0
2022-03-07 Johnson Cheryl H Chief Human Resources Officer A - A-Award Employee Stock Options 24181 0
2022-03-07 De Lange Bob Group President A - A-Award Employee Stock Options 35788 0
2022-03-07 Creed Joseph E Group President A - A-Award Employee Stock Options 35788 0
2022-03-07 Fassino Anthony D. Group President A - A-Award Employee Stock Options 35788 0
2022-03-07 BONFIELD ANDREW R J Chief Financial Officer A - A-Award Employee Stock Options 42559 0
2022-03-01 WHITE MILES D director D - F-InKind Common Stock 293 184.43
2022-02-16 Marvel Gary Michael Chief Accounting Officer D - S-Sale Common Stock 674 203.11
2021-07-06 Umpleby III Donald J Chairman and CEO A - A-Award Common Stock 42281 0
2021-07-06 Umpleby III Donald J Chairman and CEO D - F-InKind Common Stock 17984 200.77
2021-07-06 Umpleby III Donald J Chairman and CEO D - G-Gift Common Stock 1520 0
2022-02-08 Long Suzette M CLO/General Counsel A - A-Award Common Stock 12413 0
2022-02-08 Long Suzette M CLO/General Counsel D - F-InKind Common Stock 4781 200.77
2022-02-08 Johnson Denise C Group President A - A-Award Common Stock 13964 0
2022-02-08 Johnson Denise C Group President D - F-InKind Common Stock 5359 200.77
2022-02-08 Johnson Cheryl H Chief Human Resources Officer A - A-Award Common Stock 7371 0
2022-02-08 Johnson Cheryl H Chief Human Resources Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock 2986 200.77
2022-02-08 Marvel Gary Michael Chief Accounting Officer A - A-Award Common Stock 970 0
2022-02-08 Marvel Gary Michael Chief Accounting Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock 296 200.77
2022-02-08 De Lange Bob Group President A - A-Award Common Stock 12413 0
2022-02-08 De Lange Bob Group President D - F-InKind Common Stock 5499 200.77
2022-02-08 Creed Joseph E Group President A - A-Award Common Stock 3879 0
2022-02-08 Creed Joseph E Group President D - F-InKind Common Stock 1122 200.77
2022-02-08 Fassino Anthony D. Group President A - A-Award Common Stock 4073 0
2022-02-08 Fassino Anthony D. Group President D - F-InKind Common Stock 1221 200.77
2022-02-08 BONFIELD ANDREW R J Chief Financial Officer A - A-Award Common Stock 13964 0
2022-02-08 BONFIELD ANDREW R J Chief Financial Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock 5457 200.77
2022-02-07 MacLennan David director A - P-Purchase Common Stock 480 199.5
2022-01-18 Creed Joseph E Group President D - M-Exempt Employee Stock Options 5004 138.35
2022-01-18 Creed Joseph E Group President A - A-Award Common Stock 5004 138.35
2022-01-18 Creed Joseph E Group President D - S-Sale Common Stock 5004 230
2022-01-07 Johnson Cheryl H Chief Human Resources Officer D - M-Exempt Employee Stock Options 6415 127.6
2022-01-07 Johnson Cheryl H Chief Human Resources Officer A - M-Exempt Common Stock 6415 127.6
2022-01-07 Johnson Cheryl H Chief Human Resources Officer D - S-Sale Common Stock 6415 225
2022-01-07 De Lange Bob Group President A - M-Exempt Common Stock 23435 74.77
2022-01-07 De Lange Bob Group President D - S-Sale Common Stock 23435 225
2022-01-07 De Lange Bob Group President D - M-Exempt Employee Stock Option 23435 74.77
2021-12-31 SCHWAB SUSAN C director A - A-Award Phantom Stock Units 181 0
2021-12-31 CALHOUN DAVID L director A - A-Award Phantom Stock Units 266 0
2021-12-23 Johnson Denise C Group President A - A-Award Phantom Stock Units 41 0
2021-12-23 Creed Joseph E Group President A - A-Award Phantom Stock Units 32 0
2021-11-26 Johnson Denise C Group President A - A-Award Phantom Stock Units 43 198.73
2021-11-26 Creed Joseph E Group President A - A-Award Phantom Stock Units 33 0
2021-11-01 Creed Joseph E Group President D - S-Sale Common Stock 5038 204.09
2021-10-26 Johnson Denise C Group President A - A-Award Phantom Stock Units 43 0
2021-10-26 Creed Joseph E Group President A - A-Award Phantom Stock Units 33 0
2021-09-30 SCHWAB SUSAN C director A - A-Award Phantom Stock Units 192 0
2021-09-30 CALHOUN DAVID L director A - A-Award Phantom Stock Units 282 0
2021-09-24 Johnson Denise C Group President A - A-Award Phantom Stock Units 43 0
2021-09-24 Creed Joseph E Group President A - A-Award Phantom Stock Units 34 0
2021-08-26 Johnson Denise C Group President A - A-Award Phantom Stock Units 40 0
2021-08-26 Creed Joseph E Group President A - A-Award Phantom Stock Units 31 0
2021-08-04 MacLennan David director A - P-Purchase Common Stock 500 206.2
2021-07-26 Johnson Denise C Group President A - A-Award Phantom Stock Units 41 0
2021-07-26 Creed Joseph E Group President A - A-Award Phantom Stock Units 32 0
2021-06-30 SCHWAB SUSAN C director A - A-Award Phantom Stock Units 174 0
2021-06-30 CALHOUN DAVID L director A - A-Award Phantom Stock Units 255 0
2021-06-25 Johnson Denise C Group President A - A-Award Phantom Stock Units 40 0
2021-06-25 Creed Joseph E Group President A - A-Award Phantom Stock Units 24 0
2021-06-13 Creed Joseph E Group President D - F-InKind Common Stock 1009 218.79
2021-06-04 Creed Joseph E Group President A - M-Exempt Employee Stock Options 7699 127.6
2021-06-04 Creed Joseph E Group President A - M-Exempt Common Stock 7699 127.6
2021-06-04 Creed Joseph E Group President D - S-Sale Common Stock 7699 245.12
2021-05-26 Johnson Denise C Group President A - A-Award Phantom Stock Units 29 237.71
2021-05-07 Umpleby III Donald J Chairman & CEO D - G-Gift Common Stock 4495 0
2021-05-05 MacLennan David director A - P-Purchase Common Stock 420 237.86
2021-05-03 MacLennan David director A - A-Award Common Stock 470 228.17
2021-05-03 Marvel Gary Michael Chief Accounting Officer D - S-Sale Common Stock 567 230
2021-04-14 MacLennan David - 0 0
2021-03-31 SCHWAB SUSAN C director A - A-Award Phantom Stock Units 161 0
2021-03-31 GALLARDO JUAN director A - A-Award Phantom Stock Units 161 0
2021-03-31 CALHOUN DAVID L director A - A-Award Phantom Stock Units 236 0
2021-03-25 Johnson Gerald director A - A-Award Common Stock 557 224.25
2021-03-25 Johnson Gerald director A - A-Award Common Stock 557 224.25
2021-03-08 Marvel Gary Michael Chief Accounting Officer A - M-Exempt Common Stock 5056 95.66
2021-03-08 Marvel Gary Michael Chief Accounting Officer D - S-Sale Common Stock 5056 220.97
2021-03-08 Marvel Gary Michael Chief Accounting Officer A - M-Exempt Employee Stock Options 5056 95.66
2021-03-08 Long Suzette M CLO/General Counsel A - M-Exempt Employee Stock Options 20529 127.6
2021-03-08 Long Suzette M CLO/General Counsel A - M-Exempt Common Stock 20529 127.6
2021-03-08 Long Suzette M CLO/General Counsel A - M-Exempt Common Stock 16011 138.35
2021-03-08 Long Suzette M CLO/General Counsel A - M-Exempt Common Stock 15480 151.12
2021-03-08 Long Suzette M CLO/General Counsel D - S-Sale Common Stock 8140 219.03
2021-03-08 Long Suzette M CLO/General Counsel D - S-Sale Common Stock 4561 218.91
2021-03-08 Long Suzette M CLO/General Counsel D - S-Sale Common Stock 4044 218.92
2021-03-08 Long Suzette M CLO/General Counsel D - S-Sale Common Stock 8346 219.74
2021-03-08 Long Suzette M CLO/General Counsel D - S-Sale Common Stock 8516 219.69
2021-03-08 Long Suzette M CLO/General Counsel D - S-Sale Common Stock 9704 219.84
2021-03-08 Long Suzette M CLO/General Counsel D - S-Sale Common Stock 2685 220.8
2021-03-08 Long Suzette M CLO/General Counsel D - S-Sale Common Stock 2920 220.68
2021-03-08 Long Suzette M CLO/General Counsel D - S-Sale Common Stock 3104 220.66
2021-03-08 Long Suzette M CLO/General Counsel A - M-Exempt Employee Stock Options 16011 138.35
2021-03-08 Long Suzette M CLO/General Counsel D - S-Sale Common Stock 2469 218.81
2021-03-08 Long Suzette M CLO/General Counsel D - S-Sale Common Stock 3050 219.69
2021-03-08 Long Suzette M CLO/General Counsel D - S-Sale Common Stock 1772 220.84
2021-03-08 Long Suzette M CLO/General Counsel A - M-Exempt Employee Stock Option 15480 151.12
2021-03-08 Johnson Denise C Group President A - M-Exempt Employee Stock Options 23737 127.6
2021-03-08 Johnson Denise C Group President A - M-Exempt Common Stock 23737 127.6
2021-03-08 Johnson Denise C Group President A - M-Exempt Common Stock 18763 151.12
2021-03-08 Johnson Denise C Group President A - M-Exempt Common Stock 18013 138.35
2021-03-08 Johnson Denise C Group President D - S-Sale Common Stock 9141 218.88
2021-03-08 Johnson Denise C Group President D - S-Sale Common Stock 18763 219.85
2021-03-08 Johnson Denise C Group President D - S-Sale Common Stock 8872 219.42
2021-03-08 Johnson Denise C Group President D - S-Sale Common Stock 23737 220.42
2021-03-08 Johnson Denise C Group President A - M-Exempt Employee Stock Options 18013 138.35
2021-03-08 Johnson Denise C Group President D - S-Sale Common Stock 5927 218.98
2021-03-08 Johnson Denise C Group President D - S-Sale Common Stock 10707 219.75
2021-03-08 Johnson Denise C Group President A - M-Exempt Employee Stock Option 18763 151.12
2021-03-08 Johnson Denise C Group President D - S-Sale Common Stock 3548 220.69
2021-03-05 Johnson Denise C Group President A - A-Award Phantom Stock Units 250 0
2021-03-05 Creed Joseph E Group President A - A-Award Phantom Stock Units 120 0
2021-03-05 De Lange Bob Group President A - M-Exempt Common Stock 31888 83
2021-03-05 De Lange Bob Group President D - S-Sale Common Stock 8900 213.58
2021-03-05 De Lange Bob Group President D - S-Sale Common Stock 15494 214.57
2021-03-05 De Lange Bob Group President D - S-Sale Common Stock 5794 215.45
2021-03-05 De Lange Bob Group President D - S-Sale Common Stock 1700 216.49
2021-03-05 De Lange Bob Group President A - M-Exempt Employee Stock Option 31888 83
2021-03-05 BONFIELD ANDREW R J Chief Financial Officer A - M-Exempt Common Stock 36026 138.35
2021-03-05 BONFIELD ANDREW R J Chief Financial Officer A - M-Exempt Common Stock 23096 127.6
2021-03-05 BONFIELD ANDREW R J Chief Financial Officer A - M-Exempt Employee Stock Options 23096 127.6
2021-03-05 BONFIELD ANDREW R J Chief Financial Officer A - M-Exempt Common Stock 23077 141.32
2021-03-05 BONFIELD ANDREW R J Chief Financial Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock 17826 216.14
2021-03-05 BONFIELD ANDREW R J Chief Financial Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock 28803 216.14
2021-03-05 BONFIELD ANDREW R J Chief Financial Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock 18627 216.14
2021-03-05 BONFIELD ANDREW R J Chief Financial Officer A - M-Exempt Employee Stock Options 36026 138.35
2021-03-05 BONFIELD ANDREW R J Chief Financial Officer A - M-Exempt Employee Stock Options 23077 141.32
2021-03-01 Johnson Gerald - 0 0
2021-03-01 WILKINS RAYFORD JR director A - A-Award Common Stock 683 0
2021-03-01 WILKINS RAYFORD JR director A - A-Award Common Stock 683 0
2021-03-01 WHITE MILES D director A - A-Award Common Stock 683 0
2021-03-02 WHITE MILES D director D - F-InKind Common Stock 507 0
2021-03-01 SCHWAB SUSAN C director A - A-Award Common Stock 683 0
2021-03-01 RUST EDWARD B JR director A - A-Award Common Stock 683 0
2021-03-01 REED DEBRA L director A - A-Award Common Stock 683 0
2021-03-01 OSBORN WILLIAM A director A - A-Award Common Stock 683 0
2021-03-01 GALLARDO JUAN director A - A-Award Common Stock 683 0
2021-03-02 GALLARDO JUAN director D - F-InKind Common Stock 363 0
2021-03-01 DICKINSON DANIEL M director A - A-Award Common Stock 683 0
2021-03-01 CALHOUN DAVID L director A - A-Award Common Stock 683 0
2021-03-01 Ayotte Kelly director A - A-Award Common Stock 683 0
2021-03-01 Umpleby III Donald J Chairman & CEO A - A-Award Employee Stock Options 155411 219.76
2021-03-01 Long Suzette M CLO/General Counsel A - A-Award Employee Stock Options 35522 219.76
2021-03-01 Johnson Denise C Group President A - A-Award Employee Stock Options 45291 219.76
2021-03-01 Johnson Cheryl H Chief Human Resources Officer A - A-Award Employee Stock Options 31082 219.76
2021-03-01 Marvel Gary Michael Chief Accounting Officer A - A-Award Employee Stock Options 3197 219.76
2021-03-01 De Lange Bob Group President A - A-Award Employee Stock Options 44403 219.76
2021-03-01 Creed Joseph E Group President A - A-Award Employee Stock Options 44403 219.76
2021-03-01 Fassino Anthony D. Group President A - A-Award Employee Stock Options 44403 219.76
2021-03-01 BONFIELD ANDREW R J Chief Financial Officer A - A-Award Employee Stock Options 46179 0
2021-02-09 Umpleby III Donald J Chairman & CEO A - A-Award Common Stock 46337 0
2021-02-09 Umpleby III Donald J Chairman & CEO D - F-InKind Common Stock 19766 196.78
2020-12-30 Umpleby III Donald J Chairman & CEO D - G-Gift Common Stock 59000 0
2021-02-09 Long Suzette M CLO/General Counsel A - A-Award Common Stock 11762 0
2021-02-09 Long Suzette M CLO/General Counsel D - F-InKind Common Stock 4471 196.78
2021-02-09 Johnson Denise C Group President A - A-Award Common Stock 14258 0
2021-02-09 Johnson Denise C Group President D - F-InKind Common Stock 5472 196.78
2021-02-09 Johnson Cheryl H Chief Human Resources Officer A - A-Award Common Stock 9267 0
2021-02-09 Johnson Cheryl H Chief Human Resources Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock 3366 196.78
2021-02-09 Marvel Gary Michael Chief Accounting Officer A - A-Award Common Stock 802 0
2021-02-09 Marvel Gary Michael Chief Accounting Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock 235 196.78
2021-02-09 De Lange Bob Group President A - A-Award Common Stock 15327 0
2021-02-09 De Lange Bob Group President D - F-InKind Common Stock 6047 196.78
2021-02-09 Creed Joseph E Group President A - A-Award Common Stock 4633 0
2021-02-09 Creed Joseph E Group President D - F-InKind Common Stock 1150 196.78
2021-02-09 Fassino Anthony D. Group President A - A-Award Common Stock 3565 0
2021-02-09 Fassino Anthony D. Group President D - F-InKind Common Stock 1080 196.78
2021-02-09 BONFIELD ANDREW R J Chief Financial Officer A - A-Award Common Stock 5659 0
2021-02-09 BONFIELD ANDREW R J Chief Financial Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock 1762 196.78
2021-02-02 Marvel Gary Michael Chief Accounting Officer D - M-Exempt Employee Stock Options 4018 74.77
2021-02-02 Marvel Gary Michael Chief Accounting Officer A - M-Exempt Common Stock 4018 74.77
2021-02-02 Marvel Gary Michael Chief Accounting Officer D - S-Sale Common Stock 4018 190.76
2020-12-16 Ainsworth William P Group Pres. thru 12/31/2020 D - G-Gift Common Stock 500 0
2021-01-21 Ainsworth William P Group Pres. thru 12/31/2020 D - G-Gift Common Stock 500 0
2020-08-10 OSBORN WILLIAM A director D - G-Gift Common Stock 1471 0
2021-01-01 Creed Joseph E Group President I - Common Stock 0 0
2021-01-01 Creed Joseph E Group President D - Common Stock 0 0
2021-01-01 Creed Joseph E Group President D - Phantom Stock Units 4967 0
2021-01-01 Creed Joseph E Group President D - Employee Stock Options 18294 151.12
2021-01-01 Creed Joseph E Group President D - Employee Stock Options 15011 138.35
2021-01-01 Creed Joseph E Group President D - Employee Stock Options 23095 127.6
2021-01-01 Fassino Anthony D. Group President D - Common Stock 0 0
2021-01-01 Fassino Anthony D. Group President I - Common Stock 0 0
2021-01-01 Fassino Anthony D. Group President D - Employee Stock Options 2693 74.77
2021-01-01 Fassino Anthony D. Group President D - Employee Stock Options 5588 95.66
2021-01-01 Fassino Anthony D. Group President D - Employee Stock Options 14073 151.12
2021-01-01 Fassino Anthony D. Group President D - Employee Stock Options 15761 138.35
2021-01-01 Fassino Anthony D. Group President D - Employee Stock Options 22133 127.6
2020-12-31 WHITE MILES D director A - A-Award Phantom Stock Units 242 0
2020-12-31 SCHWAB SUSAN C director A - A-Award Phantom Stock Units 208 0
2020-12-31 GALLARDO JUAN director A - A-Award Phantom Stock Units 208 0
2020-12-31 CALHOUN DAVID L director A - A-Award Phantom Stock Units 305 0
2020-12-23 Johnson Denise C Group President A - A-Award Phantom Stock Units 46 0
2020-12-23 De Lange Bob Group President A - A-Award Phantom Stock Units 43 0
2020-12-04 Marvel Gary Michael Chief Accounting Officer A - M-Exempt Common Stock 2318 83
2020-12-04 Marvel Gary Michael Chief Accounting Officer D - S-Sale Common Stock 2318 179.5
2020-12-04 Marvel Gary Michael Chief Accounting Officer D - M-Exempt Employee Stock Options 2318 83
2020-12-02 Marvel Gary Michael Chief Accounting Officer A - M-Exempt Common Stock 4634 83
2020-12-02 Marvel Gary Michael Chief Accounting Officer D - M-Exempt Employee Stock Options 4634 83
2020-12-02 Marvel Gary Michael Chief Accounting Officer D - S-Sale Common Stock 4634 173.26
2020-11-25 Johnson Denise C Group President A - A-Award Phantom Stock Units 47 0
2020-11-25 De Lange Bob Group President A - A-Award Phantom Stock Units 44 0
2020-11-24 Umpleby III Donald J Chairman & CEO A - M-Exempt Common Stock 214370 95.66
2020-11-24 Umpleby III Donald J Chairman & CEO D - F-InKind Common Stock 159572 176.8
2020-11-24 Umpleby III Donald J Chairman & CEO D - M-Exempt Employee Stock Options 214370 95.66
2020-11-09 Johnson Denise C Group President A - M-Exempt Common Stock 18013 138.35
2020-11-09 Johnson Denise C Group President A - M-Exempt Common Stock 37527 151.12
2020-11-09 Johnson Denise C Group President D - M-Exempt Employee Stock Options 18013 138.35
2020-11-09 Johnson Denise C Group President D - F-InKind Common Stock 46646 175
2020-11-09 Johnson Denise C Group President D - M-Exempt Employee Stock Option 37527 151.12
2020-11-09 Johnson Denise C Group President D - S-Sale Common Stock 8894 175
2020-11-09 De Lange Bob Group President A - M-Exempt Common Stock 3295 96.31
2020-11-09 De Lange Bob Group President D - F-InKind Common Stock 2476 173.9
2020-11-09 De Lange Bob Group President D - M-Exempt Employee Stock Option 3295 96.31
2020-11-05 De Lange Bob Group President A - M-Exempt Common Stock 2500 96.31
2020-11-05 De Lange Bob Group President D - S-Sale Common Stock 2500 164.76
2020-11-05 De Lange Bob Group President D - M-Exempt Employee Stock Option 2500 96.31
2020-11-03 Umpleby III Donald J Chairman & CEO A - M-Exempt Common Stock 172621 83
2020-11-03 Umpleby III Donald J Chairman & CEO A - M-Exempt Common Stock 114049 74.77
2020-11-03 Umpleby III Donald J Chairman & CEO D - F-InKind Common Stock 78992 166.84
2020-11-03 Umpleby III Donald J Chairman & CEO A - M-Exempt Common Stock 85606 96.31
2020-11-03 Umpleby III Donald J Chairman & CEO D - F-InKind Common Stock 124329 166.75
2020-11-03 Umpleby III Donald J Chairman & CEO D - F-InKind Common Stock 65528 166.36
2020-11-03 Umpleby III Donald J Chairman & CEO D - M-Exempt Employee Stock Options 172621 83
2020-11-03 Umpleby III Donald J Chairman & CEO D - M-Exempt Employee Stock Options 85606 96.31
2020-11-03 Umpleby III Donald J Chairman & CEO D - M-Exempt Employee Stock Option 114049 74.77
2020-11-02 Younessi Ramin Group President A - M-Exempt Common Stock 13135 151.12
2020-11-02 Younessi Ramin Group President D - S-Sale Common Stock 13135 162.49
2020-11-02 Younessi Ramin Group President D - M-Exempt Employee Stock Options 13135 151.12
2020-10-30 Younessi Ramin Group President D - S-Sale Common Stock 16938 154.09
2020-10-30 Younessi Ramin Group President D - S-Sale Common Stock 3554 154.6
2020-10-30 Long Suzette M General Counsel/Corporate Sec. D - S-Sale Common Stock 3687 155
2020-08-11 Ainsworth William P Group President D - G-Gift Common Stock 5588 0
2020-10-30 Ainsworth William P Group President D - S-Sale Common Stock 12000 154.78
2020-10-29 Younessi Ramin Group President A - M-Exempt Common Stock 18013 138.35
2020-10-29 Younessi Ramin Group President D - S-Sale Common Stock 18013 151
2020-10-29 Younessi Ramin Group President D - M-Exempt Employee Stock Options 18013 138.35
2020-10-29 Marvel Gary Michael Chief Accounting Officer A - M-Exempt Common Stock 4318 96.31
2020-10-29 Marvel Gary Michael Chief Accounting Officer A - M-Exempt Common Stock 2180 89.75
2020-10-29 Marvel Gary Michael Chief Accounting Officer D - S-Sale Common Stock 4318 154.39
2020-10-29 Marvel Gary Michael Chief Accounting Officer D - M-Exempt Employee Stock Options 2180 89.75
2020-10-29 Marvel Gary Michael Chief Accounting Officer D - M-Exempt Employee Stock Options 4318 96.31
2020-10-26 Johnson Denise C Group President A - A-Award Phantom Stock Units 50 0
2020-10-26 De Lange Bob Group President A - A-Award Phantom Stock Units 47 0
2020-10-12 Long Suzette M General Counsel/Corporate Sec. A - M-Exempt Common Stock 30960 151.12
2020-10-12 Long Suzette M General Counsel/Corporate Sec. D - M-Exempt Employee Stock Options 30960 151.12
2020-10-12 Long Suzette M General Counsel/Corporate Sec. D - F-InKind Common Stock 29728 162.74
2020-09-30 WHITE MILES D director A - A-Award Phantom Stock Units 293 0
2020-09-30 SCHWAB SUSAN C director A - A-Award Phantom Stock Units 251 149.34
2020-09-30 GALLARDO JUAN director A - A-Award Phantom Stock Units 251 0
2020-09-30 CALHOUN DAVID L director A - A-Award Phantom Stock Units 368 0
2020-09-25 Johnson Denise C Group President A - A-Award Phantom Stock Units 56 0
2020-09-25 De Lange Bob Group President A - A-Award Phantom Stock Units 53 0
2020-09-09 Long Suzette M General Counsel/Corporate Sec. D - M-Exempt Employee Stock Options 16012 138.35
2020-09-09 Long Suzette M General Counsel/Corporate Sec. A - M-Exempt Common Stock 16012 138.35
2020-09-09 Long Suzette M General Counsel/Corporate Sec. D - F-InKind Common Stock 15070 154.67
2020-09-08 De Lange Bob Group President A - M-Exempt Common Stock 3994 89.75
2020-09-08 De Lange Bob Group President D - F-InKind Common Stock 2419 148.18
2020-09-08 De Lange Bob Group President D - S-Sale Common Stock 1575 147
2020-09-08 De Lange Bob Group President D - M-Exempt Employee Stock Option 3994 89.75
2020-09-08 Johnson Denise C Group President A - M-Exempt Common Stock 34496 95.66
2020-09-08 Johnson Denise C Group President D - F-InKind Common Stock 22269 148.18
2020-09-08 Johnson Denise C Group President D - S-Sale Common Stock 19549 146.74
2020-09-08 Johnson Denise C Group President D - M-Exempt Employee Stock Options 34496 95.66
2020-09-07 BONFIELD ANDREW R J Chief Financial Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock 5836 148.24
Transcripts
Operator:
Welcome to the First Quarter 2024 Caterpillar Earnings Conference Call. Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Ryan Fiedler. Thank you. Please go ahead.
Ryan Fiedler :
Thanks, Audra. Good morning, everyone. Welcome to Caterpillar's first quarter of 2024 earnings call. I'm Ryan Fiedler, Vice President of Investor Relations. Joining me today are Jim Umpleby, Chairman and CEO; Andrew Bonfield, Chief Financial Officer; Kyle Epley, Senior Vice President of the Global Finance Services Division; and Rob Rengel, Senior Director of IR. During our call, we'll be discussing the first quarter earnings release we issued earlier today. You can find our slides, the news release, and a webcast recap at investors.caterpillar.com under Events and Presentations. The content of this call is protected by U.S. and international copyright law. Any rebroadcast, retransmission, reproduction, or distribution of all or part of this content without Caterpillar's prior written permission is prohibited. Moving to slide two. During our call today, we'll make forward-looking statements which are subject to risks and uncertainties. We'll also make assumptions that could cause our actual results to be different than the information we're sharing with you on this call. Please refer to the recent SEC filings and the forward-looking statements reminder in the news release for details on factors that, individually or in aggregate, could cause our actual results to vary materially from our forecast. A detailed discussion of the many factors that we believe may have a material effect on our business on an ongoing basis is contained in our SEC filings. On today's call, we'll also refer to non-GAAP numbers. For a reconciliation of any non-GAAP numbers to the appropriate U.S. GAAP numbers, please see the appendix of the earnings call slides. Now I'll turn the call over to our Chairman and CEO, Jim Umpleby.
Jim Umpleby :
Thanks, Ryan. Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us. I'd like to start by thanking our global team for delivering another strong quarter, including higher adjusted operating profit margin, record adjusted profit per share, and strong ME&T free cash flow. Our strong balance sheet and ME&T free cash flow allowed us to deploy a record $5.1 billion of cash for share repurchases and dividends in the first quarter. Our results reflect a continuation of healthy demand for our products and services across most of our end markets. We remain focused on executing our strategy and continue to invest for long-term profitable growth. I'll begin with my perspectives about our performance in the quarter. I'll then provide some insights about our end markets, followed by an update on our sustainability journey. It was another strong quarter. Sales and revenues were about flat in the quarter versus last year, broadly in line with our expectations. Services revenues increased in the quarter. Our adjusted operating profit increased by 5% to $3.5 billion. Adjusted operating profit margin was slightly better than we expected and improved to 22.2% up a 110 basis points versus last year. We achieved a record adjusted profit per share of $5.60 up 14%. We also generated strong ME&T free cash flow in the quarter of $1.3 billion. In addition, our backlog increased to $27.9 billion up $400 million versus the fourth quarter of 2023. We continue to expect 2024 sales and revenues to be broadly similar to the record 2023 level. We have revised our full year 2024 segment expectations to reflect a slightly stronger top line in Energy & Transportation offset by softening in the European market for Construction Industries. We anticipate services to be higher in 2024 as we strive to achieve our 2026 target of $28 billion. For the year, we continue to expect adjusted operating profit margin and ME&T free cash flow to be in the top half of our target ranges. Turning to slide four. In the first quarter of 2024 sales and revenues remained about flat at $15.8 billion. Compared to our expectations, sales volume was slightly lower while price realization, including geographic mix, was better than we anticipated. Compared to the first quarter of 2023, overall sales to users decreased by 5%. This was slightly lower than we expected, mainly due to weakness in Europe for Construction Industries. Energy & Transportation continued to show strength, where sales to users increased 9%. For machines, which includes Construction Industries and Resource Industries, sales to users declined by 9%. Focusing on Construction Industries, sales to users were down 5%. In North America, our largest geographic region for Construction Industries, sales to users increased as expected, and demand remained healthy for both non-residential and residential construction. Construction projects, as well as government related infrastructure, continue to benefit non-residential demand. Although residential sales to users in North America were down slightly, demand for new housing remained strong. Sales to users declined in EAME primarily due to weakness in Europe related to residential construction and economic conditions. Latin America and Asia Pacific sales to users also saw some declines. In Resource Industries, sales to users declined 17% in the first quarter compared to a very strong first quarter in 2023. Mining, as well as heavy construction and quarry and aggregates were lower, mainly due to softness in off-highway and articulated trucks that we mentioned during our last earnings call. In Energy & Transportation, sales to users increased by 9%. Oil and gas sales to users benefited from strong sales of turbines and turbine-related services. We also saw increased sales of reciprocating engines in the gas compression and well servicing oil and gas applications. Power generation sales to users grew as market conditions remained favorable, including strong data center growth. Transportation sales to users increased while industrial declined as we expected from strong levels last year. In total, dealer inventory increased by $1.4 billion versus the fourth quarter. For machines, dealer inventory increased by $1.1 billion, which was slightly higher than our expectations, largely due to sales to users being modestly lower than anticipated. The increase in machine dealer inventory is consistent with normal seasonal patterns of which Construction Industries products accounted for the majority of the increase. The total level of machine dealer inventory is comfortably within the typical range. As I mentioned, backlog increased to $27.9 billion, up $400 million versus the fourth quarter of 2023, led by Energy & Transportation. Backlog remains elevated as a percentage of revenues compared to historical levels. Adjusted operating profit margin increased to 22.2% in the first quarter, a 110 basis point increase over last year, which was slightly better than we anticipated. This was primarily due to better than expected manufacturing costs, mainly related to freight. Moving to slide five. We generated strong ME&T free cash flow of $1.3 billion in the first quarter. We deployed $5.1 billion of cash for share repurchases and dividends in the first quarter, including the initiation of a $3.5 billion accelerated share repurchase program which may last up to nine months. We remain proud of our Dividend Aristocrat status and continue to expect to return substantially all ME&T free cash flow to shareholders over time through dividends and share repurchases. Now on slide six, I'll describe our expectations moving forward. We expect a continuation of healthy demand across most of our end markets for our products and services. We continue to anticipate 2024 sales and revenues to be broadly similar to the record 2023 level. As I mentioned, we expect services to continue to grow in 2024. We currently do not anticipate a significant change in dealer inventory in machines in 2024, compared to a $700 million increase in 2023. This is expected to be a headwind to sales in 2024. As a reminder, dealers are independent businesses and manage their own inventories. The vast majority of dealer inventories in Energy & Transportation are backed by firm customer orders. The timing of these products being recognized as sales to users is impacted by dealer packaging and commissioning, which is why it is difficult to predict dealer inventory in E&T. This is why we have become more explicit about the differentiation between machine dealer inventory and total dealer inventory. As I mentioned, we anticipate that our 2024 results will be within the top half of our target ranges for both adjusted operating profit margin and ME&T free cash flow. Our strong results continue to reflect the diversity of our end markets, as well as the disciplined execution of our strategy for profitable growth. Now, I'll discuss our outlook for key end markets starting with Construction Industries. In North America, after a very strong 2023, we continue to expect demand in the region will remain healthy in 2024 for both non-residential and residential construction. We anticipate non-residential construction to remain at similar levels to slightly higher demand levels compared to last year due to construction projects, as well as government related infrastructure. Residential construction demand is expected to be flat to slightly down versus last year, which remains strong in comparison to historical levels. In Asia Pacific, outside of China, we are seeing some softening in economic conditions. We anticipate demand in China will remain at a relatively low level for the above 10-ton excavator industry. In EAME, we anticipate that weak economic conditions in Europe will continue, somewhat offset by strong construction activity in the Middle East. Construction activity in Latin America remains mixed, but overall, we are expecting modest growth. In addition, we expect the ongoing benefit of our services initiatives will positively impact Construction Industries in 2024. Next, I'll discuss Resource Industries. After strong performance in 2023 in mining, as well as heavy construction and quarry and aggregates, we anticipate lower machine volume versus last year, primarily due to off-highway and articulated trucks. In addition, we anticipate a small decrease in resource industry dealer inventories during 2024 versus a slight increase last year. While we continue to see a high level of quoting activity overall, we anticipate lower order rates as customers display capital discipline. We expect to see higher services revenues, including robust rebuild activity. Customer product utilization remains high, the number of parked trucks remains low, and the age of the fleet remains elevated, and our autonomous solutions continue to see strong customer acceptance. We continue to believe the energy transition will support increased commodity demand over time, expanding our total addressable market, and providing further opportunities for long-term profitable growth. Moving to Energy & Transportation. In oil and gas, we expect reciprocating engines and services to be about flat after strong 2023 performance. We expect reciprocating gas compression demand to be higher in 2024 than it was in 2023. While servicing demand in North America is expected to soften, Cat reciprocating engine demand for power generation is expected to remain strong, largely due to continued data center growth relating to Cloud Computing and Generative AI. Last quarter, I mentioned we are making a multi-year capital investment in our large reciprocating engine division, including increasing capacity for both new engines and aftermarket parts. This investment will approximately double output for large engines and aftermarket parts as compared to 2023. We leverage these large engines across a variety of applications, including data centers, oil and gas, large mining trucks, and distributed power generation. For Solar Turbines, our backlog and quoting activity both remain strong for oil and gas and power generation. As we said previously, industrial demand is expected to soften relative to a strong 2023. In transportation, we anticipate high-speed marine to increase as customers continue to upgrade aging fleets. Moving to slide seven, I'll provide an update on our sustainability journey. We are contributing to a reduced carbon future and continue to invest in new products technologies and services, to help our customers achieve their climate related objectives. In January we announced the signing of an electrification strategic agreement with CRH to advance the deployment of Caterpillar‘s Zero-Exhaust Emissions Solutions. CRH is the number one aggregate producer in North America and the first company in that industry to sign such an agreement with Caterpillar. The agreement is focused on accelerating the deployment of Caterpillar’s 70-ton to 100-ton class battery electric off-highway trucks and charging solutions at a CRH site in North America. Through the agreement CRH will participate in Caterpillar’s early learner program for battery electric off-highway trucks. In February Caterpillar oil and gas announced the launch of the Cat Hybrid Energy Storage Solution to help drillers and operators cut fuel consumption, lower total cost of ownership and reduce emissions in oil and gas operations. The custom designed energy storage system stores excess power from the job site and then discharges it as needed. In a hybrid system that combines the Cat Hybrid Energy Storage Solution in a natural gas fuel generator set, the transient response is even quicker than a conventional diesel only rigs. Depending upon site configuration the Hybrid Energy Storage Solution has proven to deliver up to 30% fuel cost savings with natural gas, 85% fuel cost savings with fuel gas, and up to an 80% reduction in nitrogen oxides. Carbon dioxide equivalent reductions up to 11% and 7% are possible with natural gas and fuel gas respectively. In addition, we look forward to issuing our 19th Annual Sustainability Report in May. The material in our report reinforce our ongoing commitment to sustainability. With that I'll turn it over to Andrew.
Andrew Bonfield:
Thank you, Jim. Good morning everyone. I'll begin by commenting on the first quarter results, including the performance of our segments. Then I'll discuss the balance sheet and ME&T free cash flow before concluding with a few comments on the full year and our assumptions for the second quarter. Beginning on slide eight. Our operating performance was strong with both adjusted operating profit margin and adjusted profit per share, being better than we had expected. Sales and revenues of $15.8 billion were about flat compared to the prior year, broadly in line with our expectations. Adjusted operating profit increased by 5% to $3.5 billion and the adjusted operating profit margin was 22.2% an increase of 110 basis points versus the prior year which was slightly better than we had expected. Profit per share was $5.75 in the first quarter, compared to $3.74 in the first quarter of last year Adjusted profit per share increased by 14% to $5.60 in the first quarter, compared to $4.91 last year. Adjusted profit per share excluded net restructuring income of $0.15 per share, this compares to restructuring expense of $1.17 which was excluded in the first quarter of 2023. Other income of $156 million for the quarter, was higher than the first quarter of 2023 by $124 million, this primary related to favorable ME&T balance sheet translation. The provision for income taxes in the first quarter excluding discrete items, reflected a global annual effective tax rate of 22.5% compared with 23% in the first quarter of 2023. Included in profit per share and adjusted profit per share was a benefit of $38 million or $0.08 for a discrete tax item related to stock based compensation. A comparable benefit of $32 million or $0.06 per share was included in the first quarter of 2023. The year-over-year impact of a reduction in the number of shares primarily due to share repurchases over the past year, had a favorable impact on adjusted profit per share of approximately $0.24. This included a favorable impact from the initial shares we received, from the $3.5 billion accelerated share repurchase agreement that Jim mentioned earlier. Before, I move on you will have seen some additional detail on earnings release segment commentaries. We continue to highlight the primary drivers of year-over-year changes in sales and profit by segment, as we have done previously, but in addition we are now also quantifying those significant variances. You will also find some additional information on historical dealer inventory, including at the machines level in the appendix of today's slides Moving to slide nine. I'll discuss our top line results in the first quarter. Sales remained about flat compared to the prior year, as lower volume was largely offset by favorable price realization. The decline in volume was primarily due to lower sales to users. As Jim mentioned, the 5% decrease in sales to users was slightly more than our expectations, mainly driven by weakness in Europe for Construction Industries. Changes in total dealer inventories did not have a significant impact on sales, as the increase of $1.4 billion in the quarter was similar to the increase last year. As Jim mentioned, the $1.1 billion increase for machines was slightly higher than we had anticipated, primarily as sales to users were modestly lower than we had expected. As compared to our expectations for the quarter, sales were broadly in line. Sales volume was slightly lower than we had anticipated, while price realization, including geographic mix, was better than we had expected. By segment, sales in Construction Industries were lower than we had anticipated, while sales in Energy & Transportation exceeded our expectations. Resource Industry sales were about in line. Moving to operating profit on Slide 10. The first quarter operating profit increased by 29% to $3.5 billion. As a reminder, the prior year included a $586 million charge that arose from the divestiture of the company's long-haul business. Adjusted operating profit increased by 5% to $3.5 billion. Price realization benefited the quarter, while lower sales volume acted as a partial offset. The adjusted operating profit margin of 22.2% improved by 110 basis points versus the prior year. Margins were slightly better than we had anticipated, mainly due to favorable manufacturing costs, as freight costs were lower than we had expected. Price, including a benefit from geographic mix, was also better than we had anticipated. Now on slide 11, I'll review segment performance, starting with Construction Industries. Sales decreased by 5% in the first quarter to $6.4 billion, primarily due to lower sales volume, partially offset by favorable price realization. Sales were slightly lower than we had anticipated. Sales in North America increased by 6% in the quarter. In the EAME region, sales fell by 25%, and in particular, Europe was lower than we had anticipated, impacted by weakness in residential construction and economic conditions. In Latin America, sales decreased by 1%. In Asia Pacific, sales decreased by 14%. First quarter profit for Construction Industries was $1.8 billion, a slight decrease versus the prior year. The decrease was mainly due to lower sales volume, partially offset by favorable price realization and manufacturing costs. The segments margin of 27.5% was an increase of 100 basis points versus the last year. This was better than we had expected due to favorable manufacturing costs, which largely reflected lower freight costs. Turning to slide 12, Resource Industries sales decreased by 7% in the first quarter to $3.2 billion, which was about in line with our expectations. The decrease was primarily due to lower sales volume, partially offset by favorable price realization. The decrease in sales volume was mainly driven by lower sales of equipment to end users, which Jim explained. First quarter profit for Resource Industries decreased by 4% versus the prior year to $730 million. The decrease was mainly due to lower sales volume, partially offset by favorable price realization. The segments margin of 22.9% was an increase of 60 basis points versus last year. This is better than we had expected on stronger price and favorable manufacturing costs, driven mainly by lower freight costs. Now on slide 13, Energy & Transportation sales increased by 7% in the first quarter to $6.7 billion. The increase was primarily due to higher sales volume and favorable price. Sales were stronger than we had expected, mostly due to increased deliveries of large engines. By application, power generation sales increased by 26%, oil and gas sales improved by 19%, transportation sales were higher by 9%, while industrial sales decreased by 21%. First quarter profit for Energy & Transportation increased by 23% versus the prior year to $1.3 billion. The increase was primarily due to favorable price realization. The segments margin of 19.5% was an increase of 260 basis points versus the prior year. The margin was significantly stronger than we had anticipated due to lower than expected manufacturing costs, higher volume, and better price. Moving to slide 14, Financial Products revenues increased by 10% to $991 million, primarily due to higher average financing rates across all regions and higher average net earning assets in North America. Segment profit was strong, increasing by 26% to $293 million. The increase was mainly due to an insurance settlement and a favorable impact from equity securities. Our portfolio continues to perform well as past dues remain near historic lows at 1.78%, a 22 basis point improvement compared to the first quarter of 2023. This is the lowest first quarter past dues since 2006. In addition, the allowance rate was our lowest on record at 1.01%. Business activity remains strong as new business volume increased versus the prior year, primarily driven by North America. We continue to see strong demand for used equipment and inventories remain close to historically low levels, with just slight increases over recent quarters. Moving on to slide 15. As Jim mentioned, our ME&T free cash flow remains strong. We generated $1.3 billion in the quarter after taking into account the $1.7 billion payments made for 2023 short-term incentive compensation and CapEx spend of about $500 million. Spend for both short-term incentive compensation and CapEx was higher than it was in the first quarter of 2023. For the full year, we expect to be in the top half of our ME&T free cash flow target range, which correlates to between $7.5 billion and $10 billion. We still expect to spend between $2 billion and $2.5 billion in CapEx, and we will continue to prioritize investments around AACE, which is autonomy, alternative fuels, connectivity, and digital and electrification. Moving to capital deployment. We continue to expect to return substantially all our ME&T free cash flow to shareholders over time through dividends and share repurchases. Of the record $5.1 billion of cash deployed in the first quarter, share repurchase spend was $4.5 billion, including the $3.5 billion accelerated share repurchase, or ASR. The $3.5 billion were deployed in the first quarter, and the ASR agreement may last for up to nine months. The ASR provides us with favorable pricing as compared to shorter-term ASRs, which we have carried out previously, which makes it more attractive. Price is finally determined relative to the volume-weighted average price, or VWAP, over the duration of the agreement. Approximately 70% of the shares were delivered to the company up front, but the balance calculated when the agreement is terminated based on the actual average VWAP. As a reminder, our objective is to be in the market on a more consistent basis with share repurchases, so this is a great mechanism for us to use. As I mentioned, our balance sheet remains strong. We have ample liquidity with an enterprise cash balance of $5 billion, and we hold an additional $2.2 billion in slightly longer-dated liquid marketable securities to improve yields on that cash. Moving to slide 16, I will share our high-level assumptions for the full year. As compared to a quarter ago, our assumptions for the full year generally remain unchanged. On the top line, we anticipate broadly similar sales and revenues as compared to the record 2023 level, consistent with what we mentioned last quarter. Although our top-level sales expectations remain the same, segment inputs have shifted a bit. We now see a slightly stronger top line in Energy & Transportation after a strong first quarter, while our expectations have been tampered slightly in Construction Industries due to economic conditions in the European market. We continue to expect slightly favorable price realization versus the prior year. Our expectations on dealer inventory also remain unchanged. We currently do not expect a significant change in dealer inventory of machines in 2024 compared to a $700 million increase in 2023. This is expected to be a headwind to sales. We also continue to anticipate another year of services growth across each of our primary segments as we strive to achieve our 2026 target of $28 billion in services revenues. At the segment level, we now expect Construction Industries sales to users to be slightly lower compared to 2023 due to the softer economic conditions in Europe. We expect demand in North America to remain at healthy levels, as Jim discussed. We also anticipate changes in dealer inventory to act as a headwind to Construction Industries sales in 2024. We expect sales service revenues to be positive versus the prior year. In Resource Industries, we continue to expect lower sales impacted by lower machine volume, primarily in off-highway and articulated trucks, where the comparison versus the prior year is challenging. We anticipate changes in dealer inventory to act as a headwind to sales in this segment as well. In Energy & Transportation, our 2024 sales expectations have increased slightly after the strong first quarter. We continue to see strong demand for reciprocating engines in power generation, as well as healthy order and quoting activity for Solar Turbines for both oil and gas and power generation. This supports our improved optimism for higher sales in Energy & Transportation in 2024. Also, as typical seasonality would suggest, we expect to see some sales ramp in Energy & Transportation as we move through the full year. On full year adjusted operating profit margin, we continue to expect to be in the top half of the margin target range at our expected sales levels. As I mentioned last quarter, we expect a relatively small pricing benefit to be weighted towards the first half of the year, given carryover from increases in the second half of last year. We now expect flattish manufacturing costs this year versus the prior year, as we anticipate more favorable freight costs, although the unfavorable impact from cost absorption could act as a partial offset. As I mentioned a quarter ago, given better availability this year, we anticipate shipping a more normal mix of products this year. We anticipate this dynamic may act as a slight headwind to margins. SG&A and R&D expenses are expected to ramp through the remainder of the year as we continue to invest in strategic initiatives aimed at future long-term profitable growth. This will be offset by the benefit of lower short-term incentive compensation. In addition, from a segment perspective, keep in mind that margins in Construction Industries tend to trend lower as the year progresses. Finally, we continue to anticipate restructuring costs of $300 million to $450 million this year, and our expectation for annual effective tax rate, excluding discrete items, is now 22.5%. Now on slide 17, I'll discuss our expectations for the second quarter, starting with the top line. We expect lower sales in the second quarter compared to the prior year, as we anticipate a headwind due to changes in dealer inventory of machines which will impact volumes. We expect dealer inventory of machines to decline this quarter in line with normal seasonal trends, versus the atypical $200 million increase that occurred in the second quarter of 2023. However, we anticipate a continuation of healthy demand across most of our end markets for our products and services, and prices expected to remain positive year-over-year. Following the typical seasonable pattern, we do expect higher sales in the second quarter as compared to the first. By segment compared to the prior year, we anticipate lower sales in Construction Industries as we expect changes in dealer inventory to act as a headwind. Favorable price should that provide a partial offset. We expect lower sales in resource industries versus the prior year, driven by lower volume, partially offset by favorable price. In Energy & Transportation, we anticipate similar sales versus the prior year. On enterprise margins in the second quarter, we expect the adjusted operating profit margin to be similar to the prior year, and lower versus the first quarter, following the typical seasonable pattern. As compared to the prior year, we could expect that price will remain favorable from the continued carryover benefit from increases taken in the second half of 2023. We expect flattish manufacturing costs compared to the prior year, as favorable freight is expected to offset the impacts of unfavorable cost absorption. We also anticipate an increase in SG&A and R&D expenses related to strategic investments, although this will be offset by lower short-term incentive compensation. By segment, in both Construction Industries and Resource Industries, we expect similar margins in the second quarter compared to the prior year, as we expect favorable price to be offset by lower volume. In Energy & Transportation, we expect a higher margin versus the prior year on better price and favorable mix. Unfavorable manufacturing costs and SG&A and R&D spend related to strategic investments are expected to act as a partial offset in this segment. Note that we expect a headwind to enterprise margins and corporate costs in the quarter, where we anticipate unfavorable year-over-year impacts from timing differences. So turning to slide 18, let me summarize. The strong operating performance continued in this quarter, with the adjusted operating profit margin at 22.2%, and record adjusted profit per share of $5.60. We deployed a record $5.1 billion of cash per share repurchases and dividends in the quarter. Our assumptions for the full year remain similar, and we expect to be in the top half of our target ranges for both adjusted operating profit margin and ME&T free cash flow. We continue to execute our strategy for the long-term profitable growth. And with that, we'll take your questions.
Operator:
Thank you. [Operator Instructions] We'll take our first question from Tami Zakaria at JP Morgan.
Tami Zakaria:
Hi, good morning. Thank you so much.
Jim Umpleby:
Good morning, Tami.
Tami Zakaria:
Hi. How are you? So, nice margin performance in the quarter, and hence my question is around margins you guided for the second quarter. So if sales are expected to be lower year-over-year, I'm assuming volumes are down too. So what essentially would help margins remain relatively flattish? Is it price? I know you mentioned some factors, but just wanted more color. Is it price cost? Is it some cost-savings initiatives or is it something else that's going on? So, any color there would be helpful.
Andrew Bonfield:
Yeah. So, at the moment there are two factors. One, which is obviously price, will still be positive in the second quarter, and that will help overall margins and will help to offset the impact of lower volume. Also, we do expect to see some flattening of manufacturing costs versus the prior year, mostly because of freight. We would expect the benefit of lower freight costs to offset the impact of cost absorption, which may occur in the quarter, so those are two factors. And then we will expect the increase in investments we're making behind our strategic investments and SG&A and R&D, to be offset by lower short-term incentive compensation expense. So those are all the moving parts, but overall as we said, we expect margins to be about flat year-over-year in the second quarter versus second quarter of 2023.
Operator:
We'll move next to Michael Feniger at Bank of America.
Michael Feniger:
Great. Thanks for taking my question. I know your guiding Q2 sales to be lower year-over-year, and the full year to be broadly similar. So maybe you could give us some context of what's driving that second half, that slight pick-up. Is it deliveries in a certain market like E&T? And is your expectations that end-user dealer retail sales which pulled back in Q1, do you think that's the low point for the year and that starts to improve through the year to match that full year guide? Any context there would be helpful?
Andrew Bonfield:
Yeah. So overall as we said, really what's happening in Q2 is principally the impact on lower volume will be around the impact of dealer inventory movements, particularly on the machine side. Last year, as I said, we actually had a very atypical build in the second quarter. As you know, the historic trend is always during selling season to see, particularly on the CI side, dealer inventory to decrease. So that was really the main driver. Overall, as we've indicated for the year, we still expect healthy volume in North America in CI. We do have some impact now on Europe. That means we now expect CI STUs to be slightly lower year-over-year. We are seeing that offset though by expected sales growth in energy and transportation, where we're seeing more positivity than we've seen. As far as STUs are concerned, obviously the first quarter was impacted by those, principally the European conditions which we mentioned a moment ago. Overall, we're still very comfortable, but the overall guide we've made for the year, which is sales and revenues, will be broadly flat with 2023.
Operator:
We'll move to our next question from Jamie Cook at Truist Securities.
Jamie Cook:
Hey. Good morning, everyone. Nice quarter. Jim, I guess my question, under your leadership, I think the earnings power of Caterpillar has far exceeded anyone's expectation, and a lot of that was driven by the O&E business model and your focus on profitable growth. At the same time, you've been allocating capital to higher return products right, that's part of the strategy. At the same time, you are talking about doubling, I think you said your large engine capacity to meet demand for data centers and this is, now your lower – at this point it's your lower margin segment. So I guess understanding right now with ME&T, we have investment in AACE and capacity. But like over time, why shouldn't E&T margins structurally be higher than the other two segments, in particular given where construction margins are right now? I'm just wondering if the market under appreciates where E&T margins can go, given the capacity additions you are talking about. Thank you.
Jim Umpleby:
Jamie, it's a good question. One of the things to keep in mind is that many of the investments we're making, a lot of electrification in other areas, the costs are absorbed in energy and transportation, so that's one of the things that has an impact on the margin of the total segment. And as you quite rightly mentioned, we're very focused on investing in areas that represent the best opportunities for future profitable growth. And as we look at the margin opportunities around large engines, that's certainly an area that very much deserves our investment, in both capital and expense and management attention as well. So certainly, as you know, our primary measure of profitable growth is absolute OPACC dollars, and we're trying to increase that. Having said that, we provided our margin targets and we said we'd be in the upper half of the range. But again, we're investing in areas that represent very good opportunities for profitable growth, and that includes large engines. So I'm not saying that margins won't come up in E&T. Again, the one thing to keep in mind here is that a lot of costs go into that segment that really benefits some of the other segments.
Operator:
We'll move next to David Raso at Evercore ISI.
David Raso:
Hi, thank you for the time. I think some of the concern around the second half of the year, sales having to be positive to offset the first half being down, it would be helpful if you can give us a little sense of the implied orders for the quarter actually did turn slightly positive year-over-year. Can you give us any color that you can around sort of what moved in the backlog sequentially, E&T, CI, RI, just so we can get a sense of, was the order improvement year-over-year solely E&T? Was there any order improvement year-over-year in RI and CI, just to maybe build more confidence in the second half of the year sales growth? And of course, any color around some of the E&T orders. You get the impression some are very long-dated orders. Just trying to get a sense of that order flow in E&T, how soon can those orders show up in revenues? Thank you.
Jim Umpleby:
David, let me answer the last part of your question first. So, in terms of E&T, about 80% of our total CAT backlog is expected to be sold within 12 months, and we don't put orders into the – we don't put things into the backlog unless we have a firm customer order. So we work really closely with our customers, as an example with customers that are looking for large engines for data centers, and we have a sense going out multiple years of what it is they want, but we don't put any of that into the backlog until they give us a firm order. So, it doesn't – our backlog doesn't go out as far as you might think. So I'll start with that and then I'll turn it over to Andrew for the first part of your question.
Andrew Bonfield:
Yeah. And Dave, your fact on the implied order rate is correct. Yes, the implied orders are up year-over-year. Obviously, that is one of the factors which gives us confidence as we look out and also relative strength of the backlog gives us a lot of confidence within the business lines where they are. As regards to backlog, obviously most of the increase has been in E&T as you would expect, given that those are the businesses now which is showing more strength relatively versus CI and RI, and that just is reflected in that order positioning as we go out.
Operator:
We'll go next to Rob Wertheimer at Melius Research.
Rob Wertheimer:
Hi. My question is around CAT's capabilities in Power Gen and data centers and so forth and how that may or may not be changing with the rise of AI and kind of massive increases in scale of data centers. I guess specifically, I understand that your investment in large research is probably partially targeted at that. My impression is that historically, solar turbines were more combined heat and power in Power Gen. I don't know whether they've served the data center market. I'm curious as to whether you now have an opportunity as those data centers are bigger to sell turbines into it and just your general sense of how the world is changing. Thank you.
Jim Umpleby:
Thank you, Rob. We are very excited about what we view as a secular growth opportunity around data centers, both in terms of increasing base power loads, but also the specific opportunities to serve those data centers. So as you probably know, traditionally we have provided reciprocating generative sets as backup for those data centers. But what you say is very correct. That business is changing, and I believe that we are uniquely positioned, because we have a combination of both gas turbines and research that burn a whole variety of fuels. And so we have had some projects now where we've shipped gas turbines, to provide prime power for data centers, because in some places when data centers want to go into a geographic area, the utility can't handle the load of those, and when in fact there's natural gas available, we've seen situations where a customer will take gas turbines, install those, burn natural gas to produce their own base power for the data centers. In addition to that then, there's also the reciprocating engine gen sets as backup if something were to happen. But typically again, we are seeing a change, you are right. The market's changing, and we're very excited about that opportunity.
Operator:
We'll move to our next question from Chad Dillard at Bernstein.
Chad Dillard:
Hi. Good morning, guys.
Jim Umpleby:
Good morning, Chad.
Chad Dillard:
So, good morning. So, my question for you is on E&T. Just trying to understand, where the lead times or what the lead times are, specifically in Power Gen. And then, just like how long it will take to get your capacity expansion online, and just how to think about, just like when you can actually ramp the revenues there.
Jim Umpleby:
Yeah. So, we're starting to make – again, we started to make those capacity investments, and those – that capacity is expected to ramp up over the next four years, so it's gradually phased in. So that'll happen over a four-year period. In terms of E&T, obviously I mentioned that Solar Turbines has strong quotation and order activity as well, and they have the ability certainly to increase their production. So again, the capacity in large engines, the investment that we specifically mentioned, is expected to gradually phase up over the next four years.
Andrew Bonfield:
Yeah, and just a quick point to make. Obviously Power Gen is the fastest-growing business today within energy and transportation, just to note. And actually, as a percentage of E&T sales, it has gone up from 25% in the first quarter of last year to 29% this year. So it is an area of exciting opportunity, even before we build the capacity, and obviously an area where there's potential for further growth as well.
Jim Umpleby:
And maybe just one add-on. You know one of the beauties about our business model – we're making this capacity investment in large engines, but those large engines just don't have the ability to serve the power generation market. I mean they serve a whole variety of markets, so those same large engines are used for oil and gas. They are used for large mining trucks. They are used for data center backup. But we also believe there's an opportunity over time for distributed generation as well. So again, we're making this capital investment not just based on one opportunity in the marketplace, but upon multiple opportunities in different industries. And again, we think that diversity of our end-market opportunities is one that really makes this an excellent investment.
Operator:
And we'll move to our next question from Jerry Revich at Goldman Sachs.
Jerry Revich:
Yes, hi. Good morning, everyone.
Jim Umpleby:
Good morning, Jerry.
Jerry Revich:
Jim, Andrew, I'm wondering if you could just talk about in construction industries, in prior cycles the industry has passed through lower input costs in terms of lower prices to customers when input costs have declined. In the first quarter we saw a nice price cost spread on the positive side for you folks here. I'm wondering to what extent do you think for you folks in the industry, could we see that price cost gap continue to widen since the industry has taken a more disciplined approach in cutting production sooner relative to the soft spot that you mentioned in your prepared remarks?
Andrew Bonfield:
Yes. So Jerry, as we've indicated, obviously price has been favorable, but we expect the benefit of favorable price to moderate as the year progresses and that obviously holds true for CI as it does for the other segments. And that really will obviously mean that the benefits on margin expansion will become much, much tougher for CI, as particularly as you get into the second half of the year where you won't see that spread. We do see manufacturing costs being broadly flattish, and part of the reason for that is because of the favorability of freight, which is more than offsetting the impact of cost absorption. So overall, we've obviously taken the approach that where we have got the benefit of price, we will obviously be trying to hold that as best as we can obviously. And we've been, as you rightly pointed out, we’ve been pretty disciplined about making sure that we have cut production, like for example in the excavators that you saw in the fourth quarter, where we do see softness or weakness in the market.
Operator:
We'll take our next question from Stephen Volkmann at Jefferies.
Stephen Volkmann:
Great. Good morning, guys. I'm wondering if we could tack back to the dealer inventory commentary. I want to make sure I understand that right, because that seems to be a bit of a focus for the market this morning. I think if I'm not mistaken, that the dealers did build a little more than you expected in the first quarter. I'm curious why that might be. And if you can provide some sense of how much of that total 1.4 kind of has a customer name on it, and I guess the bottom line is, why don't you worry that that's kind of an inventory build that sort of makes things less bullish going forward? Thank you.
Jim Umpleby:
The reason the dealer inventory increased a bit more than we expected is primarily due to the softness in European construction. It was – that really is the reason for that, that build in dealer inventory. The dealer inventory is well within our typical range, comfortably within what we consider a typical range. So we are not concerned about it.
Andrew Bonfield:
And just the other bit of granularity which we tried to give and just is about spilling out between machine and dealer inventory and dealer inventory as a whole. Principally because obviously in energy and transportation, it is that most of that inventory as we said previously, and also within resource industries, over 70% of that is backed by firm customer orders. It's not really inventory sitting on a dealer's lot waiting. Often it's a city getting ready for commissioning, and that is part of the reason for that. Overall, as Jim reiterated and just to reiterate, we are comfortably within the range on machine dealer inventory. We do expect for the year that inventory level to be about flat year-over-year. That's our expectation and then planning assumption at the moment.
Operator:
We'll move to our next question from Mig Dobre at Baird.
Mig Dobre:
Yes, thank you. Good morning.
Jim Umpleby:
Hi, Meg.
Mig Dobre:
Hi. Maybe we can talk a little bit about resource industries. I guess one of the things that stood out to me was the pretty significant decline in dealer deliveries in this segment, and I'm curious in mining specifically, what's going on there? Are you actually starting to see maybe a pullback in demand from your customers? Is the investment cycle maturing there or is this just sort of a temporary aberration?
Jim Umpleby:
Yeah, so we had expected some softness certainly in RI this year and we talked about that, I believe in our first quarter call, so a number of things. First of all, on the positive side, the number of parked trucks, and there's some indices that we look at to really judge the health of the mining industry and so some positives. The number of parked trucks is relatively low. The utilization of our customers’ products, of our products by our customers is high, and the age of the fleet is relatively elevated, so those are positive things. Having said that, our customers are displaying capital discipline. Not surprising, just given what's happened in the economic conditions around the world, but those indices really do bode well for us. In addition to that, we've seen great strength, great acceptance of our autonomous solutions. So those have been accepted well also. We expect a robust rebuild activity this year, because our products are being used so extensively by our customers. So again, really, I think it's just really mostly a function of a bit of a dealer inventory change and also our customers displaying capital discipline.
Andrew Bonfield:
Yeah, and just to add to that a little bit, just to remind you that the first quarter of 2023 was very strong and actually the highest level of STUs in resource industries for over 10 years at the time. So that was a significant factor. Secondly, as we talked about, there are two product lines, where because of supply chain there was a backlog which was used up principally in 2023, off-highway trucks and also articulated trucks. Just as an FYI, large mining trucks are still growing, which I know is one of the factors that many of you look at. So there was no issue there at all with regards to that.
A - Jim Umpleby:
And again, you think about just the market changing, we're still very bullish on the fact longer term that we believe the energy transition will support increased commodity demand over time. That'll expand our total addressable market and provide us further opportunities for long-term profitable growth. Just think about everything that has to happen for EVs. There's no way around that being accomplished without our customers producing more commodities, and of course, they use our products to produce those additional commodities.
Operator:
We'll go next to Angel Castillo at Morgan Stanley.
Angel Castillo:
Hi, good morning and thanks for taking my question. Just wanted to clarify, going back to North America CI in the second quarter, you talked about seeing continued kind of healthy demand there. But just wanted to clarify, as we think about kind of dealer inventories coming down in the second quarter, and you also have a little bit of tougher comps there as you think about retail sales. When we kind of look at retail sales for the second quarter of this year, just to clarify, is that expected to be still positive or do you expect that to turn kind of modestly negative? And as you kind of talk about that and provide more color on that, could you also talk about what you are seeing in April, in terms of kind of quarter-to-date trends in retail sales?
Andrew Bonfield:
Yeah, as I think we've indicated overall, for the full year, we expect CI revenues to be, STUs to be slightly negative for the full year. The first quarter, in January we said we thought they would be about flat for the full year. So that does imply some acceleration through the year in order to get back to that sort of – to be just slightly negative. With regards to trends in April, look we're not going to talk about what's happening. I mean, as is always the case, quarter-on-quarter you see changes, which can relate to commissioning and all sorts of number of factors, but we're comfortable with that full year forecast for CI.
A - Jim Umpleby:
And North America is our strongest, largest geographic area for CI. And as we said earlier, we certainly expect demand in North America to remain healthy. We've got – we expect it to be flat to slightly higher in non-residential, flat to slightly down. So again, in that North American market, which is so important to us, business continues to be strong.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Kristen Owen at Oppenheimer.
Kristen Owen:
Great. Thank you for taking the question. I wanted to ask about capital allocation here, just given the ASR that you put in place. You've bought back more shares than historically you do in a year. I appreciate that that is in line with the ME&T free cash flow deployment, but your stock is also at all-time highs. So just wondering how we should think about intrinsic value at this stage and how to weigh that ASR versus, say, dividend increase.
Andrew Bonfield:
Yeah. So obviously as you know, we have both a dividend policy as well as a share buyback policy. As far as the dividend is concerned, we have one more year of our high single digits. That's a board decision which will probably be made around June time, and then after that we'll probably come back and look at what the future policy will be. Remember, the objective is to pay out no more than 60% to 65% of free cash flow in a low environment for the dividend. So that will be part of our – that comes into part of the policy and the way we look at that. With regards to intrinsic value, obviously as is always the case, yes, we do take into account intrinsic value, and that decision has been made as part of the longer term ASR, obviously. But remind you that the benefit of the ASR is really around the fact that you are in the market more consistently. We don't try and market time. We are really just trying to be in the market consistently to return that cash to shareholders. Overall, we believe that's the best approach, but we're very comfortable with putting that in place. Audra, we have time for one more question.
Operator:
Thank you. That question comes from Nicole DeBlase at Deutsche Bank.
Nicole DeBlase:
Yeah, thanks. Good morning, guys. I also wanted to focus on CI. So a lot of discussion obviously about Europe kind of being the problem child this quarter. I guess, are you guys seeing as you kind of progress through the quarter, some signs of stabilization or is there risk that Europe could still get worse? And then I guess also like, with dealer inventories being up and not being the driver, are you concerned about the level of dealer inventories in Europe CI specifically? Thank you.
Jim Umpleby:
Yeah, firstly, as I mentioned earlier, we believe that dealer inventory is comfortably within what we would consider the typical range. When we think about EAME, we talked about construction weakness in Europe, but also there's strength in the Middle East, a lot of construction activity in the Middle East. So again, that provides a bit of a buffer there to the total EAME region. And again, I keep coming back to North America as our largest, most important region for CI and the fact that non-residential construction is underpinned by those government infrastructure projects, which again is a very positive thing for us. So I think it's an important thing to keep in mind as you think about CI.
Jim Umpleby:
All right. Well again, thank you for joining us and we certainly appreciate all your questions. I'd like to just close by thanking our global team for their strong performance in the first quarter, including higher adjusted operating profit margin, record adjusted profit per share and strong EM&T free cash flow. Our strong results continue to reflect the diversity of our end markets, as well as the disciplined execution of our strategy for long term profitable growth. With that, I'll turn it back to Ryan.
Ryan Fiedler :
Thanks Jim, Andrew, and everyone who joined us today. A replay of our call will be available online later this morning. We'll also post a transcript on our Investor Relations website as soon as it's available. You'll also find our first quarter results video with our CFO and an SEC filing with our sales to users data. Click on investors.caterpillar.com and then click on financials to view those materials. If you have any questions, please reach out to Rob or me. Now let's turn the call back to Audra to conclude our call.
Operator:
Thank you. And that does conclude our call. Thank you for joining. You may all now disconnect.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the Fourth Quarter 2023 Caterpillar Earnings Conference Call. Please be advised that today's conference is recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Ryan Fiedler. Thank you, and please go ahead.
Ryan Fiedler:
Thanks, Abby. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Caterpillar's fourth quarter of 2023 earnings call. I'm Ryan Fiedler, Vice President of Investor Relations. Joining me today are Jim Umpleby, Chairman and CEO; Andrew Bonfield, Chief Financial Officer; Kyle Epley, Senior Vice President of the Global Finance Services Division; and Rob Rengel, Senior Director of IR. During our call, we'll be discussing the fourth quarter earnings release we issued earlier today. You can find our slides, the news release, and a webcast recap at investors.caterpillar.com under Events and Presentations. The content of this call is protected by US and international copyright law. Any rebroadcast, retransmission, reproduction, or distribution of all or part of this content without Caterpillar's prior written permission is prohibited. Moving to Slide 2. During our call today, we'll make forward-looking statements, which are subject to risks and uncertainties. We'll also make assumptions that could cause our actual results to be different than the information we're sharing with you on this call. Please refer to our recent SEC filings in the forward-looking statements reminder in the news release for details on factors that, individually or in aggregate, could cause our actual results to vary materially from our forecast. A detailed discussion of the many factors that we believe may have a material effect on our business on an ongoing basis is contained in our SEC filings. On today's call we'll also refer to non-GAAP numbers. For a reconciliation of any non-GAAP numbers to the appropriate US GAAP numbers, please see the appendix of our earnings call slides. Now, let's turn the call over to our Chairman and CEO, Jim Umpleby.
Jim Umpleby:
Thanks, Ryan. Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us. As we close out 2023, I'd like to start by recognizing our global team for delivering another strong quarter and the best year in our 98-year history. For the year, we delivered record sales and revenues, record adjusted profit margin, record adjusted profit per share, and record ME&T free cash flow. Our results continue to reflect healthy demand across most of our end markets for our products and services. We remain focused on executing our strategy and continue to invest for long-term profitable growth. I'll begin with my perspectives about our performance in the quarter and for the full year. I'll then provide some insights about our end markets, followed by an update on our strategy. I'll then provide some insights about our end markets, followed by an update on our strategy and sustainability journey. Moving to quarterly results, it was another strong quarter. While sales and revenues increased 3% in the fourth quarter versus a strong quarter last year, our adjust operating profit increased by 15%. Adjusted operating profit margin improved to 18.9%, up 190 basis points versus last year. We also generated $3.2 billion of ME&T free cash flow in the quarter. Sales, adjusted operating profit margin, adjusted profit per share and ME&T free cash flow in the fourth quarter were all better than we expected. For the full year, we generated a 13% increase in total sales and revenues to $67.1 billion. Services also increased by 5% to $23 billion, a record. We generated $13.7 billion of adjusted operating profit in 2023, up 51% from 2022. Adjusted operating profit margin for the full year was 20.5%, a 510 basis point increase over the prior year. This exceeded the top end of our target margin range for this level of sales by 80 basis points. Adjusted profit per share in 2023 was $21.21, a 53% increase over 2022. In addition, we also generated $10 billion of ME&T free cash flow, exceeding the high end of our target range by over $2 billion for the full year. This performance led to continued growth in absolute OPACC dollars, which is our internal measure of profitable growth. As a result of our strong execution and record financial performance, we are increasing our target range for adjusted operating profit margin and ME&T free cash flow. We are increasing the top end of our adjusted operating profit margin range by 100 basis points relative to the corresponding level of sales. Moving to ME&T free cash flow, we've generated more than $30 billion over the last five years, including a record $10 billion in 2023. Based on our demonstrated ability to generate strong free cash flow, we are raising our ME&T free cash flow target range to $5 billion to $10 billion, up from $4 billion to $8 billion. Andrew will provide additional details around these updated targets. Turning to Slide 4. In the fourth quarter of 2023, sales and revenues increased by 3% to $17.1 billion, driven by favorable price realization and partially offset by lower volume. Both price and volume were slightly better than we expected. Compared to the fourth quarter of 2022, overall sales to users increased 8%, slightly better than our expectations. Energy & Transportation sales to users increased 20%. For machines, which includes Construction Industries and Resource Industries, sales to users rose by 3%. Sales to users in Construction Industries were up 4%. North American sales to users increased as demand remained healthy for non-residential and residential construction. Non-residential continued to benefit from government related infrastructure and construction projects. Residential sales to users in North America also increased in the quarter. Sales to users in EAME and Latin America were down slightly relative to a strong comparative. In Asia Pacific, sales to users declined in the quarter. In Resource Industries, sales to users increased 1%. In mining, sales to users also increased and in heavy construction and quarry and aggregates, sales to users declined against a strong comparative in 2022. In Energy & Transportation, sales to users increased by 20%. Oil and gas sales to users benefited from strong sales of turbines and turbine related services. We also saw continued strength in sales of reciprocating engines into gas compression and well servicing oil and gas applications, including the Tier 4 dynamic gas blending engines used in well servicing fleets. Power generation sales to users increased -- excuse me, power generation sales to users continued to remain positive due to favorable market conditions, including strong data center growth. Transportation sales to users also increased, while industrial declined from historically strong levels in 2022. Dealer inventory decreased by $900 million versus the third quarter. Machines declined by $1.4 billion, slightly more than we expected. We saw the largest decline in Construction Industries as dealer inventory decreased across all regions. The largest decline was in excavators. We remain comfortable with the total level of machine dealer inventory, which is within the typical range. Adjusted operating profit margin increased to 18.9% in the fourth quarter, a 190 basis point increase over last year. Adjusted operating profit margin was slightly better than we had anticipated. Relative to our margin expectations, we saw higher price realization and higher sales volume, both marginally better than expected. Turning to Slide 5, I'll now provide full year highlights. In 2023, we generated sales and revenues of $67.1 billion, up 13% versus last year. This was due to favorable price and higher sales volume, driven primarily by higher sales of equipment to end users. As I mentioned, we generated $23 billion of services revenue in 2023, a 5% increase over 2022. We continue to see improvement of customer value agreements with new equipment, which remains an important part of our services growth initiatives. We saw strong e-commerce sales growth as we continued to enhance our digital tools to make it easier for customers to identify and purchase the right parts. We added more than 100,000 new customers to our online channel. We also exceeded the e-commerce goal we shared at our May 2022 Investor Day. By combining the data from more than 1.5 million connected assets with our engineering expertise, advanced analytics and AI, we are helping customers avoid unplanned downtime through intelligent leads, which we call prioritized service events, or PSEs. We continue to execute our various service initiatives as we strive to achieve our 2026 target of $28 billion. Our full-year adjusted operating profit margin was 20.5%, a 510 basis point increase over 2022. Moving to Slide 6. We generated strong ME&T free cash flow of $10 billion in 2023, a $3.7 billion, or 58% increase over our previous record. We returned a record $7.5 billion to shareholders through repurchase stock and dividends. We remain proud of our Dividend Aristocrat status and continue to expect to return substantially all ME&T free cash flow to shareholders over time through dividends and share repurchases. Now on Slide 7, I'll describe our expectations moving forward. Overall demand remains healthy across most of our end markets for our products and services. We ended 2023 with a backlog of $27.5 billion, which remains elevated as a percentage of revenues compared to historical levels. We currently anticipate 2024 sales and revenues to be broadly similar to the record 2023 level. We expect continued strength in end user demand, including services growth, and a slight benefit from carryover pricing, offset by a dealer inventory headwind, which was a $2.1 billion benefit in 2023. We currently do not anticipate a significant change in dealer inventory of machines in 2024 as compared to an increase in 2023. Now, I'll discuss our outlook for key end markets, starting with construction industries. In North America, after a very strong 2023, we expect the region to remain healthy in 2024. We expect non-residential construction to remain at similar demand levels due to government-related infrastructure investments. Residential construction is expected to remain healthy relative to historical levels. In Asia Pacific, excluding China, we are seeing some softening in economic conditions. We anticipate China will remain at a relatively low level for the above 10-ton excavator industry. In EAME, we anticipate the region will be slightly down due to economic uncertainty in Europe, somewhat offset by continuing strong construction demand in the Middle East. Construction activity in Latin America is expected to increase due to easing financial conditions. In addition, we also anticipate the ongoing benefit of our services initiatives will positively impact construction industries in 2024. Next, I'll discuss Resource Industries. After strong performance in 2023 in mining, heavy construction and quarry and aggregates, we anticipate lower machine volume versus last year, primarily due to off-highway and articulated trucks. In addition, we anticipate a small decrease in dealer inventory during 2024 versus a slight increase in dealer inventory last year. While we continue to see a high level of quoting activity overall, we anticipate lower order rates as customers display capital discipline. We expect to see higher services revenues, including robust rebuild activity. Customer product utilization remains high, the number of parked trucks remains low, the age of the fleet remains elevated, and our autonomous solutions continue to see strong customer acceptance. We continue to believe the energy transition will support increased commodity demand over time, expanding our total addressable market and providing further opportunities for long-term profitable growth. Moving to Energy & Transportation. In oil and gas, we expect reciprocating engines and services to increase slightly after a strong 2023. As we said during the last two quarters, well servicing in North America is showing some short-term moderation. Gas compression order backlog remains healthy. And overall, we continue to remain optimistic about future demand. Cat reciprocating engine demand for power generation is expected to remain strong due to continued data center growth. Solar Turbines has a strong backlog and continues to experience robust quoting activity. As we said in the last quarter, industrial demand is expected to soften in the near term from a strong 2023. In transportation, we anticipate high-speed marine to increase slightly as customers continue to upgrade aging fleets. Moving to Slide 8. Now I'll provide an update on our strategy and sustainability journey. Over the past year, we have discussed constraints for our large engines, given the robust demand in power generation for data centers and in oil and gas. We believe that our total addressable market is expanding due to the secular growth trend for data centers relating to cloud computing and Generative AI. We also expect the energy transition to create opportunities for distributed generation. As more renewables are added to the grid, our reciprocating engine and gas turbine generator sets can help provide grid stability. We are making a large multiyear capital investment in our large engine division, including increasing capacity for both new engines and aftermarket parts. This will help us satisfy growing customer demand and contribute to future absolute OPACC dollar growth, which we believe has the highest correlation to total shareholder return over time. We continued to advance our sustainability journey in 2023. I'll highlight some recent announcements demonstrating our commitment to a reduced carbon future. Caterpillar had a goal that 100% of new products will be more sustainable than the previous generation, including by lowering fuel consumption and thus, corresponding emissions. One recent example is our 420 XE Backhoe Loader with the Cat 3.6 engine. Through internal testing in a typical mix of applications, it consumed up to 10% less fuel and produced up to 10% less tail pipe emissions than the previous model. Earlier this year, we announced the success of our collaboration with Microsoft and Ballard Power Systems to demonstrate the viability of using large-format hydrogen fuel cells to supply reliable and sustainable backup power for data centers. The demonstration validated the hydrogen fuel cell power systems performance in more than 6,000 feet above sea level and in below freezing conditions. Caterpillar led the project, providing the overall system integration, power electronics and microgrid controls that form the central structure of the hydrogen power solution. These examples reinforce our ongoing sustainability leadership. With that, I'll turn it over to Andrew.
Andrew Bonfield:
Thanks, Jim, and good morning, everyone. I'll begin with commentary on the fourth quarter results, including the performance of our segments. Then I'll discuss the balance sheet and cash flow, followed by an update to our target ranges for adjusted operating profit margins and ME&T free cash flow. I'll conclude with our high-level assumptions for 2024 and our expectations for the first quarter. Beginning on Slide 9. Strong operating performance continued in the fourth quarter as sales and revenues, adjusted operating profit margin, adjusted profit per share and ME&T free cash flow were all better than we had expected. In summary, sales and revenues increased by 3% to $17.1 billion. Adjusted operating profit increased by 15% to $3.2 billion. The adjusted operating profit margin was 18.9%, an increase of 190 basis points versus the prior year. Profit per share was $5.28 in the fourth quarter compared to $2.79 in the fourth quarter of last year. Profit per share in the quarter included favorable mark-to-market gains of $0.14 for the remeasurement of pension and OPEB plans and certain favorable deferred tax valuation adjustments of $0.04. It also included restructuring costs of $92 million or $0.13. Adjusted profit per share increased by 35% to $5.23 in the fourth quarter compared to $3.86 last year. The provision for income taxes in the fourth quarter, excluding the amounts related to mark-to-market and discrete items, reflected a global annual effective tax rate of 21.4%. This was lower than we had expected a quarter ago due to favorable changes in the geographic mix of profits. The lower rate benefited performance in the quarter by about $0.24. Moving on to Slide 10. I'll discuss top line results in the fourth quarter. The 3% sales increase versus the prior year was primarily driven by price realization, partially offset by lower volume as impacts from dealer inventory changes more than offset the 8% increase in sales to users. Both price and volume was slightly better than we had anticipated. The dealer inventory change resulted in an unfavorable sales impact of $1.6 billion versus the prior year. Dealer inventory decreased in the fourth quarter by $900 million overall compared to an increase of approximately $700 million during the fourth quarter of 2022. The dealer inventory decrease in the fourth quarter was led by Construction Industries, where the reduction was at the high end of our expectations. The decrease in this segment was led by excavators and the impact of the Cat engine changeover in building construction products that we have mentioned in previous earnings calls. Dealers also reduced their inventories in resource industries. Overall, the decrease in dealer inventory of machines was $1.4 billion in the quarter. Conversely, dealer inventory in Energy & Transportation increased mostly due to extended commissioning time lines, resulting from strong shipments, which was supported by healthy demand. As a reminder, dealer inventory in both Energy & Transportation and Resource Industries is mainly a function of the commissioning pipeline, and over 70% of dealer inventory in these segments is backed by firm customer orders. Looking at sales by segment. Sales in Construction Industries and Energy Transportation was slightly higher than we had anticipated, while sales in Resource Industries were about in line with our expectations. Moving to operating profit on Slide 11. Adjusted operating profit increased by 15% to $3.2 billion. Price realization and favorable manufacturing costs benefited the quarter, while higher SG&A and R&D expenses and lower sales volumes acted as a partial offset. The increase in SG&A and R&D expenses was primarily driven by higher short-term incentive compensation expense and strategic investment spend. The adjusted operating profit margin of 18.9% improved by 190 basis points versus the prior year. Margins were slightly higher than we had anticipated on volumes and price being marginally better than we had expected. Now on Slide 12. Construction Industries sales decreased by 5% in the fourth quarter to $6.5 billion due to lower sales volume, partially offset by favorable price realization. Lower sales volume was primarily due to the changes in dealer inventories that I mentioned earlier and more than offset the favorable sales to users. The dealer inventory changes impacted all of the regions. By region, sales in North America increased by 4%. In Latin America, sales decreased by 25%. Sales in EAME increased -- decreased by 18%. This region accounted for the largest dealer inventory decline in the quarter. In Asia Pacific, sales decreased by 4%. Fourth quarter profit for Construction Industries was $1.5 billion, an increase by 3% versus the prior year. The increase was primarily due to favorable price, partially offset by the profit impact from lower sales volume. The segment's operating margin of 23.5% was an increase of 180 basis points versus last year. This was broadly in line with our expectations. Turning to Slide 13. Resource Industries sales decreased by 6% in the fourth quarter to $3.2 billion. The decrease was primarily due to lower sales volume, partially offset by favorable price realization. Lower volume was impacted by changes in dealer inventories as dealers decreased inventories during the fourth quarter of 2023 compared to an increase in the prior year's quarter. Volume was also impacted by slightly lower aftermarket market part sales volume, partly due to dealer buying patterns. Fourth quarter profit for Resource Industries decreased by 1% versus the prior year to $600 million. The segment's operating margin of 18.5% was an increase of 90 basis points versus last year and was in line with our expectations. Now on Slide 14. Energy & Transportation sales increased by 12% in the fourth quarter to $7.7 billion. The increase was primarily due to higher sales volume and favorable price realization. Sales volume benefited from higher shipments of large engines and solar turbines and turbine-related services in the quarter. By application, oil and gas sales increased by 23%, power generation sales were higher by 29%, industrial sales decreased by 5% and transportation sales increased by 11%. While industrial sales decreased, they remain at healthy levels. Fourth quarter profit for Energy & Transportation increased by 21% versus the prior year to $1.4 billion. The increase was primarily due to favorable price and higher sales volume, partially offset by higher SG&A and R&D expenses, currency impacts and unfavorable manufacturing costs. The increase in SG&A and R&D expenses reflected ramping investments related to strategic growth initiatives and higher short-term incentive compensation expense. As a reminder, most of our strategic investments relating to electrification and alternative fuels are in Energy & Transportation, which therefore impacts this segment's margin. The operating margin of 18.6% was an increase of 130 basis points versus the prior year. Margin exceeded our expectations on higher volume, including favorable mix and price. Moving to Slide 15. Financial Products revenues increased by 15% to $981 million, primarily due to higher average financing rates across all regions and higher average earning assets in North America. Segment profit increased by 24% to $234 million. The increase was mainly due to lower provision for credit losses at Cat Financial, higher average earning assets and a higher net yield on average earning assets. Our portfolio continues to perform well with past dues near historic levels of 1.79%. We saw a 10 basis point improvement compared to the fourth quarter of 2022 and a 17 basis point improvement compared to the third quarter. This is the lowest fourth quarter past dues percentage since 2006. The year-end allowance rate was our lowest fourth quarter rate on record of 1.18% and was the second lowest quarterly rate ever. In addition, provision expense in 2023 was at the lowest level we've seen in over 20 years. Business activity remains strong, as retail new business volume increased versus the prior year and the third quarter. The increase versus the prior year reflected higher end user sales and rental conversions in the US. In addition, we continue to see strong demand for used equipment. Though used inventories have ticked up slightly, they remain close to historically low levels. Despite some moderation in used pricing on improved availability, it is still comfortably above historic norms. Moving on to Slide 16. The record $10 billion in ME&T free cash flow for the year included $3.2 billion in the fourth quarter, an increase of $200 million versus the prior year. On CapEx, we continue to make disciplined investments that are right for our business, governed by our focus on growing absolute OPACC dollars. We spent about $1.7 billion in 2023. Looking to 2024, we expect CapEx in the range of $2 billion to $2.5 billion. This is higher than our recent run rate and includes the investment in large engine capacity, which Jim referenced a moment ago. We also plan to invest more around AACE, which is autonomy, alternative fuels, connectivity and, digital and electrification. In addition, we are investing to make our supply chain more resilient. Moving to capital deployment. We returned $3.4 billion to shareholders in the fourth quarter, including $2.8 billion in share repurchases. Our net share count has decreased by approximately 14% since 2019, when we shared our intention to return substantially all ME&T free cash flow to shareholders over time and on a consistent basis. Our dividend remains a priority as we increased our quarterly payout by 8% in 2023. You will recall from our Investor Day in 2022, we shared that we expected to increase our dividend by at least high single digits for the next three years. The increase in 2023 reflected the second of those three years. Our balance sheet remains strong. We have ample liquidity with an enterprise cash balance of $7 billion, and we hold an additional $3.8 billion in slightly longer-dated liquid marketable securities to improve yields on that cash. Now on Slide 17, I'll discuss our revised adjusted operating profit margin targets. We exceeded our progressive target range in 2023, and we are confident that our strong execution and operating performance supports the potential for higher top end adjusted operating profit margins than were reflected in the prior range. Therefore, we have increased the top end of the range by 100 basis points relative to the corresponding level of sales. Achieving the top end of the range will remain challenging, as we are committed to increase investments in our strategic initiatives supporting long-term profitable growth. The bottom end of the target range remains unchanged. To explain, while higher gross margin support increasing the top end of the range, they actually pressure our margins in periods of decreasing volume. For that reason, we believe that the bottom end of the range remains challenging, but achievable. We will now target adjusted operating profit margins of 10% to 14% at $42 billion of sales and revenues, increasing to 18% to 22% at $72 billion of sales and revenues. Now on Slide 18. When I joined Caterpillar just over five years ago, I was impressed with the potential of our business to deliver higher, more consistent ME&T free cash flow as a result of the operating and execution model and our focus on generating absolute OPACC dollars. This is how we define winning at Caterpillar. We believe increasing absolute OPACC dollars will lead to higher shareholder returns over time. Since the beginning of 2019, we have generated $30 billion in ME&T free cash flow, including a record $10 billion in 2023. We are confident in our ability to consistently generate positive ME&T free cash flow over time. Therefore, we are introducing an updated target range for ME&T free cash flow, which is between $5 billion and $10 billion. Our strong operating performance as well as confidence in our future execution supports the higher range. The updated target range still maintains our flexibility to invest in our strategic initiatives, which is a priority. We also continue to expect to return substantially all of our ME&T free cash flow to shareholders over time through dividends and share repurchases. Moving to Slide 19. I will share our high-level assumptions for the full year. As Jim mentioned, in 2024, we anticipate sales and revenues will be broadly similar to 2023. We expect slightly favorable price realization and continued healthy underlying demand across the business as a whole. We anticipate another year of services growth as we continue to target $28 billion by 2026. We do not expect a significant change in dealer inventory for machines by the end of this year. And for Energy & Transportation, it is difficult to predict with certainty what will happen to dealer inventory as we have discussed previously. In total, dealer inventory increased by $2.1 billion in 2023. By segment, in Construction Industries, sales of equipment to end users should remain roughly similar compared to the strong year we saw in 2023. However, we do not expect a dealer inventory build as we saw last year. We also anticipate our services initiatives will benefit the segment in 2024. In Resource Industries, we anticipate lower sales versus 2023, impacted by lower machine volume primarily in off-highway and articulated trucks. We had strong sales of these products in 2023 as we converted our elevated backlog into sales, making for a challenging comparison. We also anticipate an unfavorable year-over-year change in dealer inventories. However, we expect services revenues will increase in this segment. In Energy & Transportation, we expect slightly higher sales in 2024. Power generation, oil and gas, and transportation sales should be positive, while industrial sales are expected to be lower compared to our historically strong levels in 2023. On full year adjusted operating profit margin, we currently expect to be in the top half of the updated margin target range at our expected sales levels. I'll discuss some of the puts and takes. In 2024, we expect a small pricing benefit weighted towards the first half of the year given carryover from increases taken in the second half of 2023. For the full year, we expect price to modestly exceed manufacturing costs. Versus last year, price in absolute dollar terms should moderate as we let the more favorable pricing trends from 2023. Short-term incentive compensation expense was about $1.7 billion in 2023, while we anticipate $1.2 billion in 2024. We expect the benefit of that low expense will be offset by increases in SG&A and R&D expenses as we continue to invest in strategic initiatives and of future long-term profitable growth. Investments are focused in services, new product introductions and AACE. We also anticipate there may be some negative margin impact due to mix this year. I'll explain. During 2023, when availability was somewhat challenged, we biased our production and shipments to products with the highest OPACC potential. Given that availability has improved, we anticipate a more normalized mix of products in 2024. We may also see an impact on margins from the mix of different segments as we anticipate in sales in 2024 will be slightly more weighted towards Energy & Transportation than they were in 2023. Moving on, we expect to be within the top half of our updated ME&T free cash flow target range of $5 billion to $10 billion. As you consider our cash position, keep in mind, the $1.7 billion cash outflow in the first quarter related to the payout of last year's incentive compensation expense. We also anticipate restructuring charges of $300 million to $450 million this year. Finally, we expect global effective tax rate in the range of 22.5% to 23.5%, an increase versus the 21.4% in 2023. Now on Slide 20. Our expectations for the first quarter, starting with the top line. We expect first quarter sales and revenues to be broadly similar to the prior year. We anticipate price to be favorable, although significantly less in absolute dollar terms than had occurred through 2023. We expect demand to remain healthy. However, we anticipate a slightly lower dealer inventory build for machines in the first quarter compared to a $1.1 billion build in the first quarter of 2023. This will act as a headwind to sales. At the segment level, in Construction Industries, we anticipate flattish to slightly higher first quarter sales versus the prior year, primarily due to favorable price. We anticipate lower sales in Resource Industries compared to the prior year, driven by lower volume, partially offset by favorable price. In Energy & Transportation, we expect flattish to slightly higher sales versus the prior year, with updated favorable volume benefiting the upside scenario. On margins, we expect the enterprise adjusted operating profit margin in the first quarter to be broadly similar to the first -- prior year. Price should more than offset manufacturing costs as price actions from 2023 rolled into 2024. We expect price will be lower in absolute dollar terms versus the prior year. We anticipate manufacturing costs to increase compared to last year, principally impacted by cost absorption as we do not expect an inventory build like we saw in the first quarter of 2023. We also anticipate an increase in SG&A and R&D expenses related to the strategic investment spend. By segment, in Construction Industries, we anticipate a similar margin as compared to the prior year. We expect price to offset strategic investment spend and slightly higher manufacturing costs, including cost absorption. In Resource Industries, we expect a lower margin compared to the prior year, impacted by lower volume, partially offset by favorable price. In Energy & Transportation, we anticipate a similar margin versus prior year, a slightly stronger price should be offset by higher manufacturing costs. Turning to Slide 21. Let me summarize. Adjusted profit per share of $21.21 exceeded our previous full year record by 53%. We exceeded the top end of our targeted ranges for adjusted operating profit margin and ME&T free cash flow. We have increased the top end of our adjusted profit margin range, and we have raised our ME&T free cash flow target range. We expect to be in the top half of our updated margin and ME&T free cash flow target ranges in 2024, and we anticipate another year of services growth as we continue to execute our strategy for long-term profitable growth. And with that, we'll take your questions.
Operator:
Thank you. [Operator Instructions] And your first question comes from the line of Rob Wertheimer with Melius Research. Your line is open.
Rob Wertheimer:
Thank you. My question [Technical Difficulty] on inventory, kind of at all levels. You had a healthy destock in the quarter. I think your volumes were down around 4%, retail sales up 8%, and so that's nice. I wanted to see how inventory was versus what you expect out of the business at the dealer level at your finished goods level and also at your WIP [raws] (ph), where your own inventories have been elevated. So just -- how do you feel the business is performing at those levels? And then what's the path from here, especially on your own inventory? Thank you.
Jim Umpleby:
Good morning, Rob. Starting with our inventory, as we discussed in previous calls, just because of the supply chain constraints we've had, our internal manufacturing operations are not running as efficiently as I would like. We believe we still have an opportunity to do a better job there. Certainly, the supply chain constraints have started to ease, and that's made things a bit easier, but we still are dealing with some areas of constraint. So again, I think we have opportunities there, and we'll continue to work on that and try to get more lean. In terms of dealer inventory, again, we talked about it in our prepared remarks. Of course, dealers are independent businesses, make their own decisions. And their decisions on inventory are a combination of what they see in future demand but also availability. And our ability to reduce lead times allows them and our customers to place orders later. So again, we've talked about the fact that we don't expect a significant change in dealer inventories in 2024, but again, they're independent businesses and will make their own decisions.
Andrew Bonfield:
Yeah. Just a couple of things to add. I mean if you look at our days inventory outstanding, Rob, it's running at about 15% to 20% higher than historic levels. So that gives us an opportunity over the next several years to work that down in a way that manages also from a supply base perspective, not to create undue problems for them in their outlook. So we'll continue to look at that. And then just a mention on dealer inventory, particularly within construction dealer inventory is about the middle of the range, the target range we talk about of three to four months. So it's pretty much bang on there. So dealers are holding what probably we would continue to expect them to hold.
Operator:
And your next question comes from Michael Feniger with Bank of America. Your line is open.
Michael Feniger:
Yeah. Thank you for taking my question. You guys just reported a record sales and earnings. There's a view that many of your businesses are operating at peak levels. I'm curious when you look at your overall portfolio, especially maybe on a unit basis versus prior cycles, are there areas and regions where you feel like your business is still not operating at peak levels or record levels? Do you feel it as we go in the back half of this year, if rates come down, financial conditions ease, is there a torque in areas of your business where you feel like the backlog could start to maybe bottom and pick up as those conditions start to get a little bit better through the year? Thank you.
Jim Umpleby:
All right. Well, thanks for your question. Maybe just talk about some of the areas that we're most excited about as we move forward. And without putting a time dimension on this, but one of the things that we've talked about is that we believe that the energy transition will increase demand for commodities over time, thereby expanding our total addressable market. So as we look forward and you think about the increased adoption of things like EVs and the amount of minerals that will need to be produced by our mining customers to satisfy that demand, we believe that, again, it creates an opportunity for us moving forward over the next few years. And also, we're very excited about the opportunities around large engines. There's a secular growth trend going on in data centers related to -- as I mentioned, related to cloud computing and Generative AI. And so we're very excited about that. We're making an investment to increase our large engine capacity. So again, we believe that is an area of increase in our total addressable market as well. And just kind of think about around the world, one of the things we talked about in previous calls is the fact that our market in China is relatively weak. Over time, that market has been 5% to 10% of enterprise sales, and we had strong years in China in 2020 and 2021. We saw a decline in 2022, a further decline in 2023, and we expect that market to still be relatively weak again this year. So we're not in a situation where we're hitting on all cylinders in all markets around the world, both from a product and geographic perspective. Europe is, again, we do believe there's opportunities there over time depending on what happens in the economic cycle. So again, it's not a situation where if you look around the world, we're hitting at all the cylinders going as good as they can. So we believe we have opportunities here.
Operator:
And your next question comes from Tami Zakaria, JPMorgan. Your line is open.
Tami Zakaria:
Hi, good morning. Thank you so much for taking my question. My question is more a medium to long term in nature. So services growth was 5% in 2023. If you want to hit the $28 billion target, it seems like growth would need to accelerate from that to, call it, a high single-digit percent number over the next three years annually. So can you help us understand what could drive this acceleration in growth? And do you need industry growth to remain positive during these next three years to support that aspiration or can services grow independent of the end market or industry growth?
Jim Umpleby:
Well, thank you for your question. We've been pleased by the progress we've made. You recall, we started with that 2016 baseline of $14 billion, and we have increased it to $23 billion. Our teams continue to strive to achieve that $28 billion number. And one of the things we said when we laid out the target is we didn't expect it to be in a straight line. We thought it would be relatively back-end loaded. But we continue to invest in our digital capabilities, e-commerce. I talked earlier about CVAs and the other things that we're doing. We're working very closely with our dealers as well. So we do believe that there's an opportunity regardless of industry growth to increase services. And again, we continue to strive to achieve that number. One of the things that we also would notice is STUs were positive as well. And one of the things that impacts, of course, our services sales is dealer buying patterns [around parts] (ph), but we're encouraged by the fact that STUs were positive.
Operator:
And your next question comes from David Raso with Evercore ISI. Your line is open.
David Raso:
Hi, thank you. First, just a clarification in your answer, if you could. The operating margin guidance, I know you have the sales framework, but just if you can just help us, do you expect your operating margins to be flat, up or down for the year? But my real question is the backlog. I'm just trying to understand the size of the backlog, the relationship it usually has with next year's sales would imply a lot stronger growth than you're forecasting. And I'm just trying to understand that maybe the orders in the quarter were okay. The dealer inventory drag, right, the growth last year, but not growth this year, that's a drag year-over-year. That one in account come closer really to accounting for where the sales would normally be guided for next year with this level of backlog. So I'm just trying to put my head around, with that size backlog, the flat sales, is that a concern that -- again, the orders were good for the quarter, that you're seeing slower orders coming? Just trying to correlate that backlog to only flat sales. Thank you.
Andrew Bonfield:
Yeah. David, let me start on the backlog and then talk about margin guidance afterwards. On backlog, obviously, backlog conversion varies. The one thing you should always think about is, again, backlog is not a single type of activity. It's not just related to, for example, machines. Some of it is related to large engines and some of it is related to solar. Not all of those elements of the backlog actually are in 2024. Some of those will convert in 2025 and beyond. So actually, that's one of the factors, which is a little bit different than maybe versus history. And so why you wouldn't actually necessarily convert that. But that's part of it. Again, just when we talk about guidance and what we're guiding around flattish sales and also around top half margin ranges, we are talking about ranges of outcomes. Obviously, it's the beginning of the year. We'll -- we've indicated where there will be some puts and takes. But obviously, performance this year has been exceptional. Our aim is to continue to drive to that level of performance. That's what we're focused on. And I think that's what the organization is focused on as well.
Operator:
And your next question comes from Nicole DeBlase with Deutsche Bank. Your line is open.
Nicole DeBlase:
Yeah. Thanks, good morning, guys.
Jim Umpleby:
Good morning, Nicole.
Nicole DeBlase:
Just a few on parts. So if you could elaborate on the parts decline that you saw in resource. Any color on the magnitude of parts growth that you might expect for '24? And then how would you characterize parts inventory levels in the dealer network right now? Thank you.
Jim Umpleby:
Yeah. So as we talked about, I mentioned part of the decline in part sales in Resource Industries was relating to dealer buying patents. We don't include -- obviously, we're talking about dealer inventory, that's machines and engines. It's not actually parts. And what we did see as availability improved as we went through 2023, we did see dealers reduce their inventory a little bit. It's probably more at normalized levels now. Obviously, they'll continue to monitor it. They make their independent decisions. And as we always remind you, it's very complex, with over 150 dealers globally and a large number of parts that they order, but they obviously try and optimize their network. Next year, we do expect a benefit from services revenue growth. Obviously, if we are to achieve our target, we would hope for a little bit of an acceleration versus what we saw in 2023. Obviously, that does depend a little bit on what happens with the dealers and buying patents. And on resources, given the amount of truck utilization, we do expect services revenues to improve as we go through 2024 based on the need for rebuilds, particularly of the large mining trucks. So that's where we are on services.
Operator:
And your next question comes from Mig Dobre with Baird. Your line is open.
Mig Dobre:
Yes. Thank you. Thank you for the question. Going back to construction, I'm curious to get your thoughts in terms of how you think about margin here. And it sounds like you're guiding Q1 flat margin year-over-year, which would be tremendous given the comp there. Are margins sustainable at this level? Is there any insight you can give us as to how you see the year progressing beyond Q1?
Andrew Bonfield:
Yeah, there's going to be a couple of things, Mig, which are going to happen as we go through 2024. The one that's a little bit hard to predict at the moment is any potential mix impact. As we said, when we were going through 2023, we biased our production towards machines with the highest levels of OPACC. That's what customers wanted as well. So met customer demand, particularly those products. We expect a more normal mix product. That may have some impact on margins as we go through the year. Obviously, it's a little bit difficult to predict to that at this stage, given that we're at the beginning of the year, but that potentially is the one. We will continue to invest in the business. We are continuing to drive services and services growth. As you know, that's a possible upside potential, particularly in construction, where we have the largest opportunity. So those are the sort of big things or big buckets I would look at as we think through 2024. And both of those, one will be slightly negative and the other one possibly will be slightly more positive. So those are the sort of puts and takes at the moment.
Operator:
And your next question comes from Jerry Revich with Goldman Sachs. Your line is open.
Jerry Revich:
Yes. Hi, good morning, everyone.
Jim Umpleby:
Good morning, Jerry.
Andrew Bonfield:
Good morning, Jerry.
Jerry Revich:
Jim, Andrew, I'm wondering if you could just say more about the increase to the free cash flow guidance, a bigger increase there than on the margin framework. And we're a couple of years away, where you folks in 2020 were below the $5 billion number. So can you just talk about what's playing out better than you folks expected to drive the much stronger outlook for free cash flow conversion? And obviously, we're seeing a little performance here as well, but I'm wondering if you could just expand on the comments on the confidence through the cycle?
Jim Umpleby:
Well, Jerry, you recall when we launched our strategy in 2017, we really focused very heavily on OPACC, operating profit after capital charge. And we're really challenging our teams to work to ensure that we get a return for every dollar of capital that we invest. And we've also worked hard to reduce our structural costs. And again, with OPACC as our measure, that obviously helps us produce more cash. Again, we demonstrated the ability to produce higher free cash flows. If I remember the numbers correctly, between 2019 and 2022, we produced $5 billion to $6 billion of free cash flow. And then in 2020, we had a 22% decline in our top line. And even that year, even during the COVID year, when our top line dropped more than 20%, we still produced $3 billion of free cash flow. So again, we have the whole organization based on OPACC, and that's working all those levers every single day, and that helps us drive increased free cash flow.
Andrew Bonfield:
And that is part of the reason why we've upped the bottom end of the range because we are now more confident that, that OPACC will flow through to the bottom line. Obviously, with margins, the issue you have there is in a period of time where revenues decline, margins become an impact of a function of what happens from a gross margin perspective. Actually on free cash flow, we can generate more free cash flow by actually using up some of our working capital and bringing that back through. And that's one of the things we expect as well and if that happens.
Jim Umpleby:
I’m really glad you asked the question. I think, honestly, that's one thing that maybe is underappreciated about our performance, it's just our ability to produce cash and the way we really transformed the business over the last few years to produce higher free cash flows more consistently.
Operator:
And your next question comes from Angel Castillo with Morgan Stanley. Your line is open.
Angel Castillo:
Hi, good morning, and thanks for taking my question. Just wanted to maybe continue on that note. I wanted to understand a little bit maybe the reasoning or the thought process around not lowering the kind of low end of your operating profit margin range. You talked about the gross margin and you mentioned this in the prior response, but gross margin dynamic, maybe on volumes potentially also leading to a little bit more challenged, lower end of the range. So maybe what gives you confidence in keeping that rather than lowering that as well? And how do you kind of think about a wider range overall through the cycle rather than kind of a step higher?
Andrew Bonfield:
Yeah. So I mean, one of the things you will have seen over the last couple of years is the improvement in gross margins. That obviously -- effectively with the progressive margin range, what happens obviously is, the leverage is what benefits us as we go through, which gives us more confidence now that there's more opportunity from a leverage perspective to drive the top end of the range. But that obviously means on a declining volume basis, there's more pressure. So that really was the reason why we kept the bottom end of the range as it was. Interestingly, if you go back to the previous ranges, this is within -- the top end of the range now is virtually within a very, very marginal difference to the old margin target ranges that we had before.
Operator:
And your next question comes from Chad Dillard with Bernstein. Your line is open.
Chad Dillard:
Hi, good morning, guys.
Jim Umpleby:
Good morning, Chad.
Andrew Bonfield:
Good morning, Chad.
Chad Dillard:
So on the -- on price cost, so I think in your full year guide, you talked about price modestly exceeding manufacturing costs for the full year. But then also, you talk about, I guess, some carryover benefit in the first part. So just trying to understand the cadence on that. And just to confirm, do you expect price cost to be positive for each quarter through the balance of the year?
Andrew Bonfield:
Yeah. So I think what we guided to is that we expect price to exceed manufacturing costs for the full year. We expect price to be positive in the first half of the year, more positive in the first half of the year because of carryover pricing. Obviously, there will be some other factors that go through there. Geographic mix, for example, was positive this year. That may not be as positive as we go through the second part of the year. So those are the sort of mix things that can happen. At this stage, we're not giving you a prediction -- a firm prediction. We know what we think overall for the full year, but most of that price benefit will come through in the first half.
Operator:
And your next question comes from Steve Volkmann with Jefferies. Your line is open.
Steve Volkmann:
Hey, good morning, everybody. Thanks for fitting me in.
Jim Umpleby:
Good morning, Steve.
Steve Volkmann:
Jim, I wanted to go back, if I could, to a response to one of the earlier questions where you talked about supply chain has kind of improved a little bit, but it's still causing productivity issues. And I guess I'm trying to think that through as we go forward, if supply chain continues to normalize, is there any reason to think we wouldn't get that productivity back?
Jim Umpleby:
Well, certainly, that's what we're driving our teams to do. And one of the things we talked about, of course, is we have still constraints in large engines. And that -- we're not -- clearly, we're not running as lean as I would like in that area. And of course, when you have some issues in engines, that can also impact machines as well, just because of the dynamics of shipping engines to our machine lines. So certainly, our goal is to become more lean and to get back into a better operating cadence. And it has improved and supply chain conditions have improved, but we still have a ways to go. But again, difficult to predict how long it will take that to happen. Our engine investment, as we mentioned earlier, is a multiyear investment to increase that capacity for both new engines and for parts. And that -- I think that will be an important element of us achieving better lean operations and getting some of that inventory out internally.
Operator:
And your next question comes from Kristen Owen with Oppenheimer. Your line is open.
Kristen Owen:
Thank you so much for taking the question. Just a longer-term question here related to the hydrogen fuel cell pilot program, just given that secular growth opportunity in data center, how quickly can you commercialize this? And should we expect the business model for Cat to be more systems integration and components or is there some additional vertical integration in like the balance of systems that is being supported by this capital campaign that you outlined? Thank you.
Jim Umpleby:
Yeah. Again, most of the capital -- the investments that we're making around large engines, around parts, and new engines, that's really what the focus of it is.
Andrew Bonfield:
Yeah. And so, I mean, overall, when we look out, one of the opportunities for us, particularly when Jim was talking about distributed generation, was the fact that, obviously, grid stability is going to be an issue. And one of the things that's going to be needed is there are system hole, system projects that will be part of that. So I think there is definitely an opportunity for us there to think more broadly about services in those environments as well.
Ryan Fiedler:
We have time for one more question.
Operator:
Thank you. And today's final question comes from Stanley Elliott with Stifel. Your line is open.
Stanley Elliott:
Hey, good morning everyone. Thank you very much for fitting me in and congratulations. And can you talk a little bit more about the free cash flow? I mean, you got $1 billion to $2 billion more additional that you're looking at and targeting. You've done a very nice job of increasing the dividend on a steady basis. Should we think of this as accelerated repurchase activity into '24? Is there something on the M&A front? Any color there would be greatly helpful. Thank you.
Jim Umpleby:
Yeah. Really, what we continue to talk about is the fact that we will -- we intend to return essentially all free cash flow to shareholders over time through a combination of dividends and share repurchases. In terms of M&A, we're always open to opportunities. But frankly, we believe we have outstanding opportunities to grow our business organically. And so while we have made some relatively small acquisitions to do things like games and technology, or we think about the [SPM and oil] (ph) and gas to expand our product line a bit, we're really focused on organically growing our business because we think we have great opportunities around services. We talked about the secular growth trend around data centers. We -- LNG -- conditional LNG exports, the fact that the energy transition will create opportunities for commodities increase over time. So again, our primary focus is on organically growing our business.
Jim Umpleby:
Okay. With that, I just would like to thank everyone for joining the call. I appreciate all your questions. I'd like to just close by thanking our global team for another great quarter and just an exceptional record year. As we discussed, we're increasing the top end of our target range for adjusted operating profit margins, and we've raised our target range for ME&T free cash flow. And this reflects continuing healthy customer demand as well as our strong operating performance. And we remain focused on executing our strategy and continue to invest for long-term profitable growth. Again, I appreciate you joining us. Stay safe.
Ryan Fiedler:
Thanks, everybody, and thank you, Jim, Andrew and everyone who joined the call today. A replay of our call will be available online later this morning. We'll also post a transcript on our Investor Relations website as soon as it's available. You'll also find a fourth quarter results video with our CFO and an SEC filing with our sales to users’ data. Click on investors.caterpillar.com, and then click on Financials to view those materials. If you have any questions, please reach out to Rob or me. The Investor Relations general phone number is (309) 675-4549. Now let's turn the call back to Abby to conclude our call.
Operator:
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes our call. We thank you for joining. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the Third Quarter 2023 Caterpillar Earnings Conference Call. Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Ryan Fiedler. Thank you, and please go ahead.
Ryan Fiedler:
Thanks, Abby. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Caterpillar's third quarter of 2023 earnings call. I'm Ryan Fiedler, Vice President of Investor Relations. Joining me today are Jim Umpleby, Chairman and CEO; Andrew Bonfield, Chief Financial Officer; Kyle Epley, Senior Vice President of the Global Finance Services Division; and Rob Rengel, Senior IR Manager. During our call, we'll be discussing the third quarter earnings release we issued earlier today. You can find our slides, the news release, and a webcast recap at investors.caterpillar.com under Events and Presentations. The content of this call is protected by US and international copyright law. Any rebroadcast, retransmission, reproduction, or distribution of all or part of this content without Caterpillar's prior written permission is prohibited. Moving to Slide 2. During our call today, we'll make forward-looking statements, which are subject to risks and uncertainties. We'll also make assumptions that could cause our actual results to be different than the information we're sharing with you on this call. Please refer to our recent SEC filings, and the forward-looking statements reminder in the news release for details on factors that individually, or in aggregate, could cause our actual results to vary materially from our forecast. A detailed discussion of our many factors that we believe may have a material effect on our business, on an ongoing basis, is contained in our SEC filings. On today's call, we'll also refer to non-GAAP numbers. For a reconciliation of any non-GAAP numbers to the appropriate US GAAP numbers, please see the appendix of the earnings call slides. Now, let's turn to Slide 3, and turn the call over to our Chairman and CEO, Jim Umpleby.
Jim Umpleby:
Thanks, Ryan. Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us. Before discussing our results, I'd like to take a moment to acknowledge the tragic events in the Middle East. We are deeply saddened by the loss of life, and are hopeful for a quick and peaceful resolution. The Caterpillar Foundation is donating $1 million to the American Red Cross, and its network of Red Crescent Societies in the region, to support the humanitarian needs of those impacted. As we closed out the third quarter, I want to thank our global team for delivering another strong quarter. This included double-digit top line growth, strong adjusted operating profit margin, and robust ME&T free cash flow. Our results continue to reflect healthy demand across most of our end markets for our products and services. We remain focused on executing our strategy, and continue to invest for long-term profitable growth. I'll begin with my perspectives about our performance in the quarter. I'll then provide some insights about our end markets. Lastly, I'll provide an update on our sustainability journey. Moving to quarterly results, it was another strong quarter. Sales and revenues increased 12% in the third quarter versus last year. Adjusted operating profit margin improved to 20.8%, up significantly year-over-year. We also generated $2.9 billion of ME&T free cash flow in the quarter. Sales were generally in line with our expectations, while both adjusted operating profit margin, and ME&T free cash flow in the third quarter were better than we expected. In addition, we ended the quarter with a healthy backlog of $28.1 billion. Backlog is a function of demand and lead times. As I've mentioned, demand remains healthy in most of our end markets. Due to improving supply chain conditions, product availability and lead times have improved for many products. Dealers and customers can wait longer to place orders, which has led to a moderation in order rates, as expected. In addition, we have seen a reduction in dealer orders for building construction products, which we anticipated, due to the changeover to CAT engines that we previously discussed, and for excavation, in anticipation of dealers reducing their inventories in the fourth quarter. Although, our backlog declined as expected, it still remains elevated as a percentage of revenues compared to historic levels. While we continue to closely monitor global macroeconomic conditions, we now expect our full-year 2023 results to be better than we anticipated during our last earnings call. Turning to Slide 4. In the third quarter of 2023, sales and revenues increased by 12% to $16.8 billion, driven primarily by favorable price realization, as well as volume growth. Sales increased in each of our three primary segments. Compared with the third quarter of 2022, overall sales to users increased 13%, which was below our expectations. Energy & Transportation sales to users increased 34%, but was lower than expected due to some supply chain challenges for large engines, and the timing of gas turbine in international locomotive deliveries. For machines, which includes Construction Industries and Resource Industries, sales to users rose by 7%, in line with expectations. Sales to users in Construction Industries were up 6%. North American sales to users increased as demand remained healthy for non-residential, and residential construction. Non-residential continued to benefit from government-related infrastructure and construction projects. Residential sales to users in North America also increased in the quarter. EAME sales to users were up slightly, primarily due to continuing strength in Middle East construction activity. In Latin America and Asia-Pacific, sales to users declined in the quarter. In Resource Industries, sales to users increased 10%. In mining, sales to users increased with commodities remaining above investment thresholds. Within heavy construction, and quarry and aggregates, sales to users also increased, supported by growth for infrastructure-related projects. In Energy & Transportation, sales to users increased by 34%. All applications saw higher sales to users in the quarter. Oil and gas sales to users benefited from strong sales of turbines, and turbine-related services. We also saw continued strength in sales of reciprocating engines into oil and gas applications such as Tier 4 dynamic gas blending, repowering well servicing fleets and gas compression. Power generation sales to users continued to remain positive, due to favorable market conditions, including strong data center growth. Industrial and transportation sales to users also increased. Dealer inventories increased by $600 million in the quarter, led by Construction Industries and followed by Energy & Transportation. In Construction Industries, the increase was in North America in some of our most constrained product lines including BCP and Earthmoving. We remain very comfortable with the total level of dealer inventory, which is within the typical range. Andrew will provide more color later in the call. Adjusted operating profit margin increased to 20.8% in the third quarter, a 430 basis point increase over last year. Adjusted operating profit margin was better than we had anticipated. Relative to our expectations, we saw lower-than-expected manufacturing costs, including freight, as well as slightly favorable price realization, which included the positive impact from geographic mix. Moving to Slide 5. We generated strong ME&T free cash flow of $2.9 billion in the third quarter, and $6.8 billion in the first three quarters of 2023. Year-to-date, we returned $4.1 billion to shareholders, which included about $2.2 billion of repurchased stock, and $1.9 billion in dividends. We remain proud of our Dividend Aristocrat status, and continue to expect to return substantially all ME&T free cash flow to shareholders over time through dividends and share repurchases. Now on Slide 6, I'll describe our expectations moving forward. As I mentioned earlier, we now anticipate the full year to be better than we previously expected. We expect our adjusted operating profit margin to be slightly above the targeted range relative to the corresponding level of sales. This positive operating performance increases our expectations for ME&T free cash flow, which we now expect will exceed the $4 billion to $8 billion target range for the full year. This outlook for the adjusted operating profit margin, and ME&T free cash flow, reflects healthy customer demand and our strong operating performance. Now, I'll discuss our outlook for key end markets starting with Construction Industries. In North America overall, we continue to see positive momentum. We expect continued growth in non-residential construction in North America due to the impact of government-related infrastructure investments, and a healthy pipeline of construction projects. Although, residential construction growth has moderated, we expect it to remain healthy. In Asia Pacific, excluding China, we expect growth in Construction Industries due to public infrastructure spending, in support of commodity prices. As we have mentioned during previous earnings calls, we anticipate continued weakness in China, and expect it to remain well below our typical range of 5% to 10% of enterprise sales. In EAME, we anticipate the region will be slightly down as weakness continues in Europe, partially offset by continuing strong construction demand in the Middle East. Construction activity in Latin America is expected to be about flat versus strong 2022 performance. In Resource Industries, we continue to see a high level of quoting activity. In mining, customer product utilization remains high. The number of parked trucks remains low, and the age of the fleet remains elevated. Order rates are slightly lower than we expected at this time, reflecting continued capital discipline by our customers. We continue to believe the energy transition will support increased commodity demand over time, expanding our total addressable market, and providing further opportunities for long-term profitable growth. In addition, customer acceptance of our autonomous solutions continues to grow. This is evidenced by the announcement this morning with Freeport-McMoRan, who will convert their fleet of Cat 793 large mining trucks at an Arizona copper mine to autonomous haulage using Cat MineStar Command. We also expect heavy construction, and quarry and aggregates to remain in healthy levels due to major infrastructure in non-residential construction projects. Moving to Energy & Transportation. In oil and gas, we remain encouraged by continuing strong demand for Cat reciprocating engines and gas compression. As we said last quarter, well servicing in North America is showing some short-term moderation, but we remain optimistic about future demand. Cat reciprocating engine demand for power generation is expected to remain strong, primarily driven by data center growth. New equipment and services for solar turbines in both oil and gas and power generation remain robust. Industrial demand is expected to soften slightly from recent high levels, but remains well above our historical averages. In transportation, we anticipate strength in high-speed marine as customers continue to upgrade aging fleets. As we've described, we continue to see strength in most of our end markets. Based on our backlog, dealer inventory, and current market conditions, we expect to have another good year in 2024. We will provide additional information during our fourth quarter call. Moving to Slide 7. We continue to advance our sustainability journey. We're helping our customers achieve their climate related objectives by continuing to invest in new products, technologies, and services, that facilitate fuel flexibility, increased operational efficiency, and reduced emissions. For example, Caterpillar provides a number of low-carbon intensity solutions to customers. In Construction Industries, the Cat 980 XE Wheel Loader, which features a Cat designed and manufactured continuous variable transmission, improves fuel efficiency by as much as 35%, and reduces CO2 emissions by as much as 17% compared to the previous model. We also introduced the new Cat G3600 Gen 2 engine, the latest evolution of the powerful G3600 series, offering lower emissions. With more than 8,500 Cat G3600 units in the field, the Gen 2 engine is designed to build upon the platform's robust performance, to provide a 10% increase in power, and lower emissions compared to the previous model. We've also made several joint announcements with customers that demonstrate our commitment to supporting their climate-related objectives. I'll highlight one here. In September, Caterpillar and Albemarle introduced a unique collaboration, aimed to support their efforts to establish Kings Mountain, North Carolina as the first-ever zero emissions lithium mine in North America, while also making lithium available for use in Caterpillar battery production. These examples reinforce our ongoing sustainability leadership, and how we're helping our customers build a better, more sustainable world. With that, I will turn it over to Andrew.
Andrew Bonfield:
Thank you, Jim, and good morning, everyone. I'll begin with commentary on the third quarter results, including the performance of our segments. Then, I'll discuss the balance sheet and cash flow, before concluding with our assumptions for the fourth quarter and full year. Beginning on Slide 8. Our overall operating performance was strong. Adjusted operating profit margin, adjusted profit per share, and ME&T free cash flow, all were better than we expected, while sales grew in line with our expectations. Based on the strong third quarter, and year-to-date operating performance, we now expect that the adjusted operating profit margin for the year will be slightly above the top end of our target range, at the corresponding level of sales. We also anticipate that ME&T free cash flow will exceed the target range of $4 billion to $8 billion. In summary, sales and revenues increased by 12% or $1.8 billion to $16.8 billion. The sales increase versus the prior year was driven by -- primarily by price realization, as well as higher sales volume. Operating profit increased by 42% or $1 billion to $3.4 billion. The adjusted operating profit margin was 20.8%, an increase of 430 basis points versus the prior year. Profit per share was $5.45 in the third quarter of this year. This included restructuring costs of $0.07 per share as compared to $0.08 in the prior year. We continue to expect restructuring expenses of about $700 million for the full year. Adjusted profit per share increased by 40% to $5.52 in the third quarter compared to $3.95 last year. Other income of $195 million was lower than that -- than the third quarter of 2022 by $47 million. The decline was driven by less favorable currency impacts in the quarter, related to ME&T balance sheet translation, as compared to the prior year, along with the recurring increase and a pension expense of approximately $18 million per quarter. Higher investment and interest income acted as a partial offset. The provision for income taxes in the third quarter, excluding discrete items, reflected a global annual effective tax rate of 22.5%, which is the rate we now expect for the full year. The slightly lower-than-expected tax rate, along with discrete items, added about $0.14 to profit per share in the quarter. Moving on to Slide 9. As I mentioned, the 12% increase in the top line versus the prior year was primarily due to price realization, as well as higher sales volume. Volume improved as sales to users increased by 13% while year-over-year changes in dealer inventory acted as a slight offset. Overall, the magnitude of the sales increase was in line with our expectations. However, by segment, construction Industries sales were higher, Resource Industries sales were in line, and Energy & Transportation sales were lower than we had anticipated. Services revenues increased in the third quarter. We will update you with our progress towards our services growth target when we report our fourth quarter results, and as is our normal practice. Price realization was slightly better than we had anticipated for the quarter. However, as we anticipated, we did see the magnitude of the year-over-year price effects moderate compared to the second quarter, as we lap the prior-year price increases. Volume was slightly below our expectations. As Jim mentioned, sales to users were lower than we had anticipated, principally in Energy & Transportation. However, this was nearly offset by the increase in dealer inventory versus our expectations of being about flat for the quarter. The increase in dealer inventory was driven primarily by Construction Industries. There, we had stronger-than-expected shipments in North America, particularly in building construction products, and earthmoving. Within North America, these products remain constrained, and are near the bottom end of the typical dealer inventory range of three to four months of sales. We also saw some dealer inventory increase in Energy & Transportation within the quarter. I'll remind you that dealer inventory in Energy & Transportation and Resource Industries is mainly a function of the commissioning pipeline, with over 70% of dealer inventory in these segments backed by firm customer orders. Because dealer inventory is more a functioning -- function of commissioning in Resource Industries and Energy & Transportation, it is difficult for us to predict in these two segments. I will discuss further our full-year expectations for dealer inventories a little bit later. Moving to Slide 10. Third quarter operating profit increased by 42% to $3.4 billion, while adjusted operating profit increased by 41% to $3.5 billion. Price realization, which included a slight benefit from a shift in the geographic mix of sales and sales volume were favorable in the quarter. Our largest headwinds to operating profit were higher SG&A and R&D expenses, and higher manufacturing costs. SG&A and R&D expenses included higher strategic investment spend. Manufacturing cost increases included higher material costs, and unfavorable cost absorption, as we reduced our inventories compared to a corresponding increase in the third quarter of 2022. Lower freight costs acted as a partial offset within manufacturing costs. The adjusted operating profit margin of 20.8% improved by 430 basis points. This was better than we had anticipated, primarily due to favorable manufacturing costs, of which freight was the largest contributor. Also, the slightly better-than-expected price helped margins. Now, I'll discuss the performance of the segments. On Slide 11, Construction Industries sales increased by 12% in the third quarter to $7 billion, primarily due to favorable price realization. By region, sales in North America rose by 31% due to higher sales volume and favorable price. As I mentioned, supply chain improvements enabled stronger-than-expected shipments in North America, which supported some dealer restocking. Sales of equipment to end users were in line with our expectations for the region. Sales in Latin America decreased by 31%, primarily due to lower sales volume, partially offset by favorable price. In EAME, sales increased by 8%, mainly due to favorable price and currency impacts. Sales in Asia Pacific decreased by 8%, primarily due to lower sales volume, driven by lower sales of equipment to end users. Third quarter profit for Construction Industries increased by 53% versus the prior year to $1.8 billion. The increase was mainly due to favorable price realization. The segment's operating margin of 26.4% was an increase of 710 basis points versus last year. Margin exceeded our expectations on better volume, price, and lower-than-anticipated manufacturing costs, primarily freight. Turning to Slide 12, Resource Industries sales grew by 9% in the third quarter to $3.4 billion. The increase was primarily due to favorable price realization, partially offset by lower sales volume. Volume decreased as higher sales of equipment to end users were more than offset by lower aftermarket [sale parts] (ph) volume, which reflected changes in dealer buying patterns. Third quarter profit for Resource Industries increased by 44% versus the prior year to $730 million, mainly due to favorable price realization. Profit was partially offset by the by the impact of lower sales volume, which included unfavorable product mix. The segment's operating margin of 21.8% was an increase of 540 basis points versus last year. Margin was better than we had expected, primarily due to lower-than-anticipated manufacturing costs, driven by freight and price. Now on Slide 13. Energy & Transportation sales increased by 11% in the third quarter to $6.9 billion. Sales were up across all applications. Oil and gas sales increased by 26%, power generation sales were higher by 21%, industrial sales rose by 5% and transportation sales increased by 6%. Third quarter profit for Energy & Transportation increased by 26% versus the prior year to $1.2 billion. The increase was mainly due to favorable price realization, and higher sales volume, partially offset by higher SG&A and R&D expenses, unfavorable manufacturing costs, and currency impacts. SG&A and R&D expenses reflected ramping investments related to strategic growth initiatives. As a reminder, the most of our strategic investments relating to electrification and alternative fuels occur in this segment, which impacts reported margins. The segment's operating margin of 17.2% was an increase of 210 basis points versus the prior year. Margin was lower than we had anticipated, primarily due to lower-than-expected sales volume, impacted by supply chain challenges for large engines, and delivery delays for solar turbines. Moving to Slide 14. Financial Products revenue increased by 20% to $979 million, primarily due to higher average financing rates across all regions. Segment profit decreased by 8% to $203 million. The decrease was mainly due to a higher provision for credit losses at Cat Financial. The unfavorable impact reflects a challenging comparison as we had reserve releases in the prior year, as compared to a more typical provision expense in the third quarter of 2023. Of note though, through the third quarter of this year, provision expense for a comparable nine-month period is at the lowest level for over 20 years. Business activity remains strong with our -- and our portfolio continues to perform well, with past dues and write-offs at historic low levels. Past dues in the quarter were 1.96%, a 4 basis point improvement compared to the third quarter of 2022, and a decrease of 19 basis points compared to the second quarter. Retail new business volume increased versus the prior year, and though it declined compared to the second quarter, this follows the typical seasonal pattern. In addition, we continue to see strong demand for used equipment, and used inventory remains at low levels. Now on Slide 15. Our ME&T free cash flow has been robust this year with another $2.9 billion generated during the third quarter. With $6.8 billion generated through the first three quarters of this year, we expect to exceed our target of $4 billion to $8 billion this year. From a working capital perspective, we had a small inventory decrease of around $200 million in the quarter. Looking ahead, we expect our inventory levels will continue to decrease as we've seen sustained supply chain improvement. CapEx in the third quarter was around $400 million. With about $1.1 billion in CapEx through the first three quarters, we continue to expect around $1.5 billion for the full year. Our balance sheet remains strong. We have ample liquidity with an enterprise cash balance of $6.5 billion, and we hold an additional $4.3 billion in slightly longer-dated liquid marketable securities to improve yields on that cash. Now on Slide 16. I will share some high-level assumptions for the fourth quarter and the full year. During the fourth quarter, we anticipate slightly higher sales as compared to the prior year. Price should remain favorable. We expect sales to users to continue to support good underlying growth, though, changes in dealer inventories should act as an offset. As a reminder, we saw dealers increase inventories by $700 million in the fourth quarter of 2022, whilst we expect a decrease in the fourth quarter of this year. Specifically in Construction Industries, we do not expect the seasonal sales increase typically seen from the third to the fourth quarter. Those sales to users are expected to increase on both a sequential and year-over-year basis. Instead, we anticipate lower shipment volumes, as we complete the Cat engine changeover in building construction products, and dealers reduced their inventories, principally of excavators. This compares to a dealer inventory increase in the fourth quarter of 2022. Though we now expect that dealer inventory in Construction Industries will be higher at the end of 2023 than it was at year end 2022, we still expect it to be within the typical three to four months of sales range. A reminder, this is an average across all dealers and all products in Construction Industries, and it's difficult to predict with precision, given over 150 independent dealers, and hundreds of different products. Similar to last quarter, there are still areas and/or products where dealers would like to have more inventory. As Jim has mentioned, we are very comfortable with the level of inventory held by dealers overall. In Resource Industries, we anticipate slightly lower sales as compared to the third quarter, as a result of improvements in availability. We also expect lower sales versus the prior year, driven by changes in dealer inventory. In the fourth quarter of 2022, there was an increase in dealer inventories for Resource Industries, while we expect a decrease in the fourth quarter of this year. We expect sales in Energy & Transportation to increase in the fourth quarter as compared to the third quarter, with higher solar turbines and rail deliveries. However, keep in mind that we continue to work through supply chain challenges, primarily impacting large engines. We also anticipate some moderation in industrial sales during the fourth quarter, compared to recent high levels. Now, I'll comment on our expectations for margins. We provided our adjusted operating profit margin target charge to assist you in your modeling process. Based on our current planning assumptions, we anticipate the adjusted operating profit margin to be slightly above the target range for the full year 2023. This is based on the corresponding estimated level of sales. Your expectation for total enterprise sales this year will inform where margins could finish for the year. Specific to the fourth quarter, we anticipate the adjusted operating profit margin to be lower than the third quarter. We anticipate lower-than-normal volume leverage, particularly impacting Construction Industries, for the reasons I mentioned previously. We also anticipate a negative segment mix impact to impact operating margins, as Construction Industries sales would be a lower proportion of total sales, as compared to the third quarter. Price realization should remain positive, though we expect the magnitude of the favorability versus the prior year to moderate as we continue to lap more favorable pricing trends from last year. Therefore, the increases in margins that have occurred from price outpacing manufacturing cost inflation, should moderate in the fourth quarter. In addition, as you look down the income statement for the prior year, there are a couple of points to note. First, short-term incentive expense in the fourth quarter of 2022 was lower than normal due to the true up for the final outcomes for the financial year. This will be a headwind for year-over-year operating margins. However, this will be partially offset by favorability in other operating income and expense, as we do not expect the significant currency translation losses that we saw in the fourth quarter of last year to recur. By segment, in Construction Industries, we expect slightly lower margin compared to the third quarter, assuming lower volume. We also anticipate lower sequential margins in Resource Industries, as is typical, impacted by cost absorption, along with higher spend, relating to strategic investments. In Energy & Transportation, we expect margins will be similar to the third quarter, with stronger volume offset by manufacturing costs, and an unfavorable mix of products, which includes international locomotive deliveries in rail. Now turning to Slide 17, let me summarize. Adjusted profit per share was $15.98 through the first three quarters of the year, which already exceeds our previous full year record by 15%. We generated strong adjusted operating profit margin, with a 430 basis point increase to 20.8%. We now expect to be slightly above the targeted range for adjusted operating profit margin for the full year, based on our expected sales levels. ME&T free cash flow remained robust with $6.8 billion year-to-date. We now expect ME&T free cash flow to exceed our $4 billion to $8 billion target range for the full year. We continue to execute our strategy for long-term profitable growth. And with that, we'll take your questions.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] And your first question comes from Michael Feniger with Bank of America. Your line is open.
Michael Feniger:
Yeah, thank you for taking my question. Just based on where the backlog sits today, you discussed the easing supply conditions impacting lead times, orders. As that normalizes, do you expect the backlog to consolidate at these levels and then move higher? You mentioned some capital discipline with customers. Just [Technical Difficulty] Jim with where commodity prices are for oil, iron ore, copper, is that enough to support growth in 2024? Thank you.
Jim Umpleby:
Yeah, as I mentioned, we do expect another good year in 2024, and we'll provide more detail in January. We talked about this a bit in our last quarterly call. Our backlog is higher than it normally would be because our lead times are higher than I'd like them to be frankly, and what we've talked about is as supply conditions continue to improve, we expect lead times to come down, which should have a corresponding impact on our backlog. Our backlog should come down, so that's a positive thing. If you look at our backlog over a number of years, it's still elevated compared to where it normally would be, based on revenue. So again, we do feel good about market conditions, and we expect that as we improve lead times that backlog as a percentage of revenue would come down to more normal levels.
Andrew Bonfield:
Yeah, let me just give you some numbers to add to that. I mean, if you look at the backlog as a percentage of trailing 12-month revenues in the period of 2017, it was 37%, in 2018, it was 32%. Currently today, it's around 44%. So, backlog still is elevated based on historic trends, and remind you also that services revenues now are a higher proportion of our total revenue base as well.
Operator:
And we will take our next question from Tami Zakaria with JP Morgan. Your line is open.
Tami Zakaria:
Hi, good morning. Thank you so much. So, staying on backlog…
Jim Umpleby:
Morning, Tami.
Tami Zakaria:
Thank you. Staying on backlog, I think orders were down in the third quarter. Have you seen any improvement in order trends quarter-to-date, or if orders continue to be down, what would support a good year in 2024, like you mentioned in your call?
Jim Umpleby:
Yeah. Again, we expected some moderation in order rates based on, again, improving availability, so that wasn't a surprise to us. Again, what would give us another good year in 2024 is market conditions. I mean, again, if we look at where we are in most of the markets we serve, we feel quite good, starting with just with Construction Industries in North America, the infrastructure investments that are being made by the government, although we are starting, we have seen some benefit of that, we expect more benefit in 2024 residential, although the growth rate has continued to moderate in North America, it is still growing, and oil and gas still remains quite healthy for solar turbines. Gas compression in oil and gas is strong as well. So, again, there's a lot of positive things. Power generation, data center growth, continues to provide a tailwind as well. So again, the market conditions would lead us to believe that we'll have another good year next year.
Andrew Bonfield:
And, Tami, just to add, again, a little bit more. Remind you that specifically in the third quarter, there were two factors which did impact order rates, one which is, obviously, as we've talked about the Cat engine changeover for a number of quarters, that happening in the fourth quarter. If you think about when dealers will place orders for BCP machines, they would tend to impact us in the third quarter, which is why we saw those order rates decline. Similarly, we also saw some excavator orders decline in anticipation of dealers reducing their inventory levels as well. So overall, those are specific factors in the third quarter results, which actually moderated the overall order rates as well.
Jim Umpleby:
Maybe just another comment about the BCP changeover. We deliberately limit the number of orders because we have a fixed amount of machines being built prior to that changeover to the new model. And then we close the order board at some point when we run out of allocation spots, and we haven't yet opened the order board for the new model. So again, that helps explain the reduction in order rates for BCP around that engine changeover. And again, as expected, we also have talked about the fact that we expect dealers to bring down excavator inventory. And again, that would reflect -- that would result in a lower order rate as well for CI for excavators. So, again, none of this is surprising.
Operator:
And we'll take our next question from Rob Wertheimer with Melius Research. Your line is open.
Rob Wertheimer:
Yes, hi. My question is on resources, and it's going to be basically on business model, revenue model, and margin. And so, you announced the deal with Freeport today on retrofit of autonomous mining trucks, and I know you've had retrofit for a while. I don't recall an announcement quite this big, although maybe I've missed one or two. But the question is, really, as you see deals like that, you deliver value to customers through autonomous operations, saving direct and indirect costs, how do you think about margin support for you guys? And then, how do you think about market share going forward? I think a year ago, you'd sort of run a large majority of autonomous mining contracts, or tenders out there, and I'm wondering if you can give us an update on that. So kind of market share margin and business development. Thank you.
Jim Umpleby:
You bet. And Rob, we have talked in the past about the fact that we are very bullish about our autonomous solution. We do believe we have the best solution in the industry because our trucks move faster, and we're able to allow our customers to produce more commodity in a 24-hour period. We continue to invest in our autonomous capabilities, and continue to add more value, and that's really resulting in us receiving the orders like the ones that -- the one that was announced this morning. Certainly, we're always striving to add more value that helps, again, it's not just about cost competition, it's providing more value to customers to make them more successful. We had talked about the fact that our customers in mining are displaying capital discipline. That's not surprising. Quotation activity is quite high, and number of parked trucks is low. So again, if one thinks about the energy transition, combines that with our autonomous solution, we do feel good about Resource Industries, particularly in mining moving forward.
Operator:
And we'll take our next question from David Raso with Evercore. Your line is open.
David Raso:
Hi, thank you for the time. The question is on the fourth quarter margins. I know the framework you historically work within for providing margin guidance, but I must say the fourth quarter, I mean, it's implying a range of EPS that you can drive a truck through. So, I'm just trying to get a little better sense of -- I think I heard you say the margins in CI and RI slightly below the third quarter, and E&T similar. But then when you give that range of [whatever] (ph) you think your sales are, I mean, we have a rough idea of what you're thinking for sales given the fourth quarter guide. I'm just trying to get a sense of margins year-over-year at least appear that they'll be up. Is that a fair statement? But the slight on RI and CI almost make it seem like it's down only 100 bps or 150 bps sequentially. So, I apologize for the granularity, but it's just a wide range. I just want to make sure we understand. Thank you.
Andrew Bonfield:
Yeah, David, thank you. So, obviously, we're slightly different. So if you got to think about it from a sequential basis and also year-over-year, so we try to give a little bit of color on both. On a sequential basis, we do expect, obviously, both CI and RI margins to decline. If you think normally, there's a seasonality for both of those. What exacerbates that probably above the normal level of seasonality, particularly in CI, is the expectation for volume to impact -- be impacted by dealer inventory. So that will have a slightly bigger impact than normal on CI. On E&T, as I said, we expect them to be broadly flat compared to the third quarter. Some of that is due to product mix, and timing of international rail deliveries, which are low-margin business. Then, on top of that -- so that's sequential, quarter-over-quarter driving that. And then if you look year-over-year, obviously, yes, we do expect both CI and RI and E&T to show margin improvement year-over-year. What will slightly offset that will be some increase in corporate items as a result of the true up of incentive comp that I talked about a moment ago. On a PPS basis, offsetting that will be some favorability in other income and expense because last year, if you remember, we did have a big one-time charge for currency translation losses, which impacted the fourth quarter. So hopefully, that gives you a little bit more color overall, but that's sort of trying to get the way we can guide you from a margin perspective. Hopefully, that's helpful.
Operator:
We will take our next question from Steven Fisher with UBS. Your line is open.
Steven Fisher:
Thanks. Good morning. So clearly, terrific margins this year. Pricing is such a strong driver at the moment, but year-over-year, as you said, it's moderating a bit. I'm just curious about your strategy on how to manage in a lower pricing growth environment going forward. I mean, to what extent do you think you can ramp up the cost focus there, and if that's a key part of the plan, kind of what are the biggest opportunities for cost savings next year, or do you think the sort of a narrow -- narrower price versus cost is really just the base case from here?
Jim Umpleby:
Well, thank you, Steven. And as we mentioned, we do expect pricing to moderate just based on lapping the price increase that -- increases that we had last year. We're continually focused on having a lower cost structure. We're looking for ways to reduce structural cost. A lot of things there back office now being performed in lower-cost countries, more engineering done in lower-cost countries, looking at ways to become more efficient. I also mentioned the fact that we -- supply chain has improved, but we still have some challenges, and some surprises there that create some incremental cost due to inefficiencies based on having shortages. So, I do believe there's still an opportunity for us moving forward to operate more efficiently in our manufacturing operations, and also to find ways to reduce structural costs. We really try to make that a way of life going forward as always finding ways to reduce structural costs.
Operator:
And we will take our next question from Tim Thein with Citigroup. Your line is open.
Tim Thein:
Hi. Good morning. Thanks for the time. Yeah, maybe just continuing on that thread there in terms of pricing, and just thinking about kind of the outlook into '24, I'm interested from a competitive dynamic, if you look historically, especially focused in CI in a market with a lot of global competitors, and just looking at the dollar-yen relationship where it is at near decade-high levels, just maybe talk about what you're seeing -- what your dealers are seeing from a competitive dynamics, and your thoughts into '24 in terms, and how that interplays with pricing. Thank you.
Jim Umpleby:
Yeah. A lot of dynamics there. One, of course, is the strength of the market. So if you think about the strength of the market in North America for the reasons we’ve described, infrastructure spending and continued growth in residential, and certainly we feel good about market conditions. Competition, we've always had competition. We always will. We make pricing decisions based on a whole variety of factors. Certainly, we look at input cost, we look at our competitors, we look at other factors in the market, and we make decisions. There's no one big decision. We make a whole variety of decisions based on what we're seeing in the market at any one time. We're always focused on remaining competitive pricing for value. No one likes to raise prices. But of course, in the last couple of years, we've been in an inflationary cost environment, but we're always looking to add more value to our customers, adding technology, things to make our customers more efficient. And you stop and think about the labor shortage that we have now. Some of the technology that we're putting into our Construction Industries products allows less experienced operators to be more effective more quickly. And so all those kinds of things help add value to our customers. And of course, we're investing in our digital capabilities and our services capabilities as well to help reduce downtime -- unplanned downtime, increase productivity. So that all goes into it. But certainly, we recognize it's a competitive world out there, always has been and always will be. But we feel confident about our ability to continue to compete effectively.
Operator:
And we will take our next question from Nicole DeBlase with Deutsche Bank. Your line is open.
Nicole DeBlase:
Yeah, thanks. Good morning, guys.
Jim Umpleby:
Good morning, Nicole.
Andrew Bonfield:
Good morning, Nicole.
Nicole DeBlase:
Just on the parts demand, noticed that you guys caught out a decline in aftermarket parts in resource as a driver of volume decline there. If you could talk a little bit about that? And then any color on parts demand in construction or E&T? Thank you.
Andrew Bonfield:
Yeah, Nicole, thank you. Within Resource Industries, the volume did decline. It doesn't necessarily mean the absolute dollar value declined, but the volume decline was partly due to dealer buying patterns. And so that was a factor within resources. Overall, we're still very comfortable with the growth rate of aftermarket parts volumes. And we'll give you the update as per normal, as I said in my remarks, in January. But overall, services revenues still continue to grow and are a very good factor for us, as you know, given our drive to double services revenue to $28 billion by 2026.
Jim Umpleby:
And dealer sales to customers were up in the quarter.
Andrew Bonfield:
Yeah.
Operator:
And we will take our next question from Chad Dillard with Bernstein. Your line is open.
Chad Dillard:
Hi, good morning, guys.
Jim Umpleby:
Hi, Chad.
Chad Dillard:
More of a bigger picture question. So I was hoping you could give us an update on your approach to rental. So to what extent are you looking to expand your footprint through dealers in this channel? And if you can share how much of the sales today come through this channel today? And then if we do see any near-term air pocket, do you think any expansion could provide an offset?
Jim Umpleby:
Yeah, we do see rental as a growth opportunity, and we're working with our dealers to improve our rental business. We set up a new division in last year or so with a senior -- experienced Senior Vice President leading that division to help increase rental. The rental industry is, in fact, growing. And so we've been refreshing our rental growth strategy and working with our dealers to allow them to more sustainably grow revenue in rental. So again, it's -- we do think it's an opportunity. It's a good one for us to be focused on.
Operator:
And we will take our next question from Kristen Owen with Oppenheimer. Your line is open.
Kristen Owen:
Great, good morning. Thank you for the question.
Jim Umpleby:
Hey, Kristen.
Kristen Owen:
I was wondering if you could provide a little bit more commentary on the manufacturing cost increase in the quarter, just how to think about that going forward. I mean, this was -- this is the easiest comparison of the year, and in a more favorable cost environment. So, just trying to think about how much of the manufacturing cost increase was maybe related to timing of orders versus we're still seeing some inflation in the supply chain.
Andrew Bonfield:
Yeah. We are still seeing -- it's a bit mixed across the businesses. Material costs are still growing in some areas, and other areas growing less rapidly. So that's sort of the bigger part of that from an overall manufacturing cost perspective. Other factors include things like, particularly for us this quarter, things like absorption impacted us, particularly in Resource Industries, for example, where we built inventory last year, and had inventory reductions this year. But overall, we are seeing lower levels of manufacturing cost inflation than we have done historically, and partly offset by some benefits in freight, which are helping us. Really does depend by segment by segment. So, one of the things, just to remind everybody, we are not a uniform business, as far as we only serve one market. We serve a variety of different markets, markets around different parts of the growth phase as a result of post the COVID impact. That means that therefore, that some of those cost increases are coming through in a different way from business to business, as well as then our ability to price to offset some of that as well.
Operator:
And we will take our next question from Mig Dobre with Baird. Your line is open.
Mig Dobre:
Yes. Thank you. Good morning. I wanted to ask a question surrounding dealer inventories. They built $2.6 billion year-to-date, which seems to be a little bit different than the way you were framing expectations. So I guess I'm curious, first, how do you expect dealer inventory still exiting 2023? Why is there a bit of a variance relative to your initial expectations? And lastly, if we are indeed going into a bit of a dealer destock mode, does it stand to infer that your incoming orders are going to continue to be soft and, obviously, backlog continues to erode? Thank you.
Andrew Bonfield:
Yeah. So, Mig, a couple of comments. One, which we tried to explain in the last quarter. We -- dealer inventory, we give you one number for 150 independent dealers with a very large number of products underneath that and underpinning it. So it [isn’t] (ph) very complex. Secondly, CI is a slightly different model from RI and E&T. E&T and RI represent about 40% of the increase in dealer inventory. That's really a function of commissioning. Over 70% of those orders are for firm customer orders. They're not sitting on a lot, waiting for somebody to come in and buy them. So there, effectively, it's less -- it's more difficult to predict because it depends on the commissioning time. And obviously, it's also more difficult to predict because of the nature of the business and that -- how they are moved through, for example, a large mining truck, which is disassembled and then reassembled on site and the revenue recognition coming from the dealer as part of that. So it's a very different part of the business. That's why effectively, we almost can't predict that with much certainty. It is much more difficult to predict. With regards to CI, we've always said probably normal range is between three and four months of inventory. At the moment, we're within that range. Dealers will have within excavator inventory, they're slightly at the top end of that range. They want to bring them down. We agree with that. We think that's a good thing. That will reduce, obviously, inventories as we move in. Within, as we've said with BCP and also with earthmoving, particularly in North America, which are the largest markets for those products, we are at the low end of the range, and dealers could actually want to hold a little bit more. So overall, net-net, we do expect a decline in the fourth quarter. It's going to have an impact, possibly. Will there be some impact in the first quarter next year? Probably not. Just to remind you, we normally see a dealer inventory build in the first quarter of the year getting ahead of ready for summer selling season. So it may not be quite as big as normal. But overall, there are some seasonality parts of our business. With regards to the backlog, backlog is completely different. Remember, for CI, backlog is a function of dealer orders. For E&T, it is a function of -- and RI, it's much more of a function of firm customer orders underpinning those. Within -- so as we think about dealers, how much inventory they're holding, as they are able to get availability better for machines, they don't need to order as much in advance. So one of the things we've done, as you know, through our S&OP process is trying to moderate overorders. And we think we're doing a better job of trying to avoid some of the swings which cause production swings as a result of dealer inventory buying patents. Overall, just to remind you, finally, we still expect sales to users to grow in the fourth quarter of this year. We're still expecting end demand to remain strong, and that sets us up into 2024 as we move forward.
Operator:
And we will take our next question from Mike Shlisky with D.A. Davidson. Your line is open.
Mike Shlisky:
Yes, hi, good morning.
Jim Umpleby:
Good morning.
Mike Shlisky:
I wanted to ask about interest rates real quick. Thank you, yes, hello. On interest rates, you kind of touched on it, but maybe a little more color. How have high interest rates or higher interest rates affected the dealership inventory desire and their ability to actually pull and carry inventory? And secondly, maybe, how is interest rates -- have they affected any end user appetite to buy an equipment?
Andrew Bonfield:
Yeah. So first of all, let me say on higher interest rates, probably today, just remind you that even though there are many of us who remember 5% as being the norm of interest rates, I know we've lived it through lower for the last decade. Overall, though, it's really a function. Dealers hold inventory based on what their expectations of future demand are, are comfortable holding current levels of inventory. And as I said, we'd like to hold more for particularly BCP and earthmoving products and hold a little bit less of excavators. But that's a reflection of their expectations of sales to users rather than actually of interest rates. I think they're a little bit less sensitive to that assuming that they can actually sell the equipment on. As far as actually our customers are concerned, where it does impact us within Caterpillar is in Cat Financial. We have seen a slight reduction in the share of new machines we are financing within Cat Financial because we fund in the wholesale market. So we're slightly less competitive against banks. But generally, customers have either been paying cash. They need -- they have to work. So they haven’t been sensitive to interest rates as far as buying machine is concerned. And overall, if you look, and this is one thing we keep a very close focus on, write-offs, past dues and the like and provision levels, we are -- our customers are in very robust shape and do not appear to be being impacted by the higher interest rates yet. So nothing we've seen yet tend to indicate that there's any impact of that today on that business.
Operator:
We will take our next question from Jerry Revich with Goldman Sachs. Your line is open.
Jerry Revich:
Yes, hi, good morning, everyone.
Jim Umpleby:
Hi, Jerry.
Jerry Revich:
Jim -- hi. Jim, I'm wondering if you could just talk about where lead times stand in mining equipment. I know it's a broad range of products, but can you get us a sense for how far visibility you have? And if you're willing to quantify the comments you made earlier about really good pipeline just within the context of relative to the really strong bookings rate we've had year-to-date, any way to quantify the pipeline versus the bookings run rate we've been at? Thank you.
Jim Umpleby:
Yeah. So we have been working hard to bring lead times down, as I mentioned. We do feel good about where we are in that process. And so we had over the last couple of years, some real challenges around availability, but it has gotten better in most areas. Probably the area that's still a challenge is large engines. But in mining we do feel good about where we are in terms of the progress we've made around lead times.
Andrew Bonfield:
Yeah. And as far as the quoting activity, there is a lot of activity, Jerry, going on. As we've said, one of this slight disappoint -- was slightly we would have anticipated more of that coming into order rates. There seem to be some slight delay in actually pushing the button on committing to firm orders as we have seen.
Ryan Fiedler:
Abby, we have time for one more question.
Operator:
Thank you. Today's final question will come from the line of Steve Volkmann with Jefferies. Your line is open.
Steve Volkmann:
Great. Good morning, everybody. Thanks for fitting me in. I just wanted to go back to rental, if I could. And I'm curious, Jim, would you characterize the Cat dealer rental fleets in terms of size? Do they want more equipment? And can you also just comment on what you think the age would be in that Cat rental fleet?
Jim Umpleby:
Yeah. One of the things that's been happening over the last year or so is that there has been some upgrading of that fleet because it had gotten quite old because of some of the supply challenges we've had. And so I'm reluctant to characterize the size of that in total. But again, we are working with our dealers to help them grow rental. We want them to have a successful, profitable rental business. And that means having the right size of rental inventory for the amount of business that they execute. So again, it has been a bit aged. It's improved a bit, but there's still some room there to have newer machines going into the fleet because it had, again, gotten quite aged. And again, our expectation here is as we grow rental that the fleet should grow. But again, we want -- the goal is not to have higher -- bigger size rental fleets. The goal is to have profitable, growing rental businesses by our dealers, which they want to be as efficient as they can with [churns] (ph) and -- but over time, that should result in larger rental fleets.
Jim Umpleby:
All right. Well, thank you. That was our last question. Thanks all for joining us, and we always appreciate your questions. I'd like to just close by thanking our team for another great quarter. As I mentioned earlier, due to our strong results in the third quarter, we now do believe that 2023 will be even better than we had previously anticipated during our last call, and that includes higher full year expectations for adjusted operating profit margin and ME&T free cash flow. And that reflects continuing healthy customer demand and our strong operating performance. And we're continuing to execute our strategy and investor long-term profitable growth. And we look forward to updating you again in January.
Ryan Fiedler:
Great. Thanks, Jim, Andrew and everyone who joined us today. A replay of our call will be available online later this morning. We'll also post a transcript on our Investor Relations website as soon as it's available. You'll also find the third quarter results video with our CFO and an SEC filing with our sales to users data. Click on investors.caterpillar.com then click on Financials to view those materials. If you have any questions, please reach out to Rob or me. The general phone number is (309) 675-4549. Now we'll turn it over to Abby to conclude the call.
Operator:
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's call. We thank you for your participation. You may all disconnect.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the Second Quarter 2023 Caterpillar Earnings Conference Call. Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Ryan Fiedler. Thank you. Please go ahead, sir.
Ryan Fiedler:
Thanks, Abby, and good morning, everyone, and welcome to Caterpillar's second quarter of 2023 earnings call. I'm Ryan Fiedler, Vice President of Investor Relations. Joining me today are Jim Umpleby, Chairman and CEO; Andrew Bonfield, Chief Financial Officer; Kyle Epley, Senior Vice President of the Global Finance Services Division; and Rob Rengel, Senior IR Manager. During our call, we'll be discussing the second quarter earnings release we issued earlier today. You can find our slides, the news release and a webcast recap at investors.caterpillar.com under Events and Presentations. The content of this call is protected by U.S. and international copyright law. Any rebroadcast, retransmission, reproduction or distribution of all or part of this content without Caterpillar's prior written permission is prohibited. Moving to Slide 2. During our call today, we'll make forward-looking statements, which are subject to risks and uncertainties. We'll also make assumptions that could cause our actual results to be different than the information we're sharing with you on this call. Please refer to our recent SEC filings and the forward-looking statements reminder in the news release for details on factors that individually or in aggregate, could cause our actual results to vary materially from our forecast. A detailed discussion of the many factors that we believe may have a material effect on our business on an ongoing basis is contained in our SEC filings. On today's call, we'll also refer to non-GAAP numbers. For a reconciliation of any non-GAAP numbers to the appropriate U.S. GAAP numbers, please see the appendix of the earnings call slides. Now let's turn to Slide 3 and turn the call over to our Chairman and CEO, Jim Umpleby.
James Umpleby:
Thanks, Ryan. Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us. As we close out the first half of 2023, I want to recognize our global team for delivering a very strong second quarter. This included double-digit top-line growth, higher adjusted operating profit margin, record adjusted profit per share and robust ME&T free cash flow. Our results continued to reflect healthy demand across most end markets for our products and services. We remain focused on executing our strategy and continue to invest for long-term profitable growth. In today's call, I'll begin with my perspectives on our performance in the quarter. I'll then provide some insights on our end markets. Lastly, I'll provide an update on our sustainability journey. It was another strong quarter. Sales and revenues increased 22% in the second quarter versus last year. Adjusted operating profit margin improved 21.3%, up sequentially and year-over-year. We also generated $2.6 billion of ME&T free cash flow in the quarter. Our second quarter results were better than we expected for sales and revenues, adjusted operating profit margin, and ME&T free cash flow. In addition, we ended the quarter with a healthy backlog of $30.7 billion. We continue to see improvement in the supply chain, which allowed us to increase production in the quarter. However, areas of challenge remain, particularly for large engines, which impacts energy and transportation and some of our larger machines. While we continue to closely monitor global macroeconomic conditions, we now expect our 2023 results to be better than we had previously anticipated. Turning to Slide 4. In the second quarter of 2023, sales and revenues increased by 22% to $17.3 billion. This was primarily due to higher sales volume and price realization. Sales volumes were higher than we expected, largely due to an increase in dealer inventory relating to energy and transportation, which is supported by customer orders. We saw double-digit increases in sales and revenues in each of our three primary segments. Compared with the second quarter of 2022, overall sales to users increased 16%. For machines, which includes Construction Industries and Resource Industries, sales to users rose by 8%. Energy & Transportation was up 47%. Sales to users in Construction Industries were up 3%. North American sales to users increased and were better than expected as demand remained healthy for non-residential and residential construction. Non-residential continue to benefit from government-related infrastructure and construction projects. Residential sales to users in North America also increased in the quarter. EAME saw lower sales to users due to weaker than expected market conditions in Europe. The Middle East continued to demonstrate strong construction activity. In Latin America and Asia/Pacific, sales to users declined in the quarter. In Resource Industries, sales to users increased 26%. In mining, sales to users increased, supported by commodities remaining above investment thresholds. Within heavy construction and quarry and aggregates, sales to users also increased, supported by growth for infrastructure-related projects. In Energy & Transportation, sales to users increased by 47% in the second quarter. All applications saw higher sales to users in the quarter. Oil and gas sales to users benefited from strong sales of turbines and turbine-related services. We also saw continued strength in sales of reciprocating engines into oil and gas applications, such as Tier 4 dynamic gas blending, gas compression, and repowering active well servicing fleets. Power generation sales to users continued to remain positive due to favorable market conditions, including strong data center growth. Industrial and transportation sales to users also increased. Dealer inventories increased by $600 million in the quarter, led by energy and transportation. We are very comfortable with the total level of dealer inventory, which remains in the typical range. Adjusted operating profit margin increased to 21.3% in the second quarter as we saw improvements, both on a sequential and year-over-year basis. Adjusted operating profit margin was better than we had anticipated, primarily due to better than expected volume growth and lower than expected manufacturing costs, including freight. Moving to Slide 5. We generated strong ME&T free cash flow of $2.6 billion in the second quarter. We returned $2 billion to shareholders, which included about $1.4 billion in repurchase stock and $600 million in dividends. In June, we announced an 8% dividend increase. Since May of 2019, when we introduced our current capital allocation strategy, we have increased the quarterly dividend per share by 51%. We remain proud of our dividend aristocrat status and continue to expect to return to substantially all ME&T free cash flow to shareholders over time through dividends and share repurchases. Now on Slide 6, I'll describe our expectations moving forward. While we continue to closely monitor global macroeconomic conditions, our second quarter results lead us to expect that full-year 2023 will now be even better than we described during our last earnings call. We now expect adjusted operating profit margins to be close to the top of the targeted range relative to the corresponding expected level of sales. This positive operating performance increases our expectations for ME&T free cash flow, which we now expect to be around the top of the $4 billion to $8 billion range for the full-year. Our current expectations for adjusted operating profit margin and ME&T free cash flow reflect continuing healthy customer demand and our strong operating performance. Now I'll discuss our outlook for key end markets this year, starting with the Construction Industries. In North America, overall, we continue to see positive momentum in 2023. We expect continued growth in non-residential construction in North America due to the positive impact of government-related infrastructure investments and a healthy pipeline of construction projects. Although residential construction growth has moderated, we expect the rest of 2023 to remain healthy. In Asia/Pacific, excluding China, we expect growth in Construction Industries due to public infrastructure spending in support of commodity prices. We mentioned during our last earnings call that we expected sales in China to be below the typical 5% to 10% of our enterprise sales. We now expect further weakness as the 10-tons and above excavator industry has declined even more than we anticipated. In EAME, we anticipate that it will be flat to slightly up overall, with the Middle East exhibiting strong construction demand, whereas Europe is expected to be down. Construction activity in Latin America is expected to be down in 2023 versus a strong 2022 performance. In Resource Industries, we expect healthy mining demand to continue as commodity prices remain above investment thresholds. As I've mentioned previously, customers remain capital disciplined, which supports a gradual increase in mining over time. We anticipate production and utilization levels will remain elevated. We also expect the age of the fleet and the low level of park trucks to support future demand for our equipment and services. We continue to believe the energy transition will support increased commodity demand, expanding our total addressable market and providing further opportunities for profitable growth. In heavy construction and quarry and aggregates, we anticipate continued growth due to major infrastructure in non-residential construction projects. Now I'll discuss Energy & Transportation. For Cat reciprocating engines and oil and gas applications, although customers remain disciplined, we are encouraged by continuing strong demand for gas compression. Cat reciprocating engine demand for power generation is expected to remain healthy, including strong data center growth. New equipment orders and services for solar turbines in both oil and gas and power generation remain robust. Industrial continues to be healthy. In transportation, we anticipate strength in high speed marine as customers continued to upgrade aging fleets. Moving to Slide 7. We continued to advance our sustainability journey. Since our last quarterly earnings call, we published our 2022 sustainability report, which disclosed our estimated Scope 3 greenhouse gas emissions for the first time. We also published our first ever task force on climate-related financial disclosures report. We're helping our customers achieve their climate-related goals by continuing to invest in new products, technologies and services that facilitate fuel flexibility, increased operational efficiency and reduced emissions. For example, a customer in Chile is realizing fuel savings and lower emissions after purchasing our Cat D6 XE, the world's first high drive diesel-electric drive dozer. The customer reported a 30% reduction in fuel consumption versus the previous model working in the same operation. This example reinforces our ongoing sustainability leadership in how we help our customers build a better, more sustainable world. With that, I'll turn the call over to Andrew.
Andrew Bonfield:
Thank you, Jim, and good morning, everyone. I'll begin with commentary on the second quarter results, including the performance of our business segments. Then I'll discuss the balance sheet and free cash flow before concluding with our assumptions for the remainder of the year, including color on the third quarter. Beginning on Slide 8. Our team delivered a very strong second quarter as overall results exceeded our expectations on strong operating performance. We saw a healthy top-line growth, improved operating margins and robust ME&T free cash flow. For the year, we now expect our adjusted operating profit margin to be close to the top of the targeted range at our anticipated sales level. We also expect ME&T free cash flow to be around the top of our $4 billion to $8 billion target range. To summarize the results, sales and revenues increased by 22% or $3.1 billion to $17.3 billion. Sales increase versus the prior year was due to higher sales volume and price realization. Operating profit increased by 88% or $1.7 billion to $3.7 billion. The adjusted operating profit margin was 21.3%, an increase of 750 basis points versus the prior year. Adjusted profit per share increased by 75% to $5.55 in the second quarter compared to $3.18 last year. Profit per share was $5.67 in the second quarter of this year. This included a discrete deferred tax benefit of $0.17 per share, while restructuring costs were $0.05 per share, flat compared to the prior year. We continue to expect restructuring expenses of about $700 million for the full-year. Other income of $127 million in the quarter was lower than the second quarter of 2022 by $133 million. The year-over-year decline was primarily driven by an unfavorable currency impact related to ME&T balance sheet translation and a recurring increase in quarterly pension expense of approximately $80 million, which we initially spoke to you about in January. Higher investment and interest income acted as a partial offset. The provision for income tax in the second quarter, excluding discrete items reflected a global annual effective tax rate of approximately 23%, which remains our expectation for the full-year. Moving on to Slide 9. The 22% increase in the top-line versus the prior year was due to higher sales volume and price. Volume improved as sales to users increased by 16% and from changes in dealer inventory. Sales for the quarter were higher than we had anticipated, mostly due to volume. The volume outperformance reflected a dealer inventory increase, which was primarily due to our stronger than expected shipments in Energy & Transportation, particularly in power generation, which is in line with strong data center demand. Price realization was in line with our expectations for the quarter. As I mentioned, sales to users grew by 16% in the quarter. As Jim has discussed, demand remains healthy across most end markets for all our products and services and is supported by a healthy order backlog. Moving to Slide 10. Second quarter operating profit increased by 88%, while adjusted operating profit increased by 87% to $3.7 billion. Year-over-year favorable price realization and higher sales volume were partially offset by higher manufacturing costs, which largely reflected higher material costs. An increase in SG&A and R&D expenses included higher strategic investment spend. The adjusted operating profit margin of 21.3% was better than we had anticipated. Volume exceeded our expectations, which supported the margin outperformance. In addition, manufacturing costs increased less than we expected due to lower freight costs and a lower than anticipated impact from cost absorption. SG&A and R&D expenses were about in line. Moving to Slide 11. I'll review the segment performance. Construction Industries sales increased by 19% in the second quarter to $7.2 billion due to price realization and higher sales volume. By region, sales in North America rose by 32% due to higher sales volume and price realization. Stronger demand and supply chain improvements enabled stronger than expected shipments in North America. This supported stronger sales of equipment to end users and some delivery stocking in what remains our most constrained region. Sales in Latin America decreased by 11%, primarily due to lower sales volume, partially offset by price realization. In EAME, sales increased by 20%, primarily the result of higher sales volume and price realization. Sales in Asia/Pacific were about flat. Second quarter profit for Construction Industries increased by 82% versus the prior year to $1.8 billion. The increase was mainly due to price realization and higher sales volume. The segment's operating margin of 25.2% was an increase of 880 basis points versus last year. Margin exceeded our expectations, largely due to better than expected volume of freight costs, which were lower than we had anticipated. Turning to Slide 12. Resource Industries sales grew by 20% in the second quarter to $3.6 billion. The increase was primarily due to price realization and higher sales volume. Volume increased due to higher sales of equipment to end users. Although aftermarket sales volumes were lower, dealer sales to customers for services remained positive. Second quarter profit for Resource Industries increased by 108% versus the prior year to $740 million, mainly due to price realization and higher sales volume. This was partially offset by unfavorable manufacturing costs, largely material costs. The segment's operating margin of 20.8% was an increase of 880 basis points versus last year. The segment's margin was better than we had expected, primarily due to favorable volume, timing of SG&A and R&D spend and lower than anticipated freight costs. Now on Slide 13. Energy & Transportation sales increased by 27% in the second quarter to $7.2 billion. Sales were up double-digits across all applications. Oil and gas sales increased by 43%, power generation sales increased by 39%, industrial sales rose by 18% and transportation sales increased by 12%. Second quarter profit for Energy & Transportation increased by 93% versus the prior year to $1.3 billion. The increase was mainly due to higher sales volume and price realization, partially offset by unfavorable manufacturing costs and higher SG&A and R&D expenses. The segment's operating margin of 17.6% was an increase of 600 basis points versus last year. The margin was generally in line with our expectations. Moving to Slide 14. Financial Products revenue increased by 16% to $923 million, primarily due to higher average financing rates across all regions. Segment profit increased by 11% to $240 million. The increase was mainly due to a lower provision for credit losses at Cat Financial, partially offset by an increase in SG&A expense. Business activity remains strong, and our portfolio continues to perform well. Past dues in the quarter were 2.15%, a 4 basis points improvement compared to the second quarter of 2022. This is the lowest second quarter past dues percentage since 2007. Retail new business volume performed well, increasing versus the prior year and the first quarter. In addition, we continue to see strong demand for used equipment. Now on Slide 15. Our ME&T free cash flow generation was again robust as we generated $2.6 billion in the quarter. This was an increase of $1.5 billion compared to the prior year. With approximately $4 billion generated in the first half, we now expect ME&T free cash flow to be around the top of our $4 billion to $8 billion target range for the full-year. CapEx in the second quarter was about $300 million, and we still expect to spend around $1.5 billion for the full-year. As Jim mentioned, we returned about $2 billion through share repurchases and dividends in the second quarter. Our balance sheet remains strong. We have ample liquidity with an enterprise cash balance of $7.4 billion, and we also hold an additional $2 billion in slightly longer-dated liquid marketable securities to improve yields on that cash. Now turning to Slide 16. I will share some high level assumptions for the second half and the third quarter. In the second half of 2023, we expect higher total sales and revenues as compared to the second half of last year. We anticipate both sales to users and price realization will be positive in the second half. Keep in mind that on a comparative basis, we start to lap the stronger price we saw from the third quarter onwards last year. Caterpillar sales will be impacted by changes in dealer inventories as dealers increased their inventories in the second half of last year, which is not typical, versus our expectation of a more typical reduction in the second half of 2023. I want to spend just a few moments talking about dealer inventories. Dealers are independent businesses, and they make their own decisions around the level of inventory they hold. We obviously work closely with them because this impacts our production levels. As Jim mentioned, we are very comfortable with the levels of inventory that dealers are holding. We talk about dealer inventory in aggregate. This is difficult to predict with certainty as it arises from three different business segments, over 150 dealers and hundreds of different products. In Resource Industries and Energy & Transportation, dealer inventory is mainly a function of the commissioning pipeline. Keep in mind that over 70% of dealer inventory in these segments is backed by firm customer orders. For Construction Industries, dealer inventory is principally a function of end user demand and availability from the factory. In Construction Industries, dealers typically increase inventories during the first half of the year. Around 60% of the $2 billion increase during the first half of this year was from products in this segment. The remaining 40% is in Resource Industries and Energy & Transportation. For Resource Industries and Energy Transportation, we currently anticipate a slight reduction in levels in the second-half, but this is dependent on commissioning. In Construction Industries, dealers are currently holding around the midpoint of the typical three to four months range. Some dealers would like to increase inventories of certain products, such as BCP and earth moving due to strong customer demand. Conversely, some dealers would like to reduce the levels of excavated inventory because of high availability. In addition, we are scheduled to replace third-party engines with Cat engines and certain products, which will impact production in these products during the second half. Our current planning assumption for the Construction Industries is that dealers will reduce their overall levels in inventory in the second half of 2023 with a principal focus on excavators. Overall, at the enterprise level, we currently expect dealer inventory should be slightly higher at the end of 2023 versus last year. Moving on. On this slide, we provide our adjusted profit margins target charge to assist you in your modeling process. Based on our current planning assumptions, we anticipate full-year adjusted operating profit margin to be close to the top of that 300 basis points target range at our expected sales level. Your expectation for total enterprise sales this year will inform you where on the curve margins should finish for the year. Specific to the second half, we anticipate adjusted operating profit margins in the remaining quarters of the year will be above the year ago levels, although they will be lower than the levels we saw in the first two quarters of this year. As compared to the first half, we anticipate a margin headwind from cost absorption in the second half. We do not expect to build our inventory as we did in the first half and anticipate that there will be some inventory reduction if we continue to see sustained supply chain improvement. In addition, spend related to the strategic growth initiatives should continue to ramp. Price realization should remain positive that the magnitude of the favorability versus the prior year is expected to be lower in the second half as we lap the more favorable pricing trends from last year. Therefore, the increases in margins that we have occurred -- that have occurred from price outpacing manufacturing cost inflation should moderate in the second half of this year. Now let's move on to our assumptions that are specific to the third quarter. We anticipate third quarter sales to be higher than the third quarter of 2022, but to exhibit the typical sequential decline when compared to the second quarter of 2023. In Construction Industries, as is our normal seasonal end, we expect lower sales compared to the second quarter. In Resource Industries, which can be lumpy, we anticipate slightly lower sales compared to the second quarter. We expect sales in Energy & Transportation will increase slightly compared to the second quarter. Specific to third quarter margins versus the prior year, adjusted operating profit margins at the enterprise level and segment margins should be stronger. However, we do expect lower enterprise adjusted operating profit margins in the third quarter compared to the second quarter of this year on lower volume and impacts from cost absorption. We also anticipate investment spend will ramp across our primary segments as we continue to accelerate our strategic investments in area like autonomy, alternative fuels, connectivity and digital and electrification. At the segment level, for Construction Industries, we expect a lower margin compared to the second quarter as is typical. This is largely due to lower quarter-on-quarter volume, increased investment in strategic initiatives and slightly higher manufacturing costs, including a headwind from cost absorption. Favorable price realization will act as a partial offset. We also anticipate lower third quarter margins in Resource Industries compared to the second quarter, primarily due to lower volume quarter-on-quarter. Conversely, we expect third quarter margins in Energy & Transportation will be slightly higher compared to the second quarter on higher volume and stronger price realization, partially offset by higher manufacturing costs and spend relating to strategic initiatives. Now turning to Slide 13, let me summarize. We generated strong adjusted operating profit margin with a 750 basis point increase to 21.3%. We now expect to be close to the top of the targeted range for adjusted operating margin -- profit margin for the full-year based on our expected sales levels. ME&T free cash flow generation was robust at $2.6 billion in the quarter. We returned $2 billion to shareholders through share repurchases and dividends. We now expect ME&T free cash flow to be around the top of our $4 billion to $8 billion range for the full-year. Lastly, we continue to execute our strategy for long-term profitable growth. And with that, we'll now take your questions.
Operator:
Thank you. [Operator Instructions] And your first question comes from the line of Jamie Cook with Credit Suisse. Your line is open.
Jamie Cook:
Hi, good morning. And congrats on a nice quarter.
James Umpleby:
Thanks, Jamie.
Andrew Bonfield:
Thanks, Jamie. Good morning.
Jamie Cook:
You decided not to retire on part, because [indiscernible] results coming. That was a compliment. My real question is the first one, based on your performance in the first half of the year and what you're saying for sales and margins for 2023, it looks to me like you can achieve the high end of your margin targets around the 21% on lower sales versus the $72 billion target. So do we need to sort of revisit our targets again and adjust the margins on lower sales? I'm just trying to understand what's going on structurally here? Or is this just all price? I think it's really important for your story. And then just my second follow-up. On 2024, I know you don't want to guide, but you're sitting here with record backlog. I guess you're saying dealer inventories are going to be slightly higher. Supply chain is going to ease. What's the probability that you think you could potentially grow your EPS in 2024? Or is there anything out there that's giving you caution? And if so, are pulling any levers? Thanks.
James Umpleby:
Well, thanks, Jamie. And as we mentioned in our prepared remarks, we expect our operating profit margin -- adjusted operating profit margin to be close to the top of the targeted range for the year. We will look at our ranges at the end of the year and make an assessment as to what makes sense when moving forward from there. As we look forward to next year, and you mentioned some of the dynamics that are going on, we're closely monitoring economic conditions, but we do feel good about the business. But as I'm sure you know, we're not going to make a '24 prediction at this point.
Operator:
And we will take our next question from the line of David Raso with Evercore ISI. Your line is open.
David Raso:
Hi, thank you for the time. I'm just curious, the backlog was surprising to me, how strong it was. And I'm just curious, any thoughts around the backlog you can help us with in your framework in the guide for this year on how it moves from here sequentially? Anything unique in the backlog about what percent of it ships in the next 12 months versus normal? Just trying to get a handle on that. And if you could give any early color around pricing for '24 with the base order management program opening up this month. Just trying to get a sense of how you're thinking about pricing for '24? Thank you.
James Umpleby:
Well, thank you, David. And certainly, our backlog does remain healthy. We didn't have a dramatic change quarter-to-quarter. It was up modestly. And of course, backlog includes, of course, everything for Energy & Transportation, Resource Industries and also CI. For the Energy & Transportation and RI projects that are in that backlog, those are typically tied to firm customer orders. Solar has cancellation charge schedules. And so again, we feel good about the quality of the backlog. In terms of price for next year, as is always the case, we'll assess market conditions. We look at our input costs, and we'll make a call on that later in the year, but it's a bit too early to really predict that.
Operator:
And your next question comes from the line of Michael Feniger with Bank of America. Your line is open.
Michael Feniger:
Great. Thanks for taking my questions. Just a broad question on inventories. When investors hear inventories are coming out, there's always concern on the impact to the margins. There were big destocking periods in the second half in years like 2019, 2015, 2012. What makes this second half of the year different from those other destocking periods? Is it less broad-based? Is it the fact that retail sales accelerated that gives you confidence we don't have that type of destocking effect that we've had in prior cycles?
Andrew Bonfield:
Yes. So at that time, Michael, and thanks for the question, obviously, we were in a situation where actually demand was reducing when we did see those inventory reductions from dealers. And what that did mean, obviously, was the production levels were declining much more rapidly, which impacted overall, both leverage as well as absorption. As we look it out over this period of time, we are still seeing healthy demand as we've indicated. We actually still expect positive sales to users in the second half of the year. What that does mean is when we are making modest inventory adjustments and dealers are making modest inventory adjustments, we are able to absorb that a little bit better than we have done historically. The whole point about all of this is, just to remind everybody, we're around the midpoint of the range. We are actually being proactive with our dealers, particularly around things like excavators, where there's a little bit better availability to actually help them reduce inventory at a time when actually demand remains very strong out there in the market.
Michael Feniger:
Andrew, just to put a fine point on it, obviously, dealer retail sales accelerated in the quarter. To inform your view that dealer inventories for the rest of the year, your comfortability around it, do you expect those retail sales to accelerate? Is that your base case? Is it to moderate slightly and remain positive? Just directionally to give us comfortability with the second half, how are your retail sales outlook in the second half informing your view on the inventory levels out there? Thank you.
Andrew Bonfield:
Yes. So if you actually take the view that we expect retail sales to continue to grow in the second half, we're not giving a prediction as to whether they'll accelerate or decelerate. That's all we're going to be saying about that. But just a point is actually, with a deal inventory reduction and with actually increased retail sales, the levels of inventory that actually dealers hold on a month basis actually would decline by the end of the year. That's how the math works.
Michael Feniger:
Thanks.
Operator:
And your next question comes from the line of Rob Wertheimer with Melius Research. Your line is open.
Robert Wertheimer:
Hi, so my question is actually on Cat's own inventories. And I know you've got rising sales to deal with, at least so far. But I'm curious, are you still holding safety stock on raw materials and components? Is any of the finished goods waiting on completion? Or is it all just rising sales flowing through? And then just maybe how much cash could come out of inventory if inventories normalize slightly? Thanks.
James Umpleby:
Good morning, Rob. Thanks for your question. So certainly, we are still seeing supply chain challenges. As I mentioned earlier, there is an overall improvement but it only takes one part to prevent us from shipping a machine or engine. And so we're still dealing with supply chain constraints around large engines, which impact both E&T and machines. And we also have some issues with things like semiconductors for displays that are impacting other machines as well. So to answer your question, our inventory, quite frankly, is a bit higher than I would like. And I do expect over time, as supply chain conditions improve, that we will be able to be more lean and improve our turns. So the good news is that even with our factory is not running as lean as we would like and having a bit more inventory internally than we would like, we still of course, produced very strong cash in the quarter. So I won't quantify how much cash could come out of inventory. But certainly, if in fact, we were -- when we get back to pre-pandemic levels in the supply chain, we should be able to free up some additional cash.
Robert Wertheimer:
Since the answer is so well, you look at your margins, it looks like your crushing operations. And you look at inventory and it's like, well, okay, I understand you've got some pockets where delivery is holded up, any view on the totality of how Cat's managing production flow, factory flow, et cetera? You look at safety, you look at other indicators, you do. I mean what's your assessment? Is this the best you've done? Is there -- are there other problem spots? Just an overall look at how Cat is managing, et cetera? And I'll stop there. Thank you.
James Umpleby:
Thanks, Rob. And certainly, I'm very proud of the team and the strong performance that we're producing. We -- as you know, we put out a new strategy in 2017, and we asked people to have faith in our ability to produce higher operating profit margins and higher and more consistent free cash flow, and I'm really pleased that the team has been able to achieve that. We always have areas that we can do better. I mean, I talked about the fact that we're not as lean as I would like us to be in our manufacturing operations. We're doing a good job growing services, but I always want to grow it faster. So there's always things we can do a better job. But again, just I'm very proud of the team and the fact that we have been able to meet the targets that we set out to our investors a few years ago.
Robert Wertheimer:
Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Tami Zakaria with JPMorgan. Your line is open.
Tami Zakaria:
Hi, good morning. Thank you so much. So going back to backlog, it went up by $300 million sequentially. What exactly drove that? Was it purely driven by pricing? Or did you see a net increase in order volumes in the quarter as well?
Andrew Bonfield:
Yes. So there are a couple of factors. Obviously, price does have some impact overall. And that was probably the major impact on the increase for the quarter. Obviously, volumes fluctuate by quarter by quarter and depend on availability. But overall, we're pleased that the backlog is holding at healthy levels.
James Umpleby:
And maybe just one additional comment there. Honestly, some customers are waiting longer for products than I would like. And so backlog is a function, of course, of demand, but it's also a function of our ability to ship. So as in fact, supply chain conditions ease and we're able to ship more quickly, customers shouldn't have to wait as long for certain products, which should bring our backlog down. So again, a declining backlog wouldn't be a bad thing if, in fact, it's the result of our ability to shorten lead times and improve availability.
Tami Zakaria:
Got it. If I can ask a quick follow-up, for the back half, is it fair to assume price realization down to let's say, mid- to high single-digit growth and do you have any incremental pricing planned for later this year?
Andrew Bonfield:
Yes. So obviously, we've seen very strong price as you've seen through the year. Obviously, we expect that to reduce as we go through the second half. If you take a function of lapping price increases, I think you'd get closer to a -- is a single-digit number. Obviously, we don't estimate that by quarter. But yes, the price range will come down as we move through the remainder of the year. Can I just remind everybody please? Can we just ask one question so that we can get through everybody on the queue just out of courtesy for your other analysts out there, please?
Operator:
Thank you. And we will move to our next question from Nicole DeBlase with Deutsche Bank. Your line is open.
Nicole DeBlase:
Yes, thanks. Good morning guys.
James Umpleby:
Good morning, Nicole.
Andrew Bonfield:
Hi, Nicole.
Nicole DeBlase:
Just on the retail sales trends this quarter, there was a deterioration across like both of the machines businesses in EAME. Can you just talk about what you're seeing from that region? I think there have been some indications of a little bit of slowing in Europe. So would love to hear what's capturing on the ground. Thanks.
James Umpleby:
Yes, we have seen a bit of slowing in Europe, as I mentioned, but Middle East is quite strong. So it's a mixed bag there. So we're seeing a lot of strong construction activity in the Middle East, a lot of nonresidential construction projects going on but we have -- we are seeing a bit of weakness in Europe around construction.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions]. And we will move to our next question from the line of Steve Volkmann with Jefferies. Your line is open.
James Umpleby:
Hi, Steve.
Stephen Volkmann:
Good morning guys. Thanks for taking the question. I wanted to just ask a little bit about productivity because I guess I'm hearing you say that supply chain is improving, but there's still issues. Are there still kind of productivity headwinds or penalties that you're paying in the factories because the supply chain is not yet as smooth as we'd like it to be? And obviously, I'm trying to think about whether there's some margin opportunity when supply chains -- when and if supply chains are sort of normal again.
James Umpleby:
Yes. As I mentioned, because we do have some supply chain constraints, overall, the situation has improved, there's no question. But it's like we've gone to six pages of shortages for certain machine. It's down to one page, that's an improvement, but you still have some shortages that you have to deal with and has not allowed us to operate our factories as lean as we have in the past and as lean as I would like them. So again, I do expect that as supply chain conditions ease in the future, we should be able to get back to running our factories with more just-in-time manufacturing, leaner, which should help us reduce -- increase inventory turns and reduce the amount of absolute inventory we hold based on a current level of sales. So an opportunity to answer your question.
Stephen Volkmann:
Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Tim Thein with Citigroup. Your line is open.
Timothy Thein:
Thanks. Good morning. Just a question on parts -- yes, just on parts. I guess we can broaden it to Cat across the board. But specifically, I was interested in the comment on RI for down volumes. Is that just maybe a function of kind of prioritizing whole goods just in light of the constrained availability? Or is that -- I would imagine there's notch by way of destocking going on with the dealer. So maybe just any more comments you have just on that comment on parts volumes in RI? Thanks.
James Umpleby:
Maybe just to start with overall. So certainly, the services sales were up year-over-year, and we have seen fluctuations in dealer buying patterns, which impacts volumes. Services, dealer sales to customers were up in the quarter, and availability has improved. So our ability to ship parts to our dealers has improved, and that has had an impact on it as well. So again, not concerned about it, but it really is just a function of as our availability improves, dealers oftentimes conclude they're able to held a bit less inventory, which will have an impact.
Operator:
And your next question comes from the line of Chad Dillard with Bernstein. Your line is open.
James Umpleby:
Hi, Chad.
Chad Dillard:
Hi, good morning guys. How are you? So I wanted to focus mainly on Construction Industries. And I just wanted to get a better sense of -- for your orders that came in the quarter, can you just give us a rough breakdown between retail versus stock? And then look, as you're thinking about like inventory shift, you do that really helpful stat about 70% is retail for E&T and Resource Industries. Could you do the same for Construction Industries?
Andrew Bonfield:
Yes. So when we talk about it -- I mean, obviously, we don't break down what dealers take the orders for between retail and stock in CI. A significant proportion of the purchases they make are based on customer orders, particularly if there is a degree of customization that is needed. And there will be somewhere once the machine has actually been delivered to the dealer, they will have a number of things or attachments put on, which will impact the timing of commissioning. So there's a little bit of commissioning within CI, but obviously, it's nowhere near around the 70% plus that we talked about for E&T and for Resource Industries. What we are seeing, as I indicated, is there are patches, particularly in BCP and earthmoving, where dealers are constrained and actually would like to have more inventory available to them, and that impacts their orders. So obviously, orders in those segments are -- those divisions are much stronger. Obviously, with excavators, and excavator as an impact of what's happening, particularly, say, for example, in China, where obviously demand is reduced, that means we have more availability. And dealers would like to decrease their inventory of excavators accordingly. So it's a bit of a mixed pattern. But as I say, we only have 3.5 months of inventory on hand, and that percentage will actually decrease around by the time we get to the year end.
Chad Dillard:
Great, thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Steven Fisher with UBS. Your line is open.
Steven Fisher:
Thanks. Good morning. Wonder if you could talk a little bit more about the drivers of the broad oil and gas segment. Where do you think we are in the kind of the rebuild cycle of equipment there? To what extent do you need rig counts to rebound to keep the current level of revenue sustained? Or are there really other drivers with this segment to be aware of? It was obviously a very strong acceleration of sales to users. So just kind of curious for color on the drivers and the longevity of the strong trend in the segment.
James Umpleby:
Well, Steven, we're certainly not dependent upon rig counts to drive oil and gas. It's just one element of the -- one of the applications that we sell into. So as I mentioned earlier, we are encouraged by the strong demand that continues for gas compression for Cat-branded reset engines. That's quite positive. We have seen a bit of slowing in well servicing, but that's expected to increase again based on most analyst views over the coming months. Solar continues to have quite robust sales into a number of oil and gas applications, including gas compression, but also offshore platforms and international business as well. So again, at this point, oil and gas certainly looks strong. And in some areas, we're quite bullish on what we see moving forward.
Steven Fisher:
Thank you very much.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Kristen Owen with Oppenheimer. Your line is open.
Kristen Owen:
Great, thank you for taking the questions. I wanted to come back to a question on pricing. First, for the second quarter, if you can help us understand what's supporting the strength there. I think that was a little bit ahead of where we were expecting price to be. Is that a function of mix or just the better than expected end user demand? And then as we think about that stepping down through the back half of the year, to get to that single-digit number that you outlined on a previous answer, just how we should think about the cadence of that stepping down throughout the remainder of the year? Thank you.
James Umpleby:
Yes. So price realization was about in line with our expectations. And certainly, as we look at price, the price we realize is a function of a whole variety of things. You mentioned mix, but a lot of it has to do with, of course, the competitive situation that we and our dealers are facing in a particular market. So we saw significant increases in price in the second half of last year, and that will lap in the second half of 2023, but we still expect to benefit from positive price in the second half, but it will moderate and certainly understandable based on that -- again, those strong price increases in the second half of last year. And as always, we'll continue to monitor the global price environment, and we'll determine if actions need to be taken.
Andrew Bonfield:
And just, Kristen, just to add on. Just if you recall last year, price continues to improve from the third to the fourth quarter. So you probably should see the reverse of that this year, which will -- price will be slightly stronger than the third versus the fourth.
Kristen Owen:
Thank you.
Operator:
And your next question comes from the line of Mig Dobre with Baird. Your line is open.
Mircea Dobre:
Thank you. Good morning.
James Umpleby:
Good morning, Mig.
Mircea Dobre:
Good morning. Just a quick clarification based on the way you're kind of thinking about the dealer inventory destock in the back half. In order to make that happen, do you have to adjust production sequentially in any way? Maybe you can comment on that? And then related to this, your manufacturing cost, the $283 million drag, should we think that this drag lessens in the back half? And could that actually be a positive benefit as we think about the fourth quarter on a year-over-year basis? Thanks.
Andrew Bonfield:
Yes. So first of all on this, obviously, production level, as we've indicated from beginning of the year, last year, we did see, if you remember, production was rising throughout the whole year as we went through the year as the supply chain started to improve. That, particularly in construction, will be slightly different this year. And that obviously, we will see some headwind as we do see some dealer inventory reduction in the second half. We are already making production adjustments as we move on. That's part of the business. We do that day in, day out. And those will continue, and there will be some impact in the second half of the year. But overall, we still expect positive revenues through that period of time for Caterpillar as a whole. Talking about manufacturing costs. Yes, manufacturing costs will decrease, but obviously price benefit will reduce as well. So the net of the two will mean we won't see quite that margin improvement that we did see as we went through the last four quarters. So yes, we still expect price to offset manufacturing costs in the second half of the year, but they won't that will reduce so will price as well. So no real benefits to margins as we get through the remainder of the year.
James Umpleby:
Just to expand upon the answer, we talked earlier about the fact that there is enough excavator dealer inventory out there. So we certainly would expect to produce less excavators, as an example, in the next six months. And we also mentioned the fact that we're going to have some changeover regions in some of our BCP products where we're switching to Cat engines, which is certainly the right thing to do for the long time and growing services. But that will have an impact on production as well during the last six months of the year. But keep in mind that we have said, we now expect to be close to the top of our targeted range for adjusted operating profit margin. So that all goes into the mix.
Mircea Dobre:
Thank you.
Operator:
And your next question comes from the line of Mike Shlisky with D.A. Davidson. Your line is open.
Michael Shlisky:
Yes, hi. Good morning and thanks for taking my questions.
James Umpleby:
Good morning.
Michael Shlisky:
Good morning. So historically, prior to the pandemic, your operating margins in the fourth quarter were usually a bit of a step downward compared to the third quarter. That's mainly construction and resource. I think it got a little off better than the last couple of years, obviously, for a few reasons. But I was wondering if you could tell us whether you will be back to that sort of more normal seasonality on margins here in the second half of this year or if operationally, these have kind of changed permanently here?
Andrew Bonfield:
No. I think that definitely, we would expect a step down in margins in the fourth quarter in both, particularly in Construction as is the normal seasonal trend. It does tend to be the lower production period. Also we may, again just as Jim mentioned, we will have the impact of the BCP changeover, which will impact us slightly more stronger in the fourth quarter. So there will be some impact as we move through the first quarter.
Michael Shlisky:
Thank you.
Operator:
And your next question comes from the line of Matt Elkott with TD Cowen. Your line is open.
Matthew Elkott:
Good morning. Kind of a higher-level question on nonresidential construction. Good to see the tailwinds of the infrastructure packages continuing to materialize. But can you help us gauge what innings you think we're in with these tailwinds? Can we expect like an acceleration next year or just steady? Thank you.
James Umpleby:
Yes. Thanks for your question. I'm going to try to avoid a baseball analogy here. But as I mentioned earlier, we are starting to see some benefit of the numerous infrastructure bills that have passed. Some of that is coming from the states. But as you can imagine, permitting takes time for a number of projects. And it's, as you can imagine, very difficult to judge exactly how long that permitting process will take and how this will play out. But I do expect it to last for some time. Difficult for me to estimate, all right, what will the acceleration be in a six-month or one-year period. But again, it's a very positive thing for us, and it's a positive thing for our customers that we have these projects coming down the pipe.
Matthew Elkott:
Thank you very much.
James Umpleby:
Thank you.
Operator:
And your next question comes from the line of Stanley Elliott with Stifel. Your line is open.
Stanley Elliott:
Hey, good morning. Thank you all for fitting me in. A quick question on the cash flow. You guys have pretty been consistent about discussing returning all the free cash. You have basically, let's call it, another kind of $4 billion, $5 billion at run rate in the back half of the year. Should we think of all of that going back to share repurchases or using for other investments? Any thoughts there would be great. Thanks.
James Umpleby:
Yes. As we said, our intent is to return substantially all of our ME&T free cash flow to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases over time. We do maintain a healthy balance sheet for a whole variety of reasons. When we went into COVID in 2020, I was very pleased that we had a strong balance sheet. We also have increased our dividend since we introduced our new capital allocation strategy. In May of 2019, we've increased the dividend per share by 51% since that period of time. So again, we're proud of our Aristocrat status. So certainly wouldn't be surprised. It's a Board decision, but if we continue to increase our dividend and continue to share repurchases as well.
Operator:
And today's final question comes from the line of Jerry Revich with Goldman Sachs. Your line is open.
Jerry Revich:
Yes, hi. Good morning everyone.
James Umpleby:
Good morning, Jerry.
Jerry Revich:
Jim, I'm wondering if you could just expand on your comments in mining. Your biggest competitor in trucks is posting 250% book-to-bill. I'm wondering if you're seeing that level of bookings activity? And are we finally at a point where we're hitting the sweet spot of that replacement cycle for what we delivered a decade ago? Or are there some idiosyncratic ebbs and flows in the data points? Thanks.
James Umpleby:
Well, thank you. Thank you, Jerry. And certainly, as we've talked about many times, mining is kind of a lumpy business quarter-to-quarter. And our mining customers are remaining capital disciplined. What we've talked about for some time is what we expect is a gradual increase over time in our mining business, and that's certainly the way it's played out. Certainly, at the moment, large truck sales, our activity, that activity is robust. That quotation activity is quite robust, and some other products, not quite as strong. But again, just based on what we see required in terms of commodity production increases to support the energy transition. We feel very good about that business. We do believe quite strongly that we have the best autonomous mining solutions. We now have about 600 autonomous trucks in operation around the world. And one of the great things that's happened is that we've been able to reduce the cost such that now, a smaller mine can make a capital investment to put autonomy. And so when we're talking to miners now, autonomy is almost always part of that discussion. We're down to about 12 to 14 trucks. But mine is about 12 to 14 trucks. It could pencil to put autonomy, and we've actually seen mines adapt autonomy with that low number of trucks. So we're quite bullish about what we see coming in again, and we're leveraging that autonomous solutions, whether it's in iron ore, copper, gold, oilsands, a whole variety of applications. But again, we're certainly long-term bullish about that business. All right. Well -- so if I can, I'd like to thank you all for joining us, and we certainly appreciate your questions. Again, I want to thank our global team one more time for just an outstanding quarter. And to reiterate, based on our strong operating performance due to the strong results that we achieved in the second quarter, we now believe that 2023 will be even better than we had previously anticipated during our last earnings call. That includes higher full-year expectations for adjusted operating profit margin, ME&T free cash flow, which again, reflects that continuing healthy customer demand and our performance. Please stay safe. Thanks for your interest.
Ryan Fiedler:
Thanks, Jim, Andrew and everyone who joined us today. A replay of our call will be available online later this morning. We'll also post a transcript on our Investor Relations website as soon as it's available. You'll also find the second quarter results video with our CFO and an SEC filing with our sales to users data. Click on investors.caterpillar.com and then click on Financials to view those materials. If you have any questions, please reach out to Rob or me. Investor Relations general phone number is 309-675-4549. Now let's turn it back over to Abby to conclude our call.
Operator:
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes our call today and thank you for joining. You may all disconnect.
Operator:
Welcome to the First Quarter 2023 Caterpillar Earnings Conference Call. Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Ryan Fiedler. Thank you. Please go ahead.
Ryan Fiedler:
Thanks Emma. Good morning, everyone. And welcome to Caterpillar's first quarter of 2023 earnings call. I'm Ryan Fiedler, Vice President of Investor Relations. Joining me today are Jim Umpleby, Chairman and CEO; Andrew Bonfield, Chief Financial Officer; Kyle Epley, Senior Vice President of the Global Finance Services Division; and Rob Rengel, Senior IR Manager. During our call today we'll be discussing the first quarter earnings release we issued earlier today. You can find our slides, the news release and a webcast recap at investors.caterpillar.com under Events & Presentations. The content of this call is protected by U.S. and international copyright law. Any rebroadcast, retransmission, reproduction or distribution of all or part of this content without Caterpillar's prior written permission is prohibited. Moving to Slide 2, during our call today, we'll make forward-looking statements, which are subject to risks and uncertainties. We'll also make assumptions that could cause our actual results to be different than the information that we're sharing with you on this call. Please refer to our recent SEC filings and the forward-looking statements reminder in the news release for details on factors that, individually or in aggregate, could cause our actual results to vary materially from our forecast. A detailed discussion of the many factors that we believe may have a material effect on our business on an ongoing basis is contained in our SEC filings. On today's call, we'll also refer to non-GAAP numbers. For reconciliation of any non-GAAP numbers to the appropriate U.S. GAAP numbers, please see the appendix of the earnings call slides. Now let's turn to Slide 3 and turn the call over to our Chairman and CEO, Jim Umpleby.
Jim Umpleby:
Thanks, Ryan. Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us. I'd like to start by thanking our global team for a strong first quarter, including double-digit top line growth, higher operating profit margins, record adjusted profit per share and strong ME&T free cash flow. Our results reflect healthy customer demand to most end markets for our products and services. We remain focused on executing our strategy and continue to invest for long-term profitable growth. In today's call, I'll begin with my perspectives on our performance in the quarter. I'll then provide some insights on our end markets. Lastly, I'll provide an update on our sustainability journey. It was a very strong quarter. Sales and revenues were better than we expected, with price realization, dealer inventory and sales to users each slightly better than we anticipated. Sales to users were higher than expected in Energy & Transportation and Resource Industries. Overall, sales and revenues rose by 17% versus the first quarter of 2022. The year-over-year increase was due to strong price realization and volume growth, which was driven by higher sales of equipment to end users. We achieved double-digit top line increases in each of our three primary segments. Adjusted operating profit margins increased to 21.1% in the first quarter, as we saw margins improve, both on a sequential and year-over-year basis. The adjusted operating profit margins were significantly better than we had anticipated primarily due to better-than-expected manufacturing costs, including efficiencies and absorption, stronger price realization and volume growth. Andrew will discuss in detail later. Backlog ended the quarter at $30.4 billion, flat relative to the fourth quarter of 2022. Equipment availability increased during the quarter due to improving supply chain conditions. While dealer order rates are lower, they remain at healthy levels. As you know, as availability improves, order rates typically normalize, as dealers can wait longer to place orders for long lead time items. Our healthy backlog continues to underpin our constructive views about our end markets. Despite the improvement in supply chain, pockets of challenge remain as we increase production, particularly for large engines, which impacts energy and transportation and some of our larger machines. We delivered a strong first quarter, which positions us well for an even better year in 2023 than we previously anticipated. While we continue to closely monitor global macroeconomic conditions, overall demand remains healthy across our products and services. Turning to Slide 4, in the first quarter of 2023, sales and revenues increased 17% versus last year at $15.9 billion. This was primarily due to favorable price and volume growth. Compared with the first quarter of 2022, overall sales to users increased 13%. For Construction Industries and Resource Industries, sales to users rose by 5%, while Energy & Transportation was up 39%. Sales to users in Construction Industries were flat, in line with our expectations. North American sales to users increased, as demand remained healthy for both nonresidential and residential, despite some moderation of the growth rate in residential. Overall, our North American sales to users were better than we expected. EAME also saw higher sales to users, led by strength in the Middle East. In Latin America and Asia Pacific, sales to users declined in the quarter. The decline in Asia Pacific included further weakening in China. In Resource Industries, sales to users increased 18%, which was our third consecutive quarter of accelerating sales to users. In Mining, sales to users benefited from a higher level of commissioning in the quarter. Within heavy construction and quarry and aggregates, sales to users also increased, supported by growth for infrastructure-related projects. In Energy & Transportation, sales to users increased by 39%. In the first quarter, oil and gas sales to users benefited from continued strength in new engine sales to customers, including repowering active fleets, upgrading technology to Tier 4 Dynamic Gas Blending and adding incremental gas compression units. We also saw strong sales of turbines and turbine-related services. Power Generation and Industrial sales to users continue to remain positive due to favorable market conditions. Transportation declined from a relatively low base primarily due to timing in marine deliveries, which was partially offset by deliveries of international locomotives. Dealer inventory increased by about $1.4 billion in the first quarter, which was slightly above our expectations compared to a $1.3 billion increase in the same quarter last year. In Construction Industries, the increase in dealer inventory was primarily due to stronger North American shipments, which remains our most constrained region. As we mentioned last quarter, over 70% of the combined dealer inventory in Resource Industries and Energy & Transportation is supported by customer orders. Moving to Slide 5, we generated strong ME&T free cash flow of $1.4 billion in the first quarter. We returned $1 billion to shareholders, which included about $600 million in dividends and $400 million in repurchase stock. We remain proud of our dividend aristocrat status and continue to expect to return substantially all ME&T free cash flow to shareholders over time through dividends and share repurchases. Now on Slide 6, I'll share some commentary on our expectations moving forward. While we continue to closely monitor global macroeconomic conditions, our first quarter results lead us to expect that 2023 will be even better than we had previously anticipated on both the top and bottom line. For 2023, we currently expect to be in the top half of the targeted range for both adjusted operating profit margin and ME&T free cash flow. Andrew will provide additional color. Before I discuss our outlook for key end markets, I'll provide some color on how we expect our top line to progress through this year. As I mentioned, we expect a strong top line for 2023, supported by price and higher sales to users, with healthy underlying end markets. We expect higher sales in the second quarter compared to the first, as is the typical seasonal pattern. Looking to the second half of 2023, it is important to highlight the second half of last year included the dealer inventory build of $1.4 billion, as dealers began to restock their inventories. We are not planning for this trend to repeat. Instead, we expect to see dealers decrease inventories compared to the first quarter levels and end 2023 about flat relative to the end of 2022. Although we expect sales to users to remain positive for our primary segments in each quarter, our planning assumption is that Caterpillar second half sales will have a dealer inventory impact. Let me explain. First, although dealer inventory in some products and regions have normalized, others remain constrained. For example, in North America, dealer inventory remains below the typical range for many products. However, there is greater excavator inventory in a few regions, as supply dynamics improved in 2022, which, coupled with the slowing in China, has resulted in improved excavation product availability. Given the improved availability of excavators, we expect that dealers will scale back their levels of excavator inventory in the second half of the year, even though demand remains healthy. As a reminder, dealers are independent businesses and control their own inventory. Second, in late 2023, we have scheduled a couple of new product changeovers in construction industry factories that will also impact the second half. Now I'll discuss our outlook for key end markets this year, starting with Construction Industries. In North America, overall, we continue to see positive momentum in 2023. We expect growth in nonresidential construction in North America due to the positive impact of government-related infrastructure investments and a healthy pipeline of construction projects. Although residential construction housing starts have softened, the growth rate of our residential construction equipment remains positive as the supply chain pressures alleviate. In Asia Pacific, excluding China, we expect growth in Construction Industries due to public infrastructure spending and supportive commodity prices. As we mentioned during our previous earnings calls, we expect China’s above ten-ton excavator industry to remain below 2022 levels due to low construction activity. In 2023, sales in China are expected to be below the typical range of 5% to 10% of total Caterpillar sales. In the EAME, business activity is now expected to increase versus last year based on healthy construction project activity, particularly strong construction demand in the Middle East. Although uncertain economic conditions remain, European construction is proving to be more resilient than we previously anticipated. Construction activity in Latin America is expected to be down in 2023 versus the strong 2022 performance. There is some concern about the potential impact of a commercial real estate slowdown. We estimate that North American commercial real estate accounts for about 1% of total construction industry sales. Any slowdown related to this sector should not have a significant impact on Construction Industries. In Resource Industries, we expect healthy mining demand to continue, as commodity prices remain above investment thresholds. As I have mentioned during the last few years, customers remain capital disciplined, which supports a gradual increase in mining over time. We anticipate production utilization levels will remain elevated. We also expect the aging of the fleet and a lower level of parked trucks to support future demand for our equipment and services. We continue to believe the energy transition will support increased commodity demand, expanding our total addressable market and providing further opportunities for profitable growth. In heavy construction and quarry and aggregates, we anticipate continued growth due to major infrastructure and nonresidential construction projects. In Energy & Transportation, we expect to follow our normal seasonal pattern, with higher sales in the second half of the year versus the first half. In oil and gas, reciprocating engines, although customers remain disciplined, we are encouraged by continued strength and demand for both well servicing and gas compression. Power generation reciprocating engine demand is expected to remain healthy, including strong data center growth. New equipment orders and services for solar turbines in both oil and gas and power generation are robust. Industrial remains healthy. In transportation, we anticipate strength in high-speed Marine as customers continue to upgrade aging fleets. Moving to Slide 7. We are contributing to a reduced carbon future and continue to invest in new products, technologies and services to help our customers achieve their climate-related objectives. We recently completed and upgraded more than 50 models across our entire next-generation hydraulic excavator line. The new models reduced fuel consumption by up to 25% compared to previous models and provide another option for customers to lower emissions, while improving operational efficiency. A customer can realize meaningful emissions reductions by simply moving to the newest next-gen model. This example reinforces our ongoing sustainability leadership and how we help our customers build a better, more sustainable world. In addition, we look forward to issuing our 18th annual sustainability report in May. With that, I'll turn the call over to Andrew.
