• Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
  • Energy
Devon Energy Corporation logo
Devon Energy Corporation
DVN · US · NYSE
41.48
USD
-1.31
(3.16%)
Executives
Name Title Pay
Mr. J. Larry Nichols Co-Founder & Chairman Emeritus 155K
Mr. John Sherrer Vice President of Accounting, Controller & Principal Accounting Officer --
Mr. Dennis C. Cameron Executive Vice President & General Counsel 1.28M
Mr. Trey Lowe Vice President & Chief Technology Officer --
Mr. Scott Coody Vice President of Investor Relations --
Mr. Richard E. Muncrief President, Chief Executive Officer & Director 3.46M
Mr. Jeffrey L. Ritenour Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer 1.48M
Mr. David Gerard Harris Executive Vice President & Chief Corporate Development Officer 1.53M
Ms. Tana K. Cashion Executive Vice President of Human Resources & Administration 2.83M
Mr. Clay M. Gaspar Executive Vice President & Chief Operating Officer 1.65M
Insider Transactions
Date Name Title Acquisition Or Disposition Stock / Options # of Shares Price
2024-07-01 BETHANCOURT JOHN E director A - A-Award Common Stock 1703 0
2024-06-05 Williams Valerie director A - A-Award Common Stock 4934 0
2024-06-05 MOSBACHER ROBERT A JR director A - A-Award Common Stock 4934 0
2024-06-05 MEARS MICHAEL N director A - A-Award Common Stock 4934 0
2024-06-05 Kurz Karl F director A - A-Award Common Stock 4934 0
2024-06-05 KRENICKI JOHN director A - A-Award Common Stock 4934 0
2024-06-05 KINDICK KELT director A - A-Award Common Stock 4934 0
2024-06-05 Kelly Gennifer F. director A - A-Award Common Stock 4934 0
2024-06-05 Fox Ann G director A - A-Award Common Stock 4934 0
2024-06-05 BETHANCOURT JOHN E director A - A-Award Common Stock 4934 0
2024-06-05 BAUMANN BARBARA M director A - A-Award Common Stock 5068 0
2024-05-07 Cashion Tana K EVP Human Resources and Admin D - S-Sale Common Stock 20000 51.04
2024-04-10 Sherrer John Bennett VP Accounting & Controller D - F-InKind Common Stock 399 54.51
2024-03-12 Gaspar Clay M EVP and COO D - G-Gift Common Stock 186289 0
2024-03-12 Gaspar Clay M EVP and COO A - G-Gift Common Stock 186289 0
2024-03-08 Sherrer John Bennett VP Accounting & Controller D - Common Stock 0 0
2024-03-01 Muncrief Richard E President and CEO A - M-Exempt Common Stock 42582 41.53
2024-03-04 Muncrief Richard E President and CEO A - P-Purchase Common Stock 15000 44.42
2024-03-01 Muncrief Richard E President and CEO D - F-InKind Common Stock 41049 44.39
2024-03-01 Muncrief Richard E President and CEO D - M-Exempt Non-qualified Stock Option (Right to Buy) 42582 41.53
2024-02-12 Ritenour Jeffrey L EVP & CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER A - A-Award Common Stock 35985 0
2024-02-12 Ritenour Jeffrey L EVP & CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER D - F-InKind Common Stock 47753 42.24
2024-02-12 Ritenour Jeffrey L EVP & CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER D - F-InKind Common Stock 6115 42.24
2024-02-12 Ritenour Jeffrey L EVP & CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER D - F-InKind Common Stock 5588 42.24
2024-02-12 Ritenour Jeffrey L EVP & CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER D - F-InKind Common Stock 2703 42.24
2024-02-12 Ritenour Jeffrey L EVP & CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER D - F-InKind Common Stock 2499 42.24
2024-02-12 Muncrief Richard E President and CEO A - A-Award Common Stock 97065 0
2024-02-12 Muncrief Richard E President and CEO D - F-InKind Common Stock 167136 42.24
2024-02-12 Muncrief Richard E President and CEO D - F-InKind Common Stock 19558 42.24
2024-02-12 Muncrief Richard E President and CEO D - F-InKind Common Stock 7390 42.24
2024-02-12 Muncrief Richard E President and CEO D - F-InKind Common Stock 6767 42.24
2024-02-12 Humphers Jeremy D. SVP-Chief Accounting Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock 8142 42.24
2024-02-12 Humphers Jeremy D. SVP-Chief Accounting Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock 2446 42.24
2024-02-12 Humphers Jeremy D. SVP-Chief Accounting Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock 1956 42.24
2024-02-12 Humphers Jeremy D. SVP-Chief Accounting Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock 740 42.24
2024-02-12 Humphers Jeremy D. SVP-Chief Accounting Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock 608 42.24
2024-02-12 Harris David Gerard EVP Chief Corp Develop Officer A - A-Award Common Stock 35985 0
2024-02-12 Harris David Gerard EVP Chief Corp Develop Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock 47753 42.24
2024-02-12 Harris David Gerard EVP Chief Corp Develop Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock 6115 42.24
2024-02-12 Harris David Gerard EVP Chief Corp Develop Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock 5588 42.24
2024-02-12 Harris David Gerard EVP Chief Corp Develop Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock 2703 42.24
2024-02-12 Harris David Gerard EVP Chief Corp Develop Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock 2499 42.24
2024-02-12 Gaspar Clay M EVP and COO A - A-Award Common Stock 38826 0
2024-02-12 Gaspar Clay M EVP and COO D - F-InKind Common Stock 72585 42.24
2024-02-12 Gaspar Clay M EVP and COO D - F-InKind Common Stock 8494 42.24
2024-02-12 Gaspar Clay M EVP and COO D - F-InKind Common Stock 3210 42.24
2024-02-12 Gaspar Clay M EVP and COO D - F-InKind Common Stock 2777 42.24
2024-02-12 Cashion Tana K EVP Human Resources and Admin A - A-Award Common Stock 16099 0
2024-02-12 Cashion Tana K EVP Human Resources and Admin D - F-InKind Common Stock 21012 42.24
2024-02-12 Cashion Tana K EVP Human Resources and Admin D - F-InKind Common Stock 2691 42.24
2024-02-12 Cashion Tana K EVP Human Resources and Admin D - F-InKind Common Stock 2459 42.24
2024-02-12 Cashion Tana K EVP Human Resources and Admin D - F-InKind Common Stock 1352 42.24
2024-02-12 Cashion Tana K EVP Human Resources and Admin D - F-InKind Common Stock 1111 42.24
2024-02-12 CAMERON DENNIS C EVP and General Counsel A - A-Award Common Stock 24622 0
2024-02-12 CAMERON DENNIS C EVP and General Counsel D - F-InKind Common Stock 28652 42.24
2024-02-12 CAMERON DENNIS C EVP and General Counsel D - F-InKind Common Stock 3353 42.24
2024-02-12 CAMERON DENNIS C EVP and General Counsel D - F-InKind Common Stock 1690 42.24
2024-02-12 CAMERON DENNIS C EVP and General Counsel D - F-InKind Common Stock 1735 42.24
2024-01-23 Ritenour Jeffrey L EVP & CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER A - A-Award Common Stock 108283 0
2024-01-23 Muncrief Richard E President and CEO A - A-Award Common Stock 378991 0
2024-01-23 Humphers Jeremy D. SVP-Chief Accounting Officer A - A-Award Common Stock 25266 0
2024-01-23 Harris David Gerard EVP Chief Corp Develop Officer A - A-Award Common Stock 108283 0
2024-01-23 Gaspar Clay M EVP and COO A - A-Award Common Stock 164591 0
2024-01-23 Cashion Tana K EVP Human Resources and Admin A - A-Award Common Stock 47645 0
2024-01-23 CAMERON DENNIS C EVP and General Counsel A - A-Award Common Stock 64970 0
2023-12-05 Muncrief Richard E President and CEO D - G-Gift Common Stock 65792 0
2023-11-14 CAMERON DENNIS C EVP and General Counsel D - G-Gift Common Stock 8725 0
2023-11-13 Harris David Gerard EVP Chief Corp Develop Officer D - G-Gift Common Stock 4550 0
2023-11-10 Muncrief Richard E President and CEO D - G-Gift Common Stock 14978 0
2023-08-04 CAMERON DENNIS C EVP and General Counsel D - S-Sale Common Stock 7870 51.13
2023-06-07 BAUMANN BARBARA M director A - A-Award Common Stock 6344 0
2023-06-07 Williams Valerie director A - A-Award Common Stock 4596 0
2023-06-07 MOSBACHER ROBERT A JR director A - A-Award Common Stock 4596 0
2023-06-07 MEARS MICHAEL N director A - A-Award Common Stock 4596 0
2023-06-07 Kurz Karl F director A - A-Award Common Stock 4596 0
2023-06-07 KRENICKI JOHN director A - A-Award Common Stock 4596 0
2023-06-07 KINDICK KELT director A - A-Award Common Stock 4596 0
2023-06-07 Kelly Gennifer F. director A - A-Award Common Stock 4596 0
2023-06-07 Fox Ann G director A - A-Award Common Stock 4596 0
2023-06-07 BAUMANN BARBARA M director A - A-Award Common Stock 4596 0
2023-06-07 BETHANCOURT JOHN E director A - A-Award Common Stock 4596 0
2023-05-05 CAMERON DENNIS C EVP and General Counsel D - S-Sale Common Stock 8292 49.97
2023-03-14 Muncrief Richard E President and CEO A - P-Purchase Common Stock 7500 50.3
2023-03-14 Gaspar Clay M EVP and COO A - P-Purchase Common Stock 20000 49.98
2023-03-09 CAMERON DENNIS C EVP and General Counsel D - F-InKind Common Stock 2647 52.98
2023-03-09 CAMERON DENNIS C EVP and General Counsel D - F-InKind Common Stock 9923 52.98
2023-03-09 Gaspar Clay M EVP and COO D - F-InKind Common Stock 6704 52.98
2023-03-09 Gaspar Clay M EVP and COO D - F-InKind Common Stock 25138 52.98
2023-03-09 Muncrief Richard E President and CEO D - F-InKind Common Stock 15436 52.98
2023-03-09 Muncrief Richard E President and CEO D - F-InKind Common Stock 57884 52.98
2023-03-02 CAMERON DENNIS C EVP and General Counsel D - F-InKind Common Stock 4888 55.7
2023-03-02 CAMERON DENNIS C EVP and General Counsel D - F-InKind Common Stock 18330 55.7
2023-03-02 Gaspar Clay M EVP and COO D - F-InKind Common Stock 9907 55.7
2023-03-02 Gaspar Clay M EVP and COO D - F-InKind Common Stock 55723 55.7
2023-03-02 Muncrief Richard E President and CEO D - F-InKind Common Stock 22811 55.7
2023-03-02 Muncrief Richard E President and CEO D - F-InKind Common Stock 128308 55.7
2023-02-22 Muncrief Richard E President and CEO A - P-Purchase Common Stock 5000 53
2023-02-17 BETHANCOURT JOHN E director A - P-Purchase Common Stock 3765 53.06
2023-02-17 BETHANCOURT JOHN E director A - P-Purchase Common Stock 941 53.02
2023-02-17 Muncrief Richard E President and CEO A - P-Purchase Common Stock 10000 53.28
2023-02-17 CAMERON DENNIS C EVP and General Counsel D - S-Sale Common Stock 7179 54.77
2023-02-10 Ritenour Jeffrey L EVP & CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER A - A-Award Common Stock 22663 0
2023-02-10 Ritenour Jeffrey L EVP & CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER D - F-InKind Common Stock 41017 63.54
2023-02-10 Ritenour Jeffrey L EVP & CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER D - F-InKind Common Stock 5418 63.54
2023-02-10 Ritenour Jeffrey L EVP & CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER D - F-InKind Common Stock 6115 63.54
2023-02-10 Ritenour Jeffrey L EVP & CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER D - F-InKind Common Stock 5588 63.54
2023-02-10 Ritenour Jeffrey L EVP & CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER D - F-InKind Common Stock 2703 63.54
2023-02-10 Muncrief Richard E President and CEO A - A-Award Common Stock 61379 0
2023-02-10 Muncrief Richard E President and CEO D - F-InKind Common Stock 19558 63.54
2023-02-10 Muncrief Richard E President and CEO D - F-InKind Common Stock 7390 63.54
2023-02-10 Humphers Jeremy D. SVP-Chief Accounting Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock 14788 63.54
2023-02-10 Humphers Jeremy D. SVP-Chief Accounting Officer A - A-Award Common Stock 5509 0
2023-02-10 Humphers Jeremy D. SVP-Chief Accounting Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock 2384 63.54
2023-02-10 Humphers Jeremy D. SVP-Chief Accounting Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock 2446 63.54
2023-02-10 Humphers Jeremy D. SVP-Chief Accounting Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock 1956 63.54
2023-02-10 Humphers Jeremy D. SVP-Chief Accounting Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock 739 63.54
2023-02-10 Harris David Gerard EVP Chief Corp Develop Officer A - A-Award Common Stock 22663 0
2023-02-10 Harris David Gerard EVP Chief Corp Develop Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock 41017 63.54
2023-02-10 Harris David Gerard EVP Chief Corp Develop Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock 2601 63.54
2023-02-10 Harris David Gerard EVP Chief Corp Develop Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock 6115 63.54
2023-02-10 Harris David Gerard EVP Chief Corp Develop Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock 5588 63.54
2023-02-10 Harris David Gerard EVP Chief Corp Develop Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock 2703 63.54
2023-02-10 Gaspar Clay M EVP and COO A - A-Award Common Stock 25181 0
2023-02-10 Gaspar Clay M EVP and COO D - F-InKind Common Stock 8494 63.54
2023-02-10 Gaspar Clay M EVP and COO D - F-InKind Common Stock 3210 63.54
2023-02-10 Cashion Tana K EVP Human Resources and Admin A - A-Award Common Stock 10073 0
2023-02-10 Cashion Tana K EVP Human Resources and Admin D - F-InKind Common Stock 18048 63.54
2023-02-10 Cashion Tana K EVP Human Resources and Admin D - F-InKind Common Stock 2384 63.54
2023-02-10 Cashion Tana K EVP Human Resources and Admin D - F-InKind Common Stock 2691 63.54
2023-02-10 Cashion Tana K EVP Human Resources and Admin D - F-InKind Common Stock 2460 63.54
2023-02-10 Cashion Tana K EVP Human Resources and Admin D - F-InKind Common Stock 1352 63.54
2023-02-10 CAMERON DENNIS C EVP and General Counsel A - A-Award Common Stock 15739 0
2023-02-10 CAMERON DENNIS C EVP and General Counsel D - F-InKind Common Stock 3353 63.54
2023-02-10 CAMERON DENNIS C EVP and General Counsel D - F-InKind Common Stock 1690 63.54
2023-01-26 Humphers Jeremy D. SVP-Chief Accounting Officer A - A-Award Common Stock 37203 0
2022-03-11 Humphers Jeremy D. SVP-Chief Accounting Officer A - G-Gift Common Stock 36943 0
2022-08-25 Humphers Jeremy D. SVP-Chief Accounting Officer D - G-Gift Common Stock 10000 0
2022-03-11 Humphers Jeremy D. SVP-Chief Accounting Officer D - G-Gift Common Stock 36943 0
2023-01-26 Harris David Gerard EVP Chief Corp Develop Officer A - A-Award Common Stock 93008 0
2022-11-04 Harris David Gerard EVP Chief Corp Develop Officer D - G-Gift Common Stock 2895 0
2022-12-14 Gaspar Clay M EVP and COO D - G-Gift Common Stock 194175 0
2022-12-14 Gaspar Clay M EVP and COO A - G-Gift Common Stock 194175 0
2023-01-26 Cashion Tana K EVP Human Resources and Admin A - A-Award Common Stock 40925 0
2022-03-10 Muncrief Richard E President and CEO D - G-Gift Common Stock 18126 0
2022-08-15 Muncrief Richard E President and CEO D - G-Gift Common Stock 75036 0
2023-01-26 Ritenour Jeffrey L EVP & CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER A - A-Award Common Stock 93008 0
2023-01-09 BAUMANN BARBARA M director A - A-Award Common Stock 582 0
2023-01-05 MEARS MICHAEL N director A - A-Award Common Stock 1624 0
2023-01-05 Kelly Gennifer F. director A - A-Award Common Stock 1624 0
2023-01-03 MEARS MICHAEL N director D - Common Stock 0 0
2023-01-03 Kelly Gennifer F. director D - Common Stock 0 0
2022-11-14 BETHANCOURT JOHN E director D - G-Gift Common Stock 3600 0
2022-08-17 CAMERON DENNIS C EVP and General Counsel D - G-Gift Common Stock 1573 0
2022-11-09 CAMERON DENNIS C EVP and General Counsel D - S-Sale Common Stock 5557 70.48
2022-10-03 CAMERON DENNIS C EVP and General Counsel D - S-Sale Common Stock 4158 63.21
2022-09-01 Muncrief Richard E President and CEO A - M-Exempt Common Stock 20000 41.53
2022-09-01 Muncrief Richard E President and CEO D - M-Exempt Non-qualified Stock Option (Right to Buy) 20000 0
2022-09-01 Muncrief Richard E President and CEO D - M-Exempt Non-qualified Stock Option (Right to Buy) 20000 41.53
2022-07-05 CAMERON DENNIS C EVP and General Counsel D - S-Sale Common Stock 4537 53.55
2022-06-14 Williams Valerie D - S-Sale Common Stock 7000 69.67
2022-06-13 Fox Ann G D - S-Sale Common Stock 2150 70.27
2022-06-08 Williams Valerie A - A-Award Common Stock 2952 0
2022-06-08 RADTKE DUANE C A - A-Award Common Stock 2952 0
2022-06-08 MOSBACHER ROBERT A JR A - A-Award Common Stock 2952 0
2022-06-08 Kurz Karl F A - A-Award Common Stock 2952 0
2022-06-08 KRENICKI JOHN A - A-Award Common Stock 2952 0
2022-06-08 KINDICK KELT A - A-Award Common Stock 2952 0
2022-06-08 Fox Ann G A - A-Award Common Stock 2952 0
2022-06-08 BETHANCOURT JOHN E A - A-Award Common Stock 2952 0
2022-06-08 BAUMANN BARBARA M A - A-Award Common Stock 2952 0
2022-05-16 Gaspar Clay M EVP and COO D - S-Sale Common Stock 30000 71.25
2022-05-06 KINDICK KELT D - S-Sale Common Stock 9049 68.03
2022-05-05 CAMERON DENNIS C EVP and General Counsel A - M-Exempt Common Stock 9580 33.83
2022-05-05 CAMERON DENNIS C EVP and General Counsel D - S-Sale Common Stock 10000 68.56
2022-05-05 CAMERON DENNIS C EVP and General Counsel D - S-Sale Common Stock 9580 67.86
2022-05-05 CAMERON DENNIS C EVP and General Counsel D - M-Exempt Non-qualified Stock Option (Right to Buy) 9580 33.83
2022-04-13 Gaspar Clay M EVP and COO D - S-Sale Common Stock 30000 63.75
2022-04-04 CAMERON DENNIS C EVP and General Counsel D - S-Sale Common Stock 4143 61.45
2022-03-11 Ritenour Jeffrey L EVP & CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER D - S-Sale Common Stock 55000 58.35
2022-03-09 Muncrief Richard E President and CEO D - F-InKind Common Stock 15436 58.94
2022-03-09 Gaspar Clay M EVP and COO D - F-InKind Common Stock 6704 58.94
2022-03-09 CAMERON DENNIS C EVP and General Counsel D - F-InKind Common Stock 2647 58.94
2022-03-04 Fox Ann G D - S-Sale Common Stock 9027 58.67
2022-03-04 Humphers Jeremy D. SVP-Chief Accounting Officer D - S-Sale Common Stock 19000 59.42
2022-03-07 Humphers Jeremy D. SVP-Chief Accounting Officer D - S-Sale Common Stock 21000 62.4
2022-03-01 Muncrief Richard E President and CEO D - F-InKind Common Stock 17964 59.25
2022-03-01 Muncrief Richard E President and CEO D - F-InKind Common Stock 141462 59.25
2022-03-02 Muncrief Richard E President and CEO D - F-InKind Common Stock 22811 58.65
2022-03-01 Gaspar Clay M EVP and COO D - F-InKind Common Stock 7904 59.25
2022-03-01 Gaspar Clay M EVP and COO D - F-InKind Common Stock 62244 59.25
2022-03-02 Gaspar Clay M EVP and COO D - F-InKind Common Stock 9907 58.65
2022-03-01 CAMERON DENNIS C EVP and General Counsel D - F-InKind Common Stock 4192 59.25
2022-03-01 CAMERON DENNIS C EVP and General Counsel D - F-InKind Common Stock 22006 59.25
2022-03-02 CAMERON DENNIS C EVP and General Counsel D - F-InKind Common Stock 4889 58.65
2022-03-01 Cashion Tana K EVP Human Resources and Admin D - S-Sale Common Stock 17455 58.41
2022-02-22 CAMERON DENNIS C EVP and General Counsel A - M-Exempt Common Stock 4034 27.9
2022-02-22 CAMERON DENNIS C EVP and General Counsel A - M-Exempt Common Stock 4592 35.16
2022-02-22 CAMERON DENNIS C EVP and General Counsel D - S-Sale Common Stock 4592 53.8
2022-02-22 CAMERON DENNIS C EVP and General Counsel D - S-Sale Common Stock 4034 53.55
2022-02-22 CAMERON DENNIS C EVP and General Counsel D - M-Exempt Non-qualified Stock Option (Right to Buy) 4592 35.16
2022-02-22 CAMERON DENNIS C EVP and General Counsel D - M-Exempt Non-qualified Stock Option (Right to Buy) 4034 27.9
2022-02-10 CAMERON DENNIS C EVP and General Counsel A - A-Award Common Stock 15320 0
2022-02-10 CAMERON DENNIS C EVP and General Counsel D - F-InKind Common Stock 3353 52.22
2022-02-10 Gaspar Clay M EVP and COO A - A-Award Common Stock 29108 0
2022-02-10 Gaspar Clay M EVP and COO D - F-InKind Common Stock 8494 52.22
2022-02-10 Muncrief Richard E President and CEO A - A-Award Common Stock 67025 0
2022-02-10 Muncrief Richard E President and CEO D - F-InKind Common Stock 19558 52.22
2022-02-10 HAGER DAVID A Executive Chair D - F-InKind Common Stock 147347 52.22
2022-02-10 HAGER DAVID A Executive Chair D - F-InKind Common Stock 13096 52.22
2022-02-10 HAGER DAVID A Executive Chair D - F-InKind Common Stock 18419 52.22
2022-02-10 HAGER DAVID A Executive Chair A - A-Award Common Stock 5745 0
2022-02-10 HAGER DAVID A Executive Chair D - F-InKind Common Stock 20789 52.22
2022-02-10 HAGER DAVID A Executive Chair D - F-InKind Common Stock 1677 52.22
2022-02-10 Harris David Gerard EVP Chief Corp Develop Officer A - A-Award Common Stock 24512 0
2022-02-10 Harris David Gerard EVP Chief Corp Develop Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock 20802 52.22
2022-02-10 Harris David Gerard EVP Chief Corp Develop Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock 1850 52.22
2022-02-10 Harris David Gerard EVP Chief Corp Develop Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock 2601 52.22
2022-02-10 Harris David Gerard EVP Chief Corp Develop Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock 6115 52.22
2022-02-10 Harris David Gerard EVP Chief Corp Develop Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock 5588 52.22
2022-02-10 Cashion Tana K EVP Human Resources and Admin A - A-Award Common Stock 12256 0
2022-02-10 Cashion Tana K EVP Human Resources and Admin D - F-InKind Common Stock 19069 52.22
2022-02-10 Cashion Tana K EVP Human Resources and Admin D - F-InKind Common Stock 1695 52.22
2022-02-10 Cashion Tana K EVP Human Resources and Admin D - F-InKind Common Stock 2384 52.22
2022-02-10 Cashion Tana K EVP Human Resources and Admin D - F-InKind Common Stock 2691 52.22
2022-02-10 Cashion Tana K EVP Human Resources and Admin D - F-InKind Common Stock 2459 52.22
2022-02-10 Humphers Jeremy D. SVP-Chief Accounting Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock 17045 52.22
2022-02-10 Humphers Jeremy D. SVP-Chief Accounting Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock 1695 52.22
2022-02-10 Humphers Jeremy D. SVP-Chief Accounting Officer A - A-Award Common Stock 6703 0
2022-02-10 Humphers Jeremy D. SVP-Chief Accounting Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock 2384 52.22
2022-02-10 Humphers Jeremy D. SVP-Chief Accounting Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock 2446 52.22
2022-02-10 Humphers Jeremy D. SVP-Chief Accounting Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock 1956 52.22
2022-02-10 Ritenour Jeffrey L EVP & CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER A - A-Award Common Stock 24512 0
2022-02-10 Ritenour Jeffrey L EVP & CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER D - F-InKind Common Stock 43338 52.22
2022-02-10 Ritenour Jeffrey L EVP & CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER D - F-InKind Common Stock 3390 52.22
2022-02-10 Ritenour Jeffrey L EVP & CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER D - F-InKind Common Stock 5418 52.22
2022-02-10 Ritenour Jeffrey L EVP & CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER D - F-InKind Common Stock 6115 52.22
2022-02-10 Ritenour Jeffrey L EVP & CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER D - F-InKind Common Stock 5588 52.22
2022-01-27 Harris David Gerard EVP Chief Corp Develop Officer A - A-Award Common Stock 47170 0
2022-01-27 HAGER DAVID A Executive Chair A - A-Award Common Stock 334120 0
2022-01-27 Cashion Tana K SVP Human Resources and Admin A - A-Award Common Stock 43240 0
2022-01-27 Humphers Jeremy D. SVP-Chief Accounting Officer A - A-Award Common Stock 43240 0
2022-01-27 Ritenour Jeffrey L EVP & CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER A - A-Award Common Stock 98272 0
2021-12-14 Humphers Jeremy D. SVP Chief Accounting Officer D - S-Sale Common Stock 2000 40.64
2021-12-14 Cashion Tana K SVP Human Resources and Admin D - S-Sale Common Stock 41883 40.13
2021-12-10 CAMERON DENNIS C EVP and General Counsel D - S-Sale Common Stock 5942 42.05
2021-12-09 CAMERON DENNIS C EVP and General Counsel D - S-Sale Common Stock 929 42.53
2021-11-08 Gaspar Clay M EVP and COO D - G-Gift Common Stock 23092 0
2021-11-08 Gaspar Clay M EVP and COO D - S-Sale Common Stock 61053 44.28
2021-06-09 Williams Valerie director A - A-Award Common Stock 7685 0
2021-06-09 RADTKE DUANE C director A - A-Award Common Stock 7685 0
2021-06-09 MOSBACHER ROBERT A JR director A - A-Award Common Stock 7685 0
2021-06-09 Kurz Karl F director A - A-Award Common Stock 7685 0
2021-06-09 KRENICKI JOHN director A - A-Award Common Stock 7685 0
2021-06-09 KINDICK KELT director A - A-Award Common Stock 7685 0
2021-06-09 Fox Ann G director A - A-Award Common Stock 7685 0
2021-06-09 BETHANCOURT JOHN E director A - A-Award Common Stock 7685 0
2021-06-09 BAUMANN BARBARA M director A - A-Award Common Stock 7685 0
2021-06-03 CAMERON DENNIS C EVP and General Counsel D - S-Sale Common Stock 9632 31.26
2021-03-26 Humphers Jeremy D. SVP-Chief Accounting Officer A - G-Gift Common Stock 18475 0
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Transcripts
Operator:
Welcome to Devon Energy's First Quarter 2024 Conference Call. [Operator Instructions]. This call is being recorded.
I'd now like to turn the call over to Mr. Scott Coody, Vice President of Investor Relations. Sir, you may begin.
Scott Coody:
Good morning, and thank you for joining us on the call today.
Last night, we issued an earnings release and presentation that cover Devon's results for the first quarter and our outlook for the remainder of 2024. Throughout the call today, we will make references to the earnings presentation to support prepared remarks, and these slides can be found on our website. Also joining me on the call today are Rick Muncrief, our President and CEO; Clay Gaspar, our Chief Operating Officer; Jeff Ritenour, our Chief Financial Officer; and a few other members of our senior management team. Comments today will include plans, forecasts and estimates that are forward-looking statements under U.S. securities law. These comments are subject to assumptions, risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from our forward-looking statements. Please take note of the cautionary language and risk factors provided in our SEC filings and earnings materials. With that, I'll turn the call over to Rick.
Richard Muncrief:
Thank you, Scott. It's a pleasure to be here this morning. We appreciate everyone taking the time to join us.
By all measures, Devon delivered an outstanding set of results in the first quarter that surpassed the operational and financial targets we had set by a wide margin. This start to 2024 demonstrates the impressive momentum that we've quickly established setting the stage for our business to continue to strengthen. At this time, I want to personally thank our employees, our service providers and our infrastructure partners in helping us get 2024 off to a great start. For the remainder of my comments for today, I will focus on the drivers of our first quarter outperformance and the factors underpinning our improved outlook for the remainder of the year. So to start off on Slide 6, let's do a quick review of our first quarter results where we had several noteworthy highlights. Starting with production, our delivered volumes came in about 4% higher than planned for the first quarter, averaging 664,000 BOE per day. This production beat was across all products and driven by 3 key factors. First, and the most significant contributor to this performance was the excellent well productivity we achieved from the 100-plus wells we placed online during the quarter. On average, these high-impact wells exceeded our top curve expectations with strong well productivity in the Delaware Basin, once again, driving our results. Overall, this activity achieved initial production rates that were more than 20% higher than those that we placed online last year. As we progress through this year, I anticipate that these strong recoveries will continue. Secondly, another key factor that drove production higher in the quarter was the improved cycle times we delivered across our drilling and completion operations. Clay will go into much more detail a little later. But simply put, these efficiency gains allowed us to bring forward activity in the quarter and capture more days online than we had planned. And third was a factor that positively contributed to our performance during the quarter was the easing of infrastructure constraints across our Delaware Basin assets. This improvement was directly related to the steps we've taken along with our third-party partners to invest in the build-out of incremental gas processing, compression, water handling and electrification. These crucial capacity additions have positioned us to achieve better run times for our base production and allow us to deploy more activity to the core of this world-class basin. Another notable achievement from the quarter was this team's effective cost management. This was demonstrated by delivering operating costs that were 3% lower than guidance and capital expenditures that were in line with expectations even with an accelerated pace of activity. This positive start to the year puts us in a great position to deliver better cost efficiencies in 2024, especially if we realize incremental savings from deflation as we go through the year. Cutting to the bottom line, the team's comprehensive execution across all aspects of the plan resulted in our 15th consecutive quarter of free cash flow showcasing the durability of our plan to consistently create value through the cycle. With this free cash flow, we continue to reward shareholders through our cash return framework, which was led by stock buybacks and supplemented by another attractive dividend payout. Now moving ahead to Slide 12. And with the strong operational performance achieved year-to-date, we are raising guidance expectations for the full year of 2024. As you can see on the top left, a key contributor to this improved outlook is our 2024 production target increasing by 15,000 BOE per day or 2% to a range of 655,000 to 675,000 BOE per day. To reiterate what I touched on earlier, these higher volume expectations are due to the better-than-expected well performance achieved year-to-date and our confidence in the quality slate of projects that we have lined up over the course of this year. Importantly, we are delivering this incremental production within the confines of our original capital budget of $3.3 billion to $3.6 billion. This level of investment is expected to maintain a steady production profile of about -- for about 10% less capital compared to last year. This program is fully funded at ultra-low breakeven of around $40 per barrel, which equates to one of the lowest breakeven levels of any company in the industry. With our improved full year outlook, we are now positioned to generate greater than 15% more free cash flow in 2024 versus last year at today's pricing levels. This translates into attractive free cash flow yield of 9%, which is nearly 3x higher than what the broader market can offer. With this growing stream of free cash flow, we remain unwavering in our commitment to capital discipline and will seek to reward shareholders with higher cash returns. With our flexible cash return framework, we will allocate our free cash flow toward the best opportunity, whether that be buybacks or dividends. Given that the equity market is still heavily discounting valuation to the energy sector, we plan to continue to prioritize share buybacks over the variable dividend to capture the incredible value that Devon offers at these historically low valuations. So in summary, 2024 is off to an excellent start. We delivered on exactly what we said we would do and much more in the first quarter. Our business continues to get better and build momentum, and this is reflected in our improved outlook for the year. And with the current valuations in this space, the best thing we could do is buy back our stock to capture this value. It's going to be a great year for Devon and the team is energized to build upon this strong start. And with that, I'll now turn the call over to Clay. Clay?
Clay Gaspar:
Thank you, Rick, and good morning, everyone.
Devon's first quarter outperformance was the result of strong operational execution across the board, where each asset team delivered results that exceeded targets for production and capital efficiency.
As Rick touched on, the great start of the year was underpinned by 3 key factors:
excellent well productivity, improved cycle times and outstanding base production results. For the remainder of my prepared remarks, I plan to cover asset-specific highlights that are driving this positive business momentum and provide insights and observations that drive Devon's improved outlook for 2024.
Let's begin on Slide 7 with an overview of our Delaware Basin activity, which accounted for 65% of our capital investment for the quarter. We operated a program of 16 rigs and 4 completion crews across our 400,000 net acre position in the play, resulting in a production growth of 5% compared to the same period last year. This volume growth was driven by 59 new wells brought online that predominantly targeted the Wolfcamp formation. In aggregate, these wells impact -- these high-impact wells achieved average initial flow rates of more than 3,200 BOE per day. This performance results in the best well productivity from our Delaware Basin assets in more than 2 years. On Slide 8, while we delivered high economic results across the basin, I'd like to drill down on 3 impressive projects that were the biggest drivers of our outperformance for the quarter. On the far left side of the slide, Devon's largest development area in the quarter was the 13-well Van Doo Dah project in our Cotton Draw area of Lea County. With a thoughtful upfront planning and improved efficiencies from our simul frac operations, the team brought Van Doo Dah online nearly 2 weeks ahead of plan. The massive scale of this project was showcased by the peak flow rates that reached nearly 30,000 gross barrels of oil per day. This successful further -- this success further reinforces why I believed the STACK pay potential in Cotton Draw to be one of the best tranches of acreage in all of North America. Another noteworthy project that achieved the highest initial rates of any project in the quarter, was a CBR 15-10 in our Stateline area. This 3-mile Upper Wolfcamp development was made possible by an acreage trade recorded average 30-day production rates of 5,600 BOE per day. Very few projects in the history of the Delaware Basin have reached this level of productivity and the expected recovery from this project are also extraordinary projected to exceed 2 million BOE per well. And lastly, I would like to cover a key appraisal success that we had in the quarter in the Wolfcamp B interval of our Thistle area. This proof-of-concept well came in significantly above our predrill expectations with peak rates for the single appraisal well exceeding 5,000 BOE per day. This positive result adds to our resource depth in the Delaware by derisking approximately 50 locations in the area. While the hydrocarbon stream in the deeper Wolfcamp intervals generally shift towards the higher gas rates, the oil cuts are strong enough for this opportunity to compete very effectively for capital in our portfolio. Given this, we expect to incorporate more Wolfcamp B wells into our future multi-zone developments as we plan for our '25 program and beyond. Turning to Slide 9. We are clearly off to a great start with our 2024 plan in the Delaware. As you can see on the left, our well productivity is on track to materially improve year-over-year. As a reminder, this improvement is driven by returning to a higher allocation of capital to New Mexico, where our inventory depth is the greatest. It is important to note that we have not changed spacing or lateral length to achieve these improvements. Importantly, as you can see to the right of this slide, we're also pairing this with improved well productivity in the Delaware Basin with efficiency gains. The adoption of simul frac across the board segment -- across the broader segment of our activity has been a key driver of compressed cycle times, but the high-grading of rig fleets to also drive down overall well cost is contributing. I want to congratulate the teams for this success, and expect this momentum in the Delaware to continue as we work our way through the year. We included Slide 10 to remind everyone of the recent infrastructure build-out that we either led, participated in or just are benefiting from. Our patience in giving this highly prolific area some breathing room for this infrastructure to mature was the right decision from an economics perspective as well as an environmental standpoint. Slide 11 is an updated view of Enverus's remaining inventory of the top Delaware Basin producers. As you can see from this credible third parties perspective, we have one of the largest inventories among operators in the basin, providing us with a multi-decade resource that will drive enterprise-wide performance for many years to come. While the Delaware Basin is the driving force behind our performance, we do value a diversified portfolio across the very best oil and liquids-rich basins in the United States. I would also like to briefly highlight a few items from those basins. In the Eagle Ford, the steps we have taken to tighten our capital efficiency are yielding results. In the first quarter, we brought online 26 infill wells and a handful of highly successful refracs that resulted in oil growth rate of 7% year-over-year. Importantly, we're able to deliver this growth while spending 13% less capital versus the average run rate of 2023. This improved capital efficiency is driven by less appraisal requirements to tactically advance our redevelopment of the field, along with the benefits of a more balanced program across our assets in DeWitt and Karnes counties. In the Williston Basin, production increased 9% in the quarter. This performance exceeded our internal expectations due to excellent well productivity in the core of the play from our Bull Moose and North John Elk projects and better uptimes from our base productions. For the full year, the oil-weighted production stream for this asset is on track to generate up to $500 million of cash flow for the company. Moving to the Powder River Basin, our activity in 2024 is designed to build upon the well productivity gains we achieved last year where our 9 Niobrara wells increased flow rates by 20% from historic levels. For the rest of 2024, we plan to bring online around 10 Niobrara wells across our acreage in Converse County. The objective of this activity is to refine our view on spacing and optimize completions designs to drive down costs as we advance this area towards full field development. Lastly, in the Anadarko Basin, with the recent weakness in gas price, our capital activity was limited to one project placed online in the first quarter, but the flow rates were very impressive. The Allen pad that co-developed both the Meramec and Woodford formations achieved peak cumulative rates for this pad of 5 wells exceeding 20,000 BOE per day with liquids comprising nearly 40% of the production mix. As we look to the rest of 2024, we're reducing activity to 2 rigs in our Dow JV area and intend to bring online the majority of the activity in the second half of the year to capture the higher gas price expected in the winter months. In summary, I'm proud of the capital-efficient results that our team has delivered this quarter and the strong momentum that we have built as we look to execute on our plan over the remainder of the year and beyond. And with that, I'll turn the call over to Jeff for a financial review. Jeff?
Jeffrey Ritenour:
Thanks, Clay.
I'll spend my time today covering the key drivers of our first quarter financial results and provide some insights into our outlook for the rest of the year. Beginning with production. We had very strong results across the board in the first quarter, driving our improved full year outlook. Looking specifically at the second quarter, we expect this production momentum to continue with volumes increasing to a range of 670,000 to 690,000 BOE per day. This expected growth is driven by higher completion activity in the Delaware Basin, resulting from the fourth frac crew we put to work at the beginning of the year in the core of Southeast New Mexico. On the capital front, we remain confident in our guidance range for the full year. Spending will be slightly skewed to the first half of the year, roughly 55% of our budget, due primarily to the cadence of Delaware completion activity. This spending will begin to moderate as we move from 4 to 3 frac crews in the Delaware resulting in a lower capital spending profile in the second half of the year. With regard to pricing, the recent strength in price of oil has provided a meaningful impact to our returns and cash flow generation capabilities. For every dollar uplift in WTI, we generate around $100 million of incremental annual cash flow. On the gas side, we are experiencing weakness in WAHA pricing within the Permian. But as a reminder, our exposure is limited given our firm takeaway and basis hedging. Looking ahead, we expect the situation to improve with the Matterhorn pipeline scheduled to come online later this year. Moving to expenses. We did a good job controlling field level costs during the quarter. Our lease operating and GP&T costs totaled $9.27 per BOE in the quarter coming in below the bottom end of our guidance range. Looking ahead to the rest of the year, we expect our field level cost to remain relatively stable, and we feel very comfortable with our full year guidance ranges. Moving to the bottom line. We generated $1.7 billion of operating cash flow during the quarter. This level of cash flow funded all capital requirements and resulted in $844 million of free cash flow for the quarter. With this free cash flow, we continue to prioritize share repurchases in the first quarter. We repurchased $205 million of stock in the quarter, bringing our total activity to $2.5 billion since the program's inception in late 2021. With a $3 billion authorization in place, we have plenty of runway to compound our per share growth as we work our way through the year. In addition to our buyback program, another key use of our excess cash in the quarter was the funding of our fixed plus variable dividend with the board declaring a payout of $0.35 per share. This distribution will be paid at the end of June. And to round out my prepared remarks this morning, I'd like to give a brief update on our investment-grade financial position. In the first quarter, our cash balances increased by $274 million to a total of $1.1 billion. With this increased liquidity, Devon exited the quarter with a very healthy net debt-to-EBITDA ratio of 0.7x. Looking ahead, with the excess free cash flow that accrues to our balance sheet, we plan to build liquidity and retire maturing debt. Our next debt maturity comes due in September of this year, totaling $472 million, and we'll have the opportunity to retire another $485 million of notes in late 2025. And with that, I'll now turn the call back over to Rick for some closing comments.
Richard Muncrief:
Thank you, Jeff.
To wrap up our prepared remarks this morning, I want to reinforce a few key messages. Number one, we're delivering on exactly what we promised to do and then some in the first quarter. Our disciplined execution and outperformance of the plan demonstrates the momentum that we've established setting the stage for our business to strengthen as we go through the year. Secondly, with this great start to the year, we're raising our 2024 production guidance. This improved outlook is underpinned by efficiency gains from excellent well productivity, faster cycle times and better base production results, anchored by our franchise asset into Delaware. Number three, furthermore, this improved outlook is also manifesting in higher free cash flow that will translate into higher cash returns for our shareholders. Given the value proposition that we offer, the best thing we can do is prioritize repurchasing our shares. And lastly, our long-duration resource base is one of the deepest of any company out there. We continue to find ways to add resource. You heard some of that this morning. This was evidenced by our continued success in Wolfcamp B, positive redevelopment results in Eagle Ford and productivity breakthroughs in the Powder River Basin. And with that, I'll now turn the call back over to Scott for Q&A.
Scott Coody:
Thanks, Rick. We'll now open the call to Q&A. Please limit yourself to one question and a follow-up. This will allow us to get to more of your questions on the call today.
With that, operator, we'll take our first question.
Operator:
Our first question comes from Arun Jayaram with JPMorgan.
Arun Jayaram:
Team, I was wondering if you could elaborate on the improvement in the midstream situation in the Delaware Basin. And just talk about -- and one of the questions coming in is just is there any conservative built in to the second half guide given the fact that you outperformed in 1Q despite some of the weather issues?
Jeffrey Ritenour:
Yes, Arun, I think you're alluding to the infrastructure spend that we had last year, which has cleared up a lot of the gas processing bottlenecks and some of the other challenges that we had around water movement and electricity. The team has done a great job of getting ahead of that. We're spending, call it, $100 million, $115 million a year in the Delaware to build out that compression in the gathering. And as Clay mentioned in his prepared remarks, that served us really well as we walked in here to 2024 and has freed up a lot of capacity and availability for us to move the molecules.
As it relates to the back half of our guide, we still feel really comfortable with the guide that we've laid out. We've gotten good progress, obviously, here in the first quarter. We'll continue to monitor things as we progress and provide you guys updates as we move ahead. But needless to say, we feel really good about how things are working operationally in the basin, and frankly, across all of our core areas.
Arun Jayaram:
Great. And maybe one for Clay. Clay, you highlighted how you're seeing good performance from the refrac program in the Eagle Ford. I was wondering if you could shed some more light what types of returns that you're seeing from the refrac program maybe relative to primary development? And do you see an opportunity here in the Eagle Ford as well as in the Bakken for more of this type of activity?
Clay Gaspar:
Yes. Thanks for the question. It is becoming a more core piece of what we do. I think this is on the back of years of trying to figure out what's working, what's not, when you post appraise and kind of look at industry performance. I would say we've got a lot of mixed results. When you start fine-tuning a little bit and look at more recent performance, some of the work that we're doing, you see some really encouraging results. And that's on the back of making sure that we understand the well construction, the opportunity from a geology standpoint, that initial completion design and really focusing on the best opportunities. And then also, obviously, refining our techniques that we're using to do some of these operations.
I would say the wells that we are putting online this year, approximately 25 refracs, compete very favorably with the wells that we're drilling on a heads-up basis new well construction. So very encouraged about what we're seeing and I think there's more runway to go. On the Williston Basin, I would characterize the Williston as a little earlier in the process. Again, you draw a big circle around the Williston, you post appraise what the refracs look like, I think it's a little bit more of a mixed bag. I'm still highly, highly encouraged. I mean, in every one of these very prolific basins, it's still -- we're still recovering a very small amount of the total resource in place. And I'm very encouraged about where we sit in a multi-basin resource play company in some very high-quality opportunities to continue to get smarter on how do we create value from these amazing opportunities. And so more to come on that.
Operator:
We now turn to Neil Mehta with Goldman Sachs.
Neil Mehta:
Good to see that inflection in the Delaware this quarter. I'd love you guys to spend a little bit of time talking about return of capital. And in the past, you have leaned towards the variable dividend. There's a noticeable shift towards the share buyback program. Why do you think that's the right decision? And how should we think about the magnitude of return on capital over the course of the year?
Jeffrey Ritenour:
Yes. Thanks, Neil. As you know, a couple of quarters ago, we rolled out a slight change to our framework and leaned in on 70% of our free cash flow is going to go back to shareholders via our fixed dividend, share repo and then the variable. And then also, we made a commitment to building some cash to the balance sheet to manage the maturities that I referenced in my opening comments. So that continues to be our game plan and our expectations, specific to the share buyback, without question, with the underperformance we saw on a relative and absolute basis last year in the equity market for our shares, and based on all the work that we do internally, all the modeling work we do around intrinsic value, it's pretty clear to us that the best thing that we can be doing with that free cash flow is leaning in on the share buyback. And so that's what you've seen us do the last couple of quarters, and we would expect that to continue as we walk forward into 2024.
This pace of, call it, $200 million, $275 million a quarter, currently, that feels about right. Obviously, as we work our way through this year and our capital spending will moderate as we talked about in our opening comments, I think there's even a potential for a little incremental leaning on that as well. But we feel really good about the share repurchase program, the results that we've been delivering there and would expect that pace to continue.
Neil Mehta:
That's helpful. And then the follow-up is just on local gas prices. Obviously, they're under a lot of pressure as we wait for Matterhorn to come online in the Permian. So just any thoughts on timing of that pipeline. And as you look out, big picture over the next couple of years, how long before we need the next pipe, but do we have visibility into it?
Jeffrey Ritenour:
Yes. You bet, Neil. This is Jeff again. Great question and certainly something we've been talking a lot about internally and externally.
First of all, I'll just say Matterhorn, we expect it to come on at the end of the third quarter, to answer your question directly. I want to highlight that we haven't had any issues moving our molecules despite the volatility that you've seen in WAHA pricing and the kind of the downward trajectory of pricing here over the last, call it, 1 month, 1.5 months. We feel like we're in a pretty good position. Matterhorn is obviously going to help that when we get to the back half of the third quarter. But just as a reminder, we move about 2/3 of our gas out of basin to the Gulf Coast via the firm transport that we have in place. And then another 15% of our Delaware gas is protected via the hedge program that we execute each quarter. So that's helping as well. That remaining gas that is exposed to WAHA, one thing to keep in mind is about 75% of that gas is first a month. So we don't see all the volatility that you are looking at on the screen as it relates to the day-to-day when maintenance issues happen and other challenges out in the basin. So we feel like we're protected pretty well from the bit of exposure that we do have and certainly expect that Matterhorn is going to help relieve some of that pressure when we get into the third quarter. As it relates to other projects, there's a handful of other projects that our teams are engaged in discussions with third-party pipeline providers. As it relates to timing, I can't give you a specific answer, but I do think within the next 6 to 12 months, we'll see another FID in a pipe. And certainly, as you know, Devon historically, we've got a track record of leaning in to help those projects get off the ground, whether it be volume commitments or in the case of Matterhorn, we actually made an equity investment as well. So we're certainly going to be supportive of those projects and -- like most others in the industry, we think that you're going to need another pipeline here with another 18, 24 months.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Nitin Kumar with Mizuho.
Nitin Kumar:
Good to see the Delaware is back on track. I kind of want to peel the onion a little bit here on Slide 9. It sounds like, based on what Clay was saying, that you expected the productivity improvement as you went back into New Mexico and it's really the drilling and completion efficiencies and infrastructure that's driving the improvement, but could you perhaps help us quantify what was the contribution of the 2 things? And how sustainable that is going forward?
Clay Gaspar:
Yes. Thanks for the question. And the clarification, both Rick and I covered this in our prepared remarks. Number one -- I'm sorry about that. Sorry. Thanks for asking the question and allowing us to clarify this. We both -- Rick and I covered this in our prepared remarks, but there's 3 big contributions to the outperformance. Number 1 on the list, probably 60% of the outperformance was well productivity. That really drove the outperformance. Second was the efficiency at which we're bringing them in. We had a couple of more days online here and there. Cumulatively, that adds up.
And then third, very importantly, from a base standpoint, both from a midstream standpoint, from a weather standpoint, just how we're operating our wells, we really outperformed historical performance there. So thanks for the opportunity to clarify that. Maybe we weren't clear on that.
Nitin Kumar:
No. Great. I just wanted to make sure. And I guess my second question is for Rick. We've seen a lot of M&A in the industry. And I know that you've talked about the importance of scale in the new shale business. As you look at the remaining landscape, are you comfortable with your current portfolio? Or are there areas where you feel like you could optimize it further?
Richard Muncrief:
Number one, Nitin, we are very comfortable with our portfolio. We think it's got -- we have one of the highest quality portfolios and we're in multiple basins, what really, I think, plays to our advantage. We'll always look at things, but our -- bottom line is we have a very, very high bar, and we are very comfortable with where we're at. Can we find something that makes us stronger, and we would consider that without a doubt. But at the end of the day, our game plan has not changed. High bar, we recognize the quality of our portfolio. You're seeing the results coming from this portfolio. We feel very good about sustainability.
And that's not just our view. It's -- you can look at -- as a matter of fact, we left -- we put a slide in our slide deck just showing our quality of our portfolio versus many of our peers. And so -- at the end of the day, our game plan is, year after year, we want to be right at the top of the leaderboard on capital efficiency, and we'll continue to get that free cash flow we generate back to our shareholders. So -- but as far as the question around consolidation, I think our game plan has been solid for several years now. We had participated, we helped kick a lot of the consolidation all, quite honestly, and worked really well, and that's how we've developed this great portfolio that we have.
Operator:
We now turn to Scott Gruber with Citi.
Scott Gruber:
Just curious with the improved productivity, both on the surface and on the wells in the Permian. Do you feel like the production profile for the full year could be a bit smoother, a bit more stable in the second half?
Clay Gaspar:
Yes. Thanks for the question, Scott. As we have done in years past, we are front-loaded on capital about 55% in the front half of the year, 45% in the back and that's really driven by that fourth frac crew. Obviously, that comes with more wells online in the front half of the year, more growth. And so think about it when we're running those 4 frac crews, that we are consuming some of the pent-up DUCs. And then we're running 3 frac crews, our production is rolling over a bit, but we're also building a little bit of a DUC inventory. And so as I expect, and we've guided to first quarter is in the bag. Second quarter, we've guided to a little bit of additional growth. Third and fourth, we'll see a little bit of a rollover on the back of lower completions activity and then building those DUCs, we'll be ready to get back to work with a fourth frac crew either late in the year or probably more likely early in '25.
Scott Gruber:
Got it. And then in the prepared remarks, you mentioned the potential to see some additional D&C deflation. Are you starting to see more equipment from particularly the Haynesville migrate into Texas into the Eagle Ford and the Permian and start to loosen the rig and the frac markets up?
Clay Gaspar:
Scott, we are -- we baked in about 5% deflation from '23 to '24. We've continued with that mindset. I think that feels like it's materializing pretty well. There's a potential as we continue to run at this rig rate that we could see a little bit more deflation. But what I would really caution you on specifically to our guidance and why we reiterated our capital range is that we're also seeing a little bit of an acceleration of opportunities, more efficient drilling, more efficient completions, which you know can put a little bit of positive pressure on that near year capital number.
