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Crown Castle Inc. logo
Crown Castle Inc.
CCI · US · NYSE
110.29
USD
-0.44
(0.40%)
Executives
Name Title Pay
Mr. Edward B. Adams Jr. Executive Vice President & General Counsel 859K
Mr. Christopher D. Levendos Executive Vice President & Chief Operating Officer of Fiber 965K
Mr. Robert Sean Collins Principal Accounting Officer, Vice President & Controller --
Ms. Karen Rohrkemper Senior Vice President of Project Delivery & Design and Construction - Fiber --
Kris Hinson Vice President of Corporate Finance & Treasurer --
Jeff Baker Senior Vice President of Fiber & Vertical Sales --
Mr. Daniel K. Schlanger Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer 1.13M
Mr. Michael Joseph Kavanagh Executive Vice President & Chief Operating Officer of Towers 1.18M
Mr. Steven J. Moskowitz President, Chief Executive Officer & Director --
Ms. Fiona McKone Vice President of Communications & Marketing --
Insider Transactions
Date Name Title Acquisition Or Disposition Stock / Options # of Shares Price
2024-05-09 PATEL SUNIT S director D - S-Sale Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 42 98.8
2024-01-08 PATEL SUNIT S director D - Common Stock $0.01 Par Value 0 0
2024-07-23 Kavanagh Michael Joseph EVP & COO-Towers D - S-Sale Common Stock $0.01 Par Value 10883 103.725
2024-06-30 Kelley Philip M officer - 0 0
2024-05-31 Melone Anthony J. director A - M-Exempt Common Stock $0.01 Par Value 39068 0
2024-05-31 Melone Anthony J. director D - F-InKind Common Stock $0.01 Par Value 18464 99.63
2024-05-31 Melone Anthony J. director D - M-Exempt Time RSUs 39068 0
2024-04-02 Genrich Jason director A - P-Purchase Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 18 103.17
2024-01-18 Genrich Jason director A - P-Purchase Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 99 109.32
2024-01-08 Genrich Jason director D - Common Stock $0.01 Par Value 0 0
2022-09-08 Kavanagh Michael Joseph EVP & COO-Towers A - P-Purchase Common Stock $0.01 Par Value 12 173.378
2022-09-07 Kavanagh Michael Joseph EVP & COO-Towers A - P-Purchase Common Stock $0.01 Par Value 11 172.665
2022-09-06 Kavanagh Michael Joseph EVP & COO-Towers A - P-Purchase Common Stock $0.01 Par Value 4 169.457
2024-04-11 MOSKOWITZ STEVEN J President and CEO A - A-Award Time RSUs 48511 0
2024-04-11 MOSKOWITZ STEVEN J President and CEO A - A-Award Time RSUs 23664 0
2024-04-11 MOSKOWITZ STEVEN J President and CEO D - Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 0 0
2024-04-10 Chan Edmond EVP and CIO A - M-Exempt Time RSUs 2260 0
2024-04-10 Chan Edmond EVP and CIO A - M-Exempt Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 2260 0
2024-04-10 Chan Edmond EVP and CIO D - F-InKind Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 520 102
2024-03-05 Collins Robert Sean Vice President and Controller D - S-Sale Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 3250 113.49
2024-02-21 SINGER BRADLEY E director A - A-Award Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 2135 0
2024-02-21 FITZGERALD ARI Q director A - A-Award Common Stock $0.01 Par Value 2135 0
2024-02-21 PATEL SUNIT S director A - A-Award Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 2135 0
2024-02-21 Stephens Kevin A director A - A-Award Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 2135 0
2024-02-21 Thornton Matthew III director A - A-Award Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 2135 0
2024-02-21 Goldsmith Andrea Jo director A - A-Award Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 2135 0
2024-02-21 CHRISTY LANGENFELD CYNTHIA K director A - A-Award Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 2135 0
2024-02-21 Genrich Jason director A - A-Award Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 2135 0
2024-02-21 Jones Tammy director A - A-Award Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 2135 0
2024-02-21 KABAT KEVIN T director A - A-Award Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 2135 0
2024-02-21 Bartolo P Robert director A - A-Award Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 3528 0
2024-02-21 Kelley Philip M EVP, Corp Dev & Strategy A - A-Award Time RSUs 8560 0
2024-02-21 Kavanagh Michael Joseph EVP & COO-Towers A - A-Award Time RSUs 14886 0
2024-02-21 SCHLANGER DANIEL K EVP & Chief Financial Officer A - A-Award Time RSUs 15352 0
2024-02-21 Levendos Christopher EVP & COO - Fiber A - A-Award Time RSUs 16189 0
2024-02-21 Chan Edmond EVP and CIO A - A-Award Time RSUs 14886 0
2024-02-21 Collins Robert Sean Vice President and Controller A - A-Award Time RSUs 2388 0
2024-02-21 Adams Edward B JR EVP and General Counsel A - A-Award Time RSUs 10793 0
2024-02-19 Levendos Christopher EVP & COO - Fiber A - M-Exempt Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 3911 0
2024-02-19 Levendos Christopher EVP & COO - Fiber D - F-InKind Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 2088 108.22
2024-02-19 Levendos Christopher EVP & COO - Fiber A - M-Exempt Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 2678 0
2024-02-19 Levendos Christopher EVP & COO - Fiber D - M-Exempt Time RSUs 3911 0
2024-02-19 Levendos Christopher EVP & COO - Fiber A - M-Exempt Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 1769 0
2024-02-19 Levendos Christopher EVP & COO - Fiber D - M-Exempt Time RSUs 2678 0
2024-02-19 Levendos Christopher EVP & COO - Fiber D - M-Exempt Time RSUs 1769 0
2024-02-19 SCHLANGER DANIEL K EVP & Chief Financial Officer A - M-Exempt Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 3585 0
2024-02-19 SCHLANGER DANIEL K EVP & Chief Financial Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 1999 108.22
2024-02-19 SCHLANGER DANIEL K EVP & Chief Financial Officer A - M-Exempt Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 2428 0
2024-02-19 SCHLANGER DANIEL K EVP & Chief Financial Officer A - M-Exempt Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 2193 0
2024-02-19 SCHLANGER DANIEL K EVP & Chief Financial Officer D - M-Exempt Time RSUs 3585 0
2024-02-19 SCHLANGER DANIEL K EVP & Chief Financial Officer D - M-Exempt Time RSUs 2428 0
2024-02-19 SCHLANGER DANIEL K EVP & Chief Financial Officer D - M-Exempt Time RSUs 2193 0
2024-02-19 Collins Robert Sean Vice President and Controller A - M-Exempt Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 1465 0
2024-02-19 Collins Robert Sean Vice President and Controller D - F-InKind Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 691 108.22
2024-02-19 Collins Robert Sean Vice President and Controller A - M-Exempt Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 356 0
2024-02-19 Collins Robert Sean Vice President and Controller A - M-Exempt Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 360 0
2024-02-19 Collins Robert Sean Vice President and Controller D - M-Exempt Time RSUs 1465 0
2024-02-19 Collins Robert Sean Vice President and Controller D - M-Exempt Time RSUs 356 0
2024-02-19 Collins Robert Sean Vice President and Controller D - M-Exempt Time RSUs 360 0
2024-02-19 Adams Edward B JR EVP and General Counsel A - M-Exempt Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 2433 0
2024-02-19 Adams Edward B JR EVP and General Counsel D - F-InKind Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 818 108.22
2024-02-19 Adams Edward B JR EVP and General Counsel A - M-Exempt Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 490 0
2024-02-19 Adams Edward B JR EVP and General Counsel A - M-Exempt Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 422 0
2024-02-19 Adams Edward B JR EVP and General Counsel D - M-Exempt Time RSUs 2433 0
2024-02-19 Adams Edward B JR EVP and General Counsel D - M-Exempt Time RSUs 490 0
2024-02-19 Adams Edward B JR EVP and General Counsel D - M-Exempt Time RSUs 422 0
2024-02-19 Kelley Philip M EVP, Corp Dev & Strategy A - M-Exempt Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 1999 0
2024-02-19 Kelley Philip M EVP, Corp Dev & Strategy D - F-InKind Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 1234 108.22
2024-02-19 Kelley Philip M EVP, Corp Dev & Strategy A - M-Exempt Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 1428 0
2024-02-19 Kelley Philip M EVP, Corp Dev & Strategy A - M-Exempt Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 1415 0
2024-02-19 Kelley Philip M EVP, Corp Dev & Strategy D - M-Exempt Time RSUs 1999 0
2024-02-19 Kelley Philip M EVP, Corp Dev & Strategy D - M-Exempt Time RSUs 1428 0
2024-02-19 Kelley Philip M EVP, Corp Dev & Strategy D - M-Exempt Time RSUs 1415 0
2024-02-19 Kavanagh Michael Joseph EVP & COO-Towers A - M-Exempt Common Stock $0.01 Par Value 3303 0
2024-02-19 Kavanagh Michael Joseph EVP & COO-Towers D - F-InKind Common Stock $0.01 Par Value 1924 108.22
2024-02-19 Kavanagh Michael Joseph EVP & COO-Towers A - M-Exempt Common Stock $0.01 Par Value 2428 0
2024-02-19 Kavanagh Michael Joseph EVP & COO-Towers A - M-Exempt Common Stock $0.01 Par Value 1981 0
2024-02-19 Kavanagh Michael Joseph EVP & COO-Towers D - M-Exempt Time RSUs 3303 0
2024-02-19 Kavanagh Michael Joseph EVP & COO-Towers D - M-Exempt Time RSUs 2428 0
2024-02-19 Kavanagh Michael Joseph EVP & COO-Towers D - M-Exempt Time RSUs 1981 0
2024-02-10 Adams Edward B JR EVP and General Counsel A - M-Exempt Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 2438 0
2024-02-10 Adams Edward B JR EVP and General Counsel D - F-InKind Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 646 108.4
2024-02-10 Adams Edward B JR EVP and General Counsel D - M-Exempt Time RSUs 2438 0
2024-01-31 Nichol Laura B officer - 0 0
2024-02-02 MORELAND W BENJAMIN - 0 0
2024-01-16 Brown Jay A. President and CEO - 0 0
2024-01-23 SCHLANGER DANIEL K EVP & Chief Financial Officer A - A-Award Time RSUs 21085 0
2024-01-17 SINGER BRADLEY E director A - A-Award Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 829 0
2024-01-17 SINGER BRADLEY E director D - Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 0 0
2024-01-16 Chan Edmond EVP and CIO A - A-Award Time RSUs 13534 0
2024-01-16 Chan Edmond EVP and CIO D - Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 0 0
2024-01-16 Melone Anthony J. Interim President and CEO A - A-Award Time RSUs 39068 0
2024-01-08 PATEL SUNIT S director A - A-Award Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 784 0
2024-01-08 PATEL SUNIT S director D - Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 0 0
2024-01-08 Genrich Jason director A - A-Award Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 784 0
2024-01-08 Genrich Jason director D - Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 0 0
2023-12-14 Collins Robert Sean Vice President and Controller D - S-Sale Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 1500 114.16
2023-12-10 Levendos Christopher EVP & COO A - M-Exempt Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 1952 0
2023-12-10 Levendos Christopher EVP & COO D - F-InKind Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 769 116.07
2023-12-10 Levendos Christopher EVP & COO D - M-Exempt Time RSUs 1952 0
2023-09-30 Piche Catherine officer - 0 0
2023-09-10 Piche Catherine EVP & COO-Towers A - M-Exempt Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 1683 0
2023-09-10 Piche Catherine EVP & COO-Towers D - F-InKind Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 744 99.24
2023-09-10 Piche Catherine EVP & COO-Towers D - M-Exempt Time RSUs 1683 0
2023-09-10 Adams Edward B JR EVP and General Counsel A - M-Exempt Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 172 0
2023-09-10 Adams Edward B JR EVP and General Counsel D - F-InKind Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 42 99.24
2023-09-10 Adams Edward B JR EVP and General Counsel D - M-Exempt Time RSUs 172 0
2023-09-01 POPE MARIA M director A - A-Award Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 902 0
2023-09-01 POPE MARIA M director D - Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 0 0
2023-08-01 KABAT KEVIN T director A - A-Award Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 831 0
2023-08-01 KABAT KEVIN T director D - Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 0 0
2023-05-02 Stephens Kevin A director A - P-Purchase Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 1000 117.996
2023-04-27 Nichol Laura B EVP - Business Support D - S-Sale Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 5000 120.97
2023-04-25 Nichol Laura B EVP - Business Support D - S-Sale Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 5000 122.564
2023-04-25 Levendos Christopher EVP & COO - Fiber D - S-Sale Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 14472 124.044
2023-02-22 Goldsmith Andrea Jo director A - A-Award Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 1713 0
2023-02-22 Bartolo P Robert director A - A-Award Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 2458 0
2023-02-22 CHRISTY LANGENFELD CYNTHIA K director A - A-Award Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 1713 0
2023-02-22 FITZGERALD ARI Q director A - A-Award Common Stock $0.01 Par Value 1713 0
2023-02-22 Jones Tammy director A - A-Award Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 1713 0
2023-02-22 Melone Anthony J. director A - A-Award Common Stock $0.01 Par Value 1713 0
2023-02-22 MORELAND W BENJAMIN director A - A-Award Common Stock $0.01 Par Value 1713 0
2023-02-22 Stephens Kevin A director A - A-Award Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 1713 0
2023-02-22 Thornton Matthew III director A - A-Award Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 1713 0
2023-02-22 Brown Jay A. President and CEO A - A-Award Performance RSUs 37554 0
2023-02-22 Brown Jay A. President and CEO A - A-Award Time RSUs 33899 0
2023-02-22 Brown Jay A. President and CEO A - A-Award Performance RSUs 32125 0
2023-02-22 SCHLANGER DANIEL K EVP & Chief Financial Officer A - A-Award Performance RSUs 11916 0
2023-02-22 SCHLANGER DANIEL K EVP & Chief Financial Officer A - A-Award Time RSUs 10756 0
2023-02-22 SCHLANGER DANIEL K EVP & Chief Financial Officer A - A-Award Performance RSUs 10193 0
2023-02-22 Piche Catherine EVP & COO-Towers A - A-Award Performance RSUs 12999 0
2023-02-22 Piche Catherine EVP & COO-Towers A - A-Award Time RSUs 11734 0
2023-02-22 Piche Catherine EVP & COO-Towers A - A-Award Performance RSUs 11120 0
2023-02-22 Nichol Laura B EVP - Business Support A - A-Award Performance RSUs 5488 0
2023-02-22 Nichol Laura B EVP - Business Support A - A-Award Time RSUs 4954 0
2023-02-22 Nichol Laura B EVP - Business Support A - A-Award Performance RSUs 4695 0
2023-02-22 Levendos Christopher EVP & COO - Fiber A - A-Award Performance RSUs 12999 0
2023-02-22 Levendos Christopher EVP & COO - Fiber A - A-Award Time RSUs 11734 0
2023-02-22 Levendos Christopher EVP & COO - Fiber A - A-Award Performance RSUs 11120 0
2023-02-22 Kelley Philip M EVP, Corp Dev & Strategy A - A-Award Performance RSUs 6644 0
2023-02-22 Kelley Philip M EVP, Corp Dev & Strategy A - A-Award Time RSUs 5997 0
2023-02-22 Kelley Philip M EVP, Corp Dev & Strategy A - A-Award Performance RSUs 5683 0
2023-02-22 Kavanagh Michael Joseph EVP & Chief Commercial Officer A - A-Award Performance RSUs 10977 0
2023-02-22 Kavanagh Michael Joseph EVP & Chief Commercial Officer A - A-Award Time RSUs 9909 0
2023-02-22 Kavanagh Michael Joseph EVP & Chief Commercial Officer A - A-Award Performance RSUs 9390 0
2023-02-22 Collins Robert Sean Vice President and Controller A - A-Award Time RSUs 4397 0
2023-02-22 Collins Robert Sean Vice President and Controller A - A-Award Performance RSUs 1532 0
2023-02-22 Collins Robert Sean Vice President and Controller A - A-Award Performance RSUs 1297 0
2023-02-22 Adams Edward B JR EVP and General Counsel A - A-Award Performance RSUs 8088 0
2023-02-21 Adams Edward B JR EVP and General Counsel A - A-Award Time RSUs 7317 0
2023-02-22 Adams Edward B JR EVP and General Counsel A - A-Award Time RSUs 7301 0
2023-02-22 Adams Edward B JR EVP and General Counsel A - A-Award Performance RSUs 6919 0
2023-02-21 Adams Edward B JR EVP and General Counsel D - Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 0 0
2023-02-21 Adams Edward B JR EVP and General Counsel I - Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 0 0
2023-02-21 Adams Edward B JR EVP and General Counsel D - Time RSUs 981 0
2023-02-21 Adams Edward B JR EVP and General Counsel D - Performance RSUs 1701 0
2023-02-19 SCHLANGER DANIEL K EVP & Chief Financial Officer A - M-Exempt Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 2428 0
2023-02-19 SCHLANGER DANIEL K EVP & Chief Financial Officer A - M-Exempt Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 2193 0
2023-02-19 SCHLANGER DANIEL K EVP & Chief Financial Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 3505 140.68
2023-02-19 SCHLANGER DANIEL K EVP & Chief Financial Officer A - M-Exempt Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 2026 0
2023-02-19 SCHLANGER DANIEL K EVP & Chief Financial Officer A - M-Exempt Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 4882 0
2023-02-19 SCHLANGER DANIEL K EVP & Chief Financial Officer D - M-Exempt Time RSUs 2428 0
2023-02-19 SCHLANGER DANIEL K EVP & Chief Financial Officer D - M-Exempt Time RSUs 2193 0
2023-02-19 SCHLANGER DANIEL K EVP & Chief Financial Officer D - M-Exempt Performance RSUs 4882 0
2023-02-19 SCHLANGER DANIEL K EVP & Chief Financial Officer D - M-Exempt Time RSUs 2026 0
2023-02-19 Levendos Christopher EVP & COO - Fiber A - M-Exempt Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 2677 0
2023-02-19 Levendos Christopher EVP & COO - Fiber D - F-InKind Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 2410 140.68
2023-02-19 Levendos Christopher EVP & COO - Fiber A - M-Exempt Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 1769 0
2023-02-19 Levendos Christopher EVP & COO - Fiber A - M-Exempt Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 1260 0
2023-02-19 Levendos Christopher EVP & COO - Fiber A - M-Exempt Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 3035 0
2023-02-19 Levendos Christopher EVP & COO - Fiber D - M-Exempt Time RSUs 2677 0
2023-02-19 Levendos Christopher EVP & COO - Fiber D - M-Exempt Time RSUs 1769 0
2023-02-19 Levendos Christopher EVP & COO - Fiber D - M-Exempt Performance RSUs 3035 0
2023-02-19 Levendos Christopher EVP & COO - Fiber D - M-Exempt Time RSUs 1260 0
2023-02-19 Brown Jay A. President and CEO A - M-Exempt Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 8212 0
2023-02-19 Brown Jay A. President and CEO A - M-Exempt Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 7075 0
2023-02-19 Brown Jay A. President and CEO D - F-InKind Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 13868 140.68
2023-02-19 Brown Jay A. President and CEO A - M-Exempt Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 6637 0
2023-02-19 Brown Jay A. President and CEO A - M-Exempt Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 15992 0
2023-02-19 Brown Jay A. President and CEO D - M-Exempt Time RSUs 8212 0
2023-02-19 Brown Jay A. President and CEO D - M-Exempt Time RSUs 7075 0
2023-02-19 Brown Jay A. President and CEO D - M-Exempt Performance RSUs 15992 0
2023-02-19 Brown Jay A. President and CEO D - M-Exempt Time RSUs 6637 0
2023-02-19 Kelley Philip M EVP, Corp Dev & Strategy A - M-Exempt Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 1428 0
2023-02-19 Kelley Philip M EVP, Corp Dev & Strategy A - M-Exempt Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 1415 0
2023-02-19 Kelley Philip M EVP, Corp Dev & Strategy D - F-InKind Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 1919 140.68
2023-02-19 Kelley Philip M EVP, Corp Dev & Strategy A - M-Exempt Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 1363 0
2023-02-19 Kelley Philip M EVP, Corp Dev & Strategy A - M-Exempt Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 3282 0
2023-02-19 Kelley Philip M EVP, Corp Dev & Strategy D - M-Exempt Time RSUs 1428 0
2023-02-19 Kelley Philip M EVP, Corp Dev & Strategy D - M-Exempt Time RSUs 1415 0
2023-02-19 Kelley Philip M EVP, Corp Dev & Strategy D - M-Exempt Performance RSUs 3282 0
2023-02-19 Kelley Philip M EVP, Corp Dev & Strategy D - M-Exempt Time RSUs 1363 0
2023-02-19 Kavanagh Michael Joseph EVP & Chief Commercial Officer A - M-Exempt Common Stock $0.01 Par Value 2428 0
2023-02-19 Kavanagh Michael Joseph EVP & Chief Commercial Officer A - M-Exempt Common Stock $0.01 Par Value 1981 0
2023-02-19 Kavanagh Michael Joseph EVP & Chief Commercial Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock $0.01 Par Value 2529 140.68
2023-02-19 Kavanagh Michael Joseph EVP & Chief Commercial Officer A - M-Exempt Common Stock $0.01 Par Value 1363 0
2023-02-19 Kavanagh Michael Joseph EVP & Chief Commercial Officer A - M-Exempt Common Stock $0.01 Par Value 3282 0
2023-02-19 Kavanagh Michael Joseph EVP & Chief Commercial Officer D - M-Exempt Time RSUs 2428 0
2023-02-19 Kavanagh Michael Joseph EVP & Chief Commercial Officer D - M-Exempt Time RSUs 1981 0
2023-02-19 Kavanagh Michael Joseph EVP & Chief Commercial Officer D - M-Exempt Performance RSUs 3282 0
2023-02-19 Kavanagh Michael Joseph EVP & Chief Commercial Officer D - M-Exempt Time RSUs 1363 0
2023-02-19 Piche Catherine EVP & COO-Towers A - M-Exempt Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 2677 0
2023-02-19 Piche Catherine EVP & COO-Towers D - F-InKind Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 1580 140.68
2023-02-19 Piche Catherine EVP & COO-Towers A - M-Exempt Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 571 0
2023-02-19 Piche Catherine EVP & COO-Towers A - M-Exempt Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 595 0
2023-02-19 Piche Catherine EVP & COO-Towers A - M-Exempt Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 1432 0
2023-02-19 Piche Catherine EVP & COO-Towers D - M-Exempt Time RSUs 2677 0
2023-02-19 Piche Catherine EVP & COO-Towers D - M-Exempt Time RSUs 571 0
2023-02-19 Piche Catherine EVP & COO-Towers D - M-Exempt Time RSUs 595 0
2023-02-19 Piche Catherine EVP & COO-Towers D - M-Exempt Performance RSUs 1432 0
2023-02-19 Collins Robert Sean Vice President and Controller A - M-Exempt Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 355 0
2023-02-19 Collins Robert Sean Vice President and Controller A - M-Exempt Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 360 0
2023-02-19 Collins Robert Sean Vice President and Controller D - F-InKind Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 650 140.68
2023-02-19 Collins Robert Sean Vice President and Controller A - M-Exempt Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 408 0
2023-02-19 Collins Robert Sean Vice President and Controller A - M-Exempt Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 980 0
2023-02-19 Collins Robert Sean Vice President and Controller D - M-Exempt Time RSUs 355 0
2023-02-19 Collins Robert Sean Vice President and Controller D - M-Exempt Time RSUs 360 0
2023-02-19 Collins Robert Sean Vice President and Controller D - M-Exempt Time RSUs 408 0
2023-02-19 Collins Robert Sean Vice President and Controller D - M-Exempt Performance RSUs 980 0
2023-02-19 Nichol Laura B EVP - Business Support A - M-Exempt Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 1071 0
2023-02-19 Nichol Laura B EVP - Business Support A - M-Exempt Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 1415 0
2023-02-19 Nichol Laura B EVP - Business Support D - F-InKind Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 1225 140.68
2023-02-19 Nichol Laura B EVP - Business Support A - M-Exempt Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 699 0
2023-02-19 Nichol Laura B EVP - Business Support A - M-Exempt Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 1682 0
2023-02-19 Nichol Laura B EVP - Business Support D - M-Exempt Time RSUs 1071 0
2023-02-19 Nichol Laura B EVP - Business Support D - M-Exempt Time RSUs 1415 0
2023-02-19 Nichol Laura B EVP - Business Support D - M-Exempt Time RSUs 699 0
2023-02-19 Nichol Laura B EVP - Business Support D - M-Exempt Performance RSUs 1682 0
2023-02-01 Melone Anthony J. director D - G-Gift Common Stock $0.01 Par Value 1890 0
2022-12-31 Simon Kenneth Jay officer - 0 0
2022-12-10 Levendos Christopher EVP & COO - Fiber A - M-Exempt Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 1951 0
2022-12-10 Levendos Christopher EVP & COO - Fiber D - F-InKind Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 768 139.82
2022-12-10 Levendos Christopher EVP & COO - Fiber D - M-Exempt Time RSUs 1951 0
2022-10-24 Stephens Kevin A director A - P-Purchase Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 2000 123.5
2022-10-21 Thornton Matthew III director A - P-Purchase Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 1215 123.784
2022-09-10 Piche Catherine EVP & COO-Towers A - M-Exempt Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 1683 0
2022-09-10 Piche Catherine EVP & COO-Towers D - F-InKind Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 748 174.55
2022-09-10 Piche Catherine EVP & COO-Towers D - M-Exempt Time RSUs 1683 0
2022-07-22 Stephens Kevin A A - P-Purchase Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 699 173.597
2022-05-19 Bartolo P Robert A - A-Award Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 347 178.38
2022-05-19 HOGAN LEE W - 0 0
2022-05-19 MARTIN J LANDIS - 0 0
2022-05-03 Collins Robert Sean Vice President and Controller D - S-Sale Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 1000 185.435
2022-05-03 Collins Robert Sean Vice President and Controller D - S-Sale Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 1000 185.435
2022-04-29 Kavanagh Michael Joseph EVP & Chief Commercial Officer D - S-Sale Common Stock $0.01 Par Value 1150 191.327
2022-04-25 Levendos Christopher EVP & COO - Fiber D - S-Sale Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 11000 192.794
2022-03-17 Piche Catherine EVP & COO-Towers D - S-Sale Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 2500 176.411
2022-03-07 Brown Jay A. President and CEO D - G-Gift Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 18000 0
2022-02-24 Melone Anthony J. director D - G-Gift Common Stock $0.01 Par Value 1575 0
2022-02-22 Stephens Kevin A director A - P-Purchase Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 2000 162.3
2022-02-19 Collins Robert Sean Vice President and Controller A - M-Exempt Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 359 0
2022-02-19 Collins Robert Sean Vice President and Controller A - M-Exempt Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 408 0
2022-02-19 Collins Robert Sean Vice President and Controller A - M-Exempt Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 459 0
2022-02-19 Collins Robert Sean Vice President and Controller A - M-Exempt Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 3925 0
2022-02-19 Collins Robert Sean Vice President and Controller D - F-InKind Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 2113 162.34
2022-02-19 Collins Robert Sean Vice President and Controller A - M-Exempt Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 1745 0
2022-02-19 Collins Robert Sean Vice President and Controller D - M-Exempt Time RSUs 359 0
2022-02-19 Collins Robert Sean Vice President and Controller D - M-Exempt Time RSUs 408 0
2022-02-19 Collins Robert Sean Vice President and Controller D - M-Exempt Time RSUs 459 0
2022-02-19 Collins Robert Sean Vice President and Controller D - M-Exempt Performance RSUs 3925 0
2022-02-19 Kavanagh Michael Joseph EVP & Chief Commercial Officer A - M-Exempt Common Stock $0.01 Par Value 1980 0
2022-02-19 Kavanagh Michael Joseph EVP & Chief Commercial Officer A - M-Exempt Common Stock $0.01 Par Value 1362 0
2022-02-19 Kavanagh Michael Joseph EVP & Chief Commercial Officer A - M-Exempt Common Stock $0.01 Par Value 1808 0
2022-02-19 Kavanagh Michael Joseph EVP & Chief Commercial Officer A - M-Exempt Common Stock $0.01 Par Value 15465 0
2022-02-19 Kavanagh Michael Joseph EVP & Chief Commercial Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock $0.01 Par Value 9919 162.34
2022-02-19 Kavanagh Michael Joseph EVP & Chief Commercial Officer A - M-Exempt Common Stock $0.01 Par Value 6874 0
2022-02-19 Kavanagh Michael Joseph EVP & Chief Commercial Officer D - M-Exempt Time RSUs 1980 0
2022-02-19 Kavanagh Michael Joseph EVP & Chief Commercial Officer D - M-Exempt Time RSUs 1362 0
2022-02-19 Kavanagh Michael Joseph EVP & Chief Commercial Officer D - M-Exempt Performance RSUs 15465 0
2022-02-19 Kavanagh Michael Joseph EVP & Chief Commercial Officer D - M-Exempt Time RSUs 1808 0
2022-02-19 Simon Kenneth Jay EVP and General Counsel A - M-Exempt Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 1697 0
2022-02-19 Simon Kenneth Jay EVP and General Counsel A - M-Exempt Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 1607 0
2022-02-19 Simon Kenneth Jay EVP and General Counsel A - M-Exempt Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 2248 0
2022-02-19 Simon Kenneth Jay EVP and General Counsel A - M-Exempt Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 19227 0
2022-02-19 Simon Kenneth Jay EVP and General Counsel D - F-InKind Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 12214 162.34
2022-02-19 Simon Kenneth Jay EVP and General Counsel A - M-Exempt Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 8546 0
2022-02-19 Simon Kenneth Jay EVP and General Counsel D - M-Exempt Time RSUs 1697 0
2022-02-19 Simon Kenneth Jay EVP and General Counsel D - M-Exempt Time RSUs 1607 0
2022-02-19 Simon Kenneth Jay EVP and General Counsel D - M-Exempt Performance RSUs 19227 0
2022-02-19 Simon Kenneth Jay EVP and General Counsel D - M-Exempt Time RSUs 2248 0
2022-02-19 Nichol Laura B EVP - Business Support A - M-Exempt Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 1414 0
2022-02-19 Nichol Laura B EVP - Business Support A - M-Exempt Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 698 0
2022-02-19 Nichol Laura B EVP - Business Support A - M-Exempt Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 782 0
2022-02-19 Nichol Laura B EVP - Business Support A - M-Exempt Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 6687 0
2022-02-19 Nichol Laura B EVP - Business Support D - F-InKind Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 4047 162.34
2022-02-19 Nichol Laura B EVP - Business Support A - M-Exempt Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 2971 0
2022-02-19 Nichol Laura B EVP - Business Support D - M-Exempt Time RSUs 1414 0
2022-02-19 Nichol Laura B EVP - Business Support D - M-Exempt Time RSUs 698 0
2022-02-19 Nichol Laura B EVP - Business Support D - M-Exempt Time RSUs 782 0
2022-02-19 Nichol Laura B EVP - Business Support D - M-Exempt Performance RSUs 6687 0
2022-02-19 Piche Catherine EVP & COO-Towers A - M-Exempt Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 571 0
2022-02-19 Piche Catherine EVP & COO-Towers A - M-Exempt Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 595 0
2022-02-19 Piche Catherine EVP & COO-Towers A - M-Exempt Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 666 0
2022-02-19 Piche Catherine EVP & COO-Towers A - M-Exempt Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 5694 0
2022-02-19 Piche Catherine EVP & COO-Towers D - F-InKind Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 3576 162.34
2022-02-19 Piche Catherine EVP & COO-Towers A - M-Exempt Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 2531 0
2022-02-19 Piche Catherine EVP & COO-Towers D - M-Exempt Time RSUs 571 0
2022-02-19 Piche Catherine EVP & COO-Towers D - M-Exempt Time RSUs 595 0
2022-02-19 Piche Catherine EVP & COO-Towers D - M-Exempt Performance RSUs 5694 0
2022-02-19 Piche Catherine EVP & COO-Towers D - M-Exempt Time RSUs 666 0
2022-02-19 Kelley Philip M EVP, Corp Dev & Strategy A - M-Exempt Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 1414 0
2022-02-19 Kelley Philip M EVP, Corp Dev & Strategy A - M-Exempt Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 1362 0
2022-02-19 Kelley Philip M EVP, Corp Dev & Strategy A - M-Exempt Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 1808 0
2022-02-19 Kelley Philip M EVP, Corp Dev & Strategy A - M-Exempt Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 15465 0
2022-02-19 Kelley Philip M EVP, Corp Dev & Strategy D - F-InKind Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 9700 162.34
2022-02-19 Kelley Philip M EVP, Corp Dev & Strategy A - M-Exempt Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 6874 0
2022-02-19 Kelley Philip M EVP, Corp Dev & Strategy D - M-Exempt Time RSUs 1414 0
2022-02-19 Kelley Philip M EVP, Corp Dev & Strategy D - M-Exempt Time RSUs 1362 0
2022-02-19 Kelley Philip M EVP, Corp Dev & Strategy D - M-Exempt Time RSUs 1808 0
2022-02-19 Kelley Philip M EVP, Corp Dev & Strategy D - M-Exempt Performance RSUs 15465 0
2022-02-19 Brown Jay A. President and CEO A - M-Exempt Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 7074 0
2022-02-19 Brown Jay A. President and CEO A - M-Exempt Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 6637 0
2022-02-19 Brown Jay A. President and CEO A - M-Exempt Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 8602 0
2022-02-19 Brown Jay A. President and CEO A - M-Exempt Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 73564 0
2022-02-19 Brown Jay A. President and CEO D - F-InKind Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 49679 162.34
2022-02-19 Brown Jay A. President and CEO A - M-Exempt Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 32699 0
2022-02-19 Brown Jay A. President and CEO D - M-Exempt Time RSUs 7074 0
2022-02-19 Brown Jay A. President and CEO D - M-Exempt Time RSUs 6637 0
2022-02-19 Brown Jay A. President and CEO D - M-Exempt Time RSUs 8602 0
2022-02-19 Brown Jay A. President and CEO D - M-Exempt Performance RSUs 73564 0
2022-02-19 Levendos Christopher EVP & COO - Fiber A - M-Exempt Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 1768 0
2022-02-19 Levendos Christopher EVP & COO - Fiber A - M-Exempt Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 1260 0
2022-02-19 Levendos Christopher EVP & COO - Fiber A - M-Exempt Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 1711 0
2022-02-19 Levendos Christopher EVP & COO - Fiber A - M-Exempt Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 14628 0
2022-02-19 Levendos Christopher EVP & COO - Fiber D - F-InKind Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 12312 162.34
2022-02-19 Levendos Christopher EVP & COO - Fiber A - M-Exempt Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 6502 0
2022-02-19 Levendos Christopher EVP & COO - Fiber D - M-Exempt Time RSUs 1768 0
2022-02-19 Levendos Christopher EVP & COO - Fiber D - M-Exempt Time RSUs 1260 0
2022-02-19 Levendos Christopher EVP & COO - Fiber D - M-Exempt Performance RSUs 14628 0
2022-02-19 Levendos Christopher EVP & COO - Fiber D - M-Exempt Time RSUs 1711 0
2022-02-19 SCHLANGER DANIEL K EVP & Chief Financial Officer A - M-Exempt Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 2193 0
2022-02-19 SCHLANGER DANIEL K EVP & Chief Financial Officer A - M-Exempt Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 2026 0
2022-02-19 SCHLANGER DANIEL K EVP & Chief Financial Officer A - M-Exempt Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 2688 0
2022-02-19 SCHLANGER DANIEL K EVP & Chief Financial Officer A - M-Exempt Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 22989 0
2022-02-19 SCHLANGER DANIEL K EVP & Chief Financial Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 14887 162.34
2022-02-19 SCHLANGER DANIEL K EVP & Chief Financial Officer A - M-Exempt Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 10217 0
2022-02-19 SCHLANGER DANIEL K EVP & Chief Financial Officer D - M-Exempt Time RSUs 2193 0
2022-02-19 SCHLANGER DANIEL K EVP & Chief Financial Officer D - M-Exempt Time RSUs 2026 0
2022-02-19 SCHLANGER DANIEL K EVP & Chief Financial Officer D - M-Exempt Performance RSUs 22989 0
2022-02-19 SCHLANGER DANIEL K EVP & Chief Financial Officer D - M-Exempt Time RSUs 2688 0
2022-02-17 Collins Robert Sean Vice President and Controller A - A-Award Performance RSUs 1235 0
2022-02-17 Collins Robert Sean Vice President and Controller A - A-Award Time RSUs 1067 0
2022-02-17 Collins Robert Sean Vice President and Controller A - A-Award Performance RSUs 847 0
2022-02-17 Nichol Laura B EVP - Business Support A - A-Award Performance RSUs 3718 0
2022-02-17 Nichol Laura B EVP - Business Support A - A-Award Time RSUs 3213 0
2022-02-17 Nichol Laura B EVP - Business Support A - A-Award Performance RSUs 2551 0
2022-02-17 Kelley Philip M EVP, Corp Dev & Strategy A - A-Award Performance RSUs 4957 0
2022-02-17 Kelley Philip M EVP, Corp Dev & Strategy A - A-Award Time RSUs 4284 0
2022-02-17 Kelley Philip M EVP, Corp Dev & Strategy A - A-Award Performance RSUs 3401 0
2022-02-17 Kavanagh Michael Joseph EVP & Chief Commercial Officer A - A-Award Performance RSUs 8427 0
2022-02-17 Kavanagh Michael Joseph EVP & Chief Commercial Officer A - A-Award Time RSUs 7284 0
2022-02-17 Kavanagh Michael Joseph EVP & Chief Commercial Officer A - A-Award Performance RSUs 5782 0
2022-02-17 Piche Catherine EVP & COO-Towers A - A-Award Performance RSUs 9295 0
2022-02-17 Piche Catherine EVP & COO-Towers A - A-Award Time RSUs 8033 0
2022-02-17 Piche Catherine EVP & COO-Towers A - A-Award Performance RSUs 6378 0
2022-02-17 Levendos Christopher EVP & COO - Fiber A - A-Award Performance RSUs 9295 0
2022-02-17 Levendos Christopher EVP & COO - Fiber A - A-Award Time RSUs 8033 0
2022-02-17 Levendos Christopher EVP & COO - Fiber A - A-Award Performance RSUs 6378 0
2022-02-17 Simon Kenneth Jay EVP and General Counsel A - A-Award Performance RSUs 6940 0
2022-02-17 Simon Kenneth Jay EVP and General Counsel A - A-Award Time RSUs 5998 0
2022-02-17 Simon Kenneth Jay EVP and General Counsel A - A-Award Performance RSUs 4762 0
2022-02-17 SCHLANGER DANIEL K EVP & Chief Financial Officer A - A-Award Performance RSUs 8427 0
2022-02-17 SCHLANGER DANIEL K EVP & Chief Financial Officer A - A-Award Time RSUs 7284 0
2022-02-17 SCHLANGER DANIEL K EVP & Chief Financial Officer A - A-Award Performance RSUs 5782 0
2022-02-17 Brown Jay A. President and CEO A - A-Award Performance RSUs 28505 0
2022-02-17 Brown Jay A. President and CEO A - A-Award Time RSUs 24637 0
2022-02-17 Brown Jay A. President and CEO A - A-Award Performance RSUs 19559 0
2022-02-17 HOGAN LEE W director A - A-Award Common Stock $0.01 Par Value 536 0
2022-02-17 Stephens Kevin A director A - A-Award Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 1407 0
2022-02-17 Bartolo P Robert director A - A-Award Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 1407 0
2022-02-17 CHRISTY LANGENFELD CYNTHIA K director A - A-Award Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 1407 0
2022-02-17 Melone Anthony J. director A - A-Award Common Stock $0.01 Par Value 1407 0
2022-02-17 MORELAND W BENJAMIN director A - A-Award Common Stock $0.01 Par Value 1407 0
2022-02-17 FITZGERALD ARI Q director A - A-Award Common Stock $0.01 Par Value 1407 0
2022-02-17 Thornton Matthew III director A - A-Award Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 1407 0
2022-02-17 Goldsmith Andrea Jo director A - A-Award Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 1407 0
2022-02-17 MARTIN J LANDIS director A - A-Award Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 769 0
2022-02-17 Jones Tammy director A - A-Award Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 1407 0
2022-01-07 MARTIN J LANDIS director D - G-Gift Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 5160 0
2021-12-10 Levendos Christopher EVP & COO - Fiber A - M-Exempt Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 1951 0
2021-12-10 Levendos Christopher EVP & COO - Fiber D - F-InKind Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 1037 189.62
2021-12-10 Levendos Christopher EVP & COO - Fiber D - M-Exempt Time RSUs 1951 0
2021-09-01 Ackerman Robert Carl officer - 0 0
2021-10-27 Stephens Kevin A director A - P-Purchase Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 1110 178.658
2021-09-01 Piche Catherine EVP & COO-Towers A - A-Award Time RSUs 5051 0
2021-09-01 Piche Catherine EVP & COO-Towers D - Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 0 0
2021-09-01 Piche Catherine EVP & COO-Towers I - Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 0 0
2021-09-01 Piche Catherine EVP & COO-Towers D - Time RSUs 1714 0
2021-09-01 Piche Catherine EVP & COO-Towers D - Performance RSUs 2662 0
2021-08-03 SCHLANGER DANIEL K EVP & Chief Financial Officer D - S-Sale Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 10485 194.313
2021-08-03 SCHLANGER DANIEL K EVP & Chief Financial Officer D - S-Sale Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 315 194.795
2021-07-26 Levendos Christopher EVP & COO - Fiber D - S-Sale Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 4000 191.52
2021-05-19 Levendos Christopher EVP & COO - Fiber D - I-Discretionary Common Stock $0.01 Par Value 72 181.85
2021-07-26 MARTIN J LANDIS director A - P-Purchase Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 4200 191.5192
2021-07-26 MARTIN J LANDIS director A - P-Purchase Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 5000 191.4754
2021-07-26 MARTIN J LANDIS director A - P-Purchase Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 2000 191.55
2021-05-21 GARRISON ROBERT E II - 0 0
2021-05-27 Collins Robert Sean Vice President and Controller D - S-Sale Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 700 188.674
2021-05-21 MCKENZIE ROBERT F - 0 0
2021-05-21 HUTCHESON EDWARD C JR - 0 0
2021-05-14 Stephens Kevin A director A - P-Purchase Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 310 181.525
2021-04-27 Brown Jay A. President and CEO D - G-Gift Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 18000 0
2021-03-31 MARTIN J LANDIS director D - G-Gift Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 8065 0
2018-06-14 Goldsmith Andrea Jo director A - P-Purchase Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 6 97.872
2021-03-15 MARTIN J LANDIS director A - P-Purchase Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 1180 160.992
2021-03-07 Nichol Laura B EVP - Business Support D - Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 0 0
2021-03-07 Nichol Laura B EVP - Business Support I - Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 0 0
2021-03-07 Nichol Laura B EVP - Business Support D - Time RSUs 4244 0
2021-03-07 Nichol Laura B EVP - Business Support D - Performance RSUs 6594 0
2021-03-09 SCHLANGER DANIEL K EVP & Chief Financial Officer D - S-Sale Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 5000 150.728
2021-03-09 Simon Kenneth Jay EVP and General Counsel D - S-Sale Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 6000 150.769
2021-03-02 Collins Robert Sean Vice President and Controller D - S-Sale Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 800 152.711
2021-03-01 MARTIN J LANDIS director A - P-Purchase Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 500 155.487
2021-02-26 MARTIN J LANDIS director A - P-Purchase Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 2600 158.951
2021-02-26 MARTIN J LANDIS director A - P-Purchase Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 1000 158.374
2021-03-01 MARTIN J LANDIS director A - P-Purchase Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 900 155.693
2021-02-26 MARTIN J LANDIS director A - P-Purchase Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 100 158.43
2021-02-26 MARTIN J LANDIS director A - P-Purchase Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 65 158.747
2021-02-26 MARTIN J LANDIS director A - P-Purchase Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 2100 158.473
2021-02-26 MARTIN J LANDIS director A - P-Purchase Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 200 158.443
2021-02-26 MARTIN J LANDIS director A - P-Purchase Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 100 158.295
2021-02-26 MARTIN J LANDIS director A - P-Purchase Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 100 158.115
2021-02-26 MARTIN J LANDIS director A - P-Purchase Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 100 158.44
2021-02-25 Kavanagh Michael Joseph EVP & Chief Commercial Officer D - S-Sale Common Stock $0.01 Par Value 3796 161.22
2021-02-19 Simon Kenneth Jay EVP and General Counsel A - M-Exempt Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 1606 0
2021-02-19 Simon Kenneth Jay EVP and General Counsel A - M-Exempt Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 2248 0
2021-02-19 Simon Kenneth Jay EVP and General Counsel A - M-Exempt Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 2513 0
2021-02-19 Simon Kenneth Jay EVP and General Counsel A - M-Exempt Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 21931 0
2021-02-19 Simon Kenneth Jay EVP and General Counsel D - F-InKind Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 13988 164.9
2021-02-19 Simon Kenneth Jay EVP and General Counsel A - M-Exempt Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 9504 0
2021-02-19 Simon Kenneth Jay EVP and General Counsel D - M-Exempt Time RSUs 1606 0
2021-02-19 Simon Kenneth Jay EVP and General Counsel D - M-Exempt Time RSUs 2248 0
2021-02-19 Simon Kenneth Jay EVP and General Counsel D - M-Exempt Time RSUs 2513 0
2021-02-19 Simon Kenneth Jay EVP and General Counsel D - M-Exempt Performance RSUs 21931 0
2021-02-19 SCHLANGER DANIEL K EVP & Chief Financial Officer A - M-Exempt Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 2026 0
2021-02-19 SCHLANGER DANIEL K EVP & Chief Financial Officer A - M-Exempt Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 2688 0
2021-02-19 SCHLANGER DANIEL K EVP & Chief Financial Officer A - M-Exempt Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 2513 0
2021-02-19 SCHLANGER DANIEL K EVP & Chief Financial Officer A - M-Exempt Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 21931 0
2021-02-19 SCHLANGER DANIEL K EVP & Chief Financial Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 14326 164.9
2021-02-19 SCHLANGER DANIEL K EVP & Chief Financial Officer A - M-Exempt Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 9504 0
2021-02-19 SCHLANGER DANIEL K EVP & Chief Financial Officer D - M-Exempt Time RSUs 2026 0
2021-02-19 SCHLANGER DANIEL K EVP & Chief Financial Officer D - M-Exempt Time RSUs 2688 0
2021-02-19 SCHLANGER DANIEL K EVP & Chief Financial Officer D - M-Exempt Performance RSUs 21931 0
2021-02-19 SCHLANGER DANIEL K EVP & Chief Financial Officer D - M-Exempt Time RSUs 2513 0
2021-02-19 Kelley Philip M EVP, Corp Dev & Strategy A - M-Exempt Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 1362 0
2021-02-19 Kelley Philip M EVP, Corp Dev & Strategy A - M-Exempt Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 1808 0
2021-02-19 Kelley Philip M EVP, Corp Dev & Strategy A - M-Exempt Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 1748 0
2021-02-19 Kelley Philip M EVP, Corp Dev & Strategy A - M-Exempt Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 15256 0
2021-02-19 Kelley Philip M EVP, Corp Dev & Strategy D - F-InKind Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 9658 164.9
2021-02-19 Kelley Philip M EVP, Corp Dev & Strategy A - M-Exempt Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 6612 0
2021-02-19 Kelley Philip M EVP, Corp Dev & Strategy D - M-Exempt Time RSUs 1362 0
2021-02-19 Kelley Philip M EVP, Corp Dev & Strategy D - M-Exempt Time RSUs 1808 0
2021-02-19 Kelley Philip M EVP, Corp Dev & Strategy D - M-Exempt Performance RSUs 15256 0
2021-02-19 Kelley Philip M EVP, Corp Dev & Strategy D - M-Exempt Time RSUs 1748 0
2021-02-19 Kavanagh Michael Joseph EVP & Chief Commercial Officer A - M-Exempt Common Stock $0.01 Par Value 1362 0
2021-02-19 Kavanagh Michael Joseph EVP & Chief Commercial Officer A - M-Exempt Common Stock $0.01 Par Value 1808 0
2021-02-19 Kavanagh Michael Joseph EVP & Chief Commercial Officer A - M-Exempt Common Stock $0.01 Par Value 1748 0
2021-02-19 Kavanagh Michael Joseph EVP & Chief Commercial Officer A - M-Exempt Common Stock $0.01 Par Value 15256 0
2021-02-19 Kavanagh Michael Joseph EVP & Chief Commercial Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock $0.01 Par Value 9657 164.9
2021-02-19 Kavanagh Michael Joseph EVP & Chief Commercial Officer A - M-Exempt Common Stock $0.01 Par Value 6612 0
2021-02-19 Kavanagh Michael Joseph EVP & Chief Commercial Officer D - M-Exempt Time RSUs 1362 0
2021-02-19 Kavanagh Michael Joseph EVP & Chief Commercial Officer D - M-Exempt Time RSUs 1808 0
2021-02-19 Kavanagh Michael Joseph EVP & Chief Commercial Officer D - M-Exempt Performance RSUs 15256 0
2021-02-19 Kavanagh Michael Joseph EVP & Chief Commercial Officer D - M-Exempt Time RSUs 1748 0
2021-02-19 Collins Robert Sean Vice President and Controller A - M-Exempt Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 407 0
2021-02-19 Collins Robert Sean Vice President and Controller A - M-Exempt Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 459 0
2021-02-19 Collins Robert Sean Vice President and Controller A - M-Exempt Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 498 0
2021-02-19 Collins Robert Sean Vice President and Controller A - M-Exempt Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 4348 0
2021-02-19 Collins Robert Sean Vice President and Controller D - F-InKind Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 2430 164.9
2021-02-19 Collins Robert Sean Vice President and Controller A - M-Exempt Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 1883 0
2021-02-19 Collins Robert Sean Vice President and Controller D - M-Exempt Time RSUs 407 0
2021-02-19 Collins Robert Sean Vice President and Controller D - M-Exempt Time RSUs 459 0
2021-02-19 Collins Robert Sean Vice President and Controller D - M-Exempt Performance RSUs 4348 0
2021-02-19 Collins Robert Sean Vice President and Controller D - M-Exempt Time RSUs 498 0
2021-02-19 Brown Jay A. President and CEO A - M-Exempt Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 6637 0
2021-02-19 Brown Jay A. President and CEO A - M-Exempt Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 8601 0
2021-02-19 Brown Jay A. President and CEO A - M-Exempt Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 7374 0
2021-02-19 Brown Jay A. President and CEO A - M-Exempt Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 64366 0
2021-02-19 Brown Jay A. President and CEO D - F-InKind Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 44301 164.9
2021-02-19 Brown Jay A. President and CEO A - M-Exempt Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 27896 0
2021-02-19 Brown Jay A. President and CEO D - M-Exempt Time RSUs 6637 0
2021-02-19 Brown Jay A. President and CEO D - M-Exempt Time RSUs 8601 0
2021-02-19 Brown Jay A. President and CEO D - M-Exempt Time RSUs 7374 0
2021-02-19 Brown Jay A. President and CEO D - M-Exempt Performance RSUs 64366 0
2021-02-19 Ackerman Robert Carl EVP-COO-Towers A - M-Exempt Common Stock $0.01 Par Value 2026 0
2021-02-19 Ackerman Robert Carl EVP-COO-Towers A - M-Exempt Common Stock $0.01 Par Value 2688 0
2021-02-19 Ackerman Robert Carl EVP-COO-Towers A - M-Exempt Common Stock $0.01 Par Value 2513 0
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2021-02-19 Levendos Christopher EVP & COO - Fiber A - M-Exempt Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 10965 0
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2021-02-18 Simon Kenneth Jay EVP and General Counsel A - A-Award Performance RSUs 5159 0
2021-02-18 Simon Kenneth Jay EVP and General Counsel A - A-Award Time RSUs 5093 0
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2021-02-18 SCHLANGER DANIEL K EVP & Chief Financial Officer A - A-Award Time RSUs 6579 0
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2021-02-18 Levendos Christopher EVP & COO - Fiber A - A-Award Time RSUs 5306 0
2021-02-18 Kelley Philip M EVP, Corp Dev & Strategy A - A-Award Performance RSUs 6594 0
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2021-02-18 Collins Robert Sean Vice President and Controller A - A-Award Performance RSUs 1677 0
2021-02-18 Collins Robert Sean Vice President and Controller A - A-Award Performance RSUs 1093 0
2021-02-18 Collins Robert Sean Vice President and Controller A - A-Award Time RSUs 1079 0
2021-02-18 Brown Jay A. President and CEO A - A-Award Performance RSUs 32970 0
2021-02-18 Brown Jay A. President and CEO A - A-Award Performance RSUs 21497 0
2021-02-18 Brown Jay A. President and CEO A - A-Award Time RSUs 21224 0
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2021-02-18 Thornton Matthew III director A - A-Award Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 1091 0
2021-02-18 Stephens Kevin A director A - A-Award Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 1091 0
2021-02-18 MORELAND W BENJAMIN director A - A-Award Common Stock $0.01 Par Value 1091 0
2021-02-18 Melone Anthony J. director A - A-Award Common Stock $0.01 Par Value 1091 0
2021-02-18 MCKENZIE ROBERT F director A - A-Award Common Stock $0.01 Par Value 421 0
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2021-02-18 HUTCHESON EDWARD C JR director A - A-Award Common Stock $0.01 Par Value 421 0
2021-02-18 HOGAN LEE W director A - A-Award Common Stock $0.01 Par Value 1091 0
2021-02-18 Goldsmith Andrea Jo director A - A-Award Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 1091 0
2021-02-18 GARRISON ROBERT E II director A - A-Award Common Stock $0.01 Par Value 421 0
2021-02-18 FITZGERALD ARI Q director A - A-Award Common Stock $0.01 Par Value 1091 0
2021-02-18 CHRISTY LANGENFELD CYNTHIA K director A - A-Award Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 1091 0
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2021-02-01 Stephens Kevin A director A - P-Purchase Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 2000 164.1548
2018-02-19 Kelley Philip M EVP, Corp Dev & Strategy A - M-Exempt Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 1933 0
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2020-12-22 GARRISON ROBERT E II director D - G-Gift Common Stock $0.01 Par Value 50 0
2020-12-28 GARRISON ROBERT E II director D - G-Gift Common Stock $0.01 Par Value 50 0
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2020-12-09 MARTIN J LANDIS director A - P-Purchase Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 100 157.015
2020-12-10 MARTIN J LANDIS director A - P-Purchase Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 1000 157.015
2020-12-09 MARTIN J LANDIS director A - P-Purchase Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 200 157.5925
2020-12-09 MARTIN J LANDIS director A - P-Purchase Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 200 157.6126
2020-12-09 MARTIN J LANDIS director A - P-Purchase Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 200 157.6
2020-12-09 MARTIN J LANDIS director A - P-Purchase Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 50 157.89
2020-12-09 MARTIN J LANDIS director A - P-Purchase Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 50 157.9
2020-12-09 MARTIN J LANDIS director A - P-Purchase Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 100 157.22
2020-12-09 MARTIN J LANDIS director A - P-Purchase Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 100 157.458
2020-12-09 MARTIN J LANDIS director A - P-Purchase Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 100 157.477
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2020-12-01 Stephens Kevin A director D - Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 0 0
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2020-12-01 Levendos Christopher EVP & COO - Fiber D - Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 0 0
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2020-12-01 Levendos Christopher EVP & COO - Fiber D - Performance RSUs 4685 0
2020-11-12 Young James D EVP & COO - Fiber D - S-Sale Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 6000 164.32
2020-11-06 Thornton Matthew III director A - A-Award Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 548 0
2020-11-06 Jones Tammy director A - A-Award Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 548 0
2020-11-06 Thornton Matthew III director D - Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 0 0
2020-11-06 Jones Tammy director D - Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 0 0
2020-10-27 MARTIN J LANDIS director A - P-Purchase Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 6250 161.2195
2020-10-27 MARTIN J LANDIS director A - P-Purchase Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 500 161.05
2020-10-27 MARTIN J LANDIS director A - P-Purchase Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 50 161.55
2020-10-27 MARTIN J LANDIS director A - P-Purchase Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 50 160.89
2020-10-27 MARTIN J LANDIS director A - P-Purchase Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 50 160.97
2020-10-27 MARTIN J LANDIS director A - P-Purchase Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 500 161.064
2020-10-27 MARTIN J LANDIS director A - P-Purchase Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 500 161.08
2020-10-27 MARTIN J LANDIS director A - P-Purchase Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 50 161.15
2020-10-27 MARTIN J LANDIS director A - P-Purchase Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 50 161.1
2020-10-27 MARTIN J LANDIS director A - P-Purchase Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 50 161.13
2020-09-05 Ackerman Robert Carl EVP-COO-Towers A - M-Exempt Common Stock $0.01 Par Value 3115 0
2020-09-05 Ackerman Robert Carl EVP-COO-Towers D - F-InKind Common Stock $0.01 Par Value 1444 160.59
2020-09-05 Ackerman Robert Carl EVP-COO-Towers D - M-Exempt Time RSUs 3115 0
2020-08-24 Young James D EVP & COO - Fiber D - S-Sale Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 6000 163.1
2020-08-03 Collins Robert Sean Vice President and Controller D - S-Sale Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 2000 164.1899
2020-06-08 Collins Robert Sean Vice President and Controller D - S-Sale Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 1000 172.295
2020-06-09 Collins Robert Sean Vice President and Controller D - S-Sale Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 1000 176.168
2020-06-08 Young James D EVP & COO - Fiber D - S-Sale Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 6000 168
2020-05-08 Brown Jay A. President and CEO D - G-Gift Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 12900 0
2020-05-05 Kelley Philip M EVP, Corp Dev & Strategy D - S-Sale Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 16404 159.8201
2020-05-04 Kavanagh Michael Joseph EVP & Chief Commercial Officer D - S-Sale Common Stock $0.01 Par Value 5000 153.858
2020-02-20 Goldsmith Andrea Jo director A - A-Award Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 1077 0
2020-02-20 MARTIN J LANDIS director A - A-Award Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value 1676 0
2020-02-20 MORELAND W BENJAMIN director A - A-Award Common Stock $0.01 Par Value 1077 0
2020-02-20 HUTCHESON EDWARD C JR director A - A-Award Common Stock $0.01 Par Value 1077 0
2020-02-20 Bartolo P Robert director A - A-Award Common Stock $0.01 Par Value 1077 0
Transcripts
Operator:
Good day and welcome to the Crown Castle Second Quarter 2024 Earnings Conference Call. All participants will be in a listen-only mode. [Operator Instructions] Please note, this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Kris Hinson, Vice President of Corporate Finance and Treasurer. Please go ahead.
Kris Hinson :
Thank you, Betsy, and good afternoon everyone. Thank you for joining us today as we discuss our Second Quarter 2024 Results. With me on the call this afternoon are Steven Moskowitz, Crown Castle's Chief Executive Officer, and Dan Schlanger, Crown Castle's Chief Financial Officer. To aid the discussion, we have posted supplemental materials in the Investor section of our website at crowncastle.com that will be referenced throughout the call. This conference call will contain forward-looking statements which are subject to certain risks, uncertainties, and assumptions, and actual results may vary materially from those expected. Information about potential factors which could affect our results is available in the press release and the risk factor sections of the company's SEC filings. Our statements are made as of today, July 17th, 2024, and we assume no obligation to update any forward-looking statements. In addition today's call includes discussion of certain non-GAAP financial measures. Tables reconciling these non-GAAP financial measures are available in the supplemental information package in the Investor section of the company's website at crowncastle.com. With that, let me turn the call over to Steven.
Steven Moskowitz :
Thanks, Chris. Good afternoon, everyone. We appreciate you joining us for this call and as you can see from our second quarter results, we delivered solid operating and financial performance in all three of our businesses and reiterated our full year 2024 outlook. We're confident in our outlook based on having 95% of our expected tower revenue growth for this year contracted either as part of our holistic master license agreements with our major customers or with revenues from regional and local wireless customers, and also having implemented changes to our fiber segment, which will position us to generate more profitable business and increase our operating efficiencies. In the tower business, we anticipate organic revenue growth of 4.5% this year, and believe that as we look out over the next few years, our growth rate will be higher based on three factors. First, the holistic master license agreements we have with our largest customers provide us a stable and consistent level of growth over time. Second, industry forecasts estimate that long-term US wireless data demand growth will continue to drive the need for significant future communications infrastructure investments. And we are aware that major carriers still have lots of work to do to expand their networks in the 5G build cycle. And finally, we believe that as more tangible steps are taken by our company to be a best-in-class supplier of low-cost shared infrastructure solutions, we'll be better positioned to compete for a higher share of revenues as our customers continue to invest in their networks. Moving to our fiber and small cell businesses, we've completed many of the changes to our operating plans that we announced in June and have started to see the benefits of those changes through more profitable growth and greater operating efficiencies. As part of the operational review of our fiber segment, which we conducted earlier this year, we affirm that greater opportunity exists to provide additional customer solutions to enterprise fiber connections and small cell locations that are on or near our existing high quality fiber footprint, which allows us to add revenue without the requirement to invest as much capital as we've done in the past. Implement these changes in our small cell business, our commercial and deployment teams have been working collaboratively with our customers on a mix of outcomes, many of which improves our project economics, while also addressing our customers' evolving priorities around network densification and capital allocation. As part of this change in our operating plan, we plan to build fewer anchor nodes in the short run. However, given our large pipeline and our customers' long-term densification needs in geographies where we have really robust assets in place. We continue to expect there is sufficient demand to grow small-cell revenues by double digits over the next several years. Turning to our fiber solutions business, we believe we can improve returns by focusing our sales efforts on or near-net opportunities that reduce discretionary capital expenditures going forward. And to support these changes, we've already adjusted our go-to-market commercial plan. We've changed our sales incentive award system and increased our required rates of project returns, resulting in anticipated shorter payback periods on invested capital. So like in our small cell business, we analyzed the markets around our fiber assets to quantify the opportunities to utilize our existing fiber. We believe we have ample opportunities to improve capital efficiency, while achieving long-term organic revenue growth in fiber solutions of 3% per year. As we announced in June, we believe our more focused effort to target on-net and near-net demand in both small cells and fiber solutions will drive a more efficient use of capital and will also generate approximately $100 million of annualized run rate cost savings. Importantly, we implemented most of these changes by the end of the second quarter, which keeps us on track to generate approximately $60 million of expected cost savings and reduce capital expenditures by about $300 million for this year. As we continue to deliver solid results and make operational changes, we remain focused on the fiber strategic review, which is active and ongoing. The management team and I continue working with the fiber review committee, the board of directors, and external consultants to evaluate strategic alternatives to determine how to maximize shareholder value. Now, we can't share much more about the process and the timing. What we can share is that we remain actively engaged with multiple third-parties who continue to show a lot of interest in our fiber solutions and small cell businesses. And we'll provide updates as the process unfolds. I'd like to conclude my comments by saying that over the past few weeks, I've been fortunate to have engaged in conversations with more than 50% of our company's employees through either in-person conversations and also video conference calls. The goal of my meetings with everybody was to be present and discuss the rationale behind our recent operational changes, answer questions that are on people's minds about the fiber segment, and start to set expectations for everybody in the company going forward. My takeaways from these discussions was that two major themes exist in the minds of Crown Castle employees. First, they care and have great pride. They are very proud of being part of Crown Castle and they want our company to be seen as excellent in the minds of the constituents we serve including shareholders and customers and communities. And second, most recognize that to be excellent, we need to continue to make changes in how we operate. And they are engaged and energized about their ability to participate in and lead the process and develop new ways of doing things to help differentiate us, as a leader in the sector. So I'd like to thank all the employees I met for being as open and transparent with me as they were, and to those employees I've yet to meet, but will at a time come soon. And to all of our employees, a big thanks for continuing to drive our business and deliver results over the past several months. I know there's been a lot of change, and it's reassuring that this team has been able to stay focused on delivering for customers during this period. Having said all that, I would ask all employees and our investors to keep in mind the change management is a process and it takes time. And I appreciate your understanding as we continue to develop new goals that will improve our chances of taking higher shares of new revenue opportunities, convert a greater share of new revenue down to EBITDA, increase investment returns on the growth capital we deploy, bolster our balance sheet to generate more optionality for us in the future and ultimately increase shareholder value. So with that, let me turn it over to Dan to walk through the quarter results.
Daniel Schlanger :
Thanks, Steven, and good afternoon, everyone. We delivered second quarter results in-line with expectations and remain on track for our full year outlook after implementing the operational changes we announced in June. Looking at the second quarter results on Page 4 of our earnings presentation. The underlying business continued to perform well in the quarter, highlighted by 4.7% consolidated organic growth, excluding the impact of Sprint Cancellations. The 4.7% organic growth in the second quarter consisted of 4.4% growth from towers, 11% from small cells, and 3.2% from fiber solutions. We are encouraged by these levels of growth at this time with our tower business generating growth in-line with our current expectations, the uptick in small cell activity resulting in higher growth compared to the last couple years, and our fiber solutions business delivering growth above our 3% expectation, despite the changes we made to our operating plan. This growth underscores the stability and attractiveness of our business, as we are well positioned to capitalize on the growing demand for data in the US. As anticipated, the solid organic growth delivered in the quarter was more than offset by several one-time and non-cash items, including a $106 million reduction to site rental revenues related to the Sprint Cancellations, a combined $105 million reduction in straight line revenues and prepaid rent amortization, both of which are non-cash items, a $22 million decrease in service margin contribution, due to the combination of lower tower activity and the decision we made to exit the construction and installation business, which we implemented in the second half of last year, and $20 million of advisory fees primarily related to our recent proxy contest. Turning to Page 5, we are reiterating the full-year outlook we released in June, which reflects a year-over-year decrease in site rental revenues, adjusted EBITDA, and AFFO, primarily due to the one-time and non-cash items I just mentioned. Our expected organic growth -- contribution to full-year site rental billings remains unchanged, with organic growth of 2% or 5% excluding the impact of Sprint Cancellations. The 5% consolidated organic growth excluding the impact of Sprint Cancellations consists of 4.5% from towers compared to 5% in 2023, 15% from small cells, as we expect 11,000 to 13,000 new billable nodes in 2024 compared to 8,000 nodes in 2023, and 2% from Fiber Solutions. As we announced in June, the small-cell organic growth of 15% includes a $25 million increase in non-recurring revenues, primarily related to early termination payments. Excluding this impact, small-cell organic growth is expected to be 10% this year. Moving to Page 7, we expect to deliver $105 million of AFFO growth at the midpoint, excluding the impact of the Sprint Cancellations and non-cash decrease in amortization of prepaid rent. Included in this AFFO growth is a $10 million increase in cost, which includes normal operating cost increases, as well as $25 million of advisory fees related to our recent proxy contest, all of which is expected to be offset by an approximately $60 million decrease in costs related to the reduction in staffing levels and office closures we announced in June. Turning to the balance sheet, we ended the second quarter with leverage at 5.9 times EBITDA or 5.7 times excluding the impact of the non-recurring advisory fees. Looking ahead to the third quarter, we expect our leverage metrics to improve as we believe our second quarter EBITDA will be the low point for the year and we benefit from our operating cost reductions. Since transitioning to investment grade in 2015, we have strengthened our balance sheet by extending our weighted average maturity from five years to seven years, decreasing the percentage of secured debt from 47% to 6%, and increasing the percentage of fixed rate debt from 68% to 89%. In addition, we ended the quarter with approximately $5.5 billion of availability under our revolving credit facility and only $2 billion of debt maturities through 2025, providing us with ample liquidity to fund our business. We believe the steps we have taken to strengthen our balance sheet, provide us with financial stability and flexibility as we evaluate strategic paths forward. As we announced in June, we decreased our outlook for discretionary CapEx, as a result of the modified investment parameters we recently implemented, and now expect $1.2 billion to $1.3 billion of gross discretionary CapEx, or $900 million to $1 billion after taking into account $355 million of prepaid rent we expect to receive. In summary, the business is performing well, delivering organic growth, and keeping us on track for our full year outlook after implementing the operational changes we announced in June. With the operating review complete, our focus is on maximizing shareholder value by continuing to progress the fiber strategic review and delivering operational and financial results across our portfolio of tower, small cell, and fiber solutions assets. Before starting Q&A, I'd like to note that we are changing the timing of when we provide guidance for the upcoming year. Going forward, we will provide forward-year guidance with fourth quarter earnings as opposed to our past practice of providing guidance in our third quarter release. This means you should expect to receive our full year 2025 guide with earnings in January. With that, Betsy, I'd like to open the call for questions.
Operator:
We will now begin the question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] The first question today comes from Simon Flannery with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.
Simon Flannery:
Great, thank you very much. Good afternoon. Steven, thanks for all the color on the CapEx and OpEx review there. I wanted to get more color on was -- what is the new run rate of CapEx, presumably since this was sort of a mid-year review, some of the spending was already done. You may have more spending contracted in the second half of the year. So any color you can provide us at what sort of you think the more usual rate given this sort of higher hurdle rate and new more focused approach will be going forward. And then maybe Dan one for you, you talked about the leverage coming down to [5.7 times] (ph) on adjusted basis. What are you targeting in terms of leverage over the next couple of years here? And there's Bloomberg's reporting that there may be a Verizon portfolio out there. How are you thinking about M&A in the context of that? Thank you.
Daniel Schlanger:
Hey, Simon. It's Dan. I'm going to take the first two and leave the M&A point for Steven to hit. But the run rate of CapEx, as we had been talking about, we're focusing our CapEx on lower capital intensity projects, so that we go towards on-net and near-net opportunities, which means that over time we believe that the overall level of CapEx, the amount of revenue we generate, will come down. But ultimately, CapEx is going to be driven by how much opportunity we have in the business. So we can't really give a full run rate of what we think is going to happen until we understand what that activity looks like and we're able to give guidance in 2025 But I think one of the things you mentioned and you're right about is that this was a midyear move and we were able to save $300 million is what we expect for the year. So we would anticipate that somewhere in that neighborhood or potentially more going forward, but we're going to have to get to 2025 before we can really give specifics on that point. In terms of leverage, Our goal is to be at 5 times leverage. And obviously, we're elevated from that point now, but we believe as we continue to grow our EBITDA and not grow capital nearly as much because of the capital savings we just talked about. We think we will be able to organically bring that leverage down over time towards that 5 times goal.
Simon Flannery:
Thank you.
Steven Moskowitz:
Hey, Simon, it's Steven. In terms of M&A, you know, we're aware of different assets that are either in the market or coming to market in the US. And, if it's a truly compelling proposition for us, which we would consider compelling being highly strategic and cost effective, so we have confidence in delivering future shareholder value, then if it has those types of characteristics, we definitely have interest. But overall right now, M&A is not necessarily the priority for us.
Simon Flannery:
Great. Thank you.
Operator:
The next question comes from Michael Rollins with Citi. Please go ahead.
Michael Rollins:
Thanks and good afternoon. I was curious Steven, on some of the comments that you made about the tower business. You talked about three things that you thought could drive a higher organic annual growth rate. I'm curious if you can give us an update within that context of what you're seeing in terms of carrier activity and are there any early signals that you're seeing as you look at the visibility that you have in this business and what could come in 2025. And then you also mentioned more tangible steps the company is taking to be a best-in-class provider. I'm curious if you could share some of those steps and how you think that will translate into better share and results going forward.
Steven Moskowitz:
Yeah, okay, Michael. You know, it's tough to talk about next year and beyond. It's a little bit early from our vantage point, but what we see in the market today and conversations that we're having with our customers, it just gives us optimism that what we've forecasted for revenue growth is directionally correct. We also obviously have benefit of stability and visibility in our revenue from our MLAs. So we don't really see demand shifting directions in one way or another from our major carriers. Right now, to some degree, we look at things as steady state, as carriers work on their mid-band 5G rollouts. So that's pretty much how we are thinking about this year. And again, going into next year, ideally there is more opportunity for growth. But we'll be working through our budgets between now and then this year from that vantage point. As it relates to tangible things, the priorities right now for us are the strategic review of our fiber business, very critical. Spending cash, what we would say is wisely or differently, you know, with some changes that have already occurred in our fiber business as we've outwardly discussed with everybody. Cost management for us, which is key, and our leadership team is evaluating kind of other areas of the business to see how we can consider improving operating and EBITDA margins over time. And then business transformation. I think business transformation is probably the biggest thing that we need to work on. I mean, this company has grown significantly over the last decade. And when you're growing like crazy, you tend to be focused more on driving revenue and getting every opportunity you can for lease up. And now that things are a little bit more in a steady state, I think the key for us is to, do some transformation. And when I think about that, it is really evaluating the people, making sure we have the right people in the right roles. It's the business processes, so identifying root causes of inefficiencies for us and [figuring out] (ph) plans to fix them so things are more repeatable and reliable, and efficient. And improving our systems, which a lot of people have been starting to do with improved workflows in this company. We have some new asset management tools, CRM and on the enterprise side. So kind of wrapping that all up, if we're able to over the next year, year-and-a-half, you know, really improve the processes that we have, whether it's the application to on-air cycle time, making sure we have just better data and data governance around our assets. All those types of things are going to help keep us really focused and that'll lead to providing better customer service to maximize organic growth in the future.
Michael Rollins:
Thanks.
Operator:
The next question comes from David Barden with Bank of America. Please go ahead.
David Barden:
Hey, guys. Thanks so much for taking the questions. A nice straightforward quarter. I guess my first question would be, Dan we – if we go backwards and we start thinking about the small cell return thresholds, right? It was always whatever the CapEx is [times 6%] (ph) and then if we get a second tenant that goes into the double digits, and if we get a third tenant it goes north of there. Could you kind of come back to that and kind of give us what the new language around return threshold expectations is for the company now that we've kind of undertaken the operational review? And then I guess the second question would be just in terms of the service revenue kind of run rate in the quarter. I think Steve, to your point, that this might be kind of run rate, you know, from a tower activity level. Is this the new run rate for kind of services for the foreseeable future before we start guiding to 2025? Thank you.
Daniel Schlanger:
Sure. Thank you. Let me answer the first one, which is what are our return thresholds as we look at the small-cell business? You pointed them out right. Historically, we targeted 6% to 7% on the anchor build. All I can say now is that our target is higher than that, and we are going to work through the market and figure out exactly what that's going to look like. But what it does by going to a higher level of anchor build economics is it allows us upon lease up to get even a higher return on the lease up, so that we de-risk the business substantially, with our cost of capital being higher than it was when we first targeted 6% to 7%. We think that we can start making on the anchor build a return that accommodates that higher cost of capital and allows us to make money over time by leasing up those assets. But they are not yet in a position of quantifying exactly what that number is going to be or is at this point. On the service revenue question that you asked, yes the second quarter run rate is what I would put in for kind of generally what we think will happen over the course of the rest of this year. And then as you pointed out, we'll give additional guidance for 2025, when we update our guidance in January.
David Barden:
Appreciated. Thank you, Dan.
Operator:
The next question comes from Ric Prentiss with Raymond James. Please go ahead.
Ric Prentiss:
Yeah. Thanks everybody. Hey, I want to start with the change in given guidance, slipping it to the 4Q call from the 3Q call. I know we had chatted about it in NAREIT, Dan, but kind of help us understand what kind of led to that change. I know your peers do it from the 4Q call.
Daniel Schlanger:
Sure. That is part of what led us to it. I think that what we had noticed is that when we were giving our guidance in October, we were a full five months ahead of our peers. And what we had also noticed was whatever trend we started to talk about, we were kind of blazing a trail well before anybody else could talk about them. And so we would get an outsized amount of the questions and an outsized amount of the consternation ultimately about what we were saying about the subsequent year for a pretty long time. And by the time that our peers were giving guidance in February, that news had settled a bit and it didn't impact them as much. And so what we've noticed is, it's been hard to be the trailblazer on that front. One of the things that has led us down the path of giving guidance so early is that our business is relatively predictable. And so we like the idea that giving guidance in October expressed that predictability. We didn't miss very often even though we were giving guidance in October. We still believe our business is predictable. We still believe we could give guidance in October and be good with it. But we think giving ourselves another three months and being closer to our peers, makes it easier for us to maintain a good message to the market and for investors to understand what's going on. And gives us a little bit more time to incorporate any additional information in that last quarter that will help us give the best guidance we possibly can.
Steven Moskowitz:
Hey Ric, it's Steven. I'd add to that. This company has started the budget process at the beginning of August. Most companies I've been with in August, September, October, we are driving home to try to finish out the year, as strongly as we can. So I also felt compelled to ask the team to reconsider, start the budget process a little bit later. And if we need to move guidance out, since it gives us a little bit more opportunity to really understand the market before we completely formulize what we have for our outlook.
Ric Prentiss:
That makes sense. And the carrier budget cycle seems to really come to a head, bottoms up, tops down Halloween into the fourth quarter. So I think it makes sense from your customer standpoint, too.
Steven Moskowitz:
That's exactly right.
Daniel Schlanger:
And it takes away -- one other thing, Rick, I would just mention. It takes away one of the issues that we were having, which was we would provide guidance based on what we thought that the fourth quarter was going to be and then it would be a jumping-off point. Now we actually will know what that is, so that we don't have that other -- that extra change to try to reconcile back to.
Ric Prentiss:
Makes sense to me. I'm going to talk to the strategic review delicately but I think this will work. Last quarter, we talked about fiber, small cells, and would it make sense from a seller standpoint or the buyer standpoint to separate fiber solutions from small cells? Is it possible to update us as kind of what are the pros and cons from a very 30,000 foot level to say, what about -- is there a strategic review outcome is including both of them together? Or what if it's something that splits them apart? Is that a fair question? I think it is.
Daniel Schlanger:
Yes, it's a totally fair question. I think what we've said is that we are open to any alternative that maximizes shareholder value. And if that alternative is that somebody is willing to value the fiber solutions business apart from us higher than what we think we're getting credit for what we believe it's worth internally, then we would like to sell it separately. If that valuation metric goes only in combination with small cells, then we would do something with a combined business. So that's really how we are thinking about it. I can't tell you how a potential buyer would look at the pros and cons of whether they want it together or separate. That's up to them to try to figure out. We know that there have been good overlaps between towers, small cells, and fiber solutions. That's why we have them together, but we are open to somebody coming in and valuing each, however they think they see value and comparing that to what our own internal look is and making the best decision for shareholders.
Ric Prentiss:
Okay. Last one for me, Steven, unique position we think you're in. We continue to see private multiples well above public multiples. Can you give us your opinion on -- are you seeing that? Why are we seeing it, and why has it persisted so long if it is there?
Steven Moskowitz:
That's a great question. Yes. I mean, it's a bit of a mystery. I mean, obviously, you have a lot of private investors who are very excited about this business, about the business model and about the future growth prospects. And they're investing capital and they feel that whatever high multiples of investing capital at, that at some point down the road. They'll be able to sell the business and get a good return on their invested capital or recapitalize the business somehow or partner with somebody but they see a very good exit. And I think there is, from our perspective of dislocation. We just -- we're – again we're not being opportunistic in looking at some deals that are out there that are very non-accretive to this company. So we'll see what happens over time. And we are hoping, Ric, that the dislocation changes and it does give us an opportunity. So as our balance sheet strengthens over the next number of years, and we do have more flexibility and optionality to grow inorganically, that there's opportunities. And that may be multiples at that juncture will have come down a little bit, and it's something that we would be seeking to engage in conversations with some of these privates.
Ric Prentiss:
Great, appreciate the color. Thanks guys.
Daniel Schlanger :
Thanks Ric.
Operator:
The next question comes from Jim Schneider with Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.
Jim Schneider:
Good afternoon and thanks for taking my question. Relative to the operational update and a lower number of small cell deliveries you expect to make in 2024, can you clarify whether that reflects a reduction in the amount of small cell activity that carriers intend to do overall this year? And do you believe there is any change in their intention to do more self-perform work on small cells?
Steven Moskowitz:
Yes, I'll take that. Again we made the shift, since returns on our invested capital has not yet materialized, right, to the level we had hoped for as we talked about. But we have a lot of conviction that if we continue to execute well, we are going to be able to maximize business in the future as long as it's more on or around our fiber backbone. And again, we are looking at this as the carriers have their demands in terms of network changes and expansion with their different types of solutions and it is based on many factors. And so for now, the carriers remain focused on deploying mid-band spectrum. I mean that's kind of their top priority. And from our perspective, our priority is to drive better returns on capital deployed. So we are in the process now of working with these customers on solutions, and we feel that we are going to be able to align their needs with ours in the short run right, going through kind of the balance of this year and into next year. But as it relates to future demand, this business is kind of ever changing, and it is a bit lumpy in terms of how we see things quarter-to-quarter. But generally speaking, the type of data demand growth that we see in the future, and that's estimated, we just -- we remain very optimistic that data growth is going to drive more densification, and it will drive more demand for small cells over time, which will lead to the type of double-digit revenue growth that we forecast into the future.
Jim Schneider:
That's helpful. Thank you. And then Steven, relative to your comments on the potential opportunity for market share gains, is there a particular segment of your business where you think you have the greatest confidence in achieving that over the next two years?
Steven Moskowitz:
We have these holistic agreements with our major customers where we have one that's going to be coming up for kind of a new negotiation over the next year. So we are hopeful that, that leads to kind of sanctifying our relationship even further and kind of taking our relationship or partnership up to a next level of excellence with that customer, which hopefully will enable them to consider us as being a real preferred supplier. So that's one element of it. There's a whole host of kind of mid and smaller regional customers out there that we've been focused on. And I think with a greater effort, a greater sales effort and different rewards for our sales teams, we should be able to be kind of convincingly garnering a higher share of business than we have in the past. So I think the combination of those two things should give us the chance to be able to generate more of our unfair share of business than we are taking now.
Jim Schneider:
Thank you very much.
Operator:
The next question comes from Nick Del Deo with MoffettNathanson. Please go ahead.
Nick Del Deo:
Hi, thanks for taking my questions. And I hope you guys and your team have been managing through the effects of the hurricane okay. Steven, you just touched on this a little bit in your prior answer, but I was hoping you could expand a bit more broadly on your high-level philosophies as it relates to MLAs, so we can kind of understand the puts and takes of what you think about or want to see when you're contemplating those sorts of arrangements.
Steven Moskowitz:
Yes. I mean, Nick, obviously we've been able to achieve good growth and create significant shareholder value by negotiating these types of comprehensive MLAs. And the key for me is to be able to find ways where we are really kind of getting to a yes-yes situation or a win-win situation between both parties, where we are able to realize kind of more guaranteed growth over a multi-year period of time, in a way that maximizes the value of our assets, while giving the carriers really a much better degree of certainty, as it relates to how they budget. And also enables them to get on to our sites more quickly, more efficiently, which then lowers their overall cost of operations. So the goal here is to have them be really beneficial to both our customers in providing that framework to leverage our assets and also for us in order to be able to drive more revenue. But obviously, there is key elements of that include pricing and packaging and volume and annual escalations in addition to the types of needs that the carriers feel that they need over time in terms of entitlements on these assets. So there is a number of things that come to play, which I know you know a lot of those, but that's kind of how I think about it broadly.
Nick Del Deo:
Okay, that's helpful. Thank you for sharing that. I guess one other question on fiber solutions. I guess can you guys drill down a little bit on the changes to your sales tactics or sales incentives or the sales tools you are going to be using to enable you to sell more on or near-net versus what you've been doing historically?
Steven Moskowitz:
Well again, from an enterprise perspective or fiber solutions, the shift is in sales and marketing primarily, basically going kind of from a wide-angle lens to more of a zoom lens, I guess, I would say. And we’ve been dealing a lot with retail type of clients, and we're trying to move a bit away from retail clients that are more transactional, that create a little bit more churn, that aren't as financially sound. And we are trying to move to customers and increase time spent with the larger customers out there that are in telecom, financials, what we call GEM, which is Government, Education, and Medical. And those folks tend to remain loyal for longer contractual periods of time which help, and they also have more financial wherewithal to contribute more capital to any type of new project. So the goal really is to kind of shift more into that, what we call complex sale area. And between the review that our teams did over the last number of months and some input from an adviser who's very steeped in this industry, they both felt collectively that there is a lot of headroom or opportunity to be able to kind of shift a bit from retail to more complex selling. And we've put some pretty good sales incentives in place. And we have some automated systems that also help us in terms of kind of defining where there is upside in our footprint.
Nick Del Deo:
Okay, that’s great. Thank you Steven.
Operator:
The next question comes from Richard Choe with JPMorgan. Please go ahead.
Richard Choe:
Hi, I have one question regarding the strategic review. I mean, should we be thinking about an outcome kind of by the next earnings call, end of the year, or maybe longer than that? And then following up on the tower question, longer term, is the tower business still a 5% business? Or could that actually be a little bit higher, given maybe the changes that you are focusing on? Thank you.
Steven Moskowitz:
Yes. As it relates to the strategic review, it is difficult to put a time frame on it, right? We're in the mix now. We're heavily engaged with multiple counterparties, potential counterparties. And we'll see how it plays out. We'd like it to be accelerated so we can make a decision, right? It would be good for our company, it would be good for our people. It'd be good for our shareholders depending on what outcome we decide on. So just I guess, stay tuned, stay with us on this, and we'll be able to hopefully report something out as the year flows through. As it relates to the tower business in terms of kind of the outlook, we are not sure how -- if over 5% is something that's so readily available. Ideally for us, it could be. We've talked about cycles with the Gs and we feel we are kind of in mid-cycle right now, a bit of a trough. And ideally by the mid-to-end of next year, maybe we see a tick-up by the carriers in their capital spend. I think they are going to be spending $32 billion or $33 billion this year overall. Not all of that, of course, on our networks. But if they ratchet back a bit or say ratchet forward a bit, particularly maybe as interest rates settle a bit, which could be helpful to them, then by middle of next year, ideally we see a little bit greater demand and kind of finishing off between '26 and '27, of the 5G expansion. So if that happens, then that could increase growth incrementally. And then if we are able to get a bit of a higher share of growth, those things collectively puts us, we believe kind of in that 5% or maybe 5%-plus range.
Richard Choe:
Great. Thank you.
Operator:
The next question comes from Ari Klein with BMO Capital Markets. Please go ahead.
Ari Klein:
Thank you. Maybe just going back to small cells. Given the shift in strategy, I think you've previously talked about 50,000 nodes in backlog. How many of those are impacted, I guess, by the shifts that you are implementing?
Daniel Schlanger:
As of right now, we don't have a change. We still have the 50,000 nodes in backlog. We're working through all of those in the discussions with our customers. And nothing at this point has changed that would change that 50,000. As we come to some sort of decisions with our customers and figure out what we want to do, should there be changes, we will obviously update that number, but it hadn't happened yet.
Ari Klein:
Thanks. And then maybe you talked a little bit about increased flexibility which includes the balance sheet and maybe bringing leverage lower. Could that at some point, include shifting the dividend strategy and how you think about that?
Daniel Schlanger:
Yes. I think given the fact that we're in the middle of the strategic review which would include the thought around capital allocation, dividend policy, everything else ultimately. We are really not in a great place to talk about what's going forward until we have more of a conclusion on what businesses we have and where we are going to be in the future.
Ari Klein:
Got it. All right. Thanks for the color.
Operator:
The next question comes from Matt Niknam with Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.
Matt Niknam:
Hi guys. Thanks for taking the question. Just two on fiber as well, it seems to be the theme of the call. One, obviously, there is a sharpened focus on more profitable on or near-net build. So Dan, I want to go back to a point that was brought up before. I know we reduced discretionary CapEx for the fiber business $300 million this year. This is a business that typically has from what I remember, an 18-month to 36-month book-to-bill, so there is pretty decent visibility. And so I'm wondering as we sit here today how that maybe informs what 2025 can look like, just given sort of that longer book-to-bill window. And then secondly on fiber solutions, the core leasing number this quarter, $39 million, I believe that was the highest since 1Q '22. So just looking for any updates you can share there and anything notable you'd call out driving that strength. Thanks.
Daniel Schlanger:
Yes. Matt, I just want to make sure. The first question you asked was based on -- was directed at small cells, right not fiber solutions?
Matt Niknam:
Yes, more so just around discretionary spend for fiber in general.
Daniel Schlanger:
Okay, fiber in general. Because when we were talking about an 18-month to 36-month book-to-bill, that's more like a small cell type of book-to-bill cycle. Fiber solutions is much faster. So we have reduced the discretionary CapEx. We do believe that -- that reduction will ultimately impact the amount of nodes that we are going to build and the revenue that we can generate. And part of how we are going to go through the discussions with our customers and how those will end up will impact 2025, and we'll be able to talk about it, like I said, in January when we give guidance. On the fiber solutions side of reduction, we do have reductions in the CapEx that has to do with some fiber business. And that's because what we talked about is we are not really targeting building out to new locations. We are targeting locations that are already on our existing fiber. So both of those are happening at the same time, all of which may impact 2025. But as we pointed out, as we look out at our business in the fiber solutions side, we believe there is plenty of opportunity around our existing fiber plant in great markets throughout the top 30 markets in the US, which is most of where our fiber assets reside now, that we think we can get back to a 3% growth in fiber solutions going forward even with a more limited focus to on- and near-net opportunities as opposed to expansion opportunities. And as you pointed out in your second point of your question on the core leasing activity in fiber solutions, it was a very good quarter for us. And it gives us some encouragement that the changes that we are making are available to still generate that 3% growth over time. And as you pointed out, that's some of the best growth or core leasing activity we've seen in that business in quite some time. And what I would say is, it really is the focus of the sales team having gone out and made the right types of decisions with the right types of customers to sell the right types of products. And as Steven was talking about earlier, put the right incentives in place to make all of that happen. And our sales team and sales leadership have done a phenomenal job of taking that input and attacking the market. And we are seeing that there's still -- like I said, we're encouraged by how much opportunity we are unearthing that's near our already existing assets.
Steven Moskowitz:
Yes. I guess, I'd like to also just add, in a recent meeting with our teams on the enterprise fiber side in New York, some of the sales teams were asking a question about greenfield builds. And the answer to that was it is not like it's binary, right? It is not a yes or no scenario. And the example that the individual brought up was if I'm able to get a deal done with a very well-known hedge fund who wants 15 floors of fiber built in Hudson Yards. And I think there is opportunity for colocation, and we can prove in that the returns from day one are going to be X and the payback is going to be within the realm of what we're looking at, is that something that I can compete on? And the answer was yes. So we are not counting out not doing greenfields at all. It is just from our perspective, it just has to be profitable.
Matt Niknam:
If I could just follow up on the first question. I know there was a reduction of about $300 million that was announced, and I think that was reaffirmed in today's release for discretionary spend in totality for fiber. That is six months of this year, so is it fair to extrapolate that and say next year could look more like an $800 million number? Or is that too much of a generalization and we should just sit tight till January to get additional color?
Daniel Schlanger:
Yes. Unfortunately, you are not going to love the answer. It's going to be, you're going to need to sit tight till January because like I tried to say earlier, the amount of CapEx that we ultimately spend is going to be based on the amount of activity we see from our customers. Whatever that CapEx is, is a lower capital intensity than it would have been historically for us. But it still could be that there is lots of activity we can go out and get. To Steven's point, that would be very profitable. And so we don't want to give any guidance that says we will definitely have this amount of capital reduction going into next year. Plus we haven't given a forecast for 2025, so it's hard to give a reduction to a forecast that doesn't exist. So unfortunately, Matt I'm sorry, you are going to have to just sit tight and wait until January.
Matt Niknam:
I had to ask. Appreciate it. Thank you both.
Steven Moskowitz:
No problem.
Operator:
The next question comes from Batya Levi with UBS. Please go ahead.
Batya Levi:
Great. Thank you. A couple of follow-ups. First on the small cell side, can you provide more color on how we should think about the pacing from here? Should we assume the 3,000 to 5,000 delayed build will be just tackled down to maybe the 10,000 annual deployments you were targeting next year? And then one more follow-up on the fiber CapEx reduction if you don't mind. The $300 million, can you give us a split on what the small cell versus fiber mix of that is?
Daniel Schlanger:
Sure, Batya. On the first point again, we don't have really a plan for 2025 that we've talked about publicly around the small cell nodes that we would deploy. But the push-out of the 3,000 to 5,000 nodes from 2024. We do believe some of those will hit in 2025 because it is a deferral of those nodes going into a future period, a lot of which will happen in 2025. So we do think we have a pretty good sense or a good starting point for 2025 and think that the small cell business will continue to grow as we've talked about, that we think we can grow that business in the double digits over the next several years. And because our backlog is what it is, because we are able to continue to build for our customers, we feel comfortable with being able to grow double digits. On the $300 million reduction in CapEx, the majority of that reduction is in small cells as opposed to fiber solutions.
Batya Levi:
Okay, thank you.
Operator:
The next question comes from Eric Luebchow with Wells Fargo. Please go ahead.
Eric Luebchow:
Great, thank you for taking the question. On the small cell backlog and what you expect to deliver the next couple of years, any change to the mix of colocations versus anchor tenant nodes? How should we think about that shifting as a result of the strategic review or the operational review that you announced last month?
Steven Moskowitz:
Hi, Eric. It's Steven. The fact that we are going to be shifting down on the anchor nodes means that a higher percentage of our nodes going forward will be colocations. And I think we've already communicated that of the 50,000 backlog a big chunk of those, the majority of those are colocations. So when you look at our overall mix, you are going to see a higher percentage of colos versus anchors.
Eric Luebchow:
Okay, great. And then just a higher level question on tower activity. So perhaps with the exception of DISH, is the majority of your activity today still amendment related from carriers upgrading mid-band spectrum? Or have you seen any activity out there related to new colocations to densify tower grids in any of your markets, particularly the more urban ones? And if you haven't seen that in a big way, any kind of visibility on when that tower densification phase may pick up in the next couple of years? Thanks.
Steven Moskowitz:
Yes. I mean, most of our activity is amendments. There is a few colocations in the mix but it is not a large percentage. Obviously, some of the colocations we are getting are coming from, as I said before, kind of the smaller regional players out there, not necessarily the Big 3 or DISH. And we expect that same type of cadence to happen over the next number of quarters.
Eric Luebchow:
Thank you.
Operator:
The next question comes from Walter Piecyk with LightShed. Please go ahead.
Walter Piecyk:
Thanks. Just I was hoping you could remind me of the components of believe it or not, I'm asking about SG&A at $200 million, $204 million not much of a reduction from last year, especially given the reduction we saw in first quarter. Maybe there is just some non-cash things that moved back and forth. But can you just kind of talk about the components in there and what areas are targeted for reductions going forward?
Daniel Schlanger:
Yes. Well, I’m happy to talk about the components that are in there? Majority of our G&A, as you would imagine are people that are working on the back office functions that we have, whether those are accounting or finance things of that nature, legal and IT. And what we've been able to do in that business, we've been able to offset all of the labor inflation that we've seen over the course of the last several years by the operating plan we have. And we are and have targeted the G&A and believe that we will have reductions over time, which is part of the $60 million reduction that we talked about and that we will realize in 2024. And you'll have to just allow me, I don't have the number off the top of my head of what quarter-over-quarter.
Walter Piecyk:
That's fine. I'm just looking -- I mean, last year you had -- it kind of came up in the second quarter. But then I looked at prior years, and there doesn't seem to be seasonality there. So when you talk about $60 million, is it – that is all for the fourth quarter level and then that's just going to keep going down? Or maybe there was some proxy fees in there in the quarter but I guess there wasn't -- I mean, that was a big number last year.
Daniel Schlanger:
Yes, there were $20 million of proxy fees --.
Walter Piecyk:
But that wasn't there last year in the second quarter which also was up, but whatever. I just -- it seems like obviously an important component but you don't think there is anything abnormal there? And so when are we going to see these reductions kick in? Obviously, the proxy fees drop out in the third quarter, so you'll get whatever that number is an immediate drop, and then we'll see some additional organic improvements in Q3 or are these all back-end loaded?
Daniel Schlanger:
Yes. So as you pointed out, I think as we see the proxy fees come out, we will be at a lower run rate than we saw in 2023 because we also did a restructuring in 2023, where in Q2, we reduced our G&A pretty substantially as well. And we believe we see the impact of the money we saved was largely done very recently at the end of Q2. So you will see the impact in Q3 and beyond. So you'll see both of those things go on. So I think the answer to your question is basically yes, it is back-end loaded to see the reductions. And if you look at the numbers in 2023, you see a similar outcome which even not looking -- not focusing on Q2 but going from Q1 to Q4, there was a substantial reduction. But it started in Q3 because we had a very similar timing for the restructuring we did last year to this year. So I do think you'll see a reduction in G&A. And the spike in the second quarter was very much because of the proxy-related fees.
Walter Piecyk:
Okay. So I mean look, at the end of the day, next year assuming there is no more proxy fights and then you've got the reduction in whatever you announced in terms of guidance, you should get some much better efficiencies in 2025, hopefully, right?
Daniel Schlanger:
That is the plan. And as we've talked about a few times today, we announced the restructuring, the changes we were going to make in June. We have completed those changes for the most part and believe that we will see the savings that we are talking about roll through our income statement over the course of the last half of this year.
Walter Piecyk:
Got it. All right, thank you.
Operator:
The next question comes from Brandon Nispel with KeyBanc Capital Markets. Please go ahead.
Brandon Nispel:
Yeah. Hi, thanks for taking the questions. A lot have been answered already. But you guys have talked about, in the past the guidance 5% tower growth through '27, and that 75% of that is contracted. So I guess a simple question is how are lease applications trending today in terms of your confidence in achieving the remaining sort of 25% to hit that 5% growth rate? Thanks.
Daniel Schlanger:
Yes. I would -- what I would say there is that the 5% growth rate is based off of, as Steven talked about earlier, the MLAs we have in place and then additional growth we see going forward. The application volumes are much more akin or much more linked to what we see as near-term growth in our tower business. And what we've talked about is that we've maintained our 4.5% guidance for 2024 because we see activity levels that are very much in-line with what we expected when we gave guidance last year. So it is all very much in-line with what we would have expected. And we gave that 5% longer-term guide knowing what was going on in 2024, so it is all in line with what we would have expected to get to that longer-term growth.
Brandon Nispel:
Great. Thanks.
Operator:
Our last question today comes from Brendan Lynch with Barclays. Please go ahead.
Brendan Lynch:
Great. Thanks for taking my question. How should we interpret the changes in operations in the fiber and small cell businesses while the sales process is still ongoing? It sounds like you're engaged with multiple counterparties currently. And it seems like maybe it would be a little bit premature to make such changes that somebody else is going to be managing these assets somewhat imminently.
Steven Moskowitz:
Yes. I mean, I guess we look at it, the process really was two different processes under one, where strategic obviously is trying to figure out what makes the most sense for the fiber division as it relates to shareholder value in the future. And then from an operations perspective is what can we do to continually improve our business. And we are trying to have that continuous improvement mindset going forward with this company in all elements of our businesses. So we just felt there was opportunity. We wanted to take it. We felt it was something that was going to be good for our business, good for the division, and good for the profitability of our business as we move forward, which in essence, creates more shareholder value. So just -- we want to take the opportunity now and implement these changes because it is kind of separate apart from how we think about the strategic part of a potential sale.
Brendan Lynch :
Okay, thank you.
Steven Moskowitz :
Thank you.
Operator:
This concludes our question-and-answer session and concludes the conference call. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Hello, and welcome to the Crown Castle First Quarter 2024 Earnings Call. All participants will be in listen-only mode. [Operator Instructions] After today's presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the call to Kris Hinson, Vice President, Corporate Finance and Treasurer. Please go ahead.
Kris Hinson:
Thank you, M.J., and good afternoon, everyone. Thank you for joining us today as we discuss our first quarter 2024 results. With me on the call are Rob Bartolo, Crown Castle's Board Chair; Steve Moskowitz, Crown Castle's recently appointed President and Chief Executive Officer; Tony Melone, Crown Castle's former Interim President and Chief Executive Officer; and Dan Schlanger, Crown Castle's Chief Financial Officer. To aid the discussion, we have posted supplemental materials in the Investors section of our website at crowncastle.com that will be referenced throughout the call this afternoon. This conference call will contain forward-looking statements, which are subject to certain risks, uncertainties, and assumptions and actual results may vary materially from those expected. Information about potential factors which could affect our results is available in the press release and the risk factors section of the company's SEC filings. Our statements are made as of today, April 17, 2024, and we assume no obligation to update any forward-looking statements. In addition, today's call includes discussions of certain non-GAAP financial measures. Tables reconciling these non-GAAP financial measures are available in the supplemental information package in the Investors section of the company's website at crowncastle.com. With that, let me turn the call over to Rob.
Robert Bartolo:
Thanks, Kris, and good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us. I would like to start by welcoming our new CEO, Steven Moskowitz. As you know, the CEO search committee along with the full board has been actively engaged in a robust process to find our next leader. We worked with Russell Reynolds and evaluated a number of talented and highly qualified candidates. Ideally, we were looking for someone with strong operating experience in the tower industry, a track record of strategic capital allocation and value creation, as well as prior CEO experience. This process has resulted in the unanimous view of both the CEO search committee and the full board that Steven is the ideal person to lead Crown Castle going forward. A 25-year industry veteran, Steven is a proven executive with deep tower operating experience. Steven spent 12 years at American Tower, including the last seven years as EVP and President of the U.S. tower business. During his tenure, American Tower's U.S. operations became the largest and most profitable U.S. wireless infrastructure company, tripling in size to more than 20,000 sell sites. After American Tower, Steven served as the CEO of NextG Networks, a provider of fiber-based small cell solutions. At NextG, Steven produced market-leading returns on invested capital, while increasing the asset base to approximately 10,000 nodes. Most recently, Steven served as CEO of Centennial Towers, where he created a leading provider of build-to-suit cell sites in Brazil, Colombia, and Mexico by focusing on prudent capital allocation and operational excellence. As I've gotten to know Steven, it's clear that his experience and capabilities in the areas of operational efficiency, process improvement, capital allocation, and his proven ability to build strong leadership teams will serve our customers, shareholders, and employees extremely well. We are excited to welcome Steven and believe his leadership will enable Crown Castle to effectively execute on its strategic and operating plans and grow value for all shareholders. I would also like to thank Tony Melone for serving as our Interim CEO for the past three months. With the help of Tony's leadership, the company remains on track to meet its 2024 financial and operating goals and is well prepared for a seamless transition to Steven as the company's next CEO. I'm going to turn the call over to Steven in a few minutes to introduce himself and say a few words. But as you can imagine, after starting in the job late last week, he won't be in a position to take your questions at this time. But before I turn the call over to Steven, I would like to provide an interim update on our Fiber Review process. As you know, in January, the Board created a committee to direct a strategic and operating review of the company's fiber business with the goal of enhancing and unlocking shareholder value. The board engaged financial advisors, Morgan Stanley and Bank of America, as well as strategic and operating advisors, Altman Solon, as well as another leading management consulting firm to assess our businesses, core capabilities, competitive positioning, and organizational structure and also to perform market analysis and operational benchmarking. The goal of these assessments was to determine how to optimize the company's enterprise fiber and small cell businesses and determine the fit, value, and synergies both inside and outside of Crown Castle. As it relates to the overarching conclusion, this review confirmed that we have premier assets in attractive markets throughout the U.S. The next step was to determine the optimal path to maximizing the value of these assets, both within and/or outside of Crown Castle. To help assess the potential value creation opportunities, we have recently engaged with multiple parties, who have expressed interest in a potential transaction involving all or part of our fiber business. These discussions are ongoing. While we will not comment further on these discussions during the call, we are excited to have Steven on board to help us think through our strategic alternatives. We believe his extensive experience in the digital infrastructure sector will be extremely beneficial throughout this process. Regarding our operational review, we have concluded our work with our external consultants. The main conclusion is that they believe there are opportunities for operational improvement in both our enterprise fiber and small-cell businesses regardless of the outcome of our strategic review. We have begun sharing these insights with Steven, who will work with the board and the executive team to develop a revised operating plan that he will share with investors when appropriate. I speak on behalf of the board by saying how pleased we are to have concluded our CEO search with the appointment of such a talented and proven tower executive as well as progressing substantially on our Fiber Review. We are laser focused as a board and moving rapidly yet methodically on these initiatives that we laid out in late December. To reiterate what I said earlier, we believe Steven is the person best suited to lead Crown Castle through the next stages of our Fiber Review, as well as position the company for long-term success and value creation. We look forward to providing further updates as appropriate. Before I turn the call over to Steven, I would like to say, thank you to the talented employees at Crown Castle for continuing to serve our customers and deliver on the financial results we guided to for 2024. I'm impressed by your dedication and capability to stay focused even during these times of uncertainty. With that, let me turn it over to Steven.
Steven Moskowitz:
Thanks, Rob. I appreciate the kind introduction and hello, everybody. I know there's some people on the call that I know from the past, others that don't know me yet, and I look forward to getting to know all of you in the months ahead. But I want to start off conveying how excited I am about the opportunity to lead Crown Castle and really what lies ahead for this company. As you may have seen from my background, I've been at this for a long time. And during my time, I've learned that my leadership success really has been a function of a relatively simple formula. It's been developing and clearly articulating a strategy that the management team and employees can align with and also execute from the onset, having a great team of managers, who are trustworthy and driven and solutions oriented and get things done. Also maintaining a culture that is customer service driven and based on values of hard work and thoroughness, thoughtfulness, and also having some fun. Also giving employees the necessary resources and tools to make their jobs easier and operate more efficiently, very, very important. And doing these things in a way that focuses on long-term value creation for our shareholders, most critical. Now I think we should be able to apply this type of formula at Crown Castle and also apply the benefit I have of coming really from the other side as a competitor of this company for many, many years. And it really provides me with knowledge and a fresh perspective and it's really a big part of the reason I'm here is that I believe that this company has many good things to offer, but also has the opportunity to be best-in-class in this industry. I'm also here because I am optimistic about the long-term future of the needs for communications infrastructure and also because I believe the U.S. market is just the best place to do business in the world and have had some experiences in other markets outside the U.S. I've also admired Crown Castle's assets and customer service focus in the past and instinctively, I believe this company is ripe for significant upside. So all that said as incoming CEO, the company's strategic review is a top priority for me. I've already been digging in the last couple of days, start analyzing what's been done by the Fiber Review Committee and also be collaborating with the board to finalize and execute a strategy, of course, that maximizes shareholder value. Beyond that, even as Rob mentioned, it's kind of too early for further comments on the approach that we're going to end up taking with fiber and small cells. But there are other imperatives that I'll be focused on working with the teams at Crown Castle such as enhancing customer relationships, making sure we manage cash prudently, and finding ways to operate more efficiently. So we definitely convert more new revenues to cash flows. And without a doubt, this is going to be a process that will take some time. But I know together with the employee base, we will create solutions to refresh and reengineer the company in many different aspects of the business operations, finding both some quick hits along the way for some kind of short-term success and longer-term changes that will make it easier for the employees to do their jobs and be more effective at serving our customers, which really will meaningfully enhance our performance. It's going to improve our operating margins and we'll be in a better position to capture unfair share of new leasing business and new site development as our customers ramp back up spending on network expansion. So anyway, that's kind of it for now from me. Before I hand it over to Dan to walk you through our first quarter results, let me first thank Tony, he has been unbelievable, his unyielding commitment to Crown Castle and a great partner as an Interim CEO. And I also appreciate him helping me to get acclimated over the next month to ensure that we have a smooth transition. I'd also like to say thanks to Rob and the board for their faith in me as incoming CEO. And of course, the employees here of Crown Castle, who are continuing to perform at a high level. So with that, I look forward to providing more details about our strategic initiatives as they unfold and I look forward to taking your questions when I host our second quarter earnings call. So Dan, I'll hand over to you.
Daniel Schlanger:
Thanks, and welcome, Steven. It's great to have you here as part of Crown Castle team and look forward to working with you. We delivered first quarter results in line with expectations and remain on track for our full year outlook as we continue to focus on executing for our customers and shareholders. Our first quarter results demonstrated our customers' consistent and growing demand for our shared infrastructure assets, leading to us generating 5% organic growth, excluding the impact of Sprint Cancellations. The 5% growth in the first quarter consisted of 4.6% growth from towers, 16% growth from small cells, which includes $5 million of higher than expected non-recurring revenue received in the period, and 2% growth from fiber solutions. As we had anticipated, the solid organic growth delivered in the quarter was offset by the following three items, leading to a year-over-year decrease in site rental revenues, adjusted EBITDA, and AFFO. First, a $50 million reduction in the site rental revenues related to the Sprint Cancellations. Second, a combined $54 million reduction into non-cash items, straight-line revenue, and prepaid rent amortization. And lastly, a $26 million decrease in services margin contribution due to the combination of lower tower activity and the decision we had made and implemented last year to discontinue offering construction and installation services. Turning to Page 5 of our earnings materials. Our full year outlook remains unchanged and reflects a year-over-year decrease in site rental revenues, adjusted EBITDA, and AFFO due to the non-cash and one-time items I just mentioned. On Page 6, our expected organic contribution to full year site rental billings remains unchanged with consolidated organic growth of 2% or 5% exclusive of the impact from Sprint Cancellations. The 5% consolidated organic growth consists of 4.5% growth from towers compared to 5% in 2023, 13% growth from small cells as we expect 16,000 new billable nodes in 2024 compared to 6% growth in 8,000 nodes in 2023 and 3% growth from fibers solutions compared to flat in 2023. Moving to Page 7. We continue to expect to deliver $65 million of AFFO growth at the midpoint, excluding the impact of the Sprint Cancellations and non-cash decrease in amortization of prepaid rent. Turning to the balance sheet. Since transitioning to investment grade in 2015, we have strengthened our balance sheet by extending our weighted average maturity from five to seven years, decreasing the percentage of secured debt from 47% to 6%, and increasing the percentage of fixed rate debt from 68% to 90%. In addition, we ended the quarter with approximately $6 billion of availability under our revolving credit facility and only $2 billion of debt maturities occurring through 2025, providing us with ample liquidity to fund our business. The steps we have taken to strengthen our balance sheet provide us with financial stability and flexibility as we evaluate strategic paths forward. Lastly, our 2024 outlook for discretionary capital remains unchanged at $1.5 billion to $1.6 billion or $1.1 billion to $1.2 billion net of $430 million of prepaid rent received. To wrap up, we continue to deliver good underlying growth across each of our businesses in the first quarter. At the same time, we made substantial progress on the strategic and operating review of our fiber business and successfully concluded our CEO search. I'm excited to welcome Steven to Crown Castle and look forward to working together with him and the board to enhance value for all shareholders. With that, M.J., I'd like to open the line for questions.
Operator:
Thank you, sir. We will now begin the question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] Today's first question comes from Michael Rollins with Citi. Please go ahead.
Michael Rollins:
Thanks, and good afternoon. Rob, great to have you on the call and Steven, congratulations on joining Crown Castle. I have two questions. One, just a clarification. Can you clarify the engagement that you mentioned with multiple parties? You referred to the fiber segment, I believe. Does that potentially include both fiber solutions and small cells or do those engagements refer only to the fiber solutions segment? And then second, just taking a step back, can you share a bit more of what you learned from shareholders over the last few months and the fiber strategic review that can help investors think about the direction that the board and management team want to take this company in over the next few years with respect to strategy and asset mix? Thanks.
Robert Bartolo:
Hi, Mike. Yeah. Nice to talk to you again. It's been a while. Let me take your first question. I believe it was, does the engagement with the fiber business contain the whole fiber business or just the enterprise portion of the fiber business? And what I would say to you is, there's different parties that are interested in different parts. I would say, as a board, as a company, we are open to whatever type of a transaction would maximize shareholder value. So we're looking at different structures, different formats. So to answer your question, either the whole thing or what I would call the enterprise fiber business are both in play. Now the second -- remind me, the second part of your question, Mike?
Michael Rollins:
Yeah. Just taking a step back after conversations you have with the shareholders and then going through the fiber strategic review so far, just what you've learned and how you're thinking about kind of optimizing strategy and go forward asset mix over a multiple-year period of time?
Robert Bartolo:
Yeah. That's a little more difficult to answer because there are some different views from different shareholders. I think in general, we received positive support from shareholders in terms of us conducting the strategic review of the fiber business. It's too early to really say, this is the definitive direction we're going to go in, so we have to complete that work. And Steven is going to be a big help in completing that work. So I would say the opinions have varied somewhat on shareholders, but they're all excited that we are taking these steps to unlock shareholder value.
Michael Rollins:
And just maybe lastly, timing. Is there any timing expectations for the next update or a goal in terms of when Crown wants to complete this part of the process?
Robert Bartolo:
Yeah, Mike. As you can see from our CEO search where we're working hard and we're dedicated to performing for the shareholders. So in a manner that is rapid, but is also thorough. So at this point in time, I can't give you a date and I wouldn't want to put a limit on the time it's going to take. But just know that we've made substantial progress to get to this point in time and only about three or four months of work. So we're happy with the pace that it's going, but I don't have an end date for you.
Michael Rollins:
Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. The next question is from Jonathan Atkin with RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead.
Jonathan Atkin:
Hi. Good afternoon and great to connect again. Maybe just a quick follow-up to the last question and that revolves around openness. You talked about maximizing shareholder value. Could that possibly include selling partial stake in fiber solutions and/or small cells? So that's maybe the follow-on question. And then my question would be just as we think about kind of the cadence for how second half momentum might shape up in the core tower business as well as in fiber solutions and small cells, anything you're seeing operationally around how to think about the next three quarters of the year and are we going to be seeing any kind of a different run rate going forward? Thanks.
Robert Bartolo:
Yeah. Hi, Jonathan. I'll take your first question. In terms of the form of a potential transaction, we're open to any form that we think does maximize shareholder value. So I think you're kind of referring to a JV structure where you would -- we would sell some portion of either the entire business or one of the two segments of the business. So I'm not going to rule anything out. Those type of transactions are on the menu. And at this point, I can't give you any more guidance as to what we would favor because we're still working through that. But yeah, we're not ruling anything out in the maximization of shareholder value.
Tony Melone:
Jonathan, it's Tony. Regarding the second question, as Dan mentioned, we grew tower revenue 4.6% and the annual guide is 4.5%. And while traditionally seasonality suggests that the second half activity generally is higher than the first. So far, what we've seen suggests that there's nothing that we see that would cause us to see something fall outside the range that we've already guided to, which if you recall was $105 million to $115 million for the year. So we still see ourselves in that range.
Jonathan Atkin:
And if I could ask one more about cost cutting because there's been some announcements in the past around office consolidation and just where do we land in that process and anything further to expect around cost optimization?
Daniel Schlanger:
Yeah, Jon. It's Dan. We, as you know, in July or August last year announced a consolidation of offices as well as a reduction in mostly our tower force. We have realized the benefits of all of those cost savings and they're coming through in our income statement this year and have been incorporated into our guide, but are coming true. So that was greater than $100 million of cost savings. With additional cost savings, we're always looking to try to find ways to optimize the business. And I would believe that Steven coming in will help us think through if there are other things we might be able to do, but there's -- there are no plans at this point that we would point to.
Jonathan Atkin:
Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. The next question comes from Ric Prentiss with Raymond James. Please go ahead.
Ric Prentiss:
Thanks. Rob, good to hear you and Steven, welcome back and we agree that U.S. tower business could be maybe the best business ever.
Steven Moskowitz:
Thanks, Ric.
Ric Prentiss:
Yeah. One question, philosophical. When you think about the dividend kind of path at Crown Castle, dividends flat from '23 to '24. I think previous language had been if we could grow it again beyond '25. How should we think about the puts and takes about philosophically how the board -- it's a board decision, not asking to make the decision today. But philosophically, how do you want to fund the dividend, how do you want to grow the dividend? What do you want cash payout to kind of be as you think about the strategic review? Is there anything you can help us kind of wrap around philosophically, how you're thinking about what the dividend might have -- how it might be structured into the future?
Robert Bartolo:
Hi, Ric. Thanks for the question. The dividend is extremely important to the board and the company. We recognize that our investors, many of which that's a significant component of return for the company as a REIT. We believe our balance sheet is strong and that our earnings and our balance sheet well support the dividend. So we're going to have to -- as we go through and the strategic review and everything else, we're going to have to go through that. But I want to just reiterate our support for the dividend and it's a key part of our capital and our philosophy as a board.
Ric Prentiss:
Okay. And then you guys have touched on a couple of times for previous questions with Mike and Jonathan on the fiber small cell piece. How easy is it to separate the small cell business from the fiber solutions business? Just thinking through kind of how Crown's genesis is getting into small cells and then expansion beyond that. But how easy is that to physically kind of pull those apart?
Robert Bartolo:
Yeah. So, Ric, there's many fiber companies and there's many small cell companies that operate without a fiber company, enterprise fiber companies such as ours. So part of the review, one of the learnings is that those businesses can be separated out. And so that increases our alternatives and informs our view as we progress through the strategic review.
Ric Prentiss:
Okay. Makes sense. Again, good luck, Steven. And good to hear all you guys on the call today. Thanks.
Steven Moskowitz:
Thanks, Ric.
Robert Bartolo:
Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. The next question is from Simon Flannery with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.
Simon Flannery:
Great. Thank you very much and congrats, Steven on the new role. Dan, you had said before that you expected first half to be the low point in FFO per share. Just wanted to get an update on that. Obviously, you're reiterating guidance today. And then, I wonder if you could just give us an update on just carrier or customer activity across the three segments and in particular just where we are on the carriers moving on to more of an densification phase for 5G and wrapping up the upgrades to mid-band 5G on the sites they haven't upgraded yet? Thanks.
Daniel Schlanger:
Yeah, Simon. I'll take the first one. Yes. We still believe the first half will be the low point for AFFO per share and believe we will grow the AFFO per share through the course of the remainder or the second half of 2024.
Simon Flannery:
Thank you.
Tony Melone:
Hello, Simon, it's Tony.
Simon Flannery:
Hi, Tony. How are you?
Tony Melone:
Good. Regarding activity levels, as I said earlier, we're extremely pleased with results for the first quarter, but as I said, there's nothing that we see right now that takes us outside of our guidance range that we previously provided. What I will say, on the -- I'll reiterate what I said last quarter regarding the carriers. To deliver on the promise of 5G throughout their footprint will require a significant amount of continued densification. Hard for me to predict over what period of time, but there's clearly still a lot of work I believe that they will do to densify their 5G network over years to come, and I think provides a great opportunity for Crown and our tower portfolio.
Simon Flannery:
Great. And just maybe a quick follow up on the small cells, you talked about the 16,000 nodes up from 8,000. Can you just give us an update on what your sort of year-to-date pacing has been, that's a big jump sequentially?
Tony Melone:
Yeah, Simon. As you know, we typically provide increments in 5,000 ranges. And so we don't have a further update on that for this quarter. What I can tell you is that the 16,000 sites that we expect, we continue to feel -- have line of sight on for 2024. And as you might expect in what you saw in previous years that is typically back end loaded.
Simon Flannery:
Great. Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. The next question is from Nick Del Deo with MoffettNathanson. Please go ahead.
Nick Del Deo:
Hi. Thanks for taking my questions. And I want to echo others comments and congratulate Steven on the new role. I guess returning to the cost efficiency topic, Rob, you noted in your prepared remarks that there seem to be opportunities to run the fiber segment more efficiently. You didn't make any comments about the efficiency with which the tower business is run. Should we take that to mean that you believe the tower business is run as efficiently as one can reasonably expect or has that just not been an area of focus yet?
Robert Bartolo:
Well, here's what I would say, the operational review is primarily focused on the fiber segment. So we didn't have a deep dive into the tower cost structure. As Steven's remarks indicated, there are areas for operational efficiency, and he's an expert at extracting those on the tower side as well. So, like I said, it was more focused on the fiber segment, but stay tuned on the tower segment as well.
Steven Moskowitz:
Yeah, I guess...
Nick Del Deo:
Okay.
Steven Moskowitz:
Hey, Nick. This is Steven. Yeah. I just add that, again, I have some ideas, but I just don't -- it's too early to say anything concrete. My style is typically to first brainstorm with the employees, with the teams, and kind of learn from them, from their perspective what's gone well and what they think needs attention. And then after that, I'll add my thoughts and opinions, and we'll work together in coming up with an improvement plan. And that plan needs to be executed well, have a timeframe, we had a reasonable cost, and this type of operational efficiency movement. I think a lot of people here are eager for some change that will help improve our customer service and improve their abilities to get their jobs done. So I'm pretty excited about it. But again, nothing to communicate at this point. So I guess stay tuned.
Nick Del Deo:
Okay. That's helpful. Thanks for sharing all those details. And maybe in a similar vein, last quarter, I think Tony talked about implementing a change in how the segments are run. I think it was basically giving the COO's full P&L responsibility, which is an approach he liked. I guess it's early, but wondering if you're seeing any benefits from that yet, and if that sort of structure is generally consistent with how you like to run the business, Steven?
Steven Moskowitz:
What, I've been an observer. So give me a little bit of time to kind of learn about the different roles, kind of who does what and how things are being implemented. And as I said in my opening remarks, the key focus for me is to have great people. We're all aligned on a relatively simple strategy, so we'll be working on that. But in the meantime, yes, the team has done a nice job coming out of first quarter, and there's momentum. So it's good to see.
Tony Melone:
Yeah, Nick. And I'll add to that. It's hard to know exactly what contributed to our results, but I will say the fact that we're able to deliver results, solid results for the quarter, across all lines of business, despite the changes that were going on in the business, myself coming in, etc., gives me comfort that the added focus was helpful. But as I said to Steven, all these changes were made in mind that new CEO certainly is going to come in and provide their own influence on how the business should be run, and the team is adaptable.
Nick Del Deo:
Okay. Great. Well, thank you, everyone.
Operator:
Thank you. The next question is from David Barden with Bank of America. Please go ahead.
David Barden:
Hey, guys. Thanks so much for taking the question. I guess I asked this question last quarter, which was -- which would come first, the CEO or the strategy? And obviously, Steven, you are coming first, so welcome. And Rob, it's good to hear from you again. So, Steven, I guess, what kind of agency do you believe you have in constructing the strategy that is ultimately going to be what you're going to own on a go forward basis? And then, I guess, second, more of a detailed questions, Dan. It looks like a non-big three renewal helped the straight line revenue EBITDA this quarter. Could you elaborate a little bit on what that was? Thanks.
Steven Moskowitz:
Hey, David. It's Steven. I couldn't hear part of your question, but I think you were asking how I'm thinking about my involvement in what the future strategy will be of the company.
David Barden:
Yes.
Steven Moskowitz:
I mean, part of the reason why I came here was because I spent a lot of time with Rob, spent a lot of time with the different board members and Tony, obviously, and felt very comfortable that there was good chemistry between the team and myself, the team of board members and myself. And for me, chemistry is critical. I've had it for many, many years in many different roles, and it's allowed me to build trust, hopefully quickly with my bosses, I guess, and then implement and be empowered to implement in a way that I feel will best set the company up for future success. So I feel I'm going to be very involved, and I think maybe there's a little bit of frustration with, hey, the fiber review is to some degree, there's a lot of work that's been done and Moskowitz (ph) is coming in now and maybe there's a little bit of delay, but from my perspective, it's critical for me to really have a lot of exposure to what's been done to provide as an influencer for the strategy and then agreeing with Rob and the board on the best way to move forward. I'm not sure if that answers your question. I hope it does.
David Barden:
That's helpful. Thank you, Steve.
Daniel Schlanger:
Hey, Dave. I'm struggling with how to answer your question because I'm not exactly sure what you're looking at to conclude what you concluded. There was nothing that I would point to that is a new contract or an extension or anything that would significantly impact straight line and there wasn't a big jump in straight line. So I'm struggling with how I can address whatever you're thinking through.
David Barden:
Sorry. Yeah. I was just looking at the supplemental disclosure where the contract renewable contract revenues in 1Q last quarter was going to be about $230 million, now it's about $180 million. And it didn't show up again in the later schedule. It looked like something had gotten pushed out or renewed. I'm sorry if I got it wrong.
Daniel Schlanger:
No. There was nothing that was pushed out or renewed. And I can't answer the question directly here, but I'm happy to follow up with you or anybody else who has the same question, but there was nothing that got renewed in the quarter.
David Barden:
Okay. Great. Thanks, Dan.
Daniel Schlanger:
Yeah.
Operator:
Thank you. The next question is from Richard Choe with J.P. Morgan. Please go ahead.
Richard Choe:
Hi. I just wanted to follow up. In the Fiber Review, there's the sale, full or partial, but then there's also the efficiency review. How should we think about the two processes going on simultaneously?
Robert Bartolo:
Yeah. So I would say on the sale of all or part, that's a strategic priority where, as I said earlier, we're engaged with third-parties, so that process is ongoing. And then on the operational review, maybe I'll pass it to Tony.
Tony Melone:
Yeah. Essentially, Richard, the work on the operational side with third parties has concluded. We've done the analysis with them and we've shared that work. Internally, we've analyzed the work and processed it, etc. And now we've passed all that work we've done to Steven, and he's going to work with the management team, as we said earlier, to take that input and obviously add his own insight and apply that to the business.
Richard Choe:
Great. And then with the services business, are you seeing any changes with the, I guess, ongoing services business?
Robert Bartolo:
No. As we talked about, we think that the services, the contribution to margin that we have to service in the first quarter, when we talked about it last quarter, are generally going to be consistent across the quarters. So there's nothing that would have changed our view of that consistency at this point.
Richard Choe:
Great. Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. The next question is from Matt Niknam with Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.
Matt Niknam:
Hey, guys. Thanks so much for taking the question. Just two quick ones, if I could. First, on the fiber business, is the strategic review affected pace of bookings any sort of customer behavior over the last several months at all, whether on the fiber solutions around the small cell side? That's number one. And then secondly, just any color you can provide in terms of pacing of application volumes, carrier activity on the tower side, and whether there was any meaningful change or pickup across the four carriers intra quarter? Thanks.
Daniel Schlanger:
Thank you, Matt. So on the booking side, the answer to your question is, that we have good line of sight as we talked about on the bookings for both small cells as well as fiber solution to give us comfort in the guides we provided both the 16,000 small cells for the year as well as the 3% growth for the year, so feel very comfortable with that. And so on your second question, in terms of pacing. No, there hasn't been any evidence -- any material change in terms of pacing within the quarter that would be of significance to comment on.
Matt Niknam:
Great. Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. The next question is from Batya Levi with UBS. Please go ahead.
Batya Levi:
Great. Thank you. A couple follow-ups. First, on the tower activity. Can you provide us an update on what percent of the towers have been upgraded with 5G equipment now? And if you're seeing any change in the carrier activity to support fixed wireless? And a follow-up on the discretionary CapEx side, can you talk about how much of that is already committed to? Can we expect that you might pull back a bit as the strategic review is ongoing? Thank you.
Tony Melone:
Regarding 5G, I think the last time we commented on 5G, we don't regularly update on that number. I think it was 50% and we'll provide an update at some point in the future. But we have no update for you today on that.
Robert Bartolo:
Carrier activity on fixed wireless.
Tony Melone:
Yeah. Carrier activity on fixed wireless, really it's hard for us to – the activity. our activity, it's hard for us to determine whether it's being driven by fixed wireless or their general mobility services. And quite frankly, it's hard for them to determine that themselves. Just the nature of the cell site, their capacity needs as dictated by both and which one triggers that relief requirement is difficult to predict. So it's almost impossible for me to give you a feel for what's driving that and how much of it is fixed wireless.
Daniel Schlanger:
On discretionary capital and how much is committed. We do, as you know, have long term commitments based on the contracts that we've signed with our customers. Those commitments we intend to honor. We'll continue to build the small cells we need to build, we'll continue to build the fiber for our fiber solutions business. And as you saw, we have not changed guidance for 2024. So we still anticipate that we'll spend that and can't really comment on what the strategic review might do, for all the reasons that have been said before. So, as of -- so, we continue to think that we will spend the money and generate the growth that we articulated in our outlook.
Batya Levi:
Got it. Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. The next question is from Brendan Lynch with Barclays. Please go ahead.
Brendan Lynch:
Great. Thank you for taking my question and congrats, Steven, on the new role. Maybe just another one, on the strategic review. Obviously, you're considering what to do with the fiber and small cell business, but is there a component of the strategic review that is also considering how to manage the remaining business if you were to sell off those assets, whether that be to expand the tower business into new markets or enter a new vertical of some sort?
Robert Bartolo:
Yeah. This is Rob. Thanks for the question, Brendan. The strategic review right now is focused just on the fiber business. So to answer your question directly, we're not focused at this point in time on what would happen after the strategic review, and the future course and strategy of the company in terms of capital allocation in those -- in that nature. I think Steven is going to be a huge part of that, along with the board. So yeah, the strategic review is just focused on the fiber business right now.
Brendan Lynch:
Okay. Thank you. That's helpful. And maybe one follow up, with the higher for longer rate environment, do you anticipate that this will affect carrier spending this year or next, or are they primarily responding to network needs when considering their deployment pace?
Tony Melone:
Brendan, this is Tony. I would -- based on my experience there, there's always potential for some movement along the edges, but principally, they're responding to capacity needs, quality of service needs, etc. So I would say, the vast majority of their decision making in year is based on that.
Brendan Lynch:
Okay. Very good. Thank you for taking my questions.
Operator:
Thank you very much. The last question this evening is from Brandon Nispel with KeyBanc Capital Markets. Please go ahead.
Brandon Nispel:
Hey. Thanks for getting me in and taking the questions. I was hoping to go back to the tower business. You obviously called out, your first quarter results were right in line with guidance. But I think, big picture, your level of leasing is well below historical levels that you've seen, and much closer to the trough than any sort of peak. So I was hoping you could talk about the confidence you have in terms of reacceleration. It didn't sound like that was in the guidance for this year, but something to get back to your 5% long term growth guidance? And I'll leave it at that. Thanks.
Tony Melone:
Yes, Brandon. Thanks. It's Tony again. I think I just reiterate what I had said earlier when I said last quarter. I know what's needed to cover 5G at the speeds that are promised, again, with fixed wireless and that activity, and just overall growth in data demand in that business, that requires either more spectrum or more densification. And as you know, in the past few years, the carriers have been focused on utilizing spectrum and deploying 5G. And I believe at some point in the future, densification efforts will pick up, but it's very hard to predict exactly when that timing will start. But as Steven said, I believe in the U.S. market. I believe in our shared infrastructure model. And so, I'm optimistic that those types of growth levels will be back at some point.
Steven Moskowitz:
Hey, Brendan. It's Steven. Yeah. I just say that there's always phases of builds, right, all the G’s that we've seen over the years, Phase 1 is pretty much massive building over two, three years. And then, there's kind of a pause, right? They still spend capital, they're still filling holes in their network and doing overlays, etc. And that takes typically, could take a year, could take a year and a half. In this market maybe it's taking a little bit longer, but then Phase 3 kicks in, and then there's a reacceleration. And so I think what we're saying is we're kind of in that Phase 2. And I think the good news for me, at least, is I'm coming in new here. But my goal is, again, to work with the team to make sure that we're exceptionally prepared so when Phase 3 comes, which we're anticipating, hopefully at some point in 2025 that we're able to really maximize our unfair share of business going forward.
Brandon Nispel:
Thanks for taking the question.
Operator:
Thank you. This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would now like to turn the call back over to Tony Melone for closing remarks.
Tony Melone:
Thank you, M.J. I'd like to take this opportunity to express my appreciation to the Crown Castle team throughout the country. Over the past three months, I've had the opportunity to spend time with many of you, and I've been impressed by your dedication to our customers and shareholders. You have made my time at Crown Castle something I will look back on fondly. And I thank you for all you do. And I'd also like to say that, like Rob, I'm really excited to have Steven here. When I worked at Verizon, I had the benefit of being one of Steven's largest customers. And I got to see his professionalism, customer focus, and strong operational acumen first-hand. I believe Steven's skills, experience and proven track record of improving financial performance will help the great team we have across the company, take advantage of the growing demand for communications infrastructure. I look forward to working with Steven over the next month and staying actively engaged on the board. Thank you and have a good evening.
Steven Moskowitz:
Thanks, everybody.
Operator:
The conference has now concluded. Thank you very much for your participation. You may now disconnect your lines.
Operator:
Good day and welcome to the Crown Castle Fourth Quarter 2023 Earnings Call. [Operator Instructions] Please note this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Kris Hinson, Vice President of Corporate Finance and Treasurer. Please go ahead.
Kris Hinson:
Thanks, Scott and good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us today as we discuss our fourth quarter 2023 results. With me on the call this morning are Tony Melone, Crown Castle’s Interim Chief Executive Officer; and Dan Schlanger, Crown Castle’s Chief Financial Officer. To aid the discussion, we have posted supplemental materials in the Investors section of our website at crowncastle.com that will be referenced throughout the call this morning. This conference call will contain forward-looking statements, which are subject to certain risks, uncertainties and assumptions and actual results may vary materially from those expected. Information about potential factors which could affect our results is available in the press release and the risk factors sections of the company’s SEC filings. Our statements are made as of today, January 25, 2024 and we assume no obligation to update any forward-looking statements. In addition, today’s call includes discussions of certain non-GAAP financial measures. Tables reconciling these non-GAAP financial measures are available in the supplemental information package in the Investors section of the company’s website at crowncastle.com. With that, let me turn the call over to Tony.
Tony Melone:
Thanks, Kris and good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us. Before I begin, I’d like to take a moment to thank Jay Brown for his 25 years of service to Crown Castle, including the past 7 as CEO. We are grateful for his many contributions over those years and wish him well in his retirement. As we work to identify the next CEO, I am also thankful for the Board’s confidence in me to lead the company during this interim period. I am excited to serve in this capacity. I have been associated with Crown Castle for over 25 years, principally as a customer, but also as a joint venture partner in the early days and most recently as a member of Crown Castle’s Board of Directors. Over that time, I have witnessed the Crown Castle team of dedicated talented people grow the company into the nation’s leading provider of shared communications infrastructure. In my first few weeks in the new role, I have been impressed by the open, candid and thoughtful discussions I have had with teammates throughout the organization. I am enthusiastic and optimistic about our path forward. In the near term, I will be focused on the following priorities. First and foremost, I am committed to ensuring that our organization continues to execute for our customers, positioning us to meet or exceed our financial and operating goals in 2024. Secondly, I want to facilitate a seamless transition to the company’s next CEO. And lastly, I will assist the Board in evaluating the alternatives that may come out of our strategic fiber review and help position the company to maximize shareholder value regardless of the outcome of that review. My confidence in achieving these priorities is bolstered by having a closely aligned leadership team that is focused on delivering strong operational performance. To that end, I am pleased to announce that Dan Schlanger will continue serving as Crown Castle’s Chief Financial Officer. Dan has been a valuable member of our executive leadership team for the past 7 years. His expertise, leadership and institutional knowledge will be vital as we position the company for success in 2024 and beyond. In addition, Mike Kavanagh, currently, our Chief Commercial Officer, has been appointed Chief Operating Officer for the Tower segment. Chris Levendos will remain in the role of Chief Operating Officer for the Fiber segment. The Tower, Small Cell and Fiber Solutions sales teams currently under Mike will be distributed across these two organizations. I believe this change in leadership structure provides an enhanced focus on generating the highest returns in each business segment and will best enable us to maximize value across our portfolio. We have also recently taken steps to further strengthen our company’s Board with the addition of three new directors. Jason, Sunit and Brad each bring valuable financial, operational and industry experience. We look forward to benefiting from their unique insights and expertise as we work to leverage our strong foundation and position Crown Castle for the future. At this point, I’d like to share some of my personal insights into how I see Crown Castle positioned. In my 30 plus years of experience in the wireless industry, I have seen the Tower business grow tremendously, particularly during periods of generational upgrades. During my time at Verizon, the shift from 3G to 4G required more tower densification than initially expected and more than initially deployed. The coverage and capacity from the new 4G technology and corresponding new spectrum that it was deployed on was not sufficient to meet the promised performance levels of that technology. This was especially true at CellEdge [ph] and resulted in further densification over time. I think a similar dynamic is in play with 5G. The remaining densification required to deliver on the promise of 5G performance will drive not only robust tower growth, but also significant demand for small cells. As the largest shared communications infrastructure provider in the U.S., with a unique portfolio of towers, small cells and fiber, I am excited to see how we can take advantage of these industry trends and deliver value to our shareholders. As a final note, the work of the CEO Search Committee is underway and the Fiber Review Committee is well into its work as it oversees the Board and management’s review of strategic and operational alternatives that maximize value across our enterprise. We will provide updates on each as developments warrant. With that, I will turn the call over to Dan.
Dan Schlanger:
Thanks, Tony and good morning everyone. I want to start by saying how glad I am to continue serving as Crown Castle’s CFO. This is a great company and a great industry, and I look forward to helping deliver on our 2024 plans while positioning the company to grow long-term shareholder value. Moving to 2023 results on Page 4. We finished the year in line with our expectations. Full year site rental revenues grew 4%, which included $212 million of core organic growth, excluding the impact of Sprint Cancellations. In the year, tower organic growth was 5%, supported by our decision to pursue holistic long-term agreements with each of our major customers. Tower growth remained resilient despite the industry-wide slowdown in tower activity in the middle of 2023. Additionally, small cell growth was 6%, resulting from 8,000 new nodes in 2023. We completed an additional 2,000 nodes in the year that are expected to begin billing in the first quarter of this year. Finally, fiber solutions revenue was flat in the year. The slowdown in tower activity in 2023 had the most pronounced impact in our services business, driving a $100 million decrease in our margin year-over-year. The decline in services contribution along with increased interest expense from the rise in interest rates in 2023 partially offset our revenue growth, resulting in 2% AFFO growth for the year. Turning now to Page 5. Our full year 2024 outlook remains unchanged. Strong underlying growth across our business continues to be supported by increasing data demand and the network densification required to meet it. We continue to forecast tower activity levels consistent with the back half of 2023 as well as accelerating small cell growth. With 2,000 nodes shifting from 2023 to 2024, we now expect to deliver 16,000 new nodes this year. With respect to Fiber Solutions, we returned to growth of 3% in the first quarter of 2023 and continue to expect 3% organic growth in 2024. However, as discussed in our call last quarter, the following three items are expected to negatively impact our 2024 results. First, the $170 million of Sprint Cancellation payments we received in 2023 will not recur in 2024. Second, we anticipate a combined $250 million reduction in non-cash items, specifically to our straight line adjustments and amortization of prepaid rent. And lastly, we expect $55 million in lower contribution from services gross margin. Due to these impacts, our 2024 outlook shows year-over-year declines in site rental revenues of $160 million or 2%, adjusted EBITDA of $250 million or 6%, and AFFO of $270 million or 8%. Normalized for the impact of the items I just mentioned, site rental revenues, adjusted EBITDA and AFFO would show year-over-year growth of 4%, 5% and 3% respectively. Turning to Page 6. Expected organic contribution to full year 2024 site rental billings remains unchanged with consolidated organic growth of 2% or 5% excluding the impact from Sprint Cancellations. The 5% consolidated organic growth consists of 4.5% growth from towers compared to 5% 2023, 13% growth from small cells as we expect 16,000 new nodes in 2024 compared to 6% growth in 8,000 nodes in 2023 and 3% from Fiber Solutions compared to flat in 2023. Full year 2023 site rental revenues were $21 million above the 2023 outlook at the midpoint, inclusive of approximately $5 million higher than expected non-recurring tower segment revenue in the fourth quarter. Our 2024 outlook for site rental billing remains unchanged and we expect year-over-year core leasing activity to be within the growth ranges in the chart. Moving to Page 7. We expect to deliver $65 million of AFFO growth at the midpoint, excluding the impact of Sprint Cancellations and the non-cash decrease in amortization of prepaid rent. Turning to the balance sheet. In December of 2023, we issued $1.5 billion of long-term fixed rate debt, allowing us to end the year with approximately $6 billion of unutilized capacity on our revolving credit facility, a weighted average debt maturity profile of 8 years and 92% fixed rate debt. Lastly, our 2024 outlook for discretionary capital remains unchanged at $1.5 billion to $1.6 billion or $1.1 billion to $1.2 billion, net of $430 million of prepaid rent received. To wrap up, strong underlying growth across our business continues to be supported by increasing data demand and the network densification required to meet it. The contracted agreements we have in place provide line of sight into continued underlying growth over a multiyear period. We believe this growth provides a stable foundation for our current dividend and supports our 2024 CapEx plan without issuing equity. Our unparalleled domestic portfolio of tower, small cell and fiber assets, provides a growing number of opportunities to create value for our shareholders. With that, Scott, I’d like to open the call to questions.
Operator:
We will now begin the question and answer session. [Operator Instructions] The first question comes from Simon Flannery with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.
Simon Flannery:
Thank you very much and good morning. Tony, I appreciate the comments on the densification. It would be great to get a sense of what you think the shape of that looks like. I think you’ve assumed that we continue at the levels of the last couple of quarters. Do you think we sort of pick up then over the next 2, 3, 5 years as the traffic continues to grow or is it going to be a little more lumpy than that? And any comment on the current leasing environment we did here, I think Nokia’s CEO earlier this morning, talking about expectations of some green shoots in the second half of this year. So if you are kind of having better, more constructive conversations around plans that would be interesting to know as well? And then Dan, just one thing for you on the discretionary CapEx, if there was a decision to do something on the fiber side, to what extent is that CapEx committed today versus still being something that could change later on depending on what the committee comes up with? Thanks.
Tony Melone:
Simon thanks for the questions. I appreciate it. Let’s start with the shape and trajectory. It’s hard to speculate, obviously, on the progress that the carriers might make in terms of – a lot depends on their own personal capital allocation decisions. My personal opinion based on history is that it will likely be fairly non-lumpy approach over time. But it’s very hard to speculate exactly how it will play out. In terms of some of the commentary recently, it’s too early for us. We have not seen anything that will cause us to change our view of 2024.
Simon Flannery:
Okay, thank you.
Dan Schlanger:
And I’ll take the CapEx question, Simon. Thanks. Most of what we have on the small cell side of our business is committed, because we have customer obligations to build the small cells, the 16,000 that we have coming on air that we are building throughout 2024. But we obviously are going to be looking at – through the strategic review anything we can to drive the most value possible, including what our CapEx plans are, so we’ll have that in mind. And if anything does change out of that, we’ll update anybody. But as of right now, we see the same capital going for 2024 than we expected when we gave guidance in October.
Simon Flannery:
Great. And could you just clarify that 2K that sort of slipped into 2024? What was the situation there?
Dan Schlanger:
Sure. I think we discussed it a lot of the small cell node build that we had for 2023 was going to be back-end loaded, it was. And we built some at the very end of the year that we weren’t able to start billing until the beginning part of 2024. So we are talking about something crossing over a year, so being a month later than we expected or even less than that. It just – when we get into trying to figure out exactly when a node is going to be completed, it’s hard to pick to a day. But we feel like we have made the progress we expected to make during the year in 2023 of delivering for our customers and the fact that the billing didn’t happen just kicks it over into 2024.
Simon Flannery:
Great. Thanks, Dan.
Dan Schlanger:
Sure.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Ric Prentiss with Raymond James. Please go ahead.
Ric Prentiss:
Thanks. Good morning, everyone. And Tony, good to talk to you again.
Tony Melone:
Thanks, Ric.
Ric Prentiss:
A couple of questions. First, Dan, I appreciate the color on the 2,000 nodes for Simon. How should we think about what the disconnected nodes were in ‘23? And then I think there is another disconnected nodes in ‘24, probably around the middle of the year. Can you kind of help us understand, was that like maybe [Technical Difficulty] 2,000 to 3,000 disconnected last year and maybe 3,000 to 4,000 getting disconnected this year from that Sprint and other?
Dan Schlanger:
Yes, Ric, as we discussed in 2023, a lot of the Sprint cancellations happened and some of those were on the small cells. We churned about 5,000 small cells in the year, which is if you look at kind of the number of small cells we have on air, we went – started 60,000 beginning of the year, took them down to 55,000 during the year with those 5,000 now, and now we’re up back to 65,000 that we – that are generating revenue for us at this point. I think we had talked about that. There is no more going into 2024 of actual churn, but there is some lop-over impact of having churn at the midpoint of the year that will then have a full year churn impact in 2024, which is what you’re seeing. So we don’t anticipate any significant or any churn really at all in our small cell business in 2024.
Ric Prentiss:
Okay. And then I think previously, one of the churn slides had anticipated maybe 25 million of small cell churn split between ‘24 and ‘25, is that still the case?
Dan Schlanger:
That is still the case.
Ric Prentiss:
Okay. And then one more esoteric question. American Tower has started recognizing some capital expenditures for exercising purchase options from carrier transactions. I think in your 10-K, you all talk about you maybe have $9 billion of purchase options that could come due over the next many years. How should we think about how that flow of money comes in? Is it ratably equal over those different periods, whether it was an AT&T set of towers or a T-Mobile set of towers or any thought of giving us a table at some point about when the $9 billion worth of value would come in? And I think I did see a note that less than $10 million would come in before ‘25. Just want a little more color on that, if I could.
Dan Schlanger:
Sure. To try to give a little color as we went into some of the transactions where we purchased towers from our carrier customers, some of those were structured as long-term leases where we had a purchase obligation at the end, which is what you’re referring to the $9 billion obligation that we have. Those are not ratable. They really start to kick in, in the mid-2030s area. And we will consider your comment there of providing more color or more certainty around when they come in, in the future in some sort of table, but we’re not close right now for that to be an obligation that we need to worry about at this point. Sorry, it’s an option at this point. It’s not an obligation. We have the option of doing so or not. A bad language on my part. But we can provide some of that color as we get closer, but we’re still a long way away from that being a material number for us. And as you pointed out, less than $10 million, it’s just – it isn’t something that in the near-term has much impact. And as it does and as we get closer, whenever that maybe, we can provide more color at that point.
Ric Prentiss:
Okay. Very good. Thanks, everybody. Stay well.
Operator:
The next question comes from Michael Rollins with Citi Investment Research. Please go ahead.
Michael Rollins:
Thanks. Good morning. Tony, I’m curious, based on the experience you have over a whole number of years on the network side. As you look at the Fiber segment for Crown, how do you see the opportunities for Crown to improve marginal returns on capital? And how quickly that could potentially happen within the organization with some of the changes that you’re making and maybe some of the opportunities that you’ve been able to identify why you’ve been on the board and now serving as the CEO? Thanks.
Tony Melone:
Thank you, Michael. Certainly. As we look at performance in the Fiber segment of our business, if I go back to my three priorities, clearly improving performance in those segments is part of strategy in terms of how we achieve our 2024 results and how we position ourselves better for the future. So I have benefit from my own experience over 30 years plus, obviously, working with the management team here. But we also have the benefit of the strategic fiber review that’s going on right now. So I will be informed from a lot of different directions. And based on that, I’m sure I’ll get a good insight in terms of the things that we can do. But as you saw from the announcement, there are certain things that I think we need to do right out of the gate. Personally, I like a management structure where accountability is unambiguous. The change in the COO structure, I believe, provides an opportunity to improve the returns we’re getting out of the Fiber segment. And I expect that to happen in 2024. I think there is other levers that are likely to be pulled that we will be looking at through the process, things like capital allocation, things like cost structure, etcetera. And in terms of timing, yes, I do believe that we can make those improvements – make improvements in 2024 on the trajectory of our performance and our returns in that segment.
Michael Rollins:
Thanks. And then just one other question. Over – I suppose it was a few months ago, there are reports about Crown Castle considering selling or monetizing, I should say, part of its land portfolio. And there was some discussion of that on the last earnings call. Has Crown come to a decision about what to do in terms of monetizing land on a go-forward basis as part of capital location for the company?
Dan Schlanger:
Yes. I don’t think we commented at a time when those press release rumors came out one way or the other of what we were doing. But I do think that the overall concept remains that one of the things that we want to make sure of is that we are maximizing the value of all of the assets in our portfolio. And if that includes something that we think that we can sell and generate better value for in an external space then we can internally, then we would absolutely look at it. And that would include land under our towers, but only if we believe that the best we could get from an external party would exceed the value that we get as owning that asset. And like I said, that’s true of all the assets we own. And if something does come up, we would obviously identify it and talk about it with our investors. But at this point, we don’t have anything to talk about.
Michael Rollins:
Thanks.
Operator:
The next question comes from David Barden with Bank of America. Please go ahead.
David Barden:
Hi, guys. Thanks so much for taking the questions. Dan, we welcome back. Good to have you. I guess, Tony, my first question is, could you talk a little bit about the order of operations of what’s going on? Is the plan to make a plan with respect to fiber and then find the right CEO to fit with the plan? Or is the plan to find a CEO to help create the plan to own that plan and execute that plan? It would be interesting to hear what is actually the plan and what the timetable is going to be. And then, Dan, when we set 2024 guidance, lots hasn’t changed. But what has changed is the rates environment, attitudes, opinions, consensus views around rates in 2024. And can you kind of elaborate a little bit on how that element of the 2024 outlook didn’t change from what we were thinking in the third quarter guide? Thank you.
Tony Melone:
David, thanks for the questions. So both committees, the CEO search committee and the fiber review committee’s strategic review are underway. I think it’s too early to speculate on how it will play out. I have great confidence in the CEO search committee that in their process of evaluating and determining the best fit for our company. At the same time, I’m sure we will have information coming out of the strategic review in that process. And so I think the two will naturally come together and provide us clarity in terms of how we move forward. So at this point, it’s too early to say a whole lot more about that. But I am very confident that the two committees will be approaching this very thoroughly.
Dan Schlanger:
Yes. And Dave, on the interest expense. As you are well aware, market perception of interest rates, it moves around quite a bit. It moved up. It moves down. There are plenty of things in our guidance where we have ranges and what we think there are reasonable expectations of what could happen. Some of those sometimes go better, some of those sometimes go worse and very rarely do we get it right. So what we do when we’re talking about guidance is think about things in an overall perspective. And we believe at this point, there isn’t enough clarity around what interest rates are going to do. And even in the last, I don’t know, 2 weeks the perception of what interest rate cut likelihood is in March is dramatically. So we’re not comfortable enough with what the interest rate environment looks like over the course of 2024 to make a change at this point. And like I said, there would be some impact at the AFFO level. And there is going to be positive negatives throughout the course of the year based on what we thought was going to happen and what actually happened only when they start to exceed the ranges that we’ve given, we will really consider changing the guidance.
David Barden:
Okay. Great, helpful guys. Thank you so much.
Operator:
The next question comes from Brendan Lynch with Barclays. Please go ahead.
Brendan Lynch:
Great. Thanks for taking the question. You guys have guided to 5% organic Tower growth through 2027, which is largely already contracted in your MLAs. Can you talk about what level of consistency or volatility we should expect on a quarter-to-quarter basis for core leasing activity?
Dan Schlanger:
Sure. Just to clarify the comment you made, we’ve given some disclosure that through 2027 we believe our Tower growth will average 5% and 75% of that is contracted to date. And I think you could understand it. There is more contracted in the early years than there is in late years. But we believe that the amount of activity will support our 5% growth going forward. And in terms of volatility on a quarter-to-quarter basis, our business is very stable. But that doesn’t mean that every quarter is the same. So we will have volatility quarter-to-quarter. But over the course of the year, I think it is a pretty stable growth pattern. And that has been proven over time. But even in the years, we grew at 5% in 2023. We expect to grow 4.5% in 2024. That level of volatility will likely remain something in that vicinity. But when you’re talking about a business of our size and scale, that’s not a huge amount of volatility overall. So we feel good about both the stability of our cash flows and the growth of those cash flows over the next several years.
Brendan Lynch:
Great. Thanks. That’s helpful. And then on churn, it was the lowest that you’ve had in at least 5 years in 2023. Are you expecting it to be structurally lower going forward? Of course, this is excluding Sprint.
Dan Schlanger:
Yes. We have said that what we believe our churn is going to be between 1% and 2% per year. We were on the low end of that, obviously, in 2023, as you pointed out. We – there is nothing that would say we’re going to be outside of the 1% to 2% range, but we do think we will be on the lower end of it over – in the near-term, just given some of the churn historically have been related to consolidation churn that is not earning any more other than the Sprint consolidation that you just spoke of. And we think that churn in the industry is very low. It’s one of the reasons that it makes the Tower business such an attractive business is that we have growth driven by the things that Tony was talking about densification, continuation of data demand, limited capital expenditure requirements and limited churn, so we can have long-term growth without having to spend a lot of money. That’s a great place to be, and we believe that churn will remain relatively low on the lower side of that range for a bit.
Brendan Lynch:
Great. Thanks for the color.
Operator:
Next question comes from Nick Del Deo with MoffettNathanson. Please go ahead.
Nick Del Deo:
Hey, good morning. Dan, glad to hear that you won’t be going anywhere. First, there is obviously been a lot of change and uncertainty in a pretty short period of time. I think about the reduction in force, the leadership and the Board changes, the U-turn on the plan to centralize the organization and obviously, what’s going on with the fiber review. In light of all that, how would you characterize morale and the state of the workforce? And are you confident that there won’t be any sort of operating impacts or unwanted loss of human capital stemming from all that?
Tony Melone:
Nick, thanks for the question. Yes. So in my time here, I’ve spoken to a great number of employees. And I would say that the morale is good. I mean, obviously, change is unsettling for people. But people – the employees want to just get down the work. They want to serve their customers. They want to drive the business forward. And I think they are excited about moving forward. So I am not experienced in my short time here, any evidence to say that people are reacting in a way that I would be concerned about our ability to execute our plan in 2024 and beyond. So I’ve been happy with everything I’ve seen so far, and I think the employee morale is very good.
Dan Schlanger:
I’ll add a couple of things as I probably have a little bit more context given my perspective here. First, it’s been great to see how Tony has engaged with our employees. He’s been talking to a lot of people and I think the response has been very positive, both as Tony just said from his perspective, but also people have appreciated his coming in with plans and ideas and didn’t – not just sitting here doing nothing, like, hey, we’re going to make this better. And I think people like that. I think people like the direction. And as you pointed out, Nick, there has been a lot of change and a lot of uncertainty. And I think Tony has projected a view of understanding what we need to do and having an idea of how to get there. And I think that has been helpful. And lastly, even in the fourth quarter, we delivered on what we expected to do, and there couldn’t have been much more turmoil than in the fourth quarter for us. So, I think that’s just a testament to how well people stay focused on, as Tony pointed out, delivering for our customers and generating what we need to do for the business. And the overarching commentary that I have received recently has been just let us go back to work. There has been a lot of turmoil. We like what we do. We like working here. We like delivering for our customers, let’s go do that. And I think that’s the overarching feeling that we have gotten from most of our employees and to which I would just say thanks to all of them who are listening. I know it’s been a tough time and appreciate all the dedication you have shown to getting things done anyway.
Nick Del Deo:
Okay. That’s terrific to hear. If I can ask one more about fiber solutions, your bookings in that segment in Q4 were – we are at a level that would get you to your 2024 guidance if they were sustained over the course of the year. And it was a nice step-up from what we have seen over the last 1.5 years or so. I guess can you talk a little bit about what’s behind the improvement, so we can get additional comfort and its sustainability?
Dan Schlanger:
Sure. I think we tried to address this through 2023 because I think a lot of people were rightfully skeptical that we would return to 3% growth in the fourth quarter, we talked about it. But we gave a couple of reasons for that. One was we saw more activity in the first half of the year, and we thought that it was going to come through by the fourth quarter. And we had year-over-year comps that were a little easier to meet on the fourth quarter. So, what we are seeing is a level of activity based on customers wanting more data to move and more connectivity for all of the general macro trends that are going on in the world right now that you are very well aware, things like artificial intelligence and moving data to centralized data center locations or the cloud, whatever you want to call it. And just the overall amount of data increasing, data demand increasing from wired perspective, not just wireless. And we are seeing those transactions in our favor. And because of our focus on larger businesses, government agencies, education, medical, financial services, those types of industries, that demand generally has been a little bit more predictable than we have seen in the other parts of the fiber market, like the small and medium business parts of the fiber market. And what we expected to come true has come true. Those bookings did happen. We did see the growth and we do see that going into 2024 and all of the industry information and analyst expectations that we have seen would support our view that 3% growth is achievable in 2024.
Nick Del Deo:
Okay. Got it. Thank you, guys.
Tony Melone:
Thanks.
Operator:
Next question comes from Jon Atkin with RBC Markets. Please go ahead.
Jon Atkin:
Thanks. I am Jon and welcome back, Dan. So, with several new Board members involved and obviously, the new acting CEO, I just wondered if you could give a little bit of color about the operating metrics you are going to be examining or are examining around small cells and fiber that will inform your strategic review, whether it’s same tenancy growth and the fiber metrics and the small cell metrics may actually be separate. Can you give a little bit more color as to what you will be looking at as you conduct the review or asking the committee to look at?
Dan Schlanger:
Jon, thanks for the question. I would answer that by saying that review will be a very thorough holistic review that will take into account all aspects of our operations. So, to get more specific than that in terms of the nuances, you can be assured, it will be a very thorough process. And obviously, will allow the Board and management team to be very informed in terms of what the best path forward would be.
Jon Atkin:
And I might have missed it, but what’s kind of the timeline that you are looking at for conducting that?
Tony Melone:
We have not going to speculate on how long the process will take. What I will tell you is we are very, very much into the process now. The Board and management has been active in this since the beginning of the year. But I can’t give you a timeline on when that will complete.
Jon Atkin:
And then two more questions. I am interested in the backlog of small cells and roughly what portion of that – of those incremental nodes are kind of second and third tenants versus requiring capital, maybe a rough split? And then lastly, I think it might be useful to review the history. You have done a lot of acquisitions over the years NextG, and Sunesys, Wilcon, and FPL, and Lightower and so forth. And as you look at the totality, the fiber business, in particular, how would you characterize the product mix? How much would you consider to be more infrastructure versus managed services? Any kind of views on that would be useful to hear. Thanks.
Dan Schlanger:
Let me take the first one on this, Jon. In the backlog, we have about 50,000 nodes in our backlog, of which about 60% are co-location nodes. So, as we have talked about, that number has moved over time where the majority of our nodes had been anchor builds for a long time and the majority of the nodes in our backlog now or co-location nodes. We are seeing a progression there. And I think that that does speak to over time, a decrease in capital intensity to get the same amount of growth. On the product mix of our fiber acquisitions or our fiber business around infrastructure versus managed solutions, I think I would go back to what I have said earlier, which is what we really focus on is trying to deliver the right products to a larger base of – base of larger customers that are generally more sophisticated than the general fiber market, which leads us more towards in many times an infrastructure build. But as the market does move and managed services becomes important, we are evaluating our product set to make sure that we remain top of mind with our customers and are delivering exactly what they need. But the vast majority of what we do is aimed at kind of those large-scale enterprises and they generally do have more sophistication in how they manage their networks internally and require less of the services that have become more in vogue recently in the fiber solutions business.
Jon Atkin:
Thank you.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Batya Levi with UBS. Please go ahead.
Batya Levi:
Great. Thank you. A couple of questions. Can you talk about how we should think about capital allocation in terms of maximum leverage you would like to take on in the next year or 2 years? And maybe an update on the operational efficiencies and cost control as you continue to take on the strategic review and I think you had positive relocations. Is there any impact that we should be thinking about from that? And lastly, the pacing of how leasing activity for ‘24, the guides 4.5% for the year, should we expect that it was more second half weighted? Thank you.
Dan Schlanger:
Let me take the first one on leverage. Our target leverage is around 5x debt to EBITDA. We understand that given the spending of capital over the course of 2024, along with some of the non-cash reductions that are going to reduce our – our non-cash impacts that are going to reduce our EBITDA that our leverage will tick-up a bit. But we believe that over time, the growth in our business will allow us to naturally de-lever back to our 5x and believe that we are in a good shape to do so. I wouldn’t talk about a maximum leverage at this point. I don’t think we need to talk about it that way. What we want to do is maintain somewhere close to our 5x. And then when we take above it, like we have recently and we will continue to in 2024, have very good line of sight and how we can bring it down with good capital management and good operating performance, which is what we think will happen.
Tony Melone:
Dan, why don’t you answer the pacing of the leasing, and then I will circle back on the operational efficiency question.
Dan Schlanger:
Sure. On the pacing of leasing, it’s generally level loaded through the year. Like we said, we believe the level of activity in 2024 approximates what we saw in the back half of 2023, and we think that will remain relatively consistent. There is a little bit, as is typical, that is back-end loaded. There is a little bit more in the second half than the first half typically when we see these, the leasing, mostly because our customers act that way. They spend more money in the second half of the year than we do in the first half of the year. But it’s nothing that I would speak to would cause a significant change in pacing of leasing activity in 2024.
Tony Melone:
Thanks Dan. Regarding operational efficiency, the move to – with COOs of P&L responsibility, obviously, is a step that I feel will improve our line of sight on the efficiencies needed in each segment. And I think that in and of itself will allow us to drive efficiencies. In addition to that, there is a – the work we did in 2023 in the middle of the year with consolidations that – it’s important to distinguish that from the consolidation that you are referencing that we reversed. Those are complete. The benefits of those were in the 2023 results and will continue and flow through into our 2024 results as well. So, we feel very comfortable with the achievement of those efficiency initiatives. When I looked at the consolidation that had been planned for the end of 2023 and early ‘24, if you recall, we did not identify specific savings. And quite frankly, those savings were more longer term in nature. So, the guidance we provided for 2024 and the efficiencies that we needed, I feel strongly that those efficiencies can and will be gained irrespective of our decision to cancel the consolidation that was previously announced. So, I don’t have any concerns in terms of achieving the efficiencies we need with respect to the change in that consolidation plan.
Batya Levi:
Thank you very much.
Operator:
The next question comes from Richard Choe with JPMorgan. Please go ahead.
Richard Choe:
Hi. I just wanted to follow-up on the backlog for small cells. Is that still being added to, but the overall level should come down given the higher build base that you are having for 2024? And then I have a follow-up.
Dan Schlanger:
Yes. We – the short answer, Richard, is yes, we continue to add to our backlog. It’s just in small increments at times, and there is not – because we want to make those kind of rounded numbers, we won’t always announce everything we do. But given the size of the orders that we got from specifically T-Mobile and Verizon, we are working through those – that backlog with those customers, and that is the majority of the work that we are doing, and that is the majority of the 50,000 node backlog that we have currently. So, we do anticipate that as we deliver the 16,000 nodes that we expect to deliver in 2024, the backlog will come down based on that – moving them out of backlog and into revenue generating, which is actually, we think a very good thing.
Richard Choe:
And then given the transition and strategic review period, is there potentially a shift maybe to allocate more capital to towers in terms of builds or acquisitions, or is that something that you have largely stayed away from and will continue?
Tony Melone:
Yes. Richard, I think all options were on the table. It’s a strategic review. I don’t think – I think it will be premature to conclude that we would do or not do anything specifically in terms of capital allocation. I think it’s all fair game, and we will be informed by the review, will be informed by just opportunities in the marketplace.
Richard Choe:
Great. Thank you.
Dan Schlanger:
Okay. Operator, I think we have time for one more question, if you don’t mind.
Operator:
Our final question today comes from the line of Eric Luebchow with Wells Fargo. Please go ahead.
Eric Luebchow:
Hi. Thanks for taking the questions. So, just I know you said all options were on the table, but just wondering at a higher level with fiber solutions and small cells, is there any possibility you could consider divesting fiber solutions while retaining your small cell business, or are they more or less married together where it’s very hard to really split them apart from one another?
Tony Melone:
Eric thanks. I think it’s – it would be pure speculation on my part. I think as I have said, all options were on the table. I would not dismiss any option or would not suggest any option is more likely than another at this point in time.
Eric Luebchow:
Got it. And as you look at fiber solutions and small cells, I guess do you think there are ways you could operate the business more capital efficiently without sacrificing the future growth of the business, or does that just kind of naturally come from your improvement in the mix of co-location nodes versus anchor tenant nodes? Thank you.
Tony Melone:
I think we can improve how we operate the business and without impacting the future growth prospects, yes.
Eric Luebchow:
Okay. Appreciate it. Thank you.
Operator:
The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today’s presentation. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Good morning and welcome to the Crown Castle Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. All participants will be in listen-only mode. [Operator Instructions] After today's presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. [Operator Instructions] Please note this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Kris Hinson, VP of Corporate Finance and Treasurer. Please go ahead.
Kris Hinson:
Thank you, Kate, and good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us today as we discuss our third quarter 2023 results. With me on the call this morning are Jay Brown, Crown Castle's Chief Executive Officer; and Dan Schlanger, Crown Castle's Chief Financial Officer. To aid the discussion, we have posted supplemental materials in the Investors section of our Web site at crowncastle.com that will be referenced throughout the call this morning. This conference call will contain forward-looking statements which are subject to certain risks, uncertainties and assumptions, and actual results may vary materially from those expected. Information about potential factors which could affect our results is available in the press release and the Risk Factors sections of the company's SEC filings. Our statements are made as of today, October 19, 2023, and we assume no obligation to update any forward-looking statements. In addition, today's call includes discussions of certain non-GAAP financial measures. Tables reconciling these non-GAAP financial measures are available in the supplemental information package in the Investors section of the company's Web site at crowncastle.com. With that, let me turn the call over to Jay.
Jay Brown:
Thanks, Kris, and good morning, everyone. Thanks for joining us. Our third quarter results continue to demonstrate our ability to generate consistent growth in the face of changes in the industry environment, allowing us to maintain our full-year 2023 outlook for revenue, adjusted EBITDA, and AFFO. Based on the multi-year strength of our business model, we are confident in our ability to grow our dividend beyond 2025 once we get past the Sprint-related churn. Therefore, we are committed to maintaining our dividend in 2024 in the midst of the impact from the non-recurring Sprint Cancellations and lower contributions from services. Based on the timing of these headwinds, we expect the low point of AFFO to occur during first-half of 2024, before returning to growth in AFFO in the second-half of next year, and beyond. Demand for our assets has consistently been driven by our customers investing in their networks to keep pace with the rapid growth in mobile data demand. Through our shared infrastructure model we have helped our customers maximize the benefits of their investment by lowering the cost of deploying networks, networks that have significantly improved our ability as consumers to connect with the people and the world around us. The combination of persistent data demand growth and our ability to provide low-cost shared infrastructure solutions has enabled resilient underlying growth for us throughout generational upgrades and across macroeconomic cycles. Our full-year 2024 outlook demonstrates the benefits of complementing our tower business with a leading portfolio of small cells and fiber. As our customers increasingly focus on 5G network densification so that they can meet the needs of their end users, we expect the total demand for our diverse portfolio of assets to increase. For towers, we expect to generate organic revenue growth of 4.5% in 2024. For small cells, we expect to generate organic growth of 13% driven by around $60 million of core leasing activity as we increase new nodes, from 10,000 in 2023, to 14,000 in 2024. And for fiber solutions, we expect continued acceleration of leasing activity combined with lower churn to generate organic growth of 3%. Excluding the impact of Sprint Cancellations, the combination of organic revenue growth across our business is expected to generate consolidated organic growth of 5% in 2024, up from 4% in 2023. While our growth remains robust, we know we need to continue to get better. Therefore, we continue to simply, streamline, and centralize our business processes and operations, which will reduce our long-term costs and improve our customer experience. Since announcing the restructuring plan, in July, we have reduced our workforce and achieved $105 million of annual run rate savings. Having completed that plan, we have identified additional opportunities to drive further efficiencies, including a plan to move approximately 1,000 employee positions from several locations nationwide to a centralized location by the end of the third quarter, 2024. The strong organic growth and improved operating leverage from the actions we continue to take to reduce costs supports our maintaining our current annualized dividend of $6.26 per share. As reflected in our results and outlook, our differentiated strategy to invest in and build an unmatched portfolio of assets diversifies our sources of growth. Our 40,000 towers, 115,000 small cells on air and under contract, and 85,000 route miles of fiber concentrated in the top U.S. markets make us well-positioned to capitalize on long-term growth in data demand regardless of how carriers deploy spectrum and densify their networks. At the beginning of 5G, our customers moved quickly to deploy record amounts of newly acquired spectrum. This drove record tower activity levels. As this initial surge in tower activity ended, our small cell growth is accelerating as customers shift focus to densifying portions of their networks that have experienced the most traffic. In 2024, we expect to deploy a record 14,000 small cell nodes. Our ability to capture the accelerating growth in small cell demand is driven by the assets and core capabilities that we have built as the largest operator of shared infrastructure in the United States. Our 85,000 route miles of fiber include high strand counts in heavily populated areas where the density of demand is the highest, which makes them the most desirable locations for small cell deployments. We are a highly reliable operator of that fiber network. If fiber goes offline, small cells go offline. And for our wireless customers, network quality and reliability are paramount. We have a world-class team of network operators and engineers that ensures our network is designed to mitigate the impact of any outage, and is capable of fixing these outages quickly and efficiently. We have also developed expertise in navigating the permitting processes with multiple municipal organizations, regulatory agencies and utility companies across hundreds of disparate local markets, each with a unique set of regulations and stakeholders. This expertise allows us to navigate the difficult process of building small cells in the markets across the United States. Finally, we are consistently finding ways to build small cells and fiber more efficiently. These efficiencies allow us to provide the most cost-effective and reliable network solutions for customers. We look to deliver the highest risk-adjusted returns for our shareholders through continuously building on the core capabilities that I just mentioned that generate unique value in the businesses we own and operate. These capabilities reduce the overall cost of deploying and operating communications networks, which becomes even more compelling for our customers in times of increasing capital costs. Of course, higher capital cost impact us as well. Our disciplined approach to capital allocation means that as our cost of capital increases, so must the returns we require from our investments. We are continuously evaluating the expected returns of all of our investments against the rising cost of capital and other potential investment opportunities, including repurchasing our own shares. Consequently, we allocate capital to whatever we believe will generate the highest long-term returns. Being disciplined allocators of capital means that we appropriately adjust the scale and economics of our investments based on changes in technology, customers, and macroeconomic conditions. It doesn't mean that we stop investing. We apply a consistent, rigorous approach to pursue opportunities that generate superior expected returns for their given level of risk. Long-term value is created when we invest in those opportunities. We have a long history of success in towers built on investing through various macroeconomic cycles. And we believe the small cell business is another great example of how we can build a business where our unique capabilities drive sustainable advantages that can grow significant long-term value. In 2024, we plan to capitalize on these opportunities, resulting in approximately $1.2 billion in discretionary capital expenditures net of customer contributions, with $1.1 billion in our fiber segment. This capital is supporting the acceleration of expected 10,000 nodes in 2023, and 14,000 nodes in 2024, reflecting a 40% increase in new nodes with only a 20% increase in capital as we expect more than 50% of the nodes to be colocation nodes. Importantly, we expect to fund this with discretionary CapEx in 2024 without issuing equity. Compared to 2022, this means that we expect nodes deployed in 2024 will be up three times while fiber CapEx is only up 30%. Again, reflecting increasing colocation on our existing assets. The colocation and increasing yields on multi-tenant system continue to be similar to the development of the tower business over the last 25 years. There is one more item I wanted to discuss. As you saw on the release, Dan will be departing Crown Castle next March. While he is not leaving for another five plus months, I wanted to take the opportunity to thank him for the contributions that he has made to the company over the last seven years. He has been integral to the growth of our business and strategy. We are benefiting from the work he has led to increase the duration and predictability of our balance sheet. And he has developed a strong finance team. We will wish him all the best in his next endeavors. We have begun a search to find his replacement and will be considering both internal and external candidates. As a wrap up, we believe the low point for AFFO will be in the first-half of 2024 as we work through the non-recurring Sprint Cancellations and the services headwinds that I mentioned earlier. The consistent growth of each of our lines of business driven by persistent growth in data demand, gives us confidence in our ability to fund our CapEx budget in 2024, without issuing equity to maintain our current dividend in 2024 and to pursue sustainable dividend growth beyond 2025. And with that, let me turn the call over to Dan.
Dan Schlanger:
Good morning, everyone, and thanks for the kind words, Jay. I just wanted to start by saying how grateful I am for having the opportunity to work at Crown Castle last seven years. It's a great company. And I continue to strongly believe it is pursuing a strategy that will generate significant value for shareholders. As a large release for me shareholder, I am excited to see that strategy play out over the next several years and look forward to the company's continued success. Turning to the results, our third quarter was in line with expectations and demonstrated the resiliency of our business. With our customer transitioning beyond the initial surge in 5G deployments, we were able to deliver 4% consolidated organic growth in the quarter, including nearly 4.5% organic growth in towers and accelerating growth in small cells and fiber solutions. Following third quarter results, we updated our outlook for 2023 to reflect the impact on our expected net income of approximately $110 million of charges related to our restructuring plans announced in July as well as a $100 million reduction in tower CapEx. All other items remain unchanged as shown on Page 5. Moving to our 2024 outlook, there are three significant issues that are negatively impacting our results. First, the $165 million of Sprint Cancellation payments we have received in 2023 will not occur in 2024. Second, we will see a combined $240 million reduction to our straight-lined adjustment and amortization of prepaid rent. Both of which are non-cash items. And lastly, a combination of existing the construction services business in lower tower activity levels causes a reduction of approximately $55 million in our services gross margin. Due to these impacts, our 2024 outlook shows year-over-year decline in site rental revenues of $140 million, adjusted EBITDA of $260 million and AFFO of $275 million. Excluding these headwinds, a strong organic growth across each of our businesses contributes $220 million to 2024 adjusted EBITDA, resulting in $65 million AFFO growth. Turning to Page 6, looking ahead we expect attractive revenue growth trends to continue with consolidated organic growth accelerated from 4% in 2023 to 5% in 2024, as we are seeing an increase in demand for our small cell and fiber assets. Contributing to our organic growth is $305 million to $335 million of core leasing. An increase of $30 million at the midpoint compared to full-year 2023. Our 2024 consolidated core leasing of $320 million at the midpoint includes a $110 million from towers compared to a $130 million in 2023; $60 million in small cell compared to $35 million in 2023 and $150 million in fiber solutions compared to a $125 in 2023. This year-over-year increase in core leasing results in an increase in Organic Contribution to site rental billings excluding the impact of Sprint Cancellations of $265 million at the midpoint or 5% which includes 4.5% from towers, 13% from small cells and a return to 3% growth in fiber solutions. The organic growth is offset at site rental revenues by the non-cash decreases and impact of the Sprint Cancellations I referenced earlier along with an additional $10 million of Sprint Cancellation related small cell churn. This is primarily related to approximately 5,000 nodes that were terminated midway through 2023, which creates a rollover effect in 2024. Turning to page seven, we are delivering this increase in organic contribution to site rental billings with a limited increase in expenses of only 2% or $45 million at the midpoint, which benefits from $35 million of savings related to the restructuring we announced in July, when combining this $35 million of expense reduction in 2024 with the $30 million we expected to achieve in 2023 and $40 million of cost savings embedded in the 2024 change in service margin. The total annual run rate savings of our restructuring program is expected to be a $105 million. Inclusive of the $40 million decrease in cost and the impact from exiting the installation services business, we expect services margin to be $65 million to $95 million in 2024. Margins as a percentage of revenue in our services business are expected to improve from approximately 25% in the third quarter of 2023 to nearly 50% by the end of 2024 as we phase out installation services activity and benefit from our cost reduction initiatives. Moving to interest expense, we expect an increase of approximately $105 million at the midpoint as we fund our 2024 investments with incremental debt. When forecasting interest expense, we assume a cost of borrowing implied by the current rate environment slightly above 6% to fund our 2024 capital requirements. Our 2024 AFFO growth, excluding the impact of the Sprint Cancellations and outsize non-cash movement, which more closely reflects the underlying growth of the business is expected to be $40 million to $90 million. With contracted long-term tower leasing agreements, a backlog of 60,000 small cell nodes and a largely fixed cost structure. We have visibility into this underlying growth continuing over a multi-year period providing a solid foundation both for our current dividend and for our expectation of returning to sustainable dividend growth after 2025. As our wireless customers increasingly expand their 5G network investment focus to include both coverage and densification, we are seeing a growing number of value creating investment opportunities. And as Jay already mentioned, our 2024 discretionary capital program is $1.5 billion to $1.6 billion or $1.1 billion to $1.2 billion net of $430 million of prepaid rent received. Importantly, we believe we can fund these investments without issuing equity in 2024. We recognize the collective impact of the reduction in non-cash items and the Sprint Cancellation payments not recurring in 2024. Results in our leverage ratio exceeding our target of five times net debt to EBITDA. However, we expect our durable cash flow growth to organically reduce our net debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio over time to levels in line with our investment grade credit profile as we have seen our business do on multiple occasions through our investment grade history. Since transitioning to investment grade in 2015, we have intentionally strengthened our balance sheet to mitigate risk by extending our weighted average maturity from five years to eight years, decreasing the percentage of secured debt from 47% to 7% and increasing the percentage of fixed rate debt from 68% to 86%. Further, we ended the quarter with approximately $5 billion of availability under our revolving credit facility and only $750 million dollars of debt maturities occurring through 2024, providing us with ample liquidity to fund our business for their foreseeable future. To wrap up, the underlying growth of the business remains solid and the contracted agreements we have in place provide line-of-sight into continued underlying growth over a multi-year period. We believe this growth provides a stable foundation for our current dividend and the ability to continue to pursue our value creating investments in 2024 without issuing equity. Longer term, our unparalleled domestic portfolio of tower, small cell, and fiber assets provides unique access to a growing number of opportunities with superior risk-adjusted returns, which we believe will create value for our shareholders and increase our long-term total shareholder return. With that, Kate, I'd like to open the call to questions.
Operator:
We will now begin the question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] The first question is from Simon Flannery of Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.
Simon Flannery:
Great, thank you, and good morning. And Dan, all the best for the future, it would be great working with you. And I guess you've got one more call with us. Perhaps we could start just talking about leasing activity and the guidance expectations. It seems it's a pretty tricky year. I know you always guide before your peers, but we've got a lot of moving parts with the 5G CapEx cycle winding down here. So, could you just characterize when you set your guidance for next year, particularly on towers, how you characterize the current activity and the expectations for next year in terms of what we expect to see from the major carriers and from the likes of DISH. Is there less visibility, say, than in prior years, and has that caused you to perhaps just be somewhat conservative? And then you talked about the leverage being above trend. Are any ability to sell assets, anything that you might be looking on the strategic side, and also any opportunities on the M&A side given some of the strategic moves by some wireless carriers out there? Thank you.
Jay Brown:
Sure. Good morning, Simon. On your first question around leasing activity, the tower guide for 2024 assumes a similar level of activity to what we've seen in the second-half of 2023, so underlying our view is, basically, a consistent level of activity as the surge, the initial activity from 5G came to an end during the first-half of the year. We saw the level of activity stabilize, and we think that carries into calendar year '24. I think we have good visibility around that. Much of the work, given the nature of the business, we go into the year with a significant portion of that revenue already contracted, and we have good visibility as to when we think it will actually come online. So, I would characterize our visibility from a reported results standpoint, pretty similar to what we've seen historically. And feel like that level of activity is sustainable over the long-term as the carriers continue to upgrade the sites that they're already on with 5G equipment and as well as densify the network using towers that they're not currently on. As I noted in my comments, we think that we will see and have seen a shift and a focus from the carriers as they start to use small cells to a greater degree to densify their network. So, our view is based on a pretty holistic view of the way the carriers are thinking about their networks as we wrap up 2023, and get into 2024, and feel good about the organic growth that we're showing in both segments there related to the wireless carriers. On the second question on the leverage trend, as Dan mentioned in his comments, obviously with some of the headwinds that we talked about in our comment, it's going to cause to leverage to tick up a bit. That's happened in the past, and we would expect, over time, that we'll see good growth in the business that will allow us to de-lever back down and get back at levels that -- or where our target would be. So, the headwinds will create some uplift around that leverage ratio. And then, we think, over time, we'll be able to bring it back down in line. On the last part of your question around ways to manage the business, and M&A, and other things, I don't think there's anything specific that I would comment on. But just generally the way we think about running our business, is there are three ways that we view we can create long-term shareholder value. The first way is to add additional revenue to the assets that we own. That organic growth comes at great incremental return. And the second way is we can invest in more assets that would extend -- we believe would extend the runway of growth into the future. And then, the third way is to lower the cost of capital. We think all three of those are ways of driving long-term shareholder value. And we are constantly working on all three of those. What's unique about the current environment that we're in is that, often times in periods of disruption, more opportunities arise. And I made reference to that in terms of the capital costs of our customers can create opportunities for us to invest capital that can drive returns over the long-term. That also happens sometimes around the way assets are priced. And so, us being really thoughtful about how we can create value on those three fronts. And we are always looking at those opportunities. And I would say, in periods of disruption, our experience has been that, often times, there are some pretty unique opportunities that arise. And so, we'll continue to work on all three, growing the revenues on the existing assets, looking for opportunities for new assets, and then trying to find ways to lower our cost of capital.
Simon Flannery:
Great, thanks a lot.
Jay Brown:
You bet.
Operator:
The next question is from Michael Rollins of Citi. Please go ahead.
Michael Rollins:
Thanks and good morning. I also want to send my best wishes to Dan as well. Two questions, if I could, today. The first one is, as you're just describing returns, curious if you can give us an update on how the returns for small cell, as the growth is now accelerating, how those returns are pacing versus your expectation, and if you're seeing any difference in pricing on a per-node basis relative to the current portfolio? And then just drilling down into the earlier question on assets, do you have a significant amount of non-core assets or non-core ground leases? And can you possibly unpack the size, if you have any of that, given the recent press reports?
Jay Brown:
Sure. On the first question, around returns of small cells, we continue to see really attractive returns in our small cell business. And the amount of co-location that we're seeing, both in 2023 and 2024, and the economics of those incremental adds well in excess of 20% is encouraging. As we have seen systems develop, we continue to be initial returns going to that second tenant, we get into the low double-digit returns. And as we get to the third tenant, we're high teens, low-20% from a systems standpoint. Given the quantity of nodes that I talked about in my comments, both that we're seeing in 2023 as well as when we go into '24, and half of those nodes being co-location, we're seeing the multi-tenant systems track those expected returns. And so, feel really good about where they will start going. As we think about pricing, we have always priced the business based -- focused on returns. So, there's not a -- unlike towers where there's more of a national pricing across assets, small cells is different. So, small cells is priced based on the required returns based on the cost to build systems. And so, in areas where the costs are higher, the pricing follows. And that has had some uplift in it as a result of some of the inflationary pressures that have been in the environment. And so, that does affect the pricing, and we're able to lift pricing associated with that in order to maintain and grow the returns associated with the system. And so, we've seen the business develop as we would have expected. On the second question around non-core assets and potential size there, I don't think we have a lot of non-core assets inside the portfolio of assets. But one of the things that I would say is that the ground leases, you specifically referenced ground leases. We have, over time, brought a significant portion of ground leases on balance sheet by acquiring the ground leases. We also extend ground leases for very long periods of time. We're now north of 30 years of duration in our ground lease portfolio. And so, we have the opportunity, obviously, to go out and push ground leases, in terms of duration, for over very long periods of time. And we may choose to do that off balance sheet or on balance sheet. So, I would put that in the category of that could be an opportunity for us to lower the cost of capital depending on how we think about it. In order to run the business efficiently, the key is do we have control both in terms of the cost of that activity and then do we have control in terms of certainty of being able to maintain the assets and add additional revenues? So the financing decision really just comes down to what's the lowest cost of capital and we're always looking for opportunities to try to figure out the way to achieve that lowest cost of capital across the asset.
Michael Rollins:
Thank you.
Operator:
The next question is from Nick Del Deo of MoffettNathanson. Please go ahead.
Nick Del Deo:
Hey, good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. First, to continue on the capital allocation theme, in the past you generally argued that the returns you see from small sales, I guess five or more generally, we're so far ahead of what you can get from repurchases that repurchases really weren't in your consideration set. I guess how would you describe that relationship today? Are repurchases starting to look more interesting versus fiber or other uses of capital?
Jay Brown:
Good morning, Nick. Obviously, the move downward in the stock price and the yield associated with it while we've maintained a long-term view that we'll return after we get through 2025 that we'll be able to return to growing organic growth in line with our targets. Obviously, that becomes a more attractive investment at lower prices. As I mentioned in my comments, what's also true is there's a growing, we believe growing demand and focus by our carrier customers for the assets around small cells. And so, it absolutely affects the way we think about the incremental projects that we take on because we're always thinking about things as what is the opportunity cost or the potential opportunity returns that we could pursue by choosing one path over another path. And our consistent approach has been over a long period of time to do that, to compare things like repurchasing shares or investing in assets. So, as the stock price has moved, it does suggest how we think about opportunities and it will continue to do so.
Nick Del Deo:
Okay. Maybe turning to the employee relocation plan that you closed last night, it seems to reflect a pretty meaningful philosophical change in how you manage the company, at least from an outsider's perspective. I guess, why do you think a more centralized approach is better now? Has something changed in terms of your ability to better manage the business in a more centralized way than you once were, or am I kind of overthinking it?
Jay Brown:
I don't think you're overthinking it. We are constantly looking at ways to run our business more efficiently. And so, as we have come off of the peak of 5G activity, one of the things that we looked at as we were evaluating what's the right sizing of the organization, one of the things that we thought was necessary was to reduce the number of employees in the business, which we did that in the July and completed that work over the last several months. The second part of it is, how can we run the business more efficiently in terms of our processes and business operations? And so the view that we took on that front is that by centralizing things, we can reduce long-term costs of operating our business and we can get to the place where we can deliver for our customers more quickly and more efficiently. So, improving the customer experience, which we believe will do both reducing our long-term costs of operating the assets, but also give us an opportunity to potentially increase the revenue that we can deliver for customers by delivering for them more quickly. I think that's just the way you should always be running the business, is looking for ways to reduce the costs, run it more efficiently. And as we've looked at the activity that we believe will occur for the business over the long-term, we believe this reformatted business will be the best way to run the business, both from a cost standpoint and then give us opportunity for additional revenues over time.
Nick Del Deo:
Okay. Just one quick follow-up on that, any risk of an operational hiccup given all the changes taking place, or do you feel like you have that pretty well buttoned down?
Jay Brown:
Well, I wouldn't say there's never, there is ever a place where there isn't the opportunity for a hiccup. So, we've got to be disciplined operators of the assets and run the business thoughtfully. And we intend to do that. I have a great deal of confidence in our team and our ability to do that. The restructuring plan that we announced in the press release yesterday affects about 25% of our employees. And so, I'm confident that the plans that we have in place to work through that, they'll do well. The 80% that are unaffected, I believe today are hard at work and doing what you would expect in terms of delivering on the business. So, it's something we've got to watch and certainly manage and we have a plan internally to do that.
Nick Del Deo:
Okay. Thank you, Jay.
Jay Brown:
You bet.
Operator:
The next question is from Jonathan Atkin of RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead.
Jonathan Atkin:
Thanks. A couple of questions, when you say no equity issuance, does that include not drawing on the ATM and then more broadly on the financial side, I wonder what your updated thinking would be about the pace of dividend growth beyond 2025 from your vantage point right now?
Jay Brown:
Yes, Jon, I'll take the first one on the ATM. Yes, it means that we're not going to be issuing equity even under the ATM. Beyond 2025, I would look at the business and say based on the characteristics that we see for organic revenue growth and our long-term forecast for where we think the carriers are going to invest to continue to build out 5G, which is going to take the better part of the decade we expect, we see organic growth in AFFO returning to that targeted level of 7% to 8%. And so, feel good about the underlying demand drivers of how we're going to get there. And then, as we get closer to that date, we can talk more specifically about what we think the growth rate will be in 2026. But the underlying demand drivers, and as we look at it today, look to be healthy and intact, and we think those are sustainable, and as we get through these headwinds over 2024 and 2025, that we'll get back to a targeted level of growth in our AFFO.
Jonathan Atkin:
And then lastly from my side, just on the core fiber business X small cells, what are the types of trends you're seeing from the demand, customer renewals, pricing and so forth?
Jay Brown:
Sure. Two big trends that are affecting that, as we've gone through the calendar year and moved past the churn events that we've been talking about. We've seen the net growth come back in line with where we expected to get, we still think we're going to exit this year at about 3%. You could see in our guide for next year that we're on pace to get, we believe we will be on pace to get to next year's level of growth by the time we exit this year. The two trends that we're seeing is both an uplift on the core leasing side. So, we're seeing more activity from both new logos and an opportunity to continue to sell to the logos that we're already selling to. We also see a reduction in churn. Our team has undertaken a number of really thoughtful activities over the last couple of years that are starting to bear fruit, and that results in a reduction in churn. And so both on the top as well as the reduction in churn is leading to that 3% growth that we see next year. The more macro drivers of that business are healthy as data demand, not only for wireless, which we've talked a lot about on this call, but also for connectivity on a wire line basis, those growth drivers continue to be healthy. The movement of enterprises towards moving data to the cloud and off-premises continues to create opportunities for that business. We think those trends are intact, especially for the customer base that we serve. Our fiber business primarily serves large enterprises. We have very little exposure to medium and small businesses, and we don't do anything direct-to-consumer. On the large enterprise side, we see those trends towards off-premises and movement to the cloud to be sustainable drivers that are going to drive growth for a long period of time. And we're continuing to be thoughtful about how can we make those revenue streams more sticky.
Jonathan Atkin:
Great. Thank you very much.
Operator:
The next question is from Ric Prentiss of Raymond James. Please go ahead.
Ric Prentiss:
Thanks. Good morning, everyone. Dan enjoyed getting to know you over these last seven years.
Dan Schlanger:
Yes, thanks, Ric. Me too.
Ric Prentiss:
I want to start on the dividend side. You all know I really like looking at cash more than the AFFO reported metric, but it looks like the midpoint of '24 AFFO, $3.005 billion and that amortization of prepaid rent, the non-cash item that you talk about, it was about $423 million. That kind of implies that a cash AFFO number would be more like ballpark $2.6 billion versus dividends might be like $2.7 billion. Am I thinking of that correctly? And what other ways are there to kind of bridge that, get to working capital or other ways to get to that kind of how you pay the cash dividend?
Dan Schlanger:
So Ric, I would say yes, you're thinking about that correctly. Looking at our AFFO, taking out the prepaid rent amortization to get to a cash level makes sense as a shorthand way to do so. And that number is going to be below our dividend at the midpoint when we look at 2024. And we believe, as Jay pointed out throughout his comments, is that given that we think that we're going to be returning out to growth in past 2025, that it made a lot of sense to keep the dividend where it is. And we can fund that dividend all sorts of different ways. We don't want to have a liquidity issue of trying to figure out where the cash comes from. What we have is what we'll do is we'll continue to pay out the dividend. And then, as the organic growth in the business continues to increase over the course of the next several years, we feel really comfortable with the trajectory of that dividend over time.
Ric Prentiss:
Okay. And a couple of times, I think Jay mentioned, maintaining the dividend in '24 obviously it's a board decision. But should we assume this intent is to maintain the dividend '25 as well? And to Dan's point, there's other ways to pay it if cash is short?
Jay Brown:
Yes, Ric, obviously, we're setting the dividend policy for 2024. So, I don't want to get ahead of ourselves and start talking about '25. But philosophically, the reason why we're referencing the low point is to help give you a view of this multi-year work through that we've got with the consolidation of Sprint and some of the headwinds that we've been facing. As you kind of referenced and walked through the math there of the gap, in essence what we're saying is we expect that gap to be smaller in 2025 than it is in 2024. So, historically, as we've looked at the business, what we've done is sized up the cash flow generation of the business and we've paid out to shareholders in the form of the dividend, the cash generated by the business in any given year. That's how we've set our dividend. As we got into this period of time, which we believe is an anomaly in the business, the consolidation of the carriers and work through the headwinds associated with more of the macroeconomic changes, what we tried to do was look through those specific events that we were seeing on the horizon and look out beyond those events and try to figure out where do we think the cash flow generation of the business would be as the business normalized. As we look through that, our view was it made sense to maintain the dividend in 2024. The gap will be the widest between that dividend payout and the generation of cash in the business in the first-half of 2024. And then, it will close as we go to the second-half of 2024 and then into '25 and get beyond that. And we believe we'll return to a growth period of time once we get past 2025. So, we're in essence looking through these movements in these events and try to set the dividend at a level that we could maintain in '24. The gap between the current level of dividend and the cash generation will be smaller in '25 and then we'll return to growth, we believe, in 2026.
Ric Prentiss:
That's clear. Okay, thanks. One other question on my side on the small cells, I think you mentioned there were 5,000 nodes decommissioned in mid-'23 from Sprint. Was that within second quarter or there's more of those to be decommissioned, sorry, in third quarter, I assume we're done with it. And the 14,000 nodes for in 2024, is that a gross or net number? Are they almost the same?
Jay Brown:
On the 5,000, there's a little bit of movement. Most of those have come out at this point, which is why you saw our total nodes and contracted nodes come down from 120,000 to 115,000. That's reflective of the churn. So, most of those have worked their way through. The number for 2024 when we talk about 14,000 gross and net are the same. So, we don't expect any meaningful churn in 2024 of small cell nodes. So, there's no offset there that you need to be made aware of.
Ric Prentiss:
Good. And the $10 million Sprint churn in the '24 guidance, is that basically enough? It's kind of a half year then of the $10 million reflective?
Jay Brown:
Yes, it basically is. Exactly, it's the rollover of this year's churn hitting 2024.
Ric Prentiss:
And that gets back to that first-half versus second-half kind of concept that's a contributing factor in the second-half being better then.
Dan Schlanger:
Yes.
Ric Prentiss:
Great, thanks so much. Dan, best wishes.
Dan Schlanger:
Thank you.
Operator:
The next question is from David Barden of Bank of America. Please go ahead.
David Barden:
Hey guys, thanks for taking my questions. Just a couple on the small cell side, so Jay or Dan, with a 40% step-up in the rate of no deployment happening at the time when you're kind of shrinking the organization, what has to happen? How does that happen to kind of make that step up because it is larger than we've kind of ever seen you guys do before? And then second question related is, should we assume that, that's kind of the new normal, both in terms of discretionary CapEx and in terms of kind of no deployments for the foreseeable future? Or is this more of an anomaly and kind of more like the 10,000 node, $1.2 billion discretionary cash CapEx is more the norm? Thanks.
Jay Brown:
Good morning, Dave. On your first question, the changes that we made in terms of reduction of staffing happened almost exclusively on the tower side. And what we were adjusting the internal costs related to were both in the services business on the tower side as well as on the tower operating side. And those were adjusted based on the volume of activity that we saw for tower leasing and the movement from those peaks of 5G down to the levels that we provided both -- we think we're going to deliver both in the second-half of '23 and then as we go into 2024. As we think about resources on the small cell side, we believe our team and the growth in both use of technology and refining some of the processes and making ourselves more successful at navigating through municipalities, which I talked about in some of my comments, I don't see a significant need for us to add additional resources to our fiber segment as we tackle this significant increase in the amount of nodes. Our team has been preparing for this. And one of the benefits of the long lead time that we have in that business is we can be really thoughtful about making sure we plan the work and engage the work and as well as looking for ways to do it more efficiently. The team has done a really good job of that. So, the job shrinkage and the reduction of cost has really not come from that segment of the business. And I believe we're prepared to deliver the growth that we're talking about without material changes to the cost structure on the upward side. On your second question around the discretionary CapEx, it's hard to give you a really long-term forecast about that because we haven't paired that with what we think the demand is going to be in the amount of activity. At a given level of activity that's similar to what we're doing in 2024, I would say, yes, we would expect the CapEx to be in and around that level if that's the level of activity that we're operating with. We're continuing to see the business move and navigate towards a greater percentage of colocation nodes. Those returns, as I mentioned to an earlier question, have come in at levels that we would expect -- we expected them to come in at. So, we're seeing the multi-tenant model, multi-tenant systems deliver returns that were in line with expectations. And then, as we go out a long way, our view is generally that the carriers are going to need more small cells than what they're currently taking today as they densify the 5G network. And we believe that densification will continue as consumers use the network to an even greater degree. So the total addressable market and the need for small cells, we believe will have upward trends on it. And as those upward trends come, I think it creates the opportunity for us to put investment opportunities back through that rigorous process that I talked about in my comments around do these investments in those -- in particular markets that may have opportunity in them, do they make sense for us relative to other alternatives? And we'll just have to see how that unfolds to see whether it makes sense for us to pursue those or not.
David Barden:
Got it, thanks so much.
Jay Brown:
You bet.
Operator:
The next question is from Greg Williams with Cowen. Please go ahead.
Gregory Williams:
Great, thanks for taking my questions. Just echoing the comments for Dan, I wish you all the best, and thank you for the support. Just the first question is on the higher cost for '24. It looks like it's up $30 million to $60 million even after the $35 million cost savings. I'm just wondering if you can break out the piece parts there if it's ground lease escalations, et cetera. And then the second question is just on the comments around the small cell returns. You're saying it's just as good as towers on a multi-tenant system basis. So, is there any update to kind of lease-up rates in small cells as we think of that vis-a-vis towers? Thanks.
Dan Schlanger:
Yes. Thanks, Greg. Appreciate the comments. And then, I'll start with the first question on higher cost in 2024. You hit on a bunch of them. So, the major cost increases that we experienced, we do have ground leases under our towers as a single large line item that we have in our P&L on the expense side. And those ground leases increase at about 3% per year in cost. That has to be baked in. Secondly, we, like every other company, is faced with -- are faced with increasing cost for labor for people who work here, people we're hiring because the cost of people is going up with inflation. And then, lastly, we had some onetime savings in the back half of 2023 that won't occur going into 2024, which show a little bit more of an increase also. When you add those things up, you get to the type of cost increases you were just referencing.
Jay Brown:
Greg, on your second question around the returns, small cells have been historically continue to be, in our view, would be -- will continue to be initially and with the first colocated tenant and the second colocated tenant on a particular system actually better than what we've seen historically from towers. When we put capital into the ground for small cells, we are at about double the initial yield on invested capital to what we are with towers. Whether those towers were acquired historically or built, our initial returns are more than double what a tower is. When we get to the second tenant on a small cell system, we're in the low double-digit range. Generally, with towers in order to get to those kind of yields, as you can see in the supplement, we're well over two tenants in order to get to low double-digit yields on invested capital. And then, when we get to a third tenant on a system, we're high teens, low 20% yields. You could see some of that in the disclosure that we gave last quarter around some markets that we've been in for a long period of time and have a significant number of multi-tenant systems. In some places where we've got the three tenants, we get the very attractive returns that would exceed those of even towers historically. So we're at the early stages of colocation. So, it's -- we're not multi-tenant across the entire system yet, but we do believe over time, like towers, over 25 years of adding tenants, we'll continue to see growth in those returns and yields. And I believe over time, this business on the small cell side will continue to trend towards what we've seen in towers and will create a significant amount of shareholder value over time as we've been able to build assets in the best markets in the United States, those with dense populations and a lot of data demand. And believe as the carriers densify the network, the assets that we have are going to result in a lot of colocation over many years. And that will consistently drive increases in yields and growth in value creation for equity holders.
Gregory Williams:
Great, thank you.
Operator:
Next question is from Matt Niknam of Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.
Matthew Niknam:
Hey guys, thanks for taking the questions. Just two quick ones, first, on AFFO per share growth, maybe if you can help us think through the moving parts driving the expectation for second-half AFFO per share in '24 to be better than the first-half. Is it improved leasing? Is there anything on the cost side in terms of ramp-up of savings to be cognizant of? And then secondly, on services, if you could just help us think through the progression from the, call it, 25-ish percent range in the third quarter to around the 50% exit rate by the end of next year. Is that linear? Is that more of a stair step higher? Just how to think about the path there? Thanks.
Dan Schlanger:
Yes. Matt, on the first question on what's driving second-half, it's really a combination of just normal kind of seasonality in our business, which we didn't see in 2023 and called out in 2023. It's returned more to how that works in 2024, and our business typically works in the second-half of the year a bit better than the first. In addition to some of the churn events that Ric was mentioning, we kind of hit the first-half of the year not the second. And so, we think that all of that added up would lead to the low point in AFFO being in the first-half of 2024.
Jay Brown:
Matt, on your second question, I'm assuming you're referring to the margins in the business. Is that the question that you're asking, the extraction of the margins?
Matthew Niknam:
Right, yes.
Jay Brown:
Yes, okay. The current margins, and there will some bleed over this into the beginning of 2024, and around the 25% range, has to do with our exit of the construction services, those would be project management services that, historically, we performed to help our customers install on the assets that we have. Those, the margins in that business are much lower than the margins that we have on a go-forward basis, the services that we'll perform on the pre-installation, pre-construction for our customers. So, what you're really seeing in the mix change over the course of the year as the legacy business ramps down and goes away, and the business that we will continue to perform on a long-going -- for the foreseeable future, the margins on that business are better. So, you're seeing that in the guide. And by the time we get to the second-half of next year, virtually all of those legacy services that will no longer be performing will have been moved out of the results.
Matthew Niknam:
That's great. Thank you both.
Jay Brown:
You bet, Matt. Thanks.
Dan Schlanger:
Thanks.
Jay Brown:
Operator, and we can take one more question.
Operator:
Okay. The final question is from Brandon Nispel of KeyBanc Capital Markets. Please go ahead.
Brandon Nispel:
Great, thank you for taking the question. Dan, thanks a lot for all your help over the last several years, and best of luck. Hoping you guys could unpack the tower leasing both through 3Q and '24. You've always talked about the contracted nature of this business. But on the year-over-year basis, leasing went down roughly 40%. So, I was hoping you could unpack the drivers from like a sequential or year-over-year standpoint? And then talk about your first-half or second-half expectations for tower leasing in '24? And secondly, I was hoping you could unpack the churn that you've guided to, the $155 million just from a tower, fiber, and small cell side, and then the one-off churns from the remaining Sprint Cancellations? Thanks.
Jay Brown:
Sure, I'll take the first question, and Dan can walk through the numbers on the second question. Brandon, as we came to our tower leasing guide for '24, we looked at the activity that we were seeing from the customers. And embedded in that activity, about 85% of what's in the guide for 2024, at this point, is contracted. So, there is some amount of rollover of activity that we'll see in this calendar year, where the tenant goes on the tower this year and then shows up for a full 12 months in calendar year '24. There is, by definition, about 15% that we still got to go get in calendar year '24 that we don't have line of sight to. And our view has been, as we came off of the peak of 5G, that there is absolutely going to be a needed addition to tower side of our carriers investing to add additional equipment to build out 5G. We're not done with 5G, and they're not done with macro sites. So, that activity will continue. And based on the conversations that we've had with them, the activity that we've seen, and the work that we see ahead, still believe that there is good activity on the macro tower side. Feel good about where the guidance is. And feel good about where we'll be, not only in '24, but in the years beyond as the towers are still the most efficient way to deploy network capacity. And so, to the extent that macro tower sites can solve the need, the carriers, we believe, will continue to prioritize those assets, and in the portfolio. And we'll continue to see good growth in towers for a long period of time. So, we've reset our expectations from where we were at the peak of 5G, but feel good about where we are from this point forward.
Dan Schlanger:
Yes, and the second question, on the $155 million of churn. On the towers side, it's going to be very similar churn in '24 to what we think we'll see in '23, which is on the low end of our 1% to 2%, on the $30 million range of churn on tower. On small cells, similarly, very similar to '23, we'll see about 1% of our small cells, so without -- as long as you take out the Sprint Cancellations. And fiber solutions, as Jay mentioned, we believe the churn is coming down from closer to the 10% in '23, to around 9% in '24, so in the neighborhood of $115 million, when you add all those up, maybe $120 million. So, when you add all those up you get to about $155 million total of churn.
Brandon Nispel:
Great, thank you for taking the questions.
Jay Brown:
You bet. Well, thanks, everyone, for joining the call this morning. Appreciate the continued support. And we look forward to seeing and talking with you soon. And just want to thank our team, broadly, for all the work that they have done to deliver the results for '23 so far. Got a good quarter ahead for us to finish out the year, and then excited about the opportunity to continue to grow the business as we get into 2024, and beyond. Thanks for joining, and we'll talk soon.
Operator:
The conference is now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Good morning and welcome to the Crown Castle Second Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. All participants will be in listen-only mode. [Operator Instructions] After today’s presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. [Operator Instructions] Please note, this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Kris Hinson, Vice President of Corporate Finance and Treasurer. Please go ahead.
Kris Hinson:
Thank you, Kate, and good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us today as we discuss our second quarter 2023 results. I am Kris Hinson and I recently joined Crown Castle as the Vice President of Corporate Finance and Treasurer. With me on the call this morning are Jay Brown, Crown Castle’s Chief Executive Officer; and Dan Schlanger, Crown Castle’s Chief Financial Officer. To aid the discussion, we have posted supplemental materials in the Investors section of our website at crowncastle.com that will be referenced throughout the call this morning. This conference call will contain forward-looking statements, which are subject to certain risks, uncertainties and assumptions and the actual results may vary materially from those expected. Information about potential factors which could affect our results is available in the press release and the Risk Factors sections of the company’s SEC filings. Our statements are made as of today, July 20, 2023, and we assume no obligation to update any forward-looking statements. In addition, today’s call includes discussions of certain non-GAAP financial measures. Tables reconciling these non-GAAP financial measures are available in the supplemental information package in the Investors section of the company’s website at crowncastle.com. With that, let me turn the call over to Jay.
Jay Brown:
Thanks, Kris, and good morning everyone. Thanks for joining us. Before I begin, I’d like to welcome Kris. We’re very excited to have him here on the Crown Castle team. Turning to our earnings release, I wanted to provide some context for the wireless industry environment that led us to reduce our outlook for 2023, and Dan is going to speak to the specifics of the changes. Across each U.S. wireless generation, the deployment of new spectrum, followed by cell site densification has increased network capacity and enabled exponential mobile data demand growth. For us this has played out with an initial surge in tower activity to build out the latest generation network, followed by a consistent level of activity over a long period of time to support our customers. As a part of the most recent upgrade to 5G, the U.S. wireless carriers spent more than $100 billion to acquire spectrum from 2020 to 2022. Our customers move quickly to deploy their newly acquired spectrum driving record tower level activity and dividend per share growth of almost 11% per year over that same period. I believe this initial surge in tower activity has ended. In the second quarter, we saw tower activity levels slowed significantly. As a result, we are decreasing our 2023 outlook primarily as a result of lower tower services margin. Importantly, our tower organic revenue growth outlook remains at 5% despite this lower level of activity. The resilience of our tower revenues is the result of our decision to pursue holistic long-term agreements with each of our major customers. In each of these agreements, our strategy has been to maximize the economic value while simultaneously providing visibility and stability and our long-term cash flows. To illustrate this point, Slide 4 shows our organic tower revenue growth since 2013. Over this period, we’ve consistently worked with our customers to provide them with enhanced flexibility to move quickly and deploying their networks while increasing our level of contracted activity. Due to our focus on reducing risk and generating resilient organic growth, we have contracted 75% of our expected annual tower organic growth of 5% through 2027, while also delivering record tower growth in 2021 and 2022 during the initial phases of 5G rollout. In addition to the benefits we’ve captured from our long-term customer agreements, we’ve complemented our portfolio of towers with fiber and small cells, making us uniquely positioned to capitalize on the long-term growth and data demand regardless of how carriers deploy spectrum and densify their networks. Our current backlog of 60,000 small cells provides a line of sight to doubling our on-air nodes over the next several years, which we expect will drive double digits small cell revenue growth beginning in 2024. To provide additional visibility on how our fiber solutions and small cell businesses are progressing, we have updated our analysis across the five markets we have previously highlighted since 2021 as highlighted on Slide 10. We continue to generate solid returns from the benefits of co-locating additional customers on our existing fiber assets, offsetting the churn related to the legacy Sprint rationalization. Phoenix, which was not impacted by Sprint churn, is a good illustration of what we can achieve with our fiber strategy as we add nodes to existing fiber. There we have seen our yield expand from 9% a year ago to over 11% today as we roughly doubled our nodes on-air from 1,400 to 2,800 nodes. Los Angeles and Philadelphia also illustrate the benefit of our shared infrastructure model. Here with a combination of small cells and enterprise fiber, we see yields of 8% to 9% with the potential to grow yields as we have done in Phoenix and Orlando as we add small cells. Overall, I’m encouraged by these results, particularly as we accelerate small cell deployments. With 60,000 nodes in our backlog, the majority of which are co-location nodes, we have line of sight to attractive incremental returns and double digit small cell revenue growth. Zooming back out to the consolidated level, we are consistently looking to deliver the highest risk adjusted returns for our shareholders. Our strategy has delivered growth and driven improvements on both the risk and the return side of the equation. Several years ago, it became clear to us that small cells would become an important component of the wireless carrier network densification required to support data growth. We saw an acceleration in small cells towards the back half of the 4G era as the vast majority of the 60,000 nodes we have on air today are 4G nodes that were deployed because towers alone could not support the continued rise in mobile traffic. Now as we’ve passed the initial 5G surge in tower activity, we are seeing our customers accelerate the selection and identification of new small cell locations to densify portions of their networks that have experienced the most traffic. The results of our early move into establishing a leading portfolio is reflected in our double digit, small cell organic revenue growth in 2024, and provides a platform for continued growth throughout the 5G era. With our diversified asset base, we have positioned ourselves to benefit from carrier activity on towers and small cells. Additionally, we have reduced our risk by increasing the resiliency of our business through our long-term customer agreements and improving the strength of our balance sheet. As a result of these actions, despite a significant reduction in tower activity in the back half of 2023, we continue to expect 5% organic tower revenue growth, 10,000 small cell node deployments, and 3% fiber solutions growth by the end of this year. This resilient underlying growth across our business underpins our expectation of returning to our long-term annual dividend per share growth target of 7% to 8% beyond 2025. And with that, I will turn the call over to Dan.
Dan Schlanger:
Thanks, Jay. And good morning everyone. I wanted to take a moment to frame the changes to our 2023 outlook before getting into the specifics of our results. Over the last quarter both tower industry specific and macroeconomic factors have negatively impacted our business. On the industry specific side, the end of the initial surge and activity related to the early stage of the 5G investment cycle has resulted in a decline in tower activity of more than 50%, causing us to reduce our outlook for services gross margin by $90 million. At the same time, interest rates continued to rise as a result of the macroeconomic conditions in the U.S. resulting in $15 million of additional interest expense. Combined, these headwinds have reduced our outlook by 105 million. While this is a sizeable change, our strategy to pursue the highest risk adjusted return, that Jay just discussed, has limited the impact. Of course, we’re not standing still in the face of these forces. We are focusing on managing our business and cost structure to match the lower activity levels, removing significant cash costs, so the net impact to our AFFO is only $40 million. We encourage that our focus on the resiliency of our cash flows and managing costs allows us to withstand this reduction in tower activity with minimal impact to our bottom line. Turning to second quarter results on Page 5 of the earnings materials growth in site rental revenue is highlighted by nearly 6% tower organic growth. On a consolidated basis, we generated 12% organic growth or 4% when adjusted for the impact of the Sprint Cancellations. We also had outsized growth of 14% in AFFO and 10% in adjusted EBITDA in part due to the Sprint Cancellations. As expected, most of the impact of the Sprint Cancellations occurred in the second quarter, including a net contribution to site rental billings of a $100 million, because of Sprint Cancellations of a number of moving parts in our second quarter and full year results we’ve inserted a slide into the appendix of our earnings materials detailing their impact in 2023 and our expectations for those cancellations through 2025. Turning to our full year outlook on Page 6, our outlook for site rental revenues remains unchanged. The decrease to adjusted EBITDA and AFFO is primarily driven by a lower contribution from services, partially offset by lower expenses leading to a $50 million decrease to adjusted EBITDA and a $40 million decrease AFFO. On Page 7 tower organic growth remains at 5% for the year, despite a slight reduction in tower core leasing, which is partially offset by a slight reduction in tower churn. Additionally, we lowered our Sprint Cancellation related small cell non-renewals by $5 million due to timing, leaving our consolidated organic growth unchanged at approximately 7%. Turning to Page 8, as I previously mentioned, the lower contribution from services totals $90 million and our outlook for interest expenses increased $15 million. More than offsetting the increased interest expense is $10 million of higher expected interest income and $15 million of lower sustaining capital expenditures. Our discretionary CapEx outlook remained unchanged with growth CapEx of $1.4 billion to $1.5 billion or approximately $1 billion net of expected prepaid rent. Our balance sheet is well positioned to continue to support investments that we believe will contribute to long-term growth. Consistent with our strategy to limit risk in our business we’ve taken steps to minimize our exposure to floating rate debt, including twice issuing fixed rate bonds this year totaling $2.4 billion at a weighted average rate of 5%. We exited the second quarter with 4.6 times net debt to adjust EBITDA more than $6 billion of available liquidity and only 7% of our total debt maturing through 2024. Since achieving an investment-grade rating in 2025, we have taken various steps to derisk our balance sheet, including increasing our weighted average maturity from five years to eight years, decreasing our floating debt exposure from 32% to 9% and reducing the amount of our secured debt, which provides access to that market in the future if it is attractive. To wrap up, we believe we are very well positioned to generate attractive risk-adjusted returns going forward. The strategy we have pursued over the last decade has positioned us to benefit from the carrier’s network augmentation and densification regardless of whether that activity is focused on towers or small cells. Additionally, we have structured our customer agreements to generate organic growth that are resilient through deployment cycles. At the same time, we have limited the risk in our business by focusing on the U.S. and maintaining a solid balance sheet that allows for continued investment and future growth. As a result, we believe we are positioned to return to our long-term annual dividend per share growth target of 7% to 8% beyond 2025 as we get past the remaining large Sprint cancellations. And with that, Kate, I’d like to open the call to questions.
Operator:
We will now begin the question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] The first question is from David Barden of Bank of America.
Alex Waters:
Hi, good morning, everyone. Thanks for taking my question. It’s Alex Waters on for Dave. Maybe just first off here, just hoping we could get a little bit more clarity on the structure of the MLAs and the line of sight you have within a year. Just curious on like the certain characteristics that are in the agreements that would allow to shift in 2023? And then secondly, just on the new leasing guide for the fiber segment, I just wanted to walk through kind of the line of sight you have there for the remainder of the year, just given that there’s a pretty good ramp here in the second half. Thanks.
Jay Brown:
You bet. Good morning, Alex. Thanks for the question. On your first question around the MLAs, this has been something that we’ve done over a long period of time. We did it during the 4G cycle and have continued to do it as we’ve entered into the 5G cycle. There’s benefits to us because it gives us line of sight and visibility into the cash flows and the contracted growth that Dan and I both spoke about. There’s also a benefit to our customers of those MLAs. They are better able to predict the cost of network deployment, and it eases the amount of interaction on a site-by-site basis between our companies. So there’s value there. I think the economic value is clear from the comments that we laid out this morning. And then there’s also the operating benefits of those MLAs. And I think they benefit both parties. As to the specifics of those contracts, we don’t disclose customer-by-customer agreements or the specifics. So I’ll stop with just sort of a high-level view of why we do it and the benefits to both of us. On your second question around new leasing in the fiber business, this is the way we expected the year to play out. Obviously, we had a difficult year-over-year comp in the first quarter, and then we expected a rebound in the second quarter, which we saw. And we expect the second half of the year to be better than the first half of the year. And by the time we exit 2023, we think we’ll be back at that 3% growth on a year-over-year basis as we go into 2024. And what we’re seeing in the market in terms of activity, backlog, the conversations we’re having with customers, et cetera, would suggest that’s the pace that we’re on.
Alex Waters:
Thanks Jay.
Operator:
The next question is from Greg Williams of TD Cowen. Please go ahead.
Greg Williams:
Great, thanks for taking my questions. You’re clearly noting a slowdown in the second quarter tower activity. Just curious, in your conversations with carriers, when do you anticipate that activity to maybe inflect up again? How prolonged do you think this slowdown is, given there’s a lot of spectrum still on the sidelines? Second question is just on your network services, which also came in like naturally. Is the $124 million that you posted in the second quarter sort of a good cadence? Or is there further declines from here? Thanks.
Jay Brown:
Sure. On your first question around the slowdown in activity, I think history serves really helpful lessons, both in terms of what we’ve seen in 4G as well as what we saw in 2G and 3G. On Page 4 of the presentation, you can see historically, basically through the period of time with 4G, we had that initial surge of activity where our leasing results were kind of around 4% – 5%. And then it did drop off a bit. But that initial surge didn’t mean the end of activity or the end of growth. We saw really good, consistent growth throughout that entire 4G cycle of deploying the network. So I don’t know if, when we’ll see a pickup in activity but our view of the business is that we will see consistent growth over a long period of time. And obviously, we have the contracted benefit of that. But I believe those contracts as much as they represent stability and resilience in our cash flow stream, what they also represent is a view by our customers who have needed continued investment that they will do around towers and particularly our towers over a long period of time. So as I look out, I think we’re through the initial surge of 5G and we’ve benefited well from that. And then as we get into the – as we get past this initial surge and into activity beyond this, I think we’re going to continue to see good consistent growth as the demand for towers continues to drive over a long period of time. On the services business, that business is as you can go back and look at our results over a long period of time, that’s just going to track with whatever the activity is on tower sites. So as we see a move downward in terms of activity and you’ll see that reflected in the outlook that we gave for the second half of the year for services, the future periods of time and the activity that we see around towers will drive what that services outcome is. So over a long period of time, I’m not – I can’t really give you guidance as to how to think about your model, but it’s going to track we would expect largely in line with the activity – tower leasing activity that we see in the business.
Dan Schlanger:
And just to put that into 2023 context, Greg, because we saw the slowdown in activity happened in the second quarter, we would expect the second half of the year to be less on the services side than the first half of the year because of the activity levels and what Jay was saying. So the $124 million that you’re talking about of services revenue in Q2 will likely come down over the course of the year, but that’s what’s reflected in our outlook and why we brought down our service gross margin outlook by $90 million. So that’s all baked into that outlook.
Greg Williams:
Got it. That’s helpful. Thank you.
Operator:
The next question is from Ric Prentiss of Raymond James. Please go ahead. Hello Ric, is your line muted?
Ric Prentiss:
Yes. Sorry about that. Can you hear me?
Jay Brown:
We can. Good morning, Ric.
Ric Prentiss:
Yes. Good morning, guys. Yes. Hey, I want to follow along the lines on the services business first. Obviously a big change from the prior guidance a $90 million change on services business. Was it really related to one carrier or more so than the whole group? Just trying to gauge what really caused a pretty big change on the services business although it’s a low multiple business in our opinion.
Jay Brown:
We saw the activity change across multiple carriers during the quarter.
Ric Prentiss:
Okay. And the margins, I assume it’s moving from kind of planning to deployment, so the cost side probably reflects some further pressure maybe on the services business as well.
Jay Brown:
Yes. I think if you go back and look at our historical results, there’s obviously a portion of costs that are fixed in that business, but there’s also a lot of marginal costs in that business that, that we have been able to move up and down commensurate with that activity. Dan spoke to that briefly in his comments, and we expect to be able to do the same here where we’ll adjust the cost structure and manage the cost structure appropriately for the level of activity and in some movements in the margin as the types of services that we perform change from whether it’s pre-construction or construction work that we’re doing for customers. So there’s some movement in those margins, but we would expect most of the costs associated to come back down and margins to stay in and around what you’ve seen historically. But I would not try to put a point in time on a particular quarter. I would look at it more broadly over kind of what you’ve seen us do over multi-years and it’s likely to look like that in the future.
Ric Prentiss:
Yes. Okay. Last one for me might be a bit wonky on the supplement. There’s a chart in there that talks about consolidated annualized rental cash payments at time of renewal. And it shows a big chunk for T-Mobile coming up in 2025. It shows a very large chunk for AT&T here in 2023. Is that suggesting that there’s an AT&T renewal coming up this year? And then also on the all other line just want to make sure I understanding how that plays out over time because that remains to be a pretty high number every year out there. Just trying to think of how I should be thinking about that.
Jay Brown:
So these contracts have and depending on which carrier, we’re looking at will have various in essence expiry dates before they enter into their already contracted option dates. Typically, our MLA agreements will have multi-year, multi-term option periods, and those options are usually for 5 years to 10 years beyond the term that they’re in currently. And we’ve already contracted what the percentage growth in those future periods is as well. And so as they come up for their natural renewal, those leases are generally extended onto their next term. So we would expect that portion of the supplement to constantly be changing as leases come up for renewal roll into their next period and then we’re into that, that, that next term. That’s the normal way that the business operates and we’re not seeing anything that would suggest that would change. So from a modeling standpoint, as you think about our business, we’ve talked about churn rates on the tower side outside of the Sprint rationalization in kind of that 1% to 2% range. We would expect that to continue. As for the all other that relates to customers other than the specifically named customers and we haven’t seen any change in that business and would expect we’ll continue to see normalized renewals and those time periods of remaining term, we’ll just move around as we are in various stages of the terms.
Jay Brown:
I’ll just add a couple things there, Ric. One, you pointed out the one on T-mobile is being a big number in 2025, that is the already predisposed sprint cancellation that’s going to happen on the tower side, but that chart is for all of our businesses together. So a lot of the all other is outside of the wireless as well.
Ric Prentiss:
Outside of wireless, can you give us some examples of who the bigger – so that would include the fiber type stuff, I guess?
Dan Schlanger:
Right. If the – so we have fiber – obviously, we have fiber contracts that roll off over time. That’s part of what we already disclosed. As Jay pointed out, there’s no difference in the fiber churn overall, we still think that’s in the high single digits range, which has been our experience for a long time. But there are always going to be contracts that roll off. It doesn’t mean that the revenue goes away. We contract a lot of those businesses too. Generally speaking, the average term of the fiber businesses in the neighborhood of five years and you would always – so you would always see a pretty consistent level of non-renewals in any given year.
Ric Prentiss:
Right, right. And a big number for AT&T in 2023 is just when it’s expiry date for the normal course and that moves into option period would be the way to interpret that.
Jay Brown:
Yes. And that’s a very normal thing to happen for the customers over time. So I – we’ve seen that over a lot of years and what you’re seeing in the disclosure, whether it’s their initial period and some of those leases, frankly, are not even their initial period, they’re already into their option terms and then they’re renewing, we would expect those options will renew into a new term, a new option period. And then the term of that will then be reflected in that supplement.
Ric Prentiss:
Right. All right. Thanks so much. Stay well.
Operator:
The next question is from Batya Levi of UBS. Please go ahead.
Batya Levi:
Thanks a lot. Just to follow-up on that payment schedule at renewal, is the decline that we’re seeing in the second half related to a payment that’s pushed out to 2026 or can you generally talk about what drove the increase in 2026 this time round versus the last schedule? And also just again to follow-up on the macro lease guidancethere – can thereby slightly $10 million in the second half. Again, if you could – if you don’t mind, can we go over that – what drove that and maybe what gives you the confidence that it would say around 5% level going into next year? Thanks.
Jay Brown:
Batya, a little bit of a hard time following your first question. I’m really sorry, but could – either could you restate that? So I can try to answer the question you’re getting at?
Batya Levi:
Sure. So the schedule that you provide in terms of payment at renewal, it looks like the second half, the remainder for 2023 has come down versus the prior schedule. And when you look at the renewal a time of renewal for 2026, there’s an add back. So there is – is that related to potentially one payment that was expected to be received this year that’s pushed out three years out or what would drive that increase in 2026?
Jay Brown:
Yes. I think what I would point you to is there was nothing specific that moved from 2023 to 2026. This is just the normal course of our business, where we have lots of contracts that have lots of provisions in them and they move around. And when we’re talking about numbers of the size on the business, it’s just – this is the normal course of how our contracts flow through that schedule. I think the important parts that I would point to are obviously, I pointed to him earlier the T-Mobile in 2025, but also just as Ric had just pointed out, the all others is in line with what our fiber business typically does. What we would say from a non-renewal perspective is that what we see our customer activity being supports our view that the tower business we generally see 1% to 2% churn, small cell business generally 1% to 2% churn and in the fiber business in the high single digits. And nothing has changed from that perspective. So as we think about the long-term health of the business, this cash payment at time of renewal chart can move around just based on what the underlying contract say. But for a long period of time, I would just continue to bake in that 1% to 2% for towers and small cells in the 9% to 10% for fiber.
Batya Levi:
Okay. Maybe if I could just ask it more indirectly, was there any change in the MLA that you have with this?
Jay Brown:
We’re not going to speak to specific customers or specific contracts that we would do with customers. The question broadly around MLA though, we’ve not changed terms of our MLA. So what you’re seeing in that schedule is just – as Dan said, is just the normal activity of leases coming up to their natural end. And that could be in – that could be a small cell lease, it could be a tower lease, it could be a fiber lease and then pushing that out to it’s now new term. And so the numbers in those schedules are moving. The passage of time, obviously to your question about 2023 is also impactful, because we’re just a quarter further into the year. So some leases came up for their renewal during the second quarter and would’ve adjusted out of the 2023 column and into some future columns. So it’s going to constantly move.
Batya Levi:
Got it. Okay. Thank you.
Operator:
The next question is from Simon Flannery of Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.
Simon Flannery:
Great, thank you very much. Good morning. If I could just come back to the guidance change and the 50% reduction in activity. Verizon and T-Mobile had laid out early in the year and even before that they were going to be kind of winding down their 5G build with a front end loaded CapEx and activity in 2023. Is this over and above that, which presumably you are well aware of their plans from that? So is there something else that is going on that’s causing this pullback? And perhaps you could just revisit what percent of your sites have been upgraded to 5G at this point. Thank you.
Jay Brown:
Sure, Simon. It’s difficult to reconcile because we don’t speak to individual customers, which we’re going to continue to not do. It’s difficult to reconcile to the public comments of individual carrier is what we’re seeing. What I would tell you is, we expected there to be an initial surge in 5G, which at some point would come back down. And we would get to the point as we have in the past and past cycles where we see good growth over a long period of time. And I think what our results reflect is that we’re at that point where we’ve moved from that beyond that initial surge of activity and into a period of time, which we think will continue for a long period of time of good growth that we can count on. And our customer agreements, I think reflect that as well. So the customers are going to continue to spend inside of a – specifically inside of the year, obviously, we lowered our expectation for services. So the back half of 2023, we did see a change relative to what we previously expected. The first half of 2023 came in exactly where we thought it was going to, and we saw the change in activity during the quarter. And that’s what affected our second half of the year, the activity that we’ll see in the – we believe we’ll see in the third and the fourth quarter.
Simon Flannery:
And the tower count 5G.
Dan Schlanger:
It hasn’t moved much, Simon. It’s not going to move in the course of a quarter. And I don’t think we’re going to update that quarter to quarter. That was try to give people a sense for where we were overall in terms of the 5G deployment. But it really hasn’t moved that much from the last quarter when we gave the guidance.
Simon Flannery:
Great. And then just one quick follow-up on the dividend. I think in the past you’ve said that there’d be minimal dividend growth in the next two years. Is there any change to that with this new guidance?
Jay Brown:
We’re going to be on our normal course of giving guidance for the next year in October. And when we give that guidance for next year, we’ll also update where we are with the dividend as we have done in past year. So I think you’ll see us continue to follow that same historical pattern.
Simon Flannery:
Thank you.
Operator:
The next question is from Brett Feldman of Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.
Brett Feldman:
Thanks. I was hoping we could gain a little more insight into how you’re thinking about building the funnel of small cell nodes going forward. So we’ve moved through this surge period with the carriers, which was very focused on getting mid band to a decent chunk of their existing sites. I think one of the questions we get is, until we’ve reached a point where carriers have deployed mid band across all their sites and maybe even expanded the densification of that on macros a bit more, what would be the basis for going in and starting to do more on the small cell side? So maybe if you could just give us some insights into like what those conversations are like, what’s driving it, how you think about what could create more of an uplift around 5G small cell leasing? That would be great. Thank you.
Jay Brown:
Sure. Good morning, Brett. The driver for small cells is the constraint on the network that happens from a capacity standpoint. And as we see activity from consumers increase and where those concentrations of that increase occur, there’s a need to increase network capacity. Initially, whenever there’s a new generation of network deployed, they touch the macro sites as they’ve done over multiple cycles than in the history of the company. And they have done that with 5G. So they’ve gone out and covered a significant portion of the country, provided capacity and coverage through that initial overbuild. And that’s a very efficient and effective way to deploy spectrum. The places where they supplement with small cells are places where that capacity that’s been created by overlaying 5G on towers has been consumed quickly. So underlying all of the conversations that we’re having around network capacity and densification is the consumer demand and data growth from that consumer demand. And that traffic increase at the consumer level has continued to grow exponentially during this period of time. And so the pain points of that significant growth by the consumer and consumption of data usage is the places that drive the need for small cells. And as I think about what we’ve seen at kind of the market level, you can see that reflected in those – in our results as we’ve co-located nodes across fiber that we built for other carriers at previous periods of time. And then over time, as data growth increases, carriers come back to those same locations because of the density of the population, they need to densify the network in those same areas. And so they come back and lay additional small cells across that fiber asset that we own. And I think you’ll continue to see that that play out. So if we’re in a period of time, specifically to your question about spectrum bands, if we’re in a period of time where the carriers have new spectrum or they haven’t deployed spectrum in a particular market, our expectation would be that the first place that they’ll go and deploy that spectrum would be across the macro sites that they’re already on. And then as that spectrum bands starts to begin to be used, then the pain points will be created around network capacity, and they’ll solve that problem by using small cells in those areas of densification where the growth in data traffic drives the need for additional capacity. And I think that’s what we’re seeing. That’s consistent with our conversations, the contractual arrangements that we have with the customers and the activity that we expect, both in terms of the growth we’re talking about for 2023 and then moving to double-digit revenue growth in 2024 for small cells.
Brett Feldman:
Got it. And just a quick follow-up. It may be too soon for you to have any insight here, but are you seeing any evidence that the continued growth of fixed wireless is in any way shaping how or where carriers are deploying additional density in their networks?
Jay Brown:
I think it is having some impact. And we talked about this a little bit on our last quarter call. Fixed wireless is a good example of a 5G use case. It’s driven nice margins for our carrier customers. It is – so it’s good to see the revenue growth there and the returns from – associated from the adoption of that product mix. And I think we believe we will see other uses for 5G beyond fixed wireless, but it does illustrate the pain points and the using up of capacity. And we’ve certainly seen areas in the country where fixed wireless has been deployed that – I don’t want to say, which is first between the chicken and the egg, but the point is those are places where there have been increases in activity on the 5G networks. And they correlate with locations that we’ve also seen increases in small cell nodes and investment along those lines.
Brett Feldman:
Great. Thank you.
Jay Brown:
You bet.
Operator:
The next question is from Michael Rollins of Citi Investment Research. Please go ahead.
Michael Rollins:
Thanks, and good morning. Just a few follow-ups if I could. First, as you think about maybe the reasoning for the slower activity beyond just getting through the initial 5G surge, are you hearing from your customers that the mid-band spectrum they’re deploying is getting better propagation so they just didn’t need as much as maybe they initially thought in this first round of 5G capacity deployments? And I have a couple of others that I could ask afterwards if I could, please.
Jay Brown:
Sure. I’ll take the first one, and then you can ask your others. They’re not always specific with us as to the reasoning. But I probably wouldn’t go quite as far as you did in terms of trying to get to causation there. I think it’s the natural thing that we have expected would happen. We saw it happen with 4G. And we expected this day to come where they had overlaid a significant portion of their network and touched the sites, and then the surge would pass. So, I think we’re just at the stage where we’ve moved from that initial surge, and now we’re at a point where we would expect to see continued growth over a very long period of time. So it feels like we’ve seen this movie before, and we’re just moving to the next chapter of deploying a wireless network. And we’re excited about continuing to deliver for the customers and what’s going to be needed over a long period of time. And we look at the underlying driver of the need for the carriers to continue to do that. The consumer demand for wireless data is healthy and growing. And so it portends that, that investment will continue to come.
Michael Rollins:
And then second, you’ve held on to a larger services business than some of your peers. And does the recent variability of performance or as we’re getting into these next phases of the 5G cycle, does this lead you to reconsider whether the services business is strategically important to Crown or whether there’s opportunities to maximize value in someone else’s hands?
Jay Brown:
Mike, I think in any business that we’re in or any activity that we’re in, that’s always a question that we consider. What is the value of the business? What are the returns associated with that business? And is it going to ultimately drive shareholder returns, which, in our way of thinking is, is it helpful to us being able to grow the dividend over a long period of time. So, we’re asking those kinds of questions across the entire business. Obviously, the services business has been profitable for us and has been very profitable for us during the initial surge. We would not expect to see quite that level of profitability come out of the services division at lower levels of activity. And so we’ll just have to evaluate as we do with everything in our business, what do we believe the forward look is on the activity and then make a good business decision around what makes sense from the products and services that we offer.
Michael Rollins:
And then just lastly, and thanks for taking all these questions. On the cost side, so you announced cost cuts for the second half of the year. Does that provide a follow-on benefit into the first half of 2024? And can you just unpack some of the sources of cost savings that the company has been able to identify?
Jay Brown:
Yes. We spoke to some of this earlier, Mike, on the question around services and it relates directly to that. There’s a significant portion of variable costs in the services business. So as the revenues decline associated with that, we’re going to see costs come out associated with that, which has a pretty meaningful impact to where we expect costs in the business to go for the balance of the year. We also made mention of SG&A, we’ll adjust there as we have done in the past through periods of time when the activity rises and falls. And so I don’t know that there’s anything in particular that I would point to, but just making good business decisions as we adjust for the level of activity that we see in the business. And then being thoughtful about how we’re able to continue to deliver for customers based on the activity that we’re seeing in the business.
Michael Rollins:
And sorry, does this – sorry I missed, so does this extrapolate into the first half of 2024 as an expense benefit as well?
Jay Brown:
The cost structure in 2024 will reflect whatever activity level we expect, and we’ll update our guidance for 2024 when we get to October. So there are components obviously of things that we do this year that roll over. But the cost structure in 2024, I can’t really answer that question without answering a revenue question. And we’ll take the extra three months and give you guidance in October on what we think 2024 cost structure is going to look like.
Michael Rollins:
Thanks very much.
Operator:
The next question is from Phil Cusick of JPMorgan. Please go ahead.
Phil Cusick:
Hi, guys. Thanks. Just following up on a couple things. You talked about looking at history carriers would move to densification after deployment. And you’ve talked about that in small cells. What do you see in towers? Is there any sign of that?
Jay Brown:
Sure. They’re using towers to densify and there will continue to be lease up associated with that. So some portion of the contracted revenue growth that we were speaking to relates to sites that they’re not on today that they’ll be adding equipment to, and then portions of it are amendments to existing sites where they’ll add more equipment to sites they’re already on.
Phil Cusick:
And are you seeing any acceleration in that discussion?
Jay Brown:
Well, I think broadly what I would say is as we’ve mentioned, the surge of activity initially is we’re coming off of those levels. But we’re seeing good growth over a long period of time that we expect would continue. From this point forward, given where we are in the cycle, certainly there will be densification to the extent that they can solve network capacity constraints with macro sites. That’s the most efficient and effective way to deploy capital to create additional capacity in the network if there is a macro site that can solve the problem. So some portion of the growth that we’ll see will be the investment of the capital around macro sites. And then if there is not macro sites that can solve the challenge of the densification, then we would expect to see that activity come towards small cells. So we’ve seen it. Conversations are consistent with that. Our contractual arrangements are consistent with that, and I think we’ll see that play out over the next several years.
Phil Cusick:
Okay. And then second, without an acceleration in the business, it looks like your 2025 leverage is going to be more like mid five times than the lower we are now. How should we think about your comfort with that and agencies as we get closer to it? Thank you.
Dan Schlanger:
Yes. As we’ve talked about, our target leverage that we think is appropriate for the business at this point is around five times. We’ve also said that it’s going to fluctuate up and down. You saw this quarter is at 4.6, a lot of that has to do with Sprint cancellations, but it has been below five for the last several quarters. There will be times where we invest in front of getting revenue and cash flows where our debt to EBITDA will go up because we have the capital out before we get the cash flow. But over time, we would expect that to reverse and therefore the organic growth in our business would result in a lower leverage ratio going forward. So those fluctuations are natural. I think, specifically where would we get uncomfortable and say, okay, that’s too high. I’m not exactly sure what that would be. But I think it really depends a lot like, which Jay was talking about [indiscernible], it really depends on what the forward look of what that growth looks like. And if we’re at five and a half times and we see a lot of EBITDA coming in the next year, and we can bring it down really quickly, I think we would be fine. I think the agencies would be fine with that. We’ve had that in the past. But if we think there’s going to be continued investment and we need to go fund that investment, we would even it’s not our preference, but even if that requires equity because the returns in the investments that we’re making, we believe exceed our cost of capital inclusive of any equity cost of that capital. And as long as that’s the case, our job is to try to invest in projects that generate returns over and above our cost of capital. And as long as we believe we’re doing that we would, but hard to speak to exactly what happens in 2025 without understanding what the next several years are going to look like and how quickly that leverage would move up or down from there.
Phil Cusick:
That helps. Thanks, Dan.
Operator:
The next question is from Matthew Niknam of Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.
Matthew Niknam:
Hey guys. Thanks for taking the question. I’m just curious if maybe you can speak to how some of the services activity progressed over the course of the quarter, because it seems to be maybe more of a precipitous drop off in June. But if you can comment on that and then as we think about the follow on effect, I’m just wondering, I know there was a $10 million [ph] reduction for core new leasing on the tower side this year. Presumably there may be more of a spillover effect into 2024. And so I’m not necessarily asking for the guide, we’ll wait three months for that. But I am just curious in the sense that are you comfortable with that 5% number each year between now and 2027 ex-Sprint churn, or could that fluctuate and the 5% is more of like a multi-year average to consider? Thanks.
Jay Brown:
Yes, good morning. Thanks for the questions. On your first question around services decline, we did see a change over the course of the quarter. I mean, probably a level of precision that – that may not be broadly helpful, but as we got towards the second half of the quarter or towards the end of the quarter we did see a greater decline than, than the periods at the beginning of the second quarter. On your question around $10 million of leasing decline, any revenues that we signed this year have rollover into next year. In the same way if we lower our expectation for leasing in this calendar year, then those revenues won’t exist in the following year. So certainly there’s a follow on effect to this. It’s one of the great things about the business it’s why it’s so predictable because we know the leases that we have in the business and we know what the contracted escalations are going to be. And then as we’ve contracted forward the revenue growth we can look at what those revenues are going to be and have a good sense of what they’re going to be in future periods. So are we – are we by our guidance of saying 5%, are we trying to put a precision on every 12-month period of time or every quarter going forward? No, that’s not – that’s not our intention to do that. We’re trying to take a multi-year view and then look at what do we think the growth is going to be over that multi-year period of time more from a CAGR standpoint of 5%. And I think history, which is as we laid out on the – on Slide 4, I think it’s helpful to see in and around a number it moving a little up, a little down over that period of time. So wouldn’t predict it with precision but would expect that we can – we can deliver over a period of time about 5% organic tower revenue growth on an annualized basis.
Matthew Niknam:
That’s great. Thank you.
Operator:
The next question is from Brendan Lynch of Barclays. Please go ahead.
Brendan Lynch:
Good morning. Thanks for taking my question. I just wanted to dig in a little bit more on the MLA’s from a high level. Can you just remind us what creates the volatility quarter-to-quarter in the tower core leasing activity? Is it simply timing of demand above and beyond the contracted minimum step up or is it related to leasing outside the MLAs or anything else?
Dan Schlanger:
Sure. Good morning, Brendan. It’s those things that you mentioned, so there is some variability in the contract of when they’ll actually go on-air so we have a committed amount. Sometimes those – those commitments are done earlier than, than the contractual amount which will have some effect there. And then there are portions of the business that are not contracted. If you think about our forward growth, 75% is contracted. There’s another 25% that is – that is un-contracted at the moment and will have variability to it. So it’s both of those factors across the entire population of our customers working themselves out in any – in any given quarter or a year.
Brendan Lynch:
Great. That’s helpful. And then another one on the reduction in sustaining CapEx guidance by $25 million, it’s going to be at the lowest level in five years. I’m wondering if that CapEx is just being deferred until next year or there’s another reason for the change?
Jay Brown:
No, I don’t think it’s just deferred CapEx into next year. As we’re continuing to operate the business well, we’re always looking for opportunities to run it more efficiently and effectively. And so our operating teams have done a really nice job of maintaining our assets and looking for ways to be thoughtful about sustaining capital expenditures. And so you’re highlighting something they’ve done a nice job at in the business.
Dan Schlanger:
Yeah. I just wanted to clarify one thing there, Brendan. The reduction in sustaining capital is $15 million, not $25 million.
Brendan Lynch:
Okay. Great. Thank you.
Operator:
The next question is from Brandon Nispel of KeyBanc Capital Markets. Please go ahead.
Brandon Nispel:
Great. Thanks for taking the questions. I think two for Dan and sticking on the tower leasing theme. The new guide $130 million in lease in is a 20% decline from last year, if we’re still coming off the surge in activity what’s that core leasing number look like in a normal environment? And then can – Dan, can you split between us the second half from a leasing standpoint, the $60 million guide, how we should think about that 3Q and 4Q and whether or not the exit rate should inform how we think about 2024? Thanks.
Jay Brown:
I’ll take the first question; Dan, can take the second one. Brandon, I don’t – I don’t know that we’re going to give you much clarity – much more clarity than we’ve already done around what we think the future leasing is going to look like. We think in a – in a normal go forward period of time over a multi-year period we’re going to see about 5% tower organic revenue growth. And it’s likely to move a little above, a little below that in certain periods. But I think generally that’s what our expectation would be and that’s what’s driving our longer term. If we think about value creation, when we talk about being able to get back to a point where we’re growing the dividend 7% to 8%, once we’re beyond the Sprint site rationalization process that we’re in the middle of once we’re past that point, returning to being able to grow the dividend at 7% to 8% over a long period of time, underlying that is our assumption around top line growth. And we think that’s going to be in and around 5% for a long period of, a long period of time. So, in particular, as to what it’s going to be in certain periods, we’ll continue to do as we’ve done in the past. And when we get to October, we’ll give you a view for 2024 what that lease up will be. And would expect we’ll continue to try to give you some view of what our longer term forecast will be for revenue growth. At the moment, that’s about 5% as we think our best guess of what a normal leasing environment is going to look like.
Dan Schlanger:
Yes. And Brandon, on your second question, on the $60 million remaining to the tower leasing guide for the rest of the year obviously we, there were some questions in the first quarter, why tower leasing for the first quarter was a little low, and then we came in with the second quarter and it was directly in line with what our previous guide had been. Because if you add the two together, you got the $70 million in new leasing that’s right halfway to the $140 is our, in our previous guide. As we look forward, that $60, we would say what we said last time, which is it’s probably very even there’s not a, there’s not a lot of fluctuation to it, but that doesn’t mean that each quarter is going to be exactly 30 because there are fluctuations like Jay just spoke about. So I would assume it’s going to be evenly split between the next two quarters and, it may move around here and there, but it won’t be a significant change from third quarter to the fourth quarter.
Brandon Nispel:
Good. Thank you.
Jay Brown:
Kate, maybe we can take one more question.
Operator:
The next question is from David Guarino of Green Street Advisors. Please go ahead.
David Guarino:
Thanks. A question on your expectation for the 5% organic macro tower growth through 2027. So on the remaining 25% of activity that you still need to secure the assumptions you guys have in your model, assume that comes just through densification or through new spectrum being made available. And then I have one more follow up, please.
Jay Brown:
Sure. It’s a combination of spectrum. When you say new spectrum, the way I would think about that is spectrum that’s in the hands of carriers today that has not been deployed. Based on the spectrum that could be deployed over the next several, could be auctioned off in the next several years. I think inside of the timeframe that we’re talking about predicted growth; we’re not assuming that there’s an FCC auction followed by then a build out of that spectrum. There is spectrum in the hands of carriers that has not been built out yet. And some portion of our future leasing is related to that, that spectrum that’s in the hands of carriers and has not been built out yet. And also as you referenced, there’s also the expectation that spectrum that has been built out, they’ll continue to densify that. So there’s a component of both of those elements, but not an expectation that an additional spectrum will be auctioned and then deployed in the next several years.
David Guarino:
Okay. That’s helpful. And then the last one, just wanted to ask about the recent report that came out highlighting some of your tenants, the potential sizable cleanup costs they might have on some of their legacy telecom networks. And I know nothing has materialized on that yet, but I just wanted to know, did you consider any potential financial burden on your tenants when you reiterated that 5% guidance through 2027?
Jay Brown:
We have not seen any behavior change from our carrier customers, and so I’ll let them speak to what the impact to their business will be of those recent news reports. But obviously, they’re very healthy and have a long history of being able to navigate through various cycles. And the wireless business and the demand from the consumer, we think is going to continue unabated. And so we would expect to see continued investment as they improve their network and improve the margins in their business over a long period of time from improving their network associated with that growth in demand.
David Guarino:
Great. Thank you.
Jay Brown:
You bet. Thanks everyone for joining the call this morning. We look forward to catching you up in October as we give our guidance for 2024. If we don’t see you before then, thanks for joining. [Call Ends Abruptly]
Operator:
Good morning, everyone, and welcome to the Crown Castle First Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. All participants will be in a listen-only mode. [Operator Instructions] After today's presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. [Operator Instructions] Please also note, today's event is being recorded. At this time, I'd like to turn the floor over to Ben Lowe, Senior Vice President of Corporate Finance. Please go ahead.
Ben Lowe:
Great. Thank you, Jamie, and good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us today as we discuss our first quarter 2023 results. With me on the call this morning are Jay Brown, Crown Castle’s Chief Executive Officer; and Dan Schlanger, Crown Castle’s Chief Financial Officer. To aid the discussion, we have posted supplemental materials in the Investors section of our website at crowncastle.com that will be referenced throughout the call this morning. This conference call will contain forward-looking statements, which are subject to certain risks, uncertainties and assumptions and the actual results may vary materially from those expected. Information about potential factors which could affect our results is available in the press release and the Risk Factors sections of the company’s SEC filings. Our statements are made as of today, April 20, 2023 and we assume no obligation to update any forward-looking statements. In addition, today’s call includes discussions of certain non-GAAP financial measures. Tables reconciling these non-GAAP financial measures are available in the supplemental information package in the Investors section of the company’s website at crowncastle.com. So with that, let me turn the call over to Jay.