Andrew Bonfield:
Thanks, Jim, and good morning, everyone. I'll begin by providing further color on the first quarter results, including the performance of our segments. Then I'll cover the balance sheet and ME&T free cash flow before concluding with a few comments on the full year and our assumptions for the second quarter. Beginning on Slide 8. Sales and revenues for the first quarter increased by 17% or $2.3 billion to $15.9 billion, the sales increase versus the prior year was due to strong price realization and higher volume, partially offset by currency impacts. Sales were higher than we had expected in January, with price realization, dealer inventory and end user demand each slightly better than we had anticipated. Operating profit increased by 47% by $876 million to $2.7 billion, which includes the impact of the divestiture of the company's longwall business. Adjusted operating profit increased by 79% or $1.5 billion to $3.3 billion. Favorable price realization and higher volume was partially offset by higher manufacturing costs. The adjusted operating profit margin was 21.1%, an increase of 740 basis points versus the prior year. As Jim mentioned, the adjusted operating margin was much better than we had anticipated. Lower-than-expected manufacturing costs, including efficiencies and absorption were the largest variable, while price realization and volume were also stronger than we had envisioned. I'll provide additional color in a moment. Adjusted profit per share increased by 70% to $4.91 in the first quarter compared to $2.88 in the first quarter of last year. Adjusted profit per share in the first quarter of 2023 excluded pretax restructuring costs of $611 million, most of this related to the noncash charge from the divestiture of the company's longwall business. This compares to pretax restructuring costs of $13 million in the first quarter of 2022. Other income of $32 million in the quarter was lower than the first quarter of 2022 by $221 million. The year-over-year decline included about $100 million unfavorable currency impact related to ME&T balance sheet translation and an adverse impact of $80 million for pension expense. The dollar strengthened marginally since our last earnings call, so the currency impact within the first quarter of 2023 was about $30 million better than we had anticipated than when we spoke to you in January. Finally, the provision for income tax in the first quarter, excluding discrete items, reflected a global annual effective tax rate of 23%. Moving on to Slide 9. The 17% increase in the top line versus the prior year was driven by favorable price realization and higher sales volume, while currency remained a headwind to sales. Volume improved in part due to a 13% increase in sales to users. The impact from changes in dealer inventory was minimal, as the $1.4 billion build in the first quarter was similar to that seen in the first quarter of 2022. Services sales volume was slightly down, mainly due to dealer ordering patterns while services to their customers remain positive. Compared to our expectations a quarter ago, sales were higher than we anticipated, largely due to slightly stronger volume and better-than-expected price realization. On volume, sales to users outpaced our expectations due to strong demand. In addition, the improving supply chain supported higher levels of production across our primary segments. This enabled dealers to increase their inventory levels ahead of the selling season by slightly more than we had expected. Moving to Slide 10. First quarter operating profit increased by 47% to $2.7 billion. Adjusted operating profit increased by 79% versus the prior year quarter as favorable price realization outpaced higher manufacturing costs. Sales volume was also a benefit. Our first quarter adjusted operating profit margin of 21.1% was a 740 basis point increase versus the prior year. Now let me explain why our adjusted operating profit margin was so much better than we had expected. While manufacturing costs did increase year-over-year, the increase was less than we had than anticipated and was the most important factor in the quarter. As we have mentioned, volumes were better than expected due to favorable demand and improvements in the supply chain. This helped manufacturing cost as both factory efficiency and cost absorption were better than expected. Freight costs were also lower than we had anticipated due to lower premium freight utilization and rate reductions. Material costs were in line with our expectations and did not impact the margin outperformance. In addition to lower manufacturing costs, price realization was also stronger than we had anticipated a quarter ago. Stronger-than-anticipated volume had a smaller beneficial impact on margins. Spend on strategic investments was also lower than expected, as project spend ramps up slower than we had planned. Moving to Slide 11, I'll review segment performance. Starting with Construction Industries, sales increased by 10% in the first quarter to $6.7 billion due to favorable price realization, partially offset by lower sales volume and unfavorable currency impacts. The decrease in sales volume was driven by the impact from changes in dealer inventories, which increased by less in the first quarter of 2023 than compared to the prior year. Compared to our expectations, sales were higher due to stronger volumes. While sales to end users were as we'd anticipated, the dealer inventory increase was slightly above our expectations. By region, sales in North America rose by 33% due to favorable price realization and higher sales volume. Supply chain improvements enabled stronger-than-expected shipments in North America, supporting dealer restocking in the region. This is a positive, as North America continues to be our most constrained region from a dealer inventory perspective. Sales in Latin America decreased by 4% primarily due to lower sales volume, partially offset by favorable price realization. In EAME, sales increased by 5% on favorable price realization, partially offset by favorable currency impacts. Sales in Asia-Pacific decreased by 21% primarily due to lower sales volume and unfavorable currency impacts, partially offset by favorable price realization. First quarter profit for Construction Industries increased by 69% versus the prior year to $1.8 billion, price realization mainly drove the increase. This was partially offset by lower sales volume, including an unfavorable product mix and higher manufacturing costs. The segment's operating margin of 26.5% was an increase of 920 basis points versus last year. The segment margin for the quarter exceeded our expectations on moderating manufacturing costs and better-than-expected price and volume. Manufacturing costs were lower than we had expected on favorable freight, manufacturing efficiencies and absorption. Production volume was more favorable than we had anticipated, which drove the usual favorable benefits margins from the fourth quarter to the first. You will recall that in January, we said we did not expect that to happen. Turning to Slide 12. Resource Industries sales grew by 21% in the first quarter to $3.4 billion. The increase was primarily due to favorable price realization and higher sales volume. Although, aftermarket sales volumes were lower in resource industries due to dealer buying patterns, dealer services to customers remain positive. First quarter profit for Resource Industries increased by 112% versus the prior year to $764 million, mainly due to favorable price realization and higher sales volume. This was partially offset by unfavorable manufacturing costs. The segment's operating margin of 22.3% was an increase of 950 basis points versus last year. Segment margin was better than we expected due to lower manufacturing costs, including favorable absorption, efficiencies and freight. Price realization and volume benefits also exceeded our expectations. Now on Slide 13. Energy & Transportation sales increased by 24% in the first quarter to $6.3 billion, with sales up double-digits across all applications. Oil and gas sales increased by 39%, power generation sales by 27%, industrial sales rose by 23%. And finally, transportation sales increased by 14%. First quarter profit for Energy & Transportation increased by 96% versus the prior year to $1.1 billion. The increase was mainly due to favorable price realization and higher sales volume. Unfavorable manufacturing costs and higher SG&A and R&D expenses acted as a partial offset. SG&A and R&D expenses increased primarily due to investments aligned with our strategic initiatives, including electrification and services growth. The segment's operating margin of 16.9% was an increase of 620 basis points versus last year, but lower than the fourth quarter as is typical from a seasonality perspective. Compared to our expectations last quarter, margin was better than anticipated on lower manufacturing costs due in part to favorable absorption. Volume was also modestly stronger than we had expected. Moving to Slide 14. Financial Products revenue increased by 15% to $902 million primarily due to higher average financing rates across all regions. Segment profit decreased by 3% to $232 million. The slight profit decrease was mainly due to unfavorable impacts from equity securities, currency exchange losses and mark-to-market adjustments on derivative contracts. However, higher net yield on average earning assets and lower provision for credit losses acted as a partial offset. Business activity remains strong, and our portfolio continues to perform well. Past dues in the quarter were 2.00%, a 5 basis point improvement compared to the first quarter of 2022. This is the lowest first quarter past dues percentage since 2006. And whilst retail new business volume declined compared to the first quarter of 2022, this was expected as high interest rates drove more cash deals and increased competition from banks. Finally, we continue to see strong demand for used equipment, as prices remain elevated while used equipment inventory is at historic lows. Before I move on, I want to point out that CAT Financial has strong liquidity and broad access to funding. We are funded through the wholesale debt markets rather than from customer deposits, and we match assets and liabilities based on duration, currency and interest rate profile. As we have mentioned previously, in a rising interest rate environment, banks are able to provide more competitive interest rates than CAT Financial, and we tend to lose some share of the machines financed. In the event of a slowdown in lending from regional banks, we are well positioned to step in and fund creditworthy customers, so they can purchase their machines. Now on Slide 15. We continue to generate strong ME&T free cash flows. ME&T free cash flow of $1.4 billion in the quarter was about a $1.8 billion increase compared to an outflow in the prior year. The increase was primarily driven by higher profit. This increase is notable in the quarter that included our annual short-term incentive payout and a rise in working capital impacted by an increase in Caterpillar inventory. As Jim mentioned, following the strong half – first – strong first quarter, we expect to end the year in the top half of our ME&T free cash flow range of $4 billion to $8 billion. CapEx was around $400 million in the quarter, and we still expect to spend around $1.5 billion for the year. As Jim mentioned, capital deployment was about $1 billion in the quarter for dividends and share repurchases. Our balance sheet remains strong, and we have ample liquidity with an enterprise cash balance of $6.8 billion. Now on Slide 16, I will share some high-level assumptions for the full year, followed by the second quarter. Looking at the full year, we expect a strong top-line supported by price and higher sales to users, with healthy underlying end markets. As Jim mentioned, we expect full year reported sales for Construction Industries to be impacted by dealer inventory movements, particularly in the second half of the year. Underlying demand remains strong and as we do expect Construction Industries sales to users to show positive growth in the next three quarters. We anticipate continued strength in Resource Industries end markets and stronger end user sales in 2023. In addition, as typical seasonality would suggest, we expect to see some sales ramp in the second half in Energy & Transportation given strong demand for large engines and turbines. Moving on to margins. Based on our current planning assumptions, we anticipate full year adjusted operating profit margins to be in the top half of our target range. Given the favorable impact of cost absorption in the first quarter, which we do not expect to recur, we anticipate margins in the remaining quarters of the year will be lower than the first quarter level, while underlying demand and end markets remain strong. Also despite the slower-than-expected start, we anticipate the spend related to strategic investments within SG&A and R&D will ramp through the year. We expect price to continue to be favorable, although the absolute dollar value of the year-over-year price increases will moderate as we lap through the increases put through in 2022. We also expect the relationship between price and manufacturing costs for machines to normalize as the year progresses, as we’ve now caught up to the manufacturing cost increases, which have outpaced price in late 2021 and early 2022. This means that the benefit to margins of price outpacing manufacturing cost inflation will moderate tempering the possibility of further margin expansion. Keep in mind, similar to the first quarter, we still anticipate a headwind of about $80 million per quarter at the corporate level related to pension expense. We also continue to anticipate restructuring expenses of around $700 million this year, with around $100 million remaining following the first quarter. And the global effective tax rate should be around 23%, excluding discrete items. Now on to our assumptions for the second quarter. We expect higher sales in the second quarter compared to the prior year on strong sales to users and price. Following the typical seasonal pattern, we expect higher sales in the second quarter as compared to the first. We expect Energy & Transportation sales will accelerate given strong sales to users, which are supported by healthy demand. We expect to report flattish sales levels compared to the first quarter in Construction Industries and Resource Industries. Both segments are expected to report positive sales to users. In the second quarter of 2022, we saw a decrease in dealer inventory of $400 million. We expect a smaller decrease in the second quarter of 2023. Specific to second quarter margins versus the prior year, adjusted operating margins at the enterprise and segment level should be substantially stronger than the prior year on favorable price and volume. However, we do expect to see a return to the typical seasonal pattern of lower second quarter margins compared to the first quarter, despite higher sales. We expect the year-over-year benefit of price realization in the second quarter to moderate compared to the benefit we saw in the first quarter, as we lapped prior year increases. In addition, SG&A and R&D investment spend should increase, as we continue to accelerate our strategic investments in areas like autonomy, alternative fuels, connectivity, digital and electrification. Finally, we do not anticipate that the favorable absorption impact that we saw in the first quarter will be repeated. At the segment level, in Construction Industries, we expect lower second quarter margins compared to the first quarter largely due to the lack of a favorable impact from absorption and a ramp-up in strategic investment spend. Likewise, second quarter margins in Resource Industries were likely to be lower than the first quarter as is the typical seasonal pattern. Conversely, Energy & Transportation should see a slight margin improvement compared to the first quarter levels, supported by stronger sales volume as demand remains healthy. Now turning to Slide 17, let me summarize. Sales grew by 17% led by strong price realization and volume gains. The adjusted operating profit margin increased by 740 basis points to 21.1%. ME&T free cash flow was strong at $1.4 billion, and we expect to be at the top half of our ME&T free cash flow range of $4 billion to $8 billion for the full year. After a strong first quarter, we currently expect our 2023 adjusted operating profit margins will be in the top half of our target range. The environment remains positive with improving supply chain dynamics, a strong backlog and healthy underlying end markets. We will continue to execute our strategy for long-term profitable growth. And with that, we’ll take your questions.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from the line of Rob Wertheimer with Melius Research. Your line is now open.
Rob Wertheimer:
Thank you.
Jim Umpleby:
Good morning, Rob.
Rob Wertheimer:
Good morning. My question is really on North American construction, where – I’m curious whether your end users have seen infrastructure dollars starting to flow have started to make orders based on that, whether your dealers make orders in anticipation of that? Or whether a lot of that is still ahead? So I’ll stop there.
Jim Umpleby:
Yes. Rob, we have seen some positive impact of those infrastructure dollars start to flow. The projects that don’t require a lot of permitting, things like of reservicing roads, that kind of activity has already started, and we’re seeing a positive benefit of that. And one of the things, of course, when customers believe there’s a pipeline of projects coming, they’re more likely typically to make that capital investment to make a purchase of a piece of new equipment. But yes, it has started, and we expect it to continue for some time.
Rob Wertheimer:
Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Tami Zakaria with JPMorgan. Your line is now open.
Tami Zakaria:
Hi good morning. Thanks so much for taking my question. Just to clarify the operating margin expectation for the year, I think you said you’re expecting it to be at the top half of the target range. So can you remind us what that range exactly is? Are we talking about the 18% to 21% that we saw in the prior quarter’s presentation? What exactly is that range you’re talking about?
Andrew Bonfield:
Yes. So Tami, to be clear, and I realized as we were saying it, they could be interpreted in two ways. One, which is could it be the 10% to 21% range. No, that is not what we’re referring to. If you remember, we have a range of a 3% range based on different levels of sales revenues – and revenues. That is where we’re talking about. So for example, if you’re assuming a certain level of revenues, if you remember the graph we produced, we’ve given you that will show a margin range. We expect to be in the top half of that 3% range at that level of sales revenues for the year.
Tami Zakaria:
Okay, got it. That’s helpful. Thank you so much.
Andrew Bonfield:
Thank you, Tami.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Michael Feniger with Bank of America. Your line is now open.
Michael Feniger:
Thank you. The market is worried about dealer destocking and the impact to construction margins. In prior cycles, margins came under heavy pressure when there was a big destocking event. Is there anything different in terms of how CAT is managing its production, your strong pricing dynamic, inventory management with you and your dealers that we should be thinking about this cycle compared to prior cycles?
Jim Umpleby:
Yes. So certainly, one of the things we’ve done is worked hard on our S&OP process over the last few years to really minimize the impact of that kind of an issue. Firstly, to keep in mind, the way we are – the market is positioned now, we have strong sales to users, and we feel good about the underlying demand in our end markets. So, I’ll start with that. During a period of supply constraints, which really has occurred because of all the issues you’re aware of during the last few years, it’s not unusual for us to have dealers ordering a bit more, and they couldn’t really get the kind of dealer inventory that they would like to have. They’ve been able with some easing in supply chain, although we still have periods – areas of real constraint. They have been able to start to increase dealer inventory. Having said that, we have talked about the fact that we expect dealer inventory to end the year about flat as to where it ended in 2022 and expect a slight decrease during the year. But again, with our S&OP process, the way we look at that now, the way we work with our dealers, we’re comfortable in that process that we’ve really improved it.
Andrew Bonfield:
Yes. And let me just add, because, obviously, one of the concerns – we talk about dealer inventory in terms of the global dealer inventory number where we talk about the three months to four months. There are some areas with some products, which are actually below the bottom end of that range. And so we do not see at this stage anywhere apart from potentially with excavation where there is actually any level of stocking, which even gets close to the top end of that range. So it’s really – you have to look at it product by product. And again, just to remind you that last year’s build in dealer inventory, 60% of that related to RI and to Energy & Transportation, of which 70% of that – more than 70% of that is covered by firm customer orders. This is – I think, with respect a little bit misunderstood by the market. We are not in a situation where we are allowing or expecting dealer inventory to become a headwind for us at any time in the next few quarters.
Jim Umpleby:
And dealer inventory is within a typical range of three to four months, and again we have strong market conditions.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Jamie Cook with Credit Suisse.
Jamie Cook:
Hi. Good morning and congratulations on a nice quarter. I guess my question...
Jim Umpleby:
Thanks Jamie.
Jamie Cook:
Jim, just the market I think is going to be worried that the performance this quarter is backward-looking. So can you like speak to how you're thinking about backlog or book-to-bill in the back half of the year? Can that continue to be positive? Do you think backlog will be higher at the end of this year versus where we were this quarter? And then just my second question, Andrew, on the margins can you talk to margins in the back half of the second half versus first half? Just trying to understand how much lower the margins would be in the second half and what's being weighed down by strategic investment? Thank you.
Jim Umpleby:
Yes. Certainly, Jamie. First to answer your first question on backlog, we are encouraged by the very strong backlog that we had, it's flat compared to last quarter, but it's at a very healthy level. Again, we have a healthy level of demand as well. As I mentioned earlier, our – some supply chain constraints have started to ease. And when, in fact availability improves, dealers often wait a bit longer to place orders for new equipment and that is part of what happens. But again, oil and gas is strong. We have, like I mentioned earlier that our Solar Turbines business is strong, Cat Oil and Gas is strong. But again, we feel good about the market conditions, and the backlog reflects that.
Andrew Bonfield:
Yes. And again, just to add to that before talking about margins, just a reminder, backlog is one of the metrics we look at – to look at where we think about demand as the demand signal. It really does often reflect availability from the – and therefore, often there's one part of that equation. Other things we look at is STUs order rates and also our conversations with dealers, which give us optimism rather than just purely focusing on the backlog per se. With regards to margins, as we said in the second half you would normally see, we're probably returning more to a more typical pattern within construction. We didn't expect that. If you remember last in January, we didn't expect to see the normal increase from the fourth quarter to the first. We did. We would not expect to see the normal pattern of margins being declining as we go through the year. That's a function of production. Obviously, as the year progresses, we produce less, which impacts on absorption in particular and also factory efficiencies. Within RI, that tends to bounce around a little bit more and obviously is impacted by the level of sales and revenues. And in E&T, we expect margins actually will progress as we go through the year as per the normal pattern.
Jamie Cook:
Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of David Raso with Evercore. Your line is now open.
David Raso:
Hi. Thank you. First, just a clarification. When you speak to the second half of dealer inventory destocking, I know it moves around a bit year-to-year, but isn't the historical pattern that the dealers do take inventory down in the second half of the year, roughly about $1 billion? Just making sure I understand the commentary that it's a destock versus there's some normal seasonality to it. I know you [indiscernible] excavators, if that really might be a destock. I know it's really hard to get dozers right now to Brazil. So I'm just trying to understand, is it a destock or is it sort of normal seasonality first, but then I have a different question. It's a clarification on that.
Andrew Bonfield:
Yes. So just to clarify, David, obviously versus last year where we saw an increase. So remind you there's a $700 million increase in both the third and the fourth quarter. We would expect to decrease this year. Yes, it's not unseasonable, but it is a decrease versus the year-over-year. So just that does create a gap between overall, so that's part of the reason we're just highlighting it now just to remind everybody.
Jim Umpleby:
Yes, there's a normal spring selling season. Sorry, David, you exactly right.
David Raso:
Yes. Okay. I just want to make sure there wasn't something unique the behavioral pattern is to take it down in the second half, but...
Andrew Bonfield:
Yes, correct. Correct.
David Raso:
Real simple question, 2024, I know lead times in some areas are getting better, some are still challenged. But it does appear the dealers are willing to order a little earlier for next year than a normal at this time of the year ordering for next year. Just any early signs you have on order books for 2024, I think would be very helpful? Thank you.
Jim Umpleby:
Yes. It is still too early to certainly predict 2024. As I mentioned, because availability is improving that gives dealers the opportunity for some products to wait a bit longer when they place their orders, and that's not the case for every product. But it is too early to really make a call on 2024.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Jerry Revich with Goldman Sachs. Your line is now open.
Jim Umpleby:
Hi, Jerry.
Andrew Bonfield:
Hello, Jerry.
Jerry Revich:
Yes. Hi. Good morning, Jim, Andrew, Ryan. Thanks for making time. I'm wondering if you could just talk about the margins for you folks are now at the high-end of your framework range and supply chain performance looks like it's improving from here and for the rest of the industry. The margins are at the very high end of their ranges as well. How do you think about the risk of pricing concessions for the industry from here as supply improves further? Obviously, we haven't seen discounting from you folks in the past, but I'm wondering if you can talk about it if the cycle is different at all given just the more complexity? Thanks.
Jim Umpleby:
Yes. Of course, as we serve a variety of industries and there's – it's not a one size fits all. So we look very carefully at the market conditions and the competitive situation for each product that we sell into the various markets that we have. Certainly, in some areas product is still constrained, and it's still quite challenging to get product. And in others, as we mentioned like an excavation, there is more availability. So that has an impact as well. But really what we do is, as you can imagine, look at – we always take into account our cost inputs, and then we look at the competitive situation for each product in each market and we make a decision based on that.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Steve Volkmann with Jefferies. Your line is now open.
Steve Volkmann:
Great, and good morning everybody. I wanted to go back, Jim, I think I heard you say that you thought North American commercial construction was like 1% of CI. Correct me if I got that wrong, but it made me wonder what you think really the key drivers are of that business, so that we can sort of monitor those going forward?
Jim Umpleby:
What are the key drivers of commercial construction?
Steve Volkmann:
No, I'm sorry, I understand – if commercial is only 1% of CI, what's the other 99%?
Jim Umpleby:
Yes. So we talk a lot about non-residential, and we've talked about the fact that we are quite encouraged by legislation that has passed, whether it's IIJA, the Chips Act the IRA. So again, looking at that activity that's being supported by that legislation, we feel good about residential in North America. One of the things we wanted to do was because there had been a lot of commentary, frankly about commercial real estate, we wanted to just clarify that it's a very small portion of CI because it seems to be getting a lot more play than it deserved, quite frankly.
Steve Volkmann:
Yes. I agree. Thank you.
Andrew Bonfield:
Yes. And sorry, just I want to clarify one point that I responded to the question, but yes, there will be dealer inventory destocking occurring in the second half of the year, but it will not impact us. We will still see positive sales momentum in those quarters. So it does not have an impact where it takes us down year-over-year at any point in time in the next few quarters. Just to clarify that.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Chad Dillard with Bernstein. Your line is now open.
Chad Dillard:
Hi. Good morning everyone.
Jim Umpleby:
Good morning.
Chad Dillard:
So a couple of questions. So first, can you comment on your lead times in construction today versus six months ago? And then can you just clarify your comments about the second half? You talked about destocking and factory maintenance. Does that mean that 3Q and 4Q will be only weaker than normal on a sequential basis?
Jim Umpleby:
Yes. So lead times – so because of easing supply chain constraints in some areas, lead times have improved. We still really have challenges in certain areas. Earthmoving is a great example. We have challenges around availability and lead times around some BCP products as well. Excavation, as I mentioned earlier has in fact eased, but we are making some changes in factory – changes in the second half. Actually we're going from a third-party engine to a Caterpillar engine and some products. So as we make that change over, that will in fact, have a bit of an impact on production. And it's obviously temporary, and it's a positive thing for us long term to get our own engines in those products. So we'll be making that change later in the year.
Andrew Bonfield:
Yes. I mean, and obviously. Sorry, carry on.
Chad Dillard:
Yes. I was going to – can you just clarify your comment about the second half you talked about destocking some in the second half? So I just want to know, does that mean that 3Q and 4Q will be seasonally weaker than the normal on a stencil basis?
Andrew Bonfield:
Yes. Back to the comment numbers I said to David earlier, we did have inventory builds in the third and fourth quarters of last year. So you're running against a comparator, which has a build versus a decrease. So year-over-year that does impact what would be the normal seasonal pattern. Obviously, other factors coming to that price and also what underlying volume demand is, but that will have an impact on our reported sales in those quarters. So we're just highlighting that, so that as you think about the models, you don't build the normal seasonable pattern into those models as you look out for the next several quarters.
Chad Dillard:
Great. Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of John Joyner with BMO Capital Markets. Your line is now open.
John Joyner:
So, thank you for taking my question. And sorry to ask another question about the dealer stocks. But I guess, if demand and sales to end users have stayed strong, and inventories are not elevated, why would there be dealer destocking and not some restocking? I mean does it possibly imply a bit of hesitation among dealers when looking ahead?
Jim Umpleby:
Yes. I don't believe that's the case. And again, as I mentioned as availability improves and lead times decrease due to easing supply chain challenges, it's not unusual. And as we looked in the past, it's not unusual for dealers to – they can wait longer to place orders, and they need a bit less in inventory because we can respond more quickly. So it's not surprising to have that happen.
Andrew Bonfield:
Yes. And also, if you recall, we've talked about the new sales and operations planning process and one of the things we're trying to avoid through that process is dealers holding more inventory than is really necessary. They are independent businesses. They make their own decisions of our inventory, but we try to work with them to avoid any overstocking, which then has an impact when we later on where you have to destock. So we're trying just to be more proactive in that regard than we have been historically.
Jim Umpleby:
And again, when we can respond more quickly to dealer orders. The dealers feel comfortable holding a bit less inventory.
John Joyner:
Got it. Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Matt Elkott with TD Cowen. Your line is now open.
Matt Elkott:
Good morning. Thank you. So I know the backlog was unchanged. But how has the timing of the backlog changed? I mean, does it go out further? Did any orders get pushed out because of all the macro uncertainty? And did you have – you guys have any major cancellations that were offset by new orders?
Jim Umpleby:
No, what we have not seen any major cancellations, and we feel quite good about the quality of the backlog that we have. Of course, much of it is for solar turbines, for oil and gas, for mining. So again, we feel quite good about the quality of that backlog, and we haven't seen major cancellations.
Matt Elkott:
Got it. Thank you very much.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Kristen Owen with Oppenheimer. Your line is now open.
Kristen Owen:
Great. Thank you for taking the question. I'm going to switch it up here a little bit and ask you to talk about the NMG announcement that you recently made for the zero-emission fleet. Looks like that includes some related infrastructure. So just a couple of pointed questions there. First, how do you see the rollout progression of product – a project like this? And then second, how should we think about this in terms of a blueprint for future mine site decarbonization opportunities? Like how do you price for that? How do you think about packaging that sort of deal? Thank you.
Jim Umpleby:
Yes. So certainly, we've had a number of requests from many of our mining customers, and NMG is one of them to help them decarbonize their operations. And so we are working with NMG specifically to help to provide battery car machines to allow them to execute that project. So again, it's a collaborative process. We're working closely with them. We're working through commercial issues with them. But again, we feel quite good about where we are. We demonstrated in November to a number of our customers a fully loaded battery-powered – large mining truck operating in diesel power performance in terms of speed, fully loaded – on the flat going up the hill. So again, we feel good about where we are. But it is a process. So it's a multiyear process that working with our customers.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Tim Thein with Citi. Your line is now open.
Tim Thein:
Thank you. Good morning. The quarters on – so this – the improvement or whatever improvement you are seeing in the supply chain and a little bit better visibility and thus your ability to react faster, how does that – Andrew, how do we think about that, the interplay with that as we go through the year and Cat's own inventory? And I know there's some – there's been flattered somewhat probably by inflation and other factors. But – and just thinking of that impact as you go through the year and ultimately, the impact from an absorption standpoint, if in fact, we start working that down. Thank you.
Andrew Bonfield:
Yes. So obviously, some of our assumptions are that we do not expect the absorption impact to continue. And obviously, yes some of that will reverse as we move our product out of the plant into the dealer channel, and that's forecasted within our expectations for margins as we go through the remainder of the year. The other factor, obviously, to take into account is the potential benefit to cash flow. As we've said, we did see a very strong free cash flow in the first quarter, despite an increase in Caterpillar inventory. Obviously, over time, we expect, as the supply chain improves, to start working that inventory down and start to see a full benefit of that from a cash perspective and converting that back into cash. So that is part of the reason why we're expecting obviously strong cash flow as we go through the remainder of the year.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Mig Dobre with Baird. Your line is now open.
Mig Dobre:
Thank you. Good morning. Jim, I appreciate your comment earlier about taking a proactive approach to sort of managing this dealer inventory dynamic. But I'm sort of curious here, as you look at the last, call it, 18 months to two years, do you get a sense that there's been some ordering on a part of dealers that was just a reaction to elongated lead times, and that those sort of patterns are subject to you see some pretty meaningful shifts now that your lead times in the supply chain are getting better? And as you – as the year progresses, if the destock that you're expecting sort of fails to materialize at the pace that you're anticipating, are we to understand here that you're going to take a proactive approach to adjusting production in the back half of this year? Thank you.
Andrew Bonfield:
Yes. So Mig, its Andrew. Let me just try and reiterate again what we do within our sales and operations planning process is we work closely with the dealers to understand what the level of orders. We use machine learning to try and understand what we think the actual real order rate is based on customer demand versus speculative demand. So one of the things that does do is we obviously don't accept orders for what we would call speculative demand. That helps us try to manage production. Obviously, the focus for us is to manage production as smoothly as possible over time because that's the most efficient and effective way of doing it. Obviously, as we think about the remainder of the year, and we're looking at inventory and we're looking at the outlook for the year, just to remind you, we still expect end-user demand to be positive for the remainder of the year. So that will impact us to actually make – that we will continue to actually probably still be ramping production for the remainder of the year, even though we do take Macy [ph], a small reduction – relatively small reduction in dealer inventory over the next couple of quarters. We're just trying to highlight that to you as a result of the fact that it will impact reported results for some of the individual segments. And this basically, overall, as we also said, we are not necessarily at the bottom end of the range for all products and all categories. So there still will be areas where we are still trying to ramp up production. For example, large engines is an area where we're still constrained. That obviously is an area where we will still be ramping up production, rather than adjusting production in any other way.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Steven Fisher with UBS. Your line is now open.
Steven Fisher:
Thanks. Good morning.
Andrew Bonfield:
Hi, Steven.
Steven Fisher:
Question about a couple of elements within E&T. I thought it was interesting that your industrial retail sales within E&T accelerated, but your own construction sales were relatively steady. So I'm curious what markets drove that industrial acceleration. And then on the power gen side, to what extent are there other elements besides data centers that are driving the strength in that segment? Thank you.
Jim Umpleby:
Well, we sell industrial engines for a whole variety of applications, not just the other construction equipment. So part of it is power gen, and we sell industrial engines to drive everything from cement mixers. It's a whole variety of applications. So again, a lot of strength there. The business is doing quite well. There's a lot of momentum. In terms of power generation, we provide generator sets for a whole variety of applications. Data centers is one of them, and we've highlighted data centers because it has been quite strong over the last few years. And if we look forward, we feel good about that continuing. Just thinking about AI, thinking about the cloud, thinking about all of the data center users, we feel good about that. But we provide gen sets for a whole variety of applications. But the one that is really driving a lot of the growth at the moment is data centers, which is why we highlighted it.
Steven Fisher:
Thank you.
Ryan Fiedler:
Emma, we have time for one more question.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Dillon Cumming with Morgan Stanley. Your line is now open.
Dillon Cumming:
Great. Good morning. Thanks for the question. I just wanted to ask one on the kind of financing environment. I think you guys called out the opportunity for Cat Financial maybe having some more flexibility to finance customers that might have more difficult to getting kind of financing from smaller banks. Just curious, first, you can kind of with some numbers around that and what the kind of share opportunity there is. And secondarily, if you're actually seeing evidence on the ground with regards to customers not being able to get financing at the moment over the last three months or so.
Andrew Bonfield:
Yes. Obviously, it's way too early to see any impact yet from any tightening credit conditions within the regional banks. But obviously, our expectation is that, that may have an impact. We tend to vary. It can probably be between 5% and 10% of machines financed that we could add in times where we are more competitive from a financing perspective with regional banks. So that's probably – we're probably at the lower end of our normal range at the moment. So we could add 5% to 10% of machines without any problem whatsoever from a capacity perspective, which would be very strong for us and very positive at Cat Financial.
Dillon Cumming:
Thank you.
Jim Umpleby:
Okay. Well, thank you all for joining us. We appreciate your questions. We are proud of our team's performance in the first quarter. And as we mentioned earlier, we believe that 2023 will be even better than we had previously anticipated on both the top and bottom line due to the healthy demand across our end markets, and we remain focused on executing our strategy and continuing to invest for the long-term. Again, thank you for joining us.
Ryan Fiedler:
Thanks, Jim. Andrew. Yes, thanks, Jim, Andrew and everyone who joined us today. A replay of our call will be available online later this morning. We'll also post a transcript on our Investor Relations website as soon as it is available. You'll also find a first quarter results video with our CFO and an SEC filing with our sales to users data. Click on investors.caterpillar.com and then click on Financials to view those materials. If you have any questions, please reach out to Rob or me. The Investor Relations general number is (309) 675-4549. Now we'll turn the call back to Emma to conclude the call.
Operator:
Thank you for attending today's conference call. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Welcome to the Fourth Quarter 2022 Caterpillar Earnings Conference Call. Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Ryan Fiedler. Thank you. Please go ahead.
Ryan Fiedler:
Thank you, Emma. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Caterpillar's fourth quarter of 2022 earnings call. I'm Ryan Fiedler, Vice President of Investor Relations. Joining me today are Jim Umpleby, Chairman and CEO; Andrew Bonfield, Chief Financial Officer; Kyle Epley, Senior Vice President of the Global Finance Services Division; and Rob Rengel, Senior IR Manager. During our call, which will extend to 8:40 AM Central, we'll be discussing the fourth quarter and full-year earnings release we issued earlier today. You can find our slides, the news release and a webcast recap at investors.caterpillar.com under Events & Presentations. The content of this call is protected by US and international copyright law. Any rebroadcast, retransmission, reproduction or distribution of all or part of this content without Caterpillar's prior written permission is prohibited. Moving to slide 2. During our call today, we'll make forward-looking statements, which are subject to risks and uncertainties. We'll also make assumptions that could cause our actual results to be different from the information we're sharing with you on this call. Please refer to our recent SEC filings and the forward-looking statements reminder in the news release for details on factors that individually or, in aggregate, could cause our actual results to vary materially from our forecast. A detailed discussion of the many factors that we believe may have a material effect on our business on an ongoing basis is contained in our SEC filings. On today's call, we'll also refer to non-GAAP numbers. For a reconciliation of any non-GAAP numbers to the appropriate US GAAP numbers, please see the appendix of the earnings call slides. Today, we reported profit per share of $2.79 for the fourth quarter of 2022 compared with $3.91 of profit per share in the fourth quarter of 2021. We're including adjusted profit per share in addition to our US GAAP results. Our adjusted profit per share was $3.86 for the fourth quarter of 2022 compared with adjusted profit per share of $2.69 for the fourth quarter of 2021. Adjusted profit per share for both quarters excluded mark-to-market gains for remeasurement of pension and other post-employment benefit plans as well as restructuring items. Adjusted profit per share for the fourth quarter of 2022 also excluded a goodwill impairment. Now, let's turn to slide 3 and turn the call over to our Chairman and CEO, Jim Umpleby.
James Umpleby III:
Thanks, Ryan. Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us. As we close out 2022. I'd like to start by recognizing our global team for another strong quarter. Our results reflect healthy demand across most end markets for our products and services. We remain focused on executing our strategy and continue to invest for long term profitable growth. In today's call, I'll begin with my perspectives on our performance in the quarter and for the full year. In today's call, I'll begin with my perspectives on our performance in the quarter and for the full year. I'll then provide some insights on our end markets. Lastly, I'll provide an update on our sustainability journey. Overall, there was another strong quarter as demand remained healthy for our products and services. Sales rose by 20% versus the fourth quarter of 2021, better than we expected. Supply chain improvements enabled stronger-than-expected shipments, particularly in Construction Industries, and supported an increase in dealer inventories. We achieved double-digit top line increases in each of our three primary segments and saw sales growth in North America, Latin America and the EAME, while Asia Pacific was about flat. Adjusted operating profit margins increased to 17% in the fourth quarter, an all-time record, as we saw our margins improve both on a sequential and year-over-year basis. Adjusted profit per share was $3.86, which includes an unfavorable $0.41 per share of foreign currency headwind, largely due to ME&T balance sheet translation. This was caused by the rapid decline in the US dollar late in the year and reversed much of the favorable impact we saw in the first three quarters of 2022. We generated a 17% increase in total sales to $59.4 billion in the year. Services also increased by 17% to $22 billion. Adjusted operating profit margin for the full year was 15.4%, a 170 basis point increase over the prior year. Although we did not achieve our Investor Day margin targets for the year, which I'll discuss more in a moment, I'm pleased that we increased adjusted operating profit by over $2 billion and grew absolute OPACC dollars, which is our internal measure of profitable growth. For the year, we achieved adjusted profit per share of $13.84, also an all-time record. In addition, we generated $5.8 billion of ME&T free cash flow, firmly in our target range. Finally, despite the strong sales in the fourth quarter, backlog grew by $400 million in the quarter to end the year at $30.4 billion, a 32% year-over-year increase. As I've mentioned, we did see some improvement in certain areas of the supply chain in the fourth quarter. However, pockets of challenge continue, particularly with some suppliers related to Energy & Transportation and Resource Industries. Similar to previous quarters, our sales would have been higher, if not for these supply chain issues. Our global team delivered one of the best years in our nearly 100-year history, including record full-year adjusted profit per share. Despite the supply chain challenges, our team achieved double-digit top line growth and generated strong ME&T free cash flow. We remain committed to serving our customers, executing their strategy and investing for long term profitable growth. Turning to slide 4. In the fourth quarter of 2022, sales increased 20% versus last year to $16.6 billion. The increase was due to favorable price realization and volume growth, which included dealer inventory increases in growth in sales of equipment to end users. Compared with the fourth quarter of 2021, sales to users increased 8%, broadly in line with our expectations. For machines, including Construction Industries and Resource Industries, sales to users rose by 4%, while Energy & Transportation was up 19%. Sales to users in Construction Industries were up 1%, in line with expectations. As a reminder, non-residential represents approximately 75% of Caterpillar sales in Construction Industries. North American sales to users increased as demand remained healthy for both non-residential and residential despite some moderation in residential. Latin America saw higher sales to users, while EAME and Asia Pacific declined slightly in the quarter. However, excluding China, sales to users in the Asia Pacific region increased. In Resource Industries, sales to users increased 13% which was lower than anticipated, mainly due to timing issues related to outbound logistics and commissioning. The segment sales to users increased primarily due to heavy construction in quarry and aggregates. In Energy & Transportation, sales to users increased by 19%, slightly above our expectations. In the fourth quarter, oil and gas sales to users benefited from continued strength in large engine repowers. We also saw strong turbine and turbine-related services. Power generation and industrial sales to users continue to remain positive due to favorable market conditions. Transportation declined from a relatively low base, primarily due to lower locomotive deliveries, while marine was up slightly. Dealer inventory increased by about $700 million in the fourth quarter, which is above our expectations, compared to a decrease of about $100 million in the same quarter last year. As I mentioned, supply chain improvements enabled stronger-than-expected shipments, particularly in Construction Industries, and supported an increase in dealer inventories. We saw increases in each of our primary segments. And within Construction Industries, dealer inventories are now in their typical historical range of three to four months of projected sales. In Construction Industries, the largest dealer inventory increase came in North America, which had benefited our most constrained region. Over 70% of the combined year-end dealer inventory in Resource Industries and Energy & Transportation is supported by customer orders. As expected, we generated improved adjusted operating profit margin in the quarter, both year-over-year and sequentially. Our adjusted operating profit margin increased by 550 basis points versus last year to 17%, which does not include the non-cash goodwill impairment charges and restructuring costs associated with the rail division. I'll provide more detail on rail later in my remarks. Turning to slide 5. I'll now provide full-year highlights. In 2022, we generated sales of $59.4 billion, up 17% versus last year. This was due to favorable price realization and higher sales volume, driven by the impact from changes in dealer inventory, increased services, and higher sales of equipment to end users. As I mentioned, we generated $22 billion of services revenues in 2022, a 17% increase over 2021. Services growth in 2022 benefited from our ongoing initiatives and investments as well as price realization. We now have over 1.4 million connected assets, up from 1.2 million in 2021. We delivered over 60% of our new equipment with a customer value agreement and the launch of our new app called Cat Central to help drive growth in ecommerce sales to users. We also had the highest level of parts availability in our history. Overall, our confidence continues to increase that we'll achieve our $28 billion services target in 2026. Our full-year adjusted operating profit margin was 15.4%, 170 basis point increase over 2021. Although we significantly increase margins in the fourth quarter versus last year, overall, they did not improve enough for us to achieve our full-year Investor Day margin targets. Our margins in 2022 were impacted by supply chain inefficiencies, ongoing inflationary pressures within manufacturing costs and our conscious decision to continue to invest for profitable growth. As I mentioned during our last earnings call, our margin targets are progressive, which means we expect to achieve higher operating profit margins as sales increase. In a higher inflationary environment, where a relatively larger portion of the sales increase is due to price realization, there's less operating leverage, which makes the delivery of those progressive margins more challenging. Andrew will provide more information about our operating profit margin targets. Moving to slide 6. We generated ME&T free cash flow of $5.8 billion for the full year, which was in line with our investor day range of $4 billion to $8 billion. We returned $6.7 billion to shareholders or 115% of ME&T free cash flow, which included $4.2 billion in repurchased stock and $2.4 billion in dividends to shareholders. We remain proud of our dividend aristocrat status and continue to expect to return substantially all ME&T free cash flow to shareholders over time through dividends and share repurchases. Now on slide 7, I'll share some high level assumptions on our expectations moving forward. While we continue to closely monitor global macroeconomic conditions, overall demand remains healthy across our segments, and we expect 2023 be better than 2022 on both top and bottom line. Just to remind you, our internal measure of profitable growth is absolute OPACC dollars. We believe increasing absolute OPACC dollars will lead to continued higher total shareholder returns over time. We expect to achieve our updated adjusted operating profit margin targets and ME&T free cash flow target range of $4 billion to $8 billion during 2023. Now I'll discuss our outlook for key end markets this year, starting with Construction Industries. In North America, overall, we see positive momentum in 2023. We expect non-residential construction in North America to grow due to the positive impact of government related infrastructure investments, healthy backlogs and rental replenishment. Although residential construction continues to moderate due to tightening financial conditions, it remains at a healthy level. In Asia Pacific, excluding China, we expect growth in Construction Industries due to public infrastructure spending and supportive commodity prices. As we mentioned during our last earnings call, weakness continues in China in the excavator industry above 10 tonnes. We expect it to remain below 2022 levels due to low construction activities. In EAME, business activity is expected to be about flat versus last year based on healthy backlogs and strong construction demand in the Middle East, offset by uncertain economic conditions in Europe. Construction activity in Latin America is expected to be flat to slightly down versus the strong 2022 performance. In Resource Industries, we expect healthy mining demand to continue as commodity prices remain above investment thresholds. That said, our customers remained capital disciplined. We anticipate production and utilization levels will remain elevated and our autonomous solutions continue to gain momentum. We expect the continuation of high equipment utilization and a low level of park trucks, which both support future demand for our equipment and services. We continue to believe the energy transition will support increased commodity demand, expanding our total addressable market and providing opportunities for profitable growth. In heavy construction and quarry and aggregates, we anticipate continued growth, supported by infrastructure and major non-residential construction projects. In Energy & Transportation, we expect sales growth due to strong order rates in most applications. In oil and gas, although customers remain disciplined, we are encouraged by continued strength in demand in order intakes for the year. New equipment orders for solar turbines continue to be robust. Power generation orders are expected to remain healthy, including data center strength. Industrial remains healthy, with momentum continuing for 2023. In rail, North American locomotive sales are expected to remain muted. We anticipate strength in high speed marine as customers continue to upgrade aging fleets. During the fourth quarter, we took in a $925 million non-cash goodwill impairment charge related to our rail division, which is part of the Energy & Transportation segment. The impairment was primarily driven by a revision in our long-term outlook for the company's locomotive offerings. We believe opportunities exist for new locomotives, overhauls, repowers and modernizations, but at lower levels than previously forecasted and occurring over a longer time horizon. In addition to the goodwill impairment charge, we also incurred restructuring cost of $180 million in the quarter, primarily related to non-cash inventory adjustments within this division. Importantly, our rail services, including track signaling and freight car, remain robust. Private rail plays an integral part in supporting and maintaining rail infrastructure in countries around the globe and rail remains one of the most efficient ways of transporting goods across the land. We will continue to offer tier four solutions to our customers. However, strategic investments in new locomotive products will continue shifting to competitive, sustainable solutions that help customers meet their carbon reduction initiatives, including hybrid, full battery electric and alternative fuel power sources, including hydrogen. These alternative power solutions for rail will leverage modularity and scale across Resource Industries, Construction Industries, and Energy & Transportation. We believe these enterprise-wide investments will provide Caterpillar with a strategic advantage over time. Moving to slide 8. We continue to advance our sustainability journey in the fourth quarter of 2022 as we strive to help our customers achieve their climate related objectives. In November, Caterpillar announced the successful demonstration of its first battery electric 793 large mining truck prototype with support from key mining customers participating in Caterpillar's Early Learner Program. The truck performed at the same specification as a diesel truck on our 7 kilometer course, achieving a top speed of 16 kilometers per hour carrying a full load and 12 kilometers per hour with that same load at a 10% grade. In addition to the truck, we also unveiled plans to create a working and more sustainable mindset of the future at our Arizona based proving ground. This includes installing and utilizing a variety of renewable energy sources, leveraging technologies from our electric power division and new electrification and advanced power solutions division. We also invested in Lithos Energy, Inc., a lithium ion battery pack producer that manufactures battery packs for the types of demanding environments our Cat equipment thrives in. This collaboration supports our commitment to delivering robust electrified products and solutions to our customers. Lastly, in 2022, we continued to advance our autonomous journey, achieving an industry first at moving over 5 billion tons autonomously across 25 mine sites worldwide. During the fourth quarter, we announced our first autonomous solution in the aggregates industry. We'll collaborate with Lux Stone, the nation's largest family owned and operated producer of crushed stone, sand and gravel, to expand these solutions beyond mining. We'll utilize Cat MineStar Command for hauling system on 777 trucks, contributing to continued improvements in safety and productivity for our customers. These examples reinforce our ongoing sustainability leadership, and how we help our customers build a better, more sustainable world. We look forward to issuing our 18th annual sustainability report during the second quarter. With that, I'll turn the call over to Andrew.
Andrew Bonfield :
Thank you, Jim. And good morning, everyone. I'll begin by covering our fourth quarter results, including the performance by our business segments. Then I'll cover the balance sheet and ME&T free cash flow before concluding on high level assumptions for 2023, including the first quarter. Beginning on slide 9. Sales and revenues for the fourth quarter increased by 20% or $2.8 billion to $16.6 billion. The sales increase versus the prior year was due to strong price realization and volume, partially offset by currency impacts. Sales were higher than we expected as supply chain constraints eased in some areas and we were able to ship more product. Operating profit increased by 4% or $69 million to $1.7 billion as strong price realization and volume growth were mostly offset by a goodwill impairment charge, higher manufacturing costs and restructuring expenses. Our adjusted operating profit was $2.8 billion, up $1.2 billion versus the prior year, and the adjusted operating profit margin was 17.0%. This was an increase of 560 basis points versus the prior quarter due to favorable price realization and volume growth, which outpaced manufacturing cost increases. Fourth quarter margins were lower than we were targeting as well as being lower than where we needed them to be to meet our full-year Investor Day margin target. I will talk more about that in a moment. Adjusted profit per share increased by 43% to $3.86 in the fourth quarter compared to $2.69 in the fourth quarter of last year. Adjusted profit per share in the fourth quarter excluded goodwill impairment charge of $925 million or $1.71 per share related to our rail division, as Jim has explained. This charge is held at the corporate level and does not impact Energy & Transportation segment margins. Adjusted profit per share figures also exclude mark-to-market gains for the remeasurement of pension and OPACC plans and restructuring items. Restructuring costs of $209 million or $0.29 in the quarter were primarily related to non-cash inventory write-downs within our Rail division. Again, these charges impact at the corporate level and the inventory write-downs are within cost of goods sold in the income statement. For the full year, restructuring costs were about $600 million. Last quarter, we told you that a non-cash charge of approximately $600 million could slip into 2023, which it did. We expect to close on the divestiture of longwall business in early February and the non-cash charge will be included in our first quarter 2023 restructuring charges. The provision for income taxes in the fourth quarter excluding the amounts relating to mark-to-market, goodwill impairment and other discrete items reflects at a global annual effective tax rate of approximately 23%, as we had expected. Finally, our fourth quarter results including unfavorable non-cash foreign currency impact within other income and expense of $0.41 related to ME&T balance sheet translation in the quarter. To explain, many of our foreign entities are US dollar functional. These entities are generally in a net liability position, causing a favorable translation impact in periods of US dollar strength. Within each of the first three quarters, we saw some benefit as the dollar sequentially trended stronger. However, within the fourth quarter, this trend reversed. Given the significant weakening of the US dollar within the fourth quarter of 2022, the negative impact to profit was sizeable. As you would imagine, our forward-looking assumptions do not include expectations for currency fluctuations. To give a bit more context, other income and expense excluding the impact of pension mark-to-market adjustments has trended around $250 million of income per quarter for all of 2021 and for the first three quarters of 2022. This is reflected in a number of offsetting items, including currency. In the fourth quarter, excluding pension mark-to-market, other income and expense swung to a $70 million expense. The majority of that change is due to the foreign exchange translation adjustment, which is why we have highlighted this. Overall, sales were better than we had expected, as we had anticipated margins increase, but as I said earlier, not by enough to meet our Investor Day margin targets. Adjusted profit per share rose by 43%, but that was moderated by the $0.41 non-cash foreign currency balance sheet translation charge that I mentioned a moment ago. Moving on to slide 10. The 20% increase in the top line was driven by favorable price realization and higher sales volume. Volume was supported by the $800 million year-over-year impact of changes in dealer inventory and an 8% increase in sales to users. From a sales perspective, currency remained a headwind, given the strength of the US dollar. As I mentioned earlier, sales were higher than we expected in the quarter, mostly due to some improvements in the supply chain, which enables stronger shipments particularly in Construction Industries. The increase in dealer inventories reflects the improved shipments in Construction Industries and customer delivery timing in Resource Industries and Energy & Transportation. Overall market dynamics remain healthy as sales to users continued to increase and our backlog is strong at $13.4 billion. Moving to slide 11. Fourth quarter operating profit increased by 4%, impacted by the goodwill impairment charge and restructuring expenses. Adjusted operating profit increased by 78% as favorable price realization and higher sales volume continued to outpace higher manufacturing costs. Manufacturing costs increased primarily due to higher material costs and unfavorable costs absorption as we decreased our inventories in the fourth quarter compared to an increase in the prior year. Related to our recent price cost performance, keep in mind that we are still catching up from the increases in manufacturing costs, which have occurred over the last few years. In particular, material freight costs have increased by about 20% since 2020 and as full-year gross margins remain below our 2019 levels. Our fourth quarter adjusted operating profit margin of 17% was a 560 basis point increase versus the prior year. As Jim has mentioned, this is our highest ever quarterly adjusted operating margin. As I said earlier, we did not achieve our Investor Day margin targets. As Jim said, in a high inflation environment, you do not get the benefit of operating leverage that you would normally expect when sales increases are volume driven. You will recall that our margin targets are progressive, which means that the top end of the range, for every $1 billion in sales incremental revenues, we need to deliver close to 40 percentage points of that through adjusted operating profit. This is challenging to achieve in a high inflation environment when sales are increasing due to price realization designed to mitigate increases in manufacturing costs. Also, please keep in mind that we made a conscious decision to continue to invest for future profitable growth. We have not seen inflation anywhere near double digit levels since the targets were introduced in 2017. In a low inflation environment, productivity improvements can be made to offset inflationary increases, so nominal targets remain effective. In the current high inflation environment, you cannot achieve the level of productivity. So we are adjusting the target for sales range to reflect the inflationary increases we've seen in 2022. On slide 12, we've updated our margin target slope to account for the impact of inflation as depicted on the chart. We still have the same aspirations for margins. However, the corresponding level of sales and costs are generally around 9% higher than they'd have been in a non-inflationary environment. As you can see, the low end of the sales range is now $42 billion, while the top end is $72 billion. This compares to the previous bookends of $39 billion and $66 billion, respectively. The key point is that, despite the inflationary impact on sales and costs, which impact margins, our expectations for profits and cash generation have not changed and we remain focused on delivering increases in absolute OPACC dollars. Depending on the inflationary environment that we see in 2023, we'll have to revisit the range next January. Moving to slide 13, across our three primary segments, sales and margins improved in the fourth quarter versus the prior, supported by price realization and sales volume. As expected, price more than offset manufacturing costs in all three segments. Starting with Construction Industries, sales increased by 19% in the fourth quarter to $6.8 billion, driven by favorable price realization and sales volume, partially offset by currency. Volume increased primarily due to changes in dealer inventory and higher sales to users. Dealer inventory increased in the quarter compared to a reduction last year. Sales in North America rose by 34%, due mostly to strong pricing, the positive change in dealer inventory and higher sales to users. Sales in Latin America increased by 39% on strong price realization and higher sales volume, the latter due mostly to a favorable change in dealer inventory. In the EAME, sales increased by 10% on price realization and sales volume, partially offset by unfavorable currency. Sales volume was supported by positive year-over-year change in dealer inventory as the decrease in the prior year's quarter was larger than this year's decline. Sales in Asia Pacific decreased by 10%, mostly due to unfavorable currency impacts, partially offset by stronger price realization. Lower sales volume also contributed to the decline as dealers decreased inventory during the fourth quarter compared to an increase in the prior year. Fourth quarter profit for Construction Industries increased by 87% versus the prior year to $1.5 billion. Price realization and higher sales volume drove the increase. Unfavorable manufacturing costs largely reflected high material costs, unfavorable cost absorption and increased freight. The segment's operating margin of 21.7% was an increase of 780 basis points versus last year. The margin for the quarter was better than we'd expected on strong volume, price and moderating material costs. As a reminder, the fourth quarter is usually the weakest quarter for margins in construction industries, but the with the benefit of price realization, the reverse was true in 2022. Turning to slide 14. Resource Industries sales grew by 26% in the fourth quarter to $3.4 billion. The improvement was primarily due to favorable price realization and higher sales volume. Volume increased due to the impact of changes in dealer inventories and higher sales of equipment to end users. Dealer inventory increased more during the fourth quarter 2022 than the prior year due to the timing of customer deliveries, which includes the impact of outbound logistics delays and commissioning. Fourth quarter profit for Resource Industries increased by 110% versus the prior year to $605 million, mainly due to favorable price realization and higher sales volume. This was partially offset by higher manufacturing costs, primarily material, freight and volume related manufacturing costs. The segment's operating margin of 17.6% was an increase of 700 basis points versus last year, strengthening versus third quarter, as we had expected. Now on slide 15. Energy & Transportation sales increased by 19% in the fourth quarter to $6.8 billion, with sales up across all applications. Oil and gas sales increased by 38% due to higher sales of turbines and turbine related services, reciprocating engines and aftermarket parts. Power generation sales increased by 12% as sales were higher in large reciprocating engines, supporting data center applications. Sales increased in small reciprocating engines, turbines and turbine related services as well. Industrial sales rose by 19%, with strength across all regions. Finally, transportation sales increased by 6%, benefited by marine applications and reciprocating engine aftermarket parts. Rail services were offset by lower deliveries of locomotives. Fourth quarter profit for Energy & Transportation increased by 72% versus the prior year to $1.2 billion. The improvement was primarily due to higher sales volume and favorable price realization. Higher manufacturing and SG&A and R&D costs acted as partial offset. Manufacturing cost increases largely reflected high material costs and volume related manufacturing costs. SG&A and R&D expenses increased due to investments aligned with our strategic initiatives, including electrification and services growth. The segment's operating margin of 17.3% was an increase of 530 basis points versus last year, strengthening versus third quarter as we had expected. Moving to slide 16. Financial Products revenue increased by 10% to $853 million, benefited by higher average financing rates across all regions. Segment profit decreased by 24% to $189 million. The profit decrease was mainly due to a higher provision for credit losses at Cat Financial and an unfavorable impact from equity securities in insurance services. The increase in provisions reflects changes in general economic factors, rather than company specific economic factors. Despite these changes, our leading indicators remain strong. Past dues were 1.89% compared with 1.95% at the end of the fourth quarter of 2021. Also, this was an 11 basis point decrease in past dues compared to the third quarter of 2022. Retail new business volume declined versus the prior year, but remained steady compared to the third quarter. As I mentioned last quarter, Cat Financial is not seeing slowing business activity, but continues to see strong competition from banks due to higher interest rates and more customers willing to pay cash for their machines. Used equipment demand remains strong, with inventories at historically low levels. We continue to see high conversion rates as well, as customers choose to buy at the end of the lease term. Now on slide 17. ME&T free cash flow in the quarter increased by about $1.2 billion versus the prior to $3 billion. The increase was primarily due to higher profit. On working capital, our inventory decreased by about $600 million in the quarter. Improved availability of some components benefited shipments as we decreased our work-in-process inventory. We also saw strong shipments of solar turbines in the quarter. We repurchased about $900 million of common stock in the quarter and paid around $600 million in dividends. As Jim mentioned, we generated $5.8 billion in ME&T free cash flow for the year, inclusive of CapEx of about $1.3 billion. We are pleased with the strong free cash flow we generated in a year where we paid $1.3 billion in short term incentive compensation and increased our inventories by over $2 billion. Our liquidity remains strong with an enterprise cash balance of $7 billion and another $1.5 billion and slightly longer-dated liquid marketable securities, which generate improved yields on that cash. Now on slide 18. I'll share some high level assumptions for the full year, followed by the first quarter. As we begin 2023, demand remains constructive given the strong order backlog and improving supply chain dynamics, although we do not expect the benefit of a dealer inventory tailwind like we saw last year. As a reminder, dealer inventory rose by $2.4 billion in 2022. Around 40% of the increase related to Construction Industries, with the balance reflecting the timing of deliveries to customers in Resource Industries and Energy & Transportation. As Jim mentioned, about 70% of the combined end dealer inventory in Resource Industries and Energy & Transportation is supported by customer orders. For the full year 2023, we anticipate increased sales supported by price realization. Although we expect stronger sales to users in 2023, the headwind from the $2.4 billion dealer inventory build in 2022 will moderate volume growth. Our planning assumption is that we do not expect a significant change in dealer inventory by the end of the year. We do expect service sales momentum to continue after reaching $22 billion in 2022. From a sales seasonality perspective, we expect a more typical year with lighter first quarter for total sales. For the full year, we expect our adjusted operating profit to increase, reflecting higher sales, and we expect to be within our updated adjusted operating margin ranges. Pricing actions from 2022 will continue to roll into 2023, and we will evaluate future actions as appropriate to offset inflationary pressures. We currently expect to see a moderation of input costs inflation as the year progresses, and therefore a corresponding moderation in price realization as we move through the year. Price, though, should still more than offset manufacturing costs for the year. Increases in SG&A and R&D expenses are expected to exceed the benefit of lower short term incentive compensation expense this year as we continue to invest in strategic initiatives, such as services growth and technology, including digital, electrification and autonomous. Below operating profit, we anticipate a headwind of approximately just over $800 million or about $80 million per quarter in other and income and expense at the corporate level related to pension expense due to higher interest costs, given higher interest rates. This is a non-cash item. For the full year of 2022, the strengthening US dollar acted as a tailwind of $189 million relating to the ME&T balance sheet translation impact that I spoke about earlier. This would not recur if the weakening we've seen in rates thus far continues. Based on current rates, we'd see a headwind of around about $80 million in the first quarter. Remember that 2022 was not a typical year for us as margins increased sequentially through the year as the benefit of price realization was stronger in the second half of the year. Also, manufacturing volumes were impacted by supply chain issues, which did impact absorption rates from quarter to quarter. These factors will mean that we do not expect to return to our normal seasonal margin patterns in 2023. Moving on, we expect to achieve our ME&T free cash flow target of $4 billion to $8 billion for the year, with CapEx in the range of about $1.5 billion. We'll have about a $1.4 billion cash outflow in the first quarter related to the payout of last year's incentive compensation, slightly higher than we saw in the first quarter of 2022. We anticipate restructuring expenses of around $700 million this year, the majority of which is related to the long haul divestiture charge that I mentioned earlier. Finally, we anticipate a global effective tax rate of 23% excluding discrete items. Now on to our assumptions for the first quarter. In the first quarter compared to the prior year, we expect sales to increase on price and slightly stronger volume, reflecting higher sales to users. With regard to dealer inventory, we expect a typical seasonable build in the first quarter of this year. As a reminder, dealers increased inventories by $1.3 billion in the first quarter of 2022, and we expect a lower build in the first quarter of 2023. Sales should increase across the three primary segments in the first quarter versus the prior. Compared to the fourth quarter, we anticipate lower sales in the first quarter at the enterprise level, following our typical seasonal pattern. We expect lower sales sequentially in each of our three primary segments as well. To provide some color. Construction Industries is following an abnormally strong fourth quarter, where shipments exceeded our expectations. Resource Industries had a strong fourth quarter, with its highest quarterly shipments since 2012, and expects lower sequential sales in the first quarter due to the timing of shipments which, as you know, can be lumpy. Energy & Transportation sales should be sequentially lower as well, following normal seasonal patterns. Keep in mind that solar turbines had a strong fourth quarter. Specific to the first quarter versus the prior year, keep in mind that first quarter margins last year were very low. We expect substantially strong enterprise and segment margins in the first quarter on favorable price and volume. Price realization should more than offset manufacturing costs above the [Technical Difficulty] primary segment levels as well. Also, we could see headwinds related to pension and currency below operating profit, as I have just mentioned. Compared to the fourth quarter of 2022, we expect adjusted operating profit margins to be flattish to down for the first quarter of the year at the enterprise level. Keep in mind that our fourth quarter of 2022 adjusted operating profit margins were our highest quarterly margins ever. By segment, in Construction Industries, we normally see higher margins in the first quarter. However, coming off a very strong fourth quarter, we expect lower volume to weigh on margin sequentially. This is the business which usually drives the enterprise-wide sequential margin improvement from the fourth quarter to the first. Similarly, lower volumes should drive sequentially lower margins in Resource Industries. And in Energy & Transportation, we expect lower margins sequentially following a strong fourth quarter, which is the normal pattern for this business. Turning to slide 19. Let me summarize. Sales grew by 20%, led by strong price realization and volume gains across three primary segments. The adjusted operating profit margin increased by 560 basis points to 17%. ME&T free cash flow was strong at $3 billion for the quarter, and we continue to return cash to shareholders on a consistent basis. Service revenues were $22 billion for the full year, a 17% increase as momentum built in 2022. The outlook remains positive with improving supply chain dynamics and the backlog up around $400 million to over $30 billion. We've updated our margin target scope to account for the impact of inflation on sales and costs and we expect our 2023 adjusted operating margins to be within our updated range. Despite the inflationary impact on sales and costs, our expectations for profit and cash flow generation have not changed, and we will continue to execute our strategy for long term profit growth. I want to confirm that full-year 2022 restructuring costs were about $300 million for the year. So apologies if we made an error in the call. Now, I'll hand over to questions.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions]. Your first question comes from the line of Mig Dobre with Baird.
Mircea Dobre:
Just wanted to appreciate all the color on dealer inventory. I guess it looks to me like about a billion dollars of the build is in construction. A good chunk of that is in North America. And retail sales here have been, call it, flattish over the past three quarters or so. So I guess I'm curious, as you think about Q1 and you think about that seasonal inventory build, where do you expect that to occur? Is the channel stocked enough in North America construction? And how comfortable are you with dealers actually being able to put through this inventory to end users in 2023?
James Umpleby III:
We typically see an increase ahead of the spring selling season. So that's why we think it'll be a traditional kind of increase. We've talked about what we see happening in the various markets again, the strength in infrastructure, which is 75% of CI. It's a moderation in residential in North America, as we discussed. But again, North America really had been our most constrained region. So we're pleased to see healthier dealer inventories in North America. And we're now in that typical range of three to four months. And again, we've talked about the fact that RI and E&T typically don't hold a lot of dealer inventory, hoping to get an order. Over 70% of the year-end dealer inventory for RI and E&T is tied to customer orders.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Rob Wertheimer with Melius Research.
Rob Wertheimer:
I'm going to ask about turbines within E&T. Obviously, the global energy mix is shifting on nat gas to Russia and so forth. Are you able to say – the orders have been strong, I assume related partly to that. Is the solution sort of already in the pipeline for solar? Or there are a lot of projects underway and/or under consideration, they expect to keep that segment elevated for the next several years?
James Umpleby III:
Rob, it's always tough to make a multi-year prediction. But I will say that order rates are quite strong for solar, as is quotation activity. And of course, solar is very involved in the natural gas value chain, compressing a lot of gas to LNG facilities for export around the world. There has been an under investment, I'd argue, in oil and gas over the last few years and that is starting to be reversed now, and that has a positive impact on both our Cat oil and gas business and our solar business. So again, very difficult always to make a multi-year projection, not knowing what's happening in the economy. But based on what we see today, business is quite strong for solar, both on the services side and on the new equipment side. And one of the things we have seen, there was a – for a while there, after the decline in oil prices a few years ago, we saw a decline in international projects. That's picked up for solar. So we're seeing more international projects. We're also seeing strength in North American gas compression for solar as well.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Jamie Cook with Credit Suisse.
Jamie Cook:
I guess my question, can you talk for 2023 where's your opportunity to put through incremental price and where you see deflation? And the question just comes from, Jim, just the incremental margins that you've put up in the fourth quarter were fairly impressive. So I'm just wondering how big sort of the price cost tailwind can be in 2023 with the strong pricing actions and supply chain easing and potentially deflation in some areas.
James Umpleby III:
Well, Jamie, certainly, when we think about price actions, we take a number of things into account. Certainly, we take into account the increases from our suppliers in cost. We also, of course, pay very close attention to competitive market and always striving to provide more value to our customers. So it's difficult for us to make a prediction as to what will happen. And we demonstrated the ability to pass along price when we need to because of inflationary factors. But again, we always keep competition in mind as well. So again, pleased at how we're doing so far and the way we're managing that balance.
Andrew Bonfield:
As I think we've said from a planning assumptions perspective, obviously, there is some carryover price impacting us, in particular in the first half of the year. As we expect to go through the year, we expect that benefit of price to moderate in the second half. But also, we expect the increases in manufacturing costs to continue to moderate as we go through the year. But, obviously, that's a planning assumption. And as always the case, that is predicated on the assumption that input inflation does moderate. And as Jim said, we'll obviously keep an eye open on that and take pricing actions accordingly.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Jerry Revich with Goldman Sachs.
Jerry Revich:
I'm wondering if you'd just talk about your production plan in Construction Industries? What are you folks looking for in terms of decision to potentially curtail production if we do continue to see dealer inventory builds ahead of expectation? Just if you could just touch on the key indicators that you're looking at and how can we gradually affect that production slowdown if that's indeed what we need to do over the course of 2023?
James Umpleby III:
Certainly, again, we obviously pay very close attention to what's happening in the marketplace. We pay attention to STUs. Dealers or independent businesses make their own decisions about inventory. But, certainly, we do work with them. And the last thing we want to do is to have too much inventory in the channel. As it occurs today, as we mentioned earlier, we're now back in our normal typical range. And still, we still have many dealers that would like more equipment from us to support customer orders. So we talked about the fact that non-resi is 75% of Construction Industries. And it is still quite robust and strong, and we expect it to grow. Yes, some moderation in residential. But, again, 75% is non-resi. So, again, as we always do, we'll pay close attention to the market and we'll modify our production plans as appropriate. But there are still some products that we need to produce more of, quite frankly, and we're still dealing with some supply chain issues in some areas. So it's not a one size fits all answer. We talked about the fact that China is slow and we expect it to continue to be slow, below 2022 levels, but in many areas demand is still quite strong.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of David Raso with Evercore.
David Raso:
My question relates to the first quarter guidance. Normal seasonality on sales, EBIT margins usually go up a couple hundred basis points. That's sort of a $4.50 EPS number. What you're implying is a little closer to $4. The margins, in particular, you mentioned pension, and I know CI is at a high level. So the comp is tough sequentially. But on price cost, what are you assuming on price cost first quarter versus fourth quarter, if you could just give us some color. It's just to see the margins flat to down sequentially, even with a tough comp, is a bit unique. And just if you could help us flesh out sort of the price cost.
Andrew Bonfield:
And part of the reason why I highlighted that CI margins were actually very, very high in the fourth quarter, part of that was because normally, in the fourth quarter, you don't see a dealer inventory build as big as we did see in the fourth quarter and the fact that that release did help overall CI margins come in a little bit better than we expected as well. Obviously, what that does mean is, normally – yes, correct, we normally get a 200 to 300 basis points bump in the first quarter based on production and ramping up production. Obviously, those production rates aren't quite the same as they would normally be fourth quarter to first quarter because, obviously, we're looking at a very different profile, particularly given that, obviously, we were building production through 2022, particularly in CI. So that is the biggest challenge and that's probably the biggest single factor which will drive margins sequentially lower. On price cost, we still expect strong price in Q1. It will not be as big as Q4 for the simple reason we are lapping price increases that we put through at the beginning of 2022. So that will be coming down slightly, but we do expect price cost to be favorable for the first half of the year. Again, that's just going to create a little bit of noise in the margin structure quarter-on-quarter. Unfortunately, we are not going to go back to the normal lower margins in Q1, higher margins in Q4, which you guys are going to be able to model is going to still be a little bit different as we go through 2023. Obviously, 2022 was the opposite.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Tami Zakaria with J.P. Morgan.
Tami Zakaria:
I'm trying to understand the volume commentary for this year. Since you expect sales to end users to be stronger this year versus last year, but you don't expect dealer inventory stocking benefit. Does that mean dealer inventory could actually decline again from current levels to support the stronger sales to end users?
Andrew Bonfield:
No, that's an assumption at the moment, Tami. At the moment, as a planning assumption, as is always the case, the dealer inventories will be flattish for the year and should not increase or decrease. Effectively, what that does mean, though, is obviously the headwind exists from our shipments on the $2.4 billion of dealer inventory that got built in 2022. Remind you, a big chunk of that, around about 60% is in E&T and in RI, which is related to customer orders, which will be fall through into sales to end users in due course. But overall, we expect, again, sales to users to be up year-over-year and the dealer inventory headwind will moderate that level of increase the volume that we will see in our shipments, as I said in my remarks.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Michael Feniger with Bank of America.
Michael Feniger:
Just following up on the solar comments in the oil and gas portfolio. E&T was a dominant driver of earnings seven to eight years ago with leading margins for Cat. It's one of the only segments you're not getting that double digit pricing right now. It's lagged the others. Do you see room for that to pick up following this reversal of underinvestment the last few years? And is there anything structurally keeping Cat from returning to those prior peak margins in E&T?
James Umpleby III:
You may recall that we put through price increases later in E&T than we did with machines just based on the market dynamics that existed at the time. So having said that, as I mentioned, particularly in oil and gas and power generation, market is quite strong. And we expect our volumes, certainly in oil and gas, to increase. And we're dealing with in kind of oil and gas still some supply chain challenges. So we're dealing with that. That factor was your ramp up. So, our, again, I mentioned earlier, very strong fourth quarter, but still very robust order rates coming in and a lot of quotation activity. So, again, we do expect that E&T to improve in 2023. And I won't try to compare it to where they were a few years ago. I'm going to say that the business is strong and improving.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Nicole DeBlase with Deutsche Bank.
Nicole DeBlase:
I just wanted to dig into the manufacturing cost side of the price cost equation. It sounds to me, reading through the comments you made in response to an earlier question, that you still expect manufacturing costs to be a headwind year-on-year in 2023. Can you just kind of talk through the big components of that, materials versus freight, and why we shouldn't expect at some point in 2023 for manufacturing costs to become a tailwind?
Andrew Bonfield:
There's a couple of factors, obviously, that come into that. Material costs will still be a headwind, we expect. Some of that is material is cost inflation that we're still seeing through this year. Some of that material cost inflation is not just necessarily commodity costs. Some of it will be labor cost and some of it will include energy costs. So, all of those factors we are anticipating will moderate as we go through the year. We are starting to see signs of lower levels of requests for price increases coming from suppliers. So that's a positive sign. And hopefully, as things unwind through the year, some of that will moderate. Again, we have not – in our planning assumptions, we base our pricing actions on what we're assuming from a manufacturing cost perspective. And obviously, we'll take action as appropriate if we need to, if there are greater increases than we're currently expecting in manufacturing costs in 2023.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Chad Dillard with Bernstein.
Chad Dillard:
In China, I know you mentioned that you're expecting levels to be below 2022, at least on the end market perspective, but maybe you could talk about just what you're seeing in your – in the channel from an inventory perspective relative to, I guess, normalized levels? And then, how should we think about the business, now that you have the GX series for a full China's cycle.
James Umpleby III:
Again, just to reiterate, we had a couple of really strong years in China in 2020, 2021. And we had saw softening in 2022. And again, we don't see signs of improvement at this point. We continue to invest in new products to try to maintain our competitiveness with new products. So that's continuing. And we've been pleased with the response to those new products, including the GX. But that above 10 ton excavator market, we do expect to be weaker in 2023 than it was in 2022. And the inventory in the fourth quarter versus the build in the prior year is lower.
Andrew Bonfield:
Yeah. So we actually had a reduction in dealer inventory in Asia-Pac this year in CI versus a build in the previous year.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Timothy Thein with Citi.
Timothy Thein:
Jim, maybe just a follow-up on the just mining outlook within RI, the point about the miners being capital disciplined, which has been in place for some time, but just on the back of what appears to be strong results and outlook from a competitor in Asia overnight, maybe just say a bit more about kind of the outlook and your views on the mining piece of RI for 2023.
James Umpleby III:
We've been talking for a number of years in our earnings call about what we expect in the mining industry, which was moderate growth year-on-year. And as opposed to what we saw going back, thinking about 10 or 12 or 15 years ago, where we saw some wild cycles up and down, and really I believe that's a function of our mining customers remaining capital disciplined. And that's a very positive thing, I think, for them and for us, and what we've been saying for a number of years now in our earnings calls, that we expect a year-over-year moderate increase. And that's exactly the way it's playing out. So we're very encouraged by our quotation activity with customers, the conversations that are going on. We have a strong backlog, which we feel good about. Parked trucks remained at low levels. There's high utilization of equipment. And customers make decisions on a whole variety of factors as to whether or not they're going to rebuild or they're going to buy new trucks and we benefit from either one of those things. We're very encouraged by our autonomous solution. And we firmly believe we have the best solution in the industry. And that's been demonstrated by the decision, the purchasing decisions that our customers are making. And as a reminder, of course, RI also includes quarry and ag, which trends there are positive as well. A lot of that's driven by infrastructure spending and anticipated infrastructure spending. So, again, we feel good about the mining business. Again, quotation activity is very strong and we're having very good conversations with customers.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Matthew Elkott with Cowen.
Matthew Elkott:
I was hoping you guys can provide us with some more insight into the strength you're seeing in the Middle East. And related to that, but longer term, Saudi Arabia has big plans in both construction and, more recently, mining. Are there any meaningful incremental opportunities for you guys there?
James Umpleby III:
I believe we mentioned in our prepared remarks that EAME, which is Europe, Africa and the Middle East, is expected to be about flat. And we said that strength in the Middle East is offsetting some uncertainty in Europe. So, certainly, when oil prices are elevated, that tends to provide the investment capabilities for customers in the Middle East, it's for oil and gas business or for construction. So, again, it is certainly a bright spot and a positive one and one that we feel will continue through 2023.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Steven Fisher with UBS.
Steven Fisher:
Just curious what was different about the supply chain in construction, which sounded like it's pretty smooth versus E&T and Resource, which sounded like were still a little challenging? Is it just still the randomness that's out there? And then last quarter, you talked about some of the manufacturing inefficiencies due to supply chain? Just curious how that played out in Q4 and what you expect for that in 2023?
James Umpleby III:
Certainly, we have a diverse group of suppliers and a diverse product line and we did see some improvement in the quarter, but there are still some areas of strength. And it's very different product by product. And even though you'll see a number of suppliers in better shape, all it takes is one component to prevent you from shipping an engine or machine. And part of it's just the nature of the beast, I think, as to what's happening in various industries. And if we look at our large engines, it's more of a struggle, frankly, than it is with some of our construction machines at the moment. And these things ebb and flow over time. But that's where we are today. We still see some semiconductor availability challenges. I know with the higher end chips, that's improved significantly in the industry based on industry reports, but for the semiconductors that we use, it continues to be a challenge. And so, in the fourth quarter, we certainly did still experience inefficiencies associated with supply chain challenges. And that had an impact on us because we're still doing things like workarounds. And it's not anywhere near as smooth as it needs to be.
Andrew Bonfield:
I think if you look out for the rest of the year, what we do expect is, obviously, we start to lap those in the second half of the year, those inefficiencies. So we should either see a moderation or actually a reversal of some of that supply chain inefficiency we saw in the second half of the year.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Kristen Owen with Oppenheimer.
Kristen Owen:
I wanted to follow up on the services growth. You reported now $22 billion, on track to meet that $28 billion target by 2026? Can you just talk to us about some of the growth drivers in that business and maybe provide us with an update on customer value agreement take rates?
James Umpleby III:
Again, we are encouraged, as I mentioned, about our progress and services. And we mentioned, when we threw that target out that it wouldn't be a straight line, it wouldn't be linear. And we knew we had to make investments to make it happen. And we are continuing to invest in a whole variety of things. We've gotten more connected assets now, 1.4 million, up from 1.2 million last year. We're investing significantly in our ecommerce capabilities. That's one more arguably, I'd argue, we were a bit behind. But we made great progress and very proud of what the team is doing there. And those sales are increasing. To answer your question on customer value agreements, over 60% of new equipment in 2022 was delivered with a CVA. And that's really important because it creates that customer touch point and it gives us the ability to demonstrate that value that we can provide. And also, we're investing heavily in AI. We have what are called prioritized service events. So what that does is allows us to give dealers a lead on aftermarket service and repair in advance. And it provides value to our dealers, of course, but it also provides value to our customers because it allows them to avoid unplanned downtime. So, that's really positive as well. Also, we're working on parts availability. We need to have the right parts at the right place at the right time. And that's one of the benefits of having connected assets and also utilizing AI with those connected assets to ensure that we anticipate where those parts will be needed. And that's a key enabler as well.
Ryan Fiedler:
Operator, we have time for one more question.
Operator:
Your final question today comes from the line of Steve Volkmann with Jefferies.
Steve Volkmann:
My question is on inventory. The Cat inventory on your balance sheet was up $2.2 billion or something roughly in 2022? And I'm sure some of that was price. But is there an opportunity to sort of draw that back down as supply chains improve? Or are we in sort of a new reality where we need a little bit higher inventory because of the vagaries of all the supply chains and international trade, et cetera.
James Umpleby III:
We're not running as lean as I would like us to be. And certainly, that is a consequence of the supply chain challenges we're having. And like I mentioned in previous calls, the term decommit is one that I hadn't been familiar with until COVID hit and where customers in a very short notice decommit and don't give us components when we need them. And so, that's created inefficiencies. It's also resulted in more inventory. So, I wouldn't say it's a permanent condition. As the supply chain situation improves, I do expect us to become leaner again and to be able to reduce our internal inventory.
James Umpleby III:
All right. And thank you all for joining us. I really do appreciate your questions. Just to summarize here, I'm very proud of our global team. They delivered one of the best years we had on record. Strong overall top line growth. Services grew 17%. We generated strong adjusted operating profit and ME&T free cash flow in the year. And we achieved an all-time record for adjusted profit per share. As we think about the year, we're encouraged by the strong quotation activity, our $30 billion backlog, and as we mentioned, we believe 2023 will be an even better year than 2022 on both the top and bottom line. And we continue to remain focused on supporting our customers and executing our strategy for long-term profitable growth. Again, thank you for your questions.
Ryan Fiedler:
Thank you, Jim, Andrew, and everyone who joined us today. A replay of our call will be available online later this morning. We'll also post a transcript on our Investor Relations website as soon as it's available. You'll also find a fourth quarter results video with our CFO and an SEC filing with our sales to users data. Click on investors.caterpillar.com and then click on financials to view those materials. If you have any questions, please reach out to Rob or me. The investor relations general phone number is 309-675-4549. We hope you enjoy the rest of your day. Now I'll turn it back to Emma to conclude the call.
Operator:
Thank you so much for attending today's call. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Welcome to the Third Quarter 2022 Caterpillar Earnings Conference Call. Please be advised that today’s conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Ryan Fiedler. Thank you. Please go ahead.
Ryan Fiedler:
Thank you, Emma. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Caterpillar’s third quarter of 2022 earnings call. I’m Ryan Fiedler, Vice President of Investor Relations. Joining me today are Jim Umpleby, Chairman and CEO; Andrew Bonfield, Chief Financial Officer; Kyle Epley, Senior Vice President of the Global Finance Services Division; and Rob Rengel, Senior IR Manager. During our call today, we’ll be discussing the third quarter earnings release we issued earlier today. You can find our slides, the news release and a webcast recap at investors.caterpillar.com under Events & Presentations. The content of this call is protected by U.S. and international copyright law. Any rebroadcast, retransmission, reproduction or distribution of all or part of this content without Caterpillar’s prior written permission is prohibited. Moving to Slide 2. During our call today, we’ll make forward-looking statements, which are subject to risks and uncertainties. We’ll also make assumptions that could cause our actual results to be different from the information we’re sharing with you on this call. Please refer to our recent SEC filings and the forward-looking statements reminder in the news release for details on factors that individually or in aggregate could cause our actual results to vary materially from our forecast. A detailed discussion of the many factors that we believe may have a material effect on our business on an ongoing basis is contained in our SEC filings. On today’s call, we’ll also refer to non-GAAP numbers. For a reconciliation of any non-GAAP numbers to the appropriate U.S. GAAP numbers, please see the appendix of the earnings call slides. In addition, the appendix includes a calendar of expected earnings dates in 2023, starting with January 31 for our fourth quarter call. Today, we reported profit per share of $3.87 for the third quarter of 2022, compared with $2.60 of profit per share in the third quarter of 2021. We’re including adjusted profit per share in addition to our U.S. GAAP results. Our adjusted profit per share was $3.95 for the third quarter of 2022 compared with adjusted profit per share of $2.66 for the third quarter of 2021. Adjusted profit per share for both quarters excluded restructuring costs. Now, let’s turn to Slide 3 and turn the call over to our Chairman and CEO, Jim Umpleby.
Jim Umpleby:
Thanks, Ryan. Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us. As we close out the third quarter, I want to thank our global team for delivering another good quarter, including strong top line growth, higher operating profit margins and robust ME&T free cash flow despite continuing supply chain challenges. Our third quarter results reflected healthy demand across most end markets for our products and services. We remain focused on executing our strategy and continue to invest for long-term profitable growth. In today’s call, I’ll begin with my perspectives on our performance in the quarter, and then I’ll provide some insights on our end markets. Lastly, I’ll provide an update on our sustainability journey. Turning to Slide 4. Overall, it was a very strong quarter. Sales increased 21%, in line with our expectations. Operating profit improved by 46%, although the margin improvement of 280 basis points was slightly less than we had anticipated. The sales growth was led by price realization and volume growth. Sales were higher in all regions with double-digit increases in each of our three primary segments. Services growth momentum continued in the third quarter as a result of our services initiatives and investments. Similar to previous quarters, our top line would have been even higher if not for ongoing supply chain constraints. We generated strong operating profit margin improvements in the quarter, both on a year-over-year and sequential basis. The adjusted operating profit margin was 16.5%. Adjusted profit per share increased 48% to $3.95. We generated robust ME&T free cash flow of $2.1 billion. Our backlog continued to grow. It increased by $1.6 billion in the quarter and is now $30 billion. Compared with the third quarter of 2021, sales to users increased 7%. For machines, including Construction Industries and Resource Industries, sales to users increased by 2%, while Energy & Transportation was up 22%. Timing of deliveries from dealers to customers resulted in sales to users that were slightly below our expectations. Sales to users in Construction Industries were about flat. North American sales to users were up slightly. Dealer inventories in North America remained at relatively low levels due to healthy demand and supply chain constraints. Latin America experienced higher sales to users, while EAME declined slightly. Asia-Pacific sales to users were down in the quarter. However, excluding China, sales to users in the Asia-Pacific region increased. In Resource Industries, sales to users increased 10% with increases in mining as well as heavy construction and quarry in aggregates. In Energy & Transportation, sales to users increased by 22%. Oil and gas sales to users benefited in the third quarter from continued improvement in reciprocating engines. Turbines and turbine-related services were about flat. Power generation and industrial sales to users remained strong due to favorable market conditions. Transportation increased from a relatively low base, primarily on strength in marine and international locomotives. Dealer inventory increased by about $700 million in the third quarter compared to a decrease of about $300 million in the same quarter last year. Most of the increase relates to timing differences between when we ship products to dealers and when the dealers in turn are able to deliver completed orders to customers. Although, the rise in dealer inventory was greater than our expectations, inventories remain near the low end of the typical range. As I mentioned, adjusted operating margins improved by 280 basis points to 16.5%. Strong price and volume offset increases in manufacturing costs in SG&A and R&D expenses. Manufacturing cost increases reflected continued higher material and freight costs and manufacturing inefficiencies caused by supply chain disruptions, resulting in our margins for the quarter being slightly lower than we had anticipated. Moving to Slide 5. We generated $2.1 billion of ME&T free cash flow in the quarter. We repurchased $1.4 billion of stock and returned about $600 million in dividends to shareholders. We remain proud of our dividend aristocrat status and continue to expect to return substantially all ME&T free cash flow to shareholders over time through dividends and share repurchases. Now on Slide 6. I’ll share some high-level assumptions on our expectations moving forward. While we continue to closely monitor global macroeconomic conditions, overall demand remains healthy across our segments. We expect top line growth in the fourth quarter both year-over-year and sequentially. This expected performance reflects healthy demand and favorable price realization. We anticipate sales increases across our three primary segments as order levels and backlogs remain strong. As a reminder, dealers have been focused on supplying customer orders, and we’ll look to replenish aging rental fleets over time when the supply chain situation improves. We expect adjusted operating profit margins to be significantly higher in the fourth quarter versus the prior year and slightly higher than in the third quarter. However, we now anticipate that our full year margins will be at the low end or slightly below the low end of the Investor Day target range. The headwind is primarily due to ongoing manufacturing efficiencies related to supply chain constraints, ongoing inflationary pressures within manufacturing, cost and our conscious decision to continue to invest for profitable growth. That said, we expect to achieve our Investor Day ME&T free cash flow target range of $4 billion to $8 billion. Now, I’ll turn to our outlook for key end markets. Residential construction generally accounts for about 25% of sales in Construction Industries while non-residential is the remainder. In North America, residential construction is moderating due to tightening financial conditions but remains at relatively high levels. We expect non-residential construction in North America to strengthen, supported by the impact of government-related infrastructure investments. In Asia-Pacific, excluding China, we expect moderate growth due to higher infrastructure spending and commodity prices. As we mentioned last quarter, weakness continues in China in the excavator industry above 10 tons. It is expected to remain below the 2019 levels due to low construction activity. In EAME, business activity is expected to be flat to slightly down versus last year based on uncertain economic conditions in Europe. However, strong backlogs and announced infrastructure plans limits the decline. Construction activity in Latin America is expected to grow due to supportive commodity prices. In Resource Industries, our mining customers continue to exhibit capital discipline. However, commodity prices remain supportive of continued investment despite trending lower recently. We expect production and utilization levels will remain elevated, and our autonomous solutions continue to gain momentum. I’ll highlight an example in a moment. We expect the continuation of high equipment utilization and a low level of park trucks, which both support future demand for our equipment and services. We continue to believe the energy transition will support increased commodity demand, expanding our total addressable market and provided opportunities for profitable growth. In heavy construction and quarry and aggregates, we anticipate continued growth in the fourth quarter. In Energy & Transportation, we expect continued sales momentum in the fourth quarter due to strong order rates in most applications. In oil and gas, although customers remain disciplined, we are encouraged by continued strength in reciprocating engine orders especially for large engine repowers as asset utilization increases. New equipment orders for solar turbines have strengthened significantly, particularly in oil and gas, indicating sales growth in late 2022 and into 2023. Solar services revenue is expected to remain steady. We expect a strong fourth quarter, which is typical of our – which is typically our highest sales quarter of the year for Solar. Power generation orders remain healthy due to positive industry dynamics and continued data center strength. Industrial remains healthy with continued momentum in construction, agriculture and electric power. In rail, North American locomotive sales are expected to remain muted. We also anticipate growth in high-speed Marine as customers continue to upgrade aging fleets. Moving to Slide 7. As we continue to advance our sustainability journey through the third quarter of 2022, Caterpillar, Cat Dealers and our customers announced a number of projects that will help contribute to a lower carbon future. I’ll highlight two today. In late August, we announced a significant step in this journey when BHP Group Limited, Caterpillar and Finning International announced an agreement to replace BHP’s entire haul truck fleet at the Escondida Mine in Chile, the world’s largest copper producing mine. We will replace one of the industry’s largest mixed fleet that is currently comprised of over 160 haul trucks with new Caterpillar 798 AC electric dry haul trucks. Deliveries begin in 2023 and will extend over 10 years. The new electric drive trucks will feature technology that delivers significant improvements in material moving capacity, efficiency, reliability and safety. The agreements allow BHP to accelerate the implementation of its autonomy plans by transitioning the fleet to include technology that enables autonomous operation. In addition, the agreement set forth a path for BHP to meet its decarbonization goals through the progressive implementation of zero-emission trucks. Second, we’re currently displaying four battery electric machine prototypes bauma in Munich, Germany, including mini and medium excavators, a GC medium wheel loader and a compact wheel loader. Each machine is powered by Caterpillar battery prototypes and includes onboard AC chargers. We also plan to offer an offboard DC fast charging option. Leveraging our deep system integration experience, the batteries are scalable to industry and customer performance needs and maximize sustainability throughout their life cycle, including recycling and reuse at the end of life. The Caterpillar design batteries in these machines will also be available to power other industrial applications highlighting our ability to leverage technology across the enterprise. With that, I’ll turn the call over to Andrew.
Andrew Bonfield:
Thank you, Jim, and good morning, everyone. I’ll start by walking you through our third quarter results, including the performance of our segments. Then I’ll discuss the balance sheet and ME&T free cash flow before concluding as usual with our expectations for the fourth quarter and full year. Beginning on Slide 8. Sales and revenues for the third quarter increased by 21% or $2.6 billion to $15 billion. The increase was due to strong price realization and volume partially offset by currency impacts. Operating profit increased by 46% or $761 million to $2.4 billion as price realization and volume growth were partially offset by higher manufacturing and SG&A and R&D costs. Our adjusted operating profit margin of 16.5%, increased by 280 basis points versus the prior year’s quarter as the impact of price realization and volume growth outpaced continued manufacturing cost increases. Adjusted profit per share increased by 48% to $3.95 in the third quarter compared to $2.66 last year. Adjusted profit per share for both quarters excluded restructuring costs, which were $0.08 per share this quarter compared to $0.06 in the prior year. In total, taxes benefited profit per share by about $0.06 per share for the quarter. During the third quarter of 2022, we reached a settlement with the U.S. Internal Revenue Service that resolves all issues for tax years 2007 through 2016. We are pleased to have settled the audit without any penalties and within our reserves. The settlement includes, amongst other issues, the resolution of disputed tax treatment of profits earned by Caterpillar SARL in certain parts transactions. The final tax assessed by the IRS for all issues under the settlement was $490 million for the 10-year period. [Indiscernible] this was paid in the third quarter of 2022 and the associated estimated interest of $250 million is expected to be paid by the end of the year. The settlement was within reserves, and the company recorded a discrete tax benefit of $41 million to reflect changes in estimates of prior year taxes and related interest, net of tax. Now on Slide 9. The top line increased by 21% on strong price realization and volume and our currency was a headwind within the strong U.S. dollar. Overall, sales were about as we expected. Regarding volume, the largest benefit versus the prior year was a $1 billion favorable quarter-over-quarter change in dealer inventory. Sales to users increased by 7%. While there is continued uncertainty regarding the macroeconomic backdrop, demand indicators remain supported as sales to users increased by 7%. Backlog grew by $1.6 billion to $30 billion and dealer inventory remains at the low end of the typical range. As we’ve seen in recent quarters, the dealer inventory increase was primarily due to issues resulting from the timing of deliveries from dealers to customers and delays in the commissioning machines as a result of labor shortages and dealers. The main impact was that sales to users was slightly lower than expected, with the corresponding offset increase in dealer inventories. As both Jim and I have indicated, we believe that the majority of this is timing and is not an indicator of changing market dynamics. Dealer inventories remained at the low end of the typical range. Moving to Slide 10. As I mentioned, third quarter operating profit increased by 46% on favorable price realization and volume. Price realization was in line with our expectations and was supported by healthy demand. Manufacturing costs continue to increase versus the prior year, primarily due to material and freight cost increases as well as manufacturing inefficiencies due to supply chain constraints. Overall, the impact of favorable price realization exceeded manufacturing costs for the quarter. Finally, SG&A and R&D costs increased primarily due to investments aligned with our strategy for profitable growth, which included services growth and technology such as digital, electrification and autonomy. Our third quarter adjusted operating profit margin of 16.5% was a 280 basis point increase versus the prior year. The impact of price actions accelerated so price realization was strong. Although, we began to let the significant increases in material and freight costs seen in the second half of last year, we are still seeing cost increases from suppliers for materials in particular. Finally, related to our recent price cost performance, keep in mind that we are still catching up from the increases in manufacturing costs, which have occurred over the last few years. In particular, material and freight costs have increased by about 20% since 2020. Our gross margin of 28.5% for the third quarter is now only just getting back in line with the levels seen in the third quarter of 2019, despite sales and revenues being higher. Moving to Slide 11. As we expected, segment sales and margins improved in the third quarter. Starting with construction industries, sales increased by 19% to $6.3 billion, driven by favorable price realization and sales volume, partially offset by currency. Volume increased primarily due to changes in dealer inventories, which increased in the quarter compared to a reduction last year. Sales in North America rose by 29% due mostly to strong pricing and a favorable change in dealer inventory. Dealers in North America decreased their inventories in the third quarter of last year, whilst we saw some build this year. North American dealer inventories still are very low, which impacts their ability to supply the region. Sales in Latin America increased by 51% on strong price realization, higher sales of equipment to end users, and a favorable impact due to changes in dealer inventories in both EAME and Asia/Pacific, sales were relatively flat. A strong price realization was offset by currency. Third quarter profit for construction industries increased by 40% to $1.2 billion versus the prior year. Price realization and higher sales volume drove the increase as price more than offset manufacturing costs. Unfavorable manufacturing costs largely reflected high material and freight costs in addition to manufacturing inefficiencies. The segment’s operating margin of 19.3% was an increase of 280 basis points versus last year. Turning to Slide 12. Resource Industry sales grew up 30% in the third quarter to $3.1 billion. The improvement was primarily due to favorable price realization and higher sales volume. Volume increased due to the impact of changes in dealer inventories, higher sales of aftermarket parts and higher sales of equipment to end users. Third quarter profit for Resource Industries increased by 81% to $506 million. As price realization more than offset manufacturing costs, which largely reflected high material freight and manufacturing inefficiencies. The segment’s operating margin of 16.4%, was an increase of 460 basis points versus last year. Now on Slide 13. Energy & Transportation sales increased by 22% to $6.2 billion with sales up across all applications. While in gas sales increased by 22% due to higher sales of reciprocating engine aftermarket parts and engines used in well servicing applications and gas compression. Power generation sales increased by 31% as sales increase for both turbines and reciprocating engines as data center activity remains strong. Industrial sales rose by 22% with strength across all regions. Finally, transportation sales increased by 9% on reciprocating engine aftermarket parts and relative strength in our marine applications. International locomotive deliveries also benefited sales. Third quarter profit for Energy & Transportation increased by 32% to $935 million. The improvement was primarily due to favorable price realization and higher sales volume, partially offset by higher manufacturing and SG&A and R&D costs. As anticipated price realization narrowly offset manufacturing costs. Manufacturing cost increases larger reflected high material and freight costs coupled with manufacturing inefficiencies. Also, SG&A and R&D expenses increased due to investments aligned with our strategic initiatives, including electrification and services growth, in addition to high short-term incentive compensation expense. Segment’s operating margin of 15.1% was an increase of 120 basis points versus last year. Moving on to Slide 14. Financial Products revenue increased by 7% to an $819 million, benefiting from higher average financing rates in North America and Latin America. Segment profit increased by 27% to $220 million. The profit increase was mainly due to a favorable impact from a lower provision for credit losses at Cat Financial. Moving to our credit portfolio, our leading indicators remain strong. Past dues are good proxy for the financial health of our customers were 2.00% compared with 2.41% at the end of the third quarter of 2021. We also saw a 19 basis points decrease in past dues compared to the second quarter of this year. Retail new business volume did decline compared to the record levels in the prior year. However, at this point, Cat Financial is not seeing slowing business activity but is instead impacted by strengthening competition from banks. This is typical in a realizing interest rate environment as banks benefit from a lower cost of funds, especially due to customer deposits. Finally, used equipment demand remains strong as elevated prices have stabilized and inventories remain low. Now on Slide 15. ME&T free cash flow in the quarter increased by about $1.2 billion versus the prior year to $2.1 billion. The increase was primarily due to higher profit and favorable networking capital. We did continue to build production inventory to support shipments and mitigate component delivery delays and increase of about $1 billion versus the second quarter. Cumulatively, ME&T free cash flow year-to-date is $3.8 [ph] billion, despite the increase in inventories and the payment of incentive compensation in the first quarter of 2022. Looking ahead, we continue to expect to achieve our Investor Day ME&T free cash flow target between $4 billion and $8 billion for the full year. As Jim mentioned, we paid around $600 million in dividends in addition to repurchasing about $1.4 billion worth of common stock, supporting our objective to be in the market on a more consistent basis. Enterprise cash was $6.3 billion, about a $300 million increase compared to the second quarter 2022. The increase was primarily driven by higher free cash flow. Our liquidity remains strong as we continue to hold some of our cash balances in slightly longer dated liquid marketable securities in order to improve the liquidity to improve the yield on that cash. Now on Slide 16. I will share some thoughts on the fourth quarter and the full year. As a reminder, the third quarter was generally in line with our expectations on the top line, and while margins were better than the prior, they were marginally lower than we had anticipated. Pricing gain momentum against a backdrop is stronger demand, while manufacturing costs increase on continuous inflationary cost headwinds for our suppliers and manufacturing inefficiencies due to the ongoing disruption to the supply chain. We also continue to invest for future profitable growth. Looking ahead, we anticipate the fourth quarter will reflect our highest quarterly sales for the year, which is in line with typical seasonality. Compared to the prior year, highest sales to users and price realization should support the top line growth. At year end, we expect deal inventories to remain at similar levels as they ended in the third quarter. We also expect sales increases across the three primary segments both year-over-year and sequentially. Infrastructure spending should continue to benefit our segments over time as non-residential building accelerates and large projects commence. On margins, we should see slightly higher adjusted operating margins in the fourth quarter compared to the third on higher volume and continued pricing momentum. We do anticipate the manufacturing cost increases, including manufacturing inefficiencies, will act as a partial offset. At the segment level, we expect to see similar margins to the strong third quarter performance in construction industries. In Resource Industries and Energy & Transportation margins should strengthen compared to the third quarter and prior year. Compared to last year, all three primary mid segments should benefit from price realization and higher volume. We expect price realization to more than offset manufacturing costs across our three primary segments in the fourth quarter. Finally, to assist you with your modeling, we continue to expect our accrual for short-term incentive compensation expense of about $1.6 billion this year. CapEx is expected to be about $1.4 billion. We anticipated global effective tax rate of around 23%, slightly lower than previously expected due to changes in the geographic mix of profits from a tax perspective. Finally, restructuring charges expect to be up to $800 million for the full year. There's a possibility that the largest item, which is a non-cash charge of approximately $600 million relating to divestiture may slip into 2023. So turning to Slide 17. Let me summarize. Sales grew by 21% led by strong price realization and volume gains across all the segments. The adjusted operating profit margin increased by about 280 basis points to 16.5%. ME&T free cash flow was strong at $2.1 billion and we continued to retain cash to shareholders on a consistent basis. The outlook remains positive with sales to users up 7% and the backlog up $1.6 billion to $30 billion. We continue to execute our strategy for long-term profitable growth. And with that, we'll take your questions.
Operator:
As a reminder, management asks that you limit to one question per analyst. If clarification is desired, please rejoin the queue. Your first question comes from the line of Rob Wertheimer with Melius Research. Your line is now open.
Rob Wertheimer:
Thanks and good morning, everybody.
Jim Umpleby:
Good morning, Rob.
Andrew Bonfield:
Good morning, Rob.
Rob Wertheimer:
My question is going to be – hey, my question is going to be on price and competition and I guess future market share. Your price is extremely strong. Your margins will come back strong with it from the outside backlog looks very, very good as do orders. And I'm just curious if you can see your competition following your price increases. If your general market share trends are up, down, if you could give any comment on what you think the balance will be? Thank you.
Jim Umpleby:
Well, thanks Rob for your question. We're always focused on remaining competitive in the markets that we serve around the world, and we certainly factor that into all pricing decisions. It's not a one size fits all situation. We do pay attention to the different dynamics and the different markets we serve. We are comfortable with our competitive position. Again, it's always something that we focus on, so…
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Stephen Volkmann with Jefferies. Your line is now open.
Stephen Volkmann:
Great. thank you. Good morning, everybody.
Jim Umpleby:
Good morning.
Andrew Bonfield:
Good morning, Steve.
Stephen Volkmann:
My question is on the cost side and Andrew, I think you mentioned a couple of times of your $1.1 billion increase in manufacturing costs, some portion of that was related to unfavorable productivity from all the supply chain issues. And I'm wondering if you can maybe ballpark kind of how much of that it would be? And is there any reason not to think that productivity just sort of gets better and normalizes once supply chains are normal?
Andrew Bonfield:
Yes, Steve as we – as I indicated effectively manufacturing costs was slightly adverse to our expectations. That was why margins overall came in slightly lower than we had anticipated. Most of that is due, and it is a relatively small, this as a result of manufacturing inefficiencies. We don't break down manufacturing costs for a number of reasons. They do vary and all the buckets do vary quarter-on-quarter, but you are absolutely correct. Once we get past the supply chain bottleneck, we do believe these inefficiencies will normalize. For example, they may be including things like additional labor in the factories which are there to help support out of process work as we keep continuing to make sure we get machines out as quickly as possible. That will normalize when supply chain changes on normal. So we will expect that to moderate over time as we go forward.
Stephen Volkmann:
Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of David Raso with Evercore. Your line is now open.
Jim Umpleby:
Hi, David.
Andrew Bonfield:
Hi, David.
David Raso:
Hi. I'll let you answer this sort of open-ended question, however, you choose. I mean, it looks like if you get normal seasonality third quarter to fourth quarter on your revenues, sort of the way you're discussing the margins. You're pretty close to $4 a share for the quarter. And I know fourth quarter's usually a little higher than the average quarter. But given what you're seeing in the backlog, your end market commentary prior discussion about price cost and so forth. What are the things that we should think about to not look at that $4 number as a bit of a run rate going into 2023 for quarterly earnings power? Thank you.
Jim Umpleby:
Yes, David, of course, as you can imagine here in this call, we're not going to talk about 2023 and what our expectations are for profit. But again, we are pleased at the way that the team performed in the year. And we talked about the fact that we still have supply chain struggles that we're dealing with, but we also have strong demand across most of our end markets.
Andrew Bonfield:
And David, as we consistently said this year, it is an unusual year from a shape of earnings perspective, because normally as you know, we start the year very strong from a margin perspective and margins move downwards as we go through the year. This year that is actually inverting the other way. So obviously that is part of that which we'll have to come back to when we talk about 2023, how the shape of that year will look as a result of those changes in market dynamics. So – and I'll remind you that obviously the fourth quarter is our highest – normally our highest quarter from a revenues perspective. That's consistently been the way for Caterpillar.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Jamie Cook with Credit Suisse. Your line is now open.
Jamie Cook:
Hi, good morning.
Jim Umpleby:
Hi, Jamie.
Andrew Bonfield:
Good morning, Jamie.
Jamie Cook:
Good morning. Sorry to touch on 2023 again, but I'm just trying to think through as well. You think about Volkmann’s question on inefficiencies going away and ask those question on the $4 per quarter runway. I guess the other thing is we think about 2023 dealer inventories are still exceptionally low and the rental fleet is also aged. So as you look at 2023, assuming the macro holds, would you expect to get dealer inventories back to more normalized levels and replenish the rental fleet, which would also sort of be additive to 2023? Thank you.
Jim Umpleby:
Yes, and so much depends, Jamie, of course, on what happens with the supply chain. And as you mentioned, what happens with demand as well. If in fact supply chain situation improves and we're not making a prediction at this point. We've started to see some pockets of improvement and other areas remain very challenged. But if in fact supply chain situation improves, one would expect dealers would try to get their inventories including rental fleets up to a more typical level. But again, so much depends upon the two big variables there are supply chain and of course what happens in the end markets in terms of demand.
Jamie Cook:
Okay, Thank you.
Jim Umpleby:
You bet.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Michael Feniger with Bank of America. Your line is now open.
Jim Umpleby:
Hi, Michael.
Andrew Bonfield:
Hey, Michael.
Michael Feniger:
Hey, good morning. You have highlighted for some time the growth in resources even when customers are constraining with their mining CapEx budget and being disciplined there. I'm curious, Jim, how you see that evolving with energy CapEx budgets when we dig into that oil and gas energy side. There's some signs that rig counts flattening discussion of more disciplined CapEx just within your energy portfolio. What do you see the most strength in that backdrop as we go into 2023? Thank you.
Jim Umpleby:
Well, certainly, as we mentioned, we do see our customers displaying capital discipline. However, we do see as I mentioned in my prepared remarks, a lot of strength in oil and gas. I mean, reciprocating engines is an area of strength. Solar turbines, their order rates have improved quite substantially, which should help us in 2023. So one of these to keep in mind, of course, is that customers need to maintain oil and gas production to maintain a certain level of production requires continued investment to just to maintain a flat level of production. And so, again, we are certainly encouraged by the signs that we see in terms of the order rates that are coming and based on the conversations we're having with customers. We feel good about our prospects there.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Tim Thein with Citigroup. Your line is now open.
Jim Umpleby:
Hi, Tim.
Andrew Bonfield:
Hi, Tim.
Tim Thein:
Hi, good morning. Thanks. Just maybe another one back on the manufacturing cost. And again, I get it, there's a ton of pieces within that. But maybe we just circle back on the point about material and freight. Especially on the freight side, we've seen more real time, some fairly significant declines there. Obviously that doesn't impact you the next day, but what kind of lagged relationship would there be or should we expect? Again, just as we think about some fairly significant declines here in recent months, especially on the freight side and when that potentially begins to impact Cat. Thank you.
Jim Umpleby:
Yes, Tim, thanks. I mean, actually, the biggest single factor that we are focused on rather than actually just pricing a freight at the moment is actually utilization of freight, because one of the challenges has been actually the amount of freight we've had to use in order to get components around to actually build machines. That's been probably the bigger driver of some of the increase that we've seen. The second part is, yes, you are correct. Freight and spot rates are coming down. We tend to contract normally six to 12 months in advance. So we have not yet seen the benefit of those lower rates. And those lower rates are some things we are favorable on, for example, roll on, roll off. We're actually favorable to the current market, but obviously container freight is coming down as well. So we’re seeing some favorability on that in the spot market. Obviously, we’ll expect some of that to flow through as we move into 2023.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Jerry Revich with Goldman Sachs. Your line is now open.
Jerry Revich:
Yes. Hi, good morning, everyone.
Jim Umpleby:
Good morning, Jerry.
Andrew Bonfield:
Good morning, Jerry.
Jerry Revich:
Jim, really interesting to hear you talk about full year margins at the low end of your Analyst Day range considering how good the results were versus consensus expectations this quarter. I’m wondering if you could talk about to get to the mid-point of the range? Is it as simple as the pricing actions that are already locked in? Or are there other discrete steps that you’re planning in any of the businesses to get you to the targeted levels. I guess based on the 2023 list prices that you folks have in place, it feels like pricing should be accelerating further into the first quarter. So I’m wondering, does that get you to where you want to be? Thanks.
Jim Umpleby:
Thanks for your question. One of the things to keep in mind is that our margin targets are progressive, which means that we need to achieve higher operating margins as sales increase. And in a moderate inflationary environment, which we saw for many years, sales increases typically are led by higher volumes and the benefit of the operating leverage associated with those higher volumes helps us achieve our progressive margins. In the environment where we are in today, where a relatively larger portion of the sales increase is due to price realization. There’s less operating leverage, which makes the delivery of those progressive margins more challenging to achieve. So part of it is just a math issue in terms of where the sales increase comes from? Is it primarily volume? Or is it primarily price and the impact on operating leverage. Having said that, our focus is closing out the year as strongly as possible in the fourth quarter. But that’s really the issue. It’s the issue around just the math and the assumptions that we made around our margin targets when we set them.
Jerry Revich:
Thanks.
Jim Umpleby:
You bet.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Stanley Elliott with Stifel. Your line is now open.
Jim Umpleby:
Hey, Stanley.
Stanley Elliott:
Hey, good morning, everyone. Thank you all for the question.
Andrew Bonfield:
Good morning.
Stanley Elliott:
One quick question. You mentioned if supply chain gets a little bit better, you start to see the dealer inventory piece kind of square back up a little bit into next year. Even if we do get a supply chain improvement, will you still be below kind of what would be normal historical levels at the dealer inventory? Just curious how to think about that. Thanks.
Jim Umpleby:
Yes. It really depends on the specifics of what happens to demand, what happens to how much does the supply chain ease. There’s really so many variables there that it’s difficult to predict. Again, as we look at our dealer increase we just had, the inventory increase you just had, most of the increases related to timing differences between when we ship products to dealers and when they actually complete orders to customers. So again, we look forward to next year, it depends on demand. It depends on how much the supply chain eases and a number of other issues.
Andrew Bonfield:
Yes. And just to remind you that dealers are independent businesses, so they make their own decisions about the inventory is not something we can control. So they will actually build it based on what they – their expectations of the outlook as well.
Stanley Elliott:
Okay. Thanks.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Chad Dillard with Bernstein. Your line is now open.
Jim Umpleby:
Hi, Chad.
Andrew Bonfield:
Good morning, Chad.
Chad Dillard:
Hi, good morning, guys. So I have actually a bit of a longer-term question. Just going back to your 160 truck win with BHP and Escondida mine. I’m just trying to understand, just like how does electrification change your gross profit TAM across those vehicles versus internal combustion and just trying to think through the puts and takes as those deliveries start to trickle through in the second half of next year.
Jim Umpleby:
Yes. So the profitability around diesel engine versus batteries. There’s a lot of puts and takes there. And again, we are still working our way through what our services model would be and all that. We are excited about the opportunities that exist. And one of the things that we believe positions us very well is the fact that we have an energy and transportation segment, which allows us to have additional opportunities with our mining customers to help them get the site ready. So just to resolve any confusion, the trucks that we start shipping next year for that mine will not be 100% battery trucks. So I think that was inherent in your question. So they’re diesel electric trucks. Just to clarify that and that can be a misunderstood my statement.
Chad Dillard:
Thank you.
Jim Umpleby:
You bet.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Steven Fisher with UBS. Your line is now open.
Jim Umpleby:
Hi, Steve.
Steven Fisher:
Good morning. So given the lingering manufacturing inefficiencies that you’re still experiencing, I’m curious how you’re planning process for 2023 is comparing or is going to compare to your process for 2022, really thinking about the supply chain that you’ve had another year of lessons learned. I’m curious what you think you can do differently for 2023 to further enhance your production capacity and flow?
Jim Umpleby:
We’re working closely with our suppliers and as I think all companies are doing, thinking about our supply chain, and certainly, resilience is very important. And of course, given the capital-intensive nature of our business and our suppliers, it isn’t easily to make changes quickly, but we are working closely with our suppliers trying to ensure that we have second sources and as many cases. In most instances, we’re doing things in our factories as well to really try to anticipate issues that are happening. There’s no single magic button that we can push to make these issues go away. Again, it really comes down to our teams and our factories working to be creative to find ways to mitigate disruptions and again, working with our suppliers to try to get as much supply as we can get.
Andrew Bonfield:
And then from a planning side, obviously, one of the things we do is we do various scenarios. And obviously, yes, we do look at what’s happened, looking at that, try to then work through what the implications of that would be on production levels and how we would manage through that and then obviously trying to build in at the same time, demand signals. So it’s a very dynamic process. It’s one that most large companies, as you would imagine, go through. The complexity for us is just the scope and scale of Caterpillar. In that obviously, you’ve got running this through 100-odd plants and so forth. So it is a lot of work and people are working very hard as we speak, getting ready through for the 2023 planning cycle.
Steven Fisher:
Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Kristen Owen with Oppenheimer. Your line is now open.
Jim Umpleby:
Good morning, Kristen.
Kristen Owen:
Hi, good morning.
Andrew Bonfield:
Good morning, Kristen.
Kristen Owen:
Hi, wanted to come back to your comments about the backlog offsetting media weaker mainly. One of the focus in Europe has been around the energy crunch impact on industrial activity but I’m wondering if there’s any sort of commentary you can provide as to whether or not you’re seeing it contribute favorably to your business. Maybe in the form of energy security investments or energy asset hardening. Any commentary that you can provide there would be helpful.
Jim Umpleby:
If we step back and think about it from a global macro perspective, certainly, the increased investment in oil and gas benefits our business and that’s been driven by a whole variety of issues. The situation in Europe is only one of them. But as an example, if in fact the U.S. looks to export more LNG as an example, Caterpillar participates across a wide portion of that natural gas value chain where engines are used for drilling, our engines, reset engines drive ship compressors for gas gathering. We’re very involved at the well servicing side now with our acquisition from where oil and gas, we play a larger portion there. Our solar gas turbines driving our [indiscernible] natural gas compressors compress gas down the pipelines. So as an example, there is a drive for more LNG. Again, that that would benefit our business. So again, a lot – there are a lot of factors there that are driving, of course, the dynamics in the oil and gas business. But our participation there, again, I believe, stands to benefit from just the increased investment that most believe will happen over the next few years.
Andrew Bonfield:
And then just always as a reminder, any move to further renewables is benefits us and particularly in our mining business, again as a result of the increased need for commodities in order to help with that transition. So ultimately, that does have benefits. Because the other thing just to remind you is there are some infrastructure initiatives in Europe which are obviously helping to keep some level of demand going. Obviously, the macro is obviously, as you know, and as we spoke a little bit negative, but obviously, those are offsetting benefits for us.
Jim Umpleby:
Yes, great example is the HS2 project in the UK, right, where a lot of Caterpillar equipments being used. So infrastructure in Europe is important. And a lot of that, of course, is government support.
Kristen Owen:
Thank you.
Andrew Bonfield:
Emma, are you there?
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Matt Elkott with Cowen. Your line is now open.
Matt Elkott:
Good morning. Thank you. And if I may take it back to North America. I know you guys have touched on the unfavorable trends in residential construction in recent quarters. But I’d love to hear your thoughts on how the current housing downturn feels relative to prior housing downturns from perspective? In other words, the impact you’ve seen so far on your equipment business this year relative to a similar point of the housing cycle downturn. I know that’s probably not super easy to gauge, but any thoughts would be helpful.
Jim Umpleby:
Yes, it’s difficult to make a comparison to prior situations. But of course, we’ve been in a situation where the demand for our products that support residential housing has been very strong. So we’ve had very high order levels. We have talked about some softening there, but one of the things to keep in mind is, of course, that residential only represents about 25% of CI sales and the rest is non-residential. And non-residential remains more resilient due to – for a whole variety of subjects and certainly, they’re more reasoning to rate increases, just to do capital planning cycles. Think about all the investments that are being made by governments around infrastructure, so that helps as well. But honestly, I don’t have a good answer for your question in terms of how this compares to previous slowing in residential. Again, there’s lots of predictions as to how that will play over the next few years. But again, demand for our products in CI at a macro level still remains quite robust.
Matt Elkott:
Great. Thank you very much.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Larry DeMaria with William Blair. Your line is now open.
Larry DeMaria:
Thanks. Good morning. Relates to the prospects of oncoming recession, are you seeing any concerns out there yet aside from residential? Obviously, overall, orders are pretty strong. And are you doing anything to prepare now for one or is it more or less wait and see, considering the backlog is strong and it’s low inventory?
Jim Umpleby:
Yes. But certainly, we continue to closely monitor the global macroeconomic environment. Part of our – the strategy we laid out in 2017 was a competitive and flexible cost structure. So we’ve demonstrated the ability to take action when we need to take action. Having said that, as we sit here today, we continue to see healthy demand across most of our end markets. I mean we have strong orders. Our dealer inventory remains towards the low end of the typical range. So again, we have demonstrated the ability to have a flexible cost structure and direct quickly when we need to. Think about 2020 a year when COVID hit, we had a pandemic induced significant decline in our sales. We still met our margin targets that year. So again, we know what to do. But as we sit here today, even though we’re watching things very closely, we continue to see healthy demand across most of our end markets.
Larry DeMaria:
Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of John Joyner with BMO Capital Markets. Your line is now open.
John Joyner:
Hey, good morning.
Jim Umpleby:
Hey, John.
John Joyner:
Thank you for taking my – good morning. So I hate to pile on the manufacturing inefficiencies. But I guess how would you characterize the constraints today versus, say, six months ago, a year ago or earlier this year was a 10 with 10 being the worst, what would it be today? I mean I’m just trying to gauge how much things have improved or not? And maybe are there any areas that might not ever normalize?
Jim Umpleby:
Yes. I wouldn’t say that there aren’t areas that won’t normalize. So it’s a mixed bag. So in certain areas, we still have real challenges. And again, the supply chain in certain areas have gotten a bit better. But in terms of manufacturing efficiencies, if anything, they’ve gotten a bit worse as opposed to getting better in the last quarter.
Andrew Bonfield:
Yes. And in terms of value, they are higher now than they were in Q2 and Q1. And obviously, that is something we’re monitoring and keeping a very close eye on most of the manufacturing inefficiencies. It’s not just how the process works. It is actually labor related. And part of that is obviously in an environment where we still see strong demand signals. You don’t want to – even though your labor may be slightly higher than you would need for the level of production you’ve got you will actually keep those people working in the plants because there’s plenty for them to do. So that is the main cause of inefficiency that we’re seeing today.
John Joyner:
Okay. That’s helpful. Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Seth Weber with Wells Fargo. Your line is now open.
Seth Weber:
Hey, good morning, everybody. Good morning. I just wanted to follow up on that last question. On this – there’s been a lot of questions and answers about the supply chain. But can you just maybe share what your partners are telling you about 2023? I understand you may want to handicap what they’re telling you, but are they directionally telling you things are going to get better in the first half? Is it second half? Are you getting any indications to the supply chain that things should be moving in the right direction for next year? Thank you.
Jim Umpleby:
Yes. Honestly, it is a mixed bag. Caterpillar, as you know, has a very diverse product line, and we have a very diverse group of suppliers, thousands of suppliers around the world, and there isn’t one answer there. So we continue to see semiconductor availability challenges are impacting things like engine control modules, which have an impact on many of our products. So that’s still a challenge even though, certainly, we follow what happens in the semiconductor industry, and we’ve read about some of the improvements for the ones that we use. And again, those that go into ECMs, that’s still a bit of a challenge. My sense is that – so many suppliers that are struggling now are quite reluctant to make any kind of predictions because many people have made predictions since we’ve gone into the situation that have proved to be wrong about improvement. So again, what we’re doing is working with them as closely as we can to help them get as much supply out as they can. And as we mentioned earlier, to try to mitigate the impact of those shortages in our factories and that’s really our focus.
Ryan Fiedler:
Hi, Emma. This is Ryan. We’ve got time for one more question.
Operator:
Excellent. Today’s final question comes from the line of Tami Zakaria with JPMorgan. Your line is now open.
Jim Umpleby:
Hi, Tami.
Tami Zakaria:
Hi. How are you? Thank you for taking my question. So based on the orders you’re taking and the backlog you’re clearing, any comments on what pricing may look like next year? Because it seems like you’re going to get double-digit pricing this year. Should double-digit pricing sustain at least to the first half of next year as we run through the backlog?
Jim Umpleby:
Yes. So again, as we think about any pricing actions for next year, obviously, we’re always are focused on maintaining our competitive position in the market and we think about that in terms of any future pricing decisions.
Andrew Bonfield:
As regards the run rate, obviously, just to highlight, we’re not talking about 2023 yet, but just think about the fourth quarter. We are actually wrapping some price increases that we saw in the third quarter – fourth quarter of last year. So we will see slight moderation of price in the fourth quarter, still very strong. Obviously, that will help us as we move into 2023. But obviously, as Jim said, we’re not yet into that situation where we have a plan that we can give you. And obviously, competitive positioning is obviously critical as part of that.
Jim Umpleby:
You bet. Thank you. And thanks all of you for your questions. Just one more time to thank our global team for performing very well in a challenging environment, increasing sales by 21%. As we mentioned, our backlog and sales to users increased, which are positive demand indicators as we look ahead. Adjusted operating profit margins improved by 280 basis points. We expect a strong fourth quarter with sales and margin improvement in addition to continued strong cash flow. And of course, we remain focused on executing our strategy for long-term profitable growth. Again, thanks to all of you.
Ryan Fiedler:
Great. Thank you, Jim, Andrew and everyone who joined us today. A replay of our call will be available online later this morning. We’ll also post a transcript on our Investor Relations website as soon as it’s available. You’ll also find a third quarter results video with our CFO and an SEC filing with our sales to users data. Click on investors.caterpillar.com and then click on Financials to view those materials. If you have any questions, please reach out to Rob or me. The Investor Relations general phone number is (309) 675-4549. We hope you enjoy the rest of your day. And now I’ll turn it back to Emma to conclude the call.
Operator:
This concludes today’s conference call. Thank you for attending. You may now…
Operator:
Welcome to the Second Quarter 2022 Caterpillar earnings conference call. Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Ryan Fiedler. Thank you. Please go ahead.
Ryan Fiedler:
Thank you, Emma. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Caterpillar's Second Quarter of 2022 Earnings Call. I'm Ryan Fiedler, Vice President of Investor Relations. Joining me today are Jim Umpleby, Chairman and CEO; Andrew Bonfield, Chief Financial Officer; Kyle Epley, Senior Vice President of the Global Finance Services Division; and Rob Rengel, Senior IR Manager. During our call today, we'll be discussing the second quarter earnings release we issued earlier today. You can find our slides, the news release and a webcast recap at investors.caterpillar.com under Events and Presentations. The content of this call is protected by U.S. and international copyright law. Any rebroadcast, retransmission, reproduction or distribution of all or part of this content without Caterpillar's prior written permission is prohibited. Moving to Slide 2. During our call today, we'll make forward-looking statements, which are subject to risks and uncertainties. We'll also make assumptions that could cause our actual results to be different than the information we're sharing with on this call. Please refer to our recent SEC filings and the forward-looking statements reminder in the news release for details on factors that individually or in aggregate could cause our actual results to vary materially from our forecast. On today's call, we'll also refer to non-GAAP numbers. For a reconciliation of any non-GAAP numbers to the appropriate U.S. GAAP numbers, please see the appendix of the earnings call slides. Today, we reported profit per share of $3.13 for the second quarter of 2022 compared with $2.56 of profit per share in the second quarter of 2021. We're including adjusted profit per share in addition to our U.S. GAAP results. Our adjusted profit per share was $3.18 for the second quarter of 2022 compared with adjusted profit per share of $2.60 for the second quarter of 2021. Adjusted profit per share for both quarters exclude restructuring costs. Now let's turn to Slide 3 and turn the call over to our Chairman and CEO, Jim Umpleby.
Jim Umpleby:
Thanks, Ryan. Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us. As we close out the first half of 2022, I want to thank our global team for delivering another good quarter with double-digit top line and adjusted profit per share growth despite ongoing supply chain challenges. Our second quarter results reflect healthy demand across most of our end markets. We remain focused on executing our strategy for long-term profitable growth. In today's call, I'll begin with my perspectives on our performance in the quarter and then I'll provide some insights on our end markets. Lastly, I'll provide an update on our sustainability journey. For the quarter, sales were broadly in line with our expectations as we generated better-than-expected price and strong services revenue, which were offset by lower-than-expected sales to users. Similar to previous quarters, our top line would have been even stronger, if not for supply chain constraints. We remain focused on executing creative solutions to help mitigate our supply chain challenges. Overall, we remain encouraged by the strong demand in our end markets for our products and services. We're seeing strong momentum in services due to our service initiatives and investments. As I mentioned at our Investor Day in May, our confidence is increasing that we'll achieve our goal to double services to $28 billion by 2026. Operating profit margins came in slightly lower than our expectations, mostly due to lower-than-expected volume and unfavorable mix. Price realization more than offset manufacturing cost increases, which occurred earlier in the year than we had anticipated. However, this is -- this only partially offset the impact of volume and mix. Dealer inventory remains at the low end of the typical range and rental fleets continue to age as dealers prioritize trying to meet the demand from retail customers. Orders remained solid and our backlog grew by approximately $2 billion in the quarter. We expect a volume and price realization to improve in the second half of the year, which should lead to sales growth in the remaining quarters of the year, both sequentially and year-over-year. We also expect adjusted operating profit margins will improve both sequentially and year-over-year in the second half of 2022 as our price realization will more than offset manufacturing cost increases. Despite ongoing inflation and supply chain challenges, we continue to expect to achieve our Investor Day adjusted operating profit margin and ME&T free cash flow targets for the full year. Moving to Slide 4. Sales and revenues increased by 11%, broadly in line with our expectations. The increase was primarily driven by strengthening price realization and higher sales volume. Second quarter sales and revenues increased across our three primary segments versus the prior year, with sales higher in all regions, except EAME. Sales in North America rose by 18%, with double-digit growth in the three primary segments. Strength in Latin America continued as 27% sales growth was supported by strong construction activity. In EAME, sales decreased by 3%, primarily due to currency impacts. Asia Pacific sales increased by 3% as lower sales in China were more than offset by stronger sales elsewhere within the region. Compared to the second quarter of 2021, sales to users declined 3%. For machines, including Construction Industries and Resource Industries, sales to users decreased by 4%, while Energy & Transportation was flat overall. Sales to users were below our expectations largely due to the impact of supply chain constraints. These constraints were mostly due to component shortages, which resulted in production delays and shortfalls against our schedules. For example, engine control modules have continued to be one of the most significant bottlenecks mostly due to the shortage of semiconductors. We were unable to completely satisfy strong customer demand for our machines and engines and continue to incur additional costs due to factory inefficiencies and freight expenses. Sales to users in Construction Industries decreased 4%, primarily due to weakness in China and continued supply chain constraints. North America sales to users declined slightly, mainly due to supply chain challenges. Latin America saw higher sales to end users, while EAME declined slightly. Asia Pacific sales to users were down in the quarter. However, excluding China, the Asia Pacific region, sales to users increased. The same holds true for Construction Industries overall. In Resource Industries, sales to users decreased 2% due to supply chain challenges and one-off disruptions, including commissioning delays. Orders remained strong, although slightly lower than recent high levels. We continue to see high equipment utilization and parked trucks remain at low levels, both supporting continued demand for our equipment and services. In Energy & Transportation, sales to users were flat versus the prior year. Oil and gas sales to users were down in the second quarter due to lower turbine and turbine-related services, which were partially offset by continued improvement in reciprocating engines. As we mentioned during our last earnings call, we expected solar turbines new equipment shipments to be lower in the first half. Power generation and industrial sales to users remained strong due to favorable market conditions. Transportation decreased slightly. Now I'll spend a moment on dealer inventory. Dealer inventory declined by about $400 million in the second quarter, reflecting typical seasonality similar to the second quarter of last year. Dealer inventories remain near the low end of the typical range and we continue to work closely with our global dealer network to satisfy customer demand. As a reminder, dealers are independently owned businesses. Operating profit increased 9% in the quarter to $1.9 billion. The increase was driven by higher sales across our three primary segments, which largely reflected favorable price realization and volume and was partially offset by higher manufacturing costs and SG&A and R&D expenses. High manufacturing costs in the quarter reflected increased material and freight costs. As I mentioned, favorable price realization more than offset manufacturing cost increases. Operating profit margins were 13.6% in the second quarter of 2022 compared to 13.9% in the second quarter of last year. Although our adjusted operating profit margins improved sequentially in the quarter, they were slightly lower than our expectations, mostly due to lower-than-expected volumes and unfavorable mix. Andrew will discuss the consolidated and segment level margins in a few minutes. Our profit per share was $3.13 versus $2.56 in the second quarter of 2021. The adjusted profit per share was $3.18 versus $2.60 in the second quarter of last year. Now to Slide 5. We generated $1.1 billion of ME&T free cash flow in the quarter. We continue to expect to be within our $4 billion to $8 billion ME&T free cash flow range for the full year 2022. Andrew will discuss this in more detail. Regarding capital deployment. In the quarter, we repurchased $1.1 billion of stock and returned $600 million in dividends to shareholders. In May, our Board approved a new authorization to repurchase an additional $15 billion of common stock, which was effective on August 1. We also announced we're increasing our quarterly cash dividend by 8% to $1.20 per share. We remain proud of our dividend aristocrat status. We continue to expect to return substantially all of our ME&T free cash flow to shareholders over time through dividends and share repurchases. Now on Slide 6, I'll share some high-level assumptions on our expectations for the full year. Overall demand remained healthy across our segments. However, the environment remains challenging, primarily due to continuing supply chain disruptions. Our teams are working hard to mitigate the supply chain challenges, and we expect to achieve our Investor Day targets for adjusted operating profit margins and ME&T free cash flow. We expect continued top line growth for the second half of the year, reflecting healthy demand, favorable price realization and our team's persistent efforts to mitigate supply chain disruptions. As I mentioned, our total backlog increased by about $2 billion in the quarter, led by Energy & Transportation. The backlog for Resource Industries and Construction Industries remain elevated. Although we continue to anticipate inflationary pressures in manufacturing costs, we expect price will more than offset these cost increases for the full year. Now I'll turn to our expectations for key end markets this year. In Construction Industries in North America, we expect nonresidential construction to continue to be strong due to construction backlogs. We also expect the ramping of projects from the U.S. Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act to occur in late 2022 and into 2023. Residential construction is moderating from the very strong levels experienced since early 2021. In China, the above and 10-ton excavator market was very strong during the first half of 2021. During our last earnings call, we indicated that the industry would be slightly lower than 2019 levels. We now anticipate the industry will be lower than we previously expected. The rest of the Asia Pacific region is expected to grow due to higher infrastructure spending and commodity prices. In EAME, the EU has proposed an infrastructure investment package. However, business activity has moderated. Strong growth continues for construction activity in Latin America due to supportive commodity prices. Overall, we expect healthy demand for the remainder of the year in Construction Industries. In Resource Industries, while our mining customers continue to display capital discipline, commodity prices remain supportive of investment despite recent moderation. We expect production and utilization levels will remain elevated, and our autonomous solutions continued to gain momentum. We expect the continuation of high equipment utilization and a low level of park trucks, which both support future demand for our equipment and services. We continue to believe the energy transition will support increased commodity demand over the medium and long term, expanding our addressable market and providing opportunities for profitable growth. In heavy construction and quarry and aggregates, we expect continued growth in 2022. In Energy & Transportation, we expect improving momentum in 2022 with strong order rates in most applications. In oil and gas, although customers remain disciplined, we remain encouraged by continued strength in reciprocating engine orders, especially for large engine replacements as asset utilization increases. In 2022, while solar services are expected to remain steady, new equipment orders strengthened significantly in the first half particularly in oil and gas, indicating sales growth in late 2022 and into 2023. Power generation orders remain healthy due to positive economic growth and continued data center strength. Industrial remains healthy with continued momentum in construction, agriculture and electric power. In Rail, North American locomotive sales are expected to remain muted. We also anticipate growth in high-speed Marine as customers upgrade aging fleets. Moving to Slide 7. Since our last quarterly earnings call, we published our 2021 sustainability report in May to highlight progress on our sustainability journey. In the report, we reiterated our commitment to further enhance our sustainability reporting and disclosures by utilizing the task force on climate-related financial disclosures, or TCFD, framework and also committed to begin reporting estimated Scope 3 greenhouse gas emissions in 2023. As we continue to advance our sustainability journey through the second quarter of 2022, Caterpillar and our customers announced a number of projects that will help contribute to a lower carbon future. In May, we announced a low carbon intensity fuel project with District to demonstrate a combined heat and power, or CHP system, fueled by various combinations of hydrogen and natural gas. CHP systems from Caterpillar provide both electricity and heat simultaneously, increasing overall efficiency and reducing exhaust emissions. With support and partial funding from the U.S. Department of Energy, the demonstration project will compare how hydrogen and hydrogen blends can be integrated into a waste heat and power solution. This quarter, we also announced the acquisition of Tangent Energy Solutions, a U.S.-based energy-as-a-service company. Tangent's suite of intelligent energy solutions will allow us to provide value to customers by helping them reduce energy costs, increase energy efficiency, reduce emissions, monetize electric goods support and provide resiliency for their operations. In summary, we continue to support our customers' climate-related objectives with new equipment and services that facilitate fuel transition increase operational efficiency and reduce emissions. We remain committed to contributing to a reduced carbon future as we help our customers build a better, more sustainable world. With that, I'll turn the call over to Andrew.
Andrew Bonfield:
Thank you, Jim, and good morning, everyone. I'll start by walking you through our second quarter results, including the performance of our segments. Then I'll comment on the balance sheet and free cash flow before concluding with our expectations for the third quarter and remainder of the year. Beginning on Slide 8. Sales and revenues for the second quarter increased by 11% or $1.4 billion to $14.2 billion. The increase was due to price and volume, partially offset by currency. Operating profit increased by 9% or $155 million to $1.9 billion as price realization and volume growth were partially offset by higher manufacturing and SG&A and R&D costs. Our adjusted operating profit margin of 13.8% was slightly below the year-ago level despite the underlying inflationary and supply chain pressures. Adjusted profit per share was $3.18 in the second quarter compared to $2.60 last year. Adjusted profit per share for both quarters excluded restructuring costs, which had a similar impact in both quarters. Taxes included discrete tax impacts, which benefited the quarter by about $0.10. Now on Slide 9. As Jim mentioned, the top line was generally in line with our expectations on strong price and service revenues with a bit of currency as a headwind as the U.S. dollar continued to strengthen. Machine sales to users were impacted by supply chain challenges was slightly worse than we had anticipated. Overall, we are not seeing signs of slowing demand as order levels and backlog remain healthy. Our retail statistics, or sales to users, are normally strongly correlated to demand in a typical environment. However, the ongoing supply chain constraints continue to impact our ability to ship equipment. Dealer inventory changes had a minimal impact on the top line as a $400 million decrease versus the first quarter was similar to the reduction seen in the prior year. Services remain strong as we benefit from the impact of our services growth initiatives. Moving to Slide 10. As I mentioned, second quarter operating profit increased by 9% on favorable price and volume. Price realization was better than we had anticipated due to the strong demand for machines. Manufacturing costs were also slightly higher than expected, primarily due to continued material and freight cost pressures as well as the impact of supply chain on our factory performance. Overall, price exceeded manufacturing costs for the quarter, which reverses the trend we had seen for most of the past year. SG&A and R&D costs increased partly due to investments aligned with our strategy for profitable growth, in addition to higher short-term incentive compensation. Our second quarter adjusted operating profit margin of 13.8%, a 30 basis point decrease versus the prior year. This was slightly lower than we had anticipated in April, principally as equipment volume lagged our expectations. We also saw some negative mix within our segments. The net impact of higher price and increased manufacturing costs was about neutral. Before I discuss segment results, I want to address the impact of high inflation and inventory build had on our segment margins in the quarter. For background, in periods with rapidly rising input costs and inventory growth, a portion of these rising costs will be appropriately included in Caterpillar's ending inventory. In order to promote effective management decision-making within our segment results, we recognize material and freight cost changes as soon as they impact our input costs. For enterprise reporting, this negative impact on segment results is offset by a favorable impact at the corporate level. In a nutshell, inflationary cost pressures were elevated negatively impacting margins at the segment level, while enterprise margins performed much closer to our expectations. This dynamic is timing related, meaning we'll see things balance out as the inventory starts to decline and inflationary costs subside. Moving to Slide 11. Let's review segment performance, starting with Construction Industries. Sales increased by 7% in the second quarter to $6 billion, driven by favorable price realization. Volume decreased slightly as lower sales of equipment to end users was mostly offset by higher sales of aftermarket parts. North America had the highest growth in sales dollars, a 20% increase due to strong pricing, a favorable change in dealer inventory and continued strength in services. Sales of equipment to end users lagged the prior year slightly, driven by supply chain challenges. Residential and nonresidential demand remained healthy, although we saw some moderation in residential. Sales in Latin America increased by 48% as robust construction activity supported higher sales of equipment to end users. In EAME, sales decreased by 7%, primarily driven by the changes in inventories and currency while price was a partial offset. Asia Pacific sales decreased by 17% due in part to lower sales of equipment to end users, primarily in China, which had a strong quarter a year ago. Second quarter profit for Construction Industries decreased by 4% versus the prior year to $989 million. Price realization more than offset manufacturing costs. The profit decreased due to the impact of lower sales volume and mix. Unfavorable manufacturing costs largely reflected higher material and freight. The segment's operating margin decreased by 180 basis points versus last year to 16.4% as inflationary cost pressures impacted the segment margins, as I mentioned a moment ago. Turning to Slide 12. Resource Industries sales increased by 16% in the second quarter to $3 billion. The improvement was primarily due to favorable price realization and higher sales volume. Volume increase on sales of aftermarket parts. Second quarter profit for Resource Industries increased by 2% to $355 million as price and volume more than offset unfavorable manufacturing costs, which largely reflected higher material and freight costs. The segment's operating profit margin decreased by 170 basis points versus last year to 12% as inflationary cost pressures impacted the segment margins similar to Construction Industries. Now on Slide 13. Energy & Transportation sales increased by 15% to approximately $5.7 billion with sales up across all applications. This included an 8% sales increase in oil and gas as sales of aftermarket parts, reciprocating engines and engines used for well servicing and gas compression increased. Solar turbine sales and oil and gas applications lagged the prior year. Power generation sales increased by 13% on stronger sales volume in small reciprocating engines and aftermarket parts. Sales of solar turbines increased in power generation. Industrial sales rose by 24% with strength across all regions. Finally, transportation sales increased by 7% on reciprocating engine aftermarket part sales and strength in rail services. Second quarter profit for Energy & Transportation decreased by 11% to $659 million. Higher manufacturing costs reflected continued headwinds from inflationary cost pressures in freight and material, which were partially offset by favorable price realization and higher sales volume. As a reminder, Energy & Transportation took price increases later in the year in 2021, given the different market dynamics as compared to the other primary segments. In addition, SG&A and R&D expenses increased due to investments aligned with our strategic initiatives, including electrification and services growth, coupled with higher short-term incentive compensation. The segment's operating margin decreased by 320 basis points versus last year to 11.6%, impacted by the same inflationary cost pressures as our other primary segments. Moving to Slide 14. Financial Products revenue increased by 3% to $798 million. Segment profit decreased by 11% to $217 million. The profit decrease was mainly due to an unfavorable impact from movements in equity securities and insurance services. Our higher provision for credit losses at Cat Financial primarily relating to reserves associated with Russia and Ukraine also weighed on profit. A favorable impact from return to repossessed equipment served as a partial offset. Moving to our credit portfolio. Customers and dealers continue to perform well as our leading indicators remain strong. Past dues, which are a good proxy for the financial health of our customers were 2.19% compared to 2.58% at the end of the second quarter 2021. That's down 39 basis points year-over-year. As is typical, retail new business volume improved sequentially versus the first quarter. And while we did see a 12% decrease versus the prior year, nearly half of that decline was attributable to China, where we saw COVID restrictions reinstated. In addition, although our match funding strategy serves to mitigate our risks from interest rate changes, rising rates typically do benefit banks from a competitive financing perspective. We saw this play out in the second quarter as our share of machines financed declined slightly. We continue to benefit from robust demand for used machines from both a volume and price perspective. This reflects the underlying demand trends we are seeing for equipment. Now on Slide 15. We generated about $1.1 billion in ME&T free cash flow during the quarter, a decrease of about $600 million versus the second quarter 2021. We continue to build production inventory to help manage through supply chain challenges. Looking ahead, we expect stronger free cash flow in the second half due to the absence of the payment of incentive compensation. We also do not anticipate our working capital rise as it did in the first half of the year. Therefore, we continue to expect to achieve our Investor Day ME&T free cash flow target of between $4 billion and $8 billion for the full year. As Jim mentioned, we paid around $600 million in dividends, in addition to repurchasing about $1.1 billion worth of common stock, supporting our objective to be in the market on a more consistent basis. Enterprise cash was $6 billion, a $500 million decrease compared to the first quarter of 2022. The decrease was primarily driven by the $1.7 billion in shareholder return, net of ME&T free cash flow generation. We also continue to hold some of our cash balances and slightly longer dated liquid marketable securities in order to improve the yield on that cash. Our liquidity remains strong. Now on Slide 16. In light of the current environment, including supply chain constraints, we continue to refrain from providing annual profit per share guidance. However, I will share some thoughts on our third quarter and full year. As a reminder, the second quarter played out about as we had anticipated on the top line, although the inputs varied somewhat. Pricing was better than expected, while sales of equipment to end users lagged our expectations due to supply chain challenges and additional weakness in China. Looking at the third quarter, we currently anticipate the top line will increase compared to the prior year on higher sales to users and favorable price realization. Strong demand should support higher sales across the three primary segments, subject to our ability to navigate through the ongoing supply chain changes. For the second half of the year, we expect revenues to be higher compared to the first half. To reiterate Jim's comment, we remain encouraged by the strong demand in our end markets for our equipment and services. Order levels and backlogs remain strong. Dealer inventory levels remain at the low end of the typical range and rental fleets are aging. Finally, infrastructure investment later in the year should be supportive. On margins in the third quarter, we anticipate gains across our three primary segments as compared to the prior year and first half. Construction Industries and Resource Industries margins should improve as price realization continues to flow through and more than offset manufacturing cost inflation. In Energy & Transportation, we expect pricing to continue to gain momentum and offset manufacturing costs. For the second half of the year, both the enterprise and segment levels, we anticipate adjusted operating profit margin improvement compared to both the first half and the comparable periods of 2021. The impact of price actions should accelerate and though we anticipate continued increases in manufacturing costs, we are starting to let the significant increases, particularly in freight and material costs, that we saw in the second half of the last year. Finally, to assist you with year modeling, we currently expect our accrual for short-term incentive compensation to be around $1.6 billion this year. We continue to anticipate a global effective tax rate of around 24% and restructuring spend of approximately $600 million for the full year. Turning to Slide 17. In summary, we performed well in the quarter where demand generally remains strong, but our ability to satisfy that demand was constrained by supply chain challenges. Despite this backdrop, we realized $1.4 billion more in sales and revenue, supported by strong price realization and services. Looking ahead, comparisons should ease in the second half of the year, and despite the challenging environment, we continue to expect to achieve our Investor Day targets for adjusted operating profit margin and ME&T free cash flow for the full year. And with that, we'll now take your questions.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from the line of Jamie Cook with Credit Suisse.
Jamie Cook:
I guess my question, understanding challenging environment, it sounds like the second quarter was a little short of your expectations yet we're raising our short-term incentive comp. So just trying to get some clarification around that. And then any -- on confidence level sales to users are improving in the back half of the year. Are you seeing any improvement in supply chain and sort of how we should think about it?
Jim Umpleby:
Jamie, to answer your first question. So we accrue for incentive compensation based on our expectation for full year results. And as you know from our proxy, primarily our incentive compensation is based on operating profit, OPEC and services revenues. So again, the increase in the quarter was not due to the quarter, but it was due to our expectations for the full year. Your second question, we have not seen a significant improvement in supply chain. It's still hand-to-hand combat. Our teams are working way through those issues. Again, very proud of the team that they're able to turn in double-digit sales growth despite those supply chain challenges, but we have not seen them ease. It changes from component to component. 1 day, it's one issue, 1 day, it's another issue. But at the macro level, we have not yet seen an improvement.
Andrew Bonfield:
However, let me just add, one of the things, if you recall, Jamie, is normally, we have a stronger first half from a production perspective, particularly in Construction Industries. Obviously, as you -- normally, you would see revenues decline in the second half. We don't expect that because, obviously, we expect to be able to now use some of that production capacity to meet some of the end user demand. Within Resource Industries, we will expect -- we've had some commissioning delays. We've continued to see that. We expect those to ease, which will help us in the second half from a Street perspective. So that's not really supply chain related. And then finally, in Energy & Transportation, as always, we do expect a stronger second half of the year. That overall gives us confidence without actually any change in supply chain that we should be able to see through improvement in the second half of the year.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Tami Zakaria with JPMorgan.
Tami Zakaria:
Could you share what your volume expectation is for the back half? It seems like your volume growth in the first half was in the 3% to 4% range. Do you expect that volume to improve sequentially in both 3Q and 4Q? And what about pricing for the back half, should we expect similar 8% to 9% pricing as well like you saw in the second quarter?
Jim Umpleby:
So to answer your first question, we do expect volume to grow and price to improve sequentially and year-over-year in the third and fourth quarters.
Andrew Bonfield:
Yes. And as far as actually the percentage is concerned, obviously, the issue, obviously, in the second half on a volume basis, there's a -- volume includes both services revenues as well as SKUs. So obviously, it's dependent on how both of those perform. And on the sort of pricing level, as we've said consistently, we expect pricing to improve in the second half of the year, which should drive overall improvement as we go through the year. Reminder, we did have some price increases in the second half of 2021 as well.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Nicole DeBlase with Deutsche Bank.
Nicole DeBlase:
Maybe just digging into that last question from Tami a little bit. On the outlook for volume, is that improvement that you're expecting in the second half fall, or predominantly a function of end user demand? Or what are your expectations for dealer inventories as well?
Andrew Bonfield:
Yes. I mean, obviously, our expectation is still for the full year that we don't expect a significant change in dealer inventory. As you know, we have had a small build year-to-date. Obviously, it's dependent again where demand is product by product for how those dealer inventory movements will occur for the remainder of the year. But obviously -- and also part of the inventory build is within Resource Industries where we are having some commissioning delays. We expect those to work out as we go through the year. It really is mostly a function of the end-user demand. As we say, the challenge for us at the moment is around being able to meet that end user demand from a supply chain perspective.
Jim Umpleby:
And as it typically the case, Energy & Transportation will have strong -- will be stronger at the end of the year than they were in the first half of the year, particularly solar turbines.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of David Raso with Evercore.
David Raso:
Your backlog surprisingly went up sequentially. And the backlog right now, seems like it covers most of your back half of the year, but historically, not all the backlog ships that quickly. So I'm just curious, the order flow that you're getting for '23 right now, can you give us some insight into -- we know you have a big backlog and still some supply chain issues, price cost is getting better, but really trying to think about demand into '23. You do have some window with some of the order programs, the BOM program that you have where guys can order early for '23. Can you just give us some perspective on what you're seeing for equipment appetite for next year?
Jim Umpleby:
Yes, a couple of comments. So our backlog increase of $2 billion was primarily driven -- was led by Energy & Transportation. And as we've mentioned previously, we have seen an increase in orders from solar turbines oil and gas customers that will start to impact us in late 2022 and into 2023. Our backlog in Resource Industries remains healthy and would have increased if not for some Russia cancellations that we had. So again, as we look forward, we're not making a prediction about 2023. But again, that strong backlog does help us feel good. The other thing is Construction Industries, the infrastructure bill, we believe it will start to impact us in late 2022 and into 2023. So again, for those -- I'll provide that as color, although obviously, we're not making a 2023 prediction at this point.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Jerry Revich with Goldman Sachs.
Jerry Revich:
Jim, I'm wondering if you could just weigh in with your views on how your mining customers will respond given the commodity price volatility. We've seen over the past months, how different is this environment versus 2018 where for a brief period of time and the correction we saw slowing replacement demand as miners hit the pause button. Just wondering if you could compare and contrast based on your conversations with mining customers on prospective orders today?
Jim Umpleby:
Well, certainly, our mining customers continue to display capital discipline. Having said that, we're encouraged by the conversations that we're having with our mining customers. They're making decisions based on a very long-term view. And of course, the energy transition is creating perceived additional demand for many commodities moving forward, think about electric vehicles, think about other kinds of minerals that will need to be mined based to support the energy transition. So having said that, we mentioned that we had some cancellations in Russia. But again, we remain quite positive based on -- for the medium and long-term outlook for mining based on the conversations that we're having with customers.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Chad Dillard with Bernstein.
Chad Dillard:
I have a question for you guys on manufacturing costs. You did about, I think it was $966 million year-on-year increase. Is that the high watermark for the year? And then just how to think about the -- or if you can quantify that inventory impact in corporate expenses for the quarter and how to think about it for the year?
Andrew Bonfield:
Yes, Chad. So first of all, obviously, as we started the year, we did expect a moderation of supply chain or manufacturing cost increases as we went through the year. And obviously, we start to lap some of the significant increases in the back half, both material cost and freight cost inflation, it remains. So I think we've taken the appropriate pricing actions. So we're optimistic about the ability for us to more than offset. Obviously, I'm not going to predict about where we are looking in Q3 and Q4. However, the delta between price and manufacturing costs, which is really the most important part from our perspective, will actually get wider and that really is to help us actually catch back up some of the shortfalls we've seen over the previous few quarters. So from a margin perspective, that will be a positive. With regards to the corporate expenses, I mean just -- again, just to reiterate, corporate items and eliminations include a lot of items, which are -- they relate to the business units, but obviously were accounted for on a business unit-specific basis. The inventory impact is a reasonably sized number. We had a -- and we actually -- I think it was about $100-odd million last quarter and a similar number this year, quarter. The other things in there include things like warranty costs and profit inventories. All of those things are impacts, which actually do underline the impact of the overall margins within the segment. So just one thing challenging for you guys to model, but obviously, we're just trying to be as clear as we can about it.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Michael Feniger with Bank of America.
Michael Feniger:
North America retail sales and construction, obviously, minus 3%. You discussed the supply constraints. I'm curious when we look at some of the rental branches and companies reported another quarter of double-digit growth there, do you feel there's any competitive dynamics going on there, maybe losing share and maybe smaller construction equipment by chance because of these supply constraints? How does Caterpillar kind of deal with this issue with rental continue to -- it feels like gain share in this tight market? Curious of your views there.
Jim Umpleby:
Well, thanks for your question, Michael. And of course, we have a rental business as well that our dealers are very focused on. And again, we are in a supply chain constrained environment. So dealer has to make a decision between putting something in the rental fleet or selling it to a retail customer who wants that equipment. And so our retail fleet is aging. Having said that, we're not concerned about share. We're holding our own. It's really an issue of still strong demand and just our ability to completely meet that strong demand. Again, we did turn in a total company level, double-digit sales growth.
Andrew Bonfield:
Yes. And fundamentally, I mean, obviously, rental is a financing decision and obviously has cost implications. And so obviously, for a lot of our customers who are using the machine on a more frequent basis, rental is not necessarily the best option because of the cost implications. That's why we do believe over time, as the supply chain eases, they will be buying machines, and we know they do want those machines. But obviously, in a short-term basis, they may use rental as a stop gap until they are able to get their machine from us.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Stephen Volkmann with Jefferies.
Stephen Volkmann:
My question is on the cost side. We've seen decreases in some of the metals and energy and freight indices that are sort of big and broad. And I'm wondering if you're starting to see any moderation in those costs yet or if there's perhaps another quarter or 2 before that would start to kind of flow through?
Jim Umpleby:
Yes, we're still dealing with an inflationary environment, and we have not seen a decrease from our suppliers as a result of commodity price reductions. As you know, it takes a while for those kind of changes to work their way through the supply chain. And of course, there's volatility there as well. So, no. The short answer to the question is no, we haven't seen any moderation in those costs.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Mig Dobre with Baird.
Mig Dobre:
Just going back to the pricing discussion. You've done a little better than 9% in the quarter. But I'm sort of curious if we're sort of thinking about the order intake that you had this quarter relative to what actually flowed through the P&L, can you give us a sense for how the pricing is looking for the most recent orders that you had here? And I'm also thinking about your competitors, right? We saw some of your Japanese competitors report much lower price increases. So I'm curious how you think about competitive dynamics globally around that?
Andrew Bonfield:
Yes. So I mean, obviously, as we look through, I mean, obviously, as you know, we do have some price protection on orders in the backlog that, as we say, is always taken into account when we're thinking about the decisions. As far as the competitive dynamic, I'm not seeing any impact on share relative as a result of the price increases we've taken. So we are -- obviously, we'll always keep a close eye on that. But generally, we are -- as we said, we actually saw price be slightly better than we expected in the quarter. And so that is a net positive for us and around. And obviously, demand for machines remain strong, which helps from a pricing environment perspective.
Jim Umpleby:
And as you know, we've been very focused on services in the last few years and one of the main elements of that is to increase the value that we provide to our customers. So it's not simply a always a price discussion. We know we must be competitive, that's very important, but we also strive to deliver increased value to our customers, minimizing downtime, maximizing availability, great product support, dealers do a great job supporting them. So again, it's more than just price. We're really focused on through our services initiatives, increasing the value that we provide to our customers. And that's all part of their purchasing decision.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Kristen Owen with Oppenheimer.
Kristen Owen:
I wanted to follow up actually on the services and aftermarket strength that you reported in the quarter. And just if you could offer some context around how much of that is owing to some of the service alert capabilities and the agreements that you've been signing over the last several years versus just what you're seeing from a utilization perspective, how much of the aftermarket parts is related to just equipment that's being used more frequently?
Jim Umpleby:
Yes. It's a whole variety of issues. And certainly, utilization is up, which we feel good about, but we're also gaining traction on our service initiatives, everything from the investments that we've made to increase parts availability using a system that we call Pick [ph], which allows us to work with our dealers to ensure that we have the right parts and anticipate what customers will need. We now have 1.2 million connected assets. So that gives us much better visibility for everything from getting the right parts to the right dealer so that the customers get them when they need it to allowing us to help customers avoid downtime, maximizing availability, maximize production. We've also invested significantly in our e-commerce capability, and we're seeing good progress there. Again, a whole range of digital investments that we're making are really starting to produce results, and we're very bullish on that. So it's really a combination of both. Certainly, utilization is up, but also we're seeing positive results from all the hard work of our teams over the last few years.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Steven Fisher with UBS.
Steven Fisher:
Just a regional question on the construction segment. On Europe, first, you talked about -- or can you talk a little bit more about what you're seeing from the end user demand there and the feedback you're getting from dealers in the wake of softer market conditions? Is this kind of a maybe a 1-quarter thing ahead of what some of the stimulus might flow through there? Or do you think we're kind of settling in for something that could be a little bit longer period of weakness there? And similarly, in China, are you getting any sense that recent announcements around stimulus could start to move the needle there more in the positive direction?
Jim Umpleby:
Well, starting with Europe. Revenues were down in the quarter, largely a result of the strengthening dollar. So it's really a currency issue. General business activity has moderated in the EU, and we'll keep a close eye on that. But there are -- as you know, there has been -- there was an EU infrastructure package that passed and we're watching that closely as well, and that certainly could positively impact us moving forward. So again, we're watching it very closely. There's some positives. There are some things that aren't so positive. So we'll see how it all plays out. In China, we have seen the market weaken, as I mentioned. We had a couple of very strong years in 2020 and particularly in 2021. It's too early for us to really predict what's going to happen there. To your specific question, again, we'll continue to support our customers there. And again, what we see now, of course, is a weaker market for that 10-ton and above excavator market than we had previously.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Matt Elkott with Cowen.
Matt Elkott:
Good to see the continued strong net growth in the backlog. I was hoping you can tell us if you've had any backlog cancellations not related to Russia, as you discussed, but ones that can be attributable to directly or indirectly to higher interest rates, lower commodity prices or the cooling in the housing market? And since the answer to this question may be short, on the locomotive side, I was hoping if you can comment on, I think, your competitor just received a $1 billion order from a Class 1 on locomotive mods. I was hoping you can talk about your outlook for locomotive upgrades going forward and do local upgrades go into your service revenue?
Jim Umpleby:
Yes. So answer to your first question is no, we haven't seen cancellations outside of Russia. So again, the demand remains strong across most of our end markets. And as we've been discussing here this morning, our backlog is up. So again, we haven't seen cancellations. In rail, yes, there are -- obviously, we're always working to produce our -- to maximize our service revenue in locomotives. And yes, upgrades and -- that we perform do go into services, if we do service work on those locomotives. So again, as you know, the number of stored locomotives is still high. It's below the 2020 peak. But again, we continue to support our customers, and that produces service opportunities for us in rail.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Tim Thein with Citi Group.
Tim Thein:
I just wanted to circle back -- just to circle back to the discussion earlier on rental, but more from the standpoint of the potential opportunity for Cat into '23. And you mentioned the aging of the fleet, but we're hearing a lot from dealers, at least in the U.S. about the size of the rental fleet being smaller than they'd like. So I'm just curious is there -- I know you're not going to give us a point estimate, but is there a way to think about a range of outcomes in terms of reinvestment in rental assets into '23 by the dealer base and obviously, what that could mean from Cat's standpoint, just as you replenish those rental yards?
Jim Umpleby:
Right. And certainly, dealer inventory and dealer rental fleets are lower than most dealers would like at the moment due to a combination of strong demand and the supply chain constraints we have. So I do believe that when supply chain constraints start to ease, both of those represent an opportunity for us to get our dealer inventory back more towards what would be typical for them to expect and also give them an opportunity to increase their rental fleets as well. So I do believe, again, not time-bounding that, but certainly, when supply chain conditions ease, that does create an opportunity for us.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Dillon Cumming with Morgan Stanley.
Dillon Cumming:
Just wondering if you could kind of expand on your prepared remarks in terms of what you're seeing on the resi side of the construction portfolio versus the non-res side. I think you mentioned resi, in particular has been pretty strong for you guys for almost the past two years, I imagine dealer inventories are probably pretty lean at this point. But I guess, do you feel like that part of the portfolio might start to become a drag on back half of the year just into next year, just given some of the softening that you're seeing in the housing-related data points?
Jim Umpleby:
Residential demand today remains healthy for us. Certainly, it could moderate somewhat due to interest rates and inflation. However, nonresidential demand is stable outside of China. And again, as I mentioned, due to the infrastructure bill, we are bullish that nonresidential construction in North America, U.S. particularly will improve due to the bill in late 2022 and into 2023.
Andrew Bonfield:
And just a reminder to everybody, when we do see demand softening in certain areas that always mean -- and because we are in a supply chain constrained time and particularly around things like engine control modules, that means those can be reallocated to areas where there's stronger demand. So net-net, actually shouldn't actually have any impact on us overall.
Ryan Fiedler:
Operator, we have time for one more question.
Operator:
Your final question today comes from the line of Rob Wertheimer with Melius Research.
Rob Wertheimer:
My question is really on kind of production and manufacturing. The segment discussion that you gave was interesting sort of maybe a leading indicator given the current cost accounting on the segments. And so one question is, does price alone gets you to your margin expectations for the back half? Or do you have to improve anything on supply chain manufacturing to get there given the segments look lower than the total? And then more fundamentally, Jim, I don't know if you can address how you feel the production system is working, how other metrics you look at, whether it's quality or safety or flow are doing? Are we seeing just cost inflation in a mismatch with price versus cost? Or are we seeing any tangles in the production systems that are more fundamental?
Andrew Bonfield:
Yes. So obviously, yes, I mean, Rob, we are still seeing issues in the factories, which are causing some impacts on variable labor and burdens across that. Obviously, our assumption in the second half is that those will be slightly better, but not necessarily flowing through as efficiently as possible. We're continually working through as best as we can to make sure that. But price is the biggest driver because obviously, as you know, we put through those increases and order to try and offset some of that material cost inflation that's gone through. But yes, there is inefficiency, but we're hoping that some of that will ease as we go through the remainder of the year.
Jim Umpleby:
And Rob, maybe just to add on to that. So as you know, we've worked very hard on our lean manufacturing processes over the last few years. And it has been a struggle just given the supply chain challenges. And we have -- and we all learned a new term called decommit, where a supplier, or one of their suppliers decommit so we get some last-minute surprises. So we're certainly not operating our factories as efficiently as we would like and as efficiently as we did before we started to come out of the pandemic. But again, we're continuing to work those issues hard and again, it's something that proud of the team despite those issues, which is creating some inefficiencies, which just create some additional costs, we were still able to turn in double-digit top line growth during the quarter.
Ryan Fiedler:
All right. Thank you, Jim, Andrew and everyone who joined us today. A replay of our call will be available online later this morning. We'll also post a transcript on our Investor Relations website as soon as it's available. You'll also find a second quarter results video with our CFO and an SEC filing with our sales to users data. Click on investors.caterpillar.com and then click on Financials to view those materials. If you have any questions, please reach out to Rob or me. The Investor Relations general phone number is (309) 675-4549. We hope you have a great rest of the day. Now let's turn the call back to Emma to conclude our call.
Operator:
Thank you for attending today's conference call. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Welcome to the First Quarter 2022 Caterpillar Earnings Conference Call. Please be advised that today’s conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Ryan Fiedler. Thank you. Please go ahead.
Ryan Fiedler:
Thank you, Emma. Good morning, everyone and welcome to Caterpillar’s first quarter of 2022 earnings call. I am Ryan Fiedler, Director of Investor Relations. Joining me today are Jim Umpleby, Chairman and CEO; Andrew Bonfield, Chief Financial Officer; Kyle Epley, Vice President of the Global Finance Services Division; and Rob Rengel, Senior IR Manager. During our call today, we will be discussing the first quarter earnings release we issued earlier today. You can find our slides, the news release and a video recap at investors.caterpillar.com under Events and Presentations. I would also like to remind everyone that we are hosting Caterpillar’s Investor Day on May 17 from 10:30 a.m. to 3 p.m. Central Time at the Hilton DFW Lakes Executive Conference Center in Grapevine, Texas. Our theme is services, technology and sustainability, helping our customers build a better world. Please check out the details on our investor website. Caterpillar has copyrighted this call and we prohibit use of any portion of it without our prior written approval. Moving to Slide 2. During our call today, we will make forward-looking statements, which are subject to risks and uncertainties. We will also make assumptions that could cause our actual results to be different than the information we are sharing with you on this call. Please refer to our recent SEC filings and the forward-looking statements reminder in the news release for details on factors that individually or in aggregate could cause our actual results to vary materially from our forecast. On today’s call, we will also refer to non-GAAP numbers. For a reconciliation of any non-GAAP numbers to the appropriate U.S. GAAP numbers, please see the appendix of the earnings call slides. Today, we reported profit per share of $2.86 for the first quarter of 2022 compared with $2.77 of profit per share in the first quarter of 2021. We are including adjusted profit per share in addition to our U.S. GAAP results. Our adjusted profit per share was $2.88 for the first quarter of 2022 compared with adjusted profit per share of $2.87 for the first quarter of 2021. Adjusted profit per share for both quarters excluded restructuring costs. Now, let’s flip to Slide 3 and turn the call over to our Chairman and CEO, Jim Umpleby.
Jim Umpleby:
Thanks, Ryan. Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us. I’d like to start by thanking our global team for their contributions to another good quarter. We continue to execute our strategy for long-term profitable growth as demonstrated by our first quarter results. I will begin with my perspectives on our performance in the quarter and then I will provide some insight on our end markets. Before discussing our results, I’d like to take a moment to say we remain deeply saddened by the tragic events continuing to occur in Ukraine and hope for a peaceful resolution. Through the Caterpillar Foundation, we have donated more than $1 million to support both urgent and long-term needs of the Ukraine humanitarian crisis. I am proud of our employees for their generous contributions through the Foundation Matching Gifts program, which added nearly an additional $1 million on support for Ukrainian refugees. On the operations front, we suspended production in our Russian manufacturing facilities and will continue to comply with all applicable laws and evolving sanctions. Moving on to our quarterly results, sales rose in all three of our primary segments due to volume gains and favorable price. Sales and margins were both slightly better than we expected. And similar to the second half of 2021, our top line would have been even stronger without the continuing supply chain constraints. Overall, we remain encouraged by the strong demand for our products and services. The first quarter of 2022 marked the fifth consecutive quarter of higher end user demand compared to the prior year. Services remained strong in the quarter. We continue to make progress on our service initiatives, including customer value agreements, e-commerce, connected assets and prioritized service events. Moving to Slide 4, sales and revenues increased by 14%, slightly better than we expected. The increase was primarily driven by higher end-user demand and the impact of changes in dealer inventories as well as strengthening price realization. The impact of our price actions started to accelerate in the second half of 2021. We generated double-digit sales growth in all primary segments and sales rose in North America, Latin America and EAME. Asia-Pacific was down by 4%. Compared with the first quarter of 2021, sales to users rose 2%, which was about as we expected. For machines, including Construction Industries and Resource Industries, sales to users increased by 3%, while Energy & Transportation decreased 1%. Sales to users in Construction Industries were about flat overall with good growth globally in the first quarter, except for China. North America grew by double-digits as residential construction remained strong and non-residential contributed to show signs of improvement. Latin America saw higher end user demand supported by construction and strong commodity prices. End user demand increased in EAME due to residential growth and support of commodity prices. I will briefly discuss China. In the first quarter of 2021, China’s greater than 10-ton excavator industry was at an all-time high, which resulted in a difficult comparable in the quarter. In the first quarter of 2022, China was lower than we expected due to weaker residential construction and COVID-19-related shutdowns. Overall, sales in China were about half the level we saw in the prior year’s quarter. Keep in mind, China sales are typically 5% to 10% of our enterprise sales. Outside of China, Asia-Pacific sales to users grew as we continue to see strong demand in the region. In Resource Industries, the overall environment remained positive with sales to users up 13%, an improvement from the fourth quarter. Mining increased at a measured pace, which is in line with the expectations that we have been communicating to you for the last couple of years. Strong commodity prices supported a high utilization and a low number of parked trucks. In heavy construction and quarry and aggregates, sales to users increased versus the prior year for the fourth straight quarter as end user demand continues to improve. In Energy & Transportation, sales to users declined 1% versus the prior year. Solar turbines declined as expected due to the timing of projects. Excluding solar, sales to users were strong. Oil and gas sales to users were down in the first quarter with improvement in reciprocating engines more than offset by solar. Despite continued data center and rental demand strength, power generation sales to users were down overall due to timing of some larger projects. Industrial end user demand strengthened across all regions. Lastly, Transportation benefited from growth off a low base, primarily in marine applications. Now, I will spend a moment on dealer inventory. Dealers who are independent businesses increased their inventories by about $1.3 billion in the first quarter. This compares to a $700 million increase in the first quarter of last year. While dealer inventories remain near the low end of the typical range, we continue to work closely with dealers to satisfy higher end user demand. Andrew will provide additional color about dealer inventory later in the call. Regarding ongoing supply constraints, we experienced similar challenges to what we highlighted in the fourth quarter, which was in line with our expectations. We continue to experience constraints with semiconductors and certain other components. Our team continues to implement solutions to help mitigate the overall situation. For example, we executed engineering redesigns to provide customers with alternative options. We also increased dual sourcing of components and placed specialized Caterpillar resources at suppliers to help ease constraints. I remain proud of our global team’s ability to deliver double-digit sales growth despite supply chain challenges. Similar to previous quarters, absent the supply chain constraints, our top line would have been even stronger. When the supply chain conditions ease, we expect to be well positioned to fully meet demand and gain operating leverage from higher volumes. Operating profit increased 2% in the quarter to $1.9 billion driven by strong volume and favorable price realization across all segments, which was partially offset by higher manufacturing cost and SG&A and R&D expenses. The higher manufacturing costs primarily reflected increased material and freight costs in the quarter. While we did see some labor inefficiencies, these were not as significant as they were in the fourth quarter. Operating profit margins were 13.7% in the first quarter, which was lower than the first quarter of 2021. We expect that comparisons would be difficult as inflationary impacts to manufacturing costs accelerated in the back half of 2021 and remained at a similar level in the first quarter of 2022. On a sequential basis, our margins improved versus the fourth quarter as we expected. Our profit per share was $2.86 versus $2.77 in the first quarter of 2021. The adjusted profit per share was $2.88 versus $2.87 in the first quarter of last year. On Slide 5, we had an ME&T free cash outflow of about $400 million in the quarter, which Andrew will discuss in a few moments. To remind you, our Investor Day target is to deliver ME&T free cash flow of between $4 billion and $8 billion per year. We expect to be within that range for the full year 2022. Regarding capital deployment, we completed $800 million of share repurchases and returned $600 million in dividends to shareholders. We remain proud of our dividend aristocrat status. We continue to expect to return substantially all of our ME&T free cash flow to shareholders over time through dividends and share repurchases. Now, I will share some high level assumptions on our expectations for the full year. We expect to achieve our Investor Day targets for adjusted operating profit margins and as I have just mentioned, deliver ME&T free cash flow within our targeted range in 2022. As I previously indicated, we continue to be encouraged by strong order demand across our segments. In the first quarter of 2022, our total backlog increased by $3.4 billion as we experienced continued strong demand and supply chain challenges. Backlog increased in all segments with the largest increase in Energy & Transportation. The environment continues to be challenging due to supply chain constraints and the more recent COVID-19-related shutdowns in China. Although manufacturing costs are expected to remain elevated, we expect price to more than offset these cost increases for the full year. Turning to Slide 6, I will discuss our expectations for key end markets this year. In Construction Industries in North America, residential construction remained strong with non-residential continuing to improve. Despite rising interest rates, infrastructure investment is expected to improve in late 2022 and beyond supported by the U.S. Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act. The 10-ton and above excavator market in China was very strong in 2020 and 2021. We now anticipate this market will be slightly lower than 2019 levels. The rest of Asia-Pacific region is expected to grow due to higher infrastructure spending. In the EAME, despite the broader geopolitical concerns, we remain cautiously optimistic due to housing growth in the EU investment package that is expected to drive construction demand. Construction and mining activity in Latin America are supportive of growth that could be impacted by inflation and interest rate policy decisions. In Resource Industries, we believe commodity prices will continue to drive higher production and utilization levels, which support more investments in equipment and services in 2022 and beyond. Within heavy construction and quarry and aggregates, we also anticipate continued growth in 2022. Lastly, we are seeing increased quoting for our autonomous solutions, which includes large mining trucks, drills, track-type tractors, water trucks and underground machines. In Energy & Transportation, we expect improving momentum in 2022 with strong order rates in most applications. In oil and gas, although customers remain disciplined, we are encouraged by continued strength in reciprocated engine orders, especially for large engine replacements as asset utilization increases. Power generation orders remained healthy due to positive economic growth and continued data center strength. In 2022, while solar services are expected to remain steady, we continue to expect new equipment shipments to be lower than last year due to the lead time of Solar’s products. Solar’s new equipment orders strengthened significantly in the first quarter and shipments are expected to improve in late 2022 or early 2023. Industrial remains healthy with continued momentum in construction, agriculture and electric power. In rail, North American locomotive sales are expected to remain muted, but international locomotives are more promising. We also anticipate growth in high-speed marine as customers upgrade aging fleets. Now on to Slide 7. In 2021 and into the first quarter of 2022, Caterpillar and our customers announced a number of projects that will contribute to a reduced carbon future. We recently entered into an agreement with ioneer, a U.S.-based lithium Boron miner. This will be the first Greenfield site in the U.S. to use autonomous haul trucks. Lithium is a key component for electric – for battery electric vehicles and the minerals from this Nevada mine will help contribute to a more sustainable future. Our autonomous technology is a competitive advantage as it delivers significant benefits to our customers, including improved safety, productivity and efficiency, while lowering greenhouse gas emissions per ton of material removed. Our commitment to sustainable innovation remains strong as we continue to execute our strategy for long-term profitable growth. I look forward to hosting you at our Investor Day on May 17, where we will be talking more about services, technology and sustainability. With that, I will turn the call over to Andrew.
Andrew Bonfield:
Thank you, Jim and good morning everyone. I will begin with a recap of our first quarter results, including the performance of our segments. Then I will comment on the balance sheet and free cash flow before concluding with a few comments on our expectations as we move into the second quarter of 2022. Beginning on Slide 8, sales and revenues for the first quarter increased by 14% or $1.7 billion to $13.6 billion. Volume, including higher dealer inventory build and price drove the increase in sales and revenues, which as Jim mentioned was slightly better than we had expected. Operating profit increased by 2% to $1.9 billion as price realization and volume growth were partially offset by higher manufacturing and period costs. Our adjusted operating profit margin of 13.7% was slightly better than we had anticipated primarily due to the stronger-than-expected volumes and favorable price realization. First quarter profit per share was $2.86 compared to $2.77 in the prior year. Adjusted profit per share was $2.88 in the first quarter compared to $2.87 last year. Adjusted profit per share for both quarters excludes restructuring costs. Our global tax rate in the quarter was about 24%, slightly lower than we had guided you in January. However, on a comparable basis, the lower tax rate was offset by lower favorable discrete tax benefits compared to the prior year. Now on Slide 9, as we anticipated, top line improved on stronger volume and price realization. End user demand increased versus the prior year, but the growth rate accelerated on a sequential basis due to tougher comparisons, especially in China. Dealer inventory rose by about $1.3 billion. Services revenues remained strong in the quarter. Price realization strengthened, while currency was a bit of a headwind. Let me provide some color on dealer inventory. The $1.3 billion increase versus year end 2021 was nearly double what we had anticipated and about $600 million more than the increase we saw in the same quarter last year. About half of that $600 million increase year-on-year came from Resource Industries due to the timing of shipments from our dealers to their customers, which can be lumpy. These units are backed by firm customer orders, but were not recognized in our reported retail sales for the quarter. This is in part due to variations in onsite assembly times. The other half of the deal inventory increase was mainly due to the timing of shipments in Construction Industries late in the quarter. We anticipate that dealers will start to sell down the inventories in the second quarter following their normal seasonable pattern on strong sales to users. Our expectations for the full year haven’t changed and we do not expect to see a significant benefit from dealer restocking in 2022 as end-user demand remains strong. First quarter sales and revenues increased by double-digit percentages in all regions, except Asia-Pacific. Sales in North America rose by 23% with continued growth in the three primary segments. In EAME, sales increased by 15%, while Latin America sales grew by 26%, a 4% decrease in Asia-Pacific sales was primarily due to softening in China. Sales in the remainder of that region were positive. Moving to Slide 10. As I mentioned, first quarter operating profit increased by 2% on favorable price and volume. Price realization was slightly better than we had anticipated. Manufacturing costs remain elevated, but in line with our expectations primarily due to continued material and freight cost headwinds. SG&A and costs increased partly due to investments in services and technologies such as digital, autonomy and electrification. Our first quarter adjusted operating profit margin was 13.7%, a 210 basis point decrease versus the prior year. As we said in our fourth quarter 2021 earnings call, we expected the largest margin headwinds to occur in the first quarter. First quarter margins were lower than the prior year. Favorable price realization did not offset higher manufacturing costs, but did improve compared to the fourth quarter of 2021. Margins were slightly better than we had anticipated on stronger price and volume partially offset by higher than expected short-term incentive compensation. I will discuss our expectations for the second quarter and full year margins in a bit more detail later. Moving to Slide 11, let’s review segment performance starting with Construction Industries. Sales increased by 12% in the first quarter to $6.1 billion primarily driven by favorable price realization and strong sales volume. End-user demand improved in three of the four regions. North America had the highest sales growth in sales dollars, a 28% increase, as non-residential demand improved and residential construction remains strong. Sales in Latin America increased by 60% as construction activity supported higher demand, EAME sales increased by 18% primarily due to growth in residential construction demand. However, Asia-Pacific sales decreased by 21% due to a reduction in sales in China, which had a very strong quarter a year ago. The segment’s first quarter profit increased by 1% versus the prior year to $1.1 billion. Price realization and higher sales volume drove the increase more than offsetting increases in manufacturing costs. Price realization was stronger than we had anticipated but lagged manufacturing costs in the quarter. The segment’s operating margin decreased by 180 basis points to 17.3%. Turning to Slide 12. Resource Industries sales increased by 30% in the first quarter to $2.8 billion. The improvement was mostly due to higher end-user demand, the impact from changes in dealer inventories and favorable price. End-user demand increased in heavy construction and quarrying aggregates as well as mining. First quarter profit for Resource Industries increased by 16% to $361 million. Higher sales volume and favorable price realization were partially offset by higher manufacturing costs and increases in SG&A and R&D expenses. Manufacturing cost increases were primarily due to freight and material. The segment’s operating margin decreased by 150 basis points versus last year to 12.8%. Now on Slide 13. Energy & Transportation sales increased by 12% to approximately $5 billion with sales up across all applications. This included a 4% sales increase in oil and gas, including aftermarket parts for reciprocating engines. Power generation sales increased by 5%. Small reciprocating engine sales improved. Solar turbine sales were lower in the quarter for oil and gas and power generation applications, impacted by a higher-than-usual first quarter in 2021. Industrial sales rose by 25%, with strength across all regions. Finally, transportation increased by 9% on reciprocating engine cells for both aftermarket parts and marine applications. Profit for Energy & Transportation decreased by 20% to $538 million. Higher sales volume and price realization were more than offset by higher manufacturing costs, reflecting continued headwinds from freighter material. In addition, SG&A and R&D expenses increased. The segment’s operating margin decreased by 430 basis points versus last year to 10.7%. Let me take a moment to provide a bit more color on Energy & Transportation margins. Seasonally, first quarter margins are typically lower compared to the rest of the year in this segment. However, the first quarter of 2022 proved a bit more challenging due to continued supply chain constraints, including elevated freight and material costs. I’ll discuss very generally, but note that increased freight costs have impacted this segment more than others. Also, Energy & Transportation took price increases later in the year 2021 given the different marketing dynamics as compared to the other primary segments. However, similar to the other segments, we expect margins to improve through 2022 as the benefit of higher price realization starts to pull through. Moving to Slide 14. Financial Products had another good quarter. Revenue increased by 3% to $783 million. Segment profit decreased by 2% to $238 million. Whilst profit was down, this represents our second highest first quarter profit in 8 years. The decrease was mainly due to a higher provision for credit losses at Cat Financial related to reserves associated with Russia and Ukraine. Note, the Russian-Ukraine generally accounts for about 2% of Caterpillar’s enterprise sales and less than 1% of the Cat Financial portfolio. Demand for used equipment remained very strong in the quarter, and that helped mitigate the impact of higher provisions. Moving to our credit portfolio. It remains high quality as customers and dealers continue to perform well in the quarter. Past dues were 2.05%, the best first quarter performance we’ve seen in 15 years. That’s down 85 basis points year-over-year and up just 10 basis points compared to the fourth quarter, which had marked a 15-year low. While new business volume typically decreased versus the fourth quarter, this is typical seasonality. New business volume was our second highest first quarter performance in 8 years, second only to the prior year, which benefited from pent-up demand following COVID-related shutdowns. Regarding interest rate changes, we are in a good position as our matched funding strategy serves to mitigate that risk. We also maintained healthy spreads on new business. Now on Slide 15. We had an ME&T free cash outflow of about $400 million, a decrease of $2.1 billion versus the first quarter of 2021. Let me take a moment to discuss the changes. In a typical year, the first quarter is our weakest from a cash generation perspective, primarily due to the payment of our incentives. We paid approximately $1.3 billion in short-term incentive compensation during the first quarter compared to zero in the prior year. This accounts for the majority of the difference year-over-year. In addition, we continue to build production inventory in the quarter by about $1 billion, which contributed to a negative net working capital impact of approximately $600 million. Despite these first quarter impacts, we continue to expect to achieve our Investor Day free cash flow target of between $4 billion and $8 billion for the full year. Moving to shareholder return. We paid around $600 million in dividends during the first quarter. We also repurchased about $800 million worth of common stock supporting our objective to be in the market on a more consistent basis. Enterprise cash was $6.5 billion, a $2.7 billion decrease compared to the year-end. The $400 million free cash outflow and the $1.4 billion in shareholder returns accounted for the majority of the decrease in our cash position. In addition, we have moved some of our cash balances into slightly longer-dated liquid marketable securities in order to improve the yield on that cash. This amounted to about $800 million in the quarter. Now on Slide 16. In light of the current environment, including supply chain constraints, we continue to refrain from providing annual profit per share guidance. However, I do want to share some thoughts on the second quarter and the full year. The first quarter played out slightly better than we had anticipated on the top line, resulting from higher volume and better-than-expected price tailwinds. Supply chain challenges remained steady, which we expect to continue into the second quarter. Despite these challenges, we anticipate the top line will increase compared to the first quarter and continued strong end user demand and favorable price realization. Looking to the remainder of the year, our order books and backlog remain robust. We expect continued strong end-user demand and pricing, although supply chain challenges will impact the extent to which we will be able to fully meet demand. As I mentioned, we do not expect to see a significant benefit from dealer restocking in 2022. On margins, as we discussed in January, we do not expect a typical year. In a normal year, we’d see strong margins in the first quarter with margins decreasing sequentially through the fourth quarter. However, this year, we expect margins to improve in the second half of the year compared to both the first half and the comparable period of 2021 as the impact of price actions accelerate. Comparisons ease in the back half of the year as well as we let the manufacturing cost increases from the prior year. As Jim mentioned, we continue to expect price to more than offset manufacturing costs for the full year. Specific to the second quarter, we expect similar margins to the prior year as additional price actions should offset manufacturing cost increases. Looking at the second quarter by segment. We do expect margins in both Construction Industries and Resource Industries to be close to or higher than the prior year as price improves and manufacturing cost headwinds are in line with the first quarter. Margin in Energy & Transportation still lag the prior year as the timing of price actions is late as compared to the other segments. However, we expect the lag in the second quarter was not – will not be as significant as it was in the first quarter. As we move into the second half of the year in Energy & Transportation, we expect a reduction in expediting costs and an improvement in efficiencies. Increases in large engine and turbine volumes versus 2021 should also positively contribute to margins in the second half of the year. However, it’s important to note that the majority of our core investments related to the energy transition will impact this segment. Finally, to assist with more modeling, we currently expect to add accrual for short-term incentive compensation expense to be around $1.3 billion this year. We anticipate a global effective tax rate of around 24% and restructuring costs of approximately $600 million for the full year. Turning to Slide 17. In summary, we performed well in a challenging environment. End-user demand remains strong, and we realized $1.7 billion more in revenues. Sales and margins were slightly better than we expected. Looking ahead, comparisons ease in the second half of the year, and we expect to achieve our Investor Day targets of adjusted operating profit margins and ME&T free cash flow. And with that, we will take your questions.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from the line of Rob Wertheimer with Melius Research. Your line is now open.
Rob Wertheimer:
Thanks and good morning, everyone.
Jim Umpleby:
Good morning, Rob.
Andrew Bonfield:
Good morning, Rob.
Rob Wertheimer:
If I have it right, I think your backlog increased by the most in a decade, maybe one of the couple of best order quarters – implied order quarters you’ve had. And obviously, there is some moving parts you guys addressed the fact that you’d like to ship a little bit more. I don’t know if you can quantify that. I know you’ve done a lot of work with dealers, helping them forecast to get the right levels of inventory rather than too much or too little. I don’t know whether you can sort of give context around that backlog increase, how much more you would have liked to ship. Does dealer optimism drive a lot of it? Or is it really end user demand? Anything you can say to help us out? Thank you.
Jim Umpleby:
Thanks for your question, Rob. So just in terms of the backlog, the largest backlog increase was actually in Energy & Transportation and as orders continue to strengthen for both solar and for recip oil and gas. And as you know, those products tend to have longer lead times. Having said that, we are certainly working with our dealers to help them satisfy end-user demand. We do have a new S&OP process, and we do feel good about the quality of the orders that we’re getting in E&T and RI, again, which tend to have some of those longer lead times. So again, just a real positive backdrop moving forward.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Jamie Cook with Credit Suisse. Your line is now open.
Jamie Cook:
Hi, good morning and nice quarter.
Jim Umpleby:
Thanks, Jamie.
Jamie Cook:
Jim, I guess my question, I’ll direct it towards you because it’s with regards to the E&T and you used to run that business. So can you help me understand – the top line was a little lighter than I would have thought. What are you hearing from your oil and gas customers? And how does that impact the trajectory of growth for E&T this year? And then I guess, on the margin side, I understand the puts and takes with solar and pricing having to come through an investment. But is there any way you can help us with how to think about sort of E&T margins as we exit the year, I don’t know if it’s investment – some of the investments you’re making will sort of create pressure on margins, I guess, over the longer term, so, thank you.
Jim Umpleby:
You bet. Oil and gas customers do continue to display capital discipline. However, we are encouraged by the improvement in orders for both recip and solar. As I mentioned earlier, those products tend to have longer lead times. Higher oil prices are leading to increased utilization and refurbishment of frac assets, and it’s an improved opportunity for pump and flow iron as well. Then in terms of your question around margins, as you can imagine, as volume increases in solar and oil and gas, that will help. Also, we’ve mentioned previously that we took price action in Energy & Transportation around engines later than we did machines. And as those price actions continue to take effect that will also help margins as we move throughout the year.
Jamie Cook:
So no structural headwind to margins.
Jim Umpleby:
Again, certainly, we’re making investments in sustainability and some of the things we’re doing there around alternative drivetrains. So we’re making those investments. But again, the other side of it is, of course, improving volume and price.
Jamie Cook:
Okay, thank you.
Andrew Bonfield:
And as I indicated, Jamie, we would expect just the same for the other segment’s margins to improve in the second half of the year in Energy & Transportation.
Jamie Cook:
Okay, thanks.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Mig Dobre with Baird. Your line is now open.
Mig Dobre:
Thank you for the question. Appreciate it. I guess maybe a question for Andrew. Looking to kind of clarify some of your comments. In terms of price realization, I guess you were pretty clear that this continues to build momentum. You talked about E&P. I’m curious as to how you’re thinking about variable manufacturing costs sequentially, second quarter and the back half of the year, recognizing that the comps are a little bit different, but obviously, input costs have changed a little bit versus previous assumptions given all that’s been happening in the world. So how should we think about that framework?
Andrew Bonfield:
Yes. So if you’ll recall, I think, fourth quarter, we had about $600 million of price and about $800 million increase in manufacturing costs. Obviously, this quarter was a similar level in manufacturing. Cost increases and price was a little bit better at $700 million. We thought we would probably be about around the same in the first quarter as we have been in the fourth quarter. We also indicated that we would expect manufacturing cost increases to continue at this sort of level for the – at least Q1 and Q2 and then moderate as we get into Q3, Q4, because of the impact of lapping the increases that have occurred in Q3, Q4 of the previous year. Yes, it is likely that those costs will be slightly higher than we had originally anticipated back in January because, obviously, the input costs are continuing to grow. However, we have taken extra price actions. So that’s why we’re still more than comfortable that price will more than offset manufacturing cost increases for the year. So that will be probably the way I would look at it as we go out for the remainder of 2022.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Steve Volkmann with Jefferies. Your line is now open.
Steve Volkmann:
Thanks. Good morning, everybody. Jim, I think in your prepared comments, when you were speaking about Construction Industries, you mentioned a couple of times support of commodity prices was helping demand there. And I’m curious for a little more detail. Can you just talk about how much of CI you think is kind of driven by commodity prices and sort of how that unfolds going forward?
Jim Umpleby:
Yes, Steve, I believe I mentioned commodity prices being supportive of RI as opposed to CI. But just to talk about CI a bit. Again, we talked about residential, non-residential improving infrastructure investments being made by various governments around the world. So, those are all tailwinds for CI. The commodity prices certainly are supportive of investment in RI and of course, E&T as well with oil prices.
Steve Volkmann:
Okay, thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of David Raso with Evercore. Your line is now open.
David Raso:
Hi, good morning. Given the last 3 months, it seems like a theme that maybe people would have expected 3 months ago was sort of a rebirth of old energy, let’s call it. You mentioned a bit about oil and gas picking up on the recip side and maybe the turbine activity and the order book at least. I’m curious on the mining side. Can you give us a little more color on any change in tone? And obviously, coal comes to mind. But even more broadly, what are you hearing in the last 3 months? Any tone change, in particular on some of the old energy customers?
Jim Umpleby:
Well, thanks for your question, David. And as we’ve been talking about for a couple of years, we’ve been expecting moderate increase over time in mining, and that’s really how it’s played out. Our customers are continue to display capital discipline. But in fact, we’re seeing investments we’re seeing new orders for trucks. Parked trucks remain at low levels as utilization increases. In terms of coal, certainly, coal prices have been up for the last year or so remains to be seen exactly how this plays out. If there are prolonged restrictions on natural gas, we’re seeing in Europe and other places, there, in fact, could be increased demand for coal. But having said that, again, we’ve seen improved coal prices over the last year. And so commodities in the sector have been supportive of investment across a wide range of commodities, and I put coal in that bucket as well.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Tami Zakaria with JPMorgan. Your line is now open.
Tami Zakaria:
Hi, good morning.
Jim Umpleby:
Good morning.
Tami Zakaria:
Can you update us on your services business? What was the growth in that segment in the quarter? What’s the total dollar size of the services segment now versus your Investor Day targets? And what are you expecting for services in 2Q and the rest of the year?
Jim Umpleby:
You bet. Well, we’re pleased with services growth in the quarter. We released the annual services sales and revenues once a year. And so we will do that in January for full year 2022. Having said that, we continue to make progress with our various initiatives. We’re pleased at the way things are going, and we’re still driving towards that target of doubling services sales between 2016 and 2026.
Tami Zakaria:
Got it. Thanks.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Chad Dillard with Bernstein. Your line is now open.
Chad Dillard:
Hi, good morning, guys.
Jim Umpleby:
Hi, Chad.
Chad Dillard:
So I just want to go back to your comments about improving orders on the recip and solar side. And I was just hoping you could talk about how Cat is set up for this upcoming oil and gas CapEx cycle versus prior years. Maybe you can talk about just from a product standpoint or even just like how much extra wallet share you can capture now that you have – we are under the fold. And just any interesting like productivity-enhancing technology that you have now that you didn’t before that would set you apart versus your competition?
Jim Umpleby:
Well, thanks for your question, and we do feel good about our competitive position. Just starting quickly with solar, they have a strong – they have strong leadership in the market. And we are very pleased at the way they are positioned moving forward. On the recipe side, we made a number of changes. As you know, we made the acquisition of – from were, and we now have a more complete product line, which really does put us in a we believe in a strong competitive position as our customers work to reduce their carbon footprint as they increased oil and gas production And as you can imagine, particularly in North America, there is a real strong focus by our oil and gas customers to do that. So again, we feel good about the way we are positioned there with our portfolio now. E-fracking, we have gas engines being purchased by our oil and gas customers for e-frac. So, again, a whole variety of things going on there. Customers are buying our DGB engine, which allows them to substitute up to 85% diesel fuel with natural gas. So again, we believe we are quite well positioned.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Nicole DeBlase with Deutsche Bank. Your line is now open.
Nicole DeBlase:
Yes. Thanks. Good morning guys.
Jim Umpleby:
Good morning Nicole.
Nicole DeBlase:
Just maybe to look at the 2Q outlook and elaborate a little bit. I guess you guys said sales up Q-on-Q and 2Q and that’s kind of consistent with what’s normal in the business. I guess, if you were to think about that increase, is there any reason why the magnitude of the increase in 2Q would not reflect typical seasonality?
Andrew Bonfield:
I mean the one – the only small factor that I would raise, and it’s a very small factor, is that obviously, there is $300 million of extra inventories put out by CI very late in the quarter, which would otherwise not be a normal seasonal impact. So, that will impact a little bit of their reported revenues in Q2. Aside from that, we expect normal seasonality. As you know, demand is very strong for our product. The biggest challenge is actually being able to supply the market. We would be able to – if we have to put more products into the channel, we would sell more. So, that would be the really key factor there.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Ross Gilardi with Bank of America. Your line is now open.
Ross Gilardi:
Hi, good morning. Thanks guys.
Jim Umpleby:
Hi Ross.
Ross Gilardi:
So Jim, your North American construction, the retail sales growth, it improved quite a bit from Q4 to Q1, but it continues to significantly lag the growth for the national rental companies, particularly if you look at what United Rentals put up for rental revenue growth last night. I mean is there an accelerating structural change to rental over equipment ownership in this world we live in right now with all these supply chain issues? And anything you are working on with your dealers to better position Cat for this? Rental channel that’s been going on for an awful long time, but if anything, it seems like it’s accelerating right now. And just with that, your overall dealer sales decelerated to plus 3% versus plus 5% last quarter. Does that number get worse and potentially go negative again before it gets better, or do we see a reacceleration in Q2? Thanks.
Jim Umpleby:
Well, thanks for your question. Firstly, in terms of demand for CI in North America, it is quite strong. And as I mentioned earlier, supply chain challenges prevented us from having even higher sales in the quarter. Having said that, Caterpillar has a strong rental business. If you add up Cat dealers across North America, it is a strong business and something our dealers are very focused on. And we have a relatively new rental leader, so we are working on improving our capabilities there. Having said that, the real issue is supply chain. So if we had, in fact, more product, we could have more product in the rental fleets, and our dealers have to make decisions between putting units in the rental fleet and selling to customers because demand is strong everywhere. And so really, this is a function of our ability to produce more product due to supply chain constraints as opposed to anything structural. Certainly, rental is important. It’s a growing part of the business, but it’s one that we believe we are very well positioned to participate in. The big issue we have at the moment is, again, the ongoing supply chain challenges, which we have been discussing.
Andrew Bonfield:
And then, Ross, on your question around on momentum, obviously, there were a couple of factors in Q1, which did cause a deceleration. I know you are looking at machines, not Energy & Transportation. Obviously, solar was the impact in E&T. And then, obviously, China was disproportionately, it was a very strong quarter in the comps last year, and that has a disproportionate impact, and we will need to see how that pans out in Q2. Overall, though, we do expect actually to see a very positives again in Q2 versus the comparable period.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Courtney Yakavonis with Morgan Stanley. Your line is now open.
Courtney Yakavonis:
Hi, good morning guys. Thanks for the question.
Jim Umpleby:
Good morning Courtney.
Courtney Yakavonis:
I was hoping if we can dig into resources a little bit more. Obviously, sales were much better than we were expecting this quarter. But in the slide deck, you called out heavy construction and quarry and aggregates ahead of mining. So, just wanted to understand on the OE side, is mining reflective of these numbers that we saw, or is that still a story that’s on the come? And then the incremental flow-through was also a little bit lower than we would have expected. And is that really just a reflection of these supply chain issues that we are seeing, or is that part of this also OE versus aftermarket mix happening? And finally, just – since much of the build this quarter that you mentioned in dealer inventories occurred in resources, just wanted to confirm that the 2Q comment that sales will be up also is applying to that segment as well.
Jim Umpleby:
Well, we remain positive about mining and continue to see increases in user demand. And again, it’s playing out much as we have been predicting the last couple of years with improving market conditions, improving orders and improving sales. So, we feel good about that CapEx is up. Commodity prices remain certainly supportive of investment, and we are seeing demand for both services, parts and new machines. Parked trucks remain at low levels. Utilization has been increasing and a lot of interest in our – in zero emissions as well. So, we have seen a lot of announcements there, things that we are doing with customers. Machine average age continues to increase. And so parts rebuilt in aftermarket services are expected to benefit from those aged fleets. So again, mining is playing out much as we had anticipated.
Andrew Bonfield:
Yes. I mean just in the quarter, obviously, we did see slightly faster growth in heavy construction and quarry and ag versus mining, but they were still both up very strongly. As regards the retail stats, obviously, the dealer inventory, the 300 – the approximately $300 million of units that are out there which are being reassembled by the dealers before being sold to the customer. Those will be reflected in retail units in Q2. So, that will help the overall retail stats for RI in the second quarter.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Seth Weber with Wells Fargo. Your line is now open.
Seth Weber:
Hey good morning. I just wanted to ask a question on pricing. I am really just trying to understand how dynamic is the pricing environment. I think pricing was up about 6% here in the first quarter. In the segment, you have talked about E&T pricing getting better through the year here. I mean is – could pricing in aggregate be up more than the 6% that you put – that you showed in the first quarter? I am just trying to understand how much flexibility you have to change pricing real time here through the second and third quarter?
Jim Umpleby:
Yes. The way we characterized it here, yes, we do expect price to more than offset manufacturing cost increases in 2022, and we expect more of an impact of pricing in the second half versus the first half. We continually monitor the marketplace in terms of what’s going on from a competitive situation. We obviously take into account what’s happening from a cost perspective as well. And we have the flexibility to do what we need to do, but we have taken pricing action. And again, the pricing actions that we have taken will have a larger impact in the second half of the year versus the first. But certainly, we always have the flexibility to do more if we believe that’s appropriate.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Steven Fisher with UBS. Your line is now open.
Steven Fisher:
Thanks. Good morning. So, it seems like you have raised your incentive compensation expectation for 2022. I think that will be kind of flat year-over-year. I think previously, it was expected to be a tailwind. But I guess the positive in that is now you must be expecting something better than your prior expectations. Wondering if you can just give us a bit of color on what the biggest things are that are contributing to that improvement in incentive comp payout for this year? I know you said kind of sales were better than expected in Q1, but it sounds like maybe that was a seasonal inventory build. So, what – are there other operational things that are now running better than you expected for the balance of the year? Thank you.
Andrew Bonfield:
Yes. So, obviously, as you know, our incentive compensation schemes use a variety of measures, not just operating profit, OPEC, services revenues, and there are other non-financial metrics that are out there. As we said, the performance for the first quarter was actually a little bit better than we expected not just from a revenue perspective, but also a little bit better on margins. And so that is reflective of where that’s feeding through into some of that incentive compensation change.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Tim Thein with Citigroup. Your line is now open.
Tim Thein:
Thanks. Good morning. So, a lot of good color on the dealer inventories. But I just wanted to ask Andrew, just about Cat inventories, which have continued to increase here. And obviously, the complexity of the supply chain is certainly having some impact. But I am just curious how should we think about that as we go through the balance of the year. And I am especially interested in how that the potential implications that have to the extent that’s not projected to grow further, what implications that will have just in terms of absorption and ultimately, incremental margins? Thank you.
Andrew Bonfield:
Yes. So Tim, I mean obviously, what we have been very clear on is in the situation where we are with the supply chain challenges switching off supply is not probably the best – it’s not a sensible thing because while you are waiting for individual components to arrive is better to make sure that you don’t end up with a shortage of something else as a result of switching off. So, we have built a little bit more production stores inventory than we would normally have. We did that at the end of 2020 as well, and that was a deliberate action reflecting the fact that we expected an upturn. Obviously, that has continued. We know that the demand is out there. So, we know we will be able to burn off pretty quickly as and when we are able to work through all the other supply chain challenges that are out there. Our expectation is, obviously, we saw builds in Q1 aim is probably to be more neutral on working capital for the full year. And obviously, we start to work some of that inventory down as we go through the remainder of the year. And obviously, then that can go through into positive cash momentum as we move into ‘23 and beyond.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Matt Elkott with Cowen. Your line is now open.
Matt Elkott:
Good morning. If I may switch it up a little bit and ask you guys about the locomotive market. Clearly, the new build market in North America has been largely non-existent for the last couple of years here. As we look forward to the next 2 years or 3 years, do you think the railroads might continue to hold off on new builds until they make up their mind on whether they want to go battery, electric, hydrogen or even cleaner diesel? And any updates on the upgrade market, which I think is like a services revenue for you guys would be helpful. Thank you.
Jim Umpleby:
Yes. Thank you. As you mentioned, certainly, the North American freight locomotive market is depressed. There is no question about it. We do have a services business that is doing well. We have hope for international this year as well. Hard to answer your question, it’s very difficult to predict what the railroads would do over the next couple of years. I mean we can – anyone on the call can build competing cases there for what’s happening. So, there is still parked locomotives. On the other hand, everyone knows what’s going on with some of the freight constraints in the U.S. as well. So, we will have to see how it all plays out. We are seeing interest in our battery electric locomotives that are used in switching applications. And we are pleased with that, and you probably have read about an agreement that we have to work on longer term solution for hydrogen-based locomotive as well. So again, very difficult to predict what the railroads would do, but I certainly concur that currently, the market for freight locomotives in North America is quite depressed.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of John Joyner with BMO. Your line is now open.
John Joyner:
Hi, good morning.
Jim Umpleby:
Good morning John.
John Joyner:
Maybe this is not a fair question in today’s environment. So, I appreciate some of the additional assumptions that you provided for the full year. But given that you have internal projections, do you anticipate eventually getting back to offering full year EPS guidance, maybe to help give investors some goalposts for the year and possibly avoid what can, at times, be a wide range of EPS estimates?
Andrew Bonfield:
Yes. I mean I think as you know, the challenge in the environment we are in at the moment is predicting what the likely outcome is going to be within a range that’s probably narrow enough for people to do. I mean unfortunately, part of the reason why your estimates are wide is because our estimates are wide as well because of the uncertainty. So, you have to take those into account. So, that’s part of the reason why we haven’t reinstated guidance. But I think it is one thing that we will come back to in due course as and when things stabilize in the external environment but not at this stage. There is – I have just had a written question and somebody just asked a question about retail stats and whether pricing is included in retail stats. Just to be clear, retail stats are dollar neutralized, price neutralized. Pricing is not in the retail stats. So, that is a pure volume number on a comparable basis.
Ryan Fiedler:
Operator, we have time for one more question.
Operator:
Your final question today comes from the line of Jerry Revich with Goldman Sachs. Your line is now open.
Jerry Revich:
Yes. Hi, good morning everyone.
Jim Umpleby:
Good morning Jerry.
Jerry Revich:
Jim, you have spoken about a steady recovery in resources. I am wondering if you could just update us on where lead times stand for large mining trucks today and the revenue level in the business is 50%, 60% below prior cycle highs. I am wondering if it’s fair to think about backlogs at comparable levels versus the last cycle as well. Thanks.
Jim Umpleby:
We brought and we say, as I mentioned earlier, certainly, mining is playing out the way we expected in terms of increased orders. Our lead times are not extended as anywhere near as much as they were during the prior peak a number of years ago, but we are working with our customers and are working very hard to meet their lead time requirements. And I think we are quite close to that.
Ryan Fiedler:
Go ahead, I am sorry.
Operator:
That concludes today’s Q&A. I turn the call back over to Jim.
Ryan Fiedler:
Great. Thank you. Thank you, Jim, Andrew and everyone who joined us today. A replay of our call will be available online later this morning. We will also post a transcript on our Investor Relations website as soon as it is available. You will also find the first quarter results video with our CFO and an SEC filing with our sales to use data. Click on investors.caterpillar.com and then click on Financials to view those materials. If you have any questions, please reach out to Rob or me. You can reach Rob at [email protected] and me at [email protected]. The Investor Relations general phone number is 309-675-4549. We hope you enjoy the rest of your day. Now let’s turn it back to Emma to conclude our call.
Operator:
Thank you for attending today’s conference call. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Welcome to the Fourth Quarter 2021 Caterpillar Earnings Conference Call. Please be advised that today’s conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Jennifer Driscoll. Thank you. Please go ahead.
Jennifer Driscoll:
Thanks, Emma. Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining the fourth quarter earnings call for Caterpillar. With me are Jim Umpleby, Chairman and CEO; Andrew Bonfield, Chief Financial Officer; Kyle Epley, Vice President of the Global Finance Services Division; and Rob Rengel, Senior Manager and Investor Relations. Earlier this morning, we issued our earnings news release. You can find the release and accompanying slides on caterpillar.com in the Investors section under Events and Presentations. In the back of the slide, you’ll find supplemental information on dealer inventory and order backlog. We’ve copyrighted this call. Please don’t use any portion without a prior written approval. Now on slide 2. During our call, we’ll make forward-looking statements. These are subject to a host of risks and uncertainties. For more information about the risks and uncertainties that could cause our actual results to vary materially from any forward-looking statements, please refer to our SEC filings, including our 10-Q filings for the most recent quarters. On today’s call, we’ll also refer to non-GAAP numbers. For a reconciliation of any non-GAAP numbers to the appropriate U.S. GAAP numbers, please see the appendix of the earnings call slides. This morning, we announced profit per share of $3.91 for the fourth quarter of 2021. That compares with a profit per share of $1.42 in the fourth quarter of 2020. Our adjusted profit per share was $2.69 in the fourth quarter of 2021 compared with $2.12 in the fourth quarter of 2020. Adjusted profit per share for both quarters excluded restructuring and mark-to-market gains or losses for remeasurement of pension and other post-employment benefit plans. In the fourth quarter of 2021, we had $1.19 per share of remeasurement gain and $0.03 per share of net restructuring income due to a gain on the sale of a facility. In the fourth quarter of 2020, we had $0.63 per share of remeasurement losses and $0.07 per share of restructuring expenses. Please keep in mind, to a date, we’ll announce our first quarter earnings, April 28, and we’ll host our next Investor Day, May 17th. And with that, turn to slide 3. We’ll give the call over to Jim Umpleby.