Now the good news, and I want to make sure we're all clear on this, both deflation and the efficiency gains are accretive to the bottom line of each of these drilling opportunities. So we are winning on both sides. I just want to reiterate that we are reiterating our capital range and still feel good about where we're at there.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Neal Dingmann with Truist.
Neal Dingmann:
Just one for you, Clay, I guess. Looking at Slide 7 on that Delaware plan, it looks like it's going quite good. I'm just wondering, if we looked at that plan, I mean, maybe it's too far to get -- start talking about '25. But when we look at the plan for 2025, how different play -- when we start seeing those areas that are laid out, like the '25 plan look versus '24?
Clay Gaspar:
Neal, thanks for asking the question. We have -- we are reverting back to about the same proportions that we were pre '23 that we are in '24 now. And so that's commensurate with the approximate portfolio ratio that we have, New Mexico to Texas, overall Delaware Basin to the balance of the rest of the company. And so think of '24 as a little bit more of the norm. '23 was a little bit of an anomaly. We moved from about 70% New Mexico to roughly about 60% in New Mexico, and that little bit of inflection was able to be seen in the overall average well productivity.
So moving back to 2024 is what we're doing now is a little bit more, I would say, kind of steady state for what we expect rolling forward for '25 and really and beyond.
Neal Dingmann:
No. I would love to hear that. And then secondly, just quickly on Anadarko and Eagle Ford. I mean both are producing about the same. Again, when you think about maybe the exit or again, even '25 on either of those, should we think about those as remaining relatively flattish? Haven't heard you say too much on those. We wonder anything you might add for either one of those plays?
Clay Gaspar:
Yes, I would say roughly. We will continue to evaluate near-term opportunities there. We continue to be excited about the depth of inventory. We continue to find new things out ahead of us that really aren't even reflected in our current inventory models. So that continues to keep us excited. We're always evaluating what kind of screens to the front of the list. And I think this kind of is really an answer to both of your questions.
Remember, the wells that we're bringing online, specifically in the Delaware because it's just -- it's leading our performance. A couple of years ago, these didn't screen nearly where we're seeing the results today. So our optimism about a couple of years from now, what's really coming up in the portfolio in all of our basins remain very high based on the fact that we've got a lot of smart people chipping away at really good ideas on how to always improve those recoveries a little bit more and operationally just do it a little bit more efficiently.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Roger Read with Wells Fargo.
Roger Read:
Congrats on the quarter here. I'd just like to come back a little bit on comments from the opening about potentially repaying debt and trying to think about the uses of cash in terms of does it make sense to pay down debt given your balance sheet is already strong? Is that -- is there another use of cash we should think about here in terms of either more back to shareholders or has been asked a little bit earlier, something on the acquisition front, like build a little cash in front of need?
Jeffrey Ritenour:
Yes, Roger, this is Jeff. Again, we remain committed to the upcoming debt maturities that we have this year and next year. We continue to believe that in this business with the volatility that we have, the wide swings that we can have in commodity prices from, frankly, day-to-day, week-to-week, certainly quarter-to-quarter. It's important for us to maintain that strength in our balance sheet and that stability. And frankly, it just provides us a lot of optionality to go do, whether it be incremental share repurchases or should we find the right opportunity, as Rick described on the acquisition front, that will be an option for us given the capacity that we'll have within the balance sheet.
But at this point in time, we're going to continue to focus on building a little bit of cash to the balance sheet to handle those upcoming maturities, and then we'll see where things go from there.
Roger Read:
Fair enough. The other question, just to come back on the, let's call it, broadly the efficiencies -- capital efficiencies, completion efficiencies that are on Slide 9. If you had to think about it from a -- kind of placing a credit, let's say, within the overall deflationary environment, the difference between lower rig rates or lower frac costs relative to the improvement? What would you say is the more important one?
Clay Gaspar:
Between those 2, I would probably push a little bit more to the completions because you're -- it's just a bigger ticket. But I would put ahead of that some deflation we're actually seeing in pipe. We -- in the steel costs in '23 was by far the highest category. We've seen that roll over pretty materially. Hopefully, there's more to come there, but we're pretty objective about overall well cost. We feel good about our guide where we're at now. As I mentioned earlier, I'm hoping for a little bit more inflation, but I'm also very realistic that the efficiency gains that we have make me hold the line on our capital guide.
Roger Read:
If I could, I just kind of wanted to clarify the question. So if I'm thinking about the efficiency gains, like, for example, more footage per day relative to a lower cost, just flat cost of services, kind of which one do you think you could lean into more aggressively here? Is it continued efficiencies on a footage per day basis or lower cost just directly from the service companies?
Clay Gaspar:
I think we continue to make great ground on the efficiencies, the days -- foot per day -- days spud to TD. I see those numbers continuing to head the right direction. The inflation, deflation, actual rig cost itself, that's somewhat -- we run with the market there. We're always pressing for the best opportunity, and we always evaluate service providers based on their own capabilities and what that cost is.
So we're not beholding to one particular company or one particular category, we're pretty objective about taking the best opportunity to create the most value for our bottom line.
Operator:
We now turn to Kevin MacCurdy with Pickering Energy Partners.
Kevin MacCurdy:
Congratulations on a good quarter. As a follow-up to the question on production trajectory, I know it's still early in 2024, but what kind of optionality does your ex rate give you for 2025? You were initially targeting flat oil this year, but better results are resulting in small growth. Is this new full year guide kind of the new maintenance level heading forward?
Clay Gaspar:
Yes. I would say it's a little too early to talk 2025, but certainly, as I mentioned in a prior question, we model, we have good models. We have internal looks for '25, '26, and then we always reserve the right to get smarter. So I would expect our '25 internal expectations, which we haven't talked about publicly, to continue to migrate up as they do in prior years. But I don't think it materially moves our expectations of what we're doing now.
In my mind, this is something that is kind of standard operating procedure on what we're doing. We always expect our D&C teams to move more efficiently. We're always expecting our production teams to be a little bit more operationally savvy and efficient. And then for the subsurface folks, building in that creative magic to extract just a little bit more of the resource and be a little bit smarter on how we do this overall. And I think that's the part I'm excited about and what I continue to see as we roll into '25.
Kevin MacCurdy:
Great. And as a follow-up, you guys have made a number of successful midstream investments over the years, including Matterhorn. What would be the catalyst for you to start to realize the value of those assets in any near-term monetization plans?
Richard Muncrief:
We'll always look at what we think is the right time when midstream multiples are clearly differential, if you will, to where we're at. And how that butts up to our strategy and making sure that we continue to deliver our commodity, and we get the -- we have the influence that we need. And so it will probably come in due time, but it's something we'll continue to monitor, and we try to keep a pretty close pulse on that.
Jeff, anything else you want to add there?
Jeffrey Ritenour:
No, I think you said it well, Rick, which is it really is a function of the evolution of the kind of the life cycle of the asset and where we are on that. And as Rick mentioned, we've tried to be opportunistic with those investments, certainly want to support projects as needed and where we can put some equity to work as well, we're not adverse to doing that.
And as Rick mentioned, from a governance standpoint, there are some situations where we want to have a little bit more control, but usually, as those assets mature, that tends to dissipate, and that likely becomes a time where we'll look at the market dynamics and consider some sort of exit or monetization. But I feel good about where we sit today with the investments that we have in hand, and they've served us well as we're working to move our molecules.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Charles Meade with Johnson Rice.
Charles Meade:
Clay, I know you feel there's a number of questions this morning along the lines of you guys had this bang up quarter to what extent should we expect that to continue. And I understand you're reluctant -- you should be reluctant to commit to that publicly. You're probably reluctant to commit to it internally. But I'm going to try to trick you when you're talking about it in a different way. And here's the question. It was really helpful the way you guys allocated the 60% well performance with the balance between cycle times and easing infrastructure constraints. But the question is, to what extent is that -- is there interaction between that well performance and the easing infrastructure constraints?
So my understanding is that there's a lot of -- there's a lot of new well pads in the Delaware that could be producing higher but for these above bound constraints. And so is that easing above your industry that enabled you to deliver those -- the rates that you've highlighted on those 3 Delaware pads?
Clay Gaspar:
I think that's a great question, and I'll take a little bit of that -- I'll take some of that bait and pursue it. And by the way, we're always happy to talk about operations, beats the heck out of something else that's more asymmetric to our objectives.
Referring back to Slide 9, we talk about 2 things:
the well productivity and the completions efficiencies. And then in our, both Rick and my prepared remarks, we talked about really 3 components and adding on that base. That base outperformance was really critical as well. As I think about overall proportionate, about 60% of the outperformance really was the well productivity, maybe 20% or so was bringing forward those projects more days online, and about 20% was just uptime really associated with less constraints than we saw in '23 and really historically.
Now that does not say that we didn't have any constraints. There's advantages and there's disadvantages of working in the hottest basin around the world. And that's really the Permian and more specifically, what we're seeing in the Delaware. Jeff's gotten questions on the midstream buildout. We're very highly tuned in on that. But it's not just gas. We watch water, we watch oil build-out, processing, the electrification, all of those categories, we have to juggle in a 4 or 5 dimensional kind of chess way to develop this incredibly prolific resource. The other complication specific to the Delaware is the number of landing zones, and that continues to evolve. We highlighted the Wolfcamp B as something that will probably play a larger differential role. So as we roll that in, we also need to think about the changes to that infrastructure and the needs. One of the questions you asked along the way was, do our wells have anything kind of held back because of infrastructure constraints? And I would say, categorically, yes, there's always something. We're not going to push volumes into a system that just doesn't want those systems. We're not going to pay -- we try and minimize paying basically disposal fees for gas. And then we also are very thoughtful about our flaring percentages. We've incredibly drawn that down. We made really good progress over the last few years and we certainly don't want to reverse course on some of those gains. So there's a lot going on. Really, really pleased with the team's performance and happy to be here to represent the team on such a successful quarter.
Charles Meade:
And then just one quick clarification for a follow-up. When you say 60% well performance, is that new wells brought online, the performance of new wells? Or is that the new wells plus the base?
Clay Gaspar:
It is the new wells. I'm separating 60% for the new wells, that 20% that I talked about in the base is the existing wells kind of the other base activities that are also performing -- outperforming what we had baked into the forecast.
Operator:
We now turn to Scott Hanold with RBC.
Scott Hanold:
Clay, a lot of talk on the Permian, but it sounds like the Bakken really pivoted quite a bit this quarter too. And I'd be interesting to hear any kind of color on the high grading. And what can we expect from that through the course of the rest of this year in terms of like when the next completions are coming in? And is it very similarly targeted in the same areas in spacing?
Clay Gaspar:
Scott, we've loved the Williston Basin for a long time. In '23, we probably pushed a little harder than the infrastructure and the well productivity was ready for. And so we've slowed that down. And again, just a great move to improve that capital efficiency, we have the benefit of a franchise asset in the Delaware Basin that gives us that latitude to not over accelerate into wells or infrastructure that's not quite ready. And so what you see on the Bull Moose and the North John Elk are some core of the basin opportunities that we needed to wait until all the stars aligned to be able to bring online.
We've actually got another rig back out there drilling some more core basin wells, about 10 of them that will come on either very late in the year or first of next year. Again, it's all baked into the plan. But that's probably the consistency, the approach that we're going to take rather than being forced into consistently running a rig and probably pushing some wells in that weren't quite ready for prime time. We're going to take the opportunity to drill what's available, release that rig, bring it back in when the next opportunity presents, and you'll see incredible results from it. Again, the Williston Basin continues to prove the quality of that asset, the oil cut. As Rick pointed out, the incredible amount of cash flow that comes from that basin is very valuable to our bottom line and the core of what we believe is the right business approach for our organization.
Scott Hanold:
So just to clarify on that then, should we expect quarter-to-quarter some gyrations in production, but like year-on-year, should it be relatively flat in terms of production?
Clay Gaspar:
Yes, I would say roughly, that's correct. But certainly, as we're bringing on a pad and then it's absent for a while, you will have some peaks and valley in the Williston. I hope that doesn't disrupt the visuals, it should kind of flow into everything else we're doing. But yes, as we are a little bit more selective, again, I believe it's the right approach in this asset, you will have some growth some quarters and some rollover in others.
Scott Hanold:
Got it. And then turning back to the Permian, the Wolfcamp B. How extensive is that in terms of what you think is upside to identify the inventory beyond that 50 locations? And are there other zones that you're looking at that would add to the focus locations as well?
Clay Gaspar:
Well, it's interesting. We talked about the Wolfcamp B a couple of quarters ago, kind of highlighting success there as well. It was just in a different part of the basin. The B obviously extends all the way across the Delaware Basin. This was an area that we really haven't drilled. It's a little bit more Northeast on our position in the Thistle area. And it's a little less mature, certainly from the B. I think there's 3 wells that have produced the B, the first 2 were just kind of so-so, and so our expectations were pretty moderate.
But again, as we're thinking about developing these areas, we wanted to really put a modern completion on and give our best kind of try and see what it looks like. It's significantly outperformed. And so with the approach that we're taking today, we're really excited about that differential uplift. The 50 wells is really just in our Thistle area. We have other B wells that we will be bringing on in other wells -- excuse me, other areas of the basin as well, those are above and beyond the 50. We'll continue to hunt for and more opportunity. The reason we highlighted this Thistle is this is not reflected in our inventory. This is more of that upside that we're bringing forward that now competes very favorably for the capital investment today.
Operator:
Our final question comes from Matthew Portillo with TPH.
Matthew Portillo:
Maybe a question for Clay to start. On the Anadarko, good to see a slowdown in the drill bit capital here. It sounds like dropping down to 2 rigs given the commodity price environment. I was curious if you have any updated thoughts on the 60 to 70 [indiscernible] for the year? And then, I guess, looking ahead to a more constructive environment beyond kind of 2024, what's the opportunity set to potentially accelerate this asset in a more constructive gas price environment?
Clay Gaspar:
Thanks for the question. We've got a great partner with Dow. And so this is something that we want to make sure that we're being good partner, and we're working in coordination with them. So I certainly don't want to get ahead of myself. What I can tell you is we've been very aligned, continue to appreciate not just the value creation from the partnership, but the nature of the partnership. I would say if the right opportunity presented, my belief is that we would be aligned in accelerating.
Now what I have to tell you is I'm looking at the forward gas curve, and it's just -- it continues to be pretty challenging. Again, with the balanced portfolio that we have, our ability for the Delaware Basin to really carry the company, we just don't see the need to push dollars into an area that's not being fully rewarded. Now that said, with the Dow carry and with the work that our midstream team has done to really extract the most value we can for this commodity, we are doing actually pretty well on these returns. Not Wolfcamp A well, but really know that we're still creating value. So we'll continue to run 2 rigs in the Dow JV area, continue to look for those opportunities above and beyond and then even extend potentially the Dow JV beyond where we're at today. Again, great partnership, enjoy working with that team, and I think we both benefited very well from it.
Matthew Portillo:
Perfect. And then maybe just a longer-term question on the gas front. Curious if you might be able to provide us an update on just how you're thinking about your LNG strategy and kind of the marketing of gas molecules on a global perspective and any updated thoughts on the Delfin perspective?
Jeffrey Ritenour:
Yes, Matt, this is Jeff. Yes, we continue to have interest in getting some exposure to the water as it relates to both on the oil and the gas -- on the gas front. Specific to LNG, we're having active conversations with different folks, including Delfin, as you mentioned. That continues to progress. No new updates beyond what you've heard from us in the past. But without question, we want to get some exposure to the LNG market as it relates to our gas molecules. And as I mentioned earlier, with the Delaware gas, we're in a significant portion of that to the Gulf Coast. Some of that goes into the Katy market. We've got incremental capacity that takes us away from Katy into the Louisiana kind of the hub where a lot of that LNG demand resides today and will get that built out into the future.
And so we feel like we're well positioned to take advantage of that incremental demand and again, having active conversations with multiple parties.
Scott Coody:
All right. Well, I appreciate everyone's interest in Devon today. It looks like we've made it through the queue of questions. If anything else comes up later on the day, please feel -- please feel free to reach out to the Investor Relations team at any time. Thank you, and have a good day.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, today's call has now concluded. We'd like to thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect your lines.
Operator:
Hello, everyone and welcome to Devon Energy Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2023 Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] This call is being recorded. I would now like to turn the call over to Scott Coody, Vice President of Investor Relations. Sir, you may begin.
Scott Coody:
Good morning and thank you for joining us on the call today. Last night, we issued an earnings release and presentation that cover Devon’s results for the past year and our outlook for 2024. Throughout the call today, we will make references to the earnings presentation to support prepared remarks and these slides can be found on our website. Also joining me on the call today are Rick Muncrief, our President and CEO; Clay Gaspar, our Chief Operating Officer; Jeff Ritenour, our Chief Financial Officer; and a few other members of our senior management team. Comments today will include plans, forecasts and estimates that are forward-looking statements under U.S. securities law. These comments are subject to assumptions, risks and uncertainties that could cause our actual results to differ materially from our forward-looking statements. Please take note of the cautionary language and risk factors provided in our SEC filings and earnings materials. With that, I’ll turn the call over to Rick.
Rick Muncrief:
Thank you, Scott and I appreciate everyone taking time to join us this morning. For today, my comments will be centered on four key themes
Clay Gaspar:
Thank you, Rick and good morning everyone. The Devon team did a really good job of rounding out 2023 by exceeding our operational targets for the fourth quarter. These positive results were driven by three key factors
Jeff Ritenour:
Thanks, Clay. I’ll spend my time today discussing the highlights of our financial performance in 2023 and the priorities for our free cash flow as we head into 2024. Beginning with our fourth quarter financial performance, Devon’s operating cash flow totaled $1.7 billion, exceeding consensus estimates and represents the highest quarterly total of the year. This cash flow comfortably funded our capital spending and resulted in $827 million of free cash flow, driving full year free cash flow to $2.7 billion. Even in the face of headwinds from lower commodity prices, this level of free cash flow ranks as one of the highest in Devon’s 50-year-plus history. Another powerful example of the consistent financial results, our disciplined strategy can deliver. As Rick touched on earlier, with this free cash flow, we’re targeting a cash return payout of 70% with the remainder reserved for balance sheet improvement. Slide 23 in the appendix is a good exhibit representing how we allocated our cash returns in the most recent quarter. Given the compelling valuation of our equity, we prioritize share repurchases over the variable dividend. This resulted in us repurchasing 5.2 million shares in the fourth quarter at a total cost of $234 million. In 2024, we’ve continued to actively acquire shares through our 10b5-1 program, and we plan to supplement this with systematic buying with open market purchases during the year. With plenty of runway remaining in our $3 billion buyback authorization, we see Devon’s current valuation as a great opportunity to compound the per share growth for our investors. In addition to our buyback activity, we delivered investors an attractive stream of income through our fixed plus variable dividend framework. In the fourth quarter, we declared a dividend payout of $0.44 per share that is payable at the end of March. This dividend consists of the Board’s approval to increase the fixed dividend by 10% to $0.22 per share and declare a variable distribution of $0.22 per share. We continue to believe dividends are a great way to reward shareholders and are a critical contributor to total returns over time. We also believe that the flexibility designed into our dividend framework allows us to return meaningful and appropriate amounts of cash to shareholders across a variety of market conditions through the cycle. Moving to the balance sheet. Devon’s investment-grade financial position continued to strengthen in the fourth quarter with cash balances increasing by $144 million to a total of $875 million. In addition to our strong liquidity, we exited the year with low leverage marked by a net debt-to-EBITDA ratio of only 0.7x. Looking ahead with the excess free cash flow that accrues to our balance sheet, we plan to build liquidity and retire maturing debt. Our net debt maturity comes due in September of this year, totaling $472 million and we will have the opportunity to retire another $485 million of notes in 2025. So in summary, our financial strategy is working well. We have successfully scaled our business to consistently generate free cash flow. We are boosting per share results by opportunistically repurchasing our shares. We offer a dividend yield that far exceeds that of the broader market and the balance sheet is in great shape with a clear pathway of continued improvement over the next few years. With that, I’ll turn the call back to Rick for some closing comments.
Rick Muncrief:
Thank you, Jeff. So to wrap up our prepared remarks, I want to reinforce a few key messages. Number one, Devon is a great company that has created a tremendous amount of value for shareholders since we unveiled our industry-first cash return strategy announced in 2020. Since that time, we’ve deployed $13 billion to dividends, buybacks, debt reduction and accretive acquisitions. I’m extremely proud of this accomplishment, but we’re just getting started. . 2024 is setting up to be another wonderful year for Devon. By incorporating learning’s from the past year and refining our capital allocation, we expect to deliver a step change improvement in capital efficiency this year. This improved capital efficiency is anchored by our assets in the Delaware Basin, where we expect to deliver the powerful combination of improved well productivity for much lower capital cost. Our long-duration resource base underpinned by the Delaware is one of the deepest of any company out there. The resource quality provides us an advantaged platform to drive attractive per share growth and outsized cash returns for many years to come. And with that, I’ll turn the call back over to Scott, and let’s have some Q&A.
Scott Coody:
Thanks, Rick. We’ll now open the call to Q&A. Please limit yourself to one question and a follow-up. This allows us to get to more of your questions on the call today. With that, operator, we’ll take our first question.
Operator:
Perfect. Thank you. [Operator Instructions] We do have our first question registered comes from Neil Mehta from Goldman Sachs. Neil, your line is now open.
Neil Mehta:
Yes. Thank you very much for Rick and team. Rick, I know over the last year, you’ve talked about some of your frustration around execution on the oil volume side, that is going to be an important year for that operational inflection. It does seem like we’re seeing some evidence of that with capital efficiency and holding the 315 oil guide so. Maybe you could just give us your perspective on whether we’re at that inflection point from an ops perspective?
Rick Muncrief:
Neil, that’s a good question. We have expressed our frustration, I think, in the market really – we really traded down on some of our variances we saw last year in our production volumes. But even though they were minor from a volumetric standpoint, they weren’t from a stock performance standpoint. So I think the setup is really good for investors as we look forward. So it is going to be, I believe, point of inflection for us as we’ve mentioned. Really bullish about our performance, the team has done a wonderful job, getting us through some tough weather. We’ve seen some increased productivity. I think Clay went through the assets really well, and we’re seeing nice growth on the oil side coming out of this first quarter as we enter second, third, fourth quarters of this year. And I’ll also say, Neil, I feel really good about the next several years on our ability to keep our crude volumes where they’re at. I think that it’s – we’re still early. We still are not getting what I think is a strong, strong signal for demand. But when that call comes, I think we’ll be ready to step up for it. But we really feel good about the trends we’re seeing.
Neil Mehta:
Yes. And just maybe to build on this is my big question for Clay – but just can you talk about what you’re seeing in terms of well productivity that gives you confidence in your ability to hit or exceed that 315 oil number this year?
Clay Gaspar:
Yes. Thanks for the question, Neil. This is one of the frustrating things about a publicly traded company. We get to see what’s coming. We get to see what’s happening well before the market does. And so where I can see the improvement internally in the well productivity from the first half of last year to the second half of last year, those numbers are just starting to hit the public markets and through the public sources. And so I think that’s pretty evident for those that are paying attention that this is not first quarter ‘24, we decided to turn on the production. This is an evolution. We wanted to make some really thoughtful investments in the future of the company. We did that. The market, I believe, responded pretty vigorously to that. We’ve since made some changes in the planning, the well delivery, the well performance is really significantly taken an uptick. As I mentioned, even late last year, you see some of that coming through the public sources. We’re going to – it’s really going to manifest in 2024 and as Rick mentioned, we’re just off to a really good start, even recovering from a pretty severe storm that we saw somewhere 1% to 2% impact. We always bake in winter weather, but an event like that was pretty out of the norm. The productivity of the wells, the performance we’ve been able to overcome that, and we feel really good about delivering – being able to deliver the ‘24 full year numbers.
Neil Mehta:
Okay, thanks, Clay. Thanks, Rick.
Rick Muncrief:
Thanks, Neil.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Arun Jayaram from JPMorgan. Arun, your line is now open.
Arun Jayaram:
Yes. Good morning, gentlemen. Rick and Clay, you’ve highlighted your expectations to deliver up to 10% well productivity gains in the Delaware Basin. I was wondering if you could maybe help us provide more details on what is driving that? It sounds like there’s going to be some high grading for Monument Draw to Southeast of Mexico. But I was wondering if you could talk a little bit about what’s driving that and – and if completion optimization is also a driver of better year-over-year productivity?
Clay Gaspar:
Thanks for the question, Arun. I think both things come into play. The big headline thing is just a refocus to more where we’ve historically allocated our capital kind of in the core of the basin predominantly where our inventory, our portfolio lays out between New Mexico and Texas. I would say ‘23, especially first half of ‘23, was a little bit of an anomaly on where we were allocating that capital, and we needed to do some work from the infrastructure standpoint, but also really understanding where all these fit together. We’re benefiting tremendously from that work, from that infrastructure build-out, and that’s where we’re seeing the improvement really late ‘23 to what we’re showing today. On the completions question, I wouldn’t point to it’s a big knob that we’ve changed on – excuse me, like a sand concentration or how we’re doing, what we’re doing, but the team is working every single day to think about how do we do it better, how do we touch a little bit more rock and how do we do it more cost effectively. And I can tell you we’re winning on all fronts. These are small wins at this point, some relatively mature way of thinking about these assets, but really, really pleased with the continued improvement there, and that shows up in the numbers as well.
Arun Jayaram:
Great follow-up, Rick, Devon, as you know, has been linked to a few M&A deals in the financial press. I was wondering if you could just comment on where you sit today in terms of your A&D strategy, and how you gain some of the inorganic opportunities versus, as Jeff mentioned, the ability to buy back your stock at a 9% kind of free cash flow yield today?
Rick Muncrief:
Yes. Very good question. Arun, our answer has really not changed that much over the last several years. We’re going to continue to evaluate opportunities. When you’re in five basins, you have some great opportunities in all five of those, and we watch that. We stay attuned to those opportunities as they become available or it’s the right time for us to think about that. So I think we’re going to continue to see the high bar. We’re going to – it’s got to be – it has to have some accretion, it has to have the industrial logic that we have always talked about. And it just has to make us a better company. And if it fits in that framework, man, I think that’s our job is to create value for shareholders. And so we’re going to do that. We also have been advocates for consolidation. I think some of the transactions that’s been announced that I think that’s the – I think they’re positive for the industry. And it just shows that we are a depleting industry. And so you always have to replenish. That’s your portfolio that’s not changed. It’s not changed since the beginning of this industry. And so we’ll always be active. We’ve got a great team. We’ve got great analytics, capabilities in-house, and we do our own internal analytics compare that with what you see out in the public market and adjust. But once again, we’re going to be very, very measured very disciplined. And we will make – we will make some – I think the right decisions, and that does include the binder stock back because I can tell you that at these levels, we are very, very attractive. Great question.
Arun Jayaram:
Thanks, guys.
Rick Muncrief:
Thanks, Arun.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Nitin Kumar from Mizuho. Nitin, your line is now open.
Nitin Kumar:
Great. Thanks, guys. Good morning. And thanks for taking my questions. Rick, I’ve heard you saying just a multiple times today that buybacks are very attractive, especially at these levels. But as I look at fourth quarter, the mix actually favor dividends, including a variable payout a bit. Not to nitpick or anything like that, but just want to understand what drove the decision? We applaud the 10% increase on the base even what drove the decision for the variable dividend? And how should we see that evolve in 2024?
Jeff Ritenour:
Nitin, this is Jeff. Keep in mind that there is some variance in the timing of the variable dividend payout, right? So when we announced it, it actually gets paid in the subsequent quarter. So maybe that’s what you’re alluding to as it relates to the mix. But with our framework going forward, we’re going to simply each quarter, focus on delivering about 70% of our free cash flow back to shareholders in the form of that fixed dividend, which, obviously, we grew at 10% here on a year-over-year basis. That’s the first and foremost going to be a priority for us, and we’re going to look to continue to grow that on an annual basis going forward. Then beyond that, we’re absolutely biased towards leaning in on the share repo here in the near-term. And frankly, the variable dividend will fall out of the back of that based on that 70% threshold that I hit on earlier. So we’re going to continue to expect to have a higher mix of buyback going forward. And that’s going to be our priority as we walk it through this year.
Nitin Kumar:
Okay. Thanks, Jeff. And then my next question is really for Clay probably. Clay, impressive improvements in operating efficiencies, days drilled, days completed. Just curious, is there any specific technologies that you would point to that have helped you achieve those? And I guess never say never, but where are we in terms of those efficiencies? Are we getting to some sort of baseline? Or do you think we can continue to deliver those types of improvements?
Clay Gaspar:
Nitin, it really goes down – goes back to just the core operating team. These are highly talented, highly motivated individuals that are absolutely trying to do the right thing ultimately for the shareholders they work for. Now I will remind you, this is the same team working just as hard with just as much creativity this year as they were last year. What we found is we really needed to focus. We underestimated what a slight change in capital efficiency during the first half of ‘23, meant to investors. I think that was way over extrapolated into us running out of inventory, not being able to do this anymore. We lost our minds, all that good fund. And what we showed is like hang on a second. We still have the capabilities. We’ve got some really impressive inventory, some great quality. And importantly, these are hard-working impressive people that continue to find a way to do it better each quarter. And this is so many things below the radar that don’t always show up in the [indiscernible] data, don’t show up in the financials. I can tell you, we’re winning on lots and lots of fronts and there’s more that to come. So really excited about the go forward. I think we’ve got some good transparency in our slides on quantity of resource, quality of resource. I expect in ‘24 that we will regain a little bit of public mojo, but that, to me, is just – it’s a little overdue. So looking forward to sharing that win with the team.
Nitin Kumar:
Great, thanks, guys.
Rick Muncrief:
Thanks, Nitin.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Doug Leggate from Bank of America. Doug, your line is now open.
Unidentified Analyst:
Hey, good morning, guys. This is actually [indiscernible] on for Doug. So, thanks for taking me on. For my first question, I want to go back to the buyback, just to follow-up. I want to understand the motivations behind the strategy for ‘24. Shifting capital back to the Delaware and the margin is obviously an efficiency shift and that makes sense, but in tandem, you’re also leading back into the buyback and that looks rather intentional. So can you talk about why you see the buyback as a preferred allocation today? And why has that changed over the past several months?
Jeff Ritenour:
Yes, you bet. So again, on the buyback front, what’s pretty clear to us as we kind of walk through our framework for evaluating share repo, versus the other capital allocation opportunities that we have, whether it be organic investment, inorganic investment that Rick spoke to earlier, whether it’s M&A or otherwise, and then when we step back and look at the valuation, we look at the multiples, we look at our intrinsic value model that we keep in-house and run multiple sensitivities on that. Every which way we turn, what we keep coming back to is the – our shares look undervalued relative to the broader market relative to the sector and certainly relative to the results that we expect to post as we walk our way through this year. So – that really has been the driver and our focus going back half of last year and as we walk into 2024, and it’s why we’re biased towards having the lion’s share of our cash returns be focused on the share repurchase going forward.
Clay Gaspar:
And if I could, I just want to clarify – I’m sorry, I just want to add one comment on that prior question. I think it’s a common misconception the way we lay the numbers out that we are leaning in or that we’re increasing capital to the Delaware somehow accelerating, that’s not really the case. We are the same rig count, same level of activity. The capital is actually coming down, not just in the total company, but in Delaware, but where we’re seeing the 10% inflection from the company is really a reduction in some of the other areas. So proportionately, Delaware is moving up, but on an absolute basis, we’re not consuming that inventory any faster than we had in ‘23 or years before.
Unidentified Analyst:
Got it. I appreciate that. That’s where my follow-up will go. So I’m wondering if the reduction in the capital in these other areas, what kind of permanent does that have? Is it sort of a stop gap as you figure out what’s going on in the Bakken? Or is this now the direction of the program?
Clay Gaspar:
Was the question [indiscernible].
Unidentified Analyst:
[indiscernible]
Clay Gaspar:
Can we do it multiple years? I’m just making sure I understand the question.
Unidentified Analyst:
Yes. How many years can you run this kind of capital program?
Clay Gaspar:
Okay. Alright, thank you for that. Sorry. The acoustics in here weren’t quite right. Sorry about that. Yes, I think in pulling back the activity, for example, in the Williston Basin, that prolongs that basin’s opportunity to continue to deliver free cash flow and offset some of that fall in production with some really healthy wells. What we found is we were pushing a little too quickly, a little too much capital to that asset by having the multiple basins that we do, having our franchise asset in the Delaware Basin. It allows us to take a little bit of pressure off that team, allows them to really make sure that all the ducks are in a row ready for that next pad. And then selectively, we’re going to fund those. And as you saw with the bull news that I talked about on the call, these are phenomenal. These are awesome returns, and we’ve got more of that to come.
Unidentified Analyst:
Thanks for the comments.
Clay Gaspar:
You bet.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Neal Dingmann from Truist. Neal, your line is now open.
Neal Dingmann:
Good morning, guys. Thanks for the time. Clay, first question for you. It’s on your Delaware infrastructure and takeaway. I’m just wondering, after adding so much [indiscernible] where you talked about adding so much processing, gathering, compression, water – just wondering now, are you all able to handle the continued notable upside that’s going to come with the development plan or will there be a continued build-out?
Clay Gaspar:
We feel really good about being able to effectively produce. Remember, we are really watching our flaring. We don’t want to have unnecessary shut-ins. We are reliant on so many third parties. We wanted to make sure that we had that runway ahead of these very prolific pads coming online. We want to make sure we have that. We do feel very confident in that today. And remember, it’s not just our immediate wells. We’ve got some really high-quality offset operators that know what they’re doing as well. It’s a phenomenal basin, and we have to make sure that all of that plays together very nicely. And so that we have the reliability in the infrastructure to bring these wells online and make sure we ultimately get them to market.
Neal Dingmann:
Yes, it makes sense. And then my second is just on the Eagle Ford, specifically. Can you give details – I think you talked about 85 to 95 well plan, I’m just wanted to focus here be on existing key areas like you’re doing in the model and just maybe talk about any improvements we should think about specifically in this area?
Clay Gaspar:
Thanks for that question. I’m really excited about the Eagle Ford. One of the things, unlike a lot of other areas, we’ve continued to test downspacing tighter wells, subsequent well after the initial development has been done, bringing additional wells in, which is really not very favorable in most basins, it tends to work and continue to provide upside in the Eagle Ford. Now when you pair that with some of the refrac activity, we can actually feather in new wells, refrac some of the existing wells, and we’re seeing phenomenal results. As I mentioned in my prepared remarks, we are continuing to expand the runway there without any M&A dollars without – just from the existing footprint, the opportunity set continues to expand and these are very prolific, very accretive to the bottom line kind of numbers that we’re really excited about.
Neal Dingmann:
Great to hear. Thank you.
Rick Muncrief:
Thank you, Neal.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Kevin MacCurdy from Pickering Energy Partners. Kevin, your line is now open.
Kevin MacCurdy:
Hey, good morning. My first question is on the capital budget. We appreciate that the $3.3 billion to $3.6 billion range is a significant decrease year-over-year. But if we look back at last year’s budget, we noticed that the range is wider both on absolute dollars on a percentage basis this year. I was wondering if you could provide any color on what might put you at the low end of that range versus the high end of the capital range. Is that driven more by deflation, turning lines or midstream spend?
Clay Gaspar:
Yes. It’s interesting, Kevin. One of the first thing that comes to mind for me is the efficiency that I talked about in a couple of my slides, you guys know this very well. We’ve been at this game for quite a while. Sometimes that efficiency can pull more activity into the calendar year. Look, this is not our first rodeo. This is February. We’re already watching that for the full year. We’re committed to this range. But if I had to think of what could cause us to kind of float to the upside, it’s probably that kind of work where you’re seeing more opportunities bring some of that activity from ‘25 into ‘24. I think on the downside, there’s – we’re early in the year. I think the supply chain deflation opportunities are still – we’ve got a 5% year-over-year kind of baked in. I feel good about that. I feel very confident we’re going to be able to deliver that. As the year plays out, we really need to see where that changes over time. My current crystal ball doesn’t see a lot of inflation, but there’s certainly deflation opportunities in that number, and that potentially could allow us to float down to the lower end of that range.
Kevin MacCurdy:
I appreciate the detail on that. And as a follow-up, the Eagle Ford had a strong production quarter, and it looks like the CapEx guidance for that asset is fairly consistent year-over-year. Can you talk about the production and capital efficiency outlook in the Eagle Ford? And if there’s any major changes between 2023 and 2024?
Rick Muncrief:
Hi, Kevin, this is Rick. One of the things that I’ve been really proud of over the last 12 to 18 months is coming on the heels of the Validus acquisition, what we have been able to learn at a solid acreage. It’s – I would say it is second, certainly to our Black Hawk acreage. But the thing about it that we need to remind investors of and analyst is that on the Black Hawk acreage, it’s a 50-50 joint venture with BPX. BPX operates the drilling and the completion of that. And what we felt it was really from a – not only a productivity increase, but also just a strategic perspective, we thought it was imperative that we had an asset that we owned that we did the drilling that we did the completions on. The 5-day well that Clay referenced a while ago, I can tell you that absolutely exceeded anything that we had in our Validus development plan. So when I look at that, look, now we’re having some very, very meaningful discussions with our joint venture partner there. And they’re very constructive, and I think it’s going to lead to even better performance over time in the Eagle Ford. I’m really pleased with what we’re seeing with the refrac program. It’s going to continue to drive some – I think, some long-term sustainability down there that a lot of people, I think, are underestimating. So I’ll turn it over to Clay to add any additional color, but the Eagle Ford is an area I can tell you that we’re very excited about.
Clay Gaspar:
Yes. Thanks for those comments, Rick. I think that’s spot on. Kevin, the only thing I wanted to add is, I do show a relatively meaningful drop, probably about like a 10% or so drop in capital, about $75 million, a rough number I had from ‘23 to ‘24. And again, that’s with single-digit production growth on top of that. Now, there is some well mix in there. We have a joint venture partner on part of the assets. We own the rest. We operate kind of a normal fashion. So, there is some change in mix. But from a capital efficiency standpoint, things are moving in the right direction, and we continue to see upside potential on this particular asset.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Scott Gruber from Citigroup. Scott, your line is now open.
Scott Gruber:
Yes. Good morning. The 10% improvement in productivity that you forecast in the Permian is normalized on a 10,000-foot lateral. Is there going to be a step-up in lateral length in the play as you refocus on the quarter, or is that going to be rather consistent?
Clay Gaspar:
Scott, it’s pretty consistent year-over-year. We are always trying to drill longer laterals. It’s kind of the opportunity set in front of us. We are always – we feel very confident in our ability to deliver three-mile laterals from a productivity, from an operational standpoint. The land mix doesn’t always allow for that. So, we are going to be north of two miles, but not too much north, and it will be fairly consistent year-over-year.
Scott Gruber:
Got it. And then just a nuance one on the 1Q guide. Last quarter, you provided that 305 of oil per day. Today, you are guiding for 640 with a 2% weather impact. But 640, 48% is oil cut, you are kind of still around maybe even slightly better than that 305 figure than last quarter. So, the question is, is the underlying trend in oil production slightly better, and it’s just being offset by a bigger weather impact, or is the weather risk that was incorporated in that original 305 guide kind of similar to what actually transpired?
Clay Gaspar:
Scott, I think it’s really the well mix. We have got some wells coming on, the Williston wells are exceptionally high oil cut. We continue to bring those in. I think that’s just working in our favor in that regard.
Scott Gruber:
Okay. And I appreciate it. Thank you.
Clay Gaspar:
Thanks sir.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Scott Hanold from RBC. Scott, your line is now open.
Scott Hanold:
Yes. Thanks. If I can delve into the infrastructure a little bit more. On Page 13, you obviously bucket three areas that you are focused on in terms of building support for the 2024 plan. As you think about the Permian development over the next 2 years, 3 years, 4 years, like which area really are you focused most primarily on to make sure you are executing on the plan? Like where do you see the risk of the biggest constraint, I guess is the question?
Clay Gaspar:
Scott, is all of the above an option. No, I mean seriously, any one of these things gets constrained and you are dead in the water, or at least constrained. And so we work really hard to not just build what is the best rate of return opportunity set in our portfolio, but we are very thoughtful about modeling our own infrastructure, even modeling third-party infrastructure if we don’t feel that they do an adequate job. And then there is the occasional curve ball where one of the third-parties maybe even in the electrification front, can’t come through with their normal pace. We need to have enough flexibility, enough forethought, enough creativity to be able to solve some of those problems essentially for them. So, one of the things I mentioned is building out more of our own electrical infrastructure. We have about 700 miles of electric lines in our basin already. We generate some of our own power. We have our own micro grids. And this is really taking the bull by the horns out of necessity, because otherwise, the local power providers were not going to be able to keep up. So, those are the kind of proactive steps that we really leaned in probably with double effort in ‘23 because some of these historical norms have really changed, and we want to make sure that we didn’t just bring on a bunch of wells and then be abnormally constrained and have to answer questions about why our wells are so terrible. So anyway, I feel really good about the work that we did in ‘23 that we continue to do in ‘24, but look, we are not out of the woods. We continue to look at infrastructure needs in ‘26, ‘27 and ‘28. We are working with partners as best we can, and I really think we have a great runway ahead of us. But the team is always on caution to make sure that we are prepared for those unforeseen challenges.
Scott Hanold:
Okay. Thanks for that. And as my follow-up, it’s going to be on M&A. And I was hoping to get a deeper sense of how you think about M&A. And it’s really two parts. One, first, if you can comment on some of the recent deals that have been out there, if you all participated and really what was the gives and takes of why – if you did, why Devon didn’t went out. And then number two, you all mentioned obviously, you are a multi-basin player, but like when you think about like does Devon have the scale right now that it would like? And if you were to add, would it be really most a Permian thing, or are other of those basins open to more significant M&A for Devon?
Rick Muncrief:
Yes, it’s Rick. I will field that one. Number one, I really like the scale that we currently have. We have a deep resource base across our five basins that we are in. So, I feel really good about that. Now, we are always – as I mentioned earlier, we are always going to be looking to be opportunistic to add resource, to add investment opportunities at a reasonable value, at an attractive value for our shareholders. I think that’s just really incumbent upon this management team to always being on the hunt there. That being said, we are going to be very disciplined. Some of the recent transactions, I think that were out there that were announced. When I look at the metrics on those, those were rich, it really were. And others, there have been a couple of them that were hats off, very nice deals that we certainly weren’t participating in those processes, but good for them. And that’s great, congratulations. But for us, I want to just continue to drive on the point. We are going to continue to be disciplined and we have to balance short-term accretion with long-term, how that fits in for the long haul for Devon. We are a 50-year-old company. We are not a 5-year-old company. And we have to be really, really thoughtful about that. And so we will continue to look for opportunities, but we are going to maintain that discipline. And at the end of the day, we have a deep, deep resource base. And I think that’s something that, that is incumbent upon this management team that we have to continue to drive home and we have to demonstrate not only how we execute, hitting numbers, exceeding whatever that is, but we just have to do a wonderful job in working with the outside community, outside investors on the resource that we have in-house currently.
Scott Hanold:
And regionally, is there an area you focus a little bit more time on? Is it Permian, Bakken, Eagle Ford, like are all areas of focus?
Rick Muncrief:
I think for us, we are going to stick to our strategy. It’s real simply put. We want to stay as oily as we can for as long as we can. And I think we are seeing that play out in real time with – I am not sure we got where gas prices are as we sit here this morning again, but it’s up $2. That’s not a good spot to be in. And so for us, we want to stay as oily and as liquid rich as we possibly can because throughout the entirety of my career, that’s been the place to go. Now, we are all – I think we all are optimistic about what the future of natural gas could be. And we spent quite a bit of time in D.C. talking about the importance of tone, the importance of consistency with some of our public policy, those sorts of things, and then our foreign trade policies. And so we – so for us, I think near-term, to answer your question, we are going to be very interested in oil-prone basins. Oil is going to drive the margins for the foreseeable future, and that’s kind of where we want to be.
Scott Hanold:
Thanks for the color.
Rick Muncrief:
You bet.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Charles Meade from Johnson Rice. Charles, you may proceed with your question.
Charles Meade:
Good morning Rick, Clay and Jeff. Rick, I want to ask a question about your Delaware Basin completion crews. And more specifically, if you could give us a sense of the composition of the four fleets you are running right now, whether those are all zipper fracs or whether there is any some are frac crews in there? And we are – in the bigger sense, where I am going with this, has there been any thought or is there any possibility of adjusting that mix to – so that you are more on a steady state program there?
Rick Muncrief:
Yes. I am going to let Clay answer the balance of that. But just in real time, just yesterday, I was talking to our – one of our completion managers down there and we are picking up the fourth crew as we mentioned, but the three that have been out there, the – it’s incredible, Charles, on the efficiencies and what we are doing out there. The number of stages and it’s interesting, there is – it’s healthy competition between the team members and certain of the companies that are involved with it and we are actively comparing and contrasting ways that we can get better and better. And at the end of the day, we want to make sure that we do this very, very safely and efficiently. And so we are constantly changing every pad has its unique characteristics. But I can tell you that more and more, we just see these efficiencies that are just incredible. And things that just 12 months ago, we knew that you would see some efficiencies, but we are exceeding some expectations. Clay, why don’t you maybe some follow-up Charles.
Clay Gaspar:
We have more simul frac coming – we are completing today, and more to come throughout the year and go forward. One of the challenge of simul frac, you really need to plan that 12 months or 18 months ahead when you are planning the well site location, how many wells on one particular location, because that enables more ability to do some of that. So, about 12 months ago, we started really kind of leaning in, building a little bit larger number of wells per pad instead of separate pads. That allows more simul frac opportunity, which we are seeing great results, and we are continuing to benefit from. We are also testing some very interesting things where we artificially tie pads together with some big lines between the two. So, there is some really creative stuff. But again, it’s a little below the radar, typically of what we talk about on earnings calls. But I can tell you that the teams are doing just amazing work and really adding material value through these efficiencies to the bottom line of Devon. So, really appreciate the great work there.
Charles Meade:
Got it. And then, Clay, I want to go back to your prepared comments, you were talking about – I think I heard you talk about some additional landing zones in the Wolfcamp B, and I am not sure I kind of – I caught it all when you were talking about it. So, I was wondering if you could elaborate a bit on that and perhaps including your answer, an indication, is this something that you are going to be – that you are working into the ‘24 program, or is this an out-year sort of project?
Clay Gaspar:
Yes. I think sometime last year, we are deep in the penalty box. We talked about the highlights of some of the great work that the team did around understanding the Wolfcamp B. Now, that work is manifesting and more of that be coming to kind of that front end of the priority list, really competitive, super accretive, and we are incorporating that landing zone into some of the development that we have during the course of ‘24 and beyond. And so here is how I would characterize it. This is landing zones that we knew were viable. We needed to test. We needed to understand. We needed to try some different configurations to really find the best approach. During the course of ‘22 and ‘23, we did that. We optimized a development approach. And now in ‘24, we are benefiting from some of that. So, again, it probably was lost in some of the shuffle last year, but this is work that we did during the course of ‘23 that we are significantly benefiting from. This expands what I would consider some of our really Tier 1 runway. It’s stuff that was a little further out in the priority on a risk basis as we de-risked it what it really has moved to the front of the pack, and we are really excited about the continued good work there.
Charles Meade:
Thanks for added detail.
Clay Gaspar:
You bet.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] And our next question comes from David Deckelbaum from Cowen. David, your line is now open.
David Deckelbaum:
Thanks for squeezing me in guys. I appreciate the time. Rick or Clay, I wanted to ask just, you talked about – Rick, obviously or Clay, the total dollar amount for the Delaware actually coming down this year, it looks like you are still obviously growing that asset. You guided obviously to a slight decline, I guess at a corporate level, I am wondering, when you think about capital allocation, should we be consistently thinking about the Delaware as a growth asset over the next several years, given the visibility that you have now where you can be allocating capital to within that basin?
Clay Gaspar:
I think it’s – I would put it in the same category as Devon. We are a low growth kind of zero to 5%. Delaware will play a certain role. Some quarters, some years, it’s going to be a little bit of a tick up. Others, it’s going to be relatively flat. But I wouldn’t think of it as a standout growth asset. We are really pleased with the year-over-year performance. As I mentioned, it did grow. We also were able to build a few extra DUCs during the course of the second half of last year that we were able to capture the benefit of in the first half of this year. So, there is kind of that going on in the background. But I wouldn’t say it’s materially out of step with overall Devon or with the other basins.
Rick Muncrief:
Hey David, it’s Rick. I will add that when we talk about it being flat to up slightly in the Delaware, that’s on the oil side. And as you think about an improving – structurally improving gas and NGL structure, you will see growth there. So, I think you can look at it from an equivalent standpoint, it is a growth basin and it’s going to continue to be. That’s what drove a lot of our 8% growth as a company last year. And so I think you are going to see that continue to play out. That’s not only true of us. That’s true of the entire Permian Basin, whether it’s on the Midland side or the Delaware side, you are going to continue to see gas production, NGL production continue to grow even in a flat oil scenario.
David Deckelbaum:
Thanks Rick and Clay. And maybe just Rick, one of the, I guess other parts of the capital budget that continues to grow every year, albeit still small as carbon capital. In a world where you are trying to enhance returns of capital to shareholders, could you kind of contextualize how you see that spend generating returns for Devon as a whole and why that’s sort of seeing a larger piece of the pie this year, albeit small?
Rick Muncrief:
Yes. I think it’s a really good question, and it’s a really important topic for us, only as Devon, but as an industry, and it’s something we are going to stay ahead of. We have changing regulations. Devon wants to make sure that we stay ahead of the curve. And these regulations are coming at us quickly. What a lot of people don’t understand is some of these regulations coming are so onerous that many of the low-volume wells that we have across this nation are going to end up being plugged. And so you are going to see oil and natural gas wells that basically are stripper wells, as we always reform to that are such a low volume. They just quite honestly, they cannot afford to spend capital on. And it’s just – it’s going to be a fact of life. And so there are studies by API and some of the other trade groups talk about that impact, but it is real. So, what Devon wants to do, we want to make sure that we are ahead of the curve, as I have said, and it’s something that we will – I think you will see over time is going to continue to creep up for the next 2 years or 3 years. We want to be very thoughtful about that and prudent with it and strategic about it. But it is something to – that we all just have to deal with. It’s a fact of life.
David Deckelbaum:
And just for my own edification, is that capital being earmarked for projects that would allow you to prolong production on some of these wells such as increasing methane capture, or is this capital associated were tied to plugging and abandoning some of those wells that would be more regulatory headaches?
Clay Gaspar:
David, what I would characterize most of it is, is retrofitting in existing facilities with better designs to lower emissions. And by the way, keep us well ahead of this coming regulation wave. So, you could look at this out of necessity. I think we are half a click ahead. We try and stay well ahead of just necessity. But these are regulations that we will always make sure that we are staying in front of to continue to reserve our important rights as an organization to provide energy to fuel the world. So, thanks again for the question, David.
David Deckelbaum:
Thanks guys.
Scott Coody:
Well, it looks like we have run a little bit past time here. So, I appreciate everyone’s interest in Devon today. And if you have any further questions, please don’t hesitate to reach out to the Investor Relations team at any time. Have a good day everyone.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today’s call. Thank you for joining. You may now disconnect your lines. Thank you.
Operator:
Hello, everyone, and welcome to Devon Energy Third Quarter Earnings Conference Call. At this time all participants are in a listen-only mode. This call is being recorded. I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Scott Coody, Vice President of Investor Relations. Sir, you may begin.
Scott Coody:
Good morning, and thank you for joining us on the call today. Last night, we issued an earnings release and presentation that cover our results for the quarter and updated outlook. Throughout the call today, we will make references to the earnings presentation to support prepared remarks, and these slides can be found on our website. Also joining me on the call today are Rick Muncrief, our President and CEO; Clay Gaspar, our Chief Operating Officer; Jeff Ritenour, our Chief Financial Officer; and a few other members of our senior management team. Comments today will include plans, forecasts and estimates that are forward-looking statements under U.S. securities law. These comments are subject to assumptions, risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from our forward-looking statements. Please take note of the cautionary language and risk factors provided in our SEC filings and earnings materials. With that, I'll turn the call over to Rick.