Jay Brown:
Thanks, Ben, and good morning, everyone. Thanks for joining us on the call. We continue to see positive underlying demand trends as 5G has developed across the U.S., driving first quarter results that were in line with our expectations and no changes to our 2023 outlook. As we discussed in the press release, we expect our near-term results to be impacted by a combination of the Sprint network rationalization and a higher interest rate environment, which will result in minimal dividend growth in 2024 and 2025, despite strong projected underlying growth throughout our business. Looking past these discrete items, we believe our strategy will allow us to deliver on our long-term target of growing dividends per share at 7% to 8% per year. Our strategy is to grow revenues on our shared infrastructure and invest in new assets that will generate additional future growth. By executing this strategy, we aim to deliver the highest risk adjusted returns by consistently returning money to our shareholders through a growing dividend. This strategy is underpinned by the durability of the underlying demand trends we see in the U.S. Growth in our business has consistently been driven by our customers investing in their networks with the deployment of more spectrum and cell sites to keep pace with the rapid growth and mobile data demand. The need for substantial investment in networks has persisted from 2G through 5G. Slide 4 focuses on wireless capital spending since the early days of 4G to support mobile data demand that has increased by a factor of 62 times since 2011. While industry-wide capital may vary year-to-year, particularly as new spectrum is acquired, wireless capital spending throughout the deployment of 4G was relatively consistent, averaging approximately $30 billion per year. During this time, priorities shifted back and forth between acquiring new spectrum and deploying that spectrum with the addition of new cell sites, with both being essential for our customers to keep up with the increasing data demand. With our shared infrastructure model, we have helped our customers to maximize the benefits of these investments by lowering the cost of deployment. This value proposition has allowed us to generate significant growth in our towers business throughout the 4G rollout, and we added to that growth with investment in small cells, which began to play a critical role in helping our customers keep up with the increasing demand in the later stages of 4G. Each new generation of wireless technology has provided expanded capacity for connectivity and over time, it also created a platform for innovation that expanded how we use and rely on our mobile devices, driving ever-increasing demand for data and connectivity. As a result, we expect our customers’ network and investment in the 5G era to exceed what they spent – deploying 4G. Since we are still in the early innings of 5G, we believe these positive underlying demand trends will support our ability to sustain at least 5% organic tower revenue growth and continued acceleration in our small cell business. In the first two years of 5G deployment at scale, we led the industry with organic tower growth of greater than 6%. Additionally, we believe our current small cell backlog provides line of sight into doubling our on-air nodes over the next several years, which we expect will drive double-digit small cell revenue growth beginning in 2024. Looking at how our overall strategy is performing, since we established our long-term dividend per share growth target of 7% to 8% per year in 2017, we've delivered 9% compounded annualized dividends per share growth, returning $12 billion or 20% of our current market capitalization to our shareholders over that period. And we have been able to deliver these results while limiting our risk by focusing on the U.S., which we continue to believe is the best market in the world for wireless infrastructure ownership. Over the long-term, the durability and scale of wireless data growth in the U.S. combined with our unmatched opportunity to benefit from the likely decade long 5G development gives us confidence in our ability to deliver on our long-term target of growing dividends per share, 7% to 8% per year. We believe this growth paired with a dividend that currently yields about 5%, provides the potential for shareholders to compound double-digit total returns over a long period of time. And with that, I'll turn the call over to Dan.
Dan Schlanger:
Thanks, Jay and good morning, everyone. The continued development of 5G has extended the positive operating trends in our business into this year and positions us to deliver another year of solid growth. Results for the first quarter were in line with our expectations and our full year 2023 outlook is unchanged, highlighted by an expectation for 5% organic tower revenue growth and accelerating small cell activity with the addition of 10,000 nodes during the year. Turning to our first quarter financial results on Page 5. We generated nearly 6.5% organic growth in site rental billings, or 3% when adjusted for the impact of the Sprint cancellations. The organic growth in site rental billings contributed to 3% growth in site rental revenues, 1% growth in adjusted EBITDA, and 2% growth in AFFO. As we discussed last quarter, we expect the Sprint cancellations will result in some movements in our financial results that are not typical for our business. Our expectation for the full year impact from Sprint cancellations remains unchanged with non-renewals of approximately $30 million, an accelerated payment of $160 million to $170 million. During the first quarter, we received $48 million in accelerated payments related to Sprint cancellations within our fiber solutions business, offset by $2 million of non-renewals. We expect the majority of the remaining $110 million to $120 million in accelerated payments to occur in the second quarter, and as a result, we continue to expect the second quarter to represent the high watermark for adjusted EBITDA and AFFO in 2023. Turning to Page 6, our full year 2023 outlook remains unchanged and includes site rental revenue growth of 4%, adjusted EBITDA growth of 3%, and AFFO growth of 4%. When adjusting for the full year impact of the Sprint cancellations, we continue to expect organic site rental billings growth of approximately 4%, which consists of 5% growth in towers, 8% growth in small cells and flat site rental billings in fiber solutions. Turning to our financing activities, over the last several years, we have purposefully managed our balance sheet consistent with our aim to deliver the best risk adjusted returns to shareholders. As a result, we believe our strong investment grade balance sheet is well positioned to support our future financing needs with leverage in line with our target of approximately five times net debt-to-adjusted EBITDA, $5 billion of available liquidity under our revolving credit facility, 85% fixed rate debt, a weighted average maturity of eight years in less than 10% of total debt maturing through 2024. Our discretionary CapEx outlook for full year 2023 also remains unchanged with gross CapEx of $1.4 billion to $1.5 billion for approximately $1 billion net of expected prepaid rent. So to wrap up, we remain excited by the opportunities we see to lease our existing tower and fiber assets, while also deploying capital to expand our portfolio with additional assets that we believe will extend our growth runway and position us to deliver on our long-term dividends per share growth target of 7% to 8%. With that, Jamie, I'd like to open the call to questions.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, at this time, we'll begin the question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] Our first question today comes from Simon Flannery from Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead with your question.
Simon Flannery:
Great, thank you very much and good morning. If I could start with leasing, you've talked about reiterating guidance that implies a nice acceleration in leasing over the course of the year. Perhaps you could just update us on how you expect that to track over the next several quarters and what gives you confidence at this point that you will hit those guidance numbers. And then secondly, pulling back a bit, you talked about small cells doubling over the next few years. You see a lot of different numbers out there about the addressable market, the total demand for small cells five, 10 years out. I know you've talked a lot about that in the past. Perhaps you could just update us with what you think the TAM is for you and others over time? Thanks,
Jay Brown:
You bet. Good morning, Simon.
Simon Flannery:
Good morning.
Jay Brown:
On the first question, feel good about where we are in the year from a leasing standpoint. The first quarter as we mentioned, as Dan and I mentioned in our comments came in, is in line with what we expected for the first quarter. Obviously, we have the great benefit in the vast majority of our business for both towers and small cells of a long visibility cycle. And so have a pretty good view as to when we'll see that revenue growth over the balance of the year. We think this year will ultimately be a year that's level loaded for the most part from first half to second half, which is a little different than kind of our historical experience. If we go back over the last 20 years or so in most years, we would see somewhere between 35% and 40% of the total year's activity in the first half of the year and then the balance of it in the second half and we think this year is a little bit more level loaded between first half and second half of the year. So good start to the year, pleased with where we're at and visibility as suggested by our numbers that were unchanged for revenue growth from prior guidance. Coming in as expected and the pipeline looks like it's shaping up as we would've expected when we originally gave guidance last October. On your second question around small cells, the big driver here, as we saw and I mentioned this in my comments with 4G, certainly have seen a significant amount of site densification that frankly, towers just can't serve that need for densification of the network. We saw that at the end of 4G and both, I think in terms of the number of small cells that we've seen thus far in 5G commitments from the carrier customers as well as the conversations that we're having about what is to come in the future suggest that that opportunity is significantly more than what we saw during the 4G era. So I don't know whether it's – are we going to see a double or are we going to see a quadruple from here? I think time will tell but certainly the trajectory of that business would suggest we're going to see a growing total addressable market. And then the portion of that will be interesting to us will be a combination of those opportunities that fall on the assets that we already own and improve the yield on those assets and the co-location, which is we've seen even thus far in the early commitments that we've seen out of our customers in 5G. And then the portion of further expansion beyond there will come down to whether or not we think it meets the rigorous test that we put through each of our capital expenditures as to whether or not the returns are such that they're appropriate and will drive long-term growth in our dividend and drive a good outcome for equity holders based on the returns of those and we’ll just have to see how it plays out.
Simon Flannery:
Great. And so you’re still focused on that core of what is at 2030 key markets?
Jay Brown:
Yes. The vast majority of the activity thus far as related to the where we own our fiber is in those top 30 markets. We’ve seen some activity outside of that and certainly believe that the carriers will build and need to build small cells beyond the top 30 markets in the U.S. probably all the way out to the top 100 and beyond. And our willingness to play there will again come down to what are the – what do we believe are the return opportunities there. And if we think its highest and best use, then we’ll continue to follow the carriers there and – but we’ll have to wait and see as that that opportunity developed.
Simon Flannery:
Great. Thank you.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Brett Feldman from Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead with your question.
Brett Feldman:
Thanks for taking the question. I was hoping we could talk a little bit about what’s going on in the market for fiber solutions and a lot of investors think of this as being one of your more economically sensitive business lines. So I was hoping you could maybe talk a bit about what the market environment and this – and the demand funnel looks like. And then just if we look at the leasing activity, which I know is a year-over-year metric at $19 million in the quarter, that’s obviously pretty far below the run rate you would have to be at for the remainder of the year to get into your guidance range. Is that merely a year-over-year comp dynamic that gets easier or do you have visibility into a pickup in leasing as you move into the second quarter of the back half? Thank you.
Jay Brown:
Hey Brett, good morning, Brett. On your first question, the vast majority of our business comes from government, education, and medical. That’s the big driver of our solutions business as well as large enterprise. We have not historically seen that business be as sensitive to economic movements. Small and medium businesses tend to have much more volatility and sensitivity to economic movements. Those are not a customer base that we serve in our business. So we’re very focused on the types of customers. The activity that we’ve seen thus far in the calendar year, as well as when we look at the pipeline for the balance of the year looks in line with the expectations that we gave last October. The first quarter comp is difficult in part answer to your second question, but also following on from the first question. The comparison in the first quarter of 2022 had the benefit of about $10 million of – out of run rate activity in it. So when you compare that to the current quarter, you need to adjust for that to get kind of an apples-to-apples comparison. We think based on the pipeline that, that both we expect to build as well as where we sit now that by the end of 2023 as we exit the year, we’ll be back in, in line with kind of our expectation of being able to grow that business at about 3% at the revenue line. And all the growth in data not just wireless data, but the growth in data would suggest kind of our core markets and core customer segments will continue to need additional services and that our fiber is well placed to be able to capture that opportunity.
Brett Feldman:
Thank you.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Michael Rollins from Citi. Please go ahead with your question.
Michael Rollins:
Thanks, and good morning. So curious just going back to the subject of leasing activity, can you give us an update in terms of what you’re seeing from some of the newer tenants like DISH on your sites and how that relationship is progressing?
Jay Brown:
Good morning, Mike. We don’t like to speak to individual customers in terms of the activity that we’re seeing. I think as we’ve said many times about DISH, we have seen them behave in a very consistent way with desiring to build a nationwide network. Our teams are doing everything that we can to help them get sites on air and get them there quickly. DISH has made a very significant commitment to us in terms of the number of sites necessary for their network and a financial commitment around that. And so we’re committed to doing everything we can to help them get those sites on air. Broadly beyond the carriers that are deploying nationwide networks we’re continuing to see what the space that we refer to as verticals we’re seeing that vertical space continue to develop. And there are a number of companies that are looking at wireless plays, and they need access to our infrastructure in order to deploy either licensed or unlicensed spectrum. Those tend to be more market by market decisions and we’ve got a team focused on capturing as much of that opportunity as there is and feel good about the longer-term opportunities. It’s not so much meaningful in our short-term results, but we think over the next decade as 5G is deployed, that it’s another way that spectrum will be used to meet the growing data minutes that are happening from a wireless standpoint. And we’ll see a number of opportunities in our business to capture some of that growth both on the tower side as well as small cells.
Michael Rollins:
And when you look at the guidance ranges particularly on tower leasing activity for 2023, can you remind us, what are the things that can go incrementally right to put you at the higher end of the range versus some of the factors that could push you to the lower end of the range?
Jay Brown:
When it comes to towers, we have pretty long visibility and the majority of our revenue growth is contracted as we look at 2023. So by this point of the year, we have pretty good view as to where we’re going to come out from a tower standpoint and things that we would see positively and negatively might affect a little bit of our run rate as we go into 2024, but are unlikely to have a material impact in calendar year 2023. So we’d have to update you as we get into the year. The biggest drivers – this is always the case in the business, the biggest drivers over the long-term are the investment of the carriers of improving their network and in cycles where they’re upgrading as they are now upgrading to 5G the biggest driver is the number of sites that they go out and upgrade from in this case 4G to 5G shows up in the form of amendments on our existing site. And then as the adoption cycle happens and devices gets in – get into the hands of consumers that enables 5G, we would expect densification to be required. We’re still in the early stages, as I mentioned in my comments of the deployment of 5G, which means the majority of the activity that we’re seeing would still be amendments to existing sites and upgrading those sites to 5G. And then we’ll get into the next phase in the coming years as we start to see more site densification, which will be a combination we believe of both towers and small cells. The big driver though is minutes of use and that trend line appears to be really healthy and the carriers have acquired a significant amount of spectrum over the last several years for 5G. And our business is about putting that spectrum to work and getting it deployed the best indication of what our future growth will be.
Michael Rollins:
Thanks.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Brendan Lynch from Barclays. Please go ahead with your question.
Brendan Lynch:
Great. Good morning. Thanks for taking the question. Maybe two on the dividend. You’ve suggested it’s going to be below your 7% to 8% target for the next couple years. I’m wondering if you’re at the lower end of your CapEx guidance, would you be more inclined to raise the dividend to hit your target range or potentially use the available cash for buybacks?
Jay Brown:
Good morning, Brendan. Thanks for the question. We think about the business, let me step back big picture and talk about how we think about capital allocation. Our goal is to distribute virtually all of the cash flow that we produce in the business to shareholders. We think that that’s the best way to operate the business because we think it drives the most value for shareholders over the long period of time. And it creates a lot of discipline internally about how we think about capital allocation. It makes the capital scarce, and in order to make investments, we need to come to the debt market or to the equity market in our case basically the debt market to make the case for why these investments should be made. And that scarcity of resource, I think creates good discipline around capital allocation. So we start with a view that we’re going to distribute all of the cash flow. So the amount of capital that we spend whether it goes a little up or a little down really does not impact how we think about the dividend. So my comments around the minimal dividend growth and below our target for 2024 and 2025 relate to the two discrete items that we highlighted in the press release. And Dan and I mentioned in our comments around the rationalization that’s ongoing in the Sprint network and the increase of the interest rate environment between those two items over the next – over 2024 and 2025, as we’ve given you guidance that, that, that would suggest the number that’s in the neighborhood of $350 million of headwind that we’re facing over those two years. So that’s the reason why we’re giving you some view as to the dividend. We’re giving you both the numbers and our view and then where the cash flow comes up will ultimately determine how we set the dividend.
Brendan Lynch:
Okay. Great. Thank you. Maybe just one other capital related question. If this $750 million maturity in July, you’ve got a good deal of balance sheet flexibility at this point are – what are you thinking about in terms of delevering or refinancing or potentially just using the capacity of the revolver?
Dan Schlanger:
Yes. Brendan, I’m going to take – Jay just to take a step back just talk about how we think about the revolver and our balance sheet in general. We have a $7 billion revolver, and the reason for that is we – when we size the revolver, we want to look out for the next 18 months or so and ensure that we have liquidity that is sufficient to pay for any upcoming debt maturities, plus any capital expenditures we would need to run the business. The thinking behind that is that there are times when the debt capital market shut down, and we don’t want to be caught in a position where we have to access a really bad market. And in order to pay off our maturities or spend our capital. So with $5 billion remaining on that revolver, it depends on what the market is of how we’re going to refinance the $750 million maturity. We’ll either utilize the revolver for what it was in place for, which is to take advantage of that liquidity when if in this case what would happen would be a bad debt market would keep us out of the debt markets, or if the debt markets are really good, we might access them in order to refinance the maturity or pay down or reduce the borrowings on our revolver. So that’s a decision we make all the time, depending on what the debt market looks like and what we think is coming in terms of our maturities and capital expenditures. But like I said, we feel really good about this because we’ve spent the last several years trying to manage our balance sheet so that we would not be caught accessing a dislocated debt market or in a position where we have too much debt that is necessary to be refinanced in any given year, which is why the total the weighted average maturity life has been so important to us over the last several years. We’re at eight years. The reason that we’ve been focused on that number is so that we don’t get caught with any one stack of maturities in one year that would cause us some difficulty in refinancing. So when you put it all together, it depends on the debt markets, but we feel really good about our opportunities and the flexibility we’ve put into the business.
Brendan Lynch:
Great. Thanks for the color.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Greg Williams from TD Cowen. Please go ahead with your question.
Greg Williams:
Great, thanks for taking my questions. Just back on the tower leasing guide, you’re messaging confidence on hitting the 1.35 to 1.45 range. You mentioned that a lot of it is baked in with MLA’s. Can you give us a finer point on how much of that some of your peers have noted that 80% to 90% of their guide as MLA’s baked in. I was wondering if you were at similar levels. And then I was asking about the mix of your new leasing and what’s co-lo versus amendment leasing? And I’m just trying to figure out, when we’re going to move on from coverage mode to densification mode and subsequently more co-lo spending. Thanks.
Jay Brown:
Good morning, Greg. On your first question, at this point in the year, laying aside customer commitments that we’ve received. At this point in the year, the time to – the time required from application and approved application and known lease amendment, if you will, as you’re asking the question to when it’s actually on air. That generally takes kind of six to nine months. So by the time, we’re at the end of April of any given year, we have really good visibility as to what we’re going to put on air in that calendared year, just from a pure timeline standpoint. So from – as we mentioned in our commentary, the majority of our revenue growth is contracted. We were in that position in October of last year. Today, we not only have the majority of that contracted, but we also have visibility to where those applications are in the specific sites that they’re going on. And we’re all diligently working in order to get them on air. So the impact to our numbers at this point from movements one way or the other, either to the positive or to the negative is relatively limited just because of our longer term visibility. I don’t know if that answers kind of both of the way you’re thinking about your questions there, but the visibility that we have and we feel really good about where we are for the balance of this year, both in terms of the applications we’ve received to date as well as the contracted revenues. On the second part of your question more specifically to amendments and new leases, I mentioned this earlier in one of my answers, but we’re still at a point in time in the deployment cycle where the majority – the vast majority of the activity is amendments to existing leases. That has been true and is true in typical technology upgrade cycles of the past we’re finding that to be true in 5G. So the vast majority of the activity that we’ve seen thus far and would expect really frankly in this calendar year, it’s going to be more amendment driven. And then as they’ve touched – once it gets to the point where they’ve touched the vast majority of their existing sites with 4G upgrades to 5G, then we’ll start to see the shift towards first time installs on new sites in order to densify the network. And that work has begun. You can see some of that in small cells, which is probably the best place to see that discrete activity. Those for the most part are infill sites where they’re increasing the density of the network in order to improve the 5G network that they’re delivering for consumers.
Dan Schlanger:
The only thing I would add to that, Greg, is that the one difference there is that DISH is mostly, or almost all co-locations, they didn’t have anything else. So what Jay is talking about probably excludes DISH as an outlier, but I probably went without saying, but I said it anyway.
Greg Williams:
Got it. Thanks for the color.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Matthew Niknam from Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead with your question.
Matthew Niknam:
Hey guys, thank you for taking the questions. Just two, if I could. First on small cells, any incremental color you can share on the backlog and the percent of the nodes in the backlog that are either co-lo relative to maybe newer sort of greenfield build. And then on leverage, there was some illusions to this before, but you’ve obviously got benefits this year to EBITDA from the spring termination payments and some of the accelerated amortization of prepaid rent in 2025. You obviously have the loss of $200 million of sprint tower rent that churns off. So I’m just wondering in the context of those headwinds, how do you think about leverage the next two years relative to that five churn sort of target we’ve talked about as a more maybe long-term level? Thanks.
Jay Brown:
I’ll let Dan take the second question. On the first question around the backlog of nodes, we have two significant customer agreements that we’ve previously announced, 35,000 nodes from T-Mobile and 15,000 nodes from Verizon. In the case of the T-Mobile, 35,000 nodes, we were specific that the majority of those – vast majority of those were going to be co-located on existing fiber. And so those would – almost all of those would be co-locations. In the Verizon agreement, it’s a combination of co-locations and first time installs. The activity that we’re undertaking in the business, both in calendar year 2024 and over the – frankly, the next couple of years as we finish out the backlog is going to be a pretty healthy mix of co-location driving the yields on the existing assets that we have. And at the same time, we’re talking to customers about future projects that may expand the footprint that we have, and we’ll put those through the rigorous process of analysis of making sure that we think there’s good returns over time and that it’s a good allocation of capital that will drive those returns. And – but in the short to medium-term here, as we build up the backlog, it’s going to be more weighted towards co-locations than first time.
Dan Schlanger:
Yes. And on the leverage point, I think everything you said is true, and the way we think about our leverage is we want to maintain leverage that’s close to our target of 5 times net debt to EBITDA, which we were this quarter. But that number does fluctuate. As we’ve seen over the course of the last several years, that number can be a little bit below a little bit above, and we believe that the long-term growth of the business allows us to grow into that additional leverage that we will take on to pay for the CapEx, as Jay was mentioning earlier. And keep us around that 5 times debt to EBITDA, but if there’s any one-year that we’re a little bit above, I think we’re okay, we have some flexibility there as long as we have a plan over time to get back to close to our leverage target. That’s how we’ve managed it for the past five years, and I believe that’ll be very similar to how we’ll manage over the next five years.
Matthew Niknam:
That’s excellent. Thank you both.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Ric Prentiss from Raymond James. Please go ahead with your question.
Ric Prentiss:
Thanks. Good morning, everybody.
Jay Brown:
Good morning, Rick.
Ric Prentiss:
A couple questions. I think in the past you’ve updated us maybe on what percent of your sites do you think the carriers have touched as far as getting 5G mid band deployed? Is there kind of an aggregate number as you kind of blend together the different schedules of your major carrier customers?
Jay Brown:
Yes, we think we’re a little north of 50% at the moment across all of the carriers.
Ric Prentiss:
Okay. And obviously it varies by carrier.
Jay Brown:
Exactly.
Ric Prentiss:
As we think about DISH, obviously, you mentioned you’ve got the significant financial commitment. I think it was for 20,000 sites. What’s the timeframe that 20,000 sites was contemplated to be included on the financial commitment?
Jay Brown:
It was the 15-year agreement that we signed with them. And Ric, we gave that number, we talked about the number of sites and a 15-year commitment that they were making to us. We don’t give more specific than that because we were careful about guarding their deployment plans. So it’s a 15-year commitment that they’re making to us. Maybe the other point that’s important is obviously the timing of the cash flow have impacts as we think about the guidance that we give around organic tower revenue growth that would be a component of that. And so our view of our ability to both deliver the 2023 numbers that are in our outlook as well as the longer term commentary that both Dan and I have made around being able to be – able to grow at 5% at the tower line, a part of that commitment that they’ve made plays into our view of that over the longer-term.
Ric Prentiss:
[Indiscernible]
Dan Schlanger:
Sorry, Ric. I was just going to add, I think you understand that the contract as Jay was alluding to gives us a minimum contractual payment. That grows over time as well, regardless of how many sites they’re on. So they have the opportunity to go on up to 20,000 of our sites, but not an obligation to do so. And our view has been that that provides us a tremendous amount of value, because we want them on as many sites as possible for us, because we believe that this is a long-term network investment and the more sites we’re on, the more sites we can grow on going forward. But also it provides us an opportunity to be very early on in the planning of that network and understanding what they’re going to do. And I think that that’s just a good relationship for us to have. So it’s not just the 20,000 sites that’s important. It’s the minimum contractual payment that goes along with those up to 20,000 sites they can go on.
Ric Prentiss:
Makes sense. And from your supplement, it looked like T-Mobile maybe is 38% of revenue. T and Verizon are in the high teens almost looking at 20%. Since DISH is not called out, is it safe to assume DISH is not yet a 10% type customer?
Dan Schlanger:
Yes, not necessarily. We will – that chart is there to give you a general view, but we have a lot of customers that aren’t called out specifically, and DISH is just one of a lot of customers that aren’t called out specifically.
Ric Prentiss:
Okay. More detailed question and then I’ll wrap it up. Obviously, non-cash amortization of prepaid rent somewhat flat from 2022 to 2023, but it feels like the amount of attributable to towers is probably coming down the amount attributable to small cells is going up. Can you just kind of confirm that? And then as we think about the 2024 supplement talking about where amortization of non-cash, amortization of prepaid rent could drop by more than $200 million, if there’s no more prepaid rent put in. How’s that drop kind of attributable to how much drops in towers versus small cells?
Dan Schlanger:
Yes. So the way you characterize where we are in prepaid rent in this year is true. The tower number will come down about $50 million and it’ll be offset primarily by small cells, which is generally because of the cancellation payments accelerate some of that prepaid rent to get us back to about flat on prepaid rent amortization. Going forward, as we’ve talked about a lot, those tables are not projections. They’re just as we sit today as statically what would happen. And we believe we will continue to add CapEx and generate additional prepaid rent amortization as we get reimbursements for our customers for that CapEx over the course of the year. But as you mentioned, like in 2023, the drop-off will be more likely to happen in towers with an acceleration in small cells to offset that drop-off in towers.
Ric Prentiss:
Okay. Very good. Thanks, guys. Stay well.
Jay Brown:
You too.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Nick Del Deo from SVB MoffettNathanson. Please go ahead with your question.
Nick Del Deo:
Hey, good morning guys. Thanks for taking my questions. First one on fiber solutions. I was wondering if you could talk about any changes you may be seeing in the competitive environment for fiber solutions. I think some of your large competitors are reorganizing internally and may be taking as more aggressive steps to try to grow the cable guys are push in that direction a little bit. So any observations there and the degree to which you’re observing and responding to change or not seeing change even would be helpful.
Jay Brown:
Sure. Good morning, Nick. I mentioned this in the earlier question, but our fiber solutions business is a bespoke solution that we offer that has a very unique customer set that we pursue. It’s largely focused around government education and medical solutions. And we don’t pursue medium and small businesses. A lot of the changes that we’ve seen whether it’s economically driven or as you mentioned driven by broader macro environment matters and more subject to competition. There have been obviously in that space, the number of changes. We haven’t really seen a big change in the environment for the core customers that we pursue. And so we think our fiber brings a really compelling solution in terms of our ability to identify where their data travels and to provide a bespoke solution to them. And have seen underlying outside of kind of the one-time items that we mentioned in the comments, have seen that business grow at a pretty steady pace and think we will by the end of this year return back to kind of our 3% target of growth in the business.
Nick Del Deo:
Okay. Okay. That’s helpful. And then maybe one more on fiber more generally. Any sort of update you can share as it relates to supply chain. I know a couple players have talked about that loosening up a bit. I think you’ve historically said that permitting has generally been a bit more of a hurdle for you than supply chain specifically. So, any comments there and the degree which it may influence your growth path in coming periods?
Jay Brown:
Sure. I think our team has done a really good job navigating some really difficult supply chain challenges over the last several years. And it has not impacted our results, which is a real credit to the team as to how well they’ve navigated through that and worked with our customers. I would say as you mentioned, the more challenging thing for us has been navigating through municipalities both from a utility standpoint as well as a permitting standpoint. The moat and protection around the business is significant. And that makes the initial deployment of these technologies and this infrastructure a very long cycle and very difficult to do. And I’ll mention it again, but really proud of the team in terms of how they’ve learned to work at the local level to preserve the aesthetic that’s desired in the community, which is always a really key point of the deployment of this technology. And then work with what’s needed for our customers. And I think that’s the sweet spot for us and how we make money. Our customers view us as an opportunity to lower their cost of deployment by delivering a shared asset and then us being able to deliver that asset that shared solution on a timeline that is faster than any other solution would provide. And in order to do that, we’ve got to be good both on the supply chain side, but we’ve also got to be good on the permitting side and getting both power and the ability to deploy at those sites in order to be able to deploy the network for our customers.
Nick Del Deo:
Okay. Got it. Thank you, Jay.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Jonathan Atkin from Royal Bank of Canada. Please go ahead with your question.
Jonathan Atkin:
Thanks very much. Couple questions. Small cell ramp that you’re talking about, what are the implications for discretionary CapEx going forward? Because you’re up this year on a year-on-year basis, and then given the potential opportunities that you see going forward, maybe just review with us the directionality for that trend for CapEx discretionary.
Dan Schlanger:
Yes. Hey, Jon. I think you’re alluding to as the number of nodes increases, CapEx generally increases as well. What you can see this year though following on, on what Jay was talking about earlier around co-location, is that even though we’re doubling the number of nodes we’re putting on air, we’re only increasing our CapEx by a little over 10% on a net basis in our fiber business. So you can see that the impact of co-location can have a pretty substantial impact on the magnitude of the change of CapEx on a year-over-year basis compared to the magnitude of the change of the nodes. So we don’t – we can’t give specific guidance on what we believe will happen in 2024 and beyond on small cell, because we don’t understand everything that’s going to go into those numbers yet. But generally speaking, as we add more nodes, we’ll add more CapEx, so the trajectory would be up a bit.
Jonathan Atkin:
And the timeframe to get a note on air, I think you’ve talked about 24 to 36 months. And any changes in that sort of co-location cycle time or node deployment time that you’ve shared with that.
Jay Brown:
Jon, we haven’t seen any movement in that. It’s the most – the vast majority of the nodes are still following in – falling into that 24 to 36 month cycle.
Jonathan Atkin:
And then two more quick ones. Just the MLA question that you alluded to, if we’re entering into an environment where a lot of the operators for various reasons have kind of hit or are about to hit their medium term milestones for mid band spectrum deployments and overlays. If we do enter a period of kind of tapering growth, what commentary can you provide that might –would your revenue growth relatably go down or do the MLA kind of perhaps provide a little bit of downside protection? Any comment on that would be interesting? And then the last one, I’ll kind of throw it on 5% to 3% growth number. What products are you seeing demand for that underlie that growth assumption? Is it number of connections around dark fiber or wavelengths, or you talked about bandwidth as a driver, but is it more – maybe more dark in infrastructure type products that driving the growth? Or is it more network – traditional network products that are driving the growth assumption provided?
Dan Schlanger:
Sure. On your first question around longer-term growth for towers, the MLA’s obviously give us some portion of that future growth as contracted. And so we have visibility towards that end. We also have beyond the contracted amount, we have the opportunity to make that even more beyond the contracted growth as the carriers deploy network. And our long-term view is that we can grow tower revenues around 5% organically over the long period of time, which drives our assumption of being able to return to 7% to 8% dividend growth. I think it’s probably one of those times as people start to think about where we’re at in the cycle as we past the first couple of years of deployment of 5G that has – our industry has faced during the deployment years of 2G and then 2.5G and 3G and 4G and now we’re at 5G where people wonder whether the early spending of a technology cycle is over after the carriers have acquired some spectrum and started to deploy sites. And I think past cycles have as an indication and a teacher of the future would indicate that more investment will come over a long period of time. And it will take – as I mentioned in my comments, it’ll probably take a full decade to basically deploy 5G. And as we look at the growth in minutes of use is the best indicator of that. The steepness of that curve is not flattening out in terms of consumer behavior. In fact, the curve is steepening as the devices are used more. And there’s only two ways to deliver that increased need for capacity in the wireless network. It’s either through additional spectrum in the hands of the carrier or sites. And our experience has taught us that both are necessary. The carriers will need – will have some spectrum that they have not deployed today. As they deploy that spectrum, we’ll get the benefit in our revenue growth numbers. And then additional density will be required and our infrastructure will benefit from that. As we look at each of those cycles from 2G to 3G, 3G to 4G and 4G to 5G, in each of those cycles, as I mentioned in my comments, it’s resulted in more CapEx over the era or over the period of time that the network was deployed. So it certainly is stacking up that way as we look at the early part of 5G, we think ultimately the capital spend on 5G is likely to be more than what we saw in 4G. And so, one of the great things about our business is we think about it and are able to think about it over a long-term. We got long-term commitments from our customers, and the deployment cycles are long. So our goal is to ensure that we’re providing the infrastructure at an appropriate cost to the customers, and we’re focused on deploying it as quickly as we can for them. And then the tailwind of demand from the consumer ultimately drives the need for our infrastructure. And we’re as excited today about what 5G is going to mean for this business over the next decade as we’ve been in past technology cycles and feel really comfortable about where our growth is. On your second question around the products for fiber, I would say very similar to what we have in the mix today. Not much change, combination of new logos that our sales team is doing a good job of reaching out to and capturing that sit on the fiber plant that we already have in the ground and leveraging that fiber to drive yield. And the products that we’re offering, they are the same products that we’ve been offering combination of wavelengths and dark fiber. And some of that is driven in your question. Some of it is driven by increased growth in the need. Some of it is driven by the movement of data towards the cloud certainly as the driver of that business. And probably those two factors just the overall amount of data being created as well as movement of data to the cloud are probably the two fundamental drivers of the growth that we’re seeing in that business and then as we’re expanding to new logos across the fiber that we already own.
Jonathan Atkin:
Thank you very much.
Operator:
And our next question comes from Brandon Nispel from KeyBanc Capital Markets. Please go ahead with your question.
Brandon Nispel:
Great. Thank you for taking the questions. Two, if I could. Jay, I think you had mentioned bookings not really having a big impact on growth this year. I think that’s pretty understandable. I think what I’d like to hear, if you guys could characterize what bookings are looking like in terms of new lease applications and how that’s been trending on a year-over-year basis, year-to-date are they trending lower or higher compared to the change in core leasing that we’ve seen? And then Dan question on the guidance. If we look at the guide for towers, I think it was $140 million in core leasing and for fiber it was $125 million just given where you guys started this year. And I think Jay commented that it was more of a level loaded year for leasing. How do you get to where you expect to be by the end of the year given the run rate at the beginning of the year was so much lower than what would be needed to hit the guide? Thanks.
Jay Brown:
Yes, Brandon thanks for the questions. On the – on your first question, and I’ll let Dan take the second one. We’ve seen the activity from the carriers to be consistent with our expectation that we’ll be able to grow revenue on the tower side at 5% per annum, so the bookings that we’ve seen is relevant to that. And I would even expand the bookings to include the conversations that are ongoing that will lead to future bookings. Those conversations, those activities that view of their network and the need would be consistent with our view that will be able to grow tower revenues over the long term at about 5%.
Dan Schlanger:
And taking the second question on the new leasing, as Jay mentioned before, the level loaded comment that we made is that this year will not have in the tower business, a first half, second half difference as much as our previous years have. That doesn’t mean that every quarter is going to be exactly the same. Our business does operate with a little bit of variability. And I think we saw some of that in the first quarter. But it doesn’t give us any reason to believe that our full year guidance won’t come true. So everything that we’ve talked about, we still have a lot of confidence in our ability to deliver on the tower business. On the fiber side, as Jay mentioned, there’s one thing that just a comparison period of the first quarter of 2022, the first quarter of 2023, is that the first quarter of 2022 had $10 million of out of period bookings in it. So if you normalize for that, the bookings growth, we look a lot more in line with our longer with our full year guidance. But we also said through the year that we knew that the back half of 2022 had a little less activity, which is driving the flat fiber solutions growth in 2023. And that activity would pick up through the year, which is why when we exit the year, we believe we’ll be back to the 3% revenue growth. So we do expect some increase in activity in the fiber business to be able to reach our $125 million of new leasing activity forecast for 2023.
Brandon Nispel:
Understood. Thank you.
Operator:
Our next question comes from David Barden from Bank of America. Please go ahead with your question.
David Barden:
Hey guys. Thanks so much. I guess two questions just first a little question, Dan, on fiber services expenses, which jumped up about 10 million, even as the revenue kind of new organic revenue came down 10 million, could you kind of give us a sense as to whether that’s a jumping off point for the rest of the year or there was some other moving parts in that? And then Jay, just the second question, I want to kind of just push back a little bit on the minutes of use theory, which is that consumption is a driver of capacity demand. And of course they’re correlated, but consumption grows because people are using their phones at night and in the morning. And capacity demand is really a function of that one second in the day and the one sector in the one cell that carriers need to anticipate will expand. And applications that consume data, the biggest ones, video, maps, those sorts of things. They work at lowering the required capacity because it expands their addressable market globally to networks that don’t have the kinds of capacity that the U.S. has. So, absent incremental applications, developments, capacity requirements actually shrink through time. So what – how do you kind of address that bear market concern that with there are no new applications. And the only new application really that people talk about is maybe private networks for enterprise, and maybe that is the big opportunity for the tower companies. But I was wondering if you could kind of like elaborate a little bit more on that because we’re having that conversation a lot these days? Thank you.
Jay Brown:
Sure Dave. Dan, you want to take the first question, then I’ll do the second?
Dan Schlanger:
Sure. I’ll do it really quick. There are – there is some seasonality in the business, Dave of when we pay some specific things. So the $10 million increase is not something you can annualize for the year. We believe that the growth and expenses will be similar to the growth in the revenues.
David Barden:
Thanks.
Jay Brown:
Dave, on your second question, I think you do draw an important point and certainly my comments are not intended to set an expectation that our top line revenue growth would track at the growth rate of minutes of use. Minutes of use are growing north of 30% per year. I think the point that I’m trying to make is directionally that suggests a demand on the wireless carriers network that ultimately is fault [ph] through our use of infrastructure. And I think you’re correct in pointing out that the carriers have done a really good job over time. And device manufacturers have done a good job as well as application developers have done a good job of trying to figure out a way to use that spectrum as efficiently as possible. And some portion of the growth in minutes of use has been solved through spectral efficiency. Whether that’s applications as you mentioned, or improvements in the technology, which have certainly happened. And that is significant if you go back and look at where we were even in a 2G world, the spectral efficiency today and 5G is many, many times more efficient than what it was in 2G. But that has not negated the need for continued growth in the network infrastructure and the density of that network. So I think that would point to two things as the specific driver to go a layer deeper than just the tailwind of growth and minutes of use. The first is where is – where are those minutes of use consumed? And as we look at network deployments in the places where we have, I think a pretty unique view from a small cell standpoint, our small cells are going in places where there’s already tower infrastructure and significant tower infrastructure that’s providing overall coverage in a market. But the growth in minutes inside of an area that today is covered by a tower site, the growth in minutes of use drives a need for additional infrastructure inside of the coverage range of particular tower. And in order to maintain the spectral efficiency of the tower, the carriers have to offload some of those minutes into small cells and that improves the overall network experience for the consumer. I think all of us have had the experience where we look down at our phone, we have four or five bars and we still get the spinning wheel of death of not being able to connect. And ultimately small cells are solving that challenge and the growth in minutes of use drives the need for that. So that would be one area that I would point to. The second thing I would point to is the innovation that the platform creates. And I think this is incredibly important to ultimately where will we go? I think the question that you ask around what is the killer application, what is going to be necessary with this technology trend. These were the same questions that we asked in 2G, 3G, 4G. We used to just talk on these devices and there was seemingly no need for 2.5G to give us access to internet searching capabilities. And we’ve found ways to use the devices in greater ways. I believe the same thing will be true in 5G that the innovation and the platform that 5G creates will spur additional innovations and additional uses and there won’t be any one killer application that drives the need. But it will be a multitude of applications and uses for the devices that will drive the need and spur future growth beyond even what we’re seeing today. So I think the combination of those two things gives us a lot of confidence that will benefit from the growing minutes of use and the carriers also will continue to do what is good for them of finding efficient ways to utilize that spectrum and to some degree finding ways to limit their need for additional sites and spectrum. And the combination of good for them and good for us ultimately is good for us. We want our customers to be healthy and provide a good proposition for the consumers and we want to see minutes of use grow.
David Barden:
Thanks, Jay.
Jay Brown:
Maybe we’ll take – operator, maybe if we could take one more question.
Operator:
Our final question today comes from Walter Piecyk from LightShed. Please go ahead with your question.
Walter Piecyk:
Thanks. Two questions. First one on the DISH 15-year contract, if there is a change of control or sale or lease of the underlying spectrum, you still get the minimum payments?
Jay Brown:
Well, so that’s a level of detail of a customer contracts we wouldn’t get into.
Walter Piecyk:
Okay. And then on the fiber solutions, the 20 million, 19 million, I guess, if you back out the 10, you’re still going from 35 down to 19. So I know in like towers and fibers, it’s really just execution on bookings, contracts, whatever that you execute on. If fiber solutions the same thing, meaning that like I think a lot of us are having a hard time seeing this drop off to 19 from 35 last year, which backs out the 10, and the 30 and the 30 plus and the number quarters. Like just getting to the ramp to get you to the 125. So it might be helpful to give like qualitatively, is it the same type of visibility that you have in towers that you do in fiber solutions? Thank you.
Dan Schlanger:
Yes, well, I think the one thing that might be a little different than what you just expressed is the 19 of growth, you would have to amend by $10 million because what happened was $10 million you pull out of the previous year, which means the growth from Q1 to the growth to 2022 to [ph] Q1 2023 was actually 30 or 29, not 19. So you can’t just back it out of the new leasing activity from the previous quarter. You got to back it out of the run rate revenue at that point to show what the growth would’ve been. And that gets you much closer to the growth that we’re talking about for the full year. And we have visibility as we’ve been talking about, to the extent to what Jay was speaking to earlier, we do have visibility to that activity level increasing over time. But I don’t think it’s such a large leap that it would be not understandable to an external party to say, okay, it makes sense that 30 could be 35 or something like that. We’ve seen those types of quarters in the past. And as we grow through the course of the year, we believe we will get more activity as data demand continues to grow for the reasons Jay expressed earlier.
Walter Piecyk:
Well, it’s very helpful. But can I just do one quick follow-up? So the 125, if we’re just doing the simple math on that, are we using 19 as the number or we should be – 125 should – we should be using 29 as the number that adds up to the 125?
Dan Schlanger:
Yes. So it’s 19 in that case and we should see the increase in over time to get to 35 plus of growth in a certain quarter. But like we were talking about, we do think there is activity that’s growing through the course of the year in order for us to get there.
Walter Piecyk:
Got it.
Jay Brown:
Well, the second part of your question, just zooming out from the specific numbers in the year, and you alluded to kind of the difference between towers and small cells and maybe fiber solutions. Obviously, those businesses are different. Our fiber solutions business is more transactional. And so we don’t typically see multi-year commitments from our customers in the same way that we do from a tower small cell, meaning for future business. Obviously, there are multi-year contracts and commitments when we sign. But we don’t have multi-year visibility as to what the revenue growth is going to be. So it’s more transactional in nature and we have a shorter timeline of visibility of what that growth is going to be. We feel good as Dan and I have mentioned in a couple of answers to a couple of different questions, we feel good about where our guidance is and where we expect the year to fall. But if you are looking for differences among kind of our business lines, certainly, there is a difference in terms of the number of months of visibility that we would have and then also the more transactional nature of that fiber solutions business.
Walter Piecyk:
Understood. Thank you.
Jay Brown:
You bet.
Jay Brown:
Well, thanks everybody for joining the call this morning. And thanks to our team who’ve continued to do a really good job executing. Appreciate all you’re doing for our customers. Keep up the great work. Thanks, everyone. We’ll talk soon.
Operator:
And ladies and gentlemen, with that, we’ll end today’s conference call and presentation. We thank you for joining. You may now disconnect your line.
Operator:
Good morning and welcome to the Crown Castle Fourth Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. All participants will be in listen-only mode. [Operator Instructions] After today’s presentation there will be an opportunity to ask questions. [Operator Instructions] Please note this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Ben Lowe, Senior Vice President. Please go ahead.
Ben Lowe:
Thank you, Kate and good morning everyone. Thank you for joining us today as we discuss our fourth quarter 2022 results. With me on the call this morning are Jay Brown, Crown Castle’s Chief Executive Officer; and Dan Schlanger, Crown Castle’s Chief Financial Officer. To aid the discussion, we have posted supplemental materials in the Investors section of our website at crowncastle.com that will be referenced throughout the call this morning. This conference call will contain forward-looking statements, which are subject to certain risks, uncertainties and assumptions and the actual results may vary materially from those expected. Information about potential factors which could affect our results is available in the press release and the Risk Factors sections of the company’s SEC filings. Our statements are made as of today, January 26, 2023 and we assume no obligation to update any forward-looking statements. In addition, today’s call includes discussions of certain non-GAAP financial measures. Tables reconciling these non-GAAP financial measures are available in the supplemental information package in the Investors section of the company’s website at crowncastle.com. So with that, let me turn the call over to Jay.
Jay Brown:
Thanks, Ben and thank you everyone for joining us on the call this morning. As you saw from our results, 2022 was another successful year for Crown Castle and the positive trends across our business remain intact. With fourth quarter 2022 results coming in as we expected and no changes to our 2023 outlook, I plan to keep my prepared remarks brief before handing it over to Dan to talk through the numbers in a bit more detail. As I reflect on 2022, I am proud of what our team accomplished. We led the industry again with nearly 6.5% organic tower revenue growth as our customers upgraded existing tower sites with additional spectrum and added equipment to thousands of tower sites they were not previously on to support nationwide deployment of 5G. And we deployed 5,000 small cells to support initial network densification efforts while growing our fiber solutions revenue by 2%. The positive operating trends in 2022 exceeded our initial expectations for the year and offset the impact of the rapid increase in interest rates, demonstrating the resilience of our business model and strategy. As a result, we were able to deliver strong bottom line growth that supported more than 9% dividend per share growth. As we discussed when we initially provided guidance in October, we believe that a positive operating momentum will carry into 2023, driving another year of expected strong growth with 5% organic growth in towers and a doubling of our small cell deployments to 10,000 nodes. With respect to tower leasing trends, the established national wireless operators are deploying mid-band spectrum in earnest as a part of the initial phase of their 5G build-out. To-date, only about half of our sites across our top three customers have been upgraded with mid-band spectrum, providing a significant opportunity for additional revenue growth as additional sites are upgraded over time before their focus will likely shift to more infill with new co-locations. Adding to the substantial long-term growth opportunity, we continue to support DISH with their nationwide build-out of a new wireless network. And I believe we are in a great position to continue to capture an outsized share of that opportunity. Turning to small cells, we expect to double the rate of small cell deployments this year to 10,000 nodes with over half co-located on existing fiber to meet the growing demand from our customers as 5G networks will require small cells at scale. With approximately 60,000 nodes on air and another 60,000 contracted in our backlog, I believe 2023 will represent the first year in a sustained acceleration of growth for our small cell business. We also continue to see opportunities to add to the returns we are generating from small cells by leveraging the same shared fiber assets to pursue profitable fiber solutions growth and we expect to return to 3% growth as we exit 2023. Looking at the bigger picture beyond this year and why I am so excited about our growth opportunity, we are still in the early innings with 5G as the industry is only a couple of years into what we expect will be a decade-long growth opportunity. Our customers are seeing significantly higher levels of monthly data consumption as consumers upgrade to 5G, providing the need for significant network investment for years to come to keep pace with this persistent growth in mobile data demand. As we have seen in our industry throughout its history, generational upgrades to the wireless network occur in phases with an initial push to provide nationwide coverage followed by periods of continued network augmentation and densification that has led to long periods of sustained growth. We believe we are in the initial phase of the 5G build-out with many phases to follow over the coming years. Consistent with their past practice, we believe our customers will first deploy their spectrum on the majority of their existing sites as they are currently doing before shifting their focus to cell site densification to get the most out of their spectrum assets by reusing it over shorter and shorter distances. The nature of wireless networks requires that cell site densification will continue as the density of data demand grows and we expect 5G densification to require both towers and small cells at scale to fill in the network. With that view in mind, we have invested more than $40 billion of capital to-date in towers and more recently, small cells and fiber that are mission-critical for wireless networks to capture as much of this growth opportunity as possible. Importantly, we are already generating a 10% return on our total invested capital with the opportunity to increase that return over time as we add customers to our tower and fiber assets and grow our cash flow. As a result, I believe Crown Castle is an excellent investment that will generate compelling returns by providing investors with access to the most exposure to the development of next-generation networks in the U.S. with our comprehensive offering of towers, small cells and fiber, providing the opportunity to benefit from the best growth and lowest risk market, an attractive total return profile with a current yield of 4% and a long-term annual dividend per share growth target of 7% to 8% and the development of attractive new assets that we believe will extend our runway of growth and create shareholder value. And with that, I will turn the call over to Dan.
Dan Schlanger:
Thanks, Jay and good morning everyone. We generated another year of solid growth in 2022 and we expect the strong operating trends across our business to continue as we see a long runway of 5G investment in the U.S. The elevated leasing activity across our customers contributed to another year of industry leading tower revenue growth in 2022 of nearly 6.5% and to 9% growth in our annual dividends per share. Before discussing the 2022 results and 2023 outlook, I want to draw your attention to some enhancements we made this quarter to the disclosure in our supplemental information package. In response to feedback we have heard from our investors, we provided organic billings growth detail by line of business for towers, small cells and fiber solutions to help investors better understand the composition of organic growth trends. This enhanced disclosure includes historical organic growth information going back to 2019. In addition to expanding our disclosure, we also reorganized the supplemental information package, in many cases, by line of business to make it easier for readers to follow. We hope you find this additional information and the new layout to be helpful. Now turning to the full year 2022 financial results on slide four of our earnings presentation, site rental revenues increased 10%, adjusted EBITDA growth was 14% and AFFO increased by 6% for the year. The 10% growth in site rental revenues included 5% growth in organic contribution to site rental billings, consisting of nearly 6.5% growth from towers, more than 5% growth in small cells and 2% growth in fiber solutions. Turning to page five, our full year 2023 outlook remains unchanged and includes site rental revenue growth of 4%, adjusted EBITDA growth of 3% and AFFO growth of 4%. We also expect organic billings growth of approximately 4% when adjusted for the impact of the previously disclosed Sprint cancellations. The 4% consolidated organic growth consists of 5% growth in towers, 8% growth in small cells and flat revenue in fiber solutions. As we discussed last quarter, we expect the rationalization of a portion of Sprint’s legacy network to result in some movements in our financial results that are not typical for our business. Our expectations for non-renewals and accelerated payments associated with this network rationalization activity are unchanged with approximately $30 million of new non-renewals and $160 million to $170 million of accelerated payments during 2023. We expect the majority of the non-renewals to occur in the first quarter and therefore impact year-over-year billings growth in each quarter this year. We expect the accelerated payments associated with this decommissioning activity and related services work to be concentrated in the second quarter. As a result, we expect the second quarter to represent the high watermark for adjusted EBITDA and AFFO in 2023. Turning to financing activities, we finished 2022 with leverage in line with our target of approximately 5x net debt to adjusted EBITDA. For full year 2023, our discretionary CapEx outlook is also unchanged with gross CapEx of $1.4 billion to $1.5 billion or approximately $1 billion net of expected prepaid rent. Based on our current backlog of small cells that includes a significant mix of co-location nodes, which have higher returns and require less capital relative to anchor builds, we expect to be able to finance our discretionary capital with debt while we are maintaining our investment grade credit profile. Earlier this month, we added to our strong balance sheet position when we issued $1 billion in senior unsecured notes with a 5% coupon to term out borrowings under our revolving credit facility. Following this financing transaction, we have more than 85% fixed rate debt, a weighted average maturity of over 8 years, limited maturities through 2024 and approximately $5.5 billion in available liquidity under our revolving credit facility. So to wrap up, we are excited about the strength of our business and our ability to execute on our strategy to deliver the highest risk-adjusted returns for our shareholders by growing our dividend over the long-term and investing in assets that will help drive future growth. We have delivered 9% compound annual and dividend per share growth since we established our 7% to 8% dividend per share growth target in 2017. And I believe that we are positioned well to return to 7% to 8% dividend per share growth as we move beyond the Sprint decommissioning impacts in 2025. With that, Kate, I’d like to open the call to questions.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] The first question is from Michael Rollins of Citi. Please go ahead.
Michael Rollins:
Thanks and good morning. And also, I just want to say thank you for the additional disclosures. Very helpful. Two topics if I could. First, on small cells, if you -- a little bit more color on the small cell leasing that you experienced during the fourth quarter? And then when you look at the backlog and consider the typical 18 to 36-month cycle that you described to install a small cell for your customers, what’s the opportunity to further accelerate that 10,000 deployment pace into ‘24 and 2025? Thanks.
Jay Brown:
You bet. Good morning, Mike. Thanks for the comments. On the first question around leasing, as you noted and I made a mention of this in my prepared remarks, we did increase the total number of nodes on air and under contract by 5,000 during the fourth quarter. So we didn’t sign any large deals with customers, but this is just ongoing activity that represents additional commitment for nodes beyond the large commitments that we previously announced. And to my comments around cell site densification, we believe we are going to continue to see this throughout the 5G cycle of upgrades and deployments and beyond as the carriers move past touching the sites, the tower sites that they are on and starting to look at densification of their network. And I think the activity that we saw in the fourth quarter is representative of exactly those longer term plans, which ties really closely to your second question around the backlog and the timeline. I think we see and have visibility to what they are going to need in their network, particularly in small cells, 24 to 36 months in advance of when these nodes will actually be put on air. And as I mentioned in my comments, we think the acceleration that we are seeing in 2023, doubling the number of nodes that we expect to put on air from 2022 to 10,000, we think that’s the start of an acceleration of growth and deployment of small cells. So I am not really ready to give guidance on how many we will put on in ‘24 and ‘25. But given the backlog and the timing, we do think this is the start of an acceleration of growth in that business.
Michael Rollins:
Thanks.
Operator:
The next question is from David Barden of Bank of America. Please go ahead.
David Barden:
Hi, guys. Good morning. Thanks so much for taking the questions. I guess along related lines, so two questions on this small cell topic, I guess, Jay, one is you have got these large scale relationships on small cells and as you say, visibility on these next 2 to 3 years. There are some carriers that you don’t have these relationships with. And I was wondering if you could elaborate a little bit on why you think that is? Is that because counterparty plans aren’t as evolved? They might be like less evolved in terms of the total size of their network build and not ready for densification or is it the other way around, which is that they have chosen to go the self-perform route and is that impacting the market opportunity that you foresee? I guess the second question would be related to with respect to what you do have in the backlog, how do we think about how you are budgeting for the upfront CapEx contribution portion of that? Is it a constant drumbeat that’s already known? Is it going to be on a case-by-case basis? Obviously, relevant to the cash flows and how we think about the runoff of prepaid rent amortization over the coming years? Thank you so much.
Jay Brown:
Good morning, Dave. On your first question around the agreements with the carriers, I think you are going to see over time in that business, a combination of large scale agreements with the carriers where whether they give us whole markets or a number of markets, we will probably see large-scale agreements with carriers over time. We expect those large-scale agreements to be lumpy. So we wouldn’t expect to see them every quarter or even every year, but it will be dependent upon the way that the carriers are thinking about the network and where the holes are and where the need is. I think there is value in some of those large-scale agreements, particularly with respect to securing the resources when concentrated in some -- in a few markets. So I think you will continue to see those. I also think you will continue to see what we saw in the fourth quarter, where carriers give us business and they are not at large scale and we do them in smaller chunks. So I think both are going to be there. I don’t think one or the other is representative of an underlying trend or nature of the business. The carriers, I think, as I say, will contract with us, I think on both basis. And I think over time, big picture and we have talked about this for years, because of our disciplined and rigorous approach to capital allocation and our view of where small cells are going to be needed, everywhere that small cells are needed is not necessarily attractive for us to put capital to work. So we’re going to pick and choose where we decide to put capital to work, which means the carriers are either going to need to find other providers who are willing to deploy capital at lower return thresholds than what we’re comfortable with or alternatively, they’ll self-perform. And today, we have seen the carriers self-perform in -- for the most part, in places where we were not willing to do it. And I think that will continue. You’ll continue to see self-perform for the carriers. Again, I don’t think that’s indicative of the business. I think it’s more indicative of the way that we think about return thresholds and our desire to both grow the dividend, elongate the timeline of returns and be thoughtful about the risks that we underwrite. On the second question around the backlog and carrier CapEx contribution, the way the agreements are structured relates to the -- pricing is related to the return based on the underlying cost to deploy nodes. So the CapEx will move, the CapEx contributions from the carriers will move in unison with the way that it’s -- the cost of actually deploying the networks that we’re deploying in the locations that we’re deploying them. So in a market where they are more expensive to deploy, the capital contribution is going to be higher. In places where it’s less expensive to deploy, those capital contributions will be less. I don’t think at this point beyond the guidance that we’ve given around CapEx for calendar year ‘23, we’re not going to provide guidance for ‘24 and ‘25. But as we give outlook for each individual year, we will give you a view of what’s the backlog, what do we think we’re going to turn on air and then break out for you what we think our total CapEx for the year is going to be and then what portion of that will be carrier CapEx, carrier contribution offsetting that play.
David Barden:
And then, Jay, just -- and maybe this is a question for Dan, but just to follow up real quick on how the mechanics work. So the CapEx comes in during the 24 to 36-month period, you recognize that contribution CapEx, but you don’t start amortizing that contribution until after the lease begins. And so there is a window between where you’ve got the money and then where you start amortizing it through the income statement. Is that right or wrong?
Jay Brown:
You’ve articulated it correctly. So we will receive cash as we go through the process of deploying the nodes and incurring capital expenditures. And then we would start to run it through the income statement once we’ve completed the work of -- the operational work necessary to complete and deliver the node to the carrier. At that point, we would then amortize it over the term of the lease. One thing I would I would say, and I’m not sure exactly what you’re trying to decipher in terms of this question. You’ve articulated it correctly. Maybe one additional piece of information that’s helpful, the backlog and the timeline to build when we talk about 24 to 36 months to build is our average. Obviously, there are nodes that take longer than that, [Technical Difficulty] construction period of time is relatively short. And it occurs at the back half of the last portion of that long-dated period of time. So the majority of the costs that we incur up until construction are soft cost, and they would be a smaller percentage of the overall CapEx. So you shouldn’t expect -- just to be extreme, you shouldn’t expect on a 36-month timeline to construct a node that we would have significant CapEx in the first 12 months of that and then receive carrier contributions at that time. Most of the actual outlays would be towards the back half of that process and the cash being received. So the timeline between receipt of cash and booking the node is not 36 months or not likely.
David Barden:
Alright. That’s helpful, thank you so much, Dan.
Operator:
The next question is from Simon Flannery of Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.
Simon Flannery:
Great. Thank you very much. Jay, thank you for the color on the phases of densification. That was helpful. Perhaps you could just help us with this transition as Verizon and T-Mobile wind down their 5G builds. Is it normal that we have like a pause and digest on the macro side? Or do they go straight into cell site densification on the macro side? Have you got any color on what the carriers are starting to think about once they -- particularly in the urban areas and suburban areas have already put up the antennas? And then just a related point, any comments, any updated thoughts on M&A? Obviously, it’s been a long time since you’ve done anything inorganic of scale, but there is always market opportunities out there. So I’d just love to get your latest thoughts on that.
Jay Brown:
Sure. On your first question, I don’t want to comment specifically on Verizon and T-Mobile. I’ll let them comment on their longer-term network plans. As I mentioned in my comments, we think about half of our sites have been touched for the mid-band spectrum at this point. They are obviously across the board, all of the carriers are working on touching the vast majority of the rest of those. And that will take some period of time in order for that to be accomplished. We’re 2 to 3 years into the work that’s been done to date, and it’s taken about that long just to touch half the sites with just the mid-band spectrum. So I think you’re going to see other spectrum bands that are going to be deployed for 5G on existing sites as well as the completion of the mid-band spectrum across the balance of the sites. Each of the carriers will think about how they deploy capital, how they budget that capital a little bit differently. But those offsets generally over a long period of time in the tower business have mostly offset each other to the point where we just haven’t seen a lot of movement and a lot of movements up and down in terms of the overall CapEx. And I think we will see in spending and focus on network deployment, I think we will see a similar thing during 5G. Thus far, as I made in my -- pointed to in my comments, thus far, 5G has looked relatively similar in terms of its deployment activity as what we saw when 2.5G, 3G, 4G were deployed where the carrier is focused on upgrading the sites that they were already on and then the discussions start to move towards the second half of it and start to think about infill sites. I think what’s different about 5G that we’re seeing, obviously, in our small cell business as alluded to previously on the increase in the number of nodes that we signed as well as the larger transactions that we announced previously, those infills are going to come from a combination of both tower sites and small cells. So I think the unique thing about 5G, we saw a little bit of this at the end of 4G, but the unique thing about 5G is the necessity in those infill sites to use both towers and small cells. And we’re starting to see the real beginnings of that as we start to accelerate. So similar to past and excited about our forward growth, excited about our 5% plus organic tower growth this year. We think there is a long runway of continuing at that level of north of 5% growth in tower site.
Simon Flannery:
And on the M&A?
Jay Brown:
Yes. On the M&A side, no change to the comments that we’ve made historically, we are focused on making sure we deploy capital at very high returns that increase the dividend and elongate our opportunity for growth. We have chosen based on the opportunities and price sets that have been in front of us and assets that we have looked at. We’ve made the decision that the best opportunity has been to invest in assets that we’re building. But we think about acquisitions the same way we think about CapEx. We look at it as what’s the best alternative for that use of capital. And thus far, we think the best opportunity at scale for the use of capital has been to deploy fiber and small cells. And so we will continue to look, and we would be open to it if we found an asset that was -- met our return criteria for what I articulated previously of growing the dividend and elongating the growth rate could be interesting to us and -- but really excited about the opportunity for us to continue to invest capital to deploy small cells.
Simon Flannery:
Thanks a lot.
Operator:
The next question is from Philip Cusick of JPMorgan. Please go ahead.
Philip Cusick:
Hi, guys. Thanks. How are you?
Jay Brown:
Good morning.
Philip Cusick:
Thanks for your time. Just to follow-up on some of the small cell stuff. How many do you think will be upgraded versus about half are done today? And anything shifting in the small cell expansion mix of overlay versus 5G -- overlay of 5G versus new locations? And when do you think infill should start to ramp? Thank you.
Jay Brown:
Yes. On the tower side, I think we will see the second half of the other half of the towers be upgraded to mid-band spectrum. Took about 2 to 3 years to do the first half. So I think that’s probably a reasonable assumption that it will take that long to do the second half of the assets roughly on the tower side. I think the announcements that we’ve made previously with small cell commitments to be constructed are already a combination of overlaying on nodes that they were previously on with other technologies and upgrading those two technologies as well as infilling sites along the same fiber, increasing the number of nodes per mile, if you will, in a given geography. We’re already seeing infill and densification on that front. We’ve talked about in the two large announcements that we made with the T-Mobile nodes, the committed T-Mobile nodes that the vast majority of those were co-located on existing fiber. So those largely represent upgrades and densification and then a mix of about 50-50 on the Verizon nodes, a combination of upgrades, co-location on existing fiber. And then the other component would be where we’re building new sites and new locations. So I think, we will continue to see a mix as we said in our comments. For 2023, we think the vast majority of the nodes that will turn on air will be on existing fiber.
Philip Cusick:
Thanks, guys. And one more if I can. On services, talk about the current pace, is this sort of a normal level, do you think or are there particular projects driving the strength? Thank you.
Dan Schlanger:
No, it’s a pretty normal pace, Phil. And the only thing I would point out is something I said in my prepared remarks that the second quarter will likely be the high watermark because we have some decommissioning work that comes with services activity that will hit in the second quarter, but a relatively normal pace where we are today.
Philip Cusick:
That’s helpful. Thank you.
Operator:
The next question is from Ric Prentiss of Raymond James. Please go ahead.
Ric Prentiss:
Thanks. Good morning, everybody.
Jay Brown:
Good morning, Ric.
Ric Prentiss:
First, echo Mike’s comments. Thanks so much for the extra detail on the segments, but also hope you and the team are okay with all the weather issues in Houston.
Jay Brown:
We’re doing well, came through the storm well, but there were a lot of damage in the city.
Ric Prentiss:
Great to hear you’re okay. I want to follow-up on the small cell side, obviously, a comment today. I think previously, you had said the $30 million Sprint cancellation churn item was maybe $20 million small cells, $10 million fiber. How many more should we expect that $20 million equates to? And then was it a total of 5,000 nodes, they were going to turn off over a multiple year period, is that still the case?
Jay Brown:
Yes, thanks. You are correct. We did say there is about $30 million of -- I’m sorry, $40 million of churn that we expect in our fiber segment and split about equally between small cells and fiber solutions in calendar year ‘23. The churn expected, you correctly stated, of about 5,000, we expect about half of those to churn in calendar year 2023. The balance would be in ‘24 and beyond.
Ric Prentiss:
Okay. Now not only have the extra details, it seems like there is maybe a normal level of churn within small cell. What should we think that -- is that kind of like a 1% to 2% normal level of churn small cell that we should be baking into our long-term forecast?
Jay Brown:
Yes, I think that’s probably right, somewhere in the neighborhood of 1% to 2%. I mean, honestly, to date, we really have not seen hardly any churn in that business, except for the event of the consolidation of Sprint into T-Mobile. Churn has been near zero or very low other than that event. So -- but I think long term, it probably plays itself out like towers. So if you’re thinking about your long-term model, assuming churn of 1% to 2% is probably right.
Ric Prentiss:
Great. And final question for me, you mentioned small cell, look for profitable fiber solution items. T-Mobile has talked about their high-speed Internet project they might move beyond fixed wireless access and consider buying capacity of fiber from other people. Is that a type of profitable business in the areas where you’ve been deploying fiber and small cells that the T-Mobile might be an interesting return case?
Jay Brown:
It’s possible. A good portion of our fiber business is leases that we have with the carriers where they use our fiber. So depending on the locations that T-Mobile were to desire, then our assets could be very attractive for that. But it’s a case-by-case, location-by-location analysis that would have to be done.
Ric Prentiss:
Okay, fair enough. Thanks. Stay well.
Jay Brown:
You too.
Operator:
The next question is from Brandon Nispel of KeyBanc Capital Markets. Please go ahead.
Brandon Nispel:
Hi, guys. Thanks for taking the questions. And appreciate the disclosures as well. I was hoping you could talk us through the run rate in terms of tower core leasing throughout ‘23. Is first half any stronger than second half? And maybe the other way to ask the question is, as you look at the backlog of new lease applications that you’re receiving today, are those trending up or down at this point? Thanks.
Dan Schlanger:
Yes. Thanks, Brandon. The run rate tower leasing is relatively flat through the whole year. There may be a little bit of a skew towards the front half, but it’s not anything I would say is going to impact the numbers very much at all. And that would imply that the applications are relatively flat as well. So I would -- if you’re trying to figure out how to model it or how to think through the activity levels and the leasing in 2023, I’d say it’s pretty even quarter-to-quarter.
Jay Brown:
Your second question on the trends we’re seeing in the backlog, no change in what we’re seeing from what we talked about in October, so seeing good demand across all three of our business lines, towers, small cells and fiber solutions. The pipeline, you heard my comments in my prepared remarks, but we think by the back half of this year, we’re going to exit 2023 with fiber solutions back at kind of a 3% growth area. And tower leasing, as Dan just mentioned, we think that’s going to be really similar across the year. So not back half loaded, but level loaded across the year. And then small cells, we obviously had a good fourth quarter in ‘22. And we will see what builds over the course of ‘23 and update you as we get orders on that front.
Brandon Nispel:
Thank you.
Operator:
The next question is from Greg Williams of Cowen. Please go ahead.
Greg Williams:
Great. Thanks. Just wanted to touch on the M&A comments you mentioned, and you choose to build rather than buy per se. Does that imply that private fiber multiples just remain stubbornly high? And are they coming down to any degree? And do you foresee them coming down in the next few quarters? Second question is just actually on cable. We’ve been fairly dismissive that they are going to be touching the towers per se, but more on CBRS deployment on their own air strands, but there is possible conversations of cable getting more aggressive and a more macro facilities-based network and just wanted to see here if you had any updates on conversations with cable? Thanks.
Jay Brown:
Sure. On your first question, I would say it’s -- on some level, it’s probably a function of price. It’s more likely a function of our targeted approach to which assets we want to own. In order for a fiber asset acquisition to be attractive to us, it needs to be in dense urban areas. It needs to have high fiber strand count, and we need to have visibility that those areas are going to have or likely to have significant lease-up for small cells. And the reason why you haven’t seen us do any fiber acquisitions in the last 5 years is much more related to the fact that we haven’t seen anything meet those criteria than, frankly, it is price. We just haven’t seen the opportunity to acquire assets that meet the criteria that’s going to drive long-term growth from the wireless carriers from the deployment of small cells. And we are going to remain disciplined on that front, continue to believe the vast majority of the fiber that we will accumulate over time will be as a result of building it rather than acquiring it because we just don’t see a lot of assets in the market that meet our criteria for assets that we would want to own. On your second question, I believe that cable over the long-term is a very attractive opportunity for us to increase our growth rates and think that we will see leasing from the cable operators. We will see some of that on macro side. Frankly, I think we will probably see more of that in our small cell business, given the places that they tend to deploy infrastructure as they think about the density of population and users. So, I think it’s more likely that we will benefit from the deployment of network by the cable operators using their various spectrum bands. We will see -- we are more likely, I think to see that in small cells over a long period of time than we are in macro sites, but do think macro sites will benefit from cable.
Greg Williams:
Well. Thank you.
Operator:
The next question is from Nick Del Deo of SVB MoffettNathanson. Please go ahead.
Nick Del Deo:
Hey. Good morning guys. Jay, you noted that about half the sites on your towers have been upgraded with mid-band 5G spectrum, very interesting statistics. So, thanks for sharing that. I guess do you see any meaningful differences in that percentage between more urban towers versus suburban towers versus more rural towers, or is it reasonably consistent across the board? And I guess maybe to build on some of the previous comments you have made, what does your work suggest with respect to how high that number needs to get before carrier starts to pivot more noticeably towards co-locations?
Jay Brown:
Sure. On the location point, I probably would not draw a lot of distinction between central business districts and urban, more suburban areas that are densely populated. The usage, as you think about it on a per subscriber basis, while there is some differences over time, there has been less of a differentiation by the consumer in terms of usage. And therefore, the network reflects that. So, when we see the carriers deploy the first phase, there are a mix of dense suburban markets as well as what you would think of as the most dense part markets down in the central business district. We will see leasing in both of those kind of areas initially. Less likely for us to see that leasing early -- in the early phases of deployment of a generational change. Less likely to see that in more rural applications or rural assets. So, we have not seen that as much. To the second part of your question, how far do they need to go before they start to do infill, it’s -- some of it is a matter of how they allocate their capital and the need to provide geographic coverage. The other part of the answer is where do they see traffic growth and where are the holes in the network that they need to do infill in order to improve the network. And there is not a big picture answer really, frankly, to give to that question. It varies market-by-market. And so in some markets, 2 years or 3 years ago at the very beginning of the launch of 5G, they already knew where they were going to need infill sites. We started seeing small cells and demand for small cells as they started to think about infill long before even devices were out and usage has started to increase. So, they had a view based on population usage, their customer base, etcetera, that there was going to need to be an infill of sites in certain geographies. And so in other geographies, we haven’t seen that yet. So, it really is -- it’s not a big picture question that I could give you an answer that would be helpful. But it’s driven by underlying data usage. And that is why so often in my prepared remarks, I talk about what we are seeing in terms of data usage, what the carriers are seeing in terms of data usage because that long-term is the driver of the need of our infrastructure. And we believe that macro trend is very healthy and will continue. And we will continue to see the need for both macro sites and small cells from an infill standpoint.
Nick Del Deo:
Okay. That’s helpful. And then maybe one more if I can. Just thinking back, it’s been a little over 2 years since you struck your deal with DISH. It was a new and unique structure on the tower side and had a fiber component to it. Now that it’s been in force for some time, I was just wondering if you could comment on your satisfaction with that novel structure you chose and the degree to which it’s accomplishing and what you hope to accomplish?
Jay Brown:
Well, first, we are doing everything we can to help DISH get launched, and we have got teams of people that are very focused on that. DISH has been working hard to get their nationwide network deployed. And I hope that they would say about us, we have been a good partner to help them get there. I know our teams are focused on it 24/7, 365. So, it’s been a good partnership with them, and we are happy to have them as a customer. It has accomplished what we expected. We expected that the fact that we got them locked up first would mean that our network would benefit from them designing their network around our existing assets. We have seen that play out. We believe we have gotten an outsized share of the overall opportunity as they deploy the network. And I think the nature of our agreement with them, we have the opportunity to continue to get an outsized share of their network deployment. So, I think in that respect, it has accomplished exactly what we had hoped. And as we said at the time, and I think this has played out, our visibility to that network with the combination of providing fiber as a part of their backbone as well as providing tower sites has deepened that relationship and deepened our understanding of how they are thinking about the deployment of the network and probably led to us being able to capture more opportunities than we would have had if we were towers only.
Nick Del Deo:
Okay. That’s great. Thank you, Jay.
Operator:
The next question is from Jonathan Atkin of RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead.
Jonathan Atkin:
Thanks. So, you mentioned half of your tower sites have been upgraded with mid-band. And I think it’s implicit in the answer to one of the earlier questions, but do you expect that to get to 100%, or is there an end state that’s maybe a little less than 100% in terms of portion of sites that have 5G mid-band?
Jay Brown:
Hey. Good morning Jon. I don’t know that it will get all the way to exactly 100%, but we would expect, over time, it will get pretty close to about 100% of the network will be upgraded, yes.
Jonathan Atkin:
And then did you see -- on just the towers, did you give a split between colos versus amendments? And if not, can you tell us what that number was? And then maybe what you anticipate that mix to be, again, just in your tower portfolio towards end of this year?
Jay Brown:
Yes. Consistent with my comments around the vast majority of the activity is on sites that they are already on. The vast majority of the total activity that we are seeing from the carriers is amendments to existing sites where they are adding additional equipment. And therefore, we are getting rent added to the leases that we already had. We are seeing some first-time installations on sites as a part of their desire to infill. But the vast majority of the activity that we are seeing would be from amendments.
Jonathan Atkin:
So, no pivot from 3Q into 4Q in terms of that mix shift? I know it’s majority amendments, but no noticeable change?
Jay Brown:
No, we didn’t -- we haven’t seen any change from kind of middle of last year. And certainly, as we are sitting here today in early 2023, haven’t seen any change from our expectations when we laid them out in October of last year.
Jonathan Atkin:
And then lastly, in the fiber business, a lot of -- so non-mobile tenants, a lot of products that you listed around wavelengths, Ethernet, fiber, managed services. And just given the growth that you are seeing there and the mix of revenues that it represents, any way to give us a little bit of color as to what the different demand drivers that you are seeing, which products are maybe getting more traction on, say, services versus others?
Jay Brown:
Yes. The biggest driver there is the increased traffic, overall data traffic that’s happening in the market. I mean our business and our focus for customers is mostly large enterprise, universities, hospitals. And in those markets, the primary driver of what drives our revenue growth is data traffic and the movement of -- in essence, the movement of data among their facilities, locations, offices, etcetera. And that’s the biggest corollary.
Jonathan Atkin:
Lastly, just any update on Edge? And it’s been a number of years since you announced the Vapor IO investments and any kind of updates on your thoughts as it pertains to the sorts of opportunities and traction, gains thus far?
Jay Brown:
Sure. We continue to be optimistic about the long-term opportunities around Edge. I feel like our assets are really well positioned to capture that opportunity. In order for Edge to work, you have got to have connectivity, and you have got to have power. And our hub sites for small cells and our towers are both ideal locations for aggregating the traffic out of mobile networks at the Edge. And think that opportunity will develop as 5G ultimately develops. I think you probably heard us say a number of times that the first benefit from the activities that will ultimately lead to the benefit around the Edge, we think we will see in spades in the deployment of small cells and a lot of activity related to it with small cells. And then the follow-on will be the opportunity around the Edge. So, we certainly believe it’s there. And I think we are really well positioned to capture that opportunity when it does materialize as the applications that need increased data and compute power move to the very edge of mobile networks, when that -- when those applications are starting to be used both on an industrial level as well as the consumer level, feel like our assets are really well positioned to capture that opportunity.
Jonathan Atkin:
Thank you.
Operator:
And the final question is from Jonathan Chaplin of New Street Research.
Jonathan Chaplin:
Thanks for taking the question guys. Just a quick housekeeping question first on small cells. So, it’s a backlog of 60,000, and it takes 24 months to 36 months to go through the construction process. Does that suggest like a very material acceleration from the 10,000 that you are going to do this year in ‘24 and ‘25? Like you are going to get through 60,000 over the course of the next 3 years?
Jay Brown:
Yes. We didn’t provide specific guidance on when we will get that done. But as I mentioned in my comments, we think that ‘23 is the start of an acceleration of growth in small cells. So, it does imply that there will be an acceleration beyond the 10,000 nodes per year that we expect to do in calendar year ‘23.
Dan Schlanger:
But I wouldn’t -- I would caution you not to expect that because we have those in our backlog right now that 24 months now or 36 months from now, all of them will be built. It is an average. And so I would not just make the leap that after 2023, there is 50,000 left, which means that we have to do 25,000 in each of ‘24 and ‘25. That’s not the way the business rolls out. It’s an average, and it takes some time in order even to get into that average as we go back and forth with our customers to cite the actual small cell nodes where they need to be built. So, as Jay said, we believe there can be an acceleration, but I would caution you against expecting it’s going to jump to 25,000 nodes each year of ‘24 and ‘25.
Jonathan Chaplin:
Can you give me just a little bit more color on why it isn’t sort of complete within 3 years? Is it the carriers are really looking sort of 4 years or 5 years out in terms of what they are contracting for small cells today?
Jay Brown:
Sure. When we did the two agreements with Verizon and T-Mobile, where they made large commitments, those were multiyear commitments. So, the expectation was that they would identify the nodes while we had ideas on what markets they were going to use. The actual location of the node goes through an identification process over time. And so we do not expect in that backlog while it’s committed, contractually committed and the rent will be there, it doesn’t speak to. As Dan was saying, that’s why you can’t take the backlog and say, okay, all of that backlog will be completed in 24 months or 36 months.
Jonathan Chaplin:
Okay. Got it. And then is there a way to contextualize what DISH is contributing to growth at the moment? And have they reached a steady state with you at this point, or do you think that their contribution could still accelerate for you?
Jay Brown:
Well, I think we will continue to see the benefit of DISH deploying their network, but being really specific with the number of sites and their percentage contribution, we do our very best to stay away from giving that level of specificity among any of our customers in their network and just let them speak to the number of sites and where they are in their deployment cycle.
Jonathan Chaplin:
Okay. And then last one for me. You spoke about the sort of the three phases of network deployment. And the first phase is lots of sites of amendments and then just sort of the next big phase is moving to. I would assume, fewer sites a bit with 4x or 5x the revenue per site. As you look through the sort of the multiyear period that -- as you work through these phases, is the revenue growth you get similar in the first phase and the second phase and the third phase, or is it heavily weighted towards the first phase just because of the number of sites that they are touching?
Jay Brown:
Our experience has been that revenue growth over those various phases stays relatively stable and similar. As we talk about our long-term expectation of -- around growth and organic growth in towers, we have said that we think that stays maybe a little bit above the 5% level. We think we can sustain that for a period of time. It also ties into our long-term target of being able to grow the dividend 7% to 8%. So, we think there is an elongated runway of growth that’s driven by that top line opportunity. As the carriers go through the various phases of deployment, we see good opportunity to lease both towers and small cells, and we think that extends the runway of growth. And as we look at kind of the current environment that we are in, really excited about where we are and excited about the top line growth that we are seeing and the consistency of the demand from our customers to need to improve their networks and ask for additional leases on our assets across all three of our businesses.
Jonathan Chaplin:
Great. Thanks very much guys.
Jay Brown:
You bet. Well, thanks everybody for joining. Kate thanks for your help on the call this morning. I do want to thank our team as we wrap up 2022. I realize everyone is already really focused on what we are able to deliver in 2023, but I did want to take the opportunity to congratulate our team for a job well done in 2022, navigating to a great outcome through some pretty difficult challenges over the course of the year. You all did a great job for our customers, and I know they appreciate it. So, thank you to the team and excited about what we will do in ‘23, and look forward to talking to everyone next quarter.
Operator:
The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today’s presentation. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Good day, everyone, and welcome to Crown Castle's Q3 2022 Earnings Call. As a reminder, today's call is being recorded. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Ben Lowe, Senior VP of Corporate Finance. Please go ahead, sir.
Ben Lowe:
Great. Thank you, Melinda, and good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us today as we discuss our third quarter 2022 results. With me on the call this morning, are Jay Brown, Crown Castle's, Chief Executive Officer; and Dan Schlanger, Crown Castle's, Chief Financial Officer. To aid, the discussion, we have posted supplemental materials in the Investors section of our website at crowncastle.com that will be referenced throughout the call this morning. This conference call will contain forward-looking statements, which are subject to certain risks, uncertainties and assumptions, and actual results may vary materially from those expected. Information about potential factors which could affect our results is available in the press release and the Risk Factors section of the company's SEC filings. Our statements are made as of today, October 20, 2022, and we assume no obligation to update any forward-looking statements. In addition, today's call includes discussions of certain non-GAAP financial measures. Tables reconciling these non-GAAP financial measures are available in the supplemental information package in the Investors section of the company's website at crowncastle.com. So with that, let me turn the call over to Jay.
Jay Brown:
(Audit Start) Thanks, Ben, and thank you, everyone, for joining us on the call this morning. As you saw from our third quarter results and the 6.5% increase to our dividend, we are seeing the benefits of a strong leasing environment, as we support our customers’ growth initiatives with their deployment of 5G. With this increase, we have grown dividends per share at a compound annual growth rate of 9%, since we established our long-term growth target of 7% to 8% per year in 2017, returning over $10 billion or 20% of our current market capitalization to shareholders over that period of time. Our customers have focused on utilizing towers during their initial deployment of 5G, resulting in the second consecutive year of 6% organic revenue growth in our tower business as we continue to outpace the industry. We expect this momentum to carry into 2023 with another year of solid organic growth of at least 5% for our tower business. In addition, we expect to double the rate of small cell deployments next year, compared to the 5,000 nodes we expect to install this year to meet the growing demand for our customers, as 5G networks will require small cells at scale. For fiber solutions, we expect revenue to be flat in 2023, compared to 2022, as a result of several discrete items that Dan will discuss later. We expect revenue growth to return to approximately 3% by the end of the year. Consistent with what we have previously disclosed, we also expect the rationalization of a portion of Sprint's legacy network by T-Mobile to have some near-term impacts on our financial results, without altering our long-term growth potential of our strategy. We continue to believe the total impact of the Sprint network rationalization will be approximately $275 million of annualized churn, concluding in 2025. As I'll speak to in just a moment, I see tremendous opportunities ahead of us, giving us confidence in our ability to deliver on our long-term target of growing dividends 7% to 8% per year. However, with $225 million of remaining Sprint churn and $140 million of additional run-rate interest expense, we expect dividend per share growth in 2024 and 2025 to be below our long-term target. Looking back over the last several decades in the wireless industry, we have experienced periods of network rationalization by our customers, following consolidation events. In each of those instances, we saw increased demand for our assets over times, as our customers reinvested the synergies gained from those combinations back into their networks to further improve their competitive positions, and keep pace with wireless data growth. I expect we'll see a similar dynamic play out this time around. As such, over the long-term, I believe our strategy and unmatched portfolio of 40,000 towers, 115,000 small cells on air under contract and 85,000 route miles of fiber concentrated in top U.S. markets have positioned Crown Castle to deliver significant value to shareholders for many years to come. We are focused on the U.S. because we believe it represents the best market in the world for wireless infrastructure ownership when considering both growth and risk. The relative strength of the U.S. market has been clear to us during times of global economic prosperity. And I believe that gap and performance is widening further in current challenging macroeconomic environment. The operating conditions underlying our shared infrastructure model have been better in the U.S. than any other market in the world. We have benefited over time from persistent growth and mobile data that has required hundreds of billions of dollars of network investment by our customers. As a result of the quality of the networks and the user experience enabled by this level of investment, U.S. consumers have used their wireless devices more and more and have been willing and able to pay for that improving mobile experience. In turn, the wireless carriers have taken the higher cash flows generated from their customers and invested even more in the networks and the cycle continues. When we assess the global landscape for wireless infrastructure ownership, we do not see evidence of that same virtuous cycle in any other market. The combination of persistent growth and mobile data and the value we deliver to our customers by providing a low cost shared infrastructure solution has enabled us to consistently generate growth through various macroeconomic cycles. Further, I believe our core value proposition of reducing the overall cost of deploying and operating communications networks is even more compelling for our customers in times of increasing capital costs. Adding to our positive view of the opportunity we have in the U.S., I believe we are still in the early stages of 5G development, providing a long runway of growth and demand for our comprehensive communications infrastructure, offering across towers, small cells and fiber. Similar to other generational network upgrades, we expect 5G to drive sustained growth in our tower business as our customers add equipment to our 40,000 towers. We also believe 5G will be different as it will require the deployment of small cells at scale to increase the capacity and density of wireless networks, as more spectrum deployed across macro towers will not be sufficient to keep up with the growth in mobile data demand. As a result of the requirement to build out this denser network, we believe the duration and magnitude of 5G investment will likely exceed prior network investment cycles, further extending our long-term growth opportunity. With this view in mind, we have invested $6 billion of capital in high capacity fiber and small cells that are concentrated in top U.S. markets. That capital has a weighted average life of approximately five years and is yielding more than 7% today. With more than 60,000 contracted small cell nodes in our backlog, including a record number of colocation nodes, we expect the yield to increase over time as we put those small cells on air. In 2023, we expect to double our small cell deployments, with over half of the nodes co-located on existing fiber. With the increased mix and colocation, we expect our net CapEx to increase by only 10% over 2022 levels, reflecting attractive incremental lease up return. The resulting incremental returns are consistent with our expectation for small cell co-location to drive two tenant system returns to low-double digit yields on invested capital, just like we have achieved in towers. As we proven out the value proposition for our tower assets over time, those assets now generate a yield on invested capital of approximately 12% with meaningful capacity to support additional growth. Looking at how well our overall strategy is performing, since 2017, we have increased our consolidated return on invested capital by 160 basis points to 9.5% and returned over $10 billion to shareholders through our dividend that has increased at a compound annual growth rate of 9%, while also investing $7 billion of capital into attractive assets we believe will generate returns well in excess of our cost of capital and contributed to dividend growth in the future. I believe that the combination highlights how compelling and differentiated our strategy is. We provide investors with the most exposure to the development of next generation that works with our comprehensive offering of towers, small cells, and fiber, a pure play U.S. wireless infrastructure provider with exposure to the best growth and the lowest risk market, a compelling total return profile with a current yield of nearly 5%, and a long-term annual dividend growth target of 7% to 8% and the development of an attractive – of attractive new assets that we believe will extend our runway of growth and shareholder value creation. (Audit End) In the context of our 6.5% dividend per share growth this year, it is remarkable to consider that the underlay -- to consider the underlying strength of our business can absorb the significant headwinds of interest expense increases, and Sprint cancellations in the near term without disrupting the long-term growth of the business. I believe this durability of the underlying demand trends we see in the U.S. that provides significant visibility into the anticipated future growth of our business, the deliberate decisions we have made to reduce the risks associated with our strategy and our history of steady execution makes Crown Castle an excellent investment that will generate compelling returns over time. And with that, I'll turn the call over to Dan.
Dan Schlanger :
Thanks, Jay and good morning, everyone. We delivered another solid quarter of results in the third quarter, as our customers are actively deploying 5G at scale. Our strong operating results this year are helping absorb the impact from higher interest rates, leaving our 2022 AFFO growth expectations unchanged. Looking ahead to 2023, we expect overall leasing activity to remain healthy, resulting in growth and cash flow flows that supports the 6.5% dividend increase we announced yesterday. Before I walk through some of the moving pieces within the 2023 outlook, I want to briefly discuss the third quarter results. Turning to Page 4, core organic growth of more than 5% benefited from robust tower growth of 7% and included 4% small cell growth and 1% growth in fiber solutions. The strong top-line growth contributed to 10% growth in adjusted EBITDA and 5% growth in AFFO as our operating results were partially offset by higher interest expense. Turning to our outlook on Page 5, our expectations for 2022 remain unchanged and for 2023 we expect 4% site rental revenue growth, 3% adjusted EBITDA growth and 4% AFFO growth. As you saw on the earnings release, there are a few moving pieces within the 2023 outlook that are not typical. So let me spend a minute walking through those components. Consistent with what we previously disclosed, we expect T-Mobile to cancel a portion of their tower, small cell and fiber leases over the next few years related to the consolidation of a legacy Sprint network. We expect to see an impact of this network rationalization in our financial results in 2023. As Jay mentioned, we continue to expect total churn from the T-Mobile Sprint network consolidation to be approximately $275 million, consisting of tower churn of approximately $200 million recurring in 2025, as well as approximately $45 million of small cell churn and $30 million in fiber solutions over the next three years. As you saw in the press release, we expect a reduction of $30 million in small cell and fiber solutions run-rate revenue in 2023 from the Sprint cancellations. Based on our customer agreements, T-Mobile was obligated to pay the remaining contracted revenue on those sites at the time of cancellation, resulting expected cash payments of $165 million to 2023. Given the nature of the churn and the associated payment of accelerated future contracted revenue, and to make the comparisons more helpful, we've excluded the $135 million net benefit and 2023 from the organic growth comp group comparisons in the remainder of this discussion. Turning our focus to the fundamental trends we expect in 2023 on Page 6, we anticipate another year of solid tower growth, complemented by a doubling of our small cell activity, as we expect to install 10,000 nodes in 2023, up from 5,000 this year. With respect to fiber solutions, we expect underlying activity growth to be offset by items that contributed 2022 revenue that are not forecast to recur in 2023, as well as the rollover impact from approximately $10 million of Sprint churn that occurred in 2022. As a result of these discrete items, we expect fiber solutions revenue to be consistent with 2022 levels, and believe the business will return to our previously discussed 3% per year revenue growth going forward. Putting those components together, we expect 2023 organic contribution to site rental buildings of approximately $360 million, or $225 million, excluding the $135 million net benefit from the Sprint cancellation, the $225 million of organic growth consists of 5% growth and towers, 8% growth in small cells and flat revenue and fiber solutions. Turning to Page 7, 2023 AFFO growth is expected to be a $100 million to $145 million, which includes the $135 million net benefit of the Sprint cancellation, a $140 million increase in interest expense, and $20 million of cost increases above typical levels due to labor and other inflationary related expenses. The rapid rise in interest rates has accelerated the increase in interest expense we included in our long-term planning, causing some near term headwinds, but not impacting our capital allocation decisions. We believe our investment grade balance sheet is well positioned with 85% fixed rate debt, a weighted average maturity of approximately nine years limited debt maturities through 2024 and more than $4.5 billion in available liquidity under our revolving credit facility. We ended the third quarter with 4.9 times debt-to-adjusted EBITDA and expect to remain around five times through 2023, as we plan to fund our discretionary CapEx with incremental debt capacity generated by growth in cash flows for full year 2023. To that point, we expect our discretionary CapEx to increase in 2023 to approximately $1.4 billion to $1.5 billion from approximately $1.2 billion this year. Out of our total capital expenditures next year, approximately $300 million is expected to be spent in towers and $1.1 billion to $1.2 billion in our fiber segment. Consolidated capital expenditures net of prepaid rent contributions, are expected to be approximately $1 billion in 2023, compared to $900 million this year. As Jay mentioned, a relatively small increase in net capital expenditures in 2023 demonstrates the benefits of our co-location model, even while we continue to invest in new assets that we believe will contribute to long-term growth. Wrapping up, we're excited about the opportunity we see, as our customers continue to deploy 5G in the U.S. We believe focusing on the U.S. provides the highest risk adjusted return for our shareholders, as our portfolio of towers, small cells and fiber provides unmatched exposure to the best market in the world for communication infrastructure ownership. Since we made significant investments in the small cell and fiber portion of our business in 2017, we have delivered 9% dividend per share growth while continuing to invest organically in new assets to take advantage of the opportunity ahead of us. The ongoing 5G investment cycle and the persistent growth in mobile data demand, combined with the inherent durability of our business model and our low risk balance sheet, provide us confidence in our ability to deliver on our long-term 7% to 8% dividend per share growth target, and create a compelling total return opportunity consisting of current yield, and future growth. And with that, Melinda, I'd like to open the call to questions.
Operator:
(Audit Start) Thank you, sir. [Operator Instructions] And we'll take our first question from Simon Flannery of Morgan Stanley.
Simon Flannery :
Great, thank you very much. Thanks for all that color. On the small cell business, you've got a large backlog here. Could you give us a little bit more color about pacing up the build and to what extent, there are supply chain issues that you need to take into account? And is it possible that you can take this rate above 10,000? I think in years past, there was a hope that it could continue to accelerate from these levels. And any updated thoughts on the demand side, given the rise of fixed wireless system more interest in densification, even then six or 12 months ago? Thank you.
Jay Brown :
Good morning, Simon. Thanks for the questions. As we mentioned, Dan, and I think both mentioned in our comments, we would expect in 2023, we're going to double the number of nodes that we put on air compared to 2022, so seeing an acceleration from that. And then given the number of nodes that we have in the backlog and the significant, somewhat recent commitments that we received from Verizon and T-Mobile have 50,000 nodes to be put on air. It certainly pretends and a continued acceleration as we go into 2024 and beyond. So that's what we currently have in the backlog. I think I would draw out from that a little bit and based on what we're seeing for the deployment of 5G and the densification that's required in the networks, we think there's going to be a lot of demand for small cells well beyond just what's currently in the backlog. Some of that is probably drawn from our experience as nodes or going on air and meeting the need in the network, solving the -- solving some of the gaps and covering some of the increase in data traffic that we're seeing discrete locations in the network where small cells have been placed, and how well that works as a network strategy to reuse the spectrum on both macro sites and small cells. And then also our view of where data traffic is going to grow too, the combination of those two things both are actually experienced, and where we think traffic is going portends a continued increase in the overall number of nodes that are going to need to be built inside of these networks. Supply chain challenges have certainly occurred. I think our team has done a really good job working closely with the carriers to navigate through those supply chain challenges. I don't want to sound like there are no challenges to that, because there have been numerous challenges, but our team has been able to navigate those without impacting our expectation of node builds. And as we sit here today, I don't think that will impact our ability to get to 10,000 or more nodes in 2023, as we put into our guidance. So I think that's what I would point to an answer to your question.
Simon Flannery :
Great, thank you so much.
Operator:
Next, we'll hear from Jon Atkin of RBC.
Jon Atkin :
Thanks very much. I was interested in, if you can comment on your ability to adjust for higher CPI, either in your new contracts, new co-locations, or your amendments or even any provisions under your existing MOAs.
Jay Brown :
Yeah, John. Typically, in our revenues that are on the books currently, the vast majority of those revenues are fixed escalator and not CPI-based. I would note the same thing is true on the cost side of the equation, our largest costs being our ground leases, which also have a similar characteristic of a high percentage of those being fixed escalator. So for the majority of the current run-rate cash flows were fixed at both the revenue line and then down at the largest item that affects direct margins. Then on the balance sheet side, we obviously have more than 80% of the debt, that's fixed currently. So the current cash flow stream is largely fixed with regards to CPI and implications from inflationary pressure. As you think about the go-forward, when we contract with customers, we're typically doing some level of three to five years of a framework under which they'll find new leases. So we're in the middle of that at any given point. And when we reach the natural end of those contracted periods of time with a customer that relates to new sites that they will go on, then we have the opportunity to think about okay, what will the appropriate escalation provisions be in that next set of contracts. And as we have in the past, we balance out the benefits of doing floating rate versus doing a fixed rate on those contracts.
Jon Atkin :
And then, just on small cells, given what you talked a little bit about the backlog which the conversion of that backlog seems to be kind of accelerating. Are we too assume that it will be more of a backend weighted contribution to the top line for 2023 for small cells?
Jay Brown :
Yes, it will be backend loaded during calendar year 2023. We will get the benefit of getting those nodes on air into the run-rate as we go into 2024, but the actual work and the completion of those nodes coming on air and then turning into cash paying nodes that will be backend loaded in the calendar year.
Jon Atkin :
And then given -- finally, just given the higher discretionary CapEx that you're projecting for 2023, any -- if you maybe just review a little bit, I know Dan mentioned this at the end, but kind of how you fund a dividend if it's going to stay at a similar level next year, sounds like you will need to kind of lever up using the revolver or how do we think about the sources of funding a similarly sized dividend for next year, if that's what the board decides?
Jay Brown :
I just want to make sure I answer the question you're asking, are you referring to the dividend in 2024 or the dividend in 2023?
Jon Atkin :
'23.
Jay Brown :
So we thought about sizing the dividend. We did the same process that we do have done historically, and I'll go back to kind of 2017 at the end of '17, when we increased our targets to 7% to 8%. We look at the upcoming when we get to this time of year in the October timeframe, we look at the upcoming year and we look at what will the cash flow generation of the business be and then what do we expect the run-rate of cash flows to be by the time we exit the year. So the dividend that we size is the increase of 6.5% considers where do we think we're going to exit the next 12-month period of time as we roll around to October of next year and we look at the uplift that will occur in that run-rate, and the dividend that we gave the 6.5% increase is size, so that when we roll around to October, that's basically the run-rate of the business. The other benefit that we got, the other thing that we're considering is what is the cash flow characteristic during that 12-month period of time. And in the case of the next 12 months, we're obviously benefiting from the payment of T-Mobile of the early cancellation fees that Dan referenced in his comment, which increased the cash flow during this calendar year. So those are the two considerations that we make, when we're setting our dividend policy for the upcoming year.
Dan Schlanger :
And so, John, just to put a point on that. We don't anticipate that we would fund any of that dividend with debt borrowings. That's from the operating cash flow of the business, as Jay mentioned, and that's how we size the dividend. That's how we think about sizing the dividend in any period.
Jon Atkin :
Thank you. (Audit End)
Operator:
And moving on to Ric Prentiss of Raymond James.
Ric Prentiss :
Hi, good morning, everyone.
Jay Brown :
Good morning, Ric.
Ric Prentiss :
Couple of questions. First, on the churn front, it looks like based on '22 guidance, churns are going to step up sequentially from third quarter, fourth quarter. Anything special to call out there as far as what's driving that increase in insurance is that part of that fiber, Sprint T-Mobile thing.
Jay Brown :
I don't think, there is really a step up going in from the third quarter, the fourth quarter. And there's nothing going on that would increase the churn that we see in the business at all. That will likely be on the low end of our churn for 2022 as we end the year. So like I said, there's nothing going on the business that we see is increasing our churn at all. It's pretty flat quarter-over-quarter.
Ric Prentiss :
Okay. And then on the Sprint cancellation churn, 275 expected to be total. Did I hear you Jay say talking about there's 225 left in that. I was trying to read my notes fast early.
Jay Brown :
Yeah, that's a left going into 2024 and beyond, so we're going to realize some of that in 2023. So as we look into 2024, and I think what Jay was mentioning was thinking about the 2024 and 2025 dividend. So we're just sizing the amount that would be remaining at that point.
Ric Prentiss :
Okay. Second round of questions is kind of around rates. What are you assuming for interest rates when we updated the guidance? We didn't have to change '22, but when you look at '23, what kind of rates are you assuming in there just so we can kind of keep track of what the Fed actually does where rates have?
Jay Brown :
We have assumed at this point, the forward curve for rates as of right now, which does move around a bit, but if you just look at the forward curve, that's what we have in our assumptions.
Ric Prentiss :
That's something in the low 4% range, kind of?
Jay Brown :
Yeah, yes, ultimately. And like I said, it moves around a little bit, so low to mid-4s.
Ric Prentiss :
Okay. Last one, similar on the rate question. What are you hearing, if anything from the carrier customers, as far as, is the debt market and interest rates doing anything to their capital spending or activity with you, any worry about we get the questions from investors about what happens if there's a recession? What are you hearing from the carrier customers as far as concerned about recession pressure or concerned about interest rates as far as their ability and desire to spend with you in the short term.
Dan Schlanger :
We have seen the carriers be remarkably consistent in their activity and focused on 5G deployment. And that has been our experience frankly through past economic cycles as well. The carriers obviously are well funded, they have the cash flow capabilities to continue to invest in 5G, and we haven't seen any change in the consumer behavior either. So I think the place to watch for that is really is the consumer behavior changing, it's not. In fact, the consumer demand continues to grow and as we -- as I mentioned, in my comments, consumer has been willing to pay for that improved and increased service. And so, we've seen the carrier investment cycle continue and at this point, I don't have any concern that we're going to see a pullback from that front on the carrier side. They all have multiyear plans that they've shared with us. And they've obviously made sizable commitments to us around that, around those deployment cycles. So our teams are busy working with them closely on multiyear deployments. So don't expect to see a change in that demand profile.
Ric Prentiss :
Thanks, guys.
Operator:
And next, we'll hear from Michael Rollins of Citi.
Michael Rollins:
Thanks, and good morning. First, I'm curious if you can unpack the change from the tower leasing organic growth in '22 of about 6%, to about 5% in '23 and the stepped out in activity dollars. And within that context, if you can give us an update on the visibility that you have going forward in terms of what the shape of tower leasing, organic tower leasing, without the T-Mobile churn should look like? And I'll save one for the end, the follow up.
Jay Brown :
Let me just talk about a little bit about the environment, and then Dan can kind of walk through the numbers on the organic calculations. We're in this cycle is I made some comments around early in the cycle around 5G. And at the beginning part of every one of the technology upgrades that we've seen in the business over the years, as the carriers have gone from 2G to 3G, 3G to 4G, and now the same, we're seeing the same thing as the carriers go from 4G to 5G. They focus the early day investment on macro sites, the towers that they're already on in the places where they go through and they upgrade their network, add additional equipment to those sites that they're already on in order to accommodate the new technologies. Once they do that overlay, then they go back and they start to focus on increasing the density of their network. And they've done that historically, just by going on towers that they were not on previously. What's unique about the 5G cycle relative to prior cycles is that a part of that network planning is not only going on macro sites, but also utilizing small cells to increase the density of the network. So we're working with the carriers both on the tower side, the macro site side, as well as the small cell side to cover the increase in traffic that they're seeing, as well as the technology upgrades that that we're seeing. And we think there's a really long runway of growth on the tower side. Our view is we're going to be multiyear north of -- or about 5% growth on the tower side, and we'll continue to be really good and healthy demand for towers for an extended period of time. And we'll see that coupled with investment by the carriers on the small cells in order to increase the density.
Dan Schlanger :
In Mike just, we are moving from about 6% growth and 2022 to 5% growth in 2023. But as Jay said, we're excited about that, because we've been about 6% for a couple years now. And continuing on at 5% is a really good continuation of a long trend of growth. And what we look for is to try to stack really good years of growth year-over-year-over-year as opposed to have outsized growth in one year and then undersized in another. And this is just that type of trend playing out. And it puts us what we think is -- like we've talked about the last couple of years leading the industry the last couple of years, and staying within what is a relatively robust level of tower leasing growth of 5% to 6%. And as Jay said, we have a lot of visibility of that growth going forward. So you add all that together, and we're just -- we're excited about it. I think it's a great place to be.
Michael Rollins:
And just a follow up. And I apologize, just a little bit more of a complicated setup, but I was looking at two different numbers in your supplemental. So I was looking at the midpoint of the revenue guidance. And I was looking at what you disclosed on the projected site rental buildings from tenant contracts that you gave over a multiyear period of time. And if I compare like for '23, I adjust it to make it apples-to-apples, take out straight line, take out prepaid pick up the onetime benefit. If I look at '23, what's implied in the guidance, it's about the midpoint, it's about 90 basis points higher than what that contracted tenant revenue number is later in this supplemental. But if I do the same thing historically, like last year, it was 200 basis points and for the couple of years before that it was an average of almost 300 basis points. So, I apologize for that complicated set up of the question, is there something different about 2023, where you're expecting less incremental activity above the commitments that you have from customers? Or did you approach maybe guidance in a different way than you've done historically?
Jay Brown :
Yeah, Mike, thanks for the question. I think, we can probably walk -- we could try to reconcile the numbers that you're talking about. But I think the big picture answer to your question is the way that we've contracted with customers and what's occurred over the last several years. We have a much higher percentage of our growth that has been contracted with customers as a result of the holistic agreements that we've signed with them. So there's not a change in the way that we're thinking about doing the guidance, or the aggressiveness or conservatism that's in our forecast for the year, but rather, you're seeing the benefit of the significant amount of contracted revenue that we have. Dan mentioned this a couple of times in his prepared remarks, but we're north of $40 billion of contracted customer commitments. So over a multiyear period of time, we've contracted that growth. So going back to the comments that I made and answer to your first question, we have a lot of visibility around that 5% plus growth, because it's so much of it is contracted. We still have the benefit of -- the upside is uncapped, but we have a really solid view of where growth is. So I think what you're seeing when you go back and look at the billings, and you compare the historical, in each of the years that you laid out, when you look at the forecasted revenue, compared to the amount that was in the buildings, those are going through past periods where we were adding some of these holistic agreements so at each of those points, we may have had, kind of no holistic agreements, all the way up to holistic agreements with several of our customers as we sit here today.
Michael Rollins:
Thanks for that additional color.
Operator:
David Barden with Bank of America has our next question.
David Barden :
Hey, guys, thanks so much. A couple if I could. I guess the first one was -- I guess I want to ask this question in the context of normalizing 2023 rather than maybe 2024. But, Dan, I think during your comments, you mentioned that net of churn the fiber solutions businesses not going to grow or at least not expected to grow in '23. But you made the comment that, we're not for some of the macroeconomic headwinds, you would expect to grow at the more normal long-term target of 3%. I was wondering if you could kind of maybe give us some color, as we kind of look at the other segments, small cells, presumably, losing the Sprint turn will help it on a normalized basis. And then in macro, obviously a little bit down from the 2021 level -- sorry, 2022 levels of growth guided in '23 if there is kind of wiggle room in quote unquote, more normal circumstances for that to maybe be better. And I guess the second question is, regarding to roughly flat prepaid rent amortization in '23 but that obviously is benefiting from a $50 million, a onetimer. And then at least on the forward-looking, prepaid rent amortization schedule that you put inside -- in number 18 in the supplement. It looks like it's going to drop down pretty substantially from there again in 2024. So looking at those offsets potential, normalized performance in the core business offset by decline in prepaid rent arborization, recognizing it's non-cash. But how should we think about what the revenue and EBITDA trajectory might look like, on a normalized basis with those two forces opposing each other, thanks.
Jay Brown :
I'll take the normalized revenue growth question and Dan can speak to kind of some of your questions around prepaid. And I'll just stick through each of the business lines. And if I missed something that you're trying to reconcile, feel free to ask again that. But on the tower side, if you exclude the Sprint cancellations, the bulk of which we talked about, it's going to occur to us in 2025. If you ignore that, and just look at normalized activity, we think that normalized activity in the business is going to see churn of somewhere in the neighborhood of about 1% to 2%, just like our historical average has been. So there's nothing else occurring on the tower side that I would point to as the need to normalize other than removing the Sprint cancellations in a couple of years. And my comments before around the growth that we're seeing both the contracted growth and the opportunity for upside, gives us confidence that we think we'll be able to see organic growth in and above that kind of 5%, organic growth levels. I don't think there's anything else in those numbers, you really need to normalize in order to get the right run-rate. On the small cell side. We obviously talked about the churn and where that churn is going to hit. If you ignore the churn and get down to the normalized level, the one thing you have to adjust for is this significant rate of growth and the timing of that growth. So the number of nodes that we're going to turn on air next year, doubling obviously increases the activity, and the fact that the activity itself and when those nodes turn cash paying, being backend loaded. When you look at our contribution to the to the financial results, whether it's organic growth in terms of number of dollars, or you look at it on the face of the financial statements, you don't see the full effect of those 10,000 nodes, until as we roll into 2024, we get to the full run-rate of those notes getting turned on air by the end of 2023. So you have to normalize for the activity and -- the doubling of the activity as well as the backend loading in order to get to a more normalized run-rate of growth. On fiber solutions, as I mentioned in my comments, we think the revenue growth is going to be flat, that's a function of in part the churn activity that we saw this year, partly due to the Sprint cancellations that we'll see popping over into 2023. But by the time we get to the end of the year, when we get to kind of fourth quarter results and look backwards over a quarter-over-quarter meaning quarter 2023, compared to quarter four of 2022, we think we'll be back at that 3% growth that we've expected in the business, normalizing for all of the churn and the other items, we're seeing that level of activity currently in the business. So we're not forecasting growth in activity as we get towards the back of the year. We're just looking at normal activity and removing all of the onetime items and that gets us back to growing. We think that'll be reflected in the results of growing at about 3% per year, which is our base expectation.
Dan Schlanger :
Okay. And Dave, I'll take the prepaid rent amortization. I think you've positioned it well, this year, there was -- if you looked at and going into 2023 at the tables in the supplements are looked like there was going to be a big drop off. The table itself is just the book of business that we have at the time we put the table together, it's not a forecast. And the difference between those two concepts of the book of business in the forecast is as we get more prepaid or capital expenditures reimbursed to us from our customers as we build out any type of assets, either towers or small cells. We then amortize that additional prepaid rent that we receive over the life of the contract. And we don't project that out and put it into the table, the table is just what do we know as of the date that we put that table. And because of that, you will see a decline at times like this, like we see in the tower business specifically. And that decline will be offset by in 2023, whatever additional reimbursements -- capital reimbursements we get from our customers that will then be amortized over the life of those contracts. And typically speaking, the life of our contracts are in the range of 10 years. So that would be the only thing that would offset a reduction going from '22 into 2023 is the additional capital that we're going to get reimbursed for. And as I mentioned in my comments earlier, we think our total capital expenditures in 2023, will be about $1.4 billion to $1.5 billion. And the net capital expenditures will be about a $1 billion. So that's about $450 million of capital that we anticipate will get back from our customers. And the amortization of that will add to the table. And as you look out going forward, we continue to do to have those additions over time as we get more reimbursements. But other than that, I think everything you said about the prepaid rent and the table was exactly right. And we do anticipate that there will be drop offs, particularly in our tower business.
David Barden :
Got it. And as we kind of think about -- I think the earlier question about the dividend and funding the dividend and how you think about it coming out of operating cash flow. Obviously, a lot of that cash flow coming this year is coming from the termination payments, $165 million midpoint from the Sprint situation. In the absence of those payments, being present, either you'd have to have had a smaller dividend growth, or you would have had to either get more aggressive on leverage to fund it, or use equity to fund it. Could you kind of walk us through your thought process on what if the Sprint termination payments didn't exist?
Jay Brown :
Sure. Let me just go back and start with how do we size the dividend, and then we can talk about the what ifs. So we size the dividend each year, what we look at is what do we believe the cash flows in the business are going to grow over that subsequent 12-month period of time. And given the visibility that we have in the business, we have a really good view of what the growth is going to be over the year, because by this point, you know, as we talked about on the tower side 70% plus of the overall business that's largely contracted at this point. So we have a really good view of that. On the small cell side. Similarly, those notes have been contracted. And we've been working on them. So we have a good sense of when they're going to come on air. So that we start there with what do we believe, over the subsequent 12 months the growth in cash flows are going to be. And then what we look at secondly, is we look at what's the cash flow generation of the business over the next 12 months when we set the dividend policy. Historically, if you go back and look at go back to 2017, and roll that all the way forward through the conversation that we're having this morning, we have size that dividend between 96% and 99% of the expected cash flows in the business for that subsequent 12 months. And we did the exact same thing in this quarter as we're releasing the expectation for dividend growth and throughout 2023. So if we had gotten to this place, and there was a different set of circumstances, a different set of facts and the cash flow generation were different, whether it was higher or lower, or the expected run-rate of cash flows as we exited 2023 were higher or lower then our dividend would be higher or lower. We don't utilize the capital markets to fund our dividend. So if the cash flows of the business were lower than the expectation we would have is that we would lower the dividend, we would not be accessing the debt markets or the equity markets to fund that dividend. When we think about the opportunity to invest in things, that's where we utilize the capital markets. So the comparison that we're making there with the utilization of as Dan mentioned, the opportunity to use growth and cash flows and EBITDA to fund growth, we look at what's the highest and best use of that capital. And then we'll access the capital markets as appropriate to fund those opportunities. But the dividend is funded based on the cash flow characteristics of the business and we set the policy based on that.
David Barden:
All right. Thanks, Jay. That's clear. Appreciated.
Operator:
Next, we'll hear from Phil Cusick of JPMorgan.
Phil Cusick :
Hi, guys, thank you. I wanted to ask about the services guidance, which looks pretty steady, year over year. Should we think of that shifting some from towers to fiber and small cells? And is there any shift in margins as that happens? Thank you.
Jay Brown :
Good morning, Phil. No, there's no shift. We would expect a similar contribution from towers as what we were expecting and seeing in 2022 to continue into 2023. And no change in behavior from the carriers or margins or anything else that would cause us to lead to a different answer. So we think we'll see a pretty similar result both in terms of revenue and margins and mix in '23.
Phil Cusick :
Got it. Thank you.
Operator:
And moving on to Brett Feldman of Goldman Sachs.
Brett Feldman :
Thanks. Two questions if you don't mind. So you said during your prepared remarks that the Sprint cancellation payments getting -- are tied to when they actually terminate leases. I guess the biggest year for the churn coming off of Sprint is going to be 2025. So does that mean that actually in 2025, there could actually be some fairly significant cancellation payments as well? And then the second question is, it looks like you're using a bit more stock-based compensation this year, we see that in the AFFO reconciliation. I'm curious if this is a bit of a philosophical shift in how you're looking to compensate the team going forward and if we should be modeling out a higher run-rate from here, thanks.
Jay Brown :
On the first question, the Sprint cancellations, those are coming to their natural term end dates in 2025, on the tower side so we would not expect to receive any significant payments in 2025 from T-Mobile. Just to be clear about what we're receiving in 2023 are expecting to receive in 2023. Those are the cancellations of nodes that have contracted terms remaining. And so they're funding the remaining years of those contracted payments in 2023. So it's a little bit different approach to how they're thinking about their network, between towers and small cells, and why there's a difference in terms of the cash flow characteristics. On the non-cash comp, I would say -- first of all, there's no change in our philosophy in terms of the way we're thinking about percentages or contributions of overall comp for the organization from past years. I think what you're seeing there is just a range of potential outcomes that we put into the outlook as we look forward. So not a meaningful shift in the way that we're thinking about using stock, using stock as we compensate employees.
Brett Feldman :
Thank you.
Operator:
And next we'll hear from Matt Niknam of Deutsche Bank.
Matt Niknam :
Hey, guys, thank you for taking the questions. Just two if I could. First on the Sprint cancellation payments, any color you can share on the cadence of those payments, how they roll in over the course of next year? And maybe the allocation of those payments between small cells and fiber solutions? And then secondly, maybe bigger picture question, we've seen a couple of announcements from cable around starting to build out some of their own spectrum to supplement their MVNOs. I'm just wondering if you can comment on how meaningful this can be for your business given your ownership of both towers and small cells. Thanks.
Dan Schlanger :
Thanks, man on the ETLs, the payments will happen as Jay mentioned, when those contracts ultimately get cancelled. No likely be at the beginning of the year, we think, but we are not in control of that specifically. So we'll wait and see, and we'll let you know. But it could happen through the course of the year or may happen close to the beginning of the year. The majority of the cancellations are going to be in the small cell business. So I would just say that there's more than half and small cells less than half in fiber solutions.
Jay Brown :
On your second question around cable, we're certainly working with the various cable companies as they're thinking about their mobile strategy. And have seen some benefits both on towers as well as small cells. I think we will continue to see that overtime, I believe that we have an opportunity for that to be a growing component of our revenue growth. Broadly, without just being completely limited to cable companies, there are a lot of institutions and organizations that are thinking about their mobile strategy. And so we have seen an uptick in the last couple of years of customers outside of what you would traditionally think of as the big the big four operators, the big four carriers, leasing space on towers and also small cells. And we think that's a growing opportunity. One, we're focused on capturing as much of that demand as possible. I wouldn't describe it in our either -- our current results 2022, or what we expect in 2023 as being material. But it is a growing segment and I think it gives us opportunity for future growth in the years 2024 and beyond.
Matt Niknam :
That's great. Thank you.
Operator:
And moving on to Nick Del Deo of MoffettNathanson.
Nick Del Deo :
Hey, good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. First for Dan, can you just share the expected dollars of churn and the expected dollars of escalation for towers in '23, having those alongside the leasing number would be helpful.
Dan Schlanger :
Yeah, so leasing, as we talked about, I'll give you kind of midpoints to try to help with that is around $140 million on towers on escalators. It should be in the neighborhood of $90 million, and on churn, it should be in the neighborhood of $35 million.
Nick Del Deo :
Okay, great. Thank you. And then, on the small cell front, I think you've historically said that anchor small cell nodes typically costs about $100,000, each from a gross CapEx perspective, and obviously, a fraction of that for co-locations. I guess in light of the inflation, we've seen in some of the expense pressures that you've called out, are those averages still about right? And if there has been any upward pressure there, are you seeing any pushback from getting corresponding lease rates up or customers kind of accepting it?
Jay Brown :
Nick, thanks for the question. We've used $100,000 as a proxy to try to help people understand the quantum that affects our financial statements. But the way these agreements are priced is based on yield or expected yield. So when we build nodes, we're typically seeing a 6% to 7% initial yield on invested capital and then growing that invested capital, as I referred to, in some of my comments around what we think in 2023, the percentage of co-located notes into that high-single digit yields once we get to second tenant low-double digit yield, as we get to a two tenant system. So we're pricing, think about customer contracts the way, the way the actual contracted rate of revenue, works itself out through the combination of both upfront funded capital from the carrier, and then the ongoing rent being driven more by the yield required to get to the levels that I just described. And that $100,000 is more theoretical than it is anything than it is anything else. Each system is differently priced, and it's priced to return. So the inflationary pressures that that you're referring to are absolutely -- have absolutely happened. They have a similar and direct impact on what we receive from a customer in front of in terms of upfront capital, as well as where the rental rate on those nodes once they're built.
Nick Del Deo :
Okay. So you've been able to push that through in pricing to sustain your yields at your historical levels.
Jay Brown :
Right. Okay, great. Thank you, guys.
Operator:
And next, we'll hear from Brandon Nispel of KeyBanc Capital Markets.
Brandon Nispel :
Great. Thank you for taking the question. Two, one for Dan, one for Jay. Going back to Michael's questions $140 million in tower leasing. How should that trend throughout the year? Is it linear-- is it first half second half weighted? That was for Dan. Jay, second question is just on overall backlogs in the small cell business. You've been stuck at 60,000 nodes a year. And obviously, you have like multiple years to build those nodes at 10,000 a year to really work through that backlog. But how should we expect the backlog to build really over the next 12 to 18 months, if at all? Thanks.
Jay Brown :
I'll take the first one. Thanks. The tower leasing is pretty radiable through the course of the year, I wouldn't call out any difference between the first half or the second half, it goes to the course of the year.
Dan Schlanger :
On your second question around small cell builds in the backlog, I think this is a business that's going to likely forever be very different than what we've seen with towers where there's more a consistent level of activity with towers where we see the backlog build and grow at a more consistent pace. Small cells by their nature, because of the number of them that have to be deployed and how they're deployed at the market level, I think we'll always see kind of lumpy orders. And the work that we're doing now with customers is, in part working on deploying all the commitments that they've given us, as you referenced, the 50,000 commitment that we received from Verizon and T-Mobile. We're also working with them as they think about the next leg of small cells and what they're going to need in the next part of the densification of their network. And so while it hasn't resulted in orders yet, those are the conversations that we're working on with them across multiple markets. So my expectation for how will it build if you take a really long term view, Brandon, on your question. My long-term view is, the total number of small cells in the backlog will go up and to the right. And over time, we'll see this business continue to scale and grow. But I don't think we're likely to see that business have a backlog where it's a steady change every quarter-to-quarter. I think we'll see some lumpiness in it as we get large commitments from the carriers and visibility towards what their future build is, and then we go through the process of working on it with them and then figure out what's, next on their agenda for densification around the network. I think it's just the nature of the way the business is going to work.
Brandon Nispel :
Great. Thanks for taking the questions.
Jay Brown :
Operator, may we have time for one more question.
Operator:
Yes, sir. Our final question will come from Greg Williams of Cowen.
Greg Williams :
Great, thanks for taking my questions. First ones on the small cell CapEx. Obviously, you're doing a good job leveraging existing nodes with over half of the nodes. And, I've heard in the past those CapEx efficiencies could be up to four to one. What's a good runway as we think about beyond '23 of how often you could leverage existing nodes? Is it going to be around that 50% part that I imagine it goes way down as you have to Greenfield additional nodes? Second question is just around the fiber M&A landscape, you probably need color on funding the dividend just with cash. But when you go out and grow, yield, the debt markets, or equity markets, obviously not a good time now, but multiples are also coming down quite a bit in the fiber space we're hearing. So just trying to understand your calculus and what you're seeing in that fiber M&A landscape. Should you go out and need additional fiber. Thanks.
Jay Brown :
You bet. Greg, thanks for the question. On your first question, over last several years, if we look at the percentage of co-location we've been in and around 20% to 30% of the total activity that we've seen, has been in the form of co-location. And as I mentioned in my comments, and you refer to we expect in 2023, that about 50% of the activity will be co-location. If you roll that forward into the future years, we've talked about that the vast majority of the nodes that were committed by T-Mobile 35,000 node commitments that they made. The vast majority of those will be co-located on existing fiber systems. So the vast majority of those are co-location. And then on the Verizon commitment, we think that's a mix of new markets and co-location. So we'll get some of both, but based on the current backlog that would tend towards that higher percentage of colocation. So driving CapEx efficiencies and increases the return on the systems and we're continuing to see, as I said in my earlier comments, really encouraging trend lines when we get down to the system levels of seeing the returns come -- the incremental returns come in where we expected when we underwrote those investments. So really encouraged by that story, starting to shape up more and more like the tower model, and what we've seen historically, if you get scale in towers and then grow the return through the acquisition process. The second question around fiber M&A, we've been really careful about what we've looked to acquire in order to be interesting to add to the acquisition. The fiber strands have to be high capacity and they need to be located in densely populated areas that we believe there is going to be significant small sell opportunity in order to grow those returns. Today, as evidenced by the fact we haven't done any acquisitions since 2017, we have not found any acquisitions that meet that criteria. And at this point, we continue to believe that the vast majority of the opportunity is going to be through organic builds, rather than acquisitions. So we'll continue to look and pay attention to what's out there. And if there's an opportunity that makes sense, we would consider it. But we think it's much more likely that will be an organic builder of the fiber that will be needed for small cells for the carrier customers rather than in acquisition mode in order to gain that fiber.
Greg Williams :
Got it. That's helpful. Thank you.
Jay Brown :
Great. Well, thanks, everyone for joining us this morning. Appreciate the time and we look forward to catching up with you soon.
Operator:
And that does conclude today's conference. We thank you for your participation. Have a wonderful day.
Operator:
Good day, and welcome to the Crown Castle Q2 2022 Earnings Call. Today's conference is being recorded. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Ben Lowe. Please go ahead, sir.
Ben Lowe:
Great. Thank you, Paula, and good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us today as we discuss our second quarter 2022 results. With me on the call this morning are Jay Brown, Crown Castle's, Chief Executive Officer; and Dan Schlanger, Crown Castle's, Chief Financial Officer. To aid, the discussion, we have posted supplemental materials in the Investors section of our website at crowncastle.com that will be referenced throughout the call this morning. This conference call will contain forward-looking statements, which are subject to certain risks, uncertainties and assumptions, and actual results may vary materially from those expected. Information about potential factors which could affect our results is available in the press release and the Risk Factors section of the company's SEC filings. Our statements are made as of today, July 21, 2022, and we assume no obligation to update any forward-looking statements. In addition, today's call includes discussions of certain non-GAAP financial measures. Tables reconciling these non-GAAP financial measures are available in the supplemental information package in the Investors section of the company's website at crowncastle.com. With that, let me turn the call over to Jay.
Jay Brown:
Thanks, Ben, and good morning, everyone. Thanks for joining us on the call. As you saw from our second quarter results and updated full year outlook, the strength of the US market continues to stand out. We are seeing the benefits of a strong leasing environment as we support our customers' growth initiatives with their deployment of 5G. This activity drove 6% organic revenue growth in our tower business in the first half of the year, which we believe will meaningfully continue through the remainder of the year. And as a result, it's resulting in higher operating performance relative to our expectations at the beginning of the year. In addition, we expect to double the rate of small cell deployments next year compared to the 5,000 nodes, we expect to put on air this year to meet the growing demand from our customers as 5G networks require small cells at scale. Looking further out, I believe our strategy and unmatched portfolio of 40,000 towers, a 115,000 small cells on air or under contract and 85,000 route miles of fiber concentrated in the top US markets have positioned Crown Castle to achieve our long-term annual dividend per share growth target of 7% to 8%. Dan will discuss the financial results and updated outlook, so I'll focus my discussion on our strategy to deliver the highest risk-adjusted returns for our shareholders by growing our dividend and investing in assets that will generate future growth. To that end, we are focused solely on the US because we believe it represents the best market in the world for wireless infrastructure ownership, when considering both growth and risk. As you saw in the release, to better reflect our strategic focus on the US market, we are changing our company name from Crown Castle International Corp. to Crown Castle, Inc., while our ticker will remain CCI. As you can see on Slide 3, the demand drivers for our infrastructure have been strong since the early days of the wireless network investment in the US. We have benefited over time from persistent growth in mobile data that has required hundreds of billions of dollars of network investment by our customers. During the 2G deployments in the mid-90s, wireless operators invested approximately $125 billion over eight years to enable wireless voice services nationwide. As network and handset technology rapidly improved, that investment cycle gave way to the development of nationwide 3G, which enabled basic mobile Internet browsing that consumes significantly more data than legacy voice services. Over the next eight years or so, wireless operators invested approximately $200 billion, both to deploy new spectrum on existing cell sites and deploy thousands of new cells, in order to add to the network capacity, needed to keep pace with the substantial growth in mobile data. The virtuous cycle continued with network investment and technology innovation, allowing our customers to meet the increasing demand for mobile data that US consumers are willing to pay for. As we entered a new decade in 2010, wireless operators began deploying nationwide 4G that delivered a step function change in how fast data is transferred from cell sites to mobile devices. This innovation led to the development of data-rich applications and use cases that were simply not possible with 3G networks, including mobile video, e-commerce and social media platforms, which drove another step change in mobile data demand. Over that decade, wireless operators invested approximately $325 billion to develop their 4G network and mobile data demand increased by a factor of 96 times during that same period. As a result of the quality of the network and the user experience enabled by this level of investment, US consumers have used their wireless devices more and more, and they have been willing and able to pay for that improving mobile experience. In turn, the US wireless operators have taken the cash flows generated from their customers and invested even more in their networks and the cycle continues. The combination of this persistent growth in mobile data and the value we deliver to our customers by providing a low-cost shared infrastructure solution has enabled us to consistently generate growth through various macroeconomic cycles. As you can see on slide four, our business has a long track record of delivering growth through periods of US economic expansion and contraction. Similar to past generational network upgrades, we expect 5G to drive sustained growth in our tower business, as our customers upgrade existing cell sites and add new sites to our 40,000 towers. We also believe 5G will be different as it will require the deployment of small cells at scale to increase the capacity and density of wireless network, as more spectrum deployed across existing macro towers will not be sufficient to keep up with the growth in mobile data demand. As a result of the requirement to build out this denser network, we believe the duration and magnitude of 5G investment will likely exceed prior cycles, further extending our runway of growth. With this view in mind, we have invested $16 billion of capital in high-capacity fiber and small cells that are concentrated in the top US markets. That capital is yielding more than 7% today. And with more than 60,000 contracted small cell nodes in our backlog, including a record number of colocation nodes, we expect the yield to increase over time, as we put those small cells on air. To put this in perspective, our tower investment began more than 20 years ago at approximately 3% yield, when we built and acquired assets that we could share across multiple customers. As we have proven out the value proposition for our customers and leased up our tower assets over time, those assets now generate a yield on invested capital of 11.5%, with meaningful capacity to support additional growth. To provide investors with additional visibility into how our fiber segment investments are progressing, we have updated the analysis we have provided each of the last two years, outlining the activity and returns for five specific markets. Looking at the collective view of how these five markets have performed over the year -- over the last year on slide five, growth from both small cells and fiber solutions has contributed to solid returns, with yields that are largely consistent year-over-year. The performance across these markets demonstrate our ability to generate strong overall returns, as we co-locate additional customers on our fiber assets, while also investing capital to build new assets and expand the long-term growth opportunity. To that point, we are seeing co-location at scale with solid returns. Across our entire fiber business, about a-third of the small cell nodes we have deployed since the beginning of 2018, have been co-located on existing fiber with returns that are consistent with the targets that we have communicated. Looking at how well our overall strategy is performing. Since 2018, we have increased our consolidated return on invested capital by 160 basis points to 9.5%. Returned nearly $9.5 billion to shareholders through our dividend that has increased at a compound annual growth rate of approximately 9%, while also investing $7 billion of capital into attractive assets that we believe will support the future 5G build-out and contribute to dividend growth in the future. I believe that combination highlights how compelling and differentiated our strategy is. We provide investors with the most exposure to the development of next-generation networks with our comprehensive offering of towers, small cells and fiber, a pure-play US wireless infrastructure provider with exposure to the best growth and the lowest risk market, a compelling total return with a current yield of 3.5% and a long-term annual dividend per share growth target of 7% to 8% and the development of attractive new assets that we believe will extend our runway of growth. When I consider the durability of the underlying demand trends we see in the US that provides significant visibility into the anticipated future growth for our business. The deliberate decisions we have made to reduce the risks associated with our strategy and our history of steady execution, I believe Crown Castle stands out as an excellent investment that will generate compelling returns over time. Before I wrap up, I did want to draw your attention to one other announcement that we made yesterday. We released our 2021 environmental, social and governance report and we also launched a new ESG website as a part of our effort to provide timely and accessible ESG disclosures. Our business is inherently sustainable. With our shared infrastructure solution supporting connectivity that is vital to our economy, while limiting the proliferation of infrastructure and minimizing the use of natural resources. We continue to build an inclusive and diverse community at Crown Castle and are committed to further improving the impact we have on the communities in which we operate with specific goals to be carbon neutral in Scope 1 and 2 emissions by 2025 and meaningfully increase our addressable spend with diverse suppliers by 2026. We hope you find these new disclosures and the website helpful. And with that, I'll turn the call over to Dan.
Dan Schlanger:
Thanks, and good morning, everyone. As Jay discussed, 5G deployments continue to create a strong operating environment and are driving another year of solid growth for us. Results for the second quarter were in line with our expectations, so I want to start by discussing our updated expectations for full year 2022. Turning to page 8. Our outlook for 2022 site rental revenues and AFFO remains unchanged while we increased the outlook for adjusted EBITDA by $20 million. The increase to adjusted EBITDA reflects a $20 million increase in the expected contribution from our services business as we continue to capitalize on the consistently high levels of tower activity. In addition to updating our 2022 outlook for strong operating performance, we also reduced our expectations for full year sustaining CapEx and cash taxes by $25 million as we focus on operating the business as efficiently as possible. These positives do not flow through to AFFO -- additional AFFO growth in the year due to an increase in expected interest expense of $45 million. This $45 million increase reflects the significant increase in interest rates we have experienced over the last few months and incorporates the now higher forward curve on our $3.3 billion of floating rate debt. As a result of these changes, our AFFO outlook remains unchanged. In light of the increasingly uncertain macroeconomic and rate environments, I'd like to review our approach to capital allocation and balance sheet management. Our first capital allocation priority is to return the majority of the free cash flow generated by our business to our shareholders through a quarterly dividend with future dividend growth tied to future growth and cash flows. Our second priority is to invest in assets that meet our underwriting standards and generate expected future growth, and we fund those discretionary investments with external capital in a manner consistent with maintaining our investment-grade credit profile. When we underwrite these investment opportunities, we set our hurdle rates based on an assessment of our long-term cost of capital to align with the long-term nature of the assets we're investing in. Our underwriting assumptions contemplate a rate environment that approximates a long-term average interest rate, but we expected the increase in rates to happen over a few years versus the move we've witnessed this year that happened over a matter of months. As a result, the current rate environment does not impact our long-term cost of capital or our desire to continue to pursue investments with the return profiles we have consistently discussed with investors, since we believe those returns will significantly exceed our cost of capital. Having said that, the pace at which rates have normalized will present some near-term challenges. As you can see with the $65 million increase in our 2022 outlook for interest expense, when compared to the outlook we established last October. Our last capital allocation priority, if we have excess capital after paying our dividends and investing in new assets is to return that capital to our shareholders through share repurchases. Turning to the balance sheet. We ended the second quarter in a very good position with 4.9 times debt to adjusted EBITDA and currently have approximately nine years of weighted average term remaining, 85% of our debt tied to fixed rates and limited maturities through 2024. Additionally, we continue to focus on ensuring we have sufficient liquidity to meet near-term debt maturities and fund our discretionary capital expenditures. We believe we have accomplished that goal by amending our credit facility in early July to increase the revolver capacity to $7 billion, leaving us with nearly $5 billion of available liquidity. So to wrap up, we're excited about the demand we're seeing across our shared infrastructure offering as our customers deploy 5G at scale and the best market for wireless infrastructure ownership. We believe we have sufficient capital to invest in new assets to take advantage of the densification of communications networks required to meet the future data demand growth spurred by 5G. And we believe our comprehensive set of solutions across towers, small cells and fiber, which are all necessary to build next generation wireless networks will allow us to deliver on our long-term growth target of 7% to 8% annual dividend growth per share -- sorry, annual growth in dividends per share. With that, Paula, I'd like to open the call to questions.
Operator:
Thank you. [Operator Instructions] We'll take our first question from David Barden with Bank of America.
David Barden:
Hey guys. Thanks so much for taking the questions. I guess a couple, if I could. First, Jay or Dan, is this big step-up in revolver capacity, should we be reading something into this about maybe your view as to the potential for opportunities to acquire new portfolios increasing as maybe the rate environment, other thing maybe put some pressure on potential sellers? Is that the reason why we wanted so much capacity available? I guess the second question would be, could you kind of just give us your thoughts now on the wisdom of having 15% of the debt variable rate and kind of you're thinking about that now? And then, I guess, the last piece is something that, obviously, we've been talking about since you shared new disclosures around the amortization of prepaid rents, obviously, the accounting amortization of that is going to fall through time. But presumably, it's falling because new prepaid rents, cash coming in the door is also falling. And just how should we think about that informing your outlook for maintaining 7% to 8% dividend growth annually? Thank you.
Jay Brown:
Thanks. Good morning. I'll take the first question, and I'll let Dan speak to the second two questions. On your first question around the revolver, no, there's no read-through here in terms of what we're seeing on the acquisition front. We've been really consistent about our view of particularly fiber assets over the last several years. that the vast majority of the additional assets that we will own over time will likely be as a result of assets that we build. As we assess the landscape, we don't see an opportunity to acquire assets at scale that meet the criteria of dense urban footprints with high-capacity fiber that will be used for small cells. So, the increase in the revolver is more, as Dan spoke to balance sheet management and gives us some more flexibility as we think about funding upcoming CapEx over years as well as navigating through any debt maturities that may come in. So, no read through there on the acquisition side.
Dan Schlanger:
Hey I'll take the next two, Dave. The first of which, on the 15% variable debt. There's always a balance that we try to strike between how much certainty do we have in that interest expense line item and the ability to take advantage of short-term debt that is less expensive than long-term debt. We believe around this 15% range is a good strike of that balance where we get to take advantage of the lower cost of capital that comes with having shorter or variable debt. And we believe that we can withstand as we've seen in our 2022 outlook, the ability -- or the consequence of having debt increase in the period. And I think as most of us have seen and understand the rate at which the interest rates have increased in 2022 has been the fastest rate of interest rate increases in the last 50 years. So, even in that period, we were able to withstand having 15% debt and still maintain our AFFO outlook. So we think we're in a good balance at this point between fixed and variable debt. On your last question of prepaid rent amortization, I think the last thing you said was as prepaid rent amortization goes down, does that impact our dividend growth? The answer to that question is I don't believe so because we sized the dividend based on the cash flow generation of our business in the period that we're talking about. And that prepaid rent amortization doesn't increase cash flow in that period. So we believe we will still have the opportunity to grow at 7% to 8%, even if we have amortization coming down over time, which you can see in the schedule that we've added to our supplement. But I do want to take a step back and just talk about prepaid rent amortization, more is what is driving it and why it's important to us. And it is an economic trade that we and our customers make at the time of building assets for them. When we put capital into our assets even in the form of new assets or modification of existing assets, we get reimbursed for a portion of that capital from our customers. That reimbursement and accounting gives rise to a deferred revenue that we have to amortize over the course of the remaining life of the contract. And that is what prepaid rent amortization is. But what you can see in that is that our customers are paying for some of our capital, and that is true economics that we are receiving. And therefore, we, as an industry overall, decided the best way to try to reflect that economic trade was to include the amortization within the definition of AFFO. But because we know that it isn't exactly clean one way or the other, however, we figured it out, we, as Crown Castle, wanted to give as much information around that prepaid rent amortization as we could which gave rise both to the tables that are in our supplement that show in-period amortization, in-period prepaid rent received and over the next five years, what that amortization is going to look like over time. And we hope that, that gives investors the ability to make whatever decision on how to judge within the AFFO calculation, prepaid rent amortization. But I just wanted to make sure everybody understands there's a true economic trade that's happening where we're getting benefit, and we want that to be reflected in our financial statements.
David Barden:
Thanks, Dan.
Dan Schlanger:
Sure.
Operator:
And moving on we'll go to Simon Flannery with Morgan Stanley.
Simon Flannery:
Thank you very much. Good morning. I just wanted to follow-up with a couple of things from the AT&T earnings call. The first thing they said was that, they had pulled forward their 5G build. They are now at 70 million POPs covered with mid-band by the mid-part of this year, six months ahead of schedule. So my question around that is just where are we in this sort of mid-band 5G build-out cycle? Are we kind of plateauing now still accelerating? We're seeing some of the carriers with CapEx peaking this year. So how should – how do you see that looking over the coming quarters? And then turning to your fiber business, you've talked about the small cells. Thanks for the disclosure again. What's going on, on the enterprise side, on the traditional fiber? Again, AT&T was warning about business wireline pressures, although a lot of that was some of the legacy revenue streams that I think you're less exposed to. But any color there would be great.
Jay Brown:
Good morning, Simon. Thanks for the questions.
Simon Flannery:
Good morning.
Jay Brown:
On the first question, I wouldn't speak specifically to any one of our customers. But broadly, when you look at what's happening on the tower side of our business, we're in the middle of a multi-year acceleration of activity, which has been driven by 5G and the deployment of largely 5G equipment across sites that they were already co-located on for 4G or prior generations. And across the whole industry -- across all of our customers, I should say, we think that acceleration continues through the -- at least the balance of this year. I don't want to get into giving guidance for 2023 and what we expect activity there to be. But we think, as I alluded to in my comments, this is -- there's a very long runway of activity from 5G build-outs and trying to pick the years where they're the highest over a long period of time, frankly, has proven to be very difficult for us over a long period of time. What we have been very capable of capturing is that opportunity over a long period of time. And I think that's -- the comments that I made around what we've seen in the past on 2G, 3G, 4G and now 5G, it's, I think, something that we're going to continue to see for tower growth for years to come. Each of those cycles, as I mentioned in my comments, has increased the total amount of CapEx for the carriers. And I think we'll see a similar thing play out in 5G as you already see a very large amount of capital that's been spent on 5G. And as I alluded to, I think we've just scratched the surface on what that's going to look like. So that's on the tower side, and I think it bleeds into the small cell side as the carriers have started to really increase the amount of focus as they densify their network and need small cells as a part of that. And we're obviously seeing that acceleration as we talked to. This year, we'll do about 5,000 nodes on air. And next year, we expect to do 10,000 on air. So really excited about what the growth is going to mean and certainly don't feel like we're coming towards the end of the build-out of 5G. On the second question around what we're seeing in the enterprise fiber business, we expect this year to grow the top line for enterprise fiber about 3% and haven't really seen any change there. You mentioned this in your comment, which I would echo that our business really has not been very susceptible to movements in economic cycles historically. The vast, vast majority of the services that we provide are to large enterprises, to government institutions, health care universities. And we do very little of small and medium businesses and do nothing direct to consumers. So we just don't see volatility and haven't seen historically the kind of volatility that many fiber businesses see through economic cycles. So I would not expect the current economic conditions to really impact our view of seeing about 3% growth this year.
Simon Flannery:
Great. Thanks a lot.
Jay Brown:
You bet.
Operator:
And next, we'll go to Brett Feldman with Goldman Sachs.
Brett Feldman:
Thanks for taking the question. I was hoping you can maybe give us some insight in terms of like the nature of the leasing activity on your towers. And what I mean is, if I was just guessing, I would assume that the large majority of the leasing on your towers is your carriers deploying recently acquired mid-band spectrum on sites where they already colocate. And so I'm curious if that's actually the case, or maybe we misunderstand what's driving leasing? And then I know this is a bit of a guess, but whenever they do complete the process of putting their mid-band on sites that they already operate, it's obviously at a much higher frequency. And so presumably, they're going to look to densify. Do you have visibility that they're going to look to do that by putting equipment on towers they don't currently have any equipment on, so it could lead to more amendments, or are you thinking it may be more of a small cell project? Any insights you have about that, I think, would be appreciated. Thank you.
Jay Brown:
Yeah, good morning Brett, thanks for the question. Yes, to your question about are we seeing a lot of spectrum being added to existing sites. That is the most cost-effective way and has been for years for the carriers to increase the capacity inside of their network. So to the extent that they have -- spectrum they haven't used from -- and have acquired and they're deploying that spectrum across the sites. And obviously, under the nature of the contracts that we've negotiated with them, they get the benefit of using the infrastructure. We get the benefit of increasing revenues associated with that. Obviously, the other -- we have another customer who is deploying a brand new nationwide network in the case of Dish, and we're actively engaged in doing that work. So that's happening as well. So I wouldn't limit it solely to new spectrum going on existing sites, although that is a driver of the activity. Typically, as has been the case with past generational upgrades, the densification that comes from additional macro sites as traffic increases, this is kind of a second layer of activity. So we have some of that. But frankly, most of the activity is on sites where they're already co-located on and they're adding additional equipment to those sites already. So that would be the bulk of the activity. And more broadly, on the densification question that you raised, there will be some densification in the network that happens from additional towers that will be filled in. But as we have talked about extensively on these calls and in other situations, a big portion of that densification really cannot be accomplished with macro sites. They can't be any closer together and there's nowhere to build them. Most of that densification, particularly in dense urban areas, we believe is going to come from small cells. And that's consistent with the large commitments that we've received out of both T-Mobile and Verizon and the activity that we see underway across the top markets in the US, where they need to densify their network and they're doing so in large part with the use of small cells. And the traffic that we see going across those small cells is significant. So these small cells that are being deployed, it's working to densify their network and reuse that spectrum again and again over smaller areas, which is the core of how the shared infrastructure model has worked for 25 years. The opportunity to deploy equipment on shared assets that we own drives the ability for the carriers to provide more capacity to the network, which gets consumed by the users, and we're seeing that at play in small cells. So portends good things over the long period of time as those 5G networks densify beyond the initial activity.
Brett Feldman:
Okay. Thank you.
Operator:
And next, we'll hear from Ric Prentiss with Raymond James.
Ric Prentiss:
Thanks. Good morning everyone.
Jay Brown :
Good morning, Ric.
Ric Prentiss:
First, thanks for the disclosure. I've been a big advocate on removing prepaid amortization rent from AFFO. So I really appreciate you guys laying out at exhibit. I want to come back to one of David's questions. What are the underlying assumptions on what kind of prepaid rent you'll receive over those time frames? Because clearly, that's a great thing when your customers want to pay you to help fund capital. But just couple us understand what maybe the underlying assumption is for what kind of prepaid rent you'll receive this year, I think you were thinking maybe $400 million.
Jay Brown:
That is right. It is $400 million. And as you pointed out, the amount of prepaid rent we receive will be dictated by both the amount of capital we spend, therefore, the activity that we see and the negotiations that we have with our customers and how much they are going to foot of that and those are ongoing discussions at all times. So, there's nothing I can point to that would say, it would be significantly different than the $400 million that we see in 2022. But then there's also not a specific forecast we can give on that at this point.
Ric Prentiss:
Okay. Second question, I appreciate you guys emphasizing nodes on air, 5,000 this year, 10,000 next year. Is that a gross or net number? I know at one point, there was a thought that you would have maybe 5,000 nodes come off here next year with the T-Mobile Sprint thing?
Dan Schlanger:
That's our gross number. That's the number that we're going to build this year and next year. And you're right, we did mention when we did the T-Mobile transaction earlier this year that we expect to see some churn in small cells. They have the ability to remove about $45 million of Sprint small cells. We think a majority of that will happen in 2023. So, the net number will be lower than that 10,000. And as we get into giving guidance for next year and then as we get into the year, we'll update the numbers, obviously, as we go from there.
Ric Prentiss:
Makes sense. And can you update us as far as how many nodes on air you have now? And any change in the trends as far as how much outsourcing carriers are doing as far as self-performing small cells versus outsourcing it to third parties?
Jay Brown:
Yes. On air, we're north of 55,000 now. And so, on track this year to put on air 5,000 total for the full year, as I mentioned. In terms of broadly the activity and the conversations, I think there are two things that are at play that are consistent with the way we thought the business would play out. One is that, the shared solution is a much lower cost deployment than for people to build it themselves, exactly the same dynamic that we saw in towers where it was not the most cost-effective way for each carrier to build their own towers. They shared assets. And as the tower model developed and there was a third-party owner, the carriers co-located on those towers rather than continuing to build their own infrastructure in places where there was a shared solution because it was so much more cost effective. The same thing is playing out with small cells. To the extent that there's a third-party owner that's either willing to put up capital or there are existing assets there, that the carriers can use, that's the most cost-effective and timely solution, and we're seeing significant co-location as a result of that dynamic. There are also -- the second thing I would mention about this, there are also places where we will choose not to put capital to work because we don't see the opportunity to drive returns that are sufficient to cover our cost of capital and beat our opportunity costs. So, there are places in the United States where ultimately, we're choosing not to put capital and the carriers will build it themselves because there's not an economic -- at least in our view, not an economic opportunity there to deploy a shared infrastructure model. So, I think in large part most of the activity will be – will end up on third-party shared infrastructure. We feel like we're very well positioned to capture that and certainly, in the dense urban markets in the US, that's true. As it moves out beyond those dense urban markets, well, then we'll study carefully whether or not it makes sense for us to deploy the capital. But we'll see carriers continue to use their own capital to deploy some markets.
Ric Prentiss:
Appreciate it. Stay well.
Jay Brown:
Thank you.
Operator:
And moving on, we'll go to Jon Atkin with RBC.
Jon Atkin:
Thanks very much. So I was interested in getting a little bit of a more breakdown on the Fiber segment. And you talked about enterprise there's education, there's financial services, other -- various other categories. And just any trends to call out that you're seeing this year? And then any kind of macro impacts on those drivers within Fiber solutions that you see coming on? And then secondly, as you think about prospective Fiber and small cell deployment, any color around the mix of major versus minor league cities and where you see yourself kind of expanded?
Jay Brown:
Sure. Thanks, Jon. Good morning. On your first question, there's no trend lines that I would really call out. As I mentioned, most of the activity that we're doing, whether it's for very large enterprises, government, financial institutions, universities, those have been relatively stable through economic cycles. And so I really wouldn't call out any trends that are changing in the business. We think we'll grow that business about 3% this year and the activity across the various segments in that business is relatively similar. The one thing I probably would call out in the business is, as we've continued to operate it. And as the market starts to -- as the market develops towards 5G, I think the opportunities that we're seeing where there's a convergence between wireline and wireless have created some opportunities for us on the wireless side for potential tenants that are outside of the big four wireless operators. And we think that's where we really shine as a company in terms of being able to capture some of those opportunities. And that would be relatively new as 5G has been deployed and people start to deploy and think about uses of spectrum in ways beyond what people more traditionally think about that. And that has been beneficial, and we think there's more opportunity in years to come on that front. On your second question around the mix of CapEx between major and minor league markets. I mean the bulk of the capital that we spent to date, and I think this will continue to be true, we'll be in kind of those top 30 to 50 markets in the US. That's where the densest populations are, obviously, and where the majority of growth in data traffic is occurring. And so most of the capital and focus is continuing to occur around building out those markets and handling the growth in data traffic and the densification that's needed in those networks. Once it gets beyond kind of those top 30 to 50 markets, there's really disparate outcomes around whether or not the dynamics in the market makes sense for small cell deployments. And for our interest in investment in deploying those small cell markets. So I think as far as we can see in the next several years, I think we're going to be mostly focused on spending the capital in the top markets.
Jon Atkin:
And then I'm interested in the backlog conversion within small cells and how much of the pace of that is dictated around when the carrier just sort of gives the green light to kind of continue with the process around provisioning versus your own ability to use or maybe there's other factors that I haven't identified. But pace of backlog conversion how can that change going forward? You talked about the 5,000 to 10,000, but maybe to put a finer point on what are the factors behind that and converting that into revenues? Thanks.
Jay Brown:
Yes, Jon, you've correctly identified the two most important characteristics. One is the coordination with our customers and the timing with which they're receiving equipment and wanting to put those sites on air and the identification of exactly where those nodes are going to be located. That's an important part in the early planning stages of the process. And then the second part is navigating through the various municipality and utility requirements in order to deploy the small cells, which has a big impact on the time line of how long between once we and our customers agree on the exact locations that they want has the biggest determinant of how long does it take to put those on air. So I wouldn't call out anything in terms of a change there. We're working closely with our customers. They're obviously anxious to get the sites on air. There's been a lot of work that's been done on the planning associated with deploying small cells, and that has increased with our expected doubling of activity going into 2023 as well as all of the activity that's going on behind the scenes, us working on municipality and utility coordination in order to ensure that we're able to construct those and grow them as we go into 2023.
Dan Schlanger:
Yes. And Jon, this is Dan. Just one other point of clarification there is with that coordination with the customers that we go through one impact it has is whether they ultimately decide to go on systems where we've already built small cells or whether we build greenfield and that will have an impact on how fast we can then put them on air. So the more that they decide to go to co-location, the faster we'll go through the backlog, the more they decide to go greenfield. It will take longer.
Jon Atkin:
Thank you.
Operator:
And next, we'll go to Phil Cusick with JPMorgan.
Phil Cusick:
Hi guys. Thanks. I was going to dig into exactly that. What do you see in the proof points for that runway for that acceleration in 2023? And does it make sense that, that 10,000 in 2023 will be mostly second half weighted?
Jay Brown:
Yes. Good morning, Phil, certainly, the activity and proof points are the pre-work that's being coordinated with the carriers. And in order for us to turn on sites in 2023, at this point, we basically have to have them identified and be working on getting them constructed. So we've got a lot of visibility on what nodes we believe we'll be able to turn on in 2023. So beyond that, I don't know that there's much else to mention, we -- the coordination activities and the work that has to be done with municipalities is ongoing associated with that. So -- we've got to continue to do that well. But most of the activity around identifying exactly what sites those are has already occurred. So we feel good about where we're going to come out 2023.
Phil Cusick:
And does that 2023, 10,000 look more sort of co-location versus the new footprint?
Jay Brown:
Well, there's going to be a mix of co-location and new. We've talked about we've transitioned from several years ago of being almost exclusively new builds, but we'll have a combination of new builds and co-location. As I mentioned in the comments, since 2018. When we look at total nodes, we've added, we're about a third of the total nodes have been co-location. And as we get into next year and start to give you more specificity, we'll be clear about what we see from a co-location versus new build in where those are occurring.
Phil Cusick:
Thanks. Last thing from me. Should we assume that, that $45 million in revenue from Sprint goes away at the beginning of the year, or are there indications that they might sort of stretch that out.
Jay Brown:
Are you referring to my reference to the churn on small cells?
Phil Cusick:
Yes.
Jay Brown:
Yes. We -- what we've indicated previously is that we expect in 2023, a majority of that $45 million to occur, but we haven't been specific about exactly when in the year it would occur. So as we get towards October and we give guidance, we'll be more specific about the impact on our 2023 numbers. But there's, at risk, about $45 million of annual run rate, and we think the majority of that occurs in 2023.
Phil Cusick:
Thanks, Jay.
Jay Brown:
Yes.
Operator:
And next, we'll hear from Michael Rollins with Citi.
Michael Rollins:
Thanks and good morning. Two questions. First, earlier on the call, you mentioned that the performance was better than you originally expected. And just curious where you may be seeing that in some of the organic leasing numbers or if that's something that potentially comes through in the back half of the year? And then just secondly, in terms of capital allocation, just back to that topic, how do you think about over time when you think of cash AFFO per share growth, do you want, over time, to create more flexibility and coverage of that over time, or do you like the current payout that's been over the last few years on cash AFFO per share that's been close to 100%.
Jay Brown:
Sure. Good morning, Mike. On your first question, the comments around the business has performed a little better. Certainly, from a tower standpoint, over a multiyear basis, we're well above the average of historical. And we're in the middle of a multiyear acceleration around the activity and growth in towers. And a little bit of movements inside of the year. But the real call out we were trying to make in our comments and the adjustment to the full year outlook was around services. And that's a combination of we've captured a little bit more of the activity, so capture rate has gone up a little bit and then better economics than what we expected has been the big driver of kind of operating performance that we were adjusting the outlook for in the numbers that we provided last night. On your second question around how we think about the payout, let me start big picture and then we can talk about -- I'll make some comments about any given year. Big picture, as we've talked about our guide of believing we can grow the dividend at 7% to 8% per year over a long period of time. In order to come up with that statement, we're looking at what we believe the two most important assumptions in that, what we believe around those two assumptions. One assumption is what do we think the leasing activity is going to be over a long period of time. And then the second key assumption is what is the impact of interest expense against that. Those are the two most impactful to our long-term model And on the leasing side, when we look out over a long period of time, we see tremendous growth coming from 5G. That's going to benefit us both on the tower side and on the small cell side as the networks densify, so a lot of activity, both for towers and small cells over a long period of time and growing over a multiyear basis that gives us a lot of top line comfort that we're going to be able to drive that bottom line result over time. The part of that, that we've also talked about is some of the offsets to that growth as T-Mobile acquired Sprint. We've talked about the churn that we expect in 2025. There's about $200 million of churning off Sprint sites in 2025. And then the comments I was just making a couple of minutes ago, on small cells related to Sprint, are some offsets to that. So we're considering the offset against what we think is really a long-term growth at the top line. So that's the driver of one of the two assumptions on the top line growth, I feel like we're in a great environment for that. The second assumption that's really critical to what we think about long-term growth is our expectation around interest expense. And Dan made some comments in his prepared remarks that alluded to this, but we had an assumption over a long period of time that we would see interest rates come back to a more normalized level than where we've been with just historically incredibly low interest rates that we've been able to capture and take advantage of on the balance sheet. In the short term, those long rates have accelerated at a pace at a historically high pace. So our long-term model assumed that we would revert more to a more normalized average level of cost and expense. And we have accelerated into that -- closer to that average expense at a rate much faster than, I think, anybody previously expected. So over the long term, that has almost no impact to our model or our expectations of growth. Over the shorter term, when it moves up that much, well, it has an impact to our 2022 interest expenses we put into the guide. And then it has, obviously, an impact as we think about what happens in 2023, depending on where interest rate assumptions are. So as we think about any given year, we take those broader assumptions, what do we think about growth, both for towers and small cells against any movements in interest expense and underlying rates and use that the balance to come out with where we believe kind of in the near term or shorter term periods of time where that cash flow is going to be. That gets us down to, I think, kind of the heart of your question of how do we think about the payout over time. Our view is that the cash flow that's generated from the business, we should be returning that to shareholders. and then we'll finance any capital expenditures that are needed because the opportunity to invest that capital comes with returns well in excess of the cost of the capital and allows us flexibility to think about it to ensure that we're appropriately getting returns on the capital that we're taking from shareholders and debt holders to finance those activities. So we like the discipline of paying out the cash flow playing out the cash flow in the business. So hopefully, that's helpful to your question around how we're thinking about it. Nothing has changed on that front. I still think the best approach is to be disciplined and pay out the cash flow. And then as we look at any given year, we'll look at the ins and outs and be thoughtful about how we adjust the dividend from current levels. And last thing I'll say is when we give guidance in October, as has been our practice, we would expect to make that dividend adjustment as we have in past years in the same way that we've done in past periods. So -- and the next time we're talking we'll likely be talking about the adjustment we're making to the dividend as well as the update for our 2023 outlook.
Q – Michael Rollins:
Thanks.
Operator:
And moving on, we'll go to Matt Niknam with Deutsche Bank.
Matt Niknam:
Hey guys, thanks for taking the questions. Just two, if I could. First, on discretionary CapEx. So as you get closer to 2023, seeing we have better visibility on the new notes that come on air. How should we think about a presumable increase in discretionary CapEx relative to this year's low $1 billion range? And then secondly, we've talked about a lot about some of the moving parts for 2023, whether it's amortization of prepaid rent, Sprint small cell churn, some rising interest rates, we can extrapolate. I know you're going to give guidance for 2023 in October, and I don't want to jump the gun, but is there any maybe initial framework or just range you can provide in terms of how you're thinking about AFFO per share both next year relative to that traditional 7% to 8% you've talked about in the past? Thanks.
Dan Schlanger:
Hey, Matt, it's Dan. I'll take the first question on discretionary CapEx. Yeah, we're going to be 1:1 to 1:2 range in 2022. And as we've discussed, we believe that there will be an increase in the amount of the number of small cells that we're going to put on air in 2023 over what we're putting on air in 2022. Generally speaking, that will come with more capital. The amount more capital will depend on all the things we were talking about previously about the discussions with our customers when the small cells will go on air, how many will be colocated versus new builds. So we don't have a way of framing that yet. But like you mentioned in your question, as we get to October, we'll give more definition around what that 2023 capital could look like, although we would expect just given the acceleration in the number of small cells that it will be higher than what we've seen in 2022. And in terms of your second question around our initial framework for AFFO per share growth, I think you answered part of it is we're going to give guidance in October. And you hit on a lot of the aspects that may have an impact on that 2023 growth. It's the continuation of the growth trends we've seen in our business, both on the towers and small cell side. And then how the impacts will shake out between all the things you mentioned, interest expense and AFFO, the prepaid rent amortization. But we've given a lot of that context to date. There's nothing more that we can point to now until we get to October, and I think give you all of the information that you're looking for.
Matt Niknam:
That’s great. Thanks Dan.
Operator:
And next, we'll go to Nick Del Deo with MoffettNathanson.
Nick Del Deo:
Hey, good morning guys. Thanks for taking my questions. First, Jay, a few minutes ago, you talked a little bit about the potential for non-traditional or new tenants on your towers. Were you suggesting that your assessment of the likelihood of one of those potential customers becoming a real customer in coming periods is higher than you might have thought a year or two ago, or was there not really a change in your view there?
Jay Brown:
Good morning Nick, I think my comment was specifically towards the value that we're seeing created by having a comprehensive offering of fiber, small cells and towers. It puts us in conversations with customers or potential customers that I don't think we would have identified without the more robust product offering. And so yes, I would say there are some customers that we have bumped into, and we think we'll get the benefit over time that we would not have anticipated. I don't know that I would go all the way to where you went to in terms of significant -- are we talking about -- this is -- that any one of those customers is going to end up looking like one of our big four customers. I don't -- I think the likelihood of that, at least at the moment is relatively low. However, the combined activity is meaningful to our growth. And I think over the long-term, we're going to see people enter this space and deploy wireless networks that will have a combination of small cells and towers that will be additive to our growth rate.
Nick Del Deo:
Okay. Okay. Appreciate that clarification. And then maybe a second one on small cells. You always note that you price small cells based on yield. When you sign small cell deals, is the pricing based on the cost you estimate at the time the deals are signed, or is it based on realized costs, or maybe stated a bit differently, if the cost to deploy small cells ends up being higher than you initially modeled for whatever reason, is that a risk you bear or does the customer bear that risk? I'm just trying to think about any cost inflation risk associated with your large small cell backlog?
Jay Brown:
Sure. Thanks for the question. So the way we would negotiate with customers would be based on the cost of deploying in various markets. So -- if you took a market and the cost was relatively low, the price to deploy that market to the customer would be lower than the price being at a higher cost or more dense area. And so the cost is variable to the customer ultimately based on the cost of deployment, which is how when we talk about yield at the way that we price that, we've got to have security in terms of ultimately, once we get to the point where we're actually building the nodes to know we're going to be secure on yield, not thinking about it as a fixed price otherwise those yields -- obviously, those yields would be at risk at that point.
Nick Del Deo:
Okay. So just to be clear, if the cost of a node in a particular market to which a customer is committed, if it ends up being more expensive to deploy there than you initially expected -- you're suggesting the customer ultimately pays more to compensate for that?
Jay Brown:
Well, I think there's a continuum, right? So when we signed customer agreements and they make large commitments to us over time, we're not bearing the risk of inflation if that's the way you're thinking about announced contracts that we've talked about. Once we get to the place where we've committed with a customer that we're going to build a node, and we've told them what the cost of that associated, if we're not good at actually operating and constructing that node, then that risk is ours, that's operating risk. So depending on where in the continuum we are, we could have potential risk if we haven't done a good job estimating and pricing the activity. But we've been very good at that and have good visibility into where the costs have gone and our operating teams have done a terrific job of operating those budgets to the levels that were underwritten.
Nick Del Deo:
Okay. Okay. Got it. Thank you, Jay.
Jay Brown:
Did that answer your question?
Nick Del Deo:
Yes, yes, it did. Thanks.
Jay Brown:
All right. I think we have time for one more question.
Operator:
Thank you. And that will come from Brandon Nispel with KeyBanc Capital Markets.
Brandon Nispel:
Okay. Great. Thank you for taking the questions and squeezing me in. I was hoping to ask on the organic growth guidance. Could you talk about the variability in core leasing activity from 1Q which was $92 million to 2Q, which was $75 million. And where really do you expect to exit the year? And hopefully, you can sort of outline that in terms of towers versus the small cell and fiber business? Then similar question on churn, you guided to $185 million for the year, but you're only at $81 million year-to-date. Where do you expect churn to finish the year at? Thank you.
Dan Schlanger:
Sure. Let me take the first question first. The variability from Q1 to Q2. Excuse me. As we pointed out last quarter, we had some non-recurring items that hit Q1. When you normalize for that, the organic growth is relatively flat. And there are going to be some increases and decreases on a quarter-to-quarter basis, which is why when we talk about our business, we talk about the yearly growth. And in 2022, we're seeing what we believe will be 6% organic growth for our tower business. And that's generally consistent across the year. So you can see what that exit rate will look like is pretty consistent with the amount that we see in each of the first two quarters be normalized for those non-recurring items. With respect to churn, as you know, most of the churn in our business is a result of our Fiber Solutions operations. And we do expect some of that churn to increase over the course of the year, but we believe that the 3% overall growth rate will maintain, as Jay has spoken to a few times on the call. And that's, again, a lot of timing around that churn because that's a faster velocity business because things just happen faster. So there can be some changes period to period. But again, we like to look at that as an overall one-year type of look. And we see the growth bookings and churn very much in line with what we had in our outlook. So around high single-digit churn, which means the low double-digits gross bookings to get us to the 3% net growth in the fiber solutions business.
Brandon Nispel:
If I could just follow up real quick on that, Dan. Did you say 6% net organic growth for towers? I thought the previous guide was maybe 5%. And I guess, are we picking up an extra point on the growth side or on the churn side? Thanks.
Dan Schlanger:
Got it. Overall, that our growth in the tower business is around 6%, and that is no change from our previous outlook.
Brandon Nispel:
Okay. Thank you for clarifying.
Jay Brown:
Okay. Thanks, everybody for joining us this morning, and thanks to our team for doing a great job through the first half of this year. We look forward to finishing 2022 strong. And laying out our guidance for 2023, the next time we're together in October. Thanks so much.
Operator:
Thank you. And that does conclude today's call. We'd like to thank everyone for their participation. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Good day, and welcome to the Crown Castle Q1 2022 Earnings Call. Today's conference is being recorded. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Mr. Ben Lowe, Senior Vice President of Corporate Finance. Please go ahead, sir.
Ben Lowe:
Great. Thank you, Cody, and good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us today as we discuss our first quarter 2022 results. With me on the call this morning are Jay Brown, Crown Castle's Chief Executive Officer; and Dan Schlanger, Crown Castle's Chief Financial Officer. To aid the discussion, we have posted supplemental materials in the Investors section of our website at crowncastle.com that will be referenced throughout the call this morning. This conference call will contain forward-looking statements, which are subject to certain risks, uncertainties and assumptions and the actual results may vary materially from those expected. Information about potential factors which could affect our results is available in the press release and the Risk Factors sections of the company's SEC filings. Our statements are made as of today, April 21, 2022, and we assume no obligation to update any forward-looking statements. In addition, today's call includes discussions of certain non-GAAP financial measures. Tables reconciling these non-GAAP financial measures are available in the supplemental information package in the Investors section of the company's website at crowncastle.com. With that, let me turn the call over to Jay.
Jay Brown:
Thanks, Ben, and good morning, everyone. Thanks for joining us on the call. As you saw from our first quarter results yesterday and our increased full year outlook, the strength of the US market continues to stand out. We are seeing the benefits of a strong leasing environment as we support our customers' deployment of 5G. As a result, we expect to deliver another year of 6% organic tower revenue growth in 2022, once again leading the tower industry in the US. I'm also excited about the progress our team is making to scale our small cell capabilities to accelerate the pace of deployments from approximately 5,000 nodes we expect to deliver this year to more than 10,000 per year starting in 2023. Looking further out, I believe our strategy and unmatched portfolio of more than 40,000 towers and approximately 115,000 small cells on air or under contract, and 80,000 route miles of fiber concentrated in the top US markets have positioned Crown Castle to generate 7% to 8% growth in dividends per share for years to come. Dan will discuss the financial results and increased outlook, so I'll concentrate my comments on our strategy to deliver the highest risk-adjusted returns for our shareholders by growing our dividend and investing in assets that will generate future growth. Consistent with our long-held view, we remain focused on the US because we believe it represents the best market in the world for wireless infrastructure ownership when considering both growth and risk. As you can see on slide 3, this strategy has produced tremendous results for shareholders with a combination of significant growth and a high-quality dividend. Since the establishment of the 5G standards, and the start of the associated network upgrade in 2017, we have delivered double-digit annual AFFO per share growth, which, when added to our approximately 3% dividend yield over that same time period, generated returns of approximately 14% per year to our shareholders, which has led the tower industry over this time period. Our growth has been driven by our customers investing $30 billion to $40 billion annually in their network, with the deployment of more spectrum and cell sites to keep pace with the rapid growth in mobile data demand. Because the market fundamentals are so compelling, the US market continues to attract an outsized amount of capital investment by network operators. According to industry estimates, wireless operators in North America are expected to account for more than 30% of global mobile network investment through 2025, which is staggering when you consider those same operators address less than 5% of the world's population. This outside investment in the U.S. is understandable when you look at the fundamentals in the U.S. relative to other markets. As you can see on slide 4, the amount of data consumed monthly per user and the ability for wireless operators to charge for that data consumption, therefore, justifying further investments are significantly higher in the U.S. This slide illustrates the virtuous circle that has developed in the U.S. wireless market and that we believe is sustainable over the long-term. Over the last couple of decades, U.S. carriers have invested hundreds of billions of dollars to develop a wireless networks, which has created a platform for innovation and ubiquitous connectivity. As a result of the quality of the network and the user experience, U.S. consumers have used their wireless devices more-and-more, and they have been willing and able to pay more for that improving mobile experience. In turn, U.S. carriers have taken the higher cash flows generated from customers and invested in their networks and the cycle continues, as evidenced by U.S. carriers investing more than $200 billion into their networks, including spectrum and CapEx over the last four years. We believe we are best positioned to benefit from this virtuous cycle in the U.S. with towers, small cells and fiber, all of which are necessary for the deployment of 5G. With the three established network operators and a new intranet scale and DISH, all upgrading and developing nationwide 5G networks, the fundamentals in the U.S. market are as positive as I can remember during my 20-plus years at Crown Castle. We have invested more than $40 billion of capital to-date in towers and more recently, small cells and fiber that are mission-critical for wireless networks to pursue this opportunity. We are currently generating a 10% return on our total invested capital with the opportunity to increase that return overtime as we add customers on our tower and fiber assets and grow our cash flow. To that point, we are seeing significant demand for our infrastructure solutions with our customers upgrading thousands of tower sites for 5G, while also preparing for the next phase of network densification that will require tens of thousands of small cells, as reflected in our record backlog of 60,000 small cell nodes. Importantly, we benefit from these superior growth trends while being leveraged solely to the favorable dynamics in the U.S. wireless market. As compared to international markets, we believe the U.S. not only has the best growth profile as I just discussed, but it also has the lowest risk resulting from a supportive market structure that incentivizes carriers to spend on improving their networks as they compete on network quality, resulting in less churn on our assets. No exposure to loss of value from foreign currencies and social and governmental policies that, are stable and supportive of improving connectivity and expanding broadband access. Because we believe the U.S. has both greater growth potential and lower risk, we are focusing our investments solely in the U.S. We have an unmatched portfolio of assets that is producing growing cash flows by providing access to existing and new customers that are building 5G networks. And we are investing in new small cell and fiber assets that our customers need for their wireless networks, which we believe increases our ability to capitalize on 5G growth trend. As a result of these actions, I believe Crown Castle offers shareholders a unique opportunity to benefit from the deployment and development of wireless networks in the US. In the near to medium-term, we expect to once again deliver the highest tower revenue growth rate in the US with 6% organic growth, and we are preparing for an acceleration in small cell deployments beginning in 2023 following the recent inflection in demand from our customers. Longer term, we believe we are the only communications infrastructure company positioned for the future of 5G networks that will require network densification with small cells at scale. By continuing to invest in small cell and fiber assets, we believe we will be able to extend the runway of 7% to 8% annual growth in dividends per share. When I consider the durability of the underlying demand trends we see in the US that provides significant visibility into the anticipated future growth for our business, the deliberate decisions we have made to reduce the risks associated with our strategy and our history of steady execution, I believe Crown Castle stands out as an excellent investment that will generate compelling returns over time. And with that, I'll turn the call over to Dan before we take some questions.
Dan Schlanger:
Thanks, Jay, and good morning, everyone. As Jay mentioned, we are encouraged by the continued high activity levels we are experiencing, which are driven by our customers' 5G upgrade and densification initiatives. Starting with our first quarter results on page 5. We began the year on a very positive note with AFFO per share growth of 9% and adjusted EBITDA growth of 22% that were driven by strong demand from our customers. As I mentioned last quarter, we are now reporting organic revenue growth exclusive of the impact of prepaid rent amortization or what we refer to as organic contribution to site rental billings. In the first quarter, we generated 6% core organic revenue growth, driven by more than 9% from core leasing activity and contracted escalators, net of approximately 3% from non-renewals. Revenues were also positively impacted by approximately $15 million from items not expected to recur in 2022, with approximately $10 million in fiber solutions and the balance in towers. Turning to page 6. I want to briefly walk through the increase to our full year 2022 outlook. As a result of higher tower activity levels, we are increasing our expectations for site rental revenues by $40 million due to higher expected straight-line revenues as well as increasing the expected contribution from our services business by $20 million. These changes result in a $60 million increase to adjusted EBITDA, while the outlook for AFFO remains unchanged, because the higher straight-lined revenue does not contribute to AFFO and the additional contribution from our services business is offset by a $20 million increase in expected interest expense resulting from higher interest rates. Turning to page 7. Expected organic growth to site rental billings remains unchanged at 5% for the full year 2022, consisting of approximately 6% growth from towers, 6% growth from small cells and 3% fiber solutions growth. Because organic growth to site rental billings is a new metric, we have included a comparison of this metric to our previous organic growth in site rental revenues on pages 10 and 11 of our supplemental materials. Turning to the balance sheet. We finished the quarter with 4.8 times debt to adjusted EBITDA, approximately nine years of weighted average term remaining, a weighted average interest rate of 3% and 85% of our debt tied to fixed rates. We expect our discretionary CapEx to be approximately $1.1 billion to $1.2 billion for the year or $700 million to $800 million on a net basis, when factoring in $400 million of prepaid rent contributions from our customers. We are managing the balance sheet so we can continue to pursue investment opportunities consistent with our strategy that we believe will add to long-term dividend growth, while reducing the overall risk profile of the business to further enhance the value created for shareholders over time. With that in mind, we were able to opportunistically access the bond market during the first quarter to increase our financial flexibility while locking in attractive long-term cost of capital. As a result, we finished the quarter with more than $3 billion of available liquidity under our credit facility and only $750 million of debt maturities over the next 18 months. So to wrap up, we have invested over $40 billion in mission-critical network infrastructure assets in the US to position ourselves to take advantage of the favorable growth and risk profile of the best market in the world for communications infrastructure ownership. We are excited about the demand we are seeing across our shared infrastructure offering as our customers deploy 5G at scale. We expect to once again generate industry-leading organic tower revenue growth in the US and we believe our comprehensive set of solutions across towers, small cells and fiber, which are all necessary to build wireless networks, will allow us to deliver on our annual target of 7% to 8% growth in dividends per share. And with that, Cody, I'd like to open the call to questions.
Operator:
Thank you. [Operator Instructions] We’ll take our first question from David Barden with Bank of America. Please, go ahead.
David Barden:
Hey, guys. Thanks so much for taking the questions. So, I guess, the first one, Jay, since you called them out DISH being a new carrier at scale, could you elaborate a little bit on what you mean when you say that? I think that, when we look at the national carriers, each probably spending something on the order of $10-plus billion on the networks in the next year or two. I'm wondering if you could give us a picture of kind of how you see DISH unfolding relative to them as a contributor to potential growth directionally in 2022, 2023? And then, just, I guess, a question Dan, on the $15 million one-timer you didn't call it out as a moving part in the AFFO guidance. I think that's because maybe that one-timer was already included in your outlook for 2022 when you set it. I wonder if you could kind of elaborate a little bit more on what it is and why it got called out now as opposed to not being called out previously? Thank you.
Jay Brown:
Good morning, Dave. Thanks for the questions. On the first question around DISH, we have obviously seen a significant commitment from them as they've committed to go on 20,000 of our towers nationwide. So in terms of behavior, that's a significant number of our sites nearly half the sites that we have in the US they have a commitment to go on. So that's significant in terms of the scale of the commitment that they've made. And then, as we look at the activity that we're working on them with, they're certainly behaving as a company that we would expect would get to nationwide coverage. So it's been a really long time in the US since there has been a new nationwide deployment of a network from scratch and the activity that we're seeing from DISH is consistent with their desire to build out nationwide.
Dan Schlanger:
Yes. And, David, to address the second question on the $15 million one-time or non-recurring in the first quarter. As I mentioned in the prepared remarks, it's $10 million in the fiber solutions business and $5 million in towers is related to network integration activities that are going on around T-Mobile and the Sprint consolidation. And we expected that to happen over the course of 2022 and it was therefore included in our guide. We just didn't expect it all to happen as quickly as it did and hit the first quarter. And the reason we called it out now is we didn't want people to think that that was part of our growth that could be annualized for the year and then look like our year was going to be better than we expected it to be. So we wanted to make sure everybody understood that while it was expected for the full course of the year we didn't want it to be a first quarter event that would be recurring every quarter and how people are thinking about 2022.
David Barden :
And Dan just a quick follow-up. If I was looking at the new leasing guide $230 million to $270 million now adjusted for the elimination of the amortization of upfront CapEx. Is that midpoint $250 million a good starting point for thinking about 2023, or does that $250 million have the $15 million of non-recurring stuff in it. And so the reality is it's actually $235 million? Thanks.
Dan Schlanger:
No. I think $250 is a good starting point for 2023. We have non-recurring revenues in our business on a consistent basis. We just -- so it's kind of a weird nomer, but they're just small. And so it's not something that we're going to call out every time we give the guidance. It's just in this particular case we wanted to make sure that you understood that it was happened faster. So it didn't really impact overall what 2022 is going to look like.
David Barden :
Okay. That's helpful. Thank you so much guys.
Dan Schlanger:
You bet.
Operator:
Thank you. We'll take our next question from Simon Flannery with Morgan Stanley.
Simon Flannery:
Great. Thank you very much. Good morning. There was a helpful chart looking at the U.S. in a global context. Perhaps just layer in the impact of fixed wireless. We saw some really good numbers out of T-Mobile earlier this week. Have you seen any change in behavior from the carriers about maybe accelerating densification to address that opportunity? And perhaps just a little bit more color on the capital raise and the comments about looking for incremental investment opportunities, how are you thinking about what you're going to be spending that on over the course of the year? Thanks.
Jay Brown:
Good morning. On the first question around fixed wireless, we're certainly seeing the behavior of the carriers and I've talked publicly T-Mobile did this week, as you mentioned about the opportunity there. I would put that in the broader category of the speeds that we're seeing with 5G and the very low latency opens up the opportunity for a vast variety of new applications and innovation. And I think ultimately 5G -- this is where 5G becomes so important as a platform for future investment. And in order to fully realize the value of that the applications have to come and so fixed wireless, I think is one of those applications of using the 5G spectrum that's really pretty compelling, again, with the high speeds and the low latency of the network and what we'll be able to accomplish. So it is a driver. And I think as we talk about things like the need for fiber in the network as well as small cells network densification in order to get to that ubiquitous experience for the consumer is just critical. And so we think we're going to be through a multi-year growth and densification activity from the carriers, as they build out 5G and then densify the network based on the expected growth in traffic that's coming across that network. So I think we're really well positioned for where they're headed and excited to see some of the early returns and applications that 5G is enabling. On your second question around our capital spend, everything that we do goes through a really rigorous process internally of evaluating what we think the return on every dollar of capital is going to be. And so we're focused – as we talked about in both Dan and my comments, the majority of the capital spending at the moment is focused around fiber and small cells in particular, as we're building small cells for the wireless carriers. We think it's going to remain in that category for a number of years, a number of years to come. And we're evaluating those opportunities to invest in fiber and small cells around what we believe the long-term lease-up will be for those assets. So picking the locations where we have a carrier committed to go initially as our anchor tenant and then choosing to go into places where we think there's going to be additional lease-up, and therefore, additional return on that capital that will ultimately drive returns to our shareholders, much like what we've done in the tower business for years and years. So the way, we're thinking about the capital spend and the opportunity is that it's growing, and we'll update you on the scale of that in the years to come, but as I mentioned in my comments –
Simon Flannery:
Is that an existing metros or in new metros?
Jay Brown:
The majority of what we're doing now is still in the top 30 markets, the NFL markets. What we see at the moment is mostly opportunities in the top 50, top 100 markets in the US. As it expands beyond that, we'll just have to look at what the returns are in those markets and what the opportunity for lease-up is to determine whether or not it justifies capital investment.
Simon Flannery:
Great. Thanks so much.
Dan Schlanger:
Let me hit on one of the questions you asked on the capital raise itself. I think you were trying – you were equating that with investment opportunities. We – whenever we look at our balance sheet, we look at long term versus short-term, fixed versus floating all those things. What we did earlier this year in the first quarter was term out some of the borrowings on our revolver by accessing long-term capital at a fixed rate. And that was – and then part of that also was to pay down some debt maturities that were coming due in the next 12 months to 18 months, just to prepare ourselves for a rising interest rate environment, not to prepare ourselves for incremental investments that we saw coming.
Simon Flannery:
Great. Thank you, Dan.
Operator:
Thank you. We'll hear next from Matt Niknam with Deutsche Bank.
Matt Niknam:
Hey, guys. Thanks for taking my question. So we've heard each of the national carriers, I know they're investing very aggressively right now, but I think each of Telegraph CapEx declines, either starting in 2023 or 2024. So with that in mind, I'm just wondering how you think about Crown Castle's ability to continue delivering on that 7% to 8% AFFO per share growth target over the next several years in light of these, at least contemplated CapEx clips that are coming? And then on the services strength that you called out and the increased outlook this year, just wondering if you can shed any light on whether it's a single carrier that drove the upside or whether the strength is a little bit more broad-based? Thanks.
Jay Brown:
Sure. Good morning, Matt. Thanks for the questions. On the CapEx around network improvement, I think I would step back and look at what has been invested by the carriers. I made reference to the fact that over the last four years, they've invested over $200 million -- $200 billion in both capital spending for network deployment as well as the acquisition of additional spectrum. That's about half-and-half roughly between investment in new spectrum and investment in CapEx. And most of that spectrum that's been acquired has been acquired inside of the last 12 to 18 months. So, there's a significant amount of investment that the carriers have made in spectrum. And the absolute best environment for us is the infrastructure provider with the carriers is times when they have fallow spectrum, new spectrum and capital in order to deploy that spectrum. And so, as we look at the long-term opportunities here for deployment of additional network resources by the carriers, we think the environment sets up really nicely for an extended period of time and a long runway of growth. And so when we look at our 7% to 8% growth in the dividend over the long-term we're obviously looking at a number of a number of different scenarios as to how it plays out. But the length of time that we believe it will take as the carriers build out 5G is a very long period of time. So, we think about it in terms of decades, more than we think about it in terms of quarters or a year or two. And so, we think the environment sets up nicely for an extended period of time of us being able to build on our dividend growth of 7% to 8%. I will mention we talked about this last quarter just briefly here that, we have -- in 2025. We have the tower churn of about $250 million related to the T-Mobile agreement. And so in that one year we do expect that the 7% to 8% -- we won't get all the way to 7% to 8% in that year. But other than that in the environment that we're in, we think there's plenty of investment that will continue to run the network in order for us to be able to drive that 7% to 8% annually. On your second question around services it's broad-based. We're seeing, an uplift in terms of activity around the tower business across the board from all of our carrier customers. And as I mentioned in my comments the environment is very attractive with all three of them deploying and DISH in addition to that. So,...
Dan Schlanger:
Wanted to clarify one thing, Jay said, $250 million in 2025 is $200 million. So before everybody starts to spin up on that, it's $200 million. And there has been no change since we announced it last time.
Jay Brown:
Thanks Dan.
Dan Schlanger:
Yeah.
Matt Niknam:
Dan, you took away the next follow-up which I had, so great. Thank you. I felt its coming.
Operator:
Thank you. We'll take our next question from Ric Prentiss with Raymond James.
Ric Prentiss:
Thanks. Good morning everybody.
Dan Schlanger:
Good morning, Ric.
Ric Prentiss:
Hi. First appreciate more disclosure in the supplement on the prepaid -- amortization of prepaid rent history on page 18 it's an item I'm always interested in. Two questions along those lines. Obviously amortization of prepaid rent had grown from 2019 to 2020 to 2021. We're expecting it kind of flattish year-over-year from 2021 to 2022. It then shows drops in 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 I assume part of that is just you don't have new contracts coming in, but are we thinking that the amortization of prepaid rent should drop down into more like the 300 to 400 level, or is there a new business expected maybe to come in that would keep it up elevated?
Dan Schlanger:
Yeah Rick. I'll take that. First, I'm glad that you like the new disclosure. We do try to respond when people give us some of that input and that's what you're seeing with this -- the concept that we're throwing in now. We do get new business and therefore get contributions from our customers that add to prepaid rent amortization over time. It's just that we had so much of that historically especially in our tower business that the amount rolling off is bigger than the amount that's being added on which is why you're seeing a reduction over time in prepaid rent amortization in those years that you're talking about. We do not anticipate spending enough money in our tower business to make up for that in those years just because the demand for the amount of increased activity on our towers isn't such that we would have that much capital to spend. But that I think is just ultimately a sign of a really good business that people were willing to pay for all of the upgrades we did a long time ago. And what you're seeing now is a tremendous increase in the revenue and cash flow generation on the assets without any incremental capital going in which is why you're seeing the returns and yields on the tower business growing as fast as they are on a year-over-year basis.
Ric Prentiss:
Okay. And the line of no-good deed goes unpunished any thoughts of being able to break out that amortization of prepaid rent then between tower and small cell fiber as you think about into the future to help us kind of model the different segments and your growth rates?
Dan Schlanger:
Yes. And as you know we do it on an actual basis to try to give you a lot of sense for what that is. And we -- as we've talked about now with the concept of billings as opposed to revenues and then putting the prepaid rent amortization into other. You can get a lot of that information. We give a lot of that information for the current year. We're not going to break it out for every year going forward.
Ric Prentiss:
Okay. Related question the prepaid rent received I think you called out you're expecting it probably to be about $400 million this year. Any thoughts into the future just not asking for an actual forecast, but ’18 and ’19 it was more like $600 million. Now it's in the $400 million range. Any thoughts on where that might head overtime? Is $400 a better number or $600 a better number as you think about what that contribution back to you might run at?
Dan Schlanger:
As Jay mentioned earlier, a lot of the capital that we're spending right now is on our fiber and small cell business and therefore a lot of the contribution is happening in that business. As we ramp up the nodes that we'll be putting on air, we've talked about it will likely lead to an increase in the capital that's associated with that. And I think that would potentially come with additional capital contributions. So I can't tell you that $400 million is the right number or $600 million is the right number because it's really going to depend on how quickly those -- that capital ramps up and how much we're going to get back from our customers. But there's no set level that I would say is something that you can expect. It's really tied to the amount of capital that we're spending to invest in our assets.
Ric Prentiss:
Makes sense. One more for me...
Jay Brown:
Rick. I know you...
Ric Prentiss:
Yes go ahead Jay.
Jay Brown:
Yes. I was just going to go back up to a 40000-foot level when we think about straight lining the benefit of receiving some of the upfront capital from the customers and how we how we think about it that upfront capital from customers ultimately is in essence offsetting our CapEx demand in any given year. And one of the reasons why when we talk about the story and what we think the long-term prospects of the business are, we spend so much time talking about the dividend per share growth because we're looking at the cash flow capability of the entire enterprise over a long period of time. And so, as we think about managing capital investment of capital, the questions that you're asking are in essence like an offset to the initial investment that we make. And then we're thinking about what is that going to mean over a long period of time in terms of actual cash receipts in future periods and what are the impacts of that of dividends? And so, we're providing the disclosure I think to try to help everyone reconcile from the financial statements through the metrics. But as we talk about it and think about what the opportunity for return is, we tend to go back all the way down to the bottom line of dividends because we think it's the best predictor of what long-term shareholder value creation is. And moves us away from trying to do all of the infinite.
Ric Prentiss:
Makes great sense, we love cash. We love returns. We love dividends. Last one quick one probably on me. Is the interest rate updates for as interest expense up by $20 million versus prior guidance. What's your assumption now baked into what do you assume interest rates are going to be that trigger that? What was the delta that caused that change? And obviously interest rates continue to be fairly volatile.
Dan Schlanger:
When we -- the assumption is the forward LIBOR curve. And what that impact really is the 15% of our debt that is floating rate debt and how much that LIBOR curve impacts that 15%. So, when we gave guidance in October to now, that LIBOR curve is up between 100 and 150 basis points.
Ric Prentiss:
Great. That helps a lot. Thanks guys. Continue to stay well.
Dan Schlanger:
Thanks, Ric.
Operator:
Thank you. We'll hear next from Jon Atkin with RBC Capital Markets.
Jon Atkin:
Thanks very much. A couple of questions. One is you kind of beat estimates on course leasing revenues, but absent the straight-line adjustments you kind of maintained the guidance. So I just wondered, what leads to kind of your parent incremental caution on the rest of the year for site leasing? And then the second question is, as we think about fiber solutions so ex-small cells or just kind of classic fiber light tower and those sorts of revenue streams, what are the -- how is that trending? How is your outlook difference in terms of things that you see greater opportunities for and maybe areas where you don't see [indiscernible]? Thanks.
Dan Schlanger:
Yes, Jon, I'll take the first one. I'm not sure I got the full extent of your question. So if I don't answer it directly, we just ask it again. But we kept the core leasing going forward because we think that the demand in our business is going to be very similar to what we anticipated in October. The beat in the first quarter was mostly due to those nonrecurring items which is why we called them out. If you remove that from the tower business, the growth in site rental billings was around 6% for the quarter and that's what we're expecting for the year. So I don't think there's a change in that at all. And it will result in kind of similar growth in the tower business going forward as the year lays out. Did that answer your question?
Jon Atkin:
In terms of putting percentages aside, but looking at the volume in dollars of the amount that you beat, even if you were to include the one-timers, it seems like that would flow through to your outlook going higher, but absent straight-line adjustments your outlook stayed the same. So, within dollars not percentages, I'm not significant here, but it does appear that implicitly the guide just a bit more cautious.
Dan Schlanger:
Yes. I actually think the guide is not cautious. We're really excited about the level of activity that we see coming in and the growth that we're seeing in our business. And what we've talked about is an industry-leading growth in the tower business. We don't guide on a quarterly basis. So, it's hard to reconcile to the number you're talking to. But -- and the reason we don't guide to a quarterly basis is that, we really do think about this business as Jay talked about in terms of decades, not quarters. So, the best we can get to is about a year. And what we're seeing again is just a level -- robust level of activity that's leading to tower-leading growth. And we're -- we actually don't feel like it's conservative. We feel like it's a really good outlook going into 2022 and we're maintaining it, because we see that activity level continuing.
Jay Brown:
Yeah. On your second question Jon around...I'm sorry did you want to ask Dan another question on that?
Jon Atkin:
Yeah. No, no, fair point. And then I was going to listen to you. Sorry to interrupt go ahead.
Jay Brown:
No, worry. Good morning, Jon. On your second question around what we're seeing from a fiber solution standpoint, we continue to think that we'll grow that business in and around that 3% level on a year-over-year basis. We've seen good opportunities in the space and feel like the team has done a great job continuing to run that business well. And it creates a great base of assets, as we've seen for us to be able to add small cells to those assets. And so back to my comments earlier around the way that we think about capital spending, that fiber investment that we've made, both in terms of acquisitions as well as what we've built, is based on what we believe will be future lease-up for small cells. And the activity that we've won thus far as well as activity that we see the carriers investigating that will lead to future business we believe looks like the assets are really well positioned for that. So business is performing well and the opportunity for lease-up is intact.
Jon Atkin:
Anything -- and then lastly anything on MLAs to sort of call out as things kind of roll off, or just anything in general around MLAs that you've announced in the past, we should be mindful of that might change in the future?
Jay Brown:
There's nothing to call out in the quarter or that we believe will be in the guide for 2022.
Jon Atkin:
Right. Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. We'll take our next question from Nick Del Deo with MoffettNathanson. Please go ahead.
Nick Del Deo:
Hey. Good morning, guys. Jay, you mentioned in your prepared remarks that scaling your small cell deployment capabilities to get from 5,000 nodes a year to 10,000 plus in the coming years, is really our focus for you guys. Can you talk about some of the specific steps you need to take and the areas need to beef up to build up that deployment capability? And maybe comment a bit on the degree to which any associated costs are baked into your 2022 outlook?
Jay Brown :
Sure. Good morning, Nick. Part of the scaling activity frankly is us going ahead and doing work in this year for nodes that we will turn on next year. And so, it's a reference to the activity that's ongoing while the nodes won't turn on in calendar year 2022. The work that we need to do in order to prepare to turn them on in 2023 is under -- is already underway and we feel good about our ability to get above that 10,000 nodes in 2023 and for years beyond that. We believe generally speaking that the scale of folks that we have in the organization are sufficient to meet the backlog that we have currently. Should that grow beyond and accelerate even further, we'd have to revisit the cost structure. But in general, we believe the cost structure as laid out in the guidance is sufficient to handle that level of volume.
Nick Del Deo:
Okay. Okay. Great. And then you have a prepaid rent question kind of to follow up on what Rick was asking about earlier. When do you typically receive prepaid rent for small cells relative to the on-air date? And do the large small cell contracts you've signed over the past year or so contemplate prepaid rent contributions consistent with history. I'm just trying to understand how prepaid rent for these new nodes is going to flow through your financials as the installation cadence picks up?
Jay Brown:
Generally speaking the prepaid rent would be received in and around when they're installed. So when we're counting them as on-air and the metrics that we're giving you the prepaid rent would come in commensurate with that. In terms of how we structure the recent agreements and what we're seeing we haven't seen any change in the pricing of the way that we've transacted with carriers. Keep in mind that generally these things are priced on a return basis and we've seen the pricing hold. Over the many years that we've been in the business now the pricing in the new nodes that we've recently contracted is consistent with that.
Nick Del Deo:
Okay. Great. Thanks Jay.
Jay Brown:
You bet.
Operator:
Thank you. We'll take our next question from Michael Rollins with Citi.
Michael Rollins:
Thanks and good morning. Two questions if I could. The first in the past the team has outlined that your tower locations skewed more urban and that would be an advantage for colocation whether it's C-band or DISH deployments. I'm just curious if you can give us an update on how that might be playing out through your financial performance and your leasing performance and if there's a way to quantify the advantage for Crown whether it's timing or in share? And then just as a separate topic you have fiber, you have towers. Is there a path for Crown to take a more aggressive and active role in building out metro data centers or O-RAN hubs to go after carriers clouds and enterprise for this emerging mobile edge compute opportunity?
Jay Brown:
Sure. Thanks for the questions, Mike. On your first question I think the activity as it has historically whenever there's an upgrade to a new technology it tends to -- the dollars tend to be spent in the areas that are the most densely populated in the US first. And we've certainly seen that trend in -- as 5G has started to be deployed. I think that's one of the reasons why we have industry-leading tower revenue growth at 6%. I also think it's indicative of what we're going to see on the small cell side. The vast majority of the investment that we've made in fiber and small cells has been in those top 30 markets in the US. It's the locations where we believe the vast majority of the capital will be going for the densification efforts at least in the near to medium-term. And over the long-term we think those assets much like towers have in those urban areas the investment will skew towards that urban activity and future densification. So some of the best assets are in those dense urban areas. We think we'll see a similar thing with fiber and small cells that we've seen historically with towers and are experiencing as we move into 5G already with the tower footprint. On your second question we certainly believe that there's an opportunity around edge data centers and have positioned ourselves several years ago with our investment in vapor to take advantage of that opportunity. I would put that in the category of -- that's an upside case for us. If data traffic gets to the point where edge data centers become a meaningful component of the overall wireless network an upside case in our investment in small cells and fiber. We did not underwrite that in our base case nor are we underwriting it day to day as we invest in fiber and small cells. But if you're a believer that ultimately there's going to be so much data traffic in the network that these metro data centers or edge data centers are going to be necessary for wireless. We're going to be in the upside outcomes for our small cells and fiber. And so, we're certainly positioned well for that opportunity. And I would say today it seems more probable that that's a likely outcome than what we would have said several years ago, but it's not in our base case underwrite as we think about what the growth and returns will be on the assets. But there are certainly some signs as referenced earlier in some of the questions -- in the question around fixed wireless that would suggest maybe that opportunity is growing and becoming more likely. And I would start first with the benefit we're going to get out of fiber and small cells as a result of that. And I think we're really well positioned vis-à-vis the fiber and our investment in Vapor to benefit if we get all the way to the upside cases where these edge data centers are necessary and critical components for the wireless networks.
Michael Rollins:
Thanks.
Operator:
Thank you. We hear next from Phil Cusick with JPMorgan.
Phil Cusick:
Hey, guys. Just a summary and I apologize if you pressed a few of these already. But as you think about the activity through this year, do you expect activity to be ramping through this year? It sounds like it. And then, do you think that can be maintained next year, or are there other carriers that are sort of going to be coming down do you expect? Thank you.
Jay Brown:
Phil, as we think about any given year, and I think we've talked about some on the call as we've tried to point to some of the one-time items in the first quarter. And we think about the guidance and the outlook on an annual year-over-year basis, because we think it's the best way to look at the business. As we get further into the back half of the year maybe we can be a little bit more descriptive about the ramp in activity and what we're seeing is falling into the first half versus the second half of the year. But in general, this is shaping up to be a pretty normal year in terms of the way the activity is loaded into a calendar year. I don't want to really get into giving guidance for 2023. And we typically or historically, have done that in October, and we would expect to do that again this year. So, we're two calls away from giving you an outlook for 2023.
Phil Cusick:
I guess. Thank you.
Operator:
Okay. We'll take our next question from Sami Badri with Credit Suisse.
Sami Badri:
Hi. Thank you very much for the question. Could you provide any color on what level of activity that maybe falling outside of your MLA structures with the carriers?
Jay Brown:
Sami, there's always some of this activity that we're doing that will fall outside of the MLA structures. We talked about this a little bit last quarter. The carriers, historically, as we worked with them will give us a base level of commitment of areas that they know for sure that they're going to deploy, but there's always activity -- has been historically always activity that has fallen beyond and outside of those agreements. So, probably not going to get to the place where we reconcile that down to the agreements versus what we're actually seeing. But there is activity that falls outside of that both in the tower business the small cell business as well as the services business. So we have more activity than we contemplated as we talked about that's continued to grow as we've gone into this calendar year and excited about what the implications are to our results for the year.
Sami Badri:
And then, some of these MLAs were signed quite some time ago. When you look at 2022 and 2023, is it becoming increasingly likely that there's a lot of business activity that falls outside of these MLA structures that I think the majority of the investment community actually thought was going to be more in scope to the MLAs. Has there kind of -- has there been a big change or at least something incremental than what a lot of maybe people internally at Crown have thought and have seen?
Jay Brown:
I think I want to be careful. Again we'll talk about 2023 guidance as we get into October. Broadly though if you look at what's happening in terms of demand for 5G networks, the devices being available, and the way consumers are using them, the benefit of lower latency and higher speeds are driving more traffic. And we think that is a trend that we will see continue for multi-years into the future. And it's what gives us confidence that our 7% to 8% growth in the dividend is going to continue for periods beyond just the near-term. So, we think we've positioned ourselves in a place where we own the assets that are going to be necessary for that 5G deployment with both towers and small cells and certainly see opportunities that could drive beyond our 7% to 8% growth. But we'll wait until we get to those periods to start to give you more specific guidance around when and if that activity shows up.
Sami Badri:
Got it. Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. We'll take our next question from Walter Piecyk with LightShed.
Walter Piecyk:
Thanks. Jay I wanted to go back to your comments on when you call it, I guess, this is the traditional enterprise fiber stuff fiber solution I guess is what you call it. You talked about 3% growth, but it looks like growth was more elevated in the first quarter. Can you talk about kind of what the components are there? And are you just basically being conservative in terms of your 3% growth outlook, or is my math just wrong?
Jay Brown:
Your math is not wrong. We were elevated in the first quarter. Again we give the guidance on an annual basis based on the timing of certain things the ins and outs that happen over the course of the year. We mentioned last quarter that as a part of the -- some of the integration work, we would expect about $10 million of churn in that business in the back half of the year. So, that will have an impact on how the business runs for the balance of the year and will bring us back into a little bit lower. So, that will be in the back half of -- we think it will be kind of mid-year or back half of the year as we spoke to last quarter. But all in all the business is performing as we would expect in and around that 3% growth. And importantly, it becomes kind of a base of return and yield on that fiber asset that upon which we can add small cells. So, proud of the team and how they've done managing the business. And most importantly in terms of what drives the return on that asset over the long term obviously the small cells have started to show up in significant scale and using that same fiber asset will drive the returns and the yield on the assets.
Dan Schlanger:
And the only other thing it seems like there was -- sorry go ahead.
Walter Piecyk:
No, no go ahead. Go ahead.
Dan Schlanger:
The only thing I would add is that the $10 million of one-time that we talked about in Fiber Solutions hit in the first quarter. If you back that out, I think that probably gives you a better baseline from which to do the math that you're talking about and see what the growth rate looks like. And you'll see that is closer to around that 3% than what -- just on the face of it the numbers look like for the first quarter.
Walter Piecyk:
Got it. And then when you just look at that business just a qualitative question, are you seeing any interest from fiber over-builders that like smaller guys, private equity funded or venture funded that are looking for some of your strengths in order to take fiber-to-the-home. Has that been an element of your business that you've seen yet that's been picking up or is it different than historically?
Jay Brown:
I would say there are some opportunities where we can use our fiber as backbone for some of those builds that would go into places that would not be core to our business. We have seen some of those opportunities and have captured some of those. They're tangential really to the places where we would have fiber for government, enterprise, universities, the kind of the core of our fiber solutions business or the places where we would typically be building small cells. But our network can be a backbone component of the build into more residential areas and we've seen some of those opportunities.
Walter Piecyk:
Great. Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. We'll take our next question from Greg Williams with Cowen.
Greg Williams:
Great. Thanks for taking my question. First one just on small cells and the CapEx next year. How many new nodes are you building in 2022 and 2023? You mentioned the 5,000 installs and then the 10,000-plus installed but how many new actual physical nodes versus co-location on existing nodes? Second question is just on your MLA structure in particular is concerned with Verizon. There accelerating their C-band deployment. It looks like their BC category might come in a little sooner. Will you be able to recognize incremental revenues and EBITDAs from that, or it's structured in the MLA where that spend and that sort of higher activity is already baked in? Thanks.
Jay Brown:
On your first question, the nodes that we'll put on air in 2022 and 2023 are a mix of anchor build and colocations. And we'll get into -- as time passes we'll continue to give you the CapEx update in both this calendar year and 2023. But I think for planning purposes you should think about as a mix of activity as what we have done historically. And we've talked about this in prior quarters, but we would expect CapEx to ramp as we're ramping towards higher volume of activity. One other thing and I think you understand this Greg from the way you asked the question. But when we're talking about nodes, we're not making -- we're not distinguishing nodes that are the anchor-build nodes versus the co-located node. We would refer to both those the initial node as well as the co-located node as a small cell node. So those 5,000 would be a mix of both anchor and co-located notes when we talked about 5,000 in 2022 and more than 10,000 in 2023. On your second question around the MLA structure and the activity that we're seeing that's probably a level of detail beyond what we want to go in terms of discussing the way customers are thinking about their builds and activity. Generally I refer to my prior comments around there's a significant amount of committed activity over multi-years that we have from our customers and we believe there will be activity beyond those committed levels that we'll see from the carriers as they build out their 5G networks. Operator let's take maybe one more question.
Operator:
Thank you. We'll take our final question from David Guarino with Green Street.
David Guarino:
Thanks. So Crown Castle was mentioned in the news last month about expressing interest in a tower portfolio in India. And I know you probably don't want to comment on market rumors, which is fine. But could you maybe talk about -- does your team underwrite international acquisitions internally? And then, also, if you could just share your openness to international expansion if that's changed at all in the past few quarters?
Jay Brown:
Thanks for the questions, David. I think I'd refer you to the comments that I made at the opening of the call. We're focused solely on the United States and the opportunities that we see in the US. We believe it has the most attractive growth profile in the world, as well as the lowest risk. And for the reasons that we laid out at the beginning of the call, we think the vast majority, if not all of our investment, will be allocated here in the US. The growth prospects as 5G years are being deployed are incredibly attractive and believe the returns from that investment of capital are just going to be terrific for shareholders. So we think it's the best place in the world to be putting capital and investment and believe that the dynamics of the US market, because of that virtuous cycle that I was referring to. Consumers are willing to pay for it and the operators are continuing to invest the capital in greater ways and they have a lot of spectrum to continue to do that. So I think we're looking at multiyear growth in the US with lots of opportunities. So we're focusing the capital, whether it be for builds or acquisitions, we're focused solely in the US market.
Jay Brown:
So thanks for the questions and thanks for everyone joining us. Did you have a follow-up? Thanks everyone for joining this call this morning. And just want to say thank you to our team, who have done a terrific job as we launched off into 2022 here. Well done in the first quarter and look forward to catching up with all of you in the balance of the year. Talk soon.
Operator:
Thank you. And that does conclude today's conference. We do thank you all for your participation and you may now disconnect.
Operator:
Good day, and welcome to the Crown Castle Q4 2021 Earnings Call. Today's conference is being recorded. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Senior Vice President of Corporate Finance, Ben Lowe. Please go ahead, sir.
Benjamin Lowe:
Great. Thank you, Paula, and good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us today as we discuss our fourth quarter 2021 results. With me on the call this morning are Jay Brown, Crown Castle's Chief Executive Officer; and Dan Schlanger, Crown Castle's Chief Financial Officer. To aid the discussion, we have posted supplemental materials in the Investors section of our website at crowncastle.com that will be referenced throughout the call this morning. This conference call will contain forward-looking statements, which are subject to certain risks, uncertainties and assumptions and the actual results may vary materially from those expected. Information about potential factors which could affect our results is available in the press release and the Risk Factors sections of the company's SEC filings. Our statements are made as of today, January 27, 2022, and we assume no obligation to update any forward-looking statements. In addition, today's call includes discussions of certain non-GAAP financial measures. Tables reconciling these non-GAAP financial measures are available in the supplemental information package in the Investors section of the company's website at crowncastle.com. So with that, let me turn the call over to Jay.
Jay Brown:
Thanks, Dan, and thank you, everyone, for joining us on the call this morning. As you saw from our results last night, 2021 was a tremendous year for Crown Castle. We delivered 14% AFFO per share growth. We grew our dividend by 11%. We benefited from the highest level of tower application volume in our history, resulting in a 35% increase in core tower leasing activity and a 6% -- and 6% organic growth, leading the industry by a wide margin. We saw an inflection in the demand for small cells, securing commitments for more than 50,000 new small cells during the last 12 months, which is equal to 70% of the total small cells booked in our history prior to 2021. We entered into a new 12-year agreement with T-Mobile that provides committed long-term tower revenue growth, and we made significant progress towards our goal to achieve carbon neutrality for Scope 1 and 2 emissions by 2025 as we successfully sourced 60% of the total electricity we expect to consume this year from renewable sources. These results reflect the positive fundamentals underpinning our U.S.-centric business, as our customers are busy upping and deploying their nationwide 5G network, resulting in robust activity across our towers and small cells from new installations and amendments. As we start 2022, we expect elevated levels of tower leasing to continue this year and anticipate leading the industry once again with the highest U.S. tower revenue growth, supporting our announced 11% dividend increase, which is well above our 7% to 8% target. Our customers are also committing to the next phase of their 5G build-out that will require the deployment of small cells at scale to increase the capacity and density of their networks as more spectrum deployed across existing macro towers is not sufficient to keep up with the growth in mobile data demand. With that in mind, I believe 2022 will be an important transition year for our small cells and fiber business as we prepare to accelerate our deployment of small cells from the approximately 5,000 nodes this year, to what we expect will be more than 10,000 beginning in 2023. Dan will cover the financial results for 2021 and our updated expectations for '22 in a bit more detail. So I'm going to focus my comments on our strategy to create significant shareholder value by providing profitable solutions to connect communities and people to each other. We are focused on delivering the highest risk-adjusted returns for our shareholders by investing in shared infrastructure assets that lower implementation and operating costs for our customers, while generating solid returns for our shareholders. As a result, we continue to solely invest in the U.S. market because we believe it represents the best market for wireless infrastructure ownership with the most attractive growth profile and the lowest risk. Over the last 25 years, the performance of our tower assets has proven the value of this strategy. We began investing at approximately 3% yield. And today, those assets now yield more than 11%. We are building value from this strategy again with our small cell and fiber business. Since the beginning of our small cells and fiber strategy, investors have had 2 primary questions. would small cells be required at scale and would customers co-locate on the same assets to drive attractive returns? Today, I believe these questions have been answered. At a time when our customers have been upgrading a record number of our tower sites for 5G, we secured commitments for more than 50,000 new small cell nodes. This is in addition to the 55,000 small cell nodes we have on air today. Importantly, a significant portion of the 50,000 new nodes will be co-located on existing fiber assets at attractive returns. So clearly, we have very positive answers to these key questions. Small cells are required at scale and will be co-located on existing assets. As these small cells are deployed, they will contribute to network performance, which history has taught us, will attract additional small cells as carriers compete on network quality. This dynamic is similar to our tower experience, where a significant driver of the value created has been from carriers deploying more spectrum on existing towers to keep pace with mobile data demand growth. As a result, I believe this is just the starting point for total small cells needed by wireless networks. This view is further supported by recent work completed for us by third-party experts that predict a long-term environment where small cells accelerate. As the clear leader in small cells, we are uniquely positioned to benefit from this growth. The advancement of our small cell strategy continues to remind me of our journey as the U.S. tower industry developed, ultimately creating significant value for shareholders. Although it's easy to forget, there was significant investor skepticism during the early years when we were proving out the tower business. During that time, we faced questions about the long-term return potential of the business. The negative free cash flow profile and when or if ever, it would inflect and whether we would ever see customers co-locate on the same assets since each carrier had different spectrum portfolios and unique network requirements. Those questions were eventually all answered for U.S. towers. But oftentimes, the turning points in the business that address those questions only became widely accepted after the fact. I see a similar pattern with our small cell business. I'm convinced that this period is one of the most important proof points for the small cell business model. We have more than $15 billion invested in more than 80,000 route miles of high-capacity fiber connecting 55,000 small cells that are on air and concentrated in the top U.S. market. The weighted average life of this capital is less than 5 years and already yields nearly 8%. Following the recent commitments for small cells, we have more than 60,000 contracted small cell nodes in our backlog, including a record number of colocation nodes that we expect will increase the overall yield on our invested capital. This sets us on a course to accelerate growth in our small cell business beginning in 2023 as we expect to deploy more than 10,000 small cell nodes next year, with the potential to scale from there. We also continue to see opportunities to add to the returns we are generating from small cells by leveraging the same shared fiber assets to pursue profitable fiber solutions growth. We remain disciplined as we allocate capital to these opportunities with decisions driven by return targets, consistent with how we've executed our fiber strategy from the start, by focusing on small cells as the key driver of long-term value creation. So to wrap up, we had a terrific 2021. We expect to once again lead the industry with the highest U.S. tower revenue growth in 2022. And we see the recent large-scale small cell commitments as the beginning of a thematic move in the deployment of future wireless networks, for which we are well positioned as the clear leader. I believe our strategy, capabilities and unmatched portfolio of more than 40,000 towers and more than 80,000 route miles of fiber concentrated in the top U.S. market, put Crown Castle in the best position to capitalize on the current environment and to grow our cash flows and our dividends per share, both in the near term and for years to come. Because of our position, Crown Castle provides an excellent opportunity for shareholders to invest in the development of 5G in the U.S., which we believe is the best market for communications infrastructure ownership, with this attractive growth and low-risk profile. Importantly, we provide this access to such attractive industry dynamics while delivering a compelling total return opportunity, comprised of a high-quality dividend that's currently yielding over 3%, with expected growth in that dividend of 7% to 8% annually. And with that, I'll turn the call over to Dan.
Daniel Schlanger:
Thanks, Jay, and good morning, everyone. As Jay discussed, 2021 was a great year for Crown Castle, and we expect the momentum to continue in 2022 as 5G deployments continue at scale. With our comprehensive offering of towers, small cells and fiber solutions, we're able to support our customers' expanding infrastructure needs as network architecture evolves. Turning to Slide 4 of the presentation. Full year 2021 results exceeded our prior expectations, with site rental revenues increasing 8%, adjusted EBITDA increasing 12% and AFFO per share increasing 14% when compared to full year 2020 results, excluding nontypical items. Some of the outperformance in 2021 was due to approximately $10 million of additional site rental revenues, $10 million of additional expense reductions and lower-than-expected sustaining capital expenditures, the majority of which we do not believe will recur in 2022. The 8% year-over-year growth in site rental revenues included approximately 6% growth in organic contribution to site rental revenues, consisting of approximately 6% growth from towers, 10% growth from small cells and 3.5% growth from fiber solutions. Turning to Page 5. We have increased our full year 2022 outlook to reflect the additional $250 million of straight-line revenues associated with the long-term agreement with T-Mobile that we announced earlier this month. Other than these additional straight-line revenues, our 2022 outlook is unchanged. These additional straight-line revenues reflect the significant additional contracted tower revenue growth that comes with the new agreement, but they do not contribute to 2022 AFFO. In addition to the contracted tower revenue growth, the agreement with T-Mobile includes a contractual commitment for 35,000 new small cell nodes over the next 5 years. The agreement with T-Mobile also results in several events related to the decommissioning of the Sprint network, including tower nonrenewals that are expected to reduce site rental revenues by approximately $200 million in 2025, small cell nonrenewals that we expect to reduce site rental revenues by approximately $45 million, with the majority occurring in 2023 and approximately $10 million of additional fiber solutions nonrenewals in 2022. Importantly, except for these discrete events, we expect consolidated annual tower and small cell nonrenewals to remain within our historical range of 1% to 2%. Turning to Page 6. We now expect growth in the organic contribution to site rental revenues in 2022 of $235 million to $275 million. The reduction in the expected growth in organic contribution to site rental revenues, compared to our prior 2022 outlook announced in October, reflects the impact from the $10 million of nonrecurring revenue that contributed to fourth quarter 2021 results, while our 2022 outlook remains unchanged. We expect we will generate 4.5% consolidated growth in 2022, consisting of approximately 5.5% from towers, which we believe will be the highest U.S. tower growth rate in the industry again this year, 4.5% from small cells and 3% from Fiber Solutions. As many of you may be aware, in our third quarter 2021 earnings release, we broke down our organic growth to show total new leasing, growth in prepaid rent amortization and a new concept we call core new leasing, which excludes the impact of prepaid rent amortization. Based on feedback we've received since adding core leasing activity to our disclosures, starting with our first quarter earnings release, we will speak to organic growth, exclusive of the impact of prepaid rent amortization or what we'll call core organic growth. This presentation provides information investors can use to analyze our performance that we believe and we've been told is more consistent with other companies in our industry. As I have mentioned, and you can see on Page 7, the majority of the outperformance in our 2021 AFFO is not expected to recur in 2022 and, therefore, impacts year-over-year growth despite no changes to our 2022 AFFO expectations. Turning now to our balance sheet. We finished the year with approximately 5x debt to EBITDA on a last quarter annualized basis, in line with our leverage target. During 2021, we improved our balance sheet by extending the weighted average maturity to 9 years and reducing the average borrowing cost to approximately 3.1%. Part of why we've extended our debt maturities and emphasized fixed as opposed to floating rate debt was to protect our ability to grow our dividends even during periods of increasing interest rates, and we believe we have done exactly that, which is another example of our focus on driving the highest risk-adjusted return to our shareholders. Looking forward, we expect our discretionary capital expenditures to begin to trend higher as we accelerate the pace of small cell deployments. With a record level of colocation nodes in our backlog, which require less capital relative to anchor builds, we expect to be able to fund this higher level of investment with free cash flow and incremental debt capacity while maintaining our investment grade credit profile. So to wrap up, 2021 was a great year for us with record tower activity driving significant financial outperformance. After leading the industry in 2021, we expect to again generate the highest U.S. tower growth in the industry in 2022 with core tower leasing activity approximately 50% higher than our trailing 5-year average. Over the past 12 months, we have booked over 50,000 small cell nodes, equal to almost 70% of the nodes we had booked in our history prior to 2021. We see this as an inflection in the demand for small cells and expect to accelerate growth in our fiber segment in 2022 and beyond. Longer term, we believe we are in -- we are strategically positioned to benefit from all phases of the 5G build-out with our comprehensive infrastructure offering that provides us the best opportunity to consistently deliver dividend growth as wireless network architecture evolves and our customers' priorities shift over time. And with that, Paula, I'd like to open the call to questions.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions]. Our first question will come from Michael Rollins with Citi.
Michael Rollins:
A couple of questions, if I could. First, on the tower side. I'm curious, given the comments you made about leasing activity, if you could frame the backlog on the tower side that Crown is carrying into 2022, and maybe give us a sense as you look at what the carriers are doing, how much of their footprints are covered by the bookings and the billings that you've recognized to date? And what might be on the come? And then just separately on small cells, if I could just ask one other question. Given the comments about the ramping small cell demand that you've highlighted over the last few months, does it make you want to take a more expansive strategy to add fiber outside of maybe that top 25, 30 markets that you've been historically focused on and be prepared for a more expansive small cell deployment cycle from your customers?
Jay Brown:
You bet. On your first question around the backlog in towers, obviously, as we spoke to, we had the highest level of activity in the company's history during 2021, and we're expecting that level of activity to continue into '22. And if you frame it in terms of historical context, what's really unique about this cycle is that we've got 4 carriers deploying -- you've got AT&T, Verizon, T-Mobile and DISH, all deploying network. They've got significant amount of spectrum to be deployed, and they have the capital to be able to deploy that. I can't think of another time in history of our business where we've had 4 well-capitalized carriers with spectrum and the desire to deploy network. So we're certainly riding the wave of that. In terms of what they're touching similar to past upgrade cycles, the focus for the 3 legacy carriers is to touch the sites where they are already existing on the assets, on the macro assets. And we would expect the next phase of 5G build-out will be to densify their network. And we expect that some portion of that densification is going to happen through new installations on towers that they're not located on. But a big part of that, we see that happening in terms of small cells and the 50,000 nodes that we booked over the last 12 months. The commitments from them, I think really just speak to that is that second phase of network deployment as they start to try to densify the network and the need there is going to be both macro sites as well as significantly needing a lot of small cells in order to do it. So in terms of the footprint being touched, they're going to touch virtually all of their existing sites as they upgrade through 5G. And that will take a few years to happen. So feel good about the activity that we're going to see again in '22. And then as we get to periods beyond that, we'll update you as we get later into the year and give our guidance in October later this year. On your second question around the activity for fiber, we're -- we've been focused on building and owning high-capacity fiber in dense urban areas in the top U.S. market. And our strategy has been based on our view that as data demand grows, it will grow most significantly in the densely populated areas of the U.S. And those are the areas where macro sites, in particular, won't be able to handle all of the network capacity that's going to be created. So I think as a general rule, you're going to continue to see our investments focused in those top markets. There are going to be some markets outside of the top 25, top 30 markets where we will go and build nodes for our carrier customer, but we wouldn't do that on a speculative basis. So to the extent that one of our customers has a market, we assess that market as having good, attractive economics at an entry point similar to what we've talked about our return thresholds have been and we see lease-up from other carriers who are going to need those same areas, then we would be open to expanding that. But I think you're going to see the concentration of the capital as well as, frankly, the activity from the carriers to be really focused on those top U.S. markets.
Operator:
Moving on, we'll go to Simon Flannery with Morgan Stanley.
Simon Flannery:
I want to talk about M&A, if I could, for a little while. You've been fairly quiet in terms of your activity over the last couple of years here. I know you've talked in the past about interest in developed markets. There's a lot of activity in Europe. So perhaps you could just update us on that. And then the other would be on ground leases. It looked like it was a fairly quiet year in terms of extending and purchasing ground leases. So any color there on perhaps being able to continue to own more and push the maturities at?
Jay Brown:
Simon, on your first question around M&A and how we think about this, core to the business around towers and small cells is certainly our focus and really don't see anything outside of our core business of towers and small cells that would be of any interest to us. Around what markets to be in, I mentioned this a couple of times in my comments, we look at the U.S. market as the most attractive market in the world for investment in the kind of infrastructure that we want to own. We think the growth profile is most attractive here. And we also think the risk is the lowest. And so as we've assessed both developing markets as well as developed countries, we just -- we don't see those 2 characteristics exist in the markets. And so we've stayed solely focused on the U.S. We continue to watch what's developing in the world and to see if maybe our calculus in our view would change over time with some characteristics. But based on the work that we've seen today, we just don't -- we don't -- we haven't seen anything that's attractive to us -- and frankly, we're really excited about the opportunity to put capital work and continue to invest in the U.S. market because it does have that low-risk and high growth -- and we see that growth continuing unabated for a long period of time. So really excited about the opportunity in the U.S. I think we have plenty of places to put capital to work here in the U.S. On the second question around ground leases. Now this has been an initiative we've been out for about 15 years. Our average ground leases are well over 30 years remaining on them on average. And so as we look at the ground underneath our assets, we're focused on both extending the leases to the extent that they start to get inside of the kind of a 10- to 20-year period of time. And then where it makes sense to bring those leases on balance sheet in the form of an acquisition, we're certainly open to doing that. And at different points in time, as the markets move around, we get opportunities that arise. And we'll continue to do that. But given the maturity of the portfolio, there's not really any pressure on us to feel like we need to put capital to work to buy ground leases. So we'll do it. It's opportunistic when the financial returns make sense.
Daniel Schlanger:
Yes. And just to add to the maturity of the portfolio point there, Simon. Over 80% of our leases are either owned or greater than 20 years and the average life of the leases that are not owned are over 35 years. So as Jay mentioned, there's just no pressure for us to do anything unless the financial returns make sense at this point.
Operator:
And next, we'll go to David Barden with Bank of America.
David Barden:
I guess just two. The first would be, just over the last couple of days, we've heard new news to a degree from Verizon pulling forward, accelerating their C-band build with extra capital, getting in the hands of [indiscernible]. And then T at the same time kind of pushing back their build-out with respect to waiting for 110 to do a 1 tower climb. I just wanted to kind of see how that lined up with what you were expecting for the year and how you set your guidance, et cetera? And then I guess the second question for the T-Mobile deal, in terms of the nonrenewals, how do those nonrenewals manifest themselves? Does -- is it a hot cut on January 1? Does it happen ratably over the course of the year? And specifically with respect to the $10 million we're losing in fiber in '22?
Jay Brown:
On your first question, I would just -- without being really specific about individual carriers, I think the activity, as I spoke to a minute ago, that we saw in '21 and expect to carry into '22, we haven't seen anything that would cause us to look at our guidance and have to shift our expected growth in revenues. The -- we have pretty good visibility, as you know -- pretty good visibility into what their deployment plans are. And so to the extent that to adjust those plans, we're probably 6 to 9 months away from seeing any impact in what we do. So it starts to -- if there is a movement upward, it would push it pretty late into this year and wouldn't have a real meaningful result impact on our results in calendar year '22. It probably more portends what's going to impact as we start to think about site rental revenue growth going into 2023. So we'll continue to watch it and be responsive as they work on their 5G network.
Daniel Schlanger:
Yes. And David, to speak to the nonrenewal point, as we talked about when we announced the agreement, on the tower side, we think it's going to be a $200 million impact to 2025, which you can assume happens the first of the year and its $200 million through the course of the year. So it's all of that. On the small cell side, it's a similar portion. It's about $45 million, the majority of which is in 2023. Again, you can just assume that happens at the beginning of the year and impacts the entire year. And the $10 million is a fiber solutions churn in 2022 is an impact of, again, $10 million to the total revenue in 2022. So I think you can -- for modeling purposes and how you think about it, just assume that happens on January 1. And it just -- it impacts revenues negatively by $10 million.
Operator:
Next, we'll go to Nick Del Deo with MoffettNathanson.
Nick Del Deo:
First one for Dan. It looks like your cash tower cost of service is up about 9% year-over-year in the quarter. It was up about 7% last quarter. In the past, it's been pretty muted. And looking at unallocated G&A in the quarter, it was kind of higher than it's been before, too. So maybe talk a little bit about what's behind that cost growth and how we should think about the trajectory from here? And then I have a follow-up.
Daniel Schlanger:
Yes. If you look year-over-year, it's relatively stable. So it's just when costs come in and what happens on a quarter-to-quarter basis. I would think that when you think about the cost structure, especially in our tower business, it's pretty stable over a long period of time. So I would just ask that when you look into it, Nick, look at the year-over-year growth as opposed to any quarter-over-quarter moves, and that probably is more indicative of what's going to happen through the course of long periods of time, including in our 2022 guidance.
Nick Del Deo:
Okay. Okay. So nothing unusual going on there to call out. I guess the second one on small cells. You kind of thinking about the T-Mobile and Verizon deals, do they presumably structure those deals to cover their anticipated needs for the foreseeable future? Kind of thinking about the cadence of signings going forward from customers with long-term deals like those, is it appropriate to think that it might be several years before they come back to do more with you and kind of a feast or famine outlook? Or are there reasons to think that they might come back to the well more -- on a more regular basis before those deals conclude?
Jay Brown:
Yes, Nick. I would say framing that, I would think about 2 things. The first thing I would think about is the 50,000 node commitment that we received is a hard contractual commitment. So there's a balance whenever the carrier -- we're working with the carriers around contracted future leasing activity, whether it's on towers, for amendments or new installations or in the case of small cells, we're not going to get 100% of what they think they're going to build contracted and committed that early. So I wouldn't -- we don't view this and don't think this is 100% of everything they're going to need or contract for because they're just not going to make that level of commitment. The second thing that I think is -- when I think about your question is the amount of and scale of the commitment relative to historical activity is really, frankly, astonishing. We've said this a couple of different times, but we've been at this for 10 years. We've got 50,000 nodes on air. And in the last 12 months, we've gotten 50,000 node commitment. So it feels to us like this is a very significant turning point. And I think that turning point and the commitment from the carriers while we think about it in terms of -- in my comments, I talked about the return elements, the revenue growth elements and why it's important there. But the other aspect of this is how difficult these are to build, I think, is very well understood by our carrier customers. And so there's an element to this of the carriers know they're going to need the site. And unlike towers where we can get them on air in 6 months, there has to be significant planning that goes into this. And they recognized the difficulty of it, which I think is really the value proposition that we bring to the table of and ability to deliver these nodes and implement. And so it's really a statement of confidence also in our operating ability in addition to the macro elements of what's needed in order to make their networks work. And I think the combination of those 2 things is just really compelling.
Operator:
And moving on, we'll go to Jon Atkin with RBC Capital Markets.
Jonathan Atkin:
So I noticed that the cash yield on invested capital showed a nice sequential increase during 4Q for fiber. And can you speak a little bit as to what drove that?
Daniel Schlanger:
Yes, John. A couple of things drove it. One is just performance in the business as we continue to add more revenue to existing fiber, either through -- both through fiber solutions and colocating small cells on the assets we already own. So I think part of that is just the continuation of proof that this business does generate incremental returns that add to the overall yields. But I think there was a little bit of it that the -- when we called out some expense reductions in the fourth quarter that we didn't expect. Those hit on the fiber side and therefore, increased the gross margin and ultimately, the yield because we -- that calculation is in last quarter annualized. So we got the benefit of that kind of onetime $10 million reduction in expenses. So some of it is from that too, but the majority of the increase in the yield is because the business is just performing well and we're increasing the revenue and returns on the assets that we already own.
Jonathan Atkin:
So on the tower side, it was in the kind of the low 11% range. And do you expect fiber to -- what pace does fiber kind of converge towards that 11%? How do we think about that?
Daniel Schlanger:
Yes. So first of all, on the tower side, there is substantial growth there, and that's all just in the performance of the towers. We are continuing because this business is a great business to add revenue on existing towers, which increases the yield, which we would anticipate to happen in 2022 as well. The timing of when we're going to get the fiber business to an 11% yield, we've always had a hard time answering that question specifically because it really matters not only the amount of small cells we get, but how many are co-located. As Jay pointed out, though, we're going to make significant progress towards that, given the 50,000 that we just booked. Because not only do we get a lot, a significant portion of them are going to be co-located on the existing assets, which will drive that yield up. And what's so important to understand about that is at the same type of maturity time frame of towers, we were much below the 8% that we're on at the fiber business right now. So we think that the proving out of the small cell business is happening faster than what happened with towers and that we will get to those 11%. And as we've talked about, as we get to 3 tenants for an overall small cell deployment, we'll get into the -- that drives the returns up to the mid- to high teens. So we feel like there's a lot of upside that is going to be realized in our fiber business, and those yields will creep up and approach in where we are with towers and towers will continue to increase also. So hopefully, you'll continue to ask the question of when are you going to get to the 12% on towers or the 13% on towers. And we'll keep saying we're going to chase it with small cell.
Jonathan Atkin:
On the 50,000 small cells, you talked a lot of that co-location. Any kind of rough numbers you can share on the capital intensity of that? And then more broadly for the business, given all the MLAs you now have in place, how do we think about the 2022 growth outlook? And how much of that is now contractually locked in under MLA terms?
Daniel Schlanger:
The capital intensity on the colocation is substantially lower than capital intensity on anchor builds. And as we start getting clarity around what the timing is of building those nodes, both anchor builds and co-locations within the 50,000, we'll continue to update you on the capital. But right now, what we believe is that the capital in 2022 will remain relatively consistent with what we saw in 2021. But it's clear that, over time, we would anticipate that to go up because we're going to increase the number of nodes being put on air from what we expect this year to be 5,000 to what we expect next year to be over 10,000. So we expect an increase in capital but not commensurate with the increased number of nodes because the capital intensity is coming down. On the long-term MLAs and the percentage under those, we think of our MLAs as the way we structure the growth. So whether we put it in an MLA or take it a la carte, that growth is going to occur because our assets are so important to the functioning of the network. And we've signed a lot of MLAs, but we always think about what is the best present value we can get within them. And whether we go a la carte or more holistic pricing is really dictated by the NPV we get plus the benefits that both we and our customers get from having holistic pricing, just making it easier to operationalize. But we also always leave room for upside through that. So we're not pricing all of our tower capacity and saying that's what we get paid within our MLAs. We're pricing it with respect to how much activity we think is going to happen. So we believe that the contracts provide all of that, both the underlying contractual obligations plus the upside and the operational ease that comes with having more pre-described pricing, which is really all it is because -- like I said, however, we want to monetize the growth, we think there's going to be growth and we are monetizing it.
Jay Brown:
And Jon, one of the things maybe just to think about that, that I would add to Dan's comments around the MLAs is the more nearer period that you think about, the more certainty we have of that revenue stream. And as we get towards outer years, the more optionality we have towards the upside. And we would think about it that way. And obviously, our counter-parties think about it that way as well because the nearer the term, the more certainty they have as to what exactly what they're going to need. And as we get into outer periods, then we end up with more optionality towards future growth. So this is just the nature of the way those contracts end up coming together usually.
Operator:
And next, we'll go to Rick Prentiss with Raymond James.
Richard Prentiss:
A couple of questions, if I could. One, definitely appreciate the focus on core, we call it cash leasing. Also like you guys reporting by segment, the core leasing activity. Hopefully, we get that by quarters as we go forward. A couple of questions on the Sprint T-Mobile items that you discussed earlier this year and touched on this call. Are we right that -- I think you said maybe 5,000 nodes would get decommissioned by -- small cell nodes get decommissioned by T-Mobile in the '23 time frame. Should we assume that the 10,000 is a gross add of nodes, not a net add of nodes?
Daniel Schlanger:
Yes. Yes.
Jay Brown:
The net add of nodes.
Daniel Schlanger:
No. No, the 10,000 of gross out of nodes. The 5,000 will be decommissioned in 2023. So yes, the 10,000 is the gross or more than 10,000, and then the 5,000 will be decommissioned.
Richard Prentiss:
Makes sense. Because the gross would obviously lead to new lease activity and the decom will go to churn?
Daniel Schlanger:
Yes.
Jay Brown:
Correct.
Richard Prentiss:
Okay. Second question on the T-Mobile small cell. I think you also mentioned there was a 5-year specific member commitment, but is the 35,000 node commitment spot over the 5 years? Is it spread over a longer period of time and be getting several questions on that one.
Daniel Schlanger:
Yes, the 35,000 node commitment is spread over 5 years.
Richard Prentiss:
Great. And then it looks like you guys simplified the Sprint churn, the $200 million hitting in 2025 and then churn kind of hangs in the 1% to 2% range other years. Should we assume that it goes more towards the 2% range than the 1% range though as we think about it? Just trying to understand -- because I think you previously acknowledged that you had $679 million ballpark of Sprint leases. So just trying to think of how we should think about the $200 million versus that $679 million and over what period of time might they be coming off?
Jay Brown:
Yes, Rick, as we get into those outer periods, obviously, there's probably a little bit of movement as you would expect from year-to-year. So we're trying to give you a range that in each of the years we would be within. So we would expect it to kind of be 1% to 2%. And I don't think, at this point, we're ready to be more precise than that range.
Richard Prentiss:
Okay. Can you give us an idea of how much total Sprint churn you expect to occur if it was 679 was the most exposure and 200 is kind of lump sum? Can you give us an idea of how much Sprint churn you expect to occur over a multiyear period then?
Jay Brown:
Yes. I think when we get out into the outer periods of time and history has been such great place to go back and look at how these networks get deployed and what ends up happening when there's consolidation churn. Today, putting a precise answer on that question, I don't think we have -- we don't have great visibility towards that. We can range-bound it. We know kind of the outer limit of it around the 2%, the lower end of kind of 1%. And as they deploy the network and upgrade it to 5G as T-Mobile goes through that process, there were going to be some sites for sure that they're going to not need. There will probably also be some sites that today they look at and may be on the list of potentially losing that ultimately will have need as data growth occurs. So I think as we get into those outer years, we'll be able to give you a better estimation. But in terms of modeling, when we look at the total business, we think as we look at the contractual committed revenues on our assets today, we're pretty confident we'll be inside that -- in between that 1% and 2% churn in any years other than the specific years we were calling out.
Richard Prentiss:
Makes sense. One other quick housekeeping one. In the supplement, I guess, the settlement has not been updated for the new straight line adjustment for T-Mobile. But should we assume, again, ballpark ZIP code, that the straight-line adjustment that went up by $250 million in the '22 guidance, should that straight-line adjustment kind of dropped by 50 year change by $50 million a year, just kind of theoretically?
Daniel Schlanger:
Yes. I won't speak specifically to the $50 million a year, but you're right that, that $250 million will drop over time. And it will ultimately, obviously reverse towards the back half of the 12-year agreement. So yes, it's going to be somewhere generally in that range.
Richard Prentiss:
That's good. Yes. I expect in 1Q, you'll give us kind of the more detailed schedule as you have time to kind of finish it up?
Daniel Schlanger:
Yes. Yes. Well, it's just -- it didn't happen in the period that we are reporting on in the supplement. So we wanted to put it in the period that it actually occurs. So we'll have that all laid out really well in our supplement after the first quarter earnings.
Operator:
And next, we'll go to Phil Cusick with JPMorgan.
Unidentified Analyst:
This is Amir for Phil. Two, if I may. You guys have talked over the years about a second and third tenant on small cells being accretive to return. How should we think about these co-locations and pricing that first tenant and later driving up the return?
Jay Brown:
Sure. So the pricing environment that we've talked about for years is unchanged. We've seen the economics, whether it's the 2 large deals that we spent a lot of time talking about this morning or as we do one-off markets with the carriers, we've seen that pricing stay in line. In terms of our underwriting, we typically see a 6% to 7% initial yield on invested capital as we add a second tenant to those same assets or on that same network, we get into the double digits return, so above 10% yield. And then as Dan mentioned earlier, by the time we get to the third, then we're into the mid- to high teens in terms of our yields on invested capital as we add that third tenant. We've seen that pricing basically be unchanged for the last 5 or 6 years. And so those are the economics you should expect as we add additional tenants. Typically, when we're underwriting these investments, we will be -- we don't do anything speculatively. So we'll start off with some sort of 6 to 7 -- in the neighborhood of 6% to 7% initial yield on that investment. We're building it for a carrier purpose built. And in order for us to sign up for that, we're going to have a view on future tenancy and what will go there. And the things that we underwrite are going to have at least one additional tenant beyond that anchor tenant. So we're underwriting things with yields that are into the double digits and then over time, getting and achieving that lease up to drive our returns above our -- well above our cost of capital.
Daniel Schlanger:
And one of the things that we've talked about historically and remains to be true is that when we talk about a second tenant, it doesn't have to be a second specific customer that the first tenant coming in and densifying on their own network can be their own second tenant. And we will see the economics that look almost exactly the same, whether it's the same company or a different company as the second tenant. And that's true in these agreements as well as any time that we're seeing the densification on the existing network, that those will drive returns that are very consistent with everything Jay just talked about.
Unidentified Analyst:
That's helpful. And then my second question, in the material, you guys note that the carriers are planning the next phase of the 5G build that requires small cell that scale. Can you expand on what those conversations are looking like?
Daniel Schlanger:
I'm sorry, what was the last part of the question?
Unidentified Analyst:
Can you expand on what those conversations are looking, like talking to the carriers about like the next stage of the 5G build that requires the small cell?
Daniel Schlanger:
Yes, Amir, I'll only speak to it at a really high level, and then I would let you inquire of each of the carriers as to how they're thinking about it. The conversations that we have brought to fruition the 50,000 nodes that they committed to. And so we have an understanding of how they're thinking about their markets, where they're wanting to densify, how they're thinking about putting it in places where we have existing fiber or not. So we have a good view of that. But specifically how they're thinking about spectrum management and densification, that's really a question that I think they should speak to.
Operator:
Moving on, we'll go to Colby Synesael with Cowen.
Unidentified Analyst:
It's Greg Williams sitting in for Colby. I have 2 questions, if I may. One, I just wanted to revisit the idea of AT&T's messaging yesterday about 1-tower climb. I don't want to talk about that customer specifically, but what is the 1-tower climb or a 1-touch program mean in terms of impacts on your leasing expectations? Specifically, if the radios aren't ready for late spring, early summer, if it's one piece of equipment or 2 pieces of equipment, how does that impact your lease-ups and the way your contracts are constructed? Do you price on space equipment? I know some of your peers comprise on a frequency-specific level. The second question is just on the services business. How are we going to see services volume on the tower side compared to 2022 versus 2021? And what are the gross margins looking like for 2022 on service margins?
Jay Brown:
Thanks, Greg, for the questions. On the first question, I think it's a thoughtful approach to try to limit the number of truck rolls that you have in the network. And so obviously, AT&T is being thoughtful about how they're thinking about truck rolls and a number of times to touch a site because it just increases the cost of that activity. It doesn't matter that much to us in terms of our ultimate financial results on site rental revenue, whether it's 1 or 2 touches in order to get to the steady state or the final state of the network. We're obviously happy to work with our customers as they do things like try to eliminate the number of truck rolls that they have in order to help them accomplish those lower cost deployments. In terms of the pricing in the second part of your question related to that, we price based on space used up on the top of the tower, space used at the base of the tower, the ground space that the equipment takes up as well as our agreements are oftentimes spectrum-specific as to what they're deploying or using on those sites. So all 3 of those elements can impact the ultimate price on the site. On the services question, we expect services, as we talked about in terms of tower activity, to be similar in '22 as it is in '21. We have a similar expectation around the services business in '22, relatively similar to what we saw in 2021. The timing in the quarters may change a little bit. But as you think about it in the totality of the year, our outlook assumes that services is about the same in '22 as it was in '21.
Daniel Schlanger:
Operator, may we have time for two more questions?
Operator:
And next, we'll go to Sami Badri with Credit Suisse.
Ahmed Badri:
There were some references made earlier about the difficulty of the small cell business, and this is kind of the rationale for the competitive advantage that you guys have built over many, many years and even trenched yourselves and have been able to watch where the puck is going. And another dynamic that really kind of entered in 2021 was the increases of costs and decreases of labor firepower for a lot of organizations involved in the telecommunications industry. Is this environment conducive of a dynamic where telcos will begin outsourcing more of their telecom infrastructure builds over time rather than in-sourcing?
Jay Brown:
Yes. Thanks for the question. We believe that to be the case. Certainly, the economic proposition that we have to the wireless operators on the tower side has proven out over 25 years that the shared infrastructure model reduces the cost of the network for the operators, and it has played out over a long period of time very successfully. That exact same dynamic is at play with small cells, where we're willing to put up the capital and then deploy the capital initially and then share it across multiple operators such that each operator has a much lower cost of operating than what they would have if they own their own and each of them built their own network. So we absolutely see those dynamics at play. And what you're highlighting around an environment where labor costs increase, inflationary pressures may drive up interest rates, I think it just underpins our value proposition to our carriers that we're happy to provide the capital at a much lower cost than what the markets can provide them capital because of the opportunity that we have to see returns from multiple operators across that same asset. So that's the business model and feel like we're really well positioned for that. And in a period of time where we're trying -- where everyone is trying to figure out ways to reduce overall costs, we're a very good alternative as they think about network deployment.
Ahmed Badri:
Got it. And then one comment or question actually on just some of the FAA and airline type things that we've been seeing. Has there been any change in payments or negotiations or on an account contract that you have with your major customers regarding some of the noise that non-telco constituents are making?
Jay Brown:
There has not been any change in the behavior with our customers. And we don't expect there to be any impact to our 2022 outlook. Operator, maybe we have time for one more.
Operator:
And that final question will come from David Guarino with Green Street.
David Guarino:
Two questions I'll ask them up front for you. The first one is on valuations for fiber assets have moved significantly higher over the past year. Do you think it might make sense to recycle a portion of your fiber assets that maybe aren't as well suited for small cell co-location? And then the second question is on data centers. You guys have made some small investments in data centers, but what are your thoughts on a larger scale data center acquisition? And do you see enough evidence today that data centers and towers under the same roof makes strategic sense?
Jay Brown:
You bet. On your first question around valuations for fiber, I think the world is starting to see the real value of fiber and the necessity of it for small cells. And a desire for folks to try to figure out a way to invest in that space has certainly driven up the valuations. We've talked for years around our strategic focus and what the interest in fiber is for us. We wanted to be in the top U.S. markets and we wanted to acquire fiber that was dense in those markets and had a lot of capacity. And as we said, I think it was coming on now about 4 years ago, we really didn't see any more meaningful acquisitions in the U.S. or opportunities to acquire fiber that kind of met those criteria of dense urban markets, high-capacity fiber. And so the majority of what we have been investing in since then has been building fiber in markets for carriers to deploy small cells. So when I look at our capital base and the assets, there's not a portion of those assets that are extraneous to the strategy of any meaningful amount. The assets that we acquired and bill were really in the locations that we chose, and we didn't buy large nationwide portfolios of assets that we look at and say, okay, these are underperforming or unlikely to perform long term. So like the asset base that we have, I think we're going to be able to drive really nice returns across them over a long period of time. And I think the actions of the last 12 months really speak to the opportunity that lies ahead. So feel good about where the assets are. On your second question around data centers, large-scale data centers, we don't see that as core to our strategy. I don't see a need to own data centers. I don't see how it relates, frankly, to the edge data centers that will ultimately be needed as wireless networks ultimately expand. So I don't see owning or operating large data centers as a part of our business model, and it's frankly not something we're interested in doing. We're focused on investing our capital in the towers and small cells. We think that's the highest growth opportunity in the U.S. and see a lot of opportunities to deploy capital there as well as drive great returns for our shareholders. And so we're going to stay focused there. And if ultimately, we get to our upside case for small cells. And certainly, I think the edge data centers will come around, and we're well positioned given our fiber footprint the benefit from those edge data centers if we get into the upside case outcomes for small cells. We'll certainly take advantage of where our hub sites are and our assets are located to capture that edge data demand, but don't see large-scale data centers playing out in our strategy. So appreciate the question. Did you have a follow-up?
David Guarino:
Yes, just to clarify. When I said large scale, I was referring more to a larger platform, not necessarily a hyperscale data center, but it sounds like based on your response, that same would hold true. The timing is not there yet from your view. But in the future, you could be more open-minded to a smaller edge data center strategy? Is that correctly agreeing on what you said?
Jay Brown:
Well, I think I'm trying to separate the difference between the large box data centers and the edge data centers, we see potential on the horizon for edge data centers to come to fruition in the wireless networks. In the use cases, in order to get to a place where edge data centers are a meaningful opportunity for us, we're talking about cases that are upside cases. As we think about small cells, we'd have to get to that kind of level of data demand in the U.S. So if we get to kind of the upside cases on small cells and fiber and edge data centers are an opportunity, we feel like we're really well positioned with the assets that we have to capture that, and we would absolutely be willing to build out sites. We've made some investments in Vapor IO. We have a good position there. It's an edge data center company. They've done well. We've built a number of their assets on our sites. And so we've got a good partnership there, and we're watching the development of that space. But for it to become meaningful in our operating results is a pretty big run from where we are today in terms of total data traffic that would be needed. And so that's where I would see our opportunity. But don't see or frankly, I don't see an opportunity in the big box data centers today or in the future as being really a part of our core strategy.
Daniel Schlanger:
Well, thank you, everyone, for joining this morning. And let me just conclude by thanking our employees for a job well done in 2021. The level of activity is remarkable. The way you delivered for our customers was outstanding. And so thank you for all of your work. I know you're already busy working on 2022, but thank you for what you accomplished in '21, and I look forward to talking to all our investors next quarter. Thanks for joining.
Operator:
And this concludes today's call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Please standby. Good day, everyone and welcome to the Crown Castle, Third Quarter 2021 earnings call. Today's call is being recorded. And now at this time, I would like to turn the call over to Ben Lowe. Please go ahead.