Jim Umpleby:
Thank you, Jennifer. Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us. I’d like to start by recognizing our global team for their continued resilience and hard work in what proved to be a challenging and dynamic environment. We’re proud that we achieved our best year on record for employee safety for the third year in a row. In 2021, we continue to execute our strategy for long-term profitable growth while striving to meet strong customer demand. I’ll briefly cover a number of topics. I’ll start with my perspective on the quarter, then I’ll give a brief update on our supply chain, followed by comments on services and our end markets before closing with an update on Caterpillar’s sustainability journey. We were encouraged by the continued strong customer demand in the quarter. Sales and revenues rose in all regions and in the three primary segments due to volume gains and favorable price. And similar to the third quarter, absent the continuation of supply chain constraints, our top line would have been even stronger. On the other hand, our margins were lower than we expected, primarily because of two factors. First, freight costs were higher than expected due to inflationary pressures as well as our decision to increase the use of premium freight to meet as much customer demand as possible. The second factor was production inefficiencies. As I mentioned, underlying demand is stronger than we can currently supply due to ongoing supply chain constraints. We made the decision to keep our plants open and fully staffed to best serve our customers and meet as much demand as possible. We believe it’s the right decision to encourage some short-term margin impact rather than take actions that might limit our ability to more fully satisfy demand when supply chain conditions start to improve. We also continue to redirect components all through our assembly processes and optimize where we can. Some of these actions aimed at maintaining our production flexibility come with additional short-term costs. When the supply chain bottlenecks begin to ease, we expect to be well positioned to increase our production to more fully meet demand and gain operating leverage from higher volume. Material costs also impacted us this quarter, but unlike freight and inefficiencies, it was within the range we had anticipated. As you know, we implemented price increases during 2021. We’re taking further action in 2022 with the intent to offset the impact of underlying inflation. That’s the general picture. Andrew will provide more details on our margins and how the combination of supply chain pressures and pricing will likely affect the cadence of our quarterly margins in 2022. Now on slide 4. Our top line rose by 23%. The primary drivers of the volume gains were increases in sales to users, including the original equipment and services and changes in dealer inventory. For the full year 2021, services sales grew 17% to $19 billion. Services growth in 2021 benefited from investments in our digital capabilities and the increased focus we and our dealers placed on meeting customer needs for services, particularly aftermarket parts. We saw significant increases in 2021 in e-commerce sales and sales of customer value agreements or CVAs and in prioritized service events or PSEs. In 2021, our e-commerce orders increased significantly, and now we have critical mass in connectivity with more than 1.2 million connected assets. It’s encouraging to see services sales in 2021 higher than in 2019 when our total company -- while our total company sales in 2021 remained lower than in 2019. We continue to strive to meet our aspirational target of doubling services to $28 billion by 2026. Compared with the fourth quarter of 2020, sales to users rose 7%. Gains were across the three segments. For machines, including Construction Industries and Resource Industries, sales to users rose 5%. For Energy & Transportation, sales to users increased 12%. Sales to users in Construction Industries rose by 4%, with double-digit growth in EAME and Latin America. In North America, residential construction remained strong in the elevated housing construction, while nonresidential demand continued to improve at a slower pace. In Asia Pacific, end-user demand slowed, reflecting the expected moderation in China construction. However, excluding China, sales to users were positive in Asia Pacific driven by favorable commodity prices and government stimulus. In Resource Industries, sales to users rose by 10%. Mining saw healthy gains in the quarter, supported by strong commodity prices and the replacement of aging equipment. Sales to users increased versus the prior year in heavy construction and quarry and aggregates for the third straight quarter. In Energy & Transportation, sales to users were up across all applications versus the prior year. We saw double-digit growth in industrial and transportation, although from a low base. We experienced strength across many applications for industrial, and international rail deliveries benefited transportation sales as expected. Oil and gas grew from demand for both reciprocating engines and turbines. Finally, power generation sales to users increased as data center demand remains strong. Overall, total sales to users growth in the quarter moderated versus the second and third quarters. As a reminder, the impact of the pandemic lessened in the fourth quarter of 2020. In addition, the supply chain challenges have constrained our ability to fully meet end-user demand. As independent businesses, dealers make their own decisions about their inventories. Changes in dealer inventories drove about a $1 billion tailwind to sales compared with last year. Dealer inventory was nearly flat in the fourth quarter compared with the third quarter of this year. In the fourth quarter of 2020, dealers decreased their inventory by about $1.1 billion. To put it in context, our year-end dealer inventory in 2021 also finished about flat with year-end 2020, as we expected. Dealer inventories are generally near the low end of the typical range due to strong customer demand and our supply chain challenges. Currently, availability is extended for some products due to the shortage of semiconductors and other components. With the exception of China, end-user demand for our equipment remains strong. Turning to slide 5. In 2021, we met our 2019 Investor Day target for adjusted operating profit margins for the third year in a row. We also met our target for free cash flow for Machinery, Energy & Transportation or ME&T. Our strong cash flow enabled us to return $5 billion to shareholders this year through dividends and share repurchases. We paid a higher dividend annually for 28 consecutive years and are proud of our status as a dividend aristocrat. We expect to continue to return substantially all of ME&T free cash flow to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases over time. Next, on slide 6, I’ll share some high-level assumptions for the full year. First, in 2022, based on what we know today, we expect to achieve our Investor Day targets for adjusted operating profit margins and ME&T free cash flow. That said, the environment remains uncertain due to COVID and other issues, including continuing supply chain disruptions, freight and material cost inflation and labor availability. Our focus is long-term profitable growth. Despite the challenging environment, we continue to invest in services, electrification, autonomy, alternative fuels and digital technology, all of which support our strategy. Now, I’ll describe our outlook for key end markets this year. Demand remains strong as demonstrated by robust orders. In addition, we’re receiving positive input from our customers and dealers. A key variable remains the supply chain, namely to what degree can we fully meet strong customer demand. In Construction Industries in North America, residential construction continues to be the main growth engine with nonresidential also improving. We believe the U.S. Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act will begin to fuel increased investments in capital equipment late this year, into 2023 and beyond. In China, we expect the industry for excavators above 10 tons to return to 2019 levels, reflecting weakness in housing construction. We expect the balance of Asia Pacific to have good growth, fueled by higher investments in infrastructure. Turning to EAME. Positive fundamentals include government stimulus actions, construction confidence, new orders and commodity prices. Latin America is expected to benefit from construction activity in mining, supported by commodity prices, although strong inflation could make it more challenging. In Resource Industries, we anticipate elevated commodity prices will support continuing improvement in demand for mining products and services. We also expect growth in heavy construction and quarry and aggregates to continue in 2022. We now currently operate autonomously on 18 sites on 3 continents with more than 500 large mining trucks and have now moved more than 4 billion tons. Technology and autonomy offerings deliver significant benefits across the board, from boosting safety and productivity to more consistent and efficient operations. Autonomous operations enable higher machine utilization, leading to reductions in idle time and nonproductive fuel burn. In Energy & Transportation, we see improved sales across most applications, and we had strong order rates, including for large engines in the fourth quarter. While we expect our oil and gas customers to continue to display capital discipline, we do expect growth in our reciprocating engines and aftermarket services for oil and gas. We see growth in reciprocating engines for power generation with strength across many applications. Industrial, which includes engines for our own equipment and loose engines sold to customers, is projected to grow across many applications, including construction, agriculture and electric power. We expect a modest increase in transportation, primarily in rail services. We also anticipate growth in Marine from a low base as customers update aging fleets. In 2022, Solar is expected to be impacted by the dampening industry cycle. We expect Solar’s new equipment sales to be lower this year, which will be partially offset by continued services growth. Solar is experiencing healthy inquiry activity, which indicates the likely recovery in customer deliveries in the late 2022 and into 2023. Now on slide 7. We significantly advanced our sustainability journey in 2021, and we continue to focus on this important element of our strategy. In 2021, Caterpillar and our customers announced a number of projects that will help contribute to a lower carbon future. I’ll highlight several more that occurred since our last earnings call. In November, Newmont announced a strategic alliance with Caterpillar to deliver a fully automated zero-emissions mining equipment and technology. The investment encompasses a U.S. surface mine and an Australian underground mine while also deploying Caterpillar MineStar across all Newmont sites. We also announced a three-year collaboration with Microsoft and Ballard to demonstrate a power system with large format hydrogen fuel cells to produce backup power for Microsoft data centers. Caterpillar is providing the system integration, electronics and controls that form the central structure of the power solution, which will be fueled by low carbon intensity hydrogen. The project is backed by the U.S. Department of Energy. In December, Progress Rail entered into a memorandum of understanding with BNSF and Chevron to advance the demonstration on BNSF’s line of a locomotive powered by hydrogen fuel cells. Progress Rail plans to design and build a prototype hydrogen fuel-cell locomotive with Chevron developing the infrastructure to support it. Earlier this month, Teck Resources, one of Canada’s leading mining companies, announced a partnership with Caterpillar to deploy 30 zero-emissions large haul trucks, including Cat 794 ultra-class trucks at their mining operations beginning in 2027. This collaboration will support their goals to reduce the carbon intensity of their operations by 33% by 2030 and be carbon-neutral by 2050. And finally, Union Pacific is purchasing 10 Progress Rail battery-electric locomotives, making them our fourth customer for this new technology. In railroads, in California, in Nebraska, they will be tested in diverse weather conditions and evaluated for broader deployment in support of Union Pacific’s emissions reduction goals. We’re excited about the opportunities associated with the energy transition, which includes rising demand for commodities used in electric vehicles and other applications, benefiting Resource Industries. The significant infrastructure investments associated with the energy transition also support growth in Construction Industries. In addition, the increased demand for a number of products in our Energy & Transportation segment, including distributed power generation and our integrated systems and solutions to help our customers meet their climate-related objectives. Caterpillar continues to invest in research and development to support a wide variety of fuel types, energy storage and hybrid solutions. In summary, we’re continuing to execute our strategy for long-term profitable growth. The three core elements of the strategy remain
Andrew Bonfield:
Thanks, Jim, and good morning, everyone. I’ll begin with a recap of Caterpillar’s fourth quarter results, including the performance of each segment, then I’ll comment on the balance sheet and cash flow, before concluding with a few assumptions about the first quarter and full year of 2022. Starting with the fourth quarter on slide 8. Our sales and revenues rose by 23% or $2.6 billion to $13.8 billion. Volume growth led the way and was broad-based as demand remained strong. Operating profit increased by 17% to $1.6 billion as volume growth and favorable price were partially offset by freight, material and short-term incentive compensation headwinds. As Jim has mentioned, operating margins were lower than we had anticipated, primarily due to elevated freight costs and plant inefficiencies, which I’ll discuss further in a few moments. Fourth quarter profit per share was $3.91 compared to $1.42 last year. We had our usual impacts from mark-to-market accounting for remeasurement of pension and OPEB plans. That included $1.19 per share favorable in the fourth quarter of this year compared to $0.63 per share unfavorable last year. Restructuring was actually a net income of $19 million in the quarter, due to the gain on the sale of the facility. In addition, some of our planned restructuring activities that we’d originally expected to complete in the quarter will push back into 2022. We reported adjusted profit per share of $2.69 in the fourth quarter compared to $2.12 last year. This performance included a lower-than-expected global tax rate and some discrete tax items, which, together, added approximately $0.36 to fourth quarter profit per share. Now on slide 9. As we had anticipated, the top line for the fourth quarter was the strongest of the year, coming in slightly better than normal seasonality would imply. Dealer inventory provided about a $1 billion tailwind versus the comparable quarter in 2020 when dealers reduced their inventories by $1.1 billion. Sales to users growth decelerated a bit sequentially, but remained strong despite a tougher comparison period, particularly in China. Price realization strengthened as we saw the benefit of additional price actions begin to flow through. Services continue to be a bright spot. I want to take a moment to provide some color on dealer inventory. Caterpillar dealers typically hold between 3 and 4 months worth of inventory based on projected sales for the next 12 months. For the past year, they’ve been near the low end of that range. Because of strong sales to end users and supply chain constraints, dealers have prioritized customer orders over building inventory. As a result, dealers have been unable to restock as would have been their normal practice. Given the current constrained environment, we don’t expect to see a significant benefit from dealer restocking in 2022. Fourth quarter sales and revenues increased in every region. In North America, our largest region, sales increased by 27%, with strong growth in all three primary segments, but led by Construction Industries and Resource Industries. In EAME, sales rose by 24% as fundamentals remain strong. Latin America sales grew by 38% from a low base. Asia Pacific sales increased by 9% as gains in Energy & Transportation and Resource Industries more than offset lower revenues in Construction Industries. Excluding China, Construction Industries sales in the regions grew versus the prior year’s quarter. Just to remind you, the quarterly sales profile for China in 2020 was very different from the normal seasonable pattern, with a strong second half due to the timing of stimulus activity. In 2021, we have returned to the more typical profile of a stronger first half of the year ahead of the selling season. This is made for a particular tough comparison as China sales were abnormally strong in the fourth quarter of 2020. Now, let’s review the bottom line on slide 10. Fourth quarter operating profit increased by $231 million or 17%. Compared to the prior year, strong volume and favorable price realization were the principal drivers of the increase. Higher manufacturing costs and SG&A and R&D expenses partially offset these gains. Acceleration in freight, manufacturing inefficiencies and material costs drove the manufacturing cost increases. The freight costs included both inflation and standard rates and the increased use of premium freight. The reinstatement of short-term incentive compensation had an impact on manufacturing costs and SG&A and R&D expenses, albeit at a slower rate than previous quarters. Beginning in the second quarter, we told you that we had expected price realization to offset higher manufacturing costs for machines in 2021. We have come up just short of that goal as the unfavorable impacts of rising freight costs and the manufacturing inefficiencies during the fourth quarter were more significant than we had expected. As we had noted previously, due to taking price action later in the year, we had expected a lag in Energy & Transportation price realization, so material cost increases and sharply rising freight costs negatively impacted Energy & Transportation’s margins more significantly than they did for the machine groups. Moving to margins. The adjusted operating profit margin was 11.4%, a decrease of 140 basis points, with short-term incentive compensation expense, a headwind of roughly 150 basis points of margin in the quarter. As both Jim and I have acknowledged, margins for the fourth quarter deteriorated by more than we had expected. To provide a bit more perspective, we typically see margins decrease sequentially by between 100 to 200 basis points from the third quarter to the fourth quarter. However, in the fourth quarter of 2021, the spike in freight costs, along with the plant inefficiencies that Jim described, caused an additional unfavorable impact of around 100 basis points or so. Most of this was due to the need to ship components using premium freight and factory inefficiencies that resulted from challenges caused by component shortages as we prioritize meeting customer demand. We believe that these margin headwinds are temporary and will only last as long as the supply chain challenges remain. Our price actions are designed to cover increases in underlying input costs, but do not anticipate factory inefficiencies or premium shipping, which had to be used to serve our customers. There’s no doubt that this will impact some part of 2022, but it’s impossible to be certain when these costs will abate. Now looking at the full year. Our adjusted operating profit margin was 13.7%. As Jim mentioned, we’ve achieved our 2019 Investor Day margin target of adjusted operating profit margins being 300 to 600 basis points better at a comparable level of sales to the reference period of 2010 to 2016. We’ve done so while investing in new product launches, services and sustainability. Of note, R&D expense, including higher short-term incentive compensation, increased by 19% for the full year. Our global effective tax rate for the fourth quarter was approximately 23% versus the 25% we had assumed previously. The improvement primarily related to changes in the geographic mix of profits from a tax perspective. Adjusted profit per share was $2.69, reflecting the stronger volume, favorable price as well as the lower-than-expected global tax rate. Moving to slide 11. Let’s take a look at the segment performance, starting with Construction Industries. Sales increased by 27% in the fourth quarter to $5.7 billion, primarily driven by strong sales volume and favorable price realization. The improvement in volume was due to a smaller reduction year-over-year in dealer inventories and higher end-user demand. End-user demand improved in 3 of the 4 regions. In North America, we saw our largest sales growth as nonresidential demand continued to improve, and housing construction remained supportive. End-user demand eased in Asia Pacific due to the challenging comparatives in China that I spoke about earlier. The segment’s fourth quarter profit increased by 25% to $788 million on higher sales volume and favorable price realization. Cost increases related to material and freight were more than offset by price increases. However, the segment’s operating margin decreased by 30 basis points versus last year to 13.7% due to the headwinds of factory inefficiencies and higher short-term incentive compensation expense. Turning to slide 12. Resource Industries sales increased by 27% in the fourth quarter to $2.8 billion. The improvement was mostly due to higher end-user demand and favorable price. End-user demand increased in mining as well as heavy construction and quarry and aggregates. Fourth quarter profit for Resource Industries increased by 12% to $305 million. Increased manufacturing costs, including freight and material costs, and higher SG&A and R&D expenses were more than offset by higher sales volume and favorable price realization. The increase in SG&A and R&D expenses was driven by investments and higher short-term incentive compensation. In Resource Industries, price realization takes longer to come through results because of the equipment’s longer lead times between the time of an order and date of delivery. However, as we progress through 2022, we expect more benefits to flow through from the price increases we have taken. The segment’s operating margin decreased by 150 basis points versus last year to 11.0%. Now on slide 13. Energy & Transportation sales increased by 19% to approximately $5.7 billion with sales up across all applications. That included a 22% sales increase in oil and gas, including aftermarket parts for reciprocating engines. Gas compression also supported reciprocating engine sales. Power generation sales increased by 7%, driven by reciprocating engine aftermarket part sales. Industrial sales rose by 29% with strength across many applications. Last, transportation rose by 17% on strong international rail deliveries and services in the quarter. Profit for Energy & Transportation decreased by 2% to $675 million. Volume and price gains were more than offset by higher manufacturing costs, short-term incentive compensation expense and investments in growth initiatives such as the energy transition. Keep in mind that the majority of our core investments in the energy transition, for example, in electrification, impact this segment. Freight cost increases were particularly significant in the quarter, driving the higher manufacturing costs. The segment’s operating margin decreased by 250 basis points versus last year to 11.8%. On Slide 14, financial products had a very strong quarter. Revenue increased by 4% to $776 million. Segment profit increased by 27% year-over-year to $248 million. The year-over-year profit increase was partly due to continued strong demand for used equipment, where worldwide sales -- new sales were our highest on record in 2021. The segment also benefited from a lower provision for credit losses at Cat Financial. Moving to our credit portfolio, it's in good shape as customer health indicators remain positive. Past dues continue to improve across all portfolio segments to 1.95%. That’s down 154 basis points year-over-year and down 46 basis points compared to the third quarter. It’s the lowest past due levels we’ve seen in 15 years. New retail lending hit an 8-year high in the fourth quarter. On slide 15, ME&T free cash flow was $1.8 billion in the quarter, an increase of about $116 million versus the fourth quarter of last year. The increase was due to higher profit adjusted for noncash items, which includes higher accruals for short-term incentive compensation. ME&T generated $6 billion in free cash flow this year, almost double compared to the prior year and in line with our Investor Day target of between $4 billion and $8 billion. We recently declared a quarterly dividend of $1.11 per share or around $600 million per quarter. In 2021, we paid around $2.3 billion in dividends. We are proud of our dividend aristocrat status, which we maintained following the 8% quarterly increase announced in June of last year. We completed $1 billion in share repurchases in the fourth quarter for a total of $2.7 billion in 2021. In aggregate, we returned $5 billion to shareholders, which represents 83% of our ME&T free cash flow for 2021. Over the past four years, on average, we’ve returned 99% of our ME&T free cash flow to shareholders. That aligns to our target to return substantially all of our ME&T free cash flow to shareholders over time. The Company ended the year with $9.3 billion in enterprise cash, a strong position. As always, given our captive finance organization, which helps our customers acquire our equipment, we continue to maintain a strong balance sheet as we prioritize our mid-A credit rating. Now on slide 16. In light of the fluid environment, we will continue to not provide guidance for our annual profit per share. However, to assist with modeling the Company, we’ll continue to share some high-level assumptions for the upcoming quarter and full year. Looking to the first quarter, we expect the top line to increase versus the prior year on stronger end-user demand and higher prices. We also expect to see a dealer inventory increase, which would follow our normal seasonable pattern as dealers prepare for the spring selling season. However, we anticipate that increase will be slightly less than normal, given the supply chain constraints and the high levels of committed orders. For the full year, we expect the environment to support strong end-user demand and higher pricing. The extent that we’ll be able to fulfill that demand will be impacted by the supply chain challenges we’ve discussed today. As these alleviate, we would expect to see an acceleration in sales to end users. As we have noted, our order books and backlog are robust, but we do expect the supply chain to constrain our volumes. Before I discuss margins, I want to highlight how unusual the last two years have been. In 2020, the full impact of the pandemic started to be felt from the first quarter -- end of the first quarter. Whilst demand started to improve through 2021, we then started to see the impacts of commodity and freight inflation as well as significant supply chain pressures build through the year. This makes our normal quarterly phasing more difficult to model as there are fundamental changes in the underlying comparatives that make historic norms less relevant. Let me explain. In 2021, pricing was slow to ramp up and picked up at the third and fourth quarters of the year following midyear and October price increases. From a cost perspective, material and freight costs were about flat in the first quarter and then ramped up through to be at their highest in absolute terms in the fourth quarter. So, that sets up our comparisons. Then this year, we will begin this year with a carryover pricing from midyear and October 2021. And then we expect to have additional pricing in 2022. That’s why we expect pricing to be more or less evenly spread across the quarters as we move through 2022. Then we will lap those rising material and freight costs and manufacturing inefficiencies as we move towards the back half of the year, so we will have easier comparisons. In a nutshell, we anticipate the greatest headwinds to margin in 2022 to occur in the first quarter. This is completely counter to the normal historic pattern of strong margins in the first quarter, with margins decreasing sequentially to the fourth. We expect those headwinds to margins to abate as the year goes on, as we realize more price and as we lap the higher costs. More importantly, we intend price increases to more than offset manufacturing cost increases in 2022, assuming the current level of supply chain disruption does not deteriorate. I’ll provide a few more key assumptions for you to keep in mind as well. Our short-term incentive compensation expenses anticipates to be around $1 billion for the year or $250 million per quarter. That’s a $50 million tailwind in the first quarter. Also, we’ll have about $1.3 billion cash outflow in the first quarter related to the payout of last year’s incentive compensation. We anticipate an increase in R&D, reflecting continued acceleration of investments related to initiatives such as sustainability, electrification and digital. Restructuring expense should be a headwind for the year. We anticipate around $600 million in restructuring expense in 2022 compared to $90 million in 2021. The increase is larger than usual due to the actions to address certain challenged products we’ve already announced, some of which were delayed a bit. Keep in mind that our adjusted profit per share calculation excludes restructuring costs. We also estimate prior restructuring actions will benefit 2022 by around $75 million. In addition, we assume an annual global effective tax rate of around 25%. Finally, we anticipate CapEx to be in the $1.4 billion range. Turning to slide 17. Let me recap today’s key points. We met our adjusted operating margin and ME&T free cash flow targets in a challenging year. End-user demand remained strong. And in a challenging supply chain environment, we kept our factories opened, maintained our production flexibility and recognized $2.6 billion more in revenues. We continue to execute our strategy for long-term profitable growth as we expand our offerings in preparation for the energy transition. We anticipate stronger sales volume in the first quarter versus the prior year, while margins will be pressured in the first quarter as costs remain elevated and the full benefits of pricing flow through evenly throughout the year. With that, I’ll take your questions.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from the line of Jerry Revich with Goldman Sachs.
Jerry Revich:
I’m wondering if you can update us on your order prospect pipeline in resources. Are you expecting an acceleration in replacement orders this year as the utilizations would suggest, or to what extent are replacement orders being held back by customers waiting for scaled zero-emissions products over the next couple of years?
Jim Umpleby:
Well, thanks, Jerry, for your question. So, as we’ve been discussing in the last several earnings calls, we’re positive about mining in just the general environment, everything from the energy transition, driving the need for more commodities is creating opportunities in mine. And we’re continuing to see strong inquiry and quotation activity and increase in orders as we discussed. So, certainly, we’re working very closely with our customers to help meet their emissions goals as well. There’s been a number of announcements I know you’re aware of over this year. So again, I don’t believe it’s holding up orders. We’re seeing orders play out much as we had expected, and we’ve been communicating with you over the last few calls. Generally, it’s -- we’re still on the path of expecting not a big spike up, but a continued gradual improvement in mining orders.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Robert Wertheimer with Melius Research.
Robert Wertheimer:
So, I wonder if you’d be willing to give us any expanded comments on aftermarket strategy. It’s good to see the growth. I don’t know where you stand versus your internal goals when you set this. I don’t know if you’ve identified all the workflows to get you to your 2026 goal, what those workflows are. I wonder if you could just give any more commentary on that. Thank you.
Jim Umpleby:
Well, thanks, Rob. We were encouraged to see the 17% increase this year up to $19 billion. And this is something that our company is very focused on. Our dealers are very focused on, and we’ve talked about a number of the things that we’re doing, everything from continuing to invest in our digital capabilities, using analytics or what we call PSEs or Prioritized Service Events to have sent targeted leads to our dealers, signing more CVAs, so that we have those contracts that helps us better serve the customer, minimize downtime, maximize equipment availability and capture more of the aftermarket of the well. So, it’s a win-win-win for the customer, for the dealer and for CAT. So, we are pleased with the progress that we’re making. I’m never satisfied that we’re moving fast enough in every area of the business. I want us to move faster, but I am very pleased to see the commitment by our dealers, the commitment by our by our teams to continue to execute on this initiative. And we said it wouldn’t be a straight line up. We knew we had to make a number of investments, and we’re making those investments and we are starting to see progress on the top line as well. So again, so far, so good. We know it would be a tough slog, but the whole company is aligned behind that goal.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of David Raso with Evercore.
David Raso:
If I heard you correctly about the first quarter margins expected to be down sequentially from the fourth quarter, that would put us 400 basis points down year-over-year or so in the first quarter. And I know it’s a difficult environment. So, we’re just trying to get some sense of the comments you made of price cost being positive for the year, and obviously, that gets stronger as the year goes on in that assumption. How would you characterize after that first quarter margin decline year-over-year on the prospects for full year margins getting back to flat?
Andrew Bonfield:
So Andrew, apologies if you heard that we were expecting margins to decline sequentially. Actually, we don’t. We expect them to be obviously impacted year-over-year as a result of the impact of higher manufacturing costs versus price. So, that actually, we do expect still sequentially, as you would normally see. Obviously, there’s normally a big ramp up between Q1 and Q4. We do expect overall that margin trend, we’ll see an increase, but it won’t be as big an increase as you would normally have seen. That impacts, obviously. And so, what we look at as we go through the year, and we’re thinking about, obviously, what we saw in the fourth quarter, price was favorable by just over $500 million, manufacturing costs adverse by about $800 million. We expect a little bit better price in Q1 because of the impact of the October price increase we put through. That will then help a little bit. Obviously, manufacturing costs will continue at a similar level because, last year, we actually had a small reduction in material costs in the first quarter. Freight did increase a little bit. So, there’ll be a little bit of change between those two, but that will be the impact. As we go through the year, obviously, we start to lap those very significant manufacturing cost increases that we saw in Q3 and Q4. So, the comps become easier, but price will remain pretty consistent throughout the whole year. And again, just to remind you, our expectation is that revenues will rise in 2022. And obviously, that does mean that obviously our margin targets will be impacted by that as a result of trying to maintain that comparable 300 to 600 basis points improvement versus the reference period of 2010 to 2016.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Jamie Cook with Credit Suisse.
Jamie Cook:
Just another question on the backlog. Obviously, it was very strong at $22.8 billion. Is there any way you could help us break down how that looks sort of by segment and to what degree the backlog is price protected? And then, I guess, historically, you’ve seen improvement in backlog or backlog is highest in the first and second quarters. Is that the way we should think about backlog this year on a seasonal basis? Thank you.
Jim Umpleby:
Good morning, Jamie. I’ll start, and then I’ll kick it off to Andrew. So, we do have a strong backlog, and the biggest increase was in E&T. And we feel good about that because in E&T, we tend to typically have a good line of sight to actual customer orders. So, we do feel positive about that. Now, let me Andrew take you there.
Andrew Bonfield:
Yes. So, on price protection, as you know, obviously, it depends segment by segment. We have a mix of some longer-term contracts where you do have escalators. But obviously, depending on the timing of an order, there will be some impact on backlog from pricing or price protection. Key thing to note and just to remind you is when we look at our overall expectations for what we see as manufacturing cost increases versus price, we do take into account any price protection when we’re looking and when we’re able to say, we intend obviously for price to more than offset manufacturing costs next year. That then takes into account those price protections we do have within that. And obviously, it depends by segment by segment. Obviously, if you’ve got a long-term mining order, that will have a different contractual response versus obviously something which is a Skid Steer, which is a retail type customer.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Larry De Maria with William Blair.
Larry De Maria:
You guys mentioned semiconductors in the prepared remarks. I think we’re all hearing mixed things, in some cases, get better, and in many cases, getting worse. Can you just talk to semi specifically, your outlook on the timing and magnitude of the improvements? And how much the inventory or is idled and waiting to go out the door because of semiconductor shortages?
Jim Umpleby:
Yes. Well, certainly, semiconductors have been a challenge for us. And I would not say that they are -- they have not started to get better from our perspective. Of course, it’s very difficult to predict when the improvement will occur, but it’s still creating a challenge for us. Semiconductors go into many kind of electronic commitments components, including engine controllers. And it’s one of the things that, as we look at margins in E&T in the fourth quarter, we talked about the premium freight. Part of that was a result of just because we couldn’t get engine controllers because the engine controller manufacturer couldn’t get semiconductors, we wind up air freighting more engines that both to internal and external customers than we had anticipated. So there’s a lot of experts out there making predictions on when things will start to improve. We haven’t seen that yet. We’re hopeful as we go through the year that that will improve, but we haven’t seen it yet.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Chad Dillard with Bernstein.
Chad Dillard:
So, I just wanted -- I was hoping you guys could talk about your volume production outlook for ‘22? What’s the current supply chain situation, can you grow production this year? And are there any segments that we’ll see better production growth versus others?
Jim Umpleby:
Yes. So, we certainly do expect to have higher production this year of -- again, I talked about the fact that customer demand is strong. That’s the positive story, and we’ve talked about the challenges with supply chain. So, it is difficult to predict the exact extent, and we’re not giving that kind of a number, but it really just comes down to supply chain. The demand is there.
Andrew Bonfield:
And I think just to add, the only area where obviously we are potentially seeing some slowdown will be probably in construction in China as we look in 2022. Everywhere else, it’s really across the board. We’re looking at good volume potential growth.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Nicole DeBlase with Deutsche Bank.
Nicole DeBlase:
Just focusing a little bit on the comments on E&T facing the most price/cost headwinds. I guess, when we look forward into 2022, you mentioned a pretty -- a growing backlog there. Have you increased prices in backlog? And I guess, when should we start to see pricing show up and start to be reflected in improving sequential margins within the segment?
Jim Umpleby:
Thanks for your question. As I mentioned, we did not increase prices as quickly. So that the first price increase we had for machines didn’t apply to E&T just given the market conditions at the time that we were facing in E&T. Certainly, the world has changed since then with increasing oil prices and increasing demand. So we have taken price increases since then, and we intend to continue to work to offset input cost. And I’ll let Andrew comment in terms of when you may think those that will show.
Andrew Bonfield:
Yes. As we’ve indicated, obviously, as you go through the year, price will be pretty even throughout the year. But we do expect, obviously, as time goes -- as we go through the year, we start to let those manufacturing cost increases in the third and fourth quarter, we’ll see the benefit of that. The other thing, just always to remember within Energy & Transportation, one, it does have higher short-term incentive compensation. So therefore, as a percentage, that was more significant on E&T for the year as we look through in 2021. So obviously, that will no longer be a headwind in 2022 and also that E&T will be the area where we’re making investments, particularly in electrification. So, that will be the going the opposite way. But overall, price now is starting to flow through. And obviously, we do need to make sure that we get that to stick and to pull through into 2022.
Jim Umpleby:
And again, supply chain constraints will also have an impact, right? So supply chain constraints start to ease, that will help as well.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Ross Gilardi with Bank of America.
Ross Gilardi:
Just wondering if you could give a little color on what the $600 million of restructuring expenses are for? It seems like a big number. And then just on R&D spend, you alluded that it will be up this year. I mean, you’ve got a lot of exciting customer announcements on zero emissions, and you seem to be taking a pretty customized approach by customer and end market, which I think would be pretty expensive. And are you back above $2 billion in 2022? And do we get back to prior peak from 2012 of $2.5 billion in the next couple of years?
Jim Umpleby:
Yes. I’ll start with restructuring, and then I’ll toss it to Andrew. In terms of restructuring, you are we task our leaders to continually find ways to improve our competitiveness. And the increase that we talked about in 2022 is associated with some specific projects that we have going that we’ve known about for some time. And so, that really is the reason for that. In terms of a customized approach, I would say that certainly, we’re working to meet the unique needs of our customers, but there’s a lot of applicability across our products and across our customers for the solutions that we’re developing. So, you shouldn’t assume that each one is a one-off solution, although there’s a certain amount of uniqueness. If you think about a mine site, different mine sites will have different -- some mine sites will have grid availability, but not very many. Some, we’ll look at hydrogen. Some, we’ll look at electrification. So, there is some variability. However, having said that, a lot of the core technologies that we’re developing will be applicable across product lines and across segments. So, it’s not a complete customized approach. And I’ll let Andrew take it from there.
Andrew Bonfield:
Yes. Just on the -- again, just to add a little bit more color on the $600 million, the biggest single item there is a noncash item, which are relating to one of those challenged businesses, which, so therefore, will not actually result in a cash outflow but is effectively a part of the reason why it’s such a large charge. On R&D spend, there will be puts and takes as we move into 2022. One, there will be slightly lower short-term incentive compensation that will help. But obviously, that will be a sort of favorability on that. And then, obviously, there will be increased investment. But we don’t actually guide on an individual line item basis. But we do expect to continue to see good growth in R&D, and that’s important for us as we prioritize those investments. But that will make those investments necessary. And as we’ve always reminded you, part of the reason why we gave ourselves 300 basis points of flexibility within the margin target was to enable us to make those right sorts of investments to drive long-term profitable growth as we go through a cycle.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Tami Zakaria with JP Morgan.
Tami Zakaria:
So, this is more of a medium to long-term question. From your dealers’ perspective, I believe you mentioned dealer inventory will not be a significant benefit this year. But, do you see dealer inventory gradually making its way back to the pre-pandemic levels over time, or has anything structurally changed in their business to rebate it lower now that they’re learning to operate with less inventory?
Jim Umpleby:
Well, thanks for your question. So, the dealer inventory is towards the low end of the normal range, and it’s really a function of strong demand and the supply chain challenges that we’ve discussed this morning. We do expect, as the supply chain conditions start to ease, that they would get within a normal range. And we typically don’t think about it in terms of absolute dollar ranges. And if you’re thinking about a long term, it’s more how many months of a dealer has. So, again, dealer inventory will depend on a number of things. And assuming that we can supply everything they need, it will depend upon their view of the future, whenever it’s going to happen in that year and the next year. So again, as we mentioned, we don’t expect a significant change in dealer inventory this year. But assuming the supply chain conditions improve and based on the strong demand that we’re seeing, if that all continues, I would expect over time that dealer inventory would start to come up and get back into the -- more of the middle of the normal range.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Stephen Volkmann with Jefferies.
Stephen Volkmann:
I think you mentioned in your comments, Jim, that the infrastructure bill might start to benefit you in the second half of ‘22 and into ‘23. I’m wondering if you can just expand on that a little bit. I mean, how much of an improvement do you think this could be for you guys? Hopefully, you’ve had a chance to kind of dig through the bill by now. It’s just hard to figure out kind of what your exposure to that could be.
Jim Umpleby:
Well, thanks for your question. And as you say, it is a challenge to figure out the specifics. But, just given the amount of money that’s going to be invested and the way that our products are used for infrastructure, we do believe it will provide a bit of a tailwind for us. If nothing else, one of the things that it does is it provides more certainty to our customers, or if a contractor is trying to decide, in fact, they want to make a capital investment to buy a new machine, if they know there’s a high probability of a pipeline of work for several years, they’re much more likely to go ahead and pull the trigger and make that capital investment and buy the machine. So, we do expect -- again, it takes a while for these things to manifest themselves into projects than to orders to us, but we do believe, again, it will start to impact us towards the end of this year and into next year. So hopefully, with the supply chain challenges, hopefully, will ease by then, and we’ll be able to meet that increased demand. But we’re quite positive about the passage of the bill.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Courtney Yakavonis with Morgan Stanley.
Courtney Yakavonis:
If you could just expand a bit on the comment about pricing being relatively even through the year next year. Was that a comment meant to be about absolute level in pricing, or as we’re thinking about it, the year-over-year growth rate, which I think was about 5% to 6% for two of your divisions, and obviously, a little bit lower in E&T. Should we be thinking about that growth rate being constant through the year, or was that a comment more on the absolute level? And then, if you can also just expound a little bit on the thoughts for premium freights. I think you’ve been talking about freight costs all year. So, was this a significant difference in the fourth quarter with respect to premium freight? And if you can help us quantify how big of a impact that is relative to regular freight costs. Thanks.
Jim Umpleby:
Okay. So, let me start. So obviously, as you look through 2022, actually -- although we do see some variability quarter-on-quarter in sales volumes, actually, it’s not a huge variability. So actually, whether it’s absolute or in percentage terms, it’s not going to be a significant real variability change between the two. But as I say, we think we expect it to be pretty even. The reason being, obviously, you start lapping earlier price increases in 2021, as you go through 2022, then you have some long lead time items, which start to benefit. So, that’s part of that mix, which is why we think, overall, it will be pretty even throughout the year. Obviously, that is subject to not needing to put further price increases than we’re already planning in 2022 through. Obviously, that E&T, as we say, has been lower. But obviously, we expect E&T to catch up with the other segments, so there will be variation between the individual business units as we go through. RI was also slightly less than CI, for example, in 2021. Just on premium freight. I mean, interestingly, if you look at the actual dollar value, freight actually, versus material cost, is actually normally a very small number. And we have seen it really exponential rise in freight costs. A couple of factors. Obviously, as I pointed out, the underlying inflation has been significant, and that’s well reported and well recognized. And secondly, obviously, we’re premium freighting a lot more. That can be premium freighting for parts, some of which we will recover from dealers but some of it will also be premium freighting for components to keep the factories going. And always there, what you’re trading off is between the cost of holding the factory open and not working versus actually the cost of that freight. So it has increased a lot. If you remember my comments I mentioned about, we thought the margins were about 100 basis points worse than we had originally anticipated for the quarter in absolute terms. Part of that was freight and part of that was labor manufacturing inefficiencies is probably about half, half. So, it was probably 50 basis points in the quarter. So obviously, one of the things we’ll have to watch and keep an eye on is how do those bottlenecks, particularly on the freight side, unwind as we go through 2022 and also the supply chain bottlenecks as well, that will reduce the level of freight that we would need to use.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Joel Tiss with BMO.
Joel Tiss:
So, I know you guys are dancing around a little bit, but I think it would really help us a lot if you could just give us even if you -- how much you fuzz them up, kind of the size of the buckets about dollar-wise, how much dealer inventories are below normal? I know you said you don’t measure it that way. And how far below your potential like your production is versus kind of normalized levels? And is it $10 billion or $7 billion, or just any sort of an idea, I think, would be super helpful for everybody.
Andrew Bonfield:
Yes. Joel, I mean, just on dealer inventory. I mean, yes, they are, as we say, at the low end of the range. The reality is, given the current constrained environment, it’s not going to change in 2022. So, if I could give you a number, that will be speculating about 2023, and that would really depend on what they expect to see as far as revenues in 2023. So, I mean, if you were thinking about it from your modeling perspective, it’s not really going to be anything probably until at least 2023. And obviously, as we get an idea, we’ll be as transparent as we can. But in the current environment, it will be purely speculative to give you a number, but they are below where they would normally expect to be. So, that’s really the challenge. As far as production levels are concerned, the reality, obviously, is we can scale production. We are not running anywhere near capacity. So we have plenty of capacity to scale our production up. The question is really is around the supply chain’s ability to deliver that. And again, you’ve seen the increase in the backlog. Backlogs increased by $9 billion over the year. That is significant. Yes, we could supply -- we could produce more. But a lot of those items also are long lead time items. So a lot of that is within Energy & Transportation and within Resource Industries, which generally have a longer lead time anyway. So, again, it’s not a -- how much of that is production constraints versus real. I mean, revenues, remind you, did grow 23% in the quarter. So, to ramp up much further would be a little bit more challenging.
Jim Umpleby:
And again, one of the things that we’re doing is we’re focusing on meeting customer -- as opposed to redoing building dealer inventory, we’re focused on meeting customer needs, right? And so that’s really what we’re prioritizing with our dealers as we deal with the supply chain constraints.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Matt Elkott with Cowen.
Matt Elkott:
Can you guys talk about the impact on your overall pricing from lower China sales, just any way to better gauge the potential benefit on pricing? And the other part of my pricing question relates to the broader global construction equipment market. As China demand softens domestically, is there risk that their exports would increase enough to intensify the competitive pricing dynamic in regions outside China?
Jim Umpleby:
Well, I’ll answer the last part of the question first. We also have the ability to export outside of China. So that applies to us as well. So, it’s not just an issue of others being able to export out of China. We can do the same thing. If, in fact, we have in the supply chain constrained environment, additional capacity in China does allow us to export from there to meet other demands around the world. So, we’re in that same boat. I’ll let Andrew take the first part of the question.
Andrew Bonfield:
Yes. On geo mix, I mean, which obviously, as you know, does impact pricing, we did see a small benefit, obviously, as China reduces, but most of it actually, I remind you now that actually a lot of the machines we sell in China are actually the lower-spec GC and GX machines. So the impact on geo mix was slightly less than you would normally have anticipated in Q4.
Operator:
Your final question today comes from the line of Mig Dobre with Baird.
Mig Dobre:
Andrew, just a clarification maybe, on the manufacturing cost progression here, you had an $816 [ph] million headwind in the fourth quarter. And I believe I heard you saying that you’re expecting something similar in Q1. And I guess my own guess would have been that this figure would have been higher sequentially. So, kind of looking for you to maybe confirm that. And then, related to this, I’m curious as to how you all are planning your raw material purchases for 2022? I do understand that the comps are going to be different on manufacturing costs in the back half. But I’m curious, given what we’re seeing developing in steel markets, is it plausible that you’re actually seeing some benefit -- upright benefit in terms of year-over-year cost as the year progresses?
Andrew Bonfield:
Yes. So Mig, so first of all, obviously, remind you that actually fourth quarter from a sales and revenues perspective actually is our highest quarter. So actually, sequentially, we go down slightly in Q1 versus Q4. So, that is why we expect manufacturing cost increase to slightly moderate but not hugely versus what we saw in Q4. And then, as with regards to price decreases, input cost decreases, as you remember, we’ve told you before, we tend to have a three to six-month lag. We are still in a position where we are still dealing with price increases, some of those lags coming through. Obviously, if steel prices do continue to reduce, that potentially will be a benefit as we move into later this year. We’re not relying on that for our expectations for the year. Obviously, we’ll see how that pans out. But given that lag, it’s a little bit early for us to call to see that coming through. So, it would probably be -- if it would -- if it does come through this year, it will be very late in the year.
Jennifer Driscoll:
Well, thank you, Jim and Andrew, and everybody who joined us today. A replay of our call will be available online later this morning. We’ll also post a transcript on our Investor Relations website as soon as it’s available. In addition, you’ll find a fourth quarter results video with our CFO and an SEC filing with our sales-to-users data. Click on investors.caterpillar.com and then click on Financials to view these materials. If you have any questions, please reach out to Rob or me. You can reach Rob at [email protected] or me at [email protected]. The Investor Relations general phone number is 309-675-4549. We hope you enjoy the rest of your day and have a great weekend. And I’ll turn it back to Emma to conclude our call.
Operator:
This concludes today’s conference call. Thank you for attending. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Welcome to the Third Quarter 2021 Caterpillar Earnings Conference Call. Please be advised today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Jennifer Driscoll. Thank you. Please go ahead, ma'am.
Jennifer Driscoll:
Thanks, [Ali] (ph). Good morning, everyone. Thanks for joining Caterpillar 's third quarter earnings call. Our speakers today will be Jim Umpleby, Chairman and CEO and Andrew Bonfield, Chief Financial Officer. Also here with us for the call are Kyle Epley, Vice President of the Global Finance Services division and Rod Rengle, Senior Manager in Investor Relations. During our call this morning, we will discuss the earnings news release we issued earlier today. Note that we have slides to accompany our presentation in the appendix, you will see some additional information, including dealer, inventory and order backlog. You may find the news release, our slides, a video recap with Andrew Bonfield, and other important information at investors.caterpillar.com, simply click on Events and Presentations. We have copyrighted this call and ask you not to use any portion of it without our prior written approval. Moving to Slide 2, today we'll be making forward-looking statements. These statements are subject to a variety of risks and uncertainties. For information on some of the risks and uncertainties that could cause our actual results to vary materially from any forward-looking statements. Please refer to our SEC filings, including our Form 10-K for 2020, and our Form 10-Q s for the most recent quarters. We'll also make use of non-GAAP numbers. For a reconciliation of our non-GAAP numbers to the appropriate U.S. GAAP number, please see the tables in the appendix to the earnings call slides. This morning, we announced profit per share of $2.60 for the Third Quarter of 2021, compared with $1.22 for the Third Quarter of 2020. Our adjusted profit per share was $2.66 for the Third Quarter, compared with $1.52 in the Third Quarter of 2020. adjusted profit per share for both quarters excluded restructuring costs, which totaled $0.06 per share this quarter, and $0.18 per share in last year's quarter. Last year's quarter also excluded remeasurement losses of $0.12 per share resulting from the settlements of pension obligations. I do have two important calendar announcements. First, we recently selected our earnings dates for calendar year 2020. We show the dates on slide 20, starting with January 28th for our fourth quarter call, we hope you'll join us. Second, we plan to host our next Investor Day on Tuesday, May 17th, 2022, near our headquarters. The event also will be audio webcast and details will be provided closer to that time. So with that, please flip to slide three and we'll turn the call over to our Chairman and CEO Jim Umpleby.
Jim Umpleby:
Thanks, Jennifer. Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us. I'd like to start by thanking our global team for another good quarter. We continue to execute our strategy for long-term profitable growth, while working to mitigate the impact of supply chain challenges as we serve our customers. Before turning over the call to Andrew for a detailed review of our results I'll briefly cover three topics this morning. I'll start with my perspective on the quarter's results, including an update on the supply chain, I will then provide a few comments on the market conditions. I will finish with an update on recent developments concerning Caterpillar sustainability journey. Sales and revenues were higher in all segments and in all regions during the quarter. Customer demand and order rates were strong. We experienced supply chain challenges like many other industrial companies. We believe our sales in the third quarter would have been higher, if not for these issues. We are however pleased by our global teams ability to continue to execute in a challenging environment. Turning to Slide 4, the topline increased by 25%, primarily due to higher volumes, which was driven by strong end-user demand. Compared with the Third Quarter of 2020, sales to users rose about 14%. Sales to users rose in the three primary segments and in most regions. For machines sales to users increased by 17%. For Energy and Transportation sales to users increased 8%. Our assumption had been that third quarter growth in year-over-year sales to users would be significantly higher than the 15% growth reported in the second quarter. The growth rate in sales to users was less than we assumed at 14%, as Construction Industries grew a bit slower than the second quarter pace. This was primarily due to constraints in the supply chain, which I'll cover in a moment. In Resource Industries and Energy and Transportation, the gross rate in sales to users accelerated on a sequential basis. On a year-over-year basis, sales to users grew in all segments, in all regions, except Asia Pacific, driven by China, which was a bright spot in the third quarter of last year. We remain optimistic about demand in our three primary segments for the remainder of the year. Dealers, each of whom are independent businesses, decreased inventory by $300 million in the Third Quarter versus a decrease of $600 million in last year's Third Quarter. To put it in context, dealer inventory is about flat versus year end 2020. Reported revenues for the quarter also benefited from growth in services, favorable price, and currency. Turning to the supply chain, our global team works to mitigate the challenges we encountered in the Third Quarter, which were more significant than we expected. Our suppliers also experienced availability issues and freight delays leading to pressure on production in our facilities. We put control towers in place to spotlight areas of concern across our operations and our value chain. We've proactively redirected components and altered our assembly processes as much as possible to keep output flowing. In addition, Caterpillar inventory grew by about $1 billion in the third quarter compared to the second quarter of 2021. Of the $1 billion increase, over half was an increase in production inventory. Our team continues to work closely with our suppliers to mitigate supply chain impacts on production. We experienced rising material and freight costs during the quarter. We continue to take appropriate price actions in response to rising costs and are monitoring the situation. Operating profit for the third quarter increased by 69% to $1.7 billion. The increase in operating profit came from higher volume, favorable price, and restructuring costs that were lower than last year. The adjusted operating profit margin improved to 13.7% up 260 basis points versus 11.1% in the Third Quarter of last year. That's despite the reinstatement of short-term incentive compensation this year. Margins were slightly stronger than we expected. Compared to the prior year operating profit margins expanded in each of the three primary segments. Our profit per share was $2.60 versus $1.22 in the third quarter of 2020, the adjusted profit per share was $2.66 versus $1.52 in the third quarter of last year. Now on slide five, ME&T free cash flow for the quarter of around $800 million reflected higher volumes. Those benefits were partly offset by the increase in Caterpillar inventory. We completed $1.4 billion in share repurchases this quarter. We also returned about $600 million in dividends to shareholders, reflecting the 8% dividend increase we announced in June. We paid a higher dividend annually for 27 consecutive years, and we remain proud of our status as a dividend aristocrat. We continue to expect to return substantially all of our ME&T free cash flow to shareholders over time through dividends and share repurchases. Turning to Slide 6. Let me share a few high level assumptions about the full year. Looking at 2021 as a whole, we still expect to achieve our Investor Day target for adjusted operating profit margins of 300 to 600 basis points of improvement versus our performance during the reference period of 2010 to 2016 at a similar level of sales. We also expect to achieve the free cash flow targets we set of an incremental $1 to $2 billion annually versus our cash flow performance during 2010 to 2016. Please turn to Slide 7. Overall, we remain optimistic about global demand which has remained strong. However, supply chain challenges may impact our ability to fully meet customer demand. In Construction Industries, we remain positive as we've seen end-market demand increase in most regions. In North America, residential construction continues to be a strong driver of industry growth. Non-residential is also improving, although activity remains below pre -pandemic levels. We're hopeful that Congress passes the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, which could boost customer confidence and help support future demand. In China, we continue to expect the industry for excavators above 10 tons to be about flat in 2021 with declines in the second half of the year offsetting growth in the first half. Outside of China, we expect the Asia Pacific region to remain strong in the fourth quarter, backed by strong housing activity, favorable commodity prices, and the benefits of government stimulus. In EAME, fundamentals remain positive. Stimulus actions continue and construction confidence improves. We expect the industry in Latin America to be supported by construction activity and the continued mining recovery. Turning to Resource Industries, elevated commodity prices and strong minor CapEx expectations support continued improvement in customer demand. The number of [markets with] (ph) parked trucks in the field remains low and utilization has been improving. We also remain optimistic in heavy construction and quarry and aggregates, where we continue to see improving demand. Finally, in Energy and Transportation, we expect demand to improve during the fourth quarter compared to last year. In Oil & Gas, we expect services growth, and a focus on sustainability to drive demand for new equipment in the form of repowers. We expect that to be balanced though by continued capital discipline by our oil and gas customers. Recip power generation is expected to remain strong with strength in data centers. Industrial is expected to see continued strength across all applications. A modest increase is anticipated in Transportation with improvement in rail, primarily in services and international locomotives. Now on slide 8. Sustainability remains an important element of our strategy for long-term profitable growth. Recently, we took 3 actions that advance our sustainability efforts. We named Julie Lagacy as our first Chief Sustainability and Strategy Officer. We committed to incorporate ESG performance into our 2022 incentive plan for executives, and we announced our plan to analyze the disclosure recommendations of the task force on climate-related financial disclosures, or TCFD, and to utilize the TCFD framework to enhance our sustainability reporting starting in 2023. This past May, we disclosed our sustainability goals for 2030. Caterpillar is committed to contributing to a reduced carbon future. We demonstrate this in many ways, including through our significant progress in reducing greenhouse gas emissions from our operations and our continued investments in new products, technologies, and services to help our customers achieve their climate related objectives as they build a better, more sustainable world. This quarter, our customers announced some exciting news in cooperation with Caterpillar. BHP and Caterpillar have agreed to test zero emissions battery-powered large mining trucks at BHP sites to reduce their operational greenhouse gas emissions. We also signed an agreement with Rio Tinto for the world's first fleet of 793 zero emissions autonomous haul trucks to support its mining operations in Western Australia. This agreement help support Rio Tinto's sustainability goals. This mine is also home to the world's first fully autonomous water truck, the CAT 789D. Enhancing grid stability is also critical for our customers. Our battery's energy storage and bi-directional power inverters are built to provide continuous, reliable electric power in oil and gas sites. They can also be leveraged at remote mining sites such as Barrick and Gold Corporation's Kibali gold mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo. Collaborating with our customer and our local dealer, Tractafric to battery energy storage capacity for the mine's microgrid saves Barrick an estimated 3 million liters of diesel fuel annually. We displayed the solution in our mine Expo exhibit in Las Vegas in September, and it's a great example of how our technologies apply across our segments to provide customers with full-site solutions. In summary, we continue to execute in your strategy for long-term profitable growth or investing in services and expanded offerings while driving operational excellence. We continue to remain focused on sustainability. We're developing products and services that facilitates fuel transition, increased operational efficiency, and reduce emissions to help our customers achieve their environmental in carbon reduction goals. We had a strong Third Quarter overall with volume growth in all 3 primary segments and sales gains in every region. Operating profit margin expanded due largely to the volume gains. While material costs and [Indiscernible], so as price realization with strong performance, year-to-date, we remain on track to meet our Investor Day targets for ME&T margins and free cash flow for the year. Now, let me turn the call over to Andrew.
Andrew Bonfield:
Thank you, Jim and good morning, everyone. I'll start on slide nine with MCU [Indiscernible] Caterpillar, third Quarter results, including the performance of each segment. Then I'll turn to the Balance Sheet and conclude with a few assumptions about the forth quarter and full year. As Jim noted, as sales and revenues for the quarter rose by 25% or tripling $5 billion to $12.4 billion. This was primarily due to higher volumes. Operating profit increased by 69% to $1.7 billion. Third quarter profit per share was $2.60 compared to $1.22 in the Third Quarter of 2020. Adjusted profit per share increased by 75% to $2.66 compared to $1.52 last year. Turning to Slide 10, Third Quarter sales and revenues grew by double-digit percentage points for the three primary segments. [Indiscernible] were the main growth [Indiscernible] with higher sales to users leading the way. In addition, dealer inventory provided a tailwind to come about $300 million this quarter versus the $600 million in decrease last year. Services, revenues, favorable price, and currency also contributed to the top-line gain. Looking at it sequentially, sales in the Third Quarter were around 4% lower than in the Second Quarter, which is in line with normal seasonality. Third Quarter sales and revenues increased in every region. In North America, our largest region, sales increased by 28% with strong growth in all three primary segments. In [Indiscernible] sales rose by 23% as infrastructure spending supported higher demand. Latin America sales grew by 72% from a low base. Asia Pacific sales increased by 8% with gains in Resource Industries and Energy and Transportation, more than offsetting lower revenues in construction industries. As Jim mentioned, China was a bright spot in the Third Quarter of 2020, so the decline in construction industry sales in China was in line with our expectations. As usual, we have separately reported quarterly sales to users. Globally sales to users increased by around 14% versus the year ago. As Jim previously commented, the 14% growth rate was below our expectations, primarily due to supply chain constraints. Sales to users and Construction Industries rose by 12% with double-digit growth in North America, EAME, and Latin America. Asia Pacific sales to users to convert 10% reflecting the expected moderation in China following the strong growth earlier this year. We still anticipate that the above [Indiscernible] Industry will be about flat for the full year when compared with the June last year's very strong performance. Sales to users rose by 33% in Resource Industries. Growth was consistent across the segment, as opposed mining as well as Heavy Construction from Korean aggregates, so strong gains. In Energy and Transportation sales to users increased by 8%, reflecting gains in industrial and oil and gas applications, partially offset by reductions in both power generation and transportation. Now, let's review the bottom line on Slide 11. Third Quarter operating profit increased by $679 million or 69%. The higher volume was the principal driver of the increase in operating profit for the quarter. Volume gains and favorable price realization were partly offset by higher SG MA, R&D, and manufacturing costs, which included both short-term in-center compensation expense, as well as higher material and freight costs. Year-over-year, the adjusted operating profit margin rose by 260 basis points to 13.7%. Versus the second quarter, the adjusted operating profit margin declined by about 40 basis points, which was slightly better than we had anticipated. The main reason was a strong new growth margin due to better price and slightly lower material costs than we had expected. Our global effective tax rates for the third quarter was 25%, versus the 26% we had assumed previously. Restructuring expenses of $35 million decreased by $77 million compared to last year. Adjusted profit per share of $2.66 was higher than we expected, reflecting the strong operation performance, as well as the lower-than-expected global tax rate and discrete tax benefits. These accounted for about $0.14 per share in aggregate for the quarter. We also saw some currency benefits from hedging in the quarter primarily related to the Euro. Moving to Slide 12. Let's take a look at the segment performance starting with Construction Industries. Sales increased by 30% in the third quarter to $5.3 billion, primarily driven by higher sales volume and favorable price realization. The improvement in volume was due to higher end-user demand and the impact of changes in dealer inventories. The increase in end-user demand was led by North America where nonresidential construction demand continued to improve, and we also saw continued strength in residential construction. Overall, dealers reduced their construction equipment inventories less than the Third Quarter of 2021, than they did in the Third Quarter of 2020. The segment's Third Quarter profit went up by 47% to $859 million. The increase came from higher sales volume and favorable price realization. This is partially offset by unfavorable manufacturing costs, which largely reflected higher freight and material costs. The segment's operating margin increased by 190 basis points versus last year to 16.3%. Turning to Slide 13, resource industry sales increased by 32% in the Third Quarter to $2.4 billion. The improvement was mostly due to higher end-user demand for equipment and aftermarket costs, both mining as well as Heavy Construction inquiry and aggregates. This is partially offset by changes in dealer inventories. Third Quarter profit for Resource Industries increased by 78% to $297 million. The increase was mainly due to higher sales volume and favorable price realization, partially offset by higher freight and material costs. The segment's operating margin at 12.3% increased by 310 basis points when compared to 2020. Now on Slide 14, Energy and Transportation sales increased by 22% to approximately $5.1 billion that included a 48% sales increase in Oil & Gas, which came off a low base and also introduced the addition of SPM Oil & Gas. Here we saw higher sales in both reciprocating engines and turbines. Power generation sales, declined slightly as turbines and related services were unfavorably impacted by the timing of customer projects. Industrial sales rose by 30%, with demand higher across all regions. Transportation rose by 12% over low base on higher [Indiscernible] services and marine sales. Profit for Energy and Transportation increased by 41% to $696 million. The improvement reflected higher sales volume that was partially offset by a couple of factors, unfavorable manufacturing costs, including freight material, the impact of short-term central compensation, and acquisition-related expenses primarily SPM Oil & Gas. Keep in mind that the Third Quarter of 2020, including an unfavorable impact from inventory write-downs and asset impairments. The segment's operating margin increased year-over-year by a 190 basis points to 13.7%. As we mentioned last quarter, we do expect to SPM Oil & Gas to modestly impact margins for Energy and Transportation this year as it will take some time for the synergies to be realized. We remain very pleased with how the integration's going and expect to see the full benefits of the transaction as we move forward. On Slide 15, financial products revenue increased by 5% to $762 million. Segment profit increased by 22% year-over-year to $173 million. A year-over-year profit increase was partly due to favorability in returned or repossessed equipment [Indiscernible] for used equipment remains very strong. We also benefited from a lower provision for credit losses along with the higher net yield on average earning assets due to a favorable change in weighted average interest rates. These benefits were partially offset by the impact of higher short-term incentive compensation expense. Our credit portfolio remains in good shape as customer health indicators are positive. Past dues continue to improve across all portfolios segments to 2.41%, that's down a 140 basis points year-over-year and down 17 basis points compared to the second quarter. This is below our 10-year average. New business volume also continued to improve. In fact, the third quarter of 2021 was the highest new business volume in the third quarter for 10 years. On Slide 16, any and free cash flow was $237 million in the quarter, slightly lower than we saw in the Third Quarter of last year. Higher profits were partially offset by $1 billion increase in Caterpillar inventory in the third quarter compared to the second quarter of 2021. The growth in Caterpillar inventory reflected an increase in production inventory due to shortages of certain components and higher end-user demand. The Company ended the quarter with $9.4 billion in enterprise cash. We continue to maintain a solid liquidity position as we prioritized a strong midday credit ratings. ME&T is generated free cash flow of $4.2 billion year-to-date. We said at our 2019 Investor Day that we intended to return substantially all of our ME&T free cash flow to shareholders over time using a combination of dividends and share repurchases. We've repurchased about $1.4 billion of our common shares this quarter, which brings the total to $1.6 billion year-to-date. We paid a dividend in the Third Quarter of $1.11 per share, or about $600 million in aggregate, reflecting the 8% increase we announced in June. Through the end of the Third Quarter, we've returned $3.4 billion to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases. Now on Slide 17, in light of the hardly [Indiscernible] environment for continued not providing guidance for our annual profit per share. To assist you with your modeling now, we'll continue to share some high-level assumptions for the upcoming quarter. We expect a stronger topline in the fourth quarter compared to the third, which would follow and normal seasonable pattern. As we said before, we do not expect a significant benefit from [Indiscernible] restocking in 2021. We expect our adjusted operating profit margin in the fourth quarter to generally follow the seasonable pattern of lower margins versus the third quarter. So currently, we see continued pressure from higher material and freight costs, which accelerated during the quarter and are likely to remain elevated in the fourth quarter. We anticipate this will be partly offset by price realization. We continue to expect price offset higher manufacturing costs for machines in 20 21, although further disruptions in the supply chain can make that more difficult. As we said previously, price realization will not offset manufacturing costs within Energy and Transportation. But as the Fourth Quarter is typically a stronger sales quarter in this segment, that will help this overhaul operating margin. As Jim (ph) mentioned, based on our results to-date, we continue to anticipate meeting our Investor Day target for adjusted operating profit margins in 2021. Despite the nearly 300 basis points of pressure from reinstating the short-term incentive compensation programs. We currently anticipate 2021 restructuring expense of $150 million to $200 million, compared with our previous estimate of $250 million. This compares to restructuring expenses of $354 million in 2020. We now expect the global effective tax rates VHP 25%, down from 26% earlier. We anticipate capital expenditures for the year of about $1 billion to $1.1 billion versus our previous estimate of $1 billion to $1.2 billion. We also continue to anticipate reaching our target for ME&T free cash flow in 2021. Turning to slide 18. In summary, demand remains strong and we performed well in the quarter that presented additional complexity due to the challenges within the supply chain. Our operating performance was strong with sales up 25% and adjusted profit per share up 75% versus the prior year. We remain on track to meet our Investor Day targets for adjusted operating margins and free cash flow to the year. With that, we'll now take your questions.
Operator:
As a reminder, management asks that we limit to 1 question per analyst. Your line will close once the question has been post. If clarification is desired, please rejoin the queue. And your first question comes from the line of Jamie Cook with Credit Suisse.
Jamie Cook:
Hi, good morning. And nice job on the quarter. I guess my first question, you mentioned your sales to users were below expectation because of supply chain, but we're still making our margin targets. So what's performing better than you would have expected? And on price costs, you're covering your price cost on machines in 2021, I'm just trying to think about the ability to continue to recover price or have priced higher than your costs in 2022 and begin to get price realization on E&T as well. Thanks.
Andrew Bonfield:
Within the quarter, as I mentioned that gross margin did come in slightly better than we expected. Price was strong and a little bit better than we expected. And some of the material cost increases which we are anticipating haven't run through, they came some quite late in the quarter. Obviously, that will impact Q4 a little bit more. And obviously we'll probably will see just -- as we talked about the fact that for the full year, we expect the machines price offset manufacturing cost increases. That's including short-term incentive compensation. We will expect to see a slight negative in Q4 as a result. Jim will -- with regard to future pricing, obviously, we continue to monitor the environment. We’ve taken appropriate price actions as we gone through the year. And we will be taking, obviously, looking at taking price actions as well within E&T and energy and transportation as well as part of those actions and those end markets all starting to recover as well. If you remember the beginning of year, we didn't take the price action as a result of the demand outlook within those applications.
Jim Umpleby:
Jamie, it's always a balance. We'll look at what's happening with our cost picture. Always have to be competitive as well. So again, we will balance all those inputs and make pricing decisions going forward in ways that we think makes sense.
Operator:
And your next question will come from the line of Ann Duignan with JPMorgan.
Ann Duignan:
Hi, good morning. I'd like to focus on Oil & Gas, please. You mentioned during the slide presentation that you saw an increase in services for both reciprocating engines and turbines. If you could separate both businesses and the fundamentals of both, when might you expect to see an increase in demand for products or reciprocating engines, whether they'd be well completion, equipment, and turbines, particularly for natural gas compression? So if you could address each one of those, I'd appreciate it.
Jim Umpleby:
In recip Oil & Gas we are starting, as you mentioned, services are strong. We are starting to see some new equipment activity that's mainly for repowers. Our customers are focused on their sustainability objectives and reducing their carbon footprints. And with given some of the new solutions we have, we are starting to see some new equipment activity again, mainly for repowers and recip. And for Solar, Solar tends to go into a downturn and they tend to into that downturn a bit later and then come out of it later just because of the lead times of both the projects our customers are constructing and also Solar's lead times. So as you mentioned, Solar services sales are strong and improved. And again, your equipment sales are really hanging in there. But we'll have to see how that plays out in the months ahead. But again, typically they go into a -- they go into a downturn a bit later on commodities, a bit later compared to the recip part of the business.
Operator:
Our next question will come from the line of Mig Dobre with Baird.
Mig Dobre:
Thank you, Good morning everyone. I want to ask a question -- good morning. I want to question surrounding your backlog, being if I look at your backlog here is the highest in about 10 years, dealer inventories on the other hand, seems to be close to 10-year lows. So that looks a little bit unusual, and I'm curious from your perspective, how much of this dynamic is owed to dealer is literally not being able to restock given the supply chain. Items that you talked about earlier and how that might change on a go-forward basis if things loosen up. And then also related to the backlog, since you do have as much as you do, how is the price cost dynamic in the backlog that you currently have? Should we expect more of a price cost headwinds early in the 22, as you're converting on this backlog or is this backlog properly priced at this point? Thank you.
Jim Umpleby:
All right. Well, in terms of dealer inventory, of course, dealers are independent businesses and make their own decisions about their inventory. But having said that, the dynamics here that I believe are impacting that dealer inventory are combination of strong customer demand, which we talked about in our previous comments. So that's positive. And then on the other side of it, as we mentioned, we are having some supply chain challenges as well, fully meeting all the demand that's out there. So it's a combination of those two factors, very strong demand and supply chain challenges. Again, those independent dealers make their own decisions, but those two factors do have an impact on that low dealer inventory. Now, I'm going to ask you to clarify the question that Andrew
Andrew Bonfield:
On the -- whether there is actually a price challenge within the backlog. Obviously, we do normally, it’s just normal practice where a customer has an order. Remember these are orders to the -- from the dealers, most of the time rather than from customers where there is an order from the customer to the dealer, then when we have certain lead times, that normally would go in, that is taking into account obviously, if customers are ordering before price increase, they will pay it based on the price of the day the order is made. But obviously, a lot of those orders you were talking about in backlog are dealer orders and therefore will be priced at the appropriate price level rather than when the customer [Indiscernible] orders. So the vast majority of the backlog will be properly priced.
Mig Dobre:
Great. Thank you.
Operator:
Our next question will come from the line of David Raso with Evercore ISI.
David Raso:
Following up on the backlog, I was curious, just given some of the long lead times we hear in the channel, what percent of this backlog do you expect to ship the next 12 months? We usually get that data point in the filings, but I'm just curious. Is there something about this backlog where it looks large, but it is expected to ship over a lot longer time than normal? Or is it that normal, 20% to 25% of the backlog is not expected to be shipped the next 12 months or said the other way, 75% to 80% of it is expected to be shipped in the next 12 months?
Andrew Bonfield:
David, I mean, obviously I don't actually have the Q in front of me and it is in our filing documents, and that will be available. We'll come back to you with the question - with the answer of what that will be in a little while. I mean, obviously, one of the challenges, as you know, always with backlog is where it is and what it is. So obviously, things like solar and rail are more direct businesses. And those all customer orders and some of those have pretty much long lead times anyway as part of that process. But we'll come back to you on the part of your question relating to the percentage that's not due to be shifted in the next 12 months.
Jim Umpleby:
And how that backlog plays out going forward will depend obviously on both, if customer demand remains strong and supply chain challenges remain, then that'll have an impact on the backlog. So we’ll have to see how it all plays out.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question is going to come from the line of Matt Elkott with Cowen and Company.
Matt Elkott:
Good morning. Thank you for taking my question. On the mining side with an up-cycle looming and the majors confidence increasing, do you think the equipment replacement cycle will finally kick in, that's been expected for several years now?
Jim Umpleby:
You know what, we've been talking about in our last earnings calls, is a gradual improvement in mining. The fundamentals of their commodity prices are generally supportive of reinvestment. Our mining customers are disappointing capital discipline as we've talked about before. But having said that, we do see mining continue to gradually improve. And one thing to keep in mind is if in fact a customer decides to keep a truck running longer than they normally would, that's not a bad thing for us either because we have the opportunity to re-power and have services and parts, and that's good as well. So again, you know what, what we've been talking about is a steady, gradual increase in mining activity, and that continues to play itself out. So it's again, turning out as much as we had expected.
Andrew Bonfield:
And sorry, I was just going out to find out the answer to David's question, so it will be -- it's about less than 20% that is not expect to be fulfilled in the next 12 months.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question will come from the line of Rob Wertheimer with Melius Research.
Rob Wertheimer:
Hi. Good morning, everybody and thank you.
Jim Umpleby:
Hi, Rob.
Rob Wertheimer:
My question is also on mining. There's been a lot of turmoil around China Construction lately. Actually your dealer sales didn't seem to be too bad there given some of the peers. Are you hearing any concern or any reevaluation from mining customers as you looked at the potential for harder landing in China real estate, or is that really not on the board? Everything else seems pretty constructive, I guess.
Jim Umpleby:
Certainly my continued conversations with mining CEO's, I believe they see the environment is positive. Commodity prices, the energy transition I believe represents just an excellent opportunity for both mining customer and for Caterpillar. Thinking about all the minerals [Indiscernible] mind for EVs and everything else that has to happen. We believe that's quite positive. So again, it is playing out much as we had anticipated in terms of a gradual increase in mining. And we -- based on everything we see today, we believe that will continue. So no. The answer to your question is no, we haven't heard a lot of concerns about a downturn there.
Operator:
Our next question will come from the line of Courtney Yakavonis with Morgan Stanley.
Courtney Yakavonis:
Hi, good morning, guys. If you could just comment, you had mentioned that sales would have been higher if we didn't have some of these supply chain issues. If you can quantify that at all and also just which segments do you feel like are most impacted by that, and is it entirely reflected in dealer inventory. And then just on the guidance, when we think about typical seasonality for the fourth quarter, if you can just disaggregate the different divisions. Is there any nuance there or should we be thinking about all of those segments performing in line with seasonality?
Jim Umpleby:
So it's very difficult to quantify and we're not going to try to give you a number today. There's a lot of moving pieces here. You stop and think about dealer inventory changes. And again -- so we're not going to try to quantify it. Clearly, it would've been higher. If you look at our -- the Caterpillar inventory that gives you some indication of, again, the fact that we are having some challenges. But we're not going to quantify that number. We mentioned earlier that our sales to users came in lower than we anticipated due to supply chain challenges. But again, very, very difficult to quantify. And in terms of seasonality, at this point we expect things to play out as they normally do. I can't think of an example. I'll let Andrew to chime in here if [Indiscernible] something is going to be unusual.
Andrew Bonfield:
I mean, the only part of the world that's really on usual loan is around China, because if you remember, China. Last year, was very strong in the second half of the year, which is unusual. As a result of COVID and we expect overall this year trying to sales to be, as you said, about flattish. And so the [Indiscernible] above excavator market. So effectively China will be weaker in the Second Half. That is the only one which will be normal. The other business segments are very much more in line with normal seasonal patterns.
Jim Umpleby:
And just to clarify there, China will be probably typical this year. Slower second half and the first half, but it was unusual last year, which will create some challenging comps, so last year, again, very unusual, and at the second half was stronger than the first two, as Andrew mentioned, due to COVID.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Ross Gilardi with Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
Ross Gilardi:
Yes. Thanks. Good morning, guys.
Jim Umpleby:
Morning, Ross.
Andrew Bonfield:
Morning, Ross.
Ross Gilardi:
Jim, maybe this one's for you. Just an E and P question. I mean, Your Girardi big oil and gas customers, I imagine are seeing a real surge and free cash flow just given where oil and natural gas prices have gone, what are the conversations like with some of your bigger customers? Do they seem to be looking at a lot of new project activity, particularly around pipelines, are they accelerating refurbishments? Are they still very tenanted around new investment like what you've seen from your mining customers first for some time right now?
Jim Umpleby:
Well, thanks for the question. Certainly, we do expect our oil and gas customers to continue to display capital discipline. Having said that, as I mentioned earlier, we are seeing increases in services for both 3 ship on the Solar and we are seeing increase in new equipment activity and some of it -- well a lot of it is around customers being focused on reducing their carbon footprint. And we have a lot of new solutions to help them do that. Whether it's dynamic Gas blending where they can substitute 80-85% diesel fuel and natural gas and a number of other solutions we had as well, which can help them reduce their carbon footprint. so we're seen that happening, but again, I mentioned earlier the Solar tends to go into the trough a bit sooner than other companies and come out of it a bit later. But their services are strong as well. We're seeing pickup in international activity for Solar. That has picked up -- quotation activity has certainly picked up over the so, last few months.
Ross Gilardi:
Thank you.
Operator:
Our next question is going to come from the line of Nicole DeBlase with Deutsche Bank?
Nicole DeBlase:
Yes. Thanks. Good morning, guys.
Jim Umpleby:
Good morning, Nicole.
Nicole DeBlase:
I just want to dig into what you're seeing from a supply chain perspective a bit more. What I'm looking for is, are there any signs that maybe we are seeing a stabilization at the higher end of the impact? Is this possibly the worst of the impact? And kind of similar around margins, when you think about the impacts you faced it from higher labor, freight material costs, do you think that this is as bad as it gets?
Jim Umpleby:
Supply chain, it's a very -- obviously, a difficult question to answer. We're seeing a situation where, let's say that there's a shortage in one component. And we're very focused on that, that will ease. And then, another component will create a problem and then, it goes back and forth. A number of our suppliers are dealing with a whole variety of issues, so more suppliers are having labor issues or their suppliers are having labor issues, so it's very difficult to make a prediction as to where we are with this issue. Again, it depends upon the component. It depends upon the region of the world. So again, I'm not going to try to call this to say it's going to get better from here, it's going to get worse from here. It's a very fluid, dynamic situation. But we're dealing with it. Again, I'm very proud of the team that we were able to post a 25% increase in sales quarter-to-quarter. Given those challenges, as I mentioned earlier, we are taking appropriate price action in response to the cost pressures and we had solid price realization in the quarter. So again, very difficult to judge exactly what's going to happen moving forward. But I do feel confident in our ability to manage the situation. Again, as we did in the third quarter; balancing price with cost, balancing, taking care of our customers. Again, it's challenging, but we intend to work our way through, and again, when [Indiscernible] keep in mind is of course the demand, the good news is that what's driving a lot of this is customer demand is so strong. That's the great news, we have strong customer demand in what we're talking about here with the supply chain challenges is that challenging fully meeting that strong customer demand. And of course that's very important. So something to keep in mind.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question will come from the line of Chad Dillard with Bernstein.
Chad Dillard:
Good morning, everyone.
Jim Umpleby:
Good Morning, Chad.
Chad Dillard:
Given the supply chain charges and you can't manufacture everything that you'd like. Can you talk about how you're prioritizing manufacturing? Are you putting the larger, higher SEC ahead of the others? All else equal. And how has that approach changed as we've gone through the year?
Jim Umpleby:
Absolutely, we certainly do try to make conscious decisions. We try to take care of our long-term customers, but we do also look at [Indiscernible] our production, where it makes sense so that is something that we keep in mind.
Andrew Bonfield:
Also, one terms as remember, is not all machines are made with common components. So one of the problems often is, one component to be impacting production in one area today and it could be something different tomorrow. So that game, as Jim said, complexity also is attractive.
Jim Umpleby:
And we may keep in mind as well is if we don't have new equipment our dealers have the opportunity to rent equipment [Indiscernible] to sell used equipment as well. As we have a lot of options to bring in the marketplace to serve our customers. Oftentimes, our customer -- and it depends on the customer, depends on the product, but many customers are in fact willing to wait even though things are taking a bit longer. many customers are willing to wait for that equipment. So that's something to keep in mind as well. You got a lot of very loyal customers.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question will come from the line of Adam Uhlman with Melius Research.
Adam Uhlman:
Hey, guys. Good morning.
Jim Umpleby:
Good morning, Uhlman.
Adam Uhlman:
I was wondering if you could share what's your service revenue growth has been so far this year. And if not, maybe if you can just share some perspective about if you're running above plan or below your plan for that line of business, because I assume that you'd be shipping and running at above plan given the demand environment, but you also have some pretty lofty service revenue growth goals for the next several years. So maybe you could update us on where you stand with that initiative and some of the key drivers that you're working there.
Andrew Bonfield:
We will share with you our services revenue for the year in January as we said, we would. Services has been a bright spot this year. Certainly services are higher this year than last, but we're not going to quantify it at this point, but again, it is a bright spot for us.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question will come from the line of Larry De Maria with William Blair.
Larry De Maria:
Alright, thanks. Good morning, everybody.
Andrew Bonfield:
Good morning Larry.
Larry De Maria:
You noticed some environmental wins, obviously earlier in the quality prepared remarks. Just curious, I think it's structurally different margin and or aftermarket profiles, and is there a risk that customers wait on equipment upgrades to see how this market develops or do you think customers will just order this as they want to layered in.
Jim Umpleby:
Customers have to, first and foremost, have to keep their equipment operating, right? So there's a certain amount of flexibility there, but only so much more they have to again, make those decisions to keep equipment operating. So. they -- we serve as a variety of different industries. So mining is different than construction. But again, we don't see things creating -- we don't see a problem there. They're generally customers have to make decisions to keep equipment operating so they'll either, put in the service work or in fact of buying new equipment wanted together. And if they can't get the new equipment, as long as they can, and then potentially do a rebuild. So again, services are strong for the year.
Andrew Bonfield:
Yeah. And as we are talking about different margin and off-the-market profiles. Obviously, at this stage, a lot of these all very early stage products that we're developing with them. And you will [Indiscernible] in a situation where we all actually [Indiscernible] what pricing will be so that will be part of the equation as we go through the next period of time.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question will come from the line of Steven Fisher with UBS.
Steven Fisher:
Great, thanks. Good morning. There's been a number of questions on the Oil & Gas piece, but I had a bigger picture question about E&T overall and the potential to get back to the 2019 peak levels. really wondering how you're thinking about that potential and what strategy and visibility you might have to get back there over the next, say, 2-3 years. If that's what you're thinking and maybe it's the carbon point [Indiscernible] a bigger factor of the other parts of the business beyond Oil & Gas that can step up. Is this a business that can really get back to that 2019 peak level overall.
Jim Umpleby:
[Indiscernible] over it really doing is looking at each element of the Energy and Transportation business and focus on profitably growing it. I mean, if you stop and think about our rail business, it is particularly for a U.S. freight locomotives it is at a very, very, very low period. A slight bit of improvement there and services. But again, I -- that only has one way to go. If you look at look at how low that businesses Oil & Gas, of course, had been depressed for the reasons that you are all aware of. As I mentioned, we're seeing increase in services, seen an increase in new equipment. And the recent end helping our customers meet some of their sustainability goals with repowers, Power generation business, that remains strong in terms of data centers. We just happen to just think about why the way the world continues to change. I suspect that there will be lots of opportunities for data centers moving forward. On the industrial business. We're seeing an increase there across all applications. And generally that industrial business does well in periods of global economic expansion. So that's positive also. So again, I mean it's the Energy and Transportation businesses is a diverse group of products that serves a diverse group of industries. But certainly am bullish about our long-term prospects. They're both from the market size and our ability to be competitive to serve that market.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question will come from the line of Tim Thein with Citigroup.
Tim Thein:
Thank you. Good morning. Maybe just to drill down a bit further on the pricing discussion we've had this with respect to CI. s Nearly 5.5% price realization in the quarter. As we think about that, maybe in the near-term, My understanding is there was an additional price actions taken, at least in North America here and open the last month or so. But obviously just given these long lead times that will take some time to come into effect. So how should we think about just maybe the near-term path of pricing again, in your largest segment, not just in the Fourth Quarter, but how that ready dovetails into next year as start to ship some of these orders. Thank you.
Jim Umpleby:
again, back to the point I was making obviously, earlier, where we do obviously put price increases through if a customer orders ahead of that price increase they get the old products, that'll be price per [Indiscernible]. Obviously, they are some products which are longer return. But the vast majority of the backlog will flow through at the current list price. Also, there will -- there's a lag, but it's a huge lag, that will come through. With regards to pricing as we move into 2022, I think
Andrew Bonfield:
we've indicated what we expect for the rest of the year. Obviously, we're in the middle of our planning process that you should expect that we will continue to take the appropriate actions, both from a cost perspective to try and reduce costs where possible. And some of those costs headwinds. And also from a pricing perspective, to make sure at the same time that we price competitively to make sure we continue to grow the business and meet customer demand. It's a balancing act but that will be something we will continue to work on. As you say, as we go through 2022.
Jim Umpleby:
And it's complicated, you start to think about there is the list price and then there's certain support that we provide our dealers in terms of variance to help them capture strategic deals. There's a lot that goes into this, so it's very difficult to put into costs’ a spreadsheet, but again, our intent here is to continue to monitor the cost situation and to take appropriate price action in response to that cost environment, and so far so good.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Joel Tiss with BMO.
Joel Tiss:
Hey, guys. How is it going?
Jim Umpleby:
Hey, Joel. Good morning.
Joel Tiss:
Morning. I just wanted to have a little bit of a clarification from Mig 's question earlier about dealer inventories. Can you give us a little bit of sense of all the technology you are putting into your products and all that. If the dealer inventories are going to go back to historic levels, or you think the new go-forward levels might be whatever half of where we were before? And then my real question is, if you can give us a little insight on why prices seem to be lagging a little bit in Resource Industries. Is that just the nature of the contracts or anything else? Thank you.
Jim Umpleby:
Yes. So in terms of dealer inventory, it does remain near the low end of the range. And as I mentioned earlier, it's a combination of two things impacting that. One is strong customer demand in the supply chain challenges that we've talked about. Very difficult. Again, dealers are independent businesses to make a prediction as to how that will play out. But I will tell you it is at the low end of the normal range. Certainly, with our new processes, we're trying to be -- maybe an improved process to try to match our production with end-user demand. Having said that, again, inventory is at the low end of the range. In terms of --
Andrew Bonfield:
In terms Resource Industries, a couple of factors there. One, if you remember the beginning of the we did have a couple of deals which would negative price in Q1 which impacted and then actually what's also happening is a lot of services also into Australia, we reduced prices because of the change in price between the Aussie dollar and the dollar and that came through a little bit in this quarter. We should expect to see price become more favorable as we moved through the remainder of the year.
Jennifer Driscoll:
We'll take our last question, please.
Operator:
Okay. Our last question will come from the line of Jerry Revich with Goldman Sachs.
Jerry Revich:
Yes, hi. Good morning, everyone.
Andrew Bonfield:
Hey, Jerry.
Jerry Revich:
A really strong zero admissions product pipeline that you folks have across the businesses. I'm wondering if you can talk about the R&D required to support that investment over the next couple of years. Can you do it within the level of R&D to sales that you folks have had over the past couple of years or is there a need to be a step-up and can you tie into that? Is there have been a part of the equation here to accelerate the development path? Is that going to be a use of capital as you folks see it?
Jim Umpleby:
I think you are right. On the question is certainly we're very willing enable to invest R&D to help meet the sustainability goals, both for us and our customers that we've talked about. We knew, answer to this question is we intend to invest the R and D when we need to invest, but we also intend to meet our Investor Day targets for operating margins and free cash flow, so that's really the way we look at it, and as we develop those products, as always, it will be a combination of things. If it makes sense for us to have an acquisition that helps us there, we can do that. I believe that the vast majority of it will come from our own R&D in investing in the products. But you know, we have made a few acquisitions here over the last, over the last couple of years, small acquisitions that have helped us from a technology perspective. And we're continually on the hunt for other potential acquisition opportunities that can help us in our journey. But I suspect the vast majority of it will come to organic investment in our products.
Operator:
Thanks everyone for your questions and now I would like to turn it back to Jim for his closing remarks.
Jim Umpleby:
Well, thanks, everyone for your time this morning and for your questions. Again [Indiscernible] Just quite a few takeaways. We're continuing to execute our strategy for long-term profitable growth through services, expanded offerings, and operational excellence. We had a solid quarter increased sales and revenues in all segments and all regions. And we improved our operating profit margins. We do as we mentioned, we remain optimistic about demand and our team continues to work closely with suppliers to mitigate the supply chain challenges that are having an impact on production. We're working hard with our customers to support them as they build a better, more sustainable world. We've announced some key actions on our sustainability journey. And as we've mentioned a few times here this morning, we remain on track to meet our Investor Day targets for margins in free cash flow. Thanks again for joining us.
Jennifer Driscoll:
Thank you, Jim, and thanks, Andrew, and everyone who joined our call today. A replay of our call will be available online later this morning. We'll also post a transcript on our Investor Relations website as soon as it's available. In addition, you'll find a Third Quarter results video with our CFO and an SEC filing with our sales to users data, click on investors.caterpillar.com and then click on financials to view these materials. If you have any questions, please reach out to Rob or me. You can reach Rob at RENGEL _ Rob @cat.com and I'm at Driscoll _ Jennifer @cat.com. The Investor Relations general phone number is 309-675-45-49. We hope you enjoy the rest of your day, and let's turn back to Holly to conclude our call.
Operator:
And with that, we will conclude today's conference call. Thank you for participating in the Caterpillar Earnings Conference Call. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Welcome to the Second Quarter 2021, Caterpillar Earnings Conference Call. Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Jennifer Driscoll. Thank you. Please go ahead.
Jennifer Driscoll:
Thank you, Whitney. Good morning, everyone. Welcome to Caterpillar 's Second Quarter 2021 Earnings Call. With me here today are Jim Umpleby, Chairman of the Board and CEO, Andrew Bonfield, Chief Financial Officer. Kyle Epley, Vice President of Global Finance Services Division, and Rod Rengle, Senior IR Manager. During our call this morning, we'll be discussing the earnings news release we issued earlier today. You may find our slides, and the news release, and the video recap at investors.caterpillar.com Simply click on Events and Presentations. Moving to Slide 2. The forward-looking statements we make today are subject to risks and uncertainties. We'll also make assumptions that could cause our actual results to be different than the information we're sharing with you on this call. Please refer to the recent SEC filings and the forward-looking statements reminder in the news release for details on factors that individually or in aggregate could cause our actual results to vary materially from our forecast. Caterpillar has copyrighted this call, and we prohibit use of any portion of it without our prior written approval. Today, we reported profit per share of $2.56 for the second quarter of '21, compared to $0.84, sorry, not $84, of profit per share in the second quarter of 2020. We're showing adjusted profit per share in addition to our U.S. GAAP results. Our adjusted profit per share was $2.60 for the second quarter, compared with second quarter 2020 adjusted profit per share of $1.27. Adjusted profit per share for both quarters excluded restructuring costs. The second quarter of 2020 also excluded a remeasurement loss of $0.19 per share, resulting from the settlement of pension obligation. We provide a non-GAAP reconciliation in the appendix to this morning's news release. You also can find information on dealer inventory and backlog in our slides. Now, let's flip to Slide 3 as we turn the call over to our Chairman and CEO, Jim Umpleby.
Jim Umpleby:
Thanks, Jennifer. Good morning, everyone. As we close out the first half of 2021, I'd like to thank our global team for their strong performance in a challenging, dynamic environment. We continue to execute our strategy for profitable growth, and remain focused on the safety of our employees. We're encouraged by higher end - user demand in the majority of our end markets. Before turning over the call to Andrew for a detailed review of our results, I'll briefly cover three topics this morning. I'll share my perspectives on Caterpillar 's second quarter results. I'll then review our end markets before discussing the sustainability report, including our new climate and energy statement that we published during the second quarter. On Slide 4, we're pleased with the strong sales and profit performance during the second quarter. Sales and revenues increased 29%, primarily due to higher sales volume. The 2 main drivers of our topline were strong end-user demand and the impact of changes in dealer inventory. Compared to the second quarter of last year, sales to users rose roughly 15%, and changes in dealer inventories provided about a $1 billion tailwind. During our first quarter call, we mentioned that growth in sales to users would be significantly higher than the 8% we saw in the first quarter. Sales to users rose about 15%, versus the second quarter of last year, and trended better for the fourth consecutive quarter. We had gains in all 3 of our primary segments. Machines rose 20% with similar increases in both construction industries and resource industries, with improvement in all regions. Demand from residential construction remained strong, and demand related to non-residential improved. Mining was also up. Quotation activity for miners remains strong, and we've seen a significant improvement in orders through the first 2 quarters. We were also pleased that Heavy Construction and Quarry and Aggregates strengthened, as did several end markets within Energy and Transportation. Energy and Transportation sales to users turned positive, rising 1%. Keep in mind that the slowdown in end-user demand in 2020 affected the Energy and Transportation later than the other segments, as some of the applications are impacted by timing of large products. From a geographic perspective, we had strength in sales across all regions. North America was quite strong, as expected. The EMEA and Latin America also showed double-digit sales growth. Asia Pacific saw good growth in most areas outside of China. China declined modestly in the quarter after rebounding strongly beginning in the second quarter of 2020, leading to a tougher comparison. We also had modest benefits to sales this quarter from currency and price. As we noted in our first quarter call, second quarter 2020 saw a decline in dealer inventory of $1.4 billion, but we did not expect a significant change during 2021. Dealer inventory declined $400 million during the second quarter. Similar to the first quarter of this year, dealer inventory remains near the low end of the normal range. I'll now provide an update on Caterpillar supply chain. In spite of the unprecedented challenges impacting the industrial sector, I'm proud of the work by our team to minimize disruptions, which were relatively modest during the second quarter. For the majority of our products, availability remains within our normal ranges. We mentioned on the last earnings call that the supply chain situation, including transportation, was challenging, and that our team was preparing contingency plans such as alternative assembly processes at our facilities. During the quarter, our team implemented some of those plans, and continue to work closely with our suppliers to mitigate supply chain impacts on production. We still anticipate that supply chain challenges will remain throughout the year, and our role is to minimize the impact on our ability to meet improving customer demand. In addition, as we mentioned during our last earnings call, we do not expect a significant benefit from dealer restocking during 2021. Operating profit in the second quarter increased 128% to $1.8 billion. Volume growth, price realization, and strong results from financial products drove the improvement. We did have some favorable price flow through this quarter, mostly in construction industries. We also saw higher short-term incentive compensation expense in some higher material costs, including steel and other commodities, as expected. Andrew will discuss margins in more detail. The adjusted operating profit margin improved to 14.1% versus 9.3% in the second quarter of 2020, as we expected. Operating margins increased in both Construction Industries and Resource Industries, despite headwinds from short-term incentive compensation and supply chain challenges. Profit per share was $2.56 versus $0.84 in the second quarter of 2020. Adjusted profit per share was $2.60 versus $1.27 in the second quarter of 2020. Moving to Slide five. Free cash flow for machinery, energy, and transportation, was another highlight of the quarter. We generated $1.7 billion of ME&T free cash flow with higher profit, partly offset by an increase in Caterpillar Inventory. We resumed share repurchases in the second quarter. We also announced we're increasing our quarterly dividend by 8% to $1.11 per share. We paid a higher dividend annually for 27 consecutive years. We returned about $800 million to shareholders in the second quarter via the dividend and share repurchases. We expect to repurchase sufficient shares between now and the end of the year to, at least, offset absolute dilution from shares issued this year. In light of the highly fluid environment, we will continue our practice of not providing profit per share guidance. However, we will share some high-level assumptions for the upcoming quarter and the full year. For 2021, as we said on the last earnings call, we expect to achieve the targets for adjusted operating profit margin that we set out at our 2019 Investor Day of 300 basis points to 600 basis points of improvement versus our performance during the 2010 to 2016 period at similar sales -- similar levels of sales and revenues. We also expect to achieve the free cash flow targets we set for ME&T at Investor Day of an incremental $1 billion to $2 billion at all points in the cycle. Andrew will elaborate with a few of our assumptions for the upcoming quarter in a few moments. Please turn to Slide 6, and I'll walk through our expectations by end market. Overall, we're becoming more optimistic about our end markets since our last earnings call. We're pleased that many end markets continue to improve and demand continues to strengthen. Global demand is strong and the outlook is positive. In construction industries for example, we're optimistic about the industry as we expect end-market demand to show continued positive growth. Residential and non-residential construction demand is expected to remain strong, led by North America. In China, we expect the industry for excavators above 10 tons to be about flat in 2021 compared to a very strong 2020. Please keep in mind that demand was very strong in this market during the first quarter. Our newly introduced GX models continue to perform well and we're still receiving positive customer feedback. In the balance of Asia-Pacific, we believe stronger-than-expected commodity prices, housing strength, and government infrastructure expenditures will support continued sales growth. In the EAME, we see end-market demand regaining momentum on strong construction activity, higher commodity prices, and improved confidence. Latin America should also show continued strengthening due to increased construction activity. Switching to resource industries. In mining, we continue to expect improvement in minor Capex, as commodity prices remain supportive of growth. Parked large mining trucks decreased in the quarter and remain ed at relatively low levels in all regions as utilization increases. Customer interest in Caterpillar's autonomous mining solution remains high, and customers now autonomously operate or deploying CAT machines on 18 sites around the world. While our mining customers continue to display capital discipline, we expect mining to continue to improve over the long-term as the energy transition drives higher demand for commodities. In Heavy Construction and Quarry and Aggregates, we've seen improvement in the second quarter, particularly in North America and the EAME. We expect continued strengthening in this part of the portfolio. Finally, in Energy and Transportation, we expect oil and gas to continue to strengthen gradually. We expect customers to continue to demonstrate capital discipline when pockets of excess capacity remained. In Power Generation, strength in data center should continue. Industrial demand is expected to improve along with the global economic recovery. Transportation should see strength in rail services and growth in international deliveries for locomotives, and marine demand is projected to grow modestly while remaining at low levels. Now on slide 7. Since our last -- since our last quarterly earnings call, we published our 2020 Sustainability Report to establish and report progress against our environmental, social, and governance goals. We also released a new climate and energy statement. Caterpillar shares the concerns of governments and the public about the risks of climate change, and supports global efforts to mitigate its impact. We are committed to contributing to a reduced carbon future. This commitment is reflected in our sustainability vision to improve the quality of the environment and our communities. Some of the way we do these are by further reducing greenhouse gas emissions from our operations and helping customers meet their climate-related objectives by investing in innovative new products, technologies, and services. Our 2020 sustainability report highlights 7 new environmental, social, and governance goals we've set to achieve by 2030. These goals, which address issues most relevant to our customers and other stakeholders, are focused on the climate and environment, in addition to safety. One of these goals is to ensure that 100% of Caterpillar's new products through 2030 will be more sustainable than the previous generation. It's an inspiring time to be a Caterpillar employee. I'm pleased with all the good work already underway across the Company. We're developing products and services that facilitate fuel transition, increased operational efficiency, and reduced emissions to help communities thrive, and to help our customers achieve their environmental goals. By establishing and reporting progress on our ESG targets, we provide transparency about our progress and innovation. In order to further increase transparency, we will strive to provide an update, or example, during our earnings calls. This quarter, I'll close with an example. Recently, Nouveau Monde Graphite, or NMG, announced the collaboration with us to fully power their Matawinie graphite mine with the zero-emissions machines by 2028. Caterpillar will be the exclusive equipment, technology, and service provider for NMG. We'll be developing, testing and producing CAT zero-emission machines for the project in Saint-Michel-des-Saints in Quebec, Canada. In conclusion, we continue to execute our strategy for long-term profitable growth, by investing in services, expanding our offerings, and improving operational excellence. It was a strong quarter from a financial and operational perspective, and a good first half. Looking forward, we're optimistic about our ability to mitigate supply chain challenges and are encouraged by customer demand that's strengthening and is broad-based across all regions. Now, I will turn the call over to Andrew.
Andrew Bonfield:
Thank you, Jim. And good morning, everyone. I'll start by walking you through second quarter results, including some color on the segment performance. Then I'll turn to the balance sheets, and afterwards to the third quarter. Beginning on Slide 8, as Jim noted, sales for the second quarter increased by 29% to $12.9 billion due to higher volumes. Operating profit of $1.8 billion increased by 128%, reflecting margin expansion primarily due to higher volumes. Second quarter profit per share was $2.56 compared with $0.84 in 2020. Adjusted profit per share more than doubled to $2.60 compared with $1.27 last year. I'll start with the top-line in Slide 9 where we continue to see strong volume gains. Sales and revenue growth was in the double-digits percent for all three of our primary segments, and on a consolidated basis for every region. Growth in North America, our largest region, is up 30%, reflecting strong results in construction industries and resource industries. Growth in the EAME was also robust, up 33%. Latin America rose by 67%, albeit of its low base. And Asia Pacific sales grew by 12%. Overall sales to users increased by 15%. The acceleration from the 8% [Indiscernible] quote in the first quarter was in line with our expectations. It was significantly higher percentage as we discussed last quarter. Sales to users in Construction Industries rose by 20%, led by North America. Residential construction continues to be strong in North America and the EAME. Non-residential construction in North America is recovering well as well. Latin America showed very good growth in sales to users of a low base. Asia-Pacific was lower due to a modest decline in China. As Jim mentioned, the Chinese market started to recover earlier in 2020 than other countries, leading to a tougher comparative. Overall, we still expect China have another strong year with the industry in the above 10 ton excavator market about flat. retaining last year's large gain. Sales to users and resource industries increased by 21% reflecting growth from Heavy Construction and Quarry and Aggregates. Demand for equipment and mining also improved this quarter. And as Jim mentioned, we remain encouraged about the upside potential in mining. In Energy and Transportation, sales to users rose by 1% in positive territory, despite the fact that E&T sales to users were impacted to a lesser extent than other segments in the second quarter of last year due to the timing of large deals. Now, turning to Slide 10. Operating profit increased to $1.8 billion. The 128% improvement reflected high volume in our 3 primary segments, favorable price, and higher profits from financial products. That was partly offset by the impact of restoring short-term incentive compensation. The assumption for short-term incentive compensation in the quarter was also raised by about $100 million compared to the first quarter to reflect our strengthening results. We now expect our full-year charge to be about $1.5 billion. This quarter, we had $25 million in restructuring expense, over $100 million lower than a year ago. We now expect around $250 million in restructuring expenses this year. We also had a full quarter impact of SPM Oil & Gas, including some M&A-related costs which I'll cover in a bit more detail when we discuss Energy and Transportation. The adjusted operating profit margin rose 480 basis points to 14.1%. As we expected, research and development, and selling, general and administrative expenses rose. These increases reflected not only the impact of incentive compensation, but also investments in key priorities, such as growing services and investing in product development to help our customers achieve their common objectives. As we explained in April, we did expect a sequential decline in margins versus the first quarter. Margins were broadly in line with our expectations. As we said, price realization turned positive in the quarter while material and freight costs were a negative. We did see a lower margin reduction than expected from absorption as production rates remain strong. However, the increase in short-term incentive compensation more than offset that. The global tax rate remains about 26%. adjusted profit per share of $2.60 excludes $0.04 of restructuring expense versus $0.24 of restructuring expense, as well as $0.19 for the settlement of pension obligations that occurred in second quarter of last year. Moving to Slide 11, let's take a look at segment performance, starting with Construction Industry. Sales increased by 40% to $5.7 billion, primarily driven by higher sales volume and favorable price realization. The improvement in volume was due to high er end-user demand, and the impact from changes in dealer inventories. As I mentioned earlier, the increase in end-user demand was led by North America, where residential construction remained strong and non-residential construction strengthened. Overall, dealers reduced their construction equipment inventories less in the second quarter of 2021 than in the second quarter of 2020. The segment's second quarter profit increased by 98% to $1 billion. The near doubling came from higher sales volume and favorable price realization, including geographic mix. Cost absorption and efficiencies were positive in the quarter. That was partly offset by 2 items. The impacts of short-term incentive compensation, and we started to see the impacts of unfavorable material costs although this was modest in the quarter. The segment operating margin increased by 530 basis points to 18.1% Turning to Slide 12, Resource Industries sales increased by 41% in the second quarter to $2.6 billion. The increase was mostly due to higher end-user demand for equipment and aftermarket parts, and changes in dealer inventories. As we expected, Heavy Construction and Quarry and Aggregates began to improve, and we expect continued improvement from here. End-user demand in mining also continued to improve. Sales were up in all regions. Second-quarter profit for Resource Industries more than doubled, increasing by 138%, to $361 million. The increase was mainly due to higher sales volume, partially offset by the impact of our short-term incentive compensation expense. Price was slightly negative, mostly due to changes in prices for Australian dollar denominated off-the-market parts. These were reduced to reflect currency movements versus the U.S. dollar. The operating margin increased by 570 basis points to 14%. Now on Slide 13. Energy and Transportation sales increased by 20% from $5 billion. That included an 11% sales increase in oil and gas, largely due to higher sales of reciprocating engine off-the-market parts, driven in part by the addition of SPM Oil & Gas. Power Generation sales improved by 18%, reflecting increased sales for large reciprocating engine applications, primarily for data centers. Industrial sales increased by 33% with demand across all regions. Transportation rose by 10% on higher rail services and marine sales. Profit for E&T increased by 17% to $731 million. The improvement due to the higher sales volume, that was partially offset by a couple of factors, including the impact of short-term incentive compensation and acquisition-related expenses, primarily SPM Oil & Gas. Higher freight costs were offset by manufacturing efficiency. The segment's operating margin to come by 30 basis points to 14.7%. With regards to SPM Oil & Gas, we do expect this to be a modest drag on margins P&P for the remainder of the year. This was the first full quarter since the acquisition, and it will take some time for the synergies to be realized. We're very pleased with the acquisition, and expect to see the full benefits of the acquisition as we move forward. On Slide 14, Financial Products revenue increased by 1% to $774 million, as the portfolio remained relatively constant. Segment profit remains strong, increasing by 64% year-over-year to $243 million, which was about flat compared to the first quarter of 2021. The year-over-year profit increase was due to a lower provision for credit losses at CAT Financial compared to the year-ago quarter, which reflected the absence of forecasted COVID-19 related impact. In addition, we had a higher net yields and average earning assets due to a favorable change in weighted average interest rate. And a favorable impact from return to repossessed equipment, benefiting from higher demand for used equipment. Our credit portfolio remains in good shape as indicators of customer health hold positive. Past dues continued to improve to 2.58% 8% down a 116 basis points year-on-year and down 32 basis points compared to the first quarter. Credit applications remained strong as well, up 5% compared to the second quarter of 2020, and up 9% compared to the first quarter. New business volume continues to trend up, led by North America. Requests for loan modifications have returned to historical trends. Moving to slide 15. We're confident that in 2021, we'll achieve our Investor Day target for ME&T free cash flow of $4 billion to $8 billion. ME&T free cash flow was $1.7 billion in the second quarter compared to $500 million last year. The increase in ME&T free cash flow reflected higher profit, offset in part by a $500 million sequential increase in Caterpillar Inventory in the second quarter of 2021. The inventory increases primarily in components and working process inventory, and reflects strengthening end-user demand and our response to supply chain challenges. ME&T free cash flow has been $3.4 billion year-to-date, benefiting from higher profits as well as the absence of paying short-term incentive compensation in the first quarter. We continue to maintain a solid liquidity position in support of our strong mid-A credit rating. The Company ended the period with $10.8 billion of enterprise cash. We've said that we intend to return substantially all of our ME&T free cash flow to shareholders through the cycles. We've said that we will do it through a combination of dividends and share repurchases, reserving our balance sheet to fund additional growth initiatives and mergers and acquisition. In the past three years, we've returned on average, 106% of our ME&T free cash flow to shareholders. This quarter, we announced we'll increase our quarterly dividend by 8% to $1.11 per share, which is about $600 million a quarter. I'm happy to say we expect to extend our status as a dividend aristocrat for another year. We repurchased about $250 million of our common shares this quarter. We have about $4.6 billion remaining under the current share repurchase authorization. We expect to continue to repurchase shares in the second half and intend to at least offset absolute dilution from shares issued during the year. As Jim mentioned, there's no change to our current practice relating to guidance. However, as we've been doing, we are providing color on the upcoming quarter to give you a sense of what we're expecting to happen. Moving to Slide 16. Again, we expect to achieve our Investor Day targets for adjusted operating profit margins in 2021, despite reinstating the short-term incentive compensation program. That's now projected to be a headwind of $1.5 billion for the year or about 300 basis points of pressure on margins. We expect stronger sales than normal seasonality would imply. The growth rate in sales to users should continue to accelerate in the third quarter when compared to the prior year, and should be significantly higher than the 15% rate we saw in the current quarter. In construction industries, we expect improvement in residential and nonresidential construction demand to continue. As we discussed last quarter, we see tougher comparisons in China. Resource Industries end-user demands should see support from both mining and Heavy Construction and Quarry and Aggregates. We also expect Energy and Transportation sales to increase on stronger underlying demand. All of this is expected to lead to good volume growth in the third quarter, even while we manage supply chain challenges. As we told you last quarter, and as Jim mentioned today, whilst dealers are independent businesses and make their own decisions about their inventory, we don't expect a significant benefit from restocking in 2021. Third quarter margins are expected to be stronger than the prior year, with leverage from strong volume more than offsetting the impact of reinstating short-term incentive compensation. However, we anticipate third quarter margins to moderate versus the second quarter, as we see some cost headwinds in the second half of the year. Within Machines, we currently expect price to offset higher manufacturing costs in 2021. In the second quarter, price was strongly positive, reflecting strong geographic mix benefits and higher price realization. We did put through price increases for machines at the end of the second quarter, which will be positive. The geographic mix will be less of a benefit. Although we did take pricing actions, we do expect higher manufacturing costs, which means that our gross margin percentage will be moderately lower in the second half of the year versus the first half. We should also see accelerated spend in SG&A and R&D in the back half of the year, as business gets back to normal. Specifically within Energy and Transportation, we expect some margin headwinds in the second half of the year. As E&T is a lumpy business with varying margin structures across its applications, we expect variability in both price and mix, particularly as larger deals are recognized into revenue. In addition, as many of the E&T applications are expecting -- experiencing different levels of demand, we did not put through additional price increases in the second quarter. So this means material and freight costs increases will be a headwind for that segment. In summary, on Slide 17. Demand continues to strengthen in the quarter, leading to strong volume growth. Adjusted operating profit margins improved by 480 basis points, driven by higher volumes, which more than offset the nearly 300 basis headwind for short-term incentive compensation, and the small headwinds of supply chain disruption and material cost inflation. Adjusted profit per share more than doubled in the quarter. We are confident in the outlook for EAME markets and expect to achieve our Investor Day margin and free cash flow targets. And with that, we'll take your questions.
Operator:
Your first question comes from the line of Jamie Cook from Credit Suisse. As a reminder, management ask that we limit to 1 question per analyst. Your line will be muted after you ask your question. However, if your question is not answered for any reason, or clarification is needed, please get back on to the queue. Jamie, your line is open.
Jamie Cook:
Hi, good morning.
Jim Umpleby:
Morning, Jamie.
Jamie Cook:
My first question, Jim, if you could just provide some more color on what you're seeing on the supply chain side, and when you expect some of the supply chain issues to ease. And to what degree is your 2021 top line limited by supply chain or the inability to get product out the door? Thank you.
Jim Umpleby:
Thanks, Jamie. And firstly, we really appreciate the efforts of our employees to manage the challenges in the supply chain. One of the things that we're seeing [Indiscernible] the course is an improving end user demand is adding pressure in the supply chain and on freight as well. And some of the supply chain challenges are more broad-based than encouraged in a normal upturn. You may think about the last upturn we had casting issues and some other individual component issues. This time, it's more broad-based than is typical. Having said that, again, as we said in the last call, our team is working very hard to avoid or minimize those supply chain challenges that would impact our ability to meet -- to fully meet improving customer and demand. And we think that the impact to the second quarter was modest. And again, we're working very hard to try to limit them. We haven't had some of the large factory shutdowns for weeks that you've read about with some other industrial companies. We've also taken some actions to do things like with resins, we changed our material spec due to shortages that were out there and it helped us to keep production going. Again, majority of our products for end-users are delivered within the normal ranges availability. Some of the bigger challenges have been on the smaller products, PCP, a lot of those products are used in residential in North America. So there those are some of the bigger challenges we're having in terms of availability. But, again, the majority of our products for our end users are within the normal ranges, and we're working very closely with our dealers to try to ensure that we meet actual customer demand.
Operator:
Your next question is from the line of Jerry Revich with Goldman Sachs.
Jerry Revich:
Good morning.
Jim Umpleby:
Good morning, Jerry.
Andrew Bonfield:
Good morning Jerry.
Jerry Revich:
Jim, Andrew, I'm wondering if we could just dig into the environmental goal targets that you just updated us on, in terms of when we look at just quantifying the mix of orders today, that's either your autonomous solutions on mining or zero emissions products In -- across the portfolio. Can you just help us quantify where we stand now in terms of actually driving orders for those types of products for you folks today, that also improve and hit the environmental goals for your customers. Thanks.
Jim Umpleby:
Thank you, Jerry. You mentioned autonomy, and the demand for autonomous products continues to be quite strong. A lot of quotation activity going on. As I mentioned earlier, we currently are deploying autonomous mining equipment in 18 different sites, 10 customers, 3 continents for a whole variety of commodities
Operator:
Your next question is from the line of Rob Wertheimer with Melius Research.
Rob Wertheimer:
Hi, thank you. Good morning, everybody.
Jim Umpleby:
Morning. Rob.
Rob Wertheimer:
I actually have a question on autonomy as well. The expansion of 18 sites is momentum for sure. You've talked in the past about examples of where sites have saved 20 or 30, I think 30% for activities. So not just a driver, but mining more with less cost, less time, less waste, etc. I wonder if you have any update on just, as you've expanded, is that consistent? You've seen that. You mentioned a bunch of different sites you're at, different minerals. Is that consistent across sites? And then is there a potential, at least for CAT to share in some of those savings we saw in hardware at this point, or do you have developing revenue models with customers where you can promise greater productivity, and share in some of the benefits? Thank you.
Jim Umpleby:
Yes. Thank you, Rob. That 30% productivity increases is actually something that was stated by a customer and not us. And so on our view, our customers are in fact seeing productivity gains, which is one of the reasons that adoption continues to move forward. So I believe it's also -- it's really accelerating, so it's clear that our customers are seeing the benefit or they wouldn't be continuing to put an autonomous operation. There's a variety of models that we have that we use with our customers. Typically, there's a monthly kind of fee that we received. Of course, we sell the equipment to them as well. But again, commercial models are very dependent upon individual customer negotiations.
Operator:
Your next question is from the line of David Raso with Evercore ISI.
David Raso:
Hi, good morning.
Jim Umpleby:
Good morning, David.
David Raso:
Just a straightforward, near-term question. The supply chain issues, when we think of your normal -- this historical, normal, sequential revenue, 2Q-3Q, 3Q-4Q, given the supply constraints of a balance, of course, demand is strong, how should we expect the revenue cadence to be, versus the historical norm of third quarter's down about 5%, and then the fourth quarter back about 10%? Thank you.
Andrew Bonfield:
Thanks, David. Hi. Yes. Obviously, what we are seeing though, is this is an a typical year. And as we've indicated, we don't necessarily expect a normal seasonable pattern between Q2 and Q3. Obviously, underlying volumes, we do believe and particularly in end-user too, if we do expect to grow significantly in that rate of growth to be higher in the 15% we saw in Q2. So that will mean that probably we don't expect that normal pattern. And that's the factor which we have to look at. And obviously, the moment we haven't updated about the fourth quarter. But we'll give you an update probably in October.
Operator:
Your next question is from the line of Stephen Volkmann with Jefferies.
Stephen Volkmann:
Good morning, guys. My question is on Resource Industries, and I'm curious if you can give us any color in terms of the growing backlog there on machines relative to parts. And I'm just trying to think about the mix of that business going forward.
Jim Umpleby:
Yes. Thank you, Stephen. As we've mentioned over the last few quarters, we're bullish on the trend in mining. We're seeing a robust quotation activity, we are seeing increased orders. We talked about our timing already, this morning. We have seen, certainly, strength in aftermarket for mining, but we also see strength in OE as well. So again, as utilization improves, as the energy transition drives, higher commodity prices, that is driving activity for us in both parts and OE.
Operator:
Your next question is from the line of Ross Gilardi with Bank of America.
Ross Gilardi:
Good morning, guys.
Jim Umpleby:
Morning Ross.
Ross Gilardi:
Jim, I just had a question just on pipeline activity in general. I mean, there seems to be pretty limited new pipeline activity despite the run-up in energy prices. Would you agree with that? And are you seeing that across your business? I mean, maybe just talk about what you're seeing with solar and with construction equipment and anything else as it relates to pipeline activity. And then just comment on that choice not to raise prices E&T despite cost pressure, is there just too much excess capacity out there to risk losing market share in the second half. Thanks.
Jim Umpleby:
Thank you, Ross. It was mentioned earlier, we do expect -- our customers are displaying capital discipline, and we expect that to continue. In terms of pipeline activity, our business I believe was actually up in the second quarter. And that is one data point. Again, it's -- we'll see how the future unfolds here in terms of Oil and Gas. We are -- we do feel good about a gradual turn-net business. Oil prices are supportive of investment. But again, our customers are displaying that capital discipline. There was a lot of strength in natural gas pipelines for a few years, and that tends to be a cyclical business. If you look back over the last 30 years, just in my experience, you go through periods of very strong activity but followed by periods of lower activity. Again, it's a cyclical business, it goes up and down. But for our business, we did see an improvement in the second quarter in pipeline versus the first.
Andrew Bonfield:
And on the -- specifically on the price increase side, just given that the nature of the recovery within E&T is slightly different from where we are seeing in CI and ROI, where there's obviously a much stronger underlying demand signal. If you saw in the quarter, machines [Indiscernible] end-users was high about 20%, E&T was up 1%. They are in slightly different paces. And therefore, it is a very logical decision to actually take the view that obviously you don't want to put at risk and recovery within the E&T markets. So you will take a little bit of paying on price. In the short-term. However, obviously, within construction businesses, and [Indiscernible] we do expect overall price more than offset manufacturing costs increases. And just remind you, in manufacturing costs, significant amount of that is actually a steep increase which we would not price for as well. And some of that is going to impact EMT.
Operator:
The next question is from the line of Mig Dobre with Baird.
Mig Dobre:
Hi. Thank you for the question. Good morning, everyone.
Jim Umpleby:
Hi, Mig.
Mig Dobre:
Yeah. Just looking to make sure that I have this straight. It sounds to me that you expect revenues to be up sequentially in the third quarter relative to the second based on your end-user demand commentary. In terms of the margin moderating sequentially, it's pretty clear that it's going to be the case with Energy and Transportation. But will the other segments see a similar dynamic and if so, can you help us understand moving pieces and why? Thank you.
Andrew Bonfield:
Yeah. Overall, as we've indicated, we do expect the third quarter to be strong. And obviously, that will -- effectively, streams will be higher. The rate of growth of streams will be higher in Q3 than Q2. We don't give specific guidance on absolute revenue numbers, but obviously, we're giving you a little bit of color there. As far as the margin, yes, [Indiscernible] will moderate that -- some impact as we said of not putting price through. Within CI and RI, within the machine's businesses, obviously, we've seen price benefit part of that price benefit is Geo Mix. Geo Mix will come off a little bit, so there will be an offset between Geo Mix and price. And that's really due to the mix of sales between the different geographies which impacts Geo Mix. So the price won't improve, but obviously you will start seeing some material cost increases. and probably leave some increasing freight cost based on what we're seeing in the market today. That will be where the margin pressure is on the machine side, both CI and RI. Also, in addition, obviously as I said, we do expect some increases in the underlying SG&A and R&D spend as what -- the return to work normalizes and some of the things like travels start opening up and we start seeing some of those expenses come back.
Operator:
Your next question is from the line of Jairam Nathan with Daiwa.
Jairam Nathan:
Hi, thanks for taking my question. I just wanted to try to get your strategy on batteries and fuel cells. Recently, Wabtec announced an agreement with GM where they will be sourcing GM's fuel cells. I just wanted to understand what your strategy is on that. Could it be more internal or would you be open to external sourcing?
Jim Umpleby:
Thanks, Jairam, for your question. You may recall that we introduced last year the first Zero-Emission Switch Locomotive. We sold that to a couple of customers, something we're excited about. But we're very flexible and we're -- we will do certain things ourselves. We'll do certain things with partners and suppliers. But again, we're -- those discussions are ongoing and we'll come up with -- As we do with all of our products, some things we'll make ourselves, some things we'll get from suppliers, some things we'll get from partners. And we're working our way through that.
Operator:
Your next question is from the line of Stanley Elliot with Stifel.
Stanley Elliot:
Hey. Good morning, everyone. Thank you for taking the question. Quick question around infrastructure and the timing of when you-all would see that. Certainly lots of discussion here in the U.S., but really elsewhere. Those monies takes some time to flow through the system. Do you end up seeing end-market demand pick up ahead of that and more concurrent with it? Just trying to get a frame from when we can see that benefit. Thanks.
Jim Umpleby:
Well, thank you for your question. And we already are seeing stronger heavy construction activity. It's something we saw in the second quarter, and we expect that improvement to continue. That is irrespective of an infrastructure bill in the U.S. being passed. We're seeing improvement in that business being driven by a whole variety of things. If in fact there is an infrastructure deal, it's always difficult to estimate timing. Typically, that helps the confidence of our customers, which helps our business. But we are already seeing an improvement in our heavy construction activity. And is, again, we expect that strength to continue moving forward, regardless of a deal or not.
Operator:
The next question is from the line of Ann Duignan with JPMorgan.
Ann Duignan:
Yeah. Hi. Good morning.
Jim Umpleby:
Good morning.
Ann Duignan:
Maybe just your comments on geographic mix in CI and RI being negative. I don't maybe fully understand the CI comment given the strengths you're talking about in [Indiscernible] particular just your comments on the non-REV sector, RI maybe geographic mix. I can appreciate that, but maybe you could just walk us through the comments on the negative mix in both of those segments as we go forward.
Andrew Bonfield:
Sorry, Ann. I hadn't thought to confuse you. It's actually not -- it's not negative, but it's sequentially lower, the benefit of geo mix. And most of that is, obviously -- if you remember last year, when we looked to geo mix, there was a big move between, obviously, China, in the second half of the year was very strong recovery. The U.S., we saw [Indiscernible] inventory reductions and softer demand. There was a negative drag on geo mix. First quarter, obviously, China was very strong in CI, the U.S. slightly weaker. Obviously, now in the second quarter, we've seen that turnaround quite significantly, and that gave us a big benefit of geo mix in Q2. That will moderate because the -- it develops a gap of North America versus the other geographies will actually diminish. That's how it works. And that's why we think it will actually still be a benefit, but will be less positive than it was in Q2. However, we do expect the price increases we put through to offset that. We'll see how the price realization mitigate that impact.
Operator:
Your next question is from the line of Nicole DeBlase with Deutsche Bank.
Nicole DeBlase:
Yeah, thanks. Good morning, guys.
Jim Umpleby:
Morning, Nicole.
Andrew Bonfield:
Hi, Nicole.
Nicole DeBlase:
Can we just talk a little bit more about what's going on in China construction, and what's driving your confidence in a flat outcome for the year given the tough comps throughout the rest of the year? And also, if you could talk a little bit about what you're seeing from a pricing perspective in that market? Thank you.
Jim Umpleby:
You bet. This is a reminder, last year was a very strong market in China, very strong. And we saw a very strong first quarter this year as well. We did see the industry declined modestly in the second quarter. And that's, again, as we expected. And it's, I think some policy normalization there drove that weakness. But just based on everything we see, we are expecting the full year to be roughly flat to last year. But as a reminder, that's a very healthy level because last year was so strong. That's what we see. I mentioned earlier about the fact that our GX models have been well-received. We're very pleased with that product introduction. It is a competitive market. And you asked about pricing, it's a competitive market. But, again, by introducing new products, by continuing to build better dealer network, we're confident in our ability to continue to be able to compete in China.
Operator:
Your next question is from the line of Joel Tiss with BMO.
Joel Tiss:
Thanks for giving me a chance here. Can you give us an idea how much dealer inventory is needed to get back to more normalized levels? I know it's a moving target. And also is that more of a catching up in 2022 or the way things look today that some of that might leak into 2023?
Andrew Bonfield:
Joel, thanks. This is Andrew. Obviously, as we said, we expect this year not to see any significant benefit from dealer restocking. Obviously, and that prioritization, given some of the supply chain challenges, is absolutely meeting end-user demand. Obviously, we need to see how things pan out in 2022. Again, we will always prioritize making sure that we are meeting end-user demand over increasing inventory in the dealer channel. Obviously, that will be something we will continue to work with our dealers on, making sure that they do it. It's way too early to predict whether -- when dealer inventory will rise. Obviously, we'll continue to monitor that, and we'll update you as we go through every quarter.
Operator:
Your next question is from the line of Noah Kaye with Oppenheimer.
Christine Antonella:
Good morning, everyone. This is Christine Antonella. Thank you for taking our question. I wanted to follow up on the mining activity and some of the quoting that you talked about. You indicated that [Indiscernible] is driving that strength more than mining. Just given commodity basket near historic highs, the high utilization that you talked about, conditions seem really right for a significant mining cycle. But as you talk to your customers, what's holding the end market back at this point? And when do you think that spending breaks loose? Thank you.
Jim Umpleby:
Good morning, Christine. Thanks for your question. Well, as we've been discussing for several quarters on mining. We've been bullish on the long-term trend in mining. And we are seeing an improvement in that business. It's going to be lumpy, but again, the trend is quite positive. So I wouldn't say anything is holding it back. It's really. manifesting itself much as we've been predicting for the last 3 or 4 earnings calls, steady improvement in mining, and it's continuing to happen. So, again, a lot of quotation activity. It's -- our customers are always very focused on capital discipline. But having said that, utilization high is high, part trucks are low across all regions. Commodity prices, as you indicated, are quite strong. So it's turning out as we expected, which is a steady gradual improvement in mining and we're very pleased at that. Honestly, that kind of a profile, I think, is better for everybody than spike ups and then a drop, and a spike up and a drop. We love to see that steady improvement.
Operator:
And your final question for today comes from Chad Dillard with Bernstein.
Chad Dillard:
Hi. Good morning, guys. Thanks for squeezing me in.
Jim Umpleby:
Hi, Chad.
Andrew Bonfield:
Hi, Chad.
Jim Umpleby:
Good morning.
Chad Dillard:
A couple questions for you. First, more near-term, can you quantify the material and freight costs for the second half in 2021? And then longer term, can you just talk about your conversations with mining customers on electric drive equipment? By when do you think there's broader adoption? What do you think in terms of parts intensity versus internal combustion? And what, if any, new revenue streams could there be from that transition?
Andrew Bonfield:
Obviously, we do not give a guidance on what we think the cost will be. As we said, we do think they will be higher in the second half. Again, just to remind you, price will be about the same. We expect for the full year for machines for price to more than offset increases in manufacturing costs. And that increases in manufacturing costs also include short-term incentive compensation, which again is not only higher versus last year, but it was also above that baseline level given the results we have. It is a moving part. There's lots of [Indiscernible] moving parts within there. Absorption rates have an impact and so forth as well. Overall though, yes, they are increasing, they are our pressure. However, probably we don't see -- it's more that we saw such strong favorability. Remember Q1, we actually had material costs and manufacturing costs were favorable. And, also, we saw our very minimal price, still stronger price in Q2 and the small increase in manufacturing costs. That just means that manufacturing costs will get greater and more mitigate/offset some of that price we're seeing. So that gives you a range to work to.
Jim Umpleby:
And then to answer your mining question, we're working very closely with our customers to help them achieve their sustainability goals. There is a wide variety of different approaches, as you can imagine, between -- from customer to customer, but also from geography to geography as well. And so there is no one answer to that. Again, we're working very closely with our customers. And now, since we made it at the appropriate time, we had one in NMG this quarter, as just an example of some of the things that we're doing to support our customers. Again, those adoption rates will vary, geographically and by customer.
Operator:
Okay. And with that, we'll conclude our Q&A session. Now, let me turn the call back over to Jim Umpleby.
Jim Umpleby:
Well, thanks, everyone. Really appreciate you joining the call this morning. And we thank you for all your questions. We continue to focus on executing their strategy for long-term profitable growth, which, as you recall, includes services, expanded offerings, and operational excellence. Congratulations to our team. We had a strong quarter. We're pleased that there's strength in demand coming from all regions. And we're optimistic about our ability to solve the challenges that arise. And also to continue supporting our customers as they move forward. Thank you again.
Jennifer Driscoll:
Thanks, Jim. We'll close with a few final reminders. A replay of our call will be available online later this morning. We'll also post a transcript on the Investor Relations website later today. If you look there now, you'll find a second quarter results video with our CFO, and an SEC filing with our sales to users data. Click on investors.caterpillar.com, and then click on Financials to view those materials. If you have any questions, please reach out to Rob or me. You can reach Rob at [email protected], and me at [email protected]. The Investor Relations general phone number is (309) 675-4549. We hope you enjoy the rest of your day and have a fun weekend. Now I'll turn it back to Whitney to conclude the call.
Operator:
That does concludes today's conference call. Thank you, everybody for joining.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by, and welcome to the First Quarter 2021 Caterpillar Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. [Operator Instructions] I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Jennifer Driscoll. Thank you. Please go ahead.
Jennifer Driscoll:
Thank you, Jason. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Caterpillar's First Quarter 2021 Earnings Call. Joining me this morning are Jim Umpleby, Chairman of the Board and CEO; Andrew Bonfield, Chief Financial Officer; Kyle Epley, Vice President of the Global Finance Services Division; and Rob Rengel, Senior IR Manager. During our call today, we will be discussing the earnings news release we issued earlier this morning. You can find our slides, the news release, and a videos recap at investors.caterpillar.com by clicking on Events & Presentations. Also please note that we published a new Caterpillar 2020 Data Book for investors, which you can also find today on the homepage of the IR website. The forward-looking statements we make today are subject to risks and uncertainties. We will also make assumptions that could cause our actual results to be different than the information we are sharing with you on this call. Please refer to our recent SEC filings and the forward-looking statements reminder in the news release for details on factors that individually or in aggregate could cause our actual results to vary materially from our forecast. Caterpillar has copyrighted this call, and we prohibit use of any portion of it without the prior written approval of the company. Today, we reported profit per share of $2.77 for the first quarter compared with $1.98 in the first quarter of 2020. We are showing adjusted profit per share in addition to our U.S. GAAP results. Our adjusted profit per share was $2.87 for the first quarter that compares with first quarter 2020 adjusted profit per share of $1.65. Adjusted profit per share for both quarters excluded restructuring costs. The first quarter of 2020 also excluded a remeasurement gain of $0.38 per share, resulting from the settlement of a non-U.S. pension obligation. We provide a non-GAAP reconciliation in the appendix to this morning's news release. You can also find information on dealer inventory and backlog in our earnings call slides. Speaking of slides, before I turn it to Jim, there have been a few questions this morning on slide 16 key thoughts on the second quarter, the final bullet, we expect the operating profit margin percentage in the second quarter of 2021 to be moderately below the margin in the first quarter of 2021. Now with that, let's flip to slide three and turn the call over to our Chairman and CEO, Jim Umpleby.
Jim Umpleby:
Good morning. Thanks, Jennifer. I'd like to begin by thanking our global team for continuing to safely provide the essential products and services that enable our customers to support society during the pandemic. Our engaged team continues to execute our strategy, which is demonstrated by our first quarter results. I'll begin with my perspectives on the first quarter and our supply chain before discussing our end markets. Starting with the top line on slide four, we’re pleased with the strong sales and profit performance in the first quarter. Sales increased 12% on better-than-expected growth in end user demand and the favorable impact of changes in dealer inventory. The decision to hold extra Caterpillar inventory to prepare for a potential increase in market demand served us well. Total sales to users rose about 8%. Sales to users have trended better for the last three quarters from a year-over-year comparative perspective. Machine sales to users increased 13% in the quarter as Construction Industries and Resource Industries were stronger than we expected. Within Construction Industries, Asia-Pacific was particularly strong led by robust growth in China. Resource Industries sales to users were flat as market conditions continued to improve in mining. While sales to users for Energy & Transportation declined by 5% for the quarter, these results were roughly in line with our expectation and reflected industry trends. Dealer inventory increased about $700 million, which was above the seasonal build we expected. That compares with an increase of about $100 million in last year's first quarter. Operating profit in the quarter increased 29% to $1.8 billion, driven primarily by higher volume, effective cost control, and financial products. We delivered an operating margin of 15.3%. Adjusted operating margin came in at 15.8%, an improvement of 230 basis points versus a year ago and 300 basis points higher than our fourth quarter of last year, which had a lower level of sales. Operating margins expanded in all three primary segments, with the largest increase coming from Construction Industries. Andrew will provide more color concerning our margin performance in a few minutes. ME&T free cash flow was very strong, and approximately $1.7 billion for the quarter. Our quarterly dividend was unchanged, and share repurchases remained paused in the first quarter. I'll now provide a few additional comments about the external environment. As Andrew will discuss, we're not providing annual earnings guidance at this time. We're pleased with our strong start to the year, and there are positive signs in a number of our end markets. However, we're monitoring a variety of external factors that could moderate the positive impact of continuing improvement in market conditions. These include the pandemic's recent acceleration in several overseas markets, the potential for supply chain disruptions and cost pressures. Areas of particular focus include semiconductors, transportation, and raw materials. While none of these has significantly impacted our operations, there remains the potential for impact later this year. The situation remains very fluid. Our team has been developing contingency plans, including workarounds in our factories that may lead to increased costs. We're working very hard to avoid or minimize having supply chain issues lead to production shortfalls that might impact our ability to fully meet improving customer demand. And now moving to slide five, I'll share some thoughts on our end markets based on what we see today. Starting with Construction Industries, North America will continue to benefit from strong residential demand. We see non-residential construction recovering at a gradual pace with infrastructure recovering faster than non-residential building. We expect growth in Asia-Pacific to remain robust through the first half, driven by China. Government spending on infrastructure in China has fueled strong excavator demand, including strong demand for our new GX excavator line. We see improving demand in EAME and continued recovery in Latin America as well, although we are monitoring the recent acceleration of COVID in some Latin American countries. Turning to Resource Industries, we anticipate continued improvement in demand, particularly in mining. Favorable commodity prices support higher CapEx for mining customers. We continue to feel optimistic about mining. We have a strong value proposition, particularly in autonomy-enabled products. We also expect growth in heavy construction in quarry and aggregates off a low base. In Energy & Transportation, we expect strengthening across a number of applications. Oil and gas should continue to slowly improve from low levels as customers remain disciplined with their CapEx spend. The power generation market should benefit from continued strength in data centers. Industrial is expected to see growth with activity strengthening across most applications. In transportation, rail and marine are expected to see slight improvements from the first quarter, although from a low base. We expect the company's top line to reflect normal seasonality in the second quarter. Turning to slide six, we expect to meet our Investor Day targets for adjusted operating margins in 2021. As we stated before, our target is 300 basis points to 600 basis points of improvement in our adjusted operating margins versus the 2010 to 2016 period. We delivered at this level for four straight years now, including during the pandemic, which is a testament to our talented team and focused execution of our strategy. Machine, Energy, & Transportation's free cash flow was strong in the first quarter. These results strengthen our confidence that we'll meet our Investor Day target for ME&T free cash flow in 2021. The target is $4 billion to $8 billion or $1 billion to $2 billion higher than we generated in the 2010 to 2016 period. We paid annual higher dividends to shareholders for 27 consecutive years, and we're proud of our status as a dividend aristocrat. We're working with our Board of Directors on decisions concerning their potential dividend increase later this year. We're also discussing with our Board the appropriate time to recommence share repurchases. It remains our intention to return substantially all of our ME&T free cash flow to shareholders through the cycles. Turning to slide seven, we remain committed to our strategy, which we launched in 2017. The strategy is focused on services, expanded offerings, and operational excellence to drive long-term profitable growth. We continue to invest in expanded offerings, new technologies, and services as we did throughout 2020. In February, we closed on our acquisition of the Oil and Gas division of the Weir Group PLC and launched SPM Oil & Gas. This strategic transaction enhances our ability to serve existing customers by enabling us to offer a more complete integrated solution from engine to wellhead. In fact, to lower their carbon footprint, some customers have placed orders for SPM 5000 horsepower pumps paired with CAT G3520 natural gas powered generator sets for use in electrified pumping applications. We also continue to invest in our digital capabilities to allow us to leverage our more than 1 million connected assets. We're developing proprietary algorithms called Prioritized Service Events, or PSEs, that provide qualified services leads to our global dealer network. Our leads range from repair options that are asset serial number specific to complete fleet level solutions. We continue to make it easy for customers to have more predictable maintenance costs through customer value agreements, or CVAs. During the past quarter, we released our first Diversity Inclusion Report. The report describes our journey to build a more globally diverse workforce and inclusive environment to support our employees and the communities where we live and work. We value diverse perspectives and strive to ensure our global team reflects the many communities and customers we serve around the world. We're currently preparing our 2020 Sustainability Report, which will highlight progress against our 2020 goals and introduce new sustainability goals. We're committed to contributing to a reduced carbon future by continuing to reduce Caterpillar's greenhouse gas emissions and helping customers achieve their climate-related objectives. In summary, I'm pleased with our strong start to the year and proud of the performance by our global team. With that, I'll turn the call over to Andrew.
Andrew Bonfield:
Thank you, Jim, and good morning, everyone. I will start out with an overview of our first quarter results. Then, I'll discuss segment performance and the balance sheet before concluding with some comments on the second quarter and remainder of 2021. As we reported this morning and shown on slide eight, sales and revenues for the first quarter increased by 12% to $11.9 billion on higher volumes. Operating profit of $1.8 billion rose by 29%, reflecting margin expansion, primarily due to higher volumes. First quarter profit per share was $2.77 compared to $1.98 in 2020. Adjusted profit per share was $2.87. It was a strong quarter. End user demand was better than our expectations, primarily in Construction Industries, which also led to higher operating margins than we anticipated. Our adjusted operating profit margin increased by 230 basis points to 15.8%. The higher operating profit reflected higher volume, solid execution, good cost management, and strength in the financial products portfolio. These benefits more than offset the impact of reinstating the short-term incentive compensation program. Looking more closely at the top line on slide nine. The 12% increase in reported sales and revenues reflected strong growth in Asia-Pacific, Latin America, and EAME. North America was about flat. In aggregate, sales to users increased by 8%. Dealer inventory rose as is seasonally typical led by Construction Industries. It increased by about $700 million versus an increase of about $100 million last year. Sales to users for Construction Industries increased by 17% versus the prior year as end user demand, principally North America, was better than our expectations. All geographic regions improved. Asia-Pacific rose 36%, Latin America rose 38%, and EAME rose 11%. North America increased 5% making -- marking its third straight quarter of sequential improvement in quarter-over-quarter end user demand. Resource Industries, which tends to be lumpy was flat, whereas we had expected a modest decline. Energy & Transportation sales to users decreased by 5%, which is broadly in line with our expectations. Amidst stronger demand, availability remained within normal ranges for the vast majority of our products. However, we've had some isolated instances impacting a handful of products, such as two compact product families in our Building Construction Products portfolio. In these cases, we haven't been able to ramp up production as quickly as we'd like, mostly due to isolated issues with a small number of specific supplies and/or labor availability. We are working hard to resolve these issues. Now, moving to slide 10. Operating profit increased to $1.8 billion. The 29% improvement reflected better volume in three primary segments and higher profits from financial products. That was partly offset by the impact of restoring short-term incentive compensation and some of the unfavorable price. Excluding the impact of short-term incentive compensation, manufacturing costs were favorable. We did see some benefit from lower material and warranty costs. We also had benefits from high absorption of our manufacturing costs due to the level of Caterpillar inventory we built ahead of our second quarter selling season. Obviously, certain spending such as travel and consulting is still being impacted by the lingering effects of COVID-19, which further improves our overall margins. In total, we delivered an adjusted operating margin of 15.8%. The effective tax rate is 26%, which is the lower end of the range we anticipated in January. That excludes discrete tax benefits of $43 million or $0.08 per share in the first quarter. Now, let me discuss the individual segments results for the first quarter, beginning on slide 11. For Construction Industries, sales increased by 27% to $5.5 billion compared to the prior year. Volume improved due to higher end user demand and the impact from increases in dealer inventories. End user demand increased across all regions and was especially pronounced in Asia-Pacific. This was led by China, which was negatively impacted by the pandemic in the first quarter of 2020, while supported in the first quarter of this year by government infrastructure spend. In North America, high end user demand was primarily fueled by residential construction. In total, dealers increased their inventories by more this quarter compared to the prior, principally in the Asia-Pacific region, which benefited from the later Chinese New Year. The segment's first quarter profit increased by 62% to $1.035 billion, due to the leverage on higher sales volume. Unfavorable price realization reflected geographic mix as the mix of sales shifted towards the Asia-Pacific region. This and the impact of reinstating our short-term incentive plan, partly offset the volume benefits. The segment operating margin increased by 410 basis points to 19%. As shown on slide 12, Resource Industries sales increased by 6% versus the prior year to $2.2 billion. The most significant drivers were changes in dealer inventories and higher end user demand for equipment and aftermarket parts. End user demand increases were driven by mining. Commodity prices, coupled with the increased mine site activity, were both supportive. Demand in Heavy Construction and Quarry and Aggregates remained subdued. Sales increase in Latin America and EAME, were about flat in Asia-Pacific, and decreased in North America. The segment's first quarter profit increased by 8% to $328 million. The improvement was mainly due to lower manufacturing costs and higher sales volumes. Manufacturing costs reflected benefits from cost absorption, lower warranty expense, and improvements in efficiency. Price realization was a partial offset in the quarter due to several large strategic deals. These deals support higher field population and services growth in the future, making them attractive over the long-term. These benefits were partly offset by the impact of reinstating our short-term incentive plan. The segment's operating margin rose by 20 basis points to 14.8%. Now, turning to slide 13. First quarter sales of Energy & Transportation increased by 4% to $4.5 billion. That included 6% sales increase in Oil and Gas, largely due to higher sales of reciprocating engine aftermarket parts in North America. Power generation sales improved by 13% due to increased sales for turbines and turbine-related services as well as large reciprocating engine applications as datacenter activity remained strong. Industrial sales were about flat. Transportation declined by 12%, mostly due to lower deliveries of locomotives and related services in North America as well as lower activity in marine. E&T's first quarter profit increased by 11% to $666 million. The improvement was led by higher sales volume, including intersegment sales and favorable variable manufacturing costs. That was partially offset by the impact of short-term incentive compensation expense. The segment's operating margin increased by 100 basis points to 14.8%. As Jim mentioned, we closed on our acquisition of SPM Oil & Gas in early February, and the integration is going well. The impact was not material to either sales or earnings for the quarter. Moving to slide 14. Financial Products revenue decreased by $53 million or 7% to $761 million. The decline was due to lower average financing rates and lower average earning assets in North America. However, the segment profit improved on both a year-over-year and a sequential basis. Segment profit of $244 million increased 132% year-over-year, led by the mark-to-market impact on equity securities in our insurance services portfolio in addition to a lower provision for credit losses at CAT Financial. The provision was favorable due to in part the absence of forecasted COVID-19-related impacts, which reduced our allowance for credit losses. Beyond these impacts, Financial Products profit was relatively flat in the quarter. Past dues at the end of the first quarter were 2.9%, down 123 basis points year-over-year and down 59 basis points compared to the fourth quarter of last year. Credit applications remained strong as well, up 25% compared with the first quarter of 2020. While credit applications in the first quarter decreased compared to the fourth quarter, the sequential reduction was much smaller than normal seasonality would suggest which bodes well for the future. Loan modifications were generally in line with historical trends, aside from a few countries where government -- the government is still mandating modifications due to COVID-19. We're pleased to see that overall our customers remain in good financial health. Now on slide 15. As Jim mentioned, we expect to achieve our Investor Day target for our Machinery, Energy, and Transportation free cash flow of $4 billion to $8 billion this year. Free cash flow from ME&T was about $1.7 billion in the quarter versus about zero in the first quarter last year. The increase reflects higher profit, the absence of the short-term incentive compensation payout and favorable working capital, the latter being due to higher payables. In the first quarter, Caterpillar inventory rose about $700 million versus the fourth quarter as we increased production to meet improving end user demand. We are happy with our decision to hold higher levels of inventory as we exited 2020, as this has enabled us to ramp up production in the first quarter to meet our demand signals. As Jim said, there is potential for supply chain disruptions and cost pressures on the horizon, and we're working hard to meet those challenges. We maintained a strong liquidity position and ended the first quarter with $11.3 billion in enterprise cash. Our balance sheet remains strong. We now have mid-A credit ratings across all of the major working agencies as Moody's upgraded its rating on Caterpillar last week. Our intention continues to be to return substantially all ME&T free cash flow to shareholders through the cycles via dividends and share repurchases. In the last three years, we've returned 106% of ME&T free cash flow to shareholders. We recently declared our normal quarterly dividend of $1.03 per share or $560 million per quarter. We expect the Board will review a potential dividend increase later this year. We also expect to recommence share repurchases later this year. We are not providing guidance for 2021, and I'll explain the reason why. At the current time, we are positive about the improving market conditions. On the other hand, there is some known risk which are hard to quantify, and the impact is such that the range of possible outcomes for 2021, while still positive, is actually quite wide at this stage of the year. Turning to slide 16. Overall, we expect second quarter sales to follow normal seasonality. We also expect overall growth in sales to users versus the prior year’s quarterly comparative to be a significantly higher percentage than we saw in the first quarter, and that is mainly due to easier comparisons. A reminder that the second and third quarters saw the biggest impacts from the pandemic on total sales to users in 2020. We also don’t expect to see a significant change in dealer inventories compared to the end of the first quarter of this year. In Construction Industries, we expect sales to users to show continued positive growth, as strength in residential construction in North America continues. Non-residential construction is expected to recover at a gradual pace throughout the year. We expect China construction to remain strong, although the comparatives for China becomes more challenging in the second half of 2021 versus the prior year as China recovered more quickly from the effects of the pandemic. We expect strong end user demand in Resource Industries compared to the prior year's quarter, as demand in both mining and heavy construction in quarry and aggregates are expected to increase due to supportive commodity prices and the restart of investments that were delayed last year. We expect to see continued improvement in end user demand as of the rest of the year as orders are strong, amidst increasing minor CapEx spend. We also expect the recovery of heavy construction and quarry and aggregates from their low levels in 2020. We expect Energy & Transportation sales to increase versus second quarter of 2020. We expect Oil & Gas sales to have a slight growth, but customers will remain disciplined with CapEx. Solar had a strong second quarter in 2020 due to the timing of deliveries, which will make the comparisons tougher. Power generation and industrial are expected to grow versus the prior year. We expect slight improvement in transportation sales. Marine should improve but remain at low levels, and rail is expected to be relatively flat. Looking ahead to the rest of the year, we expect a modest recovery through the year as sales in E&T increased across all applications. Recovery in Oil & Gas should be slower as excess capacity and inventory overhang could limit upside. In power generation, datacenters should lead an overall improving industry. Our expectations for solar has not changed, so we expect a relatively flat year. Industrial should grow moderately, transportation should improve on strengthened rail services and international business, while we expect marine to remain at lower levels. Dealer inventory remains near the low end of the normal range. Changes in dealer inventories going forward will depend on a number of factors, including their views of future demand as well as supply chain limitations. At this stage, we do not expect a significant benefit from restocking in 2021. As I discussed earlier, first quarter adjusted operating margins were particularly strong, improving by 230 basis points despite the impact of reinstating short-term incentive compensation. There are a number of reasons why we expect the margin improvement to moderate as we go through the second quarter and the rest of the year. We saw positive material costs in the first quarter, the benefits of holding more inventory in 2020 flow through the P&L. With the supply chain pressures and rising commodity costs, we expect material costs to become a headwind starting with the second quarter. Freight costs were negative in the quarter. The constraints on freight are well known and will continue to impact us as we go through the year. Specific to the second quarter, we do expect absorption to be a headwind as we built Caterpillar inventory in the first quarter ahead of the selling season. On the other side of the equation, we expect prices to become favorable as we go through the year as geographic mix improves and the impact of price increases -- increasingly flow through, particularly in the second half. SG&A and R&D expenses increased in the first quarter due to short-term incentive compensation expense. As we progressed through the year, we expect spend in these areas to accelerate. COVID-related restrictions on things like travel are impacting spend, and we are also anticipating ramping up R&D project spending to support our services growth strategy as well as new product development. Investments in R&D can be comfortably managed within our Investor Day margin targets. As Jim mentioned, we remain positive, but we're diligently monitoring the risks and their potential impact going forward. It's a fluid situation in terms of potential supply challenges, raw material cost pressures, and pandemic-related concerns; areas where we have varying levels of control. Our aim is to minimize the impact of these factors and maximize factory uptime so we can satisfy improving customer demand. Looking at some of our technical guidance, we had approximately $350 million in restructuring expense in 2020, and we still expect about $400 million in restructuring expense for 2021. The headwind from incentive compensation will now be approximately $325 million per quarter versus the $225 million estimated in January. We now anticipate a tax rate of 26% for the full year, which is at the lower end of our prior range. Our estimate for CapEx this year remains about $1.2 billion. Turning to slide 17. In summary, we expect to beat our Investor Day targets for adjusted operating margin and ME&T free cash flow in 2021. We continue to execute our strategy by investing in services and expanding offerings. These help us achieve a strong topline growth and solid margin expansion in our three primary segments, as well as higher profits from financial products. It was a strong start to the year. There are some risks that we have to deal with as we move forward, particularly around the supply chain where we are positive about the year and our team's ability to meet improving customer demand. With that, we are happy to take questions.
Jennifer Driscoll:
Thank you, Jason.
Operator:
At this time, we will open the Q&A session. [Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from the line of Ann Duignan from JPMorgan. Your line is open.
Ann Duignan:
Hi. Good morning, everybody.
Jim Umpleby:
Good morning, Ann.
Ann Duignan:
You answered a lot of my questions in your last comments there, but I will just go back through it again for modeling purposes. But could you talk a little bit about the cadence of revenue and earnings through the rest of the year? I appreciate that margins would be down in Q2 given the absorption you got from inventory building in Q1? But of the things you can control, can you talk about them in a little bit more detail, R&D spend for the year, SG&A as a percent of sales, maybe how much of your steel is hedged versus not hedged given the stronger than expected demand. And then, your comments about potentially not being able to meet end market demand this year, are you confident that that demand will roll into 2022 and extend the cycle or is there any risk that you lose market share or that demand disappears as end market -- as customers get frustrated? Thank you.
Jim Umpleby:
Well, good morning, Ann. This is Jim. I'll answer your last question first, and I'll turn it back over to Andrew for the rest. Just -- on that supply chain, as we mentioned, we're working very hard to avoid or minimize allowing supply chain issues to lead to production shortfalls that would impact our ability to meet this improving customer demand. So, at this point, we're not saying that we'll definitely have a problem. We want to flag that it's a risk that we're managing, but certainly our goal is to, again, work very hard to minimize or limit any impact there. So, I don't want to speculate on -- go beyond that. That's really where we are.
Andrew Bonfield:
Okay. And then, talking about our overall margins, as I indicated a few months ago, I mean, we actually saw material cost favorability in the first quarter. That's for a couple of reasons. Obviously, the inventory we held at the end of 2020 flows through the P&L now. And also, as you -- we do buy steel forward. We have about three-to-six-month full contract, normally on steel purchases. So, we do expect material costs to move from positive to negative as we move forward, however, we are pricing accordingly, and with geo mix as well becoming favorable, we hope to be able to offset the two. Obviously, there is continued risk obviously on material inflation as we look out. Overall though, as we always remind you commodity costs -- commodity increases are a net positive for us at Caterpillar, because it helps our customers buy more. On SG&A and R&D, spend was relatively low in Q1, part of that, obviously -- although -- obviously we did have short-term incentive comp increases, part of that obviously is in the environment. We’re still working and we’re still ramping up, going on projects -- –obviously, we [ph] got new projects. We ended a lot of projects at the end of last year. Starting them becomes a lot more difficult in an environment where people aren’t altogether. We expect that to accelerate as we go through the year, that particularly will impact R&D spend. And then obviously travel will impact SG&A as we get people back out on the road and people want to go out and meet customers. That will impact as we go forward. So, those are the sort of bits. As far as the top line is concerned, I mean, obviously, that's going to depend on as we talked about the ability to meet the demand profile out there, and how actually customers feel as we go through the year. As we indicated, demand signals are improving. And obviously, that's going to be something we'll continue to monitor and may impact overall how the quarters trend out from a topline perspective.
Jennifer Driscoll:
And just a reminder, one question per analyst, if you would. Next?
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Brett Linzey from Vertical Research. Your line is open.
Brett Linzey:
Good morning and thank you. Wanted to come back to your comment that you expect to meet your adjusted operating margin target, maybe just a little more context there. Are you suggesting the midpoint is a reasonable expectation or are there particular corridors within that range, upper half, lower half as a good planning assumption for the year? Thanks.
Jim Umpleby:
Good morning, Brett. Thanks for your question. We're not going to try to go into that level of detail. So, what we're saying is that we'll be within our target range for adjusted operating margins, but again with all the puts and takes that we described this morning, we're not going to get into -- telling you exactly where we are within that range, but we expect to be within it.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Jamie Cook from Credit Suisse. Your line is open.
Jamie Cook:
Hi, good morning and nice quarter.
Jim Umpleby:
Thanks, Jamie.
Jamie Cook:
My question is with -- my question is with regards to research. I think you talked about in your prepared remarks, some strategic deals as you're trying to grow your service business. So, I'm just wondering, is this sort of a one-off thing? Is this something that will happen more often within Resource that you're trying to grow the -- your service business and implications for margins for your Resource business throughout the cycle because of these initiatives? Thanks.
Jim Umpleby:
Well, thanks Jamie. Within Resource Industries, we have Energy & Transportation occasionally as well. It's a lumpy business where you can have a large project move quarter-to-quarter, move our margins, move our price realization. And the comments that we made were in the context of price. And we talked about the fact that we had a large strategic -- in large strategic deals count in the quarter, book in the quarter that impacted price. So, we always -- when we look at a project, we take into account the future services opportunity. We always do that. And so, again, with those lumpy [ph] businesses, you should expect things to move around quarter-to-quarter, and what we're really focused on is that long-term profitable growth that comes from growing services, seeding the population, growing the aftermarket, but you'll see things move around up and down. We see that in both E&T and in Resource Industries, and I think that will continue.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Mig Dobre from Baird. Your line is open.
Mircea Dobre:
Thank you. Good morning, everyone. I was wondering if you can maybe provide a little more context around what you're seeing in mining. Certainly, you're sounding more positive, but I'm kind of curious if you can maybe talk a little bit about how your orders or backlog have been progressing here, and look I mean, some of the commodity prices out there are back to prior highs, 2011highs. So, I'm kind of wondering here, are you actually starting to see a real replacement cycle on the OE side starting to develop? Thank you.
Jim Umpleby:
Mig, thanks for your question. And as you indicated, certainly copper, iron, iron ore, gold, all very, very strong, and we've been talking about this for the last few quarters that we're having very positive conversations with our mining customers. Certainly, they're being disciplined in their capital expenditures, but things are improving. So, our orders are improving. There's a number of projects that we're tendering that are multi-year in nature where we feel very positive about our competitive position because of our autonomous solution across a number of products. So, again, as I talked about earlier, we're not expecting a very fast ramp up or a spike. We're seeing more of a gradual improvement, and that's continuing. And so, again, we're quite encouraged by what we see, and we start to think about how Caterpillar is positioned from a mining perspective as the energy transition occurs with the growth of EVs with just the amount of demand that will be created by that, Caterpillar is very well-positioned to do -- to take advantage of that and to serve our customers, make them more successful, and it'll be good for us and our dealers as well. [End]
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Rob Wertheimer from Melius Research. Your line is open.
Rob Wertheimer:
Hi. Good morning and thank you. My question is on connected asset. You touched on it briefly. I just wonder if you can detail any more progress where the opportunities seem to be widening as you look into what you can do for your customers versus your targets. And then, just in general, we've seen some industrial companies start to partner with a tech company maybe for the AI or the machine learning analytics side of it, and you've maybe gone a foot down that road and back again. Does it feel like your strategy is fully fleshed out, and what you're going to do with it or are you still learning and might you still partner? Is there something else you need? Just an update, please. Thank you.
Jim Umpleby:
Thanks, Rob. Services is a never-ending journey, so it will never be done. And as I know, you're aware we've invested heavily in our digital capabilities, and we're continuing to do that. We are -- we've got over a million connected assets, and we are now working to leverage those connected assets to find ways to add value to our customers. And again, that also adds value to Caterpillar and our dealers. I mentioned in my prepared remarks about prioritized service events, or PSEs. That is something that we're fleshing out and continuing to invest in. So, if your question is, are we there yet? No, we're not there. We are continuing to invest. This is a long journey, but we're pleased by the progress that we've been making over the last two or three years.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Ross Gilardi from Bank of America. Your line is open.
Ross Gilardi:
Thanks. Good morning, guys.
Jim Umpleby:
Good morning, Ross.
Ross Gilardi:
I just wanted to go back to the question I asked a few quarters ago. It sort of piggybacks off of Mig’s question on mining. And is there anything structural that's holding you back in your core mining equipment business to offset some of these positives that you mentioned? I'm not talking heavy construction or quarry, but just core mining equipment, whether it's your coal [ph] exposure. I mean, is autonomy in any way cannibalizing new equipment demand? It's just -- it's a bit puzzling that the business is still doing $2 billion to $2.5 billion of revenue per quarter, which is pretty much where you've been since 2014, and should we think of RI just sort of long term, just range bound in an $8 billion to $10 billion annual revenue range through the cycle?
Jim Umpleby:
Well, as I mentioned earlier, again, we are optimistic about our mining business. We believe that mining will benefit from many of the trends that are occurring in terms of the energy transition. We're very pleased with our competitive position due to autonomy and other capabilities that we have as well, our dealers our product support. So, actually, we're quite optimistic. And so, I'm quite the opposite really of being negative about it. We're quite optimistic about the opportunity for future profitable growth in mining. We've been talking for a number of quarters that we don't expect a rapid peak or a rapid acceleration. We've talked about a gradual improvement, and I think we talked about it the last few quarters, and that's what we're starting to see. So, again, things are playing out very much as we had expected and as we shared with all of you in our previous earnings calls.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Nicole DeBlase from Deutsche Bank. Your line is open.
Nicole DeBlase:
Thanks. Good morning, guys.
Jim Umpleby:
Good morning.
Nicole DeBlase:
Can we talk just a bit about the price cost environment in construction and [technical difficulty] what you are seeing from a competitive perspective, your ability to raise price to combat raw material inflation throughout the rest of the year?
Andrew Bonfield:
Yeah. Nicole, it’s Andrew, and good morning. Yes. I mean, obviously, as I indicated in my remarks, we do expect that obviously raw material inflation is going to have some impact later this year through the remainder of the year. We're pricing for that. We do not see at this stage an issue with that pricing, so we're all comfortable -- what increases we’re putting through are not going to have an impact. As you always know, Caterpillar is normally the price leader, and that helps us in the environment. We put through very modest price increases at the beginning of the year, so that did enable us to have a little bit more scope to put forward the price increases for now.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Steve Fisher from UBS. Your line is open.
Steve Fisher:
Thanks. Good morning. I wanted to just ask you a little bit more about the mix in construction and how that will affect margins. It sounds like you're anticipating a little bit of a shift from residential to perhaps commercial and heavier applications, and maybe there could be a bit of a rotation from Asia to North America. Is that how you're seeing it? And maybe about the timing of that shift and sort of what you're counting on to help mitigate the price cost dynamics from mix over the course of the year. Thank you.
Jim Umpleby:
Good morning, Steven. So, I don't believe we talked really about a shift from one to the other. What we talked about is the fact that the residential is quite strong, and we see some improvement in heavy construction starting to happen. Asia, there's a normal selling season that occurs in China associated with Chinese New Year. So, I wouldn't talk about it really as a rotation. I would just talk about it as, in some ways normal seasonal patterns, but in other ways, again an improvement in that heavy construction which has been quite depressed. So, we're starting to see some improvement there. So, I'd characterize it that way as opposed to a rotation.
Andrew Bonfield:
Yeah. And I think, also, Steve, as we always look out, I mean, we tend to look at margins and managing them over many quarters rather than just individual quarters. So obviously, while there may be mixed impacts from quarter-to-quarter, pricing impacts from things like geo mix and so forth, obviously there are other things that go the other way. So, we're always looking at the overall margin structure and making sure we manage that appropriately.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Adam Uhlman from Cleveland Research. Your line is open.
Adam Uhlman:
Hey, guys. Good morning.
Jim Umpleby:
Good morning.
Adam Uhlman:
Wondering -- I was wondering if we could expand on the dealer inventory positions right now, and if you could share your thoughts about how you're thinking about that for the rest of the year, because I think you indicated that you thought that it would be stable until the second quarter. At the same time, dealer inventory is at the low end of year range. And I think you indicated that you are at normal availability for the majority of your products. So, I guess why would dealers not build up more to get to kind of the average level of your targeted ranges? Thanks.
Jim Umpleby:
Well, Adam, thanks for your question, and I always have to remind you, of course, dealers are independent businesses, and they control their own inventory. What we're really focused on is meeting end user demand, and we talked about the strength in STUs [ph] and the improving situation in a number of markets that we serve. We talked a bit about some of the supply chain challenges, but our laser focus will be on ensuring that -- doing our very best to meet that end user demand. And all we're saying again, dealers are independent businesses. All we're trying to predict here at this point is that we don't anticipate as we sit here today a significant increase in dealer inventory in 2021. So, we're producing closer to demand, and of course dealer inventory will again be dependent on a whole wide variety of factors.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Stephen Volkmann from Jefferies. Your line is open.
Steve Volkmann:
Great. Good morning, everybody. I had a mix question as well, but in Resource, some of the channel checks seem to suggest that we're seeing stronger order activity for machines relative to parts, which is a little bit counterintuitive from this part of the cycle. I'm just curious if you're seeing that as well, and why do you think it might be?
Jim Umpleby:
Well, I think maybe what we're seeing is just an improvement in OE. Again, as we mentioned earlier in the call, we're starting to see some improvement in the heavy construction part of RI off a relatively low base, but we're also seeing an upturn in mining orders. That is gradual, but as you see that, that certainly could have an impact on mix.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Chad Dillard from Bernstein. Your line is open.
Chad Dillard:
Hi. Good morning, guys.
Jim Umpleby:
Good morning, Chad.
Andrew Bonfield:
Good morning, Chad.
Chad Dillard:
Just had a question on price comps and Op margins, wanted to just clarify a couple of things. So, first of all, with the price cost and assuming commodities stay where they are, do you foresee the price cost balance at least being neutralizing this year or will it probably take into like 2022 for that to materialize? And then, just on operating margins, am I right in assuming that Op margin is going to be the highest in 1Q and drifting down through the rest of the year?
Jim Umpleby:
Yeah. So, first of all, on the sort of price cost, what we’re expecting is -- for the -- overall for the full year to be in about balance. That's based on plans today and forecast today. Obviously, one of the things we’re pointing out is supply chain risks are out there, which do mean that they include raw material risks, which may impact pricing as we go forward, particularly on the cost side as we go through the balance of the year. So, that’s one of the things we’ll keep an eye on. Obviously, what we talked about in -- where we -- the only thing we're really saying about operating margins at this stage is that they will be within the Investor Day target range. And then, obviously, in the first -- from Q1 to Q2, we do expect that obviously operating margins will moderate slightly in Q2, mostly due to the factors I spoke about earlier, absorption rates being one of them, but also obviously the timing of price costs as well as that comes through.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Joel Tiss from BMO. Your line is open.
Joel Tiss:
Hey, guys. How it going? Nice quarter, good free cash flow, unbelievable. I wonder if you could just give us a little sort of your editorial between customer commentary and your unique position in this market, like how durable do you feel like the customer commentary like the recovery is going to be for 2022, 2023. I'm not asking for forecast, just sort of your color from all the different inputs you guys get.
Jim Umpleby:
Okay. Joel, you asked the most difficult question of the morning so far. So, certainly, we've talked about -- maybe the way to do this is talk about various markets. We talked about mining, and we've talked about the fact that we expect that gradual increase to continue. We have no reasons to think that it will stop, but again it’s very difficult for us to try to judge out what's going to happen two or three years. And when we put our strategy together in 2017, one of things we really focused on is performing better at all points in the cycle. We talked about having 300 basis points to 600 basis points better on operating margin regardless of where we're in that cycle compared to the historical past, which we defined as 2010 and 2016 and also producing $1 billion to $2 billion of incremental ME&T free cash flow at all points in the cycle. So, that's what we're really focused on. So, again, as we sit here today, we are optimistic about what we see. The things are improving in some markets that have been depressed. We've talked about the strength in mining, but again it's just very difficult to try to judge what will happen two or three years out. There are so many factors that could impact it.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of David Raso from Evercore ISI. Your line is open.
David Raso:
Hi. Thank you. My question was the dealer inventory. You noted you ended 2020 at the lower end of the normal range of months of sales, and if we're not going to see a restock this year of inventory while retail sales will grow, it does suggest the month of inventory relative to sales is going to be even lower at the end of the year, and obviously that sets up a very positive 2022 for your machine production even if retail sales were just flat. So, I was hoping if you can just give us some sense of magnitude where your scenario plays out on how far below normal would you expect dealer inventory to be at the end of the year?
Andrew Bonfield:
Yeah. David, as we’ve tried to indicate, we're not expecting this year is a significant increase in dealer inventory. That doesn’t mean that there won’t be any. So that actually puts obviously, as you quite rightly point out, if the demand signal continues to improve, obviously dealers would normally want to hold more inventory. What we are focused on is making sure we can meet demand in the current year and end user demand. And given some of the, obviously, challenges and risks that are out there, that is really our focus rather than concentrating on what we think actually year-end inventory will be. Obviously, we'll see how that pans out for the remainder of the year and see how dealers are thinking about 2022 as we get to the end of the year at this stage.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Jerry Revich from Goldman Sachs. Your line is open.
Jerry Revich:
Yes. Hi. Good morning, everyone.
Jim Umpleby:
Good morning, Jerry.
Jerry Revich:
One of the points from your customers on the mining side is, they are also setting their long-term CO2 reduction targets, and I am just wondering if you can talk about the opportunities that they have with your products to reduce their CO2 levels, and if you care to comment on when hydrogen and mining trucks is feasible in your view within that equation? Thanks.
Jim Umpleby:
Thanks, Jerry. And certainly, we are working with our customers in mining and in other areas of our business as well to help them achieve their climate-related objectives. It’s a bit early to make any kind of announcements here this morning, but certainly we are in discussions with our mining customers, and we will work to help them meet their objectives.
Jennifer Driscoll:
Okay. With that, we will turn it back to Jim to make his closing remarks.
Jim Umpleby:
All right. Well, again, I appreciate everyone joining us this morning. Couldn’t be more proud of the team and how they performed in the first quarter, a lot of positive signals. We talked about some challenges we have, but we are managing our way through those. We appreciate everyone’s attention this morning. Thank you.
Jennifer Driscoll:
Thank you, Jim. Thanks, Andrew, and everybody who joined us on the call today. We appreciate your time with us. A replay of our call will be available online later this morning. We will post the transcript on our Investor Relations website later today. Our first quarter results video with our CFO and an SEC filing with our sales to users data are already posted there as our updated slides and the new Caterpillar 2020 Data Book that I mentioned earlier. To find the Diversity & Inclusion Report that Jim referenced, click on caterpillar.com, then Careers, then Diversity & Inclusion. If you have any questions, please reach out to Rob or me. You can reach Rob at [email protected]. I am at [email protected]. The Investor Relations general phone number is 309-675-4549. We hope you enjoy the rest of your day and have a nice weekend. And now, I will turn it back to Jason to conclude our call.
Operator:
That concludes today's conference call. Thank you everybody for joining. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by, and welcome to the Q4 2020 Caterpillar Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. [Operator Instructions] I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Jennifer Driscoll. Thank you. Please go ahead.
Jennifer Driscoll:
Thank you, Jason. Good morning, everyone. Welcome to Caterpillar's fourth quarter 2020 earnings call. Joining me this morning are Jim Umpleby, Chairman of the Board and CEO; Andrew Bonfield, Chief Financial Officer; Kyle Epley, Vice President of the Global Finance Services Division; and Rob Rengel, Senior IR Manager. During our call, we will be discussing the earnings news release that we issued earlier this morning. Our slides from today, the news release and the videos recap are all in the Investor section of caterpillar.com under Events & Presentations. The forward-looking statements we make today are subject to risks and uncertainties. We will also make assumptions that could cause our actual results to be different than the information we are sharing with you on this call. Please refer to our recent SEC filings and the forward-looking statements reminder in the news release for details on factors that individually or in aggregate could cause our actual results to vary materially from our forecast. Caterpillar has copyrighted this call. And we prohibit use of any portion of it without our prior written approval. Today, we are reporting profit per share of $1.42 for the quarter and $5.46 for the year. We are showing adjusted profit per share in addition to our U.S. GAAP results. Our adjusted profit per share of $2.12 for the fourth quarter excluded remeasurement losses of $0.63 per share, resulting from the settlement of pension and other post-retirement obligation. It also excluded restructuring expenses of $0.07 per share, which Andrew will discuss. For the full-year, adjusted profit per share of $6.56 excluded $0.55 per share, resulting from the settlements of pension and other post-retirement benefit obligations and $0.55 per share in restructuring expenses. We provide a GAAP reconciliation in the appendix to this morning's news release. You can also find information on dealer inventory, backlog, services revenues and full-year 2020 numbers in our slides. Now with that, let's flip to Slide 3 and turn the call over to our Chairman and CEO, Jim Umpleby. Jim?
Jim Umpleby:
Thank you, Jennifer, and thanks everyone for joining the call. I would like to start by thanking our global team for their resilience and performance during 2020, the year of unprecedented challenges. The Caterpillar team continue to provide the essential products and services that enabled our customers to support society during the pandemic. In this difficult environment, we leveraged our strong safety culture and had the best year on record for employee safety. Our employees’ generous contributions and volunteerism are also notable. We had a record level of support for worldwide relief efforts in 2020 through the Caterpillar Foundation. Before turning over the call to Andrew for a detailed review of our results, I plan to briefly cover the following topics this morning. I will share my perspectives on CAT’s fourth quarter results. I’ll then provide comments on our performance for the full-year followed by some high-level thoughts about 2021. I’ll close by highlighting several ways for advancing our strategy. Starting on Slide 4, I'll recap fourth quarter results versus a year ago. Sales and revenues of $11.2 billion decreased 15% about as we expected. Lower sales volume drove the decline reflecting lower end user demand and reductions in dealer inventory. Dealers decreased their inventories by $1.1 billion in the fourth quarter of 2020, roughly $400 million more than we expected. For the full-year, dealers reduced their inventories by $2.9 billion. This positions us well to produce closer to demand in 2021, which was our goal when we introduced our enhanced S&OP process. Fourth quarter sales to users declined by 10% versus the previous year. Sales to users for both construction and mining equipment were better than we expected. While fourth quarter 2020 operating margins declined year-on-year, they improved by 230 basis points versus the third quarter. At 12.3%, they were better than we expected, reflecting better operational performance. Restructuring expense was lower than we expected as was the effective tax rate. Profit per share in the fourth quarter was $1.42. Adjusted profit per share was $2.12. Regarding our full-year results on Slide 5, we said at the start of the pandemic, it would be challenging to achieve the operating margin target we communicated during our 2019 Investor Day due to the impact of COVID-19 on our operations and supply chain as well as our intent to continue investing in new products and services to drive long-term profitable growth. So we're pleased that our final operating margin for 2020 was within our targeted range. We finished 2020 with sales and revenues of $41.7 billion and adjusted operating profit margin of 11.8%. Our ME&T free cash flow for the full-year was $3.1 billion. While we did not achieve our target for ME&T free cash flow of $4 billion to $8 billion, our free cash flow performance improved as the year progressed. Our decision to hold higher Caterpillar inventory to mitigate potential supply chain disruptions and to position ourselves for changes in market demand also impacted our free cash flow generation in 2020, as Andrew will discuss shortly. We remain focused on returning substantially all ME&T free cash to shareholders through the cycles and we returned $3.4 billion, or 110% of our free cash flow through dividends and share repurchases in 2020. Turning to Slide 6, I'll provide some comments on our end markets. Market conditions remain fluid due to the pandemic. However, I'll provide some thoughts based on what we see today. In Construction Industries, we see construction in North America benefiting from increased residential demand. We expect a strong selling season in China, including demand for our new GX excavator line. We expect continued recovery in the rest of Asia-Pacific. The current shutdown in some regions of EAME may constrain construction activity in Europe in the short-term. However, we expect improved market conditions due to favorable expansionary policies as well as benefits from higher commodity prices in Africa, the Middle East and Eurasia. In Latin America, we see Brazil's construction sector supportive of machine demand, while weakness outside Brazil is expected to continue at least in the short-term. Turning to Resource Industries. The improvement in mining fundamentals is expected to continue. We anticipate most mined sites to continue operating with limited disruptions and high levels of truck activity. In addition, metal prices are supportive of reinvestment and quoting activity continues to be robust. The number of parked trucks continues to decline. We continue to see strong interest and autonomy. Heavy construction and quarry and aggregate markets remain uncertain. The U.S. Infrastructure Bill would likely have a positive impact on these end markets. Moving to Energy & Transportation, we expect typical seasonality. Although we are encouraged by recent moves in oil prices, we expect oil and gas will continue to reflect conditions in that market. We expect some improvement in power generation supported by data center activity. We expect growth in industrial across all applications and transportation should grow due to services and higher international rail activity later in the year. Overall, we expect our sales in 2021 to be stronger due to the lack of a dealer inventory reduction and improving market conditions as I've described. We also expect services revenues to increase during the year. Given the continuing uncertainty, we're not providing earnings guidance at this time. Andrew will provide several assumptions for the first quarter in a moment, but we expect the first quarter to benefit from stronger year-over-year sales to users and dealer restocking. We also expect modestly higher margins in the first quarter of 2021 compared to the fourth quarter of 2020. You may recall that during our third quarter earnings call, I said that I felt better today than I did a quarter ago and the same is true today for the reasons I explained earlier concerning our markets. In addition, we're executing well against our strategy for long-term profitable growth. We expect to achieve our Investor Day operating margin targets in 2021 despite the impact of reinstating short-term incentive compensation. We also expect to meet our Investor Day free cash flow target this year. Given our intention to return substantially all of our ME&T free cash flow to shareholders as well as our desire to be in the market on a regular basis, we expect to revisit our current pause in share repurchases later this year. We have paid higher annual dividends to shareholders for 27 consecutive years and we're proud of our status as a dividend aristocrat. As I mentioned on our last earnings call, all decisions concerning the dividend are made by our Board of Directors, but we anticipate recommending an increase in the current year. We signed an agreement last quarter to acquire Weir's Oil & Gas business. We see a strong fit between Weir and our current offerings. This strategic transaction enhances our ability to serve our existing customer base while adding services revenue opportunities. We anticipate the acquisition will close very soon. Turning to Slide 7, we remain committed to our strategy which we launched in 2017. We're focused on operational excellence and continue to invest in services and expanded offerings during the pandemic. An example of our continued investment in expanded offerings was our new GX line of excavators launched in November in China which has received a positive response from our customers. The GX series provides the durability, safety and services that customers expect plus 15% lower fuel consumption than the prior models. It also offers 25% lower maintenance cost. Our technology along with our engineering know-how and global dealer network has always played a pivotal role in making our customers more successful with Caterpillar. For the first time we displayed some of our technology at the consumer electronics show earlier this month. We featured CAT MineStar a suite of technology and solutions that powers our autonomous trucks. With CAT MineStar customers say their employees are safer, machines are more efficient and operations are more consistent and productive. Customers have realized productivity increases of up to 30% with zero reportable injuries. We believe our autonomous capabilities provide a competitive advantage in mining. We were recently awarded Research Funding from the U.S. Department of Energy for two development projects. The first project which is expected to launch in the first quarter of this year is a three-year program for a hydrogen fuel cell system for data center power. The second project is expected to launch in mid-2021 and is a three-year program related to a flexible natural gas and hydrogen combined heat and power system. Caterpillar announced 2020 sustainability goals in 2006 and we're proud of our progress. By 2019 we’d reduced our green house gas emissions by 54% from our 2006 baseline exceeding our goal of 50%. And more than 35% of our electrical energy was obtained from renewables or alternative sources exceeding our 2020 goal of 20%. We'll disclose our final 2020 goal attainment in May when we also plan to disclose our new sustainability goals for the next horizon. I'll also comment on services which is an important element of our strategy. As you know we have a target of doubling our services revenue from 2012 to 2026. Our annual services revenue declined 13% to $16 billion in 2020 versus the prior year. As we expected, services were less cyclical than original equipment and rose as a percentage of sales representing 41% of ME&T sales in 2020. Year-over-year services declines reflected the reduction in machine hours related to the pandemic and customer decisions to delay planned maintenance and rebuilds as they sought to conserve cash. However, we did see an increase in customer value agreements both in the number in the average [like] with over 1 million connected assets we feel we have critical mass from our connectivity perspective which will leverage to increase services sales over time. In the coming year we expect to return to growth in services, we did see positive momentum from the third to the fourth quarter of 2020. All three segments have detailed plans to increase services by making our customers more successful. In summary, we continue executing our strategy, improving operational excellence and investing in expanded offerings and services to help our customers succeed. We continue to maintain a strong balance sheet and intend to deliver higher margins and free cash flow through the cycles as outlined during our 2019 Investor Day. We're grateful for our team's accomplishments in 2020 including their high level of engagement. We have a great team and will emerge from the pandemic as an even stronger company well-positioned for long-term profitable growth. With that I'll turn it over to Andrew.
Andrew Bonfield:
Thank you Jim and good morning everyone. I'll begin by walking you through the fourth quarter results including sales to users, changes in dealer inventory and segment performance. Then I'll comment on the balance sheet before finishing with our key assumptions for the first quarter of 2021. Starting with the fourth quarter on Slide 8, versus last year sales and revenues declined by 15% to $11.2 billion. Operating profit decreased by 25% to $1.4 billion. Good cost control in the quarter partly offset the impact of lower volume. Fourth quarter 2020 profit per share was $1.42. That include pre-tax remeasurement losses of $438 million or $0.63 per share resulting from the settlements of pension and other post-retirement obligations. Last year's profit per share for the fourth quarter was $1.97. Fourth quarter 2020 adjusted profit per share was $2.12 compared to $2.71 last year. You will have seen from the release that the full year effective tax rate was approximately 28% excluding discrete items. This was lower than the 31% rate we'd anticipated and added $0.26 to profit per share. We also had a $0.05 benefit from discrete tax items in the quarter. Excluding restructuring expense adds another $0.07 per share. The balance of the outperformance reflected better than expected operating results which saw adjusted operating margins improved by 170 basis points versus the third quarter of 2020. Since 2019 we have only reported adjusted profit per share in the fourth quarter when we have mark to market impacts from our pension and other post retirement benefit plans, this change happened because restructuring expense had returned to base levels which was between $100 million and $200 million per annum. This was not considered material and did not warrant adjusting profit per share. However, restructuring expense has risen to $350 million this year as we took additional actions to address certain challenge products. We also expect restructuring expense in 2021 to be similar to or even greater than the 2020 total as we continue to take the necessary actions to improve our cost competitiveness. So we're now reporting adjusted profits per share excluding restructuring charges and we will report adjusted profit per share each quarter in the coming year to exclude restructuring. We've also adjusted the prior numbers so they're on a comparable basis. Our restructuring efforts in 2020 make good progress and we expect $150 million benefit in 2021 from these actions. As shown on Slide 9 overall sales and revenues finished fairly close to what we anticipated in October. A stronger end user demand was offset by further reductions in dealer inventory. The top line declined by $1.9 billion to $11.2 billion primarily due to lower volume and a larger year-on-year reduction in dealer inventory. As Jim mentioned sales users decreased by 10% for the fourth quarter. Sales users for construction industries declined by 1% versus the prior year, it was a mixed bag geographically as Asia-Pacific rose by 16% benefiting from stimulus spending in China. Latin America also improved up 11%. North America was down 8% a solid improvement from the third quarter trend. Resource industries which tends to be lumpy had a 3% decline for the quarter. Energy and transportation sales to users decreased by 25%. The largest driver of that decline was attributed to lower levels of activity in oil and gas. Between earning calls we've been reporting rolling three-month sales to users every month. Going forward we report to sales to users only once per quarter when we discuss earnings so we can put them in the proper context. Machine orders improved in the fourth quarter as dealers began preparing for the spring selling season and the Chinese New Year, machine orders accelerated by double digit percentage turn from the fourth, third quarter to the fourth in line with normal trends. Dealers decreased their inventories by 1.1 billion during the fourth quarter that compares with a decrease of $700 million in the fourth quarter of last year. Improving sales to users enabled dealers to reduce the inventory by about $400 million more than we had anticipated in October. Dealers reduced inventory over the course of 2020 by $2.9 billion. This change brought their inventory levels to the lower end of their normal range for months of sales. As you know dealers are independent businesses and make their own decisions on inventory. In the first quarter 2020, we finished the rollover of our new SNOP process which we believe promoted better alignment between us and our dealers through a volatile year. This dealer inventory reduction positions us well for 2021. Reported sales decreased versus the prior year in all three primary segments. Energy and transportation contributed the majority of the decrease in total sales declining by 19%. This segment had weakness in all four applications led by oil and gas and transportation. Sales and construction industries declined by 10% due to lower sales volume associated with the reduction in end-user demand and changes in dealer inventories. Sales from resource decreased by 9% due to low end user demand for equipment and aftermarket parts. I will now move to Slide 10, operating profit for the fourth quarter fell by 25% to $1.4 billion mostly due to volume declines. Similar to the trend we've seen throughout the year lower manufacturing costs and SG&A and R&D expense partially mitigated the decline in volume. We delivered an adjusted operating margin of 12.8%. restructuring expense for the quarter was flat at $58 million compared with $54 million in the fourth quarter of 2019. I'll discuss the individual segments results for the fourth quarter starting on Slide 11 with construction industries. For construction industries sales decreased by 10% to $4.5 billion. Volume declines resulted from changes in dealer inventories led by North America and lower end user demand. We also saw lower sales in China in part due to lower dealer inventories which included the impact of a later Chinese New Year in 2021. However, sales to users were better than expected and we're seeing momentum in residential construction although we're still seeing weakness in pipeline and road construction. The segment's fourth quarter profit decreased by 4% to $630 million driven by lower volume and higher warranty expense. That was partially offset by favorable cost absorption and lower SG&A and R&D expenses including the absence of short-term incentive compensation. Margins remained resilient rising 90 basis points versus 2019 to 14.0% versus the third quarter margins were down slightly. This was a smaller seasonal decline than we normally see reflecting the improvement in the top line quarter-over-quarter. As shown on Slide 12 resource industry sales decreased by 9% in the fourth quarter to $2.2 billion. We experience lower end user demand for equipment and aftermarket parts supporting heavy construction and quarry in aggregates and to a lesser extent in mining. As anticipated sales for resource industries improve compared with the third quarter. Despite lower sales in the fourth quarter profit increased to $273 million compared with $261 million in the fourth quarter of 2019. The segment's profit margin of 12.5% rose by 160 basis points compared to 2019 on strong cost controls. Variable labor and burden efficiencies as well as material costs were favorable despite the lower sales volume. SG&A and R&D expenses benefited from lower short-term incentive compensation and other cost reduction actions and benefits were realized from prior restructuring programs versus the third quarter the operating improved by 330 basis points mainly reflecting the higher volume. Turning to side 13, fourth quarter sales of energy and transportation declined by 19% to $4.8 billion. The decline included a 29% sales decrease in oil and gas mainly due to lower demand in North America for reciprocating engines using gas compression and well servicing. Sales were also lower for turbines and turbine related services. Power generation sales decreased by 9%. This decline was primarily due to lower sales volume in small reciprocating engines, turbines and turbine related services and engine off the market parts. Transportation and industrial sales decreased by 28% and 19% respectively. Transportation declines reflected lower locomotive deliveries and related service revenues primarily in North America as well as lower sales of Marine. Profit for the segment decreased by 41% to $687 million due to lower sales volume. That was partially offset by lower SG&A, R&D and period manufacturing costs. The segment’s operating margin decline to 14.3% of 530 basis point decrease in comparison to a record quarter a year ago versus the third quarter the operating margin improvement was 250 basis points reflecting the high volume and favorable mix, partially offset by the timing of product development expenses which we mentioned in the third quarter call. Moving to Slide 14 to wrap up the segment commentary, financial products revenue decreased by $103 million or 12% to $743 million. The decline was due to low average financing rates across all regions and lower average earning assets in North America. The later affected lower purchase receivables which resulted from volume declines. Segment profit of $195 million declined by 7% year-over-year, mostly reflecting high provision for credit losses and lower earning assets. While user prices were flat to up in construction equipment we also had an unfavorable impact from return to reprocessed marine and mining products. Our customers remain in good financial condition. Credit applications continue to rebound in the quarter up 6% compared to the third quarter and up 15% compared to a year ago. CAT financial supported customers during the year with a streamlined process for loan modifications, but modification activity declined significantly and request for second modifications remain very limited. Past dues were 3.49% up 35% year-over-year, but an improvement of 32 basis points from the third quarter. As has been the case, CAT financial will continue to work closely with customers as they manage the impacts of COVID-19 on their business and cash flow but we are pleased to see that our customers remain in good financial health. Now on Slide 15, free cash flow from machinery, energy, and transportation was about $1.7 billion in the quarter, a decrease of about $200 million versus the fourth quarter of 2019. The decrease reflected changes in Caterpillar inventory as other inventories remain stable in the fourth quarter 2020 compared to decrease in 2019. As we mentioned previously, we continue to hold higher Caterpillar inventory primarily in components and other work in process to ensure that any potential disruptions to supply do not affect our customers and to make sure we are able to respond quickly to improve demand. However, free cash flow from ME&T did increase by $800 million versus the third quarter of this year. The sequential improvement was driven largely due to the higher profit and favorable working capital. We generated $3.1 billion of ME&T free cash flow in 2020. Although this was below our investor day range of $4 billion to $8 billion we expect to return to our Investor Day cash targets in 2021. We ended the fourth quarter with $9.4 billion in enterprise cash and maintained a strong liquidity position. You'll recall that we issued $2 billion in debt last year partly to increase liquidity and partly anticipation of $1.4 billion in scheduled maturities this year. Our credit ratings remain strong. We’ve recently declared our normal quarterly dividend of $1.03 per share which translates around $560 million. As Jim has indicated we are proud of our status as a dividend aristocrats. All decisions concerning the dividend are made by our Board of Directors, but we anticipate recommending an increase in the current year. Last share including the quarterly dividend as well as share repurchases made early in the year we returned $3.4 billion to shareholders. Our intention on Investor Day was to return substantially all ME&T free cash flow to shareholders through the cycles and in 2020 we returned 110% of our ME&T free cash flow to shareholders. In fact, over the past three years on average we returned to 106% and we have reduce that quarterly average diluted share outstanding by about 10% since the first quarter of 2019. While share repurchases were close in April due to uncertainties associated with COVID-19 we aimed to be in the market on a regular basis. Given what we see in the business we expect to revisit the decision to pull the share repurchase program later this year. We also continue to maintain a strong balance sheet which we can use a compelling M&A opportunities such as our pending agreement to purchase the Weir Group's oil and gas business. Also not providing annual guidance we do have a huge source on the first quarter. Our summary of our key assumptions is shown on Slide 16. In the first quarter we expect stronger year-over-year sales to users to manage growth in construction industries. We anticipate ongoing strength in China and benefits from the pickup in residential construction in North America, although nonresidential remain subdued. We expect resource industries a lumpy business to begin the year a little lower with a similar year-over-year [true] trend to what we saw in Q4. Energy and transportation is also expected to have a negative start of the year, although the trends are expected to improve versus the sharp drops in sales to users reported in the third and fourth quarters of 2020. As a reminder our sales to users were only impacted margin in the first quarter of 2020, so we expect stronger [indiscernible] growth in the remainder of 2021. We expect a normal seasonal tailor inventory build in anticipation of the spring selling season. Note that the Chinese New Year is about three weeks later this year. So the inventory build for Asia-Pacific has shifted more to the first quarter 2021 rather than occurring in the fourth quarter as happened between 2019 and 2020. [indiscernible] to produce closer to the end user demand and we anticipated our dealers will remain within their normal range for months of sales and inventories. Again, we will benefit in 2021, from not having the headwind of the deal of inventory reductions that took place in 2020. With respect to operating margins we expect a sequential improvement in the first quarter versus the fourth even with the impact of about $225 million from the strolling short-term incentive compensation. On a year-over-year basis the benefit of high volumes will almost entirely offset the impact of short-term incentive compensation which means we expect operating margins to be about flats versus Q1, 2020. As Jim mentioned in his comments we do expect to deliver margins in the Investor Day range as the benefits of operating leverage and the restructuring cost actions I mentioned earlier will offset the impact of short-term incentive compensation and high expenses were deferred into 2021. Looking at margins by segment, in construction industries, stronger sales and leverage on high volumes are anticipated to drive the sequential margin expansion in the first quarter compared to the fourth quarter, despite the impact of short-term incentive compensation. Resource industries is also anticipated to have a higher margin sequentially on high sales and leverage along with favorable mix. However, from a margin perspective, energy and transportation is likely to have a weaker start to the year which is in line with typical seasonality. This excludes any impact from the Weir acquisition which we anticipate will close very soon, although we don't expected to be material to our full-year results. In addition, we assume the tax rate in the first quarter of about 26% to 28% consistent with what we project for the full year based on the current U.S. statutory tax rate. This is in line with the tax rate we have reported in 2020. We’d expect normal CapEx at a pace that would translate to about $1 billion to $1.2 billion for the year. So finally let's turn to Slide 17 and let me recap today's key points. We continue to execute our strategy for profitable growth. We are investing in services and expanded offerings while improving operational excellence. In the fourth quarter trends in sales to users improved compared to the third quarter, deal inventories declined and we improved adjusted operating margins relative to Q3. We expect to see improved margin sequentially and stronger volumes in the first quarter. We are grateful to employees for ensuring we provided the essential products and services that enable our customers to support a world in need and most importantly for doing so safely. With that I’ll hand it back to Jason to prepare for the Q&A session.
Jennifer Driscoll:
And as we do that, we will just say, to be clear, our goal for services is to double it from 2016 at $14 billion to 2026 to $28 billion. Thank you. Jason?
Operator:
Excellent. And at this point, we will open the call for Q&A. [Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from the line of Rob Wertheimer from Melius Research. Your line is open.
Rob Wertheimer:
Hi, good morning, and thanks for the overview of what you’re seeing in the end markets. Given that the decision not to reinstate the outlook and obviously, there is a lot of uncertainty. Could you talk about at least the key points of uncertainty to the upside and/or downside? I mean, where are you seeing where there may still be downside revenues, if there is some? Where are you seeing more upside risk versus 2020 levels? Just a little bit of characterization of why you made the decision and where the points of uncertainties are? Thank you.
Jim Umpleby:
You bet. Good morning, Rob. This is Jim. As we indicated in our prepared remarks, we do expect 2021 to be a better year than 2020 for us. We expect higher sales. But just given the uncertainty around the pandemic, the rollout of the vaccine, the resulting impact on the global economy, although we expect tit o be a better year. It's difficult for us to quantify how much better it will be just based on the pandemic. And we mentioned several bright spots whether we - continued strength in China, continued strength in residential activity in the United States, which drives our smaller construction business. We’re generally - continue to be bullish on mining still some concerns around heavy construction and quarry and ag, which impact Resource Industries. But again, it’s – it isn't so much a concern about downside as it is uncertainty as to how much better things will get this year.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Jerry Revich from Goldman Sachs. Your line is open.
Jerry Revich:
Hi, good morning, everyone.
Jennifer Driscoll:
Good morning, Jerry.
Jerry Revich:
I am wondering if you could talk about the first quarter margin outlook. It's nice to see the margin expansion plan sequentially despite the 2-point headwind from incentive compensation. So that's better cadence than normal seasonality. Can you just talk about how much of that is momentum in price cost improvements versus other drivers. We are pleasantly surprised by that part of the outlook.
Andrew Bonfield:
Yes. Thanks, Jerry. It's Andrew, and good morning. Yes, I mean, the big driver is really volume. As I said, the fact that we expect a more normal seasonable dealer buying pattern ahead of the spring selling season. And if you recall last year, we only had about $100 million of dealer inventory increase in Q1. That is a big factor, obviously, from a volume perspective. And given the operating leverage that we have in the business, that enables us to more than offset the step increase. We continue to monitor and control costs. We are in an environment where everybody is obviously focused on making sure every dollar counts and that will continue as we go forward. That is something which will obviously continue until we start seeing stronger recoveries and obviously continue to make sure that we are investing in the business. As Jim said, we continue to invest in services. We continue to invest in new products that's really critical for our long-term growth.
Operator:
You are next question comes from the line of Ann Duignan from JPMorgan. Your line is open.
Ann Duignan:
Hi, good morning. As we contemplate our 2021 models, could you provide us more color in terms of your outlook by sub-segment in E&T? And in particular, you talked about oil and gas, but turbines - in particular, in turbine services and then the other sub-sectors? Thank you.
Jim Umpleby:
Well, good morning Ann. We expect starting with your question about solar, we expect solar to have a relatively flat year to 2020. We do believe their services will be up a bit again if there's still uncertainty out there. But our current view is that seller will be about flat year-to-year. We expect power generation to have a stronger year and a lot of that is driven by data center activity. We expect industrial engine activity to strengthen during the year. We do expect in rail to see continued low levels of sales of new locomotives in North America, but we do expect stronger activity internationally for sale of locomotives and also services as well. Marine, I would expect to remain at a relatively low level in the first quarter compared with the fourth quarter of 2020.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of David Raso from Evercore ISI. Your line is open.
David Raso:
Hi, good morning. A bigger picture question. I mean, many of the classic signs of CAT's prospects turning positive over there, right, the low inventory, the higher commodity prices. But when we think about the whole cycle, as you're well aware, some investors questions CAT's longer-term growth prospects due to part some people question the sustainability of the reflation trade, but really even more so they believe CAT's business portfolio is poorly positioned for a world evolving their clean energy and carbon-neutral goals. So, Jim, can you provide your thoughts on those two issues, particularly the second issue of the portfolio and how we should think of acquisitions maybe help changing that investor view? I mean, especially given your net debt to EBITDA and that's on a week 2020 EBITDA, is only 0.4. And if you can tie into that with the percentage of aftermarket revenues, you gave this morning it does suggest your aftermarket revenues have to grow at a 9.8% CAGR from 2020 to 2026 to meet your revenue goal of $28 billion in 2026 for aftermarket. So if you can talk to those issues would be helpful as people think about the whole cycle?
Jim Umpleby:
Good morning, David. Always good to hear from you. Starting with a question about our portfolio and the way we're positioned. I feel quite good about the way we're positioned. You stop and think about the potential impact on our Resource Industries business over time, particularly in mining as the energy transition occurs, thinking about the commodities that will be required both in terms of investments and infrastructure, electric vehicles. Again, I believe we're very well positioned in our eye to take advantage of that. We also, as when you asked the question last quarter, I talked about the fact that we do intend to continue to support our customers both during and after the transition. And so I believe we're well-positioned to do that. So, again, we continue to work closely with our customers. We continue to invest in new products. Again, last quarter when you asked the question, we talked about some of the things that we're doing in terms of investments with new products and we have an all-electric switch locomotive. We've done things to help make our oil and gas customers more sustainable whether it be an engine that allows them to substitute up to 85% natural gas, substituting natural gas for diesel fuel for well servicing. We're doing things in terms of allowing oil and gas customers to reduce flaring. So again, a whole variety of things that we're doing and we're investing in to support our customers both during and after the energy transition. In terms of your question about services. Certainly, our goal is an ambitious goal and we said that when we introduced that goal and we certainly recognize that it is ambitious, but we're very focused on this as a business. We've been making investments over the last few years in our digital capabilities and our - many of our processes and our models and we're going to work hard to leverage those connected assets and those investments that we've made to grow services going forward. And we think that represents just an excellent opportunity for future profitable growth over the next few years.
Jennifer Driscoll:
And as a reminder if we could have one question per analyst that'd be terrific.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Jamie Cook from Credit Suisse. Your line is open.
Jamie Cook:
Hi, good morning. Jim or Andrew I guess the question for you is on the margin side. You look at resource and construction. Your margins improved year-on-year despite sales declines. You look at your margins for the total year. They are about 11% which is above the low end of your targeted range and taking into account you said you didn't think you'd be able to hit your targeted range when COVID first started. So clearly it looks like the margin performance of the business is doing better than you originally anticipated. So is there any way you can help us understand what's happening there and I'm just trying to figure out if the margin targets that you laid out at the analyst day if there's some upside there, if there's a reason structurally why margins are performing better in particular given some of the headwinds that we face this year with COVID, dealer inventory, etc. Thank you.
Jim Umpleby:
Well Jamie thanks for your question and good morning and certainly we are very proud of our team and the fact that we were able to achieve our investor day targets this year despite the fact that we continue to invest in services and expanded offerings and new products and positioning ourselves for long-term profitable growth. As we said in investor day our measure of profitable growth is absolute OPEC dollars and we believe that by growing absolute OPEC dollars that will drive long-term TSR. So certainly we're always looking across the business to find ways to improve our competitiveness, to improve our footprint, to improve cost of our back office operations. So that's a never-ending journey that we're on but we really are growing, attempting to grow long-term absolute OPEC dollars as opposed to just squeezing higher margins out. Again margins will fluctuate over time but again keep in mind two things one is we we're very focused on meeting those investor day targets in terms of margins and free cash flow and we're also very focused on growing absolute OPEC dollars to grow long-term TSR.
Operator:
And your next question comes from the line of Ross Gilardi from Bank of America. Your line is open.
Ross Gilardi:
Hey, thanks. Good morning guys.
Jim Umpleby:
Good morning.
Andrew Bonfield:
Good morning Ross.
Ross Gilardi:
Jim yes, I was just wondering if you could just discuss the outlook for reinvestment in 2021 and the next several years. I mean you committed to the $4 billion to $8 billion free cash through the cycle. It sounds like you're planning to raise a dividend and resume the buyback but CAT spent about 60% of depreciation on CapEx and in 2020 you spent the depreciation by a pretty wide measure. I think every year going back to 2013 R&D spend is down about $500 million from where it was at the trough of the last cycle. Should we be expecting some catch-up years on CapEx and R&D in the next several years and if not why not and just with that what are you baking in for R&D and CapEx in 2021?
Jim Umpleby:
Yes. We are not going to disclose a discrete number for R&D and CapEx in 2021 but just to make some general comments here we certainly are very committed to continue to invest in our products. One of the things that did impact R&D in 2020 was the lack of stip so keep that in mind as well. That is part of the calculation but we're very committed and we talked about the GX product line. We talked about some of the other investments that we're making in new products and that's something that we will continue to do. We talked about the fact that we recognize there is an energy transition occurring and we are investing in and will continue to invest in new technologies that will allow us to support our customers moving forward. In terms of CapEx one of the things we worked very hard on is lean operations to get more production out of existing bricks and mortar. So rather than continue to build factories we may not need at certain points in the cycle we're really focused on manufacturing flexibility, working across that value chain, reducing lead times, becoming more lean to try to meet those fluctuations in demand in a cost-effective manner.
Andrew Bonfield:
Yes. Most just said I think we guided my notes between $1 billion and $1.2 billion for CapEx this year 2021 which is our more normal level. Obviously 2020 was disrupted a little bit as well because obviously the impact of COVID some of the things projects would normally have happened have been deferred and delayed.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Timothy Thein from Citigroup. Your line is open.
Timothy Thein:
Great. Thank you. Good morning.
Jim Umpleby:
Good morning.
Timothy Thein:
Maybe Jim if you could go, good morning just go back to mining if we could in terms of you alluded to the order activity and just the healthy level of discussions; maybe just a little bit more in terms of what Denise and team are hearing is as you look at mining markets around the globe in terms of how we're thinking about the how the recovery and the interplay between whole goods versus parts. So maybe again just a little bit more color in terms of your expectations for the mining piece with [RI] thank you.
Jim Umpleby:
Certainly. As I mentioned we mean we continue to be optimistic about our mining business that quotation activity is strong. Certainly, base metal markets support additional activity, number of parked mining trucks has declined and I will keep in mind of course RI includes heavy construction of quarry and aggs. So there is some uncertainty there and that business is relatively subdued that could be help stimulus programs but it this point that is relatively depressed but again in mining we are quite bullish. So again as we look at our autonomous solution we believe we have a competitive advantage there and we expect strong activity in new equipment. We expect strong activity in parts. Keep in mind of course our business is quite lumpy both in RI and ENT we will see the fluctuations quarter-to-quarter but again the medium and long term trend were quite bullish on and again I mentioned the energy transition we are very well-positioned to take advantage of that and resource industries.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Nicole DeBlase from Deutsche Bank. Your line is open.
Nicole DeBlase:
Yes. Thanks. Good morning guys.
Jim Umpleby:
Good morning Nicole.
Andrew Bonfield:
Good morning Nicole.
Nicole DeBlase:
So I just wanted to ask about the safety stock even though within maybe resources while if there is any there. How do you feel about that compared to what's going on in the market with respect to raw materials, difficulty getting any supplies, can you characterize maybe what you are seeing with respect to COVID and how much of a concern that is as presumably demand really starts to ramp throughout 2021?
Jim Umpleby:
Thank you. As I mentioned we did make a conscious decision. We talk with this in previous earnings calls that we would hold some additional inventory to mitigate the potential disruptions on our supply chain of COVID just given the uncertainty of the trajectory of the pandemic and our decision was not to hold finished goods inventory but to hold that inventory in a lean way in components and further up the value chain. So at this point we haven't seen major issues in terms of supply disruptions. So far so good on that count, so based on everything we see today we are confident in our ability to meet demand going forward.
Operator:
Your next question comes from a line of Mircea Dobre from Baird. Your line is open.
Mircea Dobre:
Thank you. Good morning everyone.
Jim Umpleby:
Good morning Mircea.
Mircea Dobre:
I wanted to ask a question around restructuring unit ‘21 you are excluding now from earnings. It would imply to me that you're expecting restructuring activity to potentially pick up may be quite a bit and I guess I am wondering what's left to do here? What are some of the portions of the business that you believe more tweaking and I am wondering if you've got portions where your outright trying to reduce capacity or take-out footprint. Maybe that goes back to David's question on selling your businesses that maybe have more structural concerns long-term?
Jim Umpleby:
Yes. So again as I mentioned earlier, we are continually looking for ways to improve our competitiveness and reduce our cost structure. That means evaluating not just our capacity but also our footprint and where we are. We previously publicly announced the decision to close [indiscernible] operations to get to move closer to our customers and also to reduce cost. So again, in my view that needs to be something that we continually do and it isn't just our factories and brick-and-mortar is also looking at our back office operations as well. And again, always finding ways to improve our cost structure and be more competitive. So really the restructuring that we put in again is more reflective of our continuous journey to improve our competitiveness.
Andrew Bonfield:
And then just from the accounting perspective to refer to the fact why we excluding it from adjusted profit per share as I said in my remarks let me get to a base level which is between $100 million and $200 million. It is effectively a level with no material and therefore it doesn't warrant us adjusting profit per share for that given the size and spend the magnitude of the spend $354 million and as we say we expect a similar level maybe slightly higher in 2021 that does require us to be consistent with where we have been in historic periods. And therefore to exclude it. I know it's, it closes you guys some challenge because you have to go back and restate your models but unfortunately it is one of those things which from the disclosure perspective is good practice for us to do. As regards what spend is obviously some of the spend will be ongoing programs as Jim mentioned but some of those programs actually do have it on multiyear program. They are not just a single year and so some of that spend does recur. So obviously we are not doing a big restructuring program. We are not announcing anything which comes your question about on some of the backs the questions about more structural long-term concerns. This is just really about tweaking, making sure we're doing the right thing to drive our cost price.
Operator:
Your next question comes from a line of Noah Kaye from Oppenheimer. You line is open.
Noah Kaye:
Thanks. Jim back to mining and this is really I think pulling up on TES in your presentations there. As you see mining RFP activity coming back in customer engagement growing, can you talk about sort of growth trends and potential share gains for autonomous offering and then clearly with the Marble acquisition you could leverage that to go from a very linear mining ecosystem to move to more dynamic and predictable markets like construction and quarry and way, so can you can talk little bit about that dynamic as well? How you’re seeing that playing out in the new coding activity you are seeing to the extent to which that at the share gain opportunity for you?
Jim Umpleby:
Certainly. We do continue to see a strong pull for automation on autonomy economy by our mining customers and again we believe it delivers tremendous value. We have had customers say publicly that they are seeing productivity increases of 30% against their best man sites. Again it's got a safety component for them as well. That helps improve the utilization of their equipment which is so important and we do feel strongly that we have competitive advantage with our autonomous solution and generally it requires a certain size in terms of mine, in terms of number of trucks for the capital investment to make sense but we are continually working on it as well. So there is a lot of opportunity going forward in mining with autonomy and you make a very good point now we are starting to deploy some of those technologies. We've a lot of programs in work to deploy a lot of that technology whether it's autonomy, semi-autonomy, remote control many of those same kinds of technologies into construction industries and it is a one-size-fits-all if it happens over time, but again we do believe there's [indiscernible] ability of many of those technologies to our construction business over time and that something that we are working very hard on and again it’s part of our R&D plan.
Jennifer Driscoll:
And we have time for one more question please.
Operator:
Your final question comes from the line of Steve Volkmann from Jefferies. Your line is open.
Steve Volkmann:
Great. Thanks for fitting me in guys. My question is really about how to think about sort of working capital for 2021? Maybe it's Andrew question, but in the spirit of the S&OP that I think is changed a little bit how you manage all this. I'm just curious if we should expect normal working capital build with revenue increases or if there is anything different to think about there. Thank you.
Andrew Bonfield:
Yes, Steve thank you and one of the things obviously you would normally have expected in the year where there is a downturn to see a working capital inflows this year in 2020 obviously because of the decision we took around inventories to make sure we held a little bit of extra inventory to buffer against supply disruption and/or demanding changes we have, we will be in an situation in 2021 where we don't expect a big build of inventory so that helps our free cash flows which gives us confidence that will be out to deliver our free cash flow targets in 2021. The other thing just to remember on working capital and cash flow basis is obviously last year in 2020 we paid about $700 of short-term incentive compensation. We will not have that in 2021. So that will be again a strong boost to our cash position as we go through the year but the one thing I would say that to me, that has been really remarkable is to remind you again in year of significant turmoil where we have held sort of additional inventory we are still been able to generate free cash flow of $3.1 billion. This is a hugely cash generating company in one which I think sometimes investors do underappreciate.
Jennifer Driscoll:
Okay and we will turn it back to Jim for our closing remarks.
Jim Umpleby:
Well, thanks everyone for joining this morning. We greatly appreciate your questions. Caterpillar faced many challenges in 2020. We are very proud of how our team responded. We met the operating margin target we communicated during our 2019 Investor Day while importantly continuing to invest and expanded offerings and services to secure our long-term future and our team did this while having the best year on record for employee safety. And as I mentioned earlier we fully intend to emerge in a pandemic [indiscernible] company. Thank you again.
Jennifer Driscoll:
Thanks Jim. Thanks everybody who joined us today. We appreciate your time at that. A replay of our call will be available online later this morning. We also post the transcript on our investor relations website later today. Fourth quarter results video with our CFO and SEC filing with our sales users data and our quarter highlights are already posted there. Click on investor.caterpillar.com and then click on financials to find those materials. If you have any questions please reach out to Rob or me. You can reach Rob at [email protected]. And I'm at [email protected] Investor Relations general phone number is 309-675-4549. We hope you enjoy the rest of your day and the weekend. And now I will turn it back to Jason to conclude our call.
Operator:
That concludes today's conference call. Thank you everyone for joining. Have a wonderful day. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by and welcome to the Q3 2020 Caterpillar Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen only mode. Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. [Operator Instructions] I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Jennifer Driscoll. Thank you. Please go ahead.
Jennifer Driscoll:
Thanks Jason. Good morning, everyone. And welcome to Caterpillar's third quarter 2020 earnings call. Today I am joined by Jim Umpleby, Chairman of the Board and CEO; Andrew Bonfield, Chief Financial Officer; Kyle Epley, Vice President of our Global Finance Services Division; and Rob Rengel, Senior IR Manager. On our call we are expanding our earnings news release and sales users, which we issued earlier this morning. Our slides from today and the news release are all in the Investor section of caterpillar.com under events and presentation. The forward-looking statements we make today are subject to risks and uncertainties [Tech Difficulty]. We will also make assumptions that could cause our actual results to be different than the information we are sharing with you on this call. Please refer to our recent SEC filings and the forward-looking statements reminder in the news release for details on factors that individually or combined could cause our actual results to vary materially from our forecast. Caterpillar has copyrighted this call. And we prohibit use of any portion of it without our prior written approval. This quarter included a $0.12 per share remeasurement loss resulting from the settlement of pension obligations. We provide non-GAAP reconciliation in the appendix to this morning’s news release. There is also backlog information and couple other things. So in a moment Andrew will update on our third quarter results and our financial position but first please turn to slide 3 as I hand you over to our Chairman and CEO, Jim Umpleby. Jim?
Jim Umpleby:
Thank you, Jennifer. Thanks everyone for joining the call. I'm proud of how our global team has performed in a challenging environment, providing the essential products and services that enable our customers to support a world in need. We continue to leverage our strong safety culture, remaining both safe and productive in this pandemic altered work environment. We remain committed to our strategy launched in 2017, which is based on operational excellence, expanded offerings and services. The operational excellence element of our strategy has served as well, resulting in disciplined management of structural costs. As a result, we went into the pandemic with a strong balance sheet, and it continued to invest in expanded offerings and services to make our customers more successful. We're introducing several new products and are enhancing our digital capabilities. Now I'll briefly cover third quarter results starting with slide 4. While sales, earnings and profit per share declined versus the prior year's quarter, our performance in the quarter was better than we expected. Third quarter sales and revenues of $9.9 billion decreased by 23%. Lower sales volume drove the decline primarily due to lower end user demand. In addition, dealers decreased inventory by $600 million this quarter, versus a decrease of $400 million in the third quarter of 2019. That was more of a decrease than we anticipated, with dealers having reduced their inventories by $1.8 billion year-to-date; we now estimate they will reduce their inventories by about $2.5 billion by year end. This morning we also reported three months sales to users, which decreased by 22% versus the previous year. This was similar to the second quarter's trend and about in line with our assumptions. Machine sales to users decreased by 20% driven by a 31% decline in North America. Asia Pacific overall was flat, reflecting higher demand from China offset by declines and other countries in the region. Energy and transportation sales to users decreased by 27% with declines primarily driven by oil and gas, and industrial applications. Profit per share in the third quarter of 2020 was $1.22 versus $2.66 in the third quarter of 2019. Turning to slide 5, we believe it's helpful to also compare the third quarter against the second as both periods were impacted by COVID-19. The third and second quarters of this year were roughly similar. Sales were only slightly lower in the third quarter compared to the second down about $100 million or 1%. Sales are typically lower seasonally in the third quarter versus the second. Sales were essentially flat across our three main segments. While sales came in largely in line with our expectations, our operating margin performance was better than we anticipated. Third quarter margins were 10%, 220 basis point improvement from the 7.8% we reported in the second quarter. The margin improvement came from a combination of cost control, favorable geographic mix, and better factory efficiencies than we anticipated. Looking at sequential margins for the segments; construction industries margins led the way with favorable price due to less of an impact from geographic mix and operating efficiencies. The higher margins in resource industries reflected manufacturing costs that more than offset on favorable price. Energy and transportation margins declined relative to the second quarter. E &T had unfavorable mix, including reduced sales from oil and gas, mainly and solar turbines. As you know, Solar's business tends to be lumpy. In addition, margins, and E&T were impacted by some non recurring items. Next, I'll comment on the third quarter 2020 sales to users data released today versus the data from the second quarter of this year. The 20% decline in the third quarter of 2020 machine sales was a three percentage point improvement over the decline in the second quarter of 2020. That was about what we expected. For construction industries, most regions reported less of a decline in year-over-year sales to users in the third quarter when compared to the second quarter year-over-year performance. Stronger residential construction benefited our construction industry segment. Asia Pacific remained positive, driven by continued strong demand in China. Sales to users and resource industries declined sequentially; as North America remained low, particularly in heavy construction, quarry in aggregates while other regions continued to see lumpiness across the segment. Energy and transportation sales to users declined by 27% during the third quarter of 2020, compared with an 18% decrease reported in this year second quarter. As expected, reduced demand in oil and gas contributed to the decline. Power generation continued to fluctuate while industrial remained weak. Transportation improved, as reported declines moderated in the third quarter versus the second quarter of 2020. Turning to slide 6, as we look ahead for the end markets, we serve at Caterpillar much still depends on the pandemic and its impact on the global economy. While the situation remains fluid. Overall, we are cautiously optimistic. We continue to work closely with our suppliers to be well positioned to meet changes in market demand. We're maintaining good product availability levels for the vast majority of our products. Availability of our aftermarket parts is solid as well. I'll share some thoughts on demand trends for the fourth quarter in each of our markets based on what we see today. Overall, we expect sales and end user demand to improve in the fourth quarter compared to the third. This follows our typical seasonal trends. End user demand should improve going into next year as well. For construction industries, we expect stronger sales and end user demand in the fourth quarter compared to the third quarter. The percentage reduction in year-over-year sales to users should also improve in the fourth quarter compared to what we saw in the third. Recovery in North America provides a boost as low interest rates homebuilder confidence and growth in housing starts support demand for our smaller machines, which are built by our building construction products division. In China, we expect our construction business to continue to be strong due to government spending on infrastructure and building activity. Based on what we see today, the strength in China should continue going into next year. We anticipate non residential construction will remain subdued and North America in the fourth quarter, as well machine sales for oil and gas related activity. Overall, based on what we see today, we expect end markets for construction industries to continue to improve. As I mentioned earlier, the situation remains fluid. Turning to Resource Industries, we expect higher sales in the fourth quarter compared to the third, with sales to users improving versus the third quarter as well although down slightly year-over-year, in a business that tends to be lumpy. We're encouraged by continued solid quoting activity in mining in orders picked up in the third quarter compared to the second. We have some large tenders pending for deliveries that will be spread over the next few years. The tender activity is particularly strong in large mining trucks in large tractors. Demand for base metal commodities is expected to remain strong. Aftermarket parts sales are expected to improve as machine utilization overall is high. Many miners have deferred rebuilds and some maintenance in the next year. Mining CapEx is expected to increase over the next 12 months. Based on everything we're seeing, we remain optimistic about improving conditions in mining. We expect heavy construction and quarry and aggregates and resource industries to remain weak in the near term, particularly in North America. In addition, our autonomous mining trucks continue to gain traction with customers continuing to report improvements and efficiencies and safety on autonomous mining sites. We have over 340 autonomous trucks running now and expect to approach 400 by year end. Sales and energy and transportation are typically higher in the fourth quarter, including stronger sales to users compared to the third quarter. We expect that trend to continue this year. We see continued challenges for reciprocating engines in North American oil and gas during the fourth quarter. However, we are encouraged by recent comments made by industry participants in well servicing. For power generation, we expect to increase datacenter activity to create higher demand in reciprocating engines. As is typical solar should have its best sales quarter of the year in the fourth quarter. However, solar sales will likely be lower than in previous years as we are seeing some customers delay maintenance in the next year, which will also impact E&T's mix in the fourth quarter. In addition in the fourth quarter, we expect that timing of product development investments to have a negative margin impact on E&T. Meanwhile, demand for industrial engines and transportation is expected to show some improvement, but continue to reflect the dynamics in the markets they serve. Before moving off energy and transportation, let me comment on the agreement we signed earlier this month to acquire Weir Oil & Gas business. We see a strong strategic fit between the Weir Oil & Gas and our current offerings in oil and gas. It comes with a strong services business and would expand our product portfolio to one of the broadest in the world service industry. Our goal is to make our customers more successful with us than with competitors. And upon closing, this acquisition would give us a more complete solution in this space. We view this as an opportunistic time to strengthen our lineup of oil and gas products and services. And importantly, we believe the transaction economics will prove attractive even if oil prices remain low. Andrew will share the details on the fourth quarter assumptions in a few moments. Overall versus a third quarter, we're looking for stronger volume performance, improved operating margins and additional dealer inventory reductions; we expect to be well positioned as we move into 2021. Turning to slide 7, we said at our 2019 Investor Day that we intend to return substantially all of our ME&T free cash flow to shareholders through the cycles. Year-to-date, we've returned $2.8 billion to shareholders via dividends and share repurchases. As we said last quarter, our share repurchase plan will remain suspended through calendar year end. In the third quarter, we returned about $560 million to shareholders through our quarterly dividend. We are proud of our aristocrat status, where for 27 consecutive years, including 2020; we've paid higher annual dividends to shareholders. The dividend remains a high priority through all economic cycles. All decisions concerning the dividend are made by our board of directors, but we anticipate increasing our dividend again next year. Before closing, let me mention two other important things. The retirements at year end of Billy Ainsworth, Group President of Energy and Transportation and Ramin Younessi, Group President of Construction Industries. We thank Billy and Ramin for their significant contributions to Caterpillar and wish them all the best in retirement. We also welcome Tony Fassino and Joe Creed to the executive office. I'd also like to mention that the Caterpillar team is proud to have been recently recognized by the Wall Street Journal as number 19 on its list of the most sustainably managed companies in the world. The new ranking assessed more than 5,500 publicly traded companies around the world. In summary, as we continue to execute our strategy for profitable growth, we're investing in services and expanded offerings to better serve our customers. We're improving operational excellence, which includes working more safely than ever, and making our cost structure more flexible and competitive. We'll be able to react quickly and are well positioned for changes in market demand. We will emerge in the pandemic is an even stronger company. Now, let me turn it over to Andrew.
Andrew Bonfield:
Thank you, Jim, and good morning, everyone. I'll start on slide 8 with a recap of our third quarter results. Then I will walk you through the segment results and free cash flow, touch on the fourth quarter outlook and finish with our cash and liquidity position. To summarize, sales and revenues declined by 23% to $9.9 billion. Operating profit decreased by 51% to $985 $5 million. Third quarter 2020 profit per share was $1 22. This includes your pre tax remeasurement losses of $77 million or $0.12 per share, resulting from the settlements of pension obligations. Adjusted profit per share was $1.34, and $93 million or $0.17 per share discrete tax benefit is included in both our profit per share and adjusted profit per share figures. Last year's profit per share for the third quarter was $2.66. Overall, sales and revenues finished fairly close to what we thought in July, with the operating margin being better than we anticipated, although this was partially offset by negative foreign exchange impacts and lower investment income. As shown on slide 9, the top line declined by $2.9 billion, of which $2.6 billion were due to lower volume. A $200 million year-on-year movement in dealer inventory also contributed to decrease. As Jim mentioned sales to users overall decreased by 22% for the quarter. Sales to users for construction industries declined by 15%. Within that number Asia Pacific was a bright spot. It rose 4% benefiting from stimulus spending in China, where the industry is actually up year-to-date. North America while down 27% improved from the second quarter trend. Resource Industries which does tend to be lumpy had some unfavorable timing, and a 31% year- over-year decline mainly due to weakness in North America and Latin America. Energy and Transportation sales to users decreased by 27%. This reflected lower levels of activity for reciprocating on the gas engines, particularly in North America. We also had unfavorable timing in our solar turbines business and lower sales to users in industrial applications. As you would expect both resource industries and energy transportation sales to users have been impacted more significantly this quarter, as these products tend to have a longer lead time between when the order is received and when delivery of the final product is made to the customer by the dealers. Dealers decrease inventory by $600 million this quarter. That compares to the decrease of $400 million in the third quarter of last year. The slight improvement in machine sales to user's quarter-over-quarter enabled dealers to reduce inventory more than we anticipated. Dealers have reduced inventory by $1.8 billion year-to-date. I'll comment on our expectations for fourth quarter movements in the dealer inventory in a few moments. Sales decreases versus the prior year were fairly consistent among the three primary segments. Sales declined in Construction Industries by 23%, also from Resource Industries and Energy and Transportation declined by 21% and 24% respectively. Looking at the geographic region, sales were most resilient in Asia Pacific driven by healthy demand in China. While sales in North America and Latin America are fairly challenged, the percentage of decline was less pronounced than we saw in the second quarter of 2020. This was driven by better relative performance in construction industries. Unfavorable price realization of $121 million was less of an issue than last quarter, and reflected many changes in geographic mix within construction industries and resource industries. Machine orders increased by double digits percent comparing to the third quarter versus the second quarter. This is one reason we believe that despite their destocking dealers are seemingly more confident about the future. We saw dealers become more positive about demand in construction industries. We also saw our solar turbines backlog increased slightly compared to the second quarter of 2020. Now on slide 10; operating profit for the third quarter fell by 51% to $985 million. Volume declines are the primary driver for the decrease; favorable short term incentive compensation helped partially offset that. Lower manufacturing costs also help mitigate the effects of lower volume. We delivered an operating margin of 10.0%, a 220 basis point improvement compared with a 7.8% operating margin in the second quarter of 2020. As I mentioned, this was better than we expected and primarily reflected good cost control, slightly more favorable geographic mix and better factory efficiency. Restructuring expense for the quarter was $112 million, compared with $24 million in the third quarter of 2019. We continue to make progress addressing certain challenge products as we're committed to doing so at the beginning of the year. This quarter, we completed the contemplation process related to closing the doormen Dorman facility in Germany. This facility manufactures a productivity class of hydraulic mining shovels. We are considering locations closer to our end customer and supply base. This will help us to improve our competitiveness in this market segment. Pretax profit was impacted by foreign exchange losses and lower investment income due to lower interest rates. And as I mentioned earlier, profit per share was $1.22 cents and adjusted profit per share was $1.34. Now I'll discuss the individual segments results for the third quarter beginning on slide 11. For Construction Industries, sales decreased by 23% to $4.1 billion. Volume declined due to low end user demand and changes in dealer inventories. End user demand decrease in North America fueled by declines in pipeline and road construction related sales. Dealers also reduced their inventories principally in North America, with a more significant decrease during the third quarter of 2020 compared to the prior year's third quarter. The segment's third quarter operating profit decreased by 38% to $585 million, reflecting the volume decrease and unfavorable price realization impacted by geographic mix of sales. Lower manufacturing costs and favorable short term incentive compensation expense provide an offset. The margin declined by 340 basis points to 14.4%. As shown on slide 12, Resource Industries sales decreased by 21% in the third quarter to $1.8 billion. We saw lower end user demand for equipment supporting heavy construction, quarry and aggregates and mining. We also saw lower aftermarket part sales in part due to customers deferring maintenance and rebuilds. In addition, unfavorable price realization contributed to the reduction in revenue. Specific to mining, the timing of deliveries in this lumpy business impacted sales. But as Jim mentioned, we expect fourth quarter sales for mining applications to improve versus the third quarter. The parked truck percentage has stayed low as activity and production continues to improve. We saw lower machine sales across all markets, but it was primarily in North America and Latin America. Third quarter profit decreased to $167 million. The segment's operating margin declined by 430 basis points to 9.2% due to the volume decrease and unfavorable price, partially offset by favorable manufacturing costs, as well as short-term incentive compensation expense. Turning to slide 13, third quarter sales of Energy and Transportation declined by 24% to $4.2 billion. That included a 41% sales decline in oil and gas. Demand slowed in North America for reciprocating engines using gas compression. Power Generation sales decreased as well down 8%. This is primarily due to lower sales volumes in engine aftermarket parts and small reciprocating engines, as well as turbines and turbine related services. An increase in large reciprocating engines helped partially offset those declines. Industrial and Transportation sales decreased by 26% and 19% respectively. Rail sales declined on lower locomotive deliveries and related services revenues primarily in North America. Profit to the segment decreased by 52% to $492 million driven by low volume. The segment's operating margin declined by 690 basis points to 11.8%. As well as the negative volume impact margins were also affected by positive one time items in 2019 and negative one time items in 2020. Moving to slide 14 to wrap up our segment commentary; financial products revenue decreased by 16% to $724 million. This is due to lower average financing rates across all regions and lower average earning assets. The latter reflected lower purchase receivables from Caterpillar Inc, associated with the volume declines. Profitability decreased by 35% in third quarter to $142 million, led by a higher provision for credit losses, a lower net yield and a lower asset base. The increase in provision expense was primarily due to lower valuations on collateral that is held to support marine vessel finance receivables, and certain oil and gas assets. CAT Financial continues to support our dealers and customers during this challenging time. Overall, our customers are in good shape. Credit applications are at healthy levels about flat with last quarter and up 15% year-over-year. Past dues were 3.81% in third quarter, up seven basis points from the second quarter. Our customer care programs were successful, as request to second modifications have been very limited. In the United States, second requests only represent about 1% of our customer retail portfolio, while the global percentage remains in the low single digit percent range. Over 90% of customers, whose loans were modified, have now exited their first modification period, and the vast majority has resumed timely payments. As is always the case, CAT Financial will continue to work closely with their customers as they manage the COVID-19 impacts on their businesses and cash flow. Now on slide 15, free cash flow from machinery, energy and transportation was about $900 million in the quarter, a decrease of about $200 million versus the third quarter of 2019, but up about $400 million versus the second quarter of this year. Lower profit was partially offset by favorable cash impacts from working capital as accounts payable improved. We continue to hold a high level of inventory, including components and other work in process to ensure the customers will not be impacted by potential supply disruptions and to make sure we are able to respond quickly to improve demand. Whilst we are not providing annual guidance, we do have a few thoughts on the fourth quarter that may be helpful for your modeling purposes as shown on slide 16. Overall, we expect to see less of a decline in end user demand in the fourth quarter compared with the third based on what we hear from dealers and see in orders. Seasonally the fourth quarter is also typically larger than the third. Sales from services are expected to continue to outperform original equipment for both the fourth quarter and the full year. We now expect our dealers will reduce their inventories by about $2.5 billion by year end, versus our prior assumption of more than $2 billion. For the fourth quarter that will translate to a reduction of around $700 million, which is similar to the reduction we saw in the fourth quarter 2019. The important point is we expect this reduction will enable us to begin 2021 with positive momentum, as we'd expect to be producing much closer to demand. I remind you though, that dealers are independent businesses, and they manage their own inventories. Overall, we expect an improvement in operating margins versus the third quarter. Keep in mind we continue to lap some of the benefits of the material cost reductions which began the second half of 2019. And we also do normally see a seasonable reduction in gross margins in the fourth quarter. The fourth quarter will benefit from savings on incentive compensation. Overall, we do therefore expect an improvement in operating margins quarter-on-quarter. We currently expect about $400 million in total restructuring expenses for the year. This implies restructuring expense of around $100 million in the fourth quarter of 2020 compared with only about $50 million in the fourth quarter of 2019. More importantly, we continue to make progress addressing challenge products including the Dortmund facility action I mentioned earlier. These efforts will continue to increase our efficiency and competitiveness as we move forward. In total, we expect about $300 million of the $400 million spend to relate to these challenged products. We also expect the tax charge to increase in the fourth quarter as we do not expect any discrete tax items at this time. Now turning to Slide 17, and our financial position. Earlier this month, we declared our normal quarterly dividend to $1.03 per share, which translates around $560 million per quarter. Including share repurchases made earlier this year, we’ve returned $2.8 billion to shareholders year-to-date. In April, we suspended our share repurchase program due to uncertainties associated with COVID-19 and then extended that through to the end of the calendar year. Our commitment for our Investor Day in May 2019 is unchanged and we intend to return substantially all our ME&T free cash flow to shareholders through the cycles. We continue to maintain a strong balance sheet, which we can use for compelling M&A opportunities. As Jim mentioned, earlier this month, we announced an agreement to purchase the Weir Group’s oil and gas business for $405 million in cash. It’s a financially attractive transaction even without a recovery in oil prices. Combining Weir’s established Pressure Pumping and Pressure Control portfolio with our own engines and transmissions enables us to create additional value for customers. The proposal also enhances our ability to provide services to oil and gas customers. Its results will be included within our Energy & Transportation segment upon closing. This acquisition comes at a time when some valuations are compelling. It’s consistent with our strategy of investing for long-term profitable growth. We ended the third quarter with a strong financial profile, including $9.3 billion in enterprise cash and over $14 billion in enterprise liquidity. Our credit rating remains strong. We’ve shown our resilience in the current environment and we will emerge an even stronger Company. So finally, let’s turn to Slide 18 and let me recap today’s key points. We continue to execute our strategy for profitable growth. We’re investing in services and expanding offerings while improving operational excellence. In the third quarter, we improved operating margins versus the second quarter. We see improved margins and stronger volumes in the fourth quarter. With dealer inventory coming down by $2.5 billion, we’ll start 2021 well positioned for changes in market demand. And we will emerge from the pandemic as an even stronger Company. With that, I’ll hand it back to Jason to prepare for the Q&A session.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from the light of Jamie Cook from Credit Suisse.