Rick Muncrief:
Thank you, Scott. It's a pleasure to be here this morning. We appreciate everyone taking the time to join us. For today, I plan to focus my comments on the trajectory of our business for the remainder of 2023 and highlight the steps we're taking to further improve capital efficiency as we head into 2024. Now let's start with a brief review of our financial and operating performance. In the third quarter, Devon delivered a production per share growth rate of 10% year-over-year. This strong growth rate was fueled by our franchise asset in the Delaware Basin, accretive acquisitions and an opportunistic share repurchases over the past year. On a barrel of oil equivalent basis, our total volumes were within the guidance range, but oil volumes were slightly softer due to select well performance in the Williston coupled with minor infrastructure constraints in the Delaware. We will cover the Delaware in greater detail later in the call, but these constraints were temporary and have a visible pathway to correction with the industry's ongoing build-out of infrastructure. Turning to capital for the quarter. With our disciplined plan, we've kept reinvestment rates to just over 50% of cash flow. This resulted in our free cash flow more than doubling versus the second quarter, and we rewarded shareholders with a 57% increase to our dividend payout. In the fourth quarter, we expect Devon's production to be around 650,000 Boe per day of which oil is expected to approximate 315,000 barrels per day. Now as a reminder, we dropped our fourth frac crew in the Delaware midyear to replenish our DUC inventory and the impact of this lower completion activity will lead to a minor decline in our production versus the third quarter. We've also modeled in the effects of project timing and weather impacts, some of which we've already experienced. However, we do expect our financial performance in the fourth quarter to be very strong with operating margins set to expand and free cash flow to be quite robust. Overall, the fourth quarter is set up to round out another successful year financially for our company. And while we have certainly faced some challenges this year, we're on track to deliver one of the best years in our 50-plus year history in terms of returns and free cash flow generation. Importantly, as we head into 2024, our focus remains the same. We intend to deliver growth on a per share basis and maximize free cash flow generation, while balancing the need to appropriately reinvest in our business for the future. To achieve these objectives, we have incorporated our learnings over the past year, pushed service costs lower and sharpen our capital allocation to deliver a step-change improvement in well productivity and efficiency. Now on Slide 8, we outlined the key attributes underpinning our improved outlook for 2024. First and foremost, with continued volatility in commodity pricing, we believe it is prudent to conduct – construct a capital plan with consistent activity levels to maintain production at a level around 650,000 Boe per day with oil at approximately 315,000 barrels per day. With ongoing macro uncertainty and with the ample spare capacity that OPEC+ possesses, we have no intention of adding incremental barrels into the market at this point in time. This disciplined approach reflects our commitment to pursuing value over volume and shareholders will benefit from our high-graded slate of development projects designed to enhance capital efficiency and returns on capital employed. To deliver this production profile in 2024, we anticipate a capital investment of $3.3 billion to $3.6 billion. This level of spending represents an improvement of 10% compared to 2023, and we expect to fund this program at pricing levels below $40 per barrel. In summary, we see delivering flat production for 10% less CapEx. Now turning to Slide 9. Our improved capital efficiency in 2024 is driven by concentrating more than 60% of our spending in the Delaware Basin. Our plan will shift a higher mix of activity to multizone Wolfcamp developments in New Mexico, which is the core of the play as infrastructure constraints have eased over the past and will continue over the coming months. We also plan to high-grade capital activity across other key assets in our portfolio. This includes limiting Williston Basin activity to only our highest impact opportunities and decreasing activity – appraisal activity in the Eagle Ford. With this refined capital allocation, we expect to improve well productivity by 5% to 10% in 2024, anchored by our franchise asset in the Delaware Basin. And lastly, we expect our capital efficiency to also benefit from improved service costs as contracts refresh over the next few quarters. Now with this operating plan in 2024, we are positioned to deliver free cash flow growth of around 20% in 2024 at $80 WTI pricing. As you can see on Slide 11, with this strong outlook that translates into a uniquely attractive free cash flow yield of 11%, which is up to 3x higher than what the broader equity markets can offer. Simply put, this is one of the most critical aspects of the Devon plan. On Slide 12, with the stream of free cash flow, as we've done in the past, we plan to target a cash return payout of around 70%, which is in line with our average annual payout to shareholders since we unveiled this industry-first model in 2020. A key priority heading into next year is to continue to grow our fixed dividend. We believe the certainty that comes with a fixed dividend is valued by shareholders and is better capitalized within our equity price, especially if the yield is competitive with that of the broader markets. With the remainder of our free cash flow, we will stay flexible as we always have been by judiciously allocating toward the best opportunities, whether that be increased stock buybacks, variable dividends or taking additional steps to improve our balance sheet. However, given our current stock price, we expect to pursue buybacks at a level that will most likely result in our variable payout being below the 50% threshold in the near term to capture the incredible value our equity offers at these trading levels. And with that, I'll now turn the call over to Clay for a rundown of our recent operational performance.
Clay Gaspar:
Thank you, Rick and good morning, everyone. For today, I plan to focus my comments on our Delaware Basin operations as well as outlining the actions we plan to take to sharpen our capital allocation and drive efficiencies in our business over the next year. Let's begin on Slide 15 with an overview of our Delaware Basin activity, which accounts for roughly 60% of our capital spending for this year. With this level of investment during the quarter, we ran a consistent program of 16 rigs and brought on 59 new wells. Well productivity was very strong with 30-day rates averaging 3,000 Boe per day and improved average productivity combined with the benefits of elevated completion activity in the first half of the year drove another quarter of production growth from our franchise asset. That said, our growth rate in the quarter was held back by a few wind and lightning storms that impacted power for our facilities as well as our third-party infrastructure. These storms stranded a few thousand barrels per day during the quarter. The infrastructure and the wells are back online, and we don't see any negative impacts on the ultimate recovery of these wells. On Slide 16, you can see our impressive well productivity in the Delaware Basin during the quarter. It was highlighted by three important projects. On the far left of the slide, Devon's top result for the quarter was the Bora Bora project. Developing the Upper Wolfcamp at our Todd area, with 30-day rates from Bora Bora, averaging 4,600 Boes per well, with the cost coming in under budget, these returns are expected to be well into the triple digits for this project. Another noteworthy project was our CBR 17 development in Texas, where 30-day production rates averaged 4,100 Boe per day per well. The CBR 17 results were enabled by a 3,000-acre trade completed about a year ago that I highlighted on the previous call. This key trade, which unlocked our ability to pursue extended reach laterals by extending our laterals to two miles for this project, we added several million dollars of net present value in this project alone. On the right, another key result for us was the Haflinger project, where we co-developed multiple zones in the Wolfcamp A and B. While rates were restricted due to infrastructure, recoveries on this are on track to reach 1.5 million Boe per day per well – excuse me, per well. With solid returns from our Wolfcamp B appraisal today, we now plan on bringing forward of this opportunity by co-developing the Upper Wolfcamp where possible in the future activity. Looking forward to the project level details, Slide 17 provides a nice visual of the well productivity we achieved in the Delaware Basin during the third quarter. On the left, as I touched on earlier, 30-day average rates for the Delaware wells we brought online reached 3,000 Boe per day. These high-impact wells exhibited a 20%-plus improvement from the first half of 2023, reaching the highest quarterly level in more than a year. This performance is great to see, given our well productivity over the past year has been held back slightly by elevated appraisal requirements and infrastructure constraints. The 2023 infrastructure constraints resulted in a shifting a portion of our capital to less prolific areas in the basin and at times, constrained peak rates across a subset of our new wells. As you can see on the right-hand side of the slide, we also made progress improving our cycle times across our drilling and completions operations in the basin. Third quarter results were highlighted by our completion space exceeding 2,000 feet per day for the fifth consecutive quarter, and we drilled several pacesetting wells that achieved spud rig release times of less than 15 days. With the momentum we've established, we believe we can build upon these results and capture further efficiencies and as we head into 2024. Turning to Slide 18, as Rick touched on earlier, we're excited about the plan we have in place to drive improved well productivity in the Delaware with our 2024 plan. With the ongoing industry build-out of infrastructure in the form of electrification, compression, localized processing and downstream takeaway, we plan to allocate approximately 70% of our capital to the Delaware Basin and specifically to the core of New Mexico, while we can optimize the remaining activity across our acreage in Texas. As you can see on the chart on the left, by refining our focus on high-impact Wolfcamp zones in the core of the play with less appraisal requirements, we expect Delaware productivity to improve by 10% in 2024. Looking beyond 2024, we have a long runway of high value inventory in the Delaware that positions Devon to deliver highly competitive results for the foreseeable future. As we've discussed in the past, we've identified more than a decade of risked inventory across the Delaware and we expect to steadily replenish this inventory over time as we successfully characterized the many upside opportunities across this back play resource. In addition to our internal estimates, there are plenty of third-party services that can provide in-depth evaluation of our resource base. A great example of this on Slide 19 and that references the recent Enverus Permian inventory report. While I won't go through all of the details on the slide, there are three key takeaways you should have. First, one of the – we have one of the largest remaining inventories of any operator in the Delaware. Second, the quality of this inventory is excellent with returns exceeding a PV-10 breakeven at $40 WTI. And third, we possess significant upside to our risk resource from many known geological viable zones that have yet to be fully characterized. So in summary, with the Delaware accounting for roughly 60% of Devon's total risk resource, we're going to be delivering some excellent results for quite some time. And with that, I'll turn the call to Jeff for a financial review. Jeff?
Jeff Ritenour:
Thanks, Clay. I'll spend my time today reviewing our financial performance in the third quarter and discussing our cash return approach for the future. In general, revenues and expenses came in line with expectations for most categories in the third quarter. However, high natural gas price realizations and lower tax rate due to R&D tax credits taken in the quarter drove our earnings beat versus the Wall Street consensus. Putting it all together, operating cash flow totaled $1.7 billion in the third quarter with capital reinvestment rates at 52% of cash flow, generating $843 million of free cash flow and more than twofold increase versus the prior period. With this free cash flow, a key priority for us was to strengthen our financial position. In August, we paid off $242 million of maturing debt, and we bolstered liquidity with cash balances increasing by 56% to $761 million. With these actions, Devon exited the quarter with a net debt-to-EBITDA ratio of just over 0.5 turn. Moving forward, we plan to add to our financial strength in each quarter by committing around 30% of our free cash flow back to the balance sheet. This will allow us to further pare down our absolute debt balance with repayment of roughly $1 billion of maturities coming due in 2024 and 2025 and maintain a minimum cash balance in excess of $500 million. Cash returns to shareholders increased materially in the third quarter. Based on third quarter results, we declared a fixed plus variable dividend of $0.77 per share, an increase of 57% from the prior quarter. This dividend payout represents an attractive annualized yield of over 6% at today's share price. In addition to the dividend, we have a $3 billion share repurchase authorization in place. To-date, we've repurchased 400 million shares at a total cost of $2.1 billion. With this program, we are on pace to decrease Devon's outstanding share count by up to 9%. Although we temporarily paused our repurchase activity in the third quarter, retire debt and – excuse me, and to build cash, we continue to review buyback – or we continue to view buybacks as a critically important tool for us to compound per share growth for investors over time. As Rick stated earlier, we'll target 70% of free cash flow for cash returns to shareholders moving forward. With the recent weakness in our share price, investors should expect us to be an aggressive buyer of our equity once we come out of the earnings blackout and the general weighting of cash returns to be balanced towards share repurchases and our growing fixed dividend over the near term. With that, I'll turn the call back to Rick for some closing comments.
Rick Muncrief:
Thank you, Jeff. I would like to close today by reiterating a few key messages from our prepared remarks. Number one, we plan to incorporate our learnings from the past year, tighten a few things up and refine our capital allocation in 2024 to deliver a step-change improvement in capital efficiency. Number two; this improved capital efficiency is anchored by our franchise asset in the Delaware Basin, where we expect well productivity to improve by up to 10% year-over-year. Number three, with our long-duration resource base, we have a depth of inventory to deliver sustainable results through the cycle. And number four, we are deeply committed to a disciplined pursuit of per share value creation and our carefully designed cash term framework that has the flexibility to allocate free cash flow across multiple avenues to optimize shareholder value. We've demonstrated that and we'll continue to do so in the future. And now with that, I'll now turn the call back over to Scott for Q&A.
Scott Coody:
Thanks, Rick. We'll now open the call to Q&A. Please limit yourself to one question and a follow up. This will allow us to get to more of your questions on the call today. With that, operator, we'll take our first question.
Operator:
Thank you. [Operator Instructions] First question comes from Doug Leggate from Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Doug, your line is now open, please proceed.
Doug Leggate:
Thank you. Good morning, everyone, and thanks for having me on. Rick, obviously, the issues in the Bakken and North Dakota are obviously well telegraphed at this point. Your commentary in the slide deck suggests that you’re taking steps to improve productivity. I wonder if you just walk us through what some of those steps are in terms of how the market can get confidence in the results. And at the same time, perhaps you could address your latest thoughts on inventory depth in that asset.
Rick Muncrief:
Good question. One of the things that we’ve talked about in improving productivity, really across the company is focusing on capital program as we go into 2024. Obviously, throughout this past year, we’ve done a fair amount of assessment across our resource base and virtually all of our basins. And so I think that what we have learned, we’re going to watch the performance from those wells that we did the assessment on. And then furthermore, as we’ve talked about, really zone in on some of our most productive areas. And so I think while the market may not have fully appreciated the value of assessment work, we know over the long haul that’s how you truly build inventory organically, and it’s very, very helpful for us. So I think that’s the thing that investors need to watch for is we’re going to stay very focused there. Can you repeat the second part of your question?
Doug Leggate:
Yes. And just for Mr. Coody, this is not a second question…
Rick Muncrief:
Okay. I was expecting it then. Yes, so…
Doug Leggate:
Yes, inventory in North Dakota.
Rick Muncrief:
Right. Well, I mentioned the – that’s how you can build inventory organically. And I think that that’s the thing I really value about the staff that we have here. We’ve got the depth and the breadth, and we talk about the resource that we have here in-house. And so at times you need to spend a little money assessing some of those resources. That’s what we’ve done in 2023. And so what you’re hearing us say today, we’ve learned some things, we’re tightening some things up, and we’re going to watch some performance, and we’re going to be very, very focused going into 2024. Clay, you have anything, you want to add to that?
Clay Gaspar:
Yes. Doug, I’ll just add to that. I appreciate Rick’s comments. And one thing we’ve learned, we’ve been very open on the amount of surprise we’ve had specifically around some of the partially depleted wells that we’ve drilled. We’ve gotten operationally better. We’ve made three or four very specific changes that have improved how we develop those wells, how we bring them online, how we keep them online, small things like artificial lift and even the design of the completion itself. And so as we get better, that improves the productivity, ultimately the economics of those wells in the later life. And so those are learnings that eventually will apply to lots of other basins and feel real confident that given that same circumstance, we now have a better arsenal of tools to approach those wells.
Doug Leggate:
Okay. We’ll watch with interest. Thanks for that, Clay. Gosh, I’m torn on what to ask next, but I’m going to go with the variable dividend question. M&A was the other one, Rick, but I’m guessing you wouldn’t answer that. I guess, Jeff, you – sounds like you’re starting to recognize the opportunity to transfer value from debt to equity with your balance sheet comment, but you haven’t ruled out the variable dividend despite the comments around buybacks. Why not just take the variable off the table? Because if I may say so, it seems to me your share price hasn’t had any value recognition for that whatsoever.
Jeff Ritenour:
Yes. I appreciate it, Doug. Yes, we understand the bias that the market’s had for share repurchases, and that’s certainly going to be our bias going forward. But we – frankly, we always think the variable dividend can be a component of our framework and expect it to be as we move forward. I appreciate your comments on the balance sheet because again, I’ll just remind folks, as always, that’s our primary priority as we work our way into any year and any budget. We want to make sure we maintain the financial strength. And as you heard in my opening comments, we’re committed to continuing to reduce our absolute debt level. Beyond that, we’re going to grow the fixed dividend as we’ve talked about as well. We always take that up with our Board in the first quarter of the upcoming year. And as we highlighted it in our materials, we expect to grow the fixed dividend again next year. Beyond that, I think it’s – at least in our view, it’s pretty clear that the equity price is disconnected from the fundamentals of our business. And moving forward here in the near-term, we’re going to lean in on the share repurchases. And as Rick said in his comments, that could have an impact on the variable dividend going forward. But I don’t want to exclude it as an option for us because frankly we think it’s a key component of continuing to deliver cash returns to shareholders. But without doubt our bias is going to be towards the share repo here in the near-term.
Doug Leggate:
That’s very clear. Thanks very much, guys.
Rick Muncrief:
Thank you, Doug.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Nitin Kumar from Mizuho. Nitin, your line is now open. Please go ahead.
Nitin Kumar:
Hey, good morning, guys, and thanks for taking my question.
Rick Muncrief:
Good morning.
Nitin Kumar:
Rick, it’s good to see the refocused energy around the Permian. I want to touch a little bit. You show about 3,000 potential locations in the Delaware in your deck. As you go back to the New Mexico Wolfcamp, the specific area that you’re targeting, can you talk a little bit about how much of that inventory is focused on that area alone?
Rick Muncrief:
Yes, a lot of it, to be honest with Nitin is and I think that we’ve actually talked here internally, if you think about our rig count, about two-thirds of our rigs that we have run – are in that area. So that's a good way to look at it. So two-thirds of that number that you see is pretty accurate, we think. Clay, anything you want to add to that?
Clay Gaspar:
Well, as we think about kind of this 70-30 split, it does parallel our inventory. And so we think about most of our inventory being on that north side. Clearly, in 2023, we were very clear, we want to do a little bit more assessment work, spread some of that out. As I mentioned in my prepared remarks, we had to reach in a little bit deeper in some of the areas that we wouldn't normally have kind of reach into that bolt-in. That kind of diluted a little bit the average productivity that we delivered. I think working through that inventory – or, excuse me, working through that assessment work and really having a better understanding of where that sits. We're now leveraging those learnings into the activity in 2024 and then also allowing that infrastructure to mature a little bit also allows us to leverage back the benefits of the work we did in 2023 for the benefiting 2024. So there's a good parallel there, and I don't see us falling out of too much out of sync with that inventory run.
Nitin Kumar:
Great. Thanks. As I follow up, Rick, I'm going to not assume that you won't answer the M&A question. So look, industry consolidation is certainly front and center. You have been part of that consolidation in the past. Can we maybe get some thoughts – updated thoughts on how you're viewing the go forward path for Devon, either as an independent company or as a consolidator?
Rick Muncrief:
Yes. And I think it's something that's very – obviously very topical in light of some of the recent transactions out there. Really, as you know, you've been covering this sector a long time, many people on the call are, but really it's part of the fabric of this industry, the sector. The one thing it won't change is our approach. And we've always had been very compelled, just have a high bar, be very disciplined and make sure that it fits within the framework that we have. And as you've heard Jeff talk about in my prepared remarks, I mean, right now, we see one of the greatest, most clear cut opportunities is just ourselves with our share repurchases. And so that's how we're looking at it. I do think that you'll continue to see consolidation. We've been on record as saying we support continued consolidation in the sector. We think it's the right thing to do for investors. But as far as Devon's participation, I'm going to go back to those key elements and we're going to have a high bar, be very disciplined, be very thoughtful, and make sure we can sell that to shareholders, that it's the right thing to do.
Nitin Kumar:
Thanks, Rick. Thanks for the answers.
Rick Muncrief:
You bet, Nitin.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Neil Mehta from Goldman Sachs. Neil, your line is now open. Please go ahead.
Neil Mehta:
Yes. Good morning, team. The question I had was – first question was just around the cadence of production, obviously, Q4 and Q1 a little softer and then a nice ramp over the course of the year. Can you talk about the confidence interval you have around that ramp as you get into – through 2024 and help the market get comfortable on the oil side in particular, as that's been a little bit shakier this year.
Rick Muncrief:
Yes, thanks, Neil. I appreciate the question. We've been staring at this kind of saddle in fourth quarter, first quarter for quite a while. We don't provide detailed guidance, typically ahead of the coming quarter. And so having the activity really that fourth frac crew in the front half of 2023, we've benefited certainly in this quarter and we'll see a rollover in the fourth and first before we build that duct cadence back up again and we're able to bring that fourth frac crew up. That provides some lumpiness. We realize that's not ideal. We're trying to make sure that we telegraph not just this fourth quarter, but the first quarter has a little bit of a saddle as well. I think once we get that frac crew back, we reestablish the higher rate. It's pretty – it’s steadier throughout the year. So think of two, three, four being a little bit flatter. The fourth could come down just a little bit, but probably not quite as much as a saddle as we saw in this fourth and first coming quarters.
Neil Mehta:
Thank you. And then talk about the CapEx guide for 2024. It's a little bit lower than consensus, which is good, although partially offset by lower activity or lower production. So maybe just talk about what gets to the top end, what gets to the bottom end of the range and the modeling that went into building that 2024 forecast.
Jeff Ritenour:
Neil, so we do a lot of work, as you can imagine, we talked last quarter about some of the work we do with the board and back in September really looking out five and ten years. And that leads to a kind of a more focused look this time of year, November; we have a call with the board. We're really starting to kind of firm things up. During that process, we run lots of sensitivities, the what ifs. We think about different deflation cadences, how that impacts us, different capital allocation. And what we've gotten to is we feel really good about this plan, refocusing as we've talked about on the Delaware Basin, benefiting from the work that we've done in 2023, around some of the assessment work. And so leveraging into that, we feel really good about the continued focus of the activity that we have and paring back on some of the other basins that probably could use a little bit more breathing room. And then feel really good about the deflation that we’ve baked in. Call it roughly 5% or so that we have in hand today we feel really good about those numbers. The balance, the remaining 5% is a little bit pair back in activity, and then of course, we’re striving to exceed those expectations every day inside our shop.
Neil Mehta:
Thanks, Team.
Rick Muncrief:
Thanks, Neil.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Scott Gruber from Citigroup. Scott, your line is now open. Please go ahead.
Scott Gruber:
Yes. Good morning. Want to get just a bit more detail on the infrastructure constraints in the Delaware. It sounds like it’s starting to improve. But are you still seeing some peak rates constrained? Is it still impacting where your rigs are running today? And if the answer is yes, when do you think these constraints can be fully alleviated?
Rick Muncrief:
Scott, the good news is we’re in the hottest basin in the world. The bad news is when you’re in the hottest basin in the world you’re always going to have some kind of constraint. And so we work really closely with our third-parties on trying to stay ahead of that. In fact, we do proactive work on even modeling their own infrastructure. We’ve done some big projects this year. The Stateline processing facility that we are part of, we added a 200 million a day to that processing that not only benefits Stateline, but certainly some of the gas that we have in New Mexico as well. We worked very hard on some of the water infrastructure, made some great improvements on that, some redundancy there. So we feel really good about that really good work. Now we’re really focused on some of the electrification. While we’ve made good progress, I can tell you that’s going to be a continued focus for us and for industry. The weather specifically, around July, we had some serious windstorm blew over a lot of power lines. And as you can imagine, it’s not just getting those power lines back up, it’s not just getting our wells back up, but it’s all of the third-party infrastructure that’s daisy chained together. And so that’s where we saw some of the real tightness of that infrastructure, not having alternative outlets that you typically would in a looser environment. So that continues to build out. There’s been some really material improvement. But just know that this is a very active basin. Certainly Devon’s not the only company very active in the basin. And so we’ll continue to try our best to stay ahead, not just on our own controllable activity, but working with our third-parties so that they can stay ahead with us.
Scott Gruber:
Got it. And just a quick one following-up on the budget. Do you have a rough sense for the well count that’s incorporated in your budget for next year?
Rick Muncrief:
Yes, I’m pulling the number now. It’s about 400, yes; it’s about 400 wells, relatively flat. It looks like we kind of peak a little bit more towards the middle two quarters, but relatively flat during the year.
Scott Gruber:
Okay. I appreciate it. Thank you.
Rick Muncrief:
Thanks, sir.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Neal Dingmann from Truist. Neal, your line is now open. Please go ahead.
Neal Dingmann:
Good morning, guys. My first question is just on the Permian infrastructure. I’m just wondering Rick and Clay have highlighted and I think been out there about the lack of infrastructure in recent quarters. I’m just wondering, was some that – did that come as surprise or was it you were thinking that some was going to be built out? I’m just wondering if you could speak to maybe what had changed and then maybe speak to the build out you’re seeing now and then what you anticipate next year.
Rick Muncrief:
Yes, I think you try and plan this stuff years in advance because many of these big projects are multi-year projects and sometimes those projects slip. Ultimately, funding decisions are outside of your control. So some of those things can be typically accounted for and baked in. What we’re really focused on in 2023 is making sure that we’re honoring our flaring percentages. We’ve done an amazing job of driving that down. We’re really thoughtful about these outlets and making sure that we have the ability to flow these wells back. And so we want to make sure that we’re staying ahead of any bumps and disruptions. As you know, in the New Mexico side, it’s a lot more federal land. You’re relying a lot more on the BLM, even small things like right away, which are pretty standard course take a little bit longer these days. And so during that transition, when we’re accounting for that and our third-party partners are accounting for that, there can be a little bit of an extended drag. I think we’ve gotten a lot of really good important progress during the course of 2023 that we will benefit from. But we will continue to see constraints all the way around the Permian Basin as this is a materially growing basin that’s so incredibly prolific.
Neal Dingmann:
Yeah. Well said. And then my second question is just on your comment over high grading the upcoming multi-zone Wolfcamp wells in New Mexico. I’m just wondering, was it the infrastructure or what was the limitations to not high grade this Delaware sooner? And I’m just wondering what kind of runway do you all anticipate you’ll have in this core area?
Clay Gaspar:
Yes. Neal, I would say it was a combination of – we did some assessment work. I highlighted on the last call, specifically the B zone. Really understanding, how does this work as we co-develop? How does this work independently? What’s the right business decision? And that takes time to evaluate. So that’s some of the things that we did dozens of other tests as well. But some of the work that we invested in during the course of 2023. Some of the things that we’re learning, obviously, we’re applying to 2024. And then parallel to that was the infrastructure comments that that I just went through. So I think there’s a parallel as we think about what this concentration of activity means. Again, I’ll go back to the kind of two-thirds, one third of our inventory is in the New Mexico side. So we’re not overly leveraging New Mexico versus Texas. Now, we’re certainly high-grading. We’re always trying to drill our best stuff first, but that’s no different than what we’re doing in other basins. And obviously, other operators are doing as well.
Neal Dingmann:
Thanks, Clay. Looking forward to the results.
Clay Gaspar:
Me too, Neil.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Charles Meade from Johnson Rice. Charles, your line is now open. Please go ahead.
Charles Meade:
Good morning, Rick, Clay and Jeff. Clay, I want to take one more run at the Delaware Basin infrastructure question. As you were making your prepared remarks or earlier Q&A, I wrote down there’s electricity build-out, compression, processing, takeaway and then also you added water. And so as you look at – if those are the right categories, as you look at those, could you tell us what’s your best guess for 2024? Or is it going to be your top one or top two concerns? And I’m less thinking about where you have work to do, but more in the framing of what’s – which of those is most likely to emerge as a bottleneck in 2024?
Clay Gaspar:
Yes, Charles, it’s a bit of a whack-a-mole kind of opportunity. You bring on these big pads, and you’re really focused on gas takeaway or gas compression or processing. But as you bring these wells on, you’re also testing water. What we’re seeing is with everyone – the incredible electrical demand, some of the electricity providers are struggling to keep up with that growth. So we’re moving forward with some things to take a little bit more self-control on some of those projects and behind-the-meter opportunities to control our own destiny even a little bit more. But I can tell you as soon as we get one issue resolved, there’s other issues that pop up, and that’s just part of working in a very hot dynamic play. Now, what I will add to that, and I think is very important, we also see these as not just constraints, but opportunities. And we truly believe if we can identify them early, then we have options. We can wire around the issue. We can figure out how to work with third parties and develop and make sure that, that is built in time for our needs. We can certainly choose to drill alternate wells, reshuffle the portfolio or number four, we can lean in and be aggressive about capturing that value and leveraging that. And you’ve seen us do that a number of times. So I think the most important thing is being opportunistic, make sure we’re really thinking far out ahead and making sure we’re acting on that.
Rick Muncrief:
Charles, this is Rick. I’d like to – I’d like to add. Yes, sorry. One thing I’d like to add is, we are really pleased with how the midstream providers are building out their capacity. So we think that some here in the next six quarters to eight quarters, you’re going to see another 2 Bcf a day, plus or minus, in the Permian Basin of processing. So when you step back and you look at the capital investment on the midstream, you look at the long-haul getting pipe built in the ground, getting those getting out of the gas to the Gulf Coast area and then over into Louisiana and there are areas like that for the LNG facilities. We just think the – the right amount of focus is being placed on it, and I feel very confident in future. And the other thing I’d say, I’ve got is a pretty good time to interject this, but we continue to see growth into Mexico. That is a market that has grown from 2 Bcf a day up 6 Bcf, 7 Bcf a day, and there’s no basin more well suited for that, I think, than the Permian when you start looking at Western margins of the Permian Basin. So whether you’re on the Delaware side, the Midland side, you’re going to benefit I think, from that Mexican growth over the next decade or two.
Charles Meade:
Thank you for that elaboration Rick. And Clay I was going to say I came up – I consider using that term whack-a-mole, but I came up with the term cycling bottlenecks instead.
Rick Muncrief:
You’re reliant than I am.
Charles Meade:
A follow-up the question – feel free to use that one. A follow-up question perhaps for Jeff. Jeff, I think you clearly sent the message that you guys are tilting towards buybacks in the current circumstances that you see. But I wonder if you could elaborate a bit more on the framework that you guys have used to come to that conclusion. And with an eye with an eye towards if we do have the happy evolution where your stock price does go up at what point does it flip back towards the – more towards a variable dividend?
Jeff Ritenour:
Yes. I appreciate that, Charles. And I think your last comment is important because that’s why we want to maintain flexibility and we believe the framework that we have today allows for that as we kind of navigate the different market conditions and whether that’s specific to Devon or on a more macro basis. As it relates to how we evaluate the share repurchase, I think I’ve talked about this in the past, but just like you all, we have our own internal models, obviously, around intrinsic value, but we also watch closely how our peers are trading, how we’re trading relative to them. And I think without question, you’ve seen compression of our multiple over the last 12 months. And so we sit today, it feels pretty clear to us. Given what we know and how we feel about the go-forward business, which I thought Clay did a great job of articulating our game plan here over the next 12 months. We feel like it’s a right time to jump in and be more aggressive on the share repo than we’ve been in the past. And so you’ll see us execute that over the coming quarters. And it’s always a little bit challenging with the earnings blackouts that we have as it relates to the timing of how that plays out. But we’ve got a game plan to go execute on that and be pretty consistent as we move forward over the next several quarters.
Charles Meade:
Jeff, thanks for the detail.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Matthew Portillo from TPH. Matthew, your line is now open. Please go ahead.
Matthew Portillo:
Good morning, all. Maybe starting out a question for Clay. I was just curious if you could speak to some of the learnings from the down spacing tests and the Eagle Ford, maybe as it relates to the type curve performance on those titer space wells. And how many of your tills in 2023 were impacted by these tests versus kind of the high grading plan heading into 2024 that might improve that capital efficiency?
Clay Gaspar:
Yes. Thanks for the question, Matt. I’d say it’s all a very much a work in progress. Definitely the South Texas Eagle Ford area is a maturing basin, similar to Williston, but very different in many ways. The rock is incredibly forgiving in the sense of down spacing refracs. We continue to find and uncover new ways to extract more and more of that oil in place. So we’re very encouraged with that. Now that said, it doesn’t always come out exactly as planned. I would say it was less about the learnings around down spacing more, a little bit about regional. And so as we moved into specific areas, we found that one, the recipe from what we call the Black Hawk area kind of our legacy business, isn’t exactly the same recipe as we reply to our Falcon, the new assets. And so some of those learnings certainly have accounted in for the results in 2023. We have a little bit less activity during this quarter. So you saw the oil production rollover second quarter, third, I’ll caution to look back, make sure you look back at the first quarter because we had about a 10% improvement or increase in production quarter-over-quarter from one to two, and then a down from two to three. So that’s more related to activity, less about individual well results. But as we continue to explore refracs down spacing combinations of how we do this co-development, I would say we’re very encouraged about what we’re seeing there. And this rock continues to be the rock that keeps on giving.
Matthew Portillo:
Perfect. And then as a follow-up question, maybe for Rick or for Clay like the shift here and further improvement on the capital efficiency into 2024, I guess one of the questions that continues to come up, and Rick, you highlighted in your prepared remarks that we’re kind of in an uncertain time with spare capacity within OPEC and kind of the volatility in the crude markets as well as what might be a challenged 2024 gas market. Just curious, as you guys think through your capital allocation plans for 2024, where do things stand at the moment in the Powder River Basin and the Anadarko, just thinking through the return profile there versus areas like the Delaware and is there further optimization that could occur if we end up in a bit of a lower commodity price environment?
Rick Muncrief:
Yes. It’s a really good question, Matt. I think I’m going to start the Anadarko there. So we actually were running four rigs. We dropped a rig as you probably recall mid-year. The Dow partnership we have is going really well. Even though the strip is supportive for gas, the outlook we think is really good. One of the things that we were faced with or we made the decision to do is just scale back at capital just a little bit and going from four to three rigs. We think that’s the right thing to do. Obviously, the promote keeps those returns in a pretty good spot. So that’s how we’re looking at that. I think, as we go into 2024, we plan to keep a three-rig program is our plan. Now up in the Powder, we – our original plan contemplated running two rigs, possibly even considering a third rig up there just because some of the encouraging results. But the fact of the matter is that we are still challenged somewhat on the well cost a little bit. And that some of that’s just a function of your activity level being somewhat depressed quite honestly, or slower than you need to drive those costs down. We’ve made a decision to be just returns focused and make sure that we get that capital efficiency increase that we referred to. And the best way for us to do that is drop that back to one rig versus the plan two or three. It’s a – I think it’s the right thing to do short term. Now, longer term, we know that you need to put additional capital in there. So we’re working with service providers. See if we can see some creative ways to do that. But that’s probably something we’d need to contemplate more into 2025. But we are seeing some, right, some really encouraging results. So real pleased with that asset at that point in time.
Matthew Portillo:
Thank you.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Kevin MacCurdy from Pickering Energy Partners. Kevin, your line is now open.
Kevin MacCurdy:
Hey, good morning guys. And we appreciate all the details on 2024. You’ve talked about oil production taking a little bit before bouncing back up to what it looks like to maybe close to current levels at year-end 2024. And my question is, given that lumpiness, do you see the 2024 CapEx range is a good proxy for maintenance CapEx? And would that production level and the maintenance scenario would be kind of at the current production levels?
Clay Gaspar:
Yes. I've always struggled with the maintenance capital question because there's always a way to kind of game the system. If you just want to focus on oil or gas or whatever, I would say this is a maintenance capital with a longer-term mindset in mind because we are still doing work to really prove up future value. We're doing things to always kind of enhance our portfolio. At the same time, maintenance capital of essentially roughly the same production 2024, excuse me, 2023 to 2024. And then as we look out to 2025, we're at least that level, maybe a little bit of growth in 2025 based on this investment. So yes, rough numbers, I would call that a maintenance capital, but a healthy maintenance capital.
Kevin MacCurdy:
Thanks. I think that clarity is helpful. And as a follow-up on the Eagle Ford, spending there has been a bit high this year. But in my take away from your CapEx budget is that it will be a little bit more efficient in 2024. Is that the right takeaway? And I respect you guys – that you guys are still nailing down the details, but anything you can share a high level on what's driving maybe better efficiency in the Eagle Ford?
Clay Gaspar:
Yes. We are certainly still nailing things down, and this is all preliminary based on the Board's approval. But I think directionally, you're right. We had looked at what is the constant two rigs for us to operate scenario look like? What does a one-rig for us to operate scenario look like? And then, of course, we're working with our JV partners BPX [ph] on activity level for that side of the base in the Black Hawk side. And so I think what we're working towards and we're finalizing looks like a high-graded activity consistent with what we've talked about in the other basins. And you'll see a really nice uptick in efficiency – capital efficiency from that. Now still bear in mind, I mean, we're doing some really inventive things there. We're looking forward on a lot of projects. We're not starving the asset of how do we create more value moving forward. That's very important to us that we're balancing the short-term wins with also longer-term value creation.
Kevin MacCurdy:
Thanks a lot.
Clay Gaspar:
Thank you, sir.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Paul Cheng from Scotiabank. Paul, your line is now open.
Paul Cheng:
Thank you. Good morning guys. Two questions, please. You guys have been indeed over there and that you have seen a lot of improvement. So if I'm looking out for the next one or two years, where is the area that you see the most opportunity for you to further improve? The second question is on the Bakken. You've been struck over there. I think from that standpoint, what have we learned from the RimRock acquisition in terms of future A&D, due diligence process and all that. And whether Bakken, given your substantially reducing activity what's the role for your longer-term portfolio? Do they have a role there? Thank you.
Rick Muncrief:
Hey Paul, this is Rick. I'm going to start, and then I'll put it over to Clay and Jeff, but I'm going to start with that second part. I think one of the most interesting things we've learned with the RimRock acquisition, some of which was a little bit of a surprise, some was not. And that was our spacing RimRock and Devon that had historically somewhat slightly different development schemes, if you will. And I think what we have learned is it really drove home the point that Devon's approach was probably the right approach as far as density per spacing unit. We were a little more relaxed. In other words, we had wider spacing and I think that's why we had better recoveries. But some of those – sometimes those points aren't really made until you have several years of production history, and I think that's what we have learned with this. The other thing I'd say is that we also have seen the impacts of something that's not controllable, like weather. And last year, not too much or make excuses, but the fact of the matter is we had one of the worst weather events in that area in the last century. And so timing was not our friend at that time, but you just have to, I think, think through that as you execute, implement your capital program. So I think those are the things we've learned as far as I can assure you the Williston has an absolute place in our portfolio going forward. It's an area we've worked in a long-time. We've had a great track record up there over the last decade, going back to the WPX days. And we see that continuing. We still see opportunities to even be better yet in the future. So we've learned quite a bit from this and we've applied that. I can tell you, I personally challenged the team to step up during that period; sometimes that happens when you're a leader, sometimes you push a little too hard. And I think that's a learning for us as well. So Clay, what else you want to add to those questions?
Clay Gaspar:
Yes. I'll go back to kind of what are we excited about when we look at the footprint that we have today, as we think about innovation in that space, Paul, last week, I did a couple of days of intensive conversation did an off-site with my team. And we're really focused on what distinguishes us two years from now, five years from now. And most importantly, what are the actions that we can take to ensure that exceptional performance. I think the two year conversations, there was a lot about recovery factor. How do we intent – how do we intentionally go after more of that oil that we already knows there. We sit in five amazing basins, have incredible land footprints already under our feet. And how do we think about extracting just a little bit more from the resources that we have. So a lot about stimulation design, a lot about integrated approach, thinking like geologists and reservoir engineers and completion engineers all at the same time in extracting that value really leaning in some of the great work that we found around refracs, some of the other things that we have. And as we move towards five year really things start coming in more focus around things like enhanced oil recovery, how are we progressing those learnings. And again, leveraging the amazing footprint that we already have today, how do we enhance that ballpark 10% recovery to 12%, 15%, 20%, essentially doubling the resource that we have. Specifically, the learnings around the acquisitions that was a little bit more than a year ago. We're still a pretty fresh team. I can tell you, the acquisitions were fantastic. Value-creating opportunities for us. They fit the portfolio. And what we really learned is that we need to do a better job in the process of the handoff and how do we pick those opportunities up. When these companies, the prior owners may have a little different mindset on how far ahead they are on infrastructure, on permitting, on how they manage the day-to-day operations things like ESG or a very high important factor to us. So moving through that kind of – that transition period, I think we have gotten materially better from the first to the second and when the third one comes, we'll make another material improvement. So real pleased with the team, the work that David's team, the greater team does in that evaluation. We're in every day to the room, we'll look hard at everything. We keep an exceptionally high bar and we'll continue to get very much better on that handoff and really improving the ultimate value from these opportunities.
Paul Cheng:
Thank you.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Scott Hanold from RBC. Scott, your line is now open. Please go ahead.
Scott Hanold:
Yes. Thanks. I think this one is for Jeff. And just to be a little bit more pointed on the kind of the buyback kind of theme. Your stock is down circa 30% year-to-date, certainly underperforming the peer group by quite a bit. Like why not do buybacks in the third quarter? I know you – obviously, the stock is bit down here in the last, say, week or so, but it had points during the third quarter to where it was at similar levels. Just kind of curious why not 3Q and more so going forward.
Jeff Ritenour:
Yes, Scott, you bet. The answer for the third quarter is real simple. As you'll recall, at the end of the second quarter, we disclosed our cash balance a dip below $500 million. As you might recall, when we rolled out our framework three years ago, one of the key criteria was that we maintain a cash balance in excess of that $500 million level. So our first priority was to take care of the maturity that we had in the third quarter. Second priority was to build back our cash balance above that $500 million level, which, as you saw in our reported results here in the third quarter, we've done that. So that married with our commitment to deliver on the variable dividend that we talked about in the previous quarter. We weren't in a position to buy any incremental shares in the quarter. But going forward. We've – I think we've hopefully clearly telegraphed today our intention on the share repo as well as the potential impact to the variable dividend going forward. And so look forward to getting to our next call in February and kind of talking about the results.
Scott Hanold:
Okay. Got it. And then my follow-up is, when you look at oil production next year around 315,000, do you see that as your new baseline? I know I think a prior kind of, I guess, market expectation would be closer to 320. And so is 315 the new baseline? And was – is that driven more about like where you think it's best sustainable at? Or is it more reflecting of your view of the uncertainty in the macro and just wanting to kind of taper it a little bit?
Rick Muncrief:
Yes. We think it's a new baseline. The fact is we – not too dissimilar from what the consensus was is that 320 was probably certainly doable. We've done it two or three quarters in a row. But the reality is, as we continue to see some constraints, some weather issues and real-world impacts, we think that 315 is absolutely the right baseline for us.
Scott Hanold:
Appreciate it. Thank you.
Scott Coody:
Well, I appreciate everyone's interest in Devon day. I see that we're at the top of our time. So if you have any further questions, please don't hesitate to reach out to the Investor Relations team at any time. Once again, thank you for your interest, and have a good day.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today’s call. Thank you for joining. You may now disconnect your lines. Thank you.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to Devon Energy’s Second Quarter Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] This call is being recorded. I’d now like to turn the call over to Mr. Scott Coody, Vice President of Investor Relations. Sir, you may begin.
Scott Coody:
Good morning and thank you to everyone for joining us on the call today. Last night, we issued an earnings release and presentation that cover our results for the second quarter and our outlook for the remainder of 2023. Throughout the call today, we will make references to the earnings presentation to support our prepared remarks and these slides can be found on our website. Also joining me on the call today are Rick Muncrief, our President and CEO; Clay Gaspar, our Chief Operating Officer; Jeff Ritenour, our Chief Financial Officer; and a few other members of our senior management team. Comments today will include plans, forecasts and estimates that are forward-looking statements under U.S. securities law. These comments are subject to assumptions, risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from our forward-looking statements. Please take note of the cautionary language and risk factors provided in our SEC filings and earnings materials. With that, I will turn the call over to Rick.
Rick Muncrief:
Thank you, Scott. Pleasure to be here this morning. We appreciate everyone taking the time to join us. Devon’s second quarter performance can be defined as another one of solid execution on all fronts as our business continued to strengthen and build operational momentum throughout the quarter. The attractive per share growth we have consistently delivered quarter after quarter demonstrates the efficiency of our disciplined business model, the quality of our Delaware-focused asset portfolio, and the team’s execution capabilities and the benefits of our cash return framework. The chart on Slide 4 provides a very compelling visual of this success, showcasing our impressive track record of value creation. Since we unveiled the industry first framework in late 2020, we have deployed $12 billion towards dividends share buybacks, debt reduction and accretive bolt-on acquisitions. The cumulative value of these actions equates to nearly 2x the value of Devon’s pro forma market capitalization from just a few years ago. As you can see from our diversified actions to-date, we have carefully designed our cash return framework to be nimble with the flexibility to allocate free cash flow across multiple avenues to optimize financial results through the cycle. Importantly, this disciplined execution has been rewarded by the market with our equity performance, achieving the highest return of any stock in the entire S&P 500 over this period. Now, let’s go through some of our second quarter highlights and operating trends in greater detail. Beginning with production, the team did a great job, growing oil volumes by 8% on a year-over-year basis this past quarter. This result surpassed midpoint guidance expectations and for us set a new all-time high oil production record for the company by averaging 323,000 barrels per day in the quarter. Additionally, this volume growth was supported by an infrastructure that includes several strategic midstream assets that we have selectively invested in through the years and have taken equity stakes in an effort to enhance the result from our core E&P operations. A key driver of this record-setting result was higher completion activity in the Delaware Basin. By leveraging the benefits of a temporary fourth frac crew and consistently improving cycle times, we were able to bring online 76 new Delaware wells in the quarter, which was a few more than we originally planned due to efficiency gains. Importantly, the well productivity from this batch of wells in Delaware was excellent and included a Wolfcamp B appraisal success that strengthens the depth and quality of our resource in the area. We also had a successful redevelopment test in the Eagle Ford and advanced a handful of other interesting appraisal projects across our diversified asset base that it reinforces our confidence in the resource upside that currently exist across our portfolio. Looking ahead, with higher levels of completion activity in the second quarter, we expect our production profile to continue to strengthen the upcoming third quarter. A good visual of this operational momentum can be seen on Slide 7, with oil volumes expected to grow to a range of 322,000 to 330,000 barrels per day in the upcoming quarter. As I touched on earlier, the capital spending to drive this growth trajectory was a touch ahead of expectations due to very strong execution from our drilling and completion teams that brought forward activity into the quarter. Clay will spend time and cover this topic later, but I am extremely proud to share that we’ve set several operational records at both the basin and company level, contributing to the record-setting drilled and completed feet per day metrics we have achieved year-to-date. In addition to our strong operating efficiencies, our business is also beginning to benefit from service cost deflation as contracts are refreshed. This is driven by reduced activity from natural gas-focused companies and private producers over the past few months resulted – resulting in improved availability of services and cost deflation in virtually every category. Although this is a very dynamic environment, we’ve observed the most downward pressure to date in the areas of tubulars, rig rates, fuel and other miscellaneous drilling services that will begin to positively impact our cost structure as we enter the end of this year. We also anticipate price movement with pressure pumping, which is our largest cost category in a very near future. While it’s still somewhat premature to say what and set what our firm outlook for 2024 is, our expectations for deflationary trends should continue. We have the potential for meaningful savings from peak well costs as pricing improvements gradually flow through our cost structure over the next year or so. With a free cash flow model that our business generated, we had another great quarter of cash returns. We returned $462 million to shareholders through our fixed plus variable dividend which we have paid out now for 12 consecutive quarters. We also have an active buyback program that resulted in the repurchase of nearly 4 million shares over the past 3 months. We believe this balance between dividends and buyback offers investors the powerful combination of an attractive yield and steady per share growth through the cycle. Now moving to Slide 11. With the progress that our business has made year-to-date, we are well on our way to meeting the capital objectives associated with our 2023 plan. The momentum we have established places us on track to deliver a production per share growth rate of approximately 9% for the year. Importantly, the activity required to fund this growth is self-funded at a $40 WTI price or approximately half of where we are today and is delivering returns on capital employed greater than 20% at today’s commodity prices. While once again, it is too early to provide firm guidance for next year. The trajectory of our business sets us up for a strong outlook in 2024 as well. Given current market fundamentals, we plan to invest at levels that will sustain our productive capacity and any improvements that we see from lower service costs will accrue to our shareholders in the form of higher free cash flow generation. This disciplined pursuit of value over volume positions us to continue to deliver another year of differentiated cash returns and highly competitive returns on invested capital versus the broader market. And now with that, I’ll now turn the call over to Clay to cover our operational highlights. Clay?
Clay Gaspar:
Thank you, Rick, and good morning, everyone. Our second quarter operating results demonstrated that our business is performing at a high level and building momentum as we head into the second half of the year. As Rick touched on, this positive trajectory is underpinned by improving capital efficiency from faster cycle times, improving service costs and positive appraisal results that will contribute to our production profile and financial results over the balance of this year and more significantly into 2024. We Today, I plan to provide a brief overview of the second quarter results across our assets as well as highlight some upcoming catalysts, the most significant contributor to Devon’s second quarter operating success, so once again, our franchise asset in the Delaware Basin. As you can see on Slide 8, more than 60% of our capital activity was deployed to this prolific basin, allowing us to run a consistent program of 16 rigs. With the fourth completion crew of work in the first half of the year, we were able to place 76 wells online in the second quarter, up more than 80% compared to the first quarter. This elevated completion activity grew our Delaware production to 420,000 BOE per day and is expected to underpin volume growth in the third quarter as well. While we had great results across our acreage position, a key project I would like to highlight from the quarter was our Mule development in Eddy County, New Mexico. We’ve talked in the past about the important appraisal work that we do each year with 10% to 20% of our capital budget. The Mule pad is an example to provide you some visibility into the fruits of this labor. This 11-well project successfully codeveloped multiple landing zones within the Wolfcamp with particularly exciting results from the appraisal of deeper Wolfcamp B benches. The initial results from these 6 wells targeting the Wolfcamp B landing zones average greater than 3,100 BOE per day with 44% oil cut. Per well recoveries are on trend to exceed 2 million barrels of oil equivalent. Importantly, these highly commercial appraisal results de-risk and enhance the economic expectations on approximately 100 Wolfcamp B locations in the Cotton Draw area. Furthermore, these deeper Wolfcamp locations are expected to be highly competitive within our capital allocation framework going forward. The Delaware team also continued to make progress advancing drilling and completions efficiencies across our operations in the basin. In the Wolfcamp, we improved drilling productivity by about 10% on a per foot basis over the past year, while some of our best spud release times for 2-mile laterals pushing below 15 days. Completion efficiencies have also steadily improved, with our cycle times decreasing by 9% year-to-date and compared to 2022. Averaging a record completion pace of more than 2,200 feet per day in the quarter, this operational progress has been accomplished in conjunction with an even higher safety and environmental focus and expectation. The great work our team has done to drive improvements across the entire planning and execution of our resources coupled with a broader service cost deflation trends are positioning our business to be even more efficient as we head into 2024. Moving to the Eagle Ford, our 3-rig program resulted in 29 gross wells placed online during the quarter. This activity which was concentrated in the recently acquired acreage in Torrance County drove a 9% increase in productivity versus the previous quarter. This margin – this high margin growth was driven by strong well productivity achieved from a balanced mix of development and appraisal activity designed to refine the next stage of development for this prolific resource play. Our top development project in the quarter was headlined by LP Butler pad. This 4-well pad developed a highly charged theme of pay in the volatile oil window of the play that exceeded pre-drill expectations, reaching an impressive average 30-day rate of 3,600 BOE per day, with a 56% oil cuts. On the appraisal front, a key success in the quarter was the [indiscernible] unit. This development project in Torrance County tested infill spacing, ranging from 140 to 150 – excuse me 180 foot and roughly 30 wells per section. The initial 30-Day rates from this package of wells averaged 2,000 BOE per day, resulting in highly commercial returns, that adds the depth and quality of our inventory in the play. Also, adding to the commerciality of this tighter spacing was our drilling performance where we broke a company record averaging over 2000 feet per day, which included the fastest bud rig release time in company history of only 5.7 days. As we look to allocate capital for 2024 and beyond, the positive operating results we have achieved year-to-date served as valuable data points to optimize future development activity in the Eagle Ford and other and further deepens our convictions of the resource upside that a crop that exists across this entire field. Moving to the Williston, volumes began to rebound in the second quarter growing 4% quarter-over-quarter to 56,000 BOE per day. This growth was driven by improved weather, higher up times on existing producers, and successful adjustments to completion and production techniques for some of the new well activity. These completion and production modifications consisted of change to larger profit size designed to mitigate mobility of sand and a shift in artificial lift techniques to improve well uptime. With the favorable flow-back results on two pads that have deployed these techniques. We have high confidence that the wells productivity will improve as we see progress throughout the year. Looking at inventory, we now have more than 150 wells remaining and identified significant refract opportunities across hundreds of producing wells in the field, providing us the optionality to deploy steady reinvestment in this play for multiple years to come. Turning to the Powder River Basin, the key objective of our 2023 program is to continue to appraise and methodically refine our understanding of the Niobrara, so that we can optimize this resource for future development. With this focus, the team has made substantial progress over the last year, establishing repeatable commercial results, with three-mile laterals across a significant portion of our acreage and Converse County. Furthermore, since we are not observing any degradation in the results from 3-well spacing, we plan to test 4-well per section later this year. And lastly, we are also encouraged by the early flow rates from appraisal activity recently brought online in the northern portion of our leasehold position that could extend the Niobrara potential into Campbell County. I will provide more updates on these tests in the coming quarters. But it has been evident that our 300,000 acre net acreage position in the Powder River Basin is providing Devon important resource catalysts for the future. Lastly, in the Anadarko Basin, production volumes grew 10% from the previous quarter, driven by the ramp up and completion activity funded by a drilling carrier from our Dow joint venture, the operational execution from this program was superb, with well costs consistently coming in below pre drill expectations and the initial flow rates from several wells exceeding 3,000 BOE per day. Today, we have only utilized approximately half of the 133 well carry agreement we have in place with Dow, we anticipate the remaining carry will provide us sufficient runway to support our current pace of activity for the next 18 to 24 months. And we're open to expanding the scope of partnership as we've successfully demonstrated in the past. For the remainder of 2023, we plan to bring on 10 new wells weighted towards year end. In summary, I’m proud of the capital efficiency results that each of our asset teams are delivering during the quarter and the strong momentum that we have built heading into the second half of ‘23. And with that, I'll turn the call over to Jeff for the financial review. Jeff?