Ben Lowe:
Great. Thank you. April, and good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us today as we discuss our Third Quarter 2021 results. With me on the call this morning are Jay Brown, Crown Castle's Chief Executive Officer; and Dan Schlanger, Crown Castle 's Chief Financial Officer. To aid the discussion we have posted supplemental materials in the investors section of our website at crowncastle.com, that will be referenced throughout the call this morning. This conference call will contain forward-looking statements which are subject to certain risks, uncertainties, and assumptions, and actual results may vary materially from those expected. Information about potential factors which could affect our results is available in the press release and the risk factors sections of the Company's SEC filings. Our statements are made as of today, October 21, 2021, and we assume no obligations to update any forward-looking statements. In addition, today's call includes discussions of certain non-GAAP financial measures. Tables reconciling these non-GAAP financial measures are available in the supplemental information package in the Investor section on the Company's website at crowncastle.com. Before I turn the call over to Jay, I just want to mention that we will take as many questions as possible following our prepared remarks, but we will limit the call to 60 minutes this morning. So with that, let me turn the call over to Jay.
Jay Brown:
Thanks, Ben. Good morning, everyone. Thanks for joining us on the call this morning. As you saw from our results yesterday, we remain on track to generate an anticipated 12% growth in AFFO per share this year. We expect to be at the high end of our long-term growth target in 2022 with 8% AFFO per share growth, being driven in large part by our expectation at Tower core leasing activity will be approximately 50% higher in 2022 than our trailing 5-year average. And we increased our annualized common stock dividend by approximately 11% to $5.88 per share, marking the second consecutive year of dividend growth that meaningfully exceeds our long-term target. Given that our dividend payout ratio has remained largely unchanged since 2014, our dividend remains the best indicator of how we are performing both financially and operationally. Our significant outperformance in 2021 combined with our forecast for 2022 enabled us to raise our dividend 11%, well above our stated goal for the second year in a row. In essence, we've achieved 3 years of targeted dividend growth in just 2 years. Since we established our common stock dividend in 2014, we have grown dividends per share at a compounded annual growth rate of 9% with growth ranging from 7% to 11% in each year. Before adding a little more detail to my summary points from the earnings release, I wanted to comment on the other press release we issued yesterday where we announced our goal to be carbon neutral by 2025. We aim to provide profitable solutions to connect communities and people, and our carbon neutral goal builds on our commitment to deploy our strategy sustainably. Our business model is inherently sustainable as shared solutions limit infrastructure in the communities in which we operate and minimize the use of natural resources. Further to the point, our core value proposition since we began operating more than 25 years ago has centered around our ability to provide our customers with access to mission critical infrastructure at a lower cost because we can share that infrastructure across multiple operators. In addition, our solutions help address societal challenges like the digital divide in underserved communities by advancing access to education and technology. To date, we have invested nearly $10 billion in towers, small cells, and fiber assets located in low-income areas. As a way of quantifying how our business model minimizes the use of natural resources, our business [indiscernible] just 1 ton of CO2 per $1 billion of enterprise value, which is 90 times more efficient than the average Company in the S&P 500 based on industry estimates. Although we are proud of our limited environmental impact, we are focused on making even more strides by reducing our energy consumption and sourcing renewable energy to help us achieve our goal of carbon neutrality by 2025. We are excited about this announcement and look forward to continuing to find ways to help our communities and planet while driving significant returns to our shareholders. Turning back to our 2022 outlook, we are benefiting from record levels of activity in our Tower business with our customers, upgrading thousands of existing cell sites as a part of their first phase of 5G build-out. Adding to the opportunity, we are seeing the highest level of tower co-location activity in our history with Dish building a nationwide 5G network from scratch. I believe our strategy and unmatched portfolio of more than 40,000 towers and approximately 80,000 route miles of fiber concentrated in the top U.S. market have positioned Crown Castle to capitalize both on the current environment and to grow our cash flows and dividends per share in the near-term and for years to come. We are focused on generating this growth while delivering the highest risk-adjusted returns for our shareholders by investing in shared infrastructure assets that lower the implementation and operating costs for our customers while generating solid returns for our shareholders. To execute on this strategy, we are providing our customers with access to our 40,000 towers, and 80,000 route miles of fiber, help them build out their 5G wireless networks. We are investing in new small cell and fiber assets that meet our disciplined and rigorous underwriting standards to expand our long-term addressable market, and we are identifying where wireless networks are going and investing early to position the Company to capitalize on future opportunities as we have done with small cells, EDGE computing, and CBRS. One of the core principles underpinning our strategy is to focus on the U.S. market because we believe it represents the best market in the world for wireless infrastructure ownership since it has the most attractive growth profile and the lowest risk, and we believe this dynamic of higher growth and lower risk will continue into the future, which is why we expect our U.S. based strategy will drive significant returns for shareholders. With that in mind, we have invested nearly $40 billion in towers, small cells, and fiber assets in the top markets that are all foundational for the development of future 5G networks. We believe our unique strategy, portfolio of infrastructure assets, and proactive identification of future opportunities provide a platform for sustained, long-term dividend growth as wireless network architecture evolves and our customers' priorities shift over time. Today, our customers are primarily focusing their investment on macro sites as towers remain the most cost-effective way to deploy spectrum at scale and establish broad network coverage. With our high-quality towers concentrated in the top markets, we are clearly benefiting from this focus with an expected 6% organic growth for our Towers segment in 2021 and an expected 20% increase in Tower core leasing activity next year when compared to these 2021 levels. With history as a guide, we believe the deployment of additional spectrum on existing cell sites will not be enough to keep pace with the persistent 30% plus annual growth in mobile data traffic. As a result, we expect cell site densification to remain a critical tool for carriers to respond to the continued growth in mobile data demand as it enables our customers to get the most out of their spectrum assets by reusing the spectrum over shorter and shorter distances. When the current cell site upgrade phase shifts to densification phase, we believe the comprehensive offering of towers, small cells, and fiber will be critical for our customers and provide us with an opportunity to further extend the runway of growth in our business. While we expect the densification phase of buildout will drive additional leasing on our tower assets for years to come, we believe small cells will play an even greater role as the coverage area of cell sites will continue to shrink due to the density of people, and therefore, the density of wireless data demand. With more than 80,000 small cells on air are committed in our backlog, high-capacity fiber assets in the vast majority of the top 30 markets in the U.S. and industry-leading capabilities, we believe we are well-positioned to deliver value to our customers as their priorities evolve, driving meaningful growth in our small cell business. Bigger picture, when I consider the durability of the underlying demand trends we see in the U.S., how wealth we are positioned to consistently deliver growth through all phases of the 5G build-out with significant potential upside in our comprehensive asset base as wireless networks continue to evolve. Our proven ability to proactively identify where wireless network architecture is heading and to be an early investor in solutions to help future networks. the deliberate decisions we have made to reduce risks associated with our strategy and our history of steady execution. I believe that Crown Castle stands out as a unique investment that will generate compelling returns over time. In the near term, as I mentioned before, we expect to deliver outsized AFFO per share growth of 12% in 2021. We expect to generate 8% growth in AFFO per share in 2022 at the high end of our long-term growth target, and supported by an expected 20% increase in tower core leasing activity. And we increased our common stock dividend by 11% for the second consecutive year. Longer term, we believe Crown Castle provides an exciting opportunity for shareholders to invest in the development of 5G in the U.S., which we believe is the best market for communications infrastructure ownership. Importantly, we provide access to such attractive industry dynamics while providing a compelling total return opportunity comprised of a high-quality dividend that currently yields 3.5% with expected growth in that dividend of 7% to 8% annually. And with that, I'll turn the call over to Dan.
Daniel Schlanger:
Thanks, Jay. Good morning, everyone. As Jay discussed, we delivered another great quarter of results in the Third Quarter. We remain on track to grow AFFO per share by an anticipated 12% this year. We expect to be at the high-end of our growth target in 2022 with 8% AFFO per share growth. And we increased our quarterly common stock dividend by 11% for the second consecutive year, meaningfully above our long-term target growth rate, while maintaining a consistent payout ratio. We are excited about the outsized growth we are experiencing in the early stages of 5G. And we continue to believe our portfolio of towers, small cells, and fiber provide unmatched exposure to what we believe will be a decade long build-out by our customers. Turning to Slide 4 of the presentation, our third quarter results were highlighted by 8% growth in site rental revenues, 11% growth in adjusted EBITDA, and 13% growth in AFFO per share when compared to the same period last year. Record Tower activity levels supported this strong growth, generating organic Tower growth of 6.3% and higher services contribution when compared to the same period in 2020. Looking at our full-year outlook for 2021 and 2022 on slide 5, we are maintaining our 2021 outlook with site rental revenues, adjusted EBITDA, and AFFO growing 7%, 11%, and 14%, respectively. For full-year 2022, we expect continuing investments in 5G to drive another very good year for us, with 5% site rental revenue growth, 6% growth in adjusted EBITDA, and 8% AFFO growth. Turning now to slide 6, the full-year 2022 outlook includes an expected organic contribution to site rental revenues of $245 to $285 million or 5% consisting of approximately 5.5% growth from towers, 5% growth from small cells, and 3% growth from fiber solutions. As you likely saw in our press release, when we refer to new leasing activity, we include the change in amortization of prepaid rent consistent with how we have discussed activity in the past. To address feedback we've received, to provide more detail around our expectations for leasing activity, we have introduced a new concept of core leasing activity, which excludes the impact of changes in prepaid rent amortization. Core leasing activity is more indicative of current period activity, whereas changes in prepaid rent amortization also include activity from prior periods as prepaid rent received in those prior periods eventually amortizes to 0 over the life of the associated contract.
Daniel Schlanger:
Although we have consistently provided disclosure on prepaid rent amortization by segment in our supplemental earnings materials, we hope this new presentation format provides a cleaner way for investors to analyze our performance. With that definition in mind, we expect 2022 core leasing activity of $340 million at the midpoint, or $350 million inclusive of the year-over-year change in prepaid rent amortization. The 2022 expected core leasing activity includes $160 million in towers representing a 20% increase when compared to our 2021 outlook and an approximately 50% increase when compared to our 5-year trailing average, $30 million in small cells compared to $45 million in 2021, and $150 million in fiber solutions, compared to a $165 million expected this year. Turning to Slide 7, you can see we expect approximately 90% of the organic site rental revenue growth to flow through to AFFO growth, highlighting the strong operating leverage in our business. As we discussed in July, we expect to deploy an additional 5,000 small cells in 2022, which is the same number we expect to build in 2021. We expect discretionary Capex to be approximately $1.1 billion to $1.2 billion in 2022, including approximately $300 million for towers and $800 to $900 million for fiber, similar to what we expect in 2021. This translates to $700 to $800 million of net Capex when factoring in the $400 million of prepaid rent contribution we expect to receive in 2022. The full-year 2022 outlook for Capex represents an expected 30% reduction in discretionary Capex for our fiber segment relative to full-year 2022 when we deployed approximately 10,000 small cells. Based on the expected growth in cash flows for full-year 2022 and consistent with our investment-grade credit profile, we expect to fund our discretionary Capex with free cash flow and incremental debt capacity without the need for new equity for the 4th consecutive year. In addition, we believe our business and balance sheet are well positioned to support consistent AFFO growth through various economic cycles, including during periods of higher inflation and interest rates. Our cost structure is largely fixed in nature as you can see, with nearly 90% of the full-year 2022 expected organic cyclone of revenue growth to flow through to AFFO growth as I referenced earlier. And we've taken steps to further strengthen our investment-grade balance sheet that now has more than 90% fixed rate debt, a weighted average maturity of more than 9 years, and a weighted average interest rate of 3.1%. In conclusion, we're excited about the outsized growth we are generating as a result of the initial 5G build up by our customers, which is translating into back-to-back years of 11% growth in our quarterly common stock dividend. This dividend currently equates to an approximate 3.5% yield, which we believe is a compelling valuation given our expectation of growing the dividend 7% to 8% per year, combined with our high-quality, predictable, and stable cash flows. Looking further out, we believe our unique ability to offer towers, small cells, and fiber solutions, which are all integral components of communications networks, provide significant optionality to capitalize on the long-term positive industry trends of network improvements and densification, and gives us the best opportunity to consistently deliver growth as wireless network architecture continues to evolve and our customers priorities shift over time. With that, April, I'd like to open the call to questions.
Operator:
Thank you. [Operator Instructions] We'll pause for a moment. And we'll first hear from Michael Rollins of Citi.
Michael Rollins:
Thanks and good morning.
Jay Brown:
Good morning, Mike
Michael Rollins:
Hi. I was curious if you could unpack the leasing commentary in terms of like the activity levels relative to what's coming through the income statement and revenue in '22, and included in that would be -- are you seeing an elevated backlog if some of the leasing from companies like Dish just have a longer lead time, and then the other part of it I noticed was it seemed like other customer revenues bounced up a couple of hundred basis points in 3Q from 2Q and curious if that's also signifying some contribution from Dish. Thank you.
Jay Brown:
I'll take the big picture question and Dan can walk through how it’s flowing through the income statement. One of the things that we made the comment -- I made the comment in the prepared remarks and was also in the press release. The amount of leasing activity we're seeing in the business is just unprecedented, 50% above our historical 5-year average in terms of core activity is just remarkable, a business that rarely has inflection points to see that kind of uplift in activity is just really unique, and it's been 20 years since we've seen this kind of level of activity, and I think largely that is occurring because of the backdrop that we have with the wireless carriers. Among Verizon, AT&T and T-Mobile, all 3 of them are at a place where they're deploying network at scale, both new sites as well as upgrading existing sites to 5G. So that's a very healthy dynamic to have all of the existing carriers spending at a pretty healthy rate. And just as an aside, I would say, it's also really encouraging to us based on the commentary that they've made and the Capex dollars that they've allocated towards this. This is going to be a multiyear activity. It's not as though the activity is just going to wind down in calendar year '22. So, we feel like the backdrop for those three carriers is really good and likely to stay for an extended period of time. And then on top of that, as you referenced with DISH, on top of the three carriers, the legacy carriers deploying 5G, we also have this new entrant, who is deploying a network from scratch. And that activity is beginning in earnest in 2022. So obviously we signed the agreement with them last year, they made a large commitment to us, 20,000 sites, and it's been impressive to watch as they've stood up that organization and gotten themselves in a place where they can deploy network at scale and at speed. And so, I know our team employees listening to this call this morning, a lot of them are very, very busy standing up to this new nationwide network for DISH. And so, that is causing some of the other revenues in the mix to tick up a little bit. I would also point out, in addition to the -- what you would think of as traditional wireless carriers, there are also a number of new business models that any one of them were not having a meaningful uplift on tower leasing activity but as a combined group of others. There are lots of businesses that are trying to figure out ways to deploy wireless network, and they are using spectrum bands outside of the spectrum bands that are owned by the wireless carriers, and that's contributing to our revenue growth, and we think that will continue over time.
Daniel Schlanger:
Yeah, Mike, I'll try to address the other part of your question, which is the activity levels versus what flows through into the income statement going into 2022. As you pointed out, there's always a bit of a lag time between activity and when we can see the revenue. We don't start recognizing revenue until a lease has begun, and that means that the site is up and running and able to produce and able to deploy the spectrum. And what that can do at times is delink for a period of time activity from when we see the improvement in our income statement, but what I'll say is that when we look at 2022, we are really excited by how that's going, because as Jay had mentioned, the increase in activity is flowing through both in 2021, which has a 30% increase in core leasing tower activity over 2020, and then again in 2022, we're increasing again by 20%. And as Jay mentioned, those are huge numbers when you're talking about our business. So, it is flowing through our income statement even with those delays or delays in -- from activity to when we actually turn on a lease. And the last thing I would point out is -- we've made this point before, but specifically with Dish, even though we signed a long-term contract with them, we won't recognize revenue until we have a lease which means we have a site that is capable of deploying spectrum, I mean propagating that spectrum. So, there will be time between the activity levels and when that leasing activity hits our income statement as well, but that's reflected in our 2022 outlook.
Michael Rollins:
Thanks.
Operator:
And next we'll hear from Simon Flannery of Morgan Stanley.
Simon Flannery:
Great. Thank you. Good morning. I noticed in the guidance you have non-renewals stepping up a little year-over-year. I wondered if you could just go through some of the assumptions there by business units. And in particular on the T-Mobile, Sprint churn, is this sort of a worst-case scenario? Do you expect these to be turned down? Any updates on how you're addressing some of the future churn? Is there any more clarity on perhaps some sort of master lease agreement around that?
Daniel Schlanger:
Yes, Simon. I'll take the first part of that and I will hand it over to Jay for the longer-term question. With respect to the churn in 2022, as you pointed out, it is up a bit. Part of that increase is we expect to be on the low end of our churn in 2021, which is around 1% or around $40 million or so in 2021 in our Tower business, going to about $60 million or 1.5% in 2022. The majority of that incremental $20 million of churn is related to Sprint sites. And it would be consistent with what our disclosure has been in our supplemental earnings materials over time of what those sites look like and what could be at risk for 2022. We do think that's going to happen, which is why we have it in the outlook. I wouldn't say it's conservative or aggressive. It's just our belief of how that's going to play out. And with respect to the rest of the churn, you can see that we're going to have churn on our fiber solutions business a bit down year-over-year from 2021 to 2022, but we also have a corresponding reduction in a new leasing activity on our fiber solutions business. So we think that business will continue to grow around 3%. That's how we're thinking about churn going into 2022.
Jay Brown:
Simon, on the second part of your question, longer term, we certainly intend to work with T-Mobile. I don't have anything to report on this front. Obviously, they've been clear about the need to achieve some synergies in their network as they go through the process of combining with Sprint and rationalizing some sites. We think those are most likely to come on the sites that we refer to as dual residency, meaning sites were both T-Mobile and Sprint are co-located on the same site. And we'll work with them as they go through that process of achieving those synergies. At the same time, they need to port the spectrum onto other sites and onto the Legacy T-Mobile assets. And so there's a large coordination work with them, both in terms of achieving the synergies and also standing their network up and getting it ready for 5G. And so we're actively engaged in that. I think we still have the view that over the long term, the growth opportunities there are going to exceed that of any churn that we'll realize. And then obviously to help investors understand the bookends, we've provided details in the supplements so that you can see both the amounts of future leases as they come up for renewal and the dates of those renewals. But at the moment, nothing to report other than continuing to -- we want to be a good partner with them and we'll certainly help to facilitate the goals that they have around their network.
Simon Flannery:
Great. Thanks a lot.
Operator:
Next we'll hear from Brett Feldman of Goldman Sachs.
Brett Feldman:
Thanks Ed. Two questions; you've made the point that there tends to be a lag between when you sign business and when it shows up on your P&L. And I think that's also pretty true with regards to your Capex, particularly in the small cell business, there can be a pretty big lag between when you're deploying that fiber, when you're actually getting the leasing activity. So with this being the second consecutive year where your discretionary Capex is at a lower run rate, I believe predominantly because of what's going on with the no deployments. Is this deployment run-rate of about 5000 you're seeing this year, probably what you're going to get next year until we get visibility into Capex moving higher. So that will be the first question. And then the second is, why did you decide to go ahead and once again raise dividend by more than the rate of growth in AFFO per share? It certainly seems like you could also consider doing buybacks in years where you think you have a little excess capacity. And I was hoping you can maybe give some insight in terms of how you're thinking about outsized dividend growth versus other forms of capital returns?
Daniel Schlanger:
Absolutely. On your first question, I think you correctly characterize the nature of the Capex. As it's coming down, we're putting less nodes on air -- small cell nodes on air in 2021. Similar level in 2022 so naturally the amount of Capex would come down. There is Capex in those numbers related to nodes going into future periods. We've had a lot of bookings in 2021. On the small cell side, will be well north of 15,000 of new bookings in calendar year 2021, and we're getting started on building those nodes. While they won't come on until, in all likelihood, 2023 and beyond, we've already begun work on that. So there is a bit of a lag there. In terms of Capex per note and unit economics, all of that has basically stayed in line with what we've seen historically. So as we get through the soft cost of getting these nodes permitted, etc., then we'll have a better sense of when they'll come on air and then the bulk of the Capex is incurred in the last few months prior to the installation of the notes and in the earlier months,
Jay Brown:
we incurred a Capex associated with more soft costs around zoning and planning that we go down the process of. I think we would expect to see some uplift in Capex as we get into 2023 and the total number of nodes that we're deploying moves north of where we're going to see it in this calendar year and in 2022. On the dividend question, the reason why we raised it 11% this year is a combination of both the outsized growth that we saw in calendar year 2021 and then where we think the guidance will be for 2022. So our philosophy around the dividend has been basically to hold the payout ratio. Think of that as a percentage of AFFO per share to hold that payout ratio in that 75% to 80% of AFFO per share and to pay that out in the form of a dividend. So in essence, the dividend raise this year is a combination of the outperformance that we've seen in 2021 and raising the dividend to bring it back in line associated with that outperformance in the calendar year, and then what we think the performance will be in 2022 in the operating business. So that's our goal and how we think about sizing it is just looking at AFFO per share for the next year, and then sizing the dividend appropriately for that. With regards to the last part of your question around how do we think about share purchases, we're coming right in line here based on the growth with where we'll be at our targeted amount of leverage of about 5 times debt to EBITDA. And we certainly, as we have done historically, want to put the capital to work at its highest and best use and highest and best use to us is a risk-adjusted return based on what we think the long-term dividend per share will be. And most recently, the answer to that question has been answered largely by what we believe the benefit of small cells will be to the business long-term of growing that dividend over the long term and maximizing the dividend per share. To the extent that as we move to a place where we're at our targeted level of leverage and we're creating additional leverage capacity and investment capacity. We'll continue to do that same analysis and rigorously look at what do we think maximizes the return and uses up the capital that we have available to us. Historically, we've done a lot of share purchases with that excess capital and leverage capacity, and that's absolutely what we test the returns against. So we'll have to see as we get into the future years around what's the opportunity around small cells and saw an opportunity to invest there that meets that total of highest and best use for the capital, and test that always against the opportunity to buy back shares. So you should certainly expect that points in time in the future that we will be buyers of our shares, because that will be the highest invested use and we'll use some of the capacity that we have to go into the market and buy back our shares.
Brett Feldman:
Thank you.
Operator:
Phil Cusick of JP Morgan.
Amir:
Hi, this is Omair for Phil. In your current outlook for 2022, are you expecting any carriers to be more active or less active than they are currently or do you assume that they continue at the current level of activity? And I assume this is -- are they baked into those estimates? And another one that I had was, how should macro tower activity be weighted in 2022? Is it somewhat back-end loaded? Thank you.
Jay Brown:
Yeah, on your first question around the activity by carrier, I don't want to speak to the specific deployment plans of our customers. As I mentioned in the question I think that Mike asked, the activity across all of the carriers is elevated. We're going to see -- we think we'll see in 2022 about a 20% increased activity as compared to 2021. And that's really coming across the board. So we're seeing elevated levels of activity from all of the carriers. With regards to whether the year is back-end loaded, we're going into this year with a lot of activity that's currently underway. And given the nature of the business where we find a lot of leases in the current year and the next year we get the benefit of having all 12 months of leasing in that year, we're going up the ramp as we go through 2021. So I think you'll see a similar ramping as we go through calendar year 2022, but maybe not quite as back-end loaded as what we've seen in past years, because a lot of that uplift in actual activity applications that will drive that leasing activity that we're going to see in terms of the numbers that Dan was walking through earlier and impact the income statement, a lot of that actual application and leasing activity is actually occurring in this calendar year in 2021. So we've either got signed leases or we have a lot of visibility to it, which would indicate that it's not a back-end loaded year; we're not counting on a big uplift in the second half of next year.
Daniel Schlanger:
Yeah. And Amir, I will just answer one last question you threw in there which is, is DISH included in our outlook? The answer is yes. We have included the activity that we anticipate for all our customers in 2022.
Amir:
Okay, great. And if I may, on the small cells side, how much in 3Q was that activities one-timer, and what do you expect in 4Q? And overall looking at the outlook for small cell in 2022, is similar that loss activity roll over to 2023 or should we be thinking about that differently?
Jay Brown:
Yeah, there was a little bit but not enough to be material to the results in the quarter. Certainly, as we talked about big picture, the number of nodes, we talked about the sum last quarter. The reason why we lowered the number of nodes that we're going to put on air in '21 and '22 was the decision that the carriers made around where to put their Capex dollars on equipment and they focus those dollars towards macro sites and push to the right the delivery timing on small cells and so we're reflecting that in our outlook. In terms of nodes committed, there's no change in the number of nodes, so all it did was slide those nodes into years '23 and '24. So we've got some work that we've gotten done that are ready to install those nodes once equipment is delivered, and we'll see the benefit of that in '23 and '24, but we didn't lose any of the nodes. We just pushed them out into future periods.
Amir:
Thank you.
Operator:
Next layer from Colby Synesael of Cowen.
Colby Synesael:
Hi. Great. Thank you. Two questions. One is, implied in your 8% AFFO growth for 2022 would be a step-down in AFFO sequentially in the fourth quarter of this year to get to the midpoint effectively of your guidance, which is what your growth assumptions are based off of for next year, I appreciate that in sustaining Capex will go up. But even if you go to the higher end of your range which you maintained, it doesn't quite get you, quite frankly, low enough on AFFO to get that number low enough to get to that effectively 8% for next year. Are there any other items that are worth flagging that we should be mindful of going 3Q to 4Q that would take AFFO down to -- effectively get you to that midpoint for 2021? And then secondly, just as a follow-up to the question that was just asked, is it fair to assume that you would anticipate seeing leasing of around 15,000 small cells again this year? And really what we need to be sensitive to is really just how that rolls in or would you anticipate that leasing itself could be down as well this year? Thank you.
Daniel Schlanger:
Colby, I'll take the first part of that, and of Jay for the leasing question. You're right in everything you said about going into Q4. There is a step-down in AFFO. It is largely driven by an increase in expenses and capital, both operating expenses and sustaining capital. That happens in the fourth quarter. That has happened in plenty of times in our past as well. Having said that, it will -- as you pointed out, it will likely be towards the higher end of the range when we get toward -- when we get -- whe we end 2021, we will be at the higher end of our range. We don't move the range when we are going to still be within it. That's why we give a range. We don't want to continually move it, but it will be likely be higher than the midpoint.
Colby Synesael:
That's for sustaining Capex as -- You're referring to sustaining Capex being at the higher end?
Daniel Schlanger:
Well, sustaining Capex will be but our AFFO per share will be higher than the midpoint most likely as it plays out in 2021.
Colby Synesael:
Yeah, okay.
Jay Brown:
Colby on your second question around small cell nodes, let me just back up and make sure I give the full picture. In terms of what we're going to put on air, meaning, go through the operational process of building them and turning them up, we think we'll do about 5,000 this year, calendar year 2021, and turn another 5,000 on in calendar year 2022. Those will be that we put on air. In terms of bookings, which would refer to a node that a carrier makes a commitment to us, they sign a contract, commit to a node, and then we 'll build it in future periods, our bookings in calendar year 2021 will be well in excess of 15,000 nodes that we do in terms of bookings this calendar year. And those will come on in future years. As we get into calendar year 2022, we'll give you an update on where we think bookings will be at that point. But for calendar year '21, we think the number will be well in excess of 15,000 which is by far the highest bookings year we've ever had in our history on the small cell side, and I think it's interesting. I think it just points to the conversation I was having a few minutes ago around the landscape that we have with the carriers. This is as healthy an environment with the carriers as we've ever seen; long-term commitments on the capital side, committed amounts by each of the legacy carriers, and the build-out of a brand-new network. And at the moment, the mix that they have is heavily weighted towards macro sites. But I think over time, as we have seen in the past, I think there will be some shift of that mix of total capital spend, where a portion of it will go towards small cells and there will be less focused on macro sites. I think you can see that in the commitments that the carriers are making to us by over 15,000 small cell bookings this year that they're thinking about in future periods, that's going to take a significant chunk of their Capex than those future years that we would think would move away from macro sides and towards small cells, and it may look more like what it did 2 or 3 years ago, when we saw a real slowdown on the macro side and were benefiting from an allocation of that capital towards small cell s. So I think that's the benefit that we have in terms of our strategy of providing wireless networks to the carriers and we'll benefit if they are focused on small cells or we'll benefit if they're focused on macro sites. And over time, both are just critically important to the way networks are going to be developed.
Colby Synesael:
Great. Thank you. One Real quick. Just follow-up, or actually not follow up, a separate question. Should we still think of the book-to-bill for towers being roughly 6 months? Is that roughly kind of how you think about on average or is that number changed much?
Jay Brown:
I think that's a pretty fair average. To the extent that we're doing amendments to existing sites, that's a really fair average. To the extent that somebody is going on a tower for the first time, that average is probably a little closer to 12 months than it is 6 months. And the zoning and planning process really unchanged, but depends on the type of activity. If it's amendments, we're probably getting close to in that 6 to 9 months range. If it's a brand-new installation on an existing site, we're probably closer to 12 months.
Colby Synesael:
Thank you.
Operator:
Next we'll hear from David Barden of Bank of America.
David Barden :
Thanks guys. I appreciate the opportunity to take some questions. So I guess I got a couple. The first one is maybe Dan. When looking at the core leasing macro tower revenue increment 155 to 165, there's a lot of interest in making sure we understood the percentage of that that is locked in within holistic MLA guardrails and the percentage that could conceivably maybe be a little bit better than what your initial expectation is depending on what we learn about carrier activity levels as we go into 2022. The second question was I want to make sure I understand, Jay, some of the comments you're making in your -- At the end of last year, we had 50,000 small cells on air and 30,000 in the committed backlog, that's 80,000. In your opening remarks, you said you still have 80,000 on air committed. But then you said there's 15,000 that we've billed, and when you bill -- sorry, that you've booked this year, which makes me think that that 80,000 should be actually 95,000. Am I wrong about that?
Jay Brown:
Yeah, I'll take the second question and Dan can take the first question. The 15 -- obviously this year, calendar year 2021, 15,000 of the nodes that we booked is Verizon, the big announcement that we made in January of this year. So it may just be, Dave, a little bit of the timing difference between are you looking at the 80,000 nodes at 12/31/2020 or when we did fourth quarter earnings in the first quarter of this year, I think is so we're -- I'm referring -- when I made my comments, I'm referring to total nodes on air or in process of 80,000 nodes in total.
David Barden :
Okay. That's the same number as at the fourth quarter results, which was in February.
Jay Brown:
Correct. And obviously, we're rounding to 5,000 increments, so we're not showing the movements as they move in anything less than 5,000 increments.
David Barden :
Okay. Got it. And so then just the follow-up on that is so there really hasn't been any new small cell bookings outside of that very initial part of the year. So is there an expectation on your part that as people pivot from the macro build and start to plan for that '23, '24 time frame that the bookings should kind of come back into next year?
Jay Brown:
Well, there have been bookings just not to the point where we were -- we're increasing the increment by 5,000. So but there have been bookings this year, and I think there will be. So we'll be an excessive just the Verizon commitment in the -- in this calendar year 2021. I do think, based on zooming out a little bit and thinking about this from a bigger picture standpoint, the second part of your question there, I would affirm that as we get further into this year and into next year, we would expect there to be more booking. The carriers are focused at the moment on macro sites and building those out. But there are -- we're also having significant conversations with them about the requirements that they're going to have around cell site density. And we think that will drive a lot of activity towards small cells. So in periods beyond 2023 and beyond, I think we will see an uplift to the total number of nodes that both we have in bookings and then, ultimately, that we're putting on air as a need that they have in the network once they've done this initial overlay of putting it all on macro site.
David Barden :
Got it.
Daniel Schlanger:
Okay. So Dave, I'll take that first question around our core leasing on the towers, how much is it [Indiscernible] When we look out into future periods like 2022, we obviously take into account the agreements we have with our customers. And as I think you're implying in the question, we have those with several of our customers at this point, but even within those agreements, we have upside. They're not necessarily capped. And therefore, what we try to do is come up with an estimate of what we think the activity will be from each of our customers based off of what we know today have already been signed, what we have a really good line of sight into going into next year, and then what we think will happen in next year. And when we come up with that -- when we came up with the 155 to 165, that's our best guess at what we think that activity will look like and how it will be monetized within our agreements. But I would say that there's always going to be some ability for that to be better or worse than what we expect if the activity is going to be better or worse than what we expect. As Jay has mentioned a few times, we're really excited about the level of activity going into next year; that 155 to 165 is an increase over a really good 2021. So we're excited, we feel good about what that activity level looks like. And we'll see how it plays out in terms of when our customers come to us and want to put more equipment on towers.
David Barden :
Great. Thanks, guys.
Operator:
Nick Del Deo of MoffettNathanson.
Nick Del Deo:
Hey. Thanks for taking my question. One on fiber solutions and one on small cells. First, as we think about the leasing for fiber solutions in '22 versus '21, is that decline just a function of lapping some COVID -driven capacity cells in 21? And what's causing that churn to come down a little bit? And then, on the small cell front, as we think about the potential timing for installing what you have in the backlog over the next few years, do all those nodes have firm dates by which the carriers need to start paying you for them, or do they have flexibility to keep deferring installations if they choose? What's the dynamic there?
Jay Brown:
On the first question, we've talked about this for a long time. We think the fiber solutions business is going to operate at around a 3% annual growth rate and that's what we're seeing in calendar year '21. I think we'll see a similar level in '22. There was some impact during COVID, particularly in the early, early months of 2021 and late 2020, associated with offices being closed. But honestly, because of the nature of large enterprises, universities, and government, which make up the bulk of the fiber solutions revenue that we do, We were not impacted nearly to the extent that fiber companies who are more focused on small and medium enterprises saw on impact. So we didn't see a falloff as many of them did. And then conversely, as the economy started to open back up, we just didn't not see as much of an uplift. So I would say similar business environment to what we've seen the last couple of years, maybe a little bit better, but I think the growth is basically in line with what we've seen of about 3%. Churn is down, we think it will be down. This is an area that I know our team has focused really hard on. A part of it is making sure that we're being thoughtful about the kind of customers that we pursue on the front end. And then also as we manage the relationship as we get close to a contract renewal, being thoughtful about how we handle those contract renewals. I think the team has done a really nice job and we've seen some benefit from some of their work and we think we'll see more of that in '22 as we go through the process of managing the renewals and the end of term on some of those contracts. On your second question around small cell nodes and firm dates, we talked a little bit I think, Nick, about this on the last quarterly call, and it should be viewed this way. We made an affirmative choice to work with our customers on pushing out these nodes into future period. Our contractual rights, I think, would have given us the ability to really push to turn these these nodes to the point where we could have handed them over and charged rent to the carriers, but we made the affirmative decision, given the volume that was coming our way, and the reallocation of the dollars from the small cells to the macro sites. We made the affirmative decision to work with them and give them an ability to push out those dates. So there may be circumstances that arise in the future where we would not be willing to do that. But this was an affirmative decision that we made based on managing the customer relationship and maximizing what we thought was the return. The volume, as I said before, the volume and the revenues and cash flows all end up at the same place. But if we could maximize early some of the macro site revenues and work with the customers to give them an extension on when we turn the small cells on, we thought that made good business sense and that's why we did it. But contractually, we would have a right to do something a little different.
Nick Del Deo:
Okay. Got it. Thank you, Jay.
Operator:
Next we'll hear from Matt Niknam of Deutsche Bank.
Matt Niknam:
Hey, thanks for taking the question. Just 2 if I could. First, maybe going back to a question that was asked earlier on the call. In terms of new entrants or maybe newer contributors, to what extent are you seeing or maybe anticipating contributions from either new CBRS deployments from cable, or via fixed wireless broadband deployments from some newer entrants? And then, secondly, on the topic of supply chain constraints, I'm just wondering, has that, to any extent, impacted customer behavior either today to review embedded anymore conservatism that some of these constraints may have in terms of customer activity next year? Thanks.
Jay Brown:
Now, on your first question, you called out a number of different items. I would put all of those in a bucket and say yes, all of those are helping. CBRS else is helping, cable's helping, others broadcast, that is helping -- there are a number of areas that we're seeing leasing demand for macro sites. And we think that will continue into the future. I wouldn't call it out as a material impact to our 2021 or 2022 leasing results, but at the margin, it does help and does drive the incremental growth that we're talking about in site rental revenues. I think given the amount of spectrum that there is outside of the hands of the carriers and the capital that is in some of those sectors in order to deploy wireless network, I think on the longer-term model, if you take a 5 or a 10-year view, I think there is some meaningful leasing activity that's going to happen outside of what you think of as the legacy or traditional wireless carriers that will benefit macro and small -- macro sites and as well as small cells over time. And as we start to see that, we'll give you more details around what those impacts are going to be. On your second question around supply chain constraints, obviously, I think the whole world is feeling the impacts of that, much has been written about it. We've worked really closely with our customers on when they expect to receive equipment and the timing of that and then trying to make sure we line up sites to be ready for them based on when the equipment is received. I think they've done a nice job of working with their supply chains and having equipment available to get 5G networks launched in the time frame that they expected. So it's a coordination activity, certainly a communication activity that our teams are having with their teams, and thus far that dialogue has proven to be a predictable indicator of when actual activity does happen on our site. So we're watching it, paying attention to it, but they feel pretty good about the fact that our outlook does assume the environment of constraints that are out there, and our leasing expectations are a function of the coordination and communication we're having with our carriers on when equipment will be available.
Matt Niknam:
Great. Thanks, Jay.
Operator:
Rick Prentiss of Raymond James.
Rick Prentiss:
Good morning.
Jay Brown:
Morning, Rick.
Rick Prentiss:
Hey. Couple of questions. First, really appreciate you guys breaking out the details in the '22 guidance on what's been obviously a big issue for us, that non-cash amortization of prepaid rent. We appreciate your focus on core. Wondering if it's possible when you do the supplement -- page 18 of the supplement where you give the segment information, but it's just towers versus fiber. Can we get that information historical and going forward towers versus small cells versus fiber solutions?
Jay Brown:
Thanks for the suggestion, we'll take a look at that.
Rick Prentiss:
Yeah. And since you're [Indiscernible] regarding that way, really help to break that up because it's and important ion, and I'm really glad you guys are focusing on the core side because that really is the ongoing forward cash flow. Second one, you touched on a couple of times, David, and others asking, is there an update to how many small cell nodes are on air right now, or is that also something that comes at in 5,000 increments?
Daniel Schlanger:
Yeah. We're just under 55,000 that are on air today.
Rick Prentiss:
Okay.
Daniel Schlanger:
So, there are 25,000 in the backstop.
Rick Prentiss:
Right. Makes sense. And then conceptually, augmentation of towers. So you get prepaid rent ads from Verizon doing C-band, T-Mobile integrating Sprint, Dish putting 5G on the network, is there a thought that the Tower augmentation spending needs to go up at some point to handle all this? And then the reimbursements could come up as well in the future?
Daniel Schlanger:
Yeah. I mean, that's obviously could happen. It depends on how we're going to work through with our customers and what that prepaid rent looks like. And also it is impacted by what they want to put on which towers. Typically speaking, co-locations come with more augmentation CAPEX than do the amendments. So it really depends on how that all is going to play out and what we have going into going into 2022 is Tower Capex is coming down slightly from 2021, but nothing all that meaningful so it's all activity-based ultimately, Rick, and and where that activity ends up and what we get back from our customers and that does fluctuate up and down over time.
Rick Prentiss:
One more quick one then you get someone else squeezed in. Any updated thoughts on in-building systems? There's been a lot of talk about private 5G networks and what the opportunity might be. What are your thoughts as far as capital deployment, [Indiscernible] kind of question on what's the opportunity for private 5G in building systems?
Jay Brown:
The in-building, and I would put venues into this category too. 5 or 6 years ago, we had talked about in-building and venues. And we saw some opportunities, but relatively limited. And that business has really picked up on the small cell side. And we are seeing some really nice opportunities on in-building and venues and seeing some healthy growth there. The returns are good. It's a place where we like to invest. Certainly, it falls into that category of the densification comments that I was making earlier. Any place you see a densification of people, with the growth in traffic that we're seeing, really, the only way to manage the network towards a viable solution is to go in and put in small cells. And that's true in the public right-of-ways, and it's true in venues and in-building. So the growth in traffic that we're talking about and the deployment of these 5G networks, this requires a greater densification and in building and venues are following the same pattern that we're seeing happen in right-of-ways.
Rick Prentiss:
Thanks, guys. Stay well.
Jay Brown:
But maybe we can try to squeeze in 2 more callers before we drop off this morning.
Operator:
Next, we'll hear from Sam Badri of Credit Suisse.
Sam Badri:
Hi. Thank you. I wanted to ask you about your 10 sort of power that moved higher in the quarter and comes along with a solid move in your rental revenue per tower. Is there any opportunity for accelerate the tendency improvement given the 5G bills at some of the other trends that you mentioned and as you see tenancy go up, what's the impact of free cash flow at this point?
Jay Brown:
Yeah, we are seeing increased tenancy on the towers. Historically, we've added about 1 tenant every 10 years, roughly. I think that's a pretty good forecast for what we'll see over the long term, it's underpinning our 7% to 8% targeted growth in the dividend over time. So think we'll -- I think that's the path that we're on. And as I made the comments earlier around the capital spending by the carriers and the environment that we're in, I think we've got a good tailwind to continue to stay on that path of increasing tenancy of about 1 tenant over 10 years. The unit economics of the business remain intact. and Dan mentioned this in his prepared remarks, but we're dropping $0.90 of every dollar up at the organic site rental revenue line. We're dropping that all the way down to AFFO. It's a real credit to our team who has done a tremendous job of managing expenses and being thoughtful about places where we can take out costs in order to achieve that, those very high incremental margins on incremental dollars of revenue. It's one of the beauties of our business model and certainly one we think we can continue to sustain and improve upon.
Sam Badri:
Got it. One other follow-up is, does your guidance include any type of benefit from the Biden infrastructure bill that may be passed in the near future? And then, if your guidance does not include it, how do you imagine the broadband budgeted spend benefit your business if there is a path for that?
Jay Brown:
We have not anticipated any of that in our current forecast or guidance. I think the most likely path for benefit from that is indirect. Wouldn't necessarily expect that we will be a direct recipient of those federal funds, but the customers that use both our fiber, our small cells, and our towers could absolutely be recipients of federal funds that would then need to build network and as I made comments earlier, the most efficient way to deploy spectrum and deploy network is to share it. And so our offering of infrastructure -- shared infrastructure lowers their cost and speeds their time to deployment. And so we certainly would expect to benefit indirectly as those federal funds become available and broadband for all becomes built out.
Sam Badri:
Got it. Thank you.
Jay Brown:
Operator, maybe we can take one more. Sure. Absolutely. April, may we can take one more question.
Operator:
Sure, and that question will come from Walter Piecyk of LightShed.
Walter Piecyk:
Thanks. I can't believe Rick Prentiss took credit for that prepaid after all those times I've annoyed Schlanger with my prepaid questions over the years. But I echo his comments, so thanks for including that now. Jay, just from 10,000 feet, when you've talked a lot about this kind of, I mean, you haven't used the word, but basically the pivot in the near-term in terms of the focused on macro versus small cells, and at some point it's going to come back and you've got these orders in hand. But like when you talk to Verizon or AT&T, it seems like -- or even T-Mobile -- it seems that the macro focused and that the C-band plans, even in terms of upgrading to massive Mymo, is a 2 to 3 year process. So I'm just curious, kind of your thoughts, when do you think there will be this pivot back to the small cells where we will see some actual growth there?
Jay Brown:
Yeah. I think some of that you can see in the -- Thanks for the question Walt. I think some of it you can see in just their activity with us, the commitment that they made of 15,000 small cell nodes is an indication of that they're thinking about it in the near-term planning horizon of what's going to be required in their network as they're going through the process of working on macro sites, and then working on --and then starting to infill and densify the network. And this is a pattern that's followed. We saw this occur with 3G. We saw it occur with 4G, where -- and now we're seeing it with 5G, where the first step of deployment in the network is the curious go and touch all of the assets that they're already on and upgrade those sites to the new technology. And then once they get that overlay done, then they come back and they really focus heavily on densification. So when we look at the way the networks are performing, both on terms of the sites that have already been upgraded and the data usage on those sites, from a technical standpoint, the capacity starts to get reached and therefore they've got to -- the term that's been historically used, they've got to self-split, they've got to reuse that spectrum over more sites. And the dynamic that we've seen in the market and I think this is reflective of the nodes that we're booking now, there's not other macro sites that they can use to self -split that spectrum. They're already on those macro sites and so they've got to figure out a way to densify the network and reuse the spectrum in places that are not the traditional macro sites, and we think that's where we get the real benefit on the small cell side. I think as we get into calendar years '23 and beyond, I think we'll really see that movement, probably similar to what we saw at 4G. We got to the point where in 4G, we had added 4G to all of the towers and then we saw significant activity on the small cell side as they upgraded sites to improve the network and densified 4G using small cells. We think we'll see a similar thing on the 5G side to an even greater extent, given the types of spectrum bands that are being used and the amounts of increase in data traffic. It's just going to require more than macro sites can deliver. Okay. Well, I appreciate everyone joining this morning. Thanks for the time. And I do want to thank our team, our employees who've done a phenomenal job navigating through the challenges of COVID over the last 20 plus months here. And continuing to deliver for our customers, they are incredibly busy and have done a tremendous job for customers. So I want to say thank you to them and more to come on that front. So thanks everyone for joining the quarter to talk to you soon.
Operator:
That does conclude today's conference. Thank you all for your participation. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Good day, and welcome to the Crown Castle Q2, 2021 Earnings Conference Call. Today's call is being recorded. And now at this time, I'd like to turn the conference over to Mr. Ben Lowe, Vice President of Corporate Finance. Please go ahead, sir.
Benjamin Lowe:
Great, thank you Cody, and good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us today as we discuss our second quarter 2021 results. With me on the call this morning are Jay Brown, Crown Castle's Chief Executive Officer; and Dan Schlanger, Crown Castle's Chief Financial Officer. To aid the discussion, we have posted supplemental materials in the Investors section of our website at crowncastle.com that will be referenced throughout the call this morning. This conference call will contain forward-looking statements which are subject to certain risks, uncertainties and assumptions and the actual results may vary materially from those expected. Information about potential factors which could affect our results is available in the press release and the Risk Factors sections of the Company's SEC filings. Our statements are made as of today, July 22, 2021, and we assume no obligation to update any forward-looking statements. In addition, today's call includes discussions of certain non-GAAP financial measures. Tables reconciling these non-GAAP financial measures are available in the supplemental information package in the Investors section of the Company's website at crowncastle.com. Before I turn the call over to Jay, I want to mention that we will take as many questions as possible following our prepared remarks, but we plan to limit the call to 60 minutes this morning. So with that, let me turn the call over to Jay.
Jay Brown:
Thanks, Ben. And thank you everyone for joining us on the call this morning. As you saw from our second quarter results and increased full year outlook, we continue to generate significant growth in cash flows and dividends from the deployment of 5G in the U.S. We are experiencing the highest level of tower activity in our history, resulting in a year of outsized growth as we now anticipate 12% growth in AFFO per share for full year 2021, meaningfully above our long-term annual target of 7% to 8%. Our current 7% to 8% growth target was established in 2017 when we expanded our fiber and small cell strategy through the completion of our largest acquisition. This 7% to 8% growth target was an increase of 100 basis points from our prior target, since we expected a diverse portfolio to increase our ability to consistently drive long-term growth. Since that time, the strategy has worked better than expected as we have grown our dividend per share at a compounded annual growth rate of 9% with some years being driven by outsized growth in our fiber and small cell business like last year, and other years like this one being driven by higher growth in our tower business. This record level of activity is tied to the existing wireless carriers increasing their spend to add more equipment to tower sites and DISH starting to build a new nationwide 5G network from scratch. We expect this elevated level of activity to continue beyond this year and support future growth on our towers. While driving strong growth in our tower business this year, the initial focus by our customers on towers has also led to some delays in our small cell deployment shifting the timing of when we expect to complete the nearly 30,000 small cells contractually committed in our backlog. When combined with zoning and permitting challenges as well as the previously disclosed Sprint cancellation, we now expect to deploy approximately 5,000 small cells in each of this year and next year with the remaining nearly 20,000 from our current backlog completed beyond 2022. This delay has not impacted our view of long-term attractiveness of small cells since the fundamental need for small cells continues and the unit economics remain in line with our expectation. With more than 50,000 small cells on air, we have already seen how important small cells are as a key tool used by the carriers to add network capacity by reusing their spectrum over shorter and shorter distances. We believe, small cells will be an even more important tool going forward as the nature of wireless networks requires continued cell site densification to meet the increasing demand for data, especially if 5G networks are deployed. As a result, we believe these timing factors will not alter our long-term returns on our investments or our ability to deliver on our growth objectives. Dan is going to discuss our second quarter results and our expectations for the balance of 2021 in a bit more detail, so I want to focus my comments this morning on our strategy to deliver the highest risk-adjusted returns for our shareholders. One of the core principles of our strategy is to focus on the U.S. market because we believe it is the best market for communications infrastructure ownership with the most attractive growth profile and the lowest risk. With that view in mind, we have invested nearly $40 billion in shared infrastructure assets that we believe are mission critical for today's wireless networks and sit in front of what is expected to be a massive decade-long investment by our customers to deploy 5G in the U.S. As you can see on Slide 4, our tower and fiber investments are at two different stages of development and maturity. Our tower investment began more than 20 years ago at an approximately 3% yield when we built and acquired assets that we could share across multiple customers. By providing a lower cost to each customer, we have leased up those assets over the years and generated compelling returns for our shareholders. As we have proven out the value proposition for our customers over time, our tower assets now generate a yield on invested capital of 11% with meaningful capacity to support additional growth. As we realize that wireless network architecture would need to evolve with 4G requiring a network of cell sites that would be much denser and closer to end users, we expanded our shared infrastructure offering beyond towers, establishing the industry leading small cell business in the U.S. It's encouraging that the business is already generating a current yield on invested capital of more than 7%, given the relative immaturity of these investments. To provide additional visibility into how our investments are progressing, we've updated our analysis of the cohort of five markets we introduced a year ago. Looking at a collective view of how these five markets have performed over the last year on Slide 5, growth from both small cell and fiber solutions has contributed to an incremental yield of 7% on the approximately $200 million of incremental net capital investment. Adjusted for the timing impacts associated with the large in-process small cell projects where capital investment has occurred in advance for the corresponding revenue and cash flows, the incremental yield is approximately 8%. This incremental yield resulted in a modest decline in the combined cash yield from 9.2% a year ago to 9% currently. This is in line with our expectations as we have invested in new small cells at a 6% to 7% initial yield that we expect to grow over time as we lease up those assets to additional customers. During the last year in these markets, we have added more than 500 route miles of new high-capacity fiber to support the deployment of approximately 2,000 small cells. Importantly, approximately 40% of the small cells deployed were co-located on existing fiber with the balance representing new anchor builds in attractive areas of these markets where we expect to capture future small cells and fiber solutions demand. We believe each of the markets shown on Slide 6 provides a helpful representation of how our overall strategy is performing over time, given how different these markets are when it comes to the average life of the investment, the density of small cell nodes per mile of fiber and the degree of contribution from both small cells and fiber solutions. Generally speaking, we would expect markets that have a longer average investment life to have higher returns than those with less mature assets. This is true because we have more time to add customers to existing assets which is consistent with our historical experience with towers, where we have on average added about one tenant -- one new tenant every 10 years. Similar to our experience with the movements in yield and tower investments over time as we showed back on Page 4, sometimes the steady climb of yields on legacy investment is less obvious as we invest in less mature assets that bring down the overall market yield. This is certainly true of some of the cohort. Very much related to the average life of the investment is the density of small cells per route miles of fiber. Since as in the tower business, the co-location of additional nodes on existing fiber, it's what drives the yields up over time. Consequently, we typically see a higher percentage of nodes co-located on existing fiber as the density of nodes increases. On the third characteristic, we believe the markets with both small cells and fiber solutions will ultimately have higher yields than those with only one of the two revenue streams. With this setup as a backdrop, I want to share a few observations that I think are important to highlight as we assess this dataset on Page 6. Looking across the markets, you can see the longer average investment lives tend to correspond to higher yield. Denver has the least mature capital base and the lowest market yield, but Orlando has one of the most mature capital basis and highest yield. In addition, the higher density of nodes per mile, which is generally correlated with the longer investment life and higher percentage of co-located node, generates higher market yield. The financial benefit associated with co-locating nodes is apparent when looking at the incremental yield in Los Angeles and Phoenix. In the last year about half of the small cells deployed across those two markets were co-located on existing fiber, resulting in a strong incremental yield. Meanwhile, Denver does not fit neatly into this framework featuring the highest node density, but the lowest yield. Part of the explanation is that Denver is a market where we spent more than we originally budgeted on our initial build activity, which weighs down the starting yield. Importantly, during the last 12 months, we achieved strong yields on incremental invested capital in Denver, increasing the market yield by 70 basis point. This is consistent with our experience more broadly in the small cell business as co-located nodes on existing fiber come at high incremental yields driving attractive returns over time. And finally, looking at the financial benefit of having those small cells and fiber solutions leveraging the same asset base, you can see the markets with a meaningful contribution from both offering are generally performing better. The best example to point to here is Philadelphia, where despite having a less mature capital base and lower node density even Phoenix, it is generating a similar yield on invested capital of nearly 10% due primarily to the higher contribution from fiber solutions. Our experience in Philadelphia also highlights another important point when assessing the performance of a portfolio of assets. Similar to what we've seen throughout our long history of towers, when you zoom in on a particular set of assets and focus on a short time period, the picture remains always the perfect. Over the last year, the market yield in Philadelphia contracted by 60 basis point due to a combination of a lack of small cell activity as this was not a priority market for our customer, and more muted growth from fiber solutions. Despite this, Philadelphia is still generating a very attractive yield on invested capital, and we believe our dense fiber footprint in this top market is positioned well to capture future small cell and fiber solutions growth. In summary, the combined performance of this cohort of market provides another point of validation for our strategy with small cells and fiber solutions growth contributing to attractive incremental yield while we continue to make discretionary investments in new assets that will expand the long-term growth opportunity. Turning back now to our overall strategy. As it's been obvious to all of us over the last 18 months, connectivity is vital to our economy, and how we live and interact with one another. Our strategy is to provide profitable solutions to connect communities and people to each other. Our business is also inherently sustainable, our shared infrastructure solutions limit the proliferation of infrastructure and minimize the use of natural resources. Our solutions help to address societal challenges like the digital divide in underserved communities by advancing access to education and technology. As you've seen in our last two sustainability reports, we've enhanced our focus on ESP, which we believe will drive increased revenue opportunities from things like smart cities and broadband for all, and lower operating costs in areas like power lighting, electric vehicles and interest saving, which Dan will discuss in just a minute. Importantly, none of this is possible without a team at Crown Castle that embraces diversity and inclusion ensuring that our employees and our business partners are empowered to help us serve our customers, connect our communities, and build the future of communications infrastructure in the U.S. So to wrap up, we expect to deliver outsized AFFO per share growth of 12% this year, as we capitalized on the highest tower activity levels in our history with our customers deploying 5G at scale. We expect this elevated level of tower activity to continue beyond this year. Our diversified strategy of towers and small cells has driven higher growth than expected as we have grown our dividend at a compounded annual growth rate of 9% since we expanded our strategy in 2017. And looking forward, I believe our strategy to offer a combination of towers, small cells, and fiber solutions, which are all critical components needed to develop 5G will extend our opportunity to deliver dividend per share growth of 7% to 8% per year. And when I consider the durability of the underlying demand trends we see in the U.S., that provides significant visibility into the future growth for our business, I believe Crown Castle stands out as a unique investment that we believe will generate compelling returns over time. And with that, I'll turn the call over to Dan.
Daniel Schlanger:
Thanks, Jay, and good morning everyone. As Jay mentioned, 2021 shaping up to be a great year of growth for Crown Castle, as our customers deploy 5G nationwide. The elevated tower activity drove strong second quarter financial results, and another increase to our full-year outlook, which now includes an expected 12% growth in AFFO per share. Turning to second quarter results on Slide 7, site rental revenue increased 8%, including 5.3% growth in organic contribution to site rental revenue. This growth included 8.6% growth from new leasing activity and contracted escalators net of 3.3% from non-renewal. The higher activity levels also drove a $40 million increase in contribution from services when compared to second quarter 2020, leading to 15% growth in adjusted EBITDA, and 18% growth in AFFO per share. Turning to Slide 8 with the strong second quarter and continued momentum we have again increased our full-year outlook highlighted by a $30 million increase to adjusted EBITDA and a $20 million increase the AFFO. The higher activity in towers drove the majority of these changes to our outlook, including an additional $15 million in straight line revenue, a $45 million increase to the expected contribution from services, and $15 million of additional labor costs. The lower expected volume of small cells deployed this year that Jay discussed earlier results in a $10 million reduction in organic contribution to site rental revenue, which translates to a 20 basis point reduction in the expected full-year growth in consolidated organic contribution to site rental revenue to 5.7%. Our expectations for the contribution to full-year growth from towers and fiber solutions remains unchanged at approximately 6% for towers, and 3% for fiber solutions. With small cell growth now expected to be approximately 10%, compared to our previous outlook of approximately 13% growth. Moving to investment activities, during the second quarter, capital expenditures totaled $308 million, including $19 million of sustaining expenditures, $60 million of discretionary capital expenditures for our Tower segment, and $223 million of discretionary capital expenditures for our fiber segment. Our full-year expectation for capital expenditures has reduced to $1.3 billion from our prior expectation of $1.5 billion, primarily attributed to the reduction in small cells we expect to deploy this year. Turning to our balance sheet, we exited the second quarter with a net debt-to-EBITDA ratio of approximately five times, which is in line with our target leverage. Consistent with our overall focus on delivering the highest risk adjusted returns for shareholders, we have methodically reduced risk across our balance sheet over the last five years, by reducing our exposure to variable rate debt and extending the maturity profile of our borrowings to better align the duration of our assets and liability. Specifically, since our first investment grade bond offering in early 2016, we have increased the weighted average maturity from just over five years to nearly 10 years. Increased our mix of fixed rate debt from just under 70% to more than 90%, and reduced our weighted average borrowing rate from 3.8% to 3.2%. Consistent with that focus, we issued $750 million of 10-year senior unsecured notes in June at 2.5% to refinance outstanding notes maturing in 2022, and to repay outstanding borrowings on our commercial paper program. Additionally in June, we amended our existing credit facility, extending the maturity date to June 2026 and incorporating sustainability targets that resulted in lower interest rates in the facility as we achieve specified sustainability metrics over the next five years. We believe this was the first time sustainability targets had been incorporated in the credit facility for Tower Company. Adding quantifiable sustainability metrics to our inherently sustainable business model that Jay outlined earlier highlights our commitment delivering value to all our stakeholders. Stepping back and to wrap things up, we are excited about the record levels of tower activity as our customers deploy 5G at scale. We are capitalizing on those positive fundamental and expect to deliver a great year of growth with AFFO now expected to grow 12% for the full-year 2021, meaningfully above our long-term annual target of 7% to 8%. Our diverse portfolio of assets and customer solutions has performed better than expected since we meaningfully augmented our fiber footprint with a large acquisition in 2017. As we have grown our dividend per share as a compound annual growth rate of 9% over that time. Importantly, in some years like last year, our fiber and small cell business has driven that outperformance, while in other years like this one our tower business is the driver. We continue to invest in new assets that we believe will allow us to grow our dividend per share at 7% to 8% per year going forward. This growth provides a very attractive total return opportunity with combined with our current approximately 3% dividend yield. And we believe our investments in new asset will extend this opportunity into the future. With that Cody, I'd like to open the call to questions.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] And we'll take our first question from Michael Rollins from Citi.
Michael Rollins:
Thanks and good morning. Curious if you could just unpack a bit more in terms of the change in the small cell target for 2021 and 2022 in terms of weighing the impact that the customer decisions had relative to the zoning impact and some of the issues you're experiencing just on that timeline to get small cells constructed. And then just a follow-up question, curious in the supplemental deck there were some additional straight line that was highlighted into the quarter, and there was an extension or an increase in duration of average lease length for the non-big three national carriers. I'm just curious if you could unpack the activity that you're seeing just outside of what you've experienced from the big three national carriers in the context of, of what was in the deck and how that may come through in the future? Thanks.
Jay Brown:
Yes, good morning, Mike I'll take the first question and Dan can address the second one. As we highlighted, there’s three primary components of our decision to push out some of this activity beyond 2022. There is the customer prioritization which we highlighted, the Sprint cancellation, and then also the zoning and permitting challenges. Breaking that out by years, I would put the customer prioritization and some of the zoning and planning challenges as hitting us in 2021. And then, the Sprint cancellation in 2022 is the biggest impact there along with some of the timing of the new nodes and those going out in the years beyond 2022. You know big picture, if I go back up to kind of what drives that and why are we seeing it, I would go back to past experiences as we've gone through technology cycles and upgrades, the network went from 2G to 3G, 3G to 4G, and now we're in the middle of this move from 4G to 5G. And the carriers go through a process of really prioritizing the sites that they're already on and upgrading those sites with the new technology. And in this case, it’s combination of new technology and upgrading those sites with the new spectrum bands that they've acquired. And so, what we've seen in these early stages of 5G is a real focus on getting those new spectrum bands out on macro sites. So, there has been a reprioritization of the capital spend here in calendar year 2021 of moving towards getting those macros upgraded for 5G and de-prioritizing in the near term some of the small cells. So, we think it's just - we think it's just timing, as I mentioned -- as I mentioned earlier that they're just pushing out to the right and obviously when you look at our results and our outlook, we're seeing the push on that is going toward towers, so meaningful uplift on the services side and the tower activity and a level of elevated activity, really frankly on the macro tower side as never seen in our company's history, and we think that's going to continue into 2022 as the carriers over allocate towards macro sites not only this year but the next year, and then we think it probably comes back to a more balanced activity level as we get into 2023.
Daniel Schlanger:
Yes Mike, I'll hit your second question around the straight line increases and extension. As we've discussed before, the straight line increases happened a couple of ways. On the first time install, you can see it where we get a 10-year contract, and that includes some straight line impact. But on an amendment where we go and add additional equipment on existing site, we actually extend the term of the contracts or the leases at that point. We get additional straight line for both of those things. So what I would say is the increase in activity that Jay just talked about across both first time installs and across the new amendment is causing a lot more activity and then more straight line to hit our numbers this year. And some of that is also having the impact you're talking about of extending the contracts both within the large three national carriers, but also outside of that as other companies are increasing their activity especially like we've talked about with DISH starting to deploy nationwide 5G network going forward. So, all of those things will add into both straight line and the extension of the contract life over time.
Operator:
We'll now take our next question from Simon Flannery from Morgan Stanley.
Simon Flannery:
Great to hear the commentary on the macro business, and the historical rate of activity. Could you just be a little bit clearer about what you mean by activity, where are we today? Obviously, the services business is extremely strong, but what are you seeing in terms of signed leases and when do you expect these commencements to impact your numbers in particular? Is there anything materially in your numbers this year for DISH? Thanks a lot.
Jay Brown:
Yes, Simon, thanks for the question, good morning. When we talk about activity, we're speaking specifically about applications for our towers. So, in some cases, those applications are related to going on towers that are not previously on, then in some cases those applications would be for amendments on sites that they're already co-located on. So, we made it collectively in terms of total applications. I don't want to get specifically into which carriers, we're getting the benefit from, but we're seeing it across the board on the tower side, obviously from the four carriers that everybody thinks about as well as the carriers that Dan was referencing that are outside of the large nationwide carriers, we're seeing activity increase there and 2021 represents a pretty meaningful step up from anything that we saw in the years prior to 2021. And as I mentioned before, we think that activity is going to continue into 2022 and will be reflected in our results. Obviously, big picture as I spoke to the longer term this diversification, I think has really helped us last year as we went into 2020, we saw an allocation away from towers and towards small cells, and small cells and towers really helped us as we looked at our growth rate last year, and this year moving the other direction and an allocation more towards towers, and one that we think continues into 2022 as the carriers focus on upgrading their macro site. And I think, and maybe this is kind of a heart of your question around the activity. The carriers it's very common for them - through past technological upgrade cycles. And we think this will be true in 5G, so I'll go back to the sites that they're already on and upgrade those sites for the new technology that will drive activity. And then if they move towards densification activities, then we'll see more of that focused on small cells and then also some on the macro sites as they go on towers that they're on, not on currently. But we're in the cycle of the long cycle of upgrading the 5G, those early stages, they're focused on upgrading the sites they're already on.
Simon Flannery:
Great. And just one follow-up on the CapEx point. I know you're not giving 2022 guidance, but is it fair to think then given 5,000 this year, 5,000 next year, the discretionary in CapEx should be similar to 2021?
Daniel Schlanger:
Yes, I mean, I'm going to say yes to everything you just said there Simon. We don't want to get into the guidance right now. We'll do that in three months. It's not that far from now and we will get there. But yes, the CapEx does follow activity levels. So we'll follow that along and give more specific guidance in October.
Operator:
We'll hear next from Matt Niknam with Deutsche Bank.
Matt Niknam:
Thank you for taking question. First just to go back on small cells, but I'm just wondering you highlighted three-point in terms of what drove the lower outlook for this year and next. I'm just wondering is there a risk, are you starting to see more self-build from the carriers taking a greater share of some of the newer small cells coming on air? And then secondly, I hate to go to 2022, but just given the strength in services you've increased the outlook for services the second time this year. Any initial thoughts you can share in terms of how tower site leasing growth could be trending into next year just as you see momentum on the tower side pickup? Thank you.
Jay Brown:
Yes, Matt. On your first question, I don't see it as a risk to small cells. One of the things that we have, have been a hallmark of the way we thought about capital investment has been a rigorous process where we consider how we invest capital, and that process that we go through analyzes where we think demand is going to be not in the near term, but over the long-term for particular asset. As we're investing in assets look on the small cells side where we're putting assets in at an initial yield of 6% to 7%, we have to depend on account on future lease-up of those assets over a long period of time. And so, we analyzed the opportunity to invest in those assets based on what do we believe the long-term prospects for lease up against those assets will ultimately be. There are plenty of places around the U.S., where I think small cells will be built that our analysis will point to an answer that doesn't make sense for us to invest our capital there. We've tried to allocate our capital to the places that have the highest return and the lowest risk against that potential lease-up. And as we talk about the cohort and look at these market, they have a lot of similar characteristics in terms of what's driving that co-location and obviously given the amount of co-location that we've seen even just as cohorts that we were talking about this morning, have a lot of data around what leads to that co-location. And so we're trying to make sure we allocate capital based on the lessons that we've learned thus far and where we think the future demand is going to be. Now that's going to leave a lot of opportunities for somebody else to build small cells were based on our rigorous analysis, it's just not going to clear our return thresholds. And so, I believe the carriers will build some of that, they may find other third parties to help build some of that. I think in general, we have talked about publicly and I saw a public research report a few weeks ago that pointed to about half of the overall demand for small cells. We've constructed or built that and the other half has been split between other third-parties and the wireless carrier. I think as the market continues to grow, we're not so much focused on what is our percent share of the total market. But how are we doing in the particular markets where we're investing capital or have invested capital and are we seeing co-location that's going to drive long-term yield against those assets over the long-term. So it doesn't concern me in fact, I think it points to the reality that there is going to be a lot of need for these small cells and there are going to be certain locations where it just doesn't hit our return thresholds and therefore, we won't invest capital there. On your second question around the 2022 guidance, I'm going to mostly back off on that, other than to make the point that we tried to make in our prepared remarks. I think - the largest portion of our business is our tower business. We're at an elevated level of activity in calendar year 2021. We think that continues into 2022, and as we assess kind of our long-term target of growing the AFFO per share at 7% to 8%. We feel good about where that target is set. We feel like we'll be able to meet that as we go into 2022, and the specific numbers about where that is and where it lands will get into that next quarter when we give you guidance for 2022.
Operator:
We'll hear next from Phil Cusick with JPMorgan.
Phil Cusick:
Sorry to harp on this. I'm surprised that with all the carrier discussion of macro through the year and the long path the small cells did something happen in 2Q that was a surprise on carrier prioritization to move away from that. Was there a particular event that happened, and the slower small cells trends and what you highlighted as the better return from markets would get both fiber and small cells revenue. Are you more interested in selling fiber to enterprise in the next year?
Jay Brown:
Yes, Phil I think on the first question, we're not surprised by the fact that the carriers would focus on the macro sites first in 5G. And obviously, they have done that in past cycles as we mentioned. I think we were a bit surprised by how quickly it moved, and how they reallocated as quickly as they did. So we got - close to the final stages on a lot of these nodes, and there was a capital allocation decision on their part to invest in the equipment around macro sites over some of these small cells. So again, I mean, we set it a couple of different ways, but we think it's just timing and it doesn't have any impact on the long-term return. So a little bit surprised, but I probably would have said the same answer last year, if you ask me about the macro and tower business a little bit surprised about the how allocated they went towards fiber and small cells. And the movement in any given year in the moment, I guess maybe could surprise us a little bit. The longer term when I look at the underlying returns of the business and the unit economics and where the activity is, I think we're on track for what we overall would have expected. With regards to, are we looking for better returns in the fiber business on the fiber solutions side, obviously, we're looking to grow all the revenue streams. And so to the extent there is an opportunity there that materializes we'll do it and our field sales team I think has done a good job coming out of the pandemic as the economy starts to open back up. We've seen good activity on that front, and they've done a really nice job as companies are starting to return to the office and seeing some opportunities there.
Phil Cusick:
Okay, just a follow-up there. I mean, so you talked about 10,000 this year, you've got a big backlog. How solid is that backlog in terms of timing and size. Is this sort of a goal over a multi-year period?
Jay Brown:
Yes, the backlog is contractually committed, so if we show it to you those are not nodes that we're talking about or having conversations just slowly conversations with the carriers. Those were at the point where they signed contracts with the various wireless operators. The discussions that we have with carriers and the opportunity for nodes would be above and beyond that contracted backlog that we disclosed.
Operator:
We will hear next from David Barden with Bank of America.
David Barden:
I just want to follow-up on Phil's question there. So Jay, you've talked about and also build nodes build being kind of a 24 to 36-month project for new builds and add-ons. So if there is any reason to believe that the small cells business will accelerate in 2023? You would either have to know that or have had visibility on that today in order to be preparing to kind of get that online in 2023. Could you kind of talk a little bit more specifically about the funnel and your conviction thereabout? How did those from 5,000 nodes 37.22 year get back to the 10 or better? And I guess the second piece is on the services side, obviously there is huge level of activity. Could you talk about how you're staffing that from a manpower perspective that in-house is the factual that where the 50 million of higher employment expense going and is that going to stay with the company, as long as this elevated service activity persists? Thanks.
Jay Brown:
On your first question yes, typically our build cycle is about 24 to 36 months. And when you think about where is the, world going, it's an interesting year on the small cells side, as well we're talking about the contraction of how many nodes we're actually going to put on this year. We signed the largest commitment of new nodes in the company's history just a few months ago. So when the carriers think about their deployment plans, not just thinking about them on a 12 or an 18-month cycle. They are thinking about it over a much longer-term basis, so the 15,000 nodes that we've contracted to build just a few months ago, that's in the backlog and we're working with the customers around identifying exactly where those locations are and where they're going to be, and against that backdrop. I think we're still as Dan and I both spoke to, the macro environment is very healthy today for macro towers. But the need for densification remains, and as we look at the 50,000 small cells nodes that we've put in place during 4G and see how those benefited the overall network. We think those dynamics are going to be at play in 5G, if not to a greater degree. And so, the environment and where it goes, I mean, we'll give you guidance on 2022 next quarter and as we get into years beyond that will give more guidance as we get to it. But I think the macro environment would suggest that the fundamental view that we had about the need for small cells complementing the macro sites that provide coverage in the market. Those tenants of our strategy are impact and haven't seen anything that displays us from that longer-term view of where capital allocation will go from the carriers. The way networks will be deployed, and then where good returns will be achieved by balancing the capital investment that we have between both towers and small cells. On your second question around staffing yes, the majority of that cost is coming as we scale up for this elevated level of services and much of that would be outsourced activity and costs in order to perform that work. There are components where we stack up internally, and then we need to scale that based on the level of activity. So if we were to see the revenues from the services business come down then we bring back down the costs associated with it that are scaling up.
Operator:
We'll take our next question from Jonathan Atkin from RBC Capital Markets.
Jonathan Atkin:
Thank you. I'm interested with all the demand kind of leasing demand on macro sites and small cells for that matter as well that from macro from the time being. Is there any I don't know you've kind of long poles in the tent when it comes to possible constraints on the ability to actually deploy the equipment, whether it's your own services division or other contractors that are used to deploy gears. Do they have any implication on your thoughts on book-to-bill as we sort of looking at the second half of the year and next year?
Jay Brown:
Hi Jonathan certainly it's a tight labor market. So it's not without challenge, but we feel good about where we are and the activity that we're seeing on being able to deliver that level of activity, but it's a tight labor market and a challenge, but feel good about where we are in our ability to deliver on the numbers that we put out here.
Jonathan Atkin:
And then I apologize if this was asked earlier, but the source of the upside that you posted kind of how broad based was that. And do you see the kind of the variety of demand increasing as we sort of move into the second half of the year, or is everybody kind of equally active in their various mid-band and 5G deployments at this point?
Jay Brown:
Yes, I would say its broad based across all of the wireless operators. There is a lot of work going on right now. As I mentioned before to upgrade the existing sites and add additional spectrum bands and get new technology onto those legacy macro sites that they were on. So it's broad based across all of the participants in the market. And then we're also seeing as driven by some of the IoT stuff, new entrants into the market that are outside of the four nationwide operators deploying infrastructure in various regions around the country. That's also benefiting macro site.
Jonathan Atkin:
And then finally as it comes to kind of your lease contracts. Is there any constraint the customers have and how they can use the spectrum, whether it's for their own retail operations? Whether they want to lease it to other parties entering to [indiscernible] that type of thing how you - what are some of your exposures there in terms of how the customers can maybe use the spectrum in ways that don't give you the full economics or are you completely kind of immune from those sorts of arrangements?
Jay Brown:
Yes, Jonathan that's been something that we've been careful about since the beginning of the company, where we wanted to make sure there wasn't an opportunity to replace. So our role of being the shared infrastructure provider and so, our leases prohibit network sharing and using the spectrum in a way that would in essence replace our role in the ecosystem. So the carriers as we contract with them, they have the right to use their spectrum for their own use and for their own network. But as we get into things like network sharing that would be a conversation, they would need to have with us and we would - there is a revenue opportunity there. Now obviously we'd be open to having those conversations. So to the extent that there was economic value and return for one of our customers certainly be open to entertaining that conversation. But I think it would come with additional revenues as it's not permitted currently.
Operator:
We'll hear next from Colby Synesael with Cowen and Company. Please go ahead.
Unidentified Analyst:
Hi, this is Michael on for Colby. Two questions if I may. First in the past two quarters, the tower and network services gross margins have been over 30% versus around 15% in 2020. And do you expect to sustain those plus 30% tower network services gross profit margins through year-end. And then second, can you give us a sense of your willingness or openness to sell fiber assets in markets in which you don't expect to build small cells? Thank you.
Daniel Schlanger:
Sure, this is Dan I'll take that first question, on service gross margin. We would anticipate that would continue through the end of the year. The increase in the service gross margin has a lot to do with the mix between which services we're providing. So we have a higher gross margin associated with what we would call pre-construction services around site acquisitions in permitting and getting the site prepared to accept any additional antennas on the tower. And we have a little bit of a lower gross margin associated with the business of actually what we would call installation of putting the antennas on the tower. And right now given where we are in the cycle and how we, all the activity we see there is a lot of that pre-construction services coming through, which is what's driving that incremental the higher service gross margin and we would anticipate that continuing through the end of the year.
Jay Brown:
Michael, on your second question yes so pretty theoretical question given the way that we've analyzed and invested in fiber. We've really focused on the markets that we think have the greatest opportunity for additional small cells, long-term and the wireless demand that was going to be there. So I guess it's in the theoretical if one of those markets were to turn out not to have a need for small cells, I guess we would consider that. But when I look at the portfolio and where we've invested the capital, I think the likelihood of that is probably pretty low.
Operator:
We will hear next from Rick Prentiss with Raymond James.
Rick Prentiss:
Couple of questions, makes sense obviously with the small cells push out and gross discretionary CapEx comes down. What about with your expectations are for prepaid rent received. I think you might have been originally thinking this year, maybe $550 million. So maybe thinking that's maybe more like in the $300 million range as far as we are going to receive?
Jay Brown:
Yes. So going from gross to net Capex is probably the easiest way to do that. We are about - we think that now we're going to be in the neighborhood of $1.3 billion of growth, where we were at about $1.5 billion in our prior expectations. Right now, we think will be around $900 million of net versus in the $1 billion range. And so the prepaid rent received comes down a little bit. But just exactly what you're talking about in line with what we see is the activity levels and where we are in the terms of building out those assets and getting the money back from our customers. So, yes, it's coming down a bit.
Rick Prentiss:
Okay and then the aim is the non-cash amortization of prepaid rent that takes a bit longer probably to change that needle. Are we still thinking maybe up year-over-year from 2020 to 2021 maybe in the $550 million range, is that kind of a fair level?
Jay Brown:
Yes, we think that yes. That's all very fair what you just said. And so we think the growth in our prepaid amortization it's going to be about $40 million in total, going from 2020 to 2021.
Rick Prentiss:c:
Jay Brown:
Yes, I'll speak more generically just with DISH, as we sign new leases, we will have additional straight line as we recognize the escalators over those leases on a ratable basis, as opposed to as they actually come into escalate. So we kind of straight line everything as opposed to put those escalators in place over time. And that causes that straight line revenue to come in and it is associated with leases. And as we discussed in the DISH - contract specifically, in order to get to that treatment, we need to have a lease, which means we actually need to go put equipment onto a site. So the timing of that will be more associated with DISH going on to site as opposed to when we would sign a lease specifically. So we got to - or sign an application or get an application start is when we actually get it on air and starting billing is when that straight line will come in. So you will see increases of that as we see more from DISH, but I won't speak specifically - when we expect the DISH work to come. We have said that there is a pretty limited amount of that DISH work in our 2021 guidance that's been true since we gave guidance last October. We still see a limited amount of it in 2021 and we'll speak more 2022 activity in October.
Rick Prentiss:
Okay. And last one from me is augmentation CapEx for towers has been kind of coming down, but you've talked a couple of times about carriers going back to their existing locations first pretty more antennas and radios out there. Should we expect to acceleration of augmentation spending at the towers as we look into the future versus what we've seen in the last three quarters?
Jay Brown:
Yes, not necessarily. That based on how much we have to modify the towers in order to accept the additional weight and wind loading of additional equipment. And what we've seen is as we have more based on the towers that don't require modification that is driven that number down. So, yet another reason the tower business is one of the best businesses ever, is we get to add all of those revenues without having to add capital to make it happen. And that's just a function of the business itself and the towers that we own.
Rick Prentiss:
Best business ever, I guess I'd also putting up mid-band spectrum also probably smaller antenna size helps with that item?
Jay Brown:
I wouldn't go specifically with antenna band we would talk through. I would just say that, like I said, there is additional capacity that we have on our towers and we're utilizing that capacity and not having to spend money in order to add additional equipment.
Operator:
We'll hear next from Jeff Kvaal with Wolfe Research.
Jeff Kvaal:
Yes, thank you very much for the question. I guess my first question is, I understand that you don't want to tell us too much about 2022, which makes a lot of sense, and we'll hear from that in a bit. I am wondering though if you can perhaps give us a flavor of how long we should expect this elevated activity to last when it might translate into revenues and then how long those revenues might persist for you all of that elevated level of new leases you persist, maybe that comparing to prior cycles, would be a vehicle for doing that?
Daniel Schlanger:
Yes, Jeff good morning. I think I'm going to be careful because I don't want to get too far into really giving specific guidance around 2022. But the tone and the activity would suggest that this elevated level of activity that we're seeing currently is going to continue into 2022. We have not spoken about what we think it will continue - whether or not it will continue beyond 2022. I think big picture, if you look at the last decade, two decades of activity is, there is a baseline level of activity that we have seen consistently in and out of cycles. The deployment of new technologies that in many ways is almost like maintenance CapEx of the carriers continually invest in their asset and that drives our topline. Our top line revenue growth number from new organic leasing activity and that has happened at the beginning of cycles, middle and towards the end of technology cycle. And I think that will continue. It underlines our long-term forecast of believing that we can grow the dividend 7% to 8% per year on a compounded annual basis for a long period of time. And everything we see in the environment today as 5G is getting deployed suggest that that long-term view is intact and we feel really good about it. So how long it will last. We'll just have to wait and see. As we get into 2022, we'll start to give you a view for 2023 at that point, but elevated levels certainly this year and next year compared to what we've seen over the last three to five years.
Jeff Kvaal:
Okay, that makes sense. So I guess now I won't ask when small cells might inflect as a result. So maybe instead, could I ask you, do you think the elevated levels are correlated more with the transition to a new generation of technology or more towards the addition of incremental spectrum, which may or may not align with technology migration?
Jay Brown:
Historically it's been a combination of both. The best times to be in the infrastructure business over our history have been times in the carriers had a combination of new spectrum that they had, they have gained either through acquisitions or through auctions at the FCC. New technology changes and enough cash flow or cash on hand, on the balance sheet to be able to deploy that and we're sitting at a period of time where those factors, all three of those factors are true. They have fallow spectrum that needs to be deployed, they're engaging in new technologies that are going to lower their overall costs and bring more products to us as consumers, and at the same time they have sufficient cash flows to pay for those deployment. So that's the - those are the best of days to be in the infrastructure business. And we have multiple well capitalized carriers who are in exactly that position with spectrum, technology and an ability to deploy it and I think that points to why we're seeing these elevated level. You paused on your second question, and I would just circle back. I think it's a fair question to ask around what is the timing of activity in the business. And one of the things that has held true for me a truism about this industry is that you just can't predict with a lot of precision exactly when activity on a particular asset is going to see, is going to see that lease-up activity. We often cloak with - we talk about the fact that a tower adds about one tenant every 10 years. Well, in reality, that means that that one - one theoretical tower as a tenant in a year and the other nine years it doesn't add a tenant. And so looking at any short period of time can really mask what happens over a long period of time. The assets that we own whether it's fiber or towers are located in places that we believe there is going to be a lot of need for the upgrade, both for densification and for coverage reasons. And these new technologies are driving the demand on those assets. And if we look out rather than looking at kind of a shorter period of time of a one or a two-year period of time and look out over 10 years or 20 years, ultimately that's how we achieve our returns, it's stacking years upon years of good growth consistent growth in that 7% to 8% that drive towards a larger overall total return and yield across all of the assets. And the portfolio nature of the assets, means that in certain markets we'll see activity in certain assets we'll see activity in a given year. And the next year the activity and the capital will flow towards different markets and different assets and over a long period of time the whole portfolio gets the uplift that we see, that I pointed to there. I think it was on Slide 4, around the uplift in towers over a long period of time. That's the portfolio effect, but if you were to graph any one tower it will be a lot choppier than the smoothness that we seeded on Page 4.
Jeff Kvaal:
Thank you for the comprehensive answer.
Jay Brown:
You bet. Maybe we have time to take one more question this morning.
Operator:
We'll take our final question from Batya Levi with UBS.
Batya Levi:
Two quick questions, one could you talk a little bit about the fiber trends and what drove the sequential decline this quarter. And second question on the AT&T DISH wholesale deal. How should we think about that in terms of the impact on overall activity that you were expecting from DISH? Is there anything you could say about the minimum requirements that, that's maybe in the backlog right now? Thank you.
Jay Brown:
Sure, on the first question, we've guided towards fiber solutions the growth this year of being about 3% year-over-year. I think in the first quarter we were up a little bit higher than what we saw in the second quarter. I think that's just timing and wouldn't point to anything that fundamentally going on in the business. I think for calendar year calendar year 2021, we would expect by the time we're done, the growth rate will be about 3% year-over-year and anything you're seeing in the quarter-to-quarter changes that will be just timing differences and not indicative of anything fundamentally in the business. On your second question, I'll let DISH really speak to the value and benefit of what they've recently announced. So I don't know that I have a lot of comments there, obviously we have a big commitment from them, and we've got a lot of activity ongoing working to get their network up and built. And appreciate the trust and commitment that they've made to us and are excited to deliver what they've committed to us and we've committed to them to get on air for them as quickly as we can. So we're working hard towards that end, and I'll let them speak to the other components of their relationship.
Batya Levi:
Okay thanks.
Jay Brown:
Thanks everyone for joining us this morning, and we'll look forward to catching up with you soon. And a special thank you to all of our employees. The 12% year-over-year AFFO growth is not done without a lot of hard work from a lot of folks and navigating through this pandemic and working in settings and in ways that were much different than our historical approach. Our team has really done a terrific job, though I know many of them are listening this morning, just wanted to say thank you as we close out. Thanks for all you've done and look forward to the balance of the year.
Operator:
Thank you. And that does conclude today's conference. We do thank you all for your participation. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Good day, everyone, and welcome to the Crown Castle Q1 2021 Earnings Call. Today's call is being recorded. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Ben Lowe. Please go ahead.
Benjamin Lowe:
Great, thank you, Vicki, and good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us today as we discuss our first quarter 2021 results. With me on the call this morning are Jay Brown, Crown Castle's Chief Executive Officer; and Dan Schlanger, Crown Castle's Chief Financial Officer.
Jay Brown:
Thanks, Ben, and good morning, everyone. Thanks for joining us on the call. As you saw from our first quarter results and increased full-year outlook, our consistent execution is delivering outstanding results as we support our customers' growth initiatives with their deployment of nationwide 5G in the U.S. Following a period of building excitement and anticipation, we have seen a significant increase in activity as our customers have started to upgrade their networks to 5G at scale. We expect this elevated level of activity to result in a year of outsized growth for Crown Castle as we now anticipate 11% growth in AFFO per share for the full-year 2021, meaningfully above our long-term annual target of 7% to 8%. Beyond 2021, I believe our strategy and unmatched portfolio of more than 40,000 towers, approximately 80,000 small cells on air or committed in backlog and 80,000 route miles of fiber concentrated in the top U.S. markets have positioned Crown Castle to generate growth in cash flows and dividends per share for years to come. Our strategy is to deliver the highest risk-adjusted returns for our shareholders by growing our dividend and investing in assets that will drive future growth. That focus has led us to invest in towers, small cells and fiber assets that are all foundational for the development of 5G networks in the U.S. We believe the series of strategic agreements that we have announced in recent months further highlights the synergistic value our shared infrastructure provides to our customers.
Daniel Schlanger:
Thanks, Jay. Good morning, everyone. As Jay mentioned, we are excited to see our customers beginning to deploy 5G at scale. We have seen a significant increase in activity levels, leading to solid first quarter results that exceeded our expectations and support our increased full-year guidance. Turning to Slide 4 of our earnings presentation, you can see our strong top line results were driven by more than 6% growth and organic contribution to site rental revenue. This growth included more than 9% growth from new leasing activity and contracted escalators, net of approximately 3% from non-renewals. We also generated a $23 million increase in contribution from services when compared to the first quarter of 2020, culminating in 10% growth in adjusted EBITDA and 20% growth in AFFO per share on a year-over-year basis. Turning to Slide 5, we increased our full-year AFFO guidance by $40 million, reflecting a $25 million increase in expected services contribution as a result of higher-than-expected tower activity levels, and a $30 million reduction to interest expense following our successful recent refinancing activities, partially offset by $15 million of additional labor-related costs associated with the higher activity levels. Additionally, as Jay discussed, we entered into a long-term tower leasing agreement with Verizon that resulted in increasing the average current lease term of our Verizon tower site leases to approximately 10-years and adding straight-line revenue of approximately $140 million in 2021. Taking these changes into account, we now expect our adjusted EBITDA to be $150 million higher than our previously provided 2021 outlook. Our expectation for site rental revenue growth has increased to approximately 7%, inclusive of the expected organic contribution to site rental revenues of 6%, which remains unchanged. Our expectation for organic growth across towers, small cells and fiber solutions also remain consistent, with approximately 6% growth from towers, approximately 15% growth from small cells and approximately 3% growth from fiber solutions. Focusing on investment activities, during the first quarter, capital expenditures totaled $302 million, including $17 million of sustaining capital expenditures, $49 million of discretionary capital expenditures for our tower segment and $225 million of discretionary capital expenditures for our fiber segment. Our full-year expectation for capital expenditures remains unchanged at approximately $1.5 billion or less than $1 billion after customer cash flow contributions. And we continue to expect to fund our discretionary investments this year with free cash flow and incremental borrowings.
Operator:
Thank you. And we will take our first question today from Simon Flannery with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.
Simon Flannery:
Great, thank you very much. Thanks for all the color. Jay, perhaps you could just dive into the services business. What are you seeing going on there that led you to increase the guidance and then how you see that translating time-wise into higher leasing trends and any comments on the U.S. M&A environment? Thanks.
Jay Brown:
Good morning Simon, we are obviously very encouraged by the activity that we are seeing among the carriers. We are not surprised by the urgency that our customers are showing in deploying 5G. The level of commitment that they showed during the C-band auction was really a clear sign that they are going to invest heavily in 5G. And so the activity we are seeing, I think, just flows from that. We are seeing that turn into actions as they are deploying significant amounts of 5G networks. And we are really encouraged by the activity that we are seeing. When we think about that activity translating towards revenue growth, we obviously saw a big step up towards the end of last year and that has continued into this first quarter and as it relates to the services activity, obviously, most of that activity is either in the nature of preconstruction work that we are doing for carriers and then some portion of it carries over to work that we are doing as we actually install them on the site. So the elevated activity that we saw, the step-up we think sort of continues through the balance of this year and is a direct result of the overall encouraging level of activity that we are seeing from the carriers.
Daniel Schlanger:
Yes. And the second part was just on the M&A environment in the U.S. I think what we are seeing across the board, Simon, I think you understand, is that there is a lot of money that is interested in infrastructure right now and that is reflecting itself in the M&A environment, both for towers and for fiber assets. What we have been focused on and been clear about is that we think that there is not a lot of the of additional M&A we are going to pursue in the U.S. for fiber. We think most of those assets that we wanted, we have purchased. There may be some others out there that meet the criteria we have looked at, being high-capacity dense metro fiber, but not a lot. So we anticipate most of our capital will go to organic growth in our business, but also in fiber business.
Simon Flannery:
Okay. Thank you.
Operator:
We will now go to Michael Rollins with Citi.
Michael Rollins:
Thanks, good morning. Curious, first, just to start with the Verizon agreement and extension. Can you frame the types of activities and upgrades that Verizon's committed to within this agreement and extension and what might be opportunities that fall outside the scope of this agreement. Just to think about what is kind of predetermined versus what other activities you could pursue with Verizon to further grow your revenue overtime. And then just a quick follow-up, on the net debt leverage, can you just give us an update on what the target range is and to the extent that the leverage, I think, in the deck ended at 5.5 times in the first quarter, just how you see that progressing over the next couple of years? Thanks.
Jay Brown:
Sure, Mike good morning. Obviously, we are really excited about the Verizon agreement that we announced on the tower side. I think it provides significant value and certainty to Verizon as well as to ourselves and I think the significance of that agreement is obviously evidenced by the impact that it has on our 2021 outlook and the step-up that we have put into that outlook last night in the press release. This really went through the same thought process that we have gone through over the last several years as we have done large transactions with the carriers on the MLA side, and have similar components to it, we are trying to meet the customers' needs, particularly with regards to certainty of price and then lowering or reducing the amount of time that it takes to go through the paper portion of getting them on to our site. So it is designed to facilitate their ability to go back to sites that they are already on and speed up that process of them being able to do upgrades. And obviously, they have been specific about the desire to do that with regards to C-band. And then on our side of it, we are trying to make sure that we price the economics of that transaction appropriately. And I think we have seen over multiple of those kinds of transactions with customers, multiple customers and multiple transactions overtime, an ability to do that well, to both get the right economics on the site and then provide our customers with the right access and speed to get there. So we did something similar and has a lot of components to things that we have done in the past and thought about it in a similar way. We get the 10-year extension on the leases that they are already on which moves the maturity out from about four-years to about 10-years on those sites. And then over the next several years, gives them an opportunity on those sites that they are already on to upgrade their equipment to handle new spectrum bands and to get that where they want it to be from a 5G standpoint. We still maintain the upside on new leasing and other activities associated with that. And then once we get past sort of this initial push into 5G, then obviously the opportunity is there for us to see greater growth overtime. So excited about the agreement there and excited about what it means in terms of total activity. And as I said before in the prepared remarks, I think right on the doorsteps of seeing 5G deployments at scale enables us to be able to be responsive to Verizon's desires to get there.
Daniel Schlanger:
And Mike, it is Dan, I will take the second question on leverage. Our target still remains four to five times. We believe we will stay in that five times as we continue to invest in our small cell and fiber business, which should be for several years. We are, as you pointed out, at 5.5 times at the end of Q1. We believe that with the growth in EBITDA that we see coming through the rest of the year that we will end the year close to that five times, maybe slightly above it, but pretty close to that five times debt leverage target. And feel really good about that position we are in, because we are able to invest in the growth of our business while relying on cash flows and incremental borrowing capacity and not equity to fund that growth.
Michael Rollins:
Thanks.
Operator:
We will take the next question from Matthew Niknam with Deutsche Bank.
Matthew Niknam:
Hey guys, thank you for taking the questions. One on small cells and then one on services. On the small cell side, revenues were flat sequentially. I think year-on-year growth slowed into the high single-digits. So can you give any color in terms of the drivers there and then how we should think about the outlook for the rest of the year if you are reiterating the 15% growth guide? And then on services, if you can give any more color in terms of what drove the strength in margins this quarter. And I'm just trying to get a sense of what the cadence for services contribution will look like in the next couple of quarters over the course of the year. Thanks.
Jay Brown:
Sure, good morning. On small cells, I would point to, as we have tried to do in our outlook, look at the full-year. So a little bit of timing changes kind of - which is naturally going to happen as we go through the construction phase of small cells, it is going to have some quarter-to-quarter movements that may not tie out exactly to the full-year outlook. But as we look at the full-year outlook, still think small cell growth year-over-year is in the 15% range, that mid-teens that we have talked about for a long time. We think on the fiber solutions side will be around 3% for the full-year and then towers right there at around 6%, as we previously expected. So I don't see anything, Matt, in terms of those numbers in the quarter that are indicative of anything happening in the underlying business that I would point to. I think it is just the timing differences quarter-to-quarter. And as we look at the full-year, I think that is more indicative of the actual activity, what we are seeing from the carriers and how we expect those businesses to perform. On the services side and the cadence there, look, we are at a level of elevated activity. So we probably had a better first quarter in terms of services than we would in many years, where we often talk about years being back - heavily back-end loaded to the second half or even towards the fourth quarter. And we saw a step-up in activity going into the end of last year. And that level of elevated activity just carried right into the first quarter. So we saw a real nice contribution from services in the first quarter and expect basically our full-year assumption to be pretty similar to where we were previously with that adjustment for the first quarter.
Daniel Schlanger:
Yes. Matt, it is Dan. Just on the question on margins specifically. It is the mix of business Jay talked about earlier, having a mix between preconstruction and construction as part of our services business. The preconstruction is a little bit higher margin, and that is what we had a little bit higher mix of within the quarter, and that drove the higher overall margin.
Matthew Niknam:
Great, thanks guys.
Operator:
And we will go to Colby Synesael with Cowen.
Colby Synesael:
Great thank you. You know you spoke pretty bullishly about what you are seeing from an activity perspective. But it is, I guess, a little surprising then that you didn't raise your organic tower growth. And given that you gave your guidance all the way back in October of 2020, were you already seeing or had the conviction that you would see this acceleration in demand and therefore it is already built into the guidance? It just seems like given how early you gave your guidance and how quickly the demand has kind of ramped that you wouldn't have necessarily included that. And then secondly, as it relates to the Verizon MLA, you talked about making it easier to deploy. And I guess one of the bigger questions people are trying to get a sense, that investors are trying to get a sense on, is whether or not the agreement includes just some standardized pricing to make it easier for them to move quicker or whether or not there is actually some type of financial benefit where you allow them to go to X amount of sites over X amount of period, shorter than that 10-year period, to kind of move quickly. And if that is the case, I would assume that there is some type of cash benefit, yet we didn't really see the AFFO change for that in particular. So again, any color you can give on that would be helpful. Thank you.
Jay Brown:
Sure, good morning Colby, thanks for the questions. On the first question around organic tower growth, a couple of things I would put in front of you on that. One is there is a pretty good lead time or lag time from the time that we see revenue start to turn on, start to get the applications from the customers to when we actually see the revenues start to turn on that is about six to nine months. So the increased level of activity that we have been talking about for 2021 is something we did see all the way back into the fourth quarter of 2020. We started to see the application step up then, and that informed our increase in the overall activity. I was sort of curious to this point the other day and just look back to kind of our organic revenue growth over the last 2017 through 2020. And the organic revenue growth in 2021 is in our outlook is a step-up of a little over 25% of that average over those previous 4 years. So it is a meaningful increase in the activity, and we bake that into our outlook when we gave 2021. So what we are seeing now in terms of that activity is pretty consistent with what we had expected. But it is always good to see it materialized and then not just the expectations as where we were back in the October time frame. The other thing that I would mention about this is, as we look at this activity, we are encouraged and think that there is the opportunity for it to stay at this level of elevated activity for a period of time. So I think in the business, oftentimes people start to look for inflection points or points where it is going to be the highest and then expect it to kind of fall off. And our prior experience would tell us that those inflection points are relatively rare, that you see the carrier step up level of activities and hold at a plus or minus a certain amount for a long period of time. So when we look at that activity, really encouraged by what we are seeing and, frankly, not surprised. To the broader point on, as we look at revenue growth and activity, the way that we create value for shareholders is by stacking years of good growth one on top of another. And what is happening in the business right now is a tremendous year of growth, of growing that AFFO at 11% year-over-year on a per share basis and just stacking another year of great growth on top of what was a good base. And our goal is to consistently deliver that growth, like we have talked about over the long-term, 7% to 8%. And what we are seeing at the top line certainly indicates our ability to achieve that longer-term goal. On your second question around the Verizon MLA, we try to stay away from getting too specific about the terms of the agreement that we do with our customers. We will let them speak to how they think about their deployment plans and why they structured certain agreements with us. But I would tell you that there are components of both parts of your question in the agreement. It certainly does include certainty of pricing for them and if - depending on levels of activity, then it will drive an answer for us in terms of top line growth over a long period of time. So it does provide pricing with them. And then there is also a component of committed activity that is in it where we have certainty of some revenues associated with activity as they deploy C-band over the next several years. So there is components of both of those in the agreement. And as we go forward, we will see more consolidated, rather than specific to a customer relationship, the contribution of cash revenues beyond what Dan spoke to in terms of the impact of the GAAP financial statements this year and years to come.
Colby Synesael:
Yes, presumably, the reason then that the AFFO is not benefiting from that committed activity then is that it is not actually starting necessarily in 2021, but it is on future point. Is that fair?
Jay Brown:
No, I don't think that is fair. I think I would look at some of the activity that we would have assumed would occur in 2021 when we gave the outlook would be associated with all of our customers. So some component of that activity was already embedded in our guidance and maybe it is under a different construct now as a result of this agreement. But wouldn't necessarily change our view of activity for the year and, therefore, the cash flow -.
Daniel Schlanger:
Colby, it is Dan. The only thing I would add to that is I just want to put a little bit of context around it that our growth in the tower business of around 6% is double that where our closest peers have guided to for 2021. So we feel really good about that. And this deal that we signed with Verizon, the one we signed with DISH, all went into our understanding of what was going to drive that 6% growth that it is almost double what our peers are seeing. So I think looking for us to increase above what is already a really good number probably is too much than can happen, as Jay pointed, in any one year for the tower business. And we are just excited that we are able to provide as much growth as we are right now and driving the type of returns that we are for our shareholders.
Colby Synesael:
Got it. Thank you.
Operator:
Next is Phil Cusick with JPMorgan.
Philip Cusick:
Hey guys, thanks. First, Jay, to your comment on leverage remaining at five times, should we expect accelerating CapEx next year to keep that leverage at five times? Because it seems otherwise it would be falling below that pretty quickly. And then second, DISH announced yesterday it will be using the AWS Cloud, not a big surprise. But can you give us thoughts on how that may impact Crown overtime on site leasing revenue as well as any impact on the opportunity in edge computing. Thanks.
Jay Brown:
Yes, Phil, thanks for the questions. Around CapEx, we spent some time, I think, over the last couple of quarters talking about our expectation for this year's CapEx, which on a net basis is down about $400 million from the levels that we saw in 2019. That was largely related to the fiber acquisitions that we made. Those companies had committed to a number of large enterprise and government build-outs that were built specifically for kind of those kind of activities, enterprise and government broadband services. And post those acquisitions, we just haven't signed up those kind of agreements at any kind of scale like those prior companies had done. And as a result of that and our strategic focus around small cells, the CapEx has come down as we have built out those really long lead-time contracts. Many times, they were three to five-years of build-out and commitment. So those have basically rolled off. And now as we think about capital spending, it is strategically focused on what we believe is the long-term value driver of the business around small cells and the opportunity to kind of build these networks for carriers as they build 5G networks. I don't want to get too much into what we think in 2022 and beyond. We have given guidance this year that our net CapEx will be a little less than $1 billion. For the longer term, the driver of CapEx will be what are the opportunities mostly around small cells. And those will go through the same rigorous process that we put all of our CapEx processes through, understanding what the return is. We look to see at 6% to 7% initial yield on invested capital. And then we want to make sure that we believe there is good opportunity for additional lease-up beyond that, that can drive that yield into the double digits and higher returns on capital over time as we see more lease-up. So in the future, We will just have to evaluate what the opportunities are, and then We will give you an update on CapEx as we get later in the year. In October, we would plan to give our 2022 outlook as we typically do. With regards to DISH, I will probably beg off most of that and let DISH and Amazon speak to how their agreements between the two of them are going to drive activity. But obviously, DISH has made a significant commitment to us recently in terms of the deployment of their network, and our operating team is incredibly busy and focused on delivering for them based on their expectations. The team has done a great job out of the gate and I believe delivering for them what they had hoped. And we are ready to support DISH in any way possible as they work on building out their 5G network. Your last question around edge computing, we think, today, a lot of the edge computing activity is around traffic management and potentially reducing costs. But as wireless networks move into 5G, I think the opportunity is going to expand well beyond that to really delivering solutions to customers and increasing the applications as innovation occurs. And we think tower sites are uniquely positioned to be able to provide the real estate, the connectivity as well as power that enables edge computing. So it is a foundation of long-term innovation and our combination with fiber, I think really uniquely position us to be able to capture that. I know we have highlighted that component of both fiber and towers in the DISH agreement. It was something that was really important to them as they designed and decided to anchor their network around our sites. And I think it is another example of kind of the combination of our assets sets us up for opportunities for growth that are frankly beyond what we put into our forecast. When we talk about being able to grow the dividend 7% to 8% over a long period of time, things like edge computing and CBRS are really not in our forecast. So we view that as unmodeled upside and opportunity and believe the type of assets acquired and where those assets are located really give us the optionality to benefit from that over the long-term.
Philip Cusick:
Thanks guys.
Operator:
We will now go to Jon Atkin with RBC.
Jonathan Atkin:
Thanks very much. Question just on balance sheet, any kind of thoughts on additional debt refi activities that you would contemplate? And then on the small cells, it does seem, as I think you alluded to in the script and elsewhere, that you have some structural advantages as we get to the infill and densification part of C-band and other mid-band frequencies. I just wondered if you are starting to see that in the pipeline yet. I realize the revenues might be a little ways off, but are there active discussions at this point or is that more on the come? And then finally, one of the C-band licensees talked earlier this morning about supply chain constraints that they are seeing. On the other hand, another one put out a press release talking about how second quarter they are already kind of starting to deploy C-band. And as you kind of consider all those data points around what the carriers are saying, I wondered how that affects your expectation around second half and what type of ramp you might see. Thank you.
Daniel Schlanger:
Sure, Jon. I will take the first one on the balance sheet on debt refinancing activities. We are always looking at our balance sheet to identify opportunities for us to, as we mentioned in the script, reduce our borrowing costs, extend our maturities. We won't get specifically into what we are going to do right now, but the interest rate environment does remain attractive, and We will continue to look at that versus whatever the economic trade is and the early premium we would have to pay to take out any of that future debt. That is just part of our normal ongoing everyday operations within our finance department. We will find out what we are going to do or we will figure out what we will do over time and let everybody know when it happens.
Jay Brown:
On your second question around small cells, we believe that we do have a structural advantage around the assets that we have acquired, as Dan mentioned in his earlier comments. We were intentional about acquiring high-capacity dense, urban, fiber. And as we have seen kind of in the later stages of 4G and now as we enter into 5G, there is a disproportionate amount of traffic in dense urban and suburban areas in the United States. And in order to solve that increased traffic, small cells are absolutely necessary. They are a critical component of their network. And I think the locations that we have acquired fiber in and where we have built fiber and then where we started to build small cells sets us up really nicely as we get into 5G and we start to see network densification. And that fiber that we have existing, I think we will see additional co-location on, driving up the yields and the returns of those assets. And as has happened in prior cycles of going from 2G to 2.5G and then to 3G and then to 4G and now into 5G, we would expect there will be innovation that will further drive demand, wireless traffic demand. And that increased traffic, again, nears to kind of the benefit of those assets. So we think we have got great assets in the right location and think that we are going to see a really strong tailwind in the business over a long period of time. And you are right to point out the impact directly to site rental revenues is not going to happen overnight. It will happen overtime. But the conversations and the discussions that we are having with carriers and the activity, and I would point to the Verizon commitment of 15,000 small cells that we talked about in the last quarter, those are all early indications that these assets are of the critical nature necessary to deploy wireless carrier networks, and we are really excited about where we are positioned. On your last question around C-band spectrum and constraints and supply chain, et cetera, we haven't seen anything at this point that would suggest to us that the numbers that we have out there are not going to be achievable. If we start to see something, obviously, we will update you on our expectations. But normally in the business, sort of the quarter-to-quarter changes and timing are not that impactful to our overall results, as I spoke to earlier, in terms of the lead time and the commitment of revenues. We have a pretty long lead time. So we have a lot of visibility into what we will do in 2021 and feel good about where the forecast is. And if that changes, we will update you. But I think the supply chains will resolve themselves over time and don't expect that to have an impact in terms of our growth.
Jonathan Atkin:
Thank you for that and just a quick follow-up. So last September, we had American Tower announced their MLA with T-Mobile. And philosophically, can you maybe just remind us how you might want to think about that structure of agreement or any kind of an MLA that would address the Sprint and T-Mobile churn. I appreciate that you put out the kind of the expiration schedule in the supplement, which is quite helpful but any thoughts philosophically on willingness to enter into some sort of an MLA that captures all of that?
Jay Brown:
Sure. Thanks for mentioning the disclosure. We did add some additional disclosure to the supplement. We have gotten some questions, we thought it would be helpful to give you a little more granularity. It is not intended to be a forecast. So what is in the supplement is not our forecast of actual churn, but just the actual numbers so you can separate locations where the legacy Sprint and T-Mobile were on the same sites and sites where legacy Sprint was stand-alone on the site and not co-located with T-Mobile. We are always open to considering a new structure or an agreement with a customer, but there is not any need per se to do that. We were intentional a number of years ago about extending the terms. So if you look back in that disclosure, we have got a lot of term remaining on those leases. And it is provided a lot of - which was the goal when we did it, extending those Sprint leases, we were trying to make sure that we had a lot of flexibility through the - if there was consolidation. So pleased about where we are there. And I would look at what we have been historically. We are always open, as I mentioned earlier, of working with the carriers to help them facilitate what they need. And whether that is achieving synergies or increasing speed of deployment of network, we are happy to work with carriers on that basis and, at the same time, making sure we maintain and protect the economics of both the agreements that we have in place as well as the economics of the site and driving the right return on the asset. So we will hold that in balance as we usually do and make sure we do the right thing for both shareholders and for our customers. I would just point out this, which I think is helpful as we think about entering 2023 and beyond, the next big date of 2028, where we have some exposure to leases potentially being terminated from the T-Mobile acquisition. In past carrier consolidation, we have been able to grow AFFO and dividend right through those periods of time. And the other reality is that consolidations have actually led to increased spending. So we had this view for a long period of time that, ultimately, the combination of T-Mobile and Sprint will be a good thing for the tower industry and, net-net, will end up with more activity and more leasing than we would have otherwise. And so I certainly expect that at some point in time we will see some benefit to T-Mobile of some synergies of taking down some sites. But I think the overall investment and activity that they will do in with regards to 5G will far exceed the deducts that we may see from synergies that they try to achieve in taking down some sites. So net-net, back to the earlier comments, feel really good about the activity we are going to see in 5G. And we will work through the consolidation when the time comes several years from now.
Jonathan Atkin:
Thanks Jay.
Jay Brown:
Thank you.
Operator:
We will take our next question from Rick Prentiss with Raymond James.
Richard Prentiss:
Good morning guys and congrats to Baylor on the NCAA tournament.
Jay Brown:
Good morning Rick, how are you doing? That was a lot of fun.
Richard Prentiss:
That was great. And thanks for the supplement on Sprint, that was helpful as well. I want to follow up on something Nick asked you about the pacing. Are we looking still at about 50,000 small cell nodes on air at 1Q? And are you still thinking kind of 10,000 a year is a good pacing number for us to look at over the next couple of years?
Jay Brown:
We do. We think that the activity - we think, will end this year with about 60,000, give or take, nodes on air. And I think that is a pretty good forecast for the time going forward. As we look out over a longer period of time, I think that the demand for small cells is going to be well in excess of what we have seen thus far. So I think our view would be, over a longer period of time, that, that activity will increase beyond those levels. But in the near-term, I think that, that is a pretty good gauge. The carriers and the activity and the discussions and their public comments around the necessity of small cells I think really sets the environment for the opportunity for us to capture a larger portion of it. But as you know, there is a long lead time for that. So we get lots of visibility as we go from commitments of the carriers to go on certain sites to when we are actually turning them on. So as we go through the process, certainly update you on our view.
Daniel Schlanger:
And Rick, it is Dan. Let me just add one thing to that. We get a lot of questions around why 10,000, is there some sort of structural cap to how many we can put on air. And I would just like to just be clear, the 10,000 is just a result of the bookings we have and the time it takes to get those bookings on here, which is typically between 18-months and 36-months. We don't see the 18-months to 36-months changing all that much. But if we got a lot more bookings, we could put a lot more on air than just 10,000 in a year. So 10,000 is a good point to look at for the next few years or next couple of years because of where we are with the bookings that we have had recently. But as Jay pointed out, there is nothing that would stop us with greater bookings to speed up that deployment, and we would anticipate that to be the case as the necessity of small cells continues to get clearer for the deployment of 5G and networks overall.
Richard Prentiss:
Makes sense, it is the nice thing about a visible business. Anything (inaudible) the Verizon contract as far as putting that on to a time line? I know you had the 15,000, but it was kind of uncertain time, I think.
Jay Brown:
No, nothing more specific than what we have previously mentioned.
Richard Prentiss:
Okay. And then on fiber, 3% net growth. Can you help us understand how is that business doing gross- and churn- wise? Is it still kind of close to double-digit churn and better than double-digit gross?
Jay Brown:
Yes. We are still churn is around 9% and then to top growth would be in the 12% plus range, netting to that 3% that we expect for full-year 2021.
Richard Prentiss:
Okay. Last one for me, Jay. You have talked about it a couple of times, about CBRS. What do you think the opportunities in CBRS will be that you are not in guidance yet it sounded like? Is it increased tower to put it on towers? Is it in building systems that you would like to get involved with? Help us understand a little bit about where you see opportunity might be coming to CBRS?
Jay Brown:
Yes. I think it is all of the above. I think there is opportunity in building that we have seen and we will see. We have done a number of trials on that front and with some success. So I think there is an opportunity to expand the density of the network for the wireless carriers into buildings to reach places that are very difficult to do from the outside. So I think there is opportunities there. I think there is also going to be some opportunities in the macro environment in certain settings where CBRS may be used by a content provider or others who want access to spectrum. So being able to use some of the unlicensed spectrum components of CBRS is an opportunity to do that in more macro environment. I think there are probably also some opportunities around campus-specific activities, whether that is universities or other locations where someone controls a large portion of land and has a discrete user use for CBRS that could be interesting as a share provider. So I think there are a number of opportunities. And it is not in guidance yet because it is not large enough to be beyond a rounding here. But I certainly think, overtime as we see 5G develop, the need for this to be for wireless opportunities to be ubiquitous, I think will drive uses for CBRS. And I think the other component of it is, obviously, everyone is trying to figure out how to get more spectrum into the hands of the wireless operators, and CBRS is another way to do that. And I think that spectrum will be utilized overtime and I think we stand to benefit from that as that spectrum is deployed.
Richard Prentiss:
Excellent. Let's see if the FCC put more spectrum options on the block, too.
Jay Brown:
Agree.
Richard Prentiss:
Stay well guys.
Jay Brown:
Thanks Rick.
Daniel Schlanger:
Thanks Rick.
Operator:
We will take the next question from Nick Del Deo with MoffettNathanson.
Nicholas Del Deoss:
Hey good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. First, I noticed that both the number of ground leases extended and the number of ground leases acquired in the quarter were probably the lowest in many years and they have been trending down for some time. So I was wondering if you could just talk a bit about the state of the market for land acquisitions and extensions and how much headroom you think you have left to push on that front.
Jay Brown:
Sure good morning Nick. This has been a focus of ours for about 15, 18-years, something like that, where we have been specifically focused on extending the maturity of our ground leases. When we started that activity, I think we were in the neighborhood of about 17 or 18-years of remaining term on average. And we had in the neighborhood of about 20% or a little less than 20% of the land that was owned. And over the last 15 to 18-years, we have increased the percentage of land owned to about a third, a little over third of our overall ground leases. And in addition to that, we have taken the average maturity to longer than 30-years. So there is been a concerted effort for us to get well ahead of any date at which a landlord would have a termination right or gain leverage from a financial standpoint over what those extension terms would be. And the team has just done a phenomenal job over a long period of time of consistently improving the quality of the assets and reducing the risks, albeit relatively small in an individual tower basis. Cumulatively, I think I would put that in the category, as Dan was talking about, balance sheet risk. That is another risk that we have methodically eliminated in the business and really excited about where we are today. It is an ongoing activity. As long as we are in the business, we are going to continue to be there. So we are constantly working on buying out land that makes sense, that we can acquire at the appropriate multiple. And at the same time, working on extending ground leases. And some component of the ground leases, I think, will always be in that maintenance mode, where we are extending and working to extend it. So some of the activity coming down is just a result of terrific execution over a long period of time and the natural evolution of - once we get 80, 100-years on a ground lease or we acquire it, then that comes off the board and there is no longer any work to do on that site. So it will probably, in terms of quantity or number, continue to come down overtime, and we will continue to kind of make the right financial decision around buying or extending the leases.
Nicholas Del Deo:
Do you see a practical limit as to where you can take the ownership?
Jay Brown:
There are owners of these ground leases that I think will want to hold the property forever. So there is an absolute component where we are going to always have ground leases as a component of the business. Some portion of our ground leases are also on things like government land. And obviously, those will remain in the hands of government entities we won't be able to acquire that. So yes, there is a natural limitation. We are not really close to it yet. There is just the practical aspects of it, where people love to own the land and believe that Crown Castle will be there to pay the ground lease for a long period of time. So it is a good stream of income that they want to continue to hold the lease. And we are happy to be a lessee, if that is the right financial relationship to remain in, as long as we have term and certainty of price.
Nicholas Del Deo:
Okay. And maybe one on the small cell front, I'm sure you guys have pretty good intelligence for where the carriers are self-building small cells and, in some cases, maybe why they went in-house versus using the vendor like you. What are the factors that you've been observing as kind of most correlated to carriers choosing to deploy on their own for particular builds versus leasing? Is it proximity to their own wire line assets or some local market attribute or something else?
Jay Brown:
Sure. I think there is probably two factors. You mentioned one of them, proximity to existing plants that they have is certainly a reason why they would self-perform and use their existing plant to do it. The other reason, frankly, is that there are places where we are not interested in putting the capital because we don't see the lease-up opportunity. So there are limited number of providers of third-party capital building these small cells. Obviously, ourselves and then inside of the Digital Colony portfolio, as they are delivering that as a offering to customers. But beyond that, there just aren't anybody - there isn't anybody else who's doing that at scale. So we are selective in terms of the opportunities in places where we want to invest the capital and put the capital. It is got to not only meet that kind of initial return, but we have also got to be comfortable that there is going to be big demand over time for other carriers to need it. And in places where we would look at it and evaluate the nodes as not meeting the return thresholds by virtue of either the cost to build them or the lack of certainty of lease-up, then those would be locations where we would pass and decide not to invest the capital and the carrier would self-perform. So it is a combination of those two would lead to the vast majority of the reasons why they would self-perform. We have talked about this some in the past, but our view of the number of small cells that is going to be needed in the market, aligns pretty closely with a number of the comments that the carriers have made where they have indicated there is going to be more than a million small cells in the U.S. We certainly don't anticipate building all of those. And so I think as long as the business is around and we are building small cell nodes, I think we are going to continue to see the wireless carriers self-perform. And our opportunity for value creation is to be rigorous and disciplined in our approach to evaluating those markets that have the best potential for lease-up and then making sure that we are really thoughtful about which ones we pick and then how we build those sites on cost and on time. And those are sort of the value opportunities that we are looking for. And then there will be lots of small cells, I think, that will exist in the U.S. that are going to be self-performed by the carriers. And I would look at that as overall activity, it is just a trajectory that I think aligns well with our strategy.
Nicholas Del Deo:
Thanks Jay.
Operator:
And we will now go to David Barden with Bank of America.
David Barden:
Hey guys, thanks so much for taking my questions. So I guess, Jay, just at a collective level, Is there anything that you are seeing from the operators, from a geographic search frame perspective that would lead you to believe that there is an appetite among the carriers collectively who owns C-band to deploy maybe sooner rather than later some of the spectrum outside of the first phase A block clearing. Meaning there is a lot of opportunity for the carriers to deploy beyond the first 45 markets should they choose to do so. And I was interested if you had any color as to whether that may or may not be happening. And then the second question would be, again with respect to the idea that the carriers are mostly looking at C-band as a macro point to start primarily because of the yearend backhaul that they have on existing sites. Are you seeing or expecting that the kind of incumbent tower carriers are going to be gaining the lion's share of the demand here or are you seeing the kind of (Ph), the new tower companies, the Unitis, the Tillmans of the world, are they getting a super normal share of - or the supernormal part of the conversation at the margin as we think about this new deployment?
Jay Brown:
Good morning Dave. On your first question, I'm going to mostly beg off and let the carriers speak to how they are thinking about C-band deployments. But it is probably just a little too specific for us to make those kind of comments or indications. We are obviously, as I mentioned in my earlier comments, we are seeing a lot of C-band activity is driving a lot of leasing activity and I think, overtime, the driver of our business is, as I mentioned before, kind of stacking years of growth and it is going to take multiple years for C-band to be deployed, and we think it is going to be great for us for an extended period of time. But specificity beyond that, I will let the carriers speak to kind of their own plans and initiatives. On the second component of your question around where does the activity go? History, I think, is a really helpful indication of where the carriers are going to deploy this 5G network and how they will think about the C-band spectrum. It is always most cost-effective to deploy the spectrum on locations where they have existing infrastructure. They have already got connectivity there. They have already got power. They have got the basic infrastructure there to be able to add additional spectrum bands. So at least initially, I think the vast, vast majority of the activity will end up on sites where they are already located on. So the existing owners of towers where these carriers are co-located on those sites I think will see the preponderance of activity for some extended period of time. As it gets built out and then as the spectrum begins to be used, then step two is the densification activity. And then that activity is likely to go, frankly, again, on existing sites where the carrier is not yet co-located. The opportunity for new and upcoming tower companies is generally pretty limited to places that are outside the core areas where at least the three big public tower companies own their assets, into places where new housing developments, the extension of suburbia, the sprawl, those kind of areas. Those companies that you mentioned are often building towers in those locations and putting their capital up to meet that need. But that is the sort of second, third kind of level of activity. I think the vast majority of the activities in early days and even maybe even in the medium term is on existing sites.
David Barden:
Great. Thanks Jay, I appreciate it.
Jay Brown:
Operator we will take one more question.
Operator:
Our last question will come from Brandon Nispel with KeyBanc Capital Markets.
Brandon Nispel:
Alright, great. I wanted to go back to couple of these questions on the cash component and the agreement with Verizon. I think that is generally referred to in the industry as it used be. And I'm curious, historically speaking, how long is the contracted committed new leasing portion of the contract lasted when you signed these agreements previously? How does it trend over time? And can you help us think about the value you ascribed to the use fee relative to the term extension. That would be great. Then second question around T-Mobile churn, the disclosures are super helpful. Can you provide what the churn was this quarter and then out of the (Ph) million or so of collocation and other Sprint sites that you have, what would be a good number as you look out over time for you to retain? Thanks.
Jay Brown:
Yes. On the first question, Brandon, I'm going to beg off that question. There is a little more specificity than we would get into on our customer contracts, as I mentioned to Colby earlier. There is a component of that that is related to giving them knowledge of what the actual pricing is going to be for new activity. There is a commitment on their part in terms of activity on existing sites. And then there is obviously the extension of the existing sites to 10-years. And we priced that and negotiated that with the economics of the sites in mind and the right returns. But beyond that, I think that is just too specific and not in our best interest for that of our customers to get into that level of detail. On the second part of the question, around Sprint churn in the quarter, was negligible. Longer term and what you should assume, frankly, it is really early. As we laid out that schedule, we have our first meaningful amount of churn not until 2023. And then after that, I think in each year, it is less than $20 million all the way out to 2028, which is the bulk here of the thereafter that is included in the table. So we are a long way away from kind of needing to have that conversation and too early to predict ultimately what the outcome is. Big picture, as I mentioned a few minutes ago, I think the net investment by T-Mobile in building out 5G will far exceed any of the synergies that they achieve. I think that is consistent with the public comments that they have made and their desire to build out 5G networks. And when we get to a place where we have a better view, whether that is because of contract or just because of the activity that we are seeing, we will certainly come back and take just the disclosure and turn that into more of a forecasted view of what we actually think will start to impact the numbers. But it is a long way out. And at this point, not really ready to provide a specific forecast on timing or amount.
Brandon Nispel:
Got it. Thanks for the question.
Daniel Schlanger:
You bet.
Jay Brown:
Thanks Brandon.
Jay Brown:
I appreciate everybody joining this morning, and I just want to end the call by thanking our team who has done a tremendous job delivering for our customers over the last year and navigating through COVID they continue to perform exceptionally well. So to the team, thanks for listening this morning, really appreciate all the work you are doing for customers and for shareholders. And thanks, everyone, for joining the call this morning. We look forward to catching up next quarter.
Operator:
Thank you very much. And that does conclude our conference for today. I would like to thank everyone for your participation, and you may now disconnect.
Operator:
Good day, and welcome to the Crown Castle Q4 2020 Earnings Call. Today's conference is being recorded.
At this time, I'd like to turn the conference over to Vice President of Corporate Finance, Ben Lowe. Please go ahead, sir.
Benjamin Lowe:
Great. Thank you, David, and good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us today as we review our fourth quarter 2020 results. With me on the call this morning are Jay Brown, Crown Castle's Chief Executive Officer; and Dan Schlanger, Crown Castle's Chief Financial Officer.
To aid the discussion, we have posted supplemental materials in the Investors section of our website at crowncastle.com, which we will refer to throughout the call this morning. This conference call will contain forward-looking statements, which are subject to certain risks, uncertainties and assumptions, and actual results may vary materially from those expected. Information about potential factors which could affect our results is available in the press release and the Risk Factors sections of the company's SEC filings. Our statements are made as of today, January 28, 2021, and we assume no obligation to update any forward-looking statements. In addition, today's call includes discussions of certain non-GAAP financial measures. Tables reconciling these non-GAAP financial measures are available in the supplemental information package in the Investors section of the company's website at crowncastle.com. So with that, let me turn the call over to Jay.
Jay A. Brown:
Thanks, Ben, and thank you, everyone, for joining us on the call this morning. As you saw from our announcements last night, we delivered another year of solid growth in 2020. We expect to generate double-digit AFFO growth per share in 2021, and we secured our largest-ever small cell commitment with the 15,000 node award from Verizon to support their 5G build-out.
Dan will discuss the results in our full year 2021 outlook in a bit more detail in a minute, so I want to focus my comments on 2 areas:
our strategy to maximize long-term shareholder value while also delivering attractive near-term returns and the recent positive developments that increased my confidence on our strategy and growth opportunity.
I believe our strategy and unmatched portfolio of more than 40,000 towers and approximately 80,000 route miles of fiber concentrated in the top U.S. markets have positioned Crown Castle to generate growth in cash flows and dividends per share, both in the near term and for years to come. Despite the challenges presented last year, we continued to build on our long history of consistently delivering compelling growth through various market cycles, highlighting both the strength of our business model and the significant value-creation opportunity our strategy provides to shareholders. One of the core principles of our long-term strategy is to focus on the U.S. market because we believe it represents the fastest-growing market for wireless network investment with the least amount of risk, leading to superior long-term returns. The demand for our shared infrastructure is fundamentally tied to the insatiable demand for mobile data in the U.S., which increased by 30% again last year. Because these growth outlook and market fundamentals are so compelling, the U.S. wireless market continues to attract a disproportionate amount of capital investment. This dynamic is again apparent with the C-Band spectrum auction with gross proceeds of more than $80 billion. During my more than 20 years at Crown Castle, large-scale wireless spectrum auctions in the U.S., like this one, have followed a consistent pattern. First, industry observers questioned whether the capital required to secure the valuable spectrum will crowd out investment in wireless networks. And second, these questions are answered with long periods of sustained significant investment. Similar to the past, the seemingly insatiable demand for data drives the need for additional spectrum. Further, the only way the spectrum can meet the demand is for our customers to deploy it on towers and small cells. I am confident that we will look back in the years to come and recognize how important this auction was for the development of nationwide 5G in the U.S. In addition to deploying more spectrum, cell site densification has always been a key tool that carriers have used to add network capacity, enabling our customers to get the most out of their spectrum assets by reusing the spectrum over shorter and shorter distances. The nature of wireless networks requires that cell site densification will continue as the density of data demand grows, particularly given the higher-spectrum bands that have been auctioned in recent years and that have shorter propagation characteristics. Slide 3 illustrates this point. The higher-frequency spectrum bands are valuable because they provide our customers with the ability to significantly increase network capacity given how much more spectrum is available in those higher frequencies. However, as you can also see on this slide, the signal travels over shorter distances, requiring more cell sites. As a result, we expect both the deployment of additional spectrum and this densification trend to drive significant demand for our tower and small cell assets for years to come. To address this sizable and growing opportunity, we have invested nearly $40 billion of capital over the last couple of decades in shared infrastructure assets that we believe are mission critical for wireless networks. Our tower investments began more than 20 years ago when we built and acquired assets that we could share across multiple customers, providing a lower cost to each customer while generating attractive returns for our shareholders over time as we leased up those assets.
More recently, as wireless network architecture evolve to require a network of cell sites that is much denser and closer to the end users, we established the leading small cell business in the U.S. with the same thought process in mind:
provide a shared infrastructure solution that lowers the cost to each customer while generating compelling returns for our shareholders over time as we lease up those assets. We believe the addition of small cells and fiber to our strategy both complements our tower business and provides substantial potential upside to our 5G growth strategy.
To that point, we recently signed 2 strategic agreements. In November, we announced a 15-year agreement to lease DISH space on up to 20,000 of our tower sites. This strategic agreement established Crown Castle as DISH's anchor tower provider and includes certain fiber transport services to further support their nationwide 5G build-out. This agreement will contribute to our financial results over time as DISH deploys on our tower sites, and we expect to start in the back half of this year. We're excited to partner with DISH to support their long-term infrastructure needs and look forward to working with them as they deploy nationwide 5G network. As we announced yesterday, we are also excited that we have expanded our strategic relationship with Verizon by signing a long-term small cell agreement to support Verizon's 5G ultra-wide band and 5G nationwide deployment. Under this agreement, Verizon has committed to lease 15,000 new small cells, representing the largest small cell award in our history and demonstrating the value of sharing small cell and fiber infrastructure assets with multiple customers. While we believe it is our ability to provide the full breadth of wireless infrastructure assets that allowed us to secure the agreements with DISH and Verizon, highlighting the benefits of the unique portfolio we have built over the last 20 years. With our 40,000 towers and 80,000 route miles of high-capacity fiber concentrated in the top U.S. markets, we believe we will continue to reap the rewards of our investments as our customers continue to roll out their nationwide 5G network. As we noted in our press release, late last year, T-Mobile notified us that they were canceling approximately 5,700 small cells that we initially contracted with Sprint. The majority of the small cells were yet to be constructed and would have been located at the same locations as other T-Mobile small cells once completed. The Sprint cancellation resulted in T-Mobile accelerating the payment of all contractual rent obligations for those small cells as well as the payment of capital costs we had already incurred. In addition to receiving the future rent associated with the canceled nodes, the small cell locations are now again available for future customers. And this development does not impact the long-term growth opportunity for our small cell business. As a result, we finished 2020 with approximately 50,000 small cells on air, and we have meaningfully increased our backlog of small cells committed or under construction to approximately 30,000. As I reflect on 2020, I'm proud of how well our team delivered for our customers and our shareholders during a difficult operating environment. Looking forward, I'm excited about the growth opportunity as our customers embark on what is likely to be a decade-long investment cycle to develop 5G in what remains the best wireless market in the world. Our strategy remains unchanged as we focus on delivering the highest risk-adjusted returns for our shareholders by growing our dividend and investing in assets we believe will drive future growth, and I believe Crown Castle offers shareholders an unmatched opportunity to benefit from the launch of 5G wireless networks. We provide a compelling total return opportunity with a high-quality dividend yielding more than 3%. We are delivering the highest tower revenue growth rate in the U.S. among our peers. We expect to generate double-digit AFFO per share growth this year, even before 5G spending occurs in earnest. Our customers are affirming the value we bring with our comprehensive portfolio of shared infrastructure assets by entering into long-term agreements to access those assets, and we are investing in new infrastructure assets that we expect will extend the opportunity to grow dividends per share 7% to 8% per year. I believe this combination is as compelling for future value creation as we've ever seen at Crown Castle. And with that, I'll turn the call over to Dan.
Daniel Schlanger:
Thanks, Jay, and good morning, everyone. As Jay mentioned, our 2020 financial results add to our long history of consistently delivering attractive growth. Specifically, we increased dividends per share by 8%, which reflects our commitment to return capital to shareholders and demonstrate our ability to grow through various market cycles. We delivered approximately 6% growth in organic contribution to site rental revenue, and we continue to improve our financial flexibility as we lowered our weighted average borrowing costs, extended the average maturity of our debt and reduced our leverage.
Before I walk through the financial results in more detail, I wanted to briefly discuss the nontypical items described in our earnings release yesterday that impacted fourth quarter and full year 2020 results. The Sprint cancellation Jay mentioned generated the biggest of these impacts, including an increase to other operating income, partially offset by a related increase in operating expense and the write-off of capital already spent on the construction of the canceled nodes. Additionally, we implemented a reduction in staffing primarily in our fiber segment that resulted in associated severance costs in the fourth quarter. The fourth quarter and full year 2020 net benefit of these nontypical items, which were not contemplated in our prior full year 2020 outlook on both adjusted EBITDA and AFFO, is approximately $286 million. We do not anticipate the nontypical items will have a material impact on our 2021 outlook, which remains consistent with the outlook we've provided in October. To make the financial figures in this earnings presentation more comparable, full year 2020 results and growth figures for full year 2021 have been adjusted to exclude the impact of these nontypical items. Turning to Slide 4 of the presentation. Full year 2020 results were consistent with our prior expectations with site rental revenues and adjusted EBITDA increasing 4%, while AFFO increased 9% when compared to full year 2019. The 4% growth in site rental revenues included approximately 6% growth in the organic contribution to site rental revenues, consisting of approximately 5% growth from towers, 15% growth from small cells and 3% growth from fiber solutions. Focusing on investment activity during the year, we deployed approximately $1.5 billion toward discretionary investments in 2020, including $1.2 billion for fiber and approximately $320 million for towers. These investments were balanced with approximately $2.1 billion paid in common stock dividends or $4.93 per share, representing 8% growth when compared to dividends paid during 2019. Now turning to Slide 5. Our full year 2021 outlook remains unchanged with 4% growth in site rental revenues, 5% growth in adjusted EBITDA and 12% growth in AFFO. As shown on Slide 6, the expected 4% growth in site rental revenues includes approximately 6% growth in the organic contribution to site rental revenues, consisting of approximately 6% growth from towers, 15% growth from small cells and 3% growth from fiber solutions. As a reminder, DISH has publicly stated they expect to begin their network deployment later this year, so our outlook does not include a material contribution from DISH's build-out. Likewise, our recent agreement with Verizon is not expected to have a material impact on 2021 results. As it relates to the balance sheet, we finished the year with approximately 4x debt to EBITDA on a last quarter annualized basis, which includes the net benefit from the nontypical items discussed earlier. Adjusting to include those items as onetime impacts that are not annualized, our leverage would have been approximately 5x. During 2020, we improved our balance sheet flexibility by extending the weighted average maturity by nearly 2 years, reducing our average borrowing cost by 40 basis points and reducing our leverage to our target of approximately 5x. Looking forward, our expectation for 2021 capital expenditures remains unchanged at approximately $1.5 billion. We expect we will be able to once again fund this discretionary capital with free cash flow and incremental borrowings, consistent with our investment-grade credit profile. As I wrap up, we are excited about the positive demand trends in the U.S. wireless market and the opportunity we see to translate that demand into double-digit growth in AFFO per share this year. Looking further out, we believe our focus on the U.S. market and our ability to offer a broad portfolio of towers, small cells and fiber solutions, which are all integral components of communications networks, provides us the best opportunity to deliver superior long-term, risk-adjusted returns for our shareholders. Before we open the call to questions, I want to also mention that we were recently informed by the SEC that they have concluded the previously disclosed investigation and that they do not currently intend to pursue an enforcement action. With that, David, I'd like to open the call to questions.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] And we'll take our first question from Mike Rollins with Citi.
Michael Rollins:
Just curious if you could spend some time discussing more of the small cell deal that you announced with Verizon in terms of how to think about the economics for this larger small cell deal versus maybe some of the others that you signed. How much might be on existing infrastructure versus infrastructure debt to be built and how that can flow through the P&L over the next few years?
Jay A. Brown:
Yes. Thanks, Mike. A few things I would mention about this. And obviously, we're careful about the commercial terms under which we negotiate with the customers, but I think there are a few things that we can speak to related to it.
First is the returns that we would expect to gain from this agreement are consistent with the long-term approach that we've taken with deploying small cells. So initial yields of 6% to 7%, if they were to be the anchor deployment and then if they were to be a co-location on existing infrastructure, it would take those returns into the yields on invested capital into the low double digits. So from a return standpoint, really consistent with what we've seen historically. We don't know the exact locations that these nodes that they've committed to will ultimately land in, so I can't be more specific than that. In terms of what the returns will look like, we'll have to let some time pass and see as they identify the locations, and then we'll update that, obviously, as we go. I do think broadly, this is a -- the Verizon agreement is a real affirmation of our small cell strategy, and they believe there's real value in a third party providing the infrastructure to them. And I think we're in a great position to do that. So we're focused on making sure we deliver for them and help them get their 5G launched. And this agreement is really -- it's the floor. It's the beginning of what we think is a big start towards 5G, and I think we'll see more of this as time passes as we work to build out these 5G networks, but this is the early days and the start of something pretty exciting that we're doing with Verizon.
Operator:
And next, we'll go to Simon Flannery with Morgan Stanley.
Simon Flannery:
Great. Just following up on that. You've got 30,000 in backlog now. And any ability to think about taking that 10,000 per year install rate higher, anything that maybe under Chairman Rosenworcel would might see some action at the FCC to help on any of those items?
And then on C-Band, presumably, the carriers now know what markets they want in. Do you think you'll see much in terms of prepositioning during '21? Or is it really most of the activity is going to be in '22 at this point?
Jay A. Brown:
Yes. Simon, thanks for the questions. Obviously, we're trying everything we can to increase the speed at which we deploy small cells. It's a very difficult and challenging activity to get through the process of working with local communities, making sure the way we design these is consistent with the aesthetic that they would want in their particular communities. And so I don't really have any update to the time line that we're typically seeing as we deploy these. It's generally kind of 2 to 3 years from the time that we identify a location to where we're ultimately able to build them. But there is a lot of work that we're doing, trying to figure out ways to do that faster for our customers. And obviously, it's to the benefit of their networks to be able to get them out there faster.
But there's also a component to this that, as we've talked about, similar to towers, these are very high barriers to entry at the local community level. And so the careful work that we have to do with those communities to make sure we're sensitive to the aesthetics that they want as well as building these within the parameters that they desire into their community is critically important and something we're really focused on making sure we balance those 2 desires for speed as well as doing things the right way. The question on the FCC and the support that we've seen from the regulatory agency there over time, I think, will continue. Obviously, it's a big push of the current administration to have broadband for all, and they have been very supportive in their public comments about the need and necessity for 5G to be deployed in the U.S. and to lead the world in 5G deployment. So I think the operating environment in which we're both co-locating on existing assets as well as making investments into future assets, I think the environment that we see from a regulatory standpoint will be pretty similar to what we've seen over the last several years. On your last question around C-Band and the impact on 2021. Obviously, the auction is just drawing to a conclusion now, and I think we will see later in this year as the carriers start to speak about what their actual deployment plans for that spectrum will be. As we think about the outlook that we've provided, we really didn't include any impact from C-Band. And I think given the calendar, it's probably unlikely that, that would contribute to our financial results in calendar 2021. But as we get into the year and the auction gets completely wrapped up and carriers can speak to the spectrum positions that they gained, I think we'll be able to provide more clarity at that point, probably later this year as we think about 2022 and beyond.
Operator:
Next, we'll go to Matt Niknam with Deutsche Bank.
Matthew Niknam:
Just 2, if I could. One, on the reduction in staffing, any more color you can provide in terms of what drove this? And maybe where we should think about future cost savings to be recognized?
And then secondly, maybe a little bit related to this. In terms of the fiber business, if you could talk to any change in terms of the day-to-day or strategic outlook for the business with a new COO for fiber now in place.
Jay A. Brown:
Sure. Thanks, Matt. On your first question around the reduction in force, that was focused primarily in the fiber on the network side. We're always focused on trying to operate the business as efficiently as possible. And in those efforts, we found some opportunities to gain some synergies, and so we did that in the fourth quarter of last year. Obviously, there were a number of employees that were affected by that and had done a great job for us, and I wish them all the best in their next endeavors.
As I think about, strategically, around small cells and the fiber business and what we're seeing, there are a lot of positive developments. Obviously, the completion of the agreement with Verizon is a really positive development. We're going to be working hard for them to help them get their network on air. The beginning of the launch of 5G creates another opportunity for cell site densification and then the work that we've talked about over the last several years around 4G. I think the carriers are going to continue to densify their 4G networks. In addition to the investment that they've made -- that they're going to make on the 5G side, I think we'll continue to see 4G sites deployed and -- over time there. Great to have our new COO in place, Chris Levendos. He's been with the company for a number of years. I think he'll do a terrific job on an operating basis and operating that business efficiently, and he's off to a great start. He's been in the role since December 1 and doing a great job and look forward to the work he'll do ahead.
Operator:
Next, we'll go to Colby Synesael with Cowen.
Colby Synesael:
Great. Two, if I may. Obviously, a lot of debate on the cadence of T-Mobile churn or, I guess, the legacy Sprint churn over the next several years. Some of your peers have started to give color on what that might look like, even beyond 2021. And I think you guys have actually mentioned that we could start to see some of that come through in 2023. Can you give us just a little more on the quantification of what that could look like in 2023? And then my understanding is that the next big chunk, if you will, would come in 2028. Just curious if that's correct, and again, just trying to get a better sense on the quantification.
And then my second question. Of the $362 million that was recognized as it relates to the Sprint small cell contract cancellation, how much of the total contract value does that $362 million equate to?
Jay A. Brown:
Sure. Colby, I'll take the first question, and Dan can speak to some of the specifics on the cancellation. Big picture, Colby, I would go back to some of the things that we've talked about in the past. And I know you're referencing some of the materials that are available in our supplement, which I would encourage investors to take a look at, if we break down details by customer by year.
Big picture, there's 5 years weighted average remaining on the T-Mobile and legacy Sprint contracts. There's about -- on a consolidated basis, there's about 5% of our revenues that are overlapping sites, sites where both Sprint and then legacy Sprint and T-Mobile are co-located on. And we've used that as kind of a bookend of what the potential impact around churn could be. At this point, there are no specifics of what their plans are that we have to share. So being specific about what will exactly happen in '23 or '28, we're not prepared to speak to that because we don't know. Broadly, though, I think, and this is where your question is going, broadly, we're always open to working with our customers on structures that meet their needs without compromising our own economics under those lease agreements. We were really intentional several years ago with both Sprint and T-Mobile about extending the agreements that we had -- tower agreements that we had with them over multiple years, and that's why we sit here today with 5-year weighted average life remaining. Obviously, that gives us significant ability to navigate through the work that they're going to do around finding synergies in their network. And I think they will find synergies in the network, and we'll be impacted to some degree by that. But I think it's also true that we've grown through past events of churn, past events of consolidation, and I'm comfortable that we'll be able to do the same. So as we talk about our long-term goal of being able to grow the dividend 7% to 8% per year, we think about that in the context of a multitude of different opportunities and risks at the top line. And on balance, I think we'll be able to navigate through the one that you're raising here without any significant challenges to our long-term growth rate and targeted dividends per share.
Daniel Schlanger:
Yes. And Colby, this is Dan. I'll take the second question you asked around the $362 million. That is a payment for the future rent that we would expected -- we would have expected to have received on all of the nodes that were canceled as well as the capital that had been spent to date on those nodes. So I think the short answer is it's all of the future value of the contract that we got paid late last year.
Colby Synesael:
And just a real quick follow-up to Jay's response. I mean, assuming -- I guess, regardless if it's a churn or not, am I correct in thinking that the next big chunk of legacy Sprint leases up for renewal is in 2023 and then the next one in 2028?
Daniel Schlanger:
Yes, Colby. Yes. There's an agreement that expires that has some amount coming on in 2023 and then the next one is 2028. But as Jay mentioned, that's going to be a part of how T-Mobile thinks about their network. And just because the agreement comes up doesn't necessarily mean that it's churning that year, so we're going to be working through that with T-Mobile.
As Jay mentioned, we have a good relationship with them and happy to talk to them about how they want to manage those sites in connection with the entirety of their network, which is where we'll head over the course of the next several years with them.
Operator:
And next, we'll go to Brett Feldman with Goldman Sachs.
Brett Feldman:
So yes, as you pointed out correctly during your presentation, virtually all of the spectrum that's going to be deployed from here to support 5G networks is that frequency that's much higher than what we've seen in use in the current networks. And so it makes sense that the current site density is insufficient to fully utilize them.
So the question I have is what about the tower inventory? Tower, historically, have been built in locations that are optimized around the frequency bands carriers were using. So are you seeing an emerging opportunity to maybe more meaningfully reengage your tower construction business for your own use because it's been a while since you've materially built out your portfolio? And then are there any other infrastructure categories that might become increasingly attractive for you to invest in as carriers look at a new degree of density, whether that's helping them build out indoor systems where they can make better use of these high frequencies and maybe looking at the economics around rooftops?
Jay A. Brown:
Thanks, Brad. Obviously, the deployment of the spectrum and the acquisition of the spectrum by the carrier is going to need both macro sites and small cells. And similar to the past deployments, I think probably in the early days, we'll see that more weighted towards the macro site.
But the -- where you went with your question around the build of additional assets, the opportunity to build additional towers in the U.S. is really, really limited, and I don't think anything about this spectrum auction is going to change that. So I would not expect that you're going to see either our own allocation of capital or, frankly, investment across our industry broadly, whether that's the large players, public players in the space or even the smaller players in the space. I don't think you're going to see a significant increase in the amount of tower build that happened in the country. It is very, very difficult to co-locate -- or to build new assets, new tower assets in the top 100, top 150 markets in the U.S. That is basically blanketed with an -- with the tower infrastructure that's there today. The opportunity to densify is really going to come with fiber and small cells. And it's why we made the investment many years ago, got ourselves into the space and started to learn how to build it, how to deploy it and get the right kind of assets for where the world was headed. We saw this densification coming and the need for it, realized that macro towers wouldn't be able to entirely meet that need. And so we began to invest in the complementary assets of small cells and fiber that are going to make this densification possible. So I think you'll see co-locations on towers. Towers is going to see a great amount of growth from the deployment of these spectrum bands, and then I think you're really going to see the reason why we originally made these investments and have continued to make the investments. As densification happens, I think that will happen in great amounts on fiber and small cells. Are there other areas of infrastructure that are interesting to us? You spoke to in-building. There are some small number of in-building systems that we are doing. We find venues to be attractive when they meet our rigorous approach to allocating capital, if they exceed our returns and we think there's co-location there. Some of those make sense. But frankly, in terms of the scale of investment, it's really relatively small compared to what we see in the more public right-of-way opportunities to do infill and site densification with small cells and fiber, complementing the tower portfolios that are out there. So I don't see anything on the horizon currently that would cause us to deviate from our plan of the primary investment opportunities in front of us are small cell related.
Brett Feldman:
If I can just ask a quick follow-up question. Your customers, your carrier customers have generally been able to use all of the spectrum bands that they hold licenses for off of their macro tower locations. Are you expecting that any site that they occupy today will eventually be upgraded to use the new mid-bands they're acquiring? Or do you think it's going to maybe be a subset of your towers that are in the right geographic locations to help with those frequencies?
Jay A. Brown:
I think If we took a long view and not kind of -- I don't think you're asking this question over the next 2 to 3 years because I would defer on that answer. But if I think about long term, 10 years, 15 years, 20 years out, in the top 100 markets, I think virtually all of the spectrum bands that the carriers have today will be operating all of those spectrum bands over time. The carriers will upgrade their equipment. They'll add additional lines and antennas and ultimately be broadcasting all of the spectrum bands that they have for the -- on the vast, vast majority of the macro tower sites that they're on.
And then I think based on the amount of usage that ultimately happens, you'll see them be targeted in terms of the deployment and densification inside of those markets to supplement and extend the -- and expand the network capacity by utilizing fiber and small cells to make those macro sites as efficient as they possibly can. That generally happens over a period of time. So if we go back in history and watch and look at how the carriers have deployed network, you can almost look at kind of the top urban markets, the most densely populated, and those will see the benefit of this kind of activity first. And then over time, you'd see that expand out to the more suburbia as well as to other markets that maybe are not quite as densely populated. So I think it's a long game and probably focused, at least initially, on the top markets.
Operator:
Next, we'll go to Ric Prentiss with Raymond James.
Ric Prentiss:
A couple of questions. On the small cell side, given the Verizon contract within the Sprint's cancellation, how should we think about pacing of adding small cell nodes each year over the next several years? Is 10,000 still kind of a good number, knowing that you don't have all the details on Verizon yet?
Jay A. Brown:
Yes. Ric, our assumption, as we gave the guide and we talk about our 7% to 8% per year growth in dividends per share is based on a level of activity that's pretty similar to what we're seeing today. Obviously, over time, our long-term view would be that there's going to be a demand and a need for a greater number of small cells than that which would increase our pace. But for the near term and as we think about our 7% to 8% per year guide for growth in the dividends per share, that's based on activity that's relatively similar to what we're seeing today.
Ric Prentiss:
Okay. And is that 7,000, 10,000? Just trying to scale it in our model, thinking through the growth rates.
Jay A. Brown:
Yes. It's about 10,000 per year, yes.
Ric Prentiss:
Okay. Sure. Great. Okay. And then on Verizon, are there aspects of the -- given that we see Sprint cancellation, is the Verizon deal more of a take-or-pay contract? Is it an MLA sales contract? How should we think about -- not getting into too much of the specifics, but just kind of the commitment level for Verizon?
Jay A. Brown:
Yes. So as I mentioned earlier, we try to avoid getting into too much detail around the commercial -- the key commercial terms of the agreement. But what -- the commitment there, it's similar to what we would have seen historically from a tower standpoint, where the carrier is making a commitment to us of a certain number of sites. And obviously, we're making a commitment to Verizon to extend the capital to deploy those small cells for them.
So as we get into the agreement and time passes, then we'll be identifying together the appropriate sites that meet our rigorous return thresholds. And there may be other locations that they have an interest to build small cells that really don't clear our investment hurdles, and they'll end up finding -- building it themselves or finding another third party to provide those. But we'll really just have to go through a passage of time and see ultimately how that comes out. But the commitment is 15,000 small cells over a long period of time. They're making a 10-year commitment to us in terms of rent on those 15,000 sites, and the rent will commence once we install and build the small cells. And as I mentioned earlier in one of the answers to the question, the returns are really consistent with the returns that we've talked about historically, if we end up anchor building a portion of those as well as the economics around what co-location will look like.
Ric Prentiss:
Okay. And last one is a left-field technology question that we seem to get every 10 years, at least, as far as what's out there. We get a lot of incoming questions about satellites, low-orbit satellites, what the impact is from low-orbit satellites on wireless companies, the tower companies. Specific to SpaceX Starlink, but also a newer one, AST & Science, can you talk a little bit about how you view where satellites position is in kind of this future world?
Jay A. Brown:
Sure. The dynamics and physics of the way these wireless networks work, in the places where we operate infrastructure towers and small cells and fiber, I really don't see any opportunity for satellite to be a meaningful component of the network. Frankly, I think it will be a very, very small component, if any at all, over time.
The ability to transfer data quickly as well as the time it takes to move the data from earth to even a low-orbit satellite is going to create just too much latency in the network to be a viable competitor to the terrestrial-based infrastructure that makes up the vast majority of the infrastructure in the market today. I think there are places, though, particularly really rural locations where some of the low-orbit satellite opportunities could be really interesting of a way of the delivering broadband to places that just economically don't make sense to build terrestrial networks, too. And then the other place where I think there will be opportunity over time is in disaster recovery situations where you have -- we've seen this happen in Puerto Rico a couple of years ago and other places where there's a targeted area that needs to be covered. And I think you'll -- you may see some solutions. People have talked about balloons. They've talked about satellites. I really think those are short-term solutions, except in rural locations, but could be helpful in a disaster recovery situation where there's a small area of the terrestrial network that's been removed as a result of a natural disaster, could be interesting in those locations. But beyond that, I really don't see any meaningful portion of the wireless networks that are going to be handled that way. And I think you can point to -- obviously, we can point to the agreements that our customers are signing. If you look at what DISH just committed to us on -- for the deployment of their network as well as the behavior of our customers, I don't -- I think our contracts speak to the fact that they believe this is -- this terrestrial-based infrastructure and towers and small cells is the way that networks are going to be deployed over the long period of time.
Ric Prentiss:
Hence, it's law of physics or law of physics.
Jay A. Brown:
Haven't changed.
Ric Prentiss:
Exactly.
Operator:
And next, we'll go to Tim Long with Barclays.
Timothy Long:
Two questions, if I could. First, on the network services side. I think last quarter, there was talk of a little bit more activity coming up, but it looked like it was down a little bit in the quarter. Understanding it's a lumpy business, could you just kind of give us a sense if there's anything specific to that? And how we should think about that rolling over the next few quarters?
And then the second one, maybe just a little higher level. I wanted to go back to the C-Band. If you could talk a little bit about your expectations. Given the price tag for this spectrum reportedly is much higher than anyone thought, do you think at any point this changes the dynamics for your businesses, maybe for build versus lease on small cells or fiber or any change potentially to the cadence of what you'd expect and maybe touching the towers given the impact on telco fundamentals?
Daniel Schlanger:
Yes. Tim, it's Dan. I'll take the first question on services. The revenue we saw in the fourth quarter was very much in line with what we expected out of services, and the gross margin was as well once you take out the impact of the nontypical items we've been discussing. So I think it would be fair to say that the activity levels are consistent with what we would have expected.
As is typically the case going into the first quarter, there's seasonality to it. So we would expect a downtick going into Q1 in the services business and also some incremental costs that we see that generally happen in the first quarter around property taxes and employee expenses, things like that. But nothing that I would say is indicative of a change in our expectation around activity that's happening in the tower business going forward.
Jay A. Brown:
Yes. To your second question, Tim, and I spoke to some of this in the prepared remarks. But there's a long history of what happens in the U.S. after large spectrum auctions, and that leads to a significant demand for our tower infrastructure and believe this will be similar for our fiber and small cells. And this is a dynamic that will be beneficial to our industry and particularly to our company, and we expect that to be the exact same case once the C-Band spectrum is in the hands of carriers and they're ready to deploy it.
More spectrum is obviously needed. Much has been written on this topic. The FCC has talked about it. The carriers have talked about it that more spectrum is absolutely needed in order to meet this 30-plus percent annual demand of growth in wireless data. And the significant investment that the carriers are making today in that spectrum can only meet that growing demand and generate for -- generate returns for our customers once it's actually deployed. So spectrum goes first and then the operators then deploy that spectrum, and that goes really well for the infrastructure providers. To the extent, as you were alluding to, that the size of the check raises questions about the capacity for future investment going forward, I think it further highlights the value proposition that we offer as a shared infrastructure provider. We're offering capital, in essence, to the wireless carriers across our towers and small cells, and it's cheaper for them to deploy that spectrum that they acquire across the shared asset because we're willing to take the risk that we'll be able to get multiple users and thereby reduce the cost to the carriers of deploying that spectrum across the market. So I think it feeds right into our value proposition, and it's one of the most encouraging things that happens in our infrastructure business. Once the spectrum is in the hands of the operators, we're able to come alongside the operators and provide a shared infrastructure solution to help them get it deployed. And I think the C-Band auction is just another example of how the run rate -- the runway of growth is extended in the business and should lead to great things in our industry and for our business.
Operator:
And next, we'll go to Phil Cusick with JPMorgan.
Philip Cusick:
Just a little bit of a follow-up on a couple that have been asked. First, on the small cell pace. With Sprint canceling 5,000 or 6,000 sites, can you maintain that 10,000 pace this year? It seems pretty optimistic. And again, for next year, if those Verizon backlog numbers are going to probably take 5 years -- 3 to 5 years to get in.
And then on the services side, you gave us some good read. What are you seeing from the municipal approvals at this point?
Jay A. Brown:
You bet. Phil, on pacing, we mentioned in the release and in our comments that about 1,000 of the canceled nodes were expected to be put on air in 2021, so we'll go through the year and see kind of where we end up. But I think in and around -- as I mentioned before, in and around that 10,000 small cells deployed per year is what our expectation is. So we would expect to fill up those 1,000 in another way. And then in the years beyond that, again, our best view at the moment is that we'll be at that pace of about 10,000 per year. And if that changes, then we'll go through the process of updating that. But that's our expectation based on what we see today.
In terms of what we're seeing from municipalities, I made this comment in my prepared remarks about a credit to our team for how they've navigated through difficulties. This would be an example of how difficult the operating environment has been. Obviously, all of us working in an office environment have gone through the process of working from home and what that means. That's a little more challenging when you are working with municipalities and gaining the rights to get construction permits and zoning permits. And our teams have done a terrific job this calendar year in working with the municipalities as the processes have had to change without slowing down our ability to deploy the infrastructure that's so critical for our customers. So it has absolutely changed in the operating environment in terms of how the blocking and tackling of gaining a zoning permit, how does that happen. It's absolutely changed, but our team has done a terrific job of navigating through that and getting to the place where our ability to deliver for customers was unaffected.
Philip Cusick:
Can I follow up on the small cell side? You mentioned filling those sites in a different way and maybe again in '22. What's the conversation level like with carriers? Do you have more sort of major backlog discussions that things that aren't signed yet aren't in the backlog but maybe to the tune of this Verizon deal?
Jay A. Brown:
So I think what I'd speak to is we're constantly having conversations about the network and the opportunity for us to provide the infrastructure to them, both on the tower side and on the small cell side. And the dynamics that are in the market today in terms of the spectrum deployment, the growing demand for data, the obvious need for the carriers to continue to invest in their network to meet that growing demand for data are leading to conversations that give us confidence that we'll be in and around that pacing of about 10,000 small cells per year.
One of the things -- just thought might bring up in terms of making parallels to the history and passage of time of small cells and towers. If you think back over the last 20 years of the tower business, the commitments that have been made by the carriers and that have been announced when they commit to a number of new installations or new sites with us, those commitments help establish protocols that enable us, both sides of the agreement, to work collectively and easily through the deployment cycles. And the establishment of a number, like in the case of the Verizon commitment of 15,000 small cells, it enables both parties to set up some ease of doing business together that, frankly, just make it easier for us to go through the process of deploying infrastructure for them. The same thing has been true on the tower side. But if you zoom out and think about the last 20 years, the same thing was true on the tower side. The carriers, over time, have made commitments to us for a certain number of new sites that they'll co-locate on or that we'll build for them, but those are a fraction of the overall tower activity that they ultimately did with us. I think the same thing is true on the small cell side. So commitments by the carriers are helpful. I think they're helpful data points for investors to look at and to see that there's commitments by the carriers towards future deployment. But our expectation is that this is more the start of the floor of the activity and that the business will follow more the pattern of the history of the tower business where it establishes the ability for the companies to do business relatively easily. But ultimately, the amount of sites that gets deployed will be far in excess of the sites that just show up on commitments that are talked about in grand scale. And that's the nature of the type of business that we're doing, where this is really a local business. So working with the local markets at each of the carriers to ensure that we're providing an infrastructure solution that meets their need at the local market area is really how we transact with our customers. And some of these agreements, like the one with Verizon, enabled that to happen more easily.
Operator:
And next, we'll go to David Barden with Bank of America.
David Barden:
Two, if I could. So we've talked a lot about the capacity limitation for the small cell build in terms of incremental nodes. If you look at the glide path of revenue growth in '20 from the first quarter, 18% to the jumping-off point 13% range for fourth quarter, what are the levers that you can pull if you can't pull the volume lever to get to the kind of 15% growth target that you guys talk about? Is that bottleneck in terms of deployment actually may be an advantage for you guys to lever in terms of initial yields? If you could talk about that.
And then the second question was, you evolved on a ton of work on DISH and what they might be doing with open RAN and then beating that to death. But one of the things that has come up in that is that there's this new generation of multi-beam antennas that have much broader range than normal, and that's what DISH's intention is in order to exploit a pretty diverse spectrum portfolio. Do you see any line of sight to the possibility that the carriers are kind of forced through the C-Band process, simply that every one of their towers to kind of come back and maybe economize on their footprint on a tower?
Jay A. Brown:
You bet. Dave, as you know, I think my comments around the pace thing probably still hold. I'm not sure there's much more to add there in terms of we think we're going to be building about 10,000 per year. The places where we could increase the pace of that building would largely be around gaining municipality approvals, permits. And I don't see anything in the current environment that would suggest the pace at which we're doing that would increase or decrease meaningfully from the current operating environment. But we're going to continue to work at it and see opportunities. To the extent that we get kind of a breakthrough there and that changes, we'll obviously let you know.
The other thing I would just mention about this is that the amount of revenue that are -- is added site rental revenue that comes online from small cells is based on the return profile of the systems that we're building or that carriers are deploying on, so there can be pretty significant variance in terms of what those revenues look like on a per-node basis based on the environment in which we're putting those nodes into and what the underlying costs associated with that deployment is. We think about pricing small cells much more on a return basis rather than just the price per node. It's driven by what our returns are. So that may be part of what causes -- as you kind of do the math and think about it, that's probably the -- one of the places that I would point to is maybe a little bit of a difference in the way that we think and as we're operating the business. On your second question around DISH and the antennas and how do the carriers economize their network, I think the carriers will continue to use technology to reduce the amount of cell sites that are ultimately needed or antennas or lines that are ultimately needed on infrastructure. It's a way of reducing their deployment costs for deploying sites. And we've seen that happen over a long period of time. I know there've been a number of studies that have talked about how the use of next-generation antennas over time have increased the ability for the carriers to cover a particular location. We've talked about MIMO antennas and the benefits of those of reducing some of the deployment costs. And I would expect the carriers will continue to be really thoughtful about how they allocate the capital and use technology to reduce the cost of those deployments. And ultimately, that adheres to our benefit. As they reduced the actual cost to deploy, it enables there to be more capital for them to deploy additional sites. So it's synergistic in terms of the densification process that they use technology to reduce the costs. They're able to put more of that capital into densifying their network, which obviously a [indiscernible] benefit.
David Barden:
And Jay, if I could just follow up on your earlier comment. So is it -- is the law of large numbers spend simply going to grind down the rate of growth in small cells?
Jay A. Brown:
I would look at, big picture, we spent some time talking about top line growth in the business, but we're much more focused around at the bottom line, what do we think we can deliver for shareholders? And that growth in dividends of 7% to 8% per year per share, we think we can do that over a long period of time.
Obviously, the law of large numbers is at play in our business because it's a fixed asset that's put in the ground. And then upon which, we start to add co-location and growth. And when we have one tenant on them and add the second tenant, the revenue grows by 100%. And then when we add the third tenant, the growth rate on that individual asset is much lower than it was when we added just second tenant. So absolutely, the path that has been followed by towers will be followed by small cells where the growth rate comes down. But growth rates don't ultimately drive the value in our business. It's about the return on the invested capital that ultimately adheres to the benefit of shareholders. So our focus around where we're investing the capital and where we see the growth opportunities are about expanding those returns across that investment base and the assets that we own. So yes, at the top line, it will come down over time, but that doesn't necessarily parallel to the growth and the returns that we ultimately achieve by the -- through the asset investments that we've made.
Daniel Schlanger:
And David, this is Dan. Let me just add one thing. Jay mentioned this earlier. We believe that, over time, we're going to see more demand than this. And so you can say that at a constant level of 10,000 a year, the growth rate would go down because of the law of large numbers. But it's not our anticipation that 10 years from now, we're going to be putting 10,000 nodes per year on air. We anticipate that number will be significantly higher. So the transition Jay is talking about like what happened with towers from a higher growth rate to a lower growth rate will happen, and it will just take a really long time because we think that we're at the very beginning of the 5G investment cycle, and this is a decade-long investment that is going to be required to meet the demands that are coming. And a lot of that's going to go to small cells, and we're just now seeing the beginnings of that.
Operator:
Next, we'll go to Jon Atkin with RBC.
Jonathan Atkin:
So a couple of questions. On DISH, you talked about second half's activity. And I just wondered about -- from a revenue recognition standpoint, do you see that commensurate with completion of site construction? Or is the timing dictated more by kind of higher-level MLA considerations?
Jay A. Brown:
Jon, it's going to show up in our revenue as they deploy the site. As we identify the location and then they deploy those sites, then the revenue will start to run through our site rental revenues. So the impact we would expect will be relatively limited in our 2021 financials, and then we'll just have to see -- as we give guidance for '22, we'll update that as we get further along. But the impact to the site rental revenue specifically will be tied to the actual deployment schedule.
Daniel Schlanger:
Yes. And Jon, we tried to talk about this the last time we had a discussion around DISH. But it's a little odd that we have a contracted payment that we have with DISH that's going to come. We won't recognize that until we identify those sites because you have to have a lease, which is a single site, before we can start recognizing site rental revenues on a lease. So we have contracted payments, but what will happen and run through the income statement will be very much associated with the activity that we see from DISH on a site-by-site basis.
Jonathan Atkin:
On the small cells with Verizon, I just wondered the -- does that commitment incorporate small cells that were already in your sales pipeline from that customer? Or is it additive?
Jay A. Brown:
It's additive. So there are small cells that are in the pipeline doing with them that would not be included in that 15,000 commitment.
Jonathan Atkin:
And then lastly, on headcount. There's quite a lot of job openings on your website, and a lot of them seem to be kind of field-related roles related to fiber and network and so forth. And so I just want to get a sense as to kind of what the trajectory is to expect? And are we seeing kind of realignment in the type of role within that segment? Or what explains kind of the reductions that you saw but also the fact that you seem to have quite a lot of openings in that for the same segment.
Jay A. Brown:
Sure. From a big-picture standpoint, as you think about building your model and where our financial results are, I think the operating expenses that we've disclosed would be our view for 2021. And I don't frankly see based on the comments that I was making around pacing, I don't really see any change to that. We're constantly making sure we have the right talent in place. And depending on the markets that we're operating in and where we're deploying activities for customers, we're going to need to make sure we have the right resources in those markets for that kind of activity. So I wouldn't point to anything relative to your question that I think changes the financial outcome or the economics of the business.
Operator:
Next, we'll go to Walter Piecyk with LightShed.
Walter Piecyk:
Jay, I think a couple of years ago at one of the conferences, we talked about kind of this establishing your fiber position and waiting for this inflection point to really get the returns on the fiber business. And we talked about like tens of -- hundreds of thousands of small cells sale. I'm just looking at this Verizon deal. It took 4 years for I think it's whatever it is, 15,000 sites. The scale just doesn't seem to be there, and that's a 4-year commitment. When do you think this inflection point is going to happen?
Jay A. Brown:
Well, I think I would point to the Verizon agreement again to some of my earlier comments. I think it represents a significant investment on the case of -- by Verizon. It's the largest in our company history in terms of the commitment by any customer to us. So from a scale standpoint, it would point to sort of a meaningful increase or inflection point, as you described it, from what we've seen historically.
I think that -- and I made these comments a little bit earlier around thinking about the Verizon agreement is more of a floor than a ceiling, but the agreement is also a significant investment commitment of capital on our part. And as you know, when we invest for these multiple -- as we invest -- make those investments, we're thinking about multiple carriers that are ultimately going to need these sites in order for us to make those investments. And we're not going to do all of the small cells in the market. So there are going to be locations, markets, where, frankly, the growth in small cells are not going to align with places where we think there will be multiple carriers. And so we're not going to do it all. And the carriers need flexibility when they make commitments to be able to go out and build where they're -- they have need but in places where our -- we don't think our returns are going to align with that. And when that happens, then they'll either use another third party or they'll build it themselves. So I think there will be -- as Dan was speaking to a moment ago, I think there will continue to be growth over a long period of time, and we will see increasing numbers of small cells. And I think the Verizon agreement is sort of a first step towards the benefit that's going to come with 5G and the increased need for small cells. And I think you'll see -- you are going to see, I believe, millions of small cells ultimately in the U.S. market. And we'll get our share of those in places where we own the fiber, but there's also going to be lots of places where the carriers decide to do it themselves. And some of that will be because, frankly, we don't see the opportunity to put capital to work at risk-adjusted returns that make sense for our shareholders.
Walter Piecyk:
So why don't you think Verizon would have, at the time, if I'm understanding the agreement correctly, use the opportunity of a negotiation to also secure small cell locations that are co-locations on top of -- -- it sounds like all the 15,000 is -- are going to be tied to CapEx. I mean it would seem like if you're going to do a 4-year agreement, especially that long period of time, kind of like you would have a master lease agreement that you'd also secure rights or commitments to doing some level of colo, which shouldn't seem to be the case here.
Jay A. Brown:
No. Please don't take my comments to be inferring that we're going to build all anchor nodes for them. That's not the case. The locations haven't been identified, and I would expect that portions of these will be co-locations on existing systems. It makes their deployment faster and...
Walter Piecyk:
Right. So that's actually my initial point where that's like the aggregate amount. And some, you will get additional tenants on. But some, it is the additional tenants.
Let me just try the question one more way. Forget about law of large numbers. Again, I realize that the small cell opportunity is massive over time when it comes. But if you only add, again, a certain number of nodes every year, by definition, the law of large numbers kicks in. So is there a time frame when you would think that the 15,000-or-so nodes that you're activating per year, whether co-location or newbuilds, inflect up to something more meaningful like 50,000?
Jay A. Brown:
Well, I think it's relative to the investment base and relative to the number of assets and markets that we own. The business -- I mean just stepping back from it. And it's a good question to say, "Okay. At what point do you ultimately get the returns in the business?" And I think a couple of quarters ago, we went back and walked through kind of what we saw on the tower space.
It took us nearly or like I think a little over 10 years just to get to the point where we were clearing the cost of capital on the tower side from a return standpoint. This is a business that's marked by making sure we get the right locations early and then, over time, incrementally growing those returns. And there's nothing that I see in the small cell business that would say our yield on invested assets from a fiber standpoint is north of 7% today, and it's basically right around where our blended cost of capital is. And I don't see anything on the horizon that would suggest to me that we're going to market -- see a significant increase in the yield in that capital. What I do think will happen over a long period of time through operating the business well, adding co-locations is we'll incrementally increase that yield over a long period of time, such that when we look back after 10 or 20 years, we look at it and see the benefit of the investment that we're making, which is really incumbent upon us then as we think about where do we put the capital, we're trying to align that with the places that are most likely to need that lease-up over a long period of time in the exact same way that we did it with towers. And as we talked about a couple of quarters ago, as we took a deep dive into certain markets, then we'll update that again and the midyear of 2021. As we go down to the market level and to the asset level, we can see it playing out exactly like that, where in certain markets where the investments are really new and early, the yields on the invested capital are relatively low. In markets where we've been in for a long period of time and the assets have started to see the co-location, then the returns that you're asking about start to come to fruition. Big picture, the entire pie of opportunity, we think, directionally, is going to increase over time. And if you ask my really long view, then, yes, I think there is going to be a day when we're doing meaningfully more small cells than what we're doing in the calendar year. But then we'll have to look at, "Okay. What's the appropriate capital base against that?" And as time passes, then we'll update you on what that looks like and where the opportunity is.
Operator:
And next, we'll go to Nick Del Deo with MoffettNathanson.
Nicholas Del Deo:
You hit on everything substantive I wanted to ask. Just thought maybe one accounting question for Dan. Maybe can you break out how the $76 million in incremental OpEx related to nontypical items was spread between the various line items?
Daniel Schlanger:
Sure, Nick. Happy to. It's about $25 million in cost of sales, about $10 million that impacted service gross margin and around $40 million in G&A.
Nicholas Del Deo:
Okay. And the G&A, how much of that was segment level versus unallocated overhead?
Daniel Schlanger:
I would say about half-and-half, segment and unallocated overhead.
Operator:
And next, we'll go to Spencer Kurn with New Street Research.
Spencer Kurn:
I just had a question. I was a little bit curious Verizon signing a big small cell deal combined with T-Mobile, Sprint small cell deal at the same time. On the T-Mobile cancellation, was there an opportunity for them to repurpose those 5,700 small cells that Sprint had contracted with you for other locations? Or was there another reason why that small cell contract ended up being canceled and repaid?
Jay A. Brown:
Yes. Spencer, thanks. I think that's probably a question you should ask T-Mobile. They gave us notice that they wanted to cancel the nodes at the end of late last year, and so we just worked through it with them. But in terms of their rationale or their reasoning for doing that, I'd let them speak to that.
Spencer Kurn:
Okay. Understood. And just one more, if I may. In the past few months, you've signed 2 large, long-term leasing deals, one with DISH and one with Verizon. My question is are these deals in any way a function of a shift in your selling strategy, maybe from negotiating leases on a site-by-site basis to taking a more holistic approach to your portfolio?
Jay A. Brown:
I think they are different in one respect. They're different because of the actual dynamics that are occurring in the market in the situations that the customers are in with the assets.
In the case of DISH, they have no existing infrastructure or they're not on any meaningful number of tower sites in the market. So they're deploying a nationwide network, and it is helpful and cost-effective for them to pick an anchor provider upon which they design their entire network around. They chose Crown Castle to do that, we believe, in part, because of the quality of our tower assets as well as our ability to deliver fiber transport services to them. And that means that they're anchoring or building, designing their network around our sites. We think that creates a significant opportunity for us, both in the near-term years to come, but also over the long term, as they deploy that network. I can't think of another example in the last 15 years where a carrier, from scratch, was looking at deploying a nationwide network. So I think the basic idea of having to deploy a network from scratch drives the need to pick an anchor provider and then work closely with them, and we're obviously pleased to be their partner and working hard to deliver on their expectations of getting their network built. In the case of Verizon, again, I would point to some of the comments that I made before that whenever there's a commitment of size like this and obviously the largest one we've ever done with a carrier with Verizon this quarter that we're announcing, this creates, really, an opportunity for us to work together through some of the operating protocols to make sure that we're able to work together well. And the commitment and size enables us to go do that work together as to how we're going to work together. And we think it's a good start for the deployment of 5G small cells, but it's just to start and think there will be more to come. I think there will be some operating benefits going through this for us and then ultimately the returns as we both co-locate those nodes on existing infrastructure and then deploy capital to build anchor nodes for them in places where we think there will be future returns.
Operator:
And next, we'll go to Brandon Nispel with KeyBanc Capital Markets.
Brandon Nispel:
I'm curious if you could just comment on the pacing of 3G network shutdowns and the impact that churn could have on your business. I know some of your customers have sort of delayed and pulled forward both 3G network shutdown?
Jay A. Brown:
Yes. Brandon, similar to history, as the carriers transition from the current generation, whatever that is, to the next generation of infrastructure, they go through a process of going through their network, generally starting in the most urban densely populated areas, converting those networks into the new generation, in this case, converting towards 5G, and then over time, moving themselves out from that core to more rural locations.
And the carriers have been in the process of converting 3G networks into 4G networks for better part of the last decade. And I think as we build out 5G, that will be at least a decade-long process would be our estimation. And you'll see the carriers continue to convert legacy 3G into either 4G or maybe skipping a generation and going directly to 5G. The sites upon which they were previously, we would expect those will be largely repurposed into the next generation of communications infrastructure.
Operator:
We'll move to the next question. Next, we'll go to Tim Horan with Oppenheimer.
Timothy Horan:
So Jay, do you think ultimately the mid-band spectrum we need like twice as much cell sites as we would given the limitations on physics? And can you talk about what type of ARPU risk you would expect as they upgrade each one of these cell sites? I know there's a million moving parts. The antennas are smaller, that there's MIMO in it, maybe they're deploying C-RAN with it, but just rough idea on both of them.
Jay A. Brown:
Yes. Ultimately, the number of sites that will be needed will be a function of what's the growth rate of traffic and demand from a wireless standpoint. I think the table that we put into the presentation is helpful because it shows directionally the move and the need for investment towards site densification. How much site densification ultimately happens I think will be a function of what's the growth rate in data. And under, I think, any scenario that you could come up with, we feel really good about where we're positioned against that growth rate and think that we'll be able to continue to deliver on our long-term target of 7% to 8% per year growth in our dividends per share.
On your second question around ARPU, I think I'd defer that to our customers and let them speak to what they see as the revenue opportunity per user as the spectrum bands get deployed and built out.
Timothy Horan:
Well, I was referring a little bit more how much revenue you could get per cell site for upgrades roughly. I mean the antennas are a lot smaller, and it's much less money than a 600-megahertz upgrade to do a 3.5. Or any thoughts around how much more they have to spend per site?
Jay A. Brown:
Sure, Tim. As they deploy the spectrum, sometimes we'll see on a tower site, based on traffic or usage that -- or need that they have, they'll deploy a full installation. And that may be 9 antennas and lines or more. And occasionally, we'll see it more in the form of an amendment where they're swapping out antennas, increasing size of antennas, and it's really a site-by-site decision that the carriers are going to make. So being really specific as to what the opportunity of dollars per site will ultimately be for us is probably more precise than we're able to be.
But directionally, in terms of return on assets, both on the tower side and on the small cell side, I think the deployment of these spectrum bands enables us to increase both our revenues and gross margin at the per-site level and then most importantly increase our yield on assets over time as we lease up the assets.
Operator:
Next, we'll go to David Guarino with Green Street.
David Guarino:
I just want to follow up. I think it was on a question Spencer had asked. Could you guys give your view on T-Mobile's activity on the small cell leasing side over the next few years? And the reason I asked is just trying to understand the rationale for making a large upfront payment today rather than just amending the contract, assuming that was an option.
Jay A. Brown:
Yes. David, we really don't like to speak to our customers' deployment plans. Let them -- we want to let them speak for themselves around why they make the decisions that they make around network investment and view. These sites that they canceled were locations where T-Mobile is going to have small cells, and I believe they just thought they didn't need the Sprint co-locations in those same locations. But beyond that, I think that's really just a question for them to speak to the way that they were thinking about their network over a longer period of time.
David Guarino:
Okay. That's helpful. And then on the Verizon deal, just circling back to that. Do you guys anticipate needing to make additional investments in fiber? Or was the agreement specifically for small cell nodes on top of the fiber you guys have already laid? And then depending on the answer to that question, is there any change to your discretionary CapEx guidance for '21 that you provided last quarter?
Jay A. Brown:
Sure. On the first question, there will be some places where we need to build some additional fiber for them as a part of the capital that we'll spend on their behalf to extend the network. There'll be other places where they'll be able to co-locate on fiber that we've already built or acquired.
In expanding out your question, just broadly, I would say it does not change our view around acquisitions or the -- or our interest in those acquisitions. I think from this point forward, the vast majority of what will happen in the space will really be organically built rather than acquisitions. And I think our capital and investments will be focused more around those organic builds rather than looking at acquisitions in the market, even though some capital will be expended on -- and needed for the Verizon deployment of small cells. Thanks, everyone, for joining this morning. And I just want to give a shout-out to our team one more time. Thanks for all the work that you did in 2020 to deliver for the customers. Obviously, a really challenging operating environment, but you all did a terrific job delivering for them and providing great returns for our shareholders. So thanks to the team, and thanks, everyone, for joining the call this morning. Talk soon.
Operator:
And that does conclude today's conference. We thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Good day and welcome to the Crown Castle Q3 2020 Earnings Call. Today's conference is being recorded. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Ben Lowe. Please, go ahead.
Ben Lowe:
Great. Thank you, Marie, and good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us today as we review our third quarter 2020 results. With me on the call this morning are Jay Brown, Crown Castle's Chief Executive Officer; and Dan Schlanger, Crown Castle's Chief Financial Officer. To aid the discussion, we have posted supplemental materials in the Investors section of our website at crowncastle.com, which we will refer to throughout the call this morning. This conference call will contain forward-looking statements, which are subject to certain risks, uncertainties and assumptions and actual results may vary materially from those expected. Information about potential factors which could affect our results is available in the press release and the Risk Factors sections of the company's SEC filings. Our statements are made as of today, October 22, 2020, and we assume no obligation to update any forward-looking statements. In addition, today's call includes discussions of certain non-GAAP financial measures. Tables reconciling these non-GAAP financial measures are available in the supplemental information package in the Investors section of the company's website at crowncastle.com. So with that, let me turn the call over to Jay.
Jay Brown:
Thanks, Ben, and good morning, everyone. As you saw in our earnings press release from last night, we delivered another quarter of positive results. We remain on track to generate growth in AFFO per share this year that is consistent with our 7% to 8% target. And we expect growth to accelerate to 10% in 2021. I would highlight three key financial points in our earnings press release
Dan Schlanger:
Thanks, Jay, and good morning, everyone. As Jay mentioned, we delivered another quarter of solid results. We remain on track to generate at least 7% growth in AFFO per share in 2020 and we expect AFFO per share growth to accelerate to 10% in 2021, allowing us to increase our dividend by 11% to $5.32. Turning to Slide 6 of the presentation. Site rental revenues and adjusted EBITDA grew 4%, while AFFO increased 8% in the third quarter 2020 when compared to the same period last year. During the quarter, we experienced an increase in activity on towers that resulted in a meaningful increase in the contribution from services when compared to recent quarters. We expect a further increase in industry activity as our carrier customers invest to improve their existing networks and as 5G investments ramp, which we believe will start in earnest in 2021. However, the full rebound in activity on towers is continuing to occur a bit slower and later than we previously expected with a portion of the activity we expected to occur in late 2020 shifting into early 2021. As a result, on Slide 7, you will see that at the midpoint, we've decreased our 2020 outlook for site rental revenue by $43 million, adjusted EBITDA by $83 million and AFFO by $8 million. These changes are primarily the result of the expected shift in timing I mentioned, partially offset by lower than expected interest expense and sustaining capital expenditures. Specifically, the change in timing of towers activity negatively impacts the expected 2020 organic contribution to site rental revenues by approximately $20 million and services contribution from towers by approximately $50 million. Additionally, the combination of the shift in timing as well as fewer lease extensions than previously forecasted negatively impacts our 2020 straight-line revenues by approximately $20 million. These changes are offset by approximately $10 million in lower expenses, $30 million in lower interest expense and $25 million in lower sustaining capital expenditures. As a result, for full year 2020, we now expect approximately 6% growth in organic contribution to site rental revenues consisting of approximately 5% growth from towers, more than 15% from small cells and approximately 3% from fiber solutions. We also expect adjusted EBITDA to grow about 4% and AFFO per share to grow around 7% in 2020. Shifting over to our full year 2021 outlook on Slide 8. We expect organic contribution to site rental revenues of $295 million to $335 million or approximately 6% growth, consisting of approximately 6% growth from towers, 15% from small cells and 3% growth from fiber solutions. It's worth pointing out that our outlook does not include a material contribution from DISH Networks wireless network build out, as we expect activity on that front to begin in late 2021, consistent with their public commentary. As Jay discussed earlier, we expect discretionary capital expenditures in 2021 to be approximately $400 million lower when compared to 2019, totaling approximately $1.5 billion as we apply a rigorous analytical approach to each capital investment decision. We anticipate the combination of lower capital expenditures and higher cash flow growth will allow us to fund our discretionary capital budget next year with free cash flow and incremental debt capacity consistent with our investment grade credit risk profile. As it relates to the balance sheet, we finished the quarter with 5.4 times debt to EBITDA, a weighted average maturity of 9 years, no maturities until 2022 and approximately $4.5 billion of undrawn capacity on our revolving credit facility. Our debt maturity profile is a result of a deliberate approach to minimize financing risk and more closely match our debt maturities for the long-term nature of our asset base, while focusing on driving down our overall cost of capital. Turning to slide 9, we expect 2021 growth in AFFO of $300 million to $345 million or approximately 12% growth. In addition to the approximately 6% expected growth on organic contribution to site rental revenues, the outlook includes expense increases that primarily reflect the combination of typical escalations in cost of living increases as well as incremental direct costs associated with fiber revenue growth. An increase in services contribution tied to the expected increase in tower activity in 2021 and an expected contribution to growth of $60 million to $90 million from other items, primarily related to the conversion of preferred stock that occurred during the third quarter that will reduce annual preferred stock dividends paid next year by approximately $85 million. So before we open the call up for questions, there are three key things we want to make sure you take away from our discussion. We increased our dividend by 11%, the capital intensity in our fiber business is declining while delivering consistent growth, and we expect to fund our 2021 capital plan without the need for additional equity. Looking further out, we believe our ability to offer towers, small cells and fiber solutions, which are all integral components of communications networks, provides us the best opportunity to deliver superior risk-adjusted returns for our shareholders. And with that, Mary, I'd like to open the call to questions.
Operator:
Thank you. [Operator instructions] We can take our first question now from Michael Rollins of Citi. Please go ahead.
Michael Rollins:
Thanks and good morning.
Jay Brown:
Good morning.
Michael Rollins:
Good morning, guys. I'm curious if you could delve further into the tower leasing activity. So, the prior guide, I believe, was $170 million to $180 million within total new leasing activity. And as you look at it shifting $20 million into 2021, what's holding then that pace going back relative to 2020 and do you see opportunities for site rental dollars to continue to get better from the 2021 level over the next few years as we look out at the potential activity from your carrier customers? Thanks.
Jay Brown:
You bet. Good morning, Mike. Big picture what I would say is, we'll continue to see really consistent growth across all of the carriers in the business. And I think the commentary that I made going back and looking at both our capital allocation plans historically, but also the activity of the carriers over the last decade shows a consistent investment in the network. And I think we expect the same thing going forward. Anytime anyone looks at the business and starts to try to figure out inflection points, it always gives me pause because history would suggest that there is a steadiness to the investment of capital and that the improvement to networks in order to provide data capacity for consumers is a long road, not a short one. And so, as we look forward, what I think we're most excited about is the long runway of growth that we see. On the tower side, we see consistent revenue growth over a long period of time as 5G gets built out. And then, in terms of the potential upside, the comments that I made around the iPhone 12 and the opening up of millimeter-wave, we think it's probably the most likely path of seeing significant upside to the consistent growth that we would expect driven by 5G over the coming decade.
Dan Schlanger:
And I think, Mike, it's important just to point out that we're seeing 6% growth in our tower business going into 2021, which we think will be pretty well received or look pretty good compared to our peers. And that's without all of that investment that Jay is talking about. So, I think we're -- and then we're translating that into 10% AFFO per share growth. That's a pretty good set up to be in, where we're moving into 2021 with really good tower growth, really good AFFO growth and a lot of upside from there.
Michael Rollins:
And if I just follow-up on small cells? When you describe that you're seeing more colocation opportunities for 2021 in the plan, is that a reflection of more colocation concentrated when you already are seeing success? Or are you seeing the colocation get more distributed across the different markets?
Jay Brown:
Yeah. The colocation will be coming on assets that we have both acquired and built over a period of time. And obviously the colocation that we're putting on in 2021 reflects nodes that we put into the pipeline, probably a couple of years ago, in most cases. So, it's a reflection of those assets that we acquired or built several years ago. And then, as we talk about it often, they then lease-up over a long period of time. And as we look at the business, obviously we've increased the base of investment over the last several years as we've built anchored new system and the expectation of those new anchored system is that over time they would see colocation and lease-up. And as we look at the pipeline for 2021 and as we were talking about the capital intensity associated with that growth, obviously the capital intensity comes down as colocation goes up. And in 2021, we're reaping the benefit both in terms of higher yields on the assets over time from colocation and also lower capital intensity related to those assets.
Michael Rollins:
Thanks.
Operator:
We can now take our next question from Brett Feldman with Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.
Brett Feldman:
Yeah. Thank you for taking the question. When I look at the composition of your outlook for next year, you're expecting that non-renewals at the midpoint of the range will be pretty similar to what you're expecting this year. And the question I have is, you do actually have Sprint leases that come up for non-renewal next year. I'm curious, what are you assuming about them? And then, I know you have a considerable amount of time on average with your T-Mobile and Sprint leases. T-Mobile has clearly shown through its MLAs with your peers that they have a desire to align the lease terminations with when they actually do site decommissioning. If you were to allow that, you'd be making a concession. So, you've done this in the past, how do you think about the trade-off that you might be willing to make in a revised customer agreement where you might allow them to take sites off sooner? What do you have to get if you feel like you've been made whole or better off in that relationship as a result of it? Thank you.
Dan Schlanger:
Yeah. Hey, Brett. I'll take the first one. On the churn assumption going into 2021, we talked about this before that the acquired network churn that we had seen coming up through at the end of last year had a rollover effect into 2020 that would stop by the end of 2020. And so, 2021 churn is lower and it is kind of the lower end of our 1% to 2% long-term churn rate. Even within that though, as you pointed out, the specific churn around Sprint, we have some of that assumed in our model in how we're thinking about churn going forward. So that's inclusive of the Sprint churn to be at that low end.
Jay Brown:
Yeah. On your second question, Brett, obviously we shy away from talking about specific customers and specific deals with our customers. So, I'll mostly beg off of that question. Big picture, in terms of the economics and how we think about our customer relationship, the value that we provide to the customers is a shared solution that ultimately lowers their cost of being able to deploy the network. And that value proposition, regardless of the construct under which it's made with each of our customers, look to be really healthy and intact. And so, as I look across the landscape, I think both on the tower side and on the small cell side, the value proposition holds through a number of different market cycles. And we're looking, at the same time, we're providing that value proposition to the customers, we're trying to be thoughtful about making sure we get an appropriate yield on the invested capital that we have. And that's true both on the tower side, as well as the small cell side. So, now we've laid out our contractual provisions in the supplement. Obviously we have about five years remaining on the T-Mobile leases and we'll continue to work with them as we do with all of the carriers to make sure we have the right contractual relationship to ensure that they have access to the assets and get network deployed in an expeditious fashion. And we're getting the appropriate returns on the invested capital.
Brett Feldman:
Thank you.
Operator:
We can now take our next question from Simon Flannery of Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.
Simon Flannery:
Great. Thanks a lot. Good to hear the momentum in the small cell business and the opportunity around millimeter-wave. Can you talk a little bit about what the pipeline discussions to backlog looks like your ability to kind of add to the, I think it was 20,000 in backlog over time. I think there's some concern that companies like Verizon will focus a lot on self-perform. And so, how are those conversations going and how do you expect them to evolve, so when we really see that the backlog start to ramp? And then related to that is, I know going back a couple of years, you were hoping to really accelerate the pace of small cell construction. Any change in that momentum either in the near-term or in the medium-term that you see where you could start to shorten that time frame? Thanks.
Jay Brown:
You bet. Good morning, Simon. On the first question around the pipeline in small cells, we're continuing to have really encouraging conversations with our customers about their need and our ability to perform for them and both deploy capital and deliver small cell nodes for them. And so, the environment in which we're having conversations with the customers, as evidenced by some of the comments that I made around millimeter-wave and the necessity of increased cell site density, are really encouraging and supports kind of our longer-term view that small cells are just an integral component of wireless networks. And I think as you've heard both Verizon and AT&T talk about this week that you really can't do wireless without wires, without fiber. And fiber is, I think, in terms of the conversation both with our customers and more broadly as people look at this industry, I think more and more you're seeing the blending of both fiber and wireless. And I think you're going to see that trend continue. So, I think, we're still early stages in terms of what that's going to look like, but the total addressable market, all of the signs point to an increasingly large addressable market. Our role and capture of that addressable market, I think, comes down to both where we've chosen to historically invest our capital. As you know, we focus most of the capital in the top markets in the U.S. We think those have the potential to produce the highest returns on invested capital. So we focused our fiber investments in those top markets because we think they have the best opportunity for future small cell lease-up. As I listen to what the carriers are saying, I think, they believe that they're going to need small cells well beyond just the top markets in the U.S. and that's going to require fiber deployed in a lot more locations than frankly will probably meet our return thresholds. Dan talked about in some of his prepared remarks, the rigorous analysis we go through in terms of allocating capital. We think about what kind of markets in the U.S. do we really want to allocate capital toward. And there are places in the U.S. where we choose not to pursue request for proposals from the carriers and we've chosen to focus most of the capital investment in the top markets because we think the highest growth is there. So I think that leads to a commentary both today and what I would expect continue long into the future where the carriers are going to self-perform a meaningful portion of the small cells that they need, there may be other third parties who also enter the States. And I think that just speaks to how big the addressable market is going to be and also our discipline in limiting where ultimately we're willing to extend capital where we think the best returns for Crown Castle are. I think if those two things play themselves out, which we'll see over time. I think there's plenty of addressable market for us to get great returns on the capital that we've invested thus far. And at the same time, I think, you'll continue to see the carriers to self-perform in locations where it just doesn't make sense for us to extend the capital. On your second question around accelerating the construction process, we are obviously working every day to try to figure out ways to do that better and faster. And the team has worked hard at that and there are instances where we have found some opportunity to be able to do that. I would say, as I said in the past, the idea that there is a -- that it's easy to deploy small cells and to deploy fiber is really a fallacy. This is a very difficult and long process to go through the zoning and planning process of being able to deploy small cells in the U.S. And I don't really see anything on the horizon that would meaningfully change that. I believe that the significant moat around the business and will remain intact and in place for a very long period of time. And to the extent, therefore, somebody has fiber in locations where small cell network that has been built for future small cells. I think there is a real advantage to that in place operator for capturing future opportunity around small cells. So, we're working every day to try to figure out a way to deliver these small cells faster for the customers, but I think the dynamics of zoning and planning and working with the utilities drive a pretty long timeline that thus far we really haven't seen change meaningfully.
Simon Flannery:
Thank you.
Operator:
We can now take our next question from Jonathan Atkin, RBC Capital. Please go ahead.
Jonathan Atkin:
Thanks. I had a question about 3Q and then about the 2021 expectations. Can you give us a sense of the kind of the monthly cadence that you saw on your macro site leasing, was the tempo any notably stronger than, say, July or August? And then, on 2021, you mentioned the timing expectations around DISH and I wondered if you have any sort of comment about the expectations around some of those, say, mid-3 gigahertz deployment throughout 2021 front-end loaded? So when do you start to see activity from that on your portfolio? Thanks.
Dan Schlanger:
Yeah. Hey, Jon. On your question on Q3, I think what we can just see from the overall Q3 results and then our 2020 guide going into 2021 is, activity is accelerating into the back half, albeit at a slower pace than what we would have expected. You can see that in a couple of places. One is relatively substantial increase in services that we saw from Q2 into Q3. And then, again, just the increase in overall leasing activity that was on from 2020 into 2021. I think, as always, we've talked about that -- and Jay mentioned it earlier -- that we feel really comfortable with the overall activity levels increasing and all of the demand that's being placed on wireless networks requiring an increase in the amount of capital and operating expenses being required from our customers to keep up. But it's always hard to tell exactly when the timing of that -- any type of change will happen. So trying to pinpoint it to a month of our quarter has always been hard. And what we're seeing -- what we're excited about is that we're moving into 2021, we see our tower growth accelerating into that 6% range. And like I said earlier, that's a great place for us to be as we see a continuing – as Jay mentioned in his prepared remarks, insatiable demand for data on top of a 5G ecosystem that's being developed now that we think will generate substantial opportunities for us going forward.
Jay Brown:
Jonathan, on your second question, again, to my comments earlier about T-Mobile, I certainly want to let DISH speak to their own plans and timing around what they're thinking about deployment of a network. So, it's – I think it's fair to draw from the public commentary that they've given thus far. And certainly in our own outlook, we did not assume a significant contribution from DISH in 2021. But based on their public commentary, we would expect more of a contribution as we go into 2022.
Jonathan Atkin:
And then, finally, on the operation side with Jim Young's announced departure, just any kind of an update into how things are going to be run going forward, who you're looking for, and how things organizationally might be different, if at all?
Jay Brown:
Sure. We did announce that we had hired an outside search firm to help us look at both internal and external candidates for that role, for our COO of Network. And we feel good about the process that's ongoing. We've seen a number of quality candidates, but no specific updates at this time. I would – to the part of your question in terms of what are we looking for, what do we expect? Obviously, looking for somebody who has a proven ability to lead a large organization of our scale and size, and we want to make sure we pick somebody who has a good understanding of the strategy and an ability to execute against that strategy and drive returns on the invested capital that we've put there. So, no specific update beyond that and we'll let you know as soon as we make a decision on that front.
Jonathan Atkin:
Thank you.
Operator:
And we can now take our next question from Tim Long of Barclays. Please go ahead.
Tim Long:
Thank you. Two, if I could. Just one follow-up on the fiber business, you had a reduction in capital intensity. Obviously, it's something that is interesting and there's probably some timing there. Just wondering, if we should look at that as kind of a 2021 event just based on timing or is this something that you think has a multi-year tail to it? And then, second, just on a higher level. Can you talk a little bit about edge compute and maybe you have Vapor IO deal but curious to see as we move toward edge compute, how you think fiber will play into that? Some of your peers have got involved in data centers, so just curious thoughts there? Thank you.
Dan Schlanger:
Yeah. In terms of capital intensity, we called out two things. One is, we finished a few fiber projects that we had inherited with some acquisitions we have done historically, we finished those in 2020, we wrap them up. And those will continue going into 2021. A lot of that is in line with our strategy of leading more with small cells and with fiber solutions. And as we continue to push on that, we do believe that that's more of a longer-term impact to our business. And that when we're looking at building fiber throughout the markets, as Jay pointed out, the top 25 markets, top 30 markets to begin with, that we want to lead with small cells. And there maybe cases where we could come up with a situation where we lead with fiber solutions, because we think small cells are coming relatively quickly in the same places. But for the most part is a small cell decision. Are we wanting to invest in that market for small cells yet or not? And if the answer is no, then we're not going to lead with fiber solutions. And in many cases, these are deals that were based on fiber solutions. So it is a longer-term type of capital allocation decision we're making there. In terms of the second reason that we called out for why we have less capital density is an increase in the proportion of small cell nodes that are colocation from where they had been historically. As Jay pointed out, it was about 70% to 80% anchor builds historically. And this year, we're looking more like 60% anchor builds and 40% colocation. And because of that, the capital intensity is coming down. I would say that, the remainder of our backlog looks more akin to the 70% to 80% anchor builds, so that's not as long-term unless, of course, we get some bookings that would replace those colocation nodes, which, as you know, are quicker to go into production, just because we already have fiber and existing poles already, so that would happen faster. So if we get some bookings that may change that, but I would say right now on our backlog, it looks more like what we've seen historically.
Jay Brown:
To your second question, we did make an investment in Vapor IO, which is a edge compute company. And on this topic, I would say, the world is continuing to move toward wireless. And if you look at the amount of data traffic as referenced – as I referenced in my prepared remarks, it is growing at an unbelievable pace. And edge compute becomes really important as users and providers using those wireless networks are trying to figure out ways to reduce the latency in the network and lower the overall cost of delivering that data. And edge compute is a way of doing that by both moving compute power as well as storage as close to the user as possible. And that becomes increasingly important as industrial applications materialize even beyond what we think of today as mostly consumer-driven applications. So, I think there's a lot of opportunity there. It also highlights the necessity of everything in the network being connected by fiber, both small cells, macro sites, edge compute. And I think it's another indication of the necessity and the importance of fiber in the next-generation of wireless networks. So we're excited about the opportunity there. We think we're well positioned in terms of the investment that we've made. It doesn't have a meaningful impact today on any of our results nor do we expect that to be true in 2021, but it does give us a view toward the future and we're excited about the upside, not just in our investment in edge compute, but what that portends for the rest of the business and the increasing data traffic going across the wireless networks and then the investment required in order to get there.
Tim Long:
Okay. Thank you very much.
Operator:
We can now take our next question from David Barden of Bank of America. Please go ahead.
David Barden:
Hey, guys. Thanks so much for taking the question. So the first one and I apologize if I missed this, but Dan just in terms of the guide for 2021, what if anything you have from C-band deployments in there and realistically could it be a contributor to the 2021 outlook? And then second question on the -- one of your competitors signed an MLA with one of your major customers recently. Last quarter that company took the carrier contribution to 2020 out of their guidance entirely, because that carrier was being very aggressive with respect to the willingness to steer business to competitors like yourself. Is there anything about the second half of 2020 or 2021 that might represent some kind of supernormal contribution from a carrier that had signed an MLA with one of your competitors that might shift business back in that direction. How do you speak about that dynamic in the competitive marketplace? Thanks.
Dan Schlanger:
Yes. Thanks, David. I'll take the first question on 2021 outlook. We don't give outlook according to specific spectrum bands or specific customers. What we look to is to try to figure out what is the level of demand that's coming and where do we think that the -- our carrier customers are going to allocate capital in order to meet that demand. I think, there is --as you pointed out, one of the important aspects that makes the U.S. market so attractive is, there is a lot of spectrum that has been purchased recently or will be purchased in the upcoming few months through C-band specifically that is laying fallow and not generating return and not meeting the demand from end users. And that's what's driving the overall increase in tower leasing activity that we're going to see and we expect to see going into 2021. We would anticipate that whoever ultimately owns that C-band would want to deploy it at some point and whether that's in 2021 or beyond, it will just add to our tower growth over time just like any spectrum had before. And we're generally agnostic to which spectrum is being deployed. We're looking for how is the ultimate end user demand going to be met through deploying more spectrum, densifying more sites, building small cells, going on additional towers, but there's nothing specific or not specific in that for a C-band deployment necessarily.
Jay Brown:
Dave, to your second question. I would describe the activity that we're expecting in 2021 to be normal levels of activity. And as we look across the landscape of the carriers, they are all investing in the network and we think we'll benefit from that. And I think the idea of growth in this business just really big picture if I step back and look at what's going on in the environment is, we're growing topline revenue growth at a very attractive clip and that is translating as we talked about in 2021 into a double-digit dividend increase, some 11%. And if I go backwards and think about what's happened over the last four years in those dividend increases, we've grown the dividend about 9%. So in terms of the return of capital to shareholders, we've seen an acceleration in terms of that increase in dividend to the shareholder. We're seeing tremendous growth on the top-line side, and the best part about it is, we have a view toward the future that looks like this is going to stay in place for an extended period of time. And there are a lot of elements of it that say there's going to be a really long runway of growth. And so our business which has historically been marked by really consistent investment among the carriers, I think that investment trends is in place and looks like there is a pretty long runway ahead of that continued investment by our customers. And I'm pretty excited about where we're positioned in terms of capturing that and then translating it into returning cash to our shareholders through the form of dividends and then continuing to invest along the way in assets we think can further that dividend growth.
David Barden:
Thanks, Jay.
Operator:
And we can now take our next question from Colby Synesael with Cowen. Please go ahead.
Colby Synesael:
Great. Thank you. Two rounds of questioning. One is just on small cells and getting some Hello? Can you hear me? …
Jay Brown:
We can, Colby good morning. Yeah, we can hear you fine. Good morning.
Colby Synesael:
Good morning. Just on small cells, I was wondering if you can give us the updated numbers for install and backlog. I think you said 20,000 in backlog, which I guess is in another 5,000 were installed in the quarter and that you would have -- I guess, at this point already hit your 10,000 mark for installs for 2020, which was the previous guidance. Just curious, could you just confirm that? And also, what is the expectation for installs in the 2021 guidance? And then, secondly, is there any risk to guidance for 2021 that you could go and sign an MLA with any one of your customers, in 2021 that could result in an accelerated churn beyond which you are currently showing in your 2021 guidance, as of today? Thank you.
Jay Brown:
You bet. So, on your first question, just to, kind of, square everybody away in terms of where we are on small cell nodes. We came into 2020 with about 40,000 nodes on air. We expect to exit 2020 with about 50,000 on-air and then we expect by the time we get to the end of 2021, that we'll have about 60,000 nodes on air, so similar levels of activity in 2020 and 2021. That means we'll exit this year with about 20,000 nodes roughly in the pipeline still to be completed. On your second question around, our 2021 outlook, we gave a range because there is, a number of different things that could obviously happen, as we get into the year. And I guess you raised one specific area. I wouldn't, again, comment on specific customer contracts. But, to the extent that there was an allowance that we were to make contractually with the customer on being able to exit committed revenue that they have to us, we would expect to have an equivalent value return back as a part of any discussion that we would have. So, I would never say never to a theoretical question like that. But the value would have to be there to us that would materialize in some other form. So, I would look at the outlook that we gave to 2021 as similar to any other year that we would give outlook. And we're trying to give a range of possibility to potential upsides that could help us, if things go well. And then, the low end of the guidance if things didn't go quite as well as we expected. And we're trying to give you a balanced view of a number of pluses and minuses as we go into the year.
Colby Synesael:
I mean, you obviously know why, I'm asking that question, given David Barden's question just a moment ago, about a particular company in MLA. But is there a situation where an extra value, if you will, that you would have extracted to potentially allow customer to do that? That would be actually value you would see in outer years 2022, 2023, et cetera. And therefore, there could be some near-term offset, if you will, but over the longer-term still ideally you'd want to do?
Jay Brown:
Colby, I think answering that in the theoretical is basically impossible. We are economic animals at heart. And we run a massive capital investment base that we put together over 20-plus years. And our goal is to maximize the yield on that investment by working thoughtfully with the customer, to ensure that they have a compelling opportunity to go on the site. And to be able to do that as expeditiously as we possibly can. So there is a real value to our customers of sharing it. And we're aiming to maximize the value and the return on the assets. And we hold ourselves out to be as flexible as we can be, in accomplishing those two goals, both offering a shared solution that's good for our customers and at the same time trying to maximize the return on the asset, if we can tick both of those boxes, happy to consider what makes the most sense, but in the theoretical really frankly impossible to be any more specific than that.
Colby Synesael:
Got it. Thank you, Jay.
Jay Brown:
You bet.
Operator:
We can now take our next question from Spencer Kurn of New Street Research. Please go ahead.
Spencer Kurn:
Hey. So, I have a couple on your tower guidance. With the $150 million to $160 million of revenue that you guided to in 2021, could you just talk about the cadence of that throughout the year? Are you expected it to exit at a higher level, than you start out with?
Dan Schlanger:
Yeah, it's pretty flat through the year. But as typically the case, we generally see a little bit more activity in the back half of the year, than we do in the front half of the year.
Spencer Kurn:
Got it. Thanks. And then, I just had one follow-up on, millimeter-wave. It's interesting that you guys are really bullish on it for small cells. And also, we've seen Verizon talk about deploying five times the number of small cells this year, relative to last year. But your deployments have remained pretty steady at around 10,000 a year, over this period. Could you just comment on, whether you're seeing a bigger proportion of node with millimeter-wave applications in your backlog now, than maybe we were six months ago or a year ago? And are you getting the sense that your backlog volumes will, at some point, increase enough to build up to 15,000 nodes annually, which is what you've sort of aspired to a couple of years ago? Or are you more of the sense that you've reached a steady-state building around 10,000 nodes for the foreseeable future? Thank you.
Jay Brown:
Yes, I think, as I was trying to reference in my comments, I think whether it's industry estimates or the carrier commentary, it would look like there are a number of signs of future growth of accelerating growth in small cells over the coming years. And I would just -- stepping back away from the specifics of it, but just looking broadly at what happened in our industry, whenever there has been a period of time where there was spectrum available, carriers who own that spectrum and had the capital to actually be able to invest to deploy that spectrum and then devices in the hands of consumers that could actually use that spectrum, those three things -- when those three things come together, it's really good to be an infrastructure provider. And as I look at the millimeter-wave in particular, that spectrum, I believe that is more suited toward the deployment of small cells than it is macro site. And the convergence of those three things sets up an environment and a tailwind to the business. But I think it's going to play out over time and go really well for us and anybody else in the third-party provision of small cells. So, I think the overall pie is growing because of those drivers of spectrum, capital and the availability of devices to use that spectrum band and I think our business is sitting right in the heart of that. And so, in my mind, it's not a question of if this is going to happen, if there are going to be small cells that are going to end up on the fiber, it's really more a question of when will it happen. And I think, as I referenced earlier in the conversations that we're having with carriers, really encouraging conversations around their deployment plans both in the near and longer term. And I think that sets up well for the underlying assumptions that we have that when we build these systems, we'll be able to add one tenant in addition to the anchor build over a 10-year period of time. And a lot of the questions that you're asking there and the commentary that I made in my prepared remarks about millimeter wave, that's really to the upside of how we thought about and assessed kind of the investment of capital. So, certainly, we see an environment where there could be an acceleration and we think we would benefit from that. I think the business sits right in the heart of a massive trend of growth that's going to happen in the U.S. over the coming decade.
Spencer Kurn:
Awesome. Thank you.
Jay Brown:
We will take two more questions given the time.
Operator:
Thank you. We'll take our next question from Ric Prentiss of Raymond James. Please go ahead.
Ric Prentiss:
Thanks. Good morning, guys. And great [Indiscernible] that was really a good gain. Nice to see also the dividend increase. A couple of questions here. I want to come back to Colby's, Jay, can you tell us how many nodes being won around third quarter? Did you go up from about 45,000 in the third quarter?
Dan Schlanger:
Yes Ric, what I would say right now is, there's probably a little less than 50,000 on-air. It did go up. It went up in line with what we would have expected. So, we're on track to what we thought was going to happen, as Jay pointed out, going from 40,000 at the beginning of the year to 50,000 at the end of the year. But, yes, we put some on air, just like what we expected. And so, we weren't -- our commentary last quarter was a little more than 45,000. We'd say now it's a little less than 50,000.
Ric Prentiss:
Okay. And I appreciate your comments earlier talking about capital intensity is down. It looks like also prepaid rent received is going to be up. So, gross CapEx is down, looks like net CapEx goes down even more. How should we think about what happens to prepaid -- amortization of prepaid rent, a non-cash item? It looks like that went up maybe $60-plus million from 2019 to 2020. Are you thinking it might go up another $50 million now in 2021 that non-cash amortization?
Dan Schlanger:
Yes, that's exactly right, Ric. You got all those numbers right about $60 million growth in prepaid in 2020 and we have about $50 million growth in prepaid going into 2021.
Ric Prentiss:
Okay. And the final one for me. In terms of the investment in there, on the sustaining CapEx side, you guys were able to take out about $25 million in the 2020 guidance on the update here and 2021 guidance is for midpoint I think about $99 million. How should we think about that long-term because in 2018 and 2019, it was over $100 million and $115 million? How should we think about sustaining -- how were you able to take sustaining CapEx out and how should we think about long-term trend in that?
Dan Schlanger:
Yes, I think I'll take that reverse, a long-term trend is in that $90 million to $120 million range is what we would expect sustaining CapEx to be. How we can take that out is, we can be very diligent about how we care for our assets and try to run the business as efficiently as we possibly can in any given period. But over time, there is some sustaining capital that is required to maintain the asset, as you know. It's a pretty low number, $100 million-ish on the capital base that we have is a low number, and it should be in that ballpark. But in any given one period, we can get really creative in how we think about that, and what we wanted to do is to make sure we're delivering is the best AFFO growth we possibly could both in 2020 and in 2021, and that's what you're seeing on the sustaining number.
Ric Prentiss:
Great. Thanks, guys. Have a good day.
Dan Schlanger:
Thanks, Ric. You too.
Operator:
We can now take our final question from Nick Del Deo, MoffettNathanson. Please go ahead.
Nick Del Deo:
Hi. Thanks for putting me in. Maybe to build on some of the prior small cell questions and ask it a different way. But you noted the customer conversations regarding small cells are very encouraging. But it's been a while since you've had a real strong small cell bookings number to report. For how long would that sort of dichotomy have to persist before we conclude, OK? Maybe it's not just lumpiness in bookings, maybe there's something else going on? Like if we go another year without the backlog being replenished maybe that change your confidence level in the outlook?
Jay Brown:
Yeah. I think obviously we look at a number of different factors as we think about the commentary that we made and the growing environment and opportunity around the small cell side. I think that business is going to be more forever by a lumpy and chunky awarding of small cells. It's very different than the tower business in terms of the way the customers award small cells. They're generally done on a market-by-market basis or at least a significant portion of a sub-market. And in the tower business, the assets are generally leased one at a time, and that's not the way small cells work. So, I think, Nick, I would not look at the lumpiness and chunkiness of it, as anything other than just have look at the nature of the business and I think it will stay that way. And as I mentioned, the tone of the conversations privately is really encouraging, but I don't think that's the only thing that's encouraging. As I look at the broader landscape, the public commentary that carriers are making around the need for small cells and the deployment of the small cells. And then, as I look on the innovation front in terms of -- as I mentioned in my comments around what Apple is doing, that is a significant amount of network deployment that's coming in order to make those devices work to the fullest extent that they intend. And our business sits right in the middle of that, and I think we'll benefit from it as the investment lines up with the use cases and the deployment of that spectrum.
Nick Del Deo:
Okay. Would you characterize the tone of the conversations as being comparable to maybe back in 2018 when you signed a bunch of big deals?
Jay Brown:
I think it's always difficult to compare the nature of conversations. In 2018, there was a different scale of opportunity to what there is today. So, I think in 2018, we would have looked at it and said, we're seeing early signs as a result of some of the awards, but probably not the total addressable market starting to materialize in the same way that we are today. So, today, the scale and opportunity that's out there because of the number of nodes with the carriers need, is much larger in terms of scale than what it was in 2018. That's the total addressable market. And then, the conversation that we're having around, back to my previous comments around, what fits our investment criteria. That would be a smaller subset of the totality of the conversation and what's available in the market and what we think fits our strategy and fits the assets that we have. So, I would indicate that the scale of the conversations today is much larger than what it would have been in 2018.
Nick Del Deo:
Okay, got it. Thanks, Jay.
Jay Brown:
You bet.
Jay Brown:
Okay. Well, thanks everybody for joining the call this morning. I know there were a few folks that we weren't able to get to, feel free to follow-up with us today. We're happy to get back to you and try to answer the questions. And we look forward to talking to you next quarter. Thanks so much. Bye-bye.
Operator:
This concludes today’s call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Good day, everyone, and welcome to the Crown Castle Q2 2020 Earnings Call. Today's conference is being recorded. And at this time, I'd like to turn the conference over to Ben Lowe. Please go ahead.
Ben Lowe:
Thank you, Vicki, and good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us today as we review our second quarter 2020 results. With me on the call this morning are Jay Brown, Crown Castle's Chief Executive Officer; and Dan Schlanger, Crown Castle's Chief Financial Officer. To aid the discussion, we have posted supplemental materials in the Investors section of our website at crowncastle.com, which we will refer to throughout the call this morning. This conference call will contain forward-looking statements and discussions of hypothetical scenarios, which are subject to certain risks, uncertainties and assumptions, and actual results may vary materially from those projected or presented during this call. Information about potential factors, which could affect our results, is available in the press release and the Risk Factors sections of the company's SEC filings. Our statements are made as of today, July 30, 2020, and we assume no obligation to update any forward-looking statements. In addition, today's call includes discussions of certain non-GAAP financial measures. Tables reconciling these non-GAAP financial measures are available in the supplemental information package in the Investors section of the company's website at crowncastle.com. So with that, let me turn the call over to Jay.
Jay Brown:
Thanks, Ben, and thank you everyone for joining us on the call this morning. As you saw from our results, we delivered another quarter of positive results that were in line with our expectations. And we maintained our guidance for 2020 growth and AFFO per share of 7% to 8%, consistent with our long-term growth expectations. I believe our strategy and unmatched portfolio of more than 40,000 towers and approximately 80,000 route miles of fiber, concentrated in the top US markets, have positioned Crown Castle to generate growth in cash flows and dividends per share, both in the near term and for years to come. Following an industry slowdown in tower activity late last year, we were seeing activity on towers begin to increase, and we continue to anticipate a significant step-up in industry activity in the second half of this year as our carrier customers invest to improve their existing networks and as 5G starts to ramp. While the full rebound in activity on towers is occurring a little bit slower than we've previously expected, we remain on track to generate at least 7% growth in AFFO per share and see potential for our AFFO per share growth to be above our expected 7% to 8% target going into next year. Dan will discuss the results and our expectations for the balance of 2020 in a bit more detail. So I want to focus my comments this morning on our strategy to maximize long-term shareholder value while delivering attractive short-term returns. As many of you know, shareholder engagement has always been a priority as we continue to execute on our strategy. Over the last several weeks, we have engaged in productive conversations with many of our shareholders, and I very much appreciate the feedback we received and the thoughtful exchange of ideas during those discussions. Through those interactions, we heard broad support for our overall strategy, including our continued investment in towers, small cells and fiber and our overall approach to capital allocation and our dividend policy. We also heard that you, as owners of the business, are looking for more visibility into how our strategy is performing. And with that in mind, we've taken steps this quarter to increase the disclosure around our small cells and fiber strategy. We look forward to hearing your feedback about the additional information provided and welcome ideas for other disclosure we should consider going forward. Turning to our strategy to maximize long-term shareholder value, we believe we have positioned the company with the right assets in the right markets with leading capabilities to deliver value to our customers and generate shareholder returns for years to come. Focusing on slide 3, we have invested nearly $40 billion in shared infrastructure assets that we believe are mission-critical for today's wireless network and sit in front of what is expected to be a massive decade-long investment by our customers to create the next generation of wireless networks. As you can see, our tower and fiber investments are at two different stages of development and maturity. Our tower investment began more than 20 years ago when we built and acquired assets that we could share across multiple customers, providing a lower cost to each customer while generating compelling returns for our shareholders over time as we leased up those assets. As we have proven out the value proposition for our customers over time, we have leased up our tower assets, so they now generate a yield on invested capital of approximately 10%. More recently, we realized that wireless network architecture would need to evolve with 4G, requiring a network of cell sites that would be much denser and closer to the end users. With that in mind, we expanded our shared infrastructure offering beyond towers by building the industry-leading small cell business in the US. Because small cells really developed during the 4G investment cycle, we are much earlier on when it comes to our small cell and fiber investments, with approximately 90% of the approximately $14 billion of invested capital having been deployed in the last 5 years. Given the immaturity of these investments, it's encouraging that the business is already generating a current yield on invested capital of more than 7%. As you can see on slide 4, the extension of our strategy into small cells was based on how similar the two business models are. Both small cells and towers have the same underlying demand driver of wireless data growth and the same core customers. They both have a high initial cost that is ultimately shared across multiple customers that lowers the capital and ongoing operating costs to those customers while generating returns for shareholders through the long-term lease up of those assets. They both have 10-year initial contract terms with escalators that meet or exceed annual churn rates, and they have similar barriers to entry. On the tower side, the strategy has created significant value for shareholders and still has a long runway of growth as we believe towers remain the most cost-effective way to deploy spectrum, making them critical to next-generation wireless networks. As you can see on slide 5, the returns and ultimate value realization for towers has taken decades to play out. We started with initial returns in towers of approximately 3% and grew those yields to nearly 9% over 6 years as we increased the tenancy and cash flows on a largely static asset base. We then had the opportunity to double down on our investment strategy, which diluted the overall yields to approximately 7% as we added less mature assets to the portfolio and it took us another five years to get back to the more than 9% yield. As the business model and strategy continue to prove out, we decided to double down again with the T-Mobile and AT&T tower acquisitions, once again, diluting the consolidated yield as we nearly doubled our tower asset base by adding less mature assets that came with a lower initial return. Once again, it took us about six years to return to 9% yields on the overall portfolio. In all it has taken us 20 years to move our returns from 3% to the 10% levels we see today. As I reflect on my 20-plus years here at Crown Castle having lived through this journey with our shareholders, there are several important observations when I look at this slide. First, what is largely taken for granted today by most investors that the U.S. tower business is one of the best business models ever was not a widely held view in the earlier years of development. Even as we were proving out the business by adding several hundred basis points of yield to the early investments, I can remember answering questions about the long-term return potential of the business, the negative free cash flow profile and when or if we would -- that would inflect and the potential negative impact of carrier consolidation just to name a few. Second, the increase in yields occurred over a long period of time and only when we maintained a static asset base. However, if at any point we had stopped investing in new assets to focus on driving the yields up, we would have missed out on significant value creation. Although similar to our tower investment profile, we expect small cells will have a different yield progression since we are making organic investments to construct less mature small cell assets, as opposed to purchasing tower assets which should result in a more gradual increase in returns as opposed to the large ups and downs you see on this page related to towers. And third, a significant portion of the ultimate value realization from towers came much later once there was little to no remaining debate in the market about how good the U.S. tower business actually is. The significant multiple expansion seen on this slide is a good indication of how that debate was ultimately decided over a long period of time. Turning to our small cell and fiber strategy. We are generating a 7% yield on approximately $14 billion of invested capital today. We have legged into our small cell and fiber investment over the last decade concentrated as I mentioned before in the last five years as our conviction in the value creation opportunity increase, including seeing returns on early investments increase as we co-locate new small cell customers on existing fiber assets. As I mentioned earlier, we expect the yield on invested capital and fiber to have a more gradual increase over time relative to what we've experienced with towers as we make additional organic investments in new small cell and fiber assets. To give additional visibility into how our organic investments are progressing on slide 6 we've identified five markets that we will discuss today in greater detail and we'll update on an annual basis during our second quarter call. These five markets should provide a helpful representation of how our overall strategy is performing over time given how different these markets are when it comes to the scale of the investment, the revenue mix between small cells and fiber solutions, the node density and the contribution from acquisitions. Let me make a few observations within these markets, I would like to draw to your attention. Los Angeles provides an important proof point that increases our confidence that our strategy is working. More than 70% of the invested capital is associated with several acquisitions including NextG, Sunesys and Wilcon at an initial return of less than 6%. Since that time we have added more than 200 basis points of yield to the overall invested capital base by adding customers and cash flow to the nearly 7,000 route miles of fiber with most of the growth coming from adding small cell customers. The returns in Philadelphia are also encouraging with a current yield of approximately 10% as a result of combining fiber solutions and small cells on the same assets, which gives us a great opportunity to meaningfully increase returns as we continue to add small cells to the fiber over time. Although the nodes per mile is the highest in Denver, the majority of the investment in activity to-date has been for anchor small cell customers. The 5.5% yield is lower than we would typically expect from small cell anchor builds due to some higher costs that we incurred during construction which were beyond what we had initially estimated. Looking at Phoenix, the nearly 12% return is higher than we would typically expect with a node density of just two nodes per mile, which is primarily driven by a combination of some co-location that has occurred in the market as well as the contribution from small cell venues. And to the last market on the page, we believe Orlando is a key market to review. The very first investment we made around our small cell strategy was in Orlando more than a decade ago. We built this initial system for one carrier and we're able to subsequently lease it up to other carriers over time. This initial system has also benefited from both amendments and increased density for evolving technologies. We think Orlando provides a clear example of what a fully leased-up or stabilized market can look like The capital we invested now yields nearly 20%, which is where we believe all markets can get with the level of lease up we think is possible in the future. Again we think it will be helpful for you to see how these markets develop over time. So we plan to revisit these same markets each year to give you visibility into how their returns and operating performance evolve. Some of these markets will likely show yields increasing over time as we co-locate additional nodes on existing fiber, while others may show decreasing yields for a period of time as we expand our fiber footprint mainly growing outside of the urban cores to cover the entire market where small cells may be. Zooming back out, we believe our small cell and fiber strategy provides a compelling risk reward opportunity for our shareholders. As you can see on slide 7 with 30% to 40% anticipated annual growth in data demand from current 4G applications and the additional demand that we expect to be generated by the deployment of 5G networks, we believe the long-term addressable market for small cells will be very significant. Based on industry estimates, the total number of small cells on air in the U.S. could be over one million by 2024. And we don't think it stops there. As a reminder our base case underwriting has always assumed, we add one additional tenant equivalent at 4G densities of approximately two to three nodes per mile over a 10-year period. And we believe 5G has the potential to drive network densities well beyond our underwriting assumptions. Considering the combination of 5G network requirements and the higher spectrum bands that will be available to meet future mobile demand, we believe node densities approaching 20 nodes per mile could represent an achievable upside scenario longer term. Slide 8, helps to illustrate just how compelling the risk reward opportunity could be for our small cell strategy, all other factors being held constant. The purple line on this graph is an illustrative representation of possible total shareholder value in 10 years with the only major change in the assumptions being no densities increasing as you move from left to right on the chart. The light green shaded area on the chart, illustrates where we could be on that curve if we sustain the current growth profile of the business, which we believe we can achieve based on 4G densities. We believe the value for shareholders could potentially be two times higher based on these assumptions. As small cell densities increase moving left to right, you can see our -- the potential our small cell strategy could result in the value for shareholders being four times higher in 10 years, even with only seven nodes per mile on average. As we just went over, we believe ultimate 5G densities could be significantly higher than that, potentially approaching upwards of 20 nodes per mile over the long-term. Going the other direction, if the current volume and mix of small cell co-location activity do not increase from current levels and fiber solutions growth were to decelerate; we believe the potential downside is fairly muted as shown on the graph when compared to the potential upside. Similar to when we made our first investments in tower assets, nobody can predict exactly how these things are going to play out over the next two decades. In any case though, we believe that having the right shared communication infrastructure assets in the midst of significant wireless data growth that is driving network investment can lead to tremendous yields on invested capital. With small cells being that infrastructure asset, we are excited when we assess the potential upside in proportion to the potential downside. We see limited risk and huge potential reward, which increases our conviction that this is the right strategy to pursue. So to wrap-up, we believe that our strategy to maximize long-term shareholder value is compelling and straightforward. We are 100% levered to the largest and best market in the world for owning communications infrastructure assets. We are positioned to enable and benefit from the wave of investment our customers are expected to make over the next decade to build out 5G and meet the growing demand for wireless data. We are investing for the future. While delivering a compelling near to medium-term total return with a high-quality dividend, we expect to grow 7% to 8% per year, and we believe our strategy offers shareholders significantly potential more upside than downside. And with that, I'll turn the call over to Dan.
Dan Schlanger:
Thanks, Jay, and good morning, everyone. We delivered another quarter of positive results that were in line with our expectations; reflect the resilience of our business during this period of unprecedented uncertainty in the broader economy. We are seeing activity on towers begin to increase and we continue to anticipate a significant step-up in industry activity in the second half of this year as our carrier customers invest to improve their existing networks and as 5G investments start to ramp. However, the full rebound in activity on towers is occurring a bit slower than we previously expected, which could impact our expected service margin contribution during the remainder of 2020. Despite the potential for some tower activity to occur later in the year or even potentially flip into 2021, we remain on track to generate at least 7% growth in AFFO per share this year. Because we see the situation as a delay and not a reduction in activity, we believe there is the potential that AFFO per share growth will improve and be above our 7% to 8% per year growth target as we move into next year. Turning to Slide 9 of the earnings presentation. We experienced another quarter of strong top line results that included 5.6% growth in the organic contribution to site rental revenues, driven by 9.4% growth from new leasing activity and contracted tenant escalations, net of approximately 3.8% from tenant non-renewals. The revenue growth was offset by lower services contribution compared to the same period last year, resulting in more modest growth in adjusted EBITDA and AFFO per share. The lower services contribution was in line with our expectations and tied to the slowdown in tower activity that began in the fourth quarter of last year and carried through the first half of this year. As I mentioned, we anticipate a significant increase in industry activity in the second half of this year as all our carrier customers invest to improve their existing networks and as 5G investments begin to ramp. Turning to page 10. We are maintaining our full year outlook for 2020. At the midpoint, this represents approximately 5% growth in site rental revenue, 6% growth in adjusted EBITDA, and 9% growth in AFFO year-over-year, compared to 2019 and includes approximately 6% growth year-over-year in organic contribution to site rental revenues. Focusing on investment activities. During the second quarter, capital expenditures totaled $414 million, including $24 million of sustaining expenditures and $383 million of discretionary capital investments across fiber, towers and small cells. Additionally, we returned significant capital to our shareholders during the first quarter with our quarterly common stock dividend totaling approximately $500 million or $1.20 per share, representing growth of approximately 7% on a per share basis compared to the same period a year ago. We were active on the financing front during the quarter meaningfully improving our financial flexibility by opportunistically raising $3.75 billion in senior unsecured notes across two separate offerings, with a weighted average maturity in coupon of approximately 17 years and 2.8% to refinance existing debt. Following those refinancing transactions, we have nearly $5 billion of undrawn capacity on our revolving credit facility and no meaningful maturities until 2022. In addition, we finished the quarter at 5.6 times debt to adjusted EBITDA. We remain committed to our investment-grade credit rating and anticipate a glide path back to our target leverage of approximately five times by the end of 2020 based on the expected EBITDA growth through the year. Finally, I wanted to make sure you saw that we included some additional disclosures in our segment reporting in our press release and in the supplemental earnings materials we posted to our website. During the recent shareholder engagement Jay mentioned earlier, we received feedback that it would be helpful if we provided more visibility into the composition of our fiber segment. With that in mind, starting this quarter and going forward, we are providing a breakdown of our fiber segment revenues between small cells and fiber solutions as well as additional details around the composition of revenue within the fiber solutions business line. As you can see for this quarter, our fiber solutions business grew 3% over the same quarter in 2019 and our small cell business grew 17%, both in line with our expectations. We have also provided return metrics both by segment and for the consolidated business in our supplemental earnings materials. We hope this additional disclosure aids in your ability to analyze our business going forward. So to wrap up, our second quarter results were in line with our expectations and we believe we remain well positioned to generate at least 7% growth in AFFO per share in 2020 with the potential for growth to improve next year. Looking further out, we believe our ability to offer towers, small cells and fiber solutions which are all integral components of communications networks provides us the best opportunity to generate significant growth while delivering high returns for our shareholders. With that, let me turn the call back over to Jay.
Jay Brown:
Well before we take questions, I wanted to speak to the separate press release we issued yesterday. We heard your desire for us to enhance our corporate governance and have outlined the enhancements our Board is making on this front, including instituting a mandatory Board retirement policy. Specifically, the Board began a process two years ago, focused on near-term refreshment to advance its objective of adding highly qualified independent diverse individuals with relevant experience and expertise to oversee our strategic execution and continued value creation. The Board has determined to phase in the implementation of the mandatory retirement policy to provide a transition period for the five current Crown Castle directors, who are over the age of 72. This phased implementation will result in three of our current directors not being renominated for election in May 2021 and an additional two current directors not being renominated for election in May 2022 at our annual meetings of shareholders. The collective advice, oversight and wisdom of these directors have been significant drivers in the creation of Crown Castle's unmatched portfolio of towers, small cells and fiber. On a personal level, I'm grateful to these directors for their mentorship, their support and their friendship throughout my career here at Crown Castle. There is no way we could have executed on our strategy that has created so much shareholder value over the last 20 years without their leadership. On behalf of all of our shareholders, I'd like to thank them for their tireless work in helping to create what Crown Castle is today. The Board has hired a leading search firm to assist with its search for independent directors who bring the right mix of skills, diversity and relevant experience to help our Board further drive sustained value creation. Also, as noted in the press release, the Board is committed to reviewing the company's executive compensation program to ensure it continues to align with the interest of all our shareholders and industry best practices. We are certainly grateful for the feedback our shareholders have provided for us on our corporate governance and believe these actions demonstrate our Board's desire to be responsive to that feedback. And with that Vicki, I'd like to open the call for questions.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] And we will take our first question today from Simon Flannery with Morgan Stanley.
Simon Flannery:
Great. Thank you, very much, good morning and thanks for all the additional disclosure. Two if I may. One on fiber solutions. Could you just talk about the activity in the business? It looks like still growing around that 3%. Any impacts you're seeing from COVID? And then, on the return point on the small cell, perhaps it would be helpful if you could just go through your capital budgeting process and how you think about setting your CapEx plans and your return hurdles just to put that through the filter to get those sort of long-term targets? Any sense on that process would be great.
Jay Brown:
Sure Simon. Good morning. On your first question around the fiber business, similar to what we talked about last quarter. As you can see from the disclosure, the majority of our customers are carriers and large enterprise, specifically in the financial, health care and education sectors. So, we have seen very little to no impact from COVID in the business there. It hasn't impacted either the gross revenue growth or churn. So, things have basically come in where we expected them to. In total in the business less than 5% of the revenues are coming from small or medium businesses. There are -- as I mentioned last quarter, we have had some customers request the delay in installation of new services that they've limited access to their facilities. But that hasn't really had any material impact. So, there's no change to our overall guidance, no change to the revenue growth or churn profiles there on the fiber side. In terms of our return process, how we go about allocating capital internally, we have a really rigorous process that we go through for each of the investments that we make. And some of the materials that we're laying out here this morning of showing co-location and returns over time are things that we've looked at historically to evaluate different markets and how carrier behavior looks. And given obviously the nature of the business, because we're putting up a significant amount of initial capital, one of the things that's most important to that evaluation is what do we think the future demand for the asset will be. So as we noted on the fourth page there, you can see the returns, initially when we go and build an initial system, generally we're investing that capital somewhere in the neighborhood of about a 6% to 7% initial yield on invested capital. So the first thing we look at is are the terms in line with that expectation. And then it really comes down to an evaluation of what we think the future growth around those assets will be. As you've heard us talk about, we're primarily focused in the top markets in the U.S. We think that is where the preponderance of the capital will go both our capital as well as the carrier investment as the networks densify and move towards 5G. And we think that sets us up for – long term, sets us up for terrific returns in the business in order to deliver great returns for shareholders. So it's a combination of making sure we get the terms right out of the gate financially and then assessing what we think the future lease-up is going to be. And last thing I would just say on this point. We're in this business because we think it generates a lot of returns for shareholders over a long period of time. And there are plenty of RFPs in the market that so far and I think this will continue to be the case, where we decide not to participate because either we think the economics aren't appropriate out of the gate, where we think the potential for lease-up and long-term economics just don't make sense and don't make the business look like a tower business ultimately. So that's the framework through which we're evaluating our capital investments and plan to continue on that path.
Simon Flannery:
Great. Thank you. Very helpful.
Operator:
Next is David Barden with Bank of America.
David Barden:
Hey, guys. Thanks so much for taking the question. So Dan I guess, the first one is on the guidance. Looking at the first half versus the second half, the math implies a pretty substantial acceleration in EBITDA just to get to the low end, let's just say, roughly 7% sequentially accelerated from the 2% we saw in 1Q. And then when you look at what that math implies, you kind of land it around 9.5 or so for the fourth quarter EBITDA that we annualize that over the low end and all of a sudden growth is accelerating to the 9% level in 2021. So could you kind of help us understand kind of where that conviction that you can kind of see this acceleration comes from? That's the first question. And then I guess the second question Jay, thank you again, I think that everyone's going to welcome the additional disclosures here. You've kind of historically talked about carrier self-perform as the biggest competitor in the marketplace. Could you talk about how as you think about the pan, as carriers are building out their own facilities in markets that kind of erodes the opportunity to get colocation in those markets. So how big is this opportunity for you as you think about it from a capital budgeting standpoint? Thank you.
Dan Schlanger:
Sure. I'll take the first question. Thanks, David. On the guidance, as you pointed out, there is a significant ramp from the first half to second half. And we've been talking about that since we gave our outlook and certainly said that when we were talking through the first quarter. We have seen an increase in activity as we indicated, as Jay and I talked about in our prepared remarks. And we think that it is leading to what we see as a significant ramp in activity and ultimately our cash flows and EBITDA generation going into the second half. But as you pointed out, it is a pretty big ramp. We've seen the beginnings of all of those activity and those applications coming in. But as we talked about they pushed out a little bit from what we expected. So we do think that we'll likely be on the lower end of our guidance. But what it does show and what we were alluding to a few times too was that if that comes to be and filters through the way we expect it to that we see a lot of that momentum going into 2021. And when we give our guidance next quarter, we'll confirm what we think that will ultimately be and how that will play out and what it will look like going forward but we think there's a chance that it is going to be above our 7% to 8% longer-term growth rate target. So we feel good about the activity levels around the business right now, even if they are just happening a little bit later than what we would have expected when we started and gave guidance in October.
Jay Brown:
On your second question Dave, around the carrier self-perform and the impacts to the business, first thing I think I would start with is just sort of fundamental to the product offering that we have to the carriers. We're providing a low-cost solution to the carriers. And as has been proven out with towers over a long period of time, the carriers are thoughtful about how to lower their overall cost of network. And they have moved to a shared solution on the tower side because that's the lowest cost for deploying the network. We believe the exact same thing is going to happen with small cells. In fact, the solution that we're offering to carriers is basically 50% reduction in their overall costs over time, as them owning it themselves. And over time they've proven to be thoughtful allocators and diligent around costs and we think they'll come to us as a result of being able to save meaningfully on the network deployment side. That also means though that we're not going to do it all. And so when I look at the carriers self-perform and the comments that they've made about their need to deploy and build their own small cells, the reality is we will not be able to offer or have an interest in offering a shared solution everywhere in the U.S. that small cells are needed. Our strategy has been pretty clear from the beginning that we're focused on the top markets in the U.S. and dense urban and suburban areas, where we think there's going to be significant co-location over time. And that doesn't mean we're going to build fiber everywhere for the carriers. So there are going to be places where they need to build it in order to provide to us as consumers a ubiquitous solution. As I look at the total addressable market, where our fiber is going, I believe we're in a sweet spot thereof. We're likely putting this capital based on what we believe will happen over a long period of time in the places that are going to have a disproportionate amount of future demand for small cells. So as we've shown in the fiber markets laid out on the page there, so far we've been able to allocate that capital into places where there is – has been future colocation and we think there will be plenty of addressable market in the future to continue to drive those returns and achieve really attractive outcomes for shareholders. On the last point around capital budget, one of the benefits of this business is you get long visibility. Whenever we commit to customers that we're going to go out and build nodes for them there's about a two-to three-year build cycle. And so you can look at the nodes that we have in process as a proxy for what capital deployment is going to be for the next two to three years because we've made those commitments to customers at that point once we've signed up the nodes. So one way and we talk about this every quarter of kind of the total pipeline and Dan walked through it in his comments, if that pipeline starts to change then there could be a point where it goes up or down relative to overall demand. But that gives you quite a bit of lead time in terms of what we think capital spending is going to look like.
David Barden:
Okay. Great. Thank you there.
Operator:
Our next question will come from Phil Cusick with JPMorgan. Please go ahead.
Phil Cusick:
Hi, guys. Thanks. Can we just dig a little bit into that slower ramping activity? Is there any of this do you think due to COVID at the municipal level? Or is this more carrier demand not getting started as quickly as you expected? And has there been any inflection there as we've come into July? And then second, Jay, if we can go back to that one million small cells like 2024 that you mentioned. Remind me where you are now and what the pace of carrier conversations look like? You haven't announced a major new small cell award in quite a while. And given the long build cycle I don't know how we get to a that big of a number by 2024 without a pretty big ramp near-term? Thanks.
Jay Brown:
Yes. On the first question I think we've talked about this going all the way back to October of last year when we first gave the guidance. It's very difficult to be super perfect as to when inflection points and activity happen in the business. And given that this is a recurring business once we sign up the lease it stays for a very long period of time. It becomes less important to be to figure out exactly which quarter a certain lease ends up in. And I would describe the activity and the pushout as nothing other than slightly different than what we anticipated when we gave the guidance in October of 2019. But in terms of overall activity and what the carriers are focused on and I think this is reflective of the statements that they've made -- they've been making publicly, we see no change in behavior activity long-term that has any meaningful impact into our long-term growth rates around towers or small cells. So we think it's purely just timing. And as Dan mentioned in his comments where that is most pronounced in our numbers is not really in the recurring components of the business but in the services component of the business where we do some preconstruction work for the carriers. And depending on when that hits if it slides into 2021 then obviously, we don't get the benefit this year. So more so around that preconstruction work on the services side and no real change in activity from the -- from our expectations of what the carriers will do just a slight change in timing. On your second question around the awards of small cells. Our experience has been over time that the carriers award small cell nodes in large bulks. And this is very different than kind of the tower historical experience where towers are leased one single tower at a time. And it's very rare in the tower business to have an entire market deployed at one time. But because of the nature of small cells being integrated and connected with fiber, they tend to look at either entire markets or large sections of a market and we've won awards on that basis. So -- and we've continued to win awards and the total number of nodes has continued to go up but we haven't signed any major ones in the last couple of quarters. We don't view that as a change in the business. We think it's just reflective of kind of the natural timing and ebb and flow that we'll see over time. So I don't -- I think we will continue to see some lumpiness in that and the tower business may be a little steadier in terms of the way leases are signed but there's just a little bit of difference in terms of how the carriers think about those network deployments.
Phil Cusick:
Yes. It's just that one million in four years is a pretty big delta from what are several hundred thousand industry today. It sounds like there may be conversations about future rewards happening at least if not those awards coming anytime soon?
Jay Brown:
Well I think there is no question that from the comments that we're making as well as industry estimates as well as what the carriers are thinking that we believe we're right on the doorstep of a significant increase in this activity over the coming years. And I think all of the industry estimates would suggest that that ramp is coming significantly. I think there's probably some debate today as to how many actual small cells there are on air. So the math there would put the total small cells on air north of 200,000 today but growing to one million over five years which indicates that we're sort of right at the early stage of seeing significant increases over the next coming years.
Phil Cusick:
Thanks.
Operator:
We'll go to Ric Prentiss with Raymond James.
Ric Prentiss:
Thanks. Good morning, guys. First, hope you and your employees are doing okay through COVID-19 difficulties.
Dan Schlanger:
Thanks, Ric.
Ric Prentiss:
I want to again echo thanks for the fiber versus small cell revenue split. We would love to get the third quarter 2019 and fourth quarter 2019 numbers before they actually get reported out in 2020 that would help us. But as you think about disclosure some of the shareholder comments out there had also been what about breaking out maybe a little more disclosure on KPIs such as new lease activity escalators and churn. Do you envision providing those breakdowns at the segment level fiber solutions small cell, tower versus just aggregate?
Dan Schlanger:
Ric, I think what you saw us do is take what we think was a meaningful step in trying to add disclosure to how our strategy is playing out over time. And you can see that what we've given in terms of the revenue of fiber solutions versus small cells versus towers, you can line up to get to what the net growth rates are in each of those businesses. And as we discussed, they're right in line with what we told people had expected. And what we're trying to do is, provide a long-term view of how this business will play out and what to look at over time and how we think about it. And the way we think about it, is really in this type of the market analysis that we went through. And it won't move on a quarter-to-quarter basis. That's why we're going to update it annually to show you kind of what we think is a reasonable estimate or a reasonable expectation of how these things can move over time. It will be very difficult to try to do that on a quarter-to-quarter basis. So what we've done at this point, we believe, gives really good insight into the business and how it is playing out and how we think about it. And we think that that hopefully is sufficient. To the extent that there are other things that investors would like to see, we would absolutely take that feedback and take it into consideration and think through it about whether we want to do that going forward.
Ric Prentiss:
Okay. How about -- can you update us as far as how many nodes are on air or in backlog or what that total is? Or jay you mentioned there's been a couple of nodes, but not many, but it certainly helps if we also know kind of what's happening with the nodes.
Dan Schlanger:
Sure. We're at a little over 45,000 nodes on air and around 25,000 nodes in the pipeline. So, overall, a little more than 70,000 nodes on air in the pipeline. That's not significantly changed from last quarter. So, like, we mentioned, we haven't made significant bookings in the quarter, but we did put some on it.
Ric Prentiss:
Makes sense. And then, Jay, I think, your comment is exactly right to feel about maybe small cells are more lumpy or I'd even call it chunky, versus towers is more consistent. As we think about the next couple of years from the carriers, could there be a little more shifting to macro tower versus small cells, as we see T-Mobile focus on the merger integration of Sprint, the C-band auction comes out and maybe companies like Verizon might want to participate. So the -- I would think one of the other lumpy chunky aspects could be, where carrier CapEx is getting focused on any given year or two over a 10-year period. Is that fair?
Jay Brown:
Yes, I think, that's possible. There will be some movement there. I think, what we'll see as we move into both the end here of 4G densities and into 5G, I think you're going to see a mix of what we've seen historically with the migration from 1G to 2G, two to three and three to four. Across the tower portfolio, I think you're going to see the carriers go through and add the 5G technologies. A lot of that will incur on existing sites. As they think about how to densify the network, we think disproportionately on the densification side, they're going to need to use small cells in order to get to that densification. So, I think each carrier and by market will be making judgments around kind of the increased or upgrading of their network to 5G and using the existing assets to do so, as well as the mix of the necessity to improve and increase the density of the network and that probably goes towards small cells. I think that, we will see some continued lumpiness on that front. I also think that it will not be kind of across the nation the same answer. So as we look at it on a market-by-market basis, depending on the spectrum bands that they have, the capacity inside of those spectrum bands and what they're trying to accomplish, I think, we'll see some pretty significant variation market-by-market as to whether or not the share of wallet is going towards macro sites or small cells.
Dan Schlanger:
And I think, Ric, just one addition to that. One of the reasons we're excited about the position we're in is that, whether the carrier spend tilts towards towers or towards small cells in any given period we are the beneficiary of that. And we think that having a solution-based offering as opposed to a product-based offering of we can help with networks is just a better place to be, as these networks will become more converged and the spending patterns of our customers are going to have to be more nuanced and nimble. And we think we're in a just a really good position to be part of that conversation at a much more meaningful level across the board.
Ric Prentiss:
I guess, it's safe to say, you're not going to put out like five-year plans to different segments of the business?
Dan Schlanger:
No, that's not our intention at this point. Like I said, though, we'll take feedback and understand where people want us to go. What we're trying to do, as I mentioned a second ago is, really provide the type of information that we look at to assess whether the investments we're making are making sense or not. And that's really where we landed is, you're seeing a lot of the information that we look at in order to make sense of what these markets and what these investments are doing. And you'll see that progression over time in a way that I think addresses the underlying question of whether this business is working or not. A five-year plan is obviously very difficult to make happen in a public context. But also it's a set of assumptions that clearly won't come true. They may be directional. And we did those with our guidance and with our 7% to 8% target. So we think we're kind of right in line with what the core ask has been from the feedback and engagement we've got with our investors.
Ric Prentiss:
Yeah. Appreciate it. Stay well, guys.
Dan Schlanger:
Thanks, Ric.
Operator:
Next question is from Colby Synesael with Cowen.
Colby Synesael:
Great. Thank you. Two if I may. First off, I think, your fiber CapEx including small cells and then the fiber solutions business was $1.4 billion in 2019. Can you remind us or tell us what the guide implies your expectations are for that in 2020? Just broadly, how you see that playing out over the next few years? One can make the argument, at least, we potentially made the argument, that given the significant investment in the last five years, you could potentially be in a position to sustain similar types of top line growth in your fiber business, even at lower CapEx profile. I'm just curious how you think about that. And then, secondly, and I apologize for going back to this, but can you give us some color on what your services business looked like in the month of July? And I'm getting a lot of questions and I'm sure other analysts are as well, in terms of just investors really trying to get some more color on how you feel confident in maintaining your guidance for the back half of the year. And whether or not that's evident with what you're already seeing in July? Or does it still assume some significant ramp beyond what you're already seeing, beyond what you're actually having in terms of conversations and it's still somewhat of a hope opposed to real hard conviction? Thank you.