JamieCook:
Hi, good morning. I guess Jim, just trying to read between the lines here; just your comments on dealer inventory. It sounds like you think we've seen the bottom of declines in end user sales, your commentary just on orders or backlog? I mean, do you have a more positive view of 2021 in terms of the possibility of end user demand growth? And if so, can you sort of comment on which areas you're more constructive on versus less without understanding you're not going to want to quantify a revenue growth opportunity for next year? Thanks.
JimUmpleby:
Good morning, Jamie. And yes, you're correct. I'm not going to give 2021 guidance, but I will try to make some comments just to provide some color. So certainly as we sit here today, I feel better today than I did a quarter ago. We've talked about the fact that we are quite constructive on what we see in mining. So mining quoting activity is quite high. I mentioned in my earlier remarks, we are tendering for some large projects that we feel good about that would involve multi year deliveries of large tractors and large mining trucks. Again, mining really is continues to improve. We've talked about the housing starts in the US driving activity on the smaller end of our construction industries business as well. And we believe that strength will continue going into next year as well. So again, we're not going to give guidance here for 2021. [Tech Difficulty] better today than we did a quarter ago.
Operator:
Your next comes from a lot of David Raso from Evercore ISI.
DavidRaso:
Hi, good morning, sort of in the same spirit, I'm just trying to get a sense of you speak now a lot to revenues in sort of sequential historical terms. And now that we have a bit of a baseline for how you're thinking about fourth quarter, to extrapolate that into early 2021, I'm just trying to appreciate the commentary about the improvement, you're saying under production in CI to back in line with retail, the way the year is going to start in 2021, just for some perspective, should we still just think of it as normal sequential starting the year? Or what you're seeing on the order book, you mentioned maybe some timing issues with solar and mining, just to give us a little baseline and I think Andrew said positive momentum into 2021. I think we're just all trying to sanity check when can the company return to positive revenue growth. I mean 2Q is in relatively easy comp. I think people were just trying to figure out how much momentum to start 2021, just some perspective a bit, appreciate.
AndrewBonfield:
Yes, David, it's Andrew. Good morning. Obviously, if you remember in the first quarter, we did see some inventory build although lower than normal by dealers as a result of getting ready for the buying season. And obviously, as we hit that the pandemic hit, as well. I think a couple of thoughts on Q1, so that will be an impact. So obviously, the year-on-year comp, as you say is a little bit more challenging. We did see the big deal inventory reduction occur in Q2, we would expect also, for example, in China, China's a later Chinese New Year this year. So that means there may be some inventory build in Q1, Chinese New Year's sort of middle of February this year. So that may impact Q1 comps. And I think generally, as we say, we think that the underlying momentum in end user sales will start to have an impact more positively. But obviously first quarter had less of an impact. So it's going to be a little bit challenging as we go through the year. I think as we get to January, we'll be able to give you a little bit more feel for exactly how that pans out for the year.
Operator:
Your next question comes from a line of Chad Dillard from Bernstein.
ChadDillard:
Hi, good morning, guys. I hope you guys can comment on CAT's own inventory, I think it's running about 34% of sales on a [pro forma] basis. How should we think the depletion managing destocking there? And where you would expect it to be at the end of the year? And what would you consider to be healthy level there?
AndrewBonfield:
Yes, Chad, this is Andrew. Good morning. As we said, we are holding more inventory than we would normally hold at the CAT end for a couple of reasons for that, one, which is obviously we had a little bit of extra safety inventory as we've gone through the year partly because obviously we have been concerned about supply disruption. So as safety inventory levels are a little bit higher. Second thing is actually, this is one of those odd years where actually we have a downturn and potentially getting ready for an upturn in demand in the same time. Historically, you would always have seen in a down cycle, obviously a reduction in Caterpillar owned inventory. Given the dealers are reducing their inventory levels, given that we are expecting the underlying demand to tick back up as we move into the next financial year. We believe it's right for us to hold a little bit more inventory than we would normally have held. Getting ready for that so that we aren't in a position where the bullwhip effect catches us out as we move into 2021. I mean, obviously normally, if we were in a situation where we didn't see that we obviously would be continued to reduce inventory levels. Obviously, again, we are we have plenty of cash on hand. We are in a low interest rate environment. So financially, it's not a big drag on us to hold a little bit more inventory than we would normally do.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Joe O'Dea from Vertical Research.
JoeO'Dea:
Hi, good morning, everyone. Questions related to services and we saw end user demand trends. The decline rates pretty similar between 2Q and 3Q. It looks like the decline rates on the services side of the business might have accelerated from 2Q to 3Q. I think you've talked about some deferrals. But if you could just comment on what you saw a little bit on the year-over-year trends if in fact it was getting a little bit tougher sequentially. And then in the recent announcements around the leadership changes and clear focus on services there. What you see in terms of opportunities in the near term to control what you can control and drive those revenues higher.
JimUmpleby:
Yes, certainly, and thanks for your question And certainly we are continue to be very focused on services is an important element of our strategy. And as you would expect, services did decline by a lesser extent than OE, in this declining market. Having said that, again, we're continuing to invest to increase services. And I did make some comments, I believe in about what we expected mining in terms of just given that utilization is high, we expect moving into next year to see higher aftermarket sales, but again, continue to invest in that part of the business. And it's something that we're very excited about the opportunity.
Operator:
Your next question comes from a line of Ann Duignan from JP Morgan.
AnnDuignan:
Yes. Good morning. If we could just focus on the comments you made on quarry and aggregates being weaker and then road construction also, I think, you noted in construction equipment being weaker. Can you talk a little bit about the importance of a new FAST Act or new highway bill versus anything we could get some ginormous infrastructure bill? How important is it to get a new four year highway bill going into 2021, particularly for your customers who may not be able to invest with that long term contract?
JimUmpleby:
Yes, the reason one year extension of the service highway bill does provide some certainty for state and local governments so they can plan for projects as we think about. And of course, we've continued to advocate for a long term reauthorization of the federal highway bill. We think it would be very appropriate in terms of economic stimulus. And, of course, the overall infrastructure bill that seems to have very broad, bipartisan support certainly would be a positive for our customers and for us, timing of all that, in fact, of course, is uncertain. It all depends on politics and when it gets passed. But again, based on everything we've seen, it's the one thing that the two sides tend to agree on at this point.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Tim Thein from Citigroup.
TimothyThein:
Great, thanks. Good morning. So this question relates to the interplay of price and material costs, as we look into 2021. Just given the recent moves we've seen in most grades of steel, and what looks to be a bit more of an inflationary environment, which of course, we coming down the pike for CAT, how should we think about the opportunity for pricing actions into 2021? Just given the state of markets globally and then CAT's ability to stay on the plus side of price versus material cost in 2021. Thank you.
AndrewBonfield:
Yes. Thanks, Tim. It's Andrew. Yes, just I mean from that perspective, I mean, obviously, we do bought forward a little bit of our steel. So we are still seeing the benefits of price reductions at this stage. As we're thinking about price actions in 2021, yes, you are completely correct; we are taking into account the demand side of the equation. Obviously, if demand is in a softer demand environment, you obviously do not want to push price too hard. And we are reflecting the fact that obviously at the moment, we are still seeing favorable material costs. In the event, obviously, that does change as we go through the year, we always have the option of thinking about that later. But at the moment, we're in a reasonably good position as we move into 2021.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Rob Wertheimer from Melius Research.
RobWertheimer:
Good morning. You saw a transition two presidents this quarter, which is a little bit unusual. And I wonder if you could talk about that for a second perhaps what was accomplished? And if there's a different focus on the future for Joe and Tony, or whatever direction you want to take it. Thank you.
JimUmpleby:
You bet. Well, certainly as I mentioned, we thank Billy and Ramin for their many contributions during their careers and wish them well on retirement. And we're very excited also about having Joe and Tony joining the executive office. It does not signal any kind of change in strategy; we're going to continue to execute the strategy that we introduced in 2017. Expanded offering and services and operational excellence. So we have a very strong bench and our board spends considerable amount of time on succession planning. So again, that's again, we wish Billy and Ramin all the best.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line out of Courtney Yakavonis from Morgan Stanley.
CourtneyYakavonis:
Hi, guys. Thanks for the question. If you can just comment -- you commented before the housing and resi was one of the parts of the business that seems to be driving activity on the small end of the business that it sounded like you're expecting more muted non-residential activity in the fourth quarter. If you can just comment maybe on those relative sizes of your business in the margin propel between the two and acknowledging that you'd kind of talked about resi heading into next directors, any comments that you would make on non resi? Thanks.
AndrewBonfield:
Yes, thanks, Courtney. It's Andrew. Obviously with a broad portfolio like Caterpillar, you have different margin structures within different parts of the business. And that varies across the portfolio. Obviously, as we have been clear, obviously, the smaller machines tend to have a slightly lower margin than the larger machines. But overall, we think that the portfolio mix, as you've seen even this year is relatively small and manageable within the context of the broader Caterpillar. So I think overall, we are not too worried about that having a drag impact on gross margins. Also the other thing to remember is obviously, if you get very favorable leverage from some of these products, it does help actually improve your margin structure. So that has been the way it's been managed, which is why it's been very manageable, and we expect it to be manageable going forward.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Ross Gilardi from Bank of America.
RossGilardi:
Thank you. Good morning. I had a question for Jim. Jim, the industrial economy seems to be getting better. I mean thus far you're not really seeing it and your retail sales growth in both mining and E&T, I mean, maybe some of that, as you guys discussed is lumpiness and delivery timing. But a lot of that has got to be due to a pretty anemic capital spending outlook in the energy sector and pressures in markets like coal, and you seem to be flagging, ongoing at least near term headwinds for solar, which has been very resilient the last few cycles, I know you're buying Weir assets. But is the company giving any thought to using its $9 billion cash hoard to diversify away from the fossil fuel industry, given the structural headwinds in the energy markets? And markets like coal? And if not, why not?
JimUmpleby:
Well, Ross, certainly appreciate your question. I don't believe we signal any headwinds for solar. But probably the best way to start is by -- it's quite an expansive question you've asked so I'll give you a bit of an expansive answer. But we start by reminding me we're a large diversified business both in terms of end markets and geography. As I mentioned earlier, we're proud to have been named 19th out of 5,500 companies around the world to the Wall Street Journal's top sustainably managed companies. And we build the world's infrastructure. And that would include investments in future energy infrastructure around the world. And I'm confident our products will play a part in that. I believe that we're well positioned to benefit from both the period of transition and after the transition have occurred. And will continue to support our customers during the period of transition, no matter how long that is. But we're also very well positioned to succeed in the future. In terms of how we're supporting our customers today; we have world class products and services to support oil and gas customers. But we're helping them with their ESG goals as well, helping them to reduce their carbon footprint. Whether it's methane abatement by reducing flaring, we're providing battery storage solutions and efficiency improvement. We've introduced a dynamic gas blending engine that allows our online gas customers to substitute up to 85% of diesel fuel with natural gas, and we continue to support all of our mining customers as well. And by the way, our exposure, you mentioned coal; our exposure to coal is low. It's generally between 3% and 5% of company revenues including both machines and parts. And when our mining business look into the future, we see future opportunities due to the growing electric vehicle market that's expected to increase demand for essential metals. In particular copper and nickel are expected to see sustained growth. And we're very excited about some of the opportunities in energy and transportation. We have significant experience burning a wide variety of fuels in our both our recip engines and our turbine including natural gas, CoCom 9and gas, landfill gas and other bio gases. We are well positioned to run our equipment on a variety of blended fuels including hydrogen. Our solar gas turbine generator sets can burn 100% hydrogen to produce electricity. In our turbine and recip engines can be paired with advanced technologies with electric drive batteries, hybrid configurations to reduce overall fuel consumption and carbon emissions. And we have battery electric powered electric drive machines that enable customers to take advantage of available electricity as a renewable alternative to traditional fuels. We've done things like we have an all switch battery locomotive; we develop that in conjunction with Vale, one of our rail customers. So you think about distributed generation, which many believe will be a large part of the future. We're already selling reciprocating engines and gas turbines to backup wind farms and solar, as well. Our engines provide a variety of distributed generation solutions as hydrogen blends and are added to gas networks. And so again, we think we're very well positioned for the future, as the transition occurs, but we are going to continue to support the customers that we have.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Larry DeMaria from William Blair.
LarryDeMaria:
Thank you. Good morning, everybody. Obviously you discussed better environment and optimism in 4Q and early next year. But can you talk, maybe more of the profit side just assuming let's say apples-to-apples flat sales next year? What are some of the puts and takes in profits for example, what's the incentive comp, headwind, what are the benefits on run rate restructuring. Another items on an apples-to- apples basis on profit from this year to next year, without assuming any let's say incremental, or decremental margin?
AndrewBonfield:
Hi, Larry. It's Andrew. Yes, obviously, the -- from a top line perspective, if we produce closer demand, obviously, that means we won't have the negative impact of dealing big reductions. So there will be a positive rolling through the profit, assuming no other obviously changes from an operating leverage perspective. On the sort of cost side, we did see, obviously, step, normal step runs at about $800 million per year on the basis of a standard payout. We will have that as a headwind as we move into 2021. We did see some delays and discretionary spending. Some of that may not come back. Some of that may come back, but it's relatively very minor overall. For example, things like travel have been less. Obviously, there have been other projects, which haven't really got started as such because they've been delayed while people aren't in the office together. So we'll see how that pans out as we get in. And obviously we'll be able to give you a better guide to that as we get into January when we talk about 2021.
LarryDeMaria:
And with restructuring, run rate restructuring number to think about.
AndrewBonfield:
At this stage, we are still putting our plans together for 2021. Obviously, we assume normally on average about $200 million of base restructuring. And then obviously, we've seen some incremental relating to these challenge products. Some of the challenge products, restructurings will recur in 2021. But we're spending about $400 million this year probably wouldn't be that much significant at this stage different next year, we'll maybe even slightly less, we'll need to see how -- as we finish our planning process.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Nicole DeBlase from Deutsche Bank.
NicoleDeBlase:
Yes, thanks. Good morning, guys. Just wanted to spend a little bit more time on E&T, I was a bit surprised by the retail sales deterioration there that you guys reported for the three months ending September, if you could just elaborate a little bit on that. And then also with respect to that segment, decremental margins were a bit higher this quarter. Anything special going on there and how to think about that into 4Q?
AndrewBonfield:
So I'll start with the, Nicole, with the margins piece. As I said in my comments, we did have a small one time credit last year income in E&T, this year we had a number of negative one timer equated to about $70 million that related to some asset write downs and also some inventory impairments. So that was actually the big driver of the margin change quarter-on-quarter.
JimUmpleby:
In terms of sales, both in E&T and Resource Industries but particularly E&T. It's really a lumpy business so you can see deviations quarter-to-quarter in terms of retail sales. So that drives a lot of it.
Operator:
Your next question comes from a line of up Steve Volkmann from Jefferies.
SteveVolkmann:
Hey, good morning, everybody. Thanks for taking my question. It's on the return of cash to shareholders and understandable to sort of pause the repo this year. I'm just curious how you think about next year assuming it restarts at some point? Do you over return cash to sort of make up the difference and get to where you want to be? Or do you restart at kind of the operating cash flow level and proceed that way. Thanks.
AndrewBonfield:
Obviously, good morning, Steve. It's Andrew. Obviously, any decision around that will be a board decision, which will take an update as we move into 2021. Remind you that our actual policy is to return substantially all of ME&T free cash flow. This year, we will already have over returned based on our free cash flow year-to- date. And the amount of buyback we've done probably will be over. So probably we'll just rebase back to what the number is. But again, we'll have a conversation and discussion around that probably back in January timeframe with you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from a line of Jerry Revich from Goldman Sachs.
JerryRevich:
Yes, Hi, good morning, everyone. We've seen across the board, strong digital engagement in this environment for a lot of folks. And I'm wondering if you just quantify for your business out of your connected machines, what proportion of your customers use digital ordering over connected to dealers via the channel? I know you've put in a lot of work there. I am wondering if you could just quantify for us how much traction you're building in that way or any other way you're comfortable talking about it. Thanks.
AndrewBonfield:
You bet, Jerry. We certainly are going to quantify number. But that's something that we're very focused on. And we're seeing improvement over time. So as we continue to invest in our dealers investing as well, and their capabilities, we're seeing improvements, and we expect that to continue, but I really can't quantify it for you this morning.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Steven Fisher from UBS.
StevenFisher:
Great, thanks. Good morning, wondering how much visibility you guys have on China construction, it looks like the retail sales activity is maybe moderating. But Jamie noted you expect continued strength in the next year. So can you just talk a little bit about the visibility there and maybe the drivers in terms of some of the policy shift versus market share and any other key factors? Thank you.
JimUmpleby:
As I mentioned earlier, Steve, we do see continued strength in China. It's been quite strong. And we do expect that strength to continue into next year. Based on what obviously, we don't have a crystal ball. But based on everything we see today, we expect the business to continue to be strong. Again, hard to elaborate much more than that frankly.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Seth Weber from RBC Capital Markets.
SethWeber:
Good morning, everybody. Just kind of along in the lines of a prior question, your R&D spend has been down here for a couple of years. I mean in a scenario where revenue starts to come back up, would you expect a material pickup in R&D spend next year? Thanks.
AndrewBonfield:
Yes. I mean, I think one of the things it's obviously, one of the bigger factors this year on R&D spend actually has been short term incentive compensation reductions that has a year-on-your, one of the most significant impacts. Yes, there have been some project delays. Obviously, as we've gone through the year, just inevitably, not having all the engineers in the room together does mean that some of the R&D projects are going slightly slower. As a percentage of sales, actually R&D is actually up year-over-year because obviously spend is held up slightly better than the rate of decline of revenues. So obviously, we'll see an absolute dollar increase. But obviously, maybe not quite as a big maybe slightly lower percentage as a percentage of revenues.
JimUmpleby:
But, again, we're confident that we are investing in the most important R&D projects, and continue to build up those expanded products, continue to invest in digital. So again, we're very committed to continue developing new products and investing in the most important R&D programs.
Operator:
Your final question comes from a line of Mircea Dobre from Baird.
MirceaDobre:
Thanks. Good morning. Thanks for squeezing me in. Want to go back to mining if we could and maybe Jim, question for you here. If we're kind of looking at the current environment, you sound constructive on mining. It sounds like there are some things in the pipeline and the customers are starting to move on deploying a little bit of capital. How would you compare the discussion in the pipeline that you have now versus where you were in, say, 2016 going into 2017? And I asked because the fleet we all know it's older. So I'm presuming that the decision making, which for your customers is a little bit different today than it was say in 2016?
JimUmpleby:
Yes, I say that the conversations are very different indeed. I mean, by the end of 2016, frankly, our customers were shell shocked, just given them what they had gone through between 2012 and 2016, a very, very tough time for them. And all the discussions were about continued cost reduction, about finding ways they could squeeze more cost out of everything you're doing. The conversations are quite different today, conversations around autonomy, how we can help our customers be more successful. They're talking about Greenfield projects, expanding Brownfield projects, retrofits of autonomy on existing fleets. The conversations are very, very different. And I'd say the mood couldn't be more different. I'm not expecting a wild spike up. As I've said previously, I think the best thing for both the industry and for us is more of a moderated increase over time. But the confidence, the mood is very, very different than it wasn't 2016.
Operator:
That concludes Q&A. I now turn back to the presenters for closing remarks.
Jim Umpleby:
Well, thank you, Jason. Thank you, everyone for your time this morning. Just to kind of summarize here, we're pleased with our performance in the quarter; the company is performing well. We believe we're very well positioned for next year and the longer term future as well. And we look forward to discussing our fourth quarter results with you in January. Thank you.
Jennifer Driscoll:
Thanks, Jim. Thanks, Andrew, and everybody who joined us today. Before we close, let me point out slide 20, where we're providing our preliminary dates for quarterly earnings in 2021 January 29, April 29, July 30, and October 28 2021. A replay of our call will be available online later this morning. We'll also post the transcript on our Investor Relations website later today. Click on investors.caterpillar.com and then click on financials to find those materials. If you have any questions, please reach out to Rob or me. You can reach Rob at [email protected] and [email protected]. The investor relations general phone number is 309-675-4549. I hope you enjoy the rest of your day and now let's turn back to Jason to conclude our call.
Operator:
That concludes today's conference call. Thank you everyone for joining. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by and welcome to the Q2 2020 Caterpillar Inc. Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen only mode. [Operator Instructions] I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Jennifer. Please go ahead.
Jennifer Driscoll:
Thank you. Good morning, everyone. Welcome to Caterpillar's second quarter earnings call. Joining our call today are Jim Umpleby, Chairman of the Board and CEO; Andrew Bonfield, Chief Financial Officer; Kyle Epley, Vice President of our Global Finance Services Division; and Rob Rengel, Senior IR Manager. The call today builds on our earnings release, which we issued earlier this morning. You may find the slides that accompany today's presentation along with the news release on our recently relaunched Investors Relations website in the Investor Sector of caterpillar.com. When you have some time please take a moment to check out the new look and improved organization. We welcome your feedback on any ways that we can make it a better tool for you. Moving on to slide 2, the forward-looking statements we make today are subject to risks and uncertainties. We will also make assumptions that could cause our actual results to be different than the information we discussed today. Please refer to our recent SEC filings and the forward-looking statements reminder in the news release for details on factors that individually or an aggregate could cause our actual results to vary materially from our forecast. Caterpillar has copyrighted this call. We prohibit use of any portion of it without our prior written approval. This year’s quarter included a $0.19 per share remeasurement loss resulting from the settlement of pension obligations. We provide a non-GAAP reconciliation in the appendix to this morning’s news release. Now let's flip to slide 3 and turn the call over to our Chairman and CEO, Jim Umpleby. Jim?
Jim Umpleby:
Thank you, Jennifer and good morning everyone. The second quarter brought unprecedented challenges for our customers, dealers, employees and suppliers. We thank those in healthcare as well as the first responders helping fight the pandemic on the frontline. We also want to thank Caterpillar's global workforce for their commitment to support our customers while keeping each other safe. Working with our dealers, Caterpillar is delivering products and services that enable our customers to provide critical infrastructure that is essential to support society during the pandemic. During this time Caterpillar is leveraging our strong safety culture and remains dedicated to the safety, health and well-being of our employees. Our workforce is successfully navigating this uncertain environment by focusing on keeping period costs down, managing inefficiencies and continuing to meet customer needs. The execution of our strategy including the disciplines and management of structural costs during the last three years is also helping us weather the storm created by COVID-19. We've reduced discretionary expenses including consulting travel and entertainment. Effective July 1 to support our employees we reinstated 2020 base salary increases except for our most senior executives. Short-term incentive compensation plans for 2020 will remain suspended for most salaried management employees and all senior executives. We've also reduced production to match customer demand. Our teams continue to focus on improving operational excellence which includes making our cost structure more flexible and competitive. We've worked through a number of operational challenges relating to the pandemic. As of mid-July substantially all our primary production facilities across the three main segments continue to operate, although many are operating at reduced capacity. We've worked to mitigate disruption to our supply chain by using alternative sources, redirecting orders to other distribution centers and prioritizing the distribution of the most impactful parts. Our global supply chain is in relatively good shape, although the situation remains fluid. We'll continue to work through the challenges. Our financial position is strong and we're confident in our ability to continue serving our global customers. On a consolidated basis Caterpillar ended the second quarter with $8.8 billion of enterprise cash and $18.5 billion of available liquidity sources. Now I will provide a summary of the second quarter's results on slide 4. Second quarter sales and revenues of $10 billion decreased by 31%. The decline was mainly due to lower sales volume driven primarily by lower end user demand and changes in dealer inventories. This morning we reported sales to users decreased by 22% in the second quarter that was less of a drop than we anticipated. Machine sales to users including construction industries and resource industries decreased by 23% driven by a 40% decline in North America. Asia-Pacific was a bright spot. The 7% increase in end user demand for machines in Asia-Pacific was led by improved demand from China. Energy and transportation sales to users decreased by 18% as transportation and industrial were soft while reciprocating engines for oil and gas continue to decline as expected. Power generation remains steady with a year ago quarter. During the second quarter of 2020 dealers decreased their inventory by $1.4 billion. This compares with a $500 million increase in dealer inventory during the second quarter of 2019. The year-over-year change drove nearly half of our sales decline for the quarter. The decrease in dealer inventories in this past quarter was greater than we expected. We now anticipate our dealers will reduce their inventories by more than $2 billion by year end. Andrew will share more details later in the call. Lower sales volume was the primary contributor to our 750 basis point margin decline in the quarter to 7.8%. In spite of the challenging operating environment we continue to invest in our highest priority R&D programs including expanded offerings. We also continued to invest in services such as enhancing our digital capabilities. Profit per share for the second quarter was $0.84 compared with $2.83 in the prior year period. This year's quarter included in $0.19 per share pension re-measurement loss. In the second quarter we returned $600 million to shareholder largely through our quarterly dividend. Year-to-date we have returned $2.3 billion to shareholders via dividends and share repurchases. As a reminder Caterpillar has paid a quarterly dividend every year since 1933 through a variety of challenging business conditions. We continue to expect our strong financial position to support our dividend. In April we suspended our share repurchase program upon completion of the program we established in January. At this point we don't expect to repurchase more shares for the balance of the year. We anticipate returning substantially all of our M, E and T free cash flow to shareholders through the cycles. We also retain balance sheet flexibility for compelling M&A opportunities. Our focus on operational excellence, shorter lead times and flexibility in manufacturing operations will allow us to react quickly to future changes in market conditions either positive or negative. Our financial results for the remainder of 2020 will depend on the duration of the pandemic and its impact on global economic conditions. We withdrew our financial outlook for 2020 in March of this year and we're not providing annual guidance today. We believe it is more helpful at this time to compare the third quarter to second quarter of 2020. Our views are based on current conditions assuming there are no significant changes in the environment compared to where we are today. Overall for the third quarter we expect a reduction in sales to users compared to the previous year's quarter of around 20% which is consistent with the decline in the second quarter. We normally see modestly lower Caterpillar sales in the third quarter versus the second. Turning to slide 5. We expect overall demand in construction industries to follow normal seasonality. In North America while non-residential construction is hard to call we expect residential construction to begin to improve which would favor smaller equipment. We see Asia-Pacific mixed due to the varying effects of the pandemic. In china we expect a normal seasonal pattern; typically the third quarter is a bit weaker than the second. Likewise we anticipate normal seasonality in EMEA. In resource industries overall demand in the quarter is expected to remain soft, largely due to weakness in non-residential construction and quarry and aggregate especially in North America. Commodity prices are mixed. Copper and iron ore improved during the second quarter and gold remains strong. Demand is likely to remain low for products sold into coal applications and in the oil sands. In addition, earlier this year some mining customers shut down operations relating to the COVID-19 pandemic. However, activity in May and June started to improve. Globally the average age of the large mining trucks fleet is historically high and in addition customer interest and autonomy remains strong which we believe represents a competitive advantage for Caterpillar. Conversations with our mining customers indicate that greenfield and brownfield projects are still moving forward. We remain optimistic about the medium and long-term outlook for mining. Energy and transportation sales typically do not decline in the second half of the year. We expect continued challenges in oil and gas to impact demand for reciprocating engines. Solar turbines continues to execute their long-term projects. We continue to anticipate that the demand for data centers and emergency power will be a relative bright spot within power generation. Industrial engines and transportation are expected to continue to reflect conditions in the markets they serve. Turning to slide 6. During our last earnings call we reviewed our strategy which focuses on services, expanded offerings and operational excellence. We also discussed that the impact of COVID-19 in our business had been more severe and chaotic than any cyclical downturn we had envisioned. Importantly, while we've taken actions to reduce costs we've made a conscious decision to continue to invest in enablers of services growth including enhancing our digital capabilities and expanded offerings; key elements of our strategy for long-term profitable growth. While we expect our margins in 2020 to be better than a historical performance at a similar level of sales we continue to believe it will be challenging for us to achieve the margin targets we communicated during our 2019 investor day. Free cash flow for 2020 is less certain at this time as we are holding incremental inventory to mitigate against the risk of supplier disruption. It will become clearer as the year unfolds how much of the inventory needs to be retained. To wrap up, the challenges we've successfully navigated have only strengthened our result that we're pursuing the right strategy. That's why even in this environment we're investing in expanded offerings and services, all of which are key elements of our strategy. We have a strong balance sheet and ample liquidity. We're ready for changes in market conditions either positive or negative. We fully intend to emerge from this crisis an even stronger company better positioned for long-term profitable growth. Now let me turn the call over to Andrew for a more detailed recap of our second quarter results, segment performance and our expectations for the third quarter.
Andrew Bonfield:
Thank you Jim and good morning everyone. I will begin with a review of our second quarter results as well as our cash flow. Then I will comment on the third quarter and the liquidity position before ending with a brief update on actions we're taking to improve our competitiveness and profitability. As you can see on slide 7, total sales and revenues for the second quarter decreased by 31% to $10 billion. Operating profit declined by 65% to $784 million. Profit per share for the quarter was down 70% to $0.84 per share including a pension remeasurement loss of $0.19 per share. This quarter's top and bottomline results were largely driven by volume. Sales to users declined by 22%, which was less of a decline than we had anticipated. However, this had a minimal impact on reported sales and revenues because dealers used the opportunity to reduce their inventory levels by more than we had expected. Services revenues also declined but as anticipated they were down less than original equipment sales. As you see on slide 8, second quarter sales declined by $4.4 billion, $3.9 billion of which was the volume decline. The volume decline reflected in approximately $2 billion reduction in end-user demand and a $1.9 billion movement in dealer inventory. As Jim mentioned, dealers decreased inventory by $1.4 billion this quarter compared with an increase of $500 million in the prior year's quarter. Volume declined in all segments but were most pronounced in construction industries and resource industries. While sales were low in all regions the declines were led by North America which fell by 42%. Price realization lowered sales by $259 million. The negative price was a combination of changes in geographic mix and continued competitive pressures primarily in construction industries. The Brazilian Real and the Australian dollar drove the adverse currency movement of $190 million. Order backlog decreased by about $1.2 billion since the end of the first quarter, following our normal seasonal pattern. It was driven by construction industries and energy and transportation. Compared with a year ago the backlog declined by $2 billion with decreases in all three primary segments. Moving to side 9. Operating profit for the second quarter fell by 65% to $784 million. The volume decline drove the $1.4 billion decrease in operating profit. Operating margins decreased by 750 basis points. Lower manufacturing costs more than offset the unfavorable price realization. We announced in March that we were suspending the year's short-term incentive payments. This action along with other cost reductions lowered our manufacturing costs, SG&A and R&D expenses again this quarter. For comparison, incentive compensation expense in the second quarter of 2019 was about $200 million. With regards to SG&A and R&D it is important to note that the incentive compensation was the major driver of the decline. A portion of the remaining decrease was due to reductions in discretionary spend such as travel due to the slowdown of activity in the quarter. While certain specific cost actions have been taken we continue to prioritize our spending on those projects that have the greatest opportunity to drive long-term profitable growth. Starting on slide 10, I will discuss the individual segments results for the second quarter. Second quarter sales of energy and transportation declined by 24% to $4.1 billion with declines in all regions and applications. The sales decrease was relatively even across transportation, industrial and oil and gas with power generation declining at a lesser rate. Transportation sales declined by 24% driven by reduced rail traffic and lower marine activity. Industrial sales declined by 29% with lower demand across all regions. Oil and gas sales decreased by 21% as demand for reciprocating engines in North America remained weak. However, this was partly offset by higher sales of solar turbines and turbine related services. Power generation sales decreased by 12% with declines moderated by demand for emergency power and data centers. The profit story for energy and transportation is similar to the company overall as lower volume drove the 30% decrease to $624 million partly offsetting the volume decline with lower manufacturing costs as well as lower SG&A and R&D expenses for the reasons I mentioned a moment ago. The segment operating margin declined by 120 basis points to 15%. Turning to side 11. Construction industry sales decreased by 37% in the second quarter to $4 billion. Lower end-user demand and the impact from changes in dealer inventories drove the volume decrease. We also saw unfavorable price realization as the pandemic influenced our geographic mix of sales. By region this included a 54% decrease in North America driven by lower pipeline and road construction activities. The 10% sales decline in Asia-Pacific was primarily due to a combination of price realization and currency impacts. China's sales were about flat as higher end-user demand was largely offset by changes in dealer inventory and unfavorable price realization. The segment's second quarter profit decreased by 58% to $518 million. We had lower volume and unfavorable price realization including unfavorable impacts from the geographic mix of sales versus a record second quarter in the prior year. Lower manufacturing costs partially offset that as did SG&A and R&D savings. The segment's profit margin declined by 650 basis points to 12.8%. As shown on slide 12, resource industry sales decreased by 35% to $1.8 billion in the quarter against a strong comparative from the year ago quarter. Changes in dealer inventories and low end user demand drove the decline. Dealers decreased the inventories in the quarter compared with an increase last year. We saw lower machine sales into non-residential and quarry and aggregate applications while mining equipment declined to a lesser degree. Our mining customers dealt with disruptions in the quarter due to COVID-19 impacts and adjusted production to address weaknesses in something demand for some commodities. The power truck percentage however has stayed low and we remain positive on the replacement cycle and overall prospects for mining in the medium and long term. Resource Industries profit decreased by 68% in the second quarter to [indiscernible] million. The decline reflected lower sales volume partially offsetting that were favorable manufacturing costs and lower short-term incentives expense. Profit margin declined by 880 basis points to 8.3%. Moving to slide 13. Financial products revenues decreased by 13% in the quarter to $763 million. The decline was due to lower average financing rates and lower average earning assets. The latter reflecting lower purchase receivables from CAT Inc. as volumes declined. Profitability decreased by 23% in the second quarter to $148 million led by lower net yield and the lower asset base. We have also increased the provision for credit losses by $58 million compared with the first quarter of 2020 due to the expected impacts of COVID-19 on future credit losses. We continue to support our dealers and customers during these challenging times. As we mentioned on last quarter's earnings call, we launched customer care programs that allow customers around the world to apply for payment relief through a simplified and streamlined process. It is encouraging to see that new requests for payment relief have slowed dramatically since April. It's worth reviewing additional key indicators of customer health in the quarter. We told you that most of our customers entered this downturn fairly healthy and current on their loans. This quarter past dues were 3.74% down from 4.13% in the first quarter. The second quarter benefited from the fact that loans with modifications are not considered past due. So we will be carefully monitoring these accounts as their normal payments really presume. New business volume declined by 18% compared to the second quarter of 2019 but outperformed compared to the first quarter of 2020 as we saw an uptick in June across all regions except Latin America. As dedicated teams continue to provide financial solutions to qualify customers around the globe. Turning to cash flow. Free cash flow for machinery, energy and transportation for the quarter was about $500 million down from $1.8 billion in 2019 and about $1.2 billion of lower profit. We began to reduce Caterpillar inventories this quarter which provided a bit of an offset to the decline in profit. This was less of a benefit than we would normally see with such a substantial reduction in the top line as we are holding an amount of safety stores including components and other work in process to mitigate the risk of supply disruption. The negative working capital component was driven by lower accounts payable as we reduced total purchases in the quarter due to spending declines. Let's turn to slide 14. The full year impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on our business cannot be reasonably estimated at this time. So while we continue to suspend annual guidance, I thought it would be helpful for modeling purposes to share a few of our key thoughts for the third quarter. As Jim mentioned, we expect normal seasonality in the third quarter which means that total sales to users are expected to be lower than in the second quarter. We expect a similar percentage decline in end-user demand in the third quarter as we saw in the second. Whilst we expect deal inventory to decline in the third quarter we expect that to be around the level we saw in the third quarter of last year and I will talk a bit more about dealer inventory in a moment. In terms of profitability, we're now starting to lack some of the benefits of the material cost reductions which began in the second half of 2019. So this likely will have a negative impact on our gross margin. Whilst the benefit from incentive compensation will continue, the absolute dollar amount will be low in the third quarter than it was in the second. So overall we may not see an improvement in operating margins in the third quarter versus the second quarter. Let me also give you an update on our full year expectations for dealer inventory reductions. In the first half of the year, dealers reduce their inventories by about $1.2 billion. As a reminder dealers are independent businesses and manage their own inventories. Based on their latest read on end-user demand we currently anticipate that dealers will further reduce their inventories by another $1 billion in the second half of the year. That is similar to the reduction they made in the second half of 2019. We anticipate that this reduction will enable us to produce in line with end-user demand in 2021. As we typically do, we expect to be able to update you in January on our 2021 outlook. Turning to slide 15 for our capital allocation and cash and liquidity position. We recently declared our quarterly dividend and remain proud of our status as a dividend aristocrat. In combination with our share repurchase program we have returned about $2.3 billion to shareholders this year to date including $600 million returned to shareholders in the second quarter. At our Investor Day in May 2019 we shared our intention to return substantially all of our free cash flow to shareholders through the cycle by dividends and more consistent share repurchases. We suspended our share repurchase program in mid April and as Jim indicated we don't expect to recommence share repurchases this year. We ended the second quarter with $8.8 billion in enterprise cash. Given the environment we've maintained an incremental $3.9 billion short-term credit facility as well as our existing $10.5 billion revolving credit facility. Both of these liquidity resources remain undrawn. As we mentioned last quarter, we've also registered $4.1 billion in commercial paper support programs now available in the United States and Canada and we issued $2 billion in corporate bonds. In July CAT financial issued $1.5 billion of median term notes to further supplement its liquidity position. We currently have $11.1 billion in machine energy and transportation long-term debt with no maturities due in 2020 and less than $1.4 billion during 2021. We don't expect to make discretionary contributions to U.S. pension plans for the foreseeable future given the current funding status. We are comfortable that the strength of our balance sheet enables us to manage through the cycle and we believe we are well positioned to respond to changes in demand either positive or negative as we move into 2021.
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Production will be transitioned to Asia and will be closer to end customers and improved its competitiveness. We also reached an agreement to solve Caterpillar propulsion AB which manufactures propulsion systems and marine controls for ships. Any lost sales from the actions we've taken thus far are not expected to be material this year or in 2021. We still expect about $300 million to $400 million in annual restructuring expense as we continue to drive the operating and execution model. In the second quarter a restructuring expense totaled approximately $147 million compared with $110 million in the prior year’s quarter. We expect restructuring expense to be higher in the third quarter than it was last year but it will be slightly lower than it was in the second quarter. So finally let's turn to slide 16 and recap today's key points. We have a strong financial position and we're confident in our ability to continue to serve our global customers in the current environment. We have returned $2.3 billion to shareholders via dividends and buybacks in the year to date. We're working with our dealers to manage customer demand and we expect dealers to reduce their inventories this year by over $2 billion. Our factories remain agile leveraging lean principles and we remain ready to respond to positive or negative changes in demand. In 2021, we expect to produce demand. Our strategy is working and we remain focused on operational excellence, services and expanded offerings. We thank all our employees for staying safe while enabling us to continue to serve our customers, supporting some of the critical infrastructure, enabling the transportation of essentials and satisfying global needs for energy. With that, I will hand it over to the operator to start the Q&A session.
Operator:
Thank you. Our first question comes from the line of Ross Gilardi from Bank of America. Your line is open.
Jennifer Driscoll:
Good morning, Ross. Ross, are you muted? We'll move on to our next question from the line of Stephen Volkmann from Jefferies. Your line is open.
Stephen Volkmann:
Hi, good morning. I think I am here. Can you hear me?
Jim Umpleby:
Yes. Good morning, Steve.
Stephen Volkmann:
All right. Great. Thanks and thanks for all the detail here today. I guess if it's possible, you may not want to go too far down this path but I am trying to think a little bit about 2021 not in terms of an outlook but in terms of just sort of the comparative things and so I am guessing we're going to get some benefit from that under producing the $2 billion which is probably substantial $500 million or $600 million of tailwind I guess from that but we'll have a headwind because I guess you'll be reinstating incentive compensation and various other sort of temporary things. So I guess my question specifically is what costs were sort of temporary this year that may come back next year irrespective of whatever volume we may choose to forecast.
Jim Umpleby:
Well, thanks Stephen. As you mentioned certainly, we're not giving guidance for next year obviously because of the all the uncertainty that's there so much depends upon the pandemic and the resulting impact on the economy but you correctly stated that it would be reasonable to assume that short-term incentive would be a cost next year that we wouldn't have this year. We are certainly continuing to look for other ways to reduce costs. We challenge all of our leaders to continue to find ways to be more efficient. We're working on what we do inside, what we do outside, things we do inside if they continue to be done inside can we do them in a more efficient lower cost way through a location change or some other change. So again we're continually working every cost angle we can think of but probably the biggest one that comes to mind is that short-term incentive comp as you mentioned.
Stephen Volkmann:
And Jim, are you willing to talk at all about the benefits of all the restructuring that Andrew laid out for us this year? What you might see for benefits in ‘21?
Andrew Bonfield:
I mean at this stage Steve, we won't talk about it but probably we'll give you a little bit more of an indication in January when we give the outlook because obviously there will be lots of puts and takes as you clearly point out.
Jim Umpleby:
And again the biggest determining factor I suspect will be volume. So we'll have to see how the economy plays out.
Stephen Volkmann:
Fair enough. Thanks.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Ross Gilardi from Bank of America. Your line is open.
Ross Gilardi:
Thank you. Sorry about that guys. Can you hear me now?
Jim Umpleby:
We can. Thanks Ross. Good morning.
Ross Gilardi:
Good morning. I'm trying to piece together what's happening with pricing in construction you mentioned that it was influenced by geographic mix and I'm wondering if the overall 4% decline is heavily biased towards China perhaps. The reason I'm asking is in your Asia-Pacific construction is down 10% despite the strength that we're all aware of in the China excavator market, yet of course as you show your pricing is down 4% for the segment. So is the 10%, down 10% Asia-Pacific because China excavator pricing is particularly challenged or is it because the rest of Asia-Pacific was hit significantly harder than the China excavator market? Any color there would be really appreciated.
Jim Umpleby:
Ross one of the issues is we call geomix, I mean the biggest pricing factor was the fact that North American sales were down. So that has a big impact on pricing. So that was the number one impact. Certainly, yes there is competitive pressures in China. We're confident in our ability to compete in China long term, continue to expand our products and our dealers are well positioned but to answer your question the biggest single issue impacting pricing was the fact that North American sales were down so significantly.
Ross Gilardi:
Okay.
Andrew Bonfield:
Sorry Ross. Just to give a little bit more color as well don't forget there's currency impacts in the reported China sales and also remember we had built inventory ahead of the Chinese new year. So some of that inventory got burned down in the CI in Q2.
Ross Gilardi:
Okay. Got it. And then just as a follow-up, I'm just curious about mining and when do you think will, will see positive margin comps again in resource industries and the copper and iron ore prices are very strong. Capital with the big miners is very strong yet it’s little bit puzzling the revenue declines are seem to be intensifying and the segment and margins are billing lower despite what you're doing on digital, I'd also think you'd be seeing a very favorable mix shift towards parts as miners refurbished existing fleet. So I understand that miners are being frugal on deferring CapEx but just curious about that sort of persistent margin or erosion aside from the COVID-19 impacts and are you getting paid for your new technology that's obviously generating enormous cost savings for your customers.
Jim Umpleby:
Yes. The biggest issue affecting margins of course is volume because of the leverage we have there. So you've seen that as volume came down, you saw an impact there. So again we'll have the biggest impact on operating margins in NRI is higher volume. As we mentioned we continue to be a positive on mining outlook medium and the long term. It's not surprising that in the short term given what's happening with COVID customers are being a bit cautious but as I mentioned in my remarks we haven't seen any projects that were involved in being canceled. The greenfield and brownfield projects are moving forward. So we haven't seen any significant kinds of cancellations. So again we're bullshit about that. So the biggest thing that'll have an impact certainly is the biggest impact will come from volume due to operating leverage.
Jennifer Driscoll:
And please remember one question per person. Thank you.
Ross Gilardi:
Thank you.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Jerry Revich from Goldman Sachs. Your line is open.
Jerry Revich:
Yes. Hi. Good morning everyone.
Jim Umpleby:
Good morning, Jerry.
Jerry Revich:
Question on digital. Can you talk about how much progress you've been able to make in this environment and rolling out the full suite of digital tools to your dealers in terms of the ability to assess market share by product and all the analytics that you folks are providing? Where are we in that rollout? Where we slowed by the obvious challenge travel environment? And by the same token can you also comment on with all the telematics data that you're getting have you seen any slowdown in utilization rates in July with the flare-up in COVID in parts of the U.S.? Thanks.
Jim Umpleby:
You bet. Well, we continue to invest in our digital capabilities from a whole variety of perspectives. I mean, we have created and continue to create tools which give us ability a better read internally and where some of the biggest opportunities are in the aftermarket. So that's a tool for both Caterpillar and our dealers to use. In addition to that we talked about the fact that we hit a million connected assets at the end of last year and we're looking at ways of leveraging that data. Clearly in parts of the world where economic activity was shut down as you can imagine we saw an impact in utilization rates but again it's a very fluid dynamic situation. Some areas that went down have come back up and so again it's very fluid and dynamic as the pandemic impacts economies differently around the world. But again it's an area that we continue to invest in and I think we're making good progress. So we really haven't slowed down.
Jerry Revich:
And sorry just a clarification, when do you expect the full suite of market share tools by product to be available to your dealers globally? Can you just provide an update there?
Jim Umpleby:
It's a never-ending journey. So I don't think we'll ever get there. So what we're doing is looking at continually adding on new capabilities as we move forward. So we still have a ways to go. There is no question and again we'll continually add upon those capabilities; that's our intent.
Jerry Revich:
Okay. Thank you.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Ann Duignan from JP Morgan. Your line is open.
Ann Duignan:
Hi, good morning everyone.
Jim Umpleby:
Good morning, Ann.
Ann Duignan:
Good morning. I just wanted to ask a step back and ask a more long-term question. Back in the old days when I visit CAT dealers they would always say that their life begins and ends with residential construction because if you're building new houses, you're eventually putting in surge systems and schools, etc. etc. So I am just curious if there's any reason to believe that we're not kind of back at the beginning of a brand new cycle where residential leads, non-residential in terms of at least infrastructure and then what is your thinking in terms of rental as opposed to purchase as we move forward given the uncertainties out there and how would that impact your business long term?
Jim Umpleby:
Well, thanks for your question Ann and certainly as you ask that question, I think it's important to think about our dealer network and business from a global perspective. So I suspect your question is more slanted towards North America and clearly residential construction is important as you say if in fact there are build out new homes that requires infrastructure to support all of that. So I certainly understand your question but again obviously we have to keep in mind that we have a very strong mining business and oil and gas business and other kinds of businesses as well. Rental, I think will be important and will continue to be important. It's an area that we're focused on. I am not ready to make a call as to whether or not the COVID will have a significant step change in purchase versus rental but we view rental as an important business and that market will continue to grow over time.
Ann Duignan:
Okay. I will leave it there in the interest of time. Thank you.
Jim Umpleby:
Thanks Ann.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of David Raso from Evercore ISI. Your line is open.
David Raso:
Hi, good morning. My question relates to incremental margin. Can you give us some sense of how to think about a lot of puts and takes you threw out there for 3Q year-over-year? How to think about the decrementals in 3Q versus the 30% you just posted for 2Q and on the way back up there were some questions alluding to this earlier but Jim you mentioned short-term incentive comp coming back. You would continue to look for other ways to cut costs to offset that. Would you be willing to give us some sense of how you think of incremental margins on the way up in totality? I know there's a lot in there with [mix] and so forth but I mean historically CAT after a year of revenue decline has put up pretty significant incrementals. I know the business has changed a bit but just wanted to get some level set how you're thinking about it. Thank you.
Jim Umpleby:
Yes David. I think this comes down to the fact and as Jim did alluded to in the script the fact that we haven't built in structural costs over the last three years does enable us to actually when you think about absolute margins going forward, we are obviously most sensitive to volume variances which is probably the biggest single factor driving margin performance. So obviously in an environment where margin, where volumes are improving, you'll see obviously very significant improvement in overall margins. You'll notice, I am not using incrementals or decrementals again but I do think that really is obviously the biggest single benefit to us. As we look out in Q3 as we mentioned obviously normally as you would always expect there is some seasonality because of lower volume in Q3 versus Q2 that does have an impact on particularly on gross margin. You obviously also we are lapping those material cost changes. So that will have a slightly negative impact on gross margin as I mentioned in my notes. We will see a lower absolute dollar number in step savings in Q3. It was a lower number in the quarter last year. So that will have some impact. So overall what we're saying is probably margins, we shouldn't expect a margin improvement as we move into Q3. What that does mean though obviously is normally overall I think margins last year in Q3 was slightly lower than they were in Q2. So actually that would be what we would call relatively good performance year-on-year within that regard because I think overall the margin in Q3 last year actually slightly higher than 15.8% rather than 15.3%. So but that would sort of hold those sorts of levels.
David Raso:
So that last comment just be clear, it should be roughly around the 30 that we saw in 2Q just ballpark?
Jim Umpleby:
It shouldn't be. If you do the math and you assume margin, there is no improvement in operating margins from the 7.8% we've just posted against the 15.8% that will be slightly higher as a percentage.
David Raso:
Okay. Thank you very much. I appreciate it.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Andrew Casey from Wells Fargo Securities. Your line is open.
Andrew Casey:
Thanks a lot. Good morning, everybody.
Jim Umpleby:
Good morning, Andy.
Andrew Casey:
Good morning. I just wanted to ask a question, it's around the benefits if you will from the pandemic. Other companies have mentioned cost benefit pull ahead from acceleration of initiatives due to the pandemic and things like technology. Could you help us understand whether you're seeing similar opportunities internally and then are they meaningful and then also kind of back to Jerry's question have you seen any increased, I guess indication of interest in your digitally enabled product as an outcome of the response to the pandemic?
Jim Umpleby:
Yes. It will certainly again as I mentioned we're continually looking for ways to reduce costs and to be more efficient and certainly a situation like this causes – I think company to step back and look at ways they can accelerate cost reduction activities and think about their structural costs and so again we're no different than anyone else. We're thinking about those things as well. In terms of digital, obviously if in fact things can be done remotely as -- and not an individual does not have to travel and be face to face there's an advantage in that. So we're using digital capabilities where we can but certainly our dealers continue to support our customers and we have technicians that continue to work on equipment. So again what this pandemic has really demonstrated is that digital strategy is correct.
Andrew Bonfield:
And I think the other area where obviously is the autonomous solutions where people will be looking for those and obviously we are optimistic that this will actually encourage further uptake rather than make it expand it faster.
Jim Umpleby:
Yes. That is a very good point because think about our mining operation the number of autonomous mining trucks we have, if in fact you can do more using autonomous technologies it reduces the need for think about camps and all the things that our mining customers have to do with people in close proximity. So that certainly could be an acceleration from a market perspective.
Andrew Casey:
Sure. I guess are you seeing any of that, the external response at this point or is it more optimism it's going to come?
Jim Umpleby:
No, as I mentioned in my prepared remarks, we see very strong interest in our autonomous solution and we do believe quite strongly that we have the best solution there and that gives us a competitive advantage but yes interest and autonomy and mining has been very strong. Lots of conversations with customers about that.
Andrew Casey:
Okay. Thank you very much.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Jamie Cook from Credit Suisse. Your line is open.
Jamie Cook:
Hi, good morning everyone. I guess Jim, I think you mentioned in the prepared remarks while you don't expect your margin performance to be what you outlined at the analyst day, you do expect to get, have better margins relative to another downturn, I think with on similar sales. Is there any way you could help us understand sort of which downturn you're talking about so we can understand the comp? And then I guess just as a follow-up, relative to Ann's question or maybe even Ross's outside of the pandemic there does seem to be some green shoots. Can you just speak to markets that you would be more positively inclined to sort of think would recover first or which markets structurally you're more concerned about. Thank you.
Jim Umpleby:
Yes, Jamie when we talk about margin comparisons to the historical past, we're looking at a year when we had a similar year sale. So I believe if memory serves that would have been 2016. So again, I think we were about $39 billion. So again if you think about margin, we always think about it is we think about for a similar level of sales we expect higher operating margins and we expect that to be the case this year as well. I mean in terms of green shoots I mean China was an area that, the pandemic hit China first and business has been quite strong in China. So that's quite positive. So again it's very much a fluid dynamic situation. Obviously the virus starts to go away in an area then starts then starts to come back. So again it's very fluid. So it's difficult for me to really predict any area other than right now again we see a lot of strength in China.
Jennifer Driscoll:
And just to elaborate that's 10% to 21% then range across the cycles.
Jamie Cook:
Okay. Thank you.
Operator:
And our next question comes from the line of Rob Wertheimer from Melius Research. Your line is open.
Rob Wertheimer:
Thank you. Good morning everyone.
Jim Umpleby:
Hi Rob.
Rob Wertheimer:
So just a simple question I think you talked a lot about sales to end-users and the trend and the expectation of dealers e-stock. Those are very helpful. How did after market kind of trend in 2Q? I know you don't get a lot of disclosure. We've seen other companies down like 20 is disruption caused less repair. I don't know if that's a relative tailwind in the 3Q if it dipped that much for year or less and whether you expect it to come back?
Jim Umpleby:
Yes. So services in total were down but they were down less significantly than new equipment sales were which is what we'd expect which is one of the reasons that it's an advantage to build out our services revenue. So yes, there was a drop but it wasn't as significant as new equipment.
Rob Wertheimer:
And then as the economies of [side] restarted is utilization we've seen that from Kamatsu and others up and therefore an expectation that services kind of comes back or you're not seeing that trend yet. I will stop. Thanks.
Jim Umpleby:
It's a mixed bag. It depends on geography and it depends upon the area that we're talking about but again in areas where economic activity has strengthened certainly we're seeing improvement there. So it tends to follow economic activity leads to more utilization which leads to more services sales.
Rob Wertheimer:
Thanks.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Nicole DeBlase from Deutsche Bank. Your line is open.
Nicole DeBlase:
Yes. Thanks. Good morning.
Jim Umpleby:
Good morning, Nicole.
Nicole DeBlase:
I guess my question is around the outlook for retail sales to remain in the same range as they were in 2Q and 3Q on a year-on-year basis. I guess, I am a little surprised by that 2Q obviously saw the worst impact of the pandemic in April and May with respect to end user demand and definitely the comps get easier in the second half. So just curious if maybe there's some conservatism baked in there and maybe if there's scope for some upside as if trends continue to improve like into July and the rest of the fall.
Jim Umpleby:
Yes. So obviously there is a couple of things one which is obviously there is a seasonable pattern to some of our retail stats. So obviously if people have missed the summer season obviously is unlikely that they would revert back. So whether there's any pent-up demand is unlikely to come through. Secondly what we do believe is that if retail stats do improve and not slightly better we've actually done most of our production shuttling for the quarter. We would probably see a further acceleration in the reduction in dealer inventory. So probably not much of a surprise to CAT Inc. but obviously we would obviously improve pull through the dealer inventory reductions a little bit quicker.
Andrew Bonfield:
And maybe just to restate the obvious we're in a very dynamic market and what we've said is that we're ready for changes positive or negative. So we're giving you a sense of what we see as to where we see things today we're not, what we're saying is we're not expecting a further decline in sales to users is what we're saying basically right and so that's really the message. We don't expect things to get worse based on what we see today and again things could get better. Again it's very difficult to judge just based on for obvious reasons.
Nicole DeBlase:
Totally understand. Thanks. I will pass it on.
Jim Umpleby:
Thanks Nicole.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Mircea Dobre from Baird. Your line is open.
Mircea Dobre:
Thank you. Good morning and just to follow up on that previous question. If we're kind of thinking about the third and the fourth quarter here you're essentially saying that at retail level things aren't really getting worse maybe they're getting a little bit better. The billion dollars worth of dealer destock that you're expecting in the second half won't really create a headwind on a year-over-year basis. So I guess my question is this is we're thinking about normal seasonality here is it fair to expect that normal seasonal uptick in revenue in the fourth quarter and if so how do you think that's going to translate to margins based on all the moving pieces to the cost structure that you talked about previously?
Jim Umpleby:
Yes. So interesting seasonality varies by business by business as you go through. As you know Mircea one of the things you'll see probably in the fourth quarter is particularly transportation and solar normally traditionally have a strong fourth quarter which drives their uptick and in particular in energy and transportation. Nothing we see today would expect that to be any different. As regards Q3 and Q4 for both of those CI does have obviously it tends to be a little bit negative in Q3 and Q4. Obviously the timing of Chinese New Year in Q4 last year, the inventory build won't probably really happen this year. So again that's another factor to build in as you think about the outlook on a higher level sort of look through and then ROI just remains lumpy. It is very much related to project by project particularly on the mining side. So that's difficult to predict and doesn't really have a seasonality. It's really based around customer orders.
Andrew Bonfield:
Maybe just one comment about dealer inventory just to add on to that. One of the things we're doing is again positioning ourselves both within Caterpillar and dealers to respond quickly to positive or negative demand by -- our dealers are independent businesses that make their own decisions about inventory but by in fact having that dealer inventory go down that allows us to produce to demand. So again that will remove a potential headwind obviously for next year.
Mircea Dobre:
But just to clarify if revenues are up sequentially in a fourth quarter, is it fair for us to expect lower decrementals than what you've just talked about for the third quarter?
Andrew Bonfield:
At this stage we are not, but yes normally you would expect if there is a volume increase that obviously quarter-on-quarter that does help reported margins, however, just to point out always we do always see a fourth quarter of decline in margins in CI in particular . That is one of the biggest factors. So again it may not, the decrementals may not change from quarter to quarter. We just need to see what we think the volume will be at that point in time.
Jim Umpleby:
And it depends on mix as well, I mean so typically as Andrew mentioned we have a strong fourth quarter. Solar typically has a strong fourth quarter and we don't expect that to be any different this year and that helps from a mixed perspective. So again it's mixed dependent as well.
Mircea Dobre:
All right. Thank you guys.
Operator:
Our final question today will come from the line of Steven Fisher from UBS. Your line is open.
Steven Fisher:
Great. Thanks. Good morning. So your machinery ENT cash and your enterprise cash were up by quite a bit. It sounds like you're still kind of reserving a little bit of caution on deployment there. Is there a certain level of cash that you'd like to have such that you'd be then comfortable returning more of it or deploying it or is it really just a matter of timing until you really feel comfortable that activity levels have bottomed and we have some visibility to things possibly turning a little bit better.
Jim Umpleby:
Yes. It's just really a function of us looking at global economic conditions and the pandemic and just the uncertainty that's there. So it really is a function of the pandemic.
Steven Fisher:
Okay. Fair enough. Thanks.
Jennifer Driscoll:
So now I would like to turn it back to Jim for some closing remarks and then I will close it at the end.
Jim Umpleby:
Alright. Well again thank you for your questions today. We greatly appreciate it. As we mentioned we are very well-positioned we believe to profitably grow our company. Although we've got challenges due to the pandemic we're continuing to invest in our long-term future in new products enabling our services capabilities and again we greatly appreciate your time this morning. Thank you.
Jennifer Driscoll:
Thank you, Jim. Thanks everyone who joined us today. A replay of our call will be available online later this morning. We'll also post a transcript on the relaunched investor relations website probably on Monday. Click on investors.caterpillar.com and then click on Financials. If you have any questions please reach out to Rob or me. You can reach Rob at [email protected]. I'm at [email protected]. The investor relations general phone number is 309-675-4549. I hope you have a nice weekend and now let's jump back to the operator to conclude our call.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen thank you for participating. This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by and welcome to the Q1 2020 Caterpillar Inc. Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen only mode. I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Jennifer Driscoll. Please go ahead, ma'am.
Jennifer Driscoll:
Thanks Jacqueline. Good morning, everyone. Welcome to Caterpillar's first quarter earnings call. Joining the call today are Jim Umpleby, Chairman of the Board and CEO; Andrew Bonfield, CFO; Kyle Epley, Vice President of our Global Finance Services Division; and Rob Rengel, Senior IR Manager. Our call today expands on our earnings news release, which we issued earlier this morning. You can find the slides that accompany today's presentation along with the news release in the Investors section of caterpillar.com, under Events & Presentations. The forward-looking statements we make today are subject to risks and uncertainties. We’ll also make assumptions that could cause our actual results to be different than the information we discuss today. Please refer to our recent SEC filings and the forward-looking statements reminder in the news release for details on factors that individually or combined could cause our actual results to vary materially from our forecast. Caterpillar has copyrighted this call. We prohibit use of any portion of it without our prior written approval. This year’s quarter included a $0.38 per share benefit from a remeasurement gain, while last year’s quarter included a discrete tax benefit of $0.31 per share. There is a non-GAAP reconciliation in the appendix to this morning’s news release. In a moment, you’ll hear from Andrew about the first quarter results, the actions we’ve taken to boost our liquidity, and a few key financial assumptions for the rest of 2020, but first please turn to Slide 3 as we turn the call over to our Chairman and CEO, Jim Umpleby. Jim?
Jim Umpleby:
Thank you, Jennifer. Good morning and welcome to Caterpillar’s first quarter earnings call. During this difficult time, our thoughts are with those affected by COVID-19. We extend our deepest sympathies to those who have lost a loved one during the pandemic. We thank those individuals in healthcare as well as the first responders helping fight the pandemic on the frontline. I also want to thank Caterpillar’s global workforce. This month, we are celebrating 95 years of operation at Caterpillar. For nearly a century, we have faced and overcome many challenges. As in the past, our employees are rising to the occasion. I appreciate their commitment to support our customers while keeping our facilities and co-workers safe. As the COVID-19 pandemic spread around the world, many governments classified Caterpillar’s operations as essential activity for support of critical infrastructure. Working with our dealers, Caterpillar is delivering products and services that enable our customers to provide critical infrastructure that is essential to support society during the COVID-19 pandemic. Customers use our products to provide prime and standby power for hospitals, grocery stores, and data centers; to transport food and critical supplies in trucks, ships, and locomotives; to maintain clean water and sewer systems and to mine commodities and extractive fuels essential to satisfy global energy demand. While we are serving these important needs, Caterpillar remains dedicated to the safety, health, and well-being of our employees. The Caterpillar team achieved our best safety performance on record in 2019 and we are leveraging our strong safety culture during the pandemic. Employees who can work from home are doing so. In our facilities that remain open, Caterpillar is implementing safeguards to protect our team members in accordance with regulatory requirements and guidance from health authorities. We’ve also introduced a number of enhanced employee benefits to help them deal with the pandemic. These benefits vary by country based on local medical care systems and various regulatory requirements. Since Caterpillar was founded, our world-class global dealer network has provided us with a competitive advantage. And during this pandemic, our 165 dealers and their employees around the world continue to support our customers as they maintain critical infrastructure. Our team at Cat Financial also continues to support our customers as Andrew will describe in more detail. Cat Finance supports our customers through good times and challenging times, which is one of the reasons we have so many loyal customers. The Caterpillar Foundation has also committed $10 million to support COVID-19 response activities being taken by organizations around the world. Now, turning to Slide 4. Caterpillar is well positioned to navigate the COVID-19 pandemic. Our financial position is strong, and we are confident in our ability to continue serving our global customers. We will continue to execute the strategy we introduced in 2017, which is based on growing services and expanded offerings while improving operational excellence. The execution of our strategy during the last three years positions us well for these challenging times. Our disciplined management of structural cost will help us weather the storm created by COVID-19. We held our period costs of SG&A, R&D, and manufacturing along with our salaried and management headcount flat from the end of 2016 to 2019, even though sales and revenues increased 40% during the same timeframe. While this leaves us less to cut in the downturn the lower cost base, and the need for significantly less restructuring costs mean that our absolute margins and cash flow will be higher than they would have been had we allowed period costs and salaried management headcount to increase during the last three years. In response to the pandemic, we’ve taken actions to improve our already strong financial position and increase liquidity. On a consolidated basis, Caterpillar ended the first quarter with $7.1 billion of cash and available global credit facilities of $10.5 billion. In April, we raised $2 billion of incremental cash by issuing new 10-year and 30-year bonds and arranged $8 billion of additional backup facilities to supplement the company's liquidity position. We’ve reduced discretionary expenses including consulting, travel, and entertainment. We suspended 2020-base salary increases and short-term incentive compensation plans for most salary/management employees and all senior executives. We are also reducing production costs to match customer demand. We continue to focus on improving operational excellence, which includes making our cost structure more flexible and competitive. We are working through a number of operational challenges related to the pandemic and have suspended operations at certain facilities due to a combination of supply chain issues, weak customer demand, and government regulations. As of mid-April, approximately 75% of our primary production facilities across our three main segments continue to operate. Some facilities that were temporarily closed have reopened, such as in China. We have worked quickly to mitigate disruption to our supply chain by using alternative sources, increasing air fright as needed, redirecting orders to other distribution centers, and prioritizing the redistribution of the most impactful parts. Our employees and dealers continue to serve our customers. Now, I’ll give you a summary of the first quarter's results on Slide 5. Sales and revenues of $10.6 billion decreased by 21%. The decline was mainly due to lower sales volume, including lower end-user demand and the impact from changes in dealer inventories. End-user demand was below our internal expectations for the quarter. Sales to users for the first quarter declined by 16%. The decline was most pronounced in Asia-Pacific where we compete primarily in construction industries and in North America, which had weakness from machines and energy and transportation engines. Oil and gas declined 24% for the quarter. Small bright spots included construction in Latin America, mining in Asia Pacific and EAME and power generation. During the first quarter of 2020, dealers increased inventory by $100 million in anticipation of normal seasonal demand from end-users. This compares with $1.3 billion increase in dealer inventory during the first quarter of 2019. The year-over-year change of $1.2 billion in dealer inventory also placed pressure on our sales. Our first quarter operating profit margin was 13.2%, down 320 basis points. The decline was primarily driven by lower sales volume. Favorable SG&A, R&D, and manufacturing costs, partially offset the world decline. The R&D decline was mostly due to lower short-term incentive compensation as most of our R&D projects are proceeding consistent with our strategy. Profit per share was $1.98, compared with $3.25 in the prior year's period. This year's quarter included a $0.38 per share benefit from our re-measurement gain, while last year's quarter included a discrete tax benefit of $0.31 per share. Now, moving to Slide 6. In the first quarter, we returned $1.6 billion to shareholders through dividends and share purchases. In addition, we declared our normal quarterly dividend earlier this month and we continue to expect our strong financial position to support the dividend. As a reminder, Caterpillar has paid a quarterly dividend every year since 1933 through a variety of challenging business conditions. We remain committed to returning substantially our free cash flow to shareholders through the cycles. We are temporarily suspending our share repurchase program upon completion of the 10b5-1 program that we established in January. We retained the balance sheet to do M&A for compelling opportunities. Our focus on operational excellence, shorter lead times, and flexibility in manufacturing operations will allow us to react quickly to future changes and market conditions either positive or negative. The ultimate impact of the pandemic on our 2020 results remains uncertain and will be based on the duration of the virus and the magnitude of the economic impact on global demand for our products. We expect the impacts of the pandemic on our results to be more significant in the second quarter and to linger until global economic conditions improve. Due to the uncertainty associated with COVID-19 and its affects, we withdrew our financial outlook for 2020 in March 26, and are not providing one today. At our Investor Day in May 2019, we discussed our strategy based on services, expanded offering to an operational excellence. We highlighted our focus on operational excellence and our goal to be profitable and operate more efficiently through the cycles as we leveraged our foundational strengths, our competitive and flexible cost structure, lean processes, safety first culture, and quality including product reliability and durability. We described our success delivering the targets we had set out during our 2017 Investor Day and we laid out new targets based on the improvements we’ve made in structural costs that I described earlier. One was to improve annual adjusted operating margin by 300 basis points to 600 basis points versus 2010 and 2016 when margins ranged from 7% to 15%. The second was to increase annual ME&T free cash flow by $1 billion to $2 billion above our actual 2010 through 2016 performance to a range of $4 billion to $8 billion per year. However, the impact of COVID-19 on our business has been significantly more severe and chaotic than any cyclical downturn we had envisioned. Governments have closed suppliers with little or no notice impacting Caterpillar’s operational efficiency. Importantly, while we have taken actions to reduce costs, we have made a conscious decision to continue to invest in enablers of services growth and expanded offerings key elements of our strategy for long-term profitable growth. As a result, in 2020 depending upon how the pandemic unfolds while we expect our margins and free cash flows to be better than our historical performance of 2010 to 2016 it will be challenging for us to achieve the margin and cash flow targets communicated during our 2019 Investor Day. Our goal is to emerge from this crisis as an even stronger company, better positioned for long-term profitable growth. Now, let me turn the call over to Andrew for a recap of our first quarter results, short-term actions we’ve taken, and the strength of our balance sheet.
Andrew Bonfield:
Thank you, Jim and good morning everyone. I'll begin on Slide 7 with our first quarter results then I’ll discuss some of the actions we’re taking in response to the COVID-19 pandemic before turning to our cash and liquidity position. In total, sales and revenue for the first quarter declined by 21% to $10.6 billion. Operating profit decreased by 36% to $1.4 billion. Profit per share for the quarter decreased by 39% to $1.98. The decline was driven by lower volume as the cost reductions taken to mitigate the pandemic were offset by the impacts of the higher tax rate and negative currency movements. This year's quarter included a $0.38 per share re-measurement gain that resulted from the settlement of an international pension obligation. Last year's quarter included the $0.31 benefit from a discreet tax item. As you see on Slide 8, the results this quarter were up primarily driven by volume. Currency and price had a small impact, but volume decreased sales by $2.6 billion. The volume decline reflected weaknesses in end-user demand coupled with changes in dealer inventories. Geographically sales declines were led by North America and Asia Pacific. Machine sales to users, including construction industries and resource industries decreased by 17% for the quarter, while energy and transportation sales to users decreased by 12%. You may recall that we expected a decline of 4% to 9% for the year with a stronger second half. Nevertheless, first quarter sales to users where below our expectations. Demand in Asia Pacific was weaker than we expected, including a direct impact from COVID-19 on sales to users in China. In January, we indicated that we expected a small seasonal build of dealer inventory in the first quarter. Dealers increased their inventories by about 100 million this quarter, compared with an increase of – in dealer inventory is of $1.3 billion in the first quarter of 2019. This resulted on a $1.2 billion swing in revenues, which was nearly half of our sales decline. Also, it is important to note that we reduced shipments to dealers in the quarter because of the lower sales to users. Order backlog increased by about $400 million since year-end, again following our normal seasonal pattern. Compared with the year ago, backlog was down by $2.8 billion. As I’ve said before, I view our retail sales data as a better indicator of demand than backlog and whilst there is a lag in sales to users, I believe that data better represents underlying customer demand for machines and engines. Moving to Slide 9, operating profits for the first quarter fell by 36% to $1.4 billion. Volume declines where the main driver of the $803 million decrease in operating profit. Operating margins fell by 320 basis points. Favorable short-term incentive compensation expense and lower manufacturing costs only partially offset the impact of the lower volume. For comparison, incentive compensation expense in last year's first quarter was $220 million. Now, I’ll discuss the individual segments results for the first quarter. Starting on Slide 10, first quarter sales of energy and transportation declined by 17% to $4.3 billion, driven by 24% decline in oil and gas sales. Demand for reciprocating engines in North America slowed significantly as oil prices fell. Within oil and gas, solar sales remain steady with the prior year's first quarter. Power generation sales weakened as well, primarily in Asia Pacific and North America. Industrial and transportation sales both decreased. Profit for the segment decreased by 28%, driven by lower volume, partially offset by the lower short-term incentive compensation expense. The segment's operating margin declined by 320 basis points to 13.8%. As shown on Slide 11, resource industries sales decreased by 24% in the first quarter to $2.1 billion. Changes in dealer inventories and lower end-user demand drove first quarter sales decline. Dealer inventories decreased in the first quarter of this year after increasing in the same period of 2019. We experienced lower end-user demand across most of the industries we serve. Specific to mining, sales were lower as miners remain disciplined in their CapEx deployment amid commodity volatility. However, fleet age is the highest since we began tracking it and utilization rates remain high. While we expect that this current uncertainty may delay fleet replacements, we remain positive in mining prospects in the medium and long-term. In addition, we saw declines in heavy construction and quarry in aggregates, particularly in North America. During the first quarter, Newmont's Boddington became the first gold mine to move completely to autonomous hauling. We expect to begin shipping Newmont the first of its Caterpillar 793F autonomous trucks next year. Currently Caterpillar has 282 trucks running autonomously using Cat Command for hauling. Recall that Resource Industries' profit margin in the first quarter of 2019 was very high as we saw the benefits from double-digit volume growth and favorable price realization. Lower volume is a primary driver of the 47% profit decrease. That resulted in 630 basis point decrease in the segment's profit margin, which finished at 14.6%. Now turning to Slide 12. For Construction Industries, sales decreased by 27% to $4.3 billion. The lower volume was driven by lower end-user demand and a change in dealer inventory movements. Sales to users declined by 18%, compared with the prior year, including a 28% decrease in Asia-Pacific, driven by China. Although dealers increased inventories during the quarter, the increase was much lower than in the prior period. This had a particularly noticeable impact on sales in North America. The segment's first quarter profit decreased by 41%, due to the volume decrease and negative mix. Lower short-term incentive compensation expense and favorable material and period cost provided a slight offset. The margin declined by 360 basis points to 14.9%. Moving to Slide 13, financial products revenue decreased by 4% to $814 million on lower average earning assets. Profitability decreased by 50% in the first quarter to $105 million led by the mark-to-market impacts on equity securities in the insurance services portfolio. Cat Financial has taken important steps to support our dealers and customers during this challenging time. As shown on Slide 14, we launched customer care programs in all regions allowing customers to apply for payment relief through a simplified and streamlined process. It’s an approach we’ve learned from helping customers of the natural disasters. Typically, we provide principal and interest deferral for 90 days. Interest continues to accrue and the deferred payments added to the end of the loan. When we took similar actions in 2009 there was a noticeable boost in customer loyalty. Past dues did increase in the quarter to 4.13%, and we increased our loan-loss reserve moderately this quarter due to elevated risk associated with COVID-19. However, there are two points to keep in mind. First, most of our customers went into the downturn financially healthy, and current on their loans. I'll provide you with the comparison. Past dues in both North America and China, at the end of 2019 were 1.3%, whereas at the start of the financial crisis, past dues in those regions where 4.3% and 8.5% respectively. Second, our loans are secured by machines. These are working assets and are critical to our customers businesses, which means they normally prioritize payments to Cat Financial. From a funding perspective, the strong action from central banks around the world means we are maintaining a broad and diverse mix of global liquidity sources, including access to global commercial paper and debt financing. On a positive note, our new business volume rose 17% quarter-over-quarter in North America, and was flat across all regions as we continue to provide financial solutions to qualified customers around the globe. Turning to cash flow. ME&T free cash flow for the quarter was slightly positive was lower than last year. Lower profits, as well as higher Caterpillar inventory levels, which increased from the year-end, were partly offset by benefits from lower short-term incentive compensation payouts. The first quarter is typically our weakest of the year from a cash flow perspective, due to the payout of annual short-term incentive. We paid out approximately $700 million in short-term incentive compensation this quarter about half the amount paid in 2019. Caterpillar inventory levels rose as we brought in production stores in anticipation of higher production levels to the quarter. We will now work these down. Now, turning to Slide 15. As Jim mentioned, the pandemic and its impacts were unprecedented in their speed, depth, and level of complexity. Here is more color on some of the actions we have taken thus far. From a demand perspective, we’ve executed business continuity plans and work to optimize availability in areas where demand remains relatively strong, such as for parks. We are managing our production by segment to ensure we do not over produce while as we take care of our dealers and customer needs. We are adjusting our workforce by facility and by segment. From a stewardship perspective, we have completed a scenario analysis aiming to ensure that we’re prepared for different potential lengths and depth of this pandemic. We've also taken steps to strengthen our cash position and I’ll describe more about those in a moment whilst reducing capital expenditures and delaying R&D projects with less visible returns. From a cost-control perspective, we reduced discretionary expenses, including consulting, travel, and entertainment. Given the COVID-19 environment we suspended 2020-based salary increases, and short-term incentive compensation plans for many employees and all our senior executives. We will continue to look for ways to make our cost structure more flexible and competitive. Turning to our suppliers, we will keep a closer eye on their financial health as well. In the event that a supplier faces financial distress, we will identify solutions to support them whilst also ensuring supply for Caterpillar's products. In particular, our suppliers have access to working capital support through a partnership with one of our third party banks. This can provide quick access to cash flow to help them cover their payment commitments all at no risk to Caterpillar. Separately, as we stated last quarter, in addition to a normal restructuring programs, we continue to address our challenged products those that don't meet our goals for OPACC. We recently began a contemplation process that could potentially result in the closing of two mining facilities in Germany. We have also taken an impairment charge against one of the other challenged products. By addressing these challenged products, we can move forward with a slightly smaller portfolio and deliver a higher level of performance, including better margins and better cash flows. Meanwhile, we continue to strive ongoing cost reduction efforts, including preparing for the outsourcing of certain back office functions and launching a program to reduce our procurement cost, although as we said in January, these benefits will be more impactful in 2021. Let’s turn to Slide 16 and while we aren’t providing profit per share guidance I’ll talk about a few key thoughts for 2020. We remain focused on working with dealers to optimize their inventory levels. Our expectation, the decline in dealer inventory by the year-end, will be at the higher-end of our prior range, which was $1.1 billion to $1.5 billion. We now anticipate a higher tax rate in 2020 as well due to changes in the expected geographic mix of profits and the impact of certain U.S. tax provisions on non-U.S. income. As you model the second quarter, please remember that dealer inventory grew by $500 million in the second quarter last year setting up a different comparison in the short-term. Also Jim said, the impact of the virus will be greater in the second quarter. All-in-all, the situation remains very fluid, until it becomes clearer we do not anticipate being able to provide guidance as per our normal practice. Turning to Slide 17, I’ll touch on our capital allocation and our cash and liquidity position. We recently declared annual and quarterly dividend. Due to uncertainties associated with COVID-19, we temporarily suspended our share repurchase program in mid-April upon completion of the 10b51 program that we established in January. We said at our Investor Day in May 2019 that we will return substantially all our free cash flow to shareholders through dividends and more consistent share repurchases. In the first quarter, we returned $1.6 billion to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases. We ended the first quarter with a strong financial profile, including $7.1 billion in enterprise cash. Given the environment, we have had incremental $3.9 billion short-term credit facility in addition to our existing $10.5 billion revolving credit facility. Both of these liquidity resources remain undrawn. In addition, we’ve registered the $4.1 billion in commercial paper support programs, now available in the United States and Canada, which could provide supplemental liquidity should the need arise. After the quarter-end, we leveraged our strong balance sheet to raise $2 billion of incremental cash by issuing bonds at very attractive rates. Specifically, we issued $800 million in 10-year notes at 2.6% and $1.2 billion in 30-year bonds at 3.25%, the same coupon as our 2019 debt issuance. We currently have $11.2 billion in long-term debt with no maturities until 2021. Also, we’re not required to make contributions to the U.S. pension plans for the foreseeable future. Following meetings with the credit rating agencies earlier this month, we retain our strong credit ratings. All of this gives us confidence in our ability to weather the storm and emerge from it an even stronger company. So finally, let’s turn to Slide 18 and recap today’s key points. We have a strong financial position and are confident in our ability to continue serving our global customers during this difficult time. Our enterprise cash on hand is $7.1 billion and we have a total of $20.5 billion in available liquidity. We remain committed to returning substantially all our free cash flow through dividends and repurchases through the cycle, including $1.6 billion returned in the first quarter. We’re actively monitoring customer demand and working closely with dealers on their inventory needs. Our factories remain agile, leveraging lean principles. We continue to manage our operations to respond to positive or negative changes in demand. Our strategy is unchanged, focusing on operational excellence, services, and expanded offerings. We are energized by our role as a company that supports from the critical infrastructure enabling the transportation of essentials such as food and medicine and satisfying global needs for energy. And once again, we thank our employees for how well they have been navigating this global pandemic and serving our customers. With that, I’ll hand it over to the operator to start the Q&A session.
Jennifer Driscoll:
Jacqueline?
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from Rob Wertheimer from Melius Research. Your line is open.
Rob Wertheimer:
Thank you and good morning everybody. I think some of us have already started the sort of trend towards low end or below some of your 2019 margin targets just given the uncertainty with the buyers. I’d be curious to hear what, among the various uncertainties, may have kick you off that trend, whether it's aftermarket falling further you thought or mining doing something. And then I just – I wanted to see if you could talk about the trade-offs you are choosing to make. Some companies have done salary cuts, temporary or otherwise. You're choosing to continue to focus on investment and growth, and I’d like to hear the positive trade-offs you expect to see from that and whether you might return to cutting more if you need to? Thanks.
Jim Umpleby:
Yes, good morning Rob. Thanks for your question. The first part of your question about margin targets really comes down to the chaotic nature of this downturn. It was not a normal cyclical downturn. So, really there wasn't so much a downturn in one area of our business versus another, it’s just the way it happened. So government shut down suppliers with little or no notice, which had an impact on our operational efficiency. Now we’re continuing to serve our customers and work our way through it by redirecting things, but it really has created havoc with our manufacturing operations that we’ve overcome, but it’s not again a normal cyclical downturn. And as we’ve looked at the various levers we could pull, we are striking a balance that we think is appropriate between short-term performance and investment for the long-term. We have taken a number of actions to reduce discretionary costs, and one of the things I will remind you of is, I mentioned in my remarks as we really have managed the business differently during the last 3, 3.5 years, we kept our period costs flat and our salaried management headcount flat between the end of 2016 and the end of 2019 even though our sales went up 40%. And we talked a lot in our Investor Day presentations about the fact that we’re driving to produce higher absolute margins and higher absolute cash flow at all points in the cycle compared to that historical performance between 2010 and 2016, and we still intend to do that. Just – but, again given the chaotic nature of this downturn what’s happening with suppliers, we're saying that it will be challenging for us to achieve those new targets that we established in May 2019, but we do expect absolute margins and cash flow to be higher, and I believe our strategy will serve us well during these times. Cash is obviously king in this environment, and the fact that we will not incur large amounts of severance costs, with large restructuring, I think will serve us well. So, the fact that we maintain cost and headcount between end of 2016 and 2019 I think again positions us very well.
Rob Wertheimer:
Thank you. And for clarity, has that supply chain disruption seem to have reached temporary maximum or is it still rising or ongoing?
Jim Umpleby:
Yes, we’re working our way through it. I mean, obviously the situation – it’s geographic – the situation in China has obviously improved as the pandemic has lessened in that country, and so all of our facilities are operating in China again and our suppliers are doing much better in China as well, but it’s a rolling kind of situation, so depending on how the pandemic unfolds across the world, but again we are finding ways to continue to serve our customers, continue to ship products and parts, our dealers are supporting their customers, but it is making it more challenging and it’s having impact on our operational efficiency as you would expect.
Rob Wertheimer:
Thank you.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] Your next question comes from Mig Dobre from Robert Baird. Your line is open.
Mircea Dobre:
Yes, thank you. Good morning everyone. Just to maybe follow-up on Rob’s question there, as you look at the second quarter, you provided some color and detail there, but maybe you can out it – the second quarter in – within the context of the full year, is it fair to assume that this is maybe the most challenging quarter from a production standpoint or do you sort of foresee these effects lingering beyond the second quarter given, you know, the changes in backlog and what you're seeing in terms of demand? Thanks.
Jim Umpleby:
From a financial performance perspective, we certainly expect the second quarter to be weaker than the first quarter, and as we said we believe that the impact – the financial impact on Caterpillar will linger as long as the pandemic continues until those effects wear off. In terms of trying to quantify or give you description of Q2, Q3, Q4 in terms of our operations, it really is a fluid situation, so it’s very difficult for me to make that judgment. But again, we’re finding ways to work our way through it.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Jamie Cook from Credit Suisse. Your line is open.
Jamie Cook:
Hi, good morning. I guess my question centers around dealer inventory. You cited that the declines will be at the higher end of the range that you provided last quarter, but I guess why not more significant and is the goal still to be able to produce in line with retail as you exit 2020? So that goal I guess, you know, could we see bigger declines in that or maybe you could just comment on what you saw in April to support what we’re saying about the dealer inventory declines? Thank you.
Andrew Bonfield:
Yes, thanks Jamie. It’s Andrew, and good morning. So, yes, obviously what we’re pointing to is we had the range at the – in January of $1 billion to $1.5 billion. Based on what we see from a demand perspective, obviously we expect that to be at the higher end of that range. Always remember, when dealers are looking out, they’re making their plans based on what they’re seeing going forward. So, it depends what happens in 2021 and what their viewpoint is of 2021, which is far too early as Jim just said, for us to have any view even beyond the end of this quarter that will determine their final number. So, yes, it may be more flexible, and obviously, depending on what the outlook is, that may determine whether they would like to go lower, but we’re just pointing out we would expect, at the minimum, it would be at the higher end of that range.
Jamie Cook:
And sorry, can you comment on trends you saw in April, if you're able to?
Andrew Bonfield:
I mean it’s really too early to say. I mean obviously, you know, we are still in April, we don't have April result yet. You know with remote working, it’s hard to get data, but obviously, you know, we are expecting that April will be a challenging month and just purely given the lockdown impact and the impacts are – particularly things like oil and gas. Remember, we are in a situation where for reciprocating engines, oil and gas prices have been negative in the month.
Jamie Cook:
Okay, thank you. I hope everyone stays healthy.
Jim Umpleby:
Same to you Jamie, thank you.
Jennifer Driscoll:
You too.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Ann Duignan from JP Morgan. Your line is open.
Ann Duignan:
Thank you and good morning.
Andrew Bonfield:
Good morning.
Ann Duignan:
Maybe on the oil and gas, can you talk about your expectations for permanently impaired – impairments in that business and talk about the impact of oil and gas across your various businesses, we’ll say, oil sands and resource and construction equipment and the construction segment, you know, if you could just give us what your contemplating in terms of the longer term outlook in those businesses and how weaker oil and gas may impact you more permanently?
Jim Umpleby:
Yes. I’ll start with the – maybe the short-term impact and I’ll talk about some of the longer term. On the short-term, obviously, that we’ll have an – the oil and gas decline, particularly in WTI, will have an impact on our reciprocating engine businesses for North America and things like oil servicing, drilling, gas compression. And so, we – you know we went into the year expecting that our 2020 recip oil and gas sales would be lower. And now obviously, we're expecting they would be even lower than that. So our solar turbines business, mid-stream is holding up well. You should stop and think about the last downturn we had I oil and gas, the solar turbines compression business continued to hang in there, and of course the large part of solar’s sales are services related and the turbines continue to run even during low oil prices. So that provides a cushion there. I don’t anticipate a permanent impairment in our business, you know the old, I believe if it is my fifth, I think oil cycle in my 40-year career. And when things are really good people think it will never get worse again, and when things are really bad, they think it will never get better again. I do believe that the market will recover at some point. It might take a while, but I don’t perceive there will be any kind of permanent impairment on our business.
Ann Duignan:
Not even in non-oil and gas like oil sands?
Jim Umpleby:
Yes, there certainly could be an impact in terms of a short-term impact on our business, but again, I don’t see anything major that is significant that will be a permanent impairment on our business. And yes about construction as well, so we do sell a certain amount of construction equipment in North America that is related to oil and gas, so obviously that business will be slow as well.
Ann Duignan:
Okay, thank you. I appreciate that.
Jim Umpleby:
Thanks Ann.
Jennifer Driscoll:
You’re welcome Ann.
Operator:
Your next question comes from David Raso from Evercore. Your line is open.
David Raso:
Hi, good morning. Related to your comments, chaotic nature, the decremental margins, the first quarter at 29% were a little better than I would have thought. I assume the second quarter with a shutdown to be more challenging, but can you up us a little bit how to think about the decrementals versus you saw in the first quarter and related to that Cat nature question related to the margins, what are local and national governments telling you about the reopening. How are you planning for those reopening, things that we should be thoughtful about on your ability to ramp up a bit as things open?
Jim Umpleby:
Maybe, I’ll your second part of your question first, so the closures we’ve had are temporary and they are due to a combination of supply chain constraints, weak customer demand and government mandates. So, many of the facilities that have – that were closed have reopened, we’re probably going to close some that aren’t reopen now again. We look at the customer demand and we look at supply chain constraints. Even in the non-pandemic situation, we sometimes have facility closures just to align production with customer demand. So, this is not new for us. We understand how to bring facilities up, so we really don't see a big issue there. And so, we’ve been able to work with local governments and implemented the guidelines that they have provided to us and also best practices by authorities around the world in term social distancing. We’ve done things like staggered shifts. We’ve extended lunch hours. We – and we’re taking temperatures. We’re doing a whole variety of things that are – that have been recommended as best practices. So, we’re continuing to implement those as they come out. And as I mentioned earlier, we’re really focused on achieving higher margins at each point in the cycle, compared to what we did between 2010 and 2016. And so, rather than think about it from an incremental and decremental perspective, what we laid out at our two Investor Days in 2017 and 2019, was our ability to achieve higher absolute margins and absolute cash flows at each point in the cycle. And as I mentioned earlier, I believe that will serve us well in a period where cash is king.
Andrew Bonfield:
And David, good morning, this is Andrew. Just to add to that, obviously, the volume decline in the first quarter was somewhere around about 20%. Obviously, operating leverage is still the biggest factor in what your incrementals and decrementals would be if you think about it in that terms because leverage is the single biggest factor. Also just remind you that obviously in the first quarter last year, the actual amount of short-term incentive compensation was slightly higher than the average for the remainder of the year. So that will be slightly negative on margins going forward because obviously you won’t have as much offset against that as we go through the remaining quarters of the year, so it will vary a little bit.
David Raso:
So, to clarify what you're saying, a little bit related to last May’s Analyst Meeting, whatever we think the revenues will be this year versus history, similar revenues, you would expect the margins to be higher be it, you know, 2016 when equipment sales were $36 billion or 2017 when they were $42 billion, $43 billion, what you’re saying is, you expect your margins to be higher at the same revenues this year versus then, is that fair?
Jim Umpleby:
That is correct. That's what I said.
David Raso:
Alright, thank you very much. I appreciate it.
Andrew Bonfield:
Thank you, David.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Adam Uhlman from Cleveland Research. Your line is open.
Adam Uhlman:
Hi, good morning, everyone. Hope you’re all staying healthy. I had a question about the service sales, could you explain your thoughts on what you’re seeing there, how the revenues are holding up and with the growth efforts that you have in place, do you think you could keep the sales declines there in something like a mid-single range? Or does it get dragged down a bunch like the new equipment sales? Thanks.
Andrew Bonfield:
Hi, Adam. It’s Andrew. Actually, you know the services sales in the first quarter were down marginally, part of that was due to inventory movement’s year-on-year. Last year, we saw a small build in services and parts revenues in [indiscernible] channels, and obviously, a slight decrease down. Obviously, we anticipate that services revenues will hold up better than original equipment revenues as we go through the cycle. Obviously, you know, if you look at the history that has always been the way. This stage is too early to predict what percentage they will change by, but, obviously – and it’s going to depend on customer-by-customer, where they are open, are they able to use – what machine utilization rates are and so forth. So, we need to see how all that pans out and get a few more data points before we start making predictions in that regard.
Adam Uhlman:
Great, thanks.
Operator:
And your next question comes from Steven Fisher from UBS. Your line is open.
Steven Fisher:
Thanks, good morning. Just wanted to ask you about pricing, is it seemed to be a little be more resilient than I would have expected really across the board, but particularly in E&T. So, maybe can you just give us a sense of where that strength came from in E&T and how sustainable you think it is and then maybe just some other comments about competitive dynamics in the other various segments?
Andrew Bonfield:
Yes, Steven. It’s Andrew. So, obviously overall, if you look at pricing, it was negative in the quarter. Most of that was mostly in construction industries and that was really geo mix rather than actually pricing per say although we did see some competitive pricing pressure in China. Just again to remind you, geo mix does come to which does distort the pricing mix, so obviously if you do see favorable sales in different regions that does have an impact on the mix. So, we have don't go down to that level of granularity by discussing by segment, but generally it has been – it has held up. We did put pricing increases through on 1st of January, but the geo mix was what we were expecting competitive position and Asia-Pacific hasn't changed.
Steven Fisher:
Thanks, but in E&T it was actually up, so I was just curious, I mean…
Jim Umpleby:
Yes. Well that’s relating to the price increase – that is the price increase across that was put through in the 1st of January.
Andrew Bonfield:
And also in the E&T things are going to get lumpy as well. So, [indiscernible].
Steven Fisher:
Okay. Thanks very much.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Ross Gilardi from Bank of America. Your line is open.
Ross Gilardi:
Hi, good morning guys.
Jim Umpleby:
Hi, Russ.
Andrew Bonfield:
Good morning, Russ.
Ross Gilardi:
I had a question on capital allocation, in the presentation you stated you are going to return all of your cash, but yet you are suspending the buyback program for now, does that mean that free cash flow is unlikely to exceed the 2.3 billion that gets paid out in the dividend this year? And then the follow-up question to that is, are you still committed to raising the dividend via a high single-digit percentage for the next four years given this unforeseeable situation that you couldn't have predicted when you made that commitment? Thanks.
Jim Umpleby:
Yes, so I think, I’ll answer the dividend question first and I will put you back to Andrew. So, obviously the dividend is a priority for us. You saw that we raised our dividend already this year even in this situation. We are not making a prediction as to what we’ll do with the dividend for the rest of the year. Obviously, it’s a priority and we feel comfortable in our ability to support the dividend, but in terms of future increases we’ll keep you posted. It’s obviously a board decision and we’ll make a recommendation to the board later in the year and we’ll keep you posted.
Andrew Bonfield:
Yes, Russ and as far as free cash flow, so if you look in the first quarter, we actually paid out $1.6 billion if you take the buyback into account plus the dividend, if you then extrapolated by across the remaining three quarters of dividend that implies free cash flow of over – around about $3.5 billion for the full year or 3.5 billion of distribution to shareholders for the remainder of the year. Question at the moment is, while we are uncertain as to what free cash flow will be, we’ve decided to put a pause on the buybacks because obviously we’re not yet certain whether we are in that position whether we are distributing substantially all or maybe even slightly more than our free cash flow to the – sort of that’s the uncertainty which causes us to put a suspension. As things become clearer, we’ll make decisions. We are in strong financial position. As I say, we had $7.1 billion of cash on the balance sheet at the end of the first quarter and if you remember last year we actually distributed slightly more than our free cash flow for the year.
Ross Gilardi:
Thanks very much.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] Your next question comes from Jerry Revich from Goldman Sachs. Your line is open.
Jerry Revich:
Yes, hi good morning everyone.
Jim Umpleby:
Good morning, Jerry.
Jerry Revich:
Andrew I’m wondering if you could expand on your prepared comments on the restructuring program, presumably the range of restructuring spending is wider than we were contemplating a quarter ago, can you just expand what the range of investment could be this year and what kind of payback periods are we targeting and for the discontinued product lines, what are the plans to repost those product lines to provide continuity for your dealers? Thanks.
Andrew Bonfield:
So, first of all, our expectation at the beginning of the year was that we would have somewhere in the region of $100 million to $200 million of normal restructuring expense and we put up a placeholder in place for the $200 million of restructuring for the challenged products. At this stage, we don't see that it’s going beyond that at this stage, but that’s obviously we’ll update you and keep you posted as time goes on. Obviously, again, the timing of these issues – timing of these actions is a significant factor on the charge for the year. So, for example as we said in my remarks, we started the contemplation process in Germany, that may take a while and that will determine how much we charge in the financial year relating to those challenged products. Similarly, the impairment was taken along the lines of actually the asset, we do view the asset as being impaired in value and sort so the action we took that action in Q1. So, we’ll keep you posted. Obviously, and make sure if we do believe it’s outside that range we will update at this stage, we’re still within the original range we talked about in January.
Jim Umpleby:
And maybe just to add additional comment about cost and we continually ask our managers to focus on cost to find ways to be more efficient and obviously during this environment we vamp that up, so whether or not that falls into a restructuring bucket regardless we are really focusing on finding ways to be more efficient and reduce costs.
Jerry Revich:
And the dealer product line part of the question?
Jennifer Driscoll:
What are the plans to replace the product lines he said? Of any exited businesses?
Andrew Bonfield:
The point is, actually we haven't made decisions to exit any of those businesses at this stage. So that’s why as far as dealers are concerned, obviously it’s not an issue for them at this stage.
Jerry Revich:
Okay, thank you.
Jim Umpleby:
And there are ways to restructure without exiting. So, just leave it there.
Operator:
And your next question comes Courtney Yakavonis from Morgan Stanley. Your line is open.
Courtney Yakavonis:
Hi, thanks. Just wanted to Bob, Jim with some of your comments on the positive or the medium, long-term positive outlook for mining, but you seem some uncertainty in the near-term and more restrictive CapEx from some of the miners so can you just comment on that? And then I think you did see dealer inventories decline in resources this quarter, so if you can just help us understand how big of an impact that is and how big the overhang in resources, the pressure on the heavy construction and quarry in aggregates side? Thanks.
Andrew Bonfield:
Sorry, Courtney it’s Andrew and good morning. On the dealer inventory side, actually the dealer inventory reductions quarter-on-quarter where the most significant impact on RI sales, it was a small majority of it. We don't disclose a specific number, but it was over half of the decline in revenues for the quarter.
Jim Umpleby:
And maybe just a comment on mining, it wouldn't be surprising if the pandemic would have an impact on our mining business short-term. However, based on the state of the industry, the replacement cycle, we still feel positive about mining in the medium and long-term?
Courtney Yakavonis:
Okay thanks. And then just, can you give us any more color on just the geographic discrepancies you are seeing between North America and Europe, I think some of your peers have talked about European a little bit weaker because of some of the more or worst restrictions over there, but seemed like Europe has actually being holding up fairly all for you based on your retail sales data. So, if you can just share on what you’re seeing there in April or not in April, just in general?
Andrew Bonfield:
Yes, I think Courtney there are a couple of factors. One, which is obviously is dependent how strong the comparative period was, and if you remember last year Europe was not particularly strong in the first quarter of last year. So, I think that is why year-on-year some of that data looks a little bit better in Europe. On the retail side, obviously, we’re starting to see in the U.S. where we obviously had a very strong, particularly non-residential construction cycle that has started to diminish. We hadn't seen the strength in non-residential construction in Europe, which is another factor.
Jim Umpleby:
This is Jim, just wanted to make a statement, I have been informed that I mistakenly used the word raised when I talked about the dividend earlier this year, we did not raise a dividend, we maintain the dividend. So, my apologies for that mistake.
Jennifer Driscoll:
And we now have time for one more question before we go to Jim's wrap-up.
Operator:
Your final question is from Joe O'Dea from Vertical Research. Your line is open.
Joe O'Dea:
Hi, good morning. Can you just comment on financial services with past dues up about 100 bips sequentially and allowances up 20 bips and your comfort level overall with where that allowance figure stands, and I think most importantly your thoughts on the direction of provisions over the next quarter or two whether it’s more likely that those provisions are moving up before they start to move down?
Andrew Bonfield:
Hi Joe, it’s Andrew and obviously I've meant to cover this a little bit in my remarks, but the – if you look at the 4.13% of past dues at the end of the quarter, significant drivers of that were the legacy Cat Power Financial portfolio, and then also some hot spots around Middle East and Latin America, both of which were issues which we were dealing with historically and have been factors were actually the reserve has been quite significant in the past. So, those are ongoing issues, which we’re dealing with. As I mentioned in my remarks, actually our customers came in to the crisis in a very healthy position. So past dues in North America at the end of last year were 1.3%. At the end of the time of the financial crisis they were 4.3% so that gives you an indication of the health of that customer base and in China they were 1.3% versus 8.3% in the financial crisis. So again, that is a very different scenario. We did modestly increase the reserves in the quarter, obviously the difference is obviously, we now have the CECL process that we are required to reserve against. The reason why our loan reserves will be lower than you would see in many other financial institutions is because the security we have over the loan, which is the loan is secured on the machine itself and that reduces your risk from a write-off perspective. So that is again, gives us comfort, yes we do expect, we would inevitably will see some write-offs as we go through the remainder of the year. We do think that will be a lot lower than it would have been historically.
Joe O'Dea:
Thank you.
Jennifer Driscoll:
And I'll turn it back to Jim for closing remarks.
Jim Umpleby:
Well thank everyone for your questions. I just have a wrap-up here. Caterpillar has been an operation for 95 years, and we faced it, overcome many challenges. We have a very strong financial position which we described to you this morning. We’re continuing to pursue our strategy focused on services, expanded offerings and operational excellence. Once again I’d like to thank my Caterpillar colleagues around the world for staying focused on their safety and for working with our dealers to deliver products and services that enable our customers to fight the good fight against COVID-19. Our goal is to emerge from the pandemic even stronger than before, better position for long-term profitable growth. Thank you again and with that, I’ll turn it back to Jennifer for some closing reminders.
Jennifer Driscoll:
Thanks Jim and Andrew and everyone who joined us today. If you missed any portion of the call, you can catch it by replay online later this morning. We will post a transcript on the investor relations website within one business day. If you have any questions, please reach out to Rob or me. You can reach Rob at [email protected]. I'm at [email protected]. The investor relations general phone number is 309-675-4549. And now let me ask Jacqueline to conclude our call.
Operator:
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Caterpillar 4Q 2019 Analyst Conference. At this time, all participants have been placed on a listen-only mode and we will open the floor for your questions and comments after the presentation. It is now my pleasure to turn the floor over to your host, Jennifer Driscoll. Ma'am, the floor is yours.
Jennifer Driscoll:
Thank you, Paul. Good morning, everyone. Welcome to Caterpillar's fourth quarter earnings call. Joining us today are Jim Umpleby, Chairman of the Board and CEO; Andrew Bonfield, CFO; and Kyle Epley, Vice President of our Global Finance Services division; and Rob Rengel, Senior IR Manager. Our call today expands on our earnings release which we issued earlier this morning. You'll find slides to accompany today's presentation along with the release in the Investors section of caterpillar.com, under Events & Presentations. For retail stats, look at our 8-K filed a few minutes after that. As shown on slide 2, any forward-looking statements we make today are subject to risks and uncertainty. We also make assumptions that could cause our actual results to be different than the information we discuss today. Please refer to our recent SEC filings and the forward-looking statements reminder in today's news release for details on factors that individually or combined could cause our actual results to vary materially from our forecasts. Let me remind you that Caterpillar has copyrighted this call. We prohibit use of any portion of it without our prior written approval. As previously indicated, today we're reporting adjusted profit per share in addition to our US GAAP results. Our adjusted profit per share for the fourth quarter excludes our pension and OPEB mark-to-market adjustment for the remeasurement of pension and other postemployment benefit plans. The adjustment was $0.65 per share in the fourth quarter or $0.64 per share for the fiscal year. Our adjusted profit per share for the full year also excludes the $0.31 discrete tax items from the first quarter of 2019. In the 2018 fiscal year, our adjusted profit per share excludes restructuring cost in addition to both tax related and pension OPEB mark-to-market adjustments. our US GAAP-based guidance for 2020 profit per share includes estimated restructuring costs for the year and continues to exclude pension and OPEB mark-to-market impacts. Now, let's turn to slide three and turn the call over to Jim for his perspective on 2019 and our outlook for 2020.
James Umpleby :
Thanks, Jennifer. Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining Caterpillar's fourth-quarter earnings call. I plan to cover three topics this morning. First, I'll summarize our fourth quarter and full-year 2019 results. I'll also provide an update on the progress of our enterprise strategy as well as some color on how the year ended versus our investor day targets. I'll finish with our expectations for 2020. I'm pleased with the way your team is executing, notwithstanding the difficult economic environment which led to a decline in sales to users during the fourth quarter. I'll describe this segment later in the call, but just to give you a brief overview. Sales to users for all three segments were lower than our expectations. In Resource Industries, we continue to see strong quoting activity in mining as most commodities remain at investable levels, but customers are being cautious due to global economic conditions. While we experienced a decline in mining sales in the fourth quarter, we continue to believe there will be a gradual recovery in our sales to mining customers. Our mining sales are lumpy, so there can be significant variation between quarters. Energy & Transportation was a mixed bag due to the diversity of our end markets. North American onshore oil and gas activity remained depressed as we expected. Both solar and rail had a solid fourth-quarter. In Construction Industries, end user demand has softened, particularly in North America. As our earnings guidance indicates, we see some slowing across all three primary segments. We are ready to respond quickly to positive or negative developments in our end markets. We're doing what we said we'd do at our Investor Day in May by achieving our financial targets, continuing to invest in services and expanded offerings, and returning cash more consistently to shareholders. Sales and revenues for the fourth quarter declined 8%, which is our assumption of down mid-single digits. Volume, primarily caused by changes in dealer inventory, drove a majority of the decline. Dealer inventory for the quarter decreased $700 million compared to an increase of $200 million in the prior year's quarter. End user demand, which we released this morning, was also softer than we anticipated, down about 4% versus our assumption of flat end user demand for the quarter. Price realization and currency were unfavorable for the quarter as well. Our fourth-quarter operating profit decreased 2%, driven primarily by the lower volume. We increased our operating profit margin percent through disciplined cost control and stronger results from Financial Products. For the fourth quarter, adjusted profit per share was $2.63 compared with $2.55 in 2018. Turning to slide four, sales and revenues for the full year declined about 2%, mainly driven by the movements in dealer inventory. Dealer inventory increased $800 million in 2019 versus an increase of $2.3 billion in 2018. End user demand increased about 2% for the year. The other two sales drivers – namely, favorable price realization and unfavorable currency – essentially offset each other. For the full year, operating profit was flat on nearly $1 billion lower sales and revenues. The volume reduction was offset by strong cost control. Favorable price realization more than offset manufacturing cost increases. Turning to profit per share, we ended 2019 at an adjusted profit per share of $11.06 compared with $11.22 for 2018. Now, I'll summarize our 2019 results versus our Investor Day targets and the progress we made this past year executing our strategy, as shown on slide 5. In operational excellence, we're pleased to report we achieved our best safety performance on record. We delivered a solid operating margin of 15.4% on $53.8 billion of sales and revenues. Our operating margin finished well within the target ranges we set at our investor day last May, which you may recall was an improvement of between 3 and 6 percentage points above the historical margins we delivered in the 2010 to 2016 period. Our free cash flow of $5.3 billion was also within our investor day target range. We returned $6.2 billion or about 115% of our 2019 free cash flow to shareholders in dividend and share repurchases. That includes the 20% dividend increase we announced at investor day which reflected our confidence in the company's ability to deliver improved cash flows through the cycles and our intention to return substantially all free cash flow to shareholders. We reduced our quarterly average diluted shares outstanding by about 9% since the first quarter of 2018. Our services revenues increased 2% and were around $18 billion in 2019. We indicated during our Investor Day in May that our path to doubling services revenues to $28 billion from our 2016 baseline would not be linear and we continue to invest in services, including expanding our digital capabilities to meet this target by 2026. Please turn to slide 6. At the center of our strategy is profitable growth. We made good progress this year on all three elements of the strategy – operational excellence, expanded offerings and services. Beginning with operational excellence, as I mentioned earlier, we achieved our best safety performance on record. Yet one injury is one too many as we want all of our employees to go home safely every day. We're proactively managing our production levels and our lead times are now at targeted levels for the majority of our products. This allows us to respond more quickly to both positive or negative changes in demand. Shorter lead times also allow our dealers to carry less inventory, which helps dampen the overall impact of economic cycles. Turning to expanded offerings, one of our most successful areas in our GC line where we've launched six new models in 2019 or 11 new models to date. These new GC products, including excavators, articulated trucks, motor graders, wheel loaders and paving products, have broadened our product line to provide customers a full range of choices when determining the best machine for their various applications. In Energy & Transportation, the team launched large generator sets that burn lean methane created as a byproduct of the mining process. The CAT G3516C uses methane that could otherwise be vented to the atmosphere, thereby reducing the mine's greenhouse gas emissions. These engines are capable of burning relatively low concentrations of methane while reliably providing the engines full power at high efficiency. Customers appreciate the value of uncompromised engine performance over a wide range of gas quality. Finally, we reached some significant milestones with autonomous solutions in 2019. We continue to believe we're at a tipping point for adoption of autonomy in mining. In 2019, the number of mining trucks running CAT's autonomous solutions rose to 275, an increase of 48% over 2018. Our autonomous solutions are now working for seven customers across 11 sites on three continents. Some customers have reported productivity benefits of up to 30% and have also reported positive enhancements to safety. Our customers are focusing on improving performance across their sites, so we've expanded our automated solutions to include a broader portfolio of trucks, drills, tractors and underground mining products. We know many of you will be in Las Vegas at ConExpo in March and at MINExpo in September. We look forward to showcasing many of our new products and services at these exhibitions. Services are a very important element of our strategy. In 2019, one of our primary goals was to improve parts availability to minimize customers' downtime. We are helping dealers better forecast customer demand through advanced analytics which enables them to improve parts availability. Services are a key differentiator for many of our businesses, particularly when we help customers avoid unplanned downtime. In 2019, we achieved our target of connecting 1 million assets by year-end. Thanks to investments we've made during the past several years, we now have one of the largest fleets of connected assets in the industries we serve. Connected products, such as CAT and non-CAT assets, provide rich data, including operating hours, location and product health, enabling customers to better manage and plan their maintenance. Having critical mass and connectivity enables us to work with customers in a very personalized way. Connecting assets also improves dealer capabilities, such as remote troubleshooting that can reduce technician time and provide increased customer uptime. We'll continue to connect new products coming out of our factories. Turning to slide 7. Today, we established 2020 profit per share guidance of $8.50 to $10 compared with our 2019 adjusted profit per share of $11.06. Our planning assumptions for machinery, energy and transportation are that dealers will reduce their inventories by about $1 billion to $1.5 billion; that end user demand will decline by about 4% to 9% compared to 2019; and that services sales will grow modestly. Global economic conditions are very fluid due to a variety of factors. We will continue to closely monitor our environment and will be ready to respond quickly to positive or negative changes in demand. Our 2020 outlook includes normal restructuring as well as a $200 million placeholder for strategic restructuring actions. We plan to address a small number of products that are not delivering sufficient OPACC and to ensure we're allocating resources to those areas with the best opportunity for future profitable growth. Meanwhile, we will continue to invest in services and expanded offerings to improve the value Caterpillar and our dealers provide to our customers. Andrew will provide more details on the outlook assumptions later in the call. Our cash flow remained strong. During 2019, we paid dividends of $2.1 billion. As we said at our 2019 Investor Day, we expect to increase our dividend by at least the high-single digits percent during 2020, continuing our heritage as a dividend aristocrat. We repurchased 4 billion of common stock in 2019. We expect continued strong cash flow in 2020 and share repurchases should be roughly similar to 2018 and 2019 levels. This is in line with our commitment to more consistently return substantially all free cash flow to shareholders. Turning to slide 8. In 2020, we continued to execute our strategy for profitable growth. In the area of expanded offerings, we plan to roll out five additional GC models this year as we continue to invest in new products. Within operational excellence, we are focused on improving our cost structure with a focus on back-office and procurement costs. Finally, in services, we will continue to invest in our digital capabilities, so we can fully leverage our connected assets and are investing in other areas such as customer-focused designs. Now, let me close by sharing our industry expectations for 2020 on slide 9. In Construction Industries, we expect slowing end user demand. In North America, while we expect stable spending on state and local infrastructure, residential and non-residential construction is expected to decline. Turning to Asia-Pacific. We expect our sales in China to be flat to down 5%. We are actively monitoring the coronavirus for any potential impact. We expect EAME construction activity will be flat to slightly up, with growth in Europe slowing and Africa and the Middle East beginning to recover from low levels. The recovery in Latin America should continue, although from a low base, led by Brazil. As a result of these conditions, we expect that dealers, particularly in North America, will further reduce their inventories. For Resource Industries, we expect end user demand to be roughly flat. In non-residential construction, we anticipate lower 2020 end user demand. In mining, we expect mid-single digit growth for end user demand as quoting activity continues to be positive and commodity prices generally remain supportive of investment. Customers remain cautious and have more flexibility on order timing due to our improved lead times. We continue to believe there will be a gradual recovery in sales to mining customers. We anticipate Resource Industries sales will be softer in the first half of 2020 with possible upside in the second half as mining confidence improves. As a result of these conditions, we expect dealers will further reduce their inventories. Turning to Energy & Transportation, we expect modestly lower overall demand. In oil and gas, we expect end user demand to weaken in North America for well servicing, recip gas compression and drilling. Oil price volatility and capital discipline by our customers are both contributing factors. Solar sales are expected to be flat to slightly up in 2020. Industrial demand is expected to decline modestly, mainly led by Europe. We expect power generation and transportation to grow modestly this year. With that, I will turn the call over to Andrew for a closer look at our financials.
Andrew Bonfield :
Thank you, Jim. And good morning, everyone. I'll begin on slide 10 with total company results for the fourth quarter. I'll cover the segment results for both the quarter and the full year, then I'll walk you through our 2020 guidance and close with some comments on cash flow and capital deployment. In total, sales and revenues for the fourth quarter declined by 8% to $13.1 billion. Operating profit decreased less than sales and was down 2% to $1.9 billion. Adjusted profit per share for the quarter increased by 3% to $2.63, mostly reflecting the benefit of the lower-than-expected tax rate. Note that this year's adjusted profit per share results include restructuring expense, whilst last year's excludes it. Mark-to-market adjustments were similar in both periods, about $470 million in 2019 and about $500 million in 2018. As you see on slide 11, sales decreased by $1.2 billion in the quarter. This result was below our expectation of a mid-single digit decrease in sales in the quarter. While price and currency was slightly unfavorable, the primary factor was a 7% decrease in volume. As we discussed in the third quarter, we expected dealers to reduce their inventories, partly due to our improved lead times which allow dealers to hold less inventory and partly due to uncertainty in the global economy, resulting from trade tensions and other factors. This morning, we released the quarter's retail sales data, which showed a decrease in retail sales to users of 4%. We had anticipated the retail sales across all three primary segments will be flat, but Construction Industry sales to users declined by 3%, Resource Industries declined by 10% and Energy & Transportation sales to users declined by 3%. This weaker-than-expected end user demand and that whilst we cut back our shipments to dealers, dealer inventories came down by $200 million less than we expected or around $700 million in the quarter. This $700 million reduction in dealer inventory compares to a $200 million increase in dealer inventories in the fourth quarter of 2019. The movement in dealer inventories together with the reduction in end user demand explain the volume decline in the quarter. Order backlog was weaker at the end of the year, down $900 million across the segments. I know many of you focus on backlog. However, I want to remind you that except for our direct businesses, mainly solar and rail, the backlog represents dealer demand. That means it takes into account dealers' view of what inventory they need to hold in addition to their expectations of end user demand. We view our retail sales data as a better indicator of demand over backlog. And whilst there is a lag, we believe retail sales data better represents underlying customer behavior. In addition to sales to users, we have other indicators of customer health. For example, we look at past use of CAT Financial which had actually improved in the quarter. That said, we saw a small uptick in repossessions of equipment in units and in dollars. Auction prices and used prices are seeing downward pressure. These factors, plus the lower retail sales, gives us a very mixed picture. We will, therefore, stay prepared for an acceleration or deceleration in demand. Moving to slide 12, operating profit for the fourth quarter fell by 2% to $1.85 billion. These figures are on a like-for-like basis as both years include restructuring expense.. Let me walk you through the changes in operating profit before discussing the changes in operating margin. Volume is the largest reason for the decline in operating profit. Price was also negative due to geographic mix and programs restarted to stimulate demand. Favorable material and freight costs were offset by adverse warranty expenses which continue to impact us. As we said in October, we have some targeted product quality issues which we're continuing to address. Favorable short-term compensation expense and better cost control had a positive impact on operating profit in the fourth quarter. Finally, Financial Products had a strong quarter too. These tailwinds more than offset the negative impact from operating margin I mentioned a moment ago. This meant that the operating margin improved by 100 basis points quarter-over-quarter. Now, let me discuss the individual segments results for the fourth quarter and full year. First on slide 13. Fourth quarter sales of Energy & Transportation declined by 5%, driven by weakness in oil and gas and lower intersegment sales, slowing demand for reciprocating engines in North America used for power gas compression applications, and lower turbine project deliveries contributed to an 11% decrease in oil and gas sales. We saw 5% increase in transportation as marine sales in the EAME improved. Power generation and industrial sales also improved slightly in the quarter. The segment's first quarter profit increased by 8%, driven by lower short-term incentive expense and lower manufacturing costs, which more than offset the impact of the volume decline. Segment operating margin improved by 240 basis points to 19.6%. For the year, Energy & Transportation sales decreased by 3%, reflecting slower sales in oil and gas and lower intersegment sales. However, segment profit remained about flat in 2019 as the lower sales volume was offset by reduced short-term incentive expense. The segment margin improved to 17.7%, an increase of 40 basis points versus 2018. Now turning to slide 14. For Construction Industries, sales decreased by 12% in fourth quarter due to lower volume. Dealers in North America and the EAME carried on adjusting their inventories. We continue to see Latin American sales increase of a low base, while Asia-Pacific Pacific remained about flat. Within Asia-Pacific, unfavorable price was mostly offset by higher volumes in a few countries. Sales in China rose in the fourth quarter, driven by dealers' desires to build inventory ahead of an earlier Chinese New Year. The segment's fourth-quarter profit margin fell by 170 basis points to 13.1%. The volume decrease and lower price realization were partially offset by savings from material costs and short-term incentive expense. The unfavorable price realization reflected changes in geographic mix that we had anticipated, including reductions in dealer inventory in North America and some programs were put in place to stimulate end user demand. On a full-year basis, Construction Industries declined by 3%. Margin expansion of 17.4%, a healthy level, yet a decrease of 60 basis points versus 2019. The decline was driven by the impacts of volume, manufacturing inefficiencies and an unfavorable mix of products, partially offset by favorable price realization. Changing to slide 15. Resource Industries sales decreased by 14% in the fourth quarter due to reductions in dealer inventories and lower end user demand. Dealers' decreased inventories in the fourth quarter of this year after increasing their inventories in the same period of 2018. The inventory reductions taken in the fourth quarter were primary related to non-residential construction to better align end-to-end user demand. Turning to mining, we've seen continue disciplined CapEx spend by miners and have experienced longer delays between deal signings and the placement of orders. Lower volume was the primary driver of the 340 basis point decrease in the segment's profit margin to 10.9% for the quarter. For the full year, Resource Industries sales were about flat. Profit margin improved by 30 basis points to 15.9% as stable price realization offset the impact of increased manufacturing costs, including high warranty expense. Moving to slide, we were pleased with the results from Financial Products, which increased its profitability by $181 million in the fourth quarter versus a challenging quarter a year ago. A lower allowance rate in 2019 was the main driver of the improvement. Past dues were down at the end of 2019 as well. The Financial Product segment's profit rose by $327 million for the full year to $832 million. Free cash flow for the quarter remained strong at $1.9 billion. We saw a significant reduction in our inventory levels in the fourth quarter as we reduce production levels in our plants. For the full year, free cash flow was $5.3 billion excluding the discretionary pension contribution made in the third quarter. Now, I'll talk about the outlook on slide 17. I will share the full-year outlook, a few key planning assumptions and some observations on phasing in 2020. We anticipate profit per share of $8.50 to $10 in 2020 compared with an adjusted $11.06 in 2019. The range reflects current uncertainty in the global economy, which is causing customers to delay or defer purchases of large capital goods. We no longer give sales guidance, but I'd like to share a few of our planning assumptions which we have used to derive our profit per share guidance for 2020. First, we're assuming lower end user demand of between 4% and 9%. We expect ME&T services revenues to increase modestly as we continue our journey towards $28 billion in 2026. The full-year guidance we put together also assumes that pricing is about flat and that dealers will decrease our inventories by between $1 billion and $1.5 billion in 2020. Keep in mind that dealers are independent entities and control their own inventories. Given the slowdown in customer demand and the increased availability of product due to lower lead times, we do expect dealers will reduce their inventory levels further. This reduction is expected to be led by Construction Industries, but will also impact Resource Industries. I'll talk a little bit more on how we expect dealer buying patterns to impact our phasing in 2020 in a moment. As Jim has said, we will make sure production is scaled to meet demand and we're ready to respond to signals from the market, positively or negatively. The top and bottom ends of the profit range roughly correspond to the top and bottom of the ranges for declines in sales to users and dealer inventories. We expect material costs to decline this year, including the impact of lower steel prices, procurement savings and lower freight. We also expect the increases in warranty costs to moderate in 2020. We're committed to doing all we can to maintain a competitive and flexible cost structure and we're tightly controlling discretionary spending. As part of that, we're moving toward the outsourcing of some of our back office functions, which is expected to produce run rate savings beginning in the fall. We're also working to improve our procurement processes as a way to reduce direct and indirect spending. These changes are not immediate as we realize benefits after new contracts begin and better prices flow through into inventory. Last year, restructuring expense was $236 million, slightly above our expectation. This year, we expect normalized level of restructuring expense. In addition, we're looking at taking strategic restructuring actions relating to certain products that are not realizing sufficient OPACC. We put a $200 million placeholder for that in our guide and we'll keep you updated through the year as we gain more certainty around the actual costs. Keep in mind that we also expect a headwind from normalized incentive compensation expense in 2020. We're committed to delivering our Investor Day targets of improving operating margins by between 3 percentage points and 6 percentage points throughout the cycle compared with our historical performance in 2010 to 2016. We believe that our 2020 plan will enable us to deliver this, while at the same time continuing to invest in the greatest opportunities to drive long-term profitable growth. Based on the lower tax rate in 2019, we now expect the effective tax rate in 2020 to be around 25%. As you build your quarterly earnings models for 2020, I want to remind you of a few things that may impact our normal seasonable patterns. Overall, dealers increased their inventory by $1.8 billion in the first half of 2019. This occurred principally in Construction Industries and Resource Industries. We expect a modest increase in dealer inventory in Construction Industries in the first quarter ahead of the normal selling season. That will be worked down by the end of the first half. In Resource Industries, dealer inventories rose in the first half of 2019, but we expect a modest reduction in the first half of 2020. Energy & Transportation has a different seasonable pattern with sales and revenues in solar and rail being more backend loaded. We expect oil and gas sales to be impacted in the first half as we had a significant backlog of orders at the beginning of 2019, which is different from the current situation. As a reminder, the reduced volume also impacts leverage, so that will be a factor in the first half of the year. Moving on cash flow and capital structure on slide 18. Working capital improved in the fourth quarter as we reduce the levels of inventory held by the company. We expect working capital to be neutral to positive in 2020. The reductions in Caterpillar inventory, together with an expected lower payout of short-term incentive compensation, should help offset the lower operating profit. Recall that the 2019 payout was against the results for 2018, which was a record year. We also do not anticipate any US pension contributions in 2020. CapEx in 2019 was $1.1 billion. We expect CapEx in 2020 to be around $1.2 billion. Our commitment at the Investor Day was to improve our free cash flow by between $1 billion and $2 billion through the cycle versus our historical performance in 2010 to 2016. This, together with the strong cash position, which was $8.3 billion at year-end, has enabled us to increase the quarterly dividend by 20% this year and be in the market more consistently for share repurchases. As Jim noted, we've returned $6.2 billion of cash to shareholders in 2019 through dividends and share buybacks. We remain committed to returning substantially all of our free cash flow to shareholders through the cycles. As we look ahead, we expect to increase the dividend by high-single digits in 2020 and the next three years after that. And based on our expected strong cash flow, to repurchase a similar level of shares in 2020 as we have done in 2018 and 2019. So, finally, let's turn to slide 19 and recap today's key points. 2019 sales and revenues declined by 2% to $53.8 billion. Operating profit was down 2% and profit per share totaled $10.74 or $11.06 on an adjusted basis. We've established a 2020 outlook range of $8.50 to $10 profit per share based on expectations for end user demand to decline between 4% and 9%. Our top line modeling assumption reflects $1 billion to $1.5 billion dollars of lower revenue from dealers, further reducing their inventory levels. We're keeping a close eye on production, so we can respond quickly. We're working on the competitiveness of our cost structure and our operating and execution models remains at the center of everything we do. We will continue to invest in services and expanded offerings. Our overall financial position remains strong and we expect strong cash flow in 2020 as well. We remain committed to our strategy of profitable growth and deployment of capital back to shareholders through a growing dividend and consistent share repurchases. With that, I'll hand the call back to Jennifer.
Jennifer Driscoll :
Thank you, Andrew. We will now move to the Q&A portion of the call. In order to include questions from more of our covering analyst, we ask that you please limit yourself to a single question. If you have a follow-up question, we'd invite you to reenter the queue. Paul, please begin the Q&A.
Operator:
Certainly. [Operator Instructions]. And the first question is coming from Ann Duignan of JP Morgan Securities. Ann, your line is live.
Ann Duignan:
Hi. Good morning, everybody. So many questions. I don't know how to pick one, but I think I will focus on pricing. If you could just expand on your flat pricing guidance for 2020, where are you seeing pricing improvement versus pricing degradation? And then, you said you increased your marketing programs in Q4 to stimulate demand, but it doesn't look like it's happened. So, if you could just talk about pricing across the businesses and across the regions, I'd appreciate it. Thank you.
Andrew Bonfield:
Yeah. Ann, thank you. It's Andrew. So, couple of factors within Q4. As I mentioned, one, geographic mix was a factor as well. So, obviously, if you think about the way we price, particularly North America as a stronger pricing region, and so that geographic mix, given the reduction in inventory came through the price line. We expect that to continue as we do reduce dealer inventory through 2020. So, that will have an impact on pricing, particularly as you look at mix through the year. So, probably actually first half pricing will be a little bit weaker than we see, expect it for the for the second half. We have put modest price increases through. Obviously, we need to see how much of that sticks again and how much you have to put back into programs. Yes, your point about, we didn't see much demand being stimulated, yes, because we did see a reduction in the sales to users in the fourth quarter. We believe that had we not actually put that pricing behind, they may have actually a little bit worse than that. So, that was part of the programs being put in place.
Ann Duignan:
I'm sorry. Didn't fully understand your North America answer. You said pricing is stronger in North America or price reductions are greater in North America?
Andrew Bonfield:
No. It's the geographic mix. So, as you go through, if you look what's in our pricing line, it includes changes in geographic mix. We base it on a rate per unit. And, obviously, North American units tend to have a higher price because they are higher stakes than prices across the rest of the world. So, therefore, you do tend to then see a negative price variance coming through as a result of that with lower new North American sales.
Ann Duignan:
And just so I'm clear, China pricing is down year-over-year. Is that the expectation going forward? And is it contained to China?
Andrew Bonfield:
I don't think we've said anything about China pricing. We're talking about China sales. We said we expect China sales to be down flat to slightly down in 2020. We haven't talked about pricing by territory or market.
Ann Duignan:
Okay. In the interest of time, I'll get back in queue, but I would like some clarification offline. Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. And the next question is coming from Joe O'Dea of Vertical Research Partners. Joe, your line is live.
Joe O'Dea:
Good morning. I wanted to ask about retail sales. When we look at the trends, it looks like a rather sharp sequential slowing from 3Q into 4Q. And you commented that it was a bigger step down than you expected. But just in terms of how you interpret those trends and based on conversations you're having with customers and dealers, the degree to which you're able to parse out how much of that is a bit of a spend freeze at the end of the year, the degree to which you have any insight based on January versus you're noting kind of December demand levels as something that we should be extrapolating going forward?
James Umpleby:
Good morning, Joe. So, really have to look at it by our various industry. There's no kind of one answer that covers all of those. We talked about the fact that, in mining, that business can be quite lumpy and that can be reflected in both our sales and our retail stats as well. Activity in mining continues to be strong. A lot a discussions with customers, lots of quotes, but our customers are being cautious, as we mentioned earlier. But we do expect that slow gradual increase to occur in mining and we're expecting a stronger six months than – last six months of the year be stronger than the first six. In oil and gas, we do anticipate the depressed market conditions in North American onshore production to continue in well servicing, recip gas compression and drilling. We do expect that to continue. CI is a bit of a mixed bag. Again, we talked about our expectations there for CI. I really don't have anything to add on top of that.
Joe O'Dea:
Okay, thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. And the next question is coming from Ross Gilardi of Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Ross, your line is live.
Ross Gilardi:
Yeah. Thanks, guys. Good morning.
Jennifer Driscoll:
Good morning.
James Umpleby:
Good morning, Ross.
Ross Gilardi:
Jim, you know this oil and gas business that Caterpillar has a bit better than anybody. And I am just wondering how your spare parts and service for E&T, both upstream recips and turbines, how they are behaving? Were they stable in the fourth quarter? And are you expecting them to be stable within your outlook? Clearly, the new equipment outlook is very soft, but solar has traditionally been able to weather a lot of these downturns. And I'm wondering if you expect the parts and service components of your oil and gas business to remain resilient, particularly in an oversupplied natural gas market.
James Umpleby:
Yeah. Starting with solar, as we indicated, solar had a solid fourth quarter both on the OE and on the service side. And we do expect their service sales going forward to remain resilient. That's been proved many, many times. So, we do expect that to be the case. We had mentioned a number of times over the last year, there's a bit of a pent-up demand for oil and gas parts for rebuilds that resulted in increased sales in 2017 and 2018. So, with the pressure on North American oil and gas, that business will remain challenged through 2020.
Ross Gilardi:
Okay, thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. And the next question is coming from Jerry Revich from Goldman Sachs. Jerry, your line is live.
Jerry Revich:
Hi. Good morning, everyone.
James Umpleby:
Good morning, Jerry.
Jerry Revich:
I wonder if you could just expand on your decremental margin assumptions. It looks like you're embedding 35% decrementals give or take in the 2020 outlook. And when we look at your decremental in the last sales downturn, they were generally in the 20% range. So, I'm just wondering if you'd just bridge that as that could give yourselves room to execute in a challenging environment. But can you just share the pieces just to bridge us between the historical decremental margin performance versus the target for 2020?
Andrew Bonfield:
Great question, Jerry. It's Andrew. Thank you very much. This is exactly why we don't talk about incrementals and decrementals anymore. What we have done, obviously, through the last downturn, the company took out a significant amount of structural costs. And as we've gone through the last couple of years where we've seen an upcycle, we have not put that cost back in the business. What that meant, obviously, is margins improve, absolute margins improve over time, which is why we gave the Investor Day targets of improving margins by 3% to 6% against historical performance. On the way down, because we are not – we haven't put a lot of structural costs back in, there's not a lot of structural cost to cut, so you will see, obviously, higher deleverage as you go down. Also, because we're expecting this relatively to be a pause rather than some fundamental change in the market, we are continuing to invest in both services and in R&D, particularly for NPI, new product introductions. That is important for us because that drives long-term growth. So, we maintain the flexibility. How we are managing it? We're managing against those margin targets. We look at the absolute margin to make sure we stay within that 3% to 6% range against the level of sales and revenues we're expecting next year and we do believe the plan we've got does do that.
Jerry Revich:
And, Andrew, can you just expand maybe a little bit on the variable cost structure part of that discussion because more variable cost structure would suggest lower incremental and decremental margin. So, I appreciate the comment on – we have less restructuring opportunities now, but maybe you can expand on that point because that would sound like it would reduce the cyclicality and operating leverage.
Andrew Bonfield:
Yeah. So, obviously, volume is going to have a major impact next year as we go through. Obviously, that is the biggest single factor. And, obviously, operating leverage is a factor in the margin. With regards to the other part, obviously, we're expecting pricing to be about flat next year. We are expecting some favorability in material cost, as I mentioned, particularly around steel, and also because of some programs we've put in place. How much of that feeds through into margins next year will depend on how quickly we get those programs through out of inventory and actually into sales. We're also start expecting lower freight next year. Freight costs have been high for the last couple of years, and partly because of, obviously, trying to meet end user demand. But now with lead times being in a better place, we don't expect as much premium freight to occur.
Jerry Revich:
Thank you.
James Umpleby:
And maybe just to expand on that answer just a bit, one of the things that Andrew mentioned earlier is we're really paying a lot of attention to end user demand. Our dealers are independent businesses, but we're working with them to ensure that we don't have too much dealer inventory. And in the past, I'd argue that some of our cyclicality has been exacerbated by movements in dealer inventory. So, by shortening our lead times, having a dealer inventory that is appropriate for market demand, we believe that we will have a dampening effect on our cyclicality, which is part of what we're trying to accomplish.
Jerry Revich:
Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. And the next question is coming from Seth Weber of RBC Capital Markets. Seth, your line is live.
Seth Weber:
Hey. Good morning.
James Umpleby:
Good morning, Seth.
Seth Weber:
I wanted to ask about the China construction market. I know you mentioned your expectations for the market to be kind of flat to down. CAT's been picking up share there recently over the last few months. Can you speak to your expectations for CAT, particularly what's been driving the market share gains? Have you sort of changed tact with some of your marketing programs? Is there new product that's kind of gaining good acceptance? And can you just talk broadly about your expectations relative to the market? Thanks.
James Umpleby:
Yeah. What we indicated, I believe, is that we expect our sales to be flat to slightly down in 2020. We talked earlier about the fact that we're continually introducing new products as part of our expanded offering strategies. GC products and certainly a big part of that target customer audience is in China. We're continuing to build out our dealer network, continue to build out our footprint there, along with connected assets and all the other things we're doing. We believe that we're well-positioned to compete in China moving forward.
Seth Weber:
Okay, sorry. So, CAT is flat to down. Is that better than what you're seeing for the market then? I thought that was a market commentary?
James Umpleby:
I believe it's roughly similar.
Seth Weber:
Roughly similar. Okay. Thank you very much.
James Umpleby:
Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. And the next question is coming from David Raso of Evercore ISI. David, your line is live.
David Raso:
Hi. Thank you. My question is about EPS guidance, but can I go about it related to the dealer inventory swings. So, the inventory reduction this year you're targeting, midpoints, $1.25 billion, but the headwind for you is actually greater on a year-over-year basis, right, because the inventory went up $700 million last year. So, we're looking at a $1.95 billion drag year-over-year. But the way you spoke to the inventory sequentially, it appeared – and correct me if I'm wrong – almost all of that $1.95 billion, a very large majority of it, that year-over-year drag is really concentrated in the first half of the year, is that correct?
Andrew Bonfield:
David, it's Andrew. Yes, that is correct.
David Raso:
So, when I think about the EPS cadence, pricing, a little bit of a struggle to start the year. The big inventory swing for the full year is really focused on the first half. Sort of set you up for the answer that I'm just trying to figure out then. Normally, the first quarter, the last, whatever, 20 years, the median, it's up a little bit from the fourth quarter. Your fourth quarter was on the high side. So, is it fair to say that's not the case this year? We start low in the first half. The first quarter is below the 4Q and then it climbs from there? I'm just trying to get, again, a sense of how much is the…
Andrew Bonfield:
Part of the reason why I tried to talk a little bit about the phasing for next year is, yes, do not expect the historic trends to prevail. As you know, normally, first quarter is a relatively strong quarter. Always a strong quarter from a margin perspective as we build inventory heading into selling season. And then, obviously, the second half is slightly weaker than the first half, but that is the normal pattern, both from a sales and revenue and also from a profitability perspective. Your assumptions you're making are fairly accurate based on what we're seeing. We do expect dealer inventory to have an impact on the first half. As I said, CI will see some build in Q1, but that should be broadly flat by Q2. RI will see a steady decline through the first half of the year versus a build last year. So, that is the likely outcome as we move. And so, yes, you can't just – you won't be able to just simply be able to use the seasonal trends as a plug in your model, I'm afraid.
David Raso:
And just to be clear, Jim, last year, obviously, the inventory reduction was a little disappointing. The management's commitment to take care of this inventory in the first half of the year, I just want to be clear, I know they're independent dealers, but are we looking to take out year-over-year swing, completely avoid the normal seasonal build, you're not looking to build inventory at all in the first half of the year and that's that big year-over-year drag? I'm just making sure, from the prior, let's say, disappointments on the inventory the last couple of quarters, is there a firm commitment to address this in the first half and not let this linger into the back half?
Andrew Bonfield:
Yeah. David, we work with our dealers, but they are managing their businesses themselves. So, we can't manage their inventory for them. However, based on our expectations on order patterns we're seeing from dealers, we do expect that they will be working hard to reduce their inventory in the first half of the year. We can't make a 100% commitment, but, obviously, we do expect the vast majority of that to happen in the first half.
James Umpleby:
And one of the reasons that our fourth-quarter inventory didn't decline as much as we anticipated is because end user sales were lower than our expectations. So, obviously, end user sales has an impact on inventory in the quarter.
David Raso:
I appreciate it. Thank you so much.
Operator:
Thank you. [Operator Instructions]. Your next question is coming from Rob Wertheimer of Melius Research. Ron, You may ask your question.
Rob Wertheimer:
Thank you. Let's see if it works. Just a quick clarification. On North American construction, you have residential and non-residential construction to decline. Is that industry dollar spent on construction or is that construction equipment for the industry? And if I can, my question is really – the reduction in lead time is a fantastic thing for CAT and reduction in volatility would be a great thing for CAT. Any color around just the work you've done to achieve that and if dealers are starting to recognize that in wanting to hold structurally lower inventory? Thanks.
Andrew Bonfield:
With regards to residential/non-residential, construction equipment relating to that is what we're expecting to see the decline.
Rob Wertheimer:
Perfect.
Andrew Bonfield:
And then, as regards the inventory, let me hand that back to Jim.
James Umpleby:
Yeah. In terms of lead times, we were working on this lean journey for a long time. And, obviously, if we can find ways to reduce our lead times, it helps us both in the up cycle to respond more quickly to increases in changes in demand and also allows us to cut back more quickly, so we don't have an overhang, which help to dampen the impact of the cycles. Again, we've got our total team focused on reducing cycle times, all part of that lean journey and really trying to synchronize across the value chain. And I think we're doing a better job of that than we have in the past. But it's a never-ending journey.
Rob Wertheimer:
Okay. Thanks, Jim.
Operator:
Thank you. And the next question is coming from Ashish Gupta from Stephens. Ashish, your line is live.
Ashish Gupta:
Great. Thanks so much. Just wondering if you could expand on your GC comments related to China. Maybe you can give us a sense of what went right or where you're looking for incremental improvement in 2020? I guess I'm just referring to sort of the market share losses through most of the year, although it did improve in the end. Just kind of trying to think about how much of a contributor that could be in 2020 and beyond, where the successes were and where you could see some incremental improvements?
James Umpleby:
Yeah. Whether it's China or any other part of the world, the competitive landscape is continually changing as we introduce new products, our competitors introduce new products. So, that's nothing new. And so, again, you look anywhere in the world over time, we see changes in the competitive situation. We have demonstrated our ability to successfully compete in China. We've localized – we have a local leadership team. We have dozens of factories. We have localized our supply chain and we continue to build out our dealer network and increase services and connectivity and introduce new products. So, again, competitive situation in China or anywhere in the world is fluid, but we're very committed to be successful in that market and I believe it demonstrated we can be successful competitively.
Operator:
Thank you. And the next question is coming from Jamie Cook from Credit Suisse Securities. Jamie, your line is live.
Jamie Cook:
Hi. Good morning. A clarification, if you could just elaborate. You talked about the normal restructuring of $200 million and then the – I'm sorry, normal restructuring which I assume is $200 million; and then the strategic stuff you're reviewing, another $200 million. I'm just trying to understand what's in the EPS guide that you're not adjusting out. And then, I guess, my question is, you talked about reviewing products. You talked about some cost-cutting, realizing it's not what we had – there's not the opportunity in prior cycles. But as we get to the back half of the year, I'm just trying to understand are there any savings associated with these measures or does that play more into 2021? Thanks.
Andrew Bonfield:
Okay. Jamie, so we have said we would – this year we expect – beginning of the year, we said that, for 2019, that we expect the restructuring cost now to normalize at between $100 million and $200 million a year. We were slightly above that. You will have heard me say that we were $236 million for 2019. We expect a normal level in 2020. So, between the $100 million to $200 million is the sort of normal level we would have. The $200 million, actually, yes, you're correct. It does relate to some products which are delivering OPACC. We've got to go through with doing the evaluation of the actions we can do. And at the moment, our guidance does not take into account that there would be any savings associated with these measures in 2020. We think more likely that will be in 2021 anyway.
Jamie Cook:
And is there any way to think about savings associated with that or just too early? And to confirm, repurchase is in your EPS guide, right?
Andrew Bonfield:
Yeah. Repurchases in the EPS guide. And, yes, we will keep you updated on this because, I think, as the charges come through, we'll pick it up and then we'll talk to you about what we're expecting from a benefit perspective.
James Umpleby:
Jamie, to add in there, we're also continuing to look at ways to reduce our structural cost, particularly in the areas of back office, procurement and all the rest. And we do expect, again, over time, to have improved performance as a result of that. Again, relatively limited impact in 2020. But we're really trying to take the right steps in 2020 to set ourselves up for the future with a lower structural cost.
Jamie Cook:
Thank you. That's helpful.
James Umpleby:
Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. And your final question is coming from Stephen Volkmann from Jefferies & Company. Stephen, your line is live.
Stephen Volkmann:
Great. Hi. Good morning, guys.
James Umpleby:
Hi, Steve.
Stephen Volkmann:
Andrew, thank you for all the comments relative to sort of the EPS cadence. But I'm wondering, Jim, if I can ask how you're thinking about the markets. You talked about this earlier. I think you sort of characterized it as a pause. So, the down 4% to 9% in end user demand, is that sort of significantly lower in the first half? And then, maybe closer to breakeven in the second half? Or do you think this kind of runs its course and the fourth quarter run rate could actually be kind of back to growth again? Or are you just sort of predicting kind of steady continuous weakness in end user demand?
James Umpleby:
I think you really have to look at it by segment. So, in Resource Industries, and mining in particular, we believe that the second half will be stronger than the first half. Again, we feel there is a slow gradual recovery occurring in mining. Our customers are cautious. But just based on the quoting activity and the amount of that that's going on, we do anticipate that there'll be a stronger last half of the year than first half. In construction, don't anticipate any dramatic changes first half to second half. Oil and gas, onshore, we expect that to remain depressed throughout the year. Solar and rail typically have strong fourth quarters. It's that way almost every year. And we have no reason to think that wouldn't happen again.
Stephen Volkmann:
Great. I appreciate. Thanks, guys.
James Umpleby:
Thank you.
Jennifer Driscoll:
Okay. With that, let me turn it back to Jim for his closing remarks.
James Umpleby:
Thank you all for joining the call and appreciate your questions. CAT faced several challenges in 2019 and I'm very proud of our team of employees, how they met those challenges with determination. They've allowed us to meet our operating margin targets that we set on our Investor Day and do the other things we said we would do. And we continue to advance our strategy for profitable growth. We are investing significantly in services, expanded offerings and working on that operational excellence. Record safety year, shortening lead times, working on the cost structure. And certainly, 2020 will bring its own set of challenges and opportunities, but we remain focused on delivering additional value to our customers and our shareholders, and we'll continue to execute our strategy for profitable growth. Thanks for your time.
Jennifer Driscoll:
Thanks, Jim. Thanks everybody who joined us for our call today. If you missed any portion of the call, you can catch it by replay online later this morning. We will post a transcript on the Investor Relations site within one business day. If you have any follow-up questions, please reach out to Rob or me. Rob is at [email protected]. I'm at [email protected]. And the general phone number in investor relations is +1-309-675-4549. And let me ask Paul to conclude our call.
Operator:
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude today's conference call. You may disconnect your phone lines at this time and have a wonderful day. Thank you for your participation.
Operator:
Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Caterpillar 3Q 2019 Analyst Conference. [Operator Instructions]. It is now my pleasure to turn the floor over to your host, Jennifer Driscoll. Ma'am, the floor is yours.
Jennifer Driscoll:
Thanks, Catherine. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Caterpillar's Third Quarter Earnings Call at our new, earlier time of 7:30 a.m Central. Joining us today are Jim Umpleby, Chairman of the Board and CEO; Andrew Bonfield, CFO; and Kyle Epley, vice president of our global finance services division; and Rob Rengel, Investor Relations Manager. Our call today expands on our earnings release which we issued earlier this morning. You'll find slides to accompany today's presentation, along with the release, in the investors section of caterpillar.com, under events & presentations. The forward-looking statements we make today are subject to risks and uncertainties. We'll also make assumptions that could cause our actual results to be different than the information we discuss today. Please refer to our recent SEC filings and the forward-looking statements reminder in today's news release for details on factors that individually or combined could cause our actual results to vary materially from our forecasts. Let me remind you that Caterpillar has copyrighted this call, and we prohibit use of any portion of it without our prior written approval. We're not reporting adjusted profit per share today, but remember we will at the end of the fourth quarter. This will exclude any mark-to-market gain or loss for the remeasurement of pension and other post-employment benefit plans as well as any other material discrete items. As a reminder
James Umpleby:
Thank you, Jennifer. Good morning and welcome to Caterpillar's Third Quarter Earnings Call. First, I'll cover our third quarter results at a high level and give you my perspective on the key factors influencing our performance. I'll then provide some context for our decision to lower our 2019 guidance and will discuss our expectations for the external environment. The primary factor impacting our third quarter results was lower volume driven by reductions in dealer inventory and lower-than-expected demand from end users. Sales and revenues declined 6% during the quarter mostly due to Construction Industries and Resource Industries. During the third quarter of 2018, dealers increased inventory by $800 million in anticipation of increasing end user demand. This compares to a decline of $400 million in dealer inventory during the third quarter of 2019, a quarter-to-quarter change of $1.2 billion. Although the retail sales data we released this morning reflected an increase of 6% for both machines and Energy & Transportation, we believe dealers reduced inventory due to uncertainty in the global economy resulting from trade tensions and other factors. We've also made progress reducing our lead times, which allows dealers to maintain less inventory. Shorter lead times allows Caterpillar and our dealers to more quickly adapt to changing market conditions. We are taking steps to reduce production to match dealer demand. Our third quarter operating profit decreased 5%, driven primarily by lower volume. We maintained our operating profit margin percent despite lower volume and some continued pressure on manufacturing costs. We anticipate meeting the full year operating margin targets communicated during our Investor Day last May. Turning to the full year on Slide 4. We lowered our guidance for 2019 this morning. We now expect profit per share for the full year to be between $10.90 and $11.40 versus our prior guidance of the low end of the range of $12.06 to $13.06. Both ranges include the benefit of the $0.31 discrete tax item in the first quarter. Our revised outlook is primarily the result of caution being displayed by our dealers and customers due to uncertainty in the global economic environment. You'll recall that, during our second quarter earnings call, we expected dealers to reduce inventories by about $900 million during the last 6 months of the year. We now anticipate that dealers will reduce their inventories by about $1.3 billion versus second quarter levels. This includes a decrease of approximately $900 million during the fourth quarter. As a result, our production and shipment to dealers for the balance of the year will be lower than we previously anticipated. As I mentioned earlier, the retail sales figures we released this morning showed growth of 6% for machines and Energy & Transportation. However, based on input from dealers and customers, we now expect fourth quarter end user demand to be about flat compared to the fourth quarter of 2018. Based on our revised expectations for dealer inventory and end user demand, we now expect sales and revenues to be modestly lower for the full year versus our prior expectation of modest sales and revenue growth in 2019. The global economic situation is very fluid due to a variety of factors. The decline in dealer inventory, along with our improved lead times, will position us to react quickly to positive or negative developments in the global economy during 2020. As I mentioned, we're taking actions to reduce production levels to reflect dealer order patterns and will be ready to increase production if order levels improve. We're also taking action in other areas to improve the competitiveness and flexibility of our cost structure, which Andrew will expand upon shortly. During our Investor Day in May, we shared our intention to drive long-term shareholder value by returning substantially all of our Machinery, Energy & Transportation free cash flow to shareholders through a competitive dividend and a more consistent share repurchase plan. Our balance sheet remained strong. During the third quarter, we paid a quarterly dividend of $1.03 per share, representing a 20% increase over the previous quarter. As previously communicated, we expect to increase our dividend by the high single-digits percent during each of the next 4 years, continuing as the dividend aristocrat. Our most recent dividend increase reflects the company's confidence in our ability to achieve improved free cash flows through the cycle, as we discussed in May. We also repurchased $1.2 billion of common stock in the third quarter. We continue to expect share repurchases during the second half of the year will be similar to the first half, which will reduce our total quarterly average diluted shares outstanding by about 9% since the first quarter of 2018. Now let me comment further on our expectations for the external environment. In Construction Industries, we continue to anticipate North America end user demand to be higher than 2018 because of strength in state and local infrastructure and nonresidential construction activity. At the same time, we expect dealers to reduce their inventories in North America from current levels. Turning to Asia Pacific
Andrew Bonfield:
Thank you, Jim. And good morning, everyone. I'll begin on Slide 6 with third quarter results, focusing in particular on what drove the top line. Then I'll turn to our revised outlook before finishing on capital deployment. Sales and revenues for the third quarter declined by 6% to $12.8 billion. Operating profit decreased by 5% to $2 billion. Profit per share declined by 8% to $2.66. Overall, our results were lower than we'd expected. This quarter was largely a volume story. As you've seen on Slide 7, sales volume declined by $751 million. Construction Industries and Resource Industries drove this decline. The unfavorable currency movements were caused by the euro and the Australian dollar. It's important to understand the moving parts behind the volume figures. As Jim mentioned, the primary driver was changes dealers made in their inventories. If the impacts of this year-on-year change were to be excluded from our top line results, the underlying sales performance will be in line with the growth we reported in retail machine sales statistics this morning. We expect to see dealing inventory decline further in the fourth quarter, and I'll talk about that later when I discuss changes to our 2019 outlook. Now let me discuss the individual segments. Firstly, on Slide 8. We saw strong margin performance from Energy & Transportation, which is not surprising as the second half tends to be stronger for that business. Despite a 2% sales decline, segment profit decreased by $48 million or 5% mainly due to lower incentive compensation expense. The segment margin finished at 18.7% of total sales, an expansion of 120 basis points. In Resource Industries, shown on Slide 9, the impact of lower volumes and higher warranty expenses, which were partially offset by favorable price realization, drove the margin down by 220 basis points. Total sales decreased by 12%, and segment profit decreased by 25% to 13.5% of sales. The top line performance was driven by changes in dealer buying patterns. Dealers increased their inventories in the third quarter of 2018, whilst they decreased them in this quarter. Margins in Resource Industries are the most sensitive to fluctuations in volume. In the first and second quarters, margins were strong, driven by the leverage associated with volume growth. We'd expect the fourth quarter to show a similar pattern to the third quarter, but overall we expect full year margins for the segment to be higher than they were in 2018. Now turning to Slide 10. For Construction Industries, sales declined by 7% due to reduced volumes. Our sales in the Asia Pacific region slowed versus a strong third quarter last year as dealers decreased inventories, particularly in China, versus an increase in the prior year. In North America we saw a solid third quarter in sales tied to road and nonresidential building construction. In the September rolling 3-month sales per user data published this morning, we showed an increase of 4% in worldwide dealer sales of construction equipment. We continue to develop and launch new products around the world, helping our customers move in their unique environments and enabling us to extend this growth over the long term. The segment margin fell by 80 basis points to 17.8%. While price continued to offset manufacturing costs, negative volume and mix were greater than the impact of lower short-term compensation expense. Let's move to Slide 11 for a discussion of our profit performance. Altogether, third quarter operating profit decreased by 5%. The volume decline I spoke about earlier was the main driver of the change year-over-year. Our overall margin structure remains healthy. Although in absolute dollar terms both have moderated in the third quarter, price realization continues to offset increases in manufacturing costs. Obviously, pricing realization was lower as we lapped the midyear price increase in 2018, but equally we have seen the rate of growth in material and freight costs moderate as we've gone past the start of the significant changes in 2018. Our profit margin was 15.8% of sales and revenues in the third quarter, flat versus the prior year. Let me talk you through some of the headwinds and tailwinds outside of the volume that impacted operating profit. Starting with tailwinds
Operator:
[Operator Instructions]. Your first question is coming from Jamie Cook from Crédit Suisse.
Jamie Cook:
I guess, a couple questions. First, on the resource side, I think that sales and margin surprised people a little, while the overall quarter was fairly good. You talked about warranty. You talked about production cuts. Is there any way you can sort of quantify what the impact of that was in the quarter on the margin front? And is there anything that you're seeing sort of from the order intake side to suggest that there is more downside risk on the sales side for 2020 and what that implies for margins? And then my second question, bigger picture sort of on 2020. I guess the assumption is you go into 2020 with producing in line with retail demand. Is there any way you can help us with other puts and takes? It sounds like there is a cost-cutting program that could be additive, sort of incentive comp, share count lower. I'm just trying to think about the puts and takes that we should consider positive or negative. We can make our own assumption on volumes.
James Umpleby:
Well, Jamie, just a couple of comments. I think it's important to remember for Resource Industries that it's a mix of mining products and heavy construction in quarry and aggregates. So you've seen weaker sales unexpected on the heavy construction and aggregate side of the business. Mining sales on a year-to-date basis continue to be positive, and rebuilds and part sales remained strong across the board. In the third quarter, we did see dealers reduce inventory related to heavy construction and some isolated pockets in mining for coal-related inventory. Again, I just want to emphasize that, again, RI does include both that heavy construction and mining, so it's not just a mining story.
Andrew Bonfield:
And moving on to the margins, Jamie. It really is all around volume and mix. So the biggest driver both on a year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter basis all relates to that. All the other items are puts and takes virtually as we move through. Remember, versus last year, we have lower short-term incentive compensation, but that is offset partly by a higher warranty, but versus quarter-on-quarter, all the other items are -- really washes all down to volume. And then moving into 2020, I mean, obviously at this stage, as we've said, the situation global economic outlook is very uncertain, so we are not going to be providing sort of sales guidance or top line or outlook guidance at this stage. We're still in the middle of our budgeting process, and things are very fluid. However, on some of the things, yes, we are continuing to look at our cost structure. As I've mentioned, we are looking at things like G&A and back-office costs, procurement costs and so forth. All of those are initiatives that are ongoing and will continue to go. They are part of maintaining a flexible and competitive cost structure. And then as far as share count, as we've said, by the end of this year, we'll have reduced the share count by about 9%. That will have an impact of about -- obviously they're split between 2018 and 2019, so there will be a bit of a tailwind from that. Next year, there will be a little bit negative on short-term incentive compensation. We expect this year to be about $150 million lower than our base plan. That obviously will be reset for next year.
Jamie Cook:
Okay, but I mean in -- the goal for 2020 to produce in line with retail demand, so sort of in a flat market it's not unreasonable to assume you could probably grow earnings.
Andrew Bonfield:
Obviously it depends what your assumptions are on top line, yes. So if your assumption is we have a flat retail market, that obviously would flow through, yes.
Operator:
Your next question is coming from Rob Wertheimer from Melius Research.
Robert Wertheimer:
Thanks for the commentary on dealer inventory and otherwise. It seems like you made a positive step. And dealer inventories are going down, up last quarter, going down now; and yet that was only maybe a -- I don't know, maybe 1/4 of the total cut to revenues. So I'm trying to square the circle here. The dealer sales in retail seemed pretty good in your release this morning, up mid-single digit. You're reducing dealer inventory and those sales are up. And so I guess dealers must have really gotten more conservative on orders, but could you just talk about dealer inventory cut being 1/4 of that overall revenue cut? And then did you see any cancellations in Solar or any direct sales or larger projects?
Andrew Bonfield:
Yes. So Rob, if you think about -- I think you're talking about over the full year rather than actually in the quarter because obviously, in the quarter, we saw a quite significant year-on-year impact of dealer inventory because it was up $0.8 billion last year and down $0.4 billion. So when we started the year, if you remember, our assumption was that actually we would have flat dealer inventories and a modest growth in sales. And obviously now what we're saying is with a $500 million build of sales we are seeing slightly lower sales for the full year. Yes, we are -- our view is that probably we've lost about 2% on retail versus where our base case guidance started the year. So effectively that's been the big driver. That mostly relates to expectations out there and particularly obviously in the fourth quarter where it's dampened quiet -- dampened down to flat. We've been running a sort of 4% to 6% for the full year. Our full year expectation was probably at the top end of that range, and we're not going to meet that.
James Umpleby:
You asked a question about larger order for Solar. No, Solar's business continues to remain strong.
Operator:
Your next question is coming from David Raso from Evercore ISI.
David Raso:
I think people are just trying to figure out the -- regardless where The Street is for 2020, you've now kind of put out a $2.40 midpoint adjusted EPS for the fourth quarter. And just trying to get a sense; sort of annualize that, say $9.60. The margins for the fourth quarter seem to be implied around 13% to 13.5%. Just trying to get a feel from you. And I know 2020 is a lot of planning is still going on, but the approach you took to the fourth quarter, to get a sense of that $9.60 run rate -- or do we feel like we're trying to bottom the earnings a bit here if the retail can just be flattish, even down a bit next year? How do you view your margins in the fourth quarter? That 13% to 13.5% implied, is that -- I mean, how much of a hit? Because obviously $900 million in inventory reductions is a bit of a drag that maybe you want to see again in 2020, that big a drag in 1 quarter. Can you just take us through your thought process on how you view the fourth quarter and those margins?
Andrew Bonfield:
Yes, Dave. So the fourth quarter, as you always -- as you know, is always our lowest quarter from a margin perspective. As we think through the year and our production cycles and the way obviously through accounting and the way we benefit from operating leverage by volume, effectively you tend to see Q1 and Q2 stronger margins, Q3 slightly lower. And particularly in CI you normally see a historic -- at least a 1.5 percentage points drop in margin in Q4. So that is why normally Q4 margins are lower than for the balance of the year. As we look for this year, obviously the dealer inventory would normally be a further reduction in margin because you're having an element of deleverage. However, there are some things running the other way, particularly things like lower STIP, short-term incentive compensation. We also have lapped a lot of the material and freight cost increases from last year, so that does help from an overall margin perspective. And then we are seeing, obviously, last year, we did have some negative in Cat Financial in particular as well. And then obviously, as you get to PPS, you're also going to see the benefit of lower share count. So all of those factors are weighing in as we think about the fourth quarter. I would not read through fourth quarter margins as being our likely margin structure as we move into 2020. We would expect normal seasonable patterns to happen in 2020. Obviously it then just depends on what the volume is and how that volume throughput flows through into variable margins.
David Raso:
Well, that was sort of the spirit of the question. I mean the fourth quarter is usually low, as someone is taking a little bigger hit, as we said, of the inventory reduction. Because the math I'm running, even if sales are down 5% next year, even if the margins stay that low, you're still run-rating $9.60, all right? That's assuming share repo and everything else. So just trying to get a sense of we could all make our view of retail demand, but it just seems like, if that's the fourth quarter with that margin -- and you just answered my question. You don't think the margins should go lower than that. It is sort of trying to at least baseline this run rate earnings power. I mean a lot could change, but I appreciate the answer. I just wanted to get a sense of how you view that fourth quarter margin, so okay.
Operator:
Your next question is coming from Joel Tiss from BMO Capital Markets.
Joel Tiss:
I just wondered around pricing. Is sort of the bulk of the pricing -- or any color you can give us on is that coming from new products and features? Or is that just coming more from raw material pass-throughs? And any sort of setup into 2020, how you're looking at pricing potential for 2020?
Andrew Bonfield:
Yes. So obviously, as I've mentioned, we did see the rate of price moderate in Q3. That was as effectively we've lapped the price increase that happened in the midyear as well, and obviously we are now working through the end -- the "beginning of the year" price increase. We have -- given that it gave us an indication of price increases in 2020, we expect price to be much more moderate in 2020. Obviously, it's depending -- or that will also then depend on the competitive environment as well as we move into 2020, and we'll provide a little bit more feel of that when we get to our guidance in January.
Joel Tiss:
And no color around the is it more from new features and new products. Or is it just raw material related?
Andrew Bonfield:
Yes. I mean we tend -- that price that we recognize on the way we give you is -- tends to be around real price increases rather than actually mix increases. So obviously mix will go, which -- with new product would tend to go into the mix bucket when we look at mix and volume rather than price.
Joel Tiss:
Okay. And then just quick, for Jim. Any pieces of the portfolio that you feel like over the next five years need to be beefed up; or things, as you're getting deeper into your operational excellence, that maybe wouldn't fit? And you don't have to name the pieces but just kind of just more of a structural question of changing the portfolio versus just returning cash.
James Umpleby:
Yes. We continually evaluate our portfolio. We're always thinking about resource allocation. That's, of course, part of the O&E Model. We've talked a lot about our intent to continue to invest in services to grow the aftermarket because that represents the best opportunity for future profitable growth for both us and our dealers, but in terms of changing the portfolio, we're always evaluating what potential changes we could make to drive more shareholder value.
Operator:
Your next question is coming from Courtney Yakavonis from Morgan Stanley.
Courtney Yakavonis:
Just wanted to go back to the dealer inventory destock expected in the fourth quarter. It seems like most of it was coming from resources and then also from APAC construction this quarter. Can you just comment on how much of that will be coming additionally from those regions versus North America construction and whether you're also expecting a decent amount there? And then just back on resources, where you called out the softer demand in nonresi construction and quarry and aggregate versus thermal coal prices, can you just help us understand how big of a factor each of those was; and just again as we're thinking about the fourth quarter and into 2020, how big of a drag this can still be; or whether you're expecting a replacement cycle to offset that?
Andrew Bonfield:
Yes. So let me start on the dealer inventory, Courtney. The -- first, fourth quarter expectations are that most of the dealer inventory reduction will come in North America, which will impact North American revenue -- sales and revenues in Q4. We actually do expect an inventory build again in -- particularly in China, in Q4, and that's partly in recognition of the fact that there's an early Chinese New Year. And obviously that means the selling season starts earlier in China next year. So that will be a factor as we move into Q4. With regards to your question on ROI, I think the -- our view is overall mining probably will be -- remain positive for the year. If you look at mining CapEx and expectations of mining CapEx, that remains positive, so our expectation is that will effectively reflect through. If we look at things like power fleet, it's at the lowest level since we've ever been recording it which is since 2013. So there is latent demand there. And as we said, we do think obviously miners are being cautious on their capital investments, but there is the demand and replacement cycle that is needed at some stage, particularly on large mining trucks. I will just remind you that is only a portion of our RI business. I know it's often what people tend to use as the sort of marker but relatively small. I think obviously, as far as nonresi construction is concerned, our expectation probably is relatively that will be a drag, particularly in Q4, as effectively -- particularly that is the area where there's still more inventory to come out.
James Umpleby:
If I can just add a couple comments, Courtney, on mining. So again, we believe we're in the early stages of our multiyear recovery in mining. Just given the economic turmoil going on, our mining customers are being cautious, and so they are hesitant to pull the trigger on new equipment, although again we're seeing increased sales. So we're seeing improvement in that business. One thing is -- to also keep in mind is that, when miners sometimes delay, that creates opportunities for us for rebuilds and parts. So that isn't all negative either. So again, it's an opportunity either way.
Courtney Yakavonis:
Would you characterize aftermarket as still being stronger than you would have expected otherwise?
James Umpleby:
I say that it continues to be strong. It's how I would characterize it. It continues to be strong, about as we expected.
Operator:
Your next question is coming from Ross Gilardi from Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
Ross Gilardi:
I just want to ask on the dividend, in committing to a high single-digit increase over the next four years. I mean, if you apply a 7% to 9% increase, your dividend is $5.40 to $5.80 in four years. I would assume you plan on covering the dividend with earnings internally even at the trough of the cycle. And if that's the case, it would seem like you're implying at least $6 of trough earnings, so I just wanted -- I was hoping you could just comment on the thought process. And in your mind, is there some type of minimum earnings payout ratio that you're assuming at the trough of the cycle in making that commitment to raise the dividend at that level given obviously you have no visibility on what's going to happen in the next 3 or 4 years?
Andrew Bonfield:
Ross, so if you remember, when we -- at Investor Day, we actually talked about it in terms of cash coverage rather than actually in earnings coverage. And actually in cash coverage, even when our expectations are of the low cycle, is that we would expect to actually pay out no more than 50% to 60% of free cash flow in dividends even in the low end of the cash flow cycle. Obviously cash is slightly different. If you plot cash against earnings per share, there are obviously differences in the way because obviously, if you are in a downward cycle from a revenues perspective, obviously sometimes that actually is positive from a cash flow perspective if you are reducing working capital through that period of time. So there are puts and takes as to why you can't correlate it exactly to EPS, but it does reflect our confidence. So obviously we do have -- expect both cash flows and operating margins to be positive and to reflect our Investor Day targets through all parts of the cycle as we move forward.
Ross Gilardi:
So in saying that, Andrew, just to do the math for everybody, I mean, it sounds like in your view you think you're going to do at least $10 of free cash flow at the bottom of the cycle.
Andrew Bonfield:
Obviously we said 4 billion to 6 -- I think it's $4 billion to $6 billion was our range that we talked about, on Investor Day, of cash flow. So obviously, yes, you can work that back through in the math.
Ross Gilardi:
Okay. And then just on China excavator market share
James Umpleby:
So this is Jim. So market share in any area of the world tends to be -- is always fluid and dynamic. We've talked previously about the fact that we are introducing new products in China, our GC product line. Our dealers continue to build up their capability with better coverage, so it's a whole variety of issues. And again it's a very dynamic situation, but we're confident in our ability to compete in China long term. And we demonstrate the ability to do that, but there will be fluctuations on a short-term basis up or down. That's just part of the deal.
Operator:
Your next question is coming from Noah Kaye from Oppenheimer.
Noah Kaye:
Jim, you mentioned progress this quarter with respect to shortening product lead times. Can you provide some more color around that? I guess, particularly, what's been accomplished internally versus a function of easing pressure from some of these inventory reductions? What have you actually accomplished in terms of making the supply chain and production more nimble?
James Umpleby:
Yes. It's a combination of a variety of factors. We had discussed in previous calls that with the sharp increase in volume in 2017 and 2018 many of our suppliers struggled to allow us to help the retailers we provide to given that period of rapidly increasing demand. So there's been improvement in the supply base because, as I mentioned in my initial remarks, we've also been very focused on becoming more efficient within our factories, reducing lead times, applying lean. So really it's a combination of all those factors.
Noah Kaye:
And then on mining, maybe a question about how your customers are viewing autonomy relative to other CapEx priorities. You mentioned the retrofit offering. You've announced several greenfield projects. We did see a case recently, I believe, where one of your large mining customers was considering going autonomous but then decided to overhaul its existing fleet and focus on productivity. So I guess the question is, is that the trend or the exception? Is CapEx discipline generally holding back around a reduction of autonomous haulage? Or does this 30% productivity improvement from autonomy provide enough of a step change in fleet profitability that it would actually drive companies to replace or retrofit fleets earlier than typical?
James Umpleby:
We've seen a lot of interest and activity in autonomy. I think, if you look at that 30% productivity increase, it really can be a game changer for many of our customers. Obviously every customer is in a very different situation. They could be a coal customer. They could be as in a variety of commodities. So customers make decisions based on their particular financial situation, but we're very, very pleased at the adoption rates that we're seeing in autonomy in the last year or so. You mentioned the greenfield projects. Again, we do believe it's a game changer, and we're very bullish about the outlook for that product capability.
Operator:
Your next question is coming from Ann Duignan for JPMorgan Securities.
Ann Duignan:
Yes. Maybe you could address the comments you made earlier about Asia Pacific sales. I think you said sales outside of China were weaker than expected. If you could expand on that. And then what specifically are you seeing in China in terms of end market demand and the fundamentals? Any green shoots in that region?
James Umpleby:
Ann, starting then with your last question first. So on China, the industry, as you know, for us is mostly hydraulic excavators 10 tonnes above. And the industry continues to be strong. So given the fact that that's the majority of our market in China, we have not seen a decline there. So that's a positive. As I did mention earlier, outside of China and Japan we have seen some weakness in construction over the last few months.
Ann Duignan:
Where specifically?
James Umpleby:
Country-wise, I think it's pretty well dispersed over the Asia region outside of those 2 countries.
Andrew Bonfield:
And Ann, just remember most of our revenues in those markets are basically China and Japan. So that is the bulk. I mean these other markets tend to be relatively small compared to China and Japan.
Ann Duignan:
Okay. And my follow-up is you've got 130 days of inventories on hand as of the end of Q3. Where would you expect inventories to end at year-end? And is your assumption at this point that end market demand is flat going into next year? I mean, what are the downside risks that we'll go into next year having to underproduce retails? Are you comfortable that you'll have rightsized your own inventories by year-end?
Andrew Bonfield:
Yes. So Ann, as we look out -- I mean, are you talking about CAT inventories or dealer inventories? I think you're taking about CAT [indiscernible] -- yes, yes.
Ann Duignan:
CAT inventories based on then there's 130 days versus 119 a year ago.
Andrew Bonfield:
Yes. So the rise in that -- obviously there is a lag between, actually as we slow production down, ordering components and so forth before it actually flows all through in today's sales. So obviously you're also reflecting based on days sales, which are also impacted by things like dealer inventory as well. So that has some impacts unless you've -- you take them into account, but the bigger -- we are looking obviously inventory. We do normally expect a normal seasonal pattern, which is actually inventories to reduce in Q4, but obviously as we talk at the moment, obviously we're looking at actually reducing material purchases to reflect the production declines we've spoken about. But that should rightsize itself. As we move into 2020, we would expect to be in a pretty normal position.
Operator:
Your next question is coming from Stanley Elliott from Stifel.
Stanley Elliott:
Quick question. Is there a way to quantify where you will finish 2019 in terms of the service sales versus the 2016 -- 2026 targets? And then also, you've done a nice job of developing a lot of this in house. Is this something the path will continue forward, or is there something that you'll need to look outside the organization with M&A?
James Umpleby:
Yes, Stanley, what we intend to do is, when we announce our fourth quarter results, we will release our ME&T service sales so you'll get a sense of how we're doing. And as we talked about at Investor Day, it won't be a straight line up, all right? It can be impacted by a whole variety of factors in terms of rebuilds and what's going on. And we're making investments in digital and other things. To answer your question
Operator:
Your next question is coming from Timothy Thein from Citi.
Timothy Thein:
So the question is on orders and relative to the guidance that you've provided in terms of what you think end user demand and dealer inventories do in the fourth quarter. I'm curious how you think orders play into this. And presumably you have maybe a bit less year-end budget flush than prior years, but just curious to get your thoughts as to how that plays out. And help us in terms of think about a range in terms of where year-end backlog may end.
Andrew Bonfield:
Yes. So as we look out, obviously if you look where we are on backlog at the moment, it's impacted by a number of factors. One of them, obviously primary, is dealer's expectations of inventory reductions. It depends on where we end. Obviously the big unknown factor is what is dealer's expectations of future growth going to be at the end of the year because that will impact their order pattern in Q4. So it really is a function of that. As it stands at the moment, you would -- obviously the backlog decline in Q3 reflects a lot of the dealer desire to reduce their inventories, which will -- obviously the $0.9 billion. It depends whether they decide whether they would like to reduce inventories further in 2020, and then at this point in time, we just don't knows about that. That's too early for us to tell.
Operator:
Your next question is coming from Jerry Revich from Goldman Sachs.
Jerry Revich:
All right, yes. Jim, I'm wondering if you can talk about what you folks are seeing in terms of the forward-looking parts demand indicators for your resource business as we've seen the useful life assumptions get pushed out by the miners. Presumably you have pretty good visibility on major rebuilds coming up. Is 2020 a major inflection? And then you've spoke about the moving pieces in the market given the economic uncertainty. Can you just talk about when -- based on the project and work that you anticipate, when do you expect resources will go back to growing the backlog as we, hopefully, see an acceleration towards more replacement-type levels of demand?
James Umpleby:
Yes. Thank you. So for Resource Industries, our rebuild activity and parts activity has been strong and we expect that to continue to be strong, so we're not looking forward to a -- significantly an increase or a decrease. It's been strong and we think that will continue.
Andrew Bonfield:
Yes. And as far as actually when do we expect the -- [indiscernible] point about what is the timing of any bounce, the -- on sort of particularly around power fleet and replacement, I think it's really, really difficult for us to see when that will happen, Jerry, to put a particular time line to it. I think obviously, based on all the stats that we're looking at, we do expect it to happen. It's just a matter of time of that, and that really depends on miners' views of their outlook. And obviously, as we said, everything apart from coal is investible, so it's not the investment decision. It's probably their view of the outlook in particular.
James Umpleby:
Well, just given the history of the last 10 years, I believe that miners will continue to be cautious here. So again I think it'll be a multiyear increase, so it'll gradually get better, as opposed -- we probably won't see the volatility that we've seen in the past, either up or down, which frankly will be a positive thing for us and the industry, to have it be more steady, more of a steady increase over several years than -- again, than volatility we've seen previously.
Jerry Revich:
Okay. And Andrew, on the free cash flow number at the trough that you spoke about at the Analyst Day, what level of working capital contribution are you folks embedding? I think, in prior cycles, it's generally been $1.5 billion to $2 billion of positive free cash flow, as inventories have come down. Is that what you're contemplating relative to that trough number?
Andrew Bonfield:
Yes, yes. So actually the -- to correct the number
Operator:
Your next question is coming from Mig Dobre from Robert W. Baird.
Mircea Dobre:
Just looking to clarify some earlier comments on the dealer inventory destock. So you're exiting the year with an additional $500 million of inventory at dealer level year-over-year. So if we're assuming that retail sales are flat in 2020, would that allow you to produce the retail demand? Or is there additional destocking that would be needed?
Andrew Bonfield:
So Mig, I need just remind you again it's dealers who make those decisions about their inventory levels. It's not us. Availability and all those things can play a part. Ultimately, at the end of the day, given the lead time for production and the fact that dealers don't want to miss revenues, they'll make decisions based on that and what their expectations are of the future. Obviously, when we look at it, we believe that the level of dealer inventory is within the range of probability that we would expect, the comfort level that we've talked about, 3 to 4 months. And it stays in that range. Obviously there can be movements within that range which aren't necessarily we're going to have control. They are dealer decisions.
James Umpleby:
And again just given the external environment, the uncertainty in the dynamic environment we're in, we believe we're well positioned regardless of what happens positive or negative in 2020. We have -- we shortened our lead times. We have an appropriate level of -- our dealers have set up an appropriate level of inventory, so we think we're prepared either way.
Mircea Dobre:
Okay. Understood. And then my follow-up is really on the levers that you have to manage your costs as we're seeing some volume fluctuation here. I mean, if I'm looking at incentive comp, it came down modestly from last quarter. As we look going forward, how do you think about any restructuring or any other actions that you might have to undertake if indeed volumes remain weak? Or do you feel like at this point you've got enough flexibility within your cost structure to be able to handle that without any meaningful moves?
James Umpleby:
So we continually evaluate our cost structure. There's a number of things that we're working on. Andrew mentioned some things that we're doing looking at our back-office costs, if you will. So we're -- we have some things, projects that we started there. We're looking at material costs. That's certainly a big lever for us; and that's one of the things that we're working on, both direct and indirect costs. We continue to look at ways to become more efficient. So again, we're continually doing that. We won't make a call as to whether or not we'll have major restructuring or not. Again, we'll see what the market brings to us over the next few months. Either way, we're ready. We'll be ready to respond.
Jennifer Driscoll:
Okay. And that's our last question. Jim?
James Umpleby:
Well, thank you for your questions. We really appreciate your interest. We'll continue to execute our strategy, with a focus on services, expanding offerings and operational excellence, to deliver long-term profitable growth. And we look forward to chatting with you again next quarter. Thank you.
Jennifer Driscoll:
Thanks, Jim. Thanks, Andrew and everyone who joined us on the call today. Before we close, let me point out Slide 16, where we're providing our preliminary 2020 earnings dates. If you have any questions, please reach out to Rob or me. You can reach Rob at [email protected]. And I'm at [email protected]. Our general phone number for investor relations is 309-675-4549. And now let me ask Catherine, our operator, to conclude the call.
Operator:
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude today's conference call. You may disconnect your phone lines at this time, and have a wonderful day. Thank you for your participation.
Operator:
Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Caterpillar 2Q 2019 Analyst Conference. At this time, all participants have been placed on a listen-only mode. And we will open the floor for your questions and comments after the presentation. It is now my pleasure to turn the floor over to your host, Jennifer Driscoll. Ma’am, the floor is yours.
Jennifer Driscoll:
Thanks, Catherine. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Caterpillar second quarter earnings call. Joining us today are Jim Umpleby, Chairman of the Board and CEO; Andrew Bonfield, CFO; and Kyle Epley, Vice President of our Global Finance Services Division. We’ve provided slides to accompany the presentation. You can find them along with our earnings news release in the Investors section of the caterpillar.com under Events & Presentations. Today, we will make forward-looking statements, which are subject to risks and uncertainties. We will also make assumptions that could cause our actual results to be different than the information discussed. For details on factors that individually or in aggregate could cause actual results to vary materially from our projections, please refer to our recent SEC filings and the forward-looking statements reminder in today’s news release. As indicated on last quarter's call, we're not reporting adjusted profit per share again this quarter, as restructuring costs are expected to be lower in 2019. It’s our intention to report adjusted profit per share at the end of the first -- fourth quarter of 2019 to exclude any mark-to-market gain or loss for the re-measurement of pension and any other post-employment benefit plans, as well as any other discrete items. As a reminder, our U.S. GAAP-based guidance for profit per share continues to include the benefit of the $0.31 discrete tax item we recognized in the first quarter. Please keep in mind that Caterpillar has copyrighted this call. We expressly prohibit use of any portion of the call without our written approval. Before I turn the call over to Jim, let me inform you about a change we're making due to investor preferences around the timing of earnings calls. Beginning next quarter, we plan to shift our earnings call to begin at 8:30 AM Eastern Time. This timing allows us to conclude our call before the U.S. stock market opens. Accordingly, we also plan to accelerate the news release timing to 6:30 AM Eastern Time beginning next quarter. And, with that, I now turn the call over to Jim.
Jim Umpleby:
Thank you, Jennifer. Good morning to everyone on the call. Please turn to slide 3 for our second quarter highlights. Sales and revenues this quarter rose 3%, to $14.4 billion. Operating profit rose 2% to $2.2 billion. Profit per share of $2.83 was slightly ahead of last year's record second quarter of $2.82. We delivered strong operating cash flow of $2 billion in the quarter. At our Investor Day in May, we announced our intention to return substantially all free cash flow to shareholders through a combination of dividend growth and more consistent share repurchases. As previously announced, we recently increased the quarterly dividend by 20% to $1.03 per share or $4.12 on an annualized basis. So far in 2019, we paid dividends of almost $1 billion. In addition, we repurchased about $1.4 billion in company stock this quarter, which brings the total to about $2.1 billion for the year. From a top line perspective, we experienced strong sales in the quarter. Overall, demand remains positive. While some customers appear to be more cautious about making large capital expenditures, including in oil and gas, we continue to expect modest sales growth for the year. We are only two-and-a-half years into our recovery in many of our end markets. While we had strong top line sales, we experienced some unfavorable changes in mix and higher-than-expected restructuring charges. Andrew will discuss both of these items later in the call. Although, we are guiding you to the lower end of the profit per share range, we still expect 2019 profit per share to be higher than the record we set in 2018. Now, let's review over 2019 expectations for the external environment on Slide 4. In Construction Industries, we expect -- we continue to expect North America will be a positive for us. This is due in part to infrastructure spending at the state and local level although we expect that to be partly offset by weakness in residential construction. Turning to Asia-Pacific, we expect continued pressure from competitive pricing in China, partly offset by growth in other areas in Asia-Pacific. EAME is a mixed bag. Sales in Europe are projected to be steady, while Africa and the Middle East remain weak. Latin America continues to improve from very low levels. We expect demand for heavy construction as well as quarry and aggregate equipment to remain strong in Resource Industries this year. Most commodity prices remain at investable levels. Mining equipment sales continue to improve and large mining truck sales have further room for growth to reach their normal replacement levels. We continue to anticipate that miners will remain disciplined in our capital expenditures in these early stages of their multiyear recovery. The Energy & Transportation space is more mixed amid continued volatility in oil prices and tightened oil and gas capital spending. In reciprocating engines, we expect our sales into the Permian Basin will strengthen in the fourth quarter as takeaway capacity improves. We expect solar turbines to have a strong fourth quarter as well Progress Rail. Power generation continues to be an area of expected growth. Please turn to Slide 5 for a progress update on our strategy for profitable growth. We continue to execute our strategy by investing in services and expanded offerings, while improving operational excellence. We've been working hard to improve product lead-times. Due to the significant increase in volume during the past two and a half years, we struggle to keep up with demand for some products. This was primarily due to ramp-up issues at our suppliers. We're pleased that product lead-times have improved even though volume remain strong. We have achieved or are close to achieving target lead-times for the vast majority of our products. In Resource Industries, for example, our current scheduled average lead-time now is just 12 weeks, more than a 50% improvement compared to March of 2018 and we had a weighted average of 26 weeks for the entire portfolio. Shorter lead-times allow customers and dealers more flexibility on when to initiate orders. We also continue to focus on enhancing operational excellence including safety. Our safety goal is always zero incidents. We want our people to return home safely every day. One of the metrics we track is the number of recordable injuries per 200,000 hours worked. May and June were two of our best safety months on record. We intend to keep the momentum going and make it a great year for safety. Earlier this year, we announced a goal to double ME&T services sales to $28 billion by 2026. Services increased customer value by improving asset utilization and availability, while reducing owning and operating costs. We continue to invest to expand our digital capabilities enabling services growth and we remain on track toward our goal of one million connected assets by the end of the year. Product rebuilds and reap hours are just one of our services helping customers to be more successful. Progress Rail recently won a contract to repower several locomotives for our U.K. rail customer. The new E&P engines will meet EU emission standards and the first three powers is expected to be delivered next year. Repowers and modernizations are both areas as our locomotive customers seek greater utilization of existing fleets. Many of our meetings with mining customers these days include discussions around technologies like autonomy and automation and how they improve safety and productivity. We have recently been selected for three greenfield projects that will further grow our penetration of autonomy with mining customers in South America and Australia. More than 220 tracks have accumulated 50 million kilometers of autonomous driving in fleets already deployed. Our autonomous solutions are now being utilized by seven customers across 11 sites and three continents. We believe that we are at a tipping point for adoption of autonomy and mining. For example, this quarter we announced that we will be working with Rio Tinto to create a technologically advanced iron ore mine in Western Australia. We will supply and support mining machines, automation and enterprise technology systems for this project. Working closely with WesTrac, our local dealer, Rio Tinto plans to create an automotive mine operation using data analytics and integration to enhance safety, optimize production, use mining machine utilization and lower costs. We also continue to expand our offerings, enable us to continue to grow by addressing the diverse needs of our customers around the world. This year we introduced the first Cat-articulated truck GC model the 740 GC. As you may know the GC designation means the machine target segment that we refer to as life cycle value. This segment is for customers who have lighter duty applications or work in less extreme conditions. They value simple, tough machines that perform well with Caterpillar quality and product support. The 740 is particularly attractive in the North American rental market where it offers an additional value proposition in its size class. That said the machine is also gaining traction in every region of the world. Interest in the 740 GC has been strong with year-to-date demand exceeding our initial forecast. With that, I will turn the call over to Andrew for a closer look at our financials.
Andrew Bonfield:
Thank you, Jim, and good morning, everyone. Starting with slide 6, I will begin with a closer look of results. Then I'll touch on backlog and dealer inventories before turning to our outlook for the second half and full year. Starting with the headlines. Sales and revenues for the quarter totaled $14.4 billion, up 3% from last year's quarter, driven by Construction Industries and Resource Industries. Overall operating profit increased by 2% or $46 million to $2.213 billion. Second quarter profit per share was $2.83 was up by $0.01 versus the prior year's record second quarter. There were a number of factors, which impacted the overall performance of the quarter. First, negative mix had an unfavorable impact on profits. This has bolstered the product and the segment length of level. Second, oil and gas sales remained weak as we wait for the Permian takeaway issues to be resolved. We now expect this to occur in the fourth quarter. Finally we booked significant restructuring expenses in the quarter, which means that we expect this spend to be immaterial for the rest of the year. We completed $1.4 billion in share repurchases in the second quarter and paid $492 million in dividends as part of our commitment to returning substantially all of our free cash flow to shareholders. We also announced a 20% increase in the dividend effective from the third quarter, which reflects our confidence in the company's ability to continue to grow cash flows. We ended the quarter with strong liquidity including $7.4 billion of cash on hand. Let me dive deeper into the top line on slide 7. Consolidated sales growth was 3%, reflecting price realization in ME&T of 3% with gains in the three primary segments. Volumes grew by 2% and the demand environment remain strong. As we reported this morning, machine retail sales to users grew by 4% during the quarter. Looking by segment, construction industry sales and revenues rose 5% led by price realization including the 2019 mid-year increase as well as the increase on the 1st of January. Sales and revenues from Resource Industries increased by 11% fueled by higher equipment demand and favorable price realization. Energy & Transportation sales and revenues declined by 4%, primarily due to continued softness in oil and gas as well as timing challenges and project in locomotive deliveries. Our financial product segment revenue rose 5%. Currency pressures reflected the dollar strengthening principally against euro and Australian dollar. Overall, our top line growth reflected the customers and dealers confidence in the value proposition of our equipment. If you move to slide 8, I will walk through the changes in operating profit. As shown on the chart, price realization and low SG&A and R&D expenses closed the operating profit increase contributing $427 million and $118 million respectively. Financial Products also added $14 million to operating profits for the quarter. Manufacturing cost increased by $328 million, due to higher material costs including $17 million in tariffs, variable rate on burden including the loss of Brazilian incentives and warranty expense. Unfavorable sales volumes about $190 million, primarily due to mix changes in both Construction Industries and Energy & Transportation. In Construction Industries, the mix of sales reflected an increase in smaller products in North America. The mix in ME&T reflects the changes in the application mix including smaller engines. Importantly, price realization more than covered higher manufacturing cost this quarter an improvement versus Q1. We also continue to expect price realization to fully cover higher manufacturing cost for the full year. It's now been a year since tariffs were implemented, and input prices are moderating. Freight costs have also stabilized. Currency lowered sales by two percentage points and reduced operating profit by about $20 million. Moving down the P&L. Lower short-term incentive compensation expense impacted SG&A and R&D favorably, while also benefiting manufacturing costs. We expect 2019 short-term incentive compensation expense to be about $600 million lower than in 2018. Before taking a look at the segment results, I want to comment on how the second quarter trended against our first quarter performance. Second quarter sales rose versus the first quarter driven by seasonal trends higher North American construction industry sales, sales of original equipment in Resource Industries, and higher rail service revenue. From an operating profit perspective, the second quarter was about flat compared to the first quarter. The favorable sales performance was offset by negative mix and a negative operating leverage due to lower absorption cost into inventories driven by the reduction in production levels as we reduce Caterpillar inventories. The operating profit margin contracted by 110 basis points. From a segment perspective, the sequential margin deterioration was highest in Resource Industries which as you know had a very strong first quarter. The change in Resource Industries operating margin is due to unfavorable operating leverage from inventory changes coupled with higher warranty expenses. To keep it in perspective Resource Industries in the first and second quarters had the highest profit margins since 2012, a year when sales were twice as high as they are now. Year-to-date restructuring charges are $158 million. We don't expect these to recur at these levels in the second half. We still expect the maximum of $200 million of restructuring expenses for the full year. Now let's look at the performance of each segment in the second quarter versus the prior year beginning with Construction Industries on slide 9. Construction Industries had a record quarter for both sales and profit. Sales from revenues totaled $6.5 billion again a 5% versus the prior year. Construction sales increase in North America by $774 million due to demand changes including dealer inventories and price realization. Sales were flat in the Latin America where construction remained at low levels. Declines in Asia-Pacific reflected continued aggressive competitive pricing the timing of the selling season as well as unfavorable currency index. Weakness in EAME was primarily due to a weaker euro. Construction industry's profit increased by $93 million or 8% to a record $1.247 billion, the segment profit margin of 19.3% increased by 60 basis points. The favorable impact of higher volume and price realization was mostly offset by higher manufacturing costs plus unfavorable mix. Now let's go to slide 10 and look at Resource Industries. Resource Industries sales were $2.8 billion up 11% from the second quarter of 2018. The $274 million sales uplift reflects increases in demand and favorable price realization. Sales growth in Resource Industries was driven by strong mining market nonresidential construction and quarry and aggregate customers. Segment profit of $481 million rose 17%. Resource Industries profit margin improved to 17.2% up 90 basis points. The improvement was primarily due to favorable price realization and higher sales volume. Growth in original equipment remain strong as miners look to replace aging equipment. If you turn to slide 11, Energy & Transportation sales in the second quarter were $5.5 billion down 4%. Power generation sites increased by 3% on continued demand to large piece or reciprocating engines. The other applications were lower sales volume and unfavorable currency impact. Of note sales into oil and gas applications decreased by $162 million or 11% due to the timing of turbine project deliveries in North America in last year's quarter, lower demand from new equipment in the Permian Basin -- which were partly offset by higher turbine sales and production applications in EAME. Industrial sales declined by 1% with gains in most regions, more than offset by currency-related impacts in the EAME. Transportation sales declined by 3%, primarily due to the timing of locomotive deliveries and reduced marine activity in North America, partially offset by higher sales trough rail services. Segment profit for Energy & Transportation totaled $886 million, down $126 million, or 12%. The segment profit margin contracted by 150 basis points to 16.2%. Energy & Transportation margins reflected lower sales volume, including an unfavorable mix of products and slightly higher manufacturing cost, partially offset by price realization. Turning to slide 12. Let me touch on dealer inventories and backlog, which play into our assumptions for the year. Dealer machines and engine inventories increased by about $500 million during the second quarter compared with an increase of about $100 million during the second quarter of 2018. The largest impact was in Construction Industries, where dealers decreased inventory in the prior year's period. We previously have projected that total dealer inventories would be about flat to the full year. Based on current inventory levels, we now expect that dealer inventories will increase for the full year by about $900 million, driven by Construction Industries and Resource Industries. Whilst dealer inventory levels are closer to the top end of our range, at this time we are comfortable that this level is supported by positive end-user demand. At the end of the second quarter of 2019, the order backlog was $15 billion, about $1.9 billion lower than the first quarter of 2019 and down $2.7 billion from the balance at the end of the second quarter of 2018. The order backlog decreased across three -- all three primary segments with the largest declines in Construction Industries and Resource Industries. In Construction Industries, we connect the backlog to client to slowing orders due to growth in dealer inventory. Also, keep in mind, the Construction Industries had a record quarter and it's not unusual for backlog to decline in CI in the second quarter itself. In Resource Industries, we improved throughput in factories and improved lead times, as Jim has described. And remember, orders do tend to lumpy. As a point of reference, the total decline in the backlog of $2.7 billion since Q2 last year is about offset by the increase in dealer inventories for the same time period. Now let's walk through our assumptions for the 2019 outlook. We now expect profit per share to be near the low end of our range of $12.06 to $13.06, assuming a recovery in oil and gas near the end of the year and dealers working through part of the higher machine inventory levels. Quotation activities unchanged, the assumed price realization offsets manufacturing costs and as I've said, restructuring costs for the remainder of the year will be significantly lower with the maximum spend of $200 million. Other key assumptions are broadly unchanged, including $250 million to $350 million in tariffs for the year. We expect short-term incentive compensation to be a tailwind of about $600 million. We now project capital expenditures of about $1.3 billion. The estimated annual tax rate is unchanged at 26%, excluding discrete tax items. Consistent with our intention to return substantially all free cash flow to shareholders, we are now projecting share repurchases in the second half to be similar to the first half. In fact including all shares repurchased since the 1st of January, 2019, we expect to reduce our total shares outstanding by about 9% by the end of 2019, all the while executing our strategy and investing for long-term profitable growth. This reduction in share count is fully reflected in our guidance. Looking ahead to the third quarter we will continue to execute our strategy including making appropriate additional investments for longer term profitable growth. We anticipate stronger results in the fourth quarter including increases in demand from oil and gas and rail customers. So, finally, let's turn to Slide 13 and recap today's key takeaways. We grew sales 3%, operating profit rose 2%, profit per share was comparable with the second quarter of last year. We have maintained our profit per share outlook, although we expect it to be at the lower end of the range of $12.06 to $13.06. Again this adjustment reflects mix changes, a fourth quarter recovery in oil and gas, and dealers working through higher machine inventory levels, partially offset by lower restructuring charges in the second half of the year. We still expect modest sales growth this year and profit growth on top of last year's record results. We are also on track including 2019 buybacks to retire a total about 9% of our shares outstanding by the 31st of December and our financial position remain strong. With that, let me hand it back to Jennifer to begin the question-and-answer portion of the call.
Jennifer Driscoll:
Catherine, thank you. If you could now queue up the questions.
Operator:
Certainly. Ladies and gentlemen, the floor is now open for questions. [Operator Instructions] Your first question is coming from Rob Wertheimer from Millennium Capital. Sir, your line is live.
Rob Wertheimer:
Thank you, and good morning, everyone.
Jennifer Driscoll:
Good morning.
Jim Umpleby:
Good morning, Rob.
Rob Wertheimer:
So, thanks for the color on the dealer inventory. I think that will be something investors want to talk about. I wanted to ask for just a little bit more clarity around it. I mean obviously you don't control what the dealers do and it's their own decisions. But do you have a sense of what led to the change of the building a little bit of inventory through the year versus the prior expectation? It doesn't seem like sales have inflected up sharply since then. And then just wrap my follow-up into it. I mean is the $900 million gap between what you thought and what sounds like it will be, is that the difference between your ideal level and where it may end versus the downtime risk for ongoing? Or maybe if you just characterize how big that gap is versus ideal? Thanks.
Jim Umpleby:
Hey Rob, it's Jim, I'll take the first part of that question and maybe ask Andrew to do the second part. So, as you mentioned dealers are independent businesses and they control their own inventory levels. Inventory levels were lower than they normally are and with that increase, we're back up to what is considered more of a normal level. I did talk about the fact that we had -- we have been successful in reducing our product lead times which also has an impact here as well. So, that gives dealers a lot more flexibility in terms of where they place orders. Andrew I'll let you have the second.
Andrew Bonfield:
On the $900 million reduction, we expect for the remainder of the year, reduction to about $900 million. I mean we are slightly at the high end; we'd like to be in the middle of the range. We keep a range for each segment. We're always comfortable being at sort of midpoint in the range. This gets us around about the midpoint from our perspective, Rob. So there would be potentially further reduction, but we were very low in that range previously. And as Jim indicated they did have some impact on availability. Ultimately at the end of the day, we want to make sure that dealers have the right amount of inventory to be able to meet customer demand and probably there was given that the challenges we've had previously there may have been some loss of sales at dealer level as a result of not being under supply quickly enough.
Rob Wertheimer:
Okay. I beg your pardon. So with the -- I guess reduction from here to the end of the year, you're saying you're going to be roughly in the middle of the range not certainly low of where you'd like to be? Is that what you're saying?
Andrew Bonfield:
Yeah, that would characterize it. Yes, Rob.
Rob Wertheimer:
Okay, thank you.
Operator:
Your next question is coming from Jamie Cook from Credit Suisse. Your line is live.
Jamie Cook:
Hi, good morning. I just wanted to follow-up on the mix issues in the second quarter, how much that hurt earnings and what's implied for the back part of the year. And then just within oil and gas specifically I think before you said you had expected orders to pick up in the back part of the year in the second half now you're seeing the first -- fourth quarter. I guess just, sort of, what gives you confidence that you should see that acceleration? And how much cushion could we potentially get from solar in the fourth quarter? Thank you.
Jim Umpleby:
Good morning Jamie, it's Jim. So our oil and gas guidance for the year is dependent on certainly solar having a strong fourth quarter. Solar has as you know the lead times are relatively long. They have the orders in hand to -- for the new equipment side to execute that. There's always some variability in service, but we are expecting a big fourth quarter from Solar and fully expect them to make that happen. We are also expecting in the fourth quarter some recovery in recip engine sales in North America as the Permian constraint issues continue to be resolved.
Andrew Bonfield:
Jamie on the mix issues, obviously, the mix did have quite an impact in the quarter. If you look at we saw a small increase in volume, the sales level but a negative move in the operating profit level. Principally in CI that was mostly due to the fact that we also sold more small machines in the quarter while they have similar margins that can be quite sensitive to be able to mix impact. And then, obviously, there's also a segmental mix and those mixed within E&T similar mix issue in E&T particularly with low smaller engines being sold. And then also there's a segmental mix impact, obviously, because E&T does have very strong margins and obviously the margin deterioration impacted the reported mix as we look at variable margin in that business. All of those factors have been built into our guidance, so we have put that into why we expect to be at the low end of the range along with a delay particularly in oil and gas sales.
Jamie Cook:
Okay, thank you. I’ll get back in queue.
Operator:
Your next question is coming from David Raso from Evercore ISI. Your line is live.
David Raso:
Hi, good morning. I'm trying to think through the second half implied guidance. Just so we set the framework. It looks like you're implying revenues down say about $500 million first half to second half. But the EPS grows about $0.25 to $0.50. And I'm just trying to understand I can see about $0.15 from lower restructuring sequentially. It maybe about $0.05 from a lower share count so it's about $0.20. But then I would have figured rest would have been you see better price cost second half than first half, more than offsetting some overhead absorption issues with the lower volume. But I thought earlier you made a comment price cost maybe I missed it. So it's sort of neutral the rest of the year. Can you clarify that? Just trying to get the EPS walk first half to second half.
Andrew Bonfield:
Yeah. Thanks, David. And – yeah, so first of all, we don't give sales guidance, so your assumption around sales maybe slightly different from our assumptions. So that may have been part of the impact that we're seeing. As Jim indicated, we do expect both rail and solar and oil and gas to pick up in the fourth quarter. All of those will have an impact and remember that obviously E&T is down for the first half of the year, when you look at that. So as you think about it from a top line perspective, there maybe some variability, we see versus where you are on your top line. With regards to margins and operating margins obviously there are seasonal factors that come into play. As we did indicate, we're all starting to see a little bit of relief from pricing – from underlying manufacturing cost increases. Obviously, the tariffs we saw – start now anniversary-ing freight costs, started to pick up in the second quarter of last year. So those factors will have less of an impact on overall manufacturing cost. Offset against a little bit will be some variability, if we do actually take down some production. Obviously, we'll have a little bit lower inventory absorption. So those are all factors, which we weighed into our guidance. Then, obviously, we are starting to see some things like steel cost come down, steel obviously we do a lot of our steel buying on a contractual basis, and there is a lag, but we're all starting to see some of those things flow through as well into the second half.
David Raso:
And then trying to set-up the look into 2020. We've already discussed the inventory but for the backlog. Seasonally, you can see how CI might continue to go down. But when you think about your commentary, the rest of the year on mining and engines E&T are we making the assumption into the backlog is somewhat bottoming out here, because RI and E&T offset CI sequentially? We're just trying to sort get a baseline kind of exiting the year. Have we seen generally speaking the bottom of the backlogs with this $15 billion?
Andrew Bonfield:
Yeah. I mean, I think David one of the problems with focusing very much on the backlog is remind you that this is reflected about dealer demand. There would have been some elements of as a result of an ability to delays in supplying orders availability of product that dealers may actually have been putting slots in the queue and we have seen that happen before and that may have happened this time as well. Obviously, what does happen with the order backlog is it is lumpy, particularly in places like RI, rail, solar. So we are keeping an eye on it. There's nothing indicating that from a retail, if you look at the retail stats just remind you they are up again. So there's nothing indicating underlying customer demand is changing. This maybe behavior by dealers and their ordering patterns as well.
Jim Umpleby:
And, again, just to expand upon how you think about the lumpiness in Solar and Rail. Obviously, if you have a big fourth quarter, there is a lot of shipments that were in the backlog, obviously the backlog will go down. Again, that's – it happens every year that's the nature of the beast.
David Raso:
Okay. I'm sorry, Jim. So a part of the $15 billion, you would argue is reflective of why you're confident in the fourth quarter shipments of those businesses, but at the same time it could help the backlog down from here there aren't new orders to fill it in so to speak?
Jim Umpleby:
Yes. And certainly and again that happens every year. So -- I say every year typically, Solar in particular has a big fourth quarter, so we would expect again shipments occur, backlog goes down. But again the business continues to be healthy and good quotation activity. So we would expect that there'll be a normal seasonal pattern in Solar in terms of backlog and inventory.
David Raso:
Terrific, thank you very much.
Operator:
Your next question is coming from Ross Gilardi from Bank of America. Your line is live.
Ross Gilardi:
Hey good morning, guys.
Jim Umpleby:
Good morning, Ross.
Ross Gilardi:
I was just wondering if you could give a little more color on the three new Greenfield sites for autonomous, you know the timing there. Are these retrofits or new trucks and equipment? And is that a positive driver into 2020? Or is it much further out?
Jim Umpleby:
Yes, it's a multiyear. We're going to make deliveries over a number of years and so they are new trucks. Again these are Greenfield sites. So again a lot of new technology, but the deliveries will occur not just in one year, it'll be over more than one year.
Ross Gilardi:
Okay. And then can you talk a little bit about your confidence in the China excavator outlook for the second half of 2019? I mean, it sounds like your full year outlook is broadly unchanged and as you’ve cited there is some competitive pressure there. I mean, how much visibility do you have on that business for the rest of 2019?
Andrew Bonfield:
Based on everything that we see, we believe that overall the market demand will be stable. We have mentioned the fact that we have some competitor pricing pressures from local competitors. We're certainly taking steps to ensure our competitiveness long term in China. We're introducing a number of new GC products that will help us compete as well. But again we are -- we feel good about our forecast there in China.
Ross Gilardi:
And then just lastly Andrew, you mentioned your share count should be down 9% by the end of this year with the buybacks. Beyond 2019, if you did 4 billion to 5 billion in buybacks, I think that will retire about 6% of the share count at today's price. I was just wondering how much of that 6% is fair to assume for -- is offset by share issuance for employees options et-cetera. Just net of equity issuance, I'm just trying to get a better sense for how much the share count should be falling each year beyond this year?
Andrew Bonfield:
Yes. So obviously the 9% -- around 9% is a net number. So that's niche of new issuance. So effectively given that we'd spend 3.8 last year, we expect somewhat to be in the sort of at least the 2.1 in the first quarter -- first half something similar in the second half. If you're doing about 4, you generally retire about 4.5% of the share capital each year.
Ross Gilardi:
Okay. So share count just sort of this base case assumption at the current stock prices is probably falling 4% to 5% a year beyond 2019?
Andrew Bonfield:
Yes. Yes.
Ross Gilardi:
Okay. Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question is coming from Joel Tiss from BMO Capital. Your line is live.
Joel Tiss:
Hey guys, how is it going?
Andrew Bonfield:
Good. How are you?
Joel Tiss:
So just -- it sounds like some pieces you're setting up 2020 to be a little bit more of a difficult year with the incentive comp down, so much this year and the dealer inventory is up a little more. Can you give us some of the pieces that to kind of balance that out? What would be on the other side of that? I'm not asking for forecast just kind of a couple of factors -- bigger factors to think about.
Andrew Bonfield:
Yes. I mean let's remember that we have had quite a tough year in E&T so far. Obviously, Permian takeaway issues are resolved and drilling activity goes up that would be one area where we'd see some upside in 2020. I think if you look also at underlying demand for machines, it remains strong. So, again that's other opportunities for us as we move into 2020. We will always retain our focus on a flexible and competitive cost structure. We want to invest in the right things for the business to drive long-term profitable growth but we still always do need to make sure that we are operating as efficiently as possible and those are other areas where we will continue to see some opportunity to drive growth as we move forward.
Joel Tiss:
That's great. And then my second question is about something you mentioned there too. The cost reductions like it's you guys have done a lot a lot of work there. And it seems like the cost structure is seemingly not as responsive to the fluctuations like quarterly fluctuations in the business. Is that more structural? Or is it cyclical just your kind of scrambling to get stuff out the door? Or can you give us any color behind the scenes of what to think about? Or are those kind of more long-term changes to the company and we can't worry about the near-term results?
Andrew Bonfield:
Yes. I think we don't respond to quarterly -- by quarter movements we're trying to drive the business for the long-term. So, Joel as we look at the cost structure we do try to make sure we got a long-term focus on that and don't do things just for short term cost-cutting measures. We can all do those. We've all seen people do those. Longer term it's not what drives you well because what tends to happen is investment then gets cut off which isn't the right thing to do for long-term shareholder value creation.
Jim Umpleby:
But I would say that Joe we certainly challenge all of our leaders to find ways to become more efficient to reduce cost. So, we still believe we have opportunities over next few years to continue to improve our cost structure. So, again, while -- as Andrew mentioned while continuing to invest in those areas particularly like services like our digital capabilities to drive long-term profitable growth.
Andrew Bonfield:
And so Joel just add one thing on 2020 which I did forget was about Resource Industries. I mean obviously mining we are only in the start of recovery phase and replacement cycle. There is a lot of potential still but there is to run as miners start actually bumping up CapEx. All commodities remain at investable levels so we do expect that to continue to improve as we look out as well.
Joel Tiss:
That's awesome. Thank you so much.
Jennifer Driscoll:
You're welcome.
Operator:
Your next question is coming from Jairam Nathan from Daiwa Capital. Your line is live.
Jairam Nathan:
Hi thanks for taking my question. My question was regarding rail. You mentioned a strong 4Q, but you're seeing some of the implementation of PSR on the railroad side, they are cutting down a number of locomotives they use. And at the same time volumes are starting to decline as well rail volumes. So, I'm just wondering is this expectation of the U.S. or more international?
Jim Umpleby:
Yes, it's really based overall on the backlog that we have in rail for new locomotives. But certainly I mentioned earlier the one example we gave of repower. As our rail business is a direct business and there's a large service element to it as well. So, it is not completely dependent upon new locomotives sales. Having said that, of course, we are expanding internationally. We've shipped our first transit locomotives since we made the acquisition of EMD a number of years ago. So again we are not totally dependent upon new locomotives in North America. We certainly understand the environment, in which we're operating. But again what we're not talking about is an expected strong fourth quarter based on backlog on hand for the rail.