Jeff Ritenour:
Thanks, Clay. I'll spend my time today covering the key drivers of our second quarter financial results and provide some insights into our outlook for the rest of the year. Beginning with production. A key driver of second quarter volumes exceeding midpoint guidance was efficiency gains that compress cycle times, leading us to capture a few more days online than planned. Looking ahead. The benefits of higher completion activity from the Delaware in the first half of the year is expected to drive volumes – oil volumes higher in the upcoming third quarter and leaves us on track to meet our volume targets for the full year as well. On the capital front, we've invested 55% of our budget year-to-date. This waiting to the first half of the year is due to higher completion activity driven by a fourth temporary frack crew in the Delaware Basin. With this temporary crew recently released, we expect a lower capital spinning profile as we head into the second half of the year and remain confident in our capital spending guidance range for the full year. Regional oil pricing once again remained strong with realizations near WTI benchmark levels in the second quarter. We're also seeing strength in the oil price curve for the second half of 2023. This positive trend is providing a meaningful impact to our returns and cash flow generation capabilities with every $1 uplift in WTI, resulting in about 100 million of additional annual cash flow for the company. Despite the strength we saw in oil pricing in the second quarter, we did experience weakness in both natural gas and NGL realizations. We do expect improved markets for gas and NGLs in the second half of the year, which should translate into better price realizations for us across the portfolio. Moving to operating expenses, our field level costs were right in line with expectations for the quarter. However, we do expect a minor uptick in per unit cost in the second half of 2023 driven by our recently executed water handling joint venture in the Delaware Basin. Our new water JV provides us significant operational flexibility to enhance scale and multiple disposal options. In addition, the JV material lowers our future midstream capital requirements in the area. Looking forward, our equity stake in the JV will provide us distributions over time, offsetting the incremental operating cost at the asset level. We could also choose to bring forward value by monetizing this asset at some point in the future. Cutting to the bottom line, we generated $1.4 billion of operating cash flow during the quarter. Combined with the low reinvestment rates to fund our disciplined capital program, we were able to generate free cash flow for the 12th straight quarter. Furthermore, we've delivered these results across a variety of market conditions showcasing the durability of our business strategy. With this free cash flow, our top priority was the return of capital to our shareholders. A key use of our excess cash in the quarter was the funding of our fixed plus variable dividend with the board declaring a payout of $0.49 per share. This distribution will be paid at the end of September. In addition to dividends, we also see great value in our equity and continue to be active buyers of our stock. During the quarter, we repurchased an additional $200 million of stock, bringing our year-to-date total to approximately $750 million. With the authorization we have in place, we remain on pace to repurchase approximately 9% of our outstanding shares by the end of next year. These opportunistic buybacks are a critically important tool for us to compound per share growth for investors over time. And to round out my prepared remarks this morning, I’d like to give a brief update on our investment-grade financial position. We exited the quarter with $3.5 billion of liquidity and a low net debt-to-EBITDA ratio of 0.7x. This leverage resides well below our mid-cycle leverage target of 1x or less. Subsequent to quarter end, we took the next step in improving our financial position by retiring $242 million of debt at maturity. With a strong cash flow our business is generating, we will have additional opportunities to pare down our debt and maturities coming due in 2024 and 2025 as well. With that, I’ll now turn the call back to Rick for some closing comments.
Rick Muncrief:
Thank you, Jeff. Good job. I would like to close out today by reiterating four key messages from our prepared remarks. Number one, our disciplined execution in the second quarter demonstrates our business is performing at a high level and building momentum as we head into the second half of the year. Number two, this positive trajectory is underpinned by better capital efficiency from higher and faster cycle times, strong well productivity and improving service costs that will contribute to our financial results over the remainder of this year and into 2024. Number three, our resource base continued to strengthen this quarter. This was evidenced by our highly commercial appraisal results in the deeper Wolfcamp and a positive redevelopment test in the Eagle Ford that adds to our conviction of resource upside across our portfolio. And number four, with this advantaged resource base, we are deeply committed to a disciplined pursuit of per share value creation over production volume growth. Foundational to this commitment is our carefully designed cash turn framework that has the flexibility to allocate free cash flow across multiple avenues to optimize shareholder value through the cycle. And now with that, I’ll turn the call back over to Scott as we get into Q&A. Scott?
Scott Coody:
Thanks, Rick. We will now open the call to Q&A. Please limit yourself to one question and a follow-up. This allows us to get to more of your questions on the call today. With that, operator, we will take our first question.
Operator:
Thank you. Our first question comes from Neil Mehta from Goldman Sachs. Neil, your line is now open.
Neil Mehta:
Yes. Thanks so much. The first question is just on the production profile for the back half of the year. As you indicated, you guys are focused on value over volume. But some of the pushback we’ve done this morning has been centered around volumes being a little bit below consensus for the back half of the year. So maybe your thoughts on thoughts on whether there is some conservatism in the way that you model this out and where areas potentially that could surprise the upside? Thanks.
Clay Gaspar:
Hi, Neil, thanks for the question. This is Clay. I just want to reiterate, we feel good about our full year guide certainly, with the accelerated activity, things moving a little quicker on the D&C front, that pulled a little bit of our production forward. That’s great on a per well basis, but you get a little bit of lumpiness in the productivity. So we get – we pulled some of that third quarter volume forward. So we maintain our full year guide, but we’ve always seen kind of a role as we pull back from that four frac fleet in the Delaware to the third. So nothing new, nothing unplanned, but consistent with what we’ve been showing and once again, feel real good about the full year guide.
Neil Mehta:
Alright. That’s great. And then the follow-up is just, can you talk a little bit about this water handling contracts in the Delaware. There is a modest bump up in the LOE in the guide a little bit of background on what it is, and how we should think about it?
Jeff Ritenour:
Yes, Neil, this is Jeff. Happy to do that. Yes, we’re excited about the flexibility and the scale that, that’s going to bring to our water handling in the basin we’re going to have multiple disposal options as opposed to what we had before. It does bring a little higher operating cost at the asset level. But as I mentioned in my prepared remarks, with the equity stake that we’ve got in the joint venture, we will be receiving distributions on a go-forward basis, which is going to more than offset that additional LOE costs that we’re going to see. So – and as I also mentioned in the prepared remarks, we also think it provides us a great opportunity with that equity position to monetize the asset at some point in the future. So really excited about the flexibility it gives to us operationally. As Clay will attest, there is certainly a fair amount of water we got to move out in the Delaware Basin. So this additional flexibility and scale, we think, is going to be a real positive for us. I’ll also add, it certainly helps us on the capital efficiency front because it helps us to eliminate a pretty material amount of capital that we otherwise would have had to spend on water infrastructure as you look out over the next couple of years.
Neil Mehta:
Alright, guys. Thanks so much.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from Nitin Kumar from Mizuho. Nitin, your line is now open.
Nitin Kumar:
Hi, good morning. Rick, and team, glad to speak to you. Rick, you’ve kind of mentioned a little bit of an acceleration of activity into the first half. It’s a little bit different than what you had said when you gave the guidance for the year, it does imply a little bit slower cadence of completions in the second half of 2023. And I’m just wondering, could we use that as a baseline for 2024 in terms of activity levels?
Rick Muncrief:
Nitin, I’ll tell you what we like to do is we think most important thing for us is we like the consistency. As you think about quarter-over-quarter, we’ve been pretty consistent for a while on our production. And we like to look at things on an annual basis. Clay mentioned the fact that you do have some lumpiness from time to time just through acceleration. You could have working interest changes, you could have some assessment work, you do all sorts of things like that. But I think for us, the most important thing, Nitin, would be that let’s just look year-over-year, and I know that we – people like to look at things on a quarterly basis. But from my perspective, I want to watch that year-over-year profile, and let’s lean in on share repurchases and let’s make sure that we get that growth on a per share basis. And Clay, is there anything else you want to add to that?
Clay Gaspar:
Yes, Rick, in your question was, should we expect that run rate. Just remember that fourth frac crew in the front half of the year we are consuming DUCs essentially in that period. Just if you look at Delaware Basin, and then when we’re running three frac crews as we will in the second half of the year, we’re essentially generating DUCs. And in a fully optimized world, we would pick up and drop that fourth spot crew to optimize. I would say in today’s world, what we’re doing is really trying to bring that crew in, get them fully up to speed, let them run through the opportunities that we have. And then put them on pause in this case, for about 6 months, we will pick them back up again in January. You’ll see capital tick up, but you’ll certainly see the production tick up as well related to that crew. So that does exacerbate the lumpiness that we talk about. I’d love to have a straight line. But again, when you pan out and look at an annual basis like Rick talked about, you really see the consistency of our program.
Nitin Kumar:
Great. Thanks for the color, Rick and Clay. I guess for my follow-up, we’ve seen some private assets change hands here in the last 3 months or so. The shape of the Delaware Basin is – has changed a little bit. You’ve previously talked about scale and the importance of that to the new business model that Devon initiated 3 years ago. So just any thoughts on the M&A market going forward? Do you see room for consolidation here? And what is the role that you think you might pay?
Rick Muncrief:
Nitin, that’s a great question. I think we’ve talked about this fairly consistently. As far as consolidation, I think, a, it’s going to continue to happen. I think as you start looking across many companies’ portfolios, and we’re not one of those companies, but there is a lot of companies out there, many of the smaller companies they are going to start looking for options because they are getting light on inventory. Some of the private consolidations that we’ve seen recently that you’re referring to – many of those were companies that exhibited performance. It was really – quite honestly, it was pretty impressive in how fast they grew their production, how fast they were going through that inventory, but they also see the challenge of where they are going to go in the future. And for companies like us, we’re going to be very, very disciplined, and we just haven’t had an appetite to really take on that steep decline rate that you would be inheriting. You have to be very, very thoughtful and it gets to be tricky. Now I will say there were some pretty creative solutions with some of those companies that had those and bringing some two and three companies altogether to make some pretty interesting transaction. But I think it just represents the creativity in our sector. I think you’re going to continue to see consolidation. I think it makes a ton of sense, and it’s going to happen for numerous reasons. And over time, you’ll continue to see companies consolidate, and there’ll be companies such as Devon, I believe, that will be the beneficiaries of those because we’re going to be very disciplined, and I think we will try to be opportunistic and make sure that we make moves that just build a stronger and stronger, more durable company. And so – but you’re spot on. I think consolidation in our industry is going to continue.
Nitin Kumar:
Great. Thanks for the answer, Rick.
Rick Muncrief:
Thanks, Nitin.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from Scott Gruber from Citigroup. Scott, your line is now open.
Scott Gruber:
Yes. Good morning. Curious about the returns you’re seeing on the refrac wells in the Eagle Ford. How do those compare to a new well in the basin, and how does that influence, how you prosecute that program going forward?
Clay Gaspar:
Yes. Thanks for the question, Scott. This is Clay. We’re really excited about the work that we’ve seen to date. We have about 30 tests we’re still learning on what’s the right wells to go in and refrac what’s the right techniques to go in and prosecute those. And so I would say for only being 30 wells and 30 refracs in we’re very encouraged about the results. We’re encouraged about the inventory that we had. I should note, in the Validus acquisition we did, we had zero refracs underwritten in the acquisition price. And now we’re seeing more material upside, both in redevelopment and in refracs. I would say on a heads-up basis, when you think about returns, the better ones certainly compete heads up with the wells that we’re drilling today. But you really have to really think about how do you prosecute those, the right approach, and you end up getting a variety of them. So I would say it’s too early to tell on an exact quantity and the overall return, but certainly, the top half of what we’ve derisked today, we feel really good about and will certainly become more of a regular part of our investment opportunities on an annual basis.
Scott Gruber:
Appreciate the color. And just an unrelated follow-up, but I did notice that the gas feed on the quarter at least versus our numbers, was largely driven by the Anadarko and by the Williston. Was anything going on in those basins that led to a gas production step up. Are you seeing the gas oil ratio of the base there step higher? Just some color on the gas production in Anadarko and Williston be great.
Clay Gaspar:
Yes. Thanks for that. The Anadarko Basin certainly is our gassier option. We have a lot of running room right now. We’re more focused on the liquids-rich portion of it. But even relative to the rest of our portfolio, that’s certainly a gassier part of the mix. When we look to the wells that we’re developing in Williston, a little bit higher gas cut there as well. Very importantly, we’ve done a good job of getting that gas down the line, through the meter and sold rather than flaring. Happy to report our flaring numbers continue to be heading in the right direction around the company, especially in Williston. And that’s certainly not without challenges. I think that’s the bigger contributors to the increase in gas, getting that through the meter, getting that sold is always a very high objective, but we’re also really focused on the oil side of the equation, which is where our revenues really come from.
Scott Gruber:
Appreciate the color. Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from Arun Jayaram from JPMorgan. Arun, your line is now open.
Arun Jayaram:
Yes. Good morning.
Rick Muncrief:
Good morning, Arun.
Arun Jayaram:
Good morning, Rick. I know you guys aren’t yet ready to provide more specific called soft commentary on 2024, but I did want to get maybe some of your early read on 2024 CapEx. If we look at your second half ‘23 CapEx guidance, it’s around $1.7 billion or $850 million a quarter. If we annualize that, that would be about $3.4 billion. It sounds like you would need a, call it, a partial fourth frac crew to execute your 2024 plan. So I just wanted to say if those are kind of the elements should we be thinking about CapEx in the mid, call it, $3.5 billion kind of range. But again, just wanted to get some preliminary thoughts.
Clay Gaspar:
Yes. I appreciate that, Arun. I think your logic on how to get there as far as rig count, frac fleet count, I completely agree with. I’m going to hold back on giving you a number for next year. There is a lot of things going on around what’s happening in commodity price, therefore, rig count, therefore, inflation, deflation, those things have pretty material impacts, and we’re just going to hold back. But I think directionally, think of the same similar activity as a really good starting point.
Arun Jayaram:
Great. And my follow-up maybe for Jeff. Jeff, I wanted to kind of zero in on the Williston Basin. This is called the third quarter in a row that we’ve seen relatively low realizations for natural gas and NGLs. So I was just wondering if you could provide what’s going on there? And is this going to be a persistent impact to you going forward?
Jeff Ritenour:
Yes, Arun, this is Jeff. Yes, I appreciate the question. As Clay mentioned earlier, there, particularly in the Williston, where you’ve got some gas is obviously not the lion’s share of the production mix. But can be a real challenge, obviously, to move the gas up there given the infrastructure and the constraints that we have. I would tell you, when you look at those realizations in particular in the – excuse me, the Williston, you’re going to see some wild volatility just given the deducts that we have from a realization standpoint. And so it’s not a – it’s not going to be as clean and consistent as you would usually see in some of our other basins. I’d also point out, as you’re well aware, it’s pretty immaterial in the grand scheme of things, given the margins that we see from the oil barrels there.
Arun Jayaram:
Fair enough, thanks a lot, Jeff.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from Neal Dingmann from Truist. Neal, your line is now open.
Neal Dingmann:
Thanks for the time. My first question, guys, is on your Delaware Basin specifically. Maybe, Clay, could you speak to what benefits that recent Wolfcamp B appraisal success might have on – I mean maybe it’s too early to say what it might have on total production. But maybe what you think the upside will that could drive in the, I don’t know, later this year or next year? And then just wondering how you view also the benefits. You’ve touched on this earlier in your comments. How you view the benefits of bringing some of those wells forward this year, not the appraisal of course, but the others.
Clay Gaspar:
Yes, Neal, first question around the B. I mean, this is so important and fundamental to what we do around the assessment work. We talked about on several calls, this 10% to 20% of the dollars that aren’t directed towards the most near-term capital efficient, but it’s so important that we dig deeper out into the portfolio to de-risk these opportunities. And when we see after several reps of really understanding what that opportunity is, and they certainly jump up to the front of the line compete even with some of the best stuff we’re investing in today, it’s pretty exciting. And so it’s something we just want to share specifically in Cotton Draw, specifically in these B zones. These are really accretive and very valuable. Now full disclosure, they are already baked into the inventory numbers that we guide to, but they are baked in on a risk standpoint. So as we de-risk them, net-net to us, there is real value creation and being able to prosecute on those. The second question was around moving the opportunities forward. So that’s just – we have 16 rigs running. They are all running just a little bit ahead of pace. The completion crews, same deal there, four frac crews for the front half of the year in the Delaware Basin, they are just running just a little bit ahead of pace. And so that fourth crew that we toggle on and off originally was slated to run through October. And then we pull it back to September than August. We finally were able to release that in July and accomplish everything that we needed to accomplish. So you can imagine the well cost savings and the value creation on a per well basis. Now it kind of monkeys with our quarterly numbers a little bit, as you can see. But overall, we’re always trying to pull that value forward. We’re thinking about per well full cycle cost, how do we continue to drive that? And then how does it manifest to the bottom line of the company.
Neal Dingmann:
That makes sense. And maybe the last one for Jeff, just on capital allocation, just how aggressively Jeff, do you all think about going forward, do you all plan to target net debt while combining this with your strong shareholder return program?
Jeff Ritenour:
Yes. I appreciate the question. I think going forward, you are going to see our – as our framework has been pretty consistent from day one, as Rick mentioned in his opening remarks, you shouldn’t expect a material change in that approach. We are going to be pretty balanced. As you saw this year-to-date, between the variable dividend and the stock buyback, it’s been about 50-50, which to me is a great example of how well our framework is working last year when you had much higher prices and significant free cash flow generation. We leaned in on the variable dividends. And this year, when you have seen that pull back, you have seen much more balance from us with the stock buybacks as well. Going forward, where we are from a cash balance and a framework standpoint, as we generate excess free cash flow here in the back half of the year given the lower capital spend we expect, and the higher oil prices that we are projecting in the back half of this year, we should generate significant free cash flow, we are going to look to build our cash balance back. And then with the remainder of the cash, we are going to focus on, obviously, the variable and the stock buybacks on an opportunistic basis.
Neal Dingmann:
Very good. Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. We have our next question comes from Doug Leggate from Bank of America. Doug, your line is now open.
Doug Leggate:
I have two if you don’t mind. One is on mix, and one is on portfolio capital intensity. And I guess it’s that we have seen this trend obviously across a number of your peers. But if you look at the oil mix in your production. It’s obviously been up and down a little bit over the last couple of years, but it seems to have dropped now below 50%. I am just wondering when you think about how you are allocating capital between your different operating areas, particularly, I guess Anadarko versus Permian. How do you anticipate as you optimize your spend that, that oil mix is going to trend? I have got a follow-up, please.
Jeff Ritenour:
Yes. Doug, this is Jeff. I would say we view that the mix of the oil to be pretty consistent on a year-over-year basis. We are really focused on rate of return and the returns that we generate in our play. We are agnostic, frankly to oil or gas. But as we all know, certainly, oil is the higher-margin product today, and our focus has been, particularly in the Delaware. So, with the Dow JV that we have in the Anadarko Basin, that obviously reduces those returns and helps from a capital efficiency standpoint and makes that activity pretty competitive with our broader portfolio. But we – I think we would all tell you, and it’s not going to be a surprise to anybody on the call that the Delaware without doubt is our most capital-efficient asset today, it’s oil-weighted. That’s where the bulk of our margins come from. And as we move forward into 2024 and beyond, we would expect it to capture the lion’s share of our capital investment.
Doug Leggate:
Okay. I guess we will take another look at that. But my follow-up, Jeff is, look, I realize that inflation and cost and everything else is a well-trodden path. Everyone understands what’s going on there, what has gone on there. But I want to share an observation with you just to get your opinion on this and see what you think. When I look at your peers, obviously, one of your large peers reported this morning that the capital intensity simplistically on a per BOE basis is up about 30%. U.S. is up about 80%. For example, if I take your spend in the first half of last year, it was about $10 a BOE. First half of this year, it’s about $17 a BOE and production is obviously up small. So, I am just wondering if you can address that and tell us what you think is going on? Is there capital in there that is transitory, for example, in the infrastructure you talked about or what else should we be looking at to try and understand what’s changed there?
Jeff Ritenour:
Yes. Doug, I would say, as you know, it’s a mix of things. Without a doubt, one of the things that we have talked about a lot is the inflation that hit us and that certainly started in the back half of last year and worked its way into this year. That’s a big driver of that. The timing of our contracts and the roll-off of our contract structure as it relates to all of the different cost categories, I think has also disproportionately hit us relative to our peers. Said another way, I thought our teams did a great job of protecting us from the inflation in the very early part of the cycle. So, think about the fall of last year and the early part of this year. And now as we worked our way through 2023, a lot of those contracts have rolled off into a higher price environment from an inflation standpoint. And so you have seen some of the capital efficiency for our asset base relative to some others certainly change. Obviously, mix is a big driver of that. The shifts that we made with the acquisitions in Validus and RimRock, you are moving away from a more capital-efficient asset in the Delaware from a mix standpoint to really great assets, really great returns in the Bakken and the Eagle Ford. But as I mentioned in my response to the previous question, they are certainly not as capital efficient as what we see in the Delaware. So, you put all that together, and I think that’s what you are seeing really driving that capital efficiency rate of change relative to some of our peers. I will say, though, when you step back and you look at that capital efficiency on an absolute basis, company versus company, we feel really good about where we sit, and we look really, really competitive against the top-tier companies in the space. That rate of change as you pointed out has just been pretty material and have been a challenge on a relative basis as you all screen for capital efficiency. But when we look at the capital efficiency on an absolute basis, we still feel really good about where we sit. And we expect that to improve as we work our way into the future for all the reasons you mentioned earlier, which is we do expect to see some deflation as we work our way through the back half of this year and into next year. And as Clay mentioned earlier, the mix of our asset base and the things we are focused on, we think that only is going to add to our productivity moving forward.
Doug Leggate:
Okay. Thanks for the answer, Jeff. Appreciate it.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from Matthew Portillo from TPH. Matthew, your line is now open.
Matthew Portillo:
Good morning all. Clay, maybe a question for you to start off on the Bakken. I know that’s an asset that has faced some technical challenges to start the year. Could you impact some of the headwinds a bit more that you faced in the first half and maybe a little bit more around the completion design change that you guys have made that may start to show some improvement in the well results in the back half and heading into 2024?
Clay Gaspar:
Happy to do it, Matt. Thanks for the question. As I think about the Williston, it is certainly maybe the most mature of all the oil resource plays. We are learning things for the first time what these late innings really look like. Certainly, with the RimRock acquisition, bringing those wells in, we faced some challenges really from a surface standpoint, but also from a relatively surface standpoint, and I will talk about both. From a subsurface standpoint, one of the challenges we faced, specifically with some of the wells we acquired is the nature of the depletion. These crosscut wells are really unique. And so we have seen wells we have drilled through essentially have a depletion and then essentially verge pressure and then back to depletion throughout the lateral. Producing those – completing those and producing those have been a relatively unique challenge. We haven’t seen anywhere else. We have gotten some solution, I have talked about earlier. I think we are doing really well on getting those wells producing consistently, getting them unloaded and allowing the proppant to stay in place, which is fundamentally important to be able to producing the wells. More on the surface side, once you get that proppant in place, then you don’t have the challenges of artificial lift. You don’t have the sand flowing back to surface and adding additional complications. What we really faced in the first quarter was some of these operational challenges and then still in a very tight workover rig environment, reaching for that workover rig, having to stand in line or the opportunity cost of pulling it off of something else we were trying to do has been pretty uniquely challenging. I think we have gotten a good recipe for the wells going forward. A lot of our inventory that we are able to go back to now will not have some of these same challenges. It’s more run of the mill, what we have been dealing with in Williston for the last several years and really delivering some really good well results. So yes, the first quarter was challenging from an operational standpoint, especially in the first quarter, compounded by weather. I feel good about the direction we are headed, the response we have had from the team, and the outlook going forward.
Matthew Portillo:
Perfect. And then just as a follow-up, in your prepared remarks, you mentioned seeing quite a bit of success in the Anadarko Basin and the potential for a further expansion of the partnership. Just curious, is that something that you may pursue with Dow, or are you looking at bringing in potentially other partners to continue to progress the asset from a development standpoint?
Clay Gaspar:
We love – we cherish our partnerships, and we love it when it’s a mutual win-win. Dow has been very pleased with this partnership. We have as well. It’s allowed the Anadarko Basin to compete in our pretty rigorous portfolio. And so expanding that, certainly, Dow has a very good knowledge of the basin, it would be the easiest to pursue with them. Certainly, look, we are objective. We have other partnerships around the company, but it’s something we are regularly talking about with Dow, how would this work for them, how would this work for us. We haven’t made any decisions on that, but just thought I would mention, we have an additional runway beyond the current scope that we may end up pursuing at some point.
Matthew Portillo:
Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you, Matthew. We have our next question comes from Scott Hanold from RBC. Scott, your line is now open.
Scott Hanold:
Yes. Thanks. I am just wondering if you have had some thoughts on just the overall maturation and depth of your inventory. It appears with you all that there is a little bit more exploration and refrac and other kind of opportunity. Does that point to the maturity of some of the assets? And is there a little reason more to do more kind of exploration and development of that sort, or just give us a sense of like when you think about like primary drilling of economics you have today, like how much of a runway do you have?
Rick Muncrief:
Hey Scott, it’s Rick. We feel really good about our runway, but we also are compelled to continue to explore, to continue to assess what we already own. You have heard several comments, commentary around consolidation opportunities. I think it’s incumbent upon this management team to first, let’s understand what the opportunities we already have in hand. You have heard Clay talk about how we had – in the Wolfcamp B, we feel really, really good about some resource potential there. We had it in a risk basis, and you go out and you execute on those and you find out that they really are good. And the implication is that not only the offsets of where we are at, but when you think about a 400,000-acre position that we possess in the Delaware, and you can continue to do these and these assessment activities. And quite honestly, you either meet or exceed what your expectations are. That’s a good thing. That’s better than good. That’s a great thing, because that adds to your risk or your un-risk – excuse me, your risk inventory that you feel really good. When I say that, that’s inventory you are pulling off the shale and executing on and with phenomenal returns. And so whether it’s in the Delaware, whether it’s these opportunities that we have in the Eagle Ford, which we are really bullish on, which is the opportunities we see in the Bakken, which we continue to see some nice opportunities there. We feel really good about it. But I think it’s incumbent upon this team to continue to assess what our current acreage position is as we compare and contrast executing on that, holding what we have versus going out and buying more, consolidating more. So, just – it’s real fundamental to our business.
Scott Hanold:
Yes. I mean – and that’s good to hear. And I think the question is a lot on sort of the capital efficiency trend as you move from a very high core prolific Delaware Basin to some of these other zones or even to some of these other players like the Anadarko and Eagle Ford and Williston or PRB, right? So, it’s more about that capital efficiency trend relative to kind of the best stuff you have already drilled?
Rick Muncrief:
Right. I think that’s what you are going to see. I think you are seeing maturation in a lot of these basins. And if you just think about whether it’s – you have seen it in the Midland Basin. We are not in the Midland Basin, but you have seen that for several years where every year until you start bringing new resource on, you are going to be continuing to evolve and people tend to go to their highest returns. What – you have seen it in the Bakken. We have seen it in the Eagle Ford. But I can tell you there is many of these basins. We are excited about the potential that we see with restimulation and some tighter spacing. In some cases, we up space in the other areas. We just learned more about the resources we have. But that’s been the history of our business over the last 100 years is plays and basins will mature over time until there is either a change in technology, new intervals are found. And so I think you are just – you are seeing that play out in real time. We are continuing to – but we are excited about what we are seeing. So, hopefully, that’s coming across in our – not only in our prepared remarks, but some of our answers that whether it’s restimulation down in the Eagle Ford, whether it’s what we are seeing the assessment work in the Delaware and other places Powder, Anadarko, we are just really excited about what we have.
Scott Hanold:
Okay. I appreciate the added color. And just one quickly on the fixed dividend, you have spend a little bit time, Jeff, on buybacks and variables. But remind us of your thoughts on the fixed dividend, what – where you want that to be? I think it’s about 1.5% or something to that effect. Do you feel good about that, or would you like to see it stronger relative to the S&P or to some of your, obviously, E&P peers?
Jeff Ritenour:
Yes. No, absolutely. I am glad you asked the question. We are absolutely focused on growing the fixed dividend as we work into the future. And so you should expect us on a year-over-year basis to lean in and grow the fixed dividend as we get more and more confident, obviously, in our base game plan and our framework. It’s – yes, I certainly should have mentioned it earlier. It’s the priority one as it relates to our cash return framework, and it only falls behind, obviously, the financial strength and the balance sheet. So, absolutely expect to see us grow that into the future.
Scott Hanold:
Thanks.
Operator:
Thank you, Scott. We have our next question comes from Paul Cheng from Scotiabank. Paul, your line is now open.
Paul Cheng:
Thank you. Good morning. Two questions, please. First, I think Clay, you mentioned that Bakken is the most mature, and which certainly is the case. And you talked about the refrac and redevelopment opportunity in Eagle, can you talk about within your portfolio, have you already looked at what is the refrac and redevelopment opportunity in Bakken and how long do you think you may be able to hold the current production spread. The same question, going back into the Eagle Ford, I know it’s still early, but for refrac and redevelopment, what kind of WTI and Henry Hub gas price minimum you need in order for those to work? Thank you.
Clay Gaspar:
Yes. So, I will tackle those. Starting with the Williston, it’s a very different reservoir rock than the Eagle Ford. The Eagle Ford is very notoriously tight, low permeability, which is a challenge in trying to initially develop. What we are finding is there are some benefits in redevelopment being able to space in wells later in life and not having some of the challenges that we see in other basins. We are not going to be able to do that same kind of model in many other basins because it’s fairly unique to the Eagle Ford. When it comes to refracs, it’s a little bit different scenario. Williston being on the more mature and also having a fair amount of the development early in the industry’s understanding of how best to complete these wells. There are some really inferior completions, and so the opportunity there is a little bit different. It’s not from a reservoir standpoint, it’s more from a completion standpoint, how do we go in and restimulate some of these wells that were massively under-stimulated. So, therein lies a different opportunity there. The Eagle Ford, you asked about kind of breakeven costs for the refracs, I don’t have a very good number for that. I would say, in the top half of the opportunities that we are looking at, many of those are very competitive with what we are drilling today, which is pretty – a very, very solid return. So, I would put it in that bucket. There is still a lot of work to do on refining how do we figure out where is the line and certainly commodity price will play a role in how many of these refracs and potentially even trifracs, you come back again at a later date. Those opportunities will certainly be commodity price dependent.
Rick Muncrief:
Paul, it’s Rick. I would just say that when I think about those restem opportunities down the Eagle Ford. In my mind, in a $50 world, as long as you are north of $50 and a $3 Henry Hub, you are going to have some pretty good returns. We are pleased with that. One of the things I will add, the previous question we had was around some of the assessment work, just – everybody needs to recall, we are only doing a small percentage of our capital budget with assessment work. It’s not like we are really leaning in on that. We do think it’s important to allocate a certain amount of capital and really excited about what it holds for us. That being said, I know at a time when people are hyper focused on capital efficiency, that’s fair. It really is. But we also need to think about the future. And when I say the future, it’s not next quarter, it’s the next 5 years, 10 years, 15 years, 20 years.
Paul Cheng:
Thank you.
Scott Coody:
Alright. It looks like we are at the top of the hour. I appreciate everyone’s interest in Devon today. And if you have any further questions, please don’t hesitate to reach out to the Investor Relations team at any time. Have a good day everyone.
Operator:
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today’s call. Thank you for joining. You may now disconnect your lines.
Operator:
Welcome to Devon Energy's First Quarter 2023 Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. This call is being recorded. I'd now like to turn the call over to Mr. Scott Coody, Vice President, Investor Relations. Sir, you may begin.
Scott Coody:
Good morning, and thank you to everyone for joining us on the call today. Last night, we issued an earnings release and presentation that cover our results for the first quarter and our outlook for the remainder of 2023. Throughout the call today, we will make references to the earnings presentation to support prepared remarks, and these slides can be found on our website. Also joining me on the call today are Rick Muncrief, our President and CEO; Clay Gaspar, our Chief Operating Officer; Jeff Ritenour, our Chief Financial Officer and a few other members of our senior management team. Comments today will include plans, forecasts and estimates that are forward-looking statements under US Securities Law. These comments are subject to assumptions, risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from our forward-looking statements. Please take note of the cautionary language and risk factors provided in our SEC filings and earnings materials. With that, I'll turn the call over to Rick.
Rick Muncrief:
Thank you, Scott. It's a pleasure to be here this morning. We appreciate everyone taking time to join us. For today's discussion, I'll be focusing on three key topics that I believe are most important to our shareholders at this point. First, I plan to cover our solid first quarter execution. Second, I will run through the steps we've taken to bolster the return of capital to shareholders. And third, I plan to share insights on how our business is positioned to effectively control costs and gain momentum throughout the rest of the year. So to start off, let's turn to our first quarter results on slide 6, where we had several key highlights. First, total oil production exceeded our midpoint guidance at 320,000 barrels per day, representing a growth rate of 11% compared to the year ago period. This level of oil production was the highest in our company's 52-year history. Our strong well productivity in the Delaware Basin was once again a key contributor to this result, and our recently-acquired assets, The Eagle Ford and Williston Basin also provided us higher volumes in the quarter. Clay will touch on our well productivity in greater detail later in the call, but I do want to highlight that the average well placed online in the quarter is on track to recover more than one million barrels of oil equivalent. These strong recoveries are right in line with our historic trends over the past few years, demonstrating the quality, depth and ability to deliver sustainable results across our resource base. Another notable achievement from the first quarter was our team's effective cost management. This was demonstrated by capital expenditures being in line with expectations and operating costs coming in better than our guidance by a few percent. I'll cover this topic in greater detail later in the call with our outlook, but this positive start to the year puts us in a great position to potentially spend fewer dollars in 2023 to achieve our capital objectives for the year. With our first quarter capital activity, we limited reinvestment rates to prudent levels resulting in over $665 million of free cash flow. This marks the 11th quarter in a row our business has generated free cash flow, with oil prices over this time ranging from as low as $40 a barrel to as high as $120 a barrel. This is a great example of Devon's ability to generate meaningful amounts of cash flow -- free cash flow across a variety of market conditions, further showcasing the durability of our strategic plan to create value through the cycle and deliver returns on capital employed that compete with any sector in the S&P 500. With this free cash flow, we continue to reward shareholders through our cash return framework, which was well balanced between dividends and stock buybacks in the most recent quarter. As shown on slide 7, the total cash payout from the shareholder-friendly initiatives reached an annualized rate of around a 12% yield in the first quarter, which significantly exceeds the available opportunities in other sectors of the market. Nearly half of this payout was derived from our distinctive fixed plus variable dividend framework. This consistent formulaic approach, which began almost three years ago has allowed Devon to offer one of the highest yields the entire S&P 500 since its groundbreaking implementation. Now turning to slide 9. In addition to our strong dividend payout, we continue to see attractive value in repurchasing our shares, which we believe traded a significant discount to our intrinsic value. To capitalize on this compelling opportunity, we made substantial progress advancing our buyback program by repurchasing $692 million of shares year-to-date. In addition to our corporate buyback activity, multiple members of our management team, myself included, have also demonstrated their conviction in Devon's value proposition by purchasing stock in the open market over the past few months. With our Board of Directors approving the upsizing of the capacity of our repurchase program by 50%, up to $3 billion, the company is well equipped to be active buyers of our stock over the course of the year. Now moving to slide 11. Looking to the remainder of 2023, there is no change to our disciplined operating plan we laid out for you earlier this year. Now that our Delaware infrastructure is fully operational and actively ramping to place more wells online, we expect our production to grow over the remainder of the year. This momentum places us right on track to average just over 650,000 BOE per day this year, which translates into a healthy production per share growth of approximately 9% on a year-over-year basis. With capital, we've not made any revisions to our outlook of $3.6 billion to $3.8 billion for the year. As a reminder, this capital for cash assumes a low-single-digit inflation rate compared to our 2022 exit rate. However, in the first quarter, we did experience service stock – service price stability for the first time in many quarters, and we began to see signs of increased availability of goods and services due to an overall slowdown in industry activity. If these trends continue, we see potential for downward pressure on service costs later this year and into 2024. With much of our contract book shifting towards shorter duration agreements, we're now well positioned to work with our service partners for better terms as more frequent contract refreshment occurs over the next several quarters. Lastly, on slide 12, I believe this chart does a good job of summarizing the competitiveness of our outlook in 2023. With the plan we've laid out, we continue to possess one of the most capital-efficient programs in the entire industry that is self-funded at a $40 WTI oil price. With this disciplined plan, Devon is well-positioned to continue to generate significant free cash flow and execute all aspects of our cash return model, making 2023, another successful year for us. Now with that, I will now turn the call over to Clay to cover our operational highlights. Clay?
Clay Gaspar:
Thank you, Rick, and good morning, everyone. As Rick touched on earlier, our team did a great job of meeting the first quarter operational targets through solid well productivity, effective cost management and the steady progression of upcoming development projects that will benefit us over the coming quarters. Remember, we're focused not just on delivering the numbers for this quarter and year, but also derisking opportunities for the coming years and also investing in R&D that will create value throughout the coming decade. We're making great progress on all three fronts. This positive start to the year put us in great position to continue to build momentum throughout the course of the year and achieve our corporate objectives for 2023. A significant contributor to the success in this quarter was our franchise asset in the Delaware Basin. As you can see on slide 15, roughly 60% of our capital was deployed to this prolific basin, allowing us to run a consistent program of 16 rigs and four frac crews in the quarter. With this level of drilling and completion activity, we brought online 42 new wells in the quarter, with the majority of this activity targeting high-impact intervals in the Upper Wolfcamp. This focused development program resulted in another quarter of volume growth year-over-year, with oil representing 51% of the product mix. While we had great productivity across our acreage position, our performance during the quarter was headlined by our Exotic Cat Raider project. This 6-well pad located in Lea County, New Mexico, targeted a highly productive area with 3-mile laterals in the Upper Wolfcamp. Individual wells at Exotic Cat flowed at rates over 7,200 BOE per day and well -- per well recoveries from this pad are on track to exceed two million barrels of oil equivalent. The flow rate from this activity rank among the very best projects Devon has ever brought online in the basin. And lastly, on this slide, another key event for us during the quarter was the resumption of operations at our Stateline eight compressor station. This was possible. Thanks to the team's timely efforts in securing replacement equipment and the personnel to safely repair this critical facility. Although this repair work did temporarily limit our production in this part of the field during the quarter, we are confident that we resolved this issue and we do not expect any further disruptions of this nature. Furthermore, we also commenced operations at our Stateline 10 compressor station, providing us another 90 million cubic feet of throughput and even more flexibility in the region going forward. Turning to slide 16. As I look ahead to the remainder of the year, our Delaware asset is well positioned to build upon the solid results we achieved in the first quarter. Overall, with the 200 wells that we plan to bring online this year in the Delaware, we expect well productivity to be very consistent with the high-quality wells we brought online over the past few years. And for context, as shown on the chart to the right, this level of well productivity would not only position Devon among the top operators in this world-class basin, but would also surpass the performance of other top shale plays in the US by a noteworthy margin. This impressive well performance, coupled with a long runway, a high-value inventory, further underscores the competitive advantage and the sustainability of our resource base in the Delaware Basin. Turning to slide 17. Another asset, I'd like to spend some time on today is the Eagle Ford, which is our second-highest funded asset in 2023. Over the past few years, we've taken the disciplined and scientific approach to refine the next phase of development in this prolific field through thoughtful and measured appraisal work. The momentum generated from these learning's is evident in our current capital program, where we are pursuing tighter infill spacing and have active refrac program, with the goal to efficiently sustain a steady production profile and harvest significant free cash flow. This year, we plan to spud over 90 wells, with the majority of this drilling focused on redeveloping acreage with much tighter spacing than originally conceived when we first entered the play a decade ago. We attributed this infield opportunity to high reservoir pressure, a fractured network that heals quickly and low but consistent permeability. This unique combination allows us to pursue significantly tighter spacing, with redevelopment activity targeting 16 to 20 wells per unit across multiple landing zones in the Eagle Ford. In addition to the benefit of oil-weighted recoveries that are projected to exceed 0.5 million barrels per well, our ability to leverage this existing infrastructure in the play also bolsters the returns. These unique and favorable reservoir characteristics in the Eagle Ford provides us with many years of highly competitive drilling inventory. The team has also made steady progress on our refrac program in the Eagle Ford, achieving consistent, successful and restimulating the productivity of older wells. To date, we have roughly 30 refracs online that have successfully accessed untapped resource, resulting in an immediate uplift to the well productivity that has expanded per well reserves by more than 50%. In 2023, we plan to execute around 10 refracs and we've identified several hundred high-return candidates across the field to pursue in the future. While we have made significant progress on improving recoveries through infill spacing and refracs, we believe there's still meaningful resource upside in this play. A catalyst to help us accelerate our learning's in this area is our Zgabay pilot in DeWitt County, which is supported by a grant from the US Department of Energy. The objective of this grant is to fund as field study and create an underground laboratory to improve the effectiveness of shale recoveries by testing new monitoring techniques for both initial stimulation and production as well as collecting critical data to enhance recoveries via refracking and EOR. While we're still in the early stages of gathering and interpreting the data from this project, we have already incorporated learnings into our day-to-day operations. These learnings will enable us to optimize recovery of resources, not only in the Eagle Ford, but across our broader footprint in the US I expect to have more positive updates on this topic in the future. And finally, on slide 18, I'm also excited to talk about the positive results we're seeing delivered on other key assets across our portfolio. As you can see on the graphic to the right, over the past year, we've done some good work to opportunistically build up operating scale in these areas and increase the production by 9%. The main factors that drove this growth were our Dow JV partnership, which helped us regain operational momentum in the Anadarko Basin, the RimRock acquisition in the Williston and the quality assessment work we've done in the Niobrara oil play in the Powder River Basin. That has helped us build for the future. In addition to solid production growth, this diversified group of assets is on pace to generate a meaningful tranche of cash flow that we can deploy to other key strategic priorities such as the return of capital to shareholders. I appreciate the team's hard work and the effort that goes into delivering near-term free cash flow and also derisking valuable future inventory. With that, I'll turn the call over to Jeff for a financial review. Jeff?
Jeff Ritenour:
Thanks, Clay. I'll spend my time today covering the key drivers of our first quarter financial results, and I'll also provide some insights into our outlook for the rest of the year. Beginning with production, our total volumes in the first quarter averaged 641,000 BOE per day. This performance exceeded the midpoint of our guidance for the quarter due to better-than-forecasted well performance across our asset portfolio. Looking ahead, our second quarter completion activity is weighted towards the back half of the period. As a result, we expect volumes to be relatively flat in the second quarter as compared to the first. However, given the cadence of activity, we do expect to build momentum throughout the second quarter, setting up the third quarter to be the highest production quarter for the year. On the capital front, we invested $988 million in the first quarter, which was in line with expectations. Looking ahead to the second quarter, we expect capital spending to remain essentially flat versus the prior period. As a reminder, we do expect to spend more capital in the first half of the year given the timing of completions in the Delaware Basin. This higher level investment in the first half of 2023 sets up Devon for a stronger production profile in the second half of the year. Moving to expenses. We did a good job controlling costs in the quarter with several of our expense categories coming in better than forecast. Looking ahead, as Rick touched on earlier, we're seeing cost pressures plateauing across our business, and with a solid start to the year, we feel very comfortable with our full year guidance ranges for operating cost and corporate expense. Jumping to income tax. After adjusting for non-recurring items, cash taxes were 11% during the first quarter. This better-than-expected result was driven by an R&D tax credit that was taken in the quarter. Looking ahead, we expect our cash tax rate to step up to around 15% for the remainder of the year. Cutting to the bottom-line, Devon's core earnings totaled $952 million or $1.46 per share. This level of earnings translated into operating cash flow of $1.7 billion. After funding our disciplined maintenance capital program, we generated $665 million of free cash flow in the quarter. With this free cash flow, our top priority was to accelerate the return of capital to shareholders. As we communicated in the past, the first call on our excess cash is the funding of our fixed plus variable dividend. Based on our strong first quarter financial performance, we declared a dividend of $0.72 per share. This distribution will be paid at the end of June and once again includes an $0.11 per share benefit from the divestiture contingency payments received earlier in the quarter. Another highlight for the quarter was the continued execution of our ongoing share repurchase program. We remain confident in the intrinsic value of our equity as evidenced by the repurchase of $692 million of our stock so far in 2023. With the Board expanding our share repurchase program to $3 billion, which is equivalent to 9% of our outstanding share count, we have plenty of runway to compound per share growth as we work our way through the year. Moving to the balance sheet. We exited the quarter with $3.9 billion of liquidity, consisting of $887 million of cash on hand and $3 billion of undrawn capacity on our unsecured credit facility. With this strong liquidity, Devon exited the quarter with a low net-to-debt EBITDA ratio of 0.6 times, well below our mid-cycle leverage target of one times or less. Looking ahead, we plan to further improve our balance sheet by retiring additional debt as maturities come due. Our next debt maturity comes due in August of this year, totaling $242 million. We'll have additional opportunities to pare down our debt with maturities coming due in 2024 and 2025 as well. As I look ahead, I'm confident that our financial framework provides us the necessary flexibility to effectively manage through the unpredictable fluctuations of commodity prices, while optimizing value creation for our shareholders. With the business plan designed to generate substantial amounts of free cash flow, we'll look to grow our fixed dividend over time, pay out as much as 50% of our excess cash flow via a variable dividend, opportunistically buy back shares and take additional steps to improve our financial strength. Furthermore, we possess the flexibility within this framework to lean in to any one of these options to maximize result for shareholders. We believe this balanced and transparent approach is differentiated versus peers. With that, I'll now turn the call back to Rick for some closing comments.
Rick Muncrief:
Thank you, Jeff. Great job. I'd like to close today by reiterating a few key messages. Number one, our team did a superb job of meeting the operational targets we set out for ourselves in the first quarter through solid well productivity and effective cost management. Number two, our disciplined execution resulted in another strong financial performance for the company. This is evidenced by the attractive per share growth we're delivering, substantial cash returns realized by investors and the high returns seen on invested capital. Number three, with a solid start to the year, we're now on track to achieve all of our capital objectives in 2023. Inflation is showing signs of plateauing and our business is well positioned to build momentum and generate substantial free cash flow as we progress through the year. Number four, and lastly, we have the resource depth, execution capabilities, financial strength and disciplined business model to continue to deliver sustainable results through the cycle where a premier energy company are also perfectly positioned to benefit from this multiyear upcycle. And with that, I'll now turn the call back over to Scott for Q&A.
Scott Coody:
Thanks, Rick. We'll now open the call to Q&A. Please limit yourself to one question and a follow-up. This allows us to get to more of your questions today on the call. With that, operator, we'll take our first question.
Operator:
Thank you. Our first question comes from Neil Mehta from Goldman Sachs. Neil, please go ahead.
Neil Mehta :
Yes, thank you so much. Appreciate the time. Rick, you alluded in your comments that you might be tracking towards the lower end of the guidance as it relates to CapEx and costs. Can you talk about that? And is that a function of any early signs of cost -- service cost deflation as well?
Rick Muncrief:
Well, Neil, I think we're watching a lot of things. We have seen a softening in the market, but I think as we've laid out in our guidance, there's really no change. We'll see how it plays out through the year, but as I alluded to, and then Clay had in his prepared remarks, we are seeing some softening and we'll just see on how that plays out. But I do see right now, no change.
Neil Mehta :
And then the follow-up is just around the Q2 guide, obviously strong Q1 results. Q2 oil guide was a little bit below consensus. Is that just timing of completion and activity? And just anything you could say around the cadence of volumes over the course of the year?
Rick Muncrief:
Yes. It is strictly time. And I'll have Clay weigh in, also more color, Neil.
Clay Gaspar:
Yes. Neil, just think of the -- our band, as we try and pursue flat production, is somewhere in that 320, maybe 330 right -- or excuse me 320 to 330, excuse me, that band in there. And I think the second quarter is going to be on the low end as we expect that third quarter to be on the high end of that range. But no, our original guide, that's still very much intact and we feel good about it. As you start really dialing in, I mean, the plus or minus 1% of our numbers, it's definitely affected by timing. You bring that big pad on early in the quarter, later in the quarter. We've got some other things going. We're a little front-end loaded on the capital with that fourth frac crew. So you'll see that kind of peel off. That affects kind of the very tail end of the year, but we'll see the biggest quarter of the year in the third quarter.
Neil Mehta :
Make a lot of sense. Thank you guys.
Rick Muncrief:
Thanks, Neil.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from Arun Jayaram from JPMorgan. Arun, please go ahead.
Arun Jayaram :
Yes. Good morning. Clay, maybe for you. I was wondering if you could provide some thoughts on the integration of the RimRock and the latest assets, we've seen production. Maybe down a little bit since on a premier former basis versus when you announced the deals, but I wondering if you could talk about how those assets are performing relative to your expectations?
Clay Gaspar:
Sure, Arun. Good question. I appreciate it, and I'll look -- I'll pan out just a little bit because we did RimRock and Validus kind of back to back. I would say, from an integration standpoint, they've both gone exceptionally well. We certainly learned some things on RimRock, we immediately applied to Validus and always looking to continue to get better. Specifically on the Validus side, we're certainly learning things, I've alluded to in some of my remarks, additional upside that we didn't even contemplate in that acquisition. On the RimRock side, or the Williston, really the Northern US, has been plagued by some pretty cold weather. That has not -- we've definitely been affected by that. And then digging out from that, everyone is reaching for those workover rigs, kind of all reaching for the same equipment, so there's a little bit of a backlog associated with that. And then honestly, we've seen a little bit of more offset frac activity that we've shut wells in for, so that impacts things. But one of the things we're learning about the late innings in Williston is some of these wells would have kind of complicated depletion metrics to them. So you have -- might had a crosscut well that has a lower -- a little bit more depletion in part of that lateral. That's causing some interesting things around how do we clean these wells out, how do we provide the right artificial lift. We've made some really good strides there. Really excited about the latest group of wells that are coming online. But I think all three of those factors have caused us to probably underperform a little bit in the second quarter relative to expectations, first and second quarter. But I see that already in the second quarter, things are starting to pick up, and I'm really excited about that asset and it continues to be such a critical piece of Devon's portfolio.
Arun Jayaram:
Great. And my follow-up, Clay, it sounds like the team is working on some R&D efforts to unlock inventories. So I was wondering if you could maybe detail what exactly you're testing and perhaps some opportunities to grow your inventory base?