Dan Schlanger:
Yes. Thanks, Colby. On the first question, our guide for 2020 is about $1.2 billion of CapEx in the fiber business for both fiber solutions and small cells or fiber segment. And with your question on lower CapEx to sustain growth, it really is going to be predicated on how much colocation versus anchor builds we can have and whether we're building out additional portions with markets we're in or whether we're leasing up on the markets that we already have. And you can see that in some of our market analysis something like Los Angeles where we're actually adding a significant amount of yield, 230 basis points of yield over the 3.7 years that we've had these assets and a lot from the acquisition from the time of acquisition until now. That's more because of the co-location that's happening. And if we do that, yes, CapEx will come down. If we continue to build out markets, which we think as Jay pointed out is a good investment as long as they continue to meet our investment hurdles and the lease-up we believe is a reasonable assumption going forward then that -- the CapEx intensity may be where it is now for a period of time. But much like the tower business, once we maintain a stable asset base and slow down that capital, we believe that is when the yields will expand significantly. It's just hard to tell from where we sit today when that might happen. Given the substantial ramp that we're looking at and what Jay alluded to a minute ago in the 5G build-out of small cells, it's just hard to know if it's going to take a few years or not for that stability in the asset base to happen and how that happens and where it happens at which location. So we'll -- like I said, we'll give guidance in three months about what 2021 will look like. And hopefully that will give another data point to inform what you're thinking on. But yes, there's potential that our growth rate can sustain and we bring CapEx down. There's also potential that our growth rate could expand and then we bring CapEx up depending on the level of activity that we see coming.
Jay Brown:
On your second question Colby around what would we look at when we give the guidance. Certainly, we look at a number of factors. One of those factors is what is our most recent activity. And to your question, we definitely looked at the activity that we saw in July of this year as we consider what we were going to do with our outlook for the full year. We also look at what is our application volume for the year as well as the conversations that we're having with carriers and the activity that appears to be coming. So it's a wholesome look in terms of all of the various factors that one would look at in order to try to figure out where we believe the activity is going to go. And I think in the comments that both Dan and I have made in our call and as you saw in the press release, I think we're trying to point to the fact that we see every indication of an environment where activity and traffic is increasing and being exactly precise as to when that services activity of preconstruction work will show up. We do think it's -- we're going to start to see a meaningful increase in the second half of this year and then carry over into 2021.
Colby Synesael:
Okay. Thank you.
Operator:
And we'll go to Tim Long with Barclays.
Tim Long:
Thank you. Appreciate your time. One question, one follow-up if I could. First, could you just give us a little update on edge compute and you've got the deal with Vapor IO. So any developments there? And any change in outlook? And then secondly on the fiber business. I appreciate those target cities. Probably a difficult one to answer, but could you just give us a little color on how yields are different in markets kind of based on competition of fiber assets? I'm assuming some places are much less competitive and such more so. So what kind of a factor does that play into yields in some of these larger cities? Thank you.
Jay Brown:
You bet. On your first question around edge compute, I mean we continue to see a significant amount of value and opportunity around that network or access edge as we've described it, which really requires a combination of fiber and network integration. And Vapor has -- our investment in Vapor has continued to give us a pretty good view as to where we think the world is headed on that front. We're operational in about four markets today and we're building out a number of other markets. It's not material to our overall results today and I don't expect it will be in the near term, but I do believe edge compute is another example of why as Dan mentioned in one of the questions earlier this combination of providing a network solution to the carrier the combination of towers and fiber gives us a really unique view as to where networks are developing and where the opportunity is. And edge compute is one of those that it's not in our model it's not in our guidance for this year and we're not thinking about necessarily a big impact in 2021. But over time, it's a way of adding additional revenues and cash flow to these assets that are really core to their network. They carry our customer network and we believe there's opportunities that will result in higher yields on the investment that we've made as a result of the wholesome product offering that we have when we're talking with our customers. On the markets, what I would tell you is it's -- from a competition standpoint, we have a very, very high win rate when we have existing fiber in the market. So as we go back and look at RFPs that have been issued by our customers in the markets where we already have existing fiber, we win a very, very, very high percentage of those RFPs as a result of having an asset that's there. That asset being present means that there's a shorter time to deploy for the carriers, which is attractive. And it means the shared solution that I was speaking to in terms of cost savings to the carrier is present. And so the competition doesn't really affect our yields. The discipline that we have around the requirement to be able to invest capital is in place whether the -- regardless of the situation at a market-by-market basis. So if we're able to invest capital in the 6% to 7% initial yield and we think there's significant opportunity in the future and it's the market that we're not in, well then that market is attractive to us and something we would potentially pursue. If those characteristics are not there and that it could be competition or any other number of factors then we may just pass on the RFP as we do frequently. In the places where we do have existing fiber and there's the opportunity to do co-location I think the market analysis shows this and our practice in other places has shown this, we have a very high win rate when those RFPs are rolled out in places where we have existing fiber.
Tim Long:
Thank you.
Operator:
We'll now go to Brett Feldman with Goldman Sachs.
Brett Feldman:
When you originally gave your outlook this year before COVID, you had talked about some of the challenges at gaining the approvals you needed from municipalities and utilities to deploy small cells and so, just kind of limiting you to a maximum of 10000 node deployments per year. I would imagine that COVID hasn't made that any easier. And if you sort of go back and think about the outlook you have for small cells it seems like the funnel could theoretically increase significantly. Are you concerned at all that if these roadblocks aren't knocked down you actually won't be able to accelerate the business as the demand backdrop improves? And then also, do your customers the carriers have any advantages that you don't in terms of being able to move more quickly at a municipal level? Or do you all sort of operate within the same set of processes? Thank you.
Jay Brown:
Yes. On the first question and I know many of our employees listen to our quarterly calls and I've just got to tell you what a tremendous job they have done both on the tower and the fiber side managing through COVID. We have about 1,200 employees who are engaged in operating roles out in the business. And all throughout COVID they have continued to perform at an extraordinarily high level working with municipalities and utilities in order to deploy nodes. And we've had a number of wins even in the midst of COVID. So the day-to-day work -- yes it looks a little different as a result of COVID. But I think I'm so proud of our team, who have not made excuses for the challenges that have arisen as a result of COVID, but have figured out ways to navigate in the new environment. And we don't know how long we're going to be in this environment. So our role and job for our customers is to figure out a way to navigate and get their network on air. And thus far, I think the team has done a tremendous job of that and I have full confidence they'll be able to continue to navigate those challenges. On the customer side, I don't believe there are any advantages that our customers have at the market level working through those utilities and municipalities relative to us. I believe some of the work the FCC has done has set forth some standards and guidelines around pricing and terms that benefit everybody in the market. And obviously our interests are completely aligned with that of our carriers. To the extent that we can get them on air on a lower cost solution than them building against themselves they want us to do well. And the same is true for us in the places where we're not building fiber and they're having to self-perform. It's in both of our best interests to work together to figure out ways to navigate at the local municipality and utility level and we frequently work together in order to accomplish that. So I think there's shared interest rather than a competition on that front. Doing it well goes better for everyone.
Brett Feldman:
Thanks, Jay. And just to clarify it does seem like at least right now in the midst of all this you still have been able to generally meet the deployment goals you've set out earlier this year. Is that fair?
Jay Brown:
No that is fair. That's what we've -- we set the targets ahead of time and we've learned to navigate in the new environment that we're in and believe we can continue to do so.
Brett Feldman:
Thank you.
Operator:
And Michael Rollins with Citi is next.
Michael Rollins:
Hi, thanks. Good morning. A couple of questions. First on the strategic side of the fiber business, can you give us an update on the strategy around market exposure? I think in the past you talked about top 25 markets being the larger focus for the company. I'm curious how that stands today and how you see that evolving over the next few years? And then just a question about some of the new disclosures, so I think we've learned from a lot of the companies that we cover that there are many different ways to define return on capital. And so I'm curious if you could unpack the philosophy within Crown with what you included in the calculation and maybe some of the things that you didn't include in the calculation whether it be SG&A for the fiber solutions business maintenance CapEx or the adjustment to add back I think some labor costs in that fiber return calculation? Thanks.
Jay Brown:
Michael on the first question and I'll take that one and then I'll let Dan take the second one. We are -- as you correctly stated we have been focused and have spent the majority of the capital in the top 30 markets in the U.S. We think that will be the biggest driver of long-term lease up around small cells. And so there's no change in terms of our overall view of where capital continue to go and where we think investment by the carriers will be primarily as we move from 4G into 5G. I certainly believe the carriers are going to be going to markets beyond the top 30 markets and there may be occasions where we choose to make investments and pursue opportunities as we move beyond market -- top 30 markets in the U.S. We'll make those decisions on the same basis that we got us into the top 30 markets in the U.S., that is around what are the initial returns on capital and then what do we think the lease-up opportunities are around that capital over the long term and do they meet our internal hurdles of driving long-term shareholder value. But I think you should expect we'll continue to be mostly focused on kind of those top markets top 30 markets here in the U.S.
Dan Schlanger:
Yes. And Michael on your second question on our return on capital definitions. What we're trying to provide with that is a view of what we think a more normalized return will be over time when we're not investing so heavily in the building out of assets. So what we did is we try to be very clear on these on the calculations. we've done so people can look at them however you want to look at them. But the way we think about it is, what would be our yield on the asset if we were to operate the asset as it is today? And those indirect labor costs which I think is the biggest biggest adjustment we made, are people who are working on building out our fiber assets over time and therefore not part of the ongoing operating cost structure that we think will be required in order to maintain that asset base for the long-term. And we thought that burdening currently the return with what is going on in order to build new assets is not exactly a -- is not representative of what we think the asset is yielding as it sits today. Thinking about it a little differently, it's like including acquisition costs in an ongoing basis. It just doesn't really provide the insight into what the long-term return aspects will be of the business. What we're trying to do in giving all of that detail and in providing the calculation itself is to give away how we think about these things and why we think about these things. They give you the ability to look at it however you want to look at it. So we're again happy to take feedback on this is kind of our shot at what we think is the right way to look at it and how it is internally how we look at it. But, we will be happy to take feedback and think through if there are other ways that more closely align with what investors would like to say.
Michael Rollins:
Thanks.
Operator:
We'll now go to Spencer Kurn with New Street Research.
Spencer Kurn:
Hey. Thanks for taking the question. So I have a question on co-location that you've seen in small cells. You've made it pretty clear that the yields and returns you can generate along small cells are largely a function of node density. And you talked about deploying anchor builds with two to three nodes per mile. But if we look over the last couple of years we haven't really seen those levels of lease up. I think in 2019 you added around one node per new fiber mile. And for the business to really inflect I think, we would need to move towards higher nodes per mile deployed in the future. So, I was just wondering if you could comment on why we haven't really seen the levels of node density for anchor builds at least that you speak to in the reported figures so far?
Jay Brown:
Sure, Spencer. And I think this is where the five markets that we laid out are so helpful, right? Because you can look at Orlando, where we've got 19% recurring cash yield on invested capital and we're at about 2.5 nodes per mile. And then you look at Denver, and we're at 3.8 nodes per mile and we're at a 5.5% yield. So, the metric that you're referencing in terms of density of nodes is an input that we look at and we certainly watch what is our density of node. But we're much more focused on what is the return on invested capital, what's the return on that capital that we've invested and driving that return over time. And as you look at the -- whether it's the whole portfolio, as you look at these individual markets at points in time you're going to see some movement there that if all you zero in on is just one single metric nodes per mile you'll miss the broader picture of what's happening in terms of return and yield. And the way we're negotiating contracts with customers, whether it's co-location or anchor builds, we're negotiating those contracts based on a return on invested capital. So, the metric is interesting. And certainly, it's something we track and we look at but we're much more focused on the financial returns than we are a singular metric around nodes per mile, because it's not necessarily the best predictor. I think you can look at the tower business on the slide where we laid out tenants per tower. And you can see that dynamic playing out in tenants per tower as well where people would say obviously in the tower business you want to watch how many tenants are on each tower and that's the best predictor of returns. And it is a good predictor of returns, but it's not a perfect correlation. You can see in the tower business, we've been able to grow yield on those assets without a direct correlation to a change in tenancy. And I think the same thing has played out thus far in small cells and will continue to play out. So, the driver will be this big wave of demand, which will drive density across -- of nodes per mile. But, we're watching carefully the financial returns and think that's the best predictor of it.
Spencer Kurn:
Got it. Thank you. And just one more question if I may. Big question I get is about small cell pricing upon renewals. And the concern is that unlike a tower we've got very few -- no competition. With fiber you've got competitors pretty close by. And so, I was wondering if you could comment on pricing trends that you've seen around renewals whether you're able to continue escalating the nodes at the original contract rate? Or have you seen any signs of pricing pressure? Thanks.
Jay Brown:
Sure, Spencer. As you can see on the slide, slide 4, when we talk about the escalations and the contractual terms and churn and other things, we've seen no difference in the small cell business relative to towers. As contracts have come up for renewal, they've been renewed at a rate that is in line with where towers are if not a little bit higher. We've seen no roll-off of tenants. And this goes to the critical network nature of these assets. The carriers are putting in these small cells and locations in order to offload traffic off of the macro site in order to improve their network. And just like on macro sites, they're mission-critical to their network. And they're designed in order to help that network perform better. So, as we get to renewal the carriers have invested significantly around the exact location where that node is and have added additional nodes and macro sites in order to provide a solution to the consumer that is ubiquitous. And as they come up for renewal, there's nothing about that renewal that, frankly we think will change the necessity of the location that they've picked, and then design their network around the rest of the network. The other point I would make about small cells and pricing and towers that I think is helpful, and certainly has played itself out as you think about the returns and the yields here. One of the things that our carrier customers have desired as we've gone down the path of small cells is they've desired to put in additional capital upfront beyond just us putting up 100% of the capital as we deploy small cells. And if you look at the math as Dan was walking through earlier in terms of total capital that we'll spend this year of about $1.7 billion and prepaid rent that the carriers put in of about $600 million upfront so on a net basis we're putting in $1.1 billion of capital. In essence you can think about that as each carrier customer goes on they're paying for a third of the infrastructure an upfront capital or some component of that upfront capital which means from a competitive standpoint over time as renewals come up they've already reduced the capital base and therefore the market rent if you will is already embedded in the upfront investment that they've made. So, our assets sitting there -- our net investment of the assets sitting there is at a price well below what a market price would be if someone were to have to go and overbuild it or try to put in new fiber or put in a new small cell. And that dynamic I think also is helpful. I don't believe it's solely the driver historically. I think it's much more like towers in terms of network design. But if you want to do the practical math associated with it and think about how does it play out over time, the entry point for somebody else coming to market we're sitting there with an asset that's priced significantly below what the cost of deploying a new asset there would be. And we think over time that gives even greater strength to the fact that at renewal we'll see very high renewal rates for a long period of time.
Spencer Kurn:
Got it. It’s a great plan. Thanks.
Operator:
Next is Nick Del Deo with MoffettNathanson.
Nick Del Deo:
Hey, thank you for letting me in. I appreciate disclosures and look forward to see how the stats evolve over time. Just having it aside if you're willing to publish the historical data for those five cities for 2018, 2019, I think folks are finding them interesting just we have initial time series to work with. Jay you've emphasized that it's hard to put together a specific long-term fiber forecast. Since the business is in its early stages and there's a wide variety of potential outcomes from here, I think that all makes sense. How do you then judge whether or not the fiber strategy has been a success sort of in a bigger picture sense? Is there some yield that you have in mind five or 10 years out that you'll reflect upon and say yes the strategy worked? Are you saying that it's so past dependent that you can't currently define what's going to count as a good outcome looking ahead?
Jay Brown:
Well, I think the simple measure upon which we measure the entire business is are we growing the dividend which is from a payout standpoint tied to our operating results. Are we growing it in line with the target that we've laid out? Three years ago we told the market as we did the investment in Lightower that we would raise our long-term growth rate from 6% to 7% in terms of dividend and AFFO per share growth on an annual basis. We're going to increase it to 7% to 8%. And over the last three years we've delivered that dividend growth tied directly to operations at the 8% level increasing the dividend by about 26% 27% over that period of time. I think that is the best measure of value over time as to how the business is doing. As we laid out on page eight, Nick, I think this is the way to think about what are the potential value opportunities here around small cells? So, if you believe kind of the total addressable market that we lay out on page seven and the opportunity there to the extent that we capture the fair share of that addressable market across the assets that we own we believe we have an opportunity here to outpace our projected growth rate over a 10-year period of time of 7% to 8% and potentially do much better than that. And conversely if things don't go as well then we've shown some of the downside there. And as we look as that as that -- as we look at that graph and it's something that we've done as we look at -- analyze our own investments and how are we positioning the overall firm, the thing that continually strikes Dan and I about this is how asymmetric the reward versus the risk is here. And we believe the business will play out 4G going into 5G densities and all we've had to underwrite is 4G densities and we've positioned ourselves for significant upside. And as owners of the business we look at this and think this is a great place to be. We're leveraged towards the upside. We're leveraged towards where the world is headed. We're staying relevant with our customers because this is where their networks and their deployments need to go. So we've positioned the company for future growth and we've positioned that growth with limited downside risk if we're wrong. Certainly, we're in the business because we think it will create long-term potential value. If at some point the scenario comes out that that doesn't play itself out then we'll pivot away and make a different decision. But all -- everything that we're seeing as we laid out on this call this morning and this sort of reward versus risk trade we like where the business is positioned and think it gives a lot of optionality to the upside with limited downside risk. And in the -- in between -- between now and the long term how do we measure the performance? The way we measure the performance is what we were showing on the five fiber markets that we laid out. These are the things that we're looking at internally day in and day out. We look at the performance at the market level to see whether or not is the strategy playing out? Are we seeing colocation that's driving yield? And as we look at each of our markets as representative -- as represented by these five markets on the page, we are seeing that and that emboldens the confidence that ultimately if we do it well in the micro, ultimately that will show up in the macro and that leads to sort of an outcome that shows up on page 8.
Nick Del Deo:
Okay. Got it. Thank you, Jay.
Jay Brown:
Okay.
Operator:
We'll go to Batya Levi with UBS.
Batya Levi:
Great. Thank you. A couple of follow-ups. I think the small cell construction CapEx in the quarter was down sequentially slightly, but the nodes you brought down were minimal in the quarter. Can you help us reconcile why there is a difference? And if we should still expect the 10,000 build for the year? And a second question on the revenue per small cell node. It looks like it came down on an annual basis. Is that a function of a lower contribution from prepaid rent? And how should we think about revenue per node for the anchor tenant incremental nodes versus a second tenant that you're adding? Thank you.
Jay Brown:
Yes. On the first question around small cell CapEx, it wouldn't be too tied to quarterly movements around our CapEx. Obviously, we're doing work on nodes that will be turned on in the third quarter and the fourth quarter and subsequent periods. So I don't think that math is going to give you a real good indication of the cost. Our general cost per node has stayed at around that $100,000, including cost of fiber and the real estate cost of building a note and we haven't seen that really changing at the market level. We do believe that we will continue to deploy about 10,000 nodes in calendar year 2020. Your last question there around revenue per node. I think this is one of the things that's helpful about laying out these five markets as you can back into the math around contribution in each of those markets. We price this business on a yield basis. So there's not a -- we're not thinking about it necessarily on a revenue per node. We think about it as a return per node or a yield on a dollar of invested capital. So the pricing is going to be determined market-by-market or quarter-by-quarter if you were laying out the numbers there are going to be determined based on where do we turn nodes on, and what was the underlying costs associated with building those nodes and that will impact our revenue per node. So, revenue per node is not a metric that I would point you towards as being indicative of how the business is performing, better off looking at how yields on invested capital are going.
Batya Levi:
Okay. Got it. Thank you.
Operator:
We will now go to Brandon Nispel with KeyBanc Capital Markets.
Brandon Nispel:
Great. Thank you for taking the question, very quick. Dan, can you help us understand what was the quarter-over-quarter or year-over-year change in the backlog that's signed, but not commenced new leasing so far in 2Q? And maybe help us understand where that would have been and where that should go in the second half of the year? Second really on DISH. I mean, I know it's not in guidance, but what would it take in your view for DISH to be an incremental 50 to 100 basis points contribution to your growth in the next couple of years? Thanks.
Dan Schlanger:
Yes Brandon. I'm sorry I missed your first question. I didn't quite follow it. Could you just restate that? I'd really follow that.
Brandon Nispel:
Yes. I guess, what I'm curious about is what your backlog looks like in terms of signed but not commenced new leases. How that trended from a quarter-over-quarter and a year-over-year standpoint? And really help us figure out and help us understand where that should go in the second half of the year, because that will help inform our assumptions for 2021. Thanks.
Dan Schlanger:
Yes, sorry about that. I got it now. The backlog is relatively consistent year-over-year as we look at it right now. What we do expect as we see the activity levels picking up in the back half that the backlog will increase, and as applications come in to add more to the tower side of the business that those will lead into 2021. So we would expect the back half of the year to have more activity, more leasing and more backlog as we look into the end of the year and then into 2021.
Jay Brown:
Brandon on your second question around DISH. Obviously, they've made significant commitments to the regulators around what they're going to deploy and have been very public about their intention to build a nationwide network. And we are focused on being a terrific partner with them and working hard to ensure that they're able to meet those targets that they've set out for themselves over the next couple of years. And as we get into the impacts to future years, I think I'll wait until October to give you some view of what we think the impact in 2021 is going to be. But we're zeroed in and making sure that we're being responsive to what could be a significant customer over the next few years as they build out a nationwide network.
Ben Lowe:
Thank you. Maybe we have time to take one more question, this morning.
Operator:
Okay. And our final question will come from Tim Horan with Oppenheimer. Please go ahead.
Tim Horan:
Thanks, guys. Could you give us a breakdown on percentage of fiber CapEx that's for geographic expansion? And where do you think you are in the geographic expansion for the top 30 markets?
Jay Brown:
Yeah. I think generally what I would tell you is about 70% of the activity that we see on fiber side with small cells are anchor builds. So think about that as geographic expansion. It very well may be in the top 30 markets, but it's in portions of the market that we don't have fiber existing. And then about 30% of the activity is going to be in places where we already have existing fiber and we're co-locating. So that's not a perfect correlation to the actual capital dollars, because co-locations obviously require far less capital. But in terms of activity, if you're trying to get a sense of how much of the activity that we have going on is new market expansion and I would put into that new market expansion really the markets that we're already in where we're investing and expanding the plan inside of those markets as compared to going on existing fiber is probably the best indication of that.
Tim Horan:
Yeah. That's great color. And then Jay what gives you the confidence that the small cell demand will be there? Only because it's been – the growth has been a little bit below investors' expectations and T-Mobile's engineers seem to be a little discounted with small cell. Verizon seems to want to build their own, I mean, what gives you the confidence that look the demand is going to be there? These million nodes we have a lot of visibility on it. Because you obviously have 10 times more visibility than we do on the outside.
Jay Brown:
I think there's a few things that are confidence building around that front. One is we firmly believe in the necessity of it. So as we look at data traffic growth that's occurring in the market there is not a solution for that – for meeting that growing demand from the consumers by solely using macro sites in order to meet that demand. So there is a tailwind of growth – tailwind to the growth that is going to continue to drive the need for additional investment in infrastructure. And small cells are the next best most cost-effective way for the carriers to solve that challenge of growing demand on the networks. Second thing that gives me a great deal of confidence that, the business is going to work is that the carriers are very good at managing the cost structure of their network. And we have watched over the last 20 years as the carriers have migrated their entire network onto other people's towers as a result of it being a much lower cost solution than owning it themselves. So in the places where they can significantly lower their costs as I mentioned earlier in the call they can lower their cost of deployment by about 50% by using our infrastructure versus their own cost of ownership. That cost savings is meaningful and significant and they're thoughtful allocators of capital and managing their income statement and I think that ultimately will carry the day. As I said in my prepared remarks, obviously, no one can accurately predict exactly how much is going to be needed. But if thematically, you believe in the U.S. that a decade and two decades from now people will use wireless networks in greater ways than what they do today then you basically believe that there's going to be an increase in traffic. And the assets that we own both towers and small cells are standing in front of that growing demand. And I think the infrastructure assets will do really well over a long period of time as a result of positioning themselves right in the midst of a big macro trend that's going on in the world. And that's – those two reasons give me the most confidence that this strategy is right and that we're going to deliver terrific shareholder returns over the long term.
Jay Brown:
So I really appreciate everyone joining us this morning. Thanks for the time and we look forward to the conversations and the feedback over the coming days. Thanks so much.
Operator:
And thank you very much. That does conclude our conference for today. I'd like to thank everyone for your participation and you may now disconnect.
Operator:
Good day, and welcome to the Crown Castle First Quarter 2020 Earnings Call. Today's conference is being recorded.At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Ben Lowe, Vice President of Corporate Finance. Please go ahead sir.
Ben Lowe:
Thank you, and good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us today as we review our first quarter 2020 results. With me on the call this morning are Jay Brown, Crown Castle's Chief Executive Officer; and Dan Schlanger, Crown Castle's Chief Financial Officer. To aid the discussion, we have posted supplemental materials in the Investors section of our website at crowncastle.com which we will refer to throughout the call this morning.This conference call will contain forward-looking statements, which are subject to certain risks uncertainties and assumptions and actual results may vary materially from those expected. Information about potential factors which could affect our results is available in the press release and the Risk Factors sections of the company's SEC filings. Our statements are made as of today April 30, 2020 and we assume no obligations to update the forward-looking statements.In addition, today's call includes discussions of certain non-GAAP financial measures. Tables reconciling these non-GAAP financial measures are available in the supplemental information package in the Investors section of the company's website at crowncastle.com.So with that, let me turn the call over to Jay.
Jay Brown:
Thanks, Ben, and good morning, everyone. Thanks for joining us on the call this morning. As you saw from our press release, we delivered another quarter of positive results and maintained our guidance for 2020 growth in AFFO per share of 7% to 8% consistent with our long-term growth expectations. I believe our strategy and unmatched portfolio of more than 40,000 towers and approximately 80,000 route miles of fiber concentrated in the top 100 U.S. markets have positioned Crown Castle to generate growth in cash flows and dividends per share both in the near term and for years to come.Dan will discuss the results and the full year 2020 outlook in a bit more detail, so I'll focus my comments this morning on two key points. First, our business is performing well despite the challenges and uncertainties created by COVID-19. And second, I believe the strong fundamentals of our business and long-term trends driving demand for our critical infrastructure remain intact and provide a long runway of growth for Crown Castle.On the first point, we see robust activity across our business both in terms of customer demand as well as our ability to continue to effectively operate. As a provider of critical telecommunications infrastructure that is considered essential to public health and safety, we continue to construct and install our customers on our infrastructure. Since the outbreak of COVID, we have focused on two primary goals to help guide our decision-making
Dan Schlanger:
Thanks, Jay, and good morning everyone. As Jay discussed, we got off to a solid start with first quarter results performing in line with our expectations and we continue to expect to generate attractive growth in cash flows and dividends per share for the full year 2020.Turning to slide 3 of the presentation, we experienced another excellent quarter of strong top line results that included nearly 6% growth in organic contribution to site rental revenues, driven by approximately 10% growth from new leasing activity and contracted tenant escalations net of approximately 4% from tenant non-renewals.The revenue growth was offset by lower services contribution and increased costs relative to the same period last year, resulting in 1% growth in adjusted EBITDA and AFFO. The lower services contribution was in line with our expectations and tied to the slowdown in tower activity that began in the fourth quarter of last year and carried through the first quarter of this year.As Jay mentioned, we anticipate a significant increase in industry activity in the second half of this year, as all our carrier customers invest to improve their existing networks and as 5G investments begin to ramp. With respect to the increase in costs, we incurred approximately $10 million of costs in the first quarter that we do not expect to recur going forward.Turning to page 4, we are maintaining our full year outlook for 2020. At the midpoint this represents approximately 5% growth in site rental revenue, 6% growth in adjusted EBITDA and 9% growth in AFFO year-over-year compared to 2019, and includes approximately 6% growth year-over-year in organic contribution to site rental revenues.Turning to investment activities. During the first quarter, capital expenditures totaled $447 million, including $21 million of sustaining expenditures and $426 million of discretionary capital investments across fiber towers and small cells. Additionally, we returned significant capital to our shareholders during the first quarter, with our quarterly common stock dividend totaling $513 million, or $1.20 per share, representing growth of approximately 7% on a per share basis compared to the same period a year ago.At the end of the quarter, we further improved our financial flexibility by opportunistically accessing the investment-grade bond market to lock in long-term debt at attractive rates. Specifically, in April, we issued $1.25 billion of senior unsecured notes with a combination of 10- and 30-year maturities using the net proceeds to repay outstanding borrowings under our revolver. The offering had a weighted average maturity of 18 years and coupon of approximately 3.6%, achieving the second lowest coupons in our history for comparable maturities. Our ability to opportunistically access long-term capital at historically low all-in rates, during a period of disruption in capital markets, speaks volumes to the strength of our underlying business and the level of support we have from our investors.Following this financing transaction, our balance sheet and liquidity position remain in great shape with $5 billion of available liquidity from our undrawn revolving credit facility, only $1.6 billion of debt maturing through the end of next year and a weighted average cost of debt of 3.7% with a weighted average maturity of seven years across our entire balance sheet.In addition, we finished the quarter at 5.6 times debt to EBITDA. We remain committed to our investment-grade credit rating and anticipate a glide path back to our target leverage of approximately five times by the end of 2020 based on the expected EBITDA growth throughout the year.So to wrap up, our first quarter results were in line with our expectations and we believe we will remain well positioned to generate 7% to 8% growth in AFFO per share in 2020. Looking further out, we believe our ability to offer towers, small cells and fiber solutions which are all integral components of communications networks provides us the best opportunity to generate significant growth, while delivering high returns to our shareholders.With that operator, I'd like to open the call to questions.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] The first question comes from Simon Flannery at Morgan Stanley.
Simon Flannery:
Great. Thank you, very much and thanks for all the color here. So, I wonder if you could just talk a little bit more about the ramp in the back half of the year. Can you give us some more color about how long you think it will take to negotiate with T-Mobile where you stand on that? And then, do we see a significant activity into Q3, or is it really Q4 when a lot of the major activity will take place? And then on the fiber, how much -- can you talk a little bit about your exposure to SMB? And are you seeing any pressure from that segment? Thank you.
Jay Brown:
Good morning Simon. Thanks for the question. On your first question around the ramp in the second half of the year, I think the ramp is probably most pronounced in our services business. You saw that down sequentially quarter-on-quarter in the first quarter. We expect the second quarter to look somewhat similar to what we saw in the first quarter. And then, as we get into the second half of 2020, we think it's going to look pretty similar to what we saw in the first half of 2019 and that's based on activity that we're seeing across the entire industry.So obviously, Dan spoke to and I mentioned it briefly, what we saw from T-Mobile in the fourth quarter of 2019 and then that continued into 2020, until they got the merger complete. But if we zoom out away from just thinking about one customer, I would point folks to go back and look at what activity looked like in the first half of 2019 and we think that's about what it's going to look like in the second half of 2020. That's separate and distinct importantly from what we're seeing around the recurring revenue.So, as we think about site rental revenues, those are continuing to grow throughout the course of 2020. And I think the differentiation on the ramp really plays itself out in terms of services for all of the reasons that both Dan and I mentioned in our prepared remarks is the carrier activity really starts to pick up and they start to see the benefit of 5G.On your second question around fiber exposure to small businesses, a little less than 5% of our total revenues on the fiber side are coming from small businesses, medium businesses. We are -- the vast majority of our fiber business is related to large enterprises from things that are -- things like education, health care, the carriers. And those businesses are really skewed away from things that we would expect to be impacted by COVID-19. So, as we look at the landscape today, we really don't see much impact from COVID-19 and have very little exposure to the small and medium business side in that business.
Simon Flannery:
Great. Thanks for the color.
Jay Brown:
You bet.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] The next question comes from Philip Cusick at JPMorgan.
Philip Cusick:
Hey guys, thanks. First a follow-up on Simon's question. I wasn't quite clear. So services ramp certainly should ramp in the second half. Do you think that site rental revenue ramps as well, or does it just happen too late to really impact this year and the impact is more on next year?
Jay Brown:
Sure Phil, good morning. On the ramp and recurring revenue, obviously, the business has the nature of whatever we put in revenue today, we -- that recurs next quarter and then we add to it. So there is a ramp in the back half of the year. But as folks think about the amount of ramp and the pronounced impact of that ramp, it's more impacted by what happens with services.As we think about site rental revenue growth over the course of 2020, remember there's sort of three components that drive that growth inside of the calendar year and are reflected in our expectations of growth at the top line. We have all of the leases that we signed during 2019 that turned on during 2019, but we didn't get a full year benefit of those leases. So there's a rollover effect that we have in 2020 as we get a full 12 months of those leases.Then there's a group of leases that we signed in 2019 and those are turning on now in 2020. So we have visibility to them, they're already signed, they're scheduled in the pipeline to be turned on there and that will benefit growth in revenues year-over-year.And then the last component, the smallest component by quite a measure would be leases that we signed in any given calendar year, i.e. we sign them in 2020 and then those leases turn on in 2020. That represents the smallest portion of our site rental revenue growth.So the portions that drive the biggest impact we have really good visibility to those because frankly they've already been signed and in many cases are already turned on and we're benefiting from the rollover effect. And as you saw from our numbers, our organic revenue growth from our prior guidance in addition to us not changing how we think about the full year in terms of guidance if you look at the components of that guidance and the organic revenue growth whether it's towers, small cells or fiber those are unchanged from our previous expectations. So we still expect tower revenue growth to be $175 million, small cell revenue growth to be about $70 million, and then the fiber revenue to be up about $165 million year-over-year, which is exactly what we expected last time.
Philip Cusick:
Okay. And does the restatement of services change the benefit at all as you compare that second half 2020 activity levels versus first half 2019?
Jay Brown:
No. The numbers that I'm speaking to in terms of pointing back to 2019 would be the restated quarterly numbers for 2019. So it's an apples-to-apples comparison.
Philip Cusick:
Good. And then finally, can you give us a sense just digging in on what you see in fiber and small cell construction not a surprise there hasn't been any delay in permitting and construction here?
Jay Brown:
Yeah. If you look at our results in the first quarter, we saw no impact at all from COVID-19. And thus far in April we've only seen a minimal impact anywhere in our business. And we believe as reflected by the fact that our guidance is unchanged, we believe that we can work through the challenges without any material impact on our results.I think my cautionary statements and comments that I made in my prepared remarks those are in recognition that the world is seeing significant disruptions across nearly every industry. And so it seems to me both -- be both prudent and appropriate to state the obvious that we may not have visibility today into all of the impacts that COVID would have on our business.I think on balance, we believe our business will perform within the range of the outlook, which is unchanged from our prior view. So we're excited and pleased with how it's done so far and believe we're in a great position for the balance of the year. But trying to remain both clear-eyed and open-minded to the fact that there may be things that today we just don't have visibility towards.
Philip Cusick:
Good. Thanks, Jay.
Operator:
The next question comes from Jonathan Atkin at RBC Capital Markets.
Jonathan Atkin:
Yeah. Thanks very much. So a couple of questions. I wanted to ask you about the ramp that we see in the second half attributable to 5G. Is that true across each of the major carriers, or was that more of an aggregate trend that you're calling out?
Jay Brown:
Jonathan, it would be true of both, both in aggregate and individual.
Jonathan Atkin:
Okay, yeah. That's very helpful. And then I apologize if you didn't touch on this, but the $10 million increase in costs that you didn't expect to recur going forward what's the nature of those?
Dan Schlanger:
Yeah, Jonathan. Those are related to some legal fees associated with our lease statement and then taxes on our RSU vesting that happened in the first quarter in terms of the number dollars.
Jonathan Atkin:
Okay. And then lastly maybe more of a bigger picture question and I've asked it on prior calls as well, but just the -- any updated thoughts on edge computing and the role of your Vapor IO investments, as well as your fiber assets?
Jay Brown:
Sure. We're seeing really encouraging results on that front. As you'll recall, we made an investment in Vapor IO several years ago, which has been our ability to have insight into what's happening on the edge. And it certainly plays to our strategy of owning the infrastructure around the ecosystem of telecommunications both on the fiber side, as well as on the tower side and believe that those assets combined have real strategic value.Edge networks has developed largely in line with what we expected, really to enable some resource allocation to reduce network connection -- congestion and improve the latency around the networks. And the value and the opportunity that we really see in this is -- we think about it as kind of network or access edge which really requires both the fiber and network integration.So the physical edge component of the network is not really that unique. If you've got real estate at the edge of the network i.e. if you own real estate close to where cell towers are the differentiation is not so much just that physical access. It's the combination of the physical access with the fiber. And so, we believe we have a really unique and compelling opportunity here on the edge.We're operational in four markets now in the U.S. on the edge side. And as we're thinking about the rest of this year and into next year there's a number of other markets that we'll be operational in. It's not material today in terms of our results, but it is an early -- I think an early indication of our strategy being one that creates some pretty compelling opportunities long-term.So we're thinking about this as kind of a long -- long runway and opportunity for future growth not material today. It won't be material probably next year. But as that continues to develop, it could create some real unique and exciting opportunities for us.
Jonathan Atkin:
Thank you.
Operator:
The next question comes from Colby Synesael at Cowen.
Colby Synesael:
Great, thank you. You may have just touched on this as it relates to Jonathan's question, but has there been any notable change in carrier behavior since 2019? We've obviously seen Verizon go and pickup its CapEx expectations. AT&T seems to be suggesting that they're maybe not lower than they previously are expecting. Just color -- if you can just talk about that potentially without mentioning names something if that's your preference.And then also as it relates to T-Mobile, so I guess more specifically to the name, would it be your intention to sign a new MLA with them? And if so, any color on when that might actually occur? Thank you.
Jay Brown:
Sure, Colby. On your first question around the change in carrier behaviour, if I step back and look at where we are today and where we were six to nine months ago, I think our long-term visibility around the investment that the carrier is going to make around 5G is better today than it was six to nine months ago. We can see it across the entire industry. The plans are becoming more real more specific.We're starting to see exactly where they're targeting the sites, and how they're thinking about deploying 5G network in terms of what equipment needs to be added, how much of it needs to be added.So I think the visibility today is there have been a change in behavior. If you were to ask me this relative to six months ago, yeah, the change in behavior is better today than what it was. And that thing that's happened in the last six weeks around COVID-19 has changed that view.As I mentioned in my prepared comments, I think carriers have been really public about the fact that they are intending to build 5G networks and have affirmed that even in the midst of the current environment. So I think from everything that we can see, we're more encouraged today than we would have been six months ago about what that deployment and opportunity looks like.On your second question, I'm going to beg off of that. We really prefer not to talk about specific customers or what their network deployment plans are. So, we're in great shape with all of the carriers across the industry in terms of their ability to access our sites and we're certainly really focused on making sure that all of them are able to achieve their deployment plans across our infrastructure.
Colby Synesael:
Okay. Thank you.
Operator:
The next question comes from David Barden at Bank of America.
David Barden:
Hey, guys. Thanks for taking the question. So thanks for sharing the details or the data point on the small business exposure being kind of sub-5% in the fiber services business. I was wondering if you could kind of elaborate a little bit more on what the enterprise fiber services exposure you do have is related to.And then Dan, we saw some provisions being taken at AT&T and BD for their business services exposure, presumably mostly on the SMB side, but I was wondering kind of what if anything you guys are provisioning for or expect you may have to provision for on the bad debt in enterprise services. Thanks.
Jay Brown:
Yeah, Dave thanks for the question. On the vast majority of our customers would fall into the camp of, what we would call, the carriers and then large enterprises. That would make up more than two-thirds of the base of revenues. And specifically on the large enterprise, we're heavily skewed towards health care, education and financial services.So if you were to take those three large components that's going to -- along with the carriers that's going to make up the vast majority of our revenues. And as I mentioned earlier and you referenced it, less than 5% of the revenues are coming from small and medium businesses.So, obviously, when you think about healthcare education and financial services, that customer base, we think, is less likely to be impacted by COVID. And as we look at the new lease bookings that we saw during the month of March and, as you know, our business is heavily weighted towards the Northeast corridor, which in many industries and aspects was shut down in the second half of March, we didn't see any impact in the month of March. In fact, we had a very good showing in the month of March, even as we were booking new revenues.As I mentioned in my comments, there are some places and some facilities where customers who have committed to use our service and need the bandwidth from us, have delayed our ability to access their facilities as a result of COVID-19, but we think that's a relatively short impact.So once there are protocols in place and we're able to access the facilities, then we'll go in and be able to add the additional bandwidth and bring the service to those customers. So, I think, in terms of our exposure, both in terms of what the direction of that is and then how we've seen that play out over the last six weeks, I think, our business there has -- we'll see very little to no impact from COVID-19.
David Barden:
Great. Thanks.
Operator:
The next question comes from Brett Feldman at Goldman Sachs.
Brett Feldman:
Hi. Thanks. I want to ask the MLA question a little more broadly. Because if we look at your business, you have customers, as Colby noted, who might be to combine MLAs. You might have new emerging customers who might need to create them. You might have existing customers you just want to revisit them for a range of reasons.And you're offering multiple types of infrastructure now, you're offering towers, you're offering small cells, you're offering fiber and most of your large wireless customers might have an interest in all of them. And so, as you approach these conversations, what are you hoping to achieve as you enter into new or modified or combined MLAs? What are the success components to that as you do -- as you go look at that and see whether you're checking the boxes or not? Thanks.
Jay Brown:
Yes. Brett thanks for the question. Stepping back from this and just kind of a broad answer to how we think about running the assets and really just as to how we think about the investment as well, we make investment decisions based on what we think the recurring yield on those assets is going to be and ultimately whether or not it is enhancing to our long-term dividend per share growth rate.So embedded in that obviously, if we're going to get to growth in the dividend we have to consider all of the cost of capital associated with the assets that we're looking at and then how much cash flow can we ultimately generate off of those assets. So, we start first with kind of a perspective of what's the cost of the capital to acquire the asset and then what do we think the return around the asset is going to be and then build it up from there.As we've talked about areas of the company and I think, this is particularly important as we think about the investment that we've made in fiber and in small cells, where there's not -- I think, in the historical way of thinking about the tower business, there was more of a rote way of thinking about what the price per tower was. And as we think about the pricing around small cells, which we think is the biggest driver of returns on fiber, that pricing is determined based on cost. So it's going to look different in a major metro dense urban downtown business district, than it might in a more suburban setting, depending on the cost of deployment.So as we turn to having conversations with the carriers our aim is to provide them with the lowest cost alternative to them owning or building it themselves. And so, our aim is, trying to deliver something to them that the shared infrastructure model is at play where it's cheaper for them to share it among all of the carriers and to lease it from us than it would be for them to build it themselves. And then as we think about whether or not that asset or that particular opportunity would be of interest, we're measuring that against the returns required in order to make sure we're delivering equity returns above and beyond any cost of the capital associated with that.To be a little more specific to your question around how we think about that with the assets, well, then we just play that out into the specific asks of the carriers. So, we'll go and understand what markets are they trying to go into, what type of infrastructure do they want or need from us and then work our way backwards through the framework of ensuring that we're pricing appropriately in order to achieve the appropriate returns across the assets.
Brett Feldman:
Thank you.
Operator:
The next question comes from Ric Prentiss at Raymond James.
Ric Prentiss:
Hey. First off, you guys and your family, employees are all safe and well during this crazy time, so it sounds like you’re doing a good job there.
Jay Brown:
Thanks, Ric. You too.
Ric Prentiss:
Should we think -- I'll attack the question maybe from a different angle. Would it require new MLAs to see -- or modified MLAs to see the ramp in the service business in the second half?
Jay Brown:
No. We don't need to sign new MLAs with our customers in order to achieve the ramp in front of us.
Ric Prentiss:
Okay. And then, obviously, you guys have approached the debt market, got some really good tenor and cost of debt. You've got the glide path. But what, if anything, would cause you to think that you would have the equity markets? I know in the past you've kind of laid it out there as a potential. But what would be make raising equity interesting as opposed to not interesting?
Dan Schlanger:
Yes, Rick. We as a general rule don't want to issue equity rule, keep our equity for our existing holders. So we think there's significant value there over the long-term. So the thing that would make us -- put us in the position of having to issue equity would be if we do get to a point where that glide path is not happening and our leverage is remaining at elevated levels or too high that it would jeopardize our investment-grade rating at that point we would -- in essence what that means is that our EBITDA generation doesn't create enough leverage capacity to make up for the capital we're spending then that would lead us to issuing equity.So we're not looking at it as necessarily to say, okay is this opportunistically can we get something done right now? It's more how is this going to impact our overall leverage profile and when will it be required in order to maintain the rating that we -- the investment grade rating that we want to maintain for all the reasons you said earlier which is we're able to access the debt markets during a pretty disruptive period.We got very good tenor and very good rates. And we want the ability to do that going forward because we want in times of distress and in times of things going well to be able to spend money on assets that we think will generate good long-term returns. And Jay was just talking about -- and we think that having an investment-grade rating really helps that.
Ric Prentiss:
Thanks. And from the zoning permitting side any -- I assume you're watching, but any concerns on ability to get crews or equipment supply with the supply chain out there anything from the crew side or the supply chain side?
Jay Brown:
Yes Ric. I mean, I can speak to only what we've seen thus far which is we haven't seen as I mentioned before we haven't seen any impact to date from COVID-19. So I recognize and again, I'll say it again, I think, that the widespread nature of COVID-19 and maybe the second and third derivatives of impacts, I don't want to say that I have perfect visibility to what that's going to look like into the future. But thus far our crews have been able to continue to work and install our tenants and deliver the infrastructure that's necessary. So we've not seen any impact. We didn't see any impact in the first quarter results and haven't seen it thus far.Our teams are continuing to work. And the states have been great as well as the federal government and they have been really clear that the deployment of telecommunications infrastructure is essential work that needs to be done. And so our crews have been able to navigate and to work and to do so safely and install the infrastructure. And so at this point we don't see any impact from COVID-19 in terms of limiting our ability to continue to deliver for customers.
Ric Prentiss:
Again, wish you all the best for you and your family. Stay safe and warm this time.
Jay Brown:
Thank, Ric.
Operator:
The next question comes from Michael Rollins at Citi.
Michael Rollins:
Hi. Good morning. Thanks for taking the questions. Two if I could. First, if you can step back on the small cell business can you frame how the contract value allocates between the fiber infrastructure you're providing versus the access that you have to poles and to other structures that they might be attached to and then the actual electronics or antenna or anything that you provide that's on a more technical basis. And then just secondly, is there an update to your prior disclosures around the inquiry from the SEC? Thanks.
Jay Brown:
Sure. Good morning, Mike. Thanks for the question. On the first question around the small cell contracts. We don't differentiate that as -- in terms of the contract itself. I think probably the best way and hopefully this answers the question in terms of what you're driving towards. If you think about the capital costs associated with building small cell networks about 80%, 85% of the total cost of building those networks is in the fiber itself.So if you think about the contractual value coming back to us and what we're pricing the investment back to my comments about it differs market-by-market and even inside of the market based on the type of infrastructure that has to be deployed in order to achieve a small cell solution for the carriers. The majority of the -- think about the revenue and the underlying cost associated with that is going to be in the fiber asset, the fiber asset itself.And then what it looks like in terms of the aesthetic and the actual delivery of the antenna that will really change based on the architecture and the desired aesthetics by the municipality or potentially by the utility that we're working with in order to figure out what is the vertical infrastructure that becomes the broadcast point for that small cell. And that's a much smaller component of the overall cost and therefore a smaller driver of what the return to us is or cash flows to us are.On your second question, we don't have any update to the SEC process. The prior comments that we've made still stand. Obviously, we're fully cooperating with any questions that they have for us and we'll continue to do so.
Michael Rollins:
Thanks.
Operator:
The next question comes from Nick Del Deo at MoffettNathanson.
Nick Del Deo:
Hey, good morning. Thanks for taking my question. First with respect to small cells and fiber solutions, can you help us understand what the typical lag is between when the permitting for project is complete and when you actually deploy an infrastructure? And does it vary very much between small cells and fiber?
Jay Brown:
Sure. Thanks, Nick. On the small cell side and fiber side it will – there are different answers depending on the communities because the amount of work that we have to work through whether it's a utility or a municipality or both, those have differing answers. But in general the entire time line from the time that a carrier tells us that they would like a small cell to when we have it on air, the outcome there is ranging from about 18 months to 36 months and the majority are kind of in the 24-month to 36-month period of time.The vast majority of that time period is we're incurring what we would describe as soft costs and those costs are relatively low. And the reason for that is because we're working through the process with the municipalities and the utilities in order to figure out what the structure and access is going to look like in order to build it.Once we have all of the zoning, permitting approvals that are necessary in order to build or to deploy that – those assets, the build cycle itself is relatively short. So we'll incur the majority of the cost of the capital in the last several months of the build before the revenue turns on. So that build cycle is relatively short.Now when I say relatively short it's relative to the 24- to 36-month time cycle, there are exceptions to that where we're putting in fiber in places that are very difficult to build and it may take us longer than just a few months in order to actually build the infrastructure. So, but in general that would hold where we go through a long period of time with the soft cost to build and then the actual construction portion is relatively short.The same would hold true on the fiber solutions side, if we're building new fiber for new customers in a new market. But it would not hold true, if we were looking at a building that we were already providing fiber to or a location where we had already built small cells and we had a fiber run just outside or relative proximity to a potential enterprise customer. And in those cases the ability to get them on air is much faster than that time line of 24 to 36 months.Generally speaking, we'll have a new customer on air within six months of contracting with them on the enterprise side or on the enterprise fiber side. Some of that and I think this is helpful just in terms of from a strategic standpoint, as we think about the business, we think about the long-term value drivers, we believe is going to come primarily from small cells.And so where we've invested the capital and as we've thought about the opportunity, we're zeroing capital in in places where we think there's going to be the most small cell opportunity. We then look at that – those assets that have been created for small cells and reinvested in because of the opportunity we think about from a small cell standpoint. And then we pursue customers on the enterprise side that could use those fiber runs.So a portion of the reason why we're faster on the enterprise side is by definition we're targeting customers who can utilize that same asset that we're utilizing on the small cell side. So it self selects. Whereas on the other side when you think about where we're building small cells, we're working closely with the carriers in places that there is no existing fiber today and so we're going in and building high capacity, dense urban fiber for the purpose of small cells and then we would go back and roll that into opportunities that are on the enterprise fiber side.
Nick Del Deo:
Okay. That's helpful. And just – maybe just to put a finer point on it and kind of where I was trying to get with the question. If we think about the remaining nodes that you plan on putting on air for the balance of the year, is it then fair to say that a good chunk of those are kind of through the permitting process and ready to go?
Jay Brown:
Yes. They would be in various stages of that. But in order to get them on air in 2020, we would have to have pretty good visibility towards either – we've either achieved all of the approvals or the majority of them and we have line of sight that the other approvals are coming.
Nick Del Deo:
Okay. Okay. Good. And then one on the expected services ramp. Can you expand a little bit on the degree which your expectation of the ramp is based on your interpretations of the carriers' intentions versus specific planning discussions you're having or work orders you've received?
Jay Brown:
Well I think going back to my comments that I made around the recurring revenue, the leases that we would have signed to date, whether that was last year or this year, the services work would be related to that. So preconstruction work that we're performing for the carriers in advance of them installing on a site and then a much smaller component of the services now coming in the periods in which we perform the work, where we're actually adding tenants to the tower.So we would have pretty good visibility towards what that activity would look like. Now the same comments that has always applied to this business, I think certainly applies today, it is the most volatile component of our results, because knowing exactly when some of these sites will turn on when and that work will actually be completed, we don't have the same kind of visibility that we do on the recurring revenue side.So I think any time we couple and this is why my remarks were really bifurcated between here's what we're seeing in the current year 2020 and then this is what we're seeing over a long runway period of time. Is there a possibility that some of the services activity that we're expecting to come in in the second half of the year that some of that slides into 2021? That's possible.But the activity level in terms of the recurring revenue, I think we have pretty good visibility on that front and we feel better about that recurring revenue opportunity today than what we did six months ago. And so whether that results in services activity as we believe it will in the second half of the year if a little bit of it slips into 2021 from a run rate standpoint if we get out into 2021, I think we feel better today about our run rate in 2021 than what we would have six months ago.So our best view today is the guidance that we've provided and that looks like second half of services in 2020 kind of similar to what we saw in the first half of 2019. And then that second quarter that we're in right now probably looks similar to what we saw in the first quarter of this year.
Nick Del Deo:
Okay. Thank you, Jay.
Jay Brown:
You bet.
Operator:
The next question comes from Batya Levi at UBS.
Batya Levi:
Great. Thank you. A couple of follow-ups. First on the small cell deployment side. Can you talk about if there has been any change in demand from the carriers? The pipeline for the ones on air and under construction seems to be relatively flat in the last few quarters. I was wondering how we should think about that total number going forward.And a second question on the mobile usage growth. With work at home in place right now, is there any change in that usage growth that you could that you can talk about that could potentially delay the carrier activity down the road?And just a final question on DISH. Now that the your tenants are adding DISH spectrum temporarily to their sites if that is expanded beyond 60 days do you think that could provide an opportunity for you? Thank you.
Jay Brown:
Sure. On the first question around the pipeline for small cell nodes, we continue to see activity in normal course and believe that will continue as the carriers work on their 5G deployment plans. We've seen steady growth in that front over the last several quarters and so really encouraged about the continued need for it.I think we're positioned really well for that opportunity both in terms of the systems that we built in the early days and have great locations. Those are anchored by one of the big three operators today and well positioned for additional lease-up from those operators. And then obviously we have the capabilities to be able to stand with the carriers as they think about broadening out the number of markets that they want to go in and those discussions have continued to be really fruitful.On your second comment around office remote working relationships, as I've said in a couple of different ways, we haven't seen any change in behavior from our fiber customer side, and frankly, don't expect to see any change of behavior there. I think it will be interesting to see in terms of what the traffic patterns change and what the impact is ultimately to overall data growth.I think our bias is probably towards believing that it is increased data traffic and then there's been a number of studies out that have kind of shown some increases in overall traffic as a result of a change in the working environment. But I'd say net-net that has not really led to a change in the way, we think about the business. And then…
Batya Levi:
Yeah. Just to clarify on that. So, sorry. I was mostly asking about the macro environment actually. Have you seen any mobile usage kind of maybe stepping down a little bit as more people use their broadband connectivity at home?
Jay Brown:
No. We haven't. I mean, to my comments in terms of the carrier activity, we've seen them not -- we've not seen them change at all. They're pushed towards building out their networks improving their networks for 4G and then also getting ready for 5G. And the prior statistics that we've talked about for years in terms of overall data growth 30% to 40% annual growth in data that appears to be intact and maybe even biased a little bit towards the upside.So in terms of carrier behavior in the current as well as conversations that we're having with them about what it's going to look like over the coming months and years. Again, we feel better about what that opportunity is today than what we would have said six months ago.On your last question around DISH, obviously, they're at the very beginning portion of beginning to as I made in my prepared comments, they're at the very beginning of starting to launch the network. And they have some big targets in terms of how much deployment is going to be needed and to come. We don't expect that and don't have any benefit of that in our 2020 results or very little impact in our 2020 results. We think that's really a 2021 and beyond impact. And so we're working closely with DISH to provide them the best service that we possibly can. And then we'll see, how it develops from there.
Batya Levi:
Okay. Thank you.
Jay Brown:
Got you. Maybe it's time for just one more question operator.
Operator:
Absolutely. The last question comes from Spencer Kurn at New Street Research.
Spencer Kurn:
Hey, guys. Thanks for taking the question. I just wanted – want to clear things on what you're seeing in your tower backlog. I would think that the piece of the applications – the volumes of applications have fallen since we saw a slowdown from Sprint and T-Mobile and DISH in the back part of last year. But curious as to where it stands now relative to trough levels and what you're basically expecting for volumes improving as you are progressing relative to the numbers that you saw last year?
Jay Brown:
Sure, good morning, Spencer. I think my comments earlier Spencer around how we think about the growth in recurring revenue is probably the best way to think about the answer to your question. So obviously, we had really good activity throughout 2019 across the board from the carriers. And a lot of those leases are now turning on here in 2020, which gives us comfort that we've been able to assess where the run rate of revenues will be as we go through the portion of 2020. And then, new leasing activity obviously we're getting new applications every day and so factoring that into as we think about the growth over the balance of the calendar year, and then the implication of that on revenues.The leases that we're signing today and then turning on in calendar year 2020 that makes a relatively small impact in the overall results for calendar year 2020. So less impactful there, but again to all of the comments that I've made throughout the call we're seeing a significant amount of activity and the conversations with the carriers would indicate that that activity is going to continue to ramp as we go through the calendar year and that will be in a place, where we'll see even greater applications than what we're seeing today for our sites. That – while that's the trend line that doesn't really impact our 2020 results. But that's what we're seeing is an environment that we're more positive about today than where we would have been six months ago. So I would – I'm a little, I would be resistant to describing a backlog that's falling. I think the pipeline and the opportunity set is growing as we think about what's in front of us.
Spencer Kurn:
Got it. And then if I just could follow-up on the other topic which is just churn. In the power business, we tend to think of the normalized churn around 1% annually. And for the past several years you've been running above those levels because you've had – you've shown a few problems in churn from MetroPCS and even Clearwire. I was just hoping you could touch on how much of that churn do you have left. And is there a prospect that would sort of return back to more like levels later this year as we think about the next several years ahead of us furthermore and the impact of a Sprint would do to the churn, which could happen a few years away?
Jay Brown:
Sure, Spencer. On the churn side, we saw the end of the consolidated churn in terms of an event happening in the fourth quarter of 2019, so late in the year. So in terms of run rate impact on the run rate that's continuing to affect our results, if you were comparing Q1 of 2020 to Q1 of 2019, we still have that elevated level of churn. It's about 2% on an annualized basis roughly. So about double our normalized churn, which you accurately said was 1%. That is our normalized level of churn.As we get into the back half of 2019 and by the time, we get to the fourth quarter of 2019 – sorry, as we get into the back half of 2020 and into the fourth quarter of 2020, we think that normalized churn of about 1% is what we'll see. So part of the answer is you think about what's the net impact on site rental revenues is, we're benefiting from a reduction in churn as we go up – go through the course of the year in addition to the uplift for the new leasing that we're seeing. So we believe by the time we get towards the back half of the year and particularly the fourth quarter, all of the consolidating churn that we've been talking about over the last several years will have – that will have worked itself through.
Spencer Kurn:
Awesome. Thank you.
Jay Brown:
You bet.
Jay Brown:
Well, thanks everyone for joining the call this morning. I want to lastly just thank all of our employees, who've done a tremendous job over the last six to seven weeks, and both delivering for our customers and delivering for the communities in which we operate. So many thanks to all of you for the hard work that you're doing. Keep up the great job, and we'll talk to everyone next quarter. Thanks so much.
Operator:
This concludes today's call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Good day, and welcome to the Crown Castle Q4 2019 Earnings Call. Today's call is being recorded. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Ben Lowe. Sir, please go ahead.
Benjamin Lowe:
Thank you, Katie, and good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us today as we review our fourth quarter 2019 results. With me on the call this morning are Jay Brown, Crown Castle's Chief Executive Officer; and Dan Schlanger, Crown Castle's Chief Financial Officer. To aid the discussion, we have posted supplemental materials in the Investors section of our website at crowncastle.com, which we will refer to throughout the call this morning. This call -- this conference call will contain forward-looking statements, which are subject to certain risks, uncertainties and assumptions, and actual results may vary materially from those expected. Information about potential factors which could affect our results is available in the press release and the Risk Factors sections of the company's SEC filings. Our statements are made as of today, February 27, 2020, and we assume no obligation to update any forward-looking statements. As you saw from our press release yesterday, we've restated our historical financials. Of the financial information we discuss in this call includes the expected effect of the restatement. In addition, today's call includes discussions of certain non-GAAP financial measures. Tables reconciling these non-GAAP financial measures are available in the supplemental information package in the Investors section of the company's website at crowncastle.com. So with that, let me turn the call over to Jay.
Jay Brown:
Thanks, Ben, and thank you, everyone, for joining us on the call this morning. As you saw from our results, we closed out another year of solid growth in 2019, which included generating the highest level of tower leasing activity in more than a decade. I believe our strategy and unmatched portfolio of more than 40,000 towers and approximately 80,000 route miles of fiber concentrated in the top U.S. markets has positioned Crown Castle to generate growth in cash flows and dividends per share, both in the near term and for years to come. Dan will discuss the results for full year 2019 and the full year 2020 outlook in a bit more detail. So I want to focus my comments this morning on 2 key points. First, we expect 2020 to be another year of significant growth in cash flows and dividends per share. And secondly, I'm excited about the long runway of growth for Crown Castle as we are sitting on the doorstep of another investment cycle by our customers as they deploy 5G. On the first point, we expect to grow AFFO per share in 2020 by approximately 8% supported by similar levels of growth in our tower and fiber segments when compared to 2019. We expect the elevated level of growth that we expect -- that we experienced in 2019 to continue with similar levels of tower leasing this year as our customers respond to the ongoing growth in mobile data demand. Uncertainty around the outcome of the pending merger between T-Mobile and Sprint caused a decrease in activity during late 2019 and early 2020. However, we believe this slowdown will ultimately prove temporary and short-lived as we anticipate a significant increase in industry activity in second half of this year as clarity around the merger drives a ramp in 5G investments. Within our small cell and fiber businesses, 2019 was a terrific year as we've successfully deployed approximately 10,000 small cell nodes, making the -- making it the highest year of production in our company's history. We expect to deploy another 10,000 small cell nodes this year as we continue to respond to the significant increase in demand from our customers while, at the same time, navigating ongoing hurdles that remain challenging with many municipalities and utilities. We finished 2019 with more than 40,000 small cells on air and another approximately 30,000 in our construction pipeline as we remain the leading U.S. small cell provider in terms of scale and capabilities. Adding to the returns we are generating from attaching small cells to approximately 80,000 route miles of fiber, we generated 3% revenue growth from our fiber solutions business in 2019, and we anticipate similar levels of growth this year. We see a path to further improve our returns over time by sharing the same fiber asset across this larger addressable market of fiber solutions customers that require high bandwidth connectivity, including large enterprises, health care institutions and government agencies. Simply put, 2019 was a great year of growth. And 2020 is shaping up to be similar, albeit potentially more back-end loaded than we previously expected. And as excited as I am about 2019 and 2020, I'm even more excited about the bigger picture. We have positioned Crown Castle with the right assets in the right market with market-leading capabilities to deliver value to our customers and generate shareholder returns for decades to come. As is often the case, the natural tendency is to overestimate what is possible in any given 12-month stretch while underestimating the dramatic change that can occur over a 10-year period. Looking back over the last decade, we have significantly expanded our tower business from approximately 22,000 towers in the U.S., generating approximately $1.5 billion in annual site rental revenue in 2009 to where we are today with 40,000 towers generating nearly $3.5 billion in annual site rental revenue. We also established a common stock dividend during that time that provides a consistent return of capital to our shareholders, currently totaling $2 billion on an annual basis or nearly 35% of our total revenues. Further, we have built a market-leading position in small -- in the small cells industry and have invested approximately $15 billion of capital to establish fiber footprints in prime locations across the top U.S. markets where we see the greatest long-term demand. While making those significant investments in assets and capabilities that we believe will expand our future growth opportunity as 5G is deployed, our equity market capitalization has increased from less than $10 billion to over $60 billion, generating a compound annual total return of greater than 18% for our shareholders during the last 10 years. And the combination of the market dynamics and our unique portfolio of assets sets us up for a long runway of continued growth as the wireless industry embarks on an investment cycle to deploy 5G. This has the potential to make the next 10 years look a lot like the last 10. The current demand environment that is generating the highest levels of tower leasing activity in more than a decade is largely tied to our customers investing heavily in their 4G networks to keep pace with the 30% to 40% annual data demand growth. On top of that continued investment, we anticipate significant long-term demand for our infrastructure as 5G becomes a reality and wireless networks expand from connecting everyone to connecting everything. Adding to my optimism, I believe recent industry developments will help to accelerate the deployment of 5G in the U.S. We believe the new T-Mobile, along with AT&T and Verizon, are in a great position to leverage their scale and valuable spectrum assets, ultimately promoting more investment across the industry. Adding to the opportunity, this is the first time in more than a decade that we have had visibility into a potential new customer entering the wireless market at scale with DISH networks looking to deploy nearly 100 megahertz of spectrum over the next several years in order to compete with the established operators and meet significant build-out requirement. And finally, there are several large spectrum auctions on the horizon that we believe will bode well for the future tower and small cell demand. With our unmatched asset base and expertise operating in the best market in the world for communications infrastructure ownership, I believe Crown Castle is in a great position to capture these substantial long-term opportunities and consistently deliver a return of capital to our shareholders through a high-quality dividend that we expect to grow 7% to 8% annually. And with that, I'll turn the call over to Dan to go through some of the more specifics of the quarter and the last year.
Daniel Schlanger:
Thanks, Jay, and good morning, everyone. We delivered another great year of financial performance in 2019 with several highlights. We grew dividends per share by approximately 7%, reflecting the underlying growth in our business and our commitment to returning capital to our shareholders. We generated the highest level of tower leasing in more than a decade. We accelerated the deployment of small cell nodes by delivering approximately 10,000 small cells last year, the highest annual production in our history, and we continued to improve our financial flexibility by increasing commitments under our revolving credit facility to $5 billion while also lowering our weighted average borrowing cost and increasing the average maturity on our debt by refinancing $1.9 billion of debt at attractive long-term rates. As I walk through our full year 2019 results and our updated outlook for 2020, please note that, where applicable, all financial figures reflect the impact of the restatement we disclosed in our earnings release yesterday, which I will discuss shortly. Turning to our full year 2019 results on Slide 3 of the presentation. Relative to the midpoint of our prior outlook, the outperformance in site rental revenues was primarily offset at the adjusted EBITDA and AFFO lines by lower contribution from services tied to a slowdown in activity during the quarter -- fourth quarter. As Jay mentioned, uncertainty around the outcome of the pending merger between T-Mobile and Sprint led to lower activity levels in late 2019 that we believe will continue through early 2020 before rebounding later this year. As a result, we expect our financial performance in 2020 to be more back-end loaded than we previously anticipated, particularly in our services business. Turning to Slide 4 and looking at full year 2019 in more detail. Site rental revenues increased by $298 million, inclusive of $290 million in organic contribution to site rental revenues. That equates to just over 6% growth. That 6% growth is comprised of approximately 6% growth in towers, 17% in small cells and 3% in fiber solutions. Moving on to investment activities during the year. We deployed approximately $2.1 billion in capital expenditures, including $1.9 billion of revenue-generating capital expenditures comprised of $1.4 billion in fiber and approximately $450 million in towers. Additionally, during 2019, we returned significant capital to our shareholders through our quarterly common stock dividend totaling $1.9 billion in the aggregate or $4.58 per share, representing growth of approximately 7% compared to full year 2018. From a balance sheet perspective, we ended 2019 at approximately 5.5x debt to EBITDA. We remain committed to our investment-grade credit rating and anticipate a glide path back to our target leverage of approximately 5x by the end of 2020 based on the expected EBITDA growth throughout the year. Turning to our full year 2020 outlook. Starting on Slide 5 of the presentation. You can see our outlook remains unchanged, apart from the effect of the restatement. To wrap up, 2019 was another very successful year for Crown Castle. We are excited about the growth opportunity going forward as 5G deployments are just beginning and are expected to drive significant demand for our tower and fiber infrastructure. Currently, we are seeing the benefits from the investments our customers are making in wireless networks to keep pace with increasing data demand, which allows us to provide near-term returns through a high-quality dividend that we expect to grow 7% to 8% annually. At the same time, we're making significant investments in our small cell and fiber business that we believe will position Crown Castle to take advantage of the long-term growth trends Jay discussed earlier and generate shareholder returns for decades to come. Before opening the call up to questions, I'd like to spend a minute addressing the restatement of our previously reported financial statements as described and detailed in our press release yesterday. In connection with our year-end procedures and after receiving the previously disclosed subpoena from the SEC, we engaged in a review internally and with our independent auditors of our accounting policies for our tower installation services. Following that review, we decided with our auditors to seek additional input from the Office of the Chief Accountant of the SEC, also referred to as the OCA, regarding whether a portion of our tower -- of our installation services revenues should be recognized over the term of the lease of the installation work -- of the lease the installation work is associated with. After consulting with the OCA, we determined that our historical practice of recognizing the full transaction price as service revenue upon completion of the installation was not acceptable under GAAP. Instead, a portion of the transaction price for our installation services, specifically the amounts associated with permanent improvements recorded as fixed assets, represents a modification to the lease to which the service work is related and, therefore, should be recognized on a ratable basis as site rental revenues over the associated remaining lease term. To be clear, this restatement only impacts the results in our tower segment and has no effect on our fiber segment. It is important to note 2 key facts as it relates to the restatement. First, over the term of customer lease contracts, we will recognize the same cumulative amount of total revenue and total gross margin as our historical practice. And second, the new accounting treatment will have no impact on our net cash flows, our business operations or our expected dividend per share growth going forward. As noted in our release, our consultation with the OCA was not part of the previously disclosed SEC investigation or subpoena. Based on our internal review, we continue to believe that our capitalization and expense policies, which were the subject of the subpoena, are appropriate. We will, of course, cooperate fully with the SEC, including in connection with the review of those policies. With that, Katie, I'd like to open the call up to questions.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions]. Our first question will come from Philip Cusick with JPMorgan.
Philip Cusick:
A couple, first on the restatement. Can you give us some examples of the types of projects where the accounting on revenue has changed and why you're confident that the cost should be capitalized versus expensed in a ratio where they are today? And then second, can you give us any update on progress in the small cell business on applications and permitting timing?
Daniel Schlanger:
Sure, Phil. I'll take the first part of that and leave Jay for the second one. The types of projects we're talking about is when we do services work, in essence, what we're doing is putting new equipment on to our towers. In order to do that, we have to add some permanent improvement to those towers. So think of something like a bracket or a mount that holds the antenna in place. As we do that, we're creating a permanent asset that we believe adds to the value and the revenue-generating potential of that tower going forward. And as we do that, we have to capitalize -- we believe we need to capitalize those because those are permanent improvements, as I just said. That capitalization leads to the deferral of revenue of that portion of the services work that is associated with the capital. So as we put that piece of equipment on the tower that adds value to the tower, we defer the revenue associated with that and we capitalize the cost associated with it. The reason we're comfortable with that and remain comfortable with our capitalization policy is we do believe that we're adding to the permanent revenue-generating potential of the tower going forward, and therefore, it is a capitalized portion of the work to add to the fixed asset base that we have in place.
Philip Cusick:
And does this now more closely match the expensing versus capitalization on the cost side?
Daniel Schlanger:
Yes. It does. It defers the revenue and capitalizes and then it depreciates that over time.
Philip Cusick:
How are those roughly related in terms of size?
Daniel Schlanger:
How are those -well, you can see that what we do is the capital is around -- for 2019, it was around $210 million. That's the revenue that we are removing from the services business. And then we get about $110 million of the amortization of prior and 2019 work in 2019 related to what we had done historically and then amortize up through 2019.
Philip Cusick:
Sorry, I meant more on the cost side, the relative ratio of expense versus capitalization of those costs. How are those similar or different to the revenue side?
Daniel Schlanger:
I'm sorry, Phil, I'm having a hard time following the question. The relative ratio of the capitalization to the expense?
Philip Cusick:
On the cost side, if you -- in terms of the cost you're generating, how much of it are you capitalizing or versus expensing immediately alongside the revenue?
Daniel Schlanger:
Yes. So the amount of cost that we're capitalizing is a little higher than the amount -- on a percentage basis, a little higher than the amount of revenue that we're deferring just because we have margin associated with some of that. So it's pretty close, but it's probably slightly higher on the cost capitalization percentage of expense as it is the deferred revenue as a percent of revenue. But it's pretty close.
Philip Cusick:
Okay. And then on the applications and permit timing?
Jay Brown:
Yes. Happy to take that one. I think we made great progress during 2019 clearing a number of different hurdles around municipalities and utilities, and we're getting better in terms of how we approach the projects, how we -- some of the work -- the pre-work that we do in order to get ready to launch a new project in a market. Certainly, the feedback and help that we received during the calendar year from the FCC and their new policy was helpful. As I've mentioned in past calls, their help was mostly effective in markets where we were at a complete standstill, and they clarified the time line to be able to go through the process as well as the cost associated with doing that. So that was helpful and I think reflective of the comments that both Dan and I made around put 10,000 of these nodes on air during calendar year 2019. We would've loved to have done more, obviously, but that was the highest level of production we've ever done in the company's history. And so our team worked incredibly hard to get to the place where we could deliver at that kind of scale. And we think 2020 plays out very similar to that, about 10,000 nodes that we'll put on this year but we're continuing to work on the broader efforts around the best way to overcome some of the continuing hurdles and challenges of getting through municipalities and utilities. And every time this question comes up, one of the things that I think is important to keep in context is a lot of the hurdles associated with this, I don't think, are ever going to go away. So I don't ever anticipate that our time line today of between 18 and 36 months to get these small cell nodes on air, I doubt that there's ever a time when we're telling you that we're able to get these done inside of a calendar year on average. The time lines are long because we have to work with the municipalities and the utilities, both to navigate some of the existing infrastructure but just to make sure that these assets comply with the desired aesthetics in the community. And the barriers to that entry are incredibly high, just like the tower business. So I think long term, we will always be overcoming the hurdle or the challenge of getting these things on quickly. That's largely a relational work that we need to do with municipalities and communities that we're putting this infrastructure into and making sure that we balance appropriately the need for the infrastructure and the desired aesthetics of the community in which the infrastructure is going into.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Simon Flannery with Morgan Stanley.
Simon Flannery:
Great. Just continuing on the small cell. Maybe you could just share a little bit of the kind of same-store sales, what's happening on a nodes per mile and your ability to lease it up. And does that -- is there any change there in the permitting if you already have the fiber deployed and somebody wants to add another node? And then just on the enterprise fiber business. Any changes in your go to market and kind of your sales force or anything like that to help drive the bookings engine?
Jay Brown:
You bet. On the first questions around small cells, we're seeing similar levels of lease-up to the existing assets that we've seen over the last few months that we've talked about -- I guess the last couple of quarters that we've talked about. We're continuing to see a desire from the wireless operators to go on fiber that we built originally for an anchor tenant in mostly top 10 markets in the U.S., where the preponderance of the investment has been made. We're still seeing significant activity and lease-up on that legacy fiber. And then the density of new nodes, when a carrier ask us to construct additional fiber to build, has stayed relatively similar. So we're in the neighborhood of 2 to 2.5 nodes per mile. And then as we see a carrier come back and want to go on that existing fiber, I'd say, generally across the country, the build-out is similar to that. I think you could -- and in a more upside case, as we think about long term, both from what's currently being driven for 4G as well as what we expect in 5G, when Dan and I talk about kind of the upside opportunity that we have and why we're so excited about the quality of these assets over a decade, I think back to the learnings around towers. And in the early days of towers 20 years ago when the assets were built, we looked at the landscape and saw that there was going to be some lease-up associated with the assets. But we sit here today, 20 years later, and the lease-up was far in excess of anything that we underwrote when we made those initial investments. And I think the parallel on the small cell side is we're underwriting these investments assuming current levels of data traffic and the need for these assets in 4G and, at the same time, the underlying drivers for the need of the asset, data growth, which is continuing to grow at 30% to 40% per annum, and 5G coming, we believe, give us the opportunity that the underwriting criteria and the underwriting assumptions that we've made on these assets may prove to be much lower than the actual usage of the assets over the long term and, therefore, creates lots of opportunity for additional return well beyond what we're underwriting. And everything that we're seeing in the market today, what we saw throughout 2019 and all the conversations that we're having currently in 2020 and as the carriers, we think, were starting to see the early glimpses of real 5G activity as we head towards the end of 2020 give us a great deal of comfort that the lease-up is coming and the density with which we've underwritten these assets will be at least as good as what we've expected.
Daniel Schlanger:
And just building on that a little bit, Simon, we're still building about on activity levels, about 70% anchor builds and 30% lease-up. So we're continuing to add miles of fiber to accommodate the type of lease-up Jay is talking about. And what we think we're doing is getting those as kind of the first-mover advantage. So when we go into a market, we build that fiber, we're there. It does provide us a competitive advantage for getting that lease-up. And if we're right that the lease-up could be significantly more than what our underwriting has been, then we're just building more and more of that upside into our asset base as we go along. And therefore, one of the questions you asked is the node per mile, that really hasn't changed much. It's been in that neighborhood of 1 node per mile, on average, if you look at just the fact that we have 80,000 miles and about 70,000 nodes on air under construction. It hadn't change much because we keep building miles of fiber that we think is just embedding more and more of that upside that Jay was talking about.
Jay Brown:
Simon, did you have another question on that topic before I go on to fiber solutions?
Simon Flannery:
No. No. Go on, on the fiber, yes.
Jay Brown:
Okay. On the fiber solutions side, we continue to, I think, get better at running that business. As we talked about and Dan talked about specifically in the guidance for 2020, we're assuming similar level of net growth as we had in 2019, so about 3% growth in the business. We continue to believe that, that -- those are a very attractive form of -- and sources of revenues in the -- across the fiber assets as they add to the incremental yield across the assets. So we're getting -- I think we're getting better at both identifying and building a pipeline of future tenancy, and the strategy is playing out exactly as we thought. We're focused on the small cell opportunity. We think that's the biggest driver of the long-term returns of the fiber business. And along that -- as we're chasing the biggest opportunity and the biggest driver of returns, we want to supplement that with the opportunity of putting enterprise clients on the -- on that same fiber plant, and that's playing out similar to what we expected as we talked about it both last year and then going into 2020.
Operator:
Your next question comes from David Barder -- Barden from Bank of America.
Joshua Frantz:
It's Josh on for Dave. Verizon said they expect to deploy about 5x more small cells in 2020 versus last year. Maybe if you could provide any sort of insight as to what role you're playing in that, and maybe you can also speculate on how you think that's possible kind of given the permitting issues and the steady deployment volumes you guys are having. And then secondly, is there any relationship between the SEC subpoena and the restatement you did yesterday?
Jay Brown:
On your first question, Josh, I think -- I'm not going to comment specifically on Verizon or their plans. At least we try as much as we can to avoid speaking specifically to any one customer, what their build-out plans are. So I'd refer you there, to Verizon, to get more color on what they're expecting for '20. I would say, more broadly, I think their comments match what you hear from all of the wireless carriers, and that is the historical pace at which we've been doing small cells is nowhere close to the long-term demand for small cells and the need for small cells. The reality of the networks today, given the data traffic and the amount of spectrum that is today available or will in the future be available, the density required in the network is just not possible without the use of small cells. So macro sites continue to be the lowest cost, most efficient way for them to deploy spectrum and to handle data demand. But the density of those sites, we -- you just can't get them dense enough in order to meet the total market demand, which is why small cells are necessary. So I think you're going to see comments similar to Verizon, and others have made those kind of comments about the large-scale necessity of small cells. I know a lot of industry observers have made comments like, there's going to need to be well over 1 million small cells built over the next decade, and we certainly believe that to be the case. The last thing I'll say about that topic is we're not underwriting that we're going to continue to capture the same level of market share that we have historically. I think as we've talked about the business, we've been pretty clear that we've been capturing about 50% of the total activity in the market for small cells. We're not going to build fiber in every location in the U.S. in order to continue to keep pace with it. And I think from the carrier comments, I think there's an expectation that we have that the carriers are going to build small cells well beyond the top 100 markets in the U.S. in terms of total number of nodes that will ultimately get built. We may not follow them to all of those markets. The vast majority of our capital thus far has been invested in the top 25 markets and particularly in the top 10 markets in the U.S. And I think over time, the driver of our revenues and continued investment is more likely to be biased towards those top markets in the U.S. than it is everywhere in the U.S. And so as a -- as you see the total addressable market grow, and I think you will see it grow, we're going to be selective in terms of where both we invest the capital, and that investment of capital will drive kind of the subsequent view of how many nodes do we end up on our fiber. The trajectory, though, I think, is right in line with everything that I said in my prepared remarks about the drivers of 4G and 5G and the growth in data necessitates a significant increase in the number of small cell deployments relative to where we are today. So those kind of multipliers, when I hear our customers talk about that, I'm really encouraged about how we've positioned our business and give rise to the comment that I made around the optimism that I have, not just for 2020. But over the next decade, there's going to be a lot of growth. And I think we're very well positioned to capture a significant portion of that, both in terms of towers and on the fiber side as they spend on small cells.
Daniel Schlanger:
Yes. And Josh, let me just address the second part of your question, which was the relationship between the subpoena and the restatement. The clearest answer is they really don't have to do with each other. The subpoena is ongoing, and we will update when we have something to update. And it had to do -- as I mentioned in my statement, had to do with the capitalization policies we have in place around our installation services business. On the restatement, what I would say, though, is when we've gone through our year-end review and after having received that subpoena, we looked at all the policies around our installation services business. And like I mentioned, we remain comfortable with the capitalization policies we have in place. But what we did in conjunction with our independent auditor was we found a part of the installation services revenue recognition that was sufficiently technical and nuanced enough that we, with our internal auditor, decided that we needed to go seek some input from the Office of the Chief Accountant of the SEC. And having done that, we then figured out that we needed to restate because of a change -- or the way we had done it historically was not acceptable. So like I said, they're not related, but it did drive us down the path that led us to the OCA.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Jon Atkins with RBC.
Jonathan Atkin:
I wondered if you could maybe give a little bit of an update on edge compute and Vapor and kind of thoughts around those opportunities. And then as it pertains to your tower business, and I think we're still kind of working through the math as it pertains to the restatement, but you appear to be guiding towards a healthier leasing year this year compared to last year despite it being back-half weighted. So am I correct in that assertion? And if so, what's driving that given the back-end nature of this year?
Jay Brown:
Sure. On the first question around edge and Vapor, Vapor IO is a company that we made an investment in a couple of years ago. They're focused on edge computing and providing an ability to put small-scale data centers, if you will, at the very edge of the network, namely at the edge of the network means the tower sites. We made an investment in that a number of years ago because we believe there's significant opportunity in both managing data traffic and reducing the cost of the movement of that traffic as traffic grows and the interconnectivity of people who want to connect at the very edge of the network. And I think as we move towards 5G, it's going to open up even more opportunities at the edge, both for compute power and for connectivity of folks who want to get at the very edge of the networks. I think our tower sites are very well positioned to capture that opportunity. If you think about it on a base level around just a real estate play, the tower sites provide a location for the equipment to be located and to build these colocation facilities at the edge of the network. So I think tower sites are well positioned for that. And a significant amount of the overall wireless traffic is going to be going across those towers. So it makes logical sense to put these facilities at the edge of it, when you're putting them at the edge of the network to put them at the tower sites. The other component of our business, though, that I think will equally benefit is the fiber that we have. And I think as we move towards the 5G world and even as we're seeing in 4G, fiber becomes a vital inseparable part of the wireless networks. And the link, as the world moves much more towards C-RAN and O-RAN is to connect sites with fiber, both the macro sites and the small cells over fiber. And I think the assets that we have will grow in increasing value as that happens. And the synergies around those 2 assets, I think, open up opportunities for us uniquely for things like Vapor, and that's why we made the investment. I would say just as a -- the one cautionary part of this is it's still really early. So we're getting revenues from Vapor, and we've deployed a number of colocation facilities, but it's not a meaningful portion of our revenues. It's not driving our guidance yet, but we do think the returns and the opportunity are worthy of the investment that we made and the opportunity that lies ahead. If the world helps as we think it will, could 1 day be meaningful. So we're pretty excited about that. Your second question around the tower update, and Dan can step in if -- maybe a little more specifics, if that's where your question is going. The change in tower revenue is related to the effect of restatement. And we have maintained our assumption in terms of total leasing -- for total tower leasing activity for 2020 is the same as what we had previously when we gave our guidance for 2020. So we've shifted it to be a little bit more back-end loaded. But in terms of total activity, we don't actually see a slowdown year-over-year when compared to 2019, and that's pretty exciting. As I mentioned in my comments, 2019 was the highest level of tower leasing activity that we've had in a decade, more than a decade. And we think 2020 is shaping up to be similar in terms of its level of activity. So the uplift that you're referring to, I think, is just the effect of the restatement and the amortization of the deferred revenues that Dan was walking through in his earlier comments.
Jonathan Atkin:
And then on small cell tenancy growth as well as kind of build-to-suit activity, you talked about the 30-70 split. Is that relatively weighted evenly across national carriers? Or is it more of a narrower subset given the emphasis that one of your customers has on its One Fiber initiative?
Jay Brown:
Similar levels of activity across the industry. There is -- as I was making the comment in my -- a minute ago, I think, to Josh, as the carriers think about the deployment, they are focused, as our capital is focused, largely in the top 25, top 10 markets in the U.S. is where a preponderance of the focus and capital is going currently. So they're colocating. That's where most of the colocation would be. To the extent that we're making investments beyond that, the ratios would be a little bit higher in terms of new assets being built relative to colocation. So our more legacy assets would have higher levels of additional tenancy, and then our newer assets, as we go out from that core, obviously, would increase. But I wouldn't draw -- I would draw a distinction geographically rather than drawing a distinction among customers in terms of the type of activity that we're seeing.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Colby Synesael with Cowen & Company.
Colby Synesael:
Great. Two questions. One is, Jay, if you look out a year plus from now and you think about the T-Mobile-Sprint merger and what's happening with DISH, do you think there's a bigger opportunity for Crown specifically as it relates to your fiber business opposed to your tower business just given where those companies are in terms of their fiber build-outs and what they actually own? And then secondly, your commentary around this year being potentially more back-end loaded, when would you have to see the imprint in activity for that ultimately proved correct in terms of translating into revenue? And if we don't see that by that period of time, is there actually a risk that you might have to end up producing your 2020 guidance?
Jay Brown:
Sure. Colby, on your question, I think the opportunity, if you look at kind of the assets that we have and the scale of those assets and as we move from 4G into 5G, there's going to be a tremendous amount of opportunity on the tower side. And from -- just purely from a scale standpoint, nominal dollars, I think towers will still outpace what we see from a fiber and small cell standpoint. I do think, though, as we move towards -- as we move towards 5G and my comments around the density required in the networks, the returns, the incremental returns and the total returns on the assets over time, yes, I think we will be benefiting on fiber disproportionately relative to towers because of the total amount of activity relative to the size of the capital investment that we've made there. And that leads to kind of the upside opportunity that Dan and I have spoken a lot about and why we're in the business. Our returns on invested capital today of about 6% to 7% initially get pretty close to covering our cost of capital out of the gate. The incremental returns beyond that are very attractive. And as we've got these assets that we think are unique and very valuable over time as -- whether it's T-Mobile and Sprint or Verizon-AT&T or others, as they come across those assets, I think we're going to see a really nice increase in the yield on those assets over time. And that incremental change from kind of the 6% to 7% to the step to more than covering our cost to capital and delivering an equity return, that change in yield, I think, will be more significant around fiber and small cells than what it is in towers but believe towers is going to continue to do well as we see growth on the tower side. To your second question about the back-end nature of the year, I would go back to kind of a real basic of the way our business operates and how we think about our guidance for any given year. There are 3 buckets of revenue for which we're always looking forward to the next year and making sure that we sort of count them in order to come up with our outlook. The first bucket is leases that we signed in the previous year. So your question related to 2020, we look at all of the leases that we signed during 2019 and then turned on air during 2019 but only received a portion of the full year's revenues during 2019. So we turned to lease on in October of 2019. We only received 3 months of rent from that lease in 2019 but we'll receive 12 months of rent in calendar year 2020. So that looks like significant growth in 2020 from those leases that were turned on. The second bucket of activity is related to leases that we signed during 2019, and we know they're going to turn on air in 2020. And given the timing of how long it takes to turn on tower leases, now that sort of takes us through about halfway through calendar year 2020. So those leases have already been signed. We know where they're going. We know what we're going to be paid on those leases and we're just scheduling out those rents to be turned on. They had no contribution to 2019, but they're known today. And then the third bucket, which is by far the smallest bucket, is leases that we're working on today that ultimately will be turned on and will make some contribution to our revenues. Those generally will come on air the back half of this year, if not the fourth quarter of this year, as we go through the process. And we may not have perfect visibility of those, but that's why we give a range of revenue outcomes for the calendar year. It basically is making up for that third bucket of, okay, if we do really well, we come in at the high end of it. If we don't do quite as well, we come in towards the lower end of it. But that's a relatively small portion of the guidance. And relative to the activity level, the spread on the guide or the outlook is pretty wide in terms of what could happen with those leases because of the timing of them. And in totality, though, most of the revenues that we turn on this year are more known at this point. So that's probably the best way to think about how we gave our outlook and why we're comfortable saying we think the total leasing activity for calendar year 2020 is going to be pretty similar to 2019.
Colby Synesael:
So your point totally being that in that if you are -- go ahead.
Jay Brown:
No, go ahead, please.
Colby Synesael:
I was just kind of -- just make sure I understood it. So you -- the point Jay was making was that if you guys don't see the back -- the increase in activity, if you will, in the next quarter or 2 that translates into that more back-end loaded year come through the way that you're anticipating, you still are likely to be at that lower end is it that range being as wide as it is.
Jay Brown:
That's the way we think about putting together our outlook, correct. And it's why when we get on these calls and we start to talk about the business, we tend to zoom out really quickly. So we'll talk about the year, and then we start to talk about much more the long-term nature of the business, because whether those -- whether a license turns in -- on in October of 2020 or January of 2021, has very little impact on the total return. And it's why we talk about kind of our dividend growth of 7% to 8% annually over a long period of time and the reason why I circle back on kind of a decade-long look. Any one quarter is really not determinative in terms of how the business operates. We're much more driven by the macro trends of what are -- what is the need for investment, i.e., what is data growth, mobile data growth and then how are assets positioned relative to that. And as I look at the landscape, things like additional spectrum coming, the growth in data, a new entrant, all of those signs point towards much greater activity. And we'll kind of see how the year plays out. We think the range that we've given is a pretty good outlook of what we think the incremental activity will be towards the back half of the year. But regardless of where we fall in that range of the outlook, I think the dynamics and the underlying trends of the business look really positive over the long term.
Daniel Schlanger:
Colby, the only thing I was going to add is that there's more volatility on our services business than what Jay was talking about on the tower leasing. So if that comes to be, where the activity gets pushed out, it would come into our services business and may -- and that could impact 2020. And that's where we would -- if anything happen, it would be there. So we don't -- we actually see the activity coming back. We feel pretty comfortable with it. Otherwise, we wouldn't have affirmed our guidance, but that's where it would come -- you would see the impact.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Michael Rollins with Citi.
Michael Rollins:
Two, if I could. The first one is just going back to the economics of the network services business. If we walk away from the income statement and just think about for every $100 that a customer gives you for the full complement of network services, including any augmentations or reinforcements of your tower, how much of that -- after all those investments, all the people expenses, like on a net to cash basis, how much of that $100 do you get to keep in your pocket? And then the second question is that you mentioned the glide path to get back to 5x net debt leverage. Have you contemplated using equity to try to accelerate that glide path or increase your flexibility to augment other investments?
Daniel Schlanger:
Yes. So on the first one, Mike, I would say some in the neighborhood of $40 is what we would make after that $100, if you just say that's the cash that we come out with regard to the services business. On the glide path, I -- what I would say is we're committed to investment-grade rating, and we will get back to our 5x debt to EBITDA. We believe, as we pointed out, that based on the year that we have and the EBITDA growth that we expect throughout 2020, that we will get back to that 5x by the end of the year. If something changes, then we might have to use equity, as we've always said, as a way to fill any gap that happens between the amount of capital expenditures and dividends we have and the amount of leverage capacity we generate by increased EBITDA and the cash flow we generate through our AFFO. So we always have that option open, but we believe, at this point, that we have leveraged capacity and that the glide path works. But we are committed to investment-grade rating, and we'll do what we need to do in order to maintain it.
Jay Brown:
And Mike, you asked the question, the first question there, around kind of stepping back, which I think is -- I think it's helpful. I want to just take the question, step back even -- maybe even a step further from just the economics around services and talk a little bit about how do we think about services and the site rental components of our business. We pay our current dividend from the recurring cash receipts from site rentals. The services, and whether it's the deferred revenue amortization that Dan was discussing earlier in his comments or prepaid rent, all of those are related to activities that enable us to grow the dividend from its current level. As you know, and we've referenced it several times, we think we can grow the dividend over the long term 7% to 8% annually based on all the positive industry trends that I've been mentioning in my comments during the call. But with that growth comes the need for us to spend CapEx to both improve our existing assets and to build new assets. And we pass a portion of these CapEx costs to our customers in the form of upfront payments and services and other things, thereby, in essence, reducing our net required investment for growth. These upfront payments, they are not necessary to fund our dividend. So the cash margin, if you will, we don't think about that as funding our dividend. Or maybe said another way, if the growth in our business were to stop entirely, I would expect our dividend would continue at its current level. And then the CapEx, associated reimbursement, services, all of those would come down to a much lower level than what we're currently experiencing. So there's nothing about the restatement here that changes that dynamic. We sized historically and our current -- we size the dividend and we'll size the dividend payout based on the recurring cash components of our business. And then the elements that are more volatile or the net cash, as you kind of asked the question, those are just indications of growth that help offset the net capital investment that we need to make.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Ric Prentiss with Raymond James.
Richard Prentiss:
Two quick ones, I think, on the restatement and then one more strategic question. On the revenue side of the restatement, it goes into amortization of prepaid rent, amortization of deferred rent. Am I right in thinking that, that level in 2019 was now like $460 million, up $50 million year-over-year? And how much do we expect amortization of prepaid rent then would grow from 2019 to 2020?
Daniel Schlanger:
So first, the answer to your question is, yes, you're right. It goes through prepaid rent amortization. And to further, yes, you're right for $460 million in 2019, and that is $50 million of growth over 2018. We would anticipate that it grows in the neighborhood of $60 million to $65 million again into 2020. So the amount of prepaid rent amortization into 2020 is around $525 million.
Richard Prentiss:
Makes sense. And the other question, the restatement, is on the cost side. To Phil's question, you talked a little bit about how it is, capitalize those items you put on because it does help make the tower a better asset long term. But I assume that CapEx goes into growth CapEx and then gets depreciated, which would not be an AFFO, correct?
Daniel Schlanger:
That is true.
Richard Prentiss:
Okay. And then the more strategic one for Jay or whoever, CBRS is another interesting topic. You've talked about auction bands coming out. A lot of people looking at the CBRS auction coming up in June as a potential to see more indoor systems developed. What is your thoughts on CBRS and indoor? And would that be someplace that you might put capital to work? Or is there just so much opportunity in outdoor, not that interested?
Jay Brown:
Yes. We're really excited about the long-term opportunity that CBRS brings. And I would say we think there's opportunity, both indoor and for outdoor applications. I think initially, you're right, and the bias will be towards indoor applications initially. It's going to be interesting to watch these -- the private auctions for some of these licenses and what the opportunity is there. We also think that the open spectrum, the public spectrum that will be deployed, that there's opportunity for us to use the infrastructure that we own, both on the fiber, small cell and tower side, that there's going to be opportunities around that long term. The component of CBRS, that's the same. As you know, Ric, from everything that's happened in the past in terms of the deployment of spectrum is the broad deployment of spectrum, regardless of what name it gets, needs the infrastructure that we own. So we look at it and think maybe, initially, it may be more biased towards indoor, but we think there's outdoor applications. And over time, that spectrum will be used to meet the growing demand for mobile data, and that's likely to benefit well beyond venues or indoor applications.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Nick Del Deo with MoffettNathanson.
Nicholas Del Deo:
First, as we look ahead, is there any reason to think that you won't be able to monetize the coming wave of integration-related amendment activity at the same level as your peers? I know you don't like to comment on specific customers. But to put a finer point on it, I'm trying to understand if the capacity rights you granted to T-Mobile back in 2012 as a part of that acquisition remain a relevant consideration today.
Jay Brown:
Sure, Nick. No, I don't believe there's any reason why we won't be able to monetize that. It's been a few years since this was a significant topic of conversation on our earnings calls. But for the most part, we've burned through the space rights that our anchored tenants had on those transactions. And so I think it was somewhere in the 2018 time frame that we started talking about that, virtually, every new tenant that we had was generating additional revenues as they touch the tower, and that's still the case today. We haven't done any transactions that would've changed that. So I think as we see incremental touches, whether that's the form of -- in the form of first-time installments or new amendment activity, that's going to be driving revenue. And I think you can see from our results and expectations around 2019, 2020, that those elevated levels of activity are coming as a result of both amendments and new first-time installs.
Nicholas Del Deo:
Okay. That's good to hear. Second one on small cells. Can you talk a bit about the mix of spectrum bands that are underpinning the small cell bookings that you're taking today versus what it was a few years ago? I guess I'm trying to understand the degree to which deployment, just given the pipeline today, are primarily in higher frequency bands like millimeter wave versus midband.
Jay Brown:
I think initially, when we first went into the business, many people thought that the only areas where spectrum bands would be used on small cells were the millimeter wave. The reality is the carriers are using the small cells across all of the bands that they owned. And we will see in a, given geography, a carrier will oftentimes start their initial deployment with one spectrum band, build out small cells for that band and then come back and add additional nodes across that same run of fiber, thereby providing lease-up for us, if you will, and adding additional spectrum bands beyond their initial deployment. But the vast majority, as we talked about the number of small cell nodes that we both have built, the 40,000 that we've built and the 30,000 that are in the pipeline, almost all of those would be midband spectrum. We're not at the point yet where we're deploying significant numbers of millimeter wave small cells. I think that would be unmodeled upside, if you will. When we talk about the fact that we underwrote 4G deployments and build-outs, that's under the assumption that small cells would only be used for kind of midband spectrum. So millimeter wave and things that will be used for 5G, those are unmodeled upside in the way that we underwrote the assets.
Daniel Schlanger:
Yes. I think part of that, Nick, is because the carriers use small cells to offload some of the tower congestion. So whatever bands are on those towers can go onto the small cells because when a lot of people gather in one area, it takes up all the capacity the tower has, and putting small cells there then allows the tower to become useful again. And that does require a similar band and similar coverage that would happen with the tower. So we're seeing it across all spectrum bands, as Jay is talking about.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Batya Levi with UBS.
Batya Levi:
A couple of questions, first on the restatement. Can you just explain why the amortization of the tower installation work goes onto the site rental side as opposed to staying on the service side? And how much of the 5.9% organic growth for the quarter came from that amortization piece? And then secondly, you mentioned the services business being a little bit lumpier and soft right now. Can you talk about the profitability of it in the quarter, if there were any onetime expenses that really lowered the margin contribution? And lastly, on churn. I think churn picked up about 50 bps sequentially. Any items to call out there?
Daniel Schlanger:
Sure, Batya. I'll start with the first question you asked on site rental revenue versus services. Because the portion of the services that we are now deferring become a modification of the lease, they, therefore, become a portion of the site rental revenue as opposed to services. So it's the way the accounting works. It's how we were -- part of the reason that we went and discussed this with our auditors and ultimately with the OCA is because this is a nuanced accounting treatment. And where we end up is that to defer -- once we defer these revenues where we recognize that amortization is in site rental revenues. With regard to the amount of growth that's happening in site rental revenues in the fourth quarter, it's probably 50 basis points or so that's related to this restatement.
Jay Brown:
You want to do services profitability?
Daniel Schlanger:
Services.
Jay Brown:
Yes. On the services side, there weren't any onetimers in the quarter that drove an outcome either to the positive or to the negative for what we reported. We did not have any onetimers in the quarter. And I think the profitability we -- that you can see from the historical statements is what we would expect going forward. And then on the last question that you asked around churn, that -- we talked about it, I think, last quarter. Most of the churn has worked its way through in terms of we've received notice of the churn, but it wasn't reflected yet in the results. So the uptick was expected. And similar to the comments that I made around the buckets of revenue, those would be leases that went away late in the year that will have a full year impact in 2020. After you get -- through 2020, we expect that the amount of churn that we see in the business comes back down towards the lower end of our guide of 1% to 2% annually of churn. So we're working off the very end of the consolidation churn that happened from the carriers several years ago, and we think it'll go back to a more normalized level beyond that.
Daniel Schlanger:
And just to be clear on that, that is all tower churn that we're talking about there. So that increment came because the activity was on the towers, and everything that Jay said was around the tower side of business.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Tim Horan with Oppenheimer.
Timothy Horan:
Can we just focus on the fiber a little bit? Can you talk about the ability to leverage the conduit and fiber on the ground, maybe with other services? And what are you seeing from a competitive environment? And I guess by other services, are you trying to build out in areas where you can tie into office buildings, apartment buildings, [indiscernible] centers? And are you seeing anyone kind of overbuild in the areas that you're building out at this point? And I just had a quick follow-up.
Jay Brown:
Sure. When we decide to take on fiber projects, we look at holistically what we think total return on that fiber could be. The primary driver, as we said, of our strategy around fiber is based on what we believe will be necessary for the wireless networks, specifically what will be necessary for small cells. And as we look at that opportunity, that determines what markets, what areas of the country are of interest to us in terms of owning fiber assets, so heavily driven by what we believe the wireless opportunity is. As a component of that, though, we then start to look at -- once we've determined whether or not it's interesting from a wireless standpoint, then we want to capture as much revenues as we possibly can along that route path from universities, hospitals, large financial institutions or other enterprises that may need to use that fiber. But the strategic decision around where is driven by our assessment of what's necessary for wireless. And then from there, we want to maximize the return on the assets. So it's many customers as we can possibly get to use that asset, increases the yields and return on the asset, it makes sense for us to do. We're not seeing an overbuild of any material nature. The assets are really expensive to build. And to the extent there's existing assets there, we find that people allocate their capital to other places where the assets don't exist. I think what has become increasingly clear because of the amount of fiber that's necessary in order to build out small cells is there's no plant in the ground that can meet this need today. And so there needs to be a significant investment broadly across the entire U.S. in places where we will build and we won't build for dense, high-capacity fiber to be built because it doesn't exist today. And it's why our strategy, in terms of what we think the growth opportunities are, is much more leveraged towards the opportunity for us to build new fiber. We just don't see any opportunities to go out and acquire the fiber because it just -- it doesn't exist.
Timothy Horan:
And just a clarification, your 50% flow share on small builds, is that where you have infrastructure? Or is that -- do you think the entire market?
Jay Brown:
We think it's the entire market as we've measured it over the last several years. And we have time for one more question, operator.
Operator:
Our final question will come from Spencer Kurn with New Street Research.
Spencer Kurn:
So you disclosed your total share of revenue from your tenants. You've got about 20% from each of Verizon, AT&T and T-Mobile, about 15% for Sprint. I was wondering if you could provide some color on how that breaks down for small cells specifically. And do you skew towards any of the carriers?
Jay Brown:
The general answer is it's very similar in terms of small cells is what it is on the tower side. We're -- we've seen activity across all of the carriers on the small cell side.
Spencer Kurn:
Okay. And then one follow-up. It seems that T-Mobile and Sprint are likely to shift their focus towards macro towers over the next few years as they integrate their networks. Could you just provide some thoughts on how the merger impacts your view of your ability to ramp your small cells backlog over the next couple of years? Would it potentially stall growth? Or are you seeing enough demand outside of Sprint and T-Mo that you can grow through it?
Jay Brown:
Yes. You bet. I think there's 2 factors that -- in terms of broad assessment of what will happen with Sprint and T-Mobile over a long period of time, I think they will -- as they said publicly, they'll look to rationalize some sites where they have overlap, where both of them are located on the same site. I think they will rationalize some macro sites over time. As you know, we have pretty long-dated leases there, and some portion of those sites probably will be rationalized as they think about the network. But we think the amount of new sites that they will take on in order to build out and broadcast the spectrum bands that they'll be acquiring from Sprint as a part of the transaction, they're going to need a lot more macro sites, both because of spectrum that they're acquiring that is not currently broadcast today by Sprint and spectrum that is being broadcast that they may adjust the way their network plays out. And that broadcast of that spectrum will happen through a combination of both macro sites and small cells. And we think we're very well positioned to capture components of both of those and certainly very well positioned on the small cell side. As I think about kind of the broad opportunity with them, I would really go back to the comments that I made around the whole industry and the way that our assets are positioned relative to the demands coming from 4G build-out and 5G build-outs. And I think we're very well positioned with what we've done with T-Mobile to help them accomplish their goals of building out 5G. Well, I want to just thank, everyone, for joining the call this morning. Obviously, we expect 2020 to be another significant year of growth in cash flows and dividends that we're excited about and even more excited about the long runway of growth that sets up for us as we're sitting on the doorstep of another big investment cycle by our customers as 5G is coming. So thanks for joining the call this morning. Look forward to talking to you soon.
Operator:
Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. This concludes today's call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Good day, and welcome to the Crown Castle Q3 2019 Earnings Call. Today’s conference is being recorded.At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Ben Lowe. Please go ahead, sir.
Ben Lowe:
Great. Thank you, Samantha, and good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us today as we review our third quarter 2019 results. With me on the call this morning are Jay Brown, Crown Castle’s Chief Executive Officer; and Dan Schlanger, Crown Castle’s Chief Financial Officer.To aid the discussion, we have posted supplemental materials in the Investors section of our website at crowncastle.com that we will refer to throughout the call this morning. This conference call will contain forward-looking statements which are subject to certain risks, uncertainties and assumptions and actual results may vary materially from those expected. Information about potential factors which could affect our results is available in the press release and the Risk Factors sections of the company’s SEC filings.Our statements are made as of today October 17, 2019, and we assume no obligation to update any forward-looking statements. In addition, today’s call includes discussions of certain non-GAAP financial measures. Tables reconciling these non-GAAP financial measures are available in the supplemental information package in the Investors section of the company’s website at crowncastle.com.So, with that, let me turn the call over to Jay.
Jay Brown:
Thanks, Ben, and good morning, everyone.We delivered another quarter of strong financial results that reflect the significant demand we are seeing for our shared infrastructure assets. I believe our strategy and unmatched portfolio of 40,000 towers and 75,000 route miles of fiber concentrated in the top U.S. markets, has positioned Crown Castle to generate growth in cash flows and dividends both in the near-term and for years to come.Steady execution against this strategy is resulting in consistent dividend growth. As we increased our annualized common stock dividend by 7% to $4.80 per share, in line with what we believe our AFFO per share growth will be in 2020.Over the last five years, and inclusive of the increase we announced yesterday, we have grown the dividend at a compounded annual growth rate of approximately 8%, while investing heavily in assets that we believe will generate significant growth over the long term. Dan will discuss the results for the quarter and the full year 2020 outlook in a bit more detail. So, I want to focus my comments this morning on two key points.First, new leasing activity across our business is expected to be higher in 2020 than in 2019, including activity in our tower business remaining at the highest level in more than a decade. And second, I’m excited about the long runway of growth for Crown Castle as 4G investment remains robust and the deployment of 5G is just getting started.On the first point, in 2019, we are seeing a significant acceleration in tower leasing, as our customers add capacity to their wireless networks in response to the rapid growth in mobile data traffic. The current demand environment is largely tied to our customers investing heavily in their 4G networks to keep pace with 30% to 40% annual data demand growth.As you can see in our outlook for 2020, we expect the elevated level of tower leasing to continue into next year. As 5G becomes a reality and wireless networks expand from connecting everyone to connecting everything, we believe new use cases will develop that will generate significant long-term demand for our infrastructure, with towers remaining at the core of the wireless network.As I think back on my time at Crown Castle over the last 20-plus years, there have been significant advances in the broader wireless industry like the rapid deployment of technology that has taken us from tracking mobile penetration rates and voice minutes with 1G to the current 4G unlimited data plans that feed a seemingly insatiable demand for data from consumers.And now the industry is in the beginning stages of what is likely to be the next decade long investment cycle with the deployment of 5G, which brings with it the promise of a step function change and the role that wireless networks will play in supporting the digital economy going forward.While technologies have changed, there has been one constant
Daniel Schlanger:
Thanks, Jay. Good morning, everyone. As Jay mentioned, we delivered another great quarter results, that sets us up to finish 2019 on a strong note and provides a solid foundation for 2020.Our third quarter results were positively impacted by higher services contribution and lower sustaining capital expenditures than we had expected. So this is just timing-related. So our full-year expectations for both remain unchanged.During the third quarter, we also continue to improve our financial flexibility by taking advantage of favorable market conditions to proactively lock in attractive long-term interest rates and extend the weighted average maturity of our outstanding debt to nearly seven years.We finished the quarter with leverage or five times debt-to-EBITDA, which is consistent with our investment-grade credit profile.Turning to our full-year 2019 and 2020 outlook on Slide 5 of the presentation. There are a few items I would like to highlight. First, the 2019 outlook remains unchanged from our prior outlook.Second, the 2020 outlook assumes the proposed merger between T-Mobile and Sprint closes prior to the end of the first quarter 2020.And lastly, in 2020, relative to 2019, we expect a similar contribution to growth from towers, a consistent number of small cell deployments with approximately 10,000 nodes constructed and consistent contribution to growth from fiber solutions.Also, please note the 2020 outlook reflects the impact of the mandatory conversion of preferred stock that we anticipate occurring in August 2020. The conversion will increase the diluted weighted average common shares outstanding for 2020 by approximately 6 million shares, and reduce preferred stock dividends paid by approximately $28 million when compared to 2019.In addition, we increased our annualized common stock dividends by – per share by 7% from $4.50 per share to $4.80, tracking the expected growth in AFFO per share.Moving to Slide 6, we expect approximately $245 million of growth in site rental revenues from 2019 to 2020 at the midpoint, consisting of $285 million of organic contribution to site rental revenues, offset by a change in straight line revenues for approximately $40 million.With these expectations, we anticipate consolidated contribution – organic contribution to site rental revenues of approximately 6% in 2020. Consisting of 5% organic growth from towers, inclusive of 3% contribution from escalators offset by 2% churn, 15% organic growth in our small cell business, inclusive of 1.5% contribution from escalators offset by 1% churn and 3% organic growth from our fiber solutions, inclusive of 9% churns and no contribution from escalators.As it relates to the expected tower churn in 2020, the 2% remains at the high-end of our long-term 1% to 2% range, as the last of the acquired network churn is expected to occur in late 2019, having an impact on 2020 financial results.Turning to Slide 7, I’d like to briefly walk through the expected AFFO growth from 2019 to 2020 of approximately $210 million at the midpoint of the outlook. The growth is primarily driven by the organic contribution to site rental revenues growth of approximately $285 million at the midpoints, which is partially offset by an approximately $90 million increase in cash expenses.This increase in expenses is a combination of the typical cost escalations in our business, including lease escalations and cost of living adjustments, and the direct expenses associated with new leasing activity. The balance of the changes relates to the expected contribution from network services and other items that are primarily related to changes in financing costs.To support this growth, we expect our overall discretionary capital expenditures in 2020 to be around $1.7 billion, or around $1.3 billion net of capital contributions from our customers. Based on our expected cash flow growth and the incremental leverage capacity that growth will generate, we believe we can finance this level of spending without issuing equity.In closing, we’re excited about the positive growth trends driving demand for our tower and fiber assets. Looking forward, we believe we’re in a great position to continue delivering on our annual dividend growth target of 7% to 8%, while at the same time making significant investments in our business that we believe will generate attractive long-term returns and support future growth.Before taking questions, I want to address one other item. As you saw in our 8-K filed yesterday, we received a subpoena from the SEC in September requesting certain documents from 2015 through the present, primarily related to our capitalization and expense policies for tenant upgrades and installations in our services business.Additionally, we have previously provided information to the SEC relating to certain of our service-related vendor transactions, which are not material in amount. The subpoena requires us to produce certain documents, but is not a finding that any violation of law has occurred. We believe our longstanding capitalization and expense policies are appropriate, and we will, of course, cooperate fully with the SEC, including in connection with their review of those policies.With that, Samantha, I’d like to open the call to questions.
Operator:
Thank you. [Operator Instructions] Our first question will come from Simon Flannery with Morgan Stanley.
Simon Flannery:
Great, thank you very much. I appreciate it. So just following up on the SEC, do you have any sense on timing of when you’ve got to get back to them and when you might hear some more clarity around what exactly they’re looking for here?And then on the outlook for next year, you talked about the small cell business being similar to this year. Any more clarity around your ability maybe to revisit an acceleration to clear up some of the zoning and other issues to get if it’s not next year, at least, in the other years to get back to that sort of 15,000-type number over time? Thank you.
Jay Brown:
Sure. Good morning, Simon. On your first question, we don’t have any indication of timing. So, as Dan mentioned, we’ll fully cooperate with the requests that have been made of us, and we’ll work through the process as appropriate.On the second question around small cells, we do think as we talked about extensively on the last quarter call, we’re seeing meaningful amount of delays from both municipalities and utilities in certain jurisdictions around the country where we’re trying to deploy small cells, which has caused the timeline – expected timeline to extend from what we had previously seen around 18 to 24 months to now a range of about 18 to 36 months.And we’re working that on a number of different fronts in terms of trying to come up with a stall on how do we do that more quickly and work through the process more quickly with municipalities and utilities. But I don’t have at this point any update or more positive perspective.I think, we still believed, as we sit here today, the timeline is going to be 18 to 36 months, and the activity that we’re giving for 2020 on the call this morning reflects that timeline of 18 to 36 months, and to the extent that we do have some breakthroughs on that front, we’ll certainly update you.
Simon Flannery:
Great. And any change to your backlog on [Multiple Speakers].
Jay Brown:
Well, on the backlog, we did, as we talked about, that’s up to 70,000 small cells on the backlog. So, we put about 2,500 on roughly during the third quarter, and then we took on some new orders so that the total pipeline and constructed small cell nodes went from 65,000 to 75,000 from second to third quarter of this year.
Simon Flannery:
Okay. Thank you.
Daniel Schlanger:
Yes, Jay, just to be clear, that number is 70,000 of the ones that are on air and under development, which is around 40,000 on air and 30,000 under development, which as Jay mentioned, you can see that we added both of those numbers in the quarter.So we had some bookings in the quarter that I think are indicative of what Jay was talking about earlier, which looking at the big picture of all this, it does feel like and we’re a little frustrated about it, too that it’s taking longer to put these on air than we would have anticipated at this point. But we’re really in the early innings of this whole roll out of small cells and really haven’t gotten into 5G.So, what we’re looking at is, how can we make this business sustainable and scale it, because we believe the activity levels are there and will continue to grow, and we think we’re making progress on that front. But as Jay mentioned, we – there are going to be some hurdles we need to get over, and we’re working really hard to get over them.
Simon Flannery:
Thanks a lot.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question will come from Philip Cusick with JPMorgan.
Richard Yong Choe:
Hi, this is Richard for Phil. Wanted to get an update on your current thoughts around incremental opportunities around data centers or towers or nodes, and along with that alternative connectivity solutions such as directly connecting Crown at one Wilshire to other networks, so bypassing meet me rooms? Thank you.
Jay Brown:
Yes. I think at this point, the strategy that we’ve undertaken is the core of our focus. So we’re focused on the components of the network related to towers and fiber, particularly around small cells. We think that the vast majority of the opportunity is going to lie in those two areas, as the world goes through what I talked about in terms of the fourth industrial revolution.We have, as you know, we’ve made some investments around edge data centers in vapor, and we’re continuing to watch that space. We think there’s opportunity not only to create potentially a lease-up business by utilizing the space at the very edge of the network, which we would have as a result of our investments in small cells and towers, but it also gives us a perspective on kind of where the world is going.So, at this point, I really don’t see data centers playing a significant role in our long-term strategy. We think the opportunity for us really relies around towers and the use of fiber for small cells, and then utilizing that same asset for, as I mentioned in my comments, for other customers like hospitals and universities and other users that need high bandwidth fiber.
Richard Yong Choe:
Great. Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question will come from David Barden with Bank of America.
David Barden:
Hey, guys, thanks a lot for taking the questions. I’ve got a few. But I guess, the first one would be on the Sprint/T-Mobile merger assumption. Could you kind of talk us through how you landed on choosing to assume it closed in the first quarter? And kind of what does it contribute to the guide incrementally if it didn’t happen at the quarter or happen at all? Thanks.
Jay Brown:
Sure. I think we needed to make an assumption, obviously, as we went through the guidance portion, and based on the approvals of the DOJ and the FCC of the transaction, we believe the industry is operating under the assumption that the deal is going to close in the first quarter of next year.I think, as we think about the business and as we sit down to do the outlook each year in October for the following year, I think it’s important to keep in context how our business operates and how it works. We oftentimes talk about how few inflection points we have in the business.And the reason for that is, because how – because of the amount of visibility that we gain into the business, we think about the 2020 outlook and talk specifically about kind of the leasing component of that. It’s a combination of three components as we sit down and try to figure out what we’re going to do for the year.One, it would be the leases that have commenced during 2019 that are contributing to our results in calendar year 2019, but didn’t contribute to the full-year of 2019. So as we go over into 2020, we get a full 12 months contribution from all of those leases that were signed to commence during calendar year 2019, that adds to growth.The second component would be leases that we signed during 2019, but they won’t actually turn on until 2020. So those leases are committed, they’re signed. We know when they’re going on air roughly. And that would be the second component of our – of how we lay out the outlook.And then the third component, and the smallest component of the contribution to growth in any given year is the leases that will sign in the next calendar year in the year that we’re giving guide to. And some component of those leases that are signed next year, those will commence in the second-half and all likelihood towards the second-half of next year. That’s a relatively small component of the guidance.So one of the things that we used to say and we haven’t talked about in a long time, but still true. In any given year when we get to this point of thinking about the next year of our guide around site rentals revenue growth, a very significant percentage of the 6% growth that Dan was speaking about in his comments, we already have visibility to and, in many cases, more than half of that is probably already signed by customers, or is already producing revenue in our statements today, and we’ll get the benefit of a full-year of it next year. So that’s on the site rental side.And then on the services side, as we start to think about it, there’s two components of the services business. There’s the installation component where we’re project managing the work for carriers, and that benefits from all of the leases that have been signed in this year that will get installed next year and then some component of what gets done in 2020 that we don’t have visibility to yet, but leases that we think will sign.And then the last component would be around preconstruction work that we do, or what we often call site development services. And that is pre-work that’s done. So we would be doing the site development services today for leases that are going to go on in 2020. And then we’ll do some work in 2020 for preconstruction work. The construction work won’t even be done until 2021.So when we look at all of those elements, it gives us a tremendous amount of visibility into the business, which is why we guide in October of every year for the next calendar year, because significant portions of it are known today. So – and I know U.S. specifically about how we think about Sprint/T-Mobile. Dave, you followed us for a long time. So you know, we don’t like to talk about specific customers and don’t want to do that on the call.But that’s how we built up our outlook in any given year. And we did that consistently for 2020 as to what we’ve done in prior years. And then to put a finer point on it, we thought for sure someone would ask us, what did we do with the Sprint/T-Mobile merger? And so the assumption that we made was that, it goes on in the first quarter.But I think the explanation more broadly of how we think about the outlook and what drives that outlook should help folks understand kind of the visibility that we have towards that outlook. And then to the extent, there’s a development broader in the space that changes – forces us to need to change the assumption that we’ve made here. We’re happy to come back and give you that update to our outlook when it occurs, or when certain development necessitates us or revisiting our assumption.
David Barden:
All right.
Daniel Schlanger:
Just to add one point of clarity to that, David, is that, as Jay mentioned, the three components that can add to new leasing activity in the subsequent year that we’re giving guidance for, and that last one, he talks about leases that we would sign in the year and put on in the year that would impact the financial statements in 2020, that’s the smallest piece. And that’s what we would be talking about if there were a significant change in either the timing or outcome of the T-Mobile and Sprint burger. It’s what we would be signing next year and would go on air next year. So that’s the, like you said, it’s a smaller portion of what could impact the leasing activity from the tower side.
David Barden:
Awesome. And thanks for that, guys. And I guess, maybe a second question would be just on the small cell lease-up side. So you’ve been talking about kind of 2019 and 2020, kind of looking roughly similar in terms of no deployments, presumably. And then the lease-up in revenue terms is also pretty similar.I was wondering why the leasing incremental revenue on the small cell business wouldn’t be higher, because if you’re going to deploy the same amount this year, as you did last year, but you’ve got the opportunity to lease-up last year systems for incremental tenants. We should be seeing kind of a revenue acceleration in dollar terms rather than flat. Is there something I’m missing in that equation?
Jay Brown:
I don’t think you’re missing anything in the equation, David. I think, what is happening is the timing of the new nodes going on air in 2020 is back-end loaded, which results in not having as much contribution to the new leasing activity in the year. But we believe that that will over time come into play.
David Barden:
Okay, got it. All right. Thanks, guys.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question will come from Jonathan Atkin with RBC Capital Markets.
Jonathan Atkin:
Thanks. Couple of questions. So as you laid out the components of guidance for 2020 in these different buckets, where do MLAs play a role? Is that strictly in the escalator, or is there a portion of that in leasing?And then related to guidance and David Barden’s question, I guess, just to kind of put a finer point on it. You do – it sounds like you do assume some modest amount of integration-related CapEx in 2020. Is that correct?
Daniel Schlanger:
On the MLAs component and this – and I know, you know this, Jonathan. But just for the broader audience, oftentimes, the term MLAs is used to describe agreements that we strike with the customers, where they make committed levels of activity to us. Oftentimes, those are over multi-year periods of time.We generally do not assume and have not assumed anything with regards to this outlook, with regards to new customer agreements in our outlook for 2020. So it’s business as usual, if you will, in terms of how we’re contracting with customers and the activity that the activity that we’ve baked into that outlook.I’m not sure I understand your question, the second one. Could you rephrase it, or ask it in a different way?
Jonathan Atkin:
Yes, yes. If two carriers were to merge before March of 2020, presumably they would embark on some integration-related CapEx that might lead to elevated amendment revenues, let’s say, as one carrier deploys 2.5 and the other deploys lower. Different spectrum is going to get cross-pollinated onto the different sets of assets. So that could lead to maybe a little bit of a higher pace of amendment revenues next year. So the question is, is that – it sounds like that’s contemplated in your guidance, but to Dan’s comment, it’s the smallest part of your guidance. Is that a fair characterization?
Jay Brown:
Yes. I think, obviously, as we noted, we are assuming that the T-Mobile, Sprint merger happens in the first quarter. And I think broadly, the industry is working and thinking under that assumption. The pause that I would have and I think consideration of this – that’s important is, in the activity cycle of the deployment of what’s coming and obviously when you listen to Sprint and T-Mobile talk about the rationale for the merger and you listen more broadly to all of the players in the space, the capital spending is going to start to transition here in the next 18 to 24 months from largely being focused on 4G to 5G.And those activities, while they will start in the next 18 to 24 months really in earnest, this is going to be a decade long, we believe, investment cycle that will go through with the carriers. And trying to put a really fine point on which quarter that activity actually starts in and what the scale of that activity is, we have proven, I think, to ourselves over 20 years of trying to do this, that it’s nearly impossible for us to be that precise.And so we generally talk about the business, think about the business, manage the business, over kind of year, year-plus cycles. And I think, as we get into 5G, I think, what you will hear us talk significantly about is that the wireless carriers will go out and touch the sites that they’re on already and upgrade that technology towards 5G and commensurate with that some of the comments that I made, I think you will also see them increase the density, particularly in the top 30 markets in the U.S., where there’s greater density of users in order to provide 5G and 5G is going to require a greater density of the network, we think that will really benefit small cells.And then the last phase of it will be identification around the macro sites, where you see carriers come back and try to find opportunities to put in additional antennas and lines and macro sites that they’re not on existing. So I do think to your point, I do think you’re right that we’ll see in the early stages, kind of amendment activity to existing leases. But I think that’s going to happen over a very, very long period of time, I think decade, rather than trying to put a finer point on a quarterly outcome.
Jonathan Atkin:
And then lastly, related to new business, the – there may be auctions that take place perhaps in the C-band at some point in the first part of next year. And then as – and then unrelated to that, there’ll be this sort of mandated force network that gets built out as part of DOJ’s approval, the deal. So I wondered how much or what are the timelines to sort of contemplate? And do we see any of that in 2020 around C-band deployments and then maybe a mandated forced network deployment, or was that not part of what you are thinking when you give your initial outlook?
Jay Brown:
I think as we think long-term about the network, certainly that we would expect that the FCC will continue to go down the path of trying to make additional spectrum bands available. I think they have been really clear and all of the research has shown that despite the significant amount of investment that’s going to happen around densifying the networks, there’s not enough capacity in the existing spectrum bands to meet the demand that’s going to come both from consumers and industry around the deployment of 5G.So I think we will see the C-band as an example of that. I think there are multiple other examples that are being talked about in terms of coming to auction. But I think even beyond what’s contemplated today, I think, we’re going to see over the next decade additional spectrum bands freed up and come to market.And as those bands get freed up, the absolute best thing, best place to be as an infrastructure provider, is when there’s a combination of new spectrum being deployed, or a spectrum that has previously been fallow and that ends up in the hands of a provider, whether that logo is known to us today or otherwise. And that provider then has either an incentive as mandated by the FCC to get it to deployed, or has a business interest and economic desire to get that spectrum deployed.And when those two things come together an opportunity to – and capital to invest in the network, along with new spectrum bands, that goes really well for our industry and has for a long period of time. As we contemplate the guidance that were given this morning, we’re not assuming that there are additional spectrum bands that are given in the next 12 months, as we think about 2020 back to my earlier point around what contributes to that. That would really have to be known today. And we would already have leases, to the extent, that it was any of those things that I’m talking about now, that would be very small and frankly, pretty much inconsequential to our guide.But I wouldn’t dismiss that in terms of the long-term benefit that those things are going to bring to our business. We think those are significant. And if we think about the upside from the investment that we’ve made around fiber and our longstanding assets that we have on towers, both of those assets are going to benefit significantly, as additional spectrum brands are deployed over the long-term.
Jonathan Atkin:
Thank you very much.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question will come from Michael Rollins with Citigroup.
Michael Rollins:
Hi, good morning. Just going back to the FCC inquiry. Is the accounting that you use for tenant upgrades and installation similar or the same as your competitors, and you know, they’ve also received a similar request?And then maybe just moving over to the network services business more broadly, how would you look at the potential for the gross profit that you’re generating from that business to be similar or greater over time to the current level? And is there a framework that you use to sort of measure what that might look like relative to the underlying activity for leasing within the financials that you report? Thanks.
Jay Brown:
Sure. On your first question, I can’t speak to the accounting of our peers, or whether or not they’ve received a letter.On the second question around services gross profit over time, historically, this has basically tracked leasing activity in the tower business, the amount of services that we perform are really small outside of the tower business. So virtually all of the gross profit that we have comes from the tower business.And as I mentioned in my earlier comments, there are two primary things that we do for the wireless carriers in the services business. And I’ll do this sequentially not in order of scale. The first thing that we do for carriers would be what we would call site development services.Those would be things that are preconstruction. There are things like site acquisition, application fees and other things that we do prior to actually beginning the construction process for a new tenant. And whether that new tenant is an amendment to an existing lease or a brand new installation on the tower, we will do some of that work for them of preconstruction. That represents, I think in 2018, that represented about 40%, roughly of the total services activity that we had.The 60%, which would be the second component of it, is the project management of actually installing their equipment on our sites. And in that regard, we’re providing project management services to tenants as they’re wanting to install the equipment, whether it’s again amendments or brand-new leases.There have been occasions over time, where the growth in our gross profit has been a function of us capturing greater percentages of that – of the activity in periods, where activity and towers was relatively light, if you go back historically, lighter than levels today, at times, people will come into that business and they will bid the price and the margins really tightly. And we’ll walk away from some of that business, because we just don’t see margins in it.In periods of time where activity is more robust, there are times when we capture a higher percentage of it. So it generally tracks activity, but not perfectly. So if you look at the increase in services gross profit over the last several years, you can basically track that to our continued increase in activity around tower leasing activity.And as we’ve mentioned a couple of times this morning, we’re in 2019 and we think will be again in 2020. In terms of tower leasing activity, we’re at the highest level we’ve seen in more than a decade. And so our services business is obviously tracking with that.
Michael Rollins:
And it seems like in 2019, you may have gotten a little bit of a multiplier on that gross profit growth relative to the – the gross profit growth network services relative to the movement if we measure activity by just the internal leasing dollars. Is that fair, or is there more to unpack to try to get at the change in activity relative to the change in gross profit?
Jay Brown:
Yes. There is a bit of a – that’s why I made my comments about there – it’s not single dimension. We did benefit from 2018 into 2019. We’ve captured a higher percentage of both preconstruction work, as well as installation work. So we’ve grabbed some market share there during 2019 relative to 2018. So it’s a combination of the activity and a little bit higher market share.
Michael Rollins:
Thanks.
Jay Brown:
You bet.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question will come from Colby Synesael with Cowen and Company.
Jonathan Charbonneau:
Great. This is Jon on for Colby. Thanks for taking the questions. Within the fiber business, can you talk about the bookings trends you witnessed in the third quarter versus maybe the second quarter? And you believe there’s some potential that the 3% growth for 2020 could ultimately prove conservative? Thank you.
Jay Brown:
Yes. We saw the business continued to perform well. Into the third quarter, it obviously came in line with our expectations. You saw from the numbers that we gave on a – on an incremental basis in 2020, our midpoint of growth $165 million, compared to $150 million in 2019 off that larger asset, off the larger revenue base, the growth is still 3%, which is where we guided.I think our outlook for that and guidance around it, as we’ve said a couple of times this morning, is that 3%. We feel good about that. We believe we can sustain that over a long period of time, and we’re doing everything we can to increase it. As I look at the quality of the fiber and where it’s located and the opportunity there, that fiber is running right past a significant addressable market that I believe our fiber could provide services to. And I think as we get better at the business, I’m hopeful that we will be able to increase it and see an opportunity.Our 2020 outlook is a balanced view of what we think the best thing that could happen to us, the worst things that could happen to us and trying to weigh a number of different assumptions around it. And as we get into 2020, if we figure out a way to do a little better in the business, we’ll certainly update you.
Jonathan Charbonneau:
Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question will come from Ric Prentiss with Raymond James.
Richard Prentiss:
Hey, good morning, guys.
Jay Brown:
Good morning.
Richard Prentiss:
Hey, a couple of questions, if I could. Jay, I think you mentioned that the change in the straight line adjustment for 2020 looks like about maybe $40 million improvement there. We have been expecting maybe more like $100 million change there. It looks like T-Mobile now is more like six years versus five years. But how should we think about that change? And also, as we look into maybe 2021, are we expecting a bigger change from straight line adjustment as we go from 2020 to 2021 and get that to be a positive adjustment since cash is so important to look at?
Jay Brown:
So, Ric, let me take that one.
Richard Prentiss:
Sure.
Daniel Schlanger:
The – that – what it adds to that straight line, as you know, is extension of current leases and signing new leases. And we believe that the combination of those two activities will lead to an additional $40 million straight line revenue.I can’t really – I don’t – I can’t really speak to your expectation of $100 million compared to that number. But we believe that what we’ve captured in there is a new leasing activity that we expect in our guidance and our outlook. And then included in that, like I said, as the extension of current leases to the extent that, that happens.And looking into 2021, we – we’re just giving guidance for 2020 now. So we can get into that when we start talking about 2021 and how it all may look out. But right now, what we’re talking about, as we mentioned at the midpoint of around $40 million for 2020.
Richard Prentiss:
Sure. In the supplement, you do give a little extra detail, but obviously, it’s a static picture, as far as what the adjustment between book and straight line is. So that’s kind of where we’ve gotten the early indication on 2020. And thinking on 2021, so that’s what I’m just trying to get. I know you don’t give guidance on 2021, but you do provide in that supplement some extra kind of color?
Daniel Schlanger:
That supplement, as you pointed out, is a snapshot in time as of our business that relates to our business as of September 30, 2019. And it will move depending on what happens with the business as we sign new leases and extend new leases. So that that’s why we give it, because we want to get as much detail as we can. But looking into the future, we want to give that as part of our outlook, not as a static picture.
Richard Prentiss:
Sure. The second question is amortization of prepaid rent looks like that amortization prepaid rate went up maybe about $25 million from 2018 to 2019. As we look at your 2020 guidance, should we assume a similar increase of maybe $25 million more or less, just trying to think of what the amortization of prepaid rent contribution is in 2020?
Daniel Schlanger:
Yes. First, that’s about right. It’s in that neighborhood from 2018 to 2019. And we believe that going into 2020, it’ll be a little higher, but not anything that would be material.
Richard Prentiss:
Okay. And then the last one, Dan, you mentioned on churn, on the tower side be up at that 2% level in 2020 because of kind of wrapping up the acquired network churn late 2019. How much dollars are left in there? So we just kind of get a sense of what that is as we get to the finish up 2019 into 2020 on a dollar basis?
Daniel Schlanger:
Well, what we’ve seen now is that, we think we’ve taken almost all of it at this point. And it’ll just be the flow through from the activity that we’ve already seen going into the remainder of this year and then into 2020. And it’s most of the difference between our – what will be normalized at 1% and where we are now at about 2%. And therefore, as we get into the back-end of 2020, we think that that number of incremental churn will come down and we’ll get closer to the lower-end of our 1% to 2% long-term guidance.
Richard Prentiss:
Makes sense. So long-term, more like 1% what you’re seeing in the historical asset, any other acquired networks, et cetera?
Daniel Schlanger:
I think that’s fair. It’s within that range and we’ll be on the lower-end of that range as opposed to higher-end of that range.
Richard Prentiss:
Great. That helps. Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question will come from Nick Del Deo with MoffettNathanson.
Nick Del Deo:
Hi, thanks for taking my questions. Dan, can you walk us through the mechanics of what gets expensed and what gets capitalized on the services business?
Jay Brown:
Sure, Nick. We – I want to take a step back and just talk about that generally as how we think about capitalization. And what we do and I think this is what any company does, but it’s basically looking at what are the expenditures that add to the long-term value of an asset can generate future revenues on an asset. Anything that does that, we will capitalize. To the extent that we are making expenditures that, for instance, are more maintenance in nature, but do not add to the long-term revenue-generating potential that asset we will expense.
Nick Del Deo:
Okay. Are you capitalizing costs – so does that mean you’re capitalizing cost incurred for the services business to PP&E, like tower improvements?
Jay Brown:
So, Nick, like I said, we capitalize the cost that add to the long-term nature of the asset. And I think you’re going to appreciate that, given where we are with our discussions right now. We don’t want to get into a lot more detail here.
Nick Del Deo:
Okay, understood. Maybe switching gears then, one on the small cell front. As we think about the lengthening installing frame, are there any exit clauses in customer contract if you’re not able to deliver the small cells in a given timeframe? I recognize that they may not choose to exercise them, because waiting might be a better option than exiting, but I’m kind of curious if they’re there?
Jay Brown:
I’m sure they have an exit should we not perform appropriately under the contract, but these are committed contracts. So to the extent that we’re performing appropriately, we’re not on the hook based on certain barriers like municipalities and utilities that would make the timeline very, very long. So I think, as we talk about the contracted base of small cells that we have, we don’t view those at risk as long as we can get them on air at some point.
Nick Del Deo:
Okay, got it. Thanks, guys.
Jay Brown:
You bet.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question will come from Batya Levi with UBS.
Batya Levi:
Thank you. A couple of questions. Just going back on the guidance, given that you’re expecting a similar organic growth in macro next year, and this includes a small amount from new leases that could be signed when the deal closes. Can you provide more color on what type of activities think actually could slowdown to make for that difference? And maybe any thoughts on commercial availability of CBRS, if you’re seeing any increased activity from the carriers as they deploy that?And a final question on the discretionary CapEx. It looks like it’s a little bit lower versus 2019. Can you talk about what’s driving that reduction?
Jay Brown:
Sure. On the first point, I really don’t want to get into a specific customer guidance around what we expect in calendar year 2020. We’ve tried to frame this in a way that that’s helpful and shows the relatively minimal amount of activity that would happen in 2020 and how that would flow through to the guide that we’ve given.So I’m not sure I can add much color to that. We certainly assume that during 2020, we’ll see new macro leases across the portfolio and across the industry, and those will have some contribution in 2020. But those leases will frankly have more meaningful contribution to our 2021 results.On CBRS, we are watching that activity. There is some of it, but it’s not material to the results today. We don’t expect that it will be material to our results in 2020 and the outlook that we’re providing. Initially, I think most of the CBRS activity appears to be focused in building.So we’re seeing some of that in the venue opportunities that we have and may – and that may contribute there, but it’s really small at this point and not a material driver of the business.
Daniel Schlanger:
On the discretionary capital, Batya, the reduction really is to – is related to what we believe will take – it will take to put on air all of the assets that we believe will generate the new leasing activity that we have coming into 2020. And we believe that’s just lower in 2020 than it is in 2019. As you know, there was a step up in activity going into 2019 and we’re leveling out of it in 2020. And what the result of that is a slightly lower capital expenditure profile what we’re seeing in 2019.
Batya Levi:
Okay. One just follow-up. Can you give us a rough split of the fiber and the small cell revenue base as we exit the year? Is it more like 80% fiber, 20% small cells?
Daniel Schlanger:
Yes. It’s closer to 70% fiber, 30% small cell going into 2020 than it is the 80%, 20%.
Batya Levi:
Okay. All right. Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question will come from Robert Gutman with Guggenheim Securities.
Robert Gutman:
Yep. Thanks for taking the question. The site leasing – fourth quarter site leasing revenue implied, given year-to-date progress and even at the high-end of full-year guidance. It seems like the fourth quarter implication is pretty flat versus third quarter just a hair higher. As you know, we think about fourth quarter usually being seasonally stronger. So can you talk about – a little bit about the timing through the year there? And maybe pull into that a little bit about, we – how you see order activity in the second-half of the year versus the first-half of this year?
Jay Brown:
Yes, happy to answer that question. We had maybe a reasonably strong third quarter. As we think about historically, the activity in Q3 was stronger. So I would just – I would chalk that up to timing. Obviously, we’re not changing our full-year outlook for 2019. We did expect Q3 to be really strong relative to the full-year. And so, to the extent, you’re noticing a little bit of movement between Q3 and Q4, we believe that to be just just timing.
Robert Gutman:
Thanks. And what about the pace of new order activity in the second-half of the year versus the first-half of the year?
Jay Brown:
Well, the second-half of the year leads right into our 2020 outlook. So the leasing and the bookings that we’re doing in the second-half of this calendar year are those flow into leases that are turning on in 2020. To the extent, we don’t get them on air at the end of 2019. So I think a good read through for particularly second-half activity of 2019. That is – you can get a good proxy for that by looking at the outlook for 2020.So when we make comments in 2020 to say that the leasing activity in 2020 looks substantially similar to that of 2019 in terms of change in our reported revenue growth. That’s really a proxy for what’s happened for the second-half of 2019. So, say, all that to say, second-half of 2019 activity is at the highest levels we’ve seen in a decade, except for the periods and second-half of 2018 through the beginning of 2019. So it’s been incredibly strong and really hopeful as we go into 2020.
Daniel Schlanger:
And as you remember, Robert, we increased our new leasing activity expectations earlier this year on increasing levels of activity through 2019. So we believe that this higher level activity we’re seeing now will continue.
Robert Gutman:
Great, thank you. And on the incremental small cell orders, how much of that is new builds versus second tenants, the breakout proportionally?
Jay Brown:
Similar to what we’ve seen over the last several quarters, so we’re still seeing the predominant amount of the activity is coming from new locations, where we’re going to extend fiber off the plant. But we’re seeing colocations in that mix as well to the tune of about 30% to 40% of the activities is coming in colocations and about 60% to 70% would be new extension of the fiber networks that we have in place.The activity continues to be focused in the top 30 markets in the U.S., so there is some marginal activity outside of that. But certainly, this increase that we’re talking about this morning, that’s coming in the – in almost entirely at the top 30 markets.
Robert Gutman:
Great. Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question will come from Tim Horan with Oppenheimer.
Timothy Horan:
Thanks, Jay. Maybe just asking – I’m sorry, guys. Thanks, Jay. Maybe just asking the question a little differently on Sprint/T-Mobile Dish. Do you think that merger ends up changing the trajectory of revenue at all over the next five years further? Does it improve it? Does it keep things relatively the same? Does it hurt? I mean, I know there’s a million moving parts.And then secondly, are you seeing much interest from the cable companies yet, or do you think they’re engineering wireless networks at this point? And then lastly, are the municipalities and utilities, are they improving on their ability to kind of process all the orders here for small cells, or when do you think that improvement comes where we could get to a good run rate again? Thanks.
Jay Brown:
Sure. I think to your question around longer-term, the driver of our business is really data traffic growth, which I referenced a couple of times in my comments. And I think regardless of the logos, the number of logos, who owns what spectrum, I think what drives our business in the investment, in the infrastructure goes to what is the data traffic opportunity.And if our assumption is right around the coming of 5G and the amount of infrastructure that’s going to be required for that, I think our business is going to perform really well regardless of the outcome there. There may be some short-term changes that we’re talking about on a quarter-to-quarter basis depending on how – what the ultimate outcome of the industry structure is. But the long-term trajectory of revenue growth, we believe that is a very favorable environment.And it’s why we – when Dan and I are having these kind of conversations, it’s why we spend so much time trying to focus around the dividend and our dividend growth of 7% to 8%. Inside of that range of 7% to 8%, we’re taking into consideration a number of different outcomes, whether it’s if movements and activity around leasing, as well as changes in interest rate environment and other things, we’re trying to look out over a really long period of time and say, how do we think the business will perform over a long period of time. And that drives us to talk about kind of the dividend growth of 7% to 8%.And to your question, looking at the longer-term of kind of what it would look like over the next five years or so? I would say, I think, our view around dividend growth is 7% to 8% encapsulates the number of different industry structures, deployments of new technologies, different spectrum bands, and we believe that it’ll be really favorable.On the – on your second question around cable companies, again, I’m going to beg off on that, because I really don’t like to talk about specific customers. I think more generally, as we move towards 5G, there’s some mix of a lot of customers that are starting to look at the need for infrastructure and how they could own wireless networks in ways that go beyond what we’ve historically seen.And we’ve seen leasing from players outside of the four big operators in the U.S. this year, and that activity has been up compared to prior years. So we benefited from some leasing outside of the big four operators. I think as we move towards 5G, you’re likely to see that continue.Then your last question around municipalities and utilities. We’re certainly working really hard to try to get there. There have been a number of governmental entities that have been helpful on that front. Obviously, the FCC has worked really hard to try to put out some guidance and some rules that are intended to give clarity to the timeline and to the amount. Those rules have been helpful in a lot of cases.But we also run into utilities and municipalities that just failed to comply with the orders and the rules of the FCC. A number of states have undertaken activities and try to help this activity. And so we’re up to mid-20s in terms of number of states that have passed legislation that enables our ability to deploy this with committed timelines and committed cost structures. And there are a number of other states that we’re working on at the state level.In general, though, I would say, as we talked about, kind of the operating components, how long is it going to take us to deploy these, all of those changes and opportunities there really haven’t changed our trajectory of how quickly we think we can deploy these.Ultimately, though, I mean, just going all the way back to kind of where we started in the conversation in my prepared remarks, this business at its most basic level is a significant investment of capital upfront to own an asset that can be shared. And that sharing occurs over a very long period of time.And the timing while we certainly are working on it and we want to deliver for our customers a small cell node absolutely quickly as we can, ultimately, as we think about looking at the business and whether or not it makes sense for us to own the shared asset and what the returns are, we’re less focused on the exact timing of when we can get these small cell nodes on a much more focused around what’s the addressable market and what’s the opportunity there.And we have found by running the tower business over a long period of time, that the patient steady execution of adding tenants to that shared asset over a long period of time is how you can effectively drive great returns on the investments that we’ve made. And we’re really focused on how do we do that cost effectively and thoughtfully, and then position ourselves really well with our customers to be the go to provider, because we can provide them with a low-cost solution that they can count on, and that’s what we’re focused on day in and day out to run the business well.
Timothy Horan:
Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question will come from Spencer Kurn with New Street Research.
Spencer Kurn:
Hey, guys. I have a couple of questions. But on small cells, you talked about your new leasing revenue being back-end weighted? I was wondering if you could provide a little bit of context on the cadence of new leasing activity that you expect in the guide for towers and fiber?
Jay Brown:
The – those are generally flat across the 2020 outlook, Spencer. There’s no significant change from first-half to second-half for us.
Spencer Kurn:
Okay, got it. Thank you. And then on CapEx, I was just wondering if you could put a finer point on where you expect the lower CapEx to come from, whether it’s towers, small cells or fiber in 2020?
Jay Brown:
It’s in the fiber or small cells arena, Spencer. The towers is going to be relatively similar and then building the asset out for the fiber and small cell business is what we’re spending a little less money on in 2020 than we did in 2019.
Spencer Kurn:
Got it. And then just lastly, on small cells. Have you – you’ve historically talked to a win rate of around 50% of the market. And in the meantime, it feels like we’ve seen more growth from carriers building small cells themselves, or cable companies talking about adding CBRS or Wi-Fi to their own infrastructure. And so I was just wondering if you could update us on your perspective of the competitive landscape? Has anything changed? Are you seeing better win rates, or are they remaining stable? Thanks.
Jay Brown:
Yes. You’re correct. In that our historical experience has been, we’ve won – we – what we believe to be about 50% of the opportunity that’s been available in the market and the small cells that have been deployed, we believe we’ve won about 50% of that activity.We’re certainly not underwriting as we think about the long-term returns of the business. We’re not underwriting that as what we believe will be a significant growth in the amount of activity, I quoted the CTIA stat in terms of a tenfold increase in the number of small cell nodes between now and 2026.We don’t assume that we’re going to continue to win 50% of the activity. We will – we believe we’ll win a very high percentage of the activity that happens in the areas where we have existing fiber. And to the extent that there is activity outside of where we have fiber today, then it will just be an investment decision around whether or not we would like to continue to expand the business.And that goes back to kind of my comments and a couple of questions ago around, how are we thinking about running the business? We’re focused on how do we grow the dividend per share over a long period of time. And to the extent that we continue to expand the base and follow the carriers and the markets beyond what we have today, that will really be an investment decision around what do we believe the returns are, the initial returns, plus the opportunity for future growth there.And to the extent that the return structure stays similar to what it is today, I think, we’ll continue to do that. If it changes, then we’ll evaluate that capital at that point, but we’re not underwriting an assumption there. To your question around self-perform. It – we believe it is the most likely – if Crown Castle is not building the small cells, the most likely scenario is that the work is being self-performed by the carriers. It again, similar to the kind of the tower industry in the earlier days, where there were a few providers who are building a bunch of towers, but the carriers were also self-performing. There are locations that we choose not to build small cells and build fiber. And in those cases, oftentimes, the carrier is going to do it themselves.There are other cases, where we would potentially be interested in doing it. But the carriers decide that they want to self-perform. I think the scale of what’s going to be needed around small cells over the coming decade is, you’re going to have some of all of that and more. And so I think we’ll continue to see the carriers self-perform and build a significant number of small cells themselves. And I think we’ll do really well in the places where we’ve chosen to build fiber and capture lease-up opportunities against that fiber to drive our returns.
Spencer Kurn:
Great. Thank you.
Jay Brown:
You bet. Then we’ll take, given the time maybe we’ll take one more question.
Operator:
Thank you. Our last question for today’s presentation will come from Brandon Nispel with KeyBanc Capital Markets.
Brandon Nispel:
Awesome. Thanks for squeezing me in. Want to follow-up on Roberts question on bookings activity. Specifically on towers, though, is the backlog of business side but not commenced up year-over-year and maybe just provide some color from a year-over-year and quarter-over-quarter perspective in 3Q? And then I have a follow-up question.
Daniel Schlanger:
Yes. Just to clarify, Brandon. You’re asking third quarter of 2019 over third quarter of 2018?
Brandon Nispel:
Yes. [Multiple Speakers]
Daniel Schlanger:
Yes. I think from – what you can piece together, especially from how we’ve talked about the new leasing activity being higher in 2019 than 2018. And then increasing it during 2019 from our original outlook and expectation that it has been building over time, and that isn’t – that is included into the third quarter.We believe that, as Jay mentioned a few times that this activity level in towers, which is the highest we’ve seen in a decade will continue into 2020. So it is – it has been increasing and we think it will continue around this pace going forward.
Brandon Nispel:
Got it. Then on the small scale business, I know you guys called out 1% churn in small sales. Why is that happening? That is pretty new in the last couple of years. And I’m just curious why there’s any churn in that business at all? Then on the escalator for the small cell business, is 1.5% sort of the best that you guys do? And does that cover your costs inflation in that business longer term? Thanks.
Daniel Schlanger:
Sure. The churn of about 1%, it – I know this may not be a totally satisfying answer, but they’re going to be times when there are certain nodes that just aren’t performing in a way that is appropriate or that somehow we want – that our customers don’t want at one particular point and for one particular location. And a 1% churn level now, I think, you can take it to say, that is pretty de minimis and not something that I think is indicative of anything other than there are just certain times, where nodes get turned off.With regard to the escalator itself, the 1.5%, as we’ve talked about historically, there’s been somewhat of a thought process, but it’s not in the contract. But a thought process between the escalation on the node portion and the escalation on the fiber portion, where the fiber portion doesn’t get an escalator. The node portion, which is approximately more – roughly, more of the tower business does get an escalator.And as we’ve kind of worked through that, we’ve gotten to the point where the escalator is on average about 1.5% in the small cell business. We don’t think that, that will go up over time. No, I don’t think it’ll get better than that. For that dynamic I just spoke of is that fiber generally doesn’t have an escalator associated with it. And I’d say, that’s a significant portion of the build.And as far as cost escalations, there aren’t really many cost escalations within that small cell business. Once we, just like in the tower business, once we have the asset in place, it is in place. And we believe that because of that what really will drive the incremental revenue – incremental returns and ultimately the incremental gross margins associated with small cell business will be lease-up, as we add those at higher incremental returns and margins then the anchor build just added.So what we’ll see we believe is increasing returns in margins over time as we lease-up the assets and the escalator recover any cost increases that we see in the underlying business.
Brandon Nispel:
All right. Thanks for taking the questions.
Jay Brown:
You bet. Thanks, everyone, for joining us this morning. We’re obviously incredibly thrilled with the results in the third quarter. I want to give a shout out to our employees who have done a terrific job delivering for our customers during 2019 thus far, and we’re looking to finish up the year strong and we’re obviously really excited about the long-term opportunity that’s in front of us as we turn the page from largely focused on 4G. And I think as we get into 2020, there’ll start to be even greater conversations around the opportunity in 5G and what it’s going to mean for our business. I think it’s going to be great. Thanks. So thanks for joining us this morning. We’ll look forward to catching up with you soon. Bye-bye.
Operator:
Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. This concludes today’s teleconference. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Good day and welcome to the Crown Castle Second Quarter 2019 Earnings Call. Today's conference is being recorded.At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Ben Lowe, Vice President of Corporate Finance. Please go ahead sir.
Ben Lowe:
Great. Thank you, Todd and good morning everyone. Thank you for joining us today as we review our second quarter 2019 results. With me on the call this morning are Jay Brown, Crown Castle's Chief Executive Officer; and Dan Schlanger, Crown Castle's Chief Financial Officer.To aid the discussion, we have posted supplemental materials in the Investors section of our website at crowncastle.com that we will refer to throughout the call this morning. This conference call will contain forward-looking statements which are subject to certain risks, uncertainties, and assumptions and actual results may vary materially from those expected. Information about potential factors which could affect our results is available in the press release and the Risk Factors sections of the company's SEC filings.Our statements are made as of today July 18th, 2019 and we assume no obligation to update any forward-looking statements. In addition today's call includes the discussions of certain non-GAAP financial measures. Tables reconciling these non-GAAP financial measures are available in the supplemental information package in the Investors section of the company's website at crowncastle.com.So, with that, let me turn the call over to Jay.
Jay Brown:
Thanks Ben and thank you everyone for joining us on the call this morning. We delivered another quarter of great financial results that exceeded our expectations and reflect the significant demand we are seeing from our shared infrastructure assets.I believe our strategy and unmatched portfolio of more than 40,000 towers and approximately 75,000 route miles of fiber concentrated in the top U.S. markets has positioned Crown Castle to generate growth in cash flows and dividends per share both in the near term and for years to come.Due in large part to the increasing demand we are seeing across our tower assets, we are increasing our full year 2019 outlook and now expect to grow AFFO per share by approximately 8%, which is at the high end of our longer term target of 7% to 8% annual growth.Dan will discuss the results for the quarter and the increased outlook in more detail, so I'll focus my comments this morning on two key points. First, tower -- current tower leasing activity is our highest in more than a decade which we expect will carry into next year; and second, our small cell business is delivering compelling returns at scale.On the first point, we are seeing a more significant acceleration in tower leasing this year than we previously expected with broad demand from each of our largest customers as they deploy additional cell sites and spectrum in response to the rapid growth in mobile data traffic.We now expect new leasing activity on towers to be approximately 30% higher when compared to the level of leasing last year with activity in the back half of the year exceeding the growth generated year-to-date.And I believe the current level of activity will continue as our customers respond to data traffic growth on their 4G networks, while also embarking on the deployment of 5G. According to a recent report from Ericsson, data traffic per smartphone in North America is expected to increase from seven gigabytes per month in 2018 to nearly 40 gigabytes per month by 2024, representing the highest rate of data consumption in the world and a compound annual growth rate of more than 30%.Additionally, as 5G becomes a reality, new use cases will develop that require wireless networks to connect not only people and their phones, but also billions of things. The expansion of the uses of wireless networks will require ubiquitous, low latency, high speed connectivity, which we believe will extend demand for our towers for many years to come.In addition to towers remaining a crucial element of the future, networks will need to be significantly more dense than current infrastructure can handle, which brings me to my second key point. As you see on the map on slide 4, we invested early and at scale to build and acquire fiber in the most densely populated markets where small cells are being deployed and demand is expected to be the greatest. Said another way, all the gray space you see on the map where we don't have fiber is intentional.Turning to slide 5. This strategy is delivering compelling results. The small cell project summarized on this slide are in the process of being completed. While the projects included in this data set are not finished, some of the nodes within those projects are on air while other nodes are in various stages of construction.In total, this analysis represents approximately 75% of the 65,000 nodes we have on air or under construction and represent the most recent data points for measuring returns. When these projects are complete, we expect to have invested just over $2 billion of capital, both to build new systems for anchor tenants and to co-locate new small cells on existing fiber networks. These projects are expected to generate a recurring yield of approximately 8%, the blend of first tenant economics in the 6% to 7% range and co-location economics of approximately 20%, which is consistent with our disciplined underwriting requirements.As the data shows, similar to the development of the tower business, we are seeing significant demand from multiple customers for the same asset, which results in co-location economics. The small cell co-location on existing fiber accounts for nearly 30% of the incremental cash flows we expect to generate from these projects, but only 10% of the incremental capital investment.This operating and capital leverage is very much like what the tower business has exhibited over time, and we believe our strategy of investing early in fiber for small cells will pay off in much the same way that our early investment in towers continues to. And whether we have built or acquired the fiber, we are seeing co-location economics as we add small cell customers to the existing fiber.To that end, approximately 75% of the co-location activity is coming from the markets where we acquired the fiber in recent years. While our levels of activity, initial yields, and lease-up economics are all very encouraging, the significant increase in the volume of small cells being constructed is straining the response times from municipalities and utilities who are not complying with the FCC orders, resulting in longer construction timelines than we previously experienced.As a result, we are seeing construction timelines averaging 18 to 36 months, which is longer than our prior average of 18 to 24 months. Due to the elongated construction timelines, we now expect to deploy approximately 10,000 small cells in 2019, which is at the low end of our prior expected range of 10,000 to 15,000 in this year but it's approximately 30% more than what we delivered all of 2018.In the near term we expect the delay to reduce our 2019 new leasing activity from small cells by approximately $5 million. Longer term, we do not expect the extended timelines to impact our overall growth or our returns.Taking a step back and reflecting on where we are with our fiber and small cell strategy, it is remarkable to me how much progress we have made in a relatively short time frame. What began about 10 years ago with measured investments intended to explore the small cell opportunity has accelerated over the past five years at the scale of the opportunity and the business model have come into focus. As a result, we sit here today as the clear leader in the small cell industry with approximately 75,000 route miles of high-capacity fiber concentrated in top markets, more than 65,000 small cells on air or under construction, more than $13 billion of invested capital generating a recurring yield of approximately 8%, and a robust pipeline of small cell projects that will add to the returns on our current fiber asset base, while increasing the longer-term opportunity as we expand with new anchor builds.As we look ahead, we see tremendous opportunity to increase the returns on our fiber investments over time by adding small cell tenants to existing fiber networks as we we're doing today. Along these lines, our experience is that the same fiber necessary to support small cell customers can serve large enterprises and government agencies who require high-bandwidth connectivity.As such, we see a path to further improve our small cell returns by sharing the fiber across these customers. This is similar to our approach with towers, where the vast majority of the economics are driven by a wireless carrier. But we also work hard to increase the returns on our towers by sharing the asset with others.As shown in our 2019 outlook, we now anticipate fiber solutions revenues to grow approximately 3%, or approximately $15 million lower than our previous expectation. As you would expect, we prioritized activities related to our long-term strategy of adding small cells to our fiber, including integrating recent acquisitions into a single operating structure and platform, and consequently we lost some sales momentum in this business.While we want to generate as much revenues from these sources as possible, we continue to believe that the growth from small cells will be the primary driver of future return on our fiber investment.So to wrap-up and moving back to the collective outcome, 2019 is shaping up to be another great year for Crown Castle with AFFO per share growth now expected to be at the high-end of our longer term 7% to 8% target. We see the growth in our business reflecting the positive underlying fundamentals driving demand for our infrastructure, including the continued growth in mobile data on existing 4G networks, and the early stages of our customers developing 5G networks. With our unmatched asset base and expertise, I believe Crown Castle is in a great position to capture these substantial long-term return opportunities and consistently return capital to shareholders through a high-quality dividend that we expect to grow at 7% to 8% annually.And with that, I'll turn the call over to Dan.
Dan Schlanger:
Thanks, Jay and good morning everyone. As Jay discussed, we delivered another quarter of very good growth, reflecting the strong demand for our unmatched portfolio of towers, small cells to fiber assets.Turning to slide 6, you can see, we had a great quarter with site rental revenues increasing 6%, adjusted EBITDA increasing 12%, and AFFO increasing 14% when compared to the same period a year ago.On page 7, you can see that at the midpoint, we are increasing our full year outlook for site rental revenues by approximately $3 million for adjusted EBITDA by approximately $41 million and for AFFO by approximately $43 million when compared to our prior outlook.Our AFFO guidance for 2019 implies approximately $5.94 per share, representing 8% growth compared to 2018 and an increase from our prior outlook of 7% growth. The increase to full year 2019 outlook for site rental revenues, adjusted EBITDA and AFFO primarily reflects the higher expected contribution from straight-lined revenues and an increase in the expected contribution from services, both of which relate to higher expected tower activity in 2019 as compared to the prior full year 2019 outlook. The increase in full year AFFO also reflects reduction and expected full year financing costs.Turning to page 8. We now expect between $245 million and $275 million of organic contribution to site rental revenues, reflecting an increase in the expected contribution from towers, offset by lower expected contribution from both small cells and fiber solutions.New leasing activity is expected to contribute between $345 million and $375 million to organic contribution to site rental revenues, which is approximately $5 million lower than our prior outlook. At the midpoint, new leasing activity consists of $140 million from towers compared to $125 million in our prior outlook, $70 million from small cells compared to the prior $75 million and $150 million from fiber solutions compared to the prior $165 million.Turning to page 9. You'll find our 2019 outlook for components of AFFO growth. The increase in full year outlook for AFFO growth reflects the increase in the expected contribution from services tied to higher tower activity and a reduction in expected full year financing cost resulting from lower interest rates and recent financing activities. These improvements were offset by the reduction in organic contribution to site rental revenues and additional expenses primarily related to incremental incentive compensation tied to our improved outlook.From a balance sheet perspective, in the second quarter we continue to improve our financial flexibility and liquidity by increasing new commitments under our revolver to $5 billion and extending the maturity date on our credit facility to a new five-year term.As we have previously discussed, we intend to finance the business with approximately fiver turns of leverage longer term, consistent with both our commitment to maintaining our investment-grade credit profile in the level at which we finished the second quarter.So in closing, our second quarter results exceeded our expectations, leading us to increase our full year guidance for 2019 across site rental revenues, adjusted EBITDA and AFFO. We continue to believe our ability to offer towers, small cells and fiber, which are all integral components of communications networks, provides us the best opportunity to generate significant growth while delivering high returns for our shareholders.With that, Todd, I'd like to open the call to questions.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] We'll take our first question from David Barden of Bank of America.
David Barden:
Hi, guys. Thanks so much for taking the question. I guess a couple. First, the services business is really strong this quarter. I was wondering if you could call out anything that you thought was kind of maybe a recurring driver or a one-off driver of that business activity in the quarter, and kind of maybe some thoughts on how it kind of plays out for the year?And then the second piece is just on the other side of it that you kind of called out the fiber services piece. I think there was a cogent explanation for small cells maybe kind of being tougher because of the utilities and the municipalities being strained to kind of come to terms with the volumes. But the fiber business seems to just kind of keep getting a little weaker. This time, it was bookings and I was wondering if you can kind of give us some color on what the game plan is for that business. Is it secular forces? Is it sales problems? Is it -- I don't know SD WAN? If you can kind of elaborate a little bit on what's going on with that business, it would be great. Thank you.
Jay Brown:
Sure Dave. On your first question around the services business being strong, I think that's the best reflection of what we're seeing in terms of the tower leasing activity that we talked about.If you look at the activity, we're talking about for full year 2019; we're up about 30% year-over-year. That's a direct reflection of that is what happens inside of the services business. If you look at it year-over-year and the first half of the year, I think it's up almost 50% year-over-year. So, the tower activity is indicated by the results on the services side.And as we’ve said historically, we think that, that activity will match leasing activity. And so if we stay at an elevated level of leasing activities than the services business we would expect would continue to do so and our outlook for the year sort of reflects that.On your second question around fiber solutions, I made reference to this in my comments, but as we went through the acquisition activities, we initially focused on making sure we got the assets integrated and purpose-ready for our long-term strategy of small cells. I think given that we've gotten that behind us, it's certainly appropriate for a little more attention to be paid on the sales side around fiber solutions.But I really don't believe that long-term this is the best indication of value in that business. The way that we underwrote the investment in fiber was based on our view around small cells and the need for this kind of fiber to be available for small cells. Fiber solutions revenues support some level of return there, but the long-term returns and the driver of long-term returns are going to come from the wireless business and be driven by small cells.And as I look at the environment for that today, it's healthier and more robust and better visibility than what we had frankly when we were making these fiber investments over the last several years. So, from an underlying thesis around fiber, I think we feel like we're in a better place today than we were several years ago when we made the investments and certainly have a lot more data points to support that view as we're talking about in the 75% of the 65,000 nodes that we have on air or under construction.
David Barden:
Great. Thanks guys.
Operator:
Thank you. We'll take our next question from Simon Flannery of Morgan Stanley.
Simon Flannery:
Thanks very much. Good morning. On the tower leasing, could you give us a little bit more color around where you're seeing the strength? I think you said it was very fairly broad-based, and I think from beyond the big four carriers, how's the mix between colo and amendment activity? And then the sort of are you seeing this in suburbia or other areas which are very broad-based? Any color around what the big theme is driving the new activity is? Thanks.
Jay Brown:
Sure. Simon, good morning. On the drivers there, we're seeing that across the board from the wireless operators. And their activity is a mix of densifying the network, improving their network, and deploying additional spectrum. Given the nature of our assets, which are more focused in the metro markets than rural, we're seeing that activity happen in the metro market. That may be just by virtue of the nature of our assets and our bias towards being in the metro market in terms of the location of the current asset base.We've seen the increase in activity come from both first-time installs as well as amendments. Both of those boats are rising with the tide, so the mix has stayed relatively similar to what we've seen over the last couple of years. We are at about 40% first-time installs and about 60% of the activity being driven by amendment. And that's pretty similar to what it's been over the last several years.To your question around outside of the wireless carriers, yes we are seeing some increase there, but the majority of the driver here has continued to be the wireless operators, and we're benefiting from a little bit of activity outside of those wireless operators, makes up about 15% of our overall activity, 85% coming from the wireless carriers.
Simon Flannery:
Great. So you're – and just to be clear you think your second half leasing activity will be ahead of the first half? So you'll exit the year accelerating from the full year number?
Jay Brown:
That's correct.
Simon Flannery:
Yeah, great. Thank you.
Jay Brown:
You bet.
Operator:
Thank you. We’ll take our next question from Brett Feldman of Goldman Sachs.
Brett Feldman:
Thanks for taking the question. The statistics you've been giving us, 65,000 small cells that are on-air or in the backlog, it's been a pretty stable number now for the last two quarters, which implies there has not been a lot of new booking activity through the first half of the year off of what had been fairly active in 2018. So I was hoping maybe you can just help us understand what the demand environment is like, what the small cell opportunity funnel looks like as you go into the second half, and should we expect that there will be a pick up in bookings as we move through the remainder of the year? Thank you.
Jay Brown:
Yeah, Brett good morning. As you've seen in the past, the activity of new bookings is very lumpy. They come in very large scale projects with a number of nodes that take as I was talking about in my earlier comments long period of time to construct.So as I look across the horizon there are a ton of opportunities that we see for continuing to add bookings. But the amount of work that goes into even preparing and designing to get to the place where we have bookings is a pretty significant period of time. And that activity is as robust as we've ever seen it. We're seeing activity from all of the carriers as they look at deploying small cells and I think we will at some point see that overall number continue to increase.
Brett Feldman:
Is there any change in the environment in terms of your customers particularly your largest ones deciding to do more of this in-house? Or is it really just the timeline factored that you outlined?
Jay Brown:
It's just the timeline factor that we've outlined. We haven't seen any movement towards greater self-perform than what we've seen historically. We continue to believe that broadly at the market we're capturing about 50% of the total activity and of the total small cell activity and the balance of it would be done mostly in self perform and then some components of third-party providers.
Brett Feldman:
Great. Thank you.
Jay Brown:
You bet…
Operator:
Thank you. We'll take our next question from Richard Prentiss of Raymond James.
Richard Prentiss:
Thanks. Good morning, guys.
Jay Brown:
Good morning.
Richard Prentiss:
Hey. Want to follow-up on a couple of Brett's question as well. Can you update us as far as roughly how many of the nodes you have on-air versus how many are in the backlog?
Jay Brown:
We're a little under 40,000 nodes on-air and then the balance would be in backlog, Ric.
Richard Prentiss:
Makes sense. And then with the slip out from the 18 to 24 to be 18 to 36, how should we think about the bulk of that backlog pacing it into beyond 2019 and to 2020 and 2021?
Jay Brown:
Yeah. I think based on what we're seeing at the moment the best guidance, I could give you is to expect that we'll put about 10,000 nodes on air annually or 2,500 roughly per quarter, which would suggest that the backlog that we have now carries us through 2020 and 2021. And so it gives us really good visibility around revenue growth in small cells over those couple of year period of time. And the works that we're doing around attracting new bookings would be related to revenue growth in 2022 and beyond.
Richard Prentiss:
Makes sense. And then also I notice this quarter, I think there was a sequential drop quarter-to-quarter on the fiber small cell operating cost. Is there anything seasonally there? Or is it something to do with the weaker sales bookings on the fiber side? So just trying to think as we look at the gross margin side on fiber small cells as a segment.
Jay Brown:
No. I think there's not a lot to be gained from trying to compare those two directly Ric. As you pointed out, yeah, there's going to be some lower cost with lower bookings, but that's not going to be a huge driver of the business. I think what I would say is, there's always going to be timing for when cost come-in and when revenue comes in that will move margins around a little bit. But I think overall, what we think is that the margins that we're providing in that market in that business right now are ones that we think will continue overtime. With small fluctuations here and there, but I don't think you can take anything from the – from the sequential movement to give a sense for what could be extrapolated into a long period.
Richard Prentiss:
And final one for me. I think Jay you mentioned, the straight-line adjustment – it might have been Dan mentioning the straight-line adjustment did modify in the quarter. Was that really just the new leasing activity? So I'm just trying to think as we look out into 2019 and 2020 what we should be thinking about straight-line we're probably looking at straight-line flipping colors at some point.
Dan Schlanger:
Yeah. It's actually combination of the new leasing activity and extensions on current leases that we have. So it's a combination of things we've talked about in the past as well Ric, just continuing. And because the activity continues to accelerate, we're continuing to see an acceleration of that straight-line revenue.
Richard Prentiss:
Okay. Thanks guys.
Operator:
Thank you. We'll take our next question from Colby Synesael of Cowen and Company.
Unidentified Analyst:
Great. This is Jon on for Colby. Thanks for taking the questions. Within the small-cell business you noted longer construction time frames, especially in the top markets. Are you starting to see demand beyond those very top markets? And then within the fiber solutions business, are you seeing any notable change in the demand environment there or from competition? Thank you.
Jay Brown:
Yeah, Jon. On your first question, what I would say is the vast majority of the activity and conversations are continuing to happen in the top 30 markets in the U.S. It's where we've invested thus far, the vast majority of the capital, frankly you could probably even narrow it down to the top 10 markets, the vast majority of the capital would be investments in the top 10 markets and it continues to be the biggest focus around the need to densify the networks and bring small cells on-air. So the focus continues to be there. We expand out beyond the top 10 top 30 markets. There is some limited amounts of activity in those markets, but not meaningful in terms of margin opportunities or investment of CapEx.I think, longer term, as I listen to what the carriers are talking about their networks, depending on which carrier is talking about their networks, they talk about top 100 and in some cases all the way out to the top 250 markets in the U.S. So I think you're going to see the need for small cells well beyond the top 30 markets in the U.S.And ultimately whether we decide to play in that market will be determined based on the returns and what we believe the co-location opportunities are around fiber and markets beyond the top 30. At this point and as we've talked about the pipeline, we've got several years worth of visibility where we know the activity is going to be coming in the top 30 markets.So I think at this point, that's the majority of the focus. But to the extent that there was future opportunity beyond those top 30 markets and we thought the returns were going to be similar to what we've seen thus far, it will certainly be something we would be willing to look at and study and see if it makes sense for incremental investment.On your second question, I really don't think the demand for the service has changed at all. I think it's much more an issue of our own focus and attention towards making sure we have the asset right for its long term intended use than what we think is the primary value driver.
Unidentified Analyst:
Okay. Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. We'll take our next question from Nick Del Deo of MoffettNathanson.
Nick Del Deo:
Hi. Thanks for taking my question. First, Jay, again, on fiber solutions, would you argue that the prior 5% long-term target for growth you've laid out is still appropriate if we look beyond this year? I mean, you kind of said that you don't think current performance is indicative of its potential and demand hasn't changed. But you also kind of downplayed the growth outlook for non-wireless solutions, so it just wasn't clear to me how that all shook out.
Jay Brown:
Sure, Nick. I think what I would tell you is, it may come back to a level of 5% at some point in the future, but we're not willing to predict that as the outcome. Our focus in the business around small cells is the long-term driver of the business and we think that's the most appropriate place for us to spend our time talking about the long-term prospects of the business.As much revenue as we can get from fiber solutions that obviously makes sense to do so, because it adds the returns around the fiber. But we're trying to be really clear about what we think the long-term driver of the returns are and why we made the investments that we did.As I look at where the business is performing relative to our underwriting assumptions, our underwriting assumptions we're tracking right on where our underwriting assumptions around these assets were. So I think publicly we had indicated that we thought we were going to be a little bit higher than even what our internal underwriting assumptions were.But in terms of the focus and what we think the opportunity is, we're -- I would suggest that investors look at the business as we guided this morning to growth of about 3% in the business and if we're able to improve it from there, we'll certainly let you know once we've done it. And don't think it should impact how you think about the long-term returns around fiber.
Nick Del Deo:
Okay. Got it. And then, yeah, on the small cell front are there reasons to think that municipalities and power companies are going to spend the money to staff up so they can work through small cells request at a pace consistent with demand? And to the extent that your overhead cost might not be aligned with the lower installation rates you're forecasting are there any opportunities to trim those costs?
Jay Brown:
Well, one of the great benefits of the FCC order is that it requires the municipalities and the utilities to timely respond and deal with these -- with both the permits and the process of applications for installing in the right-of-way. So -- and the mechanism around the fees that we paid for that reimbursed the municipalities and the utilities for the reasonable cost associated with managing that activity regardless of the level of volume.And so I think folks should read my comments as -- and they're intended to say the municipalities that are complying with the FCC order have done a great job of doing that and a number of markets that has helped the process, but there are still some municipalities and utilities out there that have been resistant to complying with the FCC order and I think we're in the process of both working through that with the local municipalities as well as working closely with the regulators to make sure that it's handled appropriately.I wouldn't look beyond that towards kind of G&A or staffing or anything else as causes or reasons for it. I think the long-term outcome we're hopeful will be that this is somewhat temporary and that it ultimately you'll see municipalities and utilities fall in line with what the FCC order is and that will come back to a more normalized timeline around these activities. And if that happens we'll come back and update you on that. But based on what we're seeing currently I think the 24 -- the 18 months to 36 months is probably the right timeline.
Dan Schlanger:
And Nick I think one of your questions was around our own overhead and whether the reduction going down to 10,000 node per year range would change that. I would just call your attention what we had before was 10,000 to 15,000 range, so we're on the low end of the range, but still within the range of what we thought was appropriate for the cost structure we have.Of course to the extent that we can reduce our cost structure because there is lower activity or there are places we can get more efficient we will be looking to do so as aggressively as we possibly can. But I wouldn't expect that in the base case because this is within the range of outcomes that we were expecting for the year.
Nick Del Deo:
All right. Understood. Thanks guys.
Operator:
Thank you. We'll take our next question for Michael Rollins of Citi.
Michael Rollins:
Hi, good morning. First, can you just give a little bit more context on the change in straight line within the 2019 guidance? And second can you give us an update on your outlook for discretionary capital spending with the changing outlook on small cell deployment and fiber revenue growth? Thank you.
Dan Schlanger:
Sure. So, Mike as I mentioned before the change in straight line really is a combination of new leasing activity which causes new straight line and then the extension of current leases which also causes an extension of the term and therefore an increase in the straight-line revenue.Both of those are related to increase tower activity. And as we've seen in the first couple or in the first quarter and the last quarter of 2018, those extensions and those amendment I note that new leasing activity has caused us to continue to increase the straight-line revenue because the activity levels are increasing more than what we had anticipated. And so we are excited about that because I think it's just like Jay said about services as an indication of what's going on with the tower leasing overall.On the discretionary CapEx, we think it will remain consistent with what we said before about $2 billion of CapEx in 2019 is our expectation and continues to be, on a net basis around $1.5billion.And the reason for that is most of the capital that we spend comes well before we are putting in the node portion of the small cell builds, and so we're continuing to have to do that and continuing to do that work now even though some of the time frame has been elongated a lot of that has been on the back end. So we anticipate making progress on the projects at the pace that we were anticipating and expecting from a capital perspective for 2019 as we were on our prior outlook.
Michael Rollins:
Thanks very much.
Jay Brown:
Sure.
Operator:
We'll take our next question from Batya Levi of UBS.
Batya Levi:
Great. Thank you. On the fiber solution side, can you provide a rough split of the $150 million incremental revenues you expect this year in terms of wireless driven versus enterprise driven?And second question on the guidance. Can you remind us what it includes for Sprint activity this year?
Dan Schlanger:
Yeah. On the first point of $150 million that part is on the fiber business itself and so all of that $150 million is related to our fiber solutions business not wireless customers.
Batya Levi:
Right. In terms of the fiber backhaul for wireless nodes as opposed to pure enterprise business, if you split it that way.
Dan Schlanger:
Yeah. We don't split it that way and largely because a lot of that business is a similar business, although I would say that within that fiber business the majority of it is enterprise, a vast majority for it is enterprise and not in the wireless backhaul. What we've said in the past is about -- to give you a little bit more color is about 50% of that business is generally with enterprise customers and 50% is with the carriers as we would call it or larger customers that have more backbone type of needs than what I think that you're trying to get to is enterprise versus that backbone is about 50/50.
Batya Levi:
Right. Okay. Thank you.
Jay Brown:
Batya on your second question around Sprint, we don’t comment on specific customer, so their activities -- so we'll let them speak with themselves in terms of what they're expecting to do with their network.
Batya Levi:
Okay. Thank you.
Jay Brown:
You bet.
Operator:
Thank You. We’ll take our next question from Philip Cusick of JPMorgan.
Philip Cusick:
Hi. Beating this fiber bookings a little more recognizing the fiber still hitting your underwriting goals, are there are regions or verticals that aren't really holding up in the bookings side? Or I wonder if you become more wary of the contract or revenue mix in fiber.
Jay Brown:
Well, I think so what I would say is there's opportunity there. We haven't really seen the market change, which I was trying to make point to just a minute ago. What we went into this process of making these fiber acquisitions over the last several years, the way we underwrote the investment and thought about the opportunity was driven from our macro view of the need for small cells and what that would portend over time.Obviously given the way fiber had historically been utilized, it was built originally solely for the use of in many cases the enterprise and fiber solutions revenue that you're asking about. So that's a relatively new business to us. There wasn't the driver, for which we underwrote. So if I were to go back and look at kind of our underwriting assumptions, and try to match those to your questions around, which components are doing better or worse than what we initially expected, that's probably a level of granularity and focus that frankly we just – we didn't aim towards that one when we were going to the process. We were focused much more on a range of outcomes around what we thought was going to happen in the wireless business.And as I referenced in my comments earlier, the environment for that today is more robust and healthier than the environment in which we underwrote the fiber, the fiber investments initially – with regards to small cells. So I'm not trying to sidestep your question other than to honestly tell you that that's really frankly not where we spend a lot of time trying to analyze, and so trying to make the comparison. I don't know that there's much of a comparison to be made there.
Philip Cusick:
I think and the reason that we are – I was just going to say that – I think the reason we're spending so much time on it is not because again the fiber into small cell opportunity is not a good one, but I think a lot of us have been maybe concerned that as you bought a lot of fiber revenue that was existing that you may over time not – not that size that as much and that the growth there may end up dragging you more than sort of the mid-single-digit that had originally been. So this is some of us are concerned that this is the first step of sort of deemphasizing that revenue growth that may drag the top line for a while.
Jay Brown:
Well, I think it's fair to ask the question and to wonder about what the long-term prospect is going to be. And as I said in the same way that we would think about on towers, obviously we want to drive revenues outside of just a big four wireless operators, if all of the activity which makes up about 15% from non-wireless carriers on towers was to dry up that would impact our growth rate on towers and the same thing is true around fiber solutions.So I don't need to – I don't mean to dismiss the question is irrelevant. It's not just the primary focus of the investments that we made, and therefore it has a lesser focus in terms of the way we think about operating the asset. While at the same time believing that every dollar that we get there is beneficial to ultimately the returns around fiber and therefore, it does warrant the appropriate level of attention and focus to make sure, we're maximizing the opportunity there.
Philip Cusick:
Understood. If I can, one more quick one. Given the restrictions are coming from the sort of the approval side is 10,000 small cells a year a good guide going forward? Or do you see any shift that municipalities be able to prove these more quickly in the future?
Jay Brown:
I think it's a good guide in terms of how you think about our model over the next couple of years with the bookings that we have and backlog currently. So I would guide you towards the 10,000 number in the short term. Longer term, the reason why the FCC order was put in place, was to facilitate the deployment of 5G in the United States. And our belief in terms of the macro opportunities around small cells is far greater than what's happening currently. And I think you're going to see the overall pie associated market sizing of the need for small cells to grow pretty significantly over the coming years as networks transition from 4G to 5G.And so municipalities and utilities are going to have to figure out a way to use the benefit of the FCC order, which provides for the cost associated with scaling this up. They're going to have to get to the place where they facilitate that in order for the U.S. market to stay competitive and for the deployment of 5G. And I suspect they will. Obviously, the FCC has been responsive and has been really thoughtful in terms of the way they've drafted the order. And in the places I should at least tip my hat to the places that have complied with the FCC order, it has really helped. It's helped in terms of the deployment of small cells and you could see in our own activity deploying 10,000 small cells thereabouts in 2019, that's about 30% higher than what we were able to do last year. Some of that is a direct result of some of these municipalities and utilities that are complying with the FCC order, which we find to be really encouraging. So I suspect over time we'll see broader embrace of that and compliance with it and I think that would be helpful.
Philip Cusick:
Thanks, Jay.
Operator:
Thank you. We'll take our next question from Tim Horan of Oppenheimer.
Tim Horan:
Thanks, guys. Jay, is there any thinking or talks with the municipalities that have more shared fiber infrastructure? Because, I mean, digging up these roads kills the structural integrity and getting power is very difficult and putting cell sites on the street lamps and everything else out there. Are you having any of those kind of conversations? Because one of the reasons Verizon is also building out really aggressively, just thinking about these roads time after time again just doesn't make any sense.
Jay Brown:
Sure. That's certainly one of the areas that we look for is, is there existing conduit that can be used to pull fiber through or other opportunities or ways to do it with minimal -- as minimal an impact as possible inside of these municipalities. And ultimately, the municipalities and the utilities, we are working hard to be good partners with them and figure out ways to reduce the amount of impact in the community.As you look at small cells across the country and go market-by-market, the types of poles that we deploy them on, the type of structure that we deploy, where we put the cabinets, the sizing of the cabinets, the sizing of the antennas and other things, is often tailored to the esthetic desires of the local municipality. And so, a component of it is esthetic that we're working with them on.Another component or some of the things that you're referring to is are there ways for us to deploy this kind of infrastructure and minimize the amount of impact in the community. We're incented to do that, because it lowers our cost when that's available. So to the extent that there are ways to do that, we're certainly looking for ways to be smarter and faster about how we're both spending the time and investing the capital.
Dan Schlanger:
And the other thing, Tim, that I would point out is, the core to our business is shared infrastructure. And we believe we are in the best position to put infrastructure in one and share it across as many customers as we can. As Jay was pointing out, with the focus on small cells, we can reach multiple of the wireless customers, but also with a focus on providing fiber solutions, we can add customers that same fiber infrastructure.And we think we're in the best position of any company to do that. And if the municipalities really are focused on trying to limit the times that a street is dug up, they're allowing a third-party provider who can share that asset as many times as possible to be the provider of that asset, is likely the best outcome for everybody involved.
Tim Horan:
No, you're preaching to the quire on that. I guess the question is that the cities really recognize that and have any cities implemented a policy like that other than like New York City with Empire City Subway?
Jay Brown:
I don't know that I would put it in adopted a policy, but do we work with municipalities to do that, absolutely. And there are occasions where we found ways to do that.
Tim Horan:
Well, I guess, lastly in this regard. I mean, Verizon says they're building out aggressively, they want owner’s economics, its key to their 5G strategy. Do you try to coordinate with them and not build in the areas that they're going to vice versa? Yeah. And any thoughts on that would be great.
Jay Brown:
Well, as I mentioned earlier in my comments about half of the overall activity that's happening in the market we think we're accomplishing and the other half is largely being accomplished through self-perform by the wireless operators.Similar to the tower business, we don't see people overbilled assets so once an asset is there, those fastest and lowest-cost means by which to deploy infrastructure like small cells is to use the existing assets and that's the way we're seeing the business develop I think we would continue to that way.I certainly don't expect that we're not going to build all of the miles of fiber that are going to be required in the U.S. for the deployment of 5G and small cells. There's going to be a number of players in this space including the wireless carriers who are going to build significant amounts of fiber and probably share that among themselves at some point.
Tim Horan:
I guess what I was asking that 50% is that hopefully occurring in locations where you're not building is like where you building you get 100% of the small cells?
Jay Brown:
Right. I mean what I would point to is again back to kind of the tower example, as infrastructure is in the market and there is opportunity there, existing infrastructure is preferred over trying to build the new infrastructure on top of the existing infrastructure.This is very early days of what's going to need to be billed for small cells across the country. And so I think you can see the flow of capital to areas that are not currently covered and therefore the investment to build new fiber build areas that don't have any existing fiber, whether that's fiber that we built or somebody else built.
Tim Horan:
Thank you.
Jay Brown:
You bet.
Operator:
Thank you. We'll take our last question from Spencer Kurn of New Street Research.
Spencer Kurn:
Hey guys. Thanks for taking the question. So, maybe just to ask a question on the tower side. Can you just provide a little bit more color around your updated guide for new leasing activity on towers? You're targeting $140 million at the midpoint today. Could you shed some color on how that paces throughout the year? Just trying to understand if guidance implies similar level of growth as the second quarter or if you're expecting a further acceleration in the back half of the year.
Jay Brown:
Yes Spencer on the revenue guide, we are expecting more activity in the second half than what we saw in the first half, so there's an acceleration in the back half of the year. I think that's somewhat similar to what historically we've seen where in our business the back half of the year tends to be more loaded than the front half. So, we are expecting an acceleration relative to the first half of the year and the second half.
Spencer Kurn:
Thanks. And then just one follow-up on the comment you made in your prepared remarks. You talked about 4G activity and 5G activity driving a strong tower growth -- strong growth on towers over the next couple of years. Could you just elaborate on how you see 5G playing out on towers versus small cells? I love to get your thoughts on that. Thank you.
Jay Brown:
Sure. I think what we will see is a combination of two things running parallel. First is the build out upgrading our network they will attend as they have done in past migrations of technologies to go to the places where they already have existing technology to upgrade equipment to the new technology. So, I would suspect we'll see significant amendment activity at sites where they go out and deploy additional attendance in line and amend existing equipment to make it 5G ready.I think we'll also see in places where the carriers have additional spectrum that they have acquired where they will put what would feel like to us as a new installations in order to deploy that equipment.In addition to that, I think you're going to see some places running parallel with that in the initial stages is in-fill because of capacity constraints, which will flow towards investments in small cells. So the areas that we've already put fiber in the ground have fiber in dense urban areas where there's a high amount of traffic, I think is the 5G network starts to begin to be loaded I think you're going to see the carriers invest not only in upgrading their existing equipment, but also offloading some of that traffic on the small cells and those dense urban environment.Just like we saw in 4G, where as macro sites reached capacity they offloaded some of that traffic on to small cells in order to improve the cost efficiency and effectiveness of the macro side. I think you're going to see a similar play out on the 5G side. So it will be a combination of investment around both the macro side as well as small cells.
Spencer Kurn:
Great. Thanks so much.
Jay Brown:
You bet.
Operator:
Thank you. At this time…
Jay Brown:
We will take one more question.
Operator:
We have one more question from Jon Atkin of RBC.
Jon Atkin:
Thanks very much. So I don't know if I missed this earlier or not, but I just want to kind of make sure I get the kind of the broad contours. It sounds like the small cells growth that you're expecting going forward might be a little bit less capital intensive. I don't know if that’s a fair read or not?And then secondly on the M&A side in terms of tuck-in fiber acquisitions, can you maybe describe the landscape and what looks interesting or not interesting to you? Thanks.
Jay Brown:
Sure. Good morning, Jon. Less capital intensive is -- that's certainly true with regards to the co-location activity. As we go over the long-term, we would expect that once there's a certain base of fiber that's been built – anchor built fiber as we get to the point where the flips from being anchor build new sites in essence being billed, we'll move towards a greater percentage of co-location and then, therefore, the capital intensity comes down as associated with that activity.I think based on our macro view though Jon that may be several years away from the environment that we're in today. As I made my comments earlier around how the carriers are thinking about the deployment of small cells, I think there's a lot of work still to be done even in the top 10, top 30 markets in the U.S. and then we'll just have to see how it develops beyond there.But as we get towards the point where co-location becomes the vast majority of the business similar for drawn analogies to the tower business, you go back and look at the 1999 to the 2003 time frame there was a significant amount of capital that had to be poured into build and acquire towers, and now we’re at the place in the tower business where we're virtually all the capital is related to co-location that's very low capital intensity required to do that.So I think the same thing will happen in small cells. I think we may – it may still be several years away when we get to that point where it's a vast majority of the activity is just solely co-location's.On your second point around M&A. I've made this point now for probably 1.5 years or so, but we just don't see any opportunities for large scale acquisitions of the kind of fiber that we believe fits our strategic goal. We need dense, high capacity urban fiber in order for it to really fit the small cells opportunities that we believe lie ahead. And from what we've seen in the market, there maybe from time-to-time some tuck-in acquisitions in certain markets to cover a portion of that market. But we really just don't see a lot of opportunity to make acquisitions. So I would suspect that, to the extent that you see us allocating dollar towards investing in fiber. We're more likely to do so on a build basis than we are to do it from the acquisitions.
Jon Atkin:
Thanks very much.
Jay Brown:
You bet. Thanks everyone for joining us this morning. We appreciate it. Look forward to catching up with you next quarter.Operator
Operator:
Good day, and welcome to the Crown Castle Q1 2019 Earnings Call. Today’s conference is being recorded. At this time, I’d like to turn the conference over to Mr. Ben Lowe. Please go ahead, sir.
Ben Lowe:
Thank you, Cody, and good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us today as we review our first quarter 2019 results. With me on the call this morning are Jay Brown, Crown Castle’s Chief Executive Officer; and Dan Schlanger, Crown Castle’s Chief Financial Officer. To aid the discussion, we have posted supplemental materials in the Investors section of our website at crowncastle.com, which we’ll refer to throughout the call this morning. This conference call will contain forward-looking statements, which are subject to certain risks, uncertainties and assumptions, and actual results may vary materially from those expected. Information about potential factors which could affect our results is available in the press release and the Risk Factors sections of the company’s SEC filings. Our statements are made as of today, April 18, 2019, and we assume no obligation to update any forward-looking statements. In addition, today’s call includes discussions of certain non-GAAP financial measures. Tables reconciling these non-GAAP financial measures are available in the supplemental information package in the Investors section of the company’s website at crowncastle.com. So with that, let me turn the call over to Jay.
Jay Brown:
Thanks, Ben, and good morning, everyone. We delivered another great quarter of financial results, reflecting the significant demand for our shared infrastructure assets and the terrific execution by our team. Given the positive momentum we continue to see in our towers and fiber results, we are investing in our business to generate future growth while delivering dividend per share growth of 7% to 8% per year. With our strategy and unmatched portfolio of more than 40,000 towers and approximately 70,000 route miles of fiber concentrated in the top U.S. markets where we see the greatest potential demand growth, we believe we are uniquely positioned to translate growth in data demand into growth in cash flows and dividends per share. As the volume of data delivered by both wireless and wired networks continues to grow, our customers are increasing the capacity of their networks by leasing additional access to our tower and fiber infrastructure assets, which in turn generates growth in our cash flows. As you can see in our 2019 outlook, this positive backdrop is resulting in higher levels of new leasing activity across all of our assets. On the tower side of the business, our customers are improving and densifying their networks by adding more equipment to existing leases and adding to new leases on our towers. The higher levels of tower leasing we experienced in the back half of 2018 has continued into this year, affirming our expectation for an increase in tower leasing this year as compared to 2018. With regards to fiber and further highlighting the strong demand for our infrastructure, we expect to nearly double the number of small cells we deploy in 2019 after installing a record number of small cells last year. Our strategy has positioned us to take advantage of the increasing activity by our wireless customers as they respond to the continued growth in data. To this end, we are excited about the significant investments we are making to build new fiber assets as we pursue this expanding small-cell opportunity. By focusing our investment in high-capacity fiber across the top markets where we see the greatest potential demand for small cells, we believe we are extending the potential long-term growth in cash flows and dividends per share. Our fiber strategy utilizes the same playbook we used with towers by sharing the asset across multiple customers. With our leading capabilities and fiber solutions, we have the ability to increase the yields on our fiber investments by growing cash flows from both small cells and fiber solution customers that require access to the same high-capacity, dense fiber asset in the top markets of the U.S. By sharing a common asset across a larger customer base, we are able to provide each of our customers with cost-effective access to the critical infrastructure they need while generating significant value for our shareholders over time as we lease our assets and generate cash flows. Consistent with our expectations, we continue to see very attractive returns on small-cell investments with initial yields of 6% to 7% for the first tenant. And similar to towers, we are seeing demand for multiple tenants on the same asset, in this case fiber, resulting in high incremental margins that increase the returns above our cost of capital on the second tenant with additional upside as we add more tenants over time. To date, we have invested approximately $13 billion of capital to establish fiber footprints in prime locations across the top U.S. markets where we see the greatest long-term demand. These investments are already yielding 8% and have significant available capacity to further increase the return as we add new small cell and fiber solutions customers. While those returns are great and justify the investment, I get even more excited when I consider how early we are in the digital transformation of the U.S. economy and in the critical role our infrastructure will play. The current demand environment is largely tied to our customers investing heavily in their 4G networks to keep pace with the 30% to 40% annual data demand growth from existing technologies while the investment in 5G is just getting started. Recent commentary from the White House and FCC that they are committed to ensuring the U.S. wins the race to be the world’s leader in providing 5G underscores our belief that the U.S. is the best market in the world for infrastructure ownership. We believe 5G has the potential to significantly increase the demand on communications networks by moving beyond simply connecting millions of people to potentially connecting billions of devices in the future. The size of the opportunity will likely attract significantly more investment in networks over time from both existing operators as well as potential new entrants that will require access to network infrastructure at scale. While we continue to underwrite our investments to attract – to generate attractive shareholder returns based on existing applications and technologies, we believe the network infrastructure needed to support 5G will dramatically increase the demand for our tower and fiber assets over time. It is truly an exciting time in our industry. And in many ways, it reminds me of several other points in time over the past two decades as we are currently benefiting from the significant ongoing investment in today’s networks while also looking forward with great anticipation of what lies ahead. How exactly the investment in 5G ultimately transforms the way we live and work is yet to be determined. But if past is prologue, I suspect most are underestimating the magnitude of the change and the corresponding opportunity for us. With our unmatched asset base and expertise, I believe Crown Castle is in a great position to play an important role in the next chapter of this industry. And with that, I’ll turn the call over to Dan.
Dan Schlanger:
Thanks, Jay, and good morning, everyone. As Jay discussed, we delivered another quarter of solid growth, and we remain excited about the positive long-term industry fundamentals that are creating significant demand for our unique portfolio of communications infrastructure. Turning to Slide 4 of the presentation. You can see we had a great quarter with site rental revenues increasing 6%, adjusted EBITDA increasing 8% and AFFO increasing 9% when compared to the same period a year ago. Turning to Page 5, we are maintaining our full year outlook for site rental revenues, adjusted EBITDA and AFFO. At the midpoint, the expected organic contribution to site rental revenues from 2018 to 2019 represents approximately 6% growth year-over-year compared to 5.6% for full year 2018. The higher expected growth this year is driven by higher levels of new leasing activity for both towers and small cells with consistent year-over-year contribution to growth from fiber solutions. It’s worth highlighting that historically speaking, the second quarter represents the low watermark with respect to quarterly AFFO during the year. This is primarily caused by certain seasonal expense items that tend to be higher in the second quarter relative to the first quarter, including cash taxes and repair and maintenance expenses, which impacts both sustaining capital expenditures and operating expenses. From a balance sheet perspective, we continue to improve our financial flexibility. In February, we issued $1 billion of unsecured notes with 10 and 30-year maturities, utilizing the net proceeds to repay outstanding revolver borrowings. By taking advantage of favorable market conditions, we were able to proactively lock in attractive long-term interest rates and extend the weighted average maturity of our outstanding debt to approximately 6.5 years. Additionally, following the close of the quarter, we established a $1 billion commercial paper program that we intend to use as a short-term funding source. This program provides a potentially lower cost option relative to our revolver while increasing our flexibility by tapping into another pool of capital. As we have previously stated, we intend to finance the business with approximately five turns of leverage longer-term, consistent with our commitment to maintaining our investment-grade credit profile. So in closing, our first quarter results were in line with our expectations, and we believe we remain well positioned to generate approximately 7% growth in AFFO per share in 2019. Looking further out, we are excited about the current investments we are making in new assets that we believe will extend the long-term opportunity to generate compelling returns for our shareholders with a combination of dividends and growth. With that, Cody, I’d like to open the call to questions.
Operator:
Thank you. [Operator Instructions] We’ll take our first question from Simon Flannery with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.
Simon Flannery:
Thanks very much. Good morning. Turning to the small cells, you talked about the increased pacing in the small-cell build this year. Perhaps you could just get into a little bit more detail about where you are on that trajectory in the 10,000 to 15,000 range. And what specifically is happening to help you achieve that? And any more color you could provide on how the lease-up of the initial build is going? Thank you.
Jay Brown:
Good morning, Simon. On your first question, we’re on pace as we talked about to be able to put the number of small cells on air this year of about double what we did in 2018. That activity is ramping through the course of 2019, such that by the end of 2019, we think we’ll put about double the number that we had in 2018 on air. It’s going as expected. We had – obviously, this represents – given the time line to build these of 18 months to 24 months, this is the culmination of work that’s been ongoing for some period of time, so we’ve already built the organization to be able to handle that level of activity, and a lot of the activity required in order to get that many small cells on air has taken place in past periods. So we feel pretty good about where we are. On the data points around what we’re seeing with lease-up, consistent with what we’ve been talking about over the last couple of years, we’re continuing to see proof points in a number of different markets where we have acquired fiber from whether it’s FiberNet or Lightower or other acquisitions that we’ve done over time, we’ve seen that fiber begin to lease-up for small cells. And then the assets that we have built, specifically for small cells, we’ve continued to see lease-up on those assets that’s in line with our expectation of being able to exceed our cost of capital with that second tenant and then continued upside as we share the asset across customers into the future. As we’ve talked about and I think this is reflective of our results, given the opportunities that we see in small cells to invest further capital, a significant portion of the activity that’s ongoing for small cells is the continuation of building new assets or immature assets. We’re putting those on air at somewhere in the neighborhood of about a 6% to 7% initial yield on invested capital. And given the opportunities and the data points that we’ve seen that these assets are going to lease up over time when we build them in the best markets, we’re continuing to expand and grow the pie. So whether it’s margin expansion or return on capital, we’re basically constantly diluting the legacy mature portfolio – maturing portfolio with new assets that come in, in that 6% to 7% initial yield and lower margins than assets that have been on air for quite a period of time. And given the scale with which we’re doing the new activity and expanding our footprint, that has a far more significant impact to our financial results, frankly, than the lease-up does.
Simon Flannery:
And how do you think about expanding – you talked about best markets, but going beyond your existing markets to newer markets, is there any opportunity there?
Jay Brown:
Well, the vast majority of the activity would be focused on the top 30 markets currently in the U.S. That’s the focus of the wireless operator. So the vast majority of our capital is we’re supporting them and building for them. It’s really focused on those top 30 markets. Based on both their public comments and some activity that we’ve seen, we think this is going to go well beyond the top 30 markets and be impactful to at least the top 100 markets. And if the returns stay where – based on what we have seen in the top 30 markets, we’re happy to continue to follow them in the markets beyond the top 30. But at this point, the vast majority of our capital investment would be focused in the top 30 markets, and that would go for both the nodes that we have on air as well as nodes that we have won and are under contract and we’re in the process of beginning to build that will come on air over the next couple of years.
Simon Flannery:
Great, thanks so much.
Dan Schlanger:
Yes. Simon, it’s Dan. Just to follow up a little bit on that. Jay said if the returns are there, we’re going to continue to invest in the other markets as we continue to push out small cells and our customers do. But as we’ve said for a while now, we don’t see a huge opportunity for acquisitions to help us down that path. We think most of that will be organic type of build in those markets. We may see some tuck-in acquisitions, but the majority of what we see is the new build will be through spending our own capital and building out new assets.
Simon Flannery:
Great, thanks a lot.
Operator:
Thank you. And we’ll take our next question from David Barden, Bank of America.
Joshua Frantz:
Hey guys, it’s Josh in for Dave. Thanks for taking the question. Just a few, if I could. Can you break down the growth in the quarter within fiber solutions and the small cell part of the fiber segment and maybe any drivers there and then the growth you’re expecting within those pieces for the year? And then is there any seasonality within small cells when you can actually put nodes up winter over summer, something like that, that we should be aware of? Thanks.
Dan Schlanger:
So taking that first question – Josh, thanks. The breakdown of revenue in the quarter is similar to what it has been historically between fiber and small cells at about 75% fiber and 25% small cells. Importantly, though, as we look out over the course of 2019, consistent with keeping our guidance very similar, where we are is – where we were before is that the growth in small cells we anticipate to be between $70 million and $80 million in new leasing activity. And on the fiber side, it’ll be between $160 million and $17 million, which is consistent with what we said previously. So we see the growth rates be very similar to what we have been expecting. With respect to seasonality, there’s nothing that’s really seasonable – seasonal about deploying small cells. It really comes down to when we can get everything through the municipality’s permitted zones and then constructed. And that, as Jay pointed out earlier, takes 18 months to 24 months on average. But that can range beyond 18 on the low end and beyond 24 on the high end, so it really just depends on when all of that gets done when small-cell nodes get put on air.
Joshua Frantz:
Thanks. Is there any drivers in the fiber solutions side that you could call out in terms of growth in the quarter specifically?
Jay Brown:
No. I think as Dan mentioned, as we look at the calendar year 2019, we have the same expectation for how the year will play out as we did previously. And I wouldn’t point to anything seasonal in that business.
Joshua Frantz:
Got it, thanks. Thanks for taking the questions.
Jay Brown:
You bet.
Dan Schlanger:
Thanks.
Operator:
Thank you. We’ll now move on to Brett Feldman with Goldman Sachs.
Brett Feldman:
Thanks. So we look at full year guidance, you obviously implying that there’ll be acceleration. You had 5.7% organic contributions to growth this quarter, and I believe the midpoint on average for the year is at 6%. I’m just curious as we think about what drives the acceleration, I would guess it was probably ramped in small cells. But if there’s more nuance, color you can provide on that, that would be very helpful.
Jay Brown:
Well, I think we’ve got acceleration happening across the business, Brett. If you look at our numbers, as Dan just mentioned, year-over-year, we’re expecting about $15 million more of new leasing activity on towers as compared to 2018. And on the small cell side, there’s about $20 million more, so that’s impacting the fiber segment. Year-over-year, the growth numbers on fiber solutions are masked a bit by the acquisition activity, but there’s meaningful more revenue from fiber solutions in calendar year 2019 compared to 2018. But I wouldn’t point to necessarily another acceleration beyond what we’ve talked about here. As we look at the full year, it’s up meaningfully from 2018 towards the elevated end of what we saw at the end of 2018, in fourth quarter results, and we’re seeing that kind of activity continue into 2019. We do think – as I made the point in my comments, we don’t think this is a short-term change in the activity given what’s happening in the landscape and the focus of the carriers of continuing to deploy for 4G given the growth they’re seeing in data networks. We think we’re in a period of time where we’re going to see some sustained and be elevated levels of tower leasing activity and drive towards small cells. And then the long-term aspects of that, we think, is at least extending the runway of growth in the business as the next leg of technologies and opportunities are on the horizon.
Brett Feldman:
Got it. If I could just follow-up on something that you were talking about earlier. I think you had said that the small-cell deployments you had targeted for this year was in scope of what you were logistically capable of doing. And I’m curious, do you think you’re sort of at a run rate in terms of level of small-cell deployments just because that means you’re finally getting some operating leverage in business if you’re not scaling up your G&A anymore?
Jay Brown:
Yes. I think if the level of activity were to stay similar to what we’re going to undertake in 2019, then yes, we’ve scaled the organization to be able to do that, and we’ll see the benefit of operating leverage there. As I would think about operating leverage, the vast majority of margin expansion in our business – you can look at the tower model and see the same dynamic. The vast majority of the expansion of margin happens as we have a stable asset base and then we add tenants to that stable asset base over time, and then you see a really steady growth in margins. In the case of small cells, given the amount of activity that’s really related to expanding the portfolio, even though there are components of the portfolio from years ago that we had built, that’s relatively small compared to the amount of new activity that’s coming on where we’re building new markets. And therefore, the margin expansion or the leveraging of the cost structure, in essence the asset base, you don’t see that reflected in the margins as quickly as what you do or as directly as what you do on the tower side. We’re seeing it in pockets as we look for data points to test our assumptions, to see whether or not the business is developing as we would expect. But I think we’re going to continue to see margins – it won’t expand as quickly on the fiber side as we continue to put – as I’ve discussed earlier in the call, continue to put immature assets into the mix. Those new assets have lots of growth potential. But initially, they basically dilute the margins down.
Brett Feldman:
Got it, thank you.
Jay Brown:
You bet.
Operator:
Thank you. We’ll now move on to our next question from Jon Atkin with RBC.
Jon Atkin:
Thanks. So real quick on MLAs, I wondered if you could maybe just sort of review for us of your MLAs that kind of encompass macro towers, how many are holistic arrangements where your revenue growth is mostly fixed irrespective of tenant activity level versus framework agreements where your revenue growth kind of flexes in relation to leasing activity? And then maybe in addition on the MLA topic, how many include small cells as a component of that? Thanks.
Jay Brown:
Yes. Jon, on the first part of your question, we – as you know, we are very hesitant to talk about the kinds of contracts that we sign with customers and who those customers are. So I’m going to kind of – I’ll beg off of your question, I think, in terms of the specificity with which you’re asking it. I think as you look at our leasing activity, though, more broadly, the mix of activity that’s driving new tower leasing on the tower leasing side is about 50% is new installs on existing assets and then about 50% is amendment activity. So in terms of revenue – incremental revenue growth that we’re experiencing across the portfolio, that’s the drivers. From a pricing standpoint, as we agree with customers around what the activity is going to look like on how we price that, the majority of the activity that we see on the tower side, both for new installs as well as amendments, we’ve agreed with our customers around what the price component looks like. So they’ll come back and tell us how many antennas or lines or other things or space they need at the base of the tower, and we would have agreed a fee schedule with them that would cover basically all of the assets. But each of the customers, depending on the spectrum bands that they’re using, the markets that they’re using, there would be varying levels of commitment on the tower side as to how much activity they’ve committed to related to that, but the pricing has been mostly fixed. On the small cell side, we really have not done that in any way with the wireless operators. Those contracts, as we’ve talked about on past calls, it’s highly dependent upon the cost structure of the asset by market. So while in towers, there’s a national – there’s, in essence, a national pricing schedule that we can agree with the carriers, we’ve got to get very granular on the small cell side to understand the mix of aerial versus buried fiber, the regulatory fees or processes in a given market. And that can change pretty dramatically what the pricing schedule is with the carrier depending on the market and where in the market their desire is for small cells. So there’s not a way to do that easily on a national basis, so we basically need to go market-by-market and agree pricing at that level.
Jon Atkin:
Can you – just as a corollary and you can maybe answer it later in the call if you don’t have it handy, but a year ago, what was that mix that you indicated for this most recent quarter between new installs and amendments? And then kind of further down on the small cell question, can you maybe give a sense to the pipeline and how concentrated it is by customer? Is it like 30-30, 20-20 or 40-30, 20-10? Or how would you kind of characterize the diversity of the demand?
Jay Brown:
Yes. On your question about a year ago, maybe Dan or somebody can grab that number, but I believe it was about 60% amendments, 40% new installs. We were between 60% and 65% amendments over the last – really longer than a year ago, we could go back probably 24 months to 36 months, and it was pretty steady where about two-thirds of the activity was being driven by amendments and one-third by new installs. So we’ve seen a little bit of an increase in new – first-time installs relative to amendments in more recent periods. With regards to the pipeline, we’re continuing to see activity across all four of the wireless operators, so there’s a good mix of small-cell activity from all of the operators. And it varies by market as to what their focus is, but we’ve got significant activities underway from each of the big four.
Dan Schlanger:
And Jon, as we have disclosed historically, we’re about 65,000 small cells on air and under development, and that was true at the end of last quarter. It’s true again at the end of this quarter. It’s just moved a little bit from – what we said last quarter was about 50-50 between on air and under development. Now we’re about 35,000 on air and 30,000 under development or in the pipeline. As we put more nodes on air and didn’t have substantial bookings in this quarter, but that was not unexpected just given the pace of bookings that we had through last year, and sometimes they are lumpy. So it doesn’t speak to any change in activity levels or what our expectations are going forward. It’s just a shift right now between on air and under development.
Jon Atkin:
And then last one for me. I think you alluded to it in the question Josh asked. But e-rates and kind of seasonality sounds like you didn’t really see much, but I wondered if you can sort of confirm that. And then what’s the competitive dynamics for e-rate? Is it basically highly competitive or less so and very much dependent on your routes? Thanks.
Jay Brown:
Yes. I would say the same thing I said to Josh about the seasonality. There’s some seasonality as those contracts come up and schools look at what their fiber needs are going to be for the next school year. Depending on the timing at which they do that, there can be some seasonality in that. Given the size of our business though, that’s really a very small component. So while some elements may have a little bit of seasonality to it, I think at the overall, it just does not impact the financial statements. Similar – on your competitive question, similar to what we’ve seen in all of the infrastructure businesses, having assets in the right location is most of the time what drives the answer to how competitive a space is. And the same thing is true in fiber. So generally speaking, there are a limited number of providers who can provide high-capacity, dense urban fiber. And depending on where our routes are and where our fiber is, we’re going to have a high likelihood of winning some of that business. To the extent that we don’t, then it may be a part of the market where we’re not competitive and may choose not even to bid because the economics just won’t reflect an appropriate return.
Jon Atkin:
Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. We’ll now take our next question from Nick Del Deo with MoffettNathanson.
Nick Del Deo:
Hi, thanks for taking my questions. To put a finer point on an earlier question, if we assume a reasonable growth rate and revenue share for small cells, it looks like fiber solutions revenue is flat or down sequentially this quarter, and that’s after it looked like it had been flatter down sequentially two quarters ago. Is that correct? And is there anything we should be aware of here? And I guess more generally, can you describe your confidence in the longer-term mid-single-digit growth outlook you’ve laid out for fiber solutions, not for 2019 which you reaffirmed, but the outlook beyond that?
Dan Schlanger:
Yes. Nick, the growth rate of fiber solutions in the first quarter was lower than what our fiber long-term growth rate is. But we still think that – as we mentioned and as Jay mentioned about 2019, we still think we’ll get to that 5% or mid-single digit growth rate and still have confidence that beyond that, we’ll be able to make that happen. There’s nothing specific that happened in the quarter. It’s not something that gives us a lot of concern at all because it’s just – it’s timing of when bookings happen when things go on air. It’s not something that changed obviously the outlook for 2019.
Nick Del Deo:
Okay, got it. And then Sprint is talking about having deployed almost 20,000 small cells on Altice’s HFC plans. Now there are obviously puts and takes associated with using coax rather than fiber. It’s probably pretty cheap to put up. If we eventually see the other cable operators strike analogous arrangements with other carriers, do you see this being relevant for your small cell business?
Jay Brown:
I think I would – just stepping back, Nick, broadly. When we look at the amount of spectrum that’s laying silo in the hands of operators and the spectrum that is likely to come to market over the next coming decade based on what the FCC has talked about, there’s going to need to be a significant amount of deployment activities. And I suspect that both the wireless operators as well as cable companies, there may be other entrants into the market that want to have network elements beyond just who we would think of today as owning networks. And they are going to look across the board at opportunities to use infrastructure and are going to need to use a number of different types of facilities in order to deploy that spectrum. So when I see things like what you’re mentioning, I think that will be one of the elements that are used in order to fill the need for spectrum deployment. But I believe the pie is going to be so large that it’s not going to be detrimental to our growth rates or expected growth rates that those kind of things are going to happen. I think it’s somewhat analogous to – so I remember back years ago when we were kind of moving from 2G to 2.5G, 3G and people were really concerned about what Wi-Fi was going to do to our business and there are a lot of fears that Wi-Fi was going to completely offload the need for the deployment of spectrum on towers. And the growth has more than overcome that, so the growth and the demand on the networks. And at the same time, our customers are going to look for the lowest-cost provision to deliver network resources to the consumer to meet the needs. So I think what you highlighted is one of the ways that they will look for a way to supplement their network deployments. But I think it’s just one component of it, and I don’t believe that will be impactful to our long-term growth rates.
Dan Schlanger:
Yes. And just piggybacking on that a little bit. As I look at – as our customers look to deploy network as inexpensively and efficiently as possible, that’s where we come in because we’re able to share the asset among all of the customers and share those economics that, that is exactly the value that we bring is to be able to deploy all of that spectrum in the most efficient way possible, which is why we’re so excited about the future is that we think we have the right assets in the right places to allow our customers to meet the increasing demand over time with the least expense and the most efficient manner.
Nick Del Deo:
Got it. Thanks, guys.
Operator:
Thank you. We’ll now take our next question from Ric Prentiss with Raymond James.
Ric Prentiss:
Yes. Hey, guys, good morning.
Jay Brown:
Hey, Ric.
Ric Prentiss:
Can you hear me, okay.
Jay Brown:
Yes, we can.
Ric Prentiss:
Okay, good morning. I want to follow up on a couple of questions, your answer back on Jonathan’s question about the nodes. Jay, I think you mentioned that you want to – you’re thinking that you could do 2x what you did in 2018 as far as nodes on air. Can you remind us how much you did in 2018 just so we kind of have a framework?
Jay Brown:
We did about 7,500 in 2018, so we expect to be in the ballpark of about 15,000 in 2019.
Ric Prentiss:
That’s great. And Dan, you mentioned seasonality, I appreciate that. 2Q usually is the low quarter because of cash taxes and the ability to do maintenance. Some other seasonal ones we had a question on, your services business in the first quarter was really strong as far as gross margins, but the guidance as far as what services would contribute in 2019 didn’t change. How should we think about – is it that it’s going to fall off in the second part of the year? Or is there something contractual or are you just being conservative? How should we think about the services business?
Dan Schlanger:
First, I just want to remind you that when we talk about fourth quarter services business, we said there was about $5 million that pushed off due to timing. So you can see that, that could hit in the first quarter. So I don’t think that we – in our guidance going forward, we do not anticipate a slowdown necessarily. What we anticipate is a continuation of the type of activity that we see and have seen, as Jay mentioned, on the tower side. So we think it’s going to be continuing activity. We’re excited about it, and it really is timing is what you’re seeing more than anything.
Ric Prentiss:
Okay, that makes sense. And then also there was a little spike-up in corporate SG&A in the first quarter. Is that a good run rate? Or what was going on there? Is there anything out of – kind of unusual out of period there?
Dan Schlanger:
Yes. There were a few things that – we’re not going to call out a tick-and-tie that probably pushed it up a little bit. But the reason that we’re able to maintain our guidance over the course of 2019 is we anticipate to be where we thought we were going to be last quarter, so everything we think is in line with what we had anticipated before, so nothing really substantial one way or the other.
Ric Prentiss:
And last one for me. When you think about keeping your balance sheet balanced and funding the capital program that you mentioned that you guys are excited to keep rolling out fiber with build versus buying acquisitions. How do you think about debt raising versus equity raising as far as funding the capital program? I think you said this year, it’s going to be debt. But how do you think about that given where interest rates might be headed or where your stock price is at?
Dan Schlanger:
Yes. So what we look at is – we are committed to maintaining our investment-grade rating, which we think takes about five time leverage. So what we’re trying to do is maintain that five times debt-to-EBITDA target or close to it as we can, and which means that if we can grow our EBITDA and have sufficient leverage capacity associated with that, that can cover our capital program, then that’s what we’re going to do. If we then have a capital program that is in excess of our cash flows and our EBITDA leverage growth or leverage capacity growth, then we’ll go out and sell equity. For 2019, what we anticipate is that the EBITDA growth will lead to leverage capacity that will allow us to fund our capital program with debt, and that doesn’t change just because our stock price is somewhere or is not. And when we look forward though, as we see more capital commitments come, we’ll have to do that calculus again and determine whether the EBITDA growth will allow us to spend the money and utilize debt to spend for that capital or whether it requires some equity. But generally speaking, we’re trying to minimize the amount of equity we issue, so keeping that five time debt leverage is where we’re headed. And to the extent that we get to the point where we want to sell equity or need to sell equity to maintain that five times leverage, then we’ll try to do it at the highest price possible and limit the number of shares we put out.
Ric Prentiss:
Makes sense. Appreciate the color guys. Have a good day.
Dan Schlanger:
Thanks, Ric.
Operator:
We will now take our next question from Colby Synesael with Cowen and Company.
Colby Synesael:
Great, thank you. Two questions, if I may. One is just a housekeeping item on CapEx. I think last quarter, you guys had indicated you expect to spend roughly $2 billion and just some of the commentary on this call seems to focus on continuing to push forward with investment, and I’m curious if that’s still the expectation. And then I guess to that point as it relates to capital raising and debt and equity and all that good stuff, when I look at your debt financing that I think that you’ll need for this year assuming a target of maintaining that five turns of leverage, even when I do that, I look at your interest expense and it seems like your guidance for the year seems low. I mean even if you take the first quarter at $168 million, that’s $672 million annualized versus your guidance of $687 million to $732 million. What would drive the interest expense up to the levels that you’re still assuming in your guidance? Thank you.
Jay Brown:
On the first question around CapEx, we’re not changing our outlook for 2019, so we still think that we’ll be investing about $2 billion of capital in the calendar year. My comments around our desire to continue to invest are more forward looking than just 2019 and are reflective of the environment that we’re seeing and the actions that our carriers are taking against the shared infrastructure that we’ve built both on the fiber and tower side. And we are continuing to pursue and look for opportunities on that front. And as we’ve mentioned, because the build schedule is so long, 18 to 24 months in those cases, to the extent that there was a change in the trajectory of capital needs, you’ll see that show up in our commentary around what the pipeline is and how many nodes are to come. If that were to change meaningfully, then I think what you were trying to determine, Colby, around the trajectory and is there growth there, then we would let you know as early as we could around here’s where we think the trajectory on capital spending is going to go. But for 2019, we don’t need to make any changes. We think it’s going to be about $2 billion in the calendar year.
Dan Schlanger:
Yes. And Colby, on the interest expense, I’m going to try to answer your question, but I’m not sure I got it completely, so jump back on and ask if I missed it. But there are a lot of assumptions that go into that interest expense forecast, including timing of debt raises, what we use on revolver, how we term it out, what the interest rate is going to be. So all of that is baked into our best guess of what interest expense will look like, and that is what is reflected in our guidance. And what I couldn’t tell is whether you’re asking why it was too high or too low. So…
Colby Synesael:
If I look at the $168 million that you just did in the quarter and simply annualize that, you get to $672 million in the range for your interest expense guidance, which obviously impacts your AFFO. It’s $687 million to $732 million. And even if I assume you raised debt with the assumption you maintain something around five turns of leverage, it still seems difficult to get to that $687 million to $732 million range.
Jay Brown:
Yes. Okay. So I understand your question. What I would say again is just it has a lot of assumptions that go into that, and that’s why we give a range. We think that range is appropriate for what we anticipate our funding sources will be to pay for the capital expenditures we have in 2019.
Colby Synesael:
Okay, thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. We will now take our next question from Matthew Niknam with Deutsche Bank.
Matthew Niknam:
Hey, guys. Thank you for taking the question. On the small cell business, so I’m just curious, is the FCC small-cell order that came out late last year, is that helping you streamline the timing for deployment at least on the margin from the traditional 18 to 24 months you talked about in the past? And if not today, when do you anticipate this 18 to 24-month window shrinking over time? And then just secondly, on leasing activity, any meaningful contribution on the site leasing front you’d call out from non-traditional customers, so sort of beyond the Big 4 wireless carriers in the quarter? Thanks.
Jay Brown:
Matthew, on your first question around the benefit of the FCC order, it has been beneficial primarily because it has given more certainty around cost and timing of navigating the local municipalities. So it has been helpful on that front, particularly in markets and locations where there was an absolute blocker that had been put up by local municipalities. The FCC order has been very helpful in starting to move some of those locations off of an absolute prohibition of getting it done. So it’s been helpful on that front. As I’ve mentioned, though, in past calls on this topic, I would not anticipate that the time line of building nodes would shorten considerably from what we’ve seen 18 to 24 months of time line to build small cells. Even with the FCC order, there’s still a significant amount of coordination that has to happen with local municipalities as we work to deploy small cells in the public right of way. And I don’t see anything on the horizon that’s likely to shorten that deployment schedule by a meaningful amount as I look at the nationwide average of 18 to 24 months. So I would not assume that, that happens. From a pragmatic standpoint, the amount of activity that we’re seeing in small cells as we talked about the doubling of the number of nodes that we’re going to put on air, that puts tremendous pressure at the regulatory level of local municipalities to process applications and also on the utility side. So in some cases, we’ve seen – while the FCC order has been very helpful, there’s another long pole in the tent in terms of just sheer volume and the amount of volume that we’re now trying to push through at the municipality level for application approvals and through utilities bringing power to these locations in order to get small cells on air. So the amount of activity that we have seen and have staffed up for is not – there’s not necessarily the same correlation at the local municipality and utility level to process applications. So that’s certainly a challenge of the overall system. On the leasing front…
Dan Schlanger:
Yes. So the contribution of non-traditional customers, I think what we’ve said and we try not to talk specifically about customers is tat we are seeing some demand coming from pockets other than the Big 4 carriers that is driving some of our demand right now, and it’s something that we think will continue and we’re excited about.
Matthew Niknam:
Okay, thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. We will now take our next question from Robert Gutman with Guggenheim Securities.
Robert Gutman:
Hi. Thanks for taking the questions. You said there was limited new small-cell bookings in the quarter, but I don’t know if you provided the breakout of the – I think it was $87 million of new leasing between the three respective segments. And I was wondering out of the small-cell backlog, not sure if you’ve provided sort of the breakout of what proportion are second tenant builds versus initial builds.
Dan Schlanger:
Yes. So what I was speaking to is our – as I’ve said before, the total number of small-cell nodes on air and under development remained about 65,000. It’s just the shift happened from about a 50-50 split between the two into more being on air, about 35,000 on air and 30,000 under development. And that we – what that means basically is that we won a huge number of bookings in the quarter. As we look out and Jay said, there’s a lot of anticipation of continuation of bookings because the pace of activity has not changed very much. And so we’re excited about what the future looks like. And part of that is because, to your second question, around what is new anchor builds versus co-location, it remained about the same about 80% anchor build and 20% co-location or somewhere in that general vicinity because we’re continuing to build out both within the markets that we have and then expanding within those markets into new geographic regions of those markets. So what we’re excited about with that is all that does is provide new assets that we believe over time will be the driver of what Jay was talking about earlier of incremental margin once the asset does stabilize. So we are happy with that proportion of anchor build remaining in that 70%, 80% range. It really hasn’t changed for a while now.
Jay Brown:
Robert, just to pick up on Dan’s point, which is, I think, really helpful context to some of the things I was making comments around earlier around the continued building out of new markets in areas of the market. If you take roughly, and I’m not trying to pin the number down exactly, but if you take about 20% of the activity that we’ll see in calendar year 2019 on small cells going on air, that means in the neighborhood of about 3,000 co-locations are going to happen in calendar year 2019. If we go backwards three or four years, you’re talking about well over half of the total nodes that we put on air in those years are now in the form of co-locations. So we’re seeing the legacy assets that we have continue to grow the amount of co-locations that are going across them. But as we talk about scaling and continuing to, as we are in calendar year 2019 or expect to in 2019, doubling the amount of activity, that 20% of co-locations, the percentage doesn’t lie to you because the numbers are growing so large in terms of the amount of investment that we’re making. But the number of proof points that we have that the co-location model is working is increasing significantly, far more than just talking about the percentages of breakout between co-location and new leasing would suggest.
Robert Gutman:
Great, thanks. And any color on fiber versus micro tower in the new leasing number for the quarter?
Dan Schlanger:
Yes. We’re not going to break that out quarter-by-quarter. Just the color is that for 2019, it remains the same at that 70 to 80 on small cell and 160 to 170 on fiber solutions.
Robert Gutman:
Got it. Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. We’ll now move on to our next question from Walter Piecyk with BTIG.
Walter Piecyk:
Thanks. If you have a customer on the small cell that has LTE and then they add a 5G, is that an amendment or a new lease-up? And if it’s an amendment, what’s typically the percentage at from what they were paying for the original 4G small cell?
Jay Brown:
Walter, probably the best way to describe it, and this is generality because there could be cases where this answer would not be the case, so I don’t mean it to be blanket 100%. But generally speaking, that would look like a brand-new tenant on the small cell system. The types of equipment that we expect to see in 5G would result in them using up another entire slot on the – in the cabinet, and so it’s likely that it would look much more like a full tenant than it would look like an amendment. And so economically, when we talk about adding the second tenant, exceeding – basically getting into a place where we’re exceeding our cost of capital, that’s the way the economics would follow, generally speaking.
Dan Schlanger:
And also...
Walter Piecyk:
So the deployment that I saw, it was basically taking a slot on a lamppost. So for sure, they were taking a slot where another carrier was then, right? So there has to be a new lease.
Jay Brown:
Exactly right.
Dan Schlanger:
And it also is taking another pair of fiber. So with a lot of the capital being in the fiber, it really is based on the fact that we’re utilizing that shared asset again, and that’s what’s driving the economics.
Walter Piecyk:
Got it. And then when we think long term in terms of trying to size the market and the number of small cells, obviously, extremely early stage at 15,000 a year. And Jay, you and I have talked in the past about whatever, a much larger number on an annual basis. What do you think we should think about in terms of a 30-foot elevation, whether it’s LTE or 5G, in terms of feet or meters of coverage when we’re trying to size the number of small cells that will exist in a market?
Jay Brown:
I think it’s hard to answer that question because of the way these things, I think, will likely get deployed by municipality. How much space do they take up will be driven by a lot of local market dynamics around how many feet can you put on a different pole, how tall are their poles, what area inside of the market are they…
Walter Piecyk:
Sorry to interrupt, Jay, I meant feet of coverage, not feet on the lamppost, feet of the coverage of what the small cell reaches.
Jay Brown:
Probably – I think what we’re seeing today would look something like a city block in most cases is the coverage that you’re getting out of it. In dense urban areas, you’re really covering the streets in between buildings and maybe some in building coverage. As you get to more of the suburban deployments, you might cover a little bit more than a few hundred yards but not much more than that. That’s about the limitation of what you’re going to use small cells to cover.
Walter Piecyk:
Right. So a city block, I think typically, unless you’re talking about the big avenues in New York, are about 350 feet? Does that sound about right?
Jay Brown:
It’s about – I was just going to say it might be a little longer than that in some suburbia. But generally speaking, that’s a pretty good measure.
Walter Piecyk:
Got it. And just one last quick question. In the last six months, have you gotten any inquiries from infrastructure investment funds for a possible acquisition of the company?
Jay Brown:
I’m not going to comment specifically on any potential deals out there. I think if you look at our investor mix, you’ve seen a couple of things over the last several years. One is we’ve seen more real estate investors come towards the space. I think as time has passed and we’ve been able to tell the story across the industry with our other two public peers, I think that has helped and has attracted some real estate money. And then infrastructure funds around the world, as they’ve looked at various businesses, again, the two public peers being able to tell the story of the nature of our business has attracted more capital. So I think as a proportion of overall capital in our firm, it’s grown in terms of infrastructure investors and real estate investors.
Walter Piecyk:
Great. Thank you very much.
Operator:
We’ll now move on to our next question from Batya Levi with UBS.
Batya Levi:
Great, thank you. First, can you provide an update on enterprise churns, what you’re seeing there? And I believe you mentioned that you would lean towards building fiber versus buying asset. Can you provide more color on that? Is that a change in valuations or type of asset that you see available? And on the macro side, can you remind us how much churn do you expect from the acquired networks this year? And does that all come off next year. And one final one, tenants per tower ticked down slightly, 2.1. Is it just rounding? Anything to call out there? Thank you.
Dan Schlanger:
Yes. Thanks, Batya. Again, if I missed one, just come back and ask. But on fiber solutions churn, we still anticipate it to be in the high single digits and believe that’s generally where it was for the quarter. Building versus buying fiber, that’s really not anything to do with valuation. It has to do with when we look out and look at the universe of potential acquisitions, the ability to meet the criteria that we utilize for purchasing fiber has diminished over time because we’ve bought a lot of the assets that we’re really interested in. So what we’re looking for is high-capacity fiber that has a lot of density in market, in the top 25 or 30 markets in the U.S. And there are just not that many – there are not that many targets out there that we would be interested in that meet all of those criteria. So it has very little to do with valuation and much more to do with strategic fit with our goal of putting small cells and fiber in the top markets in the U.S. From a macro standpoint on the churn from acquisitions, we had about – our churn is in the 1% to 2% range. It’s about 2% this year. About half of that is from the acquired network churn. And we believe that most of that will be done through the course of 2020. It’s just that because it happens through 2019, there will be some rollover effect of that acquired network churn into 2020. And then the tenant per tower going from 2.2 to 2.1, it really is rounding. But also just to remind you, it doesn’t take into account amendments, so it is not a real great measure of the activity we see on our towers. As we’ve been talking, the activity we’re seeing is increasing as our customers are spending to keep up with the data demand. And that is driving significant new leasing, which is a better measure of what that – of what the activity levels are on our tower business.
Batya Levi:
Got it. Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. We’ll now take our next question from Tim Horan with Oppenheimer.
Tim Horan:
I guess there’s some concern out there that the small cell radiuses are not going to be big enough to kind of support the cost for the small cell or that we’re not going to be able to kind of generate incremental revenue from 5G or whatever deploying. Obviously, you’re making a pretty big bet here. Any thoughts on that?
Jay Brown:
I think the challenge that the carriers are trying to solve is the amount of data traffic that’s going across – going across their networks. Towers are the most cost-effective way for them to deploy infrastructure and to broadcast spectrum, but those towers – a tower will lose its effectiveness in terms of geographic coverage and capacity at certain areas inside of the coverage area of that tower get tapped out by high usage. So they use small cells to basically underlay underneath the geographic coverage of towers to offload some of the – offload some of the data traffic demand in order to return the tower to its full effectiveness. So to isolate the economics on a single small cell really misses the broader point. The best analogy in terms of the design of the RF is to think about the towers as overhead lighting inside of the building and small cells are putting lamps, where you’re focusing light in a particular area. And the combination of that obviously balances the light inside of a room. The same thing is true on the RF side in terms of balancing the spectrum inside of a general geographic coverage area. And so the radius frankly is not as important as is the small cell capable of offloading some of the traffic from the macro site in order to return it to its maximum effectiveness, and they deploy small cells in order to most cost effectively use their macro sites.
Tim Horan:
Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. We will now take our final question...
Jay Brown:
And we have time for one more question.
Operator:
So we’ll take the final question from Spencer Kurn with New Street Research.
Spencer Kurn:
Hey, guys. Thanks for squeezing me in. So I’ve got a question on small cells. Last week Verizon struck a deal with the city of San Diego to utilize their municipal infrastructure to deploy small cells and fiber throughout city. When I look at your fiber math, it looks like you have a lot of fiber in San Diego. So it seems like Verizon is kind of circumventing you in one of your key markets. Is this a concern for you? Or how do you sort of frame this type of activity in the context of achieving your targeted returns with your fiber investments? Thanks.
Jay Brown:
Yes. You bet, Spencer. Broadly, the amount of activity that’s going to be needed based on what we think data growth is going to happen and then as we move towards 5G is there’s going to be – need to be a significant number of small cells that are deployed in order to meet the demand. We certainly don’t expect that we’re going to be the sole provider of all small cells in the U.S. And so at the moment, we think we’re somewhere in the neighborhood of about 50% of all the small cells being deployed. Crown Castle is about 50% of that overall activity. But we don’t have any expectation that we’re going to continue to main that kind of market share given the likely growth in the overall market and demand for it. At the moment, self-performed by the carriers would make up the majority of that other 50% that we’re not doing. And we would expect that the carriers will continue to do that. I think you’ll see over time that firms will go in and do deals with cities and municipalities in order to make deployments easier or faster. That’s certainly not the first or only deal that has been done on that front. There are a number of transactions like that, that we have done with municipalities, where we’ve gone on – gone in and worked with them in order to gain access to the infrastructure in the public right of way. And I think it’s just good business to do it that way. We’re all working collaboratively with the local municipalities in order to deploy small cells. So when I see those kind of things and I think it’s indicative of the overall broader market and the need for the deployment of infrastructure. But it frankly doesn’t concern me in terms of impacting what we think our returns are or our growth rates. I think it’s much more indicative of what the overall market growth and opportunity is.
Spencer Kurn:
Got it. That’s really helpful. Thanks.
Jay Brown:
You bet. Well, thanks everyone for joining us on the call this morning. I appreciate the questions and look forward to talking to you next quarter.
Operator:
Thank you. That does conclude today’s conference. Thank you all for your participation. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Good day, and welcome to the Crown Castle Q4 2018 Earnings Call. Today's conference is being recorded. At this time, I'd like to turn the conference over to Mr. Ben Lowe. Please go ahead, sir.
Ben Lowe:
Great. Thank you, Brian, and good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us today as we discuss our fourth quarter 2018 results. With me on the call this morning are Jay Brown, Crown Castle's Chief Executive Officer; and Dan Schlanger, Crown Castle's Chief Financial Officer. To aid the discussion, we've posted supplemental materials in the Investors section of our website at crowncastle.com, which we'll refer to throughout the call this morning. This conference call will contain forward-looking statements, which are subject to certain risks, uncertainties, and assumptions, and any actual results may vary materially from those expected. Information about potential factors which could affect our results is available in the press release and the Risk Factors sections of the company's SEC filings. Our statements are made as of today, January 24, 2019, and we assume no obligations to update any forward-looking statements. In addition, today's call includes discussions of certain non-GAAP financial measures. Tables reconciling these non-GAAP financial measures are available in the supplemental information package in the Investors section of the Company's website at crowncastle.com. So, with that, let me turn the call over to Jay.
Jay Brown:
Thanks Ben, and good morning, everyone. Thanks for joining us on the call. As you saw from our results, we've kept off another year of growth with solid fourth quarter results. As I look forward, I'm optimistic the positive trends we see in the market will drive demand for our communications infrastructure assets. And I believe Crown Castle is well positioned to take advantage of those trends and deliver growth and returns for shareholders for years to come. Through disciplined capital allocation and execution, we have established an unmatched portfolio of more than 40,000 towers and 65,000 route miles of high capacity fiber in the top U.S. markets, where we see the greatest long-term growth and opportunity. On this call, there are three important themes I want to discuss. First, 2018 was a successful year for Crown Castle. Secondly, our strategy of offering towers to small cells and fiber solutions is delivering the results we expected. And third, I'm excited about the long runway of growth as 4G investment remains robust and the deployment of 5G infrastructure is just getting started. On the first point, we delivered 10% growth in dividends per share in 2018, supported by cash flow growth across both our tower and fiber assets. Tower leasing increased in the back half of the year as all of our major customers' were actively investing in the network by deploying new cell sites and additional spectrum. Further, highlighting the strong demand for our infrastructure, we deployed a record number of small cells during 2018. In addition to the great operational performance in small cells, we added significantly more small cell nodes to our backlog than we installed in 2018. Meaning, we have a larger contracted pipeline of small cells to build today than we did at this time last year. Importantly, our team delivered these results while integrating our recent fiber acquisitions. With the integration work substantially complete, I'm excited as I look ahead and see the potential growth opportunity as we focus on adding both small cell and fiber solutions customers to our 65,000 route miles of dense, high capacity fiber. This brings me to my second point
Dan Schlanger:
Thanks Jay, and good morning, everyone. As Jay mentioned, we closed 2018 with solid fourth quarter results, completing another very successful year for Crown Castle in several fronts. We increased dividends per share by 10%, consistent with our growth in AFFO per share and our commitment to return capital to shareholders. We substantially completed the integration of our recent fiber acquisitions and made significant investments in new fiber assets across the top markets, where we see the greatest demand for small cells and fiber solutions. And we made those investments, while improving our overall financial flexibility by proactively refinancing upcoming maturities and increasing the average majority of our debt. Turning first to the fourth quarter 2018 results on Slide 4, I'm going to walk through a few items that should be considered when comparing the results to our prior outlook. First, site rental revenues exceeded the midpoint of the prior range by approximately $15 million, including $10 million of additional straight-lined revenues, primarily resulting from the term extensions associated with leasing activity. In addition, there are approximately $10 million of higher costs associated with the combination of additional incentive accruals for 2018 and the expenses associated with certain natural disasters that occurred during the quarter. The results were also impacted by approximately $5 million of lower services contribution that is timing-related. So we now expect that contribution in 2019. And finally, AFFO benefited by approximately $10 million from lower sustaining capital expenditures in the quarter, a portion of which are expected to now occur in 2019. Adjusting for the total impact of these items, results were within the ranges provided in our prior outlook for site rental revenues, adjusted EBITDA, and AFFO. For the full year 2018, site rental revenues increased approximately 29% or $1.05 billion including approximately 5.6% growth in organic contribution to site rental revenues. Moving on to investment activities during the year, we deployed approximately $1.7 billion in capital expenditures including $1.6 billion of revenue-generating capital expenditures comprised of $1.2 billion in fiber and approximately $350 million for towers. For the full year 2019, we expect gross CapEx of approximately $2 billion or approximately $1.5 billion net of prepaid rent. Based on our expected cash flow growth and the incremental leverage capacity that growth will create, we believe we can finance this level of spending without issuing equity. Supporting this belief, we ended 2018 at just over five times debt-to-EBITDA, consistent with our intent to finance the business with approximately five turns of leverage as we remain committed to maintaining our investment-grade credit profile. Additionally, with more than $3 billion of available capacity on our revolver and no maturities until 2021, we're comfortable with our debt balance sheet flexibility. Turning now to Slide 5 of the presentation, at the midpoints, we increased our full year 2019 outlook for site rental revenues and adjusted EBITDA by approximately $40 million due to higher straight-lined revenues, primarily resulting from the term extensions associated with leasing activity that I mentioned earlier. As you can see, AFFO guidance remains unchanged at approximately $5.85 per share as the higher straight-lined revenue does not contribute to AFFO. Turning to Slide 6, we now expect between $223 million and $268 million of growth in site rental revenues in 2019. As you can see in the chart on the Slide, when compared to the prior outlook, the only change relates to the impact of the higher straight-lined revenues I just discussed. Our expectations for growth in organic contribution to site rental revenues remain unchanged at approximately 6%, up from 5.6% in 2018. We continue to expect higher 2019 new leasing activity for both towers and small cells with consistent levels of growth from fiber solutions. To wrap-up, 2018 was another very successful year for Crown Castle and we're excited about the anticipated growth in our business in 2019. Currently, we are seeing the benefits from the investments our customers are making in wireless networks to keep pace with increasing data demand, which allows us to provide near-term returns through a high quality dividend that we expect to grow 7% to 8% annually. At the same time, we're making significant investments in our small cell and fiber business that we believe will position Crown Castle to take advantage of the long-term growth trends Jay discussed earlier. Because we are still early in the growth cycle for small cells, we believe our investments will provide significant long-term upside as we add tenants to those new assets. It is this combination of near-term returns and expected long-term upside that I think makes Crown Castle such an attractive investment. And with that Brian, I'd like to open the call to questions.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] We'll now take your first question from Simon Flannery from Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
Simon Flannery:
Coming back down to your comments around the balance sheet, could you just talk a little bit more about the use of leverage versus equity? So what are you comfortable with in terms of taking the leverage from where it is today? What's that upper end of that range? And then is there something that you might amend if say you were looking at some M&A? Maybe if you could just comment more broadly on any M&A opportunities that you might be considering? Thanks.
Dan Schlanger:
As we've discussed a lot in the past what we look at is we want to maintain an investment grade credit profile, which we believe means we need to stay at five times debt-to-EBITDA which is our target leverage. We've been right around there. We ended the year right around there, right at five times just north of it, and so when we look out and see what our expected capital spend is over the course of 2019 and the incremental EBITDA that we believe we will generate and the leverage capacity it will create, we think that we're going to be able to use that leverage capacity in our internally generated cash flow to pay for the capital expenditures and maintain around five times debt-to-EBITDA. So that's why we think that we're in a position where we don't need equity. From what we can tell right now, we don't need equity through 2019 based on what we see the capital spend profile to be. To your point though, if we do see some M&A activity out and think that's something that's attractive for us, that would be external to what we just talked about. That would be funded in a way that would be consistent with maintaining our investment grade rating and five times leverage, and would likely include equity because I think we're going to buy whatever company or assets we would buy it would be for more than five times. So it would include some equity at that point. But when we're talking about our capital program from 2019, we feel pretty good about our ability to finance it.
Jay Brown:
Simon, more broadly on the M&A front, we've talked about this I think the last several quarters on the call. We really don't see opportunities in the market of large scale that are going to fit our strategy, our focus around earning metro fiber that's dense with high capacity and believe the more likely approach for us is going to be to invest to be a building ourselves organic build. There may be some tuck-in acquisitions in some markets where we find an opportunity where it makes sense to buy it versus build it, but we think the more likely outcome is that we're going to be building fiber to meet the demand that we see coming for small cells.
Simon Flannery:
And it limited interest internationally?
Jay Brown:
Yes. We continue to believe the U.S. market is the best market in the world for the investment in communications infrastructure. We're always open to learning and seeing what else is going on in the world. But based on everything we've had the opportunity to see thus far we think the best opportunity for returns exist here in the U.S. it continues to be the largest and fastest growing market in the world. And to my comments that I made around 5G, we certainly believe the U.S. is going to lead the way on 5G in the amount of capital investments here and the potential opportunities we think are the greatest here in the U.S.
Operator:
We'll now take our next question from David Barden from Bank of America. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
David Barden:
I guess, one follow-up on that, Dan. Just when you guys gave guidance last quarter with the interest expense that you built in, it was clear that the debt funding was going to be the lead vehicle for financing the business. So can you give us any more color now in terms of what you're thinking in whether it's a revolver or debt unsecured or secured and kind of the timing as we think about kind of the numbers flowing through in the year? And then the second one is, could you guys share any kind of incremental color on the tenant extension that you kind of announced with the source of kind of the guidance raise this quarter? When I look at the supplement on page 18, it's really hard to see that anything really changed there at all? So it wasn't clear kind of what the moving part there was will be helpful. Thank you.
Dan Schlanger:
Sure. I'll take the first one Dave, and thanks for the question. When we put together the guidance as you pointed out, we had assumptions around how we would finance the business and through 2019, and nothing has significantly changed in the way we think about that. We clarified just now on the equity point but nothing has changed on how we think about financing our business. What we're trying to do is maintain our investment grade credit profile and do it at the lowest cost we possibly can. And when we look out and see what the market looks like in terms of trying to term out debt or what our revolver capacity is, we feel good about the flexibility we have on our balance sheet and we'll just be opportunistic as we look out and see when it makes sense to try to turn things out to the extent that we want to between secured and unsecured and anything - any other funding source we could possibly get our hands on because we want to be open to everything.
Jay Brown:
Dave to your second question, we did not do a new - as people would often term it a new deal during the quarter. So what we're speaking to and the adjustment that we made to the outlook doesn't have to do anything with something new that we crafted a new deal with customers. It was just related to the activity that we saw and then the term of the leases on those - on that leasing activity. So as you know we're hesitant to get into the specifics of how we transact with customers but that's what's driving the reference in both the press release and in the numbers.
David Barden:
So this wasn't something new. And it was not a term extension that got signed in the quarter?
Jay Brown:
It was not a new deal that we did no. It would be term related to the leasing activity that we saw during the quarter.
Operator:
We will now take our next question from Ric Prentiss from Raymond James. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
Ric Prentiss:
Appreciate for taking the question. Two quick ones. Dan you mentioned in your prepared remarks the CapEx, the 1.7 billion in 2018 and then in 2019 2 billion gross, 1.5 billion net. The 2018 number, is that 1.7 billion, is that a gross number or the net number?
Dan Schlanger:
That's a gross number, the 1.7.
Ric Prentiss:
Okay. So the 1.7 we compared with the 2.0 gross in 2019.
Dan Schlanger:
Yes.
Ric Prentiss:
And then following on Dave's question on page 18 of the supplement, the one thing we noticed was - I know you don't like to talk specific but the numbers that are out there that I think T-Mobile 2022 annual rent, cash payments at renewal went from 560 to 510 in 2022. Is that part of what we're seeing that as some of that renewal timeframe got extended out beyond 2022?
Dan Schlanger:
Ric I don't want to tie components of what we've given together but you're correctly reading the supplement to see that the term for components of revenues that were in earlier periods are getting pushed out to later dates. I would be careful about drawing too many connections between the numbers. But as you read the supplement on the face of the supplement you're accurate that term has been extended.
Ric Prentiss:
And the average life I think did come down for Sprint from seven years to six years, all the other guys stayed at their previous number is that just that we've rolled off another year and if somebody stays at five years or six years that there's been some extension? I'm just trying to think how should we read the supplement kind of year-to-year and what happens to the remaining life?
Jay Brown:
Yes, I think the way you described it is a good way to think about as we've just crossed over the year. And so depending on what the terms of given contracts are absent activity on a site and you're going to see those come closer to zero. And to the extent that there is activity or new leasing activity it's going to move the book out towards the right.
Dan Schlanger:
The only thing I would mention Ric is that maybe to clarify the point you made is because they're whole numbers, there's rounding there too. So, the fact that one stays at five from one period to the next period it doesn't mean that we extended it. It just means that it hadn't crossed over from a rounding perspective.