Jairam Nathan:
Thanks. And my last question was on margins on resource, you mentioned warranty expense increased. Can you expand on that? Is that more volume related? Or is there something…?
Andrew Bonfield:
It was a particular issue with a particular product that happened, these things do happen they do tend to be lumpy and that's been a driver in this quarter.
Jairam Nathan:
Okay, thank you. That’s all I had.
Operator:
Your next question is coming from Sameer Rathod from Macquarie Research. Your line is live.
Sameer Rathod:
Thank you for taking my question. There are some -- have been some interesting developments made in electrifying the frack. So my question is how does Caterpillar see this market evolving? Do you think it can post a risk longer term to the diesel engine and parts business? Or do you think the applications are limited? Thank you.
Jim Umpleby:
And I'm sorry, I can barely hear you. Did you say electrification and fracking? Is that the question?
Sameer Rathod:
Yes. Electrification and fracking.
Jim Umpleby:
You bet. So we have been very involved working with customers both on the recip engine side and on the gas turbine side and what people called the e-fracking opportunity. So we are well-positioned to participate in both of those areas. We have sold some gas turbines, which are generator sets that allow customers to do e-fracking. We're also working on recip solutions as well, working with customers. So I believe it will be a mix market with both and we'll see, which one is stronger in the end but we participate in both ways, both for electrification and now also both in our recip engines and with gas turbines. So we're well-positioned to play directly across the value chain.
Sameer Rathod:
Okay. Thanks.
Jim Umpleby:
Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question is coming from Jerry Revich from Goldman Sachs. Your line is live.
Jerry Revich:
Yes hi, good morning.
Jim Umpleby:
Good morning, Jerry.
Andrew Bonfield:
Good morning.
Jerry Revich:
You folks have sounded more positive tone on large mining truck order cadence than I think we've heard from you in a while. Can you just talk about what in your view has driven a slower replacement cycle in this recovery so far? Is it the autonomous decisions that have to be made? And can you just expand a bit more Andrew on your comments that there's a scope for move towards replacement as you think about moving pieces around2020? So it does sound like you expect order decisions to be made, obviously, in advance of 2020 for that to play out. So maybe I can get you to expand on that too?
Jim Umpleby:
Hi, Jerry this is Jim. I'll take it. So we see strong quotation activity on a global basis for all commodities. So as we work directly with our customers and with our dealers there is increasing quotation activity. There's a lot of projects that are being developed. We've talked about some orders that we received. Certainly I believe and I actually hope there’ll be less volatility than will be -- that there has been in the past it will be more of a slow steady ramp up. But the quotation activity is quite strong. And again it's across all commodities.
Jerry Revich:
Okay.
Andrew Bonfield:
And just to add, I mean the pulp feed is at an all-time low since we've been tracking that number in 2013. So, it is an opportunity. Definitely, we do believe that now we will be starting to see replacements solvency come through.
Jim Umpleby:
And we do expect our mining customers to be disciplined in their capital expenditures. So, again, that ties into my earlier comment about more of a slow steady increase than a volatile increase. And they will be again cautious and disciplined. But we expect the business to continue to improve on a slow and steady basis.
Jerry Revich:
Okay. And in Construction Industries, you folks have worked really hard to get the cost structure to where it is today. Given the dealer inventory builds both across new equipment, used equipment and the utilization pressures, I guess, can you talk about what's the potential for you folks to more actively manage orders. You mentioned there are some slots that are potentially placeholders et cetera, so what's the opportunity for you folks to get ahead of the eventual order declines given what some of the leading indicators are doing, cut production earlier to keep the swings from being really painful on the manufacturing base.
Jim Umpleby:
Yes. Just to be clear, so firstly, let me start with the -- we released our retail stats this morning. And so, business is improving. So let's start with that. But certainly shortened lead times is very important. We've been on this for lean journey for a long time and having shorter lead times allows us to respond much more quickly to changes in demand.
Jerry Revich:
Andrew, the count was I guess more focus on North America than overall. So the retail sales were up 7%, the company sales were up 28%, so we're building inventories in North America specifically. So, I'm wondering what the potential to get on in front and cut production early in the cycle?
Andrew Bonfield:
Yes. So we did -- so Jerry part of -- as we -- as I spoke in my comments, we did see some takedown of Caterpillar inventory, finished goods inventory, so we do continue to focus on that. Obviously with lean manufacturing, we are obviously -- we don't hold a lot of finished goods inventory. Most of the inventories held actually in the component levels are actually both in. So actually that is the one thing we continue to focus on. But obviously, we will look at making sure that we don't -- as we said, we will take down dealer inventory in the second half and then we'll have some impact on production base.
Jerry Revich:
Okay. Thank you.
Jennifer Driscoll:
You’re welcome. Next question please?
Operator:
Your next question is coming from Ann Duignan from JPMorgan. Your line is live.
Ann Duignan:
Hi, good morning. If I could turn back to oil and gas, I'd like to really understand your confidence in the fourth quarter pickup in sales. Is this products that dealers have ordered? So it's shipments to dealers? Or is it the rail end-market demand? And if you could just talk about your mix in oil and gas well completion versus drilling, so we know which one is more important to demand for your products. Thank you.
Jim Umpleby:
Ann, so good morning. Again starting -- part of the oil and gas pickup as I mentioned earlier is due to Solar where we have the backlog and the orders on hand. It's a matter of executing always some variability in service, but we feel good about that. So that is part of it. If you go to the Recip side of it, gas compression remains strong. We are expecting an increase in end-user demand for fracking that will impact our business towards the end of the year.
Ann Duignan:
And on the fracking side, is that actually drilling or is that well completions? I'm trying to understand if this one's right or if there's more.
Jim Umpleby:
It's mostly well service.
Ann Duignan:
Okay. Appreciate that. And then my follow-up question is more, if you look back at year-to-date performance, sales are up but in fact adjusted net income is down. So Jim, should we be growing concerns, should investors be growing concerned about your commitment to profitable growth? I mean, I know you can say you're at record levels, but net income is actually down and just the basis year-to-date.
Jim Umpleby:
Yes. So we are so very committed to profitably growing our business and we're making investments to make that happen. And we are -- we talked about this at Investor Day as well that we do expect quarterly variability in our performance, but we are very much focused on improving year to year. We've talked in our call this morning about some of the issues we had in terms of lumpiness in restructuring charges and we had some inventory impact. We do have some mixed impact and we will have just given the nature of our business, we will have quarterly deviations in our performance. But we're really driving for is medium and long-term profitable growth and we're investing to make that happen. We're committed to take on -- to continue to improve our cost structure structurally. I talked about that earlier and we believe we have opportunities there over the next few years to take that on and we're very committed to that profitable growth story. But again, we will have quarterly deviations. There's no question.
Ann Duignan:
And yes, but if I look at six of the last seven quarters your stock has underperformed. So, is there something you can do structurally going forward to help us understand this variability?
Jim Umpleby:
Yes. Again, what we're driving towards is profitably growing our company. And if we profitably grow our company, I believe that will be reflected in the stock price. And we're going to have -- again as we talked earlier, we expect to have another record year in earnings per share this year. It’s another record year.
Ann Duignan:
Okay. I'll leave it there. Thank you.
Jim Umpleby:
Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question is coming from Timothy Thein from Citigroup. Your line is live.
Timothy Thein:
Thank you and good morning. The first question is on RI and specifically, Andrew, you had mentioned earlier that OE was a big driver or a driver for growth in the quarter. So, I'm not sure exactly what that means for part sales. But really the question relates to the sustainability of pricing which was up against some pretty tough comp again in the second quarter. And just, as you see basically the question is the trade-off on as your OE volumes presumably capture a bigger part of the total within mining, how should we expect that trade-off to play out in terms of pricing on OE relative to parts?
Andrew Bonfield:
Yes. So obviously, we did have -- in the first quarter, actually, we had really strong quarter. I think it was a record quarter for part sales within Resource Industries and part of that was driven by the fact obviously, its rebuilds are still continuing. Yes, there will be a mixed impact. It depends on what equipment we’re selling and the relative mix of parts versus and services versus OE. That will be part of why -- how we manage that business. Obviously, the advantage we have on OE is as you improve throughput, you do improve operating leverage. And as I say, we actually have seen these two quarters, the first and the second quarter have been the two best quarters in our eyes since 2012 when actually sales revenues were nearly doubled what they are today. So I think we will see lumpiness, we will see movement that's the nature of that business particularly given the way we actually deliver our products to customers, but we're quite comfortable with the sort of the relative margin performance. And again, we will look at them over time rather than just purely quarter-to-quarter.
Timothy Thein:
Okay. Got it. And then Jim maybe one last one on oil and gas, and specifically your comments to the question recently just on well servicing. A number of the big service companies have commented just in the past few days about cutting CapEx budgets some of them pretty significantly. So I'm just – I just want to come back in terms of kind of what's underlying that assumption that we do get this pickup of recovery in the fourth quarter.
Jim Umpleby:
Yeah, again it's our perception of what's going to happen as the takeaway issue in the Permian are resolved. So I'll leave it there.
Timothy Thein:
All right. Thank you.
Jim Umpleby:
And thank you. I think we have time for one last question.
Operator:
Your last question is coming from Courtney Yakavonis from Morgan Stanley. Your line is live.
Courtney Yakavonis:
Hi. Thanks. Just a couple of clarifications. First on restructuring, can you just help us understand I think the first quarter you said was pretty minimal? So how much of that $158 million was hitting this quarter? And in which segments it was showing up? And then if you could also quantify the warranty charge that was in resources. And then just more broadly when we think about your China business with APAC sales down as much as they were this quarter in construction. How should we be thinking about the margin for that business as you're continuing to introduce these GC products relative to what you had been getting in light of all these competitive pricing pressures?
Andrew Bonfield:
Yes. Courtney, maybe start with restructuring. The charge in the first quarter was $48 million and the second quarter was $110 million. The $48 million is inactive, so you can now always refer back to that. Most of it actually was incurred and is held within the corporate item. There is some move back into the business but very limited and very small not materially impacting their reported margins. With regards to warranty expense, we don't actually break down the analysis and manufacturing cost, but the fact we’re calling out to shows it was a significant item in the quarter. But obviously, and it did have an impact on the overall performance in RI in the comparison in Q1 versus Q2.
Courtney Yakavonis:
China new products?
Andrew Bonfield:
Yeah, sorry. On China new products, obviously GC products are in lower price point, but had similar margins as we said before. So overall this shouldn't impact reported margins as much. Obviously, the most important thing is making sure we retain a good competitive position. This quarter was impacted in part – the reported revenues were impacted part by timing of the Chinese New Year. We did see the benefit of that in Q1, which did have a negative impact in Q2.
Courtney Yakavonis:
Okay. Thank you.
Jennifer Driscoll:
And with that, we'll turn it back to Jim.
Jim Umpleby:
Well, thank you everyone for joining us on the call today. Just a few closing comments. We view our competitive position is very strong. We're continuing to invest to achieve our strategy of a long-term profitable growth including doubling services sales in ME&T by 2026. We had – we expect record profits this year, our second consecutive record from an EPS perspective. And as we talked about we continue to generate strong cash flow, which underpins our commitment to return substantially all free cash to shareholders through our buybacks and dividends. And as Andrew talked about if you take new account 2018 and 2019 by the end of the year, we expect to have a 9% share count reduction by the year -- by the end of the year. With that, I, thank you, for your questions and we look forward to chatting with you next quarter.
Jennifer Driscoll:
Thank you, Jim and thanks everyone who joined us today. We appreciate your interest in Caterpillar. If you have any questions please reach out to me or Rob Rengel in IR and e-mail at [email protected] or [email protected]. And now let me ask Catherine to conclude our call.
Operator:
Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. This does conclude today's conference call. You may disconnect your phone lines at this time and have a wonderful day. Thank you for your participation.
Operator:
Good morning ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Caterpillar 1Q 2018 Analyst Conference Call. At this time, all participants have been placed on the listen-only mode and we will open the floor for your questions and comments after the presentation. It is now my pleasure to turn the floor over to your host, Jennifer Driscoll. Ma’am, the floor is yours.
Jennifer Driscoll:
Thanks, Kate. Good morning everyone, and welcome to the first quarter earnings call for Caterpillar. I’m Jennifer Driscoll from Investor Relations at Caterpillar. I’m pleased to have with me here in the room Jim Umpleby; Chairman of the Board and CEO; Andrew Bonfield, CFO; and Kyle Epley, Vice President of Global Finance Services Division. We have provided slides on company's presentation. You can find the slides along with our earnings release and glossary on the Investors section of the caterpillar.com website under quarterly financial results. Today we plan to make forward-looking statements which are subject to risks and uncertainties as well as assumptions that could cause our actual results to be different than the information discussed. For details on the factors that individually or in aggregate to cause actual results to vary materially from our projections, please refer to our most recent SEC filings and forward-looking statements included in today's earnings release. As indicated earlier, we're not reporting adjusted profit for share in the first quarter as restructuring costs are expected to be lower this year. It's our intention to report adjusted profit per share in the fourth quarter of 2019 to exclude mark to market gain or loss for the re-measurement of pension and any other post-employment benefit plan and any other discrete items. Please keep in mind that today's call is copy righted by the company. Any use of any portion of the call without our written approval is strictly prohibited. Before I turn the call over to Jim, let me remind you that we will be webcasting an Investor Day presentation next week May 2, from 1:00 PM to 3:30 PM Eastern time. We intend to differ until then any questions about capital allocation for long term target. To access the webcast or the transcript, please visit caterpillar.com, click on investors and then events and presentation. And with that, I'll turn the call over to Jim.
Jim Umpleby:
Thank you, Jennifer. We're happy to have you with us at Caterpillar, and good morning to everyone on the call. As Jennifer mentioned we hope to see many of you at our Investor Day next week in Clayton, North Carolina, where we will provide an update on our enterprise strategy, financial targets and capital deployment plans. Turning to the first quarter highlight on Slide 3, I'd like to thank our global team for delivering another strong first quarter. Profit per share was a first quarter record of $3.25 rising 19%. This result included a contribution of $0.31 per share of a discrete tax benefit. Consolidated sales and revenues grew 5%. Resource industries led the way, driven by higher demand for equipment and services and favorable price realization. Growth from Construction Industries was fueled by higher end-user demand for construction equipment and price utilization. Operating profit rose 5%. We benefited from favorable price realization, volume gains and lower short-term incentive compensation expenses, which more than offset higher manufacturing costs, as well as investments in SG&A and R&D for future growth. Strong operating cash flow of $860 million allowed us to repurchase $750 million in company stock in addition to paying the dividend as part of our continued commitment to shareholder returns. These strong first quarter results are a reflection of stronger demand and the benefit of executing our strategy for profitable growth by investing in services, expanding our offerings and improving operational excellence. Growing services is a critical element of our strategy. Services allows us to provide additional customer value in a variety of ways, including reducing downtime and maximizing machine availability. Digital is an enabler of this strategy with connectivity at the foundation. Last year we added about 250,000 new connected assets bringing our total to about 850,000 assets connected worldwide. We look forward to sharing more on how we think about services during our upcoming investor day. Expanding our offerings enables us to grow our business and reflect our commitment to create greater customer value by providing solutions to meet diverse customer needs in different markets around the world. Some of our progress was on display earlier this month at Bauma, a Construction Industries largest trade show of the Munich, Germany, every three years. I was proud to walk the floor of the Caterpillar exhibit and engage with our dedicated employees and valued customers. Among the highlights were the next generation hydraulic excavators with new semi autonomous features, which give operators more information and insight than ever before. We also displayed the world's first high drive Electric Drive dozer, the D6XE. It offers up to 35% better fuel efficiency than its predecessor. We also showcase new hybrid technologies on three Perkins engines as well as five new engines from its range of EU stage five engines designed to meet new emission standards, increase productivity and lower lifecycle costs. To complement these expanded offerings on the stand customers also learned about new services, including aftermarket products, customer service agreements and our new CAT app which allows customers to easily track critical machine operating data from the field. We continue to focus on enhancing operational excellence, including safety. Our safety goal is always zero incidents. We want all of our employees to return home safely every day. One of the metrics we track at number of recordable injuries for 200,000 hours worked. So far this year, we are tracking 9% better than 2018, and we will not miss focus on his priority to prevent injuries and keep our people safe. Executing our strategy is allowing us to improve operating profit and free cash flow, which we define as operating cash flow less capital expenditures. During our Investor Day on May 2, we will discuss our expectations for operating margins and free cash flow. Now turning to the 2019 outlook on Slide 4, we continue to have confidence in the fundamentals of our diverse end markets and expectations for 2019 performance are unchanged. However, we adjusted our range of 1,175 to 1,275 by the amount of the discreet tax benefit we realized in the first quarter. That brings our 2019 outlook to 1206 to 1306 profit per share. We continue to expect modest sales growth and continued cost discipline for full year 2019. Now let's walk through what we're seeing in the external environment. In Construction Industries, we continue to believe that the healthy U.S. economy, along with stable local funding for infrastructure development will be a positive for us, partly offset by weakness in residential construction. We continue to expect demand to remain low in Latin America this year. In the Europe, Africa and Middle East region demand remained steady despite the political and economic uncertainties. In Asia-Pacific infrastructure activity remains strong. Within China, we continue to expect our sales to be flat with last year. For resource industries, we continue to expect most commodity prices to remain at investible level. We are seeing mining companies becoming increasingly willing to invest in CapEx. While that is encouraging, mines remain disciplined in CapEx deployment. We expect demand for heavy construction and quarrying in aggregate equipment to remain strong. In Energy & Transportation, oil prices are recovery, but the volatility in oil prices and take away construction in the Permian are impacting demand for well servicing equipment in the first half of the year. Later in the year, the U.S pipeline constraints are expected to ease, and we anticipate an increase in demand. GAAP compression should remain healthy for demand for power generation equipment continues to be a positive. Finally in transportation, we expect improvements in our way of business including services. With that, I will turn the call over to Andrew for a closer look at our financials.
Andrew Bonfield :
Thank you, Jim, and good morning, everyone. We have reported record first quarter results today as we continue to execute our strategy and use our operating an execution model to drive profitable growth. I will walk through the results starting with Slide 5 before turning to our updated outlook for the full year. Sales and revenues for the quarter totaled $13.5 billion up 5% from last year, driven by both volume gains and price realization with Resource Industries having a strong first quarter, in particular. First quarter profit per share of $3.25 included a $0.31 per share discrete tax benefit, increased 19% from the prior year's first quarter. This is driven by higher sales, partly offset by higher manufacturing costs and higher spending on SG&A and R&D due to increased investments versus the first quarter of last year. Now let's turn to top line on Slide 6. Sales and revenue growth in the quarter was driven by volume gains and price realization, partially offset by currency. Volume gains, primarily reflected strong demand in both Resource Industries and Construction Industries. Resource Industries from demand was due to growth in original equipment and services. For construction industry sales in North America rose double-digits this quarter. Energy & Transportation sales were flat versus the prior year. Currency pressures reflected dollar strengthening, principally primary against euro, the Australian dollar and the Chinese plan. If you move to Slide 7, I will walk through the changes in operating profit. As shown on the chart, price realization and sales volumes drovethe operating profit increase contributing $292 million and $265 million respectively. Financial Products also added $26 million to operating profits for the quarter. Manufacturing costs increased by $375 million due to higher material costs, freight and variable labor. These higher costs, while unfavorable, were improved from the fourth quarter levels, material costs included a direct tariff expense in the first quarter of about $70 million in line with what we expected. Remember tariffs only started in July of last year. So these will have an impact in Q1 and Q2 until we're passed their original implementation date. Also while steel prices have moderated, after procurement contracts have a light effect so these are still rising across. Labor costs are impacted by production bottlenecks as our suppliers continue to ramp up volumes. SG&A and R&D spending increased despite lower levels of short-term incentive compensation expense, primarily due to investments in growth areas including services and expanded offerings, as well as some corporate level items. The competitors are also set against the low-level of spend in Q1 last year. Currency was unfavorable by about $20 million. Restructuring costs were not material for the quarter. Now, let’s look at the performance of each segment in Q1 beginning with Construction Industries on Slide 8. Sales were $5.9 billion, an increase of $196 million or 3%. Construction sales increased in North America by $345 million due to higher demand for new equipment, particularly for road construction activities. Sales declined in Asia-Pacific, EAME and Latin America. Asia Pacific sales were down 4% or $66 million. Currency was the driver as volumes in China was about flat, which is what we expected. In the EAME, sales declined by 6% or $61 million due to smaller increase in dealer inventories and weaker euro partly offset by favorable price realization. Lastly macro economic factors in Latin America contributed to a decline in sales 7% or $25 million off of a very low base. Turning to profit Construction Industries segment profit declined by 3%, the segment profit margin of 18.5% was a decrease of 120 basis points from the first quarter of 2018. The favorable impact of higher price realization is more than offset by higher manufacturing costs. This increase in cost was led by high material labor on freight costs. While these costs increase, the magnitude was less we saw on the fourth quarter and was driven by the same factors are mentioned a moment ago. The backlog for Construction Industries rose as higher production levels supported an increase in orders rates. We continue to have most free line products from managed distribution. Now let's go to Slide 9, look at Resource Industries. Resource Industries sales were $2.7 billion, up 18% from the first quarter of 2018. The $418 million increase in sales of the quarter reflected high equipment demand, favorable price utilization and increased services. We saw solid demand from mining and heavy construction equipment, including quarry and aggregate. Asia-Pacific was particularly strong with sales up $275 million or about 52%. The backlog declined in Resource Industries as our factories continue to ramp up production, which resulted in increased dealer inventories. First quarter orders were higher than in Q4 2018. We continue to expect higher money CapEx in 2019, lean us to expect higher sales in new equipment this year. Segment profit of $576 million, rose 52% versus first quarter of last year. Segment profit margin improved to about 21%, up 470 basis points in 2018. Resource Industries improved performance and margins expansion was primarily due to higher sales volumes. Favorable price realization was partially offset by higher manufacturing costs including increased material and fright costs as well as slightly higher warranty expense. Turning to Slide 10, we will review Energy & Transportation results. Energy & Transportation sales in the first quarter were $5.2 billion comparable to same quarter last year. Favorable price realization and higher sales volumes were more than offset by unfavorable currency sheet. Sales into oil and gas applications decreased by $84 million or 7%, primarily due to the timing internal project delivers in North America. Sales in power generation rose by $67 million or 7%, due to higher demand for large diesel reciprocating engine applications. Industrial sales were similar to last year's first quarter with gained North America more than offset by an increase in the EMEA. Transportation sales decline 2%. We recently marked one-year anniversary of acquisition of two rail service businesses in January 2018. Segment profit for Energy & Transportation was $838, down $36 million or 4%. The segment profit margin contracted by 60 basis points drove about 16%. Energy & Transportation margins reflect to higher manufacturing costs driven by freight costs and warrantee expense. The increase in backlog in ENG was driven by rail related services and turbines, which will partially offset by specific engines due to softness in oil and gas that Jim referred to earlier. Now let's go to Slide 11, and I will walk through our assumptions for the 2019 outlook. Our profit per share outlook range for 2019 is now $12.06 to $13.06. The change from our prior range of $11.75 to $12.75 reflects a discrete tax item mentioned earlier. Our assumptions with the business loss were largely unchanged. We continue to have competence in the fundamental of our diverse end markets and we expect sales to increase modestly this year. We also anticipate the price realization will offset higher manufacturing costs, short-term incentive compensation is expected to be a tailwind of about $500 million. We project restructuring costs of about $100 million to $200 million for the full year. This makes annual tax rate is unchanged at 26% except for the discrete types item we called out. We see capital expenditures in the range of $1.3 billion to $1.5 billion. Our outlook assumes that the macroeconomic geopolitical environment is largely unchanged. Looking ahead to the second quarter, we expect to continue the execution of our strategy, including additional investments for long-term profitable growth was appropriate. We anticipate stronger results in the back half of the year, including better variable margins and stronger demand from oil and gas customers in North America. Depending on markets from based on internal assessment of enterprise in terms of value. We expect to be active in the market and repurchase another $750 million company stock in the second quarter of 2019. Any additional share repurchases will depend upon cash generation and alignment with our capital allocation priorities. We do not expect to make any additional voluntary pension contributions due to the $1 billion description pension contribution we made in the third quarter of last year. So finally let’s turn to Slide 12 and recap today’s results. It was a record first quarter of profit per share following the record first quarter last year. We have updated our guidance to $12.06 to $13.06 in profit per share. Given that strong financial profile we were able to return $1.2 billion to shareholders from the quarter, while executing our strategy and investing for long term profitable growth. With that, I will hand it back to cater operator to begin the question-and-answer portion of the call.
Operator:
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen the floor is now open for questions. [Operator Instructions] Thank you. Our first question today is coming from Jerry Revich at Goldman Sachs. Your line is live.
Jerry Revich:
In resources, I'm wondering if you could update us on your expectations on when large project prospects are expected to turn into orders over the past year we’ve seen CapEx budgets and truck utilization moving the right direction. And I'm wondering what do you expect that to translate to backlog growth for your resource business?
Jim Umpleby:
Yes, Jerry, it’s Jim. I’ll take that one on. So we’re seeing healthy levels of business from our mining customers. As you know we had some issues in terms of ramping up production particularly with our suppliers over the last few months. And our backlog chain really is a reflection of the fact that we’ve been able to ramp up production as oppose to any softening of demand. So again the market is strong. We expect to continue to have good market activity here and we’re ramping up production, which has resulted in a reduction in our backlog.
Jerry Revich:
Okay. And then I'm wondering if you could just expand on your dealer inventory comments. So healthy dealer inventory build in the first quarter you mentioned resource is still at low levels of dealer inventories and you’re looking for food business to be up low single due to organically. This year is the flat dealer inventory comment really an expectation or is that a place holder as we see activity ramp up in other words. It sounds like you either expect to reduce production over the course of the year or retail sales to accelerate if we do indeed see flat dealer inventories year end 19 versus year end 18?
Jim Umpleby:
Yes, so Jerry, obviously, keep in mind that dealers own and control the inventories so our expectations are based on what we expect their order levels to be. Obviously, we did see an increase in inventory levels in the first quarter for the usual seasonal regions. Obviously, we’re making sure that we work closely with our dealers to make sure we align their inventory with current market demands. We believe that is about appropriate. And we believe actually flat at the end of the year is a reasonable assumption to be making at this stage.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question today is coming from Jamie Cook at Credit Suisse. Your line is live.
Jamie Cook:
First question just on the resource margin, very much higher than expectation, I know volume and price helped, but was there any benefit there from sort of restructuring or mix and given the shrink in the first quarter, how do we think about sort of full year margin? And then just a follow up question on the dealer inventory level, can you comment on dealer inventory levels? Your months of dealer inventory level either by region or product? Thank you.
Jim Umpleby:
Hi Jamie, it's Jim. As you know we don’t guide -- we don’t give segment margin guidance, but yes first quarter margins are quite strong. A lot of that was driven by volume leverage. We had good price as well, and also just looking at the timing of investment that we had throughout the year was relatively low in the first quarter.
Andrew Bonfield:
And with regards to dealer inventories, generally, obviously, we try to keep dealer inventories to the sort of three to four month level is sort of target guide range, and we try to do that across everywhere and across all product groups. It would be our biggest guide. Obviously, in some areas as we know and see how we are on them distribution. So obviously some inventory levels are lower and could rise higher over time once we get those products off managed distribution.
Operator:
Our next question today is coming from Rob Wertheimer at Melius Research. Your line is live.
Rob Wertheimer:
If you look at your market share in China construction over the last 10 years, I think you're more or less doubled it if you use a tonnage basis as opposed to units. You do well in the bigger machines and you've done well in growing that category. Could you sort of talk about what's driven that and then what's changed in the last three, four months to cause some ebbing of those changes?
Andrew Bonfield:
Yes, so China, obviously, this year we saw relatively flat first quarter sales in China, which is consistent, obviously, with prior year. Spring season, as you know, is usually a strong selling season in China, and goes stronger than normal across the whole of the sector mainly due to the timing of Chinese New Year, but there's also been some very competitive pricing. And that has had some impact on those market shares. We now expect the industry -- our expectation for the industry for the full year is China to be up. We expect our sales to be flattish for the year. So we will lose some market share in Q1, but we're taking actions to gain it back, working with dealers and also launching new models, which is the key part of the strategy, which we think is the right strategy that enables us to compete.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question today is coming from Ann Duignan at JP Morgan Securities. Your line is live.
Ann Duignan:
I was just wondering if you could give us an update on your 1% to 4% price increase targets across your different segments and regions.
Andrew Bonfield:
Yes. So Ann, as you saw that for the full year or for the full first quarter, we had saw price of about $292 million. That’s about 2% on net revenues, obviously, that was stronger in CI and RI than it was in ENT. That effect is basically partly some impact because of the midyear price increase, which is mostly in Construction Industries last year. And then, obviously, the price increase, which was more broadly brushed across the whole segments on the six segments on 1st January. We expect Q1 and Q2 to have better price realization, but once we get pass the anniversary of the midyear price increase CI in particular, will be less price realized in second half of the year. But so far we're holding good level of the prices increases we put through.
Ann Duignan:
Okay. And then in that context, just one quick follow up on the CI. Were you comparable with your incremental margins even though they weren’t incremental? Or did anything specific happen in Q1's cost Construction Industries margins to be worst that you might have expected and how should we think about those margins going forward? Thank you.
Jim Umpleby:
Yes. So I’ll talk about comparables again just rather than I see because we don’t give a detailed guidance for that individual segment. But if you look at the comparables to CI, we are, I think, we’re seeing some material price increases both steel and tariffs had an impact as we talked about more broadly. They particularly impacted CI. Freight costs just authorized indeed towards the end of the -- in the middle of second quarter last year. So we’re still ramping past those. Obviously, as we get pass those comparable increases, our margins should stabilize and be better for the remainder of the year.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question today is coming from Steven Fisher at UBS Securities. Your line is live.
Steven Fisher:
Just curious how you are thinking about the guidance for the year and the visibility for the second half, in general? Obviously, you hit your Q1 buyback plan still have plenty of cash to do more buybacks. I think you mentioned another similar quarter buybacks in the second quarter. So do you think the guidance is conservative given that you don’t have a lot more buyback in guidance and maybe clarify that next 750 is in guidance? Or is there something about the visibility in the second half of the year, whereby it’s making you cautious you might need the buybacks as an offset?
Jim Umpleby:
Yes, I think, on this point of year in terms of our guidance for our profitability, it’s early in the year so we're maintaining our range. In terms of buybacks, one of the things we’re going to discuss a bit next week at our Investor Day is our financial capital deployment. So we look forward to see you there having that conversation.
Steven Fisher:
Okay. But just to clarify, is the $750 million for Q2, I think, you said is that now baked into guidance?
Jim Umpleby:
Yes, that guidance assumes that we have a consistent level of buyback activity quarter-on-quarter.
Steven Fisher:
And then just a follow up on the North American construction business, you said a higher demand on road building. Can you just talk about what you’re seeing outside of road construction and what do you think about the mix later in the year?
Jim Umpleby:
Well, again, we talked about the fact that we have strong infrastructures, and local and state infrastructure investment is helping drive sales of residential was a bit soft. We don’t see -- we don’t expect a major mix change for the remainder of the year.
Steven Fisher:
Anything on the commercial side?
Jim Umpleby:
There is nothing to add.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question today is coming from David Raso at Evercore ISI Institutional Equity. Sir your line is live.
David Raso:
If I look at your implied sales guidance for the rest of the year, and I utilize your historical sequential changes in your backlog, it would imply that year-over-year backlog does stay down year-over-year for most of the year and maybe back to flat in the fourth quarter. But that also does imply your orders term positive year-over-year in the third quarter and for the full second half. Is that what you’re hearing from your customers and dealers that we should be seeing the orders growing year-over-year in the second half of the 2019?
Andrew Bonfield:
Yes, David, I mean there are couple of things, one which is, obviously, mining CapEx is one area where, obviously, we're expecting the order rate to continue to accelerate the year, particularly given we are to expect an increase from mining CapEx for the full year. And as replacement cycle starts to move ahead, obviously, that will help us on from a backlog perspective. In ENC, as we've indicated, well, we do expect to see some order improvement in second half of the year is around oil and gas, reciprocating engines, in particularly as the Permian Takeaway issues are started to moderate. So those are probably the two big factors, which we would say would drive orders from second half of the year.
David Raso:
And that sort there will be an aggregate drive in the total company orders albeit year-over-year, I guess, a key question that what you're seeing and obviously thinking about in your guidance. Is that what the numbers imply?
Jim Umpleby:
Yes, that is what we're thinking and our guidance implies.
David Raso:
And in that same regard, if orders were up in the second half of the year, price cost, the way you're guiding here that would imply the first quarter was the worst of the price cost for the full year. Can we extrapolate that into your thoughts on margins year-over-year in aggregate for second half?
Jim Umpleby:
Sorry, David, can I just clarify price/cost? You mean price realization?
David Raso:
Price, as in the waterfall chart, yes, price versus the manufacturing costs in this quarter was fair down 83 million negative, which actually worse than we saw at any quarter last year. I’m just making sure that where you laying it out, does that then set of the margins year-over-year go back to growing.
Jim Umpleby:
Yes, well basically as we've also said and guidance assumes this price offset material cost increases or manufacturing cost increases for the full year. So yes, that would imply an improvement from that part of the factor of the remainder of the year?
David Raso:
My last quick one. This might be my second question I apologize. But when you think about cash flow and use of it, that's fine, but even on the balance sheet, the amount of cash you are caring, you can define it as you wish, cash to total debt, cash to shareholder equity, cash to total assets, everyone, the cash on the equipment company seems very high. So when I hear share report number 750, which isn’t even pushing the cash flow usage. Can you help us understand specially as a new CFO to the company, Andrew, what do you think the appropriate cash level should be for the equipment company?
Andrew Bonfield:
I assume we will talk about that in May 2 Day.
David Raso:
Yes. I appreciate that. Thank you.
Jennifer Driscoll:
And as a reminder could we have please one question per caller. Thanks
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question today is coming from Ross Gilardi at Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Your line is live.
Ross Gilardi:
Jim, I’m just wondering across your overall portfolio what are you hearing from your biggest customers with respect to trade war into the field, in general, like there's pent-up demand for capital spending projects around the world in the next year if this whole thing is resolved?
Jim Umpleby:
Yes, I think, most of our large customers are as we are cautiously optimistic that we will work our way through this trade issues. Certainly, anytime there are trade tensions of this kind. It does put a certain amount of conservatism, I think, into all of our plans for capital spending. So I would expect this in fact the trade tension get resolved, that would be a positive for global economic growth and positive for us.
Ross Gilardi:
And just on the order trends, I mean, you had originally obviously guided in January and some of the macro data feels a little bit better more recently. Did you see any type of reacceleration in order trends? Would you say as the quarter unfolded and as commodity prices recovered or you could say kind of more March, April today versus January and February?
Jim Umpleby:
Yes, certainly. As you know we’re a very diverse business so just talk about some of the areas. In oil and gas reset, much has been written about the fact that there’s constraints in the Permian and that did have a bit of a negative impact on order rates for our reciprocated engines sold into oil and gas. As you mentioned earlier, mine activity both in the aftermarket and for new equipment, that quotation activity is quite strong, obviously, again, miners are being cautious based on what the cycle of the past. But generally we feel good about our business, and we feel good about the quotation activity in the segment we’re getting from our customers.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question today is coming from Noah Kay at Oppenheimer & Company. Your line is live.
Noah Kay:
Just on your comments on CapEx budgets, I think the company previously guided for CapEx to be about flat year-over-year. The guidance you provided in the slide to just immediate increases of about 10% at the midpoint? Is there anything in particular which you think about driving that or you having to ramp up your production infrastructure and maybe together segment?
Jim Umpleby:
No. I can’t -- generally, I would say CapEx is still below book depreciation reminds me that that is a positive from a cash flow perspective. And we are expecting it to be flattish, I think, last year it was about 1.3, so the bottom end of that range. There’s no significant big build up of incremental production and required.
Andrew Bonfield:
Kate, are you there?
Unidentified Company Representative :
Jim had a question for you.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question today is coming from Andrew Casey at Well Fargo Securities. Your line is live.
Andrew Casey:
I'm trying to understand the comments about manufacturing costs gone down a little bit in Q1 versus Q4, and then the back half improvement. And juxtaposing against last year it is seasonally a typical period where margins decline in Q2 from Q1. You might have answered it, but I'm still little unclear. Should we expect Q2 manufacturing margin to be higher than Q1 and then further improvement in the second half?
Jim Umpleby:
No. What it will be is, compared to the comps for the last year, if you look Q1, obviously, this year margin was lower as a result of the seal tariff and freight costs. We expect those to moderate as we go through, not there’ll be similar impact on Q2 because, obviously, those increases won't be fully in effect for most of the Q2 last year, and then obviously will moderate in the second half of the year.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question today is coming from Joe O’Dea at Vertical Research Partners. Your line is live.
Joe O’Dea:
A related question on manufacturing costs, and just I think you've talked to the tariffs related costs. If you could break that 375 down at all anymore, it doesn't sound like there are any mitigating actions in process to take that down. It's more about a wait and see and then comps get easier. But I just wanted to understand if there some opportunities for you to address those whether that's rerouting supplies whether that's any other kind opportunities you have. But just given if that was a pretty substantial headwind in the quarter, what kind of medication we could see?
Andrew Bonfield:
Yes. So there are two areas where we do expect some mitigation, probably later this year, one which is around steel prices, just purely because we lag behind because of the effect of, as I said, our procurement practices. And as you look, currently, obviously, with the Vale issues or product prices all looking at slightly higher, but there should be some benefit of slightly lower steel price coming through later this year. And that’s one of the areas where we are going to obviously be looking for some potential cost savings. The other area, which is also issues around variable liable burden, which basically is really around the fact that obviously as we building our production, we're having some bottlenecks. So as a result of supplier issues, and we expect those to mitigate during the rest of the year as well. So we do expect some of these not just we mitigated by the comp period, but also by actual actions we are taking.
Joe O’Dea:
And then also on lag effects and related to the pricing, I mean, when we think about midyear 18, we implemented some price increases and then again on Jan 1, presumably 1Q doesn’t fully reflect at least what happened on Jan 1, because of some things that might've already been in backlog. But could you just talk about the degree to which there is still some lag effective seeing those price actions that were implemented?
Andrew Bonfield:
Yes, we do expect the second half of price realization to be lower than the first half because of the midyear price increase last year. That was the -- that is one of the biggest factors in the -- in above the 2% rise is obviously that's fully baked in enterprising now. So we would expect second half to be lower. And as I said we had guided to have basically price offset manufacturing cost increases.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question today is coming from Seth Weber at RBC Capital Markets. Your line is live.
Seth Weber :
I guess first just a clarification on Jim, your comment that the orders were up in the first quarters versus the fourth quarter. Is that -- does that include traditional mining equipment? Or is that more skewed towards quarrying or big construction?
Jim Umpleby:
Yes, I think what I said was our order activity remains strong in our eyes. So hopefully, I gave a quarter-to-quarter comparison. But again, quotation activity is strong. And the general quotation activity and order activity is healthy.
Andrew Bonfield:
Yes, I think from an overall prospective actually it was my comment, I think, I did say actually order rate in Q4 was higher -- Q1 was higher than Q4 2018. So we did see that increase -- some increase coming through. That was in mining, and there was some -- it was still strong though in Korean ag at the moment.
Seth Weber:
And then my question is really just on RI again, it sounds like a lot of the sales today are really on the OE side. I mean would you expect the mix to tilt more towards parts and service as you get as equipment usage starts picking up more. So I guess I'm just wondering could mix become more favorable later in the year or even next year? Thanks.
Jim Umpleby:
We didn't mean to give the impression that it's skewed towards O&E at this point, so both are quite healthy at the moment.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question today is coming from Stephen Volkmann at Jeffries & Company. Your line is live.
Stephen Volkmann:
Most of its been answered, but I think there was some commentary about SG&A spending being a little bit elevated due to some growth initiatives. And I'm curious if there’s any detail you can give around that. And then does that sort of fade also in the second half as well?
Jim Umpleby:
We continue to make investments -- targeted investments for long term profitable growth in the area of services and in expanded offerings. In services, we continue to connect more assets. We’re more investing in our digital platform. We’re investing in our analytics. And we continue to develop expanded product offerings as well to ensure that we have the right product offerings and right price point for different markets around the world. So again, we’re in this for the long haul, obviously, and we’re making those targeted investments to grow services and expanded offerings.
Andrew Bonfield:
And the run rate was slightly higher than you would normally -- remember, you got the short-term incentive compensation credit coming through this year and SG&A. So some of that was also there was some corporate one-time items relating to some compensation items in retail at the corporate level. And there were also, obviously, as Jim said, there’s investments that we’ve made in the business itself which helped very well. We also had very low comps last year for SG&A and R&D in the first quarter of last year. We had a very low slow ramp up of spend.
Stephen Volkmann:
And looking forward is it sort of steady or is this burn half loaded?
Andrew Bonfield:
I mean the first quarter is one of the highest levels of SG&A spend from an increase perspective through the reminder of the year.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question today is coming from Adam Colman at Cleaveland Research Company. Your line is live.
Adam Colman:
I was wondering if you could talk about the order trends that you’re seeing across the power churn business that was the one area of sales growth within E&T this quarter, but the retail sales have slowed here almost to flat. So I was wondering if you could talk about what you’re seeing by geography and product line and the order book for that chunk of the business?
Jim Umpleby:
We had seen a recovery in Powergen over the last few months in that and we expect that to continue. It is an area of strength for us. Obviously, that business is a cocoon and we had a bit of a downturn previously that we’re now recovering from. But can we expect that business to continue to be healthy.
Adam Colman:
And then related to that, in E&T, you had mentioned earlier that you expect your order trends across oil and gas for resent entrants improve in the second half. Have you seen any of that improvement yet so far or that’s still on the comment?
Jim Umpleby:
Again gas compression is remained strong and steady. We haven’t seen a pickup in order rates for well servicing and the reset portion of oil and gas yet. But again, we expect that to come. Another part of our oil and gas business is, of course, Solar Turbines, and that business has remained steady. We’re seeing a pickup there in international orders, which are typically tied more to the big CapEx projects, and there will be oil prices. So that business is starting pick up.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question today is from Larry De Maria at William Blaire. Your line is live.
Larry De Maria:
First question, can you just provide the full year incentive comp benefit? And then secondly just a broader question, I have is around, CI dealer manage distribution. I'm just curious how much is being restrained? And when should we think about that getting maybe more in balance perhaps after the spring selling season when things come down. But how restrained is that? And when do that get more imbalanced? How do we think about that? Thank you.
Jim Umpleby:
So the first question on incentive comp, we expect about $500 million benefit there this year compared to last year. And in terms of manage distribution for CI, again, it's obviously dynamic situation based on how we ramp up supply and what's happen into the market place. I don’t anticipate a major change here over the next few months in that situation.
Larry De Maria:
Okay. Based on the CI orders, probably shouldn’t get more out of whack than already is now. We may get more towards, more equilibrium situation, maybe later in this year. Is that fair?
Jim Umpleby:
Yes. We expected to be broadly flattish for the reminder of the year, yes.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question today is coming from Chad Dillard at Deutsche Bank Securities. Your line is live.
Chad Dillard :
So I want to dig into the price realization seen in Resource Industries in the past quarter. Just want to understand how broad-based it was? And to the extend, it was driven by mix. And how should I think about that and how sustainable those on a go forward basis?
Jim Umpleby:
Yes. I mean, price utilization, again, was very strong in RI in Q1, and we do expect it to be the highest quarter for the year. So yes, I mean, it was little bit. There is a little bit of an element mix in that number wish to come through. So yes.
Andrew Bonfield:
Right, because it’s a project based business and quite lumpy. You will see certain metrics jump around quarter-to-quarter. It's just the nature of the beast for show off for rail and for RI.
Chad Dillard:
Got it. And then just a question on Cat Financial. It seems like there is a little bit of uptick on credit loss allowances. Just hoping to get a little bit additional color on that that’s driving either from regional perspective or end markets?
Jim Umpleby:
So, I mean, in Cat Financial, the actual past views actually were up from 3.55% in Q4 to 3.61% in Q1. So very small increase, obviously, a bigger increase year-over-year that mostly reflects the Cat Financial portfolio, which we talked about in Q4, which obviously has had an impact on the quality of the overall past views. You also, probably are seeing that we had a mark to market gain in Cat Financial this quarter. Remember in the last quarter we had a loss -- mark to market loss on that and this effectively is just an offset quarter-on-quarter.
Operator:
Our next question today is coming from Courtney Yakavonis at Morgan Stanley. Your line is live.
Courtney Yakavonis:
Andrew, I think you outlined a little bit about how we should be affecting medication in steel prices and from the variable labor in the back half of the year in addition to lapping over there the entire costs from last year. Can you just comment a little bit on freight costs and whether we’ve obviously seen stock rates drop, but whether we should see that mitigate in the back half as well? And maybe just talk a little bit about how your freight costs are contracting out?
Andrew Bonfield:
Yes, so obviously there were two factors driving freight costs, one which is actually cost itself, which did rise, probably mostly from the second quarter last year. So again, we should get past that on a comparable basis sometimes in second half of the year. The other factor which was a big issue for us last year and it becoming less of an issue is around backlog of orders. So as we have past few orders that we need to fill, we have had some freight inefficiencies, and again we’re working to make sure we mitigate those as best as we can going forward.
Courtney Yakavonis:
And then just quickly, one other clarification, I think you had mentioned in oil and gas some of the weakness is due to some timing of turbine product deliveries just want to understand how that should impact the back half of this year, especially given that you’re expecting gas compression or still kind of up this quarter. So just trying to understand and expect that acceleration in the back half to come and take away shoes just all the moves and takes in the oil and gas segment.
Jim Umpleby:
Yes. I would look at those separately. I try to separate it your mind reset versus turbines, so again turbine business is very lumpy so that you can revenue rack one large project in a quarter and it has a very big impact and you don't have that large project and also there is a decline. So again, our Solar Turbines business is solid and we expect a good year. On the research, and as I mentioned earlier, we have seen again oil and gas compression strong we saw a bit of the slowdown in the order intake in well servicing, and we expect that to recover later in the year.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question today is coming from Neil Frohnapple at Buckingham Research. Your line is live.
Neil Frohnapple:
Within CI, can you talk about what you’re seeing from a used-equipment price standpoint? Are you seeing weakness creeping at all for any of the major equipment categories like to be concern as you look out?
Jim Umpleby:
I mean, Neil, that we found the well. There was one auction done in Orlando where there was weakness in prices from, but generally, aside from that is actually been flattish. So used-price equipment seems to be holding up reasonably well above from that one particular.
Jennifer Driscoll:
Thanks. And Kate, I believe we have time for one more question.
Operator:
Thank you. Our final question today is coming from Mig Dobre at Robert W. Baird. Your line is live.
Mig Dobre:
So going back to resources, I don’t want to put what the amount here, but to me it sounds like you’re more positive this quarter than you had been, say in the fourth quarter at the back half of 2018 in terms of your commentary and kind of how you’re talking about demand going forward. I want to make sure that I get that message properly here and maybe have you expand this to kind of what’s driving this incremental positivity? And related to that as replacement demand is starting to come through from some of your customers eventually, do you feel that the industry has the right amount of capacity available to serve there?
Jim Umpleby:
Yes. So again, I mean, we feel good about just to say the business, our quotation activity is good, the aftermarket activity is good. We have certain terms of thinking about parked equipment and that has certainly come down. And so I won't be so presumptuous as to make thinking about how our customers are positioned, but we believe based on all our conversations, we expect this recovery to continue. And obviously, there is timing issues and let's make a judgment call is to what you think will happen this year, what you think will happen next year, but generally we feel positive about RI business and the activity that we're seeing.
Mig Dobre:
And from a capacity standpoint?
Jim Umpleby:
It's very -- its situational right. So it's geographic and it's also depends on the kind of commodity that is being mined. In certain areas there still a bit of excess capacity, in other areas there is not. And so really it's a mix bag, we can't really give one answer to that question.
Andrew Bonfield:
We're still significantly below levels, which we saw in the previous peak. So we believe we've sufficient capacity to meet most of demand.
Mig Dobre:
Right. It is just that has been a lot of restructuring that’s been done in the downturn as well, which is why I was asking. And then one last question on E&T pricing, obviously, little weaker versus the rest of the company, and I'm wondering is there any perspective you can provide on various businesses in that segment where there might be some pricing deviation from the average reported either positive or negative? Thanks.
Jim Umpleby:
I mean, I think, generally, obviously the pricing actions that occurred in E&T probably as a higher mix of services as well. Some model of that would spread through the price increase. So that would be a significant factor. There's obviously machines, particularly in parts, in particular for CI and RI were more broadly base.
Jennifer Driscoll:
Jim, turn it back to you for some closing comments.
Jim Umpleby:
Sure. Well thanks everyone for joining us today. We appreciate your questions. We're pleased with our team's performance, including another record first quarter for profit per share. We are executing our strategy of profitable growth that we lay out in our Investor Day May 17 by investing in services, expanding in our offerings and improving operational excellence. We do look forward to see many of you at our Investor Day next week. And again we will give you an update there about where we are in the strategy. We will talk a bit about financial targets and also our priorities for capital deployment. With that, I will turn back to Jennifer.
Jennifer Driscoll:
Thank you, Jim, and Andrew, and thanks everyone for joining us today. We appreciate your interest in the company. If you have questions, you can reach me at [email protected]. If you like a transcript of today's earnings call you will find it posted later today on the investor relations section of our website at caterpillar.com. Next week, on May 2, we will be hosting an investor day as we mentioned. It will be webcast and we will post the transcript of that event after the event on same website. And with that, let met turn the call back to Kate, our operator, to conclude our call.
Operator:
Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. This does conclude today's conference call. You may disconnect your phone lines at this time and have a wonderful day. Thank you for your participation.
Company Representatives:
Jim Umpleby - Chairman, Chief Executive Officer Andrew Bonfield - Chief Financial Officer Joe Creed - Vice President of Finance Services Amy Campbell - Director, Investor Relations
Operator:
Good morning ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Caterpillar 4Q 2018 Analyst Conference Call. At this time, all participants have been placed on a listen-only mode and we will open the floor for your questions and comments after the presentation. It is now my pleasure to turn the floor over to your host, Amy Campbell. Ma’am, the floor is yours.
Amy Campbell:
Thank you, Kate. Good morning, and welcome everyone to our fourth quarter earnings call. On the call today I’m pleased to have our Chairman and CEO, Jim Umpleby; our CFO, Andrew Bonfield, and Vice President of Finance Services, Joe Creed. Remember, this call is copyrighted by Caterpillar, and any use of any portion of the call without the expressed written consent of Caterpillar is strictly prohibited. If you’d like a copy of today’s call transcript, we will be posting it in the Investors section of our Caterpillar.com website. This morning we will be discussing forward-looking information that involves risks, uncertainties, and assumptions that could cause our actual results to be different than the information discussed. Details on the factors that either individually or in the aggregate could make actual results differ materially from our projections can be found in our filings with the SEC and in our forward-looking statements included in today's financial release. In addition, a reconciliation of non-GAAP measures can be found in the appendix of this morning's presentation and in our release which is posted at Caterpillar.com/earnings. And with that, I'll turn the floor over to Jim.
Jim Umpleby:
Thank you, Amy, and good morning. I'd like to begin today by thanking our global team for delivering an outstanding year in 2018. It was the best profit per share performance in our company's history, which allowed us to return $5.8 billion of capital to shareholders. In 2018 we remained focused on making our customers more successful and executing our enterprise strategy, which centers around achieving long term profitable growth through operational excellence and investing in services and expanded offerings. Revenue for the year was up 20% to $54.7 billion as favorable economic conditions drove growth across many of our end markets. We delivered record adjusted profit per share of $11.22 and strong operating cash flow of $6.3 billion, which allowed us to repurchase $3.8 billion of company stock, raise the dividend by 10% and make a discretionary pension contribution of $1 billion. 2018 marks the 25th consecutive year we paid higher dividends to our shareholders, earnings us recognition as a member of the elite Aristocrat’s Dividend Fund. Our fourth quarter adjusted operating margin was 13.8%. This was lower than our expectations and was impacted primarily by right-offs at Cat Financial and higher than expected material and freight costs. However our full year 2018 adjusted operating margin was 15.9%, 340 basis points higher than 2017 and solidly in line with our Investor Day target range. We are continuing to execute our enterprise strategy with the operating and execution model guiding our investments to those areas with the best opportunity for future profitable growth. I’ve talked frequently about two components of the strategy, expanded offerings and services. Let me walk you through a few successes from last year in both of those areas. On our October call I talked about our expanded offerings as next generation Articulated Trucks and Mini Excavators. We’ve continued to roll out next-gen machines, including the 120Motor Grader that offers up to 15% greater fuel efficiency and saves customers up to 15% in maintenance cost with new Filtration Technology. In December we announced the next generation 36-ton Class Excavators. These machines increase operating efficiency, lower fuel and maintenance costs and improve operator comfort. We also launched our next generation D6 dozer offering customers the world's first high drive electric drive Dozer with 35% better fuel efficiency and increased agility compared to the previous electric drive models. We are expanding our engine offerings as well, including the CG Series of Generator Sets, increasing power output, offering high reliability and improving return on investment for our customers as they operate on natural gas and bio-gas, making them more economical. Thanks to the combination of Caterpillar Technology and the customer's initiative, the world's first Cruise Ship power by liquefied natural gas set sale in 2018. This is another great example of an expanded offering. We offered our customer an integrated solution utilizing our MaK Dual Fuel engines to fully operate this cruise ship using LNG. Now a few examples of services, including technology solutions that support our dealers and customers at the initial point of sale and in the aftermarket. As of November Cat Mining Trucks used in our MineStar command for hauling Autonomous Technology reached a milestone of moving 1 billion tons of material. We deployed our first six commercial autonomous trucks in 2013 and the fleet now has grown to more than 150. Six different mining companies are operating command for hauling on sites in Australia, in North and South America. We are working with customers who operate mixed fleets and have successfully deployed our Autonomous Technology to rectorfix competitive haul trucks. We are leveraging our success with autonomy and are collaborating with a customer to pilot remote control operative stations for landfill operations, which could transform even revolutionize many aspects of the landfill industry. We've also introduced an equipment management app that allows our customers to monitor fleet data, request parts and service, and connect with their dealer via mobile devices. These are a few of the many examples of our global team helping our customers be more successful working with Caterpillar than with any of our competitors. Now for the outlook
Andrew Bonfield:
Thank you, Jim and good morning everyone. This year's record profits and strong cash flows are a clear reflection of the hard work and cost discipline that stems from the company's focus on delivering a strategy using the operating and execution model. Today I’m going to walk through at a high level both the quarter and full year 2019 results and then I will discuss our outlook and highlight some of the key financial assumptions for 2019. So please turn to slide 5, to look at the results for Q4. Sales and revenues were $14.3 billion, up 11% from last year, with continued growth across all regions and in all three primary segments. Increased demand for resource industries machines, higher sales in North America for construction equipment and higher demand for reciprocating engines to support well servicing and gas compression applications in North America were all significant drivers of this increase. Fourth quarter profit per share of $1.78 and adjusted profit per share of $2.55 were both up from the year ago. You will recall that in 2017 profit per share was impacted by U.S. tax reform. The 18% increase to adjusted profit per share year-over-year was largely driven by the higher sales volume along with continued cost discipline. If you move to slide six, I will walk through the 36% increase in operating profit. As you can see from the chart, the operating profit contribution of the higher sales volume was most of the $496 million operating profit increase in the quarter. Price realization was $179 million or about 1% higher than the fourth quarter of last year. Positive price realization was offset by higher manufacturing costs, largely due to high material and fright costs, as steel prices, tariffs and supply chain inefficiencies continue to impact our results. Financial products had a $73 million negative impact on operating profits for the quarter. I will walk through this in more detail when I cover that segment. Lastly, restructuring costs were favorable by $144 million as restructuring actions continue to ram down and are expected to return to normalized levels next year, which is why we will no longer exclude them from the adjusted profit per share calculation. In short, whilst there are several puts and takes, price continues to largely offset CAT cost headwinds, dealer costs remain about flat and higher sales volume will remain as the primary driver of the improvement in operating profit. However, we did see a decline in operating margins in the quarter versus year-to-date run rates. Also a decline in the operating margin is typical in the fourth quarter. This year it was greater than we expected and resulted from unplanned allowance increases and write-downs in financial products, higher manufacturing costs including higher material and freight costs, as well as inventory changes. The negative impact from inventory occurred as inventory increase throughout the year and came slightly down in the fourth quarter, resulting in unfavorable operating leverage. Now let's look at the performance of each segment in Q4, beginning in the construction industries on slide 7. Sales were $5.7 billion, an increase of $410 million or 8%. Construction sales increased in North America and EAME, but were down slightly in Asia-Pac and Latin America. The sales increase in North America was $403 million, driving nearly all of the construction industry sales growth for the quarter. We believe the North American economy remains robust with much of the increase driven by oil and gas related projects, including pipelines and other non-residential construction activities. In addition to higher end user demand, dealer inventories also increased in North America. This increase follows several quarters of tight dealer inventory levels and we now believe it now better aligned to meet current demand. In EAME sales in the region were up 9% as strong end user demand in Europe for infrastructure, road and nonresidential construction was partially offset by continued weakness in the Middle East. Asia Pacific sales were down 4% or $64 million. The sales decline was driven by lower demand in China, partially offset by higher sales in other Asian countries. While sales were down in China in the quarter, this was in part due to an unusual seasonal pattern in Q4, 2017, with a more – return to a more normal pattern in 2018. I will remind you how strong the last two years have been with industry sales for 10 ton and above excavators up about 40% in 2018 after doubling in 2017. Lastly, several Latin American countries continue to experience economic challenges. Sales were down $18 million or about 5% for the region. Turning to profit, CI’s segment profit was about flat versus a year ago with an operating margin of 14.8% down 100 basis points. The favorable impacts of high price realization and improved sales volume were about offset by higher material, labor and freight costs, as well as adverse variable manufacturing costs. The sequential decline in operating margins from the third quarter run rate was largely driven by higher material costs and higher variable manufacturing costs. Construction Industries backlog was up for the quarter and from a year ago as higher production levels supported an increase in order rates. Most CI equipment remains on managed distribution. Now let’s go to slide eight and look at Resource Industries. RI sales were $2.8 billion, up 21% from the fourth quarter 2017. Higher sales in the quarter were driven by robust demand from heavy construction and quarry and aggregate customers, as well as higher shipments, machines to mining customers as mining companies increase capital expenditures. Demand for aftermarket parts to overhaul maintain equipment remained robust in the quarter. The decline in resource industries backlog was the result of several factors, including the lumpiness of mining orders and an increase in dealer inventory. Based on activities we are seeing in the market, we expect the slowdown in orders to be temporary and are expecting high mining CapEx in 2019 to drive high new equipment sales for the segment. Segment profit of $400 million was up an impressive 90% versus the fourth quarter of last year. Segment operating margin improved to 14.3% up 520 basis from 2017. RIs improved performance and margin expansion was primarily due to higher sales. The operating leverage came through several years of significant restructuring actions and the teams continued cost discipline. These gains were partially offset by higher material and freight costs in the quarter. Now let’s turn to slide nine where we will discuss energy and transportation. E&T sales in the fourth quarter were $6.3 billion a 11% higher than the same quarter last year. Sales into oil and gas applications were up by $222 million or 15%, a strength in onshore activity in North America for reciprocating gas compression and well servicing applications continued. Sales for turbines and turbine-related services were about flat. Power generation sales increased by $211 million or 20%, driven primarily by sales of reciprocating engines to support data center and other large power generation projects. Industrial application sales were about flat with higher sales in North American and Asia Pacific, about offset by lower sales in Latin America and the EAME. Transportation sales were up by 10%, driven primarily by acquisitions of two rail services businesses into January 2018. Segment profit for energy and transportation was $1.08 billion, up $205 million or 23% from the fourth quarter of last year. The signal margin improved by 170 basis points to 17.2%. E&Ts profit improvement was mostly due to the higher sales volume, partially offset by higher manufacturing costs including freight. E&Ts backlog was down from the third quarter, but up when compared to the fourth quarter of 2017. The growth in the backlog year-over-year is primarily attributed to higher turbine and reciprocating engine demand. About half the backlog decline in the quarter was related to large shipments for both recip engines and turbines. Another half resulted from the slowdown of orders to support oil and gas applications in light of recent oil price volatility. Please move to slide 10 and I’ll walk through what caused the decline in financial products profitability in the quarter. Financial products fourth quarter profit was $29 million down $204 million form Q4 of 2017. More than 85% of the unfavorable change was due to the impacts from equity securities and the insurance services investment portfolio, and continued weakness with a small number of accounts and the CAT Power Finance portfolio. Unfavorable impact from insurance services was more than half of the change and was due to a $44 million mark-to-market loss in the fourth quarter of 2018, combined with the absence of a $68 million investment gain from the fourth quarter of 2017. Excluding these non-core impacts that are not indicative of the profit from ongoing business, insurance services would have been possible with operating margin performance consistent with historical averages. The unfavorable change from the CAT Power Finance portfolio was due to an increase in the provision for credit losses, primarily from a $72 million unfavorable impact due to an increase in the allowance rate, and an increase in write-offs of $13 million. Cat Financials core asset portfolio continues to perform well. Excluding Cat Power Finance, Cat Financials key credit quality metrics are in line with historical averages for past dues, write-offs and the allowance rate. A strategic assessment of Cat Power Finance was conducted in early 2018, which resulted in changes to the risk management of the portfolio. This includes working down the balance of old loans to reduce exposure and that worker is substantially progressed. We have also significantly reduced our risk exposure going forward and have timed our lending criteria to reduce risks. Now let’s quickly recap the year on slide 11. As we look back, 2018 was a year of solid strategy execution, production increases across most of our product lines, disciplined cost control, investments and profitable growth initiatives and record profit per share. For the year, sales and revenue of $54.7 billion were up 20% from 2017. Profit per share for the full year was $10.26 versus $1.26 in 2017. Adjusted profit per share was $11.22 up 63% from 2017s adjusted profit per share of $6.88. Please turn to slide 12 and I’ll walk you through the operating profit for the full year 2018. Operating profit was $8.3 billion, up 86% from $4.5 billion. The most significant driver to operating margins was high sales volume, with sales in revenues up about$ 9.2 billion or 20%, representing sales growth across all three primary segments and in all geographic regions. It was another good year for price realization up $601 million or 1.2%. For the company price realization more than offset manufacturing cost increases, which were primarily a result of higher material and freight costs. Total SG&A and R&D expenses where higher by $249 million, largely driven by increased investments and initiatives to support profitable growth in services and expanded offerings. Financial products were unfavorable by $141 million, largely due to the absence of gains from the sale of securities, unfavorable impacts from the move to mark-to-market accounting for equity securities and weakness in the Cat Power Finance and Latin American portfolios. Restructuring costs were favorable by $833 million, largely due to the absence of expenses related to a European facility closure in 2017. On slide 13 you can see the significant improvements in adjusted operating margins across the enterprise and the all three primary segments. These improvements were largely driven by higher sales volumes and continued cost discipline, which enabled us to meet or exceed the ranges we committed to at our 2017 Invested Day. Adjusted operating margin for the enterprise was 15.9%, 340 basis points higher than 2017 with significant improvement in each segment. Now let’s move on to slide 14 to discuss cash flow. We ended the year with a strong balance sheet and $7.9 billion of enterprise cash. ME&T operating cash flow was $2.5 billion in the quarter and $6.3 billion for the full year and during the year the Board raised the dividend per share by 10%. In addition, given our financial position and strong cash flows, we bought back $1.8 billion of company stock in the fourth quarter bring our full year stock buyback to $3.8 billion. Lastly we were also able to make a $1 billion discretionary pension contribution in the third quarter. In summary, we returned $5.8 billion of capital to shareholders and ended the year with an entry price cash balance down just slightly from a year ago. It is this strong cash generation which is a result of the discipline created by the O&E model that is one of the most impressive outcomes of 2018. I will update you more on our refreshed capital allocation framework during the 2019 investor day we expect hold in Clayton, North Carolina on May 2. Now let’s move to slide 15 and I’ll walk through our assumptions for the 2018 outlook. Our profit per share outlook range for 2019 is $11.75 to $12.75. This range reflects profit per share up between 5% and 14% over the 2018 adjusted profit per share. Across the outlook range we would expect sales to increase versus 2018. Jim has already taken you through each segment and segments end market assumptions which are summarized on slide four. So I will highlight just a few key financial assumptions. Short term incentive compensation will be reset to about $800 million. We expect favorable price realization to be mostly offset by cost headwinds. Restructuring costs are included in the profit per share outlook as they are expected to return to a normalized levels in 2019. Financial products profit should revert to historical norms. The outlook assumes that lower share account, driven largely by 2018 stock buybacks, as well as anticipated additional repurchases for 2019. We expect to repurchase around $750 million company’s stock in the first quarter of 2019 with the potential for additional share repurchases based on quarterly cash generation and alignment with our capital allocation priorities. We expect a higher tax rate of 26% up 2% from 2018. The increase in the tax rate is largely driven by the application of U.S. Tax Reform provisions to the earnings of certain non-U.S. subsidiaries which don't have a calendar fiscal year end. These provisions did not apply to these subsidies in 2018. And for your cash flow modeling, we expect ME&T capital expenditures along with CAT inventory to remain about flat. Finally let’s turn to slide 16 and recap today’s report. 2018 was a great year with record profit per share. Given our solid balance sheet and strong cash flows, we returned $5.8 billion to shareholders, while increasing our investments to drive profitable growth in services and expanded offering. Looking ahead to 2019 we are going to continue the execution about possible go strategy and we are driving to further growth in profit per share. With that, I'll hand it back to Amy to begin the Q&A portion of the call.
Amy Campbell :
Thanks Andrew. Now we will turn it back to Kate to begin the Q&A portion of the call. Please limit your questions to one plus a follow-up.
Operator:
Thank you. [Operator Instructions]. Our first question today is coming from Stephen Volkmann. Please announce your affiliation, then pose your question.
Stephen Volkmann:
Hi, good morning, it's Jefferies.
Jim Umpleby:
Good morning Steve.
Stephen Volkmann:
I am hoping we can drill down a little bit more on construction industry as that seems to be sort of the biggest point of discussion this morning. Obviously the margin there was somewhat lower than I think most of us were looking for and pretty minimal incremental margin. So it seems like price and costs were sort of a wash if I’m understanding your remarks correctly. So I guess I’m trying to figure out what else was going on there that was sort of a big headwind for the margin and then I'll just throw the follow-up obviously right in there, which is how do we think about that in 2019 from an incremental margin perspective? Thank you.
Jim Umpleby:
Thanks Steve. Obviously the margins were a little bit lower than we anticipated as well when we gave – when we talked in the third quarter. There were couple of factors underpinning that. One where we did expect a material price actually to exceed manufacturing cost increases in CI. But there is a normal seasonal decline in CI margins, but that was one of the things we expected to partially offset that. That didn't materialize partly because of material cost increases and also because of other manufacturing variances that did occur in the quarter. These included things like the absence of some incentives in Brazil, some variable labor inefficiencies, which were all accumulated to that impact. As we look forward to 2019 I'll point out a couple of things about CI margins which gives us confidence as we move forward. First of all, we did have – we put through the price increases on the 1 of January. Obviously that will impact positively on margins and offset some of that weakness that we saw in the fourth quarter; and secondly, we do see the reset of incentive compensation which will have a positive impact as we move through the year.
Stephen Volkmann:
Okay, so incremental margins next year and a sort of more normal 25% range or is that a bridge too far?
Jim Umpleby:
We don't give margin guidance by segment, but we do would expect next year to see that construction industries margins will be strong and given the things like the price increase and the incentive compensation, obviously those are our tail winds which should help us improve them.
Stephen Volkmann:
Okay, thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question today is coming from Timothy Thein. Please note your affiliation and then pose your question.
Timothy Thein:
Good morning; Citigroup. Andrew may be just to follow-up on that the last thread there, just on pricing for the enterprise as a whole, I think you had talked last quarter about a 1% to 4% announced increased to dealers. And just given that sometimes there is a lapse and maybe some of the end market conditions have changed, just how you're thinking about an overall yield relative to that 1% to 4% increase for 2019.
Andrew Bonfield:
Yeah, I mean there are a couple other factors also which are muddy water, so Timjust to remind you obviously the mid-year price increase we have put that through and some of that will also come through into next year as well. Overall though we do expect -- we take into account as Jim said, the macroeconomic environment and geopolitical factors, when we set our guidance range. We do anticipate obviously, but you know you never get 100% to stake, but we do expect good price realization next year and that will offset any manufacturing costs burns as we expect.
Timothy Thein:
Okay, I mean just to pick a midpoint. If I threw 2% out, that's $1 billion. Maybe you think at this point based on what you've seen and commodity markets and just some of your transportation and logistics, experience in recent months, would you expect that level of variable cost inflation or it's just too many moving parts at this point to pin that down?
Andrew Bonfield:
I think there are a number of moving parts, but our expectation as I said was the price would offset material cost increases.
Timothy Thein:
Okay, thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question today is come from Chad Dillard. Place note your affiliation, then pose your question.
Chad Dillard :
Hi, good morning; its Deutsche Bank. So just wanted to go back to the tariff discussion. Can you quantify how much impact was in fourth quarter and how you are thinking about how that can better in the 2019 guide and which we can buy in terms of cadence as we go through the year?
Andrew Bonfield:
Yeah, so Chad, its Andrew again. So if you remember the third quarter we talked about the rail and we are expecting to be at the bottom end of the $100 million range. We ended up just over $100 million. Our expectation was at this stage we don't see a rate change in the tariffs, that's our expectation, and obviously you’ve been – because you would just extrapolate that out based on 12 months versus five months for 2018.
Chad Dillard :
Great, that's helpful. And then could you provide a little more color on that dealer inventory build. I think we talked about $2.3 billion for 2018 and if you can comment on what you expect that one in 2019 and can you take the entire about out by the full year and?
A - Andrew Bonfield:
Yes, our assumption is obviously as we say or we said consistently, dealer inventory has been constrained and obviously we've you know managed distribution in CI for most of the year. We have seen about a 2 – as you say, the $2.3 billion increase. Keep in mind that dealers are owned and control their own inventory, so that is based on their expectations. We believe that the growth is directly aligned with current market demand and more normal ranges versus historic trends. We expect dealer inventory to be flat. We don't expect any adverse assumptions for the guidance, assuming that there will be no further increase in dealer inventory from our shipments in 2019.
Chad Dillard :
Great. Thank you very much.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question today is coming from David Raso. Please announce your affiliation and then pose your question.
David Raso:
Hi, Evercore ISI. My question is related to the – relates to the sales guidance. You're staying up modestly and I'm just trying to get some sense of maybe cadence or where your confidence is from that sales guide. The backlog is currently up only 4.4%, the implied orders are up like 2% and if you lose the $2.3 billion of inventory benefit to ’18, right, you just said inventory is flat, that's over a 4% drag on your sales growth right there, right, from not getting the $2.3 billion that you got ’18. So can you help us with your comfort level, where you currently are in your order rates, your backlog, that lack of inventory growth in ’19, that sale should be up modestly everyone can quantify that.
Jim Umpleby:
Yeah, this is Jim. So obviously you know our sales guide is, it depends on a whole variety of factors, but we are in constant contact with our dealers, we look at industry trends, we have a bottoms up process and based on everything that we see, we believe that again sales will be up modestly in 2019. We just think about our different market segments and can go around the world. We talked about China a lot and we expect China to be flat after – you know construction industry is a very good increase. We were up 40% in 2018. The industry demand was up 40% in 2018 after doubling in 2017. Oil and gas compression remains strong, both for our recip and solar businesses. We are seeing some weakness in well servicing in recip, but as I mentioned earlier we expect that to resolve itself in the last six months of the year after the takeaway issues in the Permian get resolved. We've got positive momentum in power generation. The U.S. economy continues to be strong and that has an impact on both industrial and on our construction business. In transportation we expect our rail business to be better in 2019 than in 2018. As you know there's a lot of pipeline construction going on in North America, that's a positive for us. So again, we just go through industry by industry, country by country, and develop a forecast and we believe it will be up in 2019 modestly.
David Raso:
But to the cadence question, I think what people are trying to figure out, are we starting the year with any growth rate cushion to be able to absorb second half of ‘19 if it is flat to down. We are just trying to get a sense of starting the year versus what’s sort of baked into the back half. I mean we all can speculate, but I'll be honest, I was hoping to have a little more cushion to start the year from the backlog growth and what you just reported. The thing is we're just trying to get a sense of the cadence and what kind of just around the orders are needed later in the year.
Andrew Bonfield:
David, just to point out a couple of things. I mean the increase in the backlog is – the backlog at the end of the year was $16.5 billion versus $15.8 billion this year. That is despite putting more inventory into the channel. Just don’t forget, these are dealer backlog orders effectively, so dealers have built inventory and they still expect – even though they built it, they are still asking us for $1 billion more on orders than we were at this time last year. So that does give us that confidence. I think as Jim said, you know we also have a look around end markets. We take all of these things into account you know and that doesn’t give us the confidence to be able to say, we expect sales to be up modestly next year.
A - Jim Umpleby:
And we do – certainly as you know, we have lumpiness in our oil and gas business and in our rail business and in our mining business frankly, so there are variations quarter-to-quarter as we ship lot and financially recognize large orders.
David Raso:
No, I appreciate that. Okay, thank you very much.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question today is coming from Ross Gilardi. Please announce your affiliation and then pose your question.
Ross Gilardi:
Hey, good morning everybody; Ross Gilardi, Bank of America.
A - Jim Umpleby:
Good morning Ross.
Ross Gilardi:
Could you help us a little bit on the quarterly earnings cadence for 2019 that you are expecting. I mean you did 255 in the fourth quarter, beat at 282 in the – you know the first quarter of ’18. I mean our earnings up in the first quarter of ‘19 and if they are, can you help bridge with what you did in Q4 with what you would do in Q1.
A - Andrew Bonfield:
Yes Ross, its Andrew. Again, the 255 was impacted by the write downs in Cat Power Finance which we don't expect, and the mark-to-market losses in Cat Financial which we don't expect to recur. If you added that back, that would be about $2.70. We don't give quarterly guidance on earnings, but if that gives you, then you've got on top of that price increases and the start of the selling season which will impact Q1.
Jim Umpleby:
I’ll also add in there is that you recall that we had a very strong Q1 in 2018, so from a comp perspective that will be there as well.
Ross Gilardi:
Okay, got it. And then can you help us all on you know more on the mining OE side of the business and you know what you are expecting from a mining truck perspective and assuming in your 2019 outlook. Obviously that number is still way, way below what I think you guys would consider normalized demand. But are we at a pause here or does that number continue to grow nicely this year?
Jim Umpleby:
So certainly machine utilization by our mining customers continue to increase. We anticipate that our CapEx budgets will increase in 2019. The quotation activity remains robust and we expect our mining business to be higher in 2019 than ‘18, so that is a positive for us.
Ross Gilardi:
Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question today is coming from Jamie Cook. Please announce your affiliation and then pose your question.
Jamie Cook:
Hi, good morning. I just – you know given the macro concerns out there, one, can you comment on you know specifically what is any – are you taking any actions, you know whether it's production or you know additional cost actions you know given that concerns about the macro environment. I'm just trying to understand whether you guys are being proactive here or not, so first, if you could comment on that. And then my second question is, I know you said dealer inventory is expected to be sort of flat year-over-year. Are you doing anything as well with the dealers to make sure you know we are not over ordering or you know to again prepare for a market that could potentially be weaker. Thank you.
Jim Umpleby:
Yeah Jamie, certainly we've kept a very close control of costs and we saw that very cost in the fourth quarter of ‘18 were actually less than they were in the fourth quarter of 2017. I do remind you though that we are guiding to a sales – a modest sales increase in 2019, so we are not guiding to a sales decrease. Having said that we will continue to closely monitor costs and we’ll always be ready for whatever the market send us. You know one of the things that we believe are in much better shape. At some point there will be a market downturn. We are not calling that ’19, but whenever that does occur we are certainly in a much better position to generate cash than we were in the last downturn. So again, we’ll be very cost disciplined here moving forward.
Jamie Cook:
And then sorry, just another one more follow-up. Just understanding restructuring is now part of GAAP, can you just help us understand what that number is and then also just the finance of contribution ‘19 versus ‘18 just given some of the one-offs that we had in ’18? Thank.
Andrew Bonfield:
Yeah, so we would – obviously we are all going to a period where restructuring becomes much more normal. This year the charge was around $400 million. You should expect it to be substantially lower than that, otherwise we would still be adjusting it out of adjusted profit. I'm not going to give you a number, because obviously it depends on what activities we do and it will be reported in the Q and it depends on what actions we take in the business during the year, but it will be part of normal operating earnings and that’s taking into account in that guidance. The other part of the question…
Jamie Cook:
The finance...
Jim Umpleby:
Yeah, so this year I think write-offs relating to the Cat Power Finance portfolio in Latin America have amounted to somewhere around about $150 million in total. That would be the area in which we wouldn't expect to recover.
Jamie Cook:
Okay, I appreciate the color, thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question today is coming from Joe O’Dea. Please announce your affiliation and then pose your question.
Joe O’Dea:
Hi, good morning. It's Vertical Research. I wanted to understand some of the cost headwinds in the quarter are a little bit better, so the degree to which you can expand on some of what happened on the materials and freight side that surprised you in the quarter, and then to understand how those work moving forward? Is that something that is corrected as of today and back to the kind of cost structure you expected to end 2018 with or those things that persist as of today and how long will that be the case?
Andrew Bonfield:
Yeah, yeah so I mean obviously things like manufacturing variances which were attributable to the absorption rates and so forth, obviously they end at the end of that period and they were a portion of that negative variance in the quarter and obviously that will be taken into account as we move into 2019 by some production, and we’ll obviously continue to work those through. With regards to the material costs and freight costs, I mean we did see some material cost increases in the fourth quarter, which as we said we weren't expecting. Part of that is due to the fact that obviously we are an environment of constraint supply still and those did feed through into cost. Those will be built into numbers for 2019 and into our guidance range, so effectively we’ll be a part of that manufacturing cost being offset by price realization as we move forward. So those are the two big things regarding that.
Joe O’Dea:
And as of October you were talking I think about price offsetting cost and so is that meaning that you know a little bit more assertive on the price front to go after some of these costs or just trying to understand that dynamic of price cost neutrality and I think that was expected three months ago. You've got higher costs today, but you still expect to offset the unit price.
Andrew Bonfield:
Yeah, I think actually what we really expect to do is a little bit stronger performance in the fourth quarter than we actually expect price to more than offset costs. It didn't happen and so that was the – that was the challenge that actually happened there. As you look into 2019, as we said, we expect price to offset manufacturing cost increases.
Joe O’Dea:
Got it. And then just on the revenue expectations for the year and the modest growth, as you walk through some of the key end markets and the puts and takes there, it's unclear I guess the degree to which you know you are looking at a scenario where you know volumes are up. So I think you know most of the commentary leans a little bit more constructive. There are some clear pockets of headwinds, but you know overall it leans a little bit more constructive and so is that to suggest that you know the base case expectation here is that we've got a little bit of volume growth in 2019 on top of the pricing expectations.
Jim Umpleby:
Yes, yes, there is there is a modest amount of volume increase on top of good price, that's correct.
Joe O’Dea:
Great, thanks very much.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question today is coming from Ann Duignan. Please announce your affiliation and then pose your question.
Ann Duignan :
Yes, hi, good morning; its JP Morgan. I'd like to go back to the financial services business and I was hoping you could give us some color on the unfavorable impact from returned or repossessed equipment in Europe and Latin America specifically. Should we now be concerned that residual values are set too high and that this is just the beginning at negative residual value risk for the finco as we go forward, both in Europe and LATAM.
Andrew Bonfield:
Actually, most of that – Ann, this is Andrew again. Most of that is related actually to the Cat Power Financial portfolio rather than to construction equipment and that was specific items related to the portfolio I was talking about where we have had some troubled loans which we are making substantial progress on actually working through those. We've taken write offs in the second quarter and the fourth quarter and the residual risk is being managed and also the portfolio is been managed going forward. This is not a reflection of construction industry residuals.
Jim Umpleby:
If those write-offs were associated with, primarily with the marine portfolio for loans that were made quite some time ago.
Ann Duignan :
Okay, and those are a surprise or have you been anticipating those as you run through the year?
Jim Umpleby:
I mean, as it always happens and until you actually take or repossess a piece of equipment back, you don't actually know what the real value is, so you have an estimate and some of those estimates were proving to be wrong.
Ann Duignan :
Okay, and just real quick on my follow up on the revenue guidance, you know up modest but pricing should be 2.5% which again as others have pointed out, so just you know for the flat volumes. Can you talk about what you are seeing broadly in Europe? I know Turkey was a source of weakness, but are you seeing any broader weakness in Europe across the different regions?
A - Jim Umpleby:
Yes Ann, I don't believe we gave the 2.5% price guidance for ’19, so I think that was…
Ann Duignan :
A 1-4 aggregate is 2.5, right?
Jim Umpleby:
That’s fine, that’s fine. So we talked about – just going around the world you asked about Europe, but again Turkey's been an area of real concern. Just going around the world, Brazil has been tough, Argentina has been tough, South Africa has been tough. But in terms of pointing to a particular country in Europe that has created concern for us, no. Obviously well are all waiting to see what happens with Brexit and how that'll shake out, but no, other than Turkey that's the biggest concern.
Ann Duignan :
Okay, I’ll leave it there, thank you.
Jim Umpleby:
Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question today is coming from Mig Dobre. Please announce your affiliation and then pose your question.
Mig Dobre:
Yes sir, good morning, Baird. I want to go back to maybe understanding what's going on, on the cost side a little bit better. If you are saying that volumes here are going to grow modestly next year, how should we think about the manufacturing costs that are currently embedded in your outlook in terms of the headwinds on that and can you also may be comment at all on how you are thinking about R&D, how you are thinking about SG&A and I know somebody already asked a restructuring question. But what would you consider to be a normal restructuring level in terms of the transport for the business?
Andrew Bonfield:
Yeah, so starting on – as well I think we’ve tried to say, we expect price and manufacturing to offset each other, so that's our expectation. And obviously you know the timing of how those price increases come through and how that feeds through into the business route will be something that we'll be reporting on, but overall we expect the two to brush through the year. We will continue to make targeted investments in both R&D and in SG&A to expand their service offering and also other offerings as well, so those will – but we will be disciplined about those increases and they will affect around things which we expect to get a return on as you move forward. With regards to restructuring, the problem is if I give you a number today within restructuring, I can guarantee you that something will happen during the year which will change it, because as we know restructuring charges can only be taken once actually, and the announcements were made of some restructuring event. But what we expect them to be is substantially below the $400 million this year and therefore that's why we are prepared to observe what would have been normal earnings profit per share for the year.
Mig Dobre:
I see. Well, you know instead of asking a question maybe I'll just make a comment. I don't know about the other participants on the call, but as far as I'm concerned I can tell you I'm having a really hard time equating exactly all that’s baked into guidance vis-à-vis, but we’re all kind of learning it in terms of how commodity prices are progressing, fuel prices are progressing and really kind of your putting your overall outlook together for 2019. So I'm wondering, if there's a way at the Analyst Day or maybe next call that we can get a little more granularity at signal level in terms of what are you thinking from revenue and what you are thinking for margins as well. I think that would be really helpful. Thank.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question today is coming from Jerry Revich. Please announce your affiliation and then pose your question.
Jerry Revich :
Hi, good morning; its Goldman Sachs.
A - Jim Umpleby:
Hey Jerry.
Jerry Revich :
Jim, I’m wondering if you could expand on your earlier comments in terms of pretty good quotation activity and resource industries. Can you just give us a flavor for in terms of commodities that are driving increase today and when do you expect that to translate to seeing order and backlog growth and resource indices again. Yeah, are you hearing from your customers that we're going to need greater clarity on U.S. China trade relations for them to place the orders or any additional context along those points would be helpful please?
Jim Umpleby:
You know what we’ve seen is the idle truck fleet continue to decline throughout 2018. As I mentioned earlier, the utilization of machines continue to increase. We believe that most of the units have now been bought back online and of course we are in a situation for number of years where there was a very large fleet parked and that is no longer the case. Most analysts are forecasting an average of 5% to 6% growth in miner’s capital spending in 2019 compared to 2018. Certainly mining companies are working to get the most out of their assets and they're you know they are being cautious as to when they place orders, but quotation activity as I mentioned is quite robust. We are selling more product and we expect to have a higher level of business in ’19. Certainly there is some softness in areas like Indonesian coal, but again that's being offset by demand in other regions.
Jerry Revich :
And just to put a finer point on that, are you at a point where you think where now that quotation activity after hitting a pause and translating to orders in the back half of ‘18 will see greater pace of new equipment orders in the first half ‘19 based on the timing of the tenders that you are looking at?
Jim Umpleby:
Again, mining in particular is quite lumpy and you can get orders. A single order for a very large number of pieces of equipment that has an impact on the backlog, so again I hesitate to try to quantify it in terms of a quarterly cadence, but again year-on- year 2019 we expect higher sales ’19 than ‘18.
Jerry Revich :
Okay, thank you. And Jim the other area that you mentioned that's positive in ‘19 is locomotives. Can you just frame for us based on the production plant and orders in hand how much of a production ramp are we thinking about ‘19 verses ‘18 compared to you the healthy run rate this business was at prior to Q4?
Jim Umpleby :
Yeah, you know we are not going to quantify it, but certainly again you know the rail traffic has in fact increased in 2018. I think we mentioned in a previous call the we had good growth in real services and with higher traffic and also we made a couple of acquisitions as we mentioned earlier this morning. So we expect continued growth in our service and parts businesses, we are seeing rebuilt again, we expect our business to increase in ’19, would hesitate to try to compare it to where we were in previous period, but it is getting better.
Jerry Revich :
Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question today is coming from Seth Weber. Please announce your affiliation and then pose your question.
Seth Weber:
Hey, good morning; its RBC. I wanted to just go back to China for a second. You did talk about expectations for the Chinese construction market, the industry being kind of flattish, but can you just talk about whether you're seeing anything unusual there from a competitive pricing perspective and whether that is something that kind of contributed to the lower than expected construction margins in the quarter? Thanks.
Jim Umpleby:
I think as Andrew mentioned, that really did not impact construction margins in the quarter, that's not one of the things that we cited. Certainly you know we have competitors all over the world, we have competitors in China, but you know we are very well positioned in China. We have invested significantly. We have more than 20 manufacturing facilities. We have roughly 13,000 employees. We have local leadership teams. We’ve vertically integrated our supply chain in China, so we are very well positioned to compete and win in China. We're introducing new products. So we feel good about our competitive situation in China and again there's a variety of forecasts that are out there, but after two years of a robust growth in CI for us in China we expect to be about flat next year.
Andrew Bonfield:
Yeah, can I just add a little bit of color on the CAT sales in China actually relating to this, because we did see very strong sales in the fourth quarter of 2017, which then fell through into the first half of this year where obviously China as you would expect in the normal selling season pre this summer actually were very, very strong. Third quarter and fourth quarter have diminished slightly form those first half of the year as you would expect a return to much more normal pattern. So actually – it wasn’t actually an overall view of China for the year that impacted the quarter. It actually was just a weakness relating to a very strong comparative in 2017.
Seth Weber:
That’s helpful. Thank you and Andrew maybe just follow-up on the, I think you said share buyback, you are targeting about 750 in the first quarter, which would be down for you know $1.8 billion here in the fourth quarter and you're sitting on you know $8 billion of cash. Is there a reason why you are not being more aggressive, I guess versus the 750 outlook for the first quarter?
Andrew Bonfield:
Yeah, a couple of things. One to think about, on which is obviously we’ve always said we would be opportunistic and would depend on market conditions, and so forth as to when we are going to market and our other uses of cash. The reality is actually in the first quarter we have a lower cash flow partially because of our incentive compensation payments. So we do take that into account when we're considering the amount of year. As you'll know now, this will be the fourth quarter in a row which will have done $750 million. Our aim is to be in the market on a more consistent basis rather than be in and out. But we will take opportunities try to actually go back and buy more, but that would depend on our free cash flow and other investment priorities.
Amy Campbell :
And I think that's going to – thanks Seth. I think that's going to need to be our last question. Jim do you have any final comments.
Jim Umpleby :
Well, thank you Amy. Again, 2018 was a terrific year for CAT. We achieved record profit per share and strong operating cash flow, returned significant capital to shareholders and continued to invest for long term growth. Again as I mentioned, we believe our enterprise strategy is working. Even though 2018 was a record year, we’ve increased our profit per share outlook for 2019 and look forward to continuing to serve our customers. Thanks for joining today’s call. We look forward to speaking with you next quarter.
Amy Campbell :
Thanks Jim. And Kate, I think that concludes our call.
Operator:
Thank you ladies and gentlemen. This does conclude today's conference call. You may disconnect your phone lines at this time and have a wonderful day. Thank you for your participation.
Executives:
Amy Campbell - Director, IR Jim Umpleby - CEO Andrew Bonfield - CFO Joe Creed - VP Finance
Analysts:
Joe O’Dea - Vertical Research Ross Gilardi - Bank of America Steven Fisher - UBS Jamie Cook - Credit Suisse Ann Duignan - JP Morgan Andrew Casey - Wells Fargo Securities David Raso - Evercore ISI Jerry Revich - Goldman Sachs Stephen Volkmann - Jefferies Rob Wertheimer - Melius Research Sameer Rathod - Macquarie Research Joel Tiss - BMO Chad Dillard - Deutsche Bank
Operator:
Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Caterpillar 3Q 2018 Earnings Results Conference Call. At this time, all participants have been placed on a listen-only mode, and we will open the floor for your questions and comments after the presentation. It is now my pleasure to turn the floor over to your host, Amy Campbell. Ma’am, the floor is yours.
Amy Campbell:
Thank you, Kate. Good morning. And welcome everyone to our third quarter earnings call. On the call today, I am pleased to have our CEO, Jim Umpleby; and our CFO, Andrew Bonfield, and our Vice President of finance services Joe Creed. Remember, this call is copyrighted by Caterpillar, Inc., and any use, recording or transmission of any portion of the call without the expressed written consent of Caterpillar is strictly prohibited. If you’d like a copy of today’s call transcript, we’ll be posting it in the Investors section of our caterpillar.com website. This morning we will be discussing forward-looking information that involves risks, uncertainties, and assumptions that could cause our actual results to be different than the information discussed. Details on the factors that either individually or in the aggregate could make actual results differ materially from our projections can be found in our filings with the SEC and our forward-looking statements included in today's financial release. In addition a reconciliation of non-GAAP measures can be found in the appendix of this morning's presentation and in our release which is posted at caterpillar.com/earnings. With that I'll turn it over to Jim.
Jim Umpleby:
Thank you Amy and good morning. First I'd like to introduce Andrew Bonfield our new Chief Financial Officer. Andrew joined Caterpillar on September 1. Andrew has more than three decades of global financial experience. Most recently he was grouped CFO and board member of National Grid PLC, a British multinational electricity and gas utility company. Prior to National Grid Andrew was Chief Financial Officer at Cadbury PLC and also served as executive Vice President and Chief Financial officer at Bristol-Myers Squibb. We are delighted to have Andrew on board. He's a welcome addition to our company and our executive office. Andrew will walk you through our financial results and after I provide a brief overview of our third quarter performance as well as our outlook. We had an outstanding quarter thanks to both higher sales and excellent operational performance. Many of our mid end markets continue to be strong. Sales and revenue were $13.5 billion and 18% increase over the third quarter of last year. We also earned profit per share of $2.88 which is the highest third quarter profit per share in Caterpillar's 93-year history. This is the third consecutive quarter our company has delivered record profit per share. Adjusted profit per share was $2.86 up 47% from the third quarter of 2017. Third quarter operating profit was about $2.1 billion, 41% more than the third quarter of 2017. Adjusted operating margin for the quarter was 16.6% that's 260 basis points higher than the third quarter of 2017 and consistent with the first half of this year despite input cost headwinds. These profit levels and margins are due to the excellent work of our global team and demonstrate that our strategy for long-term profitable growth and our discipline on structural costs are delivering measurable performance improvements. We finished the quarter with $8 billion of enterprise cash. That's after paying more than $500 million in dividends, repurchasing $750 million of Caterpillar common stock and making a $1 billion discretionary pension contribution. In the first nine months of 2018, we've returned $3.4 billion to shareholders. Our solid operational performance gives us the flexibility to invest on growth and to continue returning capital to shareholders. We intend to continue doing both in a sustained and disciplined way. Using the operating and execution model as our guide we will continue to invest in areas that represents a significant opportunities for profitable organic growth especially in services and new and enhanced offerings which are key components of our strategy. We also continue to look at non-organic growth opportunities, but we will do so in a disciplined way. Let me walk you through some examples of how we're investing for future growth. We continue to deploy more digital service offerings in autonomy and automation technology for mining. We're collaborating with a gold-mining customer in Nevada supported by our local CAT dealer to automate underground loaders and enable machine operators to work safely and efficiently from a control room on the surface. We're improving existing technology and accelerating deployment of new features. We're also working with a mining customer in Western Australia where we've secured a deal for the first commercial installation of a retrofit kit to enable autonomous operation of competitor mining trucks using Cat MineStar command for hauling. With this Cat system customers can operate different brands and sizes of trucks, both manned and autonomous in the same space and scale up fleet size to meet the mines' needs. Our autonomous solutions are demonstrating significant productivity improvements for our customers. We also continue to roll out expanded product offerings to meet the diverse needs of our customers. Last month we expanded the articulated dump truck lineup by reintroducing the 40-ton size class with a new Cat 740 GC model that incorporates proven features and performance including new controls and systems for transmission protection, stability assist, and advanced traction control and a fuel saving eco mode. Just last week we unveiled several new Cat mini hydraulic excavator models in the 1 to 2 ton and 7 to 10 ton size classes. These mini hexes are part of our next generation excavator roll out up again in 2017. We believe these new models provide the best performance, versatility, safety, operator convenience, and affordability in these size classes. With these machines we're also reaching out to a broader customer base to local and regional contractors who may be in the market for their first yellow iron Cat machine. These examples of digital technology services and expanded offerings are part of our mission to help our customers both current and future be more successful with Caterpillar than with any of our competitors. Now for the outlook. Our profit per share outlook for the year is $10.65 to $11.65 and we've maintained the guidance given last quarter for adjusted profit per share in the range of $11 to $12. We expect normal seasonal patterns for sales growth in the fourth quarter and also expect to continue our strong operational performance. As we discussed with you last quarter Caterpillar participates in diverse end markets. Many of our end markets are in the early stages of recovery while others are experiencing robust demand. We feel good about the state of our business. We continue to monitor end market fundamentals, we will provide 2019 guidance in January. Currently, we believe favorable commodity prices, strong economic growth, and the global need for infrastructure will continue to drive strong and user demand across many of our end markets. More specifically we believe economic fundamentals, attractive oil prices, and the need for oil and gas infrastructure are positive for construction industries in North America. For Asia-Pacific while sales for CI remain strong across the region we continue to monitor China demand to determine the trajectory of future sales. For the remainder of 2018 we expect normal seasonal trends for China. In EAME, in Latin America we are seeing positive signs for CI in most countries but there have been some recent areas of weakness which we believe will be contained. For resource industries robust economic growth and infrastructure investments are driving strong demand in heavy construction applications which we expect to continue. While our global mining customer sales are improving the recovery is still in the early stages and we expect higher demand for new equipment moving forward. Energy and transportation is our most diverse segment and serves a wide variety of end markets. Current oil prices are positive for E&T. Sales in the North American compression and while service applications remain very strong. Well, there have been take away capacity issues in the Permian basin we are seeing increased activity across other basins and expect production and the Permian to grow after the capacity issues are addressed. Demand for new equipment for onshore and offshore drilling as well as offshore oil and gas production remained weak. We continue to see positive momentum and power generation. The North American rail market is also showing signs of recovery. Total car loads improved and stored locomotives are down from a year ago. We are seeing an increase in activity for new locomotives as well as demand increases for rail services and locomotive rebuilds. In summary, we feel good about the fundamentals of many of our end markets despite the presence of geopolitical risks and global trade tensions. We're focused on a strong finish to 2018 and we'll share more about our 2019 outlook in January. With that I'll turn it over to Andrew.
Andrew Bonfield:
Thank you Jim and good morning every one. First, I just wanted to say how excited I am to join Caterpillar. In particular it's great to be here today to share such an impressive set of results with you. Let's start by turning to slide three, and I will discuss the third quarter financial results in a bit more detail. Sales and revenues were $13.5 billion, up 18% from last year with continued growth across all three of our primary segments. While many of our end markets continue to improve, North American economic strength and oil price stability drove higher levels of construction activity as well as higher demand for well servicing and gas compression equipment. In addition, resource industries machine sales were up significantly. Third quarter profit per share of $2.88 and adjusted profit per share of $2.86 are up 63% and 47% from year ago on higher sales, improved operational performance, and disciplined resource allocation. As Jim noted this was a record third quarter profit per share performance and these results demonstrate that our strategy is working. If you move to slide four, I will walk through what drove the 41% increase in operating profit. As you can see in the chart higher sales volume contributed $793 million, more operating profit compared to last year. Price realization was $155 million or about 1% higher than the third quarter of last year. Manufacturing costs increased by $205 million due to higher material and freight costs. In all, material costs were off about 2% on highest fuel prices and the impacts of tariffs. Freight costs continues to be elevated due to a variety of factors including higher rates, less efficient loads, an expedited freight costs as we ramp up production to meet increased demand. Even though the mid-year price increase had only a partial impact in the quarter the drag of higher input costs and tariffs was just $50 million more than price realization. We are also continuing to look for operational efficiencies to reduce the impact further. We expect that this effort plus the benefit of mid-year price increase will further moderate the impact of material and freight costs in the fourth quarter. SG&A and R&D costs were up $77 million in the quarter. That's an increase of 5% compared to an 18% increase in sales and revenues. Jim gave a few examples of how we are investing that money to drive long-term shareholder return but this cost discipline is a key factor in improving our operating margins. Financial products was favorable by $36 million as the core business continues to perform well with higher financing rates, a favorable impact from returned or repossessed equipment, and higher average earning assets in North America and Asia-Pacific. [indiscernible]increased this year this is largely isolated to a few customers in Latin America experiencing economic challenges and in the Cat power finance portfolio. Overall we believe the portfolio remains healthy. The adjusted operating margin for the quarter was 16.6% which is on the high end of our Investor Day range and 260 basis points higher than the third quarter of 2017. Now let's look at the performance of each segment beginning with construction industries on slide five. Sales were $5.7 billion in the third quarter, an increase of $0.8 billion or 16%. CI sales increased across all regions except Latin America. Sales in North America were up almost $0.5 billion and North America drive about 60% of the total third quarter sales growth. Much of this was driven by oil and gas related projects including pipelines and other non residential construction growth. Asia-Pacific sales were up 19% or $239 million with the most significant increase continuing to be from China. In the quarter our dealers in China were able to restock from very low to more normal levels of inventory. We continue to expect industry sales for 10-ton and above excavators to be up about 40% for the full year. Since there has been some speculation about level of sales in China I wanted to clarify that for construction industries sales in China range from 10% to 15% of total segment sales and China accounts for 5% to 10% of total company sales from revenues. Outside China most of the countries in the Asia-Pacific region had higher sales on broad economic strength. Overall EMEA sales were up 10% and Latin American sales were down slightly. While higher demand for infrastructure and building construction activities in both of these regions were broadly favorable, isolated economic uncertainties in Turkey, South Africa, and Argentina did have a negative impact on these markets in the quarter. Turning to profit, CI segments profit increased by 20% over the last year to $1.1 billion. Operating margin was 18.6% which is higher than the investor day range as construction industries continues to demonstrate the power of the operating and execution model to allocate resources to grow profitably and grow control costs. Let's move to slide six. The resource industries team also turned in another great quarter. RI sales were $2.6 billion, up 35% from the third quarter of 2017. Sales for new equipment increased across all regions and demand for aftermarket parts remained strong to support overhauls and maintenance. In fact this was the highest quarter for sales since the fourth quarter of 2013. Our mining customers are placing orders for new equipment as commodity prices remain above investment thresholds. However, our customers globally continue to focus on improving the productivity and efficiency of their existing machine assets thereby delaying full fleet replacements. In addition to the recovery mining, strong global economic growth and infrastructure investment also contributed to higher sales for heavy construction equipment. Segment profit of $414 million was up 81% versus third quarter of last year. Segment operating margin improved 15.7% at the top end of the Investor day range of 12% to 16% and up 400 basis points from 2017. RI's improved performance and margin expansion is primarily due to higher sales; improved price realization of more than 4% and the operating leverage gained through significant restructuring and the team's disciplined cost management. These gains were partially offset by higher manufacturing costs including freight and material costs and higher SG&A and R&D expenses to invest for profitable growth. Now let's turn to slide 7 where we will discuss energy and transportation. E&T sales in the third quarter were $5.6 billion, 15% higher than the same quarter last year with sales increasing across all applications except industrial. Sales into oil and gas applications were up by $297 million or 28% as we continue to see strength in onshore activity in North America especially for gas compression and well servicing applications. Power generation sales increased by $204 million or 23% driven primarily by sales of reciprocating engines to support data center and power plant applications as well as higher aftermarket part sales. Industrial application sales were down 2% largely due to economic activity in Turkey. However, sales in North America and Asia-Pacific increased slightly over the third quarter of last year. Transportation sales were up 12%. This sales growth continues to be driven by a recent European and Australian mail service acquisitions and higher North American rail traffic. Segment profit for energy and transportation was $973 million, up $230 million from the third quarter of last year. The segment margin improved by 210 basis points to 17.5% which is also at the high end of the Investor day range. E&T's profit improvement was mostly due to the higher sales volume but this was partially offset by higher manufacturing costs and increased SG&A and R&D expenses. I want to spend a few moments discussing cash flow which is shown on slide 8. Our ME&T operating cash flow was $848 million for the third quarter and we finished the quarter with $8 billion of enterprise cash on hand. Operating cash flow in the quarter was $237 million higher than last year reflecting the higher profits but after taking into account a $1 billion discretionary pension fund contribution. This pension contribution gave rise to a favorable tax deduction and also provides cash flow flexibility for the next few years. As Jim mentioned we've continued to return capital to shareholders with $511 million of dividends paid and the repurchase of $750 million of Caterpillar stock in the quarter. We remain committed to investing to profitably grow our business. Our current operational performance has provided the added benefit of strong operating cash flows to a solid balance sheet. We intend to use this flexibility to both invest for growth and continue returning capital to shareholders in a disciplined way. Resource allocation the long term profitable growth will remain the highest priority. One of the many reasons I came to Caterpillar was my belief that discipline created by the operating and execution model is the right way to evaluate opportunities and lead us to drive long-term profitable growth. In addition to profitable growth and capital allocation strategy we will remain focus on sustainable dividend growth and being in the market for share repurchases on a more consistent basis. We expect share repurchases in the fourth quarter to be at least $750 million bringing the total buyback to at least $2.75 billion for the year. As we have said in the past we will be more opportunistic and look to go beyond that depending on market conditions and investment priorities. Let's move to slide 9. Our profit per share outlook for the year is $10.65 to $11.65 and we are maintaining our second quarter guidance of $11 to $12 per adjusted profit per share. We have not updated the adjusted profit per share outlook range because nothing material has changed since we updated the outlook in July. Since our assumptions have not changed and the third quarter came in above where we expected, we believe it makes sense to maintain that outlook for the full year. Order rates and the backlog remain healthy with the backlog up almost $2 billion from the third quarter of 2017. Construction industries remains our managed distribution and production rates for large machines and large engines continue to increase with demand. We believe the increase in dealer inventory in the quarter reflects current end user demand and in some regions and in some products was necessary to improve availability to the end customer. As measured by months of sales dealer inventory ended the quarter at the low end of historical averages. So in short we feel good about the state of our business and with that I will turn it back to Amy to begin the Q&A portion of the call.
Amy Campbell:
Thank you Andrew. Kate it is now time to began the Q&A portion of the call. Participants should limit their questions to one plus a follow up.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen the floor is now open for questions. [Operator Instructions] Our first question today is coming from Joe O’Dea. Please announce your affiliation. Then pose your question.
Joe O’Dea:
Hi good morning. It's Vertical Research. First question Jim your comments across end markets were pretty constructive and encouraging and I think we see kind of a disconnect in where we are seeing a stock reaction to what seems like kind of an outlook right now that would continue to support further growth moving forward. I guess one question just on backlog and seeing that nudge down a little bit sequentially, any commentary across segments and whether or not some of this is lead time related, some of this is just general macro uncertainty but seeing a slight softening there versus what sounds like otherwise pretty strong end market conditions.
Jim Umpleby:
Good Morning Joe. Maybe it makes sense just to spend a few minutes expanding upon how we're doing in each of the markets. We talked about construction industries and that we continue to see very strong demand in Asia-Pacific particularly in China but also in North America in the EAME. Again in energy and transportation very strong activity in onshore gas compression while servicing industry is also strong. We don't see, we haven't experienced a slowdown much has been written about the Permian but we have not experienced a slowdown in our business. It's still been quite strong and people have talked a lot about the fact that there are take away capacity issues and of course whenever pipelines are built that's a good thing for our CI business as well. So again we feel bullish about that business. Heavy construction and resource industry is continues to be strong. In rail, we've seen an increase in locomotive rebuilds and modernization. We've also seen higher service and part sales. Rail traffic in North America is certainly increased and we've seen a year-over-year reduction the number of ideal locomotives and rail cars. So we expect new locomotive orders continue to improve. We've seen some business from outside the U.S. as well. We have talked about the fact that that Latin America is a bit slow to recover in construction industries and offshore oil and gas production has been slow, but again we feel good about the state of our business. We feel that the business continues to be strong in most of our end markets and we're not frankly concerned about dealer inventories, backlog and I like Andrew coming on that.
Andrew Bonfield:
Yes. So I mean obviously we did see the backlog go down by about $400 million in the quarter but remind you that for the year-to-date it is still up nearly $2 billion since the third quarter of last year. At the same time obviously we were building inventory into dealers. We still are at the bottom end of normal ranges. So even though the dealer inventory has gone up over $2 billion since the beginning of the year so that's all indicative of dealers having confidence and obviously the 800 million stock build -- inventory build in the quarter was a lot less than the drop in order backlog. So that does mean that strong demand -- overall dealers are still feeling positive about end consumption.
Joe O’Dea:
Thank you. Appreciate those details and then just a follow-up related to price cost and general outlook for price cost moving forward whether or not price cost should actually shift more favorably moving forward, looking at pricing announcements next year into dealers material costs stabilizing and whether we see any kind of improvement on some of the constraints with supply chain and materials and whether all that translates to a little bit more favorable price cost situation moving into the end of the year and then into next year?
Jim Umpleby:
On pricing we are starting to see the impact of the mid-year price increase and we expect price realization to more than offset material cost and freight expense for the full year. We recently communicated to our dealers a 1% to 4% price increase that will be effective in January of ‘19. We are working our way through supplying constraints and again we feel good about the environment for pricing just as I mentioned moving forward.
Joe O’Dea:
Got it. Thanks very much.
Amy Campbell:
Thank you Joe.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question today is coming from Ross Gilardi. Please announce your affiliation then pose your question.
Ross Gilardi:
Hey good morning guys Bank of America. Jim, how do we think about the retail numbers that came out on last night? I mean you were up 21% in September but your comp I think goes from being up 13% in September to up 34% by the end of the year in December. So as you exit 2018 are we looking at low to mid single retail -- low to mid single digit retail sales growth is that what's implied at the mid-20 of your guide.
Jim Umpleby:
No, I'm not going to make a comment and give you a forecast for retail stats, but I've talked about the end state of our markets and the fact that we feel good about those. Based on everything we see today we expect our business to continue to improve in 2019.
Ross Gilardi:
Okay. What's the feedback you're getting from the minors on some of the elevated uncertainty in China I mean are there any RFPs out there they've been put on the back burner until things settle down with the trade situation and what are you seeing on large mining equipment demand from non-China emerging markets as well? Thanks.
Jim Umpleby:
Again as I mentioned earlier resource industries business continues to improve. Truck levels are now at the lowest level they've been since 2012. There are still more trucks to bring back online but it's contributing to strong after market demand and we're seeing strong parts demand to support increases in machine utilization. So we certainly feel good about the trajectory of our mining business. Commodities such as copper and gold have been strong. RI's experience growth across all regions. So again we do feel good about RI. Market fundamentals seem to be improving and are quite solid.
Ross Gilardi:
Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question today is coming from Steven Fisher. Pleas announce your affiliation then pose your question.
Steven Fisher:
Great. Thanks. Good morning at the UBS. I know on China you said you expect the normal seasonal pattern for the rest of 2018 but really curious how you're thinking about China in 2019. It seems like we're heading back in infrastructure stimulus mode there. So do you see any evidence of that having a positive impact on sales or quoting yet and does what they have announced so far in this regard sound being full enough to support ongoing growth in the construction equipment business there for you.
Jim Umpleby:
Just a few general comments about China. Certainly it's an important market for us. It averages 5% to 10% of total company sales and revenues and for CI it's about 10% to 15%. There's a lot of different scenarios of course forecasting what's going to happen in China. Based on everything that we see we believe that the China market will continue to be healthy. Excavator demand is up significantly this year after it more than doubled last year and again we feel good about China for next year.
Steven Fisher:
Okay and in terms of the resource business how should we think about the margin trajectory there going forward as the original equipment sales continue to pick up and you didn't really call out the margin mix on the margin result this quarter, which came in a little bit lower than our expectation. So has that mix shifts even noticeably started yet and if it does can that be offset by any more advantageous price versus cost?
Jim Umpleby:
Yes, I'd urge caution both in particularly in RI and E&T and looking at quarter-to-quarter margins both of those businesses tend to be very lumpy. So we expect quarter-to- quarter variations, in margins up and down and so what we really suggest you look at is our year to your improvement which is what we're really focused on doing. We talked about our targets for margin expectations at Investor Day and we are towards the top end of those or above those. So again we feel good about that as well.
Steven Fisher:
But have you seen that impact started yet on the mix shift between O&E and aftermarket or is that still mostly ahead of us?
Jim Umpleby:
I would say that in terms of the new equipment we expect that to improve moving forward. So we're certainly seeing activity for new equipment but we expect that to continue to improve. If we step back and think about where we've been from an historical perspective we are still below averages and it's not much as comparing to the peak but we have a long way to go to improve on O&E for mining.
Steven Fisher:
Okay so the margin mix might change but you're going to still see bigger dollars ahead it sounds like?
Jim Umpleby:
Yes and one of the things also that keep in mind is for next year we have a -- we're going to have a stiff tailwind that's going to have a positive impact in all of our segments as we reset step for next year. That's also out there as well. It's another tailwind to keep in mind.
Steven Fisher:
Perfect. Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question today is coming from Jamie Cook. Please announce your affiliation then pose your question.
Jamie Cook:
Hi good morning and Andrew welcome to the fun world of industrials. I guess two questions one Andrew for you specifically. Can you just talk about sort of what your top priorities are as CFO of Caterpillar and while Cats answered some questions on sort of share repurchase how you guys are thinking about being more opportunistic on share repurchase given where your stock price is today and perhaps the markets view of what's going on in the macro versus yours and your ability to earn a higher trough EPS and then my second question Amy I'll try you guys sound fairly constructive as we think about ‘19 in terms of volume without specifically stating a number but are there any material positives or negatives we should think about whether it's stock comp, repo or structuring benefits dealer inventories as we think about ‘19 versus ‘18? Thank you.
Andrew Bonfield:
Yes. So thanks Jamie, and yes it's great to be here and yes it is always exciting to see such a good set of results be put out in front of you guys today. Priorities, I think you shouldn't be surprised obviously the things about making sure that we execute the O&E model particularly well as we move forward. Resource allocation in particular obviously needs to be something we keep a focus on to make sure we drive that profitable growth that we're trying to target and achieve. So working with Jim and the other members of the executive office to do that. Obviously again you mentioned about capital allocation that is something which again obviously is I know a lot of investor have a lot of focus on obviously we have the $10 billion buyback approved by the board. That will obviously be a key focus as we move forward. Obviously we need to think through how we manage the balance sheet through the cycle and that's something which I will work on and look to as we move forward but obviously as we said and we indicated again we will be opportunistic and go above the $750 million if obviously at times where we think. The share prices below in terms of value which is what it is at the moment.
Jim Umpleby:
I will jump in Jamie, taking on the question you had for Amy so on ‘19 obviously it’s [truly] for us to provide a lot of specifics as I mentioned earlier we expect our business to continue to improve in ‘19 versus ‘18 is a lot of puts and takes and we take price realization along with the recent of step and continued cost discipline to offset cost headwinds and we have a healthy backlog, good order rates and we are taking orders for some products well in the 2019. We feel good about state of our business and frankly we expect both the top end and the bottom line to improve in 2019 versus 2018.
Jamie Cook:
Okay. Thank you. I appreciate the color.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question today is coming from Ann Duignan. Please announce your affiliation then pose your question.
Ann Duignan:
Yes. Good morning. JP Morgan. My question is around dealer inventories, I know you said you're at the low end of month of supplier based on historical metrics, but historical metrics may not be the right way to look at dealer inventories for Caterpillar because in prior cycles dealers double ordered and order just in case and then we will head the lane strategy, etc, etc. So Jim how do you reassure investors that this cycle is different that your dealers are not double ordering or ordering ahead of price increases or ordering because just in case?
Jim Umpleby:
Yes. We've worked very hard over the last couple of years on getting more lean internally and also have looked at our supply chain. Obviously our dealers are independent businesses, so they make their own decisions as to what they do but we do feel based on the strength of the markets that we don't have an issue in terms of dealer inventory. I'll let Andrew jump in here as well.
Andrew Bonfield:
Yes. And just like give you a comment I mean I'm actually really impressed by the amount of data that the company actually does have on dealer inventory. You may want to go back to look at my background of Bristol-Myers and why I would be very focused on that because that was a wholesalers in that particular point in time, but I do think a) first of all the visibility is important. Actually in absolute dollar terms they look relatively low versus other parts on the cycle and is something that is very well monitored. So I think as best as it can be but as Jim said because obviously the dealers are independent but it does give us confidence that there isn't any excess inventory built. In fact actually what's happened in the last three months is as we've rent our production effectively we are now getting into a situation where dealers actually have enough inventory that they are able to sell through. So that's an important part of what we've been doing.
Jim Umpleby:
What CI still ends on managed distribution that you're probably know and much of the CI increase restocking in China for example is off of very low levels. So again we feel comfortable in what we see.
Ann Duignan:
Good. That's helpful and then is there any color you could give us if we look at Europe and the Middle East how much of that region is Middle East and any changes that you're seeing due to political unrest in the Middle East that's currently going on? Is that anything we should be concerned about going into 2019?
Jim Umpleby:
At this stage, I mean the bit where we did see some impact in the Middle East area is really around Turkey and that was obviously they've had a fair amount of economic uncertainty. Elsewhere actually through the rest of Europe and most of the rest of the Middle East actually things were pretty much okay. So it's really, really been Turkey been the big driver of uncertainty around that region.
Ann Duignan:
Okay I'll pass it on in the interest of time. Thank you.
Jim Umpleby:
Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you our next question today is coming from Andrew Casey. Please announce your affiliation. Then pose your questions.
Andrew Casey:
Thanks a lot. Wells Fargo Securities. If I could go back to Ann's last question there and Amy did you see any moderation in any of the EU countries and then separately can you explain why you think that the weakness and it sounds like it may just be Turkey why do you think that will be contained?
Jim Umpleby:
Well, firstly I mean obviously Turkey has been obviously going through a fair amount of economic uncertainty, obviously with U.S. sanctions as well being applied that has had some impact on the broader economy in Turkey. I think will sort I hopefully seeing that moderate now as we move forward and hopefully start seeing Turkey recover. Around the rest of Europe if you look around the rest I mean UK sales were sort of flattish in the quarter as will be expected with uncertainties there but generally actually the rest of EAME actually work was pretty good and Europe was actually pretty strong as well.
Andrew Casey:
Okay. Thank you and then I just wanted to confirm something. So we've had several quarters where construction remains on managed distribution. Can you comment on whether the constraints you may be still encountering are part of Cat's internal suppliers or is it mainly external and really what I'm trying to get to is if there's any change in past comments about CapEx remaining beneath depreciation?
Jim Umpleby:
Andy there is no changes. So construction industries has plenty of bricks and mortar capacity to meet demand and the issue has been with suppliers and as I'm sure you know it isn't just Cat and our competitors but manufacturers in many different industries have struggled with just the general increase in economic activity and what that's driven in terms of demand. So, no it's not, it’s not internal and you shouldn't take anything away from a capital investment perspective based on that.
Andrew Casey:
Okay. Thank you very much.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question today is coming from David Raso. Please announce your affiliation and then pose your question.
David Raso:
Evercore ISI. Good morning. Basically I'm just trying to figure out the confident comments that you seem to be having about 2019 that you've made, [indiscernible] why we still have a dollar EPS range in the fourth quarter, just trying to understand. You obviously seem fairly comfortable in your production schedules moving forward. If I heard you correctly it seems like the fourth quarter sequential versus third quarter you would expect some normal seasonal patterns in your sales, like it's maybe first if you can confirm that because the dollar range in the fourth quarter, I appreciate the comment nothing's changed since our prior view so we just figure we maintain it but it does at least raise the question your confidence in ‘19 to leave a dollar range for the fourth quarter is interesting. So I guess first can you confirm that you expect normal sequential sales patterns third to fourth?
Jim Umpleby:
So David let me be as clear as I can be obviously yes we do expect normal seasonal sales sequential patterns in the fourth quarter. If you look at our margin structure for the year, year-to-date it's 16.6%. In the third quarter it was 16.6%. We expect margins to be broadly similar as well so that very much is, very much in line with where we've been expecting. I think on the range I think changing the range would have sent some [miss sort of] message about something had changed since July. We were very clear in our thought process that we actually just wanted to be very clear to you all and say nothing's changed. Expectations of outlook have not changed and so we just wanted to reflect that through the guidance. Yes, it is a wide range, yes but we expect nothing really much has changed since where we were in July. So narrowing it may have created some noise either at the bottom end or at the top end. So we just thought it'd be better to leave it as is and explain it on the call today.
David Raso:
No, I appreciate that I'm just trying to think of a launching pad into ‘19 because if your sales are up their normal 6% to 7% sequentially third or fourth and the margins are the same that means the fourth quarter EPS is above the third quarter and your guidance implies it's not. So I'm just trying to understand is that comfortable because the numbers don't fully back it up and you're just saying it's still within the range it might get to the high end of the range but you decided to keep it as a wide range?
Jim Umpleby:
Yes, I mean if you do the math says you've done it then you would see the quarters being up. I think that our view is the range is wide, yes we don't expect to be at the bottom end of the range. So I think that's based on what we're expecting we expect the normal sales pattern and operating margins to be broadly in line with where they've been all year.
David Raso:
And lastly on the price increases announced to start 2019, the impact of those can you help us a little bit I mean if there seem to be [they're not price] protected shipments. So I'm trying to get a sense of the price cost as we start 2019. Can you help us a little bit with that on the timing of the cost versus the timing the price as we start ‘19 for a run rate?
Jim Umpleby:
Yes. I mean I think we are obviously we did get quite a long lead time partly so that we can actually put it into effect. We expect a significant proportion. A majority of that portion to stick obviously into 2019 but obviously when we're doing as sort of initial guidance for next year we're taking to account that not all of that will be fully realized in the 2019 time frame. So will give you a bit more an updating a bit more color then and also don't forget we will have the full-year benefit of the mid-year price increase in 2019 as well.
David Raso:
Double stack to start the year? Okay. All right. Thank you very much. Appreciate it.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question today is coming from Jerry Revich. Please announce your affiliation and then pose your question.
Jerry Revich:
Good morning everyone. It's Goldman Sachs. Can you talk about the M&A pipeline and the relative attractiveness of M&A versus buyback to you folks at this point you mentioned stocks below the intrinsic value but how does that stack up versus your M&A options and as you folks look at the balance sheet today the cleanest has been in over 30 years, what do you think is the right level of leverage for this business longer term?
Jim Umpleby:
Yes. This is Jim. I will start it off and let Andrew jump in at the end if you would like but you mentioned M&A and buybacks well the other thing we can also do is invest in organic growth which we are very much doing. So all of our businesses continuously evaluate M&A opportunities. We're continuing to do that. We're not excluding anything. We are not saying that there's a definitive plan for a big M&A either. We are very focused on organic growth particularly in areas of services in digital. We're increasing our capability there and now I will let Andrew take the buyback question.
Andrew Bonfield:
Yes. Jerry on the sort of what's the right level of leverage on some [weeks], so I think if you would excuse me to start betting that out for a little bit longer because actually it's one of the things I want to work through and work through how do we think about this through the cycle which is what we do have to do. We do want to maintain the mid-year rating through the cycle. So we have to think through that how that capital allocation works. Obviously at the moment we do have more cash than we inherently need so therefore we are as we've seen accelerating the buyback program and that is obviously the key at the moment.
Jerry Revich:
Okay. Thank you and you, folks give us color on new dealer inventories of new equipment. Can you just talk about what you're seeing on the use equipment side I guess we're seeing used inventories inching up in North America construction equipment. Are you seeing that as well? Can you just talk about your comfort level on the use side?
Amy Campbell:
Yes Jerry I think if you look at used equipment the inventories are quite tight and we're seeing increases and used equipment prices continue.
Jerry Revich:
Any color by region Amy?
Amy Campbell:
I don't have any specific color by region. It's certainly the case in North America where I have most of that data.
Jerry Revich:
Okay. Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question today is coming from Stephen Volkmann. Please announce your affiliation and then pose your question.
Stephen Volkmann:
Hi, good morning. It's Jefferies. Thanks for taking my question. Just a couple quick follow-ups. Just back to the resource if we actually do sell more equipment next year than parts can you still have up margin?
Jim Umpleby:
Yes. I'm not sure we said we'd sell more equipment than part. I think what we said is that term on mining the resource industries correct.
Stephen Volkmann:
Yes. Thank you. That's the question.
Jim Umpleby:
Yes. So both are improving. So our parts sales are increasing as our opportunities for our new equipment as well. So I'm not going to make a -- we're leveraging obviously leveraging period cost where we're seeing higher volume and that's a good thing. So I'm not going to make any comment on margins new versus parts.
Stephen Volkmann:
Okay. Fair enough. Thank you and then just a couple quick ones on tariffs I know you've been managing that quite well so far. What happens when and if it looks like more than if sorry when the tariffs go to 25% on the section 301. What type of impact would that have and then are you either doing or seeing from your customers any kind of pre-buy activity around that whole issue?
Jim Umpleby:
So we previously stated that our – we would in the last six months of the year we have cost headwinds of $100 million to $200 million we're going to be at the lower end of that range we believe. We haven't seen a big pre-buy but of course we're in a situation where we've had some constraints and so we've been on managed distribution. So we don't expect a major impact as quite frankly we were already hit with the earlier tariffs so we don't think a later change will have an impact on us. It was already baked in for us.
Stephen Volkmann:
And are you buying any parts ahead of changes in pricing?
Jim Umpleby:
Well, again we're in a situation where as we talked earlier there's a supply constraint challenge not only for Caterpillar, our competitors but for many other manufacturers as well. So I don't think anyone has honestly has the luxury of making a lot of big pre-buys. So no.
Stephen Volkmann:
Understood. Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question today is coming from Rob Wertheimer. Please announce your affiliation then pose your question.
Rob Wertheimer:
Thanks. It's Melius Research. And thank you for the prior answer, if I could just get a little bit more specific on it, I mean obviously tariffs are remaining big uncertainty for the market and estimates. Is it what you just said is that meant to suggest that if there is 25% on the additional $200 billion of goods tariffs that that would be at or smaller than the impact you've had this year? We just sort can't see all the different things you and your suppliers buy. So obviously you've got a lot more information on quantifying that than we do.
Jim Umpleby:
Yes. The impact would be quite minor in the bigger scheme of things for Cat's results.
Rob Wertheimer:
Okay. Perfect. Are you doing any materials for the production mitigation where you produce more in Brazil or elsewhere to offset that or is it just straight minor on a gross basis like the stuff that's tariffs isn't as large in the second round for you?
Jim Umpleby:
Yes, we're not making a lot of production shifts. I mean our teams obviously continuously monitor the situation and it can with politics to get together the situation can change dramatically day to day. So we – we have not made production shift decisions based on this.
Rob Wertheimer:
Great. Thank you.
Jim Umpleby:
But just expand upon that we have a global footprint, so we have the luxury of unlike some other companies, we manufacture products in Asia, in the Americas, in EAME so that does help us mitigate this somewhat because we do have a global manufacturing base.
Rob Wertheimer:
Perfect. Thank you.
Jim Umpleby:
Okay.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question today is coming from Sameer Rathod, please announce your affiliation and then pose your question.
Sameer Rathod:
Macquarie Research. Thank you for taking my question. Just one quick question on labor cost. It seems like there's growing political pressure for $15 per hour and we've seen some response to that already. Can you quantify how much of an impact if any it would be a cost in terms of Cat, if Cat paid at least $15 an hour to its manufacturing staff? Thank you.
Jim Umpleby:
Yes. For the most part it's not going to have an impact on us and we are above $15 in the vast majority of places are only in the U.S. so I don't see an impact on us.
Sameer Rathod:
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question today is coming from Joel Tiss. Please announce your affiliation and then pose your question.
Joel Tiss:
Hi, Bank of Montreal and so just two quick ones. You guys are running now near the top end of your investor day margins and I just wondered if there's more kind of like leaning toward raising those targets or are we kind of passing the maximum point of the internal efficiencies and you're more comfortable just leaving them in place?
Jim Umpleby:
So as we as we talked about we're focused on growing our business as well, so while our teams are continuously focused on making our operations more efficient, we're also investing for growth. So it's – there's always a balance there between those margins and growth but we're pleased that we are ahead of where we said we would be from a time perspective and our team has a laser focus on those margins but again there's a balance between investing for growth. We just don't want to continue to bring out higher margins every year at the expense of growth. However, right if we can both grow and have higher margins then that's fine as well. So again it's a balance.
Joel Tiss:
Okay.
Jim Umpleby:
Volumes, sorry so one comment I mean if certainly if volumes go up, obviously that gives us an opportunity to have higher margins because we're leveraging that overhead across the higher volume. So that opportunity certainly exists.
Joel Tiss:
And then Andrew there there's always been kind of this historic inside a Cat a push and pull between growing market share and having more pins in the map and profitability and I just wondered based on your experience and history and all that if you what would be your initial input into that debate?
Andrew Bonfield:
Yes. I think let me just say the history is littered and of companies who have either gone for market share the expensive margins and/or then gone for margins at the expense of market share, ultimately at the end of the day we want to do both and it's all about trying to do profitable growth. I think that is really one of the reasons why I joined, I love the term profitable growth and the fact that it does mean that you actually have to do focus not just on growth and profits but actually sustainable long term profitable growth. So ultimately at the end of the day you want to do both is the simple answer.
Joel Tiss:
Okay, I appreciate you guys squeezing me in thank you.
Amy Campbell:
And Kate we have time for one more question.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question today is coming from Chad Dillard. Please announce your affiliation then pose your question.
Chad Dillard:
Good morning everyone from Deutsche Bank. So I just want to go back to the $800 million increase in dealer inventory. Can you give a little bit more detail by [segments] region where the entries came from and then where do you expect that to exit 2018?
Jim Umpleby:
Yes. I mean I'm not going to break down 800 million for you by region but as we said one of the biggest areas where it was in China and as a result of the selling season second quarter there was a very strong pull in in China. Overall across all the segments we are comfortable that we still remain at the low end of the range and then obviously as with the production ramp ups we are starting to get to a situation where dealers have adequate inventory on hand. So again I think rather than get into the sort of then having to give you an update exactly where the inventory is, the inventory is across all the segments. It was build across all segments in the quarter but generally we are comfortable with where we've ended.
Chad Dillard:
That's helpful and then just switching over to the price you mentioned a 1% to 4% increase, I mean 2019, how does it break down across your various segments and then also the thing that jumped out at me was a 4% price increase in resource industries and I was just curious whether it's more like a mix issue or are you actually getting price on apples to apples basis and if so it has a market tight enough so that that's sustainable?
Jim Umpleby:
Yes. So at this again the price realization in RI is a lot due to mix and versus a prior year with regards to the 1% to 4% we're not going to break it down by segments but basically it depends geographically and it depends on business segment as to what the price increases were put through.
Chad Dillard:
Great. Thank you very much.
Amy Campbell:
Kate, that's going to be our last question. Jim do you have a couple of wrap-up comments.
Jim Umpleby:
We just thanks everyone for your time this morning. I just wanted to end by saying I'm very, very proud of the Caterpillar global team for a record profit per share for the third consecutive quarter and we continue to deliver record quarterly profits even while many of our end markets are still in their early stages of recovery. We'll continue a relentless execution of our strategy, supporting our customer success, very focused on profitable growth and total shareholder return. Look forward to speaking to all next quarter. Thank you.
Amy Campbell:
Thank you Jim.
Operator:
Thank you ladies and gentlemen. This does conclude today's conference call. You may disconnect your phone lines at this time and have a wonderful day. Thank you for your participation.
Executives:
Amy Campbell - Director, IR Jim Umpleby - CEO Joe Creed - Interim CFO
Analysts:
Andrew Casey - Wells Fargo Securities Joe O’Dea - Vertical Research Stephen Volkmann - Jefferies Ann Duignan - JP Morgan David Raso - Evercore ISI Joel Tiss - BMO Jamie Cook - Credit Suisse Rob Wertheimer - Melius Research Mike Shlisky - Seaport Global Jerry Revich - Goldman Sachs
Operator:
Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Caterpillar 2Q Earnings Results Conference Call. At this time, all participants have been placed on a listen-only mode, and we will open the floor for your questions and comments after the presentation. It is now my pleasure to turn the floor over to your host, Amy Campbell. Ma’am, the floor is yours.
Amy Campbell:
Thank you, Kate. Good morning. And welcome everyone to our second quarter earnings call. My name is Amy Campbell, Director of Investor Relations for Caterpillar. On the call today, I am pleased to have our CEO, Jim Umpleby; and our Interim CFO, Joe Creed. Remember, this call is copyrighted by Caterpillar, Inc., and any use, recording or transmission of any portion of the call without the expressed written consent of Caterpillar is strictly prohibited. If you’d like a copy of today’s call transcript, we’ll be posting it in the Investors section of our caterpillar.com website. It will be in the section labeled, Results Webcast. Also, as a reminder, this morning, we will be discussing forward-looking information that involves risks, uncertainties and assumptions that could cause our actual results to differ materially from the forward-looking information. A discussion of factors that either individually or in the aggregate could make actual results differ materially from our projections can be found in items 1A risk factors, and the 2017 Form 10-K filed with the SEC and in our forward-looking statements included in today’s financial release. In addition, a reconciliation of non-GAAP measures can be found in the appendix of this morning’s presentation and our release which is posted at caterpillar.com/earnings. We’re going to start the call this morning with a few words from Jim; Joe will walk us through a detailed overview of results and our revised outlook; and then, we will turn it back to Kate to begin the Q&A portion of the call. Jim?
Jim Umpleby:
Thank you, Amy. Good morning, everyone, and thanks for joining us. We had another great quarter with outstanding performance by our global team. Second quarter sales and revenues were $14 billion, 24% higher than the second quarter of 2017. We saw increased sales in all three of our primary segments and in all geographic regions. Profit per share of $2.82 was the best second quarter performance in our company history. Operating and profit increased 83% and adjusted profit per share was nearly double what it was in the same quarter last year. For those of you that have followed us through the cycles, you can recognize that our team did an excellent job managing costs, as we significantly increased production, which allowed us to deliver record quarterly profit per share. We are a higher performing company today as a result of our team’s cost discipline, the application of the Operating & Execution Model and restructuring actions we’ve implemented across the Company in recent years. As the numbers show, we are delivering on the commitments made at our Investor Day, last September. We ended the quarter with $8.7 billion cash on hand and demonstrated our commitment to consistently return capital to shareholders in a disciplined way by increasing the quarterly cash dividend by 10% per share and repurchasing $750 million of the Company’s common stock. We have repurchased $1.25 billion of stock since the first of the year. Sustainable dividend growth and returning capital to shareholders remain high priorities for us. Now, to our outlook. We’ve had a great start to the year and there’s continued improvement in many of our end markets. So, we’re raising our profit per share outlook for the full-year. We feel good about the state of our business. Most of our markets continue to improve in the second quarter. Our order rates and the backlog remain strong. For certain applications, particularly in oil & gas and mining, we are taking orders for delivery well into 2019. We’re very focused on the products, services and innovation which will fuel future growth. We intend to continue investing in the expanded offerings and services that are core components of our strategy. Digital initiatives like e-commerce connecting assets and autonomous machines as well as new engine technologies and machine programs. Here are a few examples to showcase what we’re accomplishing. For expanded offerings, we have introduced the 20-ton class of next-generation excavators which offer unique combinations of purpose-built features designed to match customers’ productivity and cost targets. The services component of our strategy has multiple initiatives, and we continue to invest in our digital capabilities. We have about 700,000 connected assets, roughly 30% more than the number of assets we cited at Investor Day. We have the largest number of autonomous machines in the mining industry, and these autonomous solutions have helped customers experience 20% productivity improvement over best-in-class mine sites. As part of an ongoing pilot, a large customer recently moved the first payload using the fully autonomous CAT 400-ton haul truck in the oil sands. This is the largest autonomous truck ever put into a productive operating environment. As part of our services strategy, we’ve increased the number of products sold with customer support agreements. We’ve also made two acquisitions in early 2018 to increase our service capabilities for our rail customers. We continue to make strategic investments in engine technologies such as advanced engine controls, high-performance air and fuel systems and new material compositions in our pursuit of improved power density, efficiency and emissions. On the issue of trade, we urge government leaders to take actions to remove uncertainty. As a global manufacturer, Caterpillar has long advocated for free trade because it enhances global competitiveness and helps U.S. manufacturers grow U.S. jobs and exports. Based on the current situation, we’ve assumed incremental tariff-related costs of $100 million to $200 million for the rest of the year. Even with these new costs, we are raising our 2018 outlook. We are confident that our strategy positions us to capitalize on current market opportunities and manage through dynamic environments. In summary, this was a great all-round quarter for sales growth, operational performance and capital deployment. We delivered record second quarter profit per share and raised the full-year outlook. Our financial position is strong. We feel good about our markets and will remain focused on structural cost control while investing for profitable growth. These results continue to give us confidence that our strategy with the core components of operational excellence, expanded offerings and services framed by the fundamental discipline of the Operating & Execution Model is delivering value for our customers and our shareholders. With that, I’ll turn it over to Joe.
Joe Creed:
All right. Thanks, Jim, and good morning, everyone. Let’s start with a brief overview of the headline numbers on slide four. As Jim mentioned, the team performed extremely well in the second quarter. Sales and revenues for the second quarter increased to $14 billion, 24% higher than the second quarter of 2017, as we continue to ramp production to meet higher demand. Our end markets remain strong, most notably North America and China construction, as well as North American onshore oil and gas. Mining sales, while still in the early stages of recovery, were also up, as we are seeing increased orders and deliveries for new equipment in addition to aftermarket parts. Once again, profit per share of $2.82 was the best second quarter performance in our company history. Adjusted profit per share of $2.97 was about double last year, driven primarily by the higher sales volume and continued cost discipline. We have a strong balance sheet and ended the quarter with $8.7 billion of enterprise cash. ME&T operating cash flow was $2.1 billion in the quarter. Also, we have demonstrated our commitment to return capital to shareholders by increasing the quarterly dividend by 10% per share and repurchasing $750 million of the Company’s common stock. As the numbers reflect, this was a great quarter for sales growth, operational performance and capital deployment. These results continue to give us confidence in our strategy for using the operating execution model to drive profitable growth through operational excellence as well as expanded offerings and services for our customers. Now, turn to slide five and we’ll discuss operating profit. Operating profit in the second quarter was almost $2.2 billion, an increase of 83% compared to the second quarter of last year. Adjusted operating margin for the quarter was 16.3% on the high-end of our Investor Day range, and 440 basis points higher than the second quarter of 2017. While we expect operating margins to fluctuate from quarter-to-quarter, the second quarter represents an impressive improvement and demonstrates the operating leverage, we have across the Company due to our restructuring efforts and ongoing cost discipline. Again, I want to thank our global team for their commitment to operational excellence, which can clearly be seen in this quarter’s results. As you see in the chart, higher sales volume across all three of our primary segments contributed an additional $1 billion of operating profit, compared to the same quarter last year. Price realization was about $90 million in the second quarter, more than offsetting higher manufacturing costs. Let’s expand on manufacturing costs for a minute. They increased roughly $80 million compared to last year as higher freight and material costs were partially offset by lower warranty expense. In the quarter, higher freight costs drove the largest increase to manufacturing costs. That’s a result of several factors, including higher freight rates due to strain capacity in the trucking industry, less efficient freight loads and expedited freight as we continue to ramp production to meet increased demand. Material costs were up about 1%, driven largely by higher steel costs, an increase we anticipated because of higher commodity prices. Freight costs remained well-controlled in the quarter, up less than 3% compared to last year, even with 24% higher sales and revenues. And finally, financial products was unfavorable $56 million. However, the core business is performing well. Higher past-dues and increased write-offs this quarter were primarily limited to a few customers in Cat Power and a review of the recent collection experience of our Latin America portfolio. Now, let’s take a look at the performance of each segment, beginning with Construction Industries on slide six. Sales for Construction Industries were $6.2 billion in the second quarter, an increase of $1.2 billion or 24% from 2017. CI sales increased across all regions with the strongest performance in Asia Pacific and North America. Asia Pacific sales were up 43% or about $500 million, driven primarily by China. We are seeing continued investment in building construction and infrastructure. Sales of excavators in China remained strong in the second quarter with industry sales for the 10-ton and above excavator up more than 70% year-to-date. North America also continued to be a bright spot for CI in the quarter with sales up about $400 million or 18%. Much of the sales increase was driven by investment in non-residential construction and oil & gas-related projects, including pipeline. Segment profit increased 28% over the last year to $1.2 billion, which is a record for CI. And operating margin in the quarter was 18.7%, exceeding the Investor Day range. Higher sales volume was the primary driver of the profit improvement. This was partially offset by unfavorable price realization and higher cost for material, freight, as well as SG&A and R&D. Pricing was competitive in the second quarter, especially in some of our key regions for CI. However, we did announce a mid-year price increase for machines that took effect on July 1st. Now, let’s move on to slide seven. The Resource Industries team turned in a second quarter. Sales for RI were $2.5 billion in the quarter, up 38% from year ago. In addition to ongoing aftermarket parts demand to support machine activity and rebuild, sales for new equipment increased across all regions. Our mining customers are placing orders on new equipment as commodity prices remain above investment thresholds. However, we believe mining customers have yet to begin full scale fleet replacement. In addition, global economic growth and infrastructure investment contributed to higher sales of heavy construction equipment. Segment profit of $411 million was more than four times higher than the second quarter of 2017 and segment margin improved to 16.3%, which surpasses the Investor Day range of 12% to 16%. RI’s improved performance and margin expansion is primarily due to operating leverage gained through significant restructuring and the team’s disciplined cost management. In fact, RI period costs were about flat with 38% higher sales. Now, let’s turn to slide eight, and we will discuss Energy & Transportation. E&T sales in the second quarter were $5.7 million, 20% higher than the same quarter last year with sales increasing across all applications. Sales in the oil and gas applications were up $400 million or 39%, as we continue to see strength in onshore activities in North America, especially for gas compression and well servicing applications. For power generation, sales increased 13%, driven primarily by sales of gas powered applications in EAME. Our industrial application sales increased 10%, largely driven by improving global economic conditions and higher end user demand across most applications. And finally, transportation, sales were up 14%, driven by our two recent acquisitions in rail services, one in Europe and one in Australia along with increased rail traffic in North America. Marine was also up slightly due to higher sales into the cruise sector. Segment profit for Energy & Transportation was just over $1 billion, up about $300 million from last year. The segment margin improved over 300 basis points to 17.7%, which is at the high end of the Investor Day range. E&T’s profit improvement was mostly due to higher sales volume, favorable price realization and lower short-term incentive compensation expense. This was partially offset by higher freight costs. Before I move to the outlook, I want to spend a moment talking about capital deployment on slide nine. As I mentioned earlier, our ME&T operating cash flow was $2.1 billion in the second quarter and we finished the quarter with $8.7 billion of enterprise cash on hand. While we’re committed to investing to profitably grow our business, we also have the benefit of strong operating cash flow and a solid balance sheet, which provide the flexibility to continue returning capital to shareholders. We intend to do this in a disciplined way by focusing on sustainable dividend growth and being in the market for share repurchases on a fairly consistent basis. In line with this strategy, we increased our quarterly dividend by 10% per share and repurchased $750 million of common stock in the second quarter, bringing our year-to-date total repurchases to $1.25 billion. We expect share repurchases in the second half of the year to be in a range similar to the first half, but we could be more opportunistic, depending on market conditions and investing priorities. Our current share repurchases authorization expires at the end of this year. To ensure continuity of our cash deployment priorities, the Board of Directors approved a new $10 billion share repurchase authorization, which is effective January 1, 2019 with no exploration date. Again, the team delivered an outstanding second quarter. Now, let’s turn to slide 10 and look at the details of our updated outlook. As we said in our release this morning, based on our strong year-to-date performance and our current view of our end markets, we are raising our full-year profit per share outlook to a range of $10.50 to $11.50. Excluding restructuring costs of about $400 million, we now expect adjusted profit per share to be in a range of $11 to $12. I’ll share some perspective on our various end markets in more detail on the next slide but first let’s talk about a few items that are included in this outlook. We feel good about the state of our business. Most of our end markets continued to improve in the second quarter. Order rates and the backlog remained strong. For certain applications, particularly in oil & gas and mining, we continue taking orders for delivery well into 2019. Recently imposed tariffs had minimal impact on the quarter but are expected to impact our second half material costs by approximately $100 million to $200 million. We also expect freight costs to remain elevated as we ramp production to meet higher demand. However, we intend to offset most of these headwinds through mid-year price increases and continued use of the Operating & Execution Model to drive operational excellence and structural cost discipline. We will also continue to invest in our future, focusing our investments on expanded offerings and services. In addition to new machine and engine programs, we are also investing in digital technologies that are expanding the services and the solutions we offer our customers. Now, let’s take a look at our end markets in a little more detail on slide 11. The slide reflects our current view of the end markets we serve. As you can see, our end markets are at various stages. Some are experiencing strong demand, some are in the early stages of recovery and some remain challenged compared to historical levels. For Construction Industries, we are experiencing strong product demand in Asia Pacific, North America, and EAME while sales in Latin America are still depressed. Given the strong selling season, our backlog is down slightly compared to the first quarter. This reflects normal seasonal patterns for CI, and our order rates remain healthy. As you know, North American retail stats just turned positive in May of last year after 24 consecutive months of decline. We believe demand will continue to be strong with investments in nonresidential construction and oil & gas related projects, including pipeline. For Resource Industries, robust economic growth and infrastructure investments are driving strong demand in heavy construction applications. However, for global mining customers, we believe this recovery is still in the early stages. What started a strong demand for aftermarket parts and rebuild has recently progressed to increased demand for new equipment. Commodity prices continue to be above investment threshold, which is improving the financial health of many mining customers. We are working hard to continue to increase production with our suppliers and at our facilities. In the second quarter, our production and shipping activity kept pace with the increase in order rate, and as a result, the backlog for RI remained flat. Energy & Transportation is our most diverse segment and serves a wide variety of end markets. Sales in the North America gas compression and well servicing applications remained very strong. The Permian basin contains the most drill rigs and uncompleted wells in the U.S. and we expect growth in the region to continue. We are also continuing to see increased activity across other shale basins in the U.S. as recent market conditions have enabled them to be profitable. While gas compression and well servicing demand is strong in North America, we continue to see weak demand for new equipment for on and offshore drilling as well as offshore oil and gas production. Power generation is experiencing a demand increase, following the multiyear downturn in sales. The improvement is driven mostly by demand for powering datacenters and gas powered applications in EAME. While sales are expected to be up in 2018, we believe this year will still be well below our recent high in 2012. Sales for industrial applications are strong, largely due to improving global economic conditions and higher end-user demand across most applications. The North American rail market is showing signs of recovery. Total carloads improved and stored locomotives were down for the second quarter. While we have received orders for new locomotives, the demand is low compared to historic levels. We have however seen a significant increase for rail services and locomotive rebuild. For marine sales, we’re seeing improvements for cruise and tugboats but the marine market continues to be challenged, especially for workboats supporting offshore oil platforms. In summary, we feel good about our end markets, many of which continue to be strong, while others are recovering. And we are confident our corporate strategy positions us well to manage through this dynamic environment. Now, I’d like to give a quick update on the execution of our strategy on slide 12. Recall, at Investor Day last September, we provided target operating margin ranges for all three segments and for the Company. Those ranges reflected our expectations for significantly improved performance at achievable sales levels that we had seen in the past. Slide 12 shows our consolidated sales and revenues and adjusted operating margin history back to 2012, which was our peak for sales and revenues. The column on the far right reflects our consolidated Investor Day range operating margin range of 14% to 17%, at sales levels of about $55 billion. As the numbers show, we are delivering on our commitment. The last 12 months of sales and revenues dating back to July of 2017 were just over $51 billion with an adjusted operating margin of 15% that’s more than 100 basis points higher than our 2012 performance, which was achieved on sales and revenues of almost $66 billion. Like Jim said, running the business, using the operating execution model, coupled with restructuring actions have made us the higher performing company. We are committed to delivering stronger performance throughout the cycle. We are relentless in control of our structural costs as evidenced by our results, but these results aren’t all about cost control. The real power of the Operating & Execution Model comes from focusing resources on growing our most profitable businesses to maximize returns, like investments in the next-gen excavator, autonomous technologies, connecting assets and expanding our ecommerce platform to name a few. This demonstrated performance along with our current view of key end markets gives us the confidence to raise our full year outlook for 2018. Now, let’s turn to slide 13, and I’ll conclude with a quick summary. We are delivering on our commitments and our strategy is working. We delivered record second-quarter profit per share, raised the full-year outlook, and are returning capital to shareholders. We’re confident in our end markets and will remain focused on structural cost control while investing for profitable growth. With that, I’ll turn it back to Amy to begin the Q&A portion of the call.
Amy Campbell:
Thank you, Joe. Kate, we’re ready for the first question.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] Our first question today is coming from Andrew Casey. Please announce your affiliation, then pose your question.
Andrew Casey:
Wells Fargo Securities. Good morning, everybody. Couple questions on margins. First, does the updated guidance still incorporate an expectation that Q1 performance would be the best of the year? And then, second, looking at slide 12, I’m just wondering how to put everything in context. Given your growth initiatives and how quickly the segment margin performance has either exceeded or gone toward the top end of Investor Day ranges, I am just wondering should we expect further upside to margin performance, even with how good it’s been so far?
Jim Umpleby:
Andy, this is Jim. I will address the second part of your question first. So, as you indicated, we gave the expected operating margin targets for known, achievable sales levels in the recent past. We -- obviously, if in fact, sales are higher in each of those segments, it’s not unreasonable to expect higher margin percentages. However, we also want to grow our business, as we talked about at Investor Day. So, if we’re at the top end of one of those ranges and we have the opportunity to increase sales significantly and hope there is specific opportunity, discrete opportunity that allows us to increase sales but keeps that margin percentage at the end top of that range, that’s something we will do. However, obviously, higher sales, one should expect, in general, higher operating margin percentages.
Joe Creed:
This is Joe. From quarter-to-quarter, I would expect, those operating margin ranges could bounce around a little bit, but I don’t think we would expect any -- second half to be significantly different than what we’ve seen through the first half of this year.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question today is coming from Joe O’Dea. Please announce your affiliation and then pose your question.
Joe O’Dea:
Hi. Good morning. It’s Vertical Research. On tariffs and trade, just in terms of backward looking on the quarter, really doesn’t seem like much of a disruption. As you think about just the customer interactions over the course of the quarter though, and in particular related to China, anything that you seeing relative to your direct exposure with China on utilization levels of equipment over the course of the past couple months, anything on the demand side with excavators? And then, when we think about the indirect exposure, and I guess, in particular as it relate to mining and anything there where you would see a little bit increased customer unease on mining, just as it relates to some of the headlines around trade?
Jim Umpleby:
Joe, it’s Jim. To answer the first part of your question. Our business in China continues to be strong. We haven’t seen an impact of the trade tension on our business, as we mentioned in our prepared remarks. We feel good about our business and our markets continue to look quite good. We also haven’t seen a negative impact from mining either. Obviously, as one looks at global economic conditions and global economic growth, there is a whole variety of factors that feed into what the global economies will be. But as we stand here today, we feel good about our markets and our demand remains strong.
Joe O’Dea:
Got it. And then, just on construction pricing, and the midyear increases. Is that something that we start to see in 3Q or just given the backlog, does that take a little bit of time to actually show up in the results that we will see?
Amy Campbell:
No. I’m glad you asked, Joe. So, I think you are right on there. Given the backlog and the time it takes for that midyear price action to work through, we would expect some lag. So, we would expect to start to see the favorability for the midyear price increase in Construction Industries to be little later in the year, maybe towards the end of the third quarter into the fourth quarter.
Operator:
Our next question today is coming from Stephen Volkmann. Please announce your affiliation, then pose your question.
Stephen Volkmann:
It’s Jefferies. So, I’m wondering Jim, maybe we can go back quickly to something you said I think in response to Andy’s question. Do you have a big backlog or pipeline of things that you would like to fund with respect to growth initiatives that may start to come in at a faster pace going forward?
Jim Umpleby:
We are continually evaluating opportunities for investment to fuel future growth. We have talked about what we’re doing in our services. Obviously it’s a big area of focus for us. And we are investing in our digital capabilities. But we do have a list of things we’d like to invest in. We feel comfortable in our ability to do that while continuing to maintain our performance. I mean, there is a whole list of things we could talk about. I think, you’ve read some of our press releases about what we were doing with autonomous vehicles, site solutions, power density, engine emissions. So, yes, we do have a list of things as we always do of items that we are investing in. But again, we are committed to do this in the environment of continuing to perform as a company, financially.
Stephen Volkmann:
And then, if I could just focus for one second on slide 11 where you talked about end market assumptions. It looks like one way you could kind of read that as things that are sort of below normal, things that are kind of in line with normal, and things that are stronger than normal. And first of all, if you would like to dissuade me from that interpretation, feel free. But, I’m curious how you think of the overall business with respect to their various cycles? Clearly, the market is worried about where the industrial cycle is and where the things may be kind of mid-cycle or above. And I’m curious if you have an opinion as to sort of where we are overall with CAT cycles?
Jim Umpleby:
It is important to keep in mind that Caterpillar is a diverse business. I think a lot of time they look at our business, they will just think of construction, and that’s why we took the time to go through that slide and Joe went through that with you. So, again, Joe laid it out pretty well on this in the slide. There are certain parts of our business that are certainly below what we would consider a normal range, some that -- and have not started to recover. We have some that are still below what we consider normal demand in our recovery; and then we have some that are very strong and we try to lay that out in our slide.
Amy Campbell:
I think to further add on to that, those end markets that are in the far right hand column there of strong demand, I mean, if you look at EAME, while we consider it strong and it’s been growing for this last several years, it’s actually still a little below sales levels that we achieved earlier this decade and well below sales levels a decade ago kind of in the middle of the last decade. So, we are seeing consistent growth in the EAME but it’s not above where we were earlier 5, 6 years ago. Say the same thing about industrial. We also see good healthy growth but those sales levels continue to be a little below some highs achieved a few years ago and really the same thing for Resource Industries. So, we look at North America as very strong that’s after several years of below trend sales. We’ve also talked about China also being a very strong region, but we still see -- if we look specifically at the 10-ton and above excavator, we expect sales for that product and the industry to be below the peak that it achieved in 2011. So, it’s a little bit difficult to put these on an exact equilibrium. I think, what we wanted to be very clear about is that the markets are in different phases of the cycle. But, there still is opportunity for growth really probably across most of them.
Joe Creed:
And this is Joe. Just exactly what you said, Amy, I agree, it wasn’t intended. You can’t take the far right column and say everything in there is above mid-cycle. That wasn’t the intent. It was just the intent to say we’re getting strong demand on those products, and where we’re seeing demand and that we are diverse and then we have industries that are in various stages of recovery at the moment.
Jim Umpleby:
And one of the things we’re pleased with is our record financial performance, even though we have a number of key markets that are quite weak. Offshore oil & gas is when we talked about this is quite weak, new locomotives is weak, mining improving but it’s still well below what we consider a normal levels. So, again, the fact that we’re trending a record performance with those key markets, where they are we feel good about.
Operator:
Our next question today is coming from Ann Duignan. Please announce your affiliation, then pose your question.
Ann Duignan:
Good morning. JP Morgan. I’ve got a quick clarification question and then my real question. So, the clarification question is just on your revised guidance, what’s embedded in that for share repurchases because originally you did not have any share repurchases in your guidance. So, if you could just tell us, is it the first half that’s done and over or have you embedded any share repurchases into the back half?
Amy Campbell:
You are correct, Ann. We typically have not forecasted share repurchase and our -- the guide that we put out there, the adjusted profit per share of $11 to $12, we have assumed, as Joe said that we would be fairly consistent in the second half with share repurchases as we were in the first half. And so, it can be 1.25 in the first half, call it 2 to 2.5 in the second half or 2.5 I guess would be. [Multiple Speakers]
Joe Creed:
2.5ish, in that range, for the full year.
Amy Campbell:
I will say Ann, I’m going to step back. I mean, that is a broad range. And so, we have played that in, but there is no a number of variables we’ve got played into that range of $11 to $12 of adjusted profit per share.
Ann Duignan:
Okay. And then, I appreciate the clarification. My question then is turning to China and your outlook for excavator sales. You had guided plus 30% and you had called that the cycle was above normal this year and that’s how you were being cautious. Now we’re up 70% year-to-date. What’s your recent thinking on excavator sales in China going forward, particularly in light of some of the policy easing that the government is doing to help support PPPs and things like that? What’s your latest thoughts on the markets there?
Amy Campbell:
Yes. So, for China in the first quarter, we talked about the 10-ton and above excavator demand for the industry being up about 30%. We now have that forecast up about 40%. So, we’ve raised that expectation for the rest of the year. That industry class is up 70% year-to-date. So, that does imply that there will be slowing growth in the back half of the year. If you recall, the back half of 2017 saw some pretty significant growth levels. And so, the comps gets to be quite difficult. We do expect this year for China sales to have more normal seasonal pattern. So, while in the second half of last year, China sales were higher than the first half, that’s a bit unusual, we expect more of the 60-40, 60% of sales in the first half of the year, 40% in the back half of the year, Ann.
Ann Duignan:
And your thoughts on the ongoing -- just based on what you’re seeing infrastructure wise in China?
Amy Campbell:
Yes. They continue to be active. We continue to feel good about our end markets. We do have some dealer inventory to grow in China. I think, we continue to keep an eye on what’s the pretty dynamic environment.
Operator:
Our next question today is coming from David Raso. Please announce your affiliation, then pose your question.
David Raso:
Evercore ISI. Thank you. Back to slide 11 on the end market outlook. And I know you feel very confidently about the categories that are in the strong demand area, which is all well and good. But, if you could maybe bless these numbers, I’m just curious. Even the businesses that are in the strong demand area, I’m coming up with at most 45% to 50% of revenues and probably a little bit lower than that on operating profit, call 40 to 45 on a normalized basis. So, I’m just trying understand, is that the right way to look at it? Yes. The strong demand businesses are areas that you still feel good about and they can grow. But even without that, you have the first two categories in the left that are the majority of sales and earnings. Is that a fair way to assume how we are supposed to read that breakdown? I know, you don’t give all those businesses exactly by sales and revenues, but obviously I try to take a stab at it. Can you help with that question and sanity check that thought.
Amy Campbell:
Yes.
Joe Creed:
This is Joe. I would say -- I don’t have those figures in front of me and we don’t normally disclose in that way. And keep in mind, they’ll vary depending on where these businesses move around on this chart right. But, I think you’re thinking about it in a correct way. Our point is, as Jim mentioned earlier, if you think about record performance that we’re turning in from how we’re operating and running the company and we feel good about that relative to a significant portion of our business is but still recovering or early stages of recovery or still operating at pretty low level. So, we feel like not all of our markets are synchronized at this point and that’s not necessarily a bad thing.
David Raso:
Again, just to make sure. So, the majority of your sales and EBIT are in those first two categories called slow to recover and recovering, and less than 50% of strong demand. I know you’re saying those can grow beyond but just making sure we roughly frame it, is that a fair generalization?
Joe Creed:
Yes. I don’t know, Amy, if you have that. I wouldn’t frame it that way. But...
Jim Umpleby:
Yes. David, I don’t have those numbers in front of me. So, I would be hesitant to frame it that way. I mean, I think we could go back and look at that. It should be relatively easy to calculate. But, sitting here, while you’re talking I just -- I don’t have that number in front of me. So, I’m cautious to confirm it. It doesn’t…
David Raso:
That’s fine. We can go into detail offline. And lastly, the comment you had about second half operating margins being similar to the first quarter. To hit your EPS number, it seems to be implying the back half of the year, the sales growth is roughly 13%. And just given the order book is up 27%, at least the implied order book, the I want count, up over 27%, the backlog is up over 20%. A, is there something about your ability to take these orders in backlog and execute on them in the back half of the year that would suggest you want to be able to grow really anywhere close to the order book strength in the backlog, or is it just, we will obviously discuss future guidance when it comes up in the next quarter or two? I’m just trying to make sure I understand why would the sales growth be that much slower in the second half than your backlog and order growth.
Amy Campbell:
Yes. So, keep in mind David that one of the things that we did this quarter is put the outlook out there, adjusted profit per share of $11 to $12, which reflects several variables that we think could be more or less favorable. We wanted to reflect a reasonable range that we think we can fall within. I do want to clarify one of your comments, which is we expect second half operating margin to be pretty similar to the first half, not necessarily the first quarter but pretty similar to the first half.
David Raso:
Yes. I misspoke, I apologize. [multiple speakers]
Amy Campbell:
I just wanted to clarify hat.
David Raso:
I meant to say second half similar to -- first half was 17 too, [ph] second half if you assume 17 too, [ph] that’s roughly the implied sales growth. That’s all I wanted.
Amy Campbell:
Yes. I think if you walk through the segments and if we are talking about volume specifically and again I think as we continue to work through supply chain challenges, we will get some more clarity as the rest of the year plays itself out. But, as we see it today, Resource Industries does continue to ramp production across many of their product lines and we would expect that. Energy & Transportation, we would expect to have really more we are seeing strength in the onshore oil and gas application, which is a piece of their portfolio. But, we would expect more normal seasonality first half, second half for Energy & Transportation. And with that expected seasonality in Construction Industries with China kind of 60-40 split. Even though we continue to see growing demand in some of other regions, we would I think expect Construction Industries to be more or less pretty even on sales first half over second half. And again, to clarify, there is still some runway to play out for the rest of the year. We do continue to work through supply chain challenges. But on a broader perspective, that’s kind of how we are thinking about volumes for the rest of the year.
David Raso:
Just to be clear, the supply chain isn’t the reason if that math is correct to suggest why the growth should be that much lower than order books and backlogs? I’m just making sure we’re not trying to quietly highlight that much of the strength on the backlog and orders turning into sales in the back half. And you’re saying some constraint but that’s not what you are trying to say.
Amy Campbell:
Yes. That’s correct. That would be the correct assumption, David.
Operator:
Our next question today is coming from Joel Tiss. Please announce your affiliation, then pose your question.
Joel Tiss:
Hi. It’s BMO. So, I just wondered if there’s any signaling at all from increasing the share repurchase that acquisitions are less of a priority or maybe they are expensive or just any color you can help us with there.
Jim Umpleby:
Yes. Won’t try to apply anything there. So, we continue to evaluate M&A opportunities. But we have also talked about our desire to return cash to shareholders. So, we’re not trying to imply anything there.
Joe Creed:
Yes. I mean, as we said in our prepared remarks, our results are strong. We’re in a strong financial position and we think we’re in a position to be above.
Joel Tiss:
And I just wonder, following up on that, can you give us just kind of a range for the free cash flow for the full year? And what was behind this accrued wages and salaries and employee benefits that it had a negative swing of about 1.4 billion year-over-year and I just wondered if there’s any big chunks in there that we should be aware of.
Amy Campbell:
Yes, sure. Joel, as you know, we don’t provide a free cash flow outlook. But, you are correct, we did have the accrued wages increase. And that has to do with 2017 short-term incentive compensation, which we pay a quarter in arrears. And so, the 2017 short-term incentive compensation which I think was about 1.4 billion we paid in March of 2018, and that’s compared to 200 to $300 million, I think it was about $250 million for 2016 short-term incentive compensation that we paid in the first quarter of 2017. So, that $1.2 billion, a difference will explain most of that change.
Joel Tiss:
And that’s not going to mean that the free cash flow in 2018 is somewhat a little bit below 2017 levels?
Amy Campbell:
Well, I think, we would expect. Again, we don’t have a free cash flow forecast, but we do expect operating profit at $11 to $12 versus $6.88 last year. We would have significantly higher operating profit. And that one issue around the payment of short-term incentive compensation expense won’t repeat itself. That was a first quarter issue.
Operator:
Our next question today is coming from Jamie Cook. Please announce your affiliation, then pose your question.
Jamie Cook:
I guess, two questions. One, can you just talk about the level of visibility you have in 2019 relative to, as we were sitting here last year, you noted a couple times, good visibility in oil & gas and mining. So, I was hoping that you could just put some color around that maybe in terms of lead times. And then, my second question, what is your approach to pricing with some of these longer lead time products, in particular when we have the material cost headwinds, I’m just -- don’t want to get concerned that price in that cost could be a headwind in ‘19, without getting to far out?
Jim Umpleby:
So, as we mentioned earlier, we are building some backlog in ‘19 for oil and gas and mining. To answer your specific question, one of the -- then back to the slide 11, one of the areas that has been slow certainly this year is offshore oil and gas. And so, for example, we are seeing increased quoting activity which is a positive sign, and that has to translate into specific orders. But, in fact oil prices stay strong and CapEx increases for the IOCs and NOCs, it wouldn’t be any unreasonable for us to see increased sales in 2019 in offshore oil & gas for solar. Again, mining, we are seeing increased activity, increased quotation activity, and that’s all positive thing. A lot of -- on the pricing question, obviously a lot of variables go into pricing. It’s a competitive market. We make decisions based on using the O&E Model based on the specific market and the specific geographic area. But, I wouldn’t be overly concerned, in 2019, with the price cost equation.
Joe Creed:
Yes. And just to add a little bit there, Jamie. I think -- this is the Joe. Input cost is one of many factors that goes into the pricing decision as Jim said. And keep in mind, as we look at our input costs, we have a lot of levers to try to offset those, as we said, this year even continuing to use the operating execution model, executing our strategy, staying discipline on cost control operational excellence. So, I want -- while it’s one factor, I want to make sure we’re not just sort of ring fencing price, input cost, ratio, I know it’s something that we look at. But we will use that as we look at pricing in 2019, input cost will be a big factor and what we’re looking at adding into next year.
Jim Umpleby:
And there is various elements that go into our cost of course. And if in fact, the costs are being driven by higher commodity prices, generally for Caterpillar that’s a good thing, not a bad thing.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question today is coming from Rob Wertheimer. Please announce your affiliation, then pose your question.
Rob Wertheimer:
It’s Melius Research, and thank you. I had the questions really on dealer inventory. And the simple question is just, do you feel like dealers have the right inventory? Is it too high overall, is it to lower overall? And maybe a structural question, if you would, just give us a look under the hood. I mean, a year or so ago, your dealers probably didn’t know that you could execute as well as you have into to a sharp up-cycle in lot of end markets. And so, I wonder how your dealers are feeling about the responsiveness of your production system and you know what that kind means for smoothness in the system overall?
Amy Campbell:
Rob, I will start that. When you look at dealer inventory, we have been able to add a little over of $1 billion in dealer inventory, most of that in Construction Industries through the first half of the year to support what are higher demand levels. Even with that where we target with the dealers for dealer inventory, we’re at the low end of our month of sales range. So, I’m sure that there are pockets where dealers would like to have some more inventory. We continue to work with them there. But, I think broadly we’re within that range. We feel good about that. Ultimately that is the dealer’s decision. We’re seeing as we continue to talk about really strong demand, our facilities continue to ramp production to keep up with customer demand. But overall, I’d say, when we look at where dealer inventory is, we’re very pleased with our ability to increase it through o the first half of this year and at the level it is, in terms of total months of sales. Does that answer your question?
Rob Wertheimer:
It does. Thank you.
Operator:
Our next question today is coming from Mike Shlisky. Please announce your affiliation, then pose your question.
Mike Shlisky:
Good morning. It’s Seaport Global. So, I want to ask about rail. I know you said in your slide that that market on the new site is still pretty slow to recover but you did also know in your comments that there were some strong order trends. So, can you give us a sense as to whether you already see, given the order trends, a clear path towards locomotive recovery over the next couple of quarters or any kind of timing as to when that might get better?
Jim Umpleby:
I think what we’ve talked about is we’ve seen certain indicators, certainly on our services end that is improved. New locomotives in North America has been slow but some of the leading indicators, there are a number of stored locomotives is reducing which it is that tends to be a positive sign, a leading indicator. So, again, we think that the signs are positive.
Joe Creed:
And we are seeing, as I mentioned also in prepared remarks, we are seeing orders for locomotive rebuild. So, that was also another positive sign and activity is picking up.
Mike Shlisky:
And then, just secondly, as a follow-up on that. If you do start to see some more new builds of locomotives, is there any kind of major mix shift we should be thinking about? Is that what happens as far as the overall E&T margins?
Amy Campbell:
Yes. I think when you look at that E&T business, it is such a diversified business, but there are always lots of puts and takes. And if you look at where their operating margins have been delivering, they tend to be pretty consistent, sometimes a little lumpy based on some significant deliveries. But that is a very diversified portfolio I think which I don’t think is really all that significant to put any too much focus on a particular piece of it. You will see lots of movements in any quarter.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question today is coming from Jerry Revich. Please announce your affiliation, then pose your question.
Jerry Revich:
It’s Goldman Sachs. I’m wondering if you could talk about why pricing turned negative in Construction Industries for you folks this quarter? Given where lead times are, input cost inflation, it’s just surprising to see the negative price realization. Maybe you could give us some context on what drove that? And earlier, you folks mentioned that price cost for the company should be neutral to positive in ‘19. Does that imply for Construction Industries specifically?
Amy Campbell:
So, for the first, Jerry, as said, Construction Industries is competing in a very competitive market. That said, we are very pleased with their operating margin. In the quarter, they had record quarterly operating profit, and they continue to be focused on growth. Some of the confusion, I think if we step back and clarify it a little bit, and I talked about this a little bit with Joe O’Dea is there is a bit of time lag. So, Construction Industries sales variances are often given at the time -- or given after of the time of sale to customer. They are post-sale sales variances. So, there can be a delay from when we ship a product to the dealer and then when we true up all of those sales variances to the customer. So, that’s a piece of it and that the process of that working through the systems will give us some lag into the back half of the year, we will start to see price realizations from positive in the fourth quarter. I also think if you step back and you look at where second and third quarter price realization was for Construction Industries last year, was very, very favorable and so they are coming off of extremely favorable comps from a year ago. On the price costs, I think you said we said price cost would be favorable in the 2019. I think to clarify that, we haven’t given any 2019 guidance. But as we step back and look at price assumptions and material cost assumptions, we do expect them to be favorable, both for the full year and in the second half. I think that answers your question.
Jerry Revich:
Yes. Thank you, Amy. And then, as you folks laid out on slide 12, your margin performance has been really strong early in the cycle. As we think about the operating and execute plan across the enterprise, how much of the benefit is in the run rate results that we’re seeing now versus what’s in front of us, can we just discuss that conceptually?
Joe Creed:
So, I just want to make sure I understand the question. So slide 12 is all historic performance. So, the column in there is trailing 12 months back to July of last year. So, can you clarify your question on…
Jerry Revich:
Sure. Yes. So, you are at the high-end or above your mid-cycle margin targets across the segments at sales levels that are in line to below mid-cycle. So, clearly, the margin performance has been really strong so far in the cycle. So, as we think about the operating and execute plan, clearly a big driver of the benefit so far, how big is the opportunity that’s in front of us, as you folks look at those plans across the enterprise?
Joe Creed:
Like Jim said, I think the way we would think about that is we’re always trying to improve part of the strategy as operational excellence. And if the sales were to continue to go higher, we would also look to try to have a little more operating leverage. But the heart of the O&E Model is trying to grow our business profitably. So, we’re really focused on also growing. At the same time, there is no one answer; there is a balance that we try to keep in check of growth versus the margin side of things. But, we are really happy with where we’re at right now and feel good about where we’re heading.
Amy Campbell:
And just to clarify, Jerry, because I think there is a fair bit of confusion sometimes about those Investor Day sales ranges. We did not call those mid-cycle sales ranges, we called those achievable sales levels. And so weren’t calling or declaring the cycle. And I think that is causing some confusion about where we are today, and we wanted to talk to you that on slide 11. But I do want to just kind of reiterate that Investor Day was not intended to be operating margins at mid-cycle. It was just to reference an achievable sales level that we’d achieved in the past that we thought would -- could reasonably achieve in the future. So, I just wanted to clarify that point. All right. And with that, I think that’s going to have to be our last question.
Jim Umpleby:
Well, thanks Joe and Amy and thanks to all of you for all your questions. Just to summarize quickly here. We had a great quarter and we’re implementing our strategy and it is working. We’re very proud of our global team’s performance. We feel good about our business and state of our markets. And we’re very pleased to have been able to raise the outlook. And we look forward to talking to all of you next quarter. Thank you for your time.
Joe Creed:
Thank you.
Amy Campbell:
With that, Kate, I think we’ll end the call.
Operator:
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude today’s conference call. You may disconnect your phone lines at this time, and have a wonderful day. Thank you for your participation.
Executives:
Amy Campbell - Director of Investor Relations. Jim Umpleby - Chief Executive Officer. Brad Halverson - Group President and CFO Joe Creed - Vice President of Financial Services
Analysts:
Jamie Cook - Credit Suisse Securities Courtney Yakavonis - Morgan Stanley Ross Gilardi - Bank of America Merrill Lynch Seth Weber - RBC David Raso - Evercore ISI Ann Duignan - JPMorgan Jerry Revich - Goldman Sachs Rob Wertheimer - Melius Joe O'Dea - Vertical Research
Operator:
Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Caterpillar 1Q, 2018 Results Conference Call. At this time, all participants have been placed on a listen-only mode, and we will open the floor for your questions and comments after the presentation. It is now my pleasure to turn the floor over to your host, Amy Campbell, Director of Investor Relations. Ma'am, the floor is yours.
Amy Campbell:
Thank you, Kate. Good morning. And welcome everyone to our first quarter earnings call. On the call today, I am pleased to have our CEO, Jim Umpleby; our Group President and CFO, Brad Halverson; and our Vice President of Financial Services, Joe Creed. Remember, this call is copyrighted by Caterpillar Incorporated and any use, recording or transmission of any portion of the call without the expressed written consent of Caterpillar is strictly prohibited. If you'd like a copy of today's call, we'll be posting in the Investors section of our caterpillar.com website. It will be in the section labeled, Results Webcast. This morning, we will be discussing forward-looking information that involves risks, uncertainties and assumptions that could cause our actual results to differ materially from our forward-looking information. A discussion of some of the factors that either individually or in the aggregate could make actual results differ materially from our projections can be found in our discussion of cautionary statements and significant risks to the company's business in item 1A risk factors and the 2017 Form 10-K filed with the SEC, and also in our forward-looking statements included in today's financial release. A reconciliation of non-GAAP measures be found in this morning's release and is also posted at caterpillar.com/earnings. So we're going to start the call this morning with a few words from Jim, and then Brad will walk us through quarter results and our revised outlook, and then we will turn it back to Kate as we begin the Q&A portion of the call. And with that I'll turn it over to Jim.
Jim Umpleby:
Thank you, Amy. Good morning, everyone. First, I'd like to thank our global Caterpillar team for outstanding first quarter results. I am very proud of how our team capitalizes on improving market conditions to deliver a 31% increase in sales and revenues compared to the first quarter of 2017. Our team also achieved the highest first quarter profit in Caterpillar's 93 year history. We saw strength across many of our end markets in the first quarter including higher demand for construction and mining equipment and for onshore and North American oil and gas applications. We had a great start to the year. But higher sales volumes wasn't the only contributor to this record first quarter results. Operational excellence which includes safety, quality, lean principles and our commitment to control structural costs is one of the three key components of our enterprise strategy. Our team kept manufacturing cost about flat in the first quarter of 2018 despite a 31% increase in sales volume over 2017 which represents excellent performance by our team. At Investor Day last September, we shared our target operating margin ranges for the company. And for each of business segments, at reasonable sales levels that we've achieved in the recent past. These target ranges represented significant improvement compared to those achieved the last time we experienced similar sales volumes. While operating margins are expected to fluctuate quarter-to-quarter, we are pleased that in the first quarter of 2018, construction industries and resource industries exceeded the targeted ranges communicated during Investor Day. Energy and transportation operating margin in the first quarter was squarely within its targeted range as was the total Caterpillar enterprise. During the quarter, we made strategic investments and expanded our offerings and services to other two key components of our strategy. As we focus on delivering long-term profitable growth in serving our customers, we will continue to make targeted investments through the remainder of the year. Even with these additional targeted investments, we are raising our full year outlook by $2 per share along with strong first quarter results, economic indicators generally remain positive and our backlog has grown. Before I turn it over to Brad, I'd like to say a few words about our refreshed cash deployment priorities. As you will see in the slide presentation, we made some changes in support of our enterprise strategy with some things like our commitment to maintain the dividend and a strong balance sheet haven't changed. We will change how we approach funding growth and share repurchases. Our growth initiatives will be primarily in the strategic priorities of expanded offerings and services not in factor capacity. In the first quarter, we also repurchased $500 million of common stock. Moving forward, we intend to begin the market on a fairly consistent basis to offset the impact of share dilution overtime. We are off to a great start in 2018, but we also have lots of work to do. I am confident that our team will continue to execute our strategy as we move throughout the year. With that I'll turn it over to Brad.
Brad Halverson:
Thanks Jim. What a great quarter? The strength in the global economy, as well as favorable pricing promote commodities is benefiting many of our end markets. But what is even more exciting is that all the hard work we've done over the last several years to restructure the business, along with our continued cost discipline while investing for growth, helped drive impressive margins, good cash flow and a strong balance sheet. This strategy is delivering and what we intended, driving profitable growth. This morning I am going to walk you through the financial results for the quarter, and our raised 2018 profit outlook. Then I'll take you through our cash deployment strategy that Jim mentioned. If you'll turn to Slide 4, that's where we'll start. So, I start with the top line. Sales and revenues of $12.9 billion were up 31% from the first quarter of 2017. About half of the increase was in construction industries and we continue to see strength in mining and North American onshore oil and gas for both new equipment and aftermarket parts. I'll walk through more details on sales when we get to the segments slides. Moving on to the bottom line. We delivered record first quarter profit per share of $ 2. 74 versus $0.32 a year ago. Note that in 2017, profit per share reflected a large restructuring charge for the closure of our gas Belgian facility. Adjusted profit per share of $2.82 in the current quarter was more than double adjusted profit per share from last year on 31% higher sales and revenues. We ended the quarter with $7.9 billion of cash on hand and repurchase 500 million of the company's common stock. As I said, a great quarter. Let's move on to Slide 5 and we'll review operating profit. First quarter operating profit was $2.1 billion, compared with operating profit of about $400 million in the first quarter of last year. An improvement of about $1.7 billion. Higher sales volume and the absence of the restructuring charge for gas leaks combined with strong cost control as production volumes increased, explained the profit improvement. The three primary segments saw strong sales growth. Construction industries up 38% with improvements across all four regions. Resource industries up 31%, reflective of a broad industry recovery. Energy and transportation up 26%, seeing growth across all applications. Both strong and user demand and favorable changes to dealer inventories drove the sales volume growth. The favorable change to dealer inventories was primarily driven by construction industries as the factories work to get inventory to dealers in advance of the spring selling season. As you may recall, this is normal activity for the first quarter and we believe dealer inventories remain aligned with current demand levels. Price realization was favorable $186 million or 1.6%. Manufacturing cost were about flattened a quarter on a 31% sales and revenue growth. Lower warranty expense and a favorable impact from cost absorption were about offset by higher material and freight cost, as well as higher short-term incentive compensation expense. The increase in material cost was driven largely by steel. We expect steel and other commodity costs to be a headwind all year. However, at the end of the day, higher commodity costs benefit many of our customers and they are one of the reasons we have seen several of our end markets begin to recover. Financial products were unfavorable $48 million, primarily due to an increase in the provision for credit losses at CAT financial. Now let's move on to the segments starting with construction industries on Slide 6. As I mentioned earlier, construction industries drove about half of the sales and revenues growth for the company this quarter. Construction industry's total sales were up 38% to $5.7 billion. Dealers preparing for the spring selling season resulted in favorable changes to dealer inventories. And we believe the increase is supported by current and user demand. Month of sales continues to be low as it relates to inventories as you compare to historical levels. And in China as a result of very high demand, we believe dealer inventories are at levels that are leaner than what will be sustainable. Additionally, strong global growth improved end-user demand across all regions. Order activity remains strong in the quarter, driving an increase in the backlog. If we look at each region, in North America, dealers prepared for what will be expect to be a strong spring selling season, resulting in favorable changes to dealer inventory. In addition, end-user demand was higher on the strength and non-residential, infrastructure and oil and gas construction activities including the build-out of pipelines. Asia-Pacific saw strength across the region with sales up 46%; about half of the increase was due to higher end user demand in China, which continues to be very robust with growth in building construction and infrastructure. EAME sales benefit from payroll changes to dealer inventory. A stronger euro and a higher end user demand. Europe is experiencing high business confidence and robust growth, and the commodity producing countries of Africa and the Middle East are experiencing some stabilization, which we believe is encouraging investment in infrastructure and building construction. Latin America while still at historically low levels is starting to improve with sales up 38%, stabilizing economic conditions and improving commodity prices are driving investment in construction activities. Construction industry segment profit of $1.1 billion was about $500 million more than last year, and segment margins improve 4.25 to 19.7%. Higher sales volume and favorable price realization contributed to the profit improvement. These were partially offset by higher cost for SG&A and R&D, material and freight. SG&A and R&D expenses were up to the higher short-term incentive compensation expense and targeted investments to grow the business. Let's move to Slide 7. And we'll go through resource industries. Resource industries sales of $2.3 billion increased 31% from the first quarter of last year. This was primarily due to higher end user demand for new equipment across all regions. Strong commodity prices and improve market conditions have improved mining customers profitability. As a result, miners are now investing in replacements for their fleets and initiating mine expansions. And this is driving improved demand for new equipment. In addition to strong demand for new equipment, demand for aftermarket parts increased as higher production levels resulted in higher machine utilization. Segments profit more than doubled from last year to $378 million and segment margins improved from 9.1% to 16.4%, a significant improvement and above the Investor Day range of 12% to 16%. The improvement in profit was driven by higher sales volume, favorable price realization and favorable variable manufacturing cost, primarily driven by cost absorption. Resource industries discipline cost structure enabled margin improvement. These were partially offset by higher, short-term incentive compensation expense and a slightly unfavorable impact from currency. Now let's move to Energy and Transportation on Slide 8. Energy and transportation sales of $5.2 billion increased 26% from the first quarter of last year. Oil and gas sales were up $400 million or 50%. Strength continues in North America, specifically for onshore, unconventional oil and gas. While the Permian Basin is the area of highest activity, we are also seeing meaningful activity in other major basins. This continues to drive strong demand for both reciprocating engines and their associated aftermarket parts. In addition, while demand for new equipment for onshore and offshore drilling remains weak, demand for transmissions, pressure pumps and high pressure flow iron to support well servicing has improved. The delivery of turbines for midstream gas compression to support the build-out of North American natural gas infrastructure remains strong. Sales into power generation were up 35% and improved in all regions. We are seeing demand increases after a multiyear downturn in sales. The largest increase was in the EAME region due to the timing of several large projects and favorable currency impacts. Sales were up in North America from a low 2017 base, due to higher sales from turbines and aftermarket parts sales for reciprocating engines. New engines and aftermarket sales for industrial applications increased 17%, largely due to improving global economic conditions with Latin America the only region that was not up. Sales in EAME were also positively impacted due to favorable currency impacts. Transportation sales were up 13%, driven primarily by higher sales in Asia Pacific and North America for rail services. Australia is seeing good growth including from a recent acquisition, and higher rail traffic in North America is driving demand for higher rail services. Marine was up largely due to the timing of deliveries, but the end market especially for offshore vessels continues to be challenged. Segments profit for energy and transportation was $874 million, up about $300 million from the first quarter of last year, and segment margins improved from 13.2% to 16.7%, which is almost in the middle of the Investor day range at lower volume levels. E&T's profit improvement was mostly due to higher sales volume and favorable price realization. These were partially offset by a higher short-term incentive compensation expense, and some increased spend for targeted investments. Now let's move on to the outlook on Slide 9. With a great start to the year and with the improvements we are seeing in many of our end markets, we are raising the full-year profit per share outlook to a range of $9.75 to $10.75 and the adjusted profit per share outlook to $10.25 to $11.25. An increase of $2 per share more than a 20% raises. If you move to Slide 10, I'll walk through the key elements of the revised outlook. The increase in the profit outlook is driven by better than expected sales volume. We expect strong economic conditions to continue and for commodity prices to remain at levels that support capital investments. This is driving and improved sales outlook across the three primary segments. We remain focused on controlling structural cost. While we continue to invest in long-term growth initiatives to expand products and to grow services, our assumptions for these cost increases has not changed since our prior outlook. And we remain committed to a flexible and competitive cost structure and keeping structural cost under control. We've recently received lots of questions from investors about potential impacts from higher commodity prices especially steel. The revised outlook does reflect an assumption for higher material cost. However, we have also increased our estimate for price realization, partially due to a mid-year price increase. We expect this upward revision to price realization to more than offset material cost increases. Also as I mentioned earlier, at the end of the day, we believe higher commodity prices drive improved marking conditions for many of our end markets. Lastly, on the improved profit outlook, we now expect short-term incentive compensation expense to be about $1.4 billion nearly the same as last year. I want to take a second to discuss the implied rest of the year outlook. As you know, we do not give quarterly guidance. The first quarter was impressive with segment margins that were above our Investor Day targets for both construction and resource industries. While we expect strong operating margins for the rest of the year, which is defined as within our better than the Investor Day ranges. We do not expect to repeat first quarter operating margin at the consolidated level. And let me explain what is driving some of this change. There were several positives in the fourth quarter that we would not expect to continue for the full year. The price versus material cost delta was very favorable in the first quarter, and better than we expected. We expect this delta of price versus material cost to be negative for the balance of the year. However, as I stated for the full year, we expect price to more than offset material cost. Second CAT inventory grew in the quarter to support higher production. Our expectation is that inventory levels will come down which would result in unfavorable changes to cost absorption. And it's often the case the first quarter got off to a slow start for projects spent. We expected targeted investments for future growth to be higher over the remaining three quarters. The outlook assumes that first quarter adjusted profit per share will be the high-water mark for the year. Now let's discuss the segment sales assumptions moving to Slide 11. For construction industries, we expect sales up across all regions. Strong economic conditions, strength in the oil patch and funding for pipelines and state and local infrastructure investments should continue to drive robust demand in North America. Asia-Pacific should remain robust with China leading the region. We now expect industry sales for the ten ton and above excavator to be about up 30% versus last year. EAME is benefiting from strong business confidence and stability in oil prices. And while Latin America sales are still at historically low levels, economic conditions are improving. For resource industries, favorable commodity prices and positive global economic factors have helped the financial health of our customers and improve business confidence. We expect improving profitability of our mining customers to drive higher capital expenditures for replacements and mine expansions. Strong global economic conditions should support higher sales of equipment for heavy construction and quarry and aggregate machines. Lastly, we expect production levels for our customer base to be maintained, supporting consistent aftermarket parts demand. Energy and transportation, in oil and gas, stable oil prices should continue to drive strong demand for wealth servicing and gas compression applications and rebuild activity in North America. However, demand for onshore drilling and new offshore drilling and production are expected to remain at lower levels. After a multi-year downturn, we are seeing signs of improvement in power generation, driven largely by improving economic conditions. Good economic growth should also benefit industrial engines and we have increased our full-year sales forecast primarily due to higher projected demand in EAME. Lastly improvements in North America rail traffic and a focus on growing services is expected to drive improve sales for transportation. However, marine and new locomotives remain challenged. Let's move to Slide 12 and discuss our cash deployment strategy. While not a significant change from previously communicated priorities, there are some differences I want to review. The refreshed cash deployment methodology reflects the fact that our cash priorities will vary from time to time, depending on circumstances and where we are in the cycle. Having said that, we think about it in a following way. Our first priority is to maintain a healthy balance sheet in support of a mid-A credit rating. Next, we intend to deploy to cash necessary to run the business, described here as operational excellence and commitments. Finally, the use of discretionary cash is shown at the bottom of the chart. We intend a fund profitable growth while still returning capital to shareholders. Caterpillar has paid higher dividends each of the past 24 years; sustainable dividend growth remains a very high priority for us. As you saw in the release, we also repurchased about 500 million of common stock in the first quarter. Our strategy for share repurchases is to be in the market more consistently with intent to offset the impact of dilution over time. In our prior cash deployment priorities, we often viewed profitable growth funding as investments in capacity. As we said an Investor Day, we feel we have the necessary bricks and mortar capacity that we need and expect CapEx to be about $1 billion to $1.5 billion for the foreseeable future. Given our current capacity, we have refocused profitable growth funding to be in line with the new strategy. We intend to fund initiatives that drive long-term profitable growth, heavily focused in the areas of expanded offering and services including M&A where it makes sense. Now let's turn to Slide 13 for a quick summary before we get to the Q&A. So in summary, sales and revenues were up 31%. We had a record first quarter profit per share and adjusted profit per share more than doubled from a year ago. It's a quarter that all of us are definitely proud of. The strategy is working. We are focused on structural cost control, while investing for profitable growth. And we are delivering significant margin improvements. The balance sheet is strong, cash flow is good and we bought back 500 million of common stock. And going forward, planned to offset dilution over time. Lastly improving global economic conditions and our continued focus on cost discipline enabled us to raise a 2018 outlook range by $2 per share. We are proud of a high quality financial performance in the quarter. The Caterpillar team has worked hard to reduce structural cost, while investing in the business. And this quarter reflects the fruits of that tremendous effort. As we look forward, I believe the company is focused in the right areas to continue to drive future profitable growth. With that I'll turn it back to you, Amy.
Amy Campbell:
All right. It's okay. I think we're ready for the question and answer portion of the call.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] Thank you. Our first question today is coming from Jamie Cook. Please announce your affiliation then pose your questions.
Jamie Cook:
Hi, good morning, Credit Suisse. I guess two questions. One some follow-up on your capital allocation priorities. I understand what you outlined but given the lack of internal investment that you need for capacity and you said you'll repurchase shares to offset Cree but it's I mean it's still you're still going to have plenty of cash. So I don't feel like that answers all the questions. So how do you think about a more meaningful share repurchase versus just offsetting Cree and can you talk about your view on M&A and how we should think about larger M&A over the cycle and then my second question given the performance that we've seen in particular on within the construction business and the resource businesses in the quarter, and even last year to some degree, how do we think about the margins in those business longer term given that we're already exceeding the target - your longer term targets that you put out in September. Thanks.
Jim Umpleby:
Hi, Jamie, this is Jim. Just starting with an M&A question. So all of our business leaders continually evaluate opportunities for M&A, nothing new so at any one time there's dozens of things we're evaluating. And so again we'll - we're ready to make acquisitions as they make sense for us. We've talked previously about the fact that we are very focused on expanding offerings and services, and that's where both our organic and our external investment will go, that's a big priority for us. In terms of the margin question, certainly we have experienced strong margins in the first quarter. Our goal is to grow the business and we talked in the yesterday about the fact that we are focused on growing absolute OpEx dollars, that's our focus. And so again we want to have a healthy operating margin range, but we really want to invest to grow and that's what we're contending to do.
Jamie Cook:
But just back - sorry on the share repurchase I mean given the pullback in your stock, the numbers that you guys are putting up which are much better than even the targets were that you talked about in September. How do you think about a more meaningful share repurchase?
Jim Umpleby:
We don't have anything to announce really at this time. Again, as I said we'll be in the market and consistent basis to offset dilution over time. We don't have any announcements today about any kind of share repurchase.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question today is coming from Courtney Yakavonis. Please announce your affiliation then pose your question.
Courtney Yakavonis:
Hi, thanks, Morgan Stanley. Just wanted to get a quick update on your view of commodity inflation. I think you mentioned that those continue to be a headwind and you did raise your expectations in this guidance, but can you just give us a sense of how much you expecting, to higher inflation already in your current guidance? And then a second question if you can just talk about your expectations for China? I think last time you had given us an expectation for about 8% growth. I am just curious if you can give us an updated view there.
Jim Umpleby:
Jim, you want to start with my question or would you like to -
Jim Umpleby:
Go ahead Amy.
Amy Campbell:
All right. So, Courtney, you're correct, we started off the year expected material costs to be higher. We started to see some material cost increases in the back half of 2017. For the industry, steel prices I think were up about 40% last year. I think they were up about 15% for the industry in the first quarter. We have not seen that type of cost increase flow to through to our results, but we have seen material cost increases most notably for steel continue to increase. And as we said, we now expect material cost increases to be higher for the full year than we thought they would be in the fourth quarter outlook, and that is primarily driven by steel. There are a lot of factors that are driving those steel cost increases, but what we pointed out is that we continue to expect price realization to offset those material cost increases. And in fact, from the fourth-quarter outlook to this outlook, we now expect the price realization increase was actually larger than the material cost increase so that gap grew a little bit, not a significant amount but it did grow a little bit favorable versus what we had in the fourth quarter outlook. And on China expectations, you're correct; we started the year expecting industry demand to be up about 8%. We tend to focus on the ten-ton and above excavator as we talk about specific numbers for industry demand. China continues to be stronger than we expect. We now expect the China 10-ton and above excavator demand to be up 30% this year. At that level that's about 88,000 excavators for the industry, that's probably about 20% to 25% above where we think normal replacement demand and the macro environment in China supports. But we do at this point continue to expect China to be very strong for the rest of the year. That said, we expect normal sales patterns in China, so we expect about 60% of end-user demand to come in the first half of the year, and about 40% of end-user demand to be in the back half of the year.
Operator:
Thank you. Our neck question today is coming from Ross Gilardi. Please announce your affiliation then pose your question.
Ross Gilardi:
Hey, Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Hey, good morning ,everybody. So I just want to ask you about this mid-year price increase. Our competitor is matching it and how are you presenting it? I mean it's a cost-push price increase or is it just because demand is so strong right now and you end up in a situation where you feel pressure to lower price if your input costs go down?
Amy Campbell:
So, Ross, there's a lot of factors that go into pricing. Certainly key to them is our strategic initiatives and our focus on profitable growth. We began mid-year price increases several months ago discussions around what was appropriate and the market environment that we're seeing today. And the mid-year price increase which is primarily for construction industries products and some resource industries products that are largely used in heavy construction activities is where we took that major price increase.
Joe Creed:
And this is Joe, this is when it was a modest increase and I wouldn't view it as a surcharge that would drop it based on commodity prices or anything.
Ross Gilardi:
What are you seeing competitively, Amy? Are you seeing other OEMs do the same thing?
Amy Campbell:
Yes. So I mean I think we're only feeling appropriate to talk about our actions. We certainly read the same information that you do, but I think it's only appropriate at this time to talk about our pricing actions not those of others.
Ross Gilardi:
Okay, fair enough. And then just about mining aftermarket. I mean you had just a huge year last year. Obviously your results improve quite a bit in the segment but seeing any signs to slow down in spare parts demand from mining equipment as rebuild activities already been completed and any more granularities you can provide on kind of a new equipment environment?
Amy Campbell:
Sure. So the short answer is no. We're not seeing any slowdown and aftermarket parts demand for mining. We continue to see robust rebuild demand; strong utilization in the mines is driving improving aftermarket parts demand and orders. So we expect increases in aftermarket parts for the full year 2018. However, we are expecting even from a percentage basis more significant increases and new equipment for mining. So after several years of underinvestment and replacement demand and some new mining expansion, we expect new equipment sales to grow by more than aftermarket parts sales this year.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question today is coming from Seth Weber. Please announce your affiliation then pose your question.
Seth Weber:
Hey, good morning, it's RBC. I actually wanted to follow up on the resource margin question a little bit more. So profits were up basically double on kind of flattish revenue sequentially. And I'm - I think what I heard you say was that the first quarter had more equipment sales, that equipment sales were particularly strong in the first quarter. So I'm just trying to tie a lot of this stuff together with kind of margin trajectory for the resource business, just the big ramp that we saw in the first quarter versus the fourth quarter. And then just kind of - while I guess addressed the mix going forward but should we still expect margin expansion from the first quarter level I guess my question.
Amy Campbell:
Yes. So a couple of things in there. The resource margin largely driven by volume increases. So resource industries saw a 31% volume increase driven by higher end user demand. That was the biggest driver. They also had some favorable price realization and really kept their cost relatively flat on that significant volume increase. So that drove a lot of margin improvement. One thing that we point out at the consolidated level that's impacting resource industries margins as we move throughout the year is cost absorption. So resource industries saw a significant increase in inventory in the quarter, which had a favorable impact to their margins and to their performance in the quarter. They now expect their inventory to be about flat for the rest of the year, which will have a negative impact and cost absorbs and for the remainder of the year. So a resource industry does expect their margins to come down from the first quarter, but to remain within the Investor Day range for the full year. And at resource industries volume levels, a few changes like cost absorption can have a meaningful impact in margin performance but for the full year we do expect resource industries to be within the Investor Day range.
Seth Weber:
Okay, that's helpful, Amy, thank you. And then maybe just a quick follow-up on the Finco. It does sound like some of the metrics did tick up here and I think you called out power, CAT power finance and some other Latin American business, is that isolated project activity or can you just give us any more color what's going on there?
Amy Campbell:
Yes. So CAT financials normal business in the quarter was quite good. Average assets were up, margins expanded. There was some weakness in the CAT power finance and LATAM portfolios as you discussed, and even in the CAT Power Finance, a significant portion of that was in Latin America. So it's a reflection of some weakness in Latin America that we all are well aware of and has been there for some time putting some pressure on that portfolio. There are also some unique just financing rules and issues in LATAM about being able to get inventory back and how you process through past use. And so overall, no, it's really mostly very specific to Latin America and the weakness we've seen in the recent past in that economy. And outside of that it was really just one or two customer issues that were going through some financial challenges and had some restructures to their loans.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question today is coming from David Raso. Please announce your affiliation then pose your questions.
David Raso:
Hi, Evercore ISI. Just a clarification I think you mentioned first quarter EPS would be the high-water mark for the year by quarter. And I'm just trying to make sure I understand, in the last 20 years your second quarter has always been above your first quarter except for twice, right, when oil and gas was rolling over in 2015 and in 2011 when Cyrus and the Japanese disaster hit the quarter. So kind of unique circumstance. and I know you just commented a bit on resource but can you help us understand a little more the puts and takes on why such an anomaly of the first quarter being a high-water mark? The idea the investments might be interesting if you can maybe flush out some numbers around that, the price costs won't be as positive as the first quarter, but as you said if anything for the full year, your view even get a little better for price cost, now maybe a lot of it was in the first quarter already, I appreciate that but I'm just making sure we understand why such anomaly that the second quarter is below the first quarter.
Amy Campbell:
Yes. So there are three reasons why we see the first quarter profit per share to be the high-water mark and you mentioned all three of them. I'll go through them again. Price versus material cost, very favorable on the first quarter. We expect to be favorable for the full year but for the balance of the year we would expect material cost increases to be greater than price realization.
David Raso:
And Amy if I can stop you there for a second, if I'm seeing a waterfall chart right, price realization with healthful manufacturing costs for a positive 207, is that the right way to read it on the consolidated operating profit, the waterfall chart?
Amy Campbell:
So we've got price realization I think was $186 million in the quarter
David Raso:
And the cost were positive 21 so called it 207. So if you think a full-year still positive. It can't take out more than $207 million. So I mean its $50million, $60 million a quarter drag. So that's $0.06. I'm just making sure I understand where are the magnitudes to create such an anomaly in your seasonal pattern of earnings.
Amy Campbell:
Yes. So manufacturing costs, a significant piece of that favorability was cost absorption. So with the inventory growth in the quarter which I believe was $900 million or so that drew favorable cost absorption. We do not expect that - we expect that to actually be an unfavorable item for the balance of the year. So it is there --there is negative material cost and that manufacturing cost bucket and favorable cost of absorption that will not repeat itself. In addition to that, we do talk about period cost spend which is twofold. One is just normal seasonality of spent. So the first quarter is often a slow quarter for project spending as R&D projects pick up throughout the year? And then many of our target initiatives for e-commerce, for digital, for expanding products like the NextGen got off to a slower start than we expected, and we expect those projects to get back on track as we proceed throughout the year.
David Raso:
And can you flush that last part out. Is the other part about starting year slowly and ramping up that's part of the normal seasonal pattern we've seen? So that doesn't answer the anomaly question. The target investment so it could be helpful. Can you give us some order of magnitude on how big these target investments ramp up as the year goes?
Amy Campbell:
I don't have a specific number to give you, David. I mean what we did talk about is that we did not change our estimate for those for the full year, but we got off to a slow start in the first quarter. So we kept our fourth quarter outlook for investing and those target initiatives are the same but under spent on those in the first quarter.
David Raso:
Okay. There's not - if there's nothing else to point at that, that's helpful, I appreciate the feedback. It just seems a bit of an odd - an odd seasonal I mean it just seems the last two times we've had the first quarter be even this low percent of the full year guide. You kind of have to go back to paying, we were peaking in early 2012 and we rolled over by the end of the year or oil and gas started to roll over in 2015. I'm just making sure we all don't walk away saying hey that was the best quarter they're going to give us period. Is that the only the time that's happened is we peaked in early 2012 and oil and gas hit us broadly in 2015. So I'm just being clear with what you are trying to communicate.
Amy Campbell:
Yes. So very clearly we are trying to communicate that we see strong demand across all regions and most of our end markets increasing from our fourth-quarter outlook. And so driving the first quarter raise is an increase in our sales volume expectations which implies that we see continued good growth for the balance of the year.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question today is coming from Ann Duignan. Please announcer affiliation then pose your questions.
Ann Duignan:
Hi, good morning, JPMorgan. Can I just take a step back on the price cost comments that you made. I just want to make sure I understand did you specifically say the price cost will be a negative for the remainder of the year for each of the quarters? And, if so, since you're pushing through a price increase in an environment where backlogs are very solid why wouldn't you push through a price increase sufficient to offset input costs and what does that mean for 2019 if we're behind going into 2019?
Amy Campbell:
So a couple things. Yes, you're correct that we said that for the balance of the year price versus cost would be negative. We don't give quarterly guidance. In fact, I don't have the breakout of what that will be quarter – by quarter, but for the rest of the year that comparison will be negative and certainly as we sit here today at the end of the first quarter, we're a long way from looking out into what 2019 will look like. And we do and Brad said this a couple times in his script continue to stress that at the end of the day higher commodity prices are a good thing for our end markets. And we're seeing that translate into improvements across many for many our customers. As far as the price question, we have good margins, it's a competitive marketplace, continues to be a competitive marketplace. And at the key point of our strategic strategy is to profitably grow the business.
Ann Duignan:
But just then as a follow-up on the backlogs could you just talk about mix in your backlogs by segments? I know you did address resource but are there any positive or negative kinds of product mix in the backlogs that we should be aware of as we look at the remainder of the year? Thank you/
Amy Campbell:
Sure. So the growth in the backlog was driven by construction energies and energy and transportation, resource industries backlog was flat and sequentially from the fourth quarter of 2017 driven really by two things. One, we had a very strong order board in the fourth quarter. We saw some of those orders-- we didn't - so I guess I would say it that way we saw a very strong fourth quarter and then velocity for shipment really picked up in the first quarter. So we were able to keep up with orders and get throughput and shipments out the door. Construction industries backlog increase is reflective of continued strong demand and construction industries. And I say the same for energy and transportation, the biggest piece of that for reciprocating engine largely for North America onshore oil and gas. And I know there's always a lot of interest, so our backlog remains healthy and was flat - about flat sequentially from the fourth quarter to the first quarter.
Ann Duignan:
And just quickly on construction. Any change in mix of the backlog more compact, more large not anything we should consider that would negatively or positively impact mix?
Amy Campbell:
Yes. I would say broadly speaking that we're not seeing much significant mix impact across the segments in our outlook. It's not an area that we're focusing on really positively or negatively. It's over the entire portfolio is pretty balanced.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question today is coming from Jerry Revich. Please announce your affiliation then pose your question.
Jerry Revich:
Hi, good morning, it's Goldman Sachs. I'm wondering if you could talk about your expectations of period costs over the course of this cycle over your prior recoveries around year two, year three was when we would see period costs really move higher? I'm wondering if you can counsel somehow to think about it given a difference in the approach to CapEx and post restructuring is this level of period cost performance that you put up in the quarter sustainable?
Jim Umpleby:
This is Jim. So, Jerry, we are certainly committed to controlling structural cost as we've said many times. We are going to making targeted investments and those are in the areas of expanded offerings and services. And so in the past when we wanted to grow was through either R&D for new products, we build the factories or we make an acquisition. So now we're really looking at in making some investments again in services. We're expanding our digital capabilities and so some of that will involve period cost, period cost but again we're very committed to keeping our structural cost under control. So I think I answered your question but again we'll make some targeted investments, but we're not, just don't let cost creep up the way they have in the past.
Jerry Revich:
And Jim the returns profile of those investments over what period do you expect an ROI? Is it a long-term strategic type of investment that we should be thinking about or is it more quick hitting within two years we'll see the earnings benefit of any related period investments?
Jim Umpleby:
Yes. There isn't one answer to the question. So for some of them that would be a longer term and for some they will be relatively short. So again as we focus on the aftermarket generally many of those investments should produce relatively short-term returns and some will be more long-term.
Jerry Revich:
Okay and then structurally how do you think about your expected level of dealer inventories in this cycle? If I have it right I think your dealer inventories are down half a month to a month from the last cycle. Is that the level that you expect to see in this cycle? Can you just put that into context for us considering how much dealer inventories can move early in the year?
Amy Campbell:
Yes. So, Jerry, maybe I'll step back a little bit, dealer inventory levels in terms of months of sales are at the bottom end of our current range that we think about, but keep in mind that dealer inventories are controlled by the dealers or independently owned and operated. So ultimately they have the decision power there. But we have moved I would say from a targeted range for dealer inventories in terms of months of sales from three and a half to four months of sales down to about three to three and a half months of sales. So as you hear us talk about that it probably is lower than where we were in the prior cycle. Right now we're at the bottom end of that range and in some regions most notably in China were actually well below that range, and we expect at some point I guess over the long that won't be sustainable, we'll have to see some dealer inventory come back into or Chinese dealers.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question today is coming from Rob Wertheimer. Please announce your affiliation then pose your question.
Rob Wertheimer:
It's Melius Research, thank you. The question is just a philosophical one I guess for Jim on margins. How did you think about setting the margin targets that you did at the Investor Day? And I assume that you think you can grow profitably and maybe even gain share at those target levels. How do you think about - is you as you achieve - as you have really exceptional results whether you let them drift above that cyclically or not, we're at low cycle or mid cycle now. And where they'll just above or not and how you think about competitiveness and balancing what margin you take? Thanks.
Jim Umpleby:
Yes. So it certainly as a balance. So to answer your first question how do we establish the margins? We looked at the margins that we achieved at similar sales levels in the recent past and we put forward what we thought was a reasonable expectation for our teams to improve margins. Now as we've said, again both this morning and in Investor Day, our goal is to profitably grow and we want to make investments to grow within a healthy range. We're not too concerned about quarterly deviations because we expect quarter to-quarter that there'll be some movement there, but again we're trying to grow the business over the long term in a healthy margin rate.
Rob Wertheimer:
And then you - I assume you think you can grow share a little bit in those ranges and would you let margins drift above that if we had cycle volumes at some point. We should have been obviously?
Jim Umpleby:
Yes. It is a balance and obviously one of the things trying to do is grow the aftermarket and have aftermarket you need to have market share of new equipment. So it's always a balance that we - there's no one answer to the question but yes we want to increase share we do, and it's always a balance between margins and share, but again our goal here is to grow the business.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question today is coming from Joe O'Dea. Please announcer affiliation then pose your questions.
Joe O'Dea:
Hi, it's Vertical Research. First just back on dealer inventory and when you look at the $1.2 billion of build in the quarter and it sounds like that's primarily expected to go to end market demand this year. So are you looking at no net build and dealer inventory? And then if that is the case where would you be on inventory to on months of inventory as you get to the end of the year?
Amy Campbell:
Yes. So your assumption is correct, Joe. We expect dealer inventory to end the year about where we are now at the end of the first quarter, maybe up or down a little bit, but I think broadly speaking to end the year pretty close to where we ended the first quarter. We do expect construction industries dealer inventory come down in the second quarter on a strong selling season. And at the same time, we expect resource industries dealer inventory to come up in the second quarter on continued kind of build out and support of strong demand and user demand for resource industries. And then for that inventory to again come down by the end of the year. I don't have an estimate a month of sales for the end of year, and quite frankly as we all know ultimately where we in dealer inventory will have a lot to do with the 2019 outlook is. And we're not giving that today, and so I think kind of estimating what months of sales will be and frankly well I walk through what our outlook includes exactly knowing where dealer inventory will be at the end of the year. It's a lot to do with where dealers are and where an expectation for 2019 for the dealers comes in it.
Joe O'Dea:
Okay, thanks. And then on mining equipment and you're talking about seeing demand both on replacement as well as initiated expansions. And I guess specific to the expansions, given the amount of equipment that was sold in 2011 and 2012, so I'm thinking that there's enough equipment on the sidelines that it can come back into service for a while. But where are we there? Are we had a point where through cannibalization and the amount of equipment that's back in service that we're getting to more normalized levels of parked fleet and that from here we're looking at needing OE to serve that demand? Just kind of a status update on un-parked fleet and the drivers of that new equipment demand?
Amy Campbell:
Sure. So the parked fleet does continue to come down, rebuilds remain robust. We expect them to be robust throughout the rest of the year. So I would say that there are still trucks that come back online in our estimation. It has - there's a lot of complexities about bringing the parked fleet online versus expansions where's that parked fleet add versus where are the expansions in mines at, and there are so many things driving new equipment demand expansions being one, but also replacing equipment which has been delayed for some time now also being a significant driver of new equipment demand. And so we do - I think in short we do have the parked fleet continuing to come down, rebuild, driving and aftermarket parts sales continues to be robust. And where that new equipment is I guess kind of in short term it's pretty broad around the globe and pretty broad by commodity. So the recovery in mining that's occurring continues to be pretty broad-based.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question today is coming from Andrew Casey. Please announce your affiliation then pose your questions
Andrew Casey:
Wells Fargo Securities, good morning, everybody. I just want to make sure I'm understanding some of the messaging coming out of this call because during the call the stocks kind of sold off quite a bit. You're kind of pulling back expectations on share repurchase and yet it seems like you're going to be generating quite a bit of cash through the year especially given the implied inventory drawdown. What are you looking to use that cash for? I know you've identified that the deployment options. Are we - should we kind of walk away from this call looking like you're a little concerned about peak or are you looking at an evaluating an active pipeline with an M&A? And if so, could you please share a ballpark average deal size you might be contemplating?
Jim Umpleby:
And this is Jim. So it certainly wasn't our intent to express a concern about peak to use your words, really no change here in terms of us continually looking at M&A opportunities. Obviously, our cash position has improved over the last year and that allows us the flexibility to make investments both organically and in M&A. And again, we're not ruling anything out. So I said about share repurchase we didn't have an announcement to make today. And again, we're looking at staying with our strategy to grow our business as we communicated in Investor Day.
Brad Halverson:
Yes. This is Brad. So my guess is you guys are modeling and you see potentially some strong cash flow moving forward and want to know what we're going to do with it. And I think what Jim has says we're going to continue to invest in the business, may be different than the past we're going to be in the market in a more continuous basis for stock repurchase to offset dilution. We are continuing to look to grow and do the M&A business. I think what we're saying is that we're not going to answer that question right now that you have potentially on your mind as to what we would do with the excess cash that could happen down the road. We're not saying it wouldn't be a repurchase; we're just not answering it right now.
Andrew Casey:
Okay, thank you. And then one last question as this gets to the cycle for a business that's enjoying some really strong demand trends. If we look at construction industries and exclude the China market could you kind of give us kind of a ballpark range maybe percentage or however you want to potentially answer it, where is construction industry unit volume relative to peak if we exclude the China market?
Amy Campbell:
So, Andy, I don't have that number off the top of my head. I think if you look - you have to look market by market, North America is doing strong but I think one could argue we're just starting to see healthy new home constructions, infrastructure remains far below potential. LATAM is just starting to recover and is well below the sales levels that it was a few years ago. And you could say the same thing about Europe which has been strong from some time now, but in total is far below where sales were in Europe decades ago. I mean EAME portion, of EAME have seen some weakness in the last few years, and they're starting to see a little bit of turnaround and improvement as well. So I think it is a different story across the different regions of construction industries, region like China we've been pretty clear. We think is quite robust and above where we think normal robust demand, another region like Latin America is still from a historical perspective at very low levels. With that I think that needs to be the last question. Kate?
Operator:
Thank you. Do you have any closing comments you'd like to finish with?
Jim Umpleby:
Yes. Appreciate everyone calling in today. We appreciate your questions and look forward to chatting with you next quarter. Thank you.
Amy Campbell:
All right.
Operator:
Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. This does conclude today's conference call. You may disconnect your phone lines at this time. And have a wonderful day. Thank you for your participation.