Clay Gaspar :
Yeah. There's a lot of it going around the company and a lot of stuff that we're -- is pretty early innings. We're not talking a whole lot just yet, but one that we are talking about is in South Texas, the Zgabay project, in particular Department of Energy-funded, something that we've shared pretty broadly with the industry in a number of forums. And the real win so far have been from completion design, refracking and then the earliest knowledge we're getting around some EOR, some enhanced oil recovery. So that's all very exciting. I can tell you we've already put some of that information to work. The refracking activity is very encouraging. Some of that is pretty unique to the Eagle Ford. Talked about some of the reservoir characteristics there. It has an ability to stay really -- the original completion tends to stay very near wellbore, and so it gives you that opportunity to feather in a few more wells or other basins. That just really doesn't work very well. And then the re-stem, figuring out the techniques how to go about this, how to prosecute this and we've seen tremendous upside. So all of that is great inventory. And most of it, to be honest, is upside from what we underwrote with the Validus acquisition.
Arun Jayaram:
Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from Neal Dingmann from Truist. Neal, please go ahead.
Neal Dingmann :
Good morning, guys. Thanks for the time. My first question is just on shareholder returns, specifically Rick for -- you are one of the guys. Just -- are there certain levels where you'd continue to materially lean into the buybacks based under assume sort of mid-cycle prices? And then if you continue to have some nice divestitures like you had, would those continue to go to incremental variable dips?
Jeff Ritenour:
Yeah, Neal, this is Jeff. Yeah, thanks for the question. What you're going to see from us is more of the same on the model, and you described it well, which was certainly to the extent where we see opportunities to buy back our shares, when we see that valuation dislocate, if you will, from our view of the intrinsic value which certainly happened in the first quarter. Post our February call, we saw the stock trade on a relative basis to the peers in a negative way. And we jumped in with both feet and bought back shares in a big way. We think that's the beauty and the balance of our -- the flexibility of our model, which is it provides us the cash and the wherewithal to go take advantage of those opportunities. So moving forward, that's absolutely our expectation. If we see the stock trade off relative to the group or dislocate from our view of intrinsic value over the longer term, you should expect for us to lean in on the share repurchase program. All the while, our first priority is to sustain and grow the fixed dividend, which we plan to continue to do, and then feather in the variable dividend, the -- up to 50% of our free cash flow in any given quarter is going to go to the variable dividend. So that flexibility and balance that we have in the model, we think has served us really well over the last three years, and you should expect that to continue going forward.
Neal Dingmann:
Yes, that's great. You all stepping into that. And then secondly, my question probably, Clay, for you or Rick on the Delaware infrastructure. Rick, it sounded like you were confident, you all have the needed infrastructure now in place to handle the growth. The remainder of the year, I'm just wondering if you all could talk about now, maybe what the buildouts look like or what type of growth that infrastructure now can handle in the coming quarters. It looks like -- sounds like, it's where you want it to be.
Rick Muncrief:
Yes. Thanks, so Neil, I mean, we've -- I mentioned Clay and Clay drove home the point. We're really confident in our infrastructure -- actually the recovery and from downtime. And more importantly, we are staying ahead of it. We have a great team that -- on the build-out. It's working really well. And then we have third-party providers that we have great relationships with, and we have a tendency to try to work a year and two and three years down the road. And when you've got the inventory we do, the execution you do, you can sit down with people and plan that out because that's what the Permian is going to continue to need year after year after year as continued infrastructure growth. And I'd say it's going really well.
Neal Dingmann:
No, I appreciate that. Thank you, Rick.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from John Freeman from Raymond James. John, please go ahead.
John Freeman:
Good morning. Thanks a lot. Looking at the success of the 3-milers you did on those six Wolfcamp wells, do you have a sense of how much of your acreage, what percent maybe of those undeveloped locations would be candidates for those three-mile developments in the Delaware?
Clay Gaspar:
John, I will wing it a little bit. I think it's about 20% this year that we're going to be drilling the three-mile laterals. It's always a little bit in flux. We're always trying to trade the opportunities. I can tell you, our -- we feel very confident in the returns of the two-mile laterals. That's kind of our go-to with most of our acreages set up. I think it's just really where we see those opportunities to turn a one mile into a two or turn a few ones into a three, those turn into really phenomenal economics. So what I would say is operationally, we're very comfortable drilling three-mile laterals today. I think we've got that recipe down. So operationally, it's not a challenge. It's strictly just looking at the land and where is it set up for 2s and where is it set up for 3s.
John Freeman:
Great, and then just my follow-up question. I just want to make sure that in the filings, I'm kind of interpreting this correctly. So the contingency payments, the remaining $130 million you got from Barnett. At the current strip, should I assume you get the remaining $65 million in 1Q '24, the other $65 million 1Q '25 at the current strip?
Jeff Ritenour:
Yes, John. You're exactly right. As it relates to the contingency payments, it varies obviously by commodity price, both oil and gas. And at a $65 oil price, which above a $65 oil price where we are today, we would expect to receive around $20 million. And then from a gas price standpoint, it's tiered from $2.75 all the way up to $3.50, and the variability there is anywhere from $20 million to $45 million. So, where the current strip sits today, I haven't looked at -- you're probably somewhere in the mid-3s, I would guess. So that would be another $25 million or $35 million that you could expect to receive on top of that oil payment.
John Freeman:
That’s great. Thanks a lot guys. Appreciate it.
Jeff Ritenour:
Thank you, John.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from David Deckelbaum from Cowen. David, please go ahead.
David Deckelbaum:
Thanks for taking my questions today guys. Just wanted to follow up on some of the thoughts around the buybacks in the first quarter and using the cash balance opportunistically. Does that in any way sort of inform your view on how you're looking at further consolidation this year? Obviously, Devon was a pretty active participant last year, but are the opportunities that you're seeing in the A&D market just sort of less robust than what you would have seen last year relative to the on value of your own stock?
Rick Muncrief:
Dave, good question. I think for us, when we did the two transactions last year, we talked about the metrics that we bought those packages at and you've heard Clay talk about some of the -- particularly down in the Eagle Ford, some of the additional upside that we've seen. So we feel very, very good about those. I think the market has pulled back up too, expectations are a little higher. Some of the packages in the market today, I think we'll probably take -- we'll look at them. But once again, we have a high bar. And I don't know that you'll see us being that active in some of the packages that are out in the market today. So we see how that all plays out. But once again, that takeaway is a high bar. And if it fits us, makes sense for our strategy, then something we may consider.
David Deckelbaum:
I appreciate that. And Clay, if I could just ask a little bit more about ZGABAY. Just more around the scope of the project, how long the DOE grant last for in this partnership? And then, in terms of EOR, are you looking at gas re-injection, or is it all CO2? Is it mostly re-fracs? I guess just the total scope and duration and how this would be applied to some of your other active basins.
Clay Gaspar:
Yes. Excellent question, I love talking about it. This was a project that I think was originally conceived in West Texas. That project ended up falling through and through some great work of our team here being very heads up, say, hey, we've got an opportunity where we can do some of those same things in the Eagle Ford. We've got the right set up, the geology operations, and it was taken up. So we did a lot of very interesting work. We took a horizontal core to really understand that fracture network. I talked about these fractures healing up and what that means to that stimulated rock volume, and ultimately, our depletion zone that we're seeing on any individual wellbore. So we were able to see where do those fractures kind of breakthrough, where do we actually have proppant, and therefore, where do we think we're actually seeing some of the depletion. We've used that information in our stimulation design, knowing what the original recipe was, kind of how do we alter that. And then, as we go back into these re-fracs, as you can imagine, it's a mechanical complicated activity. You have to go in and run a liner and then ultimately, you're trying to stimulate new rock. And so with this information, we've been able to leverage that science and go in and really, we believe, stimulate new and incremental rock and really up the reserves, the recoveries from these original well-bores. That's all been not just scientifically exciting in practice, seeing the returns and seeing that value come through. When we look at EOR, this project is really about injecting natural gas and a huff-and-puff kind of model. That's still an early project, understanding how that works. We have a lot of monitoring subsurface from gauges to fiber optics and really watching for what are we influencing from that injection and how ultimately we were covering more rock. So there's a lot of good information out there. The team has done a phenomenal job at presenting at various technical conferences. So if you're interested, there's lots of great intel out there to dig further into.
David Deckelbaum:
Thanks Clay and thanks for your time guys.
Clay Gaspar:
Thank you, Dave.
Operator:
Thank you. The next question comes from Matthew Portillo from TPH. Matthew, please go ahead.
Matthew Portillo:
Good morning all.
Clay Gaspar:
Hi Matt.
Matthew Portillo:
Just to start out, as we look across the portfolio, it's nice to have a diversified asset. Curious, as you guys look at the returns by basin and with the volatility in the commodity strip, how you're thinking about capital allocation to some of the basins like the ANADARKO in particular, given low natural gas and NGL prices as well as some downside volatility to crude oil as we progress through the year?
Clay Gaspar:
Hey Matt, this is Clay. Great question, in the last 12 months, we've kind of tested every flavor of commodity price. High oil price, low oil price, high relative gas price, 10:1, it was $80 and $8 at one point. And so we've run the sophisticated model that we have in a number of scenarios really looking for when does our portfolio really command that we shift the capital allocation materially? And what was interesting is, in all of those scenarios that we ran even some of the gas-levered opportunities, it still said keep pushing towards oil, keep pushing towards the Permian, the Delaware Basin. We're still always commanding capital first. As we've matured our understanding of places like the Eagle Ford, certainly, it's risen up. And with the acquisition of Validus, it's commanding more capital, as I mentioned earlier. As we stress test the gas side, certainly, things like the gas-prone areas of the Anadarko become more stressed. But remember, the preponderance of our investment is on the Dow JV, which is the gas condensater. So you get a high -- significant amount of condensate in those wells, and then also that carry really helps us support pretty phenomenal economics even in this commodity price environment. Now look, we're always watching. We're always rerunning this. This isn't a single once-a-year scenario. This is a monthly exercise. We're always stress testing, and you can bet we're making changes on the margins. We will pull a few wells out of the system for this year, replace a few as opportunities come our way. Maybe it's a trade that just came to us or a new opportunity that the team has discovered. We're always evolving on the margins. But what I can tell you is our program is very consistent and very robust, certainly even in today's commodity price and service cost because we believe the service cost is still decoupled from today's commodity price.
Matthew Portillo:
Great and then, Clay, maybe as a follow-up for one of the longer-dated resource basins in your portfolio. Just curious your updated thoughts on the Powder? I know it's not overly active this year, but you'll continue to progress the Niobrara in particular. Kind of curious how you've seen results so far and how maybe the costs are stacking up there as well?
Clay Gaspar:
Matt, great question. I love talking about the Powder because it is kind of behind-the-scenes. It is something that I'm really, really proud of the work that the team has done. On the front end of the challenge is de-risking the productivity. Making sure that when we drill a well, wherever we are in the basin, that we have a good understanding of what it can deliver. The second order is how do we get the cost structure down, so that we generate the right competitive return? I can tell you on the former, we've made tremendous progress, and that's really exciting. To me, that's the -- if you don't have good rock, you can't do anything about that. We've got good rock. We've been able to improve the productivity, prove that up time and time again. On the well cost, to me, that surface considerations that we can always improve on. Have a tremendous confidence in the team to be able to drive those costs down in time. And so that is something we're now working on to ultimately get to a place of more competitive and sustainable returns. But we've got a ton of inventory there. It is very oil prone, and that will certainly have its day in the sun in the coming years. So really great progress from the team there.
Matthew Portillo:
Thank you.
Clay Gaspar:
Thanks, sir.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from Scott Hanold from RBC. Scott, please go ahead.
Scott Hanold:
Yes, thanks. Hey, Jeff, I was just kind of curious. When you step back and look at the balance sheet, I mean, you got about $800 million, $900 million of cash. I know you talked about the debt coming due, you want to take down later this year. But as you start thinking about the quantum of incremental buybacks, do you all just really focus on what is left in free cash flow, or is there some optionality to utilize the cash balance? And any color on kind of working cap per -- cash needs per working capital too would be helpful.
Jeff Ritenour:
Yes. You bet, Scott. It's a good question and one we've been thinking a lot about. If you think about our cash balance, what you heard me say historically, it's somewhere between $500 million to $1 billion cash balance on the balance sheet. It's kind of what we try to optimize for and work towards. You've seen us kind of hover around that level, certainly over the last several quarters. Moving forward, we're going to stay focused on the financial model that we've been pursuing for the last three years, with 50% going to the variable and then 50% accruing back to the balance sheet. We feel really comfortable with our leverage position where it is today. Obviously, we've got a target out there of kind of one times net debt to EBITDA. We're significantly below that currently. We certainly would flex up and back and forth depending on the market conditions and that, again, is what we think is the real beauty of our model, which it provides us the flexibility as we did this last quarter to utilize free cash flow generated, whether it's the current quarter or previous quarters, and then push that back into a buyback program, right? So obviously, over this last quarter, we chose to pull down the cash balance. That's certainly something we might do in the future as well, depending on the market conditions that we see. And really, it's the real benefit of the flexibility of the model that we've rolled out, which allows us along with the strength of our balance sheet to really step in and take advantage of opportunities. Whether it be acquisitions that we saw, obviously, last year or the stock buyback opportunity that we saw here in the first quarter.
Scott Hanold:
Thanks. That's a good answer and maybe this one is for Clay. When you think about the tighter spacing in the Eagle Ford, I know we've -- the industry has gone from tightening and widening and tightening in whether it's a Permian and the Eagle Ford before, and it seems like there's always an aptitude to eventually go back to wider spacing when oil prices come down. But can you kind of speak to the resiliency of this tighter spacing if we do see lower oil prices? Do you guys think you'll stick with it, or is that just work given the current context around oil prices in the strip?
Clay Gaspar:
Yes. It's an excellent point because it -- we certainly, as an industry, have lived all of those spectrums, and myself included. So, while we generally believe up-spacing is the right move in most basins, we would rather have more robust returns and be able to withstand a fall in commodity price. I think that has generally served us better time and time again. As we look at the Eagle Ford and certainly the maturity of that basin, we're really looking at how do you get those remaining resources most effectively depleted. And so the work that we did at Zgabay [ph] is part of the -- a significant part of the highlight. When you're really kind of sampling that rock, really understanding how that wellbore drainage is really happening downhole, that gives you great insight into not just blindly down-spacing and hoping for the best or statistically hoping for the best, this gives you very good kind of tangible evidence of what we're doing there. We're going to be real cautious about it. Certainly, we have -- we've been very, very pleased with the results so far. But we will continue to watch service cost, continue to watch commodity price, and always reserve the right to get smarter.
Scott Hanold:
Fair enough. Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from Doug Leggate from Bank of America. Doug, please go ahead.
Doug Leggate:
Thanks. Good morning everyone. Thanks for taking my questions. Rick, it's not so long -- it's not so long ago that Devon was not only the best performing stock in the sector over an extended period, but the best performing stock the S&P 500. I think it was most of 2021, if I recollect. I'm wondering, given that one could argue the market has, therefore, recognized the value of what the combined company is and benchmarking the free cash flow capacity with some additional tax headwinds perhaps going ahead, I'm wondering how you would characterize your value proposition today? What do you think you need to do to break out beyond just a call on the commodity?
Rick Muncrief:
Yes, I think, Doug, just -- it's incumbent upon this management team. We just need to execute. We just need to stay confident in our plan or strategy. We got great assets, and I do think we've seen some volatility speak to the outperformance that we saw a couple of years ago. That's real, very well documented. And so when you have a period of softness or what appears to be softness in execution, whether it's -- whether or not, and not weather, but whether or not, we saw a pullback and -- because it impacted our numbers. And I think in my mind, maybe a little bit too much so, and -- but at the end of the day, that sets us up for the share repurchase program. We just think that our shares are under way too much pressure. It provides a great opportunity for us and ultimately for shareholders, so that's how we're addressing it. The bottom-line is we have got, as I mentioned, the assets. We've got the inventory. We're doing some great things. I think you've heard some examples from Clay around some of the technological advancements that we're making, I think in some cases, leading the industry, and that's going to continue. That's part of our genetic makeup. And so I think we just have to stay after it and stay confident with our plan and keep executing. And I think things will work out for us.
Doug Leggate:
Okay. I know it's a tricky one to answer, and I appreciate your perspective. My follow-up is on the 0% to 5% growth. Not target necessarily, but outcome that you laid out at the time of the merger. Obviously, the incremental bolt-ons have got you there this year. What about the go forward? And I'm thinking what would the capital budget have to look like to support that? And do you think 12 years of inventory, is enough to support that kind of go-forward visibility?
Rick Muncrief:
Yes. Well, first off, when we talk about the 12 years of inventory, that's -- make sure you -- we're honest with each other, and we realize that's what's -- that's not contemplating the additional inventory that we see out there that will move over to the near-term bucket. And so the way I look at it is we have closer to a 20-year inventory. When you start looking across our entire asset base, some of the ideas that we have, some of the assessment work that we're doing. I think you and I have talked about that before, making sure we continue to work for the future. So I think we've got an extended runway on inventory. So the 5% -- 0% to 5%, that's what we laid out at the time of the merger. We stuck to that gun. The way we've looked at it is, really there has not been a huge call on getting up to that 5% growth. So our focus has been let's continue to implement on a per share basis. And so when you start looking at some of the transactions that we did, the accretion there, you start looking at the buybacks. I think that's, what we hear continually from our largest shareholders, Doug. Let's focus on those per share growth metrics and let's continue to build this thing for the long haul.
Doug Leggate:
I like shared comment. Thanks so much, Rick
Rick Muncrief:
Okay. Thank you
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from Paul Cheng from Scotiabank. Paul, please go ahead.
Paul Cheng:
Hi, good morning, everyone. I have to apologize first because I want to go back into the variable dividend and buyback. Rick, you just mentioned that we should focus on the per share metrics. From that standpoint, will the buyback be a more preferred way to return cash to the shareholders and variable dividend? And also, then after more than two years -- have we looked at it and do you believe the stock or that the company has been rewarded for the variable dividend given that your yield is so high already? That's the first question.
Jeff Ritenour:
Yes, Paul, this is Jeff.
Rick Muncrief:
Yes. Go ahead, Jeff, and I'll follow up.
Jeff Ritenour:
Yes. I was just going to say again, Paul, and we talked about this a lot with you in the past. With us, it's all of the above. So we've delivered on a sustainable fixed dividend which we're growing over time. We've got the framework which allows for the variable dividend up to 50% and then stock buybacks on top of that. We're not biased to one or the other. Over the long term, we think that balanced approach makes the most sense. Certainly, as Rick mentioned earlier, to the extent that we see an opportunity to jump in and buy back our shares when we see a dislocation versus intrinsic value, we're going to do that, and that has the opportunity to accrete per share growth for us over time. But at the end of the day, it's about total shareholder return, right? It's not just the dividend, it's not just the buyback, it's not just the stock price, it's that total shareholder return. And we think over the longer term, this model and this balanced approach will deliver the best results. And I'll point out over the last two years, we're the number one company as it relates to total shareholder return and that includes the last several quarters. So we feel pretty confident in our game plan. We're going to keep our head down and execute and deliver on that game plan. And we think when we wake up many, many years from now, we will have delivered a great result for shareholders.
Paul Cheng:
Okay. The second question is probably for Clay. I think you answered the earlier question saying that 20% of the Delaware Basin well to be drilled this year will be three miles. If we look at your risk inventory of 4,500, do you have a rough estimate that what percentage of that number just on the three miles? Thank you.
Clay Gaspar:
Hey Paul, I'm going to fuzzy that number. On the 20%, reminder, that's a rough number for this year and probably a little bit rougher. But I would say directionally, it's probably about the same, maybe a little bit lighter to that number as I think forward on the inventory. Remember, a lot of this happens kind of evolves in our land shop as they make trades and kind of extend that runway a little bit, so it's a pretty healthy number. Our standard is two miles. Again, the returns on two-mile laterals in the Delaware Basin are phenomenal. And so we don't need that three-mile to make the numbers work. But when it comes our way, it sure is a nice thing. And once again, I feel very confident in our operational ability to execute on three-mile laterals. That's become a fairly standard fair for the team in the Delaware.
Paul Cheng:
And can you just -- curious that the opportunity of trade up and make the well from, say, two miles into three miles or even one mile to three miles, is it focusing primarily in Delaware, or that -- another basin that you also see the opportunity there?
Clay Gaspar:
Yes, we've drilled three-mile wells in multiple basins. And certainly, the Niobrara and the Powder is kind of built on a three-mile concept. We've drilled at least 20 years, 30 wells, three-mile wells in the Williston, so this is something that we feel very confident in our ability to execute on. And again, most of our performance, most of our wells we execute on are actually about two-mile laterals in general and that's become kind of our standard. But where the opportunity presents, we feel very comfortable in executing three-mile laterals.
Paul Cheng:
All right. Thank you. Thank you.
Rick Muncrief:
Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from Roger Read from Wells Fargo. Roger, please go ahead.
Roger Read:
Yes. Thanks. Good morning.
Rick Muncrief:
Good morning.
Roger Read:
I'd like to come back to a couple of maybe the more operational questions. Your comments earlier about where you're seeing inflation, maybe get an idea of how sort of the, let's call it, disinflation maybe at this point would flow through? Where you're seeing it? Where we should expect to see maybe the bigger benefits?
Clay Gaspar:
Yes, Roger, this is Clay. The last couple of earnings calls, I've talked more about the tone of the conversation. And I think that's your best -- in my view, best leading indicator where prices are gone. And it's gone from a very aggressive, you-will-take-our-prices-or-you're-not-going-to-get-our-equipment circa two or three quarters ago to something a little more along the lines of, hey, we love you guys, you're our favorite customer. We really want to work with you, but we're not conceding on price. I would say state-of-the-art today is lots of inbound phone calls, lots of equipment available. They're really, really trying to hang on to pricing, but some areas are starting to slip, and so we're starting to see some deflation in a couple of categories. The headline, of course, is pipe. We're seeing that kind of materially start to move through in the second half of the year. And then we're starting to see some smaller categories as well start to come down. Again, I'll remind you, for us in particular, we took our fourth quarter numbers, put about a single-digit inflation on top of that and that's how we plan for 2023. I think we're still in line with that. We still have contracts, two and three-year old contracts that are maturing this year that will be going up to offset some of the wins that we're seeing in the deflationary category. I would say state-of-the-art today, things have leveled out. We're seeing a few wins in a couple of categories, but the availability is a material change and our ability to high grade equipment, high-grade crews has really continued to translate into better operations, in fact, moving the wells quicker through the drilling and completions phase.
Roger Read:
Okay. So we should expect not just a decline in cost, but you would expect also an improvement in productivity as you high grade across the board?
Clay Gaspar:
Yeah, we're definitely seeing some of that. We see some of that in the second quarter already, activity being pulled forward. And these are just a few days at a time, but that's one of the things we're seeing from a capital standpoint in the second quarter.
Roger Read:
Okay, great. And then my follow-up question is on the refrac wells. I know it's early days in this, but I was just curious, is there a type of well or a vintage of well that works best? And then going back to a question earlier about where you should put your money in terms of the returns. I'm guessing oil over gas. But just as a broad comment, how does the return on a refrac compare to the returns on new drilling, your capital program as currently laid out?
Clay Gaspar:
Yeah. I think you're in the right categories when you're thinking about what is the ideal candidate. Ideally, really good rock that was really understimulated, maybe an ancient design that had a larger final string, like a 5.5-inch casing string, that you can run inside of and seal that back off and reperforate and restimulate. That's our ideal scenario, but we've tested beyond that. We said, what about a more modern completion? What about in not the most ideal rock, but the medium rock? And we've seen favorable results there. As you can imagine, it acts up like any portfolio. You have some of your best candidates that compete head-to-head with new wells. And then you have lots of middle grade contact -- middle grade opportunities, and those are the ones we're continuing to evaluate. Maybe there's a little tweak on the stimulation design that we can push those into the very best category, like some of those ones we've seen upfront. So still relatively early days, but very pleased with the progress. And again, this is -- the beautiful thing is the land is already paid for, the surface facility is already paid for, the infrastructure is already in place, and that can really help these returns from an immediacy and a capital efficiency standpoint.
Roger Read:
Appreciate it. Thank you.
Clay Gaspar:
Thanks Roger.
Scott Coody:
Well, it looks like we're at the end of our time slot for today. We appreciate everyone's interest in Devon, and if you have any further questions, please don't hesitate to reach out to the Investor Relations team at any time. Have a good day.
Operator:
This concludes today's call. Thank you, everyone, for joining us today. You may now disconnect your lines.
Operator:
Welcome to Devon Energy’s Fourth Quarter Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. This call is being recorded. I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Scott Coody, Vice President of Investor Relations. Sir, you may begin.
Scott Coody:
Good morning. And thank you to everyone for joining us on the call today. Last night we issued an earnings release and presentation that cover our results for the quarter and our outlook for Devon in 2023. Throughout the call today, we will make references to the earnings presentation to support prepared remarks, and these slides can be found on our website. Also joining me on the call today are Rick Muncrief, our President and CEO; Clay Gaspar, our Chief Operating Officer; Jeff Ritenour, our Chief Financial Officer; and a few other members of our senior management team. Comments today will include plans, forecasts and estimates that are forward-looking statements under U.S. securities law. These comments are subject to assumptions, risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from our forward-looking statements. Please take note of the cautionary language and risk factors provided in our SEC filings and earnings materials. With that, I'll turn the call over to Rick.
Rick Muncrief :
Thank you, Scott. It's great to be here this morning. We appreciate everyone taking the time to join us. On the call today, I will cover three key topics
Clay Gaspar :
Thank you, Rick, and good morning, everyone. In addition to our strong 2022 financial results, Devon also continued a run of strong operational execution as well. As you can see on Slide 14, this was evidenced by several noteworthy accomplishments including a new all-time high for oil production that was underpinned by another year of world-class well productivity in the Delaware. Devon's oil-weighted production mix, coupled with our low-cost asset base, allowed us to capture record margins and maintain low reinvestment rates of just over 30% of cash flow. We also efficiently expanded our resource base in 2022 with proved reserves advancing 12% through the combination of strong drilling results and by seamlessly integrating two property acquisitions during the year. Flipping to Slide 15. You can see that these strong operating results in '22 also place us in the top echelon of capital efficiency for the entire industry, differentiating Devon in this crowded and competitive space. These operational achievements across every phase of the business demonstrate the power of Devon's advantaged asset portfolio, the success of our rigorous capital allocation process and the quality of our people to extract the most value out of these assets through superior execution. For the remainder of my prepared remarks, I plan to discuss the key capital objectives and catalyst of our '23 operating plan. For '23, we plan to maintain a very similar activity level as compared to the fourth quarter of '22, which was the first full quarter of operations with our recently acquired assets in the Williston Basin and Eagle Ford. Overall, we plan to run consistently 25 rigs throughout the year, resulting in approximately 400 new wells placed online in 2023. Turning to Slide 16. Once again, the Delaware Basin will be the top funded asset in our portfolio, representing roughly 60% of our total capital budget for this year. To execute on this plan, we will operate 16 rigs across our acreage footprint with the sweet spots in Southern Lea and Eddy Counties in the Stateline area of Texas, receiving most of the funding. Approximately 90% of our capital will be allocated towards high-return development activity in the Upper Wolfcamp and Bone Spring while the remaining 10% will be allocated towards delineating upside opportunities in a deeper Wolfcamp that will add to the depth and quality of our inventory in the basin. Importantly, we expect overall well productivity from this program to be very consistent with the high-quality wells we have brought online over the past few years. We are also well positioned to maximize value for our production in the Delaware for the upcoming year. The marketing team has done an excellent job of diversifying across multiple transportation outlets and sales points allowing us to avoid many of the takeaway constraints in the basin. Looking specifically at the gas volumes, approximately 95% of our gas in the Delaware is protected by either firm takeaway constraints -- excuse me, contracts, or Gulf Coast by regional basis swaps. With oil production, we expect our revenue to benefit from access to premium Brent pricing through Pin Oak's export terminal in Corpus Christi. This advanced pricing, combined with low LOE plus GP&T cost structure of around $7 per BOE will drive another year of strong margins and excellent free cash flow from this franchise asset. And lastly, on this slide, I would like to provide a few more thoughts on our first quarter infrastructure downtime in the Delaware. As pointed out on the map, in late January, we had a fire at one of our compressor stations in the Stateline area that severely damaged the electrical system and the [DI] unit. The station is our largest operated compressor facility in the basin with capacity of 90 million cubic feet per day and is a key component to our centralized gas lift operations in the surrounding area. We have secured necessary replacement equipment and the team is currently on site repairing the facility. With this disruption and other third-party midstream downtime in the area, we expect to have a negative production impact of 10,000 BOE per day in the first quarter. With the quick reaction time and the team's focus on safety and recovery, we expect to have this facility back up and the affected production fully restored by mid-March, and we do not expect to have any negative production impacts drag into the second quarter. Turning to Slide 17 and moving on to the Eagle Ford. The team has done a great job integrating the Validus acquisition into our operations resulting in our fourth quarter production nearly doubling to 68,000 BOE per day. With this increased scale, the Eagle Ford will play a much bigger role in our capital allocation in the upcoming year, accounting for just over 15% of our total capital spend. During the year, we plan to run a steady 3-rig program with 70% of the activity deployed towards developing our recently acquired acreage in Karnes County with the remaining capital invested in our JV partner, [WPX] in DeWitt County. Overall, this development-oriented activity is designed to maintain steady production in 2023. Looking beyond the production trajectory, a key catalyst for this asset in the upcoming year will be the continued appraisal of resource upside from tighter redevelopment spacing and refracs. Early results indicate there's a lot more oil to be recovered from this prolific play over time. As we get more data points, I expect to provide more commentary on this important resource expansion catalyst in the near future. Moving to the Anadarko Basin. In 2022, the team's approach of wider well spacing and larger completions design consistently delivered triple-digit returns with the benefit of our $100 million carry with Dow. As we look ahead to 2023, I expect continued value creation as we plan to deploy a steady program of 4 operated rigs once again carried by Dow. This program is expected to result in around 40 new wells placed online, focused on primarily the co-development of the Meramec and the Woodford formations in the condensate window of the play. The carried returns of these projects will once again be very strong, allowing us to maintain a steady production profile throughout the year while harvesting significant amounts of free cash flow. For both the Williston and the Powder River Basins, I want to begin by acknowledging the tremendous job our field personnel did in fighting through extremely challenging weather conditions over the past few months. While operations in the fourth quarter were certainly slowed due to these artic conditions, the production from the business was resilient, collectively averaging 80,000 BOE per day between these assets in the Williston and the Powder River Basin. Looking ahead to 2023, approximately 10% of our capital spend will be deployed across these two plays resulting in approximately 50 new wells placed online during the year. Approximately 2/3 of the Rockies capital activity will reside in the Williston Basin. In 2023, the capital objectives for this asset are to efficiently sustain production through low-risk infill drilling, evaluate resource upside with a handful of refrac test, and generate around $700 million of cash flow at today's pricing. In the Powder, our objective is designed to build upon the 3-mile lateral success from last year by taking the next step in the progression of the Niobrara with spacing tests of up to 4 wells per unit. These pilots would not only help us better understand spacing but also help us inform optimal landing zones and completion designs. The key takeaway here is that Powder is one of the few emerging oil plays in North America, and we have a 300,000-acre net position in the core of the oil fairway providing Devon an important oil growth catalyst for the future. Overall, we're very excited about the prospects in 2023. I believe with the high-quality slate of projects we have lined up for the upcoming year, we expect to continue to deliver top-tier capital efficiency that investors have become accustomed to. We're also well positioned to refresh and add our depth of inventory as we execute on these programs in 2023. A good visual reminder of Devon's depth of inventory and upside potential is on Slide 18. I've covered this topic at length during previous calls, so I won't go through the details today, but I do want to emphasize two key takeaways from this slide. First, we have identified roughly 12 years of high-return development inventory evaluated at mid-cycle prices. This inventory positions us to deliver highly competitive results for the foreseeable future. And secondly, I want to highlight that this inventory does not fall off a cliff at the end of year 12. We expect to systematically refresh this inventory over time as we successfully characterize and derisk the many upside opportunities that exist across our diverse set of assets. And lastly, on Slide 19, we are continuing to make significant strides our environmental performance as outlined in our recently published sustainability report. This comprehensive report details Devon's aggressive mid- and long-term ESG targets, including those highlighted on the right side of the slide as well as meaningful steps that we've taken towards meeting these targets. Our actions demonstrate the priority we have placed on long-term carbon reduction intensity of our operations. I'm really proud of the team's commitment to doing business in the right way, which means balancing three mandates
Jeff Ritenour :
Thanks, Clay. I'd like to spend my time today discussing the highlights of our financial performance in 2022 and the capital allocation priorities for our free cash flow as we head into 2023. A good place to start is with a review of Devon's 2022 financial performance, where operating cash flow totaled $1.9 billion in the fourth quarter, an 18% increase versus the year ago period. This level of cash flow funded all capital requirements and resulted in $1.1 billion of free cash flow for the quarter. For the full year 2022, free cash flow reached $6 billion, which is the highest amount Devon has ever delivered in a year and is a powerful example of the financial results our cash return business model can deliver. Turning your attention to Slide 8. With this significant stream of free cash flow, a unique component of our financial strategy is our ability and willingness to accelerate the return of cash to shareholders through our fixed plus variable dividend framework. Under this framework, Devon's dividend payout more than doubled in 2022 to a record high of $5.17 per share. Based on our strong fourth quarter financial performance, we announced a fixed-plus-variable dividend of $0.89 per share that is payable in March and includes the benefit of our 11% raise to the fixed dividend. Another priority for our free cash flow is the execution of our ongoing $2 billion share repurchase program. On Slide 9, you can see that we upsized this buyback authorization twice during the year and we bought back $1.3 billion of stock at prices well below the current market level. Over the past two quarters, our buyback activity has been limited given the large cash outlays associated with our recent acquisitions and our preference to rebuild cash balances to optimize our financial flexibility. As we head into 2023, we expect to be active buyers of our stock, especially if we see trading weakness relative to our peers. On Slide 10, I'd like to give a brief update on our efforts to improve the balance sheet. In the fourth quarter, our cash balances increased by $144 million to total $1.5 billion. With this increased liquidity, Devon exited the quarter with a very healthy net debt-to-EBITDA ratio of only 0.5 turn. Our strong investment-grade financial position provides us the opportunity to return more free cash flow to shareholders and be less aggressive on debt reduction. Moving forward, we'll look to retire debt as it comes due, utilizing our healthy cash balance. Our next debt maturity comes due in August of this year totaling $242 million. We will have additional opportunities to pare down debt with maturities coming due in 2024 and 2025 as well. And finally, I'd like to highlight the excellent return on capital employed we delivered in 2022. As Rick touched on earlier, we achieved a company record 39% return on capital employed during the year. Importantly, even with today's lower commodity price environment, we expect to deliver another fantastic result with return on capital employed projected in excess of 25% based on our provided guidance and current strip pricing. This showcases the durability of our financial model to deliver highly competitive returns through the cycle. With that, I'll now turn the call back to Rick for some closing comments.
Rick Muncrief :
Thank you, Jeff. Great job. To wrap up our prepared remarks today, I want to reinforce that at Devon, we are unwavering in our focus to deliver differentiated results for our stakeholders, including our shareholders and employees. To meet these high standards, it all begins with our commitment to be a financially disciplined company that delivers high returns on invested capital, attractive per share growth and large cash returns to shareholders. To achieve these financial goals, we have carefully assembled a long-duration resource base that has high graded to the very best plays on the U.S. cost curve. This resource depth, coupled with the execution capabilities of our team, position us as a premier energy company that can deliver sustainable results through the cycle. Since the merger announcement in 2020, we have delivered on exactly what we promised to do with this disciplined operating model and I expect more of the same in 2023. While we will be slowed down a bit in the first quarter by an unfortunate outage, the pathway to recover is well defined, communicated and the trajectory of our business will only strengthen as we go through the year. Overall, 2023 is going to be another really good year for Devon. And with that, I will now turn the call back over to Scott for Q&A.
Scott Coody :
Thanks, Rick. We'll now open the call to Q&A. Please limit yourself to one question and a follow up. This allows us to get to more of your questions today on the call. With that, operator, we'll take our first question.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Jeanine Wai from Barclays.
Jeanine Wai :
So I guess maybe if we could start off with the 2023 plan. Just wondering if you could bridge between kind of that annualized Q4 CapEx guide, which would have implied about $3.5 billion to $3.6 billion in CapEx and then the 2023 budget of kind of the $3.6 billion to $3.8 billion. Just wondering if the increase was primarily related to inflation, activity or something else? And if the new level of CapEx is kind of the sustaining number going forward.
Clay Gaspar :
Yes. Thanks, Jeanine. Good question, and happy to talk about it. So yes, we soft guided in the last couple of months, extrapolating our fourth quarter. I think we're very much in line, but it is notably just a touch higher. And so we are continuing to see inflation and I want to define inflation because it's -- as we have conversations at the tip of the spear, I don't sense that we are seeing incremental inflation coming our way. What we have is a maturing of older stale contracts that are coming up to a little bit more kind of current rates. So we experienced some of this in the fourth quarter. We're baking in assumption that we'll see more of this throughout '23. Now some people have wondered on our projection for the second half of '23, do we have any deflation or maybe even an inflection to more inflation in the second half. I would say what we have is a more steady run rate, including just a little bit of incremental inflation, really on the order of maturing our contracts. That may be a little bit on the conservative side. But I think as far as we can see, I think that is kind of what we're experiencing today.
Jeanine Wai :
Okay. Great. Thank you, Clay. I appreciate all that detail. Maybe moving to you, Jeff, we heard your commentary about the buyback slowdown in Q4 for good reason. We thought maybe there could have been some kind of catch-up in the quarter because Q3 was probably impacted by the acquisitions. But can you provide any color on just the pace of the buyback in Q4? And is it reasonable to think that you could finish up the remaining 700 million in authorization, which I know would be big, but you talked about being opportunistic. But is it reasonable to think that maybe you can finish authorization by the end of Q1? Or is it more likely to kind of be done by early May when it expires?
Jeff Ritenour :
Yes, you bet, Jeanine. Thanks for the question. Yes, you're exactly right on the back half of last year as we walked into the acquisitions with the cash outlays there as well as all the noise that you're well aware of related to blackouts during that time period and certainly in the fourth quarter as we we're leading towards year-end, that made it more difficult for us to get into the market. And then frankly, we were just in a position where we wanted to build back our cash balances to maximize our financial flexibility, as I mentioned in our opening comments. Going forward, to answer your question specific to 2023, we do expect to get back into the market in a bigger way. As it relates to our authorization, as you highlight, that authorization kind of wraps up in the second quarter of this year. Of course, just as we did last year, my expectation is we'll have plenty of opportunities to go back to our Board, to reload that authorization to build upon it as we work it forward. And certainly, our expectation here in the first quarter and moving into the second quarter, is it will look more like the pace that you saw from us in the first half of last year as it relates to the buyback and particularly on days like today where we're trading off relative to the group, that's a point in time where you're going to see us be real opportunistic and aggressive getting into the market and buying our shares back.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Nitin Kumar from Mizuho.
Nitin Kumar :
Rick, I want to -- I think we're going to spend a lot of time on capital efficiency today, but I want to start with cash returns, if I may. Some of your peers have talked about maybe steering away from variable dividends and more towards buybacks just because the dividend payout is a bit variable just by this term. Can you talk about why the current mix of the fixed-plus-variable and the opportunistic buybacks is the right cash return strategy for Devon in your view?
Rick Muncrief :
Yes, Nitin, great question. It's one that we've debated here internally, but we always come back to our starting point where we were back in September of 2020 when we announced the merger. And we feel that this framework gives us all types of flexibility. Number one is the fixed dividend is something we've been very proud of. We -- now decades that Devon has delivered on. The variables certainly -- getting 50% of your free cash back to shareholders, and it's a very transparent method of cash return admittedly. Now, what we like about this strategy and this approach is it still gives us opportunity for share repurchases or for debt paydown. If you'll recall, in the first year after the merger, 2021, we actually retired $1.2 billion of debt at some great terms. And so really, really pleased when you look back and certainly that move. So I think for us, we feel that this still is the right framework for us, and so we're going to stick with it and it gives us plenty of opportunities to do the share repurchases. As Jeff just mentioned, certainly, when you see these kind of dislocations from our peer group or our longer-term outlook, we'll certainly contemplate that and we'll be moving on that. So that's no change. That's why we feel very committed to this framework.
Nitin Kumar :
I appreciate that, Rick. And just as my follow-up, some of your basin peers have been talking about new technologies that can help improve recovery factors in the Delaware Basin in the Permian. I'm just curious, you mentioned the test that you're doing or the stuff that you're doing in the Eagle Ford. But anything in the Delaware that you can speak to in terms of improving well productivity or efficiencies?
Rick Muncrief :
Yes. Let me -- I'm going to start it, and I'm going to pivot and let Clay wrap it up. But the reality is that Devon, we have got an unbelievable technical team here. And it's not just in the Delaware. I know we've got some -- some of our competitor companies are talking about some things. We see that as well. But I can assure you we see longer-term opportunities in the back-end and longer-term opportunities in the Eagle Ford as well. So as Clay touched on, you're going to hear more and more of this in the future from us. But we're really excited with what we see. And then I'll just say this. I can't drive on this point hard enough. And that's whether it's the incremental resource assessment we're doing to develop new inventory for the long term for the company or what we can do from a technical perspective, operational perspective to enhance the longevity and the sustainability of our assets. We're all over that. And I'm going to be really excited to -- in the future to be able to talk about it. So Clay, I'll pivot to you.
Clay Gaspar :
Yes, I think, Rick, I think you nailed it. I'll add just a little bit of color. I mean I think this is kind of the brave new frontier as we think about the maturing of resource plays. The land capture, the kind of the easy, relatively easy stuff has been done. And so now we are thinking about, how do we take these overall recovery factors and where there are significant opportunities, how do we eke out that next incremental opportunity. I mentioned a couple, continued on a couple of things we're doing in the Eagle Ford as well as in the Williston. I can tell you, all of those things are extrapolatable to other basins as well. Those happen to be two of our more mature assets, where we truly understand the geology, we understand the development. We have the opportunity to kind of feather in some of these interesting approaches. So there's quite a bit of excitement around that. I would tell you it's a little too early for prime time, but you know that our focus is clearly on that as we think further out into the portfolio.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Scott Gruber from Citigroup.
Scott Gruber :
I want to come back to the comment on inflation that at the tip of the spear, you're seeing a bit less inflation. At this juncture, are you starting to sense that some of the gas directed equipment in the Haynesville is starting to get bid into the Permian. And I know you mentioned your base case is for a bit more inflation over the course of the year. It sounds like mainly on contract role. But is there a case building for deflation in rigs and frac pumps before the end of the year, just given where gas prices at?
Clay Gaspar :
Thanks for the question, Scott. Yes, I would say, as I look at it steady state today, we are at a service cost point that is higher than the current strip. And so what that tells me is, in time, as steady state -- as we get into a little bit more steady state conditions, these two things will come together. Either price will come up or service costs come down to kind of converge. What we're seeing is in the front half of the year, we want to make sure we're really clear on this, is we have things pretty well locked down. And so you'll see a lag towards something that conversions -- potentially in the second half of the year that, again, we will see -- we will benefit from in a lagging way but honestly, with all of the crosswinds in '23, I'm not sure where commodity price is going to go, and therefore, net activity, we've seen a pretty wild swing in gas prices over the last six months, absolutely, that will have impact. These rigs are pretty fungible can move from basin to basin by design. And so if that trend continues, we will absolutely see coming down in service costs, certainly in the Permian. Now again, I want to be real clear, we have not baked that into our capital program. We're assuming very steady, very steady state, kind of single-digit type inflation as we think -- as we turn the page from fourth quarter '22 to '23. Because it's really too early to bake any of that in. We're having some very interesting kind of real-time conversations. I can tell you the tone is vastly different than it was just a couple of months ago, and that's encouraging. But I think it's too early to really bake into our capital forecast.
Scott Gruber :
I appreciate all that color. And then just a quick one on Delaware operational efficiency. It looks like the drills and tills for this year maybe up a handful versus last year, but pretty similar level, but you guys are running a few more rigs versus early last year and you got that fourth frac crew coming in for the first half. Can you just speak to kind of expectations around lateral length and any other factors kind of impacting overall efficiency in the basin, kind of mix impact from wells targeted in the program this year?
Clay Gaspar :
Yes. Thanks for that, Scott. I would say directionally, the lateral length and the working interest when you pan out, are about the same. We may be a little bit longer overall as we started thinking about net spend, you have to think about working interest as well that varies throughout the year. It's probably within the margin of error. When I really look at the efficiency of how quickly we're getting wells down, when you're looking at days, you're looking at hours of pump time on frac crews. Those points of efficiency, I continue to see steady improvement, very encouraging in that regard. And so I would say there is a marginal increase in operational efficiency. Ultimately, what that will yield, as I mentioned a couple of times in my prepared remarks, is essentially the same type well performance, productivity kind of year-over-year. And we're kind of claiming that as a victory, honestly. When you look at the maturation of the overall resource plays and where some of the rest of the industry is, we continue to see kind of flat productivity. Certainly, when you bake in a little bit of inflation, that capital efficiency erodes from a numerator standpoint, not from a denominator. So we're baking all that in, and we're well prepared. But when you really think about where we're at, still the remaining margin is pretty outstanding. We're very optimistic about the net financial results as we project for '23 to be quite an outstanding year.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Neil Mehta from Goldman Sachs.
Neil Mehta :
Rick, first question to you is just on M&A. You talked about the two property acquisitions last year. How do you think about balancing incremental bolt-ons relative to buying back your stock? And what do you think the activity set around M&A could look like in 2023.
Rick Muncrief :
Neil, that's a great question. The foundation for us is really the high bar that we've always had on transactions. And so we'll look at transactions. If it makes sense, we'll compare and contrast that with what you're talking about the share repurchases. And I think what you saw, that's the beauty of our model. We had an earlier question about that. The beauty of our model is we can do a little of all those. And so we paid some great dividends, the share repurchases took place, we were able to pay cash for two very accretive acquisitions, bolt-ons. And so I think that's a winning combination. It really is. Now, I do think that you're going to continue to see consolidation in our space. I think there's consolidation needs to take place, and it's healthy for our industry. And I'm very much in that camp. For us, I can tell you we're going to continue to be disciplined and thoughtful and once again, think about over the long haul. And these be something that can compete. We've got a wonderful portfolio. And so we'll always -- that will always be something we look at as an option.
Neil Mehta :
And a follow-up for the team is just on the outlook for natural gas. You shared your comments around the oil markets. Gas is a lot more uncertain. It does feel like we might need to see a supply response in order to calibrate the market given where inventories are. So just perspective on the gas macro in 2023? And then how is the lower flat price for gas changing the way Devon is approaching its activity program in 2023. Do you see any changes that you need to make on the margin to respond to the margin environment?
Rick Muncrief :
Yes. Neil, I'll start and then I'll have Jeff follow-up, clean up any of my comments. But I think for us, we were on record is going out there a year ago, where we felt like gas actually, some of the commodity price has actually got a little bit ahead of itself. And we're a little surprised it went up quite as fast as it did. I can also say that it's come down a little faster than I thought it would as well. But I think it's driven by two things. Number one, certainly was Freeport with the -- you take 2 Bs a day. There is a cumulative impact of that export capability being lost. And then the second thing is probably in a lot of parts of the country, a little milder winter. Natural gas is still -- we all know this it's still somewhat weather-dependent. It's a lot different than crude oil. And so I think that for us, we're going to continue to stay as oily as we can for as long as we can. I can assure you. We just think that's a winning combination. Obviously, there's some strong gas guys out there, they probably are more appropriate to answer the questions. But Jeff, how are you looking at it longer term?
Jeff Ritenour :
Yes. You bet, Neil. Thanks for the question. And I think I would echo Rick's comments. We continue to believe that longer term, there's going to be increased demand for natural gas out of the U.S. given the LNG projects that are going to be built out. Obviously, as we all know, that's still a couple of years out. And in the meantime, we're going to be susceptible to some volatility depending on what weather does and other dynamics like Freeport that impact the market. As Rick also mentioned, we view ourselves as an oil company and 80%, 90% of our revenues are around oil. So we're more focused there. To your second part of your question, Neil, hasn't changed our game plan for this year or going forward as it relates to activity? The answer is no. Again, most of all of our activity is oil-focused and driven by the prices that we see there and the cost structure. So no big change to our game plan as a result of what we've seen in the natural gas markets.
Rick Muncrief :
One thing I may add is even some are more gassy development actually is here in the Anadarko. But you have to remember that a big part of that is on Meramec. And so that's a lot different kind of project than, I'd say, an Appalachia or a Haynesville-type project. Many of these wells IP 1,500 barrels a day of condensate. So they are high liquid content and that's what drives returns. That's what drives our interest in it.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Doug Leggate from Bank of America.
Doug Leggate :
Well, Jeff, everybody, I guess someone else stole my variable dividend question, so I'll have to go with something else. But anyway, nice to be on the call. Two related questions, guys, if I may. And I guess, Jeff, they both might be for you. A year ago on this call, you talked about an ultra-low breakeven around $30. And in your press release yesterday, you talked about -- presentation rather. You talked about a $40 breakeven. It seems that with the moderate inflation, I guess, expectations, those two numbers don't really seem to align. Can you walk through what's changed about $40, $10 increase in breakeven is what you're trying to communicate?
Jeff Ritenour :
Yes. No, you bet, Doug. So no question, the cost structure, as we've been talking about, has moved higher on a year-over-year basis. We had the benefit for the better part of 2022 given the supply chain work that we did and the great work that the teams did to kind of lock in, kind of firm contracts with term. You're starting to see some of that unwind now as Clay referenced earlier. And so that contract refresh has resulted in the higher cost structure that you're seeing in this year. And so that's really what's driven that breakeven higher. Now there are some other impacts as you're well aware, our cash taxes, we expect to be higher this year as we've utilized the NOLs in 2022. That's been an impact that's driving that cost higher. But far and away, I know everybody is tired of talking about it, I certainly am as well. But it's the inflationary impact that we've seen across, frankly, every cost category and you use the word moderate, I would actually choose a different adjective. When you think about most of these cost categories we've seen anywhere between 30% and 50% kind of inflation, depending on which cost category you're talking about, that's what we're walking into in 2023. And again, I'd like to think we've protected ourselves well and benefited from the other side of that for the bulk of 2022. But certainly, as we refresh contracts in the fourth quarter of last year, walking into the first and second quarter of this year, you're seeing some of that impact, and it's certainly driven that breakeven higher.
Doug Leggate :
I guess I was referencing moderate versus the fourth quarter. But yes, you're quite correct. Thanks, Jeff, for correcting. Well, thanks for the clarification. I guess my follow-up, it might be for you, Jeff, and it might be for Rick, but I'm looking at the free cash flow in the fourth quarter of 2022. And it's basically the same as the free cash flow in the fourth quarter of 2021 with higher oil and gas price. And I guess my question is that with the deferred tax, it looks like that's going to move lower to your point versus the fourth quarter. On a normalized basis, Q4 would probably be lower than a year ago than -- if the deferred tax moves per your guidance. So I guess my question is, I don't want to say free cash flow has peaked but it kind of feels like outside of a commodity call, it kind of has. And so when you think about creating value in an inflationary environment, how do you expand free cash flow outside there, I say, of something like an acquisition. What do you do to drive value accretion, which is ultimately a function of free cash flow expansion? I'll leave it there.
Jeff Ritenour :
Yes. I appreciate the question. You're spot on. I mean, that's why our focus here internally, and Clay referenced this in his comments earlier, is around the focus on that cost structure, the productivity and the efficiency of the wells that we're drilling. That's the piece that we can control, right? Obviously, we don't have a lot of help on the revenue side. You're certainly correct to the extent that commodity prices go higher, which we frankly expect that to happen given what we've seen in the market. That certainly would be incremental free cash flow to us but we can't count on that. And so what we're focused on as a company internally is around our cost structure and being more efficient every day in the field, in the office on the things that we can control. And so the good news, as Clay referenced, is we're continuing to see improvement on that front. We're continuing to squeeze white space out of the Gantt chart and on a day-to-day on each of our projects, but it's got to be focused around cost structure because that's what we can control and that's how we can drive greater margins relative to the inflationary environment we're seeing today.