Ric Prentiss:
Makes sense. And we haven't heard any comments from you guys on DISH, but it does feel like other people are starting to see DISH show up. Has that been helping the benefits? Have you seen some movement from DISH on putting their narrowband IoT network out there?
Jay Brown:
As you know we don't like to comment specifically on individual customers. I would tell you outside of the Big 4 that there is spectrum that's being deployed for a number of different uses and that is helping our revenue growth results and we think there's opportunity for more of that in the future. The majority of the revenue growth that we see both on towers and small cells is really being driven by the Big 4 operators. But beyond that the infrastructure is useful for anyone who wants to deploy a wireless network and we're seeing demand from a number of customers outside of the Big 4.
Operator:
We will now take our next question from Brett Feldman from Goodman Sachs. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
Brett Feldman:
Thanks for taking the question. You were talking about the increasing pace of small cell no deployment going from 10,000 to 15,000 up to 20,000. And what we've seen in the past is that as you've ramped up your capacity to deploy small cells, there has been some increase in your operating expenses. I was hoping maybe you could just explain that dynamic to us. Are you at a point right now where there's some type of a linear relationship, meaning if you'll increase your deployment pace by 1,000 nodes or so, there's going to be a certain amount of increase in your expense? Are you beginning to hit a point where there's an increasing degree of operating leverage within the business that as you scale your growth, you may be start to see more conversion of that revenue towards the bottom-line?
Jay Brown:
Yes, Brett I would say based on what we have in the backlog currently that we're working on both for 2019 and the work that we're already beginning on nodes that will go on air in 2020 and beyond, we think that our operating structure as is currently situated is sufficient to manage that growth. To the extent that the pipeline growth even larger or we're trying to put on air more than - as I mentioned in my comments, trying to get on air somewhere between 10,000 and 15,000 nodes in 2019. If we were to meaningfully raise that number beyond that, then we'd have to come back and talk about what we think the cost structure is appropriate. If it were to get to that things that would matter in that analysis is how many new markets are we having to go towards. To the extent that the increase with end markets that we exist in, it might have less of an impact towards rising cost. If we see the opportunity expanding beyond existing markets, then that would have a different calculus in terms of thinking about operating expenses. But I think the right way to look at it now is for the pipeline that we have currently contracted, we think the operating expenses are a stable level of activity to handle that level of demand.
Brett Feldman:
You mind if I ask a quick follow-up. As we think about the bottleneck in your ability to deploy at any given pace, what would you say it is? Is it the absolute level of demand for small cell deployments? Is it your own capacity to meet that demand? Or is it external factors like the zoning process?
Dan Schlanger:
Well, in terms of timing, obviously, as we talk about the timeline to deploy this 18 months to 24 months to get them deployed we could - if we were to see an increase in the amount of nodes that we're contracting today, we'd be two years away from actually benefiting from the revenue associated with that. So in terms of financial results, I think the biggest bottleneck I would point to is the amount of time it takes to get these deployed. The regulatory hurdles to get there are significant and the FCC has obviously helped us through their recent order and it gives some clarity around what the nature of the deployment should good look like and it gets us to the path towards working with communities in order to get something in place. But nonetheless, the hurdles are there and the timeline is significant. So that's probably the biggest bottleneck. Obviously, we think based on everything that we know and what we're seeing around 5G, we think the opportunities for small cells is very likely to increase over time. And so to the extent that the overall demand for small cells increase that is certainly a gating item currently in terms of what the cap on what our opportunity is. And over time we think the opportunity is going to grow. But specific to financial results, it would be the timeline currently that it takes between when it's contracted and when we can get it on air.
Jay Brown:
And the only thing I would add to that Brett, I don't think it's our internal capability or capacity that is a bottleneck at all. We've been able to scale, as Jay was talking about in an answer the first question you asked, from 5,000 nodes or so a few years ago to 10,000 to 15,000 nodes now do you think we can continue to scale. It's really the combination of how big that demand will be ultimately in the time it takes to get there.
Operator:
We will now take our next question from Jon Atkin from RBC. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
Jon Atkin:
So I was interested the natural disaster reference what specifically were you referring to? And is there any sort of continued impact into 1Q?
Jay Brown:
We don't expect there will be any flow-through to Q1. Specifically, what we're referring to was Hurricane Michael in Puerto Rico and then the significant fire that happened in Southern California.
Jon Atkin:
And then during the script you mentioned the word latency. So that made me think about Vapor IO. I'm wondering if you could kind of provide any update operationally and potentially financially what we can kind of expect over the next year or so.
Jay Brown:
We're continuing to do some work on edge computing. As the networks get designed and traffic increases to my comments around, where traffic is increasing on mobile networks, we continue to believe that some of the traffic in order to get to the latency required for Internet-of-Things, some portion of the network is going to have to be designed where information is kept at the very edge of the network, some for cost purposes, but also for reduction in latency. And we believe that it makes a lot of sense for a meaningful portion of that edge compute to be put in places where there are existing macro sites connected to small cells. So we're continuing to do a number of trials there. But it's still very early and you shouldn't expect to see any impact to our financial results certainly not in 2019 and the outlook that we've given from the work that we're doing there. But long-term, it could be an opportunity. It may result in us having another use for leasing our sites whether it's the ground or space on the towers related to edge compute.
Jon Atkin:
And then finally, I was wondering, if you could comment on the organic growth rate within fiber exclusive of small cells, so enterprise fiber essentially?
Dan Schlanger:
What we're looking at is about mid-single-digit growth rate on the revenue basis for the fiber solutions business exclusive of small cells. Small cells growth we think is going to be closer to 20% range and that's comprised in the fiber solutions business. That's net of high-single digits of churn. So the overall growth we think we'll get there is around 5%.
Operator:
We will now take our next question Colby Synesael from Cowen & Co. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
Colby Synesael:
You've historically talked about expanding the number of markets where you see the small cell opportunity. I was wondering if you can give us color on what that looks like today and how many of those markets do you have fiber in at this point versus you'll need to get there? And those markets that you don't have fiber, is it about organically building or is it more like that you'd do those tuck-ins that you described? And then secondly, when would you expect to see massive MIMO type of equipment start to get put up on towers? Based on the conversations that you're having with your customers, is that something that you're starting to happen in 2019 in a material way or is that still out there? Thanks.
Jay Brown:
Yes, Colby to your first question the vast majority of the spend by the wireless operators for small cells continues to be in the top 30 markets in the U.S. so basically the NFL cities. And we have fiber plant in many if not all of those markets now or we're in the process of constructing it. To the extent that the expansion goes beyond those top 30 markets, which we're doing some of that, but it's not a meaningful amount of capital or frankly a meaningful amount of small cells yet, so that's where the opportunity is currently. And that would stands for both the pipeline of nodes that we're deploying and we'll put on air in 2019 as well as our contracted backlog at this point is mostly focused on those top 30 markets. As I mentioned earlier, my comments around the M&A I intended those to be more broad than just the markets that we're currently working in. As we look at markets even beyond the top 30, we don't see acquisitions as a likely outcome for any meaningful amount of the fiber that we may want to own. We think it's more likely that we're going to end up having to build it. And that's a result of us assessing the type of fiber that exists in the market. We just don't see the dense high-capacity urban fiber in markets whether we're talking about top 30 or beyond the top 30 that are likely targets of any meaningful size to us, we think we're much more likely to be more organically building that fiber. On your second question around MIMO and tenants, we are seeing some of that, but I don't know that that's - frankly that relevant ultimately to our investment story. As carriers deploy equipment on the small cells and on towers in order to deploy network and manage both their spectrum position and capacity needs. They do a number of different things with the antennas in order to meet that. And in order to design the network, there are a lot of demographic characteristics that are going to fall into that analysis. The relevance for us is much more around - is there need for it and then how are they designing the network. We are seeing some of the massive MIMO antennas being deployed, but I don't know that that's really a meaningful component of our investment story. I would look much more at just the overall activity and the deployment of network and the carriers will make different choices around how they deploy that network depending on the demographics.
Colby Synesael:
I think for the lower band spectrum, massive MIMO will require significant pieces of equipment. Some people will say like the size of a small dorm room type or refrigerator. And as a result of that just considering the size of that there's a viewpoint that that could by itself be a material driver to growth for the tower operators when that happens. I guess your point is that we shouldn't isolate that as a material revenue opportunity is that what I'm hearing?
Jay Brown:
Exactly, because they could solve the same thing by using more sites or different types of equipment depending on what spectrum bands they use and how they choose to do it. So just in isolation, I wouldn't necessarily assume that would be a large revenue driver for us.
Operator:
We will now take our next question from Matthew Niknam from Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
Matthew Niknam:
Thank you for taking the question. It's on light towers. So I guess it's about a year now or over a year since you closed that deal. Can you just update us on some of the revenue synergies you are talking about for both CCI's existing enterprise and fiber assets to leverage the Lightower network and then obviously your ability to add new small cell revenue on that existing fiber? And then on the cost side, I know there wasn't much that you'd outlined in the way of cost synergies. But is there anything to think about now that you've fully integrated the asset on a go-forward basis having multiple fiber assets under CCI's ownership? Thanks.
Jay Brown:
Sure. When you're into the Lightower acquisition things have gone basically as we expected. So we've been pleased with how things have gone the first year into ownership. We, as part of the acquisition have the benefit of attracting about 900 employees that came with it and they have been terrific, very seasoned, great skills and haven't done a good job continue to run that business and have been an integral part of the integration of the other fiber assets that we had acquired previously. I'm pleased today that we've effectively completed almost all of the integration activities and have everything on a common system. So excited about what's that going to mean for us with regards to revenue synergies. When we announced that transaction and as we look today, there are a number of nodes that are going on existing fiber and some of the fiber that we acquired we were down the road on already contracting the nodes. And so we're using the fiber that we acquired to handle some of those nodes. And given the markets that we acquired mostly in the Northeast Lightower and in the two Texas markets that regard with FiberNet, there is a significant amount of opportunity in those markets for small cells. So we're really early days in terms of the deployment of small cells against the fiber that we've owned, but the pieces is playing out as we would've expected 12 months into it.
Dan Schlanger:
From the second part of the cost synergy standpoint, what we're talking about is what we meant we thought - as Jay said, we breakup 900 people and knew what they're doing and we've kept - we've kept the vast majority of those people and we're not looking to try to bring out cost synergies to try to make sure we're operating that any differently than it has been operated in the past. What we're looking to is trying to expand our market.
Operator:
We will now take our next question from Nick Del Deo from MoffettNathanson. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
Nick Del Deo:
I realized that it might be a challenging question to answer just given the very nature of fiber. But can you try to give us a sense for what share of your purpose-built small cell systems are also generating some sort of revenue from non-small cell source like an enterprise customer or perhaps what share do you sell a few years after they were constructed?
Jay Brown:
I don't know that I have a number of the top off my head Nick, to be able to answer that - answer that question for you. As we look at individual markets which is - we tend more to look at the business on as we study how have we done in particular markets when we talked about some of these case studies in the past, we'll do a deep dive in a market like Chicago or New York and look at what was our initial investment, how much fiber did we own initially, what was the nature of that initial fiber relationship whether it was K-12 or enterprise or small cells and then watch it develop over time. And as we look at individual case studies what we've seen if the thesis has played out as we expected. When you own fiber in areas where there's a dense population of people those are the places where the wireless networks are challenged and they need to add capacity and so we see those fiber networks. Whether we start with small cells or we start with a fiber solutions application, we see overtime it being an asset that's shared and we find that in areas that are dense, urban, downtown business districts. And then we find it in more suburban applications. In both situations, the fiber ends up, where the people are, the fiber ends up being needed for business enterprise hospitals universities, schools and being necessary for wireless.
Dan Schlanger:
And one of the good things about the strategy we've deployed is - and why we're so interested in the fiber we're interested is having lots of strengths high-capacity fiber and lots of density really plays into all of that. So having the ability to serve all those markets at the same time with the level of service that isn't necessarily available in the market because the fiber is so unique just that the capacity we have is unique through most - through a lot of that positions us really well to take advantage of all the markets we can serve.
Nick Del Deo:
And then Jay in your prepared remarks you talked about expected wireless traffic growth and how that drives your outlook for your wireless infrastructure and historically with towers exclusive nature of the assets in the physics of wireless deliveries meant just to be of pretty strong linkage between attractive growth and monetization rates, when I think about fiber solutions that relationship doesn't seem quite as clear given ongoing improvements in Medtronics and there being more competition. So with respect to fiber solutions, specifically, how do you think about the long-term relationship between traffic growth and revenue growth?
Jay Brown:
Nick appreciate that question because I think there is a sense in which that question drives towards the heart of our strategy of all the IP traffic that's out there, Internet traffic that's out there, is not the target of our business. And so there's a significant portion of that traffic that we don't serve today, a significant portion of it that we wouldn't ever aim to serve. The portion of the market that we're aiming for is large enterprises, universities, hospitals, in some cases government systems that are large users most of the time a few multi-location businesses. And that's really our only - that's our target for providing fiber solutions where really all we're providing is the pipe and the pipe happens to run along places where because of the demographics of an area, there's going to be a lot of users in mobile technology there and constraints on the network and therefore that fiber is going to be needed for small cells. So I think overall traffic is indicative to some degree of the opportunity that's in front of us with those large enterprises, hospitals, universities, et cetera. But I would not try to take our fiber solutions business and draw a direct connection to overall growth in Internet or IP traffic over time as a direct correlation to what our revenue growth in our fiber solutions business is. I do think of the mobile side, which is why I made the comments that I made, I do think that on the mobile side that that traffic is a good indication of the necessity of improvement in network particularly with regard to the uses of that network. As latency comes down, not only is it latency a concern, but reliability has to go up pretty meaningfully from where the wireless networks start today in order for the devices that are likely to be used in the 5G environment to actually be effective and be able to be relied upon for industrial uses. And that increase and the reliability of the networks and the reduction in latency is going to mean a pretty significant increase we believe in a number of places where there's deployment of wireless spectrum both on towers and small cells. So to wireless traffic, I think, it's a pretty good indication on the total traffic side or wire side probably not the best indication for our business.
Operator:
We will now take our next question from Michael Rollins from Citi. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
Adam Ilkowitz:
This is Adam Ilkowitz on for Mike. I was curious about the site leasing growth in the fourth quarter came in a little bit above what we're expecting. I was wondering if you can give a reason for what drove that, and maybe why didn't flow through the 2019 guidance that wasn't updated for organic? Thank you.
Dan Schlanger:
The driver of the most of that incremental activity was actually our small cell business where we saw the activity levels a little higher than what we expected going into the quarter. And the reason it didn't roll through is because we've given ranges around what we think 2019 will be and this is all within those ranges. So we don't anticipate updating guidance every time something moves by a couple million dollars. We're trying to make it where the range is incorporate what we think is a reasonable expectation of the potential outcomes and this falls within that range. So we're not going to update it for that.
Adam Ilkowitz:
And then just a follow-on. The small cell business and the tower business given that a lot of customers are overlapping, can you talk about what type of relationships those two businesses are having in the sales process? Are you signing joint contracts for both products? Or are your customers continuing to think about those products in areas that are addressing separately? Thank you.
Jay Brown:
On the carrier side, the individuals who are deploying network would be handling both towers and small cells. So we don't see separate groups that we're having those conversations with. They're very different conversations though in terms of as we think about value. On the small cells side, we're deploying a significant amount of capital generally speaking about 75% of the activity that we have or thereabouts is going to be related to anchor activity and the balance would be colo. So in that 70%, 70%, 75% of the total activity being anchor activity we're deploying significant amount of capital in order to build those systems. So the conversation on that front is around the yield and return on that invested capital. As we've talked about before, we would expect in order to deploy capital somewhere in the neighborhood of a 6% to 7% initial yield and then ultimately we get to a return to justify the investments and an acceptable return ultimately to the shareholder of adding multiple tenants beyond that. So our evaluation on the small cells side comes down to what's the investment required and what do we think the potential return is based on location and other things. On the tower side, it's a different conversation. It's around what assets exist in the market that will need or solve the needs that they have. And there because of the agreements that we would have with all the customers, we're not really doing an analysis around what the return on a per-dollar basis is for the investment of capital because the capital investment has already been made. So it's a conversation that happens with the same people, but it's a very different conversation depending on the type of product that they're trying to buy from us.
Operator:
We will now take our next question from Walter Piecyk from BTIG. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
Walter Piecyk:
I just want to ask obviously again about the prepaid my favorite question. It looks like for the year, you were guiding to 35 to 40. It was at the minimum of the high end maybe over. Can you talk about what were the issues there? And then for next year, you had talked about doing 35 to 40. What's on top of this year? What's the increase? Is the baseline for that is at 3.27 million that's reported? Or is the baseline the 2.92 million or maybe lower that excludes the acquired prepaid for the quarter? Thanks.
Dan Schlanger:
Sure, Walt. So first, yes the prepaid came in a little bit above our 35 to 40 guidance. Small cell activity was a little higher and so we got a little bit more prepaid activity - prepaid rent proceed in that case for 2018. Going forward, I think what we said is somewhere in the 30 to 40 range in 2019. That would be over and above the 3.27 million you talked about so total all in. That's the number I think you're looking for.
Walter Piecyk:
And then just one other question, as far as the churn makeup, when you look at the guided churn, assuming the tower churn is in this kind of whatever 2% to 2.1% ballpark, right? And then so for the fiber business, what's left over is if you get 25% of your business is small cells and that's whatever let's say 1.5% churn that's probably high given its early stage. To get to your the guided churn or disconnect stuff that's implying like a 10% churn number for the enterprise business. Am I thinking about that properly in terms of kind of breakdown of the churn?
Jay Brown:
Yes. I think you're close. I think on the tower side both for 2019 and years beyond, we think the churn rates are around 1% to 2%. And as you mentioned, we're going to be at the high end of that for 2019. Our working assumption for long term is that small cells are going to have about the same level of churn. Fair to say that maybe in the short term here we don't see quite that level, but in that same 1% to 2% range. And then on the fiber side, we think it's high single digits. So we've talked about the fact that we think it's about 9% in 2019 in the outlook that we gave.
Walter Piecyk:
So your base is pretty conservative then because the numbers - if you put 9% in there then now that would kind of to get to the low-end of the range. So I guess that the guidance in the churn sounds like it's fairly conservative then, unless - because there is no exogenous churn events in macro towers I don't think expected in 2019 right?
Jay Brown:
Yes. I think we're probably - we're trying to give ranges, so depending on where you point in the range you squeeze out the other side and - we're just trying to give a range. But I think from modeling purposes I think somewhere in the neighborhood, we think the fiber business is going to run in an around those high-single digits around 9% and then 1% to 2% on tower and small cells.
Walter Piecyk:
Got it. Thank you.
Dan Schlanger:
And Walt, just to clarify on the exogenous tower event. We do think that some of the - about half of the churn, we're going to see in towers is because of the acquired network churn that's coming through. So, I'm not sure you call that exogenous or not, but we didn't want to call it out. It's something that we see is we don't think it repeats forever.
Walter Piecyk:
I may have to look that word up from the dictionary. You just used it. I'm not even sure what that means. But I appreciate the answers. Thank you.
Operator:
We will now take our next question from Amy Young from Macquarie. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
Amy Young:
I guess I'm just following up on our previous question, but I think your past view was that small cells return will be similar to macro sites at scale. I guess where do you think you are? And how far along are you to reach scale? And has there been anything in the past year that's changed your view on that? Thank you.
Jay Brown:
Amy, we're really early days on small cells. So our initial yields on small cells as I mentioned are around 6% to 7%. If you look at our entire Fiber segment with small cells and the fiber solutions, we're getting about an 8% yield on the invested capital around fiber. So we've taken both the acquisitions that we've done as well as the builds and we've grown - we've already grown the yield on the $13 billion that we spent there above kind of our initial entry point. On the tower basis, if we roll the clock back to a couple of decades ago when we first started acquiring towers, we acquired a significant number of our towers at about a 3% yield and have grown that yield over the last two decades. If you look at this on a micro sense and we look at what's the return on tower versus return on a small cell system they're very comparable. As we add additional tenants to small cells, we see the returns and the margin expand at about the same pace, if not maybe slightly faster on the margin side than what we saw in the tower business. And at the end of the day, we see returns with pretty reasonable assumptions around what we think lease-up is, somewhere in the neighborhood of about the equivalent of little over two tenants per tower. On a tower basis, if we were to do that same math on the small cell side, we would get two returns that are well above a blended cost of debt and equity and provide substantial return as we think about growing the dividends per share over the long-term. Last thing, I'll mention about this is, the key characteristic around what drives that return is what is the lease-up associated with the asset. So you enter the asset with an anchor tenant and have a going-in yield from a tower aside. Historically, it's been about 3%. Small cells it's about double that at 6% to 7%. But then what's the co-location model look like and at what rate do we see co-location and that drives the return long-term. Our experience has been thus far that the pace of leasing on existing investments we've seen lease-up that's about twice the pace of what co-location is on the tower has happened over the last decade or so. So we've accelerated the pass towards co-locating and sharing the asset as we've deployed these early systems with the small cells as the second and in some cases third tenant has come along and use that same system. So our thesis in terms of the model is similar to towers is playing out at the same time that we're scaling the business significantly. As I mentioned, I think I mentioned this last quarter in 2019, we think we'll deploy roughly double the number of small cells or double the growth that we had in 2017. So that kind of growth is expanding the overall size of the pie. And as we look at it on a micro sense, the model is playing out, but it's playing out against the scale of assets that's much smaller than the entire size of the investment is today, because it's grown so significantly in terms of our investment and opportunity that when you look at the yields on the total, yes it's headed in the right direction going from initially 6% to 7% to now 8%, 8% plus. But the overall book of that growth and the total return yield is going to take many years just like what it did in towers as we move the base and increase the opportunity.
Amy Young:
And I guess just following up on that, I think we've seen one or two carriers deploy small cells internally. And what do you think is driving that decision? And does that potentially shape your view on what you just said?
Jay Brown:
I think there are - I think all of the carriers are deploying small cells in some form of a self-perform. We certainly don't anticipate that we'll win 100% of the market share just like we've never done that on the towers side either. We think at the moment we're somewhere in the neighborhood of about half of what's getting deployed that we're winning. And I think the fact that the carriers are self-performing should be a good indication of the fact that it's a good business, and they need small cells. There are certain locations where we're going to choose not to build them, because we don't see the lease-up opportunity there, and therefore we don't see the shared economics for great returns over the long-term. So I think the carriers will continue to self-perform in places where we don't view those to be the best places to invest capital. And just like we saw for a long time on the towers side where carriers built their own towers in places where tower companies or others were not willing to invest the capital in order to build the infrastructure.
Operator:
We will now take our next call from Spencer Kurn from New Street Research. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
Spencer Kurn:
I'm just wondering you've guided to $120 million to $130 million of new leasing revenue on towers in 2019. How does that compare to what you guys saw in the fourth quarter? I'm just trying to gauge whether your guidance assumes any acceleration in activity or is it pretty much an annualization of this past quarter? Thanks.
Dan Schlanger:
Spencer, it's similar to what we saw in the fourth quarter. But as what we're talking about and have talked about what we're excited about is just the level of activity increasing over time and all of our customers being active across our towers business. So we do think that that will continue through 2019.
Spencer Kurn:
And I just have one other question on node density, I think in small cells. I think today you've got around two nodes per mile on average. And sorry it's actually lower than that. But my question is, we've heard of some deals where carriers are signing deals for 10 to 20 nodes per mile. I was just curious, could you talk about the sort of distribution of your small cell node density? Sort of how many markets do you have with node density maybe 10 nodes per mile or five nodes per mile? I'm not sure how you break it out. And then also, are you seeing this set of deals becoming more prevalent in your conversations? Thank you.
Jay Brown:
Yes, Spencer, just to clarify a couple of points. So when we're deploying new fiber and building it for the purpose of small cells, our average is just over two nodes per mile currently as we're deploying. That's how pretty consistent. When you get to the specific examples and we start to look at some case studies, we could show you many examples in dense urban markets where the node count is between six and 10 nodes per mile and we don't think those are by any means isolated examples. We think that over time, we're going to continue to see a density that's significantly beyond what we are currently in terms of small cells per mile. That's well beyond - if we start talking about six to 10 nodes per mile that's well beyond what we're underwriting when we do - when we decide to make these investments. We're closer to underwriting in the neighborhood of about four or little over four nodes per mile in terms of the density. So if ultimately networks get to kind of some of the numbers that you're talking about and I believe there is a case where that could happen that's not in our underwriting case, but we've both seen it in practice and believe depending on the density that ultimately happens and is necessary for the 5G, we could get well beyond what we are underwriting when we make these investments. And time will tell on that front. But as we look at individual case studies and look at some markets some of the early deployments in both center of business districts, as well as some areas of suburbia, we do find examples. As the carriers go out and initially deploy they're deploying somewhere in the neighborhood of two per mile. A second carrier comes along and does a similar deployment and then one of those two original carriers comes back and adds additional nodes to that existing deployment in order to increase the density. So we end up getting lease-up if you will in co-location both from the existing deployment, as well as a secondary deployment that comes back and has additional nodes in order to increase the density. We think over time that's the way this is going to play out.
Operator:
We will now take our next question from Robert Gutman from Guggenheim Partners. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
Robert Gutman:
It seems like almost 80% of CapEx is on the fiber and small cells side. It seems like small cells specifically would be a small portion of that at this point. Can you discuss broadly how it's being spent? Is this on the organic sort of dense fiber builds in markets and markets that you mentioned earlier that you're trying to get to organically? What is the timing of associated revenue generation on that? In other words, is it specifically linked to the backlog of small cells? Or is it just building without specific contracts? That's basically what I'm trying to get at.
Dan Schlanger:
Sure. I think just trying to take a step back and tell you how we think about spending capital. What we're doing is we're spending capital to build the fiber in markets where we see significant demand for small cells and continuing increases in that demand for small cells. So what we're trying to do is take markets where we think it's going to ultimately be very conducive for small cells. And we will only start building in those markets when we have a contract in order to do so. So when we think about what that new capital expenditure - revenue-generating capital expenditure looks like, the majority of it isn't our fiber segment, but the vast majority of that is going in to build small cells systems. Having said that, those small cells systems include fiber that as Jay was pointing out earlier will put us in a position to go after some fiber solutions business that we're really interested in within those markets because it will likely be that the small cell deployment is close to where that fiber solutions business will come as well. But to your specific point on what the revenue timing is, since the vast majority of that is for fiber, I mean, is for small cells, the fiber that support small cells, it's an 18-month to 24-month on average deployment cycle, which means that the capital will come in through the course of that 18 months to 24 months before we see the revenue come in from it. But there's not going to be a case where we're spending capital and hope that someday we'll get revenue on it.
Robert Gutman:
And earlier in the call you mentioned, I think prior to this call you targeted 6,000 to 8,000 deployments in 2018 of small cells nodes. You had also prior mentioned the 35,000 node backlog. I think earlier today you said 20,000 node backlog, but I would assume that's net of the 10,000 to 15,000 you expect to deploy this year. So then conclusion would be the backlog is unchanged? Is that right?
Jay Brown:
Yes. So the short answer is yes, but I just want to make sure we get to all the same points. We have about 65,000 nodes either on air or under development. That number really hasn't changed. And so there hasn't been a significant move in that. We've put around 7,000 nodes on air in 2018. And as Jay mentioned, the ending 2018 backlog was higher than the beginning 2018 backlog and so that we more than replaced the nodes we put on air with new bookings. Looking forward, we think 10,000 to 15,000 nodes we put on air in 2019 and then we have 20,000 or so that will be put on air 2020, in the year 2020 or beyond. So you're right. The short answer is no. The backlog really hasn't changed. We're just trying to get a little more color around the timing and how that looks going forward.
Robert Gutman:
Last small point, could you break out the final leasing by segment sort of in a light as it compares to the guidance that was outstanding in terms of tower of small cells and fiber?
Jay Brown:
Are you asking for 2018?
Robert Gutman:
Yes.
Jay Brown:
So the new leasing activity was around 110 for towers around 60 for small cells and around 45 for fiber solutions.
Operator:
We will now take our last and final question from Phil Cusick from JPMorgan. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
Phil Cusick:
I guess two please if I can. First as we think about those term extensions that drove higher straight-lined revenue it seems like that would be activity beyond regular way. But you've raised straight-line guide nearly every quarter in the last couple of years. Can you give me examples of what this is sort of unexpected activity might be and why it might not happen in a particular quarter?
Jay Brown:
Yes. It's not unexpected activity. It's related to new leases that we think - we understand are coming. It's just the timing of that is sometimes difficult to predict, but it's also the length of the term extension that we get maybe different than what we have in our forecast and that can drive incremental straight-line activity.
Phil Cusick:
Is it fair to say that you come in guiding for sort of the worst case in what those extensions might look like? And then as they come in you just stretch out the straight-line?
Jay Brown:
I wouldn't call it worst-case, but it's hard to predict. And so I think we're probably on the conservative side of that assumption specifically yes.
Phil Cusick:
That helps. Thanks. And then what do you see - any change in the trends in enterprise fiber demand? Any change in bookings or churn pace there? Thanks.
Jay Brown:
We really haven't seen any trends there. As we've now had the business for about a year. I think it is played out roughly in line with what our expectations were going into the business. I think we're getting better at understanding how the business works and how to position ourselves in the market. But I wouldn't point to anything that's changing our long-term view of how that business will perform.
Jay Brown:
Well, thanks, everyone, for joining the call this morning. Obviously, we were thrilled with the outcome in 2018 and excited about the opportunity ahead as we talked about on the call this morning on a number of fronts the increased level of leasing activity around towers and small cells is exciting given what it means not only for calendar year 2019, but also what we think it what it will mean over the long term as the carriers look to deploy beyond 4G and into the 5G world. So thanks for joining us this morning. Look forward to catching up soon.
Executives:
Ben Lowe - VP, Corporate Finance Jay Brown - CEO Dan Schlanger - CFO
Analysts:
Simon Flannery - Morgan Stanley Matthew Niknam - Deutsche Bank David Barden - Bank of America Jonathan Atkin - RBC Markets Colby Synesael - Cowen and Company Ric Prentiss - Raymond James Amir Rozwadowski - Barclays Nick Del Deo - MoffettNathanson Brett Feldman - Goldman Sachs Michael Rollins - Citi Robert Gutman - Guggenheim Securities Spencer Kurn - New Street Research Amy Yong - Macquarie
Operator:
Good day and welcome to the Crown Castle Q3 2018 Earnings Call. Today's conference is being recorded. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Mr. Ben Lowe. Sir, you may begin.
Ben Lowe:
Thank you, Jonathan, and good morning everyone. Thanks for joining us today as we review our third quarter 2018 results. On the call morning are Jay Brown, Crown Castle's Chief Executive Officer; and Dan Schlanger, Crown Castle's Chief Financial Officer. Today the discussion, we have posted supplemental materials in the Investors section of our website at crowncastle.com, which we will refer to throughout the call this morning. This conference call will contain forward-looking statements, which are subject to certain risks, uncertainties and assumptions, and actual results may vary materially from those expected. Information about potential factors which could affect our results is available in the press release and the Risk Factors section of the Company's SEC filings. Our statements are made as of today, October 18, 2018, and we assume no obligations to update any forward-looking statements. In addition, today's call includes discussions of certain non-GAAP financial measures. Tables reconciling these non-GAAP financial measures are available in the Supplemental Information Package in the Investors section of the Company's website at crowncastle.com. So with that, I'll turn it over to Jay.
Jay Brown:
Thanks, Ben, and good morning everyone. Thanks for joining us on the call this morning. Over the last two decades, we have established an unmatched portfolio of more than 40,000 towers and 65,000 route miles of high capacity fiber in the top U.S. markets where we see the greatest long-term growth. We continue to believe the U.S. represents the best market in the world to earn shared communication infrastructure, and we believe our ability to offer a combination of towers, small cells, and fiber solutions to our customers provides a valuable differentiation in the market. On this call, I wanted to highlight two important things. First, our strategy to invest in towers and small cells and fiber has positioned us to capture accelerating leasing activity which is driving dividend growth. And secondly, we continue to see tremendous opportunities to invest in new assets that we believe will generate future growth. On the first point, executing on our strategy is leading to consistent dividend growth. As we increased our annualized common stock dividend by 7% to $4.50 per share, in line with what we believe our AFFO per share growth will be in 2019. The growth in 2019 is based in part on our pipeline of contract with new business which has increased in each quarter this year and is driving the accelerating new leasing growth we expect to see in 2019. As shown in our outlook, we expect the positive trends to continue as we expect towers to contribute approximately $125 million to new leasing growth in 2019, which is up nearly 15% from the $110 million we expect to see in 2018. Likewise, we expect small cells to generate new leasing activity of approximately $75 million in 2019, which is more than 35% higher than the $55 million we expect in 2018. In addition to the expected acceleration and new leasing activity, our pipeline of contracted small cell nodes to be constructed over the next 18 to 24 months continues to grow, and currently stands at an all-time high of approximately 35,000, which is up 40% from this time last year. This increased activity is a result of all four of our large customers investing in their networks through towers and small cells to both keep pace with the current 4G demand environment and position their networks for 5G. Carriers in the U.S. are expected to lead the way and be among the first operators in the world to deploy commercial 5G services with all for the national carriers working to rollout 5G services currently. Underscoring how attractive the U.S. market is for communications infrastructure ownership, Ericsson estimates that 5G will account for nearly 50% of mobile subscriptions in North America by 2023, compared to just 20% globally. According to industry estimates, mobile data traffic in North America will increased by 40% per year between now and 2023, resulting in a staggering eight fold increase in the volume of data writing across mobile network. This growth and data will require substantial densification of wireless networks. And we believe Crown Castle is in a great position at the center of these megatrends as our portfolio of well located towers and dense high capacity metro fiber assets remain the most cost effective option for our customers deployment needs. In the near-term since 2014 and inclusive of the dividend increased we announced yesterday, we have grown our dividend by a compounded annual growth rate of approximately 8%, fueled by these underlying industries trends and the resulting revenue growth. Turning to the second thing, we’re excited about the significant investments we are making to build new assets that we expect will drive long-term growth in cash flows and dividend per share. We believe we are in the very early innings of a huge opportunity with high capacity dense metro fiber, which has become critical for wireless and wired networks. Over the last several years, we have built and acquired an unmatched portfolio of more than 65,000 route mile of high capacity fiber in the top market where we see the greatest long-term demand from multiple customers. Consistent with our expectations, we continue to see very attractive initial returns on our fiber investments with initial yields of 6% to 7% for the first tenants. Over the long-term and similar to towers, we expect the returns on these investments to increase as we add more customers to our fiber assets, which will drive future dividend growth. We are using the same playbook we used with towers by sharing the asset across multiple tenants to generate attractive returns and it’s playing out better than we expected. Looking back five years ago, we had an aspirational goal to be able to deploy about $10,000 nodes per year. At the time, we were adding 1,000 nodes per year, so this was seen as a significant increase and capability. Looking ahead to 2019, we expect to deploy between 10,000 and 15,000 nodes exceeding our aspirational goal. Our team has done a terrific job building capability and expertise that can deliver for our customers at significant scale. Further proving out the model, we are seeing demand from multiple tenants on the same fiber asset with a meaningful portion of the nodes we expect to deploy in 2019 collocating on existing small cell networks. By collocating additional tenants on existing fiber networks we are able to generate high incremental margins that we expect will grow the yield into the mid to high-teens over time. With our leading capabilities in fiber solutions, we have the ability to increase the yield on our fiber investment by growing cash flows from both small cells and fiber solutions customers that need access to the same high capacity in dense metro fiber assets, while the current utilization of our fiber portfolio is similar to that of a single tenant tower our current 8% yield is more than double what we saw when our towers had only one tenant. All of this increases our conviction to continue investing in new fiber assets that we believe will expand our long-term opportunity. So in closing, our strategy to invest in towers, small cells and fiber has positioned us to capture this accelerating leasing activity which is in turn driving dividend growth. And we continue to see tremendous opportunities to invest in new assets that will further this strategy over the long-term. With our unmatched portfolio of assets and operating capability, I believe Crown Castle is best positioned to capture these immense long-term opportunities while consistently returning capital to shareholders through a high quality dividend that we expect to grow 7% to 8% annually. And with that, I'll turn the call over to Dan.
Dan Schlanger:
Thanks, Jay. Good morning, everyone. As Jay mentioned we had another great quarter results in the third quarter. That sets us up to finish 2018 on a strong note and provides a solid foundation for 2019. As you can see in the initial 2019 outlook we provided, we expect to grow AFFO per share by 7% which led us to increase our dividend by the same amount. The third quarter results in 2019 outlook reflect the strength of our business model and our ability to leverage our leadership position in the U.S. across towers, small cells, and fiber solutions to generate continued growth. Starting with Slide 4 the presentation on our website, in the third quarter, we exceeded the high end of guidance for site rental revenues and AFFO while adjusted EBITDA exceeded the midpoint of the range. When compared to our prior third quarter outlook, site rental revenues and adjusted EBITDA benefited from approximately $3 million of additional straight lines revenues which were primarily a result of term expenses associated with leasing activity as well as some additional contribution from our Lightower acquisition. These benefits were partially offset by approximately $2 million of higher straight line expenses. Further, while AFFO did not benefit from the straight line revenues, it did benefit from approximately $3 million of lower sustaining capital expenditures which are now expected to occur during the fourth quarter. Adjusting for the impact of these items, third quarter site rental revenues, adjusted EBITDA and AFFO each exceeded the midpoint of our prior outlook. Beginning in 2019 and consistent with our intention to align our public communications with the long-term approach we take internally in managing the business, we will no longer provide guidance for quarterly results. Turning to the balance sheet, we finished the quarter at a 5.1 times debt-to-EBITDA ratio and intend to finance the business with five terms of leverage longer term as we remain committed maintaining our investment grade credit profile. To that point, we were excited that earlier this week Fitch upgraded our senior unsecured credit rating to BBB flat, which we believe is a reflection of the stability and attractiveness of our business model. With the increasing interest rates we have seen over the recent past, we are pleased with the structure of our balance sheet with a weighted average duration of our debt of greater than six years and only 20% floating rate debt. Now moving to Slide 5. At the midpoints, we increased our full year 2018 outlook for site rental revenues and adjusted EBITDA, while leaving the outlook for AFFO unchanged. The increase to site rental revenues reflects the outperformance from the third quarter that resulted from a combination of better than expected performance from our Lightower acquisition and the additional straight line revenues I mentioned earlier. Meanwhile, the increase to adjusted EBITDA reflects the higher than expected site rental revenue offset by some additional expenses, while AFFO remains unchanged as the higher straight line revenue does not contribute to AFFO. Staying on Slide 5, our full year 2019 outlook highlights include 7% expected growth in AFFO per share from $5.49 in 2018 to $5.85 in 2019 at the midpoint of outlook and a 7% increase to our annualized dividends per share from $4.20 to $4.50. This dividend increase is supported by the expected acceleration and leasing activity in 2019 and demonstrates our ability to deliver on our growth targets while investing in new assets that will drive future growth. Over the long-term, we expect the returns on our small cell and fiber investments will increase as we lease the assets to additional customers, which we would expect will significantly add a future dividend per share. Moving now to Slide 6. At the mid points, we expect approximately $220 million of growth in site rental revenues from 2018 to 2019 consisting of $280 million of organic contribution to site rental revenues offset by change in straight line revenues of approximately $60 million. Organic growth in 2019, distributed by new leasing activity of $365 million at the midpoint, up from $205 million at the midpoint point in 2018 representing an acceleration in activity levels. As Jay mentioned earlier, at the midpoints of outlook, new leasing activity in 2019 is expected to be a $125 million for towers, up from a $110 million in 2018, $75 million for small cells, up from $55 million in 2018 and $165 million for fiber solutions up from $45 million in 2018. In addition to new leasing activity, we expect annual contracted tenant escalations to contribute approximately $90 million in growth at the midpoint in 2019. Growth from new leasing activity in tenant escalations is offset by approximately $175 million of expected non-renewals, resulting in organic growth of $280 million at the midpoint. Expected non-renewals in 2019 consist of non-renewals on our tower business at the high end of our historical 1% to 2% range, over half of which is related to wireless carrier consolidations occurred earlier this decade, and also includes less than 1% non-renewals on our small cell business and high single digit non-renewals on our fiber solutions business. The approximately $280 million organic contribution to site rental revenues represents approximately 6% growth year-over-year that consists of approximately 5% growth from towers, approximately 20% growth from small cells, and approximately 5% growth from fiber solutions. Turning to Slide 7, I'd like to walk through the expected AFFO growth from 2018 to 2019 of approximately $160 million at the midpoint of outlook. Starting on the left organic contribution to site rental revenue growth of $280 million at the midpoint is partially offset by an approximately $80 million increase in cash expenses. This increase in expenses is a combination of the typical cost escalations in our business and the direct expenses associated with accelerating new leasing activity. Moving to the right, we expect the contributions from network services to increase by approximately $25 million from 2018 levels consistent with the higher expected leasing activity in the towers business. And finally, we expect AFFO to be negatively affected by approximately $70 million of other items, in this case, increased financing costs. The approximately $70 million increase in financing costs from 2018 to 2019 is inclusive of approximately $25 million related to higher expected average floating interest rates in 2019 when compared to average interest rates in 2018, as well as $45 million related to the funding of our discretionary capital expenditures. Similar to 2018, we expect our overall capital expenditures in 2019 to be around $2 billion or around $1.5 billion net of capital contributions from our customers. Summarizing our results, we expect to deliver 7% growth in AFFO per share in 2019 driven by accelerating leasing activity offset by the higher financing costs I just mentioned. In closing, our unmatched portfolio of shared communications infrastructure assets uniquely positions us to return capital to our shareholders in the form of a high quality dividend and to meet our goal of growing that dividend by 7% to 8% annually, while allowing us to make investments in new assets we believe will extend our long-term growth opportunity. With that, Jonathan, I'd like to open the call to questions.
Operator:
Thank you. [Operator Instructions] We'll take our first question from Simon Flannery with Morgan Stanley.
Simon Flannery:
Just on the quarterly guidance. Can you give us any color about the 2019? Is there any pacing first half versus second half or anything that's unusual through the year? And then, you were talking about the long term drivers, the FCC has been moving to get a lot of spectrum out in the marketplace. Can you just give us a little bit of color on the CBRS and the C-band? Do you think that's more for the small cell portfolio or for the macro tower portfolio? Or do you think you'll see leasing on both of those over the next few years?
Dan Schlanger:
Hey, Simon, good morning. I'll take the first one and hand it over to Jay for the second one. The quarterly pacing, there's nothing really to point out other than I would say that some of that small cell pacing the 10,000 to 15,000 nodes we're talking about is a little back end loaded, but there's nothing that would be any different than the general pacing we typically see through the business and what we're seeing to 2018 in terms of when we expect to turn on revenue either on a tower site small cell side or services.
Jay Brown:
Thanks for the question Simon. I would tell you if you look back over the last couple of decades of winter, the days have been the best for the infrastructure business around now towers and fiber and the deployment of small cells. Anytime there's new spectrum coming to market and you have a commitment from the owners or the operators that hold that spectrum, you see increased leasing activity. So, as the FCC is looking at, how do we compete globally with regards to 5G, I think it’s a combination of network densification and the deployment of additional spectrum. Some of that spectrum is lying fallow currently in hands of operators that haven’t deployed it. And some of the spectrum that the FCC is looking at, trying to figure out a way to get it deployed and into the hands of operators. I think both of those are supportive of kind of our long-term expectation of growth and point to a longer runway of growth. Specifically on CBRS and C band, I think we will see activity on both macro sites and small cell. But I would tend to believe, we’ll probably see a bigger impact around small cells than we will at macro sites, but I think it will contribute to long-term activity on both assets.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] We’ll take our next question from Matthew Niknam from Deutsche Bank.
Matthew Niknam:
Just one on rising rates. How does the environment change the way you think about discretionary investments in fiber? I think you’ve talked about investing more particularly organically. So I’m just wondering, how you sort of -- how the view evolves in a rising rate environment. And then I guess more broadly, you think the business can continue to grow sort of this longer term 7% to 8% range given the move in rates?
Dan Schlanger:
The amount of increase in rates we’ve seen recently doesn’t impact the way we think about discretionary investments at all just because the returns we see on those investments so far exceed our cost of capital, even with those increasing rates. That it’s not going to have any impact on the long-term benefit that we think those investments will generate for us and our shareholders over time. And as Jay pointed out in his discussion, we’re really excited about all the trends we see, the acceleration in the small cell business, the continued performance in our fiber business. So we think that those investments continue to look really good even in this rate environment and would be -- it would take a pretty substantial increase from here that would change any of that thought from us. So it’s not anything that we would really anticipate to happen. That doesn’t mean that it wouldn't impact any single period like it did in 2019 for us. But the long-term investment profile we feel really good about and excited about. And as far as can the business continue to accelerate? I think the answer is yes. As we pointed out, small cell business is around 20% growth year-over-year, that’s in line with what we grew -- what we expect to grow in 2018. The fiber solutions business is around 5% growth. We think that’s -- we’ve talked about mid single digit growth for a while now. We think that will continue. So, we think that the position of our assets, the high capacity dense metro assets we put together really gives us a great way to attack multiple markets with the same assets, and we think it will continue to generate growth for us in the long-term.
Matthew Niknam:
If I could just follow up, you also mentioned a meaningful portion of the nodes that are coming online in 2019 are going to be collocating. Can you maybe give us a little bit of a ballpark estimate in terms of how that compares to the 70-30 set you’ve given us in the past?
Dan Schlanger:
It’s really not a lot different. It’s just that the total amount is a lot higher, because we have such a larger pipeline. We’re still around 70-30 it’s just the total amount of collocation has gone up, which has been very encouraging to us. Because it means that, as we put new assets in place to build small cells, we're then coming back and getting collocation on those new assets. But we're still investing a lot in building out markets which we anticipate will do for a while now just given how early we are in this investment cycle.
Jay Brown:
Matthew, I think one of the way to frame it is, if you were to go back two or three years and look at the number of collocations that we're doing now, it would exceed the total number of nodes we were deploying three to four years ago. So, we've seen significant growth in that collocation which is, both Dan and I have comment. We've seen not only terrific returns, but we've also seen the model prove out which has given us more conviction around continuing to invest in the assets and grow the opportunity as we follow the wireless carriers and their deployment of 5G across markets.
Operator:
Thank you. We'll take our next question from David Barden with Bank of America.
David Barden:
I guess just a couple on the kind of inputs to the AFFO guide. I think the $25 million related to the variable cost funding, Dan implies about a 75% -- sorry, 75 basis point rate hike into 2019. I just wanted to verify that. It sounds pretty consistent with kind of consensus expectations for rising rates. And then the second one was related to the $45 million funding costs related to discretionary CapEx. I guess, the question here is kind of, what is the expectation or is that a 1.5 billion being raised in the middle of the year? Is that a 1 billion being raised at the beginning of the year? Some color on that would help us kind of understand the shape of that.
Dan Schlanger:
Sure. Thanks for question David. On the first question, what we baked into our 2019 guidance is forward curve out as of when we put it together, which is very recently. So, it's in the ballpark of what you're talking about, but it's just a forward curve of future interest rates through 2019 which we think will add about $25 million to our interest expense year-on-year. On the $45 million funding, there are lot of assumptions that we put into that, but as I mentioned in the prepared remarks, we have about $1.5 billion of net capital to spend which when added to our dividend is higher. There is more capital going out then we would have in AFFO. We're going to have to fund that externally as you know. The mix of that funding and how we're going to do that funding and when is really based on when the nodes come on air over the course of 2019. And then to the extent that we generate additional EBITDA that generate additional debt capacity, we will use that and anything else we would issue equity for to keep our debt to EBITDA on the five times range. And all those assumptions and when and how are baked in, we have ranges around it because those are assumptions and we're going to see how it all plays out.
David Barden:
So, the guide implies a stable share count. So, is it safe to assume that the base case expectation then is, is that $45 million is related primarily to debt financing over the course of the year?
Dan Schlanger:
Yes. David, I think again, what I would say is, if we were looking at as a funding philosophy overtime that keeps us around 5 times debt to EBITDA, to the extent that we can fund all of our discretionary capital with additional debt capacity on our EBITDA. We may have to do some equity at some point and want to do some equity at some point to keep our investment grade ratings. And how all that comes together and the timing of all that is something that we're going to have to be very diligent about and looking into how we fund our capital expenditures in 2019. And we have a lot of assumptions that go into that the financing of how we’re going to make it happen. And we’ll let you know, we’re actually -- we’ll just fund it in a way that will maintain where we’re going.
Jay Brown:
I think maybe the other way to add David and maybe this is kind of where you’re driving toward. As Dan said, as we factor in those various scenarios around how we need to finance the business to maintain our investment grade credit rating, we factor that into the 45. So, our intention would be to deliver on the AFFO per share, which you can calculate and the dividend growth. We expect to be able to deliver on that, given the funding that we expect in front of us in 2019 of funding about on a net basis, about a $1.5 billion. So we’re factoring in the various financing scenarios and giving that guide.
Operator:
We’ll take our next question from Jonathan Atkin from RBC Markets.
Jonathan Atkin:
So two questions. One on the escalator guide for next year, it’s a little off from 2018 levels and I wonder what’s driving that. Is that product mix or anything around term extensions or NOAs? And then secondly in the fiber segment, I’m just kind of interested now that we’re a couple of quarters in. What has surprised you on the upside versus the downside in terms of the business mix, whether it’s e-rates or cell site backhaul or enterprise or what not if you can maybe drill down a little bit into that would appreciate it?
Dan Schlanger:
Thanks, Jon. I’ll take the first one again, I’ll hand it over to Jay for the second one. On the escalator, it’s not nominally and it’s not different than anything we would have expected. The tower businesses still just below 3% on an escalator basis, small cells around 1.5%, and fiber solution has no escalator. So any change for a percentage basis is on the business mix, that’s going into that escalator.
Jay Brown:
On your second question, Jonathan. As we look at the business particularly Lighttower the largest portion of that. What I would tell you is we’re now almost a year in since that acquisition. And the business has performed in line with what our expectations are, as you’ve seen over the course of this year. We’ve delivered right in line with what where we expected the business to perform. And on the integration front, all of the integration activities have been on track. So we think we’ll come out of this year with the asset largely integrated and financial performance that’s in line with the outlook that we provided when we originally bought the assets. So I wouldn’t necessarily point to anything as big surprises. We’ve made, we said multiple times that what has surprised us to the plus side is the level of collocation that we’ve been able to achieve on fiber. Now we certainly believe that to be the case when we made the investments into the business. But collocation has occurred at a higher rate and faster than what we initially anticipated. When we’ve underwritten these investments, we’ve taken an approach that’s very similar to what we’ve done with towers, where we assume that we add one tenant over a 10-year period of time or about 0.1 per year. And what we’ve actually seen is collocation on fiber from small cells in particular, that’s about twice that rate. So, the total return on fiber is driven in part by fiber solutions customers, which you referenced schools and e-rates and other things and the leasing of dark fiber assets to enterprise customers, hospitals, et cetera. And the deployment of small cells and the deployment of small cells has driven that collocation and returns at rates that are higher than what we originally underwrote. And the fiber solutions business as a standalone mix of customers, that’s performed in line with our expectation in the first year of significant ownership.
Jonathan Atkin:
And then if I could just briefly follow up in terms of the small cell activity expected next year and then the macro site leasing activity expected next year. Is the customers set and the demands set broadening across a larger number of the big four carriers? Or is it kind of the same customer concentration but just more activity overall by the same principal customers?
Jay Brown:
We are seeing activity from all four of the operators on small cells. The broadening as we have talked both the increase in the number of nodes that we are turning on year year-over-year, but also the number of new contracted nodes that we are seeing in the business. That's in part a function which we saw over the course of early 2018. Some of that was the broadening of the customer base and all of them beginning to deploy small cells. But I think more recently, if you took this quarter and what we expect to see into 2019 as the activity accelerates there is really a broadening of the number of markets in which those nodes are deployed. Historically the vast majority of the activity has been focused in the top 10 markets, and I think a couple of quarters ago I mentioned that we had expanded that out to really NFL cities, and we're continuing to see a deepening of the need for small cells in those NFL cities and then seeing the carriers and some places are start to move out even beyond the NFL cities. But at the moment, the vast majority of the activity would be concentrated in the top 30 markets in the U.S. roughly, which is an expansion from what was a couple of years ago where it was almost exclusively related to the top 10 markets. And that's driving the increased level of activity.
Operator:
We will take our next question from Colby Synesael from Cowen and Company.
Colby Synesael:
I guess first off just going back to the fiber business I was flipping through the Lightower presentation at the time that it was announced, and in there I think there was a comment that you guys are anticipating, 7% growth in today's comments -- excuse me, you are expecting 5% next year. Is that an apples-to-apples comparison? And if so, does that imply obviously than a slowdown in growth? And if so why? Or am I just misinterpreting how to think about that? And then secondly as it relates to the 10,000 to 15,000 small cells that you anticipate deploying in 2019, as we go out further, do you think that that’s a decent number to have in our heads. And I say that because just in terms of the employees that are needed and what's required on your end, can you even go further than faster than that level. And also from a carrier perspective, do you get any sense that they are going to have the ability to grow faster than that even if they wanted to?
Dan Schlanger:
On the first one, Jay mentioned this earlier, but one of the things that I have been impressed by in the first year with our Lightower, we gave guidance last year this time before we owned Lightower, and we are coming and we are hitting that guidance. And it's something that during the course of an integration like we are going through which has been a complicated integration as we have talked about before of merging Lightower into Crown Castle and merging a bunch of other fiber companies in the Lightower at the same time. The ability to hit those numbers that we put out before we actually own the business is really impressive and something that I think has been a testament to the people working in the business, but also just the business model itself. So as we look at the growth that we see going forward, we've talked about the mid-single-digit growth for a while. And we think that that's something that will continue and we're generally in line with what the expectations were and what we expected when we bought the asset and how effective the assets to perform going forward. And as we incorporate all those other fiber assets or fiber businesses that we bought historically into it, we hope we can expand markets and push that on and make it higher, but we think that mid-single-digits is the right expectation have in mind.
Jay Brown:
Colby, on your second question, I think, there's two things that are probably important to answer with regards to your question. First, specifically around our current operating capability, we can handle the 10,000 to 15,000 nodes that we're talking about in 2019 without the need to really significant change or materially changed our cost structure. As you can see from the outlook that we're providing, we're assuming sort of normal costs escalations in the business and not staffing up. But due to our capabilities, given that it takes 18 to 24 months in those cases to build these nodes. These are capabilities have been in place for a while and while they turn on in 2019, the work associated with those notes began well before calendar year 2019 to get the work done. So I think from a capability standpoint, at the moment, we're staffed appropriately to the level of activity that we're seeing. If we, if I think more broadly about the opportunity around small cells, I don't think 10,000 to 15,000 nodes a year it's going to get anywhere close to accomplishing what the carriers have publicly talked about their needs for small cells and the densification that's going to be required for the 5G. And I believe based on our operating capability, our expertise, the assets that we have, and how we develop relationships with both municipalities and our customers, I believe we're going to be the provider of choice as the opportunity scale. So as I think longer term outside of kind of the periods in which we're getting guidance and the comments that Dan and I were making around our interest and desire to continue to invest, that commentary is based on our belief that the opportunity is scaling and getting larger and we intend and would expect to participate in that. And we want to win and be -- and continue to be the provider of choice to the wireless operators. So we'll continue to follow them and to the extent that this longer term view, if I'm right about the opportunity continuing to increase in an appointment that's needed, then we may at some point need to add additional resources in order to handle that, but that will come with the appropriate cash flows and returns if that does materialize. So short-term, I think we're in pretty good shape in terms of the way we're organized and have staffed and longer term, we're certainly competing to try to make that opportunity even larger. And if it does, then we'll adjust to ensure we have the capabilities to deliver for customers.
Dan Schlanger:
And one other thing, Colby, we mentioned was the capabilities of our customers to accelerate. I think one of the benefits of our business model of being shared infrastructure provider is, if they want to go faster, we'll figure out a way to go faster and that benefits all of our customers. So they somehow figure out that more small cells are needed in 2019 or 2020 or 2024, then 10,000 to 15,000 nodes, we'll make that happen, because we've shown the ability to scale our business. And that helps them because they don't have to pay for the upfront costs, that's really on us and they get to share those economics and it's the best way to deploy small cells is to share them amongst multiple customers because then the cost gets shared. So, we think that our business model is in line we’re trying to accelerate that, as Jay was talking about, and we become the best option for making that happen.
Operator:
We’ll take our next question from Ric Prentiss with Raymond James.
Ric Prentiss:
I had a couple of questions on the discretionary CapEx items. You mentioned the, I think 2 billion gross, 1.5 billion net. What was that in 2018 as far as where you think you’re going to end up?
Dan Schlanger:
It’s about the same Ric, it's in the same ballpark.
Ric Prentiss:
Okay. And as we think about that 2 billion for 2019, can you help us peel that back as far as how much you think might be towers versus small cell versus fiber?
Jay Brown:
Yes. It’s about $400 million or so in tower and the rest is fiber. As you know, the fiber is a shared asset, so we don’t really break it down between fiber and small cells. It’s the fiber segment in total is the remainder of it.
Ric Prentiss:
And that does not include the maintenance capital, right, this is all just discretionary?
Jay Brown:
Yes. But we’re giving ranges here, so to describe that, the maintenance cap is relatively small to begin with. So, these are all ballpark figures. So this is all in the range.
Ric Prentiss:
And then when you think about 500 million range being contributed back by the carrier. How should we think about, how much of that is coming back from tower versus small cell fiber?
Jay Brown:
It’s probably a similar breakdown between how much the total capital is.
Ric Prentiss:
And then kind of all it's all related questions together, the change in the amortization of prepaid rent. Are you still looking like something in the mid 30 to 40 million in ’18? And then should we think that number goes up in ’19 and given the additional capital contributions?
Jay Brown:
It’s about the same because we’re talking about the growth in prepaid rent. It’s going to be in that $40 million range. $35 million to $40 million range in ’18 and in ’19. And because capital is the same in both years and contributed capitals the same in both years, it’s about the same amount of growth.
Ric Prentiss:
And last one for me. We get a lot of questions on Sprint and T-Mobile obviously it’s a hot topic out there. I think in your supplement, you mentioned Sprint was 14% of your total lease revenues or rental revenues with seven years left. Can you break out how much Sprint is on your macro towers because a lot of people are thinking that might be where the more exposure to potential churn might be?
Dan Schlanger:
Yes, it’s in that ballpark Ric. There's no real difference between that. So it’s around, it’s in that 14% range for the Sprint contribution to our macro business. Yes.
Operator:
We’ll take our next question from Amir Rozwadowski with Barclays.
Amir Rozwadowski:
One of the questions in terms of the pace of small cell deployments, I mean we’ve seen some of the new regulations come out by the FCC to sort of try and reduce some of the timing on in terms of deployment. How do you see that sort of impacting the opportunity for you folks going forward here? Could we see a further step up by operators to deploy at a quicker rate? And then sort of as follow-up question. I mean, clearly you folks have made a lot of investments over the last couple years and building up necessary fiber and putting the assets in place to capitalize on this opportunity. As we start to think about this opportunity going forward, I mean clearly collocation is going at a faster rate than you folks had anticipated. Do you believe that this provides you with a very differentiated completive opportunity or should I say very sustainable differentiation and capitalizing a greater share of the small cell deployment as network evolve to embrace that type of technology?
Jay Brown:
Sure. On your first question, I believe the deployment of both fiber and small cell is forever going to be a very localized business. So what the FCC did last month is helpful to the industry to the wireless carriers and to ourselves by making clear what the underlying fees are associated with deploying and the public right of way and then setting forth some timeline, which municipalities are expected to respond to request in order to do that. So, what it does as it gives a clear line of sight both in terms of cost and timing. But it in no way negates the necessity and the importance of us continuing to work with those municipalities as we manage and deploy the infrastructure in ways that are sensitive to the aesthetic and the needs of the local community. So I wouldn't look at that and assume that we're going to see a material change in our 18 to 24 month deployment cycle. In fact, we don't believe that will result. But we do believe that it is helpful in some problematic municipalities where they've been absolute basically blockers to the deployment of the technology and the deployment of fiber and small cells in the public right of way. So in some places, we may actually see a little bit of benefit, but I think on the whole what you should expect is our deployment cycle will continue to be in that 18 to 24 months range, and the FCC order is helpful as the scale of the deployment, as I was mentioning earlier moves well past just the top 10 markets and moves across the larger portion of the U.S., as it gives us greater visibility on what the economics are going to look like and the timing of approvals et cetera at the local level. On your second question, this is very similar our view in the deployment of fiber to what we saw with towers, which is the low cost provider, ultimately wins the day. And we've invested in an asset that can be shared across multiple customers thereby lowering the cost of those customers and whether the customers the university, school district or a wireless carrier who's looking to deploy small cell. That shared fiber asset means that we're able to deliver to them a very low cost provision of that fiber. And in markets where we have and own the fiber we do believe over the long term that low cost will win and it will attract additional customers as they look for the lowest cost alternative and the deployment of their network. As we look at opportunities outside of the markets that we're in, we may see an opportunity for us to continue to invest capital and expand the portfolio of assets that we have or it may be that the returns are such that we choose to just own the assets that we build in the top markets that we've done thus far. And we see the model transition more towards the collocation model. So it just depends on how the market develops and where the returns are, whether we continue to expand the footprint or utilize the assets that we've acquired to date. But as I mentioned in my comments, what has been clear in the early days of this is that having the asset in place drives what we fundamentally believe was the business model when we got into this business that it's a shared asset just like towers. And our goal is to put as many tenants on that shared assets as we possibly can, and the benefits customers at low cost provision and it benefits us is as it increases financial returns and that's the way we're seeing the business play out and pretty excited about where we're positioned relative to the deployment schedules that are ongoing around 5G.
Dan Schlanger:
And as you pointed out, Amir, just to add a little bit to that, we do believe we have sustainable advantages, especially in the markets where we have built fiber and have a pretty broad expanse of that fiber within a market. It's hard to come in and overbuild and try to compete on price and try to compete on network quality and try to compete on all of the capabilities that Jay talked about. So as this market would expand, if it expands and we believe it will, I think we hope to maintain that competitive advantage and press on it. As we invest in future markets that Jay talked about but especially in the markets we're already in, we think that we are in a really good spot.
Operator:
Thank you. We'll take our next question from Nick Del Deo with MoffettNathanson.
Nick Del Deo:
First, if we go back to your Q1 2017 earnings call, you guys know that you had about 25,000 small cell nodes on air at the time, and you said that your backlog number of nodes on air would approximately double after 18 to 24 months. So, we don't know the exact cadence with those installations, or how the pricing for those nodes compared to the installed base, but it still seems like it would have been sufficient to drive an increase in small cell revenue in '19, in excess of what you guided to. So can you talk a bit about what might bridge that gap? Or alternatively, if there's something wrong with the notion that if you're on air node count doubles your small cell revenue should roughly speaking also double?
Dan Schlanger:
So a couple of things I would point to. Broadly, if you think about what has happened over the last couple years and you look at revenue growth, if you look at our revenue growth in 2017, and then look at the revenue growth that we're expecting in 2019 from small cells, it is basically a double from in terms of revenue growth over that over that period of time. So that, that come that's one way of thinking about it. Second thing, I would point out to you is as we talked about the average of deployment cycles of 18 to 24 months, depending on where that falls, that can have a little bit of an impact of the pacing of that. And you'd have to look at both the pacing in 2017 and when those came on air, and then also the pacing in 2019. And those two things could have, if you were trying to put a really fine point on a couple of million dollars to figure out where that falls one way or the other. The timing in both period could affect the way that that those numbers fall out. As I've talked about, on this call this morning, from a return standpoint, we haven't seen the returns change at all over that several year period of time. So we haven't seen any real change in pricing as a result of that. So it's not a pricing difference, I think you're probably just looking at a bit of timing differences and when this when this activity falls, and obviously if some portion of the nodes that we're talking about in 2019 fall towards the second half of the year, then the financial impact in calendar year 2019 is relatively small. Last thing, I would mention to you is, I think probably the best indication of how we're performing on this front is the statement of customers and how we're doing on winning additional nodes. And as I made the point in my comments, I mean our pipelines up about 40% year-over-year from this time last year. So, we're delivering on the customer commitments that we've made and that's resulting in those customers giving us increasing levels of activity because we're the best provider in the market and they believe us to be able to deliver on the goal. So I think if you look at revenue growth, if you look at returns which have stayed the same and then you look at kind of activity and what we’re seeing as additional business from the customers. I think all of those signs point to the fact that the business is performing in line with what we expected in ’19 at this point looks like it’s shaping up to be a pretty good year in terms of the deployment of additional nodes.
Nick Del Deo:
And maybe one more on the fiber segment this quarter. It looks like fiber segment revenue grew about a percent sequentially or something less than 1% that we backed out and they should be pay rent. If we assume that small cells are about a quarter that business and they’re growing at a rate in the teens that would imply fiber solutions revenue was flattered down sequentially. Because I know there can be credits and settlements and stuff like that, that can swing things around. But is there anything going on there is that we should be cognizant of?
Jay Brown:
Yes, Nick, there’s nothing really to be going on there, and I think that’s borne out in our 2019 guidance. We really look at the trajectory of the growth of this business has been pretty consistent in that mid-single-digit range. And any quarter-over-quarter move, like you’re talking about is it may not go exactly stair step, but we think generally speaking, it’s going to go up in that 5% range year-over-year. And there shouldn’t be huge differentials in quarter-to-quarter moves. But if there are there, there’s nothing that would, we think we would want to call out or pull your, put your attention to, or else we would actually do that in a way that would make it pretty clear. But there’s nothing that happened in the third quarter that would rise to that level.
Operator:
We’ll take our next question from Phil Cusick with JP Morgan.
Unidentified Analyst:
Hi. This is Richard for Phil. Given your commentary about the backlog and the amount of small cells that might be meeting to come online, it seems like, we might be ramping from the 10 to 15 to something higher. Should we expect CapEx and OpEx to come up longer term as these are the returns are very good? So it’s worth it. But how should we think about that opportunity and the impact on CapEx and OpEx?
Dan Schlanger:
Thanks for the question, Richard. On the OpEx side, as we put these nodes on air, the margins are in the neighborhood of about 60%, roughly. So there’s going to be operating expense that we see track with those, with the deployment of nodes. Specifically, as Dan mentioned earlier about 70% of what we’re putting on our new systems and about 30% are collocations. So I think on a blended basis, somewhere in the neighborhood of about 60% is probably the right guidance in terms of impact of OpEx or direct OpEx. From a CapEx standpoint, we talked about what we’re turning on air in '19 and the capital spending that we think there will be in 2019. If you’re trying to go out further than that, I think you have to start to make us scale decision. And I’ll leave that to you in terms of how much you want to scale the business beyond the level that we’re seeing currently. For a like level of activity, I would assume a like amount of capital that would be the guidance that I would give you. And if you want to scale it up or down from there, I think you can scale the capital relative to that, and I think that’ll be a pretty good answer. And then maybe the last component to round out on the OpEx side, around the staffing levels that we have in place for the deployment of small cells. We believe we’re appropriately sized at the moment for delivering on those 10,000 to 15,000 per year. And then if we see a scale increase from there, or I guess a decrease then we’ll adjust the cost structure appropriately, but without having a specific number to talk to it's difficult to give you that. I think what I would say is, if the returns stay as they are and then we are happy to put additional investment around our ability to deploy nodes, and we think those will be attractive returns and if they are not then we would pass on the opportunity or pass on the investment opportunity. But if everything holds as it is now and we are certainly hopeful we are going to continue to see the business. We will be happy to make investments around the capabilities to continue to deployment scale if the market has the opportunity to.
Nick Del Deo:
I guess my question was more --it seems like you're implying that there's a bigger opportunity and you're seeing a bigger backlog. Am I taking that the wrong way?
Dan Schlanger:
Oh, no, we are definitely seeing a bigger opportunity. I think I'm just trying to limit my comments to -- calendar year 2019 rather than go out beyond 2019. So, we are certainly pointing to the fact that there's lots of early seeds that would suggest that the business is going to continue to scale and grow. And as we get into calendar year 2019 and start to think about giving guidance for 2020 then we will be happy to update you on what the cost structure looks like.
Nick Del Deo:
And then finally, can you talk about -- give us a little more color on churn? There is a lot going on there I know. What are you seeing in terms of churn with towers, small cells and fiber, if we just go through that I think that would be helpful?
Dan Schlanger:
Sure, Richard. As I mentioned in the prepared remarks, the tower churn is on the high end of our 1% to 2% range, so call it around 2% on towers. More than half of that is from the remaining acquired network churn. Just to give you some background on that, I know you remember that we had in our supplement historically provided some acquired network churn over time that was because of the -- we thought that that acquired network churn was going to push our overall tower churn above the 1% to 2% historical range. So we wanted to get additional color on that. But now that we are back in that range we've taken that disclosure out because we think this 1% or 2% is indicative of what the future is going to look like, including for 2019. But if you look at the last disclosure we had beyond 2020 we are somewhere between 35 million and 60 million so we are seeing the churn that we expected from those acquired networks over this year and that’s what pushed us up to the higher end of the range but we are still within our historical 1% to 2%. On the small cell side, we are really not seeing a whole bunch of churn to speak at all so less than 1% of what we said but it’s a pretty small number. I think that both indicative of the early stage we're in but also have been speaking for the business overall that once the small cells are installed it's very difficult to get off of those small cells because we are providing service to customers. On the fiber side we are in the high single-digits range and so when you add all of those things up you get into that number that's around the $175 million overall churn that we put in our outlook.
Operator:
Thank you. We will take our next question from Brett Feldman with Goldman Sachs.
Brett Feldman:
Thanks, I actually wanted to go back and ask you guys a follow up on Dave's question earlier in the call when he was talking about your funding plan for the year, and I think this is the way I interpreted Dan's answer, but let me know if I'm wrong. It sounds like you determined over the course of the year, it was appropriate to issue equity financing then obviously your share count will be higher than it is now. But I also -- I think I heard that it's possible your interest expense may end up being lower cause you wouldn't necessarily have to issue as much debt as maybe is embedded in the interest expense assumptions in your guidance? Is that a fair interpretation of those comments?
Dan Schlanger:
It is Brett.
Jay Brown:
It is Brett. Yes.
Brett Feldman:
Okay. Good, now, I'll ask a business question then. There's been a lot of focus on sort of what's been driving power leasing activity in the U.S. this year. And there seems to be an embedded assumption that the year has been sort of ramping in part because projects have been ramping, whether it's first net or things other carriers are doing. And so as you were trying to think about, what was an appropriate outlook for your tower business for 2019? And we know that you think you're going to have more new leasing activity then you saw this year. Are you sort of saying that you're comfortable that the exit rate of 2018, which is a higher exit rate than you started the year at, is sustainable? Or is there something else more nuanced in terms of how you got there? And then just as an extension of that, how sensitive is that outlook to whether or not Sprint and T-Mobile actually starting to combine your businesses in the second half of 2019?
Jay Brown:
You know, Brett, I think that we -- when we look at this item and I would say this about towers leasing or small cells or fiber solutions. When we give the outlook, we obviously don't have perfect visibility for what's going to happen over the next 12 months. So we base the outlook on both the activity that we're seeing currently and then the conversations that we're having with our customers and what those conversations lead to in terms of our expectations for financial results for the ongoing year. So for 2019, that I think the answer to your question around tower leasing is it's a combination of, it's a combination of both of those things. So we have seen an accelerating leasing environment over the course of 2018. Then there are a number of events whether you want to talk about first net, at the deployment of 5G, general upgrades and the network and diversification efforts that are ongoing. All of those things are factoring into our expectation for 2019. And it is an elevated level of activity that we would expect to continue throughout the course of all of the 2019. For our assumptions as we thought about those, that leasing activity, with regard specifically to T-Mobile and Sprint that you asked about, we have assumed that they will continue business as usual in those assumptions. And I think based on the comments that T-Mobile has made, publicly with regards to the acquisition of Sprint, it's very clearly designed and their intention is to make significant investments around the deployment of 5G at levels that would exceed those of both what T-Mobile and Sprint have done independently on a combined basis. And so, we would look at that and say, we assume that model continues to play itself out. And that reflects our level of activity for 2019. Obviously it depends to some degree, the second part of your question there, on the timing of that combination and what the impact is even to the positive or to the negative, depending on when the combination happens. But at the moment, they're independent companies and we're seeing them operate as such. And so we base our outlook based on the activity that we're currently seeing for them.
Brett Feldman:
And I would imagine that if, you're on the middle of the year, and they started to execute leases, which probably wouldn't even put in place till later in the year. At that point, you're kind of locked into the remainder of the year anyway, even if they decided to modify what they're doing and say, 2020 or longer. Is that fair?
Jay Brown:
Yes, that's the nature of the businesses, six months, six months into calendar year 2019 at that point, the vast majority of everything that will be turned on air the carriers have committed to. And then if you think about small cells or what happens on the small cell side, that activity was lower than committed to a couple of years ago. So we have some visibility around when that will turn on. So events that happen as we get towards the certainly as we get towards the middle of the second half of the year have very little to no impact to the financial results in that calendar year.
Operator:
We’ll take our next question from Michael Rollins from Citi.
Michael Rollins:
Just a few follow ups, if I could. First, on the description that some of that churn, the towers is getting pulled in. Does that also create an accelerated amount of payment for the customers to exit a lease early? And if so, is that in the guidance? And then if I could also then follow-up on the fiber business. Can you talk a little bit more about what goes in new leasing activity and churn? So for example like price increases, price decreases, service upgrades or downgrades. How you treat that within the revenue bridge? And is fiber churn that you’re expecting for 2019. Is that a normal year of churn or are there some helps or hurts that we should just be thinking through?
Dan Schlanger:
I’ll take the first one Mike. Thanks for the question. I wasn’t trying to say that our churn was being pulled in. The thing is there’s acquired network churn that is in line with what our expectations have been. And so, they’re not accelerated payments that we would have in our guidance to have that. It’s just churn that we expected and it’s coming in as we expected. On the fiber side…
Jay Brown:
Yes. On the fiber side, on the churn, this is this is probably a bit of a difference between the way we typically historically talked about what happens in the tower business and some of what happens in the fiber business. And we’ve chosen to just sort of conform to the industry norm. So I’ll give you an example. In the tower business, if a customer comes out and wants to add an amendment and put additional antennas on an existing array. Historically, as the tower industry we’ve called that an amendment and taking that additional revenue in the form of an amendment. In the fiber business, they actually count the legacy lease as churn and then put in a new lease that’s post the legacy dollar amount and then the new amended rate. And so in some ways causes churn to look elevated beyond what we would think about in the tower business as churn. In the tower business, the churn means that the customer went away and there was no replacement of revenue. In the fiber business, you have a component of what I just described as an amendment, where the customer very well may end up paying more for the services as they take on additional capacity in the fiber network. And in some cases you have occasions where a large enterprise will move office buildings and go to a new location. And you have an asset there and potentially a new tenant that moves into the building and you release that same fiber network and at a cost of virtually little to no additional capital investments. Again that’s counted as churn even if the entire revenue stream is replaced by the tenant taking over that location. So in some respects I think you could look at the 9% number and say, it’s a higher percentage than is actually functionally happened in the business as we experienced churn. But we’ve just sort of taken the course of let’s continue to report the number in a way that’s consistent way. Others have thought about the fiber business consistent with the way Lightower thought about the business given that they had public debt and then in a number of meetings and explain the business. But all of that I would say well, maybe helpful for your own thinking about what the impact is for the business. At the end of the day, the right way to think about the business is what's the net revenue growth which is why we talk about Dan talked about kind of the specific net growth in the fiber business around 5% net growth. We think that's a good assumption, and we believe we can continue to operate the business in the mid-single digits of growth at the revenue line there. And obviously that bolsters our total returns on fiber.
Michael Rollins:
That's very helpful. And would you describe.
Dan Schlanger:
Sorry Mike, I just want to make sure I answered all of your questions. I think you also mention is there anything that's abnormal in the year around churn, nothing that we would point to. We think 2019 at least at this point we expect that to be a normal year. So our expectation of high-single digit churn in that business, there is nothing in there that I would point to as abnormally to pluses or minuses.
Operator:
Thank you. We'll take our next question from Robert Gutman from Guggenheim Securities.
Robert Gutman:
So prepaid rent on the fiber side has been volatile this year, is this reflecting small cell CapEx reimbursements? And then, should we infer that there were fewer deployments in the third quarter versus the second quarter? And then little more broadly, can you say what you expect the total small cell deployments over the course of this year could be versus that longer term 10,000 to 15,000 target?
Dan Schlanger:
So thanks Robert. On the prepaid rent, the answer to your question is, yes. Most of that increase in prepaid amortization is related to capital contributions that we get for the deployment of additional small cells. It happens as that capital is being spent and then being reimbursed. It is not directly in line with the number of notes put on air in that same period. So you cannot look at it quarter-over-quarter and make an assumption or draw a conclusion around what the level of activity is in that quarter because those things are not always aligned. We spend and get capital in ways that are much more aligned with milestones and payments and it has, it's very difficult to try to equate that directly to how many nodes go on air in a quarter? I think year-on-year you can make a better view of that, but even that starts getting a little skewed depending on when they come on air and when we gotten paid for them. But generally speaking, the prepaid rent amortization has to do with those capital contributions because those are generally speaking again similar '19 than they are in '18, the growth in prepaid rent is going to be about the same in '19 as it is in 2018.
Jay Brown:
On your second question around nodes, this year, we'll probably put somewhere in the neighborhood of 6,000 to 8,000 on air roughly next year we'll be in that 10,000 to 15,000 range.
Operator:
Thank you. We'll take our next question from Spencer Kurn from New Street Research.
Spencer Kurn:
So, we're seeing carrier strike deals for the number of municipalities to leverage the city's infrastructure for small cell deployments. And I'm just curious, do these agreements impact the way that you compete or the way you look at the overall opportunity in these types of markets relative to markets for carriers you haven't made these types of deals?
Jay Brown:
Thanks Spencer. We not only have the carriers done that, but we have done that in instances where we're work with municipalities and strike a deal with the local municipality in order to be able to deploy small cell. So, the deals are helpful because somewhere to the order from the FCC. They give line of sight in terms of what's required and the timelines that are required and what the economics are. And so it's not, I don't think it's anything unusual not what I point to it as that changing to the, to the business model or the timing is just normal course of dealing that we would find in the market. And I don't believe anything that the FCC has done will really change that. And then as I made my comments earlier, what the FCC has done is really given better line of sight around the economics and timing. And so to the extent that as we work with municipalities and figure out what the right local solution is, it certainly gives some guidelines and guardrails to what that conversation should look like and what the outcome will ultimately be. So, I think you're probably less likely to see things that kind of hit the paper per se, given the guidelines and guardrails that the FCC has put in place. But I wouldn't be completely surprised if you don't continue to see the municipalities strike deals with carriers or with ourselves in order to do things that our markets specific.
Spencer Kurn:
Yes, actually, so my question wasn't so much about the ability to strike deals with municipalities, but it was about sort of how you compete in cities or if your returns are different in cities where a carrier like Verizon has struck a deal with a municipality to use their infrastructure versus another market where they haven't, and I was just curious if, the way you look at the returns you can generate are any different or if it's sort of just normal course of business and it doesn't really matter?
Jay Brown:
For the most part the infrastructure is deployed in the public right of way. So if your question is going to their discriminatory pricing among providers inside of that public right of way, I would tell you that one it's not permissible by law to have discriminatory pricing. So the deals that use these struck either by ourselves or by the carriers are for the benefit of anyone who would operate inside of the public right of way for a similar deployment of infrastructure. So I think, again, back to my comments, I think it's an relatively normal activity that you're going to see providers who are funding play infrastructure go through that process with local municipalities, and I don't think it has really any implications to the positive or the negative to our business.
Operator:
Thank you. This is the last question. We turn it over to Amy Yong from Macquarie.
Amy Yong:
Thanks for squeezing me in. And I was wondering if you could comment on your recent standard deal with T-Mobile obviously they've been clearing 600, they've chosen you as their preferred partner in their small cell deployment. Wondering, if you could share any components of this deal respectful of obviously any kind of customer confidentiality, but components of the deal you're willing to share and also if it contemplated at all T-Mobile and Sprint?
Dan Schlanger:
Amy, I hate to do this to you on your last question of the day, but we don't like to comment specifically on individual customer relationships. Obviously, they were kind enough to give us credit for the role that we're playing in the deployment of their network, and we've done a significant amount of business with T-Mobile and are doing a significant amount as they referenced in their press release of the need for 5G and the important role that Crown Castle has played for them, both in what we've done so far and what we're going to do. And I would just tell you, it really goes across the board across multiple carriers. We're focused on delivering for those customers based on their needs around 5G and they're going to need a lot of, they're going to need a lot of, they’re going to need a lot of small cell nodes and they’re going to have to spend a significant amount of capital to densify their networks in order to deliver on their 5G commitments. And our asset sits in a sweet spot for that. So, we’re working with all of the carriers and certainly we have conversations around how we think the world will develop and what their needs will be. And then our aim is to be able to deliver a solution that works for them, it’s the low cost provision. And then also delivers to shareholders, the returns that we need to deliver in order to drive an increasing dividend of 7% to 8% per year over the long-term.
Jay Brown:
Well, thanks, everyone for joining us this morning on the call. And we’ll talk to you next quarter. Thanks so much.
Operator:
Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. This concludes today’s teleconference. You may now disconnect.
Executives:
Ben Lowe - Vice President of Corporate Finance Jay Brown - Chief Executive Officer Dan Schlanger - Chief Financial Officer
Analysts:
Nick Del Deo - MoffettNathanson David Barden - Bank of America Jonathan Atkin - RBC Markets Brett Feldman - Goldman Sachs Ric Prentiss - Raymond James Philip Cusick - JPMorgan Matthew Niknam - Deutsche Bank Amir Rozwadowski - Barclays Colby Synesael - Cowen and Company Walter Piecyk - BTIG Spencer Kurn - New Street Research Batya Levi - UBS Robert Gutman - Guggenheim Partners Tim Horan - Oppenheimer
Operator:
Good day, and welcome to the Crown Castle International Q2 2018 Earnings Call. Today's conference is being recorded. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Ben Lowe. Please go ahead, sir.
Ben Lowe:
Great. Thank you, Todd and good morning everyone. Thank you for joining us today as we review our second quarter 2018 results. With me on the call is morning are Jay Brown, Crown Castle’s Chief Executive Officer and Dan Schlanger, Crown Castle’s Chief Financial Officer. To aid the discussion, we have posted supplemental materials in the Investors section of our website at crowncastle.com, which we will refer to throughout the call this morning. This conference call will contain forward-looking statements, which are subject to certain risks, uncertainties and assumptions, and actual results may vary materially from those expected. Information about potential factors, which could affect our results is available in the press release and the Risk Factors section of the company’s SEC filings. Our statements are made as of today, July 19, 2018, and we assume no obligations to update any forward-looking statements. In addition, today’s call includes discussions of certain non-GAAP financial measures. Tables reconciling these non-GAAP financial measures are available in the Supplemental Information Package in the Investors section of the company’s website at crowncastle.com. With that, I'll turn the call over to Jay.
Jay Brown:
Thanks, Ben, and good morning everyone. It's a great time to be a part of Crown Castle. We are uniquely positioned to win in our market due to our strategy, solutions and history. Over the past two decades we have created an unmatched portfolio of more than 40,000 towers and 60,000 route miles of dense high capacity fiber in the top U.S. markets. As a result, our ability to offer customers integral components of leading edge communication networks continues to drive our success while generating high returns for our shareholders as we share our assets across multiple tenants. Based on industry fundamentals and expected growth, we think that the US represents the best market in the world for communications infrastructure and that our differentiated strategy will capitalize on this compelling opportunity. With the positive momentum, we are experiencing in our towers and fiber we remain bullish on investing in our business to generate future growth while delivering dividend per share growth of 7% to 8% per year. On the call this morning, I want to highlight three important things I'm seeing in our business and the broader industry. First, we're delivering on another great year of growth in 2018. Secondly, we're capitalizing on the trends that continue to build across towers, small cells and fiber. And we are investing at very attractive returns as we build the communications networks for the future. On the first point, we delivered another great quarter of financial results reflecting the demand for our shared infrastructure assets and terrific execution by our team. As the volume of data delivered by both wireless and wired networks continues to grow our customers are increasing the capacity of their networks by leasing access to our towers and fiber, which in turn generates growth in our cash flows. As a result, we remain on track to deliver approximately 10% growth in AFFO per share in 2018 with higher levels of new leasing activity across all of our business. The growth in cash flow supports our current annualized dividend of $4.20 per share representing 11% growth year-over-year. This growing dividend both aligns with our business model and provides a significant source of value to our shareholders. Turning to the second point, momentum continues to build across both towers and fiber, with a growing backlog of committed new business. We are seeing persistent positive tailwinds across our business that are driving significant demand for our portfolio of shared infrastructure assets. On the tower side of the business, our customers are improving and intensifying their network by adding more equipment to their existing leases and adding new leases on our towers. As our customers invest more in their networks to keep up with the growing demand, our leasing activity remains on track to be higher in 2018 than it was last year. Within our fiber business, those same underlying demand trends are also creating a need for our customers to deploy fiber fed small cells at scale to further improve the quality of their networks. After starting the year off in the first quarter with a comparable number of small cell bookings to what we signed in all of 2016, we had another terrific quarter of bookings in the second quarter, as our contracted pipeline of small cell nodes to be constructed continues to increase. Due primarily to the permitting and planning process, it typically takes us about 18 to 24 months for these contracted nodes to be put on air and start generating revenue. Consistent with our expectations, we continue to see very attractive returns on small cell investments, with initial yields of 6% to 7% for the first tenant. And similar to towers we're seeing demand for multiple tenants on the same asset, resulting in high incremental margins that grow the yields into the mid to high teens. We expect these growth trends and attractive returns to hold. And if they do, we will continue to pursue discretionary investments that we believe will expand our long-term opportunity which brings me to my third and final theme. We are really excited about the investments we are making to build new assets that we expect will drive long-term growth and cash flows and dividends per share. We believe we're in the very early innings of a huge opportunity with fiber which has become critical for wireless and wired networks. Over the last several years, we have built and acquired more than 60000 route miles of dense high capacity fiber in the top markets where we see the greatest long-term demand for multiple customers. While the current utilization of our fiber is less than a single tenant tower, our current 8% yield is more than double what we saw when our towers only had one tenant. We are using the exact same playbook we used with towers by sharing the asset across multiple tenants to drive attractive returns and it's playing out better than we could have expected. All of this increases our conviction to continue to invest in fiber where the expected returns and opportunities meet our disciplined investment criteria. As I reflect on my 19 years at Crown Castle, it's remarkable to me how similar the opportunity around small cells and fiber is to the early days of the tower business. When we were acquiring and building towers nearly 20 years ago. We were making significant upfront investments in assets with really skinny initial yield. This was based on our view at the time that we could increase the cash flows and yields from those assets over time as we added tenants. Today everyone agrees the tower business is a great business. But in the early days of towers, there was no shortage of skeptics who thought that the towers wouldn't be shared by multiple customers or the returns would never exceed our cost of capital or anyone could overbuild us or the economics will be lost at renewals. Steady performance and consistent execution over the last two decades has proven that providing shared communications infrastructure assets is a great business. Fast forward to where we sit today with the opportunity to once again invest in infrastructure needed for the future of communications. Today, we have invested approximately $13 billion of capital that is already yielding 8% and have secured prime fiber real estate across the top US market, making Crown Castle the clear leader in small cells. Since we made our initial investment in small cells, we have seen the market rapidly evolve from a small opportunity and only a few locations to where we are today with all four of the major wireless customers deploying small cells at scale across all of the top markets. And we believe we are at the very beginning of what will ultimately be in opportunities that rivals or exceeds what we have seen play out with towers over the last two decades where demand has far surpassed what even we could imagine at the time we made our initial investments. One of the things that we learned from our experience in towers is that investing early in the right assets in the top markets positions us to capture potential future demand that may arise beyond what is visible at the time of the investment, as communications evolve in ways we can't even conceive today. We’ve done our unmatched portfolio of assets, I believe Crown Castle is the best positioned to capture these immense long-term opportunities, while consistently returning capital to shareholders through a high quality dividend that we expect to grow 7% to 8% annually. And with that, I'll turn the call over to Dan.
Dan Schlanger:
Thanks, Jay, and good morning, everyone. As Jay mentioned, we had another quarter of results and remain on track to generate solid growth and cash flows and dividends for the full year. We continue to benefit from very favorable industry fundamentals that are creating significant demand for our unmatched portfolio of towers and high capacity fiber assets, which is apparent in our financial results and outlook. Starting with second quarter 2018 results, as you can see on slide four of the presentation, we exceeded the high end of guidance for site rental revenues and adjusted EBITDA with AFFO exceeding the midpoint of the range. When compared to our prior outlook, there are two primary items that impacted second quarter results. First, site rental revenues benefited from approximately $9 million of additional straight lined revenues primarily resulting from term extensions associated with leasing activity. Second, some of the network services contributions we previously expected in the second quarter is now expected to come through the remainder of 2018. Turning to the balance sheet. We recently executed two financing transactions that increased our financial flexibility. Specifically, we increased the commitments under our revolver by $750 million and extended the maturity date on our credit facility by approximately one year. And in July, we refinanced $1 billion of existing secured tower revenue notes that would have matured in 2020 with new secured tower revenue notes that have a weighted average term of nearly nine years and an average coupon of 4.1%. Pro forma for those transactions, we now have nearly $4 billion of available capacity on our revolver and a no meaningful debt maturities before 2021. Additionally, we finished the quarter at 5.2 times debt to EBITDA and expect to end the year at approximately five times due to the anticipated growth in EBITDA in the second half of 2018. Now turning to slide five. At the midpoint, we increased the full year 2018 outlook for site rental revenues and adjusted EBITDA while leading the outlook for AFFO unchanged. The increases to site rental revenues and adjusted EBITDA primarily reflect the higher expected contribution from straight lined revenues which does not impact AFFO. Consistent with the additional straight lined revenues in the second quarter, the higher expected straight lined revenues from 2018 are a result of term extensions associated with leasing activity. Turning to slide six. The only changes to our outlook for site rental revenue growth relates to the increase to straight lined revenues I just discussed that impact both the third bar from the right and the total growth in site rental revenues on the far right. The left half of the chart which relates to our organic contribution of site rental revenues remains unchanged at the midpoints when compared to our prior outlook. Moving on to slide seven. We have maintained our outlook for the midpoint of AFFO growth from 2017 to 2018, but narrowed the ranges to now be between $400 million and $430 million. So in closing, we delivered another quarter of great financial results and remain on track to generate 10% growth in AFFO per share in 2018. Momentum continues to build across towers, small cells and fiber which illustrates how well positioned our business is to capitalize on the positive industry fundamentals in the US. Looking further out, we are excited about the current investments we are making in new assets that we believe will extend the long-term opportunity while generating compelling returns for our shareholders to a high quality dividend that we expect to grow 7% to 8% annually. With that Todd, I'd like to open the call to questions.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Nick Del Deo with MoffettNathanson.
Nick Del Deo:
Thanks for taking my questions. First, with respect to Lightower and some of the other fiber assets you've required, you've indicated in the past that one of your goals was to apply some of Lightower's management practices to the other assets bringing more business out of them. What is - where does things stand on that front? And I guess, if you can comment on iteration more generally that would be helpful.
Jay Brown:
Sure, Nick. Good morning. We do plan to do that. One of our premises as I talked about multiple tenants across the same asset is both the synergies that we bring in terms of revenue synergies that we bring in terms of adding small cells to the fiber that Lightower had constructed and also taking the platform that Lightower had and selling fiber solutions across the nearly 30,000 miles of fiber that we had which were built and acquired primarily for small cells. And we're in the process of just doing exactly that so we're prioritizing the markets where we think that there's the greatest opportunity and we're in the process of working on that and more to come. But as we had initially thought we believe there really are revenue synergies and growth opportunities around that and we're in the process - early days of working towards that end. On the integration front, things are going well on track for what we had expected. And we expect the financial results for calendar year 2018 to come in right where we expected them. So everything is performing within expectations and we're pretty excited about what the longer term opportunity of taking that platform out beyond just the fiber that we acquired directly from Lightower.
Nick Del Deo:
Okay. That's great. And maybe one for Dan. Prepaid rent received in the quarter was pretty substantial. Is there anything that we should be aware of behind that? And I guess, more generally, should we think of that as a leading indicator for activity or a lagging indicator or just pretty much into it one way or the other?
Dan Schlanger:
Yes. It's tougher pretty much into it one way or the other. The way I would interpret it is there is more activity it's just the timing of any one quarter versus another is too hard to read into. The good part about it is I think what it shows is that activity is increasing overall and that we're continuing to see a contribution from our customers as we build out small cell nodes and systems.
Nick Del Deo:
Okay. Got it. Thanks guys.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from David Barden with Bank of America.
David Barden:
Hey, guys. Thanks for taking the question. I guess, a couple, if I could. Just first on the straight line revenue increase and the customer term extensions it does appear it was AT&T, I know you guys you don't like to talk about individual customers. But it does appear that its AT&T based on your disclosures. And I was wondering kind of how this term extension relates to the MLA they got signed last quarter that AT&T announced that they signed and whether this relationship between these two things. And if you can expect that this is a sort of thing that might continue or if this was more of a one off exercise? The second one was kind of ignoring the year-over-year asymmetry in the business with the Lightower acquisition and looking more at kind of the quarter on quarter sequential progress in the fiber services business could you disaggregate that between what's kind of the small cell business growth and the enterprise services revenue growth in that fiber business? That would be helpful. Thanks.
Jay Brown:
Sure. On the straight line and term extensions that you're talking about the – you're right that the supplement shows that we increased the overall term with AT&T. We're not going to talk specifically about what happened but I would just say that it doesn't mean that's the only thing that happened in the quarter. This is related to as we signed new amendments and new leasing activity that we're getting extensions to some of those – with some of those amendments in the leasing activity. And because of that, it is driving an increase in the straight lined revenues and then ultimately driving an increase in the term that we have with our customer. I would not necessarily tie it to the MLA one way or the other. It's just that we are getting extensions when we're signing amendments and new leases.
David Barden:
Just to clarify Dan that was just more on the cadence of the business leases come up for renewal all the time and this just has happened to be more of one off exercise rather than something part of a larger picture?
Dan Schlanger:
Well I think it's not necessarily a one off exercise. It's part of how we are entering in contracts with our customers. And as you can see, we expect to increase straight line revenue through the remainder of 2018. So it's not just that, it happened once and we never expected, again. But it's the magnitude of it was such that we wanted to call out in the second quarter and then show what it does for the net remainder of 2018.
David Barden:
Okay.
Jay Brown:
On your second question Dave the way we've look at the business and really manages thinking about it on a year-over-year basis. And so if you disaggregate it the revenue growth from the various component from a tower standpoint I'll give you the 2017 growth numbers and compare that to 2018. So in 2017, we grew towers about $105 million. And this year, we'll do about $110 million, so up about $5 million on the towers side year-over-year. On the small cell side, we did about $40 million of increase last year. This year we'll do about $55 million from small cells. And then last year, we did about $25 million on the fiber side. And this year we'll do about $45 million. So as Dan mentioned, those numbers are consistent with what we talked about last quarter and really pretty consistent with what we thought going into the calendar year and the business has performed right there where we had expected it to.
David Barden:
All right. Great, thanks guys.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from Jonathan Atkin with RBC Markets.
Jonathan Atkin:
Thanks. So I was interested a little bit in your small cell pipeline that you talked about that continues to grow. And how diverse is that in terms of the number of operators that you see ramping up their spend? And then secondly my question around, I wonder if there's any sort of an update around the activities of Vapor IO? Thank you.
Jay Brown:
On the first question Jonathan, we are seeing activity across all four of the major operators on small cells and we're seeing them throughout the vast majority of our fiber and small cells are in the top 25 markets and that continues. So we're seeing the vast majority of the activity there. We are starting to see some activity outside of the MSO markets and that's growing. I think our long-term belief is that we're going to continue to see the carriers invest in needs small cell slightly through the top 25, 30 markets and into the top 50 and potentially all the way through the top 100 markets in a meaningful way. But right now the activity is mostly focused in NFL cities and we're seeing that from all four of the operators. So there's pretty good diversity both in terms of geography as well as the carriers spend and focus there. On the second question, I don't know that we have a lot to update on Vapor. For folks on the call who aren't familiar with that Vapor is a company that's focused on edge data centers with the very edge of the network which becomes increasingly important in low latency applications. We made a small investment last year and it's continued to follow that. And we believe there's a tremendous opportunity as networks develop particularly around CRAN and the importance of tower sites as an important hub to the overall wireless communications networks. We believe that over time there will be edge data centers that are there and Vapor is in that business. So it doesn't contribute anything to our revenues or EBITDA at this point, but we believe that's a long-term opportunity. And it may result in - we certainly wouldn't have benefited and so. Long term we think there's an opportunity for site rental revenues from that business. But we're not anywhere close to putting that inside of the outlook.
Dan Schlanger:
Just adding a little bit to that adding a little bit to that. I think it just further indicates how important having a dense network of fiber is because what edge data centers will ultimately do is try to as Jay was pointing out reduce latency. But in order to do that you have to them connected by fiber so things can move quickly between and among them. And while we have that dense network of fiber there are multiple avenues to generate revenues on it. And the edge data centers just one of them. We think that the more near term ones will likely be in the small cell and the fiber solution side. So we're so excited in what we've invested in is that, as Jay mentioned in his prepared remarks is that owning these assets opens up all of these opportunities for us. And as they come up we will - we'll continue to be I think the best position is to take advantage of them however they evolve.
Jonathan Atkin:
Thank you. And just a quick follow up on the small cell tenancy levels, if you look at sort of in place infrastructure anything in the way of seeing store metrics? Any additional color you could add on to how tenancy levels are growing? Thanks.
Dan Schlanger:
Sure, John. We continue to see lease up on small cells growing at about twice the rate of what we saw and have seen in towers. So the co-location activity continues to be very robust when compared to towers is very, very encouraging. In terms of - I’ve made a passing reference to this, but important to reiterate, the returns that we're seeing as we're adding that co-location does bring the yield into the double-digits exactly in line with our expectations. And some of our older systems that have been there for a while are continuing to see that lease up over time just like what we've seen play out with towers. What has happened at the same time that we're seeing that on the investments that we've made over time is the scale of the opportunity has continued to grow. We started off in small cells and our initial investments and really probably our initial investment thesis was that there going to be pretty a few locations in really dense urban areas where small cells were going to be needed. And so the opportunity to put capital there at attractive returns, I would say, was also small at scale. And what we see today is not just that the returns are coming in as we expected on a small scale, but rather the opportunity is continuing to grow and our ability to win based on our expertise and experience in that market has continued to expand. So we're both excited about the data points that we have, which points to that the business model is performing at least as well as what we had expected when we made the investments. But I think our general excitement is that the opportunity to do that in scale is appearing in much greater scale than what we initially expected.
Jonathan Atkin:
Since you have macro sites in the immediate vicinity of your small cell investments, are you noticing any impacts on the tower business in terms of growth rates?
Dan Schlanger:
We're not seeing any change there. Macro sites continue to be and we believe will always be the lowest cost and most effective way to deploy the network. So to the extent that there's a macro site that can solve the challenge that the carriers have that's their low cost approach to solving that need. But macro sites can solve all of the needs given the increase in data traffic and density of the traffic in specific areas. So I think the best analogy is the macro sites become the overhead lights in the room and small cells become the lamps in the room, where they put a concentration of light in a specific area in order to solve a need. And that's exactly how we're seeing the carriers to deploy these networks. The macro sites in essence become like hub sites upon which the small cells are designed in order to provision enough capacity to meet the demand.
Jonathan Atkin:
Thank you.
Dan Schlanger:
You bet.
Operator:
Thank you. [Operator Instructions] Our next question comes from Brett Feldman with Goldman Sachs.
Brett Feldman:
Two questions the first one is a point of clarification. Jay in your remarks, you talked about your annual dividend per share growth target of 7% to 8%, but the press release does actually introduce the term near term. And so I just wanted to see if you could clarify whether the duration of what you think about that target has shifted at all? And then I have a follow up question.
Jay Brown:
Brett, we got a couple questions last night based on that. We're not quite that sophisticated where none of us I think are yelling at this point. So we were not trying to be cute or clever in the release. We were just trying to point to the fact that some investment stories when teams start to talk about the long-term strategic opportunities in front of them, it's a wait and see story to investors. And we don't believe that's the case with our story. Our story is about the long-term growth opportunity that we're building by the investment in small cells, which we believe creates not just a few years worth of opportunity, but decades of opportunity just like the acquisition of towers did in the late 1990s. And on top of that, investors don't have to wait for those investments to materialize and to exceed the cost of capital, because in the near term there's reward in the form of a growing dividend of 7% to 8%. So I think the word we've used may be the past is foreseeable future that we expect to grow the dividend 7% to 8% for the foreseeable future and that's still the case today. Our goal in my comments in the press release was to just point out the difference between near term and long term. And I think our model in a compelling way provides both the near term, medium term and foreseeable future return of 7% to 8% growing dividend. And at the same time, we're making investments to ensure that there's a long-term growth opportunities in our business.
Brett Feldman:
Thank you for clarifying. So another question that I have is if I think about your commentary about what you're seeing in small cells, it sounds like that the opportunities that may be even bigger than it was when you initially set the target. And the reason I'm bringing it up is that when we look at the sum total of the capital you deploy every year on your CapEx program and on your dividend, it exceeds what you organically generated fund those two uses. And so you have a funding program that you engage in every year both in the equity and the credit markets. And so the question we've gotten is that, if the demand side which is very capital intensive were much bigger than anticipated, at a certain point you have to make a challenging decision to say we would rather prioritize revenue growth as opposed to dividend growth. Or do you think that your funding program could grow with your demand for your assets?
Dan Schlanger:
The short answer is I think our funding program can grow with the demand for the assets. We have a tremendous access to capital in the market. And this is part of the reason going back to the strategy of why we initially put the dividend in place and pay out a substantial portion of our cash flow. Our view on capital is that it's not our capital. This capital belongs to shareholders both the capital in the form of debt and equity. And we like the discipline of coming to the market when the capital investments exceed that of our cash flow. So the vast majority of our cash flow we've returned that in the form of dividends to shareholders and then we come and make the case for why the investment makes sense to raise additional debt and equity as needed over time. We think that's good discipline and it gives us a chance to tell the story as to why that investment opportunity is compelling and should be invested in. So we do think to your point, we do think that the opportunity is continuing to grow. And as that opportunity grows to the extent that we need to increase the sizing of funding, we think the returns are compelling enough that investors will come alongside as they wanted to invest in that future – in that future opportunity. So at this point, we are not in any way limiting the capital spend we're pursuing the opportunities because the returns are compelling and we believe will provide long-term growth and dividends per share which is really where we zero in on how to decide whether or not it's a worth us going out and raising debt and equity to pursue the opportunities.
Brett Feldman:
Great. Thanks for taking the questions.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from Ric Prentiss with Raymond James.
Ric Prentiss:
Thanks. Good morning, guys.
Jay Brown:
Good morning.
Ric Prentiss:
A couple questions. First on the straight line adjustment change was that mostly on the towers side? Or is it coming on the small cell fiber?
Dan Schlanger:
It was mostly on the towers side.
Ric Prentiss:
Okay. And it looks like if we're right on our math that the difference kind of is more like maybe a bonus escalator structure. It looks like the cash benefit you mentioned was 0 in 2018 looks like maybe a couple million in 2019 and then more in 2020 and a lot more in over 2021, 2022. Is that the way we're kind of pushing itself out into the later years as far as the cash benefit?
Dan Schlanger:
Not necessarily. Again, we're not getting into what we negotiated in terms of how the MLA works or what we're going to do specifically with customers. But generally speaking what's happening is we're signing amendments we're signing new leases assuming the term on those as we sign them and at some point though all of that will have a cash impact. So the straight line impact of it will, as it has in the past in the near term the non-cash is greater than the cash. At some point it turns the other way, we just re-extended that and made the near term non-cash look bigger than the cash because we're extending contracts. But I would not get into, how exactly we've structured the economics of the transaction with our customers.
Ric Prentiss:
Okay. And I guess the questions we've gotten from a lot of investors was just then, was is it just a lease term extension or was there just some new business to it? It seems like there might have been some new business as well.
Dan Schlanger:
New amendments and new leasing is new business. I mean, that is what we are trying to point out. This is part of the activity that were seeing that Jay was talking about earlier that we see good activity in 2018 higher than 2017. This is part of that activity. We also just get lease extension for it.
Ric Prentiss:
Okay, cool. And then last question I got is the organic contributed to site rental revenues in the supplement the 5.6%. We got a lot of questions from people on can that go higher? How much higher could it go? What would it take to – could it get above 6%? Could it get above 7%? I understand they will have large numbers. But just as you think about that 5.6% given the upbeat commentary what are the thoughts on where that could go over time?
Dan Schlanger:
I think the answer to your question is yes it could go higher. It's a question of the timing of when we see activity come in and as we're investing in small cells for the timing of when we get those investments in small cells to come on air. So we could see all of that go higher. And we will be optimistic as Jay pointed out that on the small cell side that the opportunity set is growing and that we are very optimistic about what that looks like. Having said that, though trying to compare I think a lot of the question comes from what we've heard historically that tell if you are asking something differently is can we get back to where we were sometime in 2013 or 2014 timeframe? And that question is really hard to answer, because it's more of a question to our customers about how quickly they are going to deploy additional spectrum or densify their networks. And while we think everything looks good and there is what we said historically we see a long runway of growth here we can't tell you exactly what the timing is of all of that and how it plays out especially in comparison to what has been historically.
Jay Brown:
Ric maybe one other thing that I would add to that is, I think one of the things that missed in our model is that people try to find inflection points either to the positive or to the negative and they try to read through some of the commentary from the carriers or equipment manufacturers and try to figure out what the impact to our results in any given calendar year or the next year will be as a result of that. And as I've made the comment in my prepared remarks I've been here for about 20 years now. And my experience has been that there's very little if ever inflection points in our business that almost in every calendar year we've fallen within a band of about 5% or 10% of leasing activity. And so as we look at long term trends which we're really trying to talk to and highlights this morning it gives us confidence that the growth that we're seeing as we talked about kind of $110 million thereabouts in towers and $55 million on small cells and $45 million around fiber, we think the dynamics of the market and what the customers need are set up to continue to deliver that. And so when we've underwritten and talked about kind of our 7% to 8% dividend growth per year for the foreseeable future that's really matched up to this view that within any given year, we think leasing kind of falls within a relatively close band and inflection points are less - are frankly less likely. So I would encourage folks to say look at our story to not to try to pick an inflection point and certainly don't try to look for those in any given quarterly results, but take a longer view. And our view is that the runway of growth here has really been extended much more so than any near term inflection point that might happen on our results.
Ric Prentiss:
That’s really helpful. Obviously a great business, long term sustainable business. Appreciate that color.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from Philip Cusick with JPMorgan.
Philip Cusick:
Hey guys. Thanks for those broken out unit growth numbers. Can you break out CapEx the same way for us?
Dan Schlanger:
Yes. We'll say that it's hard to break out CapEx because the underlying asset is the same asset. So the majority of our CapEx is on the fiber, and so there's probably close to $1.5 billion of our CapEx on the fiber side and about $400 million, $500 million on the towers side. But breaking it out between fiber solutions and small cells really doesn't make sense because it's the same asset being deployed to try to get all of those revenue streams. And as Jay was pointing out earlier in the prepared remarks, really the multiple tenancy is what drives the business. And why we're so excited about it is that we do have the opportunity to add those different revenue streams to a similar asset mix.
Philip Cusick:
Okay. Can you talk about the fiber business? What's the latest with management there? And the first and second quarters were pretty strong for e-rate for a number of people. Do you see anything similar?
Dan Schlanger:
Yes sure. On the light I'm assuming you're referring to the Lightower management team. We did not it's just a reminder we did not model any synergies in that acquisition in terms of cost synergies. And I think our - as I've talked about before we have a great deal of respect for what the team had built and accomplished. And the team of more than 900 people at Lightower is really to be commended for how well they've built that business and we've certainly been the beneficiary of watching them continue to run that business and they're off to a great start as they've joined the Crown team. And as I mentioned earlier, Phil, we're planning to use their platform their expertise and their leadership to really continue to grow the platform and expand it beyond the markets that we're currently in as we grow the tenancy across multiple places that we on the fiber. We had a handful of their executive team that told us they wanted to move on. And so - and they have, but they did a great job of having successors in most cases ready for those positions. And so for the most part, we've had people internally who've been with Lightower for a long period of time including in the sales role and finance role who have stepped up and taken those roles and have done a terrific job. And then we went outside and found somebody with a tremendous amount of operating experience and brought them in that have been at Verizon and Google and Frontier most recently on the operating side in order to beef up our operating expertise. So the team has done an incredible job and they're really to be commended for, how well they've done. And we're really excited about what the opportunity is ahead.
Jay Brown:
Yes. And we talked about Phil, this is a bit of a complex integration because we're trying to get integrate all the fiber assets we have bought previously in the Lightower and Lightower and the Crown Castle. And as Jay mentioned, it's gone as well as we could have expected and the team really should be commended. That is a difficult thing to get done and still deliver on the business plan that we laid out at the beginning of the year. And for all of that to be going as well as it is, I think we're excited about it and optimistic about the future.
Philip Cusick:
Okay. Thanks, guys.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from Matthew Niknam with Deutsche Bank.
Matthew Niknam:
Hey, guys, thank you for taking the question. Just two if I could. One, are there any updates you can share in terms of the pacing of activity or cadence of activity from Sprint and T-Mobile? And then as mentioned before, I know you don't really comment about specific customers, but curious in light of the merger announcement whether you’ve seen any of using a short of change in activity or pacing since the deal was announced? And then secondly just following up on the small cell investments, I think, Dan right now you're sitting at about five turns of leverage. Just wondering if there's any change in the way you think about target leverage and effectively funding these investments between debt and potential equity? Thanks.
Jay Brown:
Matt, on your first question you sort of answered it in your question. I'm not going to comment specifically about T-Mobile and Sprint what their activity is. I'd refer you to them. I'd go back to the comments that we made around both towers and small cells. In the case of towers, our expectation going into the year and that still is the case today, we expect to grow tower revenues of about $110 million this year compared to about $105 million last year. So up about $5 million and that's held consistent both before and after the deal and over the course of this year. And then on the small cell side, last year we grew revenues about $40 million. This year we see about $55 million of contribution from small cells and that's been consistent since the end of last year. So it's going up to high level. We haven't seen any change in the activity over the course of the year. So we feel pretty good about where we are going into the second half of the year.
Dan Schlanger:
Yes. And on your second question around leverage target, our target is still around five times, we ended the quarter around 5.2 times. We believe that the growth in EBITDA over the back half of the year will get us down to that 5 times. And that when we did our equity offering earlier in this year, we had known about what the small cell investments are going to be in size and appropriately to try to make sure that we had the capital locked in to invest at the rates that we knew we could - would match the economics that we had run in our models. And we still believe that's the case. Going forward, depending on what that investment profile looks like, we will be out as Jay pointed out accessing debt and equity capital markets over the course of whatever that debt investment profile looks like going forward to try to maintain that investment grade rating that we have around in the five times leverage position.
Matthew Niknam:
Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from Amir Rozwadowski with Barclays.
Amir Rozwadowski:
Good morning and thanks very much for taking the questions. One of the things that I loved to touch upon is in looking at sort of what the FCC is planning in terms of upcoming spectrum auctions, it seems as though the cadence of the embrace of the industry for millimeter wave spectrum and higher band spectrum has improved versus where it was a couple of years ago. What has been your experience in supporting some of those current deployments? And how should we think about the opportunity set for you folks going forward? Is this more of a small cell opportunity, macro site opportunity? How are you thinking about that opportunity set?
Jay Brown:
Good morning, Amir. I would look at this as we have looked at in many of the options in the past the FCC has gone down the path. There are two things that are really critical in order for us to benefit from. Curious need to have spectrum available and they have to need capital to deploy that spectrum. And millimeter wave in some of the other auctions that are on the drawing board at this point being talked about would represent an opportunity for additional spectrum to get into the hands of operators and our hope would be they end up in the head of operators who have the capital to ultimately deploy them. Specifically to your question around millimeter wave I think the opportunity set there is a combination of both macro sites and small cells. Given the distance that that's going to travel it's likely that the benefit probably goes a little bit more towards small cells than it would macro sites. But ultimately, those business models have to develop and we have to see what it's going to look like and what it's going to be used for in order to answer that question with a lot of precision. But I think generally, we would think that that's likely to the benefit of small cells to a greater degree of macro sites, if you're specifically just looking at millimeter way.
Amir Rozwadowski:
Great. That's very helpful. And then, one of the things that you guys had mentioned in the past is that there's a bit more of a preference today of building out fiber assets versus acquiring additional fiber assets, because of the asset quality that you're looking to deploy. If we think about that whether that's the reach breadth of the fiber or the strands per line how do you believe that that will play out in terms of a competitive differentiator going forward. It does seem as though you're getting more and more opportunities for co-location as you mentioned sort of returns have been better than expected. So really trying to think about, if we fast forward a couple of years, do you believe that that ultimately will prove to be a competitive differentiator for the fiber business?
Jay Brown:
Yes. Two things come to mind. First of all, one of the strict investment criteria that we've looked at is we want the fiber that we acquire to be dense, urban high capacity fiber. And as we look at the universe of opportunities, as we've mentioned in several occasions and you've referenced in your question, we really don't see a large opportunity set in the market to acquire. There are some markets were maybe we can find a tuck-in acquisition or two. But we don't see a large opportunity set there to go out and acquire it, so which means that as we think about the growth in the business and opportunities that we we're talking about we believe most of that fiber will be a result of fiber that we've built organically and construct over time. And I think the opportunity there is going to be, as I mentioned earlier in my comments in markets that go beyond just kind of the top 25 markets. As I think about the competitive dynamic there, the opportunity just like it's been in towers obviously the department cycle as long as we talked about 18 months to 24 months to deploy small cells a long cycle to deploy fiber and there's a limited aspect of it in the market today. So there's a real benefit to the customer of sharing that infrastructure. And I don't see any scenario where the cost to construct comes down dramatically from where it is today such that the shared model is not the lowest cost alternative. So our job day-in and day-out here at Crown Castle is to provide infrastructure at a much lower cost to our customers than what they could do on their own. And I don't see anything in either the near term or the long-term that really changes that dynamic. So taking an asset that has an enormous amount of value and then bringing it to customers with solutions that offer them a much lower cost than what constructing it themselves would be I think is a path to success for us that will be sustainable over a long period.
Dan Schlanger:
And to your competitive dynamic point, I think we have focused on that dense high capacity urban fiber in the top markets, because we do believe that having that capacity early on will position us best to get the most out of the market going forward. And we think that we are in a very good competitive position, because we do have fiber assets in 23 of the top 25 markets. And as Jay pointed out, we think they will continue to expand. But we see a lot of benefit for being the first mover in those markets and having the expertise that we have to deliver small cells on that fiber. So we feel good about where that – how that positions us competitively in those markets and then going forward.
Amir Rozwadowski:
Thanks very much for the incremental color.
Dan Schlanger:
Sure.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from Colby Synesael with Cowen and Company.
Colby Synesael:
Great. Thank you. Two if I may. First one, you talked a lot about how you're seeing all four carriers spending heavily now on small cells. And I just wanted to go back to small cells versus macro in terms of the spend. I appreciate you said that they need both in use the Light example to show that. But when you think of the incremental spend in terms of dollars are you seeing more of a shifting to small and I would assume that at the expense of macro towers? Because from my understanding or just looking at the CapEx budgets of the carriers they're still holding back on raising their actual CapEx budget. So it would just seem natural to assume then that if they're spending more on small cells they're spending less on macros incremental go forward basis despite I would agree to the fact that they need both longer term. I'm just trying to get some color on that. And secondly, just from a modeling perspective network services revenue again was low. I know you commented and mentioned in the press release that that will go up. But I was wondering, if you can just give us any color there particularly around I think it was network services with fiber it's been down the last two quarters results what we saw in 2017. And are you positioned to give us some color what total network services revenue should be for 2018? Thank you.
Jay Brown:
Sure, Colby. On your first question around small cells versus macro sites, the incremental spend from the carriers, I obviously I can't speak across the entire industry. So I can really only speak to what we've seen with our assets. The spend on macro sites is up year-over-year when compared to 2017 and 2017 was up from 2016. So at least with regard to the 40000 towers that we have those were largely predominantly focused in the top 100 markets in the US. The carriers spend and the investment in macro sites to further improve their networks has actually grown over the last several years. We're not seeing anything that would suggest that that dynamic is going to change. At the same time, the carriers have obviously significantly increased the amount of spend that they're having in small cells. So the growth rates there over the last several years are well in excess of the growth rates that we've seen on macro sites. So I don't know that it's to the detriment of towers because towers have continued to grow, but it is a fair point that there has been a meaningful allocation of their capital dollars and network improvement focus that is going to small cells. And we think that that focus on small cells is going to continue to increase particularly geographically and density wise in the markets that they've already deployed those.
Dan Schlanger:
Yes. And Colby I'll take on your second question on the services. We don't guide specifically to services, so I won't tell you exactly what it is. But clearly we think the second half is going to be bigger than the first half. It really is the only way that you can get into the EBITDA guidance that we have given. So the second quarter reduction in services we do think it's just timing and it is pushing out into the second half of the year. And I don't know exactly under fiber side there's very little service revenue associated with the fiber side, so that may bounce around here and there. But I wouldn't take trends out of that just because of the small sample set.
Colby Synesael:
Okay. Great. Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from Walter Piecyk with BTIG.
Walter Piecyk:
Thanks. Hey Jay, I want to go back to your answers to Ric's last question in terms of trying to figure out inflection points. I mean I think it was North Carolina you were talking about maybe the industry to a point of adding a couple hundred thousand small cells a year. Just got up and go where now I think you just as a company are probably having 10000 to 15000 range with whatever market share you got. So we look at that and then you hear Verizon talk very aggressively about small cells as a capacity solution then you look at the radius of the small cell and you apply that to the 15000 at your market share and then the square mileage that's just in the top 20 markets. And then we kind of factor in what you talked about in terms of 12 to 18 month time frame or 18 to 24 month time frame. So it seems like a kind of put all these things together if Verizon is actually doing what they're saying they're doing in terms of a really aggressive fiber build then you're going to have that visibility to let us know when that inflection point is. So if we look at your small cells this year, 55 new versus 40 last year doesn't necessarily show the inflection point, but maybe can give us a better sense of when that inflection point is going to hit based on what Verizon has been saying in terms of the aggression and using densification for their capacity needs?
Jay Brown:
Yes, Walt. I guess we're sitting here in July of 2018. So I'm not going to give you 2019 and 2020 guidance. But your point is well taken and all of the comments that I've been trying to make this morning and Dan echoed in some of his comments is that the opportunity set is certainly growing. And we are - we believe based on what we've seen thus far the returns that we've seen it would suggest that as Verizon and other carriers, I don't want to just single out Verizon in this conversation, although, they have been very public and very bullish in terms of what the opportunity is. I believe that's true for all of the carriers and the need is there for all of the carriers and all of them are using a small cells and that opportunity set is continuing to grow. And given the returns that we see in the business we want to continue to pursue that. So I'm not at a place this morning where I want to give specific numbers around how much we think will capture and what that revenue growth will be like in future years. But it is fair to say that that's the trajectory there is towards higher levels of activity than what we've seen in the last couple of years around small cells. The inflection point that I'm really trying to make is that's a trajectory of growth that could be sustainable over a period of time. The point I was trying to make in Rick's comment was more towards the changes that happened quarter-to-quarter are generally not nearly as pronounced as the market tends to fear they are or believed to the positive they're going to impact numbers. They’re tends to be a much longer smoother curve than kind of the volatile inflection point that sometimes are looked for in our business model.
Walter Piecyk:
Understood. I guess it is difficult for all of us given what Verizon has said that we're thinking there is going to be quarter-to-quarter lift and it never seems to happen. My second question is on prepaid. Is the expectation that prepaid is going to increase - the prepaid rent is going to increase $40 million. I think the way you described this in the past is it will increase the same this year as it did last year and I think that equated to $40 million. Is that still the number for 2018?
Jay Brown:
Yes. That's still the number for 2018. Just to be fulsome about that though we also added from Lightower acquisition an additional $40 million on top of that. So it looks like $80 million in total, but the number you're trying to isolate is how much the prepaid rent grow on the business, it was about – yes, it's about $40 million this year.
Walter Piecyk:
And most of that is going to be in the fiber business, right? So if we look at the 55 and the 45 that substantially most of that 40 or let's call it 30 is going to be in the fiber/small cell business, right? So the true new leasing activity would basically be the 100 minus that 30 or 40 from prepaid?
Jay Brown:
It will be in the fiber business. I think that's all true leasing activity, but it is the majority of that $40 million will be in the fiber business, yes.
Walter Piecyk:
Got it. Thank you very much.
Jay Brown:
Yep.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from Spencer Kurn with New Street Research.
Spencer Kurn:
Hey, guys. Thanks for taking the question. Just wanted to follow up on the commentary around the services ramp - the network services ramp for the back half of the year. Your guidance implies a really sharp sequential increase in the fourth quarter. Should we look at that as sort of leading or coincide all indicator of leasing activity or is that just simply the timing of how it flowed in this year?
Jay Brown:
It's both the timing of how it flowed in this year. And this generally what we see in the business as the fourth quarter is a high quarter in terms of services. So it's something that we've seen historically and we expect to happen this year. In terms of the second question is, can you look through that and try to find an indicator of what the new leasing activity is? It's not really a one for one type of correlation there. So I wouldn't take it necessarily that is an indicator that things are changing or not, it's just the way that the timing of the services revenue is coming into 2018 is a big sequential jump in the fourth quarter.
Spencer Kurn:
Got it. And just one more question if I may. We keep hearing that backlog in activity levels are rising, but it hasn't really flown through to organically seeing revenue growth in a material way this year. Could you just provide a little bit of context on how your backlog as it stands today compare relative to prior years? And how that sort of - how the backlog is trending overall?
Jay Brown:
Sure. Spencer, maybe going up to really high level on that question. From a tower standpoint, typically when we get an application from the time we get an application to when we get on air that revenue stream depending on whether it's an amendment or are new ways, it's somewhere between about three to five months and as long as about nine to 12 months. That's true on the tower side. On the small cell side which is we've spent the last several quarters talking more about the backlog there that's generally an 18 month to 24 month cycle from the time that we have the commitment until the time the small cell fiber is built and we're then on air and generating revenue. I wouldn't dismiss though the growth that we saw. I mean going from $40 million to $55 million is a significant growth rate in the organic revenue. Now admittedly this activity in 2018 correlates all the way back to activity that in many cases was signed during calendar year 2016. And we've made comments publicly in multiple occasions that in the first quarter of 2018 we signed it many nodes, contracted nodes of new bookings in that first quarter as we did in all of calendar year 2016. So that portends activity that is 18 months to 24 months from now. And as we continue to do that activity in bookings we're continuing to kind of - sort of push that cycle out another 18 months to 24 months. So we have good visibility in terms of what's [Indiscernible] results. You can see the benefit of the last couple of years of activity that we've seen and we signed up and that's already starting to generate revenue and cash flows in line with what we had expected.
Spencer Kurn:
Got it. Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from Batya Levi with UBS.
Batya Levi:
Great. Thank you. Just a few follow ups. First on Lightower. Can you provide more color on the trends that you're seeing from demand from the enterprise segments? And if there's any change in the trend that you had expected? And also just SG&A has gone up to about 9% of revenues, how should we think about that on an ongoing basis? Thank you.
Jay Brown:
On your first question, we continue to see great activity in line with what we expected from enterprise clients. As I made comments earlier in the call, we think we're going to continue to grow that business, not just in the markets that we're in currently, but in markets beyond those markets as we utilize fiber that today is in locations that would be very attractive for enterprises and large hospitals, government universities et cetera. And we're in the process of continuing to pursue that. But Lightower is tracking where we had expected. As we've talked about in the past, we expect churn in the high single digits there and then that's basically been our experience over time and it's playing out there. So we have been changed our expectation there and things that has performed basically in line with what we expected.
Dan Schlanger:
And on your second question Batya on SG&A. We have increased SG&A as we have invested in productive capacity of our business particularly around small cells. So as we've talked about and the question that was just asked by Spencer a second ago is what does the growth look like. While we were a couple of years, ago a few years ago in the position of putting on 5,000, 6,000, 7,000 small cells per year now we're in a position on putting on somewhere 10,000 and 15,000 small cells per year and that takes investment. And that's why it is growing and why we are so actually - we are excited about that growth because it's allowing us to achieve the strategic goal that we're looking forward to positioning our company to take advantage of what small cell growth going forward. From here we think that we are in that 10,000 to 15,000 small cell nodes per year range and that's about where our backlog would dictate us to be. And therefore, we feel like we're in the right spot. To the extent that we grow even more we may have to even invest more in SG&A. But again we think that would be a good news story because that would just say that overall market is growing substantially and it's something that we would be looking out to try to take advantage of. So our historical investments have gotten us this far and we think that going forward we can stay where we are or pretty close to it. But to the extent that we get more activity levels we might need to invest more in our business.
Batya Levi:
And you had also mentioned that you didn't include any synergies from these acquisitions. So could there be some relief on that going forward?
Jay Brown:
Batya I don't see as cutting our way to growth in the business. So I think we're more likely to be hiring individuals and growing the business rather than finding cost synergies. The opportunity here around revenue synergies and growing revenues from both small cells and the enterprise business that you asked about and other solutions there we think is enormous. And so we're going to - if it plays out the way we believe, we're much more likely to be talking about additional revenue synergies rather than finding cost synergy.
Batya Levi:
Got it. Thank you.
Jay Brown:
You bet.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from Robert Gutman with Guggenheim Partners.
Robert Gutman:
Hi. Thanks for taking the question. You're taking a $33 million charge next quarter according to guidance for retirement of long-term obligations at $107 million for the year. I just want to make sure does that refer to, is that based on debt refinancing? Or does that refer to asset retirement obligations?
Dan Schlanger:
Those are the debt refinancing costs that were incurred by extending the maturities that we've talked about.
Robert Gutman:
Okay. That's all I had. Thanks.
Dan Schlanger:
Sure.
Operator:
Thank you. Our last question comes from Tim Horan with Oppenheimer.
Tim Horan:
Thanks, guys. Jay, could you just maybe give the backlog on the fiber business either the dollar amount or small cell? And how it compared to a year ago? Because I mean, all your comments or implying that we are seeing an acceleration of revenue growth next year and year after I know you're not looking to give specific guidance. But your commentary around, how strong the bookings have been which kind of suggest that, just any more color I think that's what everyone's kind of asking at the end of the day? And I just had a quick follow up.
Jay Brown:
Yes, Tim. Again I don't want to get into giving specific guidance for 2019 and 2020. I think this is why the conversation is so helpful for us to put the target out there in terms of what we think the dividend growth is going to be 7% to 8%. And we believe on an annual basis of growth of dividends per share, we believe we can achieve that dividend growth per share on an annual basis inclusive of the cost of the capital associated with the growing opportunity that we're seeing. So that extending the long-term growth and I think the best way to think about it in the current term and in the coming years is to think about and expect from us that we'll be able to grow the dividend 7% to 8% on an annual basis. And then as we get closer to kind of events where we're starting to recognize the revenue I think we'll be a little clearer on what opportunity is. And as we have in the past good news as we sit here in July is you're only a few months away from us giving our 2019 outlook which we typically do in October and our planning on doing that again this year as we have done in the past. So we'll update you in October and what we're seeing for 2019.
Tim Horan:
And then just lastly I know we touched on this. But clearly it makes a lot more sense to share infrastructure. But Verizon seems to be wanting to build out a lot more of their own and to a degree AT&T. Verizon is passing optical technology. That looks like we'll try to converge wireline and wireless networks together. I guess the question is do you think that you've totally convinced the carriers that it makes a lot more sense to outsource? And it would seem to make financial sense but may be is there a point using some new passive optical technologies or really integrating wireless or wireline in ways that it makes more sense for them to do themselves? Thanks.
Jay Brown:
I think you're going to see all of the carriers build some components of their needed small cell networks themselves. And we certainly don't believe while we're the clear leader at the moment and believe that we're best positioned to capture significant opportunities in the future. I certainly don't believe we're going to capture anywhere close to 100% of those opportunities. And the model that we've underwritten and are pursuing does not assume that we capture anywhere close to 100% of the opportunities. So I think you will continue to see the carriers invest in their own small cells and deploy them themselves. I think you also have other infrastructure providers who enter the space as the market continues to develop the omni top 25 markets and beyond the NFL cities, as I was making the point earlier. I think it's likely that you'll see other folks who see the returns that we've been able to achieve and want to invest and enter that business as a third party infrastructure. I would agree with the part of your question where you note the convergence of wireless and wireline and it's fundamental frankly to our investment thesis that there's a real convergence going on between wireless and wireline. And an integral part of that convergent is for fiber. And our investments have positioned us both in terms of the tower investments that we've made as well as the more recent fiber investments that we've made have really positioned us at the very leading edge of that convergence and what next generation communication networks are going to look like. So we believe the opportunity here at Crown Castle is compelling because it's the opportunity to not only get the benefit of the really long term growth and opportunity that's there but also get a benefit on an annual basis of growing the dividend 7% to 8%. So appreciate the questions. Great way to end the call.
Tim Horan:
Thank you.
Operator:
At this time speakers we have no more questions. I'll turn them back to you for closing remarks.
Jay Brown:
Okay. Thanks everyone for joining the call this morning. We look forward to talking to you in the coming days.
Operator:
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference. You may now disconnect.+
Executives:
Ben Lowe – Vice President of Corporate Finance Jay Brown – Chief Executive Officer Dan Schlanger – Chief Financial Officer
Analysts:
Brett Feldman – Goldman Sachs Simon Flannery – Morgan Stanley David Barden – Bank of America Jonathan Atkin – RBC Capital Markets Ric Prentiss – Raymond James Matthew Niknam – Deutsche Bank Nick Del Deo – MoffettNathanson Michael Rollins – Citi Walter Piecyk – BTIG Amy Yong – Macquarie Robert Gutman – Guggenheim Securities Spencer Kurn – New Street Research Tim Horan – Oppenheimer Phil Cusick – JPMorgan Brandon Lee Nispel – KeyBanc Capital Markets
Operator:
Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Crown Castle International First Quarter 2018 Earnings Call. Today’s conference is being recorded. At this time, I’d like to turn the conference over to Ben Lowe, Vice President of Corporate Finance. Please go ahead.
Ben Lowe:
Great. Thank you, Hannah, and good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us today as we review our first quarter 2018 results. With me on the call this morning are Jay Brown, Crown Castle’s Chief Executive Officer; and Dan Schlanger, Crown Castle’s Chief Financial Officer. To aid the discussion, we have posted supplemental materials in the Investors section of our website at crowncastle.com, which we will refer to throughout the call this morning. This call will contain forward-looking statements, which are subject to certain risks, uncertainties and assumptions, and actual results may vary materially from those expected. Information about potential factors which could affect our results is available in the press release and the Risk Factors sections of the Company’s SEC filings. Our statements are made as of today, April 19, 2018, and we assume no obligations to update any forward-looking statements. In addition, today’s call includes discussions of certain non-GAAP financial measures. Tables reconciling these non-GAAP financial measures are available in the supplemental information package in the Investors section of the Company’s website at crowncastle.com. With that, I will turn the call over to Jay.
Jay Brown:
Thanks, Ben, and good morning, everyone. As you saw from our press release last night, we delivered another great quarter of solid results, and 2018 remains on track to be another great year for Crown Castle, which Dan will discuss in greater detail in a few minutes. I’d like to spend my time highlighting three themes we are seeing in the business, which are noted on Slide 3
Dan Schlanger:
Thanks, Jay, and good morning, everyone. As Jay discussed, our unique portfolio of assets positions us to take advantage of the positive fundamentals underlying our business. In the near to medium-term, we continue to expect higher new leasing activity in each of towers, small cells and fiber solutions in 2018 as compared to last year. Supporting this view, we recently signed comprehensive leasing agreements with several of our largest customers that lead us to believe we’re in the early stages of a sustained period of investment by those customers. Additionally, we’ve continued to win substantial small cell bookings, which have added to our pipeline and more than replaced the nodes we have put on air. And we continue to invest heavily in new fiber and small cell assets that set us up well for future growth. As a result, we remain well positioned to build on our track record of delivering compelling total returns to our shareholders through a combination of dividends, new investments and growth. Turning to first quarter 2018 results. As you can see on Slide 5, we had an outstanding first quarter, exceeding the high end of guidance for site rental revenues, adjusted EBITDA and AFFO. Part of this outperformance was a result of two items that were not contemplated in our prior outlook. First, site rental revenues and adjusted EBITDA benefited from approximately $12 million of non-cash revenues associated with the long-term agreements signed with AT&T. Second, AFFO benefited from approximately $11 million of lower sustaining capital expenditures due to timing as those expenditures are now expected to occur later this year. Even adjusting for the impact of these two items, we were able to exceed the midpoint of our prior outlook for site rental revenues, adjusted EBITDA and AFFO. From a balance sheet perspective, we continue to improve our financial flexibility while focusing on maintaining our investment-grade credit profile. During the first quarter, we accessed both the debt and equity markets to reduce our leverage, proactively extend maturities and reduce our borrowing costs. We finished the quarter at 5.1 times debt-to-EBITDA and intend to finance the business with approximately five turns of leverage longer-term. Now turning to Slide 6. As you can see in the chart on the left-hand side of the page, we increased our full year 2018 outlook for site rental revenues by $57 million, which is primarily attributable to this recently signed customer agreements. As we discussed during our last earnings call, our prior 2018 outlook included all the new leasing activity we expected to see from our customers other than what might occur due to the deployment of FirstNet. While we do anticipate an incremental new leasing activity as a result of FirstNet over the course of the next several years, the timing of new leasing in 2018 will not result in significant incremental revenues this year. Therefore, we have not increased our expectations for new leasing activity in 2018, although we have included the straight-line revenues associated with the AT&T agreement in our updated outlook. Turning to the middle chart on the page. You can see we have increased our full year 2018 outlook for adjusted EBITDA by $48 million, which reflects the impact of the recently signed customer agreements, partially offset by higher anticipated expenses related to the increased activity we are seeing in our business. Finally, as you can see in the chart on the right-hand side of the page, we have increased our 2018 outlook for AFFO by $36 million. This increase is mostly due to the impacts from our March equity offering and lower expected cash taxes, partially offset by the higher anticipated expenses that are impacting adjusted EBITDA as well as an increase in expected floating interest rates when compared to the rates assumed in our prior outlook. Taking all of this into account, the outlook for AFFO per share remains unchanged at approximately $5.50 at the midpoint. Turning to Slide 7. We expect between $970 million and $1.015 billion in site rental revenue growth from 2017 to 2018. As you can see on the slide, when compared to the prior outlook, the only change is reflected in the floating bar from – third from the left on the page, namely an increase of $60 million related to the expected change in straight-line revenues that I just discussed. Moving on to Slide 8. We now expect between $395 million and $435 million in AFFO growth from 2017 to 2018. The only changes when compared to the prior outlook are captured in the other category that covers non-operating items, including changes to interest expense and cash taxes. In conclusion, first quarter 2018 was another quarter of strong financial and operating performance. For the remainder of 2018, we continue to expect higher new leasing activity across our business. And the recent comprehensive agreements we have signed with several of our customers suggest we are in the early days of a sustained period of investment by those customers. Momentum continues within our fiber business following a quarter in which we booked as many small cells as we did in all of 2016, and we’re making very good progress on integrating our recent fiber acquisitions. All of this supports our goal of increasing our dividend per share by 7% to 8% per year while positioning us for the large potential upside created by 5G that Jay just discussed. With that, Hannah, I’d like to open the call to questions.
Operator:
Thank you. [Operator Instructions] We’ll go first to Brett Feldman with Goldman Sachs.
Brett Feldman:
Thanks for taking the question. I was hoping I could dig in a little bit to some of these moving parts in your guidance. You talked about the higher OpEx. I was hoping you could clarify what’s driving that. Is that unique to the AT&T agreement? Is it more broadly driven by the larger funnel that you have? And then just in general, when are we going to get some visibility into being at a point of sustained level of site operating expenses such that we’ll get a little bit more operating leverage as you grow the business? And then just one quick question we got is, why was your 1Q revenue affected by the new AT&T agreement? I think that was signed after the quarter ended.
Dan Schlanger:
Sure, Brett. Thanks for the questions. So the higher OpEx is related to the bigger pipeline of small cells as we continue to build out that pipeline and increase it and increase the velocity of that. We do have to add some OpEx to continue to add to our capabilities to deliver on those nodes. And to your point of when will we see some visibility and when it will kind of slow down, the increase will slow down, it really depends on how quickly we book nodes. If we continue to see increases in the activity levels, we would likely see increases in the OpEx. But we think those are more than made up for by the incremental revenues we’re going to make over time. I think the issue that we’ve pointed to in the past is that many times, the capital and the OpEx come before the revenues, and that’s kind of what you’re seeing here. And then
Brett Feldman:
AT&T.
Dan Schlanger:
The AT&T deal, yes, just – it was signed in time for us to get the impact economically into the first quarter. So the reason it impacted our first quarter is because it had an impact on what our revenues were in the first quarter. So there’s no specifics around that other than it impacted our first quarter.
Brett Feldman:
Okay, got it. And if you don’t mind, one last question, just a housekeeping one. Since we have news again on T-Mobile and Sprint, do you have any updated disclosure on your exposure? I know you’ve given that a little over a year ago. Thanks for taking my questions.
Dan Schlanger:
I think you can see in the supplement that T-Mobile is around 19% and Sprint around 14% of our total revenues at this point. The disclosure we gave last time was around how much – when they were both on one tower, overlapping towers, that number is around 5% of our revenues, taking into account the churn that we already assumed in our forecast and talked about from acquired networks.
Brett Feldman:
And do you know their weighted average remaining lease term on that 5%?
Dan Schlanger:
Yes. They’re five years to seven years.
Brett Feldman:
Great. Thanks for taking my questions. Appreciate it.
Dan Schlanger:
Sure.
Operator:
We’ll go next to Simon Flannery with Morgan Stanley.
Simon Flannery:
Great. Thanks very much. Good morning. On the commentary about the accelerating leasing, I think given what you said about FirstNet and so forth, is it fair to think that during the course of 2018, we’ll see an acceleration in your leasing activity and then that would set up for 2019 to be better than 2018? And maybe related to that, are we now at the point where all four, all big four of the wireless carriers are now spending at a fairly steady clip? Or is there still some more to come from getting everybody onboard? Thanks.
Jay Brown:
Thanks, Simon. To your first question, I’d point out two things. First of all, as we look at calendar year 2018 and the guidance that we provided for 2018, it is an acceleration already over the levels that we saw in 2017. And we’re seeing that across all components of the business. On the towers side, the wireless carriers this year are doing much more on macro sites than what they did last year. And then on the fiber side, both from solutions as well as from small cells, we’re seeing an uplift in the amount of incremental revenues that we’re adding across the fiber assets this year as compared to last year. So all components are already up in the outlook that we’re giving. More certainly, in the comments about the accelerating leasing environment, I certainly intend to capture that movement from 2017 to 2018 in the way that I spoke about it. I think it’s also the case that as we look at what’s happening in the broader environment, both longer-term, as I talked about, from a 5G standpoint. So some of the customer leasing agreements that we signed and the activity that we’re seeing around the business, that portends an increase from where we are. Now I would caution you in answering that question that oftentimes, in our business, people look for inflection points, and they look for some – in any given quarter, whether there’s going to be this meaningful step in leasing and activity. And my experience – I’ve been at Crown since 1999, and I have found those inflection points to be very rare, both for the positive and to the negative. And as I look at the landscape and what we’re seeing, what I see suggests a very long runway of sustained investment and growth in our business. And that’s what gives us confidence around our 7% to 8% growth in the dividends per share over a long period of time because there are a lot of components that look like we’ve got greater visibility and increasing leasing. So we’re trying to take a balanced view and say, over a long period of time, we feel pretty good about the 7% to 8%. And I think what we’re saying today and reflecting in both the comments and the press release as well as our prepared comments is that I think we’re more confident about what that growth looks like over a longer period of time, and so I think that’s there. The last thing, in answer to your second question around all four of the carriers, we are seeing activity from all four of the carriers. In any given quarter, it certainly varies in terms of how much we see from any one carrier. But we’re seeing activity across macro sites and small cells from all four of the wireless carriers and believe, based on the recent customer agreements that we’ve signed as well as the activity that we’re seeing from them, that we’re going to go through a period here where we do see activity from all four operators for a sustained period of time.
Simon Flannery:
Thank you.
Operator:
We’ll go next to David Barden with Bank of America.
David Barden:
Hey, guys. Thanks for taking the questions. I guess, first, to you, Dan, with respect to kind of the new agreements that you’ve signed from the "several of the big customers," could you talk about the terms and conditions that go around those? Or is there anything novel about those agreements that would lead one to kind of change a view about what their potential impact on the business could be? And then second, could you talk a little bit about maybe how the AT&T tower purchase agreement, which gave a free RAD Center to AT&T, on a go-forward basis, is affecting your ability to maybe monetize AT&T’s activity level or how that factored into the agreement that was released last week and just generally kind of characterize how you think that it affects your ability to monetize FirstNet and AT&T? Thanks.
Jay Brown:
Sure. On your first question, I don’t believe there is anything novel, really, here. We approached these agreements in the same way that we’ve done them in the past, same core principles in mind. We’re trying to help our customers identify solutions that help them improve their networks and do those both cost-effectively and efficiently in terms of time while not compromising our ability to capture the appropriate economics in the business. I believe in all cases, the transactions that we’ve done over the last year or so, those have enabled us to realize at least as much value as what we otherwise would have if we had just gone kind of a one at a time. So I don’t believe there’s anything new or novel associated with the agreements. I think we’re running the same play that we’ve run for 20 years, being thoughtful about the value of the asset and the value that they’re using on those assets and then providing a shared model that drives both our returns and is a cost-effective way for them to deploy network. On the second question, specifically, that agreement, obviously, was publicly filed when we announced that transaction. We didn’t provide a free RAD Center to AT&T, and so I’m not sure the nature of that question. But what I would say holistically, going back to kind of my first comments, would be that, again, as we thought about it, we thought about valuation, value of the towers and small cells and what that would look like over time and believe we’ve realized at least as much value as we otherwise would have if we had just gone one at a time.
David Barden:
And so, Jay, if I could just follow-up on that kind of comprehensive nature or holistic nature of these agreements, so are these agreements less activity-related and more kind of anticipatory, they kind of ratchet up at some known quantity over a course of time and then customers are able to do what they want to do within Banburismus over that period within those time buckets?
Jay Brown:
Dave, I don’t think I want to get into the specifics of how we structured them. Again, there was really two driving goals hearing the conversation from the carrier side. They were looking for time and certainty around the cost of deployments and what they saw in front of them. And then we need to realize appropriate economic value for the use of the asset, and we’re open to being flexible about how we accomplish those two goals based on each customer’s needs. And I would expect we’ll continue to do that into the future as we’ve done in the past.
David Barden:
Okay, thanks, guys.
Operator:
We’ll go next to Jonathan Atkin with RBC Capital Markets.
Jonathan Atkin:
Yes. So following up on that last topic, I was a bit surprised that the term didn’t seem to change if you look at the weighted average remaining contract length with the customer for your most recent MOA, AT&T, and wondering what the thought process there was. I would have expected it to kind of extend a bit. And then can you clarify – you mentioned it’s kind of holistic. Is there a change in the base escalator with that customer or not? Thanks.
Jay Brown:
Sure, Jon. On your first question, again, I would go back to kind of the holistic comment. If you look at our tower business and small cell business over a long period of time, there is very, very low churn in that business. And so while someone might look at the contractual terms of those agreements, I would tend to look at the way we’ve looked at the business over a long period of time and believe that, that infrastructure is going to be there long after the current expiry of the current term in which they’re in. And so at times, the carriers have desired to extend maturities, and other times, they haven’t. And I think the two guiding principles that I mentioned are the way that we would think about the agreement and we’ll be flexible with customers, depending on what their desires are. Secondly, in terms of the change of escalator, we did not change the base escalator in the agreements that we signed with customers. So as we thought about components of the agreements, we certainly believe that’s a very valuable component of the leasing exchange that’s done for the assets and the underlying value of the assets. And so that did not change as a part of these agreements.
Jonathan Atkin:
Thank you. And then turning to the fiber segment. Can you give us a little bit of a flavor or the breakout now that you have Lightower between enterprise and mobile infrastructure within that segment?
Dan Schlanger:
Between – Jon, are you asking between enterprise and small cells? Is that what you’re asking?
Jonathan Atkin:
Yes, yes.
Dan Schlanger:
Okay, yes. It’s about 75% fiber solutions and 25% small cells within the fiber segment.
Jonathan Atkin:
Thank you.
Operator:
We’ll go next to Ric Prentiss with Raymond James.
Ric Prentiss:
Thanks, good morning, guys.
Jay Brown:
Good morning.
Ric Prentiss:
Couple of questions. Looking at the change in guidance, it looks like – I think you mentioned $60 million change in the straight-line adjustment in 2018. It looks like that drops to about a $40 million change year-over-year from prior view in 2019 and about $20 million change view-to-view on 2020. So it looks like kind of $20 million improvement as we look out 2018, 2019, 2020. Can we use that as a ballpark measure maybe of saying if you’re doing $3 billion-plus of tower revenue and maybe the cash benefit might be like 60 bps a year for long foreseeable future based on the long runway you talked about? Just trying to think if that math works back that way.
Jay Brown:
Ric, I think there’s a couple of components of this that – first, I would basically affirm where you’re, I think, directionally trying to take the question around. It certainly gets greater certainty to the – our expectation of growth over time, and that’s really consistent with the comments that we’re making. I would probably caution anyone from quarter-to-quarter movements of trying to draw too many inferences five or six years from now because there’s obviously a number of components that affect that. How many small cell nodes we turn on in the quarter, what is the leasing activity in any given quarter can obviously move – can move those numbers along with these, as we were talking about before, some of the customer agreements that we signed. But I think the directional nature of your question, I would affirm and say, yes, we’ve increased the certainty of growth around our business. And in addition to the kind of the certainty component, I think we’re also seeing activity that would suggest a sustained increased level of activity in the business over the foreseeable future.
Dan Schlanger:
And Ric, as Jay pointed out earlier, I think – sorry to interrupt, but just as Jay pointed out earlier, I think all of this gives us just more confidence in our ability to continue to grow our dividend over time. As we are signing these agreements, we are moving from what is potential new activity to contracted new activity, and that provides a greater level, as you just said, level of certainty around the business that we have.
Ric Prentiss:
Okay. And then on the carrier getting kind of speed, right? AT&T wanted to get more speed and certainty. Can you talk to us a little bit about the time frame from lease application to turning into revenue?
Jay Brown:
Sure. Generally, on the tower side, it’s six to nine months it takes us from the time we get an application until we have it on air. It will be on the shorter end of that for amendments and longer end if we’re doing a brand-new co-location on an existing tower. In the small cells, we’ve given the average of 18 to 24 months after the booking occurs in some geographies. Depending on how difficult it is to get it up, it would be longer than that. In places where it’s a co-location, in a market that we’ve done a lot of work in, it may be on the shorter side of that. So it’s a mix, but I think somewhere in the 18 to 24 months is the right time line to use for small cells and six to nine months is the best time line to use for towers.
Ric Prentiss:
And one quick housekeeping. Do you see – is there going to be an equity raise at the market in April? And is that in your guidance, not in your guidance? And there’s some confusion out there given the March equity raise.
Dan Schlanger:
Yes. So we did the March equity raise. That obviously is in our guidance. We filed an aftermarket program, but that does not speak to whether we will actually use that or not in any given period. It gives us the ability to go out and market equity. What we said after the March deal was it got us down to what was really close to our target leverage rate range. And as we move out through 2018, we’ll continue to add EBITDA and have capital expenditures that are all included in what we have given as outlook. And we think that we are comfortable with where our leverage profile is now.
Ric Prentiss:
Okay. So it’s not like we’re expecting an April offering right now, it’s just an aftermarket filed out there, so it’s available for when you want to do it?
Dan Schlanger:
That is what that filing does for us, yes.
Ric Prentiss:
And so obviously not in guidance then.
Dan Schlanger:
Yes. So we have – just to be clear on what we do with guidance, when we think about the guidance going forward, it has a lot of assumptions about how we finance the business, and we try to be very consistent with that over time. Where we are in guidance now, as we pointed out, is that some of the guidance change that happened was because we did the March equity, and it reduced the interest expense but it increased the share count. So I think where we are with guidance now at $5.50 is inclusive of all the financing activity that we anticipate.
Ric Prentiss:
Great. Thanks, Dan. Thanks, Jay.
Dan Schlanger:
Thanks, Ric.
Operator:
We’ll go next to Matthew Niknam with Deutsche Bank.
Matthew Niknam:
Hey, guys. Thank you for taking the questions. Just two on fiber and small cells. One, can you give us any more color on what drove the increase in your small cell pipeline up to 30,000? Particularly, was it one specific customer or more broad-based? And then secondly, on fiber, I think you mentioned maybe considering more organic builds in fiber just given the opportunity. Is this within your existing top 25 markets? Or is this maybe beginning to branch out a little bit more broadly? Thanks.
Jay Brown:
Sure. Thanks, Matthew. On the first question, the pipeline was driven by activity across all four of the operators, and we’re – our intention of giving the number was to be able to give you a sense of – we’re obviously putting nodes on air, and I think the math would roughly play out where we’ve put about 5,000-ish nodes on air roughly over the last year or so since we talked about the size of the pipeline. And then we’ve added about 10,000 more nodes to the pipeline to be constructed over future dates. So to give you a sense of kind of the activity relative to the pace at which we’re putting them on air and all four of the operators are driving that increase in pipeline as well as all four of the operators saw the benefit of some of the nodes that were put on during the last 12 months or so. Around how we’re thinking about markets, generally speaking, I would say the majority of both the CapEx and the nodes that we’re receiving are going to be in markets that were already in, in those top 25 markets, although expanding the footprint of those markets. What we have seen happen, and this continues, we’ve seen this happen the last six or seven years, when we first started investing in small cells, is there tends to be an initial investment in the most dense components of a given market. And then as investment happens over time, that investment spreads from city centers, maybe potentially central business districts, out into – further into the community and further away from those central business districts. We’ve seen that pattern continue as the business has grown. So for the most part, the capital that we see in front of us in the medium term, the short term, that’s going to be largely in the markets that we’re already in. I do believe, based on the activity and growth in data, there’s going to be a need for small cells beyond the top 25 markets, and we would expect to see, over time, the carriers expand their desire and need to deploy small cells beyond the top 25 markets. But the capital decisions that we’ve made today and the vast majority of the operating activity that you’re seeing us perform, that’s primarily in the top 25 markets. And specifically to your comment around why are we making the comment around organic build, we’re expanding the footprint that we either acquired or have built today in order to cover needs in those – largely in those top 25 markets.
Matthew Niknam:
Got it. Thank you.
Operator:
We’ll go next to Nick Del Deo with MoffettNathanson.
Nick Del Deo:
Hi, thanks for taking my question. First, have you seen any increased propensity for multiband antennas in the applications you received or the discussions you’re having with the carriers relative to the past? I’ve heard mixed messages on this front. I would love to hear your thoughts.
Jay Brown:
Nick, I would tell you, over the long term, the reason why you’ve heard mixed messages is because there’s mixed approaches. The carriers have different approaches, and they take different approaches by market. Ultimately, they’re trying to cost-effectively deploy the network in ways that make their network most efficient. And so depending on their spectrum position in the market, the amount of demand on those networks, they will make differing decisions. So the fact that you’re hearing mixed answers is a pretty accurate way of describing the way it is ultimately deployed.
Nick Del Deo:
Okay, that’s helpful. Then maybe one on the small cell front. We’ve also heard that some municipalities gotten incrementally more difficult to deal with when it comes to permitting. May be as builds get more towards residential areas. Have you seen the same thing? And if you have, has it affected the timeline you’ve laid out for when the chunks of your pipeline will turn out and start generating revenue?
Jay Brown:
I mean, municipalities are obviously a component of what that time line when we talked about 18 to 24 months to deploy small cells. And similar to – if we were having this conversation 20 years ago, I think people would have asked a similar question about the deployment of towers. It is certainly a barrier to entry, and it’s certainly something we have to navigate in the process of building the infrastructure. I don’t know that I would necessarily describe the municipalities as becoming more difficult. What I would describe is the scale at which we’re doing this over as many markets as we’re deploying this infrastructure means there’s more conversation in social media and in the press about the activities happening. We’re pretty committed to working with municipalities because we want to be a long-term player in the market. And so following whatever rules, zoning and planning rules that they have in place is something we’re committed to doing. We’re going to do it the right way and be a good partner over a long period of time. And I have not found the difficulties, as you described them, with municipalities to be something that, in any way, inhibits our returns or our ability to deploy the infrastructure. It’s a matter of going through the process and ensuring we’re following the right rules and regulations of particular municipalities and working with them constructively to provide for some of the aesthetics that they desire and, at the same time, getting the infrastructure that’s really needed to get that deployed on a timely basis.
Nick Del Deo:
Okay. That’s helpful. Thanks.
Jay Brown:
You bet.
Operator:
We’ll go next to Michael Rollins with Citi.
Michael Rollins:
Hi, thanks for taking the question. If you look at the change in straight-line for 2018 of about $60 million and if you look at what that might represent in terms of total contract value, how should investors view that in terms of future activity because you have holistic in the late situation? It seems to represent the totality of activity that was expected from the carrier, whatever the upgrade or incremental deployment purpose was. So in this situation with these new agreements that you have, could investors look at what’s represented by the straight-line as the totality of the expectation over the next number of years? Or you look at it more as a minimum? And maybe you can put that incremental opportunity into context.
Jay Brown:
Mike, you were breaking out in some components of the question, but I think I got the basic gist of it. The short answer is that’s a baseline of the level of activity. Obviously, what we straight-line would be the committed component or some portion of the committed component of the activity. And there is upside from there, and that would be true across all of the customer agreements that we’ve signed.
Dan Schlanger:
And Mike, I think as Jay pointed out earlier, it’s hard to take exactly from straight-line and try to make that into just exactly what the activity is. Although it could be higher than that, and this is kind of the low end or the baseline of it. What we’re looking at, as we’ve been talking about, is the fact that this is pushing in a lot of the activity that we had been counting on into a contracted element. And something that we’re really excited about is the fact that we now see lots of clarity and understand where we’re going to go over the next several years with one of our largest customers. And we’ve solved some of their issues and we’ve gotten some economics from it, and we feel really good about where we are. It’s just hard to see exactly in the straight-line number and try to predict exactly what’s going to happen with the activity. What we believe it is a signal of, though, is, as we’ve been talking about, increasing levels of activity across a multiyear period that we have more visibility into at this point.
Michael Rollins:
And is there a way to think about how much of that was driven by towers versus how much of that was driven by fiber?
Jay Brown:
Yes. Well, you can look in the first quarter and see where the change in straight-line happened, and the vast majority of that was on the tower side.
Michael Rollins:
Thanks very much.
Operator:
We’ll go next to Walter Piecyk with BTIG.
Walter Piecyk:
Great, thanks. Last year, in 2017, your amortization of prepaid was $244 million, and the year before that, it was $203 million, so the change was about $40 million. I think in the past, you said you expect a similar change in 2018 versus 2017. So if you look at that $79 million in the first quarter, and you just basically said there was no change in that whatsoever, that implies more of a $70 million increase. So is that amortization of prepaid going to decline over the course of the year in order to get down to that $40 million? Or is a higher amortization of prepaid expected?
Dan Schlanger:
Yes. Thanks, Walt. It’s not going to decline over the year. It is going to be higher. But about half of that, about $40 million of it, is related to the purchase accounting around Lightower, and so it’s included in our acquisition bucket, not in our new leasing bucket.
Walter Piecyk:
Got it. So of the $79 million for the first quarter, you’re saying there was $10 million there that was – that should be in the acquisition bucket? Or the $79 million is fully all prepaid?
Dan Schlanger:
There’s $10 million of it that would be in the acquisition bucket because it’s related to the acquisition of Lightower. So the previous statement we made is that there was about the same year-over-year in our new leasing, and that is still the statement, is that the amount of prepaid in our new leasing is consistent from a dollar basis year-on-year.
Walter Piecyk:
Okay. So if that’s $40 million and then there’s an extra $10 million, then that means the $79 million shouldn’t change throughout the course of the year. Should it stay at $79 million, around $80 million for every quarter this year?
Dan Schlanger:
Yes, it’s going to be around that, yes.
Walter Piecyk:
Okay. And just on prepaid in general, to the extent that – there’s a time, basically, it’s reimbursed CapEx to a certain extent, like when you collect the revenue, you’re collecting more revenue than the CapEx associated with it? Or is it – are those equal dollars? Like how does that revenue fall through as far as the stuff is going to the deferred revenue bucket and then booked back onto the income statement?
Dan Schlanger:
Yes, it’s the same number as what we book in prepaid. We ultimately get in – what we book in upfront prepaid is what we ultimately get in prepaid rent amortization. Look, and just to be clear, though, it’s not cash at that point because the cash is coming upfront. So we get the cash upfront as a reimbursement of CapEx, and then we amortize that over the course of the life of the contract.
Walter Piecyk:
Right. So let’s assume that your CapEx is $10 million, and you collect $12 million, right, because you’re getting some return on that first tenant, right, that first build. Is it just the $10 million or $12 million that’s going through the amortization of prepaid rent?
Dan Schlanger:
So I’m going to try to change your example a little bit. It’s not that we collect more CapEx than what we spend in order to get a return. It’s that, in order to get our return, we get revenues and we get reimbursed a portion of our CapEx. So if we spend $10 million on anything, we would get some portion of the $10 million reimbursed to us, and then we would make our return over time by making revenues from that customer. So let’s say of the $10 million, we get $2 million reimbursed. That $2 million is then amortized over the life of the contract.
Walter Piecyk:
Got it. So any of those – any of that revenue that’s effectively in the $220 million guidance for the year, there’s a CapEx associated with it that completely offsets that revenue. I’m talking about the revenue in amortization of prepaid. Okay, got it. Thank you.
Operator:
We’ll go next to Amy Yong with Macquarie.
Amy Yong:
Thanks and good morning. Just question on your fiber needs. When we think about a 30,000 nodes, how much fiber is required to support this? I guess, we’re just trying to size up how much driver requirements you need over the next 18 to 24 months. Thank you.
Jay Brown:
Amy, our historical average has been we’ve been adding about 2.5 nodes per mile of fiber. Among those 30,000 nodes, there’s a component of those nodes that are – as I mentioned in my comments, about half of the nodes that we added to the pipeline in the first quarter were going on existing fiber, so we would expect very little to no additional fiber needed there. And then for the other half, that’s an expansion of the fiber footprint. And to extend that out to the whole pipeline of 30,000, we have a mix in there of new markets that we’re building, as I was speaking to earlier, as well as co-location. So we will – the fiber need is dependent upon whether we’re expanding in new market or co-locating on existing.
Amy Yong:
Got it. And then, I guess, the guidance for 1Q OpEx, is that the right base to use going forward? And at what point should we actually expect that number to drop down?
Dan Schlanger:
Yes, Amy. The guidance we’ve given – you can look at the full year guidance, and that would give you a good base for what to use going forward. I think your question around when it would drop down or at least to see the leverage, look, what we’re looking at is, as Jay pointed out, a potentially highly increasing level of activity to the extent that 5G comes in. And what we’re trying to do is position ourselves to have the right assets and the right capabilities to take on that demand and, ultimately, that market opportunity. And what we’re excited about is that we have so much of that coming our way, and we’ve positioned ourselves uniquely to have the right assets to ultimately take advantage of that opportunity. And as that continues, if we continue to add small cells at a pace that’s greater than what we’ve added to them in the past, we might have to add expenses, and we’ll certainly have to continue to add capital. But those will all be investments that will be included in what we look at in terms of the returns we get. And what we’re seeing is those returns are much in excess of our cost of capital over time. And with the potential increase in 5G, it would be even more upside for us. So what we’re excited about is exactly that, is that we’re in a good position to take advantage of that upside, and that may require – or will require additional capital and may require additional expenses. But at some point, we do think that, that will turn, and we’ll have most of the capital in place, most of the fiber in place and will come down on that expense – those expense levels and the incremental capital needed. But that may be years from now, depending on when this opportunity plays out, and we, frankly, hope that it is years from now because that will just mean we get to take advantage of more and more of the opportunities that are set in front of us.
Operator:
We’ll go next to Robert Gutman with Guggenheim Securities.
Robert Gutman:
Hi, thanks for taking the question. On the small cell deployment, you said 18 to 24 months. You’ve also said in the past, I think, a two-year cycle on new builds, on new fiber builds. I was wondering – I assume there’s a difference in deployment timing on existing – when you have existing fiber versus a new build. And if it’s still 18 months at the low end on existing fiber, what are some of the other factors that stretch out that long besides the permitting issues?
Jay Brown:
Robert, the 18 to 24 months, we give that as a number, roughly the two-year number, as an indication of how long it takes us on average across all of the activity that we’re seeing. As I mentioned earlier, if it’s a co-location on existing fiber, it’s probably inside of that time line. And if it’s brand-new constructed fiber, it very well may be outside of that time line. So we’re just trying to give you a sense of average, when we give you a new pipeline number and activity, how far we are away from actually receiving revenue and cash flow associated with that. That’s the purpose of doing that. I would tell you the biggest driver of that time line, though, would be things related to the zoning and planning process and the difficulty of going through the real estate process of that. So if we think about the actual – how long does it actually take us to construct the node once all the permits are in place, that’s a relatively short component of that overall time line. We spend most of the time – most of that period of time really working on what you would think of as the soft costs associated with that of gaining the permits and construction rights to deploy the infrastructure.
Robert Gutman:
Great, thanks. And did you say what the total on air and the total backlog is now given the changes at this point?
Jay Brown:
We’re about 60,000 total on air or in the pipeline, so we’re about 30,000 that have been put on air and about 30,000 in the pipeline.
Dan Schlanger:
Yes. And Robert, as Jay mentioned in the past, the last time we gave that number was around 25,000 and 25,000. So we put 5,000 additional on air and booked an additional 10,000 in order to get to those two numbers.
Robert Gutman:
Great. Thank you very much.
Operator:
We’ll go next to Spencer Kurn with New Street Research.
Spencer Kurn:
Hi guys. I’ve got one question just on guidance and then one more strategic question. So on guidance, it looks like you came in $2 million ahead on cash site leasing rental revenue this quarter, but you actually lowered guidance for this metric for the full year. Usually, at the start of the year, I’d expect an organic beat to be annualized for the full year guidance. So I’m just wondering, what were the sort of offsetting impacts to the beat this quarter that caused you to lower the full year guidance?
Dan Schlanger:
Yes, Spencer. I’ll just say that those are all within the ranges that we gave, and getting into the $2 million to $3 million specificity is not something we’re going to do on a quarter-to-quarter basis within our guidance. So we’re just trying to keep it within the ranges, and everything you’re talking about is in that range because otherwise, then we would just give the midpoint as the only point. So it’s just in the range is what I would say.
Spencer Kurn:
Got it. Thanks. And then more strategically, you’re obviously the most uniquely positioned tower company because you have a more hybrid approach between towers and small cells. Could you just talk about the benefits of this approach? And how do you weigh capturing incremental revenue growth on towers versus fiber? I’m really curious how you think about an incremental – the value of the incremental dollar of revenue on towers versus fiber. Thanks.
Jay Brown:
Yes. I appreciate the question, Spencer, because this is sort of part and parcel of the way we think about capital allocation. The reason why we’ve invested in fiber is because we think it enhances long- term dividends per share. And that’s the measure upon which we make all of our discretionary capital investments, whether it’s in towers or on the fiber side. And so the benefit to it over the long term is we think we’ll provide shareholders with greater returns, particularly in the form of the amount of dividends we pay per share over the long term. I think we sit in a unique position, having watched the deployment of macro towers 20 years ago and then the need as it grew over time, the density of the network grew and the co-location activities and seeing the returns of those. What we’re seeing in the fiber movie is basically a sequel of what happened in towers. In the early days, you have a carrier who needs to cover a given geography, and over a relatively short period of time, other carriers need to cover that same geography. So we’re in the process of working with carriers and understanding their deployment plans and then assessing whether or not we believe the areas that they want to deploy small cells in have the opportunity for co-location. And as we spoke about in two specific markets, in the case of Phoenix and Philadelphia, I think we’ve done a really good job of identifying locations to deploy small cells for an initial tenant, and then we’ve seen co-location that’s come after that, and that’s driven very attractive returns. And you can see that in the micro standpoint of looking at individual markets, and we believe you can see that overall in the totality of the fiber business. Although granted, in the totality of the fiber business, it’s a little harder to see the incremental benefit from it because we’re continuing to invest heavily and expand into markets where we believe there will be future opportunities. So we’re building very immature assets that, at the moment, that we believe have a significant amount of upside and future growth that will enable us, we believe, to continue our stated goal of 7% to 8% growth over a long period of time. And we’re able to do it with customers that we know really well in the U.S. and in the top – generally in the top 25 markets. So that’s the approach, but it’s based on thinking about what we think the incremental increase in dividends per share are going to be. That’s how we’re driving our capital allocation decisions. To the second part of your question around how we evaluate small cells and tower tenants, we want both of those is the short answer to that. And we’re trying to figure out a way to grow as much revenue on towers as we can, and we’re trying to grow as much revenue on small cells as we possibly can. Those businesses, obviously, have similar customers in many respects, but from an economic standpoint, they work very differently. As we’ve talked about in the past, small cell systems are not homogenous. So depending on the geography that we’re working on and the underlying cost, then we need to appropriately adjust the pricing mechanisms in markets based on the underlying cost of deployments, and we do that. On the tower side, the revenue and rents tend to be more homogenous across markets and across assets.
Spencer Kurn:
Great. Thanks for taking my question.
Operator:
We’ll go next to Tim Horan with Oppenheimer.
Tim Horan:
Could you give a little bit more color on the fiber business maybe in totality, what the organic growth is, churn, maybe pricing? Have you seen any effects in the total business from the tax restructuring here in the U.S.? And then specifically on that business also, when you have a second tenant coming on for small cells in a specific site, some of your competitors discount the second tenant pricing. Have you guys – do you guys do that? Or do you try to hold the pricing similar to what you charge your first tenant?
Jay Brown:
Yes. Generally, in the fiber business, I would go back to where we’ve talked about investment. Where we’ll deploy capital, we get an initial yield on that capital somewhere in the neighborhood of about 6% to 7%. When we add a second tenant, our returns go into the double digits, low-teens area as – from a yield standpoint, and that would be a recurring cash yield against net invested capital. And then if we get beyond that second tenant, obviously, north of that into the high teens in terms of yields on the assets. From a totality of the business, we’re seeing two things. We’re seeing the opportunity to continue to invest around that 6% to 7% area to expand in further markets. And then for the assets that have been online for a longer period of time, we’re seeing those incremental yields at the levels that I just mentioned. And the second question around second tenant pricing, again, back to the answer on the first question. We haven’t seen any change in pricing as we add additional tenants. There’s great value in the shared infrastructure model. Whether we’re talking about towers or talking about fiber and allowing a carrier to utilize that asset and share it across multiple carriers, that lowers their overall cost of deployment. And it’s why the tower model has been so successful over time, and it’s why, I believe, we’ve seen such great success on the fiber side. It’s a cost-effective way for them to deploy small cells, and we don’t need to discount the pricing for the second one. The value of the shared economics is already in play.
Dan Schlanger:
And Tim, just to – sorry, go ahead. Go ahead.
Tim Horan:
So did you give the organic – for the fiber business in total, the organic growth rate, did you guys give that by any chance?
Dan Schlanger:
Yes. So that was where I was going to go with it. I think Jay was talking about more on the small cell side. So just to try to break out the businesses overall, towers, we’ve said that the new leasing activity is around $110 million this year; escalators, around the neighborhood of 3%; and churn is in the neighborhood of 1% to 2%. On small cells, we’re seeing about $55 million of new leasing for this year. Escalators are about half of what we see in towers, about 1.5% on average. The churn is in that 1% to 2% range, very low. And then on fiber solutions, specifically, we’re at $45 million of new leasing activity across our business, and the escalators are zero, and churn is in the mid- to high single digits per year range, so 7%, 8%, 9% per year. We think that those are all very attractive businesses. And as Jay was pointing out before, with small cells getting those returns that Jay was talking about, which were double what we saw in the same maturity cycle of towers, the ability to add something like the fiber solutions revenue to it that generates returns in and of itself is really an attractive place for us to be. It allows us to expand that shared infrastructure model to lower the cost to any one user by sharing it across multiple users. And the reason we’re able to get the same pricing on the second tenant as we are in the first in a small cell system is basically, we’re subsidizing that first tenant with the expectation a second, third and fourth tenant may come. So they’re getting a lower price than they could get if they were doing it themselves or using somebody else, and we’re passing that along by deferring that cost over more customers than just that first tenant.
Tim Horan:
And then last, last. On the total CapEx, is this a good run rate? Or should it kind of pick up from here because of fiber demand?
Dan Schlanger:
It’s generally a good run rate. We’re seeing incremental fiber demand as we talk, but it’s not a significant number in the capital that would change where we are overall.
Tim Horan:
Thanks guys.
Operator:
We’ll go next to Phil Cusick with JPMorgan.
Phil Cusick:
Hey guys, thanks. So can you help us think about the growth of small cells? And as we talk to investors, it seems like people sort of struggle with the high capital intensity here versus the percent growth that we’re seeing off of small cell. And Jay, you mentioned, and I think it’s a good point, that it’s rare to see inflections in this business. Should we be thinking about an acceleration in the small cell organic revenue growth over time as this big backlog matures? Or should we just think about it as sort of steady growth on either percentage or revenue basis as the business grows?
Jay Brown:
Phil, I think there’s two things that are happening. Let’s assume that capital investment and activity stays relatively stable across the whole business. What I would tell you is that the long runway of growth, we’re, as we talked about, kind of a leasing activity, we’re seeing a lease-up that you make an apples-to-apples comparison of adding the second tenant over a five-year period of time. So people who have gotten comfortable with the way towers lease up were going at about twice that pace, so the incremental change, when you look at it in any given market or any given asset, is that the yield, the margins and revenue are growing at a faster pace, roughly double the pace of what we saw on towers. Now that’s masked by the fact that the capital intensity that you can see on the financial statements and the continued investment that we’re making around CapEx is related to the fact that we’re having experiences like Phoenix and Philadelphia, where the early capital that we put in has resulted in exactly the returns that we anticipated, where we’re into the low teens as we add a second tenant, which has encouraged us to continue to make investments. And those investments go into the mix at about 6% to 7% and require sort of that high intensity of capital. Now if we roll the play all the way forward and roll this out over a five- or a 10-year period of time, I believe, just like we’ve seen in towers, we’ll see activity over a long period of time where the carriers come back and increase the density of nodes that they have across the fiber. We’ll see amendments to those nodes and that fiber as they add additional technologies over time. And we’ll see carriers who are not initially on that fiber come to that fiber and need it as they build out the density of that fiber. So over a long period of time, we will get back to a place where there’s sort of a stable level of revenue. But in a period of time like we’re in now, where we’re continuing to expand the pie, the dollars of revenue that are going in are going to be increasing as a greater number of assets come online as we build out the fiber that we’ve contracted to build.
Phil Cusick:
So if I can sum up a little bit, maybe we should be looking at dollars of investment increasing. And then over time, as you have more and more of your new sites – new small cells go on existing infrastructure, that dollars of revenue and percent intensity should start to normalize?
Jay Brown:
Yes. I would – again, it depends on how much we end up investing, how long do we get to before we have sort of a stable asset base, where then you look at it more on the way we would look at towers now and you compare year-over-year on a just pure dollars basis and say, did that activity increase or decrease? It may take some period of time, depending on what the opportunity is ahead before we get to that place where we have a stable base of assets, upon which we’re making that comparison.
Phil Cusick:
Great, understood. And second question. As FirstNet gear goes on to towers, there’s a risk that sites have to be hardened. Can you talk about your obligations to harden your towers, if any are declared critical infrastructure? What’s on you versus the carrier?
Jay Brown:
Phil, I think that gets to the specifics of how we contract with customers, so I’m going to beg off of that question.
Phil Cusick:
It just seems – I know maybe it’s a little cute, but it seems like sort of a change in strategy if you are obligated. With the rest of the business, it’s pretty much on the carrier if they need something in the site to be changed for a contract, existing or new. Is there a shift in that strategy and what you’re willing to be obligated for?
Jay Brown:
Phil, I think I’d go back to the comments that I made earlier in the call about we approached the agreement with the same core principles and thoughts around the economic trade. So if the implication of your question is a loss in value to us, that wouldn’t meet that core principle that I spoke about earlier.
Phil Cusick:
Okay. Thanks, Jay.
Operator:
And we have time for one last question. We’ll go to Brandon Lee Nispel KeyBanc Capital Markets.
Brandon Lee Nispel:
I was wondering if you could give us the contribution for Lightower in the quarter. And then what type of small cell leasing activity are you seeing on Lightower versus some of your assets that you’ve acquired before? And then just last question on Lightower and then I have one more follow-up is, are you changing anything in you’re doing in terms of integration? Are you seeing any synergies for that asset? And then one more question just on the guidance. I’m curious, how did you get a lease done with AT&T that doesn’t include some sort of portion of new leasing activity from FirstNet when AT&T says they want to move fast in deploying that network?
Jay Brown:
On your first question, around Lightower, it’s progressing as we expected. We had previously given the outlook for what we thought they would do this year, and I would say we’re on track for our expectations. So no update to the guidance that we’ve previously given there, and the business performed in the range that we had expected in the first quarter. On the second question around integration, we haven’t changed any of our approaches around integration, so we’re continuing to run the play as we’ve run it in the past and welcoming some 900 employees from Lightower into the business, thrilled to have them. And they’ve done a terrific job helping us run the integration into the business. As I mentioned before, we think kind of late – really late this year or probably early part of next year, we’ll have those activities around integration complete. And then we’ll be able to turn our sights towards how do we continue to grow beyond maybe just the markets that we’re in, the opportunity to add additional revenues to the fiber plants that we own. On the last question, we tried to be specific that we had provided for AT&T the ability to deploy FirstNet. I know that’s been a really common question over the last couple of years for us. So they do have the right as a result of this recent agreement to deploy FirstNet, and we would expect to see the impact – although not material to our 2018 results, we would expect to see the benefit of that activity in periods beyond 2018. And with that, operator, I appreciate everyone joining the call this morning. Thanks for the time. We’re excited about what we’re seeing in the business and look forward to giving you update next quarter.
Operator:
And that concludes today’s conference. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.
Executives:
Benjamin Lowe - VP, Corporate Finance Jay Brown - CEO, President and Director Daniel Schlanger - CFO and SVP
Analysts:
Simon Flannery - Morgan Stanley David Barden - Bank of America Merrill Lynch Brett Feldman - Goldman Sachs Group Matthew Niknam - Deutsche Bank Richard Prentiss - Raymond James & Associates Michael Rollins - Citigroup Colby Synesael - Cowen and Company Jonathan Atkin - RBC Capital Markets Nicholas Del Deo - MoffettNathanson Yong Choe - JPMorgan Chase & Co. Amir Rozwadowski - Barclays PLC Spencer Kurn - New Street Research Timothy Horan - Oppenheimer Brandon Nispel - KeyBanc Capital Markets Robert Gutman - Guggenheim Securities Batya Levi - UBS Investment Bank
Operator:
Good day, everyone, and welcome to the Crown Castle International Fourth Quarter 2017 Earnings Conference Call. Today's conference is being recorded. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Ben Lowe. Please go ahead.
Benjamin Lowe:
Thank you, April, and good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us today as we review our fourth quarter 2017 results. With me on the call this morning are Jay Brown, Crown Castle's Chief Executive Officer; and Dan Schlanger, Crown Castle's Chief Financial Officer. To aid the discussion, we have posted supplemental materials in the Investors section of our website at crowncastle.com, which we will refer to throughout the call this morning. This conference call will contain forward-looking statements, which are subject to certain risks, uncertainties and assumptions, and actual results may vary materially from those expected. Information about potential factors which could affect our results is available in the press release and the Risk Factors sections of the company's SEC filings. Our statements are made as of today, January 25, 2018, and we assume no obligations to update any forward-looking statements. In addition, today's call includes discussions of certain non-GAAP financial measures. Tables reconciling these non-GAAP financial measures are available in the supplemental information package in the Investors section of the company's website at crowncastle.com. With that, let me turn the call over to Jay.
Jay Brown:
Thanks, Ben, and good morning, everyone. Thanks for joining us on the call. As you saw from our earnings release yesterday afternoon, we finished 2017 on a strong note, delivering another quarter of solid financial results that capped off a terrific year for Crown Castle and its shareholders. We generated significant growth across our business by leveraging our leading portfolio of assets and focusing on our customers' evolving network needs, with this growth translating to an 8% increase in dividends per share compared to 2016. This growth was at the high end of our long-term annual dividends per share growth target and contributed significantly to the total return of 31% we generated for our shareholders, which compares favorably to the 22% returned by the S&P 500 in 2017. We generated these returns while investing over $10 billion to expand our leading portfolio of communications infrastructure assets and financed those investments in a manner that allowed us to reduce our leverage ratios, increase our maturity profile and lower our overall cost of capital. Further, we closed the acquisition of Lightower, the largest in our history, 2 months sooner than expected, and our early view of the operating performance of the business is in line with our expectations. As we turn the page on a great 2017, we believe the Crown Castle story remains compelling. We have positioned the company to benefit from a digital world, where massive amounts of data traverse networks. Based on this position, we are able to offer investors a unique value proposition of near-term returns consisting of a 4% dividend yield with 7% to 8% targeted annual growth while investing in assets and capabilities that we believe position us to generate growth for decades to come. Our leading portfolio of communications infrastructure assets has significant capacity to support future organic growth as our customers look to access our assets to meet the increasing demand for data. In 2017, we strengthened our leadership position with the acquisitions of FiberNet, Wilcon and Lightower that operate in top U.S. markets where we see the greatest demand for network investment by our customers. These investments reflect our strong belief that owning fiber is fundamental to delivering small cell solutions to our customers in a period of significantly increasing cell site densification. Our belief is informed by our significant experience building 50,000 small cell nodes, which is why we now own approximately 60,000 route miles of fiber, including in 23 of the top 25 markets in the U.S. We believe these capital allocation decisions will drive significant long-term growth in our dividend per share as we add small cell and fiber solutions customers to these high-capacity metro fiber assets. Turning to 2018. We increased our outlook for site rental revenues and adjusted EBITDA to reflect 2 long-term customer agreements signed during the quarter. These agreements included contracted new leasing activity and term extensions on existing leases. We continue to see increasing levels of investment activity from our major customers that is resulting in an expected increase in 2018 new leasing activity across towers, small cells and fiber solutions as compared to the new leasing activity we saw in 2017. As we look beyond 2018, we're excited by the opportunity we see ahead to leverage our unique portfolio of assets to drive long-term growth as our customers make significant investments to keep pace with the rapid growth in data demand. With mobile data demand expected to double every 2 years, we see this level of network investment across towers and small cells continuing for years to come. Similar to the wireless industry, the expected 20% annual growth in wired data traffic is driving additional demand across our dense metro fiber assets. To meet this demand, our strategy is to provide differentiated fiber solutions that serve high-bandwidth, multi-location customers such as large enterprise, health care providers and educational institutions. This strategy allows us to enhance our competitive position in small cells by increasing the opportunities we serve with the underlying fiber assets, thereby improving the already attractive shared economic model we see in our small cell business. Importantly, we have underwritten our fiber investments based on existing applications, and the development of future technologies has the potential to further extend the runway of growth. Emerging technologies, including 5G, autonomous vehicles augmented or virtual reality and Internet of Things applications, will require mission-critical network infrastructure that provides availability anywhere at any time on any device. Looking out over the next decade, we expect our customers will increasingly rely on a hyper dense network of towers and small cells connected by high-capacity fiber to provide these new services, which require faster speeds and significantly lower latency. With our distributed real estate of more than 40,000 towers, 50,000 small cells on air under contract and approximately 60,000 route miles of high-capacity fiber, we believe Crown Castle is in a unique position to benefit from these trends longer term. While businesses globally are trying to emulate companies like Uber, who are driving efficiencies by sharing resources, we have shown for 2 decades that the sharing of our infrastructure across multiple parties provides the lowest cost and fastest time-to-market for our customers while delivering compelling financial returns for our company. While we have positioned Crown Castle for the future, we remain focused on consistently delivering value to our shareholders by converting the demand for our assets into growth in dividends. Our ability to consistently generate near-term operating performance and shareholder returns while investing in the future growth of our company is a testament to the quality of our business, assets and people, and we believe it sets us apart. Our focus on creating value for shareholders has resulted in a 14% compound annual growth in AFFO per share since we adopted that metric in 2007. Over that same period, we have delivered a 13% total annual return, more than doubling that of the S&P 500. Looking forward, Crown Castle remains a compelling investment opportunity. We are focused on generating attractive near-term returns for our shareholders, consisting of a high-quality dividend that we expect to grow 7% to 8% annually, while investing in assets and capabilities we believe are necessary to convert data demand growth into cash flow growth for decades to come. And with that, I'll turn the call over to Dan.
Daniel Schlanger:
Thanks, Jay, and good morning, everyone. Our solid fourth quarter results punctuated another very successful year for Crown Castle on several fronts. We increased our dividend per share by 8%, reflecting the underlying growth in our business and our commitment to return capital to shareholders. We further extended our leadership position in the U.S. as a shared infrastructure provider of choice with continued investment in our assets, including the acquisitions of FiberNet, Wilcon and Lightower. And we managed this while proactively improving our balance sheet flexibility, increasing the average maturity on our debt, lowering our average interest rate and reducing our leverage. Turning first to fourth quarter 2017 results on Slide 4. I want to walk through a few items that should be considered when comparing the results to our prior outlook, including the Lightower acquisition that closed earlier than expected on November 1 and was not included in that outlook. When compared to prior outlook, Lightower contributed approximately $140 million, $83 million and $79 million to site rental revenues, adjusted EBITDA and AFFO, respectively. Backing out the incremental contribution from Lightower, fourth quarter site rental revenues would have been $910 million, adjusted EBITDA would have been $624 million, and AFFO would have been $433 million. Additionally, site rental revenues and adjusted EBITDA benefited from approximately $5 million of straight-line impacts associated with the customer agreements that Jay mentioned earlier. And finally, adjusted EBITDA and AFFO were impacted by approximately $10 million of costs associated with additional accruals for annual bonuses relating to our 2017 outperformance as well as some severance-related expenses that were not included in our prior outlook. When considering the impact of these items, fourth quarter and full year 2017 results were within the ranges provided in our prior outlook for site rental revenues, adjusted EBITDA and AFFO. For the full year 2017, site rental revenues increased approximately 13% or $436 million as compared to full year 2016, including approximately 5% growth in organic contribution to site rental revenues. Moving on to investment activities during the year. We invested approximately $9 billion in acquisitions and approximately $1.2 billion in capital expenditures, inclusive of approximately $85 million of sustaining capital expenditures. From a balance sheet perspective, we continue to improve our financial flexibility while focusing on maintaining our investment-grade credit profile. We ended the year at approximately 5.3x leverage pro forma for a full quarter's contribution from Lightower, which is down nearly 0.5 turn in the past 6 months. We also continue to proactively extend maturities while reducing our borrowing costs. Following our successful bond offering earlier this month, the weighted average term remaining on our debt is approximately 6.5 years, with an average interest cost of under 4%. Additionally, we have approximately $3 billion of available borrowing capacity under our revolving credit facility. Turning now to Slide 5. We increased our outlook for site rental revenues and adjusted EBITDA by approximately $36 million due to the straight-line revenues associated with the customer agreements that Jay referenced earlier. Turning to Slide 6. We expect between $910 million and $955 million of growth in site rental revenues from 2017 to 2018. As you can see on the slide, when compared to the prior outlook, there are no changes to either the organic contribution to site rental revenues or the contribution to growth from acquisitions in 2018. Looking at the far right side, the expected growth in site rental revenues is approximately $30 million higher when compared to the prior outlook, which is related to the higher straight-line revenues I just discussed. Turning now to Slide 7. You can see the 2018 outlook for AFFO growth remains unchanged at $360 million to $400 million. As a result, the 2018 outlook for AFFO per share at the midpoint is also unchanged at $5.50, representing approximately 10% growth when compared to 2017 AFFO per share after adjusting for the impact of Lightower and related financing transactions. To wrap up, 2017 was a very successful year for Crown Castle, and we remain excited about the opportunity to generate significant growth in cash flows across our asset portfolio and deliver on our 7% to 8% annual growth target in dividends per share. With that, April, I'd like to open the call to questions.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions]. And we'll first hear from Simon Flannery of Morgan Stanley.
Simon Flannery:
I wonder if you could sort of characterize the level of activity around the applications. Obviously, you haven't got the leases signed to put, say, FirstNet into your guidance yet, but how are the application volumes generally compared to, say, this time last year? And then if there's any KPIs or anything you could share with us on the small cell and fiber business to get a better look under the hood there, appreciate that.
Jay Brown:
Sure, Simon. We mentioned this, I believe, last quarter as well and continuing to see this play itself out. As we look at the activity around towers, small cells and fiber solutions, the activity that we would expect in full year 2018 is greater than what we experienced during full year 2017. And they're early days. I mean, we're just now a couple of weeks into January, and our experience so far has been consistent with that expectation as we came into this year. So we've seen increase in activity across all 3 areas.
Simon Flannery:
Okay. And anything you can do -- give us in terms of, say, the lease-up on the fiber and the small cell side per node, et cetera? I know you've given some of that color in the past.
Jay Brown:
Now what we've seen in terms of leasing the fiber for small cells continues to be at a pace of about twice what our historical experience has been for towers. So as we were previously adding and have for a long period of time in the neighborhood of about 1 tenant per tower over a 10-year period of time on the tower side, we're going at about twice that pace as we've seen lease-up on small cells. So directionally, we're continuing to see the sharing of the asset and the resulting economics pace -- at a pace faster than what we've historically seen on the towers side.
Daniel Schlanger:
And the only other thing I'd add on that, Simon, is that our pipeline for small cell nodes does continue to creep up a little bit even as we are delivering certain nodes within a quarter or period. So we're still seeing good activity across the board.
Operator:
Next, we'll hear from David Barden of Bank of America.
David Barden:
I guess the first one is just on the long-term contract extensions and the new business that got done in the fourth quarter. I guess some industry chatter out there suggests that maybe the terms and conditions are changing around that, specifically around escalators. I was wondering if you could kind of just address kind of what the contracts' kind of terms and conditions look like relative to history. And then second, I guess, Dan or Jay, last quarter, when you were talking about the guide-up of, I think, about $190 million to $220 million, you broke it down into towers, fiber and small cells. I think towers was $110 million, and fiber and small cells were roughly half each of the balance. Could you kind of revisit that? Is that still the same? And then could you kind of talk about the churn and how each of those 3 buckets are contributing to the churn numbers that we're looking at here in the guide for 2018?
Jay Brown:
Thanks, Dave. On your first question, we're not going to get into the specifics of what we did around these agreements for obvious reasons. On the wireless side, there's obviously four customers. So we're going to maintain sort of our historical practice of not commenting directly. But I think directly in answer to a part of your question, though, that as we extended the terms, the escalations remained the same. So broadly, in the pricing environment that we have seen, and we've talked about this, I think, over the last several quarters, the pricing environment, whether it's for new leases, amendments to leases or the underlying base escalator on those contracts, we've not seen any change in the pricing environment. And I think that's reflected in the leasing activity and the growth in revenues that we've been showing on an organic basis.
Daniel Schlanger:
So to get at the second part of your question there, David, the breakdown of our new leasing activity between towers, small cells and fiber solutions haven't changed any. It's still $110 million at towers, $55 million at small cells and $45 million at fiber solutions. So we still see, like I said before, really good activity across the board, and I think that it's going to continue to translate into new leasing activity, as we did in our prior outlook. In regard to churn, we're about 1% to 2% on the towers side, and we think that that's a pretty good long-term view of what the churn is and pretty good for what would be in 2018. On small cells, it's in the same ballpark, 1% to 2%. And then on the fiber solutions business, it's in the upper single digits on a per-year basis as a percentage of revenues. And that really hasn't changed much either on our expectation for our outlook or longer term.
David Barden:
Okay, great. And just one follow-up on that, Dan. I noticed you guys took out the disclosure in the supplemental regarding the churn related to the Clearwire, Leap and PCS. Can we still look back at last quarter's disclosures? And kind of is that still the same? Or is that -- any major changes in that?
Daniel Schlanger:
There haven't been any, really, major changes. The reason we did that is that was -- to try to get some insight into a multiyear period of increased churn in the acquired networks. And where we are now, where the tower churn is back in the 1% or 2% range, we don't think it adds a lot of benefit to stay where -- what it is. We think that 1% to 2% range is good for a longer-term basis, so no real reason to continue to break out specific acquired network, but there's no change either from what we've disclosed last time.
Operator:
Next, we'll hear from Brett Feldman of Goldman Sachs.
Brett Feldman:
It's obviously good to hear that the funnel of small cell nodes continues to grow. During this earnings season, we've heard from one of your large customers who's doing a lot of fiber, and they've indicated they're increasingly less interested in using leased fiber solutions because they're looking to deploy fiber that has multiple use cases for themselves. And so they feel like doing it themselves is a better option. Could you maybe talk a bit about how your customers are using your fiber, why you feel confident that you have assets in the right places? And are you actually finding that some of your tenants are, indeed, using your fiber for more than one reason? Or is this still very much targeted towards small cell solutions?
Jay Brown:
Sure, Brett. I would say across all four of the operators, we're seeing them use the asset in multiple different ways, so not just for small cells but, as we've talked about, some of the other offerings that we have on the fiber solutions side. Those are products that they're interested in and are using in various ways. To the question of the addressable market, which I think really goes into the heart of your question, we certainly don't anticipate or expect that as the usage continues to grow and site densification continues and use of small cells becomes increasingly important to some of the comments that I made in my prepared remarks, the carriers are going to self perform some portion of the need for small cells. We believe the addressable market here for small cells and the pie, so to speak, is expanding rapidly and is going to continue to expand. We're going to own fiber in places where we think there's economic returns of sharing it across multiple parties. Our experience to date had shown that the carriers want to share it because it is their lowest cost and fastest time-to-market. And on top of that, we're going to see carriers, I think, invest and self perform, and we'll probably have other infrastructure providers come into the market and provide solutions in places where we don't. So I take-- and I don't believe it's just one carrier who's saying. There's multiple carriers in the market talking about how big the opportunity here is for small cells, and the need for fiber is core to that. So I think you're going to continue to see others beyond just us invest in fiber and then use that fiber for things like small cells.
Operator:
Matthew Niknam of Deutsche Bank.
Matthew Niknam:
Just two, if I could. First, on FirstNet, I think one of your peers has actually talked about starting to see applications for FirstNet activity. You mentioned in last night's release your guide is unchanged. If you could just maybe give us some high-level comments or update on how you think FirstNet could impact your business in '18. And then secondly, on tax reform, just wondering if you've seen any change in plans or tone from customers, whether it's wireless customers or enterprise customers, on the fiber side in light of corporate tax reform late last year.
Jay Brown:
On the first question, we obviously noted in the press release and mentioned in our remarks that we did not include impact of FirstNet into our outlook for 2018. I'll pass on commenting on what I think the potential impacts could be. We obviously believe that FirstNet will ultimately be deployed, and we believe that will be positively impacting our growth characteristics once it does turn. And if we have visibility and update to that, we'll certainly let you know when we know. On the second question, I don't know how to tie it directly to tax reform. I think to the comments that we've made, we're certainly expecting across towers, small cells and fiber solutions that we're going to see increased investments. And that's what's driving the increase in our expected leasing activity across all 3 of those areas, but we need to -- we'd need to probably talk to our customers about what's driving that. I don't know whether it's tied directly to the tax reform or, more broadly, kind of the secular trends that we've talked about with increasing usage by the consumer, which is driving the need for network investment.
Operator:
Ric Prentiss of Raymond James has our next question.
Richard Prentiss:
A couple of questions. I think a follow-up on David's. You mentioned the breakdown of the new leasing activity between tower, fiber, small cells. Can you help us understand the escalator -- and you did that with churn as well. Can you help us understand maybe the different dynamics of escalators on those 3 segments?
Daniel Schlanger:
Sure. I can do that. All right. On the towers side, the escalator is still in the 3% range generally is what we're looking at. On small cells, it's generally about half of that on a per-year basis. And on the fiber solutions business, there really isn't any escalator at all.
Richard Prentiss:
Okay. And then with Lightower closing earlier, nice to see the deal done, that means I would expect in November, December of 2018 any activity will move into the new leasing activity. So just wondering, should we be expecting a change? Because that was unchanged, I think, from initial guidance to new guidance. Should we think that there could be a movement to the higher end of the leasing activity and maybe the higher end of churn now that Lightower will have 2 months out of the newbuild acquisition category?
Jay Brown:
Yes, Ric. Our attempt given the change in timing and the movement that that had on the numbers, we were trying to keep things simple. So I think our plan, and as we go through the course of the year, maybe we'll rethink this, but our current plan was for calendar year 2018 to just leave the disclosure and the plan the same. So for all of '18, we leave new leasing from Lightower in the acquired bucket. And then as we roll into 2019, that would move from acquisitions over to the new leasing activity. That was our current plan. We thought that was a little more streamlined and simple in terms of understanding, so we didn't have too many moving pieces.
Richard Prentiss:
That makes sense. I think when you provided initial Lightower guidance, you said here's what you thought calendar '18 would be anyway, right?
Jay Brown:
Correct. That's correct.
Richard Prentiss:
Okay. All right. And then one other question. I appreciate the sensitivity on the long-term contracts not to get into -- was it escalators or pricing, but clearly, the carrier wants to get something out of it. You guys want to get something out of it. So should we expect that one of your asks would have been long-term contracts help us mitigate any longer-term churn? And was that done thinking about potential for M&A down the road or potential overbuilding? Just trying to think of -- obviously, two parties came at the table. Both sides wanted to make sure the economics work. Kind of help us understand what, on your side, you wanted to make sure you achieved out of that.
Jay Brown:
I think probably, fundamental to the conversation is our belief that when you look at the macro tower sites, as we have seen for several decades, those macro tower sites don't move. So we obviously value long-term extensions, which are reflected in the results as we push the escalator out over longer periods of time and has the uplift to site rental revenues associated with that straight-line impact. But we certainly don't believe, over the long term, that the carriers are going to move macro tower sites. So we would assume, in due course, leases on macro tower sites get extended, and that would not be a big driver in terms of our thinking of value that's traded there. That value is kind of near to the asset over a long period of time regardless of when ultimately you roll into the next term renewal. Around leasing activity, we just value what is going to go on the site and what's the price of that space that's being used and type of equipment that's going to be put on the tower and then run that out in order to figure out how to price any given contract. And we've talked about this over a long period of time. Whether it's committed or not committed, the value of doing some of these is that it gives some certainty and some line of sight to the carriers and reduces some paperwork, which, in turn, creates a little bit more speed for them. And so we found this to be valuable at points in time given the right set of circumstances and, in this case, the same thing. But I'll go back to the point I'd said earlier. We carried forward the base escalators and haven't seen anything changing in the broader pricing environment around the way we're pricing new leases, amendments or escalations in the contracts.
Richard Prentiss:
And the moat, if you will, of the tower is still holding as well as far as protected good asset, not worried about the overbuilding.
Jay Brown:
Not at all. The barriers to entry in this business are extremely high. And once the investment has been embedded into an individual site, it is -- it becomes a part of a designed network. And we see that very stable and have seen it over multiple renewals across multiple carriers for a long period of time.
Operator:
Next, we'll hear from Michael Rollins of Citi Investment Research.
Michael Rollins:
Could you talk a bit about what the specific tower organic site leasing growth rate was for the fourth quarter and maybe put that into perspective with where you see the industry right now?
Daniel Schlanger:
The fourth quarter was around 5% on the tower side, and I think it's in line generally with what the industry is doing. I think we're seeing our fair share of the activity given our portfolio of 40,000 assets across the U.S. And we think that that's going to continue for the end of 2018 and then beyond because, as Jay was mentioning, our carrier customers are investing to try to keep pace with the demand that's coming. We think our assets are extremely well positioned to benefit from that. And I think that is also reflected on these agreements that we were just talking about a second ago, is that all of those characteristics of our business come out with our customers continuing to renew with us at the terms that we've seen and at the activity levels that are increasing as we're seeing this growth in demand.
Michael Rollins:
And what's in your minds, if you look at the growth of your small cell and fiber business, what's the biggest constraint for that to grow faster? Is it just getting the booking? Is it just the time and labor to get small cells built? Is it capital? If you had to kind of rank order where you see things that may hold back growth in that business relative to sort of the broader commentary on small cells and fiber.
Jay Brown:
Well, it feels like the growth is running pretty fast at the moment, so it doesn't feel constrained. And I think that's reflected in kind of the numbers that we're talking about in terms of the growth that we're seeing with small cells and fiber. I would tell you, really big picture, if you go up 40,000 feet, we have a combination of 2 things that are happening around our fiber plant currently. There's a mix of the leasing that's going on that's related to adding additional, whether it's fiber solutions or small cells, to the assets that we've owned for a period of time and have built. And then there's activity that's driving revenue related to building new fiber plant. To the extent that we get orders from customers to go into markets that we don't have existing fiber or there's not existing fiber in that market for us to utilize, then we go down the path of constructing new networks there. And as we talked about that build cycle for us, it's about a two-year build cycle from start to finish. So some of the point that Dan was making earlier around us continuing to see the pipeline for new small cells continuing to build, some of those are going on fiber that's existing for which we can expeditiously get those tenants on the fiber. And then some of this is we're continuing to expand our footprint, and that's a 2-year cycle. So we're continuing -- to the points that I made in my comments earlier, we're continuing to expand what is the future opportunity as we're building additional assets. And by far, if you're really at a high-level talk about what's the biggest constraint to growth, it's the time it takes to own enough assets, but then you benefit from step 2, which is going back and adding additional leases to that existing footprint. And then at that point, you'll start to see the benefit of the returns as the assets age and we're able to incrementally add revenues to that existing plan.
Operator:
Colby Synesael of Cowen.
Colby Synesael:
Regarding the two long-term agreements that you signed in the quarter, I was curious if those included the opportunity for those two companies to add additional cell sites on Crown towers where they may not currently reside. And therefore, is that already reflected in, I guess, the step-up we saw in [indiscernible]? Or is it included, at least, in your new leasing activity guidance? And then secondly, when I look at the Lightower revenues in the fourth quarter, if you just kind of try to assume a full quarter benefit, call it, about $210 million of revenue or $840 million on an annualized basis versus your guidance of $850 million to $870 million for 2018, it seems like if you're going to be growing at high-single digits, which is what you've stated that business should be doing, that your $850 million to $870 million guidance is actually pretty conservative. And I'm just trying to make sure I'm looking at the numbers correctly.
Jay Brown:
Colby, on your first comment, again, we're hesitant to get into any specifics around the lease agreements that we signed with our customers for lots of reasons. So I'm probably going to beg off to...
Colby Synesael:
Can I ask you differently then? Because...
Jay Brown:
Yes, go ahead.
Colby Synesael:
Typically, when you sign a holistic agreement, assume in that additional cell sites? Or is it typically just focused on amendments of current cell sites?
Jay Brown:
I think what I would describe it as, generally, when we're talking to the customers, they're focused on trying to understand what the cost of a certain activity is, and then we're trying to give them the clarity of that, and then they're trying to go for speed. In most cases, the clarity and the speed element of why they would be interested in doing that would relate to locations where they already are because they have more of a sense of where their network is and what needs to happen to that network. So again, I don't want to speak specifically to the circumstances of these, but generically, I would tell you it's more likely to be related to amendment activities than it would be new leases. But if a customer wanted to come to us and commit to certain levels of new leasing activity, we'd certainly be open to talking to them about that conversation. So again, I don't want to get into specifics about what we did or didn't do, but we'd be open to both. With regards to Lightower, I think you've done the math correctly, or you've repeated the numbers that we've given accurately. So we'll see how the year plays out and then update based on our performance and what our outlook is for future periods.
Operator:
Next, we'll hear from Jonathan Atkin of RBC.
Jonathan Atkin:
So a couple of things. I was interested in just sort of the traditional enterprise fiber business going back to, say, Sunesys and how that has trended and then perspectively or how things are going kind of on the Lightower side and broader just kind of the non-telecom -- or the non-mobile infrastructure fiber assets and how to think about the growth out there. And then secondly, I was interested in your thoughts on the DISH spectrum and opportunities for seeing some activity on your towers from that deployment.
Jay Brown:
Now on the first question, the activity that we've seen, whether you go back and look at Sunesys or Wilcon, FiberNet, others, had been in line with what we talked about with regards to our expectations around Lightower. And I've talked about it a couple of times on the call this morning. We've seen that play out over the period of time that we've owned the assets both in terms of the new leasing activity as well as the churn levels. And the financial returns on incremental investment of capital around that business has played out in line with what our expectations have been and in line with what we're talking about with regards to Lightower specifically. On your second question around DISH, again, I don't want to get into any specific customers, and so I won't speak to the conversations that we're having with them. I would tell you, broadly, we haven't included anything in our 2018 outlook related to the deployment of that spectrum. There is a meaningful amount of spectrum that's lying fallow in the hands of various potential users of wireless network. Some of those -- some of that spectrum have periods of time that starts to come to fruition here in the next couple of years, where, in order to maintain the license, the spectrum has to be deployed and developed on towers. We think we'll benefit from the deployment of that spectrum as it's deployed in the coming years, but it's not included in our 2018 outlook.
Daniel Schlanger:
And Jon, I think it just plays into the overall theme that we're talking about, which is to meet the demand and the growth in demand that we're seeing and what our customers are seeing. They're going to look to using more spectrum, densifying the network and using as much technology as they can. And no matter how that plays out, we're in position to take advantage of it. So we're just looking out and seeing that all the trends are moving in the right direction. And whether DISH, like you're talking about specifically, or anybody else is going to use more spectrum or cell densification or newer technologies is going to play to our benefit.
Jonathan Atkin:
And then on the last call, we discussed a little bit vapor IO. Is there any update that you can provide on that project?
Jay Brown:
Well, we're continuing to do some work in trials at the edge. To the point that I made earlier around towers and small cells being connected with high-capacity fiber, a part of that is driven by the need to push computing tower to the very edge of the network. So we're continuing to see opportunities to trial activities and learn about that business. We believe that part of the driver of the devices that are going to be used, whether it's augmented reality, virtual reality, autonomous cars, a lot of the Internet of Things applications, the latency required in order to make those devices work effectively is going to require not only high-speed fiber, dense fiber networks and close proximity to the locations where they are distributed from things like small cells, but it's also going to require computing power at the very edge of the network. So we're continuing to work on that. We believe that will be a long-term driver of the need for our infrastructure, and so we're still in the learning and trial phase.
Operator:
Next, we'll hear from Nick Del Deo of MoffettNathanson.
Nicholas Del Deo:
First, it looks like new leasing activity in the quarter was a bit shy of the expectation you laid out in the third quarter, with full year new leasing activity coming at $166 million versus $172 million midpoint you indicated last quarter. Can you give some detail around what might have happened, if it was in any way related to the extensions you signed or if there's anything else we should bear in mind?
Daniel Schlanger:
Yes. Nick, what happened there is we typically have some -- at the end of the year, some -- in every quarter some nonrecurring or cleanup-type items that come in. That includes things like back billing for periods in the past and things of that nature, and we just didn't see that in the fourth quarter this year. So that's what caused that $6 million reduction. But as you can see, when you look at 2018, we have everything that is remaining the same both in terms of the new leasing activity and the overall growth in revenues for organic site contribution, site rental revenues and otherwise. And so it didn't impact the jumping off point in order to impact the 2018 guidance.
Nicholas Del Deo:
Okay, got it. That's helpful. And second, now that you've owned Lightower for almost three months, I mean, still a short period of time, but you've kind of been able to look under the hood. Can you talk about anything you might have encountered or observed that you didn't expect, whether positive surprises or maybe some challenges? And can you also touch on management retention?
Jay Brown:
Sure. So far, from an operating results expectation and as well as the outlook, everything is in line with what our expectations were as we went through the diligence period. As you know, we get the best -- these questions a lot about the team. And if you remember, when we announced the transaction, we didn't assume or model any synergies associated with any of these transitions. And a great -- as we look at the team, we have a great deal of respect for what they've been able to build and develop as a business over a long period of time. And I would put into this category not just the Lightower team but each of the fiber acquisitions that we've done over the last several years. And our experience has been, with each of the acquisitions, including, most recently, Lightower, these acquisitions bring with them a tremendous amount of talent and experience and insight into the business. And so we're planning to grow and build those businesses because we think the platforms that they have and the markets in which they operate are valuable and able to be expanded. And the revenue synergy here of us being able to add that kind of activity across not just the 30,000 miles of fiber that came from each of those -- from the totality of those fiber companies but the 30,000 miles of fiber that we brought to the mix has an extraordinary amount of potential revenue synergies there, and so we're looking to capture that opportunity. So we're working hard at the moment to welcome about 900 new employees to Crown Castle and talk to them about why Crown Castle is a great place to be and why there's a lot of opportunity for them personally to work on the opportunity ahead for us as a company. So I know probably a bunch of them are listening to the call this morning, and we're certainly glad to have them and hope that they'll stay for a long period of time and help us build the business that I was articulating earlier in the call.
Operator:
Phil Cusick of JPMorgan has our next question.
Yong Choe:
This is Richard for Phil. I wanted to follow up on the long-term contracts, the activity and extensions. One, were these one-offs? And two, how long does it take to put these together? Can they come together pretty quickly? Then I have another follow-up.
Jay Brown:
Yes. Richard, again, I don't think we're going to comment specifically on the customer agreements. So we're in constant dialogue, as you would expect, with each of our customers, and these things develop as they do in the normal course of conversation.
Yong Choe:
And then, I guess, the tower services business seems to have picked up a little bit. Is that indicative of what we should expect kind of going forward? Or is the activity more in-quarter? Or is it kind of showing that tower growth in the future can ramp?
Jay Brown:
The services business is tied to new leasing activity, and leasing activity, as we're suggesting in 2018, slightly up on the tower side from 2017. Generally, that is directionally followed by the services business.
Operator:
Amir Rozwadowski of Barclays.
Amir Rozwadowski:
I wanted to touch upon or go back to some of the prior questions around how you're looking at sort of co-location opportunities versus self-fulfillment. We've seen a number of announcements in which carriers, one in particular, are working with cable providers in order to provide additional densification. One, do you see that as a -- does that fall into the banner of sort of the self-fulfillment opportunity that you guys mentioned? And obviously, you folks have made very strong investments into the fiber world. Do you believe that those types of assets can provide the necessary backhaul capacity that you expect to need to support the kind of traffic growth that you're expecting down the future?
Jay Brown:
Sure, Amir. I would say that, that's an example of self-fulfillment, where the carriers are looking for opportunities given the scale and number of small cells that are coming and the investment that's going to have to happen around cell site densification. I believe you're going to see them search for and find a number of different partnerships. And that is an example of a party that's providing capital, and they're using it to deploy small cells and would be an example of what I was speaking to earlier around self-performing the deployment of small cells.
Amir Rozwadowski:
Okay. That's helpful. And then one follow-up, if I may. I think last spring or summer, there was a notable pickup in discussions around various technology or Silicon Valley types that we're looking at, how they could leverage your assets. Any update there on any potential developments that have taken place or any color that you can provide?
Jay Brown:
Well, in the litany of things that I mentioned, whether it's autonomous cars, virtual and augmented reality, Internet of Things across virtually every business and all industry, people are looking to utilize wireless as a means by finding cost efficiencies inside of their business. And so the conversations have continued with many of the parties that we talked about last year and broadened. And I think we like where we're positioned, where our infrastructure sits in that ecosystem because the infrastructure is necessary for any of those devices to ultimately work and fulfill their function. What's exciting to us is, in most cases, the applications that are being looked at, they require faster speeds and lower latency, which -- there's two ways to solve that, additional spectrum can be owned, for which that's a very limited resource; and additional infrastructure across which to deploy that spectrum. And we sit in a very good place on the infrastructure side of that as the carriers want to deploy spectrum. In order to provide not just carriers but more broadly, as people look to try to figure out how we can get consumers to use devices that have lower latency and greater speeds, the infrastructure is required to accomplish that. So we feel like we sit in a sweet spot there from fiber and towers because both are going to be necessary in order to provide those kind of services to the consumer.
Daniel Schlanger:
And I think importantly, on the fiber side, we do see that, that is a differentiator there in that -- one of your questions around whether the existing fiber could withstand all of the demand that's coming, I think it's pretty clear from our actions. We don't believe so because what we're looking for is to continue to add dense deep metro fiber in the top markets in the U.S. because we don't see that what's there now is going to be able to carry all of the data that's going to be required to move -- to get these applications to people wherever they are. So we feel really good about our investment and what it looks like going forward because of that.
Operator:
Next, we'll hear from Spencer Kurn of New Street Research.
Spencer Kurn:
So Sprint has recently signed two deals with Altice and Cox to leverage their backhaul infrastructure for small cells. I just want to get your impression on any thoughts around how these agreements impact your view on the lease-up potential for your -- the fiber that you've been acquiring.
Jay Brown:
I would take it as testimony against my PowerPoint that it means that small cells are necessary, and there's going to be a lot of them, and carriers are going to use self-perform and multiple co-location infrastructure providers to do that. So I think it's a testimony of exactly all the things that we've been saying on the call and have for several years now that small cells are going to be needed by all carriers across all markets, and there's going to be a lot of them.
Daniel Schlanger:
And also a validation that the fiber-fed small cell is the preferred method at this point given the data that's going to have to be moved across the small cell network. So I think that what it shows, like Jay is saying, is there's a lot of activity. Most of it's going to be fiber-fed or fiber backhaul, and we're in the best position, we think, in the markets where we have that fiber to take up that lease-up opportunity. But we'll always see that our customers will look at various alternatives. There's just too much work to go around to expect that we're going to get all of it more than we want to necessarily. So we're working with our customers to try to figure out where we make the most sense and understand there are going to be places where that may not be true.
Spencer Kurn:
Got it. And just one follow-up, if I may. Have you had many discussions around using your infrastructure for fixed wireless broadband with any of your customers?
Jay Brown:
We have had that conversation, yes.
Operator:
Tim Horan of Oppenheimer.
Timothy Horan:
Just back to the Verizon question on the fiber. I guess Verizon's kind of arguing they're using a new generation of passive optical technology with multiple wavelengths and a lot more speeds. And they don't want to just serve the wireless market. They want to serve multiple markets. They also want to have kind of unique infrastructure, that they feel, historically, if they have unique infrastructure, they can create -- sell new services and gain market share. And I guess there's also some questions the cable -- separately, the cable companies are basically saying they have unique power at the edges of the network that are difficult for other people to kind of replicate what they have. I guess just curious, can your network support that type of service offering that Verizon's talking about as it's currently structured either the fiber or the conduits? And how do you argue against the uniqueness that they're kind of looking for?
Jay Brown:
Yes. I think I would go back to the basic premise of our business is that our carrier customers as well as, more broadly, all customers, they're looking for the lowest-cost solution, and they want it as fast to market as possible. We're not going to be the infrastructure builder of fiber everywhere in the United States. We have focused -- as we've talked about, the vast majority of our investment has been in kind of the top 25 markets. We've got significant plants in 23 of the top 25 markets in the U.S., and we are very well positioned to provide that fiber at a -- on a very timely basis at a very attractive cost profile to the customers. And I believe you will see, over a long period of time, that low cost and speed will win, as it has on the tower side and on the small cell side for a period of time. With regards to the technologies that are put at either end of the fiber, we're building high-capacity fiber. So there are numerous strands and lots of capacity on the fiber that we're putting in the ground. And if we get to the point where we've filled up and used up all of the fiber that we're putting in, the returns that we will have achieved on that basis will be in excess of what we're underwriting, and then it will be a great outcome for our company and for our shareholders. So I feel like we're well positioned for what's coming.
Timothy Horan:
And Jay, just a follow-up. Can you just compare how this leasing activity for either LTE advanced 5G compares to the original LTE buildouts a few years ago? Maybe what stage are we in? Do you think it will progress in kind of a similar way that we ramped up for a couple of years?
Jay Brown:
In the 3G, 4G environment, if you try to compare that to 5G today, it's difficult to make the comparison. One, we're at the conversation stage around 5G, so we don't believe hardly any of the activity that we're currently seeing is really 5G-related. We underwrote the world and our investments, as I talked about earlier, based on existing applications, which would be 4G wireless world, and did not project what 5G could mean. In a 5G environment, the densification that's required is a stairstep change from what has happened in the past. Most of what happened when we went from 3G to 4G was around increasing some capacity in the network by adding additional cell sites, but most of the activity actually occurred on the sites where they're already existing, and we saw additional co-location on new tower sites. The densification that's, at least, envisaged in a 5G world requires not just macro sites but additional sites in the form of small cells that fill in and increase the overall capacity of the network. And that's very different than anything we've ever seen in any of the technology moves from 1G to 2G, 3G, 4G. We believe, fundamentally, the infrastructure is going to change as we move into a 5G world, and we're seeing the benefit of that in 4G. If 5G ultimately comes to fruition like we believe it will, we've positioned the company to benefit in the same way with small cells and fiber that we benefited over the last couple of decades from the macro tower investments that we made.
Operator:
Brandon Nispel of KeyBanc.
Brandon Nispel:
Dan, I'm wondering if it makes -- if you think about the business and how you're segmenting it now, that it makes sense to break up the fiber and small cell segment from a reporting standpoint to help investors get a better view on the business. It seems like there's certainly different characteristics between the customer bases and the churn. And then maybe another question. What percentage of total capital investments do you think carriers are going to spend on macro versus small cells -- macro towers versus small cells today? And where does it go in the future? I mean, Verizon essentially guided to flat CapEx year-over-year but also has plans for a significant fiber build. I'm just trying to get a sense of how the mix could shift over time.
Daniel Schlanger:
Yes. Thanks, Brandon. I'll start with the first question. The key to our business is actually the asset that underlies the services we provide, and that asset is towers and fiber. And so what we're going to do going forward is what we've done up to date, which is give more color around the revenue source because we can break that up pretty easily between small cells and fiber. But once you get past that, it's hard to break anything else out because we're using the same asset to deliver a very similar service to multiple customers. So what we're trying to do, as Jay pointed out, that it works so well on towers, you just leverage that infrastructure again and again. So we actually believe that the appropriate breakdown of this business is what we've done now, which is towers and fiber, and we don't see that changing going forward. What we will continue to do is give more color, like we have, around the revenue, the new leasing activity, the escalators and churn associated with each of the towers, fiber solutions and small cell businesses to try to get more color for investors to be able to see.
Jay Brown:
To your second question, the investment, you can look at our operating results, as we've mentioned a couple of times on the call, around new leasing activity. New leasing activity around towers in calendar year 2018 is about $110 million is what our expectation is for the year. Small cells is about $55 million of new leasing activity in 2018. I don't want to give any expectation beyond calendar year 2018, but we do expect there's going to continue to be meaningful investment and leasing activity across both components of our business, both towers and small cells, for a long period of time. And I think at a minimum, one of the things that you could read into are customer agreements that we talked about. We talked about, from a pricing environment, the pricing environment continues. The escalation provisions are carried forward on the same terms, that the sites that are being used by the carriers today are going to continue to need to be used for a long period of time and into the future, and there's more activity coming on them to the point that they're willing to contract and commit to that. So I think you will continue to see strong activity across both segments, the growth rates, as we've talked about, being higher on small cells than they are on towers.
Daniel Schlanger:
I think one of the benefits of our company as we've set ourselves up to where -- if that mix changes from year to year, it doesn't really impact our business positively or negatively because we're getting a good portion of them. So we feel like -- we're talking about earlier, however our customers choose to try to improve their networks to meet their demand, that we're positioned to get that spend. And that's what I think has been kind of a unique position that we put Crown Castle in.
Operator:
Robert Gutman of Guggenheim.
Robert Gutman:
In the fourth quarter, we saw construction CapEx jump up meaningfully to $336 million. That's like 40% sequentially and 30% year-over-year. What was driving that? And does it reset to a lower rate going forward? Or will it stay at an elevated -- relatively elevated level?
Jay Brown:
Robert, that construction business tends to be heavily weighted towards the back half of the year. So part of what you saw in the quarter-over-quarter moves in calendar year 2017, I would tell you it's not an unreasonable expectation. As you look at the business, I would expect later quarters in the year to have more CapEx than earlier quarters, just generally speaking. The move year-over-year has to do with the scale of the business and how much bigger our business is because of the amount of activity. As a forecast for what to expect going forward, it's really going to come down to how much activity you will see and how big is the pipeline of activity to be built in future periods. And if we see a meaningful step-up in terms of what that pipeline is and what that looks like, we'll certainly update you on that as we go.
Robert Gutman:
And I've got one follow-up. I also noticed that the acquisition -- now with several months of Lightower under your control, it looks like you've lowered the acquisition and integration expense by about $19 million. I was just wondering what you've seen that underlies that.
Jay Brown:
I think that's because a portion of it came in, in 2017, when we previously had expected it was all going to be in '18 because we weren't closing until January of 2018. So no change in overall dollars.
Operator:
We'll take that from Batya Levi of UBS.
Batya Levi:
Just a couple of quick follow-ups. First, can you maybe provide a little bit more color on how much in total CapEx you're budgeting for this year? And maybe if you could break it into buckets. And the second question on Lightower integration. As you integrate the assets, are you finding any maybe synergy opportunities on the cost side, maybe procurement, best practices? And how long do you think that it would take to fully integrate the assets that you might be willing to look at more M&A opportunities?
Daniel Schlanger:
Yes, Batya. Starting with the CapEx conversation. We're going to be, in '18, around $1.5 billion of CapEx. And what we've said, it'd be in the same neighborhood of what we've done historically in terms of land purchases and sustaining capital, so around $100 million each for those. It will be up a little bit on sustaining because we've incorporated Lightower in 2018 versus 2017. But as Jay pointed out earlier, majority of that is really going to be into building new assets and putting it into small cell deployments that we've been talking about to meet the pipeline that we have in place as well as to expand the fiber footprint with regard to the fiber solutions business.
Jay Brown:
On your second question around synergies, we don't see any synergies at this point, to I think a question earlier on the call, around people. We may find, over time, if we integrate the asset and start to expand, that there are some cost synergies that we're able to achieve from suppliers and other sources. But our focus is really on the growth opportunity that is in front of us, and we believe the revenue synergies here are really the greatest opportunity in front. So we're focused on having conversations around how do we grow the business and capture the opportunity that's in front of us. And over time, we may find that there are some cost synergies, but we'd certainly expect, with regards to the people that we've gained over these various acquisitions, that there really are not any cost synergies there around people, which is a significant portion of the cost structure. With regards to future activities and investment, it's going to take us a little bit of time to invest -- to digest the assets that we've acquired, Lightower being the most recent large acquisition. As I mentioned in the comments, we've done 2 other large acquisitions in 2017 that we're in the middle of integrating into the portfolio. So it's going to take us a little bit of time to digest. Our criteria in terms of how we think about assets and think that would be interesting to us has remained the same. We're focused on markets where we think we can share the asset across multiple parties. It needs to be high-capacity fiber in dense urban areas, and that is a relatively limited targeted set of assets. And I don't know that there will be another asset that will be of interest to us. But in the short term here, I think it we're going to be digesting the assets that we found. We're pleased with what we found so far and glad the assets are performing in line with our expectations as we went through diligence. Well, with that, I'll wrap up the call this morning. Appreciate everyone joining. Obviously, I want to thank all of our employees who worked incredibly hard over 2017 not only to deliver on the results that we delivered but also the significant activities that are going on related to the integration of the assets that we've acquired. Appreciate everyone's help on that and excited about what's in store for Crown Castle. Thanks so much.
Operator:
That does conclude today's conference. Thank you all for your participation. You may now disconnect.
Executives:
Son Nguyen - VP Corporate Finance Jay Brown - President and CEO Daniel Schlanger - SVP and CFO
Analysts:
Brett Feldman - Goldman Sachs Simon Flannery - Morgan Stanley Matthew Niknam - Deutsche Bank Jonathan Atkin - RBC Capital Markets Amir Rozwadowski - Barclays Nick Del Deo - MoffettNathanson Colby Synesael - Cowen and Company Tim Horan - Oppenheimer Mike Rollins - Citi Walter Piecyk - BTIG Batya Levi - UBS Spencer Kurn - New Street Research Brandon Nispel - Keybanc Capital Markets
Operator:
Good day, and welcome to the Crown Castle International Q3 2017 Earnings Call. Today's conference is being recorded. At this time, I'd like to turn the conference over to Mr. Son Nguyen. Please go ahead.
Son Nguyen:
Thank you, Gina, and good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us today as we review our third quarter 2017 results. With me on the call this morning are Jay Brown, Crown Castle's Chief Executive Officer; and Dan Schlanger, Crown Castle's Chief Financial Officer. To aid the discussion, we have posted supplemental materials in the Investor section of our website at crowncastle.com, which we will refer to throughout the call this morning. This conference call will contain forward-looking statements, which are subject to certain risks, uncertainties and assumptions, and actual results may vary materially from those expected. Information about potential factors which could affect our results is available in the press release and the Risk Factors section of the Company's SEC filings. Our statements are made as of today, October 19, 2017, and we assume no obligations to update any forward-looking statements. In addition, today's call includes discussion of certain non-GAAP financial measures. Tables reconciling these non-GAAP financial measures are available in the supplemental information package in the Investor section of the Company's website at crowncastle.com. With that, I'll turn the call over to Jay.
Jay Brown:
Thanks, Son, and thank you everyone, for joining us on the call this morning. As you saw from our press release yesterday, we continue to build on our track record of delivering great financial results with another strong quarter that exceeded our expectations. As Dan will discuss in further detail, our third results and 2018 outlook clearly demonstrate how strong our business is performing today and our expectation of positive trends will continue into 2018. As a result of the sustainability and growth in our cash flow we’re increasing our quarterly common stock dividend by a 11% per share reflecting our expectations of continued growth in 2018 and the anticipated contribution from the pending acquisition of Lightower which remains on track to close by year end. As we look beyond 2018, we see a tremendous opportunity to leverage our unparallel portfolio of towers, small cells and fiber to deliver 7% to 8% long term annual growth and dividends per share by capitalizing on the attractive secular growth trends, driving demands for our leading portfolio of shared communications infrastructure assets. To keep pace with the anticipated growth and data we expect significant investments by our customers across our towers, small cells and fiber for years to come. According to industry estimate mobile data is expected to grow nearly 40% annually through 2021 largely tied to 4G use cases including the continued adoption of high bandwidth application such as mobile video and the increasing number of connective devices. These trends further highlighted by the carriers recent moves to unwanted data plans in the U.S. which we believe are likely to result in our customer competing our network quality and speed. Similar to the wireless industry, the expected 20% annual growth in wired data traffic is driving additional demand across our dense natural fiber asset. To meet this demand our strategy is to provide differentiated fiber solution that serve high bandwidth, multi location customers such as large enterprises, healthcare providers, educational institution and carriers. This strategy allows us to enhance our competitive position in small cells by increasing the opportunities we serve with the underlying fiber assets, thereby improving the already attractive shared economic model we see in our small cell business. Turning to the bigger picture, our portfolio of towers, small cells and fiber uniquely positions Crown Castle to take advantage of the investments our customers are making to augment their network. Our asset provides the mission critical infrastructure required for the ongoing shift to a world where mobile is the platform of choice for an ever more digital economy. This transition is impacting every industry and will serve to increase the long term value of our infrastructure asset. We believe all of this expected investment activity will provide a long run way of growth, cash flow, sustained growth over across our portfolio of assets supporting our long term annual dividend growth target of 7% to 8%. To-date we’ve underwritten our investments based on 4G and existing applications alone. But we believe there is more to come. This is similar to the late 1990s when we underwrote tower acquisitions assuming all these voice applications. Overtime as the wireless used cases had expanded the infrastructure has played a vital role and our growth and returns have followed. We believe a sequel to that movie is coming. As we look further out the development of 5G has the potential to revolutionize how businesses in all industries operate and further extend a runway of growth across our infrastructure asset. We believe the faster data speed and lower latency powered by 5G will create new business models that are hard to imagine today. Much in the same way that 10 years ago the iPhone and a transition from 3G to 4G dramatically changed the way consumers live and work. To-date mobile data traffic has been largely one way with end users primarily pulling data from the wireless network. As we look forward and consider the potential impact of the merging technology including virtual and augmented reality, autonomous and smart city applications to name just a few we believe these applications will likely drive additional data growth as the traffic becomes two way, exchange of across the wireless network. As an example, Intel estimate set of single autonomous vehicle would generate approximately 4 terabytes of data per hour and a half of drive path. To put that into perspective that equals the same amount of data used by approximately a 1,000 mobile subscribers on a monthly basis. The trend towards greater reliance on wireless network points to the need for carriers to continue to invest in hyper dense network that powers the small cells all connected by high capacity fiber. In advance of deploying 5G the architecture of wireless networks will continue to evolve as carriers preposition their networks to support new business models and applications towered by 5G. Importantly our customers are making many of those investments today by augmenting their macro network with the deployment of fiber asset small cells and RAM to increase the capacity, efficiency and agility of their network as they meet their demand of a 4G world. As they evolve we believe the critical elements of the wireless network will continue to consist of towers which provide the critical foundation for coverage and capacity. Small cells which are flowed traffic and bolstered capacity in areas of the network where data demand is the greater. And fiber which provides the connective tissue needed to create any integrated network of towers and small cells. With approximately 40, 000 towers, 50, 000 small cells on air who are under contract and more than 60,000 route miles of dense metro fiber performance for the Lightower acquisition. Crown Castle is the only infrastructure provider in the U.S. that can provide these elements at scale. We have positioned the company for both what is needed now and for what we believe will be needed as wireless networks continue to densify the needs of coming data demand or other while creating value for our shareholders. A significant driver of our shareholder value creation is our dividend. Over the last four years, we have tripled our dividends from an annualized $1.40 per share to the current $4.20 per share. Looking forward we remain confident if our ability to deliver on our stated goal, driving long term annual growth and dividends of 7% to 8% supported by expected growth and AFFO which when combined with our current yield offers a very compelling investment opportunity. Over the last 20 years, we’ve intentionally positioned our firm through thoughtful and disciplined investment to be at the leading edge of the deployment of wireless network. Our team has consistently made those strategic investments well in advance when the market opportunity had fully materialized. For example, as I mentioned before we began investing in towers in 1996 and have simply assembled our leading portfolio of towers across all of the top U.S. market. Well, it is compliant with those early investments to turn into the tower business we know today, the belief in the underlying fundamentals of the shared infrastructure model drove our team to make those investment decision. The same is true today of small cells where more recently we’ve strategically built upon our expertise and shared wireless infrastructure to extend our capability to include small cells and fiber in 23 of the top 25 U.S. markets pro forma for the pending lightower acquisition. As with the early tower investments, we started investing in small cells in advance of the market fully appreciating their importance and the development of networks starting with our acquisition of new path in 2010. Open away, our strategy is to grow our dividend by being a leading provider of the essential infrastructure needed to deploy wireless networks in the U.S. driven by our focus on meeting our customers’ needs while positioning Crown Capital for the long term. Since 2007 pursuing this strategy has resulted in us doubling our tower portfolio, developing a market leadership position in small cells and securing more than 60,000 route miles of high capacity, dense fiber in top U.S. markets. All the while growing our AFFO per share by 13% on an annualized basis returning approximately $6 billion to our shareholders in dividends and share purchases and delivering shareholders more than two times the total returns generated by the S&P 500 over that time period and I believe there is much more to come. And with that I’ll turn the call over to Dan.
Daniel Schlanger:
Thanks Jay, and good morning everyone. We’ve a lot of good things to discuss today including our 2018 outlook. But I would like to start with an overview of third quarter results on slide 4. Our third quarter results for site rental revenues and adjusted EBITDA were at the high end of our previously provided third quarter 2017 outlook, while asset sale exceeded the high end of guidance driven in large part by the continued help and low keeping environment. For AFFO, the quarter benefited from approximately $5 million lower than expected sustaining capital expenditures. This benefit was due to timing and we expect that capital will now be spent during the fourth quarter. Adjusting for the time use benefit we still would have exceeded the high end of our third quarter outlook for AFFO. Moving onto investment activity, during the third quarter we invested approximately $288 million in capital expenditures consisting of $24 million of sustaining capital expenditures and approximately $264 million for discretionary investment opportunities including $24 million of land acquisition. In July we raised approximately $7 billion of equity in debt capital which will impact full year 2017 results. As that capital is year marked upon the pending acquisition of Lightower which we expect to close by the end of this year. During the quarter we continued to return significant capital to our shareholders through our quarterly common stock dividend of $386 million in the aggregate or $0.95 per share. Turning to slide five, our updated full year 2017 outlook reflects the out-performance during the third quarter and a modest increase in leasing expectations during the fourth quarter offset by expected higher repair and maintenance expenses driven by hurricanes Harvey, Irma and Jose. The increase in repair and maintenance expense from these three hurricanes is primarily related to having crews on standby in preparation for the storms as well as inspection, debris removal and responding to customers following the hurricanes. I want to thank all of our employees who have worked tirelessly in the wake of these natural disasters to help get our customers assets back on online. During through very stressful times they went above and beyond the call of duty and I'm proud to work at a company with employees like ours. Importantly though our assets did not sustain significant damage and we do not anticipate additional impact from those hurricanes subsequent to the fourth quarter 2017. Given these puts and takes and adjusting to exclude the impact of the Lightower financings our full year 2017 outlook for AFFO and AFFO per share remains unchanged from our previous guidance of $ 1.826 billion and $4.99 per share respectively. Turning to slide six, our full year 2018 outlook highlights include 10% growth in AFFO per share from a 2017 figure of $4.99 per share which exclude the impact of the Lightower financings, the $5.50 per share in 2018 and a 11% increase to our dividends from an annualized $3.80 per share to an annualized $4.20 per share demonstrating our confidence in the organic growth of our business in the expected accretion in the pending acquisition of Lightower and an acceleration of new leasing activity during 2018. Focusing on these specifics as shown on slide seven, our expectations for growth and site rental revenues of approximately $1.044 billion at the midpoint is driven by approximately $205 million of organic contribution to site rental revenues plus the full year contribution of Lightower an additional half year from the Wilcon. Approximately $205 million of organic contribution site rental revenues is comprised of new leasing activity of approximate $205 million compared to approximately $172 million in 2017. The expected acceleration includes new leasing activity in 2018 of approximately $110 million for towers up from $105 million in 2017. $55 million for small cells up from $40 million in 2017 and $45 million for fiber solutions up from $25 million in 2017. In addition to new leasing activity, organic growth is also supported by annual contracted tenant escalators which we expect will contribute approximately $85 million in growth during 2018 in line with 2017. Growth from tenant escalation is offset by tenant non-renewal of approximately $85 million which is slightly lower than what we expect in 2017 to arrive at an organic growth of approximately $205 million up from approximately $166 million in 2017. Change in straight line adjustment is expected to remain consistent with 2017 offsetting organic contribution to site rental revenues by approximately $55 million in 2018. We have not included any contribution from the FirstNet as part of our 2018 outlook. We are however optimistic about the FirstNet rollout and recognize there is additional growth potential once the deployment begins. Turning to slide eight, I would like you to the expected AFFO of approximately $460 million at the midpoint of outlook from 2017 to 2018. Similar to site rental revenues Lightower is expected to be a significant contributor to AFFO growth in 2019 adding approximately $345 million to AFFO meta-finance. Starting on the left organic contribution to site rental revenues growth at the midpoint of $205 million is partially offset by $65 million increase in operating and G&A expense. Beyond the typical cost escalations in the business this increase is primarily related to the additional staff we've added throughout 2017 to support growth at our small cell business including investments related to increasing annual node production as we work through our robust backlog of nodes to be brought on air through 2019. A significant portion of the increased headcount will be in place as we exit 2017. Continuing on contribution to network services is expected to be in line with 2017 and finally 2018 AFFO growth is expected to be negatively impacted by approximately $20 million on a net basis of other items. These items include changes in cash interest expense, sustaining capital expenditures, and contribution from acquisitions that closed in 2017. We expect to generate 10% growth in AFFO per share in 2018 based on the midpoint of our initial guidance after excluding the impact of the Lightower financings in 2017. As we previously mentioned with the significant opportunities ahead and based on our expectations for 2018 including the contribution from Lightower we've increased our quarterly dividend by 11% per share further adding to our track record of dividend growth. Returning capital to shareholders through a growing dividend aligns well with our business profile defined by high-quality in growing long-term recurring cash flows. To wrap up we remain confident that our shared communication infrastructure portfolio is well-positioned to generate significant growth of the long-term as our strategy aligns with where the market is today and where we believe it is headed in future while at the same time allowing us to return significant capital to our shareholders through dividends. Our visibility in the near-term fundamental and positioning over the long-term give us confidence in our ability to grow AFFO, return capital to shareholders and invest in the future all while we deliver on our target long-term dividend growth rate of 7% to 8% per year over the coming years. With that Gina, I would like to open the call to questions.
Operator:
Thank you. [Operator Instruction] And we will take our first question from Brett Feldman of Goldman Sachs.
Brett Feldman:
Thanks for taking the questions. I was hoping we can try and spend a little more time on packing the outlook you have for organic leasing activity in 2018, it sounds like your towers is going to be pretty stable but you're expecting a step up on the small cell side. So I was hoping you could maybe help us understand what's giving you the visibility into that and then just on the quarter itself I am curious how much of the growth in the small cell business, how much is the organic growth was coming from fiber, you had already deployed. So you're getting more revenue on existing fiber versus how much that was deployed in the new fiber? Thanks.
Jay Brown:
So on the first one Brett, to your comment in each of the three areas that we talked ABOUT both towers, small cells and fiber we expect the contribution from new revenue growth to be higher in 2018 than it was in 2017. Towers is up about 5% from about 105 million to 110 million, small cells is up from about 40 million to 55 million and then fiber, fiber solutions is up 25 to 45. So we are seeing that growth across the board in each of the three areas where we are selling communications space on communication asset. To your second question I think I would point to the comments that made recently which would reflect the entire pipeline of small cells. This would be true in the quarter as well as true in our outlook for 18 that we expect about 70% of the activity that we are seeing on small cell to be anchored builds and we would describe that as building new fiber to cover geographic range plus the accretion for Lightower and we are were pretty, we think the Lightower deal is going to close by the end of the year and so we are confident and not wanted to declare the dividend based on that. But I think it's both a gift and part of Lightower though to answer your first question. On the second question on FirstNet, I don't get specifically into any one customer what we assumed in the growth but we did not in the 2018 outlook that we did not put in anything from assuming that with any deployment of FirstNet obviously we’ve read and had conversations about what that will likely look like over time but at this point we don't have enough visibility to really put it into our 2018 numbers to the extent we had develops as we get into the course of 18 we will happy to update the outlook based on it.
David Barden:
Thanks Jay and if I could just ask one follow-up so I know that you guys when you guide to the churn for the metro, I believe clear wire you kind of look at the – you go to the worst possible case in terms of tearing down sites immediately and the highest revenue sites first but obviously given general conversations that we've been hearing and reported in the market has there been any change in activity level and decommissioning in that portfolio of towers that you have been able to detect?
Jay Brown:
You are right, and in fact to say, we’ve talked about churn over the years. We have always put in kind of the book end and think about it and talk about at the book end ultimately what's realized tends to be less than that bookend of the worst case scenario. As we would think about 2018 our outlook would assume basically what we have visibility to and still some of the worst case if everything comes down. Our experiences has been it's not as significant as the bookend assuming that everything comes down but I would tell you based on kind of when we talk big picture about 7% to 8% growth in dividends over the long-term we try to be balanced in that view. So a part of that balancing is what's going to happen with churn and we assume kind of the worst case scenario in that longer term view and then our short term view we will adjust that based on what we actually earned from the carriers as we get closer to those conversations.
David Barden:
Okay. Thanks Jay.
Operator:
And we will take our next question from Simon Flannery of Morgan Stanley.
Simon Flannery:
Thank you very much. Good morning. Maybe you can just touch on the current small cell activity just I know sometimes you give us some examples of co-location activity, the tenants per node and so forth. Any color you could give us about sort of the operational performance this quarter would be great? And then on Lightower, any more color on what you need to do to get this closed this right, going to right at year end or might be earlier the map?
Jay Brown:
On the first question, small cell activity is continuing to deliver what we expected, obviously as you can see from the step to 18 we think the activity level is going to increase in 18, the teams are working at those nodes on air and based on how we’ve been able to align the operations, you’re seeing the step in the results in 18 as a result of the operating capabilities of the team. The other thing I would point to is some of the case studies that we talked to when we did the Lightower acquisition on the call, we’re see those return dynamics continue to play out for the assets that we’ve owned for a long period of time and the densest markets in the U.S. those are continuing to see healthy leasing activity at a rate that’s about twice a level of lease out that we’ve seen historically in the tower business so we’ve continued to see that play out. And then from a return standpoint, the returns continue to be very attractive initial yields in the 6% to 7% with anchor build and then as we add additional tenants the returns move into the teams and beyond as we lease up beyond that and that’s been the operating performance that’s continued to remain in the quarter. On Lightower we’re far enough along in terms approvals as we go through federal and state approvals that were required on the transaction to be confident that at this point that we will be able to close it before we get to the end of the year. We’re obviously working as hard as we can to close it as quickly as we can and to the extent that we clear all of the hurdles we will give you an update when we clear those hurdles as to the exact timing. But for now we’re confident we will have it closed by the time we get to January 1st which is why we included in the outlook.
Simon Flannery:
On the guidance any concerns around some of the California obviously you just beat the infrastructure – is that any hindrance here or do you think you can still work with what the current status there?
Jay Brown:
We will be able to work with the current status there, so it doesn’t give us any concerns about our ability to deliver on the timelines that we provided.
Simon Flannery:
Great, thank you.
Operator:
Our next question is from Matthew Niknam from Deutsche Bank.
Matthew Niknam:
Hi guys, thank you for taking the questions. Just two if I could, one of the competitive front around small cells, I know in the past you talked about pretty strong win rates, just curious whether you have seen any change in terms of competitive dynamics there. And then secondly, more broadly I guess around fiber, if you could maybe shed some more light particularly around how those segments and some of the various recent acquisitions are operating on just sort of a new structure within Crown Castle. And wondering maybe if you can give us a little more color on the real step up you expect in fiber from 25 million to 45 million within your guidance? Thanks.
Jay Brown:
Sure. On the win rates for small cells they continue to about what we believe is about half of the total activities that’s going in the market which is consistent to the last few quarters at least maybe the last year or so. And we continue to see some more market dynamics in terms of the carrier self performing some portion of that building around fiber and prices. And then us winning about half of those opportunities, we continue to believe based on the market dynamics that the prices where the infrastructure can be shared that’s the most cost effective model and that continues to be playing out in our win rate. On the fiber segment I would describe that as, our base to fiber has gotten larger and so our growth in revenue has continued to increase product mix again as I mentioned in my comments still focused on large enterprises, educational facilities, healthcare providers where we’re doing multi-location and a high capacity of bandwidth that’s required. As we’ve increased the asset base and grown the number of miles of fiber that we have we’re increasing the revenue associated.
Daniel Schlanger:
And generally this is performing very much in-line with what we expected when we did the acquisitions. So this is – the outlook that we provided for 2018 is much to what we would have expected at this point.
Matthew Niknam:
Got it, thank you.
Operator:
We will take our next question from Jonathan Atkin from RBC Capital Markets.
Jonathan Atkin:
Thanks. So Jay you spent a lot of time talking about 5G and a number of the used cases and bandwidth required and so forth and I wonder perhaps does it make sense to talk a little bit about [Paper IO] in that context and kind of your thoughts around that investment and activity? Thank you.
Jay Brown:
Paper IO is a company that provides many datacenters at the edge of the network which is an important component of – in a 5G of reducing the latency, we made a relatively small investment last year in paper that as in early stage of deployment. We’ve used them in a number of trials that we’ve done with more hard traditional customers as well as other customers that we believe will likely be meaningful customers to us overtime. I would describe that as an opportunity that we think will leverage our real estate assets over a long period of time, the tower sites that we have today, we believe will likely be hubs environment in a sea ran environment and those tower, our towers will become increasingly important as the market develops towards sea ran in a 5G environment. So it's more of a trial small investment that gives us an opportunity to get some insight into the way people are thinking about the importance of moving computing power to the very edge of the network.
Jonathan Atkin:
So how soon do you think it might be, is it quarter, years or just no comment at this point in terms of when you might start to utilize your will assets and monetize them in that type of manner?
Jay Brown:
I would describe it in the broad broadest sense, our aim over time is to gain as much revenue and cash flow off of the assets that we own and as I described in my comments we believe towers are important to that, small cells are important to that and fiber is the connective tissue that connects both towers and small cells and we are looking at every opportunity we can to drive revenue growth and cash flow growth across those assets. Some of the things that we look are near term that we are comfortable underwriting investments based on. As I mentioned in my comments we underwrote all of the investments that we made based on 4G applications and what we currently see consumers using today but we also have a view that there's more than just current applications to come. I would describe mobile edge computing as one of the areas that we believe has the potential to provide upsides to our revenue cash flow growth as well as returns and extends the runway of growth from the infrastructure over a long period of time. So it's just one of many opportunities that are – that is directly tied as I mentioned in my comments to the deployment of 5G. So if not near-term it's not going to show up in the 18 and likely probably not 19 results. It's a longer dated activity that we are keeping our eye on and positioning ourselves to benefit from.
Jonathan Atkin:
And on small cell is there any way you kind of ballpark these increments?
Jay Brown:
Jon, you are breaking up for your question. Can you ask it again?
Daniel Schlanger:
Hi Gina, let's move onto the next question and then we can put John back in the queue.
Operator:
Okay. Our next question is from Amir Rozwadowski from Barclays.
Amir Rozwadowski:
Thanks very much and good morning folks. Two questions if I may, if we think about the sort of the site listing activity of a macro side I mean it seems like you're continually see healthy activity levels you have obviously mentioned that FirstNet is not included in your outlook. Can you talk to us about what type of initiatives you're seeing from the operators at the moment that's giving you sort of that improved activity levels at this point. I know you can't talk about carrier specific initiatives but just holistically is this a reaction to some of the unlimited data plan that we seen in the marketplace. Any color on that would be helpful?
Jay Brown:
We are seeing each of the carriers work on increasing both the capacity of the network and speed of the networks so we are seeing combination of new co-locations where they are densifying the network through self splitting as well as going back on sites that are already on and amending their existing installations to provide additional spectrum band in some cases or additional capacity in the network. So it's similar to what we seen in the past just frankly more of it.
Amir Rozwadowski:
That's very helpful and then if we can shift gears over to the fiber and small cell side clearly you guys have bolstered your fiber footprint and that's driving additional growth initiatives going forward. How do we think about sort of your current fiber footprint, I mean if we think Jay about sort of how you are thinking about the longer-term evolution owning this sort of connectivity tissue, there does seem to be other areas where you could potentially bolster the footprint in order to position the company for that longer-term densification initiatives? Are there thought process about other inorganic activities building additional fiber? How should we think about sort of those initiatives going forward?
Jay Brown:
Couple of things I would say about that Amir. First of all the pipeline that we have in the notes to be constructed in some cases we are building additional fiber. The vast majority of that fiber build as I mentioned in my earlier comments about 70% of the total notes relate to places where we are building additional fiber. That additional fiber build is primarily in those top 25 markets in the U.S. so we are getting a more dense portfolio of assets in the top 25 markets primarily from what we are constructing in terms of fiber. On the inorganic side Lightower is obviously a very sizable transaction and it's going to take us some time to digest that and integrate it into the portfolio so you should look for us to do anything of scale in the near term as we focus on integrating that asset and beginning to expand the returns on the assets as we articulated when we did it. We certainly believe there are significant revenue synergies across both sets of assets both the fiber that we bring to the transaction that has not been utilized to its fullest opportunity for fiber solutions as well as the fiber that they bring to the two companies where they've not been utilized to the fullest extent from the small cell side. So we see revenue synergies there and we are going to be focused on gaining those revenue synergies because we think it's the best way to drive the returns on the assets over a long period of time. So over time we may turn our eyes back towards looking at opportunities to acquire assets. Those will need to go through the same filter that we put Lightower and FiberNet and will call other transactions through but we got a believe that over the long term it has the ability to increase and grow our dividend and be additive to our growth rate and that the assets have the opportunity to add significant small cells on them in order to drive those returns.