Executives:
Amy Campbell - Director of Investor Relations. Jim Umpleby - Chief Executive Officer. Brad Halverson - Group President and CFO Joe Creed - Vice President of Financial Services
Analysts:
Andrew Casey - Well Fargo Securities Joel Tiss - Bank of Montreal Timothy Thein - Citigroup Ann Duignan - JPMorgan David Raso - Evercore ISI Jamie Cook - Credit Suisse Securities Seth Weber - RBC Stephen Fisher - UBS Jerry Revich - Goldman Sachs Mig Dobre - Baird Rob Wertheimer - Melius
Operator:
Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Caterpillar full year and 4Q 2017 Results Conference Call. At this time, all lines have been placed on a listen-only mode, and we will open the floor for your questions and comments after the presentation. It is now my pleasure to turn the floor over to your host, Amy Campbell, Director of Investor Relations. Ma'am, the floor is yours.
Amy Campbell :
Thank you very much Kate. Good morning, I’d like to welcome everyone, to our Fourth Quarter Earnings Call. I'm pleased to have on the call today, our CEO, Jim Umpleby; our Group President and CFO, Brad Halverson; and our Vice President of Financial Services, Joe Creed. Remember, this call is copyrighted by Caterpillar and any use, recording or transmission of any portion of the call without the expressed written consent of Caterpillar is strictly prohibited. If you'd like a copy of today's call transcript, we'll be posting in the Investors section of our caterpillar.com website. It will be in the section labelled “Results Webcast”. This morning, we will be discussing forward-looking information that involves risks, uncertainties and assumptions that could cause our actual results to differ materially from the forward-looking information. A discussion of some of the factors that either individually or in the aggregate could make actual results differ materially from our projections can be found in cautionary statements filed with the SEC and is also in our forward-looking statements language included in today's financial release and the presentation. In addition, there's a reconciliation of non-GAAP measures that can also be found in this morning's release and is posted at caterpillar.com/earnings. We're going to start the call this morning with a few words from Jim, and then Brad will walk us through fourth quarter results and full year results and our 2018 outlook, and then we will begin the Q&A portion of the call. Jim?
Jim Umpleby:
Thank you, Amy. Good morning. First, I’d like to thank our team for delivering strong results throughout 2017. After four challenging years, many of our end markets improved and our team capitalized on the opportunity and achieved excellent results. As demand improved during the year, we stayed disciplined and maintained control of our structural costs. In addition to responding to the increase in volume and delivering strong financial results, we developed and began to implement our new strategy to deliver profitable growth by focusing on operational excellence, expanded offerings and services. Economic indicators are positive at the moment and we expect a strong start to 2018. Our focus on operational excellence will not waver as we work to develop a more competitive and flexible cost structure, including implementing lean manufacturing principles. We are positioned to capitalize on continued sales momentum or quickly adjust should conditions change. We also plan to profitably grow the company by investing in expanded offerings and services, the two additional major focus areas in our strategy. Let me give you some examples of the progress we’ve made thus far. In 2017, we introduced our first model of our next-generation of excavators. This is our first major excavator redesign in 25 years and just one example of our focus on expanded offerings to provide a range of products to better serve the diverse needs of our customers. We also increased our focus on services, including the aftermarket support in digital enabled solutions. We continue to grow our connected asset population and recently acquired two rail service companies. We are in the early stages of implementing our strategy for profitable growth. In 2018, we expect to make additional investments in the expanded offerings and services that are important for Caterpillar’s long term success and we’ll use their operating and execution model to bias resources to areas that represent the greatest opportunity for return on our investments. I couldn’t be more proud of what our team accomplished in 2017 and I’m looking forward to the opportunities ahead. With that, I’ll turn it over to Brad.
Brad Halverson:
Well thanks, Jim. It really was a great quarter with improved sales across all regions and nearly all end market. The team delivered strong margins while also investing in targeted initiatives to help us grow the business profitably. Today, I’m going to walk through both the quarter, the full year 2017 and then I will move onto discuss our outlook. Let’s start with slide four. On the topline sales and revenues of $12.9 billion were up 35% from the fourth quarter of 2016. The largest driver of the sales increase was volume, driven by an increase in end user demand for new equipment across all of our regions. We saw the largest increase in North America, with improved demand for construction equipment as well as our onshore oil and gas equipment. For the bottom line we lost $2.18 per share in the quarter versus a loss of $2 per share in 2016. And adjusted profit per share was $2.16 in the current quarter, up $1.33 from the fourth quarter of 2016. It’s important to note that adjusted profit per share excludes several large adjustments including the impact of U.S. tax reform, restructuring cost, mark-to-market losses for the re-measurement of pension and OPEB plans, state deferred tax valuation allowance adjustments and a goodwill impairment charge we took in 2016. The largest of the adjustments to profit per share was the estimated impact of the U.S. tax reform on our 2017 results. I will talk more about the impact of U.S. tax reform in a few minutes. But you can also find more detail in each of these adjustments on page 14 of the press release. Let’s turn to slide five and we’ll look at the reconciliation of operating profit for the quarter. As you can see fourth quarter operating profit was $1.2 billion compared with the loss of $1.3 billion in 2016. The positive changes in operating profit came from several areas with the largest being higher sales volume. We saw higher end user demand in all regions and in our three primary segments. About half of the sales growth was in construction industries led by strong end user demand in North America and Asia Pacific. And about half of the increase in Asia Pacific was due to higher sales into China. EAME and Latin America sales were also up. For Energy & Transportation the strength of the North America onshore oil and gas continued to be the largest driver of sales growth. In addition, sales were up across all applications in E&T. We saw higher shipments of locomotives, higher rail services driven by increased rail traffic, strong economic fundamentals for industrial engine applications and several large power generation deals that were in the fourth quarter. Resource industries had their strongest quarter for sales to users in over two years as miners began to increase capital expenditures. Aftermarket parts demand remained high to support increased mining activity and also to support overalls and rebuilds. Favorable changes to dealer inventories also impacted our sales. Despite higher end user demand, dealer inventory was about flat in the quarter, compared with an 800 million inventory reduction in the fourth quarter of 2016. However, with increased global demand, we believe dealer inventories for machines remained lean at 3.1 month of sales. This is up slightly in terms of monthly sales from the end of the third quarter of 2017, but still below historical norms. As we expected price realization was less favorable than the third quarter of 2017, but was still positive 213 million. The favorable change was primarily due to construction industry and was largely the result of a weak pricing environment a year ago and price action taken in 2017. Variable manufacturing cost were favorable 170 million, largely due to cost absorption as inventories remained about flat versus a significant reduction in inventories in the fourth quarter of 2016. Coming off four years of decline, the production increases we saw throughout the year challenged our suppliers. We are working closely with them to reduce lead time and raise production levels; however, we have seen lead times extend on some products. Despite these challenges, we remain focused on getting product to customers quickly, but also efficiently executing on the lean principles that we are continuing to implement across our factories. Total period costs were higher by $482 million; the largest driver of this increase was higher short-term incentive compensation expense; however cost were also up as we increase spending on targeted investment aimed at profitable growth initiatives as well as to support higher production levels. As a positive factors on the profit walk for the quarter, with favourable moves and restructuring cost mark-to-market and goodwill. Restructuring cost were $150 million favorable versus the fourth quarter of 2016. Mark-to-market losses on the re-measurement of our pension and OPEB plan were $301 million, which was $684 million less than the loss we recognized in 2016. And we saw a favourable impact from the absence of the goodwill impairment of $595 million that resource industries recognized in the fourth of 2016. Now let’s move on to review the full year starting on slide six. We started 2017 by preparing from what could have been another down year. However, we quickly saw increased demand in a few end markets, which spread as the year progressed. Then by the end of the year, all regions in the three primary segments saw increases in sales. That’s the first time in a very long time that we can say that. For the year sales and revenues were $45.5 billion, which is up 18% from 2016, a strong start to the year for construction in China, North American gas compression and mining rebuild ended with increases in construction demand across all regions, mining fleas being put back to work, orders for new mining equipment increasing and strong demand for onshore oil and gas equipment in North America. Profit per share for the full year was $1.26 versus a loss of $0.11 in 2016. Adjusted profit per share was $6.88 about double 2016's adjusted profit per share of $3.42. Again, adjusted profit per share for the full year excludes several large adjustments and we provided a reconciliation of those in Q&A number one of the release. Let’s turn to slide seven; we’ll look at operating profit for the full year. 2017 operating profit was about $4.4 billion, compared with about $500 million in 2016. By far the most significant drivers of profit was the higher sales volume, with nearly half that increasing construction industries led by China, but followed by improvement in North America. Resource Industries and Energy & Transportation rotation contributed about equally to the remaining sales growth. For resource industries, aftermarket parts demand was strong for builds to put mining fleets back to work and to support higher fleet utilization. Changes to dealer inventories were favorable and end-user demand for equipment improved in the second half. The increase in sales for Energy & Transportation was led by strong demand for North American oil, onshore oil and gas. However, for the full year sales were up across all four Energy & Transportation applications. 2017 was also a good year for price realization, although keep in mind 2016 price realization was significantly negative. Most of the price realization in 2017 was in construction industries. When we look at variable manufacturing cost, we saw favorable $433 million largely due to cost absorption, as we increased inventory to support higher production levels in 2017 as compared to reducing inventories in 2016. For the full year material costs were just slightly unfavorable with most of the impact coming in the second half. Material cost reduction actions do not completely offset the headwinds from higher steel cost. Total period cost were higher by $928 million, however excluding short-term incentive compensation expense, period costs were favorable for the year, largely a result of continued cost reductions and restructuring actions. Restructuring cost was unfavorable $237 million. In 2017, restructuring cost were $1.3 billion, with about half due to the decision to close the Gosselies Belgium facility. The full year results also benefited from a decrease in mark-to-market losses and the absence of a goodwill impairment that I discussed earlier. We ended the year with a strong balance sheet. Our year-end debt to cap ratio was 36.7% and enterprise cash balance was $8.3 billion. In the fourth quarter, we made a $1 billion discretionary contribution to our U.S. pension plans and we retired $900 million of debt that was due in December 2018. Before I discuss our capital allocation priorities, first I want to cover the impacts of the U.S. tax reform bill that was passed in December. Let’s move to slide eight. As I discuss U.S. tax reform I will break it into two sections; the impact on our 2017 results and the long-term benefits of the bill. First let’s talk about the impact of 2017 results. The fourth quarter provision for income taxes included a charge of about $2.4 billion as a result of the enactment of U.S. tax reform. There are two primary components of this charge; the first is about $600 million right down of our net deferred tax assets to reflect the reduction and the U.S. corporate tax rate from 35% to 21%. This is a non-cash item. The remainder of the charge is largely the cost of the mandatory deemed repatriation of non-U.S. earnings. These charges reflect a reasonable estimate as of January 18, 2018. However, these estimates may change as additional guidance is issued; assumptions are refined and any potential actions that could be taken as a result of the legislation. Now let’s look at the long term impacts of the new tax legislation. We believe the U.S. tax reform is positive for Caterpillar over the long-term, and then it provides a more competitive environment for us, both domestically and around the world by creating a more level playing field against our non-U.S. competitors. The reform also provides greater flexibility to access our cash in order to deliver on our capital allocation priorities. Finally the new tax law lowers the U.S. corporate tax rate. We have included the estimated impact of U.S. tax reform in our 2018 Outlook. However, it’s important to stress that the new U.S. tax law does not change our cash deployment priorities. I’d like to now discuss our cash deployment priorities as this has been a topic of interest recently. Our top priority continues to be maintaining a strong financial position to support our Mid-A credit rating. Next we will fund our operational requirements and our commitments, then we intend to fund profitable growth aligned with our strategy which includes operational excellence, expanded offerings and services. Returning capital to shareholders through dividend growth and share repurchases remains important Now let’s look at the 2018 Outlook on slide nine. Today are providing a 2018 Outlook for profit per share in a range of $7.75 to $8.75 and an adjusted profit per share range of $8.25 to $9.25. We are moving away from providing a sales and revenue Outlook range as our new company strategy is focused of profitable growth through the cycle. In -- for 2018 we are beginning the year with strong order rate and increasing backlog and lean dealer inventory. In addition, the global economy is the strongest it has been in several years with nearly every region of the world expected to grow in 2018. However, we know the market can change quickly, so while we are working in our factory and with our suppliers to support higher production levels across a number of products we also remain committed to a flexible and competitive cost structure that can respond quickly if demand changes. Now let’s walk through some outlook assumptions in each of our three primary segments, if we move to slide 10. For construction industries, the pie on the right breaks out our 2017 sales by region for construction industries. In 2018, we expect all regions to improve and segment sales to be higher. For North America, we expect improvement in both residential and non-residential construction. And after many years of disappointing under investment in infrastructure, we expect demand to be up slightly in 2018. We have not incorporated any impacts from a potential U.S. infrastructure bill on our outlook, and if one were passed, it would be positive, but we were not expect it to materially impact our 2018 results. We expect Latin America to continue to recover a bit of what continues to be a very low base versus historical trends. Europe continues to deliver stable and steady growth across most of the regions. We believe stabilizing oil prices and attractive commodity prices should also be better for Africa, the Middle East and the CIs countries. Lastly, we expect to see continued growth in Asia-Pacific led by China. Our forecast is for China to remain strong for the first half of the year and then slow in the second half which reflects normal seasonality. In addition to China, we expect most other countries in Asia-Pacific to grow, largely driven by investments in infrastructure. Now let’s look at resource industries on slide 11. Resource industries all signals indicate continued growth in mining. Most commodity prices are above investment thresholds and are driving increases in mining production. We build an aftermarket demand should continue as the parked fleet comes back online. And an extension of existing mines should drive demand for new equipment. In addition, we believe most miners have returned to profitability and we expect their capital spending to increase in 2018, with the growing share spent on sustaining capital expenditures. In addition to strong mining activity, global economic growth should also be a positive for heavy construction equipment, which is included in resource industries. Let’s move to slide 12 and look at Energy & Transportation. Again, the slide shot on the right reflects a breakout of 2017 sales by application. We expect sales for Energy & Transportation to be up for the full year. While we expect oil prices to remain volatile, we anticipate continued strength in oil and gas in 2018 led by demand for onshore oil and gas equipment in North America. In addition, we expect demand for drilling equipment to remain soft as it was for all of 2017. For solar turbines the current backlog is healthy, largely driven by the midstream pipeline business. We also expect [offshore oil] activity to remain weak. Power generation sales are forecasted to be up, after a multi-year downturn, sales into industrial engine applications are expected to be about flat, and transportation sales are expected to be up, largely due to recent acquisition in rail services. The Locomotive and Marine businesses remain challenged. Now if we look to slide 13, I’ll talk about a few more items impacting our 2018 outlook. Higher sales volume is the largest driver of the improvement in the profit outlook. We are also expecting period cost excluding short-term incentive compensation changes to increase due to wage inflation as well as targeted investments in profitable growth initiative for expanded offering and services. We expect short-term incentive compensation expense to be about $900 million. Additionally while market conditions are favorable, the pricing environment remains competitive. As a result, we expect slightly favorable price realization to be mostly offset by unfavorable material cost, largely driven by higher commodity prices. The 2017 gain on the sale of securities and financial products is not planned to repeat. We expect restructuring cost to be about $400 million for the full year. We have an estimated, a 24% tax rate which includes the impacts of U.S. tax reform. As has been our historical practice, we have not assumed any share buyback in our outlook. We expect to continue delivering strong performance with improving operating margins as we execute on our strategy focused on operational excellence and profitable growth. So to summarize on slide 14, we had a great fourth quarter and a great 2017. Our team managed cost as production ramped up. We delivered improved margins across the three primary segments and maintained a strong balance sheet. As we start 2018 we are seeing improving economic indicators across many of our end markets, and we are executing on our strategy with profitable growth and a focus on expanded offerings and services. So with that, I’ll turn it back to you Amy.
Amy Campbell:
Thank you Brad. Before we begin the Q&A portion of the call, I just want to take a minute to announce a slight change in the release of retail staff. So we will continue in the month when there is not a nine and of the quarterly release we are going to move the release of retail staffs from before the market opens until after the market opens the day before the release. So in the month of the release retail stats will be released after the market closes the day before the release. So with that Kate, I’ll move it back to you to begin the Q&A portion of the call.
Operator:
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, the floor is now open for questions. [Operator Instructions] And our first question today is coming from Andrew Casey. Please announce your affiliation and then pose your question.
Andrew Casey:
Well Fargo Securities, and good morning. Thank you for taking my questions. I wanted to ask about the Q4 segment margins they declined sequentially in an all three of the major equipment categories despite higher sequential revenue, and I know some of it is related to short-term incentive comp, but could you provide some further detail on really what drove that sequential margin performance?
Amy Campbell:
Sure, Andy. I think a couple of things. If we step back, keep in mind that we are playing operating margins over the long term and not quarter to quarter. There were a couple of things in the quarter that did drive segment margins down. I think if you look at ENT margins they were actually up, so I’ll talk through CI and resource industry that the consolidated level, the biggest driver was period cost absorbed. So if you look at cat inventory growth through 2017, we saw inventory grow through the first three quarters and then actually come down in the fourth quarter largely driven by turbine and rail shipments, but also in the other segments as well. So from a sequential perspective, there was less favorable cost absorption into inventory as inventory came down slightly in the quarter versus growing in the three quarters prior to that. And for resource industries, I mean Brad talked about this in the script. For the first quarter we really saw a significant increase in new equipment sales, which had a slight impact on margin, still very good margin, strong margins for the year the second highest quarter for the full year, but that did drive some of the sequential erosion and margins for resource industry.
Jim Umpleby:
And Andy, this is Jim. I can just add, just expand upon on some of Amy’s comments. We’re really trying to focus on the long term here, and we are focused on improving margins overtime to achieve our long-term profitable growth objectives. So there will be less emphasis on short-term incremental margins, and more emphasis on the long-term. Having said that, we do expect improved operating margins in all three segments in 2018 compared to 2017 on an annual basis.
Andrew Casey:
Okay, thank you. And then one last one on the backlog growth, when we and others and you mentioned in the call do our channel checks in order to deliver lead times are extending. It seems like some of that is concentrating construction industries but the backlog was pretty flat. Is there something else going on within construction industries that kind of offset the implied building backlog?
Amy Campbell:
The sales for construction industries were up 47% in the quarter and construction continues to ramp up supply to meet demand. Many of construction industries products are on managed distribution, so with that they take orders for current month plus two or three. And so there’s not unconstrained demand coming through the backlog. And so that’s really the driver of why you didn’t see a more significant increase in the backlog for construction industries. They do continue to ramp supply up to meet demand, and they are focused on getting every shipment to a customer order, and making sure that the customer demands are being met. Does that answer your question, Andy?
Andrew Casey:
For the most part, I’ll take the rest offline. Thank you.
Amy Campbell:
Thanks, Andy.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question today is coming from Joel Tiss. Please announce your affiliation, and then pose your question.
Joel Tiss:
Bank of Montreal. I wondered if you could talk about the key focal areas of your operational excellence and the simplification. And maybe if you can comment in that same vein on maybe medium-term if that 25% incremental margin that you guys have targeted over the long-term would start to change, would start to move up a little bit?
Jim Umpleby:
Good morning, this is Jim. I’ll take that one. As we look at our operating execution model and operational excellence, there is really a number of elements that we are focused on. In terms of operational excellence, it’s safety, quality and lean, so we are very much focused on getting more production out of existing bricks and mortar. We talked about that a bit at investor day. So we don’t anticipate investing in new factories, what we are really doing is meeting the increased demand through lean manufacturing advances and also frankly, we have plenty of bricks and mortar. And so we did talk about an operating range for all three segments at investor day. We are very still committed to meeting those ranges based upon the revenue levels that we stated at the time. There will be fluctuations over time and we are not just focused on increasing margins although we are committed to meeting those targets. We also want to grow the business, and so we’ll be investing to grow the business while staying within those ranges.
Joel Tiss:
And then just a follow up, does the, does the tax, the new tax legislation help you guys reach a settlement any quicker with the government over your long-term tax dispute?
Jim Umpleby:
We really can’t comment on this. I’m sure you can imagine, it’s an ongoing discussion with the government. We are co-operating and we hope to get to a resolution in an expeditious manner.
Joel Tiss:
All right. Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question today is coming from Timothy Thein. Please note your affiliation, then pose your question.
Timothy Thein:
Yes, Citigroup. Good morning. Brad or Jim you spoke earlier to the benefit to Cat’s tax rate from the recent tax reform. I’m curious how you are thinking about the potential for some -- the repatriation of what I believe to be is 5 plus billion dollars of foreign cash. So maybe just some, some thoughts around that.
Brad Halverson:
Yes, this is Brad. Thank you. We are really happy with tax reform in a lot of different areas. There has been a lot of good momentum around smart regulation and now tax reform. As it relates to our cash it gives us a lot more flexibility in our decision making in terms of how to use that cash. And one thing that we had talked about in terms of U.S. competitiveness is that when you put on an added tax on charge of using cash in the U.S. that tends to bias your investments. And so now basically that that added taxes been removed and so provides really a level playing field for cash. And so, we’re really happy with where our balance sheet was coming out of the downturn and what's happened this year. We were happy to make the contribution to the pension plan as well as to pay down some debt. It's in really good shape. And if you look at the outlook for 2018 that’s positive. We’re not going to give any details as to exactly when we would use that, but our priorities as I outlined in the call, I think remain consistent with our strategy in terms of the credit rating, funding our business and then using it to grow. And return to shareholders remains important. We’ve had a very long history of dividend growth which we’re proud of and that remains important. And we view share buybacks in the future. So you probably want a little bit more but that's where we’re at right now.
Timothy Thein:
Okay. Understood. And then second is just on that the backlog and resources and really what kind of the implied profitability of those orders. And I'm wondering if you're seeing any kind of signs of broadening out in terms of order trends by geography and really by payload in terms of size and the machines. It looks from an industry perspective anyway that's really this little recovery with more the deliveries had been directed more towards regions where CAT share wouldn’t necessarily be as favored. So I’m just curious if you're kind of seeing a broadening out to more the traditional mining regions. So any comments there it would be helpful? Thank you.
JimUmpleby:
Yes. This is Jim. So we are seeing increased demand really in all regions for our mining products, that’s a positive thing, so it is a – again we’re coming off a very low levels as you as you know, but it is a broad – it started to be broad-based in terms of showing improvement in regions around the world.
Timothy Thein:
All right. Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question today is coming from Ann Duignan. Please announce your affiliation then pose your question.
Ann Duignan:
Hi. Good morning. JPMorgan.
Jim Umpleby:
Good morning, Ann.
Ann Duignan:
I’m curious philosophically why you have decided not to provide revenue guidance or at least revenue guidance ranges by segment, I mean, this is an era where investors I think are looking for more transparency not less. And then, as a follow-on to that, I mean, what should we contemplate in our models to get to the low end of your guidance versus the high end of your guidance. Is that range in revenue or is it range of profitability or an inability to get the supply chain fixed. And if you could just talk about what's in the model that you’re looking it to get to the low end and the high end?
Jim Umpleby:
Ann, this is Jim, I’ll start then I’ll hand it over to Amy or Brad. Again consistent what we talked about it at investor day we’re moving away from providing sales forecast and we try to grow the company profitably over the long haul. And we believe that that providing an EPS range is an appropriate way to go. Why don't you take it from there, Amy, and I'll jump back in.
Amy Campbell:
Yes. I think if you look at the range of adjusted PPS that was provided Ann, and I think we were pretty clear about this. Clearly the biggest driver in profit growth is sales volume and so that’s going to have the biggest impact on the sales range, and so your sales assumption will drive you – is a key component of driving you to different parts of that range, there’s also lots of other variables around cost, price, material cost that could push you a different part in the range as well, but the volume is clearly the most significant driver of growth. I would say its not supply constraints, while we talk about the supply constraints and we continue to ramp suppliers and get production up, in the adjusted profit guidance that we provided supplier constraints are not any issue and we don’t expect them to be an issue I should say. I will step back and say though, if you look at the overall performance we expect operating margins for the consolidated company, and for all three segments to improve from where we ended 2017 and we’re looking as – Jim talked about the long game not quarter over quarter pulled throughs, but long-term margin performance. And for Cat, that actually put the operating margin in the range as we provided at Investor Day at lower volume. And so I think that's really reflective of strong performance delivering on the profitable growth that we’re committed to.
Bradley Halverson:
And again, we see sales increasing in all three segments, again as Amy mentioned, operating margins will increase in all three segments as well 2017 to 2018.
Ann Duignan:
The ranges in 2018, I just want to make sure, I get this absolutely correct. The ranges for operating performance for each segment in 2018 will be within the ranges you gave at the Analyst Meeting on lower volumes?
Joe Creed:
This is Joe. So not each segment, I think what Amy was saying there at the company level way it works out we expect to be in the range, but not every segment will be there. We’re working our way toward thereby improving year-over-year.
Ann Duignan:
Okay. That’s very helpful. Thank you. I appreciate this.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question today is coming from David Raso. Please announce your affiliation then pose your question.
David Raso:
Hi. Evercore ISI. The incremental margins for 2018, what do you expecting in incremental margins?
Amy Campbell:
We haven’t provided incremental margin guidance, David. If you step back and I think repeat what I just said to Ann. Its strong operating performance overall, it’s an improvement in operating margin for the company that puts the company operating margin in the ranges that we provided at Investor Day and shows improvement for all three segments in the 2018. And for construction industries, they actually ended the year at the top into that range, so they’re showing a little bit of improvement on top of that.
David Raso:
And I apologize to push, but I know that’s a scripted answer, but incremental margins in particular they were 30% for the equipment company in the fourth quarter, 40 the prior two quarters. Can you give us, at least, a perspective how you expect incrementals to be in 2018 versus what they were of late?
Amy Campbell:
I think what I can say is that we expect them to continue deliver strong performance early in the cycle, the pull-through are strong and you see if you look through a quarter over quarter pull-through, they do start to slow down which makes a lot of sense as you bring production back on line. We are committed to investing in growth through the P&L next year. But we still expect and know strong performance and to continue to deliver good returns, good operational margin increases on the sales growth.
David Raso:
And again sorry to push, but versus the 30 for the fourth quarter, are we expecting to be higher or lower. I mean it's a simple math. If incrementals are 25 next year you're implying sales guide up around 15, I mean we can do the math. If the incrementals are 30 it's more like 12.5% top line. So we can do the math. We’re just trying to think structurally just more of a revenue year where hey, the incrementals are little bit lower, we’re investing in the business or maybe a little supply constraint and keep the revenues low but will still give you a big incremental. That’s -- we’re just trying to get a feel. Are the incremental similar to the fourth quarter or lower or may be even higher?
Amy Campbell:
So, I think it’s clear, I’m not going to answer that question directly. Incrementals for the full year of 2017 were 40%, that's pretty high. It is -- 2018 is largely a year of sales growth, that’s clearly the biggest driver and the profit per share growth. And even with a nice, steep tailwinds we are looking at investing in the business, investing through the P&L, growing our digital and online offerings, investing in products, and so I don’t have an exact answer for you David, but…
David Raso:
A nice push. So I guess also on the revenue growth, if say, the framework is 25 incrementals, 15% top line and you have a little less CAT financial income, we get that. The backlog and orders are up roughly about 30% year-over-year. If you can help us meet with the dealer inventory for 2018, what is expected for that, so at least we have a sense of that swing?
Amy Campbell:
Yes. So dealer inventory, we have been pretty transparent into the year lean and dealers we would expect they would typically grow dealer inventory in the first quarter to get ready for the spring selling season. We’ll see if it happens again this year. If you look broadly at the dealer inventory composition, I’d say in total we’re pretty comfortable with it, but there are a few regions most notably China where dealer inventories are low. And so we would expect in a few regions for there likely to be some but not that much material dealer inventory growth in 2018.
David Raso:
So not that material, let me go back to 2010 and 2011 when you’re building the inventory would go up 900 million then obviously 2011 and 2012 we’re up notably large. We should not assume 1 billion plus type dealer inventory increase, when you say moderate sort of in the hundreds of millions. Is that fair?
Amy Campbell:
No. We would not assume as much as we had on those earlier years.
David Raso:
Okay. Terrific. I appreciate it. Thanks for help. Sorry to push.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question today is coming from Jamie Cook. Please announce your affiliation then pose your question.
Jamie Cook:
Hi. Good morning. I guess two questions. Amy, sorry to push again on 2018, but is there anything you can help us with regard to mix in 2018 versus 2017, because obviously that would have big impact on incremental margins? And then my second question I know guys that some on capital allocation haven’t really change your strategy, but also in your guidance you do say, our numbers don’t assume any share purchase which you usually don't put in your guidance, that -- to specify, we’re not including share purchase. I'm just wondering if you are trying to signal something? Thanks.
Amy Campbell:
Yes. So for mix, I’ll start there. So, if you look at it, there are lots of puts and takes for 2018 guidance, really they largely met out and it is a sales story. For mix particularly it’s really not very meaningful and probably slightly unfavorable as we see for resource industries move to a larger percentage of their sales base being new equipment as opposed to aftermarket parts. So there’s just a shift in that sales, but overall and even for resource industries it’s a fairly small negative. In terms of share repurchase I think we just put that in there to be clear that in accordance of historical practice we don’t assume share buyback and I think given the changes in U.S. tax reform and a lot of discussion we just wanted to clear on what our guidance is. We don’t usually state that but that how we always put the outlook together at the beginning of the year.
Jamie Cook:
Okay. Thank you. I’ll get back in queue.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question today is coming from Seth Weber. Please announce your affiliation then pose your question.
Seth Weber:
Hey, good morning. It’s RBC. I wanted to ask you couple of questions on construction. It sounds like you’re messaging that -- I think on the last quarter call you kind of message that you thought China would be -- had potential to be softer here in the first half of the or first part of the year. But it sounds like today you’re sort of saying, you think China is strong at least through the first half and maybe softens in the back half. Did something change there or you more confident on the Chinese construction equipment market?
Amy Campbell:
Yes. So, yes, I’d say, we are more confident on the Chinese construction market than we were a quarter ago. We’ve continue to see that market remain very strong. If you – we are forecasting industry growth for the 10-ton-and-above excavator which are the numbers we normally cite, to be up about 8% next year in the outlook. We were not there just a quarter ago, so I think that's reflective of continued – seen continued strength in the Chinese economy. I will say, if you look at the 2017 sales cadence, it did not follow historical norms. We saw continued acceleration in the industry as the year progressed. And what we highlighted in the release and in Brad’s comments is we don't expect to repeat, so we would expect China to revert back to more normal sales patterns with 60% to 65% of sales in the first half of the year and then for that to slow down considerably in the back half of the year. I will be ready if that's not the case, but that’s currently our assumption. We do think that the Chinese market is currently above normal replacement demand and will slow at some point. But our current read on the market that it’s going to remains strongly at least through the first half of the year. Is that answers your question, sir.
Seth Weber:
Yes. That’s perfect. Thanks Amy. And if I just quickly follow-up the more positive view towards North America infrastructure, I think in your prepared remarks is the first time you've kind of been able to make that statement in a while. What's driving that and what are you seeing out there that's give you confidence that that's going to get better?
Amy Campbell:
North America construction?
Seth Weber:
Sorry, infrastructure.
Amy Campbell:
North America infrastructure. So we’ve had FAST Act. That's been in play for several years now. We didn’t see really much impact to that in 2017, but our channel check, look like that we’re going to start to see some of that spending that was approved at the state and local level start to come through and drive some infrastructure growth in 2018.
Seth Weber:
Okay. Thanks for the color guys.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question today is coming from Stephen Fisher. Please announce your affiliation then pose your question.
Stephen Fisher:
Thank you. Good morning. It’s UBS. You guys call out the tightness in the supply chain. I wonder if you could just give a little more color on where exactly that tightness is and what did you actually assume that the supply chain has to do to meet demand just sort of comfortable that you didn't get over your skis with the assumptions this year. They need to make some big structural or capacity changes or is it just adding shifts or what has to be worked out there?
Jim Umpleby:
Hello. Steve, this is Jim. So as I mentioned earlier, we believe we have plenty of internal manufacturing capacity, but as is the case with previous ramp ups, we are dealing with some constraints with our suppliers and we’re working through one by one. There isn’t one big issues, it’s kind of across the board and we’re working with our suppliers to break our way through those. We do feel confident that supplier constraints will not be an issue that would prevent us from achieving the EPS range which we put out this morning.
Stephen Fisher:
Okay. And then can you just frame the 1 to 1.5 billion of CapEx a bit more, because at the midpoint that would be about a 30% to 40% increase off of your arguably low levels and I know it still below your machinery depreciation, but you’ve also said, just now you got plenty of capacity. So what's the increase therefore? Is that for automation or efficiency investments? Is it tax benefit motivated? If you could just kind of frame that a little bit?
Amy Campbell:
Steve, I see over the last several years spend kind of $1 billion to $1.3 billion in CapEx. In 2017 it came in a little bit below $1 billion, so some of that is, we spend a little less than we anticipated. In 2017 we thought we’d spend closer to $1 billion, $1.2 billion. What’s driving that, a lot of that is maintaining the capital, the machines and the facilities that we have. There are capital demands as we restructure and consolidate facilities to put lines in and so moving production from one facility to another. Those are the largest drivers of the capital increases in 2018.
Jim Umpleby:
And this is Jim, maybe just to add some color to that. Traditionally, we thought about growth at Caterpillar, investing in R&D and investing in capital in terms of building new factories. That's been really the portion as we expand our horizons here and really push toward services. We’ll be investing through the P&L as well. It won’t be just be capital to try to grow, so it's particularly important as we look at enhancing our digital capabilities and doing other things there as well. Again we’ll be investing through the P&L growth.
Stephen Fisher:
Okay. Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question today is coming from Jerry Revich. Please announce your affiliation then pose your question.
Jerry Revich:
Hi. Good morning everyone. It’s Goldman Sachs.
Amy Campbell:
Good morning, Jerry.
Jerry Revich:
Jim, I’m wondering if you can talk about the operate and execute plan. So, we really saw the sales variance allocation piece really move the needle for you folks in 2017, and as we think about based on what you folks have in the pipeline which we look for has being meaningful improvements in the business in 2018?
Jim Umpleby:
Well, it is really – again, this is long-term game so we’re focus on long-term profitable growth and as you heard us talk about before really comes down to us having a more detailed granular understanding of byproduct, by application, by market where we get the best return on invested capital and we’re biasing our resources to those areas that represent the best opportunity for future profitable growth where we’ll get the best returns. And so, I think difficult for you to see – for us to predict in 2018, which you’ll see it’s a long-term game, but again their focus on services as I mentioned is very important and we’re invest in but it is up against the long haul.
Jerry Revich:
Thank you. And then on the supply chain you folks are very clear within the contemplated range you don't anticipate supply chain being an issue. Can you just give us confidence range, sales are 10% above the high-end of the range which you still feel comfortable with that assessment. There if you could just help us understand the confidence spend that you have and you spoke about in the press release improving material flows back of 2017 verse of the first half based on your work with the supply chain. I’m wonder, if you could just quantify the number of problem components that you’re tracking or just help us, quantify that improvement if you don’t mind?
Jim Umpleby:
Yes. I don’t think it would be appropriate for us to give you -- quantify the number of suppliers, but again I'll just repeat that that we’re confident that we’ll be able to work with our suppliers to get within the EPS range that we provided. This is not something, it’s unusual we've gone to this in the past and it won’t be a major problem for us.
Jerry Revich:
And sorry, Jim, what if demand higher than the high end of the range, or guess what’s the level of confidence that you scale up to. Is it 10%, 15%?
Jim Umpleby:
I’m not going to quantify, but it certainly, if its more demand out there, we’ll do our best to work with our suppliers to satisfy that incremental demand.
Jerry Revich:
Thank you. Thank you next question today is coming from Mig Dobre. Please announce your affiliation then pose your question.
Mig Dobre:
Yes. Good morning. It’s Baird. Just wanted to go back to construction industries if we can, and maybe give you view on North American demand maybe frame that is how our thinking your 2018 outlook versus normalized demand or mid cycle. And I guess, I’m wondering, in your comment in the slide here that talks about improvement in residential, non-residential an infrastructure. What do you feel most comfortable that you’re going to see the improvement. And what does that in terms of equipment next year in 2018?
Amy Campbell:
So, Mig, I’ll start with where we had normalized demand. I think we are trying to get our way from calling the cycles. North America sales were in 2017 and we expect them to be up again in 2018, so we’re at – were healthy sales levels, where exactly that is in the cycle and if we’re going to pull from trying to predict that. I would say, exactly where we’re going to see the strength in 2018. I don’t have that broken out between residential, non-residential infrastructure. We do see strong demand signals across all three. I’ll say that infrastructure has disappointed us the last couple of years. Hopefully it don’t this year, we’ll see how the year plays out. But there certainly the need and there certainly the funding out there to fund infrastructure growth, another areas of strength in construction industries as pipeline build out and so we’re seeing which requires a lot of heavy equipment, construction equipment even some apply to small end of resource industries equipment. So as pipelines are getting build out in support of the oil and gas activity and there’s been a lot of pipelines approved in the last year, that’s certainly a key areas of growth as well and an area where we’ve seen really good business.
Mig Dobre:
Okay. And that’s actually kind of good segue on my second question moving to energy and transportation, maybe a little bit more color on the oil and gas component of that business and your thoughts on solar going forward?
Jim Umpleby:
This is Jim. I’ll take that one. So as we mentioned earlier onshore North American oil and gas has been quite strong, it was quite strong in 2017. We expect that strength to continue. Drillings relatively slow but well servicing is certainly and gas compression is quite strong for us. As we also mentioned there’s a good backlog for solar for midstream gas compression. As we look around the world in terms of offshore oil and gas that's still fairly depressed and we don’t see a major increase in that business in 2018. So offshore drilling and offshore solar turbines applications will be relatively muted again in 2018.
Mig Dobre:
Appreciate it. Thanks.
Amy Campbell:
We have time for one more question.
Operator:
Our final question today is coming from Rob Wertheimer. Please announce your affiliation then pose your question.
Rob Wertheimer:
It’s Melius. Good morning everybody and thanks for fitting me in. So the question is I mean, obviously your corporate results has been very, very good especially in margin. The question is on resources where we at least think it's an exceptional business, you have good market shares and the product runs a lot, so the aftermarket position is structurally good. And you had a great last quarter. Rebound in margin, this quarters down a little bit. Then I understand some seasonality to margins I get it. But is there any abnormal investment in that business that’s depressing margin, whether on automation otherwise or what was the cause of that lumpiness that we’ve seen last two or three quarters?
Amy Campbell:
Well, the cause in lumpiness probably has a lot to do with the sales changes, although we did see a sales growth in the fourth quarter. We talked about a little bit of negative mix there as they moved to a higher percentage of their sales being new equipment as opposed to aftermarket. We also talked about in the third quarter and we saw this translates that they – we had pick up and R&D spend for some product programs. We also typically see and you talk about this fourth quarter seasonal cost heaviness as everyone tries to get all their cost out in the quarters. So at those sales levels I think there is just some lumpiness to the margins. New equipment sales are still really low versus historical standard. We’re managing margin, I’d say to the full year and not to the quarter and that’s really where we’re focused at. We expect RI to continue to see operating margin growth in 2018 in line with progressing towards achieving the margin numbers they put out for Investor Day.
Jim Umpleby:
And just to add. This is Jim. Certainly mix has an impact here. So the mix issue between parts in OE, so as OE starts to improve that can have a mix impact and there are certainly impact among different products within OE. So mix is certainly a big part of it particularly when you're dealing with lower levels. Its easier to, I think it have a larger shift due to mix.
Amy Campbell:
With that, I think – sorry Rob go ahead. You can follow-up if you had one.
Rob Wertheimer:
Is it fair to interpret from your comments on resources again about the breadth of the recovery in the customer basis. Your order book kind of widening out as you see people -- I mean, more people bid or quote opposed to patchy?
Jim Umpleby:
Well, it still a relatively low-levels, but it's improving. So I’d said, we’ve seen an improvement and it is broadening out as well geographically as I mentioned earlier.
Rob Wertheimer:
Great. Okay. Thank you, Jim.
Amy Campbell:
And with that, Kate, that needs to be our last question.
Operator:
Thank you. Do you have any closing comments you’d like to finish with.
Amy Campbell:
No. I think we’ll just go ahead. It’s a top of the hour.
Operator:
Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. This does conclude today’s conference call. You may disconnect your phone lines at this and have a wonderful day. Thank you for your participation.
Executives:
Amy A. Campbell - Caterpillar, Inc. Donald James Umpleby - Caterpillar, Inc. Bradley M. Halverson - Caterpillar, Inc.
Analysts:
Joseph John O'Dea - Vertical Research Partners LLC Stephen Edward Volkmann - Jefferies LLC Jerry Revich - Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Jamie L. Cook - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC David Raso - Evercore ISI Ann P. Duignan - JPMorgan Securities LLC Ross Gilardi - Bank of America Merrill Lynch Rob Wertheimer - Melius Research LLC Andrew M. Casey - Wells Fargo Securities LLC
Operator:
Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Caterpillar 3Q 2017 Results Conference Call. At this time, all participants have been placed on a listen-only mode, and we will open the floor for your questions and comments after the presentation. It is now my pleasure to turn the floor over to your host, Amy Campbell, Director of Investor Relations. Ma'am, the floor is yours.
Amy A. Campbell - Caterpillar, Inc.:
Thank you, Kate. Good morning, and welcome, everyone, to our Third Quarter Earnings Call. I'm Amy Campbell, Caterpillar's Director of Investor Relations. And on the call today, I'm pleased to have our CEO, Jim Umpleby; our Group President and CFO, Brad Halverson; and our Vice President of Financial Services, Joe Creed. Remember, this call is copyrighted by Caterpillar and any use, recording or transmission of any portion of the call without the expressed written consent of Caterpillar is strictly prohibited. If you'd like a copy of today's call transcript, we'll be posting it to the Investors section of our caterpillar.com website. It will be in the section labeled Results Webcast. This morning, we will be discussing forward-looking information that involves risks, uncertainties and assumptions that could cause our actual results to differ materially from the forward-looking information. A discussion of some of the factors that either individually or in the aggregate could make actual results to differ materially from our projections can be found in our cautionary statements filed with the SEC and is also in our forward-looking statement language included in today's financial release and in today's presentation. In addition, there's a reconciliation of non-GAAP measures that can also be found in this morning's release and is posted at caterpillar.com/earnings. We're going to start the call this morning with a few words from Jim, and then Brad will walk us through third quarter results and our revised outlook, and then we will begin the Q&A portion of the call. Jim?
Donald James Umpleby - Caterpillar, Inc.:
Thank you, Amy. I'd like to start by thanking and congratulating our team for excellent results this quarter. Sales and revenues were up 25% from the third quarter of 2016, and adjusted profit per share is well over double what it was one year ago. Overall, we're seeing broad-based sales increases across a number of industries in all regions. We continue to see strength in China construction. Onshore oil and gas in North America is also strong. Construction activity in North America was up compared to last year, and we're seeing increased order activity by mining customers. Our profit margins continued to improve in our three primary segments. The improved margins are driven by higher sales volume, price realization primarily in Construction Industries, and our team's focus on cost discipline. Material costs were a slight headwind in the third quarter, and we expect this trend to continue. With this more widespread increase in sales, we have raised our full-year top line outlook. We now expect full-year 2017 sales and revenues of about $44 billion. And as a result of our team's strong performance, we are raising our 2017 adjusted profit per share outlook to about $6.25. We know product availability is a concern in some areas. We continue to work with our supply chain to increase production levels to satisfy customer demand for those markets that are improving. I'm also pleased with our progress in executing our new strategy for profitable growth based on operational excellence, expanded offerings and services. We presented the strategy in September, but I'm going to take a minute to recap the main components for you again today. We are pursuing profitable growth by reinvesting in our strengths. We are running our business using our operating and execution model as we have been for some time in select areas of the company. Now, we're expanding it across the enterprise and strengthening its governance. We're expanding services with an emphasis on the aftermarket and are investing in our digital capabilities. We're also extending our product offerings. We're fully committed to our lean manufacturing journey and to excelling at the fundamentals of safety, quality and cost control. We want to ensure our customers are more successful using our products than they are using our competitors. Finally and above all else, we'll be guided by our values in action. We'll measure the success of this new strategy by the value we bring to our customers, the profits we generate to fund reinvestment and the returns we generate for our shareholders. I'm confident in our team's ability to execute the strategy and confident Caterpillar is well positioned to compete and grow profitably. With that, I'll turn it over to Brad.
Bradley M. Halverson - Caterpillar, Inc.:
Well, thanks, Jim. Good morning to everybody. As Jim stated, it was a strong quarter with higher sales across all regions and improved margins, and we raised the profit outlook. Our commitment to running the business using the operating and execution model is evident in the team's focus on profitable growth and cost discipline building on our restructuring efforts. Let's turn to slide 4, and I'll quickly walk through the numbers. Sales and revenues of $11.4 billion were up 25% from the third quarter of last year, our strongest quarter-over-quarter in terms of sales and revenue growth since the fourth quarter of 2011. About half of the increase in sales volume was from higher end-user demand. The other half was from favorable changes to dealer inventory. The favorable change to dealer inventory was mostly due to the absence of dealer inventory reductions that occurred last year during a full-year run of dealers reducing inventory by over $6 billion, not from dealers building significant inventory this year. Dealers reduced inventory $700 million in the third quarter of last year as compared to a $200 million dealer inventory increase in the third quarter this year, a net change of $900 million. While changes to dealer inventory were favorable, it is important to note that dealer inventory in terms of months of sales are low based on historical levels and are lower than at the end of the second quarter. Profit per share was up $1.29 from $0.48 to $1.77. Adjusted profit per share more than doubled, up $1.10 from $0.85 in the third quarter 2016 to $1.95. Higher sales volume and favorable price realization were the largest drivers to the increase in profit. Let's turn to slide 5. Third quarter operating profit was $1.577 billion as compared with $481 million in 2016, up almost $1.1 billion. Positive changes to operating profit came from several areas. The largest increase to profit was a result of higher sales volume. About half of the change was from higher end-user demand and half was from a favorable change to dealer inventories. All four geographic regions saw sales and revenue increases ranging from 20% to 29% versus a year ago. However, keep in mind that, in some cases, this was off a very low base, especially in Latin America. Dollar sales increase was highest in North America primarily due to higher end-user demand for both new equipment and aftermarket parts as well as favorable changes to dealer inventories as dealers in North America held inventory about flat in the quarter versus reducing inventories in the third quarter a year ago. Asia/Pacific saw the second highest increase in dollar sales primarily due to higher end-user demand for construction equipment. About half of the increase was in China with strength also broadening to other countries in the region. Price improved $343 million in the quarter. The favorable change was primarily due to Construction Industries. Variable manufacturing costs were favorable $143 million largely due to the favorable impact of period costs absorbed, as inventories increased in many of our factories to support higher production levels. As we ramp up production, we remain focused on lean principles, and the inventory turns improved in all three primary segments. As we ramp, we are working closely with our supply base to reduce lead times and raise production levels, in some cases, off of a very low base. Our focus is getting product to customers quickly, but also efficiently. However, we are focused on improving availability to meet higher end-user demand. For the first time in several years, material cost increased in the quarter. We expect higher steel costs to put pressure on material costs moving forward. Total period costs were higher by $349 million. When you exclude the higher short-term incentive accrual, period costs were about flat despite a significant increase in sales volume. This is a reflection of our continued cost discipline that has enabled us to control costs while making targeted investments in key areas to drive future profitable growth. Restructuring actions continue. These actions are important to achieving the flexible cost structure required to remain profitable through the cycles. Restructuring costs were $90 million in the quarter, $234 million less than in the third quarter of 2016. Before we walk through the segments, I want to touch on the balance sheet. ME&T debt-to-capital at the end of the second (sic) [third] (10:28) quarter was 36.1%, an improvement from 38.6% at the end of the second quarter. Year-to-date, ME&T operating cash flow was $4.2 billion, $2.4 billion higher than the first nine months of last year. Enterprise cash at the end of the quarter was $9.6 billion. Now let's move on and we'll go through the segments, starting on slide 6. And we'll start with Construction Industries. Construction Industries sales were up 37% to $4.9 billion. Higher sales in all regions and favorable price realization contributed to the increase. Order activity was strong in the quarter across all regions, and the backlog increased about $500 million. About half of the sales volume increase was from favorable changes to dealer inventories. Most of this favorable dealer inventory change occurred in North America and EAME, where there was significant reductions to dealer inventory in the third quarter of last year. Asia/Pacific and EAME dealers increased inventory in the quarter. Construction Industries dealer inventory is up about $300 million from the start of the year, but from a month of sales metric, they're low versus historical levels. The other half of the sales volume increase was a result of higher end-user demand. North America end-user demand increased primarily due to increasing activity in the oil and gas industry, including an uptick in pipeline construction and improving residential and nonresidential construction. Asia/Pacific saw strength across the region. However, China continues to be a bright spot and a surprise to the upside. Our current estimate for 2017 is for the 10-ton-and-above excavator industry in China to more than double versus last year, which would result in sales that are higher than our estimate of normal replacement demand for the region. We believe that some demand has been pulled forward into 2017 so that construction projects can be completed before activity slows in the winter months. While we are seeing strengthening fundamentals in parts of EAME, the favorable sales increase was primarily due to favorable dealer inventory changes, not end-user demand. Price realization also contributed to the increase. Latin America, especially Brazil, remains challenged, and sales are still at very low level. However, end-user demand did increase due to stabilizing economic conditions in several countries in the region. Construction Industries segment profit of $884 million was favorable $558 million, driven by higher sales volume and favorable price realization. The increase in period costs was due to higher short-term incentive compensation. Excluding the short-term incentive compensation, period costs were about flat. Segment profit margin in the quarter was 18.1%, an increase of about 900 basis points from the third quarter of last year and about flat with the second quarter of this year. Let's move to Resource Industries on slide 7. Favorable changes to dealer inventories combined with strong demand for aftermarket parts to support overhauls and maintenance work, as well as improved price realization were the primary drivers of the $500 million increase in sales and revenues for Resource Industries, an increase of 36%. Dealer deliveries of new equipment increased slightly. As we have stated previously, the mining cycle has started to turn. The parked fleet has come down from its peak and stabilized for several months. The initial surge earlier this year in trucks coming into service bays for overhauls has started to subside, especially in Australia, where we first saw demand increase, but demand for aftermarket parts remains at a healthy level. Utilization on trucks has steadily trended higher over the past eight months and recently achieved a five-year high. While the number of trucks being overhauled has come down, the higher utilization and number of trucks working in the mines has also contributed to an increase in aftermarket parts demand. For the third quarter in a row and after four years of dealers reducing their inventories and our factories producing below retail demand, dealer inventories were about flat in the quarter, driving a favorable change to sales. Year-to-date, Resource Industries dealer inventory is up just slightly from the end of 2016. Although price realization was favorable in the quarter, the competitive environment in Resource Industries continues to put pressure on pricing for many of our products. Order activity across all regions remained strong in the quarter, and the backlog increased about $300 million from the second quarter. However, Resource Industries new equipment sales and production levels still remain at historically low levels. Segment profit was $226 million, up $303 million from a loss of $77 million in 2016. The improvement in profit resulted from higher sales volume, favorable price realization, lower manufacturing cost, primarily due to cost absorption as inventories increased in the quarter and were about flat a year ago. Period costs were about flat as the benefits from a number of restructuring and cost reduction actions offset higher short-term incentive compensation. Segment profit as a percent of sales improved to 11.6% from a loss position a year ago. It was the best quarter this year for Resource Industries in terms of both segment profit and profit as a percent of sales. Now we'll move to Energy & Transportation on slide 8. Energy & Transportation sales, including inter-segment sales, were up about $600 million or 16% in the quarter to $4.8 billion. Sales were higher across all applications. New engines and aftermarket sales for industrial applications increased in all regions to support higher equipment demand across several industrial customers' end markets. In oil and gas, demand for aftermarket parts to support well servicing applications increased in the quarter. In addition, the build-out of North American natural gas infrastructure, combined with new wells that have had a higher concentration of natural gas than previous wells, continued to drive strong demand in midstream gas compression. Sales into power generation were up, largely due to timing of projects in North America and EAME. Transportation sales were also up, as rail services demand increased to support higher North America rail traffic in the quarter. Segment profit for Energy &Transportation was up $178 million from $572 million to $750 million. This was largely attributable to higher sales volume and a favorable impact from cost absorption, as inventories increased in the third quarter of this year to support higher production levels and were flat last year. Period cost increased in the quarter, primarily driven by higher short-term incentive compensation. Segment profit as a percent of sales improved 180 basis points to 15.5% from 13.7%. Before I move on to the outlook, a few comments on Financial Products. Operating profit was about flat versus the third quarter of last year. The portfolio remains healthy with past dues down 4 basis points from the third quarter of 2016 and used equipment prices continued to improve. Now let's move on to the outlook on slide 9. In July, we provided an outlook for sales and revenues of $42 billion to $44 billion. As a result of encouraging order rates, good economic indicators and an increasing backlog, we are providing new guidance for sales and revenues of about $44 billion. We have raised the profit per share outlook to about $4.60 and raised the adjusted profit per share outlook from $5 at the midpoint of the previous sales and revenue range to about $6.25. The increase in the profit outlook is largely a result of a higher estimate for sales combined with a favorable mix, improved price realization, and the slower ramp of period cost spend for targeted investments. These positives are slightly offset by an increase in short-term incentive compensation expense and higher material cost. Sales and revenues in 2016 were $38.5 billion, and profit per share was a loss of $0.11 with adjusted profit per share of $3.42. Our revised outlook is sales and revenues of about $44 billion, profit per share of $4.60, and adjusted profit per share of $6.25. This equates to adjusted profit per share up more than 80% on about a 14% sales and revenues increase. The implied fourth quarter is for sales and revenues of about $11.4 billion and adjusted profit per share of $1.53. We expect higher material cost and period cost spend for targeted investments will negatively impact operating leverage in the fourth quarter. Now let's discuss the sales outlook starting on slide 10. We now expect Construction Industries' sales for the year to be up about 20% versus the previous outlook of up 10% to 15%, driven largely by higher end-user demand across all regions. The increase on the sales outlook is driven primarily by a higher sales forecast for Asia/Pacific and North America, with strength in Asia/Pacific expanding beyond just China. Order rate for Construction Industries have been strong across all regions, although in many cases off a very low base. The backlog is up significantly from the third quarter of 2016 and also up from the second quarter of 2017. For Resource Industries, we now expect sales to be up about 30% for the full year versus the previous outlook of up 20% to 25%. In our prior outlook, we expected aftermarket parts sales to decline in the second half of the year, as machine rebuilds were expected to slow and for sale of new equipment to offset this decrease. As predicted, we did see some slowing in aftermarket parts sales in the third quarter; however, not to the pace that was anticipated. The increase to the sales outlook for Resource Industries is largely driven by our higher expectation for aftermarket parts sales. Our forecast for new equipment sales has not changed from our previous outlook. We continue to see strong order activity for Resource Industries, and the backlog increased from both the third quarter 2016 and the second quarter of this year. Energy & Transportation sales are forecasted to be up about 10% for the year versus the previous outlook of up 5% to 10%. The largest driver of the increase in the sales outlook for Energy & Transportation is a higher forecast for the sale of engines into industrial applications, as our customers across several industrial end markets are seeing strength in their industries. Energy & Transportation 2017 sales growth is largely due to the strength in onshore North America oil and gas. We continue to see strong rebuild activity in wells servicing for engines, transmissions, pumps and flow iron as well as demand for new equipment. We also expect shipments to North America gas compression customers to be higher this year, driven largely by demand for reciprocating engines, as solar sales into oil and gas applications are expected to be flat for the full year. Transportation is now expected to be up, as higher rail traffic has driven higher demand for rail services. Power generation industry remains challenged, and we anticipate sales to be about flat to slightly up for the full year. While order activity has been strong for the first three quarters of 2017 and the backlog is up, geopolitical uncertainty, global and regional GDP growth and commodity volatility will be risks as we move into 2018. Potential tax reform and an infrastructure bill would be positives for the long term. At this time, we are focused on operational excellence, and our segments are in the process of planning and implementing strategies to drive profitable growth. It is too early to comment on 2018, and we will share more on 2018 in January. So, let's wrap up with a few takeaways on slide 11. In the third quarter, we saw encouraging order rates and an increasing backlog in the quarter. Year-over-year sales and revenues were higher by more than $2 billion. Operational performance for the year has been strong, as third quarter segment margins continued to improve as a result of our commitment to the O&E model, operational excellence and profitable growth. The balance sheet remains strong with $9.6 billion of enterprise cash on hand and a debt-to-cap ratio of 36.1%. Given year-to-date performance and confidence in our end markets, we raised the 2017 profit outlook. We are focused on delivering the new strategy that Jim rolled out in September at Investor Day and are focused on driving profitable growth through margin expansion, asset efficiency and expanded offerings, especially services. With that, I'll now turn it back to you, Amy.
Amy A. Campbell - Caterpillar, Inc.:
All right. Thanks, Brad. And, Kate, let's open up the phones for the Q&A portion of the call.
Operator:
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, the floor is now open for questions. Our first question today is coming from Joseph O'Dea. Joseph, your line is live. Please announce your affiliation and then pose your question.
Joseph John O'Dea - Vertical Research Partners LLC:
Hi. Good morning. It's Vertical Research. First question on dealer inventory. In the first half of the year, the trends were pretty similar to what you had seen in the first half of 2016. So, this quarter marks the first real change we've seen there. And I guess just to understand a little bit better about why we saw that sudden change, the support behind that. And then maybe in addition, if you could just talk a little bit to the month of inventory across the segments. You touched that there're really no warning signs, as that's still below averages, but just a little context there.
Amy A. Campbell - Caterpillar, Inc.:
Sure. Good morning, Joe. So, if you look at dealer inventory first half versus second half this year versus last year, I think what you saw in the first half of 2017 was pretty typical dealer inventory behavior with dealers building inventory in the first quarter in preparation of the spring and summer selling season and then working through that inventory in the second quarter. However, I would say the dealers did build a little bit less inventory in the first quarter of this year than they did a year prior, and that was primarily due to what was a really strong first quarter in China, some due to just what has continued to be an extremely strong industry, and some also having to do with the timing of the Chinese New Year. So, I think the first half of the year looked like what we have seasonally seen. If you go back into 2016 and even the few years prior to that, we have seen dealers take significant inventory out in the back half of the year, both in the third and the fourth quarters. I think if you look back last year, we also saw the backlog coming down in the third quarter or maybe even just about flat. So, I think that's pretty normal activity what we're seeing on the third quarter of this year is the backlog going up. And so I think the strength currently in the end markets, which is for Construction Industries and Resource Industries, is pretty broad based regionally. It's what's driving dealers to not pull inventory out as much. Certainly, they are working hard to satisfy end-user demand. Turn that around and look at month of sales, so even though dealer inventory didn't come out nearly as much as it did third quarter of last year, month of sales are quite a bit lower than where we ended the third quarter of 2016. Our normal targeted range for month of sales is about 3.5 to 4 months. We're below that. Dealers are sending many products straight through the customers and not building inventory up. So, I think it really has to do with the strength in Construction and Resource end markets that they're not pulling inventory down as much. And I would guess, I would say, their order rates are up, so they're ordering and refilling general inventory, as opposed to a year ago their order rates were starting to decline.
Joseph John O'Dea - Vertical Research Partners LLC:
Got it. And then on the pricing front, really strong pricing in both Construction and Resources. How much of that was linked to the opportunity to move prices in the middle of the year as some of this restock was underway and something that you wouldn't necessarily have been able to anticipate earlier in the year, but just to try to understand the ability to get the kind of pricing you got in the quarter?
Amy A. Campbell - Caterpillar, Inc.:
Yeah. I think if you look at the pricing in the quarter, it's largely a story of comps versus 2016, especially for Construction Industries, but even for Resource Industries to some extent. If you look at 2016, I think prices were down about 4% or so for the full year. We've largely clawed that negative price realization back through the third quarter of 2016. And so if you look over a couple of year trend for construction industry pricing, it's really been fairly flat. I think you need to go back, since 2014 price realization in Construction Industries has been fairly flat. So, we have a – we see over the medium term a very competitive pricing situation, but 2016, as we all know, was difficult for Construction Industries from a price realization perspective. And so it's not so much that we're really seeing a market that's conducive to taking price increases. In fact, I think we would say the opposite. The market continues to be extremely competitive. The continued strong dollar is competitive. In Resource Industries, about half of that change was just from a comp basis, some of the others was just particular deals and where those were located around the world. So, there's not much story in Resource Industries either. We also see in the Resource Industries end markets very competitive pricing situation and don't see a lot of opportunity to be able to take price increases there as well.
Joseph John O'Dea - Vertical Research Partners LLC:
Very helpful. Thanks very much.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next call today is coming from Stephen Volkmann. Stephen, your line is live. Please announce your affiliation and then pose your question.
Stephen Edward Volkmann - Jefferies LLC:
Hi, good morning. It's Jefferies.
Amy A. Campbell - Caterpillar, Inc.:
Good morning, Steve.
Donald James Umpleby - Caterpillar, Inc.:
Good morning.
Stephen Edward Volkmann - Jefferies LLC:
I'm wondering if we can dig in a little bit more on this inventory thing, too. And I guess my head is spinning a little bit because it looks like you're not – as you say, the dealers aren't really building. And yet, the retail sales numbers that you've been giving us are basically double what you – or sorry, Cat's reported sales are basically double what the retail sales that you gave us yesterday are. And so clearly, there's something going on there that I'm trying to kind of square up. Any insights?
Amy A. Campbell - Caterpillar, Inc.:
Yeah. I think, it is a complicated story, and I'll attempt to walk through it kind of in the few drivers that are driving the disconnect. And so if you look at retail sales, those are neutralized for price and currency, and they don't include, generally speaking, aftermarket parts increases. And then there is the dealer inventory change. So, of the sales increase for the quarter, if you look at – and Brad talked about this, about a $200 million dealer inventory increase versus a $700 million dealer decrease a year ago, that's $900 million favorable to the top line, you won't see that translate through retail stats. Price realization a little over $300 million favorable in the quarter; that's also not going to translate into retail stats. And then lastly, as we talked, it's been a good quarter and a good year for aftermarket parts for mining as well as in North American oil and gas applications. And those also aren't going to translate into retail sales. So, those are the three big differences where you're seeing on a reported sales and revenues increase being significantly higher than those that are coming through retail stats.
Stephen Edward Volkmann - Jefferies LLC:
Okay. Yeah, that's helpful. And then maybe the next step is, how should I think about this impacting margins, because obviously your margins are very high here? Should I think that you were basically over-absorbing last year, so your margins were artificially low and this is what normal looks like? Or are you actually over-absorbing today due to these changes in inventory and sort of the normal would be maybe a little lower than it currently is?
Amy A. Campbell - Caterpillar, Inc.:
By over-absorbing, are you referencing the inventory numbers, Steve?
Stephen Edward Volkmann - Jefferies LLC:
Yeah.
Amy A. Campbell - Caterpillar, Inc.:
Yeah. So, I mean those inventory numbers are dealer inventory, so they don't translate back into the cost absorption we see for Caterpillar inventory. We do have favorable cost absorption due to inventory increases. I don't know that I can say if that's normal or not, and I don't have – I mean, you can calculate that, that is what drove most of the variable manufacturing cost improvement in the quarter. But with these higher production levels, I think as we would expect, we are seeing Cat inventory go up to support the higher production levels. But even with that, continuing to see inventory turns improve. So, we definitely had some favorable cost absorption into the quarter as those inventories went up. I think, as we look into the fourth quarter, that is and in the implied a little bit of profit erosion in the fourth quarter. A piece of that comes from – especially with some large shipments of solar turbines and locomotives, we will see some inventory come down in E&T when we have some negative impact expected from that in the fourth quarter.
Stephen Edward Volkmann - Jefferies LLC:
Great. Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question today is coming from Jerry Revich. Jerry, your line is live. Please announce your affiliation and then pose your question.
Jerry Revich - Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC:
Hi, good morning everyone. It's Goldman Sachs. I'm wondering if you could just talk a little bit more about the supply chain performance, if you can touch on supplier on-time deliveries, if you can quantify that for us. And overall, what's the level of production growth over the next 12 to 24 months? Do you folks feel comfortable the supply base can underwrite? As you pointed out in the prepared remarks, it's been volatile a couple of years for a big chunk of the supply base. I'm wondering how comfortable you are with their ability to ramp.
Donald James Umpleby - Caterpillar, Inc.:
Good morning, Jerry. It's Jim. I'll take that one. As we mentioned at the end of the last quarter, we have a couple of areas in particular, a couple of products where we've had very large demand increases year-over-year. We highlighted G3600 engines for gas compression in North America, and we also talked about large mining trucks. Those are the two areas that we are work – that we're struggling with a bit and working with our suppliers to be able to meet the very large increases on a percent basis in demand. Keep in mind, both of those products came off a very low base in 2016. So we're working with our suppliers to meet the increased demand that we've seen this year, won't really comment on next year in terms of – I don't want to quantify that for next year, but we are working with our suppliers to ensure that we satisfy what we believe will be customer demand moving forward.
Jerry Revich - Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC:
Okay. And then separately, on dealer inventories, you folks have – with your dealers taken out over $6 billion of inventory out of the channel. I'm wondering what's your view of normalized level of dealer inventory. So, Amy, if you go back to normalized months of supply basis, what level of increase in dealer inventory should we be thinking about off of these trough levels here?
Amy A. Campbell - Caterpillar, Inc.:
Yeah, I mean, Jerry, as you know, it's difficult to predict dealer inventories precisely. And certainly, the dealers control their inventory decisions and where they want to put inventory at. I think there is also, as we think out over the next few quarters and the demand, the end-user demand, which is where most of our efforts are going to be focused certainly in the fourth quarter, and then we'll have to see how the first half of 2018 plays out. So I think it's difficult and probably not appropriate to forecast where dealer inventory is going to land. As I talked about three-and-a-half to four months of sales is where we have normally worked with our dealers given our availability and supply chains to target dealer inventory. We do believe there's opportunity to bring that down some with our focus on lean and reducing lead times. But I'd say even with that, dealer inventories are probably a little bit lower than the dealers would like them to be and we'd like them to be. So over time, and I think it all depends on where end-user demand goes and where the market goes, so those are kind of decisions and numbers that move with a lot of different moving variables, where we sit right now at the end of the third quarter, dealer inventory levels are at a lower level than we've normally targeted, but exactly how much dealer inventory there is to bring back, I think, is just difficult to estimate.
Jerry Revich - Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC:
Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question today is coming from Jamie Cook. Jamie, your line is live. Please announce your affiliation, then pose your question.
Jamie L. Cook - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC:
Hi. Good morning. Credit Suisse. I guess two questions. I mean, Jerry just asked the question on sort of the supply chain. But from talking to the dealers too, they seem to think some of the issues isn't just the supply chain, it's Cat's not willing to really ramp production. So can you just talk about sort of lead times by product line? Where the biggest bottlenecks are and just sort of do we think these issues could start to work through – could work – could be more favorable in 2018 versus where we were in 2017? And then I guess my second question, Amy, I understand you guys don't want to talk about 2018 (40:37) in terms of at least the top line, which we can make our own assumptions there. But if you look at the back half of the year, your run rating $3.15 (40:42) earnings. So is there anything sort of unusual items that we should think about that could impact incremental margins in 2018? On the positive, I'm assuming you'd be getting savings from restructuring. Any other one-time things you could point out that could help – at least help us think about 2018 assuming we make our own top line decisions?
Donald James Umpleby - Caterpillar, Inc.:
Hi, Jamie. It's Jim again. Well, certainly, Cat is willing to ramp up production. There's no issue there. I think the only product that we really have an issue in terms of our ability to meet demand is G3600 engines from a manufacturing capacity perspective. All the other issues that we're dealing with have to do with supplier capacity. So there's no reluctance on our part to ramp up production to meet demand, and we do believe we have enough manufacturing capacity to meet what we see in terms of demand for the next few years. So really, it's a matter of working with our suppliers. A lot of this is an industry problem. It's not just us. As I'm sure you've learned through your research that a number of our competitors are dealing with the same kinds of issues with the supply base. So again, we're working that hard and believe that we're seeing improvements and will continue to see improvements on that front. In terms of visibility for next year, again we decided not to give a top line estimate for 2018 at this time. I really want to keep the team focused on executing our strategy. In terms of your question on margins, we will continue to make targeted investments to grow our business in the long term. So we've talked about some of the investments at Investor Day, whether they be in our digital capabilities, in various products. So again, we will be making targeted investments moving forward. Amy, I don't know if you want to add to that at all.
Amy A. Campbell - Caterpillar, Inc.:
Yeah, I think probably just a couple other – Jim had can of a high level – a couple other maybe small points to think about as you think about 2018. We do look at the competitive pricing situation. We talked about it all year. We don't think it's changed. We continue to think that pricing will be very competitive as we move into 2018. And exactly what does that translate to dollars, we're not ready to have a forecast for, but that is something we're keeping our eye on. Material costs, we've started to see those turn negative especially due to steel prices. And while our teams continue to work on redesign and other supply chain actions to bring down material costs, we do see steel costs, the material costs as we move in 2018 to be a headwind. And then I think the big tailwind that's out there is short-term incentive compensation expense we're accruing at a rate of $1.4 billion this year. A more normal payout is probably closer to $800 million to $850 million. So there's a little bit of a nice tailwind there. But as Jim alluded to, we are going to continue to make targeted investments, work towards delivering our margins that we showed at Investor Day, but making sure that we're making the long-term investments that we need to make to grow profitably over the long term.
Jamie L. Cook - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC:
Okay, thank you. That's helpful. I'll get back in queue. Nice quarter.
Donald James Umpleby - Caterpillar, Inc.:
Thank you.
Amy A. Campbell - Caterpillar, Inc.:
Thanks.
Bradley M. Halverson - Caterpillar, Inc.:
Thanks.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question today is coming from David Raso. David, your line is live. Please announce your affiliation, then pose your question.
David Raso - Evercore ISI:
Hi, Evercore ISI. Just trying to level set the look at 2017 just so we know where we're going from in 2018. A clarification, when you look at total company revenue guidance, you're right that implies the fourth quarter at $11.4 billion. But then when you look at your business segment guidance, it implies the fourth quarter is more like $12.4 billion. And I'm just trying to make sure we level set what we're thinking about for the fourth quarter, there's obviously an extra billion dollars with a reasonable incremental margin and could add another $0.35, $0.40 to 2017. So can we just clarify why the gap in those two guidances?
Amy A. Campbell - Caterpillar, Inc.:
Yeah. I think the gap, David, honestly it just really has to do with rounding. So we thought about putting ranges in there. We stuck with kind of a single number for each one of the three segments. We will likely have a little bit higher shipments in E&T just due to normal seasonality of solar shipments. But I think, generally, when you look with that exception, you look at the three segments, sales and revenues about flat third quarter to fourth quarter.
David Raso - Evercore ISI:
I mean the business segment guidance does not imply that. That's all I'm making sure. I mean CI, you're right. It implies flat. But RI, you have it up almost $400 million and E&T up almost $600 million sequentially. And I'm just making sure we level set the revenues thought and then also I'm going to ask you about the margins just so we understand where we're exiting the year.
Amy A. Campbell - Caterpillar, Inc.:
So, David, why don't we come back to that? I'll have to look at the math. I don't know if it's the fact that it excludes the intercompany transfer, so we got intersegment sales that are excluded in those numbers.
David Raso - Evercore ISI:
Yeah, but your guidance is clear. It says excluding intersegment sales. So in that same vein then, for the margins for the year, again, just so we can level set everybody thinking about 2018 and all the puts and takes, how are we thinking about margins now for the year? I know there are prior comments about each segment. Can you update us on those?
Amy A. Campbell - Caterpillar, Inc.:
Yeah. I think if you think about margins for the year and maybe to level set, I think largely speaking the third quarter will be the high watermark. CI segment margin represents a little bit higher, 18.2% in the second quarter, 18.1% in the third quarter, but third quarter clearly the high watermark. Probably better to step back and look at kind of September year-to-date segment margin percent for all three segments. I think, generally speaking, Resource Industries, Energy & Transportation, segment margins for the full year should be pretty close to what they were September year-to-date, and that implies a little bit improvement in the fourth quarter for Energy & Transportation, and that's on those higher sales, just some leverage on those higher sales which we typically see in the fourth quarter for Energy & Transportation. And then Construction Industries, segment margin percentage is just down just slightly for the full year versus where we ended the third quarter, which then implies a softer fourth quarter than where we are year-to-date. And that's been driven by some of this price starting to come through that we've been talking about year-to-date. We did start to see price realization get less favorable towards the end of the third quarter, some material cost headwind, and we also started to see those get more unfavorable towards the end of the third quarter and then also some targeted investments the Construction Industries has. One of those, for one example, they just launched the next-gen excavator, an exciting product, that and many other things they've got in play driving some additional costs in the fourth quarter.
David Raso - Evercore ISI:
And I'm sorry. Just to clarify, on Resource Industries, it was the year-to-date is where we think the full year shall be or...
Amy A. Campbell - Caterpillar, Inc.:
Correct.
David Raso - Evercore ISI:
Okay. I mean, that does imply 8.7% in the fourth quarter just by revenues up sequentially. Should we expect RI margins to fall sequentially that much on up rev? Is there a mix issue or...?
Amy A. Campbell - Caterpillar, Inc.:
Well, they also have some material cost issues, and they've got a fair number of – their R&D expenses are also increasing in the fourth quarter for some pilot products they're sending out there. So they have some higher costs in the fourth quarter as well for some of their targeted investments.
David Raso - Evercore ISI:
All right. I appreciate it. Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question today is coming from Ann Duignan. Ann, your line is live. Please announce your affiliation, then pose your question.
Ann P. Duignan - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Yeah. Good morning. JPMorgan. My question is around – Jim, maybe it's a question for you, kind of more philosophical question. I mean if we look at the increase in your forecast by segment year-to-date, it reminds me of what we used to always say about Caterpillar is that it is not great at forecasting. Can you talk a little bit philosophically about how you do forecast demand? And should investors be concerned at all that, given that a lot of volume increases simply dealer inventories, is there anything different about the relationship with your dealers or the way you communicate with your dealers that investors should be concerned about going forward?
Donald James Umpleby - Caterpillar, Inc.:
Yeah, Ann, I don't think there's anything that investors should be concerned about. Obviously, our forecast is based upon a number of factors. It's certainly what we hear from our dealers. It's also what we monitor the industries. We have direct contact with customers. So we take into account a number of factors when we forecast demand.
Ann P. Duignan - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Okay. And then follow-up question is around – you mentioned pull forward of demand in China. Is there any pull forward of demand from your Canadian customers or dealers ahead of Tier 4 final in that region?
Amy A. Campbell - Caterpillar, Inc.:
Yeah. And I think if you look at – maybe I'll step back to your last question, if you look at 2017, Ann, and we can talk about China pull forward, we started the year thinking that the China industry, us and I think along with everyone would be up, but up, and I don't remember the number, 20%, 25%, I think something like that. We now think it will be more than double. So, that's been a huge driver of the strength this year as well as some other things. Canadian Tier 4, Ann, it's really difficult to know what the buying decisions of our customers are. We have Tier 3 and Tier 4 product ready to go. We have seen strong demand all year in Canada for construction equipment, and so I don't think there's anything of particular note there.
Ann P. Duignan - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Okay. I'll get back in line just in the interest of time. Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question today is coming from Ross Gilardi. Ross, your line is live. Please announce your affiliation, then pose your question.
Ross Gilardi - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Hey. Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Good morning, guys.
Amy A. Campbell - Caterpillar, Inc.:
Good morning, Ross.
Ross Gilardi - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Yeah, I just had a question on – first one on mining. You noted spare parts coming off a little bit into the second half. But obviously, it held up better than you originally thought. But can you talk a little more about what you're seeing on new equipment from mining customers? I mean is the demand recovery coming – becoming more pervasive? I think this year you've seen it in places like Russia and India for some smaller mining trucks, but I'm wondering now are you seeing demand for bigger new equipment in places like Western Australia and Chile. And what are you seeing on the new cyber (52:21) side of the business?
Amy A. Campbell - Caterpillar, Inc.:
Yeah. I don't have it really split out by product, Ross. I think your point is a good one. When it looks at actual shipments for Resource Industries, they really only started to be up slightly in the third quarter. That said, we have seen good order activity, I'd really say, across the board for most of our products in Resource Industries. And that strength has also broadly been around the globe. So whether it's been Australia, I think South Africa was the last to go into the downturn. They were the last to come out, but we started to see some strength there as well. I mean I think I only picked those two out. I think it really has been a fairly broad improvement for Resource Industries without anything particular to note of one area doing better than another.
Ross Gilardi - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Okay, thanks, Amy. And then I'm just curious about the large engines for oil and gas. I mean it sounds like you guys are really backed up there and have got some – I think some capacity constraints, is what you were suggesting. I'm just – do you have enough in backlog now essentially to carry you through a lot of 2018 in that area?
Amy A. Campbell - Caterpillar, Inc.:
If you look at – I mean we were talking about the G3600 engine specifically. And if you look at the backlog for that particular product, which is only a percentage of Energy & Transportation's backlog, we are taking orders well into next year for that product, but I think I would be hesitant to draw too much conclusions from that for the broader Energy & Transportation segment, which has many other industries and many other products in there as well. And in those cases, the backlog would not be completely filled out for next year.
Ross Gilardi - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Got it. Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question today is coming from Rob Wertheimer. Rob, your line is live. Please announce your affiliation, then pose your question.
Rob Wertheimer - Melius Research LLC:
Hi. It's Melius Research, and thank you. Just wanted to ask one more on production capacity. As you guys have ramped into this solid recovery, how do your internal indicators look on your progress on lean, on safety and quality? I mean are there any warning signs flashing like you might have seen back in 2004, 2005, 2006? And then Jim mentioned ample capacity, I think. I mean can you do up to prior peak levels and/or better as your production improves with the current production set or do you need to think about, if this continues another year or two, adding capacity? Thanks.
Donald James Umpleby - Caterpillar, Inc.:
Yeah, Rob. I'll answer your last question first. We certainly have enough manufacturing capacity to meet the demand that we see over the next few years. Again, our issues have been with suppliers, and we're working our way through that. And answer to your first question, no, we don't see warning signs in terms of safety, quality, lean. We're very pleased with our performance there and just had a number of dealer meetings, and all the feedback is very, very positive about our quality, so.
Rob Wertheimer - Melius Research LLC:
Great. Thanks.
Donald James Umpleby - Caterpillar, Inc.:
Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question today is coming from Andrew Casey. Andrew, your line is live. Please announce your affiliation, then pose your question.
Andrew M. Casey - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
Wells Fargo Securities. Good morning, everybody.
Amy A. Campbell - Caterpillar, Inc.:
Good morning, Andy.
Donald James Umpleby - Caterpillar, Inc.:
How are you?
Andrew M. Casey - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
A question – I wanted to go back to the margin performance. I know it's only one quarter, but compared to the longer term potential ranges that you outlined in September, Construction was above, E&T kind of within the range; Resource slightly beneath, even though volumes remain at really low levels. How should we look at the short-term performance in the context of the longer term potential? I mean you've kind of demonstrated that you can hit those margins on lower run rate revenue. Should we expect lower incrementals going forward as you reinvest in the growth initiatives or should we kind of view this as potential there might be upside?
Donald James Umpleby - Caterpillar, Inc.:
Yeah. Andy, it's Jim. And I think just to clarify, I believe the only one of our three primary segments that is in or above the ranges is Construction Industries. If you look at the third quarter in RI and in E&T as well, they're actually both below the ranges that we outlined at Investor Day and certainly the year-to-date's are as well. And maybe to answer your bigger question, our intent is to grow the company. And if in fact, we, CI as an example, were within that range or a bit above that range, our intent is to invest to grow as opposed to trying to just simply have higher margins every quarter. So we want to grow the business at a healthy margin rate, and that's really our focus. And also I'd caution you, we would expect to see some variation quarter to quarter. Some of our businesses are more lumpy than others. E&T and RI are more lumpy than CI, as an example. So we would expect to see margins jump around a bit due to mix and a whole variety of other issues. But again, our intent is to grow within our targeted ranges.
Andrew M. Casey - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
Okay. Thank you, Jim. And then a last one again on margin. Q4, a few different questions have asked this, but the margins are going down sequentially on a kind of flattish revenue. You identified price cost as one of the headwinds. Could you quantify that? Is it a couple of hundred million or even higher?
Amy A. Campbell - Caterpillar, Inc.:
So I mean price – I'm not going to qualify, Andy, price and material costs. They're both negative. The biggest of the three would actually be investments in these targeted initiatives that we have. We've got several things. We talked about this. We're connecting more assets. We've got some R&D programs, the launch of the next-gen excavator that we're excited about. And so the bigger of the three increases are these targeted investments that started to pick up towards the end of the third quarter, will roll into the fourth quarter and then roll into 2018 as well.
Andrew M. Casey - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
Okay.
Amy A. Campbell - Caterpillar, Inc.:
I think that's going to have to be the last question.
Operator:
Thank you. That was your last question for today.
Amy A. Campbell - Caterpillar, Inc.:
All right. Thanks, Kate.
Donald James Umpleby - Caterpillar, Inc.:
Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. This does conclude today's conference call. You may disconnect your phone lines at this time and have a wonderful day. Thank you for your participation.
Executives:
Amy A. Campbell - Caterpillar, Inc. D. James Umpleby - Caterpillar, Inc. Bradley M. Halverson - Caterpillar, Inc. Joseph E. Creed - Caterpillar, Inc.
Analysts:
Ross Gilardi - Bank of America Merrill Lynch David Raso - Evercore ISI Group Jamie L. Cook - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC Joel G. Tiss - BMO Capital Markets (United States) Nicole DeBlase - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc. Ann P. Duignan - JPMorgan Securities LLC Jerry Revich - Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Joseph John O'Dea - Vertical Research Partners LLC Seth Weber - RBC Capital Markets LLC Andrew M. Casey - Wells Fargo Securities LLC Steven Michael Fisher - UBS Securities LLC
Operator:
Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Caterpillar 2Q 2017 Results Conference Call. At this time, all participants have been placed on a listen-only mode, and we will open the floor for your questions and comments after the presentation. It is now my pleasure to turn the floor over to your host, Amy Campbell, Director of Investor Relations. Ma'am, the floor is yours.
Amy A. Campbell - Caterpillar, Inc.:
Thank you very much, Kate. Good morning and welcome, everyone, to our second quarter earnings call. I'm Amy Campbell, Caterpillar's Director of Investor Relations, and on the call today I'm pleased to have our CEO, Jim Umpleby; our Group President and CFO, Brad Halverson; and our Vice President of Finance Services, Joe Creed. Remember this call is copyrighted by Caterpillar and any use, recording or transmission of any portion of the call without the express written consent of Caterpillar is strictly prohibited. If you'd like a copy of today's call transcript, we'll be posting it in the Investor section of our caterpillar.com website. It will be in the section labeled Results Webcast. This morning we will be discussing forward-looking information that involves risks, uncertainties and assumptions that could cause our actual results to differ materially from the forward-looking information. The discussion of some of the factors that either individually or in the aggregate can make actual results differ materially from our projection can be found in our cautionary statements under Item 1A Risk Factors of our Form 10-K filed with the SEC in February of 2017. And it's also in our forward-looking statement language included in today's financial release. In addition, there's a reconciliation of non-GAAP measures that can also be found in this morning's release, and it's posted at caterpillar.com/earnings. We're going to start the call this morning with a few words from Jim, and then Brad will walk us through second quarter results and our revised outlook, and then we will return it back to Kate to begin the Q&A portion of the call. Jim?
D. James Umpleby - Caterpillar, Inc.:
Thank you, Amy. I'd like to start by congratulating our team on another impressive quarter. Our operational performance was excellent. As demand increased, we did a good job managing cost and improved profit margins. A number of our markets remain challenged, but there were improvements in a few of our key markets this quarter. Construction in China and gas compression in North America were highlights. Mining and oil related activities have come off recent lows and we're seeing improving demand for construction in most regions. Based on our solid year-to-date performance and current order and activity, we're raising the midpoint of our 2017 sales and revenue by $3.5 billion to $43 billion, which would represent an increase of 12% over 2016. We're also raising our 2017 outlook for adjusted profit per share from $3.75 to $5. We remain committed to our lean manufacturing journey to improve efficiencies and reduce lead times, and we continue to execute our restructuring plans to achieve a more competitive cost structure. We remain vigilant about product quality and will continue to invest in R&D to improve current and future products and solutions. In the second half of this year, we'll make targeted investments to improve competitiveness and drive long-term profitable growth. We'll continue investing to expand our digital capabilities and accelerate important product development programs. We're moving forward to ensure we're helping our customers harness the power of data and technology to be as productive and efficient as possible. Caterpillar already has the largest connected industrial fleet in the world. We have more than half a million assets connected today and intend to significantly increase our connected assets by year-end. I want to emphasize these are targeted investments in key initiatives, and we'll maintain a strong focus on controlling our structural costs moving forward. Before I turn it over to Brad to discuss the details of the quarter and the outlook, a quick update on our strategic planning committee. We've completed our review of the business, and I look forward to sharing our strategy at Investor Day on September 12 at our demonstration facility in Tinaja Hills, Arizona. With that, I'll turn it over to Brad to walk through the quarter.
Bradley M. Halverson - Caterpillar, Inc.:
Thanks, Jim. As Jim stated, the second quarter continued what has been a great start to 2017. Before I walk through the announcements for the quarter and the revised outlook, let's turn to slide four, and I will walk quickly through the headline numbers. Sales and revenues of $11.3 billion were up about 10% from the second quarter of last year. While many of our end markets are far off previous peaks, we are starting to see several markets recover, and demand for China construction and North America gas compressions remain strong. Sales were higher in all three primary product segments, led by Construction Industries, followed by Resource Industries, and then Energy and Transportation. Profit per share was up $0.42 from $0.93 to $1.35. We continued to execute on our restructuring plan which includes the closure and consolidation of more than 30 facilities. These actions are important to achieving the flexible cost structure required to remain profitable through the cycles. At the same time, we are thoughtfully preserving the capacity needed to meet future growth needs. As a result of restructuring actions, we incurred $169 million in restructuring costs in the quarter, $30 million more than in the second quarter of 2016. In the quarter, we also recognized a pre-tax gain of $85 million on the sale of our investment in IronPlanet. Adjusted profit per share was up $0.40 from $1.09 in the second quarter of 2016 to $1.49. Higher sales, including a favorable mix, were the primary drivers of the profit improvement. Improved price on lower variable manufacturing costs were about offset by higher period cost due to an increase to the short-term incentive compensation accrual that resulted from the upward revision to the outlook. Now let's turn to slide five. Second quarter operating profit was $1.251 billion as compared with $785 million in 2016, up $466 million. Operating profit pull-through in the quarter was nearly 50%. Positive changes to operating profit came from several areas. The largest increase to profit was a result of higher sales volume and favorable mix. All four geographic regions and all three primary product segments saw higher sales and revenues. However, increases to sales and revenues were largely concentrated in four end markets. China construction and North America gas compression continued to experience strength, and robust overhaul and maintenance activity drove higher aftermarket parts sales for both mining and well servicing equipment. Price improved $183 million in the quarter. The favorable change was largely due to Construction Industries as Resource Industries and Energy and Transportation price realization were about flat. Variable manufacturing costs were favorable $44 million, largely due to the favorable impact of period cost absorbed as inventories increased in the quarter in many of our factories to support higher production. As we ramp up production, we remain focused on lean principles, and we are working diligently to bring production up quickly but also efficiently. Material costs were about flat in the quarter. While our design and procurement teams continue to work on projects to lower material costs through redesign and resourcing, we expect higher steel cost to put pressure on material cost in the second half. So while period costs were higher by $237 million, in the quarter we accrued about $330 million more short-term incentive compensation for ME&T than the second quarter of last year. When exclude the higher STIP accrual, period costs were lower by about $80 million driven by restructuring and cost reduction actions over the past year that are focused on lowering the company's embedded cost structure. As we have weathered through the challenges of the last few years, maintaining a strong balance sheet has been a priority and we are continuing that focus. ME&T operating cash flow for the quarter was $2 billion, and is $3.6 billion year-to-date, both well above prior year comparables. ME&T debt-to-cap at the end of the quarter was 38.6%, well within our targeted range. We ended the quarter with $10.2 billion in enterprise cash, and in June the board approved an increase in our quarterly cash dividend which we expect will make 2017 the 24th year in a row of paying higher dividends to our shareholders. Now let's move on to discuss each of the segments, and we'll start with slide six. Construction Industry sales were up 11% to $4.9 billion. Higher sales volume to Asia Pacific and Latin America and favorable price realization contributed to the increase. Most of the sales increase in the quarter for Construction Industries was driven by what has continued to be strong end user demand in China for construction equipment, most notably excavators. Through the first half of the year, the 10 ton and above excavator industry in China was up about 130% from last year. Strength in China continues to be driven by government support for infrastructure and strong residential investment. Sales in China in the second quarter were better than we had expected, and we now expect demand in China to remain strong through the rest of the year. If you look at the chart at the top of the right-hand side of slide six, it shows China industry sales for 10 ton and above sized excavators from 2006 through 2017 forecast. You can see from the chart that while demand for 10 ton and above excavators is up significantly versus the last two years, it is still far below highs achieved earlier this decade. Continued strength in China is dependent on underlying demand, government support and accommodating credit conditions For Latin America, sales were higher due to an increase in end user demand across several South American countries as well as favorable dealer inventory changes. While we saw some regions improve in the quarter, Latin America, especially Brazil, remained challenged, and sales are still at very low levels. North America sales to end users were up and price realization improved. However, these were mostly offset by a drop in dealer inventory. North America dealers typically pull from inventory in the second quarter to support the strong selling season. However, this year the reduction in dealer inventory drawdown was greater than last year, resulting in an unfavorable impact to sale. As you can see in the chart on the bottom right-hand side of the slide, higher end user demand in North America was primarily driven by improved residential and non-residential construction. As the chart also shows, infrastructure spend in the U.S. has been stagnant for some time, and sales of construction equipment for infrastructure projects was down in the quarter as we have yet to see federal, state and local funding for road projects translate into higher sales. The United States is in need of infrastructure investment. Passage of a federal infrastructure bill would be positive for our country and our business. As expected, in the middle of the spring and summer selling season, the backlog for construction industries was down from the first quarter of 2017. However, the decrease this quarter of about $300 million was less than the first quarter to second quarter reductions in both 2015 and 2016 when the backlog went down by $1 billion and $900 million respectively. Order rates were strong in the quarter with all regions seeing an improvement from year ago. Let's move to slide seven. Construction Industries segment profit was favorable by about $350 million driven by favorable price realization and higher sales volume, including a favorable mix of products. Period costs were about flat as higher short-term incentive compensation expense was largely offset by restructuring and cost reduction actions. Construction Industries was an early adopter of our operating and execution model, and this focus has helped to improve their segment profitability. Segment profit margin in the quarter was 18.2%, an increase of almost 600 basis points from the second quarter of last year. Let's move to slide eight and Resource Industries. Continued strong demand for after-market parts to support overhauls and maintenance work combined with favorable changes to dealer inventories were the primary drivers of the $300 million increase in sales and revenues for Resource Industries; an increase of 21%. In order to call a recovery in mining, we have said that first the excess machine inventory in the mines would need to be worked off. Then demand for overhauls and maintenance would drive higher aftermarket part sales. And last, orders for new equipment would start to increase. The cycle is starting to play out. Utilization on trucks is up 4% from last year. The part fleet continues to come down, and for the fifth quarter in a row, part sales have increased to support rebuild and maintenance needs as well as higher utilization of fleets in the mines. And our order rates are improving. After four years of dealers reducing their inventories, for the second sequential quarter, dealer inventory held about flat. Sales increases and favorable dealer inventory changes were broad based across all regions. As you saw in the sales to user numbers that were released yesterday, RI sales to users were about flat in the quarter. However, we believe sales to users are a lagging indicator of industry trend. Order rates in the quarter were up more than double the second quarter of last year. The backlog for Resource Industries was up about $300 million from the end of the first quarter 2017, and Resource Industries was a significant part of the $3 billion increase in the backlog since the second quarter of last year. However, while Resource Industries has started to recover, sales volumes remain at historically low level. We'll move to slide nine and look at their operating performance. On improving sales with a focus on operational performance, Resource Industries delivered a solid quarter. Segment profit was $97 million, up $260 million from a loss of $163 million in 2016. The improvement in profit resulted from higher sales volume, including a favorable mix of products and lower period cost. Resource Industries continues to implement a number of restructuring actions to lower their breakeven point. These initiatives enabled them to deliver lower period cost in the quarter even after recognizing a large increase in short-term incentive compensation expense. Resource Industries incurred additional warranty expense of a little over $50 million in the quarter for a customer program we do not expect to repeat. Next we'll go through Energy and Transportation on slide ten. Sales were up $200 million or 5% in the quarter to $3.9 billion. Higher sales into oil and gas combined with higher industrial aftermarket sales were the primary drivers of the sales increase. Sales into power generation were about flat as a slight improvement in North America was mostly offset by weaknesses in other regions. Transportation sales decreased, largely due to lower demand for marine application. Sales into the rail industry were about flat. While the rail industry remains weak and the number of stored locomotives remains elevated, this was mostly offset in the quarter by an increase in rail services to support higher rail traffic. The chart on the right side of slide 10 shows the four-year history of U.S. rig counts and west Texas intermediate oil prices. The number of rigs in production has doubled from recent lows reached in May of 2016. U.S. oil production has increased accordingly. In the areas where we participate in the oil and gas market, the recent strength has largely been concentrated to well servicing and midstream gas compression applications. Demand for aftermarket parts to support overhaul and maintenance of well servicing fleets increased in the quarter, primarily to support rigs that are going back to work in the Permian Basin and other shale formations in Texas, Oklahoma and New Mexico where the cost of production and transportation is low enough to encourage investment despite recent oil price volatility. Midstream gas compression is having another good year as we support the continued buildout of North America's natural gas infrastructure. In addition, recent developments in the Permian in the last 12 months have had a higher concentration of natural gas than previous wells. This discovery has contributed to a higher demand for 3500 and 3600 reciprocating engines to support the midstream gas compression growth in that region. We move to slide 11; we'll look at the segment for Energy and Transportation. Energy and Transportation profit was up $98 million from $602 million to $700 million. This was largely attributable to higher sales volume, a favorable impact from cost absorption and improved material cost. Period cost increased in the quarter but were about flat after excluding higher short term incentive compensation expense. Before I move on to the outlook, a quick comment on financial products. Operating profit was down slightly due to the absence of the sale of securities at Cat Insurance Services. The portfolio remains healthy with past dues down 22 basis points in the second quarter of 2016 and write-offs were down $7 million. Used equipment prices continued to improve which helped, and the team delivered a solid quarter. We'll move to slide 12, and we'll cover the outlook. We announced this morning that we are raising the outlook for full year sales and revenues and profit per share. In April we provided an outlook for sales and revenues of $38 billion to $41 billion. As a result of strong operational performance in the first half, encouraging order rate, good economic indicators and a solid backlog, we are providing new guidance for sales and revenues in the range of $42 billion to $44 billion with a midpoint of $43 billion, up $3.5 billion from the prior outlook. At the midpoint of the sales and revenues range, we have raised the profit per share outlook to $3.50 per share and raised the adjusted profit per share outlook from $3.75 to $5. We'll move on to slide 13 and cover the sales outlook by segment. We now expect Construction Industries sales for the year to be up 10% to 15% versus the previous outlook of flat to up 5%. This is driven largely by higher end user demand in both China and North America. Order rates for Construction Industries have been strong through the first half of the year across most regions with an exception of the Middle East and Brazil which remain challenged. The backlog is also up significantly from the second quarter of 2016. We do expect sales in the second half of the year to be slightly lower than the first half. For Construction Industries, the second quarter is typically the strongest quarter of the year as construction activity and deliveries pick up to support the spring and summer construction season in the Northern Hemisphere. Fewer workdays due to holidays and vacations combined with the anticipation of colder weather typically drives sales lower in the second half. In China, on average for the last five years, over 55% of sales were realized in the first half of the year. For Resource Industries, we now expect sales to be up 20% to 25% for the full year versus the previous outlook of up 10% to 15%. While we expect aftermarket part sales to remain strong through the rest of the year as the number of parked trucks is reduced and the demand for overhauls declines, we expect the rate of growth to slow, and for part sales to be lower in the second half than the first. However, we expect this will be more than offset by an increase in new equipment sales. Energy and Transportation sales are forecasted to be up 5% to 10% for the year versus the previous outlook of about flat. We continue to see strong rebuild activity in well servicing for engines, transmission, pumps, and flow iron, and new equipment deliveries are expected to increase in the second half of the year. We also expect shipments to North America gas compression customers to be higher in the second half. Industrial, power generation and transportation are all expected to be about flat to slightly up. We move to slide 14. At the midpoint of the sales and revenue range, the new outlook for profit per share is $3.50 and the revised outlook for adjusted profit per share is $5. The increase in the profit outlook since April is largely the result of the improved forecast for sales and revenues and disciplined cost control partially offset by an increase in short term incentive compensation expense. As compared to 2016 at the midpoint of the range, the revised outlook reflects higher sales and revenues of about $4.5 billion or 12%, and an increase in adjusted profit per share of $1.58. The increase in adjusted profit per share versus 2016 is largely driven by higher sales volume of $4.5 billion and the associated margin on those sales. Favorable price, while we do not expect the same level of price favorability in the second half of the year, we still expect favorable price realization for the full year in a range of 0.5% to 1%. Favorable impact from period cost absorbed as inventories are expected to increase to support higher production level. These favorable items will be partially offset by higher short term incentive compensation expense of about $1 billion. Material costs are now expected to be about flat for the full year. While geopolitical uncertainty and commodity volatility continue to be risks to the outlook, our outlook assumes that oil prices remain bound within the recent range of volatility, markets stay resilient to geopolitical uncertainties, and China remains supportive of growth. However, changes to any of these variables as well as others could impact our sales and revenues outlook for the full year. We'll turn to slide 15 and wrap up. Operational performance for the year has been strong with second quarter operating profit pull-through of nearly 50%. While a number of our end markets remain challenged, we see strong demand in deliveries for China construction and North America gas compression equipment. And demand for aftermarket parts has increased to support overhaul and maintenance activity for well servicing, gas compression, and mining equipment. Orders and end user demand for North American construction equipment also improved in the quarter. We continue to be focused on lean, product quality, and investing in the business for future growth. The balance sheet remains strong, and we delivered $2 billion in ME&T operating cash flow in the quarter. Given year to date performance and our confidence in the second half of the year, we are raising the outlook for both sales and revenues and profit per share. With that, I'll turn it back to Amy.
Amy A. Campbell - Caterpillar, Inc.:
Thanks, Brad. And Kate, I think we're ready to move on to the Q&A portion of the call.
Operator:
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, the floor is now open for questions. And our first question today is coming from Ross Gilardi. Please announce your affiliation, then pose your question.
Ross Gilardi - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Hey, good morning. Bank of America. Morning, guys.
Amy A. Campbell - Caterpillar, Inc.:
Morning, Ross.
Ross Gilardi - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Hey Amy, on page six of the press release, it shows that Cat just increased its global flexible workforce for 3500 workers in the second quarter, and I think you're up about 35% year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter. And you haven't had a seasonal working cap workforce build like that since 2010. So first of all, where did you hire more people by business and geography? And then second, if you are ramping flexible employment, why are you still implying the 20% decline in second half earnings versus first half? I recognize all the puts and takes you just provided, but the workforce changes would perhaps suggest otherwise.
Amy A. Campbell - Caterpillar, Inc.:
Yes, so it's a great question. I think it's certainly a great change in where we've been over the last several years, is bringing back workforce. To your first question, where has it been, Ross, it's really been around the globe. Certainly China, sales are up. Brad mentioned industry up over 100% this year versus last. So that's been a significant growth in workforce. Lafayette, this is for the higher demand for the 3500 and 3600 engine. And beyond that, we're hiring in other factories around the globe, here in East Peoria. We're bringing people back to work in Pontiac. It's been pretty broad-based. As far as the second half versus the first half, I think if you look at the comps for sales in the second half of the year versus the first half, they're actually up just about $1 billion so we are implying higher production. Production is higher in the second half than it was in the first half. So we can talk through some of the puts and takes on profitability, but we do expect production to be up in the second half of the year.
Ross Gilardi - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Thank you.
Amy A. Campbell - Caterpillar, Inc.:
Do you have a follow-up?
Operator:
Thank you.
Ross Gilardi - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Yeah. I also just wanted to ask on your capital spending, I think Cat's spending like 50% of depreciation right now, and as we just discussed, you're starting to hire people. When are you going to start reinvesting in the business again? And are there any areas of Caterpillar right now that are just structurally tight?
Amy A. Campbell - Caterpillar, Inc.:
Yeah, I think if you're talking about fixed assets, bricks and mortar and machines, we continue our restructuring plan. We think at the end of those plans we'll have the capacity we need to meet our future growth needs. So we don't foresee that we have fixed capacity challenges. Really what we're seeing right now is we bring production back, we're coming back from pretty low levels. Jim talked about where we're investing in the business in the second half of the year, is through some targeted investments in key initiatives to advance our market of competitiveness, in digital to advance some product programs that we have. So that's where we see the second half investments back in the business scene.
Ross Gilardi - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Thank you.
Amy A. Campbell - Caterpillar, Inc.:
And that is driving some of the second half versus first half profitability.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question today is coming from David Raso. Please announce your affiliation, then pose your question.
David Raso - Evercore ISI Group:
Hi. Evercore ISI. I mean, this year I would say the most interesting thing has been the Construction Industry margins. I just wanted to get your perspective on how should we think about those margins going forward? Everybody has been sort of thinking about what normalized earnings could be for Cat mid cycle, and I'd say probably the biggest surprise this year has been those margins. Can you help us a bit with – you made the comment on mix. Is it geographic? Is it product? Just given the high level of margins we've seen so far this year.
Amy A. Campbell - Caterpillar, Inc.:
Yeah, so for Construction Industries, and I think your point is a good one. They had impressive margins. Brad pointed that out, both in the first and the second quarter, up 600 basis points from a year ago. In the second half of the year, we do expect some headwinds to profitability. North America continues to be very competitive from a pricing perspective. We expect that to put pressure on Construction Industries' price realization in the second half. We still expect them to be favorable, slightly, but not as favorable as we've seen in the first half of the year. Say through the first half of 2017, we've clawed back the price that we lost in 2016, and we do expect some price pressures in the back half of the year, especially in North America. Across all three of the primary product segments, we do expect material cost headwinds. We delivered about $50 million of material cost improvement in the first quarter. It was about flat this quarter. We expect that to reverse to about a $50 million headwind in the back half of the year. That's across all three segments. And Construction Industries also, and the other two primary segments, have some key initiatives they're planning on spending in the second half year. That all said, though, David, we would expect the segment margins for Construction Industries for the full year to be about 200 basis points than they were last year.
David Raso - Evercore ISI Group:
But if – I mean, last year they were only 10.5%. You're running at 16%, 17% year to date. I mean, are you really implying margins that low? You're basically implying single digit margins in the back half of the year for CI?
Amy A. Campbell - Caterpillar, Inc.:
Well, your numbers are a little different than ours. We add back the inner segment sales. But yeah, there is a pretty significant margin erosion that's implied in the outlook in the back half of the year for price, for higher material cost, and then to reflect these investments that we expect to make in the business.
David Raso - Evercore ISI Group:
Yeah, okay. I hear you. I'm just trying to understand structurally if we try to look out to 2018 and 2019. I appreciate the detail in the answer, but just trying to think about obviously setting up a little bit to September analyst meeting. When you think of the profitability of this segment now versus last cycle, for example, again, how much should we take to heart this first half run rate margin to some degree, even with the second half being lower? I'm just trying to get perspective how you're thinking about the segment moving forward.
Amy A. Campbell - Caterpillar, Inc.:
Yeah, so and as you said, we'll certainly be discussing more on all three of the segments' margins as we get to the Analyst Day in September. Construction Industries was an early adopter of our operating execution model focused on OPEC profit generation. A 200 basis point improvement from last year is certainly something to be proud of. And they have – they continue to restructure. We've got Gosselies and Aurora that still we don't expect to see those improvements until 2019. Maybe we'll see some of that flow through in 2018. So I think we certainly see growth from here for Construction Industries' margin.
David Raso - Evercore ISI Group:
All right. I appreciate it. Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question today is coming from Jamie Cook. Please announce your affiliation then pose your question.
Jamie L. Cook - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC:
Hi. Good morning. Credit Suisse. I guess two questions. One on the resource side. The margins were a little lighter than I thought but then you mentioned you had $50 million of one-time warranty expense so it was actually more comparable to the first quarter. So given your increase in resource sales, how are we thinking about profitability and sort of the restructuring actions layering into 2017 and 2018? And then my second question, how much of your forecast in fiscal year 2017 is being hindered by your inability to ramp production? I mean, one of the things that dealers talk about is lead times extending. So if you could just sort of comment on that as well. Thanks.
Amy A. Campbell - Caterpillar, Inc.:
Sure, yep. Thanks, Jamie. So RI profitability. I think if you step back, we do expect sales to be slightly higher in the second half, as Brad mentioned. Part sales will come down a little bit, but that'll be more than offset by shipping out of the backlog for new equipment orders. That said, and I think if you neutralize for that higher warranty expense, we expect first half and second half profitability to be pretty similar on slightly higher sales in the second half. And that's driven by the steel cost pressures that we expect to see as we talked about in the last quarter. Resource Industries has a slightly less favorable geographic mix of product sales in the second half, and then also the investments that they're making to advance market competitiveness in digital and product programs.
Jamie L. Cook - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC:
Sorry, Amy. To be clear, the profit dollar similar, that's including the warranty expense in the second quarter? When you said second half versus first half, because that's a big difference.
Amy A. Campbell - Caterpillar, Inc.:
Yeah. Plus or minus. Not giving exact numbers, we see the first half and the second half profitability to be pretty similar.
Jamie L. Cook - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC:
Okay. And then sorry just lead times, capacity constraints, how much of your forecast is being hurt by that?
Amy A. Campbell - Caterpillar, Inc.:
Yeah, I would say we don't see the forecast really being much impacted by capacity constraints, although as you mentioned, we have seen lead times go out. If you look at several of our products, the 3600 large mining trucks, demand for those products really shot up overnight. The large mining trucks now we expect for production to be triple what it was in 2016. Production for the 3600 has more than quadrupled from a year ago, and again, both of those products were at pretty low level so it does take time to get that demand back, especially through the supply chain and getting the workforce back to work. And we also have, as we're restructuring and seeing some really elevated level of demand in China for excavators and demand come back in North America for earth moving equipment with the restructuring of Gosselies. While we've put those products on managed distribution, we do believe that we're getting product to the dealers to get to customer sales. However, we have seen a month of sales for dealer inventory come down, and it's a little lower right now than we would like it to be.
Jamie L. Cook - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC:
Okay. That's helpful. Thank you. I'll get back in queue.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question today is coming from Joel Tiss. Please announce your affiliation then pose your question.
Joel G. Tiss - BMO Capital Markets (United States):
Hi. Bank of Montreal. I just wondered if you could give us a little setup. I'm not asking for a forecast on China for 2018. Seems like everything's a little buoyant because of the election this year and I just wondered if you could frame how do you think about 2018 a little bit?
Amy A. Campbell - Caterpillar, Inc.:
Well, I think it's early for us to be thinking about 2018, but maybe I'll give a little color to where we're at for China excavator sales. If you look at the chart that Brad had in his presentation for 10 ton and above excavators, this year we expect the industry to sell about 55,000 excavators, up from about 30,000 excavators last year, so pretty significant increase. We think – I think it is too early to forecast 2018. We do think that that is slightly above normal replacement demand for excavators, 10 ton and above excavators in China which we believe to be somewhere between 45,000 to 50,000. So we're probably this year just slightly above that normal replacement demand. Does that answer your question, Joel?
Joel G. Tiss - BMO Capital Markets (United States):
Yes.
Amy A. Campbell - Caterpillar, Inc.:
Okay.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question today is coming from Nicole DeBlase. Please announce your affiliation then pose your question.
Nicole DeBlase - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Yeah. It's Deutsche Bank. Good morning, guys.
Amy A. Campbell - Caterpillar, Inc.:
Good morning, Nicole.
Nicole DeBlase - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
So you provided some detail around what you expect for resource and construction profitability. I know previously you had said kind of flattish margins for E&T. Is that still the case, or has that changed?
Amy A. Campbell - Caterpillar, Inc.:
So for Energy and Transportation what we would expect for margins is for first half profitability and second half profitability to be pretty similar.
Nicole DeBlase - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
And when you say profitability, just to confirm, is that the absolute EBIT dollars or is that the margin percentage?
Amy A. Campbell - Caterpillar, Inc.:
That would be the margin percent, the margin percent.
Nicole DeBlase - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Okay. Perfect. That's helpful. Thanks. And secondly, going back to the China question. How would you characterize China inventories right now on the construction side? Is there still further restocking to come, or do you think that that process is pretty much complete?
Amy A. Campbell - Caterpillar, Inc.:
No, we think that there's still dealer restocking to come. So if you look at dealer inventories in China, we probably typically target about 2.5 months of sales. China's target for dealer inventory months of sale is a little lower than the rest of the world. They have less variety in the configurations they sell. We are about, quite a bit lower than that at the end of the second quarter, even though we did take dealer inventory up some. So we do expect to continue to be rebuilding dealer inventory levels through the back half of the year. But as I mentioned, certainly in China, the strong selling season for end users is in the first half.
Nicole DeBlase - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Understood. Thanks. I'll pass it on.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question today is coming from Ann Duignan. Please announce your affiliation then pose your question.
Ann P. Duignan - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Hi. Good morning. JPMorgan.
Amy A. Campbell - Caterpillar, Inc.:
Morning, Ann.
Ann P. Duignan - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Morning. Can we talk a little bit more about these targeted investments and initiatives that are important to your future competitiveness? I mean, I thought that this was a pretty interesting portion of the press release and if you could give us some more examples of what exactly these investments are going to be, and what you mean by technology updates to your products.
Amy A. Campbell - Caterpillar, Inc.:
So it's pretty broad-based and I'd say it's pretty difficult to boil it down to a few bullet points, but I'll give you some highlights. One of the significant areas of focus is a bold goal for our business to connect more assets. So we believe we have the largest connected industrial fleet in the world at 530,000 assets. And we have a bold goal to go out and connect 100,000 more by the end of the year. We don't know if we'll get there, but that's certainly where we're moving the teams towards. And that requires the expense of buying the boxes and the labor cost to connect those assets. And certainly, that will benefit both our customers and us as we bring back that data and learn ways and use the data and the power of data to develop solutions to lower the cost and improve the productivity for customers. So that's one area. Another would be expanding our e-distribution channel and the different solutions we have out there for customers. That's another area we're focused on. And then we're also spending money to advance some of our product programs, pull money into this year or push those product programs and make sure they have successful launches in the back half of the year.
Bradley M. Halverson - Caterpillar, Inc.:
Ann, this is Brad Halverson. Maybe just another comment about how we use that language. We use that language because that's how we're operating internally. We have now been through four years of a downturn. It's been hard on us. We've taken significant restructuring activities and we like where our cost structure is at and where our balance sheet is at. And so using our operating and execution model, Jim is really driving continued focus on cost reduction across the support areas, and as we increase period cost, you'll see that there'll be very targeted in areas that offer the most long term value for the company consistent with kind of the pools of OPACC we see out there in the future. And this is a little example in the second half of this year where we're going to take an opportunity to do a little bit of that where we think there's a lot of value and keep the lid on the other costs that we have in the company.
Ann P. Duignan - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Brad or Jim, do you think it has impacted your competitiveness, the fact that you have been so focused on restructuring and cost reductions and some of your competitors are well ahead of you in terms of IT initiatives? And I'll leave it there. Thank you.
Bradley M. Halverson - Caterpillar, Inc.:
Yeah, I'd say, Ann, actually I think not because this time I've been in a career here at Cat a long time. Typically, we have reductions in areas that are easy to find. So we reduce R&D or reduce other things. In this downturn, if you look at our cost reduction, it's been highly targeted to areas that are not kind of future value. They're areas of efficiency and consolidation and support cost. We have really increased spending in many of the growth areas. We've protected R&D by and large, and we've protected things like digital spending. So we've taken an entirely different approach in this downturn in terms of where we took cost out and what cost we protected. So I would say it's different than we would have historically done.
Ann P. Duignan - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Okay. I appreciate the color. I'll get back in line. Thanks.
Amy A. Campbell - Caterpillar, Inc.:
Thanks, Ann.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question today is coming from Jerry Revich. Please announce your affiliation then pose your question.
Jerry Revich - Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC:
Hi. Good morning. It's Goldman Sachs.
Amy A. Campbell - Caterpillar, Inc.:
Morning, Jerry.
Jerry Revich - Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC:
Morning. I'm wondering if you could say more about the contribution of the operating and execution business model in construction industries so far, what's been the impact on OPEC or margins, however you can frame that for us. And how far are we in that journey for construction at this point?
Amy A. Campbell - Caterpillar, Inc.:
Well, I mean, I think it's been extremely impactful to Construction Industries' margins. You can go back several years and look at where their segment margin percents were and see that they've come quite a ways on down sales. So sales in 2017 still probably – I don't have the numbers in front of me, but 10% to 15% off of peak levels of sales volumes and much higher levels of segment margin. They've driven higher OPACC, just raw dollar OPACC over that timeframe, and that said, as all of the segments have worked on their operating and execution and OPACC improvement initiatives, Construction Industries still has projects lined up and improvements they expect to make in their OPACC.
Jerry Revich - Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC:
And, Amy, on that last point, are we closer to the seventh inning? Or can you just frame that within construction specifically in terms of the number of projects in front of us?
Amy A. Campbell - Caterpillar, Inc.:
Yeah. I think we'll give more color to that at the Analyst Day in September. But I think it's fair to say that they still have a pretty healthy sized list of profit improvements that they're focused on driving through their business.
Jerry Revich - Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC:
Okay. And, Amy, as you folks build out the connected fleet and perhaps we can get more precision on how much (47:27) inventories are required, how are you folks thinking about required dealer inventories in this cycle compared to the last cycle? You spoke about the development in China, but I'm wondering how are you thinking about what's the right level of inventories and months of supply globally now and how that might be different versus the last cycle.
Amy A. Campbell - Caterpillar, Inc.:
Yeah, I think that we have probably always held around a target of 3.5 to 4 months of sales of dealer inventory. I think if we're honest, we probably typically struggle to get there, and we're – would end the year a little north of four. I think that's about where we ended 2016. I don't know that our target for months of sales of dealer inventory has changed that much, but as we have seen volume come back pretty quickly in a few of our end markets, we have seen that months of sales drop below our 3.5 target.
Jerry Revich - Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC:
Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question today is coming from Joseph O'Dea. Please announce your affiliation then pose your question.
Joseph John O'Dea - Vertical Research Partners LLC:
Hi, good morning. It's Vertical Research.
Amy A. Campbell - Caterpillar, Inc.:
Morning, Joe.
Joseph John O'Dea - Vertical Research Partners LLC:
First question is just on rebuild and overhaul activity in both mining and upstream oil and gas. Just to understand of what your visibility is on current levels of demand and then what a stepdown potentially looks like. And so just to kind of get an appreciation for how significant a stepdown you could see in aftermarket in mining in the back half of the year, and then do you see that at more kind of a sustainable level? Same thing for oil and gas. Do you see a big uptick in activity there? How long that persists? And then what kind of a headwind you face when that maybe comes down a little bit?
Amy A. Campbell - Caterpillar, Inc.:
Yeah. I'll handle each one of those separately, Joe. So for mining, we do see part sales come down in the second half of the year. I wouldn't say that it's that significant. And I don't have a forecast for 2018 to give you of where we think part sales will be over time. We do expect some decline in part sales second half and first half, but it's not a double-digit number, but it is coming down. For oil and gas or really where we're seeing, as we talked about, the aftermarket parts demand is primarily in well servicing, and it has primarily been, as Brad talked about, in the Permian Basin and in other shale formations in that region, other parts of Texas, New Mexico, Oklahoma, where the cost of oil production is still encouraging investment. We haven't seen demand to date come down in those regions. We haven't seen a lot of increase in demand in other shale formations outside of that area. So without providing an outlook for 2018 or kind of guiding where I think we could go from here, certainly the oil price drives that. A significant stepdown would probably put some pressure on where we're seeing some strength today. But if we would start to see oil prices get back up over $50 and start to see some of the pipeline build-out that we need to help transportation, a few of the other shale formations, we could start to see those pick up. So I think it's really too early to call kind of where we go much out past the end of 2017.
Joseph John O'Dea - Vertical Research Partners LLC:
I appreciate it. And then on resources specifically and the OE order side of things, I think you've commented on needing to see stabilization in commodity prices to encourage continued spend or growth in spend on replacement. We have seen some stabilization in some key commodities at levels that are well above where they were a year ago. So I guess just in terms of, are current commodity prices supportive enough and how long do you think we need to see a pattern of stabilization before that encourages a little bit more spend?
Amy A. Campbell - Caterpillar, Inc.:
Yeah. So I do think – what I would say is if you look at the order rate in the second quarter, Brad mentioned that it was more than double from second quarter of last year. So I think without having the buying decisions of all of the miners in front of me, it's probably fair to conclude that at current commodity prices it's driving demand for investment. I think what's probably more important, and we've stressed this throughout the entire downside of mining, is that mine production continues to really increase or in some commodities stay about flat. So it's really an issue of making sure they have healthy operating equipment in the mines and when do they need to start to invest capital to keep their equipment running and functioning. So I think commodity prices right now are supportive. They need to stay supportive. If we were to see change materially, that could change the story. But where they are right now, we are seeing healthy demand for mining equipment
Joseph John O'Dea - Vertical Research Partners LLC:
Okay. Thanks very much.
Amy A. Campbell - Caterpillar, Inc.:
But I will stress, but off of very low levels.
Joseph John O'Dea - Vertical Research Partners LLC:
Sure.
Amy A. Campbell - Caterpillar, Inc.:
So last year, very low levels, but it's still at pretty low levels historically.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question today is coming from Seth Weber. Please announce your affiliation then pose your question.
Seth Weber - RBC Capital Markets LLC:
Hey. Good morning. It's RBC. Just kind of following up on that last question, Amy, and your answer, I mean, given the kind of improving environment in Resource Industries, the commodities environment, et cetera, what do you think you need to see to get positive pricing in Resource Industries here going forward? Pricing was still negative. Is there something that's happening that's just causing pricing to continue to be tough?
Amy A. Campbell - Caterpillar, Inc.:
Yeah. Well, I think it's exactly my last comment, which is industry volumes still are at extremely low levels. So manufacturers have a lot of capacity and are trying to fill up their factories and earn and win every deal to do that. These are certainly very attractive both from the original sale and the after-market parts stream deals to win. So I think we really won't start to see price appreciation in Resource Industries until we start to see constraints in capacity amongst us and our competitors.
Seth Weber - RBC Capital Markets LLC:
Okay. And if I could just ask a follow up. In response to an earlier question I heard some mention about supply chain. Can you talk about whether you're seeing any kind of pockets of pressure on the supply chain or how you're feeling about the supply chain here in this increasing demand environment? Thank you
Amy A. Campbell - Caterpillar, Inc.:
Yeah. So, as I mentioned, we are for a few products bringing production up quickly off of very low levels. It's difficult to get both – get the factories back to work and get the workforce in and trained. And so that is taking a little time. On top of that, we've had higher demand for aftermarket parts which also puts demand into the supply chain. I think we just think it takes time. We hope to be worked through most of those issues by the end of the year, and it is largely workforce and supply chain that's driving – that's, I'd say, setting the pace for how quickly we can bring production up.
Seth Weber - RBC Capital Markets LLC:
And that's mostly on construction on the supply chain bottleneck?
Amy A. Campbell - Caterpillar, Inc.:
I would say that we have, depending on the product, we have supply chain issues we're working across the product line.
Seth Weber - RBC Capital Markets LLC:
Okay. Thanks. I appreciate the answers. Thanks, everybody.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question today is coming from Andrew Casey. Please announce your affiliation then pose your question
Andrew M. Casey - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
Wells Fargo Securities. Good morning. Question on the Construction Industry 200 basis point margin increase for the year. Back to David's question that it really does imply a pretty sharp drop-off in the second half. And it's still a little bit confusing to me based on the commentary you gave about inner segment sale impacting that. Because if I look at the first half, you had $54 million or thereabouts in inner segment sales, and that's kind of small in the scope of the $9 billion first half sales reported.
Amy A. Campbell - Caterpillar, Inc.:
Yep.
Andrew M. Casey - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
Is there an acceleration in the second half inner segment, or is – how should we look at that?
Amy A. Campbell - Caterpillar, Inc.:
No, it's not – I think from David's question, if I look at the margins that I referenced, he said single digits. I'm not quite to single digit numbers, so I was just clarifying his math. I think we were both probably in about the same place. I think the question stands though, we do see softer segment margin percent in the back half of the year for Construction Industries. Sales are down a little bit. That drives some of it, which is not unusual from a historical perspective for Construction Industries' sales to be down in the back half of the year. They do expect some price pressure, especially in North America. They expect some material cost pressures for steel and then some higher period cost spend to support these investments.
Joseph E. Creed - Caterpillar, Inc.:
This is Joe Creed. I think we're focused on expanding margins in the segments and we have to be careful not to look at quarter-to-quarter margins in each of the segments because they can fluctuate from time to time inside the quarter. But on an annual basis, we're committed to the improvement.
Amy A. Campbell - Caterpillar, Inc.:
Yeah, and so a 200 basis point improvement for the year certainly I think is something to denote impressive.
Andrew M. Casey - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
Okay. All right. Thank you very much.
Amy A. Campbell - Caterpillar, Inc.:
Yep.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question today is coming from Steven Fisher. Please announce your affiliation then pose your question.
Steven Michael Fisher - UBS Securities LLC:
Thanks. It's UBS. Just to continue that discussion there, you mentioned a number of times the competitive price pressure you expect in the second half in construction, and you just clarified it's North America. Just curious, why will the competitive price pressure be more intense in the second half relative to the first half? Why wasn't that price pressure there in the first half?
Amy A. Campbell - Caterpillar, Inc.:
I'd say the price pressure has been there, but we expect it to continue. And we expect, I'd say our competitors, as we continue to see the strong dollar work against us from a competitive standpoint to put additional price pressure in the back half of the year, Steve.
Steven Michael Fisher - UBS Securities LLC:
Okay. And this may be a longer question than the last minute of the call, but what do you think is the most likely path to noticeably higher construction equipment sales in North America? I mean, in the past you've talked about 3% GDP growth driving fleet expansion. Is it really just needing stimulus at this point to get the infrastructure piece going? Or is it waiting for a replacement cycle? Or is it an expansion of the rental channel? What's going to get that North America to kind of break out?
Amy A. Campbell - Caterpillar, Inc.:
Yeah, I mean, I think it's a question that will be discussed at the Analyst Day in September. But I think if you go back to the chart on Construction Industries sales that's in the presentation pack, I think what you'll see is we have seen healthy growth and non-residential and residential spend, although we still think from a residential perspective we're not keeping up with population growth in the U.S. But what has, I'd say, disappointed for the last several years has been a lack of growth in infrastructure investment, which is really, I think, the area that looks prime to need some more investment and some more growth.
Steven Michael Fisher - UBS Securities LLC:
Okay. Thank you.
Amy A. Campbell - Caterpillar, Inc.:
All right. Thanks, Steve.
Amy A. Campbell - Caterpillar, Inc.:
And with that, I think that was our last question. Kate?
Operator:
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude today's conference call. You may disconnect your phone lines, and have a wonderful day. Will there be any closing remarks?
Amy A. Campbell - Caterpillar, Inc.:
No, I don't think we have any closing remarks, Kate.
Operator:
Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. Have a wonderful day, and thank you for your participation.
Executives:
Amy A. Campbell - Caterpillar, Inc. D. James Umpleby - Caterpillar, Inc. Bradley M. Halverson - Caterpillar, Inc.
Analysts:
Joseph John O'Dea - Vertical Research Partners LLC Jamie L. Cook - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC David Raso - Evercore ISI Group Ann P. Duignan - JPMorgan Securities LLC Stephen E. Volkmann - Jefferies LLC Adam William Uhlman - Cleveland Research Co. LLC Steven Michael Fisher - UBS Securities LLC Robert Wertheimer - Barclays Capital, Inc. Andrew M. Casey - Wells Fargo Securities LLC Jerry Revich - Goldman Sachs & Co.
Operator:
Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Caterpillar 1Q 2017 Results Conference Call. At this time all participants have been placed on a listen-only mode, and we will open the floor for your questions and comments after the presentation. It is now my pleasure to turn the floor over to your host, Amy Campbell. Ma'am, the floor is yours.
Amy A. Campbell - Caterpillar, Inc.:
Thank you very much, Kate. Good morning and welcome, everyone, to our First Quarter Earnings Call. I'm Amy Campbell, Caterpillar's Director of Investor Relations. And on the call today, I'm pleased to have our CEO, Jim Umpleby; our Group President and CFO, Brad Halverson; and our Vice President of Finance Services, Joe Creed. Remember this call is copyrighted by Caterpillar, Inc., and any use, recording, or transmission of any portion of the call without the express written consent of Caterpillar is strictly prohibited. If you'd like a copy of today's call transcript, we will be posting it in the Investors section of our caterpillar.com website. It will be in the section labeled Results Webcast. This morning we will be discussing forward-looking information that involves risks, uncertainties and assumptions that could cause our actual results to differ materially from the forward-looking information. A discussion of some of the factors that either individually or in the aggregate could make actual results differ materially from our projection can be found in our cautionary statements under Item 1A, risk factors, of our Form 10-K, filed with the SEC in February of 2017. And it's also in our forward-looking statements language that was included in today's financial release. In addition, there is a reconciliation of non-GAAP measures that can be found in this morning's release, and it is also posted at caterpillar.com/earnings. We're going to start the call this morning with a few words from Jim, and then Brad will walk us through first quarter results and our revised outlook. And then we will turn it back to Kate to begin the Q&A portion of the call. Jim?
D. James Umpleby - Caterpillar, Inc.:
Think you, Amy. Before I talk about our quarterly results, I'll spend a few minutes talking about my perspective since becoming Caterpillar's CEO on January 1. It's a privilege to lead this iconic company and this strong leadership team, and I'm confident we are well-positioned for the future. As you know, generally weak economic conditions and commodity price volatility have made the last few years challenging and have significantly impacted the industries we serve. We've responded to these challenges with a thoughtful approach to restructuring and strategies to improve our market competitiveness. Our product quality has improved. We're continuing to invest in R&D and expanded our digital offerings to help our customers be more efficient and productive. We've made progress implementing lean manufacturing and have strengthened our dealer network, which provides us with an unrivaled competitive advantage. We are focused on controlling costs and maintaining the cost flexibility necessary to invest in products and services to drive future growth and shareholder value. The goal of our entire leadership team is to return Caterpillar to profitable growth. Given the industries we serve, we will always be subject to cycles. But our goal – through focusing on profitable growth, a disciplined resource allocation methodology, and a more flexible and competitive cost structure – is to sustain profitability through the cycle. Before I turn it over to Brad to talk about the quarter in detail, I'd like to congratulate our team on a great start to the year. Quarterly sales and revenues were up for the first time since 2015. The difficult but necessary decisions we've made since the downturn have resulted in outstanding operational performance. Profit per share, excluding restructuring, is twice what it was a year ago. There are encouraging signs and promising quotation activity in many of the markets we serve. And retail sales to users have turned positive for both Machines and Energy & Transportation for the first time in several years. However, there is still a great deal of geopolitical and market uncertainty, along with economic volatility around the world that continues to present risks. Now I'll turn it over to Brad to through walk through the results and the outlook in detail.
Bradley M. Halverson - Caterpillar, Inc.:
Well, good morning, and thanks, Jim. If you have the slide deck in front of you, I'd ask if you could please turn to page 4, slide 4, and we'll start with our first quarter results. 2017 has started off very well and exceeded our expectations for the quarter. Sales and revenues increased about $400 million or about 4% on the first quarter of 2016 to $9.8 billion in the first quarter of this year. This is the first time in 10 quarters that sales and revenues were higher than the prior year, although sales are coming off a very low base. Resource Industries had the largest increase, followed by Energy & Transportation and Construction Industries. In the quarter we announced our decision to close the Gosselies, Belgium, and Aurora, Illinois, facilities. Total restructuring costs were $752 million in the quarter, $591 million more than the first quarter of 2016. As a result, profit per share was down $0.14 from $0.46 to $0.32 in the first quarter 2017. On a 4% increase in sales and revenues, profit per share excluding restructuring doubled from a year ago from $0.64 in the first quarter 2016 to $1.28 this quarter. The increase was driven by higher sales, favorable mix, improved price, and lower costs. As you know we've been working hard on lowering our cost structure, right-sizing our footprint, and allocating resources directly to the highest profit opportunities. All these actions were key in delivering a very strong quarter. Let's turn to slide 5, and we'll look at first quarter operating profit. First quarter operating profit was $417 million, as compared with $494 million in 2016. As I already mentioned, restructuring costs were up $591 million. Excluding restructuring costs, operating profit was up $514 million. Positive changes to operating profit came from several areas. The largest increase to profit was the result of higher sales volume and favorable mix. About half of the sales volume profit change came from a favorable mix of products sold in the quarter. And that favorable mix impact was about equally spread across all three of our primary segments. While the market remains very competitive from a pricing perspective, price realization was favorable $88 million, with more than all of the positive variance coming from Construction Industries, partially offset by negative price in Resource Industries. Variable manufacturing costs were favorable by $96 million, with about half of that positive variance coming from continued improvement in material cost. We continue to reap the benefits of collaboration efforts between our dedicated procurement team, suppliers, and engineers, but we do not expect material costs to be – but we do expect material costs to be under pressure as the year proceeds due to an expectation of higher commodity prices, especially steel, in the back half of the year. Lower period costs were better by $140 million. Lower period costs are a result of our restructuring and cost reduction initiatives that we have implemented over the last several years and delayed timing of R&D spend, partially offset by higher incentive compensation expense of about $100 million. We also had strong ME&T operating cash flow, which was $1.5 billion in the quarter compared to $200 million in the first quarter of 2016. And we ended the quarter with $9.5 billion in cash. Now let's look at each of the segments, starting on slide 6. Construction Industries' sales and revenues were up slightly to $4.1 billion. Positive price realization of $123 million drove more than all of the sales increase. While the construction industry market remains very competitive, especially in North America, favorable price realization was due to a particularly weak pricing environment in the first quarter of 2016 and previously announced price increases impacting the first quarter of 2017. However, the sales story is more than just price. Very strong demand in Asia-Pacific was largely offset by lower sales volume in North America. The strong demand in China resulted in a reduction in Asia-Pacific dealer inventory, as demand outpaced our sales to dealers. Strength in China has mainly been driven by a strong execution of public-private partnership projects, particularly related to infrastructure and strong housing investment. Credit growth has remained supportive and better than we previously expected. High replacement demand and a tight used machine inventory market have also helped. While March and April are traditionally the highest months for industry opportunity in China's peak selling season, if policy remains supportive we expect strong market conditions in China to continue at least through mid-year. North America dealer inventory increased, but by less than a year ago. And end user demand was lower. Both contributed to the sales decline in North America. However, order activity in North America has been very strong, which has contributed to the increase in the backlog. The Middle East and Brazil remain weak. Construction Industries' operating profit was favorable by about $200 million on about flat sales as a result of favorable price realization and lower cost. Construction Industries' multi-year focus on OPACC, as we call it, our operating profit after capital charge, delivered the strongest quarter for operating margin percent in a long time. And this on sales that are about 20% below the highs reached in the second quarter of 2011. If we move to slide 7, we'll look at Resource Industries. We are very happy to report that we have good news in our Resource Industries segment. Sales were $1.7 billion or up 15% versus 2016, and operating profit was $158 million. After four years of declining sales, the part fleet has come down and is now under 20%. Hours of utilization on trucks is up. And for the fourth quarter in a row, parts sales have increased to support rebuild and maintenance needs. Sales increases for aftermarket parts were broad based, and they were the primary driver of the change in sales. As you saw in the retail stats that were published yesterday, sales to users remain negative. However, after 16 quarters of underproducing retail demand, dealer inventory remained about flat in the quarter, with a positive change in inventory more than offsetting negative retail sales and driving Resource Industries OEM sales up. We are seeing sporadic order activity for mining equipment and expect to ship significantly more mining trucks than we did in 2016. Resource Industries delivered positive operating profit for the first time since the second quarter of 2015, which is the result of significant actions that have been taken to lower their breakeven point. The improvement in operating profit resulted from higher sales volume and lower costs, partially offset by higher incentive compensation expense. Let's move to slide 8 and look at E&T. Energy & Transportation sales were up slightly in the quarter, from $3.3 billion to $3.4 billion. Higher sales into oil and gas applications, primarily in North America, were partially offset by lower Power Gen sales into EAME. Sales into industrial and transportation applications were about flat. The number of oil and gas rigs in service continues to increase and has more than doubled the lows that were reached last May. This has resulted in an increase in aftermarket parts demand to support the overhaul and rebuild of well servicing fleets. We are also seeing a significant increase in demand for our large reciprocating engines used for midstream gas compression applications. Demand for drilling and production application remains very low. Operating profit for Energy & Transportation was up $142 million, from $410 million to $552 million. This was largely attributable to higher sales volume, a favorable impact from cost absorption, and improved material costs. Period costs were about flat as the favorable impact of restructuring and cost reduction actions was about offset by a higher short term incentive compensation expense. I want to add a quick comment on financial products. Operating profit was up $15 million. The portfolio remains healthy and past dues were 2.64% versus 2.78% in the first quarter of 2016. Write-offs were down and used equipment prices are starting to recover. Okay. Well, let's move to slide 9, and we'll look at our full-year outlook. We announced this morning that we are raising the outlook for full-year sales and revenues. In January we provided an outlook for sales and revenues of $36 billion to $39 billion. As a result of better-than-expected first quarter, strong order rates, and an increase in our backlog, we are providing new guidance for sales and revenues in a range of $38 billion to $41 billion with a midpoint of $39.5 billion, which is up $2 billion from our previous outlook. At the midpoint of the sales and revenue range we have changed the profit-per-share outlook to $2.10, reflecting our decision to close the Gosselies and Aurora facilities. And we have raised the profit-per-share, excluding restructuring costs, outlook to $3.75. We turn to the next. While there are positive signs across many of our end markets, and we have seen a significant increase in order activity and the backlog, we believe given the political uncertainty around the globe and the potential for volatility in commodity prices, that it is prudent at this point in the cycle and at this point in the year to consider both the positive and negative as we look at our end markets and what could impact sales as the year progresses. There are several positive sentiments. World business confidence is at a two-year high and world growth is accelerating. There are also positive indicators for North America construction demand. Many states have passed infrastructure bills. Pipeline projects that were previously stuck in permitting are now moving ahead and residential and nonresidential demand in certain parts of the U.S. remains robust. We believe business optimism, which may be contributing to elevated quoting and ordering activity in North America, is partially a reflection of the benefits of pro-business policy in regards to infrastructure and tax reform. However, we don't expect to see any meaningful impact from these changes until 2018. The backlog is up $2.7 billion on strong order activity in all segments. China construction equipment industry is robust with industry sales up sharply versus last year. Gas compression demand for reciprocating engines is very strong. And miners' balance sheets are improving, and they are expecting increases to CapEx. However, there are other risks to the outlook that we believe are prudent to take into account. Outside of Asia-Pacific, retail stats for construction industries remain negative. Demand for overhauls and rebuilds in mining and oil and gas could diminish as those units go back to work. Brazil remains weak. The Middle East continues to struggle as a result of lower oil prices. Competitively, the pricing environment remains very challenging. The potential for oversupply of oil could drive volatility in the price of that commodity. And geopolitical uncertainty across the globe is elevated. If we go to slide 11, we'll look at it quickly by segment. We now expect Construction Industries sales for the year to be about flat to up 5%, driven largely by demand in China. We have yet to see retail stats in the rest of the world turn positive. While order rates are encouraging, they will need to be sustained by continued strength and business confidence. For Resource Industries we now expect sales and revenues to be up 10% to 15% for the full year, driven by higher parts sales in the first half of the year to support rebuilds and maintenance work. And then transitioning in the second half to new equipment sales to support increased CapEx spending from the miners. We now expect Energy & Transportation sales revenues to be about flat for the year. Improvements in oil and gas to support overhauls in maintenance for well servicing fleets and higher demand for reciprocating engines used in gas compression applications are largely being offset by slight weakness across Power Gen, industrial and transportation. If we move to slide 12, we'll look at the outlook for profit. While there are several small puts and takes, the raise in the profit per share from $2.90 to $3.75, excluding restructuring, is primarily the result of an increase in sales volume of about $2 billion and a corresponding variable margin we would expect on higher sales, partially offset by an increase in short-term incentive compensation expense of about $200 million. The outlook reflects just slightly more than half of the year's sales and revenues in the first half, which would be similar to trends in recent years. We had a very strong quarter. And if you compare the first quarter to the average of the last three quarters, we expect some real headwinds, due to less favorable mix than we experienced in the first quarter, pressure on price and material costs, and the timing of period cost spend. That said, at a midpoint of $39.5 billion in sales and revenues, and a PPS excluding restructuring cost outlook of $3.75 for the full year, at this sales range we would expect – we expect to deliver an operating profit pull-through of just less than 50%, well ahead of our target range of 25% to 30%. So we'll wrap up on slide 13. First quarter was a great way to start the year, with higher sales and very strong operating performance across the board. We raised the outlook for sales and revenues to reflect a strong quarter and improved market conditions across many of our end markets. While uncertainty and the potential for volatility in commodity prices remain, we are ready to respond as demand increases. We remain very focused on cost management. And we are using our operating and execution models to be very deliberate about where to invest so that we deliver the highest shareholder value, investments that include lean, R&D, and digital. Before we turn it back to the operator for the Q&A portion, I believe Jim has a few additional comments.
D. James Umpleby - Caterpillar, Inc.:
Thanks, Brad. My first quarter as CEO has certainly been eventful. We had great first quarter results, announced the relocation of our headquarters to the Chicago area, the closure of our Gosselies, Belgium, facility and the relocation of manufacturing out of Aurora, Illinois. We've also ratified a new six-year contract with the UAW. Each of these are significant actions. Taken together, they will strengthen our company and create long-term value for our shareholders. Also I want to provide an update related to the search warrant executed at three Peoria area facilities in March. At Caterpillar, we take very seriously our obligation to follow the law. And we are committed to maintaining our long tradition of pursuing the highest ethical standards in conducting our business. If we find something that violates our values and our code of conduct, we will take appropriate action. At this time we have nothing more to report. Caterpillar has retained former U.S. Attorney General William Barr currently of counsel to the firm of Kirkland & Ellis to take a fresh look, get all the facts, and help bring these matters to proper resolutions. We are continuing to cooperate with the government investigation. Amy?
Amy A. Campbell - Caterpillar, Inc.:
Thanks, Jim. And now we will turn it back to Kate to open the phone lines for questions.
Operator:
Thank you. Our first question today is coming from Joseph O´Dea. Your line is live.
Joseph John O'Dea - Vertical Research Partners LLC:
Hi. Good morning. First question just on the guide and what you're looking at for margin in the rest of the year. I think you talked to a number of headwinds, but if you could just talk maybe a little bit more specifically about some of the details, whether or not price you see continuing as a tailwind? Or if you have visibility into that reversing to some headwinds? What you see on the mix front? And anything else with material costs that are on the horizon? Just so we get some comfort with the implied step down in the margins.
Amy A. Campbell - Caterpillar, Inc.:
Sure, Joe. And I think you have to look at it kind of two different ways. If you look at the new outlook that was provided this morning and compare it against the outlook from January, really broadly speaking the only two changes are those that Brad talked about, higher sales volume of about $2 billion, which will generate higher variable margin, offset by about $200 million more in short-term incentive compensation expense. In the original outlook we communicated that we expected material costs to be favorable about 1% for the full year. While we expect that number to come down some, we still do expect some positive, maybe closer to zero, but still some positive material costs for the full year. Our outlook for price has not changed really very much at all since the original outlook. And our period costs assumption, excluding that short-term incentive compensation expense, is also, broadly speaking, about the same. So versus the outlook that we provided back in January, it's really just higher volume minus the higher incentive compensation expense. If you look at what's changing from the first quarter to the rest of the year, there's a couple of things to keep in mind. We had very favorable mix in the first quarter. About half of the sales volume mix impact was from mix. And we don't expect to see that kind of favorable mix impact as we go forward. We do expect pressure on price and material costs in the back half of the year, especially around steel. But even though we expect them to be favorable versus last year, we don't expect them to be as favorable as we saw in the first quarter. And there was some period costs. Timing of spend, traditionally the first quarter is a low quarter for period cost spending, so some of our projects and initiatives that we have planned for the year did not pick up to their full spend rates in the first quarter. That would also increase as the year progresses. But I think if you take it all in, and we're committed to incremental profit pull-throughs (26:08) for the full year, and the outlook reflects almost 50% operating profit pull through, well ahead of our 25% to 30% commitment and goal.
Joseph John O'Dea - Vertical Research Partners LLC:
That's really helpful. And then just one more on mining. And I think it looked like in the quarter actually, the benefit of some sell in to dealers that was better than what you saw in kind of the pull through demand. But you also commented on expecting significantly higher volumes I think in mining truck shipments this year. I believe you've talked about large mining truck shipment volumes in the kind of 70, 80 units last year. Can you give any kind of frame for exactly what kind of volumes you're anticipating in 2017?
Amy A. Campbell - Caterpillar, Inc.:
Yeah. So if you look at Resource Industries dealer inventory, it really broadly stayed about flat quarter over quarter. And so since we've been on kind of 16 sequential quarters of taking dealer inventory down, that was a positive to sales. But dealer inventory did remain – it was actually up just slightly in the quarter. As you mentioned, Joe, we probably sold about 70 to 80 trucks or so last year. It was probably closer to 70. We do expect shipments for large mining trucks to increase significantly. Most of those will be in the back half of the year. Several of those are going to large customers in less price-favorable regions, I guess you could say. But we have good demand. I think even if we double the number of truck sales – and I think that's certainly very doable this year – it would still be the second lowest year for large mining truck sales. So we're still at very low levels, even in 2017, with what will probably be some pretty significant increases in our total shipments versus last year.
Joseph John O'Dea - Vertical Research Partners LLC:
Got it. Thanks very much.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question today is coming from Jamie Cook. Your line is live.
Jamie L. Cook - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC:
Hi. Good morning, and congrats on a nice quarter. Jim, not a bad way to start off as CEO. I guess back to Resource, Amy or Brad, I'm just trying to understand what's implied in your guidance for research margins in 2017, given where we started the year at a 9.5% margin. I think that was better than what anyone would've hoped. Or did the margins get eaten away by selling to less profitable regions? I'm just trying to understand that. And then I guess – or was there anything unusual I guess in the first quarter that the 9.5% sort of isn't sustainable? And then I guess the second question I have is just sort of how you're handling the cyclical upturn. When I talk to your dealers, a lot of them are complaining about lead times and that lead times are extended. So I'm wondering if when I think about your sales forecast, is any of the upside constrained by your inability to ramp? Or could you just talk about how you're thinking about ramping production in your supply base? Thanks.
Amy A. Campbell - Caterpillar, Inc.:
Sure, Jamie. If you look at Resource Industries margins, like I said we were very pleased with the margins that Resource Industries put up this quarter, $158 million in operating profit. If you kind of revert back to the fourth quarter call and Mike's discussion, we expected Resource Industries to lose a little money but be close to breakeven. And so it really had a great quarter. We don't expect this quarter to repeat, either in terms of operating margin dollars or operating margin percent. But moving forward for the rest of the year we would expect Resource Industries to either break even or do a little better through the rest of the quarters remaining this year.
Jamie L. Cook - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC:
But is there a particular reason for the step down? Like I understand you're saying it's not...
Amy A. Campbell - Caterpillar, Inc.:
Sure. Yeah. So Resource Industries, as we talked about, that mix number was about equally spread across the three primary segments. We wouldn't expect that favorable mix to continue. There will also be, like in the other segments, some material cost pressure. And we do expect some sales for some mining equipment into some regions of the world that maybe aren't as price advantaged as other parts of the globe.
Jamie L. Cook - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC:
Okay. And then just sort of lead times or how much your sales forecast is being constrained by you guys not be able to ramp quickly enough?
Amy A. Campbell - Caterpillar, Inc.:
Sure. I think there are probably two areas. Maybe I'll step back a little bit. If you look at Construction Industries, with a significant increase in orders for BCP [Building Construction Products] product in the fourth quarter and first quarter, several of those products have been moved to managed distribution. And with the announcement that we were considering the closure of both Gosselies and Aurora, we also put all medium wheel loaders on managed distribution at the beginning of the year. In both cases that was to make sure that we got shipments to where they needed to go and to discourage some panic ordering or some unnecessary ordering to make sure we managed that. But we don't expect either of those actions to impact or drive a loss in sales situation. If you look at China, I would say that for Construction Industries, while we continue to grow market share there and we're very pleased with how the year is shaping up so far, I'd say if demand continues at these levels (31:37), we're continuing to keep an eye on China and make sure that we can continue to meet the higher demand in that region. But the other notable comment, and I've seen a lot of it being discussed out there, is for our large 3600 reciprocating engine. We have seen lead times for those extend out. And we're bringing the production back to our Lafayette, Indiana, facility. But we wouldn't expect that to result in any lost sales either.
Jamie L. Cook - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC:
Okay. Thank you. I'll get back in queue.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question today is coming from David Raso. Your line is live.
David Raso - Evercore ISI Group:
Hi. Good morning. Given your comments about the supply chain is not an issue at the moment, or loss of sales from any production ramp that you feel you can do, I'm just trying to reconcile really simply the sales guide. The rest of the year sales growth is implied at only 2%. But the backlog is up 13%, the implied orders are up twice as much as that. The revenues were already up 4% in the first quarter. So can you just help us square – do you see something that would suggest growth has to slow from what you've been seeing of late? Because even if I just annualize the first quarter, for example, in CI or even RI, you're already at or above the high end of your range for those segments. So if you could just help us better understand the sales guide?
Amy A. Campbell - Caterpillar, Inc.:
David, if we go back and revisit some of the positive sentiments but also some of the negative, or risks that are out there in the outlook, we wanted to be thoughtful and mindful that there's still a lot of uncertainty in the world. And there's still the potential for volatility both in commodity prices and oil prices. And so even (33:26) if you walk through a few of those, first of all we would expect – we're seeing a lot of demand for overhauls and rebuilds of both mining equipment and oil and gas well servicing fleets. We would expect that demand to taper off. Or I don't know if we would expect that, but it could taper off as the year goes on and all of those units get overhauled and repaired. We also – we do need to watch the volatility. It's possible that too much supply comes back online in North America, which would drive some additional volatility in oil prices when it comes to commodity prices. While the demand and supply seems to be in better balance, there still is some persistently high inventories for several commodities, which could put some pressure on commodity prices. If you look at North America order rates, as Brad mentioned and you mentioned, have been very strong. Certainly, there are some good fundamentals to support that that Brad talked through, pipeline. A lot of states have passed infrastructure bills. But we believe some of that has to do with business optimism. And we need to see that business optimism continue through at least the second quarter I think before we get more comfortable and confident about what the back half of the year will look like.
David Raso - Evercore ISI Group:
Just to be clear, I mean those are all very valid and potential concerns. But these aren't things you're necessarily seeing in your current order books or trends. Is that correct? I mean all those points are valid.
Amy A. Campbell - Caterpillar, Inc.:
Yeah.
David Raso - Evercore ISI Group:
But I mean I'm just making sure nothing there sounded like we are seeing in the second half the rebuilds. Because if anything, the lead times are getting longer out of Lafayette. Right? So I'm just trying to – some of the comments you made, I just want to make sure those aren't trends you're seeing in your orders. It's just – understandably it's April and things could change from a macro level. But from a micro level, are there any particular concerns? Because even the last nine months of last year, the dealers took out $1.9 billion of inventory. The year-over-year swing on inventory I assume the next nine months is a positive. Could you maybe help us with how you view dealer inventory the next nine months?
Amy A. Campbell - Caterpillar, Inc.:
So if you look at dealer inventory, and we didn't include that in the Q&A. I think it's really going to shape up to what we expect 2018 to be. And it's really too early to make a forecast for 2018. Embedded in the outlook is a slight decrease in dealer inventory, certainly quite a bit less than what the $1.9 billion or $1.7 billion for the full year that we saw in 2016. I think back to your earlier question, we have seen I'd say the pace of order activity slow a little bit. But it is still doing better than a year ago as we said in April.
David Raso - Evercore ISI Group:
Okay. The reason I asked is the dealer inventory swing, if you even just get – you took out $1.9 billion the last nine months of last year. Say you take out only $650 million, that $1.25 billion of improved year-over-year dealer inventory, the rest of the year would give you almost 5% revenue growth. So it seems like your sales guide is not even a dealer inventory swing. So that's why I was just trying to make sure I understand what's in it. And it just sounds like...
Amy A. Campbell - Caterpillar, Inc.:
Yeah.
David Raso - Evercore ISI Group:
And completely fair, just a little more of a potential macro concern that could materialize.
Amy A. Campbell - Caterpillar, Inc.:
Yeah.
David Raso - Evercore ISI Group:
Okay.
Amy A. Campbell - Caterpillar, Inc.:
Yes. I think if you looked at any one of those assumptions in isolation, I think you could conclude that there's some upside. And I think that makes sense and we would agree with that. But as we sit here in April, there still is a lot of uncertainty, there still is the volatility. We're only three months through the full year. We need to see order rates continue at the levels we saw in the first quarter in order to get more comfortable about the rest of the year. But we are I think very pleased with our ability to raise the outlook by $2 billion here one quarter into the year.
David Raso - Evercore ISI Group:
No, that's fair. I appreciate it. Thank you for the time.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question today is coming from Ann Duignan. Your line is live.
Ann P. Duignan - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Hi. Good morning, guys.
Bradley M. Halverson - Caterpillar, Inc.:
Good morning, Ann.
Ann P. Duignan - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Morning. Just to take a step back. And again you're talking about products being on managed distribution. And yet at the same time we're looking at stubbornly high days on hand at Caterpillar of 123 days. Can you help us reconcile just why your own inventories remain so high? Is that just seasonal? Should we expect a significant improvement as we go through the year? Or are we going to see write-downs of inventories as we go forward? Just trying to reconcile that.
Amy A. Campbell - Caterpillar, Inc.:
Yeah. So I think dealer inventory, we have taken production up at several of our facilities, a few that we talked about, Lafayette, Indiana as well as in China. We are having to build inventory in Gosselies and in Aurora and in our component plant across – in order to manage through the closure and consolidation of several of our facilities. So that is driving some dealer – or some dealer, excuse me – some of our inventory up here in the first quarter. I think where inventory lands for the full year will have a lot to do with what 2018 looks like. We do at this point I would say expect CAT inventory to remain broadly about flat for the full year. Certainly continue – and both Brad and Jim mentioned this, continue to be focused on lean, driving an increase in inventory turns. Certainly have no expectations that there would be any write downs in inventory of any significance for the remainder of the year.
Ann P. Duignan - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Okay. I appreciate the color. And I do appreciate when you're closing large facilities, you have to build up inventory. And then switching gears. I mean you mentioned a few times demand for reciprocating engines, strong in the oil and gas midstream. You didn't mention Solar at all on the turbine side. Can you talk about what's going on with Solar? And how the backlog looks there year to date and so far?
Amy A. Campbell - Caterpillar, Inc.:
Sure. So Solar, I think in the outlook – the original outlook from the last quarter, we shared that we expect Solar to be about flat 2017 versus 2016. That remains our expectation. We have a really good backlog to support the outlook for the year. The backlog for Solar was up slightly in the quarter as we continue to take orders moving out into 2018. And so I'd say Solar is kind of continuing as we expected on about flat sales for the year versus last year.
Ann P. Duignan - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Okay. I'll leave it there and get back in line. Thank you.
Amy A. Campbell - Caterpillar, Inc.:
Thanks, Ann.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question today is coming from Stephen Volkmann. Your line is live.
Stephen E. Volkmann - Jefferies LLC:
Hi. Good morning, Amy and gentlemen.
Bradley M. Halverson - Caterpillar, Inc.:
Good morning, Steve.
D. James Umpleby - Caterpillar, Inc.:
Morning.
Amy A. Campbell - Caterpillar, Inc.:
Morning, Steve.
Stephen E. Volkmann - Jefferies LLC:
I'm wondering, you gave a little bit of color, which was quite helpful, on sort of the trajectory of the Resource Industry margins as we go through the next three quarters. I'm wondering if you might be willing to do that with the other two segments? Because obviously margins in both of those other two segments also were I think higher than most people were looking for. So should we expect some deflation there as well? And if so, why?
Amy A. Campbell - Caterpillar, Inc.:
Yeah, I'd say the reasons for the second through fourth quarter operating margin percentages to be lower on Resource Industries are pretty consistent across the other two primary segments as well. As Brad mentioned, Construction Industries had a great quarter for operating margin percent. We would expect for the full year, which would weight in the first quarter operating margin for Construction Industries, to be just up slightly versus 2016 with pressure in the back half of the year from less favorable mix, pressure on price and material costs, and some period cost spend, timing that didn't occur in the first quarter. For Energy & Transportation, which also had I'd say a very good quarter for operating margin percent versus a year ago, versus first quarter of 2016, I mean it's just slightly better than the full year for 2016, the first quarter of 2016 for Energy & Transportation. It was the lowest quarter by several hundred basis points versus the other three quarters in 2016. We would expect Energy & Transportation operating margin to be about flat for the full year versus 2016.
Stephen E. Volkmann - Jefferies LLC:
Okay. That's helpful. Would you be willing to sort of ballpark how much in terms of period costs that the first quarter was below normal?
Amy A. Campbell - Caterpillar, Inc.:
Well, what I would say is for – as we revert back to the outlook that we provided in the fourth quarter 2016, we expected period costs to be about $450 million to $500 million. I think in the 10-K, we communicated $450 million lower for the year, excluding the higher short-term incentive comp and wage increases for the full year. And that assumption, with the exception of short-term incentive comp being up $200 million, hasn't changed with this outlook very significantly.
Stephen E. Volkmann - Jefferies LLC:
Okay. Great. That's helpful. Thanks.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question today is coming from Adam Uhlman. Your line is live.
Adam William Uhlman - Cleveland Research Co. LLC:
Hi. Good morning. It's Cleveland Research. I guess to start, the strong performance in the quarter seems to have been driven by part sales. And directionally, that should've helped the price realization I'm thinking as well. So I'm wondering if you could just dimension overall how much the parts business grew in total? And what your outlook is for the full year?
Amy A. Campbell - Caterpillar, Inc.:
Yeah. I think it's certainly more complicated than that. Aftermarket parts were up. That primarily impacted Resource Energies (sic) [Resource Industries] and Energy & Transportation, as mining equipment was coming in and well servicing units were coming in for overhaul and rebuild. I think you have to take into account Construction Industries price was quite favorable as well. And Construction Industries didn't see really a significant increase in their aftermarket part sales. So if we look at aftermarket part sales, we would expect that to be a little heavier in the first quarter and in the first half as that mining equipment and the oil – the well servicing fleets for oil and gas in North America kind of are coming in as we speak to be overhauled and repaired. But that work may decline as the year goes on and there's less units that need overhaul.
Adam William Uhlman - Cleveland Research Co. LLC:
Okay. And then secondly, could you speak to the restructuring savings that you expect to get out of Gosselies and Aurora? And the cadence of those savings? Are we capturing very much in 2017? And what should we expect for 2018 and beyond?
Amy A. Campbell - Caterpillar, Inc.:
Sure. I think we haven't changed the period cost guide for the full year in this new outlook. We wouldn't expect to see – I mean – sorry. Here, we wouldn't expect to see any cost improvements from the Aurora and Gosselies decisions in 2017. In fact, we would likely see some inefficiencies as we take production down in those plants in the back half of the year, which kind of is something that we're keeping an eye on. The Aurora – the move and the relocation of production out of Aurora to the other two U.S. facilities, that work kind of wraps up in the 2018 timeframe. So we shouldn't see benefits for that until after 2018. And we do expect the Gosselies, Belgium, facility to start ramping down towards the end of this year. But we also wouldn't expect mature year benefits for Gosselies until 2019 and beyond as well.
Adam William Uhlman - Cleveland Research Co. LLC:
And how big are those savings?
Amy A. Campbell - Caterpillar, Inc.:
We're not disclosing those savings in particular. What I would say is they were included in our original September 2015 announcement – or they were being contemplated in a part of that broader commitment of $1.5 billion of total cost savings for restructuring. We delivered that through 2016. We expect about $500 million more – or $450 million more of period cost reduction from restructuring and cost reduction actions this year, which would bring us to about $2 billion in total. And it's really – we're not going to comment at this time on 2018.
Adam William Uhlman - Cleveland Research Co. LLC:
Okay. Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question today is coming from Steven Fisher. Your line is live.
Steven Michael Fisher - UBS Securities LLC:
Great. Thanks very much. Just how did the increase in the aftermarket in Resource Industries play out in the quarter? Was the demand pickup from a broad swath of customers and a small part of their fleet, or a small number of customers and a large part of their fleet getting reinvestment? Or was it some combination of both? Just trying to understand the sustainability of that trend.
Amy A. Campbell - Caterpillar, Inc.:
Sure. I think if you look at the increase in aftermarket parts sales for Resource Industries, it was broad across all four regions. We're seeing good activity in iron ore and coal in Australia. Good activity for copper in Latin America. We are seeing a lot of machines get put back to work around coal in North America. And the CIS region is doing very well for gold mining. And there would be some other positive stories among those. But those are the ones on the top of my head. So it is broad-based from a higher aftermarket parts perspective. And if you look at kind of order rates that were driving the increase in the backlog for Resource Industries, I'd also say that those are fairly broad-based as well.
Steven Michael Fisher - UBS Securities LLC:
Okay. And then just want to ask the revenue guidance question from the other direction. Because clearly there's been a lot of volatility in the stock price related to revenue guidance changes over the last couple of years. So just want to ask, what is giving the confidence to raise the revenue guidance by the $2 billion so early on in the year? And I know you mentioned obviously the backlog and quoting activity. And slide 10 had a lot of number of puts and takes there. But what would you say are giving you that confidence, the most amount of confidence? And what are the most important things that have to go right to at least hit that $2 billion before we talk about more upside?
Amy A. Campbell - Caterpillar, Inc.:
Yeah. I think one thing I would say is you have to step back and look at the revenue increase versus 2016. So the sales and revenues increase is up just 3%. It's not a significant increase versus 2016. And so while we certainly are pleased and excited that we're able to raise the outlook this morning, it's not a significant raise versus last year. So we still are remaining cautious. Certainly still many, many of our end markets are at very depressed levels. I think from a perspective of what we need to see to – one, I would say, as you mentioned, and it's in the release, what gave us the confidence to raise the outlook was a very strong quarter, very strong order rate, and an increase in the backlog that should be fairly sustainable. What we continue to keep an eye on is business optimism in North America. And do we continue to see order rates stay at higher levels than we incurred in 2016? We do want to watch the volatility of oil and other commodity prices. And there's still tremendous geopolitical uncertainty around the world that we're keeping our eye on. And want to make sure I think before we would take another step that we're comfortable about sustainability of the order rates versus what we saw in the first quarter.
Steven Michael Fisher - UBS Securities LLC:
Thank you very much.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question today is coming from Robert Wertheimer. Your line is live.
Robert Wertheimer - Barclays Capital, Inc.:
Thank you. A question on resources mining. Would you be able to characterize the increase in parts sales? Was it more big rebuild and sort of scheduled maintenance than people coming in and doing big projects? Or was it more a flow in consumables, maybe a restocking to dealers and restocking to mines, et cetera? Just a little bit curious on the mix on that.
Amy A. Campbell - Caterpillar, Inc.:
Yeah. I don't have that breakdown, Rob. Kind of more it would just be anecdotally what I've heard the business teams share. Certainly we believe that a lot of it has to do with overhaul and rebuild of mining equipment. We do believe that there may have been some restocking of dealer shelves in the first quarter. And certainly if you look at the hours of utilization of the mining equipment versus where it was at its depth, kind of middle of last year, mining equipment is being used quite a bit more extensively. And I think that you can conclude from that that it's driving consumables of filters and fluids and other things like that as well. So I think it's pretty broad-based across all three of those categories.
Robert Wertheimer - Barclays Capital, Inc.:
Thank you. And if I could ask a second. I mean Construction, CAT has spent a number of years sort of improving its competitive position relative to peers through limited pricing. And I think has successfully done that. I mean do you have any thoughts on what you think your sustainable margin is? Whether this quarter is starting to be more a reflection as you normalize your pricing versus competition what Construction can do? Or just thoughts on normal?
Amy A. Campbell - Caterpillar, Inc.:
Sure. As you could expect, I'm not going to give you a guide kind of on normal operating margin for Construction Industries. As I said a little earlier, we do expect a small improvement, a slight improvement in operating margins for the full year for Construction Industries versus a year ago. And that's going to be on significantly higher incentive compensation expense. So I think it continues to reflect the great work that that team has done and their focus around OPACC or operating profit after capital charge. The pricing environment for Construction Industries, especially in North America, is very competitive right now. We are looking at that. I'd say it's across numerous competitors, not just with transaction pricing but also with financing deals. That's certainly a risk that we have in the back half of the year that we continue to keep our eye on and make sure that we're meeting our market position goals.
Robert Wertheimer - Barclays Capital, Inc.:
Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question today is coming from Andrew Casey. Your line is live.
Andrew M. Casey - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
Thanks. Good morning, everybody.
Amy A. Campbell - Caterpillar, Inc.:
Good morning.
D. James Umpleby - Caterpillar, Inc.:
Morning, Andy.
Andrew M. Casey - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
Question on the outlook. If I take the implied $3.75 midpoint, subtract the really good Q1 from that, it applies about a $0.30 earnings decline for the last three quarters of the year compared to last year. And then if I take the 50% pull-through expectation for this year, kind of implies flat Machines and E&T operating profit for the last three quarters. Could you help us understand the factors, if I'm doing the math right, below the operating profit line that are driving this $0.30 headwind?
Amy A. Campbell - Caterpillar, Inc.:
Yeah. So there's a couple things. The tax rate is a little bit higher. I think it's about 28% now in the outlook versus 25% I believe for 2016. We do have a slightly higher assumption for shares. And then there are several things that happened in the other income and expense line, some hedging gains or losses that we don't put in the outlook as well as some income – or interest income, excuse me, and a couple other small things that are all occurring kind of below that operating profit line. That'll net you out to that reconciliation you're trying to do, Andy.
Andrew M. Casey - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
Okay. I'll follow up off line. Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question today is coming from Jerry Revich. Your line is live.
Jerry Revich - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Hi. Good morning, everyone.
Amy A. Campbell - Caterpillar, Inc.:
Good morning, Jerry.
D. James Umpleby - Caterpillar, Inc.:
Morning.
Jerry Revich - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
I'm wondering if you folks can talk about – now that you're closer to completing the manufacturing footprint restructuring program, can you update us on your next set of strategic priorities? Jim, I appreciate it's only a quarter in. But I'm wondering if you could just outline for us the next areas that you folks are focusing on? And how you're thinking about the business over the next cycle?
D. James Umpleby - Caterpillar, Inc.:
Yeah. And, Jerry, we have a group of senior executives that we pull together to really lay out our strategy moving forward. I mean call it a strategic planning committee. Something that Caterpillar CEOs typically do when they come into office. And so we're working our way through that. It's too early for us to talk about that. But certainly at the analyst meeting we're having later in the year, we'll lay those out.
Jerry Revich - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Okay. I guess on the shorter term front, you folks have rolled out the general contractor grade product lines across your developed market, construction equipment product lines. And I'm wondering if there are any other strategic priorities that are near term that you folks can talk about outside of what's planned for later this year?
Amy A. Campbell - Caterpillar, Inc.:
I think certainly – and there's certainly a lot of them. But one that comes quickly to mind, Jerry, would be our focus on digital, making sure that we have the best services and solution to meet our customers' needs and help them be successful and make more money using our products than our competitors'. So all of the advancements, a lot of them on display at ConExpo, is a huge area of focus for us right now. We believe we have the largest industrial connected fleet in the world of about 0.5 billion connected assets. And we continue to expect to grow that this year. And so I think that's one area of many, as well as continued focus on new product development. And then I'd say lastly, using the operating execution model to make sure we're very deliberate about where we put our resources to make sure they're being put around projects and investments that'll drive the highest shareholder value.
Jerry Revich - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Okay. And, Amy, in Resources you spoke about a substantial production ramp for new equipment. I'm wondering if you can put that into context for us I guess. From some of your competitors, we're seeing book to bill, depending on the product line, but in the 1.5 range. And I'm wondering as you folks plan your production, are you folks maintaining or gaining share? Or are you down a little bit? Can you just give us some flavor relative to statistics we see from your primary competitors?
Amy A. Campbell - Caterpillar, Inc.:
Yeah. And I think the number I gave was specifically around large mining trucks, which was one of the more depressed from its peak volume and off – and probably one of the most off of what we would consider kind of mid-cycle volume levels than some of our other mining equipment. I think if you look at book to bill, we don't – as you know we don't disclose that information specifically. But I would say we don't believe that we're losing any market share. We are seeing very healthy order rates, good sporadic. I mean a year ago there was almost no ordering activity going on in Resource Industries. So we are coming off of a very low base. But we are seeing sporadic orders and good demand for mining equipment.
Jerry Revich - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Okay. Thank you.
Amy A. Campbell - Caterpillar, Inc.:
And I think with that, well, that'll be the last question. So, Kate?
Operator:
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude today's conference call. You may disconnect your phone lines at this time and have a wonderful day. Thank you for your participation.
Executives:
Bradley M. Halverson - Caterpillar, Inc. D. James Umpleby - Caterpillar, Inc. Michael Lynn DeWalt - Caterpillar, Inc.
Analysts:
Nicole Deblase - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc. Ross P. Gilardi - Bank of America Merrill Lynch Jerry Revich - Goldman Sachs & Co. Eli Lustgarten - Longbow Research LLC Robert Wertheimer - Barclays Capital, Inc. Ann P. Duignan - JPMorgan Securities LLC David Raso - Evercore ISI Group Jamie L. Cook - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC Andrew M. Casey - Wells Fargo Securities LLC
Operator:
Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Caterpillar Year End 2016 Conference Call. At this time, all participants have been placed on a listen-only mode, and we will open the floor for your questions and comments after the presentation. It is now my pleasure to turn the floor over to your host, Brad Halverson, CFO. Sir, the floor is yours.
Bradley M. Halverson - Caterpillar, Inc.:
Thank you. Well, good morning and welcome to our year-end earnings call. I'm Brad Halverson, Caterpillar's CFO. On the call with me this morning we have our CEO, Jim Umpleby; Amy Campbell, our Director of Investor Relations; and as has been the case for 48 consecutive quarters, Mike DeWalt, our Vice President of Finance Services. This is Mike's last conference call. He will start his retirement on March 1 after 36 years with Caterpillar. Mike has led our quarterly earnings call since early 2005. He's done it as the Director of IR, the Controller and now as the Vice President of Financial Services. He's led this call through two peaks, the first one ending in 2008 and the second one in 2012, and he's been a steady hand through two down cycles; 2009, and a downturn that we find ourselves in at the moment. Mike has been a great value to this company. He knows our business extremely well. He's a very smart guy. He's been a good friend. He'll continue to be a good friend, and we wish him all the best. But Mike, we thank you for everything you've done, and this is your last call. And those of you who can't see Mike, he's smiling right now. So with that, I'm going to turn the meeting over to our CEO, Jim Umpleby.
D. James Umpleby - Caterpillar, Inc.:
Hi, good morning. Thank you, Brad, and thanks to all of you for joining us this morning. After I make a few opening remarks, I'll turn the meeting over to Mike and he'll cover the Safe Harbor and also get into our results in more detail. We had good operational performance in the fourth quarter and in 2016, despite challenging market conditions. Our sales and revenue were down $8.5 billion or 18%. Decremental margins were better than our target. We achieved over $2 billion of cost reduction in the year, which helped to offset the lower sales volume. We had strong operating cash flow, and we continue to invest in key areas of our business that are critical for our future profitable growth. At the midpoint of our sales and revenue range, our sales will be down slightly in 2017. We continue to closely manage costs. We're also preserving capacity for a potential increase in business whenever that comes. There are positive signs in many of our markets, but we are not anticipating an impact in 2017. Now, I'll turn it over to Mike to get into more detail. Then we'll have some wrap-up comments after Q&A.
Michael Lynn DeWalt - Caterpillar, Inc.:
Okay. Thanks, Jim. Everyone, today, we'll handle this call much like we have the past few. We'll be walking through a short slide deck, and then we'll move on to Q&A. And if you don't have that slide deck in front of you at the moment, it's available at our caterpillar.com website with the conference call webcast link. And as always, this call is copyrighted by Caterpillar, Inc. and any use, recording or transmission of any portion of the call without the expressed written consent of Caterpillar is strictly prohibited. If you'd like a copy of today's call transcript, we will be posting it in the Investors section of our caterpillar.com website and it will be in a section labeled results webcast. So if you go to page 2 of the slide deck, you'll see our forward-looking statements. And this morning for sure we are going to be discussing forward-looking information that involves risks, uncertainties and assumptions that could cause our actual results to differ materially from the forward-looking information. In addition to page 2 of the slide deck, there is a discussion of some of the factors that individually, or in the aggregate, could make our actual results to differ materially from our projections, and that can be found in our cautionary statements under item 1A, risk factors of our Form 10-K, filed with the SEC, and also in the forward-looking statements language in today's financial release. In addition, there's a reconciliation of non-GAAP measures used in both our financial release and this presentation, which can be found in today's earnings release. And again, that's also posted on our caterpillar.com website. So, with that, let's get into the quarter and turn to page 4 of our slide deck for today. And that's the high-level summary of fourth quarter sales and profit. So sales and revenues for the quarter were about $9.6 billion and that's down about 13% from the fourth quarter of 2015 which was just a little over $11 billion. Now, we lost $2 per share in the fourth quarter this year versus $0.16 a share last year in the fourth quarter and if you – if you look at the primary drivers of profit, big contributors to that were the mark-to-market adjustment that we made for the pension liability, we impaired $595 million worth of goodwill, and on that particular topic, there's a Q&A in the release. I think it's the first Q&A, and I think that does a pretty good job of talking through those adjustments. In addition to that, we have a valuation allowance on deferred taxes. That was unfavorable. And those three items, plus restructuring costs are the items that we're adjusting out between profit per share and adjusted profit per share. And adjusted profit per share coincidentally year-over-year was flat at $0.83 per share. And that's – to Jim's point earlier, I think that's pretty good performance. On a 13% decline in sales, our adjusted profit was flat. And that's because we had a lot of cost reduction in the quarter just like we had a lot of cost reduction in the year. Period and variable costs, and we'll talk about this in a minute, a little bit more, were favorable just under $0.5 billion. So that was good performance. Let's move on to page 5. It's a little more discussion about the sales change. So Energy & Transportation, which by sales is the largest segment, dropped about $695 million in sales and about half of that was Transportation, and that is rail and marine. Oil and Gas was down a little and power gen was down a little as well. Power gen has been weak in particular in the Middle East. Resource Industries, down $435 million from just under $1.9 billion to a little over $1.4 billion for the quarter and that's all new equipment. So aftermarket was actually up for the third quarter in a row sequentially, and it was actually up a little bit year-over-year. So fourth quarter was a little higher than the fourth quarter of last year, and that's a good signal. Price realization on the other hand was negative $62 million in the quarter. If we go down to Construction, Construction sales were about $300 million lower, and most of that is in North America and Europe, Africa, Middle East. Actually Asia-Pacific was up quarter over quarter, and a lot of that came from strength in China that we've seen so far this year. So, again, in total, we were down about $1.456 billion quarter over quarter. If we move on to page 6, this is a waterfall chart that sort of reconciles, I guess, operating loss in the fourth quarter of last year to the fourth quarter of this year, and it's everything, all in. So a big negative was $463 million and that's on that $1.4 billion decline in sales. Price realization, which has been fairly significantly negative most of the year moderated quarter over quarter in this quarter. It was negative $80 million, and most of that was, as I mentioned on the prior page, Resource Industries. Cost reduction variable $91 million; period, $401 million. So that's good. That's a continuation. And I would mention that we had more incentive compensation in 2015 than we did 2016, but in the fourth quarter, it wasn't a factor. We had very little in both fourth quarters. So this $492 million all but was not affected hardly at all by the short-term incentive pay. Currency was pretty neutral. Financial Products was down a bit. They had less gains on the sale of securities in their insurance business. There was a little bit more loss, and that's a result of, I think, lower used equipment prices on repossessed and returned equipment. And their volume was lower, the earning assets were down. And that's – in some ways it's a progression of what's happened to our sales over the last few years. Our sales are down, so the amount of what they're financing is down a bit as well. Restructuring costs in the quarter were quite a bit less than the fourth quarter of 2015. And I'm going to talk a little bit more about restructuring costs here in a minute. Then we have a couple of big negatives. Mark-to-market losses, that's essentially the present value of the future liability of our pension and benefit plans. It was a loss of $985 million this year versus $214 million a year ago, and that's essentially because interest rates on high-quality, long-term bonds declined slightly in the year. Goodwill impairment was $595 million, and that was in our Surface Mining & Technology business. We impaired about half of the goodwill in their business. And on the final other line we had legal charges in the fourth quarter of last year that we didn't have this year, and that's most of that difference. So that's a bit of a walk through operating profit. Let's turn to page 7. Let's make a few comments about the full year. Sales were down from – and revenues – from $47 billion to about $38.5 billion. That's an 18% drop. Profit per share in 2015 was $4.18, and again this year it was a loss of $0.11. If you take out items that we're adjusting for, and again that's the mark-to-market, the goodwill, restructuring costs, and the tax impairment, we were at $3.42. And that's a little bit better than our final outlook of the year that we gave at the end of the third quarter. That was $3.25. We ended up at $3.42. So that's good. Again, the drivers of the adjusted profit change on the bottom right are very similar to what happened in the quarter. We had lower sales volume but a lot of cost reduction that offset that, or at least offset a part of it, about half in fact. So that's a little on the full year. Let's move to page 8 and talk a little more about cost reduction. I mentioned this earlier, but we had $492 million in the fourth quarter. For the year, it was over $2.3 billion of lower costs. And if you go down to the bottom, the three little boxes that start on the right, there was a piece of that that is related to short-term incentive compensation, and there's a Q&A in the back of the release that has all the numbers for the quarter and the year for that. But a little over $300 million of that $2.3 billion was incentive compensation lower. If you move into the middle, we had good material cost reduction again for the year, and it's a combination of commodity-related prices versus 2015 and then, as always, even without commodities, we do a lot of work every year on sourcing and design to lower costs, and that was a positive. And then on the most significant item on the left, our restructuring, and that is reducing people, reducing floor space, consolidating functions and facilities, and we've done quite a lot of that. In fact, if you turn to page 9 here, we'll cover restructuring – the big restructuring that we announced a little over a year ago. I thought this might be a good kind of recap on what's happened. On September 24 of 2015, we had a big press release that covered a number of fairly significant actions that we were planning to take. And in that release, we said we were going to close or consolidate about 20 facilities, which would reduce manufacturing floor space by about 10% and take about 10,000 people out of our workforce. We said that it would cost about $2 billion to do that, about $1.6 billion of it cash and about $400 million noncash, which would have been primarily asset-related expenses. And we also said when it was fully implemented, we would save about $1.5 billion annually going forward, and we thought that would take a few years to complete. So if we go on to page 10, let's kind of talk through a little bit what's happened. And I realize there are a lot of words on this page, but we've either completed or announced or are in the process of implementing virtually everything that was in our press release from the third quarter of 2015 and then some. That's involved the consolidation and closure of – actually ended up more than 30 facilities and about 14% of floor space. We said we were looking to take down the workforce by about 10,000. It's actually declined about 16,000 from the end of the third quarter of 2015. Now, restructuring costs in 2015 and 2016 have been about $1.9 billion, and our outlook today anticipates an additional $500 million in 2017. Now, if you add that up, that's a bit more than what we said in that release, and that's because a little of it was actually for programs that predated that announcement. And since then, we've actually done more. Just as an example, we announced the shutdown of our on-highway truck business earlier in 2016, and that was not something we had previously anticipated. So costs are a little bit more than we had talked about that September. The flip side of that, though, is savings appear to be quite higher. So if you take out short-term incentive comp, that's really not cost reduction related to any of the actions that we've taken, and so it's not fair to count the benefit of that. So if you take that out, at the end of 2016, we had taken out about $1.5 billion from our period cost structure since 2014. And we – to go to the next page, page 11, we're expecting more reduction in our cost structure, again, not including inflation and short-term incentive of about another $500 million this year. So that means by the time we get to the end of 2017, we'll be looking for our period cost structure to be down a couple billion dollars, which is a bit more than we said in the third quarter of 2015, and that's because we're doing more than we anticipated then. Now, all those numbers both on the cost side and the estimated benefit side, they do not include two large facilities that we're currently contemplating. We've announced both of these
Operator:
Thank you. Our first question today is coming from Nicole Deblase. Please announce your affiliation and then pose your question.
Nicole Deblase - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Yes. Thanks. It's Deutsche Bank. Good morning, guys.
Bradley M. Halverson - Caterpillar, Inc.:
Good morning.
Nicole Deblase - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
So I guess starting with the revenue outlook, I know you gave some color about this in December, but the year-on-year decline that you are forecasting, what are you embedding by segment? Is it similar across all three segments, or are there certain segments where the decline is going to be steeper?
Michael Lynn DeWalt - Caterpillar, Inc.:
Yes. Good question. First off, the decline is not very much, it's $1 billion. Roughly half of that is currency translation related, not an industry or volume decline. And of what's left probably the most significant decline is in Energy & Transportation. Again, it's not a lot, but like on my last slide I talked about Transportation being weaker. So we see a bit of a decline in rail and marine. Power gen, particularly in the Mideast has been tough and industrial engines down a little bit for Ag and loose engines we sell to gen set packagers. So probably of the piece that's not currency translation is probably a little heavier E&T. Construction, we would see as relatively flat, and our Resource Industries, I think the mining part of it should be pretty close to flat. And we're still a little pessimistic on large construction equipment which come out of Resource Industries. We had quite a bit of rental load and a higher level of sales in late 2015 and throughout much of the first half of 2017 and that's kind of tailed off in the second half of – I'm sorry, 2016, tailed off in the last half of 2016 and we are not overly optimistic about that in 2017. So I hope that helps, Nicole.
Nicole Deblase - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Yes. That's really helpful, Mike, and just for my follow-up, I guess thinking about restructuring costs, you are stepping up your efforts again in 2017, $500 million. I know that there's those two plants that you talked about that could actually present upside to that, but do you see additional restructuring actions coming through in 2018, or do you think that we're coming to the end of the restructuring initiative?
Michael Lynn DeWalt - Caterpillar, Inc.:
Well, you never want to say never. I mean, we did more in 2016 than we had expected when we announced the big program in late 2015. So it's hard to say that nothing else would come up. I mean, you don't have a crystal ball. I think much of what is actually in 2017 as a cost is just a continuation of the things that are already in flight. And the two things – the two that we announced that we're contemplating, Aurora and Gosselies, would certainly add to that some in 2017 and probably still some in 2018. But beyond that, on the books right now, there's nothing else substantial that we're contemplating that hasn't happened. But, again, I certainly wouldn't want to try to make it sound like that's an ironclad nothing else will come up, and nothing else will happen. You just don't know what the world's going to do. But those two items would be – other than the things that are already in flight, the only big new things that are currently on the horizon.
Nicole Deblase - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Okay. Thanks, Mike. I'll pass it on.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question today is coming from Ross Gilardi. Please announce your affiliation, then pose your question.
Ross P. Gilardi - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Good morning. Bank of America. Just a couple questions, guys. Just first on Construction, it's great to see the pricing flattening out, which has been a big headwind this year, but your closest competitor in North America is out there guiding to a 3.5% margin, and basically lost money last quarter, and you guys are still putting up 9.3%, which – more power to you for that, but you're flagging ongoing challenges in the North American market. I mean, is the issue that you just need to cut production a lot more aggressively to rebalance where we are in the U.S., because I would think given all the headwinds you've flagged that your margins would be a lot lower right now than they actually are?
Michael Lynn DeWalt - Caterpillar, Inc.:
Let me try to address that, Ross. We're not looking for major declines in North America next year. On balance, Construction looks – our Construction industry segment looks fairly neutral year-to-year. Our view is that the Middle East and North America will be a little softer, and Asia Pacific may be up a little, but we're not signaling some large continuing decline. I wouldn't want to give you that impression whatsoever. And we have a range out there. And you never know if economic growth is faster than we think, if tax reform comes sooner, if infrastructure spending comes sooner, maybe we can be towards the high end. So I don't want to make it sound like we're super negative on Construction, because that's not the case. In terms of the margins, I'm not sure what our competitors are doing, but I can tell you we've been out there working the cost reduction pretty substantially in Construction, in E&T and in Resource Industries and in Corporate elements. I mean, we've been taking out costs pretty aggressively. And I think that that has contributed to the Construction margins that you see. I don't think there's production that needs to be cut substantially to make it better. Dealers took out inventory in the fourth quarter about the same as they normally do, about the same as they took out in the prior year. So I think inventories are in reasonable shape. I think production is in reasonable shape. And when a little volume comes back, I think those margins will go up.
Ross P. Gilardi - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Okay, great. Thank you, Mike. And then just my follow-up is on the backlog and the sequential pickup that you noted in Construction and Resources. Resources has obviously been through a tough time for many years, but on Construction, is that a seasonal move, or could you give any more color on where that's coming from? Are you seeing an actual pickup in order intake in North America? Or anything you can provide there would be helpful.
Michael Lynn DeWalt - Caterpillar, Inc.:
Yeah, we did. Actually, we had decent orders in the fourth quarter. Obviously, we built backlog, and they were up from prior year reasonable double digits. So that's a good sign, but between – that's machines, that's RI and CI. So that's good. Hopefully, that'll continue.
Ross P. Gilardi - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Got it. Well, thanks very much, Mike, for everything and best of luck on your retirement.
Michael Lynn DeWalt - Caterpillar, Inc.:
Thanks, Ross. Looking forward to it.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question today is coming from Jerry Revich. Please announce your affiliation, then pose your question.
Jerry Revich - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Hi. Good morning. It's Goldman Sachs, and congratulations, Mike. It's been really nice working with you.
Michael Lynn DeWalt - Caterpillar, Inc.:
Thanks, Jerry.
Jerry Revich - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
I'm wondering if you could talk about the timing of the final decision on the Aurora and Belgian facilities. And separately, can you talk about the cost reduction carryover that you expect in 2018 from actions that'll be completed this year?
Michael Lynn DeWalt - Caterpillar, Inc.:
Yeah, on the first one, we will just take them separately. With Aurora, we need to provide between the time of our announcement and the time that it's kind of finalized, we need to provide time for the local unions to look at it and see if there's anything they can do to contribute to that. I mean you have a waiting period there. And in Belgium, it's a little bit kind of the same way except the government is involved in addition to the local unions. So we'll hopefully get the decisions made on both of those as soon as we can.
Jerry Revich - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
And, Mike...
Michael Lynn DeWalt - Caterpillar, Inc.:
Oh – go ahead. What was the second part of that again, Ross?
Jerry Revich - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
It's Jerry, Mike. The second part of the question was the carryover benefit 2018 versus 2017 from the restructuring actions that will be completed this year?
Michael Lynn DeWalt - Caterpillar, Inc.:
Yes. We have about $500 million of period cost reductions in for next year, and a lot of that is carryover from the actions taken this year.
Jerry Revich - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Sorry, so that's $500 million carryover 2018 versus 2017?
Michael Lynn DeWalt - Caterpillar, Inc.:
Well, we have $500 million of additional period cost reduction next year, and again, that doesn't include a little labor inflation and incentive pay. Outside of those two items, we have our period cost coming down $500 million, and what I'm saying is a decent part of that would be carryover from actions that we took in 2016.
Jerry Revich - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Yeah. Sorry, Mike, the question was on 2018 versus 2017. Are you able to comment on it?
Michael Lynn DeWalt - Caterpillar, Inc.:
Oh, I'm sorry. I'm sorry. No, I don't have – I mean, certainly 2018 would definitely be higher in terms of benefits from restructuring. But at this point, we don't have a number for 2018.
Jerry Revich - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Thank you.
Michael Lynn DeWalt - Caterpillar, Inc.:
And it will depend on what happens in Aurora and Gosselies and whether or not a decision actually gets made to close them or not.
Jerry Revich - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question today is coming from Eli Lustgarten. Please announce your affiliation and pose your question.
Eli Lustgarten - Longbow Research LLC:
Longbow Securities. Good morning, everyone, and welcome, Jim, to our club and we are going to miss you, Mike, but that's what happens when you get to middle age, I guess.
Michael Lynn DeWalt - Caterpillar, Inc.:
You're probably the only guy on today that's actually older than me.
Eli Lustgarten - Longbow Research LLC:
Probably. Don't remind me. Just a couple. You went through the segment outlook by revenue or the impact from the low sales. Can you talk a little bit about profitability? Your press release says that you expect dealers to take less inventory out in 2017 than 2016. Does that hold up the Construction margins, so margins basically could be similar or up a little bit? Same thing with the lower volume coming and the impact in Energy & Transportation and how weak should we expect that to get or is that just take the 30% flow-through that you suggest and how close can Resources get towards the breakeven level given the outlook that is taking place?
Michael Lynn DeWalt - Caterpillar, Inc.:
Good questions, Eli. On dealer inventory, I talked a little bit about 2016 and 2015. For 2017, in reality, when we get towards the end of the year, what's actually going to happen with dealer inventory will depend a lot on how dealers feel about 2018, I mean, you could paint a scenario with, again, tax reform and infrastructure spending and lesser regulation and more investment in energy. If all that happens, maybe dealers will be more bullish about 2018 and want to add inventory. So it's a little bit hard at this juncture to get very definitive about that. And I would say in our sales forecast, right now, again, we're looking for each of the segments to not be far from flat. I mean, E&T down a bit on volume, RI down a little bit on volume. We're counting on a little more cost reduction, but the flip side of that is we do have a pretty sizable increase in incentive pay. And cost reduction and incentive pay is kind of universal across the company, so I wouldn't expect big variations in each of the segments. You specifically asked about RI profitability. They have – relative to their sales, they've done a lot of cost reduction. And given where their sales are, I won't comment on whether they're right at or more or less breakeven at the sales level, but it would be pretty close. I mean, it's – they're not far from breakeven at what's in the outlook for next year, which is 2016 probably minus a couple hundred million. So they're getting pretty close, and it's a result of a lot of good work on cost reduction, a lot of capacity – or not capacity, floor space taken out, a lot of head count reduction.
Eli Lustgarten - Longbow Research LLC:
And just a quick follow-up. What our surveys show when we talk to Cat dealers is they are extremely optimistic about end markets, but most of the dealers have indicated that because of the uncertainty that we talk about because of politics that they are planning to age their rental fleet this year waiting for more definitive action. Are you seeing any of that or hearing that, that the problems with the construction industry, if there is a problem this year in the U.S. is more on the rental side than it is in the end-user side?
Michael Lynn DeWalt - Caterpillar, Inc.:
Well, certainly, on some of the larger construction equipment, we had a higher rental load in – earlier in 2016. So I think we see that being down a little bit, particularly on large product. But I think the sentiment is what's important, not so much just the dealer – or the rental fleet age point. I think it's – there are a lot of positive signals out there, but it's not really turned into higher equipment sales yet. And I think it's – there's still a bit to play out. But I think we see and we hear the sort of general optimism about end markets. We hear that as well. Quoting activity, orders a little bit have been more positive in RI. And again, those are longer lead times, so it's probably more of a 2018 story than a 2017 story. But yeah, I think we sense more optimism.
Eli Lustgarten - Longbow Research LLC:
Yeah. All right. Thank you very much.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question today is coming from Robert Wertheimer. Please announce your affiliation and then pose your question.
Robert Wertheimer - Barclays Capital, Inc.:
It's Barclays, and good morning. My question is on Solar really. If you look across Caterpillar, you've got a lot of businesses that are well below normal troughs, whether you want to do Brazil, as you mentioned, or Resources or locomotives probably in the U.S. or just a bunch of them. And Solar is probably the one that's hung on and you mentioned that the backlog was pretty good in the press release. But could you give a sense as you look at permitting, or you look at pipeline activity a couple years out, or you think about how much you have delivered into offshore oil this year that maybe was specced out two years or three years ago? Do you feel like you are still at risk of having that business slide or is it just at the right level when you – not just the backlog, but when you look at the activity level further out?
D. James Umpleby - Caterpillar, Inc.:
Yeah, this is Jim Umpleby. I'll take that one. If you think about Solar's business, there's a variety of elements to it. One is – and we talked about earlier on the call is the gas compression business in North America. And that business has continued to be quite strong, and people will often look at the CapEx in the pipeline industry and try to make a correlation with Solar's business. While there is some correlation, I'd urge caution there because much of the CapEx is driven by new pipeline construction, and much of Solar's sales into gas compression in North America is adding horsepower to existing pipelines. So Solar can still have a strong level of business and it wouldn't necessarily be reflected in the macro level CapEx number for the industry. So Solar's business, again, gas compression has hung in there. Their oil-related businesses, generally gas turbine driven gen sets for offshore oil and gas production facilities, has been down for some time, just given for obvious reasons with the decline in oil prices. Their customer services business, of course, Solar is a direct business. They handle both the parts and the service directly, and that business has been relatively stable as well. So I think to put it all together, it's not a situation where Solar has been living off of backlogs for oil, like you mentioned. It's really been a strong gas compression story. And again, we think that business is stable.
Robert Wertheimer - Barclays Capital, Inc.:
Thanks very much. That's great. And, Mike, congratulations and well deserved. Thanks.
Michael Lynn DeWalt - Caterpillar, Inc.:
Thanks, Rob.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question today is coming from Ann Duignan. Please announce your affiliation and then pose your question.
Ann P. Duignan - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Hi. JPMorgan and same thoughts from me here, Mike. I'm jealous. Anyway, my question is more related to the new administration and if you could – you gave us on slide 12 the positives and the concerns with regard to what you are looking at as you move into 2017 from a sales and profitability standpoint, but could you create two buckets of the new administration and what the net positives you might be contemplating versus the net negatives? We think of things like what if net interest expense goes away, what does that do to your financial services business? What does a strong dollar do? Are you a net exporter? If you could just break down two buckets for us, that would be fantastic.
D. James Umpleby - Caterpillar, Inc.:
Hi, Ann. This is Jim Umpleby. I'll take part of that. As we look at what's happening in the conversation in Washington both within the administration and Congress, there's a number of things that we're very encouraged by. We've long been an advocate for, of course, infrastructure. You know the infrastructure in the U.S. is in dire need of maintenance and modernization. And we are very encouraged by the bipartisan support for much needed infrastructure bill. It would be good for both the country and for Caterpillar. Obviously, there is timing issues there in terms of if in fact that happens, and when it could occur. We are also encouraged by discussions around taxes. We've been a longstanding advocate for overhaul in the U.S. tax code. Many of our competitors, of course, are outside the United States and we need a tax policy in the U.S. that puts us on a level playing field, so we can compete fairly. So again, we are encouraged by that as well. Smart regulations, again, another positive thing. So, again, generally all in given the conversations that are going on in Washington, we think it's positive for economic growth, jobs growth, and we are encouraged by that.
Michael Lynn DeWalt - Caterpillar, Inc.:
Ann, you made a point about FX currency and again...
Ann P. Duignan - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Yes. Can you talk a little bit about the risks, if net interest expensing goes away, if the dollar strengthens, what that does to competitiveness? Are you a net exporter? A little bit more balanced view, if you like.
Michael Lynn DeWalt - Caterpillar, Inc.:
Yeah. So I would just add a couple of things to Jim. One, we have a cost structure that's spread around the world, so – and you can see that in today's release. Well, actually, there was not a lot of movement, but over the last few quarters. The moving value of the U.S. dollar, it can change our sales, translate into more or less. But from a translation standpoint, we have a lot of costs outside the U.S. as well as sales. So it has not had that big an impact on our financial results. So that's been a good thing and the result of work-over will be 40 years to diversify the currency that the cost base is in. So I think, to a large degree, currency doesn't have too huge an impact. Now, certainly, there are some competitive impacts, like Komatsu if they're producing more in Japan and exporting to the U.S. So a particularly strong dollar against the yen can impact competitiveness, but in the ranges that we're at now, it's not something that's abnormal.
Ann P. Duignan - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Okay, Mike. Thanks. I appreciate that, but really what I was getting at is would you be willing to share whether Cat is a net exporter?
Michael Lynn DeWalt - Caterpillar, Inc.:
Yeah. Absolutely, we're a net exporter. Absolutely, no doubt.
Ann P. Duignan - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Okay. And net interest expensing on the FinCo?
Michael Lynn DeWalt - Caterpillar, Inc.:
Sorry. I don't know the answer to that, Ann.
Ann P. Duignan - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Okay. No problem. I'll leave it there. Thank you and best wishes.
Michael Lynn DeWalt - Caterpillar, Inc.:
Okay.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question today is coming from David Raso. Please announce your affiliation, then pose your question.
David Raso - Evercore ISI Group:
Evercore ISI. First question, the sales cadence for 2017 in the context of the down 3% or so midpoint, do you see a quarter in 2017 where sales turn positive and if you maybe kind of give us some idea if you think it's midyear or late in the year? Just some perspective.
Michael Lynn DeWalt - Caterpillar, Inc.:
Yeah. I think if you look at the things we mentioned in the release and I've kind of talked about today, I think you can probably get your mind around the idea that the second half of the year probably has the most upside. All the things that we've talked about, tax reform, better economic growth. That's certainly not impacting what's on the books, getting produced and shipped here early in the year. In fact, probably for the first quarter, I think you can play into your first quarter thoughts. Basically kind of what's happening for the year will probably happen for the first quarter, so sales down a little, profit down a little versus a year ago. So I think if there's upside, it'll probably come later in the year, particularly if we start seeing better economic growth, we get tax reform kind of nailed down so people actually know what's coming. The more that happens, the sooner the better.
David Raso - Evercore ISI Group:
And then regarding the segment margins. I mean, the framework here is you're saying sales are down 3%, EPS is down 15%, right, excluding extraordinary items?
Michael Lynn DeWalt - Caterpillar, Inc.:
Right. Yeah.
David Raso - Evercore ISI Group:
And thinking of it as an equipment company, Cat financials probably say it's worth 4% of that down 15%. Tax rate, up a little bit is worth, call it, 1%.
Michael Lynn DeWalt - Caterpillar, Inc.:
Right.
David Raso - Evercore ISI Group:
So we're still saying the equipment company is down 3%; EBIT basically implied about down 10%. But when you think about your comments on Resource Industries, you're saying they will cut their losses. You didn't say break even, but you said, call it, losing $150 million. And if CI margins then are flat on flat revs, it is implying a pretty big decremental on E&T. So just so we walk off the call understanding, I guess, really the interplay between RI and the E&T, are we saying the E&T margins are down fairly notably?
Michael Lynn DeWalt - Caterpillar, Inc.:
No. We didn't provide any guidance on any margin by segment. I was just kind of reacting to, on RI, is it going to be at breakeven? My comment was probably not – but probably not far from it. And another point, David, and this doesn't really relate to your question but I just wanted to – of all the year-end adjustments that we had, the one that was included in segment margins was the goodwill adjustment. And I know you know that. So we have about 30% decrementals for the company next year on the lower sales, and we a have higher tax rate, as you mentioned. Those two items – and the 30% decremental is a little bit higher than we've had over the last couple of years, and that's mostly because we have a lot more incentive comp. I mean, we paid very little this year and you know how that is a little bit of a moving target. Each year, it kind of gets reset at the beginning of the year. So at this point, that is a headwind for next year. And outside of that, I think margins will be overall fairly similar to last year.
David Raso - Evercore ISI Group:
Well, that's what I'm saying. I'm not trying to paint a rosy picture here on your guidance, but it doesn't seem – if you get any RI improvement and given all the restructuring...
Michael Lynn DeWalt - Caterpillar, Inc.:
Yeah.
David Raso - Evercore ISI Group:
...and even take your comment of not quite breakeven but again, let's say we lose $150 million. You would think CI profits should be steady versus a flat sales. So we're saying the hit on the EBIT's got to be E&T. And I'm not sure why the hit should be that big.
Michael Lynn DeWalt - Caterpillar, Inc.:
Yeah. Again, we've not provided any separate guidance on any of the segment margins. And remember that incentive pay is going to be a headwind for all of them.
David Raso - Evercore ISI Group:
Okay. I appreciate it. And good luck, Mike. I appreciate it.
Michael Lynn DeWalt - Caterpillar, Inc.:
Okay, David.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question today is coming from Jamie Cook. Please announce your affiliation and pose your question.
Jamie L. Cook - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC:
Hi. Good morning. Credit Suisse. And congrats, Mike. I get the sense that we will miss you more than you will miss us and also congratulations, Jim. I guess two questions, one for Mike and one for Jim. Jim, I guess as you sit here as the new CEO, can you talk about sort of your approach to guidance relative to Cat historically and how we should think about that and the precedent that you want to set here coming in as the new CEO? And then I guess my follow-up question, Mike or Jim, because you will know this as well, on the oil and gas side, you guys talked about Solar and the visibility that you have there, but what are you seeing on the reciprocating engine side? I know orders had been down dramatically. I'm just wondering if we are seeing any improvement there or quoting activity. Any color you could provide. Thank you.
D. James Umpleby - Caterpillar, Inc.:
Good morning, Jamie. First part of your question, our outlook is based on input we receive from customers, dealers, market trends. Maybe the short answer to your question is it's not our intent to be overly optimistic or pessimistic. We'll hit it down the middle of the fairway, to use a golf analogy, and give you our best view based on all the various inputs that we receive. In terms of your oil and gas question, we expect our recip business to be up slightly. As you know, there was a lot of carnage in that industry over the last few years. A lot of equipment was stacked. But we are seeing more activity in that area which is positive, but we'll have to wait and see how it all plays out. Stability of oil prices is very important, and it would certainly help to have the price go up a bit more.
Jamie L. Cook - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC:
All righty. Thanks. I'll get back in queue.
Michael Lynn DeWalt - Caterpillar, Inc.:
Okay.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question today is coming from Andrew Casey. Please announce your affiliation and then pose your question.
Michael Lynn DeWalt - Caterpillar, Inc.:
Andy, do we have you?
Andrew M. Casey - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
Yeah, sorry about that.
Michael Lynn DeWalt - Caterpillar, Inc.:
No problem.
Andrew M. Casey - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
Couldn't miss an opportunity to say goodbye, Mike. Good luck.
Michael Lynn DeWalt - Caterpillar, Inc.:
It's been a long time.
Andrew M. Casey - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
Yeah, no kidding. And welcome, Jim. A question on the flattish pricing in Construction. Is that a reflection of the competitive environment getting less aggressive, the year-over-year comps getting easier, or is it potentially a shift in how the company is looking at the balance between profitability and market share?
Michael Lynn DeWalt - Caterpillar, Inc.:
Well, that is a very good question. And I guess in some ways, it's probably a little bit of all of it. We had, I would say, better comps. If you look at the pricing environment, it's – I wouldn't be saying that it's gotten better or it's easier or competitors are out there raising prices. That's not the case. It was worse in total, I don't remember what the separate number was for the year, but for the company for the year we were well over $700 million-ish negative. I think what's happened is that stabilized. It doesn't look like it's getting any worse. I don't think the pricing environment is any better on an absolute basis, but we don't see it getting kind of worse from here. We do use our operating and execution model, and you don't want to be doing silly things. You don't want to, for example, have big sales discounts on products you don't make much money on. So I think we're trying to have the owning – or the operating and execution model guide us on where to spend our money on sales variance and discounting. But I think the main answer to your question is the comps have kind of started to flatten out.
Andrew M. Casey - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
Okay, thanks. And then a separate question on Resource Industries. You mentioned the parts demand continued to sequentially increase. Did you see that same sort of sequential increase in rebuild activity? And then for the backlog improvement, can you talk about if that was concentrated in a particular region or more broad-based?
Michael Lynn DeWalt - Caterpillar, Inc.:
Yeah. So I don't get actual reporting on rebuild, but I can tell you for RI rebuild is the major driver of – or is a major driver of parts sales. So if I had to speculate here, I would say the answer to that is probably yes, because that's a good driver of parts sales. And I don't think there's been enough of an increase in the backlog for regional differences to matter that much. And I don't have the numbers in front of me, but I did look at them, and it wasn't enough for me to say, ah, we need to make this point that it was all here or here. So probably nothing yet there to get too excited about.
Andrew M. Casey - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
Okay. Thanks and good luck, Mike.
Michael Lynn DeWalt - Caterpillar, Inc.:
Okay. So I think we are going to stop the Q&A there for a moment. I want to turn the floor. We have a couple minutes left. I want to turn the floor back over to our CEO, Jim Umpleby, for some closing comments.
D. James Umpleby - Caterpillar, Inc.:
All right. Thanks, Mike. I just wanted to take a moment to add my thanks to Mike for all his contributions to CAT over the last 35 years, 36 years.
Bradley M. Halverson - Caterpillar, Inc.:
36 years.
D. James Umpleby - Caterpillar, Inc.:
And we wish you all the best in retirement. And for everyone on the call, thank you for calling in this morning, we certainly appreciate your interest. Thank you.
Michael Lynn DeWalt - Caterpillar, Inc.:
All right. With that, we will sign off. Thank you very much, everyone.
Operator:
Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. This does conclude today's conference call. You may disconnect your phone lines at this time, and have a wonderful day. Thank you for your participation.
Executives:
Michael Lynn DeWalt - Caterpillar, Inc. Douglas R. Oberhelman - Caterpillar, Inc. D. James Umpleby - Caterpillar, Inc.
Analysts:
Andrew M. Casey - Wells Fargo Securities LLC Sameer Rathod - Macquarie Capital (USA), Inc. Jamie L. Cook - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker) Ross P. Gilardi - Bank of America Merrill Lynch David Raso - Evercore Group LLC Robert Wertheimer - Barclays Capital, Inc. Joseph John O'Dea - Vertical Research Partners LLC Mili Pothiwala - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC Ann P. Duignan - JPMorgan Securities LLC
Operator:
Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Caterpillar Third Quarter 2016 Results Conference Call. At this time, all participants have been placed on a listen-only mode and we will open the floor for your questions and comments after the presentation. It is now my pleasure to turn the floor over to your host, Mike DeWalt. Sir, the floor is yours.
Michael Lynn DeWalt - Caterpillar, Inc.:
Thank you very much, Paul, and good morning, everyone on the call. I'm Mike DeWalt, Caterpillar's Vice President of Financial Services. On the call with me this morning, we have
Douglas R. Oberhelman - Caterpillar, Inc.:
Yeah, good morning, everybody. It's Doug Oberhelman here and I just want to make a few opening comments and we'll get back to Mike and normal conference call stuff. I want to talk a little bit about the succession planning process the board used, just make a few comments on that. And we've talked about this before in analyst conferences and so on, but we have a very robust succession planning process that goes all the way down to almost the first levels of management. We review and spend a lot of time on that every year. And every year, at least once, usually in October, we go through that with the board for the, say, the top 300, top 350 people and talk about succession, the future, some names. And then, during the year, we try to introduce the board to a lot of those names and individuals, as we have been doing. I certainly have been active in that. I was very adamant that I wanted, when my time was up, and I'll be 64 in February. When I retire at the end of March, I will be 64 years old, with just a few months to go before I'm 65, pretty much right on the process. There's no drama here contrary to a lot of stuff that's going around. But I was adamant with the board that I wanted a very good, sound process to use that they were happy with it, our executive office team was happy with it at the end and all the executive officers then would go right on through performance and not miss a beat. I think we've achieved that. I picked the timing. I've been very much supportive of Jim. I'm very much supportive of the full executive office. And as we announced a week ago yesterday, I will be CEO until the end of December, and I will be Executive Chairman until the end of March. We did make a change in governance with a split Chair and CEO role. I think most of you know we've had a shareholder proposal on that for several years in a row and we have a couple of large shareholders that are fundamentally for that. They push that at transition times. And obviously, this was a time the board considered that because we're in transition. Dave Calhoun will be the Executive Chairman come April 1. I will tell you that I've had a wonderful relationship and extensive and also frequent with the current residing Director, Ed Rust. And we talk frequently before, during and after every single board meeting and have for years since I've been in the job. David's role will not be anything different than Jim. Jim will run the company and David will coordinate the board as Executive Chair. Just a change in governance, both work very well. I've had great luck with the presiding director situation. And I'm sure Jim and Dave will have great luck with the split Chair, CEO role as well. Again, no drama, just a different way of doing things, and I think we'll carry on and not even miss a beat. So with that little preamble, I will tell you I'm excited to move into the next phase. I'm very excited for Jim and the executive team that we have here. I feel the company is positioned. We've been through an awful rough period the last four years, as all of you have known and endured, but I do think we're set up for the future. So, Mike, if you'd take over.
Michael Lynn DeWalt - Caterpillar, Inc.:
Actually, Jim.
D. James Umpleby - Caterpillar, Inc.:
Sure.
Douglas R. Oberhelman - Caterpillar, Inc.:
I'm sorry, Jim. I meant to introduce Jim Umpleby officially. And, Jim, so if you have a couple comments, that would be great. Thank you. Sorry.
D. James Umpleby - Caterpillar, Inc.:
Thanks, Doug, and hello again to everyone on the line. It's an honor and privilege to be selected as the next CEO of Caterpillar. I've worked with Doug for many years. I have great respect for him and am proud to be part of his team that has kept Caterpillar strong throughout some of the most difficult market conditions that we faced. Like other incoming CEOs, I'll pull together a team of leaders that will refresh our enterprise strategy in the coming months. Again, it's an honor to have been chosen to lead this great company. Thank you. Mike, back to you.