Doug Leggate :
I appreciate the answer, Jeff. I guess I was thinking about taking out someone else's cost because you have got a strong track record of M&A, but I'll leave it there.
Jeff Ritenour :
Yes. Well, Doug, I'll just add on, and again, just to echo Rick's comments earlier, we continue to be believers that consolidation is going to happen in the space, and that certainly is going to be a driver of that. We feel like we're well positioned to take advantage of those opportunities. But as you've seen from us in the past, we've got a really high bar as it relates to what we would bring into the portfolio and to how it would compete with the assets that we've got. But again, we can't -- that's hard to control as well the timing and the nature of those transactions. So we got to stay focused on what we can control, which is the work we're doing day to day.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Paul Cheng from Scotiabank.
Paul Cheng :
Two questions, please. In your press release, it seems like in the fourth quarter, the lateral length for the well tied in is about 17% lower than the third quarter. Is that a structural reason? Or it just so happened that for other reasons that, that end up to be every single basin, your lateral length is lower? And also maybe Clay, in your press release, you also said there's a negative 55 million barrel of oil -- negative reserve adjustment or revision. What's the -- what area related to that, what's causing the negative revision there? And then a second question is that do you have a net debt medium to longer-term target? I know just mentioning that you're going to pay down the debt based on the maturity, but is there a gross net or net debt target you have in my say, what would be a par pay for the company longer term?
Clay Gaspar :
Paul, it's Clay. I'm going to jump in on the reserves question, and then I'll let Jeff handle the debt question. So one, I appreciate the question. I'm really -- I want to stress this very importantly. We are super confident in our reserves booking process, the quality of our reserves. This is one of the hidden benefits actually from our merger. WPX had one auditor. Devon had another. We've actually brought in a third party to look at both sets of books and just take a brand-new refresh this year, which has been a great process and inevitably, there's gives and takes, but -- and we just -- we were very, very much in line with this world-class new look, fresh auditor. The nature of reserves in general is that we -- there's no strong incentive to overbook. There's lots of incentives to -- there's a strong disincentive to overbook. And so we want to make sure that we have a conservative outlook as designed by the SEC. I think that the general phrase is much more likely to go up and down. But sometimes you have -- with a five-year rule, there's things that move around. And so specifically to the oil question, you hinted at there was some movement in the rig dedications and the rig focus from some of the Texas assets in Delaware to a little bit more New Mexico focus. And that caused some of those wells to fall off in the five-year rule. And so they fall off one category. Obviously, they can come on in other parts of the additions as well. And so that tends to balance. But when you look at the overall quality of the reserves year after year, there's lots of really important hints to look at, finding in development cost as a run rate. If you think about PUD percentage booking, you think about PUD conversion percentage, there's a lot of things that are kind of very important to look at. When you watch all of those, Devon is in a very, very strong position. We feel very confident about our reserves. There's one other piece and a nuance of the reserves booking that's very important. When you -- first thing you do is you're looking at price revisions. So you make a change on price. The second thing you start looking at are things like cost structure and all of that. And in our case, in everyone's case, but in our case, in particular, our LOE ticked up year-over-year, and that falls into a reserves, a non-price-related revision. And so it's in that bucket. It's really as a result of higher inflation due to prices, but it doesn't quite fit into that to that price revision category. So there's some interesting nuances. I just want to emphasize the confidence that I have personally and the team has in our reserves process. I'll hand it to Jeff and let him talk that.
Paul Cheng :
Before, Jeff, can you also talk -- comment about the lateral length in the fourth quarter that is about 17% lower shorter than the third quarter. Is there any structural reason or it's just a one-off because of other reasons?
Scott Coody :
Paul, this is Scott. I'll jump in real quick and then pass it over to Jeff for the debt question. But the key driver of the shorter lateral length is largely the incorporation of Validus. You brought online in the Eagle Ford, you brought online about 30 wells in Eagle Ford. So that by nature of the drilling configuration there, they're shorter laterals but overall, if you exclude that impact, largely, everything else was close to a 2-mile ladder, which is in line of our previous trends. So that's going to be the big variance there and probably all things equal. You should see that kind of weighting be very similar going forward given the capital plan that we have planned for 2023. Jeffrey?
Jeff Ritenour :
Yes, Paul, I think your last question was around our net debt to EBITDA and any targets that we have related to that. What we've talked about historically internally and externally was kind of a 1x net debt-to-EBITDA target. As you heard in my opening comments, we're well below that today. And we're very comfortable, frankly, with our overall leverage position. As we highlighted in the materials, we've got a strong investment grade credit rating. We have really positive conversations as it relates to the rating agencies. And frankly, just given the strength of our -- the core of our business, we feel really good about where we are. And as I mentioned in my opening comments, that allows us to be less aggressive trying to take down the absolute debt level. We feel really good with the maturities coming due here over the next, call it, two to three years, our expectation is we'll just take those out as they mature and wouldn't expect us to step up any incremental debt reduction in addition to that. Now certainly, should market conditions change or something else come to light that might change our point of view, we would adapt and be flexible given the cash balance that we have and the free cash flow we expect to generate and I'll just reiterate something Rick mentioned earlier, which is that's one of the beauties of our financial model is it provides us a lot of balance to do multiple things, whether it's debt reduction, variable dividend, stock buybacks are certainly even evaluate some cash transactions. So we feel really good where we are on the leverage, and we'll expect to just take those maturities as they come due over the next couple of years.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Neal Dingmann from Truist.
Neal Dingmann :
My first question just on the reinvestment rate, specifically. It looks like I'm showing that the rate maybe has increased to potentially this year, a bit over 40% versus 31% last year. I'm just wondering how do you anticipate this trending? And is this just largely driven the higher reinvestment rate because of cost? Or are there other factors we should think about when sort of determining what this reinvestment rate is going to continue to trend towards.
Jeff Ritenour :
Yes, Neal, this is Jeff. Yes, I think if you're speaking to our overall reinvestment rate at a corporate level, that's exactly right. It's just the math and the function of higher costs as a result of the inflation that we've seen and then the lower commodity prices, which we all know have been -- well, certainly on natural gas have been dramatic, but more so important to us is on oil and certainly on a year-over-year basis, the strip would suggest a lower oil price for this year as it relates to last. And so that math just works out to be a higher reinvestment ratio.
Neal Dingmann :
Okay. Okay. And then just secondly, Clay, maybe for you just on -- you touched on this a little bit. Just on the infrastructure, you mentioned in the prepared remarks on the compressor and third-party. I think you mentioned that you expect this to be back to normal next quarter. Were there, I guess, proprietary changes? Or were there new contracts or anything you've done to help mitigate this going forward to give you more confidence in less on this happening going forward?
Clay Gaspar :
I'd say it's a little too early to kind of really digest all of the lessons learned. The team -- this is really days, maybe a couple of weeks old. We're -- team want to make sure, first of all, there was no one injured. There's no one on location. So that worked very much in our favor. We want to understand the impact to see if there was anything immediate that we had to address on any other compressor facilities with similar designs. We didn't see anything in that regard. The teams are now doing deep investigation in parallel to the real-time fixing. And what I would say is, so far, there's no glaring issues. There's a lot of mechanical parts, a lot of moving pieces. We will learn some things. We will apply some learnings. But I don't think there's anything that really stood out right off the bat that we thought we could improve in the offset operations.
Neal Dingmann :
But you do expect that literally normal play by second quarter, you said?
Clay Gaspar :
Yes. I would say middle of March, we should have production fully up and running again about that time. And so it shouldn't bleed into the second quarter. I feel really good about that.
Scott Coody :
Well, I see we're at the top of the hour. I appreciate everyone's interest in Devon today. And if you have any further questions, please don't hesitate to reach out to the Investor Relations team at any time. Thank you, and have a good day.
Operator:
This concludes today's call. Thank you for joining. You may now disconnect your lines.
Operator:
Welcome to Devon Energy’s Third Quarter Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. This call is being recorded. I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Scott Coody, Vice President of Investor Relations. Sir, you may begin.
Scott Coody:
Good morning. And thank you to everyone for joining us on the call today. Last night we issued an earnings release and presentation that cover our results for the quarter and updated outlook. Throughout the call today, we will make references to the earnings presentation to support prepared remarks, and these slides can be found on our website. Also joining me on the call today are Rick Muncrief, our President and CEO; Clay Gaspar, our Chief Operating Officer; Jeff Ritenour, our Chief Financial Officer; and a few other members of our senior management team. Comments today will include plans, forecasts and estimates that are forward-looking statements under U.S. securities law. These comments are subject to assumptions, risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ from our forward-looking statements. Please take note of the cautionary language and risk factors provided in our SEC filings and earnings materials. With that, I’ll turn the call over to Rick.
Rick Muncrief:
Thank you, Scott. It’s great to be here this morning, and we appreciate everyone taking the time to join us today. For Devon, the third quarter was another high-quality performance that demonstrated the flexibility of our strategy to create value in multiple ways. The team’s disciplined execution of our operating plan advanced earnings and cash flow by healthy double-digit rates on a year-over-year basis. Free cash flow was bouldered by capital efficiencies and effective supply chain management that drove capital spending below forecast. We rewarded shareholders with cash returns in the form of both dividends and buybacks that increased by nearly double over the past year. And we strengthened our asset portfolio by closing on two highly accretive bolt-on transactions that add to our ability to deliver sustainable long-term results, all in all, another great quarter of executing on our disciplined strategy. For my remaining comments today, I want to focus on the strategic moves we’ve taken recently to improve our business and the positive impact these actions have on our fourth quarter and our 2023 outlook. Turning to slide 4, we have worked hard through the years to assemble an asset portfolio that resides in the very best positioned plays on the U.S. cost curve. Being a low-cost producer with quality inventory is critical to our long-term success. And over the past few months, we’ve taken steps to opportunistically improve our asset portfolio. These bolt-on acquisitions were underpinned by exceptionally strong industrial logic that advanced both the financial and operational tenets of our strategic plan. First and foremost, from a financial perspective, the transactions represent a value-oriented consolidation of resource in the economic core of these respective basins, resulting in immediate financial accretion. The acquired assets were funded entirely from cash on hand and purchased at levels as low as 2 times cash flow and possess free cash flow yields ranging up to 30% at strip pricing. Furthermore, the addition of this incremental wedge of free cash flow also allows us to accelerate the return of cash to our shareholders through higher dividends and positions us to further compound per share growth through our ongoing stock buyback program. From an operation standpoint, these transactions fit like a glove within our existing asset portfolio and provide us improved economies of scale in the core of these respective plays. The direct adjacency of the acquired acreage also offers strong operational synergies and provides a meaningful runway of high-quality inventory that immediately competes for capital within our portfolio. Importantly, this resource capture allows us to sustain a high-margin production from these assets for many years to come and does not require us to accelerate drilling activity across other parts of the portfolio to maintain our overall productive capacity. Altogether, I could not be more pleased with these tuck-in acquisitions as they successfully demonstrate another pathway that our business can create immediate value for shareholders. However, I do want to be clear that deals such as these that check every box are exceptionally rare. We will always look for smart ways to strengthen our portfolio, but you should be confident in our disciplined approach that focuses on quality assets, adjacency to our operations and immediate per share accretion. On slide 5, in addition to enhancing our asset portfolio, we have also taken important steps to maximize realized pricing for our products. With our marketing strategy, we are focused on securing multiple low-cost transportation options in each basin we operate, with balanced exposure to domestic and international markets. By controlling firm capacity from the wellhead to the key demand centers, we’ve been able to steadily improve our price realization over the past few years. This progress is evidenced by the record oil realization we achieved in the third quarter that reached 101% of the WTI benchmark. A key contributor to the strong performance was the 20% equity interest in Penn Oak’s oil export terminal that we’ve accumulated over the past year. This investment in Penn Oak provides us 90,000 barrels per day of export capacity in Corpus Christi, offering valuable access to premium Brent-linked pricing that led to an uplift of more than $3 per barrel on these exports. We’ve also taken steps to secure additional pricing diversification for our natural gas portfolio by recently entering an LNG export partnership with Delfin Midstream. Once again, this arrangement will provide us with 150,000 MMBtu per day of direct exposure to international gas pricing, such as the lucrative TTF or JKM markets. However, I want to be clear, this is a capital-light approach to attain LNG exposure and our investment in Delfin, which is spread over this year and next, is very minor and will have a negligible impact to our capital outlook. A final investment decision for Delfin’s floating LNG vessel is expected to be made in the coming months, and we anticipate the facility will be operational within four years of this decision. Now turning to slide 7, with the positive tailwinds that come from our accretive bolt-on acquisitions, Devon’s upcoming fourth quarter is set to be a strong one. As you can see on the left, we are planning on delivering a high-single-digit growth rate in production per share. Capital will be higher in the fourth quarter, but our disciplined reinvestment rates remains at very low levels. Approximately two-thirds of the increased capital spending compared to the previous quarter is driven by our recent bolt-on acquisitions. The remaining third of the increase is a combination of higher service costs as contracts refresh, a bit more operated activity than previously planned helps our operational flexibility as we head into 2023. And we have seen an uptick in non-operated activity. Overall, it will be another great quarter for us as we expect to deliver free cash flow growth of more than 25% on a year-over-year basis. At today’s pricing, this outlook translates into a compelling free cash flow yield of 11% or nearly 3 times what the S&P 500 index offers investors. With this excess cash flow, there is no change to our cash return playbook, it will be more of the same. As you can see on slides 9 and 10, we will continue to accelerate the return of capital to shareholders through our market-leading dividend, which is one of the top yielding equities in the S&P 500 and we remain active buyers of our stock when the market presents us opportunities. This operational and financial momentum will also carry into 2023. I will hold off on detailed line item guidance today since we’re still integrating the recent acquisitions of RimRock and Validus into our capital allocation process. However, I can confidently say that our Delaware asset will continue to be the focal point of our capital program, and we’re focused on designing a plan with consistent activity levels that delivers the right balance between returns, capital efficiencies and free cash flow. With the benefit of acquisitions, we do expect to grow production in 2023. However, compared to fourth quarter exit rates, our volumes in the upcoming year are likely to be in the bottom half of our targeted growth range of 0% to 5%. The capital activity levels required to sustain production at these levels will be similar to the program we’re deploying in the fourth quarter of this year. Although we could pull back on less efficient rigs when considering the incremental activity we’ve recently added in the Delaware, we still expect to experience some additional upward pressure on costs as contracts refresh, especially in the second half of the year, but price discovery is still ongoing and very sensitive to industry activity levels and commodity pricing. We will provide official guidance in February, but I’m confident that 2023 is going to be another great year for Devon as we are well positioned to generate substantial free cash flow and execute on all facets of our cash return model. With that, I will now turn the call over to Clay to cover our operational highlights.
Clay Gaspar:
Thank you, Rick, and good morning, everyone. Devon’s consistent quarterly performance exemplifies the importance of balancing three things
Jeff Ritenour:
Thanks, Clay. I’d like to spend my time today discussing the highlights of our financial performance for the quarter and the capital allocation priorities for our free cash flow. A good place to start is on slide 6 with a review of Devon’s financial performance, where earnings and cash flow per share growth rapidly expanded year-over-year and exceeded consensus expectations. Operating cash flow for the third quarter totaled $2.1 billion, an impressive increase of 32% compared to the third quarter of last year. This level of cash flow generation comfortably funded our capital spending requirements and resulted in $1.5 billion of free cash flow in the quarter. As you can see on the chart to the right, this strong result keeps us on track to generate a record-setting amount of free cash flow this year and is a powerful example of the financial results our disciplined cash return business model can deliver. With the free cash flow Devon generated this quarter, our top priority is to reward shareholders with higher cash returns through our fixed plus variable dividend framework. This dividend strategy is foundational to our capital allocation process, providing us the flexibility to return cash to shareholders across a variety of market conditions. Under this framework, we pay a fixed dividend every quarter and evaluate a variable distribution of up to 50% of the remaining free cash flow. Based on our strong third quarter financial results, the Board approved a 61% increase in our dividend payout per year-over-year to $1.35 per share. On slide 9, you can see that our large dividend translates into a very compelling yield compared to other segments of the broader market. In fact, at today’s pricing, our yield is substantially higher than the average company in the S&P 500 Index. Another priority for our free cash flow is the execution of our ongoing $2 billion share repurchase program. On slide 10, you can see that over the past year, we bought back $1.3 billion of stock, which has reduced our outstanding share count by 4%. This equates to an average price of $50 per share, which is more than a 30% discount to our current trading levels. Over the past several months, our buyback activity has been somewhat limited due to our recent bolt-on acquisitions in the Williston and Eagle Ford. However, with those transactions now closed and with around $700 million remaining on our authorization, we can be more active buyers of our stock when the market opportunities present themselves. And to round out my prepared remarks this morning, I’d like to give a brief update on our investment-grade financial position. After funding $2.5 billion of acquisitions from cash on hand during the quarter, we exited September with a healthy cash balance of $1.3 billion and low leverage with net debt-to-EBITDA ratio of around 0.5 a turn. Even with this strong financial position, we’re not done making improvements, and we’ll continue to evaluate opportunities within our debt stack to create additional value for shareholders. With that, I’ll turn the call back to Rick for some closing comments.
Rick Muncrief:
Thank you, Jeff. Great job. We have covered a lot of good information today, but I would like to close with this key message, and that is that the team here at Devon is delivering on exactly what we promised to do. This is so foundational to our strategy. Our consistency has developed a strong trust for our brand with internal and external stakeholders. We’ve prioritized building a can-do culture and taking care of our people, including the contractors who work for us. We’ve prioritized for share value creation over the pursuit of volumes. And we have rewarded shareholders with market-leading cash returns. We’ve also demonstrated time and again our technical capabilities and operational expertise against all -- across all five of our operating areas by consistently delivering top-tier well productivity and capital efficiencies. Furthermore, I believe we’ve continued to lead and differentiate from peers by establishing a logical, accretive track record of consolidation. The resource assessment successes that Clay referred to with our Lower Wolfcamp in the Delaware Basin and the Niobrara and the Powder River Basin are establishing new sources of supply and inventory. We look forward to sharing additional resource assessment successes in the future. Finally, we’ve continued to take important steps to enhance our business through our marketing and infrastructure strategies that have positioned us to achieve very attractive price realizations across the portfolio and stay ahead of any regional bottlenecks. Overall, it’s been another great year for us, but the best is yet to come for Devon. We are focused on closing out the year with strength and are preparing to build upon this positive momentum into 2023. I will now turn the call back over to Scott for Q&A. Scott?
Scott Coody:
Thanks, Rick. We’ll now open the call to Q&A. Please limit yourself to one question and a follow-up. This allows us to get to more questions on the call today. With that, operator, we’ll take our first question.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Arun Jayaram with JP Morgan.
Arun Jayaram:
Yes. Good morning. Rick, I wanted to start, you provided some, call it, soft guidance commentary for 2023. I respect the fact that you’re still in your capital budgeting process. But let’s go back to your prepared comments. You mentioned that you expected targeted growth to be at the low end of the 0% to 5% range from the 4Q exit rate. When we think about the 4Q exit rate, is that basically the 4Q guide of 650,000 BOE per day at the midpoint and 322.5 for oil? Just trying to get your definition of the exit rate?
Rick Muncrief:
You bet, Arun. That’s spot on. That’s exactly what we’re saying. That’s correct. That’s the assumption you should make. You bet.
Arun Jayaram:
Great. Okay. My second question for you, Rick, is to get your thoughts on what you think is the appropriate development scheme for shale in above mid-cycle conditions. We get a lot of questions from this from the buy side. But one of your peers has decided to high-grade their 2023 program to develop, call it, higher return locations starting next year. In the broader context of the fact that shale inventories are finite in nature, do you think it makes sense for Devon today to tailor your development programs on maximizing IRRs or NPV per section? I’d love to get your thoughts on that idea.
Rick Muncrief:
Yes. That’s a good question. For us, I think the plan that we’ve been implementing over, I’d say, the last 18 months is about what you ought to expect from us in the future. We may have some minor tweaks, Arun, but we feel really good. When you’re a multi-basin operator as we talked earlier, we’re still doing in a couple of our basins, quite a bit of resource assessment, testing new zones, new intervals, things like that. We’ll continue to do that. But as far as the operating scheme, I don’t know that you’ll see a lot of change from what we’ve been employing over the last couple of years. Clay, you want to add anything to that?
Clay Gaspar:
Yes. Rick, I think you nailed it with balancing IRR and NPV is an important consideration. And of course, you have all the practical realities of we got to make sure we have take away. We want to make sure we’re doing the right thing from an ESG perspective. We’re thinking about assessing future potential. Those always don’t necessarily command the highest risk rate of return today, but it’s incredibly important as we think about not just this quarter’s return or year’s return, three-year, five-year, ten-year returns as well.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Neil Mehta with Goldman Sachs.
Neil Mehta:
Yes. Good morning, team. Rick, I wanted to get your perspective on these opportunistic bolt-ons. We’ve had Validus Energy and RimRock and as you said, you acquired them at very attractive multiples. What is the opportunity set that you see around similar type of acquisitions? And can this become a core part of your go-forward business model rolling up assets and arbitraging the multiple?
Rick Muncrief:
Neil, that’s another good question. From our perspective, I think you’ve heard us be very consistent with our messaging that we will always be opportunistic on transactions that could strengthen our company. We want to make sure that we do deliver the accretion. We’re not waving arms, but we -- actually, it shows up in our income statement over time. And to the point that you made, if it could deepen some inventory, that really is very critical. We’re going to continue holding consolidation, I think, an important part of our overall strategy. That being said, as I mentioned in our prepared remarks, you don’t always find those deals that check every box, and we’re not going to overpay. We’re going to be very-disciplined. And these two transactions work quite well for us. And there could be others in the future, but we’ll wait to see. But we’re certainly proud of what we’ve done and have to give a tip of the hat to our team that brought these over the fence, and they’re great transactions and help us in a lot of ways.
Neil Mehta:
And the follow-up is just on capital spending. It’s been the focus of investor conversations this morning. You talked a little bit about it in the prepared remarks, but can you once again bridge between old and new guidance for 2022 spend. And just how we should think about how much of this bleeds into the way we should think about ‘23 as well? Thank you.
Rick Muncrief:
Yes. I think I’m going to ask Clay to go into maybe some of the detail. But just as I said in our remarks, two-thirds of the increase of capital spending are a direct impact of these acquisitions where you had ongoing rig activity. We had two rigs running down the Eagle Ford on the Validus deal and a rig running in the Bakken on RimRock. So, it comes with capital spend. And so, that’s a big part of it. And I think we broke it down into three other areas for that other third. But Clay, you may want to just share your perspective as well on the increase.
Clay Gaspar:
Yes, Rick. First of all, look, there is inflation out there. We’ve never been hiding from inflation. It’s real. As we renew contracts, we see that continue to tick up. I think we’re starting to see a crest in that as I look to see not necessarily significant rollover, but certainly kind of a crusting, maybe some green shoots and softening here and there. We will continue to monitor that. I think it’s too early to say how that manifests over the course of 2023. But that’s the first piece of it. The second is we actually took some opportunity to step up a little bit of activity, get a running start on ‘23. You’ll see that in -- really in the November, December new wells spud. That spud count will come up a little bit. And then also as we start to look at kind of across the fence and our partners, the non-op activity, has stepped up as well. So, when you break it down with the two-thirds being from the acquisition activity, the remaining piece kind of divided roughly in thirds that way. I think it’s -- I think we feel pretty good about where we’re at and for the trajectory for ‘23 as well.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Doug Leggate with Bank of America.
Doug Leggate:
Guys, I wonder if I could go to Clay first and then to Jeff. Thanks. Clay, your comments about testing wider spacing, I guess, in the Mid-Con. I’m looking at slide 18. And to get from the 12-year inventory to the 20-year inventory, one of the comments under there is appraisal and tighter spacing. So I wonder if you can reconcile what does upspacing mean for your confidence in that increased longer term inventory guidance.
Clay Gaspar:
Yes. Doug, thanks for the opportunity to clarify that. So the upspacing is really relative to, I think, the dark years of the STACK where the industry really down-spaced too much, took for granted the amount of well-to-well interference or maybe isolation and frankly, just over-drilled. I think where we’re at today, we’re seeing phenomenal returns. But as you know, everything changes on a real-time basis, commodity price yields, well costs, realizations. And that constant mix is something we’re evaluating is 3 or 4 or 5 the right spacing specific to Mid-Con. But I think in the broader sense, as we look kind of across the basin and then you move from a midpoint of a $65 price deck to, I believe, we assumed an $85 on the larger account, you also have to reconsider how does that work in other areas. Powder River that is really yet to be defined on how -- what kind of spacing we’re doing. And even some of the deeper potential in the Delaware Basin certainly has significant upside depending on which commodity price you run. And that’s where that really that spot to the -- on the -- the bar on the right really comes in. One additional note on the -- in the Mid-Con area, there’s a lot of running room with gas. And I think that, of course, is a very important consideration as we start thinking about what price deck do you run, what realizations do we have and ultimately, what’s the right economic approach to extract the most opportune value.
Doug Leggate:
Sorry. Clay, just to be clear, did you say $85 oil for the 10,000 locations?
Clay Gaspar:
Yes. Is it a little higher than that, Scott?
Scott Coody:
Yes. It’s in that neighborhood, Doug. So we did -- for the unrisked we did have a higher price point that’s more reflective of maybe current spot pricing, just have a regulator on the unrest as well. But -- and also we did take some of the risking off with regards to some of the appraisal that needs to be successful to make that column convert into our risked category over time.
Doug Leggate:
My follow-up is hopefully a quick one for Jeff. And it goes back to the comment that Rick made about free cash flow in the fourth quarter over 2021. Jeff, you still have about -- looks about an 80% deferred cash tax in that free cash flow number for the third quarter, $1.5 billion. When can we expect to see a more normalized cash tax going forward, and I’ll leave it there. Thanks.
Jeff Ritenour:
Yes, Doug, thanks for the question. We -- as you saw here in the third quarter, we adjusted our expectation for the full year cash tax level. We have been guiding most of the year around a 10% cash tax burden, and we now think that’s going to be closer to 8%. The real big driver for us this year is we’re having the benefit of some tax attributes, the bulk of which are NOLs. As we move forward into next year, we’ll carry forward about $1 billion of NOLs that we’ll be able to utilize kind of over a multiyear period. So that will help keep our tax liabilities in check as we move forward. But as we’ve talked about before, our expectation for next year, if you assume kind of the current commodity price levels and cost structure, you’re going to be hovering around that kind of 15% current tax level, and that would be our expectation as we move throughout next year.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Jeanine Wai with Barclays.
Jeanine Wai:
My first question -- actually, both are maybe for Clay here. Sticking with inventory, we again appreciate all the details on slide 18. On the Delaware, can you provide a little bit more color on that? It looks like for the over 4,500 risked locations, about 55% of those are in the Delaware. And so our question is kind of what’s the mix of zones within that estimate? And in particular, how much of those 55% of locations would you consider to be Tier 1 kind of Wolfcamp A, XY?
Clay Gaspar:
Thanks, Jeanine. Yes. And you’re referring to slide 18, the bar kind of there in the middle, a total of greater than 4,500 locations. Yes, you got a keen eye, a little more than half of that is in the Delaware. As I think about that kind of light gray box and break that down, by far, most of that is Wolfcamp and Bone Spring, which is, as you know, kind of the really good stuff that we’ve been going after. Certainly, a smaller portion is some Avalon and some deeper other potential, but it’s by far, mostly Bone Spring and Wolfcamp.
Jeanine Wai:
Okay. Great. And then, maybe sticking on ops here on base declines. So in 2Q, the Delaware total in oil production, it grew significantly. I think it was like 22% year-over-year in 2Q and 16% on oil. In Q3, the year-over-year growth, it slowed and oil, I think, was down like 3,000 a day versus 3Q of last year. So just maybe smashing everything together, we’ve got flattish oil expected in 4Q in the Delaware. Can you provide an update on what you think the oil-based decline will be for the Delaware going forward? And then maybe for the overall company as you put in the Bakken and Eagle Ford deals?
Clay Gaspar:
Yes. Thanks, Jeanine. Yes, you’re right. And as we compare quarter-to-quarter, obviously, there’s two ends of that, last year’s quarter to this year’s quarter, and boy, can really get a little bit lumpy. So I think you’re thinking about it right, scaling up, maybe thinking about year-over-year trajectories. And so yes, we will continue to see some nice growth. We said 11% year-to-date on the slide. For the base decline, I would say it’s roughly 30% to 35%, probably closer to 30%. As we continue to moderate the growth, these numbers come down, and that’s a benefit of this -- of the business model that we have. We’ll continue to see that mitigate over time and therefore, making this, keeping our production flat more capitally efficient.
Jeanine Wai:
Is that 30% to 35% in the Delaware, or was that for the overall company?
Clay Gaspar:
Yes, coincidentally, really both. But yes, for both.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Paul Cheng with Scotiabank.
Paul Cheng:
Two questions, please. The first one is for Jeff and the second one is for Clay. For Jeff, in your presentation, you have an interesting comment saying that the management and effort and the streamlining effort have led to a higher unit DD&A. Can you elaborate about what extent you guys are doing and that could lead to higher unit DD&A? And also what is the benefit that you expect from those efforts? I mean, what were you talking about here? And second point is on the recent bolt-on acquisition in Eagle Ford, is that in any shape or form will impact how you’re going to look at your JV with BP in the area that the -- whether it’s the focus or attention for the companies. I mean, how -- is there any shape or form that is going to have any impact?
Jeff Ritenour:
Hey Paul, this is Jeff. Yes, happy to address your question on DD&A. It’s a little bit of the nuance of successful efforts accounting, and you’re probably aware, we have different common operating fields or cost centers, if you will, kind of across the company as to align with how we kind of manage the operations. Post the merger that we did with WPX, we actually kept our Delaware South and North assets separate. So, New Mexico to the north, obviously and Texas to the South. Here, over the last couple of quarters, we decided to consolidate that all into one cost center. And so, as a result, you have spread that cost of those units across the entirety of that new business unit or a call center, if you will. And so as a result, you have a slight increase in the DD&A rate going forward to the overall company as a result of kind of streamlining that effort driven by the consolidation of those two call centers.
Clay Gaspar:
Paul, this is Clay. I’ll pick up on the second question.
Paul Cheng:
Is there any...
Clay Gaspar:
Sorry, go ahead. Sorry, Paul, go ahead.
Paul Cheng:
Yes. Can I just ask that, Jeff, is that resulting in any cash savings going forward with this consolidation or streamline?
Jeff Ritenour:
Absolutely. I mean, the work that we’ve done around integration post-merger continues. So, we’re always looking for ways to continue to make the asset base better and how we manage those assets going forward. So certainly, this was a component of our -- of the execution of that integration, and we certainly would expect to see some synergies, albeit minor in the grand scheme of things today, but we’re certainly -- part of our thought process as we rolled out the synergies we talked about post merger.
Clay Gaspar:
Paul, I’ll take the second question. So, our joint venture with BP is really a separate discussion. Now clearly, as we scale up our activities, we will bring our learnings, that economy of scale to BP as the drilling and completions operator and then vice versa. We’re also bringing knowledge to the Validus assets. Also remember, as part of the JV, Devon operates the joint venture wells. So there’s definitely economies of scale in our operations, some of the technologies that we use, some of the efficiencies around the people, being able to cover essentially more with less. That’s always very good as you scale up these opportunities. I think one of my favorite tests to do is as you look at one of these deals is just glance at the map. And if it makes sense from an industrial logic standpoint, you know that there is some real efficiencies to be gained, and we’re certainly going after those right now.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Scott Gruber with Citigroup.
Scott Gruber:
So on the Validus acquisition in the Eagle Ford, you identified about 500 in locations, which looks to double your total in the basin, as I squinted that inventory STACK bar chart. Are all these new drill locations, or do these figures include refrac opportunities? And if refrac is not included, how good could the refrac opportunity be?
Clay Gaspar:
Yes. So, this is only the drilling opportunities, but we have additional refracs as well. They’re a little hard to quantify. We’re working on that now. We have some internal numbers around the refracs. And I can tell you, it’s more than just where does it work from a reservoir standpoint. It’s also where does it work from a well construction standpoint. You have to be able to reenter these wells for an economic -- economically and be able to restimulate and really stimulate new rock is the key to success there.
Scott Gruber:
And as you study the opportunity set, how would you describe the economics of refrac today? And how would you think about layering them in over the next couple of years?
Clay Gaspar:
Yes. I would say, we’re still in the early stages of really rolling that into our portfolio. I would say it’s still in the assessment bucket that I referenced early It could be very meaningful, not just in Eagle Ford, but maybe in other areas as well. And so the quantity that we’ve done this year, and I expect for next year, is relatively small. As I’ve mentioned, it’s finding the right recipe. What was the original stimulation in that well? What was the stimulations in the offset well? What’s the spacing to the offset wells? What’s the casing construction of that well? And does it lend itself to the right recipe so that we can reenter, properly stimulate, hopefully, charge that new rock and, therefore, really get the bang for the buck. What I can tell you, the early results are we’re very encouraged. I think we’re finding the right recipe, but it’s too early to really lean in too hard just yet.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Neal Dingmann with Truist.
Neal Dingmann:
My first question is on your Delaware transportation specifically. Could you all speak to the continued Delaware takeaway? And then also how you all are protected from the Waha price volatility that we’ve even seen recently?
Jeff Ritenour:
Yes. You bet. Neal, this is Jeff. We feel really good, frankly, about our ability to move the molecules. You’ve heard us talk about this in the past, and we’ve had these dislocations in pricing in Waha over the last couple of years, and the team has done a great job of kind of protecting us from that exposure. As a big picture, we move, call it, north of 50%, almost 60% of our volumes are gas molecules out of the basin to the Gulf Coast. And so those volumes actually have exposure to Houston Ship Channel pricing. With the remainder of molecules that sit in basin, we’ve hedged almost all of that. And so, the remainder of volumes that are specifically exposed to Waha is about 10% of our gas molecules in basin. So, when you put that all together, just to give you some context and somebody will correct me on the math here, but I don’t have it quite right. But it’s less than 1% of our revenues as a total company are exposed to Waha at this point given the lengths that we’ve gone to, number one, move the molecules out of basin and then number two, hedge our exposure there.
Neal Dingmann:
Great answers. And then my second question is on your natural gas plant, specifically. Could you all give us some more color maybe on that Delfin LNG partnership, how you might see this advancing and then other potential similar, I’d call, nonbinding type agreements or opportunities going forward?
Jeff Ritenour:
Yes, you bet. No, we’re excited about the opportunity with Delfin. We’re a little light on details at this point because we’re still in the process of negotiating some of the commercial terms there and how all that shakes out. But generally speaking, it’s really just an extension of our broader marketing philosophy and thought process, which is we’re always trying to capture the highest realized price wherever we can for our molecules, while at the same time, kind of balancing our exposure to the different markets that we’re involved in. And so, as we look forward over the next 5 and 10 years, we really expect the growth in demand for natural gas to come outside of the United States. And so, for us, it makes sense to have exposure to the water and to those international markets. And so, we’re excited that we could take a step forward with Delfin, make a relatively minor investment with them, which is going to provide us some access to those international markets going forward. I’ll remind everybody that those projects, we don’t expect to come on line until the kind of the 2026 time frame, but we’re excited to kind of work things forward with that group and then hopefully get us exposure to the premium markets that we’re seeing internationally.
Operator:
Our next question comes from John Freeman with Raymond James.
John Freeman:
Thank you. Yes. My first question is a little bit of a follow-up to what Jeanine and Doug were talking to you on slide 18. I guess just when I think about the risked inventory that you’ve got at the moment and we think about sort of the balancing act of adding to that risked inventory, either via bolt-on deals like you have done recently versus appraisal and testing to kind of move that upside location count into the risked inventory. I guess when you just sort of look out the next 2, 3 years, I mean, would you anticipate that more of those risk inventory locations comes from more of these kind of bolt-on deals, or is it more from kind of the appraisal, testing, spacing type of efforts?
Clay Gaspar:
Thanks for the question, John. This is Clay again. I would say more from the appraisal. We think about the work that we’re doing in a lot of these horizons that are just not quite defined on downspacing, what’s the right spacing test, maybe even vertically. Is there two landing zones there or is there three landing zones in some of these intervals. And then I think about some of the stuff that’s a little bit further afield, say, in the Powder, there’s a lot more opportunity there to bolt on to that number from the appraisal standpoint. Any additional -- just to be clear, we don’t have any assumptions on future acquisitions or any additional bolt-ons in any of these numbers.
John Freeman:
And then, when I think about for next year, I appreciate some of the early kind of color on how to think about 2023 from an activity standpoint and some of the cost inflation levers. Is there anything from like a midstream perspective on a year-over-year basis that we should also consider whether it’s related to some of the bolt-ons recently getting bigger in some of these areas, just that necessitate some more midstream infrastructure spend in ‘23 versus ‘22 and we’ll kind of trying to finalize what we think about the ‘23 budget?
Clay Gaspar:
Yes. Just think about it kind of similar to ‘22, kind of a similar runway.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Matthew Portillo with TPH.
Matthew Portillo:
Just to start out a question around Q4. It looks like the market is a little bit spooked on the guidance. As we look at the well data in the Permian in particular, your well results look extremely consistent on a year-over-year perspective, but curious as you guys look at the data, how you’re feeling about your productivity trends. And then, if you are seeing fairly consistent well results, just curious if there’s anything to take into account regards to till timing during the fourth quarter that might have led to some of the guidance shaking out in Q4.
Clay Gaspar:
Yes. Thanks, Matt. I appreciate being able to talk about that because the well performance is phenomenal. This is an absolutely world-class asset. We love the position we’re in. We love the scale that we have. The team keeps delivering. We’re still working on the efficiencies. We’re still applying technology, always trying to get a little better, a little smarter each day. No doubt about it. We have some inflation coming our way. So there is some squeeze to the margin -- on the margin, but I would take this world-class asset and love having in our portfolio and really, really pleased on what’s going on with the team and what they’re doing.
Matthew Portillo:
And then, I guess, a follow-up question, Clay, maybe on the STACK. You guys have started the upspace program here with Dow. Looks like some impressive initial rates. Just curious if you could provide some context around well performance with the upspace completion design. And then additionally, just a view on midstream infrastructure as the asset starts back on growth, should we expect further midstream build out either on a G&P perspective or some marketing to move gas further south to accommodate that growth in ‘23 and ‘24?
Clay Gaspar:
Thanks for the question on STACK, Matt. Again, the team is looking at this holistically, thinking about what’s the right way to extract the optimum value, balancing rate of return, balancing NPV and thinking about the levers that we have. The first and the most significant is well spacing. The second, of course, is completion design. Both of those I mentioned in my prepared remarks. We like the approach that we have. Clearly, we have to understand what commodity price is going to do. And as those numbers rise up on gas and NGL realizations, there’s an opportunity for us to maybe even take a step tighter and still achieve super competitive returns. So, we’re still working on that. Like what we’re seeing as we move into the gas window, certainly the higher commodity price and the gas certainly helps. It’s a significant amount of upside for our inventory. As we think about the midstream, the nice thing about working in the Anadarko Basin is a lot of built-out midstream. So, we feel really good about the runway. Of course, we have regular conversations with our midstream partners trying to stay out years ahead because these big wells, especially with the gas volumes, can take up a lot of space in pipe and in plants. And so, we want to make sure we’re telegraphing what we’re doing to our midstream partners. And I would say that those conversations are going along very, very well.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Kevin MacCurdy with Pickering Energy Partners.
Kevin MacCurdy:
Good morning, guys. And congratulations on a good production quarter above guidance. The only area you didn’t beat our expectations was in the Bakken. And I wonder if you could talk about the integration of the RimRock assets and what you expect the trajectory of the production to be? You mentioned earlier that there was a 65,000 barrel a day exit rate. Is that for the full quarter, or will you expect to grow above that next year?
Clay Gaspar:
Yes. I would say roughly so that 65% -- or 65,000 BOE a day is about -- what would be for the quarter. So, I appreciate the acknowledgment of the third quarter, sometimes that can get lost. The teams worked exceptionally hard to continue to perform, and we’re really, really pleased with that. The Williston as we take over on any of these acquisition deals, no doubt about it, there’s going to be handoffs and little bumps in the road. There was a particular pad that came in. We had some delays. And as you know, when you’re running kind of a subscale activity, just a few days or a week of delay can manifest into a larger delay when you’re really trying to pick up and lay down equipment. And that beat us there. And so, we had a little bit of a transition issue there. But I think we’ve got the team up and running now, feel really good. I’ve bragged on many of earnings calls about the Williston team in particular, have tremendous regard for them and faith in their execution. And again, this is -- integration is not necessarily normal core competency. We’ve taken it as one that we need to be exceptionally good at this. And I’m really proud of the results we’re seeing around the organization from HR, from the IT department, from the accounting group, everybody coming together to really bring these assets in and ultimately extract the optimum value for the shareholders.
Scott Coody:
Well, I appreciate everyone’s interest in Devon today. And if you have any further questions, please don’t hesitate to reach out to the Investor Relations team at any time. Have a good day. Thank you.
Operator:
This concludes today’s Devon Energy Third Quarter 2022 Earnings Call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect your line.
Operator:
Welcome to Devon Energy's Second Quarter Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions]. This call is being recorded. I'd now like to turn the call over to Mr. Scott Coody, Vice President of Investor Relations. Sir, you may begin.
Scott Coody:
Good morning, and thank you to everyone for joining us on the call today. Last night, we issued an earnings release and presentation that cover our results for the quarter and updated outlook. Throughout the call today, we will make references to the earnings presentation to support prepared remarks, and these slides can be found on our website. Also joining me on the call today are Rick Muncrief, our President and CEO; Clay Gaspar, our Chief Operating Officer; Jeff Ritenour, our Chief Financial Officer; and a few other members of our senior management team. Comments today will include plans, forecasts and estimates that are forward-looking statements under U.S. securities law. These comments are subject to assumptions, risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ from our forward-looking statements. Please take note of the cautionary language and risk factors provided in our SEC filings and earnings materials. With that, I'll turn the call over to Rick.
Richard Muncrief:
Thank you, Scott. It's great to be here this morning, and we appreciate everyone taking the time to join us on the call today. By all measures, the second quarter was another excellent performance for Devon as our business continued to strengthen and build momentum. Our quarterly results were highlighted by our Delaware-focused operating plan that delivered production above our guidance expectations. Capital was below budget, margins expanded and we paid record high cash payouts to shareholders. We also took important steps to strengthen the quality and depth of our asset portfolio. All in all, it was another quarter of systemic and systematic execution across the tenets of our cash return business model that shareholders have become accustomed to. To begin with, I'd like to turn your attention to Slide 3 and 4, which describes who we are. We are a financially disciplined company delivering high returns on invested capital, attractive per share growth and large cash returns to shareholders. While our disciplined capital allocation framework on Slide 3 is foundational to Devon's financial success, also want to highlight that another critical competitive advantage contributing to our strong results is the depth and quality of our asset portfolio. As you can see on Slide 4, with Devon's portfolio anchored by our world-class Delaware Basin asset, we possess a long duration resource base that is high graded to the very best plays on the U.S. cost curve. Furthermore, with this low-cost asset portfolio, we also have diversified exposure across both oil and liquids-rich gas opportunities, affording us the flexibility to pursue the highest returns and netbacks through the commodity cycle. While this premier multi-basin portfolio positions us to deliver strong capital efficiency and repeatable results for the foreseeable future, we are not complacent and are always looking for smart ways to strengthen our asset base. And this is exactly what we accomplished with our recent acquisition of RimRock's assets in the Williston Basin along with a series of high-impact acreage trades in the Delaware that optimize our leasehold for future development. Clay will cover these transactions in greater detail later in the call. However, I do want to emphasize that these portfolio additions are highly complementary to our existing acreage footprint. They tactically unlock quality inventory in the core of the play and the immediate financial accretions from these transactions allow us to further step up the return of cash to shareholders. Now moving to Slide 5. The key message here is very simple. The combination of our strategy, our asset base and execution has resulted in an impressive track record of value creation for our shareholders. Since we unveiled the industry's very first cash return framework, upon the WPX merger in late 2020, we have consistently delivered on our strategy to return increasing amounts of cash to shareholders while steadily improving our investment-grade financial strength. As you can see on the chart, since the closing of the merger, we have cumulatively returned $6.2 billion of value to shareholders in only 18 months. For perspective, this value exceeds more than 100% of the combined market capitalization of the 2 companies at the time of the merger announcement, unbelievable. Jumping ahead to Slide 7. With a strong operational performance achieved year-to-date, we are raising guidance expectations for the full year of 2022. As you can see on the top left, a key contributor to this improved outlook is our 2022 production targets increased by 3% to a range of 600,000 to 610,000 BOE per day. These higher volume expectations are due to better-than-expected well performance year-to-date and the positive impact from our recent bolt-on acquisition in the Williston Basin. After accounting for the benefits of our share repurchase program, this outlook puts us on track to deliver a very healthy production per share growth rate of 8% this year. We are also adjusting our upstream capital to a range of $2.2 billion to $2.4 billion versus our prior guidance of approximately $2.1 billion. This updated guidance incorporates $100 million of incremental capital from the Williston acquisition and includes additional inflationary cost pressures associated with this higher commodity price environment. Overall, at current pricing, this updated outlook is resulting in a 25% plus improvement in free cash flow generation compared to the assumptions that underpinned our original budget expectations. The key takeaway here is that our low-cost asset base is capturing the benefits of higher commodity prices and winning the battle against inflationary pressures. Now on Slide 8. I want to briefly showcase how our improved 2022 outlook translates into a compelling free cash flow yield. To demonstrate this point, we've included a simple comparison of our estimated free cash flow yield in 2022 compared to other common equity benchmarks in the financial markets. As you can see from the 2 charts at today's pricing, Devon's attractive free cash flow yield of 16% is up to 4x higher in the broader market. I expect this valuation gap, which is at historically wide levels to correct as investors rediscover highly profitable and value-oriented names like Devon. Now going to Slide 9. With this powerful stream of free cash flow, our priorities remain unchanged, which means the first call on our free cash flow is the funding of our fixed plus variable dividend. With this predictive and formulaic framework, we are on track to pay out around $5 per share this year, which is at a yield of more than 8%, places Devon as one of the highest-yielding stocks in the entire U.S. market. However, I want to be quick to add that we are not just a high-yielding dividend story. We're also bolstering our per share growth by opportunistically repurchasing our stock. With the share repurchase program, we are on track to retire up to 6% of our outstanding shares at what we believe to be trading at a substantial discount to our intrinsic value. As you can see on the right, even with a large cash payout, we still have excess cash flow left over to further strengthen our investment-grade balance sheet. This balanced and transparent capital allocation framework provides us multiple avenues to create value for our shareholders through the cycle. And finally, on Slide 14, I want to end my remarks with a few thoughts on what you can expect from Devon as we plan for the upcoming year. While it is still a bit too premature to provide formal production and capital targets for 2023, I can tell you that there will be no shift to our strategy. We will continue to prioritize free cash flow and per share financial growth, not the pursuit of top line volume growth. We are designing to plan that pursue steady and consistent activity levels to optimize supply chain cost and certainty of execution in this exceptionally tight market. And finally, with our low breakeven funding levels, we remain well positioned to navigate the recent market volatility and build upon our track record of delivering outsized cash returns. And with that, I will turn the call over to Clay to cover our operational highlights for this most recent quarter.
Clay Gaspar:
Thanks, Rick, and good morning, everyone. As I reflect back, not just on the quarter, but the last 18 months since we've closed our merger, I'm very proud of what we've accomplished. Last year at this time, we were well past the hard work of organizational design answering the who, but still very deep into the systems process and culture building that's incredibly important to answering the how of running the company. In some ways, we're rebuilding the engine while we ran the race. This year, we're continuing with the never-ending challenge of improving systems, processes and culture, but we're also keenly focused on external factors like inflation and supply chain uncertainty. While these challenges are real and something we dedicate a lot of attention to, I'm also fully confident in our team's ability to once again differentiate Devon from the pack and execute on an exceptionally high level. The second quarter results are a perfect example of this product related to this focus. As a summary of the operating results displayed on Slide 16, which showcases our solid production beat better-than-forecasted capital efficiency and the expansion of our per unit margins to the highest level in more than a decade. I know it can be a bit mind numbing when the team makes these results look as easy as they have. But listen, every well in the portfolio, average 30-day IP for the entire company of 2,900 BOE per day per well, $60-plus field level margins and a reinvestment rate of 22% are incredibly impressive when you put them into historical context. The perpetually strong results that we've delivered since the merger between WPX and Devon is simply an outflow of 3 key factors
Jeffrey Ritenour:
Thanks, Clay. I'll spend my time today covering the key drivers of our strong financial results for the quarter, and I'll also provide some insights into our outlook for the rest of the year. Beginning with production, our total volumes in the second quarter averaged 616,000 BOE per day, exceeding the midpoint of our guidance by 4%. This production beat was across all products due to another strong quarter of well productivity in the Delaware Basin. As Rick touched on earlier, with our performance to date, we now expect our volumes for the full year 2022 to be around 300 basis points ahead of our original budgeted expectations. For the second half of the year, we expect the strongest oil growth to occur in the fourth quarter driven by the timing of completion activity. Moving to expenses. Our lease operating and GP&T costs were $7.71 per BOE. This result was slightly elevated compared to our forecast due to higher workover activity and moderate pricing pressures across several service and supply cost categories. Overall, our exposure to higher value production, coupled with a well cost structure, expanded Devon's field level cash margin to $60.12 per BOE, a 22% increase from last quarter. Cutting to the bottom line, our core earnings increased for the 8th quarter in a row to $2.59 per share. This level of earnings momentum translated into operating cash flow of $2.7 billion in the second quarter. After funding our capital program, we generated $2.1 billion of free cash flow in the quarter. This result represents the highest free cash flow generation Devon has ever delivered in a quarter and is a powerful example of the financial results, our cash returns business model can deliver. The top priority for our free cash flow is the funding of our dividend and in conjunction with our earnings report, we announced a record high fixed plus variable dividend of $1.55 per share that is payable at the end of September. This payout represents a 22% increase from last quarter and includes the benefit of a 13% raise to the fixed dividend that was announced with our recent Williston Basin acquisition. In addition to the strong dividend payout, Devon also repurchased $324 million of stock in the second quarter. Since we initiated the program last November, we've retired nearly 24 million shares, lowering our outstanding share count by 4%. We continue to believe the double-digit free cash flow yield of our equity offers a unique buying opportunity for us. We also took steps to further strengthen our financial position in the quarter with cash balances increasing $832 million to a total of $3.5 billion. With this increased liquidity, Devon exited the quarter with a low net debt-to-EBITDA ratio of 0.4x. And lastly, I want to briefly highlight that our disciplined strategy and execution are resulting in excellent returns on capital employed. Based on our performance year-to-date and our outlook for the remainder of the year, I expect our return on capital employed to exceed 40% in 2022. This outstanding return profile, combined with our cash return framework, further reinforces the unique investment opportunity Devon offers versus other opportunities in the market today. With that, I'll now turn the call back to Rick for some closing comments.
Richard Muncrief:
Thank you, Jeff. Great job. I'd like to close today by reiterating 4 key messages from our call
Scott Coody:
Thanks, Rick. We'll now open the call to Q&A. [Operator Instructions]. With that, operator, we'll take our first question.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions]. Our first question comes from Jeanine Wai from Barclays.
Jeanine Wai:
Our question is on -- our first question is on -- our first question is on discipline. You mentioned that you mark-to-market the 2022 CapEx budget for inflation, presumably based on recent conversations with your providers. And I guess, how has those conversations really shaped your updated view on '23? And what we're getting at is you could pretty easily argue that returns being as high as they are, that inflation would have to get pretty high to make returns unattractive. And it's pretty clear how the market defines discipline on the production growth side. But how do you define discipline on the cost side?
Clay Gaspar:
Jeanine, this is Clay. I'll take this one. The strategy remains the same. We do have categories of the strategy related to growth. The 0% to 5% is kind of one of the metrics. But if you refer back to Slide 3, we also focus a lot on free cash flow. On Slide 16, we talk about some of the margins. And so now that the focus is not just how much capital are we spending or how much production are we making. It's the flow-through result. And so while we're really excited about the margins today, and we're really excited about the 22% reinvestment rate, we have a stated goal to be somewhere below 70% on that reinvestment rate. So there's a lot of flexibility on built in and allowing us to continue the strategy even with the headwinds of the very real inflation we're seeing today.