Amir Rozwadowski:
Thanks very much for the incremental color.
Operator:
And we will take the next question from Philip Cusick from JP Morgan.
Unidentified Analyst:
Hi this is Richard for Phil. Just wanted to get more color on the piecing of the revenue for each of the segments for the growth in towers, small cells and fire solutions should be steady through the year or is it more backend loaded and they might differ by category?
Jay Brown:
Richard they are similar to pass the business is backend loaded if you go through the course of these any year. So roughly probably about 55% 60% of the growth would be in the second half of the year and about 40% to 45% would be in the first half of the year. Obviously the results as they play out you bet only speaking to the small incremental change so if you think about – if you did it in totality the year is pretty evenly loaded but if you're just looking at the incremental growth you would see someone in the neighborhood of about 55% to 60% of the incremental growth in the back half of the year.
Daniel Schlanger:
And that's already baked into how we provided the outlook. So we think that we are on EBITDA and AFFO and takes that to the next.
Unidentified Analyst:
And then on the churn side it looks like the non-acquired node churns are going to be higher this year that just of getting back to a normal level of activity now that the acquired node churn is gone or is there something else going on there?
Jay Brown:
I think the churn is flat basically on a nominal basis which on a bigger base of business is actually lower year-over-year. So we are seeing that the churn profile is what we would expect it to be on towers and small cells for the non-consolidation portion of our churn.
Unidentified Analyst:
Got it and then final question that escalated the dollar numbers pretty much the same year-over-year but masterpieces is bigger is that because the asset base of some of the acquisitions don't have escalators and or is there something else going on there that the escalator is actually coming down for other parts of the business.
Jay Brown:
No the escalator is not coming down. It's going consistently what has been historically. There is a portion of it where we had a holistic MLA roll off in 16 that had a lot over effect that so it continued in the 17 and therefore did come down a little bit in the 18 but that was already understood I think by everybody in part of what is the normal escalator is now what we think going forward but you're right there is some portion of it were we are bringing in businesses that don't typically have escalators on the fiber solutions which as we add that revenue and pull down at our percentage basis but we are seeing very similar trends in pricing and the escalator in the core business and then towers and small cell side.
Unidentified Analyst:
Great, thank you.
Operator:
And we will take our next question from Nick Del Deo of MoffettNathanson.
Nick Del Deo:
Hey thanks for taking my questions. First can you quantify your expectations for changes in the amortization prepaid rents in 18 versus 17 and how much can that contributes to your 2018 recent forecast by segment?
Jay Brown:
The prepaid rent is going to be in the neighborhood of growth the same way it was from 16 to 17, so it's consistent and so we think the trends that we laid out in terms of the new leasing activities across towers and small cell and fiber are very representative of what is whether you include or I exclude the prepaid rent the way we think about it thought that it's all cash. It just depends on when we get that cash. And so we are making investments over the long-term that are generating good cash on cash return which is the way we think about business. So we think that those the numbers that I talked about earlier in terms of new leasing activity or what we think are the new leasing growth in the business.
Daniel Schlanger:
And as the reason is not stepping up because the small cell installs are kind of backend loaded or only start when the side is tuned on the air.
Jay Brown:
What you said is turn but I would say that reason is not increasing. I think that overall the business it is increasing just not anything that would change the trajectory or the growth that we talked about.
Nick Del Deo:
Maybe one more if I can, if I remember correctly, in your Q1 call you said it was your expectation that most of your small cell backlog would get turned up in the second half of 18 with some fall in the 2019, does that remain the case or has it been pushed back some? I might be reading too much into it but in some of your earlier comment you seem to have suggested your small cell growth in 2018 is more functional of the words than you got in 2016 not necessarily 2017?
Jay Brown:
Yes Nick, I think when we talked about the big step up earlier this year, we said it was 2019 not 2018. We thought it as being as being a 2019 event. So our view on timing of when we will turn these nodes on has not changed from we thought about previously, we are seeing obviously an increase in small cell revenue growth that's the function of what we want in 2016 which was a step up from the activity that we saw in 2015.
Nick Del Deo:
Okay. Got it. Thanks for your color.
Operator:
And we will take our next question from Colby Synesael from Cowen and Company.
Colby Synesael:
Thank you. Two questions if I may, the first question I was hoping if you could provide some color on 2018 discretionary CapEx and if so you are able to break out what's coming from Lightower versus the standalone business? And then secondly you are spending $20 million to $40 million in 18 on integration. I was wondering give you a little bit of color on what's being done, have each of the – you have done a lot of fiber acquisition over the last year. Is your intention now to from the technical perspectives integrate those so for example combining billing systems, combining the OSS just talk about what's been done thus far and what the intention is 2018 would be helpful? Thank you.
Jay Brown:
Sure Colby. Discretionary CapEx we anticipate that the discretionary CapEx in Lightower is around what has historically been $300 million range. The business will be a step up from 17 because of the big growth in the small cells that we are putting on air. So we anticipate overall discretionary CapEx to be up $200 million to $300 million I would say, 18 over 17.
Colby Synesael:
I am sorry. So that sounds $300 million for Lightower in that –
Jay Brown:
And then on a base business another 200 or 300 because of the small cell that we are putting on air. On the integration what we are planning on doing is integrating all of the fiber solutions companies we have bought recently into the new operating structure that we announced not too long ago with Jim Young and we would anticipate trying to put it all on a platform and same operating platform and management style and the timing of that happening is still unclear because we haven't got into we haven't closed on Lightower to have enough of those conversations but the overall goal is to run that as one business that we can get the most out of the expertise that we got with the Lightower team along with the expertise we already have in place and then providing asset base across the US as oppose to pockets but we think there will be a lot of revenue synergy that we can get from putting all those things together which is Jay was talking about earlier was really the driver behind Lightower transaction, get access to the fiber and then drive additional revenue across that fiber.
Colby Synesael:
So the $20 million to $40 million will go towards that in 2018 but in terms of when that project actually gets completed and we start to see the synergies whether it's revenue or OpEx that's still PBD?
Jay Brown:
Well, to be clear we have not announced any synergies on the OpEx side, but the revenue synergies will be to be determined. They are not baked into our outlook so we didn't put these small cell on Lightowers fiber but we put any revenues synergies on the fiber outside of light tower footprint.
Colby Synesael:
Thank you.
Operator:
We will take our next question from Tim Horan from Oppenheimer.
Timothy Horan:
Thanks guys. On the pricing on small cell and fiber is that a change or is that been fairly consistent over the last couple years are you seeing any improvements there?
Jay Brown:
Tim the pricing on both small cell and fiber tuition is consistent with what we've seen in past years.
Timothy Horan:
Great and how about for carrier demand? I think it has been a little bit concentrated in the past in terms of the carriers over the point of small cells. Is that pretty broad's spread out at this point?
Jay Brown:
We have seen the demand across all of the carriers and what I would describe as maybe a change from the past has been the market they have focused on prior to the conversation that we started having at the beginning of this year where we saw significant increase in the number of nodes that we were getting from carriers I would have described the vast majority of our activity coming close to probably 90% of the activity occurring in the top 10 markets in the U.S. and really focus on the top five market specifically. And what we've seen over the last 12 months is that has moved outside of the top 5 - 10 markets to the top 25 market. So the increase in volume has followed with multiple carriers, but really function of the number of markets that are being focused on and the overall quantum of nodes being deployed.
Timothy Horan:
Great and then lastly it looks like soft bank is looking to partner into the U.S. market wireless infrastructure market. Do you think there is an opportunity for you guys to partner with them? Do you see them as kind of being more competitive going forward?
Jay Brown:
I think there is, we are always open to having partnership conversation with folks and I saw their announcement earlier this week and I think it affirms the great returns that are in our business so I am not surprised that a firm like Linley would desire to come into the U.S. market given the returns that we've been able to demonstrate over a long period of time and further and so I think they find the returns and opportunities per capital to work is attractive and that's why they are willing to put funds into it. So not surprising and would be open to have a partnership conversation if they wanted to.
Timothy Horan:
Thank you.
Operator:
And our next question comes from Mike Rollins from Citi.
Michael Rollins:
Hi thanks for taking the questions. First if you get us help level set so if you take the midpoint of your organic growth guidance for 2018 can you split that percentage growth rate and help us with what the comparable tower number would be versus the small cell fiber growth rate and then I will follow-up with the second question if I could.
Daniel Schlanger:
So Mike I think what we try to do given the new leasing activity we will split it up. So $205 million new leasing activity and we said we are going to it's about $110 million from towers, about $55 million from small cells and about $45 million from fiber and that should give you a pretty good sense of where we are overall and those – like Jay was mentioning earlier those have each increased over 2017 so we see increasing growth across each of our businesses.
Michael Rollins:
Right so what would be –
Jay Brown:
I think we would say Mike maybe one of the way to think about it is we've increased the organic leasing activity on a consolidated basis that's up several – that's up about 40 basis points about 1% over 2017 activity that we saw is organic leasing going to 6% in 2018. It was unchanged in 2017.
Michael Rollins:
Right. So we and if you take that – is that six the total business so if you wanted to look at towers as a growth rate and small cells as a growth rate what would comparative be for those two pieces?
Daniel Schlanger:
Yes so small cells is growing as we talked about in the high teens percentages year-over-year and towers is still in the 5% to 6% range as it has been growing a little bit but like Jay was mentioning a lot of that because the base of the business and towers is so much of the base that in order for the whole thing to growth hat much towers has to be accelerating on top.
Michael Rollins:
Okay. So five to six is the range for towers to think about for 2018?
Daniel Schlanger:
Sure.
Michael Rollins:
And just a follow-up when we look at the revenue bridge that you provide there's a difference in the way that you look at new leasing for towers versus new leasing for small cells in that towers my understanding is you don't include the builder suits, but in fiber you are including the builder suits what would the growth rate in fiber look like if you didn't include the builder suits?
Daniel Schlanger:
As going back to what Jay was talking about earlier, about 70% of what we are building in small cells and fiber is anchor builds and we anticipate those are for both current growth and in future growth to come but as we put on more and more of these nodes and get more and more co-locations a lot of it will come through that 30% of co-location. It's just the bigger numbers are also including the bigger anchor built. So the number would be lower if we didn't include the 70%. We just look at it as this is part of our business going forward. This is part of what we are doing and it's really not part of the business of the towers to build the suit at this point. So it's just a difference in how we think about the business. There are small cell businesses in the investment and growth phase and we are including both the capital in the revenues associated with that.
Michael Rollins:
Well, last question when you are selling co-location whether it's in tower or small cells what percentage of the deals are bundling the two services together versus kind of like ala carte search rings. Is there a measure we should be tracking on that basis?
Daniel Schlanger:
Mike the folks at the carriers are looking at the use of both macro side and small cell. So it's the same group inside of the carrier. So when we are having conversations with them there is a conversation about both. When you get down to when things actually get signed and done, the nature of those two it's very different. So from a small cell standpoint, there is a significant amount of RF engineering and design that goes into how our carriers utilize those assets. There is far less of that on a traditional tower site where it's leasing at in essence of a spot on the map. So the conversations are happening with the same people at the carriers. I wouldn't describe it as a bundling because it's not a cookie-cutter solution on the small cell side. So we got to have a more robust conversation regarding small cell than we need to have on the tower side.
Michael Rollins:
Thanks very much.
Operator:
And we will take the next question from Walter Piecyk from BTIG.
Walter Piecyk:
Thanks. So I am just going to go back to couple of earlier answers, did you say when the deal closes there will be or won't be an incremental dividend increase?
Daniel Schlanger:
There will not be.
Walter Piecyk:
Got it. Thank you. And then on the prepaid rent as far as looking 2018 similar growth rates if you look at 2017 it looks like you are pacing at 18% growth so based on your prepaid grow 18% in 2018 that's in, I guess what you would consider reported organic growth so for excluding –
Daniel Schlanger:
So the prepaid rent is running by similar dollar amount from 17 to 18 than it did from 16 to 17.
Walter Piecyk:
Similar dollar amount, 240 right that’s fine but -- so if you are aiming up at 240 for prepaid for the year then you are looking like 280 for 2018.
Daniel Schlanger:
We take this conversation offline and have it where we can talk about numbers more specifically as to we can make sure that the question you are asking is being answered appropriately. It's hard to follow all the numbers you are trying to get to in this type of form. Can we just talk about it after the call?
Walter Piecyk:
It just relates to the growth rates you guys are talking about as far you’re going, but okay.
Daniel Schlanger:
I am not trying to -- question if you really wanted to be answered here it's just really hard to follow 240 I don't know what you are talking about so if you like we can go –
Walter Piecyk:
These are numbers you report whatever I can go with it offline and it's in your press release but whatever. I guess just give us an update on any of the trial that you have talked in the past from nontraditional wireless providers? How is it going how they proceed, how they ended and if you think that they can contribute anything to revenue in 2018?
Daniel Schlanger:
Yes we will talk on the trials we have done. I would describe this is more – they are opportunities for us to learn and understand how the networks are being deployed, I made the comments earlier about edge computing and some of things that we have done with Safer and other components of the real estate we have done some of those with fiber. As we have done those they are designed more to learn. They are generally relatively small in terms of dollar amount so they are not going to affect our 2018 results. They're much more of learning opportunities for us to understand how the market is developing and what's going to be necessary in C ran 5G and as we get into things like Internet of Things and all the connected devices.
Walter Piecyk:
Got it, thank you.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Batya Levi from UBS.
Batya Levi:
Thank you. One question on the pipeline for the small cell node build, do you had mentioned that you had about 25,000 in the beginning of the year for the next 18 to 24 months. How does that figure look right now and if we get the federal regulatory for month attachment do you think that you can beat the delivery of the pipeline?
Jay Brown:
Yes, the pipeline is up and we continue to win new nodes. It's not a meaningful step so as we think about the G&A as Dan mentioned in his comments around the cost structure we think we sized the cost structure to be able to handle the level of activity to the extent that we see a step up meaningfully from where we are currently. We will come back and give you an update on that. Second question was around the federal legislation speeding up of time. With the federal legislation and frankly even the state legislation is helpful is it gives clarity of the outcome. Small cell towers are forever going to have the necessity of us working closely with the local municipality to work through planning and zoning and requirements. So we don't anticipate over the long period of time that the legislative experts are going to meaningfully speed up the activity but they will give greater clarity to both the municipality to the carriers then to ourselves as an infrastructure provider of the path of deploying that infrastructure. So to the extent we see federal legislation and we are working towards that or state legislation I think it gives greater clarity but I wouldn't necessarily guide you to assume that our timeline where we talked about two years to get nodes on air that gets shorten meaningfully. If after the facts that it does we will come back and update you on that but our working assumption is that the two-year time frame is likely to be about what it's going to be even if we do get new legislation.
Batya Levi:
Got it and one follow-up on the new leasing activity. 190 to 200 million that you laid out that 220 laid out that also organic based. Correct but it doesn't include new growth coming from Lightower. Okay.
Daniel Schlanger:
That's true. All the Lightower are held on to the right in the acquisition chart.
Batya Levi:
And in terms of your expectations for Lightower next year can you give us a sense of in terms of the mainly the activity growth versus churn how you expect the transition to show up next year?
Daniel Schlanger:
Yes so what we talked about when we talked about the transaction to begin with is light tower has grown the revenue in the high single digits per year and since we anticipate that to continue and if the churn rates will be included in that and those have also been in the high single digits on a percentage basis so those remain in line with what we continue to believe.
Batya Levi:
Okay. Thank you.
Operator:
And the next question comes from Spencer Kurn from New Street Research.
Spencer Kurn:
Hey guys thanks. I wanted to talk about your small cell backlogs. So you have been aggressively rolling out fiber, but it seems like two of your main customers have also been making more meaningful push throughout their own fiber this year. Have the dynamic shifted, have we typed any shift in dynamics of your sort of pipeline in the future or how do you sort of see both of these dynamics playing out over the next several years?
Daniel Schlanger:
Spencer we haven't seen any change in the dynamic. What we have seen is the change in the quantum of activity which is up meaningfully in 2017 from what we have seen in past years. Our win rate has remained about the same winning about half of the activity in the market. I continue to believe that you're going to see the carriers self perform some portion of the deployment of small cells and fiber and the network. I think we will see other providers of shared infrastructure model in the market that will provide some portion of that activity and then we certainly expect to continue to provide a meaningful portion of it. Similar to what we seen on towers where there is tower builds or small cells I think in the places where the shared infrastructure model is available and makes sense from a return standpoint you'll see provider such as ourselves going to put capital in because of the economics and the returns of it being shared. There are going to be other places though where there may not be a shared model. We may not have an interest in participating in it and in those places I think you're likely to see some other unlikely self performed by the carriers where fiber is going to be needed and we just we can't justify the economics and the likely returns there and so we don't participate.
Spencer Kurn:
Got it.
Jay Brown:
Go ahead Spence.
Daniel Schlanger:
Wrap it up. You can wrap it up sir.
Jay Brown:
We have time for one more question.
Jay Brown:
Spencer you have one more we will take – if you had a follow-up go ahead.
Spencer Kurn:
I just wanted to – sorry I just clarify the so the message is either your carrier customers I guess aren't where you're there, doesn’t sound like they are deploying fiber in similar markets and then also even though you are capturing 50% of win rate today, that might go down but the overall magnitude of volume is so great that even if you're losing share modestly your backlog should still continue to ramp for next couple of years.
Daniel Schlanger:
Yes, I think with regards to the market themselves some of the markets are the same. They just may not be in the same areas of those markets. So we could be in same markets, it's not in the same area inside of the market and longer term based on where we believe the world is going I think that total number of small cells to be deployed and therefore the fiber to be required very well could result in our win rate coming down over time but the actual amount of activity that we have in front of us in the revenue growth is associated with that could continue to increase even though our win rate is coming down. So I believe the number of small cells that are going to be needed in the market as we move towards the 5G environment are significant enough that they are going to need to be multiple different providers in the market in order to provide the kind of capital required to do that.
Spencer Kurn:
Got it thanks again.
Operator:
And we will take our last question from Brandon Nispel from Keybanc Capital Markets.
Brandon Nispel:
Hey thanks for squeezing me in. I guess in the market where you have the small cell systems in place what's the ratio that you are seeing in terms of number of small cells to macro towers today and where do you think that could go in one to two year period. And then on the CapEx that you guys called out in the first quarter I think it was $1.2 billion, can you remind us where you are in that build process and how many route miles of fiber you're planning on building? Thanks.
Daniel Schlanger:
On the first question it would be very, very small the ratio of small cells to tower. What we typically see and so it's not something that that we would look at Brandon may be a better way to think about it is if we think about building about a mile of fiber we will see roughly 2 small cell, 2 to 2.5 small cell per mile of fiber. It's about the density of small cells that they are deploying across the market is a pretty good guess of that but if you would take the quantum of towers in marketing and compare that to the small cells it would be highly weighted towards towers.
Daniel Schlanger:
On the 1.2 billion what we're talking about on that is we – so now we had an addition of about 25,000 nodes to our pipeline. It was going to take about $1.2 billion to get those on air like Jay said, I was going to 2019 that is part of the increase in capital that we are discussing earlier from 2017 to 18. We believe we will still have some of that to spend in 2019 but we are in the midst of spending that money currently.
Jay Brown:
I would like to thank everyday for joining the call this morning. Obviously we are excited about how the business is performing and certainly optimistic as we go into 2018 based on things increased revenue activity across all of our businesses and then lastly I just like to echo something that Dan mentioned earlier in the call I would really like to express my appreciation to our employees who have worked incredibly hard over the last, through the last couple of months dealing with some really significant hurricanes. They have done a terrific job delivering for customers and we certainly appreciate how hard they have worked hard to get networks back on air and to maintain the assets. So, thanks to all our folks, thanks everybody for joining this morning.
Operator:
This concludes today's call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.
Executives:
Son Nguyen - Vice President of Corporate Finance Jay Brown - President and Chief Executive Officer Daniel Schlanger - Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Analysts:
David Barden - Bank of AMerica Merrill Lynch Matthew Niknam - Deutsche Bank AG Simon Flannery - Morgan Stanley Amir Rozwadowski - Barclays PLC Philip Cusick - JP Morgan Chase & Co. Colby Synesael - Cowen and Company, LLC Brett Feldman - Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Matthew Heinz - Stifel, Nicolaus & Company, Inc., Jonathan Atkin - RBC Capital Markets, LLC
Operator:
Good day, and welcome to the Crown Castle International Second Quarter 2017 Earnings Call. Today's conference is being recorded. At this time, I'd like to turn the conference over to Mr. Son Nguyen. Please go ahead.
Son Nguyen:
Thank you, Mia, and good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us today as we discuss our second quarter 2017 results and our announced acquisition of Lightower. With me on the call this morning are Jay Brown, Crown Castle's Chief Executive Officer; and Dan Schlanger, Crown Castle's Chief Financial Officer. Jay is going to begin with a discussion of the Lightower acquisition, and Dan will follow with a review of our second quarter 2017 results. To aid the discussion, we have posted supplemental materials in the Investor section of our website at crowncastle.com, which we will refer to throughout the call this morning. This conference call will contain forward-looking statements, which are subject to certain risks, uncertainties and assumptions, and actual results may vary materially from those expected. Information about potential factors which could affect our results is available in the press release and the Risk Factors section of the Company's SEC filings. Our statements are made as of today, July 19, 2017, and we assume no obligations to update any forward-looking statements. In addition, today's call includes discussion of certain non-GAAP financial measures. Tables reconciling these non-GAAP financial measures are available in the supplemental information package in the Investor section of the Company's website at crowncastle.com. With that, I'll turn the call over to Jay.
Jay Brown:
Thanks, Son, and thank you, everyone, for accommodating our change in schedule and joining us on the call early this morning as we discuss the Lightower acquisition and our second quarter results. As you saw from our press release yesterday afternoon, we have reached an agreement to acquire Lightower, which owns or has rights to approximately 32,000 miles of fiber in top metro markets in the Northeast, including Boston, New York and Philadelphia. Through a series of transactions in recent years and organic investments along the way, we have strategically positioned Crown Castle as the leading shared wireless infrastructure provider in the U.S. across towers, small cells and fiber. Turning to Slide 4. We believe this portfolio of mission-critical infrastructure will play an important role in helping our customers capitalize on the exponential growth in demand for data and connectivity. As has been our view over the past several years, we see the ownership of deep, dense fiber in top metro markets as a competitive advantage in facilitating small cell deployments in a cost-effective and timely manner. With the addition of Lightower's premier metro fiber footprint located in several of the most densely populated markets, we are significantly extending our reach by adding a highly complementary footprint that doubles the miles we will have available for small cell deployment. Further, the acquisition of Lightower aligns with our longstanding focus on allocating capital to increase shareholder value through growing the dividend. Towards this end, we expect the acquisition to be immediately accretive to our AFFO per share, and as a result, we expect to increase our annual dividend rate by approximately $0.15 to $0.20 per share after closing, subject to our Board's approval. Additionally, we expect that the Lightower acquisition will enhance our long-term growth rate, allowing us to increase our annual dividend growth target by 100 basis points to 7% to 8%. The expected near and long-term accretion is a reflection of the small cell opportunities we see in front of us as well as the high-quality business and assets we are acquiring in Lightower. Turning to Slide 5. We have assembled an unparalleled portfolio of shared wireless infrastructure assets that we believe are well positioned to help our customers meet the growing demand for data. Additionally, we have developed industry-leading capabilities to meet the growing small cell demand. Drawing on our experience with towers we are capitalizing on our first mover advantage to assemble a portfolio where we believe there will be long-term franchise value that will drive significant returns over time through future leasing. We believe the combination of our assets with those of Lightower will represent one of the most extensive and unique footprints of deep dense metro fiber assets assembled today, and this is one of the key drivers of our acquisition. Pro forma for the Lightower acquisition, we will own or have rights to approximately 60,000 route miles of fiber, making us one of the largest owners of metro fiber in the U.S. Further, with our combined footprint, we will own or have rights to fiber in all of the top 10 and 23 of the top 25 metro markets. By creating scale in these top markets, we are positioning Crown Castle to meet the needs of our customers looking to us as an infrastructure provider of choice as consumers and businesses in every industry evolve and adapt to a world where mobile is the platform of choice. This ongoing transition to mobile is evident everywhere. Importantly, Crown Castle is positioned to benefit from this long-term trend as our leading portfolio of towers, small cells and fiber will provide the critical infrastructure needed to enable this shift. As you can see on the maps on Slide 6 and 7, the addition of Lightower will expand our fiber presence with complementary dense metro fiber assets throughout the Northeast. The limited overlap between Lightower's fiber footprint and our existing footprint will give us a large incremental opportunity to deploy small cells in these important markets. As I mentioned earlier, on Slide 8, is the trend in mobile data demand, which is expected to quadruple by 2021. We expect our portfolio of towers, small cells and fiber to play an essential role in supporting the network densification that will be needed to meet this demand. As you can see on the slide, our wireless customers are increasingly turning to small cells to augment and further densify their macro network and deploy spectrum closer to their customers to enhance and improve their network quality and capacity. Consistent with what our customers are saying, we are seeing small cell demand accelerate as evidenced by our first quarter announcement of our record 25,000 contracted small cell node pipeline, and we believe the long-term opportunity could match towers in size and return. Our conviction around the size and attractiveness of the small cell opportunity has grown over time based on the trajectory of activity from our wireless carriers and the returns we have generated to-date. To help give you some additional perspective on why we are so enthusiastic about the opportunity, I wanted to take just a minute and walk you through the returns we have generated to-date across our top three small cell markets
Daniel Schlanger:
Thanks, Jay, and good morning, everyone. Thanks again for accommodating our schedule change and joining us on the call early in the morning. I can imagine everyone is focused on our acquisition announcement. We also announced earnings this morning, and our results were very good. We delivered another quarter of positive financial results as our fundamentals for our business remain strong and our team continues to execute at a high level for our customers. Results for the quarter met or exceeded the midpoint of our prior guidance for site rental revenues, adjusted EBITDA and AFFO. We are pleased with our strong operating results during the first half of the year and the continued healthy leasing activity we are seeing across our infrastructure assets, which we expect to continue through the second half of the year. As a result, we are increasing our full year 2017 outlook at the midpoint for site rental revenues, adjusted EBITDA and AFFO to reflect that backdrop and incorporate the contribution from the Wilcon acquisition that closed in late June. Turning to second quarter 2017 results. As shown on Slide 12, site rental revenues grew approximately 8% or [$66 million] as compared to the same period in 2016, inclusive of approximately 5% growth derived from organic contribution to site rental revenues. The 5% or $42 million of growth from organic contribution of site rental revenues consists of approximately 8% growth from new leasing activity and contracted tenant escalations, net of approximately 3% from tenant non-renewals. Moving on to investment activities for the quarter. We closed on our $600 million acquisition of Wilcon and invested an additional $301 million in capital expenditures, including $261 million of revenue-generating capital expenditures across towers and small cells that we believe will generate compelling returns and deliver long-term growth in dividends per share. Consistent with our focus on maintaining an investment-grade balance sheet, we financed the Wilcon acquisition with $442 million in net proceeds from equity issued during the quarter, and the balance was funded with a portion of the proceeds from our inaugural 30-year unsecured bond offering in May. We believe the attractive pricing on this long-term capital of 4.75% reflects the market's recognition of our high-quality cash flows, the long-term nature of our assets and the attractive prospects for our business. Our focus on maintaining a strong balance sheet has positioned us well to invest in our business while providing the flexibility to pursue attractive acquisitions like Lightower. Turning to other financing activities. We once again returned significant capital to our shareholders during the second quarter with our quarterly common stock dividend totaling $348 million or $0.95 per share, representing growth of 7% on a per-share basis as compared to the same period a year ago. We continue to believe that providing a portion of shareholder returns in the form of a growing dividend stream aligns well with our business, which is characterized by high-quality, long-term recurring cash flows. Turning now to Slide 13. We are increasing our full-year 2017 outlook at the midpoint for site rental revenues, adjusted EBITDA and AFFO by $29 million, $15 million and $6 million, respectively. As you can see on Slide 14, we have increased our outlook primarily to reflect the contribution of the recently closed acquisition of Wilcon. Wilcon is expected to contribute approximately $26 million to site rental revenues, $7 million to site rental cost of operations and approximately $5 million to general and administrative expenses. This contribution is expected to be partially offset by higher financing costs associated with the pre-funding of Wilcon acquisition for two months and an increase of approximately $5 million in interest expense in the normal course of business driven by higher LIBOR rates. Overall, we are encouraged by the increased pace of leasing we are experiencing on our towers this year. Although given where we are in the year, we do not anticipate the increased activity will meaningfully impact our 2017 results. As we look out further, we remain optimistic about the long runway of growth that remains in front of us as our carrier customers continue to densify their macro networks and deploy additional spectrum, including FirstNet and other spectrum from recent auctions, in order to meet the demand for mobile data and connectivity. To wrap up, we look forward to building on the strong results through the first half of the year as Crown Castle remains well-positioned to capitalize on the long-term growth trends and data consumption with our leading portfolio of critical wireless infrastructure assets. With that, operator, I would like to open the call to questions.
Operator:
Thank you, sir. [Operator Instructions] And we'll go first to David Barden with Bank of America.
David Barden:
Hey, guys, thanks and congrats on the deal and the quarter. I guess a few questions, maybe focused on the Lightower deal. First, Jay, I think that there's a lot of questions about kind of – as you know the lingering questions about the differences between the small cell fiber business and some of the enterprise components that you're acquiring relative to the tower business. So on that, could you talk a little bit about Lightower's historical CapEx intensity, its churn in that business and some of the kind of the growth characteristics that they've been seeing? And related to the growth, could you talk a little bit about what kind of backlog they might have in terms of the small cell inventory or what kind of the conversations you had with carriers that give you the conviction that there's that incremental growth opportunity that'll inform the dividend outlook? And I guess my last question, if I could, was just on your conversation about the top three markets and the 11% return that you're getting there. Of that 11% return, what percentage of that return is related to the everprise side in the services business versus what is right now the real small cell part of the return that you're generating? Thanks so much.
Jay Brown:
Thanks for the question. So high level, let me start with this. As we look at the assets that Lightower ran, and this is really consistent with all of the acquisitions that you've seen us do so far, whether it's FiberNet or Wilcon or Sunesys, we have looked at very specific characteristics around those assets, on dense fiber, dark fiber in metro markets where we believe there's a lot of opportunities for small cells to be deployed across that fiber. And the key aspect of it, which is reflected in the comments that we're making around the vast majority of the revenues, qualify as good REIT income, and we believe somewhere in the neighborhood of 80% to 85% of the assets in the revenue are good REIT income. The assets are, in essence, passive for us. So we are purely an infrastructure provider providing a pipe and therefore, it's good real estate income. That passive nature as an infrastructure provider of – in essence, owning the tollway if you will, or the railroad for the deployment of wireless networks, these assets that we're acquiring in Lightower have those same characteristics, and it's why they're so attractive to us. We find that over time, as we've looked at assets, the revenues tend to be stickier. They tend to be longer dated. And they tend to be very attractive for the deployment of small cells. With regards to your question around CapEx intensity and churn, et cetera. On the CapEx intensity side, generally, the payback for the deployment of capital, once you start to develop a market, the payback is in the neighborhood of two to three years on the capital that's been deployed. Historically, the business has seen churn in the neighborhood of about 9%, and the payback on the capital obviously, drives the continued investment. So as you think about the impact of churn and the allocation of capital towards those two things, while we would certainly underwrite it and Lightower has done a good job over time of putting that into the model and thinking about the deployment of capital against the overall characteristics, the stickiness of it, and then the provision of future services using that same fiber. From a backlog standpoint of small cells, they had about 2,000 small cells in the pipeline. It has not been a core portion of their business, although they have provided small cells in the past. Most of the carrier revenues that I spoke to, a big portion of that would be related to fiber to the cell. As we've talked about the architecture of the networks, historically, we believe that fiber to the cell becomes very important as hub sites are developed and small cells are developed in conjunction with the existing macro network. So again, another good indication of what we think is going to be upside from small cells. And then lastly, your question around the three markets that I spoke to, which are the three largest markets that we've deployed small cells in thus far
David Barden:
Thanks Jay.
Jay Brown:
You bet.
Operator:
And we'll go next to Matthew Niknam with Deutsche Bank.
Matthew Niknam:
Hey guys. Thank you for taking the question. Again, congrats on the deal. Just two if I could. First, on the Lightower acquisition, just trying to figure out how the deal may or may not help you. As you had sort of laid out in the past, a 25,000 small cell build pipeline, expected capital outlay of about $1.2 billion in upcoming quarters. So trying to figure out how the deal may help you towards that goal. And then secondly, on the macro site business, just trying to figure out as we're now halfway through the year, what's been, I guess, better or maybe slower than expected in terms of carrier pacing of activity and just trying to figure out whether some of the better performance year-to-date in the services business maybe a precursor to maybe a little bit more of a lift in that business on the macro site side in 2018? Thanks.
Jay Brown:
Matt, on your first question, there will be some benefit from the acquisition that we did in terms of reducing the amount of capital that we would spend on the notes that we referenced last quarter that were the recently contracted notes during the first quarter of 2017. But I would encourage you more to think about this as increasing the size of the pie. As we look at the data and the systems that we have built, we have found the returns to be incredibly compelling. And as we think about the way for us to create shareholder value over time, there have been three tenets of our story that we have consistently come back to. One is to add additional revenue to the assets that we already own, two has been to lower our overall cost of capital and three has been to allocate capital to things that we think will grow our dividend over time. And as we have learned and studied and watched the investments that we have made, we have seen the investments we have made around fiber and small cells to deliver very compelling returns, and we're in the very early innings of carriers adopting and using small cells. So as we look for opportunities to continue to deploy capital around this, our intention is to grow the size of the pie because we find the returns to be so compelling. So while we will, I guess, at some level get the benefit of reducing the capital costs in these Northeast markets from the nodes that we already have, which would have – some portion of those would have been embedded in that $1.2 billion, the reality is we're talking about expanding the pie and looking to put more capital to work because the returns are so compelling. And over time, we believe that will provide additional value to the shareholders in the form of increasing our dividend and our dividend growth rate.
Daniel Schlanger:
Yes. And Matt, it's Dan. I'll take the second question. I wouldn't necessarily say that the outperformance in services would be that – what would show that the activity levels are growing, but I would agree and like we said before, the leasing activity in that could be we are seeing on our tower business is better in 2017 than it was in 2016. And what we think that will lead to is just given the timing of everything, it won't really impact 2017, as I said in my remarks, but I do think that the deployment of that spectrum that we see is the increased leasing activity now plus the deployment of other spectrum, including FirstNet that will come, should lead to increasing activity and increasing leasing revenues in 2018.
Matthew Niknam:
Thank you.
Operator:
And we'll go next to Simon Flannery with Morgan Stanley.
Simon Flannery:
Great. Thank you very much. I think in the past, when you talked about other small cell fiber acquisitions, you talked about not wanting to necessarily play big in the enterprise fiber side of things. Obviously, this deal is on a different scale. So you just talk about how you got comfortable with that? And perhaps just how organizational you're managing it? I think you did suggest that maybe some of the skills and the talent that you have at Lightower could help drive some enterprise business in some of your existing fiber assets. And then there's been a lot in the press around zoning and infrastructure and trying to really help other carriers and you deploy small cells more efficiently. So what's your latest thoughts on that regulatory landscape and how your success is naturally working through this backlog city by city? Thank you.
Jay Brown:
Sure. Thanks for the questions. On the enterprise business, as I spoke to, I think what we have seen in the other acquisitions that we've done is focus on using fiber as a – what we often like to refer to as a dumb pipe, where really all that is being provisioned is a pipe between two or multi-locations for customers. These are typically done for large enterprises, hospitals, financial institutions, some educational institutions. We find that business to be as passive as we are in the tower business. So sometimes, it's referred to as virtual dark fiber or dim-lit fiber. That in our view is not a service business. And obviously, as I spoke to earlier around what qualifies for good REIT income, it's really just the provision of a real estate to real estate asset. The smaller acquisitions that we've done over time in other parts of the country have gotten us comfortable with portions of that enterprise business. So as we underwrote the Lightower acquisition, we're obviously assuming that we're going to continue to be in that business, continue to operate the business and grow the business over time. We find there to be very attractive returns on invested capital and believe we can continue to grow the business. As we thought about the underwriting and whether or not it justified the investment that we're making, this really goes to the heart of the shared economic model. So we're buying the asset in the neighborhood of about a 6% to 7% return on invested capital and able to provision it to the wireless carriers for the deployment of small cells, and it's a means by which we can do the same thing that we've done for a very long period of time with towers, and that has provided the lowest-cost alternatives to the carriers as they deploy their wireless network. Our goal is to use our cost of capital and to invest the capital in a way that provisions these assets in a way that minimizes the overall cost as the carriers deploy their network. And I believe that's why we have been so successful in attracting small cells on the fiber that we already own because it is the lowest-cost alternative. If you go back and think about how the tower model has developed over time, in the early days of towers, we acquired towers in the top – as I spoke to around fiber, we acquired towers in the top 10, top 25 markets at an initial yield of about 3% back in 1999 and 2000 and over time have leased those assets up as densification has occurred in the wireless networks. In this case, there is an existing source of revenues and cash flow on this fiber that we believe will continue to be there over a long period of time. And on top of that, we believe we will add additional revenues from the wireless carriers to really maximize the ultimate return on the asset. So the way that we've thought about it and continue to approach it has been through our wireless view. And then as we've gotten smarter about what's the quality of the cash flows there, it's enabled us to be able to invest in assets like Lightower because of what we think it will ultimately mean from a return standpoint. On your second question around small cell regulatory efforts, we have a number of efforts going on at the federal, state and the local level. Like towers, I would tell you, it will forever be hard, we believe, to deploy small cells and fiber. And what we're trying to ensure is that it's a fair deployment and that both we and our carrier customers are treated equal to others who access the right of way. That regulation has been progressing well, and it's helped us in some markets. But as we look at it, we certainly don't expect that it's ever going to be easy. And I think the story that folks have read about in the press, in the municipalities and at the state level, there's going to continue to be challenges as we balance the desire of people and communities to limit the amount of infrastructure in their communities and the need for the carriers to deploy the infrastructure in order for us as consumers to achieve the kind of services that we really want to use. So it's a balancing act, and we're continuing to work hard at it. I will tell you, the benefit of scale is significant in this front. Historically, on the tower side, most of the conversations that happened as we would construct or build a tower add an additional tenant to a tower. That was largely a conversation that happened at a homeowners association in most cases. This is a conversation that happens at a citywide basis that reaches town councils and mayors' offices, et cetera. And so the amount of scale and effort we have to do in order to deploy small cells is a much more robust effort in order to do it. And I believe that scale is helpful to us as we approach and deliver for the carriers because the capabilities to do so are very different than what has historically happened in the tower side where one individual could basically go out and develop a tower in a good location. The regulations and the challenges of deploying small cells really speak to the value of being able to provide it in scale. I think that's reflected in our ability to attract the number of small cell orders that we have so far in calendar year 2017.
Simon Flannery:
Thanks Jay.
Operator:
And we'll go next to Amir Rozwadowski with Barclays.
Amir Rozwadowski:
Thanks very much. A couple of questions if I may. In thinking about the longer-term business mix, I think in the past, you had suggested that potentially we could get to a 50-50 split between the small cell business and the macro side. Is that sort of a target that you're gearing the business towards? And given that scope, I mean, what is the appetite for additional fiber deals?
Jay Brown:
Amir, I do believe that ultimately our small cell business could be as big as towers. That is driven primarily though by my view that the carriers are going to invest over a long period of time around their macro sites to densify their network. So I think we'll have two businesses growing, both the component of towers, which, as Dan spoke to, we've continued to see terrific demand for and increased demand in calendar year 2017 over what we saw in 2015 and 2016. So I think you'll see the carriers continue to invest in towers and then also make significant investments around small cells. Our appetite for additional investment in fiber, I think I'd say a couple of things on that front. One is, this is a large acquisition that's going to take us some time to digest. So we were out looking for the absolute best asset that we could. This does doubles our fiber footprint. It more than doubles the investment that we have placed to-date in fiber, and it's going to take us a little bit of time to digest the acquisition in terms of both integration and getting it up and running as we put small cells against it. So we may need a little bit of time as we digest. Broadly, though, the returns that we're seeing in this business, as I spoke to in one of my prior comments, is the investments that we're making today, we're making them not because we're trying to grow scale in the business, but because we think it provides value and return to our shareholders over time. And we believe our dividend five years, 10 years from now will be higher as a result of the acquisition that we're making today with Lightower than if we hadn't done it. And to the extent in the future we see opportunities that meet that test around the strategy that we've articulated, we'll absolutely be open to those. But they will come down to a test against whether or not we believe ultimately we'll be able to return that cash to shareholders at a higher rate than we otherwise would have.
Daniel Schlanger:
And Amir, I'll just jump in there. I think we've been consistent as we talk about the fiber asset acquisitions that we've done, that what we're looking for is, as Jay pointed out earlier, deep, dense metro fiber that has opportunities for lots of small cells. And Lightower fits that bill very well, but if you look at the things that, that leaves out, we're not really interested in long haul fiber. We're not interested in fiber that doesn't have a lot of capacity. We're not interested in fiber outside of metro markets because what we have is the idea that we want to deploy small cells. And Lightower came, like Jay had mentioned, with that opportunity. And we would stick to that even after this digestion period, so we may take a little while here, but I don't think we're going to depart from that desire going forward.
Amir Rozwadowski:
Thanks very much. And then just one follow-up if I may. There's been a lot of discussions about carriers' strategy in densifying their networks. If we think about this, clearly, you folks are seeing pretty healthy appetite in terms of overall demand and co-location activities. We're also hearing about SILEC carriers choosing to build their own activity level or their own [fiber] here. Could you quantify sort of how you see the opportunity set through those two types of strategies?
Jay Brown:
Sure. Amir, I think you're going to continue to see both. The carriers are going to self-perform some portion of their small cells. We believe we'll see other infrastructure providers outperform small cells for the carriers. We're certainly not underwriting this asset or any of the investments that we made, assuming that we're going to capture 100% of all future small cells that are deployed. So I think you'll see the carriers make comments around self-performing. I think those comments really are supportive of what is the opportunity around small cells and the necessity and essential nature of fiber to the deployment of wireless networks. But we also believe that the shared economic model is the lowest cost available to the wireless carriers. And we believe we have done – as well as we have done with small cells in the early innings of the deployment of small cells because it is the lowest cost provider. So the shared economic model in the same way that it's the lowest cost provisioning of infrastructure from a tower standpoint, we believe the same thing is true from fiber and small cell. So we believe that over time, we'll see a significant portion of the deployment of small cells on shared infrastructure in places where we think it will be shared and maybe other places where the carriers decide to self-perform because maybe there isn't a shared opportunity.
Amir Rozwadowski:
Thanks very much for taking up the call.
Operator:
We'll move next to Phil Cusick with JPMorgan.
Philip Cusick:
Hey guys, thanks. Can you first talk about what percent of those 25,000 contracted sites are in markets where Lightower helps you? So is this sort of a build versus buy decision on those markets?
Jay Brown:
Yes, so a couple things there. There is – in some of those notes that we had under contract, we will be helped to some degree. But as I mentioned earlier, this was about the pie just got a lot larger this morning. And so you probably won't be able to find the CapEx savings or a reduction in capital somewhere. It will help on some incremental basis, but really what's happening is we've availed ourselves of the opportunity of capturing even more small cells and the growth from revenue and cash flows associated with this fiber plan.
Daniel Schlanger:
And we are hearing from our carrier – just to jump in, Phil, sorry. We are hearing from the carrier customers that these markets are markets that are important for their small cell deployment. So it's not only what we already have in the pipeline. But as Jay said, how do we increase the size of the pie, and this really helps with that portion of it.
Philip Cusick:
Okay. And then second, can you talk about any sort of update on what you're hearing on FirstNet and the process there? Thanks.
Jay Brown:
You bet. So FirstNet, I believe at this point, five states have opted into FirstNet. FirstNet had a – has a requirement to submit a plan to each of the states by September 30 of this year. States then have the option to opt in or opt out by December 31 at the end of this year, calendar year 2017. And as I mentioned, I don't know if anybody announced this morning, we've been a little focused on our Lightower acquisition and earnings, but I believe that as of yesterday, there were five states that had opted in.
Philip Cusick:
Yes.
Jay Brown:
If states choose to opt out, they have about six months to decide what their plan would be. So that's the basic lay of the land. From a geographic coverage standpoint, they have 12 – FirstNet has 12 months to demonstrate 20% geographic coverage, then they have to be at about 60% by 24 months and 80% by 36 months out. And then by month 48, I think they have to cover nearly 100% of the geography. So the opportunity here from a tower standpoint, we think is really significant as we go into calendar year 2018 and beyond. And whether the states are opting in or opting out, we think there'll be a meaningful amount of deployment for first responders.
Philip Cusick:
I recognize you can't tell us anything about any MLA that might be coming, but can you tell us if AT&T didn't sign an MLA for those opt-in states and wanted to get moving now, is it fairly defined what the pricing would be for them to add a separate spectrum like FirstNet or is that a complicated discussion?
Jay Brown:
I don't want to get into any particular customer relationships or how we price. What I would tell you is if – whether a state was an opt-in or an opt-out state, those state – the deployment of that spectrum would require either an amendment or a new lease, depending on the nature of it on our sites. And we would expect in the first phase of the deployment of this, this will happen largely around macro sites. And depending on what ultimately the state decides to do, that could be a new lease on a site or an amendment to an existing site. But we do believe that in all cases, there will be additional revenue as a result of the deployment of the spectrum to provide the network for first responders.
Philip Cusick:
Understood, thanks Jay.
Jay Brown:
You bet.
Operator:
We'll go next to Colby Synesael with Cowen and Company.
Colby Synesael:
Hi, great. Thank you. Two questions if I may, first on Lightower. When we've seen other fiber like deals like this done, there's typically been a notable amount of cost synergies that have come out of these deals at least in our experience, somewhere in the neighborhood of 10% to 20% of the OpEx of the target company. And when I look at your disclosures, you guys haven't really talked about any cost synergies, and I'm wondering if there are any embedded in the 2018 EBITDA assumption and what that could potentially look like one or two years out from now meaning, could we see a notable step up in Lightower related EBITDA in 2019 as you kind of get through those? The second question is on the small cells. You've talked now for the last few months about this 25,000 node backlog, and it doesn't seem like there was any incremental signings at least notable or material amount of signings in the second quarter. I'm wondering if that's true. And if it is, do you think that we've signed some of the bigger deals that are out there and now we're going to go through some form of lull, maybe takes us through the rest of 2017 before we could potentially see another step up in meaningful signings and increase in that backlog? Thank you.
Jay Brown:
Yes, on the first question, we did not assume any cost synergies in the acquisition or in our underwrite model. We're not going to cut our way to growth. So our intention is to continue to grow the business and we're not assuming there aren't going to be any cost synergies there. We may around the edges, find some savings, but that was not how we underwrote the asset.
Colby Synesael:
Does that mean that you don't think that there's going to be any or you're just not assuming them in your own underwriting targets?
Jay Brown:
I think, Colby, as we thought about the asset again, we thought about the growth of the asset and the quality of the platform there and the folks who are running that asset. And so our intention is to continue to grow and expand the opportunity. We may find there are some back office synergies maybe around cost of licenses or other things, but that certainly was not the intention. And we'll be smart operators of the business over time. And I think you can look at our tower business and see a business in terms of the number of assets where it's a stable number of assets and we've been very disciplined around the cost structure there, so to the extent that there are opportunities. We'll avail ourselves of those as any good manager would. But it was not our intention nor in our underwrite model around cost synergies. So I wouldn't expect that we'll see steps from – as a result of reduction of cost. On your second question, the reference we're making for the 25,000 is a reference back to what we reconciled everybody through in great detail around our pipeline at the end of the first quarter. Our pipeline actually grew during the second quarter. Given the amount of content and discussions we're having this morning, we didn't go into great detail around the way the pipeline grew, what happened to it. But the number of sites that we turned operational against the number of bookings actually increased the size of that pipeline. So I wouldn't expect that you will see a lull in the new bookings and new contracted nodes as we put against – as we built to operate and put on air the nodes that we did. The one thing I would mention and I think we talked about this pretty extensively in the first quarter. It was not normal growth that we saw towards the end of 2016 and into the first quarter of 2017. We saw that as a big stair step in the level of activity. So it's continuing to grow, but I certainly wouldn't want to imply. We saw another stair step like what we saw in the first quarter, but it did grow relative to the number of nodes that we put on air.
Colby Synesael:
Do you plan on updating that 50,000 small cell node number that you provided in the press release last night on a quarterly basis? And if so, should we expect that number then to gradually move up in the back half of this year?
Jay Brown:
I think we'll talk directionally about what's in the process and where we think the growth rates are because it's related to where our revenue expectations are. But we like to spend our time talking about what the impact is ultimately to our dividend and what the impact is to the growth rate there. So we're more likely to probably transition that conversation back to our historical approach of talking about revenue growth translated to cash flow growth translated to dividend growth and have a more wholesome conversation where we're balanced around the cost of the capital that we put into these systems and the cash flow return against those and then what that implies for dividend growth. I would imagine directionally though, we'll continue to talk about activity levels as we have historically and what we're seeing both on the tower side and then also on the small cell side.
Colby Synesael:
Okay, thank you very much.
Jay Brown:
You bet.
Operator:
We'll move next to Brett Feldman with Goldman Sachs.
Brett Feldman:
Thanks. Just a couple of questions, in the past you've typically targeted about a 75% AFFO payout for setting your dividend. I'm curious whether you expect the board to maintain that policy going forward and in particular, whether that was the assumption that was standing behind your dividend accretion guidance you provided. And as an extension of that, I'm just curious whether there's any notable difference in the way you derive your AFFO forecasts for Lightower relative to your existing business, particularly around CapEx? And then just the last question, as you talk about maintaining investment grade profile as you finance the deal, are you still maintaining the same absolute targeted leverage that you've had in the past pro forma for the deal, which has typically been, I think between five and six turns? Thanks.
Jay Brown:
Sure. On the first question, yes, we have historically paid out about 75% of our AFFO in the form of a dividend, and that was our working assumption as we laid out this transaction and calculated the $0.15 to $0.20 of expected increase in the dividend related to Lightower. There are no notable differences in our calculation of AFFO or AFFO per share relative to the way we've handled it historically.
Brett Feldman:
And on leverage?
Daniel Schlanger:
The leverage point Brett, yes like we said in the press release, we want to maintain our investment grade credit metrics. That's what's driving our thought process around how we're going to finance this deal and we are committed to doing so.
Brett Feldman:
And you're comfortable that your historical targeted leverage is still something that would qualify as investment grade as the business mix changes?
Daniel Schlanger:
We're going to be working with the agencies, and we'll work through it. But we're committed to maintaining the investment grade credit ratings.
Brett Feldman:
Okay, thanks for taking the questions.
Operator:
We'll move next to Matthew Heinz with Stifel.
Matthew Heinz:
Thank you. Good morning. So just first question around the small cell backlog and once again trying to reconcile how we get to the 50,000 pro forma nodes, does that number include the entire 25,000 backlog that you laid out last quarter or is that inclusive of – I don't know on air?
Daniel Schlanger:
Yes, it includes both what is on air and that in full 25,000 node pipeline.
Matthew Heinz:
Okay. So about 5,000 incremental growth in the pipeline is how we should think about related number?
Daniel Schlanger:
Well, like Jay mentioned, there's a couple thousand from Lightower. And then there – it wasn't exactly 20,000 and 25,000, and so everything rounded together to approximately 50,000.
Matthew Heinz:
Okay. And so you kind of addressed the deal synergies with Colby's question, but I'm wondering if – to what degree does the Lightower guidance include any incremental lease-up on the assets or is that just an assumption around Lightower's sort of organic business?
Jay Brown:
When you look at their business, and we talk about small cells, as we've discussed, typically, there's about an 18-month to 24-month cycle from when we receive a small cell order to when we have it on air. So we're not assuming that we're bringing our small cell expertise to those assets in a way that would result in first year of ownership additional revenues from small cells. Obviously, we're going to continue to run that business, and they have a pipeline of revenues that we would continue to turn on air and get the cash flow benefit from. But the real revenue synergies, if you want to call it that and the upside from small cells and growth over time, that will be outside of the first year of ownership and really minimal impact in the first 12 months. So that's a longer-term benefit that we'll see and speaks to our comments around our expectation, we'll be able to increase our long-term growth rate by 100 basis points.
Matthew Heinz:
Okay, thanks. And then secondly on the tower side, given the acceleration in bookings that you've seen year-to-date, I'm just wondering what the book-to-bill looks like on that activity and how we should think about the cadence of new leasing revenue showing up in first half 2018 versus maybe the latter part of the year?
Daniel Schlanger:
Yes, Matt, I don't think we're going to get into giving 2018 guidance right now. We'll do that when we announce our third quarter earnings. But like I said before, we're pretty excited about the level of leasing activity and the acceleration we've seen in 2017. We do think that it will hit in 2018 and it'll show up in our guidance, but it's not something that we're going to get into now at this point.
Jay Brown:
Operator, we have time to maybe one more question.
Operator:
We'll take our question from Jonathan Atkin with RBC Capital Markets.
Jonathan Atkin:
Thanks. So looking at the asset over a few slides, Slide 9, I was just wondering if you could provide a little bit more perspective on the business mix of lit services versus dark fiber also in the context of REIT qualified income? Thanks.
Daniel Schlanger:
Yes, the dark fiber is in the neighborhood of about one-third of the overall business mix in Lightower. But as Jay said, when – the distinction between dark and lit gets a little fuzzy because the lit can run a gamut, and what we're looking at within Lightower is that 80% to 85% of it is really on that infrastructure side and not on the service side. So even though only one-third of its dark, what we look at is really how much of it's – that passive "dumb pipe" infrastructure and that's the 80% to 85% that we think qualifies for our REIT inclusion.
Jonathan Atkin:
Is the contract length notably different between those two lines of business, then?
Daniel Schlanger:
Well, the average contract length like we said is four years. So what we see is a very attractive contract profile that we're acquiring, and we think that that's sustainable over time. One of the things that attracted us to this business was, as Jay pointed out, when we've been acquiring fiber assets that included fiber solutions businesses, we had a view of wanting to be in this infrastructure portion of the business, and that's exactly how the Lightower team has thought about it and managed the business over time. So we don't have a huge shift that we would have to make in that. In fact, we can use what they've done and export it to where our fiber sits, and we think that it will be very complementary that way. So we're just excited that the fit works so well for us.
Jonathan Atkin:
Thanks very much.
Jay Brown:
You bet. End of Q&A
Jay Brown:
Well, thanks everyone for joining us this morning. Obviously, as you've heard from our commentary, we believe that Lightower is a great acquisition that we think it’s going to generate significant value for our shareholders and positions us really well to serve customers by expanding our portfolio in some of the best markets in America. So I appreciate you joining this morning and we'll talk to you soon.
Operator:
Thank you, sir. And again, that does conclude our call today. Thank you for your participation. You may disconnect at this time.
Executives:
Son Nguyen - Crown Castle International Corp. Jay A. Brown - Crown Castle International Corp. Daniel K. Schlanger - Crown Castle International Corp.
Analysts:
Brett Feldman - Goldman Sachs & Co. Simon Flannery - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC David William Barden - Bank of America Merrill Lynch Ric H. Prentiss - Raymond James & Associates, Inc. Jonathan Atkin - RBC Capital Markets LLC Philip A. Cusick - JPMorgan Securities LLC Amir Rozwadowski - Barclays Capital, Inc. Colby Synesael - Cowen & Co. LLC Matthew Niknam - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc. Matthew Heinz - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc. Michael I. Rollins - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc. Timothy Horan - Oppenheimer & Co., Inc. Amy Yong - Macquarie Capital (USA), Inc. Batya Levi - UBS Securities LLC Robert Gutman - Guggenheim Securities LLC Walter Piecyk - BTIG LLC Brandon Nispel - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc. Spencer H. Kurn - New Street Research LLP (US) Sydney Marks - MoffettNathanson LLC
Operator:
Good day, and welcome to the Crown Castle First Quarter 2017 Earnings Call. Today's conference is being recorded. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Mr. Son Nguyen. Please go ahead, sir.
Son Nguyen - Crown Castle International Corp.:
Thank you, Ebony, and good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us today as we review our first quarter 2017 results. With me on the call this morning are Jay Brown, Crown Castle's Chief Executive Officer; and Dan Schlanger, Crown Castle's Chief Financial Officer. To aid the discussion, we have posted supplemental materials in the Investors section of our website at crowncastle.com, which we will refer to throughout the call this morning. This conference call will contain forward-looking statements, which are subject to certain risks, uncertainties, and assumptions. And actual results may vary materially from those expected. Information about potential factors which could affect our results is available in the press release and the Risk Factors section of the company's SEC filings. Our statements are made as today, April 25, 2017 and we assume no obligations to update any forward-looking statements. In addition, today's call includes discussion of certain non-GAAP financial measures. Tables reconciling these non-GAAP financial measures are available in the Supplemental Information Package in the Investors section of the company's website at crowncastle.com. With that, I'll turn the call over to Jay.
Jay A. Brown - Crown Castle International Corp.:
Thanks, Son, and thank you, everyone, for joining us this morning on the call. As you saw from our earnings release yesterday, we kicked off 2017 with a great first quarter as we exceeded the high end of our guidance across the board and, again, raised our full year outlook for 2017. Similar to past quarters, this quarter's strong performance is attributable for our continued focus on execution and disciplined capital allocation. This morning, I'd like to highlight several positive data points supporting our strategy of increasing our long-term dividend per share by leasing our towers and fiber and allocating our capital to assets with expected high returns. With scale and capabilities across both towers and small cells, we believe we are well placed to serve our customers by providing them with access to infrastructure they need to deploy and upgrade their network to meet the growing demand for wireless services. On the tower front, over the last several years, we have seen a fairly consistent and healthy leasing environment across our portfolio of 40,000 towers. Exiting the first quarter, we are seeing early signs of increasing activity as the pace of new leases and amendments of existing leases on our towers is above the level at this same time last year. Recent developments like the award of the FirstNet contract and the completion of the 600 megahertz spectrum auction, give us confidence that there continues to be an extended runway of growth for towers. As towers remain the first option in network deployment, providing the most cost-efficient way to increase both coverage and capacity. Turning to small cells, we are seeing a significant increase in activity from our carrier customers as they utilize small cells to augment and further densify their macro networks and deploy spectrum closer to their customers. Our small cell pipeline currently stands at record levels with contracts to deliver nearly 25,000 nodes over the next 18 months to 24 months, which, when completed, will nearly double our existing small cell nodes on-air. Our contracted pipeline is a testament to our customers' confidence in our ability to assist in the deployment of their wireless networks and speaks volumes about the quality of our metro fiber footprint and our industry-leading real estate, network engineering and node construction capabilities. To execute on this growing pipeline and to position us for the next leg of growth in small cells, we are making additional investments to further scale our organization to be in position to deliver approximately 10,000 small cell nodes per year. In addition to investing in capabilities over the past two years, we have made several acquisitions in support of our small cell strategy based on our view that there are substantial small cell opportunities in the top metro markets in the U. S. These acquisitions include Sunesys, with its impressive footprint in Philadelphia and Southern California; FiberNet which includes an extensive network in Miami and Houston; and our recent announcement of our proposed acquisition of Wilcon which has a similarly extensive footprint in Southern California. What really excites us about Wilcon is that it will give us additional fiber assets in our most active and fastest-growing market for small cells, with Southern California representing nearly a quarter of our current pipeline. As you can see on slide 4, Wilcon's footprint complements our existing assets in L.A. and provides us with opportunities to leverage that footprint in the near-term to execute for our customers and save both us and our customers time and money. Taking a step back, the Wilcon assets represent a microcosm of our larger fiber footprint. Our attractive dense metro fiber footprint of over 29,000 route miles pro forma for the Wilcon acquisition is located in the top U.S. markets where we believe there will be sustained and significant small cell demand. This footprint also generally consists of recently built assets with only a fraction of our current fiber assets currently supporting small cells and even then at no densities that we believe will prove to be low, as our customers rely more and more on small cells to expand the networks. As a result, and similar to the early days of towers, we are seeing significant opportunities to drive meaningful return on our fiber assets as we co-locate additional small cell tenants. With what we have seen thus far in our small cell business and the opportunities we anticipate coming towards us as evidenced by our pipeline, we believe small cells is a business that can rival towers in terms of both size and returns over time. We are also very encouraged that the unit economics that originally excited us about small cells have held as the opportunity had significantly expanded. We are in a unique position where we believe we can deliver sustained growth on our existing assets, and because of the significant wireless carrier network investments needed to support growing demand, still have meaningful opportunities to deploy capital and invest in our business to extend and enhance our growth trajectory. As we make these investments and execute on our strategy, we remain focused on creating value for our shareholders and driving long-term growth and dividend per share. And with that, I'll turn the call over to Dan.
Daniel K. Schlanger - Crown Castle International Corp.:
Thanks, Jay, and good morning, everyone. As Jay mentioned, we got off to a great start in 2017 with another quarter of results that exceeded the high end of our prior guidance for site rental revenues, site rental gross margins, adjusted EBITDA and AFFO. Driven by the strong results from the first quarter and healthy leasing activity across both towers and small cells, we are increasing our full year 2017 outlook at the midpoint for site rental revenues, adjusted EBITDA and AFFO. I'll get back to our updated guidance a little later on the call. Turning to first quarter 2017 results, as shown on slide 5, site rental revenues grew approximately 7% or $58 million as compared to the same period in 2016, inclusive of approximately 4% growth derived from organic contribution of site rental revenues. The $34 million or 4% growth from organic contribution to site rental revenues consist of approximately 8% growth from new leasing activity and contracted tenant escalations net of approximately 4% from tenant non-renewals. Moving on to investment activities for the quarter, we closed on our $1.5 billion acquisition of FiberNet and invested an additional $262 million in capital expenditures, including $225 million of revenue generating capital expenditures across towers and small cells that we believe will generate compelling returns and deliver long-term growth in dividends per share. Also, as Jay mentioned, last week, we announced a definitive agreement to acquire Wilcon for $600 million. We expect the acquisition to close in the third quarter of 2017 and intend to finance the transaction in a manner consistent with maintaining our current investment grade credit metrics. Additionally, we returned significant capital to our shareholders during the first quarter with our quarterly common stock dividend totaling $348 million or $0.95 per share, representing growth of 7% on a per-share basis as compared to the same period a year ago. We continue to believe that providing a portion of shareholder return in the form of a dividend aligns well with our business which is characterized by high-quality, long-term recurring cash flows. Moving on to financing activities during the quarter, we took additional steps to proactively manage the balance sheet by extending our debt maturity profile and increasing our financial flexibility all while maintaining our weighted average borrowing costs. Specifically, we raised $500 million of additional term loans with proceeds to be used to repay outstanding borrowings under the revolver. We extended the maturity of our credit facilities by one year with maturities now in 2022 and we accessed the investment green bond market, raising $500 million in 10-year notes with a 4% coupon. We also used these proceeds to prepay outstanding borrowings under the revolver. Following these financing activities, the balance sheet remains in great shape, with no meaningful maturities prior to 2020, a weighted average maturity of approximately six years, a 4% average borrowing rate and approximately $2.2 billion of undrawn availability under the revolver. Our focus on maintaining a strong balance sheet positions us well to continue to invest in our business while providing the flexibility to pursue attractive acquisitions. Turning now to slide 6, we are increasing our full year 2017 outlook at the midpoint for site rental revenues, adjusted EBITDA and AFFO by $5 million, $14 million and $4 million, respectively. The improved outlook for 2017 reflects an increase in tower leasing activity from $90 million at the midpoint of our prior guidance to $95 million currently, an increase in expected network services gross margin, as we are seeing a return to the level of market share we experienced in 2016, and our expectations for continued healthy leasing activity across our portfolio of towers and small cells. This is partially offset by higher anticipated costs associated with investments we are making to capitalize on the increasing small cell activity Jay discussed earlier. Compared to our previous outlook, our updated guidance for full year 2017 reflects increases to expenses of approximately $10 million and to sustaining capital expenditures of approximately $5 million. Given the long cycle time required to bring nodes on-air, the anticipated revenue benefits associated with our record small cell pipeline are expected to come in the second half of 2018 and beyond. Importantly, we believe we will generate yields of approximately 10% on the build-out of this pipeline. This 10% is a blend of approximately 70% anchor build that expand our footprint and generate yields of 6% to 7% and 30% co-location opportunities that generate yields in the high-teens by leveraging our existing fiber infrastructure. We're excited by this increase in our small cell business and the yields that we're achieving in the near term, and we believe these investments will position us to generate attractive incremental cash flows and returns in the future. Continuing on, our current full year outlook does not include the expected contribution from Wilcon of approximately $40 million in gross margin and $10 million in G&A in the first 12 months of ownership. Nor does it include the impact from the expected financing of the acquisition. To wrap up, we remain enthusiastic about the opportunity that lies ahead for Crown Castle. We have positioned the company to capitalize on the long-term growth trends and mobile data consumption with our leading portfolio of critical wireless infrastructure assets. That includes 40,000 towers and more than 29,000 miles of fiber supporting small cells pro forma for the pending Wilcon acquisition. We believe the combination of our portfolio of assets and our proven expertise in delivering for our carrier customers at scale creates a compelling opportunity for Crown Castle to continue to provide value to our customers while generating long-term total returns for our shareholders from a combination of steady growth and attractive dividends. With that, Ebony, I'd like to open the call to questions.
Operator:
Thank you. And we will take our first question from Brett Feldman with Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.
Brett Feldman - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Thanks for taking the question. In the past, you've given us some good color talking about how the early lease-up you're seeing on small cells is actually kind of in line what you saw in towers back when towers was an emerging model. The other side of the equation that investors like to focus on a lot is the cost associated with scaling small cells. And obviously, you're folding some additional cost into your outlook right now to support that growth. Is there any story you can tell about how the investment levels you're making in the small cell business may be similar or different to what you were doing, I guess, a while ago as you are building up your tower footprint? I guess what we're trying to think about the pace at which you're going to see more operating leverage emerge in small cells and to what extent it may correlate with what we historically saw in the tower space?
Jay A. Brown - Crown Castle International Corp.:
Yeah, Brett, happy to do that. I think the important point to note here is that the all-in returns of small cells are higher than what we originally saw when we were investing in towers and building towers, and that would be all-inclusive in both the operating cost and capital costs. So that's a component of it. The second component of it is that, from a co-location standpoint, we're seeing the lease-up on these assets occur faster than what we originally saw when we built towers back in the late 1990s and then early 2000s as we were developing the tower portfolio. The lease-up is a bit faster and the total returns are a bit higher. And I think as you heard us speak about, the pipeline that we're looking at, there was a significant stair-step increase in the amount of activity that we saw during the first quarter of this year, which is why we're ramping up on the operating side our abilities to scale for that. So we've talked historically about our level of G&A and staffing was around our ability to deliver somewhere in the neighborhood of 6,000 nodes to 7,000 nodes on an annual basis, and then this stair-step increase that we received over the first quarter means we really need to be developing about 10,000 a year. So we're scaling the business in order to be able to meet the demand that we're seeing.
Brett Feldman - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Great. And just quick follow-up question. I think Dan alluded to this, but it sounds like your anchor tenants are still paying you initial rents that work out to the targeted 6% or 7% yield. Is that correct?
Jay A. Brown - Crown Castle International Corp.:
That's correct. And then the co-location activity continues to be where we expected. So on a blended basis, as we talked about in the pipeline, the 25,000 nodes that we have contracted, the mix there is about 30% co-location and about 70% anchors, and the returns and yields that we've spoken of in the past, those have held as the business has grown.
Brett Feldman - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Great. Thanks for taking the question.
Jay A. Brown - Crown Castle International Corp.:
You bet.
Operator:
And we will take our next question from Simon Flannery with Morgan Stanley.
Simon Flannery - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
Thanks. Jay, you talked about being encouraged by some of the activity you're seeing on the tower leasing so far this year versus 2016. Can you just talk about just the overall environment here since we've seen unlimited pervasive throughout the industry and traffic growth accelerating? Have you seen a material change in behavior? Or is that what you're referencing with the small cells? And how should we think about you getting to MLAs on 600 megahertz on FirstNet? Is that something by next quarter perhaps you'll have agreements for deployment on that? And any impact to 2017 or is that really more 2018? Thank you.
Jay A. Brown - Crown Castle International Corp.:
Yes. On the first question around tower leasing in the first quarter, as you saw from the numbers, we raised our outlook for tower leasing based on what we saw during the first quarter. Some of that is, frankly, just normal activity and we really haven't gotten to what we believe we'll receive from FirstNet and 600 megahertz. That's not in our outlook. In all likelihood, based on the timing, I think the impact of that is likely to be a 2018 event rather than a 2017 event. So most of the activities that were or all of the activities that we're referencing in the guide for 2017 will just be related to the activity we've seen thus far. Certainly, historically, the plans that are offered to customers by the wireless carriers that drive increased usage for data results in invest – in additional capital investment to improve and densify the networks and we're the beneficiaries of that investment. So the trend line of increased usage and an unlimited data plan is a good thing for our business and generally results in additional revenue growth. So maybe we saw a little bit of the early signs of that in the first quarter. And then to your second question, the opportunity there is more longer term. As to how ultimately we'll structure those agreements, in the past we've taken various approaches to assist the carriers on speed and used. In some cases, as you referenced, we've taken an MLA approach where they've committed to a certain level of activity upfront. In other cases, we've just done it as they touched the assets, then we see the step-up in revenue. And we're open to both approaches. Both have proven over time to be valuable ways to contract with the customers. And based on their desire and willingness to go one way or another, we're open to both approaches.
Simon Flannery - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
Great. Thank you.
Operator:
And we'll take our next question from David Barden with Bank of America. Please go ahead.
David William Barden - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Hey, guys. Thanks for taking the questions. I guess, first one would be, Dan, I think you've mentioned that the bulk of the revenue opportunity for the backlog of small cells, which you said was 25,000 was going to be in the second half of 2018. I guess two questions around that. One would be what's the total revenue backlog if you could put a number around that? And then second kind of what is the activity that happens between now and 2018 that moves the small cell revenue needle, if it's not that backlog? And then on the second question, if I could, Jay, could you kind of elaborate a little bit as to the level of firmness that you've reached with your negotiations with AT&T on the FirstNet deployment and how you kind of envision that flowing through the income statement? Is that just going through, say, the tower revenue line? Or is it a co-mingling of small cell and tower opportunities or other things? Could you talk about how that negotiation process is coming along? Thanks.
Daniel K. Schlanger - Crown Castle International Corp.:
Yes. Thanks, Dave. I'll take the first couple and then I'll pass it over to Jay for the last one. You mentioned just trying to size the opportunity in the small cells, we talked about the yields that we think we're going to get being around 10%. We think the capital that's going to be required is around $1.2 billion or so. And so what we're looking at is on a run rate basis, when it's all installed and all on air, which like we said is late 2018, early 2019 is around $120 million, give or take. Those aren't going to be exact but they will be ballpark numbers. And what's going to move the needle between now and then is, as Jay talked about, this was a stair-step move in the first quarter. So we had a backlog before, but we added a bunch in the first quarter. It's the backlog that we had before that we will execute on that will allow us to grow between now and the end of 2018, but we won't see the bulk of this really big stair-step until the end of 2018, early 2019 given the timing and pace the way that the contracts came in.
David William Barden - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Got it.
Jay A. Brown - Crown Castle International Corp.:
On your second question, I don't want to get into specific negotiations with any of our customers on a call, but the big picture, maybe it's helpful to talk a little bit about the timeline around FirstNet. FirstNet has a responsibility to submit to each of the states by September 30 of this year their plan for build-out and then the states have the opportunity to opt in or opt out of that plan by the end of this year so 12/31 of 2017. And any of the states that opt out of the FirstNet federal approach have about six months to lay out what their plan is for deployment. So I think in terms of timing and when we'll have more clarity, my guess is as we get into the first quarter of 2018, we'll probably start to have some clarity as to what states are going to be in the FirstNet approach and which states will opt out and go down the path of doing it by themselves. I think at that point, then we'll start to have some view of where the revenue opportunity is. Obviously, the timelines from the public disclosures as required by this license, it's a significantly – a significant build-out that happens on a relatively close timeline. Geographic coverage is somewhere in the neighborhood of about 20% over the first 12 months and has to be that 60% geographic coverage after 24 months. So there is a significant build coming, and the form that it takes and one of the impacts to us is going to be, I think, we got to just wait and see over the next few months here. We start to have some clarity around who's going to ultimately build the system.
David William Barden - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Great. Thanks, Jay.
Jay A. Brown - Crown Castle International Corp.:
Yes.
Operator:
And we will take our next question from Ric Prentiss with Raymond James. Please go ahead. Caller, please check your mute function.
Ric H. Prentiss - Raymond James & Associates, Inc.:
I am sorry about that. Can you hear me now?
Jay A. Brown - Crown Castle International Corp.:
Yes.
Ric H. Prentiss - Raymond James & Associates, Inc.:
A couple questions, guys. Thanks. Appreciate the color on the small cell backlog. Dan, you mentioned that CapEx might be $1.2 billion. Can you help us understand kind of the timeframe of that that might take to hit the CapEx line? And then a second question, on the $10 million employee cost, you mentioned that that's for installation and production. Any way to capitalize that instead of expensing it, or what are the – what does that employee base doing, is it sales, is it maintenance, or is truly building? Thanks.
Daniel K. Schlanger - Crown Castle International Corp.:
Yes, thanks, Ric. So the timing of the capital spend will likely follow just a little earlier than the timing of revenue.
Ric H. Prentiss - Raymond James & Associates, Inc.:
Sure.
Daniel K. Schlanger - Crown Castle International Corp.:
But we can't give you an exact number on that. It will roll out over the next, call it, 18 months or so. But as we talked about, there was a pretty big stair-step in the last quarter so this will be a little bit back-end loaded from that. In terms of the $10 million, that $10 million is the expectation – the expectation of what is expensed and not capitalized. So we will capitalize a lot of the labor that will go into the projects, and this will be more of the management level that we tend not to be able to capitalize in addition to any time that isn't directly related to projects.
Ric H. Prentiss - Raymond James & Associates, Inc.:
Okay. And then not anything specific on FirstNet of the broadcast spectrum, but what type of equipment are you hearing being discussed because, obviously, both are low band frequencies, might be big antennas. So we're trying to frame it or size it for people who are trying to figure out does it look like this will be co-location, will it be amendment activity, but what's the early thoughts on what might be involved with the low band FirstNet and broadcast spectrum?
Jay A. Brown - Crown Castle International Corp.:
Ric, it's still probably too early to know exactly what that's going to look like. I walked through the FirstNet timeline. Obviously, the 600 megahertz auction has just been completed, so it's really too early to be that specific. So, historically, if you go back and look what has happened over a long period of time through multiple different spectrum auctions and deployments of networks, the first wave of activity tends to be amendments on existing sites. And as additional spectrum bands are deployed by carriers, we already have existing infrastructure. We see them such a significant portion of their existing network and overlay that and that brings about meaningful amendment activity. And then the second phase comes back to densification and adding additional sites. We think we'll see that on both the tower and the small cell side as they increase the density of their network and deploy that spectrum. So it's obviously a positive for us, but the ultimate – what's the value per site for us to get a little further down the road to know what the impact there is going to be.
Ric H. Prentiss - Raymond James & Associates, Inc.:
Good to have it happening for you guys and the country. So, let's see it happening. Thanks.
Operator:
And we will take our next question from Jonathan Atkin with RBC Capital Markets.
Jonathan Atkin - RBC Capital Markets LLC:
Thanks. So I had a couple of questions. I wonder if you could comment on the growth that you have seen on the legacy T-Mobile assets versus, say, the legacy AT&T assets as well as just the legacy Crown assets. And then my question on fiber relates to Wilcon, again, looking at kind of a Southern California fiber market and the number of players there. Sunesys is obviously quite, quite big, the company that you bought as is Wilcon. And how does the state regulator look at those sorts of topics around fiber footprint when it comes to approving the deal? Thanks.
Jay A. Brown - Crown Castle International Corp.:
Do you want to take the first one?
Daniel K. Schlanger - Crown Castle International Corp.:
Yeah. On the leasing on the T-Mobile asset, I think what we say about – across all the portfolio assets, the leasing is generally consistent. And we've seen the leasing to take form and exactly what we would have expected at this point. So it's still adding about one tenant every 10 years on all of those portfolios of assets. We don't see a whole lot of differentiation between them, but they're all performing as well as we would have expected.
Jay A. Brown - Crown Castle International Corp.:
On the second question, the timeline, if we talked about for regulatory approval is we think that will happen sometime during the third quarter of this year. So we would expect to close on Wilcon during the third quarter. As you can see from the map that we provided in both the supplemental when we announced the transaction and as well as the provided slides this morning, you can see the portfolios are really complementary. So there's very little to no overlap of the fiber there in L.A. and we believe that the opportunity there for us is significant as we continue to deploy wireless. And I think we've been really specific over a long period of time as we look at these acquisitions around what makes this fiber attractive to us. There are obviously a number of fiber providers in the L. A. market that had differing business models than our intention and strategy is in that market. And what's interesting to us in both the Sunesys and Wilcon acquisition is the location of that fiber that we believe ultimately will be valuable for the deployment of wireless networks. As I mentioned in my comments, that most of the fiber is relatively recently built and has a relatively low amount of revenue per fiber mile, and the real opportunity here is to use it in ways and provision it in ways that it hasn't been done thus far and the deployment of small cells on the wireless network side. And so we're pretty excited about the opportunity. We think the regulatory approach is pretty straightforward and think it gets wrapped up sometime during the third quarter.
Jonathan Atkin - RBC Capital Markets LLC:
Thank you very much.
Operator:
And we will take our next question from Phil Cusick with JPMorgan. Please go ahead.
Philip A. Cusick - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Hey. Thank you. It certainly doesn't seem like there's any dearth of opportunity in small cell despite some carriers starting to do more of their own work. Is this a significant broadening of the customer base? And what's the RFP pipeline look like? Does it imply a further acceleration from even what's already been signed? Thanks.
Jay A. Brown - Crown Castle International Corp.:
Thanks for the question, Phil. There is two things that I think are highlight for what we're talking about this morning. One of the highlights is the pure scaling of the opportunity here. As we've talked about this, this is a stair-step. It's a double from everything that we've done life to date. So the amount and scale of this opportunity is significantly greater than anything we've seen in the past. And I think it supports our view that, ultimately, small cells have the potential to be as big as towers are. So I think that's important from a scaling standpoint, and it is a reflection of the broadening of the activity across multiple carriers. The other important point to make this morning which I think is then an area where people, to the extent they've been skeptical about small cells, the skepticism has been around whether or not there are truly co-location opportunities from the deployment of small cells. And as we look at that pipeline today of about 25,000 nodes, as Dan mentioned in his comments, about 30% of those are co-location which means that in the pipeline today, there's as many co-location opportunities on the existing fiber footprint as we're doing in total on an annual basis currently. So the model is proving out both in terms of co-location and expansion of the returns as well as the scaling of the opportunity. And my view is those are two very good signs that we're on the right track from a strategy standpoint. And in terms of does it continue, we believe so. I mean I continue to believe this business has the opportunity be the same size as our existing tower business. Thus far, with almost entirely all of the activity has been focused on the top 10 markets in the U.S. – top 10 to top 20 markets in the U.S., that's driving the vast majority of the nodes to date as well as the nodes in the contracted pipeline, then we believe that the opportunity is going to expand well beyond the top 10 markets in the U.S. and so believe there's a lot of opportunity here for growth in both revenues but, more importantly, growth in returns over time as capitals invested in fiber ahead of the deployment of small cells.
Philip A. Cusick - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
So in terms of...
Jay A. Brown - Crown Castle International Corp.:
Sorry just to jump in, Phil. In the meantime, Jay mentioned this earlier and so did I, that the returns that we're seeing on these assets as we put them out are exactly what we've seen over time. So we haven't seen any deterioration even with the significant expansion of the market. So we're seeing anchor build at 6% to 7% still. And the overall of this huge pipeline being at 10% just speaks well to the location of our assets and our capabilities and ability to deliver for our customers because we're getting what we thought we would get out of these assets in the near-term and it positions us for lots of growth in the future.
Philip A. Cusick - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
And in terms of the RFP pipeline, are there more deals that are in the pipeline? Or is this sort of as much as you're comfortable signing for now?
Jay A. Brown - Crown Castle International Corp.:
We've historically only talk about what's contracted. So if you look at what are – if you would ask the question in terms of what are we chasing, sure, we're chasing lots of opportunities but they're not contracted yet. And happy to give you an update as those become contracted and in our pipeline and we're working on building them. But as big as the total market opportunity is where you can speculate on, we're aiming towards being a significant portion of that total market opportunity. And what we're talking about this morning is what – of that opportunity we've already contracted and are working on.
Daniel K. Schlanger - Crown Castle International Corp.:
And the reason that we pointed out the costs that were associated with this pipeline is because we think it will continue or we wouldn't have that in kind of a recurring type of thought process in our guidance. So we believe this type of pipeline will continue.
Philip A. Cusick - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
If I can follow up, Verizon talked recently about deploying something like 1,400 strands of fiber per route. What does your current rollout architecture look like?
Jay A. Brown - Crown Castle International Corp.:
Phil, it depends on where we're deploying it and how many nodes we believe will ultimately be there. So we look at what we believe to be the density of nodes across a given mile of fiber and then the size it based on that. We found over time that scaling the fiber and adding additional strands, oftentimes if you look at what's the conduit there with the ability to add additional fiber strands over time and then what's the opportunity and then we size the fiber build based on that.
Philip A. Cusick - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Okay. Thanks, Jay.
Jay A. Brown - Crown Castle International Corp.:
You bet.
Operator:
And we will take our next question from Nick Del Deo with MoffettNathanson. Please go ahead. And caller, please check your mute function. And with no response, we will move to our next question, comes from Amir Rozwadowski with Barclays. Please go ahead.
Amir Rozwadowski - Barclays Capital, Inc.:
Thank you very much and good morning, folks. I was wondering if we could chat a bit more about sort of your appetite for further fiber, bolstering your fiber footprint. I mean clearly, you folks have been focused on selecting the right type of assets in order to capitalize on this rising small cell opportunity. How do you think about sort of your footprint as it stands today and the potential to expand that footprint going forward?
Jay A. Brown - Crown Castle International Corp.:
Amir, we would think about it in a similar way that we've undertaken all of the acquisitions that we've done so far, and I pointed out three of them in my comments which I think are indicative of our approach, where there are specific markets, there are dense fiber footprints in top metro markets in the U.S., and there were places where we had contracted pipeline in nodes and we thought it made sense to go out and find fiber to do that to use for those contracts rather than building the fiber from scratch. There may be opportunities for that in the future, but it's going to come down to what do we have as opportunity sets in front of us, and we continue to be focused on the wireless aspect of the infrastructure, what the opportunity is there from the wireless carriers for small cell nodes. And then to the extent we need to acquire fiber to do that and to meet that demand, then I think that's on the table of potential solutions.
Amir Rozwadowski - Barclays Capital, Inc.:
Great. And one follow-up, if I may. There's been ongoing speculation or concerns that as small cells continue to permeate the market that can diminish the macro site opportunity. Obviously, that's not a new concern. Recently, there's been reports or discussions that one of the more aggressive carriers on the small cell front has also expanded its densification initiatives on the macro side. Just wondering, given sort of your positioning and the demand that you're seeing on both ends, can we move past that argument at this point? I mean, are you seeing the demand on both fronts balanced going forward in terms of new spectrum deployment and opportunity sets at both the macro and small cell front?
Jay A. Brown - Crown Castle International Corp.:
Amir, I guess the great benefit we have given our scale on both towers and small cells is we can truly see how complementary the two approaches in infrastructure are. And you can see from our results over the last couple of years. Tower leasing has continued at the same level as it has been at. At the same time, there's been investment and an increase in activity around small cells. So they are complementary and work together to densify the carriers' networks, and we're not seeing any signs of that changing.
Amir Rozwadowski - Barclays Capital, Inc.:
Great. Thanks very much for the incremental color.
Jay A. Brown - Crown Castle International Corp.:
You bet.
Operator:
And we will take our next question from Colby Synesael with Cowen and Company. Please go ahead.
Colby Synesael - Cowen & Co. LLC:
Great. Thank you. Two, if I may. Starting with churn, when I look at the guidance the guidance update that you provided, you slightly increased your expectations for churn. But then when I looked in your supplemental, you slightly took down your expectations for the acquired network churn, so the lead MetroPCS and Clearwire. So I guess traditional churn, if you will, is anticipated, call it, maybe $5 million. And I'm just curious what's driving that. There's obviously a lot of discussion in the market. And we've all seen the various letters that the carriers have sent to the tower operators in terms of trying to renegotiate or at least threatening to potentially leave. And I'm just curious if you're seeing any of that? And then second question, by our account, maybe two-thirds, maybe three-fourths of your current fiber business is not small cell or maybe even not even wireless related. I'm just curious what's the growth rate for that portion of your business or that portion of your fiber business right now? And what's your current thinking and your comfortability with that business in terms of pursuing those opportunities?
Jay A. Brown - Crown Castle International Corp.:
Sure. On the first question around churn, we're not seeing – we don't have a different expectation for churn for calendar year 2017 than what we did previously. The timing of that churn occurred a little earlier than our previous expectation, but we haven't made any changes there for what we expect over the course of the full year. On the second question around pricing in the market, we've talked about this for a long period of time. We haven't seen any change in the pricing on towers or on small cells. We talked a lot extensively this morning about the economics around small cells and how they've held since the beginning. So the economic trade there for both towers and small cells has stayed the same. We haven't seen any change in the pricing environment. I talked about this, I think, a lot in the last conference call. When you look at how we propose an economic trade to the wireless operators, the reality is this infrastructure being shared provides them with the lowest cost alternative, and that has been demonstrated over a number of different business cycles over a long period of time that it's far more cost effective for them to share the infrastructure than it is to own it themselves. And I think that's what supports the pricing model is that the lease cost, if you will, on the economic side is very low relative to their cost of capital. And so sharing the infrastructure provides their lowest cost alternative. And so we haven't seen any change in the pricing environment. On the last...
Colby Synesael - Cowen & Co. LLC:
That's great – go ahead, sir.
Jay A. Brown - Crown Castle International Corp.:
Did you want to follow up on that?
Colby Synesael - Cowen & Co. LLC:
No, I was going to ask about the growth but it sounds like you're going to go after that right now.
Jay A. Brown - Crown Castle International Corp.:
I was. On the wireless and non-wireless side, we underwrote these assets and they did come with some non-wireless revenues, a portion we've talked about the K-12 business that we have. That business we think will continue to grow. Frankly, we didn't underwrite it in our models. Our underwriting models were based on what we thought we could do from a wireless perspective and the opportunity for small cells. We do think that the fiber, given where it's located, is going to continue to have the benefit of customers like K-12 and providing broadband Internet access to schools. That revenue tends to be pretty stable and have characteristics that look similar to what we've experienced on the wireless side in terms of length of contract and renewal rates and other things. So that revenue may continue to grow. Frankly, we continue to spend most of our time and effort focused on the wireless side. From an absolute growth rate perspective, it's basically in line with what we're seeing on the wireless side, maybe a little less than that. But the focus from a strategic standpoint is on the wireless side.
Colby Synesael - Cowen & Co. LLC:
Is that in your guidance, Jay? Are you guys assuming that in the numbers you provided for guidance?
Jay A. Brown - Crown Castle International Corp.:
Yes, of course. We have to assume what we believe across the whole business for all of the providers of tenant leasing; so that would be in there.
Colby Synesael - Cowen & Co. LLC:
Great. Thank you.
Jay A. Brown - Crown Castle International Corp.:
You bet.
Operator:
We will move next to Matthew Niknam with Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.
Matthew Niknam - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Hi, guys. Thank you for taking the questions. Just one on small cells. Is the increase in pipeline and doubling of nodes you're talking about, is that able to be met with fiber you own today or do you think it requires more M&A to add to your footprint? I'm just trying to get a better sense of the $1.2 billion in capital you talked about. And then just on the back of that leverage-wise, given how robust the pipeline is on small cells, does that change in any way how you think about leverage targets and comfort levels? Thanks.
Jay A. Brown - Crown Castle International Corp.:
On the first question, Matthew, the $1.2 billion of capital cost that we're talking about, that includes what we need to build from a fiber standpoint. So we've not assumed any acquisitions to the extent that we don't have existing fiber footprint. That's assumed in that $1.2 billion and the returns that Dan talked about is an all-in return of about 10% yield on that invested capital.
Daniel K. Schlanger - Crown Castle International Corp.:
In terms of leverage, I think that we're comfortable with our targets and what we said immediately following the Wilcon acquisition and then now that we want to finance that type of acquisition in a way that would maintain our investment grade credit metrics. And then with respect to just how we think through the investments in the pipeline, we think we can withstand that and hold that with our current investment grade because it is important for us to maintain investment grade ratings. We think we can do so and still fund that type of acquisition with internally generated cash flows and increased debt capacity.
Matthew Niknam - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
And if I could just follow up, with the pipeline driving a little bit of a pickup in revenue in the second half of 2018, is it fair to expect then maybe your profitability and AFFO per share growth could accelerate as well given that you're embedding the $15 million in OpEx and CapEx today but won't really see the real revenue lift till – in about, we'll call it, 18 months? I'm just trying to get a sense of how to think about that 6% to 7% target potentially accelerating into 2018.
Jay A. Brown - Crown Castle International Corp.:
Matthew, all else is equal in terms of our other assumptions like interest rates and other things. We believe that as that small cell activity that we've been talking about materializes over the next 18 months to 24 months, we would expect our AFFO per share growth rate to exceed our 6% to 7% target. That has been the revenue assumption there, is obviously a key assumption in our growth rate. This kind of scaling of that activity would result in us being above our targeted range.
Matthew Niknam - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Excellent. Thank you.
Operator:
We'll take our next question from Matthew Heinz with Stifel. Please go ahead.
Matthew Heinz - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.:
Thanks. You talked about the stair-step move in the small cell backlog during 1Q. I guess how instrumental was the Wilcon fiber in your ability to close and, ultimately, deliver on those commitments? And I guess generally can you just talk about the geographic distribution of the 25k nodes and how heavily concentrated might that be in the Southern California market?
Jay A. Brown - Crown Castle International Corp.:
Yeah. On your first question, we thought it was the fastest way to deploy the nodes that we had under contract, so it is helpful on that front. But I believe we would've delivered for customers if we would've needed to find a different way to do it, but we thought the most cost effective and highest returning approach was to approach Wilcon and to ultimately win that asset. So that did factor into our thinking. In terms of where the pipeline is located, about 80% of the 25,000 nodes are in the top 10 markets. And as I mentioned in the comments, about quarter of the total nodes would be in the Southern California market.
Matthew Heinz - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.:
Okay. Thanks. And maybe then just to combine kind of the question around lit services outside of wireless and also M&A. As you think about acquiring fiber assets, how much of a role does the existing lit revenue play into what assets you choose to ultimately pursue? And is there kind of a threshold that you feel comfortable with and taking on some lit business that may not be your core competency?
Jay A. Brown - Crown Castle International Corp.:
Yeah. I think there are a couple elements that drive this and I – you obviously heard my comments earlier around our approach and how we underwrite the assets with wireless opportunity that we believe is going to come from small cell nodes. As we evaluated, there are components of it, and I would not assume that all of it is lit because a big portion of the fiber that we actually lease and receive revenue for is dark fiber contracts. We see that in K-12 business as well as some of the enterprise solutions that we do. So, we have components of both dark and lit. What we're not in the business of doing and providing the higher layer of fiber services. So we think about the business as just being, to the extent that it's a dump pipe that we're leasing, that's good revenue to us and we clearly around here would've called that gravy. So to the extent that we can own fiber and use that fiber as a dump pipe and lease it to other providers and enhance the returns, whether that be for schools or large enterprises, we think it makes sense to take the additional returns, and so we'll pursue that business. As I mentioned in an answer to your question a few minutes ago, the characteristics for those leases look pretty similar to what we've seen around towers, high renewal rates, steady cash flows, longer lease terms. So we think that makes sense to take that additional yield on the assets. But as we think about what is interesting to us, the only way that it's really interesting to us as an asset class is to the extent that we think there's going to be significant wireless opportunity.
Matthew Heinz - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.:
Okay. Thank you.
Operator:
And we will take our next question from Michael Rollins with Citi. Please go ahead.
Michael I. Rollins - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.:
Hi. Thanks for taking the questions. Two, if I could. I'm not sure if you mentioned this specifically, but the $140 million in the first quarter that you described as small cells, can you give us a sense of the composition of what percentage of that is dark versus maybe the percent of lit or SILEC services that you have to take on with some of these acquisitions? And then secondly, how do you view in terms of the valuation $1 of fiber revenue versus $1 of tower revenue. And how do you believe your investors are perceiving that value as well? Thanks.
Daniel K. Schlanger - Crown Castle International Corp.:
So, I'll take the first part of that question. We provide the segment disclosure based on what we think is important. So the $140 million is what we get offset or what what we would do in the small cell segment. And breaking it down further is not something that we're prepared to do at this point. I can point to you that we have announced what the revenue and gross margin have been associated with the acquisitions we've done that have some of the non-wireless revenue on it. And you can go back and look at what that was. And it's not tremendously different as Jay pointed out. It isn't growing significantly enough different to have a huge impact on the overall small cell segment.
Jay A. Brown - Crown Castle International Corp.:
Now on your second question, Mike, around the value, obviously, we'll leave it to investors to figure out what they believe the value is. But in my view, as we look at the business, we believe $1 of revenue from small cells is as valuable as $1 of revenue from the tower business. It has all the same characteristics, long-term committed contract, annual escalations, the same components of we don't have the incremental cost as we add additional tenant, high returns, ultimately, as the asset is leased up. And then in terms of the characteristics around the physical asset themselves, we find the dynamics to be very similar to that of towers. It's obviously still early days and the tower business has been a phenomenal business for a long period of time. So over time, we need to prove out that small cells has the same characteristics and sustains itself in the same way the towers have for the last couple of decades. But in the early days, all of the signs and data points that we see in the business now operating the business at really significant scale, you'd be hard-pressed to find the data point that wouldn't suggest that this business is headed towards a similar outcome to that of towers.
Michael I. Rollins - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.:
And then I just ask one more follow-up. When you look at the totality of your revenue bridge for each of the last, call it five, six quarters, we've seen that revenue escalation percent rate decelerate, and we've seen the churn come up a little bit. You've commented earlier on some of the factors per churn. But is part of the trend on the deceleration escalator and the pickup in churn, is that related to the fiber businesses coming into the portfolio where you're buying businesses that might not escalate as quickly or might be dealing with some churn issues over the non-wireless revenue that you might not find as strategic?
Jay A. Brown - Crown Castle International Corp.:
No. It's related to the ending of the MLA agreements that we had with customers, as we move from the committed amounts of activity on the sites to doing them on more of a pay as they touch the site basis. So the escalator came down. So that's the reason why that's come down. And as we talked about on the last several conference calls, we're now at a point where all of the activity that we see from customers is as they touch the site, there's a revenue impact rather than baking into our higher escalator over a period of time. So that's the reason for the movement in escalators. Back to my earlier point around pricing, we haven't seen any change in the pricing environment with the operators.
Michael I. Rollins - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.:
Thanks very much.
Jay A. Brown - Crown Castle International Corp.:
You bet.
Operator:
And we will take our next question from Timothy Horan with Oppenheimer. Please go ahead.
Timothy Horan - Oppenheimer & Co., Inc.:
Thanks. Three quick clarifications, maybe. Are we still seeing three small cells equal kind of one macro tower broadly speaking? And Jay, just following-up on this, I know you keep seeing it, but do the carriers understand your argument on pricing? And there's a lot of volume a year ago, six months ago, but it seems like their arguments on pricing really haven't heard much about in the last few months. Just curious where you think they are in their mindset? And then lastly, can you just maybe talk qualitatively where you are with churn over the next couple of years and maybe possibly what you've learned from churn with PCS and corrected for any kind of future M&A? Thank you.
Jay A. Brown - Crown Castle International Corp.:
Yeah. On the first question around small cells and equating those to towers, as Dan talked about, the unit economics have not changed as the opportunity has scaled. And so it's important that we tie this back to thinking about yields and returns, because if we're building some of these systems in the central business district, the pricing may look different than once we get out of a central business district, but in terms of dollars per node because we're pricing the systems on a return basis. And I think the best way to speak about it and think about it, Tim, is the way you heard Dan and I talked about that on the call which is we focus on returns. And the unit economics for that first tenant are in the neighborhood of about a 6% to 7% yield for us, and then the second tenant, significantly higher than that as we leverage the existing capital that's been invested there. So roughly on the unit economics, it's roughly the same but probably better to continue to think about it in terms of the yield or return on assets rather than tying yourself too much to $1 per node because it's depending on where that node is, you may get a different answer. Around the discussions with the wireless operators, it's completely fair for them to always look to drive down cost in their business, and we believe that's the value proposition that we present to them. So the conversation that we would have with them is similar to the conversation that I've articulated this morning around, we've got to provide real value for the value proposition that we've given the pricing components. And we believe on the alternative to sharing the infrastructure, the cost would be much greater. So our value proposition is the lowest-cost alternative. And I think our operating results, whether you look at the amount of leasing that we've had consistently over the last several years, we look at things like the escalators, the renewal rate, other things around the business, all of those point to a pricing environment and leasing environment that's very similar to what we've seen historically. And I think that's driven by, at the core of that is the value proposition that we provide to the carriers.
Daniel K. Schlanger - Crown Castle International Corp.:
Yes. And on the churn, Tim, you can see from our supplemental, we think the acquired network churn is going to be over time and it's going down over time, and we anticipate it to be generally over by 2019. But in terms of the non-acquired, the normal churn, as we would call it, we talked about it earlier, we believe it's in the same range it has been for a long time. There's just the timing impact for 2017. So we think that the acquired network churn was additional. I think that's what you're looking for a little bit more color on. And what we've seen and you can see there is that it takes a little while for an acquired network to turn into an acquired network churn. And then it takes a little while even for that acquired network churn to happen. Because I think as the carriers try to compete more and more on quality of network and consistency of network and the coverage, taking down a lot of network isn't what's really in their best interest. It's in their best interest is to deploy more spectrum on our sites. So we're seeing them and they have over time pushed out a bunch of churn over time, but also just it doesn't happen immediately upon the acquisition of the consolidation of the market. So does that address the question you're asking?
Timothy Horan - Oppenheimer & Co., Inc.:
Yeah. But Dan, do you think they end up doing a little bit less given the unlimited plans and everything we've seen in terms of roaming?
Daniel K. Schlanger - Crown Castle International Corp.:
Yeah. We think that given the significant increase in data demand, they will do less churn, yes. And we said more positively, we think there's going to be a tremendous amount of leasing due to the fact that there's a lot of data demand over the course of the next 5 to 10 years. And so whether you look at that whatever study you want to look at, whether it's 40% or 50% a year, there's a tremendous amount of data demand that we think will drive leasing.
Timothy Horan - Oppenheimer & Co., Inc.:
Thank you.
Operator:
Our next question will come from Amy Yong with Macquarie. Please go ahead.
Amy Yong - Macquarie Capital (USA), Inc.:
Thanks. A quick question on Wilcon. Obviously, the footprint is very complementary to Sunesys. I was wondering if you could talk about the growth profile, and how we should think about that $40 million gross margin contribution going forward. And then also is that embedded in your 2018 and beyond guidance on small cells? Thank you.
Jay A. Brown - Crown Castle International Corp.:
Yeah. The growth profile there is going to be driven as I talked about, about quarter of the contracted pipeline is in that Southern California market. So those assets from Wilcon, we believe, will benefit greatly from those contracted nodes, and that'll drive the growth rate there. As I mentioned, they're relatively new assets with a relatively low amount of existing revenue. So the growth rates, and we're not going to segment report Wilcon on a go-forward basis, but the growth rates there would be pretty high from a gross margin standpoint as we add those nodes that we were talking about. To your second question, I don't know that I would get to that level of specificity around exactly how many nodes and what is exactly is going to happen on that fiber. I think it's better for us to stay in terms of big picture the opportunity there, and the returns in the Southern California market are going to look very similar to the overall component of the 25,000 nodes that we mentioned before.
Amy Yong - Macquarie Capital (USA), Inc.:
Got it. Thank you.
Operator:
Our next question will come from Batya Levi with UBS. Please go ahead.
Batya Levi - UBS Securities LLC:
Great. Thank you. A couple of follow-ups. First on total CapEx for this year, can you just give us an idea how much we should expect? And what percent of that is going to come from small cells? With the ramp-up in the small cell activity, is there any change to your guidance of the amortization of the prepaid revenues that you expected for 2017? And lastly on the macro side, T-Mobile has suggested that they're going to deploy some of the 600 MHz spectrum this year in rural markets. Can you talk about how you're positioned to capture some of that growth?
Daniel K. Schlanger - Crown Castle International Corp.:
Sure. Let me talk about CapEx, it's in the neighborhood of $1 billion for this year, and that has not changed very much or at all since our last discussion on this. And there's not a lot of change in the amortization of prepaid rent other than what we would've included in our guidance to-date, didn't change a whole bunch on that front. So I don't know if there was anything you're asking in specific.
Batya Levi - UBS Securities LLC:
I guess you were expecting down $25 million for this year. Or does that still hold?
Daniel K. Schlanger - Crown Castle International Corp.:
Yes, that is still holding. So it's not down $25 million. It's that the growth is decelerating by $25 million on our prepaid amortization on the towers.
Batya Levi - UBS Securities LLC:
Right.
Daniel K. Schlanger - Crown Castle International Corp.:
So yes, we still anticipate that to be the case. Yeah.
Jay A. Brown - Crown Castle International Corp.:
On your last question around T-Mobile, I would probably encourage you to ask them. I don't want to speak to how they're deploying their network. But leasing that happens or occurs in the back half of this year, obviously, the revenue impact to us is relatively minimal. We would get any benefit to that really as we start to think about 2018 results. At this point, we have pretty good clarity on the leases that we'll turn on over the calendar year of 2017 and the activity that occurs from this point through the back half of the year is less impactful to our 2017 results and more impactful to years beyond 2017.
Batya Levi - UBS Securities LLC:
Okay, maybe just one more on the small cells. As you deploy the 25,000 nodes, by the end of that deployment, what do you think the tenancy per node would be?
Jay A. Brown - Crown Castle International Corp.:
Well, Batya, I appreciate the question. I think it's really helpful to just maybe take a step back and talk about the assets that we're leasing on the small cell site and make the comparison to towers. Really the best analogy to towers is rather than thinking about a node at the tower, think about the fiber-as-a-tower, a tower laid on its side. And we think about and talk about and focus on how many nodes can we get over a given mile of fiber and the revenue and margin associated with those nodes. So in some cases, we'll take a single poll. And inside of the cabinet, we'll put multiple tenants inside of the same cabinet on a given pole, and in some cases, we'll utilize that fiber by using the next pole over or two poles over and add additional tenants there. And as we speak about returns and focus on driving the returns on the business, in the same way that on the tower side we talk about the total number of tenants that we've added across the full vertical height of the tower, we're focused on the horizontal length of the fiber and adding as many tenants across that horizontal link as possible. Whether they go on the same exact pole or on the tower side on the same exact height of the tower is really irrelevant. It's about what's the incremental return in increasing yield on the assets across a given link. And so on the small cell side, when we talk about the 25,000, about 30% of that activity, we believe, is going to be added to existing fiber runs or co-locations, if you will, and then about 70% will be in locations where we don't have existing fiber footprint, have not built small cells to date. And so we'll be out constructing and building additional fiber in order to accommodate those nodes. Those new constructed nodes become like towers. They become newly constructed towers, upon which we have future lease-up potential. And that's what's important about the sizing of this opportunity is we're increasing both the co-location activity. As I pointed out, the co-located nodes are as great as our entire activity on an annual basis currently. But on top of that, we're having the opportunity to build significant future opportunities in top 10 markets, and the business has been proving that out over time that as we build them in top 10 markets, top 20 markets, we see co-location that impacts over time that drive the return on those assets. So we're adding immature assets that have future potential and showing that the immature assets that we've built thus far are increasing in returns as we're seeing co-location opportunity.
Batya Levi - UBS Securities LLC:
Okay. Thank you.
Jay A. Brown - Crown Castle International Corp.:
You bet.
Operator:
We'll take our next question from Robert Gutman with Guggenheim. Please go ahead.
Robert Gutman - Guggenheim Securities LLC:
Yeah, thanks for taking the question. I was just hoping you could review what was driving the increase in network services gross profit in the remainder of the year and your updated guidance?
Daniel K. Schlanger - Crown Castle International Corp.:
Yeah. Generally, what we see is an increase in our market share and our expected market share over time. Going back to what we had seen in 2016, so when we came into 2017, we didn't think that we're going to get to the same level of market share and that was the reason we had taken from 2016 to 2017 our network services margins down a little bit. But as we look out over the course of what we can see over 2017, we think that that's going to go back up and that's driving the incremental gross margins.
Robert Gutman - Guggenheim Securities LLC:
Thank you.
Operator:
And our next question will come from Walter Piecyk with BTIG. Please go ahead.
Walter Piecyk - BTIG LLC:
Thanks. Just first off on churn, I was hoping you could maybe help us dissect it a bit on – I know the 4% was obviously driven by Metro, Leap, Clearwire or whatever. If you were just looking at the small cell business, which obviously has some kind of other core fiber business, what type of churn rate is there? Is it less than 1%? Is it 2%? Can you just give us some sense of the churn on that side of the business?
Jay A. Brown - Crown Castle International Corp.:
Walter, it's way less than 1%.
Walter Piecyk - BTIG LLC:
All right, okay. Even though the revenue includes some of that kind of enterprise fiber type of revenue, right?
Jay A. Brown - Crown Castle International Corp.:
Yes.
Walter Piecyk - BTIG LLC:
Got it. And my next question is more philosophical I guess. You mentioned the '90s and the returns on the tower business and as we all know the tower business evolved where everyone ultimately sold their towers right, sale leaseback and that's what made the business great. There's companies out there like Charter, Comcast others that have fiber that might – may be at some point in the future, look for the same type of transaction if they don't feel like they're getting through their own use of it the same type of return. So if you suspend your disbelief for a moment, and said like if you were looking at Charter's fiber footprint in that type of transaction, how much less would it be worth given that maybe the strand count relative to Wilcon is probably less? So in some ways, you get some right-of-way and you could put some more fiber along those hung strands or whatever conduit they may have. But on the other hand, there's obviously some CapEx investment. So how would that impact you think the valuation if you had an opportunity to buy fiber and then lease it back to that anchor tenant customer and then, obviously, make that available to your wireless customers?
Jay A. Brown - Crown Castle International Corp.:
It's an interesting question. And I think if you make the analogy back to towers, what made towers so interesting is that we were able to analyze, based on where the network was, what we thought the future opportunities from wireless carriers was going to be. And diligence is required in order to figure out whether or not there's an opportunity for co-location. Obviously, towers that were built were built small and didn't have the opportunity to add additional tenants were not interesting to us as we're looking at acquisitions. And I think the same thing would hold on the fiber side. Really have to analyze what the wireless opportunity is and then what's the capacity and is there real value in the asset for that upside. And that's the way we would look at it. Our acquisitions to date, we believe, are proving out by the lease-up. They've got to have, they've got to be dense urban, and they've got to have enough fiber strands to really be valuable for co-location of wireless.
Walter Piecyk - BTIG LLC:
So let's assume that on the negative side, they would require more strands, right. But on the positive side, they would argue that where our fiber is located is much better than what Wilcon or whoever else was out there have because we're just closer to end-user and that's the end game here. Which is more important when you look at the relative value of that fiber footprint versus what we've seen you pay for assets like Wilcon?
Jay A. Brown - Crown Castle International Corp.:
It's not as simple as just sort of A or B trade, right? You've got to really do the diligence and understand what's the component of the asset and then what would be the cost associated with that against the total revenue opportunity and margin opportunity. So it's a matter of what do we think the opportunity is against what's the cost of the asset, just like it would be for anything else that we would look to from an acquisition standpoint. Now I think broadly, moving out of the more theoretical discussion about this, one of the things that's unique about the fiber that we've looked at and we've talked about this ad nauseam, I think, is that not all fiber is created equal. And so the fiber needs to be structured and built in a way that's valuable for wireless. And so, in some cases, some of these businesses – you referenced a few and there are others, sometimes the existing fiber footprint in the way that it's built and where it's located, we don't necessarily think is in the right locations for small cell leasing. So there's also a component to it of what's the use of the fiber and where is it located against the cost and, ultimately, the opportunity from wireless side. But it's not – there's not an easy or simple answer to that question. It requires diligence and a thoughtful consideration of whatever the asset was.
Walter Piecyk - BTIG LLC:
Understood. Let me just try one different version of that question. I'm sorry for the last question, but the cable guys, or those that are kind of bulls on them, have suggested that the incremental cost to take an existing run, whether it's hung or within conduit, is just very cheap, like that newbuilds suck because, you're going to dig ditches and that's very expensive. But they're claiming that Charter's fiber is worth a ton because they haven it already and that pulling more fiber across those lines is not going to cost a lot of money. Does that sound like an accurate statement to you?
Jay A. Brown - Crown Castle International Corp.:
As we look at the fiber footprint that we have, there are locations where we've come back and used existing conduit to pull additional strands for fiber as we see co-locations and the need for that. So it really depends on the nature of the build. If there's existing conduit and space to pull additional strands through that conduit, yes, that's a relatively cheap proposition. If the conduit is full and it's literally the same as building it from scratch, then no, there's not as much leverage or opportunity from that.
Walter Piecyk - BTIG LLC:
Great. Thank you very much.
Jay A. Brown - Crown Castle International Corp.:
You bet.
Operator:
And our next question will come from Brandon Nispel with KeyBanc Capital Markets. Please go ahead, sir.
Brandon Nispel - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc.:
Hey. Thanks for taking the question. I guess, just on last week's announcement, one of your customers wants to build a lot of fiber on its own. How does that change your expectations maybe for leasing fiber in certain markets?
Jay A. Brown - Crown Castle International Corp.:
I think it's indicative of the fact that there's going to be a lot of small cells built in the market. So we certainly aren't anticipating or underwriting the idea that we're going to build them all ourselves. The carriers will likely continue to self-perform, Verizon indicated that in their announcement, and we'll see others doing it. But I think it's indicative of the fact that the opportunity that's in front of us in small cells is going to be really large and significant and a component of that will be sold by others.
Brandon Nispel - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc.:
And then I guess just as a follow-up, you talked about of a lot of activity in dense urban environments. So you guys are going to be active in small cell deployment that could be going towards more – just outside of the dense urban and more for maybe fixed wireless solutions?
Jay A. Brown - Crown Castle International Corp.:
We do believe these solutions are going to be used in the top markets outside of the densest urban areas of those markets. I think it was two calls ago, we laid out our Chicago example, where the original system we had built in Chicago was in the central business district, and then had expanded over time. That's a similar thing that we've seen in almost all of the metro markets where the initial builds may be in the central business district and then expanding from there throughout the cities. And once it's built, we see additional co-location in the initial portions that were built in the central business district, and then as it expands out from there, then we see co-location opportunities as we build and increase the reach of the fiber network across the metro market.
Daniel K. Schlanger - Crown Castle International Corp.:
And in addition to that, no one, we think, is going to move from dense urban areas to more suburban. But also outside of the top 10 or 25 markets to all markets, so we're going to have geographic expansion in two ways. And we would anticipate participating in any of those that we think will generate good returns on the investments that we would make.
Brandon Nispel - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc.:
Thank you.
Operator:
And we will take our next question from Spencer Kurn with New Street Research. Please go ahead.
Spencer H. Kurn - New Street Research LLP (US):
Hey, guys. Thanks for taking the question. I just want to be clear. The $1.2 billion and 10% yield on that for small cells, how does that factor – or how do acquisitions factor into that yield? You mentioned Wilcon was sort of part of your build versus buy strategy. That was $600 million. So I'm just trying to make sure I get the numbers right.
Jay A. Brown - Crown Castle International Corp.:
Sure. These co-locations and new leases that we're talking about from small cell nodes, they're leveraging, in some cases, existing fiber footprint. $1.2 billion would be the benefit of leveraging existing fiber as well as building additional fiber. When we talk about the roughly 70% that are new locations, those are locations where we're building additional fiber, and then 30% in most of those cases, we would not be adding additional fiber. We will be utilizing either the acquisition that we had done, any number of acquisitions or fiber that we've already built.
Spencer H. Kurn - New Street Research LLP (US):
Got it. Thanks. And your leverage increased to 5.8 times this quarter, and you've been around 5.5 times for much of the last couple of years. Is this a sign that rating agencies are getting more comfortable with an investment grade credit rating closer to 6 times for you?
Daniel K. Schlanger - Crown Castle International Corp.:
Well, I can't really speak to what the rating agency is going to do or think necessarily. But what we've done is I do think that our business model and the security of the cash flows, a long-term recurring nature of the cash flow supports a significant amount of leverage on it. And we've seen that our debt costs have not been impacted by any of that movement you might talked about. I do think that our target is to be lower than where we are now, so our target's going to be in the – we're going to get down to five times range over time. And that we will try to manage our balance sheet to maintain the investment grade credit metrics that we talked about. I think that some of that has to do with financing FiberNet and not getting a full benefit from it. So it's not indicative of exactly where we'll be on a run-rate basis. So we think we will be levered over time, but that the business can withstand a fair amount of leverage and still be viewed as a very good credit.
Spencer H. Kurn - New Street Research LLP (US):
Got it. And do you believe you can finance the 25,000 incremental small nodes with existing free cash flow? And if you can't tap debt market because you want to delever, is issuing equity a part of the consideration for you meeting that 25,000 target?
Jay A. Brown - Crown Castle International Corp.:
Yeah. We think we can finance a lot of that internally. But when we look at these investments, what we want to make sure of is that they're going to be investments that clear our overall cost of capital, inclusive of maintaining an adequate amount of equity and adequate amount of debt to have an investment grade rating profile. So whether we fund them internally through cash flow or we fund them through debt or however we want to do that, we do look at the returns and make sure that they would clear our all-in cost of capital. But to answer your question specifically, we think we can finance most of that with internally generated cash flow or incremental debt capacity we generate from incremental EBITDA.
Spencer H. Kurn - New Street Research LLP (US):
Got it. Thanks so much.
Jay A. Brown - Crown Castle International Corp.:
You bet. Maybe one more question.
Operator:
Okay. We'll take our final question from Nick Del Deo with MoffettNathanson. Please go ahead.
Sydney Marks - MoffettNathanson LLC:
Hi. This is Sydney Marks calling in for Nick. He was having some technical difficulties before. So thanks for taking the questions. Back to the 70% anchor build and 30% co-location mix for the pipeline that you've discussed, can you talk about how this mix compares historically? And when you talk about co-location, does that mean on the system that currently has small cells? Or does adding a small cell to fiber acquired from, say, Sunesys count as well?
Jay A. Brown - Crown Castle International Corp.:
On your first question around the 70-30, initially, obviously, over the first couple of years, 100% of them would have been brand-new builds. And we've started to see an increase in co-location at those initial systems that we had built and acquired have started to mature and the activity has increased over time. So the percentage of co-location has increased. But to some degree, the percentages will likely because the opportunity has gotten so big. As I made a point a couple of times on the call, the 30% of co-locations in the neighborhood is in the neighborhood of the total activity of small cell nodes that we're putting on air during calendar year 2017. So if we were to – said another way, if we were to just stop and say that all we were going to do was co-locate nodes on existing fiber, our activity level actually would not come down. The amount of activity we've got in the pipeline would suggest there's significant co-location opportunity. So we're expanding the overall size of the business and, at the same time, seeing a really significant increase in the amount of co-locations. On the second question around what will we consider a co-location, we think about the fiber-as-a-tower. So when we can utilize existing fiber, we think of that as a co-location because we're using an existing asset. So there would be a mix of fiber that we constructed ourselves as well as fiber that we've acquired over time in order to calculate what is a 30% co-location rate.
Sydney Marks - MoffettNathanson LLC:
Okay, great. And if you have time just for a quick follow-up. It looks like the expected CapEx for node on your pipeline seems to be about $50,000 per node. It's quite a bit lower than you've talked about in the past. How much in the delta is driven by the fiber assets that you bought in versus other factors that might be applied?
Jay A. Brown - Crown Castle International Corp.:
I appreciate you picking up on that. That's exactly the point. As co-locations occur, we can utilize the existing investment in the assets, and that, just like the tower model, once we have the asset in the ground, then as additional tenants come along, the additional investment of CapEx comes down dramatically. And you can see that across the whole $1.2 billion of investment that we're talking about and 25,000 nodes become where we're utilizing assets that we've already paid for and expanding the returns on those existing assets.
Sydney Marks - MoffettNathanson LLC:
Great. Well, thank you so much for the color.
Jay A. Brown - Crown Castle International Corp.:
You bet. I appreciate, everyone, joining us this morning. Excited to share the news with you about the first quarter and look forward to talking to you through the rest of the year.
Operator:
This concludes today's call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.
Executives:
Son Nguyen - Vice President and Treasurer Jay Brown - Chief Executive Officer Dan Schlanger - Chief Financial Officer
Analysts:
Simon Flannery - Morgan Stanley David Barden - Bank of America Merrill Lynch Brett Feldman - Goldman Sachs Phil Cusick - JPMorgan Nick Del Deo - MoffettNathanson Ric Prentiss - Raymond James Jonathan Schildkraut - Guggenheim Matthew Niknam - Deutsche Bank Amir Rozwadowski - Barclays Matthew Heinz - Stifel Robert Chatfield - New Street Research Batya Levi - UBS Mike McCormack - Jefferies Walter Piecyk - BTIG Michael Bowen - Pacific Crest
Operator:
Please standby, we are about to begin. Good day. And welcome to the Crown Castle International Fourth Quarter 2016 Earnings Call. Today’s conference is being recorded. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Son Nguyen. Please go ahead, sir.
Son Nguyen:
Thank you, Alicia, and good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us today as we review our fourth quarter 2016 results. With me on the call this morning are Jay Brown, Crown Castle’s Chief Executive Officer; and Dan Schlanger, Crown Castle’s Chief Financial Officer. To aid the discussion, we have posted supplemental materials in the Investors section of our website at crowncastle.com, which we will refer to throughout the call this morning. This conference call will contain forward-looking statements, which are subject to certain risks, uncertainties and assumptions, and actual results may vary materially from those expected. Information about potential factors, which could affect our results is available in the press release and the Risk Factors sections of the company’s SEC filings. Our statements are made as of today January 26, 2017 and we assume no obligation to update any forward-looking statements. In addition, today’s call includes discussions of certain non-GAAP financial measures. Tables reconciling these non-GAAP financial measures are available in the supplemental information package in the Investors section of the company’s website at crowncastle.com. With that, I will turn the call over to Jay.
Jay Brown:
Thanks, Son, and thank you everyone for joining us on the call this morning. As you saw from our earnings release, we finished 2016 on a strong note, delivering another quarter of great financial results. During 2016 we generated AFFO per share growth of 10% and increased our dividend share by 8%. These results exceeded our long-term annual growth target of 6% to 7%, as well as our initial expectations for 2016. We generated this growth by focusing on serving our carrier customers needs as they seek to enhance network quality and capacity to meet the increasing demand for wireless connectivity. Additionally, during the year, we continued executing on our strategy of allocating capital to build and acquire assets that we believe will drive long-term growth in our AFFO and dividend per share. Towards this end we strengthened our leadership position in wireless infrastructure, both by adding towers through the TDC acquisition, as well as by increasing our fiber footprint and small cell capabilities by completing the integration of Sunesys and the acquisition of FiberNet, which closed earlier this month. I would like to thank all of our employees both FiberNet and Crown Castle, who are working hard to ensure that the integration process goes well. Our early view of the operating performance of FiberNet is consistent with our underwriting assumptions for the acquisition. Turning back to our results as Dan will talk about in more detail. We increased our 2017 outlook to reflect higher expectations for our base business, as well as the inclusion of FiberNet. Looking out beyond 2017, we believe a steady and healthy leasing environment driven by the continued significant growth in mobile data positions us to deliver long-term growth. Mobile data traffic in 2017 is expected to be roughly twice what it was consumed just two years ago in 2015. And by 2020 mobile data traffic is expected to be six time 2015’s level, with the growth driven by a combination of factors including the adoption of data intensive applications such as video streaming, an increasing number of connected devices and potential new applications such as fixed wireless broadband. In order to capitalize on this anticipated growth in mobile data, we believe that wireless carriers will continue to enhance and upgrade their network through cell site densification and deployment of additional spectrum for years to come. As the leader in shared wireless infrastructure in the U.S., we believe we are well-positioned to capitalize on the positive trends that we see in the industry, as the shared infrastructure model continues to represent the most efficient and cost-effective way for our carrier customers to deploy wireless infrastructure. With our recently completed acquisition of FiberNet, our portfolio of wireless infrastructure across the top metro U.S. market now consist of approximately 40,000 towers and 26,500 route miles of fiber supporting small cells. Towers remain the core element of wireless network and the first option in network deployment providing both coverage and capacity. Consistent with this we anticipate a long runway of growth for our tower business driven by technology upgrade, deployment of additional spectrum, and cell site densification. Importantly, there remains a substantial amount of spectrum yet to be deployed by our carrier customer across our wireless infrastructure, including AWS-3, the build out of FirstNet and spectrum from the current broadcast incentive auction. Additionally, our portfolio provides a substantial opportunity to drive organic growth and meaningful incremental returns from additional tenant leasing across those towers. Building on the foundation of a great tower business, we are investing in our small cell business, which we believe could represent an opportunity similar in size and returns as towers. Today our fiber footprint of 26,500 route miles provides us with significant growth potential in top metro market such as Boston, Baltimore, DC, Chicago, Los Angeles, New York, Philadelphia and San Diego to name a few. In addition, FiberNet substantially strengthens our footprint in Miami and Houston, both markets where we are seeing significant small cell demand. The route uniqueness, density and capacity of our fiber footprint combined with our extensive real estate, network engineering and node construction capabilities, provide us with meaningful opportunities to generate attractive long-term return. Our returns on small cell increased like towers as a result of the shared economic model and our ability to leverage our initial fiber investment for multiple tenants. Today we are building small cell systems with initial yields of 6% to 7% that increased to low-double digits with the second tenant and higher yields with the third and fourth tenants. Given the growth in small cell, as our carrier customers identified their network and deploy spectrum closer to their customer, the lease up of our fiber assets is occurring faster than we experienced on our towers at a similar stage of maturity. With faster lease-up and higher initial yield from towers we have good reason to be optimistic about the future of our small cell investments. As the only shared wireless infrastructure provider with expertise that scale across both towers and small cells, we believe we are uniquely equipped to help wireless carriers deploy their networks. This enabled us to drive organic growth and significant incremental returns on our existing assets, while deploying capital towards attractive opportunities that we believe will extend and enhance our long-term growth in AFFO and dividends per share. Our strategy, focus and disciplined approach related to execution and capital allocation have driven significant growth and value creation, delivering over a decade of consecutive AFFO per share growth. Looking ahead, I am excited by the opportunity and prospects for Crown Castle. I believe we are well-positioned to create shareholder value with the unique combination of meaningful growth and high quality predictable cash flow. I also believe that our current dividend yield approximately 4.3% combined with our targeted annual growth of 6% to 7% and dividend per share represents a very compelling total return. As we start 2017, we are excited about the leasing activity we are seeing from customers, we are focus on increasing the returns on our portfolio and we remained disciplined on looking for additional opportunities to drive long-term growth and dividend per share. And with that, I will turn the call over to Dan.
Dan Schlanger:
Thanks, Jay, and good morning, everyone. Capped off by solid fourth quarter results, 2016 mark another terrific year for Crown Castle in several fronts. From a results perspective, we delivered 10% growth in AFFO per share, reflecting the attractive demand backdrop for our leading portfolio of wireless infrastructure and solid execution by our team. With respect to our portfolio, we’ve strengthen our asset base with the acquisition of TDC and FiberNet, the integration of Sunesys and our continued investment in both towers and small cells. And we did all of this while increasing our financial flexibility as we increased the average maturity of our debt, lowered our average interest rate and achieved investment grade credit rating, which reflect the quality and stability of our business and cash flows. Turning first to full year 2016 results as shown on slide three, site rental revenues grew approximately 7% or $215 million as compared to full year 2015, including 6% growth in organic contribution to site rental revenues. Our full year 2016 results for site rental gross margin, adjusted EBITDA and AFFO per share increased by 8%, 5% and 10%, respectively, as compared to full year 2015 results. Moving on to investment activities for full year 2016, we invested $557 million in acquisitions and $874 million in capital expenditures, including $90 million for the sustaining capital expenditures. As Jay discussed, our discretionary investments were allocated towards opportunities in both our towers and small cell businesses that we believe will generate compelling returns and enhanced the long-term growth in our dividends per share. Additionally, during 2016 we returned significant capital to our shareholders through our quarterly common stock dividend totaling $1.2 billion in the aggregate or $3.605 per share representing growth of 8% as compared to full year 2015. We continue to believe by providing a portion of shareholder returns in the form of dividend aligns well with our business, which is characterized by high quality long-term recurring cash flows. Turning now to slide four, we are increasing the full year 2017 outlook at the midpoint for site rental revenues, site rental gross margin, adjusted EBITDA and AFFO per share. Importantly, our improved outlook for 2017 reflects both an increase in our expected operating results exclusive of FiberNet, as well as the expected contribution from FiberNet, which closed earlier this month. At the midpoint and compared to the previously provided full year 2017 outlook, we have raised site rental revenues by $154 million, site rental gross margin by $115 million and adjusted EBITDA by $95 million. These improvements result in AFFO per share being $0.02 higher than on our prior outlook. Of the increases, FiberNet is expected to contribute approximately $150 million despite rental revenues approximately $105 million for site rental gross margin. Additionally, general and administrative expenses related to FiberNet are expected to be approximately $20 million. Ignoring the contribution from FiberNet on an apples-to-apples basis we have increased our current outlook for site rental revenues, site rental gross margin, adjusted EBITDA and AFFO as compared to our previously provided outlook for 2017. Our higher expectations for 2017 reflect the continued strength of our business and the healthy leasing environment we are seeing. Turning to slide five, I want to walk through the approximately $206 million of expected growth in AFFO from 2016 and 2017 at the midpoint of our updated outlook. Moving from left to right, our expectation for organic contribution of site rental revenue growth remains unchanged relative to the previously provided 2017 outlook at approximately $155 million. This expected growth in revenues is partially offset by an approximately $20 million increase in operating G&A expenses, which represents a less than 2% increase as compared to 2016. This is particularly noteworthy since we expect to continue to build additional assets and increase our capabilities in small cells throughout the year. Moving to the right, our expectation for services gross margin contribution of $245 million during 2017 is unchanged from our previous outlook and is a reduction of $25 million as compared to 2016. Our assumption for network services is that we return to more historical levels of capturing from the elevated levels we experienced in 2016. Continuing to the right, the impact associated with the conversion of the mandatory preferred stock remains unchanged from our previously provided outlook at $44 million. This represents the amount of annual preferred dividends we paid in 2016 as we are no longer obligated to pay in 2017 as a result of the conversion that took place on November of 2016. And finally, 2017 AFFO growth is expected to be positively impacted by approximately $55 million on a net basis from other items. Relative to our previously provided 2017 outlook, the $55 million impact incorporates the benefits of FiberNet, partially offset by higher interest expense from the debt acquisition financing of FiberNet and from higher expected LIBOR rates during 2017. With both an increase in the expected operating results in the base business and the contribution from FiberNet, we are increasing full year 2017 outlook for AFFO per share from $5.01 to $5.03 representing approximately 6% growth when compared to full year 2016. As Jay discussed, we remain excited about the long-term opportunity in front of Crown Castle as we have turned the page on another successful year for the company in 2016. We believe our portfolio of towers and fiber-based small cell systems combined with industry-leading expertise in delivering shared wireless infrastructure at scale presents us with the tremendous opportunity to both meet our customer carriers -- our carrier customers’ needs as they continue to build out their wireless networks and to create long-term value for our shareholders. With that, Alicia, I’d like to open the call to questions.
Operator:
Thank you, sir. [Operator Instructions] We’ll go first to Simon Flannery of Morgan Stanley.
Simon Flannery:
Thanks very much. Good morning. Jay, I think, you touched on the opportunities from FirstNet AWS-3, WCS. Can you just give us a little bit more color about where we are in those processes and if FirstNet is awarded say in March, how does that flows through ’17, ’18, ’19, et cetera, so your perspective on that. I know some of the carriers are sort of been waiting for some of this bands to get into the devices and to the iPhone before they move to aggressively. So any more color on that and how that impact leasing first half versus second half will be great? Thanks.
Jay Brown:
Yeah. Thanks for the question, Simon. We have not embedded any of that in our forward guidance for ’17. As we talked about things like FirstNet and the spectrum auction, those would effect and help our long-term forecast. And one other things that has been true about our business for a long period of time is, anytime there is new spectrum that’s deployed across the network, it results an additional leasing for us. And so we look at it and believe that’s -- that give credence to our view if there is a long runway of growth in the business as that additional spectrum begins to be deploy.
Simon Flannery:
And on the sort of timing first half, second half of leasing?
Jay Brown:
Yeah. The year is backend loaded as a typically year is in the tower business. Typically in most years it’s about 40% in the first half, 60% in the second half and this year looks very similar to a typical year.
Simon Flannery:
And are the carriers, are they each kind of continue at the same pace that they were at like some of them being pretty activity but other ones being pretty quite?
Jay Brown:
We are seeing activity across all of the carriers and it’s levels that are very similar to what we saw during 2016 is our estimation, so in total as we talk about we think our revenue growth will be in the neighborhood of about $90 million on the tower side and about $70 million from small cells and we think the year is going to stack up in terms of revenue growth very similar to what we saw in 2016.
Simon Flannery:
Great. Many thanks.
Operator:
We’ll go next to David Barden of Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
David Barden:
Hey, guys. Thanks for taking the question. I guess, first one, just looking at the slight increase in the midpoint churn expectations for ’17. I was wondering if you can talk a little about the source of that, is it just timing or is it some people, I guess, would fear that, maybe you are saying some sort of abandonment from some of the higher cost leases? And I guess, second if I could, I guess, Jay, I know you are trying to be, you kind of alternative to talk about things, but on the AT&T on their call talked very specifically about rolling out AWS-3 maybe back to AWS-1 working with FirstNet to layer on new RAD centers in their 700 megahertz D block. Sprint has been talking about CapEx increases this year as their permanent process for small cells is starting kind of flow-through. The T-Mobile has been talking about trying to get aggressive on deploying 600 megahertz as soon as they win auctions and the auction seems to be ending sooner than expected. So, I mean, it does feel like there's a lot more moving parts this year than last year, and I guess, that’s certainly because you have a services component, you’ve been hearing that AT&T’s pre-positioning, their turf vendors to get ready for this big deal. I mean, can you give us some sense of of what things on the ground you are actually seeing that would validate getting maybe a little more excited about the back half of the year? Thanks.
Jay Brown:
Okay. Dave, I will take the first one on churn, basically what we did is pulled up a bottom in the range. There is no real difference in what we see going forward from what we had seen before, there is a tightening up a range a bit from what we've seen. And I don't think there's anything you can read through to what the carrier activity is, specifically just more understanding of what’s going on and more conversations and thoughts around tightening the range a bit.
Dan Schlanger:
Yeah. Dave, on your second question, it’s obviously very early in the year and on the landscape of conversations that are going on among the carriers and what they said publicly, those are all positive milestones that you are speaking about. And as we go through the course of the year we may need to update where we are today. But at this point, we see the year stacking up pretty similar to the way that we saw in 2016. And one other thing I would just draw everyone’s attention to is the nature of our business. We have a lot of predictability around the cash flows and so as we sit here, as we go into any given year, most of the leases that we will sign on that will impact our financial results. We have got those basically cycled and know where they are by this point in the year and so the opportunity to outperform in any given year or underperform is relatively low and the activities that you spoke about, those are likely to be impactful and positive as we start to think about our 2018 results and beyond. So we will certainly update everyone as we go through the course of the year and as some of those start to materialized and start to impact leasing, I think, those are more likely to impact our run rate activity as we go into 2018 and they are necessarily to impact our financial results for ’17.
David Barden:
Great. Thanks, guys.
Operator:
We’ll go next to Brett Feldman of Goldman Sachs.
Brett Feldman:
Thanks for taking the questions. It’s kind of the big picture one, we look at the way the sector sort of changing before our eyes to see US Telecom cable sector, more consolidation obviously continue growth in data traffic? And I am wondering if it’s cause you to have some big picture conversations around what type of company you suppose to be position for this. You have obviously made a decision that being in the small cell business is a nice compliment to what you are doing in towers and I think we are starting to see some benefits there? But as you spend more time operating fiber networks and engaging with customers, are you thinking that perhaps there is a broader infrastructure model that you guys can be pursuing and if you do what is the ultimate way you think about whether this types of deals would make sense for you, is it all about growing the dividend or is there other considerations that weigh heavily as you evaluate your M&A funnel and really the strategic direction of the company?
Jay Brown:
Yeah. Brett, that’s a great -- that’s a good question. I appreciate you are asking it. From a broad perspective, our business is a shared infrastructure model and that shared model has been through a number of economic downturn, consolidation, technology shift and it has through all of those cycles and movements delivered really strong returns and growth, because it’s the most effective and cost efficient way to deploy wireless network. And as we consider sort of our strategic focus, we believe we are best aligned by continuing we may -- to keep that our core focus as a business. So as we watch the landscape and we do, we are trying to position ourselves as that shared infrastructure provider. And where we found the most benefit has been historically towers and we believe small cells are very similar to that. There may be opportunities for both us to use our towers and our real estate assets, as well as the fiber underlying small cells. We may find opportunities for additional revenue growth and we are happy to consider those and to the extent they can increase the return and the yield we will pursue them, but the primary focus is today around wireless for both towers and small cells. And all of the conversations that you reference are encouraging to us, because they indicate the comments that I was making around the expectation of continued growth and data -- wireless data and we think those trend lines are very supportive of our underlying focus on towers and small cells.
Brett Feldman:
Great. Thanks for that color.
Operator:
We’ll go next to Phil Cusick of JPMorgan.
Phil Cusick:
Guys, thanks. Following up on Brett’s question, can you dig in to what’s going on in the Sunesys and the new business in terms of enterprise sales? Sunesys had a salesforce when you bought it. We have talked about them selling not only that but your legacy fiber? What's happening there? Is there any momentum and how do you think about that changing in 2017?
Jay Brown:
Yeah. We have found as we have talked about before, we have found some opportunity to use the fiber that we have required for some enterprise services in places where we have a dense urban fiber footprint. Our focus and analysis around what fiber is interesting to us is driven by the opportunities that we see on the small cell side, but to the extent that we can use the pipe in a shared infrastructure model in a way that drive additional returns and yields from fiber services in certain cases, we think that make sense. Obviously, there is a tremendous amount of expertise that we received in the Sunesys acquisition up in the Northeast in several markets. The same thing is true, as I mentioned, from FiberNet in the South Florida market, as well as in Houston. And so we believe there will be opportunities there, but the main strategic focus is around small cells and around the edges that expertise enables us to increase the yield on the asset.
Phil Cusick:
Has there been a low momentum in doing that or any sort of increased amount of investment there or is it just moving on slowly?
Jay Brown:
It’s very limited capital investment on that front and the momentum I would describe as being pretty fairly consistent with what their historical practice has been around being able to use that fiber for those fiber services.
Phil Cusick:
Okay. Thanks, guys.
Jay Brown:
You bet.
Operator:
We’ll go next to Nick Del Deo of MoffettNathanson.
Nick Del Deo:
Thanks. So thanks for taking my question. I want to ask about your underwriting for the FiberNet deal. Yeah, so, when you have done large tower transactions in the past, you have generally indicated they are predicated on securing something like one tower or, sorry, one tenant over 10 years to make the math work or something those lines. With effect of FiberNet what is the business pace require in both for the business you assumed, as well as for the small cell volumes you are going to layer on top?
Jay Brown:
Yeah. Nick thanks for the question. Typically, we are assuming on the small cell side about one tenant over a 10-year period of time is roughly our underwriting assumption in this acquisitions of fiber. We obviously believe there could be a lot greater upside than that to these fiber assets, but that’s what we are roughly underwriting in both the FiberNet acquisition, as well as the Sunesys acquisition.
Nick Del Deo:
Okay.
Dan Schlanger:
And Nick, just before you can get on, we haven’t seen faster than that lease-up, that’s what Jay mentioned earlier, so we think of those assumptions we can probably outdo, but for now the underwriting has been based on that small cell demand at that pace.
Nick Del Deo:
Okay. For the existing business you assume, assume some sort of modest growth baked in?
Jay Brown:
We basically assume that business is roughly flat. There are some growth assumptions in some cases depending on the location and the market, but the returns are being driven by small cell.
Nick Del Deo:
Okay. Great. And then, just sort of in a similar vein, these deals are partially about capital avoidance. In the past you have talked about investing something like hundred grand net per node that you rollout, how far that fall in markets where we have acquired this big fiber inventories in advance?
Jay Brown:
It fall significantly, because the fiber is very similar to a tower, so the analogy when we look at small cell business, fibers is the tower and in the tower business we would typically describe a RAD center, that’s the level on the tower where the tenant would install their equipment. In the small cell, in small cell, an installation of a small cell node is like a RAD center on the tower. So we are leveraging the assets to fiber and then adding small cell nodes across that fiber to drive the return. And to the extent that the fiber is acquired through one of these acquisitions or previously built for another acquisition, we were adding additional tenant to that fiber. And I talked in my comments about the incremental return if we are building it from scratch, we are in the neighborhood of an initial investment of about 6% to 7%, which is about where we acquired Sunesys and FiberNet, and then we are adding to that additional tenants, which moves the returns with one tenant into the low double-digit on a yield basis and then the third and the fourth tenants take returns well beyond that.
Nick Del Deo:
Okay. Great. And then maybe one quick one and then I will hop off. Also network services revenue jumped a lot in the quarter, any commentary behind that or if it’s a leading indicator for the segment?
Dan Schlanger:
It’s really, how we get there as we have equipment that we buy on behalf of our customers and we get a small margin on that, that’s a services you see in the small cell business. It’s just a reflection of the activity we had in the quarter, which we had talked about before is, there is a high level activity in small cells in the fourth quarter and that’s where you saw that services coming from.
Jay Brown:
Nick, sometimes we also see as the carriers come back and optimize their networks, their existing small cell networks, they will pay us to perform a service where we analyze re-optimizing those network and ultimately that looks like to your question about co-location as they go through that optimization process, they end up coming back and adding additional nodes across the fiber or adjusting the networks like slightly which results in us getting some services fee from that.
Nick Del Deo:
Okay. Great. Thanks so much guys.
Operator:
We’ll go next to Ric Prentiss of Raymond James.
Ric Prentiss:
Thanks. Good morning, guys.
Jay Brown:
Hi, Ric.
Ric Prentiss:
Hey, a couple of questions, one on FirstNet, what would cause the FirstNet equipment to trigger a new RAD center and be like a co-location versus being able maybe to slip in to an existing RAD center and come in as an amendment activity. In other words, I think, back in the day when Sprint LightSquared were thinking of doing stuff, it was seen as being more amendment activity, but just wondering, how are you viewing FirstNet’s opportunity when it does start materializing?
Jay Brown:
Yeah. Ric, I think, at this point, probably, too early to be able to answer that question. We really need to know ultimately who is going to be the provider and the distributor of the service and then we need to understand the network that they want to build. So it’s probably too early to really be able to comment on that. Both of them are good for us, obviously, there is a meaningful, if they are deploying brand new spectrum in that kind of scale nationwide and it’s an amendment that would be great for us, if it’s a new installation that would be well -- that would be good as well.
Ric Prentiss:
Right. But there is nothing contractually, they says, they have to go to a new RAD center, it’s a spectrum that they don’t own either?
Jay Brown:
No. We -- whenever there is a transaction like this or a new deployment, we will sit down with them and understand what their needs are and we will try to structure something that make the both -- the most interest for both parties. They have been times you brought up one with LightSquared years ago, whether it’s a co-planning arrangement, where they want to go on same level on the tower, there have been other occasions that I could point to where they want the separate installation and the separate RAD center on the tower. So we would have to just understand the lot more and then work with them and what make the most sense.
Ric Prentiss:
Okay. And then just given all the convergence and consolidation that others have mentioned on the call, can you update us just on what your Sprint, T-Mobile overlapping exposure is and remaining life of leases and maybe also just what percent of revenue AT&T represent at year-end ’16?
Dan Schlanger:
Yeah. So each Sprint, T-Mobile around 6% on overlapping sites and we have about five to six years left on both of those contracts. So what we think is that if two of them were to get together the implication would be that they want to compete on network quality and to do so, they would have to increase their investment in their networks, not try to minimize the number of towers they would be on. So as a historically been the case, we see the consolidation doesn't necessarily equate to them coming off every tower they possible could, because they are really trying to invest in the network. AT&T I think is 28% of revenue for 2016. You can see that in our supplement.
Ric Prentiss:
Okay. Great. One final quick one, since you close FiberNet earlier this month, a large portion that was funded by equity raise back in November, but I assume you use some debt. Can you let us know what kind of debt placement you did to handle the remaining portion of the cash for FiberNet?
Dan Schlanger:
Right now it’s on our revolver and we have not -- we not said how exactly we would fund that overall in the future, but it is in right now it’s just part on our revolver.
Ric Prentiss:
Thanks so much. Looks like it can be exciting ’17 and ’18. Thanks guys.
Dan Schlanger:
Thanks, Ric.
Operator:
We’ll go next to Jonathan Schildkraut of Guggenheim.
Jonathan Schildkraut:
Hi. Great. Thanks for taking the questions, fitting me in here. Two if I may, the first is, yet another follow-up on the fiber for small cell business, you guys have done a bunch of acquisitions here and the business has a bunch of different revenue streams, is it fair to assume that sort of all of the acquired revenue streams flow into the small cell business. And then sort of the derivative question. Is there anything that we should know about that legacy business characteristic wise, churn, contract, things like that, which would distinguish it from sort of the business that you are organically building on top of that asset? And then my second question and I know you guys have addressed this in one form or another in the past, but considering the amount of work that is potentially in the pipeline from U.S. carriers whether it is FirstNet, AWS-3, WCS or other sort of spectrum rollouts. You guys have been very open sort of the MLA process in the past and again this one seems like would be fairly complex relative to some of the stuff we are seeing historically, is there any desire conversations thoughts about new MLAs? Thanks.
Jay Brown:
Sure. On the first question I wouldn’t distinguish the revenue or cash flows on the businesses from our small cell business. Any of the revenue that’s you are referring to specifically to your question that is included in the small cell segment, so those revenues and cash flows fall through that. We are excited about that business. We believe it is a good business. We believe it’s recurring and do expect on some level we can grow it in some way as I spoke to in my earlier comments. On the MLA process and I am assuming that you're referring to what we have done in the past in some occasion where carriers have been willing to commit to certain level of activity and then effectively paying for that ahead of their anticipated work. Jonathan, those agreements worked out really well for us financially. We were pleased with the outcome. I believe our carrier customers were pleased with that, because it gave them greater certainty and expedited the process of getting on towers. So we would certainly entertain those agreements again and if we were to do them then they would have to make financial sense for us and accomplish the same goal for the carriers. So we would be open to them. I view those, frankly, in hindsight having done a couple of them over with multiple carriers over a lot of different years. At the end of the day, I think, financially they worked out well for us and they accomplished the perfect for carriers well looking for in terms of expediting activity. So those two things aligned again. They will probably make sense. But we may just do it as we do on a normal basis of just taking leases as they come and obviously that -- if that works well for both parties as well. So lot to see how it develops but we leave it open as an opportunity.
Jonathan Schildkraut:
Great. Thanks, Jay. Appreciate it.
Operator:
We’ll go next to Matthew Niknam of Deutsche Bank.
Matthew Niknam:
Hey, guys. Thank you for taking the question. One on -- just on fiber and strategy, if you can maybe talk about your appetite for further expanding on the fiber and small cell front, just having closed FiberNet and given where you are on leverage in a rising rate environment? And then just one housekeeping item on tower site rental expenses. They ticked about $5 million sequentially. They’ve usually been down seasonally in 4Q, so maybe if you can just shed some more light on what went on there? Thanks.
Jay Brown:
Mathew on your first question, we are -- as we’ve talked about lots of times, when we look at investments and whether that's capital invest -- capital expenditures that we would do on a quarterly basis and report a larger acquisition, the filter through which we run those is whether or not they increased long-term dividends per share. And so if we have the opportunity to invest in additional fiber, which we’re certainly looking for and seeking out opportunities to do that, they're based on our views that there's going to be significant small cells in dense urban markets around the U.S. and that our investment in those needs to be aligned with our overall cost of capital. So you raised the point that in a rising rate environment as we underwrote the most recent asset we certainly didn't need current financing rates to look at what we thought the long-term returns were we used forward curve in terms of interest rates to account for that. And then we've got to get comfortable that over the long-term we can get it return for the weighted average cost of capital depending on the size that we may need to use equity at points which was done in the past. But we will consider that as a part of the overall return and make sure that it's compelling and ultimately the measure that is whether or not it increases dividends per share and that dividends per share obviously accounts for the effect of, however, we finance the asset we've got to drive incremental returns from what we would consider absent doing any of those actions.
Dan Schlanger:
And as Jay pointed out we have thought about and baked into our outlook and increasing interest rate environment to the extent that we would have to look in an acquisition we would do so again and just try to take a view on what that would look like. The second thing I would point out on the equity if you look at what we did for FiberNet is, we had assumed cost to capital in our modeling and therefore we went out and sold the equity where we could clear that cost to capital back in fourth quarter even before it closed, because we want to be very true to that increasing dividend per share to make sure we lock in that cost of capital and returns that we're looking at. With respect to tower site rental expenses going up, there are a few things that happened in the fourth quarter that, I think, the important part is that we did not include in our 2017 guidance and outlook. So we have not made them continue through to 2017. So you can take away from that those things that we don't expect to incur going forward. So there were its just small things here and there that added up in the quarter that we don't include in the ‘17 guidance.
Matthew Niknam:
Okay. And if I could just follow-up on the first question, are you seeing any demand from your carrier customers in markets beyond the top 10? I know I think in the past you've talked about sort of supporting carrier needs for densification and some of the larger markets but are you beginning to see that sort of spread beyond these larger markets to-date?
Jay Brown:
We are seeing it spread beyond the top 10 markets. There are a number of markets inside of the top 50. Well outside of the top 10 where we're seeing small cell activity. If you look at the majority of the activity, as well as the majority of the capital that we are spending, we're still on the top, probably 10 to 15 markets of the U.S. and -- but I -- we do expect that will continue to grow well beyond just the top 10 markets in United States.
Dan Schlanger:
And like we pointed out in our last quarter in the case study around Chicago, it’s not only expanding from the top 10 and beyond, but also from the central business district in the top 10 to more the suburban area. We see the expansion both ways of the demand for small cells.
Matthew Niknam:
Got it. Thank you.
Operator:
We’ll go next to Amir Rozwadowski of Barclays.
Amir Rozwadowski:
Thanks very much. Just wanted to follow-up on some of the prior questions and what seems to be a rapidly evolving end-market structure. A lot of the combinations that seem to be discussed in the market seem to drive a lot of discussions around the initial deployment of 5G and whether or not it actually can provide the type of services promised to the meaningful level. If you look at the opportunities over the next few years, are you factoring in a meaningful opportunity based on these initial deployments or should we think about the deployment of current fellow spectrum and densification that's in the hands of the carriers at the moment as the primary opportunity for the foreseeable future.
Jay Brown:
Yeah. It would be the letter and not the former. As we think about our business, we tend to look at our forecast and the activity, and we are really not assuming all of the potential upsides that could come, which has been the great thing about both the tower business and now we believe about the small cell business is, you really don't -- you don’t have to believe in upside usage case on mobile data in order to justify the investments that we are making or to deliver significant returns for the shareholder and that's a great place to be. We’ll let the upside to take care of itself. We obviously think the assets have a tremendous amount of growth and upside. It's interesting and the nature of the question really drives some of the point, if we were on a conference call 15 years ago talking about towers, the discussion was around the transition from 2G to 2.5G and the opportunity and the returns that would drive and now we are talking about the opportunity of 5G, and throughout those periods and all of the successful technology shift, we have seen additional revenues and additional tendency across the assets and we believe that's the beauty of the shared infrastructure model, both on towers that we will continue to see activity on that front and then densification occurs and data traffic increases we are going to see the benefit of that small cells as well.
Amir Rozwadowski:
Thanks very much. And one follow-up, if I may, the debate on the sustainability of escalators seems to continue. Now this is something as you folks have expressed your views on to sometimes so I won't deliver the point, but I would like to ask, what is the sort of potential middle ground that could take place between yourselves and the carriers? Is it reengaging in some of the MLAs as you had mentioned, would love any color if you can provide on that front?
Jay Brown:
Yeah. Amir, we haven’t seen any change in the pricing environment. And as we talked about the model -- business model and propositions of the carriers is based on the value proposition. The underlying cost of the real estate has escalated far faster than the escalators under their lease agreement, and far faster than the pricing increases that have occurred on the asset. And we've been able to take upon ourselves that higher escalating costs and share that among multiple operators, which has limited the amount of growth in their costs that they would've otherwise occurred to them if there wasn't a shared infrastructure provider. So I don't see any change in the pricing environment, and frankly, the value proposition I think continues to hold as we’re able to sustain a higher level of costs and be able to share that across multiple operators in order to hold their costs down.
Amir Rozwadowski:
That's very helpful. Thanks very much for the intellectual color.
Operator:
We’ll go next to Matthew Heinz of Stifel.
Matthew Heinz:
Thanks. Good morning. With respect to FiberNet and the footprint, I’m just wondering what sort of visibility or funnel you had on those markets as you're underwriting the deal in terms of carrier demand on your small cell sites? And I guess, whether that pipeline has changed at all since the deal was announced, maybe the breakdown of anchor notes versus co-location and when should we expect to see incremental site revenue showing up on the fiber?
Dan Schlanger:
Matthew, I’ll take on the second part of those questions, I'll probably beg off on that level of specificity, but on the first part of the conversation, we're having significant conversations with all of the carriers and have a pretty good understanding we believe around how they’re thinking about the deployment of small cells in macro sites across the country and our FiberNet acquisition was based in part on the insight that we had from working with customers. So we absolutely had insight, and as I mentioned, there is significant opportunity and activity going on in the South Florida markets that we gain fiber footprint and -- as well as Houston.
Matthew Heinz:
Okay. Thanks. And as a follow-up to that, as I think about your shared infrastructure focus, I guess, that is inclusive of a fairly broad range of potential asset types and as we consider the opportunity around commercial IoT kind of enabling that with edge computing notes. Is that something you would like to capture in the long-term kind of beyond just the consumer mobility opportunity and what is your level of openness to alternative asset types beyond the tower and fiber focus you have today?
Jay Brown:
Yeah. Our focus is in providing the infrastructure. As we look at the opportunity and I think you raised a good one around commercial Internet of Things. Those are likely to grow across wireless networks for which we would expect to be a significant provider of space to deploy those wireless network. But we don't view quarter our strategy or ourselves owning wireless -- owning the wireless networks themselves or interfacing directly with the consumer and whether that consumer comes in the form of an individual or a commercial Internet of Things. I do think, as I mentioned in one of my earlier answers, I do think there are opportunities for our tower assets in real estate to be used in greater ways in the more upside cases around what will happen with IoT over time and we're certainly focused on what those opportunities might be and could provide additional upside to our base case assumptions.
Matthew Heinz:
Okay. Thanks, Jay. I appreciate it.
Jay Brown:
Yeah.
Operator:
We'll go next to Spencer Kurn of New Street Research.
Robert Chatfield:
Hi. This is Robert Chatfield for Spencer. Thanks for taking the question. I want to ask given recent comments about potential tie ups between U.S. wireless carriers and cable companies, how do you see those potential outcomes or tie ups affecting both the existing lease up or the lease up of existing small cell deployments, as well as organic demand for new small cell deployments taken -- given consideration for the fiber plant that the cable companies might have?
Jay Brown:
Yeah. I don't want to speculate specifically on any of the rumors that are in the market this morning. But I think I would take you back, Robert, to the shared economic model, obviously, for a long period of time some portion of the carrier wireless networks have been self-performed, whether that was towers or the ownership and build of their own fiber. But we found significant opportunity for our shared economic model and regardless of openly who owns the wireless networks and who is deploying wireless networks, we believe the shared economic model is the most cost effective and efficient way for carriers to deploy wireless networks and we would expect regardless of what consolidations occur and ultimately who the owners of those networks are that have shared solution will be the most cost effective and will be a part of the solution that they would use.
Dan Schlanger:
And Robert, just to add something, Jay said earlier to an answer to another question, which is the implication of all of this activity is mobile demand is going to grow significantly, because people are trying to get at that mobile demand as efficiently as possible and that may not be the only reason for those types of consolidations, but it is one of the reasons. And that gives us yet another data point to confirm our belief that serving as the infrastructure provider to meet the mobile demand is a great place to be. So we think that all of these things do have potentially a positive implication for our overall business model and something I think would play out well for us.
Robert Chatfield:
Thanks. That's helpful. Sorry I wasn't trying to catch you in comments about the rumors, maybe I will ask the question a little bit differently. As you look at the cable plant versus the fiber deployments that you might see in some of your small cell networks, what would be the differences between those existing in ground plant versus yours, again, that question might get to what I was trying to get at?
Jay Brown:
Well, I would probably answer it honestly the same way. I think I understood that's where you are driving with the question. If you look at the wireless operators today, many of them have significant fiber footprints and we are still seeing significant activity in small cells, because the route uniqueness of our fiber, the density of that fiber, the capacity of the fiber and the shared economic model that we offer is still the most cost effective way for those networks to be deployed. It's also true that today carriers self perform some of those activities. So to the extent that there was a new owner of wireless networks, whether that was as an acquirer or as a building out a new network, I think, you would see a similar pattern where you have use of the shared economic model, as well as self perform. And ultimately I think this is sort of to the benefit of the tower industry, but that shared economic model because of its lower cost, the carriers are looking for opportunities to drive that costs in the network and we are the provider for that. And so, I don't think any equation on that front would change as a result of the cable operator moving into the wireless space. I think, as Dan said, it’s supportive of the long-term view that the world is going wireless and there is significant mobile data the demand they had.
Robert Chatfield:
Okay. Thanks.
Operator:
We will go next to Batya Levi of UBS.
Batya Levi:
Great. Thank you. Just couple of follow-ups, first just going back to the churn question, if you look at churn aside from the acquisition-related churn coming from PCS, Clearwire, Leap, it looks like there's an uptick this year. Can you talk maybe what's driving that? And going back to the small cell, I believe that you had guided a similar CapEx level for small cell deployment this year versus ‘16, given all the activity in the market, do you see potentially an opportunity to accelerate that spend in the near-term? Thank you.
Jay Brown:
Yeah. To speak on the churn, there really isn't an uptick. It's really that normal churn of the non-consolidation non-renewals is still in the 1% range, which is relatively consistent with where it has been. To the extent there may be a small uptick, it's really not a big four, it wouldn't be in a big four customers it would be in other customers. But we don't think that's it's a material amount at all nor do we think it's an indication of what's going on in the market. So we see the non-consolidation churn to be relatively consistent with historical.
Dan Schlanger:
Our underwrite on CapEx for 2017 for small cells as you stated is similar to what we saw in 2016. Typically, the amount of timeline between when we sign up a customer and when they go on air that cycle is the 12 months to 15 months cycle in order to get small cell nodes to be built at a minimum sometimes it’s longer than that can be an 18 months to 24 months cycles. So the uptick as we would talk about activity both that we’re talking about or talking with our customers about or that they publicly start to talk about. The CapEx spend for that and ultimately the resulting revenue would be beyond in all likelihood beyond the calendar year 2017 both in terms of material capital spend, as well as then the ongoing revenue. We -- I think absent other factors I think we are biased to believe that when I made the comment earlier in the call that ultimately we believe small cells could be of the similar scale as towers. We certainly anticipate that there's going to be significant investment and opportunity in the years ahead and the scale of that would be much larger than what we are currently seeing. So our bias is that it is upward movement, but I think you are unlikely to see a meaningful increase to our activity in 2017.
Batya Levi:
Great. That's helpful. Just one more follow-up on the macro side, would fiber -- would public safety network about to be planned and deployed? And maybe some of the national carriers not having a full coverage in the rule footprint, do you see an opportunity to build macro towers in more rural locations right now?
Jay Brown:
There may be some opportunity for that, frankly, I would say that's not really where our focus is. We are focused right now on the major U.S. metro markets and believe most of the capital spend, as well as the return opportunity is going to exist in those markets. So there maybe opportunities to do that and we may participate in that. I think we are more likely to be focused on investment in small cells.
Batya Levi:
Okay. Great. Thank you.
Operator:
We’ll go next to Mike McCormack of Jefferies.
Mike McCormack:
Hi, guys. Thanks. Maybe Jay just a quick comment on what you're seeing out there as far as the small cell deployments go with respect to time to deploy and cost on your side to deploy as well, where that sort of pacing and how that looks? And then, secondly, maybe just a comment regarding the broadcast auction, it clearly seems like there has been fairly tepid demand there. Just wondering as you look out over your longer term outlook, how that might change your view given what appears to be again sort of a low demand for that spectrum?
Jay Brown:
Yeah. On the first question time to deploying cost, we’ve seen the cost stay relatively similar to what it’s been over the last couple of years in terms of the cost to deploy this system. Time to deploy is about the same as what it’s been, maybe a little more extended than the last couple of years. I think it’s supportive of our notion that there are high barriers to entry in that business and it takes a long time to build new systems. So there is a big advantage of owning fiber in the market and being able to go out and co-locate tenants onto that existing fiber footprint. And the time and cost deploy is really supportive of that view of the barriers to entry and the opportunity ahead of us for the assets that we own today. On the broadcast auction side, I won't speak to how much the spectrum band goes for, ultimately how it gets used. But what I would point to is going back and looking at the business over a very long period of time. It's been terrific for the tower industry as spectrum is deployed and gets into the hands that operator who has capital to deploy that and use for it. And so, I wouldn't at all take it as a negative. I think ultimately the spectrum that's in the market today under auction, as well as additional spectrum that the SEC has been pretty clear about, over the long period of time looking to find additional spectrum to put in the hands of wireless operators. I think that's a positive trend for the tower industry and the real tailwind for future growth.
Mike McCormack:
Great. Thanks, Jay.
Operator:
We’ll go next to Walter Piecyk of BTIG.
Walter Piecyk:
Thanks. Can you talk about the cadence of new leasing activity at small cells? I kind of just do the basic math it looks like it kind of yo-yos back and forth from quarter-to-quarter. Towers seem to be a little bit more regular adding like $22 million or $23 million per quarter, where small cells, I think, it was less than $5 million, it was like $9 million last quarter. So is that going to smooth itself out at some point or how do we think about small cells going forward?
Jay Brown:
Yeah. I think as you described the yo-yo, it's probably more related to as these turn on as we’re building systems…
Walter Piecyk:
Sure.
Jay Brown:
It’s about 75% of the activity is related to as building new networks and about 25% is related to co-locating on existing systems. So you’re looking at the timing of construction starts and finishes roughly there. Over time, I think, the other thing that will happen is if we’re right about the scaling of the opportunity, it will get so big that those movements aren’t noticeable and you're comparing those two business, one is about $400 million in revenue and the other is about $3 billion and so the tower business tends to look little more smooth just given the relative size of it. So I wouldn’t you to anything that you could -- you frankly could predict or indicative of the business. I would point to as we've tried to do over the call today really focus on a year-over-year, so look at a 12-month period of time compared to the previous 12 months and I think that will give you the best indication of how we're doing.
Dan Schlanger:
And on that front as you know in our outlook that we think that small cell business is going to grow more in ‘17 than it didn't in ‘16 by about $15 million. So the year-over-year…
Walter Piecyk:
So you’re sticking to the $15 million, because the $15 million now is off at least for me a lower number, because the fourth quarter as far as the new leasing activity shows that your new leasing activity for the year is like $28 million, so it's $15 million off of that number as far as that increase for ‘17?
Dan Schlanger:
No. I would go back to kind of year-over-year, we did about $55 million roughly of new leasing activities in the small cell segment in ‘16 and we think that's up about $15 million in 2017 to about $70 million.
Walter Piecyk:
Okay. Just another question on the small cell boxes, I know I come back this every quarter, but I can't help myself. Again if you look at those boxes where you can put two or three tenants in them, is your anticipation that one operator is going to take up that second slot and a lot of those locations or is it more likely that a second operator will take the second I don't know lot is the right term but I think you know what I am talking about when you crack those things open you've got two tenants that you can stick in that -- in those things that are up on the lamppost.
Jay Brown:
I think, Walter, you were going to have some of both. You are going to have some of those boxes where we have multiple tenants in them. We have -- I think we have showcased the number of systems including there in New York walking around showing folks or in some cases we have three tenants in some of those boxes.
Walter Piecyk:
Yeah.
Jay Brown:
On the bottom part.
Walter Piecyk:
Yeah.
Dan Schlanger:
Yeah. And in other places we will go next pullover and then…
Walter Piecyk:
Sure.
Dan Schlanger:
… add the tenant, so I think we have a mix of both, ultimately the way we price it comes back to return and the aesthetic of the community are going to drive ultimately. We put two or three on the same light pole…
Walter Piecyk:
Yeah.
Dan Schlanger:
… that's not really the economic reality, the economic reality goes to the fibers is the really expensive asset in the mix and it's across that fiber that we are driving additional return by adding tenants. So whether it goes on the same pole over the next pole over, we don't really care, we are focused on the return across the capital investment that we make.
Walter Piecyk:
I get it. And then just one last one on that same type of question. Take Verizon as an example. But this could be the case for any carrier. They have existing AWS spectrum that they're putting in those small cells today those small radios. When they are ready to do AWS-3, is it contemplated that AWS-3 spectrum will also be in the same radio as the existing AWS or is that going to have to take a second slot? I am not saying for, obviously, they go back, they are not going to bother to replace, they will just take the second slot. But let's say we're out into 2018 where small cell business is ramping. Is the expectation that they can pack all of that AWS spectrum, the existing stuff and the AWS-3 into one radio, so it's only taking one of those three slots in that box that's on the lamppost?
Jay Brown:
I don't want to speak specifically for Verizon. So let answer that question…
Walter Piecyk:
For any one, exactly.
Jay Brown:
Yeah. Lot more generically for all of the carriers. Small cell have amendment activity to them in the same way the towers do and that amendment activity as to the answer I just gave you looks in a similar way, so in some cases the amendment will be they will come back with an additional spectrum band or additional technology and they will go next pullover, because they put so much equipment in the first box that they are going next pullover. Sometimes the answer is they are trying to optimizing the network differently, so they will go next pullover and then at other times they will go in the existing box and take up an additional slot in that box and that looks to us like any other new tenant that would go on there. So and we would…
Walter Piecyk:
Those are three examples, but that was not the example. I asked about. I said in 2018, let’s say it’s a new operator into a new market and they have all the spectrum, so they're not adding anything. This is brand new to them, so they go into there, can they stack all of their AWS spectrum into just one of those slots or they’re going to need two slots for existing AWS, as well as AWS-3. I understand everything you said I get that and you're going to get more money from those, but since we are still early stages in the small cell, I'm just interested in how much spectrum that can pack into one of those slots that’s on that lamppost.
Jay Brown:
The answer is theoretically technically possible to stack it all on one. So it’s possible that they could do that in the same way that it's possible on towers. I think that's a less likely outcome. I think you are more likely to see them add additional equipment either the amendment or a new lease for us. But it's theoretically possible that they could combine the spectrum bands and do it with a single piece of equipment, but that's not then what we've seen so far.
Walter Piecyk:
Got it. Thank you very much.
Operator:
We’ll go next…
Jay Brown:
I think we have time for maybe one more question.
Operator:
We’ll go next to Michael Bowen of Pacific Crest.
Michael Bowen:
All right. Thank you very much for squeezing me in. A couple if I may. Sorry if I missed this, but I wanted to make sure I understood with regard to the reduction in the organic growth projection in ‘17, if I'm correct, I think, went from 4.9% down to about 4.8%. Can you help us with a little detail there of exactly what is baked into that? And then another question is we are hearing more and more about Project Loon over Google. Is that more as you see them, is that a friend or a foe, is that something you could potentially seek benefit or is that something that’s going to take business possibly away. I mean, how are you thinking about that? Thanks.
Dan Schlanger:
Yeah. Mike, on the first one on organic growth, we kept organic growth consistent in our outlook from before until now, so it's not a reduction in growth. There's a higher base on which we provided it. So it looks like, I think, you did the math and it maybe a little lower from a percentage basis, but we did not change our assumptions on the activity levels on the growth that we expect in 2017.
Jay Brown:
Yeah. On your second question, I think, the carriers and operators will over time continue to look for opportunities to drive down the cost in their network and so there maybe a number of opportunities whether it's Wi-Fi offloading or other projects that the carriers come up with to offload some portion of the capacity off of their networks and that's good for them in terms of reducing the costs and good for us as consumers in terms of improving the coverage and capacity of the networks. We don't see anything on the front -- on that front or otherwise at the moment or at on the horizon that is damaging to our overall business.
Michael Bowen:
Okay. And one last one if I could, with -- you mentioned the yields on a per customer basis for small cell. Can you compare and contrast those with tower? I think you said 6% to 7% for the first customer on small cell and then increasing from there. Is it similar or can you help us with that?
Jay Brown:
Yeah. On the tower side where build projects are being done in the market or where we're seeing builds and for which we're not investing capital because we don't find the returns to be attractive. There are some folks out building towers that initial yields that are in the 2% to 3% range we don't frankly find those that interesting given the other opportunities that we have in front of us. As we look at maybe the larger acquisitions that have been done more recently, those treated in the 4.5% to 5% initial yield on the tower side, so the small cell returns are little higher at initial yields than what we've seen in towers from an acquisition standpoint and meaningfully higher relative to newbuilds. That probably has to do in part though with the complication and difficulty of constructing those new tower builds are not being done in major metro markets in the U.S. So I think both the risk with the opportunity and the difficulty of completion is factored into those returns that it may not be fair really, Michael, to compare those as apples-to-apples.
Michael Bowen:
Yeah. That's helpful. Do you have any historic yields off of towers from past years…
Jay Brown:
We are typically….
Michael Bowen:
I’m assuming much higher?
Jay Brown:
Yeah. We’re typically building towers in that 4% to 5% yield range maybe a little higher than that at some point. So small cells initial yields are higher than historical yields initially were for towers.
Michael Bowen:
Okay. Great. Thank you.
Jay Brown:
You bet. Well, thanks, everyone for joining us this morning. We'll wrap up the call and look forward to talking to you next quarter. Thanks so much.
Operator:
That does conclude our conference for today. We thank you for your participation.
Executives:
Son Nguyen - Vice President, Corporate Finance Jay Brown - Chief Executive Officer Dan Schlanger - Chief Financial Officer
Analysts:
Simon Flannery - Morgan Stanley David Barden - Bank of America Brett Feldman - Goldman Sachs Phil Cusick - JPMorgan Ric Prentiss - Raymond James Matthew Niknam - Deutsche Bank Amir Rozwadowski - Barclays Colby Synesael - Cowen & Company Matthew Heinz - Stifel Nick Del Deo - MoffettNathanson Michael Rollins - Citi Research Batya Levi - UBS Walter Piecyk - BTIG Michael Bowen - Pacific Crest Michael Hodel - Morningstar
Operator:
Good day, everyone and welcome to the Crown Castle Third Quarter 2016 Earnings Conference Call. Today’s call is being recorded. And at this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Son Nguyen. Please go ahead.
Son Nguyen:
Thank you, Vicki and good morning everyone. Thank you for joining us today as we review our third quarter 2016 results. With me on the call this morning are Jay Brown, Crown Castle’s Chief Executive Officer and Dan Schlanger, Crown Castle’s Chief Financial Officer. To aid the discussion, we have posted supplemental materials in the Investors section of our website at crowncastle.com which we will refer to throughout the call this morning. This conference call will contain forward-looking statements which are subject to certain risks, uncertainties and assumptions and actual results may vary materially from those expected. Information about potential factors which could affect our results is available in the press release and the Risk Factors sections of the company’s SEC filings. Our statements are made as of today October 21, 2016 and we assume no obligation to update any forward-looking statements. In addition, today’s call includes discussions of certain non-GAAP financial measures. Tables reconciling these non-GAAP financial measures are available in the supplemental information package in the Investors section of the company’s website at crowncastle.com. With that, I will turn the call over to Jay.
Jay Brown:
Thanks, Son and good morning, everyone. Appreciate you joining the call this morning. As you saw from our earnings release yesterday, we delivered another great quarter of financial results that exceeded our expectations, as the leasing environment continues at a healthy pace across both towers and small cells allowing us to once again increase our outlook for full year 2016. We also increased our dividend by 7%, reflecting our expectations of continued growth in 2017 and consistent with our goal of increasing dividend 6% to 7% per year. As we have discussed further on this call, we believe the healthy leasing environment will continue into 2017. Specifically, our 2017 outlook assumes higher growth of approximately $15 million from small cells and similar growth from towers as compared to 2016. The growth we see in our business is fundamentally driven by the strong growth in demand for mobile data, which we believe will continue given the continued adoption of data intensive applications such as video streaming, the increasing number of devices that are being connected with the growing importance of the Internet of Things, and the potential for new applications to be deployed in the years ahead. That will rely heavily on mobile networks such as fixed wireless broadband, autonomous cars and augmented reality, just to name a few. With this expected growth and demand for mobile data, we believe the wireless carriers will invest steadily in their networks, including leasing our infrastructure in the coming years much like they have historically to serve the growing and unmet demand for wireless connectivity. As we have seen over the last two decades, our approximately 40,000 towers are the first option in network deployment given their efficiency and cost effectiveness. More recently, the carriers have looked to small cells to add to their capacity in their networks. Therefore, over the last few years, we have begun to invest more significantly in this area of our business. This investment has been based on three fundamental characteristics that we believe makes small cells very similar to that of towers. First, the shared economic model of small cells drives down our carrier’s cost of deployment. Second, our margins and returns increase over time as the carriers lease more tenant nodes across our fiber. And third, the total addressable market is very sizable. To illustrate these points, I would like to walk you through our experience in Chicago using Slide 4. In 2013, we had approximately 300 tenant nodes on air on approximately 100 miles of fiber or approximately 3 tenant nodes per mile of fiber. Of these 300 nodes, approximately 90% are focused in the downtown area. Fast forward to today, we have approximately 1,100 nodes on air and under construction on 250 miles of fiber, with the tenant nodes density at approximately 5 tenant nodes per mile. This results in a yield on our investment in Chicago of about 10%. Importantly, more than half of these nodes are situated outside of the central business district, which demonstrates both the expansion beyond the central business district and at the same time, the densification in the central business district that has occurred over that time. The expansion beyond the central business district into the surrounding Chicago suburbs is an example of why we believe the total addressable market for small cells will be so significant. Chicago is representative of what we are seeing throughout major U.S. metro markets, which is why we remain so bullish on the opportunities we see in small cells. We believe this growth opportunity from small cells, combined with the growth from our towers, uniquely positions us to capitalize on the evolution of wireless networks through the extension of our shared infrastructure model that continues to efficiently and cost effectively serve carrier needs. The strength of our business model, the underlying strong fundamentals driving wireless investments and the uniqueness of our assets gives us confidence in our ability to continue to deliver 6% to 7% growth in dividend per share annually. We believe this expected growth, combined with our current dividend yield of approximately 4%, provides a very attractive total return opportunity. And with that, I will turn the call over to Dan to go through a few more details around our financial results.
Dan Schlanger:
Thanks, Jay and good morning, everyone. As Jay mentioned, we have a lot of good things to discuss on the call today. We exceeded our third quarter guidance range and raised our full year 2016 outlook, reflecting the continuation of the strong operating performance our team has driven throughout the year and the healthy leasing environment we continued to see. At the midpoint, our updated full year 2016 outlook for AFFO per share of $4.73 is up 10% compared to 2015. This growth includes approximately 200 basis points of benefit from acquisitions. We also provided our outlook for full year 2017 results, which at the midpoint caused our AFFO per share of $5.01, up 6% over our updated 2016 outlook. Additionally, we increased our dividend by 7% from an annualized $3.54 per share to an annualized $3.80 per share demonstrating our strong belief in the growth in the cash flows we will be able to generate from our high-quality asset portfolio. Turning to Slide 5, our third quarter results for site rental revenues, site rental gross margins, adjusted EBITDA and AFFO each exceeded the high end of our previously provided third quarter 2016 outlook, reflecting the continued strength of the overall operating environment. For AFFO, the quarter benefited from $7 million in lower than expected sustaining capital expenditures. To be clear, this benefit was due to timing and we expect that capital will now be spent during the fourth quarter. Adjusting for the timing benefit and lower sustaining capital expenditures, we still would have exceeded the high end of our third quarter outlook for AFFO and AFFO per share. Moving on to investment activities, during the quarter, we invested approximately $220 million in capital expenditures, consisting of $19 million of sustaining capital expenditures and approximately $200 million for discretionary investment opportunities. Included in the discretionary investments is approximately $17 million of land purchases we completed to further strengthen our control of the ground beneath our towers, which aligns with our central focus of securing long-term high-quality cash flows. The remaining discretionary investments were focused on opportunities that expand our unique portfolio of shared wireless infrastructure assets and position us to capture more future growth opportunities as our carrier customers continue to invest in their wireless networks. We believe these net investments will generate compelling long-term returns and enhanced our ability to deliver long-term growth and dividends per share. As an example of the compelling returns we generate, I wanted to highlight the investments we have made in our small cell business. To-date, we have invested $2.6 billion on a net basis in small cells. These investments have resulted in that business now generating over $400 million per year of site rental revenues and a recurring yield of 6% to 7%. In broad terms, this yield is comprised of three major investments. First, in 2012, we invested $1 billion from NextG, which provided us with an industry leading platform and significant first mover’s advantage that we see the benefits of on a daily basis. This investment was made at an initial yield of 3%. Second, in 2015, we invested about $1 billion to purchase Sunesys, which provided us with an attractive dense dark metro fiber footprint in top markets, where significant small cell deployments are occurring. This investment was made under the shield of 6% to 7%. Lastly, we have made $600 million of net investments outside of these two acquisitions, which give us an expanding asset base on which we deploy additional small cells. These investments are generating a yield of low double-digits, demonstrating the higher margins and returns we are driving through co-location. As Jay mentioned, these results reinforce our view that small cells exhibit similar shared economics as towers and provide us with attractive growth opportunities in the future. Moving on to financing activities, during the quarter, we once again accessed the investment grade bond market to proactively manage our balance sheet, issuing $700 million of unsecured notes to refinance debt maturities coming due in 2017 and borrowings under our credit facilities. With this successful refinancing, our balance sheet remains in great shape, with no significant maturities between now and 2020, ample liquidity under our credit facilities and approximately 80% fixed rate debt. Additionally during the quarter, we returned significant capital to our shareholders through our quarterly common stock dividend of $299 million in the aggregate or $0.885 per share. Turning to our 2017 outlook on Slide 7, focusing on the midpoint and going from left to right, our expectations for growth in site rental revenues of approximately $100 million includes approximately $155 million from organic contribution to site rental revenues, which is comprised of the following. Anticipated new leasing activity is approximately $160 million, which assumes approximately $15 million of higher growth in small cells and a level of growth in towers consistent with the healthy levels we are seeing in 2016. All of this is offset by approximately $25 million less growth from the amortization of deferred credits which we commonly refer to as prepaid rent as compared to the growth we saw in 2016. Importantly, we expect to collect a similar level of prepaid rent in 2017 as we are collecting in 2016. In addition to new leasing activity, our organic growth is also supported by annual contracted tenant escalators, which we expect will contribute approximately $80 million to $85 million in growth during 2017. Growth from new leasing activity and tenant escalations is expected to be offset by tenant non-renewals of approximately $85 million to arrive at organic growth of approximately $155 million or 5% growth year-over-year. The change in straight line, which is an adjustment for GAAP purposes related to our fixed rate escalators and contributions from acquisitions made during 2016 bridge the remaining amounts will arrive at expected site rental revenue growth of around $100 million. Turning to Slide 8, I want to spend a minute walking you through the approximately $145 million expected growth in AFFO at the midpoint of our outlook. Picking up where we left of on the prior slide, with organic contribution to site rental revenues, the $155 million of growth is partially offset by a $35 million increase in normal ongoing operating and G&A expenses as well as a $10 million reduction in services gross margin from 2016 to 2017. Additionally, with the conversion of our mandatory preferred stock, AFFO increases by $44 million, representing the amount of annual preferred dividends we paid in 2016 that were no longer obligated to pay in 2017. And finally, 2017 AFFO growth is expected to be negatively impacted by approximately $10 million on a net basis of other items including cash interest expense, sustaining capital expenditures and the contribution from acquisitions that have occurred in 2016. The growth of $145 million at the midpoint in AFFO represents an approximately – an approximate 9% increase of 2016. On a per share basis, AFFO growth is expected to be 6% including about 100 basis point headwind from the preferreds that will convert into approximately 11.6 million additional common shares on November 1 of this year. Based on our expectations for 2017 and our out-performance in 2016 compared to our initial outlook, we have increased our quarterly dividend by 7% per share, further adding to our track record of growing our dividend. As Jay mentioned, we remain confident in our portfolio of shared wireless infrastructure assets uniquely positions Crown Castle to meet our carrier customers’ needs as they continue to build out and enhance their wireless networks to meet the rapid growth and demand for wireless connectivity. These fundamentals give us confidence in our ability to increase our AFFO and dividends per share by 6% to 7% per year over the coming years, which when combined with our current dividend and yield of approximately 4%, we believe provides a very attractive total return profile. With that Vicki, I would like to open up the call to questions.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] We will take the first question today from Simon Flannery with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.
Simon Flannery:
Great. Thanks very much. Good morning. Thanks for the color on the small cells in Chicago. If staying on that theme, could you just talk about the latest thoughts on the zoning and the municipalities, there is lot of articles about the opposition of some towns to certain carrier deployments and to the various providers including yourselves, so where is that coming out, what’s Washington doing about it. And then talk a little bit more about Chicago in terms of the lease-up from the carriers, how are you doing in terms of getting additional tenants on, obviously the low density is improving, is that mostly from the initial tenant or are you also getting additional tenants on? Thanks.
Jay Brown:
Sure Simon. On the first question, obviously one of the great benefits of our business, both on the towers side and the small cells side is that there are very high barriers to entry in the business. And so we are accustomed to working through the various local municipalities and what the zoning regulation denote new municipalities are. And over time, we have worked with Washington to put in what we believe is some smart federal legislation that creates a path that gets to a timely answer from the local municipalities and communities. And we have continued to see the impact of conversations with local municipalities as we deploy small cells. And I don’t think that’s going to come to an end anytime soon. But I would also tell you that, that really demonstrates some of the capabilities and expertise that we have in the business that we are used to dealing with that and can get our carriers deployed on timeframes that are reasonable. And so it’s not in anyway inhibiting our ability to deploy these networks on a reasonable timeframe and – but it certainly gives us an opportunity to set ourselves apart from some of the competition in the market. On your second question in Chicago, it’s a combination of both lease-up on the existing fiber as well as continuing to deploy additional fiber as we have expanded our fiber footprint around Chicago. As you can see from that slide in the picture, we have increased the number of nodes per mile on that first 100 miles of fiber that we had in the central business district of Chicago. So a lot of that would be lease-up, if you will, a co-location on that base of fiber. And then at the same time, we built out a number of miles, about 150 miles, beyond that central business district out into the suburbs. And while we were building that initially from one carrier, we have seen additional co-location beyond that sort of initial build. And it’s reflective – the Chicago market is reflective of really what’s happening across the whole country. We are seeing co-location which we have talked about in the neighborhood of about three quarters of the activity that we are doing is related to expanding the fiber footprint and building new systems for carriers and then about a quarter of our activity, roughly is coming from the co-location of tenants on to existing fiber plant. And the Chicago example shows kind of that same thing as you look at one individual market and how that works.
Simon Flannery:
Great. Thanks for the color.
Operator:
We will now go to David Barden with Bank of America.
David Barden:
Hi guys. Thanks for taking the questions. I guess two numbers questions if I could, just the first one maybe Daniel or Jay, the escalators for the base case guidance for midpoint 17 look I guess on my math to be about 2.6%, which is down actually from the escalators that were part of the equation as we look into ‘16 from ’15, so if you can kind of talk about why the escalators are moving around like that, that would be helpful. And then the second part was just on the straight line amortization piece of it, I was wondering if you could kind of maybe elaborate a little bit more on kind of as new prepaid rents are getting paid, I think you said it would be flat in ‘17 versus ‘16, how are you amortizing those, so we could kind of model those in. And then second, where are they coming from, is it mostly the prepaid rents for the small cell builds or is it macro or is it some mix, if you could kind of give us some color there would be helpful? Thanks.
Jay Brown:
Yes. Thanks David. On the escalators, I think the best way to think about that one is, about 85% of our contracts are fixed rate escalators and 3% and the other 15% are on the CPI range. So the CPI being as low as it is right now, the average is that 2.6% or 2.7% that we are seeing and what we had in our guidance for 2017. On what you call straight line amortization, the second question you asked, I think you are mixing concepts a little bit. What you had asked was really on the prepaid rent, which is different than straight line amortization. So on the prepaid rent amortization, what it is, is as we get reimbursed for capital upfront, we do amortize that over the life of the contract. So as you think about it, we have about 6 years or 7 years remaining on the contract. That’s probably not a bad way to model it going forward is over that amortization line. And where that’s coming from is both towers and small cells, but the reason that it’s reducing and that $25 million is lower growth in 2017 than it has been in 2015 is that as the tower business has the similar level of activity from year-over-year, the growth in prepaid rent that we are collecting is slowing down to be very similar to where it has been year-over-year, which is what we think is happening in 2017. And therefore, the growth in amortization on the towers is slowing down, whereas on small cells as we are building more and more systems, we are still growing the amount of the prepaid rent we are collecting. And therefore, the prepaid amortization based on the activity that we are seeing in small cells.
David Barden:
Okay, you are right. I confused straight line amortization and amortization was what I was interested, so thank you for that. And so just to clarify on the escalators again, so if the 85% and 3% are fixed and the 15% is the CPI, how did the CPI change so dramatically from your expectation for this year versus last year?
Jay Brown:
Yes, I think, David, if you look at it over time and this is where the supplement, I think is really helpful where we played out in the supplement over many years, what we expect the escalation on those contracts to be, you will recall a number of years ago where we went down the path with some of the carriers and made prepaid rent and that was often in the form of the increased steps in their contracts as they paid for the right to amend the sites rather than doing it one at a time. And so those were embedded in the escalations on those contracts. As you will recall for virtually all of 2016, we have been back on a – as they did amendments, they would pay for each individual amendment. And so we saw our last step during calendar year 2016. So that accounts for most of the movement downward. But in terms of looking at what it will look like kind of over time, I think the best place to go is look at the supplement as we have modeled on your contractual steps into the future so that you can get your model right.
David Barden:
Thanks, guys.
Operator:
Brett Feldman with Goldman Sachs is next.
Brett Feldman:
Thanks for taking the question. And I guess I will go back to Chicago. If I look at the slide, it certainly is supportive of the bullish view you had on the addressable market for small cells. But if you could flip it around and you can look at it from someone who is purely interested in the tower space and say it confirms worst fears that small cells might be cannibalizing towers, because it would seem like from that map that some of those new areas would be traditionally tower areas. And so I was hoping you could just give us a little bit more color as to the capacity and coverage problems that these small cell deployments outside the urban core were solving and why was it that towers weren’t being used in those circumstances?
Jay Brown:
Sure, Brett. Appreciate the question. Small cells are a means by which the carriers can make the macro sites most efficient and effective in terms of utilizing the spectrum on that particular site. As I mentioned in my comments and we can see this in the Chicago deployment or we could take it to kind of any U.S. major market where we have deployed small cells and show you a similar trend from the carriers, they are using the macro sites, because they are cost effective and efficient. So, if you could solve those challenges with macro sites, they would end up co-locating equipment on another macro site. But most of the time, these small cells are being put in and around and very close to existing macro sites in order to reuse the spectrum and create additional capacity. And what happens when they do that is it frees up the tower to provide a bit of an umbrella, if you can think of it that way, an umbrella of coverage over an area and enables the user to have a more ubiquitous and uniform experience with their mobile device. From a practical standpoint, the way all of this as users often see this is, we will have 4 or 5 bars on our phones and yet we can’t connect and experience a reasonable data session. The reason for that is that you are receiving or seeing the spectrum and signal at your handset device, but there is not enough capacity in the spectrum to provide that. So by putting a small cell in the general vicinity of where there is an existing macro site, you are offloading some of that capacity without changing the coverage or the necessity of the macro site to deliver the data experience to the consumer. And so they are using small cells, in essence, underneath these macro sites which both improves the consumer experience as well as frees up the macro site to be as efficient and as effective as it was originally designed. If you were to go – if we were to go into that this example and blow it up to anything greater detail than what we are showing on the slide there, what you would see is macro sites right in the very areas that we are putting in small cells, but we don’t believe based on the conversations we have had with the carriers, their continued desire to both lease towers as we have talked about on this call at the same pace that they are doing throughout 2016 and that continuing into ‘17, we don’t see any slowdown in the activity around towers nor do we see them using small cells as a replacement. It’s really just improving the effectiveness of those macro sites that they have.
Brett Feldman:
Did you have towers in that area, just out of curiosity?
Jay Brown:
We do.
Brett Feldman:
And do you think that they chose to do this instead of using those towers or is the point was the tower you have aren’t solving the problem that we have right here?
Jay Brown:
The challenge is that the data usage in the general vicinity of the tower is so significant that the geography that’s intended to be covered by the tower can’t be covered by that macro site alone. So, they go in and offload some of the traffic on to the small cell, which then makes that macro site effective for which it was designed to cover a broader geography.
Brett Feldman:
Okay, got it. Thank you for taking the questions.
Jay Brown:
You bet.
Operator:
We will go to Phil Cusick with JPMorgan.
Phil Cusick:
Hi, guys. Thanks. Two. One, first on the Chicago example, if I can, can you talk about what the backhaul situation is there, what’s the mix of owned versus leased fiber? And what do you see in the cost trends for that?
Jay Brown:
Yes, we own all of the fiber that was showing there in the Chicago market.
Phil Cusick:
And that’s all you have constructed. That’s not IRUs or anything like that?
Jay Brown:
That’s correct. We have constructed the fiber or in some cases, we have acquired portions of it over time through the acquisitions that Dan referenced in his comments, but we own it all.
Phil Cusick:
Understood. And can you talk to us some more about the expansion of small cell revenue expectations in ‘17? We have heard different types of expectations of this business accelerating, the potential of putting more capital into it, how do you think about that and is there potential to put incremental amounts of capital into that each year going forward?
Jay Brown:
Phil, as we talk about and look at this business, first of all, let me answer the simple question and then I will talk about kind of our macro view. The simple answer to your question is we are expecting more activity around small cells in 2017 than what we are seeing in 2016 and that’s the driver of the $15 million of additional growth, increased growth in ‘17 as compared to ‘16. That’s the result that we have expanded the asset base. We are seeing co-location and continuing to invest in the areas where we are expanding that fiber footprint. As stepping back from kind of the specifics of the year-over-year change, we have a view that over the next decade, there is going to be a significant expansion of small cells utilized by all of the carriers to improve the data experience that consumers enjoy. And as we look across the business that we have today and the $3 billion of capital that we have invested, we think we have barely scratched the surface on what the opportunity is there. In the near-term, given the amount of time that it takes to build these projects in the neighborhood of 12 to 18 months, we have a lot of visibility around what we think that revenue growth is which we are providing in our 2017 outlook. But beyond that, we think there is potential for additional upside as both we invest and expand these systems and at the same time co-locate additional tenant nodes on the systems that have already been built. And the other thing I would say about this is this entire strategy really comes back to sort of the core driver of everything that we think around the business. We are investing capital with the goal of increasing our dividend over the long-term. And so the opportunities that we see in small cells and the returns that we are talking about, we are excited about them because of their potential to continue to drive the dividend over the long period of time and potentially even increase the growth rate of that dividend growth over a long period of time. And everything that we are seeing as we talked about the business as a whole and you look at the sequential change or the year-over-year change in small cells, we are seeing growth in incremental margins and we are seeing expansion of the revenue. That certainly tells the story. And as we go all the way down to a single market area, we see that thesis that we have had for several years really playing out as we expected and we are pretty excited about what it could mean for us over the long-term.
Phil Cusick:
Understood. Thanks, Jay.
Operator:
We will go to Ric Prentiss with Raymond James.
Ric Prentiss:
Thanks. Good morning, guys.
Jay Brown:
Good morning.
Ric Prentiss:
A couple of questions still on the prepaid rent side, can you break out for us a little bit as far as on the prepaid rent received that I think you said ‘17 would be similar to ‘16, how much of that is going to small cell prepayment received versus the towers side?
Jay Brown:
Ric, we are not going to give specific guidance to what we see on prepaid rent received. But you can see in our supplement that we break out, it’s the prepaid rent received and the amortization of prepaid rent between small cells and towers. And you can annualize the nine months numbers that are in there. They are about similar right now. We will see some continued growth in small cells and like we are saying, we will see less growth in towers. So the small cells will get a little get bigger than the towers over 2017.
Ric Prentiss:
Okay. And then mentioning that you are going to have $25 million less growth in the amortization in ‘17 versus ‘16, how much was the growth in the amortization in ‘16 versus ‘15 in the current midpoint?
Jay Brown:
Yes. Again, if you just look at the supplement and take the nine months numbers and annualize them and compare them to ‘15, you get about $50 million of additional growth from prepaid rent amortization ‘16 over ‘15.
Ric Prentiss:
Okay. And then some questions about – like Brett’s question about cannibalization, can you update us a little bit on just, if the carrier wanted to get off of a macro tower, if their contract was up and they wanted to move to a small cell system or move to somebody that was able to get a new tower built nearby, what’s the estimate that you guys have as far as what that switching cost would be, how much would it cost them to actually physically get off the tower, I know it all varies by how much equipment, but is there a good kind of rule of thumb average that people should think about?
Jay Brown:
Well, just coming off of the tower is one cause. That would be in the neighborhood of probably $35,000 to $40,000 to take the equipment down. The real issue is the geographic coverage of small cells as compared to a tower. A tower is going to cover anywhere between an 8.5 mile of geography around a given macro site. And a small cell is going to cover a couple of hundred feet. And so if you were trying to replicate the small cells, the coverage of towers, the quantity of those would probably be well in excess of 15, 20, 25, maybe 30-plus small cells in order to get any more close to the capacity of a macro – a single macro site. And the economics of a small cell are about a third of that tower. So from a cost standpoint, it just doesn’t ever make sense to utilize small cells as a replacement for macro sites, which is why we don’t see that happening. But where they do, do it is, as I mentioned in the comments Ric, earlier to Brett, where they are doing it is in places where it makes that macro site more efficient. So I just don’t – we are not concerned at all that small cells are going to cannibalize macro sites and the demand for macro sites because of the cost element of that. And if you look at what is the main driver of that cost, it’s the cost to construct and build fiber which makes up the vast majority of the cost of small cell nodes and that cost is not going to come down over time. That’s the construction cost. It’s likely an escalating cost over time rather than a cost that would decline say with the reduction of the cost of technology. So I think the economics, if you look at it on a comparison basis, would suggest macro sites are definitely the preferable approach for the carriers when it will solve the problem.
Ric Prentiss:
It makes sense. And one quick one on escalators like David asked, so should we assume that the 85%, 15% split, as we think about taking escalators into the future not just ‘17, but that ‘18 and ‘19 should look like ‘17 if there were no other changes to CPI then?
Jay Brown:
Yes. Ric, that’s accurate and you can see that in the supplement. But beyond that, it’s about 85% fixed and a 15% floating is still the real variable that will change over time that’s where the CPI fall out. And it could – given how low the CPI is currently, I guess it’s unlikely that it cuts against this. More likely, it cuts for us.
Ric Prentiss:
Sure, great. Thanks guys.
Operator:
We will go to Matthew Niknam with Deutsche Bank.
Matthew Niknam:
Hi guys. Thank you for taking the questions. Just one on fourth quarter site leasing guidance, so you saw about a $7 million up-tick this quarter in site leasing revenues, the midpoint of the guide next quarter implies about $1.5 million lift sequentially, so maybe if you can explain what’s driving the slowdown. And then second, on the 2017 outlook, just wondering how you get to that 5% core growth next year, specifically around how you build in new activity in non-renewals split up over the course of the year? Thanks.
Jay Brown:
Yes. On your first question around sequential growth, it has to do with the timing of leasing and churn. The amount of churn that we have in the fourth quarter is really driving that. As I mentioned, I think we have said it a couple of different ways. In terms of the activity that we see, we are not seeing any slowdown in the activity and we think the level of ‘16 continues into 2017. So it’s really around the timing of churn.
Dan Schlanger:
Yes. So on your second question on what we’re building on the 5% growth over 2017, we talked about the push out of churn from ‘16 into ‘17. You can see that in the supplement, where some of the consolidation churn that we expected to happen in ‘16 were now pushed out to ‘17. So what that does is twofold. It increases the ‘15 base and decreases what could happen in ‘17, so that’s baked in. And the second is what Jay talked about as part of the prepared remarks is that we do see $15 million of incremental growth on the small cells. So we talked about historically that being about $55 million of growth in small cell revenues in ‘16 and we’re looking for something in the $70 million neighborhood going into ‘17. And then from macro towers, we see similar growth from ‘16 going into ’17, so no real slowdown at all and a pickup in the small cells, which when you put all that together gets to the growth that we have shown. It’s just – unfortunately, it’s offset by this prepaid rent that we talked about a bit on the call today that’s coming down in growth by $25 million. It reduces the growth rate a fair amount. So we see on kind of the core activity for small cells increasing and towers staying the same and the non-cash portion coming down from a growth perspective. And just to expand a bit on that on the prepaid, it’s really related to prior year more than this year because it’s the amortization over a long period of time. And so really as the leveling off occurs, like I mentioned earlier, the tower business that’s what’s driving the lower growth as opposed to anything that’s impacting this year’s activity.
Matthew Niknam:
And just a follow-up, in terms of pacing of new activity next year, I know traditionally it’s been a little bit more second half weighted, any change in terms of how we should think about that for ‘17?
Jay Brown:
No Matt, no change and what is difficult [indiscernible] we go into the year, we would expect next year to be a bit back end loaded.
Matthew Niknam:
Okay, great. Thank you.
Operator:
And we will go to Amir Rozwadowski with Barclays.
Amir Rozwadowski:
Thank you very much. I was wondering if we could just revisit the questions earlier around the escalators, I mean it seems like the way we should think about it is it’s really a function that mix relative to the contribution of fixed versus CPI-related contracts, but clearly, there has been a lot of chatter by select carriers trying to express their views on the trajectory of escalators going forward, have you seen any push-backs or discussions and would love just sort of thought process around where those discussions have gone and perhaps why you feel comfortable that the fixed rate that you have in place right now is something that we should consider going forward?
Jay Brown:
Yes. Amir, I appreciate the question. I think one of this – and these questions, obviously come up a number of times over the last few quarters. One of the benefits of the supplement I would say is that you can see clearly and go back over time and see that there hasn’t been any change in that escalator. It’s set right in where we expected it too several years ago. So we have not seen any change in our pricing constructs with our tenants and don’t expect that we are going to see any change in that pricing construct. Ultimately, the conversation around price goes to the very attractive value proposition that we have with the carriers. We are sharing the infrastructure across multiple carriers. And the cost of their leasing of these sites or use of these sites is the cost at sub-3%. So when they look at including the effects of all of the amendments that they have done over time and adding additional equipment on the site and were to upgrade through multiple technologies, we are still providing that infrastructure at a very attractive cost proposition to them. And so when there is conversations around the construct and the lease arrangements between us and the carriers which there have been dating all the way back to 1999 when we first leased these assets, the conversation always went right to, what is the value proposition, what are they receiving in exchange for what the cost otherwise would have been and that value proposition remains intact. And we think it remains very attractive. The last point I will make about this is the underlying cost of this real estate, as Simon referenced earlier around municipalities and zoning and other things has driven the cost of the real estate up faster than the carriers’ cost to share that infrastructure over time. And so the underlying cost of the real estate is very supportive of what we are able to achieve on the escalation side and we see that remaining intact. And we haven’t seen nor do I expect we will see a real change in the pricing construct.
Amir Rozwadowski:
That’s very helpful. And if I may one quick follow-up. We are starting to get some data points about potentially some new spectrum deployment starting in ‘17 whether it’s AWS-3 or even FirstNet seemingly getting a lot more traction. What are your thought process around the deployments of those spectrum opportunities and how should we think about those opportunities in relation to your current expectations for growth?
Jay Brown:
Yes, we are assuming largely what’s in the market today in terms of our expectation for growth and we are not assuming additional spectrum auctions or additional deployments beyond what’s there. So, those could be potential upsides to our forecast. What I would tell you over time, as we have seen multiple auctions done and spectrum in the hands of the operators, that’s very likely to extend our runway of growth. So, as we talk about our long-term expectation of growth, it supports our view, we believe that we will be able to sustain our 6% to 7% growth over a long period of time.
Amir Rozwadowski:
Excellent. Thank you so much for the incremental color.
Operator:
And we will go to Colby Synesael with Cowen & Company.
Colby Synesael:
Great, thank you. Two questions if I may. The first one I am just curious if you are finding that having both a macro portfolio as well as small cells is helping one another, so having small cells has helped your macro business or having macro in a given area has helped you win small cell deals that were otherwise, I guess, being competitively bid? And then my second question has to do with the cost of small cells, so at CTIA, one of the takeaways I had was that the carriers are pushing that. If we are going to build out hundreds of thousands if not millions of these over a period of time versus today that the typical carrier has, I don’t know, 40,000 or 60,000 or 70,000 macro cell sites out there, the cost has to come down significantly. And there is talk about is $500 a node or $200 a node the right price. And one of the ways I thought about it is that you could actually, as a fiber provider, go in and share that cost, not just across various wireless carriers, but across other industry vertical that might be interested in fiber such as healthcare or cloud companies or financial services or education etcetera. How big of a focus is that for you? And do you see yourself splitting the cost or sharing the cost of fiber and small cells with those other verticals? And does that become an increasing area of focus for you as you go forward? Thanks.
Jay Brown:
You bet, Colby. On your first question related to having small cells help the macro tower business, I would start by just affirming if we have done multiple times in the call, the tower business is a phenomenal business. And whether you are in the small cell business or not, we think there is tremendous value that has been created in the tower business obviously. But we also believe there is the tremendous amount of value that’s going to be created in the tower business and we don’t view being in the small cell business as a requirement to be successful, a continued success around the tower business and the growth opportunity there. So, I don’t think you have to be in the small cell business. The opportunity that we have seen in small cells, we are there because we believe that will increase and drive dividend growth over a long period of time. So, we believe that the smart allocation of capital that continues to further the growth model, but don’t view it as a necessity to be in. There is certainly incrementally at senior levels of the carriers. It enables a broader conversation about how to be thinking about network deployment. We think that’s helpful and informative to us as we think about the long-term as we can have a broader conversation. But depending on the returns, there maybe a day when we choose not to invest heavily in small cells. So, it’s really a return driven analysis for us, but would admit there is some incremental value around the conversation with the carriers. On the second point and your question around the costs needed to come down, again, just like in towers, small cells are a shared infrastructure asset that the economics of which are far more attractive to the carriers as a result of us sharing among multiple parties than they would be if they were self performed or built for only one carrier. So, the costs effectively are coming down by us being a third-party provider and the initial carrier not bearing the full cost of the deployment and on the ongoing operating costs we are going to share that across multiple operators. As we think about the potential growth drivers of revenue and cash flow over time as we think about that as a shareable asset, our primary focus remains on the wireless carriers. And so using this fiber deployment for small cells, we think is the vast majority of the economic driver for both growth and the opportunity that we see. We have as you know from our Sunesys acquisition and in certain geographies we have used our fiber to provide things like K-12, which is providing broadband to school. Those are long-term contracts that have positions that are very similar to towers and that of small cells and that obviously puts fiber in the areas where people are located in where there is a density of population and so we found over time there are some real synergies of revenues around using that fiber for both schools and then ultimately small cells or small cells and then secondarily to schools. So, there may be over time ways for us to continue to select the assets. That’s not our primary driver at this point, but we do look at some specific cases where we see opportunities for us to expand the revenue and the cash burn.
Colby Synesael:
Thank you very much.
Operator:
Matthew Heinz with Stifel is next.
Matthew Heinz:
Hi, thanks. Good morning. I was hoping you could kind of give us a little more detail on the approximate split of new construction in co-location activity that’s contemplated in your small cell guidance for roughly the $70 million of new leasing, I guess just to get a sense of the capital intensity of that growth?
Jay Brown:
Sure. About 75%, roughly three quarters of the growth is being driven by the deployment of new systems in areas where we don’t have systems today and that could be – when I say new areas that could be like the Chicago example where we are expanding beyond the central business district that’s still in the Chicago market. And then about a quarter roughly of the activity is coming from co-location on existing plant.
Matthew Heinz:
Okay. And then just to confirm, the new construction activity does go under new leasing, is that correct? I guess….
Jay Brown:
That’s correct.
Matthew Heinz:
I guess, it’s a little bit different from maybe how you would account for a new tower.
Jay Brown:
That’s correct. On the tower side, that is separated over in the acquisitions and new tower builds. As the Chicago example shows and the reason for doing that, first of all, you are accurate in your description. We have both the new and the co-location in the leasing bucket on the left hand side of the chart there. And then on the tower side, if we build a new tower, that goes over in the tower builds and acquisitions. So, your assumption is accurate. We do that, because we find it very difficult to allocate both capital and revenue and cash flows as we build laterals on existing systems, at what point is the lateral a new system versus a part of the existing system. And so for ease-of-use, we have just combined those. And again three quarters plus of the activity at this point continues to be the deployment of new system.
Matthew Heinz:
Okay. And then you mentioned that potential upside to your guidance was possible and you think that if that were to occur, it would most likely be on the co-location side?
Jay Brown:
No, Matthew, I would point to the opportunity for us to do it both on the deployment of additional systems as well as co-location. We think those two things will go hand in hand. We are building the early stages of this plant very similar to the early days of towers, where towers were being deployed starting at the central areas of urban areas and then expanding out to the suburbs and that’s happening in small cells. We think that will continue from the markets that we have been in where the vast majority of the activity has been in and around the top 10 markets in the U.S. We see that expanding outside of the top 10 markets. We also see it expanding beyond sort of the central business districts of those markets. So, our expectation today would be that over time we will continue to invest additional capital as the carriers deploy small cells to improve their networks.
Matthew Heinz:
Okay, that’s very helpful. Thanks. And then if I could just go over to the non-renewals, it looks like the expected churn from acquired networks in ‘17 was down $15 million at the midpoint from your last report. I am just wondering how I should square that up with your comments that churn – non-renewals have been pushed out from ‘16 into ‘17. And then if I sort of split out the acquired network churn from the normal churn, I get to about $30 million of quote normal churn or 90 basis points which I think is probably below your historical experience, I am just wondering what you are seeing there in the business that’s kind of reducing the go-forward churn expectations on the normalized side?
Dan Schlanger:
So thanks, Matthew. To your first point, squaring up the ‘15 to ‘17 move, some churn was pushed out from ‘16 to ‘17, but other churn was pushed from ‘17 to beyond, so you can see the beyond column in our supplement will go up as well to make up for that. So what it looks like is that lower churn than we expected in ‘16. And even though some of that pushed out into ‘17, some got pushed even further out. So that’s how you square those two things, if that makes sense.
Matthew Heinz:
Okay.
Dan Schlanger:
And then in terms of the normal churn, I think you are right. You back out what we see as consolidation churn and at least around 90 basis points is your math, I would say a little around 1% is what we are seeing right now, yes. And it’s a little less than what we have seen historically and talking bout historically, 1% is what we are seeing now.
Matthew Heinz:
Okay. Thanks very much.
Operator:
We will go next to Spencer Kurn with New Street Research. Spencer, your line is open and we are unable to hear, if you could please check your mute button. And hearing no response, we will move on to Nick Del Deo with MoffettNathanson. Please go ahead.
Nick Del Deo:
Hi. Good morning. Thanks for taking my question. I have recognized that it’s only in the process, but can you speak to what you are seeing in terms of amendment revenue from AWS-3 upgrades. And more specifically, are the amendment rates consistent with past amendment cycles or are customers trying to put the antennas they can run both AWS-1, AWS-3 which might gone more modest incremental rates?
Jay Brown:
Yes. Nick, on the amendment side, we are seeing pretty similar both rates on the equipment as well as size of equipment, etcetera, from an amendment cycle, so pretty similar to what we have seen over many years. We would expect – I mean as you referenced, given what’s going on in the market, amendment activity as a component of total leasing activity may increase as a percentage of that in 2017 as the carriers focus on some of the activities that you referenced.
Nick Del Deo:
Okay, great. And then maybe a longer-term question, yes, if I look at your ‘17 outlook, if my math is right, it seems you are guiding to something like an incremental cash EBITDA margin on site leasing revenue of about 80% next year, maybe that’s 75% if you strip out the amortization of prepaid rent, is that something we should be thinking of as sort of a normal incremental margin over the next several years given the tower and small cell mix or do you think there is a potential to do better in the small cell 5-point scales?
Jay Brown:
I want to separate the two and talk about towers and small cells separately. On the tower side, when you look at the cost structure, both at the direct operating expenses side and at the G&A side, we are holding costs effectively flat. We would expect a normal course just across the wording adjustment to be about 3% increases year-over-year. And we are well inside of that on towers basically holding everything roughly flat year-over-year. So that drives incremental margins that are extremely high, well over 80%. About 90% would be our expectation, if we think about 2017 on the towers side. On the small cells side, we got a combination of two things going on. On those systems where we are co-locating, we are seeing very high incremental returns which expand the margins on the systems where we are seeing co-location. As we put new systems on air, those margins – the margins of those new systems are in the neighborhood of about 60% for a new system. So those immature assets, if you want to think about them that way. Those immature assets with slightly lower margin than the overall average basically hold the average down. And we don’t see the full benefit of the incremental margins that we are seeing on small cells from a co-location standpoint. And how that progresses over time will largely be a function of how many opportunities do we have in front of us, how much do we invest on the deployment of additional systems and then the margins will fall out from there. If you fast forward all the way to the end of this when the market becomes more saturated in terms of the deployment of those systems, what we see on individual systems is margins that expand at paces that are in line with what we have seen historically for towers. And so rolling forward to a very long view of small cells, I think you continue to see the margins expand and approaching levels that we have enjoyed in the tower business.
Dan Schlanger:
And Nick, before we move off of that, just if you look at the $30 million increase in OpEx and G&A year-over-year, that’s less than 3% of our total cost structure. And that’s an increasing activity. So I do think that what Jay talking about is we are seeing some of that operating leverage now.
Nick Del Deo:
Okay, that’s fine. Thanks for the color guys.
Operator:
We will now go to Michael Rollins with Citi Research.
Michael Rollins:
Hi. Thanks for taking the question. I was wondering if you can refer to your press release where you do the floating bar charts, where you break down the leasing activity, the escalators, the renewals, etcetera, why not move the impact of prepaid rent amortization from the organic conversation over to the way that you look at straight line and acquisitions and if you were to do that, can you help us think through what that says about what activity might have been in 2016 versus what activity looks like in 2017? Thanks.
Dan Schlanger:
Yes. So the reason is because prepaid rent really is an economic decision that our customers and we are making together. And we are getting that rent either upfront or as part of the ongoing operation of the business. So it is really tied on some levels to the new leasing activity. So it is part of the economics we enter into. And if we haven’t gotten the rent upfront, we would be putting it in new leasing activity revenue. But if we don’t put it there or take credit for it from the capital side, it gets lost in that. So we think of it as tied to leasing activity. The reason why it’s growing less isn’t necessarily reflective of the current activity in ‘16 or ‘17, because the current activity in ‘16 we said it’s about flat from ‘15 and it’s about flat to ‘17. That’s why it is actually plateauing and the growth in prepaid rent amortization is coming down. So what it’s speaking to is specifically on the tower side is that growth is the same year-over-year, which is why you are not seeing incremental prepaid amortization, whereas on the small cell side, you are because we are continuing to invest in that business, grow it and get more prepaid rent that we are collecting on that business.
Jay Brown:
Of course you could say and maybe just an additional point there which maybe was the second part of your question, given that we have referenced the amortization what’s related to the tower business, basically towers on an apples-to-apples basis is about flat of about $90 million roughly year-over-year. And then on the small cells side, it’s up $15 million, so it’s gone from about $55 million to about $70 million. So if you thought about it and you wanted to exclude kind of the prepaid conversation from that analysis, then the growth is up about 100 basis points, if you were to take it – if you were saying take a portion of that graph and move it kind of over to the right hand side. And that 100 basis points is being driven entirely from small cells.
Michael Rollins:
And then if you look at the $55 million to $70 million for small cells, how much of that is being driven by incremental co-location versus capital spending in deploying new systems?
Jay Brown:
I would say it’s about the same split. So I would put about three quarter of that to new systems and about a quarter of that roughly to co-location.
Michael Rollins:
Thanks very much.
Operator:
We will go to Batya Levi with UBS.
Batya Levi:
Great. Thank you. A follow-up on the CapEx side, as you look to invest more on the small cells next year, can you provide maybe a dollar amount in terms of how much construction CapEx do you expect to spend. And more strategically, as you are looking to invest more in small cells, can you talk about your decision making process in terms of building versus acquiring from – more fiber assets and maybe leveraging some – your weak multiple into looking – to acquire some assets that are not getting the REIT multiples? Thank you.
Dan Schlanger:
Let me take the first one and [indiscernible] to Jay on the second one, which is on the capital side, on construction, its similar year-over-year from ‘16 to ‘17 on the small cells side. So you should expect to see generally the same amount of spending.
Jay Brown:
Batya, on your second question, we will look at and we will continue to look at opportunities to acquire fiber assets. But the driver of that as I mentioned earlier around our strategy is to lease that fiber to wireless operators primarily for the use of small cells. And so to the extent that we can identify fiber in a given market that we think makes sense on that basis, then we would be interested in the asset, but we don’t spend a lot of time around here thinking about arbitrage within multiples and things. Businesses are valued where they are valued. And so our approach is to invest capital in ways that drive the dividend over the long-term and our strategy for doing that is focused on the wireless operators and deploying small cells.
Batya Levi:
Okay, got it. Thank you.
Operator:
Next is Walter Piecyk with BTIG. Please go ahead.
Walter Piecyk:
Thanks. Just a quick question on the co-location, can you define what that means is that just putting another radio in the box that’s already in the lamppost or does that also include connecting a lamppost that happens to be right above your fiber?
Jay Brown:
It would be both of those, Walter.
Walter Piecyk:
Got it. And then very interesting chart, Chicago, thanks, the five you said gets you to 10% returns. So, just two questions on that, in 5 years, how many tenants per mile do you expect to get? You can obviously give a range and best case scenario or worst case whatever assuming that we get to like in an industry of 1 million plus small cells that type of backdrop. And then if you can just give us some sense – I know this is not easy, but assuming this 75%, 25% mix that I think you have referenced now 3x on the call, how the returns would increase as that 5 tenants per mile goes up? Is it like 200 basis points per tenant or any way you can scale that for us as far as the implied returns of adding additional tenants per mile? Thanks.
Jay Brown:
Yes, I think in Chicago, I will put on how many tenants per node per mile of fiber we are going to ultimately get to. These systems and just to take you back to kind of how we would think about underwriting Chicago and how we did think about underwriting Chicago, we would look at return based on the cost of deployment of the fiber. So, obviously, in the central business district, as you would expect, the cost of deploying that fiber would be significantly greater than as we move out to suburbs, generally speaking, in a metro market. And so the number of nodes required to get to an acceptable IRR or yield on that investment is going to differ based on the cost. What I would tell you, generally, Walter, is that the pace of leasing on small cells has been about twice the pace of that of towers that we have seen historically. And the returns to kind of your last question, the returns track that. So, we are 3 years in on this Chicago system roughly from 2013 to 2016 and then some of that under construction this 2017, so call it 3 to 4 years a snapshot there. And the yield is in the double-digit area around 10%. That took us over a decade in the tower – on the tower side. And that kind of yield on invested capital is well in excess of our cost of capital and provides a terrific return. Now, we certainly don’t think we are done in Chicago. We are early days on this. And so we think the yields and returns continue to expand well beyond what we underwrote when we invested that capital.
Walter Piecyk:
So, I mean as a rule of thumb if 5 went to 10, presumably, your returns would be much higher than 20%, right? It has to scale up from there, I would think right?
Jay Brown:
That’s exactly right.
Walter Piecyk:
Okay. And then just one last – just a little pushback on the urban versus kind of suburban being more expensive, if that’s the case, why wouldn’t every operator just opt for someone that actually already had fiber in the market rather than go with someone that had to build new stuff?
Jay Brown:
The answer is that there is rarely anything there.
Walter Piecyk:
In the urban part of Chicago, I would think that there is fiber running up and down the streets.
Jay Brown:
Yes, this fiber is purpose-built in locations that there is not a capacity of existing fiber to be able to handle these small cell nodes. There are other places where we have utilized some leased fiber where there was some existing fiber in the ground. Obviously, that’s a more cost effective opportunity. But the vast majority of what we are doing, there is not fiber in the ground to provide this. And if there is fiber in the ground, there is not nearly enough capacity to be able to handle small cells.
Walter Piecyk:
That’s helpful. Thank you very much.
Dan Schlanger:
I would also say that we agree with you that when we have fiber in the ground like now you can see in Chicago, we have a great advantage of getting more small cells on that as opposed to somebody coming in and building because of all the things Jay just talked about and you just mentioned is we have an advantage at this point and we expect to see leasing on that fiber. And where we don’t and have seen where other people have the tremendous amount of fiber that will be utilized for small cells, we understand the disadvantage we are at and will at times choose not to go into those markets. So, I think probably what you are talking about is the competitive dynamic around these things and we feel like we have a great position competitively both from our capability standpoint, but also from our footprint standpoint to really accelerate the growth in this business.
Walter Piecyk:
Got it. Thank you very much.
Operator:
And we will take the next question from Michael Bowen with Pacific Crest.
Michael Bowen:
Okay, thanks for squeezing me in here at the end. Question, I may have missed it, but have you divulged any number of tenants per small cell site or can you give us any thoughts on if not kind of where you might see that going in both the near and the distant future and kind of the technology around it and how well that’s working? And then with regard to the carriers, we have been hearing obviously a lot of chatter around pressure from the carriers trying to reduce revenue escalators. Are these current conversations happening? Are they not happening? Can you give us any idea on – I understand you talked about the value proposition and I get all that, but trying to get an idea as to whether this is something that might be imminent? Thanks.
Jay Brown:
Yes, Michael. Appreciate the questions. We haven’t disclosed the number of tenants on small cells. We have focused as you heard from Dan’s comments on yield and return on the investments that we have made. So, I think you are going to continue to hear us mention that, that way you can look at the financial statements and see the expansion of that yields. We think that’s the best way to judge it given how much the economics vary on a market-by-market basis. Number of nodes may not be really indicative of the returns. So, we are focused much more on the capital investment and then what the return of that capital investment is. On your second question around the carriers and conversations, as I mentioned a little earlier, we have seen no change in the pricing constructs with our tenants. And given the value proposition that we provide for those carriers with the cost to lease the assets of something in and around a little bit less than 3%, we think that model continues to hold well into the future.
Michael Bowen:
Okay, thanks.
Jay Brown:
You bet. Operator, let’s take one more question.
Operator:
Alright. Our final question today comes from Michael Hodel with Morningstar. Please go ahead.
Michael Hodel:
Hey, good morning guys. Thanks for taking the question. I just had a question on the Chicago map again going back to that. There are certain areas where I would have expected to see maybe a little bit more density actually, think of a market like [indiscernible] we have an affluent suburb that’s urban in nature and I am kind of getting back to the competitive dynamic question. Is this a situation where the carriers are bidding out kind of neighborhood by neighborhood and there are certain areas where you haven’t been able to win the business or is this just a matter of progression? And then also going back to the idea that in some areas the local phone company or cable company might have existing infrastructure that would be more efficiently leveraged, is it fair to say that in those markets where a Verizon or an AT&T has built more fiber like a FioS type of neighborhood that takes one potential customer out of the mix for you guys?
Jay Brown:
On your first question, I would just say we are not done yet. So, I think you are just seeing the progression of the build-out of wireless networks using small cells. And so we would share your view that over time as we look at that map, we think there will be an increase in density. And if you look at some of the suburbs that you pointed out [indiscernible], we would expect that there will be, over time, greater density of both fiber and nodes in those areas. On your second question, again, this goes back to existing fiber and the capacity of that fiber to provide this kind of solution. It takes a lot of capacity of fiber. And generally speaking, the residential fiber that’s used for products like you mentioned is not going to have enough capacity to handle small cells. So, if it does, it’s a great solution and that would be the lowest cost alternative that – typically that is not a competitor really in our space for small cells.
Michael Hodel:
Okay, great. Thank you very much.
Jay Brown:
You bet.
Jay Brown:
Well, I just want to thank everyone for joining this morning. There maybe a few folks that we weren’t able to get to your questions. Obviously, feel free today to reach out to us. We would be happy to take the questions offline and answer anything we didn’t get to. We are excited about how the business was performing and what we are seeing and look forward to catching up with you early in the New Year to talk about fourth quarter results.
Operator:
And thank you very much. That does conclude our conference for today. I would like to thank everyone for your participation and have a great day.
Executives:
Son Nguyen - Vice President, Corporate Finance Jay A. Brown - President & Chief Executive Officer Daniel K. Schlanger - Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Analysts:
David William Barden - Bank of America Merrill Lynch International Ltd. Simon Flannery - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC Philip A. Cusick - JPMorgan Securities LLC Amir Rozwadowski - Barclays Capital, Inc. Ric H. Prentiss - Raymond James & Associates, Inc. Nick Del Deo - MoffettNathanson Jonathan Atkin - RBC Capital Markets LLC Colby Synesael - Cowen & Co. LLC Batya Levi - UBS Securities LLC Mike L. McCormack - Jefferies LLC Jonathan Schildkraut - Evercore ISI Spencer H. Kurn - New Street Research LLP (US) Michael Bowen - Pacific Crest Securities Timothy Horan - Oppenheimer & Co., Inc. (Broker) Walter Piecyk - BTIG LLC Matthew Niknam - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.
Operator:
Good day and welcome to the Crown Castle International Second Quarter 2016 Earnings Call. Today's conference is being recorded. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Son Nguyen. Please go ahead, sir.
Son Nguyen - Vice President, Corporate Finance:
Thank you, Vickie, and good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us today as we review our second quarter 2016 results. With me on the call this morning are Jay Brown, Crown Castle's Chief Executive Officer; and Dan Schlanger, Crown Castle's Chief Financial Officer. To aid the discussion, we have posted supplemental materials in the Investors section of our website at crowncastle.com, which we will refer to throughout the call this morning. This call will contain forward-looking statements, which are subject to certain risks, uncertainties, and assumptions, and actual the results may vary materially from those expected. Information about potential factors, which could affect our results is available in the press release and the Risk Factors section of the company's SEC filings. Our statements are made as of today, July 22, 2016, and we assume no obligations to update any forward-looking statements. In addition, today's call includes discussion of certain non-GAAP financial measures. Tables reconciling these non-GAAP financial measures are available in the Supplemental Information Package in the Investors section of the company's website. In response to recent public comments and guidance by the SEC regarding the use of certain non-financial measures, we have adjusted the presentation of our quarterly earnings information including information in our Supplemental Information Package. We have not changed the definition of our continuing non-GAAP financial measures discussed on this call or in the quarterly earnings information. With that, I'll turn the call over to Jay.
Jay A. Brown - President & Chief Executive Officer:
Thanks, Son, and good morning, everyone. As you saw from our earnings release last night, we had another quarter of great performance, meeting or exceeding the midpoint of our previously provided second quarter outlook and allowing us to increase our full year 2016 outlook. The results reflect our continued focus on creating shareholder value through solid execution, disciplined capital allocation and strong balance sheet management, all of which positions us to achieve our goal of delivering long-term annual dividend growth of 6% to 7%. What I'd like to do this morning in my prepared remarks is spend just a few minutes providing a bit more detail on each of the key focused areas that underpin our ability to drive our 6% to 7% per year dividend growth and then hand the call over to Dan to talk about our financial results for the quarter. The first point I'll touch on is our long-term track record of execution. We have a highly motivated very talented team of people who are dedicated to delivering strong results. They have developed the systems and processes necessary to operate and manage our business to generate strong cash flows through a variety of business cycle. Additionally, we've been able to grow through both organically and acquisitions, including integrating those acquisitions effectively. This solid execution has resulted in very good financial performance. Since 2007, we have grown AFFO per share from $1.33 to our current expectation of $4.71 for the full year 2016, representing 15% compounded annual growth per share. Additionally, since 2014, we have returned approximately $7 per share in dividends, further enhancing the return for our shareholders. The combination of our track record of execution, the quality of the portfolio of assets that we have accumulated, the secular tailwinds of an increasing demand for wireless connectivity and the strength of our business model position us well to capitalize on the positive industry trends we are seeing coming our way, which is the second topic I want to highlight. As we look to the future, we believe wireless carriers will continue to invest in their network infrastructure, as they take advantage of what many expect to be a multi-fold increase in mobile data usage between now and 2020. Specifically, we believe our runway of growth is supported by the amount of spectrum that is expected to be deployed over the next several year, including spectrum from last year's AWS-3 auction to spectrum currently held by the carriers and others such as DISH and FirstNet that is yet to be deployed and spectrum from future expected auctions. Further out on the horizon, we expect the deployment of 5G will drive growth on both our tower and small cell assets, as the carriers look to densify their networks to provide the coverage, capacity and speed needed to support mobile video, the Internet of Things, fixed wireless broadband, and other developing use cases. Given these expected developments and consistent with carrier commentary, we expect the carriers to continue to invest over the long-term to maintain and improve network quality. As the leading U.S. provider of towers and small cells, we have the opportunity to lease our assets and capture significant organic growth by providing the wireless carriers with a comprehensive offering of wireless infrastructure solutions. In addition to the organic growth we see in our business, we have also had a tremendous opportunity to invest capital to drive attractive returns, which is the third key area I would like to focus on. From a capital allocation standpoint, we are particularly excited about the small cell opportunities that we see ahead of us. Because small cells are deployed closer to the end user and in more dense array, such as on traffic lights or telephone poles, they represent the natural progression of network densification required to provide continuous consistent high capacity and low latency connectivity. This is important as consumers are increasingly looking to utilize their wireless devices for high usage applications, including on-demand video, virtual reality and the Internet of Things. As these demands continue to increase, wireless carriers are increasingly turning to small cells to provide wireless connectivity across urban and suburban geographies where towers are not available or cannot solve the network needs alone. To get a better understanding of how we think about small cell investments, we would encourage you to think of fiber as a tower. Fiber is the critical shareable element in small cells. Much of the tower structure is the shareable element in macro sites. Similar to towers, the majority of the capital per small cell is invested initially with the first wireless carrier deployment. This initial investment relates primarily to the build-out of fiber. And again, similar to towers, we expect to increase the yields on our investments over time by colocating additional carrier customers on the fiber we constructed for the first carrier. We are seeing this increase in yields in small cells play out at the pace we expected. Importantly, in both our tower and small cell businesses, this model of constructing an asset that can be utilized by multiple carriers and other customers reduces the cost for our customers compared to what they would otherwise have to spend to build the assets for themselves. We believe our fiber footprint of 17,000 miles in top mature markets combined with the capabilities that we have acquired and developed over time give us time to market and economic advantages that should allow us to capture a significant share of this large opportunity. Finally, the last aspect I wanted to address is how we think about financing our business. Our revenues are primarily derived from long-term leases that deliver a stable, growing and high quality cash flow strength, which is the underpinning of our dividends to shareholders. And our investment in small cells represents a significant growth opportunity to further enhance our long-term dividend growth. Against this backdrop, our goal is to match the quality of our business with a strong balance sheet. We believe that maintaining an investment grade balance sheet provides us with access to a deep, stable and low cost of capital, reducing risk to our cash flows and providing us with increased flexibility to pursue potential investment opportunities that we believe will increase our dividend in the future. In summary, how we operate, manage and finance our business is focused around growing the dividend. I believe that increasing our dividend consistently over time is the best way to create value for our shareholders. Given the leasing potential of our portfolio of assets, the long runway of expected network activity and our opportunities to invest capital at attractive returns, I believe we are well-positioned to do just that by delivering upon our stated goal of growing dividends per share 6% to 7% annually over the next several years. With that, I'll turn the call over to Dan to discuss our financial results for the quarter.
Daniel K. Schlanger - Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer:
Thanks, Jay, and good morning, everyone. Before I get to our results, I wanted to talk briefly about my first few months at Crown. When I joined the company, I was enthusiastic and optimistic about the business, the company and the people. As I've spent time meeting with employees, learning about the industry and developing an appreciation for how the company operates, all of my expectations have been exceeded. As I have learned more, I'm starting to really understand how the combination of steady, high quality cash flows, secular growth trends and Crown's solid execution is a hard one to beat. What I did not realize is how talented and genuinely nice the people are who work here. So I want to thank everyone who's made my transition so smooth. It truly is a great place and I appreciate the opportunity to be a part of it. With that, I'll now turn to discussing our second quarter. As Jay mentioned, we delivered another strong quarter of financial results, meeting or exceeding the midpoint of our previously provided quarterly outlook. In addition, due to the solid first half results we have generated, combined with what we believe will continue to be a steady leasing environment, we have raised our full year 2016 outlook. Turning to second quarter results on slide four, site rental revenues grew 9% year-over-year from $737 million to $805 million, inclusive of approximately 7% growth derived from organic contribution to site rental revenues. The 7% or $49 million growth from organic contribution to site rental revenues consisted of approximately 9.5% growth from new leasing activity and cash escalations, net of approximately 2.5% from tenant non-renewals. Moving to slide five, our second quarter results for site rental gross margin, adjusted EBITDA, AFFO and AFFO per share, each met or exceeded the midpoint of our previously provided second quarter 2016 outlook, reflecting the overall healthy leasing environment. Moving on to investment activities, during the second quarter, we invested approximately $200 million in capital expenditures, of which $19 million were sustaining capital expenditures and $180 million were discretionary investments. Included in these discretionary investments is approximately $19 million of land purchases we completed to further strengthen our control of the ground beneath our towers. Today, nearly 80% of our site rental gross margin generated from towers is on land we own or control for more than 20 years. Additionally, the average term remaining on our ground leases is over 30 years. The proactive approach we take to managing the ground beneath our towers is core to our focus of producing stable, growing, high quality cash flows. The balance of our discretionary investments was in revenue generating capital expenditures that we believe strengthened our portfolio of assets, extended our leadership position in shared wireless infrastructure and enhanced our ability to deliver strong long-term growth and dividend per share. Moving on to financing activities. During the quarter, we continue to proactively manage our balance sheet, while returning significant capital to our shareholders through our quarterly common stock dividend of $0.885 per share, which was 8% higher than in the same period of 2015. As part of our balance sheet management, in April, we issued $1 billion of unsecured notes to refinance debt maturities coming due in 2017 to borrowings under our credit facilities. This offering represented the culmination of our long-standing goal of reaching an investment grade credit rating at each of three major rating agencies. We believe this credit profile underscores the stability and quality of our long-term cash flows, and it lowers our overall cost to capital, which we believe is an advantage in our business of providing shared wireless infrastructure. Following this offering, the only debt maturity we have prior to 2020 is a $500 million tranche of notes due at the end of 2017. Shifting to full year 2016 outlook on slide six, we've increased the midpoint of our guidance by $3 million for site rental revenues, $3 million for site rental gross margin, $9 million for adjusted EBITDA and $7 million for AFFO. On an AFFO per share basis compared to 2015, our updated midpoint for full year 2016 outlook of $4.71 represents an increase of approximately 10%. The increase in our full year outlook reflects the strong results from the first half of the year, our expectations that the level of leasing activity from our carrier customers will remain steady, an increase in expected contribution from network services gross margin for the remainder of the year, and the timing benefit related to tenant non-renewals occurring later than previously expected. It is important to note that our expectations for tenant non-renewals associated with the decommissioning of portions of the Clearwire, MetroPCS and LEAP networks remained unchanged in the aggregate. Looking beyond 2016, we believe we are in a multi-year cycle of network upgrades and enhancements, as carriers focused on meeting significantly increasing demand for wireless connectivity, which we believe will benefit both our tower and small cell businesses. Given this backdrop and combined with our leading portfolio of wireless infrastructure across both towers and small cells, we believe that we are well-positioned to achieve our stated long-term goal of delivering compound annual growth of 6% to 7% in AFFO and dividends per share. With that, Vickie, I'd like to open up the call to questions.
Operator:
Thank you. And we'll take our first question from David Barden with Bank of America.
David William Barden - Bank of America Merrill Lynch International Ltd.:
Hey, guys. Thanks for taking the questions. I guess, two questions, if I could, maybe for you, Dan. If we look at the organic year-over-year revenue growth as you define it in 1Q, it was $7.8 million, in 2Q, it's $6.9 million, and for the full year, it's going to be $6.3 million, as you've been guiding, could you kind of waterfall the contributing factors to that deceleration? I'm assuming it has mostly to do with your inclusion of the small cell revenues in the organic growth number, but if you could kind of map that out for us, it'll be helpful. And then, second, Jay, I'm sure you know that there's a big conversation out there about the AT&T tower RFP comments from T-Mobile about trying to find quote/unquote competitors for towers that are getting too expensive. Could you kind of opine a little bit about that RFP and talk a little bit about your portfolio in terms of what you might sense as the percentage of towers that have a combination of expiring leases and very expensive leases coming up for renewal where there might be substitutes near you. It's a topic we're addressing and I'd be great to hear your thoughts on it. Thanks.
Jay A. Brown - President & Chief Executive Officer:
Sure. Maybe I'll take the second question first, and then, Dan can go through the first question there. We're not going to get into, obviously, specific conversations that we're having with each of the carriers. But as we look at the business, we haven't seen the dynamic change from what it's been like in the long period of time. The towers that we provide to the wireless operators provide them with a very cost effective solution and over time, obviously, tower rents have escalated. But the main cause of that escalation is the underlying cost of that asset. And we've done a good job, over a long period of time, of extending ground leases, as Dan mentioned in his comments, and investing capital there, in order to own the ground underneath those assets. And like any real estate asset over time, there's appreciation in that overall cost. And so, we feel comfortable about where we are positioned relative to all of the carriers and the provision of where rent is relative to the space that they're using and the underlying cost of the asset. And while this topic I think over the last six months to nine months has maybe gotten more conversation than what it has over the last couple of years, it's not really a new conversation and we've had this conversation all the way dating back to kind of the 1999 period and it comes up from time to time. And the value equation and the provision of that value to the carriers today is about a 2.5% to 3% cost of lease against the overall cost of the asset and we believe that the very attractive cost provision, as we share the asset across multiple carriers, and in essence provides them with a really low cost alternative, and frankly, we don't see that the pricing dynamic in the business or the overall structure or arrangements that we have with the carriers, we just don't see that changing.
Daniel K. Schlanger - Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer:
And Dave, to your first question on the organic year-over-year revenue growth, a lot of the leasing activity last year was back-end loaded which, because of the offset of when it comes into play comes into the first half of the year. And so, the early part of the year here – in this year, looks like there's more growth. And as the activity is again a little back-end loaded this year, we won't see that until 2017. And we really think of it as a year-over-year basis as opposed to quarter-over-quarter. So the way, I would say it depends on when the timing of the activity comes in, but it's really more of a quarter to quarter anomaly more than anything else. And so, I think the year-over-year is what I would generally focus on.
David William Barden - Bank of America Merrill Lynch International Ltd.:
Got it. All right. Thanks, guys.
Operator:
We'll go next to Simon Flannery with Morgan Stanley.
Simon Flannery - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
Great. Thanks very much. Jay, in your remarks in the press release, you talked about a healthy leasing environment, perhaps you could just characterize a little bit more around that. I think that Dan was just talking about second half loaded. So what is the level of activity that you're seeing right now versus say last quarter and versus your expectations? And I think you've said before maybe 60% of the activity in the second half of the year. And then, there's been a number of press reports just about the challenges of sighting small cells with municipalities, et cetera, particularly for some of the carriers who are not going your route. But can you just talk about where you are in terms of getting what you need from the municipalities been able to deliver on time and on budget for your carrier customers? Thanks.
Jay A. Brown - President & Chief Executive Officer:
Sure Simon, thanks for the questions. On the first question around the leasing environment, we're expecting, as we have been through the course of the whole year, about $170 million of revenue growth, organic revenue growth, comprised of about $115 million on the tower side, and then, about $55 million of growth on the small cell side. That was really our expectation going into the calendar year 2016, and it's held throughout the year, and we see that holding through the balance of the year, which is why our expectation is unchanged. That is very similar to the long-term expectation that we have in the business that underwrites or underpins our 6% to 7% dividend growth in the comments that I made. So we view that as a very healthy environment. We're seeing activity across the spectrum from the carriers on both small cells and towers and feel good about what that's going to look like for the balance of the year. On your second question, this has certainly gotten some play, I think, in the news recently around some of the difficulties of sighting small cells as you referenced. And our experience has been that they are difficult to sight and to locate, and I think that underpins a big component of what we think about the business. One would say the same thing about towers, about how difficult they are to get sighted and to get put into municipalities. So it's a great barrier to entry. And as we look at small cells, we would say the same thing about small cells that they are operationally difficult in terms of moving through municipalities and local restrictions around planning and zoning. They take a long time to do. Generally, our experience has been that it's an 18-month to 24-month process in order to work through that. And on top of that, it's very challenging from an RF design standpoint. So it takes an enormous amount of skill and expertise in order to deploy these. And both the combination of the high barrier to entry that's created by the local municipalities, as well as the operational expertise required in order to navigate both the RF site as well as the municipalities, we think it's core strength for us, and it's supportive of the business long-term. And frankly, the more difficult it is, we think it really separates us from our competitors and shows how skillful the team really is. So we are seeing it, but I wouldn't necessarily describe it as worse than what it's been in the past. And frankly, I think it's supportive of the value of the business.
Simon Flannery - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
Great. Thank you.
Operator:
We'll go next to Phil Cusick with JPMorgan.
Philip A. Cusick - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Hey, guys. Thanks. Two, if I may. First, can you talk about competition on the small cell space you referenced a little bit earlier, but are you seeing more bidders for RFPs and is that impacting pricing at all?
Jay A. Brown - President & Chief Executive Officer:
I don't know that I would characterize it as we're seeing more competitors than what we've seen in the past, Phil. We do see competitors in the space. It hasn't changed our expectations around returns. We haven't seen the returns that we're experiencing when we're bidding on new small cells. We haven't seen those come down from what we've seen previously. So there are competitors in this space. I wouldn't describe it as a changing landscape. And in terms of returns, we've seen those hold in there where they've been over the last couple of years.
Philip A. Cusick - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Okay. And second, can you talk about network services trends both in the macro and the small cell business?
Jay A. Brown - President & Chief Executive Officer:
Yeah. In the macro business, which is really the more relevant component, given how small small cell is in services, we have seen an – as reflected in our expectation for the balance of the year, we're assuming a bit higher capture rate on activity in the back half of the year than what we had previously expected. So we think activity is about the same and we're assuming we capture a few more things. I would point out, I know there's been a number of questions over the last couple of years around items that have been things such as pay and walk fees and other things that we have benefited our services business. Our expectation of growth here is, really, what we would describe as core services related to installing tenants on the towers or doing amendments, and that's what's driving our increased expectations on the back half of the year.
Philip A. Cusick - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Good. Thanks, Jay.
Operator:
We'll go next to Amir Rozwadowski with Barclays.
Amir Rozwadowski - Barclays Capital, Inc.:
Thank you very much for taking the question, folks.
Jay A. Brown - President & Chief Executive Officer:
Okay.
Amir Rozwadowski - Barclays Capital, Inc.:
One of the leading equipment manufacturers, Ericsson, made some comments earlier this week on their surprise on the pace of 5G initiatives, particularly in the U.S. There seems to be a lot of debate going on right now on how this technology could impact macro site investments versus the need for increased densification by small cells. You folks seemed to be in an interesting place given your key positioning in both parts of the market. And so, we'd welcome any thoughts you have on how you think about the potential opportunities or even headwinds as that technology rolls out.
Jay A. Brown - President & Chief Executive Officer:
Yeah. I think I would say, similar to what I made in my prepared remarks, that we're going to – we believe we'll see, in a 5G environment, carriers make investments across both towers and small cells. We don't believe that either one of them could deliver the kind of speed and low latency and ubiquitous coverage that they're describing whether that's regardless of the application that they're trying to ultimately drive towards by the deployment of 5G. So I wouldn't – at this point, I wouldn't try to put much more of a finer point on it than that. We think it will benefit both towers and small cells. And as you've referenced, we're pretty excited about our position, because we think we'll benefit from the combination of both.
Amir Rozwadowski - Barclays Capital, Inc.:
And then, if I may, a quick follow-up to that prior question on the small cell side. I mean it seems like you haven't seen any change in some of the initial returns expected on some of the small cell deployments. Do you think that there's a potential risk of that going forward depending on what happens with certain fiber providers? And the reason I asked the question is that we are hearing that select carriers, outside of the Sprint commentary that's been pretty notable, are looking to densify their small cell footprint by going direct to metro fiber providers. So we'd love your thoughts on that topic.
Jay A. Brown - President & Chief Executive Officer:
Yeah. I think if you were to think about this as kind of a long-term business model, we make investments based on the returns as we see them today and there's – we're not undertaking any obligation or we're not signing up for capital investment in an environment that, in later years, may have lower returns on it than what they do today. By way of example, if you go back to business and looked at what we did in kind of the 1999-2000 era, we were building a 1,000 towers to 2,000 towers a year back then, because the returns were attracted to the business relative to the cost of capital and what we thought we could drive in terms of shareholder value. Today, we build less than 50 towers on an annual basis. And the reason for that is because we just don't see the incremental returns as high enough. So if you roll this forward, I would certainly hold out the possibility that there would be competitors in the space and that there would be a change in the pricing environment. And if the returns weren't attractive to us, then we would stop making the investments as we're making now. We haven't seen that to be clear though. Today, what we're seeing is very attractive returns and an opportunity to invest capital that we think will further our growth rate over time. And similar to the comments that I make about building towers or building new fiber, the assets that we already have today, we would expect, over the long period of time, to continue to see lease-up which would drive those incremental yields and incremental returns. So I think if it's really as we're choosing today to invest in and build immature assets because we believe there will be an environment over time that will fill those assets up and increase the yield over time. And then, as we get into future periods, frankly, we'll just have to make the right capital allocation decision and ensure all along the way that every time we make the investment, we're doing so because we believe that will increase our dividend growth over the long-term.
Daniel K. Schlanger - Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer:
And Amir...
Amir Rozwadowski - Barclays Capital, Inc.:
Thank you very much for the incremental color.
Daniel K. Schlanger - Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer:
Amir, it's Dan, just to follow up on that a bit, you can see in our second quarter results for the small cells that the investments that we've made today are actually coming in at returns that we find very attractive and I think you'd find very attractive for those new assets that Jay is talking about. So I think that even the financials we're showing today can kind of bear out what Jay was talking about.
Amir Rozwadowski - Barclays Capital, Inc.:
Thanks very much, Dan.
Operator:
We'll go next to Ric Prentiss with Raymond James.
Ric H. Prentiss - Raymond James & Associates, Inc.:
Thanks. Good morning, guys.
Jay A. Brown - President & Chief Executive Officer:
Hi Ric.
Ric H. Prentiss - Raymond James & Associates, Inc.:
Hey. Continue the small cell theme. Jay, you mentioned that small cells are hard to do, takes a lot of skills that you guys have, could be 18 months to 24 months to kind of build them out. Have you thought about being able to provide us maybe some of the pipeline or backlog that you have? You mentioned $55 million of organic revenue from small cell building construction in 2016. But how should we think about what you're looking at, at 2017 and even 2018 to get a little more comfort on kind of filling Amir's questions?
Jay A. Brown - President & Chief Executive Officer:
Yeah. I think, Ric, the best way probably to describe it is, at this point, we think the buildup that we'll see in 2017 is similar to the levels that we've assumed in 2016. We'll give you more guidance on that as we get towards October and giving you a full outlook in 2017. But at this point, I think where I would guide you towards is, as we talked about in the past, the $170 million of revenue growth in the business is about $115 million from towers and the $55 million from small cells. That's what we've baked into our longer term forecast, driving towards that 6% to 7% dividend growth. And so, as you're thinking about the model, at least the way we're thinking about the model is a level of growth that's similar to what we've seen in the last couple of years.
Ric H. Prentiss - Raymond James & Associates, Inc.:
And I think you also mentioned, think of the fiber as kind of the tower asset. And I noticed this time the fiber miles are listed at just 17,000. I think last time might have been 16,500. Was there an increase in the fiber or was it just you guys are going to a rounded point there?
Jay A. Brown - President & Chief Executive Officer:
There's increase in the fibers. We're making investment in building up small cells. Our mix of colocation and new is similar to what we've seen this year of about 30% colocation and about 70% of what we're doing is building new anchor build systems.
Ric H. Prentiss - Raymond James & Associates, Inc.:
Great. And the last question, churn continues to kind of slip out each quarter the expectation, it looks like this quarter, the expected churn from acquired networks shifted about $5 million out of 2016 into 2017 based on the supplement. What are you seeing there, and is it possible that that churn might not ever manifest itself?
Daniel K. Schlanger - Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer:
Yeah. I think what we're seeing is exactly what it looks like, which is we thought the churn was going to come in 2016. We pushed out to 2017, because we now believe that it will be in 2017. It would be great if it never manifested itself. It will be something we'd be really happy about, but as you can tell from what we put in the supplement, right now, we think the aggregate level of churn is going to stay what we thought it has been over time.
Ric H. Prentiss - Raymond James & Associates, Inc.:
Great. Thanks, guys.
Operator:
We'll go next to Nick Del Deo with MoffettNathanson.
Nick Del Deo - MoffettNathanson:
Hi. Thanks for taking my question. Regarding your comments around the focus on growing the dividend and maintaining a solid balance sheet, I was hoping you could talk a bit about how you balance those goals against your level of investment in small cells and whether you think it'd be appropriate to or if you'll have to issue any meaningful amount of equity in the future.
Jay A. Brown - President & Chief Executive Officer:
Yeah. I think, Nick, it's a good question around how we're spending the capital and overall cash flow in the business. And at this point, as we're talking about guiding and thinking about our expectation of investment, we really don't see that at the current level. But there may be opportunities in the future that would lead to that. And again, I would point you back to the discipline that we've shown over a long period of time and would expect to show in the future as we look at those investments. There are obviously opportunities that would make sense to pursue and may include some equity associated with it. But you can be sure if that were the case, we're looking at this on a real cost of capital associated with that and then going back to does it really at the end of the day drive the dividend. Now, one thing I would point out is don't miss the growth in EBITDA that we've got generating in the business. And the aim here is to run the balance sheet at about five times debt to EBITDA. And so over time, we're creating leverage capacity even as we go towards our target of five times debt to EBITDA. And at this point, we think that's sufficient to cover the investment that we're making in small cells, as well as covering the dividend. You can see that maybe a real quick look at just look at the cash flow statement. First six months, we got about $900 million of cash flow from operations, $600 million of dividends and we got about $392 million of CapEx. So year-to-date, there's about $92 million or so of CapEx in excess of the cash flow. Obviously, that's well within our ability to handle by drawing under the revolver given the growth in EBITDA.
Nick Del Deo - MoffettNathanson:
Okay. That's great. And then, maybe I can slip in one on small cells. What portion of your base is small cells? Would you characterize as being in what we think of as being called classic big city urban locations like New York or Philly as opposed to other areas like the high-end residential example which you gave in last quarter's presentation. And is the pipeline any different than the base of business?