Michael Lynn DeWalt - Caterpillar, Inc.:
All righty, let's get on to the quarter and the outlook. Today, we'll be walking through a short slide deck, similar to what we've done for the past few quarters, and then we'll move on to the Q&A. Now would be a great time, if you don't have that slide deck in front of you, you can pick it up on our Caterpillar.com website, where the conference call Webcast link was. Just as a reminder, this call is copyrighted by Caterpillar, Inc. and any use, recording or transmission of any portion of the call without the consent of Caterpillar is strictly prohibited. If you'd like a copy of today's call transcript, we will be posting it in the Investors section of that same Caterpillar.com website and it'll be in a section labeled Results Webcast. So if you go to page two on this morning's slide deck, you'll see our forward-looking statements. And I am quite certain that this morning, we're going to be discussing quite a bit of forward-looking information. And that always involves risks and uncertainties and assumptions that could cause our actual results to differ materially from the forward-looking information. In addition to page 2 of the slide deck, a discussion of some of those factors that either individually or in aggregate could make results differ can be found in our cautionary statements under item 1A, which is risk factors from our Form 10-K filed with the SEC earlier this year, and in the forward-looking statements language in today's release. Now in addition, a reconciliation of non-GAAP measures that are used in both our financial release and this presentation can be found in both the financial release and the last page of this slide deck. One more thing, actually, before we get started on the slide deck, and I know that with Doug's announced retirement and with Jim replacing him, I suspect you have a lot of questions for Jim about his long-term strategy. But I would say since Jim found out he's going to be CEO just about 10 days ago, now is probably not the best time for those kind of questions. So what we're going to ask is today, we're going to try and keep the call here to our third quarter results, the outlook for the fourth quarter and kind of our preliminary view of sales for next year. So with that, let's start on the slide deck and if you could flip to page 4, and on page 4, that's the high-level summary of what happened in the third quarter to sales and revenues and profit. So we were down $1.8 billion in the quarter, continued on the same trajectory we've been most of the year. Profit per share dropped from $0.94 per share last year in the third quarter to $0.48 this quarter. Quite a bit of that was from more restructuring cost. Certainly in the quarter, we had asset impairments, additional asset impairments, related to our Resource Industries business and restructuring costs were $226 million higher than a year ago. If you exclude the restructuring cost, profit per share was down $0.20, which I think is pretty good performance on $1.8 billion drop in sales. And that'll be a theme, I think, across the next few slides that we talk about. Cost reduction was very good. So if we go to the next page, it'll walk us through the change in sales in a little bit more detail. So the most significant decline was in Energy & Transportation. We were down a little over $800 million. And Transportation, in fact, this is I think the first time all year, we've said that oil and gas was not the most significant reason, but this quarter it was Transportation followed by power gen, oil and gas and industrial engines. Resource Industries was down $465 million. That's a little over 25%, and it's been down about in that range every quarter this year, so not a big change. And it's actually split between mining products and large construction. We don't talk much about construction in Resource Industries, but we have large products like articulated trucks, some of the smaller off-highway trucks, some of the large bulldozers. Some of the large wheel loaders are used in construction and a pretty good decline this quarter in Resource Industries was from construction equipment. And we're seeing that, quite a bit of that, in North America. For the Construction Industries segment, we were down $521 million. And again, about 2/3s of that was volume. North America was the most significant region and about 1/3 of that was price. So the total decline then is $1.8 billion. So let's maybe flip to the next slide, page 6, talk a little bit about profit, this is our normal waterfall chart. So on the left, the black bar is the third quarter operating profit from a year ago. And then, we're isolating what caused changes. So you can see, without a doubt, that $1.8 billion decline in sales and revenues drove a substantial impact on profit from lower volume. Price realization has remained a pretty decent-sized negative, about the same as versus a year ago, as last quarter; it was a $213 million this quarter. The next two bars are the positives, variable manufacturing costs. That's cost absorption. That's material cost. That's variable labor and overhead in our factories and that's been positive for all year. Period costs, we've done a lot of work to take structural costs out of the company. And we've actually performed very well on this all year long. And then, a couple bars to the right is the restructuring cost. If you look at the decline in operating profit, about half of the decline was from the restructuring costs. So excluding restructuring costs on the prior page, you saw we were down $0.20. It's a little over $200 million in operating profit. And if you look at that price realization bucket, had we not been in such a difficult pricing environment this quarter, we would've had enough variable and period cost reduction to essentially offset the impact of $1.8 billion in lower sales. Now, I'm going to ask you to do something I wouldn't normally do at this time. Let's just back up. Given that good cost performance, let's back up to the previous page one more time. So when we look at Energy & Transportation, their sales were down $818 million, but their profit on that level of sales decline was only off $111 million. I think that indicates great cost performance. Construction Industries, $521 million decline in sales and revenues, and $165 million of that was price realization. Despite that, their profit was only down $28 million. Resource Industries, mining and large construction, down $465 million in sales, but their profit was down only $35 million. So I think that when you look at the change in profit in the context with the change in sales, it just reinforces the point that I made a minute ago that cost reduction has been very good so far this year. So if we move on to page 7 and look at where we've been on cost reduction this year, you can see through the first nine months of the year were favorable, about $1.8 billion. And that breaks down into three major categories. The first is restructuring efforts. We've been on that path for a few years. We announced a fairly big series of restructuring actions last September. And with all those actions, we've reduced square footage, capacity and people. Material cost has been favorable this year. And I know it's tempting to always think about that as just commodity-based, but the fact of the matter is we've gotten more cost reduction from design and sourcing-related changes than we have from commodity prices. And then there's everything else and that includes short-term incentive pay. A little over $300 million of the $1.8 billion is from lower incentive pay this year, at least for our expectations. And so even without that, we're $1.5 billion of lower costs this year. So that's a little bit about the third quarter, again, a tough sales environment, very good progress on cost reduction across the board. Let's look at the outlook. We did lower the 2016 outlook. Previously, we were thinking $40 billion to $40.5 billion for the year and $2.75 profit per share, $3.55 without restructuring costs. Now, we've lowered that. We think sales and revenues are going to be about $39 billion this year, and profit will be $2.35 a share, or $3.25 excluding restructuring costs. Now, sales came down. So at the midpoint of the outlook, that's about $1.25 billion decline in sales and that came out relatively evenly across Construction Industries, Resource Industries and Energy & Transportation. Now, the decline for construction is particularly in North America. And the weakness in North American construction has impacted both our Construction Industries segment and, to some degree, Resource Industries for large equipment. So I think that's one of the bigger reasons for the decline in the outlook. In Energy & Transportation, we also took down rail. We had some business that we thought was going to ship in the second half, and it's been pushed out to later years. And we've also had some decline in oil and gas and that's mostly from service and overhaul work related to Solar. You always have a lot of questions about Solar. We were thinking Solar was going to be down about 10% this year. It looks like, based on where we're at now, it'll be closer to 15%. And most of that change is related to service and overhaul work, not new turbine sales. Power generation has also been down. It's been particularly weak in oil-producing regions. From a profit standpoint, our restructuring costs are about $100 million higher that we expect for the year. And most of that was from the additional asset write-offs that we had in Resource Industries in the third quarter. So we don't normally give quarterly guidance, but when we get to this point in the year, we have three quarters of actual and we have a full year forecast, so it's pretty easy to figure out what we're thinking about the fourth quarter. And based on this outlook, it implies about $10 billion of sales and revenues, $0.47 a share of profit and $0.67 excluding restructuring. If we move to the next page, page 9, I'll walk you through why on higher sales, we think profit in the fourth quarter is going to be bit lower. So if you look at the third quarter and the implied fourth quarter outlook, we have sales and revenue up about $800 million. Most all of that is in Energy & Transportation. We always have some seasonality in our fourth quarter sales, so this is probably not a surprise to you. We also have more locomotive shipments in the fourth quarter and particularly Tier 4 locomotives. And we have some large turnkey power generation projects in the fourth quarter. Profit on that higher sales, excluding the restructuring costs, we think will be about $0.18 lower. And, of course, one positive is higher volume. We do have a substantial offset of the higher volume on sales mix. And this is also not, I don't think, very unusual over the last couple of years. That's been the case for us and we've had lower margins in the fourth quarter, and they've tended to rebound then in the first quarter. And we think that's likely the case here as well. Cost absorption, one of the things that also happens commonly with us and it's partly related to the higher sales, we have usually a pretty good size inventory reduction in the fourth quarter. We are expecting that again this year and that we think will result in negative cost absorption. We had in the third quarter, because we lowered the outlook, we had a favorable year-to-date adjustment in the third quarter for incentive compensation. We certainly don't expect that to repeat in the fourth quarter. So third to fourth is going to be negative for that. And then, another item that we talk about quite a bit in the fourth quarter is a bit of seasonally higher costs at year-end. And we don't have any reason to believe this year will be any different than prior years. So we expect a little bit of a cost increase in the fourth quarter. So that's a little bit about the fourth quarter. Now, let's talk about 2017. That's page 10. Now, we usually provide a preliminary view of next year in our third quarter release, and so we're doing that again this year. It's always difficult at this time of the year to predict that. The year doesn't even start for a couple more months. But at this point in time, on balance, we're not expecting 2017 to be significantly different than 2016. That doesn't mean that it couldn't be different. That just means, at this point in time, it's a little hard to predict We try to give you some insight into our thinking here by providing a list of the positives and a list of the things that we're concerned about. And on the very first bullet, you'll see they're kind of the same thing, and that is commodity prices. So, on the plus side, commodity prices have improved from earlier this year. And with like oil, for example, it seemed to stabilize somewhere around $50. And certainly compared with where we were, that's good. That's a positive signal. On the concern side of that, we don't think commodity prices are still quite good enough to drive substantial sales increases next year. We would like to see commodity prices rise more next year. And if that happens, that, we think, logically would be upside for the second half of next year; if that doesn't happen, probably not upside then. On the positive side, construction in China, that's been generally positive this year, both our market position. We're doing a bit better than most of our competitors. And the market there has improved, and that's been good for us. If you look at today's release, for example, the one up sales increase that we have in our release is in construction in Asia. If memory serves me, we were up about 9% there. And we think as long as there is continued support for growth in China, that next year can be up as well. Construction sales in some other developing countries, particularly in places like Brazil where it's just been a very, very challenging situation, CIS is in that category, too, been a very, very challenging year for both
Operator:
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, the floor is now open for questions. And the first question is coming from Andrew Casey. Andrew, your line is live. Please announce your affiliation and pose your question.
Andrew M. Casey - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
Wells Fargo Securities. Good morning, everyone.
Michael Lynn DeWalt - Caterpillar, Inc.:
Morning, Andy.
Andrew M. Casey - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
On 2017, can you review some of the puts and takes we should consider when looking at the year, in addition to the revenue outlook you provided today?
Michael Lynn DeWalt - Caterpillar, Inc.:
Yeah.
Andrew M. Casey - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
And then, also, given the market outlook is pretty flat, are you considering any incremental cost removal actions?
Michael Lynn DeWalt - Caterpillar, Inc.:
Yeah, so as we said on sales, I will start with that. On balance, we're not seeing a significant difference, but we've said this in the release. I think we're much more cautious about the first half of the year. And the flattish for the year relies on a bit of improvement in the second half of the year. So I think to your point on costs, I would suspect as we wrap this up, we will be planning and trying to set a cost structure for something that's probably a little bit more conservative than where we're thinking sales for the year could be. So there will remain a very big focus on cost and cost reduction. I won't get into too many of the details yet. As you know, we're kind of in the middle of our planning process for next year right now, but I think some big things that you can certainly expect, one, we'll have a big headwind. I don't know how much yet, but we'll likely have a pretty sizable headwind on incentive compensation. This year, we're off of our outlook in most areas, off of our plan. So we'll have a less than expected short-term incentive comp this year for all of our employees. And something more normal going into next year could be a headwind of $500 million, $600 million, depending upon where the executive team and the board sets the target. So that would be a headwind. On the positive side, we've done very well on costs. We've taken out more cost as we've gone along this year. So we'll have some benefits from a carryover impact of that. So that should be a tailwind. We've done very well on material costs. And, again, much of the commodity benefit in the material costs with the rise in commodity prices has come out. But even without commodity changes, we've done very well on sourcing and design with material costs, so I think we would see that as a tailwind for next year. So we're still working on all the other items in the plan. And when we get to January, we'll definitely do a more complete review of sales and the profit drivers.
Andrew M. Casey - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
Okay. Thanks, Mike. And if I could follow up on the guidance for this year, the $3.25, I think in the past, a $3.55 included some benefit from change in pension OPEB policies. Is that still in the $3.25 and how should we view that in 2017?
Michael Lynn DeWalt - Caterpillar, Inc.:
Yeah, essentially, the change that we made had the impact of taking out prior-year amortization of gains and losses related to the assets and liabilities in the pension plan and better reflects what the, I don't know, I guess I would call, actual ongoing pension costs. So it's not that there's a big benefit. I think it's just stated more around what the actual expenses for the year. And we made that accounting change effective the beginning of this year, a couple of prior years where we stated. And we're going to maintain that, certainly that accounting treatment.
Andrew M. Casey - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
Okay. Thank you very much.
Michael Lynn DeWalt - Caterpillar, Inc.:
Thanks, Andy.
Operator:
Thank you. And the next question is coming from Sameer Rathod. Sameer, your line is live. Please announce your affiliation and pose your question.
Sameer Rathod - Macquarie Capital (USA), Inc.:
Hi. Good morning, Macquarie. My question's on excess capacity. It seems like rationalization, normal rationalization, isn't really happening, given the excessive liquidity provided by central banks. Does Cat think deflationary pressures or pricing pressure will continue in this environment or does it somehow naturally abate or do you think M&A is the only channel for supply rationalization?
Michael Lynn DeWalt - Caterpillar, Inc.:
Sameer, I heard all the words you said. Is it a question on our pricing or what we tend to fix? (34:00)
Sameer Rathod - Macquarie Capital (USA), Inc.:
Caterpillar has indicated excess capacity being a problem for price realization. My point is if there's excess liquidity, zombie corporations, so to speak, not going out of business, does price realization continue to deteriorate?
Michael Lynn DeWalt - Caterpillar, Inc.:
Okay. I get it. Okay. So our pricing over the last couple of quarters, it's certainly unfavorable to a year ago, but it's stabilized from what we see going forward over the next quarter anyway. In fact, we had a Q&A in the release on this. We don't see the pricing environment actually getting worse. Saying it's not getting worse doesn't mean that it's good. Kind of maintaining it at this level is actually a pretty significant negative to our results. It was a $200 million drag on the quarter. But we don't, at this point, see it getting worse from here. It's pretty tough overall, but barring some large event in the world economy, that we're certainly not expecting, I think we would see, from this point, at not very attractive levels, stable pricing.
Sameer Rathod - Macquarie Capital (USA), Inc.:
Okay. Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. And the next question is coming from Jamie Cook. Jamie, you line is live. Please announce your affiliation and pose your question.
Jamie L. Cook - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker):
Hi. Good morning, Credit Suisse. I guess my first question, I appreciate the color on the fourth quarter revenues as well as the EPS and why the EPS is lighter, but can you just give me a little more color? Have you changed your assumptions in terms of where dealer inventory should be at the end of the year and Cat's inventories relative to your previous guide? Because I think what everyone is trying to get a better understanding of is as we approach 2017, what's your confidence level that we should start to produce in line with retail demand, given where we are today?
Michael Lynn DeWalt - Caterpillar, Inc.:
Yeah.
Jamie L. Cook - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker):
So I guess that's my first question. And then also, you mentioned a couple times about your 2017 revenue assumption, the first half is weaker versus the second half. Back to how we will be producing relative to in-line with retail demand, is the second-half improvement you're assuming the markets get better? Or is there some change in what would be normal seasonality in terms of production for Caterpillar? Thank you.
Michael Lynn DeWalt - Caterpillar, Inc.:
Yes. Predicting dealer inventory precisely is always difficult, but I think, based on where we've been year-to-date, and what's likely, I think, in the fourth quarter, and this will be a plus or minus probably a couple hundred million dollars, but probably something around dealer inventory in its totality around $1.5 billion decline this year, with probably somewhere close to half of that coming out in the fourth quarter of this year. So we are not currently producing to end-market demand; this year, order of magnitude, $1.5 billion lower. Now, when you start talking about next year, I'll tell you what makes it really difficult to predict. How we'll end the year will depend a lot on how the second half of the year turns out and what expectations for 2018 are. So, for example, if things start improving in the middle of next year and there's confidence that 2018 is going to be a better year, part of dealer inventory is thinking about what's going to be needed for the future, not what was needed in the past. So that would tend to help dealer inventory. If 2018 looks bad, if there is some sort of a world event and dealers are more pessimistic, there'd likely be some additional dealer inventory reduction. I think we'll be probably be in a better position to talk about that maybe more in January, but I would say in our current estimates, we do continue to have some level of dealer inventory reduction in for next year. I guess, at this point, let's just call it a placeholder, but probably not as much as this year.
Jamie L. Cook - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker):
So in a flat environment, we'll still be under-producing retail demand next year?
Michael Lynn DeWalt - Caterpillar, Inc.:
I would say so, yeah.
Jamie L. Cook - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker):
Okay. And is there any way you'll give color? I mean, know it's not the $1.5 billion. Would it be considerably less than that? And can you talk about which markets they would be targeting? And I guess the second question on that is why not just get it all out of the way, Mike, this year versus have this be an issue into 2017?
Michael Lynn DeWalt - Caterpillar, Inc.:
Well, we don't control dealer inventory. Dealers are independent. What they decide, it's not up to us. It's up to dealers on what their confidence level is. They're the ones selling to end customers, so it's not something that we can force to be behind us. And it's also very seasonal. Dealers will want to likely build some inventory in the first quarter for the second quarter selling season, so it's not as simple as you might think.
Jamie L. Cook - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker):
Okay. And then buckets on where it is, is it just mining and construction, construction?
Michael Lynn DeWalt - Caterpillar, Inc.:
Well, it's been mining, construction and some E&T this year. It's been across all three. I think construction for the year will probably be a bit more than the other two. (40:08).
Jamie L. Cook - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker):
Okay. Thanks. I'll get back in queue.
Operator:
Thank you. And the next question is coming from Ross Gilardi. Ross, your line is live. Please announce your affiliation and pose your question.
Ross P. Gilardi - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Yeah, good morning, Bank of America. Thank you. Mike, I've tried this one for a few years in a row. I'm going to try it again same time of year. Cat, I believe, has got $3.6 billion in goodwill still residing in its mining segment. And as you mentioned in your formal remarks, as we know, new equipment sales are down 80% to 90% since you bought Bucyrus. Your annual impairment testing, I think, is coming in the fourth quarter. I'm not asking if you're going to write it off, because, obviously, that's an auditor decision, but if you did write off the $3.6 billion in goodwill, would it potentially jeopardize either the dividend due to stipulations on shareholders' equity in your borrowing agreements or negatively impact your credit rating?
Michael Lynn DeWalt - Caterpillar, Inc.:
Well, those are big questions, so I'll try to talk around it rather than giving you a direct answer, because our credit rating is up to the rating agencies. But first off, if we knew what the result of the fourth quarter goodwill testing would be, we'd book it. We don't. We go through a defined process every year. We're going through that now. And we're pretty straight up. If there's an impairment, we'll book it. If there's not, we won't. In terms of the effect on the company, that would entirely be a non-cash item. It would affect equity, of course, but it's a totally non-cash transaction. I can't imagine that would impact the dividend.
Ross P. Gilardi - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
But in terms of not having it written off up until now, I mean, how could Cat say that the assumptions around what it's worth on a discounted cash flow haven't changed materially since the time you bought it and put that goodwill on your balance sheet to begin with?
Michael Lynn DeWalt - Caterpillar, Inc.:
Well, that's a longer discussion. First, there is no Bucyrus. Bucyrus does not exist. And the goodwill is not in one measurement bucket. We measure goodwill. We do the work based on which of our business it's in and that goodwill is spread across more than one business. And also remember that some of the intangibles in goodwill changed after we acquired Bucyrus and sold a portion of it to dealers. So some of it left already. In our K last year, we provided more color on goodwill. And the segment that's the closest a year ago to triggering an impairment, I think if memory serves me, it was about 15% off. That segment houses about $1.2 billion of the goodwill. So we don't have a Bucyrus. Everybody wants to think we do, but it's been integrated in across a couple of different businesses within the company. And so the measurement is not just Bucyrus, because it doesn't exist. It's each of those businesses that we have. That's how it's done. So I don't know if we'll have an impairment or not. I'm not saying we will. I'm not saying we won't. We just have to go through the process and we'll know in the fourth quarter. If we do, we'll book it. If we don't, we won't.
Ross P. Gilardi - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
All right. Thanks, Mike.
Operator:
Thank you. And the next question is coming from David Raso. David, your line is live. Please announce your affiliation and pose your question.
David Raso - Evercore Group LLC:
Evercore ISI. Good morning. I was just trying to think about the cadence and confidence in the 2017 outlook. When I look at the orders, right, the orders are down about 10% year-over-year, and they have to grow about 5% sequentially just so the fourth quarter orders are still down just 10%. Can you give us some color what you're seeing currently on your order trends and how to think about those numbers with that cadence for 2017 sales? Because, again, we need orders up 5% sequentially to still be down 10% year-over-year starting next year.
Michael Lynn DeWalt - Caterpillar, Inc.:
Yeah, David, I think I'd have to write all this down on a piece of paper to follow what you're saying, but our backlog from second to third quarter didn't change much. I think in Construction, the backlog is in most of the products, outside of maybe China, is fairly weak. I think we don't normally have a long backlog for businesses like Construction. That product ships in the range of 8 weeks to 15 weeks. So you don't have a long backlog. I said a minute ago, dealers are planning to cut inventory in the fourth quarter. So I think naturally, they're ordering less. We would certainly expect a pickup in orders in the first quarter as they want to build some inventory for the second quarter selling season. In the case of Solar, backlog is reasonable, and based on everything we know about history, should be reasonably in line with a flat year next year. So how confident are we in next year's sort of preliminary view? I think we're confident that the first half will definitely be challenged. And I guess if you want to read into that down, I think that's probably a reasonable way to think of it. How confident are we that the back half of the year will improve? I think that will depend largely on what happens to the U.S. economy, U.S. construction, and whether or not this trend of maybe parts sales firming in construction happens, and whether or not we start to see orders from mining companies, which we haven't seen much of so far. We're encouraged by the commodity prices, the sentiment, the discussion on CapEx, but probably to the point that you're making, that has not turned into orders of any magnitude yet. So our confidence in the year does rely on a pickup in orders going forward, hope that helps.
David Raso - Evercore Group LLC:
I mean, to be healthy, you'd need (47:12) a lot of mining orders to turn that into a big positive year-over-year. So I mean, six months, nine months out is far enough out, I appreciate.
Michael Lynn DeWalt - Caterpillar, Inc.:
Yeah.
David Raso - Evercore Group LLC:
It could go up in the second half nicely, but I'm just trying to think what we have visibility on in that kind of three, six month kind of view, that the orders sequentially, and, again, I'm just giving you the numbers, if orders are flat sequentially, we're still down 14% year-over-year going into 2017. And I'm just trying to get a feel from you, are you saying your orders sequentially right now feel flattish, up or down, just for some perspective?
Michael Lynn DeWalt - Caterpillar, Inc.:
No. Yeah, I don't recall disclosing orders. So I'd have to look at your math. We'd have to talk about it offline, as orders aren't something that we disclose. And when you look at orders, you definitely have to consider how much is aftermarket, how much is not aftermarket. The length of the order board for parts is about two days. The length of the order board for rail can be two years. So it just depends upon the product in terms of what it means for the short term.
David Raso - Evercore Group LLC:
And one last follow up, the R&D, you didn't mention on the year-over-year puts and takes, I would've thought the R&D, which is already running down 14% for the third quarter – it was down 11% the second quarter – would be an area of cost savings for next year. Is there a reason you didn't highlight it?
Michael Lynn DeWalt - Caterpillar, Inc.:
Yeah. And the reason I didn't highlight it is because we're not done with the plan for next year. And one of the things that we have to address between now and the time we do talk to you about profit is in places where we have discretion on timing of spending, what we're going to prioritize and what we're going to do. We're not through that yet in the planning process. That'll come over the next probably six weeks or so.
David Raso - Evercore Group LLC:
But it's fair to say it should be a positive? It should be down next year is a fair directional assumption?
Michael Lynn DeWalt - Caterpillar, Inc.:
I tell you what, I'm going to avoid saying that, because we've not been through that sort of resource allocation discussion yet within the company. I mean, I can understand how you would think that, and that may well be the case, but before I get us positioned on that, I think we need to get through our planning process.
David Raso - Evercore Group LLC:
I appreciate it. Okay. Thank you for the time.
Michael Lynn DeWalt - Caterpillar, Inc.:
Okay.
Operator:
Thank you. And the next question is coming from Robert Wertheimer. Robert, your line is live. Please announce your affiliation and pose your question.
Robert Wertheimer - Barclays Capital, Inc.:
Thank you. It's Barclays. Congratulations to Doug and Jim. Doug, we've written that the work that Cat has done under your tenure on competitive positioning, production systems, market share, it's going to pay off for years and decades to come. So congratulations.
Douglas R. Oberhelman - Caterpillar, Inc.:
Yeah, thank you, Rob. I appreciate that.
Robert Wertheimer - Barclays Capital, Inc.:
This is a little bit of a lower-level question, but SG&A was really low in the quarter, really good, great cost control. And obviously, the incentive comp was part of that, but even if we take incentive comp up like $100 million, like it seems to have been the first two quarters, you're still at $630 million, $640 million or something like, very, very low levels. What else was abnormal in SG&A? And what is the sort of indication on sustainable run rate from the quarter?
Michael Lynn DeWalt - Caterpillar, Inc.:
Yeah, I mean, the incentive comp was definitely an abnormal, if you will, in the quarter, a good guy. Outside of that, I'm not aware of anything in the quarter that was of any materiality, unusual or weird. I mean, there's always some discretion in some of the expense that you have, and there's always some timing issues. Like, I'm quite confident that SG&A costs might be a bit higher in the fourth quarter, because of timing. But there's nothing that I'm aware of that is anything that's significantly, outside of the incentive compensation, negative.
Robert Wertheimer - Barclays Capital, Inc.:
Perfect.
Michael Lynn DeWalt - Caterpillar, Inc.:
Yeah.
Robert Wertheimer - Barclays Capital, Inc.:
Would you hazard a guess on the total? I mean, I understand the work you're doing on product design, but the total raw material benefit for 2016 at this point?
Michael Lynn DeWalt - Caterpillar, Inc.:
2016, honestly, I don't remember the total number, but probably a good couple of hundred million dollars, maybe.
Robert Wertheimer - Barclays Capital, Inc.:
Great. Thank you.
Michael Lynn DeWalt - Caterpillar, Inc.:
Maybe a little bit more than that even.
Robert Wertheimer - Barclays Capital, Inc.:
I'm done. Thanks.
Operator:
Okay, the next question is coming from Joe O'Dea. Joe, your line is live. Please announce your affiliation and pose your question.
Joseph John O'Dea - Vertical Research Partners LLC:
Good morning. It's Vertical Research. First question, just on pricing and what's embedded in early expectations for 2017, I think when we compare it to the pricing announcement from late September, which had a pretty wide range, but flat to up 4%, and then based on experience this quarter, just how you're thinking about pricing from an overall perspective in 2017?
Michael Lynn DeWalt - Caterpillar, Inc.:
Yes. That's a good question, Joe, and when asked for the puts and takes for next year, I was silent on price realization. So on the positive side, we did put list prices up for machines in the range up some, none, some as much as 4%. We don't provide any kind of a weighting on that. So it's a little tough for you to know what an overall average is for that. And then even that, that's just machines. So that wouldn't have aftermarket in it, and that's not Energy & Transportation either. But I think the fact that we had a 0% to plus 4% range, you can look at and think of that as a bias for a little better price. The flipside of that is price realization. This year, we did not take list prices down, but we have negative price realization. So the market will be what the market will be, regardless of what we put out in list price changes. I think at this point, I didn't talk about it as a headwind or a tailwind. And I think that probably describes, at this point anyway, how we're thinking about it.
Joseph John O'Dea - Vertical Research Partners LLC:
Got it. And then, specifically on construction inventory in the dealer channel, could you give any context around historically how many months of inventory dealers have wanted to carry there and what they're carrying now, and maybe where you see that going? With the point of the question really being how big an impact Lean manufacturing has been for you, what kind of a comfort level it gives for dealers. And so there's destock related to end market, but then there's also destock on efficiency, and just how much more of that we could see?
Michael Lynn DeWalt - Caterpillar, Inc.:
Yeah, and I wish we were able to break down all the reasons and causes for everything that goes on within dealer inventory. There's usually a reasonable band in terms of months of supply and you kind of have to look at it in a band. It's not a static kind of expect – it depends a lot on is the bias up or is the bias down on future sales, because that'll color a lot what dealers hold. How we're, to your point, how we're shipping? Are we meeting shipping commitments? Are they relatively quick? Can they get what they want when they need it? And so that kind of puts a downward bias on what they want to hold as well. The flipside of that is if we're on allocation, they want to order as much as they can get and they want to hold as much as they can keep. So there's not a hard and fast rule, but somewhere in the sort of maybe 3 months on the low-end, 3.5 is probably a reasonable band. And for the most part, we're in that band. And you have to even take that with a bit of a grain of salt because it depends upon kind of what the product mix is of what's being sold. So if it were all small machines that we sell, that we can provide delivery on in eight weeks, that provides a little different dealer dynamic benefits. Big machines would take six months. But I guess the gist of my answer would be I don't think there's any massive excess of dealer inventory. I think we all would like to get dealer inventory down. It's just more efficient for us and dealers if we can deliver quickly what they want, what they need. And in an ultimate world, wouldn't it be great if they didn't have to have any inventory? And we could just ship them everything in one day. Unfortunately, that's not the case, but you're always striving to do better.
Joseph John O'Dea - Vertical Research Partners LLC:
That's really helpful. Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. And the next question is coming from Mili Pothiwala. Mili, your line is live. Please announce your affiliation and pose your question.
Mili Pothiwala - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
Thanks. It's Morgan Stanley. My question is on the comments you made on North American construction, particularly some of the weakness you mentioned you saw over the past quarter, call it, that's caused you to be a little more concerned on the outlook in 4Q and into next year. Can you just elaborate on kind of where you're seeing that and what caused you to get a little bit more concerned?
Michael Lynn DeWalt - Caterpillar, Inc.:
Yeah, so if you think about our business in construction, the heavy construction and rental are pretty decent-sized businesses for us. If you look at construction in North America, housing seems to be motoring on and has been okay. The problem we find ourselves in, I think, is the larger projects, the infrastructure, the infrastructure spending is maybe not quite as robust as housing would be right now, and that's a bigger sweet spot for us. We have this other dynamic going on and I'll try to describe it like this. We have too much used equipment in the marketplace right now, and used equipment prices are fairly depressed. And so what that causes in rental, particularly with our rental channels through Cat dealers, is it does not provide much of an incentive for dealers to sell off their used equipment and refresh fleets. So we're seeing our sales into the rental channel as pretty challenged right now. And I talked about construction equipment in Resource Industries, in particular, articulated trucks. We had quite a bit more rental loading earlier in the year than we've seen here in the back half of the year. So, I think, hopefully, sentiment will improve. We'll get the election out of the way. We'll have a new government that's interested in infrastructure spending. And somewhere six months to a year down the road, maybe that'll turn into something better but right now, I think we're on the fence and concerned about overall construction in North America.
Mili Pothiwala - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
Got it. And then just as a quick follow-up, I think in the past, you've talked about for 4Q within Resource Industries, kind of a breakeven outcome as being a possibility. Is that still how we should think about 4Q today?
Michael Lynn DeWalt - Caterpillar, Inc.:
For Resource Industries? I'm sorry. You cut out for just a second there.
Mili Pothiwala - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
Yes, for Resource.
Michael Lynn DeWalt - Caterpillar, Inc.:
Yeah, I'm going to avoid getting into the segment guidance. I think that if you look at what they did in the third quarter, it was very, very good on sales that were over, I think, $465 million lower. Their operating profit only changed, I think, $24 million or $25 million quarter-over-quarter. So they had a pretty darn good third quarter. If you look at our overall outlook for next quarter, we have lower profit on slightly higher sales. We have a cost absorption headwind in the fourth quarter, and I'm sure that'll hit RI. And we have usually a little higher seasonal costs, and so I'm sure that'll hit RI. So I would not be looking for RI to do better on profit in the fourth quarter.
Mili Pothiwala - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
Okay, got it. Thanks.
Michael Lynn DeWalt - Caterpillar, Inc.:
Thanks, Mili. Okay, we have time for one more question, and then we'll wrap up.
Operator:
Okay. The final question is coming from Ann Duignan. Ann, your line is live. Please announce your affiliation and pose your question.
Ann P. Duignan - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Hi, JPMorgan. And, Doug, I just wanted to say we have always appreciated how visible and accessible you've been, regardless of our weighting on the stock. So we appreciate that, and we hope Jim will continue this practice.
Douglas R. Oberhelman - Caterpillar, Inc.:
Thank you, Ann. I appreciate that also.
Ann P. Duignan - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Yeah. And my question is around steel prices, raw material prices. We're looking at significant increase in some of the steel costs year-to-date. Mike, can you talk about how that might weigh on your outlook going into 2017? I mean, it's a positive for maybe the mining side, but should we expect a headwind on the gross margin side?
Michael Lynn DeWalt - Caterpillar, Inc.:
So I don't think it would be much. I mean, if you go back over, not so much this year, but a couple of years before it, we had higher material cost reduction. Part of that was sourcing and design, and part of that was commodities. The commodity piece of it has mostly evaporated this year. The cost reduction that we're getting is mostly sourcing and design. That will continue. But I think higher commodity prices will mean not so much a headwind on material cost in total, because we'll still have considerable sourcing and design changes. We're always out there doing that, but I think it'll be certainly less of a – at this point in time anyway, I'd say it'd be less of a tailwind as we look into next year. But now all that said, we would take higher commodity prices in a heartbeat. I mean, if we had to decide between high commodity prices or low commodity prices, the impact on our sales would beat the impact on our material cost substantially.
Ann P. Duignan - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Yeah, I can appreciate that. And then a quick follow-up, because I know we're out of time, the variable cost reductions, $584 million year-to-date, is the way to think about modeling those variable cost reductions is that they come back into the system with revenue, because they are, i.e., variable?
Michael Lynn DeWalt - Caterpillar, Inc.:
Well, there are a couple pieces of that. One is material cost reduction is a pretty good-sized chunk of it. And you'll just have to make your assumption about what you think it'll do, material costs will do, going forward. The other piece of it is our inventory reduction this year has been a little bit less than it was the prior year; our inventory, not dealer inventory. So the cost absorption headwind hasn't been – it's still been a headwind, but it's not been as much of a headwind as it was the year before.
Ann P. Duignan - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Is there any way to quantify that?
Michael Lynn DeWalt - Caterpillar, Inc.:
Well, I mean, between the two of them, it's been positive $600 million this year. And so, I mean, you can use that as your starting point for the year, and then just use your own judgment. Do you think we're going to get more material cost next year? Or as you started out the question, do you think that commodities might be too big of a headwind for us? I think what we've done this year is probably a reasonable starting point.
Ann P. Duignan - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Okay. So variable cost reduction, no head count in that?
Michael Lynn DeWalt - Caterpillar, Inc.:
There is also period and variable improvement there. But we've had some of that going both directions. When volume goes down, that's usually a little dicey for efficiency. We've done a lot of work to help offset that impact. And then, recently in Belgium, efficiency has been less favorable than it was before, certainly. So the bulk of the variable cost reduction we've got this year has been the cost absorption in material.
Ann P. Duignan - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Okay. I appreciate that and, again, good luck, Doug.
Douglas R. Oberhelman - Caterpillar, Inc.:
Thank you.
Michael Lynn DeWalt - Caterpillar, Inc.:
All right, thanks. With that, we'll wrap up today's call. Thank you and we'll talk to you again in January.
Operator:
Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. This does conclude today's conference call. You may disconnect your phone lines at this time, and have a wonderful day. Thank you for your participation.
Executives:
Michael Lynn DeWalt - Vice President-Finance Services Division Douglas R. Oberhelman - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer Bradley M. Halverson - Chief Financial Officer & Group President
Analysts:
Ross P. Gilardi - Bank of America Merrill Lynch Seth Weber - RBC Capital Markets LLC Adam William Uhlman - Cleveland Research Co. LLC David Raso - Evercore ISI Jamie L. Cook - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker) Jerry Revich - Goldman Sachs & Co. Robert Wertheimer - Barclays Capital, Inc. Timothy W. Thein - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc. (Broker) Steven Michael Fisher - UBS Securities LLC Stephen Edward Volkmann - Jefferies LLC Joe J. O'Dea - Vertical Research Partners LLC
Operator:
Good morning ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Caterpillar 2Q 2016 Results Conference Call. At this time, all participants have been placed on a listen-only mode and we'll open the floor for your questions and comments for after the presentation. It is now my pleasure to turn the floor over to your host, Mike DeWalt. Sir, the floor is yours.
Michael Lynn DeWalt - Vice President-Finance Services Division:
Thank you very much and good morning, everyone, and welcome to our second quarter earnings call. I'm Mike DeWalt, Caterpillar's Vice President of Finance Services, and as usual on the call with me this morning we have our Chairman and CEO, Doug Oberhelman, and our group President and CFO, Brad Halverson. Today I'll start by walking you through a short slide deck similar to what we've done over the past couple of quarters and then we'll move on to the Q&A after that. So if you don't have the slide deck in front of you right now, it's available on our website, caterpillar.com in the Investor section and it's where the webcast link was. This call is copyrighted by Caterpillar Incorporated and any use, recording or transmission of any portion of the call without the express written consent of Caterpillar is strictly prohibited. If you'd like a copy of today's call transcript, we will be posting it in the Investor section of our caterpillar.com website and it'll be in the section labeled Results Webcast. If you go to page two of this morning's slide deck, you'll see our forward-looking statements. This morning, we'll be discussing forward-looking information that involves risks, uncertainties and assumptions that could cause our actual results to differ materially from the forward-looking information. In addition to page two of the slide deck, a discussion of some of those factors that either individually or in the aggregate could make actual results differ materially can also be found in cautionary statements under Item 1A of our Form 10-K filed with the SEC and the forward-looking statements language in today's financial release. In addition, a reconciliation of non-GAAP measures used in both the financial release and this presentation can be also be found in the financial release on our website and is also the back page of today's slide deck. So with that, let's get started on the slide deck and I would ask you to flip over to page four. It's the comparison of second quarter 2016 with the second quarter of 2015. It has the key lines for the second quarter versus last year. Sales and revenues down about $2 billion. About half of that was Energy & Transportation and the other half was split close to evenly between Resource Industries and Construction Industries and I'll talk a little bit more about sales than a minute. And profit, the primary drivers of the decline in profit from $1.31 to $0.93 a share this quarter, and excluding restructuring, $1.09, down from $1.40, so a $0.31 decline. By far the biggest negative in the quarter was the decline in sales volume and that included negative sales mix as more of the decline was in higher-margin products like oil and gas. Price realization was also a pretty substantial negative in the quarter and that was off $233 million. Now, on the favorable side, below operating profit, other income and expense was a positive $156 million and that was mostly all due to the absence of below operating profit exchange losses from a year ago. An important point I think to note about this second quarter was exchange had actually little impact on the quarter itself. And then the bottom, the most substantial positive in the quarter from a profit standpoint was cost reduction. Period and variable costs were favorable $670 million versus a year ago. And that just brings up the point here that we've been really focused on execution. That includes the cost reduction but is not exclusively cost reduction. We've improved our market position as well around the world and in particular in China as well. So let's switch onto the next page, page five. It's a discussion of the sales and revenues. Again, the biggest sales decline in the quarter was in Energy & Transportation, just shy of $1 billion. We've been talking about this for the last, oh, year or so. The decline really started about midyear last year. So this second quarter is kind of the last I think of the big declines that we're going to see particularly related to oil. First to first, second to second, by the time we got to the third quarter and certainly by the time we got to the fourth quarter of last year, it was pretty much all baked in. In fact, I think by the time we get to the fourth quarter of this year, the comps will be a lot more like the prior year. So this should be the last quarter of declines, at least in this size. Resource Industries, down about $600 million and most of that decline was lower end user demand and a little bit from pricing. Mining has just continued to be a very challenged industry. Customers are pushing out replacement purchases. They're delaying as much repair as they can and we see that in our sales. Now, relative to the trend, it's about flat with where we were in the first quarter so no continuing deterioration from where we were last quarter, but down from a year ago. And then finally, Construction Industries down just under $400 million. A little more than half of the decline was price realization and it is a pretty tough pricing environment out there today in construction and we see it everywhere. We see it in the U.S. We see it outside the U.S. Now, a word about this, because I know it may seem to you like it's accelerating but it's kind of not. It started going up about midyear last year, the sales variance, the discounting. And so we had negatives in the second half of last year. The first half of this year is comparing with a better period a year ago so it looks like it's quite a bit of an increase but it's not much of an increase actually from where we've been over the last two or three quarters. And I think as we go on and talk about this in the outlook, we see it starting to flatten out. Sales were down in North America, Latin America. Europe, Africa, Middle East was pretty flat year-over-year. Europe up, Africa, Middle East down, and sales in Asia were actually up year-over-year despite price pressure. So that's a quick run through of sales. I know related to Energy & Transportation, there's a lot of concern around the turbine business because it's been pretty strong for quite some time. Just a couple of facts about that. We reported on the backlog last quarter, said it was up slightly from year-end. Second quarter of this year is about spot on where we were at the end of the quarter so we're not seeing any deterioration there. It's a little early to talk about 2017 but all indications are the year is progressing pretty well. Oil is lower, work, backlog, sales around natural gas and natural gas pipelines are still pretty strong. Okay, so that's sales. Let's flip over to page six and talk a little bit about the operating profit change and cost in particular. This is the waterfall chart that we have actually in the release. No big, new information on here outside of the release. It just highlights how well we've done on cost reduction. So in total between variable and period, or you might call it relatively fixed cost, we're down about $670 million. And that's gone a long way to offset the impact of lower volume and product mix. And you can see on here, price realization, the negative $233 million. And actually, we've had more variable cost reduction if you think material costs and efficiency and that type of thing. We've about offset the impact on price realization with that. So year-to-date, if we turn to the next page, just talk a little bit about what we've done on costs. So on the first quarter between period costs and variable costs, we were down just under $0.5 billion. This quarter again was $670 million. So through the first half of the year, we've taken over $1.1 billion of cost out. If you look up at the top of this page in the yellow bubble up there, what we're saying is we're on track. Our expectations are that we'll end this year with well over $2 billion of cost reduction. That's coming really in three sort of general buckets. The most significant is restructuring and that is everything from combining office functions and reducing people to taking out manufacturing floor space and related costs. Material costs have also been favorable and we've had a good track record on material costs over the past few years. We're down over $1 billion over the last few years and it really comes from mostly design and sourcing-related cost reduction and then important, but to a lesser degree, commodity-related cost reduction. And then everything else. It's everything from a bit lower short-term incentive pay based on lower results and then cost reductions throughout the company, everyplace we can find it, from everything from travel and entertainment expense to consulting spend. So wherever we can take money out, we're working really hard to do that. So, bottom line, we're investing in the things we need to for the future, things like digital and really important product programs. Everything else, we're really trying to put a lid on and cut where we can, and the results have actually been pretty good. Let's flip over to the next page. That would be page eight. Talk a little bit about the outlook for the year. When we were sitting here a quarter ago, we were expecting sales in a range of $40 billion to $42 billion, so $41 billion as a midpoint. We've taken that down, from midpoint to midpoint, about $0.75 billion. And the gist of that is just everything that we're seeing in the economy today around the world. Additional risk; everything from the results of the Brexit vote and the short-term uncertainty that that causes, the trouble we've seen in Turkey, all the negative rhetoric around the U.S. elections. Oil prices have come off a little over the last couple of months. It's not any one thing, I would say. And we said this in the outlook. You know, we have sluggish economic growth throughout the world in general, but not enough to drive growth in our end markets. And the news we've seen over the last few months is definitely not giving us more confidence. So the outlook for profit is $2.75 a share and that's all-in, excluding restructuring costs, which are going to be about $700 million now this year. Net of that, we're at about $3.55 a share. Both on the top line and the bottom line, our estimate is actually pretty close to the last consensus analyst estimates that we've seen. So we're pretty close to we think where the market is. Now, one point about this outlook, and this is in Q&A 11 in our release on page 15, it has been negatively affected about $0.08 a share by taxes. So if we hadn't made the change in how we're looking at taxes on our profit excluding restructuring costs, the outlook would've been $0.08 higher, which isn't too bad a performance considering a $750 million decline in the top line. And I think it just goes back to the main theme of execution, cost reduction, doing everything we possibly can to keep the company strong and give us the ability to invest in the future. One last point I'll make about sales, and this might well be on your minds as well, and that's status of dealer inventory. We're pretty flat right now in dealer inventory with year-end last year but we think it's going to come down quite a bit over the next two quarters, and that's not entirely unusual. Last year we had a reduction as well. Full-year reduction in dealer inventory this year is probably going to be not quite but close to double what we did last year. And it's not so much – and you've asked this question before
Operator:
Thank you. Your first question is coming from Ross Gilardi. Ross, your line is live. Please announce your affiliation and post your question.
Ross P. Gilardi - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Yeah, hi. Bank of America. Thank you. Mike, some of your competitors sound maybe a little bit more sanguine on stabilization in the mining markets, at least in the aftermarket. And there just seems to be some scattered new project activity around the world. Can you elaborate a little bit more on what you're seeing? Is there any chance you're losing any share right now?
Michael Lynn DeWalt - Vice President-Finance Services Division:
Yeah. I would say there's some improvement in mining on the horizon around aftermarket. We are seeing a little more activity on dealer rebuilds and we would hope that that would translate into higher sales for us. I think one of the things that might distinguish us a little bit from competitors is that we sell through dealers. So a lot of these projects might hit them quicker than they hit us. We're still expecting a decline in dealer inventory this year and particularly in the second half of the year. So if we were just selling to end user demand, sales would be a bit better than they are right now. So yeah, I don't want to sound totally negative. It doesn't look to us like it's continuing to go down and there are a few small signs like that, particularly like the rebuild activity that's a little positive. But we track share of what's being sold and we're not seeing deterioration there. So it'd be nice if it would improve a lot quicker and hopefully somewhere down the road, it will.
Ross P. Gilardi - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Thank you. And can you just comment on the impact of lower interest rates on your pension and provide any preliminary thoughts on cash outflows into the pension next year to the extent you can?
Michael Lynn DeWalt - Vice President-Finance Services Division:
Yeah. I'll try not to get too far in front of myself, but I think, based on where we sit now, we don't see the requirement for substantial increases in contributions next year. The number I think is less than $0.5 billion, if memory serves me.
Ross P. Gilardi - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. And the next question is coming from Seth Weber. Seth, your line is live. Please announce your affiliation and pose your question.
Seth Weber - RBC Capital Markets LLC:
Hey, good morning. It's RBC. Mike, you mentioned a couple times in the release, there were comments about the U.S. construction equipment supply demand imbalance. Can you comment on where you think we are in the process of that smoothing out? Does equipment continue to need to be moved out of the energy markets? Where are we from an absorption perspective? Thank you.
Michael Lynn DeWalt - Vice President-Finance Services Division:
Yeah, so as we sit now, the thing that's been pretty good is sales that go directly to end users rather than through a rental fleet. So the weakness right now is, mostly what we've seen is in and around our dealers loading rental fleets. And I think that's where this sort of hangover of equipment that was being used for oil and gas, a lot of it resides right now. They're pretty stocked up on rental fleets. Used prices are down a bit, so that's not encouraging them to sell used equipment out of a rental fleet and replace it with new. I think that's, right now, the reason that we're not seeing a more positive construction number in the U.S. You know, you would hope – time heals all things and you would hope here sometime over the next couple of quarters that we'd be through that.
Seth Weber - RBC Capital Markets LLC:
That's helpful. Thank you. And if I could just ask a follow-up on the Chinese construction equipment market. The numbers there have been probably – I think you talked a little bit more positively there last quarter. Any updated thoughts on what you're seeing in that market?
Michael Lynn DeWalt - Vice President-Finance Services Division:
Yeah. Thankfully it's not another down year there. It's sort of flattish there for the full year, up for the industry. We're doing a little better than the industry. That's continuing a trend that's been going on now for a couple of years. We've got great product, great dealer distribution there. I think customers are coming around to the quality business model. So again, hopefully next year can build on this. We'll have to wait and see. But at least for this year, we're looking for, from an industry standpoint, a flattish industry.
Seth Weber - RBC Capital Markets LLC:
Okay. Thanks very much, guys.
Operator:
Thank you. And the next question is coming from Adam Uhlman. Adam, your line is live. Please announce your affiliation and pose your question.
Adam William Uhlman - Cleveland Research Co. LLC:
Hi. Good morning. It's Cleveland Research. I guess, back to the second half outlook for the year, I'm a little surprised that the profits aren't going to be up more than the forecast sales increase. So I guess, Mike, you touched on some of the factors that are behind that. Could you talk to what you're seeing in material costs? And how do you expect that to play out as we go into 2017 with steel prices moving higher?
Michael Lynn DeWalt - Vice President-Finance Services Division:
Yeah. That's actually a great question and I'm remiss for not having mentioned that when I talked about the second half. So we've had good cost reduction during the first half of the year for material. And our view is we'll continue to have cost reduction in the second half of the year versus 2015. But commodity prices have come up a little, so we're probably going to have less than the first half of the year. So in other words, full year, even second half versus the second half of last year positive, but the positiveness has probably peaked and it'll probably go down a little bit in the second half of the year. So that is one of the reasons, I think, that second half profitability, that plus the inventory declines plus the absence of the $0.04 we got on the securities sale in the second quarter all make it look like it doesn't hang together first half, second half with sales.
Adam William Uhlman - Cleveland Research Co. LLC:
Okay. Got you. And related to the mining business, I was wondering if you could just talk about high level, how you folks see the industry changing, if at all, related to the Komatsu and Joy Global merger?
Douglas R. Oberhelman - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
I'll take that one. It's Doug Oberhelman here. I don't think it was any surprise that Joy was acquired with what's happened to them and the mining industry in general and all the mining customers, particularly coal customers, that are out there around the world. Obviously, we've known Komatsu for decades. We've known Joy intimately as well the last decade or so since they emerged from bankruptcy and we entered mining in a bigger way. So neither one of these are new players. Certainly it's a consolidation that makes sense in the mining world. It's going to be smaller for at least a period of time. And, again, we know them, they know us, and I think going forward, we'll continue the competition just as we have in the past and I expect us to continue winning where we win.
Adam William Uhlman - Cleveland Research Co. LLC:
Great. Thanks, Doug.
Operator:
Thank you. And the next question is coming from David Raso. David, your line is live. Please announce your affiliation and pose your question.
David Raso - Evercore ISI:
Evercore ISI. Just trying to think about the carryover cost savings of 2016 to 2017. And then second question about the orders continue to fall sequentially, and I can appreciate some of the seasonality in rail for second half versus first half, but just thinking about the exit rate exiting 2016 to 2017. Can you help us a bit where you see orders playing out from here? Have orders stabilized? Because obviously they continue to fall sequentially.
Michael Lynn DeWalt - Vice President-Finance Services Division:
Yeah, I think no doubt about that and it's particularly in construction. Part of that, as you mentioned, is seasonal. And I think part of that again is related to dealers taking inventory down during the second half of this year. Again, partly seasonal. I think partly delivery performance. We're doing a much better job of delivering on time, stably to customers. So I think both of those things are contributing to lower orders. If you look at end user demand, I'm talking construction here, for the second half of the year, our sales to users, that's going to be pretty steady in the second half of the year. So it's not as though we're seeing a deterioration in demand from end users. It's more dealers have lowered orders to take out some more inventory.
David Raso - Evercore ISI:
So if you exit the year with an order run rate annualized below 2016, you're saying don't necessarily imply down revenues in 2017. You just feel your shipping capabilities are allowing a lower order rate, so to speak.
Michael Lynn DeWalt - Vice President-Finance Services Division:
Yes. Yes. Yes.
David Raso - Evercore ISI:
Like a quicker turn of the backlog and the revenues?
Michael Lynn DeWalt - Vice President-Finance Services Division:
Yeah, I think that is exactly what we're saying.
Douglas R. Oberhelman - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Yeah, I think that's a fair assumption. The retail sales numbers are the one to watch and really drive this whole supply chain. And as long as they're steady, the chain will work itself out. And as Mike said, second half will look different than the first, but that's the one that really drives us. Of course, that gets back to market share and a lot of other things as well, David.
David Raso - Evercore ISI:
Well, do you expect to see the retail sales get flat by the end of the year so we feel more comfortable about that assumption for 2017?
Douglas R. Oberhelman - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
I don't know if they'll be flat flat, but they should be closer than they are right now, yeah.
David Raso - Evercore ISI:
And then the carryover cost, the slide number seven, when you say on track for over $2 billion. I'm not sure if that's an annualized number but assuming it's a $2 billion run rate exiting the year, looking how the quarters play out, or really first quarter, second quarter, second half, are you implying a carryover cost savings of $1 billion?
Michael Lynn DeWalt - Vice President-Finance Services Division:
So that's 2016 versus 2015 costs. And we start – a lot of that started coming out very early in 2016. Our first quarter was quite favorable. Our second quarter was even more favorable. So I think we will probably end the year with, as you look forward based on the timing of the cost reduction, a tailwind, but I don't think it would be $1 billion.
David Raso - Evercore ISI:
Okay. That's helpful. I appreciate it. Thank you
Operator:
Thank you. And the next question is coming from Jamie Cook. Jamie, please announce your affiliation and pose your question.
Jamie L. Cook - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker):
Hi. Good morning. Credit Suisse. Couple clarifications. One, Mike, in the press release and I think in your commentary you implied Solar was flat with the first quarter, up from the beginning of the year, but you also talked about some customers pushing out orders into 2017. So I'm just wondering, is the backlog flat because of push-outs, or are you actually seeing order activity? And then my second question is for Doug. Doug, you've talked historically about managing to a targeted $3.50 trough-ish EPS. As we sit here today, given the markets don't seem to be getting better, we're already at the $3.55 this year. Is that off the table? Or do you think there are incremental levers that you could pull to manage profitability as we think out over the next 12 months?
Michael Lynn DeWalt - Vice President-Finance Services Division:
I'll start with that on the Solar piece and then I'll turn it over to Doug. On Solar, what we see customers pushing out a little bit is the timing of some maintenance and that doesn't have usually as long a backlog as the new product. So probably impacts this year's sales a little quicker than it does backlog just by the nature of it. I think the reason that we made a comment on Solar backlog is because everybody's concerned about it and we're just trying to reassure everyone that what they're selling, they're replacing with new orders. That's not fallen off a cliff or off the table, and the gas business just keeps on chunking along. So I'll turn it over to Doug.
Douglas R. Oberhelman - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Yeah. Thanks. In terms of your trough earnings question, I think your questions are reasonable one to assume. As you say, without all the restructuring costs, we're at $3.55 and, as Mike said, you take $0.08 back, we're a little bit above that even but certainly around $40 billion, where we are now. That's a reasonable assumption to go after and that's where we're going to fight to try and find a bottom if that's what we're fighting in the future.
Bradley M. Halverson - Chief Financial Officer & Group President:
This is Brad Halverson. I might just add a quick point, Doug. The trough earnings number has been stated between $2.50 and $3.50. I'd say if you look at how – and I would say the sales decline modeled in those scenarios would not have been as severe as what we've experienced in the four-year trend. Going from above $60 billion down to $40 billion, we've been absolutely trying to stay ahead of the process to be prepared if things did not get better. If we were not staying ahead, quite frankly, there was no way we could have done $2 billion of cost reduction this year to offset some of the price pressures and the drop in volume. And we really like our midcycle numbers. Everybody wants to know when we're going to start recovering in that trend towards midcycle. But we still need to be prepared for what could happen in the short term on the downside. And so we've talked about a 25% to 30% decrementals. I would say we're still committed to that. I would also say that we're being extremely directive in the things that we fund, things like digital which will be up significantly this year over last year. Things like funding the businesses that we believe have the highest opportunity to improve the value of the company and our operating profit after capital charge, which we call OPACC, in the medium term. So we want to fund those industries which we think are attractive for us and where we play well. And things that are not as attractive are the places that we look first to cut. So we're still in that process and we're still preparing to stay ahead of the game and I would say that, if required, we would be ready.
Douglas R. Oberhelman - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Yeah, that's right, Brad, and I would just come back to the incremental/decrement pull-throughs on the way up and the way down that have served us pretty well going back to 2009 on the way up from $30 billion to $66 billion, and then on the way down from $66 billion to $40.25 billion this year. We've managed to stay inside of those targets all the way up and down. And I think that's probably one of the single biggest differences we've been able to accomplish from prior deep slowdowns in the 40% range top line is we've got everybody targeting those and that's where we go after with our cost reductions. And, as Brad said, our capital allocations then in those businesses we really want to stay in and thrive in long term.
Jamie L. Cook - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker):
Okay. Thank you. I'll get back in queue.
Operator:
Thank you. And the next question is coming from Jerry Revich. Jerry, please announce your affiliation and pose your question.
Jerry Revich - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Good morning, everyone. It's Goldman Sachs. Mike, you spoke about roughly $2 billion or so in implied dealer inventory reductions, which I think is mostly in the back half of this year. Could you just give us a flavor for the mix between Construction and Resources and any regional color that you can give us where you expect inventories to come down? And as we enter 2017, do you think we're at normalized dealer inventory levels for the current demand environment?
Michael Lynn DeWalt - Vice President-Finance Services Division:
So, couple of things. One, $2 billion is a little too high a number. It's probably more like year-over-year $1.5 billion and it's probably split two-thirds Construction, one-third Resource, and that's sort of ballpark. And in terms of adequate levels, I tried to address this point. I think adequate levels is a little bit of a moving target around delivery performance. So again, if we were able to cut delivery performance in half from where it's at now, dealers would feel comfortable holding less inventory. If our delivery – let's say things ticked up, orders ticked up, the markets heated up, and let's say we had trouble keeping up, that would concern dealers and they would order even more. They would want to hold even more. But just the opposite is happening right now. We have excellent delivery performance. They can get pretty much what they need when their customers need it. And so that's causing them to hold, or want to hold less. And the more – the better we do with lean, the more that'll probably be the case. So I'm trying to stress the point I don't think dealer inventories are excessive. I mean, there's a reasonable range but I think they will come down over the second half of the year.
Jerry Revich - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Okay. And you was talking about the major restructuring changes as we think about the eventual recovery. Can you update us on how you're thinking about incremental margins and recovery given the change in the manufacturing footprint?
Michael Lynn DeWalt - Vice President-Finance Services Division:
Well, it should be – and Doug has talked about this quite a bit – on the way up. We previously had a 25% incremental target but I think, while we've not quantified it, certainly our expectation is that the first chunk of what goes up would certainly be at a higher rate than that.
Jerry Revich - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. And the next question is coming from Robert Wertheimer. Robert, please announce your affiliation and pose your question.
Robert Wertheimer - Barclays Capital, Inc.:
It's Barclays Bank. Thank you. Construction margins are really quite impressive given negative pricing and given volumes that are troughing in LatAm and maybe low cycle elsewhere. Can you see steep falls from here or do you think that's bottoming? And I'm curious if you have any view or are willing to share any view rather on structural margin upside, if you actually get a healthy market given what you're doing at low cycle.
Michael Lynn DeWalt - Vice President-Finance Services Division:
Yeah, that's a good question. I think our Construction business is a great example of how our managing for maximum OPACC, operating profit less a capital charge, can work. They've been on this path to maximize OPACC for last few years, which is fundamentally around figuring out where you make the most money and where you don't, fixing where you don't and reinvesting in where you do to increase sales. So, that's oversimplification of it. But that's worked. They've also taken out – they're very cost-conscious. They've taken out costs. But relative to where we think a trough, a midcycle, a peak would be, they're not as bad off as, say, oil or rail or mining. But I think there's plenty of upside for them. North America is still well below the peak. Brazil is – wow – so far down you can hardly see it. So, I think there's plenty of scope for improvement and based on the work that these guys have done to figure out where to invest to drive OPACC, I think there's still plenty of upside left for them.
Robert Wertheimer - Barclays Capital, Inc.:
Do you see signs of stabilization in North American Construction? As you said, we're well below the prior peak and some of the fleet's older. Do you think there's material downside chances there? Or are you seeing stable?
Douglas R. Oberhelman - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
I don't see material downside at the moment, frankly. We've seen so many states step up with bond issues. We've seen many states step up with tax increases for infrastructure spending. Anecdotally, a lot of our customers are busy across the country. A 2% growth rate of the 1.5% to 2% does not spur a lot of investment but there's enough going on to tell me that we're not facing a cliff here unless there's some outside event of some kind that occurs. So I don't see it collapsing or, as you said, a big falloff. I would sure like to see the growth increase based on increased economic negative activity.
Robert Wertheimer - Barclays Capital, Inc.:
Thanks, Doug and Mike.
Bradley M. Halverson - Chief Financial Officer & Group President:
This is Brad. I'll just make one other comment. And we're not going to give you an incremental number this year to plot in. We've talked about it being fairly high. One thing I would say for reference is that the vast majority of costs we've taken out we would not add back. An so, as we've restructured, as we've changed things, if you think that there are costs that we're ready to add back that we've taken out, I would say outside of some very minor amounts, most of those costs we're not going to add back. So as we add period cost in an upturn relative to our incrementals, it would be focused really around our OPACC improvement agendas, those places we want to invest more because we think there's a significant amount of value. And so that'll probably drive that incremental discussion when we get to that point.
Robert Wertheimer - Barclays Capital, Inc.:
Thanks, Brad.
Operator:
Thank you. The next question is coming from Timothy Thein. Timothy, your line is live. Please announce your affiliation and pose your question.
Timothy W. Thein - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc. (Broker):
Thank you. Citigroup. So the first is on the energy part of E&T and I guess specifically in well servicing where I'd think you would see a recovery first in a more stable oil price environment. So the question just revolves around where the service companies that you and your dealers speak to, where they sit from a sentiment standpoint on CapEx. There's been some comments of some restocking of consumables. But just curious what you're seeing out there.
Michael Lynn DeWalt - Vice President-Finance Services Division:
Yeah, I think probably the best way to say that is where oil prices are today is probably not enough to drive a lot of incremental investment there. I think the thing you'll see first is the idle fleets being put back to work, particularly around drilling, before we see some investment. So oil prices this morning, I guess, were in the $42-plus range. We're probably still a ways away from that.
Timothy W. Thein - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc. (Broker):
Okay. Got it. And maybe a second one on Cat Financial. I don't know if Brad's still around. But the question relates to the penetration rate in the quarter. I think new retail financing has now eclipsed 30%. It hasn't been there, I don't think, post the financial crisis. So I'm wondering is that a shift in the underlying business mix that's driving that, or is that perhaps more of a strategy shift for Cat? Or maybe you could just speak to that. Thank you.
Michael Lynn DeWalt - Vice President-Finance Services Division:
Yeah. This is Mike. So Cat Financial is always trying to increase their share. Just like every other part of our business, they're trying to increase their market share, if you will, the percentage of deals that they do versus their competitors. And they've actually done a very good job over the last couple of years in increasing that, and I think that's what you're seeing. The limit on that is you certainly don't want to do shaky deals. You don't want to sacrifice credit quality to do it, but you want to work very closely with the dealers, with the customers, and capture as much market share as you can.
Bradley M. Halverson - Chief Financial Officer & Group President:
Yeah, and this is Brad. I'll add onto that. We're very proud of the people at Cat Financial and how they run that business very independently in partnership with our product groups, but very independently. And so you'll see our allowance being very well maintained at around 1.25%. Our past dues, similar trend at 2.93%, fairly close to previous quarter and below historical average. And we have grown our share there. But one thing I want to comment on, which we had a few questions come in on, there is pressure in the used equipment market. It's probably down 2% or 3% from the last quarter. It's probably down 5% to 10% if you look from a year ago. We carry a little over $600 million of used equipment, both from repossessions and residuals. Still pretty well behaved. We had a gain last year and we had a very small loss this quarter, and so we don't see any big issues in that regard. But I would tell you that that is an area that does have some pressure and that we're watching, but it's, at this point, very well maintained.
Timothy W. Thein - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc. (Broker):
Thanks a lot.
Operator:
Thank you. And the next question is coming from Steven Fisher. Steven, your line is live. Please announce your affiliation and pose your question.
Steven Michael Fisher - UBS Securities LLC:
Thanks. Good morning. It's UBS. Just a question on the restructuring. How anticipatory would you say is the incremental $150 million in the quarter versus just reflecting what current conditions warrant? In other words, you talked in your question eight in the back about too early to really say what impact Brexit would have, but would this incremental restructuring be intended to mitigate a potential slowdown from the UK Brexit and a potential slowing in U.S. non-res construction activity? Or would you might want to do more restructuring if those things play out?
Michael Lynn DeWalt - Vice President-Finance Services Division:
So that's a good question. I wouldn't relate it specifically to any one of those. I think you have to look at it in the aggregate. And Brad made actually a really important point a couple of minutes ago and that's that we are trying to get – we don't have a crystal ball. We don't know what's going to happen in the marketplace. But we want to be positioned to deal with it if it does happen. So I would say that over the course of the past quarter, we're a little more negative on the world economy and the Brexit, the Turkey, the elections, oil price, you name it, all of that contributes. And we're less bullish on second half sales because of that. And whatever impact that would have in the future, we're trying to get ahead of that with additional cost reduction. So I would say it's us trying to get ahead of the potential, not what we actually know, and not specifically related to any one of those items.
Steven Michael Fisher - UBS Securities LLC:
Okay. That's helpful, Mike. And then in terms of mining profitability, the $163 million loss was a step down in the quarter compared to Q1. How are you thinking about where that goes from here? How contained can your restructuring actions keep those losses going forward?
Michael Lynn DeWalt - Vice President-Finance Services Division:
Yeah. Hopefully, this is the worst quarter we'll see. I think embedded within our outlook we see it getting a little bit better. Second quarter pricewise was deteriorated a little bit from the first quarter. And when you get to numbers as we're talking a change quarter to quarter of a couple hundred million, not for pricing but in total for them. Costs were a little higher because of some inventory adjustments. Just normal surplus and excess inventory. And then we had a little negative inventory absorption for RI. They took out inventory in the second quarter. That hurt a little bit. They are certainly a part of the extra cost reduction that we're going after in the second half of the year. When I talked a little bit about first half/second half, we think their sales are going to be up a little bit in the second half of the year. So I think the combination of extra cost reduction and a few more sales hopefully will make the second quarter the worst of the year.
Steven Michael Fisher - UBS Securities LLC:
Great. Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. And the next question is coming from Stephen Volkmann. Please note your affiliation and pose your question.
Stephen Edward Volkmann - Jefferies LLC:
Hey. Good morning. It's Jefferies. Hey, Doug, I'm going to take you up on this since you mentioned infrastructure trends getting a little bit better. How big of an opportunity is that for Cat? How much of revenue might that be? Or how should we think about sizing that going forward?
Douglas R. Oberhelman - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
It's hard to tell, actually. The highway bill, the Federal Transportation Act that was passed last year in itself did not increase overall funding an awful lot in this country. It held it at inflation plus a little bit, but it did give it five years. I think as most states have recovered from their fiscal problems the last few years, they're starting to recognize the needs for infrastructure and we're seeing that. If there's any impact – and I've said this all year long – from that transportation act of last year, it's going to be a 2017 event. We might feel it. I don't think it would move the needle a great deal, but we would certainly feel it. And it's hard to quantify until states start lining up for their matching funds. So there's quite a big effort underway to get that done as well. We'll just have to see it play out. It's certainly going to be a positive, but I would doubt we'd see it move the needle in a big way in 2017 but we'd feel it.
Stephen Edward Volkmann - Jefferies LLC:
Great. That's helpful. And then Mike, maybe just a couple quick modeling questions. How do we think about taxes going forward with the various changes you've had? And then, what's a normal level of short-term incentive compensation if we're thinking into the out years?
Michael Lynn DeWalt - Vice President-Finance Services Division:
Two good questions, Steve. First on taxes, all-in, we're looking at a 25% tax rate this year but that is a little lower because of all the restructuring, which has tended to be in a little higher tax jurisdictions. So the restructuring is attracting somewhere around I think low 30%s, 34% I think. So excluding restructuring, it'll vary a little bit by quarter depending upon how much restructuring there is, but probably around 27% excluding restructuring. And then, what's normal on incentive pay, I'm going to qualify it a little bit here. It depends on how many employees we have because it scales, if you look at it in terms of dollars. But based on the number of employees we have right now, if we were to pay everyone at a 1.0 payout, which we would consider to be normal in a normal year, you're looking at something in the order of magnitude of, let's say, rough number $850 million.
Stephen Edward Volkmann - Jefferies LLC:
Super. That's great. Thanks.
Michael Lynn DeWalt - Vice President-Finance Services Division:
Okay.
Operator:
Thank you. And the next question is coming from Joe O'Dea. Joe, your line is live. Please announce your affiliation and pose your question.
Joe J. O'Dea - Vertical Research Partners LLC:
Good morning. It's Vertical Research. First question, just on the rail side. It sounded like from a geographic standpoint that the softness that you would've seen year-over-year was more international. But could you just give a little bit of commentary on what the North America trends are like for you? Incremental softness, with North America rail flat year-over-year, just how stable you think that is when you start to think about more downside risk, upside risk, and how stable those North America trends are.
Michael Lynn DeWalt - Vice President-Finance Services Division:
Joe, I feel little bad here. I tried to prep a little on rail but I didn't do it by region. So can't talk too much about North America specific. Sorry I'm just not further up to speed. But what I would say is we're looking for a better rail sales in the back half of this year. Remember, we've just introduced our new locomotive at midyear and while sales aren't huge for that right now given the state of the overall industry, we certainly are going to sell some. So that's part of the increase in the back half of the year.
Joe J. O'Dea - Vertical Research Partners LLC:
Okay. And then on Resources, it seemed like in the first quarter one of the challenges was aftermarket came in a little lighter than we would've expected to start off the year, with the expectation that moving deeper into 2016, that would improve. From a margin standpoint, it didn't look like there was a mix benefit in the second quarter. Could you just talk about sequential trends, what you're hearing from dealers to scheduled rebuilds? It sounds like that's a little bit better. Did you see some improvement in aftermarket from first quarter to second quarter?
Michael Lynn DeWalt - Vice President-Finance Services Division:
Well, we're hearing that dealers are booking a little bit more. In fact, I verified that with our mining group last night. They are seeing – dealers are seeing an uptick of bookings around rebuild. It hasn't really hit our parts business quite yet but hopefully it will. And your synopsis of no big upturn in part sales around mining is actually correct. At least so far.
Joe J. O'Dea - Vertical Research Partners LLC:
Okay, great. Thanks so much.
Michael Lynn DeWalt - Vice President-Finance Services Division:
All righty. Well, I think we're at the top of the hour here, actually a minute or so over, so we'll conclude the call. Thank you very much.
Operator:
Thank you ladies and gentlemen. This does conclude today's conference call. You may disconnect your phone lines at this time and have a wonderful day. Thank you for your participation.
Executives:
Michael Lynn DeWalt - Vice President-Finance Services Division Douglas R. Oberhelman - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer Bradley M. Halverson - Chief Financial Officer & Group President
Analysts:
Stephen Edward Volkmann - Jefferies LLC Andrew M. Casey - Wells Fargo Securities LLC Joe J. O'Dea - Vertical Research Partners LLC David Raso - Evercore ISI Ann P. Duignan - JPMorgan Securities LLC Robert Wertheimer - Barclays Capital, Inc. Ross P. Gilardi - Bank of America Merrill Lynch Jerry Revich - Goldman Sachs & Co. Jamie L. Cook - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker) Eli Lustgarten - Longbow Research LLC
Operator:
Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Caterpillar First Quarter 2016 Results Conference Call. At this time, all participants have been placed on a listen-only mode, and we will open the floor for your questions and comments after the presentation. It is now my pleasure to turn the floor over to your host, Mike DeWalt, the Director of Investor Relations. Sir, the floor is yours.
Michael Lynn DeWalt - Vice President-Finance Services Division:
Thank you, and thank you very much for everyone on the line, and welcome to our first quarter earnings call. I'm Mike DeWalt, Caterpillar's Vice President of Financial Services. And on the call with me this morning, we have Doug Oberhelman, our Chairman and CEO, and Brad Halverson, our Group President and CFO. We're going to do today's call similar to what we've done the past couple of quarters. We'll be going through a short slide deck before we get to the Q&A. And if you don't have that slide deck in front of you, it's available on our caterpillar.com website with the conference call webcast link. Remember this call is copyrighted by Caterpillar Inc., any use, recording or transmission of any portion of the call without the expressed written consent of Caterpillar is strictly prohibited. If you like a copy of today's call transcript, we'll be posting it in the Investor section of our caterpillar.com website and that'll be in the section labeled Results Webcast. So if you go to page two of this morning's slide deck, you'll see our forward-looking statements. And certainly, this morning we'll be discussing forward-looking information and that involves risks, uncertainties and assumptions that could cause our actual results to differ materially from the forward-looking information. In addition to page two of the slide deck, a discussion of some of the factors that individually or in the aggregate could make actual results differ materially from our projections can be found under Item 1A Risk Factors in our Form 10-K filed with the SEC and in the forward-looking statements in today's financial release. In addition, a reconciliation of non-GAAP measures used in both the financial release and this presentation can be found in our financial release and, again, that's been posted on the caterpillar.com website. Okay. With that, let's flip to page three of the presentation which is the agenda. I'm going to walk through the first quarter and the 2016 outlook. Then Doug will go over a page of key points. And then Brad and Doug and I will move to Q&A and answer your questions. So with that let's move to page four and this is a pretty high level summary of sales and profit for the quarter. And in the little box at the top right-hand corner of the page, I think is an important point. First quarter's quite a bit lower than the second quarter a year ago, and I'll cover that here in a second. But it was essentially right in line with what we were expecting for the first quarter in terms of sales and profit and profit excluding restructuring costs. So this page then primarily covers this year versus first quarter of last year, and sales were down $3.2 billion. $1.6 billion of that was Energy & Transportation, $1 billion Construction, $0.5 billion Resource Industries, and I'll cover those in a little more detail on the next page. Sales volume was the primary driver of the $1.57 decline in profit per share, or a decline of $1.40 excluding restructuring costs. Price realization contributed another $234 million, and I'll cover price realization a little bit more in the context of the outlook. Other income and expense was unfavorable; that's below operating profit, $194 million. Two things really in there. In the first quarter of last year, we had $120 million gain, and that was from the sale of our – the last part of our interest in our third-party logistics business, and then the difference between currency translation and hedging was negative, the primary reason for the rest of the $64 million. Restructuring costs were unfavorable, $126 million in the month. That comes after our announcement last September where we accelerated actions. And then in addition to that, in the first quarter, we recorded a large chunk of restructuring costs for our ending production of our vocational on-highway truck, and that was not considered in the outlook before. And then on the bright side today, we have $474 million, almost $500 million of lower costs in the quarter. That's period costs and variable costs. And certainly for the period costs piece, a decent chunk of that was from the restructuring actions that we've been implementing over the last few years. So let's move on to page five. This is a little more explanation on sales change. It was a pretty good magnitude, $3.2 billion, so we thought it would be a good idea to kind of go through the elements. Energy & Transportation had the most significant decline, and that was $1.6 billion. Now oil and gas and transportation made up over 80% of that. With oil and gas – and we've been saying this for the past year – we had a sizable backlog for reciprocating engines for drilling and well servicing as we ended 2014 and started into 2015. And those turned into sales for us despite lower oil prices during the first half of 2015. So we always knew the comparables between first and first and second to second were going be tough. That was a big piece of it. We also had a high level of locomotive sales in the first quarter of last year, and that was certainly not the case in the first quarter of this year. So those two things were the bulk of the decline in Energy & Transportation. If we move on to Construction, the single biggest reason for the decline in sales is not demand, it's change in dealer inventory. So last year, we had a much more sizable increase in dealer inventory in the first quarter, and it's not uncommon to have an increase in the first quarter as dealers stock – choose to stock up a bit for the second quarter selling season; it's spring and summer, and that's a more activity. But the increase this year was smaller than the increase last year, and that was about half of that decline. About a third of Construction Industries decline was end-user demand, mostly North America and Latin America. The North American piece, we're actually seeing in terms of general construction and infrastructure, decent business in North America. Much of the decline in demand in North America is in the oil patch. So the first quarter of last year, that was still going fairly strong. And we think that's a decent piece of the reason Construction is lower. And as we go through the year, we ought to be lapping that because it declined as we went through last year. Latin America is down, Brazil for example and Mexico are quite a bit lower. Asia on the other hand demand was actually up in the quarter and that's a good thing. I'm sure Doug will talk about it in a little bit but China was better for us. And then EAME, principally in the Africa, Middle East part of it was down slightly. Price realization was negative $172 million. So of the $234 million for the company, $172 million of it was in Construction. And again when we get to the outlook, I'll talk a little more about that. In Resource Industries, we were down $0.5 billion. Most all of that was volume. Essentially no dealer inventory impact there. And price realization was relatively benign in terms of dollars, negative $38 million. So most of the Resource Industries is lower end-user demand. So that's a recap of the sales change. Let's move forward and talk about the outlook. We did trim the range for sales and revenues. We moved it from a range of $40 billion to $44 billion to a range of $40 billion to $42 billion. So the midpoint is down about $1 billion and that represents about 2%. Profit per share moved from $3.50 to $3.00. Restructuring costs actually are up a bit from $400 million to about $550 million. And the vocational on-highway truck, our ceasing of production there is most of that difference. And excluding the increase in restructuring costs, well, we're moving from $4.00 a share to $3.70 a share. There are puts and takes on costs, but the primary reason for the decline in the $4.00 to $3.70 is the $1 billion decline in sales at the mid-point. So that's the outlook for sales and profit. I thought I would take a minute and talk about the elements of the sales change. So first with Construction, really no change in our volume. I mean there are some, again, puts and takes here. China again is a bit better. We took the forecast up a little for that. Latin America, a little weaker than expected. Sentiment around Construction – and I think Doug will talk about this in a few minutes – is a bit better. That's good. We like that. But it's a bit too soon, I think, to start playing that into the outlook. So fundamentally, the outlook for volume in Construction Industries is pretty neutral. Resource Industries, demand looks like it's going to be down again, weaker than we had expected when we started the year, even though it's already pretty low. The recent improvement in commodity prices is a good thing. We're happy that that's positive for our customers, but it's certainly not enough, and it hasn't been around long enough to drive a sustained increase in demand for our product. Now that decline in Resource Industries is about a quarter of our decline in the outlook. So Energy & Transportation, this is where the outlook for the year came down the most. And essentially it's, for the most part, transportation related. The biggest piece of that is rail. Looks like it's going to be a tougher year for our customers in rail. They have a lot of locomotives idled and we think some of the orders on hand are going to get moved out to a later than this year. Marine is also weaker. A competitor of ours announced results yesterday and they talked about the same thing. Particularly around workboats that service offshore oil. We're also down a bit in Transportation because of the stopping of the on-highway vocational trucks. There was sales in the forecast for that when we started the year, and that's going to ramp down fairly quickly. And the last item, it affects sales and it affects profit, and that's price realization. When we started the year, we were thinking negative price of maybe about 0.5% and that's what was in our outlook. We've raised that to about 1%. And from a year-over-year standpoint, we think that that will be mostly in the first half of the year. We saw prices trending down in the second half of last year, so the comps are particularly more difficult in the first half than they'll be in the second half, and most of that decline is going to be in Resource Industries and Construction Industries. In terms of the timing of the outlook, as you know, there's always some seasonality in our business, and if you look at Caterpillar over the last 20 years, about 49% of our sales usually end up in the first half of the year and about 51% end up in the second half of the year. This year, that's going to be a little bit more skewed to the second half; we're thinking maybe 47.5% or so in the first half, 52% in the second half, and that represents about $600 million more in the second half of the year than kind of our historical average would lead you to expect. I just wanted to put that in for context, so you didn't think that there was some big hockey stick at the end of the year, there's not. A bigger second half is normal. Much of the reason for a little bit more skewing in the second half is rail. And we've talked about this for the last couple of years; we'll be introducing the Tier 4 locomotive in North America in the second half. And then in addition to that, our turbine business is a little bit more skewed to the second half. We've got a good backlog there. In fact, the backlog from first quarter to second quarter is about the same – or I'm sorry, from the end of the year to the end of the first quarter is about the same. So now, what that all means for the second quarter is that sales will be up about $0.5 billion or so from the first quarter to the second quarter, that's about $10 billion. And on that, we think profit will be just a shade less than $1 a share. So with that, I would like to turn the floor over to our Chairman, Doug Oberhelman.
Douglas R. Oberhelman - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Thank you, Mike, and hello, everyone. I'll just walk down through this slide, I hope you have it in front of you. On these seven points, I'd like to make with you and shed a little color, and then we'll go to Q&A as well. First of all, around China, I was over there about three weeks ago, as I usually do in March, to attend a state-sponsored forum of CEOs from Europe and United States. And there was a lot of sharing about government policy, where they're going with the five-year plan, where they're going with the 10-year plan for that matter as well, and a lot of discussion around the transition from an investment economy to a consumer economy, and I think that's part of what we're all feeling. They also announced about the same time, or a little bit before that actually, a little bit of a stimulus, which was minor. And frankly, we're feeling that. This is the first post-Chinese New Year in probably three that we have seen a continued industry uplift for the industries that we serve around construction. It's not a hockey stick. It's not a boom. It's not a 2010. But it is the first time we've seen that happen, and we have lifted our schedules as a result of that this year. We talked about that in the release. We'll see how long that goes. This is around infrastructure, primarily high-speed rail, and a lot of it is development in the West where it's really needed, where there's a lot of very backwards places. So they recognize that and they're working on that, trying to balance, I think, the infrastructure needs with what I described, plus continued investment in airports and so on, with the consumerism they're trying to drive. And that's the balance that I think they're trying to pull off. We'll see how it goes. So far so good. In the U.S., any – just about any market that's away from oil is doing pretty good. Southeastern U.S., Southwest U.S., we're feeling the benefit now more of housing. In fact, construction and paving segments were up about 7%, and that's positive. When you get around the oil pads, there's an oversupply of everything and that's kind of shadowing the numbers. I think once that balances out, we'll be back to – or be able to show a fairly anemic, but stable growth. And we're looking – I just heard about the South Carolina infrastructure plan the other day. It's a $4 billion program they're trying to pass. There's a lot of states lining up to get those kind of things done. And then, of course, the federal – the FAST Act comes in on top of that right now. And as I've said before, I think the last call, we're looking at that more into 2017, but certainly, that's giving states confidence and we're seeing more and more of that around the country. So that's building. Again, I'm not here to project a hockey stick by any means, but it's – appears to be sustainable and good news for us. Energy is, as Mike said, and everybody knows, is really flat. We haven't seen any kind of a uptick in our numbers with oil at $43 or whatever it is that these rates. It's probably going to have to go well before we do see that, so we're getting through that. Going on to the second point, operational performance continues to be very satisfying here. I know that some of these metrics aren't ones you all watch every day, but I do. Certainly, the safety have improved again in terms of recordable injury frequency rate. And I use that to judge how management teams are operating in our factories, in our offices and wherever they're running, as well as employee engagement involvement, and those numbers continue to drop. They've dropped 90%-plus in the last 15 years and are down significantly again already in the first three months of 2016. Our quality metrics continue to be good. We just had some reaffirmation of that in Germany at our big bauma show there, in talking with customers and our big dealer Zeppelin, so I'm happy with that. Variable margin continues pretty well even with the absence of our big, obviously, mining and oil business that we – that are high-margin contributors in the past. So, all in all, operationally, our Lean efforts, our value chain is working. Our material cost reductions through our purchasing group is working very well and continues on the path that we have been. A little bit on – more on restructuring. We actually bumped that up a bit in the first quarter, as Mike described, for the truck. Our global work force is down about 8,600 people. We've announced the closure or consolidation of about 15 facilities, were on plan. About $0.5 billion in cost-out, as Mike mentioned. About $375 million of that or so is period costs which is – you would expect to see, and we will make our goals, I'm very confident, this year in what we projected. It's been a tough road. Needless to say when we take those kinds of deep actions and we've got several more coming for the rest of the year on plan, that would be included in what we announced in September, but it's working. Our strong balance sheet is another important area for us and we're – we've been very focused on that for a long time. You'll recall we ended 2009 with a highly leveraged balance sheet. We did buy back some shares. We reduced our debt-to-cap ratio. Today, we're sitting on about $6 billion in cash. And, in fact, the debt-to-cap improved again by almost a couple of points in the first quarter. So our balance sheet's just strong. Our priorities – the dividend, as I've said before, and will continue to say, and that balance sheet strength is one of the reasons we're able to do that and get through this turbulent period. Just a quick comment on Cat Financial. Nothing really obvious to report there, continue to be very tightly controlled and managed. 80% of our customer base there have a balance less than $100,000, so it's a very diverse portfolio. Our past dues bumped up a bit in the first quarter. Not to be – to be expected in the first quarter, kind of a seasonal thing, but less than last year. So I think all the external and internal metrics we look at point to that business continuing on the path it's been, which is a real strength for us. And then finally, a couple of things on the future. We have maintained R&D. And that's one that has been paying off well for us. We did not cut R&D to the bone as we might have in earlier cycles, in 2009, and that's paying off for us now in terms of the product that's out there. We invested about $2 billion the last three years. Those products will come to market in the next two years to five years. And I can tell you what I've seen, it will be outstanding additions to our fleet and really be nice payoff. So to the extent we can, we're going to hold R&D and cut everywhere else. Our Lean efforts are working. Three years over $1 billion of cost reduction through our variable cost, on how we're going about that. Inventory improvements down about $6 billion since 2012 as well. We've seen a big culture change across our factories and some of that's demonstrated by safety of course. Then lastly, I'd focus on digital. And I know some of you were at Bauma in Germany and we showed – we just started to scratch the surface of that by introducing The Age of Smart Iron. We intend to be the leader here in terms of asset management, product health, productivity, safety, sustainability and predictive analytics, which is coming. It will be a cornerstone of our CONEXPO display next March in Las Vegas. Today, we've got 400,000 connected assets and growing. By this summer, every one of our machines will come off the line being able to be connected and provide some kind of feedback in operational productivity to the owner, to the dealer and to us, where improvements down the road the idea being to get to a point where we can show the customer on his iPhone everything going on with his machine, his fleet, its health, its run rate, its productivity and so on. And we're – we'll be very close to that. We've got over 100 customers on an experimental basis with that right now. Several dealers participating, and a lot of pull from the marketplace for this, which is quite exciting. So I think, Mike, I'll stop there and we can move into Q&A, and we can embellish on any of that as we need to as we go forward. Thank you.
Michael Lynn DeWalt - Vice President-Finance Services Division:
Okay. We're ready for Q&A.
Operator:
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, the floor is now open for questions. And the first question is coming from Stephen Volkmann. Stephen, your line is live, please announce your affiliation and pose your question.
Stephen Edward Volkmann - Jefferies LLC:
Great. Good morning, guys. That's Jefferies, and thanks for taking the question. Maybe, Mike, I might take you back to your comments on pricing, if you would. It does seem like things have deteriorated kind of sequentially over the last three quarters, and I guess I'm just trying to figure out, it feels like some of this at least probably isn't in your control, and yet you feel – it feels like you have fairly good confidence that things get better in the second half. And I'm just curious if there's any more color you can give us. I don't know, maybe it's product related, maybe it's geography, or how to think about that?
Michael Lynn DeWalt - Vice President-Finance Services Division:
Yeah, it's a little of both, actually. I think one of the big issues going on right now is that we have a stronger dollar. Now, there's much of the world, Europe, for example, Japan, where we sell in local currency, so not as big an issue. We adjust for that. But in places like the U.S. and much of the Africa-Middle East where transaction prices are essentially in dollars, competitors of ours that are coming from a manufacturing base outside the U.S. are being more aggressive on pricing, and so that's putting pressure on us. So that's quite a bit. And then, of course, in mining, it's a deal-by-deal battle, and that business certainly hasn't seen any signs of improvement yet. So dollar is quite a bit of what I think.
Douglas R. Oberhelman - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Mike, let me just add there on this point. We have for several years really focused on market share. That drives this business. It drives this business model. It drives our dealers. And we've been very fortunate up until now, and I agree with Mike completely that the dollar is a big piece of that, in building market share every year for the last five years. And in fact, we've built market share again so far this year over last year. And that comes with a little bit of sacrifice on price, and that's the balance we're going to continue to drive. And we are – I'll just maybe leave it at that that it's a balance, and it's a kind of a market share gain for us because that drives this company long term.
Stephen Edward Volkmann - Jefferies LLC:
Great. I appreciate it. Mike, the tax rate going forward, any change?
Michael Lynn DeWalt - Vice President-Finance Services Division:
We did 25% in the first quarter, and that's essentially what our expectation is for the year.
Stephen Edward Volkmann - Jefferies LLC:
Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. And the next question is coming from Andrew Casey. Andrew, please announce your affiliation and pose your question.
Andrew M. Casey - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
Wells Fargo Securities, and good morning. On the guidance, the change in the pricing expectation seems to account for kind of most, if not all, of the guidance reduction. Did you change any of your assumptions related to the variable or period costs that you provided last quarter to offset the rest of the revenue decline?
Michael Lynn DeWalt - Vice President-Finance Services Division:
Yeah, Andy, so price realization is a couple hundred million of the billion. And certainly that goes right to the bottom line. There is additional cost reduction. And a lot of that would come from incentive comp. I mean, that's lower because the outlook is lower. There's a relationship between those. So those are a couple of offsets from the profit side. And then the rest of it is essentially lower sales volume and what the variable margin is on that.
Andrew M. Casey - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
Okay. Thanks, Mike. And then, I just want to ask a second question on the accounting principle change. The benefit that you got this year and then the recast for last year, is that – should we view that as a foundation for future years or can that kind of go the other way?
Michael Lynn DeWalt - Vice President-Finance Services Division:
Well, one of the – the reason the two years were different is because the amortization of prior-year losses for the most part were different. And those – that's out of the equation now, so I think the – that ongoing normal cost will be less influenced by that. So it will be I think relatively speaking no more stable, except for we're doing this mark-to-market now. So at year-end, there will likely be – who knows right now whether or not it will be a big positive or a negative, we don't know and it's not included in the outlook. There could be a mark-to-market change at the end of the year if interest rates go up or down or there's a material change in returns on the funded asset portfolio. You could get quite a bit of variability at year end on that mark-to-market adjustment. Outside of that, I think it's probably a good base to come from.
Andrew M. Casey - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
Okay. Thank you very much.
Operator:
Thank you. And the next question is coming from Joe O'Dea. Joe, your line is live. Please announce your affiliation and pose your question.
Joe J. O'Dea - Vertical Research Partners LLC:
Hi, good morning. It's Vertical Research. First question on the E&T margin in the quarter and then relative to the full-year outlook, it seems like that imbeds some improvement in E&T where you'd found sort of stability in the mid-teens level the previous couple of quarters. So, could you just talk about expectations there, visibility and timing into seeing that step-up or anything that was a bit of an overhang in the quarter?
Michael Lynn DeWalt - Vice President-Finance Services Division:
Yeah. I think the actual operating margins for E&T were down in the first quarter and that's because of relative to the rest of the year – relative to last year, a low sales quarter in the first quarter. So if you think about it, much of the increase in the quarterly sales between the first and the rest of the year is going to be E&T, Energy & Transportation. And that will get added at certainly a higher than operating margin rate. So it's a bit of operating leverage on the sales, they had a pretty low sales quarter. So I think that'll come back up as we go through the year.
Joe J. O'Dea - Vertical Research Partners LLC:
Okay. And then on Construction, looking at your revenue trends relative to what we get out of the retail sales statistics, it looks like some pretty significant destock over the past couple of quarters or at least a low rebuild in 1Q relative to normal. In general, how do you characterize inventory levels at your dealers, and I guess particularly in North America, if those have reached pretty thin levels relative to history?
Michael Lynn DeWalt - Vice President-Finance Services Division:
Yeah, so you're right. There is a – there is – if you look at the retail sales for Construction Industries and what we actually reported as sales, there's a disconnect. The – I don't have the number right in front of me, but I think our sales were down 18%, 19% and the retail sales were down less than 10%. The difference is not so much a destocking in the channel. It's – we normally build inventory in the first quarter. We did that in both quarters, but they built a lot more inventory. We built – or dealers, I'm sorry, built more inventory a year ago, so that's negative for our sales and that's what's taken that retail sales level and bumped it up a little bit for us in the first quarter.
Joe J. O'Dea - Vertical Research Partners LLC:
And...
Michael Lynn DeWalt - Vice President-Finance Services Division:
I think our – yeah, I would say there's always some seasonality in dealer inventory. It goes up during this part of the year. And then it – everything else being equal, with relatively level demand or expected seasonal demand, it will come down between here and the rest of the year, and that's exactly what we think will happen.
Bradley M. Halverson - Chief Financial Officer & Group President:
This is Brad. It's hard to look at all the factors, but I will tell you one factor that's influencing this, we believe, is the benefit of Lean. Our – hitting our promise dates to our dealers in terms of the products has improved over the last few years. I think there's a higher level of confidence that we'll deliver the product when they need it, and I think because of the benefits of Lean we're seeing a little bit lower inventory at the dealers.
Joe J. O'Dea - Vertical Research Partners LLC:
Got it. That's really helpful. Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. And the next question is coming from David Raso. David, your line is live. Please announce your affiliation and pose your question.
David Raso - Evercore ISI:
Hi, Evercore ISI. I was just trying to think through the inventory changes at the dealer level. Have you changed at all your view of the dealer inventory target for the year and if you can refresh us on what that is?
Michael Lynn DeWalt - Vice President-Finance Services Division:
We've not made any changes. I don't recall talking about a target. I think last year dealer inventory declined I think around $1 billion, if memory serves me.
David Raso - Evercore ISI:
That's right.
Michael Lynn DeWalt - Vice President-Finance Services Division:
And I would expect it probably to be somewhere close to that this year as well.
David Raso - Evercore ISI:
And regarding the backlog, how much of the backlog doesn't ship this year? I'm just trying to get a feel for where the backlog is relative to hitting the guide and just trying to understand maybe where – we obviously have our own thoughts about orders for the rest of the year.
Michael Lynn DeWalt - Vice President-Finance Services Division:
Sure.
David Raso - Evercore ISI:
So where would that leave the backlog toward the end of the year?
Michael Lynn DeWalt - Vice President-Finance Services Division:
Yeah. Honestly, I don't have the – I mean I have the backlog numbers in total which were flat from the end of the year to where we are now. But I don't have a breakdown of what ships later in the year. We'll put that – I think we normally put that in the queue, but I don't have it in front of me, David.
David Raso - Evercore ISI:
Then I guess maybe the same kind of question. On the backlog change, I think you had mentioned a backlog similar at Solar sequentially. Is that correct?
Michael Lynn DeWalt - Vice President-Finance Services Division:
We didn't say Solar in particular but we said each of the segments. But you could throw Solar in there as well. It was similar to – relatively unchanged from year end to the end of the first quarter; actually up just a touch but not much.
David Raso - Evercore ISI:
All right. That's helpful. I appreciate it. Thank you.
Michael Lynn DeWalt - Vice President-Finance Services Division:
Yep.
Operator:
Thank you. And the next question is coming from Ann Duignan. Ann, your line is live. Please announce your affiliation and pose your question.
Ann P. Duignan - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Hi. It's Ann Duignan, JPMorgan.
Douglas R. Oberhelman - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Hi, Ann.
Ann P. Duignan - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Can I ask a question on working capital and the balance sheet and cash flows? If I look at days on hand and days sales outstanding, both were up year-over-year and quarter-over-quarter. Quarter-over-quarter may be seasonal but – should we be concerned at all that inventories are not being caught quickly enough, Doug? And what is the outlook for free cash flow for the full year? I mean you used cash this quarter versus – normally in this type of an environment, we might have expected some inventory relief and working capital to be a positive.
Michael Lynn DeWalt - Vice President-Finance Services Division:
Yeah, Ann. This is Mike. I'll take that. We don't really make a forecast for cash flow. That's never really been a part of our outlook, but if you look at the operating cash flow for this quarter, it was a couple of hundred million positive, and that's despite two big negatives in the first quarter. As a part of our restructuring costs last year, we had a fair bit of employee related costs. And that was, for the most part, paid in January. So there was, I think, about $400 million of extra negative cash flow in the first quarter that was related to the restructuring actions from last year. So that was a bit of a drag. And then, of course, in the first quarter, we always pay – we accrue incentive compensation throughout the year, but it gets paid in the first quarter, and that was I think $600 million. So between the two, we had close to $1 billion drag on operating cash flow in the quarter. So I think you'll see that improve, operating cash flow ought to improve quite a bit from first quarter levels as we go through the rest of the year. I think on inventory, we've been pretty public by saying that the one operational thing that we've not been as happy with is inventory turns. There's all kinds of reasons why quarter to quarter to quarter, things can change, but on balance, our forecast has an improvement in turns built into this year. And we have everybody in the company working to make that happen.
Ann P. Duignan - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Okay. Thank you. And just as a quick follow-up, I noticed that the Financial Services took $1 billion loan from the parent or from Machinery. Can you talk about what's happening there and why that was necessary? Is that unusual? It didn't show up a year ago. I'm just curious what's going on.
Michael Lynn DeWalt - Vice President-Finance Services Division:
No, that's not unusual. I don't know if I would call it routine, but it's not all that unusual. Intercompany loans between the parent and all of our subsidiaries to kind of help better manage cash happens all the time.
Ann P. Duignan - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Okay. Thank you. I'll get back in line.
Operator:
Thank you. And the next question is coming from Robert Wertheimer. Robert, your line is live. Please announce your affiliation and pose your question.
Robert Wertheimer - Barclays Capital, Inc.:
It's Barclays, and good morning, everybody. The question is on the oil patch. Oil service companies are obviously feeling a lot of price pressure, whether it's pressure pumping or offshore rigs, and some of that price pressure – so the fleet in the field is idle, and so maybe it's easier to discount. So I've a specific question. Are you seeing pricing on aftermarket and are you feeling increasing pressure from people like that? And a general question, it sure feels like a lot of people are trying to target – bringing the whole cost curve down to $60 (39:54). I wonder if you feel like you're already there on costs, you never raised pricing as everyone else did or whether you really have a lot of work to do to get structural cost down to where everybody's trying to target it in the future.
Michael Lynn DeWalt - Vice President-Finance Services Division:
Yeah, that's a lot, Rob. First on parts pricing, that – if you look at our year-over-year price realization of the issues that we have, for the most part, that's new machines, that's not aftermarket. And I'm not saying it's zero, but in terms of materiality, it's not that big a deal. So that's the pricing point. In terms of the cost curve, a lot of the product that we have, particularly on the reciprocating engine side, is similar – let's take a 3500 Series engine. It goes into machines, electric power, it goes into marine. It goes into providing power for a drill rig or a frac pump. So it's actually spread across a number of industries. I mean we've worked on the cost structure, and I think actually not just for oil and gas, but across most of our products. I think at the sales level that we're at right now, based on the material cost reductions we've got the Lean-related efficiency improvements, the period cost reductions, the restructuring, I think we've actually done a pretty darn good job on trying to get the cost structure in line for the most part with where reasonable demand would be.
Robert Wertheimer - Barclays Capital, Inc.:
That's perfect. Mike, if I can ask just a very quick procedural one. You don't usually guide the quarter. You did, and I'm sorry if we made you – cost you a trip to London. And then you kind of – obviously, the dealer sales pointed to a slight reduction in the outlook. So that was no surprise. But procedurally, did you just not do it till all the quarterly numbers came in or was there something that sharply accelerated down the last few weeks?
Michael Lynn DeWalt - Vice President-Finance Services Division:
No. I mean, the numbers that – we don't normally provide actual guidance. We kind of nudge, I guess. We provide some color around what we think. And I think we probably didn't do that as explicitly enough when we did our year-end release. And the analyst guidance for the quarter ended up looking more like the pattern for last year rather than the pattern for this year from a quarterly cadence. And we were coming down from oil and gas last year. So I don't think that was well played into the guidance. So no, what we did at Barclays was just trying to get expectations set there, thereabouts where we'd thought all quarter, but was not a big step-down or a run-down, and we ended up actually being pretty close to what we thought. I mean we've got many businesses, not just three segments. Within each one of those, we – like E&T, we have marine, we have recip oil and gas, we've got turbines, we've got power, we've got rail, we've got rail services, and each one is difficult enough to forecast. But there's just a lot of moving parts. I know from the outside looking in, it might seem like our business ought to be easy to forecast, but it's actually pretty tough. But we've come reasonably close, and certainly, we were in the first quarter.
Robert Wertheimer - Barclays Capital, Inc.:
Perfect. Thanks.
Operator:
Thank you. And the next question is coming from Ross Gilardi. Ross, your line is live. Please announce your affiliation and pose your question.
Ross P. Gilardi - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Hi. Ross Gilardi from Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Good morning, everybody.
Douglas R. Oberhelman - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Good morning, Ross.
Ross P. Gilardi - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Mike, I was wondering, could you just help us bridge Q1 to sort of the implied step-up in Q2, more from an earnings perspective...
Michael Lynn DeWalt - Vice President-Finance Services Division:
Yeah.
Ross P. Gilardi - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
...so you're doing mid- to high-$60 million (44:11) in Q1? And based on your commentary for the revenue breakdown, I mean I assume you're somewhere in a dollar per share neighborhood or something to do the full year. And can you just help us break...
Michael Lynn DeWalt - Vice President-Finance Services Division:
Yeah.
Ross P. Gilardi - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
...that down into a few buckets? Are there any weird things going on with other income or anything like that that can make us more comfortable in that step-up that you would see and the need at the very least in Q2 to do the full year?
Michael Lynn DeWalt - Vice President-Finance Services Division:
Yeah. It's actually not that tough, Ross. So in the first quarter, I'll tell you one thing that we – I would say we don't forecast but I guess by definition we tend to forecast at zero is the impact, the short-term impacts of currency as a result of our balance sheet position. And that's below operating profit in that other income line. We tend not to forecast it. Our whole business is hard enough to forecast. Trying to forecast exchange rates over the next three months, we just don't do. So we would be expecting currency exchange in that other income and expense line to essentially be zero. In the first quarter, if memory serves me, we had about $0.05 a share I think negative. So that would be coming out. So that would be a little bit of a boost in the second quarter. And then we have higher sales in the $500 million to $600 million range. You probably want to use something closer to our variable margin rate. I mean, period costs over time like year-over-year, we can fluctuate them up or down. But in the short term, rather than kind of an incremental margin kind of look, variable margin is probably a little bit better indicator. And for us, that's right around 40%. So I think a little less drag from currency translation and higher sales and maybe a little bit more continued cost reduction. But mostly, it's sales and absence of exchange loss, and a little bit of product mix, too.
Ross P. Gilardi - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Got it. Thanks very much. That's helpful. And then can you just talk a little bit more about Solar, the backlog? I mean, any comments you can make on the turbine side? And just your overall exposure to midstream CapEx? We've seen some pipeline cancellation announcements compared to the upstream side. I mean, the midstream CapEx is in the relatively earlier stages of – it seems to be getting cut. So what do you see in there, and given the long lead times, does this pose risks to the 2017 outlook?
Michael Lynn DeWalt - Vice President-Finance Services Division:
Okay. So we'll kind of address those one at a time. I won't mention names, but a company in the last few days announced a pipeline cut. And that doesn't involve us. It doesn't. We're not part of that. So in particular, that one isn't affecting us. The backlog for Solar has remained pretty stable. I mean, it's only a couple hundred million below where it was a year ago at this time. It actually rose a tiny bit from year end. Most of the decline in the business has been oil-related, not gas-related. I think we feel pretty comfortable with the backlog that we have in. Given the lead times of the projects, our stuff would go in maybe more near the end of a big project. I mean, if you're going to put turbines on a platform, you've got to have the platform up before you put the turbines in. So I think we feel pretty comfortable about this year. And I know you asked about 2017. I'm going to politely defer that, not because I'm trying to be cagey, but because it's way too soon to start talking about 2017. There's a whole range of things that could be positive or negative. I think we're probably couple quarters away from getting a good view of that.
Ross P. Gilardi - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Thanks, Mike.
Michael Lynn DeWalt - Vice President-Finance Services Division:
Thanks, Ross.
Operator:
Thank you. And the next question is coming from Jerry Revich. Jerry, your line is live. Please announce your affiliation and pose your question.
Jerry Revich - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Hi. Good morning. It's Goldman Sachs.
Michael Lynn DeWalt - Vice President-Finance Services Division:
Hi, Jerry. Go ahead.
Jerry Revich - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Mike, can you talk about the manufacturing facility restructuring program. In the press release, you spoke about 15 facilities have been consolidated. In what inning of that process are we? How many more are we thinking about in front of us on a relative basis to what's been done? And in the past, you've spoken about low 20%s incremental margin targets in a recovery. I'm wondering if the thought process has changed at all based on the change in the footprint.
Michael Lynn DeWalt - Vice President-Finance Services Division:
Well, couple of things on that. When we made the announcement last year in September about these restructuring actions, we were thinking maybe 20 facilities would be impacted. We've announced about 15 plus facilities now this on-highway vocational truck. So at least in terms of numbers of facilities, I think we're pretty far down that path. There's still more to go. And certainly, it will take a little – even for the ones that we've announced, these phase ins, it takes a while to shut down and change and shed the cost. So we still – from a savings standpoint, we still have quite a bit to go. So that's a positive. On the incrementals I think low 20%s is too small a number. Normally, we think of incrementals as around 25%. I think based on all the actions that we've done when recovery starts, Doug has been probably the most vocal in saying this, and I believe it, too. We should probably do a bit better than that when things turn around because we certainly have plenty of capacity right now for most of our products and a period fixed cost structure that could handle a bit more.
Jerry Revich - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Okay. And on mining, obviously the commodity price recovery is fairly fresh but I'm wondering if you can comment on what you're seeing at the dealer level for parts demand. Any sort of pickup recently? There have been a couple of higher cost producers that have come back online. I'm wondering if your dealers are reporting pickup in inquiries or broader demand levels for the parts business.
Michael Lynn DeWalt - Vice President-Finance Services Division:
So for mining in particular, it was not a very good first quarter for aftermarket. We said that in the release for Resource Industries. So looking backwards over the last quarter, no, no signs of turnaround at all there. More broadly on aftermarket for the company, I think we feel pretty confident in the outlook for parts, and I think it's a little bit like construction. Sentiment seems to be a little bit more positive, but probably a little too soon to declare victory.
Jerry Revich - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. And the next question is coming from Jamie Cook. Jamie, your line is live. Please announce your affiliation and pose your question.
Jamie L. Cook - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker):
Hi. Good morning, Credit Suisse. I guess two questions. One, Doug, if you could just provide – and I know in your prepared remarks, you gave some color on China, but I think investors are really trying to struggle with how real is the stimulus, how long this will last. Some of your peers have come out and said the stronger equipment sales in the first part of the year had been more emissions driven and to expect – and for the buy, I guess wasn't real. So I'm just trying to gauge your confidence level. Or are you trying to call China as the bottom? And do you expect things to continue to be strong after the quote unquote pre-buy? And then I guess my second question which I don't know if you'll answer, but I'll try. You've cut numbers today which, I think, the Street wanted. At the same time, your commentary whether it was China or the U.S. seems a little more constructive relative to last quarter. So are you feeling better about the economy? And if there's downside risk to your earnings going forward where are you most concerned? Thank you.
Douglas R. Oberhelman - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Yeah, thank you. I would share the caution in China. I am pretty sure that it's more than just the tier change, the Tier 3 institution implementation on April 1. Our folks over there were pretty emphatic that that's going to hold and that this is beyond pre-buy. But I am very cautious about how far that goes, and I would share that as well. We're going to have to watch this month by month and see where it goes. There's no question though that the government is concerned about growth. And too slow of a growth and a change in growth will be much more negative than some stimulus now, and I think that's what they're trying to balance. So I'm not going to declare a bottom in China, I don't know. But certainly, this is, as I said earlier, the first post-Chinese New Year where we've had sustained shipments now 60 days going on 90 days past the New Year in several years. So I am watching that, and I am cautious, but that's a better statistic than we've had.
Jamie L. Cook - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker):
Do you know if the trends continued into April, what we know so far?
Douglas R. Oberhelman - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
I do not know that.
Jamie L. Cook - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker):
Okay.
Douglas R. Oberhelman - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
And if I did, I probably wouldn't tell you.
Jamie L. Cook - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker):
Okay. I have to try. Sorry. And then just broader on the macro, are you more positive today? Where do you see the biggest risk to downside earnings because we're all trying to gauge? Is this last cut?
Douglas R. Oberhelman - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Yeah. Again, going over to Europe, we met with hundreds of customers and all of our major dealers over there. And it was hard to find any more pessimism than that's been there for several years. They all recognize it's been a seven-year slog. They all recognize there's not a boom coming, but at the same time, the stories were much more positive. And even France, in an election year there, is stimulating a bit into infrastructure, and some of those big projects we're feeding, and thus, our big dealer there was feeling better. So I would say that a bit – a very small bit of optimism is in order in Europe. But I've been there now the last two years. I said about a year ago that Europe was two years behind the United States, I still believe that. So it's a very, very slow crawl out. I don't see much negativism there right now. I'd say the downside is continued – the continued disappointment around oil and energy. I think that could go a while. I do think that our numbers are at a point where it's hard to go from – yeah, from two to one is a 100% drop, but it's not a material amount of impact on us. But we saw some of that in the first quarter in Resource. So we're getting near the bottom in all that just because there's – we're at the bottom. But the downside would be – and any big downsides going to be something we all don't see coming, and frankly, I've talked about that before, too. So all in all, I would say slightly more feeling better about things but very, very cautious.
Jamie L. Cook - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker):
Okay. Thank you. I appreciate. I'll get back in queue.
Michael Lynn DeWalt - Vice President-Finance Services Division:
I think we have time for one more question.
Operator:
Okay. The next question is coming from Eli Lustgarten. Eli, your line is live. Please announce your affiliation and pose your question.
Eli Lustgarten - Longbow Research LLC:
Longbow Securities. Good morning, everyone. Thanks for...
Michael Lynn DeWalt - Vice President-Finance Services Division:
Good morning, Eli.
Eli Lustgarten - Longbow Research LLC:
Can we talk a little bit – during the commentary, Mike, you sort of gave us some outlook for the relative sectors. Now we have a restatement of all the numbers, but the...
Michael Lynn DeWalt - Vice President-Finance Services Division:
Right.
Eli Lustgarten - Longbow Research LLC:
...implication is that the 5% to 10% decline in Construction is about the same. But on your numbers it says the 15% decline in E&T that was sort of talked about looks like it'll be closer to 20%, and the 20% decline in Resources looks like it'll be closer to 25% based on the $1 billion change. Is that still a fair statement? And more importantly, we're losing money, it might be more modestly in Resources. With the bankruptcy in PBD (57:29) and U.S. coal production right now down 32% year-to-date, are the losses going to get worse for a while before they get better or can you give us some quantification of what's going on in that sector?
Michael Lynn DeWalt - Vice President-Finance Services Division:
All right. You've got couple questions wrapped up there, and I think I can deal with both of them. The first one on kind of what we said last time, we said CI down 5% to 10%, that's I think still pretty good. We said RI would be down 15% to 20%, and that's probably still in the range, but it's maybe moved up a little. On E&T, we said 10% to 15%. I think it's fair to say that range still holds true, but they're right at the top of it. So I think for E&T, about 15% is probably better than the 10% to 15%. And on the U.S. coal, that business is so low right now, we're not selling much into that industry. So I think all the negative around – I don't want to say all – I think fundamentally the negatives of the market are already in our sales.
Eli Lustgarten - Longbow Research LLC:
Yeah, I guess – I'm asking about the profitability of the Resource business and sales. I mean will the losses get worse for a while as we go through the rest of this year? Or are we able to keep the current loss rate? Or at least some idea what's going to happen in that sector.
Michael Lynn DeWalt - Vice President-Finance Services Division:
Yeah, I don't see anything that would make it worse. I think this is probably – the backlog for that business has stayed pretty flat. Kind of what's coming in and what's going out are on a reasonable balance. So I don't see anything out there that would cause it right now anyway, at least over the next couple of quarters to shift down.
Douglas R. Oberhelman - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Let me just add to that, Eli. Doug here. There's two things that are going to happen in mining, Resource Industries is specifically mining for us. Number one, we've got a lot of restructuring underway right now and that will help us down the road. Number two, there will – ore is being mined, coal is being mined, trucks are still running, tractors are still dozing, motors are still loading around the world. The replacement cycle has been stretched out a long way which is the first time that's happened to us including parts. And at some point that replacement cycle will come to us, parts first, then rebuilds and then new truck orders. And those are the things we're waiting for. We're closer to it than ever I think just because of the longevity of the replacement cycle here. And we should start to see that I would say at any time. Maybe we're seeing it some signs of it in a few areas as someone mentioned on the call a minute ago but it will come to us.
Eli Lustgarten - Longbow Research LLC:
Okay. Right. Thank you very much.
Michael Lynn DeWalt - Vice President-Finance Services Division:
Okay. With that, thank you again for joining us. This concludes our call, and we'll talk to you next quarter.
Operator:
Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. This does conclude today's conference call. You may disconnect your phone lines at this time, and have a wonderful day. Thank you for your participation.
Executives:
Doug Oberhelman – Chairman & Chief Executive Officer Michael DeWalt – Vice President, Finance Services Brad Halverson – Group President and Chief Financial Officer
Analysts:
Jerry Revich – Goldman Sachs Robert Wertheimer – Barclays Capital Inc. Joel Tiss – BMO Capital Markets Ross Gilardi – Bank of America Merrill Lynch David Raso – Evercore ISI Institutional Equities Jamie Cook – Credit Suisse Securities Ann Duignan - JP Morgan Securities
Operator:
Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Caterpillar Full Year and 4Q 2015 Results Conference Call. At this time, all participants have been placed on a listen-only mode and we will open the floor for your questions and comments after the presentation. It is now my pleasure to turn the floor over to your host, Mike DeWalt. Sir, the floor is yours.
Michael DeWalt:
Thank you Paul and good morning everyone and welcome to our year-end earnings call. I'm Mike DeWalt, Caterpillar's Vice President of Finance Services. On the call with me this morning, we have our Doug Oberhelman, our Chairman and CEO; and Brad Halverson, our Group President and CFO. Now this morning we're going to do the call similar to what we did last October. We'll be going through a short slide deck before we get to the Q&A. And if you don't have it yet the slide deck, it's available on our website, at caterpillar.com and it's with the conference call webcast link. This call is copyrighted by Caterpillar Inc. and any use, recording or transmission of any portion of the call is strictly prohibited. If you'd like a copy of today's call transcript, we will be posting that in the Investors section of our caterpillar.com website and it will be in the section labelled Results Webcast. This morning we'll be discussing forward-looking information that certainly involves risks and uncertainties and assumptions that could cause actual results to differ materially from the forward-looking information. A discussion of some of those factors individually or in the aggregate that could make actual results differ materially from our projections well that can be found in our cautionary statements under Item 1A, or which is Risk Factors in our 10-K filed last February and it's in the forward-looking statements language in today’s financial release and near the front of this morning's slide deck. In addition, a reconciliation of non-GAAP measures can also be found in our financial release and again that's been posted on our website at caterpillar.com. Okay. With that, let's get started, if I could ask you to pull out the slide deck and flip to page three and that's the agenda of our slide deck. I'll start this morning with a quick review of the fourth quarter and the full year of '15 and the outlook for 2016. And then I'll hand off to Doug and he'll cover a few of the key points that we were trying to make in this morning's financial release. So with that, let's flip to what would be page four of the bottom of the slide deck. And this is a fourth quarter 2015 results versus fourth quarter 2004. And you can see on here that sales and revenues are down $3.2 billion from $14.2 billion to $11 billion that's a 23% drop. And I'll kind of talk about that two ways; first about $2.7 billion of that was lower volume, selling fewer things and most of that was lower end user demand, about $400 million of it was related to reductions in dealer inventory. Price realization was negative in the quarter about $124 million and we did have a stronger dollar versus the fourth quarter of '14, which causes our sales outside the U.S. to translate into fewer dollars and in this case quarter-over-quarter or negative about $400 million. So that's the $3.2 billion. If you look at that by segment, the biggest decline was Energy & Transportation, it was off $1.8 billion. About $8.8 billion of that was CI construction and about half of that, a little more than half of that was where the dealer inventory impact was most concentrated. And then about $0.5 billion was Resource Industries and again that's mostly mining. So the decline was across the board, but a bit more concentrated quarter-over-quarter in Energy & Transportation and I think given what's happened to oil prices over the course of the past year that's probably not a big surprise. Now the profit impact of those changes - or of that decline in sales volume was about $940 million negative. The next largest item quarter-over-quarter is restructuring costs and they were negative $585 million, they went from $97 million in the fourth quarter a year ago to $682 million this year. And a lot of that increase is a result of the fairly significant actions that we announced last September and are in the middle of implementing right now. Costs though were favourable about $461 million and that's pretty much all in excluding restructuring versus a year ago, so that's good news. Now taxes, I know it's probably a little hard to follow what's happening with taxes. It was a very low kind of all in tax impact in both quarters. The rate this year is a little lower than last year and we had $85 million of favourable tax items in the fourth quarter of '14 and $77 million in the fourth quarter of '15. So a little bit hard to follow, but not a massive impact quarter-over-quarter. If we look at the profit numbers on the table, up above all in profit in the fourth quarter a year ago was $1.23. We actually had a loss of $0.15 in the fourth quarter of '15 and a lot of that was because of the significant restructuring costs. So the all in change was a decline of the $1.38 a share. Excluding the restructuring costs in '14, the fourth quarter was $1.35, the fourth quarter of '15 was $0.74 and we were down $0.61. We continue to report our results both with and without restructuring costs. We think it's important to help you understand what's going on in the business. So that's the fourth quarter, let's look to page 5 that's the full year. It was obviously a tough year for us in 2015. Sales were off $8.2 billion, vast majority of that was lower sales volume, but the stronger dollar impacted the full year in kind of the same way did the quarter. In terms of segments; Energy & Transportation was the largest decline at $3.8 billion, that was oil, rail, electric power. So a fairly widespread within E&T. Construction Industries was down $2.8 billion and Resource Industries $1.4 billion. So from a profit standpoint all in we were $5.88 in 2014, all in including restructuring, we dropped to $3.50 in 2015 and that's a decline of $2.38 a share, more than all of that is the decline in volume. If you take out restructuring costs, we were $6.38 in '14 and $4.64 in '15 down $1.74. And I think the story for '15 is big sales headwind $8.2 billion, but we worked really hard on lowering costs. We took significant restructuring actions and new restructuring actions began in the third quarter. Our costs were about $520 million favourable and that's net of about $350 million of unfavorable cost absorptions, so let me explain that a little bit. In 2014 sales were pretty flat with 2013, not a big change. So inventory didn't change much. It was about $400 million in '14, so inventory absorption wasn't a big deal in '14. In '15, inventory declined $2.5 billion, so that's $2.1 billion more than it did in 2015 and there's a pretty significant cost impact of that sizable decline in inventory, order of magnitude 350 and so without that cost would have been even more favourable. Share count was positive to profit year-over-year, about $0.16 a share and that's - a lot of that is the full year impact of the significant repurchases we did in '14 and a partial year impact of the repurchases that we did in '15. Overall bottom line all in on tax, not much change year-over-year. So that's the full year and if you take out the restructuring costs, I would just mention that our decremental operating profit margins were about 20%. And we would consider that to be pretty good performance, it's better than our 25% to 30% target. So let's flip to the next page, page 6. Now page 6 is a little discussion on how we did versus our outlook and in this case we're, since so much transpired over the year. We're kind of taking a long look back, how did we do versus what we told you we thought we would do a year ago right now in our year end call for '14. Then how did we come out versus the outlook that we had in place at the end of October, the last conference call that we had the third quarter financial release. So if you look down the numbers in January, a year ago we were expecting sales and revenues this year to be $50 billion, profit per share to be $4.60, restructuring cost to be only $150 million and then profit per share excluding those restructuring costs to be around $4.75. Now what we actually had was sales and revenues that were $47 billion and that's in the third column, which were $3 billion below where we thought they would be, when we started the year. I think everything that happened with oil prices, commodities in general, increased weakness in China. Most of the sales decline that we actually had in '15 we had anticipated that outlook, we were down from that about $3 billion. Profit per share is lower by $1.10 and quite a bit of that is restructuring costs, were a lot higher and again that's because we announced pretty substantial new actions in September. So excluding restructuring costs we were at $4.64 and that's $0.11 a share shy of where our outlook was when we started the year. I think our view would be on a $3 billion sales decline, even given all the puts and takes that's pretty good performance. Now versus the last outlook that we provided in late October of 2015, we said our outlook was going to be about $48 billion and we kind of clarified that a little further, as somewhere in the range of $47 billion and $48 billion. We were looking at profit per share of $3.70 and that included $800 million of restructuring costs. Then excluding restructuring we were looking at $4.60. Well, what we actually did was a little worse on sales. It's been a continuing, challenging environment. Profit per share was lower and that's largely because we had more restructuring costs than we expected at the time. Excluding restructuring, we ended up the year at $4.64, actually a little ahead of our outlook. Now I've seen a few of this morning's analyst reports and for sure we did not have the tax extenders in our previous outlook. So that was an unanticipated benefit for us and in several analyst reports I think you picked that up. The flipside of that is we also had a fairly sizable charge for legal matter in our fourth quarter, we didn't expect that either and it really wasn't related to operations, if you will in the quarter and those two items about offset each other. So I would say all in, despite lower sales we did a little bit better than our outlook and we're pretty pleased with that. So let's talk about 2016, a lot going on in 2016. So let's flip to page 7; first we'll do sales and revenues. It looks to us, like another tough year, we don't really; we're not forecasting any real improvement in the overall world economy. We're not banking on commodities getting better and as a result of that we're looking at $40 billion to $44 billion in sales and revenues, a midpoint there is about $42 billion. Now that is about $3.5 billion below where we were thinking last October, when we gave a preliminary outlook. I think that's probably not too surprising to most of you with continued slide in oil prices to down around $30 a share and I would say continuing concern and worry around emerging markets, particularly China. So as we look at next year and what we think will happen with sales or what we're expecting, another down year for Energy & Transportation down 10% to 15%. Now quite a bit of that decline is around timing, so we knew oil prices were coming down last year. We expected that to weaken party substantially in 2014 and it did. But most of that reduction was in the second half of the year. We started 2014 with a pretty sizable backlog and we sold out the backlog for the first half of the year in Energy & Transportation, particularly in the reciprocating engines for oil customers. So if you looked at Energy & Transportation at their first half of '15, they were only down 6% versus the prior year. Second half of the year was down 27%, that is kind of how we thought it would play in, it's what we signalled at the beginning of the year, stronger first half, weaker second half and now we see kind of that level of business continuing on with the recip oil and gas out on into 2015. It [ph] being down 5% to 10% and Resource Industries down another 15% to 20%. Now on Resource Industries the bad news is that it looks it's found another 15% to 20%, that's really a tough business in mining, very few orders. Many of our customers are in sort of challenged financial conditions. But what I would say is sales of new equipment in that number are quite low. You never want to say never about upside and downside risk, but there are so little new equipment in there, I think it's fair to say the downside risk is somewhat limited. In terms of profit per share, we put in a table here and this is the table that was in our financial release. There's a lot of moving parts, so I thought it would help to walk through it piece by piece. So if you look at our outlook for 2016, all in profit per share we're looking at $3.50 and that includes restructuring costs and that includes pension changes that we are making. We're making a change in accounting principle, it relates to our defined benefit plans primarily. It's positive to our results about $0.50 a share and the way you want to think about this is we're moving from an accounting method that smoothes actuarial gains and losses from prior years into current year results. We're moving from that to a method that's kind of more mark-to-market and will be a closer representation of what our current year costs really are and that's favourable about $425 million in and of itself and that's about $0.50 a share. We also have another $400 million or so of restructuring costs in our outlook and that's about $0.50. So all in excluding restructuring costs were at $4 a share, so that's the outlook for 2016 on sales and profit. In terms of profit, the negatives are lower sales as we go into 2016 from $47 billion down to the midpoint, would be $42 billion, so at a midpoint that's a $5 billion profit drop, offset by considerable cost reduction. A lot of that as a result of the restructuring actions that we started to put in place last September. So with that I'll turn the floor over to Doug Oberhelman.
Doug Oberhelman:
Okay. Good morning everyone and I do want to make a few key points as I look back on '15 and forward into '16. Mike said it was a very tough year, but when you think about everything that happened, the challenges, the chaos in sometime during the year with events around the world, a year ago today we were expecting $50 billion in sales, we ended up at $47 billion, that $3 billion is quite a drop, but we really only reduced our profit per share outside of restriction by $0.11. As Mike there's a lot involved in that, up and down, but basically I'm pretty pleased with cost management, the restructuring actions we took in the fourth quarter, actually they were more aggressive than we had planned and announced and we took about $100 million more because of it. But that will suit us up well for 2016, so our team really did a good job and it's tough to say but we're getting used to cycles here. Our 2009 volume at $32 billion, we doubled the company in three years in 2012 we're down about 30% from that now and that will serve this team very well in the years and decades ahead as everyone [ph] go through these kind of cycles in a short dates. Secondly, operationally 2015 was one of our better years. One thing and I've talked about this before. One of the proxies I used for plant management is their safety record, and when I go to plants I look at - for that matter, I want to go to customers' job sites, it's the same thing. But if there's a safe environment, they tell me about it and their numbers are good, chances are we're going to see high quality, we're going to see engaged employees, and we're going to see a profitable plant. Safety for us hit a record level of - well, recordable injury frequency in 2015 at 0.6. which is really world-class we think for heavy manufacturing. Our market position, fifth year in a row of improvement around the world and virtually across all markets for that matter and most all products. And I think that goes back to saying something about the quality of our product, the quality of our design, our Tier 4 implementation as well as our dealer distribution organization, which right now is very strong. Then finally Mike mentioned it, but I would point it out again. Our decremental operating profit of 20%, if you really look at that without restructuring, I think it's really 17% and while that agreement happened in the fourth quarter, but that's that we wanted to do. So very happy with that and again sets us up for '16, so well. Our balance sheet is strong, we put some of the data in the release this morning. We saw a lot of free cash flow, about $5.2 billion in 2015, another great year. Certainly we'll see another positive cash flow year this year, more than enough to cover our dividend and our CapEx. I would say that we are scrubbing CapEx, very hard and taking a really close look at every line item, we'll get that number down below 15 and we're still working through it. Finally our focus on use of cash as you know has been fairly well stated over the years, but at the moment it's our balance sheet, our credit rating and protecting our dividend. With the cash we have on the balance sheet, with the leverage we have today, which is the best it's ever been at this stage of a cycle, going back to many, many of our downturns, we feel pretty good about that, but that's really a high priority for us today is to protect that dividend and that balance sheet. We did a little conference call in November around Cat Financial. We really liked that business, it's strategic to us, we would not have the market position we have without Cat Financial and the loyalty with our customers. Actually in 2015 they hit a very high market share number for what they financed. The quality of that asset portfolio is very good, past due has actually improved a little bit from 2014. Just to emphasize that we really at Cat Financial only use that captive finance company to finance Caterpillar product, yellow iron or yellow iron inside others products, where yellow iron is a big piece of it. We have not varied from that strategy. We won't vary from that strategy. It is so key and crucial to us in delivering our market performance around the world and it's a really well managed company and really helping us through the cycles as well. Looking into 2016 tough market, I would expect bumps in the road all through the year, we've taken that outlook down to $42 billion, another drop of $5 billion, little over 10% reduction. About 30% off our peak in '12 and I expect to see, frankly, commodities of all stripes and all kinds and oil for that matter not to move too much. It can move up or down, we'll see what happens, but we're really going into this with an eyes wide open, realistic view of it. We're going to end up the year with what we went into within, and where we are in commodity markets and other economies as well. Brazil, Russia, some of the areas where really challenged, we're baking into this outlook, continued tough times in a lot of those markets as well. So I really am hoping that this is a very realistic look. We've got some restructuring - more restructuring coming to us that will help. We think we're about right size for right now, of course we've got some other restructuring that we'll be announcing as early as tomorrow, with another one - another round that will fulfil some of the things we talked about in September. I also want to talk about inventory a little bit, we think we're pretty close and really not that excessive with inventory around the world. But we probably will see a slight some more here reduction in dealer inventory. We've actually been producing at factory rates less than retail sales for a while and we as a result seeing dealer inventory drop $1 billion and our own drop $2.5 billion. So we've really seen a drop here in the last year, which again sets up nicely into 2016. Then a little bit more on restructuring, I think we are committed to that walk through number of 25 to 30 up and down. As I said we're 17 to 20 in 2015. We announced in September our goal was 4,000 to 5,000 positions eliminated. By the end of the year in fact, we were slightly over 5,000 on the 1st of January and with a few more to go, yet early in '16, which should fulfil that program and our cost reduction goals. Finally and this is the one that's a good news, I feel really good about, I'm going to talk about it for a minute, that's our efforts around digital technology, innovation and R&D. We increased R&D slightly in 2015. We're going to hold it, at about that level, as long as we can in 2016 and I would just point out that we also did something similar to this in '09 and '10 at the depths of the recession. We cut R&D but we didn't cut it to the bone, that was the one thing we held onto as long as we could. Those efforts in research and development that we made at that time on new products have hit the marketplace in our Tier 4 interim and final products being introduced, the last of it this year. We have seen a substantial increase in the quality of the products, design of the products and acceptance in the marketplace. Not to mention fuel economies across the board. Today we're in the same boat, post-year for with lots of powertrain development, all kinds of alternative proportion methods coming through, which will be coming out of products in '17, '18 and '19. We want to continue that because we've seen the benefits of that in market share, we'll see the benefits of that in the future and we're going to do all we can to hold that. So well that's a high number and subject to cut, talk if we have to and we will. We're doing all we can to preserve that. Then around the digital technology space, you've seen an awful lot of utterances from us last year, the formation of a joint venture with a key partner, closer ties with other existing and traditional partners as well. The digital transformation is incurring a reality and we are going to lead this in our industry. While it's challenging and our cycle with portfolio, if we had a better cycle we'd probably spend more, we're doing all we can to extend our leadership in this area. What we are aiming at is quite a bit different than others. I would say we're aiming at the internet of Caterpillar things, so that when we think about what we're doing with digital technology, what we're doing with site preparation and technology, machine guidance technology, machine health technology, it's all about our installed base of the 3 million machines and engines. Rail, construction, mining the things we do. We have no interest in going beyond that because we want to take care of our customers, as we have been doing for 90 years. We have the domain knowledge of what our customers use our machines to do. We have knowledge of our machines. Our idea is to make a ready platform, lots of sensors across our machines and other brands to make sure that our customer gets the most out of their construction equipment in his or her fleet. I suspect that in the next year or two, five [ph] this will be a tremendous and we'll be talking a lot more to you about it in our investor meetings and so on as we get there. Just this month, we're commercializing our locomotive, internet technology that's led all of our segments and it's now ready to go. We're in the middle stages of taking that to construction equipment, we'll have some of that ready mid-year and a lot of it by the end of the year. But the idea here is really a lot of value creation for customers, reducing downtime and lowering owning and operating costs by predicting failures, by allowing them to take less passes across a parking lot for example. Better fuel economies and efficiencies as a result, all through this overwhelming amount of data that we can now receive, process and feedback to our customers, our dealers and even our factories in a way that we've never been able to do it before. We have a lot to say on this, there's been a lot written about it. I'm really happy where we are and our speed to market on this is un- Caterpillar like in terms of iron development. I'm quite happy about that, that's why we've gone to outside partner. So Mike, I'll turn it back over to you with those comments.
Michael DeWalt:
All right. Thanks, Doug. Paul, we're ready to open the floor for our Q&A.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] And your first question is coming from Jerry Revich. Jerry, please announce your affiliation and pose your question.
Jerry Revich:
Hi, good morning everyone. It's Goldman Sachs. I'm wondering if you could talk about your expectations for solar, just flesh that out for us, if you could Mike this year? Comment on cadence over the course of a year within the past month we've seen pipeline MLPs cut CapEx and wondering if you could just calibrate us and what you're seeing in the order book?
Michael DeWalt:
Yeah, good question, Jerry, happy to do that. So as is almost usual, solar had a great fourth of 2015, we expected that and in fact they did. Backlog for solar was despite that big shipping quarter in the fourth quarter was about the same at year-end as it was at the end of the third quarter, so no deterioration in their backlog. In fact if you look at solar's total backlog it's about the same as it was at the end of '14. What's happened to their business is the oil piece of it has declined quite a bit, the natural gas piece of it is holding up quite nicely. We kind of signalled that we would have some reduction in solar, in third quarter we did the preliminary outlook. We said they would likely decline, but less than 10% and nothing has really changed there.
Jerry Revich:
Then separately, Doug, the last point that you made, the Caterpillar Internet of Things, can you talk about your expectations in five years are we looking at a significant revenue and profit pool for your business? What kind of business model should we be thinking about for you folks to monetize all of the valuable fleet that you have in the field and the opportunity to monetize that data. How should we think about the business model?
Doug Oberhelman:
It's not going to be a software charge-off system at all. We're going to measure it and the benefit to us will be in aftermarket parts, aftermarket service. In connection to the customer through the products that we sell and service and that's really where we're headed as opposed to a software for free basis, pretty simple. It's just it adjunct to what we're already doing in so many varieties [ph] today with aiming directly at our customers.
Michael DeWalt:
Thanks, Jerry.
Jerry Revich:
Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. And your next question is coming from Robert Wertheimer. Robert please mention your affiliation and pose your question.
Robert Wertheimer:
Its Barclays and good morning everybody. I guess, a dual question on price and cost. You've had a little bit of lower pricing, although I think under your leadership Doug, you guys have been very, very competitive, gained a lot of share and not maybe margins with price [ph], so I get that. But you still had a little bit of a contraction price, so was there anything major going on with either currency or is it inventory flush or what's doing that? Are you able to continue to get cost back from your suppliers? Are you sort of ahead of the curve or does that continue to flow through into '17, the materials moves we've already seen?
MichaelDeWalt:
Hey, Rob this is Mike, I'll start this out. I'm going to start a little bit with material costs. We've done actually very well over the last, I don't know three, four years on material cost. I think we in combination taken out over $1 billion. So over that timeframe and last year '15 was a good chunk of that. So it's been a combination of actually lower commodity prices have helped some. But all the work we've done on lean, resourcing, engineered value change, our investments in R&D, our partnerships with suppliers, that helped generated a pretty good chunk of that cost reduction as well. So if you relate that to our price realization, that was a net benefit for us in 2015. I mean, we had continued good material cost reduction and our pricing overall was pretty neutral. It was favourable in the first half of the year, unfavorable in the second half. As we look ahead to 2016, that will probably shift down a little bit. I think given where commodity prices are right now we're not expecting as much benefit because we don't see another big leg down. So the material cost reduction that we have [indiscernible] on the things that we do to get it. By the same token price realization is tougher, and I think in large part or a chunk of what's going on, particularly in construction is and we've had a stronger dollar over the course of the past year. There are translation effects of that that happen immediately. We're selling in euros in Europe and that changes, but the competitive effects in the U.S. and in countries where say we in Komatsu are competing against each other whether it'd be Latin America or Europe. I think the impact of the stronger dollar is starting to bite a little bit. Another thing that's hurt us on price a bit in particularly the fourth quarter and this might be a little bit hard to follow. But actually where we're selling product matters a bit. We have different price levels in different parts of the world. I would tell you if you look at construction in the fourth quarter, there was a large decline in Latin America like 49% I think in CI. We tend to have better price realization there than we do in some other parts of the world. And so that hurt the overall kind of average price in the quarter as well. So I guess, bottom line, stronger dollar, I think very competitive environment with volumes lower. A little bit of negative geography for us, the flipside of that is still continued good work on material costs.
Doug Oberhelman:
Just to add a little philosophy here. You alluded to what we've tried to do over the last few years and you're exactly right, that's raised our market share. We've had, - we've done well with that. That one will change. This business is run field population and as long as that field population is building, it allows our dealers to really survive in tough times like these and thrive in good times and that's going to continue. But we have baked a little bit more in as Mike said for price. We've got the dollar situation, we've got excess capacity with competitors all over the place and we think we can juggle that in a way where we can continue to move our market position up, while kind of guarding the margin as well, but it's a balance. It's the same balance we've been working on the last five or six years.
Robert Wertheimer:
Thank you, Doug.
Doug Oberhelman:
Thanks Rob.
Operator:
Thank you. And your next question is coming from Joel Tiss. Please mention your affiliation and pose your question.
Joel Tiss:
I just wonder if you can help us a little bit with some first half, second half color especially in E&T, you're going to have tough comps, obviously in the first half of the year. Can you give us any idea like revenue decline first half versus second half or anything to help us figure that out?
MichaelDeWalt:
Yeah, Joel and I've mentioned and I've said a lot earlier, but if we look back at '15 we had a lot more decline in the second half of the year than the first half of the year and that's because the first half of last year was helped by the size of the backlog, particularly around drilling and well servicing, that's pretty well gone now. So I think it's safe to say that year-over-year in that decline that we're expecting for Energy & Transportation the 10 to 15, it will probably more than that in the first half and less than that in the second half. We don't really do the quarterly breakdown, but your sentiment what your thinking is actually correct? Year-over-year a lot tougher in the first half than the second half. I know that wasn't detailed, but --
Joel Tiss:
Yeah, but basically I get between the lines you're saying that business is expected to be pretty much flat for the year, so we can just figure out what that means for you now?
MichaelDeWalt:
No. Down 10 to 15, but probably down more than that in the first half and probably less than half in the second half.
Joel Tiss:
Any signs of any aftermarket business stabilizing, that's usually the early warning signs that were deep enough into a downturn that things are starting to stabilize?
MichaelDeWalt:
Well you know, on a percentage and even dollar basis the change and after-market has gone down, no doubt about that over the last couple of years. But the decline is much less than what's happened in new equipment. The fourth quarter was down, again so right white I would say there's no signs that that's really kicking up. But the longer customers work existing machines and don't replace as long as the output tends to holdup at some point here that will need to happen, so far hasn't.
Joel Tiss:
Okay. Thank you.
MichaelDeWalt:
Thanks, Joel.
Operator:
Thank you. And the next question is coming from Ross Gilardi. Ross please mention your affiliation and pose your question.
Ross Gilardi:
Yeah, good morning, thanks guys. Bank of America. So Mike I believe present your solution impose your question in 20 think I said think America. So Mike I believe you guys normally have your annual impairment test in the fourth quarter. It doesn't look like you've booked any impairments. Even though you've had a [indiscernible] competitor just write off 50% of its book value. So I'm just wondering if you could talk about that. I mean, you're speaking very candidly about all the pressures in the mining business that you've now been feeling for four years in a row. So can you talk about the rationale for not writing down a big portion of goodwill on the back of his latest test?
MichaelDeWalt:
Yeah I can do that. So first the current mining business is weak. There's no doubt about that. Second what I would tell you is we just in the fourth quarter to your point. We completed an impairment test with what we believe is a pretty realistic forecast going forward and we had no impairment. If there's an event that causes us or triggers us to do it again before the next fourth quarter, we'll do that. But I mean we did the math, there's no impairment. But I think one thing you need to remember about this business is it's highly cyclical. You know where the business is at today, at least from our piece of it. The sales of equipment to that industry. We're well below a replacement level, it has to return and to at least a replacement level over time. You do an impairment test and that's a long-term view of what's going to happen. It's not based on what's going to happen next year. And we've done it consistent with the way we have. We didn't been have an impairment, I don't know what else to say about that. I'm not on the inside and our competitors, accounting department, so it's hard for me to comment on what they did.
Ross Gilardi:
And then Doug, I just had kind of a bigger picture question. I mean, in the last couple of days we have seen Zoomlion bidding for Terex publicly. And while they might not be a huge direct competitor of Caterpillar's, does the prospect of a big Chinese OEM buying a listed U.S. company, potentially set a precedent that concerns Caterpillar?
Doug Oberhelman:
We saw a signing by Putzmeister, I don't know three or four years ago and become really a dominant player in - maybe deep down player in concrete pumping. Crane business, yes, still a pretty broad. I would guess we're going to see more Chinese investment in United States and all kinds of things, we'll see how this sorts out if it actually closes up. But it wouldn't surprise me to see some of that. Yeah I expect that's probably a strategy, if I were sitting over there in China, I'd be looking at some of this also. So I would expect to see some of that. I don't think it's going to be an overwhelming wave of things. But certainly they're growing and we've always said we'll see one, two or three emerging Chinese competitors of some kind and maybe that's a move like that around our industry, not certainly, not in it. That we don't really play too much against any more. Although, Terex is a good supplier though the Genie brand to our dealers.
Ross Gilardi:
Got it. Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. And the next question is coming from David Raso. Please announce your affiliation and pose your question.
David Raso:
Evercore ISI. I was wondering if you can just help us a bit with the cadence of the earnings for '16. Just given the moving parts around the restructuring savings, can you give us some pace on that? Even the accounting change, is it simply a linear day one, and just run it out per quarter, just for some sense of the cadence exiting '16?
Doug Oberhelman:
Yeah, David, excellent question. So on the pension that just plays into what the annual cost is and that will be spread evenly essentially over the course of the year. In terms of the restructuring, most of the - at least a short-term benefit that we were expecting for 2016, its a result of heads out and that is as Doug said on target a little ahead of on target. So the vast majority of that will and I mean, what we gave you was a full-year number, so the vast majority of that has already happened as of the first in the year. So that should be pretty good to divide by four, probably not quite that. There's a bit more still to happen, but probably not massively of dividing by four because a lot of the actions are effective at the end of the year, this year.
David Raso:
Well, that's what I'm trying to think about with some of those savings upfront and the pension accounting help upfront. When you look at the $4 number ex restructuring, any help at all on how you think about the cadence and through the year?
Doug Oberhelman:
Yeah, if you just look at our last couple of quarters, we've been right around $11 billion. Now the first and second quarter of '15 were higher, but again that was before some of the declines that we're expecting like oil and gas. So I think as we've kind of gone down for oil and gas, now that that's out of the backlog. I think if you look at the kind of sales cadence for next year, it probably won't be massively off, what a normal distribution is for us. So probably a little bit lower in the first quarter, a little bit higher in the fourth and second quarters and a little bit lower in the third quarter. From a profit standpoint, our first quarter will have a little bit below average sales, likely it's a middle of winter, not really the selling season. So probably a little weaker than average, so that will impact profit to the downside a little bit. The upside of that is the first quarter is usually a pretty good of cost quarter, so that usually helps the first quarter a little bit. So we're not actually providing guidance but for the quarter. But all in all as you do your modelling I would think about probably first quarter down a little bit from average profit, probably not massively far off it.
David Raso:
Okay. And last question Doug, if you spoke to commodity prices, you're not assuming much recovery - the end-market on much recovery. But how are you managing for '17, saying say it another way. If commodities are at the end of this year where they are today, thinking through the inventory reduction you're targeting $1 billion at dealers. Just how should we think about 2017, if commodities are at the end of the year where they are today? I mean, take us through your thoughts on replacement demand, inventory, for the dealer inventory. I mean, we went up $4.5 billion, $5 billion coming out of the great recession. In the last three years we've taken $5 billion out. So work I can't say the inventory is down a lot over the last six years. We kind of went up, we're back down. Is taking $1 billion out enough and just again, just try to set the stage a little bit, how you're managing for '17?
Doug Oberhelman:
Well, right now it's all hands on deck for '16 and hopefully we can get that done. I would say around inventory and inventory turnover as we have been implementing lean in all of our initiatives around our Cat production system. I feel - that fact that we've taken 30% off the top line and inventory down about the same amount or so, just to stay even with that in a falling cycle is pretty darn good. Once we get stable, at a bottom to slightly rising turn, whatever that is and a stable production schedule, I suspect our inventory turnover is going to be very, very acceptable in order to help us. That's about as far as I would go with that, David. Because I don't know if oil or commodities where they'll be a year from now and I really don't want to think about that, other than inventory turnover to efficiency in the plants, our variable margins, that's what's going to get us through that.
David Raso:
Okay. I appreciate it. Thank you.
Brad Halverson:
David it's Brad. Maybe one comment around how we're approaching this relative to priorities. So we did talk a lot about our actions up until September, but we had taken significant restructuring actions to that point. But again in June really 2015, we started a process internally that led to our September restructuring effort. By and large, the cost reduction we're talking about in period cost had protected R&D and our digital spend and other priorities, so we've seen a significant reduction in a lot of the support areas in terms of consolidation and efficiency. I bring this up because sometimes we get the question, what are you going to do if sales continue to drop? I can tell you that we're continuing to work that plan. We understand and got committed to our decremental pull-throughs and so if sales do drop, we may have to cut those some, but we have other restructuring efforts that we're continuing to look at and we'll be prepared and take action on those.
David Raso:
Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. And the next question is coming from Jamie Cook. Please announce your affiliation and pose your question.
Jamie Cook:
Hi, good morning. Credit Suisse. I guess two questions; one, Doug you addressed a lot of, I guess, your confidence level with the balance sheet and protecting the dividend. But can you give any color on how you think about sort of cash flow in 2016. If you look at over the past few years, working capital has been a big source. I guess, the concern is that sort of running out. If earnings are down in '17 that the balance sheet is sort of at risk, so your thoughts on that? Then Mike, I guess, if you - you gave some - a lot of help on the top line, I'm just trying to think about any color you're giving on margins by segment. As I assume resource is still not profitable and in particular E&T, how to think about margins as we exit the year, because I think that's a concern as we approach '17 with still lot rolling off? Thanks.
Doug Oberhelman:
That's a lot there. I'll start with the cash flow. We'll have reasonably good cash flow in '16 at the outlook levels. We'll cover our CapEx again, we're going to work hard to get that number down, we'll cover our dividend and I suspect with positive cash flow above that. So we ought to be able to maintain our balance sheet about where it is, if not strengthen a bit more this year. Again, I'm not going to into '17 too much, but the same philosophy would hold in terms of the priorities of maintaining that. And in fact maybe if we have to get to a point in '16 or '17 to use the strength of the balance sheet to protect the dividend, we will.
Brad Halverson:
I've commented before about that and I think '16 at the outlook numbers were, we feel pretty good about in terms of cash flow et cetera, Mike you can handle the other one.
MichaelDeWalt:
Yeah, on, just a little bit on by segment. We did talk a lot about the sales change and not much about the profit change by segment. So here is what I would say around that. So let's just backtrack a little bit and look at 2015. What happened in 2015 to decrementals. Construction had an awesome year, decrementals and construction were 10%, so their sales were down about $2.8 billion, their profit was down less than 300. And that was despite this legal charge that they got into year. So very good year on managing decrementals. Resource Industries, their decrementals were 36% and I think that was a little over our target range and partly because despite sales going down, we spent more there on R&D. I mean, it's a business that we think will be good for the long-term and we needed to spend investment money in R&D there and in fact we did. Energy & Transportation, they had decrementals of 24%, which I think given the mix of what was down for them. If you look at how much of their business was down because of oil and gas, which tended to be an above average margin business, 24% I think for them is pretty good. In total for the Company and again this is excluding restructuring, we had decrementals of about 20%. That's kind of what we've got baked into next year. I won't comment so - I mean, overall 20%. I won't comment so much on ROS by segment. I mean, like resource industries for example, they are at or below their breakeven point right now. So the ROS number I think is probably less meaningful than the decremental. I think throughout the Company we're working on delivering decent decrementals and a big cost reduction that we have planned for next year, both on material cost or variable cost in total and the big restructuring should help all the segments. So I'm not going to give ROS guidance, but I would say that certainly as a Company and I don't think any of our segments would be big outliers here. We'll be at a better than our, kind of our target decrementals.
Jamie Cook:
Thank you. I'll get back in queue.
MichaelDeWalt:
Alrighty. I think we have time for one more.
Operator:
Thank you. And the next question is coming from Ann Duignan. Please announce your affiliation and pose your question.
Ann Duignan:
Hi, good morning. Thanks for squeezing me in. My first question is just a little bit more big picture. Given the strength of the dollar and the week emerging market economic activity that we're seeing around or maybe specifically Canada and Latin American. Is there any risks that we start to see equipment things either used or unused [ph] kind of flowing back into the U.S. and then thus putting incremental pressure on new equipment sales in the U.S.
Doug Oberhelman:
Good morning, Ann. Actually our EPA regulations have sort of helped that to some degree because of the requirements of low sulphur fuel on machines that are produced in this country and the EPA emissions level. So there may be some of that and we're worried about that for a number of years. I think you're probably also alluding to the great market that we said, we had tended to see in times past where there is currencies that are a little bit out of the line. I think the emissions thing between us and Europe and Japan for the most part and Canada will be involved with that, there may be some flow from Canada here. But Mexico is not in that, Latin America, I think will probably have some amelioration what we've seen in historical levels of that. But something we would keep an eye on.
Ann Duignan:
Okay. Thank you, I appreciate that. Then on the smoothing of the pension plan and going to mark-to-market, I mean, there's a reason why we smoothed in the first place in order to reduce volatility. Are you concerned that moving to mark-to-market might end up adding to your earnings volatility through the course of the coming years?
MichaelDeWalt:
Ann this is Mike, a couple of things. Actually I can't remember the year, several years ago we made a change to sunset or our kind of main defined benefit plans at the end of 2019. Along the way we've been on a path to derisk the asset, the fund balance. We've moved to more fixed income rather than equity and that will likely continue. It's going to sunset again at the end of 2019. That doesn't completely take out volatility, but I think the combination of, we stopped adding people to that plan a long time ago. People in that plan are retiring, we're not adding people to it. It will stop at the end of '19 with shift towards more fixed income, probably be what we're thinking it would reduce the volatility. Somewhat, certainly won't take it away, wouldn't suggest that at all. But as more companies have moved to this method, I think when they have a year-end adjustment for just like we will at the end of this year. I think the market has done a decent job of understanding what's going on and that it is - what it is for what it is. So I don't think it'll - I mean, our view anyway is that it wouldn't impact so much how people are viewing us. If there's a year-end adjustment and we like the change because it better matches what's actually happening from an expense standpoint rather than spreading it over years. So in the current year for example and I said this before, this is not a big unique OTO item that's happening in the year. It's taking out losses from prior years that were masking operating results in the current year. That's our view any way.
Ann Duignan:
Okay. I appreciate. I know we're out of time. But just where will we be, and where do you think will you be at by the end of '16 on restructuring, will you be 100% done or do we have costs in '17 and '18?
MichaelDeWalt:
We'll probably have some cost in '17 and a plan that we announced last September. I think the last parts of it, I think we would expect to wrap up sometime in '18.
Ann Duignan:
Okay. I appreciate. Thank you.
Michael DeWalt:
Thanks, Ann. And thank you all for joining us. We'll talk to you again at the end of the first quarter.
Operator:
Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. This does conclude today's conference call. You may disconnect your phone lines at this time, and have a wonderful day. Thank you for your participation.
Executives:
Michael Lynn DeWalt - Vice President, Finance Services Division Douglas R. Oberhelman - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer Donald James Umpleby - Group President-Energy & Transportation Group
Analysts:
Andrew M. Casey - Wells Fargo Securities LLC Ted Grace - Susquehanna Financial Group LLLP Jamie L. Cook - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker) Jerry David Revich - Goldman Sachs & Co. Ann P. Duignan - JPMorgan Securities LLC
Operator:
Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Third Quarter 2015 Results Conference Call. At this time, all participants have been placed on a listen-only mode and will be open up for the floor for your questions and comments after the presentation. It is now my pleasure to turn the floor over to your host, Mike DeWalt. Sir, the floor is yours.
Michael Lynn DeWalt - Vice President, Finance Services Division:
Thank you very much, and good morning, and welcome, everyone, to our third quarter conference call. I'm Mike DeWalt, Caterpillar's Vice President of Finance Services. And we have quite a few people with us today on the call. Doug Oberhelman, our Chairman and CEO; Brad Halverson, our Group President and CFO; Jim Umpleby, our Group President responsible for Energy & Transportation; Rob Charter, our Group President responsible for Dealer Support; and somebody you'll probably be getting to know a lot better, Amy Campbell. She, effective November 1, becomes our Director of Investor Relations. So we're going to do today's conference call a little bit differently than we have in the past. We're going be going through a slide deck. And if you don't have that in front of you right now, it's available on our website, caterpillar.com, and it's where the conference call link is for the webcast and it's under Events and Presentations and it's also in the Quarterly Results section. So I'll go through the forward-looking statements and if you need to get that, please do. So this call is copyrighted by Caterpillar, Inc. and any use, recording, or transmission of any portion of the call without the expressed written consent of Caterpillar is strictly prohibited. If you'd like a copy of today's call transcript, we will be posting it in the Investor section of our caterpillar.com website and that will be in the section labeled Results Webcast. This morning, we'll be discussing forward-looking information that involves risks, uncertainties and assumptions that could cause our actual results to differ materially from the forward-looking information. A discussion of some of those factors that either individually or in the aggregate could make actual results differ materially from our projections, that can be found in our cautionary statements under Item 1A, risk factors of our Form 10-K filed with the SEC in February of this year, also in the forward-looking statement language in today's release. It's also on page two of this morning's slide deck. In addition, a reconciliation of non-GAAP measures can be found in our financial release as well and at the end of our presentation material. And again all that's been posted at the caterpillar.com website. Okay. With that, let's get started with the slide deck, and if I could ask you to flip to page three. The page numbers are at the bottom of each page. So, the first page is the agenda to the discussion. I'll be going over third quarter results, the 2015 outlook and the preliminary view of 2016. That will go fairly quickly then I'll turn it over to Doug Oberhelman and he'll walk through kind of business conditions in our segments and key industries, actions we've taken, progress we've made and the things we're doing to protect the future of the company. So with that, let's turn to page four. And I'm going to start off with something, again, a little different. If you look to the bottom right-hand corner of the slide – well first at the top of the slide, we have sales and revenues, profit per share, profit per share without restructuring costs. So $13.5 billion in the third quarter a year ago, $11 billion in sales and revenues this third quarter, as a decline of about 19% or $2.5 billion. About 14% of that is volume. About 3.5% of that was currency. Profit per share all-in dropped $1.01 from $1.63 to $0.62 and excluding restructuring costs, the similar amount down $0.97 from $1.72 to $0.75. Now down the bottom right-hand corner I have a comment and it's not year-over-year. The comment is kind of relative to probably the expectations that we had going into the quarter and probably the expectations that you had going into the quarter. We had two items that we didn't really expect that are of some significance here. One is lower incentive compensation. And that's because we lowered the outlook. Our previous outlook, excluding restructuring costs, was $5. The current forecast, excluding restructuring, is $4.60 and that means that incentive comp is going be lower. And we made a year-to-date adjustment to that expense in the third quarter. That was actually favorable for profit about $0.09 a share. The flip side of that is we had currency translation hedging losses on our non-U.S. assets and liabilities. And that was about $135 million negative in the quarter. Now this is not what runs through our operating profit. It's not the translation impact on sales and cost. This is sort of your net monetary position. You have an asset or liability position in foreign currencies or operations outside the U.S. We had losses in this quarter of about $135 million. And a lot of that was from Brazil and China where currencies weakened during the quarter. We don't forecast that. We tend not to forecast short-term currency movements and so versus where we were at the end of July, when we talked about our full-year forecast, that was new news. So now, let's step back a little bit and talk about the change quarter-over-quarter. Again, sales down 19%. That was mostly lower volume. The negative currency about 3.5% and we also had a small change in price realization, negative about 0.5%. And it's certainly a tough environment for pricing out there. Volume down, it's very competitive and the strong dollar is not helping that situation. Now third quarter of last year sales were still pretty strong in our businesses that support oil customers. And it was also a good quarter a year ago for locomotive sales in our Energy & Transportation segment. And both of those businesses are down this year. Energy & Transportation was the biggest contributor to that $2.5 billion decline in sales. They accounted for about $1.4 billion of it. Construction was also down and that was really led by Latin America and Asia. And Latin America, Brazil generally in recession, difficult economic environment there. And sales for us certainly reflect that difficulty. And in Asia, the same can be said for China, slowing growth, quite depressed construction equipment market in China. Resource Industries, which is again principally mining, also down a bit, but as the numbers there decline, percentage changes have less and less impact on the dollars. So that's a quick review of sales. Again, profit in the quarter, excluding restructuring, was $0.97 and with it was down $1.01. And essentially, the profit decline was a result of the lower sales volume. Currency, again, was a little negative overall. I talked about the impact below operating profit, the negative $0.17 in this quarter. It was actually a positive next year. So the year-over-year impact of that, below operating profit currency, was even more. That was offset a little bit by currency benefits up in operating profit, sales translated lower but it was pretty positive for costs. Manufacturing costs and SG&A were both lower and that was a partial offset to the lower volume. So again that's a quick run through of the third quarter. If I could get you to move onto the next slide, slide five, at the top it's titled 2015 outlook. So let's orient the slide. On the right-hand side of the slide, we have the outlook that we had in July with our second quarter financial release. And at that point in time, we were thinking this year was going to be about $49 billion in sales and revenues. Profit of about $4.70 a share, $5 without the restructuring costs. Now you can see in the box below that, a month ago we did update that sales outlook to about $48 billion. We've kept that today. Sales and revenues at the top end about $48 billion. Now it says on the slide here, top end of about $48 billion. So the situation is we have a tendency to round our full year sales forecast to the nearest billion. And most of the time that's okay, when you have quite a bit of runway for the rest of the year. At this point in the year, we only have one quarter to go. So I think it is good to remind everyone that we do tend to round it to the nearest billion. And in this particular case, we've rounded up to $48 billion from our internal forecast. And that's by and large about the same as it was when we updated the outlook a month ago. So if we look at the profit outlook today, it's $4.60 excluding restructuring and $4.60 including some fairly substantial restructuring. The restructuring costs for the year are about – expected to be about $800 million now. In July, with our profit outlook with the second quarter release, we were thinking about $250 million. That big increase is a result of all the actions that we announced on September 24 and I think Doug will talk a little bit more about that in a few minutes. So if you look at the change from excluding restructuring from $5 down to $4.60 really more than all of that was due to or about all of that was due to the decline in the sales and revenues forecast. We also had the $0.17 negative that was in the quarter for currency translation. But partly offsetting that, we have lower cost for the rest of the year. Some because we're, I think, doing a pretty good job of managing costs out and some of it because incentive compensation for the year is going be a bit lower. So that's a quick recap of the 2015 outlook. If I could get you to go to page six and that's the outlook, preliminary outlook for sales and revenues for next year. And this is essentially unchanged from what we said a month ago in our restructuring announcement. We think 2016 is going to be about 5% below 2015. Now this would be our fourth consecutive down year and that's never happened to Caterpillar in the history of the company. Resource Industries, again which is primarily mining, we're expecting to be down around 10%, but again from a very low base. I can tell you, 10% means a lot less today than 10% meant in 2012. Construction Industries down, flat to down 5% from 2015; Energy & Transportation down 5% to 10% and that's mostly, not entirely, but mostly oil and gas. I think it's worth mentioning around oil and gas, the biggest impact that we've seen has been for reciprocating engines and related to drilling and well servicing. We had a pretty good healthy large backlog of those kind of products when we came into 2015. The result of that is our sales in the first half of the year, and we've talked about this before, were higher than what order rates were at the time because we were working off that backlog. That's largely behind us now. We're going to have a very challenged second half of 2015. So in 2015, we had a good first half for that kind of product, a much weaker second half. Essentially, what we have for that kind of product in 2016 is two weak halves, first half and second half. And that's quite a bit of a change year-over-year in Energy & Transportation. Okay. If I could get you to move on then to page seven. This is a little bit of a setup, after this spot I'm going to turn it over to Doug. And it's just a depiction of what's happened to our sales since the peak which was in 2012. It's been a pretty difficult three years. We think next year we'll kind of continue that. Overall we were about $66 billion in sales and revenues in 2012. Next year we're going to be down probably a little more than $20 billion from that level and that ends up being over 30%. Now what makes that decline tough and I think our performance more significant is that most of that decline, nearly two thirds of it, has been in Resource Industries, which is primarily mining and back in 2012 was without question our most profitable segment. Another 10% of that $20 billion or so decline is a result of currency impacts. Now I should also, it's not noted on the chart, but in Construction, we're also down. And fundamentally, one of the things that's changed is emerging – or not emerging, developing countries' construction, Asia, Latin America has also declined over that period. So that's a recap, and with that, I'd like to turn the floor over to Doug Oberhelman.
Douglas R. Oberhelman - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Okay. Thank you, Mike, and good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us this morning. We're taking a little different approach this quarter with the way in which we go through our business. Mike's summarized the quarter well I think and it's operationally reasonably solid, particularly when you factor back in that translation loss primarily in Brazil. There are not too many months you have a 22% devaluation in the currency anywhere in the world and that's certainly what happened in Brazil, in the third quarter. What I'd like to do is run down our key industries and kind of talk about where we see them today. And then a little bit of a reminder of while cyclical, why we like them so much over time and we'll just go through that. So I'm going to start on page eight and talk about mining a little bit. There's no question that the China-driven commodity supercycle drove a lot of things up in the world the last decade or so. And now we're living off the backlash of that. It's kind of amazing to me that even with that, the amount of mining activity going on, that is ore, and overburdened being moved with the exception of coal is still running at a pretty high level around the world. And that is one of the things that has kind of baffled us in terms of the replacement cycle. As our trucks and fleet have continued to operate without replacement and frankly with a very extended aftermarket and product support levels as miners are doing what they need to do to reserve cash, lower expenses, we haven't seen that dramatic of an extension in the life cycles ever. There's also a big push for productivity, which we like an awful lot, because it plays to our business model and as a result of that, of course, all that's piled on to the peak of 2012. And we're now at levels that go way back. The other interesting thing in terms of mining trucks at the peak in 2011 and 2012, we were producing 1,500 plus trucks a year at a run rate. Certainly in 2015, we'll be probably 90% – 10% of that 70% or 80% to 90% below that. And with no replacement – with the replacement cycle being extended, the parts demand being deferred a bit, we're seeing that really come through in 2015. I guess if there's a silver lining in the cloud, as long as ore and overburden is removed, the trucks are running, the fleet's moving, the excess capacity of mining is being used up at some point, that replacement cycle will come back to us. We won't need a boom and I don't expect a boom like we saw in the 2000s, but a replacement cycle would feel pretty good and we'll be ready for that when it happens. Long-term, I think all of you are aware the population growth in the planet, the demand for electricity, the demand for a lot of things including coal and, in fact, even the U.S. Government Commerce & Energy Department's forecast fairly healthy energy growth over the next 20 years, 30 years including all aspects of energy supply. Coal, nuclear not so much but certainly gas will be a big player in that as well. So we'd expect over time this industry to come back. And, of course, for surface mines, we provide – can provide up to 70% of the rolling stock that goes into a surface mine. And we've worked a lot on our underground mining that we didn't have prior to a few years ago. So we're very bullish about this over the long-term, and particularly as our business model matures here, I think we'll be set up. The problem, of course, is this big whiplash we've seen from the bust of the supercycle. Moving on into oil and gas and I would draw a distinction here as we have been doing lately between oil and gas. Oil certainly has taken the brunt of the downturn, the oil price, everybody does. We've seen CapEx dry up in that market. Our customers are adjusting. And we see idle rigs all over the place. Therein lies the turnaround at some point when supply drops and demand continues to grow. But in the case of oil that's where we see. And of course we've lived off a big backlog both in, primarily in recip a year ago. We worked through that. And as we go into 2016, that's what Mike talked about, feeling a full year impact of the oil drop and to some degree gas. Gas has held up a little bit better. Gas pipelines have been good. The expansion of compression has been good and, of course, a conversion of a lot of coal plants to natural gas has helped that demand. And while gas prices have come down quite a bit, they haven't tanked as we've seen with the coal or oil, for that matter. So this is another really super business for us long-term with our Solar Turbine business, which is a key player and provider in compression and elsewhere, our recip business, and over time as the world sorts out supply and demand, we'll enjoy that business again. It's a great aftermarket business as well, aftermarket opportunity. Moving into Construction and we've got this kind of by region here. As we go through, North America is okay. And I'm on page 11. I'm sorry. I'm on page 10. I beg your pardon. I missed Energy & Transportation. I'll go back there. Thank you, Mike. Page 10 and specifically talking about rail here. I just went through oil and gas. Rail has – rail primarily through Progress Rail or acquisition there in the late 2000s, and the acquisition of EMD have really put us on the map internationally in the rail business. And it's a business we like an awful lot. It has a lot of characteristics in our larger horsepower, bigger ironed products that we're used to dealing with. And it's turned out to be a – one with a lot of growth and opportunity as well. We've done an awful lot of restructuring, primarily in EMD the last few years and are now quite competitive with the others in that business, particularly internationally. Our 2015 locomotive sales are down. There's no question that we did not have a Tier 4 ready locomotive at the beginning of 2015. I would tell you that we planned it that way based on some early discussions with our customers in the rail business. A year ago it looked like demand was taking off. Our Tier 4 locomotive will be ready, the middle of next year or so. We have orders today. The preliminary results are very positive and, in fact, as we've seen the rail business soften here lately I'm kind of feeling better about our transition to Tier 4 where we'll end up. So quite happy with that long-term. It plays to all of our strengths here at Caterpillar with an awful lot of aftermarket opportunity that frankly the EMD predecessors really let atrophy. So we're spending a lot of time on that. And our Progress Rail and EMD people are getting after lots of opportunity internationally. And certainly with a very high quality Tier 4 locomotive that shares a lot of the DNA from our recip business, our normal Cat brand business will have a very competitive product there moving on into 2016. Now I'll go to page 11 and talk a little bit about construction regionally. North America, as we said, for next year flat to down a little bit. This year we've kind of seen it slow down a bit as the year wears on. Certainly residential is improving, their statistics and news the last few days have been even better. And non-res is building. What we need frankly is some heavy civil and highway. I am optimistic that we'll get some kind of a highway bill here between now and the end of the year. I'm optimistic it will be a multiyear and we'll jump start this a little bit. Certainly from a low base anything will feel good. We've seen a number of states around the country enact initiatives, whether it's bonds or tax increases to pay for infrastructure. That will get going this winter and I would think by spring, we can see a little uptick in that piece of it, but again we're calling kind of flat to down a little in our Construction business for 2016. Latin America led by Brazil is weak. I was just in Brazil two weeks ago. It's a profound slowdown there. I wouldn't expect to see much of an upturn in – until 2016, but what the Brazilians are talking about, what they typically have done in the past to stimulate their economy has been around infrastructure. So if they get that together, we can see that coming out sometime in the next year as well. Europe, Africa, Middle East really a split set of stories. Europe is actually kind of stable and positive. You've seen that in some of our retail numbers. We just had a big – we had several of our officers in Europe with a big distributor meeting and the news is not – is no longer totally doom and gloom but there's some stories. Our numbers don't reflect all of that yet. But I'd say – and some of you have heard me say this, I think that Western Europe anyway including Scandinavia and Southern Europe is probably where the United States was two to three years ago, particularly with the QE now I think finally starting to kick in there. Middle East is all about the oil price and political unrest and we've seen that. Asia Pacific is backed up for China. And China has really, is working to transform their economy. Long-term it's going to be great. It will be the largest construction equipment market in the world. I like our market position there. I like our business model there. It's coming our way but they're finding out the impact of cycles and as we see that as well. So long-term, again, population growth. Lots of infrastructure needs hindered to some degree by a lot of debt load. But over time that infrastructure will be demanded and needed and will be right in the middle of that as it goes. Moving to number 12, page 12, I'd like to talk now a little bit about operational progress. Even in this tough business climate, I'm very happy to report to you and this is not news for most of you, but we've had a market position increase every year since 2010 and our market position is up significantly around the world in that period of time. It's due to several things. I think, one, the quality of our product has never been better by our metrics around defects per unit. Our dealers are performing well. We lost only one dealer in the great recession and they're very strong today as strong as they've ever been. And the quality of our – or the design of our produc in the Tier 4 offerings we're putting out there are strong. So even with overcapacity in the industry and even with a very weak set of currencies for many of our competitors, even in the last year our market share is up slightly around the world. And I think that says a lot about what we can do, should be doing in the downturn as we're in and then what we can do when things recover. We're managing costs I think pretty well. We've talked to you all for years about increment and decrement profit margins. When we grow from $32 billion in 2009 to $66 billion in 2012, we were right in there with our incremental margins of 25% plus. As we've seen the top line come down from $66 billion to $48 billion now this year, we've been in that decremental margin area of 25% to 30%. We announced a major restructuring obviously a month ago as we anticipated 2016 to get out in front of that. And I would say going into 2016, we feel good about continuing on our decremental margin program, if sales are down, which they appear to be and will be 2016. I talked about product quality. Our balance sheet, I can't say enough about. We entered the recession or rather we entered 2009 with a debt-to-cap ratio of almost 60% and kind of normal operating cash on the balance sheet. Today, even after a fairly significant stock buyback the last couple of years, a dividend increase of 83% during this period of time, our balance sheet is strong at 37.5% debt-to-cap with about double the amount of cash in our balance sheet of $6 billion which sets us up for, I think, just about anything that comes at us cycle-wise or opportunity-wise in the future. Three of our four best years in history have been the last few years in cash flow. I mentioned the dividend, the stock buyback. And I want to emphasize that the dividend is a priority use of cash. It's particularly the maintenance thereof. We did not reduce the dividend in the 2008, 2009 financial crisis. We paid a dividend every year for over 20 years and maintaining that is a key use of our cash and a priority for our company. Just a comment on Cat Financial and our captive finance business. It's a great business model. It's been proven through several ups and downs. Key metrics are in line with long-term averages despite weakness in a few very critical markets. And it's healthy, well managed and risk is very much under control. Moving to page 14. We'll continue on this path of action items given the industry weakness. We, in fact, have more capacity than we need today but that said, the CapEx we've invested the last few years means our plants are modern, our machines and tooling are up-to-date. Our Lean manufacturing is progressing very well inside our plants. And we're positioned to handle a lot more volume when recovery comes. CapEx this year and next year will be less than half of what it was in 2012. We're kind of in a maintenance capital mode and I would expect that to continue for a while as even when volumes pickup. We've implemented enough substantial restructuring up until now and I think we reported the last few quarters that we've reduced about 10% of our production square footage already through consolidations and closing. And as painful as it is, our workforce has declined more than 35,000 in the last three years. These have generated substantial cost reduction for us. Moving on to page 15. We talked – I just mentioned this September 24 announcement. Very painful to our people across the world but necessary. We anticipate between now and 2018 about $1.5 billion of annual cost reduction. We will commit to you and I commit to you today, as we did on September 24, that in 2016, we will see $750 million of cost reduction and we'll report on that specifically every quarter against that goal. We plan on reducing about 4,000 to 5,000 of our non-production workforce before the end of 2016. A piece of that this year, our team moved quickly once we decided to – we decided that 2015 was not shaping up for a recovery and 2016 would be down. We've never done it this way before. Our idea was to come out with a voluntary early retirement program, which was very successful, follow it with a reduction in workforce and everybody ready to go with full year cost reductions January 1, 2016 and we're right on plan to make that happen. All in all we should be about another 10,000 reduction by the end of 2018. With about another 20 facilities identified. And we've already announced a few of those. We'll have likely a few more by the end of the year. And as soon as we have a final determination on those we'll be announcing them and you can expect to see them as we get to them. Now page 16 is an important one and this is really a summary of our Lean manufacturing and what I'm calling Leaning of Everything Journey. And I'd like to start in the lower right-hand corner with built-in quality defects per machine. And this goes back to 2010. We've introduced during this period, particularly in 2013 and 2014 and now 2015, we'll have introduced 300 new models with Tier 4 interim and Tier 4 final product improvements. And you will notice that our quality in terms of defects per machine has improved significantly. Now you can also see on there that it's kind of plateaued the last year. Well that's a plateau that far exceeds the targets we put in place back in 2010. And I would submit these are some of the best in industry quality numbers we've seen. This is evidence in my opinion and all of us around the benefits of implementing Lean manufacturing in our plant. This is one of them. And quality is right up at the front. And you can see we've had good luck with that. I'd like to move up to cost. And in terms of gross margin as a percent of sales and these are right off the P&L, you'll see it. And while you might think that a six-tenths improvement in gross margin isn't all that great, I'd like to point out a couple things. This is a period of time when the mix has shift significantly away from mining to smaller products. It's also a period where we had quite a bit of higher depreciation expense built in. So I'm quite happy that we are seeing the cost of goods sold as a result of Lean make its way through here in terms of progress. And we see our mix return to some mining equipment later on. We have some very good opportunities for continued improvement. I'd like to move over to safety, lower left. And this is one that for lots of reasons we're very happy with but it's indicative again of the Lean manufacturing process and including people on the floor that do the work in the process of continuous improvement. We started this way back in the early 2000s. We were one of the industrial companies with the highest recordable injury frequency. We're now at this level we think one of the best. Why is this important? And you may not as investor appreciate this in terms of dollars and cents but a safe, efficient, high quality factory means a profitable place and we see that in the cost reduction, and then, of course, our incremental and decremental pull-throughs. Lastly, one area that's continuing to frustrate me and frustrate us greatly is inventory. And I'll be just a bit defensive here but not too much. We've seen our top line decrease since 2012 by $20 billion, as Mike mentioned. Our inventory is also down about $4.5 billion but our turns are flat. It's very difficult to improve efficiencies in plants when so many plants run on interim schedules. But we've managed to maintain our inventory turnover in that period of time. I have high expectations that we'll move from what today is about a 2.5 inventory turnover rate, up smartly and our goal is 3.5 by 2018. And I think we've talked to most of you in the past about that, when we can get some consistent schedules. And I don't want – again, I don't want to sound overly defensive on that, because I think we've done pretty well kind of catching the knife on the way down to reduce our inventories by $4.5 billion, but we've got a lot of opportunities still to come here that's upside in terms of inventory conversion and cash and efficiency of asset turnover. So this to me is a pretty good status of our Lean journey. We'll continue to talk to you about this in more detail as we go forward. Finally, page 17. And then I'll get to Q&A but two big initiatives we're working on besides Lean are dealer initiative that we call across the table to drive better market performance across our businesses that – where we distribute product through dealers. I can tell you we have about 11 or 12 different initiatives. Everything from e-business to parts warehouse efficiencies to all kinds of things that we're very much on plan. 2016 will be our third year, really our third year of implementation. And we sure like what we see. The dealers are pretty enthusiastic about it as well. And I think to end on this on the most exciting piece is really around technology and data analytics. The Caterpillar of the next few years will be quite different than the Caterpillar of the last few years. We have a vision here that every one of our 3 million machines and engines and many of our competitive machines and engines owned by our customers are connected, have sensors feeding to us. Their owners, our dealer, all kinds of data that then we can predict failures. We can predict hours of use. We can predict maintenance levels, all kinds of things that will really improve our aftermarket and our customer satisfaction. We've invested in a joint venture called Uptake with a partner that we really like. That business started around our locomotive business. That's being taken to market, beginning to be taken to market right now. I would expect to see the same around our construction equipment in the next year or two. We also have a very important supplier with Trimble who supplies the hardware on our machines that connects us to them. So this is a very exciting area. I won't dwell on it too much although I could. It's one of the most exciting things I've seen in many years around here to change our world going forward and really use technology of the 21st century for our customers for them to make more money and obviously us as well. So with that, I'm going to conclude, Michael, and you can conduct Q&A.
Michael Lynn DeWalt - Vice President, Finance Services Division:
Okay. So with that, we're ready for Q&A.
Operator:
Thank you. The first question is coming from Andrew Casey. Please announce your affiliation and pose your question.
Andrew M. Casey - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
Wells Fargo Securities. Good morning and thanks for the new presentation format. First, I know you're forecasting mining to be down again in 2016, but I'm going to take the bait on the comment at the bottom of slide eight that was related to improved resource machine utilization in the last three months. And I know – I think you have an internal database, but it may not stretch back decades. I'm wondering do you have a sense of the typical lag between what you are seeing in the utilization rate and when parts may start to show up?
Michael Lynn DeWalt - Vice President, Finance Services Division:
Good question, Andy. And honestly I don't know the answer to that. To your point, we haven't been gathering that kind of data that long over cycles before. And this has been a – mining has really been a tough industry over – well, since mid-2012 actually when all the order levels started to decline. And there's not been much in the way of good news. I mean we're tracking truck utilization and we're tracking parked fleet. We really haven't seen much change in parked fleet. It's leveled out. Not really got better or worse. And we started seeing this trend a couple of months ago. And we've kind of watched it each month directionally. And it seems like there is – this is hours in a day worked by a machine. And it's gone up each month for the last three months. Hopefully that's the beginning of a trend but to your earlier point, we don't have a long history of tracking this. So I would encourage you not to read too much into that.
Douglas R. Oberhelman - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Yeah, I want to just add here that I'm – we're watching everything all this data very closely. I'm not reading much into that. The first signal I think we'll see and feel is when we see high hour trucks from our mining customers come in for rebuild at our dealers. We have not seen that yet. And that will be the first signal that when that happens that the replacement cycle, although that won't be new trucks but the replacement cycle for parts and aftermarket, and then the rebuild of those trucks begins. And that's really, I think, the most concrete signal we'd see that we'd be past the bottom. And right now we haven't seen that but believe me we're watching all of these and are very close contact with our mining dealers that interface with our mining customers.
Andrew M. Casey - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
Okay. Thanks and I guess...
Douglas R. Oberhelman - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Thanks. Can we take our next question, please?
Operator:
The next question is coming from Ted Grace. Please announce your affiliation then pose your question.
Ted Grace - Susquehanna Financial Group LLLP:
Susquehanna. Thank you. Good morning, guys.
Michael Lynn DeWalt - Vice President, Finance Services Division:
Good morning.
Ted Grace - Susquehanna Financial Group LLLP:
Mike, I was hoping to maybe take a step back from Andy's question and talk about kind of the 2016 revenue expectations more broadly. I'm wondering if you could maybe book end the 5% guidance, what would be kind of the optimistic scenario. What would be the more cautious scenario? And then I was just wondering if we could step through maybe some of the segments and understand...
Michael Lynn DeWalt - Vice President, Finance Services Division:
Sure.
Ted Grace - Susquehanna Financial Group LLLP:
...within Construction what you expect in the developed markets versus developing?
Michael Lynn DeWalt - Vice President, Finance Services Division:
Yeah, I'll do as much of that as I can. First off I would say when we say about 5%, I mean that's kind of our base case. It presumes a very modest improvement in kind of global growth. Nothing that would be significant enough to really drive an upturn. So I would say our view is that's pretty balanced. I think if we got some recovery in China or better U.S. growth or maybe more energy demand that could be – those could be positives. Some kind of a recession or a mistake by the Fed or the ECB that kind of drove down the economy I guess could be on the downside. We're also not expecting much in the way of commodity prices. Kind of by and large – I'm not saying exactly where we are today, but by and large around the levels that we're at today on commodities is pretty much what we're thinking around next year. And that's the same for currencies. We're not expecting the dollar to get materially stronger or weaker. So I think our view right now is it's pretty balanced. I think in construction, we have it – let's just say probably reasonably flat to slightly down in most places in the world. Brazil is very weak. China is very weak, but they were in 2015 as well. In fact, the business is down so far in those two countries in particular that just the size and scope for it to have much significance in terms of a dollar decline next year is a bit diminished. And I think – so I think Construction, not a lot of change from kind of where we've been this year. I think in terms of mining it's just a really tough environment out there, and I think our forecast is reflective of what mining companies are saying about cutting CapEx a bit further. That said, the new equipment sales are so low right now, if it declined another – if new equipment sales declined another 5% or 10% the dollar amount of that is – I probably wouldn't use the word de minimis, but it's not very much because it's down so far. And I think that's an industry that – it doesn't tend to move in small increments. So the upside to that is if it turned around and we started to see some of the things that Doug talked about, maybe more rebuilds or some uplift in commodity prices that could be a help. But for now we're certainly not forecasting any of that. For Energy & Transportation, really the big down next year is in a lot of ways absence of a good first half of 2015 in really the recip side of oil and gas or well servicing and drilling. We have a pretty low year this year already for rail after the 2014 peak and the – not having a Tier 4 locomotive for this year. We'll have one next year. So I wouldn't see massive deterioration in other areas outside of that.
Ted Grace - Susquehanna Financial Group LLLP:
Just as it relates to the Middle East with lower oil prices, some other machinery companies have talked about challenges there. Should we expect that? Do you think that is a risk to that part of the world? And I will jump back in queue after that.
Donald James Umpleby - Group President-Energy & Transportation Group:
Yeah, yeah, hi. This is Jim Umpleby. We really don't see that as a major risk, as Mike mentioned earlier, the major declines we've seen have been in well servicing and drilling. That's primarily a North American story. So I don't see a major risk there.
Michael Lynn DeWalt - Vice President, Finance Services Division:
Yeah.
Ted Grace - Susquehanna Financial Group LLLP:
And in Construction?
Michael Lynn DeWalt - Vice President, Finance Services Division:
I think kind of the same thing. Probably some downside risk, particularly in places like Saudi Arabia where construction is – they tend to have invested and it has held up. I'm going to sort of pre-ask, or answer another question, or ask Jim to answer it. I know via e-mail we've gotten several questions on Solar. I think there's a general concern that investors have about our Turbine business. It's an excellent business. It's done very well and this morning we talked about it being down next year as a part of Energy & Transportation but less than 10%. So I think I'll pitch that back to Jim to maybe add a little more color on.
Donald James Umpleby - Group President-Energy & Transportation Group:
Sure, Mike. As we've said, Energy & Transportation is expected to be down between 5% and 10% in 2016 and we've said that the primary driver of that decline is oil and gas. Again as we've said, the primary driver there is reduced sales into drilling and well servicing. Our Solar business is made up of three major categories, oil and gas, power generation and customer services. That oil and gas business can really be separated between oil production, which is primarily generator set that we sell offshore and that business is certainly down. Projects have been delayed and we've seen that translate into lower sales. On the other hand our gas compression business at Solar is doing quite well. A lot of that is driven by the very robust activity in large interstate pipelines being built primarily in North America and that's really being fed by a combination of fuel switching to natural gas. And also the fact that the new LNG export facilities have to be fed. So again that business is quite strong. The customer service is part of the business as you all know I think an important part of Solar's business. While oil companies are starting to squeeze our maintenance budgets, turbines are not being taken out of operation. They're still operating. That still requires parts and overhaul and field service. So that business is expected to hold up fairly well as is our power generation business.
Ted Grace - Susquehanna Financial Group LLLP:
Super helpful, guys. Good luck this quarter.
Douglas R. Oberhelman - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Okay. Thanks. Can we take our next question, please?
Operator:
The next question is coming from Jamie Cook. Please announce your affiliation then pose your question.
Jamie L. Cook - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker):
Hi. Thanks for the question. I guess just sorry, back on E&T. You talked about your sales decline. I guess when I looked at the profitability of the quarter within E&T, I was surprised your margins held up as well because I think there is a broader concern that that business is overearning with where oil and gas was. So, I guess can you, Jim, help us think about how we think about the profitability in 2006 (sic) [2016] (50:50)? Because I think there is a broader concern out there that what we saw in Resource margins and where it is today that that same thing could happen in E&T? Thanks.
Michael Lynn DeWalt - Vice President, Finance Services Division:
Yeah, I'm going to start out with that, Jamie. First off in the quarter, the big negative for E&T was definitely volume in mix – or volume on sales. But we also had a fair amount of cost reduction, particularly in period costs. I think if we look at next year in terms of at least operating margin rates and I think this will go kind of to the heart of one of the points that Doug made earlier and that is the restructuring that we're doing. I mean, we're looking at another $750 million of cost reduction next year and that will be spread across all of our segments. And I think should be certainly a help for margins that's reasonably significant. I think Energy & Transportation is a pretty profitable business in most all of the underlying sectors, not just oil and gas. Oil and gas is definitely a good business. And you'll see – in our third quarter of this year's results, you're already seeing the major drop now in the third quarter from the recip, well servicing and drilling reductions. Those are in the third quarter numbers already. There's nothing really weird or unusual that's kind of propping up the third quarter that I know of.
Jamie L. Cook - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker):
So is it, I mean margins in the low double-digit range next year? Is that unreasonable given what you said?
Michael Lynn DeWalt - Vice President, Finance Services Division:
We'll talk more about profit, I think, maybe when we get to the end of the year. We still have a lot – a little bit of work to do on our sort of profit planning by segment and playing through all of these restructuring actions by segment. So I'll defer that question maybe until January when we're ready to talk a little more about profit next year.
Jamie L. Cook - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker):
All right. Thank you. I'll get back in queue.
Michael Lynn DeWalt - Vice President, Finance Services Division:
All right.
Douglas R. Oberhelman - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Next question, please?
Operator:
The next question is coming from Jerry Revich. Please announce your affiliation then pose your question.
Jerry David Revich - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Good morning. It's Goldman Sachs.
Douglas R. Oberhelman - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Good morning, Jerry.
Jerry David Revich - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Mike, Jim, just to dig in on the Solar discussion, you have done really well in North America on the pipeline side. Can you just talk about, based on the inquiries that you have, how the regional mix of the business could evolve over the next couple of years? So we have been through a pretty good build out in the U.S. And I know you have some visibility on larger projects in other regions, so maybe you could step us through.
Donald James Umpleby - Group President-Energy & Transportation Group:
Yeah, this is Jim, again. Certainly, Solar's business is quite diverse geographically. We're active in all parts of the world. If you look at the specific elements of their business, oil production is an area which has been very dispersed for Solar. Most of that business is outside the U.S. On the gas compression side, again, right now, most of that activity is in North America, Canada, the U.S. and Mexico. There is some gas compression activity in other parts of the world, but the big meaningful projects are, in fact, in North America. And as we look at our backlog and quotation activity, it does support our outlook for 2016. So, again, that takes into account what's happening geographically in all different parts of the world.
Jerry David Revich - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Okay. Thank you. And then separate question just on the restructuring program, I'm wondering if you can talk about how the manufacturing footprint by region will look once you are through it in whatever broad strokes you are comfortable addressing that. And, Doug, you mentioned a focus on improving inventory turns. Can you just talk about whether the restructuring actions (54:41) facilities helps you move in that direction and if you can lay out any targets for us? Thank you.
Douglas R. Oberhelman - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Yeah, I don't want to comment about locations and specifics yet. As I said in my review, it's a sensitive issue, obviously internally with our people. And we really want to think through those. I would think that materially the footprint geographically would not change. There may be a little shuffling in terms of what we make versus what we outsource, but you've got to remember that most all of our construction equipment business is, the higher volume machines are made in region. So we try to run the currency zones of yen, the currency zone of the dollar and the currency zone of the euro. And we've had that philosophy for quite some time, so we offset cost with sales. To the extent that that will aid inventory turnover, maybe a bit, but the target that I will put out there and we've had is that 3.5 inventory turnover out there in 2017 or 2018. And we, if anything, want to expedite that move it forward, and I have teams in place to move that on. But it's difficult when we have plants that are closed weeks at a time because of lack of demand.
Jerry David Revich - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Thank you.
Douglas R. Oberhelman - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Next question, please.
Operator:
The next question is coming from Ann Duignan. Please announce your affiliation then pose your question.
Ann P. Duignan - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Yeah, good morning. JPMorgan. My question is more around clarification. You highlighted the fact that you can achieve $750 million in cost reductions going into 2016. And then you talk a little bit about mix being a negative of $500 million going into next year. Just conceptually, you are not suggesting that the restructuring savings can more than offset the decline in revenue and the decremental profits, are you?
Michael Lynn DeWalt - Vice President, Finance Services Division:
Well, what we're suggesting is not the impact of volume. I mean, $2.5 billion will have a variable margin decline, or 5%, will have a decline in margin as a result of volume. What we're saying is what's coming out is going to be a little richer margin mix than kind of normal. And that's that $250 million headwind. That's kind of the difference between average margin of what's coming out and what we think is going to come out. We will have cost reduction next year. Just from – the restructuring is not the only thing we're working on. But we do expect substantial, as Doug said, $750 million of reduction just from this restructuring action. But volume will definitely be a negative.
Ann P. Duignan - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
So net-net, that steps down in profitability.
Michael Lynn DeWalt - Vice President, Finance Services Division:
Yeah, I don't think, again, we're not really talking profit on this call. But I think it would be a pretty safe bet on a 5% decline in sales with negative mix that that puts a lot of downward pressure on profit. But our $750 million of cost reduction and the other cost actions that we're working on that I would call kind of more normal, they push it in the other direction. But I think net-net, it'll still be down.
Douglas R. Oberhelman - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
And I'd still aim you, Ann, at the increment/decrement goals that we have. So if we have a step down in sales obviously our normal decrement down would apply. And that's our goal for 2016. And then we have mix and cost reduction, the rest of it, as Mike has talked about. But I don't want to lose sight of that, because that's our internal planning as well.
Ann P. Duignan - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Okay. And then just on those lines, what are you baking in for pricing for next year?
Michael Lynn DeWalt - Vice President, Finance Services Division:
Yeah, again, Ann, we're not – I'll make a comment without being too specific. Again, we're not done with the financial plan completely yet. But I think given what's happened with the strength of the dollar, you saw in this quarter we had a little bit of negative price, about 0.5% for the company. And that's gotten a little worse as the years gone on, and I think partly what we're seeing is some of the impact of the stronger dollar on the places where it's a little harder to measure, but it provides competitive pressure. I don't see that easing, so I would not be overly optimistic about price realization next year. I also want to clarify something I said a minute ago that was wrong. You said $500 million on mix impact. That's right. I said $250 million back and I was just thinking the difference between the $750 million of restructuring and the $500 million of mix is. That piece of it is still a net negative – or net positive. Sorry, just wanted to clarify. I agree with your comment. We do think mix is going be negative, around $500 million.
Ann P. Duignan - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Okay. Great. Thanks for the clarification. I kind of figured that, but thank you.
Michael Lynn DeWalt - Vice President, Finance Services Division:
All right. We're slightly over on time. Our presentation ran a little longer than our historical preamble has been, but I think it was good to clarify things. So with that, we will wrap up. Thank you very much.
Operator:
Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. This does conclude today's conference call. You may disconnect your phone lines at this time, and have a wonderful day. Thank you for your participation.
Executives:
Michael Lynn DeWalt - Vice President, Finance Services Division Douglas R. Oberhelman - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer Bradley M. Halverson - Chief Financial Officer & Group President
Analysts:
Jamie L. Cook - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker) Joel G. Tiss - BMO Capital Markets (United States) Joe J. O'Dea - Vertical Research Partners LLC Jerry D. Revich - Goldman Sachs & Co. David Michael Raso - Evercore ISI Institutional Equities Ted Grace - Susquehanna Financial Group LLLP Henry George Kirn - SG Americas Securities LLC Ann P. Duignan - JPMorgan Securities LLC Vishal B. Shah - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.
Operator:
Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. And welcome to the Caterpillar Second Quarter 2015 Results Conference Call. At this time, all participants have been placed on a listen-only mode. The floor will be open for your questions and comments following the presentation. It is now my pleasure to turn the floor over to your host, Mike DeWalt. Sir, the floor is yours.
Michael Lynn DeWalt - Vice President, Finance Services Division:
Thank you, Anthony. And good morning, everyone, and welcome to our second quarter earnings call. I'm Mike DeWalt, Caterpillar's Vice President of Financial Services. On the call today I'm pleased to have our Chairman and CEO Doug Oberhelman and Group President and CFO Brad Halverson. Now this call is copyrighted by Caterpillar, Inc. Any use, recording, or transmission of any portion of the call without the expressed written consent of Caterpillar is strictly prohibited. If you'd like a copy of today's call transcript, we'll be posting it in the investor section of our caterpillar.com website. And it will be in the section labeled Results Webcast. This morning we'll be discussing forward-looking information, and that involves risks, uncertainties and assumptions that could cause our actual results to differ materially from the forward-looking information. A discussion of some of those factors that either individually or in the aggregate could make actual results differ materially from our projections, that can be found in our cautionary statements under Item 1A, that's Risk Factors of our Form 10-K filed with the SEC in February of this year, and also in the forward-looking statements language in today's release. In addition, there's a reconciliation of non-GAAP measures that can be found in our financial release today, and that's also been posted at our caterpillar.com website. Okay. Let's get started. This morning we'll be reviewing our results for the second quarter and our outlook for 2015. For the quarter, sales and revenues were $12.3 billion and profit per share was $1.16, and that was $1.27 excluding restructuring costs. Both of those numbers were about as about what we expected. No big surprises. In fact, from a macro standpoint, much of what we were expecting when 2015 started seems to be playing out. We expected that mining would continue to be very weak, and it certainly has. We were concerned about weakening sales of construction equipment in China and Brazil, and both are down substantially from last year. With the sharp drop in oil prices from last fall, we expected we'd have sales headwinds in our energy and transportation segment and in construction equipment sales in the parts of the world where oil production was important, and that's happening. Now on the plus side, we also expected that our people would continue to execute on the things that we can control. And we've done that with decremental margins better than our target. Machinery, Energy & Transportation operating cash flow of $1.6 billion in the second quarter, and a balance sheet that remains healthy with a debt-to-cap ratio near 35%. So with that introduction behind us, let's get into a little more detail on the quarter. Again, sales and revenues were 13% lower than last year. The decline was widespread with lower sales in every geographic region of the world, and down versus last year in each of our business segments. We'll start with Construction Industries, which was down 18% and down in all regions. Latin America was the most significant decline, down 47%, and that was mostly a result of weak demand in general, and in particular Brazil, and also absent of a large order that we had from the Brazilian government from last year. Asia-Pacific region was down 30%, with much of that decline in China and Japan. In China the construction industry continued to weaken and in Japan the main issue was currency exchange as the yen weakened versus the dollar and our sales that are denominated in yen there are translating into fewer dollars. In the Europe, Africa, Middle East region, Construction Industry sales were down 18%, and much of that was from currency translation as local currencies, particularly the euro, were weaker than the dollar compared with the second quarter of last year. In addition, there was some unfavorable dealer inventory change in the Europe, Africa, Middle East region. Now North America was off 3% and we have seen some strength in residential and nonresidential construction, but that's been offset or slightly more than offset by a drop in sales to customers serving oil and gas. In Resource Industries, which is mostly mining, sales were down 11% versus the second quarter of 2014 and mining sales continue to weaken for both new equipment and to a lesser degree for aftermarket parts. Sales related to quarry and aggregates did improve, but it wasn't enough to offset the decline in mining. In Resource Industries sales were down in all regions. Suffice to say that mining remains weak around the world and we haven't yet seen signs of a recovery. If you would like a little more regional flavor, there is more in the Resource Industries section in this morning's financial release. For Energy & Transportation, sales were down 12%. And while down in all regions, I think probably the most useful way to cover energy and transportation is by major industry, and that's oil and gas, transportation, power gen and industrial sales. In short, sales in each of these industries was down and in order of magnitude, the most significant decline was for transportation and that was mostly lower locomotive sales in North America. Locomotive sales last year in 2014 were pretty good. In 2015, regulations for emissions changed in the United States, and Tier 4 started. And our tier locomotive isn't expected to be available until later in 2016, so sales this year are down. Now oil and gas related sales were also lower, and that's probably not surprising to you, given the decline in oil prices over the past year and softening investment by oil producers. Sales of industrial engines also declined, and just for your reference, we sell these industrial engines to ag customers, electric power packagers, construction and material handling customers, and for a wide variety of other application. And in general, demand was down a bit and currency also had an unfavorable impact, particularly in Europe. Power generation sales were also down, and most of that was currency translation related. Again in Europe in particular, where our euro-based sales translated into fewer dollars. Okay, that's a summary of sales and revenues. Again all-in-all about as we expected for the quarter and down about 13% from last year. Profit in the quarter was $1.16. We did have $0.11 a share or $89 million of restructuring costs and without restructuring, profit was $1.27. Now profit is down from a year ago, while we were $1.57 all in, and $1.69 last year in the second quarter excluding restructuring. Operating profit declined from $1.475 billion in the second quarter last year to $1.13 billion this year. Now, that's a drop of $345 million. More than all that decline, $483 million in total, was a result of lower sales volume. In addition, Financial Products was down $49 million. R&D costs were a little bit higher than the second quarter of last year as well. Now on the favorable side for operating profit, price realization was a positive. It was $84 million, certainly in the right direction, but less than 1% of sales. Manufacturing costs were slightly favorable and would have been more so if not for a headwind from inventory absorption, and that was a result of an increase in our inventory over the course of the second quarter of 2014, and a decline in inventory in the second quarter of 2015. Let's talk about currency for a moment. While the impact on sales was negative, over $400 million, it was actually positive to operating profit about $80 million, and that's because we have a significant cost base outside the US and a stronger US dollar causes those costs to translate into fewer dollars. And that more than offset the negative impact on sales. Now there are other currency impacts in our P&L as well, below operating profit. And other income and expense, again below operating profit, quarter-over-quarter was unfavorable $78 million. And most of that was related to currency translation on our balance sheet position and hedging. So in summary on balance, relative to profit currency didn't have much of an impact second quarter to second quarter. Okay. That's profit versus last year and the major story is sales volume. So let's turn to the outlook and that will be actually pretty easy to cover because little has actually changed. Back in January with our original outlook, we expected sales and revenues of about $50 billion. And at the end of the first quarter, we held that. This morning we lowered about $1 billion to $49 billion. The most important point in that is, for the most part, the change is currency related. The dollar strengthened some in the first quarter and strengthened a bit more in the second quarter particularly against the yen, and it's moved enough versus our original outlook that we needed to reflect it in today's updated outlook for the year. Now sitting here about halfway through the year, except for currency impacts, the overall sales and revenues outlook is still pretty close to what we expected when we started the year. While we would have liked to have been surprised to the upside, our sales outlook of six months ago is proving to be pretty accurate so far, particularly given the degree of uncertainty in the world and the things that we expected would happen in 2015, including
Operator:
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, the floor is now open for questions. Our first question is coming from Jamie Cook. Please announce your affiliation and pose your question.
Jamie L. Cook - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker):
Hi. Good morning. Thanks for the time on the questions. I guess a couple questions. Just more broadly, can you guys talk about I guess, Mike, when you're thinking about the second half of the year, can you talk about oil and gas, the decline that we saw in the second quarter relative to what you expect in the second half? And then what is implied in your profitability in the second half of the year with regard to oil and gas? I feel like before you said it would be more in the reciprocating engine side and you still expected Solar and the Marine business to be up. Has that mix changed at all?
Michael Lynn DeWalt - Vice President, Finance Services Division:
Yeah, I would say in general what we said before about the resi business for drilling and well servicing, that's where the brunt of the decline is going to be felt. And we had a pretty sizable backlog of that coming into the year, and that's actually helped sales in the first half. So we're going to see more of the decline in that reset business in the second half. And that goes back to my comment on sales mix in the second half. So that will likely be a bit more negative.
Jamie L. Cook - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker):
And then, I'm sorry, your visibility specifically on Solar right now, and I'm assuming Solar is still good relative?
Michael Lynn DeWalt - Vice President, Finance Services Division:
Yeah, I'd say everything that we've said about Solar this year and holding up and a backlog is still the case. I'm going to try not to get too far ahead of ourselves into a discussion about 2016. We don't have an outlook in front of us for 2016. And that's not trying to avoid that question, it's just we commonly do that with our October third quarter release, kind of give a preview of what we think for the next year. That said, if you do look at backlogs and what's happened, you don't see Solar falling apart. It's marching along reasonably well so far this year. I wouldn't say there's anything that I've seen that I would consider to be alarming, if that helps.
Jamie L. Cook - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker):
Okay. And then I guess just, can I ask a second question? Just, I guess broadly, Doug, on mining we've seen a lot of the mining data points continue to deteriorate, what you're hearing from your customers as well as your competition. I guess, Doug, what would you need to see to change your longer-term view on mining and to take sort of a more aggressive restructuring within Caterpillar? And as we think about, I know you're spending this year for the long-term. Do you feel like the brunt of the spend in mining in terms of new products and R&D, does that go away in 2015 so 2016 has less of a headwind? Thanks. And I'll get back in queue.
Douglas R. Oberhelman - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Around mining, most of the restructuring we have taken to date has been aimed at mining. A number of facilities have been downsized, closed and have been announced to do so this year and next year. We'll continually view that. What we're hearing from customers of course and seeing from customers is an ongoing fairly high production rate. Now I don't know how long that will hold up, but so far we haven't seen a big drop in production. We've certainly seen no expansion and won't for the foreseeable future. But we have not seen any, or I guess, we have seen our trucks and ancillary equipment especially being used longer and longer and longer. Service intervals are being extended. As long as we see that, we know there is a replacement cycle coming at some point. It's just extended. In terms of where do we see this long-term, I think a lot of that's going to depend on what we see for long-term growth rate and is the world going to grow at 2% for the next 10 years or is it going to grow at 3% or something else. And I think we'll continue to monitor that. We do that right now and particularly as we go into 2016, we'll take a look at that towards the end of the year. But that would be the driver of how fast and how much mining is going to require over the next decade or so and then thus the supply of equipment to them.
Michael Lynn DeWalt - Vice President, Finance Services Division:
Okay, next question please.
Operator:
Our next question's from Joel Tiss. Please announce your affiliation and pose your question.
Joel G. Tiss - BMO Capital Markets (United States):
Sorry, I was on mute. Bank of Montreal. How's it going, guys?
Michael Lynn DeWalt - Vice President, Finance Services Division:
Good, Joel. What's up?
Joel G. Tiss - BMO Capital Markets (United States):
I was just in Asia and there's this whole, I guess it's a little old, but I'm old, too. But I'm a little behind the curve probably, but they're talking about expanding, like giving countries money to help expand their infrastructure, and dragging a lot of the Chinese overcapacity and the Chinese suppliers with them. And so not stopping at the Chinese border, going all the way, Africa, Eastern Europe, former Soviet republics. So as long as Doug is here, I just wondered if you could talk a little bit about, does China bring you guys along with them because you are a local Chinese supplier as they go to these different regions? Or are you already there and can effectively compete with them? Like how does this play out over the next decade?
Douglas R. Oberhelman - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Hi, Joel. I think you're referring primarily to the Asian Infrastructure Bank, AIIB, which was announced a year or so ago. It's been funded now and run by the Chinese. It's a somewhat similar bank to the several regional banks that are around, whether it's Latin America or Asia, or to some degree World Bank. They are focusing certainly around Asian infrastructure. We are there. Our business model works very well. I think a significant piece of this is aimed at the Silk Road, the new Silk, one belt, one road project. It's probably a 50-year project going forward. My expectation would be that we're a local Chinese company. Our dealers service products throughout that region and when it comes down to it and they build infrastructure, complete those kinds of things funded by that AIIB that the best supplier's going to win the construction equipment just like anything else. Now will there be bias in another direction? Probably, as we see today that we do pretty well in China. So my expectation is that that's China trying to take its investments even more broadly than they have been doing. We've done pretty well with that around the world so far, and that would be my expectation going forward. Having said that, a bit political. It would be nice to see the United States involved with that. We've not been. A lot of the European countries have joined in, and most Asians have joined in to aim at areas that need a lot of development. And that I hope is in our future. But again, a little bit off the subject but is I think pertinent to the answer.
Michael Lynn DeWalt - Vice President, Finance Services Division:
Thanks, Joel.
Joel G. Tiss - BMO Capital Markets (United States):
I can't do a quick follow up? Okay. Fine. Thank you.
Michael Lynn DeWalt - Vice President, Finance Services Division:
Yeah, go ahead.
Joel G. Tiss - BMO Capital Markets (United States):
I just wondered if, Mike, this isn't giving away 2016 guidance, but can you share with us what the energy book-to-bill has been in those two different, in the recip engines and in Solar?
Michael Lynn DeWalt - Vice President, Finance Services Division:
Well, definitely for recip engines, the backlog has been going down. That's probably no surprise. I mean, we haven't got a lot of new orders for oil and gas over the last six months as the oil price has declined and investment is beginning to dry up. So our backlog has definitely come down for the recip side, not so much for Solar.
Joel G. Tiss - BMO Capital Markets (United States):
Okay. Thank you
Michael Lynn DeWalt - Vice President, Finance Services Division:
Next question.
Operator:
Our next question is from Joe O'Dea. Please announce your affiliation and pose your question.
Joe J. O'Dea - Vertical Research Partners LLC:
Good morning. It's Vertical Research. First question just on mining, and in the press release talking about both equipment and aftermarket being down. I think for a little while now aftermarket has been trending more flat. And so just looking for any context around those aftermarket trends in the quarter, whether this is the beginning of another chapter of declines given commodity movement over the last six months, or if those decline rates are actually pretty small?
Michael Lynn DeWalt - Vice President, Finance Services Division:
Yeah, good question, Joe. And I wish honestly we had a crystal ball where I could give you a very crisp answer for that. I think I'll refer back to Doug's comment a bit ago around customers delaying maintenance intervals and repair intervals. And that's going to in our view, that's going to catch up. I know that's a little bit of a broken record and we've been saying that. But fundamentally, the more they run this equipment, and the longer those repair and maintenance intervals go, the more pressure there's going to be. I don't think anything fundamentally has changed. They still need to repair and maintain vehicles, but I think they're pushing it a little harder right now.
Joe J. O'Dea - Vertical Research Partners LLC:
Perfect. Thank you. And then maybe just as a follow up on the power gen side. North America and Asia-Pac both flat in the quarter. I think this is on the heels of actually several years of seeing weakness in power gen. So really just asking your confidence in finding any sort of bottom and any visibility you have into improving demand in power gen?
Michael Lynn DeWalt - Vice President, Finance Services Division:
Yeah, I think for power gen, and I'll just make my comment sort of an around the world comment here. It's very dependent or reasonably tied to global GDP. We've not seen much improvement generally. We've got a pretty flattish world economy. If you think about electric power and a lot of it is backup power. When you build a new school, when you build a new shopping mall, you build a new factory, you need backup power and until you have maybe an improvement in construction around the world, you're probably not going to see much of a big improvement in electric power. Now that said, it was the least unfavorable in the quarter of the sectors under Energy & Transportation. And a lot of the decline was actually currency in Europe. So it's been from a demand standpoint I think more flattish than some of the others.
Joe J. O'Dea - Vertical Research Partners LLC:
Great. Thanks very much.
Michael Lynn DeWalt - Vice President, Finance Services Division:
Next question please. Hello?
Operator:
Our next question is coming from Jerry Revich. Please announce your affiliation and pose your question.
Jerry D. Revich - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Good morning, it's Goldman Sachs. You folks have spent a lot of time on supplier development. Can you just give us an update on how much more room you have to reduce material costs beyond raw material deflation? So obviously, steel costs coming down will help you folks in the back half of the year and maybe you could also touch on what kind of steel price you're assuming in the guidance over the balance of the year. Thanks.
Michael Lynn DeWalt - Vice President, Finance Services Division:
Yeah, Jerry, good question. If you look at our results over the past actually about three years, we've gotten pretty decent what we call material cost reduction. That's really been a combination of a couple of things. We have had commodity declines over the last few years, but we've actually as a company, throughout the company done a pretty good job on not just commodity-related price reductions, but actually cost-reducing components in our products. And we've got pretty good cost reduction doing that. So that's a lot of work between suppliers, purchasing, our engineering group to take costs beyond inflation and commodities out of the product. That continues this year. I think our expectation is there's still quite a bit of room to go there. That's always an ongoing effort. Above and beyond that, it does rely a little bit on what's going on with commodities, but I think there's still a lot of room to run there.
Douglas R. Oberhelman - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
I would just add here a little bit. We reorganized our procurement, our logistics and our lean manufacturing group a while back and we are really seeing the benefits of that. As Mike said, we've seen lower material costs several years, but at rates that have been unheard of around here prior to that. The operating margins, the pull-through numbers we've seen even in this down period of sales, we've never experienced before in the past either. And I would give this group and the fact that our operating units are embracing that all of the credit because we're seeing our built-in quality numbers and our quality metrics measured by defects per unit also drop through the floor. So all of this is really helping us at a time when we need that kind of efficiency, and it's working well. And I think the best is yet to come when sales do pick up and we can put it to work in a growing environment. But certainly now it's helped us on our decrement pull-through, and quite happy about that.
Bradley M. Halverson - Chief Financial Officer & Group President:
Doug, maybe I'll just make one comment. This is Brad. Frank Crespo leads that area and I'd go on visits with Frank. You would probably maybe not be surprised, but the tenor of these discussions when we go in with our suppliers is all about how we can collaborate, how we can develop a better product solution, more value to the customers and how can we take cost out of the process. And so when we go in, I would say to our suppliers in today's environment maybe compared to seven, eight, nine years ago, the discussions are incredibly different. They're not about what kind of a price decrease can you give me and a discussion and the negotiation around that. The discussions are all around collaboration. And I would say that that group's done a great job in the last four, five years with improving the collaboration. And there's a lot of talented suppliers and they're a huge asset to us.
Jerry D. Revich - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Okay.
Michael Lynn DeWalt - Vice President, Finance Services Division:
Thanks. Quick follow up?
Jerry D. Revich - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Yeah, just on the pricing side. You folks got better pricing and resource this quarter. And, Doug, over the course of your leadership, you've delivered pretty well on the PIN (31:40) side. I'm wondering how much room do you have to deliver modest price increases even as material costs are flat to down. Do you think you have room there over the next couple of years because of how much the premium has come in versus the competitor set?
Douglas R. Oberhelman - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
I really don't see much change coming the next couple of years there, unless we see some inflationary pressure. The entire industry has more than enough capacity. We've got a strong dollar to contend with with many of our big key competitors. I'm quite happy with the fact we've been able to more or less beat, or meet anyway, retail CPI around the world in price realization the last few years. The cost reduction at this point, at one point we talked about cost reduction efficiency, putting into market share, which we have been doing. I'd like to think we could continue that. Our market position over the last few years has trended up nicely and is even the last year up a bit in a very tough environment. I'd like to see that continue. So, I don't know, I think we continue to see more of the same where we've been in terms of price realization.
Jerry D. Revich - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Thank you.
Michael Lynn DeWalt - Vice President, Finance Services Division:
Thanks, Jerry.
Operator:
Our next question is coming from David Raso. Please announce your affiliation, then pose your question.
David Michael Raso - Evercore ISI Institutional Equities:
Hey, good morning. The conversation on the stock is going to increasingly shift toward the set-up into 2016. So I know you're not giving 2016 guidance, but can you help us a bit with where you see margins exiting 2015, in particular E&T? I mean, the margins have been stellar there, basically 18%, haven't really taken much of a hit. So I'm just curious, how do you see those margins as well as CI exiting 2015?
Michael Lynn DeWalt - Vice President, Finance Services Division:
David, this is Mike. Let me start with that. There are some headwinds in the second half of this year. And, again, I'm not going to get into next year, but I'll talk about a couple. One is inventory absorption impacts, negative. This year we're going to end up with a pretty healthy, by the time we get to the end of the year we think, a reasonably healthy inventory reduction for CAT inventory. And if you think about it, our sales this year versus last year are down from about $55 billion in our outlook down to about $49 billion. And so there's inventory coming out. Now, without getting too far ahead and talking about next year, I'll just say if I look at what the analyst consensus is right now for next year – it's not our forecast, but collectively you guys have our sales about roughly flat with that next year. And if that were the case, the degree of inventory coming out, which is going to be pretty heavily weighted to the second half of this year, that would be less of a drag. So I think the second half of this year is going to have some negatives in it related to that. Also there's a lot of first half/second half differences, some that are seasonal. Just for example, we tend to build dealer inventory in the first half of the year as we're preparing for the summer selling season, particularly for construction. And then dealers tend to use inventory in the second half of the year and we tend to under-sell demand. And that will be the case we think again this year. We expect dealer inventories to come down. So there are some built-in headwinds in the second half of the year. So I'm not going to get into a guidance game too much, but I don't think it's appropriate to probably take the second half of this year and multiply by two, I think because of headwinds like that. Now, all that said, next year will definitely be set up as a bit of a mix problem for us. If you think about this year, particularly in the recent piece of oil and gas, we came into the year with a pretty decent backlog, so much of the sales decline that we're going to have for the year in oil and gas is going to be in the second half of the year. So and one way to think of it is, good first half or reasonable first half for recip oil and gas, lower second half. Unless something changes in the marketplace, I think the likelihood is that you'd have a couple of weak halves next year. I mean the backlog now, we're kind of through. So I think without – and I don't think that's likely a big secret, year-over-year, full year-over-year you'll be looking at probably some margin weakness because of that. I think in terms of E&T margins overall, they've done a great job. I mean just if you look at the work that they've done over the past three, four years, it's just been phenomenal. I mean we focus a lot and we talk a lot when we have you on the phone about oil and gas, but they've taken up margins in almost every part of the business. Industrial for example, they've done a fabulous job on controlling costs and getting margins up there. So I think it's no doubt with recip oil and gas coming down there will be some pressure on E&T margins in the second half of the year. And unless the situation with Oil and Gas changes, I'm sure those pressures will continue. I know you would have probably liked a little more of a numerical discussion around 2016, but we'll have that maybe in October.
David Michael Raso - Evercore ISI Institutional Equities:
Well, I guess not even 2016 but, Mike, I was asking directly if you could at least quantify a little bit the margins exiting the year in E&T and CI. Are you willing to at least say you expect double-digit margins in both CI and E&T both 3Q and 4Q? We're just trying to get a feel for the run rate to set up into 2016.
Michael Lynn DeWalt - Vice President, Finance Services Division:
Well, I mean certainly based on where E&T is right now, there's no doubt my mind they'll be certainly double digits over the course of the second half, and I believe that too for Construction.
David Michael Raso - Evercore ISI Institutional Equities:
Okay. And then lastly on the backlog. Obviously it's down 23% year-over-year. It's down 15% since the start of the year. How should we think of the backlog expectations the rest of the year, given they at least historically show some relationship to how you guide sales? Are we expecting the backlog to improve the rest of the year, or still a drawdown?
Michael Lynn DeWalt - Vice President, Finance Services Division:
I think it probably depends upon the business that we're in, because they all have some seasonality to them. For example in Construction, we tend to get a lot of orders in late in the year and very early in the year. We develop a bigger backlog. Kind of again, it's a little bit like dealer inventory. Dealers are preparing for getting equipment lined up for the selling season. So that will likely happen I would think again. So I mean without again getting too specific, I would suspect if the seasonal patterns hold that in the second half we'd probably build a little bit of backlog in construction. In mining, the whole book-to-bill has been slightly negative. I mean it's getting to a point where there's not a lot of draw down coming, and I think we should probably be coming to the point where that's not very significant one way or the other. Until we get a recovery, that would be great. And then in E&T, you talked about the backlog coming down this year. And that goes back to the point that I made a little bit ago. We started the year with a pretty healthy backlog of recip engines for oil and gas and that's worked down throughout the year. There might be a little bit more of that to come out. But I can tell you, order rates for the first half of the year have been extremely lean. So I hope that helps.