Jeanine Wai:
Okay. Great. And then maybe moving to cash returns. There's been a lot of talk on buybacks this morning. For the past 2 quarters, Devon has increased the buyback authorization by about the amount of share buybacks that you did during that quarter. This quarter, the Board kept the authorization flat at $2 billion. And so we're just wondering, is there anything in particular that's driving you to treat the authorization differently this quarter than prior quarters?
Jeffrey Ritenour:
Yes, Jeanine, this is Jeff. Thanks for the question. Yes, the biggest thing that happened for us here at the quarter was we were blacked out the bulk of the second quarter as it relates to our share repurchase program, given the RimRock transaction that we've talked about. So we didn't quite get as much done as we would have liked to, that left us with just over $800 million of authorization still available to us. And so we felt like we've got plenty to go execute on here over the next quarter in the back half of this year. And of course, if we make as much progress on that front as we hope to hear in the near term, we'll absolutely go back to our Board and reload that authorization to accomplish more share repurchase. It's a critical component of our cash return strategy. And as Clay mentioned, we're very much focused on per share growth on all line items.
Operator:
The next question comes from Arun Jayaram from JPMorgan.
Arun Jayaram:
My first question is if we look at first half activity, perhaps for Clay. You guys tried to sells 131 wells, about 80%, a little bit over 100 in the Delaware Basin. We are seeing a little bit more spud activity or drilling activity in some of your other basins. So I was wondering if you could give us a sense for the 3Q TILs of 100, maybe a little bit of help on the mix on a basin level, just broad mix?
Clay Gaspar:
Yes, Arun, thanks for the question. We're still going to be obviously dominated by Delaware activity. We have some interesting work coming in, in the other basins as well. But it's -- I would say, for the third quarter, in particular, consider at least 55% or so, Delaware, some other number of wells coming in, in the other areas. You're also going to see the productivity of the Delaware Basin will also lever that turn-in-line number to a higher productivity, the higher contribution. We've gotten a lot of questions on the numbers on the kind of the flow of the capital throughout the year. We're definitely more back-end weighted with the activity, the number of wells that we bring online but we also have an ebb and flow related to working interest that relates also to some of the capital flows as well.
Arun Jayaram:
Great. That's helpful. And maybe one for Rick. Rick, you guys announced a couple of things on portfolio renewal over the last quarter, RimRock plus some of the acreage trades in the Delaware I was wondering if you view kind of RimRock as kind of a one-off just opportunistic? Or is this part of a broader strategy, call it these niche acquisitions to address portfolio renewal?
Richard Muncrief:
Well, Arun, that's a good question. We get that quite a bit. And I think we have been very consistent with our answer for the last couple of years, and we will always be looking for unique opportunities like RimRock afforded us, also like the acreage trade that Clay talked about. We'll continue to look for those opportunities. And I'll say this is -- there's something pretty attractive about buying something at 2x cash flow in this day and time, when you think that it really fits in with your story and you've got the industrial logic. So I don't expect us to ever be a serial purchaser per se. I hear that term a lot, but that does, but I will say that we'll always be looking for opportunities to strengthen our company's asset base and continue to build Devon for the long haul. We mentioned -- earlier this year, we celebrated our 50th anniversary as a company, and we really think about multi-decade. When we talk about it, it's just not an arm waving exercise. We truly are committed to that.
Operator:
The next question comes from Doug Leggate from Bank of America.
Doug Leggate:
Rick, I wonder if I could ask you or maybe, Jeff, about the second half CapEx run rate. Obviously, RimRock is part of that, but there's also some midstream spending in there. How should we think about the 2023 implications of the second half of '22. Can we kind of annualize that and get a handle as to what we think CapEx might look like next year?
Richard Muncrief:
Yes. I'd say this, Doug, as we said in our prepared comments, it's a little early for us to give you granular detail. We're going to continue to stick with our strategy of maintenance type spending level. You talked about the midstream asset spending, we do have some expansion. We have the joint venture. We're going to be building our third train. That JV is going very, very well. We've got the 400 million a day cryo plant is full, and so we'll be working with our partners there to expand that to handle our gas production there. But still too early for us to be laying out any 2023 numbers. And I don't know if Clay or Jeff want to weigh in on that, but that's kind of where we're at right now, Paul.
Doug Leggate:
Okay. Rick, I guess my follow-up would be on gas. You guys are the economics of your portfolio, obviously, has got a lot of variability in it. depending on what the gas deck is, and obviously, it looks to us at least that the outlook for U.S. gas has been reset some here, maybe to some kind of a new normal. I'm just wondering if you could talk then about capital allocation across the portfolio. And obviously, what I've got in mind is in Mid-Con, in particular.
Richard Muncrief:
Yes. Doug, that's a great question. We get it quite a bit. And I can tell you, when you're looking at a $1 commodity price for gas, it's -- I think you're really -- I think people listen to us more than they did back when it was a $3.50 gas price, and we talked about the diversity that we enjoy with this portfolio that we have. And so for us, I don't know that you're going to change -- you'll expect to see us change our capital program allocation because recall that in our Delaware Basin, we do have a great deal of gas production there. So really some wonderful returns. We do have 4 rigs running here in the Anadarko Basin to your point. We're seeing some great returns there. And the one thing that we want to do is a little bit more assessment type work there, some ideas that we have. And so we'll be very measured with that. But it's a wonderful asset. We have a great acreage position. We have a great joint venture partner, which we talked about with Dow. And the JV is going very well. We're generating some phenomenal returns with it. We're going to be very measured, very thoughtful about it. So I wouldn't expect us to have significant changes in our capital allocation mix.
Operator:
The next question comes from Scott Hanold from RBC Capital Markets.
Scott Hanold:
Yes. Just -- my first question is going to be around your view of intrinsic value. Can you give us a sense of how you get your arms around what the Devon's intrinsic value is. How aggressive will you get on the stock buybacks? And as part of that discussion, it would be interesting to hear your thoughts on your 50% variable dividend payout ratio if there is some flexibility to move higher than that? Or is really just keeping optionality for buybacks and maybe bolt-on another kind of M&A activity, the continued plan?
Jeffrey Ritenour:
Yes, Scott, this is Jeff. Thanks for the question. Maybe I'll hit the second part first, which is we're big believers in all of the above. So the framework that we've laid out provides an opportunity for a fixed plus variable dividend and then the share repurchases, as you mentioned. We think all of those are critical components to deliver on the business and operating in the financial model that we've laid out. Feel really good about that. Don't expect to see that change from us in the near term. We feel really good about the 50% threshold level for the variable dividend. As you point out, it provides us flexibility to bring cash back to the balance sheet for, obviously, any debt repurchases that we want to do, which we've mapped some of that out here over the last couple of calls. We've got $1 billion, we think we can do over the next 2 years, which is important to us to maintain our financial strength on the balance sheet. And then on top of that, we can execute on our share repurchase initiative. So to your first question around intrinsic value and how we kind of think about the share repurchase, we're just like you guys, we've got 3, 4, 5, 10 different models that we look at when we evaluate our core business, run sensitivities operationally and financially, different price decks, different discount rates and how we think about that calculating that intrinsic value. We also do a lot of market comparisons, right, with -- from a multiple standpoint and otherwise. Bottom line is when we put all that together, any which way we cut it, we think our shares are an outstanding value right now. And have been for some time. When you look at the business model that we've rolled out and the outputs that we're generating case in point, the second quarter result. It's pretty clear to us that folks ought to be buying our equity, and that's exactly what we're going to be doing going forward. So as I mentioned earlier, we've got over $800 million to go execute remaining on the current authorization and expect to approach the Board later this year for additional upside.
Scott Hanold:
That's great color. And my follow-up question is you talked about looking at opportunistic activity, I mean with the bolt-ons and RimRock. But I think the term you used for that is portfolio renewal. Can you give us a sense of how you think about portfolio renewal versus acquisition per scale? Do you -- is Devon a right scale for -- to be a very efficient company? Or do you think there's still some advantages of rather than just buying stuff for renewal just for scale to have better cost efficiency on a per unit basis?
Richard Muncrief:
Well, I'll say this. I think we're going to continue to see opportunities that come our way that we have to contemplate a number of things. Number 1 is the renewal, if you will, of inventory. We drill 300, 400 wells a year. So you just -- you think of that, even though you've got a deep inventory, we are an industry that needs to continue to renew your inventory, whether it's through exploration or transactions. And so I think that will always be part of our game plan to consider those. But there's also other things that come into play. Clay mentioned the acreage trades where suddenly we can drill another couple of hundred 2-mile laterals instead of 1 mile, and I can tell you, it just supercharges your returns. So there's a lot of ways we'll do that. We have a great team both the land and the business development side, we look at all sorts of opportunities, but we have a very, very high bar and we're going to keep that bar quite high, and we can do that because of the inventory that we currently enjoy. And so I just don't know that we'll always -- we'll ever say that it's just absolutely part of our game plan, but I do think we'll have opportunities that come our way that could make sense for us.
Operator:
The next question comes from Neal Dingmann from Truist Securities.
Neal Dingmann:
Guys, and I'll refrain for sure returns to Devon, you guys are going to continue paying out. But Rick, my question is rather more on overall strategy, specifically, are there macro drivers or maybe even change in large investor sentiment that would have you all consider potentially more growth, let's say, next year, coupled with this large shareholder return?
Richard Muncrief:
The shareholders we talk to and we frequently engaged with, the feedback we get continues to be similar to ours, and that is focused on a per share approach. And so when we talk about growth, it's a per share growth. And so fundamentally, unless we have shareholders, numerous shareholders that come in and say, look, we absolutely -- we do not like these big dividends. We do not like your share repurchase program. We want you to go back to a growth model. Until we see that, I see no reason to change our strategy. And this is a strategy that we didn't -- we've really not tweaked our strategy since we laid out the merger announcement in September of 2020 and nearly 2 years ago. And so I think we've been very consistent. We did -- a few quarters back, we did talk about bumping our fixed dividend and we also talk about the -- adding the share repurchase option. And those are things that really just solidified our cash return model and I think as commodity prices strengthen, we saw it just -- it really adhered us to our shareholders when you could go across with all those options and deliver across the board. So to go back and completely change our strategy, I don't know, it just seems like a real long put for us right now to -- and we're certainly not getting that feedback from our investors.
Neal Dingmann:
Yes. No, I agree. That definitely long put today. And then second question, maybe for Clay on Delaware activity specifically, could you address the current and future federal permits, of course, in the New Mexico area and I'm just wondering, will these permits or potentially just in the entire play lease expirations cause you to reallocate more activity into either Southern Living or Wingfield counties than you currently have?
Clay Gaspar:
Yes. Thanks for the question, Neil. It's -- I relate the federal land, it's kind of like work in international stuff. You have certain rules to live by. There's really good things about it, and there are some challenging things about it. I think specifically with the federal lands is you need to have a long view on a program. You need to be 2 years out ahead. You need to plan for your right of ways, you need to plan for your tie-ins, you need to plan for all the contingencies and that's how we treat it. So happy to report. We still have 600-plus permits out ahead of us. That gives us plenty of runway. We're working very diligently with the local BLM office. I think they have a better understanding of what D&C is asking them to do, great hard working people that want to do their jobs well. And we work really hard to make them successful at helping us do what we need to do. So I would say, so far, we feel good about the trajectory. There's always the concern of something changing. We'll react to that then. But I think most importantly, is having a long vision, a road map that allows us to stay out in front. As Rick mentioned earlier, having a diverse portfolio, having assets on the Texas side of the basin, having assets in other areas around the country is only accretive to the story. Currently, we're allocating quite a bit of our total capital to the Northern Delaware because of the amazing returns that we have there. And the great work that the team does allowing us to execute on it.
Operator:
The next question comes from John Freeman from Raymond James.
John Freeman:
The Delaware well results continue to look quite good, but it is interesting that the lateral lengths are a good bit shorter through the first half of the year than what we've seen the prior couple of years. And obviously, you all highlighted the Stateline acreage trade that you all did, which caught up a good bit of the acreage highlighted to do some more extended reach laterals and, I guess, I'm just trying to get a sense of kind of, I guess, a, what has kind of driven kind of the first half activity to be maybe on the shorter side on the laterals. Again, good results, but the laterals being a good bit shorter than what we've been accustomed to and maybe how to think about that going forward if we'll kind of move back toward that 10,000 type lateral length or better?
Clay Gaspar:
Yes, John, appreciate the question. We are always striving to drill long laterals. And long today is sometimes 2-, sometimes 3-mile laterals. We've built really good proficiency in multiple basins to drill 3-mile laterals in North Dakota in the Anadarko Basin quite a bit all over the Delaware Basin as well. And so where the land position allows us to do that, that's often our first option. I can tell you in a little bit more of a mature development, you kind of set the tone on development, for example, 2-mile lateral development relatively early. And once that's established, it's hard to revert to 3 miles. You just saw the great trade that we did, allowing us to go from 1 mile to 2 miles, that's of very high importance. We really try -- we've been holding back all that development, those 9 DSUs avoiding the 1-mile drilling because we had hoped to be able to get this transaction completed. So you'll continue to see us push 2 and 3 miles. And sometimes we'll have 75,000 out of necessity and of course, the occasional 1 model. As I look at the results for the second quarter, 9,100 feet is what we delivered. That's a little bit shorter than the 97,000 to 10,000 that we've seen in prior quarters. I wouldn't take that as a statistical anomaly. It's just the stack of how many actual 3 miles versus how many 75,000 fell into that quarter. But we're always trying to push longer and keep that capital efficiency up high.
John Freeman:
And then a follow-up question for me. In the past, you've -- you talked about one of the things that you have used to try and combat cost inflation as sort of your size and kind of consistent activity levels in terms of being able to look out and maybe layer in some longer-term sort of contracts for both materials and services. And I'm just curious if we could get some feel for kind of what the environment is at the moment in terms of service providers kind of willingness to offer longer-term contracts through 2023 or if it's just too cost prohibitive to kind of do that at this point?
Clay Gaspar:
Yes, John, I appreciate you bringing up the question because it's a -- if it was important last year, it's 10x important this year. In fact, I would even point to a transaction like RimRock as maybe one of the contributing factors of us being able to get that deal done. As you can imagine, working in a tough environment like North Dakota, having to try and pick up, drop various services. It is a really tall order. Even to get basic casing design and some of the basic equipment necessary to get work done. And I think that allowed us to come in with scale and have a higher degree of execution certainty and kind of break the log jam. We have been trying to buy this particular piece of business for several years. And I think that was a contributing factor. So like I said, incredibly important. We're really proud of the business model, the consistency helps a ton as we have lots of dialogue with our service company partners. It's the first thing they bring up. Number 1 is scale. Number 2 is consistency. So very much top of mind. Specific to your question on longer time contracting, there's always an appetite for us. From our side, from their side, it's just a matter of that kind of that bid-ask spread. And we have our own view on where service cost is going to go. So kind of pairing that out and lining that up. I would say we try to balance some of the longer term and mid- and shorter term as well to keep ourselves active in the market.
Operator:
The next question comes from Neil Mehta from Goldman Sachs.
Neil Mehta:
And Rick, the first question is for you on the macro. You've had a really good call better than most on the oil macro with the bullish view that you laid out earlier this year on one of the calls. We're going into an OPEC meeting tomorrow. I'd just love to hear your perspective on the moving pieces then being the demand outlook, U.S. production decline rates in non-OPEC and obviously, OPEC behavior. How do you think about the moving pieces as we look forward and the sustainability of this up cycle.
Richard Muncrief:
Yes, Neil, great question. I guess for us, we think that just fundamentally, OPEC, we'll see what they come up with. But they probably may handicap a little bit of the concerns around a possible recession that could impact demand some -- somewhat. I don't think it's going to be very, very large. If they were to bump there, let's say, Saudi specifically, if they were to bump their productivity. I don't think it would be a large bump because I think in the back of their minds, they're looking at a lot of data like we all are, right? And so they're going to be -- I think they're going to be very measured. The rest of OPEC, I just think, quite honestly, I think are going to be very, very challenged to getting more close their quotas. That's been, I think, well represented. So for us, when we think about maybe a slight uptick in Saudi's production, maybe even the UAE, but I don't think it's going to be that strong. You see continued discipline. You do see some growth here in the lower 48, but it's still a disciplined approach. China is -- there's a point in time when you will see that demand, I believe, increase as they started reopening. In our mind, demand is going to be strong. And I think demand is going to -- net-net is you're going to start -- you'll still see some demand growth until we see prices -- I think WTI north of 120. That's kind of what we thought the first time and it pulled back and it could have been just circumstantial. But -- so we'll see. But I think for us, we're very constructive on the commodity price environment. That's both on the crude side and then on the gas side, too. I've been a little surprised that gas didn't pull back a little harder and stay, but it's -- I think we've talked about it with our team, just fundamentally, you do not want to be short at gas in this world. And I think that at that point-driven, whether it's whether it's a Uri storm or type storm or some of the geopolitical things, you just do not want to be short at gas. That's an uncomfortable place for governments and utilities and the greater society. So we're very, very constructive. I think for us, we just -- Neil, we're very pleased with our execution. We're staying on top of the supply chain the best we can, and it's, I think, going well. We've made some really strong moves on -- in the marketing front, both on the gas side and the crude side to ensure, in my mind, very consistent reliable flows to the market. So I think we've done what we need to do. And I guess the takeaway for us is that we still are constructive on demand, both on the oil and gas side.
Neil Mehta:
That's really helpful perspective. If I could dive a little deeper into the U.S. production profile, that's one of the great debates in the oil markets right now is where we are in terms of productivity of U.S. shale and whether the U.S. oil assets are maturing at which point we're moving more to maintenance mode versus growth mode. You have a unique perspective because you operate in so many different basins. I would love your perspective on whether we should be thinking of the U.S. as more of a mature base and as opposed to a growth base, which again would support the more constructive macro view.
Richard Muncrief:
Yes. I think -- let's start with crude. I think for us, we are really -- there's ranges of estimates out there. So we think about the balance of growth throughout the back half of '22, and we're probably a little more conservative than what some of the estimates are. And so in other words, we're not as bullish on U.S. growth as some will be for the back half. And there's a number of reasons there. I think for the -- as far as the maturation where we're at with the lower 48 plays, fundamentally, I think you've seen places like the Bakken, the Eagle Ford, in particular, where you've seen volumes are hanging in there, but you're really not seeing a lot of growth. I think we did see an uptick in the Eagle Ford, but it's come back some, but I think both of those basins will be challenged to grow much. I think you have plays like the DJ and the Anadarko. We're not in the DJ, but that's a place we'll watch. I think in places like -- especially like the Anadarko, gas is going to be -- you can see some growth there. But it's going to be, I think, in aggregate, going to be somewhat moderate. And so it all comes down to the Permian. And I think the Permian will continue to be the only basin that grow substantially. But even with the Permian, I think you'll start seeing impacts of things like the supply chain pinch and others. I think many of the private operators have been the ones that have driven the growth. The first -- I really say about the last 12 months. And so I think that's going to moderate a little bit. And so we'll see how it all plays out. You'll still see growth, obviously, but I think it's going to play out a little bit. It may not be quite as much growth as some people have forecasted. We'll see how it plays out.
Operator:
The next question is from Matthew Portillo from TPH.
Matthew Portillo:
Perhaps a question for -- a question for Clay around delineation in the Permian. You've had some pretty outstanding results in the Bone Spring. I was curious how your thinking on that play has evolved as you work the asset both in New Mexico and at the Stateline and what that might mean for inventory expansion over time.
Clay Gaspar:
Yes, Matt, thanks for the question. Yes, you might have noticed that in the slide, we highlighted some of the results. On the New Mexico side, it was really a lot on the Wolfcamp, which has kind of been seen as the secondary bench, secondary to some of the Bone Spring activity that's been -- that's dominated the area for the last few years. And then on the Texas side, we actually talked a lot about the Bone Spring, which again is a little bit secondary historically to Wolfcamp. As you can see from the results, these results are exceptional. And so it gives us great confidence that the productivity of Wolfcamp and Delaware is -- doesn't change magically at the border. It's pretty ubiquitous throughout this part of the Delaware Basin. The real trick is finding out the right recipe, spacing, staggering, sequencing and the team is making tremendous progress on that. It's kind of one of the hidden synergies of having 2 really strong teams that have worked this problem individually, come together, compare notes and really try and parse out what is the right solution on this. So we'll never have the final answer, but I can tell you we are much further along than we were even just a year or 2 ago and understanding how to do this. And that's certainly a significant contribution to our understanding of the portfolio and the incredible results that you're seeing today.
Matthew Portillo:
Great. And then just as a quick follow-up. Last quarter, you highlighted the potential savings from vertical integration on your sand mine expansion in the Permian. I was just curious if you could give us updated thoughts on potentially expanding this operation beyond the Permian and additional mines that might be able to be developed going forward to continue to lower your cost on development.
Clay Gaspar:
Yes, we're certainly looking at it. When a slide like that makes the deck, you can bet around the company, everybody wants some of that. And so it's been a lot of fun to see the excitement and the kind of creativity around the organization. What I'll tell you is we have a really unique position in the Delaware, one it starts with the geology in this case, the surface geology, but also the ownership, also the logistics. And so those holes have to line up for us to be able to execute on this. I would say I'm cautiously optimistic at this point of being able to expand, not just in the Delaware, but to other basins and use some of the same techniques. We're learning a lot, but it's been a real home run to our operations. As I mentioned, this trade, the wet sand mine that we have up and running even further enhances the already incredible economics that we're producing. So that leveraging of the margin is, especially in place like Stateline is just -- is pretty phenomenal. So happy to see more of it in due time.
Operator:
The next question is from Kevin MacCurdy from Pickering Energy Partners.
Kevin MacCurdy:
My question is now that you've closed on the RimRock acquisition. I'm curious what you're seeing on costs compared to your legacy acreage and any opportunities for further efficiencies.
Clay Gaspar:
Thanks, Kevin. I would say it's really pretty early. We are just taking over some of the operations now. Best thing to do is a whole lot of consistency to make sure we don't having any of the wheels fall off in the process. But there's certainly techniques. I would say, generally speaking, completion designs are roughly similar. I think we'll see some tweaking. I think certainly, our supply chain efforts will help right away in kind of the next round of wells. But I want to be real clear. We are also taking this opportunity to learn. We can learn from everybody, RimRock is fighting a good fight just as everyone else in our industry is doing. And so every time we either look at one of these deals or when we were able to actually consummate a deal, we take it as an opportunity to step up our own game as well. And there's things mainly on the facility side, some nuggets that we've already picked up, and we're exporting to the rest of the basin from this transaction.
Kevin MacCurdy:
Great. And as a follow-up, any color that you can give us on the comment of steady and consistent activity levels next year and maybe how production could trend from your 4Q exit rate at a steady and consistent level?
Clay Gaspar:
Yes. I would just say directionally, same strategy, so 0% to 5%. When we come off that zero or low end growth, know that it takes time just to move that. So I would say where we stand today consider us on the low end of that 0% to 5% range. As you see in our quarters, we'll have quarters that are a little higher and a little lower, but when you zoom out a little bit and you draw a line through it, we're well inside the strategy, and we hope that, that -- we plan for that to continue into '23.
Scott Coody:
All right. Well, it looks like we're at the end of our -- it looks like we're at the end of our time slot today. We appreciate everyone's interest in Devon. And if there's a few questions we didn't get to, gosh, reach out to the Investor Relations team at any time. Thank you, and have a good day.
Operator:
Thank you all for joining. This now concludes today's call. Please disconnect your lines.
Operator:
Welcome to Devon Energy's First Quarter 2022 Conference Call. At this time all participants are in listen-only mode. This call is being recorded. I'd now like to turn the call over to Scott Coody, Vice President of Investor Relations. Sir, you may begin.
Scott Coody:
Good morning and thank you to everyone for joining us on the call today. Last night, we issued an earnings release and presentation that cover our results for the quarter and updated outlook. Throughout the call today, we will make references to the earnings presentation to support prepared remarks, and these slides can be found on our website. Also joining me on the call today are Rick Muncrief, our President and CEO; Clay Gaspar, our Chief Operating Officer; Jeff Ritenour, our Chief Financial Officer; and a few other members of our senior management team. Comments today will include plans, forecasts and estimates that are forward-looking statements under U.S. securities law. These comments are subject to assumptions, risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ from our forward-looking statements. Please take note of the cautionary language and risk factors provided in our SEC filings and earnings materials. With that, I'll turn the call over to Rick.
Rick Muncrief:
Thank you, Scott. Great to be here this morning. We appreciate everyone taking the time to join us on the call today. As we all know, it's been an extraordinary time in the world, including energy markets over the past few months. While no one could have accurately predicted the timing or the wide-ranging impact of the recent geopolitical events, I can assure you that our team at Devon deeply understands the importance of our role in providing energy security to the U.S. We take pride in providing our great nation, a reliable, safe and cost-advantaged source of energy. The first quarter operational results are yet another example of the resolve and dedication to our mission here at Devon. Our people overcame multiple bouts of extreme winter weather and fought through the challenges of a tight supply chain to not only meet but exceed oil production targets for the quarter. We were also able to keep a lid on inflation and deliver these volumes in a very cost-effective way. This type of tough and resilient performance is what defines us, and I want to congratulate the entire Devon team for getting the job done the right way amid some very challenging conditions. Now turning to Slide 5. The first key message I want to convey is that the execution of our disciplined operating plan resulted in yet another quarter of impressive financial results. This was highlighted by Devon's earnings and cash flow growing at healthy double-digit rates versus last quarter. Our capital was in line with our plan and our free cash flow increased 18% over the prior period. We grew our quarterly dividend to a new record high payout of $1.27 per share. Our buyback program further amplified per share growth and our rock solid investment-grade balance sheet only continued to strengthen. These results continue to demonstrate the power of our disciplined business model, our focus on growing cash margins and the benefits of our differentiated cash return framework. On Slide 6, my second key message today is that we are staying true to the game plan we laid out earlier this year and are well our way to achieving our capital objectives for 2022. With our budgeted activity, Devon is one of the most active operators in the U.S. with 19 operated rigs running, and our team is working hard to maximize our production. As I touched on earlier, in the first quarter, we delivered more volumes to the market than projected in our plan and as strong execution positions us to produce 570,000 to 600,000 BOE per day for the full year of 2022. This level of output makes us one of the largest producers in the U.S., and we're laser focused on reliably delivering these essential barrels to the market in a capital-efficient manner. Now looking beyond the current year, I want to emphasize there's no real change to how we'll manage our business. To ensure we are excellent stewards of capital, we believe that fairly consistent activity through the cycle is the best pathway to optimize efficiencies and returns. To execute on this foundational principle, our disciplined strategy moderates Devon's production growth from zero up to as much as 5% in any given year. Today's heightened pricing from recent geopolitical events does not impact our capital allocation strategy. I can assure you that we will continue to be very thoughtful and closely evaluate how the geopolitical landscape influences market fundamentals. Even with today's higher prices, we simply must consider the continued steep backwardation in strip pricing, the ongoing supply chain challenges and the economic uncertainty resulting from the crisis in Ukraine. The third key point I want to make today is that our financially driven strategy is designed to reward shareholders with higher cash returns in this constructive price environment. This is demonstrated on Slide 8 with the attractive yield of Devon's fixed plus variable dividend policy offers compared to other segments of the equity market. In fact, at today's pricing, our yield is 6x higher than the average company that's represented in the S&P 500 Index. With this market-leading dividend payout, we have seen a tremendous benefit to our shareholder base over the past several quarters by attracting dividend-oriented funds, value investors, pensions, family offices, retail, and we're even beginning to see evidence of growth investors. Furthermore, we've also seen a significant change among the culture of our employees who all own our stock and look forward to that quarterly dividend check just as much as you do. Now another way we're returning cash to shareholders is by repurchasing our stock. As you can see on Slide 9, since we commenced the program last November, we have executed $891 million of share repurchases. This activity has reduced our outstanding share count by 3% at a cost basis that is about 25% below current trading levels. With the Board now expanding our share repurchase program by 25%, up to $2 billion, we can be active buyers of our stock throughout the rest of this year. We will be thoughtful, disciplined and convicted with this buyback activity, but I can assure you that we will take full advantage of any pullbacks and look for opportunities, especially to buy dips. At current levels, we feel that we are fundamentally undervalued and are at the start of a multiple expansion for our equity that should translate into true value creation for shareholders. Turning to Slide 11. My final key message for you today is that we expect a strong financial and operational performance we have been delivering to be sustainable for years to come by confidence comes from the quality of our asset portfolio, the depth of our inventory, the diversity of our product mix and the talented team we have assembled. These competitive advantages are further reinforced by our unwavering commitment to capital discipline through the cycle, the transparent cash return framework we have instituted and the rock-solid balance sheet we possess. Now importantly, the market agrees with this view and has been rewarding us with an increasing share price for the advantaged trades over the past year. However, with many investors that are possibly new to our story, we believe it is still very early in this structural bull market. Devon strong stock performance over the past year is largely a bounce back from the generational lows we experienced during the COVID crisis. This is evidenced by energy's waiting in the S&P 500 Index of only 4% compared to the long-term average of closer to 10%. As you can see on the box to the right, we believe our attractive return profile and valuation compared to the broader market will be another catalyst for our share price appreciation as more and more investors discover Devon's unique investment proposition. Furthermore, with our geographic and commodity mix diversity, we have the ability to benefit on all fronts. And with that, I will now turn the call over to Clay to cover our operational highlights for the past quarter. Clay?
Clay Gaspar:
Thanks, Rick, and thanks to those listening in on our call today. As you can see from the results we issued last night, our team delivered another round of impressive operating results. I want to stress to you that I don't take these regular accomplishments for granted nor should it diminish the valiant work that the team does to make these consistent deliveries look easy. This is a technically challenging business that continues to get harder every day. I believe that our recipe for today's success will continue to deliver in the future. The foundation of that operational success is built on a high-quality portfolio. That foundation is brought to life by incredibly thoughtful and hard-working people. And that team is guided by a business model, as articulated on Slide 3 that provides a steady course for them to drive their efforts towards. Once again, this quarter, strong well productivity across the portfolio drove production to exceed the midpoint of the 1Q guide, while steady operational improvements allowed us to mitigate additional inflationary pressure and keep our cost structure in line with the full year plan. This comprehensive execution across all phases of our operations allowed the higher commodity prices to pass directly through our field level margins and generate the highest level of cash flow for Devon in nearly a decade. Now let's turn to Slide 13, where we can discuss our franchise growth asset in the Delaware Basin. In the first quarter, net production from the Delaware increased 27% on a year-over-year basis. This volume growth was driven by 52 high-impact wells brought online that were diversified across targets in the Avalon, Bone Spring and Wolfcamp formations. In aggregate, these wells achieved average 30-day rates of 2,800 BOE per day with an average oil cut of over 60%. At an average completed well cost of around $7.5 million per well, the overall returns from this program are outstanding with many of these wells on track to pay out in less than a year at today's strip pricing. Turning to Slide 14, another highlight associated with the Delaware activity was the improvement in operational efficiencies and margin expansion we delivered in the quarter. Beginning with the graph on the left, we continue to achieve efficiency gains across each phase of our operations. In fact, in the most recent quarter, our drilled and completed feet per day metrics continued to improve to 85% and 135% respectively from just a few years ago. A great example of this progress is that team drilling our fastest well ever in the basin during the quarter with a spud to rig release time of only 9 days. At this point as a point of comparison, I can remember evaluating the 2015 acquisition that brought WPX into the basin with spud to rig release times of greater than 40 days. Completion efficiencies also steadily advanced with our best results occurring in the Upper Wolfcamp development that reached a record high pace of 2,400 completed feet per day. These accomplishments clearly demonstrate the great work our team along with our service company partners have done to drive improvements across the entire planning and execution of our resource. Directing your attention to the right side of the slide. We also effectively control lease operating expense in the quarter by keeping our per unit LOE costs essentially flat on a year-over-year basis. Our consistent operating plan, leverage of technology, enhance purchasing power and relentless focus on margin allows us to manage and offset rising costs and maximize the value of this production in this inflationary environment. As you can see this strong cost performance resulted in significant margin expansion compared to both the previous quarter and on a year-over-year basis. As I look ahead to maintain this high level performance, a top priority for us is to continue to stay ahead of inflationary pressure and supply chain disruptions. As the market is tightened, we’re experiencing substantial cost increases in raw materials, continued labor shortages, and uncommon scarcity across numerous products and services. We combat these challenges with thoughtful upfront planning, technology, consistent activity levels, and through bulk purchasing power we possessed doing due to our operating scale. Our effectiveness thus far as evidenced by our 1Q upstream capital spending coming in at only 24% of our full year. As we look as our full year guide. As I look forward to the rest of the year, I have confidence in our team and process is to mitigate our exposure to supply chain disruptions and out of out control inflation. We will continue to watch this closely, but if these trends continue, our capital spend could gravitate towards the top half of our guidance range for the year. Turning to Slide 16, a catalyst that will help us combat higher cost environment is the recent commencement of a company owned sand mine on the surface acreage we own in loving county. This mobile sand mine is the first of its kind in the Delaware Basin and is expected display up to 25% of our profit requirements in the basin this year. In addition to providing a certainty of supply, this mine could save us up to 200,000 per well relative to the rising spot prices we are experiencing across the basin as activity picks up and sand supply is tightened. Equally important, this mine also has significant environmental and safety benefits due to the need for fewer trucks on the road. And it eliminates the combustion related emissions associated with drawing the sand that occurs in normal mining processes. Finally, controlling this critical baseline of supply in this market is incredibly valuable to operational certainty. This creative solution to the current supply chain crunch is another benefit from an investment we made of a purchase of 15,000 acres of service land in the Stateline field in 2018. With the early success from this project, we are excited about the potential to expand this concept to other areas of our portfolio with opportunities already identified in both Anadarko and the Powder River Basins. This innovative approach to sourcing sand for our completion operations serves as another great example to our team’s drive for continuous improvement. Moving to Slide 17. While the Delaware Basin is clearly the growth engine for Devon, we also have several high quality assets in the top U.S. resource plays. The teams that support these assets are doing an incredible job of working to drive capital efficiencies, optimized base production, keep operating costs low and steadily improving our environmental footprint. As you can see by the slide by executing at extremely high level on these critical objectives, these assets are on pace to grow cash flow by about 20% this year to around $2.5 billion at today’s pricing. I’m proud of what these assets are delivering, and I appreciate the team’s hard work and efforts that go into fulfilling this important role within our portfolio. And with that, I'll turn the call over to Jeff for financial review. Jeff?
Jeff Ritenour:
Thanks, Clay. I’ll spend my time today covering the key drivers of our strong financial results for the quarter. And I’ll also provide some insights into our outlook for the rest of the year. Beginning with production, our total volumes in the first quarter average 575,000 Boe per day. This performance exceeded the midpoint of our guidance due to another strong quarter of well productivity in the Delaware Basin. We expect first quarter production to be our lowest production quarter of the year due to winter weather downtime that reduce volumes by 15,000 Boe per day. With these curtailments back online and more than 80 development wells scheduled to initiate first production, we expect Devon’s volumes to increase by around 3% to nearly 600,000 Boe per day in the upcoming quarter. Moving to expenses, our largest field level cost category lease operating and transportation cost totaled $7.44 per Boe in the quarter. This strong cost performance was 3% below guidance expectations and allowed us to hold our per unit cost essentially flat versus the year ago quarter. Although we are experiencing moderate pricing pressure across several service and supply cost categories, our team’s proactive planning and thoughtful cost management has mitigated these inflation pressures year-to-date. Overall, this strong cost performance couple with exposure to higher value production expanded Devon’s field level cash margin by 17% quarter-over-quarter to nearly $50 per Boe. We also continue to control corporate cost. In aggregate, G&A and financing costs declined 13% year-over-year due to merger related synergies and the company’s ongoing debt reduction program. These structural improvements will help our margins remain resilient to inflationary pressures as we progress through the year. Current tax adjusted for non-recurring items was 6% during the first quarter. Given, the higher commodity prices we are experiencing, we now expect this to approach 10% for the full year. Cutting to the bottom line, Devon’s core earnings increase for the seventh quarter in a row to $1.88 per share. A key contributor to this growth is lower depreciation rates driven by our capital efficiency improvements over the past several years. This level of earnings momentum translated into operating cash flow of $1.8 billion in the fourth quarter. After funding our disciplined maintenance capital program, we generated $1.3 billion of free cash flow, which is the highest level of free cash flow Devon has ever delivered in a quarter. With this increasing amount of free cash flow, our top priority is to accelerate the return of capital to shareholders. As we’ve communicated in the past, the first call on our excess cash is the funding of our fixed plus variable dividend. Based on our strong first quarter financial performance, we increased our dividend payout by 27% to $1.27 per share. This distribution will be paid at the end of June and includes $0.11 per share benefit from the divestiture contingency payments received earlier in the quarter. Another critical use for our free cash is the execution of our ongoing share repurchase program. Year-to-date, we’ve bought back another $302 million of stock. As Rick touched on earlier, since we initiated the program last November, we’ve retired over 19 million shares driving growth on a per share basis by 3%. With the Board expanding our share repurchase program to $2 billion, we now have just over $1 billion remaining on this authorization and expect to continue to opportunistically buy back stock as we progress through the year. We also have returned value to shareholders through our efforts to improve the balance sheet. In the first quarter, our cash balances increased by more than $350 million to a total of $2.6 billion. With this substantial liquidity and our strong cash flow generating capabilities, we expect Devon’s leverage profile to push towards a zero net debt balance by year end. Even with this advantaged financial position, we are not done making improvement. The next step in our debt reduction plan is to fully retire the $390 million of 2027 notes that become callable in October of this year. We will have the opportunity to retire another $600 million of debt in 2023 with a call of our 2028 notes in June followed by the maturity of another note in August. And lastly, I want to highlight the outstanding returns on capital employed that we’re generating. Based on our outlook for the remainder of the year, I expect our return on capital employed to exceed 40% in 2022. This return profile places us in the upper echelon of the broader market today, providing further evidence that our disciplined cash return strategy is working and delivering differentiated results. With that, I’ll now turn the call back to Rick for some closing comments.
Rick Muncrief:
Thank you, Jeff. Great job. I’d like to close today by reiterating a few things. Number one, the execution of our strategy is delivering impressive financial results you’ve just heard that. Number two, there’s no change or disciplined game plan in 2022. Number three, we are rewarding shareholders with record high cash payouts. And number four, we’re confident we can continually and sustainably deliver this kind of performance for years to come. Lastly, I’d like to reiterate once again, how proud I am of this team, the results they are delivering and the reliable energy we provide our great nation. The energy crisis we’re experiencing in certain regions across the globe is a stark reminder of how critical it is for the U.S. to have a clear and consistent energy policy to ensure our nation’s security and global leadership. Oil and natural gas will remain a core source of energy for decades to come. And this needs to be acknowledged and accepted with any energy transition policy discussions. This transition is not an event in time, but rather a multi-decade endeavor that will require enormous amounts of energy from all available sources to meet the world’s growing demand. Energy policy matters and if we misstep physics and economics will defeat platitudes and untethered ideologies over time. At Devon, we’re committed to doing our part by showing up to work every day to responsibly produce low cost, clean and reliable energy. We’re also dedicated to bettering the communities in which we live and work by supporting investments in public education, healthcare, infrastructure, and by providing high paying jobs to American families. I will now turn the call back over to Scott for Q&A. Thank you.
Scott Coody:
Thanks, Rick. We’ll now open the call to Q&A. Please limit yourself to one question and a follow-up. This will allows us to get to more of your questions on the call today. With that, operator, we’ll take our first question.
Operator:
Thank you. [Operator Instructions] Our first question is from Arun Jayaram of J.P. Morgan. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.
Arun Jayaram:
Yes, good morning. My first question is just on cash return. The updated outlook is for dividends at $4.75 per share on Slide 7. And you highlighted two potential uses of cash, which would be the balance sheet to $1 billion over the next couple of years and then, call it, just over $1 billion left on the buyback authorization. So Rick or Jeff, what – given how you outlined maybe up to around $400 million in cash return through debt reduction this year, is it fair to say that there is enough cash to deliver on the full buyback this year?
Jeff Ritenour:
Hi, Arun. This is Jeff. Yes, the short answer is absolutely, yes. And so as you know well, we continue to kind of evaluate each quarter the financial framework that we've laid out to The Street and obviously discussed it in great detail with our Board. Our first priority is always to make sure we feel comfortable with the leverage in the balance sheet. We're in great shape there. As I mentioned in my prepared remarks, we've got $400 million we'll take out later this year and then another $600 million into next year. And frankly, if you look beyond that in 2024 and 2025, we'll have the option to take down another $1.5 billion of debt if we so choose, as we work our way out into the future. But right now, given the strength that we have with the balance sheet, we're really focused on delivering on that fixed variable dividend commitment that we've made. And then beyond that, we're incredibly excited to buy back our shares given the current level that we see and kind of how we're trading not just versus our peers, but versus the broader market. We think there is a real opportunity to create some real value by buying back our shares. And so you're going to see us continue to lean into that as we work our way through the year and hopefully our track record is a pretty good indicator of our behavior, which is each quarter we've continually added to that and added to the capacity and our ability to go after that.
Arun Jayaram:
Great. And just my follow-up, we have seen over the last week or so, a couple of Permian gas takeaway projects being announced, KMI has gone open season on the pipeline and Whistler reached FID yesterday, I believe. So I was wondering if you could talk about what type of dilutions does Devon have in mind in terms of mitigating the risk of gas takeaway challenges next year just given production growth in the basin.
Jeff Ritenour:
Yes. You bet, Arun. I think you and I discussed this question on the last quarterly call as well. Just as a reminder with – currently our setup and with our production out of the Delaware, about 50% of our current production in the Delaware we have firm takeaway that we own and control and move those volumes out of the Delaware Basin to the Gulf Coast. With the remaining 50%, about half of that, we actually sell to counterparties on term sale deals that actually have firm takeaway capacity as well out of the basin and then the remaining 25% of our production today actually sits there in basin. And so that's the current construct. For that, we do share the concern that the broader market does around takeaway for gas out of the basin as you move into 2023 and 2024. So we are actively evaluating different opportunities to move more of our gas out of basin if the value proposition makes sense as we work our way to that. From a price standpoint, again, 50% of that production is getting Gulf Coast pricing. And then the other 50%, the way we've been trying to manage that and mitigate any impact to differentials is through our hedging program. So you'll see in our hedging disclosure that we outlined last night, we have a significant amount of our production that's in basin, get in-basin pricing. We've actually hedged that for this year and well into 2023.
Arun Jayaram:
Thanks, Jeff.
Operator:
Our next question is from Neal Dingmann of Truist Securities. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.
Neal Dingmann:
Good morning guys. First, Rick, just a question for you is on investor recognition. Specifically, I remember talking to you seem to suggest now that you guys think are being rewarded for the outsized dividends. And I'm just wondering, given how well the stock is done particularly well in 18 months, I know number one in S&P last year. What other areas do you think if you and Clay would talk about it other areas where you still think that investors might not be fully appreciated or appropriately rewarding you all yet?
Rick Muncrief:
Well, I still think – I think we've been rewarded to degree with our dividend framework, that strategy and the execution of that. I believe that investors are going to continue to reward us for the predictability, the transparency of what we're doing. But I still think, fundamentally, that when you look at – and I mentioned this in our prepared remarks is that we're fundamentally undervalued when you start looking at the multiples and the returns people are going to see from us over the next several years. And I think that's something that – it's not just us, but I think it is especially us, but it's not – we're not the only company. I think there needs to be just a fundamental change of thinking with all of us on what our expectations are when we consider our multiples relative to virtually any other sector in the broader market and I think it was a great setup. We're going to – you heard Clay give you some ideas on some – not only ideas, real examples of what we're doing from a creativity standpoint, addressing supply chain issues. You've heard Jeff talk about some things we've done on the gas takeaway. So many of these challenges, we always think that we're going to be a step to – ahead of the competition and it's not only the competition, but issues that are coming our way that could be problematic for us. So I think that all we need to do is just keep being ourselves and keep delivering, being transparent, and I think it's going to work out just fine. Clay, do you want to add anything else?
Clay Gaspar:
Yes. Neal, I would just add to that. I think what is undervalued in the story is the repeatability. This is not just a one quarter kind of splash. I think the business model, the depth of our portfolio, the quality of our portfolio and how those – the business model messes with that portfolio to create a sustainable return to the shareholder in a very tangible way, I think, still comes in time. I remember a little over a year ago as we issued our first variable dividend, there was a very positive reaction, but I think the consensus was, yes, give us a few quarters of repeatability and then we will be able to draw a line through the data points. I think now that line has been pretty established. And the remaining question is how far does it – can we extrapolate that line. And I think what we're continuing to show from our portfolio as we talk more about our ability to deliver in various phases of the cycle, I think that repeatability and longevity will soon come to be valued as well.
Neal Dingmann:
Yes, agree guys. I don't think your low-cost capital is even being considered as well. But lastly, just on the second question, could you talk about maybe asset allocation specifically, Clay, you talked about the repeatability. I'm just wondering given the entire move of the natural gas strip, any consideration of allocated more towards Anadarko? Or still is that just not competing in again? I know how good the Permian returns are. So again, it's a nice sort of challenge to have. I'm just wondering how – any outlook in that over there?
Clay Gaspar:
Yes. Thanks for bringing it up. I'm a big fan of Mid-Con and what the team there is doing. I think we are really significantly moving the derisking of that program. I think we'll continue to see dollars going to it in a very material way as they are this year. I don't see wholesale changes moving away from the Delaware. We have incredible depth of inventory there, and that's always shakes out at the high end. We stress test the portfolio in a number of different ways. We move gas relative to oil and what happens is you may reallocate inside the Delaware, but it continues to drive most of that investment of ballpark 70% to the Delaware Basin. Remember, we have some deeper gas – gassier options inside the Delaware that we barely have scratched the surface on. So it's – there's a lot of significant upside around the portfolio, but I don't see a wholesale change from us being a predominantly Delaware Basin focused organization.
Neal Dingmann:
Well said. Thanks guys.
Clay Gaspar:
Thanks, Neal.
Operator:
Our next question is from Jeanine Wai of Barclays. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.
Jeanine Wai:
Hi, good morning everyone. Thanks for taking our questions.
Rick Muncrief:
Good morning, Jeanine.
Jeanine Wai:
Maybe just following up on some of the – good morning. Maybe just following up on some of the other questions on natural gas. We've heard a lot of talk recently about the role of U.S. natural gas in the global market. You've got 560 a day coming out of the Permian, which is a good amount. You mentioned already that you had 50% of that going to the Gulf Coast and FTE. There's additional FTE that's getting announced. How are you seeing Devon's potential participation in the global gas market? We know it's not a short-term call kind of given LNG export capacity. But your Permian has got a long runway of inventory we heard from a peer this morning that the economics don't really look so good for LNG right now. So just wondering how you're thinking about that for Devon?
Jeff Ritenour:
Hi, Jeanine. This is Jeff. Yes, thanks for the question. Yes, absolutely. You nailed it and highlighted that we've got a significant portfolio of gas, obviously, just under a Bcf a day. So it's something we think a lot about. We do think there's going to be opportunities to capture a better realized price for our gas longer term given the LNG dynamic. So that's something that we are actively evaluating and thinking about. Don't have anything to announce today, but certainly something you'll hear more from us about in the future as we get further into those opportunities and determine what makes the most sense.
Jeanine Wai:
Okay, great. And then maybe our follow-up is on the balance sheet. Jeff, you mentioned getting to zero net debt by year-end if prices hold but you're also not done paying off some debt early in 2022 and 2023. It's been pretty obvious over the past couple of years as a strong balance sheet as a strategic advantage. So is getting to net cash something that you're comfortable with maybe down the line? We have you actually getting there closer to the end of 2024, even with a healthy variable and buyback program. So is net cash either something you're comfortable with? Is that ultimately a goal? Or do you think it's really too inefficient use of the balance sheet? Thank you.
Jeff Ritenour:
Yes, you bet, Jeanine. No. I mean, fundamentally, we want to get more and more cash back to shareholders. I think we've been pretty clear on that with our framework and finding ways to do that, creative ways to do that from quarter-to-quarter. So I think that will continue to be the mantra for us and the behavior that you'll see us pursue. From my seat, I'm never fussed with building cash. So I'm always happy about that and certainly gives us a lot of optionality and flexibility as we execute our game plan. But certainly, we're cautious given the inflationary environment we're in. Sitting on cash is probably not the most productive thing that we could do. So we're always actively evaluating different opportunities in different ways and debating those ways with the Board as to how to get more and more of that cash back to our shareholders. So that – I think you'll continue to see our framework evolve over time and – but certainly will be consistent with what we've outlined in the past.
Jeanine Wai:
Great, thank you.
Operator:
Our next question is from John Freeman of Raymond James. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.
John Freeman:
Good morning everyone.
Rick Muncrief:
Good morning, John.
John Freeman:
The first question, we've been hearing everyone sort of talk about this earnings season, the supply chain issues that everybody is dealing with and sort of the tightness and the service side of things. And I'm just curious if sort of going through this, if it's caused any sort of changes and maybe the way that you all go about either securing raw materials, maybe having to plan further in advance. And with the service side of things, if there's any willingness to maybe look at – maybe longer-term contracts, maybe than you would have in the past given sort of a steady state level of activity that maybe isn't as sensitive to commodity swings that we maybe would have experienced in the past?
Clay Gaspar:
Hi, John. It's Clay. Thanks for the question. Yes, the answer is we do need to think about things differently. I can think of a number of kind of slight modifications to our normal course. And the first one that comes to mind is I love innovation. I love change. I love what's the next, what's the 1.1, what's the 1.2. If that 1.2 is working, how do we get to 1.3? What we've talked about internally here is the necessity out of being a little bit more sticky in our designs. As we think about facilities design is a perfect example, we may have that great next idea. And we just put that into practice and some – a brilliant mind from the field said, hey, if we just did it this way, be even better. In this environment, we need to be a little bit more sticky with our designs. And what I mean by that is working with our supply chain, telegraphing not just the normal 3 months or 6 months lead times but 9 and 12 months. So what you end up seeing is, and you don't see this on the external, but internally, instead of a 1.1, we may wait for a 2.0 innovation to make that next change. That's just a cost of the current situation. The other thing we're being very cognizant about our suppliers and very importantly, our supplier suppliers, one of the great questions I love asking of our partners is what's your potential supply constraint – supply chain constraint and how are you mitigating those? And so as we think about aligning with partners that have more and our service company partners who I'm talking about, as they have more sophisticated kind of vision into their own supply chain, that gives us greater confidence in aligning with them because if they fall short, that means we fall short and the whole thing falls apart. So there are several examples that we think about – as we talk, rig contracts are always a great proxy. As we think about interfacing with our rig contractors, we ask what's the well-to-well contract look like, what's a 6 month, 12 month, 24 months look like? And by talking company to company, you'll kind of get a feel for their – essentially their supply/demand curves internally and we'll make decisions on who do we think can complement one versus another. And what we're actually trying to do is blend a mix of short-term, mid-term and long-term contracts, so that we stay current in the market and also mitigate significant run-ups in a short period. So, there's a lot of things that are probably more normal course. In this part of the supply chain, this kind of hyper concern around supply chain, I think everything has kind of just dialed up to 11 about how we think about these things and really try and protect outside, downside.
John Freeman:
That's great. Thanks, Clay. And if I guess if I just followed up on the operational side, it was nice to see the sand mine come online this quarter and you mentioned that there are some opportunities to duplicate that in the Anadarko and the Powder. I'd be interested sort of on the timing on those two fronts and then as well as if there's sort of an appetite to expand the Delaware sand mine above and beyond sort of what it's doing now is supplying 25% of your needs there?