Jay A. Brown - President & Chief Executive Officer:
Yeah. About 90% of the revenues in those fiber, et cetera, would be in our top 10 to 15 markets in the U.S. If you were to look at areas that were outside of that, they make up venues and other things that wouldn't be in those top markets, there is about 2% of our revenues in high-end locations that'll be outside of top markets. So the vast majority of the cash flow is being generated in those top markets, and the vast majority of the fiber that we've built from small cells we've constructed are in those top markets.
Nick Del Deo - MoffettNathanson:
Okay. That's great. Thanks so much, Jay.
Operator:
We'll go next to Jonathan Atkin with RBC Capital Markets.
Jonathan Atkin - RBC Capital Markets LLC:
Yes. Good morning. So I had a question about – there's a comment yesterday that one of the operators said that they are going to be doing 35,000 carrier adds this year, approximately double the levels of last year. And I just wondered that kind of activity, how does that manifest itself in terms of generating amendment revenues on the legacy AT&T assets that you now own versus the legacy Crown assets that were not bought from AT&T, what will be some of the differences and how you see revenues from that type of activity?
Jay A. Brown - President & Chief Executive Officer:
Yeah. Jonathan, we would see that in the form of increased recurring revenue, site rental revenues of the carriers and I don't want to speak specifically to the example that you raised, but across all of the carriers, as they look to improve their network and increase the capacity or utilize additional spectrum, the results of that is amendments on our site and on our sites which drive increased site rental revenues. I think we've mentioned this the last couple of quarters, but at this point, virtually, every lease that we see on our sites is carrier of that equipment, that's driving additional revenue growth, and we're obviously seeing that reflected in the results.
Jonathan Atkin - RBC Capital Markets LLC:
Okay. And then, on the 2016 AFFO outlook, I noticed there's a $10 million increase in expenses, and I apologize if you addressed that earlier, but what's driving that?
Jay A. Brown - President & Chief Executive Officer:
A couple of items I would point to. One is on the services side, given the increase in activity, there's a little bit of additional cost that we incur associated with that. Some of it is the – another component of it is our outperformance for full year 2016, our expected outperformance against our original plan drives some increase in our expected employee bonuses. And then, I would also point out that as we look at the year moving up the bottom end of the guidance, as we did in this quarter and as we did prior quarters, that just migrates the cost structure towards a little higher end. So a lot of that is honestly just narrowing the range. In terms of expectation which is, frankly, probably more helpful, if you think about modeling the business, from the Q1 level of G&A, we basically think it runs flat for the whole year. So we have previously been assuming, based on the guide, that there was going to be some cost that were going to come out and we're forecasting that to basically be flat for the balance of the year for the reasons that I gave you.
Jonathan Atkin - RBC Capital Markets LLC:
Okay. And then, finally, you broke out land purchase CapEx through towers and small cells, I believe, for the first time, it's a solid amount, but I just wondered if that's indicative of more land CapEx activity going forward in the small cell business.
Daniel K. Schlanger - Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer:
No, not really. Not indicative of that.
Jonathan Atkin - RBC Capital Markets LLC:
Okay. Great. Well, thanks very much.
Operator:
We'll go next to Colby Synesael with Cowen & Company.
Colby Synesael - Cowen & Co. LLC:
Great. Thank you. You made a comment, Jay, and you've done it before where you compared the small cell business to the macro tower business and referenced fibers being comparable to towers. But when I think of the tower business, I think of that is, at this point, a very well-defined and structured business. There's not much variability from one build to another in terms of getting a required initial yield and you guys talked about with the small cells business getting on average typically 6% to 7% initial yield, when you deploy it for an anchor customer. And I guess my question is how standardized is that? I mean does that vary quite a bit? I mean are there some small cell deals where you're doing right now and it's actually something below that and there's others that are well above that, and it's really averaging that 6% to 7%? Or are you seeing that pretty consistently deal by deal? And then, my second question, you guys have talked about 6% to 7% AFFO and dividend growth over the long term, you've mentioned it again on today's call. But when I look at the growth that you're doing right now, the 10% AFFO growth, the 8% dividend growth, I appreciate you have the converts, I appreciate the law of large numbers, but is there anything else there that we should be aware of that would explain why we could see a few hundred basis points reduction in growth perhaps as we go into the next year? Thanks.
Jay A. Brown - President & Chief Executive Officer:
Sure. On your first question, there are obviously – and you would expect there would be anytime you're investing the amount of capital that we're investing. I'm sure we could find you a couple of examples that would be outside of that normal range. But the vast majority of the investments that we're making in small cells would come in right around the average that we're giving you in terms of returns. And you're correctly pointing out that's the way we would think about it. So it really depends on market dynamics and other things around where the exact dollars are. So we're really pricing this to yields. And we're seeing the vast majority of them fall within the range that we're giving you around at initial investments for an anchor carrier. On your second question on the target, maybe an easy way to think about it is, in this calendar year, the 10% is benefited by about 200 basis points from acquisitions that we made that were immediately accretive. And so, that would take it down to kind of the 8% range. And then, from there, you correctly point out the convert, the preferred that we have coming due at the end of this year. So maybe a simple item would just be to take that 10%, make it 8% with the acquisition and very well maybe that over time we find opportunities like that that are attractive, accretive acquisitions, but we're not going to bake into our updated forecast.
Colby Synesael - Cowen & Co. LLC:
Great. Thank you.
Operator:
We'll go next to Batya Levi with UBS.
Batya Levi - UBS Securities LLC:
Great. Thank you. Couple of questions. First, on the guidance for the year, you increased it slightly because of the delay in churn, but it looks like the new leasing revenue growth is also expected to be slightly lower. Can you talk about the driver for that? And then, the second question on small cell margins, looks like it picked up nicely year-over-year. Is this a good level that we can continue to see? Where do you think margins for small cells could get to over time? Thank you.
Daniel K. Schlanger - Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer:
Yeah, Batya. So on the first question, on new leasing, you can see that we actually haven't changed our outlook on that. It was $170 million in our prior outlook, and it's $170 million now. I think one of the things that we're noticing is we give ranges of these things, which is the approximations we put in those charts, and it gets to be too precise. And so, I would not extrapolate that to say that our new leasing activity is any different. As Jay pointed out, it's what we thought it was going to be at the beginning of the year. It's held through this year, $115 million from towers and $55 million from small cells. And then, in terms of the small cells gross margins, those will fluctuate quarter to quarter, but generally, what we see is that we look at this more like Jay was talking about on the returns that we get in these projects and the kind of the overall margins we get may fluctuate depending on how the deal is structured and what happens and when things come on. So it's probably not going to fluctuate terribly from where it is now, but I wouldn't focus on that as the driver of how we would think about the incremental investment in those projects.
Batya Levi - UBS Securities LLC:
Okay. Thank you.
Operator:
We'll go next to Mike McCormack with Jefferies.
Mike L. McCormack - Jefferies LLC:
Hi guys. Thanks. Jay, maybe just a quick comment on the AWS-3 deployments, what you're expecting from a timing perspective? And then, just also second on 5G, just your thoughts around what that means to you, guys, opportunity, threat.
Jay A. Brown - President & Chief Executive Officer:
Yeah. On the first one, AWS-3, it's a component of what we're seeing in terms of leasing activity and our expectation would be that, as we go through the balance of this year and into 2017, it's going to continue to be a component that's embedded in our $170 million of increased leasing activity that we would expect. 5G, it's important I think whenever we talk about kind of longer-term, where we think the growth rate in the business, the thing that we like to point out to investors around future opportunities is the level of activity that we've seen from the carriers over a long period of time is inside of a relatively close band of activity. And so, we would look at 5G, for instance, or additional spectrum that we think we'll get auctioned off or FirstNet. And we would look at all of those opportunities that's likely to extend the runway of growth in the business. And so, at the moment or in the near term, we may see more benefit from an AWS-3 like deployment or additional carriers being added across the towers for various reasons today. And then, over the longer term, we would look at it and say, we will probably see activity from things like the deployment of 5G and FirstNet and other spectrum that's not currently being used by the carriers. So I would describe that as extending the runway of growth. It's probably the best way to think about it.
Mike L. McCormack - Jefferies LLC:
Great. Thanks, Jay.
Operator:
We'll go next to Jonathan Schildkraut with Evercore ISI.
Jonathan Schildkraut - Evercore ISI:
Thank you for fitting the question in here. So look, I'd like to ask a couple more questions on small cell, if you're not too tired of hearing about it. But it's interesting in terms of you laying out the development and expected yields over time. And I was wondering if you could give us a sense, because in the past, you've talked about most of the capital being for anchor tenant builds, if that's still the case, if you could give us a little color on sort of where the tenancy is. And then, more specifically, if there're any older systems that you have out there where you could sort of isolate the economics and sort of give us some visibility into how the yields grow over time as the systems mature, I think that'd be really helpful. Thanks.
Jay A. Brown - President & Chief Executive Officer:
Yeah, Jonathan, no, we're not tired of talking about small cells. We enjoy the subject. Most of the capital is invested upfront as we build the fiber. That remains to be the case today. And then, over time, you have a couple of things happen. The case studies we talked about last time on the call, I think, are instructive and helpful there. In both cases, we saw a couple of things happened. One is that over time, we see the initial carrier come back and add additional nodes across a given geography of fiber that, in essence, increases the density. And that looks – if you're making the comparison to the tower model, that looks like amendments to the base business where that first tenant, the yield associated with that first tenant, in essence, increases across the fiber. The second thing that we see is that as additional carriers come, they colocate on the fiber that we built for the first carrier, and then, they also, at times, want to extend the fiber into new places. We describe that typically as laterals across that base system. And so, as we have colocations over time, it's a combination of extending the plant as well as colocating across the same fiber that's built for that initial tenant. And generally speaking, we find the yield fits a pure colocation, we'll find the yields as we move into the second tenant into the teens. And then, as we get to the third tenant, as we showed you last quarter, we'll be plus 20% oftentimes by the time we get to the third tenant. Some of that mix depends on how many colocations go there, the density with which they go across a given geography of fiber and then, how many laterals do we put in, are we extending the fiber mix. So really, the value proposition there, as we think about it to the carriers, is that the shared infrastructure just like we do with towers and it provides a very cost effective way for them to deploy across that fiber. And then, once the fiber is in the ground, it becomes the speed to market advantage that we have, because we're able to install them on the fiber that we've already deployed for the first carrier.
Jonathan Schildkraut - Evercore ISI:
All right. Thank you.
Operator:
We'll go next to Spencer Kurn with New Street Research.
Spencer H. Kurn - New Street Research LLP (US):
Hey. Thanks for taking the question. Just back on the small cell deals you've been talking about, could you just help me understand how you factor in prepaid rent into that 6% to 7% initial yield you talked about?
Jay A. Brown - President & Chief Executive Officer:
Sure, Spencer. We call it checkbook math around here. So we would think about it as what's the net received after the amount of – the net capital invested, meaning the growth capital we put in day one against any upfront receipts of prepaid rent that we get from the carriers. So that's a sort of net concept of capital investment against the monthly recurring rent that we would receive and then annualize that. So we're looking that as, on a cash yield basis, net investment against annualized margin from the systems that we deploy.
Spencer H. Kurn - New Street Research LLP (US):
Got it. And just to sort of clarify look at your total portfolio, you've talked about investing $3 billion of capital into your total small cell footprint. About how much of that invested capital base would you sort of net out from your prepaid rent denominator?
Jay A. Brown - President & Chief Executive Officer:
Yeah. I would take about $500 million out of that. So net investment is about $2.5 billion.
Spencer H. Kurn - New Street Research LLP (US):
Got it. Thanks. And...
Jay A. Brown - President & Chief Executive Officer:
You write back to about your 6% to 7% yield across that whole base. And keep in mind, we initially started with about $1 billion of that, went in about a 3% initial yield. So of the $2.5 billion, about 40% of that went it at about a 3% yield. The rest of it would have gone in, in the ballpark of about a 6% to 7%. So we've driven the entire investment up to 6% to 7% total return there, which sort of speaks to, as Dan mentioned earlier, if you look at the incremental return, if you just take Q1, look at the incremental capital we invested during the quarter, and then, see what the returns on that capital are, you can see why the base of the overall capital and the increase on yield has occurred over time, we're continuing to see that happen in the sequential results.
Spencer H. Kurn - New Street Research LLP (US):
Thanks. And just one housekeeping question. You closed TDC and that added about $8 million of, site leasing revenue to your tower business sequentially. I noticed that revenue only increased $3 million sequentially for towers and I'm sort of curious why it didn't go up by more.
Daniel K. Schlanger - Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer:
We actually included the TDC in our prior outlook. So if you look at – we included that and so the site rental revenues were up from – and our – the outlook we had last quarter. And so, this is just in and above what TDC was.
Spencer H. Kurn - New Street Research LLP (US):
Yeah. I was actually talking about reported results from Q1 to Q2.
Daniel K. Schlanger - Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer:
No. We have a combination of – we had – did one-time items in the first quarter and then...
Spencer H. Kurn - New Street Research LLP (US):
Got it.
Daniel K. Schlanger - Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer:
...the net impact of churn I think is probably going to reconcile you the balance of the way, Spencer.
Spencer H. Kurn - New Street Research LLP (US):
Great. Thank you.
Operator:
We'll go next to Michael Bowen with Pacific Crest.
Michael Bowen - Pacific Crest Securities:
Okay. Thank you very much. Most of my questions have been answered, and I'm sorry if I missed this one, but back with regard to the small cells, can you talk a little bit about whether you think you're seeing or will see a little bit more demand either from a coverage or a capacity standpoint for small cells, as we go forward, or am I not thinking about it the right way?
Jay A. Brown - President & Chief Executive Officer:
No. You are. I think we'll see – typically, what I would say is that it's going to be a capacity issue that would be the biggest driver of what we're doing for small cells. There are places where there's virtually no coverage today from macro sites. And so, we're going in and covering an area where there's no coverage. But typically, where these small cells are going is there's a capacity issue where there's a macro site providing, we often think about it as an overlay and an underlay strategy. So there's a macro site that's providing good coverage, but from a capacity standpoint or a latency standpoint, the carriers utilize small cells to underlay that macro sites and increase the capacity of both the macro sites as well as using of small cells to increase the capacity of their overall network. So they're synergistic in their usage in those cases.
Michael Bowen - Pacific Crest Securities:
All right. Thank you.
Operator:
We'll go next to Timothy Horan with Oppenheimer.
Timothy Horan - Oppenheimer & Co., Inc. (Broker):
Thanks, guys. Historically, Ben used to talk about kind of charging for space and weight on the towers. If I'm reforming spectrum and I'm using existing equipment, do I have to pay more and I guess same thing if I'm using new spectrum. Maybe just how the pricing model has shifted a little bit and it would seem fairly complicated to kind of do this on every location. So would you expect to see more master lease agreements or new master lease agreements at some point?
Jay A. Brown - President & Chief Executive Officer:
Tim, the pricing model hasn't changed. So we continue to charge customers if they pick up space and weight on the towers. And I think your question is, you could say if there's a theoretical answer where the carriers could literally reutilize the space in a different way, there may not be additional rent for that. That's not been our experience over a long period of time. Typically, if they deploy additional spectrum or new spectrum bands on new equipment, they do make modifications to the site in order to improve the coverage or the capacity of the site and that's what results in additional rent to us, and frankly, we haven't seen that behavior change.
Timothy Horan - Oppenheimer & Co., Inc. (Broker):
Great. And do you think that will drive master lease agreements at some point given all the changes occurring?
Jay A. Brown - President & Chief Executive Officer:
I wouldn't necessarily dismiss it as never going to happen again. There was a point in time where the conditions were, I think, very favorable for us to strike a transaction like that where the carriers knew they were going to touch – or several of the carriers knew they were going to touch all of their existing sites. And so, they were willing to pay us for an amendment across all of the sites in order to accomplish that. If those conditions were right, from a financial return standpoint, those transactions worked out very well for us. But we don't have any today and, frankly, I wouldn't necessarily tell you that we would expect for those to occur again. But I would also say based on the value that we received from the transactions that we did previously, if there was a similar opportunity, we would certainly study it closely and figure out what the best approach was.
Timothy Horan - Oppenheimer & Co., Inc. (Broker):
And then, lastly, just a follow-up to David's first question. With the towers, have you seen any of your competitors willing to lower prices or do more term and volume contracts at lower prices or any new entrants in which clearly seems to be what the carriers want? But have you seen any of that activity?
Jay A. Brown - President & Chief Executive Officer:
We haven't seen anything of any material in nature. As I referenced earlier, if you look at where we're building towers which is very few today, there have been people who've been willing to come into the space, because they wanted to start a tower business or expand a tower business. And so, they've been willing to do tower builds at economics that aren't really attractive for us to go build sites. Those occurred though in places where there is not existing coverage and most likely to occur in places where there's a new neighborhood in the suburban location. And we just choose not to pursue those given the low returns.
Timothy Horan - Oppenheimer & Co., Inc. (Broker):
Very helpful. Thank you.
Operator:
We'll go next to Walter Piecyk with BTIG.
Walter Piecyk - BTIG LLC:
Thanks. Can you just refresh our memory or at least my memory on why you guys stopped reporting nodes for small cells? Because it seems like that would be a pretty interesting metric to look at as far as nodes per mile and see how that business has ramped, or maybe otherwise, could you provide some sense of how many nodes you guys are adding per year?
Jay A. Brown - President & Chief Executive Officer:
Yeah, Walter. We talked about this a little bit last quarter. And I think some of it was confusion around the nomenclature of what does a node mean. And so, we tried to focus the conversation much more on revenues and yields to show the return. I wouldn't dismiss the idea that, at some point over time, maybe we do come up with a way to show that in a way that makes sense. But what we found when we were disclosing it was it actually was not very helpful for people in building their models, and frankly, caused people to draw conclusions that we weren't consistent with the kind of the financial returns. And so, that was the reason why we stopped doing it. Over time, maybe the nomenclature becomes a little more subtle and maybe there is a way to help with that, but I think in the short term, you'll see us continue to focus on talking about this in terms of financial returns. And then, what you can see, as Dan mentioned in his earlier comments, by looking at the numbers on a sequential basis, you can see with the mix of colocations and anchor builds, you can see those incremental returns being driven.
Walter Piecyk - BTIG LLC:
Okay. And then, just kind of more of a 10,000-foot question. Can you give us – I mean I know it's early stage, right, Verizon is probably ramping up and other guys are at their even earlier stages. Can you give us a sense of like what the mix is of those service providers selecting someone like yourselves versus maybe doing a build on their own. And then, as that particular customer or type of customer progresses, I would think there might be some bias to shift more towards building your own, as there are vendors kind of like a (57:17) or whoever get a little bit more expertise which they don't have today, that they might want to shift that direction. Have you seen that with Verizon or again from 10,000 feet, kind of where are we today and where do you think we're going to be in that mix five years from now?
Jay A. Brown - President & Chief Executive Officer:
I would probably describe it pretty similar to what we saw in the tower business over a long period of time is that the carriers will self-perform in some cases, and then, you'll have an independent provider of the infrastructure that will do it in other cases. Haven't really seen the dynamics of that change in the market over the last couple of years. Big picture today, we're probably somewhere in the neighborhood of about half of the activity that gets put out by the carriers. We're winning about half of that business. The pie is growing quickly as multiple providers are now focused on this. So – but the ballpark, I would tell you, we're about 50% of the market. The other 50% would be a combination of self-performed by the carriers, and then, other providers winning RFPs. And we, obviously, don't have to have a 50% win rate in order for this, the business, to be interesting to us. It's really around where you have the infrastructure and then what's the incremental returns from there. Again, back to the earlier conversation, which I think is really important, as we think about this business and compare it to towers is, we believe that a shared solution is the lowest cost solution for the carriers. And we provide that solution for the carriers at a cost lower than what they could do themselves. A combination of that is our own low cost of access to capital, which we have the expertise which we have so we can get it done faster and more cost effectively, just in terms of cost of the deployment. And then, by sharing it with multiple parties, the entire return and justification for that investment doesn't have to be driven by one carrier. And that model has held out very well in towers and we see the same dynamics in small cells and believe it will continue.
Walter Piecyk - BTIG LLC:
Understood. And then, on the 50% – the other 50%, you were basically including other people like yourselves. So do you have a sense of, on self-performed, is that like 10%, 20%? And I'm just curious in your five years (59:40) – to pick any timeframe you want five years, 10 years, 15 years too (59:43) even where that self-perform rate, is that go down, up or is it kind of stay where it is now?
Jay A. Brown - President & Chief Executive Officer:
I feel like to speculate on that, we'd almost be able to step into what the carriers are going to do and what they're going to invest in sort of the core asset versus maybe non-core infrastructure assets. So I'd probably let them opine on that. We feel good about the value proposition that we provide to them, and then, they'll have start to make their choice over time in terms of how much they want to self-perform.
Walter Piecyk - BTIG LLC:
Great. Thank you very much.
Jay A. Brown - President & Chief Executive Officer:
You bet. Maybe we have time for one more question, operator.
Operator:
Okay. Our last question comes from Matthew Niknam with Deutsche Bank.
Matthew Niknam - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Hey, guys. Thanks for squeezing me in. So just two if I could. First, on FirstNet, if you could just give us any updates on the latest you're hearing and timing-wise, when you think this may be potential revenue driver? And then, just one last one small cells, specifically around the cost side, rental expenses were actually down $3 million sequentially. Just trying to figure out what drove that, and then, on the SG&A side, it's fairly stable sequentially. Do you think we can maintain this sort of similar pacing as the business ramps? Thanks.
Jay A. Brown - President & Chief Executive Officer:
Matthew, I don't have any insight on FirstNet beyond what you would have. I think best case scenario, this is a late 2017 early 2018, before it starts to affect our revenues, based on all of the public commentary. But I frankly don't have any insight baseball behind what you would read and know. I think we continue to believe that, over time, there will be a first responder network that's constructed whether that's at the federal level or at the local level. The legacy systems are aging and there's a real need for it and that we believe the deployment of that system, and then, any of the constructs that are currently being talked about and/or possibilities, any of those constructs would be good for the tower industry and for us particularly. On the second question, costs did pick up a little bit sequentially. They're in small cells. And I think when you get to that level of granularity, I wouldn't necessarily point to anything that's indicative of what's going on in the business. What you're going to find over time is as we build new anchor systems and there's mix of anchor and colocations, you may see a little bit of volatility up and down sort of quarter to quarter, but in total, the economics are hanging there as we expected. On the G&A comment, I would go back to my prior bigger picture comment. First quarter G&A, it looks to us likely it's going to be the run rate for the balance of the year and we're not seeing really any meaningful movements there. Back to the more bigger picture comments that we're asked around what the opportunity is around small cells, obviously, if we were to find more opportunities or ramp up the investment that we're making in that space, then we would need to increase the G&A, but that G&A would come with returns as we've seen in the past. So it will be a function of the activity that we see and the opportunity to invest capital.
Jay A. Brown - President & Chief Executive Officer:
Well, with that, maybe I'll wrap up the call. Thank you, everyone, for joining this morning. As you heard on the call, the story is the same as it's been for a long period of time. We're focused on growing cash flows in the business and growing the dividend. And we'll get back to work and look forward to talking to you next quarter about the results. Talk to you soon.
Operator:
That does conclude today's conference. We thank you for your participation.
Executives:
Son Nguyen - Vice President, Finance and Investor Relations Ben Moreland - Chief Executive Officer Jay Brown - Chief Financial Officer Dan Schneider - Senior Vice President
Analysts:
Simon Flannery - Morgan Stanley Brett Feldman - Goldman Sachs Phil Cusick - JPMorgan David Barden - Bank of America Jonathan Atkin - RBC Capital Markets Ric Prentiss - Raymond James Matthew Heinz - Stifel Amir Rozwadowski - Barclays Michael Rollins - Citi Colby Synesael - Cowen Spencer Kurn - New Street Research Matt Niknam - Deutsche Bank Walter Piecyk - BTIG Nick Del Deo - MoffettNathanson Michael Bowen - Pacific Crest Batya Levi - UBS
Operator:
Good day and welcome to the Crown Castle Q1 2016 Earnings Call. Today’s call is being recorded. At this time, I would like to turn the call over to Son Nguyen. Please go ahead, sir.
Son Nguyen:
Thank you, Melanie, and good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us today as we review our first quarter 2016 results. With me on the call this morning are Ben Moreland, Crown Castle’s Chief Executive Officer; Jay Brown, Crown Castle’s Chief Financial Officer; and Dan Schneider, Crown Castle’s Senior Vice President. To aid the discussion, we have posted supplemental materials in the Investors section of our website at crowncastle.com which we will refer to throughout the call this morning. This conference call will contain forward-looking statements, which are subject to certain risks, uncertainties and assumptions and actual results may vary materially from those expected. Information about potential factors which could affect our results is available in the press release and the risk factors section for the company’s SEC filings. Our statements are made as of today, April 22, 2016 and we assume no obligation to update any forward-looking statements. In addition, today’s call includes discussion of certain non-GAAP financial measures. Tables reconciling these non-GAAP financial measures are available in the supplemental information package in the Investors section of the company’s website at crowncastle.com. With that, I will turn the call over to Jay.
Jay Brown:
Thanks, Son and good morning, everyone. As highlighted on Slide 3, our first quarter results exceeded the midpoint of our first quarter outlook and allowed us to raise our full year 2016 outlook. Our increased midpoint for full year 2016 outlook for AFFO per share of $4.70 represents an increase of over 9% compared to 2015. During the quarter, we also strengthened our balance sheet by accessing the bond market with our inaugural investment grade issuance. This was another successful step in our effort to lower our cost of debt and equity capital. Operationally, we continue to invest in both small cells and towers, which we believe will drive future growth. These continued investments, together with our portfolio of approximately 40,000 towers and 16,500 miles of fiber supporting small cell deployments position us as the leading U.S. wireless infrastructure provider with unique capabilities and aspects to provide network solution throughout the country and across a variety of different network architectures. Shifting to the first quarter results on Slide 4, site rental revenue grew 9%. The organic site rental revenue growth of $55 million represents growth of 8% year-over-year comprised of approximately 7% growth from new leasing activity and 3% from cash escalations, net of approximately 2% from tenant non-renewals. Moving to Slide 5, our first quarter results for site rental gross margin, adjusted EBITDA, AFFO and AFFO per share exceeded the midpoint of our previously provided first quarter 2016 outlook. Site rental gross margin benefited from approximately $1 million of one-time items that were not expected in the previously provided outlook comprised of a benefit to site rental revenues of approximately $4 million and offset by an increase to site rental cost of operations of $3 million. Additionally, AFFO for the first quarter 2016 benefited from $10 million and lower than expected sustaining capital expenditures, which is due to timing as full year 2016 outlook for sustaining capital expenditures remains unchanged. Excluding the benefit of these non-recurring and timing items, we still would have exceeded the midpoint of our previously provided first quarter 2016 outlook for each of these metrics. Turning to the investment activities during the first quarter, we invested $193 million in capital expenditures, of which $10 million was sustaining capital expenditures and $183 million was discretionary investments. Consistent with our proactive approach to producing stable and growing cash flow over time, we invested $21 million in land purchases to further strengthen our control of the ground interest underneath our towers. Today, nearly 80% of our tower site rental gross margin is generated from towers on land we own or control from more than 20 years. Additionally, the average term remaining on our ground leases is over 30 years. The balance of our discretionary investments, were in revenue generating capital expenditures. A significant portion of this investment was in our small cell business, which today consists of 16,500 miles of fiber supporting approximately $385 million in annualized site rental revenues or approximately 12% of our consolidated site rental revenues. We are as excited as we have ever been by the opportunities in small cell. Our small cell conversations with the carriers have increasingly become more positive with the passage of time and we are seeing the business model of small cells play out very similarly to that of towers. To that end, we thought it would be helpful to walk through two case studies that illustrate the co-location economics of small cells as the fiber infrastructure is shared among multiple carriers over time. On Slide 6, we lay out one of our systems in Denver. The initial system consisted of 14 miles of fiber connecting 18 tenant nodes on 18 poles for the first carrier. On the slide, the lines represent fiber that we own and the circles represent tenant nodes. We define the node as a tenant location that generates revenue and a pole as a physical structure on which we install the carrier’s broadcast equipment. The picture shows a representative physical structure under which tenant nodes have been installed. Since the initial build-out, we have successfully added two additional wireless carriers to the system, which now consists of 17 miles of fiber connecting 65 tenant nodes supported on 26 poles located in the public right-of-way. In aggregate, the system currently generates a yield of approximately 20% based on the recurring cash flows and the capital we invested in the system. As you can see with the system, we have been able to leverage the initial investment by co-locating additional tenant nodes on the fiber to drive our returns. Turning to Slide 7, this is the system we have in Las Vegas. This system consist of 36 miles of fiber supporting 77 tenant nodes deployed on 77 poles for two carriers, generating a yield of approximately 13%. In addition, we are currently working with a third carrier to co-locate nodes on this fiber network and anticipate adding that first carrier to this system in the next 6 months. Unlike the Denver example, where the majority of the co-location of tenant nodes occurred on the same pole as the first carrier, in this example, the co-location occurred at different pole locations along the existing fiber. Because the majority of the investment relates to deploying fiber, our yields increased by co-locating additional nodes on our fiber regardless of whether the co-location occurs on the same pole or on another pole along the fiber. This is why we often describe the fiber as a tower laid on its side, upon which we are aiming to co-locate tenant nodes. As we look at our entire small cell business, co-location of our fiber networks have driven a meaningful improvement to the yields initially generated on the systems we acquired or constructed over the last several years. Given the returns we are seeing from small cells, we believe our continued investments are consistent with our strategy of allocating capital to drive long-term growth and dividends per share. Returning to investments and financing activities. Subsequent to the quarter and as previously announced, we acquired TDC for approximately $461 million in cash. The TDC portfolio consisted of 336 towers located in the U.S. and Puerto Rico. Based on TDC’s run-rate contribution, the transaction is immediately accretive to AFFO per share. Consistent with our long health capital allocation philosophy, we intend to pursue discretionary investment opportunities such as TDC and small cells that we believe will drive long-term growth and dividends per share. Continuing with financing activities, during the quarter, we paid a quarterly common stock dividend of $0.885 per share or $298 million in the aggregate. In January, we closed on our current $4.5 billion unsecured credit facility and issued $1.5 billion in unsecured notes. These attractive debt transactions highlight the appeal of Crown Castle’s high quality cash flows and strong business model. Moving on to our full year 2016 outlook on Slide 8, we have increased our expectations at the midpoint for site rental revenues by $45 million, site rental gross margin by $31 million, adjusted EBITDA by $25 million and AFFO by $24 million. The increase in our full year outlook reflects the strong results from the first quarter, the inclusion of our TDC acquisition and the timing benefit related to tenant non-renewals occurring later than we previously expected. It is important to note that our overall expectations for the number of tenant non-renewals in the aggregate remain unchanged. On a per share basis, AFFO is expected to be $4.70 at the midpoint compared to $4.30 in 2015, representing an increase of over 9% year-over-year. As you will hear from Ben, we believe that we are well positioned to capitalize on the long-term positive industry fundamentals that we expect will position us to achieve our stated goal of delivering compound annual growth of 6% to 7% in AFFO and dividends per share. Lastly, I am excited to welcome Dan Schlanger to the Crown Castle team. Dan will step into the Chief Financial Officer role on June 1. He is a great addition to the team with his unique combination of financial and operational experience. And with that, I will turn it over to Ben.
Ben Moreland:
Thanks Jay. Thanks for everyone joining us on the call this morning. As Jay mentioned, we are ahead of plan to deliver on our stated goal of generating AFFO per share and dividends per share compound annual growth of 6% to 7% organically, which remains our long-term view. Our expectation is based on the intersection of two things; anticipated exponential growth and demand for wireless connectivity, and our unique portfolio of towers and small cells that can help carriers address their network needs. On this first point, according to Cisco, U.S. mobile data consumption grew 56% in 2015 compared to 2014. The year-over-year growth alone represents a staggering amount of data consumption. It is almost equivalent to all the mobile data that crossed the cellular networks in 2013. Importantly as we look out to the future, this growth is expected to continue. U.S. mobile data consumption is projected to increase six-fold between 2015 and 2020, a compound annual growth rate of 47% or roughly doubling every 2 years. Given these projections and consistent with carrier commentary, we expect the carriers to continue to invest on a consistent basis to maintain and improve network quality. According to our recent survey conducted by a consulting firm Accenture, 60% of residents were dissatisfied – respondents were dissatisfied with their wireless connectivity and experience, while 71% of respondents would be willing to pay more for better connectivity. Against this backdrop, network quality is a competitive necessity as carriers seeks to retain existing customers, attract new customers and drive further subscriber economics. Equally as important, network quality is a prerequisite as carriers seek to develop new revenue streams and use cases such as over-the-top video, machine-to-machine connection, smart city management and fixed wireless broadband. As we move beyond connecting people and connecting things, the reliability of networks become even more critical. The latency capacity and coverage required for connected cars or for smart cities that manage traffic and energy grids using mobile sensors where connections need to work everywhere all the time is much different than managing a network against dropped calls. The higher threshold of reliability and the corresponding need for network densification suggest that we are in the midst of a sustained investment cycle by the carriers. Across towers and small cells, we have a unique combination of assets and expertise that positions Crown Castle to assist the wireless carriers in densifying their networks regardless of geography or network topology. As the leading U.S. shared wireless infrastructure provider, Crown Castle is assisting wireless carriers in this endeavor by providing them with speed to market and cost effective access to wireless infrastructure. Our portfolio of approximately 40,000 towers with 72% located in the top 100 markets remains the first option in improving network quality, given towers efficiency and cost effectiveness. With our existing base of over 80,000 tenant installations, we believe there is a long runway of growth opportunities via amendments as tenants add more capacity to their existing installations. Further, with an average tenancy of 2.2 tenants per tower, which effectively puts us at 40% to 50% occupancy, given the addressable market of the big four wireless carriers plus a host of other tenant opportunities, there are significant opportunities for new co-location as carriers work to increase network capacity by adding additional cell sites. We are further expanding the size of this opportunity by our investment in small cells, which is the natural extension of the carrier’s network densification efforts needed to address network capacity. When presented with the challenge of providing continuous, consistent high capacity, wireless broadband service across urban and suburban geographies, carriers are increasingly turning to small cells as an essential tool to improve their networks, as illustrated in the Denver and Las Vegas examples that Jay discussed. With small cells, we are investing in a business model that shares the same shared economic model as towers and we are encouraged by what we are seeing. Longer term, we believe we are well positioned to capture a significant share of this larger market opportunity by focusing our investment in the top metro markets, we believe our fiber footprint of over 16,000 miles is in the right locations with the capacity necessary to support significant small cell deployments longer term. We believe this critical combination of location and capacity facilitates system deployments with time to market and economic advantages. To support the growth in small cells over the last several years, we have also built an organization that can execute at scale. Our team’s deep RF fiber and real estate management skills and capabilities allow us to offer our customers a turnkey solution, a service level and value proposition that we believe is the best in the industry. While small cells are providing the much needed additional network capacity, towers continue to play an important role in providing the first layer of coverage and capacity in an increasingly mobile world. In addition to bolstering network capacity through additional spectrum and cell sites, whether through towers or small cells, future networks are expected to add capacity by improving network architecture through increasing interconnectedness. As the only wireless infrastructure provider that can offer tower and small cells solutions at scale, we believe we are in excellent position to capitalize on the future evolution of the wireless networks through the extension of our shared infrastructure model, a model that continues to efficiently serve carrier needs and provide a compelling total return proposition of dividends and growth for shareholders. Before wrapping up, I would like to extend my welcome to Dan Schlanger who is joining the team as CFO at June 1, as Jay mentioned, as we move forward with our announced succession plan with Jay Brown moving to CEO and my move to Executive Vice Chairman. I am confident that our executive management team will continue to execute our business plan performing for customers and shareholders under Jay’s leadership. Finally, I want to thank all my colleagues at Crown Castle who have worked so hard to achieve what we have accomplished. These men and women are true professionals. As their primary spokesman on these calls over the last 8 years, it has been my privilege to report to you their latest accomplishments every 90 days. And I am confident there are many more accomplishments to come. With that, operator, we would be pleased to address some questions.
Operator:
Thank you. [Operator Instructions] We will go first to the Simon Flannery with Morgan Stanley.
Simon Flannery:
Great. Thank you very much. Thanks for all the color on small cells and breaking out the segment information, that’s very helpful. I wonder if you could just talk about the overall leasing environment, we did see Verizon’s CapEx and wireless down 9.5%, although they did comment about keeping the full year sort of back-end loaded. Is that what you are seeing here from the carriers broadly? And related to that, on the tenant non-renewals, do you have clarity now about the timing of those disconnects or is it still possible that there will be further pushing out of this? Thanks.
Jay Brown:
Sure, Simon. On the first question around the leasing environment, as we talked about over the last couple of calls, our view is that leasing activity in the full year ‘16 is going to be very similar to what we saw in 2015 and we continue to hold that view. The guide that we have provided was based upon how we outperformed in the first quarter along with our view that the tenant non-renewals were going to occur a little later in the year and that’s really what changed in our outlook. So, our view of activity is about the same. Similar to past years, the other thing I would note is that if you look at our total new leases that we would expect during the course of the year and that will be a combination of new leases on towers as well as amendments to existing leases, that activity is about 40% in the first half of the year and about 60% in the second half of the year. So it’s back-end loaded, but in about the same way that as we typically find in the business. On your second question about the non-renewals, our view is that in total from consolidation churn that we have talked about over the last several years, in total, we think that amount is about the same as it was previously. So, we have moved out portions of that. Some portion of that we moved to 2017 and the balance of it we moved to periods that are beyond 2017. So, at the moment, our view would be the total non-renewal stays about the same. We are just pushing it up to the right a little bit. There is more details in the supplement people would like to see how we moved each of those on our view in each of the calendar years, but I would say overall we think it’s about the same total amount of non-renewals.
Simon Flannery:
Great, thank you.
Jay Brown:
Yes.
Operator:
We will go next to Brett Feldman with Goldman Sachs.
Brett Feldman:
Thanks. Just a quick question to start, I just noticed you generated about $113 million from discontinued ops on your cash flow statement, just start to give a little color on what was the source of that?
Jay Brown:
That’s Australia, last year.
Brett Feldman:
Is there anymore to come or is that a final earn-out?
Jay Brown:
That would be the final amount.
Brett Feldman:
Okay. And then looking at the disclosures, which are very appreciated on small cells versus towers, if you look at the cost structure of the small cell business, it does look like year-on-year your costs are going a bit faster than your revenues. I know that’s probably impacted somewhat by the Sunesys deal, but could you maybe just give us a little color on where you are in terms of establishing sort of a fixed level of G&A or anything we can think about to kind of model the operating leverage we should expect from small cells from this point forward? Thanks.
Jay Brown:
Sure, Brett. I think at the site gross margin line obviously as you bring on the new systems, we are going to bring on new costs. And so those margins are somewhat representative. But on what you would think of is overhead primarily people and infrastructure, it looks to us like we are getting pretty close to a stabilized run-rate at this current level of activity. Now, I qualify that because to the extent the pipeline would grow materially over time, these are fantastic investments and we have seen productive growth and yield on that investment and it takes additional variable cost in the form of overhead and people. So, I would tell you for modeling purposes we are pretty close as of the Q1 run-rate and less volume changes dramatically.
Ben Moreland:
Yes. I think that specifically if you are trying to do the year-over-year comparison, the step in the costs are obviously mostly related to the Sunesys acquisition, which comes at a lower margin and therefore the costs flow through. If you are looking at the incremental margin, the incremental margins are not going to look as high as what we typically see when we are constructing these small cell systems. So, I think that would be one thing I would raise. And then if you look at the total cost structure for the full year as we talked about last quarter, the G&A in the fourth quarter – third and fourth quarter of last year is about where we expect for the full year 2016. So by the time we exit the year if you look at it on a full year basis, it starts to stabilize but you are still in the effects if you do Q1 ‘15 over Q1 ‘16 as the cost grew throughout calendar year.
Brett Feldman:
Great. Just one last question on costs, are you entering new markets as a small cell operator or are you fairly comfortable with the markets you are in?
Jay Brown:
I would say it for the most part its markets we are already in. I can find you a few new ones, but we are working in the top 25 cities already and that’s where the vast majority of what we are doing. And so you should expect that’s where the most of this is going to be.
Brett Feldman:
Great. Thanks for taking the questions.
Operator:
We will go next to Phil Cusick with JPMorgan.
Phil Cusick:
Hey, guys. Thanks. So, the other side of the gross margin question is it looks like your tower gross margins are calculating a little lower than we would have thought given your peers. What’s driving that the difference or am I just completely missing something?
Jay Brown:
I think there is two components, Phil, that’s driving it. One is as we have discussed the churn is basically offsetting a big portion of the new leasing activity that we are seeing. And then as you look at the GAAP revenue numbers and the segment for towers, you don’t see in those GAAP numbers the benefit of the escalation, the contracted escalation that we have in the business as those are straight-lined over the term of the lease. So, when you go down to the AFFO metric, we get the benefit at the AFFO line of those cash escalations. The other component I would point out is as we have talked about last quarter around some of the fees that we received when tenant non-renewals occur we refer to those commonly as pay and walk fees that we received from the carriers. Last year, there was about $30 million to $40 million of those pay and walk fees in our services business. We don’t expect anywhere close to that scale of activity in calendar year ‘16 as we saw in ‘15. And so as we guided to services, we have guided down in services from the renewable of those kind of fees to the tune of about $30 million to $40 million year-over-year. And so if you are just looking at the tower segment and you are looking at adjusted EBITDA or the segment operating profit, you are going to see mostly impacted from those none – what we would refer to as non-core services activity.
Phil Cusick:
Okay. And then on the other side, long-term, where do you see small cell gross margin, operating margin reaching, how do we compare that to the tower margin?
Ben Moreland:
I think if you looked at an individual system, what you would find is when it gets to three carriers the direct margins from those systems against the direct operating costs those margins are very likely to be higher than what we typically would find with the tower that had three tenants on them. As a part of – as you look at the whole business, there is two things that affect that back to my prior comment about the Sunesys acquisition, obviously, the incremental growth in revenues is going to be offset by the cost that come with an acquisition. So, if we have acquisitions that will impact the totality of the margins in that segment. But the other aspect to it is that we are deploying a meaningful amount of capital to build additional fiber and additional small cell networks. And as we put those systems on air, they are going to tend to mute the growth that we would have. So, there is a bit of a – we often referred to it as like a vintage analysis internally where we look at the systems similar to those that we shared this morning in Denver and Las Vegas that we have had on air for a period of time. As we add those tenants, the direct margins on those systems will look – we believe will look at least as good or if not better than what towers would. But as we look at the totality of the segment, it’s going to depend on how much investment opportunity we have there as to whether or not the full benefit of that co-location flows through to your margins or whether it’s offset by the value of investing in future systems that come on at a lower margin level.
Phil Cusick:
Got it. Thanks.
Ben Moreland:
And most importantly, obviously, is yield on the capital. So, we start off typically at a higher initial yield in the tower and then grow it over time at typically a rate that exceeds the equivalent tenancy on a tower, so that was some of the Jay’s comments around those two case studies.
Phil Cusick:
Thanks, Ben.
Operator:
We will go next to David Barden with Bank of America.
David Barden:
Hey, guys. Thanks for taking the question and welcome to Dan as well. Ben, I was wondering if I could follow-up just on that comment. I think in prior quarters, you have kind of been able to map out the history of the investment in the small cell business to-date. And I noticed that you are now breaking out the CapEx for the small cells, specifically, which would allow us to kind of track that return evolution on a go-forward basis. If you could kind of bring us up to speed on the total capital investment to this point in time kind of as a starting point for 1Q ‘16 that would be kind of a helpful beginning so we can kind of see how that’s evolving. And then second, these slides on the system developments are super helpful, I think in part because they give us some granular node and pole detail, which I think would be super helpful to have to have for the totality of the small cell business, which I noticed is not part of the disclosures anymore. So could kind of give us an update on some of the metrics that go along with these new revenue numbers, would be great? Thank you.
Ben Moreland:
Sure. I think the simplest way Dave, to look at where we are in the business is to annualize sort of the run rate margin in the segment, so 61 times 4, call it $240 million or against $3 billion of capital spend over time. And it’s easier to remember the three because we can remember the two distinct events. One was $1 billion for NextG at about a 4% yield and the Sunesys acquisition last year of $1 billion at about 6% yield. So you can see that the – obviously, the incremental contribution on that last $1 billion is very significant, it’s in the sort of double digits to drag the whole thing up. And that’s illustrated – that’s a macro view and it’s illustrated obviously in Jay’s two case studies we walked through. So it’s a great question and it’s one we look at. It’s probably the number one thing we watch, it’s just are we dragging that overall yield up with that incremental contribution both from new systems and then the co-location that occurs. And as Jay said, it’s a long raise because it should bring on new systems to single tenants, it’s a land grab, not unlike the tower business has been. So you are bringing on somewhat lower yields and then I think it grows over time. In terms of metrics, one of the things that we are – and we have not given you a lot more detail we realized around segment reporting, that will probably increase over time. One of the things that Jay was talking about was tenant nodes and that’s why we illustrated these two systems, where you can have tenant nodes locate by themselves on the common fiber. So if you either have them collocated themselves where you have two tenants on one pole or you can have two tenants on two poles. And so the node metric is somewhat confusing or lost and it’s why I think it makes sense to go back to sort of the financials. And then over time, there are various things that we made a slide to discuss would be revenue per fiber mile for example, obviously a key driver. The fiber is the vast majority where the capital goes, and so we are working to find some simple metrics for everyone like we have in the tower business it’s just not quite as simple, but hopefully it’s getting better.
David Barden:
Alright, looking forward to it. Thanks Ben.
Operator:
We will go next to Jonathan Atkin with RBC Capital Markets.
Jonathan Atkin:
Yes. So I was interested in learning a little bit about just the Sunesys contribution to incremental growth if there is any color you can provide there given your legacy lines of business. And then secondly, I was interested in what the competitive environment is around small cells from other fiber rich providers? And then I have got a quick follow-up after that. Thanks.
Jay Brown:
Yes. Jon, on your first question, as we talked about the Sunesys acquisition, our view of that was that was fiber plant that provided an opportunity for us over time to reduce the capital costs required for us to deploy small cells. So we put it into the business and we are not focusing on it as a separate business from our overall small cell business. So the contribution there – frankly, we are much more focused on driving the return as Ben talked about it on the full $3 billion and using that fiber to deploy additional small cells against it. With regards to the competitive environment that we are in, obviously there are a number of folks who look at this business and see it as attractive and concurrent – can obviously see the public comments with the wireless operators they are making about the importance of small cells and how they are necessary to improve their networks along the lines of what Ben’s comments were and the necessity of small cells in order to accomplish the density of networks that are required to meet the consumer’s expectation for devices. And so we do find competition – sometimes that competition comes from more nationally based fiber operators. And then in other times as we are in certain markets, there may be a provider of fiber that’s specific to a single market alone. And so we will run into them as we are going to the process of a request or a proposal from the carriers, where a local provider may be in that process. So at the end of the day, we believe that our opportunity here is based upon our access to a cost of capital and a return on that capital that we think is very attractive given what we have seen over the long period of time that we have been in the tower business. We also believe that we are the best at it. So we have built, in terms of scale, I think unmatched scale and operating capabilities when compared to anyone. And certainly, as we talk to the wireless operators, we make that case. The last thing that I would say in terms of what we run into is the vast majority of this fiber and small cells are purpose built. They need to be in specific locations, long routes where we can install on poles as we showed in some of the pictures and illustrated in some of the cases. And this fiber is very different than – we believe it’s very different than what we have seen historically deployed. And so as we go out and purpose build this fiber, it really – as we are in the process of working with the carriers, that’s where the operational expertise and scale is helpful to us to win those next projects.
Jonathan Atkin:
Thanks. And then on Denver and Las Vegas or any other kind of equivalent examples that you have, where there is two or more tenants, I am just interested about what is it about those deployments that made small cell the right solution for the tenant and did the tenant come off any nearby macro sites as they are located onto your infrastructure?
Jay Brown:
No. In both cases, there are – as you can see from the map, there are locations there that would obviously make sense for towers to be located and there are. And those carriers have macro coverage in both Las Vegas and Denver in those areas. These small cells are largely an opportunity for the carriers to offload some of the data traffic off of the macro site onto a small cell, which improves and enhances the value of the macro site to cover a larger geography. And we have not seen, as we have deployed – as we talk d about nearly $385 million of run rate revenue, we have not seen carriers come off of macro sites. In fact, we believe and from the comments that carriers have made and our own experience was it actually enhances the value of their macro site. So this is a product that enhances their network. It’s not a substitute. And the last point I would make about that is from a cost standpoint, if there is a macro site that solves the problem or the challenge or improves the network, the macro site is always preferable as a solution because it’s much more cost effective to the carriers. So small cells are a solution when macro sites really can’t solve the need and then it becomes a necessary component of the network at that point.
Jonathan Atkin:
Thank you.
Operator:
And we will go next to Ric Prentiss with Raymond James.
Ric Prentiss:
Thanks. Good morning guys.
Ben Moreland:
Hi Ric.
Ric Prentiss:
Hi. Thanks again. We have been pushing a long time for small cells segment, so I much appreciate it. In the no good deed goes on punished category, I am going to ask more questions on it. I appreciate what your comments were about nodes, it’s kind of confusing, but can you help us understand what the pipeline is or what the revenue growth might be on the small cell side, I think previously, maybe like $55 million was kind of the anticipation of what small cell incremental might be in ’16?
Jay Brown:
That’s correct, Ric. We still believe that the contribution to revenue growth was about $55 million. So I made the earlier comments about towers. I actually said the same thing about small cells. Our view of revenue growth is unchanged in terms of what we expect in calendar year ‘16 from the contribution of small cells of about $55 million...
Ric Prentiss:
And as far as, is there any broad tenant per system number, I know you have got a mixture of vintages, but we are also just trying to match on the co-location trends, how best to think of that?
Ben Moreland:
I think maybe over time as we continue to develop and enhance the operational information systems that we have internally and obviously as we broaden the Sunesys acquisition and the growth we have seen in the business, we are working on that. We may come to a place where we have an operating metric that we think is helpful. Frankly, as we manage the business, what’s a little different between small cells and towers is that I wouldn’t describe the rent as much as a standard rent, as what you typically see in towers. The systems are priced and we provide them to the carriers based on a return. And so as we look at the business, we tend to go back to the financials and look at what’s the net capital we are investing in the system against the recurring cash flows in those systems and then how do we price appropriately both the first tenant and then future tenants on those systems. So we have talked about things like you remember back in the early days of the tower business where we have things like the DDEs, which is the broadband equivalent for towers and that was a revenue metric. We just want to make sure that as a focus kind of the next leg of disclosure of the business, have gotten larger that we described it in a way that is helpful. And so we may over time get to a place where we feel like some of those metrics are more helpful. But at the moment, we think probably the best way to focus the attention is around the segment reporting that we provided. And then some of these case studies may be helpful as you start to understand operationally how they are deployed, how the carriers think about them and how we are investing capital in the fiber, against which we are trying to co-locate as many nodes as possible.
Ric Prentiss:
And so we should not be thinking it really as a rent per node, which is the old way more of a yield return base, here is how much we have spend on the network is that what you are suggesting?
Jay Brown:
Exactly, right.
Ben Moreland:
That will get you to the right place.
Ric Prentiss:
Okay. And then as far as – another question on the revenue side, are there escalators baked into the small cell sites here or how does that fit into kind of a return base negotiated price?
Jay Brown:
Yes. Our contract in small cells, are very similar to that of towers where we have an initial term of 10 to 15 years and annual escalations on those revenue streams. Similar to towers, they would be straight lines over the term of the lease and the cash escalations would grow on an annual basis.
Ric Prentiss:
And is that a 3% escalator or 2% escalator, I am just trying to think there has been obviously…
Jay Brown:
Typically it’s about 3% would be the average very similar to towers.
Ric Prentiss:
Alright, last question. I started with so much detail, we are consuming it all, back to Brett’s question on the margin side. It did seem like G&A as a percent of small cell revenues went up sequentially from 4Q to 1Q and you would have thought – we would have thought Sunesys would have been fully baked into 4Q. So, we are just trying to figure out is it really more mid-teens we are talking about or just trying to understand that quarter-to-quarter difference also?
Ben Moreland:
It went up a little bit Q4 to Q1.
Jay Brown:
Yes. I think it’s just as we are building the run-rate and folding in Sunesys, some of the – as we looked at the Sunesys acquisition, some of the expertise as we found in frankly the other acquisitions that we have done over time, we found opportunities for folks that we thought could continue to grow and enhance our business over the long-term. And so we probably ended up retaining a few more folks than what we would have thought initially going into the process. And so as people come out of what would have effectively been the pull-down and rundown of the prior business that we are now folding them into the run-rate on the ongoing small cell segment.
Ric Prentiss:
Right. And no breakout on Sunesys anymore, is that what we should expect?
Jay Brown:
That’s correct.
Ric Prentiss:
Okay, thanks, guys. Ben, good luck becoming what, Vice Chairman of dividend performance.
Ben Moreland:
I will do my best. Thanks.
Operator:
We will go next to Matthew Heinz with Stifel.
Matthew Heinz:
Hi, thanks. Good morning. As a follow-up on the small cell competitive landscape question, I am curious how you see the exclusivity of these systems in a given metro area? And I guess are most of the anchor builds you are doing now kind of the first of their kind in the metro and how much sense would it make for a competitor to come in and put up competing systems in the general vicinity of the ones you have already built?
Ben Moreland:
Sure, Matthew. There is a lot of inherent exclusivity in what we are building and it goes really to the purpose-built nature of the fiber and the very significant capacity and strand count that’s required on these systems today. So, while it’s possible for someone to come in, we don’t have exclusivity obviously – somebody can come overbuild technically. Economically, it doesn’t make any sense. And I would go back to the question of the addressable market and the competitive landscape, it is an enormous world out there obviously when you start looking at the world block by block. And I look at – we are in Houston and I look at Houston today where there is two large systems getting built, one by ourselves and another by competitor and we don’t overlap at all. And so that’s the way these are working kind of all across the country where it makes sense. I think it’s unrealistic on our part to think that the carrier is going to give us 100% of their market share in a particular area that’s as much as we love that to happen. That’s just not realistic. And so we have competitors. They are gaining in terms of their own capability and the economics around the transactions make it such that very much like towers, it just doesn’t make any sense. Once you have the capacity in the market and you have one or two carriers already on that system to come in and essentially duplicate that infrastructure. It’s not already there, I guess is the point and we are having to largely build it or occasionally buy it like we did with Sunesys, where some of you will recall when we bought Sunesys it was only 27% utilized on average in terms of strand count. So, we have a lot of capacity in those metropolitan markets, where Sunesys fiber was and obviously that’s a speed to market advantage and efficiency and around the cost, lot cheaper to buy it with a run-rate than build at scratch.
Matthew Heinz:
That’s very helpful. Thanks. And then the second question, I am wondering how we should think about the services revenue and OpEx you are allocating to small cells. And seeing as it’s coming in at a much lower margin than the tower services revenue is that sales or that revenue primarily coming from carrier reimbursements on the anchor builds?
Jay Brown:
Yes, it’s largely – Matt, it’s largely related to the equipment that gets installed. In some occasions, the carriers will actually have us purchased the equipment – their equipment to the system and then there is a slight markup to that, which is how the margin is generated. As you can see from the numbers, it’s a relatively small contribution of services gross margin, a couple of million dollars. We don’t expect that to grow. It’s very different than what we would expect on the tower side, obviously. So frankly, from a margin standpoint, and I will think that’s interesting, I would tell you that our expectation would be we will probably produce somewhere between $2 million and $10 million a year of margin, but unlikely to be more than that from services margin in the small cell segment.
Matthew Heinz:
Okay. Yes, I mean I guess I was trying to just get a sense where that reimbursement revenue is flowing into and it sounds like the site rental piece is kind of – more of a pure number on where rental dollars are?
Jay Brown:
Correct. That’s correct.
Matthew Heinz:
Okay, thank you.
Operator:
We will go next to Amir Rozwadowski with Barclays.
Amir Rozwadowski:
Thank you very much and good morning, folks.
Ben Moreland:
Good morning, Amir.
Amir Rozwadowski:
Just to dovetail some of the other questions on small cells, just wondering how do you feel about your current asset footprint. I mean as you mentioned this is seemingly like a tower line on its side. Is there potential for you to build out that capacity by additional inorganic means in order to accelerate sort of a build new footprint? And then I have got one follow-up after that.
Ben Moreland:
Yes. Amir, this is Ben. Look, we took a big step with initially NextG, which was a little bit early maybe and has worked out pretty well and then Sunesys last year with the footprint we acquired to a point. We have also done I think two or three smaller just sort of single market deals that made sense based on specific engagements that we have where we can buy versus build. And we are constantly looking at those opportunities, but there is nothing out there on the horizon that’s significant today. But I would tell you when it has to pass the filter of we are supporting wireless infrastructure, first and foremost. We are supporting the wireless sort of broadband capacity build-out that’s happening on the small cell networks. And so that takes us to these top 25 metros typically, which is an enormous geography to cover when you starting think about it that way, again at the block by block level. So, there is just not that many in the universe of sort of addressable targets. We may do a few more, but I wouldn’t say there is anything on the horizon right now that looks like Sunesys.
Amir Rozwadowski:
Thank you very much. And then switching a bit away from the small cell discussion, it seems that there has been a debate at least in the investor community and maybe one of the carrier partners on how to think about the AWS 3 spectrum deployment over the mid to longer term, particularly as to whether or not preexisting either MLAs or preexisting equipment can facilitate the deployment of that spectrum. I would love to hear your thoughts around that. Can this be an opportunity for further amendment revenues as that spectrum gets deployed? And what are you guys thinking in terms of timing?
Jay Brown:
Yes. Amir, I think what I would say to that end and we try to be pretty careful about this over the last several quarters with the carriers. We don’t want to get in front of them in terms of what their network architecture is, and that’s really a question they should speak to how they are thinking about equipment and installations on towers. I would tell you as we look at the activity in total on towers, we think that, that activity, which is going to come from a myriad of sources including the one you referenced, we think that’s about the same level of new leasing activity this year is as what we had last year. That’s a bit elevated from the levels that we saw in 2014. And as we talk about our long-term target, that Ben and I both mentioned that 6% to 7% growth in AFFO and dividend per share on an annual basis. What we have embedded in that is a leasing environment for towers that looks fairly similar to what the environment we are currently in today. And our experience over a long period of time is that as the carriers need or acquire additional spectrum or upgrade their technologies to the newest and latest technology. As the sources of that revenue growth tend to move among the carriers, among the technologies and among the spectrum band, but we see a relatively consistent amount of revenue growth year-to-year. In fact, as you go back over a multi-year period, you can find that the vast majority of the leasing activity in any given year is within a band of about 10% to 20% up or down. And so it gives us a lot of confidence in the business as we think about longer term, our 6% to 7% metric in AFFO growth that it would appear to us our assumption of that current level of leasing growth is a fairly well placed assumption as we look at it through a different – a number of different cycles over a long period of time. So we certainly spend some time watching and having conversations with the carrier about what they are doing specifically with certain technologies. But we will let them to speak for that and we will focus on what we think the impact to kind of revenues are as they take those various actions over time.
Ben Moreland:
And just to finish the thought, for most of you, you have heard me say this many times, that up or down 20% on tower leasing in any given year is about a 1% change in AFFO per share outcome and one of the many reasons we like this business.
Amir Rozwadowski:
Thank you very much for additional color.
Operator:
We will go next to Michael Rollins with Citi.
Michael Rollins:
Thanks. Just a follow-up and then a couple of quick questions, with regards to small cells, is there a way to think about the backlog of revenue relative to capital that’s you either have in turn to service on yet or take time for the customers to kind of grow into the full revenue spend that it’s committed to?
Jay Brown:
Sure. It generally takes us about 18 months to 24 months to build a brand new system. So we have a pipeline that we are currently working on today. It would be in the soft cost stage for systems that we won’t turn on likely until 2017 and 2018. For new tenants, when they are – as they are co-locating on existing systems, that process can take anywhere between 9 months and 18 months depending on the dynamics in the market. And so we have a pipeline of those activities as well. What we are seeing in terms of the revenue growth in small cells this year of $55 million, those would have been projects that we started a number of years ago that are now into the run rate. So I would say, in small cells, we have a little bit more visibility about what the revenue growth is going to look like given the construction timeframe, whether that’s co-location or new system. So we do have a view for that. And back to my prior point, that’s baked into our view of growth of 6% to 7% AFFO per share. So we are assuming that we continue to see the current level of activity over an extended period of time. To the extent that we have opportunities beyond that and we would have to revisit that growth rate. That – our working assumption is that we both invest into the activity that’s in and around the same levels we are currently seeing.
Michael Rollins:
Do you have an update on how the acquisitions, the two big tower portfolios that you acquired over the last few years, how are they doing in terms of growth versus the rest of the portfolio. And then just a final thing I was curious about is just back to the churn questions from earlier in the call. Is there a reason the carriers are giving you for the delay in churn relative to what you anticipate. It seems like that churn keeps getting pushed out, which you get more money in the interim for that. But is there a business reason for it and is part of that may be a possibility that they wanted to keep some of those locations that you would anticipate that they wanted to churn? Thanks again for answering those.
Jay Brown:
Sure Mike. On the AT&T and T-Mobile acquisitions that we did, those towers in terms of their new revenue growth are performing in line with the rest of our towers. So we haven’t seen any meaningful difference in leasing, which was our underwriting assumption going into those acquisitions. In both cases, we assume that we would add about one tenant per tower per year over the first 10 years of ownership. And as we look at our consolidated results, that’s about what we are seeing in terms of new leasing activity across the whole portfolio and we are seeing it pretty consistently across many. On your second question about churn, we have obviously had discussions with the carriers, but again I would like to be careful about – regarding some of those conversations. They have been pretty public about their desire to ramp those legacy networks down. We think the locations are obviously great. And at some point, we are picked specifically for those networks. So there may be the opportunity over time for some of the sites to get renewed. But right now based on what the carriers have both said publicly and indicated to us, we think the best long-term assumption is to say that those sites will eventually not be renewed and so we take that into our outlook.
Michael Rollins:
Thanks very much.
Operator:
We will go next to Colby Synesael with Cowen.
Colby Synesael:
Great. Thank you. Two questions if I may on growth. First now that you are breaking out small cells versus the macros, I was wondering if you can tell us I guess the proximity of organic growth for each of those two business that get us to that 8% that you did in the first quarter. And then also when I look at that 8% as part of that you did 6.8% growth in new leasing activity, but when I look at your guidance for the year, you are assuming it’s just 6%. So obviously, at some point between the next three quarters you are assuming that goes below that number. And when I listened to your response to I think it was Simon’s question, you mentioned that you are still expecting 60% of activity in the back half of the year versus 40% in the first half, so I am trying to understand why you will be going below 6% over the next three quarters to get your guidance versus the 6.8% you just did in the first quarter? Thanks.
Jay Brown:
Sure. On the first question, I think it’s probably a level of granularity that at this point, we haven’t disclosed around organic growth. You can obviously see from the two businesses that the growth on small cells is much higher on a percentage basis than that of towers, which in part comes from the fact that we are coming off a much lower base. And so if we add tenant nodes across the systems, that’s going to result in higher percentage growth. With regards to the 6.8% moving down towards 6% over the course of the year, we look at the business and find it to be helpful to look at it much more on a year-over-year basis rather than taking into kind of quarter-to-quarter as there can be things, whether it’s the timing of the non-tenant, non-renewals or the timing of leasing, that impacts that. And you brought up exactly the right point when you referenced my earlier comments to Simon about 40% in the first half of the year and 60% in the back half of the year. What happened in past years as 60% of the leasing activity went on the towers late in the balance of 2015, those come into the run rate obviously, it’s on reported numbers, whether that GAAP numbers or the organic metrics that we have. Those won’t show up until basically the first quarter in fulsome this year. So that has some impact to those numbers. And as we go over the course of the year the licenses and I was specifically referring to the new leases that we would do with carriers over the course of the year. Those leases that we have signed in the fourth quarter of this year will have very little to no impact to site rental revenue in this calendar year. Those will just be in the run rate as we go into next calendar year. So there is some balancing over time that leads to those differences. The other thing I would point out is just – you have just got the law of large numbers also. So as we move through this over time from a percentage basis, we are going to lose somewhere in the neighborhood of about 40 basis points assuming a constant level of activity, 40 basis points to 50 basis points on the revenue growth number from an activity standpoint and that’s why we spend so much time talking about $115 million of nominal growth. And on the tower side that’s really the best indication of what the activity doing either up or down from kind of that baseline number. So the percentage change is a combination of looking at quarters and trying to figure out what does it look like period-to-period and then also the law of large numbers.
Colby Synesael:
Great. Thank you.
Ben Moreland:
And probably also we should speak to the 6% to 7% longer term view on AFFO is inclusive of the headwind from the law of large numbers and why you would come off a higher year this year, 9% in the guidance. And then over time, when we look at coming in next year for example at things, that’s sort of a fully baked number that includes the inherent accretion from making smart capital allocation decisions that drive that over time. Do we have another question?
Operator:
We will go next to Spencer Kurn with New Street Research.
Spencer Kurn:
Hey. Thanks for taking the question. So are you seeing any competition from cable companies in your small cell markets and could you sort of elaborate on what exactly is so different about the purpose-based fiber that you are deploying for small cells versus the existing fiber in a lot of those markets? I know cable has been leveraging their fiber for Wi-Fi hotspots, which seems pretty similar to what carriers would need for a small cell. But yes, I would love some – I’d love to hear your thoughts on what’s different and why you have right to it? Thanks.
Jay Brown:
Sure. The cable companies in various markets would be in the list of competitors. From time to time, we run across them. And in particular, your question has been around the uniqueness of the fiber, it really goes to the capacity and the fact that all the cable plant, whether they dedicate it to either sort of cable or enterprise is experiencing dramatic growth in bandwidth requirements across the universe. And as we look at what these small sales require in terms of typically a distributing tennis system architecture takes a pair of strands for every node. That’s a very – essentially like a dark fiber connection. That’s a very significant burden to put on existing plant in many markets. And so certainly, there are some, like we found Sunesys that had capacity. Obviously, we moved on that. But as a general matter, it’s not uniform and it’s not interchangeable. And so you really have to look at it almost block by block, city by city where we have an engagement and where we can take advantage of existing fiber either through leasing something occasionally or acquiring it, we will, but that’s in the vast minority except for the footprint we acquired with Sunesys. So, that’s probably not as clear as we can be. Appreciate that bandwidth requirements for all connectivity is going up not just wireless.
Spencer Kurn:
Great, thank you.
Operator:
We’ll go next to Matt Niknam with Deutsche Bank.
Matt Niknam:
Hi, guys. Thank you for taking the questions. Two if I could. One on small cells, some public comments from two of the four nationals has obviously talked about a bigger focus on small cells for densification this year. Without getting too specific around carriers, can you maybe just talk about whether others are indicating interest in deploying small cells more materially as part of the near-term network strategy? And then secondly, on the macro side, in light of the TDC deal, what’s the latest you are seeing on the acquisition pipeline on the macro site front, both in terms of available assets and valuations in the market? Thanks.
Jay Brown:
Yes, I think on the first question, we obviously showed – we showed two systems there. We tried not to pick actually the best systems that we had, but we tried to pick some that we thought were somewhat representative as the markets develop. And we have got three carriers on one of those and a third carrier going on in the next – inside of the next 6 months. So, we are seeing activity from all four of the operators on small cells and the business and contribution of the revenue from that business is not being driven solely by one carrier any longer. So, we are seeing good diversity of revenues and opportunities with the carriers and think that will continue.
Ben Moreland:
We also try to pick two examples that were a little counterintuitive, because we have all – we can always envision a CBD market where that would be sort of the urban core these being out in a more suburban environment indicate the scope of the opportunity out there and the addressable market is enormous.
Jay Brown:
On the acquisition pipeline, from time to time, we may find an opportunity that makes sense to acquire and roll some towers in. TDC was bit of a unique circumstance for us. That was a firm that we partnered with back in the 2008, 2009 timeframe to go out and build towers and acquire some towers and then we had an option to call those assets in at an appropriate – what we thought was an appropriate financial return at some future date. So, we exercised a call option that we had in that transaction. We see towers from time to time trade, but they are relatively small acquisition. And frankly, most of the capital as we have had opportunities to deploy it outside of the TDC acquisition, which I would describe is a bit unique. We focus most of our efforts and capital investment on small cells and have not seen attractive multiples in the tower space recently.
Matt Niknam:
And just one quick follow-up on small cells, in the past, you have talked about the split between new leasing and colo activity about 75:25 split. Has that changed at all of late?
Jay Brown:
It’s about the same currently, about 75% new systems that we are building and then about 25% co-location.
Matt Niknam:
Okay, thank you.
Operator:
And we will go next to Walter Piecyk with BTIG.
Walter Piecyk:
Thanks. I just have couple of questions on Slide 6. The dots that are there, are those cutting directly into the fiber underneath them? Should we just assume that there is no run and that cuts right into the fiber?
Jay Brown:
They would have a tail-off of that. I think if I understand your question correctly, they would have a tail off of that node like similar to the picture that we are showing that would go down to the fiber run, which would be in the street.
Walter Piecyk:
But directly underneath them, so if there’s not dots, they are patching into the same location along that run, right?
Jay Brown:
That’s correct. That’s correct.
Walter Piecyk:
Great. Second question is by the scale it looks like they are about three quarters of a mile away from each other. Is that not enough for coverage or is there an opportunity for the carriers to add additional – I am just going to call them dots because on the map, dots along those lines?
Jay Brown:
There is. And as Ben just mentioned a second ago about how we take these examples, if we were to show this in a central business district, if we were to show you even New York City and the systems that we have deployed in New York, you would see that those nodes are much closer together than three quarters of a mile.
Ben Moreland:
Like every corner.
Jay Brown:
And so it really depends on density of population, the amount of traffic that would be required in order to provide the solution.
Walter Piecyk:
Right. So then in the case of New York City, this would look more like a crisscross given the population density and the buildings and things like that, correct?
Jay Brown:
That’s correct. And over time, you will likely have densification over time even on these systems. So as the load continues to grow, you will have more on an existing system.
Ben Moreland:
And one other point just to the earlier questions about kind of metrics and how to look at this example is also helpful if you would compare a central business district. The cost of deploying that fiber is significantly more expensive too. So you can’t look at a system like what we have laid out in Denver or Las Vegas. If you just looked at a node per mile, you would expect to have fewer nodes per mile, that may deliver the same yield as meaningfully denser nodes per mile in the central business district and that would come down to cost and rent and other things which we negotiate with the carriers in each system based on the cost and needed return.
Walter Piecyk:
Excellent. The third question is just on – and the last question if anyone was worried is on the picture. The text on that says represented a pole with two tenant nodes, other small cell providers have indicated that even on a single carrier, there is multiple of those boxes that are required just to use all of their spectrum, so are you representing that, the technology that you are deploying is that you can put multiple carriers and all of the spectrum of those multiple carriers in a box that’s approximately that size?
Jay Brown:
It depends. In some markets, the answer to that question is yes. So it depends on what spectrum the carriers are deploying and what the local zoning and planning restrictions are. So in the example that we gave in Las Vegas, you can see that as we had multiple carriers come along, we went on what we would commonly refer to as – we call it, the next pullover. Really that’s another pole that’s along the existing fiber strand. Oftentimes, that’s driven by local zoning and planning restrictions and so it really does not matter to us whether it goes on the same…
Walter Piecyk:
But I am just looking at that picture. You are saying that, that picture is showing that box has wireless [ph] carriers on it?
Jay Brown:
Yes. It has two in it, yes.
Walter Piecyk:
Okay, great. Thank you very much.
Operator:
We’ll go next to Nick Del Deo with MoffettNathanson.
Nick Del Deo:
Hi. Thanks for taking my question. I would be like everyone else and ask one on small cells. If the FCC implements its new kind of special access/business data services rules in a manner that’s broadly consistent with what we have read out today, where do you think the puts and takes will be for your DAS business if any. I recognize that it’s hard to have any firm opinions if you don’t know exactly what the rules are going to be, assuming they even pass, but your big picture would also be helpful?
Jay Brown:
Yes. I think we will have to take a look where the rules ultimately come out and then analyze where that falls out to our business. I would say that the tone in Washington as well as the deployment of these networks is largely positive for our business. But we will wait and see what the final form of those rules come to and then we would be happy to comment on that and that point about it.
Nick Del Deo:
Okay, thanks.
Operator:
We will go next to Michael Bowen with Pacific Crest.
Michael Bowen:
Okay. Thanks for squeezing me in here at the end. I want to talk to you a little bit about – I apologize if I missed it a little bit, but the margins for small cells, I understand the heavy investments in the near-term, but how should we think about expansion of margins of gross and operating margins going forward. And then one thing I noticed also straight line revenues, the adjustment keeps coming down, is that basically what we should anticipate continuing here as we layer in the small cell business as well? Thanks.
Jay Brown:
Sure. On the first question, the margins on small cells are impacted by two things. One was the Sunesys acquisitions that we did. So that makes the incremental margins and growth in revenue like a little different than what we would typically see. It was just systems without the acquisition that we put into it. So that’s part of the impact. The other thing is exactly what you said, which is we have systems that have been on air and are benefiting from co-location as well as we are putting meaningful amounts of capital investment in for systems that start with just one tenant. And so the combination of those two things, along with the co-location is what yields – what meets out the ultimate margin. Again, we are looking at two things. One is the underlying business, is co-location happening and how does that develop over time. And then the second thing is as we allocate capital, new capital on new systems, does that makes sense against the broader environment. We think on both fronts, we are growing in our comfort in the business and encouragement and excitement about what could be in the small cell business as it develops very similar to what we have seen over a longer period of time in towers. To your second question about straight line revenues, just taking the simple example of a 10-year lease in the first 5 years of that 10-year lease, the reported GAAP revenues would be above the cash received. And in the second 5 years of the 10-year contract, the cash received would be above the GAAP revenues. So as you note on that slide there, we refer to that as the revenue eclipse that is occurring and we are nearly there. So we believe without meaningful amount of extensions would likely be the case over the next several years is that we will have cash receipts that are in excess of reporting GAAP revenues. And that’s why we spend so much time focusing on AFFO per share because it removes that vagaries and focuses on the cash receipts from those lease contracts.
Michael Bowen:
And then does the same thing happen on the expense side there for straight line or how does that...
Jay Brown:
Yes. It’s ground leases.
Michael Bowen:
Yes. Okay, alright. Thank you.
Jay Brown:
Maybe we have time for one more question this morning.
Operator:
We will take our last question from Batya Levi with UBS.
Batya Levi:
Okay. Thanks. You mentioned that you have very good visibility for co-location and new systems for small cell build-outs, looking out to 2017 activity, do you see any incremental testing or trials from the carriers for 5G deployment?
Jay Brown:
I think we will let them comment on their transfer for 5G.
Ben Moreland:
Directionally, where we are headed with fixed wireless broadband whether it’s 4G or beginning of 5G is obviously very positive for us. But we will see how that develops.
Batya Levi:
Okay. Thank you.
Ben Moreland:
Sure.
Jay Brown:
I think that wraps this up. Thanks everybody hanging a little longer with us today. We had a long list of questions and look forward to another very good year. Thanks very much.
Operator:
That does conclude today’s conference. We thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.
Executives:
Son Nguyen – Vice President-Finance and Investor Relations Ben Moreland – Chief Executive Officer Jay Brown – Chief Financial Officer
Analysts:
David Barden – Bank of America Ric Prentiss – Raymond James Brett Feldman – Goldman Sachs Michael Rollins – Citi Richard Joe – JP Morgan Jonathan Atkin – RBC Amir Rozwadowski – Barclays Simon Flannery – Morgan Stanley Colby Synesael – Cowen and Company
Operator:
Please standby. We are about to begin. Good day, and welcome to the Crown Castle International Q4 2015 Earnings Conference Call. Today’s conference is being recorded. At this time, I’d like to turn the conference over to Son Nguyen, VP Finance and IR. Please go ahead, sir.
Son Nguyen:
Thank you, Matt, and good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us today as we review our fourth quarter and full-year 2015 results. With me on the call this morning are Ben Moreland, Crown Castle’s Chief Executive Officer; and Jay Brown, Crown Castle’s Chief Financial Officer. To aid the discussion, we have posted supplemental materials in the Investors section of our website at crowncastle.com, which we will refer to throughout the call this morning. This conference call will contain forward-looking statements which are subject to certain risks, uncertainties and assumptions, and actual results may vary materially from those expected. Information about potential risk factors which could affect our results is available in the press release and the Risk Factors sections of the company’s SEC filings. Our statements are made as of today January 28, 2016, and we assume no obligations to update any forward-looking statements. In addition, today’s call includes discussions of certain non-GAAP financial measures. Tables reconciling these non-GAAP financial measures are available in the Supplemental Information package in the Investors section of the company’s website at crowncastle.com. With that, I’ll turn the call over to Jay.
Jay Brown:
Thanks, Son, and good morning everyone. As you saw from our release yesterday, the fourth quarter was another great quarter, bringing 2015 to a strong close and positioning us to raise our full-year 2016 outlook. For the full-year 2015, AFFO per share of $4.30 was up 8%, compared to 2014. And our increased midpoint for full-year 2016 outlook for AFFO per share of $4.68 represents a 9% increase compared to 2015. In addition, to delivering great results and extending our track record of execution, 2015 was marked by several significant accomplishments. During 2015 we achieved an investment grade credit ratings from each of S&P and Fitch Ratings. Also during the year, we redeployed capital from the divestiture of our former Australian subsidiary to further grow and strengthen our leadership position in wireless infrastructure in the U.S. which we believe is the most attractive market for wireless investment. Today with our portfolio of approximately 40,000 towers and 16,000 miles of fiber supported small cell deployment, we are able to provide wireless carriers comprehensive solutions across the country as they continue to upgrade and enhance their networks to the increasing demand for mobile data. Shifting to the fourth quarter results in Slide 4, site rental revenue grew 9% year-over-year from $723 million to $785 million, an increase of $62 million. The $62 million increase is comprised of $49 million of organic site rental revenue growth, less $17 million in adjustments for straight-line accounting associated with contracted fixed rate tenant escalation, plus $30 million in contributions from acquisitions, which primarily consisted of Sunesys and other adjustment. The organic site rental revenue growth of $49 million represents growth of 7% year-over-year, comprised of approximately 10% growth from new leasing activity and cash escalation, net of approximately 3% from tenant non-renewals. Moving to Slide 5, our fourth quarter results for site rental gross margin, adjusted EBITDA and AFFO, exceeded the midpoint of our previously provided fourth quarter 2015 outlook. Turning to investment activities as shown on Slide 6, during the fourth quarter we invested $251 million in capital expenditures, of which $29 million was sustaining capital expenditures and $222 million was discretionary investment. Included in our discretionary investments is approximately $23 million for land purchases. Our proactive approach to achieving long-term control of the ground beneath our sites is core to our business, as we seek to control our largest operating expense and produce stable and growing cash flow over time. Today, three quarters of our site rental gross margin is generated from towers on land we own, or control for more than 20 years. Where we have ground leases, the average term remaining on our ground leases is approximately 30 years. Of the remaining discretionary investment, we invested a $199 million in revenue-generating capital expenditures, consisting of $90 million on existing sites and $109 million on the construction of new sites, primarily small cell construction activity. Small cells continue to perform ahead of expectation and currently generate 12% of total site rental revenues and 11% of total site rental gross margin. Excluding the benefit from our recent acquisition of Sunesys, small cell site rental revenues grew approximately 30% year-over-year. Today our small cell networks consist of approximately 17,000 nodes on or under construction, supported by 16,000 miles of fiber. Of the 17,000 nodes, approximately 12,000 of the nodes are on air with the other, approximately 5,000 nodes under construction and expected to be completed over the next 12 months to 24 months. Continuing on the financing activities, during the quarter we paid a quarterly common stock dividend of $0.885 per share or $295 million in the aggregate. For the full-year 2016, we paid a quarterly common stock dividend in aggregate of $3.345 per common share. Additionally, in January we closed from a $5.5 billion Senior Unsecured Credit Facility. Proceeds from the New Facility, together with cash on hand, were used to repay our previous Senior Secured Credit Facility. As of January 26, we had $1.6 billion of availability under our five-year revolver. As a result of the refinancing our senior unsecured notes were upgraded by S&P to investment grade. Even more impactful than lowering the cost of debt we believe that an investment grade capital structure will ultimately drive down our cost of equity. Equally as important, we believe having access to a deeper pool of capital will result in a more stable, long-term cash flows and increase flexibility to pursue discretionary growth opportunity. Moving on to the full-year 2016 on Slide 7, we have increased our expectations at the midpoint for site rental revenues by $10 million, site rental gross margins by $7 million, and adjusted EBITDA by $12 million and AFFO by a $11 million. The increase in the outlook reflects the strong results from the fourth quarter, our continuing belief that 2016 leasing activity will be similar to 2015 and the timing benefit related to tenant non-renewals occurring later than previously expected. It is important to note that our overall expectations for the number of tenant non-renewals and aggregates, has remained unchanged. For more detailed information regarding our current book of contracted tenant leases including our expectations for non-renewals, those are available in our supplemental information package. At the AFFO per share line, the updated midpoint of our full-year 2016 outlook resulted 9% growth year-over-year compared to 2015, increasing from $4.30 per share to $4.68 per share. Like 2015, 2016 is shaping up to be another great year. We believe the essential elements for long-term shareholder value creation are as attractive as they’ve ever been. We continue to see stable and consistent leasing activity from our carrier customers. We have a runway of attractive discretionary investment opportunities, primarily in the form of small cells to enhance and grow our business. And we have an opportunity to manage the cost of debt and lower the cost of equity as we transition to an investment grade balance sheet. All of this gives us confidence in maintaining our long-term goal of delivering AFFO per share and dividend per share growth of 6% to 7% on an annual basis. Before turning the call over to Ben, I’d like to take just a moment to discuss the announced succession plan. I’m honored and excited to have the opportunity to lead the Crown Castle team. I have had the privilege of working with Ben over the last 17 years and he has been a great friend and mentor to me. Over the last eight years, through Ben’s leadership as CEO, we have grown the business significantly. Increasing AFFO per share from $1.66 to $4.30, and have successfully doubled the size of our tower portfolio, established ourselves as the leader in small cell and strengthened our balance sheet, positioning us better than ever to capitalize on the tremendous opportunities that lie ahead. I will benefit greatly in my new roles, I’m being surrounded by a very talented and experienced executive team that has been instrumental in all of these accomplishments. Together with the rest of the Crown Castle Team, we are looking forward to continuing to execute on our strategy of driving long-term shareholder returns through disciplined capital allocation, dividend growth and delivering for our customers. And with that, I’ll turn it over to Ben.
Ben Moreland:
Thanks, Jay, and thanks to all of you for joining us on the call this morning, extra early. I’ll touch on our succession plan in a moment. First, I’d like to comment on 2015 results and what lies ahead. In short we had a great year, exceeding our expectations throughout the year and executing on strategic actions through the sale of our Australian subsidiary and the purchase of the Sunesys fiber assets that really sets us up well to win in the future. I want to thank my colleagues at Crown Castle for their hard work in delivering on our commitments in 2015. Now on to the future. As Jay just mentioned, we believe we have the essential elements for long-term shareholder value creation are as attractive as ever. I’d like to spend a few minutes to further elaborate on Jay’s comments regarding each of these elements. These included a continued, healthy and sustained leasing environment over the next several years, a long runway of investment opportunities that we expect will drive high quality long-term growth and all the while maintaining a strong balance sheet and managing risk appropriately to drive down the cost of capital. First on leasing, we believe that we’re in the midst of a multi-year wireless investment cycle that will result in same level of leasing activity similar to what we have experienced in 2014 and 2015, and that is what we expect to see in 2016. For 2016, we’re expecting approximately $170 in new leasing activity, of which – $115 million will come from tower leasing. The $115 million in tower leasing represents the space of adding approximately one tenant equivalent over a 10-year period on our 40,000 towers, or a tenth of a tenant per year per tower, which is approximately our average pace of annual leasing over the last seven years. Importantly, through those seven years, we’ve been through a number of different macro economic cycles and covered several different wireless investment cycles in terms of technology, level of engagement by carrier customers in different environments. Given the underlying long-term perspective – positive fundamentals from the continued increase in mobile data consumption, we believe that this pace of leasing is a reasonable expectation for our future growth. Industry research projects mobile data to increase seven-fold between 2014 and 2019 a compounded annual growth rate of 47% or roughly doubling every two years. Recently some of the wireless carriers have reported mobile data growth even higher in the range of 60% to 75% per year growth during 2015. Against this backdrop, we expect the carriers to continue to invest on a consistent basis to maintain and improve network quality, which is the competitive necessity as carriers seek to retain existing customers, attract new customers, and monetize their networks through the deployment – development of new revenue streams such as over-the-top video and telematics. As a shared wireless infrastructure provider, Crown Castle stands ready to assist wireless carriers in this endeavor by providing them with quick and cost effective access to our wireless infrastructure as they seek to upgrade and enhance their networks. With our tower portfolio and small cell expertise, we have the unique capability to deliver across all means of shared infrastructure to meet the network needs of our carrier customers. Additionally, the runway for our growth is further supported by the amount of spectrum, but is expected to be deployed over the next several years, including the spectrum from last year’s AWS-3 auction, the spectrum from this year’s anticipated broadcast incentive auction and the spectrum currently held by the carriers and others such as a DISH and FirstNet. Turning to capital allocation, when we evaluate various investment alternatives we have whether its small cell share purchases or acquisitions, our goal is to drive long-term growth in AFFO per share and dividend per share. By this measure we are very excited by our recent and ongoing investment in small cells. Today our $3 billion investment in small cells generates a yield of approximately 8%, inclusive of our initial $1 billion investment in NextG, the acquisition we did in 2012 with an initial yield of approximately 3% to 4% and our continued Greenfield investments. We are underwriting new small cell builds with anticipated initial yields of 6% to 8% on the anchor tenant, where we believe we have the opportunity to drive yields higher through co-location. But the second tenant expected to achieve a low-to-mid teens yields and the expectation of further yield accretion, when we add third and fourth tenant overtime. On this point, in addition to the anchor tenant, we are seeing strong co-location demand on our small cell networks. We have focused our small cell efforts in the top 25 markets and believe that these early systems will be some of the most attractive locations in the future, given their franchise value. Just like towers, the need for network densification is driving small cell growth. Given the challenges in the carrier space and bringing more capacity to many urban and suburban geographies, we need to get closer to the subscribers and focus on reusing spectrum more efficiently, carriers returning to small cells as a critical tool to improve their networks. With a very similar business and economic model as our tower business, we see a long runway of attractive investment opportunities in small cells. Shifting to the balance sheet and risk profile, we view our dividend as a growing annuity paid to shareholders, where we effectively pass through the cash flows we generate from providing the U.S. wireless carriers access to mission critical infrastructure. Our goal is to protect and grow the dividend stream overtime. Our dividend is supported by long-term, recurring, contracted leases that we have in place, which currently represent approximately $20 billion in future contracted rent payments, plus future growth from contracted rent escalators and a continuing wireless investments being made that I previously mentioned. From this foundation, we are focused on managing, financial and operating risk, as we allocate capital and grow the business. On the balance sheet side, we believe in maintaining an investment grade balance sheet should provide us with access to a deeper and more stable pool of capital, reducing risk through our cash flows and providing us with an increased flexibility to pursue potential investment opportunities, both of which are supportive of the secure and growing dividend. This same perspective drives our capital allocation decisions as we continue to believe that the U.S. market provides us with the most attractive, risk adjusted return opportunities. Bottom line with a sustained level of leasing that we expect to continue over the next several years, the small cell opportunities we see ahead of us, the strength of our balance sheet and the quality of our business. We believe we can continue to deliver 6% to 7% AFFO per share and dividend growth per share. Further, we believe our expected growth rate combined with our current dividend yield of approximately 4.3%, represents a very attractive long-term total return profile for share holders. Finally, I’d like to speak to our CEO succession plan that we announced last night. I began contemplating this and subsequently engaged the board in this conversation sometime ago after reflecting on a number of considerations that led me to conclude that 2016 was the right time to begin this transition. First, as we’ve discussed on this call, the company is incredibly well-positioned for this transition. Having accomplished a number of strategic objectives that I believe are important to set us up for the next generation, and market leadership and value creation. Including on this list – included on this list would be the assemblage of our unrivalled tower portfolio, the sale of our Australian business, the acquisition of Sunesys, and leadership in the exciting small cell arena, and the strengthened balance sheet, with the achievement of the investment grade rating late last year. Second, Jay is ready, ready to step up. We’ve worked together for 17 years since the early days of Crown Castle and he has been an integral part of all we have accomplished. He has the trust and respect of the board, the executive team, and the organization, as well as the investment community. I’m very fortunate to have him as a successor and have absolute confidence that he is the right leader to lead the organization into this next chapter of success. Most importantly though, Jay will be leading a team of seasoned professionals who are very good at executing for customers across all our assets, both towers and small cells. Finally, on a personal level, it’s been an unbelievable privilege to lead Crown as CEO these last eight years. I have always found it valuable from time to time to push myself out of my comfort zone in search of new challenges. Many years ago, I lost my dad to a heart attack when he was only 47. In 2014, my wife had a breast cancer scare and fortunate was caught early and through surgery has resulted in a full recovery. With our kids out of the house now our once structured lives have changed. It is with all these considerations and the reminder that life is short, that I sense this is the right time to initiate this move out of my comfort zone. I look forward to pursuing many new challenges, some personal and some professional. I also look forward to my continuing investment and involvement with Crown Castle in this new capacity, ensuring leadership continuity as Executive Vice Chairman. I am proud of what we’ve accomplished and through the succession plan, I’m highly confident this team will continue to reward shareholders, customers and employees for choosing Crown Castle. Thank you to all of you on this call who have supported me and this management team over the years. I look forward to our continued association. And with that operator, I’d be happy to turn the call over for questions.
Operator:
Thank you, sir. [Operator Instructions] We will take our first question from David Barden with Bank of America.
David Barden:
Hey guys, thanks Ben. You know this is not the last quarter we’re going to chance to talk, but thanks for all that and the contributions. And Jay congrats on the job. I’m looking forward to continue to work with both of you guys. Kind of focusing on the business is the kind of look ahead I guess I’ve got a couple of questions. One just on the obvious, with respect to kind of all the noise coming out of Sprint with respect to their network architecture, we don’t have to talk about Sprint necessarily as to say, there’s a carrier out there that’s looking to explore new more efficient ways to build a network and it seems that they are looking to reevaluate their renewal schedule on tower leases as we go forward. I was wondering if you can kind of talk about, what if anything you see ahead for that strategy. And then second, Jay a year ago, we were sitting here and I think the outlook was for new site leasing activity of maybe 5% and now we’re sitting here looking at actually 6%, a better outlook for this year over the course of last year that outlook actually went up by about a percentage point. So what are the factors that you see, maybe evolving in 2016 that could do to this year’s guidance, what happened to last year’s guidance in terms of walking it up the curve over the course of the year? Thanks.
Ben Moreland:
Sure Dave, hi this is Ben. First of all, without addressing Sprint specifically what I’d like to talk about is the fact that, three of the four carriers have reported thus far and I think all of them in various ways have confirmed the need for macro sites being an integral part of their network now and in future, and that shouldn’t be surprising any of us that are close to the business. Macro sites i.e. towers remain the most attractive and cost effective way to cover a given geography with the spectrum that they own. That said, there are certainly hybrid sites and head net [ph] architectures that we participate in and many people do. That are going to augment the capacity of the networks going forward and that’s the whole small cell underlay approach. And frankly sites that look like crosses between macro sites and small cells, dark fiber fed and ultimately that sort of what CRAN architecture starts to look like overtime. When you think about our business fundamentally, it’s a capital intensive business. Goes with the lowest cost of capital, tend to win and when you introduced on top of that the notion of shared economics i.e. the carriers only pay for the proportion of the asset that they need. It’s an incredibly compelling model and it’s one that, I think, is going to continue to work as it has for the last 20 years for the indefinite future. So when carriers work on new deployments and new architectures with certainly an appropriate view to save cost, we’re going to be right there with them at every step of the way. And I can tell you that we’re working with all four carriers in that regard to utilize our cost of capital and the sharing model to be an integral part of their solution going forward. And so I think it’s been helpful for the last couple of weeks that three out of four carriers have confirmed that macro tower sites are an integral part of their model going forward. That’s not surprising to us. But I think this hybrid-type network going forward, is going to be very important and we’re incredibly well positioned with assets and capability to take advantage of that. But when you hear us talk about the cost of capital, it’s not simply just to lower the cost on the balance sheet, of our interest expense, it is very much to the most competitive company out there that can deploy capital assets on behalf of these carriers and make it very efficiently for them. And so that’s something we’re spending a lot of time on it, and executive team and I’m very comfortable with what we see in front of us.
Jay Brown:
Dave and your second question, last year the 2015 increase in guidance over the course of the year about half of that was driven from an increase in leasing activity and about half of that was driven from lower non-renewals than what we had expected going into the year. And as we look at our guidance for 2016, we held that elevated level of leasing activities throughout the full calendar year 2016 such that leasing activity, we think this year will match that of 2015. As there are potential upside there, I’d point to the fact that typically in the business we have about six months to eight months of visibility – from the time we have an application coming from a carrier to the time it’s actually revenue producing. So we have a real good idea as to where new tenant leasing is going to be through at least the first half of the year or maybe dead-end of the third quarter. So to the extent that there was additional leasing activity over the course of year, that’s honestly more likely to impact our run rates going into 2017 then it is to be that meaningful to result in 2016.
David Barden:
Got it. All right, thank you very much guys.
Operator:
We go next to Ric Prentiss with Raymond James.
Ric Prentiss:
Thanks, good morning guys. First I like all the comments congrats to Jay and Ben it’s been a great ride long time together in the tower space for us and looking back at my notes, I think Crown is up 4X since 17 years ago. So congrats to both of you guys.
Ben Moreland:
Thank you.
Jay Brown:
Thanks.
Ric Prentiss:
First question, I’ve got is if a carrier does decide not to renew their lease, what triggers there? And do they have to remove the equipment and how much could that cost?
Ben Moreland:Hence:
Ric Prentiss:
Makes sense. Also this quarter we saw a pop-up in the SG&A line, can you talk a little bit about what is occurring there and can we think of that maybe as a revenue driver longer-term?
Jay Brown:
Yes, the SG&A pop-up, a bit of that would be related to having Sunesys for all three months of the quarter Ric. And then the other part of it the business outperformed our bonus level for across the employee base for the full-year 2015 would have been above kind of our targeted level as we raised outlook throughout the course of the year and delivered and even exceed it in the fourth quarter. I think if you look at calendar year 2016, we think the run rate is basically unchanged from full-year 2015. So as we talked about on previous call, we think that there’s virtually no cost increase at the GAAP line on the tower side or on the SG&A side for calendar year 2016, and that would be based on the current level of activity that we see in small cells, ex cetera. We’ll obviously have some operating costs in small cells as we deployed brand new systems. But for most part on the tower side we think costs are flat and on the SG&A we think those costs are flat in 2016 to 2015.
Ric Prentiss:
That make sense. And then on Sunesys, you’d talked in the past about some extension maybe that could be done half of those existing fiber that Sunesys brought in. Update us a little bit about what you’re seeing in that extension mode?
Ben Moreland:
Sure. The rationale behind the 10,000 miles of fiber providing great bargains are Sunesys it would give is a great head start on small cell deployments and that’s exactly what it is. But it’s a head start, it’s not a perfect footprint and so as you referenced, we’re constantly working to improve that our network, just as we do with existing Crown fiber, where we get a new engagement and maybe there’s, as I’ve described before there’s always overlap. So when you think of a tower co-location which is 100% co-location on existing site, co-location or an additional deployment on a Sunesys piece of fiber, or Crown fiber is always a hybrid. So there’s always a percentage of overlap and a percentage of new typically. But in examples may be otherwise like Manhattan where there was pretty full overlap. So that’s working well. It drives our increasing created yield on the asset. As I mentioned in my remarks we’re up to about 8% on the embedded capital like to date. And so as we’re building additional, either additional laterals or accommodating co-locations, it’s essentially driving up that yield overtime. And we’re going to have better metrics for you in the coming quarters because I know this has got a lot of moving parts to it. And we’re going to come out with that for everyone to help their modeling later in the year. What we focus on as a management team is ultimately the yield on the invested capital. That cuts through all the metrics whether it’s tenants per node, or nodes per mile, or revenue per mile. And so we’re going to help everybody with that later in the year so that we can all be clear, but that’s why we’re giving you these sort of run rate yields, it’s validating for ourselves as well that we’re continuing to see accretive investments in that space.
Ric Prentiss:
Great, thanks guys.
Operator:
We’ll take our next question from Brett Feldman, Goldman Sachs [ph].
Brett Feldman:
Thanks, and also congrats to you guys, really exciting news. As we think about where you’re deploying capital, you sort of listed a couple of potential areas of discretionary investment. I might have missed it but I don’t think you actually include towers on the list. I’m curious whether you feel like the portfolio towers that you have today is essentially the portfolio you’ll be operating and generating returns off of for the foreseeable future. And then just as an extension you talked about the importance of small cells and how you’ve invested in that. And as you see your carriers kind of evolve, how they’re thinking about deploying venture networks, do you feel like the outdoor business that you have in the top 25 markets today is really what you need or do you see opportunities to create partnerships or make investments in other areas to further accelerate your positioning in that market? Thanks.
Ben Moreland:
Sure, Brett. First of all, I didn’t mean to slide towers at all. We bought 17,000 sites in the last, I guess, three years that we’re looking for more tenants. So those towers we acquired from AT&T and T-Mobile most recently are very attractive co-location candidates. And probably, not probably absolutely represent the biggest value creation opportunity we have in the company. That is to co-locate on an existing tower and we’re quite happy with that going forward. The fact is that the carriers had essentially sold the vast majority of their site. There’s some small portfolios out there. And it has been somewhat aggregated by the three large carry tower companies. So I don’t see anything large on the horizon out there. It’s certainly not a requirement for us to create significant value as I mentioned the organic growth is what drives value around here. But I would also highlight, go back to 2001 and, 2000 and 1999, when essentially the carriers sold all their sites initially and then we went through a whole another wave of that some 15 years later. So we do think there’ll be a need for more tower sites overtime as cell sites continue to shrink and density requirements continue to increase. There’s nothing significant out there today and we are certainly advancing our leadership position on this newer architecture around small cells as we talked about. On the outdoor business for small cells, while we are about 90% focused in the top 25 markets, we’re constantly looking at opportunities outside the 25 markets. And so your question, I think, goes to sort of how big could this be? And the answer is, we don’t really know, but it looks like it could be sort of a whole another tower business. It’s hard, it’s expensive, it takes a long time to build these systems, but at the same time we are focused on what we think our franchise locations in something of a land grab that reminds us a lot of the early days of the tower business and so we’re focusing our efforts in the top 25 markets, but I don’t think it’s going to be limited to that. In fact I know it’s not, because we’re looking at opportunities occasionally outside those markets and looks like it’s got a long, long runway.
Brett Feldman:
And that’s primarily outdoor opportunities, I mean it just seems like there’s a lot different types of small cell solutions, there’s indoor solutions and rooftops, and I’m just wondering whether those areas are peaking your interest as well?
Ben Moreland:
Well we have an indoor business and we do quite well with it, where we choose to play we’ve done a lot of sports arenas, things like that. I think overtime you’re going to see multi tenant office buildings, but there are alternative solutions available to the landlords and tenants, when you get into a multi tenant facility, that don’t necessarily lend themselves to a neutral host owner like ourselves. A tenant in an office building can set up their own system or an office building can own their system, there’s lot of different variations. And then there’s a limitation in the marketplace still as to what the carriers will ultimately elect to pay for in terms of the rent. As we’ve said forever and we all know this, there’s more need in the market for densification and network and there are hours in the day or capital that the carriers can invest. So there’s a rational prioritization going on. I think you’re certainly seeing this extend to healthcare facilities now. And so we’re certainly looking at the indoor building business where there when we find it attractive. But it’s – I don’t think it’s as large as the outdoor business.
Brett Feldman:
Okay. Thanks for that color.
Ben Moreland:
Okay.
Operator:
We’ll go next to Michael Rollins with Citi
Michael Rollins:
Good morning and thanks to ask the questions, two if I could. Your first observation that you add more nodes on to relatively flat amount of fiber mile, is that a trend that should continue and how does that affect your return on capital opportunity from that business overtime? And then secondly, I’m curious what you’re seeing on the propagation side for small cells? And how would you compare the radius of a small cell in your expense versus the macro? And are there changes in technology that’s going to affect the relationship over time? Thanks.
Ben Moreland:
lease-up [ph]:
On the second question, the propagation characteristics of small cells, there’s no simple answer to that question or one-size-fits-all answer to that question. Its designed based on what the carriers desire. And so you can go into a given area and find a small cell every 200 yards where they are trying to increase the density of their network. At other places you’ll see them spaced a little further than that. So there’s no easy answer to say that the propagation of a small cell, it has to do with what spectrum may deploy across that small cell, how much power they use. So it can vary. I would say in a typical urban environment, you’re going to cover about a block to two blocks of area when you deploy – when the carriers deploy small cells. And we’ll see them put up nodes about every other block would be a relatively normal deployment in a dense urban area. If you look across the entire portfolio on an outdoor basis where we’re typically when we’re building a new system for someone, we’ll be somewhere between 2 nodes and 2.5 nodes per mile of fiber on the initial deployment. So that gives you some idea of what we see and obviously there can be some pretty wide swings depending on whether or not we’re doing central business district or doing something a little bit outside of the most densely populated areas of the city.
Michael Rollins:
Thanks very much.
Ben Moreland:
Okay.
Operator:
We’ll go next to Phil Cusick with JPMorgan.
Richard Joe:
Hi, this is Richard Joe for Phil. Just wanted to follow-up a little bit more on a small cells, we wanted to get a sense of the competition is like small cells, how many RFPs are competitive and how is the pricing held up?
Ben Moreland:
Yes, hi Richard it’s Ben. It’s very competitive and look we’re the leader in the space and we believe we have more capability for what we turn key deployments which all in building systems locating antennas on fiber that we build. But at the same time, there are other very capable competitors out there and we see competition in the marketplace. It goes back to my original comments about cost to capital matters in this business. And so that’s something that we focus on. Not going to get really into the specifics around the market, a lot of these systems are conducted through an RFP process initially, but at the same time what matters most to carriers obviously is the ability of the award winner to execute. And so we have seen opportunities come back to us on occasion, where the awardee may have had some challenges in the market. What matters most to carriers if they have a need for small cells is execution, meeting your milestones, getting on the air, so that they can accomplish the capacity enhancements that they are trying to do on their network. So I think it’s [indiscernible] I will say on that, it’s a highly competitive market these days.
Richard Joe:
Great. And then a quick follow-up in terms of your guidance, should we think of this small cell business just ramping through the year or is this going to be more back-end loaded as the bills kind pile up, so to speak.
Jay Brown:
On both the towers and small cell side the year is the bit back-end loaded, it’s about 40% of the activity in the first half of the year and about 60% in the second half of the year.
Richard Joe:
Great, thank you.
Jay Brown:
You bet.
Operator:
We will take our next question from Jonathan Atkin, RBC.
Jonathan Atkin:
Yes, so I have a question about the push out of the non-renewals and wondering which projects that refers to is it WiMax, or iDEN or one of two CDMA decommissions that’s been happening? And then just generally kind of your macro tower business, wondering what new developments are seen in your pipeline as it pertains to things like AWS-3, overlays or macro site densification or any and then I guess I have a quick follow-up on small cells. Thanks.
Ben Moreland:
,:
The second question on the tower side, we’re seeing carriers do all kinds of things on the macro side. There’s been simplification [ph] activities there’s amendment that’s adding new technology, they’re supporting additional spectrum that we’ve seen and the mix of both amendments and new cell and brand new cell sites in 2016 is pretty similar to what we saw in 2015. So we’re not seeing any trends here that I would point to it as changes from what we saw in 2015.
Jay Brown:
Just to add to that. John, just real quick to add that as we’ve pursued the small cell business we’ve talked about on this call and remain very enthusiastic about the opportunity, again the first thing a carrier does is add densification, is macro tower sites. And everywhere we’re building small cells there are macro tower coverages already there. So if you were to stand on the street corner where we have a deployment, you would already have a macro site covering, keyword covering that geography. And so we’re building small cell networks essentially and underlay approach in to add capacity to these networks. But certainly the macro tower site is what happens first and that’s continuing to be what we see on the tower side.
Jonathan Atkin:
And then I guess segwaying into the small cell is there a different as of demand that are seen in terms of which carriers are coming on to your infrastructure? And then I guess related to that and related to what Mike was asking as well, is the nodes you expect to have this year, how much would be kind of a long existing fiber routes that have been activated with your infrastructure second or third tenancies if you will along the same route versus new laterals that haven’t been activated with your data infrastructure?
Ben Moreland:
Go ahead, Jay.
Jay Brown:
I was to about say on the first question, when we go into any given year there’s an expectation we have around ranges for each of the carriers. And I wouldn’t point to anything in calendar year 2016 that looks that much different than what we saw in 2015. We’re seeing activity on both the macro side, as well as small cells from all four of the operators. We saw that throughout 2015 and we would expect the same thing in 2016. On the mix of leasing in small cells, it’s about a 75% mix of where we’re deploying brand new systems in places that we did not previously have small cell systems and about of the leasing activity would be coming from co-locations on existing systems.
Jonathan Atkin:
And then finally on the CFO search, any particular criteria that you are looking for in terms of the background of the individual you’re looking to hire?
Ben Moreland:
Well based on some initial conversations, I think we can attract extremely seasoned and qualified candidates that we’re very optimistic there this spring, having a great new addition to the team and more to come on that.
Jonathan Atkin:
Thanks, good luck.
Ben Moreland:
Thanks, John.
Operator:
We will take our next question from Amir Rozwadowski from Barclays.
Amir Rozwadowski:
Thank you very much, and good morning. Simply want to echo the comments Ben, wish you the best of luck as you look to make, what I suspect we all, hope will be an exciting transition for you and your family.
Ben Moreland:
Thanks.
Amir Rozwadowski:
In terms of questions, I’ve two, if I may. On the first, you mentioned some of the upcoming spectrum that seems to be coming to market I mean obviously there have been selected carriers who’ve talked about the opportunity set in terms of providing additional bandwidth with deployment of fellow spectrum. But there have also been discussions about how networks are dense enough and how additional capacity. And I’m just trying to sort of triangulate in terms of the opportunities that for you folks, I mean do you see those types of carriers looking to densify their networks? How should we think about the potential amendment opportunities going forward with things like AWS-3 in terms of providing support for the longer term runway?
Ben Moreland:
Sure, and I think what you’re referring to is Amir is the inherent trade-off that is between spectrum and densification i.e. to the extent you have more spectrum you can do more with your existing sites and within to lay the need to densify in a particular area if you otherwise didn’t have spectrum. And that’s true, and yet what we see is kind of all the above. So as the carriers come in and launch new spectrum, to get maximum efficiency out of that very expensive spectrum, they’re typically adding more equipment to the site, to the existing site. That just makes sense. The cost of that incremental amendment on a tower is nothing compared to getting the maximum value out of the spectrum in that particular geography. And that’s what is driving a lot of our amendment activity across all of the carriers and as has for years. I don’t see that changing. But in addition to that, you’re not going to cover the capacity requirements simply by adding spectrum to existing site. It’s mathematically impossible you can’t get the capacity requirements that are required. And so what happens is, in addition to adding that spectrum on existing sites, you’re then seeing small cells added in an underlay approach which gives them multiples of that spectrum, capacity, because they’re then reusing that spectrum in that geography and unloading, effectively unloading the capacity challenge on the macro side. So you’re going to see both, it’s exactly what’s driving our business today. The carriers are obviously being very rational about how do they prioritize their spend and they’re looking at spectrum auctions and having to pay for the spectrum up front. And then how do they maximize that capacity overtime. And then various carriers, they are in various stages of that today whether that’s cell site densification or macro site amendment. But all of that drives our business and it’s something that we think is going to continue for a long, long time.
Amir Rozwadowski:
Thank you very much. And then dovetailing on to small cells, it seems as though the growth has been a bit higher than expected, but of course it also seems like we’re still at the very early stages of adoption, particularly when we think about sort of a neutral hosting business model. I mean, there has been some chatter in the marketplace with folks discussing opportunities to densify their networks going at it alone in terms of utilizing certain technologies or potentially possible rights of access or microwave backhaul or however you want to look at the combination of different opportunities. How do you sort of compare and contrast the opportunities that you folks have utilizing assets such as Sunesys or some of this land grab that you had mentioned versus carriers looking to potentially densify their network via small cells on their own sort of strategy?
Ben Moreland:
Well, I think you’re going to see sort of all the above and it’s not new if you think about it. The wireless carriers essentially rebuilt the tower portfolio on their own balance sheet, since we as an industry acquired in the early 2000s and then elected to monetize it overtime in the last three years. I think carriers will from time to time experiment with lots of different methods to add capacities to their network, that’s not new. It goes back to the earlier comment and there’s a lot of different technology variations, I think, it’s generally accepted that fiber connectivity for small cells and towers ultimately through dark fiber connectivity provides the most flexibility and the most capacity for a given location. And so I think you’re going to see overtime that fiber, whether you’re talking about fiber-to-the-cell or fiber to the small cell, is a necessary element long-term to accomplish what they need. And it goes back to earlier comments on this call around cost of capital and the sharing model. Certainly it’s possible for carriers to work and build their own systems and certainly free to do that and operate under the same constraints that we do around permitting, and zoning, and rights away and things like that. But to the extent they can avail themselves of a lower cost of capital, allow themselves to put their capital back to work in their primary business and we pass along some of that shared economics to them in that construct, that’s going to make a lot of sense as it has for the last 20 years. And that’s what we’re pursuing.
Amir Rozwadowski:
Excellent. Thank you very much for the incremental color.
Jay Brown:
Sure.
Operator:
We’ll go next to Simon Flannery with Morgan Stanley.
Simon Flannery:
Great, thanks very much. Ben and Jay congrats and good luck on your next move. Ben I wonder if you just talk a little bit about your new roll, I guess you’re going to have a real focus on strategy. How do you see spending your time, and what are the real areas that you think you’re going to be able to do dive deeper into with your new responsibilities? And then sort of following-up from the last question for Verizon has talked about, a lot about 5G with trials coming up in the next month or two. Micro waves is going to be – frequencies are going be deployed there. Have you had much conversations with companies and with the equipment companies about the opportunities there and what that might mean, over say the next five or ten years? And we saw fixed wireless launched yesterday. So it does look like there’s other technologies which are really starting to appear on the horizon here. If you could talk to that, that would be great?
Ben Moreland:
Sure. First of all on the role Simon, we’re filling out the list, but it keeps getting more items on it. I think initially, I’m going to certainly continue to spend time on industry matters, whether that’s your PCI or NAREIT. I’m on the board of both organizations and we’re making some good progress there in the interest of our company, as well as the broader industry. And I expect to continue in the capacity. And then also I would expect to continue to work the executive team on matters of strategy, capital allocations, some of the discussions we’ve had on the call. But would anticipate that given the longevity and tenure of the team, this executive team, and Jay in particular having worked together for 17 years and can finish each others [indiscernible], I do not think, we’re going to have a difference of opinion very often on strategy. So it’s really going to be a to the board and to industry matters that I think are increasingly important for us. As we look to continue to have the ability to deploy wireless infrastructure in a very efficient way across the country and just for those on this call that is not getting any easier, and so it’s something that I’m pretty focused on.
Simon Flannery:
Any…
Jay Brown:
Go on…
Simon Flannery:
Any movement from NAREIT on sort of index inclusion?
Jay Brown:
Nothing definitive yet, we will wait until August, and we have our new GICS code and see how that goes.
Simon Flannery:
Okay. Thank you.
Ben Moreland:
Simon on your second question, I think you can roll back the clock and see that as the carriers have migrated technology, that those have almost always been aimed at improving the consumer experience which is generally code for faster access to data network. And those have always resulted in additional need for network density. And I think regardless of – you rattled off a few opportunities that are on the horizon. And we’re seeing carriers behave and think about the network planning whether we’re talking to them about macro sites or small cells in a very similar way that it’s going to result in additional network density being required and we think that’s great for our opportunity, our opportunity as we deploy capital and see additional yield on the capital that we’ve already deployed.
Simon Flannery:
Right, thank you.
Operator:
Our last question will come from Colby Synesael with Cowen and Company.
Colby Synesael:
Great, thank you for fitting me in and to both of you congrats with your newer opportunities.
Ben Moreland:
Thanks, Colby.
Colby Synesael:
First up I wanted to kind of just levels of expectations around Sunesys. So can you just remind us how fast Sunesys grew in 2015? And then what the implied growth rate is off of the $105 million which you guided for 2016? I’d appreciate that. Sunesys contributed $42 million to you in 2015. But I’m just trying to get the year-over-year comparisons. And then just talking more about small cell, you mentioned your focus on 25 markets and obviously looking beyond that, in those 25 markets roughly how many of those are you – that where you’re comfortable with the amount of fiber that you have? And really what I’m getting at is, what’s the likelihood of you going and doing another Sunesys like acquisition in 2016, how important is that to you when you think of strategy in areas you’re focusing on for 2016? If that acquisition you were to do was to come with a larger percentage of enterprise or wholesale or is that definitely not small cell like business in terms of how they’re using that fiber. Is that a business you’re increasingly getting more comfortable getting into as we go forward, so that you’re no longer just a small cell fiber provider but really something much more broader than that. Thanks.
Ben Moreland:
Sure. Thanks for the question, Colby. On the first question when we did the Sunesys acquisition I know initially when we announced that we weren’t sure exactly what the timing of the closing was going to be. The revenue growth year-over-year is a couple of million dollars. So the guidance that we gave you was what we were expecting in 2016. And really your two questions are fairly closely tied together. When we look at fiber in these markets and the opportunities that we’re seeing more broadly than just Sunesys and whether that’s expanding our portfolio on the top 25 market or as Ben referenced earlier if we’re looking outside of the top 25 markets, our aim is to own fiber that is supported by the wireless carriers. That’s our core business and that’s what we’re focused on. And so when we look at opportunities for fiber, that’s what we have in mind, of what can we do with that fiber ultimately to drive yield on the capital invested. And we think that yield is going to be primarily driven through investment by the wireless carriers and I was adding nodes to those or in some cases doing fiber-to-the-cell. There may be some acquisitions in the future, frankly as we talked about when we did the Sunesys acquisition we think that asset is really unique, it was dark fiber in major metro markets in the U.S. And while we have found a few tuck-in acquisitions like the one we did two years ago in the Baltimore, Washington area. Those are relatively rare. So we’re not thinking about this as getting into per se the fiber business or expanding into the fiber business. Over time, we may find opportunities to add additional yield through recurring revenue sources across the fiber that we own. Because of the location of the fiber it’s in urban areas where there’s a lot of density of population. And so we may find opportunities to add additional revenue and drive returns. But our focus both on the investment side as well as where we’re focusing our sales effort is around supporting our wireless carrier customers. That’s what we really want to do and what we want to be. So that’s where you’re going to see us invest capital and focus our time and effort both in the near-term and what we believe currently will be the long-term strategy of the firm.
Colby Synesael:
And just to clarify when you said Sunesys expectations you grew a couple of million, are you saying that the 105 guidance for 2016 is effectively a couple of million higher than what Sunesys did as a whole in 2015?
Ben Moreland:
That’s correct. If we obviously we did not own Sunesys for the entire 2015 period. But that’s what it grew year-over-year.
Colby Synesael:
That’s great. Thank you.
Ben Moreland:
You bet.
Colby Synesael:
Okay.
Ben Moreland:
Well I appreciate everybody’s time on call this morning. Thanks for the questions I know there was a long lived cheer and there are several folks who probably did not get to. We’re around today so feel free to pick up the phone and call us or you can reach up Son Nguyen. And we’re happy to get your questions. And look forward to talking to you next quarter.
Operator:
And that does conclude today’s call. Thank you for your participation.
Operator:
Good day, and welcome to the Crown Castle International Q3 2015 Earnings Conference Call. Today's conference is being recorded. At this time, I'd like to turn the conference over to Son Nguyen. Please go ahead.
Son Nguyen:
Thank you, Hannah, and good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us today as we reveal our third quarter 2015 results. With me on the call this morning are Ben Moreland, Crown Castle's Chief Executive Officer, and Jay Brown, Crown Castle's Chief Financial Officer. To aid the discussion, we have posted supplemental materials in the Investors section of our website at crowncastle.com, which we will refer to throughout the call this morning. This conference call will contain forward-looking statements which are subject to certain risks, uncertainties and assumptions, and actual results may vary materially from those expected. Information about potential risk factors which could affect our results is available in the press release and the Risk Factors sections of the company's SEC filings. Our statements today are made as of October 22, 2015, and we assume no obligations to update any forward-looking statements. In addition, today's call includes discussions of certain non-GAAP financial measures. Tables reconciling these non-GAAP financial measures are available in the Supplemental Information package in the Investors section of the company's website at crowncastle.com. With that, I'll turn the call over to Jay.
Jay A. Brown:
Thanks, Son, and good morning everyone. As you can see from our third quarter results, we continue to execute at a consistently high level, exceeding the high end of our previously provided third quarter outlook, which allowed us to raise the outlook for the full year. At the midpoint, our updated full year 2015 outlook for AFFO per share of $4.30 is up 8% compared to 2014. Similarly, for 2016 we are also expecting to deliver 8% growth in AFFO per share, up from $4.30 per share in 2015 to $4.66 per share in 2016. Further, our board has approved a dividend increase in line with our expected growth in 2016 AFFO per share, increasing the quarterly dividend by 8% from $3.28 per share to $3.54 per share on an annualized basis. The increase in our common stock dividend reflects our commitment to delivering attractive, long-term total returns for our shareholders by growing the dividend over time. The strength of our business model, quality of our portfolio and cash flows and our strong balance sheet give us the confidence to commit to returning a significant portion of capital to shareholders in the form of a dividend, and at the same time, maintaining the flexibility to invest in growth opportunities that we believe will enhance long-term growth in AFFO and dividends per share. Turning to third quarter results on slide 4, site rental revenue grew 7% year-over-year from $718 million to $765 million, an increase of $47 million. The $47 million increase is comprised of $16 million from the Sunesys acquisition, which closed during the quarter, and $43 million of organic rental revenue growth, net of $12 million in straight-line and other adjustments. The organic site rental revenue growth of $43 million represents growth of 6% year-over-year, comprised of approximately 10% growth from new leasing activity and cash escalations, net of approximately 4% from tenant non-renewals. Moving to slide 5, our third quarter results for site rental revenue gross margin, adjusted EBITDA and AFFO exceeded the high end of our previously provided third quarter 2015 outlook, which did not include the Sunesys acquisition. Even after stripping out the contribution from Sunesys, which contributed $11 million in site rental gross margin during the quarter, we would have exceeded the high end of our outlook. Turning to investment activities, as shown on slide 6, during the third quarter we invested $237 million in capital expenditures. These capital expenditures included $31 million in sustaining capital expenditures and $16 million in land purchases. Our proactive approach to achieving long-term control of the ground beneath our sites is core to our business, as we look to control our largest operating expense and produce stable and growing cash flow over time. Today, nearly 40% of our site rental gross margin is generated from towers on land we own, and approximately three-quarters on land we own or lease for more than 20 years. Where we have ground leases, the average term remaining on our ground leases is approximately 30 years. Additional information regarding the land beneath our towers is available in our Supplemental Information package posted in the Investors section of our website. Of the remaining capital expenditures, we invested $190 million in revenue-generating capital expenditures, consisting of $92 million on existing sites and $98 million on the construction of new sites, primarily small cell construction activity. As previously mentioned, during the quarter we also closed on the Sunesys acquisition. Sunesys owns or has the rights to nearly 10,000 miles of fiber in major metro markets across the U.S., where we already have a small cell presence today and would expect to see meaningful amount of small cell activity in the future. Prior to the Sunesys acquisition, we owned or had rights to approximately 7,000 miles of fiber that supported 15,000 small cell nodes and growing. The addition of Sunesys' well located, high-quality fiber footprint more than doubles our fiber footprint available to support our small cell networks. Year-to-date, excluding Sunesys, small cell site rental revenue has grown approximately 30%. While towers will continue to be the most efficient and cost-effective way for carriers to deploy their networks, we expect carriers to make investments in small cells to enhance their macro network by bringing cell sites closer to mobile subscribers, supplementing wireless coverage and capacity provided by a tower at a height of 100 to 150 feet that covers an eighth to a half a mile, with small cells deployed at a height of 20 to 30 feet on a traffic light that may cover a city block. We believe small cells represent the natural progression of network densification and cell splitting by the carriers as they contend with consumer demand for mobile data. Shifting to financing activities, during the quarter we paid a quarterly common stock dividend of $0.82 per share, or $274 million in aggregate. Further, we continue to maintain our long-term target leverage ratio of four to five times as we remain focused on achieving an investment-grade credit rating. Moving on to full year 2015 outlook on slide 7, we have increased our expectations at the midpoint for site rental revenues, adjusted EBITDA, and AFFO – $60 million, $37 million, and $23 million, respectively. On a per-share basis, our updated 2015 outlook provides for AFFO per share growth of 8% year-over-year compared to 2014, increasing from $3.97 per share to $4.30 per share. The increase in our 2015 outlook includes contribution from Sunesys of $40 million in site rental revenues and $30 million in site rental gross margin. The increase in the outlook also reflects the strong results from the third quarter, an increase in our expectations for leasing activity for the remainder of the year, and our expectations that a portion of tenant non-renewal previously expected to occur in 2015 will take place in 2016. It is important to note that our overall expectations for the number of tenant non-renewals in aggregate remained unchanged. For 2016, at the midpoint of our outlook, we expect AFFO per share growth of 8% driven by the continued strength in leasing activity, the contribution of the Sunesys acquisition, and improving operating leverage in our business. On a normalized basis, adjusting for Australia and Sunesys, AFFO growth in 2016 would be between 6.5% and 7%, or towards the high end of our long-term AFFO growth target. Moving from left to right on slide 8, our expectations for growth of approximately $150 million in site rental revenues is comprised of new leasing activity, or incremental revenue from new tenant installations and amendments to existing tenant leases, of approximately $170 million, consisting of tower leasing of approximately $115 million and small cell leasing of approximately $55 million. The approximately $115 million in new leasing contribution from tower leasing is consistent with our long-term expectation of adding approximately one tenant-equivalent over 10 years across our portfolio of approximately 40,000 towers, or a tenth of a tenant per tower per year. To put that tenth of a tenant into perspective, over the last six years our annual leasing activity has ranged between 0.09 and 0.13 tenants per tower. Our organic growth is also supported by annual contracted tenant escalators on our towers and small cell leases of approximately 3%, which we expect will contribute approximately $95 million in growth during 2016. Growth from new leasing activity and tenant escalation is expected to be offset by tenant non-renewals of approximately $105 million, to arrive at organic site rental revenue growth of $160 million or 6% growth year-over-year. As we've previously disclosed, the expectations for tenant non-renewals during 2016 is higher than our historical 1% to 2% annual non-renewal rate, due to elevated non-renewals from the decommissioning of a portion of the Leap, Metro and Clearwire networks. Site rental revenue growth during 2016 also benefits from year-over-year incremental contribution from the Sunesys acquisition of approximately $60 million. More detailed information regarding our current book of contracted tenant leases, including the impact of straight-line accounting and expectations for non-renewals, is available in our Supplemental Information package. Turning to slide 9, I want to spend a moment to walk you through the approximately $130 million of growth in AFFO from 2015 to 2016. Starting on the left-hand side, we have organic site rental revenue growth of approximately $160 million, offset by $35 million increase in normal, ongoing, operating and G&A expenses. The $35 million increase in expenses compared to the $160 million in organic site rental revenue growth drives incremental margins of approximately 80%, illustrating the improving operating leverage in our business. For 2016, our expectations for network services gross margin is $230 million to $250 million, compared to our 2015 expectations of $280 million to $285 million. The decline in network services gross margin of approximately $40 million is attributable primarily to equipment decommissioning fees generated in 2015, which we do not expect to occur in 2016. Additionally, 2016 AFFO growth benefits from a reduction in sustaining CapEx of approximately $25 million and other adjustments of approximately $20 million, which includes the incremental contribution from Sunesys. The approximately $130 million in expected growth in AFFO translates to approximately 8% growth in AFFO per share. As Ben will discuss, we continue to believe that our commitment to returning capital to shareholders, with a particular focus on delivering high-quality dividend stream and disciplined capital allocation focused on long-term high-quality growth, will drive significant shareholder value over time. And with that, I'll turn the call over to Benjamin.
W. Benjamin Moreland:
Thanks, Jay, and thanks to all of you for joining us on the call this morning. As you heard from Jay's remarks, based on our increased 2015 outlook, we expect to finish 2015 on a strong note and we look to continue this momentum moving into 2016. Consistent with the goal we communicated a year ago to deliver 6% to 7% annual AFFO per share growth organically, our 2016 outlook for AFFO per share provides for 8% growth at the midpoint, inclusive of about 150 basis points of benefit from the sale of our Australian subsidiary and acquisition of Sunesys. A year ago, we also stated our intention to deliver dividend growth in line with our expected growth in AFFO per share, and I'm pleased to announce that our board has approved an 8% increase in our stock dividend from $3.28 to $3.54 on an annualized basis. Since we increased our dividend payout a year ago, we have closed the yield differential between the RMZ REIT Index by 50 basis points, outperformed the S&P 500 and RMZ year-to-date, and made good progress attracting the incremental long-term investor. With the latest dividend increase, we are continuing to build on our track record of delivering attractive total returns to shareholders. From 2015 to 2016, our total return expectations are 12%, comprised of the current 4% dividend yield and 8% growth in dividend. Looking out beyond 2016, we remain confident in our long-term goal of generating 6% to 7% AFFO growth organically. Combined with the current dividend yield of 4%, we believe the long-term total return opportunity of 10% to 11% should be very compelling to investors, given the contracted nature of our business. In fact, we believe a significant catalyst exists as we continue to deliver on expectations and differentiate Crown Castle from its peers in terms of capital allocation and strategic profile. Compared to the best-in-class REITs with dividend yields in the high 2%s to low 3% range, our dividend yield north of 4% suggests we have an opportunity to help investors appreciate the unique combination of high-quality yield and growth that we represent as an investment. Further, out of 425 dividend-paying companies in the S&P 500, Crown Castle has the 383rd highest dividend yield, putting us in the bottom 10 percentile of dividend payers. While it's up to the market and investors to ultimately determine valuation, I believe there are several compelling points to the Crown Castle story that make the case for a lower dividend yield, and with it, a higher valuation. First is the quality of our business model and long-term positive industry tailwinds. As has been true since the early days of the wireless industry, network quality continues to be the market differentiator for carrier success, driving continued long-term investments by the carriers. As such, we believe we are in a multi-year densification cycle that continuously requires all four major U.S. wireless carriers to make significant investments to improve and enhance their networks in order to meet consumer demand for mobile broadband, in order to remain competitive. It's also clear that as network capacity and speed increases, new applications and services, such as mobile video, the connected car, and more broadly the Internet of Things, are developed the promising new avenues for carriers to monetize their network investments. Our results to date and our expectations for the balance of 2015 and 2016 further reinforce our view, and demonstrate how well positioned we believe we are to capitalize on the opportunities in front of us. For some context, and highlighting the opportunity the carriers have in front of them, the growth in mobile data traffic in the U.S. from 2016 to 2017 is expected to equal all the mobile data traffic that was carried on cellular networks in 2014. Mobile data is expected to double every two years through 2019, the furthest date that Cisco forecasts. In fact, earlier this week on Verizon's earnings call, they mentioned they've seen a 75% growth year-over-year in mobile data usage across their subscribers. As a shared wireless infrastructure provider, we benefit from growing demand for mobile broadband as carriers access our infrastructure to provide service for their subscribers. Underlying the shared infrastructure model is our ability to generate returns by leveraging our fixed investment and operating expenses over multiple tenants, with each tenant benefiting from the capital-efficient model we present. In turn, our value proposition to the carriers is that we provide them with the quickest and most cost-effective access to infrastructure and real estate as they deploy and upgrade their networks. As a case in point, we were encouraged by the roadmap that FirstNet has established to seek industry partners in a public-private partnership to facilitate a nationwide public safety network deployment, potentially in 2017. Although still very early, we believe our shared infrastructure portfolio will play a meaningful role in the efficient deployment of this network. This brings me to my second point. We believe that the portfolio we have built and invested in over the last 20 years uniquely positions us to play a critical role in helping carriers with their network needs. In particular, over the last several years we have focused our investments in the U.S., with the acquisitions of T-Mobile and AT&T towers and continued investments in the small cell business, based on the thesis that there is a long runway of investments that need to be made in the U.S. by wireless carriers, and a consumer base that will support it. Today, our portfolio of approximately 40,000 towers and 15,000 small cell nodes supported by 16,000 miles of fiber makes us the only company that can deliver at scale and provide comprehensive wireless solutions across the U.S. for carriers. Our towers are well located, with three-quarters of our portfolio in the top 100 markets, and have a long runway for additional organic growth with only two tenants per tower on average, suggesting a significant amount of leasing opportunity is yet to come. On the small cell front, we are capitalizing on our leadership position to secure some of the best assets where we believe there will be a long-term franchise value that will drive future co-location, upgrade, and co-location opportunities similar to the early days of the tower industry 20 years ago. With small cells, we believe we are skating to where the puck is headed, as the theme of network densification continues into the future, and in so doing, extend our runway of growth and further reinforcing our leadership position in U.S. wireless infrastructure. Together, the strength of our business model and the quality of our assets translates into a growing high-quality, long-term recurring cash flow stream. Today our average tenant lease term is about seven years, and is backed by committed contractual lease payments of $20 billion, which provides stable and predictable contracted cash flows supporting our dividend payout. As we look to grow the dividend in the future, we benefit from contracted tenant lease escalators, which provide half of our stated goal of organic 6% to 7% growth in AFFO per share. As it relates to the other half, given the need for continued investments by our carriers – customers, and the quality of our portfolio, we believe that we can achieve our stated goal of growth through leasing on our portfolio of towers and small cells. Said another way, including the dividend, approximately three quarters of our expected total return goal in already contracted in any given year. Quality of our cash flows is further highlighted by the focus in the U.S., where we benefit from what we believe is an attractive operating and investing environment that has a degree of visibility and long runway of growth without foreign currency exposure that can impact returns. Our goal as a management team is to provide our investors with the most compelling risk-adjusted long-term total shareholder returns, as measured by dividend growth over time. To close, we are very pleased to be in a position to raise our outlook and dividend by 8% as we approach 2016, which reflects the quality of our assets, the expertise of our team, and positive fundamentals of the U.S. wireless industry from which we benefit. And with that, operator, I'd be happy to turn the call over to questions.
Operator:
Thank you. And we'll go ahead and take our first question from David Barden with Bank of America.
David William Barden:
Hey, guys. Good morning. Thanks. Nice results out this morning. I would say that the big conversation that we were having last night after the print was really trying to think about next year's growth. So, in the first quarter to the second quarter, we saw about $6 million of sequential site leasing and management revenue. In the third quarter, backing out Sunesys, it was probably $12 million. In the fourth quarter, backing out Sunesys again, the implication is you're looking for $8 million. And then if I annualize the fourth quarter and look at 2016, the implication is that you're only going to be getting $4 million of incremental revenue to get to the midpoint of the future guidance. And so, I don't think people think that the industry is slowing down. But if you could kind of help us figure out how we get from still robust growth to what appears to be a rapidly decelerating sequential revenue growth guide, it would be super helpful. And then, just the second question would be – and maybe it's related, is relative to 2015, it looks like the straight-line revenue is coming down a lot. And if you could kind of address what contracts, or kind of what is the driver of that function, it'd be great. Thanks so much.
Jay A. Brown:
Sure, Dave. On the first question, anytime I think you go quarterly sequential changes in revenue, particularly in the periods where we've had the disposition of Australia and then as you think about us rolling into Sunesys, that may be a little distracting to look at it quarter-to-quarter on that. I would point you to full year. And our underlying assumption in terms of tenant activity, as I mentioned in my comments, is right around the tenth of a tenant that we would expect to add in 2016. We're expecting basically that same level of leasing activity in 2015. And one of the ways that you could point to it, outside of talking about it in terms of tenant adds per tower, is our underlying assumption is that on the tower side, we'll have about $115 million of tower leasing growth from 2015 to 2016, and virtually that same number from 2014 to 2015. So the assumption we're giving you here for the outlook in 2016 driving the top line number, our view is that we're basically holding that assumption the same in 2015 and 2016, and would expect the year to kind of play out that way based on the total activity we can see to date. In the second question, the straight-line revenue number that you see decreasing, in essence what you see is the non-cash portion of that straight line revenue decreasing. And the reason for that is the annual cash escalator that's embedded in our leases. And so, we would expect that number to continue to decrease, and you can roughly approximate that number by taking our adjusted organic site rental revenue and then looking at the escalator of roughly about 3%. And absent any changes, and obviously there's always changes because we're assuming additional revenue adds next year, but absent those changes, that number's going to go down by the equivalent of about 3% on an annual basis. So, straight-line's decreasing in essence because of the cash escalator that we have embedded in those leases. We would expect that number to continue to decrease to about 2017, 2018, at which point we would expect cash revenue received from tenants to actually exceed our GAAP revenue. So I think the trend line that you're seeing in that is something that we would expect to continue for the foreseeable future.
David William Barden:
And, Jay, if I could just follow-up real quick. Obviously we started out this year pretty soft, and we've been seeing in your – as you kind of waterfall the numbers for us, it's been about 5.3% and then 5.9%, and now in this quarter 6.4% organic site leasing revenue growth, and yet you're still next year guiding to kind of the same absolute dollar number of revenue, irrespective of the fact that the revenue growth has been accelerating this year. Are you trying to point to some specific deceleration in one of the growth drivers that's been leading to the accelerating revenue year-to-date, or is this just trying to be conservative?
Jay A. Brown:
I think, Dave, as we went into calendar year 2015, our working assumption was that tower revenue growth was going to be somewhere in the neighborhood of about $90 million to $100 million of new leasing activity, be that from brand new leases as well as amendments. And as we've gone through the balance of 2015, we've actually increased that assumption by about 10% to 15% roughly, to get to the $115 million of expectation. And then we're going to hold that into our 2016 guide, based on the activity that we would expect to continue from the carriers throughout 2016.
David William Barden:
Thanks, Jay.
Operator:
And next we'll go to Simon Flannery with Morgan Stanley.
Simon Flannery:
Okay. Thank you very much. Good morning. I'm just continuing on that theme about the 2016 guidance. You were talking about the activity you've seen. Clearly, this year we had two carriers very active and two carriers pretty quiet. Are you getting any sense that we can go to a more balanced environment in 2016, or is it just too early for you to actually bake that into your guidance? So could there be some upside as, I guess, say Sprint got some financing or AT&T resumes their sort of normal level of capital spending? And then, I do see you're suggesting services gross margin down $40 million, and with some of that related to the decommissioning coming down. How much of the $40 million is the decommissioning versus just another level – a lower level of activity being assumed going forward? Thanks.
W. Benjamin Moreland:
Yeah. Hey, Simon, it's Ben. I'll take you back a few years, and for many of us on this call, I think you remember this. We used to really refrain from speaking with really any specificity around carrier deployment plans. And over the last couple of years, we've sort of relaxed that standard, and probably spoken a little bit too much occasionally around specific carrier deployment plans. And as a result, I've been asked by a few of our friends and customers if we would refrain from talking about their specific plans, and let them do their own talking about their deployment plans. And I think that's a perfectly reasonable request, and frankly a pretty good reminder of the way we used to do things. So, unfortunately, the way I'm going to answer your question, you may not be completely satisfied with, but when we give you the $115 million of tower rental growth – again, consistent to 2015 – that takes into account everything that we expect to see out of the combination of all four carriers, as we know it, as we sit here in late October of the prior year. And as you certainly note, because you've modeled the company very thoroughly, if we saw a tick-up inside the year next year from a particular carrier or two, that would have a relatively small financial impact inside that year, obviously being more impactful into 2017. But all within the range of this sort of range that Jay gave you in his prepared remarks of kind of up or down 20% is sort of what we've seen back for the last seven years. And that up or down 20% goes back to when all four carriers were building out LTE, to a time when maybe they were a little bit slower. And that up or down 20% would be about 1% change in AFFO per share growth. So, I think we've given you all the detail you need, and particularly in the supplement , we'll show you quarter-to-quarter changes in revenue from the carriers so you can certainly see it on a trailing basis, sort of who's doing what. But I'm really going to try to not really speak about specific terms of sort of who's doing what in the marketplace because it's certainly – a lot of that is proprietary information.
Simon Flannery:
Okay. But your basic message is, you're currently modeling about a similar level of activity?
W. Benjamin Moreland:
Yeah.
Simon Flannery:
The carriers ...
W. Benjamin Moreland:
That is the absolute message, is that we're modeling off of the activity we've seen in this year, which is – as Jay suggested, has ramped through the year and we are seeing application volume sort of ramp as we come in to the fourth quarter, and that is all taken into account in our expectations. And again, we try to stay with whole numbers, because you lose a few percentage points, a few basis points on the larger base every year, when you're just looking at percentages. And then on your service gross margin question, down $40 million, yeah, that's one-timers that occurred in 2015 around pay-and-walk fees and a few other things that we don't expect to repeat in 2016. So importantly, our sort of core service contribution in the 240 to 250 range is the core contribution we're seeing this year. So we're looking at it to be comparable to 2015.
Simon Flannery:
Great. Thanks a lot.
Operator:
And next we'll go to Phil Cusick with JPMorgan.
Philip A. Cusick:
Hey, guys. Thanks. Two things. One, to follow up on David's question, and not any particular carrier, but it seems like it's been about five years since you signed some of the MLAs that we've talked extensively about in the past. Do any of those expire in 2016? And how should we think about the GAAP and cash impact as those roll off? And then second, Ben, can you follow up on your comments about FirstNet? And just expand on the opportunity here and how you see the architecture of shared versus proprietary network that they're planning?
Jay A. Brown:
Phil, on your first question, the structures that we had signed up with the carriers where they were committing to a certain level of leasing and going ahead and paying us for that in advance of actually putting equipment on the towers, those have virtually completely been used up at this point. So I think we talked about, going into 2015, we were expecting somewhere in the neighborhood of about 10% of the activity in total on amendments that would have already been provided for and we're already being paid for in the structure of those agreements. Today, virtually every lease we have where the carriers are putting additional equipment on the tower is adding additional site rental revenue to the mix. So we're really past that stage at this point. And as we think about the 2016 activity, we're not really factoring in any amendments that would not bring additional site rental revenue.
Philip A. Cusick:
Got it.
W. Benjamin Moreland:
Phil, on your comment around FirstNet, look, I'm encouraged. The webinar earlier – the webcast earlier, a few days ago, indicated for me a pretty clear road map of time lines and dates to launch a deployment here, in the way that we've always felt like is the most efficient. And from their point of view, I think they've suggested that it will only consume about 5% of the spectral capacity of their spectrum on any given day, and so that's a tremendous opportunity for the industry to use that remaining spectrum, high-quality spectrum. And as a result, there's going to be a fairly complicated and yet unknown RFP process to go through exactly what will a carrier or a collection of carriers by market, maybe splitting it out, pay for it, and what's it's worth to them? And that part is not clear and still very complicated, and I think presents a fair amount of uncertainty still. But I do believe they're on the right track of looking at a shared network that will likely be hosted across one or multiple carriers' networks, which we certainly can accommodate and expect to participate in and use our infrastructure to do so in a very efficient way. So, I think in previous calls we basically said we don't have any clear direction. I think we now have some clear direction about where they're headed, and that's encouraging, albeit it's probably not financially material into, really into 2018, because if you're probably starting on deployments mid-2017, wouldn't have any real financial consequence probably until you get into 2018. But we're encouraged.
Philip A. Cusick:
Thanks, guys.
Operator:
Next we'll go to Ric Prentiss with Raymond James.
Ric H. Prentiss:
Thanks, guys. One quick follow-up to Phil's. Jay, not just the MLAs, but you guys mentioned how you bought T-Mobile towers and AT&T towers. I think there was some reserved space or future space in those deals as well. So, MLAs and M&As, you guys are pretty much through any free space, if you will?
Jay A. Brown:
That's correct, Ric. My answer would apply to both situations.
Ric H. Prentiss:
Okay. Great. And then I want to dig a little deeper on Sunesys and small cells, if I could, so I apologize for going a little deeper dive. On Sunesys, I think you were guiding to about $75 million in gross margins and $60 million or so in EBITDA after G&A. When the deal was announced, you thought the first year of Sunesys, gross margins might be more $80 million to $85 million and EBITDA might be more $60 million to $65 million. So, what has happened in Sunesys, given that we closed the deal early and a little lower number for calendar 2016?
Jay A. Brown:
Yeah, Ric, it just has to do with the way they classified direct operating expenses and G&A, as compared to the way we would do it. So when we got in and started to figure out how we would reflect the results of the business, we did it consistent with the way we would look at towers, and reflected some of those expenses in different categories. So the net number is unchanged. We just – we moved some of the expenses from direct operating expenses and G&A in order to match the way we think about it on the tower side, to be consistent.
Ric H. Prentiss:
Okay. And you've mentioned where you hoped that there's some meaningful ability to get small cells on top of it? It looks like the guidance is still kind of business as usual at Sunesys, as far as their legacy. Have you assumed any small cell extra growth onto that asset?
W. Benjamin Moreland:
Yeah. So, Ric, the way we're thinking about the Sunesys asset today is really inventory, and I'd be thrilled to come on the call in a couple of quarters and tell you that the activity has ramped beyond what we're seeing today, but the way we think about it is, we just bought inventory and it's a cost advantage and a speed advantage for deployment of the pipeline that we currently see and what we expect. And so, as we've said, our expectation for small cell revenue growth is about $55 million next year, consistent with what we've seen this year. By implication, you can say the pipeline looks steady. If it were to grow from there, then terrific, and that's kind of what we are pursuing. And we have a lot more inventory with which we can deploy small cells on, again on a very cost-effective basis, because we've essentially – we already own the asset, and on an expedited basis because we don't have to build it. But right now, we're not guiding to an incremental increase in revenue contribution from there today. Now, your last question is around Sunesys specifically. I would say, having owned it a very short period of time, there's a very modest amount of revenue growth within the Sunesys traditional business, but that's not core and not something that we would spend a lot of time focusing on with you.
Ric H. Prentiss:
Makes sense. And last question is, when you look at the CapEx that you spent within the quarter, I think it was about $98 million for new builds, primarily all of it small cells, should we think about still that old rule of thumb about $100,000 per node if it's a new node? We haven't seen a lot of change in the node count, still 15,000 approximately last quarter and this quarter. We're just trying to get our model correct as far as, as you spend CapEx on the small cell, when does it roll into being nodes on the air and the revenue coming in?
Jay A. Brown:
Yeah. You're right about the $100,000 per node. That's the best way to model the business, and consistent with our expectation. As we've reflected the nodes, we've shown that number as a combination of nodes under construction and those on air, and rounded it. And so you haven't seen it move, but that would just be inside of the rounding of 15,000.
Ric H. Prentiss:
Okay. And you know me, I'd love to get some more segment details on small cell as far as revenues, margins, and actually some quantity. So as you consider now, it's 11% of the business pro forma, hopefully someday we'll get some more details?
W. Benjamin Moreland:
Yeah, Rick. We're continuing to look at that, and provided obviously some pretty meaningful detail in the slides that I talked about and then also in the supplement. As we're going through the process of integrating Sunesys, we're re-looking again at kind of our operating reporting relationships and the best way to operate the business, and then the best way to reflect and review the results ourselves. And that may result in us doing disclosures a little differently than what we've done historically. But we are trying as much as we can to provide you the information you need to evaluate how well the business is operating.
Ric H. Prentiss:
We'll take just some decimal points too, probably. Anyway, thanks, guys.
Operator:
Next, we'll go to Michael Rollins with Citi Investment Research.
Michael I. Rollins:
Hi, thanks for taking the questions. Two if I could. First, could you go back to the slide where you walk through different revenue drivers for 2016? And can you talk about how much of the internal growth in 2016 is generated by Sunesys versus the amount that you have in the external growth bucket? And then the second question I had, just taking a step back on leverage, can you talk a little bit about why you think it's so important to drive towards investment grade credit metrics and try to get an investment grade credit rating? And have you modeled the alternative, if you didn't do that, maybe what your leverage or AFFO growth per share might look like in the alternative? Thanks.
Jay A. Brown:
Yeah. On your first question, Mike, when we talk about the $115 million in tower leasing and the $55 million in small cell leasing, you should think about that as basically our legacy business prior to the acquisition of Sunesys. And the benefit that we'll have in Sunesys is over in the acquisition category of roughly $60 million. I assume you're referring to slide 8 in your question there. So, the way to think about that I think is pretty consistent with what we've done in 2015, similar assumptions in 2016. On your second question around investment grade, we have spent a lot of time working on that and run the exact analysis that you articulated between remaining non-investment-grade versus investment grade. And I would say for a long period of time, Ben and I have held the view that the value creation is driven in our business over the long term by three different areas. One of those is obviously organic leasing on the assets that we already own. Secondly, by the way that we allocate capital; and today, we're obviously allocating a meaningful portion of capital to what we believe to be growth-enhancing around small cells. And then thirdly, by reducing and taking actions that reduce the overall expected cost of equity in our business. And there are a lot of aspects of that that have implications in terms of how we operate the business. One of those, which we've obviously spent the last several years talking a lot about, is our focus on the U.S. market and our unwillingness to go to emerging markets. And as we think about the business that we're running, it's a growing annuity of cash flow payments out of the various wireless carriers. And underlying that is obviously the credit quality and stability and predictability of those cash flows coming from those wireless operators. And our view is that over time, as the story is better understood, the understanding of that risk should necessarily reduce the overall cost of the equity. Commensurate with that is having a balance sheet that, regardless of market conditions, has access – free access to the capital markets. And we believe the investment grade credit rating, as much as the rating is, is an indication of how we manage the balance sheet. So that in maybe less favorable times than we are currently in the capital markets, we would maintain the access and there would never be a question about whether we would be able to pay the dividend if we were in a relatively choppy capital market. So it's a combination of factors, but we think it has implications longer term as we think about lowering the cost of the equity and driving long-term returns to shareholders.
W. Benjamin Moreland:
I would just add one thing, Mike, if you will. If you run out the model long term, which we have, staying levered like we used to, it makes a very insignificant difference to the overall return, and obviously increases the risk profile materially, as Jay just walked through, in times when markets are disrupted. The other thing I would say though, just more broadly about our business, as we've all worked on this for a long time, we have a fabulous business model around shared infrastructure, where it's generally cheaper for a carrier to occupy one of our facilities and benefit from the capital efficiency of sharing than it is to do it themselves. We can sort of get double benefit out of that, to the extent our absolute cost of capital can be less than our carrier customers, where you are less reliant on co-location over time to the extent you can demonstrate over time that your absolute cost of capital is less than the carrier customers because of the nature of our cash flow being long term contracted, with escalators, out of what we believe has always been the most senior secure cash flow stream coming out of the wireless industry, which is that to operate their network. So that's a long-term aspirational goal. I wouldn't suggest to you we're there yet, but it's something that we've had – we always take a long-term view. And I think the next sort of generation of this business will be that we will have an absolute cost of capital, including total return expectations on our equity, that's lower than our customers'. And that's a wonderful place if we can ever get there, and that's what we're pursuing.
Michael I. Rollins:
Thanks very much.
Operator:
And we'll go to Brett Feldman with Goldman Sachs.
Brett Joseph Feldman:
Hi, thanks. Just two quick follow-ups. With regard to Sunesys, you know how you're not really trying to grow the existing business, but could you just remind us about the durability of those existing customer relationships, meaning so you maybe continue to run rate that $100 million-plus of revenue? And then you noted that there's going to be about a $35 million increase in spending. I was hoping we could get a little more detail on what's behind that.
Jay A. Brown:
Sure. We think the revenues are very durable. The growth rate there in escalations roughly is about 3% on an annual basis. So, we would expect to see some uplift there. And then contracted terms is about five years. So a little less than what we see on the tower side, but still, nonetheless, pretty long term in nature.
Brett Joseph Feldman:
And on the increase in spending you're expecting next year?
W. Benjamin Moreland:
You mean expense growth? Is that what you're asking?
Brett Joseph Feldman:
Yes, the expense growth, yes.
Jay A. Brown:
Yeah. That's a little less than 3%. If you look at total direct operating expenses and G&A, it's about 2.8% increase in expenses year-over-year, excluding obviously what we're bringing on from Sunesys.
Brett Joseph Feldman:
Is some of that related to the small cell business, or is it just the normal inflation in costs?
Jay A. Brown:
Yeah, normal inflation in costs. We would see that across the business.
Brett Joseph Feldman:
And, I guess, I will just ask one quick follow-up along that. I mean, how do you feel about the spending growth around the small cell business? You had noted previously that the spending was growing more rapidly than, say, the rest of your overhead expense as you were growing the business. I mean, at what point are we going to start to see that level off and maybe get a bit more operating leverage from the growth in your Dash revenues?
W. Benjamin Moreland:
Well, Brett, you're seeing that today, which is kind of the point I made in my prepared remarks about the 80% incremental margins. For the last several years as we were really building out the overall infrastructure for small cells, as well as integrating the large tower acquisitions that we did, we saw spending on increasing span of control and management level folks, in addition to the more operating level jobs that we put in place in order to operate those assets, and so our incremental margins came down from what we've seen historically. As we think about 2016 though, we think about it in a much more normalized basis as, again, from an operating cost standpoint, that coming down much more in line with what we've seen historically in the business, just under 3%, and therefore, the incremental margins that we see on the incremental revenue being put into the business is coming out at about 80%.
Brett Joseph Feldman:
Okay. Thanks for taking the questions.
Operator:
Next, we'll go to Colby Synesael with Cowen & Company.
Colby A. Synesael:
Great. Two lines of questioning. You mentioned I think in response to Simon that you're seeing some increase in application volume. I was wondering if we could just kind of parse through that. So, is that fairly even across all four carriers? Are you seeing one or two carriers potentially carrying the torch there? Also -- but you don't have to tell us which ones! Also, I was trying to get a sense, amendments versus new sites. And then also, has that really been a steady ramp through 2015, or are you seeing some form of slight inflection? And then just the other line of questioning had to do with the acquired churn. We saw in the supplemental that it's assumed to be up in 2016 and 2017 versus what you previously had last quarter. Is that simply some of the pushout that you described, or is there an actual absolute change in the acquired churn that you're now expecting? Thanks.
W. Benjamin Moreland:
Yes. Hey, Colby, it's Ben. Yeah, the churn is no change in the total. It's just sliding from 2015 to 2016, unfortunately, and a little bit into 2017. So obviously we'd rather get it done sooner than later, but it moves a little bit. And it was our best guess when we originally gave you that number. And then in terms of activity, I'll just sort of stick with what I said before. Look, we've got application volume up in the second half of this year. I'm pleased to see what I'm looking at for fourth quarter. But again, I want to tell you that that's in our expectations for 2016. So that $115 million we're giving you is our best view today of what we're looking at. And again, earlier on in the call, even if we started to beat that number, again, 20% up would be technically about 0.5% in the first year, and a full percent or a little more than a full percent in the second year. So, I really think it's a less than productive discussion to go down the path of who's doing kind of what to whom, when we tell you that we've got it all in there, and we'll tell you on a trailing basis exactly by quarter who's doing what in terms of total revenue, so you can kind of see it. And beyond that, I'll really direct it back to our four carrier customers to talk about their specific deployment activity.
Colby A. Synesael:
And just one follow-up to that. Any color, though, on whether it's more amendments versus new sites?
W. Benjamin Moreland:
Pretty similar in what we expect in 2016 to what we've seen in 2015. And I think last quarter we talked about this a little bit, and we talked about the fact that it's returned to a more normalized level, where we're in a neighborhood of about 40% or so of amendments and about 60% from new leases. I don't see anything really changing. It obviously moves around a little bit quarter-to-quarter depending on what work we're working on for which carrier, but somewhere in that neighborhood would be my working assumption for 2016.
Colby A. Synesael:
Great. Thank you. And congrats on the quarter.
W. Benjamin Moreland:
Thanks.
Operator:
Next, we'll go to Jonathan Atkin with RBC Capital Markets.
Jonathan Atkin:
Yes. I was interested in the small cell leasing growth that you're expecting next year, and is most of that going to continue to be anchor tenant growth, or is there any signs of interests and hopes that you could get additional tenancies in the next couple of quarters on that infrastructure? And then more broadly talking about fiber assets, I just wondered if there's an opportunity to modify unused fibers that you wouldn't need in the normal course of your small cell expansions? Thanks.
Jay A. Brown:
Jon, on your first question, the activity we're seeing today, about 75% is related to new builds, and I'm talking specifically to small cells. About 75% is where we're building new systems, and about 25% is lease-up on existing systems, and that would be similar to our assumptions for 2016 that that rate will continue. The other thing I would point to, broadly, is if we look at the level of lease-up activity and compare that to what we're seeing in towers, we're seeing lease-up on small cells occur at a rate faster than that of towers today, across all the small cell networks that we've built. We're about a tenant and a half roughly across those existing systems. And obviously, we've not owned them or built them that long ago. So making the comparison that I made earlier in the conversation in my prepared remarks about adding about 0.1 tenant per tower per year, or one tenant over a 10-year basis, we're ahead of that as you think about the tenancy adds. The other way to think about it is, how are we doing on a yield basis, if you think about the annual recurring cash flow coming off of small cells compared to the total net capital that we put into them. We're building systems, as you've heard us talk about, initial yield of about 6% to 7%. And today, the yields across the entire book of business, considering all of the capital that we've spent, including the amount of capital we just spent on the Sunesys acquisition that came in at about 6% initial yield, the whole book of business is now at about 8.5% yield. So, we have meaningfully increased the yield on those assets, and that's driven almost entirely by the additional lease-up that we've seen on those systems that we've built. So, obviously, we're encouraged about how well the co-location has gone. Some of you may have seen the system that we built in Philadelphia recently. That system went on air, it was a system that we've been working on for about a year or a year and a half or so. It went on air in a densely populated area that got some recent press coverage, went on air with three tenants on it, day one. Obviously that's not our underwriting assumption and it doesn't happen every time, but we're starting to see more and more of the carriers want to co-locate and lease up these systems that are being built in phenomenal areas around the country.
W. Benjamin Moreland:
And then, Jon, on your comment about monetizing unused fiber. That's absolutely something we're looking at. We couldn't put that in guidance yet. But in terms, there's two ways to do that. One would be to contract with third parties, other providers who might want to use it, as we did with Sunesys before we owned them. Or, alternatively, the Sunesys sales force gets turned loose on our fiber that we own, where we can add monetization through additional contracts on that fiber. We're looking at both of those things. We'll probably pursue them both, as that's just prudent to get the return out of the investment. I wouldn't say that's certainly not meaningful in the numbers as we look at and having owned it a couple of months, but it's an opportunity for us nonetheless. Not the core business and not why we did the transaction, but it's revenue and margin none the same that I think we can go out and get.
Jonathan Atkin:
Great. Thanks very much.
Operator:
Next, we'll go to Amir Rozwadowski with Barclays.
Amir Rozwadowski:
Thank you very much. And good morning, folks.
Jay A. Brown:
Hey, Amir
W. Benjamin Moreland:
Good morning.
Amir Rozwadowski:
I wanted to build upon the prior question in terms of co-location opportunities when it comes to small cells. There has been some debate among some of the carriers in terms of the strategy at which they are going to deploy small cells, at least some of the commentary that we've been hearing in terms of their strategy. As you sit today, it does sound like the opportunity set for a certain number of carriers seems to be improving. How should we think about the longer term opportunity? Do you think that some of these technologies are viable over the longer term? Is there going to be a hybrid approach towards some of those small cell deployments, whereby you'll still be able to capture your fair share of co-location opportunities? We'd love to hear your thoughts on that.
W. Benjamin Moreland:
Yeah. Amir, this is Ben. I think we've already seen an evolution in some of the technologies, with some carriers wanting a lit service, what we would think of as a small-cell application versus a dark service – a full turnkey dark service, which is a distributed antenna system, sort of a switch, which the majority of what we have today, and still what we're still deploying today. So think that will happen over time, depending on what particular issue the carriers are trying to address in that location. From where we look at it today, though, we're getting long-term contracts where we're starting with a very healthy initial yield, as Jay just walked you through, and co-location opportunities that are today tracking north ahead of where a traditional sort of tower acquisition would be, and we're doing it in areas where, as you've seen some of the maps, 90% of the activity is in the top 25 markets in the U.S. that we think are frankly beachfront real estate for purposes of these systems, just like we did when we acquired tower portfolios 15 years ago. So, we think it's a terrific long-term objective, but it's location-specific. I mean, there are places where carriers have needs where we've been a little sheepish about going, honestly, because they've been second- and third-tier markets where one particular carrier might have had a need, but it's harder to underwrite when that second or third carrier would have a similar need. And that's just like the tower business by the way. So, we're being pretty careful about where we deploy the capital. And so far, to move the needle as we've moved it, as Jay just walked through, on almost $3 billion of life-to-date capital spend in that business, tracking at about an 8.5% yield today suggests we're on the right path. It is still very early days. We are going to have the capability – we already have the capability, and I think we'll continue to enhance it to accommodate whatever level of architecture or technology the carrier wants to deploy. And it's very clear that backhaul connected to fiber on net is the preferred approach to a durable system that provides sort of scalability in terms of backhaul. And that's what we provide. And so, we're thrilled to death and going about as hard as we can go right now, as we have said before.
Amir Rozwadowski:
Thank you very much. And if I may, one follow-up question, I know we've talked about technology disruption in the industry for some time now, and there's always been percolating conversations around Wi-Fi dislocation and stuff along those lines. Recent news suggests that there is someone of significant heft that may be looking to deploy a service over the near to midterm. How do you think about that in terms of the reality of investment and potential disruption for your market, if that was to come to fruition?
W. Benjamin Moreland:
Yeah. I rely on our history, honestly, and I rely on our carrier customers' view of this topic, which is, we already have more than half of wireless traffic or data on Wi-Fi networks today, and it's a very efficient offload strategy that we all benefit from as consumers. And I think that the wireless carriers with licensed spectrum would have a very hard time supporting all of that if there wasn't an efficient offload strategy. And I think that's going to continue. Verizon talked about it on their call, though. They don't think that's necessarily the path for them going down with licensed spectrum to be able to control the network and the network quality. But I think we as consumers have a view that when you jump off of your contracted carrier network and you get on Wi-Fi, wherever you happen to be, I don't think you have the same expectation of service. And maybe that's a benefit ultimately to the carriers over time. But in order to accommodate the growth in data services that we're all seeing, and we see it in the press every single day with new applications and devices, our view is that it's going to take all commerce. It's going to take towers first and foremost, that we, again, have a belief that we will have every tenant on every tower over the long term. We think there's absolutely no reason – unless there's obviously a competing site, which as you know is very rare in the tower business – that you wouldn't have all four carriers on every tower over time, almost by definition. Obviously we don't give you that in our 2016 guidance, but that's our long-term thesis. Behind that comes then the small cell architecture, where as we've talked about it now for a couple of years, the benefit of the small cell capacity offload is, what it's essentially doing, it's dealing with a hot spot where there's a capacity issue in an urban environment. It's also unloading a macro site and making it more efficient. We think it takes that, in scale, and we think there will be hundreds of thousands of nodes over time. And then on top of that, just to finish out your question, absolutely agree there'll be Wi-Fi capability as there is today. Perhaps we all as consumers will accept a lower threshold of service in a stationary environment, not a mobile environment. But we think it takes all of the above to accommodate the Internet, the broadband Internet usage that we're all seeing in the connected devices, and obviously mobile video.
Amir Rozwadowski:
Thank you very much for taking the questions.
Operator:
And next we'll go to Tim Horan with Oppenheimer.
Tim K. Horan:
Thanks, guys. Just a couple of follow-ups. FirstNet, do you think it can be material, kind of the 120 basis points increase of revenue growth over time? And secondly, on AT&T, it sounds like the reserve capacity got used up a little bit faster than you were expecting. I think definitely faster than what the company was expecting. And I just have one follow-up. Thanks.
W. Benjamin Moreland:
Yeah, Tim. On the FirstNet revenue contribution, I don't know how to model that yet. It's just too early. I don't know who is going to be the winner of the RFP and exactly what the economics are. I think for purposes of your thinking, certainly to the extent it's a discrete application on a tower, that would look like a co-location. And I think they've said upwards of 40,000 sites that they need. We support that and look at what they're trying to accomplish, it sounds reasonable to potentially a little bit low. To the extent it's a shared application where they're going to co-locate, it looks more like an amendment, which we're certainly able to price, and it would an efficient use of the structural capacity on the tower and be very quick to deploy. But I can't – I don't want to sit here and tell you what that mix is going to be yet. I just – there's no way to know at this stage. And with respect to sort of where we are on AT&T and that particular portfolio, I think Jay's comments I'll just probably leave alone. That's probably about as far as we ought to go.
Tim K. Horan:
Great. And then on the small cell side, are you seeing any new competitors coming in to that market, or maybe just as you get more and more experience, your thoughts on the barriers to entry? Thanks.
W. Benjamin Moreland:
Yeah. As I've said before, I think there will be more competitors over time. It's an enormous market, when you start thinking of geographies at the per-city-block level, there's a lot, a lot to get done. And certainly, we can't do it all, and we see other competitors in the market and others that are gaining capabilities. And I think that will happen over time. We're getting long-term contracted terms to amortize the investment. And in terms of the barriers to entry, this is purpose-built fiber. And particularly, with what we're doing today, it's a very high consumer of strands, purpose-built back to a hub location. It's not easily replicated. And so we're very confident that once you get an installed base and it's serving the need of that particular carrier, again, on an efficient basis, we think it's a very sticky business. Not too worried about the long-term barriers to entry here.
Tim K. Horan:
Thank you.
Operator:
And next we'll go to Michael Bowen with Pacific Crest.
Michael Bowen:
Okay. Thank you very much. I think most of my questions have been answered, but maybe I'll hit this. How do you think about – you mentioned Cisco continuing to talk about mobile data doubling each year through 2019. As you think about how the carriers are going to try to handle that, how do you guys go about modeling that into your assumptions going forward? I realized you're only giving out 2016 at this point, but your thoughts on that would be helpful. Thanks.
W. Benjamin Moreland:
Yeah. You know, Michael, we sort of view this one year at a time. I just gave you on the previous question kind of my long-term view on why we bought all these towers and why we think those are still the most attractive and efficient way for carriers to add capacity in a market, and then as we've talked about, pleased with what we're seeing on the small cell site as a complement to that. I think it's very clear, we all have underestimated, probably forever, what the demand would be on the wireless networks, and then what we would need to provide as infrastructure. What I look carefully at – and I think this is going to be interesting to watch, and Verizon talked about it a little bit on their call – is opportunities to start monetizing the network in a different way than what we all traditionally would think of as sort of subscriber, sort of monthly payments. And so, if you want to know kind of what we're watching, that's interesting to us as they generate new revenue streams as a way to further monetize the network. And I realize today that's financially immaterial, but I think that that will ultimately drive the incremental investment in the networks that, obviously, we benefit from.
Michael Bowen:
Then a, one last one. I think a few months ago you said in 2016 you're assuming a mix of about 40% amendments and 60% leases for 2016. If I'm correct on that, can you remind us what 2015 is, and I believe you said that lease ups are up. So, should I assume if 2016 is increased at that 60% for leases over 2015, are you at a 70% run rate kind of as a catch-up right now? How can we think about that right now?
Jay A. Brown:
Yeah. Michael, the expectation for 2015 is honestly pretty similar to that of 2016, so it may move a few percentage points between new leases and amendments, but I didn't mean to imply that we were seeing a big move in the type of applications or the type of activity. Our assumption for 2016 is pretty similar, both in terms of gross dollars as well as the mix.
Michael Bowen:
Okay, great. Sorry, I ran out of questions. I figured I'd give it a shot. Thanks.
W. Benjamin Moreland:
That's all right. We're running past time for everybody, sorry about that. Trying to get everybody in.
Operator:
Next we'll go to Jonathan Schildkraut with Evercore ISI.
Jonathan Schildkraut:
Good morning. Thanks for taking the questions. Two if I may. First, on the leverage side, I'm seeing that leverage ticked up a little bit quarter-over-quarter, and maybe that's because we don't have a full quarter of Sunesys in here to reflect on the EBITDA that you've paid for. But could you give us a little bit of perspective of how we get down to four to five times leverage over the next whatever period of time it's going to take? And then the second question, I just want to circle back on sort of how we could think about revenue-generating CapEx as we go forward. My bad, I didn't do a good job of modeling that this quarter. But would it be fair to maybe think about the $55 million of incremental small cell leasing you're going to get next year? I think, Jay, you said 75% of that is going to be sort of on new systems, so take three quarters of that and then sort of gross it up based on your initial yields of 6% to 7%?
Jay A. Brown:
Yeah. On your first question, Jonathan – thanks for the questions. On your first question around Sunesys, you're right about how to do the leverage calculation. It ticked up a little bit just because we did not have a full quarter of Sunesys in that calculation. We would expect to get down to the four to five times over time through growth in EBITDA. We're not making an assumption that we're going to allocate capital towards paying down debt, but rather just growth in the business as we've laid out kind of our growth forecast. So we think the main growth in the business is going to drive that leverage ratio down over time. On the second question, yes, that is the right way to think about CapEx, as you articulated. We think it's going to be about the same as 2015. And as you think about initial yields on invested capital, that would play out real closely to our guide and flow through of the growth in revenues flowing down to the EBITDA line.
Jonathan Schildkraut:
All right. Thanks so much.
Jay A. Brown:
You bet.
Operator:
Next we'll go to Batya Levi with UBS.
Batya Levi:
Great, thank you. A couple of follow-ups. Throughout this year you saw a delay in the renewal activity, and it's pushed out to next year. I was wondering if you are having any conversation with the carriers today to potentially capture that churn for next year in maybe new MLAs that you could sign with them. And then a follow-up on the CapEx side, can you talk about why maintenance CapEx is coming down next year, and how should we think about maintenance CapEx for the macro sites versus small cells? Thank you.
W. Benjamin Moreland:
Yeah. In terms of specific conversations around renewals and MLAs, I'd tell you there's sort of nothing significant going on at the moment that merits commenting on, and the churn forecast, as we've laid out in the supplement, is sort or our best estimate of kind of where that's going.
Jay A. Brown:
On the second question around maintenance CapEx, it's primarily coming down because we saw during 2015 a meaningful portion of that maintenance CapEx being associated with additional office facilities as we were increasing the employment base for integrating the various assets that we've acquired recently. And so that's the reason for the reduction of about $25 million. If you think about that reduction to where we're giving guidance for 2016, I would tell you about a third of that is corporate related roughly, and then the remaining balance would be on revenue-generating, both towers and small cells. That's probably – as you think about modeling it long term though, I would use 2016 as the run rate assumption, and absent any meaningful acquisitions that we do, that's probably a pretty good run rate for forecasting purposes.
Batya Levi:
Is the maintenance CapEx for small cells a bit higher than macro?
Jay A. Brown:
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Batya Levi:
Got it. Okay. Thank you.
Jay A. Brown:
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Operator:
Next, we'll go to Matt Heinz with Stifel.
Matthew Heinz:
Thank you. Good morning. So, we certainly appreciated the opportunity to go into your Philly small cell network about a month ago, and definitely thought that that was – the three-tenant network was kind of illustrative of the longer-term potential of the business. But I was hoping you could just help us understand the competitive differentiation of your turnkey platform versus others in the market that may be more of just an on-net fiber oriented provider, or just a pure service provider without the fiber?
W. Benjamin Moreland:
Yeah, Matt. And thanks for the comment on the Philly system. We were quite pleased with that. The majority of the work we're doing today is what we would call sort of full turnkey build out, where we're building the nodes and the fiber, as we talked about. There are some of our carrier customers, though, in fact different by market depending on what their individual capabilities are in a particular market, that are wanting to do some of that installation themselves, and essentially just contract with us for the fiber, on the same long-term contracted basis that we've talked about. And we're okay with that. I mean, we're in business to monetize the investment and get a yield off co-location. And we'll accommodate however they want to go through it. We believe over time it will become more apparent that we have sort of unique expertise in what is continuing to be a challenging implementation and construction environment. It's not easy to do this stuff, and we've probably got the biggest team in the country doing this today. But clearly, there are different markets where different carriers want to undertake some of this themselves, and that's completely fine. And to the extent we can be helpful and let them utilize our component, being the fiber, we will do that. So that's kind of how the dynamic is shaping up in the market, and either way works for us.
Matthew Heinz:
Okay, thanks. And then maybe just one follow-up on the small cells. I think we have a pretty good understanding now of what the up-front CapEx and returns look like. But I was hoping to get a better sense of what the ongoing capital intensity is, and maybe the useful life of the carrier equipment on the nodes, kind of in comparison to the traditional tower business?
Jay A. Brown:
Sure. Initially, when we've built one on these systems, the operating expenses represent about 40% of the initial revenues. So, it's about 60% margins out of the gate there. As I mentioned in an earlier question on CapEx, there's very little ongoing maintenance CapEx associated with these systems. Most of the maintenance, if you think about it that way, would be embedded in that 40% of operating cost. Over the longer term, the asset that we typically own in small cells would be the fiber asset. Most of that, as Ben mentioned earlier, is dark fiber. And then the other asset that we would own on the various locations where the tenants are putting their equipment, we would own a cabinet, often referred to as like a shroud, at the location, and the carriers would put the electronics inside of that cabinet or shroud. We have seen already in the early days of the business the carriers come back and upgrade their electronics over time, but re-utilized the cabinet. So there's a pretty good parallel to what we see at the tower sites, in terms of reusing the infrastructure, the cabinets, if you will, or the shelters, and just upgrading the electronics inside. So we don't anticipate a meaningful amount of future CapEx or useful life degradation of the assets that we own. The carriers, we would expect over time to continue to put the capital in to replace their electronics and upgrade, very similar to what they do on the tower side.
Matthew Heinz:
Okay. That's very helpful. Thank you.
W. Benjamin Moreland:
Thanks, Matt.
Operator:
And next, we'll go to Mike McCormack with Jefferies.
Michael L. McCormack:
Hey, guys. Thanks. Not to beat the table too hard on the small cell stuff, but just getting a sense from you guys, if you would, on what you're seeing out there sort of on the ground as that gets deployed, as far as speed to market, is it pacing the way the carriers anticipated it would? And maybe any complexities or hurdles they've had to overcome in building that out?
W. Benjamin Moreland:
Yeah, Mike. It's never fast enough. I'd be quick to speak for our carrier customers and say that they would tell us it's never fast enough. So that's the struggle we have every day, is that when they show up and engage us to build a system or co-locate on a system, it needs to be done sort of tomorrow. And the challenge we all have is that it's all new ground. It's new ground for us in certain markets, it's new ground for the carriers, they haven't done this themselves before either. And we're working through the various permitting and zoning and construction time lines that are required there. So, I'd say we're getting better. We've done more than anybody in the marketplace, and we are certainly getting better and finding ways to gain days back in that cycle. But it's still, some of it is outside of our control. And to that end, we're continuing to work with municipalities and other jurisdictions to continue to gain access and the right of way as quickly as we possibly can.
Michael L. McCormack:
I mean, is that just sort of a blocking and tackling, building-by-building type of thing, Ben, or is it more widespread where you can do it and figure how...
W. Benjamin Moreland:
It depends on the jurisdiction, honestly. A lot of it is construction services, some markets are harder than others depending upon their affinity for wireless service, honestly, and whether or not they want to be supportive of additional wireless capacity in their market or not. And it's why we, a couple of years ago, three years ago, we got federal legislation, 6409 out of congress to help us mandate co-location on towers. It's incredible that that had to be a federal law, but it is. And so, we're still dealing with some of that even at the micro level for small cells, and it's hard to understand why a community wouldn't want to promote wireless broadband in their community. But we're continuing to encounter that, and it's just something that's part of the business and we work through it.
Michael L. McCormack:
Great. Thanks, guys.
Operator:
And next, we'll go to Spencer Kurn with New Street Research.
Spencer H. Kurn:
Hey, guys. Thanks for taking the question. Just to take a step back, I was hoping you could articulate how you get from AFFO per share of 8% growth next year to your long-term targets of 6% to 7%. When I run some calculations, it looks like revenue growth should accelerate by about 100 basis points into 2017 and 2018 just from churn at PCS, LEAP and ClearWire ending. So, any color you can sort of provide on the puts and takes as to your long-term forecast would be really helpful.
Jay A. Brown:
Sure, Spencer. Appreciate the question. As we think about the 8% growth that we have going into 2016, as I mentioned in my earlier comments, we expect about 1.5% of that is coming from the acquisition that we did in Sunesys. So on an organic basis, if you will, or a normalized basis, we've got about 6.5% to 6.6% growth coming out of the business. You're right to note from the supplements that we've provided that churn comes down, and what we attempted to do when we set the long-term target of 6% to 7% AFFO per share growth rate, we tried to, as best we could, look at the landscape of all the things that could go positively for us, as well as negatively, into that number, and give you an all-in robust view of what would happen at the AFFO per share. And our best estimates would include that runoff of churn, which we're certainly expecting, a non-renewal that you're illuminating. But we're also, as we think about interest rates in the business, we're running that model assuming the forward interest rate curve. So, we would assume that there will be some negative impact as rates rise over time, and that would, in essence, offset some of the benefits that we would expect to see over time from the non-renewals. So, we're trying to, as best we can, give you an all-in view, a robust view as we think about modeling the business ourselves and running our corporate model. And so, there's some of that impact. There is one other thing that you should think about as you're modeling 2017, and think about the growth rate from 2016 to 2017. The preferred instrument that we did a couple of years back, that actually converts, mandatorily converts to equity at the end of 2016. That has a drag on growth and AFFO per share of about 100 basis points. So as the dividend goes away, if you will, which we're including currently as a deduction to AFFO, and then the shares go into the denominator of the number of shares outstanding, if you will. So, that probably will help you bridge a little bit, and maybe some of the puts and takes you should think about to match your forecast closer to what we're thinking about long term.
Spencer H. Kurn:
Thanks.
W. Benjamin Moreland:
I think we have time for maybe one more question this morning.
Operator:
Okay. We'll go to Walter Piecyk with BTIG.
Walter Piecyk:
Thanks. I just wanted to go back to Amir's question, I think that was last hour. Your answer was extremely bullish on data growth. It's actually similar to what Malone has talked about, as far as we're going to need cell sites and small cells and Wi-Fi, everything. So I guess the question is, have you talked to the cable operators or Google about accessing your fiber for their Wi-Fi hotspots? I mean, it's a version of a small cell itself. I wonder if that dialogue has begun. Because if you believe in that future, which you guys obviously do, and I think others do as well, shouldn't those conversations be happening about now?
W. Benjamin Moreland:
Yeah. Walter, all I'll say is we've talked to a lot of people about our fiber, and it's gotten attention from a lot of folks that we've got a significant amount of metro fiber holdings now, exactly in the places where you, as you've identified, people are going to want it. That goes back to the monetization of fiber question, and absolutely something we're looking at. I can't put anything in guidance today, and I'm not going to use any proper names about exactly who we're speaking to. But that's something over time that I think there's a revenue opportunity, and we've got...
Walter Piecyk:
But it's reasonable to assume that those dialogues are – I mean, I'm not asking you whether...
W. Benjamin Moreland:
Yeah, it is. It is.
Walter Piecyk:
Yes. Okay. And then just one other question on – yeah. And one other question on small cells. If you think about the wireless – the four wireless operators, if there's upside next year in your small cell business specifically, do you suspect that it's going to be more from an existing guy getting more aggressive, or that that business model will extend to the operators that maybe are not as embracing of small cells?
W. Benjamin Moreland:
I'd say both. I'd say both.
Walter Piecyk:
Okay. Great. Thank you.
W. Benjamin Moreland:
That's what happens.
W. Benjamin Moreland:
Hey, listen. We really wore everybody out this morning, and I appreciate those that have hung on the call. We wanted to make sure we got to everybody. Very much appreciate you joining us today. We're thrilled to death about this sort of first anniversary of raising the dividend as we have, 8% here today, which is very significant as we continue to differentiate our business model and our objectives going forward. We think it's a very compelling story, and we'll talk to you again next quarter. Thank you.
Operator:
And this concludes today's conference. Thank you for your participation.
Executives:
Son Nguyen - VP, Corporate Finance Benjamin Moreland - Chief Executive Officer Jay Brown - Chief Financial Officer
Analysts:
Jonathan Atkin - RBC Capital Markets Michael Rollins - Citi Philip Cusick - JPMorgan Simon Flannery - Morgan Stanley Ric Prentiss - Raymond James Brett Feldman - Goldman Sachs Kevin Smithen - Macquarie David Barden - Bank of America Merrill Lynch Colby Synesael - Cowen & Company Jonathan Schildkraut - Evercore ISI Amir Rozwadowski - Barclays Michael Bowen - Pacific Crest Batya Levi - UBS Spencer Kurn - New Street Research
Operator:
Good day, and welcome to the Crown Capital International Q2 2015 Earnings Conference call. Today's conference is being recorded. At this time, I'd like to turn the conference over to Son Nguyen. Please go ahead, sir.
Son Nguyen:
Thank you, Audra, and good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us today as we review our second quarter 2015 results. With me on the call this morning are Ben Moreland, Crown Castle's Chief Executive Officer; and Jay Brown, Crown Castle's Chief Financial Officer. To aid the discussion, we have posted supplemental materials in the Investors section of our website at crowncastle.com, which we will refer to throughout the call this morning. This conference call will contain forward-looking statements which are subject to certain risks, uncertainties and assumptions, and actual results may vary materially from those expected. Information about potential risk factors which could affect our results is available in the press release and the Risk Factors section of the company's SEC filing. Our statements are made as of today, April 23, 2015, and we assume no obligations to update any forward-looking statements. In addition, today's call includes discussion of certain non-GAAP financial measures. Tables reconciling these non-GAAP financial measures are available in the Supplemental Information package in the Investors section of the company's website at crowncastle.com. Unless otherwise indicated, our results and outlook that we will be discussing on this call reflects the Australian subsidiary as a discontinued operation. As such, all contributions from the Australian subsidiary has been removed from our historical continuing results and outlook, including for periods prior to May 28, 2015 when we completed the sale of our Australian subsidiary. With that, I'll turn the call over to Jay.
Jay Brown:
Thanks, Son, and good morning, everyone. The second quarter was another great quarter for our business. Based on the strong results we achieved during the second quarter and our view for the remainder of the year, we are raising our full-year outlook for 2015 for site rental revenues, site rental gross margins, adjusted EBITDA, and AFFO. While I'm going to spend a significant portion of my prepared remarks walking through the various impacts of the two transactions that we announced during the second quarter, I would like to summarize my comments by highlighting, first, that our base business is performing better that our previous expectations. And secondly, the net impact of the sale of our Australian subsidiary and the acquisition of Sunesys is expected to basically be a push with respect to run rate, AFFO per share as we exit 2015. We believe the combination of these two transactions is additive to our long-term growth rate and further solidifies our leadership position in the U.S. market for wireless infrastructure. By many measures, the U.S. wireless market is the most attractive market in the world for wireless investment, driven by consumers who have a seemingly insatiable appetite for mobile data and the need for wireless to carriers to invest to meet such demand. Based on the quality of our portfolio of towers and small cell networks, we believe we are uniquely positioned for the long-term to help carriers further densify their networks to keep pace with consumer demand. And we are well-placed to provide shareholders with predictable, long-term AFFO and dividend per share growth. Turning to our second quarter results on slide 4, site rental revenue grew 4% year-over-year, from $711 million to $737 million. Organic site rental revenue grew 6% year-over-year, comprised of approximately 10% growth from new leasing activity and cash escalations, net of approximately 4% from non-renewals. Moving to slide 5, adjusted EBITDA and AFFO exceeded the high-end of our previously provided second quarter 2015 outlook, driven by higher than expected network services gross margin contribution, inclusive of $7 million of equipment decommissioning fees. Turning to investment activities, as shown on slide 6, during the second quarter we invested $219 million in capital expenditures. These capital expenditures included $27 million in sustaining capital expenditures and $28 million in land purchases. During the second quarter, we completed over 600 land transactions, of which approximately 20% were purchases. The remaining transactions were lease extensions averaging approximately 38 years. Today, approximately one-third of our site rental gross margin is generated from towers on land we own and approximately three-quarters on land we owned or leased for more than 20 years. This number increases to 90% when we include ground leases of 10 years or more. Where we have ground leases, the average term remaining on our ground leases is approximately 30 years. Our proactive approach to achieving long-term control of the ground beneath our sites is core to our business as we look to control our largest operating expense and produce growing cash flow over time. Of the remaining capital expenditures, we invested $164 million in revenue-generating capital expenditures, consisting of $103 million on existing sites and $60 million on the construction of new sites, primarily small cell construction activity. Let me turn now to our strategic moves during the quarter. As I previously mentioned, at the end May, we completed the sale of our Australian subsidiary for approximately $1.6 billion. Net proceeds to Crown Castle was $1.3 billion after accounting for our 77.6% ownership, repayment of the intercompany debt owed to us by our Australian subsidiary, and estimated transaction fees and expenses. We expect to utilize approximately $1 billion of our approximately $2 billion net operating loss carry forward to fully offset the tax gains from the sale of our Australian subsidiary. Additionally, as a result of the sale, we expect a significant portion of our common stock dividend distributions during 2015 will be characterized as capital gain distribution. The sale was opportune as it allows us to redeploy capital from a slower growth asset towards an opportunity with an expected higher growth profile in Sunesys. Sunesys owns or has right to nearly 10,000 miles of fiber in major metro markets across the U.S., where we already have a small self-presence today. Sunesys is well-located high-quality fiber footprint, more than doubled our fiber footprint available for small cell deployment. The acquisition of Sunesys is expected to close during the third quarter. Due to the timing difference between the completion of the sale of Australia and the expected closing of Sunesys, we applied the net proceeds from the sale of Australia to pay down our revolving credit facility and term loan. As such, we expect to re-borrow under revolving credit facility and need cash on hand to fund the Sunesys acquisition at the time of closing. Sunesys is expected to contribute approximately $80 million to $85 million to site rental gross margin with approximately $20 million of general and administrative expenses during our first full year of ownership. We believe that as mobile demand continues to grow, carriers will need to deploy small cells in conjunction with macro towers to address network congestion. And while it's still early days, we are seeing evidence that support our investment pieces. Year-over-year, site rental revenues from small cells grew in excess of 30%. Today, small cells represents about 8% of our site rental revenue. Our small cells consists of approximately 7,000 miles of fiber supporting approximately 15,000 nodes on-air or under construction with another approximately 2,300-node opportunities awarded but not yet under construction. Needless to say, we are very excited by the opportunities presented in small cells, which we believe builds on our core competency as the leading provider of U.S. wireless infrastructure, leverages our existing relationships with the wireless carriers and enhances our long-term growth in AFFO and dividend per share. Shifting to financing activities, during the quarter, we paid a quarterly common stock dividend of $0.82 per share or $274 million in aggregate. During the second quarter, we issued $1 billion of securitized notes to refinance other indebtedness. The notes were issued at a weighted average interest rate of 3.5% and a weighted average expected maturity of nine years. Today, our weighted average cost of debt stands at 4.2% with a weighted average maturity of six years with no meaningful maturities until 2017. As of June 30, our total net debt to last quarter annualized adjusted EBITDA is 5.2 times. We continue to maintain our target leverage at 5 times as we remain focused on achieving an investment-grade credit rating. We were pleased that we are recently upgraded to investment-grade by Fitch Ratings, which is an excellent step towards our goal of accessing the investment-grade, unsecured bond market at our holding company. We believe maintaining an appropriate balance sheet will provide us with flexibility to opportunistically pursue growth opportunities, broaden our access to capital, and lower our cost of capital. As we think about funding potential discretionary growth investments that exceed our ability to fund with cash flow and continue on our path towards investment grade with the other rating agencies, we anticipate financing our discretionary investments in a manner consistent with our leverage target, using a combination of debt and equity as appropriate. As such, during the third quarter, similar to many other REITs, we intend to put in place an at-the-market program of $500 million which will give us the ability to opportunistically raise limited equity capital if we have opportunities to make investments that we believe will increase our growth rate and future dividends per share. Obviously, we would only expect to utilize equity or debt to the extent the investments exceeded our ability to fund with cash flow, and we believe were accretive to dividends and growth after factoring in the full cost of the capital raised. Moving on to full-year 2015 outlook on slide 7, we have increased our expectation for the operating results of our business. Compared to our previously provided outlook adjusted for the disposition of Australia, we have increased the midpoint of our full-year 2015 outlook for site rental revenue, site rental gross margin, adjusted EBITDA and AFFO. Our outlook for the third quarter and full-year 2015 does not include the expected contribution from the Sunesys acquisition which again is expected to close during the third quarter of 2015. The increased outlook for site rental revenue and site rental gross margin reflects the strong results from the second quarter and the increase in our expectations for leasing in the back half of the year and an adjustment to the expectation of tenant non-renewals to occur later in the year than we previously expected. It's important to note that our overall expectations for the number of tenant non-renewals during the calendar year 2015, and in aggregate, remain unchanged. Thinking forward to next year, we currently expect the impact from total non-renewals to be approximately $15 million less than what we expect in 2015. More detailed information regarding out contracted tenant leases and expectations for non-renewals is available on our supplemental information package on our website. Turning to adjusted EBITDA, the increased outlook for adjusted EBITDA reflects higher expectations for site rental gross margin and our increased expectations for network services gross margin contribution. Our expectation for network services gross margin compared to our previously provided outlook has increased from approximately $260 million at the midpoint to approximately $275 million to $280 million primarily driven by the strong performance year-to-date. For the full-year 2015, we expect to generate approximately $25 million to $30 million in equipment decommissioning fee, the majority of which we don't expect to repeat in future years. Our third quarter 2015 outlook assumes network services gross margin contribution of approximately $60 million to $65 million with minimal benefit from equipment decommissioning fees. Moving on to AFFO, the increase in AFFO includes the upward guidance and adjusted EBITDA, offset by an increase in sustaining capital expenditures. We expect an elevated amount of sustaining capital expenditures during the second and third quarters as we continue to integrate and digest our significant expansion in the U.S. Our sustained capital expenditure outlook for 2015 of approximately $90 million includes approximately $20 million in facilities investment, which we do not expect to recur in 2016. Wrapping up, as we look at the leasing application pipeline heading into the end of the year, I am looking forward to finishing up the year strong and believe we remain on track to generate annual AFFO growth of 6% to 7% organically. And with that, I'll turn the call over to Ben.
Benjamin Moreland:
Thanks, Jay. And thanks to all of you for joining us on the call this morning. As Jay mentioned, the second quarter was another terrific quarter. We continued our track record of delivering great results driven by a strong leasing backdrop as evidenced by our gross organic site rental revenue growth of 10%. Without going into too much detail on specific carrier deployment plans, we are pleased with what we see both in towers and small cell, and the year is ahead of our original expectations. As noted, we believe we're in a multiyear network densification cycle that will result in all four wireless carriers making significant investments and stand ready to meet their needs across the business. As shown on slide 7, we have a record of execution and growth through various cycles, whether it be macroeconomic or industry-specific cycles. I appreciate that with the sale and discontinued operations treatment, there can be some confusion with our numbers for the quarter and full year. Let me try to simplify this for you. We expect with Sunesys to exit 2015 with run rate AFFO per share equivalent to our expectations prior to the transactions. And we have created the industry-leading portfolio of assets and expertise that is uniquely positioned and focused on the U.S. wireless market. Today we are the only company with the capability to deliver across all means of shared infrastructure to meet the network densification needs of the U.S. wireless carriers. Of course, this includes our 40,000-tower portfolio, 71% of which are in the top 100 markets, our DAS and small cell portfolio with 15,000 nodes supported by 16,000 miles of metro fiber with the addition of Sunesys concentrated in the top 25 markets, and importantly, the capability to deploy its scale for carriers through our nationwide project management services business and implementation expertise. The assembly of this portfolio and expertise has been a long-term objective of the Crown Castle management team. But we are now 100% focused on serving the U.S. wireless market, the most attractive market in the world for wireless investment. Although wireless has become a part of our lives, we still believe we're in the early days of products, services, and business models our infrastructure will ultimately support. Our ability to consistently execute as a function of our business model, the quality of our portfolio with towers and small cell networks, the team that operates the portfolio, and our disciplined approach to capital allocation, and the balance sheet. Our focus remains on co-locating tenants on a long-term committed basis on our shared wireless infrastructure, resulting in increasing yields on our investments, while at the same time, providing the wireless carriers with the most cost-effective access to wireless infrastructure as they seek to intensify their networks to meet growing consumer demand. This demand in the U.S. mobile data market, as reported in a recent Cisco report, grew 63% in 2014, and going forward, Cisco projects a sevenfold increase between 2014 and 2019. As has historically been the case, network investments by the carriers have generally kept up with consumer usage. We believe the launch of robust content-rich video, including live sports, and unbundling of cable or so-called over-the-top TV products available on wireless devices that promises a new leg of growth in mobile data on wireless networks, requiring more spectrum and infrastructure to realize its full potential. Further, we anticipate current or future spectrum licensees beyond the big four wireless carriers will add to our customer base over time. The derivative demand from DISH, FirstNet and others in the future promises to extend our leasing opportunity beyond what is visible today. For context, as explained on slide 8, during the 1990s or the 2G technology cycle, average annual U.S. wireless capital expenditures across all the wireless carriers totaled $7 billion. During the 3G cycle of the 2000s, which can be characterized as the era of basic mobile, e-mail and web browsing, average annual U.S. wireless capital expenditures increased to $21 billion across the carriers. And since 2010 with the deployment of 4G and LTE products for mobile broadband, annual U.S. wireless capital expenditures have averaged $29 billion. Looking forward over the next several years, we believe that the current level of investment by U.S. wireless carriers will be sustained. The U.S. wireless market has one of the most compelling wireless investment stories in the world. With strong unit economics and relatively high ARPU reflecting U.S. consumers' demand for mobile data and their willingness to pay for mobile services, U.S. carriers were able to generate positive incremental returns on their capital investments. The carriers are driven to increase this investment because as has been true since the early days of wireless, network quality continues to be the market differentiator for carriers' success. Based on this long-term need to invest by the U.S. carriers, we have focused our investments over the last several years in the U.S. market. Our towers are well located, but over 70% of our portfolio in the top 100 markets and have significant runway for additional growth with only two tenants on average per tower or what I would consider about a 50% occupancy rate. Towers continued to be the most efficient and cost-effective procure us to add network capacity and coverage and support our bullish long-term view on tower leasing. In addition to towers, we have also invested significantly over the last several years in building out small cell networks, with our latest investment being the pending acquisition of Sunesys, as we've mentioned. Given what we're seeing from the wireless carriers and the challenges they face with bringing more capacity online in many urban and suburban geographies, we believe the deployment of small cells is a critical tool to improving network quality. Similar to towers, we believe some of the best assets will be those that are secured early on where franchise value will help drive future co-locations, upgrade and expansions. And that is why we're so excited about the pending acquisition of Sunesys which will bring our fiber footprint to more than 16,000 miles, more than doubling our presences in the U.S., top U.S. metro markets. For those not familiar with small cells, this is a shareable, wireless infrastructure that provides wireless carriers with a solution to address network capacity constraints where a macro tower site is not available or is insufficient. Small cells are a fiber-fed solution connecting at network of antennas or nodes that allow wireless carriers to get closer to the consumer, increase network density and deploy spectrum more efficiently. Like tower leasing, tenant leases on small cells are typically long-term with 10 to 15 year committed terms with annual escalators. And like towers, our fiber investment for small cells is agnostic to changes in technology. And while it is an oversimplification, small cells can be thought of as a tower laid on its side, a horizontal tower, replacing the tower structure in this example with fiber. At its core, fiber is the critical, shareable element in small cells. The vast majority of our investment in building out a small cell network consists of the investment in fiber. Today, we are building small cell networks with initial yields of 6% to 8% that should result in returns above 20% on just a second tenant, reflecting the operational leverage inherent in the business. As Jay mentioned, we recognize that small cells is in its early stages. And we're using our first mover advantage to extend our leadership in U.S. Wireless infrastructure, leveraging our existing relationships with our customers, and enhancing our long-term growth in AFFO and dividends per share. As is our practice, we constantly evaluate discretionary investments against purchasing our own stock or other available alternatives in the market on a risk-adjusted basis. We believe this disciplined approach maximize the shareholder value over time. We are very excited about the prospects to continue to extend our long and successful track record of growth and value creation. This business has proven itself to be very durable through economic cycles due to our long-term recurring revenue contracts, contracted escalators, and organic growth profile that we enjoy. Our business, combined with very significant dividend payout, is unique in the market yet trades with one of the highest dividend yields among S&P 500 companies. In fact, out of 421 dividend-paying companies in the S&P 500, 377 companies have a lower dividend yield than Crown Castle, putting us in the bottom 10% pile of dividend payers. We believe the current valuation is disconnected from the reality of the high quality, predictable yield and growth that we expect the business to deliver and represents an attractive opportunity for shareholders to benefit. And with that, operator, I've concluded my remarks and would be happy to address questions.
Operator:
Thank you. [Operator Instructions] And we'll go first to Jonathan Atkin at RBC Capital Markets.
Jonathan Atkin:
Yes. Thanks for taking the question. So, I was interested in the small cell expectations for the year on [indiscernible], how much of that is going to be from new deployments and initial tenancy versus second or third tenancies on existing small cell infrastructure? And then secondly, if you could comment on which carriers besides Verizon that you would expect to become most active in leveraging this business?
Benjamin Moreland:
Sure, Jon. As you've seen before, the bright line demarcation between anchor builds and co-location is a little fuzzy in this business because it's typical that you'll have pure co-location with additional laterals built on an existing system. But as a general matter today, I think the best number I can give you is probably about 80% in anchor builds today and about 20% co-location. That's about as close as I can cut it. And we're going to work on obviously getting that more refine for you over time, but we're very, very pleased with what we see. We've seen that significant amount of co-location on the original NextG systems that we acquired three years ago and more to come. And speaking of that, you asked about what are we seeing from other carriers? Well, the most active this year has been Verizon as we talked about it. I think they've confirmed on their own call. But we are seeing activity from all four carriers today. And so - and I would say that's up markedly from a year ago in terms of activity and bookings sort of where we are through the midpoint of the year. We're very excited with what we see right now in terms of the prospects for the future business.
Jonathan Atkin:
Thank you.
Operator:
We'll move next to Michael Rollins at Citi.
Michael Rollins:
Hi. Thanks for taking the question. Two if I could. First, I was wondering if you could talk a little bit about the new revenue that you're getting from the towers specifically, and as you continue to operate the T-Mobile portfolio and the AT&T portfolio that you purchased, is there an opportunity for that new revenue contribution to get bigger over the next few years? And then secondly, just if I could ask on small cells. Do you see a risk that a national carrier might go to a single-source supplier for small cells or become more proprietary in their approach for small cells? Or do you see this being a multiple-supplier opportunity? Thanks.
Jay Brown:
Sure, Mike. Broadly, we are very pleased with the most recent acquisitions of the T-Mobile and the AT&T towers that we've seen. In any given year, as you know, we've got - both been assets a long time. We know that the various carriers do various things across the course of the year. And the most active carriers this year - no surprise I think to anyone on this call - are Verizon and T-Mobile. So, AT&T and Sprint less active thus far, but that gives us no less enthusiasm for what the future holds for all four carriers in terms of making investments to improve their network over time. And that ebbs and flows, and that's what's happening today. But we are seeing activity on both of those portfolios and very pleased with the outcome thus far. Again, it's I guess two and three years in on those, so it's still early days. On the small cell side, I think what we're going to see develop there, and it's already happening, is it's a big world out there. There's going to be a number of competitors; there already are. I think ExteNet, one of our large competitors, announced a transaction this morning in a recapitalization with Digital Bridge. So, I think you're going to - I think it's unlikely any one company frankly has that capability to handle a full-scale deployment for a carrier. I think you could see potentially that on the equipment side, more concentration on the equipment side. But in terms of the infrastructure, it takes - it will take a number of firms and obviously geography matters. And so, if you've got infrastructure in the critical areas where the carriers need it, well, that's going to be more efficient to go on that existing infrastructure just like the tower model. So, it's a big world out there. It's getting larger frankly by the week as we look at additional bookings that we're getting. And I think it's going to be a very healthy and robust market for many years.
Michael Rollins:
Thanks very much.
Operator:
We'll go next to Phil Cusick at JPMorgan.
Philip Cusick:
Hey, guys. Thanks. First, you mentioned activity levels picking up in the press release and you've alluded to this a couple of times, but can you talk about from who and then what ways activity levels are picking up? Is that more for bookings going into 2016 or could we see a little impact in 2015?
Jay Brown:
Sure, Phil. The biggest drivers, as Ben just mentioned this year of leasing activity would be Verizon and T-Mobile, and to a lesser extent, AT&T and Sprint. And we've seen pickup kind of across the board as we've gone through the year, but the weighting has stayed relatively similar among those carriers. Most of the activity that we're seeing in terms of pickup relates to brand new full installations on towers. And the pickup there does have some revenue impact in our second quarter results as we were able to beat sire rental revenue, our expectation for site rental revenue in the second quarter. There weren't any one-time items that really helped us there. We expect that to flow through for the balance of the year, and we slightly raised our expectation for how leasing is going to develop over the balance of the year. That benefits us as we go into, obviously, 2016. The only caution I would have there for you, as we've talked about in previous calls, from a sensitivity standpoint, we're obviously trying to find every lease that we can possibly find and put as many tenants on the towers as we can possibly find, but a meaningful increase in leasing is not that impactful to our overall results. So, this year, 2015, we assume that we're going to see about $90 million to $100 million of revenue growth on towers. If leasing activity were going to pick up by 20%, love to have it and we'll do everything we can to get it, that's about $20 million which would represent about 1% impact to AFFO. So, as we've talked about and set our long-term targets of trying to organically grow AFFO per share in the neighborhood of 6% to 7%, inside of that range, we allow for some movement up or down from the current levels of activity. And we think that's a pretty good band of activity. So, we're seeing a little bit of pickup, had a little bit benefit to it this year at the margin.
Philip Cusick:
Got it. And if I can ask one more, can you talk about the Sunesys deal a little bit. I assume that they're sort of non-Crown revenue will mostly go into services going forward. And how do you think about that growing? I think you've been building up that team?
Benjamin Moreland:
We have been building up a team. The vast majority of their revenue will actually be in our site rental revenues line item. The average term remaining on those contracts is just over five years. So, the terms of the contracts have escalators in them, look similar to what we see on the tower side, the main focus for the acquisition of Sunesys though wasn't necessarily how they utilize the fiber, but our view over the long-term that given the location of this fiber [audio gap] (31:39-31:40) activity, we've seen and opportunities we have in front of us. Currently, there's a lot of opportunity to add small cells across that fiber and increase the yield on that asset. So, most of our focus is really on adding additional small cells to the base of the revenue that's already there.
Philip Cusick:
Got it. Thanks, guys.
Operator:
We'll go next to Simon Flannery at Morgan Stanley.
Simon Flannery:
Thanks a lot. Jay, you talked a little bit about the improvement in leverage and the Fitch upgrades, can you just talk a little bit about where - if you believe - how long do you think it will take one or two of the other rating agencies to upgrade you, and what's the opportunity there on your cost to funding from that? Thanks.
Jay Brown:
Yeah. Simon, I hate to put a date on it. We're obviously been working hard with them, have had numerous conversations with them. I think from a financial policy standpoint, we've been really disciplined as we've accomplished acquisitions over the last several years of maintaining our leverage target and operating within them. Our goal, as I stated during the conversation, is to get the five turns of leverage. We see a path towards that in a relatively near-term as we operate the business and see growth in adjusted EBITDA. As we look at the targets that the other two agencies have published, they would suggest as we get in that neighborhood of that leverage target, then we should see an upgrade towards investment grade. So, we're continuing to have conversations and tell the Crown Castle story and make sure they understand where we're headed and how we're thinking about being disciplined around financial policy. I think you'd have to ask them in terms of exact timing on when it occurs.
Simon Flannery:
And the cost opportunity?
Jay Brown:
The cost opportunity is probably about 100 basis points in terms of spread. So, underlying interest rates, obviously, don't have an impact to that. But the spread we think is 100 basis points and on a good day maybe as much as a 152-basis-point reduction in the overall cost to capital. One of the things that you've heard us talk about in the past is we think it's likely, while we're not going to predict exactly when rates are going to rise, the possibility here over time given the broader environment that we enter into are rising rate environment over the next several years. And one of the reasons why we're focused on getting to the investment-grade target is to mitigate that rise in rates by reducing the overall credit spreads in the business. And so, we think we will be able to mitigate some of that and hope to achieve that rating in the near term.
Simon Flannery:
Thank you.
Operator:
And our next question comes from Ric Prentiss at Raymond James.
Ric Prentiss:
Thanks. Good morning, guys.
Son Nguyen:
Hey, Ric.
Ric Prentiss:
Hey. A couple of questions focused around small cells. Fiber backbone obviously is a large part of the small cell business you guys are doing. We've been picking up some buzz that some carriers are maybe going to consider using spectrum as the primary backhaul mechanism for some small cell deployments. Where is that appropriate? Have you heard anything about that?
Benjamin Moreland:
Yeah, Ric, we're certainly aware of other what would be called small cell architectures, and certainly, they have different applications and different power or different coverage and capacity opportunities at a particular node. I think we're going to see a variety of those be deployed over time. I think you're going to see dark service, lit service, some of it with wireless backhaul, some of it with connectivity directly. And I think you're going to see a lot of that over time for a variety of applications. I can't really get into anything specifically. I realized there are some conversations out there about one carrier and potentially what may be going on. Really can't comment on any of that specifically. But from how we are looking at the business, fiber connectivity will be very important for the vast majority of these connections over time. And even to the extent, you've got microwave backhaul occurring from some small cells, ultimately gets backhauled into a node that's connected to fiber. So, I think the opportunity for us and to provide meaningful capacity enhancements for these networks is ultimately going to continue to reside on fiber-fed systems.
Ric Prentiss:
Okay. And then with Sunesys, I think Jay, you mentioned $80 million to $85 million of gross margins in the first 12 months. How much of that, kind of first 12 months, is the core Sunesys business that you have today? How much of that is then poking small cells on top of that fiber?
Jay Brown:
Ric, almost all of that would be the margin that comes with the business. And our working assumption is that after we close, as is typically the case, it will take us 6 to 12 months to sort of get our feet on the ground and start to produce additional yield on the assets. So, virtually all of that is in the books today and then we'll look to add it once we get it integrated.
Ric Prentiss:
And kind of back to Jonathan's question earlier, organic versus external, will you break out some details for us? I think Jay, you mentioned Sunesys is - most of it is going to show up into the leasing business. How can we get at kind of what Sunesys is coming? Are you going to give us some specific reported segment information maybe?
Jay Brown:
Yeah. I think - as we think about the business and the way we're going to operate it, we'll focus on the Sunesys business as being a small cell business and a part of overall small cell. So, that's how we're thinking about how we plan to operate the business. I think we're always looking in evaluating whether or not something warrants being a separate segment in the business. Obviously, over time, small cells have grown. We see more opportunity for growth there. So, as we integrate Sunesys and grow the small cell business, we'll look at whether or not it warrants being a separate segment in the overall financial statement. I know you've seen this, Ric, but just for the benefit of others. We are providing a significant amount of detail around small cells in the supplement and trying to show both revenue growth on a separate basis there and what we're seeing in small cells. And I think over time, as the business grows, you'll see us continue to expand the amount of detail that we're providing on that business. It's going phenomenally well and we love to telling a good story.
Ric Prentiss:
Great. In iDEN churn, did I pick up that you said, churn was a little slower but expect to come in at where it was for the year? Was there an updated iDEN churn number?
Jay Brown:
iDEN is coming in as we expected. And as we completed the second quarter, we believe we basically have the vast majority of iDEN churn now behind us. It's going to start - continue to obviously roll through the financial statements for the balance of the year as the current run rate has stepped down there. But our expectation there has not changed. The three acquired networks that we - we refer to them as acquired networks which would be the lead to Metro and the Clearwire network. We did take down our expectation for the contribution or amount of run rate revenues that impact us during calendar year 2015. But the absolute number of leases that we see churn there, we think holds from our previous expectations. They're just going to happen later in the year. So, obviously, the impact of that is it will have a little more impact when considering the step between 2015 to 2016. And our best expectation, as we sit here today, we'll give you more full detail on what we think our outlook for 2016 is when we do our third quarter call. Our expectation at this point is we see a step down in the impact from churn next year somewhere in the neighborhood of about $15 million as we look at our outlook for 2016 and the effect of that is basically the runoff of the iDEN churn, as well as little lower less impact from the acquired networks.
Ric Prentiss:
Great. Thanks, Jay.
Operator:
And we'll go next to Brett Feldman at Goldman Sachs.
Brett Feldman:
Thanks for taking the question. You've obviously been growing the DAS business significantly, and I imagine you've been investing in overhead and other operating cost items. Can you give us a sense, I mean, what is the EBTIDA contribution from your DAS business today? And at what point should we expect to see maybe more operating leverage coming out of that segment?
Benjamin Moreland:
Well, Brett, as you know, it's sort of one of my pet projects I shared with my management team. That will spend a lot of time on this that we have, and I appreciate you acknowledging it, when you're growing a business with the opportunity as large as we see, we're not only investing capital but we're investing in run rate overheard G&A. We're investing in people, facilities, everything you've seen. And that's been the case over the last couple of years. I would expect - and we're obviously working on giving you some clarity around that for 2016 outlook. I would expect you're going to start to see more operating leverage in that business as we move into 2016. That's just the nature of we're sort of getting close to being sort of that scale. We are seeing, as we mentioned, significant increase in bookings that it will turn into revenue in 2016 and 2017 and more of that will start to scale. I can't put numbers on it for you today, but that is - trust me, it's sort of our first, second, third priority around here right now.
Jay Brown:
Brett, one of the things that's unique about this business and just going back from a history standpoint, as we look back to the early days of the tower business, the vast majority of the assets that we owned in the early days of the tower business were towers that we acquired from the carriers. So, we did early transactions with Bell Atlantic and GTE and BellSouth. And those towers came with about a tenant and a half and you had scale. The hardest thing to do in the early days, when we were running the business, was building towers because we were out building 1,000 to 2,000 towers a year. And as you put those towers on line, it takes a meaningful amount of G&A to operate just purely the construction portion of the business. And so, when you look at the amount of yields on the assets, if you look out on these two separate activities, one activity is the assets you've already built and then the potential to add cash flows to those assets. As soon as the assets are on line, you start to see incremental returns on those assets. As we add additional capital, though, as we've been doing and build out additional sites, it ends up masking the underlying strength of the business and the expansion of the margins because we're incurring G&A, as well as additional operating expense to build out new systems. So, as we look at the business and think about how it's performing, we focused on both. We're focused on the investment of capital and evaluating each incremental activity or opportunity to invest capital and we're seeing the opportunity there, day one, of somewhere in the neighborhood of about 6% to 7% yield. And then as Ben mentioned in his comments, as we add a second tenant, we see those returns go into the mid-20s. And so, given what we're seeing on the investments we've made, so far, where we believe appropriately focused on looking to expand that, focused on the top markets in the U.S., and really utilizing our first-mover advantage to continue to expand the portfolio. And in our view, this is like the early days of towers for small cells, and we've seen the movie before. It's the margin expansion takes a little bit of time. But as we add assets - as we add tenants to great assets, over time we'd see a tremendous amount of expansion on the returns, and that's what we're focused on doing. We think it's beneficial over the long term to our growth rate. So, we're focused on making sure we build the right assets and then grow the cash flows from there.
Brett Feldman:
Great. And if I sort of combine that with some other statements you may - Ben mentioned that. You do think you're going to get more operating leverage on the DAS next year. You'd also talked about how some of the churn is expected to diminish next year, which presumably would be better for operating leverage in the tower business, and you're buying fiber in the form of Sunesys that you can deploy revenue on top of that as demand materializes. It just seems like as we sort of sanity-check our numbers for 2016, I know you're not going to give us guidance now, that one of the sanity checks would be there should be much better conversion of revenue growth into EBITDA and AFFO as they move out this year. Is that directionally correct?
Jay Brown:
Yeah. I think there's a few things moving on in the numbers, moving around in the numbers. If we talk about services, we're getting some benefit this year from pay-and-walk fees of about $25 million to $30 million that we would not expect to occur again in 2016. So, that will be a little bit of a headwind to us. On the plus side, we've got sustaining capital expenditures coming down, about $20 million next year, from what we have this year. So, there's a bit of a wash there, maybe a little bit of a headwind, $10 million or so of a headwind. I think where I would go to, though, is focus on where we're focused, which is growth and AFFO per share. And our long-term target of 6% to 7% is where we're trying to operate the business to. Love it if it's more, but our view is that that's about where the business is going to perform given at the current level of leasing. In 2015 and 2016 that we've shown in the supplement, the headwinds from churn are more significant than what we would expect over the long-term in the business. So, 2015, if you're looking at that on an apples-to-apples basis, we think we're going to be below the target of 6% to 7% coming off of the base in 2014. Next year, I think we'll probably be inside of that range maybe towards the lower end of it. But inside of that 6% to 7% long-term target. And then we'll do the best we can to do better than that over the course of the year. But once we, at least based on our current view of where churn is and where the various items are moving around, Brett, I think that's the best I can give you until we get to the third quarter to focus on having the business to operate somewhere in the neighborhood of that 6% to 7%. And given the pluses and minuses, at this point, it's probably at the lower end of that 6% to 7%.
Brett Feldman:
Great. Thank you for that color.
Jay Brown:
Yeah.
Operator:
We'll go next to Kevin Smithen at Macquarie.
Kevin Smithen:
I wondered if you could give us a little color on to contracted backlog or bookings in the small cell business, I think you have in the past given us a little color. And I want to see what the change was quarter to quarter and sort of what you're contracted 2016 revenue under backlog would be in that segment.
Benjamin Moreland:
Yeah. Kevin, as you know we're not segment disclosing yet on that, to the extent we ever do. But I'll give you some color. Our bookings, thus far, through midyear are up significantly compared to last year. So, that again, will turn in the revenue in 2016 and 2017. I'm not prepared to quantify that directly for you, but it's up materially from what we saw last year. And against our plan for the year, we're running ahead of where you expect us to be midyear. So, we're very enthusiastic about that. As I mentioned earlier though, a lot of that work is anchor builds. And so, that will come on with a lower margin than you would expect it to be when you lease up to second tenants over time to co-location. So, while it's a material amount of incremental revenue, it gets muted because it's an anchor build on that, and so you're bringing on new operating expenses on this systems as well. So, look, we'll get you more color I think as we look out - as we think about our 6% to 7% target over the longer term which we originally gave you in 2014. As Jay just walked you through, we picked up about a point next year on reduction in churn. If that continues to normalize, we would expect that happen over subsequent years as well. And so, we're going to continue work towards getting that total return out there that's very attractive between the current yield and growth.
Kevin Smithen:
On ExteNet, were you surprised that SBA didn't acquire this asset and doesn't this give you sustainable product suite with advantage with your largest customer or the largest customer horizon on small cells versus your public peers?
Benjamin Moreland:
Well, look, as you can tell, we're very pleased with the business. And I think that the ExteNet transaction is - obviously, it's tremendous for the shareholders that are exiting. And I think it's a validation of the opportunity that we see in the marketplace with Digital Bridge coming in. As I mentioned earlier, it's a big world out there, and there's going to be a number of competitors. But the geography, the opportunities continue to, frankly, amaze us, and we're going about as hard as we can. We've told you that before on the other calls and that remains true today.
Kevin Smithen:
Thanks a lot.
Operator:
We'll take our next question from David Barden of Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
David Barden:
Hey, guys. Thanks. So, maybe just, first, Jay, you know, in the supplements, as you kind of point out, there's a nice uptick in the expectations for the new leasing activity from 5.6% to 6% year-over-year. I imagine a portion of that is related to just stripping out the slower-growing Australia business from the comparisons and then some of it is related to kind of the activity. If you could kind of split that out between the two forces, it would be helpful. And then, I guess, for maybe Ben, just maybe following up on something Ric mentioned earlier. I guess the big conversation now on architecture in towers is always something new, is Cloud-RAN and whether it's wireless of fiber-based backhaul, the idea that we're not going to need as much equipment at the tower from an intelligence standpoint. Could you kind of talk about, A, whether how real it is in terms of what you see happening on the ground in the business. And, B, if it does become real, what does it really mean for your kind of core business view? Thanks.
Jay Brown:
Sure. Dave, on your first question, removing Australia does help the growth rate a little bit, but Australia only represented about 5% of our site rental revenue. So, it would get lost in the rounding trying to back that out and see the benefit of it. The real 40-basis-point move or the vast majority of it is a legitimate increase in the amount of activity that we expect in the calendar year. As I mentioned in my comments, some of that was achieved during the second quarter and flows through the balance of the year. And then some of it is an increased expectation in leasing. That increase in expectation is largely based on what we're seeing on towers. Where we are on small cells doesn't have that meaningful of an impact on that number. So, the vast majority of what you're seeing there in the uptick of 40 basis points on the growth rate is coming from towers.
David Barden:
[Inaudible]
Benjamin Moreland:
And I would just add to that, the 10% gross growth we're quite proud of, obviously, that includes the organic growth of leasing and then the escalators on top of that. So, that 10% number, which is consistent for the balance of the year, is something that we think is highly indicative of a pretty robust market. Dave, to your question about C-RAN, it's very early as we're being told by our customers as we've talked to them about some of these opportunities. But over time, I think the net impact to us as tower owners is that it probably brings some of the smaller sites that have more smaller ground footprint more into play for co-location to the extent they were challenging on a ground footprint, you couldn't add to it because the C-RAN architecture typically locates what we think of as base stations offsite, more like - it frankly looks more like the architecture on a small cell network. It just happens to terminate on a tower. It looks to us like over time we could see less equipment on the ground potentially but not less in the air. I think you're still going to have active remote radio heads and, potentially, more antennas up the tower as more spectrum is utilized in trying to get maximum spectral efficiency out of their installations. So, I think it's a material architectural evolution that will probably happen over the next decade. But from our take today, it looks like it probably has positive effects on ground space and really doesn't affect what's up the tower. And that's my best view as we sit here today.
David Barden:
And, Ben, if I could just follow up. But just in terms of some of the contracts and thinking about kind of bucketing out the revenue contributions. I mean, obviously we're talking something way down the road. But if your average new cell is $2,000 today, and all of a sudden your carrier customers don't need as much ground space, is that a $1,900 contract all of a sudden or is it $2,000 package deal, and you use it how you want to use it.
Benjamin Moreland:
Yeah. I think over time, the pricing in our industry has continued to evolve a little bit. But ultimately, it relates to what's the load on the tower, and potentially the shareable economics of the tower are always in play to the benefit of the carriers. Meaning, we as a company take that lease-up risk as you're certainly aware, and we'll make the tower available to them on a very attractive single-digit yield. That's what happened in all of the large sale leasebacks whether the initial yield was sort of in the 4% to 5% range for most of these transactions, and then we lease it up from there. So my view on that long-term pricing scheme is that no matter how you - what the nomenclature is or how you denominate the pricing, it ultimately is going to go to yield on the asset. And I think we as a company - and I certainly won't speak for my competitors, but we as a company ultimately think about this as a shared model and providing that shareable economic to the carrier customer such that with multiple tenants on a tower, we're going to yield above our cost of capital, above the cost to own and operate that site. And that's going to be the case, no matter how you denominate how we charge for rent. And so, it's not getting any easier to locate towers that is for certain. And so these assets have a very significant franchise value, and I'm very confident that we'll be able to attract the yield that's above our cost of capital for the foreseeable future just as we've done on the legacy Crown sites that are over 15% per tower on a yield basis with three tenants per tower.
David Barden:
Got it. All right. Thanks, guys.
Operator:
We'll go next to Colby Synesael at Cowen & Company.
Colby Synesael:
Great. Two questions if I may. First one, I just want to get some context on guidance. You mentioned, obviously, that you're expecting $25 million to $30 million in [indiscernible] decomissioning. Can you tell us what was previously assumed in your guidance, I'm not sure if that have been previously disclosed. And then, as it relates to 2016, I'm sure you could appreciate that there's - from an investor perspective, a lot of excitement around what we could see in 2016 in terms of demand relative to 2015, particularly from AT&T and Sprint. I was wondering if you could talk about what you're actually seeing from those two providers as we stand here today in terms of some of the activity and what that might mean for 2016. Thanks.
Jay Brown:
Sure. On the first question, Colby, originally, we had expected paying [indiscernible] fees to be about $20 million in the calendar year. So, we've increased the expectation by about $7.5 million. The vast majority of that we got in the second quarter. So, there's a little bit left in the balance of the year but I think we - most of it is - we booked at this point.
Benjamin Moreland:
On the 2016 outlook, Colby, I'd sort of reiterate something Jay said earlier but I think it's good for all of us on this call to be reminded. You know, if we saw a 20% or 25% step in the market next year, and that's a big if, not suggesting that's there, but I think that directionally a question, that's $25 million of run rate exit the year or $12.5 million with the midyear convention that go into the numbers. So, that's something just under 1% change in AFFO per share growth rate. So, I think it's important that we work hard for every percent around here. And so, if it's 6% to 7%, that's been off our long-term forecast for you. If the market were up 20% to 25% in a year, into the second year, you'd see something just over a 1% increase above plan in AFFO. At the same time, that really demonstrates the resiliency of the model, which is kind of the comments we're making about the dividend yield as we sort of concluded my remarks. I mean, you'd be hard-pressed to find a business that frankly has less volatility with more utility for these assets, your need for these assets over time, and you've got the dividend yield which is obviously made up of contracted revenue. You've got escalators that result in about half of the growth that we're forecasting. And then we work hard every day on that additional 200, 300, 400 basis points of growth above that escalator. And it's frankly one of the great attributes about this business model, is how insensitive it is to changes in this market.
Colby Synesael:
And no specific color I guess on increased activity potentially from either AT&T or Sprint at this point?
Jay Brown:
I'm not going to let you talk us up here in June or July, whatever it is.
Colby Synesael:
Right. Fair enough. Thank you.
Jay Brown:
All right. Good luck.
Operator:
We'll move next to Jonathan Schildkraut at Evercore ISI.
Jonathan Schildkraut:
Good morning. Thanks for taking the questions. Two if I may. First, I noticed that the payout as a percent of AFFO stepped up a little bit in the quarter. And even as I look at, say, the first half of the year, free cash flow relative to dividends, it looks like dividend payments were a little higher than free cash flow. So, I guess the question here is, is the step-up in AFFO payout sort of in the free cash flow relative to dividend somewhat misleading due to timing but also the fact that you're putting out capital and then getting reimbursed from the carriers? And then I like to follow up with a second question, please.
Jay Brown:
Yeah. On the first question, Jonathan, I think it's just the - honestly, the timing and the discontinued ops treatment between the sale of Australia and the purchase of Sunesys. So, at this point, all of our historical results, we'd removed Australia from adjusted EBITDA and AFFO as you're pointing out the payout ratio. As we noted in our remark, Sunesys is the complete push to Australia on an AFFO per share contribution. So, if you were to just factor in Sunesys and the way you - I think you were articulating doing the math. I think if you pro forma Sunesys as though we owned it for all of 2015, then our payout ratio would look the same as it did previously. I think in and around that payout ratio, it's probably where we're going to manage the business. The way we've articulated that most often to people when asked about our dividend policy, it's to indicate that we would expect to match the growth in AFFO per share with growth in dividend per share. So, in our long-term target of trying to grow AFFO per share of 6% to 7% annually, we would target growing the dividend at 6% to 7% organically over the longer term. So, I think that's the short answer to it. You'll see that payout ratio would be back in line once we close Sunesys would be our expectation.
Jonathan Schildkraut:
Great. And then I found it really helpful that you guys provided 14 numbers stripping out CCAL. We can sort of see what the growth rate of the remaining business is. As we come back and we layer in Sunesys whenever that closes and you give us a little bit more detail, I'm just trying to understand if we're going to have a real sense as to what happened from the business from 2015 to 2016 if Sunesys gets rolled in given that you've stripped out sort of the CCAL from 2015 now. It's an asset reallocation, and so understanding what you've done with sort of the capital you've been allocated as we move into 2016 and beyond. It might be helpful to have a sense as to the contribution of the business, at least in terms of what you owned it in the second quarter was from CCAL, any thoughts?
Jay Brown:
Yeah. Jonathan, I appreciate the feedback. Obviously, it's a great story on small cells, and if we close that acquisition, we'll be able to help folks understand our numbers and our guidance for the full-year and what we expect the contribution is from the asset once we close and the impact to guidance and try to do it in a similar vein as we try to do our overall disclosure of helping folks understand the business. And one of the reasons why we talked about a longer-term target of AFFO per share growth rate is our aim is for those who are invested in our company to have the same view of growth and the future prospects of the business that we as a management team do. So, our aim in all those disclosure matters is to try to help make the business as clear as we possibly can. We're always open to feedback on that. So, we'll take that away. I appreciate the thoughts on it.
Jonathan Schildkraut:
All right. Thanks so much for taking the questions.
Jay Brown:
Thanks, Jon.
Operator:
We'll go next to Amir Rozwadowski of Barclays.
Amir Rozwadowski:
Thank you very much. I wanted to follow up on one of the prior questions about carrier strategies around small cells. And it does seem as though there's a lot of interest and activity around sort of the co-location opportunities that you folks are putting forward. But also, are there other initiatives in place in which the carriers are going to wholly own their own small cell deployments and architectures whereby they may not completely embrace the co-location based business model? And then I've got a follow-up from that side.
Benjamin Moreland:
Absolutely. You know, it's just like with the tower side. It was only this year that Verizon decided to sell their towers the second time. So, I think it's because of the need for capacity in these markets you're going to see carriers work on self-performing to a degree just like they've done on the tower side where, in various markets, they may be able to access vendor relationships or their own capability to supplement what we as an industry will bring to them. So, I think it's both, Amir. I don't think it's going to be wholly third-party infrastructure-led. And I think that's fine. I mean, again, it's a big world out there. And it makes sense in terms of speed to market where you've already got fiber to work on that. And that was sort of the nature of our Sunesys interest and NextG three years ago, was when you have fiber in a market that's been purpose-built for small cell deployments, you can get on the air quicker. And that's a key determinant on whether you get the business or not. And somebody that has to start from scratch doesn't really have a competitive advantage. And that brings in the potential for the carrier to work on it themselves. So, I think it's going to be both.
Amir Rozwadowski:
That's very helpful, Ben. And then in talking about sort of the current demand environment, you had mentioned that the leasing activity that you had seen has been fairly healthy out of Verizon and T-Mobile. If we start to think about sort of the opportunity set over the next 12 to 24 months, I mean, is there a potential that they are satiated with their current build requirements and sort of tempered back, or do you see the introduction of new spectrum AWS-3 or anything along those lines as continuing to support the healthy demand environment that you've seen out of those carriers?
Benjamin Moreland:
We have a very strong view that we're going to continue to see a healthy demand of that environment based upon the different products and services that we, as consumers, are going to be utilizing going forward. And I think the biggest driver of that, as I mentioned in my remarks, is around video and ultimately, live television content. I think that's a huge driver for our business going forward that we just, frankly today, can't really begin to quantify for you. Just sitting here 10 years ago, we wouldn't have been able to quantify sort of the broadband Internet adoption that we're now seeing. So, I think it's a long runway of growth. Again, in our business, we don't so much look for inflection points as we look for extended runways. And I have a very strong view about an extended runway which is how we got comfortable with sort of giving you a five-year outlook at 6% to 7%, which I would mention, remember 2015, with the headwind of churn being the highest of all the years, is going to be a lot more like 5%. So, in order to say 6% to 7% over five years, obviously, it has to step at some point. And we've given you a little bit of that view towards 2016, and we'll probably leave it at that.
Amir Rozwadowski:
Thank you very much for the incremental color.
Operator:
We'll go next to Michael Bowen of Pacific Crest.
Michael Bowen:
Okay. Thank you very much. A couple of things here. With regard to the organic growth, I think you've said last quarter that 50% was from the existing book of business. I want to find out if that was still the same. And then secondly, with regard to the small cell business, how do you think about that in relation to the AFFO per share organic growth that you talked about of 6% to 7%? In other words, as you layer that in, what should we think about as far as incremental organic growth from that business? Thanks.
Benjamin Moreland:
I think on your first question, the vast majority of the revenue growth that we're seeing in the business is being driven by brand-new leases on existing towers, as well as the small cell revenue. We're seeing a minimal benefit from amendment to existing site. So, currently, most of it is being driven by new leases, and that's driving the organic growth that the revenue line and then obviously flowing down to the AFFO line. In the second part of the question, I think the way I broadly answer the question is as we make investments in the case of the Sunesys acquisition of about $1 billion, that acquisition, we think, has lots of opportunities for growth to the long-term which we've articulated on this call. When you get down to that as the contribution to the growth on that 6% to 7%, it represents a relatively small percentage of the overall enterprise value. So, we think it's additive. But it's additive in terms of basis points and not multi-percentage points to that 6% to 7%. So, one of the ways that we've thought about is it probably gives us a greater confidence that we have the opportunities to achieve the higher end of our target of 6% to 7%, but didn't necessarily cause us to reevaluate our 6% to 7% target. And, frankly, as we look at the opportunities that we have in front of us, I'm not sure that there are lot of things that we would say from an investment standpoint would be of a size that would cause us to reconsider that overall target. Most of what we're working on is investing the excess cash flow that we have and opportunities that we see in front of us that makes sense. And we think continue to increase dividends over time. And then lease up the assets that we already own whether that's towers or small cells
Michael Bowen:
Okay. That's helpful. And then, I guess, lastly, with regard to that AFFO per share organic long-term target, should we assume that that's with the - relatively static share account or have you made any assumptions that are maybe in the - under the covers there. Thanks.
Jay Brown:
Well, I think the way I would answer that question is, obviously, anytime we look at the opportunity to invest in something, it may require that we utilize some amount of equity in order to accomplish that. But to the extent that we were to utilize equity or even debt or cash flow it's only because we think the investment warrants it. It has to increase our overall growth rate and it has to be additive to our ability to pay dividends over the long term as measured by what's the growth in AFFO per share. So, I'm not going to presume today that we either need or don't need to utilize equity or debt to make growth opportunities. We'll have to look at them as they come and evaluate what we think the growth prospects of those individual transactions are against the cost of the capital. I would also point out over a long period of time, we've been very diligent about reducing share count. And so, I certainly would not presume today that the opportunity over the next decade may - would not be our opportunity to reduce shares, not just to issue shares. So, we may enter an environment where the best opportunity and the best investment of capital for us, both using cash flow and potentially debt might be reducing our share count. And I certainly wouldn't close off that opportunity. We're trying to focus on maximizing AFFO per share and maximizing dividends per share over the long term or whether that results in asset acquisitions or the reduction of shares to share purchases, I think we'll try to be smart about what that is and maximize the long-term returns for shareholders.
Michael Bowen:
Okay.
Benjamin Moreland:
Now I would just point out that as you get to that 5 times target and if we're successful in attracting the rating that we hope on the investment grade side, just to add to the Fitch Rating this quarter, at that point, then your ability to then re-lever EBITDA resumes like we've had for years, that happens to be a 5 multiple, as Jay outlined in his remarks, well, then you're able to reliever EBITDA at 5 times every year, which adds significant capacity once you achieve that level.
Michael Bowen:
All right. Very helpful. Thanks for taking the questions.
Operator:
We'll go next to Batya Levi at UBS.
Batya Levi:
Thanks. Couple of follow-ups. First, on - as AT&T and Verizon, especially Verizon, begin to reform some of its 850 spectrum for LTE build-outs in early 2016, do you think that kind of activity provides upside to the current trend, or will it be enough to just sustain the level? And another question on the small cells, I think you've mentioned 2,300 nodes on the pipeline. How quickly that they will be generating revenues? Thank you.
Benjamin Moreland:
Yeah. Sure. The AT&T - I mean, sorry, the Verizon amendment activity, as you suggested, I would say that's broadly sort of baked in our view. They're a very, very steady and consistent disciplined investor in their network. And as they've talked about on their call, the reforming of the spectrum is sort of an ongoing way to maximize the efficiency of their investment in spectrum, and that's sort of implicit in our views without being - I'm not sure we're ever 100% accurate - I'm certain we're not - on exactly, by carrier, the nature of the revenue growth we get every year. We do our best to target it in the fall of the prior year. And then we do our best to see how well we predict that outcome. But it's implicit. I wouldn't say that it's additive.
Jay Brown:
On your second question, typically, small cell deployments are taking us about 18 months roughly from the time we're awarded to building them, 18 to 24 months. Some portion of that pipeline would represent co-locations on existing systems, and that timeline would be much lower than the 18 to 24 months to build it out. And then the other thing I would point out to you, as we've mentioned in prior quarters, that pipeline is not a static number. So, we're constantly pursuing other opportunities given the returns that we're seeing in that business. And so, as much as we're completing projects that have been in the pipeline for 18 to 24 months, we're filling back up the pipeline with new opportunities that will be building over the next couple of years.
Batya Levi:
Okay. Thank you.
Operator:
We'll go next to Spencer Kurn at New Street Research.
Spencer Kurn:
Hey. Thanks for taking my question. Just to follow up on Sunesys, you've identified 3,500 opportunities for small cells on the asset. Can you just provide a bit of context around what that means for the overall lease-up potential you see there, and also how much revenue can you drive off of those opportunities? Thanks.
Jay Brown:
Yeah. Those are opportunities that we've identified in our pipeline as opportunities to add nodes to their existing network fiber. The timeline for that, again, I would go back to my prior comment around 18 to 24 months to bring those online once we start working on them. The revenue contribution that we see from nodes is about a third of what we would typically see from a tower tenant. So, if you thought about the 3,300 nodes, those would look like in the neighborhood of about 1,000 new tenants on towers. And each tenant on a tower is in the neighborhood of about $24,000 to $30,000 on an annual basis in terms of rent. So, the contribution there, probably in the neighborhood - somewhere in the neighborhood of $24 million to $30 million on the revenue line as we build up those nodes. We obviously expect that pipeline to build as we integrate the asset and create more opportunity, but it was obviously helpful as we thought about going into the acquisition on a yield of about 6% roughly day one and then having visibility to what equates to another couple 100 percentage points of yield - basis points of yield as we thought about the asset being able to specifically identify nodes that we thought we're going to end up on that fiber.
Spencer Kurn:
Great. Thank you.
Operator:
And we'll go next to Jonathan Atkin at RBC Capital Markets.
Jay Brown:
Welcome back, Jonathan.
Jonathan Atkin:
So, AWS-3, I just wondered what your - what's the plausible outcome in terms of when that might start to drive some amended revenues? And in your case, you've got some MOAs and it looked like some of your sale leaseback deals, and I wondered whether that perhaps a new tier growth opportunity from AWS-3 but in terms of physical deployment at the site, are there going to be RRUs and is that going to happen second half of next year or first half of next year? What's your sense of that?
Benjamin Moreland:
Jon, my sense is you're going to start seeing it second half of next broadly, and it will depend on the portfolio and the configuration whether it was a legacy Crown Tower or whether it was newly acquired. And then at the individual site level, what the capacity - what's currently on the side against the reserve capacity. So, it's very hard to give you an exact number, but I would tell you that across even the AT&T portfolio, we're already seeing additional revenue as we highlighted on this call before. We're already seeing additional revenue on many of those installations as they upgrade through the reserve capacity. So, again, long-term implicit in our view on growth over time, but I can't really be a lot more specific than that.
Jonathan Atkin:
Thank you.
Benjamin Moreland:
You bet.
Son Nguyen:
And with that, I appreciate it and recycling Jon Atkins's background to the beginning, I think we've covered all the bases, covered the waterfront this morning with an 1 hour and 15 minutes. I appreciate everyone's attention. We are going to work hard on delivering the second half of the year like we have the first half. Excited to welcome our Sunesys friends onboard here shortly, and I will talk to you on the next quarter call. Thank you.
Operator:
And that does conclude today's conference. Again, thank you for your participation.
Executives:
Son Nguyen - VP, Corporate Finance Ben Moreland - CEO Jay Brown - CFO
Analysts:
Simon Flannery - Morgan Stanley David Barden - Bank of America Phil Cusick - JPMorgan Brett Feldman - Goldman Sachs Justin Ages - Evercore ISI Rick Prentiss - Raymond James Kevin Smithen - Macquarie Amir Rozwadowski - Barclays Colby Synesael - Cowen and Company Batya Levi - UBS Michael Bowen - Pacific Crest Spencer Kurn - New Street Research Ana Goshko - Bank of America
Operator:
Good day and welcome to the Crown Castle International Q1 2015 Earnings Conference Call. Today's conference is being recorded. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Son Nguyen. Please go ahead, sir.
Son Nguyen:
Great. Thank you, Hannah, and good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us today as we review our first quarter 2015 results. With me on the call this morning are Ben Moreland, Crown Castle's Chief Executive Officer, and Jay Brown, Crown Castle's Chief Financial Officer. To aid the discussion, we have posted supplemental materials in the Investors section of our website at crowncastle.com, which we will refer to throughout the call this morning. This conference call will contain forward-looking statements which are subject to certain risks, uncertainties and assumptions, and actual results may vary materially from those expected. Information about potential factors which could affect our results is available in the press release and Risk Factors section of the company's SEC filings. Our statements are made as of today, April 23, 2015, and we assume no obligations to update any forward-looking statements. In addition, today's call includes discussions of certain non-GAAP financial measures. Tables reconciling these non-GAAP financial measures are available in the supplemental information package in the Investors section of the company's website at crowncastle.com. With that, I'll turn the call over to Jay.
Jay Brown:
Thanks, Son and good morning, everyone. We started 2015 with a great first quarter. The US wireless carriers continue to make investments to upgrade their networks to keep pace with increasing consumer wireless demand. And we expect to see strong leasing activity throughout 2015. Turning to the first-quarter results, on slide three, site rental revenue grew 3% year-over-year from $747 million to $768 million. Organic site rental revenue grew 5% year-over-year, comprised of approximately 3% growth from cash escalations in our tenant lease contracts and approximately 6% growth from new leasing activity, net of approximately 4% from non-renewals. Moving to slide four, adjusted EBITDA and AFFO exceeded the high-end of our previously provided first quarter 2015 outlook. As mentioned in our earnings release yesterday, the outperformance during the quarter includes the timing of two items that impact first quarter 2015 results as well as our second quarter 2015 outlook. First, network services gross margin contribution was higher than our expectations for the quarter by approximately $9 million due to network services activity that was previously expected to occur during the second quarter taking place during the first quarter. Second, sustaining capital expenditures during the first quarter was lower than expected by approximately $6 million. This expected $6 million in sustaining capital expenditure is expected to be invested during the remainder of 2015. Ignoring the benefit from the timing of these two items, adjusted EBITDA and AFFO for the first quarter would be at or higher than the midpoint of our previously provided outlook for the first quarter. Turning to investment activities, as shown on slide five, during the first quarter, we invested $205 million in capital expenditures. These capital expenditures included $17 million in sustaining capital expenditures and $24 million in land purchases. During the first quarter, we completed over 500 land transactions, of which 20% were purchases with the remainder being lease extensions. For the full year 2015, we are targeting completing over 2000 land transactions. Our proactive approach to achieving long-term control of the ground beneath our sites is core to our business and as we look to control our largest operating expense and produce stable and growing cash flow over time. Today, approximately one-third of our site rental gross margin is generated from towers on land we own and approximately 70% on land we own or lease for more than 20 years. This number increases to 90% when we include ground leaser of 10 years or more. Where we have ground leases, the average term remaining on our ground leases is approximately 30 years. More detailed information regarding the ground interest beneath our towers is available in our supplemental information package on our website. Of the remaining capital expenditures, we invested $164 million in revenue generating capital expenditures, consisting of $96 million on existing sites and $68 million on the construction of new sites, primarily small cell construction activity. We continue to see significant growth in site rental revenues from small cells, which grew in excess of 35% year-over-year. Today, small cells represent 7% of our site rental revenue and site rental gross margin. Small cells offer a shareable model, similar to towers that provides wireless carriers with a solution to address network capacity constraints where a macro tower site is not available or is insufficient. Our investment in small cell anchored builds typically generates 6% to 8% initial yield and gross margins of 60 to 70%. With the colocation of the second tenant on the initial fibre investment, we typically see incremental margins of 80% to 90%, bringing IRRs above the 20% level. We believe investing in small cell builds on our core confidence -- builds on our core competency as the leading provider of US wireless infrastructure, leveraging our existing relationships with the wireless carriers. Like towers, tenant leases on small cells are typically long-term with 10 to 15 year committed term with annual escalators. Given what we are seeing from the wireless carriers and their public commentary, we believe we are in the very early stages of small cell adoption and deployment. Similar to towers built in the late 1990s and early 2000s, we are focused on building small cell networks in the most attractive locations in the US, in places like Manhattan, Washington DC, Southern California and Chicago. As mobile data demand grows, the necessity of small cells increase as evidenced by our growing pipeline of over 2500 anchor builds and colocations on existing systems, which have been awarded to us, but are not yet in construction. Today, inclusive of our acquisition of NextG in 2012, we have invested approximately $1.7 billion in small cells. Our current yield on investment is 7%, inclusive of our $1 billion investment in NextG at an initial yield of approximately 4%. With our leadership position of over 14,000 nodes on air or under construction, and 7000 miles of fibre, we are winning new opportunities and driving yields up on our existing investments in small cell networks. Shifting to financing activities, during the quarter, we paid a quarterly common stock dividend of $0.82 per share or $274 million in aggregate. As of March 31, our total net debt to last quarter annualized adjusted EBITDA is 5.3 times. We continue to maintain a target leverage ratio of five times as we remain focused on achieving an investment-grade credit rating. Our weighted average cost of debt stands at 4.1% with a weighted average maturity of six years. We believe overtime, our disciplined approach to leverage and capital allocation, including our dividend policy will lower our cost of capital. A core strategy of the company is to reduce our cost of capital and thereby increase the value to shareholders of our large and growing annuity like business. Turning to the second quarter outlook on slide six, on a sequential basis, the second-quarter 2015 outlook for site rental gross margin, adjusted EBITDA and AFFO are expected to be impacted by certain seasonal or timing items. Repair and maintenance during the second quarter of 2015 is expected to be higher by approximately $4 million as compared to the first quarter, reflecting the seasonal nature of certain activities consistent with prior years as the weather warms. As mentioned in the press release, the expected sequential movements in our outlook for network services gross margin and sustaining capital expenditures are attributable to timing as expectations for network services gross margin as well as sustaining capital expenditures remain substantially unchanged from the previously provided full year 2015 outlook. Moving on to the full-year 2015 outlook on slide seven, we have increased the midpoint for our full-year 2015 outlook for site rental revenue by $7 million and AFFO by $3 million. The increased outlook reflects the strong results from the first quarter and includes the negative impact from a decrease in foreign exchange rate assumptions related to our Australia business, which is expected to impact site rental revenues and AFFO by approximately $8 million and $6 million respectively. Given the underlying favourable fundamentals which Ben will speak to in a moment, we remain confident in our ability to generate annual AFFO growth of 6% to 7% organically over the next five years, with cash escalations on our tenant leases contributing to half of the expected growth. We believe this growth combined with returning significant capital to shareholders through dividends provide shareholders with compelling long-term total returns. And with that, I'll turn the call over to Ben.
Ben Moreland:
Thanks, Jay and thanks to all of you for joining us today on the call. As Jay mentioned in his remarks, we are focused on providing shareholders with an attractive total long-term return proposition. We measure long-term total returns as dividend yield plus growth in AFFO per share. I'd like to take a moment to explain the composition of the total return profile we offer to shareholders. Turning to slide eight, based on yesterday's closing stock price, we expect to deliver on average long-term total returns of approximately 10% to 11% per year. This 10% to 11% total returns is comprised of approximately 4% from our current dividend yield plus 6% to 7% from our expectation of growing AFFO per share organically. While the dividend yield ultimately will be determined by the market, we believe our business model given its growth and quality compares very favourably to some of the best in class REITs who have dividend yields of approximately 3%. Turning to our expected growth, of the 6% to 7% annual growth in AFFO organically, about half of this growth comes from our existing book of business via the cash escalations and our tenant lease contracts. For some context, we currently have approximately $22 billion of high-quality future revenues under long-term contract, primarily with the four largest US wireless carriers. The remaining 50% of expected AFFO growth comes from new leasing activity. This activity is driven by carrier network investments as the carriers deploy more equipment to add capacity and coverage either in the form of new tenant colocation on our sites or amendments to existing locations. As has been true since the early days of the wireless industry, network quality continues to be the market differentiator for carrier success. Today, the industry is seeing unprecedented data growth on new LTE networks supported by more robust devices and applications. As a result, growing consumer demand and usage is leading to an inevitable need for carrier network investments. As can be seen on slides nine and 10, there is a strong relationship between consumer usage, unit economics and carrier capital investments. With strong unit economics of approximately $50 per subscriber per month or $600 annually, US carriers are able to generate positive incremental returns on their incremental capital investment. The relatively high ARPU is supported by the staggering amount of mobile data consumption by US subscribers. As we look to the future, demand for mobile data is seemingly limitless. Cisco's latest report confirms this view, projecting that US mobile data traffic will increase seven-fold between 2014 and 2019 after accounting for Wi-Fi offloading. There are many factors contributing to this insatiable demand for mobile data. However, a couple of things jump out to me including innovation around devices and applications and user demographics. First, there is an immense amount of innovation taking place around mobile devices and applications. Businesses and consumers are reinventing the way we live and do business, taking advantage of the convenience and accessibility that mobile data provides. For example, there is increasing adoption of Internet TV or over-the-top content offerings. Today, we can stream video on demand on a safer network with applications such as YouTube, Netflix and Hulu just to name a few. Applications such as these drove mobile video data growth of 60% in 2014. And by 2019, mobile data traffic from video is expected to be nine times higher than current levels. Video enriched content represents an exciting revenue opportunity for wireless carriers and promises to propel the next wave of network investment. Machine to machine, or M2M connections, including wearable devices is another example of an area of innovation that is expected to drive significant growth in data usage. Today, there is, on average, 1.2 connected devices per US wireless consumer. Amazingly by 2019, that's estimated to be up to 3.2 connected devices for US wireless consumers. Examples of M2M connections include home security and automation, smart metering and utilities and connecting cars. Mobile data traffic generated from M2M connections is expected to double each year between now and 2019. Turning to demographics, consumer profiles play a significant part in mobile data usage. Applications such as text and email are widely embraced equally across all age groups. However, social networking, video viewing and music streaming are skewed towards younger subscribers, which over time will become a larger percentage of the overall subscriber base. Subscribers in the age range of 18 to 29 stream video and music at 2 to 3 times the rate of subscribers 30 years old and above. The upcoming change in demographics alone will likely lead to significant increased mobile data demand. Based on the expected growth in US data growth, we have intentionally been expanding our portfolio of wireless infrastructure in the US by investing in the AT&T mobile tower transactions adding over 17,000 towers and making significant investments in small cell networks over the past few years. As nearly three quarters of our sites are located in the top 100 markets, we have a tremendous opportunity to capture incremental leasing from increasing cell site density necessary to keep up with demand. Further, we have ample capacity and opportunity to accommodate additional carriers on these sites. Towers continue to be the most efficient and cost-effective way for carriers to add network capacity and coverage and support our bullish long-term view on site leasing. As Jay has already mentioned, we are also very excited by the small cell opportunity. It's an opportunity for us to extend our leadership position in shared wireless infrastructure. With initial yields of 6% to 8%, which is higher than a typical tower acquisition yield, and the same underlying shareable model, that leads to IRRs above 20% with the second tenant added, it clearly meets our return thresholds. We believe small cells is a great investment and we are at the very early stages of this opportunity. Three years ago when we acquired NextG Networks, the then leader in the field of small cells or distributed antenna system deployment, we had a thesis that this architecture of fibre-fed deployment will play an important role in adding capacity to networks of the future as carriers seek to monetize the data opportunity. Today, our investment thesis has been validated beyond our expectations as we examine the large and growing pipeline of system developments or deployments upon which we are engaged, it’s apparent this is not a niche technology. Rather, it promises to be the solution to add capacity in virtually every urban and suburban geography in the US. Just like towers, some of the best assets will be those that were secured early, where co-location, upgrades and expansion is virtually assured. So in summary, we are pleased with the start of the year and very excited about the long-term trends that promise to bring more opportunity for Crown Castle to assist our customers in realizing their objectives. In so doing, we believe our capabilities and portfolio of assets will continue to provide an attractive investment for shareholders and a great place to work for employees. And with that operator, I’d be pleased to turn the call over for questions.