David Michael Raso - Evercore ISI Institutional Equities:
Well I guess in aggregate then, is the CI uptick seasonally expected to be large enough to offset the E&T drawdown, I guess is the end of the day question.
Michael Lynn DeWalt - Vice President, Finance Services Division:
Yeah, honestly I don't know what the backlog forecast is. That isn't something we cover. And if I did, I probably wouldn't. I mean we've never disclosed a forecast for that and I probably wouldn't start. But to be honest with you, I don't know. I would be surprised if the change – I would personally be surprised given everything I know if the change was very much one way or the other over the course of the second half.
David Michael Raso - Evercore ISI Institutional Equities:
All right. I appreciate it. Thank you very much.
Operator:
Our next question is coming from Ted Grace. Please announce your affiliation then pose your question.
Ted Grace - Susquehanna Financial Group LLLP:
You said that the total revenue guidance is down a $1 billion to $49 billion and it's mostly FX. Is there any mix shift we should just be cognizant of between Construction, Resources and E&T and kind of the expectations for the year?
Michael Lynn DeWalt - Vice President, Finance Services Division:
Yeah, I think what I would tell you is that probably a disproportionate share of the currency impact is construction. Mining tends to be in a lot of the world a pretty dollar-denominated business. Oil and gas kind of tends to be as well, not entirely. So it's not 100% is Construction, but it's probably disproportionately Construction. So earlier in the year, we had thought Construction would be down kind of 5% to 10%. It'll probably be closer to the top end of that. But outside of that, I think no big shifts in what we thought was going to happen. I said this kind of in my opening comments. We've actually been I think pretty good at predicting what's going to happen this year, I think certainly on the top line and by and large on the bottom line as well.
Ted Grace - Susquehanna Financial Group LLLP:
Agreed. So I mean I think everyone's cognizant of how tough the macro is. One of the key kind of tenets of CAT's business model is market share. I was wondering if you could just talk about in the context of challenging markets, how you feel CAT's executing against the other competitors, and specifically maybe in North America construction if you're comfortable talking about that, EMEA construction and then whatever you might feel comfortable talking about within engines.
Michael Lynn DeWalt - Vice President, Finance Services Division:
Yeah, I think generally I would say we've done pretty good on share. It's been a fairly consistent march up year after year for about I think the last four years. It's not always every product every quarter. But it's a good generic comment to make. We've done well over that time period in North America. We've got a couple things I would say are really helping us with share. We have excellent Tier 4 products. I mean, we are the fuel economy leader at Tier 4. We're promoting the heck out of that. Quality of the Tier 4 products has been very good. Customers like them. So that's helped us a lot and Tier 4 is, and the European equivalent is, essentially in those developed markets and that's very much a comment around North America. And we've done a pretty decent job. We've also as Doug mentioned earlier kept price increases pretty modest and that's helped. And we've been able to do that because we have taken a lot of cost out and we've essentially reinvested that in market share and have done I think a pretty decent job.
Douglas R. Oberhelman - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
I just would like to add here on our Tier 4 final product, this is another big year for that. We're over halfway through final here and in Europe and in all of our models, we've seen an increase in fuel economy. We've seen a drop in defects per unit and those two things going into the marketplace have really helped us offset aggressive competitors, both because the dollar and because of capacity. I really am happy with where our product stands today. Particularly given our past history and some of these things we're going to introduce, a lot of new products at once, but we're in really good shape with this going forward, and I think the built-in quality, the lean metrics around what we measure now and the way in which we manage our factories and design are coming through nicely, and we see that. And that's been a big help to us in a tough cycle here.
Ted Grace - Susquehanna Financial Group LLLP:
Last thing I'll ask and I'll get back in queue. In terms of what you're seeing on the pricing front from a competitive dynamic, particularly North America, is it staying rational? Are you seeing any kind of shifts in that regard? And that'll be the last thing I ask.
Michael Lynn DeWalt - Vice President, Finance Services Division:
I don't have anything in particular that's dramatically different, no.
Ted Grace - Susquehanna Financial Group LLLP:
Okay. Thanks. Best of luck this quarter, guys.
Michael Lynn DeWalt - Vice President, Finance Services Division:
Okay. Ted, thanks.
Operator:
Our next question is coming from Henry Kirn. Please announce your affiliation and pose your question.
Henry George Kirn - SG Americas Securities LLC:
Hi. Good morning. It's SocGen.
Michael Lynn DeWalt - Vice President, Finance Services Division:
Hey. Good morning, Henry. Welcome back.
Henry George Kirn - SG Americas Securities LLC:
Thank you. It's good to be back. You mentioned in the press release accelerated focus on emerging technologies. Could you talk a little about the expectations for the level of investment required to maybe at a high level the required returns profile and the bigger picture goals there?
Michael Lynn DeWalt - Vice President, Finance Services Division:
What we're really referring to is the ongoing number of investments around connected machines to our factories, to our engineers, to our suppliers, to their owners and to their dealers. We've had a number of announcements around that. I expect to have a number more of those. The revolution is happening around big data and data analytics and we're right in the middle of it, with the idea being to connect every single one of our machines and hopefully those that aren't our machines and our customers with us in a very efficient way to raise their productivity. And I think you'll see continued emphasis on that. I would expect the returns actually on those to be very attractive as we go. It's a process because we're starting from – not starting from scratch because we had a lot of that internally, but developing that externally, we're taking advantage of a lot of that investment that's occurred outside of our industry and is known there. So really optimistic about it, early days and I think we'll really change our customers' and our dealers' world over the next decade. So this is really the beginning of that basis.
Henry George Kirn - SG Americas Securities LLC:
Thank you. And then now that the Greek situation is at least temporarily resolved, can you talk about what your folks on the ground there are seeing? And if there were green shoots, how would you expect that to begin to show up in the order book?
Michael Lynn DeWalt - Vice President, Finance Services Division:
I would say in Greece, we have such a small position there. It's such a small market. Even in the good days, it wouldn't ring any bells around here. I think the bigger issue with Greece is the amount of uncertainty it drives in EAME and beyond, that is specifically in South Europe. Having that tone down and calm down out of the headlines every single day may help. I think it depends on what the European Central Bank does and the individual governments going forward to have some kind of recovery in their economies. I would point out our retail numbers yesterday, while down in EAME, after the United States were the best. It's still a down market, but we're not seeing total catastrophe there like we saw two, three, four years ago. I would say stability is probably in the not too distant future. I don't know when growth will return, but it will. So I think the Greece thing is one of those that needs to get behind us all in order to reestablish some kind of stability in the political environment over there, which will lead then to some kind of economic stability and hopefully growth in the not too distant future.
Henry George Kirn - SG Americas Securities LLC:
Thank you very much.
Michael Lynn DeWalt - Vice President, Finance Services Division:
Okay. Next question?
Operator:
Our next question is coming from Ann Duignan. Please announce your affiliation and pose your question.
Ann P. Duignan - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Yeah, hi. Good morning. JPMorgan. My first question is just around the backlog being down 23% at this point. Mike, how feasible is it in any way, shape or form that revenues could be up next year?
Michael Lynn DeWalt - Vice President, Finance Services Division:
It all depends on what happens in the economy. In many of our businesses we don't commonly have much of a backlog. The entire aftermarket business, Construction is a pretty short lead-time business. So I think whether sales are up or not next year isn't necessarily driven by what's in the backlog today. It will be more a case of where are commodity prices as we start to exit the year, and that will be based on where's the global economy going. So I don't think right now I would draw a direct link between the backlog and the sales forecast. A lot could change in the next six months, good or bad. I'm not trying to sugarcoat it. I'm just saying that sales next year are going to be dependent a lot on what happens in the global economy. We're on the edge right now of what's needed for growth. We have a pretty decent correlation, particularly in the U.S., when GDP is above 2.5%, we tend to grow. When it's about 2.5% or below, and it varies by degree, we don't. So I think a decent recovery in the economy would help a lot. I know that's a simplistic answer, but it's the truth.
Ann P. Duignan - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Well, I mean, I think that's fair. And then my follow-up question would be, Doug, again with backlog being down 23%, I was a little surprised that R&D was flat year-over-year and SG&A only down 3%. What would it take for you to have to seriously look at those two line items and say, you know what, we're going to have to cut some of these projects that we're working on or some deeper cuts than just shutting manufacturing plants?
Douglas R. Oberhelman - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Ann, we started the year in December, January hoping to actually increase our R&D 2015 over 2014. We have not done that. In fact, we took that back to flat, as you alluded to, as well as CapEx. We are constantly monitoring the market long term. You've heard me say many times in the past we have not had the availability when markets turn up and we lose market share. We're paranoid about market share around here. It's what drives us and drives our dealers. I would say to see a major reduction, and I'm not going to define that, we'd have to see some kind of a cataclysm downwards in our top line. And we see that, we'll react as we have in the past and shown we can do that. So that would be the catalyst. If we see something really nasty coming or happening, we'd probably go right at. Not probably, we will go right after it.
Ann P. Duignan - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Okay. And would you consider not repurchasing shares in the same environment, or is the share repurchase a done deal?
Michael Lynn DeWalt - Vice President, Finance Services Division:
Well, the share repurchase that we talked about this morning, Ann, is what we expect to do for the third quarter. I mean, we've not really talked or placed any kind of forecasts or estimates or anything in the market around what we would do after that, but I certainly wouldn't describe the third quarter as a done deal per se, but it's absolutely what we intend to do.
Douglas R. Oberhelman - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
What drives the buyback, it drives our capital allocation, everything else, is really a strong balance sheet. And with the balance sheet today at 33%, 34% debt-to-cap with almost $8 billion in cash, taking $1.5 billion off in the third quarter still leaves us in a great position going forward if we saw a cataclysm or if we don't. And that's really how we look at it because we absolutely have to have that strong balance sheet to get us through growth times and times we're not growing, like we have. We've never been positioned at a time like this with that strong of a balance sheet, which allows us to return some of that to shareholders. Now, we go down in the top line further, we'll have to assess where we are with our capital structure and everything else and all that would play into it. We'd probably revise it to some degree. We've got plenty of room and plenty of years in our $10 billion authorization with $4 billion to go to get that done or not and we assess that all the time.
Bradley M. Halverson - Chief Financial Officer & Group President:
Ann, this is Brad. I'll just make a comment. We're trying to act very consistent within our business model. You know, we've talked about going back to 2012 when our sales were down $16 billion, $17 billion. What we've wanted to do over this timeframe is to grow our market share, to improve our quality. We've had very little price action relative to that, so the quality of our earnings is to deliver 25% decremental to 30% decremental numbers balancing all of these things in terms of what we can do. With the work we've been able to do in our variable margin, we're going to be right around 25% for that period. We're well below 25% to 30% decremental in the first half of the year. And so because of that, we're very happy to be able to fund our R&D programs and to be in a position of strength, to have those when the market does turns around. As Doug mentioned, we've got close to $8 billion of cash. Our debt-to-cap is low. We don't have huge CapEx needs at this point in time. And we're going to fund R&D at close to the levels of 2012 which was a record year. And we'll do all that and still have a very strong balance sheet heading into next year.
Ann P. Duignan - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
And I appreciate that all in the backdrop of a global macro environment that's very hard to call right now.
Michael Lynn DeWalt - Vice President, Finance Services Division:
Yeah, yeah. Absolutely.
Ann P. Duignan - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Yeah, okay. I'll get back in line. Thank you. I appreciate your time.
Operator:
Our next question is from Vishal Shah. Please announce your affiliation and pose your question.
Vishal B. Shah - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Yeah, thanks. Deutsche Bank. Can you talk about your inventory levels? What do you think the right sized inventory levels would be and how does the reduction impact by different segments?
Michael Lynn DeWalt - Vice President, Finance Services Division:
Now, Vishal, are you talking about our inventory or dealer inventory?
Vishal B. Shah - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
I would say your inventory levels. I think you said that you're going to reduce inventory levels in the back half of the year. What is the run rate you expect at the end of the year and where the reduction comes from?
Michael Lynn DeWalt - Vice President, Finance Services Division:
Yes. So I think if you look at our business, we, a bit like dealers, sometimes tend to build some inventory at the beginning of the year as we're ramping up production for the selling season. And then when we get particularly in the fourth quarter, we have a tendency to sell more than we produce and inventory comes down. So I think a part of what you're going to see in the fourth quarter is just a little bit of a seasonal pattern for us. That happened last year as well. We had a pretty sizable inventory reduction in the second half. I think if you just look at our inventory levels broadly, CAT inventory, we're working on lean. We'd like kind of year in and year out to take them down for efficiency. It would be nice if we had enough increase in volume that it caused inventory to go up from a volume standpoint, but all else being equal, we're working hard to improve inventory turns and be more efficient. So I guess all else being equal, I would like to see it continue to come down a little bit as we improve processes. But, and I'll make a comment on dealer inventory too. It wasn't asked directly, but I think most of what we're seeing in over the course of this year first half, second half, it would be more reduction in the second half. But again, I think there is some seasonality in dealer inventory that way. It'll likely start to build again in the first quarter for the selling season. And I don't think dealer inventories overall are out of line or problematic or anything of the case like that. So I think reasonably speaking, most of the dealer inventory reduction that was because there was too much per se, happened in 2013 and 2014.
Michael Lynn DeWalt - Vice President, Finance Services Division:
With that, we are at the top of the hour, and I just want to thank everybody for joining us today. We'll sign off and talk to you again next quarter.
Operator:
Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. This does conclude today's teleconference. You may disconnect your phones line at this time. And have a wonderful day. Thank you for your participation.
Executives:
Mike DeWalt - Vice President, Finance Services Doug Oberhelman - Chairman and CEO Brad Halverson - Group President and CFO
Analysts:
Ted Grace - Susquehanna Financial Group Jerry Revich - Goldman Sachs Seth Weber - RBC Capital Markets Eli Lustgarten - Longbow Research Ann Duignan - JP Morgan Securities Steven Fisher - UBS Securities Andrew Casey - Wells Fargo Securities Andrew Kaplowitz - Barclays Capital David Raso - Evercore ISI Institutional Equities Robert Wertheimer - Vertical Research Partners
Operator:
Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. And welcome to the First Quarter 2015 Result Conference Call. At this time, all participants have been placed on a listen-only mode. The floor will be open for your questions and comments following the presentation. It is now my pleasure to turn the floor over to your host, Mike DeWalt. Sir, the floor is yours.
Mike DeWalt:
Thank you very much, Dana, and good morning, and welcome everyone to our first quarter earnings call. I'm Mike DeWalt, Caterpillar's Vice President of Finance Services. And on the call today, I'm pleased to have our Chairman and CEO, Doug Oberhelman; and Group President and CFO, Brad Halverson. Remember this call is copyrighted by Caterpillar Inc., any use, recording or transmission of any portion of the call without the expressed written consent of Caterpillar is strictly prohibited. If you'd like a copy of today's call transcript, we will be posting it in the Investors section of our caterpillar.com website, it will be in the section labeled Results Webcast. This morning we'll be discussing forward-looking information that involves risks, uncertainties and assumptions that could cause our actual results to differ materially from the forward-looking information. A discussion of some of the factors that either individually or in the aggregate could make actual results differ materially from our projections that can be found in our cautionary statements under Item 1A, Risk Factors of our Form 10-K filed with the SEC in February of 2015 and it’s also in our forward-looking statements language in today’s financial release. In addition, there is a reconciliation of non-GAAP measures that can also be found in this morning’s release and again, it’s posted at caterpillar.com. Okay, with that let's get started. This morning we'll be reviewing financial results for the first and our revised outlook for 2015. Then there about three points that I’d like to start with actually before we get into the details. And the first is that from a macro standpoint, in our view not much has changed since our last earnings conference call in January. So we are staying pretty focused on the things that we do have some control of and that’s execution and operational improvement, things like safety, quality, market share, efficiency, cost control, inventory turns and cash flow, and we continue to make progress. And that brings me to my second point. Given the environment we are in we were pleased with our first quarter results. Sales in the quarter were pretty close to what we expected and we were pleased with the bottomline. And that brings me to my third point, and that’s a reminder of what we said in our year end conference call back in January. We said that, we expected the year to start out stronger than it would end and that’s still what we expect, and that’s probably evident to you if you consider our first quarter actual results and what we are expecting for the first year. Okay, with those three points, let’s get into the quarter. Sales and revenues were $12.7 billion and that was about 4% less than the $13.2 billion that we had in the first quarter last year, $342 million of that decline in sales was a result of the stronger dollar, and sales volume was unfavorable $295 million. Those two items were partially offset by a small improvement in price realization that was $105 million, definitely in the right direction but less than 1%. Now the only region in the world that was up was North America and that was up 9%. The North American improvement was pretty much across the Board in each of our -- with each of our segment being in positive territory. Outside of North America that wasn't the case and sales in each of our segments were down in Latin America, Europe, Africa, Middle East and in the Asia-Pacific region. In total sales and revenues were off 18% in Latin America and sales of all of our Equipment segments that’s resource industries, construction industries, and energy and transportation were down double digits. Construction was off 23% and a sizable portion of that with the absence of a large order from the Brazilian Government that we had in the first quarter last year and weaker construction activity in general in the region particular, Brazil. Resource industries was also down 23% in Latin America, reflecting continuing weakness in mining and that's pretty much the case in every region. And energy and transportation was down 11%. Sales and revenues in the Europe, Africa, Middle East region were down 12%. Construction industries was off 14% and most of that was from less favorable dealer inventory changes and the impact of currency on our sales. Resource industries was also up 14%, again weak mining and energy and transportation was down 8%. Sales and revenues in Asia Pacific were down 13% with the most significant decline in construction industries at 21%. Construction industries were down substantially in China and lower in Japan as a result of the stronger dollar versus the yen. Our sales in Japan which are in yen essentially translated into fewer dollars. Okay, that's a recap of sales. Profit per share though was higher in the first quarter than it was in the first quarter a year ago. This year it was $1.81 per share, a year ago in the first quarter it was a $1.44 a share. Now we had restructuring costs in both quarters, in the first quarter of last year, we had $0.17 per share of restructure costs and that was mostly from the actions that we took in our European operations. This year we had $0.05 per share of restructuring costs in the first quarter. So excluding restructuring profit per share improved from a $1.61 a year ago to a $1.86 in the current quarter -- the first quarter. Now the primary reasons profit per share was up, number one was the $120 million gain that we had from the sale of our remaining ownership in what was our third-party logistics business. We also had, as I mentioned a minute ago, $105 million of positive price realization and we had $77 million of favorable currency impacts that helped operating profit. I am just going to stop there for a minute and chat about currency. It's a subject that for us seems to be frequently misunderstood not just like to clarify things again. We do have substantial sales that are in currencies other than the U.S. dollar. And where the dollar strengthened that causes those sales to translate into fewer dollars not the negative for our topline. That said, we also have substantial manufacturing operations and we saw substantial purchase materials outside the U.S., so lot of factories outside the U.S. and lot of sourcing outside the U.S. That results in lower costs when translated to U.S. dollars. That's exactly what happened this quarter. Sales translated into fewer dollars, as I mentioned a little bit ago, $342 million fewer. However, the impact on costs was favorable $419 million and the net to operating profit was positive $77 million. While we are not 100% exactly balanced in our currency exposures, we do have reasonably offsetting sales and cost positions that usually keep the profit impact of exchange rate swings to a reasonably manageable level. Okay, that's the story on currency I will kind of get back to profit now. I'd already talked about the positive items and offsetting those positives for the quarter, we did have lower sales volume and that was negative to our operating profit about $83 million and we had higher costs. The most significant cost factor was a change in the timing of expense related to the vesting of stock-based compensation. The timing change won't have an impact on the full-year versus 2014, but it did add to cost in the first quarter. Okay, that's a quick run through of profit versus the first quarter last year. Let's turn to the balance sheet and cash flow. Machinery, energy and transportation operating cash flow was a little over a $1 billion in the quarter, but that was about $800 million lower than the first quarter last year, and most of that decline came from higher incentive compensation payments in the first quarter of this year and they are based on performance in 2014. We used about $400 million of cash in the quarter to repurchase shares and with relatively modest needs for CapEx this year. We currently expect to continue to repurchase shares in 2015. And as you might expect, the timing and the amount that we ultimately repurchase, well that will be subject to business and market conditions as we progress through the year and on our cash deployment priorities. Our balance sheet remains strong with a debt-to-total capital ratio of 37.1%. That's about right in the middle of our targeted 30% to 45% range and it was slightly favorable versus year-end 2014. If you net cash with the debt, our net debt to capital ratio at the end of the quarter was 18.3%. Now before we get into the revised outlook, I’ll just recap changes in the order backlog over the last quarter because I suspect many of you are interested in that. We ended the first quarter with an order backlog of $16.5 billion, that's about $800 million lower than the year end 2014. The decline was split between construction industries and resource industries. You might have expected that energy and transportation would've also declined from year-end as a result of weakness in the oil industry. It was in total however about flat. We did have a decline in the backlog because of weakness in oil but that was about offset by the increase in the backlog for locomotives. Okay, with that let me go through the 2015 outlook. As I started out in terms of overall world economic growth, we don't expect much change from the outlook that we provided with our year-end results in January and the same goes for our sales and revenues. We’re holding it at about $50 billion for 2015. Now while we’re not changing the sales outlook, just as a reminder, we do expect 2015 to be over $5 billion lower than 2014. And as we said last January and I'll reiterate today, the impact of substantially lower oil prices is the most significant reason for the decline. And we still think the most significant impact from oil will be from engines and other equipment that we sell for drilling and well servicing and that’s a spot where we expect a large drop in demand this year. We've already started to see the impact of that in our order backlog as new orders have not kept pace with sales and the backlog has declined and we’ll start seeing that hit sales over the course of 2015. We also expect that indirect expense -- FX from substantially lower oil prices will be negative in 2015 versus 2014. In countries and in some regions of the U.S. where oil production is significant for either government receipts or for the local economies, it will likely be negative for sales of construction equipment and for electric power generation business. In some cases, it can be fairly direct like building the road to service the new well or it can be very indirect like construction spending in the country where the government relies on oil revenue to fund spending. Because many of those construction-related impacts are indirect, it does make it tough to measure. But anecdotally, we believe we are already starting to see the impacts of that in our construction business. In addition to oil, there are several other factors that are contributing to the year-over-year decline in sales. The stronger dollar is a headwind to sales but again not profit. Commodity prices in mining are generally weak particularly iron ore and coal and that's negative for mining in our resource industry segment. If weaknesses in agriculture, we’re expecting lower sales of industrial engines and we expect our rail business to be down in 2015, after a great year in 2014. And we expect weakness in the construction industries of key developing countries like China and Brazil and that was certainly evident in our first quarter. So that's a recap of our year-over-year changes, down from 2014 but no change in the topline outlook for 2015. We did raise the profit outlook again this morning. Our previous outlook was $4.60 per share, all in and $4.75 excluding restructuring costs. This morning we raise the profit outlook to $4.70 per share, all in and $5 per share excluding restructuring costs. Now the changes from the previous outlook include more restructuring activity. We've increased our restructuring cost estimate from about $150 million expected for this year, up $100 million to about $250 million, with almost all the increase related to facilities that produce mining products. We added the $120 million gain in the first quarter on the sale of our remaining ownership of the third-party logistics business that wasn't in our previous outlook. And based on our first quarter actual results, we made some additional improvements to the profit outlook. While we held the topline and made a modest improvement to the bottom line of our outlook, 2015 is still shaping up to be uncertain and challenging year. There continues to be softness in Latin America, particularly Brazil. China growth is concerning. There is a bit stability in the scale of economic recovery in the United States remains concerning. Europe is still a question mark. Mining hasn’t shown improvement yet and while we’re still planning a sharp decline in our oil related sales in 2015, we are still a concern around that. So to wrap up and move on the Q&A portion of the call, sales and revenues in the first quarter were about as we expected and we had a solid profit quarter. We repurchased 400 million of shares in the quarter, the balance sheet remains strong and we’re very focused on operational performance and cost control. But it still looks like a tough year and we've not seen meaningful signs of recovery in many of our cyclical businesses. So with that, we’re ready to move on to the Q&A portion of the call.
Operator:
Thank you. [Operator Instructions] And I'm showing our first question coming from Ted Grace. Sir, your line is live.
Ted Grace:
Hey guys, congratulations on the quarter.
Doug Oberhelman:
Thank you.
Ted Grace:
Two questions on guidance. The first on revenue. Mike, I know you said you're reaffirming at $50 billion. Last quarter you walked through expectations for Construction Industries and Resource Industries and E&T. I was just wondering if you're reaffirming each of those or have there been any tweaks across the business segment at the revenue level?
Mike DeWalt:
Yeah. No, I would say by and large, it looks pretty close to what we said at the end of the year.
Ted Grace:
Okay, that's helpful. And the related question would be on the EPS side, you raised guidance $0.25. I know you mentioned $0.14 is from Cat Logistics. I'm just wondering if you could walk through the other puts and takes. It looked like incentive comp would have been about $0.05 tailwind if I read that correctly.
Brad Halverson:
I would say that’s our fault. We rounded to the nearest $100 million last time and we rounded to the nearest $10 million this time. There was by and large little change in our forecast for incentive comp. We did raise guidance this $0.25, and you would normally think that would add to incentive comp. But most of the add was for the gain that we had on the sale of the logistics business. And our comp is based on OPACC, operating profit after capital charge and that gain was below operating profit, so it’s really not having any impact on the incentive comp.
Ted Grace:
Okay. Was there any incremental benefit from restructuring that you would realize in 2015 that was not previously anticipated?
Brad Halverson:
I would say not that was not previously anticipated. I mean, we did expect benefits from restructuring to be better this year. So no, I wouldn’t say we added anything for that. Now we did add to restructuring cost. And down the road after those are complete, those should definitely lead to more benefits. But actually in the short-term, there are related costs for things like rearrangement that aren’t included in the number that contend to be a little bit negative around the time you are actually doing it. So I would say on balance that is relative to our original outlook not a big reason for change. We took the profit outlook up, mostly because of very good cost control in the first quarter. We don’t give quarterly guidance, but we were a little better than we thought we were going to be in the quarter. And some of that of course was timing, but some of it is spending that we don’t think we will have to make as the year goes on.
Ted Grace:
Okay. And FX, was that any dynamic in the revision?
Brad Halverson:
No, not much. In fact, we didn’t really change our outlook for currency. We did do a spot check on the impact on profit of recent changes and that was pretty neutral. So we will take another look at that midyear and see if there is any changes need for that.
Ted Grace:
Great. Thanks a lot. And best of luck this quarter, guys.
Brad Halverson:
Thanks, Ted.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question is coming from Jerry Revich. Please announce the affiliation and pose your question.
Jerry Revich:
Good morning. It’s Goldman Sachs. I am wondering if you could talk about what was just the magnitude of material cost benefit that you realized this quarter. And I know you're working hard with the supply chain, just help us understand how we should think about the puts and takes over the balance of the year for material costs with volumes coming down, but commodity costs that should be I think lower sequentially. Can you may be give us more color there?
Doug Oberhelman:
Yes. Absolutely, material cost control has been a real positive actually not just in the first quarter, but over the past few years the team has done a great job. That’s a combination of the purchasing group and the design group in terms of designing for cost reduction. So it’s been pretty good. It was a decent positive again in the first quarter. If memory serves me, it was in the neighborhood of 1.5%. Now to the extent that we buy things in non-U.S. currencies, we wouldn’t be including it and that kind of number we isolate the impact of currency on our expenses separately at least for those that are denominated in foreign currencies.
Jerry Revich:
Okay. And my follow-up on the dealer inventory side, how should we think about inventory levels over the balance of the year? And out of the inventory build that we saw in the quarter, is it in the right regions, is it in areas that you folks want?
Doug Oberhelman:
Yes. I mean, we did have an inventory build in the first quarter and we didn’t talk a lot about that in the release, partly because I think sometimes it gets taken out of context. We expect an inventory build in the first quarter. The selling season from dealers and customers tends to be heavier in the summertime and so dealers add inventories up ahead of summertime. That occurred this year in construction industries. We have order of magnitude of 180 million dealers or 180 dealers roughly around the world. At any given point in time, you’ve got some of them, they probably have a little too much and some that have probably a little too little. If we look at our months of supply on hand, we kind of try to judge that in a reasonable range and we do look at that by region. And by and large, I think our dealer inventory we would say is in a reasonable range. Now from here, we definitely believe it will come down over the course of the year that happened last year. That’s kind of normal to have a build in the first quarter and then have dealers sell that down as we go through the year.
Jerry Revich:
Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question is coming from Seth Weber. Please announce your affiliation and pose your question.
Seth Weber:
Good morning. It's RBC. I wanted to ask about the Resource Industries segment. The margin there in the first quarter actually went up sequentially even though revenue was down. I mean, do you feel like the margin has bottomed in that business at this point?
Doug Oberhelman:
No, I wouldn’t say that, Seth. I think if you look at it sequentially, you always have to consider that we have some reasonable seasonality between the first quarter and the fourth quarter or fourth quarter to first quarter in discretionary costs. So fourth quarter was a pretty heavy quarter, first quarter was a pretty like quarter in terms of spending. So I think that has a lot to do with the sequential improvement. Now I think Resource Industries margins will likely come down as the year progresses. We kind of said before we thought something around breakeven was probably reasonable. I think that we are going to add the spending over the course of the year. We’ve got some R&D programs that we need to do there. We talked about that in January. So my guess is coming off of a pretty light quarter for cost and some increase in engineering as the year goes by and probably not a lot of change in the topline, margin will probably moderate from where it’s at.
Seth Weber:
So just to be clear to get to a breakeven kind of number, would you go negative in a given quarter for the year?
Doug Oberhelman:
Once you get around breakeven, the numbers are so small that $10 million or $15 million one way or the other could cause that. I mean, if we’re positive in the first quarter, we are thinking breakeven for the year. If it’s slipped a little below that at the quarter during the year, that wouldn’t be surprising.
Seth Weber:
Okay. Thank you. And if I could just ask a follow-up on the aftermarket business for Resource, it was down, revenue was down. Is there any kind of light at the end of the tunnel there? Or is that -- I mean, what do you think needs to happen there for the aftermarket business to get better on mining?
Mike DeWalt:
That’s a very good question. We've been asking ourselves that. We've got customers with some parked equipment. We think again there's been some cannibalizing of equipment in the field. We are looking -- I think customers are pushing out rebuild times. In our view that can't keep happening but it has been happening. So when that turns around, it is like the industry overall. It’s a little bit hard to predict the timing but we understand where both parked sales and equipment sales are to what’s at least for equipment a reasonable replacement level. It’s far below that. But when that's going to turn around it's hard to say.
Seth Weber:
Fair enough. Okay. Thank you very much guys.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question is coming from Eli Lustgarten. Please announce our affiliation and poise your question.
Eli Lustgarten:
Good morning everyone.
Mike DeWalt:
Good morning.
Doug Oberhelman:
Good morning, Eli.
Eli Lustgarten:
It's a nice quarter. We are all impressed. We talked about the breakeven in our resource now. Can you talk to us about what we should expect profitability wise, which were very impressive in both construction and in E&T? Particularly, we know volume is going to drop in E&T but you did north of $0.15, almost 16% in construction and over 20% in E&T. And while we expect to come down in order to hold the guidance where you are, these numbers have to come down quite a bit. Can you give me some idea of what we should expect and do we think does construction go below double-digit operating margin for the year but what happens as the year unfolds and the business weakens?
Mike DeWalt:
Yeah. So, I think this really goes kind of across the company. I will touch on several of the segments. But we expect -- the first quarter was kind of seasonally low on costs. So just as a matter of course discretionary cost will go up a bit from the first quarter level. We do plan to spend some more on R&D and we talked about that last January. We are looking at negative mix. We will have negative product mix in E&T because of the decline in the oil business that's coming. We also expect some negative mix in Construction Industries. If you look at what they sold in the first quarter, it was relatively balanced between -- we have three pieces of construction -- earthmoving, excavation and building construction products, so BCP are smaller equipment. So what we actually saw in the quarter, at least in terms of new equipment was fairly balanced between those three subsectors. But if you look at what was ordered and what we think is going to happen for sales as the year unfolds, probably not a lot of change in total for construction but a bit more of a shift to BCP smaller machines. And part of that is -- in countries like China where the selling season is very early in the year that helps excavation sales. And then that tails down later in the year. So, we are looking at some negative mix in construction as the year goes on. I don’t think for the year we are not, at least in our -- contemplated in our outlook, we are not going to fall below double digits for construction. E&T operating profit percent will, I think for sure come down I guess I can’t say for sure. We would expect it would come down and mostly because of declines in the oil business, which is -- tends to be bigger, little bit higher-margin product.
Eli Lustgarten:
And can you follow-up, can we talk a little bit about what's going on in pricing across the businesses? I mean, you did single out that one of the problems in the resource business was basically pricing more than anything else. So what's going on in the other two sectors pricing wise? Are things relatively holding or is there some more price competition showing up?
Mike DeWalt:
That's a good question and it's interesting. When the numbers get this small, it’s too much about numbers that are relatively small. I mean, we had for the company overall $105 million of price realization that’s less than 1%. I think the segment that is doing -- the segments that are doing better right now are construction and energy and transportation. Construction in particular did a little bit better, but part of that is really from a few three things. One is we had last year, this big Brazilian order from the government. And while that was good volume it was pretty low price. So without that sort of our average price level is up a bit. We had some favorable geographic mix and we did take list price increases, a small but up at the beginning of the year, so that all contributed a bit. I think with Resource Industries, it's been down year-over-year for the last -- certain last couple of quarters. I can’t remember the third but probably the third last year as well. It’s just the top business right now. It is dog eat dog. And although a lot of that product that we sell is dollar-based, the sales are conducted in dollars a lot in mining. Some of our key competition like Komatsu probably has more of a yen cost based than we do and they are being aggressive. So it's a tough industry.
Doug Oberhelman:
I will add. Doug Oberhelman here. Mike said dog eat dog, I’d rather say a cat eats dog. But be that as it may. We are seeing a very competitive marketplace right now. We did post up a little price realization in the first quarter, which I was very happy to see. But I will tell you with a yen that's off over 50% in three years, euro, Brazilian currency, pound currency off 20 to 30% in the last year. All of our competitors aren’t in the U.S. So it really is a competitive environment out there. But we are not giving up our PINS goals, our market share goals. We are doing as well as we can be expected in a tough market that we are. Certainly, our cost management in the last couple of years has helped that, our lean manufacturing where we generated cost advantage is helping. We are still very much focused on market share. But I would say the competition for every deal has gotten greater as we've seen this dollar strengthen.
Eli Lustgarten:
Thank you very much.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question is coming from Ann Duignan. Please announce our affiliation and poise your question.
Ann Duignan:
Hi, J.P. Morgan. My first question, it's really I suppose it's to you Doug. We talk about Europe and the euro being weak and what that's doing to help the European manufacturers export but are you seeing any signs of European economies getting any better at all? Or is that something that you think might be on the op income going into ’16?
Doug Oberhelman:
I think it's in our future. I said on the show this morning that it seems to me that with the QE coming in by the ECB with a euro that’s up, like I said 25% or so on a year’s time with energy prices where they are, the stimulus of all three of those and not to mention, continuing lowered rates, which has finally happened across Europe. I like in the euro zone, an awful lot to the period of say, 2010 ‘11 and ‘12 in the U.S. where there was a lot of stimulus. We didn't see much growth but we see better growth now. So I am convinced it’s coming. I don't know if it will be, when it will be and I’m not going to predict that. But we still see and I was just with several of our European dealers, we still have the North-South divide. I think the Germans would say they see some green shoots in that economy. We’re not seeing it in our numbers but they were a bit more optimistic in Germany, of course a euro at $1.07, $1.08 really benefits those exporters. So I think, we’re on the early stages of what will be a recovery. I don’t think it’s going to be a boom and I think it’s going to be an anemic growth probably looking a lot like what we've seen here. But it will feel better when it happens for sure, Ann.
Ann Duignan:
I'm sure it will. And then just switching gears as my follow-up, we track the U.S. construction industry shipments from census data and those have been done but orders are down about 27% in Q1. That's just through February. Can you talk about what you're seeing out there on construction industry orders? Does that include exports that might have weakened because of the strength of the dollar or what's going on out there in terms of industry orders on the construction equipment side? Thanks.
Doug Oberhelman:
Yeah. I haven’t looked at it by region so much. But I know that for our construction industry segment, if I look at orders in the first quarter, all I’ll tell you is they’re down -- they’re down, I mean, no doubt about that but our backlog was a little bit lower in the first quarter. But our orders were certainly not down anywhere near that over the magnitude.
Ann Duignan:
Okay. And just that have anything to do with the fact that your dealers cannot cancel orders so we might be seeing some delivery. We may have inventories corrected later in the year or have you changed that policy? And then I leave it there.
Mike DeWalt:
We actually work very closely with dealers to help them set, sort of, in combination what an appropriate level of inventory for them is. I mean the last thing we want is the dealer ending up with too much. I mean that it never helps anybody if that's the case. So I don't think there's any -- there's no -- as far as I know, I can't see any inventory problem sitting out there. If you’re going back and looking two years ago, that was the case but that’s just not the case now. I’m probably not looking at the same data that you’re looking at on the 27%. All I can tell you is our orders aren’t down. And are you talking versus a year ago, Ann?
Ann Duignan:
Yes. It's the U.S. consensus data or census data -- excuse me -- and it is year over year through February.
Mike DeWalt:
Yeah. I couldn’t. Any comment on how we are relative to that number be pure speculation on my part but we’re not seeing that kind of a decline, no.
Ann Duignan:
Okay. That's helpful color. Okay. I'll get back in line. Thanks guys.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question is coming from Steven Fisher. Please announce your affiliation then post your question.
Steven Fisher:
Great. Thanks. It's UBS. Just a follow-up on that last question there, how did the 9% increase in North American construction sales compare to your expectations? I know you are earlier in the year looking for North America to be up for the year. Is that still the case and should we maybe now be prepared for some year-over-year declines in North American contraction as the year plays on?
Mike DeWalt:
Yeah. I think on balance and our outlook in January and I kind of updated that a little bit today. We expected construction sales to be down 5% to 10%. But then and now, the only region that’s likely to be in neutral to positive territory is North America. The first quarter was by and large about what we expected.
Steven Fisher:
Okay. So North American construction still expected to be up for the year, is the context of that down 5% to 10%?
Mike DeWalt:
Yeah. I would say the total was down 5% to 10%. The only region that’s not really down is North America but the numbers are very small. I would say it’s within the margin of error to be neutral to positive.
Steven Fisher:
Okay. And then can you just give us a sense of the pace of the bookings on the Solar Turbines in the quarter and maybe how far out that backlog extends now for the business? Are you putting anything in there for 2016 yet? Thanks.
Doug Oberhelman:
I’ll take that, Mike. And I just came back from Solar in San Diego two days ago and got a pretty good briefing. I would say their forecast, which is rolled up into ours for ‘15 is a pretty good line of sight to that. They would not speculate it and really don't know much beyond that into ‘16 as yet. I would say around gas compression, of course, which is the big piece of solar business that has held up. And there's a lot of pipeline work going on. There is a lot of pressure behind it that’s required and that's our turbine and compressor in most cases. So I’d say it’s again a challenging environment but for gas compression the rest of the year, they’re pretty much, I think going to end up where we thought they would be and that’s good. And we’re not going to do anything about ‘16 and even speculate today. And we will later in the year because things are evolving so quickly here that I don’t know what it will be and we’re concentrating on ‘15. But solar I think it’s got a year that we’re pretty confident about that’s baked into here as well.
Steven Fisher:
Okay. Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question is coming from Andrew Casey. Please announce your affiliation and post your question.
Andrew Casey:
Wells Fargo Securities. Thanks a lot. A bigger question, a bigger picture question within North America, have you seen any sort of equipment flow back from the energy production areas to date or do you think that's a potential more in the second half?
Mike DeWalt:
No. I think we’ve seen weaker -- I’m going to use the U.S. region as the example here. We’ve seen certainly a decline in orders in business there. We’ve actually even seen some decline in part sales in those regions. So, anecdotally I would tell you, I think we are seeing impact of lower oil prices in our construction business today.
Andrew Casey:
Okay. Thanks, Mike. And then if I could follow-up on the pricing question specific to construction, you gave a litany of things. Is it your sense that full-year pricing may be more like flat coming off the strong Q1 performance because you have more difficult comps related to Brazil construction, the shift to BCP and then what you describe the competitive marketplace?
Mike DeWalt:
Yes. When we did our year-end release, we said that we expected price realization to be favourable, but less than about 0.5%. And by and large, I think that is still the case. I mean, the first quarter was in positive territory. I think we expect to end the year in positive territory, but I mean pretty small numbers. By and large, if you think around 0.5% plus or minus, you're probably in the ballpark.
Andrew Casey:
Okay. Thank you very much.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question is coming from Andrew Kaplowitz. Please announce your affiliation, then pose your question.
Andrew Kaplowitz.:
It’s Barclays. Good morning, guys. Nice quarter.
Doug Oberhelman:
Good morning, Andy.
Andrew Kaplowitz:
Mike, can you talk a little bit more about your backlog movements within the quarter? You noted an improvement in locomotive backlog and in your segment commentary you talked about a large locomotive project in Asia. So can you talk about what drove your locomotive backlog? Is that sort of the ending of the North American locomotives or is that more international related growth?
Mike DeWalt:
Okay. So the Asia comment in the -- around the quarter was locomotive shipments can be kind of lumpy. We had a decent size order for multiple locomotives go out to a customer in Australia in the quarter. So that was the kind of genesis of the Asia comment in the quarter. In terms of the backlog, we during the quarter took an order from one of the North American railroads for new locomotives and what the railroads do is they will place an order. And it's usually for multiple years and you'll produce portions of it kind of over the course of the contract. And we had an order placed in the first quarter from North American railroad.
Andrew Kaplowitz:
Got it .But it’s a long-term contract when it comes down to it?
Mike DeWalt:
Sure. Yes, absolutely.
Andrew Kaplowitz:
Okay. So just shifting gears you increased restructuring cost at $250 million, up from $150 million with the increase primarily related to facilities that produce mining products. Can you talk about your decision process when it comes to restructuring Resource Industries? You disclosed in your 10-K that you have got 36 mining related facilities at the end of 2014. So how do you gauge when to take action regarding these facilities? And can you talk about the payback period and benefits you expect in your recent actions?
Brad Halverson:
Yes.
Doug Oberhelman:
It’s Doug here. Brad just before you do that, I’d like to come back to that locomotive order that Mike mentioned one of the big six in North America that was a tier 4 order for our new emissions locomotive, which will be available in 2016. And there has been a lot of discussion around our tier 4 readiness and that was a big order for us and we’ll start shipping at '16 our long-term contract. It starts pretty quickly as soon as we give that technology ready which as I said it will be next year. Sorry Brad.
Brad Halverson:
No, no, it’s good. Hi, Andy, it’s Brad.
Andrew Kaplowitz:
Hi, Brad.
Brad Halverson:
Let me talk a little bit about this. There has been a lot of discussion about it. And we’ve been fairly active in terms of the studies that we do here. We’ll go through a process where we’ll -- we are cyclical, we’ve seen this before. On the one side we want to be ready for the upturn. Our business model is to produce quality products, lowest on operating costs, produces parts and service from us and the dealers and repeat business. And so on that side given the fact that our sales can move fairly dramatically through the cycles, we want to be ready to be able to meet that demand. But on the other side, it’s absolutely clear and a good question that this current economic environment presents a lot of opportunities. So we've been at this since 2013. In fact, if you can add up what we've done in the last three years, including what we plan to do in '15, we will incur roughly $900 million of restructuring cost. We’ve closed or downsized roughly 20 facilities, about 5 million of square feet during that period again through '15 and about 15,000 employees which is unfortunate. All-in then, if you look at the benefits we mentioned to you before that we believe after '15 the benefits per year would be $400 million to $500 million per year with what we've done which we’ve had higher benefits on than we anticipated and what we have in place will be at the high end or exceed that in terms of our benefits per year. And so it's a robust process, it’s done by our product source playing group with involvement across all the facilities all the regions. There has been some discussion about big facilities. It’s very hard to close the single source Decatur facility in terms of the mining trucks, it would be the same for each periods. So those things just don't dollar out in terms of return to shareholders and we do a net present value calculation through that. So I would say that we're continuing to look, we’ve added a few more in the mining space. If you go back to 2012, we were $66 billion in sales. We are $50 billion now. We’ve lost roughly $16 billion, 75% of that is mining and we’ve held at 25% decremental pull-through right in that range. And so there’s a lot of things going on that support that, including lean and material cost. But I would say that we are pretty happy with that pull-through over that three-year period. We've done that with little price and higher quality and growing market share. So we are not saying we won’t have more to do, but that process is ongoing and we’ve been pretty active in it.
Andrew Kaplowitz:
Okay. Thanks, Brad.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question is coming from David Raso. Please pronounce your affiliation, then pose your question.
David Raso:
Evercore ISI. Good morning. I’ll keep it pretty simple. I am just trying to figure out the cadence of earnings for the year. The first quarter was $1.86 ex the restructuring and almost never is the second quarter not as high or higher than the first quarter or maybe once in the last 20 years and that was a quarter when you are just starting to buy Bucyrus. So even if I pull out the gain on the first quarter, call it $1.72, if the second quarter has also been $1.72 or higher to do your full year, the back half of year has to be doing $0.70, $0.75 per quarter. Is there conservatism in the guidance or does it drop-off that sharply?
Brad Halverson:
No, what I would tell you is if you look at our internal forecast of the three quarters, they are not -- I mean, they are very close to each other. So we see it beginning in the second quarter -- the second quarter we would expect to be lower than the first quarter on sales. And to your point that, that almost -- that doesn't happen very often. But our forecast for this year is second quarter actually lower than the first quarter on both sales and profit not much different through the rest of the year. I mean, there are small pluses and minuses. But by and large, you can look at our full year, take out our first quarter and think about the remainder as close to what we are thinking.
David Raso:
All right. I mean, I am just trying to figure if sourcing in the second quarter is dropping to call it $1.20 or something like that and the last two quarters are $1. The dropoff from energy and some locomotives, what’s the offset in the second half of the year to make up for some of that? You still have the earnings dropping off, I am just trying to understand -- they drop off pretty sharply, so what are some of the things we are expecting to be better?
Brad Halverson:
Yes. So a couple of things. So you are correct in the idea that particularly for reciprocating engines, we will have fairly sizable declines in the second half of the year, actually beginning in the -- probably beginning sometime in the second quarter and continuing on through the year. But there are other parts of the business like solar where the timing of the year is, usually the second half is higher than the first half and we certainly see that happening this year. We have -- I think Marine sales up a bit higher in the back half of the year then the front half of the year and much of the rest of the business is actually reasonably -- in fact, I just look at this morning, kind of almost anticipating this question. The rest of the year for most of the rest of the businesses are by and large relatively stable as we go through the year. So the drop-off will be more oil, but it will be mitigated a little bit by timing in some of the segments and a little bit of an increase in marine.
David Raso:
And then it's not related to that, the inventory you mentioned a bit of a tickdown through the rest of the year. Can you help quantify at company level as well as dealer level?
Doug Oberhelman:
Yeah. If I look at company level, I’m going to be a little bit more vague because we have continuing benefits from our lean manufacturing journey above and beyond where we were last year baked in. We’ve got, I will say aggressive goals in our forecast. So, I would say, without giving a number, we’re looking for, kind of a cadence of improvement as result of that or decline in inventory as we go through the year. Not massive -- I mean, certainly not like we had in the fourth quarter of last year but our forecast would reflect modest declines in each of the next few quarters.
David Raso:
So the dealer inventory for the year I think --
Doug Oberhelman:
The dealer inventory for the year?
David Raso:
About a $1 billion?
Doug Oberhelman:
Yeah. Sure. Yeah. I don’t think that we’ve given a number but we added the inventory in the first quarter. Our forecast would reflect all of that coming out, plus a little bit more.
David Raso:
Okay. That’s helpful.
Doug Oberhelman:
It’s a case where our sales for the year are coming down from 55 to 50 and not all of that is oil. Some of that maybe oil related but it’s still in construction. So, I think that we will probably end the year a bit less than we were last year. Mining inventory is going to continue to come down little bit this year, not as much as last year. But it’s going to continue edging its way down like it did in the first quarter.
David Raso:
All right. I appreciate the detail. Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question is coming from Robert Wertheimer with Vertical Research. Please announce affiliation and poise your question.
Robert Wertheimer:
It’s Vertical Research. Good morning, everybody.
Doug Oberhelman:
Good morning.
Robert Wertheimer:
So, I guess the question is on capital allocation. The commentary on share repurchase in the press release was balanced I guess with that and other opportunities. I'm just curious if just given the maybe bounding opportunities in oil and gas, I'm not sure, whether it makes, whether we should expect you to cut back on share buybacks for a couple of quarters just in case something develops? Or how you think about staging that, if you'd buy something and then reassure shares, how are you thinking about that?
Doug Oberhelman:
I’ll take that one. Doug Oberhelman here. We really haven’t changed our priorities of cash at all. If anything, the top priority to maintain the balance sheet is I think becoming more important to us as the uncertainty around us continues on, if not increases. We reported that we are about I guess 37% or so on debt to debt and equity. That’s being coming, trending down and we will trend that down throughout the year. We bought $400 million of shares in the first quarter, which I think is a reasonable planning rate for the rest of the year, assuming our plan holds up. We will end the -- I have no doubt we’ll end the year with cash, a lot of cash, as we did in the first quarter over $7 billion. I think in this area of uncertainty, where day-to-day one never knows what going to happen and having recently been burned on that in 2008 with a big downturn and a weak balance sheet that’s where we are going to be. The other thing and I've said this before is that we are continually looking for growth opportunities. And that strong balance sheet allows us lots of flexibility for growth, for protection, maintain our dividend and modestly increase it. As we’ve said before buying shares back. But I would say that we’re in the driver seat with cash generation, with our inventory turnover arising, our lean manufacturing freeing up cash. And as these other priorities work through, share buyback will likely over time continue to be important thing for us. But in 2015, we’re just planning right now on that $4 million until we kind of per quarter or so given the uncertainties and the challenges we see everyday in the marketplace.
Robert Wertheimer:
That's wonderful. Thank you, Doug. If I can ask my follow-up, Mike, I think mentioned that oil and gas in the drilling and completions and Doug, I believe you mentioned that solar looks okay. Is there any risk or is it long enough into this downturn to see if there's a risk to parts, all our mining not just in sort of fracing, completion drilling but just production pipeline and anything else? Do you anticipate right now that this is isolated to drilling and completion or could it spillover either on pricing or volume on the rest of it? Thank you.
Mike DeWalt:
You never say never about anything. But generally speaking, if you are going to produce and you’re going to move things through oil -- oil through a pipeline or you need the equipment to work to do that. If there is hesitation, if there is customer maybe like mining they have the possibility that could push out things like overhauls and rebuilds that potentially could be a negative. I would say, we’re not really seeing a lot of that right now outside of kind of the drilling and fracing were activity is off. Remember though and I think these needs to be said, a lot of our business in oil and gas, probably most of our business in oil and gas is gas. And so far that's held up pretty well. Demand for gas is good and the compression business is doing pretty well. So oil is just a one piece of our oil and gas business.
Robert Wertheimer:
Thank you, Mike.
Doug Oberhelman:
Well. With that, I think we’re going to wrap it up. We are at the top of the hour. Thank you for joining us and we’ll talk to you again next quarter.
Operator:
Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. This does conclude today's conference call. You may disconnect your phone lines at this time and have a wonderful day. Thank you for your participation.
Executives:
Mike DeWalt - VP of Finance Services Doug Oberhelman - Chairman and CEO Brad Halverson - President and CFO
Analysts:
Andrew Kaplowitz - Barclays Capital Nicole DeBlase - Morgan Stanley Robert Wertheimer - Vertical Research Partners Joel Tiss - BMO Capital Markets Ross Gilardi - BofA Merrill Lynch Kwame Webb - Morningstar Ann Duignan - JPMorgan Vishal Shah - Deutsche Bank David Raso - Evercore ISI Jamie Cook - Credit Suisse
Operator:
Good morning, ladies and gentlemen and welcome to the Caterpillar Year End Conference Call. At this time, all participants have been placed on a listen-only mode and the floor will be open for your questions and comments following the presentation. Now I’d like to turn the floor over to your host, Mike DeWalt. Sir, the floor is yours.
Mike DeWalt:
Thank you very much and good morning everyone and welcome to our year end conference call. I'm Mike DeWalt, Caterpillar's Vice President of Finance Services. On the call today, I'm pleased to have our Chairman and CEO, Doug Oberhelman; and Group President and CFO, Brad Halverson. This call is copyrighted by Caterpillar Inc. and any use, recording or transmission of any portion of the call without the expressed written consent of Caterpillar is strictly prohibited. If you'd like a copy of today's call transcript, we will be posting it in the Investors section of our caterpillar.com website, in the section labeled Results Webcast. This morning we'll be discussing forward-looking information that involves risks, uncertainties and assumptions that could cause our actual results to differ materially from the forward-looking information. A discussion of some of those factors that either individually or in the aggregate could make actual results differ materially from our projections that can be found in our cautionary statements under Item 1A, or Risk Factors of our Form 10-K filed with the SEC in February of 2014 and with our 10-Q filed with the SEC in August of 2014. And it’s also in the forward-looking statements language in today’s release. In addition to that, there is a reconciliation of non-GAAP measures and that can also be found in our financial release which again is on our caterpillar.com website. Okay, with that let's get started. In this morning we'll be reviewing our financial results for the quarter, for the full year of 2014, and we’ll spend some time on our 2015 outlook. Now as I do each of those, I just want to go through the major themes right now. For the quarter, sales were about as expected but we were disappointed with lower profit in the quarter than our outlook. The significant decline in inventory in the quarter more so than we anticipated was a large contributing factor to that. For the full year of 2014, the major theme continues to be around execution and better profit per share than 2013 and the outlook that we started the year with. We’re pleased with what we've accomplished in 2014 given the continued weak economic conditions in most of the world, and the declining commodity prices. Now for the 2015 outlook, well it's shaping up to be a much tougher year than we were expecting when we went through our preliminary view of 2015 with you all last October. It's been definitely a developing story as oil prices have continued to decline. No doubt it will be a major topic of discussion when we get to the QA in a few minutes. With that, quick recap of the theme, let's start with the review of the fourth quarter. Sales and revenues were $14.2 billion and that was close to last year actually down about 1% from $14.4 billion in the fourth quarter of 2013. Profit per share all-in was $1.23 and $1.35 excluding restructuring costs. And that's down from a $1.54 all-in and a $1.68 excluding restructuring costs in the fourth quarter of 2013. Quarter-to-quarter restructuring costs were a little lower in 2014 about $100 million in the fourth quarter versus about $130 million in Q4 of 2013. So not a lot of change there. Excluding restructuring costs, profit per share from the fourth quarter of the year ago to this fourth quarter declined $0.33 and there were several things that contributed to the lower profit. First, we had an absence of several favorable items from the fourth quarter of 2013. We had $115 million of LIFO benefits in the fourth quarter of 2013. We had a favorable legal settlement that was close to $70 million. We had gains on the sales securities and currency gains in our financial products segments. And in the fourth quarter of 2013, financial products also had a favorable adjustment to their allowance. Now, they had another favorable allowance in 2014 but it was quite a bit less. Now in addition to the absence of those favorable items, we also had higher employee incentive compensation, that was about $110 million up in the quarter and that was because our incentive compensation metrics for the full year turned out better than we expected when we set them at the beginning of the year. Excluding incentive compensation, SG&A [R&D] [ph] combined were up in the quarter, but were down for the full year. While R&D was about flat for 2014, we'll talk about this in a bit and the outlook that we are expecting have some increase in 2015. We also had unfavorable inventory absorption in the quarter and that's a result of a more significant inventory reduction in the fourth quarter of 2014 than the fourth quarter of 2013. Now, we also had some positives in the quarter. Income tax versus Q4 of 2013 was positive about $0.11 per share, material costs were favorable and price realization while up less than 1% was a small positive. Profit per share also benefited from a lower share account and that was a result of share repurchases in 2014. So that's the fourth quarter versus the fourth quarter of 2013. Let's take a look at how we did versus the outlook. And we ended nearly spot on with sales and revenues but profit per share was $0.12 lower than the outlook that we provided last October. We did have one positive item in the quarter and that was the passage of the tax extenders. The major 2014 benefit for us was the R&D tax credit included in that. More than offsetting in the favorable tax, we had some negatives. The most significant being the impact of negative inventory absorption. We were expecting a small inventory reduction in the fourth quarter and we actually ended up taking inventory down $1.1 billion. That resulted in a substantial cost absorption headwind versus our outlook. While it was a hit to profit, we want lower inventory, we've been working to reduce it, and we’re happy to have it lower. Now in addition, price realization and sales mix were not quite as positive as we had expected and we had modest hedging losses. None of those were what I would describe as major and all on their own but they all kind of where in the same direction. When you forecast you almost never get everything right, and even when you’re close in total, there are always puts and takes. In the fourth quarter other than the R&D tax credit, most of the elements of our forecast went the other way. In summary, Q4 was right on with sales. We had a major reduction in inventory and we like that but it continued to lower than expected profit. Okay, that's a quick one through the fourth quarter versus the outlook. And before we get into the 2015 outlook, I would just like to do a quick recap of the full year 2014 and to help put it in perspective, I'm going to back in time a little bit to 2012 to set the stage. In 2012 that was before the substantial decline in mining, our sales and revenues were about $66 billion. And as we ended 2012, we expected 2013 to be down because of mining and we got that in a lot more than we expected. We revised 2013 down every quarter in 2013, looking for a bottom in mining. We ended 2013 with sales down $10 billion from 2012. At the end of 2013, we would have liked to predict the sales increase and recovery in 2014 but we started with the view but that wasn't in the cards for 2014 with mining remaining weak and the global economy continuing with the lower par growth. We expected as a result 2014 sales to be about flat for 2013. And that’s actually about what happened. The bad news is weren't surprised by a large rebound in the global economy, the good news is we called it pretty close to what happened and didn’t get surprised with continuing bad news. As we started 2014, we were expecting a relatively flat top line and relatively flat profit per share excluding restructuring costs. We accomplished that in a bit more. Excluding restructuring, profit per share was $6.38 and that's up from 597 in 2013 again excluding restructuring. And it was better than our original outlook at 585. We also did better than we expected with operating cash flow. Our machinery energy and transportation operating cash flow was $7.5 billion. In 2014, in fact two of the best three years we've ever had were 2013 and 2014. That helped to enable us repurchase $2 billion of Caterpillar stock in 2013 and another $4.2 billion in 2014 and it helped us - help set us up for increases in the dividend. We took the dividend up 15% in 2013 and 17% in 2014. Now in addition to the financial performance, we improved inventory terms in 2014. We improved our market position for CAT machines as well in fact it was our fourth consecutive year. And we’ve done that by holding price realization low. 2014 was another year well below 1% and we've done it by providing customers with great products. While our Tier 4 introductions aren't over, we are very pleased with what's been introduced so far and customer and dealer feedback has been positive. Quality is also helping. In 2014 it was the fourth consecutive year that the quality of the machines that we delivered to our customers has improved. I already mentioned better inventory terms and that was great. We’re on a Lean journey and certainly we have more room to improve there. I'll end up this recap of 2014 with safety and we probably don't really talk enough about it but it really is a high priority. And for the last decade we've made steady progress on improving safety and I'm happy to say that improvement continued in 2014. So, all-in-all fourth quarter profit was disappointing but 2014 overall was a pretty good year financially particularly considering the economic and industry dynamics we had to work with. Okay, with that let's go through the 2015 outlook. As I'm sure you picked up from our financial release this morning, we are more negative on prospects for 2015 than we were three month ago when we provided you with our preliminary view of 2015 sales and revenues. In recent weeks with commodity price declines, our view of 2015 has certainly been a work in progress and we've just recently finalized the outlook. Back in October, we expected sales and revenues with the flat to slightly up. Our current view is that sales and revenues will be about 50 million and that's down over 9% from 2014. Without a doubt, the impact of substantially lower oil and gas prices is the most significant reason we're expecting lower sales in 2015. From mid-October to today, oil prices have dropped from the mid-80s to the high 40s and that's off prices that were around 100 for most of the first half of last year. With the oil this low, we expect substantial reductions in producers CapEx and that it will be negative for our sales. Now I'm going to take a minute to put what we do in our oil and gas into some perspective for you. Most of our oil and gas related sales are in our energy and transportation segment. And to scale that a bit, in 2014 about a third of energy and transportation, 22 billion in sales were directly related to oil and gas. The oil and gas exposure is however diverse. They're on the front-end with engines for drilling, engines transmission and pressure pumps for well servicing. We have engines that go into compressor sets for gas gathering, we’ve engines and turbines that move oil and gas along the pipeline. And our turbines are used extensively on offshore production pipelines. Now in addition to those direct exposures in energy and transportation, there are some indirect exposures that are real but a little more difficult to put a specific number on. For example, we saw marine engines and some go into vessels that service offshore oil and gas platforms on the rail business with services and locomotives and oil transport has become an increasing business for our rail customers. In terms of the 2015 outlook, we believe the direct part of oil and gas that will be hurt the earliest and most significantly will be drilling and well servicing, particularly in the second half of the year. At this point because of the scale and long term nature of projects to use turbines, we don’t expect much impact there in 2015. However, if oil and gas prices stay this depressed throughout 2015, there could be a negative impact for the turbine business after 2015. So those are the most direct impacts. Now there are other indirect impacts from substantially lower prices that we think can play in 2015. In countries and in fact in some areas of the U.S., where oil production is significant for government entities and local economies, it will likely be a negative for the sales of construction equipment and our electric power generation business. In some cases, it can be fairly direct like building roads to service new wells, or it can be very indirect like construction spending in a country, where the government relies on oil revenue to fund government spending. Order of magnitude roughly half of our expected year-over-year decline in sales is from these - both direct and indirect impacts from the fairly dramatic decline in oil prices. Now in addition to the impact of oil and gas, there are several other factors that are contributing to the decline in the sales and revenues outlook. Year-over-year we expect the stronger dollar to be a sales headwind. Commodity prices in mining have also taken another leg down over the past few months. For example, when we provided our preliminary outlook last October, copper was still over $3 account. Today it's in the mid $250. Order rates for our resource industry segment have been reasonably stable at low level. But the continued decline in commodity prices and continued efficiency improvements, by our mining customers have caused us to lower our sales estimate for resource industries in 2015. With weakness in agriculture, we’re also expecting lower sales of industrial engines and we expect our rail business to be down in 2015 after a great year in 2014. Now that's not a new development, we anticipated that and discussed that last October. And our expectation for the construction industry in China is also lower. Our sales over the past year have held up better in China than the industry overall but with lower expectations for China construction, we think our 2015 sales in China will be down. Okay, that's a run through of 2015 sales, the direct and some of the indirect impacts from dramatically lower oil, lower mining sales, or stronger dollar, lower sales in our rail business and weakness in construction outside the U.S. including China. So let's shift over to profit. We’re expecting 460 a share all-in for 2015 and 475 excluding restructuring. We’re expecting to continue with restructuring actions in 2015 but with less cost than 2014. In 2014, restructuring costs were $441 million and we’re expecting around another $150 million in 2015. Now excluding the restructuring, profit per share was expected to decline from 638 to 475. And that’s a drop of about $1.63. I’m going to through the headwinds and tailwinds in a moment, but before I do that, I'd just like to put a drop and profit in perspective with the sales. Much of the sales change between 2014 and 2015 is related to oil and gas and mining. And those are two areas with higher than average variable margins. Despite that, our $4.75 per share profit outlook again excluding restructuring reflects the decremental operating margin close to 25% and the impact of the higher tax rate that's mostly because the R&D tax credit wasn't extended past 2014. Now our target range for decremental operating margin is 25% to 30% and our 2015 has us closer to the bottom end of that which is good. But as you might expect, there are plenty of pluses and minuses that go into that. On the positive side, we expect lower incentive compensation in 2015. In 2014 incentive compensation was higher than target and that's because we exceeded our incentive metrics that we've set earlier in the year. We're expecting variable manufacturing cost to be favorable in 2015. And that's a result of our continuing work to remove costs and improve efficiency and lower material costs. Now this might be counterintuitive for some but the stronger dollar was negative for our sales is positive for costs overall and that's because of our non-US operations and our material purchases outside the U.S. and overall that's expected to be a positive for profit. And we're planning another small but positive contribution from price realization. We’re expecting an increase of less than half a percent. Now the headwinds to 2015 profit include higher R&D expense. Now for the company in total, I’m going back a couple of years here again. For the company in total, we lowered R&D 17% in 2013 from 2012 and that was in response to the decline in sales. Now excluding the impact of incentive compensation, R&D remained at about that level in 2014. In 2015, we’re planning to increase R&D. We’re in a very competitive and changing world and products and services do matter. We understand the need for profit in a short term but we also need to invest in the future and that's the main reason R&D is increasing. It's primarily for new and updated products, and more work on new technologies, that have applications across the company. In addition to R&D, cost absorption from lower inventory is also expected to be a headwind. With the decline in sales, we expect, more inventory reduction in 2015 than we had in 2014. And while that's a positive for cash flow, it will have a negative impact on costs. And as I mentioned a minute ago, with a greater proportion of our expected decline in sales occurring in the higher margin products, we anticipate an unfavorable mixed impact from sales on our operating module. We also have higher pension expense for our defined benefit plans and that's a result of lower interest rates at the end of 2015 and an revision in the estimate of lifespans for the folks in our plans. Okay, that's a run through of what we expect for 2015. The bottom line for us is - in our business is that it has been and continues to be a tough environment for many in the industries that we're in. Mining is weak and operating below what we think a normal level is and far below the prior peak. From an industry volume standpoint, North American construction was better than it was a couple years ago, there is still about 15% below the prior peak. Europe is about over 40% of its prior peak and China is still 60% of its prior peak. So we aim to grow in all those areas. Energy and transportation, it's a diverse business serving oil and gas, transportation, power generation and industrial applications. It's been a great business for us and we’re expecting another good year in 2015. It will be good but not quiet as good as 2014. Based on our outlook for 2015 sales and revenues, 2015 is going to be our third consecutive year of sales decline. And to put that in some perspective, that's happened only one other time in the history of our company and that was during the great depression in 1930, 1931 and 1932. Overall, we think we have done pretty well with the economic and industry climate we have to work with. We have improved our market position and our operations but we would certainly like to see a better global economy. So that's it. And with that, we are ready for questions.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] We will take our first question from Andrew Kaplowitz with Barclays. Your line is live.
Andrew Kaplowitz:
Good morning, guys. Mike, I think you did a good job on the puts and takes of the 2015 profit guidance, but let me push you a little bit here. Like, you talked about being in the range that you usually have 25% to 30% decrementals; but you are enjoying that $400 million tailwind from stock comp expense. We've talked about restructuring benefits starting to ramp up in 2015, and I'm not sure how much that's going to help. Then obviously you mentioned the stronger dollar helping you. I know you've talked about mix and I know you've talked about inventory destocking. But maybe you could quantify something like inventory destocking or -- what I'm really trying to figure out, Mike, is if there is an element of conservatism at all in this guidance.
Mike DeWalt:
You know we try to be prudent. There are always upsides and downsides in the forecast. We always attempt to try if we can to pick up middle reasonable ground. You did pick out currency as a modest positive and you are right, the incentive comp is positive as well. But - and on the restructuring, we do expect favorable variable cost next year and above and beyond just material cost. So we do have some improvement baked in for that. But we do have again I am just a little bit repeating what you said. Mix is negative. We've got a $5 billion decline in sales and that is I think - between that and the continuation of our Lean journey, we are likely to take inventory down more next year and we have somewhere around 15% to 18% negative hit to profit from cost absorption on that. So that's going to be negative for the year. R&D is probably not going to be quite back to the 2012 levels but we do need to fund some more. We've got a ton of exciting programs for the future that we need to get on with now and so we’ve planned to do some funding of that. So it - again the two tailwinds are step and the incentive compensation in a little bit from currency to the bottom line.
Andrew Kaplowitz:
Okay Mike.
Mike DeWalt:
I don’t feel like I added a lot more for you there but…
Andrew Kaplowitz:
Is it possible to quantify restructuring benefit that you expect? You've given us in the past, is it possible to quantify that?
Mike DeWalt:
For next year…
Andrew Kaplowitz:
2015.
Mike DeWalt:
Actually after this last decline in volume for us, we are reworking the detailed plans but before that we were looking at somewhere around - increment of somewhere around $100 million.
Andrew Kaplowitz:
Okay. Then just shifting gears, can you give us more color on construction, global construction demand in general? At least what's baked into your forecast in 2015? Do you believe North American construction will be up in 2015? Or at least what's in your guidance for that geography.
Mike DeWalt:
So if we look at sales for construction, we just talked about it generically regionally. We are looking to be up in the U.S. next year, North America mostly the U.S. Probably a little less than we thought before the oil price dropped. So we are looking ahead. There is some headwinds in the oil producing areas, Texas, South Dakota, Pennsylvania. So U.S. is still a positive but probably not quite as positive as we thought before. Almost everyplace else in the world to some degree negative. We are still not getting any decent economic growth in Europe. The developing countries Brazil, China are still let’s just say challenged. We are actually expecting a little bit lower GDP growth in China next year than we had in – or in 2015 than we had in 2014. So we are looking for the - outside the U.S. construction to be weak. We also have quite a bit of the sales impact from the stronger dollar showing up in construction as well. So it will bear most of the brunt of that. We’ve taken a stab at trying to estimate the impact of lower oil in the oil producing regions. I will say that that's probably - that's tough to forecast. We don’t exactly know what the Saudis, the Nigerians are going to do, but just using those two oil exporting countries as an example. There are certainly many more. We don’t exactly know what they are going to do but we’ve taken our best shot. So we’ve taken sales out of those regions as well. But I think if you were to combine it into kind of nutshell, we are looking down 5% to 10%. Currency is a chunk of that outside the U.S. generally. Oil producing regions weaker, U.S. not including, oil is stronger.
Andrew Kaplowitz:
Okay. Thanks Mike.
Operator:
We will take our next question from Nicole DeBlase with Morgan Stanley. Your line is live.
Nicole DeBlase:
Yes, thanks guys, good morning. Maybe just starting a little bit with oil, I'm just curious what exactly you are hearing from your customers. I think if we looked back to 2010 it took several quarters for this impact to start bleeding through to your results. So I'm just curious how soon we'll start to see the weakness come through, both in your retail sales and in Cat's reported results.
Mike DeWalt:
Yeah that’s actually a great question Nicole because if you look at the 2014 fourth quarter or December even retail sales statistics, oil and gas was still pretty strong and it will probably continue that way for a while. I mean we are selling out of the backlog. So what we will be seeing first is – and we are actually starting to see it now. So I guess this is what we are hearing from customers is a decline in order rates for oil and gas. It probably won’t show up in our sales for at least a quarter maybe a bit more than a quarter in the second half of the year particularly for re-step engines, piston-based engines for drilling and well servicing. Our sales are likely to fall off quite dramatically for that kind of product in this – certainly in the second half of the year.
Nicole DeBlase:
Okay, got it. That makes sense. Then I guess maybe a somewhat philosophical question. How much does a strong US dollar concern Cat generally, given that you have such a strong base of sales in international markets? And to that point, are you seeing increased competitive intensity yet from Japanese or European OEMs?
Mike DeWalt:
That's a great question too. So generically, what we’ve done over the last I don’t know 30 years basically is try to diversify our cost base to try to help it match up a little bit better with sales. If you take 2015 for example, the stronger dollar, as we convert all those sales from local currencies around the world and the dollars is going to translate into fewer dollars, the flipside of that is we have substantial manufacturing operations outside the U.S. and that largely mitigates the profit impact. So we have in the case of stronger dollar a decent sizeable negative impact on sales with a positive impact on cost. Usually it’s not too big of an impact one way or the other on profit although it can depend on which currency moves and how much.
Doug Oberhelman:
Yeah. It's Doug Oberhelman here. I will just add a little bit broader perspective on that thing. Rising dollar and I will expect that 2015 would see more of that will not be good for U.S. manufacturing nor the U.S. economy. How that is offset against the lower oil, diesel, gasoline price, I don’t know how it worked out but certainly anybody producing in Japan, the U.K. or Europe particularly Germany is going to have, it has had quite an advantage over their American competitors and I would expect that they have an impact on the U.S. in some way. We worked hard to as Mike said diversify our manufacturing footprint. We are large exporters and have a large cost base in Japan, Europe, U.K. as well as we are taking advantage of that, as you mentioned, works its way through to the bottom line. But overall I think it’s a very good positive for U.S. manufacturing unit. The policy issue I think is concerning.
Nicole DeBlase:
Okay, great. I really appreciate the commentary, Doug and Mike. I will pass it on.
Operator:
We’ll take our next question from our Robert Wertheimer. Please announce your affiliation and pose your question.
Robert Wertheimer:
Thanks, Mike. Just wanted to follow-up on oil and gas. Obviously you've taken a big whack to the drilling and the completions, the pressure pumping. But have you heard anything on production platforms on maintenance for solar turbines in the Gulf or in Nigeria or wherever? Have you factored any weakness in either production or maintenance into the account -- into the outlook? And if not, do you expect any could develop later into 2016?
Mike DeWalt:
I think from a service standpoint, no. We haven’t been hearing that. Once the platform is up in producing, we've got all that fixed cost sunk into it. So, you know it’s likely to continue to produce. So, no and even on, turbo machinery projects not just service for solar, the nature of that business is rather a long term projects. By the time, we produce a turbine, the project is pretty far along. So, considering a lead times there, and the kind of projects that are there, you tend not to get big short term swings. It's not like somebody is coming in and buying something out of inventory of the shelf. So, we really don’t see much of an impact with solar for 2015. But, and I mentioned this a bit in my lengthy preamble, that if oil prices and gas prices stay this low, so large not immune it’s just delayed.
Robert Wertheimer:
All right, perfect. That was very helpful, Mike. Thank you. Then just a quick one. It seems as though 1Q will still have some deliveries on the 3500s or whatever to the drilling and pressure pumping. Should we assume that the back half of the year has basically almost nothing in it? I mean, the fleet has grown tremendously over the last 10 years. Maybe replacement sales continue to grow. I'm not sure if we should consider the back half to be the bottom or not on the drilling and completion side. And I will stop; thanks.
Mike DeWalt:
Yeah. Certainly won’t be the first quarter or second quarter. It will probably start tailing off as we get towards the end of the first half. But yeah, we've had actually some cancellations, so the backlog has come down. There’s been some cancellations, but that seems to have tailed off. So, we're scheduled out reasonably for the first quarter. We think some of that is, if you have a well that's getting drilled, you’ll want to frac it. So, we think that what’s in the order book here, certainly for the first quarter is probably going to continue. But orders have largely dried up for that kind of business. So, the back half of the year is going to drop a lot for the drilling and well servicing.
Doug Oberhelman:
Probably not so much gas compression. It’s really not for the turbine projects but you know, for the drilling and well servicing around oil and particular, yes.
Robert Wertheimer:
Thank you.
Operator:
We will take our next question from Joel Tiss. Please announce your affiliation and pose your question.
Joel Tiss:
Hi, I'm with BMO. Instead of beating up energy anymore, I wonder if you can give us a sense of why the resource industry dealer inventory went up a little bit, it sounds like in the press release. I just wonder if you're seeing anything positive there, or just what's going on.
Mike DeWalt:
No. Actually dealer inventory went down. It just didn’t go down quite as much as it did in the fourth quarter of 2013. It's a very challenged business. If you look at order rates from customers, they’ve been, they bounce around a little bit here and there month to month but if you look at the moving average, they’ve been pretty stable here recently. But it's actually been below our sales level. We've been selling a bit out of the backlog. The backlog in mining is getting to a point where we just don’t have the capability to continue to do that. So, in light of copper coming down around 250, iron ore prices severely depressed and coal prices down, we’re taking a cautious view of 2014 for mining. We were hoping that 2014 was the bottom but given everything else that is going on in the world, at least our estimate of China GDP being a little lower next year than this year, I think the prospects for a rebound in 2015 are just probably not there. So, that's negative. There's also probably a small negative in there - I don't want to overplay this, but we do sell into the oil sands in Canada and we think there is not a - in the scheme of next year’s business, it's not huge but we do think there is a little bit of risk there as well.
Joel Tiss:
I wonder if you can share with us the overall company OEM versus aftermarket at this point, or over the course of 2015. I think it's a fuzzed-up enough number where you wouldn't really be giving anything away, but you'd help us understand the resiliency of Cat's earnings a little better.
Mike DeWalt:
What I would tell you is that - as we talked about this outlook change, I will try to frame in a couple of different ways. What are the causes, like oil prices and that goes across the segment. And then we try to give you a view by segment. RI down 10%, E&T 10% to 15%, construction 5% to 10%. But your point about original equipment and parts is a good one. I won't give you a complete split, but I would tell you that we would expect aftermarket parts to be pretty flat next year. With this year we’re not taking that down. So the decline for the most part is coming out of new equipment.
Joel Tiss:
But you can't give us any sense if it's half of the overall business or anything?
Mike DeWalt:
No we've never done that Joel and probably not going to start today.
Joel Tiss:
All right. Thank you very much.
Operator:
We'll take our next question from Ross Gilardi. Please announce your affiliation and pose your question.
Ross Gilardi:
Yes, good morning, Bank of America. Gentlemen, I'm just comparing your comments on construction to what we were hearing from the large rental houses, who are substantially more positive. Obviously your business model is different, and also for Cat Rental the fleet mix is different. But do you think dealers are losing marketshare to the bigger rental houses who've improved their footprint, are getting better at servicing the national account customers, and just their overall service offerings dramatically in recent years? Anything you feel like you need to do from just a business model standpoint to deal with them?
Mike DeWalt:
Well, first off, Ross, I will start by saying we’re actually pretty constructive about U.S. construction. So we have U.S. construction actually going up. I think probably the major rental houses that you’re talking about our U.S. base are probably not feeding back what - what’s going on, Brazil, the rest of Latin America, China, Europe. So, that is the - that plus currency impacts which there is also not seeing are, two principle reasons that construction would be down next year. So I think from a North American standpoint, honestly I don’t know, what the rental houses are actually telling you in terms of volume. But we’re up probably, mid-single digits in North America construction despite a little headwind we think from oil. I think the dealers are actually doing a pretty good job on rental. It's been an increasing piece of their business. It’s a big focus that particularly in the U.S. and Europe, its how a lot of business gets done. It’s a key element of our across-the-table initiative and we’ll probably do more. So, it’s a big focus. I think if you parse out how we’re describing the construction around the world, probably not that far off with what the rental houses are saying.
Ross Gilardi:
Yes, okay. I mean, I realize there are big geographic differences in your overall footprint. I was more isolating just the commentary around North America; but thanks for clarifying that. And then given what you're saying about demand and the overall environment for Caterpillar in your various end markets, what are you thinking now about capacity rationalization across your footprint right now? Should we be expecting to see some bigger facility closures as 2015 unfolds, to better align supply and demand for the medium to longer term?
Mike DeWalt:
Yeah. You know, we're -- how I say this with the right tone here? We're a cyclical company. Our sales in these industries as we've seen by mining and certainly oil and gas go up and down. What we try to do is manage best we can the fixed cost structure, the physical bricks and mortar capacity. You need that for when the business recovers. So we have another $150 million in for restructuring cost in 2015, but I wouldn't say there aren't any large scale plant closures in there. Certainly $150 million wouldn't cover that. We have done a pretty good job on trying to flex our period cost down. That's where we're really focused, not so much on bricks and mortar.
Ross Gilardi:
Got it. Thank you.
Operator:
We'll take our next question from Kwame Webb. Please announce your affiliation and pose your question.
Kwame Webb:
Hello, this is Kwame Webb from Morningstar. Thanks for taking my question today. For me on the Caterpillar Financial side, I was curious to know
Brad Halverson:
Yeah. This is Brad Halverson. You know, CAT Financial had another good year in '14. In fact, if you look at the credit metrics in '14, you'll see a positive story. Our write-off were down, our past dues moves from down to 2.17 from about 2.4 last year. We get this question every now and then and our China business continues to form well. Their past dues were also down. And so, we are seeing some softening in the used equipment market in the last few months mining is actually held up pretty well during the year. We'll see how that carries forward in the next year. But at this moment, I would say that we don't have any concerns relative to our portfolio performance and past dues coming off another year of improvement and I'd say we'd pretty stable heading into '15.
Kwame Webb:
And then just a follow-up on the Resources business. There was some commentary about aftermarket sales improving, and I think you guys actually said that you expect '15 aftermarket to be flat with '14. Could you comment on what specific product lines you're seeing strength or stability?
Mike DeWalt:
Yeah. I mean for aftermarket just generically the rate of change is much, much less cyclical than new equipments. So even in the areas over the last -- like mining where it's been down over the last couple of years, it's down much, much less than the new equipment sales would be. As we look forward to next year, I would say we don't see any material changes in any other segment. There might be a little change around the edges, but nothing significant up or down by segment.
Kwame Webb:
Okay. Thank you.
Operator:
We'll take our next question from Ann Duignan. Please announce your affiliation and pose your question.
Ann Duignan:
Hi, good morning, JPMorgan. My question is around capital spending. You're keeping your CapEx budget flat year over year; R&D is going up. Should we be a little bit concerned that Caterpillar is expecting a quick recovery in the oil business? Or can you just dig a little bit deeper into why you're holding CapEx flat? We would have expected with earnings down this much that CapEx will be down significantly also.
Brad Halverson:
Hi Ann, this is Brad Halverson. May be I'll talk just a little bit about cash and I'll get to answer your question directly as well. We talked a lot with you guys about improving our balance sheet coming out of '08. And when we got to the end of '13 we were very happy with our balance sheet in terms of our debt to cap, net debt to cap being around 17 and carrying about $6 billion in cash. And we had another very good year, $7.5 billion of operating cash flow and our CapEx was fairly well below our planned outlook for the year. I think you'll find 1.6 being a fairly low number for us and well below what we thought in 2014. And so, we finished the year with net debt to cap around 18 and around $7 billion in cash. And so, we're very happy with where the balance sheet is. In fact, our working capital as a percent of sales as we worked on lean and other initiatives is at a record low, around 12%. So all that said is that we feel really good about where our balance sheet is positioned. Our priorities outside of maintaining the debt rating would be growth. And we talked a little bit earlier with Andy; we're spending a significant increase on R&D in '15 over '14. And that's a big part of how we want to deploy cash. And of course, that hits the P&L. I think CapEx around 1.6 is a reasonable number going into '15. There is a decent amount of that. That's a normal replacement type activity to go in our manufacturing facilities. As you know, we're fairly highly vertically integrated which creates a little high replacement kind of demand for capital. So I would say that's fairly reasonable going into that. You may want to ask a little bit and I'll just jump to it around deployment of cash. And I would say that we're continuing to look for growth opportunities, we're not announcing anything today but that activity remains very important to us and we're continuing to focus on that. The energy valuations are clearly dropped and so that's something that many are looking at including us. We're really happy with the balance sheet position. We'll consider stock repurchase as heading to 2015. But again, those priorities remain pretty well the same for us then.
Mike DeWalt:
Hey Ann, I think I'll just embellish one thing on what Brad said. If you look at the CapEx that we do have a lot of NPI, it's maintenance. It's not focused around capacity.
Ann Duignan:
Yeah. Okay. I did pick up on that. So that's at least valuable to understand. And then, my follow-up question is getting more philosophical. A lot of the restructuring spend that you've been doing the last few years has been in Europe, to make -- to set up Europe for Europe, I think is what the program was called. Given where currencies stand now if you were embarking on that restructuring, would you do anything different? If we get to parity, euro versus dollar, would it make sense to be keeping manufacturing in Europe?
Doug Oberhelman:
I'll comment here, Ann. It's Doug. We had some fundamentally, I would say, dysfunctional and not working operations in Europe, not productive, not efficient that we really needed to work through. Where we will land up when we're done there and we're closing in on that as a really lean manufacturing system and operations that are sized for that business in a euro at parity will just be a great tailwind for that. I would point out our good notebook plan in France that we downsized makes wheeled excavators today. It's one of the models we have in the world in terms of throughput, high quality machines and lower lead time. And so, we like that and I think the currency benefit will just be kind of gravy on that.
Ann Duignan:
Okay. I'll leave it there and get back in line. I appreciate the color.
Mike DeWalt:
Thank you, Ann.
Operator:
We'll take our next question from Vishal Shah. Please announce your affiliation, then pose your question.
Vishal Shah:
Yes, hi. Thanks for taking my question. How much of a headwind would you expect the dealer inventory to represent in 2015? And how much of that excess inventory is in oil and gas versus construction and mining?
Mike DeWalt:
Yeah. Good question. In -- the majority of the inventory by far is machines, the actual engine inventory is quite a bit less. It's not that they don't have any, but just in terms of scale it's quite a bit less. We're likely to have and also embedded into our forecast for next year is further decline in dealer inventory. So I think it's a case where we've got sales coming down $5 billion, dealers try to peg their inventory around what expected sales are. And so, when sales come down, they take inventory down. And that's -- we expect that to happen next year. So I think it will probably at least as much as we had this year.
Vishal Shah:
Okay, that's helpful. Just on the E&T business, I know you mentioned 10% to 15% decline in sales. As you think about the decremental margin for that business, should we be assuming the decrementals to be above the 30% or 25% target in 2015?
Mike DeWalt:
Yeah. Again it depends on the products in E&T. I think certainly in the oil and gas area, that the margins there would be above the average and so that would be negative to their decrementals. Locomotives would probably be on - new locomotives, the services businesses very profitable. But locomotive less so, there are some industrial engines as well are down. So again that’s probably a little below average on margins. So on balance, I would think that E&T has it going both ways and probably not dramatic in total.
Vishal Shah:
Thank you so much.
Operator:
We'll take our next question from David Raso. Please announce your affiliation then pose your question.
David Raso:
Evercore ISI. My question is about especially the lag of some of these adverse impacts. I'm just trying to think of Cat's earnings power run rate exiting 2015. I think people are just trying to figure out where 2015 sets up going into 2016. And just seeing the lag impact, can you maybe give us some cadence on how you're seeing the EPS play out for the rest of the year? It just seems like the back half of the year maybe we're looking at $2 in the back half, or less; or the fourth quarter at least running below $1. I'm just trying to make sure we understand how you see your earnings power exiting 2015, as it reflects on people's thoughts on 2016.
Mike DeWalt:
Good questions David. I think forward to 2016, there are so many things that we don’t yet know the answer to, and I'll just give you a couple here. One with lower oil prices its driving lower gasoline prices, and that ought to be an economic stimulus from our consumer standpoint. How that plays out in world economic growth, what the actions with the ECB are taking, how that plays into world growth, whether or not China remains satisfies around seven or tries to push it up, all those things right now, we don't really know the answer to. They could be positive, they could be negative, at this points it's hard to say on 2016.
David Raso:
Yes. I'm not asking you to predict 2016. Right now – if I could predict that we'd all retire tomorrow. I'm just trying to figure out the idea of -- are we exiting the back half of 2015 at a $2 back half, or a $1 per quarter run rate? And then however we view 2016 is predicated on how you see commodity prices through 2015. I'm just trying to make sure we understand the earnings power run rate exiting 2015.
Mike DeWalt:
I think if oil and gas -- if oil prices and gas prices don't go up and we’re not forecasting them too. We would have much more of a follow off in the oil and gas sales in the back half of the year which would imply more of a negative in the back half.
David Raso:
Well, maybe just said another way, the greatest sales decline in 2015, is it the fourth quarter? The EPS sets up to be the lowest for the year? I'm just trying to figure out -
Mike DeWalt:
Probably third and fourth quarter - third and fourth quarter. We’ll start exhausting the backlog of drilling and well servicing probably as sometime in the second quarter I would guess.
David Raso:
Okay. I really appreciate it. Thank you.
Doug Oberhelman:
I think we have time - so we'll do one more.
Operator:
We will take the last question from Jamie Cook. Please announce your affiliations then pose your question.
Jamie Cook:
Hi, I guess most of my questions have been asked. But Doug, I just don't know if you'll be willing to provide to the Street your -- I mean, there's the concern the oil and gas cycle is the next mining cycle that we had. So can you just provide your view on what that risk is and how would you manage your business differently given what we learned from mining?
Doug Oberhelman:
I would say tough question obviously. We saw our mining lose half of its sales in our segment in – really under a year about a year. Our energy and transportation business last year was 20 billion plus. I would not see that happening on that scale at all because we don’t have the exposure to oil and gas in that segment as we did with mining in the resource segment. And that's probably about as far a I will go because as I said here today, if we see oil and all those who were forecasting oil at $20 and those who are forecasting gas at $1.50, some forecasting higher gas and higher oil, and I'm not going to make it commitment or even a forecast on that. But what our commitment is to you all, is that 25% to 30% decrement on the way down and 25% on the way up. We've done pretty well with that. I don’t like these top line gyrations that we’re getting and we’ve seen. But our managing of those ups and downs have been - I think pretty well in the last few years and that’s what we would commit to if we have to go further down or if we get lucky and it goes up.
Jamie Cook:
All right. Thanks. I will get back in queue.
Doug Oberhelman:
Thank you all very much and we’ll talk with you again at the end of the first quarter.
Operator:
Thank you very much. Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's presentation. You may disconnect your lines and have a wonderful day. Thank you for your participation.
Executives:
Mike DeWalt - VP of Strategic Services Doug Oberhelman - Chairman and CEO Brad Halverson - President and CFO
Analysts:
Ted Grace - Susquehanna Eli Lustgarten - Longbow Research Andrew Casey - Wells Fargo Securities Ann Duignan - JPMorgan Seth Weber - RBC Stephen Volkmann - Jefferies David Raso - ISI Group Steven Fisher - UBS
Operator:
Good morning, ladies and gentlemen and welcome to the Caterpillar Third Quarter 2014 Earnings Results Conference Call. At this time, all participants have been placed on a listen-only mode and the floor will be open for your questions and comments following the presentation. Now I’d like to turn the floor over to your host, Mike DeWalt. Sir, the floor is yours.
Mike DeWalt :
Hey, good morning everyone and we’re very happy to have you with us this morning for our third quarter earnings call. I'm Mike DeWalt, Caterpillar's Vice President of Strategic Services. And on the call today, I'm pleased to have our Chairman and CEO, Doug Oberhelman; and Group President and CFO, Brad Halverson. Remember this call is copyrighted by Caterpillar Inc. and any use, recording or transmission of any portion of the call without the expressed written consent of Caterpillar is strictly prohibited. If you'd like a copy of todays call transcript, we will be posting it in the Investors section of our caterpillar.com Web site, and it'll be in the section labeled Results Webcast. Now this morning for sure we'll be discussing forward-looking information that involves risks and uncertainties and assumptions that could cause our actual results to differ materially from the forward-looking information. A discussion of some of the factors that either individually or in the aggregate we believe could make actual results differ materially from our projections that can be found in the cautionary statements under Item 1A, Risk Factors of our Form 10-K filed with the SEC in February of 2014 and our 10-Q filed with the SEC in August of 2014. And it’s also in the forward-looking statements language contained in this morning’s financial release. In addition, a reconciliation of non-GAAP measures can be found in our financial release this morning and again that’s been posted on our Web site at caterpillar.com. So let’s get started. I’ll be covering three things this morning; our third quarter results, the increase in our profit outlook for 2014 and our preliminary outlook for 2015 sales and revenues. Now before I get into the quarter though I thought it might be helpful to summarize just a couple of themes from this morning’s financial release, key points that we were trying to get across. And the first one is around stability and consistency. Last year and about this time we provided our first view of 2014 that was our preliminary outlook of sales and revenues for ’14 that we did with our third quarter release. Back then we said it looked to us like ’14 would be relatively flat year with 2013, that was the case then that’s about what’s happened through the first nine months of this year and that’s still our full year view today, so consistency. Second point is around profit, while sales and revenues for the first nine months of both 2013 and 2014 have been around $41 billion, profit per share is up year-to-date and every quarter of this year has been higher than the corresponding quarter of 2013. Profit per share so far to the first nine months of 2014 or $4.64 all in and $5.03 excluding restructuring and that’s both of those are up from first nine months of last year which was $4.21. So, while there are number of puts and takes the point is we worked hard on operational execution and cost management and that’s helped results. Okay, with that let’s turn to the third quarter. Sales and revenues were $13.5 billion and that was up about $100 million from $13.4 billion in the third quarter of last year. While sales and revenues didn’t change much, profit per share rose from $1.45 last year to $1.63 this year or $1.72 without restructuring cost. The increase in profit per share in that increase still are number of puts and takes. On the positive side, price utilization was up, currency impacts both in operating profit and below the line and other income and expense were positive. Our share count was lower and that was positive for profit per share as well. On the other side SG&A, R&D and manufacturing cost were a little higher, positives included material cost which were favorable but more than offset by higher employee incentive compensation, expense and a little higher warranty thoughts. The incentive compensation increase as a result of 2014 performance being well ahead of the targets we set when we started the year. Now results by segment; energy and transportation, sales were up $663 million or about 13%, their profit was up $250 million or about 29%. Most of that sales increase was from improved volume. And interim energy and transportation remember we have several different industries that we’re serving. Oil & gas, power gen, transportation and that’s rail and marine and industrial and that’s where we sell engines to other equipment manufacturers. Sales were up in all of those industries. Oil & Gas in industrial were up relatively in line with the segment average transportation grew a little faster than the segment average and power gen a little less than the average. The profit increase for the core energy and transportation in the quarter was largely result of the higher sales. Now for construction industry, sales were down $98 million, the profit improved a $194 million or about 67%. Now for sales on the plus side construction had positive price realization. On the downside, volume was little lower and most of that was from dealer inventory reductions as dealers lowered inventories a little more in the third quarter of this year than they did in the third quarter of 2013 for construction. And user demand was also down slightly from the absence of the large sales of the Brazilian Government that we had last year and I mentioned that in our second quarter financial release. We also had little lower demand throughout most of Asia including China and weakness in the Middle East and in the CIS. On the plus side demand was up in North America and we had a small improvement in Europe. The profit improvement was a result of the positive price realization, some of the currency impacts and favorable manufacturing cost. In resource industries, which is principally mining sales were down $496 million or about 19% from the third quarter of last year and profit was off $239 million or about 62%. The decline in sales was primarily lower volume. Price realization wasn’t significantly different one way or the other. The volume decline was largely a continuation of what we’ve been saying all year. While overall mine production has been good and many of the global mining companies are improving their performance, their purchases of new equipment are at low levels. While sales this year are below last year; the 2014 quarterly sales trend has been pretty stable. The 2.1 billion in the first quarter, 2.2 billion in the second quarter and 2.2 billion in the third quarter not a lot of change quarter-to-quarter as we progress through the year. The decline in profit from the third quarter of last year was primarily a result of the lower sales. While profit in resource industry is down from the year ago much like the sales it’s been in a fairly tight ban [ph] throughout 2014. In the first quarter, profit was $149 million, second quarter was $133 million and third quarter was $147 million. Again similar to sales it’s been pretty stable but at low level. Our financial product segment revenues were up 44 million and operating profit was up too, so not much change from a year ago. Now before I move on to the outlook I’d like to touch on the balance sheet and cash flow. We generated another 1.4 billion of machinery and energy and transportation operating cash flow this quarter and are $5.4 billion through the first three quarters of 2014. Our balance sheet remains strong with the machinery, energy and transportation debt-to-total capital ratio less than 35% which is comfortably towards the low end of our desired range. Given the current demand environment, we generally have the capacity we need and CapEx expectations this year are less than 2 billion. Our strong cash flows enabled us to repurchase 4.2 billion of stock so far this year and we announced an increase of 17% in the quarterly dividend last June. And we’ve maintained a healthy cash balance at about 6 billion with the ability to invest. With that let’s turn to the outlook. For 2014, we now expect sales and revenues to be about $55 billion which was the mid-point of our previous $54 billion to $56 billion outlook range. We have however increased our profit outlook for the year. Previously at the $55 billion mid-point of our sales and revenues range with expected profit at about $5.75 a share or $6.20 excluding the restructuring cost. We’re pleased this morning to announce that we’ve raised that to $6 a share all-in and $6.50 excluding the restructuring cost. Now in addition to the outlook for 2014, as we typically do in our third quarter financial release we provided what we call preliminary outlook for next year sales and revenues. As we look towards 2015 from an economic perspective, we think there is a reasonable likelihood the world economic growth can improve that in 2015. In the developed countries, growth-oriented monetary policies we think could support continued modest improvement. In developing countries several governments raised interest rates for constraint liquidity in 2013 to either control inflation or protect exchange rates. And those measures slowed growth in 2014. More recently interest rates in some of those countries have stabilized and we’ve seen the first monetary policy easing in the third quarter of 2014. In addition, we think there is some potential for increased investment infrastructure particularly in countries like United States if we could get a highway built India and Turkey. Despite cautious optimism for improved global economic growth, significant risks and uncertainties remain and that could temper growth in ’15. Political conflicts and social unrest continue to disrupt economic activity in several regions, in particular in the CIS, Africa and the Middle East. In addition, the Chinese governments push from structural reform has slowed growth some and the ongoing uncertainty around the direction and timing of fiscal policy and monetary policy in the U.S. could temper business confidence. As a result of all that, our preliminary outlook for 2015 sales and revenues is flat to slightly up. Now one thing you won’t find in this morning’s release is the discussion about 2015 profit. That’s typical for this time of year, and we start our planning process with sales, we provide a top line view of next year’s sales with our third quarter release, we completed our planning process in the fourth quarter and we’ll provide a more complete view of 2015 in our January release along with our yearend 2014 results. So, in summary, profit per share was up in the third quarter. We had another good solid quarter of cash flow, our sales outlook for ’14 is similar to our previous outlook and we raised the profit outlook for 2014. Our preliminary outlook for ’15 is flat to slightly up. So, with that we’re ready to take your questions.
Operator:
Thank you very much; ladies and gentlemen the floor is now open for questions. (Operator Instructions) Thank you very much, we’ll take our first question from Ted Grace, please announce your affiliation and post your question.
Ted Grace - Susquehanna :
Mike, I know you said that you didn't want to give too much on -- or really any guidance on profitability, but could you speak to at least --?
Mike DeWalt :
But you’re going to ask anyway right?
Ted Grace - Susquehanna :
Well, no, what I was going to say, as a starting point, could you frame out at least across the three segments how you're thinking about each in the context of sales being flat to up slightly? Where would you have the most optimism, the most caution and maybe start there?
Doug Oberhelman:
Yes, I think in the scheme of things our view around each of the segments is much like the total I don’t think we don’t see big swings up or down really in any of the segment. I mean it’s always as you know looking out that far is tough to always be exact but or ever be exact I guess but by and large we don’t see a lot of change going forward in any of the three segments.
Ted Grace - Susquehanna :
Okay. And the second thing I was hoping to ask either you or Doug is one of the big initiatives you've talked a lot about is making the Company a lot more nimble and kind of reactive to the demand environment that gets served to the Company, something that's outside your control. Can you just speak to the progress you've made in 2014 and how you think that sets you up for 2015 and to the degree you can talk about specific metrics whether it's cycle times or philosophy that would be great?
Doug Oberhelman :
That actually used to be a quite long answer delving into operations I think, what I’ll do is kind of summarize it for you a little bit. One of the key metrics that we’ve that kind of measures the success or failure of that is the incremental operating profit pull through. We have had target of around 25% and we’ve taken the actions needed to be flexible enough to achieve that. But embedded in that there are lean helps if you would improve cycle times that helps were down that path but I think the ultimate measure of this is when either profit goes up or goes down do we have the flexibility that take cost out going down and I think we’ve shown that we do.
Doug Oberhelman:
Well, just to add that Mike it’s Doug here and I agree with that completely. In terms of really lean manufacturing lean six sigma standard work it’s -- I think we’re still early in the process here. We probably got about a third of our sales where manufacturing anyway covered to some with where we want to be in our first wave of lean really deeply manufacturing in every one of those cases whether it’s a medium wheel loader line in Aurora, Illinois. Wheeled excavators in Grenoble, France and I can go on, certain solar is a good example of that too, we’ve seen really tremendous improvements in quality in throughput, in inventory, in almost all metrics and we’re encouraged. But there is a lot more work to do and as I said to you all many times, we really expect to see big chunks of this coming in ’14 and ’15 I think we saw some of that, some of year-to-date numbers we certainly have seen it in the quality of margins in the third quarter but in my mind we still got plenty of work to do on that. I also said earlier today that, in a way flat production really gives us time -- production output gives us time to get to work on this, when things are booming it’s hard to work on efficiency because we’re trying to satisfy the market in ‘13 when the bottom fell out in mining we’re cutting cost at every moment and we really can’t think about how we want to organize a manufacturing line. Well, since mid ‘12 or so certainly the ‘13 and ‘14 in construction and in energy and transportation that team has been doing that and shows in the margins. Mining will be next, the mining recoveries will really I think prove what we can do with that because a lot of that work is being done now too. So I think we’ve seen a down payment on it, but in my mind there is more to come.
Operator:
Thank you very much. We’ll take our next question from Eli Lustgarten. Please announce your affiliation then pose your question.
Eli Lustgarten - Longbow Research:
Can we first talk a little bit about the fourth quarter as we look out I mean you’re sort of giving us guidance of about a little over $14 billion and while I recognize there is about $0.15, $0.16 from lower taxes and foreign currency in this quarter, your guidance, your midpoint of guidance, $1.47 or so for the numbers, can you give us a bridge why the fourth quarter will be -- with higher volume will be somewhat weaker profitability because you’ve been pretty stable and production pretty stable in profitability for the year? Hello?
Operator:
Thank you very much ladies and gentlemen, please remain on the line. We’re going to get this up reconnected, one moment. Okay, gentlemen we are live.
Doug Oberhelman :
Eli, could you ask it again we’ve got cut-off, it was not --
Eli Lustgarten - Longbow Research:
I was wondering if I did something wrong or not. Okay, the first question very quickly, on the fourth quarter, you’re guiding to a little bit over $14 billion. You’ve been very stable in production, very stable in profits almost for the year. You’re guiding us to lower numbers in the fourth quarter on profitability and I know there is like $0.16 of lower taxes and benefits and some currency in the quarter. Can you give us a bridge of what you’re expecting in the fourth quarter it’s different to drop the profitability to under $1.50 from the $1.60 that you have been doing?
Doug Oberhelman :
Yes, you’re right. With our fourth quarter outlook or our full year outlook it’s not too hard to turn that into a forecast for the quarter and we do expect profit to be down a little bit in the fourth quarter. A couple of things that you mentioned we had currency gains in the quarter and there are lot of things that we think we can do a decent job of forecast and exchange rate is not one of them. So we’re not forecasting changes in exchange rates from here. So there is no continuation of the gain. We had favorable tax item in the quarter that goes away as well. So those are two positives that we’re in the third quarter that won’t be in the fourth quarter. We typically have seasonally higher cost in the fourth quarter. We’re wrapping up the year and discretionary spending tends to rise a bit, so that all happens essentially by almost every year but I can remember since I have been at the company. So we’ve got that worked in. One other item probably I know is we expect a little bit of negative mix in the fourth quarter. We’ll have couple of a big electric power sale that we think will be completed in the fourth quarter at quite a bit lower margins than the total. So I think I would say mix seasonal cost and absence of the couple of the favorable items from the third quarter that pretty much bridges that I think.
Eli Lustgarten - Longbow Research:
Okay. And can we talk about the construction industries segment I mean you warned us in the second quarter about lower emerging market business taking $1 billion out of production. But we're hearing strong things, particularly in the US. In the quarter, we have emissions coming next year, so the dealers are saying that they're having trouble even getting inventory out of Caterpillar for some of the demands that they would want. Can you give us some insight of what you expect for the Construction Industries in the fourth quarter, and particularly as you go into next year because that should be one of your better quarters, particularly North America.
Doug Oberhelman :
I’ll try to answer your question but I’m going to try to answer another one that you kind of touched on but didn’t actually ask directly and that’s on inventories.
Eli Lustgarten - Longbow Research:
:
Yes.
Mike DeWalt:
Sometimes I think there is confusion around dealer inventories. Since we sell through dealers, we frequently talk about changes in dealer inventory that kind of help give a complete picture of what’s going on. But just because inventories go up or down doesn’t mean that they’re – themselves that doesn’t mean that it’s well managed or poorly managed. There are lot of seasonal impacts that go on during the year in construction for example, we had a sizable increase in the first quarter in inventory and that kind of builds up for the spring and summer selling season and that it gets worked on for the rest of the year. That happened in the third quarter last year that happened in the third quarter this year, fourth quarter of that usually tends to happen as well. Dealers tend to sell a little more than we ship them. So, that occurred in the third quarter than it probably occur again next quarter. In terms of construction, it’s a mix bag around the world. We tend that we live in the U.S. and we get influence by what we hear in the U.S. a lot and it’s been actually pretty positive, it’s been quite a bright spot although, I wouldn’t make the pitch that allow us better that doesn’t mean it’s great. We are I guess 7 to 8 years now past where the peak was and that was ‘06 and ’07. So, we still have a ways to go to get to where we would think it’s really good but it has been better. Other parts of the world it’s a little bit of a different story. China has been week, our share there has been pretty good and rising but that doesn’t offset a weaker industry. Europe has been flat to slightly up for us which I think is a surprise to a lot of people but again you kind of have to think back to where it’s come from and how low it got. My comment about U.S. not being back to peak goes even more so for Europe, there is a lot of room for Europe I think to improve; they can ever get economic growth kicked back in there. So, that’s a little bit of a rundown to the world.
Doug Oberhelman:
Hi Eli, it’s Doug. I want to talk about the Tier 4 that you eluded to also and there is – we’re in the throes of 2014-15 by the end of ’15 virtually all construction equipment will have been, will be Tier 4 final compliant. And as we go through that were about halfway done maybe a little bit more than that right now in terms of individual models. That has as we phase out of Tier 4 interim and phase into Tier 4 final and again it’s depending on horsepower size or kilowatt class that has doubled kind of the degree of difficulty in some of those assembly lines certainly around implementation. And we’re seeing some of that availability go out you mentioned you heard that from dealers. I do too. I would expect that to continue for a little bit more but all of our product managers are all over it and I suspect by time we’re done with Tier 4 final by the end of next year not before this will work its way through as well. We’re really happy by the way with our Tier 4 final machines that are out there, a lot of them are running up a lot of hours and doing very very well in the marketplace. So, I assume as we work through this is kind of bubble of introductions I think we’ll like what we see but it’s a bit of challenge right now, you’re right.
Operator:
Thank you very much, we’ll take our next question from Andrew Casey, please announce your affiliation and post your question.
Andrew Casey - Wells Fargo Securities:
A couple of questions. First on E&T margin performance, Q3 obviously very strong at 20.1%. You talked about volume helping the quarter and then a negative mix going forward into Q4 because of the electric power contract. I'm just trying to understand how to handicap the impact of presumably lower US locomotive sales in 2015 on mix. Was there a positive mix in Q3 or was it all due to volume?
Mike DeWalt :
Well, there are several questions wrapped in there if we take locomotives specifically no doubt next year is going to be lower but that would if you just looking at locomotives that would actually be up positive for mix the margin of locomotive would be not the same as the segment average. So no, I don’t think that would not have a negative mix impact next year. In fact, big sales of that in the fourth quarter would likely have would be another reason that fourth quarter mix might be a little weaker. I think it’s probably a good time to kind of take that whole rail sector and kind of frame a bit how it could impact next year. Our view at least at this point is that certainly locomotive sales will be down, but remember our rail sector that industry, our business there has more than just new locomotives. We have a very large service business and then we have a pretty sizable parts business for locomotives and we have a healthy international business that we expect to be up actually next year. So overall our view is that rail will have a negative but probably less than 2% impact on energy and transportation next year, hope that helps.
Andrew Casey - Wells Fargo Securities:
It does, Mike. Thank you. And then if I could ask another question within E&T. There has been a lot of concern about some recent changes in commodity prices as it relates to oil. Could you kind of comment on maybe what percent of revenue is exposed to upstream production for oil and nat gas and then is there any point at which oil prices may start to impact demand? Thanks.
Mike DeWalt :
Yes, that’s a good question Andy I know that’s certainly been on everyone’s mind with what’s happened to oil prices over the last two weeks. And certainly lower oil prices on a particular help they’re about where they were right now couple of years ago and our business didn’t fall apart two years ago in oil and gas. So while it’s not a big positive we don’t think it’s going to be a significant negative as well, at least not where it’s at now. You asked a question about how low would oil prices have to go and that’s always kind of the sliding question it will depend a lot on where they were how long they stay, it’s a very difficult question to answer. I can’t say that we’re at now kind of where we have been over the last, not last year but a couple of years ago we were down at this level and again it wasn’t all that negative. Remember the majority of our oil and gas business is gas compression and oil and gas production transformation. So production is a big driver in our business. Also particularly for our turbine business, it tends to be pretty long term. The kind of projects that our customers are doing are big many of them multibillion dollar projects that go several years, most of those big oil companies they understand that there are short-term fluctuations in price and those big investment projects that they have in-flight which would effectively be in our backlog at the moment. They generally don’t change those based on short-term fluctuation. So all in all I would say we like to see a little higher oil price but kind of where is at now we don’t see it having a big negative impact. One other just minor point maybe around that and that is the dividend that could play through potentially in other parts of the business. When oil prices are down there is usually a pretty direct consumer impact of that purchasing gasoline and lower price of oil leads to a lower pump price which puts a little more money in everybody’s pocket. So maybe that would be helpful for the economy overall.
Douglas Oberhelman:
I just want to add here its Doug here again. We are obviously watching oil and gas prices very closely. We are talking to, trying to stay close to our customers on this and what they’re saying and I think you’re seeing their quarterly announcements come out and generally the feedback we’ve been getting that say 80 to 90 somewhere in there on a sustain basis. Certainly we’ll take that really educated top half of it but there is plenty of room for reinvestment like Mike said it’s still where it was a couple of years ago. I think you see low 70s on a sustain basis, there would be a chill cross the market and I’d say gas coming down below three substantially on a sustain basis may do that as well. The other wildcard here that we’re really anxious about and looking forward to is Mexico opening and that the oil and gas industry there is about to go over carefully that will. They’ve passed laws down there; they’ve made changes in the industry. That’s going to go at almost any oil or gas price. So there is so many moving parts on this all over the world that is just hard to predict, but U.S. mid-80s we think is on a sustainable level we can all live with.
Operator:
Thank you very much. We’ll take our next question from Ann Duignan. Please announce your affiliation then pose your question.
Ann Duignan - JPMorgan:
Good morning. I think just following up on that theme, one of the things that Komatsu has said recently and not to quote a competitor, but I’d be interested in your comments on it, is that a lot of their construction equipment is being supported by domestic oil and gas also. Can you talk about that a little bit, Doug and then what indirect impact might that have if oil prices were to fall to the low 70s?
Doug Oberhelman :
Yes, sure and I think that’s right we do see we’ve seen everything from pad preparation to road building around all the shale zones in the country and that has impacted to some degree our construction equipment I don’t think it’s probably going to move the needle, I don’t think it’s material but it would certainly impact at a little bit in our case. Again we get down to low 70s a lot of best we’re going to change on a lot of things and there is no doubt that would be impacted to some degree I would agree with that.
Ann Duignan - JPMorgan:
So in your view, Doug, and most of the increase in construction equipment plans you're seeing now in the U.S. are pure resi and non-resi construction-driven?
Doug Oberhelman :
I would say yes, it’s across the table I mean across the board yes, yes.
Ann Duignan - JPMorgan:
Okay.
Doug Oberhelman :
Certainly, the fracing site preparation has been a help but boy we’re seeing kind of across the board steady growth lower than we like but steady growth in the other businesses as well for construction equipment.
Ann Duignan - JPMorgan:
Okay, thank you. Just a clarification on your outlook for 2015. You said in the US you were hopeful that we would get a Highway Bill. Is that included in your outlook or would that be upside to your outlook?
Doug Oberhelman :
I don’t know if I said I was hopeful but I said it could be upside but there is a possibility and it depends on a lot things in congress. I think in terms of India, we’re definitely going to see infrastructure spending increase at a significant rate. We mentioned Turkey in the right up I’m also optimistic in Brazil although there is election there at this weekend but both candidates, both parties are talking about reflecting the economy and Brazil is always used infrastructure as a way to do that. In our case, we could see some kind of either a steady extension of what we’re doing or a bit up as congress prices stimulate the economy or do what they do but I wouldn’t say I’m hopeful but it could happen I put it that way.
Mike DeWalt :
Yes, and I made the comment a few minutes ago and I think there’ve been a lot of elections this year I mean one of the U.S. is coming out so, hopefully we’ll have a window where the government can work together to make some progress before the next election.
Ann Duignan - JPMorgan:
In a lame-duck session indeed.
Mike DeWalt :
No I don’t think it would happen in the lame-duck although anything can happen but I would say it’s more going into post-election in 2015 as maybe there is some consensus to try to get after job creation, grow the economy faster that could push on some element of tax reform a little bit and infrastructure, those would be the two things that have an outside chance of something happening but bigger than right now but I’m not going to call it is going to happen.
Doug Oberhelman :
Back to your regional point and we’re not counting on a big upswing as a result of that, no.
Operator:
Thank you very much, we’ll take our next question from Seth Weber, please announce your affiliation and pose your question.
Seth Weber - RBC :
Mike, it sounds like you bumped up your restructuring cost expense a little bit this year to $450 million from $400 million. And it sounds like that's targeted at the mining, the Resource business. Can you give us any color on the incremental details or where you're stepping up the spending there?
Mike DeWalt :
Yes, actually I won’t point anyone thing, we start the year by paying $400 million to $500 million and some of the projects we understood very specifically some were being studied and that was the reason we had a range in other words – that we might do some of that we might not do. Last quarter, our estimate was closer to 400 so we kind of revised it down a little bit, that estimate right now is closer to 450 so there are a couple of more things that we’re doing, none of them are material, none of them would we want to fall out separately but the only thing we’ve talked about separately that individually is pretty material is the European restructuring we did in construction. So again, we started out the year saying 400 to 500 and I think we’re going to basically come in there.
Doug Oberhelman :
But just to clarify the vast majority of that is not resource industries or mining -- and around the construction equipment business. In fact, resource industries restructuring in 2014 of the 450s one of the smaller pieces.
Seth Weber - RBC :
Okay, thanks for that clarification. And then just on the performance of the business, I think you called out the mining -- the aftermarket parts sales were down. Could you talk about any color on the aftermarket order activity in the Resource business?
Doug Oberhelman :
For us sales and orders are pretty much the same thing, we turn around parts orders usually and about 24 hours so there is no significant backlog there. So one is about the same as the other. For the company overall, part sales were positive and I think seem to be starting to build some momentum and that’s a good thing. Mining is still I would say weak and really not much change one way or the other.
Seth Weber - RBC Capital Markets:
Did you see any pickup sequentially in orders, aftermarket orders?
Doug Oberhelman :
No, we did not.
Operator:
Thank you very much. We’ll take our next question from Stephen Volkmann. Please announce your affiliation then pose your question.
Stephen Volkmann - Jefferies :
And I’d actually like to go back. Doug, you were just talking about the restructuring that was mostly done in construction. And I guess I was under the impression certainly that the first half of 2014, construction margins were probably over earning a little bit. You guys built a fair amount of inventory I think. And so I guess I had assumed that those numbers were sort of not something I should think about as we move forward and yet there is a fair amount of restructuring going on here. I guess I’m just having trouble trying to parse out how much of the restructuring has sort of permanently improved those construction margins and how much you had temporary things going on in 2014?
Mike DeWalt:
I’ll answer that, this is Mike. So we’re talking about construction here.
Stephen Volkmann - Jefferies:
Yes.
Mike DeWalt:
So in 2014 I think, this is maybe an odd way to say it but I think construction is a little bit and this is probably not the right choice or words but more back to normal. If you go back to starting in late ‘12 and throughout much of ‘13 in construction we were reducing inventory both ours and dealers and that had negative impacts on production, it was made price realization tougher. So I think 2013 was very tough year for construction because of that. So, and I think this year if you look at dealer inventory changes I mean there have been changes by quarter, but by in large they’re likely to end the year about where they started. Production levels are kind of matching demand in other words and have been pretty stable. So that the point that Doug made earlier that’s really help efficiency and we don’t have kind of the downward changes if you will. And in fact, you see part of that there are price realization this quarter versus a year ago. I think in terms of the restructuring charges there is a little bit of benefit in this year again much of it is around restructuring our Belgium facility and some of the benefits are in this year and more will be added in next year a bit and then after. So I think there is more to come in terms of restructuring benefits for construction.
Stephen Volkmann - Jefferies:
Okay, great. That’s helpful. And then can you just update us, Mike I thought I remember you were going to try to reduce inventories in construction, maybe it was more broad than that, but something like 800 million this quarter and in Q4 and it looks like maybe you didn’t quite get there. Can you just talk about how you feel about all that?
Mike DeWalt :
Yes, again this goes back. What we’re talking about here is dealer inventory last quarter we said we thought that dealer inventory was going to come down somewhere around 800 million and this quarter dealer inventory went down 600 million. I would call that given your ability to forecast that all the moving parts of that side actually pretty good I think it’s directionally what we thought it was going to be but I think the fourth quarter is probably going to be directionally what we thought it would be. And it’s a couple of things part of it seasonality, construction adds to inventory. If you think about the Northern Hemisphere where you’re in winter not a lot of activity going on then and so we tend to produce more and dealers tend to stock up. You can kind of smooth load things a little bit better and then it gets old throughout the rest of the year. That’s pretty common that’s happen this year. We’ve had absolute reductions that I wouldn’t call seasonal in mining and that has continued although the reductions are little bit maybe less than they were a year ago, that dealer inventory is coming down and it’s at a pretty low level right now. If I look at dealer inventory overall, I would say it’s in pretty borrowing the seasonal changes that occur. And I would it’s in pretty good shape. We do not have a dealer inventory problem for say.
Stephen Volkmann - Jefferies:
Okay. I appreciate it.
Operator:
Thank you very much. We’ll take our next question from David Raso. Please announce your affiliation then pose your question.
David Raso - ISI Group :
The question is on oil and gas, the order book. Can you give us some feel for where the order book is year-over-year and how far does it extend into 2015? And also how are you extrapolating that order book when you lay out your 2015 sales guidance?
Mike DeWalt :
Yes, okay, David. So I would say overall and this is one of the industries where we actually do have a little bit better visibility than say construction where relative to sales that order book is usually a little less. It turns over quicker. I’d say it’s pretty healthy and in fact if you look at solar it’s not it’s actually roughly where it was a year ago it’s not changed much during the year, if you look at the rest of energy and transportation in the reciprocating engine piece of it, it’s up we had a nice increase in the third quarter and I’d say it’s pretty healthy levels. When we forecast next year we don’t just look at the backlog and forecast forward, it’s more like we’re out there trying to figure out what we think will actually happen in terms of sales then we use the backlog as maybe kind of a reality check to see if that makes sense. So, I would say for energy and transportation, we still have a pretty good backlog.
David Raso - ISI Group :
And to be clear though, oil and gas within E&T was my questions. So can I take that reciprocating comment as similar to what you have in oil and gas, up on recip and flat on solar?
Doug Oberhelman :
So what I would – I gave you a solar because that’s mostly oil and gas. The recip -- factories we build engines they get sold into different application. So, the data that I see around backlog is around product not end market necessarily. So, but I would tell you I think anecdotally a lot of the strength has actually been oil and gas.
David Raso - ISI Group :
Okay. And then lastly, on the puts and takes for 2015, I know we're not giving an earnings guidance, but just trying to think of the moving parts, things we've said in the past. Do they still stand for restructuring savings for next year? Any carryover or incremental benefits from repo, the short-term incentive comp? I know you bumped it up to $1.3 billion today for this year. Just trying to think about those puts and takes and maybe a comment on pension. Just something to frame the puts and takes for the 2015 earnings model.
Brad Halverson:
David, this is Brad Halverson, I’ll take a shot at this without giving you guidance for 2015 but try to tell you how we think about it internally. We remain very committed to our flow through target and operating profit of 25% and the way up and 25 to 30 in the way down. We’ve demonstrated that, demonstrated it as well this year with our proxy bidding up year-to-date with sales being down and that’s driving focus across all of the units in terms of restructuring, lean I would say also improve [Technical Difficulty] .
Doug Oberhelman:
David, we lost the line again we’re not sure why, I’m not sure how far we --.
David Raso - ISI Group :
Brad, if you can hear me, I basically -- you started to talk about a little bit beyond the comment of incremental is 25% on the way up, 25% to 30% on the way down and just how the segments (multiple speakers).
Brad Halverson:
Yes, I was just trying to give you a flavor of how we’re looking at it without giving guidance and if I repeat something we’ll just do that since we’re starting over here but yes, we talked a little bit about being nimble earlier somebody made the comment, we feel that internally and we think it’s driving kind of our flexible cost structure is driving our delivery around incremental and decrementals again we’re happy that profit is up with sales actually being down on a year-to-date basis. And so it’s driving a lean initiative, it’s driving the restructuring efforts division by division and its driving I would say pretty strong supplier collaboration as we look to improve our margins and so if we look out to next year we have targets across each of our segments for incremental and decremental margins. If we were to get some sales growth next year as we said sales could be flat upside assuming we get some sales growth. We remain committed to that 25% incremental pull through. I think the other question here color about pension and we wouldn’t see much of a change in pension year-over-year in terms of our pension cost.
David Raso - ISI Group :
Obviously flat sales or sales don't move up or down much, incrementals are a little less telling. It's a law of small numbers. So I think what we are just trying to figure out -- we used to speak of restructuring savings over time being $400 million to $500 million with -- a lot of the savings after 2015 would be significant, but even 2014 I think we used to speak of maybe a couple hundred million of savings, trying to think what that number could be in savings for next year, again, trying to think through the repo. And we can all make our own projections around sales, but we're just trying to think of non-volume sensitive items.
Mike DeWalt :
Yes, I think in terms of kind of giving more guidance again. If you look at this year and you look at our original outlook again we’ve been certainly surprised with some operational items particularly our margin and we’ve also been helped in last quarter by currency but I think clearly at an operational basis we’re really happy with where our margins are relative to flat sales and we see them, moving forward we see to be absolutely committed to the 25% growth which we think is a pretty good number.
David Raso - ISI Group:
All right. I appreciate the non-answer.
Doug Oberhelman :
We’re not trying to be tricky on profit we just didn’t make a profit outlook and we trying to really hard to give all the pieces that make a profit outlook for next year that doesn’t mean that it’s terrible that doesn’t mean it’s great, it just means that we didn’t get an outlook.
David Raso - ISI Group:
But can you at least -- the one thing though, the restructuring savings that we used to speak to 400 million to 500 million by exiting ‘15, how much of those savings do you think you will have captured in ‘14 and at least some concept of ‘15 just on that one item?
Doug Oberhelman :
I suspect we’ll talk more about that in January. We have savings in ‘14 and we’ll certainly have more in ‘15.
Operator:
Thank you very much. We’ll take our next question from Steven Fisher. Please announce your affiliation then pose your question.
Steven Fisher - UBS :
Can you guys talk about how the rental channel is influencing your construction sales in 2014 and how do you see that in 2015? And I guess how is demand in construction outside the rental channel?
Mike DeWalt :
Well that’s a good question. Actually rental has been affecting the business I would say increasingly for I don’t know 10, 15 years. And particularly when times are more uncertain customers have the tendency to rent more. Remember we tend to not sell through rental houses we sell the CAT dealers who are in the rental business. And we’ve had particularly in the U.S. we’ve had positive sales through the rental channel and positive sales through the end user owner channel I don’t think there is anything out there that is driving a big structural change that impacted ‘14 or that will drive a big directional change in ‘15. But I think it is true that as customers get more and more focused on asset utilization, the rental channel can be more attractive. That’s why we’re big time in the rental business. It’s a key element of the across the table initiative I mean it’s a definite part of the channel here to say.
Mike DeWalt :
Okay, so both channels sound like they are up this year, is that right?
Mike DeWalt :
Yes. Well the North America.
Steven Fisher - UBS:
Right, sure. And then, Mike, you mentioned a lot of room for growth in European construction. How do you feel about the visibility of European construction right now? Is your base case for next year that that’s maybe flat?
Mike DeWalt :
Yes, when you look at construction and I kind of touched on this a little bit ago. There are two parts of the business, parts for example where we have little to no backlog because we get an order we ship, we get an order we ship it. So it’s not the kind of thing that lands to a lot of visibility based on a backlog. Then construction is a little bit like that to generally when our customer or a dealer orders kind of on average they get it in a few months. So the backlog isn’t quite like it would be for maybe a big turbine or a big mining truck. So, again I would say construction we forecast based on what we think is going to happen economically where the market is relative to replacements, we look at where dealer inventory and we’re taking a lot of factors, backlog and short-term visibility don’t play into construction or part sales that all as much as they do in some of the other parts. So I guess bottom line, it was a long-winded answer to say within construction it’s normal not to have a lot of concrete visibility to a backlog.
Steven Fisher – UBS:
So the baseline probably would be about flat is your expectation for next year in Europe?
Mike DeWalt :
I think that’s the case for all of our -- I mean this is worldwide comment but for all of our segments. We said flat to slightly up next year and we don’t see either energy or transportation, construction or resource industries being kind of far from that. It looks pretty flat up a little for much of the business.
Mike DeWalt :
All right. We are at top of the hour so we’ll sign-off. Thank you very much for joining us on the conference call today. We’ll talk to you next quarter.
Operator:
Thank you very much. Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today’s presentation. You may disconnect your lines and have a wonderful day. Thank you for your participation.
Executives:
Mike DeWalt - VP, Strategic Services Brad Halverson - Group President - Corporate Services and CFO Doug Oberhelman - Chairman and CEO
Analysts:
Andrew Kaplowitz - Barclays Capital Robert Wertheimer - Vertical Research Partners Jamie Cook - Credit Suisse Nicole DeBlase - Morgan Stanley Timothy Thein - Citigroup Larry De Maria - William Blair Theoni Pilarinos - Raymond James Ross Gilardi - Bank of America Merrill Lynch Jerry Revich - Goldman Sachs David Raso - ISI Group
Operator:
Good morning, ladies and gentlemen and welcome to the Caterpillar Second Quarter 2014 Earnings Results Conference Call. At this time, all participants have been placed on a listen-only mode and the floor will be open for your questions and comments following the presentation. Now I’d like to turn the floor over to your host, Mike DeWalt. Sir, the floor is yours.
Mike DeWalt:
Thank you very much, and good morning, everyone, and welcome to our second quarter earnings call. I'm Mike DeWalt, Caterpillar's Vice President of Strategic Services. And on the call today, I'm pleased to have our Chairman and CEO, Doug Oberhelman; and Group President and CFO, Brad Halverson. Now this call is copyrighted by Caterpillar Inc. and any use, recording or transmission of any portion of the call without the expressed written consent of Caterpillar is strictly prohibited. And if you'd like a copy of today's call transcript, we will be posting it in the Investors section of our caterpillar.com Web site, and it'll be in the section labeled Results Webcast. So this morning, we'll be discussing forward-looking information and it certainly involves risks and uncertainties and assumptions that could cause our actual results to differ materially from the forward-looking information. A discussion of some of those factors that either individually or in the aggregate could make actual results differ materially from our projections can be found in our cautionary statements under Item 1A, which is Risk Factors, out of our Form 10-K filed with the SEC in February of 2014, and also in the forward-looking statements language in today's release. Now in addition to that, a reconciliation of non-GAAP measures can also be found in our release today and again it’s posted on caterpillar.com in the Investors section. Okay, let’s get started this morning and I’ll be covering three themes before we get into the Q&A. Second quarter sales and profit, the outlook for 2014 and our announcement this morning of additional share repurchase expected in the third quarter. Now before we really get into the quarterly numbers I thought it might be helpful to summarize the major themes from this morning’s release. In other words what were the key points we’re trying to get across. The first point is around stability and consistency. Back in October of 2013, we provided a preliminary outlook for 2014 sales and revenues and back then we said it looked to us like 2014 would be a relatively flat year with 2013. That was the case then and that’s the case today. The midpoint of our outlook today is within about 1% of 2013’s sales and revenues. The second main theme this morning is around execution which has been good. Manufacturing, SG&A and R&D costs are close to 500 million, favorable in the first half versus the first half of 2013. Cash flows continue to be strong, we’ve improved inventory turns, PINS continue to improve and we’ve raised our profit outlook again this morning. Now the third major theme this morning is cash deployment, and the actions we’ve taken to help drive shareholder return. With the stock buyback we announced this morning, we expect that from the start of 2013 last year to the end of the third quarter of this year that we will have repurchased $6.2 billion worth of CAT stock and made two substantial increases in the quarterly dividend. So, that’s three themes, consistency, execution and shareholder friendly cash deployment. Okay now let’s get into the second quarter results. Sales and revenues were 14.2 billion, and that was about 3% below the second quarter last year. Construction Industries was up 11%, Resource Industries down 29 and the rest, energy and transportation, financial products and our all other segment combined to be roughly flat with the second quarter of last year. Now for construction, North America has been an area of strength and you might be surprised to hear so is our EAME region particularly Europe in the second quarter, it’s been better as well. Now construction sales in the Latin America were about flat with the second last year but as we get into the third quarter, Latin America will likely turn a bit negative versus last year, and that’s not driven by big economics, it’s primarily related to large sales of Backhoe Loaders and Motor Graders now that we’ve had to the Brazilian government. It was positive for sales last year and through the first half of this year but those orders are complete. So you should expect to see in the retail statistics of your release each month some decline there so don’t be surprised if you see that we expect that it is included in our outlook. Now construction sales in Asia Pacific were down slightly and that includes weaker sales in China. Now in China we started the year 2014 with the improving construction equipment demand but over the second quarter it weakened a bit. Our resource industries segment which again is mostly mining was down 29%. It was down 35% to 40% in every region of the world except North America. North America was much less negative than the other regions partly because the steep sales decline in North America started earlier, in other words it was probably closer to the bottom a year ago. In addition better sales to chlorine aggregate customers was also a factor that part of resource industries tends to be a little more closely aligned with construction and the particularly in North America that has been performing better, so again overall mining sales weak. However, this was the first quarter since 2012 that resource industries sales were higher than the previous quarter. So that means second quarter of 2014 sales were about 6% higher than the first quarter. Sales improved from first to second for both new equipment and for parts. In fact for parts it is the second consecutive quarterly improvement. Q1 of 2014 was up slightly from Q4 of ’13 and Q2 this year was a little better than Q1. Now it is too soon to suggest that the mining business is turning around but it’s going to see sequential improvement. Moving on to energy and transportation it has been incredibly stable high performing business over the past few years and this quarter was no exception. Overall sales for energy and transportation were stable with the second quarter of last year. And even if you take it down to the next level and you look at sales in the major industry served by energy and transportation that’s oil and gas, PowerGen, transportation and industrial the sales were individually pretty flat with the exception of PowerGen and that was down sort of high single-digits but even there we see that being an issue around the timing of some large projects. So in summary on second quarter sales and as you probably expected going into the quarter, construction sales were up nicely, mine sales were lower everything else was pretty much flat. Okay I will shift from sales to profit in the second quarter. Headline numbers, profit per share of $1.69 excluding restructuring and $1.57 including restructuring costs. In comparison profit was $1.45 in the second quarter of 2013. Now by segment resource industries was the only segment that we had that declined versus the second quarter last year the rest were up. And a couple of big bright spots were a profit increase of more than 80% for construction industries and an all time record profit for energy and transportation and in fact their first quarterly profit over a $1 billion. From a consolidated perspective we provide an operating profit comparison by region in our release and today that’s on -- that is the graphic on Page 6 of our financial release because the individual buckets in that waterfall graph were relatively small I’m not going to go into each of them in any detail. But I would summarize by saying that manufacturing cost and products utilization were modestly positive and the negatives were a bit lower sales volume, the restructuring costs in the quarter and absence of a sizable $135 million gain that we had in the second quarter last year related to a settlement with the owners of -- previous owners of our Siwei acquisition. So that’s the quarter, let’s turn to the outlook for 2014 where we’ve made a modest change to sales and revenues and increased our outlook for profit. With sales half of the year is behind us and we have tightened up the range and lowered the midpoint slightly. Now as I mentioned at the outset of the call this morning our view of 2014 sales and revenues has remained reasonably constant, in another words a flattish year versus 2013. We thought that was the case last year we think that’s still the case today. That said with half of the year over we have tighten the range and we have -- the updated range is a forecast of 54 billion to 56 billion in sales and revenues and for reference to previous range was 56 billion plus or minus 5% that meant a range of just over 53 billion to just under 59 billion. The middle of the new range is 55 billion and that is slightly lower than the previous midpoint of 56 billion and most of that change is in construction industries and reflects the weaker sales expectations in China based on the reporting out of China that probably shouldn’t be much of a surprise and decline in expectations in the CIS and in the Africa, Middle East region and given the political turmoil in those parts of the world that’s probably not a big surprise. In terms of profit, for a better understanding of results, we are providing outlook, again both with and without restructuring costs. Today, we have increased the outlook for both. Now excluding restructuring costs, we have increased it to $6.20 a share, that’s a $0.10 increase from the prior forecast. Now our expectation for restructuring costs is near the bottom end of our 400 million to 500 million range. And with restructuring cost all in, our updated outlook is profit per share of 5.75 which is $0.20 per share, better than the previous outlook. Now to help you think about the rest of the year, the third and the fourth quarter, there’s one more thing I would like to cover and that’s how we are thinking about the last two quarters. There is typically seasonality in our sales and we think that’s going to be the case this year as well. So we have got half of the year behind us and you know the midpoint of our outlook. We basically have the second half of the year, not a lot different than the first half. Now we expect sales and revenues in the third quarter to be similar to the first quarter of 2014, and fourth-quarter sales to be more in line with the second quarter of 2014. In terms of profit per share, with lower sales in the third quarter, it would likely be the weakest profit quarter of the year and with higher sales in the fourth quarter, profit per share should be similar to the average of the first and second quarters of 2014. I hope that helps you think about our expectations and how the third and fourth quarter could play out. And if you missed writing that down, again we will be reposting the transcript of this call on our caterpillar.com Web site. Now in addition to our financial results this morning we announced that we expect to purchase or repurchase another $2.5 billion of caterpillar stock in the third quarter. This repurchase is a part of the 10 billion that the Board authorized earlier this year. Now the context behind our repurchases really over the past two years is consistent with our cash deployment priorities. Coming out of the 2008 and 2009 great recession, we had work to do to improve the strength of the balance sheet. We needed to invest for growth, and with very low interest rates our employee benefit plans needed additional funding. Over the past few years we have made significant progress. Our machinery engines and transportations at the capital ratio is at the low-end of our target range. Benefit plan funding is in good shape. And we generally have the production capacity in place that we think we will need for the next few years. And although we will continue to be opportunistic, we aren’t expecting any large acquisitions. So with nearly 9 billion of machinery engines and transportation operating cash flow last year in 2013 and nearly 4 billion in the first half of this year, and with significant cash on hand we have had the opportunity to take substantial actions to improve shareholder return. In 2013 we repurchased $2 billion worth of stock and raised the dividend by 15%. In June of 2014 we increased the dividend again an additional 17%, and by the end of the third quarter of this year we expect to have repurchased about 4.2 billion of stock in 2014. That’s a 1.7 billion in the first quarter, and the 2.5 billion in the third quarter. Rewarding stockholders is an important goal and our actions demonstrate our commitment. So, in summary we had a pretty good second quarter. We raised the profit outlook for 2014 and we announced another $2.5 billion of stock repurchase. So with that we’re ready to shift over to the Q&A portion of the call.
Question:and:
Operator:
Thank you very much ladies and gentlemen the floor is now open for questions. (Operator Instructions) Okay. We we’ll take our first question from Andrew Kaplowitz, please announce your affiliation.
Andrew Kaplowitz :
I'm from Barclays. Good morning, guys. Nice quarter.
Barclays Capital:
I'm from Barclays. Good morning, guys. Nice quarter.
Mike DeWalt:
Hey Andy good morning.
Andrew Kaplowitz :
So Mike, you said in the release that dealer inventories declined about $500 million in the quarter and you also talked in the release about the decline in inventories this year now being more than you previously expected mostly driven by Resource Industries. How much did this contribute to the reduction of your sales forecast and what kind of visibility do you have to a bottoming and destocking really across the Company, but particularly in Resource Industries?
Barclays Capital:
So Mike, you said in the release that dealer inventories declined about $500 million in the quarter and you also talked in the release about the decline in inventories this year now being more than you previously expected mostly driven by Resource Industries. How much did this contribute to the reduction of your sales forecast and what kind of visibility do you have to a bottoming and destocking really across the Company, but particularly in Resource Industries?
Mike DeWalt:
Good question Andy, dealer inventory, certainly a benefactor versus our original outlook when we started the year. It kind of looks now like dealer inventory is going to be down maybe $1 billion or so more than we thought. In fact the first quarter and the second quarter combined, we are still a slightly for the year. We had a 700 increase in the first quarter, 500 increased the second quarter, and a lot of that is seasonality. But in the second half we’re looking for about 800 million of decline per quarter, so about a 1.6 billion coming out in the second half, so. Now that’s having an impact on second quarter, I’m sorry second half results. And it’s a couple of things you know, one, we’ve not really had a turnaround in mining yet, and so dealers are continuing to satisfy some demand out of inventory. We thought it was going to be a lot less, coming into the year and things might start picking up, we really haven’t seen that yet. So that’s one factor, and I think on construction, you know dealer inventory we’re going to end the year probably a little bit lower than we thought. And that’s actually despite a pretty darn good year so far for construction. I think it’s a case where we talk a lot about execution, we’ve actually been able to take down our lane one channel inventory that we have and dealers have been able to take their inventory down as well, I think we’re -- when you think about what’s an adequate supply kind of going back to your question, you know it’s within a range and I think particularly for construction it’s getting down to you know a pretty good level. So you know if demand doesn’t decline then you’d have to think going forward the dealer inventory’s going to be in even better shape at the end of this year than it was last year. So in summarize your question, I know I was kind of long winded. Dealer inventories having a bit more of an impact this year in on it, it’s a principle reason why the second half sales aren’t going to be better than what is in our forecast.
Andrew Kaplowitz :
Okay, Mike, that's helpful. And then maybe just shifting gears, you talked about the timing of large projects negatively impacting your E&T retail sales, but really your outlook for E&T really hasn't changed. Can you talk about your visibility in this segment? Do you still feel good about it because backlog is up and maybe specifically about power generation, what you see there?
Barclays Capital:
Okay, Mike, that's helpful. And then maybe just shifting gears, you talked about the timing of large projects negatively impacting your E&T retail sales, but really your outlook for E&T really hasn't changed. Can you talk about your visibility in this segment? Do you still feel good about it because backlog is up and maybe specifically about power generation, what you see there?
Mike DeWalt:
Yes, I’d say E&T overall, I’d say we feel very good, second half looks like it’s going to be pretty strong. We’ve had, I would say very good order rates over the last quarter particularly for oil and gas, for large engine products in general but oil and gas has been particularly good, so that’s contributed to the increase in the back log there. With electric power, we kind of have a couple of different businesses. We have -- we break it down between the investor business which is essentially large scale installations that, small we call it retail gen sets. The big gen set business, the big end has been pretty good and that’s the piece of it that can tend to be lumpy around big projects. We had some last year we’ll have some this year. And the timing affects how that plays out, certainly by month and by quarter and you see that in the retail statistics, it’ll move around quite a bit. I’ll tell you we feel pretty good about energy and transportation overall, really most of the sectors within there and particularly the oil and gas.
Andrew Kaplowitz :
Thank you, Mike.
Barclays Capital:
Thank you, Mike.
Operator:
Okay, we’ll take the next question from Robert Wertheimer, please state your affiliation.
Robert Wertheimer :
Hi, it's Vertical Research Partners and good morning, everybody. Mike, you mentioned the oil and gas strengthened. I know fracing has been ticking up and some of your channel partners have been bullish on that and the pipeline and a bunch of other stuff. If I am not mistaken, you have a Tier 4 changeover in some of the oil and gas engines for next year. Could you talk generally about the higher horsepower Tier 4, how many engines you have running, how confident you feel whether there is any kind of pre-buy going on there?
Vertical Research Partners:
Hi, it's Vertical Research Partners and good morning, everybody. Mike, you mentioned the oil and gas strengthened. I know fracing has been ticking up and some of your channel partners have been bullish on that and the pipeline and a bunch of other stuff. If I am not mistaken, you have a Tier 4 changeover in some of the oil and gas engines for next year. Could you talk generally about the higher horsepower Tier 4, how many engines you have running, how confident you feel whether there is any kind of pre-buy going on there?
Mike DeWalt:
I’m going to have to defer that question Rob. I’m not an expert on that. I don’t know the number.
Robert Wertheimer :
Okay. No, that's fine, that's fine. I will follow-up after. I should have sent it before. And then I guess the second question, you just kind of addressed at length, so I apologize for going back to it, but the dealer inventory, which you gave good disclosure on, but are you comfortable that the Construction, which has been very strong and you are gaining share in an up markets, so it is really hard to sort out, but are you comfortable that Construction inventory hasn't restocked a little bit too much? Can you tell that -- especially in LatAm where some of the markets look really soft, you mentioned the big government project, so I'm just curious if you think the Construction inventory overinflated at all in the first half? Your margins were quite good in the first half and you are signaling down. So that is my second question.
Vertical Research Partners:
Okay. No, that's fine, that's fine. I will follow-up after. I should have sent it before. And then I guess the second question, you just kind of addressed at length, so I apologize for going back to it, but the dealer inventory, which you gave good disclosure on, but are you comfortable that the Construction, which has been very strong and you are gaining share in an up markets, so it is really hard to sort out, but are you comfortable that Construction inventory hasn't restocked a little bit too much? Can you tell that -- especially in LatAm where some of the markets look really soft, you mentioned the big government project, so I'm just curious if you think the Construction inventory overinflated at all in the first half? Your margins were quite good in the first half and you are signaling down. So that is my second question.
Mike DeWalt:
No, I think the first and second quarters played out pretty close to what we thought, if you think about it, the first quarter for sales to end users is always one of the lowest quarters of the year. Dealers commonly stock up and then sell it down in the second quarter which they did this year, it came down. And then the third quarter is usually pretty weak as well, a lot of Europe is on vacation, a lot of other parts of the world take vacation time and we feel that in our business, so certainly a bit more of that’ll come out in the third quarter and then again more probably in the fourth quarter. It’s always tough to forecast this with massive accuracy I mean we look at what are reasonable months of sales are but that varies by region and it’s a reasonable range and I think construction based on where we are in terms of the timing of the year lesser expectations are for year-end, is definitely within that reasonable range.
Robert Wertheimer :
Thank you. And then are you able to say what the total mining dealer de-stock is this year? You have kind of said it, but I just want to make sure I back into it right.
Vertical Research Partners:
Thank you. And then are you able to say what the total mining dealer de-stock is this year? You have kind of said it, but I just want to make sure I back into it right.
Mike DeWalt:
I think it’s going to end up being about 1 billion of memory serves me, I’m not a 100% sure on that but I think that’s over magnitude.
Robert Wertheimer :
Thanks Mike.
Vertical Research Partners:
Thanks Mike.
Mike DeWalt:
Which is more than we thought coming into the year.
Robert Wertheimer :
Okay, thank you.
Vertical Research Partners:
Okay, thank you.
Operator:
Okay. And we’ll take our next from Jamie Cook, please state your affiliation.
Jamie Cook :
Hi, good morning, Credit Suisse. I guess a couple questions around the mining or the Resource business. The sales were up sequentially, which was nice. The margins were down sequentially. I get the year-over-year issues, but I guess the margins in Resource disappointed a little relative to my expectations. In particular, when you said aftermarket was up again. So can you just talk about that? Is that just investment that you incurred this year that you held off on last year? And then I think last quarter you said in terms of resource margins you expected them to be about flat with the first quarter. Is that still the way to think about it? And then my second question, again, sorry, a follow-up on just the Resource business. You said I think OE and aftermarket was up. Can you give a little color around what markets, both on OE and aftermarket, just a little more color on that commentary you mentioned in the prepared remarks?
Credit Suisse:
Hi, good morning, Credit Suisse. I guess a couple questions around the mining or the Resource business. The sales were up sequentially, which was nice. The margins were down sequentially. I get the year-over-year issues, but I guess the margins in Resource disappointed a little relative to my expectations. In particular, when you said aftermarket was up again. So can you just talk about that? Is that just investment that you incurred this year that you held off on last year? And then I think last quarter you said in terms of resource margins you expected them to be about flat with the first quarter. Is that still the way to think about it? And then my second question, again, sorry, a follow-up on just the Resource business. You said I think OE and aftermarket was up. Can you give a little color around what markets, both on OE and aftermarket, just a little more color on that commentary you mentioned in the prepared remarks?
Brad Halverson:
Yes this is Brad Halverson. Just one comment on our resource industries segment in terms of its margins, this segment is critically important to us and we’ve made a conscious effort to continue to invest in the technology and autonomous mining and those types of things as well as our initiatives around Bucyrus. And so I would say that we have made a conscious decision relative to maybe our normal expectations on pull through to continue to invest in the segment even where their sales are at.
Mike DeWalt:
And Jamie their incrementals I think too were really operationally better than the numbers look like just right after face of the statement. Last year they had a $135 million gain from the Siwei settlement so if you take that, if you adjust for that operationally they were pretty good.
Jamie Cook :
No, I get that. But is there any way you can tell us like what the investment number this year relative to sort of what you are thinking about last year and then again how to think about margins for the full year?
Credit Suisse:
No, I get that. But is there any way you can tell us like what the investment number this year relative to sort of what you are thinking about last year and then again how to think about margins for the full year?
Mike DeWalt:
Yes we’re at a point now where margins are low enough and sales are low enough the percentages I think the dollars are probably in some ways a little more important and easier way to think about it. We were $140 million something in the first quarter 130 million something in the second quarter and I don’t think you’re going to see material changes from that probably for the rest for the year.
Jamie Cook :
Okay, sorry, and then just any additional color on the commentary with the aftermarket being up again in the second quarter? Was that a sequential uptick from Q1 and then just color on where you are seeing it and on the OE side as well?
Credit Suisse:
Okay, sorry, and then just any additional color on the commentary with the aftermarket being up again in the second quarter? Was that a sequential uptick from Q1 and then just color on where you are seeing it and on the OE side as well?
Mike DeWalt:
Yes actually from first to second in fact what I looked at last night was sort of a less about regions and more about products, it was actually I mean small numbers I’m going to start with that small numbers but fairly widespread on the OE. And the part sales we have strength in part sales on things like underground coal trucks traditional CAT were actually a little better than most where we’re seeing down side on the aftermarket now and things like deferred maintenance on big shovels and the drag lines and alike but I’d say that and the numbers aren’t huge even the increase quarter-over-quarter was actually relatively small, but thankfully turned in the right direction.
Jamie Cook :
Okay, great. Thanks I’ll get back in queue.
Credit Suisse:
Okay, great. Thanks I’ll get back in queue.
Operator:
Okay. We’ll take our next question from Nicole DeBlase. Please announce your affiliation.
Nicole DeBlase :
Yes, Morgan Stanley. Good morning guys.
Morgan Stanley:
Yes, Morgan Stanley. Good morning guys.
Mike DeWalt:
Good morning.
Nicole DeBlase :
So I just wanted to address the locomotive business a little bit. Your biggest competitor there saw pretty strong equipment order growth this quarter, I think like 40%. So I am just curious how locomotive orders are trending for Cat? Are you guys seeing the positive impact associated with the Tier 4 pre-buy at all yet?
Morgan Stanley:
So I just wanted to address the locomotive business a little bit. Your biggest competitor there saw pretty strong equipment order growth this quarter, I think like 40%. So I am just curious how locomotive orders are trending for Cat? Are you guys seeing the positive impact associated with the Tier 4 pre-buy at all yet?
Mike DeWalt:
Yes, yes so this is a big year for locomotive sale probably the biggest since we’ve owned EMD. There have been a lot of misconceptions about this and this is a good opportunity I think to clear some of those up EMD has been great acquisition on our part, their market share has gone up in North American locomotives quite a bit since we brought them. Their sales have gone up quite a bit and I would use the words pre-buy but certainly dealers have ordered a lot of locomotives from us as well as our competitors for delivery this year…
Nicole DeBlase :
Okay. Do you think we'll start seeing the sales pick up in like 3Q or is it mostly a 4Q event?
Morgan Stanley:
Okay. Do you think we'll start seeing the sales pick up in like 3Q or is it mostly a 4Q event?
Mike DeWalt:
Production has been going pretty solid all year long effectively we’re book solid. If we could have built more we probably could have sold a little bit more this year. But we are book solid on locomotives. The timing of the sales is around when we deliver them. And we will probably have a better both third quarter and fourth-quarter. Now on the whole Tier 4 question, we’re close to our customers. There are not that many North America. They’re largely the big class I rail. We have very close relationship with essentially all of them. We have been talking to them about Tier 4 expectations for a long time. They have been telling us they don’t expect to order much for the next couple of years. We have talked to them about our Tier 4 plans. No surprise to them. Our view is that the marketplace expectations over the next -- that the industry North America over the next couple of years is going to be down a lot from where we are right now. And the impact of the timing of our Tier 4 product is not going to have a great material impact on our sales at all.
Nicole DeBlase :
Okay, that was really helpful.
Morgan Stanley:
Okay, that was really helpful.
Doug Oberhelman:
I will just add to it. It’s Doug Oberhelman here. The EMD acquisition in general, as Mike said, we are really happy with that business. Since we have owned tails of more than double, this is a big year, big pre-buy year for sure. We would expect and have an talking to our customers a post-buy anemia in ’15 and ’16. Based on that we modified the Tier 4 development program that was in place and we acquired EMD because we didn't really -- like what we saw in terms of the end product with that engine. In doing that we contemplated that there will be virtually no or little demand in ’15 and ’16 in North America. That’s why we’re ramped up this year. That’s why we delayed our Tier 4 program and we will have a really good offering late ’15 and ’16 in Tier 4, and not to mention, our natural gas program for locomotives is already in place and some of those will be available in fact aren't running today. So we think we really got a good program going. Our market share has gone up significantly as Mike said, in North America and outside North America sales have been fairly active as well. So we’re really pleased with EMD acquisition, more for better ones.
Nicole DeBlase :
Okay, thanks. And then my second question is on E&T margin. So the segment margins there were really good, reaching a new high this quarter. Was there anything special to call out that drove the 19.5% or do you think that that level of strength could continue into the second half?
Morgan Stanley:
Okay, thanks. And then my second question is on E&T margin. So the segment margins there were really good, reaching a new high this quarter. Was there anything special to call out that drove the 19.5% or do you think that that level of strength could continue into the second half?
Mike DeWalt:
I won’t make any comments on their margin in the second half, as we don’t really do guidance by segment, but they have been doing just fabulous job of executing on sales that were actually down a couple of percentage points. They managed cost down and improved the margins. They’ve been very stable. Whether or not it’s going to be exactly the same for this quarter, you know that depends a lot on production, mix of products, regions they’re sold, I mean you can always expect some bit of up and down in the margin rate. But I think overall they’ve just done a great job. Not just this year, but really over the past three years. Their sales have been stable and profits have been going up.
Nicole DeBlase :
Okay, thanks. I will pass it on.
Morgan Stanley:
Okay, thanks. I will pass it on.
Operator:
We’ll take our next question from Timothy Thein. Please announce your affiliation.
Timothy Thein :
Great, Citigroup. Thanks, good morning. Yes, Mike, just coming back to the comments on oil and gas and specifically within well servicing in North America, I'm curious as the capacity is starting to come back, how do you feel about your relative position in that market in terms of now having the full offering in terms of pumps, transmissions and engines? And kind of related to that, are you seeing any -- just given how quickly demand has come back after being dead for 18 months or so -- are you seeing or experiencing any particular kind of product delays or extended backlogs for your products?
Citigroup:
Great, Citigroup. Thanks, good morning. Yes, Mike, just coming back to the comments on oil and gas and specifically within well servicing in North America, I'm curious as the capacity is starting to come back, how do you feel about your relative position in that market in terms of now having the full offering in terms of pumps, transmissions and engines? And kind of related to that, are you seeing any -- just given how quickly demand has come back after being dead for 18 months or so -- are you seeing or experiencing any particular kind of product delays or extended backlogs for your products?
Mike DeWalt:
Well, you know this is not a business so much, Tim, that orders today and expects it tomorrow. So we are increasing production of large engines. We are taking up the build rates in Lafayette because of the increasing demand, and back to your original point. We’ve been a leader in this kind of business for a long time and I think the additional transmissions and now the pressure pumps with our JV strengthened that. I think it’s a great business. It lines up well with kind of the strength of Caterpillar, durability, reliability, service, dealer network, parts supply, it is a great thing. You’re right, because if you go back a couple of years ago, what words to say, there was plenty of equipment in the market and it slowed down pretty dramatically from there. Last year was quiet a down year for our servicing. But I think they’ve gone through maybe the excess inventory they’ve had that plus a little bit lower supplies of, proper supply of gas supporting prices it looks like, it looks in good orders on our standpoint, it looks like it’s going to be a pretty good business.
Timothy Thein :
Okay, thanks. And then just switching back over to -- you touched earlier on the parts sales and mining. And I saw one of the majors the other day, actually the largest miner, who they are guiding to production growth across some of their key industrial commodities of 4% to 10% in their fiscal FY15. And I recognize the industry is doing a lot more now to kind of sweat their assets, but just going back to what is embedded in your guidance, obviously, you've taken the forecast down a bit on mining. But how long I guess do you expect before we start to see more of a re-coupling between your parts sales versus underlying production?
Citigroup:
Okay, thanks. And then just switching back over to -- you touched earlier on the parts sales and mining. And I saw one of the majors the other day, actually the largest miner, who they are guiding to production growth across some of their key industrial commodities of 4% to 10% in their fiscal FY15. And I recognize the industry is doing a lot more now to kind of sweat their assets, but just going back to what is embedded in your guidance, obviously, you've taken the forecast down a bit on mining. But how long I guess do you expect before we start to see more of a re-coupling between your parts sales versus underlying production?
Mike DeWalt:
That is the $64,000 question, baffling is probably the wrong word, but generally mine production has been pretty good, but equipment sales have been very poor. They probably had a little more equipment that they needed it’s a little bit almost like the tracking situation. So it will come back, there is no doubt about, they’re selling or they’re buying right now at levels that are far below what a normal sustainable replacement level would be but again the question is on little bit like fracing and well servicing, when will that turnaround. It’s hopeful to think that with part sale starting to add job a bit the equipment sales not going down anymore that where add an inflection, but both the mining customers and our sales have proven that it’s in the industry that’s extremely tough to forecast, so the honest answer is it needs to go well, it will go well just the timing of when that’s going to happen that we don’t know.
Brad Halverson:
Just a little more color on Michael. There is no question that there was an artificial boom of until 2011-12 in the world, the bust since then is equally I would of the same magnitude if not worse. We are see our customers delayed maintenance defer maintenance, do you think they have not done in the past. So at some point and as Mike said we don’t when this will come to us even if its replacement part cycle which we haven’t see yet. Now I can fully believe as do our customers that the bottom is just behind us are our numbers are just almost miniscule in terms of taking up, but they are taking up and I think anecdotally with our customers they see that too, when they start to get back into a normal parts replacement cycle and even a normal replacement cycle is a number a lot of that will depend on they’re running and I saw that announcement as well with a big one or two I met with lot of in the last couple months and I know they were talk about taking production down but most of them just trying look again more of the same. So the bottom-line we don’t always going to come back but it will come back and I just see replacement product cycle first in some magnitude.
Timothy Thein :
Thanks.
Citigroup:
Thanks.
Operator:
And we’ll take our next question Larry De Maria. Please state your affiliation.
Larry De Maria :
Thanks, Larry De Maria, William Blair. Just stick with EMD for one minute. I think you mentioned that you have an offering late 2015 or 2016 for Tier 4. Is that ahead of schedule for the 2017 launch and how successful are we now in building an international book to offset the declines you mentioned domestically?
William Blair :
Thanks, Larry De Maria, William Blair. Just stick with EMD for one minute. I think you mentioned that you have an offering late 2015 or 2016 for Tier 4. Is that ahead of schedule for the 2017 launch and how successful are we now in building an international book to offset the declines you mentioned domestically?
Mike DeWalt:
Couple of things, our view is that what we should have a Tier 4 diesel offering for 2017. We have actually a big after market rail business a big service rail business and we sale locomotives and components internationally and we’re increasing our passions in rail business as well. So there is a lot of aspects to this and I think with the big push in North America that we’ve had this year that’s a big demand from customers. One of the things that we done our best to do, is to differ as much of the non North American demand as we can in the next year, I’m not going to maybe give a forecast for next year just little early for that we’ll talk about 2015 maybe a little bit more next time we get together for these calls in October. But we have actively tried to focus as much as we possibly could more in North America this year because of the big demand.
Larry De Maria :
Okay, thanks. And then moving over a little bit, I know the business plan obviously calls to increase field population and you got some pricing in Construction, but in strong markets like North America, are we any closer to pushing through bigger price increases or are we still concerned with decreasing PIN at this point? I know it is having some obviously reverberations in the industry, and maybe you are under-earning a little bit compared to potential, but you are improving your market position, so just curious if we are any closer to getting more outsized price gains.
William Blair:
Okay, thanks. And then moving over a little bit, I know the business plan obviously calls to increase field population and you got some pricing in Construction, but in strong markets like North America, are we any closer to pushing through bigger price increases or are we still concerned with decreasing PIN at this point? I know it is having some obviously reverberations in the industry, and maybe you are under-earning a little bit compared to potential, but you are improving your market position, so just curious if we are any closer to getting more outsized price gains.
Mike DeWalt:
I think our strategy over the last few years and we’ve been just pounding through this quarter-after-quarter, just to have very modest pricing, good cost reduction, improve quality, improve delivery performance and get market share and that’s what we’ve been doing. Through that period we’ve had a very stable pricing environment, not much up, not much down and I don’t see that changing in the near future.
Larry De Maria :
Okay, thanks.
William Blair:
Okay, thanks.
Operator:
Okay, we’ll take our next question from Theoni Pilarinos, please state your affiliation.
Theoni Pilarinos :
Hi, Raymond James. You made it clear at your Investor Day that it was a priority for you to take some of the cyclicality out of your business and make your cost structure more flexible. Just looking at the mining segment and talking about when it returns -- eventually it will return and when it does how do we balance the uptick in demand that we've see in previous cycles and the backlog that we get to with some of the restructuring and layoff costs that you are taking now? Do you think that you are going to be caught as you have in the past with not enough capacity to meet demand?
Raymond James:
Hi, Raymond James. You made it clear at your Investor Day that it was a priority for you to take some of the cyclicality out of your business and make your cost structure more flexible. Just looking at the mining segment and talking about when it returns -- eventually it will return and when it does how do we balance the uptick in demand that we've see in previous cycles and the backlog that we get to with some of the restructuring and layoff costs that you are taking now? Do you think that you are going to be caught as you have in the past with not enough capacity to meet demand?
Mike DeWalt:
Well, we put in capacity, physical capacity in the last cycle and I think we have adequate capacity in mining, even for a sizeable upturn when it comes. What we’ve tried to do with our cost structure as you say make it more flexible and that means being able to take out costs when volume goes down and add cost when volume comes back in other words, try to make more of the cost structure as variable as we can. And we’ve done that, you know over the past two years in mining we’ve taken a lot of cost out, we’ve taken fixed cost out, or weak off period cost out in our major manufacturing facility, but we’ve done that without materially impacting capacity. So when things turn up there’s no doubt we’ll need to hire more people to get the work done. But I’ll just give you an example of the kinds of things that we’ve done to make that happen. You know we increased capacity quite a bit for large trucks over the course of 2010, ’11 and ’12. But we essentially did that in our Decatur facility, I mean we didn’t have any square footage to do that, it was all about how we laid out the factory, the equipment the processes to get more production out of that facility. So, you know other than depreciation we didn’t add a lot of fixed cost to get extra capacity, so that’s just an example of the kinds of things that we’ve done. I hope we do get a big turnaround that causes us to need more people I mean that’d be good for us, that’d be good for the industry, that’d be good for the country.
Doug Oberhelman:
Let me just add a little bit more to that, looking back at ’12 we did 65 billion in volume at that time, this will apply to both construction, mining as well as E&T -- energy and transportation for that matter. We’ve been working hard even though on lean manufacturing which is adding capacity every day in a very lean way as we go forward that will come home to help us as well, so, you’ve seen our CapEx numbers come down the last two or three years, we invested early during this cycle to take advantage of that which we did, we built market share, so our CapEx needs are pretty well met, we think organically in the next few years at least early through the next upturn, so we’re in pretty good shape with all of that, I don’t expect to miss a sale to tell you the truth, on the way up when the business returns in mining and I’d go so far to say expect the same thing in construction. Because the lean activities we’re doing here to help us with lead times, shorten lead times and better availability.
Theoni Pilarinos :
Okay, great. Thank you. And my second question has to do with your recovery. You have kind of described as slow and steady so far this year in the US. We've seen a couple of months now of non-res pickup and this has typically been the key turning point for you in addition to the highway bill. How do things sit now that we have had a month or two of non-res pickup, how does that change anything from the slow and steady recovery we've seen, if at all?
Raymond James:
Okay, great. Thank you. And my second question has to do with your recovery. You have kind of described as slow and steady so far this year in the US. We've seen a couple of months now of non-res pickup and this has typically been the key turning point for you in addition to the highway bill. How do things sit now that we have had a month or two of non-res pickup, how does that change anything from the slow and steady recovery we've seen, if at all?
Mike DeWalt:
Well it’s been slow and steady overall, actually North America in construction has been you know pretty good this year, I would describe North America as a little better than slow and steady. And although we didn’t change it a lot you know as a part of the updated outlook, you know the principal change was down for construction as I said before a little, China and then the turmoil in the Middle East and the CIS causing caution. But in the midst of all that we actually edged US construction up a little bit and I think defines there are encouraging. And to put it in some context though, Theoni, we've had a few years of improvement in North American construction. This has been actually a pretty decent year. But even through all of that, we are still thinking this year is kind of unit basis, we are still thinking this year is going to be sort of 15% to 20% below the ’06 peak. So there is still a lot of room I think to run in construction in North America. We just need some sustaining decent economic growth North America. We need the highway bill to get sorted out. We need economic activity -- housing starts a well below what the long-term needs to be the support population growth, and some point little bit like mining. That stuff is going to come back, and when it does it will be part of it. And it’s starting too, now.
Theoni Pilarinos :
Okay, great. Thanks a lot, Mike.
Raymond James:
Okay, great. Thanks a lot, Mike.
Operator:
We will take our next question from Ross Gilardi. Please state your affiliation.
Ross Gilardi :
Bank of America. Thank you. Mike, with respect to E&T and margins, shouldn't mix work strongly in your favor in the second half versus the first half given the pickup in oil and gas orders that you mentioned, which at least the turbine business I think is your highest margin business. You've got the sharp pickup in locomotive orders as well, which is still in front of you for the rest of the year or at least the locomotive deliveries, excuse me, coupled with a weaker PowerGen market. So I would think margins would be -- the mix would definitely be a benefit in the second half of the year.
Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Bank of America. Thank you. Mike, with respect to E&T and margins, shouldn't mix work strongly in your favor in the second half versus the first half given the pickup in oil and gas orders that you mentioned, which at least the turbine business I think is your highest margin business. You've got the sharp pickup in locomotive orders as well, which is still in front of you for the rest of the year or at least the locomotive deliveries, excuse me, coupled with a weaker PowerGen market. So I would think margins would be -- the mix would definitely be a benefit in the second half of the year.
Mike DeWalt:
The stuff that you have said was true, or much of it was, but it doesn’t act necessarily that all come to the conclusion that you've drawn. Oil and gas should be, we think good in the second half, but I think most of the areas of the energy and transportation business we think are going to improve in the second half. So it’s not all going to be concentrated in oil and gas. I don’t see a big impact on mix in the second half. We do have a couple of big orders going out, or of one big sale that we are expecting that will probably be a little below the average that will temper -- or be certainly less than the average margin rate, that will temper E&T expectations I think a bit in that, later in the year. And E&T is in some way similar to a lot of the rest of the business. And we have a higher discretionary cost in the second half of the year than we do in the first half of the year. Some engineering programs are likely going to ramp up there a little bit too. I wouldn’t get carried away on -- margins this quarter were quite good. I wouldn’t get carried away at all thinking that you’re going to get a lot better in the second half of E&T. We had a great second quarter there.
Ross Gilardi :
Okay, great. And then you talked about pricing as the principal driver of the margin expansion year on year in E&T. Can you flesh out a little bit more what is happening there and is it sustainable?
Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Okay, great. And then you talked about pricing as the principal driver of the margin expansion year on year in E&T. Can you flesh out a little bit more what is happening there and is it sustainable?
Mike DeWalt:
Say that again?
Ross Gilardi :
Yes, in your press release, you attributed the year-on-year operating profit improvement for E&T to pricing and I was wondering what's happening there, any particular businesses where you are seeing more pricing power and is it sustainable?
Bank of America:
Yes, in your press release, you attributed the year-on-year operating profit improvement for E&T to pricing and I was wondering what's happening there, any particular businesses where you are seeing more pricing power and is it sustainable?
Mike DeWalt:
So here is the thing. When the numbers are relatively small in terms of change -- operating profit, if memory serves me up, it was up a little over a 50 million. It wasn’t a lot. When you have small changes in operating profit like that and we are describing the reasons, sometimes it makes it seem as though it's maybe more important than it was. The changes that we had in pricing for Energy and Transportation certainly weren’t outsized. Again, it is like -- for the total Company, if you look at the waterfall chart, all of the buckets are relatively small. So describing anything that’s inside them can make them seem a little more important there are. I don’t think, there is not a big price increase going on there. I don’t see any big change in pricing activity going forward.
Ross Gilardi :
Okay, thanks. And just a last one real quick, Russia and CIS, I mean how big is it and what are you seeing with the sanctions?
Bank of America :
Okay, thanks. And just a last one real quick, Russia and CIS, I mean how big is it and what are you seeing with the sanctions?
Mike DeWalt:
Yes, it’s not a huge. The CIS is not huge for us. We don’t do sales by country. It’s as you would expect a lot less than in someplace like China, the industry there is just not as big. But it has come off. Even though it’s not big, it’s come off a lot. And that’s what makes it worth mentioning.
Ross Gilardi :
Okay. Alright, thanks very much.
Bank of America :
Okay. Alright, thanks very much.
Operator:
We’ll take our next question from Jerry Revich. Please state your affiliation.
Jerry Revich :
Hi good morning, it’s Goldman Sachs.
Goldman Sachs:
Hi good morning, it’s Goldman Sachs.
Mike DeWalt:
Good morning Jerry.
Jerry Revich :
Mike, at the Analyst Day, we spent some time talking about the focus on supplier development and just improving the connectivity. I'm wondering if you could just give us an update on how those efforts are tracking, if you can share supplier on-time deliveries or other metrics that are willing to talk about just to give us a sense for progress?
Goldman Sachs:
Mike, at the Analyst Day, we spent some time talking about the focus on supplier development and just improving the connectivity. I'm wondering if you could just give us an update on how those efforts are tracking, if you can share supplier on-time deliveries or other metrics that are willing to talk about just to give us a sense for progress?
Mike DeWalt:
Jerry, that’s a great question. But as all the things I tried prepare for this call that wasn’t one of them I’d happy to ask the purchasing guys of the Chairmen group that question but I’m afraid I don’t have a good answer for you. How about a second question?
Brad Halverson:
Jerry maybe I just kind of quickly in general terms I can get the numbers back in terms of percent but I would say our global purchasing group under the Dave Bozeman, combining that with our lean initiative focused on built in quality right time and then more importantly perhaps the customer lead times. The collaboration with our supplier is outstanding right now and we are seeing good progress connected to our lean initiatives across the board. So I would say relative to our engagement with suppliers in collaboration and you kind of seeing that taking our material cost results over the last year and half is often very positive.
Jerry Revich :
Okay. And my second question, just on the restructuring costs, it sounds like the timing is moving around a bit. Can you just give us a sense for what kind of cost savings you will be delivering by the fourth quarter on a run rate basis and what kind of tailwind we should look for next year? And then separately, Mike, I guess in the past when sales have stabilized at low levels in places like resources, you have been able to deliver improved profitability and margins even at flat sales once you stopped cutting production and I am wondering if that is a possibility as we think about 2015 if you are willing to address that.
Goldman Sachs:
Okay. And my second question, just on the restructuring costs, it sounds like the timing is moving around a bit. Can you just give us a sense for what kind of cost savings you will be delivering by the fourth quarter on a run rate basis and what kind of tailwind we should look for next year? And then separately, Mike, I guess in the past when sales have stabilized at low levels in places like resources, you have been able to deliver improved profitability and margins even at flat sales once you stopped cutting production and I am wondering if that is a possibility as we think about 2015 if you are willing to address that.
Brad Halverson:
I will let Mike handle, this is Brad again handle 15 and the back half but I would say the restructuring has just moved a little bit will have some of that cost move in the 2015 I would say probably roughly around the midpoint 450 is still a good number in total but some of that will over 15 and I would say the benefit by a large consistent with what we’ve talked about before but it’s not the only thing we’re doing around cost restructuring across management I would say. We talk a little bit about what we’ve done in terms of last kind of conference. We’re embracing the fact that we do have some cyclicality but I think the thing to remember is the fact that we have a lot diversity and really have one segment right now that’s not performing and it’s in the bottom of their cycle but we have a strong energy in transportation business and construction business strong in North America little concern in developing world with the margins that improve significantly. So I would say from an execution standpoint how we are managing these businesses and where we’re spending our money the good cost reduction last year, we had 500 million roughly in the first half of this year and it’s kind of part of how we’re operating there. So I feel pretty good about the fact that we have good consistent execution.
Doug Oberhelman:
You didn’t ask this, but I just wanted to time in one more thing that I thought Mike come up but he hasn’t, if you look at the second half of the year and the first half of the year we got a headwind in the second half of the year it was a small headwind, it was the small tailwind in the first half for the year it’s going to be pretty neutral inventory absorption. We’ve had not dealer in inventory, we had a small increase in the first half and we expect that come down in the second half and finish the year a little bit, basically fairly neutral, But what that has meant is that has been a little positive in the first half of the year and it will be a little negative in the second half of the year, and that’s also one of the reasons why you’re seeing a little difference in first half and second half profit.
Jerry Revich :
Thank you.
Goldman Sachs:
Thank you.
Mike DeWalt:
I think we have time for one more.
Operator:
Okay. We’ll take the next question from David Raso. Please state your affiliation.
David Raso :
ISI. Can I clarify the dealer inventory comments? Sequentially, did you say down $800 million each of the next two quarters?
ISI Group:
ISI. Can I clarify the dealer inventory comments? Sequentially, did you say down $800 million each of the next two quarters?
Mike DeWalt:
Yes we did.
David Raso :
And that includes engines and machines or just machines?
ISI Group:
And that includes engines and machines or just machines?
Mike DeWalt:
That’s machines I don’t think engines is forecast to change much. Dealer inventory in engines is smaller than much more stable what I was talking about was machines.
David Raso :
So just to be clear then, the second half of the year, on a year-over-year basis, production then is going to be largely in line with retail?
ISI Group:
So just to be clear then, the second half of the year, on a year-over-year basis, production then is going to be largely in line with retail?
Mike DeWalt:
Say that again David.
David Raso :
The year-over-year -- the first half of the year, you have had some nice help from the dealer swings in inventory.
ISI Group:
The year-over-year -- the first half of the year, you have had some nice help from the dealer swings in inventory.
Mike DeWalt:
I mean overall it wasn’t much we went up 700 first quarter down 500 second quarter, so first half was 200 million
David Raso :
Well, I'm thinking year over year, Mike. The first half of the year, you had about $1.8 billion. It was about $1.8 billion help, right, just the year-over-year changes. The second half of the year, just so I am clear, it looks like the year-over-year change will be pretty much neutral because last year third quarter, inventory went down $800 million. Last year fourth quarter, inventory went down $700 million sequentially, right, so the year over year is a bit of a push.
ISI Group:
Well, I'm thinking year over year, Mike. The first half of the year, you had about $1.8 billion. It was about $1.8 billion help, right, just the year-over-year changes. The second half of the year, just so I am clear, it looks like the year-over-year change will be pretty much neutral because last year third quarter, inventory went down $800 million. Last year fourth quarter, inventory went down $700 million sequentially, right, so the year over year is a bit of a push.
Mike DeWalt:
Yes.
David Raso :
So that said, if production is going to be basically in line with retail year over year, it implies the dealer stats, the retail stats. You must be looking at something from the dealers that are telling you that the retail data is going to get also pretty close to flat year over year because that is how you are forecasting your own sales for the second half. I know the dealer stats don't include pricing, don't include parts, but I just want to make sure I am reading that right as I see the dealer stats come out. There must be some implication here that the dealer stats do get close to flat over the course of the second half of the year. Is that fair?
ISI Group:
So that said, if production is going to be basically in line with retail year over year, it implies the dealer stats, the retail stats. You must be looking at something from the dealers that are telling you that the retail data is going to get also pretty close to flat year over year because that is how you are forecasting your own sales for the second half. I know the dealer stats don't include pricing, don't include parts, but I just want to make sure I am reading that right as I see the dealer stats come out. There must be some implication here that the dealer stats do get close to flat over the course of the second half of the year. Is that fair?
Mike DeWalt:
Yes. I think we would see it trending move towards that as the year goes on. I think that’s a very reasonable assumption.
David Raso :
Okay. And then last one, the sequential from mining revenue?
ISI Group:
Okay. And then last one, the sequential from mining revenue?
Mike DeWalt:
David, I will just go on from that. Throughout much of last year the mining numbers were continuing to go down. And so what a lot of that will be is -- we will be lapping what was actually quite low Resource Industries. That is probably where you will see a lot of improvement. You’ve already started to see that. This last month on Resource Industries, it was less negative than prior months, by reasonable margin.
David Raso :
Well, to that point, obviously, people watch the monthly retails and the fact is, if you look at the last three months for machines, it was still down 10, engines was also down 10. The way the guide plays out, obviously you must be looking at something from the dealers that tell you we are going to get pretty close to flat year over year in the second half. And I don't mean just one month, I mean basically for the first half and the second half, right? That is how you get to your own sales. So that moment retail turns positive, I mean obviously the stock is going to respond to that. So I am just trying to figure out am I reading that properly, that there is something you are seeing from your dealers that is telling you, you are going to have a machine number, I don't care if it is Resource, Construction, but combined those numbers are going close to flat soon as well as an engines or you couldn't have a flat Cat sales in the second half because there is no longer that big production retail gap.
ISI Group:
Well, to that point, obviously, people watch the monthly retails and the fact is, if you look at the last three months for machines, it was still down 10, engines was also down 10. The way the guide plays out, obviously you must be looking at something from the dealers that tell you we are going to get pretty close to flat year over year in the second half. And I don't mean just one month, I mean basically for the first half and the second half, right? That is how you get to your own sales. So that moment retail turns positive, I mean obviously the stock is going to respond to that. So I am just trying to figure out am I reading that properly, that there is something you are seeing from your dealers that is telling you, you are going to have a machine number, I don't care if it is Resource, Construction, but combined those numbers are going close to flat soon as well as an engines or you couldn't have a flat Cat sales in the second half because there is no longer that big production retail gap.
Mike DeWalt:
I am not going to give you an exact kind of number because as you started up, parts and service matters, pricing matters, currency impact matter a bit. But I think your underlying premise is that the retail stat should relative to a year ago start looking better is absolutely true.
David Raso :
Alright. Now that we are past 12 Eastern, I will cut it off. I'll ask you my second question off-line. But thank you very much. I appreciate it.
ISI Group:
Alright. Now that we are past 12 Eastern, I will cut it off. I'll ask you my second question off-line. But thank you very much. I appreciate it.
Mike DeWalt:
Okay, with that we’re a couple minutes over, we will wrap it up. Thank you very much everyone and we will see you again in October.
Operator:
Thank you very much. Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's presentation. You may disconnect your lines and have a wonderful day. Thank you for your participation.
Executives:
Michael I. DeWalt - Vice President of Strategic Services Division Bradley M. Halverson - Group President of Corporate Services and Chief Financial Officer Douglas R. Oberhelman - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Analysts:
Ted Grace - Susquehanna Financial Group, LLLP, Research Division Stephen E. Volkmann - Jefferies LLC, Research Division Eli S. Lustgarten - Longbow Research LLC Seth Weber - RBC Capital Markets, LLC, Research Division Jerry David Revich - Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Research Division Steven Fisher - UBS Investment Bank, Research Division Andrew M. Casey - Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, Research Division Ann P. Duignan - JP Morgan Chase & Co, Research Division Ross P. Gilardi - BofA Merrill Lynch, Research Division Mircea Dobre - Robert W. Baird & Co. Incorporated, Research Division Andrew Kaplowitz - Barclays Capital, Research Division David Raso - ISI Group Inc., Research Division
Operator:
Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Caterpillar First Quarter 2014 Results Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] It is now my pleasure to turn the floor over to your host, Mr. Mike DeWalt. Sir, the floor is yours.
Michael I. DeWalt:
Thanks, Kate, and good morning, everyone, and welcome to our first quarter earnings call. I'm Mike DeWalt, Caterpillar's Vice President, Strategic Services. And on the call today, I'm pleased to have our Chairman and CEO, Doug Oberhelman; and our Group President and CFO, Brad Halverson. This call is copyrighted by Caterpillar Inc. Any use, recording or transmission of any portion of the call without our expressed written consent is strictly prohibited. If you'd like a copy of today's call transcript, we'll be posting it in the Investors section of our caterpillar.com website, and it'll be in the section labeled Results Webcast. This morning, we'll be discussing forward-looking information that involves risks, uncertainties and assumptions that could cause our actual results to differ materially from the forward-looking information. A discussion of some of those factors that either individually or in the aggregate could make actual results differ materially from our projections that can be found in our cautionary statements under Item 1A, which is Risk Factors, of our Form 10-K that we filed with the SEC in February of 2014, and it's also in the forward-looking statements language in today's release. In addition, a reconciliation of non-GAAP measures can also be found in today's release, which has also been posted on our website at caterpillar.com. Now before I get into the details, I should also mention that we made organizational changes that went into effect at the start of 2014; responsibility for paving, forestry, industrial and waste and tunnel boring products moved from Resource Industries, and you'll find it in the financial release today in our all other operating segments line. In addition, responsibility for some work tools was moved from Resource Industries to Construction Industries, and the responsibility for administration of 3 wholly owned dealers in Japan moved from Construction Industries, and it's also in the all other operating segment in today's release. We also reclassified restructuring costs for 2013. We moved it from segment profit to corporate items, and we did that to be consistent with how we're presenting 2014. The most significant impact of these changes on our reportable segments was for Resource Industries. And to put that in context, for the full year of 2013, that reorganization moved about $1.5 billion of sales from Resource Industries, but it had very little impact on profit for Resource Industries. In fact, only about $10 million for the full year. Now after these changes, the vast majority of Resource Industries sales are related to mining and quarry and aggregates. We put a Q&A on this morning's release on the reorg. It's Q&A #7 on Page 17, and it includes a quarterly breakdown of the impact for Resource Industries. Now we also changed the name of our Power Systems segment to Energy & Transportation. We did that to better reflect what the segment actually does, and we made the changes before our Analyst Meeting at CONEXPO last March. But if you missed it, Power Systems is now Energy & Transportation. Okay, let's get into first quarter results. At $13.2 billion, sales and revenues were flat with the first quarter of 2013 and were pretty close to what we expected. Profit was $1.61 a share, excluding restructuring costs, and $1.44, including restructuring costs. The restructuring costs were $149 million or about $0.17 a share. Most of the $149 million was related to the previously announced restructuring of our Gosselies, Belgium manufacturing facility. Now to better compare results to the first quarter of 2013, the remainder of my discussion on the quarter will be excluding restructuring charges. The profit of $1.61, excluding restructuring, was $0.29 a share higher than the first quarter of 2013. While in the aggregate, sales were unchanged from last year, if you look at our 3 large segments, there were very different stories and I'll cover each one. The most positive was Construction Industries. And it was up 20% from the first quarter of last year. And in fact, this quarter, it was our largest segment by sales, which were over $5 billion and up more than $800 million from first quarter last year. They were up about 36% in North America, 20% in Europe, Africa, Middle East, up about 10% in Asia Pacific, and were almost flat in Latin America. Now to understand what happened in Construction Industries sales, you do need to consider dealer inventory. It was a big part of why sales were relatively weak last year. Normally, during the first quarter of each year, dealers buy more from us than they deliver to customers, and they build inventory for the second quarter, we call it the selling season, and that means that for a dealer deliveries to end-users, the second quarter is usually the highest quarter of the year. Now that inventory build didn't happen for Construction last year. And that's because dealers ended 2012 with sufficient inventory of construction equipment and their inventories during the first quarter remained pretty flat a year ago. This year, that wasn't the case and dealers reverted to the more usual seasonal pattern and built inventory in the first quarter for sale in the second quarter selling season. Now in addition to the dealer inventory impact, end-user demand also increased versus the first quarter of last year. And you may have seen that in our release of dealer statistics yesterday, where dealer deliveries for the first 3 months of 2014 were up 9% for Construction Industries. Bottom line, for Construction Industries, demand's better for construction, and we believe dealer inventories are in pretty good shape relative to seasonal needs. Okay, that's Construction. For Energy & Transportation, sales were up about 8% in the quarter. Remember, Energy & Transportation is made up of several sales that serve several industries
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] Our first question today is coming from Ted Grace.
Ted Grace - Susquehanna Financial Group, LLLP, Research Division:
Susquehanna. I was hoping, Mike, maybe you could walk through, specific to Construction Industries, how production kind of progressed through 1Q, and how you would encourage us to think about production in Construction Industries in the second quarter. I realized you gave that quarterly guidance and that in itself is helpful on a consolidated basis, but could you maybe just help us understand how production and cost absorption worked through 1Q, and how you would encourage us to think about 2Q?
Michael I. DeWalt:
Yes. I'll -- we actually stretched it a little far, farther than we normally do on guidance for the rest of the year, so I'm going to be a little hesitant on breaking it out even further. But what I can tell you is this. If you go -- if you just think about how it's changed over the course of the past year, as we came into 2013 a year ago, we were cutting our inventory, our PDC finished inventory. And dealers, you would normally add inventory in the first quarter and they didn't do that. So our production a year ago was pretty low for Construction. And if you look at the first quarter of this year, dealers built inventory as this kind of a normal pattern. And as a result of that, and us not making as substantial reductions to PDC inventory, our production went up a lot. Our production was up more in the first quarter than sales. I think if you look forward for the rest of the year, you can kind of do the math on this a little bit based on us saying sales up 10% for Construction over the course of the year. The rest of the year for Construction Industries sales will be probably not massively different than the first quarter. So probably not wide variations in production because the sales numbers, the first quarter was not far off, being 1/4 of the year.
Ted Grace - Susquehanna Financial Group, LLLP, Research Division:
Okay, that's helpful. The second thing I was hoping to ask is, on the restructuring side, just an update on where things stand in Europe, specific to Belgium. And then in the press release, it seemed like that you may have cited more potential restructuring benefits in the year. I was wondering if you could just elaborate on that.
Michael I. DeWalt:
We certainly weren't trying to signal more restructuring benefits in the year. I think Gosselies' restructuring is coming along about as we expected. We got approval in the first quarter from the local officials. I was expecting maybe a question on why the entire $300 million that we were expecting for the year wasn't in the first quarter, and that's because we'll be recognizing the expense related to that as the -- as we get specifics on the individuals that have accepted the offer. So that will probably come in through the course of the year. I would say, if you look at all the restructuring activity that we have done over the course of the past year, one of the places you can see it is actually in employment. If you think about this, our sales in the first quarter of this year were about the same as the first quarter of last year. And if you look at the employment schedule in our quarterly release today, on flat sales, our employment levels are down, I think, 8,000 to 9,000 people. And I think that's where you can see the impact of not just lower volume, but also some of the restructuring activities we've taken.
Operator:
Our next question today is coming from Stephen Volkmann.
Stephen E. Volkmann - Jefferies LLC, Research Division:
It's Jefferies. And I have a question about the revision in your outlook. And I guess I'm wondering, maybe 2 parts on the Construction business. What and where are you seeing the improvement that gives you the visibility on the 5% improvement on the top line that you talked about, Mike? And then on the Resource side, I'm curious, you talked about the OE being pretty limited at this point, but can you just discuss a little bit about what you're seeing on the aftermarket side, and whether that's still declining? It sounds like it is, but what's the outlook there?
Michael I. DeWalt:
So a couple of things. One, with Construction, I think the one area, geographic area, that's, I would say, has had the most upside for us is actually North America. And you can kind of see that, I think, in the retail statistics that we've provided. It's doing pretty good. So I'd say North America is the reason for the upside. On Resource Industries, on your comment specifically, aftermarket, and in our release today, we did say that, versus the first quarter of last year within aftermarket -- or within Resource Industries, parts sales were lower than a year ago, and that's true. But they came down over the course of last year. I mean, if you look at parts sales within aftermarket -- within, I'm sorry, Resource Industries, over the last few quarters, it's been stable. It's not down like it was from Q1. So it fell during last year. It's held pretty stable over the last couple of quarters. And now we're hopeful at some point in time here, it'll start to tick up. It seems like it should.
Stephen E. Volkmann - Jefferies LLC, Research Division:
Okay. And then just a quick follow-up. I guess pricing in both of those segments was a little bit weak, a little bit negative, should we worry about that? What's the outlook there?
Michael I. DeWalt:
We're not really expecting much sale or a much price at all this year. I mean, when we came into the year, we said, I think, less than 0.5%, if memory serves me, which is, in the scheme of things for us, pretty small. I think that if you look at the 4 quarters of last year, actually, pricing levels were probably, in those businesses, a little better in the first quarter than they were for the rest of the year, so it was a little bit of a tougher comp for us. There's certainly pricing pressure out in the marketplace and that's why we're not expecting much for the year. But overall, our view on pricing, by and large, hasn't changed much from when we came into the year.
Operator:
Our next question today is coming from Eli Lustgarten.
Eli S. Lustgarten - Longbow Research LLC:
Longbow Securities. Can we talk a little bit -- when you talk about Construction Industries, you sort of -- in your commentary, you basically said that the rest of the year, volume levels went up even radically altered from the first quarter. Can you talk about the profitability of this sector for the rest of the year? I mean, you had a very impressive first quarter for lots of reasons. Are you -- I mean, I assume you're expecting double-digit operating margin in the sector, but not quite up to the first quarter level. Is that a fair representation of what to expect for the rest of the year?
Bradley M. Halverson:
Yes, Eli, this is Brad Halverson. That's a good question. One, I would say that we're extremely happy with the profitability of the Construction Industries. We had an operating margin of around 5% kind of in our core product line. If you look back a year, we finished the fourth quarter at 9.9%. We like this business to be double digits. We did have good mix. Some positive things happened in the first quarter that they gave us a record return for the Construction business at 13.6%. I would say, an expectation for the rest of the year, slightly above a double-digit number would be a good estimate, and we think that's good profitability for where this business is at right now.
Douglas R. Oberhelman:
Yes. Eli, it's Doug Oberhelman here. I would just add a comment on the pull-through objectives we've had going back a number of years of 25% on the additional $1 of revenue. And while we did much better than that in Construction, in Energy & Transport, this quarter, I would expect that over time, 25% is our objective. So we'll have some quarters that are juicy like this one and maybe some that aren't so juicy, I guess. But overall, we're after that. And as Mike said in his comments, even our Resource business on the way down held with 25%. So I'm pretty happy with that. But I'd steer it that way as an answer to your question. And if it comes up better than that, great, but there'll be quarters when we'll be talking about the other side of that.
Eli S. Lustgarten - Longbow Research LLC:
Yes. And along the same line, when you look at Energy & Transportation, with the first quarter volume up 8% and the year up 5%, we're talking, maybe slower top line growth, but I assume that we're expecting better product mix for the rest of the year that will enhance the profitability to match last year's numbers; is that sort of the expectation that we should look at in that sector?
Michael I. DeWalt:
Yes, Eli, there are -- that segment has -- serves a bunch of different industries that have, let's say, sort of different profitability characteristics. So in any quarter that you get into, you're subject to a little up and down on margin. Based on whether the increase is oil and gas or industrial engines, they have a different margin profile. If you look at what Energy & Transportation has done over the last 4 quarters, the margin rate has been within a relatively tight demand. And I don't think our view for the rest of the year would have it being dramatically up one side of the other of that. So it's been a consistent performer. And I think our view of the rest of the year is that it will continue to be a consistent performer.
Eli S. Lustgarten - Longbow Research LLC:
Yes. And one final question. Will you talk a bit of what we should expect out of the finance company this year given the changes in the first quarter, weakness in the first quarter?
Bradley M. Halverson:
Yes. Eli, this is Brad Halverson. The Financial Products division, I think has continued to perform very well. Their profit was down compared to the first quarter of last year. But in the first quarter of 2013, we had a positive adjustment due to improved warranty, improved quality. And we have a Cat Insurance business in Cat Financial. So we had, I think, it was roughly $40 million positive adjustment in the first quarter. So their results quarter-over-quarter are slightly up, their portfolio is growing slightly. Their past dues at the end of the first quarter were, I think, a record in the last 10 years or so. And so their portfolio is performing well. I think you can expect similar to Energy & Transportation, pretty good, stable performance out of them the rest of the year.
Operator:
Our next question today is coming from Seth Weber.
Seth Weber - RBC Capital Markets, LLC, Research Division:
It's RBC. I'm just trying to reconcile the comment about Construction on the aftermarket sales being flattish in the quarter. I mean, wouldn't -- if the demand is really improving, wouldn't you expect to see an increase in aftermarket sales for the Construction business?
Michael I. DeWalt:
I think aftermarket for the Construction business, for any businesses, usually related to activity. It was pretty flat for the first quarter versus a year ago. It's not as -- aftermarket is not quite as -- I don't know, maybe relative to the total, as significant as it might be in industries like mining. As activity goes up, as Construction spending goes up, as housing starts go up, you would think that would as well. It might have something to do a little bit, Seth, with a particularly bad winter. That might have put a little damper on actually work being done. Other than that, I don't know of any big reasons why it should be off that pattern.
Seth Weber - RBC Capital Markets, LLC, Research Division:
Okay. And then I guess a similar question on the Resource business. Are you seeing -- are customers still idling equipment or bleeding off of parts inventory? Because we are starting to get the sense that some commodity production volumes are going -- are rising like U.S. coal. So can you give us a sense for where you think your customers stand on their parts inventory levels? And how they're -- how soon you think we could see a pickup in that business?
Michael I. DeWalt:
I don't know about the inventory levels. But again, if you kind of look sequentially at what's going on over the last 3 months, it's not continued to go down. It's remained pretty stable over the last 3 quarters actually. I think as activity goes up, we would fully expect part sales to go up. I mean, there's a pretty strong relationship. Customers can only put off maintenance or cannibalize idle equipment or idle the oldest equipment for so long before that begins to catch up with you. And the dynamics of a business that's pretty tough on equipment, that starts to come through. So I think, at some point here, we would think that it would pick up.
Seth Weber - RBC Capital Markets, LLC, Research Division:
Okay. But do you get the sense that the idling is still occurring then?
Michael I. DeWalt:
Yes. I think there's definitely still some parked fleets. It's not the same everywhere in the world, but yes, I think -- I won't quote a number, but yes, there's definitely still parked fleets.
Operator:
Our next question today is coming from Jerry Revich.
Jerry David Revich - Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Research Division:
It's Goldman Sachs. Mike, you had nearly a 10% SG&A and R&D reduction on flat sales this quarter. Can you talk about, is there something in the comparable period or is that consistent with your expectations for the year? And then the restructuring actions in Resources on the manufacturing side came over the course of last year, and I'm just wondering how far along in harvesting those savings are we at the first quarter compared to the ultimate run rate?
Michael I. DeWalt:
Jerry, this is Mike. I'll start this. Now we had a very good first quarter. Costs were lower than a year ago, but I think we also were very cautious coming into the year. We purposefully tried to slow down -- even what we have in the hopper for program spending over the course of the year, we tried as much as we could to be very cautious on spending even what we planned to do for the first quarter. And so I think that helped. And as some of those programs that we want to do because they're the right thing for the long term, but we've been cautious on in the first quarter, I think there will be some increase in spending over the remainder of the year for programs like that. That's why if you look at the profitability of the -- in our outlook for the next 3 quarters, that's one of the reasons why it's down a little bit relative to Q1. But again, I'll go back to a comment that I made earlier. This is actually a total company question. We've taken a lot of costs out since the first quarter of last year. And I think if you look at the employment numbers, that kind of -- and particularly because this quarter was a quarter that had almost dead, flat sales, it really -- I think it really brings home the magnitude of the actions that we've taken to adjust the cost base to the current volume situation.
Bradley M. Halverson:
And I might add, this is Brad Halverson. We're really happy with the quality of our earnings. We're focused on the business model. We're growing share, little price. And we're really focused on lean deployments across the enterprise, both in our factories and in the office. And so we had increased short-term incentive pay expense in the first quarter, which we're happy about going to our employees based on our performance of roughly $140 million. So we had roughly $500 million of pure cost reduction for us. And so with the mining business that's contributing just a little over $100 million, that used to contribute $1 billion, that will come back. And where our cost structure is, we're going to continue to focus on this, but we're happy with where we're at.
Jerry David Revich - Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Research Division:
And then can you talk about what you're seeing in Western Europe for Construction and Energy & Transportation? I know you're concerned about Eastern Europe, but it sounds like cement volumes are finally starting to pick up and maybe operating hours are starting to improve. I'm wondering if you could just touch on if you're seeing a pickup in demand off of low levels in Western Europe across your businesses.
Michael I. DeWalt:
Well, I was just looking at the Construction numbers this morning. And if you look at our first quarter, actually, Construction in Europe was positive. It wasn't negative. So yes, I think it's not as robust as what we're seeing in North America. But I think it's probably little bit of a case where the economic situation there doesn't seem quite so dire. And I think the environment for customers to do some machine replacements is probably a little bit better, and we're seeing that, some positive in our Construction numbers in Europe in general.
Operator:
Our next question today is coming from Steven Fisher.
Steven Fisher - UBS Investment Bank, Research Division:
It's UBS. Just trying to get a sense of the growth rate of the segments that you moved to the all other category as it compares to the core mining business. If you didn't do the re-class, would mining still have been down 20%, or for the year, would have been kind of more or less than that? Because I guess if the stuff you moved into all other is not quite as bad, then the reduction in guidance might not be as severe.
Michael I. DeWalt:
So what we moved last year was -- last year -- for the full year anyway, it was $1.5 billion. It's the kind of product that would more closely, in most cases, more closely follow construction paving, for example. Forestry has a relationship, say, with housing construction. So it would have been a year-over-year, at least year-over-year first quarter to first quarter, it would have been a little bit positive. So it was -- it's a different profile than mining. I haven't -- honestly, I haven't looked at that level of detail in the outlook. But it wouldn't surprise me of what you say, is to some small degree, true. The difference, though, is that it's a smaller portion. It was a relatively small portion of Resource Industries. So I don't think the impact would have been that, on the percent change, the 10% to 20%. I don't think it would have been massively significant to that, but it probably -- it's certainly wouldn't have been down 20%, it would have been likely up.
Steven Fisher - UBS Investment Bank, Research Division:
Okay. And then to get to that minus 20% from minus 37% in Q1 in Resources, are you assuming any year-over-year growth at all or just kind of significant moderations in the decline?
Michael I. DeWalt:
When you say year-over-year growth, I'm -- explain a little bit more, Steve.
Steven Fisher - UBS Investment Bank, Research Division:
No, just the -- because you have to do better than the minus 37% in the balance, in the decline. Is that just a rate that's well below the 20%, or could you actually see something that's up year-over-year?
Michael I. DeWalt:
Yes. I think as we go through the year, you'll see that gap narrow. I probably wouldn't want to be so specific as to say, at fourth quarter, it's up or down. But if you just think about the trajectory of last year, it started out stronger. I mean, there were orders that were being produced and shipped, and sales were higher. And it declined as you went through the year. I think the fourth quarter, if memory serves me right, for Resource Industries, it was about 20% below the first quarter. So I think if we get any kind of a modest improvement going through this year, it'll narrow that gap. So I would think that year-over-year gap would come down probably in every quarter.
Operator:
Our next question today is coming from Andrew Casey.
Andrew M. Casey - Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, Research Division:
Wells Fargo. I just wanted to go back to the profitability for the rest of 2014 and make sure I understand the puts and takes. Should I think about this lower margin improvement relative to what you posted in Q1 as driven really by 3 things
Michael I. DeWalt:
No, I wouldn't say -- no, I don't think so. I don't think Energy & Transportation is going to be materially different probably than the first quarter. So what we're thinking about here, Andy, is that second -- or the last 9 months of the year versus the first quarter. I think the way to think about it is we usually have seasonally low costs in the first quarter. We would approve programs that our units can spend money on during the year. But it usually takes a little time for that to ramp up. So first quarter is usually light on costs, fourth quarter is usually a little heavy. So we would see program-related costs going up. Incentive comp that you mentioned is up year-over-year, but we have that in the first quarter, too, so I don't think -- there's not a material -- there's no difference really between the first quarter and the rest of the year for that. Depreciation usually kind of ramps up as we go through the year. As we put capital in place, it goes up. We have things like our annual merit plan is effective April 1, so we get a bit of a bump up in labor costs, usually from Q2 on. I think another point, and Brad mentioned this earlier, and that is margins in Construction Industries, I think relative to the first quarter, Construction Industry mix is going to probably get a little bit worse. More of the rest of the year, we would have smaller product. We expect some rental reload to occur kind of over the course of the year, more than we had in the first quarter. First quarter was a little more excavation-focused, particularly in China. So probably a little bit of a declining mix in Construction as we go through the year. And then for Resource Industries, there are programs that we cut last year. Things that we really want to do for the long term. Engineering around getting our components. And what was Bucyrus product, getting all the hundreds of thousands of part numbers into our systems for aftermarket. That all requires some spending. We delayed it last year. And as we go through the course of this year, those are programs that we want to spend money on. They're the right thing to do for the long term. The rest of our business is pretty stable, and we kind of need to get to it. So I think those are the kinds of things that caused profit over the course of the last 3 months of the year to be maybe a bit below the first quarter.
Andrew M. Casey - Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, Research Division:
Okay. And then if we go back -- thanks for the clarity but it makes me a little more cloudy in my thinking about how to get to the Q4 being the highest of the last 3 quarters. Is there anything unusual that you're building into the -- that quarterly comment? I'm wondering if there's any...
Michael I. DeWalt:
No, no. The fourth quarter for us usually is a big sales quarter. It's usually right up there with -- sometimes, the second quarter can be higher than it. But in general, the fourth quarter is usually seasonally a pretty high quarter. The third quarter and the first quarter are usually the weakest. So of the last 3, the third quarter would be the weakest. And we think the second quarter is probably close to, but a little bit below the average of the 3. We don't really have anything unique, any big, strange expenses. I'm -- when I talk about these numbers, by the way, I'm excluding restructuring costs because the timing of that could have a different effect. And of course, that's why we pulled it out. But no, we don't have anything that, off the top of my head, that I can think of that's going to be odd about any quarter. I mean, it might turn out to be that way, but certainly, we're not planning it that way.
Operator:
Our next question today is coming from Ann Duignan.
Ann P. Duignan - JP Morgan Chase & Co, Research Division:
JPMorgan. Actually my first question is for Doug if he's still in the room. Doug, it was interesting to me that you mentioned Ukraine, Russia and also China as potentially headwinds. But you didn't mention Latin America, and in particular, Brazil. Are you not concerned about the macro environment in Brazil or is that something you've been planning for all year, and so incrementally, it's not getting any worse than you might have anticipated?
Douglas R. Oberhelman:
I would put Brazil macroeconomic as one or macro situation as one of those we would be watching. I would not put it in the same category as the others that I talked about
Ann P. Duignan - JP Morgan Chase & Co, Research Division:
Okay, that's helpful, the color. And then can you -- one of you talked about -- where does Tier 4 pricing show up in your numbers? Is that in the pricing bucket or is that not included because it's separate pricing? I'm just trying to get a sense of net pricing, are you giving away the Tier 4 costs, and is that impacting margins or are Tier 4 prices being passed through but not incorporated into pricing? If you could just give us some color on what's going on with Tier 4 pricing and whether you're actually giving pricing?
Michael I. DeWalt:
Yes. So it's not included in our price realization bucket, in our kind of a waterfall chart and release. And it's because the content is different. If you're going to add, for example, say, after treatment, and you're going to raise the price for that, there are kind of 2 ways that you could deal with that. You could say, hey, I have a price increase and have a cost increase. We think that's kind of -- distorts what's really going on. The content of the machine is changing, it's a different machine. So the way we deal with it is, we net the content cost changes with the specific, in this case, Tier 4 related price changes. And we would just show the net of the 2 in the price realization number. I think as a generic comment, I would say we're not giving away Tier 4. I think it's been a pretty successful introduction of the price increases that have gone in for Tier 4. Generically, we're meant to cover the additional costs and reasonable margin. And I think, by and large, that's happening.
Operator:
Our next question today is coming from Ross Gilardi.
Ross P. Gilardi - BofA Merrill Lynch, Research Division:
Bank of America. I just had a couple of questions. From your backlog commentary, it sounds like Power Systems backlog is up fairly sharply due to locomotives. In the rest of your press -- other parts of your press release, you mentioned that well service activity is picking up. You don't sound worried about oil and gas CapEx, natural gas prices have rebounded. Why aren't you raising your Power Systems outlook today?
Michael I. DeWalt:
Well, a lot of those things we had in our original outlook. I think we were probably -- maybe in January, what we were seeing in terms of quoting activity, deals in place with customers, our expectations haven't really changed all that much as a result of this. So I think we were reasonably positive on that sector all along.
Ross P. Gilardi - BofA Merrill Lynch, Research Division:
Got you, Mike. And then could you comment a little bit more about recent order activity in oil and gas? And maybe give some color on what your exposure is to subsea drilling, which seems to be sort of the weaker spot for a lot of your peers?
Michael I. DeWalt:
Yes. I guess I would be careful of how I say this. For our oil and gas business, particularly for resets, order activity has been pretty strong. It looks like the well servicing is starting to pick back up a little bit, and that's a good thing. In terms of deep-sea drilling, I would say, in the scheme of our overall oil and gas business, that's pretty minor.
Operator:
Our next question today is coming from Mig Dobre.
Mircea Dobre - Robert W. Baird & Co. Incorporated, Research Division:
Robert W. Baird & Co. If we can, guys, going back to Brazil in Construction. Latin American revenue was slightly down this quarter. Can you maybe talk a little bit about dealer inventory levels in Latin America? Maybe also your view on fundamental demand through the year, excluding this large government order that you got from Brazil?
Michael I. DeWalt:
Yes. Dealer inventory, I think most places in the world, with a few minor product exceptions, is in pretty good shape. I mean, dealers worked on adjusting dealer inventory to current demand really over the past 1.5 years. And so I don't -- I can't see any reason that looks out of line. Now you might be able to get to a country or a dealer and maybe draw a different conclusion. But I think by overall and by region, it's not sort of out of whack with selling these. Your comment on demand in Brazil is a little bit hard to answer because, if last year, related to this, these large orders that we had that Doug mentioned a minute ago, because we had them last year. This year, the amount related that we're going to sell related to those big orders, I think, is going to be a bit less than last year. So far this year, Brazil has actually been reasonably good for us. Most of the other countries in Latin America have been down a little bit. Brazil has kind of held up for us. And I think this big order, these large orders that we're getting from the government certainly helped that. But we've had them in both years, last year and this year.
Mircea Dobre - Robert W. Baird & Co. Incorporated, Research Division:
Okay. And then maybe a quick modeling question. On the corporate expense line, there's a lot of moving pieces there with incentive comp, LIFO, legal settlements last year, can you give us some maybe color or guidance as to how you expect this line item to move through the year?
Michael I. DeWalt:
Yes. That's a tough one because I think the big variable for that will be the timing of the restructuring costs. That's probably the biggest variable. And then as you go forward, if there happens to be changes, if the outlook from here goes up or goes down, that can have an impact on the corporate, some of the corporate incentive comp. Based on the outlook where it's at now, we would think that to be pretty stable. So probably, the biggest variation going forward there is likely to be restructuring costs.
Operator:
Our next question today is coming from Andrew Kaplowitz.
Andrew Kaplowitz - Barclays Capital, Research Division:
It's Barclays. So Mike, your cash flow generation in the quarter was strong, as you said. Some of it was obviously net income growth, but can you talk about the increased focus it seems that you have on keeping working capital down or any other changes you've made to generate more cash? And is this level of cash sustainable, is this pace sustainable going forward? And then how should we think about buybacks in the subsequent quarters? I know you'll tell me you'll be opportunistic, but it seems like you've shifted your focus that way at least little bit.
Bradley M. Halverson:
Yes. Andy, this is Brad Halverson. I can start. And so I think on the cash flow side, it’s another positive story for us that we're extremely happy with. We finished the end of '13, I think, with a debt-to-cap at 29.7%. We did complete the buyback of the $1.7 billion, and we had some incentive pay expense. Even with all that, we're going to finish debt-to-cap at 30.2% at the end of the first quarter with $5 billion in cash. And we have been steadily working on our working capital management. We've made great progress, I think, in all areas. The one that I think remains the biggest opportunity for us will remain in the inventory turn area where we talked about a little bit in CONEXPO. If you look out a few years, we still see continued improvement there. And so our cash flow situation is very good. Our priorities remain the same. And the credit rating, mid A, is in good shape with our position. We're continuing to fund growth and push for organic growth. We don't see anything big. Pension plan, well-funded, we only have $200 million of required contributions the rest of the year. We will make our normal dividend decision in June to the board and announce that at that time. But our history of dividends will remain kind of consistent with our approach there. And you're right, stock repurchase will be opportunistic. But I can tell you what we will do is, when we get to that decision time, we look out a couple of years and we'll model a couple of years of trough and look at what our balance sheet strength would be. But at this point in time, Andy, yes, I would say we continue to be positive about our ability to generate cash out in the rest of the year and in the next 3 to 4 years, and we're in great shape.
Andrew Kaplowitz - Barclays Capital, Research Division:
That's helpful, Brad. And then if I just -- if I could ask you guys to step back and maybe talk about U.S. and European nonresidential construction. I mean, we've heard a lot of mixed sort of feedback this quarter. I think a lot of people were positive at CONEXPO. Your results look good, but maybe just commentary on how you see that market unfolding here this year and beyond?
Michael I. DeWalt:
Sorry, I was -- I missed that question, Andy, I was saying something to Doug here.
Andrew Kaplowitz - Barclays Capital, Research Division:
No worries. So just on U.S. and European nonres or commercial construction, a lot of mixed feedback we get on that topic. And people were pretty positive on it at CONEXPO. Your numbers look good, but maybe just commentary on the overall market.
Michael I. DeWalt:
Yes. I mean, you get -- it seems like you get mixed messages almost every day on housing. One day, it's -- prices are up, there's -- and it's a hot market. And then the day after that, you get sales of existing homes down. But if you look at the fine print of those because one of the comments is, there's not enough supply. So I think our view of housing is that it will continue, particularly for starts, kind of continue to get better. We think this year is going to be over 1 million. So I think we're pretty constructive on -- at least for the U.S. housing, I mean. But again, you've got to put that in perspective. It's still way below where it was 6 years ago, 7 years ago. So getting better, but not great. Europe has been -- I don't think I can give you a separate comment on res versus nonres there. But it has been steady positive for us over the course of the quarter. Whether that will keep up, I think depends a lot on kind of confidence there and kind of, is this economic growth starting to get a little bit better, does it continue? Because one thing you've got to remember about our business, and that is, most of what we sell at any given quarter is to replace something that's worn out. And what customers are -- it's not -- certainly, at this point, in those markets, it's not about increasing the capacity of the installed base. It's about replacing things that need to be replaced. And what you need is business confidence, reasonable results from construction activity, interest rates that are supportive, and we kind of have those things. So I'd say, we remain reasonably constructive on construction for the developed world. And you're right, the number for the first quarter kind of pan that out.
Operator:
Our final question today is coming from David Raso.
David Raso - ISI Group Inc., Research Division:
ISI. Just wanted to figure out the EPS progression the rest of the year. It seems like you're implying second quarter EPS is below 1Q and really that's only happened once in the last 20 years and that's the quarter when you were trying to absorb Bucyrus initially. So I'm just trying to figure out, are you being conservative or maybe I need to figure out more about the sales mix help in the first quarter for Construction, so I can more understand why the margins need to come down in Construction and/or do you feel that Resource Industries margins have bottomed yet? So I'm just trying to understand why we're down sequentially in 2Q.
Michael I. DeWalt:
Yes. I think a couple of things. One, even in Resource Industries, it's our intention to increase spending on programs that we really need to do for the long term. I kind of talked about those a little bit. So I think if you look at our level of spending on programs in the first quarter, it was extraordinary -- it's usually seasonally light and it was probably even more so in the first quarter this year. Now we had a rough year last year. And I'll tell you, we came into the year with the management team with a lot of caution. We were purposely trying to push as much of the program spending out that we had allowed in the plan and was in our outlook beyond the first quarter. We wanted to get part of the year under our belt to see how it was actually going to turn out before we started up some of the programs. So we have been cautious with the management team early on the timing of expense for this year. So I think we benefited by that in the first quarter, and we'll see some cost increase for things, again, that we need to do that will come later in the year. For Construction, I think there will be some margin decline. The first quarter was heavier on excavation and earthmoving. The rest of the year, proportionately, will be a bit more of the smaller BCP product. I think we expect some more rental-loading as we go through the year and that will be a little bit negative to mix, so we think that will be the case as well. So it'd be great if it was better than that. We would certainly like that, but I think our outlook for the year is kind of our reasonable and prudent view today of how it looks. Okay. Thank you, everyone. With that, we're a couple of minutes over. Thanks for sticking with us. We'll sign off.
Operator:
Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. This does conclude today's conference call. You may disconnect your phone lines at this time, and have a wonderful day. Thank you for your participation.