Operator:
Thank you. [Operator Instructions] And we’ll go ahead and take our first question from Simon Flannery with Morgan Stanley.
Simon Flannery:
Great. Thanks very much. Good morning. Ben, can you just talk a little bit about carrier activity through the year. We saw some very low CapEx from AT&T and Verizon this first quarter. Were you seeing any impact from people waiting to see what they ended up within the AWS auctions and is there a sort of a sense that activities picking up through the year and then for Jay, you mentioned your investment grade target, you're getting pretty close now to that five times, what do you think the path and the timing is here to actually close the deal on that? Thanks.
Ben Moreland:
Sure, Simon. Thanks for the question. As we look at carrier activity, it's shaping up pretty much like we thought for the year. I think on the Verizon call, they intimated a little bit back-end loaded on CapEx spending, reconfirming their guidance for the whole year. That's probably what we are seeing, little back-end loaded, but that's consistent with how we originally forecasted guidance and to just sort of think about how various carriers ebb and flow with their network enhancements and their capital spending, we've gotten to the point where we don't get really that worked up about individual carriers and individual quarters of how it shapes up. It's gotten fairly consistent across the years and sort of the inevitability of the need for cell site density and more upgrades on existing sites. We are seeing each of the carriers work on increasing network quality in their own way and they talk about it publicly and obviously with us and that's what we work on every day. So I'd say it's shaping up about like we thought and perhaps a little bit back-end loaded.
Jay Brown:
On your second questions, I'm not really able to provide you with a path or a timing necessarily on when we will get there, but what I can tell you is we've had a number of conversations with each of the rating agencies and have been engaged in an ongoing dialog on the subject for the last -- over a year around achieving the investment grade credit rating. And as you point out, rightly point out, as we are nearing the leverage target, the vast majority of our credit metrics are, if not, within very close to meeting their published criteria for achieving an investment-grade credit rating. So we’re optimistic and pleased with where we've gotten to in the approach that the agencies have taken towards upgrading the credit over the last 18 months to two years and we think we’re on the right path, just don't know the exact timing of that.
Simon Flannery:
Great. Thank you.
Ben Moreland:
Sure.
Operator:
And we will take our next question from David Barden with Bank of America.
David Barden:
Hey, guys. Thanks. Thanks for the details on the small cell business, 7% of revenue, I think this is the first time that you may have shared it. It’s also 7% of the site rental margin as well, which suggests that even at this stage of development, the small-cell business is generating margins that are equivalent with the totality of the business, and I guess that’s a little surprising given that these are mostly presumably one tenant businesses thus far and they could advance from here, could you kind of elaborate a little bit on the kind of cost structure and margin opportunity that's developing in the small-cell business? Thanks.
Ben Moreland:
Sure, David. That speaks to the initial yield differential between a typical tower you would acquire or a small cell system you might build. As we mentioned, across our entire cumulative investment, we're at 7% today, which is pretty staggering, given that 1 billion of that came at 4%, three years ago, as we remember with NextG. So obviously that incremental 700 million had to do pretty well. And obviously we’ve grown NextG appropriately as we would have forecasted. So it reflects that initial higher yield on invested capital and then the very high incremental margins from colocation and we are staying colocation and on a significant number of the original NextG systems, where we are adding to that existing plant as well as additional laterals off of it. So from a financial perspective, we are extremely comfortable with what we see going forward. I guess maybe to broaden your question a little bit, the challenges are around deployment. We are extremely busy, as Jay mentioned, about our backlog, we've got a lot going on, we've added a lot of people to that business, it's not all capitalized, so we've got overhead dragging that business a little bit, but we’re thrilled with what we see in terms of the opportunity and more and more, as we really dig into the engagements that we’re getting and you look at the geographies. You come to the conclusion as I mentioned in my notes, it's not a niche product, it's not and it's somewhat random actually, you're saying capacity needs in so many urban and suburban areas that you can quickly start to figure out that we're talking about a universe here, I think of hundreds of thousands of nodes over time. Obviously, we will never be able to accomplish all of that ourselves, there will be many other people in this market, but the size of the opportunity honestly reminds us a little bit of, that’s where the the early days of towers and we are going about as fast as we possibly can.
David Barden:
Thanks, Ben. And Jay, if I could follow up with one question just on the churn side, it looks like you trimmed a little bit the expectation for non-renewals in this year, is that on the Sprint-Nextel side or is that on the other kind of acquired carrier side and how do you kind of see the moving parts now moving for the rest of the year? Thanks.
Jay Brown:
Yeah, Dave. We really don't see much of a change from our previous expectations around churn, so for the full year, we basically expect to see about the same amount of churn as we did previously, maybe a little bit of it has been pushed out further in the year. So on a percentage basis, it’s moved a little bit, but there is nothing underlying that tenth of a basis point there that we saw moving the numbers, no real change in our expectation or actual activity to any meaningful amount.
David Barden:
Okay, great. Thanks, guys.
Operator:
And we will go to our next question with Phil Cusick with JPMorgan.
Phil Cusick:
Hey, guys, thanks. Talking about the services side, it seems like the services slowdown pretty highly correlates to the T, Verizon, probably Sprint lower CapEx. Would you anticipate a pretty quick rebound here as carriers ramp CapEx in the second half?
Jay Brown:
Yeah, Phil, we made the comments around the timing from first quarter to second quarter and it is obviously challenging for us in the business to necessarily know exactly how things are going to fall out in the year. The services business, because all of the work that we're doing is related to work that’s done on our sites, we have pretty good visibility to the balance of the year around leasing activity. And so as we went into the year and as evidenced by the fact that we increased the outlook about $15 million on an FX neutral basis for site rental revenue, from a leasing standpoint, the year is shaping up to be maybe slightly better than what we had originally expected. And so our services assumption follows that, that services for the full year are about what we had previously expected. So I wouldn't get too tied up in sequential quarter to quarter move. It has to do with how the carriers allocate their capital and when they spend it. But for the full year activity looks like it's going to be about the same as what it was in 2014, and so our services business is basically not just that.
Phil Cusick:
Okay. And then as I think about, Simon mentioned the leverage getting down toward five times, with the stock trading where it is, why not be looking into to buy some of that back? Are you working on trying to get the rating agencies through before you look at that or should we look at that as being a more near-term possibility?
Ben Moreland:
Well, it's always a possibility and you know we are not shy about buying stock, but as you can tell from our results, we're spending pretty much all our free cash flow and a little bit more on what we think are incredibly attractive investment opportunities as we’ve outlined on this call, it’s small cells primarily. And so I look for that to continue, I don't see a huge amount of free cash flow availability to buy stock for the near-term. And I do think that certainly as we’ve outlined, one of our core strategic objectives is to secure the investment-grade rating, which I think completely sort of maximizes the monetization of the dividend power of this business and then insulates the balance sheet going forward to a decree on just the overall cost to debt long-term. So it's something we are going to focus pretty carefully on. And I think we are on the path to that, hopefully sooner than later.
Jay Brown:
I think over the longer term, as you have seen us do for a long period of time, once we get to the targeted level of leverage, so about five times, once we're down there at that level, that will produce borrowing capacity if we're growing EBITDA in and around just for instance $100 million a year, that's creating about $500 million of investment capacity once we get down to that target level of leverage. So on the short-term I think you're going to see us focus, as Ben mentioned, on getting down to the five times level. And then once we are down there, then we create additional capacity for investment and absolutely stock purchases that are the benchmark against which we compare all the investments that we make in the business.
Phil Cusick:
Okay. Thanks, Jay.
Operator:
And we will go to our next question with Brett Feldman with Goldman Sachs.
Brett Feldman:
Thanks for taking the question. I was hoping you can maybe give us an update on the process involving the Australian segment, and then if you do determine to close the transaction, how do you think about prioritizing the cash. And could you just remind us how you may be able to utilize the NOLs?
Ben Moreland:
Sure, Brett. As we've mentioned before, and put out a press release, we are engaged in a process to evaluate the sale of our Australian business. I don't have anything to announce this morning other than to say that that is ongoing and we have a number of very highly qualified folks that we are speaking with about that. And so I don't want to predict the outcome there for you, because it's certainly not complete. If we were to elect and pursue a transaction there and complete a sale, I think we would first approach it from a leverage neutral proposition as we talked about just a moment ago on Phil’s question. So in and around $500 million of proportional debt reduction is sort of required for that. But that would still leave a significant amount of proceeds available that then we would have for investment opportunity. And just like with any proceeds or capacity we have, we would look to do what maximizes sort of long-term AFFO per share that could include buying stock, it could include buying other assets, continuing to invest around the core business. So all of that is on the table and we will seek to maximize the outcome of those proceeds. And finally to your last point, Brett, on the tax position, we have the benefit of the NOLs, so there won't be any taxes paid at the corporate level. We also believe that as a REIT, we will generate a significant capital gain inside the REIT, that will then get passed out to shareholders in the form of the next amount of dividend that we pay will be in fact capital gain treatment. So to the extent we were paying in and around $1.1 billion of dividends on an annual basis, that capital gain would go out at a lower tax rate than the ordinary income tax rate that the normal quarterly dividend receives. Then to the extent the reminder doesn’t in fact cover all the income within the REIT, that's where we could actually use the NOL to make up that gap. So the shorter answer is there is no tax paid at the corporate level and at the shareholder level, to the extent of the gain, it would be a capital-gains treatment is our best estimate today versus ordinary income. So we think that's extremely favorable.
Brett Feldman:
Great, thanks for that color.
Operator:
And we will go to our next question with Jonathan Schildkraut with Evercore ISI.
Justin Ages:
Hi, this is Justin in for Jonathan. Thanks for taking the question. If I could just ask further on the investment grade, and I know you said getting down to around 4.1 as your cost of debt, but I was hoping to get more color on the total cost of capital if you are able to reduce to investment grade?
Jay Brown:
Well, I think ultimately that's determined by the market. What I would tell you and based on the work that we've done, if there is meaningful benefits to the company over time we believe from achieving investment-grade credit rating, our aim as a business, as we've talked about over the long period of time, we think we can generate a significant amount of shareholder value by the way we add additional revenue to the existing assets that we own, allocate the remaining portion of the capital outside of the dividend distribution, smart investments like we've talked about this morning for small cells. And then thirdly, providing a risk profile of the business that lowers the cost of capital. And there's a lot of things that go into that. Part of it is how we allocate the capital and the percent of that capital that is distributed to shareholders in the form of basically a certain return on investment that's made. We think another component of that is capital structure so that the business regardless of the cycle that the market may be in, has a view that the business and the balance sheet are sustainable and can continue to achieve a low cost which provides additional certainty to the payment of the dividend. And so I'll leave investors to make their own judgment on where they think ultimately the cost of the equity should fall. Today, if you look at where our credit rating is and where bonds are trading and if you were to assume that we were at the low end of an investment-grade credit rating, there may be 80 to 100 basis points of a difference in where we would issue a bond, a 10-year bond investment-grade, non-investment grade. So there are certainly some debt costs associated with that and improvement in the overall cost of debt, but more broadly as we speak about this, we think there are more broad implications in terms of how the business achieves a lower overall cost of capital over the long-term and that's why we're focused on it.
Justin Ages:
Great, thank you.
Operator:
And we will go to Rick Prentiss with Raymond James.
Rick Prentiss:
Thanks. Good morning, guys.
Jay Brown:
Hey, Rick.
Rick Prentiss:
Hey. Two questions, if I could. First, I think Ben you were mentioning how a lot of the services business – it might have been Jay, at your own towers, if I remember right, you guys had about 6,000 towers from Sprint back from the old Global Signal acquisition. Are you seeing any activity from a services business standpoint in your guidance for Sprint starting to activate its Spark Project, the 2.5 gigahertz stuff?
Ben Moreland:
Yeah. Rick, I think we are going to probably decline to get into specifics around what a particular career is doing on our sites. You know we normally refer you back to them to talk about their own activity, that’s sort of their business. And we've talked about overall, I think to Simon's original question, overall activity we are seeing that’s consistent with what we saw at the beginning of the year and up a little bit as Jay mentioned in our guidance that we’ve trimmed up a little bit for the year of the first quarter. So probably not going to get into a whole lot of specifics there. I would actually make a comment about our services business, though, that's helpful to remind everybody. In 2014, we grew that business about 40%, which was consistent with the growth in the portfolio really over the last year or so from ‘13 as we brought on the AT&T Towers. So when we projected for 2015 that the services contribution would be similar to what we saw in ‘14, that's also consistent with the portfolio size. So that's effectively what's happening this year is that we are running, we think, pretty well flat to last year's contribution, which is consistent with the size of the portfolio and so just an observation for those that may not be paying that close attention to our history.
Rick Prentiss:
Okay. And then a bizarre question next. With Sprint, we understand there is a lot of discussion with vendors, equipment manufacturers about providing vendor financing to help them maybe look at deploying that Spark Project, have you ever considered offering financing to carriers for higher rent?
Ben Moreland:
Let me just say this, yes, we have considered it. It has been proposed and when we’ve looked at it, we haven't found it to be an attractive proposition for us, nor a gating factor that determined whether a carrier went on a site or not. So, obviously, our objective is what we work on every day is getting carriers on our towers and we could not satisfy ourselves at providing financing or not would actually influence the buying decision whether they needed that tower or not. So, typically the carriers have access to capital for many different sources from public markets, vendor financing as you suggest and we have had it proposed a few times and it frankly did not look that compelling to us to actually sway the buying decision and so, we decided so far not to do it.
Rick Prentiss:
That makes sense, right. So, a lot more nice to be a tower company than an equipment company. The final question I've got for you is on the small cells, Jay, you mentioned 2,500 anchor or co-los are in backlog awarded but not in construction. How much CapEx should we think is associated with that? And then, you said one of the challenges is just deploying it. Talk to us a little bit about the gating factors there, is it money, is it people, what do we talked about there?
Jay Brown:
The 2,500 that I referenced is a combination of anchor builds as well as co-locations on existing systems. The anchor builds, typically when we’re building new anchor builds, we’re spending about $100,000 per node. The majority of that cost is associated with building the fiber, to build the system, where those notes are going to go. The amount of capital necessary as co-locate on existing systems is significantly lower than that. What I would guide you towards is, if you look at our activity in small cells and the amount of capital that we've been spending over the last several quarters, our forward look is about the level that we’ve spent over the last two quarters if you were to annualize the two to three quarters, if you were to annualize it, maybe trending upwards a little bit. Obviously, as you've heard us talk about this business over time, this is – it’s directly related to the returns that we see in the business. So, to the extent that the return stay intact as we see currently, then we’re happy to continue to pursue RFPs and other initiatives that the carriers are launching in various markets to pursue to expand and frankly invest more capital than even our run rate would suggest as long as the return expectations stay the same. So -- and I think the -- if you think then about what's the biggest hurdle, the hurdle is not necessarily around not having enough capital to pursue it, we have access to plenty of capitals continue to do it. We would be focused on where the returns appropriately reflecting what we like about the business and where we think the growth is and then frankly, do we have enough manpower to achieve and accomplish what the carriers are looking to do.
Ben Moreland:
And really it's the gating factors, as you suggested Rick, are really the whole cycle of construction. It’s the designing of the systems with the carriers input, real estate permitting and then real estate rights, securing those rights and then permitting and then the construction and the longer we’re at this, the better we get, we've got a lot of folks that are extremely good at what they do and I think actually by far leading position in the industry in that capability but it hasn’t necessarily shorten us the construction cycle and I'm very convinced it's a significant barrier to entry in this business, because there is a lot to actually building on these systems and getting the carriers installed on time and on budget and we're getting pretty good at that.
Rick Prentiss:
If I remember right, it was about $50 million last quarter, $70 million this quarter, so may be a $120 million for the last two quarters in CapEx or may be $240 million to $250 million annual is kind of what you're thinking like?
Jay Brown:
That's our current -- that’s our current run rate and to the extent we find more opportunities, we’re happy to invest more capital than that.
Rick Prentiss:
Great, thanks guys.
Operator:
And we’ll go to Kevin Smithen with Macquarie.
Kevin Smithen:
Thanks. Jay, what is the expected incremental small cell node revenue connections required to hit the midpoint, high-end and low-end of guidance? Of the 2,500 in backlog, how many will actually generate revenue by the end of December?
Jay Brown:
Very little, very little, if any. Typically once we started construction of small cells, we’re in a 15 month to 18 month cycle in most cases. So, those would likely represent activity that will come online in 2016. We have a very healthy backlog of nodes that are currently in construction. If you look at our total revenue guidance, 2014 to 2015, we’re expecting revenue growth of between $150 million and $160 million in total, and small cells would comprise about $50 million to $60 million of that growth and towers being the remainder $100 million of that growth and that's the way it falls out. Obviously, a number -- when you look at the year-over-year impact, a number of -- meaningful portion of that $50 million to $60 million of growth in small cells are nodes that we’re turning on now during the second quarter that will then produce revenue for the balance of the year.
Kevin Smithen:
And then, if I start to look at the 5.0% organic cash growth and 2.3% cap growth and you factor in these small cell connections straight-line and incremental churn, it appears you could see a nice bump up of cap and organic cash leasing growth in ‘16, is that the right way to think about it all else are being equal, knowing what you know today?
Jay Brown:
I think -- and we're certainly not going to give guidance this year in 2016 -- for 2016, but what I would tell you is, we've laid out a five-year forecast of how we think AFFO per share growth on an organic basis of about 6% to 7% and add to that the dividend distribution that we're going to make. Assumed in that is a level of leasing activity similar to what we saw in 2014 and saw in 2015 -- and are seeing in 2015. The change that we expect to see in 2015 to 2016 is a reduction in the impact of churn. In calendar year 2015, we’re expecting the impact of churn to be approximately $115 million and in 2016, as we've laid out our longer-term forecast for the non-renewals, we expect that number to be approximately $75 million in 2016. So, the pickup that we would expect at least based on our longer-term forecast that we’ve provided to you would be not so much a change in activity, we've assumed a similar level of activity, but in the amount of non-renewables, we’re assuming a reduction in that by about $40 million, thereby increasing the amount of AFFO, you want to think about it that way, or net organic leasing. It's about a 2% increase roughly at AFFO line if you’re comparing 2015 to what would be flowing through those assumptions in 2016 impact.
Kevin Smithen:
Got it. And any color on straight-line for next year?
Jay Brown:
I wouldn't give you that much -- I wouldn’t get into that much detail on this call. We’ll give 2016 outlook when we get to the third quarter. One thing that I would point it to, which can be helpful if you're looking at that, we are providing a significant amount of detail on that supplemental package and you can see what's currently on the book today and what the burn off of straight-line revenues overtime for years well beyond 2016 and those would reflect all of the leases that are currently signed and producing revenue and you can see how that flows I think out through 2022.
Kevin Smithen:
Great, thank you.
Operator:
And next we’ll go to Amir Rozwadowski with Barclays.
Amir Rozwadowski:
Thank you very much and just following up on the prior question, sort of understanding the longevity of what seems to be a healthy investment environment, it does seem like your expectations are baking in sort of a reduction in the churn impact, which should ease moving away from 2015. I'm sort of sitting back and thinking, we've got commentary out there that Sprint seems to be focused on network densification initiatives, T-Mobile has been vocal about its A-Block spectrum build. Obviously, we just had the AWS-3 spectrum auctions and public safety, if I start to put all of those pieces together, can we find ourselves in a situation in which you have a spending environment that at least as good but potentially better when looking at all these sort of moving pieces from the carrier side?
Ben Moreland:
Sure. Amir, this is Ben. Look, I think everything you just outlined is possible and longer beyond even that is the deployment of AWS-3 spectrum that was just auctioned. So -- and then, you mentioned FirstNet potentially and then the Dish spectrum. Having been at this for a long time like many of us here have, there are always ebbs and flows and sure, the leasing environment could improve in ‘16 or ’17. I would caution you though that remember, we’re adding about a $100 million of new revenue per year on the tower base today as Jay just mentioned. And so, if that were to increase by less just say, 30%, for example to take some of your upside, that's a 1% change in revenue growth or about 2% change in AFFO growth. So, we work on that every day, that's what everybody listening to this call looks at Crown is focused on, but I want to caution you and it's one of the wonderful things about this business, the inflections up or down are relatively muted and as we mentioned, out of a 10% or 11% sort of total return profile, two-thirds of that’s already on the books in the current dividend plus the contracted escalators. So, that last third, which is growth, absolutely focused on it, but maybe the up and down on that is a couple of percentage points on AFFO growth, which we’d love to see, don't get me wrong, but that's one of the wonderful things about the business is it’s not very movable to tell you the truth.
Amir Rozwadowski:
That's very helpful. And then just a follow-up question here, obviously you folks have taken a differentiated view versus some of your peers on the international arena. We’re starting to hear some I guess chatter about potential assets coming available in Europe, which is sort of a different investment profile than where we’ve seen sort of international expansion take place with some of your peers before. I was wondering what your thoughts could be around if some of those assets became available, whether or not, they would be attractive and if that would sort of change a shift in focus for you as some of those assets became available?
Ben Moreland:
Sure. It's certainly something we would look at. We use to operate in the UK in a very large way. The European market has developed in a much different way than North America, so we would want to make certain that the underwriting of those assets are appropriately took into account and what the collocation opportunity was going to be over time there. I would in a positive sense, we’re marking our ability to finance locally there at a very attractive level, so to the extent, we have been looking at something there, we could certainly put an implicit hedge on the currency by financing locally. So there are a lot of attractive attributes to look into Western Europe, it would come down in my mind to what’s the underwriting on the towers and what’s the opportunity for revenue growth around the marketplace there and there are some dynamics in the Western European market that's made it a little more challenging to underwrite collocation growth and so we would want to make sure we would get that right, but I have absolutely no natural aversion to that, and think it's something that we could certainly look at.
Amir Rozwadowski:
Thank you very much for the incremental color.
Ben Moreland:
You bet.
Operator:
And we will go to Colby Synesael with Cowen and Company.
Colby Synesael:CWAN:
Jay Brown:
Colby, on your first question around total CapEx, as we gave the guidance previously, I think we would expect to consume all of the excess cash flow if you were to take AFFO, subtract out the dividend that we're – our current policy suggests for the balance of the year, I think we will spend all of that on activities, the vast majority of which is likely to be directed towards small cells. As I answered one of the earlier questions about activity and interest in expanding it, given the returns that we're seeing in small cells, we would be willing to go beyond that cash flow amount and finance opportunities to the extent they exceeded the amount of cash flow that's produced, but I think as a starting point, what I would suggest is that you assume we utilize all of the excess cash flow beyond the dividend for investment in assets and that may ebb and flow a little bit quarter to quarter depending on how many projects we complete in any given quarter.
Ben Moreland:
Colby, without taking everybody through technology lessons, I'm certainly not qualified to do on the call, I will make one comment about what we’ve seen around the CWAN architecture and the possibilities there, and it’s extremely early. Essentially what it may do for us is, it may remove some of the ground space requirements at towers and so to the extent you got a tower that may have a ground space challenge, i.e. not a very big footprint, by moving those base stations offsite into sort of a base station hotel and remotely powering that through fiber is something that we look at positively over time and potentially makes the upgrade cost of some of the smaller monopoles diminished and makes them more attractive over time. So it's extremely early, but I think the trend will be if we go down that path with that kind of architecture is that it's going to add value to some of the smaller sites, but potentially would have been challenging or expensive to add additional land and that may not be required now. That's about all I have on that so far.
Colby Synesael:
Okay, great. I'll take it. Thank you.
Operator:
Next we will go to Batya Levi with UBS.
Batya Levi:
Great. Thanks. Couple of follow-ups. First, on the CapEx spent on the existing sites I think it was $98 million, can you talk about how much capacity that creates? And how -- if you could help us gauge what the incremental boost to revenue growth it would provide over the longer term, and if that level shifts towards more small cells and sort of like a one quarter pickup? And then if you could also provide some color on that $15 million increase in the organic growth, was that mostly coming from small cells and maybe the breakdown of activity in terms of amendments and new licenses? Thank you.
Jay Brown:
Okay, sure. On your first question, when we spend CapEx on existing sites, that's always success based as we like to say around the place. The success base means that we don't spend any of the capital until there is a tenant ready to go on to that particular site. And so in terms of increasing the capacity of our existing sites, occasionally there is some natural increase to the capacity of the site than generally the site is made ready for the tenant who is standing there ready to go on it. The impact that we have to revenues as we know oftentimes is a part of that transaction we received, some upfront prepaid rents associated with the site, and so it does benefit longer term recurring revenues as we receive some of that rent upfront rather than amortized on -- rather than receiving it on a cash basis, month-to-month. On your second question around the increase in $15 million that we increased 2015 outlook for site rental revenue, virtually all of that is related to a small cell activity. It was very little that came from towers, the vast majority of it was small cell and achieved a good portion of that in the first quarter increasing our run rate for the balance of 2015. The split of new licences and amendments, very similar to what we expected. We think full-year 2015 is pretty similar to what we saw in the quarter, is in the neighborhood of 60% to 65% new licences and the balance being amendments, that's what we saw approximately in 2014 and we expect a similar level in 2015.
Batya Levi:
Great, thank you.
Operator:
Next, we will go to Michael Bowen with Pacific Crest.
Michael Bowen:
Okay. Thank you very much for taking the questions, most have been asked. But I'm curious about when you talk about -- I think you said it both ways on the call, so I'm hoping you can clarify this, I believe you said AFFO, but then also AFFO per share growth over the next five years in that 6% to 7% range. So once we clear that up, under what scenarios could we possibly see rather than that staying steady. Given the spectrum allocation and more spectrum to come next year, more deployments obviously, it almost implies that you are predicting a headwind against some other growth given a backdrop of strong spectrum deployment and continued CapEx on the wireless side, so if you could talk to that, that would be helpful?
Ben Moreland:
Okay, sure. Well, to clear up your first one, that’s easy, yeah, we mean per share. So AFFO per share is all we work on around here, that's all that really matters. So certainly -- and so our statement of 6% to 7% AFFO per share growth is our five-year outlook on what we can deliver. And then to the headwind comment, actually it's maybe exactly the reverse, so let me walk you through as you can tell this year our guidance is about 5% AFFO growth and I would just point out that's carrying 800 basis points of non-renewals and about 100 basis points of FX headwind, so you can -- I'm actually kind of proud of that if you look at the core growth in the business that we are able to generate that 5% net. So the 5% net number this year, if we are making a five-year statement saying 6% to 7% over five years, we will then obviously, then it has to pick up in the second through the fifth year. And I think where Jay took the previous question is kind of where I would go, which is for planning purposes, we would suggest that we capture that additional growth to get back to that 6% to 7% over five years by the reduction in non-renewals as we've laid out in the supplement. This is the peak year for non-renewals and as that tails off, we pick up a couple of hundred basis points in the next year and probably more in the following year, just on the basis of the same level of leasing. And as I was answering the question earlier, we will absolutely work on capturing additional leasing opportunities if they are there, and there is a scenario where they are there. I think that each of the carriers in their own way of talking about adding self-identity and the requirements to do that, I think that's an inevitable outcome of the spectrum auctions and the demands being placed from the systems by mobile data as we talked about earlier. So I think it's inevitable that we're going to see continued leasing, I can't -- like we are seeing today, I can't today forecast for you if that's going to sort of – a bunch of favorable trends conspired to the point where we pick up maybe another 30% of leasing, which should be again 1% incremental revenue growth and about an incremental 200 basis points of AFFO line, that would be tremendous if that happens, but it would require that all four carriers sort of pull on their orders at the same time and that's not often the case in our industry. We have people doing various stages of their deployment cycle that's always been the case and so it – we don't plan on seeing an inflection point up, but there is a case that can be made that that's possible, certainly and if it's there, I can assure you will can capture it.
Michael Bowen:
And then a quick follow-up actually, you mentioned four carriers now we possibly might have a fifth with the announcement from Google yesterday on Project Fi, can you give some thoughts, have you had discussions with Google, have you talked to them about this and how this may impact your business?
Ben Moreland:
We have actually had a number of conversations with Google, I really won’t go into the substance of those, but as you would expect, they’re extremely well-versed in wireless and wireless networks. I think what we see in their announcement yesterday is a continuation of what we've seen for a long time and that is, there is a lot of outside companies with a vested interest in having access to wireless consumers. And so, that's always been the case, and Google being the latest one. I look at it as a net positive and that it’s going to drive to the extent they’re successful, it's going to drive additional network capacity requirements into the Sprint and T-Mobile networks, which fundamentally and gives them a revenue stream to then reinvest in network capacity to accommodate that demand. And given the fact that and I don't say this lightly, given the fact where we sit, we are the most expeditious and cost-effective way to add network capacity unlike where we sit. And so, we’ll see how that develops over time, but as carriers deploy additional spectrum, as they add additional equipment and new cell sites, we as Crown and frankly the industry are the most effective cost-effective way for that to occur.
Michael Bowen:
Okay. Thanks for taking those questions.
Operator:
And we’ll take Spencer Kurn with New Street Research.
Spencer Kurn:
Hey, guys. Thanks for taking the question. Given the new AMX tower spend in Mexico, I just wanted to know if you have any thoughts on how the Mexican market compares to other international markets you looked at, whether you're more comfortable with risk profile there? Thanks.
Ben Moreland:
To be honest, we haven't looked at that carefully lately. It's true that in many emerging markets, the case for wireless growth is very clear. We can all understand how consumers who may not have had access to the wireless or certainly to the Internet, now offered an affordable alternative would be high users of wireless data and a shared infrastructure model in many of these markets makes perfect sense. It all depends on our mind on -- we bring the wrong currency to any other market that we would enter by definition and so it's completely a function of initial, pricing the assets such that it reflects the risk undertaking -- we would be undertaking in terms of the currency movement and then, what the fundamental growth on the revenue per site opportunity is in terms of collocation to achieve an attractive total return on investment. And thus far, in most of those markets, frankly in all of those markets, we haven't seen that price equation come back into sort of congruity for us, but others have different views and so to me it's not a question of the business model, it's purely a reflection on price and pricing in that mismatch of currency.
Spencer Kurn:
Thanks. And just one more if I may on small cells. The revenue growth has been accelerating, pretty steadily for the last four or five quarters. Could you talk about you know do you have enough longevity to know to get sense for the organic contribution that you've been seeing?
Ben Moreland:
I don't know how to parse that for you Spencer, there's a lot of nomenclature in that business that's not the same as towers and so, what I would say is, we have a significant amount of collocation going on, which you might say is, okay, well that's organic, I would agree with you, but every time you look at one of those, there is always typically an additional lateral or two or three that a new carrier would take that the old carrier didn't, and so that would not be organic, that would be new, if you will. So, I don't want to take with you all this on the call, but it's a hybrid, it's always a hybrid between collocation and new. And if we look at our total growth in that business, it's a significant contribution from colos and then a significant contribution from new. That's about the tightest thing you might get.
Jay Brown:
Spencer, I think one of the things just as you’re modeling the business and thinking about that you find over time is that, in the tower cases, you are building towers, the input costs as well as monthly rents and the operating costs are relatively stable and have been for a long period of time, when we look at small cells, we’re really, we’re making a financial transaction where we’re pricing the rent for the carrier, the various components of the relationship between the carrier that installs there against a very different proposition. The cost can vary per system, the number of nodes per fiber mile can vary per system, thus varying the amount of cost of fiber, some of it can be aerial, some of it can be buried, we can be in locations where it's very expensive to dig up a sidewalk for instance, in other places where the cost of laying fiber is not as high. And so, because the costs are so variable, therefore the revenue and the margin in terms of nominal dollars vary. And so, as we think about the business and allocate capital, we're always looking at it on a yield and total return basis and those conversations and systems look very different than what they do historically when we build towers. So, where we have given most of our disclosure and as we've talked about the businesses that you've heard on past calls and again this morning, we focus on how is the yield on total investment doing and as we mentioned, the largest portion of the $1.7 billion that we've invested was an asset that we bought at about 4% yield and we’ve taken the entire small cell contribution and returned on the investment that we’ve made in small cells. We've taken that entire $1.7 billion to a 7% yield today, which implies a significant amount of contribution on a -- I think as we could all call it organic basis. But as Ben mentioned, it's a blend, so it's not as clean, it’s just looking at if you own [ph] the tower yesterday and today and what portion of the revenues or cash flows came on a same tower basis, it's not as clean. So we focus more on yields and looking at yields and looking at driving total yields up on the existing total base of capital. And maybe -- hopefully that's helpful color as you think about modeling the business.
Spencer Kurn:
Very helpful. Thanks again.
Jay Brown:
I think we have time for maybe one more question.
Operator:
And we’ll take our last question from Ana Goshko with Bank of America.
Ana Goshko:
Hi, thanks very much. I will try to make it quick. I just wanted to follow-up on the earlier comments, and there is a lot of focus on the benefits of getting to an investment grade rating and the companies intend to do that in the short term, but then when you talked about the potential completion of the Australian asset sale or unit stake, you said the intend would be to leave leverage neutral and I’m wondering why isn’t that an opportunity to reduce leverage and really be the catalyst to get the company over the goal line into the investor grade rating?
Jay Brown:
Sure, Ana. I think when we say leverage neutral; we mean that on a ratio basis, not nominal dollars, so we would think about it as maintaining leverage neutral on a ratio basis. When we have looked at this and have done this over time for a long period of time, there is obviously one would call away or a path towards getting to five times that is not necessarily necessary. So we think about this and have worked on this for a number of years of letting the growth in EBITDA naturally deleverage the business towards investment grade and we don't see any impetus or need frankly to accelerate that beyond what we would see in due course. So I think in all likelihood as Ben described, if we’re ultimately successful in monetizing our Australia business unit, then you should expect us to maintain leverage ratio neutral and then invest the balance of the capital in either assets or the purchase of our own stock and we’ll naturally grow towards getting to the investment grade credit ratios that we’re aiming towards.
Ben Moreland:
I mean it's a great question, I think the answer is we’re going to get there soon enough either way and so we don’t, we would use that capital for incremental growth in all likelihood.
Ana Goshko:
Okay and then just as a quick follow-up, one of the issues with I think the overall rating is the company has taken advantage of the secured and securitized market, where you do get a low cost of capital, but that does put pressure on the rating. Where are you guys, I’m thinking of moving towards more of a investment grade type capital structure where you really have less secured and it does lift the pressure that the agencies put on the overall corporate rating?
Ben Moreland:
You’re right and I think over time, as we get towards that investment grade credit rating and maybe even as we achieve it, you’ll see us having more simplified capital structure today, we have several entities underneath our parent that have availed themselves to securitize debt and that's enabled us to achieve a very low cost of capital even though leverage maybe outside of what would be typical be an investment grade credit. So, I think what you’ll see over time is, we’ll clean up some of the complexity in the capital structure, which will mean a lessening of our exposure to securitize debt and more of the debt move towards the holding company. But I don't think you should expect that all of it will go away, I think we’ll continue to avail ourselves of that market, it gives us some diversity of sources of capital and even once we do achieve an investment grade credit rating, I think we’ll still find that attracting some debt capital on a securitized basis with some portion of our assets makes good sense and helps to lower the overall cost of debt and capital.
Ana Goshko:
Okay, great. Thank you very much.
Son Nguyen:
Very good. I think that wraps us up. Thank you for staying with us. I guess we went 70 minutes. Appreciate everybody's attention and we look forward to speaking with you on next quarter’s call. Thank you.
Operator:
That concludes today’s conference. Thank you for your participation.
Executives:
Son Nguyen - VP, Corporate Finance W. Benjamin Moreland - President and CEO Jay A. Brown - CFO and Treasurer
Analysts:
Phil Cusick - J. P. Morgan Simon Flannery - Morgan Stanley David Barden - BofA Merrill Lynch Richard Prentiss - Raymond James Jonathan Atkin - RBC Capital Markets Michael Rollins - Citi Kevin Smithen - Macquarie Capital Amir Rozwadowski - Barclays Capital Colby Synesael - Cowen and Company Mike McCormack - Jefferies & Company Michael Bowen - Pacific Crest Spencer Kurn - New Street Research Batya Levi - UBS Jonathan Schildkraut - Evercore ISI Ana Goshko - Bank of America Merrill Lynch
Operator:
Good day and welcome to the Crown Castle International Q4 2014 Earnings Call. Today's conference is being recorded. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Son Nguyen. Please go ahead, sir.
Son Nguyen:
Thank you, Carla, and good morning everyone. Thank you for joining us today as we review our fourth quarter and full year 2014 results. With me on the call this morning are Ben Moreland, Crown Castle's Chief Executive Officer, and Jay Brown, Crown Castle's Chief Financial Officer. To aid the discussion, we have posted supplemental materials in the Investors section of our Web-site at crowncastle.com, which we will refer to throughout the call this morning. This conference call will contain forward-looking statements which are subject to certain risks, uncertainties and assumptions, and actual results may vary materially from those expected. Information about potential factors which could affect our results is available in the press release and the Risk Factors section of the Company's SEC filings. Our statements are made as of today, January 22, 2015, and we assume no obligation to update any forward-looking statements. In addition, today's call includes discussions of certain non-GAAP financial measures. Tables reconciling these non-GAAP financial measures are available in the supplemental information package in the Investors section of the Company's Web-site at crowncastle.com. With that, I'll turn the call over to Ben.
W. Benjamin Moreland:
Thanks, Son, and good morning everyone. Thank you for joining us on this call. As we indicated in our earnings release last night, we had another great quarter finishing 2014 on a very strong note allowing us to increase our full year 2015 outlook, which Jay will speak to shortly. In addition to the excellent financial results, we had several major accomplishments during the year that position us very well for 2015 and beyond. First, we have successfully completed the integration of the AT&T tower portfolio with 9,700 sites and are now seeing healthy application volume on these assets. The AT&T tower transaction represents the sixth carrier portfolio we have acquired in our Company's history. As shown on Slide 3, we have a portfolio of approximately 40,000 towers. Over time, we've accumulated a long track record of integrating and leasing our assets and delivering growth through various economic and industry cycles. We believe we are well-positioned and on our way to delivering the same results with AT&T and T-Mobile portfolios as has become our track record. Similar to our acquisitions in the late 1990s and early 2000s, we acquired the AT&T assets and the T-Mobile assets at initial yields of approximately 5%. Long-term, we believe we can drive the yield on these recently acquired assets to similar levels as our legacy assets which currently yield approximately 15% on invested capital. The AT&T and T-Mobile assets represent approximately 40% of our tower portfolio and provide an excellent opportunity for us to extend our runway of growth. Second, during the year, we meaningfully increased our small cell networks portfolio and capabilities. Small cell networks have similarities to towers including the same customer base, the growth drivers and similar contractual terms. Small cells are playing an integral role in solving capacity and coverage issues in areas not traditionally served by towers. Today, our team is executing extremely well and we are focused on delivering on a growing pipeline. Currently, a significantly majority of our small cell activity is being driven by Verizon. However, we are pleased that we are starting to see increased interest from other carriers to add small cell nodes across our fiber assets. Our acquisition of NextG in 2012 cemented our leadership position in small cell networks. At the time of the acquisition, we had a stated goal of increasing adjusted EBITDA from small cells by 5x to 6x over the next five years. I'm happy to report that we are on pace to well exceed this goal. Third, at the beginning of 2014, we commenced operations as a REIT and initiated our first dividend. Subsequently during the fourth quarter, we meaningfully increased our dividend to a quarterly dividend of $0.82 per share or $3.28 per share annually. On this last point, I want to spend a couple of minutes discussing how our core business supports our commitment to the dividend and how we intend to grow our dividend over time by leveraging the investments we have made over the last several years along with potential future investments. We believe delivering a portion of shareholder returns through dividends aligns well with the fundamentals of the business. The wireless infrastructure assets that we own and operate, whether towers or small cells, are characterized by high-quality, long-term recurring cash flows that are well suited for committed shareholder distributions. As shown on Slide 4, today we have about $22 billion of future high quality revenues under long-term contract, primarily with the four major U.S. wireless carriers. For context, these carriers have a combined market capitalization of approximately $415 billion and an operating cash flow of approximately $75 billion and a composite average borrowing cost of about 4.5%. The quality and contractual nature of our tenant leases provide us with great visibility. In any given year, over 95% of our site rental revenues are typically under contract as of January 1. Over time we expect to increase our dividend commensurate with the rate of AFFO growth. Future organic growth is expected to come from a combination of contracted escalators, leasing on our existing portfolios and investment opportunities that are additive to our long-term growth. We expect that these three avenues of growth will combine to generate AFFO growth over the next five years in the range of 6% to 7%, of which half is currently contracted via escalators on our tenant lease contracts. Based on last night's closing share price, the combination of a dividend yield of approximately 4% and the expected long-term organic growth in the 6% to 7% range delivers total returns 10% to 11%. Of this expected total return, approximately two-thirds is achieved via the current dividend and the contracted escalators under our tenant leases. Frankly, we believe this expected total return of 10% to 11% sells our business model short. As we look at some comparables such as the RMZ index which has an average dividend yield of 3.5% and arguably lower growth, we believe our superior business model should attract a lower cost of capital over time. This belief is based on our intentional strategy of avoiding volatile assets with risks such as foreign currency and country risks into our high-quality portfolio, thus giving us the confidence to make the commitment that we have made to a significant return of capital to shareholders. Fundamentally, we view our dividend as a growing annuity paid to shareholders in the form of contracted, bond-like recurring cash flows, plus the conversion of future growth opportunities that are supported by the increasing demand for wireless broadband services. As effectively a flow-through entity or conduit of these cash flows supporting the mission-critical wireless infrastructure of the four largest U.S. carriers, we believe that our expected total return of 10% to 11% compares extremely favorably to a composite bond yield of our tenant customers of 4.5% as I mentioned. When we talk about the mission-critical nature of wireless infrastructure assets, we are referring to Crown Castle's role in enabling the U.S. wireless carriers to deploy mobile broadband. Carriers utilize our infrastructure to support service to their subscribers. As a result, our long-term growth potential is driven by the dynamics that play out between the wireless subscriber demand for mobile broadband and incremental economics that carriers can achieve by investing in their networks. Towards that end, we believe our focus in the U.S., where carriers have the most apparent economic motivation to invest in the world, will drive compelling risk-adjusted total shareholder returns over time. As you can see on Slide 5, the U.S. market is uniquely attractive due to its relative size and robustness compared to other markets. The size of the U.S. market is supported by the high average revenue per user, reflecting the insatiable demand the U.S. wireless subscribers have for mobile data. For context, a year ago the average smartphone user consumed 1 gigabyte of data per year. Today it is estimated that the average smartphone user consumes 2 gigabytes of data per year. So what took six years to build up to starting with the original iPhone has taken just one year to double given today's devices and applications. This increasing demand that U.S. consumers are placing on the carriers' networks and the consumers' willingness to pay for such services incent the U.S. carriers to continue to invest to improve and enhance their networks. As carriers continue to compete on the quality of their networks, such investments help maintain and drive up ARPU, encourage new device and application adoption and minimize churn. The carriers' ability to generate incremental returns on their capital investment can be seen by the approximate $600 average annual revenues per subscriber that U.S. carriers are earning compared to approximately $100 per annual investment per subscriber that they are making. Relative to other countries, U.S. carriers have opportunities to invest and generate returns at a much larger scale. The ongoing AWS-3 auction further reinforces our belief that U.S. carriers have a long-term and positive view on mobile broadband services. These spectrum auctions, in addition to spectrum that currently resides with wireless carriers that has not yet been deployed, require wireless infrastructure to be deployed and thus provide a long runway of future demand for our portfolio of assets. As the U.S. market leader with nearly 40,000 towers and a very attractive and growing small cell opportunity currently at 14,000 nodes, we are well-positioned to help the U.S. carriers meet the growing demand by consumers for mobile broadband services. Before turning the call over to Jay, I want to take a brief moment to thank our team of Crown Castle professionals who have worked tirelessly during 2014 to make it such a successful year and I look forward to another successful year in 2015. And with that, I'm pleased to turn the call over to Jay for some more comments.
Jay A. Brown:
Thanks, Ben. Good morning, everyone. Turning to the financial results, we had a terrific fourth quarter, exceeding the high end of our previously issued outlook for site rental revenue and adjusted EBITDA. The strong leasing activity continued during the fourth quarter and we believe that 2014's level of leasing will be sustained during 2015. The combination of excellent results and completed acquisitions during the fourth quarter 2014 allow us to increase our full year 2015 outlook. Turning to Slide 6, in the fourth quarter, site rental revenue grew 17% year-over-year from $651 million to $761 million. Organic site rental revenue grew 7% year-over-year comprised of approximately 4% growth from cash, escalations and our tenant lease contracts and approximately 7% growth from new leasing activity, net of approximately 4% from non-renewal. As can be seen on Slide 7, our organic site rental revenue growth has been enhanced by the investments we have made over the last several years, including in the T-Mobile portfolio and small cells. Our legacy tower assets excluding T-Mobile, AT&T and small cells generated year-over-year organic site rental revenue growth of approximately 4%, inclusive of non-renewal headwind. The 4% growth in our legacy U.S. tower assets compares to approximately 6% for the T-Mobile portfolio. While we didn't present the AT&T portfolio here on the slide because it wasn't owned for the entire 12 month period, the AT&T portfolio's revenue growth is similar to the T-Mobile assets after a similar period of ownership. And based on our underwriting assumption of adding one tenant over 10 years, the AT&T and T-Mobile portfolios have added approximately 200 basis points to our expected long-term dividend growth target that Ben mentioned, which is 6% to 7% compound annual growth over the next five years. Turning to small cells, we continued to see healthy growth. Site rental revenue from small cell networks is up approximately 30% year-over-year contributing approximately 7% to consolidated site rental revenues. At the end of the fourth quarter, we had over 7,000 miles of fiber serving over 14,000 small cell nodes on air or under construction. We believe our strategically located fiber will continue to see meaningful addition of tenant nodes, thereby driving yields higher over time. We continue to make investments in fiber to deploy these small cells as we believe the investment is delivering attractive returns and will increase our long-term dividend capacity. On a unit economic basis, we are generally seeing initial yields from the fiber we deployed for small cells of approximately 6% to 8% on the anchor tenant. Similar to towers, we see these yields on our small cell networks being given up into the low to mid teens from additional lease up and amendments. Turning to the investments and financing activities as shown on Slide 8, during the fourth quarter we invested $267 million in capital expenditures. These capital expenditures included $40 million in sustaining capital expenditures which included approximately $3 million that was previously expected in our full year 2015 outlook but was accelerated into the fourth quarter of 2014. Additionally during the quarter, we invested $35 million in land purchases. During 2014, we completed over 2,500 transactions, of which approximately 30% were purchases with the remainder being lease extensions. Our proactive approach to achieving long-term control of the ground beneath our sites is core to our business and as we look to control our largest operating expense and produce stable and growing cash flow over time. Having completed more than 17,000 of these transactions, we believe we have the most secure portfolio of ground interest in the industry. Today approximately one-third of our site rental gross margin is generated from towers on land that we own and approximately 70% on land that we own or lease for more than 20 years. Where we have ground leases, the average term remaining on our ground leases is approximately 30 years. More detailed information regarding the ground interest beneath our towers is available in our supplemental information package. Of the remaining capital expenditures, we invested $192 million in revenue generating capital expenditures, consisting of $91 million on existing sites and $101 million on the construction of new sites primarily small cell construction activity. Further in the fourth quarter, we also invested approximately $286 million in acquisitions. This primarily related to the acquisition of ground interest underneath towers. During the quarter, we also paid a quarterly common stock dividend of $0.82 per share or $274 million in aggregate. As of December 31, our total net debt to last quarter annualized adjusted EBITDA is 5.4x. Our weighted average cost of debt stands at 4.1% with a weighted average maturity of six years. Additionally, since the end of the quarter, we increased our revolving credit facility by $630 million. Our revolving credit facility now totals $2.1 billion, of which we have approximately $1.4 billion available. Moving on to the 2015 outlook on Slide 9, we have increased our full year 2015 outlook for site rental revenue by $11 million, half of which is organic, and AFFO by $8 million at the midpoint. The increased outlook reflects the strong results and completed acquisitions from the fourth quarter 2014 and includes the negative impact from the decrease in foreign exchange rate assumptions related to our Australian business. We completed several acquisitions during the fourth quarter 2014 which did not materially contributed to the full-year 2014 results and are expected to contribute approximately $5 million to AFFO in full year 2015. We expect to generate approximately $1.46 billion in AFFO at the midpoint of our 2015 outlook. Of this amount, we expect to distribute approximately $1.1 billion in dividends and use the remaining portion to invest around our core business to drive our organic growth. These investment activities include purchases of land underneath our towers and construction of small cell networks. We believe the combination of continued investment in our core business, the high-quality contracted cash flows generated by our tenant leases with built-in escalators, and as Ben mentioned the need for our wireless infrastructure as carriers continue to improve their networks, position us to achieve AFFO and dividend growth of 6% to 7% organically on a compounded basis over the next five years. We believe our strategy of focusing in the U.S. which is the largest wireless market in the world will drive growth in AFFO and dividends per share over the long term, which we believe will provide shareholders with very attractive total returns. With that operator, I'm happy to open the call for questions.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] We'll take our first question from Phil Cusick with J.P. Morgan.
Phil Cusick:
I guess I'll start with my traditional question, which is what's driving the services strength? It was up even more in the fourth quarter. Can that continue then into the first quarter and what are you thinking about the rest of the year?
W. Benjamin Moreland:
So we are forecasting 2015 to be essentially the same as 2014 which was a record year for us in terms of services margin, I think about [70 million] [ph] or so. What's driving that frankly is a lot of application volume and we are getting extremely good at capturing the addressable market that's occurring on our towers, and that's everything from the front-end preconstruction work of permitting and zoning all the way through managing the construction of the installation or upgrade on a tower. And so that take rate has been then steadily climbing over the years and we've gotten very good at capturing that opportunity and it's turned into a very nice business that it's application driven but for us it's opportunity. Obviously we're making money at it and it's a great way to stay close to our customers and control most fundamentally what goes on our tower and what's happening at the tower site. So we're very pleased with the business.
Phil Cusick:
Okay. And then second, can you talk to me about the land portfolio acquisition in the fourth quarter? It seemed like that was at a very high multiple. How should we be thinking about that? Is that sort of fairly typical transaction and are there more of those to do this year?
W. Benjamin Moreland:
I don't think there's more to do and it was a little bit atypical. It was a portfolio of sites that are a mixture of our sites and other sites and it had some that are more relatively short dated than we would have otherwise seen. So when you price that you have to assume you price the rent growth over time as those expiries come up, and so as a result the price is a little higher than it would have otherwise normally expected. I don't see a lot more of those to come but in this case they were attractive assets and it made sense for us to pursue it.
Phil Cusick:
Did you guys held up a little bit on that?
W. Benjamin Moreland:
I don't think so. No, that's not how I would characterize it.
Phil Cusick:
Okay. Thanks, Ben.
Operator:
We'll take our next question from Simon Flannery with Morgan Stanley.
Simon Flannery:
Ben, it was nice to see the organic revision higher. It's still very early in the year, you don't always do that. Can you just talk about what you're seeing that gives you the confidence to move on that, and I think you talked about expecting activity from all four players, so perhaps you can just go through what's going on there? And related to that, how should we think about AWS-3 at FirstNet, are we going to get any revenues from that this year or how do you think about it for '16?
W. Benjamin Moreland:
Sure. Simon, we finished the fourth quarter very strong run rate-wise and so we carried that through to our guidance for '15. We maintain a view that we're going to add about 100 million of organic revenue on the tower sites, which is similar to where we were when we initiated guidance back in October. So we haven't really changed our fundamental view of activity. We think 2015 looks a lot like 2014. We were pleased to finish strong in '14 and that's what we reflected in the guidance. We have increased guidance a little bit because we are running ahead of plan on the small cell side and now I think we're at about 50 million of new revenue on that side. So all in all, we're very pleased with what we see for the year, we're three weeks in so it's a little early, but we're sticking with our guns here and it looks to us like a year that's shaping up to look like 2014 with a little bit of upside from the run rate beat on Q4. On the AWS auctions, I guess we take the view that obviously the auctions in terms of pricing have exceeded pretty much anybody's expectations approaching 45 billion today. Our view is that that spectrum needs to get launched. It will get launched and we could potentially see from activity late this year it won't be of any real significance financially this year and it will depend somewhat on the identity of the winning bidders which we'll all know here probably in the next couple of weeks, so we are optimistic and any time there is a spectrum that's auctioned, that's unsold inventory on the shelf for a carrier and they need to deploy it and we stand ready to help them with that.
Simon Flannery:
And anything on FirstNet, will the [Gazelle] [ph] get some of the funding from the auction obviously?
W. Benjamin Moreland:
They will get funded which is positive and we're staying very close to that situation. I don't have anything to announce this morning on the call but it is positive certainly for them if they get their funding that was mandated out of the auction proceeds and look forward to getting some more clarity from them on how that network will proceed.
Operator:
We'll take our next question from David Barden with Bank of America.
David Barden:
Two, if I could. Just the first one following up maybe, Ben, on the AWS-3 auction, I guess because most of the carriers have an AWS spectrum deployment already, they might not be hugely incrementals at all but AT&T doesn't. So do you see that AT&T, if we find out that AT&T is one of the big winners here, does that create incremental demand you think to the outlook that you have right now? And then the second question would be maybe for Jay, I think in the release you talked about how the churn events that you're expecting from these acquired carriers are going to be lumpy, but do you have any specific color that you've gotten from the carriers, for instance in the turndowns in the first half, that you could talk about and kind of how we would model that out?
W. Benjamin Moreland:
Sure, Dave. With respect to the AWS-3 launch over time, we do expect that to be incremental, as has been the case in the past that typically comes with equipment swap-outs and typically more and that would be characterized as an amendment, and to the extent the carriers do that over time, that would be positive to us. I don't look at it really as incremental to our guidance implicitly. The guidance back in October is a little more art than science sometimes, and so implicitly we have some of these things baked in based on our experience over time and how these things roll out. And in particular, our best guess on how each individual of the four carriers impact that $100 million of add, we probably best case get within 20% on any particular carrier's activity just because they don't know particularly what their allocations are and how things will go early in the year, we typically get it pretty close but that's about as good as we can do back in October of the prior year. But at least at this stage, I don't look at it to be incremental to the $100 million of gross adds for the year.
Jay A. Brown:
On our assumption around non-renewals, Dave, we made an assumption obviously when we gave the outlook around the way it was going to come and it is a bit lumpy. The way we laid out the outlook for 2015 front-end loaded the churn events over 2015, the most significant amount that we would expect for the full calendar year we currently believe will happen during the first quarter, and as we look out over the course of the year I think you'll see our sequential revenue growth quarter to quarter actually accelerate and be a little bit higher. So it's typically the case in the business that the year will be back-end loaded from an activity standpoint and we usually see that in terms of activity around leasing this year that that will also be the case as a result of our assumption around churn. I don't really have any new updates to that from what we said last time. The carriers have given us very specific feedback on what sites they would expect to take down and the timing of that. So we've tried to reflect that in our outlook. What we provided yesterday in the press release is very similar to what we provided in October. So our assumptions are effectively unchanged from last time on both revenue growth as well as the non-renewals and then it is front-end loaded.
David Barden:
Right. So the 1Q guidance includes the most significant churn event that you're going to have for the year and then it will kind of fade over the course of the year and we'll start to see that revenue acceleration quarter to quarter?
Jay A. Brown:
That's true in terms of if you are accounting BBEs. Obviously the impact of revenues, you won't feel the impact as much in Q1, you'll start to feel it a little bit more in Q2 if those licenses are turned off during the course of Q1.
David Barden:
Got it. Okay. Thanks guys.
Operator:
We'll take our next question from Rick Prentiss with Raymond James.
Richard Prentiss:
Couple of questions. First, can you talk a little bit about your leverage target? You guys I think were at 5.4x. As you consider transactions that are out there, Verizon have [indiscernible] today but Verizon Extranet, what are you thinking about where your comfort is? You compared yourselves to the REITs obviously in the RMZ. REITs carry a higher leverage than you guys do. Some of your competitors maybe have the U.S. levered more than the international. Then the blended might look a little different considering you are a U.S. focused company. Help us understand a little bit about where you're comfortable with leverage.
Jay A. Brown:
Sure. We've talked a long time about our target being 4x to 6x and have set a course towards trying to get to an investment-grade credit rating which we think has lots of positive implications for both the debt and the equity over time. You've heard us talk about as we think about various assets and other things that for the right assets at the right price, we may tend towards the higher end of that range of leverage and trying to be efficient and get the right returns for assets. But I think typically you'll see us operate the business inside of that range and we tended towards the middle of that range, we think it's about what it's going to take to get to an investment-grade credit rating. So it's really going to be facts and circumstances decision that we'll make for the right asset. You'll see us go above where we are today potentially, but I think in normal course assuming the business is operating as it is now, I can see us tend towards the middle of the range.
Richard Prentiss:
And then can you update us as far as kind of where your NOLs are at and there were some reports out there that the minority partner in Australia might be selling, just trying to understand that process?
Jay A. Brown:
Our NOLs today are at about, right at about 2 billion.
W. Benjamin Moreland:
On the minority partner, Rick, we're not involved in that process. We're aware they may be exploring opportunities. I guess we've seen a press note on that. They've been in it since inception and have generated a lot of value for their company. So they may be exploring options but we're not directly a party to that.
Richard Prentiss:
And when you consider, would someday that be an asset, you guys would consider setting as well and how would the NOLs in the U.S. benefit the gains you would have on that nice sale if it were to occur?
W. Benjamin Moreland:
Sure. I guess I got asked this question last time and covered it real quickly, maybe a little better description as it warranted here. We have done extremely well in Australia and we really have enjoyed our experience down there. That business is about $100 million EBITDA business today, and I think when we bought it, it was $15 million. So we've created an enormous amount of value and continue to serve our customers very well down there. Going forward, it's hard to argue while we enjoy the market dynamics there, it's hard to argue as far away as it is that it's strategic, I think is what I said last time. And so to the extent there was someone who frankly wanted to own it for a value that compelled us to sell it, we would take a look at it. I don't know if there's one there, we're not actively seeking or pursuing anything there, but it is an interesting discussion driven by the tax situation as you partially noted. That business will actually start to lose its tax shelter inherent in the depreciation over time. So we will start paying more and more taxes over time which causes us to think about it. The NOLs that we currently have would enable us to shelter essentially all of the gain if we were to divest that business and bring the proceeds back to the U.S. So the NOL, it would probably consume about half of the NOL or so with the gain. So it's an interesting academic discussion, there's nothing that we're pursuing today, we've enjoyed and continue to enjoy our experience in that business, and if something comes up in the future we'll let you know, but as an academic discussion that's where we stand.
Operator:
We'll take our next question from Jonathan Atkin from RBC.
Jonathan Atkin:
So I have a question on the small cell business and just sort of the strategic outlook in terms of acquiring other operators, and then in terms of your organic growth, if you could give a little bit of color? You talked about the 6% to 8% returns going to low to mid-teens with additional tenancy, and when you bring on additional tenants, what types of additional buildout do you acquire because not everybody has the same outward [gas] [ph] needs, so I was interested in kind of your experience to date on when a second tenant comes on, do you need to outweigh more capital? And then finally, when it comes to just expanding the plans, are you at the right organizational capacity or would you consider adding either contractors or employees to further make investments in United States?
W. Benjamin Moreland:
Sure, Jon, I'll take the last couple of those. As you add a second tenant, we talked about our yields, it's very similar to the tower model, so you're adding additional yield, you're adding across a fixed base of capital and operating expenses typically, but the second tenant it's a little more complicated because inevitably maybe you had a 30 or 40 node system and that carrier coming on the second tenant may want most of that initial footprint, that they may want additional laterals which requires them to invest additional capital for which we get capital reimbursement as well partially. So there's always, it's always a hybrid is what I should say, it's not quite as clean as just a second tenant on a tower. Nonetheless, the yield that ultimately results from that with the second tenant clearly pushes us sort of into the teens area and above that. Clearly you can understand how the economics work. So…
Jonathan Atkin:
If I could briefly interrupt, so is that yield on kind of a same asset basis or is it inclusive of this incremental capital?
W. Benjamin Moreland:
Inclusive, yes inclusive, total investment capital, yes, that's the way we would look at it. And so it's definitely positive leverage as you go forward but it always involves a little more capital because you're building out additional laterals to fit a footprint requirement of that second carrier. In terms of capacity, we have ramped it up dramatically over 2013 and 2014. We have in the pipeline the task in front of us in terms of a build activity that suggests we'll probably continue to ramp it a little bit more but not nearly the orders of magnitude we've done over the last 24 months. And so I think you're going to actually be able to – we will see the sort of incremental margins coming out of that business that we've come to expect and enjoy in the tower business. What we've done over the last few years frankly, and I realize we don't segment report this for you, so you'll just have to take my word for it, what we've done in the last three years essentially is consume the growth in EBITDA, a lot of it, through G&A expansion as we're adding capacity to get to a point where we can build 5,000 to 6,000 nodes a year, which is where we are today, and the pipeline of engagements continues to build. We're getting better at it, getting more efficient but we have put in a management structure that will enable us to meet customer needs at that order of scale, and I think we're probably 80% down the road on where we're going to be on that.
Jay A. Brown:
So on your first question around acquiring other operators, I would tell you we've done two meaningful acquisitions in this space over a long period of time. NextG and NewPath were the two acquisitions that we've done. And not only did we like the assets, where the fiber was located as well as the existing nodes, but we were thrilled with the platform that they brought, the significant internal capabilities that both of those firms have and the talented folks that came with them, and we viewed it as an opportunity for us to expand our small cell platform and give us an opportunity to continue to grow the business which has turned out to be everything that we expected and more and given us lot of opportunities to pursue more than we could have otherwise done if we had not been able to do those two acquisitions. So I think those two have gone very well, and as we look at our capabilities today, I really don't see us pursuing another acquisition at the kind of multiples that we did with NextG and NewPath because we have a platform already. And so if there was an opportunity for us, I think it would look much more like a straight asset sale. So you saw us in the fourth quarter, one of the small acquisitions that we did was a small fiber company in the Northeast where we already had nodes under contract and we saw the opportunity to acquire fiber as a lower-cost alternative to building it ourselves. So you may see us over time do some things like that where there are assets that make sense for us to own and we do a buy versus build analysis and that may make sense, but in terms of looking externally for platforms and needing to do a more strategic thing there, I don't think that's a likely outcome for us.
Jonathan Atkin:
Thanks, and then just a quick follow-up, Title II broadband regulation and thoughts on how that would impact your business?
W. Benjamin Moreland:
Jon, we've looked at that and I don't think there's a direct impact on our business. There's a lot of discussion out there and some emotion involved, and so we'll probably stay away from that question. We're independent and we're a neutral host if you will and the shared infrastructure model works quite well, and we don't really have a dog in that fight currently.
Operator:
We'll take our next question from Michael Rollins of Citi.
Michael Rollins:
Just curious, as you look at the aspirations that you laid out for the five-year AFFO growth and then I think what you talked about the dividend, is it a smooth line that investors should expect in terms of dividend growth or do you see it being accelerated on one part or the other of this sort of five-year horizon period, and obviously you talked about in between some of the churn impacts, just curious how that all relates to what investors should expect on a year-to-year dividend growth?
W. Benjamin Moreland:
Sure, Michael, I'll do my best. As you can see from our guidance this year, we're guiding up on AFFO per share of about 4.2%, 4.3%, so just a shave over 4%, and again that's with about 700 basis points of churn headwind in that number. And so if we are saying, as we are, that a compound annual growth rate we expect over five years to be 6% to 7%, then obviously it has to be higher in the back four years of that. And as Jay mentioned, 2015 looks like our peak churn year in terms of headwind. So with normal activity, which I'm not giving you five-year guidance but we're giving you sort of a five-year target on what we think the cash flow growth is, if activity sort of holds and the churn rolls off as we expect, you'll see a pickup in that AFFO growth rate over time of a couple of hundred basis points in any given year. It obviously has to get to sort of 7% to 8% at some point to get into that 6% to 7% area for the whole five years, and that's our expectation. We're just trying to keep it very simple for everyone so they can track back to their long-term modeling for us, and appreciate that as you get out into the latter part of that five-year period, you're coming off of bigger numbers. So those percentage changes become ever more challenging off of a static asset base, although we are growing the asset base particularly around small cells. So, we expect that the dividend growth will track that. Our working assumption right now is that we will stay in and around sort of a 75% payout on an annual basis and so you'll see it grow kind of in that 6% to 7% CAGR over time, obviously a little bit lighter on the front end probably and then more over time as it tracks AFFO growth.
Operator:
We'll take our next question from Kevin Smithen with Macquarie.
Kevin Smithen:
I noticed that the small cell CapEx was elevated in Q4. Can you talk about how we should think about the seasonality for that, and specific small cell CapEx, how much of this is accelerated demand versus seasonality, why don't we start with that?
Jay A. Brown:
Kevin, we did spend more obviously in the fourth quarter than we had in the other quarters and that's pretty typical in the business as people try to hit year-end targets. So I expect as we talked about on the last quarterly call, when we look at full-year 2015, we sized the dividend paying out about 75% of AFFO based on our expectation that about 25% of the AFFO will be invested in activities around the core business and the majority of that would be related to small cells. So I think in terms of if you're looking for sequential quarter guidance, we would expect that number to come off of what we spent in the fourth quarter and it will typically – our expectation would be it will typically ramp towards the back half of the year in any given year, that would be a pretty typical investment cycle.
W. Benjamin Moreland:
I would add, but we are not capital constraining that business. I mean as we see these attractive opportunities which we're continuing to pursue, it is continuing to grow and we'll pursue them as they come in and that's we think fundamental to what we're doing and makes a lot of sense.
Kevin Smithen:
As that business goes from sort of a negative total free cash flow to positive, I mean is there a chance that you can increase the payout ratio looking out two or three years?
W. Benjamin Moreland:
It's certainly contributing to AFFO growth and that's in our outlook, but as I mentioned in my notes, we're certainly ahead of plan over sort of a five-year period and I'm not going to forecast for you where we'll be in three years in the small cell business but it's certainly contributing to our growth over time and we expect that to continue. And look, if we're putting capital to work at high initial yields in the geographies that we're currently working where we have very high expectation that other carriers will co-locate on those systems over time, then it will be accretive to growth and certainly will contribute to the dividend over time, and that's our working assumption.
Kevin Smithen:
Can you give a little more granularity on CapEx trends by carrier? Verizon came in a little higher than they previously guided to on 2015 CapEx today, we have yet to hear from Sprint or T-Mo, but I think AT&T caused a lot of concern in the industry but how much of that is really just AT&T specifically and how much are you seeing in industry-wide slowdown?
W. Benjamin Moreland:
Kevin, I'm not going to get into specifically speaking for the four carriers, but I will say that we have reaffirmed our guidance today to add about $100 million on the core tower business as we did in 2014. We see a very robust pipeline of activity. As we sit here three weeks into the year, we are looking at a very nice pipeline that gives us confidence to re-confirm you that number, and that's made up of all four carriers doing various things on their network, everything from brand new installations and new cell sites to significant augmentations and [justifications] [ph], and that's occurring really in varying levels across all the carriers. The one thing I would say about AT&T is, there's been a lot of press about that and in any given year carriers increase and decrease their activity for a number of reasons and that's been the case forever, and it doesn't happen on a straight line and over time we believe and it's certainly borne out in history that the carriers need to continue to invest in the network quality to support what we're all using as consumers, and that we are the most efficient way for them to do that. I mean the shared infrastructure model is alive and well, it's very compelling for them to utilize our facilities versus try to build their own, that's how our industry really has been founded and that is continuing today. So we have a high level of confidence that you're going to continue to see that occur and the ebbs and flows in any particular carrier's budget year-to-year, we don't get really too worked up about, and I think the last thing I'll say to that is, while there's I guess some consternation about the high value that the spectrum auction is attracting, from our perspective it just sort of solidifies the long-term view of the value of these networks and the value that the carriers are obviously placing on delivering more broadband capability to all of us as consumers and the spectrum has to be matched with infrastructure in order to utilize and we stand ready to help.
Operator:
We'll take our next question from Amir Rozwadowski from Barclays.
Amir Rozwadowski:
Just tailing off on some of the prior questions on small cell, it seems as though you folks are seeing much more constructive trends from not just Verizon but other carriers in the marketplace. I was wondering if you could give a little bit of color in terms of the competitive landscape. You folks have obviously made a diligent effort to invest in this market ahead of some of this growth that we've seen. Do you anticipate sort of shifts in the competitive landscape or do you feel comfortable in terms of your positioning where this can be sort of a leading driver for you folks and perhaps sort of increasing your share going forward?
W. Benjamin Moreland:
Amir, what I'd say is it's a big world out there with a lot of geographies that the carriers are either currently or I believe in the future will identify that they need to employ small cell architecture to add capacity, and we are only scratching the surface and we are going about as fast as we can possibly go to tell you the truth. From our guys listening on the call, they would agree. We're going to continue to ramp that capability, but I would tell you it's a competitive market and we expect we will continue to have competitors and probably more competitors over time, but the geographic footprint that we secure and build has the same dynamics and sort of natural barriers to entry as a tower. Once you've got the embedded capital there, it's very efficient to add that second or third tenant over time. And so the model we think is very analogous to what we see on the tower side and we are seeing more carriers in varying levels of interest and budget capacities become increasingly interested in what we have to offer and I don't have a huge announcement for you today on the number of new activities we have with other carriers. As we said in our comments, the overwhelming majority of what we're seeing right now is with Verizon. In geographies that if I were to share everybody on the call, maps of where they're going, I think we'd have almost unanimous agreement that these locations make sense in terms of adding capacity in urban areas and a very high likelihood that the other carriers will come on those systems for the very same reason that Verizon has identified it initially. So we're very comfortable with where we are, it is a competitive environment, but a lot of it comes down to execution, it is a more challenging undertaking than just leasing a tower and we have the capability and we've frankly invested in the capability and the people to get us there.
Amir Rozwadowski:
And then with that, if we are looking at, sort of you mentioned your sort of increasing budget or allocation of budget, given sort of the thought process around CapEx budget, is it coming from macro cell investments and being relocated to the small cell site or are you seeing this as sort of incremental dollars relative to your sort of macro site investments that you were seeding?
W. Benjamin Moreland:
We're seeing it completely incremental. I mean as I mentioned Verizon being the majority of our first tenant adds in the new systems that we're building, I wouldn't begin to suggest we've seen any slowdown from Verizon on macro sites. In fact they've been very, very active. So I think it's incremental, it's adding capacity in these networks that are going to be needed for everything we are all doing on the systems today and more in the future, and it's just a different way and an efficient way where a macro cell site really won't suffice or is not available to add that capacity.
Amir Rozwadowski:
Great. Thank you very much for that color.
Operator:
We'll take our next question from Colby Synesael with Cowen and Company.
Colby Synesael:
You mentioned $5 million of AFFO coming from the M&A you did in the fourth quarter. Is that a fully burdened number, so assuming some form of debt financing associated with the M&A which you did, arguably interest being interest expense tied to that, is that $5 million net of that number? And then the second question, I was wondering if you could just give us an update on what your expectations are for CapEx for 2015?
Jay A. Brown:
On the first question, Colby, it is a burdened number. We drew under the revolver to pay for the assets. So there's about $7 million to $8 million of interest expense associated with the acquisition. So that $5 million of AFFO was after that. On your second question, we've sized CapEx assuming that we're going to spend about 25% of AFFO on CapEx in calendar year 2015. Obviously we do have some benefit of the prepaid rent, when the carriers go on sites and deliver to us prepaid rent which covers a portion, a large portion of the CapEx that we spend to improve the site in order to hold the next tenant. So there's a bit of an offset that we get there from a cash standpoint, but broadly in terms of CapEx, net CapEx to us or net cash out the door, we're sizing that right at about 25% of our AFFO for 2015.
Colby Synesael:
And does that then, so M&A would be outside of that number there?
Jay A. Brown:
M&A would be outside of that number.
Operator:
We'll take our next question from Mike McCormack with Jefferies.
Mike McCormack:
Maybe, Jay, just a comment on the AT&T and T-Mobile tower outsized rental growth and just trying to get a sense for what your view is the longevity of that outsized growth versus the traditional core? And then secondly thinking about carrier health, we've got one of your and your peer's biggest customers that burns a tremendous amount of cash, just trying to get a sense for how you guys sort of risk adjust that. I know you've got protections in place to some degree. I'm just wondering how you think about them.
Jay A. Brown:
On your first question, Mike, the AT&T and T-Mobile portfolios have done very well since we acquired them. You could see from my comments, if you look at the leasing on a percentage basis, about 50% higher than the legacy assets. So those assets have done exactly what we expected in terms of enhancing our growth rates and we've been pleased with how they've performed out of the gate. Our underwriting assumptions as we looked at the assets was we believe that we are entering a cycle both in terms of spectrum auctions as well as the activity from the carriers and technology migrations, et cetera, they were going to be focused on deploying a lot of new cell sites and increasing cell site density. So it's certainly our expectation in 2015 that will continue, and frankly as we think about a longer period of time, I think it's very likely that those two assets and their revenue growth will outpace that of our legacy towers. As we talked about it on a percentage basis, obviously the benefit there on a percentage basis as they are coming off of a much lower base, so when you get down to nominal dollars per tower, the differences would be smaller but on a percentage basis those assets that we acquired with low amounts of revenue and cash flow have a meaningful impact to our expected growth rate.
W. Benjamin Moreland:
Mike, on your other question, just thinking about the competitive landscape of the four carriers, I guess I keep going back to what's been true really since the last 15 years, is that every time we look at our carrier landscape, there's always somebody on the outside looking to get in. And then on this call I think there was a question about FirstNet which has certainly a stated need to launch a national public safety network and it's yet to be determined how that's going to occur.
Mike McCormack:
[Indiscernible]
W. Benjamin Moreland:
We've talked about it, you've got a rumor out this morning and an article in a journal on the Google MVNO. I think all of that speaks to, and then DISH with their spectrum and unclear yet exactly how that's ultimately going to get launched so they can get a wireless product, but ultimately there's a consumer demand of over 300 million people with multiple devices continuing to load these networks. The note I mentioned earlier was smartphone utilization has basically in terms of capacity doubled in the last year, that's just incredible. And so what's happening is the networks, and regardless almost of who owns the networks, are becoming more and more utilized and that takes capital and there's other sources of outside capital that stand out there potentially ready to invest to get a share of that access to the wireless consumer, Google being the most recent description of that. So over time, we're very comfortable that the business that we're in, which is providing shared infrastructure in a very efficient way, more efficient than owning these assets on their balance sheet, is the way to go and the competitive landscape will sort itself out over time, but my perspective is the pie is only growing and attracting additional capital and that's good for us.
Operator:
We'll take our next question from Michael Bowen with Pacific Crest.
Michael Bowen:
I want to go back to some comments you made a little bit earlier on the call about in a potential Title II world I think you paraphrased, sounded like you did not think that that was going to be that impactful. However, the CFO of Verizon today was saying that while Title II, if that were enacted would not impact their 2015 CapEx, it definitely would have negative ramifications on 2016. So I'm assuming that they're also including in that wireless assets, the potential will be classified under Title II. So can you help us think through that or do you know something that we don't know that you do not perhaps do not think that wireless will come under any type of Title II regulation?
W. Benjamin Moreland:
Michael, I've actually spoken with all four carriers about this and there are varying levels of views about the potential outcome on this and what it means for capital spending and their long-term plans for network and investment and economics around that. So I'm really not going to get into speaking for them on this. There are a variety of views, it's highly charged as you can imagine as you see comments out there, and from our perspective the business that we're in is pretty agnostic. There will be ultimately demand on these networks. Certainly they're talking about forbearance on pricing over time. We'll see where that goes. We don't spend a whole lot of time worrying about it and obviously that's something the carriers have varying lobbying efforts underway on that, and we do pay attention to it but don't find that it directly affects our business at this point.
Michael Bowen:
Have you handicapped – and that's fair obviously but have you handicapped any downside or upside versus kind of status quo if it goes either way as far as a revenue impact?
W. Benjamin Moreland:
No, I haven't. I mean I could go back and we could talk about the spectrum auctions but that spectrum is going to get, put in the hands of carriers, they're going to utilize it, and that will, I think that creates a runway that's we think far in excess of probably any potential negative that could come out of potentially Title II regulation on net neutrality. I mean there's a long way to go on that discussion, but to the extent the spectrum auction clears at these prices which it certainly looks like it's going to, that spectrum is going to get launched and it takes infrastructure to launch that spectrum and that's about as far as we have to think through that right now.
Jay A. Brown:
One of the things that I would just highlight for you, and we've talked about it a lot as we talk to investors, it's how we think about the business, when we talk about total long-term returns to shareholders of about 10% to 11%, about 70% of that today or two-thirds of it roughly is either in the form of a current dividend or embedded in our contracted escalators. So the one-third of the balance of the return that we're certainly chasing and working hard at and we've obviously laid out our forecast for the next 12 months and talked a lot about leasing, but as we get into questions like this around what could the downside be, what could the upside be, we're talking about one-third of the total return, and so if you wanted to take a haircut to it you're welcome to do that but it's relatively muted on an overall total returns to the shareholders, and I think that's in part why we made the decision last quarter to meaningfully increase the dividend and we think the story is pretty compelling in virtually any kind of environment.
Michael Bowen:
And then just one last thing, with regard to the potential reseller agreement between, or contemplated agreement between Google, T-Mo and Sprint, can you see any scenario where that would be negative for the towers, I mean just the industry itself, I mean I don't really see it being negative but I would appreciate your thoughts?
W. Benjamin Moreland:
I can see no scenario where it would be negative. MVNOs, we've had them for a long time in the industry, they add capacity to a network and utilization and that ultimately takes additional sites, and to the extent that came with additional revenue stream or capital infusion in the host carrier, that would obviously be helpful for their continued investment in the network. So I can see no negative downside from that and it frankly just reinforces what we were saying earlier that there seems to be always people on the outside looking to get access to wireless subscribers, and that's good for us fundamentally.
Michael Bowen:
All right, thanks. Good to know you didn't have any Google revenue in your outlook.
Operator:
We'll take our next question from Spencer Kurn with New Street Research.
Spencer Kurn:
Just want to follow up on a comment that Ben made earlier. I completely agree that you look really attractive relative to the RMZ index or other dividend and yield oriented stocks. Are there any indices that you think you can eventually be included in? I think one of the hesitations for investors would be going out of benchmark. So inclusion in an index could be a positive catalyst for your equity.
Jay A. Brown:
I'll take that. We obviously think that the business, as we've talked about for a long period of time, we're a real estate business and our hope would be that over time the various indexes that look at real estate will treat us and include us like they do other traditional real estate products. So I don't necessarily have any update to that other than we continue to have conversations and we hope that over time the tower industry is embraced as another very stable form of real estate and think there are lots of characteristics of our business that would support that.
W. Benjamin Moreland:
And that's happened over time. About 50% of the market cap of REITs today are what you would consider non-traditional REITs and most of them have made it into the indices over time, and so we'll see how that goes over time. I think from our perspective there is a much broader – while we're very pleased to participate and be evaluated against the real estate companies, I think that's a relevant benchmark. There's a much broader universe out there of income investors that I think are attracted to our Company and our story based on the predictable long-term returns that we've talked about. As Jay mentioned, two-thirds of our total return expectation is on the books when we show up in the morning. That's a very unique scenario. You don't find that very often. We spend all day long working on that last third and that's what we're pursuing every day, but it's pretty compelling in the sort of low-return and volatile environment we area today where you've got a 4% dividend yield and upwards of 4% contracted in terms of cash flow growth, and we like that model and it's why we've done what we've done to put us in that position, and we think over time it attracts the lowest cost of capital which enables us to frankly continue to pursue this business model which at its core is all about sharing, and I think it's important to go back through just real quickly, when we talk about return on invested capital that comes from sharing these assets and as we talked about on this call our legacy sites with 15% return on invested capital, typically those towers have three tenants per tower, so they are all paying about 5% a year to occupy the asset and that's fundamental to this business and why it's compelling for the carriers to utilize this, why it's been compelling for them to sell and lease back the sites to us and we think a very efficient model really for the long-term and why we're so bullish.
Operator:
We'll take our next question from Batya Levi with UBS.
Batya Levi:
A couple of follow-ups. One, can you provide the split on the new leases and amendments that you're seeing, I think it was about 75-25 in the last quarter, and how you expect that to trend into '15? And another question on the small cell business, of the 50 million incremental growth that you expect for this year, can you give us a sense on what percent is on the recurring long-term contracts versus maybe one-time projects that you have planned?
Jay A. Brown:
On your first question, similar to what we saw in 2014, we're expecting new leases to make up approximately 70% of that activity and 30% to the amendments. So if you looked at fourth quarter [indiscernible] outlook, it would be in that 70-30 mix. If I understand your question correctly on the 50 million of incremental, all of that is long term, all of that is long-term contracted revenue. So as we speak about that, we're talking about site rental revenue and the contracts that we signed for small cells are very similar to that of the tower sites. So they are generally speaking 10 to 15 years of initial terms with embedded escalations. There is some component of services in small cells but it's really pretty small. So as we think about that number, we're talking about the long term recurring numbers that flow through AFFO.
Operator:
We'll take our next question from Jonathan Schildkraut with Evercore ISI.
Jonathan Schildkraut:
Thanks for fitting me in here. Two questions, if I may. First, I noticed that there was a small change in expected churn for the year. I think you took it down by 10 bps. Is that just a rounding error or is there something, a push-out or some conversations around churn that are a little different than they were maybe a quarter ago when you put out initial guidance? And then my second question just has to do with the organic site rental revenue growth by portfolio. As I look at the legacy U.S. assets, the T-Mobile assets that you've laid out here, I was under the impression that T-Mobile assets had maybe 50%, maybe a little bit higher than that tenancy versus sort of the legacy assets, and so in terms of sort of incremental tenancy across those two bases, 4% on the legacy would imply slightly higher incremental tenancy versus the T-Mobile assets, I'm just wondering if there are some other factors I should be considering when I look at that?
Jay A. Brown:
Yes, Jonathan, the list to dial in this morning was long, so quite happy to take the question. On your first question around churn, if you look at both the escalator provision, the amount from escalations on a percentage basis as well as the churn, those ticked down I think just like 10 basis points and that's because the organic site rental leasing in the fourth quarter was higher than expected, so it's coming off than a higher base which causes the percent to be lower, but on nominal dollars our assumption is unchanged. So that's just the way the percentages fall. On your second question, the T-Mobile assets had about 1.7 tenants on them at acquisition and the legacy towers at the time we did the transaction would've been in the high 2s or two 3s. So there's a lot higher leasing existing on the legacy assets than there were on the T-Mobile assets. And so as we're adding additional tenants, obviously the percentage growth is going to be higher on those T-Mobile assets, and we're finding a similar thing on the AT&T assets. So there's nothing, I think you're looking for something maybe in the numbers there that may be a little different and it's not, it's just coming off of a lower base. And then to Batya's question around leasing components, we are seeing about 70% of the activity being driven by new leases and the result of that is that the AT&T and T-Mobile portfolios do very well and that drives the higher percent growth rate.
Jonathan Schildkraut:
Great. So the incremental tenancy sort of across the basis in terms of demand and everything is looking pretty consistent?
Jay A. Brown:
Very consistent.
Jonathan Schildkraut:
All right. Thank you for taking the questions.
Operator:
We have time for one more question. We'll take our final question from Ana Goshko with Bank of America.
Ana Goshko:
So quickly, two related questions just on what the [indiscernible] is for the revolver upsize, and also with regards to a discretionary spending potentially in acquisition, so as you pointed out in the fourth quarter because of the land purchases largely, you had to draw on revolver just on the discretionary spending and the dividend, and if we look at the AFFO for this coming year, it's really earmarked for the dividend and for the CapEx projects, so wondering does the 600 million upsizing revolver kind of implied that you are likely going to draw on it over the course of the year to continue to fund acquisitions?
Jay A. Brown:
I would say, we've used over time, we've used the revolver as a bridge of sorts if there are acquisitions that we tuck in. So we think it's just good corporate governance and good financial discipline to have it there because it's an opportunity when there's the right asset available for us to use that revolver to draw down and buy assets. So you may see us do that over time but everything that we do in terms of if you think about small cells or tuck-in acquisitions for towers or ground leases, all of those have to go through the filter of us believing that they are enhancing to the growth rate and to the dividend over time, and if it doesn't meet that criteria then obviously we're not interested in doing acquisition. So to the extent that there are opportunities and acquisitions that are out there, that revolver becomes helpful in the process of us going through that, but I wouldn't necessarily point you to assume that we're going to draw into that revolver or even use it. As we sit here today, there aren't any acquisitions that I would expect us to be funding in the coming quarters. So it's opportunistic and it's based upon the returns. Otherwise what we see in front of us as opportunities that we're likely to invest in is really limited to about 25% of AFFO, as I spoke to earlier in the call.
W. Benjamin Moreland:
And to the extent in size you would pay it, you would term it out over time would be our practice typically.
Ana Goshko:
Right. And then because you do run with a pretty lean cash balance, I mean do you target a minimum availability under the revolver?
Jay A. Brown:
Yes, we did think about it that way and typically we won't let it get below about $250 million to $350 million at any given time. Obviously today we have about $1.4 billion of capacity, so we're well above that. Given the nature of the business though, everybody pays rent as of the first of the month and that's the driver of all of the cash flow. So we don't have some of the working capital challenges that a lot of businesses have.
Ana Goshko:
Okay, great. Thanks for the clarification.
W. Benjamin Moreland:
I think we got to wrap up. I appreciate everybody staying with us an hour and 15 minutes this morning. We had a long list of questions. Again, I want to express my appreciation to the team at Crown Castle for a terrific 2014. We got a lot accomplished more than one thing at a time, is what we talk about now, we can do more than one thing at a time very well, and we have a terrific outlook for '15. So we're going to get to work and I appreciate everybody's interest and we'll talk to you next quarter.
Operator:
And this does conclude today's conference call. Thank you all for your participation. You may now disconnect.
Executives:
Son Nguyen - Vice President of Corporate Finance W. Benjamin Moreland - Chief Executive Officer, President and Director Jay A. Brown - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President and Treasurer
Analysts:
Kevin R. Smithen - Macquarie Research David W. Barden - BofA Merrill Lynch, Research Division Richard H. Prentiss - Raymond James & Associates, Inc., Research Division Brett Feldman - Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Research Division Colby Synesael - Cowen and Company, LLC, Research Division Philip Cusick - JP Morgan Chase & Co, Research Division Amir Rozwadowski - Barclays Capital, Research Division Timothy K. Horan - Oppenheimer & Co. Inc., Research Division Batya Levi - UBS Investment Bank, Research Division Michael G. Bowen - Pacific Crest Securities, Inc., Research Division Spencer Kurn - New Street Research LLP Ana Goshko - BofA Merrill Lynch, Research Division
Operator:
Good day, and welcome to the Crown Castle International Third Quarter 2014 Earnings Call. Today's conference is being recorded. At this time, I'd like to turn the call over to Mr. Son Nguyen. Please go ahead, sir.
Son Nguyen:
Thank you, Devona, and good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us today as we review our third quarter 2014 results. With me on the call this morning are Ben Moreland, Crown Castle's Chief Executive Officer; and Jay Brown, Crown Castle's Chief Financial Officer. To aid the discussion, we have posted supplemental materials in the Investors section of our website at crowncastle.com, which we will refer to throughout the call this morning. This conference call will contain forward-looking statements, which are subject to certain risks, uncertainties and assumptions, and actual results may vary materially from those expected. Information about potential factors which could affect our results is available in the press release and the risk factors section of the company's SEC filings. Our statements are made as of today, October 31, 2014, and we assume no obligation to update any forward-looking statements. And in addition, today's call includes discussions of certain non-GAAP financial measures. Tables reconciling these non-GAAP financial measures are available in the supplemental information package in the investors section of the company's website at crowncastle.com. With that, I'll turn the call over to Ben.
W. Benjamin Moreland:
Thanks, Son, and good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us. As we indicated in our earnings release last night, I am pleased to announce that we have meaningfully raised our annual dividend from $1.40 a share to $3.28 per share starting in December of this year. I want to spend a couple of minutes discussing the reasons that led to this increased payout. First, we wanted to align the shareholder return with how the fundamentals of the business actually function. We expect the recurring cash flow that our business generates will largely be distributed going forward in the current dividend. Future dividends will benefit from the growth expected to come from a combination of contracted escalators, leasing on our existing portfolios and external acquisitions that exceed the initial cost of capital and increase the dividend over time. We expect that our AFFO organic growth rate over the next 5 years to be in the range of 6% to 7%, 1/2 of which is currently contracted via escalators on our tenant lease contracts. In any given year, over 95% of our site rental revenues are typically under contract in the prior year, thus creating a certainty we enjoy around dividend capacity of the company. Second, we believe this payout highlights and differentiates the $22 billion of high quality future revenues under long-term contract, primarily with the 4 major U.S. wireless carriers and our confidence in the sustainability of these cash flows as evidenced by this unprecedented commitment to returning capital to our shareholders. Third, we have retained sufficient liquidity to achieve the embedded growth opportunities that are in front of us. As we've said on previous calls, the primary driver of incremental value for us at this point resides in the lease up potential of the portfolio we already own, most particularly, the new 17,000 towers and small cell business that we have added in recent years. Further, this organic growth opportunity does not require a lot of capital to pursue. We have sized the dividend to retain 25% of AFFO, which we believe is necessary to pursue all of our organic growth plans and sustain the business appropriately. We will continue to seek external growth through further acquisition opportunities when such acquisitions cover the cost of the new capital and allow us to increase the dividend over time. Fourth, we acknowledge that our organic growth rate in the future is likely to be lower than in the past, partly because of the law of large numbers and the headwinds associated with the carrier consolidation on nonrenewals we expect over the next 3 to 4 years. Thus, we believe a larger component of our shareholders' total return appropriately should come from the current distribution of our very high-quality contracted revenues, primarily serving the 4 national U.S. carriers and our industry-leading position on mission-critical wireless infrastructure. Essentially, the way we think about our business is like a growing annuity of contracted, bond-like recurring cash flows and shareholders will be receiving a current distribution that can be considered interest on the bond, if you will, backed by the $22 billion of contracted revenues I mentioned we have on the books, plus growth from the embedded escalators in those contracts and increased utilization of our assets as carriers continue to invest in their networks to support the secular growth we are all familiar with in wireless broadband services. The quality of this cash flow is represented by nearly 90% of our revenues coming from the 4 largest U.S. carriers. For context, these carriers have a combined market capitalization of approximately $430 billion, and annualized operating cash flows of $70 billion and a composite average cost of borrowing of about 4.5%. As a pastor entity of these cash flows supporting the mission-critical wireless infrastructure of the 4 largest U.S. carriers, we believe the composite bond yield of our tenants is an interesting benchmark for evaluating Crown Castle's total return prospects. Based on last night's closing share price, the combination of a dividend yield of approximately 4% and expected long-term organic growth in the 6% to 7% range delivers total returns of 10% to 11%. Of this expected total return, approximately 2/3 is achieved via the current dividend and the contracted escalators under our tenant leases. Fifth, it has long been my belief that an eventual high payout of the recurring cash flow from arguably what is one of the best business models, combined with expected growth in wireless, would yield a lower cost of capital over time. Further to this, we are maintaining a balance sheet profile that is consistent with our investment-grade ratings objectives. As has been our long-standing practice, we have a very active ongoing dialogue about capital allocation and how we maximize long-term value for Crown Castle's shareholders. Recently, we spoke with and received feedback from many shareholders and several investment banks. Opinions among shareholders and the investment banks were split between support for distributing a high percentage of our AFFO in the form of dividends and desire for us to maintain a lower payout and continue to retain more flexibility to purchase shares opportunistically. We believe both camps have reasoned and thoughtful positions, and we spent a considerable amount of time and analysis among ourselves and with our Board considering the appropriate approach for our business. As managers of the business, we find the perspectives of our owners on matters such as capital allocation incredibly advantageous. We don't believe we have a monopoly on good ideas, and therefore, we welcome the conversation. For those of our shareholders who would've preferred that we not raise the dividend so significantly in the short term, we appreciate the effort and feedback that you provided and would hope that you would consider the rationale that we have articulated and why we believe that a greatly increased payout is the best approach. Turning to our results. I want to reflect for a moment on the year we're having as we head for the finish of 2014. We have increased our 2014 outlook for AFFO to $4.20 a share, representing 14% growth compared to 2013. This growth has been achieved roughly from equal contributions from growth in our network services business and our growth in organic site rental margins. I am very pleased with our results. They've been accomplished even in the face of the initial headwind from the impact of the Sprint decommissioning of its iDEN network that impacted 200 basis points of AFFO growth in 2014. We have provided 2015 outlook today that includes AFFO per share growth of 4% for the full year. As previously disclosed, impacting our growth outlook is approximately $65 million of nonrenewals from the final year of the Sprint iDEN decommissioning, as well as approximately $40 million from network rationalization of Metro PCS, Leap and Clearwire legacy networks. Clearly, this is a meaningful headwind, but we were pleased to be able to forecast continued gross leasing activity that is driving double-digit organic growth before the impact of these network rationalizations. Unfortunately, based on our most recent conversations with T-Mobile, Sprint and AT&T, we expect that the rationalization of Metro PCS, Clearwire and Leap networks will continue to be a headwind to our organic growth beyond 2015. Thus, with this AFFO headwind beyond 2015, we would expect it to impact our long-term outlook, resulting in organic growth expectations of 6% to 7% annually over the next 5 years. We will keep you updated quarterly as we receive more details on the network rationalization plans. Our growth expectations are driven by long-term industry fundamentals, and 2014 is proving to be a year of continued healthy gross leasing activity. Looking ahead to 2015, we expect leasing activity from new tenant installations and amendments to existing leases to remain robust and similar to our expectations for 2014, as all 4 major wireless carriers continue to upgrade their networks to meet consumer demand. Towards that end, we have deliberately focused our energy and capital in the U.S. as we believe the U.S. market offers the most compelling risk-adjusted returns where carriers have the most apparent economic incentive to invest in the world. As you can see on Slide 6, the U.S. market is uniquely attractive due to its relative size and robustness compared to other markets. Further, U.S. carriers are able to generate incremental returns on their capital investment on a scale significantly larger than other geographies. This can be seen by the approximately $600 in average annual revenues per subscribers that carriers earned, compared to approximately $100 in annual investment per subscriber. This relatively high ARPU is supported by the staggering growth in mobile data consumption by U.S. subscribers. As confirmation of the need to continue to invest in order to improve network quality and increase capacity and add functionality, U.S. carriers are projected to invest billions of dollars in the upcoming AWS and broadcast spectrum auctions. These spectrum auctions, in addition to spectrum that currently resides with wireless carriers that has not yet been deployed, require wireless infrastructure to be deployed and, thus, provide a long runway of future demand. Recent comments from wireless carriers, who seek to continue to differentiate themselves based on network quality, reinforce our belief in the long-term growth prospects of our business. The reality is that there are really no limits to the opportunity wireless broadband holds for how we live our lives and benefit from connectivity never before imagined. In the 1999 and 2000 era, we purchased our initial portfolio of sites from carriers on an unproven co-location thesis with an initial yield of around 4%. As you can see on Slide 7, today those sites have a yield of over 15%. Today, we are fielding familiar questions about the near-term results of our 2 large carrier tower acquisitions in 2013 and 2014 from T-Mobile and AT&T, which have initial yields of around 5% on these 17,000 towers. It's early, but we are very pleased with the early results that we've seen. We are experiencing lease-up that we expected, and are driving yields on these portfolios up as we had anticipated. Jay will take you through some additional details on the growth of our recent acquisitions, which are tracking with our underwriting models at the time of acquisition. As the U.S. market leader, with nearly 40,000 towers and a very active and growing small cell opportunity, currently at 14,000 nodes, we are well positioned to benefit from these growing macro trends. We believe the long-term prospects of the business have never been stronger, with 4 national U.S. carriers actively investing for growth in their business. We have a long track record of creating value for shareholders, and with the high-quality assets that we have assembled, we believe we are poised to continue this record. We maintain a long-term focus on the decisions we make and welcome the opportunity to differentiate our company with our significant commitment to return capital to shareholders, while retaining all growth opportunities that are inherent in our long-term business plan and providing share wireless infrastructure to the wireless industry. And with that, I'd be pleased to turn the call over to Jay for some more comments.
Jay A. Brown:
Thanks, Ben, good morning, everyone. Turning to the financial results, we had a terrific third quarter, exceeding the high end of our previously issued outlook for site rental revenue, adjusted EBITDA and AFFO. The robust leasing activity continued during the quarter, and we look forward to closing out the year strong. The results achieved during the third quarter allow us to once again increase our outlook for full year 2014. Turning to Slide 8. In the third quarter, site rental revenue grew 21% year-over-year from $621 million to $752 million. Organic site rental revenue grew approximately 7% compared to the same period in 2013. The approximately 7% organic site rental revenue growth is comprised of approximately 4% growth from cash escalation in our tenant lease contracts, approximately 6% growth from new leasing activity, net of approximately 3% from nonrenewals. On Slide 9, I want to spend a minute to break down the composition of year-over-year growth and organic site rental revenue, and the leasing activity among our various asset portfolios we have owned for at least 1 year. Our legacy U.S. assets, excluding the T-Mobile and AT&T portfolios, generated year-over-year organic site rental revenue growth of approximately 5%, inclusive of the nonrenewal headwinds. The 5% on our legacy assets compares to approximately 7% for the T-Mobile portfolio. Given the lower tenancy, a significant portion of this growth is driven by new tenant installations. We completed the integration of the T-Mobile assets about a year ago, and the assets continue to perform in line with our underwriting acquisition model. We've substantially completed the integration of the AT&T assets during this past quarter, and we are encouraged by the leasing activity we are seeing on that portfolio. The AT&T portfolio's performance is comparable to the T-Mobile assets at this stage, and is consistent with our underwriting acquisition model, which assumes one tenant added over 10 years similar to our assumption on the T-Mobile assets. While it is still early days on both the T-Mobile and the AT&T assets, we are confident in our thesis that we can create value by leasing these assets over time. On the small cell front, we continue to see strong adoption and growth. Site rental revenue growth from our small cell networks is up approximately 30% year-over-year, contributing approximately 7% to consolidated site rental revenues. At the end of the third quarter, we had over 6,000 miles of fiber, serving over 14,000 small cell nodes on air under construction, with 21,000 tenants residing on these nodes. Currently, we have over 3 tenant leases per mile of fiber we own or approximately 1.5 tenants per node. In total, these nodes are generating approximately a 7% yield on the total invested capital we have deployed to build or acquire fiber for our small cell networks. The vast majority of the current small cell activity is being driven by Verizon. However, we believe the other carriers will follow over time, adding small cell nodes across our fiber assets, driving our expectations for returns on the investments we're making. We continue to make investments in fiber to deploy small cell because we believe the investment will deliver attractive returns and increase our long-term dividend capacity. On a unit economic basis, we are generally seeing initial yields from the fiber we deploy for small cells of approximately 6% to 8% on the -- with the anchor tenant. Similar to towers, we see yields on our fiber assets being driven up into the low to mid-teens from additional lease-up and amendment. Returning to Q3 financial results on Slide 10, adjusted EBITDA for the third quarter increased 21% from the same quarter in 2013. This growth is attributable to the increase in site rental gross margin inclusive of the AT&T towers and strong performance from network services. AFFO for the third quarter was $350 million compared to $271 million for the same period a year ago, an increase of 29%. On a per share basis, AFFO was up 13%, increasing from $0.93 per share to $1.05 per share. Turning to investments and financing activities as shown on Slide 11. During the third quarter, we invested $204 million in capital expenditures. These capital expenditures included $17 million on our land purchase program. We are on pace to complete nearly 2,200 land transactions during 2014, of which approximately 25% are purchases but the remainder being lease extensions. Our proactive approach to achieving long-term control of the ground beneath our sites is core to our business, as we look to control our largest operating expense and produce stable and growing cash flow over time. Having completed more than 16,000 land transactions, we believe we have the most secure portfolio of ground interest in the industry. Today, approximately 1/3 of our site rental gross margin is generated from towers on land we own, and approximately 70% on land we own or lease for more than 20 years. Where we have ground leases, the average term remaining on our ground leases is approximately 30 years. We have provided more detailed information regarding the ground interest beneath our towers in our quarterly supplement. Of the remaining capital expenditures, we invested $167 million in revenue generating capital expenditures, consisting of $99 million on existing sites and $68 million on the construction of new sites, primarily small cell construction activity. We also spent approximately $20 million on sustaining CapEx, which was below our third quarter 2014 outlook. However, we've not adjusted our full year outlook for sustaining capital expenditures as we expect to perform the same sustaining CapEx activities within '14, completing this work during the fourth quarter of this year. During the quarter, we also invested approximately $90 million in acquisitions primarily related to the acquisitions of ground interest underneath towers. Further, during the quarter, we paid a quarterly stock dividend of $0.35 per share or $117 million in aggregate. As of September 30, our total net debt to last quarter annualized adjusted EBITDA is 5.3x. Our weighted average cost of debt stands at 4.2% with a weighted average maturity of 6 years. As Ben mentioned, our decision to increase the dividend has further reinforced our views regarding maintaining appropriate leverage on the balance sheet. We remain committed to staying on a path to an investment-grade credit rating and maintaining a target level of leverage of -- range of 4x to 6x. Moving on to the 2014 outlook on Slide 12. We have increased full year 2014 outlook for site rental revenue, site rental gross margin, adjusted EBITDA and AFFO. The increase in the outlook is primarily driven by third quarter results, an extension of the tenant leases with one of our major wireless carrier customers in Australia during the fourth quarter and expected higher network services gross margin contribution offset by a decrease in the assumed exchange rate from our previous outlook. For 2015, as shown on Slide 13, we expect new leasing activity to be similar to 2014, offset by an elevated level of tenant nonrenewals. Moving from left to right on the slide, at the midpoint of our outlook, new leasing activity or incremental revenue from new tenant installations and amendments to existing leases is expected to be approximately $145 million during 2015 as compared to $125 million for 2014. Of the approximately $145 million in new leasing activity, expected contributions from tower leasing and small cell leasing are $100 million and $45 million, respectively. The approximately $100 million in new leasing contribution from tower leasing represents over 4,000 lease equivalents on over 40,000 towers or approximately 0.1 tenants per tower. As we've stated on numerous occasions, our long-term view of this is that we can add approximately one tenant per tower over the next 10 years, and we're right on track. This 2015 growth is offset by the expected headwind from nonrenewals. Nonrenewals for 2015 are expected to be between $110 million and $120 million. Of this $110 million to $120 million, we expect approximately $60 million to $70 million to come from Sprint's decommissioning of its iDEN network, as previously announced. In addition, we would've expected 1% to 2% impact to site rental revenues from normal nonrenewals or approximately $45 million at the midpoint. For 2015, we expect the normal nonrenewal bucket to be largely consumed by the beginning of the carrier consolidation nonrenewals, as Ben mentioned. Beyond 2015, we expect potential nonrenewals from the decommissioning of a portion of the Leap, Metro PCS and Clearwire networks to be approximately $160 million of current run rate site rental revenues. Based on our current understanding and the communication we've received from our customers, we expect the impact from these nonrenewals related to these 3 networks in 2016 to be between approximately $60 million and $70 million and approximately $100 million in 2017 and beyond. Our expectations for the potential impact from nonrenewals represent approximately 60% of the site rental revenues generated by Leap, Metro PCS and Clearwire. We do not expect any of the nonrenewals to come from our small cell networks. We have provided additional details in our quarterly supplement. Continuing with organic site rental revenue growth, escalations on the existing tenant lease contracts is expected to be approximately $90 million in 2015. New leasing, escalations and nonrenewals combine to arrive at organic site rental revenue growth of approximately 4% or $120 million. The $120 million in organic site rental revenue growth for 2015 translates to approximately $55 million in expected GAAP site rental revenue growth, after making $65 million in adjustments for straight line accounting and exchange rates and other items. The adjustment for straight line accounting removes the benefit of approximately $90 million in contracted escalators on the existing tenant leases, and adds approximately $30 million in straight line revenues related to the new leasing activity, including the tenant lease renewals that I mentioned before. Moving to Slide 14. Our 2015 outlook for site rental gross margins and adjusted EBITDA assumes an increase of approximately 6% or $60 million in cost of operations in general and administrative costs as compared to 2014. All of the increase in expenses is reflected in the run rate expenses for Q3 2014, after accounting for the typical 3% annual increase, as we have increased staffing during 2014 to accommodate an increase in small cell activity, growth in network services and the expansion in the size of the asset portfolio. Given the strong level of leasing activity and the agreements we have in place with our tenants, we see continued strength in our network services business, and expect it to replicate the operating performance of 2014. We expect 2015 AFFO to increase to 100 -- $1.45 billion. Of this $1.45 billion in AFFO, we expect to distribute approximately $1.1 billion in dividends and use the remaining portion to fund the activities that drive our organic growth. Let me summarize the year-over-year changes as it relates to AFFO. As shown on Slide 15, beginning with the net leasing of approximately $30 million after nonrenewals, plus the $90 million benefit from tenant escalations, offset by the cost increases of approximately $60 million and other adjustments of approximately $10 million, results in our year-over-year growth in AFFO of $50 million. This simple layout is a good model for AFFO growth for future years beyond 2015 for our business. As you consider 2016, for instance, based on the information we have provided for nonrenewals and assuming leasing activity remains at current levels, we would expect AFFO growth in 2016 to be approximately 6% or 200 basis points higher than that of '15. As Ben mentioned, over the next 5 years, we target AFFO growth to be 6% to 7% organically. To complete the picture, this underlying growth in our existing assets frames our expectation for future dividends per share, as we expect to increase the dividend commensurate with AFFO per share growth over time. With respect to our dividend policy, we believe the acceleration to a higher payout today appropriately balances providing shareholders with increased certainty for a significant portion of shareholder returns, without compromising our ability to deliver long-term organic growth. Since the early days of Crown Castle, our long-term capital allocation goal was to distribute a meaningful portion of our cash flows to shareholders in the form of dividends, and we are pleased to realize that goal today. With that, operator, be happy to open the call to questions.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] We'll take our first question from Kevin Smithen with Macquarie.
Kevin R. Smithen - Macquarie Research:
I understand some of the pressures on 2015 insurance and site revenue growth, but I wanted to focus on the 6% 7% long-term growth and your comments on 6% AFFO growth in 2016. You talked about the AT&T lease-ups beginning to kick in, in small cells, I guess when you add up all of that, I'm a little surprised that you're not thinking about new business picking up in 2016 and AFFO growth accelerating next year. So I wanted to know if you just walk through the puts and takes of that. Specifically, your organic growth at 4%, not picking up, and I think that the dividend growth component is a big determinant of where the yield should be, and obviously if there's a big difference between 6% and, say, 9% or 10% in a good year. So just walk us through the puts and takes of '16 and beyond on sort of, what -- you've talked about the churn, I want to talk about the organic growth opportunities in some of the lease-up on the MLAs picks up, and you have some capacity.
W. Benjamin Moreland:
Sure Kevin, this is Ben. I'll start and Jay may jump in here in a minute. As we think about 2016, Jay mentioned we could likely see a couple hundred basis points or so of improvement. I'd break that down for you. First, on the expense line, we certainly wouldn't expect to increase expenses again, scaling as we have done in 2014. So as that returns to a more normal, sort of 3% growth rate, even allowing for new systems coming on board on the small cell side, I would think we'd pick up probably 100 to 150 basis points there of improvement to AFFO. And then similarly, as we've given guidance on churn, our best estimate for 2016 at this point would be that we would see maybe 100 basis points or so less impact in 2016. So that's the nature of the 200 or so basis points of pickup in '16 over '15, pro forma. As you think longer term, it goes to really -- to revenue, and I want to talk about this real clearly for everyone. Today, at the current levels and our forecast for 2015, we're adding about $100 million of new revenue from new leasing on the tower portfolio that we have today, and as Jay indicated in his comments, that's equivalent to about 1/10 of 1 tenant on all 40,000 towers that we currently own. We're quite comfortable with that. That was sort of our underwriting model, and I might add, that's even continuing on some of the legacy -- many of the legacy towers we've had that are over 90,000 in revenue today per tower. So the new assets are punching above their weight on a percentage growth basis because they're coming off of a smaller base, but they are a smaller base, and it's a smaller contributor to our overall revenue than the enormous base we have on the legacy portfolio today. So in the vicinity of $100 million or so, and even if that were to increase by, let's just say, 10%, just to make up a number for you, that's $10 million, and that's not even 1% growth on AFFO. So the numbers, and as I mentioned in my comment, not -- didn't take them lightly, the law of large numbers here is definitely in play. And so while the churn and the nonrenewals we've talked about is a short- to medium-term obstacle that we will get over. The law of large numbers, where we're adding, call it, $100 million to $150 million of AFFO a year going forward on a similar asset base, obviously, that's a diminishing growth rate every year, and that's something to be appreciated and went into our thinking around how we structured the dividend and how we think about the long-term growth expectations. Now clearly -- add 2 other points to that. As the churn continues to lessen in outer years, as we roll through this consolidation churn, you would expect, then, to have more contribution to AFFO growth, even on this $100 million or so on the tower side and maybe $40 million to $50 million on the small cell side. And I would mention again, we're getting very attractive initial yield from that investment in the small cells, and significant co-location occurring across those nodes today, as Jay mentioned. So if you just assume that continues, that's how you get to sort of the 6% to 7% over 5 years. You certainly can appreciate, if you start off at 4% and the second year might be 6%, and we're suggesting to everybody that over 5 years it's sort of 6% to 7%, obviously, the back half of those years has to be better, and that's our expectation. But I do think it's important to ground everybody in the -- in sort of the law of large numbers around the organic growth opportunity or capability of the business. It shouldn't be lost on anyone that the guidance we've given today of 4% AFFO growth, which is inclusive of this outsized investment we've made in resources to accommodate the opportunity we see, about 100 basis points of headwind there, also has 700 basis points of churn in it. So the organic engine, if you will, is in the vicinity of 11% or so, and we're very, very pleased with that, but that's subject to this law of large numbers diminishment over time. Finally, last point. No one should leave this call with any diminished view about our goal to continue to add assets through external acquisitions where it can cover the initial cost of capital, obviously, a dividend and interest expense to the extent it requires equity capital and new debt, and then would be accretive to our ability to grow the dividend over time. It'll be a very simple formula from this day forward, because it's going to be very easy to figure out what the dividend component is, and what the interest component is. And anything we would pursue certainly would need to be -- would need to cover its initial cost of capital and be accretive to that growth rate over time, or it would make no sense to do it. So we believe that there will be opportunities to continue to grow the business and compound the growth against that new capital, but for purposes of discussion on our 5-year plan, as always, we don't forecast those acquisitions until they're on the table, and that's the guidance we've given you today.
Kevin R. Smithen - Macquarie Research:
Just a quick follow-up on the churn. Is this -- your -- so on the acquired company churn in the out years, have you gotten a request already from the carriers to -- for this plan? Or is this sort of your, kind of worst-case scenario exposure, aggregate exposure for those acquired companies?
W. Benjamin Moreland:
No, Kevin. This is based on very real-time significant conversations we've had with all 3 of those parent companies around their decommissioning plans over time and as it would impact our business. I think in the disclosure, we indicated that about $260 million of revenue resides on our tower sites today, another 90 or so on the small cells. Small cells are unaffected. So it's upwards of close to 80% of our revenue on the tower side that we expect to be rationalized over time, and that's coming directly from conversations we've had, more than one, with ongoing conversations we've had over this last quarter and subsequent to the quarter where we feel like, in good faith, we had an obligation to sort of bring those forward and -- as real-time information and put that in our forward outlook. That could change. Sometimes it does change, but these are serious conversations, and the carriers have actually spoken publicly on numerous occasions about their opportunity to realize synergies around these networks, and you're seeing that here reflected in these numbers.
Operator:
And we'll go next to David Barden with Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
David W. Barden - BofA Merrill Lynch, Research Division:
I guess I have related questions. The first one is, Ben, you set out a kind of 5-year game plan here, it seems based on a series of kind of conversations that seem to be somewhat casual, that have happened over maybe the last several weeks or a couple of months. And it feels like this is a pretty significant reduction in the expectations for the future for a very long time, based on a few conversations. I guess the real question is, do you see downside to what you're presenting here? Or are you presenting a pretty downside case? And as the world evolves, as the world of wireless does, there could conceivably be upside here? And then the second question is -- you mentioned, obviously, we're all wondering about the Verizon deal. We were expecting that they're, if you were to come to terms with Verizon, there would have to be an equity component. With your stock down, and now the dividend cost of your stock being higher, is the hurdle rate to do a deal, any deal, now greater if the stock were to stay where it is right now? Or in your own mind, has your cost of capital not changed and you look at deals now the same way you would've looked at them yesterday?
W. Benjamin Moreland:
Sure. On the nonrenewal discussion, Dave, we don't take this casually. This is a material fact that we felt compelled to share with all of our shareholders, and we realize it is a material change in our long-term, sort of growth outlook, and it was for us too, as shareholders, I can assure you. We don't take it lightly, and these are based on -- more than conversations, these are based on significant, sort of indicated plans and planning that they have shared with us, including site-specific information, and that's the nature of the conversations we've had, and the seriousness with which we take it. I don't think it could be much worse than this, candidly, and it could be better, certainly, it could be, as carrier rationalization plans develop over time. But the point I would make on the "it could be better." I would caution everybody on that, because I would remind you that we continue to maintain a robust gross leasing outlook. So we are continuing to expect that we'll add upwards of $100 million or so across the tower footprint every year, which is a robust leasing environment that would encompass, certainly, these 3 parent companies continuing to invest aggressively in their networks going forward, post rationalization, or while they're rationalizing the legacy acquired networks. So I'd say the -- on the -- the ad [ph] side of that, on the gross side, we've got a very robust expectation for leasing that we're going to work very hard to accommodate and accomplish. On the Verizon tower transaction prospectively, I don't have anything specific to announce about that. Obviously, Verizon would speak for themselves about their desire to divest their towers, should that occur. As we would think about a need to raise equity going forward on an acquisition in general, we would, as I mentioned in my notes, we would look at any opportunity out there and view it as, certainly the need to cover its initial dividend and interest expense, and then certainly, have a very significant and disciplined expectation, that it adds to our ability to grow the dividend over time, or there's really no reason to pursue it, because we understand that the valuation of the firm going forward will be very much around the current dividend yield that the market will shake out and the expectation for future growth. We've given you a view today that the organic ability of the company is in the vicinity of 6% to 7% over the next 5 years. I would be quick to add that about 1/2 of that growth is already on the books today, in the form of the contracted escalators we have across our company today. So approximately 2/3 of the total return profile that we're suggesting to people is available on the existing asset portfolio today that we own. Approximately 2/3 of that total return profile is already on the books, and I think that's pretty compelling. And we have every opportunity to continue our legacy of growing assets and creating additional value, and we'll continue to pursue it that way.
David W. Barden - BofA Merrill Lynch, Research Division:
If I could just ask one quick follow-up, which is, when you talk about the incremental $100 million of leasing revenue growth, you gave us kind of a -- that's kind of a macro picture. Is the -- can you talk about the small cell site outlet that you're baking into this 6% to 7% growth rate?
W. Benjamin Moreland:
Sure. That would suggest a continued level of growth in and about the $140 million to $150 million total, so an incremental $40 million to $50 million on the small cell side as well. That's a mixture of co-locations on existing systems, as well as investment at about this current level that we're seeing today with the retained AFFO, as Jay mentioned in his discussion, around our logic on what we are, in fact, retaining, where we're able to continue to invest in the small cell side, which are coming at attractive initial yields and provide great promise around total returns from co-location over time. So that suggests that, that would stay at about the current level.
Operator:
And we'll go next to Ric Prentiss with Raymond James.
Richard H. Prentiss - Raymond James & Associates, Inc., Research Division:
One easy question, I think, and on to the harder question. Give you the easy one first. The -- with the dividend thought process, how did the NOLs fit into it? What happens to the value? Did you see value in the NOLs and what happens to it? That's the easy one.
W. Benjamin Moreland:
The NOLs continue to have value for the company, and there's -- the remaining to be, I think maybe just shy of $2 billion by the end of this year, Jay, is that kind of where we think? We're burning them now, obviously, with the federal income tax net income, so just shy of $2 billion. When you work out, Ric, that math over the next sort of 5 years, it's not a huge driver of value for the firm, but it is interesting optionality that we will retain now, by not essentially consuming very much of those NOLs going forward. And so we will continue to have that. It provides some flexibility for us on potentially an asset sale one day, where we would shelter a gain, but it's not a significant driver to the overall value of the stock, and it was one that we were willing to sort of move to the back burner in terms of order of priority, based on what we thought was the appropriate need or desire to have shareholders participate in this recurring and growing cash flow stream as we've outlined.
Richard H. Prentiss - Raymond James & Associates, Inc., Research Division:
Makes sense. We'd always held that on our model as like, if you ever sold Australia, that might be a nice asset to have around the NOLs.
W. Benjamin Moreland:
It will be in our pocket.
Richard H. Prentiss - Raymond James & Associates, Inc., Research Division:
The more difficult question is I understand the law of large numbers, I would say, you guys have done a lot of portfolio additions, but little bit back to the earlier question, if you think about when you bought the AT&T towers and the T-Mobile towers, ballpark 1.6, 1.7 tenants per tower, versus much higher tenancy at your base portfolio or your legacy portfolio. Remember here in the past that buying those carrier towers was like a big bet on co-location densification. We've seen a lot of amendment activity, heavy amendment activity lately versus co-lo. Is this update to your guidance a way of saying also that, that maybe the new co-los don't happen, or it takes a much longer period of time. So just trying to reconcile the big bet on carrier portfolios of low tenancy, betting on densification hitting co-location, and then this new kind of view. What are your thoughts on that?
W. Benjamin Moreland:
I haven't changed my view, and that's a great question. We have, as we mentioned when we acquired those portfolios, we had underwritten approximately 1 additional tenant per tower over 10 years, and we're tracking at that level. But you're right to point out that, that's based, because there's not a lot of existing tenancy, a lot of that has to be based on future co-location. We expect that'll happen. In fact, we think there's a very strong thesis in the -- that we should have ultimately based on network demands, have essentially every -- all 4 tenants on every one of our sites over time. We don't underwrite it that way. We don't put that in our guidance. That's not in the 6% to 7%, but if you think about the legacy portfolio, how do you get to $95,000 of revenue per tower on the legacy sites after 12 to 14 years of marketing them? You get there by continuing to add tenancy and subsequent amendment activity over time, well beyond maybe your initial underwriting. That sort of falls in the category of the upside will take care of itself, and so we don't put that into the model or into the discussion very often, but we don't have any diminished view of that lease-up over time. Jay, did you want to...
Jay A. Brown:
Ric, you can see in the numbers when I was talking, in my comments about how the T-Mobile portfolio and, the follow on to that is AT&T, how they've performed, adding about 0.1 tenants is right about 7%, which is right where the portfolio is performing. So as you get into the law of large numbers, obviously, on a percentage basis, that'll come down, but it's tracking right in line with what we expected. And on the T-Mobile and AT&T assets, we continue to believe that co-locations are going to be the biggest driver of that revenue growth. I think for the quarter, we were in the ballpark of about 65% of our leasing activity, were co-locations from new leases and about 35% were from amendments to existing leases.
Richard H. Prentiss - Raymond James & Associates, Inc., Research Division:
But if we were to see a significant shift in the carriers, being -- from amendment spending of their CapEx being new co-location, that could lead to the upside of your numbers back to the sent, [ph] the previous questions?
W. Benjamin Moreland:
Yes, it could, and right now -- as we've said on prior calls, the most active co-locator in the industry today, by a large margin is Verizon, and I think that's been well documented. Other carriers, the other 3, are very aggressively still building LTE capacity into their network, as well as beginning to show signs of hope, happily from our perspective, of adding new sites. We're seeing that occur in all 3 of the carriers, where they're coming back and looking at capacity infill sites, which would be new co-locations and they talked about it in public settings recently. Verizon for 2014 is the most active, but we would expect over time the other 3 to return to co-location in a very aggressive way as they're adding capacity density in these networks, which are required over time as they continue to add data services.
Jay A. Brown:
Ric, I think one other way to speak about the portfolio, and certainly it went into our thinking as we looked at the T-Mobile and the AT&T assets, was the diversity that we thought it brought to the company in addition to the growth. So the legacy assets, 24,000 assets, obviously those are heavily, more heavily weighted towards amendments to existing leases. The new assets that we bought are more heavily weighted towards a belief around co-locations of new tenants. So our experiences have been, over a long period of time, that there are ebbs and flows, where carriers allocate capital towards one activity or another, whether it's new leases or amendments, and we feel great about the portfolio that we have. And as we talk about our longer-term forecast, we might see that move one way or another, and maybe that means for some period of time, either the legacy portfolios, or the more recently acquired portfolios benefit from the whatever stage in the cycle the carriers are in, but we like the diversity that we have in the mix, so that we think we'll do well in both cycles.
Operator:
And we'll go next to Brett Feldman with Goldman Sachs.
Brett Feldman - Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Research Division:
I just want to go back to the discussion around establishing what the payout was going to be. How did you get comfortable that 75% was the right starting point? And then as you think about going forward, what do you have to believe to believe that you could pay out a higher portion of your cash? And then lastly, based on the redistribution requirements, will you reach a point where you have to?
W. Benjamin Moreland:
You want to start with that, Jay, and I'll pick up the second part?
Jay A. Brown:
Yes, the second part of that of where would we reach from an NOL standpoint, we have long believed that where we would end up is somewhere between 70% and 80%. So basically, our starting point is paying out effectively all of the taxable income. I don't believe, from an NOL standpoint, we're going to get ourselves in a place where the dividend payout would be driven based on a need to pay out a higher percentage. I think it's more likely that Ben probably wants -- may speak more to the rationality laid out in his prepared remarks. But, it's more likely we have a strategic conversation about that, rather than being driven by taxable income
W. Benjamin Moreland:
In terms of the -- where we establish the payout, Brett, we really started with the notion of, what do we need to retain to accomplish the organic growth expectations that we have on the existing assets that we currently own, and that includes the current level of spend on the very productive investment we're making in small cells. So we really started with that as an opening premise, and we didn't put ourselves in a lot of risk on requiring us to raise outside capital to accomplish those growth expectations on an organic basis. I think that's a very prudent and thoughtful approach, and the rest, 75%, will now be in the current dividend. Going forward, there's a couple of things that we can think about in the future that could impact or make us reevaluate that payout, and this is pure speculation, because we're just starting out. But as we achieve an investment grade rating, and by definition, you would have more access to capital through good markets and bad, at even less cost than we're currently paying, I think that would heighten our confidence level in reliance on the capital markets to fund some of these activities. So over time, we could consider and evaluate whether or not it made sense to raise the payout. No commitment here on my part, but that's something that would be reasonable to assume that we could evaluate, once we have more -- once we have more certainty around access to capital. We were certainly not willing to put ourselves in a position where we thought we were risking the growth opportunity, accomplishing the growth opportunity in the company by needing to access outside capital to make the assets perform. I think that would be irresponsible on our part here, Day 1. Over time, as the market becomes -- as the shareholder base becomes, I think, more accustomed and more used to underwriting the sustainability of the dividend in this wonderful business we're in, I think that will -- it'll be something that we'll continue to evaluate along with the investment-grade rating.
Operator:
And we'll go to Colby Synesael with Cowan and Company.
Colby Synesael - Cowen and Company, LLC, Research Division:
Great, two questions, if I may. First off, just as it relates to the timing of the terminations, I'm just curious if the Metro PCS, the Leaps, and Clearwire, if this is happening early, in other words, if they're going to be paying you some form of payment to end the contracts earlier than they otherwise would, similar to what we're seeing with iDEN, where I think they're paying you, call it, $12,000 a tower to do so, or if they're actually waiting for their contracts to expire and that's why we're seeing it roll off, I guess, over the next 4 years. And then my second question had to do with just your guidance specific to 2015. When I look at new leasing activity in escalators specifically, in both situations, for 2015 when compared to what your guidance currently is for 2014, you're assuming slower growth, and I'm just trying to understand what might be the reason for that.
Jay A. Brown:
That last statement, real quick, it's more growth.
Colby Synesael - Cowen and Company, LLC, Research Division:
Yes, well, just specifically, you're looking for 5.1% new leasing activity versus 5.5% in 2014, and for escalators, you're assuming escalators are 3.3% versus this year, 3.6%.
W. Benjamin Moreland:
Colby, on the second question, I would point you to Slide 13 of the presentation that we showed. We're showing that -- on a new leasing activity basis, we're assuming, in 2014, approximately $125 million of new leasing activity, and for 2015, we're assuming $145 million. So there's an actual pickup there of 15 to -- about 15% or so higher leasing activity in '15 than there is in 2014. That, obviously, on a percentage basis though, off of a larger base, is going to be a lower percentage. So if you're looking at percentages, it's going to be lower. On the escalator provision, the primary driver for that is in the legacy portfolio, as you're aware, we signed a number of MLAs that had higher escalation provision. It's how we accounted for the opportunity for these tenants to make additional amendments on the sites, and so the escalators on those would be higher than the 2 acquired portfolios. And as we roll in the AT&T portfolio into the organic year-over-year comparison, that escalator on a percentage basis, is going to come down by just a touch there. So that's the primary thing there, but I think on an activity basis, we're expecting slightly, slightly more. On the first question around the timing of terminations, we're not embedding into this, into our guidance, any expectation that the tenants are going to be paying us early termination fees. We're assuming that they live by the contractual obligations that they have, and that the terms of the agreement hold up. If, as we go along, you've heard us talk about the pay and walk fees that we had associated with Sprint as they were decommissioning their iDEN networks, there may be some of that over time. They'll have an obligation, either to make the site back to the condition that it was prior to the equipment was installed, or we would be happy to perform that service for them. We're not forecasting that in our outlook, but that would end up running through our services business, and not through site rental revenues. We typically think of that as one-time work, and put that in site rental revenue -- and put that in services instead of in site rental revenue, so. But we haven't embedded any of that in our forecast, over time.
Colby Synesael - Cowen and Company, LLC, Research Division:
So right now, the turndown of the sites is actually aligned with when the contracts [indiscernible] .
Jay A. Brown:
Based on their contractual rights, that's how we've done it. So they're -- it's their -- let me just roll the clock back, and make sure I give you a wholesome answer and one way to think about this. When Sprint was looking at decommissioning their iDEN network years ago, they ended up coming back and doing short-term lease extensions on some of their sites in order to -- because they weren't quite ready to decommission sites at a particular date and time. What we have provided for you is what we believe, based on what those 3 carriers have told us about when they're going to decommission sites and the amounts of those, we provided that information to you. That's our expectation of the $200 million. That aligns with their contractual rights under the tenant leases that they have with us. If they were to come back and extend that timeline or facts change, then I think we would be open to having a conversation, and we'll update you as those conversations proceed, but what we've given you is a combination of their contractual rights and obligations against what they've told us about the decommissioning of the site.
Operator:
And we'll go next with Phil Cusick with JPMorgan.
Philip Cusick - JP Morgan Chase & Co, Research Division:
This goes a little bit to a question a couple ago, but can you help us think about the potential for CapEx and an expansion in 2015 under the 75% payout ratio? On our math, and admittedly, it's a little preliminary, but it looks like you'd have to take CapEx down somewhat year-over-year, or go out and borrow money, which you said you don't want to put yourself in a position to. Does it seem like there are fewer opportunities? Or am I just totally off-base?
W. Benjamin Moreland:
Yes, go ahead, Jay.
Jay A. Brown:
So we sized it, as Ben mentioned. If you look at what we spent in the third quarter for land purchases and the construction of new sites, that's effectively 25% of AFFO. The balance of the CapEx that we have is basically reimbursed by the tenants as they go on the site. It's spending on CapEx on existing sites, and that's basically reimbursed. So at the current spending level, using Q3 as the measure of that. At the current spending level, we can cover that CapEx with the 25% of AFFO. Frankly, that's one of the primary ways that we size the dividend at 75%.
Philip Cusick - JP Morgan Chase & Co, Research Division:
Any more spending would probably be offset by preliminary or pre-fees that you don't count on AFFO anymore?
Jay A. Brown:
Yes, well I think it's -- to the extent that we grew the business and we started to say we wanted to invest more in small cells, well that's a discrete investment, similar to the way we would think about an acquisition and we'd need to go through that math. I think the other, as we think about a more normal CapEx that we would spend in the business as we add additional tenants for the sites, that CapEx is absolutely reimbursed by the tenant.
Philip Cusick - JP Morgan Chase & Co, Research Division:
And just to make sure I'm on the same page, when you say that small cell is similar to an acquisition, does that mean that you would borrow to fund that small cell business? You may need to borrow to fund that small cell business?
Jay A. Brown:
Yes. If we grow past the run rate of Q3, we would need to, yes.
W. Benjamin Moreland:
And be happy to do that, to the extent there's opportunities that, just like an acquisition, as Jay said, just like -- assuming the opportunity covered the cost, we're not going to be too hard on that, the whole point of not borrowing. We've got balance sheet capacity, and we'd be prepared to use it. What I wanted to do in sizing the dividend is not put ourselves in a position where we had to do that, just to capture the existing opportunity on our current sites. And so that's what Jay was saying, at the current spend level, we're covered. But to the extent the opportunity was there, and warranted it, we'd be happy to continue to access capital and borrow some, just to cover that over time.
Philip Cusick - JP Morgan Chase & Co, Research Division:
Great. Okay, I thought you were ruling that out a few minutes ago.
W. Benjamin Moreland:
No, no. Glad for the clarification.
Operator:
We'll go next to Amir Rozwadowski with Barclays.
Amir Rozwadowski - Barclays Capital, Research Division:
Just wanted to clarify some of the comments you made early -- in some of the earlier questions. We talked about this sort of $100 million sort of growth on the tower portfolio side, and it does seem as though that if we do see an increase in co-location activity, that could provide some further tailwinds for sort of an expanded opportunity there. Is that the right interpretation of how we should think about things?
W. Benjamin Moreland:
Amir, I would say about that, as I was making a comment about the ebbs and flows that we'd see in the business, typically, and I would encourage you to look at this relative to the comments that the carriers are making around the CapEx and their spend in the networks, there is a natural ebb and flow that happens between the spending they make for amendments and the spending they do for new leases. Our experience has been, the dollars and the spend on the networks is relatively similar year-over-year. The allocation of where those dollars goes tends to change. And so to the extent that you were to assume there was meaningfully more new co-locations being put out, is there a possibility that, that could mean more revenue to us? Absolutely. It could also mean that the 35% of our current activity that is amendments, that number may go down, and may offset some of the increase that we see with new co-location. So as we think about the business, we tend to think about it more on a -- over a long period of time, how much revenue per tower can we add, and that 0.1 is adding about $2,400 per tower of new revenues. And we have a belief that over time, that will be a mix of new leases and amendments. And our experience has been that, that will change from year to year, but sort of results in something that looks similar to that 0.1 tenants per tower.
Amir Rozwadowski - Barclays Capital, Research Division:
If I may, one other quick question on the small cell side. If we hear what the carriers are saying, particularly when it comes to allocation of capital more towards densification and capacity type initiatives, it does feel as though we should start to see potentially increased momentum around that front. You had mentioned there's been -- largely Verizon has been focused on that, but clearly, it does seem like all the carriers, at some point in time, are going to embrace this type of network architecture. How should we think about the opportunity set for accelerating growth on the small cell side, given your footprint within that arena?
W. Benjamin Moreland:
Amir, this is Ben. We think that's a tremendous opportunity and one that we are actively working on capturing for Crown Castle. We have a very large and growing pipeline of network opportunities to be built, as well as co-location, and I do agree with you, and it's certainly our investment thesis that we will see the other 3 carriers adopt that architecture in a very meaningful way over time, based upon the capacity requirements of their systems and the locations of where we're building these networks. That has happened over time, various carriers and we still have -- we have a significant amount of exposure and revenue. As we said earlier, Metro PCS, for example, now under T-Mobile, all of those leases are -- have been affirmed and don't expect those to churn, which is, I think, an interesting indication of the value of the small cell networks going forward, in that these are very vital to adding capacity and densification and are not subject, at least, thus far, to the rationalization that we've seen on the tower side.
Operator:
And we'll go next to Tim Horan with Oppenheimer.
Timothy K. Horan - Oppenheimer & Co. Inc., Research Division:
Two quick ones, and then a longer one, sorry. The AT&T transaction, would that have met your interest in dividend requirements as you currently define them with the new dividend? Secondly, your investment bankers really had weeks to look into transaction and we just had couple of hours. Did they kind of tell you what they thought the dividend yield would settle out at, when the market kind of really absorbs all this? And then third, the longer question here really, investors had been really nervous about shutdowns of cell sites and consolidation, and it didn't seem like the management suits [ph] in the industry were as nervous about it. What has really changed that from your thinking, kind of things 6 months ago, 3 months ago, or what we've seen historically? Historically, we've never really seen shutdowns like this.
Jay A. Brown:
Yes, on the first question, the AT&T transaction would have met that, and we believe that would be accretive to the dividend over time. We wouldn't have done the transaction if we didn't believe the dividend was going to be higher. As Ben mentioned on the investment banker views that we got, we engaged and asked several firms to give us their views, those views were ranging, in terms of what they -- how they thought the market would react to the news as well as their opinion on what the best approach was. I think that there was a whole variety of views there, and as we looked at the information and consider both the feedback from shareholders as well as the information that we generated and analysis we did on our own, our belief was that increasing the dividend to about 75% of AFFO was the best outcome for us over a long period of time. And so there were a number of views there, as Ben mentioned in his comments, but we thought it was the best approach.
W. Benjamin Moreland:
Tim, in terms of specific yield, we'll let the market sort that out and tell us over time. I would offer the following observation though. We're currently trading this initial yield as of last night, and that's about a 4% yield. That would put us above the REIT composite by a significant margin, and I like my new REIT colleagues, but I wouldn't trade places with their business models. And so when I look at our opportunity for stability and growth, as the mission-critical infrastructure provider in the U.S. market, I think that's a fabulous business model, and as we've said a couple of times on this call and I'll repeat, the fact that we got built-in growth on top of that dividend, I think is clearly unique, and the market will sort out what the appropriate dividend yield is over time and the total return expectation, but we'll certainly be out working to help them understand the resiliency and the sustainability of this business through lots of different macroeconomic cycles where, back since we went public initially, we've outperformed the S&P 500 by sort of 4x, and that's right through all of the different cycles that we've experienced since that time. In terms of your last question on the churn, what's different this time, I think it is a little bit different this time. As you go forward, there is rationalization that can occur in these networks, particularly around overlap sites, plus a little more, which is what we're forecasting. And yet at the same time, we're seeing continued new cell site density added, which is forecasted in our revenue growth, as we've talked about. So I think we've probably accurately captured it. You could say, well, leasing may be a little lower if they're actually just repurposing some of the cell sites, that's true. But on a net basis, I think it probably comes out about where we've said. So we'll have to wait and see how that develops over time, but I think it is a little bit different, particularly in that we have 3 happening here in fairly -- much on top of each other.
Jay A. Brown:
There seems to be in the comments, and at least what they're indicating to us is their plans around their networks, more of a focus on spectral efficiency than what there's been in past consolidations. And so that's likely the reason why we're seeing more than the overlap sites go away. T-Mobile's comments publicly about the Metro sites. I think Metro has about 12,000 macro sites. T-Mobile has indicated that 10,000 of those 12,000 are going to go away, and their description, along with the other's descriptions is largely around, reharvesting and reusing that spectrum in a more efficient way by taking down greater portions of the network than what we've seen in past consolidations.
Timothy K. Horan - Oppenheimer & Co. Inc., Research Division:
And any idea why American Towers is not seeing the same effects that you guys are?
W. Benjamin Moreland:
I wouldn't have any comment on American Tower. You'd need to ask them.
Operator:
We'll go next to Batya Levi with UBS.
Batya Levi - UBS Investment Bank, Research Division:
You touched on this before, but I wanted to get a little bit more specifics on the split of the churn coming from the acquired networks. Is the majority coming from Clearwire, I think, and is it mostly the urban market? I think you had mentioned before that the contract was going to be up for renewal, I think, in '15 and '16. And when you look at the PCS, T-Mo, I believe you had mentioned that the overlap is about 2% of your revenues and you had a contract until '17. AT&T, Leap was similar, so you did mention that the rationalization piece is a little beyond overlap. So can you maybe provide a bit more color on what is included in the overlap, and what do you think is beyond that?
W. Benjamin Moreland:
I wouldn't put the majority on any one of those tenants. The ranges that we provided, we intentionally didn't go customer by customer on the ranges. It gives us that a little bit of flexibility as it shakes out over the next several years, as those 3 operators decommission their networks. We would expect it to move to some degree, which is why we tried to ban the exposure. As you noted, when those announcements were made, we indicated the overlap sites was in the neighborhood of about $145 million of sites that were overlapped. So the incremental amount of roughly $55 million of additional churn exposure that we believe we have, those would be on sites where they're not necessarily -- where they're not overlapping with the acquired network. And my comments to the prior question around spectral efficiency, I think probably best answer the why there. In the disclosure that we had previously given, we gave the average term outstanding for the leases. And so as we kind of work through that, obviously, you can see that average basically work itself out as we've shown over the longer period of time what our exposure is to those 3 networks.
Operator:
And we'll go next to Michael Bowen with Pacific Crest Investment Bank.
Michael G. Bowen - Pacific Crest Securities, Inc., Research Division:
A couple of questions here. I'm trying to figure out, first of all, with regard to the dividend, was there any thought process around, rather than returning capital to shareholders. Rather than doing that, maybe spend on targeting acceleration in that 0.1 per year for the AT&T and T-Mobile portfolios? And then #2, does this now make you guys start to think a little bit about international investments more seriously? Because clearly, we're seeing higher growth rates, organic growth rates in international than we are here in the U.S.
W. Benjamin Moreland:
I don't know where to start with that. I didn't catch the, if you spend to increase the leasing, boy, if it was that simple, we would have done it 15 years ago. There's no discretionary spend on our part, that is inhibiting the leasing of the carrier towers or all the towers that we own today. So it's -- we're actively out pursuing every one of those opportunities and that's what's resident in the $100 million of revenue growth that we're seeing today, Michael. So the dividend again, how we sized it, was essentially to retain the capital to pursue the organic opportunities that we see today. The international opportunities that are out there, we'll continue to evaluate them, as I've said on these calls many times, against the appropriate sort of risk-adjusted rate of return we think, and -- is appropriate against the asset prices that are out there. In so doing, you have to look at what local borrowing costs are, what exposure to FX would potentially do and all the other factors that would involve an evaluation such as that. Thus far, in our judgment, the investments we've made in the U.S. have a higher risk-adjusted return profile opportunity, but we'll let that sort itself out over time.
Michael G. Bowen - Pacific Crest Securities, Inc., Research Division:
Yes, and where I was going with the first question was, whether there's anything that you guys could put in place, rather than paying a dividend to use that capital rather to increase the tenant per tower, the incremental increase on a per year basis, is there anything that you contemplate or any thoughts around things you could do to accelerate that? It sounds like the answer is no, but that's where --
W. Benjamin Moreland:
Yes, no. That we -- I can assure you, we're capturing every one of those incremental revenue opportunities. That's our core business, and what most everybody that works here is focused on every day. But just to be complete, the competing thought that we had lots of discussion with shareholders and we've engaged in this in a very productive way before, would be to take the $1.1 billion of dividends we're now going to pay out and buy shares with it, retain the flexibility until the NOL has burned off, and buy shares opportunistically with it. Potentially, like on a day like today, when we announced that there's $200 million of churn coming. So we specifically rejected that. We understand how that drives, on a per share basis, higher growth in the short term, but we think long term, the right approach was to demonstrate the sustainability through the quarterly return of a material part of this cash flow to shareholders and have a very significant component of their total return be made up by the current distribution plus the contracted escalator growth and then the opportunity that we see to continue to add organic and external growth in the business. But that would have been the competing agenda, and one we respect and one we've executed very successfully. In the past, we've bought $2.7 billion worth of stock over time, but the course we've set for the reasons that I mentioned in my notes at the beginning of this call, we think is the best long-term approach for the company.
Michael G. Bowen - Pacific Crest Securities, Inc., Research Division:
And just very quickly, do you guys have an expiration schedule for the NOLs? Is there an average? Or do you have a ladder that you can share with us?
Jay A. Brown:
Yes, they started between 2020 and 2030. The average is about 2025.
Operator:
And we'll go next to Spencer Kurn with New Street Research.
Spencer Kurn - New Street Research LLP:
I was wondering if you could just point us to any time frame for signs we can look for an acceleration in your overall organic growth from the AT&T or T-Mobile towers that you're seeing?
W. Benjamin Moreland:
I think if you asked us today, as we mentioned are performing in line with our underwriting model. We took a 10-year view on those models, and they're performing right at about the average that we expected over 10 years, and out of the gate are right there, so we're not anticipating, or frankly, do we need to anticipate an acceleration of activity in order to get to our returns. So our game plan is to continue to run the asset as we've been doing out of the gate, and that will provide a terrific return. But it's early days. And as I mentioned earlier on this call, the primary co-locator in this market has been Verizon, since we've owned these 2 new portfolios and so as we would expect and certainly, as we underwrote, we will return to a period of time, I think we're already been beginning to see it, where the other 3 are going to need to infill their networks with increased density, where these portfolios will certainly be available for them to do that. So that's part of our underwriting thesis.
Spencer Kurn - New Street Research LLP:
Got it. And I guess if I look at your organic revenue growth guidance before decommissionings, it looks like you're implying a modest slowdown from where you came in this past quarter, and I would've thought that excluding the negative impacts of churn, we'd see an acceleration into next year.
Jay A. Brown:
Yes. Quarter-to-quarter, they're a bit challenging to do. I would tell you typically in the back half of the years, we see more activity than in the front half. So I would encourage you to look at things more on a holistic, full year over full year basis. We're forecasting, as we've mentioned a couple of times on this call, full year '15 to look pretty similar to full year '14. Well up about a little bit higher.
W. Benjamin Moreland:
Yes, up about $20 million off of '14 numbers.
Operator:
And we'll go next to Ana Goshko with Bank of America.
Ana Goshko - BofA Merrill Lynch, Research Division:
I wanted to ask you, you continue to mention the goal of achieving an investment-grade rating, but wanted to understand what you believe or what you know from conversations with the rating agencies, what the catalyst is to achieve that, because you are at your target leverage ratio, with a muted growth outlook, at least in the near-term, the EBITDA metrics will not be improving, and then with a higher dividend, there's really not cash left to pay down debt in any material fashion.
Jay A. Brown:
Honestly, it's the decision of the rating agencies as to where they place our ratings on the credit facilities, and the conversations we've been having with them over several years is the same conversation we've had on this call this morning, and have for a long period of time, around the risk profile of the assets, the stability of the cash flows and where that should be rated. I think relative, if we compare ourselves to other real estate businesses, we feel like our credit statistics are very favorable, and the rating agencies over time have embraced that view, and we have seen them gradually increase the ratings and increase the appetite for leverage on these businesses, which we think is appropriate. We don't anticipate, and you've correctly pointed out, we don't anticipate taking a significant portion of our cash and paying down debt, but we do expect the business to continue to grow, and so we'll achieve deleveraging of the business just through natural growth and EBITDA, rather than the pay-down of debt. And we certainly, on the call this morning, wanted to make the comment and the statement that as we think about our dividend payout, increasing the dividend payout meaningfully, we think, as an important component of that is to stay on this path that we've been on towards achieving an investment-grade credit rating, and that's certainly our intention and plan at this point.
W. Benjamin Moreland:
And part of our analysis that we reflected on earlier in the call was that in order to get -- and it's been a long-held view we've had, in order to get the maximum appreciation and value out of this dividend stream that we're now undertaking, an investment-grade rating is probably the right way to accomplish that over time. As Jay says, we don't expect to do anything unnatural to get there, but I think we'll get there over time through continued growth, and I think that's the right way to think about the business.
Ana Goshko - BofA Merrill Lynch, Research Division:
I have 2 follow-ups. So one, do you believe that the increase in the dividend from the agency standpoint has sort of set you back? Or are you still on the same path or the same place on achieving the rating?
Jay A. Brown:
No, I don't think it set us back. I think the communication we're having with them on this is similar to what we said on this call, that we intend to continue on the path towards an investment grade credit rating and deleveraging, as we see growth in EBITDA, and so that's sort of the plan.
Ana Goshko - BofA Merrill Lynch, Research Division:
Okay. And then secondly, Jay, you did say publicly, and very theoretically, on the potential to acquire the Verizon assets that, if that were the case, you would be willing to take leverage back up over the 6x target, at least temporarily. But with the higher amount of cash flow that's going to be supporting the dividend, wondering if that's still the case.
Jay A. Brown:
Yes. I think all of those comments still hold. If we were to take leverage up, that would be -- well start if we were to do the transaction, we would have to believe that's accretive to the dividend and to AFFO per share over a long period of time. And we'd expect that, that would be the case, frankly, in both the short and the long term. The second part of it, around how we would finance it, I think we would still be open to taking leverage up to the high end of our targeted level of leverage range, maybe slightly above it. However, the only way we would be interested in doing that is if we had a plan to quickly delever back down to where we've been aiming towards to -- in your prior questions, around an investment-grade credit rating. So I think if -- we would be open to doing that. We think the Verizon towers could represent a very unique opportunity in the U.S. market. There are not, we don't believe, very many U.S. assets left of any substantial size. So if that were to happen, we think that's, in a sense, a bit of an anomaly and a really unique opportunity. So if it were there, we'd have to consider the appropriate way to finance it, and I think on the table, in those conversations, would certainly be a thought around leverage.
W. Benjamin Moreland:
I think with that, we'll wrap up. We've gone long this morning, and I appreciate those that have stuck with us here. We wanted to make sure we captured all of your questions. We are very excited about our future prospects, and today, I think, is a very important day for Crown Castle as we've now proceeded with it. What I think is an unprecedented and unique opportunity for shareholders to invest in the U.S. wireless business with us, an infrastructure that will carry a very significant and growing current return, and we are very pleased with how we're positioned. So thank you for your attention this morning, and we'll talk to you next quarter.
Operator:
Thank you. This concludes today's conference, and we appreciate your participation.
Executives:
Son Nguyen - Vice President of Corporate Finance Jay A. Brown - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President and Treasurer W. Benjamin Moreland - Chief Executive Officer, President and Director
Analysts:
Simon Flannery - Morgan Stanley, Research Division David W. Barden - BofA Merrill Lynch, Research Division Richard H. Prentiss - Raymond James & Associates, Inc., Research Division Philip Cusick - JP Morgan Chase & Co, Research Division Amir Rozwadowski - Barclays Capital, Research Division Jonathan A. Schildkraut - Evercore Partners Inc., Research Division Imari Love - Morningstar Inc., Research Division Batya Levi - UBS Investment Bank, Research Division Michael G. Bowen - Pacific Crest Securities, Inc., Research Division Colby Synesael - Cowen and Company, LLC, Research Division Jonathan Chaplin - New Street Research LLP Timothy K. Horan - Oppenheimer & Co. Inc., Research Division
Operator:
Good day, everyone and welcome to the Crown Castle International's Second Quarter 2014 Earnings Results Conference Call. Today's call is being recorded. And I'd now like to turn the conference over to Son Nguyen. Please go ahead, sir.
Son Nguyen:
Thank you, Vicki, and good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us today as we review our second quarter 2014 results. With me on the call this morning are Ben Moreland, Crown Castle's Chief Executive Officer; and Jay Brown, Crown Castle's Chief Financial Officer. To aid this discussion, we have posted supplemental materials in the Investors section of our website at crowncastle.com, which we will refer to throughout the call this morning. This conference call will contain forward-looking statements, which are subject to certain risks, uncertainties and assumptions, and actual results may vary materially from those expected. Information about potential factors which could affect our results is available in the press release and the Risk Factors section of the company's SEC filings. Our statements are made as of today, July 24, 2014, and we assume no obligation to update any forward-looking statements. In addition, today's call includes discussions of certain non-GAAP financial measures. These reconciling -- such non-GAAP financial measures are available in the supplemental information package in the Investors section of the company's website at crowncastle.com. With that, I'll turn the call over to Jay.
Jay A. Brown:
Thanks, Son, and good morning, everyone. We had another great quarter in Q2 2014 exceeding the high end of our previously issued outlook for site rental revenue, adjusted EBITDA and AFFO. The excellent results achieved during the second quarter allow us to increase our outlook for full year 2014. During the quarter, we also made significant progress integrating the AT&T towers, and we expect to substantially complete integration by the fall of this year. Turning to Slide 3. In the second quarter, site rental revenue grew 21% year-over-year from $617 million to $746 million. Organic Site Rental Revenue before nonrenewals increased by $50 million, an increase of approximately 9% compared to the same period in 2013. The approximately 9% Organic Site Rental Revenue growth is comprised of approximately 4% growth from cash escalations in our customer lease contracts and approximately 5% growth from new leasing activity. As a part of the new leasing activity, we are continuing to see very strong demand for our small cell networks. At the end of the second quarter, we had nearly 13,000 small cell nodes on air or under construction and over 6,000 miles of fiber. In addition, we have executed contracts for over 3,500 new small cell nodes to build and we are at various stages of preconstruction work, including design and permitting. Site rental revenue from our cell -- small cell networks is up approximately 26% year-over-year, and small cells generated 6% of consolidated site rental revenues. For the quarter, nonrenewal of tenant leases reaching their contractual term end date, inclusive of Sprint's iDEN decommissioning, was in line with our expectations of approximately 2% of site rental revenue. As shown on Slide 4, site rental gross margin increased $72 million to $509 million, up 16% from the second quarter of 2013. In Q2, our site rental operating expenses of $237 million came in higher than our previously provided Q2 outlook range by $2 million. Excluding a noncash purchase accounting adjustment related to our acquisition of AT&T towers, our site rental operating expenses would have been within our guidance range. This noncash item doesn't impact adjusted EBITDA or AFFO. For the full year 2014, this noncash item results in an increase to site rental operating expenses of approximately $3 million and is reflected in our revised outlook. Adjusted EBITDA for Q2 increased 19% from the same quarter in 2013. This growth is attributable to the increase in site rental gross margin, inclusive of the AT&T towers, and the strong performance from network services and offset to a small degree by increased G&A. Compared to the same quarter last year, site rental gross margin and adjusted EBITDA margin percentages were negatively impacted by the AT&T tower transaction, which have an average tenancy of 1.7 tenants and, therefore, lower margins when compared to our legacy assets with approximately 3 tenants per tower. In addition, site rental gross margin and adjusted EBITDA were impacted by the investment we have made in our people, processes and assets over the last several quarters, which shows up in our increased run rate of site rental and network services operating expenses, as well as G&A. This increase in cost is being made to accommodate the high level of leasing activity we are experiencing on both towers and small cells. I would also note that the increase in contribution from network services alone far exceeds the totality of the increase in run rate costs. The increase in costs to manage an expanded portfolio is consistent with our past practice and our strategy to provide the highest level of customer service in the industry. To provide some context, in 2007 when we closed the Global Signal acquisition of approximately 11,000 towers, site rental gross margin postacquisition was 64% compared to 70% prior to the acquisition. In a period of 2 years, margins returned to 70%, reaching 75% within 4 years. The investment we made in additional staffing during that time frame positioned us to meaningfully grow our business, as site rental revenues increased from $1.3 billion in 2007 to $1.9 billion over the same 4-year period. In the absence of additional acquisitions, we expect to see our site rental gross margin and adjusted EBITDA margin percentages expand as carriers add equipment to our sites, reflecting the high operating leverage of our business and increasing the yield on our assets. AFFO for the second quarter was $351 million compared to $273 million for the same period a year ago, an increase of 28%. On a per-share basis, AFFO was up 13% increasing from $0.93 per share to $1.05 per share. Moving on to investments and financing activities as shown on Slide 5. During the quarter, we closed on an 8-year, $850 million senior notes offering with a coupon of 4.875%. Proceeds from the offering were used to refinance $800 million of existing debt that had a weighted average coupon of approximately 6%. Today, our weighted average cost of debt stands at 4.2% with a weighted average maturity of 6 years. Our total net debt to last quarter annualized adjusted EBITDA is 5.3x, and adjusted EBITDA to cash interest expense is 4.3x. We expect to continue to delever through growth and adjusted EBITDA with the goal of reducing debt to adjusted EBITDA below 5x, which we believe should position us for an investment grade credit rating. During the second quarter, we invested $167 million in capital expenditures. These capital expenditures included $25 million on our land lease purchase program. During the quarter, we extended 389 land leases on our sites by an average of approximately 26 years. This extension activity impacted consolidated recurring cash ground lease expense by approximately 10 basis points. Additionally, we purchased land beneath 125 of our towers during the quarter. Today approximately 1/3 of our site rental gross margin is generated from towers on land we own, and approximately 70% on land we own or lease for more than 20 years. Where we have ground leases, the average term remaining on our ground leases is approximately 29 years. Since we began this important effort, we have completed over 16,000 individual land transactions. Our proactive approach to achieving long-term control of the ground beneath our sites is core to our business as we look to control our largest operating expense. Of the remaining capital expenditures, we invested $129 million on revenue-generating capital expenditures consisting of $96 million on existing sites and $33 million on the construction of new sites, primarily small cell construction activity. We also spent approximately $13 million on sustaining CapEx, which was below our second quarter 2014 outlook. However, we've not adjusted our full year outlook for sustaining capital expenditures as we expect to perform the same sustaining CapEx activities within 2014, completing this expected work during the second half of the year. Further during the quarter, we paid a quarterly common stock dividend of $0.35 per share or $117 million in aggregate. On Slide 6, I'd like to spend a minute to discuss the sequential impact to the third quarter of 2014 as it relates to adjusted EBITDA and AFFO. Our Q3 2014 outlook for adjusted EBITDA assumes that network services margin contribution to be similar to Q2 2014, which is meaningfully higher than our previous outlook for second half of 2014. And consistent with my prior comments regarding our investment in people, processes and assets, we expect to incur higher G&A expenses in Q3 2014 as compared to Q2 2014. In addition to the flow-through impact from adjusted EBITDA, our Q3 2014 outlook for AFFO also reflects higher anticipated sustaining capital expenditures as compared to Q2, related to the buildout of additional office space and for the timing reason I previously mentioned. Turning to 2014 outlook on Slide 7. Based on our second quarter results and taking into account the change in our exchange rate assumption for Australia, we have increased full year 2014 outlook for site rental revenues, adjusted EBITDA and AFFO by $7 million, $34 million and $30 million, respectively, at the midpoint. As shown on Slide 8, the midpoint of our 2014 outlook for site rental revenues implies growth of 20% on an as-reported basis or approximately $491 million compared to full year 2013. On an organic basis before nonrenewals, our 2014 outlook implies revenue growth of approximately 9% year-over-year at the midpoint. This 9% is comprised of approximately 5% from new leasing activity and approximately 4% from escalations on existing customer lease contracts. Further, based on Sprint's stated intention to decommission their iDEN network and our contractual terms with Sprint, we expect approximately 3% of our run rate site rental revenues to be impacted by the iDEN network decommissioning. These iDEN leases have effective term end dates spread throughout 2014 and 2015. As such, we expect our site rental revenues to be impacted by approximately $30 million in 2014 and $60 million to $70 million in 2015. On an organic basis, net of nonrenewals, our 2014 outlook implies revenue growth of approximately 6% year-over-year at the midpoint. Our increased 2014 outlook for adjusted EBITDA implies 17% growth year-over-year, reflecting higher expected contribution from network services, as well as our acquisition of the AT&T towers. Our team continues to do an outstanding job in executing for our customers. While much of the growth in network services can be attributed to the increase in our asset portfolio over the last several years, our team has captured more of the services opportunities related to our towers by working closely with our carrier customers. With the demand for wireless infrastructure expected to continue, we believe that the contribution from network services should be sustainable for some time. Moving on to AFFO on Slide 9, our increased outlook for full year 2014 reflects the increase in our outlook for adjusted EBITDA, offset somewhat by higher sustaining capital expenditures. At the midpoint, AFFO of $1.38 billion for 2014 implies per share growth of 13% over full year 2013. Based on our 2014 outlook, we expect to generate approximately $1.6 billion between AFFO and net prepaid rent. Approximately 30% of this $1.6 billion is allocated to dividends; another 40% is allocated to planned but not -- but discretionary capital expenditures, such as land purchases, construction of towers and small cells and other capital expenditures associated with additional leasing activity; the remaining 30% is available to pursue share purchases and acquisitions, in addition to increasing the amount we plan to spend on revenue-generating capital expenditures. As we've discussed previously, over the next 5 years, we expect to increase our dividend per share by at least 15% annually. We currently have a net operating loss balance, or NOL, of approximately $2 billion, which we would expect to utilize prior to 2020. We expect that once the NOLs are exhausted, our dividend payout as a percentage of AFFO will increase from the approximately 30% today to something in the area of 70% to 80%, which implies a compound annual growth rate of our dividend in excess of 20% over this period of time. Currently, we are utilizing the flexibility afforded by the NOLs to make accretive, long-term discretionary investments. These discretionary investments may include acquisitions; the construction of new sites, including small cell networks; land purchases; and the purchase of our own securities. When considering these investments, we evaluate each opportunity based on our goal of maximizing our long-term dividends and AFFO per share. This strategy is not new. Over a very long period of time, our approach to capital allocation combined with strong execution has driven significant growth in AFFO per share. So in summary, we had a great second quarter, and I believe that our capital allocation strategy will enhance our long-term growth of AFFO per share and dividends. And with that, I'll turn the call over to Ben.
W. Benjamin Moreland:
Thanks, Jay and thanks to all of you for joining us on the call this morning. As Jay just discussed, the second quarter was another excellent quarter, positioning us once again to raise our full year outlook. As shown on Slide 10, we are continuing our track record of consistent execution over a long period of time. Through strong execution and disciplined capital allocation, we have delivered strong AFFO per share growth, growing AFFO per share at a compound annual growth rate of 17% since 2007. Importantly, this growth transcended the financial crisis of 2008 and 2009, and continues today while we have taken decisive steps to position ourselves as the U.S. market leader with unmatched scale and capabilities. Today, we have new opportunities in small cells and tower leasing unforeseen just a few years ago. And we created this future runway of growth without materially altering the risk profile of the company. For the full year of 2014, our midpoint of our outlook suggests AFFO per share growth of 13% compared to 2013, plus the dividends we initiated this year. We are committed to extending this track record of growth over the long term, and we believe that the growth in AFFO per share and dividends will deliver attractive long-term total shareholder returns. Quite frankly, the degree to which we accomplish this goal over the long term is heavily dependent on our ability to increase tenants on the approximately $9 billion in investments we have made over the last few years with the T-Mobile tower and AT&T tower transactions and the NextG small cell acquisition. In many ways, our approach to capital allocation is a reflection of our corporate strategy; we think long term. We have invested deeply in the U.S. as we believe the U.S. market offers the most compelling risk-adjusted returns. Simply, our goal with capital allocation is to maximize our long-term dividend paying capacity from growth and AFFO per share. We believe that this growth -- this goal dovetails nicely with our recent commencement of operations as a REIT. Going one step further, in assessing our long-term dividend paying capacity, we take into consideration many aspects, including the quality of our underlying clash flows, our long-term growth potential and the risks associated with our business. When evaluating potential discretionary investments, we seek to maximize AFFO per share relative to comparable investments such as share repurchases. Since 2003, we've invested $2.9 billion in share purchases, buying back over 100 million shares or share equivalents at an average price of approximately $28 per share. As such, we view our investment hurdle rate as the long-term total shareholder return we would expect from purchasing our shares as measured by the growth in dividend and AFFO over that same period of time. Further, when it comes to various alternative investments, whether they are domestic or international assets or small cells or macro towers, we adjust the comparative returns to take into account any perceived differences in the underlying risk of the investment. Adjustments are made to account for such things as currency and political risks, differences in business fundamentals and available financing sources. For the T-Mobile and AT&T transactions, our investment thesis is that we should be able to replicate the performance of our legacy assets with these newly acquired assets over time. As shown on Slide 11, we believe the T-Mobile and AT&T tower assets with an average tenancy of 1.6 and 1.7 tenants, respectively, provide an opportunity to enhance our long-term AFFO per share growth by adding tenants. Tower assets that we've owned and operated for more than 10 years have approximately 3 tenants per tower today, and an excess of $90,000 in revenues per tower and currently yield 15% on total invested capital, representing significant shareholder value creation when compared to the initial yield at the time of purchase of approximately 4% to 5%, similar to the T-Mobile and AT&T transactions. With our history of acquiring and operating carrier portfolios, we believe that these new assets will perform and achieve yields similar to our legacy assets. Further, as Jay stated, we are currently investing in our people, processes and assets to position us over the long term to realize the lease-up potential on these new towers, which have significant available capacity. These assets are well located, as we've stated before, with a significant concentration in the top 100 markets where the majority of carrier spending occurs. And most importantly, our investments were made based on our view that there will be continued and significant wireless network investment over the next decade to support the services that we have all come to depend on. We believe the case for continuing investment in wireless infrastructure in the U.S. is very compelling for the wireless carriers. As shown on Slide 12, the U.S. market, with $189 billion in wireless service revenue supporting $34 billion in capital investments on behalf of the carriers, is uniquely attractive due to its relative size and robustness compared to other markets. Increasingly, there is a high correlation between network investment and customer satisfaction, leading carriers to continue to upgrade their wireless networks to improve network quality, increase capacity and add functionality in order to remain competitive and grow. This virtuous cycle was reinforced just this week, as Verizon indicated on their earnings call their continuing commitment to network investment with wireless CapEx, expected to be up significantly year-over-year. They are not alone in this pursuit as Sprint, AT&T and T-Mobile are each aggressively investing in LTE upgrades, adding capacity and broadband speed. And our portfolio of sites and capabilities are fully engaged at this point, helping them pursue this endeavor. Further, as can be seen on Slide 12, there is also a high correlation between unit economics and carrier capital investment. With strong unit economics of $50-plus per subscriber per month or $600 annually, U.S. carriers are able to generate positive incremental returns on their capital investment on a scale that dwarfs other geographies. The relatively high ARPU is supported by the staggering growth in mobile data consumption by U.S. subscribers. In CTIA's latest report, during 2013, mobile data consumption was estimated to have more than doubled when compared to 2012. Moreover, consumers are increasingly becoming more reliant on mobile in their everyday lives. According to CDC's National Center for Health Statistics, at the end of last year, approximately 41% of U.S. households relied solely on wireless phones. CTIA reports that this number jumps to over 55% when including households that have -- that do not rely on wireline services. The average U.S. consumer spends more than 50% of his or her Internet time on mobile devices currently. In fact, according to peer research, 34% of mobile U.S. subscribers use their mobile devices as their primary device to access the Internet. Today, it seems as though almost every aspects of our lives have gone mobile
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] And we will first go to Simon Flannery with Morgan Stanley.
Simon Flannery - Morgan Stanley, Research Division:
Ben, nice overview. I wonder if you can square some of the headlines we're hearing about spending freezes at the carriers and other issues out of the equipment providers. You've had strong services businesses. You've got a good outlook for the second half of the year. So what are you actually seeing in the field? Are you seeing any signs of this? Because clearly, there is a little bit of a disconnect that people are trying to get their heads around. And on the services, I think you talked about it being strong into Q3. Can you just give us a little bit of a longer-term outlook? Is this something as we go into '15, you see these levels being maintained as well?
W. Benjamin Moreland:
Sure, Simon. First of all, on the capital spending side with the carriers, we're seeing a lot of activity. And I believe that AT&T addressed this on their call, any slowdown or deferment in the second half of the year that AT&T may be pursuing is completely immaterial to what we're seeing. And we have a tremendous amount of activity going on, frankly, with all 4 wireless carriers. And application volume, if you include new site installations, as well as amendments for us sort of year-to-date are up materially from last year. Now we do have a larger portfolio, I would acknowledge, but we got a lot going on, on that front. And as evidenced by 9% organic revenue growth in our outlook is -- that's moving, and that's a lot of work going on. So we are thrilled with what we see happening on -- by all 4 carriers as they're working on LTE. Your second question around services is one we continue to spend a lot of time on as a management team. Our group out there in the field, and many of them are listening, continue to amaze and are doing a fantastic job of capturing the opportunities and serving our customers in the field and assisting them on getting on our sites. And the scope of that work has increased over time. A lot of it has increased because the size of the portfolio has increased, but we are increasingly becoming confident that there is certainly a run rate of opportunity out there in this business. And we've gone back and looked at it since 2007, 2008 and '09 where we've come to add capability and there's always a lot of stuff going on, on our sites, which is a recurring opportunity for us. So you saw us raise guidance for the second half of the year such that it's going to look a lot like the first half of the year. And as we look out into '15, I'm not going to give you guidance yet on '15, but we're pretty confident that, that level of activity is going to be there for quite some time.
Operator:
Next is David Barden with Bank of America.
David W. Barden - BofA Merrill Lynch, Research Division:
I think that the confusion a little bit around the quarter and looking at the third quarter outlook, Jay, is just trying to square the 9% organic revenue growth with site rental gross margin guidance that suggests we might have another sequential downtick in the business. So -- and obviously, the implied full year guidance says we're going to tick back up in the fourth quarter. But if you could kind of help us waterfall the moving parts so we can see what's growing in the business and then where the headwinds are in more granular form down to the site rental gross margin level, that would be super helpful. And then, I guess, the second question I would have is relative to the full year 2014 AFFO of 13% growth outlook. How much of that year-over-year is coming from the AT&T portfolio acquisition?
Jay A. Brown:
Sure, on your first question. The movements quarter-to-quarter and the way we move the outlook, I think, for the balance of the year, we're certainly benefiting in terms of the outlook from FX and we raised -- slightly raised our expectation for FX based on actual levels that we saw during the second quarter. So that's the majority of the reason why we raised site rental revenue. The flow through of that, I made several comments, which are really driving that, too. One is that we had a purchased -- a noncash purchase adjustment related to our AT&T acquisition. That flows through those site rental gross margin numbers. Once we get down to EBITDA, we adjust that noncash item out, both at an adjusted EBITDA and AFFO. So that's a part of the consideration. And then the second part of the consideration, which wasn't -- was planned when we did the acquisition, is we're staffing up -- my comments around staffing and increase in people, those were anticipated both in our outlook, as well as in our underwriting model for the AT&T towers. And I think for the most part, we've gotten those costs in, or we'll have them in by the third quarter. So I think you correctly point out, the squeeze to the fourth quarter would suggest that there is movement upward in site rental gross margin. And so once we get all the costs into the run rate, which I think we'll have mostly done by the third quarter, you'll start to see those upward trends that we're used to. On the 13%, we bought the AT&T assets at basically a 5% yield going in. And when you consider our combination of use of debt, as well as stock, the transaction was slightly accretive by a couple of pennies in the calendar year 2014 or on a run-rate basis, if you want to think about it that way. So the contribution at the AFFO per share line would be relatively minimal from the acquisition, almost none. If you look at the nominal numbers in terms of site rental revenue growth and margin EBITDA and the absolute dollars of AFFO, obviously, it contributed meaningfully. But at the per-share line, there's very little impact from the acquisition and the way we financed it.
Operator:
And we'll go to Kevin Smithen with Macquarie Capital.
Unknown Analyst:
This is Will [ph] for Kevin. If there are no more large deals in the U.S. to do, you're going to have significant excess free cash flow and borrowing capacity in '15. Can you discuss a little more how you think about that capital allocation? And are you now open to deals in Brazil or other emerging markets?
W. Benjamin Moreland:
Yes, Will [ph], this is Ben. I'll take a crack at that. We've got a lot going on, as I talked about it in my comments. And I don't think it's a big stretch to see that we may find the ability to spend virtually all of our discretionary free cash flow right here at home around our core business. And in particular, as the pipeline around small cells grows, we're going to put a lot of money to work at very productive rates for carriers that we know and love. So that's really where our primary focus is today. We'll always look at something internationally, but my working assumption today is that we'll be priced out of anything out there. So I'm not assuming that we're going to do anything in Latin America or Brazil, specifically to your question. Just based almost solely on where I've seen assets trade, I don't think we're a player at those levels. So we've got a lot on our plate here going deeper in the U.S. market. As Jay mentioned, we've got 3,500 sites in terms of nodes on the pipeline to be built and that's growing. So we've got a lot to do with our capital right here at home.
Unknown Analyst:
And I have one follow-up. Is there any number that you give as kind of the addressable remaining sites that you would potentially purchase in the U.S.?
W. Benjamin Moreland:
I wouldn't speculate on that. I mean, we sort of look at things as they come up. And I think one of my sort of threshold comments that I think it's important to repeat -- and we'll always look at acquisitions as we have, obviously, over time. But the real value creation for Crown Castle going forward is around organic growth. And it all goes back to that slide in this deck today where we need to turn 17,000 towers from a 5% yield to a 15% yield over time. And that's the value driver in this business. Acquisitions, obviously become the platform to do that. You have to have the assets to do that. But we have the assets today, and we have our work cut out for us. As so we've got a full plate of value creation opportunities right here.
Operator:
And we'll go to Ric Prentiss with Raymond James.
Richard H. Prentiss - Raymond James & Associates, Inc., Research Division:
A couple of questions. Ben, you mentioned the 3,500 nodes that are in the pipeline. What kind of cost or CapEx should we be thinking about and timeline to kind of bring those online?
Jay A. Brown:
Ric, this is Jay. There's -- the 3,500, I would assume rough math, between $100,000, $120,000 per node to build those out. And typically the timeline from the time of executing the contracts -- and those 3,500, just to be clear in my comments, were all preconstruction phase. So we're in the design and permitting phase of that 3,500. That's probably an 18-month to 30-month timeline to get those on air.
Richard H. Prentiss - Raymond James & Associates, Inc., Research Division:
And then the 13,000 that you have, did you say some of those are under construction still?
Jay A. Brown:
Some of them are at the final stages of construction, correct.
Richard H. Prentiss - Raymond James & Associates, Inc., Research Division:
Okay. And then when you think about capital deployment, stock buyback is there. The stock has underperformed the other 2 public tower guys. So when you look at your multiple where you're trading at and your growth rate, how do you look at deploying small cell versus stock buyback? When does all of a sudden the acquisition of your own stock become more interesting possibly?
Jay A. Brown:
Ric, we always do this analysis on a relative basis. So where we see the opportunity and the returns in our share purchases are always compared at that point in time against other opportunities that we have. So in the case of -- specifically to your question, is we would evaluate small cell opportunities and our appetite to invest in small cells. They would be compared up against whatever the then multiple is on our equity and what we think the growth prospects are in our underlying business. And we're -- we constantly update that analysis. And the capital spend is discretionary. So at a point in time where we think the return is higher and -- for project A over project B, then we tend to move the capital around, aiming towards the investment that we think delivers the highest return on AFFO per share as a proxy for ultimately what our dividend capacity is going to be. So it's really a relative measure and we adjust it based on where we see the market opportunities.
Richard H. Prentiss - Raymond James & Associates, Inc., Research Division:
Small cell obviously is a very important part of your story, 6% of your business, growing 26% a year. Is there a time where that becomes a segment reported item also, as far as revenue, gross margins, contribution, et cetera?
Jay A. Brown:
There may be a day for that. I think as we operate the business today, it falls underneath our site rental leasing business. It all falls under our Chief Operating Officer and we operate the business very similar. It has very similar characteristics to the tower site in terms of the margin, the incremental margins that we see as we add additional tenants. So there may be a day for that. I won't preclude it from ever happening, but I think at the moment, it looks very similar to what towers does.
Richard H. Prentiss - Raymond James & Associates, Inc., Research Division:
And one more quick one if I could. A lot of people talking about Sprint Spark, the high-frequency buildouts, T-Mobile low band. Is there anything in your guidance yet for those? Have you seen anything in the services business as a leading indicator from Sprint going to that new phase and T-Mobile going into the new phase?
W. Benjamin Moreland:
Specifically with T-Mobile, that's more likely a 2015 event, is what it's looking to us. We're going to get pretty late in the year before we see a lot of that. So the answer to that would be no, until we give you the '15 guidance. With respect to Sprint, we are seeing a tremendous amount of service opportunity from Sprint related to the network vision upgrades and the 2.5 upgrades that you talked about. And it is also coming through to some degree in site rental revenue growth that's implied without being able to be specific. It's certainly implied and contributing to this overall 9% growth for the year.
Operator:
And we'll go to Phil Cusick with JPMorgan.
Philip Cusick - JP Morgan Chase & Co, Research Division:
So can you talk about services a little bit more? I mean, we've talked about services for a long time and usually you give guidance that, "Yes, this was a great quarter but we're pretty conservative going forward." Now it seems like you have a little bit better visibility. I mean, you talk about Sprint ramping up 2.5. But is there also -- are you moving to longer contracts that give you more real visibility when giving guidance? Is that how we should think about it? And then second, can you help us -- I'm sorry, go ahead, Jay.
W. Benjamin Moreland:
No, I'd -- no, this is Ben. Phil, I'd say, not so much longer contracts but a longer track record of success. We're frankly -- our teams are teaching me, really, that this is a business that they are extremely good at and have the capacity to continue to grow. And so maybe it's on my plate to say I have become more confident in our ability to continue to attract and win this business and execute for carriers. And we also look at it -- I think it's helpful to parse through how much of the growth is because of the growth in portfolio versus actually growth in the sort of per-site metrics. And that -- we're up about -- I guess over the last 4 years, up about 50% at a per-site level in terms of penetration. Even though the business is up much larger than that, it's more than doubled over the -- that same period, but a lot of that is because of the growth in the portfolio. So maybe it's an education of the CEO that our guys are really good at this, and this is going to remain a very key component of our story and what we do with carrier customers to provide that high touch experience and control our assets at the end of the day.
Philip Cusick - JP Morgan Chase & Co, Research Division:
Okay. And can you give us an idea of how much of your AFFO is coming from the services side?
Jay A. Brown:
I think what I would probably suggest that you would do, Phil, if you were going to try to estimate that, is I would take about 40% of the G&A, roughly, probably between 35% and 45% of the G&A, say, 40% of the G&A, and allocate it to the services business. So take your gross -- take our gross margin, if you want to do historical or forward looking, take the gross margin from services and subtract out the G&A and just use that as a contribution. I mean, obviously, if we think about leveraging the business, we would typically think about leveraging the site rental portion of the business, so you may have -- you may want to apply some portion of the debt or maybe not. There would not be any sustaining capital expenditures of any significant amount associated with that. So that's probably the best way to go about it.
Operator:
And next up is Amir Rozwadowski with Barclays.
Amir Rozwadowski - Barclays Capital, Research Division:
I wanted to follow up on the questions around some of the trajectory of carrier spending here, if I may. Certainly, it looks like, if we look at the CapEx numbers for the carriers that have reported, on a year-over-year basis they look fairly healthy. But clearly, there seems to be a bit of front-end loading with respect to their spending. Wanted to just touch base there because I understand there's various nuances when it comes to the very specific buckets in terms of where they're spending. But it seems as though you folks feel very comfortable in raising your outlook for the year in terms of the spending trajectory that you're seeing. Is that largely coming from densification initiatives that they're spending on? And what gives you that comfort that, that carries forward into 2015?
W. Benjamin Moreland:
Yes, Amir, this is Ben. That's a critical question and obviously, the driver -- the main driver in our business and confidence in the future. Without getting into specifically what each carrier is doing because we typically don't do that, we let you speak to them, as you can see from the Verizon call this week and AT&T that they're spending a whole lot of money
Amir Rozwadowski - Barclays Capital, Research Division:
And then if I may, I'll follow up. You folks are sort of uniquely positioned, particularly when it comes to the exposure on the small cell side. We've had a lot of discussions with the carriers in talking about the value between the macro and the small cell. But I think the general tone at least right now from what we're hearing is that from a macro site perspective, it still provides sort of the best bang for the buck, and continued investment on the macro site is necessary to deliver the types of speeds that they're promising over the next couple of years. Is that something that you folks agree with or -- would love to hear your thoughts on that front.
Jay A. Brown:
Absolutely. I agree with that. We own 40,000 towers. It's 94% of our revenue stream, and you’ve got to believe we agree with that. So the macro site is still the most efficient way to add capacity and the most expeditious way to add capacity in a market. What we're seeing on the small cell business, though, is an augmentation or a compliment to that where there's areas where the density of the urban footprint is such that a macro site really won't suffice, and they're needing to reuse that spectrum in a much smaller cell environment. And therefore, we're seeing an additional architecture emerge, as we've talked about for years, and it's emerging in a very big way now around distributed antenna systems or small cell euphemistically. Again, we use those sort of interchangeably. But essentially, small antenna's driven by fiber-fed electronics on light poles and street lamps and other things like that to augment where a macro cell is not sufficient or otherwise they need to reuse the spectrum in a much smaller environment in terms of a much smaller cell. But we absolutely endorse your first view, which is macro sites are the first solution, and that's why we own 40,000 of them.
Amir Rozwadowski - Barclays Capital, Research Division:
And if I may, just one last quick question. When we go back to the PCIA trade show last fall and also this past spring, I think one of the themes that emerged was that we're seeing a resurgence in actually new tower builds in the U.S. Clearly off of a base of very minimal incremental tower build, are you folks still experiencing that? Is it -- are you still seeing that in the marketplace?
Jay A. Brown:
We're seeing a few opportunities. I will tell you, it goes back to Jay's capital allocation discussion. We'll do them where we think we can make money. It's usually the place where new entrants enter the market at initial yields on the asset that, frankly, we've been uninterested in pursuing. So we may let others build some of those if those economics are not enticing to us. We're going to do some this year. Probably over the next 12 months, I would guess 100 or maybe 150, but not material to really -- to our results.
Operator:
Next, we'll go to Jonathan Schildkraut with Evercore.
Jonathan A. Schildkraut - Evercore Partners Inc., Research Division:
Two questions please. The first is, Ben, I'd love to get a breakdown of sort of the drivers of growth in the quarter. Historically, you've kind of given us some perspective of amendments versus new cell sites, and then what percent of that is falling under the MLA umbrellas that you have? And then my second question has to do with sort of the dividend growth story that Jay laid out, which I think is very compelling. And I was wondering if we might get a little perspective because you talked about the NOL roll off, but maybe we get a little perspective on what's happening with the DNA. By my records, you guys bought 7,000 towers or, I don't know, 17%, 18% of your portfolio in 1998, 1999. And I'm wondering how we might think about the DNA associated with that original sort of portfolio as we look at our projections and also try to understand some of the dividend distribution capabilities.
Jay A. Brown:
Sure, on the first question around where we are with leasing, it's very similar to what we expected for the full year. There was about 10% of the activity that we're seeing that's following under the presold MLAs that we negotiated several years ago. So there's very little of the activity that's falling under that -- those presold agreements. In terms of the activity that we're seeing across all of the assets, we're seeing in the neighborhood of about 3/4 to 80% of the activity coming from new tenant installations, and the balance of it coming from amendments to existing sites. We've seen that activity, I would point out, across all of the carriers and all of the portfolios, including the 2 most recent purchases that we've had, where we're already seeing some amendment activity that's driving site rental revenue growth across the portfolio. So I know we've talked about that some in the past, and that's -- it's coming about in about the same magnitude as we had expected going into the balance of the year. Your question about the net operating losses and the depreciation that we see from a tax standpoint, the tax depreciation is faster on an asset purchase than what it is for the GAAP statement. And so as we have gone through the process and you rolled back all the way to our original acquisitions, and then as you think about the impact to us from the more recent acquisitions, the 2 recent acquisitions that we've done were in the form of prepaid leases. So our payments out from a tax standpoint, those are reflected against the cost to the asset or if you want to think about it as DNA costs. Those are reflected across the term of those leases over 20-plus years. So there's minimal impact to our NOLs as a result of those 2 acquisitions. A simple way of thinking about it is we bought the assets on a 5% yield, which, if the cost is over 20 years, then basically day 1, there's no NOL that's building, and so each dollar of revenue and, therefore, margin that we add, is going to effectively go against our net operating loss and reduce the amount of NOL that we've built over a period of time. So as I look out over the next 5 years, I certainly believe, by 2020, given the pace that we're on with growth, I think we will exhaust that NOL by then. It may be -- depending on how the dynamics work out, it may be a year to 2 years prior to that 2020 date, just depending upon the flow of things like prepaid rent and other things that may affect that net operating loss. But I think for modeling purposes, without getting into much more detail than what I just walked through, I think probably the best way to think about it is us exhausting it somewhere in that 2019, 2020 time frame if the growth rate continues at the current pace. And then if it accelerates our decelerates, we'll kind of update that with you.
Operator:
And we'll now go to Imari Love with Morningstar.
Imari Love - Morningstar Inc., Research Division:
Just quickly back on small nodes, you said it was a 6% of site rental rev. Can we get a gauge of how the returns on invested capital compare relative to returns you're seeing on the macro sites? So you mentioned that the macro sites over 10 years, it's around 15%; around 5% on the early end of that. Can you give us a gauge of where small nodes fit on that spectrum?
W. Benjamin Moreland:
Sure, happy to do that. And that's really part of the enthusiasm that we share for that business. As I mentioned, if you think about the original acquisition of size where we spent $1 billion on the NextG acquisition at about a 4% yield, we have borrowed through that to the point today where the entire sort of run rate of business is about a 6% yield on invested capital. So you can then infer that the incremental business we've gotten past the acquisition is substantially above that. As we go forward, our expectation and what we're seeing is that the returns on this business we expect will exceed over 10 years what we've seen in the tower business. And we are obviously very pleased with the results we've posted on the legacy assets, as we talked about in the earlier part of this call. But we're on a trajectory today with small cells and the anticipated co-location that'll happen in these very dense and attractive markets where we're building these systems, that we think we'll frankly exceed by a significant margin what we've accomplished on the tower sites.
Operator:
We'll now go to Batya Levi with UBS.
Batya Levi - UBS Investment Bank, Research Division:
A couple of follow-ups. Looking out to your estimates for revenue from existing customers, it looks like you increased your projections for the next 4 years of about 2.5% to 2%. Can you help us reconcile why we didn't see a similar increase in the site rental outlook for 2014, and how we can think about that versus the nonpercent organic growth that you're seeing today? Does that suggest that we should be expecting a similar organic growth for 2015? And the second question I had is, as you go through the expected churn from iDEN, what's your experience with Sprint's renewal activity for these towers? I also noticed that you slightly lowered your expectations for rental revenue from Sprint at time of renewals for future periods. Can you talk about what drove that?
Jay A. Brown:
Sure. On the first question, you will see those tables over the long period of time, the increases we have leasing. So those tables reflect actual leases under contract, and we're not going to forecast that table for the forecasted growth during the calendar year. So as quarters pass, we would assume that the next 12-month forward or 2 years forward, the revenue numbers in that table will increase commensurate with the growth that we actually achieved during the previous quarter. So that table is not -- it's intended to be forward looking in terms of the contracts that we have on the books today, but we don't adjust those contracts based on our expectation for growth over the subsequent period or multiple periods. With regards to Sprint, some of that is going to be the impact of the leasing they did in the quarter, as well as the decommissionings that actually happened in the quarter, as well as any extensions that we saw on those leases. And those can come from simple things like if they amend a site, and this would be true for all of the carriers. There may be an amendment on a site and they may take out a lease over a longer period of time and it may adjust that table. So in all likelihood, as you're poring into kind of that detail, it's a combination of the leases that happened in the quarter, any nonrenewals that happened in the quarter, as well as there could be extensions most likely related to things like an amendment on an individual site.
Operator:
And we'll now go to Michael Bowen with Pacific Crest.
Michael G. Bowen - Pacific Crest Securities, Inc., Research Division:
I wanted to touch on -- back on Slide 11, I noticed that the yield increase for the T-Mobile and AT&T assets, it looks like you're basically targeting tenant additions, but I also wanted to know if there's anything assumed in there with regard to amendment or escalation activity. And then with regard to that, can you also -- I apologize if I missed this, but can you give us any idea of how long you may think it will take from a time standpoint to possibly move from that 5% to the 15% levels?
W. Benjamin Moreland:
As soon as we possibly can would be about all I can answer to the second one. But in terms of -- if you look at the historical legacy sites, that $90,000 of revenue per tower obviously includes amendments over time, as well as escalations over time, which all goes into that roll-up of that number. We've elected to give you a simple metric, not the only metric, but a simple metric around tenancy because that seems to be helpful for people to be able to quantify to kind of get it around their -- in their head about how many tenants per tower and then what the opportunity is. But over time, obviously, existing tenants and new tenants amend, as well as escalate, and that all contributes into that overall 15% yield on invested capital on those legacy sites. And again, to your timing question, as soon as we possibly can. That's about all I can tell you.
Michael G. Bowen - Pacific Crest Securities, Inc., Research Division:
Well, yes. And with regard to that, I noticed that the left-hand column, obviously, you owned and operated for greater than 10 years. Getting the 15%, has that been somewhat linear or more parabolic?
Jay A. Brown:
It's over -- the average term that we've owned those assets is about 14 years. It's been fairly linear over that period of time. And I think one of the dynamics, Michael, when we talk about the business and there was an earlier question about do we see activity flowing in the first half or the second half of the year. I think our observation would be that while it is common for people to look at our business and try to find inflection points where maybe the carriers are going to spend a lot more capital or spend a lot less capital, as we look at our business over a long period of time, the capital spend on our sites has been relatively consistent within a relatively small band of up or down. And so as we look at our business, we are left prone to try to find the inflection point and look more for themes. And the theme to us is that the carriers are seeing tremendous growth from data, and that is a long-term runway that we think is going to continue to drive site rental revenue and, ultimately, AFFO per share, and that's how we've made the bulk of these investments over the last couple of years.
W. Benjamin Moreland:
The only thing I'd add to that is, while it may be tempting to think that those legacy assets are "full and done." As we continue to parse through our portfolio and look at it every quarter, those legacy assets continue to lease at a very attractive rate and add additional revenue and, obviously, escalation off of a bigger number. So they continue to grow and more than pay for their -- pay their way around here, and that continues.
Michael G. Bowen - Pacific Crest Securities, Inc., Research Division:
And one other thing, I think you mentioned today, as far as back at PCIA in the spring that there were some portfolios, I believe you said, at that time in Europe where some infrastructure funds had been outbidding yourself and perhaps some of the others. When you look at these portfolios of assets, can you help us understand where the disconnect or, maybe not the disconnect, but where the sticking point is, where the difference in methodology when you value those portfolios versus some of the others who are obviously paying more?
W. Benjamin Moreland:
Yes. Obviously, I don't know what's behind other's view. We can only speak for ourselves. We come at it and look at what is the co-location opportunity in those markets. How much capital will the carriers actually spend in those market. That was our attempt in that one page today to talk about the relative scale opportunity in the U.S. versus emerging markets or either -- even some other developed countries. The U.S. continues to just be enormous by comparison. And so we look at the opportunity around lease up. We also -- we look at the sort of inherent cost of capital and risk-adjusted return that you need to apply to an asset when you send a wire transfer into a different currency on that one day. That's not dollar cost averaging in, you're long that day but with very little variable input into the cost structure of our business. So it's -- I liken it sometimes to find power plants in foreign countries, you're sort of long that day. So you have to put up a cost of capital differential into the currency at just sheerly from difference in currency risk, and local borrowing rates in local countries are pretty good proxy to start. So we put all that in the pot and walk through it. And our result at the end of the day is we have found that either buying your own stock or buying assets in the U.S. market tend to, we think, provide a higher risk-adjusted return on invested capital. Others differ and disagree, but that's our view. And from time to time, that causes us the pass on what would initially be a very accretive acquisition, but we don't think that's the right sort of barometer for whether the acquisition is a long-term value creating for the company.
Operator:
Our next question will come from Colby Synesael with Cowen and Company.
Colby Synesael - Cowen and Company, LLC, Research Division:
Two questions if I may. The first one, as you ramp up integrating the AT&T portfolio and then obviously you've had the T-Mobile portfolio for now just over 1.5 years, is it fair for us to assume as we go into the back of this year and then increasingly into 2015 -- and I'm not asking for explicit guidance by any means. But is it fair to assume that we should start to see new leasing activity accelerate from this aspect alone? Just curious with that. And then the second question is just on MLAs. It seems like the logic for setting up those MLAs a few years ago seems to have now kind of run its course, at least for some of the carriers. What's the likelihood of renewing MLAs perhaps with different terms both on your end, as well as on the carriers' end, and when could we potentially see that happen?
Jay A. Brown:
Okay, on the first question, Colby, when you say -- when you ask a question about accelerating new leasing activity, certainly, on a consolidated basis, we would expect that as a result of integrating these assets, we will have more nominal dollars of new leasing activity coming in. As you look at our supplement and the comments that I made around Organic Site Rental Revenue growth, we have a base that is consistent. So maybe a common term might be something like same-tower sales would be the closest thing to have our Organic Site Rental Revenue number. As the AT&T towers get into a 1-year vintage, if you will, they will go into that math. And I'm not sure I would suggest to you that our organic growth rates will be higher as a result of that because you'll have a then larger base upon which we'll be growing. But I think, certainly, on a nominal basis, we would expect that the leasing activity will pick up at a consolidated level as we have those assets online and we're performing off the full suite of Crown services and leasing activities across the larger portfolio.
Colby Synesael - Cowen and Company, LLC, Research Division:
On the MLAs?
W. Benjamin Moreland:
I mean, just to punctuate that, the 9% organic growth, if that opportunity exists in the market as we certainly believe it does and that continues from -- on a multiyear track, we'll be just fine. In terms of your second question on MLAs, Colby, we'll look at it as facts and circumstances dictate as things come up, as we always do. And we try to be economically rational and make the right decision on what's going to result in the best outcome for us and the most expedient way to handle the amendment activity or desire of the carrier to get on the site. So that goes together but it's -- we'll look at it facts dependent and I really wouldn't have any prediction today as to where that will take us in the future.
Jay A. Brown:
I think we would look at the ones that we've done today and feel like we cut very good deals and think we did better than the we otherwise would have in most cases, so...
W. Benjamin Moreland:
We do back check that, and so far so good. We're very pleased with the outcome there.
Jay A. Brown:
We're all living with, today, the flip side of the arrangement that we made with Sprint years ago related to the iDEN decommissioning that they indicated was coming to us. And we saw benefit on the upside from the early days of network vision, and today we look at that run rate and its about 6% roughly above where we were going into the process. So we're feeling in the results today and will next year, the downside of it, the decommissioning side. But on a net basis, the result of that agreement was up about 6% from where it would have been otherwise. So we do backward look at each of these that we've made and feel like in each case, we've done really well. And I think also from a carrier perspective, their goal in doing those was to accelerate and speed up the process in which they've gotten on our towers and I think if you were to ask them, I think they would indicate to you it certainly accomplished their goal as well.
Operator:
And we'll take the next question from Jonathan Chaplin with New Street.
Jonathan Chaplin - New Street Research LLP:
So it seems like the cash -- tower cash flow margins have been declining sort of steadily over the course for last year or so. Is the pressure all been a function of the investments you're making for the T-Mobile and AT&T towers or are there other factors, depressing margins there as well? And can you give us a sense for how quickly you expect margins to reinflate now that you're sort of at the end of the integration process with AT&T?
Jay A. Brown:
Yes, Jonathan. Yes, the decrease that you've seen in our tower cash flow margins have all been a result of the acquisitions that we've made. We've acquired 2 portfolios that had respectively 1.6 and 1.7 tenants per tower with T-Mobile and AT&T, so the margins on those assets were significantly lower than the legacy towers that we had that had margins in the high 70% range and 3 tenants per tower. So as we put those lower-leased assets into the portfolio, it lowered our overall margins. I think most of that is basically in the run rate, as I mentioned in my comments, both on the expense side and the revenue side at this point. And so absent any other acquisitions, I think we'll go back on a pace where you see expanding margins on the go forward, all driven by the amount of top line revenue growth that we have.
Operator:
And that question will come from Tim Horan with Oppenheimer.
Timothy K. Horan - Oppenheimer & Co. Inc., Research Division:
Ben, do you think the networks are keeping up with the demand or is utilization increasing or decreasing? And is there much variability between the different carriers at this point? And then secondly, maybe can you talk about it, is there much shift in CapEx going on at this point? Like are we basically done with the fiber buildouts and a lot of the incremental CapEx is going to be more success-based antennas or lawn carts? Any thoughts there would be great.
W. Benjamin Moreland:
Sure, in terms of keeping up with demand, just as a casual observer and listening to carriers' calls, I would say no. And from watching their behavior, where they're going very, very aggressively towards adding capacity, you have to conclude no, they're not keeping up. And that's a good thing for us. It's a good thing for them, as a matter of fact, because there's more ARPU out there to -- as the pie grows to argue over. And so that's a good dynamic as the entire industry grows but just given the behavior and the speed and the pace in activity that we see, I honestly don't remember it being any busier than it is right now for us. So -- and that goes to really everything that we see, whether it be services activity, leasing activity. Obviously, we have this little integration going on, which adds a little level of complexity for what we see. And then the growing and building small cell side of the house, we are as busy as we've ever been. So I would have to conclude that, that's going to continue for some time and is fundamentally a result of all of us, as consumers, continuing to eat a lot of bandwidth. In terms of it being level smooth between all the different carriers, I talked about that a little earlier. It is a little bit different depending upon where the carrier is in their LTE deployment cycle, and with Verizon and AT&T being further ahead than Sprint and T-Mobile. But that doesn't give us really any pause because I think the dynamic of the spend to capture that incremental dollar is true with all of the carriers, and we fully expect them to come back and add density to their networks over time. We're already seeing that, just very beginnings with Sprint; we expect to see that with T-Mobile. We're seeing some of those early conversations. And then as I mentioned earlier in my comments, that's very aggressively happening with Verizon and AT&T right now.
Timothy K. Horan - Oppenheimer & Co. Inc., Research Division:
And then on -- any shifts in CapEx spending?
W. Benjamin Moreland:
No. I mean, I think we see this as sort of a continuous program from -- for the foreseeable future; less sort of cycles and swings up and down, and more of a steady pursuit of more and more bandwidth and capacity in these networks as -- whether you're talking machine-to-machine or tablet growth. All these things that are expanding the usage of the network and expanding the revenue opportunity is a very good dynamic for our business and for the carriers, and that's what's happening right now.
Timothy K. Horan - Oppenheimer & Co. Inc., Research Division:
And I guess lastly, you've been doing 17% AFFO growth per year. This year's a little bit below, too many acquisitions. Do you think you can get back to the 17% level on a sustainable basis?
W. Benjamin Moreland:
Well, I don't know about that. But you'd have to at least give me credit for the dividend this year. So the 13% would really be 15% if you added the dividend. So we think that's pretty good given the acquisitions we've done and everything we're working on and the Sprint churn headwind that we had this year. So if you were to adjust for the sort of the odd nature of the iDEN churn, that number would be actually be 16% this year, plus the dividend of 2%. So look, you can tell from the gross activity that we're pretty excited about what we see, and we got a lot going on. With that, I think we'll wrap up the call. I know there's a -- it's a very busy earnings week for everybody. I appreciate you jumping on the call with us now for 70 minutes, and look forward to seeing you at some conferences in the fall and on the third quarter call. Thank you.
Operator:
And thank you very much. That does conclude our conference for today. I'd like to thank everyone for your participation, and have a great day.
Executives:
Son Nguyen - Vice President of Corporate Finance Jay A. Brown - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President and Treasurer W. Benjamin Moreland - Chief Executive Officer, President and Director
Analysts:
Richard H. Prentiss - Raymond James & Associates, Inc., Research Division David W. Barden - BofA Merrill Lynch, Research Division Jonathan Atkin - RBC Capital Markets, LLC, Research Division Kevin R. Smithen - Macquarie Research Amir Rozwadowski - Barclays Capital, Research Division Philip Cusick - JP Morgan Chase & Co, Research Division Simon Flannery - Morgan Stanley, Research Division Colby Synesael - Cowen and Company, LLC, Research Division Timothy K. Horan - Oppenheimer & Co. Inc., Research Division Batya Levi - UBS Investment Bank, Research Division
Operator:
Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Crown Castle International Q1 2014 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] I would like to remind everyone that this conference call is being recorded. I will now turn the presentation over to Son Nguyen, Vice President of Corporate Finance. Please go ahead, Mr. Nguyen.
Son Nguyen:
Thank you, John, and good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us today as we review our first quarter 2014 results. With me on the call this morning are Ben Moreland, Crown Castle's Chief Executive Officer; and Jay Brown, Crown Castle's Chief Financial Officer. To aid the discussion, we have posted supplemental materials in the Investors section of our website at crowncastle.com, which we will refer to throughout the call this morning. The conference call will contain forward-looking statements, which are subject to certain risks, uncertainties and assumptions, and actual results may vary materially from those expected. Information about potential factors, which could affect our results, is available in the press release and Risk Factors sections of our company's SEC filings. Our statements are made as of today, April 24, 2014, and we assume no obligation to update any forward-looking statements. In addition, today's call includes discussions of certain non-GAAP financial measures. Tables reconciling such non-GAAP financial measures are available in the supplemental information package and slide presentation posted in the Investors section of the company's website at crowncastle.com. With that, I'll turn the call over to Jay.
Jay A. Brown:
Thanks, Son, and good morning, everyone. We executed another great quarter in Q1 2014, exceeding the high end of our previously issued outlook for site rental revenue, site rental gross margin, adjusted EBITDA and AFFO. As you can see on Slide 3, the strong results from site rental and network services, coupled with our recent financing activities, allow us to increase our outlook for full year 2014. In addition to achieving great results in Q1, we had a very productive quarter on many other fronts. First, at the beginning of the year, we achieved a significant milestone as we began operating as a REIT, and subsequently paid our first common stock dividend in March. Further, since the beginning of the year, we have refinanced $2.6 billion of debt, extending our average debt maturity and lowering our overall cost of debt. Also during the quarter, we made significant progress integrating the AT&T towers, the integration of which we expect to be substantially complete by the fall of this year. Turning to Slide 4. During the first quarter, site rental revenue increased from $615 million to $747 million, representing a year-over-year growth of 21%. On an organic basis, before nonrenewals and adjusting for the impact of acquisitions, FX, material onetime items and straight-line accounting, site rental revenues increased by $47 million, an increase of approximately 8% compared to the same period a year ago. Excluded from the organic growth rate is the onetime benefit of $5 million from a customer contract termination payment from Revol Wireless during the quarter. The contract related to site leases for Revol, a regional carrier in Ohio that ceased operations earlier this year. Revol previously generated annual site rental revenue of approximately $4 million. Excluding the benefit of this onetime item, we were at the high end of our Q1 outlook for site rental revenues. Of our approximately 8% organic growth, the cash escalations in our customer contracts contributed approximately 3%, and new leasing activity contributed approximately 5%. This new leasing activity was driven almost entirely by the Big 4 wireless carriers, with 85% of the growth coming from new tenant installations and the remaining portion from amendments to existing tenants. As a part of the new leasing activity, we are continuing to see very strong demand for our small cell networks. At the end of the first quarter, we had nearly 12,000 small cell nodes and over 6,000 miles of fiber. The contribution to site rental revenue from our small cell networks is up approximately 20% year-over-year. For the quarter, nonrenewal of tenant leases reaching their contractual term end dates, inclusive of Sprint's iDEN decommissioning, was in line with our expectations. Moving on to Slide 5. Site rental gross margin increased $81 million to $519 million, up 19% from the first quarter of 2013. Site rental gross margin percentage is lower by approximately 175 basis points year-over-year as we closed on the AT&T tower transaction, which had an average tenancy of 1.7 tenants and, therefore, lower margins when compared to our legacy assets with approximately 3 tenants. However, the organic incremental margins were in excess of 90%, at the high end of our historical average and reflective of the high operating leverage of the tower business model. In the absence of additional acquisitions, we expect to see our site rental gross margins expand as carriers add equipment to our sites. Adjusted EBITDA increased 20%, driven by the inclusion of the AT&T towers, an increase in site rental gross margin and strong performance of our network services business, and offset to a small degree by increased G&A, which was up about 8% year-over-year. This increase in G&A includes the effect of increased staffing to manage our T-Mobile and AT&T tower transactions, which increased our tower portfolio by nearly 75%, and the significant growth of our small cell networks. AFFO was $349 million compared to $263 million from a year ago, an increase of 33%. On a per share basis, AFFO was up 17%, increasing from $0.90 per share to $1.05 per share. As mentioned in our press release last night, we have updated our AFFO definition to reflect the benefit of prepaid rent from customers over the life of customer contracts rather than the period in which the prepaid rent was received. We believe the change will enhance comparability between us and our tower peers as we highlight the significant and growing cash flow of our -- our business produces. Obviously, the change to the AFFO definition does not change our cash flow profile or our investment capacity. Under the previous definition of AFFO, we would have exceeded the midpoint of our Q1 outlook by approximately $25 million. With respect to how the change in the definition is likely to affect our AFFO results, our AFFO will be lower initially because the cash received from prepaid rent in the current period is significantly greater than the amortization of prepaid rent received in prior periods. This is primarily due to the fact that we have increased our portfolio of towers and small cell networks significantly over the last several years. Assuming no additional acquisitions and similar levels of leasing activity, we would expect the amount of prepaid rent and amortization of prepaid rent to converge over time. Turning to investments and financing activities as shown on Slide 6. Since the beginning of the year, we refinanced or extended the maturities on $2.6 billion of our debt. In the first quarter of 2014, we extended the maturities on $1.8 billion of our Term Loan B by 2 years. Further, earlier this month, we closed on an 8-year $850 million senior notes offering with a coupon of 4.875%. Proceeds from the offering will be used to refinance $800 million of existing debt that has a weighted average coupon of approximately 6%. After giving effect to the aforementioned notes offering, our current weighted average cost of debt stands at 4.2%, with a weighted average maturity of 6 years. Our total net debt to last quarter annualized adjusted EBITDA is 5.4x, and adjusted EBITDA to cash interest expense is 4.2x. We expect to continue to de-lever through growth in adjusted EBITDA, trending towards approximately 5x debt to adjusted EBITDA. During the first quarter, we invested $143 million in capital expenditures. These capital expenditures included $20 million in our land lease purchase program. During the quarter, we extended 340 land leases on our sites by an average of approximately 26 years. The extension activity impacted consolidated recurring cash ground lease expense by approximately 20 basis points. Additionally, we purchased land beneath approximately 130 of our towers during the quarter. As of today, we own or control, for more than 20 years, land under towers representing 72% of our site rental gross margin. In fact, today, approximately 1/3 of our site rental gross margin is generated from towers on land that we own. Where we have ground leases, the average term remaining on our ground leases is approximately 30 years. Our proactive approach to achieving long-term control of the ground beneath our sites is core to our business as we look to protect our assets and control our largest operating expense. We have provided more information regarding our ground interest activity in our supplemental information package that we referenced last night in our press release. Of the remaining capital expenditures, we invested $11 million on sustaining capital expenditures and $111 million on revenue-generating capital expenditures, the latter consisting of $75 million on existing sites and $36 million on the construction of new sites, primarily small cell construction activity. We had no meaningful acquisitions of towers in the first quarter. Further, during the quarter, we paid our first quarterly common stock dividend of $0.35 per share or $117 million in aggregate. Also during the quarter, we purchased $21 million of common shares at an average price of $74 per share. Moving on to the 2014 outlook as shown on Slide 7. Based on our first quarter results, our expectations of continued strong activity from the carriers for the remainder of the year and our recent financing activities, we've increased our full year 2014 outlook for site rental revenues, site rental gross margin, adjusted EBITDA and AFFO by $11 million, $9 million, $26 million and $28 million, respectively, at the midpoint. As shown on Slide 8, the midpoint of our 2014 outlook for site rental revenues implies growth of 19% or approximately $480 million compared to full year 2013. On an organic basis, before nonrenewals, our outlook implies revenue growth of approximately 9% year-over-year at the midpoint. The 9% is comprised of approximately 5% from new leasing activity and approximately 4% from escalations on existing customer lease contracts. Compared to the first quarter of 2014, our outlook assumes a 15% increase in quarterly new leasing activity for the remainder of 2014. Our 2014 outlook for site rental revenues also includes the negative impact of nonrenewals of approximately 2% of site rental revenues. Approximately half of the nonrenewal impact is expected to come from Sprint's decommissioning of their legacy iDEN network and the remainder is expected to come from typical nonrenewal activity. Based on Sprint's stated intention to decommission their iDEN network and our contractual terms at Sprint, we believe approximately 3% of our run rate site rental revenues will be impacted by the iDEN network decommissioning. This iDEN leases have effective term end dates spread evenly throughout 2014 and 2015. With respect to 2014 adjusted EBITDA, our increased outlook implies 16% growth year-over-year and reflects the previously mentioned increase in site rental gross margin and higher expected services gross margin contribution. While the increases in staffing cost are a headwind to this growth in the short term, we believe the investment will allow us to maximize and execute on our leading portfolio of assets over the long run. As presented on Slide 9, after adjusting our previously provided full year 2014 outlook for AFFO from January for the updated definition, on an apples-to-apples basis, our new outlook increases AFFO guidance by $28 million at the midpoint. Our increased AFFO reflects the increase in our outlook for adjusted EBITDA and from interest savings from our recent financing activities, offset by an increase in sustaining capital expenditures related to additional office facilities. On a per share basis, our 2014 outlook implies AFFO growth of 11% before considering the benefit of the investment of our cash flows and after the 1% drag from additional office facility CapEx. For the full year 2014, we believe we will generate $425 million to $525 million in discretionary investment capacity. I'd like to spend just a minute to describe the sequential impact to the second quarter of 2014 from certain onetime or seasonal items. Our second quarter growth is impacted by the previously mentioned onetime $5 million benefit from Revol's termination payment in Q1. Additionally, as is typical when going from the first quarter to the second quarter and warmer weather, repair and maintenance quarter-to-quarter is higher by $3 million. Further, on an AFFO basis, sustaining capital expenditures for the second quarter is expected to be higher by $11 million, which includes the additional office facilities I spoke to a moment ago versus the first quarter of 2014. Moving back to the high level, consistent with our full year outlook, the positive industry backdrop, which Ben will speak to, really supports our belief that there is a long runway of site rental revenue growth as the wireless operators continue to expand and improve their networks. Given the high operating leverage of the business, we believe our organic site rental revenue growth can translate into meaningful organic AFFO growth before considering the benefit of investments that we can make from the significant and growing cash flows generated by our business. These investments include acquisitions; construction of new sites, including small cell networks; land purchases; and the purchases of our own security that we believe will further enhance long-term AFFO per share growth. Our longstanding approach to capital allocation, combined with strong execution, has driven significant growth in AFFO per share, which we believe is a good measure of our ability to pay and grow our dividends over a long -- over the long term. Importantly, we believe we will be able to produce this growth without increasing the risk profile of our business. In summary, we are focused on total shareholder returns comprised of growth in dividends and AFFO per share. As we have said previously, we expect to grow our dividends to common shareholders by at least 15% per year over the next 5 years and continue to see significant growth in AFFO per share. Lastly, before I turn the call over to Ben, I'd like to point out that we have posted to our website, along with our earnings release, a new supplemental information package. The supplemental information package is a part of our goal to continue to enhance our communication and disclosure practices. Many of the metrics I spoke to today are reconciled or presented in further detail on the supplemental package. We believe the supplemental information package will be a useful tool that will assist investors in understanding and evaluating our business model and overall performance. And with that, I'm pleased to turn the call over to Ben.
W. Benjamin Moreland:
Thanks, Jay, and thanks to all of you for joining us on this call on this busy reporting morning. As Jay just walked you through, the first quarter was another great quarter, exceeding the high end of outlook for site rental revenue, site rental gross margin, adjusted EBITDA and AFFO. Given the level of activity that we are seeing, we are excited about the balance of the year. Our current application pipeline leads us to expect new leasing activity per quarter for the remainder of the year to be approximately 15% higher compared to the level we experienced in the first quarter 2014. This level of activity, combined with our excellent first quarter results, allows us to raise our 2014 outlook for site rental revenue, site rental gross margin, adjusted EBITDA and AFFO. As all 4 major wireless carriers continue to invest in their networks for LTE and capacity enhancement, I'm excited about the prospects of sustainable long-term growth over the next several years. This is particularly true given our position as the leading shared wireless infrastructure provider in the U.S., nearly 40,000 towers and 12,000 small cell nodes in operation. As shown on Slide 10, we have a long track record of execution and growth through various cycles, whether it be macroeconomic or industry-specific cycles. Through this period of 14 years, we have delivered strong organic growth, as well as growth through disciplined capital allocation. As you can see from these results, we are committed to a long-term focus that delivers significant value over time. With our industry-leading portfolio of assets and capabilities in the U.S., we expect to continue this track record in the most dynamic growth market for wireless. Over the last 2 years, we've invested approximately $9 billion in acquisitions, executing on our strategic objectives to expand our U.S. portfolio of towers and small cells. Turning to Slide 11. We believe that these recent acquisitions provide us with opportunities to grow shareholder value through execution, similar to the acquisitions we have made in the past. Quite simply, our strategy is to replicate the performance of our legacy assets with our recent acquisitions. Tower assets that we have owned and operated for more than 10 years currently yield 15% on total invested capital, representing significant shareholder value creation when compared to the initial yields at the time of purchase of approximately 4% to 5%, similar to our recent acquisitions. I believe our strategy will continue to prove successful, given our investment in our people, processes and assets, which are focused on enabling carriers to meet the demand for wireless services. We believe our recent acquisitions of small cell networks and towers were well-timed as network investments by carriers continue unabated. As carriers continue to invest in their networks, consumers and businesses have quickly absorbed the capacity added by the carriers. Consumers and businesses continue to innovate and develop new applications and devices that will take advantage of the mobile Internet. This has led to a reinforcing cycle of investment by the carriers and increased usage by the end consumers. During 2013, Cisco's annual report on mobile data traffic reported that U.S. mobile data consumption grew 75% over 2012. Cisco projects that between 2013 and 2018, mobile data traffic, even after accounting for Wi-Fi offloading, will grow at a compounded annual growth rate of 50% or an 8x increase in the next 5 years. This growth in usage can be seen in all of our everyday lives. The convenience and accessibility of mobile devices made smartphones and tablets the dominant channel for Internet consumption and changing the way we live, work and play. For businesses, mobile Internet is changing the way companies operate, innovate and compete. There are mountains of positive statistics and trends about mobile Internet usage, and I'd like to highlight just a few. From an entertainment perspective, a majority of consumers believe mobile devices will replace traditional televisions as the most common way to consume television shows and movies in the next 8 years. A separate survey confirms that this trend is well underway with smartphones' screen time already outpacing TV screen time today. Further, Cisco reports that video already represents 50% of mobile Internet traffic and is projected to continue to grow at a 55% compound annual growth rate over the next 5 years. As it relates to health, 95 million Americans are currently using mobile phones as health tools. The mobile health industry or mHealth is projected to grow 15x by 2018 to reach $20 billion of value as wireless technology has proven to increase efficiency and improve results. Remote patient monitoring is projected to save Americans $36 billion in health care cost by 2018. And terms such as the Internet of Things or the Connected Life have been coined to describe the machine-to-machine connectivity that we're already seeing. Today, there are approximately 10 billion connected devices, ranging from GPS location devices to thermostats to smart meters. This number is projected to increase to 30 billion devices by 2020. Cisco further projects that mobile data traffic created by these devices will increase 68-fold by 2018, driven by increased penetration of technologies such as connected cars and smart-wearable devices. To meet this growing demand, carriers are investing in their networks. And to effectively build out their networks, carriers need economic incentive, spectrum and infrastructure like we provide. When it comes to economic incentive, we believe the U.S. market has the largest and the fastest-growing wireless market in the world, provides a landscape for the ability of the wireless carriers to make profitable investment its most apparent, and barriers to entry remain high. As shown on Slide 12, the U.S. market is uniquely attractive due to its relative size and robustness compared to other markets. Strong unit economics with average ARPUs greater than $50 a month, combined with high correlation between network investment and low consumer churn, has led carriers to continue to upgrade their networks to improve network quality, increase capacity and add functionality in order to remain competitive and grow. As a result, we would expect current network upgrade and densification activity by the 4 major wireless carriers to continue for quite some time. On the spectrum front, there's approximately 600 megahertz of spectrum in the hands of carriers and potential entrants, including LightSquared, DISH and FirstNet. Of this 600 megahertz, approximately 350 megahertz is actually deployed and is currently being used by consumers. That leaves another approximately 250 megahertz to be deployed depending upon the market. Some of this spectrum, including Sprint's 2.5, T-Mobile's 700 megahertz and Verizon's AWS, represent near-term to intermediate-term opportunities for Crown Castle. Other spectrum, primarily held by LightSquared, DISH and FirstNet, represents longer-term opportunities. Additionally, the FCC has proposed freeing up another approximately 150 megahertz over the next several years. It's possible that over the next decade, the total amount of spectrum deployed could double, a positive for Crown Castle as additional spectrum has historically led to additional equipment being deployed on our sites. Before I turn the call over for questions, I think it's instructive to compare the current 4G deployment cycle with the 3G deployment cycle that we're familiar with. 3G was initially deployed in 2002 and continued through 2009 to 2010 time frame when 4G deployments began. Based on the 3G cycle, we believe that we are still in the early innings of the 4G investment cycle. Verizon and AT&T initially led the way with 4G, and currently, they are focused on network densification, having addressed coverage in the early part of their rollouts. Sprint and T-Mobile are fast on their heels and soon will finish their initial coverage buildout. If history and Verizon and AT&T's experience holds, we expect that Sprint and T-Mobile will soon be focusing on network densification, and we are already seeing signs of those conversations happening -- that would be in the 2015 time frame. Given the revolutionary nature of 4G, we have reasons to believe that the 4G LTE deployment cycle will be even longer than the 3G cycle. And in order to meet Cisco's projected 8x increase in mobile data demand, we believe carriers will continue to invest over a multiyear period. This multiyear deployment cycle gives us confidence in the long runway of sustained organic revenue growth. Our team has a tremendous track record of execution, giving me a lot of confidence it will be able to leverage this unprecedented level of activity. With nearly 40,000 towers and 12,000 small cells in the U.S., as I previously mentioned, I believe we are well poised to continue to benefit greatly from these macro trends as we have in the past. In the near term, our team is working diligently to integrate the AT&T towers into our portfolio so that we're able to deliver a Crown quality customer service experience across these assets as soon as possible. We have made significant strides to that end in the first several months since closing. And while it's early, our operating results are off to a good start across these new assets. So in wrapping up and moving towards questions, our strategy remains unchanged. We are focused on adding site rental revenue across our portfolio of assets and investing our capital to maximize our long-term total shareholder return, which we measure as growth in AFFO per share, plus the increasing dividend we anticipate in the years to come. With that, operator, can you please turn the call over for questions?
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] And your first question today will come from Ric Prentiss with Raymond James.
Richard H. Prentiss - Raymond James & Associates, Inc., Research Division:
First, thanks for providing the supplemental information and making what was probably not an easy decision but going to a consistent comparable AFFO definition. We appreciate that. A couple of questions. First, on the organic growth side, can you -- obviously, services business had another good quarter. It was big in 4Q, continued to be big in 1Q. Help us understand what your thoughts are now as far as how much that's going to contribute in '14? And then also in the organic side, in the supplemental exhibits you gave, there's some nice color on 1Q, Page 13 talking about 8.5% growth and 1.4% churn for cash organic net growth. But then, for the year, that organic growth goes up to 8.8%, but churn jumps to 2.7%. Help us understand, is that the iDEN stuff? Or what's going on there? And what should we think as we look into '15, '16, what that looks like?
Jay A. Brown:
Sure. I think the -- as you look at the growth of the full year, if you're looking at the outlook, there's a couple of things that are happening. Obviously, we've folded in the AT&T results; that is entirely in the first quarter, and that will continue for the balance of the year. On the cost side, we're staffing up in the first quarter, both in terms of direct expenses that would hit the gross margin, site rental gross margin line and also some of G&A and then the buildout of the facilities, which would impact AFFO. And that's -- most of that is starting to come in during Q2. There may be a little bit of it that doesn't get all the way in Q2 and would impact Q3, but I think most of that will be in the Q2. So I think that reconciles how to think about the addition of the AT&T asset. On the second part of the question, we're expecting organic growth to accelerate over the back half of the year. As I think Ben and I both mentioned in our comments, the leasing that we're assuming in Qs 2, 3 and 4 on average is about 15% higher than what we saw in Q1. And that's coming from all of the items that Ben mentioned around the big 4 operators. Most of that is new tenant installation on sites rather than amendments as we've seen over the last several years. So it's site densification and them adding additional sites.
W. Benjamin Moreland:
And we see that in the pipeline today, given that we're sitting here in late April. We can see most of that already in the pipeline.
Jay A. Brown:
And then on the churn side, most of that is iDEN. So that started to come into the revenue side in the first quarter, although most of it really we only saw 1 month worth of churn in the first quarter from iDEN, and then we'll see it for the balance of the year. As we go into the calendar year next year, I think we previously mentioned we thought during calendar year '14, we would see about 1% impact to revenues from churn from iDEN, a little over 1%. And then the balance of it we would expect to see in '15. And then any licenses that are canceled in the back half of '15 obviously will have a little bit of fall-over into '16. So probably 1/3 this year, 2/3 next year as you're trying to time out when we'll see the impact from iDEN.
Richard H. Prentiss - Raymond James & Associates, Inc., Research Division:
Makes sense. And then on external growth, it looks like you had $62 million worth of acquisitions in the quarter. Was that for buying building towers? And then, Ben, you've hit pretty hard about how the U.S. is the best market you feel for wireless. What are your thoughts internationally? Is there anything that would be interesting to you in how you frame that?
W. Benjamin Moreland:
Sure, you want to take the first part?
Jay A. Brown:
Yes. On the CapEx side, those were all either CapEx we're adding on existing sites and then the construction of new sites, the vast majority of which would be in small cells. We didn't have any meaningful tower acquisitions in the first quarter.
W. Benjamin Moreland:
Ric, we -- obviously, we're very proud of our track record and our business model around the economics of shareable infrastructure, and that clearly translates really to many markets around the world as wireless is a growing business worldwide today and we see that in our international business in Australia today. So we completely support the notion of shared infrastructure in other countries, and we continue to look. The challenge we've had thus far and the reason we haven't pulled the trigger on anything of any size has been the initial upfront price relative to the cost of capital in those other markets. We've just not been able to get to a sort of risk-adjusted total return expectation on lease-up, which you have to have when you impose the currency risk and inflation and other things that happen in some of those markets. It comes at a premium. And in our opinion, we haven't been able to meet the price or expectations of sellers and, therefore, haven't pulled the trigger. So it's merely a function of price. It has really not a lot to do with -- at a price, the shared model certainly works sense -- makes sense and works anywhere in the world. We are extremely bullish as we talked about on what we see happening in the U.S. market. We would note that we're in pretty good company with Verizon's decision to acquire their Vodafone interest. So we've got a lot on our plate here. The small cell business is going well, and as networks densify and add new cell sites to accommodate the capacity, we've got a lot to do here.
Richard H. Prentiss - Raymond James & Associates, Inc., Research Division:
And what is small cell -- I think you said it's grown significantly. But what is it out of the total leasing revenue?
Jay A. Brown:
It's a little over 5%, almost 6%. And as I mentioned in my comments, it's up about 20% year-over-year, Ric.
Operator:
Your next question will come from David Barden with Bank of America.
David W. Barden - BofA Merrill Lynch, Research Division:
So Jay, maybe I think at the last couple of weeks of last year's fourth quarter, we had about an $18 million contribution from the AT&T portfolio. And I think that you ended up guiding to about $400 million -- embedded in the guidance, $400 million contribution for 2014. Obviously, the annualized run rate of last year's AT&T portfolio growth would have been probably closer to $33 million higher than that. So can you talk a little bit about realized performance in the AT&T portfolio and how changes in expectations for the contribution of that portfolio to 2014 have influenced your guidance setting? And the last question is just on the 20% growth year-over-year in the small cell business, could give us an update on how big that business is now today as a percentage of the total?
Jay A. Brown:
Sure. On the first question, I would say so far, the AT&T assets are performing very well in terms of the run rate of both revenues and gross margin that we acquired relative to what we expected in the acquisition. On a cash basis, it's slightly ahead of what we had underwritten and expected to have coming out of the gate. There's obviously whenever you -- if you're looking at the GAAP revenue numbers, there's the impacts of straight-line, both in terms of site rental revenues and site rental direct expenses related to ground leases. So there's some movement there, but on a cash basis, it's slightly ahead. And there is some benefit in our uplift of about $11 million in site rental revenue. A portion of that would be related to higher run rate -- initial run rates out of the AT&T portfolio, as well as the activity that I spoke about earlier of about 15% higher in the second half of the year and second quarter -- and second, third and fourth quarter of the year compared to the first quarter. So it's a combination of those 2 things that's driving the increase in revenue. On the 20% growth, again, it's about 6% of consolidated revenues today, and it's up about 20% year-over-year. Ben, I don't know if you want to speak to any details on what we're seeing.
W. Benjamin Moreland:
Well, I would just say, yes, we're just -- we're seeing a very significant uptake in small cell architecture among -- amongst several of the carriers as they're using it as a way to add capacity in dense markets. When we talk about small cell, as you know, we're in the indoor business and the outdoor business. Certainly, we're doing a number of venues, and those are co-locatable networks and I'm very pleased with that. We're also having great success and a growing building of a pipeline in the outdoor small cell architecture. We're, again, serving higher density locations where macro sites are just unable to handle the traffic. And so this is an underlay type of architecture across where they would certainly already be coverage. And we're seeing a very significant uptake this year in that architecture and one that I think will ultimately be adopted in a robust way by all 4 of the major wireless carriers over time.
David W. Barden - BofA Merrill Lynch, Research Division:
And Jay, if I can just a quick follow-up. The 20% growth in 6% of the business, so that's obviously giving you a percentage point of incremental revenue tailwind. Is that factored into the 8% organic same-store sales revenue growth before disconnects in the slide deck?
Jay A. Brown:
It is, both on the historical data, as well as the look forward.
W. Benjamin Moreland:
And the 9% forward.
Jay A. Brown:
Yes.
Operator:
Your next question will come from Jonathan Atkin with RBC.
Jonathan Atkin - RBC Capital Markets, LLC, Research Division:
Yes, I was interested in the nature of the staff increases that you've referenced, maybe a little bit more color on both direct expenses and the G&A-type staffing that you're doing. Secondly, on the DAS, I -- you gave the year-on-year growth rates and the scale of the business. Can you talk about whether your incremental investments in DAS, is that going towards more nodes or more fiber mileage, or can you give us a little bit of color about what's happening on the infrastructure side? And then my last question is on M2M Spectrum Networks in the press release that came out earlier in the month and kind of what your expectations are from that partnership and what they're doing.
Jay A. Brown:
Okay. On the first question around the direct expenses in G&A, maybe the easiest way to do it, Jon, is to start from Q1 and then walk you to Q2. And then after Q2, as I mentioned, I think it will mostly be in the run rate. Moving from Q1 to Q2, there's the warmer weather impacts that we always see, as well as having more towers. That steps up direct site rental expenses by approximately $3 million from Q1 to Q2. The second item that's meaningful in site rental operating expenses would be around staffing, and that number moves up about $2 million roughly from Q1 to Q2. And that's a result -- as a result of us hiring folks throughout the first quarter to staff properly for the AT&T transaction. And then by the time we get to the second quarter, it's fully in the run rate. So I wouldn't expect meaningful steps in those expenses in Q3 and Q4. If you go to the cash G&A line, and this would exclude stock-based comp because as you look at our G&A line, the G&A line I think will look almost completely flat year-over-year. So the impact to EBITDA, and you can look at what is happening in -- around cash G&A. And there, there's probably another $2 million to $3 million step-up that we're seeing inside the quarter from Q1 to Q2 for a similar reason as to what I was speaking about in direct expenses where we staffed up during the first quarter and then we have the full run rate in the second quarter. And then from there, I would expect we'll see, both in terms of direct site rental expenses and G&A, those numbers to return to something in the neighborhood of about 3% growth on an annual basis from normal cost escalations.
W. Benjamin Moreland:
Secondly, Jon, you asked about the incremental investment and activity we're seeing on the small cell side. Primarily, what we're doing is we're benefiting from the significant fiber plant that we acquired in the NextG acquisition back in 2012. From that, which we have significant fiber plant in many major cities, we're co-locating across that existing fiber plant, as well as adding additional laterals to that, extending the capacity of that plant into other locations. And so it gets sort of very blurry. It's not quite as clear-cut as the tower model where you're adding a tenant on an existing tower. Effectively, you're adding an additional tenant or node on existing fiber, and it may come with modifications or extensions to that fiber that we're doing on behalf of that tenant, with an expectation for further tenancy over time. So the term co-location is still alive and well in that business and working very well. It often comes with additional fiber that we're building, again, shareable among many. And then the last point.
Jay A. Brown:
I think you were asking, Ric, about the mobile-to-mobile, M2M solutions press release that went out earlier in the month. That was a transaction or partnership that we've done with somebody to continue to build out small cells, and I think it's relatively small and won't be that impactful to site rental revenues or gross margins, adjusted EBITDA in the near term. I think there are, as Ben was speaking to in his commentary, there are a number of connected devices. And we're going to see the impact of those, or believe we'll see the impact of those, both on our traditional towers, as well as in the small cell space, for a long period of time. And so this was an early one that they wanted to put out, their desire to engage us in a meaningful way, from their perspective, to get their solution rolled out.
W. Benjamin Moreland:
I think, Jay, you mentioned in your comments that our -- the vast majority, about 90%, of our activity right now is from the Big 4 carriers. And that's skewed a little high lately. For years, the -- what I would call the "other category" has been the equivalent of sort of one of the other Big 4. So there's sort of a Big 5 out there. And then of late, that has been light in that there's -- most of the activity has been around the Big 4 carriers. This M2M-type announcement highlights that there are always other people with access to spectrum, as I mentioned longer-term thoughts around DISH, LightSquared and FirstNet, that certainly stand to contribute to our growth over time, but not in the current outlook.
Jonathan Atkin - RBC Capital Markets, LLC, Research Division:
So if I could follow up then, the nature of the AT&T integration CapEx, what does that consist of? And then on the fiber footprint that you mentioned, I did ask this several quarters ago, are there opportunities to monetize that for non-mobile carriers or even enterprises given the metro nature of the fiber assets that you have?
Jay A. Brown:
Sure. I'll take the first one. You can do the second one, Ben. On the AT&T CapEx, we would have the normal repair and maintenance CapEx that we would expect to have. That will be on a recurring basis. And we'll start that during calendar year 2014 and we expect that to continue annually. Jon, if you're trying to pencil that out for the model, that generally works out to about $700 of CapEx per tower per annum. And so we've adjusted our outlook for sustaining capital expenditures to include that roughly $700 per asset. In addition to that, in the calendar year 2014, we're building out some additional office facilities to house the additional employees that I mentioned in the -- in my answer to your first question, and so there is some CapEx this year. It's going to be in the neighborhood in total of about $17 million. Obviously, I don't expect that to recur in future years. So that will be a cost we incur in calendar year 2014. And then beyond that, we would just have our normal repair and maintenance CapEx on a per asset basis.
W. Benjamin Moreland:
It's a little spike this year. And then on the monetization of the existing fiber plant, obviously, we're working hard every day to add small cell nodes to that fiber. But to your point, we have a small level of fiber-to-the-cell business already monetizing some of that fiber. And we have some other opportunities that I wouldn't call material yet, but are interesting. And I think there's a number of ways over time we can monetize the fiber, those that we already own and what we may construct over time. But as yet, Jon, it's probably not material enough to really highlight.
Operator:
Your next question will come from Kevin Smithen with Macquarie.
Kevin R. Smithen - Macquarie Research:
Yes. How much capacity do T-Mo and AT&T have under their MLAs? And as these companies start to build out 700 megahertz Leap and then AWS3, could you see amendment revenue from these carriers later this year and especially 2015, or is this restricted by the MLAs?
W. Benjamin Moreland:
Yes. Kevin, we -- as we've talked about, we're down to about 10% of our activity now as being covered by the so-called MLA contracts that were prepaid, if you will, presold. And we expect that to continue to fall. So really, any future activities, the most significant portion of that would be new revenue opportunities going forward. Without getting real specific by carrier, by market, we expect that 10% level to sort of hold and trail off over time.
Kevin R. Smithen - Macquarie Research:
Is it fair to think of the 700 at T-Mo and the Leap spectrum and AWS at Verizon, is that more of a '15 event?
W. Benjamin Moreland:
Yes, I would characterize it as more of a '15 event, exactly, given that we're already 1/3 of the way through the year.
Kevin R. Smithen - Macquarie Research:
So there's not a -- the implied organic growth acceleration does not include a lot from these new spectrum bands?
W. Benjamin Moreland:
That's right. Exactly.
Operator:
Your next question on line will come from Amir Rozwadowski with Barclays.
Amir Rozwadowski - Barclays Capital, Research Division:
I would love to touch on the overall spending environment debate here. You folks are once again raising your outlook for the year. Thus far, we've seen positive commentary from the carriers that have reported around their spending initiatives, particularly noting that densification is fairly important. I would welcome any additional color on how you think about the densification opportunity, particularly the size of the opportunity relative to the initial coverage upgrades to LTE. In other words, when we think about all the equipment needed at the site to optimize LTE traffic, be it fiber cabling, remote radio heads, multiband antennas or whatever the carriers are working with, is this densification opportunity for 4G as large an opportunity as sort of initial network deployments?
W. Benjamin Moreland:
Yes. Thanks, Amir. This is Ben. I'll take a crack at that one. Densification and the anticipation of adding additional cell sites after the initial coverage build is our entire business thesis. We've spent $9 billion on buying 17,000 towers and 10,000 DAS nodes in the last few years just based on that exact view. And that is now happening and playing out in spades. As we talked about in our prepared remarks, where in the case of Verizon and AT&T, they're actively moving into that cell site densification activity, adding additional locations where they weren't previously present, going on new towers as their LTE networks load up and they need to add capacity. That's also what we're seeing on the small cell side. We fully expect, if history is any guide, that you'll see the same occur out of Sprint and T-Mobile over time as they complete their initial coverage build on LTE. And we're already having initial conversations with them around their build plans for 2015 in anticipation of that happening. So our thesis, which again played out quite well back from 1999 to today, is that you have initial coverage build, and then you have infill, and that's exactly what we're seeing happening in the market today and what we expect will happen for many years to come as we lease up these new sites we've acquired with roughly 1.7 tenants per tower. We have a lot of capacity and a lot of locations that can quickly and efficiently aid these carriers in adding capacity into their networks. So that's what we're all about.
Amir Rozwadowski - Barclays Capital, Research Division:
And if I may, just a follow-up, you folks are fairly uniquely positioned in sort of your focus on the DAS and some of the small cell technologies. If I think about where we are today in transitioning towards more densification initiatives, have you seen any switch in priorities on -- in terms of spending? In other words, are carriers that you work with both on the DAS side and on the macro side reallocating capital? Or is it just more spend to everything?
W. Benjamin Moreland:
Well, it really is carrier-specific, again depending upon where they are in their deployment cycle with 4G. But I would say that we have seen absolutely no evidence of switching as you used that term. What we've seen is sort of more of everything. And so of those that are now in the densification mode, there's a very heightened sense of urgency to add capacity to deal with all of the requirements and demands that we, as consumers, are putting on these networks, as we mentioned with mobile video, connected machine-to-machine, voice over LTE, which is still coming. So there is a lot of future demand that the carriers honestly are trying to build in anticipation of and keep up with our current needs. But I haven't seen any evidence of switching per se. It's just now we have an architecture that adds capacity very efficiently in high dense areas and reuses that frequency on a -- with very small cells and reuses that frequency frequently. That's something that we're continuing to benefit from and working very hard to optimize. We've got a lot of people working on building out the -- in the co-location on the fiber that we mentioned on the small cell side and a very robust pipeline there.
Operator:
Your next question on the line will come from Phil Cusick with JPMorgan.
Philip Cusick - JP Morgan Chase & Co, Research Division:
I guess first, if I look at the acceleration going forward of activity in the business, it seems like there could be upside to your services business, as well. Is that acceleration something that you can capitalize on in services?
W. Benjamin Moreland:
Well, Phil, we've got a pretty good track record of growing the services business, as you all know. We're also kind of reticent to guide up on services. But I would say that with the addition of 10,000 towers this year, we would naturally expect with the activity that we ought to be able to replicate last year. As you sort of back into the guidance, you can sort of figure out that the service activity for this year now is roughly the same as last year, that's sort of what's implicit in the guidance. Can we do better than that? We'll see as we go through the year. We are extremely pleased with the take rates and the confidence that our carrier customers are placing in us in helping them meet these needs, both on augmenting and amending cell sites, as well as brand-new installations. So we'll see, but it's continuing to go in a very big way.
Philip Cusick - JP Morgan Chase & Co, Research Division:
Great. And then second, I guess on the small cell side. Is it easier to build small cell infrastructure where Crown has towers, or carriers consider reuse backhaul and you have some zoning and staff? Or does something else sort of drive the ability to build? Do you need local teams, or do those teams move around?
W. Benjamin Moreland:
So we have a lot of local presence. I mean, we operate a national business since we have people in local markets. And while I would say there has been some overlap and some benefit, and I would suggest to you in the future there will be more benefit and more overlap, where we have towers where you can even use some compounds at towers to build laterals off of tower sites into the small cell architecture, that has not been a real material part of the activity so far. I think it will over time. What the most, I guess, determining factor is for us and what's the most efficient, obviously, is where we already have fiber. Where we already have some of these 6,200 miles of fiber that we own in these major cities, that becomes a very compelling proposition for carriers looking to add an architecture in those markets. And then obviously, we have to build more as we're serving additional locations with laterals off of that spectrum -- I mean, off of that fiber. But obviously, the most important part of that is having that embedded fiber base already there, and that's yielding this pipeline we've spoken about.
Jay A. Brown:
Probably the other synergy, Phil, I might just mention for you, is really on the sales side and sales cycle, this activity. We've talked about for years that when we do our customer surveys that we have the highest rate of customer service in the industry. And so as we broadened our service opportunity for small cells and demonstrated to the carriers in the early days that we're able to do these successfully to build them on time, to make them work, we've got a great track record of that. And that helps us as the carriers are looking to expand their portfolio. And I think our track record and our sales effort there has been really helpful, and that, obviously, has benefited greatly from the synergies of how well we've done over a long period of time on the tower side and on the services side. They trust us and they know we'll do what we say we're going to do. So I think that has benefited us greatly since we did the large acquisition 2 years ago.
Operator:
The next question will come from Simon Flannery with Morgan Stanley.
Simon Flannery - Morgan Stanley, Research Division:
So Ben, you talked about FirstNet a couple of times. It seems like the funding is coming into view here with the H Block and the AWS auctions. Have you been able to get more substantive conversations in terms of trying to feel like is that something that could start contributing in '15 or is it still sort of '16, '17? And then, again, thanks for the supplemental disclosure. If I'm reading it right, you're about 71% of the top 100 markets. How does the growth trajectory look in your top 100 markets versus the other markets? Are we still seeing a superior growth trajectory there, or is it more even now?
W. Benjamin Moreland:
No, I would suggest the top 100 markets are probably even accelerating from what you see as the historical -- we provided in the supplement now the historical run rates of revenue, both top 100 and otherwise, on those towers. So you can see the spread there. I would suggest it's accelerating as the density of those markets is where all this capacity is required on top of the tower business, and I would overlay the small cell business and say, obviously, that's happening primarily in the top 100 markets, although not completely, primarily in the top 100 markets. So that's -- I think that's probably going to accelerate over time. The FirstNet activity, Simon, I hate to put a timeline on it. You can expect, given our position in the market, that we are very close to FirstNet and what's going on there. And they've got the keys to our system and are profiling our sites and portfolios in various markets and know how we could assist them, and we're in constant dialogue. But I would really not want to sort of put a timeline on exactly when we would think that would turn into revenue. As you know, there's a lot of moving pieces there, state by state, and so let's hold that one out for now. And obviously, it's a nice opportunity that we think will yield something in the future, but not in the current outlook.
Operator:
Your next question will come from Colby Synesael with Cowen and Company.
Colby Synesael - Cowen and Company, LLC, Research Division:
Great. I wanted to go back to the organic growth and I guess, more specifically, the churn. So you reported in the supplemental, it was 1.4% in the quarter, and the guide was 2.7% for the year. So obviously, an expectation for a meaningful increase as we go through the year. When we think about it collectively and we think of just total site rental revenue, do you expect the fourth quarter to be the low point for total site rental revenue based on that rising churn, or is it more going to happen in the second or third quarter and then we start to grow from there? I'm just trying to get a sense of what's the low point as it relates to site rental revenue as a result of the churn so we can get a better understanding what the jumpoff point might be as we go into 2015. And then just kind of going through your supplementals related to small cell, if I take the 6% of revenue that small cell represents as site rental revenue and just divide that by the node, I get to about $1,300, which you are generating per small cell -- or excuse me, per node right now. Is that -- could you give us an idea of how many customers are averaging on a per node so we can get a better sense of what you're generating on a per customer basis? And just curious, are you getting escalators for that, call it, $1,300 per month? And just getting a sense, is that a good number to look at, or does it vary widely so don't read too much into it? I'm just trying to get a bit of a sense of how we should start thinking about modeling out small cell.
Jay A. Brown:
Sure, Colby. On your first question, the churn numbers looks -- I think it's important to draw a delineation between as you're thinking about the impact to site rental revenues in the full year 2014 versus full year 2015, as you asked that question. There is, as I mentioned in my comments, an acceleration by virtue of the fact that the iDEN churn didn't start occurring until March of this year. So as you go through the balance of the year, you, in essence, start to have full quarter impacts from the prior quarter nonrenewals. So really, in the second, third and fourth quarter, we're expecting a similar level of nonrenewals as we go through each of those quarters. The back half of the year, the cumulative impact of that is higher, and it will continue to grow all the way through calendar year 2015, which would have the highest cumulative amount of impact. But on a steady state, as you're thinking about sequential change quarter-to-quarter, the biggest news there is really Q1 to Q2 as we go from 1 month of impact to a full quarter impact. And then after that, you kind of have full quarter impacts. So the sequential change is most impacted then from Q1 to Q2. As we look at the revenue outlook for the balance of the year, given that we're expecting an increase in leasing of 10% at the organic growth line, that number would accelerate over the course of the year. So your sequential steps in net revenue quarter-to-quarter are going to be degraded by the time you get to the fourth quarter. So hopefully that sort of helps you think through your model. On the second question, I think as you get into the pricing on a tenant basis with small cells, it's a little different than traditional towers because the systems are priced based on what needs to occur at the local level in order to accomplish that buildout. So these are priced much more on a return basis. I would say, generally speaking, you kind of laid out the numbers, you're in the general ballpark of what small cells revenue impact is on a per site basis. Maybe a little high, but there are certain systems that are going to be even higher than the number that you mentioned and other systems that are lower. So we're pricing these on a return basis. And as we've said historically, we think the returns on small cells are similar to that of towers, if you price them on a ticket system that has 3 tenants on them or 4 tenants on them. And the returns on those would look very similar to a tower that would have 3 to 4 tenants. The business is performing very well, and the lease-up that we're seeing on the small cells that we've built thus far, they're actually leasing faster than what we've historically seen from towers. So the returns or the margins or how we want to think about yields on those assets, they're achieving yields higher than -- over a shorter period of time from what we've traditionally seen in towers, which is probably a better way to think about it rather than trying to price that out on a per node basis, because we're pricing these based on the invested capital required in order to accomplish them.
Operator:
Your next question will come from Tim Horan with Oppenheimer.
Timothy K. Horan - Oppenheimer & Co. Inc., Research Division:
Just 2 clarifications. Last year, I think you talked about 8% of organic growth. Was that net of churn? And then just on Colby's question, did the small cells have escalators embedded in them? And then, Ben, I get asked the question a lot so I figured I'd ask you. Any kind of current thoughts on potential technological cannibalization? I know the cable companies sound like they're going to be deploying Wi-Fi hotspots fairly aggressively. I believe there was an article yesterday that -- of a pCell technology that DISH might be trialing. I guess is that kind of maybe a risk or benefit to you guys?
Jay A. Brown:
On the first question, the 8% number we were talking about last year, that was on a gross basis before nonrenewals. So we're now -- we've moved that number from 8% to 9%. That 1% move is all related to the new leasing activity. Escalators are remaining the same as we've previously expected. We do have escalators on the DAS. Thank you for reasking the question. I'm sorry I missed that in Colby's question. There are embedded escalators in the DAS contracts. The terms of those leases are very similar to towers as we noted in the supplement. There's about 8 years remaining on the average term on those leases, and so they look very similar to tower leases, both in terms of term and escalation provisions.
W. Benjamin Moreland:
Tim, on the technology question, as I think about technology, what we've seen that's been most impactful so far, aside from just spectral efficiencies we've gained in the equipment by putting our RUs [ph] up the tower and things like that, it has been the emergence of Wi-Fi hotspots. And I don't want to speak for my carrier customer friends, but I suspect in certain places, they're somewhat relieved that you're getting wireless -- somewhat a relief there through Wi-Fi hotspots. And I believe by some estimates, it's already offloading as much as 50% of the traffic when we're all using Wi-Fi when we can. It's our expectation that, as I've said in my prepared remarks, net of that kind of offloading node, in the mobile environment, there's licensed spectrum, and handoff from one cell to the other is sort of the dominant architecture. We're going to continue to see very significant growth on the licensed spectrum side, if for no other reason just because of the capacity requirements that's needed with, as we mentioned, with 350 megahertz out there and more to come. That's a whole lot more than you could traditionally do a Wi-Fi node. And then with respect to the pCell Artemis article the other day, from time to time, there are valuable new technologies that come up. They don't -- they change the laws of physics and they do require light installations and some level of backhaul connectivity into whether it's a vertical height or it's an installation that looks a lot like a small cell. And over time, to the extent that's viable, and I think it's very early days, but to the extent that's viable, I would think that would certainly be something we could benefit from over time.
Operator:
Your last question will come from Batya Levi with UBS.
Batya Levi - UBS Investment Bank, Research Division:
Just a couple of quick follow-ups. Last quarter, you had mentioned that you expected to be at the high end of 25% to 30% revenue increase for new leases. Now you're looking for a 15% sequential increase off of 1Q. So given the prior comments, how should we think about the overall annual growth? And the new installment and amendment mix that you gave, 85%, 15%, how does that compare to last year? And can you also provide some color on average rental revenue for amendments?
Jay A. Brown:
Yes. On the first question, if you were to take the 25% to 30% that we said before and then factor in the 15% from Q2 to Q3, Q4, probably closer to about 35%, maybe a little bit more than that, year-over-year growth in terms of new activity and amendment activity. Combine that and think about that in terms of organic revenue growth on the sites. On the amendment activity, 85% of the total revenue activity, leasing activity that we're seeing is new licenses is 15%. That probably compares last year to somewhere in the neighborhood of about 60% new and 40% amendments. In the year prior to that, it was almost a complete inverse of '14 where we were seeing between 10% and 20% new licenses and about 80% almost of the activity was coming from amendments. Most of that speaks to the commentary that Ben gave around the carriers' move from the coverage buildout for 4G to looking at site densification. In terms of what we're seeing from both amendments and new leasing pricing, it's up from past years and, on a like-for-like basis if you look at the equipment being added, it's -- the pricing has gone up probably 3% to 4% on an annual basis. When you start to try to compare what's the average amendment or the average lease, you really have to do that analysis on a carrier by carrier basis and look at what equipment are they actually putting up. Otherwise, the numbers are not necessarily comparable, and we're not prepared to share pricing by carrier. So I think I'll stop there on the explanation.
W. Benjamin Moreland:
I was about to stop you. I -- Listen, I appreciate everybody by going along with us this morning. I know it was a very busy morning for reporting. I want to commend the team for putting out the supplemental package. You can appreciate this was a lot of work to determine what we thought was most relevant to you, the investor. There's a lot of good information in here that I would encourage you to spend a little time with. I think most importantly, that I think is relevant, is it will help all of us more easily toggle between the GAAP reported revenue numbers and the adjusted numbers adjusted for straight-line and acquisitions. That's a challenging concept. It sounds easy. It's not. I appreciate that, and we -- it's challenging for us and we do it every day. So hopefully, some of this disclosure, for example, on Page 8 for one and others, that really kind of gets this into very granular terms is helpful for your own modeling and to really understand what's going on in the business. Again, thanks to the team for doing that, and thank you, again, for listening and staying along with us this morning. We look forward to reporting to you on another very successful quarter next quarter. Thank you.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, that does conclude our conference call for today. We thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect your lines.