Clay Gaspar:
Yes. Thanks for the question. This is just an example project of a lot of things we have kind of under the radar that we're working on to take a little bit more control and make sure that we have at least a baseload of supply. Sand is one of those things that nobody worries about until it's an issue and then it's a major, major issue. And so, owning the surface as we did kind of keeping an eye on the horizon, what everyone else is doing, we saw an opportunity here. And it's still – we're still – we've got start-up issues. We're still running this thing, just ramping up the activity. And so, I would say it's a little too early to talk about significant expansion, but really, really pleased about this as a project. As I think about – in the ESG world, I think about projects that are environmentally better, that are safer, that saves money that just absolutely do the right thing and then help us from a supply chain perspective. This was one that checks all the boxes. So really excited about it. As we talk about other basins, it's different in each basin. It's a pretty unique situation for us to own so much surface right in the middle of the heart of one of our biggest fields. We don't have that luxury in other areas. So you look at it a little bit differently, partnering with landowners or even partnering with sand contractors to make sure that we have that kind of this ability very close to our – the heart of our operations and still achieve at least most of the benefits associated with it.
John Freeman:
Thanks, Clay. I appreciate the responses.
Clay Gaspar:
You bet. Thanks, John.
Operator:
Our next question is from Matthew Portillo of TPH. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.
Matthew Portillo:
Good morning all. Thanks for taking my questions. The first one might be for Rick. Rick, you've been able to pull together a very impressive portfolio through M&A transactions at the right time through the cycles over the last couple of years. And I was just curious how you feel about the current M&A market from a bid-ask spread perspective and how that might compare to continuing to return capital via buybacks to shareholders here?
Rick Muncrief:
Yes. Good question, Matt. We talk about this all the time and certainly, Devon will always be a company that stays kind of in the know, so to speak and with what’s in the market doesn’t mean we’ll participate, but I can assure you we’ll have this some kind of an idea of valuations. From our standpoint, nothing really changes. I mean, we have – we’ve always had a real high bar of asset purchases or timing, even of sales. And nothing’s really going to change our framework. I mean, our number one priority is you've heard it, we’ve articulated several times today and that’s returning cash back to shareholders and returning value back to shareholders and really, really excited about our outlook. That’s why we’re so constructive on our share repurchase the program to be honest with you. We just think we’re fundamentally undervalued. And so once again that makes potential acquisitions more challenging because it fundamentally just has to be very accretive to us and we have to feel that it makes sense. And so nothing’s really changed from what you’ve seen over last several years, really.
Matthew Portillo:
Perfect. And then as a follow-up, just on natural gas, again. You obviously have the Dow JV, which has been a homerun. It looks like for both parties and juices the return profile for the Anadarko development program. Just curious more broadly speaking is there an opportunity to potentially form similar JVs going forward to pull forward some of your gassy your inventory and take advantage of the current improvement in the forward curve for both, I guess, natural gas as well as NGLs and some of the lighter streams on the hydrocarbon side.
Rick Muncrief:
Yes. That’s a good question. And it’s always something we could do, Matt, but I can tell you the Dow JV is really a nice setup for us. You mentioned the NGL exposure that is tremendous here in the Anadarko and Clay talks about how the team is getting more and more confident in those returns and certainly on a promoted basis, they’re absolutely phenomenal. They’re just really, really strong. When you start thinking about JVs and other areas where we have exposure to gas, I mean, the first place, we have most exposure to gas would be the Permian. Really. I don’t know that we have a strong appetite to do a lot of gas JVs down there right now. It just doesn’t seem like that makes a lot of sense for us. I think, we’re going to continue to focus on developing the high liquids where you’re 50%, 60% crude oil plus the NGL that’s where you’re going to get some real margins in juice your returns. So I think for us right now we got a great set up. I don’t see us really having a strong appetite with these kind of commodity prices to move into another gassy base and set up some type of a JV there. I don’t think that makes sense. So I think we’ll just really stick with what we have right now makes probably the most sense for us.
Matthew Portillo:
Thank you.
Operator:
Our next question is from Doug Leggate of Bank of America. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.
Doug Leggate:
Thank you. Good morning, everybody.
Rick Muncrief:
Hi, Doug.
Doug Leggate:
If I made one on inventory and Jeff, I got, good morning. One on inventory and Jeff I got to talk about the variable. So I’ll do that a second if you don’t mind. So in your remarks, I think you talked about, you have got deeper gas opportunities in the portfolio. On Slide 20, you show us 2,500 – sorry, 4,000 locations in the current inventory and up to another 2,500. So my question is presumably that includes the gas sensitivity, and I guess the question I’m really trying to get to is that’s about a 15-year inventory, your current pace including the 2,500. How does Devon avoid being a third smaller five years from now on this inventory deck? [ph]
Clay Gaspar:
Hey, Doug, it’s Clay. I’ll take that one. So there’s a couple of things happening in the inventory. And remember we try and show this slide to give confidence around the next running decade. If I had to update the slide today, I’d say I feel very, as confident as I did a year ago in our one, or excuse me, one decade ability to deliver very high returns at very competitive cost structure. If you recall that slide is all based on a 33, excuse me, a $3 and $55 world. And so certainly as that commodity price runs up the whole quantification of those opportunities come up as well. And the quality of those opportunities come up. Now, remember, we’re still looking at other deeper horizons as an example in the Wolfcamp in the Permian that adds to that inventory, the work that we’re doing in the Powder that adds to that inventory. Some of these things that – some are represented in that upside piece, and then there’s additions that we didn’t even consider in the upside. What I would expect as we march through the years that this is kind of a rolling 10 years out in front of us. We’ll certainly look to augment. We’ve done a great, some great things in the path with bolt-on acquisitions, right in the heart of what we’re doing. Our land team continues to do a great job of trades that bolsters these numbers as well. And then of course, the kind of little E exploration kind of under positions that we already own also adds to these positions. So it’s a moving target, certainly commodity price helps. We’re not just relying on higher commodity price to add to the quantity and the quality of this portfolio look.
Doug Leggate:
So just a clarification Clay. So the 2,500 additional, my read of it, that was the impact of the higher commodity deck. So are you suggesting there’s upside to the 6,500?
Clay Gaspar:
Yes, there is additional upside.
Doug Leggate:
Okay. Thank you. My follow-up Rick is, is probably for you or for Jeff. But there’s been a lot of comment around you think your stock is undervalued. You’re getting a lot of help from gas today, obviously, and there’s other things going on but the whole sector. But your share price is pretty much flat since your oil price stock going up at the beginning of March. The renewable dividend – or the variable dividend will be paid out on the 30th of June. So that’s coming off your balance sheet, which is net negative for your equity, and you increased by 25%, but your variable dividend is even more than that. So my question is how does the commentary around how cheap our stock is dive with the continued commitment for an outsized variable distribution, which erodes you equity value, as opposed to really stepping into the buyback program?
Rick Muncrief:
I think just fundamentally, all the questions I think, some investors grapple with it, and quite honestly, we’ve debated over the last 12, 15 months is it either or we felt like most of the investors we felt like were giving us very, very candid feedback. They preferred that return of cash today rather than share repurchase. As we’ve gotten into it, Doug, I can tell you that we’ve become more and more convicted. We continue to debate this with internally here and with our Board. And we just feel fundamentally that the curve is heavily backwardated, but it’s been wrong. And that’s why you continue to see it come up. And this is not just the Ukraine, the horrible situation Ukraine driving. It certainly is we all know that it’s a factor, but we have become more and more convicted that share repurchases make a lot of sense for us. And – but it’s not just an either or it’s – we’re going to do both. And matter of fact, we’re not just doing both, we’re doing the third thing and that’s aggressively paying down debt. So all of this creates value to our shareholders. It makes the equity, I think, more, more valuable. And you start looking at the disciplined we’re employing. When I look at the equity performance, yes, it’s been great what we have done over the last 12 months. We’re excited about that. But I still think that at the end of the day, the story has just begun with energy. And I think we continue to get – that’s what makes a market, right? You have people that push back on thesis and people that push back on perspectives, but ours was that if we, it goes all the way back to the fundamentals of the merger that we announced 18 months ago. We felt like that it would make a lot of sense. We give us a lot of lot of runway to implement a variable dividend, which we both companies were very big fans of. But we were able to accelerate that. And as things that we saw the synergies, we saw the opportunity to set up for the continued execution, managing through these supply chains. And that’s why we just feel that fundamentally our equity is undervalued and that’s – that gives us the conviction to go out and buy it back. And so we’re going to have a multi-prong attack, and I think that’s the best thing we can do as a management team I believe.
Doug Leggate:
I appreciate the answer, Rick. I guess what I’m saying is I think we prefer to see more of the permanence than the transitory stuff. But I will say one last thing. I think we’re all going to be calling [ph] you on platitudes and untethered ideologies. I love that expression. And [indiscernible] I think. Thanks so much.
Rick Muncrief:
Thanks. Thank you, Doug. Take care. Talk soon.
Operator:
Our next question is from Charles Meade of Johnson Rice. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.
Charles Meade:
Good morning, Rick, Clay and Jeff, and the rest of the Devon folks on the call.
Rick Muncrief:
Hi, Charles.
Charles Meade:
My first question, this would be for you, perhaps for Clay. Thank you. Could you contrast for us the different ways you may be experiencing inflation across the Rockies, Mid-Con, Permian [indiscernible] Gulf Coast and maybe offer a thought or two on what bottleneck may be yet to emerge for you guys?
Rick Muncrief:
Clay, you want to answer that?
Clay Gaspar:
Sure. Happy to, yes. I think of inflation, we use it kind of as a holistic term. But it supply chain and importantly it’s people and any one of those can manifest in a headwind to our operations. And so kind of breaking those apart a little bit, thinking about supply chain, excuse me, let’s start with inflation. Just as a sense of rising prices, that’s one component of inflation. That’s actually one of the easier ones to manage. It’s a little – you can telegraph it a little bit more. You can mitigate with contracting alignment with suppliers. That’s pretty manageable in a sense. The harder part of inflation and I’ll stick to kind of that piece of it is maybe there’s a time component. If you’re having to go to your third or fourth or fifth favorite supplier, maybe there is a drag on maybe when that well starts up. That’s an inflationary component that is really hard to mitigate. Maybe there’s some standby time or you’re reaching for that, your favorite supplier, and they’re always available and no longer available. How do you bake that in into your time component of inflation? There’s one other component of inflation that can get you, and you think about this is more people related. It’s the newness or the dilution of the talent. When we’re contracting, we get a really run up in some of the best people in the industry. Most experience, you might have a day company person, and a night company person that are both 30-year people that are exceptionally good at what they do as that activity picks up. That dilution of talent also can cause a little bit of drag. We anticipate these things, we work with this. We always look for a safety potential and make sure that we mitigate around that. Turning to supply chain. This one is usually a little bit more of a contracting strategy. We think about the big exposure items of hydraulic horsepower, rigs, water, sand, steel, that covers a huge portion of the cost structure. And as a supply chain organization, they really focus on the long-term view of that. What’s getting us and what’s unique about this opportunity right now is it could be the transformer. It could be the display on some piece of equipment that is not, it is absolutely inconsequential from a cost standpoint, but is just as critical path to any one of those big ticket items, if we don’t have them. And so we are certainly very aware of that. There’s things that have popped up that we try and stay ahead of. We’ve built a little more inventory both on our own ticket and with our suppliers, trying to make sure that we’re staying ahead. Like I said in the question I answered earlier asking our suppliers about their suppliers and kind of continuing to go down that line and hunt out where those potential constraints are. And then finally, a little bit more on the people. People could be truckers. It could be the quality, the quantity of the individuals we have out on location. Again, if you can’t truck, the equipment to location, you can’t do what you do. So it’s a complicated business. I commend the team especially our supply chain organization that’s thinking so deeply about this. Our operations team that are working and really… [Technical Difficulty] guides for 2Q, but what was Devon’s experience like in that as that storm blew through and is that state average representative for what you guys experienced or how was – how maybe was it different?
Rick Muncrief:
Yes, I’ll rewind back just a little bit as we talk about weather, I really didn’t get to talk about it earlier. But in the first quarter, we had four weather events blow through the teams getting better and better overall. This was probably more Mid-Con and Permian related that manifested during the course of the first quarter to respond to that, to mitigate, make sure we’re avoiding any safety events, incidents, environmental incidents, protecting the wells and then getting them back on. And that was all baked into the first quarter results. We did have some downtime associated with that. As you mentioned in the second quarter, namely in the month of April, we had some fairly late spring, massive snow events, mainly in Williston, but it also hit a little bit into Wyoming, our Powder as well. We had the ranges I’ve heard from the field were 26 to 40 inches of snow over the course of just a couple of days. We had people completely snowed in to their house, not even able to get to the field to check on wells. The good news is with our modern operations, we’re able to remotely monitor wells, but you can only do that to a certain degree. We can remote shut in wells. We have cameras on location, so you can visually see if anything’s going on, except if the whole field’s covered in feet of snow. Then it’s hard to see even what’s going on. So we did have some downtime, very significant. We had a – the weather event I mentioned, and then the next weekend, we had to follow on another six inches of snow followed with some rain in Williston, a larger snow event in Wyoming. And I can tell you, the teams did a great job, no safety incidents to speak of, no significant environmental events to mention. We did have a production impact. And as you mentioned, it was – it’s all baked in. The 80%, I think that’s way overstated for our operations. I don’t know what the source of that information was, but we baked our production forecast in and accounting for all of this weather. And just great work by the team in our field. I mean, I can’t say enough about how great these guys are.
Scott Coody:
All right. I see that we’re at the top of the hour. We appreciate everyone’s interest in Devon today. And if you have any further questions, please don’t hesitate to reach out to the Investor Relations team at any time. Thank you and have a good day.
Operator:
This concludes today’s call. Thank you for joining. You may now disconnect your line.
Operator:
Welcome to Devon Energy's Fourth Quarter and Year-end 2021 Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. This call is being recorded. I'd now like to turn the call over to Scott Coody, Vice President, Investor Relations. Sir, you may begin.
Scott Coody:
Good morning, and thank you to everyone for joining us on the call today. Last night, we issued an earnings release and presentation that cover our results for the year and outlook in 2022. Throughout the call today, we'll make references to the earnings presentation to support prepared remarks, and these slides can be found on our website. Also joining me on the call today are Rick Muncrief, our President and CEO; Clay Gaspar, our Chief Operating Officer; Jeff Ritenour, our Chief Financial Officer; and a few other members of our senior management team. Comments today include -- will include plans, forecasts and estimates that are forward-looking statements under U.S. securities law. These comments are subject to assumptions, risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ from our forward-looking statements. Please take note of the cautionary language and risk factors provided in our SEC filings and earnings materials. With that, I'll turn the call over to Rick.
Rick Muncrief:
Thank you, Scott. It’s great to be here this morning. We appreciate everyone taking the time to join us on the call today. For Devon Energy, 2021 was a transformational year that can best be defined by our willingness to be a first mover and pursue bold strategic consolidation. Our operational excellence and unyielding commitment to capital discipline and the groundbreaking deployment of our industry-leading cash return business model underpinned by our fixed plus variable dividend. As you can see on slide five of our presentation, an event that was foundational for our success in 2021 was a merger of equals between Devon and WPX have brought together two highly compatible organizations with complementary assets to create an elite E&P company. This transaction was perfectly timed at the very bottom of the cycle and set the groundwork for Devon's significant value creation during the year. With this advantaged platform, we executed on our Delaware-focused operating plan and captured cost synergies that resulted in $600 million of annual cash flow improvements. These margin expansion efforts, combined with a disciplined capital allocation framework that prioritize value over volumes, resulted in Devon generating the highest level of free cash flow in our prestigious 50-year history. With this powerful stream of free cash flow, we delivered on exactly what our shareholder-friendly business model was designed for, and that is to lead the industry in cash returns. As you can see on the graphic, we rewarded shareholders with outsized dividends, opportunistic share buybacks, and we took meaningful steps to strengthen our investment-grade balance sheet. This disciplined execution was rewarded by the market, with our share price achieving the highest return of any stock in the entire S&P 500 Index during 2021. I am so very proud of what we accomplished, and I want to extend my sincerest gratitude to everyone involved. Our team comprehensively executed on the tenets of our strategy, while responsibly providing our nation with a low-cost and reliable energy source that is the lifeblood of our modern economy. Now turning to slide six. While 2021 was a record-setting year for Devon, the setup for 2022 is even better. With the operational momentum we have established, we have designed a capital program to efficiently sustain production at a ultra-low WTI breakeven funding level of around $30 a barrel. Combined with the full benefit of merger-related cost synergies in a vastly improved hedge book, we're positioned to deliver free cash flow growth of more than 70% compared to 2021. As you see on the graph, this strong outlook translates into a free cash flow yield of 14%, assuming an $85 WTI price. Clay will run through the details of our operating plan later, but simply put, we expect 2022 to be another great year for Devon. Turning your attention to slide 7. With this significant stream of free cash flow, the top priority for our free cash flow is the funding of our fixed plus variable dividend. This cash return strategy is a staple of our capital allocation process, allowing us to return meaningful and appropriate amounts of cash to shareholders across a variety of market conditions. With this differentiated framework, we've increased Devon's dividend payout for five consecutive quarters. And in aggregate, we paid out $1.3 billion of dividends in 2021, which is a per share increase of roughly 2 times that of 2020. Importantly, we expect our dividend growth story to only strengthen in 2022. As you can see on the bar chart, we are on pace to essentially double our dividend again in the upcoming year, which equates to around 8%. I would like to highlight that this attractive yield includes a substantial increase to our fixed dividend that we announced last night. This 45% increase in the fixed dividend reflects the confidence we have in our underlying business and financial performance as we head into 2022. Now on slide 9, I want to briefly showcase how our unique dividend policy offers a quite compelling alternative for yield-seeking investors. To demonstrate this point, we've included a simple comparison of our estimated dividend yield in 2022 compared to other commonly referenced yields in the financial markets. As you can see, Devon's yield of 8% is approximately 6 times higher than the S&P 500 index and well in excess of the prevailing interest rate you can get from 10-year treasury. While I fully acknowledge that these three instruments possess different risk and volatility characteristics, I believe it's important to highlight the outsized income that Devon offers in this yield-starved world we live in today. On slide 10, in addition to our market-leading dividend payout, we're also excited to announce that we are increasing our share repurchase authorization by 60% to $1.6 billion. At a multiple of less than 5 times cash flow, we believe our business trades at a substantial discount to the intrinsic value, especially given the structural improvements we've made to expand margins and returns. Given this favorable setup, we have put our money where our mouth is by aggressively repurchasing $589 million of shares just in the fourth quarter alone. With the Board expanding the capacity of our repurchase program, we will continue to be opportunistic buyers of our stock throughout the upcoming year. And lastly, of the diagram on slide 12, I believe, does a great job of summarizing what we've created here at Devon. We've assembled a high-quality asset portfolio and a team that is working incredibly hard to deliver on our commitment to expand margins and deliver growth and free cash flow, accelerate our cash returns with our market-leading dividend payout, enhanced per share growth with opportunistic buybacks and take consistent and meaningful steps to further enhance our financial strength. While 2021 was a record year, we're only getting started. At Devon, we have the right mix of assets, proven management, the right team and a shareholder business -- a shareholder-friendly business model, designed to continue to lead the energy industry and capital disciplines and cash returns. And with that, I'll now turn to Clay for the call to continue and provide an overview of our recent operational results and upcoming capital plan. Clay?
Clay Gaspar:
Thanks, Rick, and good morning, everyone. As Rick touched on, 2021 was a pivotal year for Devon that demonstrated the power of our asset portfolio and the capabilities of our talented organization. Across the portfolio, our team delivered results that exceeded production and capital efficiency targets, while continuing to drive down per unit operating costs and improving margin results matter. And while I don't take any of these accomplishments lightly, I'm equally proud of the way that we were able to accomplish these financial metrics. Overcoming the challenges of the merger, pandemic and supply chain issues, we built a unified culture, took many best practices from both legacy companies, and we're now poised for further leverage of those collective wins. Now let's turn to Slide 14, and we'll see how 2022 capital plan is designed to build upon the momentum that we've established this past year. The first key point that is there is no change to the upstream capital budget of $1.9 billion to $2.2 billion as we disclosed last quarter. While inflation is an absolute reality, our teams have done a good job of working with our service companies, mitigating escalations where we can and quantifying the remaining impact of our forecast. The great thing about a cyclical business is that if you're paying attention, you should have a pretty good idea of what the most critical things to focus on in anticipation of the next phase. At this point in the cycle, we're focused on listening to our service company partners and helping them help us be successful. In this very tight supply chain market, the key phrase we hear is predictable and reliable. You will notice that our '22 program looks quite a bit like our '21 program. This has allowed us to telegraph to our service companies, midstream partners and other key stakeholders to expect more of the same. That predictability allows them to plan their own supply chain work and the reliability allows them to know that we're going to do what we say we're going to do. Relationships are one of our core values at Devon. And this listening and working with our critical partners is an example of that value in action. The relatively steady level of activity in '22 is projected to sustain our production throughout the year ranging from 570,000 to 600,000 BOE per day. Now let's turn to Slide 15, where we can discuss our Delaware Basin asset, which we believe is the most capitally efficient resource in North America. During 2021, we had great success with our capital program that resulted in a production growth rate of 34% compared to our first quarter '21. This high margin growth was driven by consistent execution and outstanding well productivity that was headlined by several memorable projects such as Danger Noodle, Boundary Raider and Thistle Cobra to name a few. Each of these prolific projects eclipsed 30-day rates of more than 5,000 BOE per day on a per well basis, exhibiting the world-class reservoir potential that resides in the Delaware Basin. It's important to note that strong volume performance in 2021 was paired with excellent capital efficiency and substantial additions to our proved reserves. While I would never point to a single year of reserves booking as the measure of success, with consistent and reasonable conservative booking processes, which we have, it can provide insight into the quality of the underlying assets. At year-end, our proved reserves in the Delaware increased 18% on a pro forma basis. And these reserve additions replaced more than 200% of what we produced during the year. I find it especially impressive that our team added these reserves at an ultra low F&D cost of only $5 per Boe. This result is just another example how advantage and sustainable our resources in the Delaware Basin. Turning your attention to the map on the right, you can expect more of the same from us in 2022. We have a great slate of projects lined up to execute on. And once again, most of our program will consist of the high impact opportunities, focused on developing Upper Wolfcamp and Bone Spring zones and, to a lesser degree, the -- excuse me, the Avalon targets as well. To execute on this plan, we expect to run 14 rigs and 4 frac crews during the year. This capital activity will be diversified across our acreage footprint with sweet spots in Southern Lea and Eddy Counties and Stateline receiving most of the funding. Not only with this level of activity continue to grow Delaware production in 2022, but the benefits of our operating scale and best practices from the merger integration, we are well positioned to continue to improve our execution capabilities. Let's turn to slide 16, where we have displayed our strong track record of continuous improvement. As you can see on the slide, with the efficiencies captured in the Delaware, the team has essentially doubled the productivity of our rig and frac equipment compared to just a few years ago. The operational improvements have also meaningfully reduced our cost over time to about $550 per lateral foot in 2021, which competes very well with anyone out there. As I look ahead to 2022, I expect our operational performance to continue to improve. Our team consistently is identifying new ways to leverage technology, operational breakthroughs and industry best practices. Inflationary pressure and supply chain disruptions are a reality. Based on today's industry activity and commodity price projections, we've baked in around 15% higher costs than we saw in 2021. We have been and continue to be focused on consistency, planning and staying out in front ahead of these -- and reacting to any unforeseen issues. This work will be even more critical as the market continues to tighten. On slide 17, the next area I want to showcase is the momentum we're building in the Anadarko Basin, where we have a concentrated 300,000 net acre position in the liquids-rich window of the play. With the benefits of our $100 million Dow JV carry, we drilled over 30 wells in 2021 and commenced the first production on 16 of those wells during the year. As you can see on the charts on the right, the initial capital efficiency is excellent. With the benefit of state-of-the-art completion designs, and appropriately up-spaced developments, per well capital costs have decreased by 25% versus legacy activity and well productivity to-date has exceeded the type curve expectations by 35%. With the strong execution, the carried returns we're seeing from this activity will compete for capital with any asset in our portfolio. Given the success, we've elected to step up activity in the Anadarko Basin to three rigs in 2022. This program will result in around 40 new wells coming online in 2022, allowing us to maintain steady production profile throughout the year and harvest significant amounts of free cash flow. Now let's turn to slide 18, and I'll cover a few points on the other assets that are creating huge value while flying under the radar. Collectively, these assets generated more than $1 billion of free cash flow in 2021 and we're on pace to produce a similar amount of free cash flow in 2022. Williston remains some of the best returns in our portfolio. The team has continued to unlock additional locations and has leveraged company best practices to significantly improve our ESG footprint. Our Eagle Ford asset continues to deliver solid returns. The team is doing some very exciting work to unlock additional locations and a very significant refrac potential. The Powder is the basin with the most upside yet to unlock. Our team is making great progress in that regard by driving laterals longer to three miles and rebooting the stimulation design, we're seeing very encouraging well results. I'm proud of what these assets are delivering, and I appreciate and effort that goes into fulfilling this important role within our portfolio. Finally, let's turn to slide 19, where I'm excited to share some of our progress on the ESG front. As many of you are aware, we set aggressive emissions reductions targets last year that covered a myriad of near, mid and long-term priorities. In addition to our -- to ensure organizational alignment, we directly tied progress on these targets to our annual compensation program. We've also dedicated a Board Committee to engage in our ESG goal setting process, performance and reporting. Since the announcement of these environmental targets, we've taken immediate action and delivered results. We do not have finalized figures yet for this past year, but I can tell you our Scope 1 and 2, GHG emissions will improve roughly by 20% in 2021 versus our 2019 baseline, well ahead of that stated goals from this past summer. Two of the key successes on reducing overall emissions is reducing methane emissions and reducing flaring. In 2020, we reduced methane emissions by 47%, and we reduced flaring by 33%. I expect this positive rate of change to continue. Looking specifically at 2022, we have many visible catalysts that will drive important results such as advancements in leak detection technologies, improved facility design, facility retrofits, wide-scale deployment of air-driven pneumatic controllers and electrification of select field operations. I believe that it's also important to point out that these efforts are focused on changes that will not only improve our ESG metrics, but will also improve our overall operations. By focusing on these operational wins, we further align our organizational focus and excitement around ESG improvement. And with that, I'll turn the call over to Jeff for the financial review. Jeff?
Jeff Ritenour:
Thanks, Clay. My comments today will be focused on the key drivers of our financial results in 2021 and also provide some insights into our 2022 outlook. Beginning with production, our total volumes in the fourth quarter averaged 611,000 Boe per day, exceeding the midpoint of our guidance by 3%. This production beat was across all products, with the most significant outperformance coming from NGLs where processing economics were exceptionally strong during the quarter. In the upcoming quarter, we expect production to approximate 570,000 Boe's per day. We expect this to be our lowest production quarter of the year due to winter weather downtime that reduced volumes by about 15,000 Boe per day. All winter-related curtailments are back online, and we expect no impact to our full year production estimates. Moving to expenses. Our lease operating and GP&T cost exited 2021 at a rate of $7.25 per barrel. This result represents a 1% decline compared to where we started the year, but was slightly elevated compared to our forecast. As you might expect, we experienced moderate pricing pressures across several service and supply cost categories in the quarter. And we also incurred a non-recurring charge to GP&T expense in the Eagle Ford. Another key variance was higher work-over activity, which contributed to our strong production results in the quarter. Overall, our exposure to higher value production, coupled with a low cost structure, expanded Devon's field level cash margin to $42.37 per barrel, a 14% increase from last quarter. Jumping to corporate cost, we did a great job of improving this expense category in 2021. In aggregate, G&A and financing costs declined 31% year-over-year on a pro forma basis due to lower personnel costs and the company's ongoing debt reduction program. These structural improvements will carry over into 2022 and act as an ongoing annuity for years to come. Cutting to the bottom line, Devon's core earnings increased for the sixth quarter in a row to $1.39 per share. This level of earnings momentum translated into operating cash flow of $1.6 billion in the fourth quarter. After funding our disciplined maintenance capital program, we generated $1.1 billion of free cash flow in the quarter. This represents growth in free cash flow of more than 400% compared to where we started the year after closing the WPX merger. The top priority of our free cash flow is the funding of our dividend. As Rick covered earlier, in conjunction with our earnings report, we announced a fixed plus variable dividend of $1 per share that is payable in March and includes the benefit of our 45% raise to the fixed dividend. This payout represents the highest quarterly payout in Devon's history. Another avenue that we're returning cash to shareholders through is the execution of our share repurchase program. Since we initiated the program in November, we're off to a great start by repurchasing 14 million shares at a total cost of $589 million. This equates to an average price of $42 per share, which is around a 25% discount to our current trading levels. With the Board expanding our share repurchase program to $1.6 billion, we now have roughly $1 billion remaining on this authorization, and we expect to continue to opportunistically buy back stock in 2022. We also have returned value to shareholders through our efforts to reduce debt and improve the balance sheet. In 2021, we made significant progress strengthening Devon's financial position by retiring more than $1.2 billion of outstanding notes and we achieved our net debt-to-EBITDA target ahead of plan, exiting the year at less than a turn of leverage. At today's pricing, we expect our leverage to trend even lower in 2022, pushing towards a zero net debt balance by year-end. And lastly, I do want to highlight that our disciplined strategy is also resulting in excellent returns on capital employed. In 2021, we achieved a 20% return on capital employed and we are positioned for this measure to substantially increase in 2022. The strong rate of change we are delivering with ROCE, combined with our cash return framework, further differentiates Devon versus other opportunities in the market today. With that, I'll now turn the call back to Rick for some closing comments.
Rick Muncrief:
Thank you, Jeff. Great job. In summary, 2021 was a banner year for Devon. We delivered on exactly everything we promised and did some. Now, as we shift our focus to the upcoming year, I want to be clear that there is no change to our cash return playbook. It will be more of the same. We will be relentlessly focused on delivering high returns on capital employed, margin expansion, accelerating free cash flow growth and returning excess cash to shareholders. Our talented team here at Devon takes great pride in leading the industry in this disciplined operating framework. And when coupled with the development and deployment of new technologies, simply put, we are very energized and ready to roll in 2022. I sincerely hope, you can now appreciate how we've delivered on the vision that Dave Hager and I, along with our respective teams, had when we announced our merger in September of 2020. We wanted to create something truly special, and we feel that we've done just that. I will now turn the call back over to Scott for Q&A.
Scott Coody:
Thanks, Rick. We'll now open the call to Q&A. Please limit yourself to one question and a follow-up. This allows us to get to more of your questions on the call today. With that, operator, we’ll take our first question.
Operator:
Thank you. [Operator Instructions] Our first question is from Arun Jayaram with JPMorgan. Your line is open.
Arun Jayaram:
Yes, good morning. Perhaps for Jeff, I wanted to get more insights on the base dividend increase and how we should think about the mix of base and variable dividends in future periods? Because I believe the historically, you guys have targeted about 10% of CSO call it a mid-cycle price for the base dividend. So I want to get some thoughts on how that's evolving over time.
Jeff Ritenour:
Yes, you bet, Arun. Thanks for the question. You're spot on. Historically, the way we thought about that is kind of on a normalizing -- normalized price debt, kind of a mid-cycle price deck. We've targeted kind of a 5% to 10% payout ratio of our cash flow for that fixed dividend. So as we discuss the fixed dividend raise that we announced this quarter with our Board, as we did the math and work through our model, we kind of centered in around the kind of 7.5% payout ratio, again, specific to mid-cycle pricing. So as we move forward into the future, I think that's an area where you're going to continue to see us debate that with the Board. And frankly, I think there's a high likelihood that we'll have the opportunity to grow that fixed dividend further as we move forward. And so it will likely gravitate towards the higher end of that payout range, somewhere closer to 10% as we walk it forward.
Arun Jayaram:
Great. And my follow-up is I had a question on just the Permian in general. What are the potential headwinds for the industry in terms of future growth will be gas takeaway which I think today stands around 17 Bcf a day. You got to grew your Permian production by over 30% from 1Q and your net production is approaching 600 million a day. So I just wanted to see how is Devon positioned to manage this tightness that could occur in late 2023 or early 2024 with Permian takeaway?
Jeff Ritenour:
Yes, you bet, Arun, this is Jeff again. And you'll remember some of this from a few years ago, the last time we had tightness in the Permian Basin how we're set up and how we've managed it. We've also, subsequent to WPX merger, it's accrued to Devon's benefit the position that they had in place, the legacy position that they had in the place in the Permian. So today, where we sit is we have firm takeaway from the basin for our gas for the majority of the gas production that we have in basin. With the remainder that stays in basin, you'll recall, Arun, we do term sales for the large part with pretty large counterparties, which also have firm takeaway from the basin. So that combined, we feel really good about our ability to move the molecules out of the basin and don't foresee any issues with getting backed up and shutting in wells. I'll add to that, we're also evaluating the participation in a couple of the new projects that have been discussed. And as you're well aware, could probably come online in that '23, '24 time frame. So feel really good about being able to move the molecules and get them taken away from the basin. And then beyond just the takeaway, what I would highlight is, obviously, we do have some price exposure in basin for the sales that we do. And in that case, we've utilized basis swaps on just over 50% of our volumes there to help us manage that price exposure. So, our marketing team has done a great job kind of setting us up, making sure that we have the ability to move the molecules and then going even a step further and helping us mitigate the price pressure we're likely to see as it's going to be volatile as the market kind of evolves over the next couple of years.
Arun Jayaram:
Thanks, Jeff.
Jeff Ritenour:
You bet.
Operator:
The next question is from Neil Mehta with Goldman Sachs. Your line is open.
Neil Mehta:
Thank you. And let me first by saying, Rick, congratulations on an unbelievable 2021 being the best performer in the S&P is no joke, so well done.
Rick Muncrief:
Thank you, Neil.
Neil Mehta:
Look, my first question is about growth in the Permian. And as one of the leaders in the region, we love your perspective, are you seeing any warning signs of US growth accelerating prematurely as we still haven't gotten clarity around Iran, or do you think the discipline is holding? And are you not concerned about growth in the Permian relative to the global oil market? And what would it take for Devon to change its own strategy around prioritizing free cash flow over growth?
Rick Muncrief:
Yes, Arun -- yes, Neil, sorry, that's a good question. When I think about the -- when I think about the Permian, you are seeing continued growth there. I think most of the growth right now has been driven by many of the private operators. And recently, you saw Exxon and Chevron talk about ramping some volumes up. I believe they're probably going to be working down their DUC inventory to some degree. But they've not invested as much as they traditionally had out over the two or three prior years. So, I do think you're going to continue to see growth in the Permian. I don't think it's unhealthy. I don't think it's out of -- it probably is going to be the only place in the US you truly even see much growth, to be honest with you, is the way I think we're looking at it. As far as the lack of clarity around Iran, I think that's a good point you make. It's one of the reasons I believe that the market continues to be backward dated. If you look at the -- at the curve, it is such steep backwardation. And that's the thing that -- I'll just say, we really look at a lot is when you start thinking about activity down the road. So that's why we've been so focused on remaining very, very disciplined, keeping our budgeted volumes flat, operating in a maintenance capital standpoint. I think that's the right answer until we get some real clear indication that's otherwise. So Clay, you may add anything to that?
Clay Gaspar:
Yes, I appreciate that, Rick. What I was just going to add, remember that, we are growing in the Permian. At the same time, we're keeping our overall production flat. And I think it's kind of -- you have to watch the headlines and what's the overall trend. I believe that's the right mix for us with our assets, with our portfolio, specific to Permian growth because that's definitely the hot basin. That's where the marginal barrel comes from. There are natural governors. I'm speaking kind of from an operations point of view to prohibit unbridled growth. I think about the supply chain things that obviously peppered throughout my earlier comments, there's also the takeaway issues as Jeff was just talking about. There are some things that I think will keep that growth in-check. Now all that said, certainly, I would expect continued growth in the Permian to offset declines from the other areas. Overall, we believe -- we're staying with overall maintenance capital, we believe, is the right approach for our shareholders, for our organization, and it seems to be working quite well so far. Thanks Neil.
Neil Mehta:
Thank you. And a follow-up is your perspective on the A&D markets. When the WPX transaction was consummated, oil prices were half of where they are right now. So Rick, I'd be curious on your perspective, if you see this more as a seller's market than a buyer's market until we get more commodity clarity?
Rick Muncrief:
Well, that's always an interesting question. And today, once again, I'll go back to the curve. If you're a seller, I mean, you're wanting to sell at today's prices. If you're a buyer, you have to honor that curve. And that's -- it's kind of an interesting time. So that's why as we talked here among this management team and with our Board, we felt like the clear thing for us to do is to double down on our share repurchases as we think about assets that might be out in the market, gosh, we just don't see anything. It really competes with what we have. And so that's why we've doubled down on it. So I don't know how to answer that question, Neil. It's -- if you're a seller right now, it could be a nice time to be selling if you can find someone that will honor today's commodity price and are truly convinced that we're going to see crude continue to go up even further. There are people certainly predicting that, but that's not what the curve is illustrating today.
Neil Mehta:
Thank you, Rick.
Operator:
The next question is from Doug Leggate with Bank of America. Your line is open.
Doug Leggate:
Thanks. Good morning, still morning. Hi good morning everybody. I guess this is for Jeff probably. I want to ask you about the breakeven, Jeff. You're still showing a $30 price, but a $2.50 gas price. And, obviously, there is a cash tax evolution going on. So I wonder if you could walk us through how -- what's the evolution of the oil price breakeven? And to be clear, what I'm really driving at here is it seems to me that your gas price is probably a bit low, but your cash tax is helping you right now. Do those kind of offset each other as we go forward?
Jeff Ritenour:
Yeah, Doug, you're thinking about it right. Spot on. As, obviously, with the assumptions that we made in the breakeven that we disclosed in the deck, frankly, gas prices are higher than that today, and NGL prices are in that today. So I would tell you, when I do the back of the envelope math, set aside the cash taxes piece for a minute, we're actually frankly below that $30 level. And certainly, that's all pre-hedges, right? So you factor in hedges, you factor in a different price environment, that changes a little bit. But ballpark, we have a right around that $30 a barrel breakeven price. Your point on cash taxes is important going forward, and we disclosed that back in the fall, and reaffirmed our guidance for that for 2022 as it relates to the cash taxes. We think that the cash tax rate is probably going to be mid-single digits, somewhere 5%, 6%, 7%, depending on how prices shake out for the year. And that's on our business, that's, call it, $300 million to $400 million of cash taxes in the year. And so that again, when we produce 100 million barrels of oil, that adds a couple of dollars per barrel to that breakeven prices, as you alluded to.
Doug Leggate:
So on a normalized basis, Jeff, I guess post-2022 I am assuming your NOLs are pretty much done. So -- that's what I was getting at was if we use, let's say, the forward strip for gas, does that offset the cash tax leaving you pretty much still around $30?
Jeff Ritenour:
Yeah, you bet. And so just to give you the full picture on the cash taxes and NOL you're spot on. We're -- we'll walk into this year with about $3.4 billion of NOLs available to us. We'll use up about, call it, two-thirds of that here in 2022, which is going to allow us to deliver that mid single-digit cash tax rate that I mentioned. Going forward, that will evolve as you would expect, presuming that prices obviously stay at this level or move higher, your total tax rate kind of flips and you'll probably become two-thirds of that will be cash taxes and then the remaining one-third will be your deferred tax piece. So somewhere in the ballpark of a cash tax rate of maybe 15% if you have kind of $80, $90 oil moving forward beyond 2022.
Doug Leggate:
Thank you. Thank you for the clarity. My follow-up is a quick one, hopefully. If I look at the strip, Jeff, it's also for you I’m afraid, even with the 50% variable after the base dividend increase, you still got an enormous amount of cash and you still -- you've dealt with your balance sheet. So why there are a lot concern or the lack of visibility on sustaining the buyback for an extended period beyond 2022? It seems you've got the capacity to do.
Jeff Ritenour:
Well, I would -- we absolutely do. You're exactly right. And I would tell you our past behavior on this front is going to be a good indicator of what to expect from us in the future. We haven't been shy about altering the framework on a go-forward basis. As I mentioned earlier, I think you'll see more fixed dividend growth from us as the environment evolves, and we get more comfort with some of the uncertainties that Rick highlighted in his last commentary. And then beyond that, going back to our Board as we just did this lack order, for another reload on the share repurchase program. So I think you're going to see us continue to evolve the framework. I don't think you'll see us materially move the variable dividend threshold to kind of the 50% level. We think that, that's important to have that sense of clarity and transparency for our shareholders. But going forward, I think the fixed dividend can actually grow. And absolutely, the share repurchase is something that we'll continue to lean into. As we look at the share repo, we believe we continue to trade at a discount to the broader market, a discount to the historical multiples and the discount to our closest peers. So we're going to continue to be out there and be opportunistic about buying shares. And when we see the stock trade off on kind of an absolute and a relative basis, you should expect to see us enter the market and get after it.
Doug Leggate:
Great stuff. Thanks fellows.
Operator:
The next question is from Jeanine Wai with Barclays. Your line is open.
Jeanine Wai:
Hi. Good morning, everyone. Thanks for taking our questions.
Jeff Ritenour:
Good morning, Jeanine.
Jeanine Wai:
Our questions are on the Delaware. Maybe the first one is on operational momentum. Can you just talk, Clay, maybe about how the oil production should trend throughout the year? We know that Q1, there is some weather in there, but we're particularly interested in kind of the momentum heading into year-end, given the potential for corporate growth in 2023?
Clay Gaspar:
Yeah. Thanks for the question, Jeanine. Yes, certainly, we'll see a depressed first quarter and, I'll speak corporately first, we should see a nice uptick. We've got a pretty good slug of wells coming in at the end of the first quarter, really benefiting Q2. And then I think we'll see kind of more ratable production for the balance of the year. I think it's similar as we peel back in Delaware, when you think about that kind of shape of the curve. So there should probably be a similar shape of the curve in Delaware. Obviously, the number is a little different.
Jeanine Wai:
Okay. Great. Maybe actually switching gears back to the balance sheet for a second here. So just to be clear, we wanted to tick on potential uses of cash in the future. So we just heard your commentary about potential to up the buyback if prices hold and things look good. That you don't necessarily want to revisit the 50% of free cash flow, but there's room for growth in the base dividend. When we look at the last source or use of cash, I guess that's the balance sheet. And so it seems to us like there's limited opportunity to reasonably call any debt early beyond what you've laid out in the slide for 2023. So we just wanted to check if there's any other debt reduction that you can reasonably do? We know that there's some pretty punitive make-whole premiums and stuff like that. And so we're just trying to figure out how much cash could potentially go towards the buyback and the dividend since you can't really do too much more on the debt side?
Jeff Ritenour:
Yes. You bet, Jeanine. No change to our game plan as it relates to our leverage position and the debt that we had outstanding. As you'll recall, what I walked through in the fall was that we've got about $400 million of callable debt at the end of this year, call it, October of this year. And then another just under $600 million of maturities plus a more callable debt that comes due in 2023. So our current base game plan is to take out that $1 billion of debt kind of on that timetable. And then as you move into 2024, there's another -- in 2025, there's another $500 million a year roughly. So over the next, call it, three to four years, we think we can take another, call it, $2 billion, $2.5 billion of absolute debt out. That's our current game plan. Obviously, depending on what rates do and how things shake out, we might alter that. But that's our current intention.
Jeanine Wai:
Okay. Thank you.
Jeff Ritenour:
You bet.
Operator:
The next question is from Nitin Kumar with Wells Fargo. Your line is open.
Nitin Kumar:
Hi. Good morning, Rick and congrats on another successful quarter. You've come a long way since the merger, as you said in your prepared remarks. But you're generating about $60 per barrel in free cash given your breakevens. You've talked about a market-leading yield for income investors, but imagine wellhead economics are pretty attractive at today's prices. So the question I have is, how committed are you to sub-5% oil growth if commodity prices stay at today's levels into 2023 and beyond? And maybe when do you think you have the license to grow again?
Rick Muncrief:
Well, that's a good question. I think, Nitin, what I would just point to is, and I tried to articulate this pretty routinely is we do put a lot of -- we do put a lot of faith into the shape of the curve. And sometimes you can – you can debate where the absolute points on the curve are. But when you see such a steep backwardation and you start thinking about trying to add activity by the time you bring to barrels on, I mean, let's face it, it would -- it's going to be a while down the road. So we think, for us, the 5% that we laid out at the time of the – the announcement of the merger is still holds. That's the max. And we really -- to be honest with you, there's so much uncertainty probably as you look out in the outer years. I think for us, look, we'll stick to Nitin and maintain that max that 5% growth.
Nitin Kumar:
Great. I think that's the answer most people want to hear.
Rick Muncrief:
Yes. And Nitin, can I -- if I can, Nitin, let me just add one thing. I want to make sure that everyone on the call understands, we are growing. When you start talking about the free cash flow per share growth, we talked about 70% growth. And you just need to -- you think let that soak in for a few moments on of this year over next year. So, it's -- that's where we're going to focus on our growth, to be honest with you.
Nitin Kumar:
Great. I guess my next question is really for Clay, but the Eastern Delaware assets, the PRB, you are some of the newer assets in your portfolio. It's an abundance of riches, but they're not getting us with capital right now. So I just to understand how do those assets fit into the broader inventory pile?
Clay Gaspar:
Yes. Thanks for the question. And I'd tell you, those teams are doing some great things. We do have some capital allocated, some work. In fact, we have two rigs over in the Eastern Delaware right now, delineating a little bit more of that kind of eastern shelf play. The opportunity you point to the abundance of rigs is it just doesn't compete for the lion's share, the development, where we're really turning the crank to generate substantial returns. But we're realized. I mean we look down the curve and we say, okay, where do we need to invest those assessment dollars to further delineate? We're watching aggressively across the fence. The Powder River Basin that you brought up is a great example of that. There's some really exceptionally good companies investing real dollars in that. We're participating. We're watching. It's a very relatively small percentage of our overall capital budget. But is this -- as the prices continue to strengthen, all of this stuff lights up and is very productive, full cycle, very strong returns, and we'll compete for capital at some point in our portfolio. And so, I don't feel very rushed to push it out of our portfolio, if that was your question. I think there will be a great opportunity for the sun to shy on these assets in due time.
Nitin Kumar:
Thanks. That’s helpful.
Operator:
The next question is from Paul Cheng with Scotiabank. Your line is open.
Paul Cheng:
Yes. Thank you. Two questions, please. The first one, I think, just for Jeff. This year that you hedge about 20% of the volume, a lot of those is legacy hedge, I think, from WPX. Going forward, with your balance sheet and with your cash flow model and operating model, is the 20% a reasonable level going forward that we should assume you guys are going to hedge or that's a fundamental change maybe after this negative hedges that you guys are no longer going to do hedges?
Jeff Ritenour:
Yes. Thanks, Paul. Yes, you bet. Great question. And I would tell you, really no material change to our philosophy from what we talked about on the last call back in the fall. Just to give you a little bit of a foundation for where we sit today, we're roughly about 25% hedged on oil and about 30%, 35% on gas. We think that's an appropriate level given our financial strength and the margin of safety that we have on -- with our low reinvestment rate of our kind of our base business model. So, you've heard me talk about that in the past. The thing that's fundamentally changed in our business versus two, three, four years ago is in the past, we were spending all of our cash flow in an attempt to grow at double-digit type rates, which was competitive with the broader sector. Today, with the lower reinvestment ratio and the steady state level of activity, it just creates a margin of safety for us in our business to where even if prices pull back, it doesn't alter our activity. So, you have heard me and Clay talked about it in the past, that's what really dilutes our returns is when we have to yank around our operating activity from month-to-month or quarter-to-quarter, we try really hard not to do that. That's why we developed a steady state kind of maintenance capital level program. And it's really served us well. Obviously, the commodity prices that we're experiencing in today have been a nice tailwind as well. But as it relates to our hedging program, we feel like going forward, you'll see us hedge at this lower level, somewhere around the 30% level, whereas historically we might have been closer to 50% or north of that.
Paul Cheng:
So you still be hedging, but not abandoning the hedges because one they are –
Jeff Ritenour:
Yeah, absolutely. We -- yeah, you bet. So our executive team, along with our marketing group is responsible for executing the hedges for us. We meet every other week, and we debate what we're seeing in the market. We talk about not only the benchmark prices, but the prices that we're seeing in the individual basins as well. And we are actively monitoring that and evaluating whether or not we want to layer on additional hedges. And we do it in a variety of ways. Sometimes we use swaps. Here more recently, we've used pretty wide costless collars to help us mitigate that we see in the market.
Paul Cheng:
All right. The same question is that, trying to go back into the Powder River Basin. Clay, seems that you guys merged and that, that is a new asset to you and maybe some of your team. So over the past 15 months or 18 months, what have you learned? And are we – are you guys going to take the process just met other people like Continental and maybe EOG going to, say, spend the money and then you just watch, or that you're going to take a more active role over the next – may not be this year, but over the next, say, two or three years, what's the approach that you guys are going to take here?
Clay Gaspar:
Yeah. Paul, in my remarks, I talked a little bit about some of the work that we're doing, the excitement around pushing the laterals a little longer, kind of rebooting the completion design. And we have a couple of wells that came on last year were watching. And I can tell you, especially in today's strip, the returns are competitive. They make – the competitive returns on a full cycle basis, they look really nice. Now they're not competitive and amongst our full portfolio, but they yield positive returns. And so as we're able to continue that, we have a handful of wells. I believe half a dozen wells or so we'll be drilling this year, again, pushing the laterals out. Really, watching the productivity side, I'm less concerned at this point on trying to drive down the cost side of the equation, because we – I have full confidence once the team crosses that threshold that we could get to a development mode, those costs will come down. So really watching that productivity side, seeing how this – how these – how this reservoir really reacts. I'm speaking specifically around the Niobrara and somewhat the Mowry as well, where you see a lot of the upside potential. But don't expect us to divert a whole lot of capital toward that asset in the near-term. We are thrilled to see great companies like Continental and EOG and others continuing to invest and scale up activity. And that gives us really good confidence that we will be able to continue to learn even with a very moderate capital program.
Paul Cheng:
Can you -- just curious that in Eagle Ford that you guys formed a joint venture and turned out to be extremely successful, and you have someone that to – helped you and maybe accelerate the development. In Powder River basin, does it make sense for you guys that are trying to do something like that, or that this is something that is such an early stage, you think you do really don't know what you have and you want to keep 100% until you know before you decide what to do?
Clay Gaspar:
Yeah, Paul, I think our JV that we executed in the Mid-Con is a great example of how to find – how to allocate resource to a play that doesn't on a heads-up basis compete today for capital, but you know you need to get that machine running. And so I think, the Anadarko Basin is a great example of we needed to get money back to it. We brought in a partner, leverage that relationship, and we have significantly outperformed on the well cost. We've significantly outperformed on well productivity. And that asset continues to drive towards competitiveness on a heads-up basis. The returns, I can today in the strip environment, are outstanding on a heads-up basis. Powder is a little further earlier in the mature cycle, I would say, from being able to cycle through that. But when we get to a point where we can go to a third-party and say, here are the returns that we've exhibited on a routine basis, and there's need on that bone available for them to come in and lever, then we can take a leveraged approach just how we did in the Anadarko and scale that into something that really could compete on a heads-up basis. So that's certainly a possibility. We're not quite there yet, but certainly something in our frame of view that we would be excited to explore at the right time.
Paul Cheng:
Thank you.
Operator:
The next question is from Matthew Portillo with TPH. Your line is open.
Matthew Portillo:
Good morning, all.
Rick Muncrief:
Hi, Matt.
Matthew Portillo:
Just a quick question maybe for Clay. I know that this has been a big focus for the organization of blocking up and getting contiguous acreage in the Permian. I was curious how much additional room do you think there is to run with continuing to progress the lateral length? And what that might mean for the average lateral length in 2022 in the Permian, it continues to seemingly drive an improvement in capital efficiency here?
Clay Gaspar:
Yes, Matt, that's definitely a tool, when you're paying attention to average lateral length, you see the correlation between capital efficiency and lateral length. And that drives all the way through to the bottom-line return. So we're excited about longer laterals. We have a healthy dose of three-mile laterals in the mix for the Permian. But I would say, by far, most of our wells will be two-mile wells. The challenge there is when you set up the initial land development, a lot of times, it's -- you're kind of locked in. And so retooling a development that's partially developed from two to three is a pretty challenging opportunity. As we move into some of the other areas that either haven't been fully developed or we're continuing to work the land work, we will often see us push towards those three-mile laterals. We've built a lot of confidence in drilling those three-mile laterals. I just mentioned the Powder. We've done quite a few in the Williston and quite a few now in the Delaware. And as you pointed out, there's a whole lot of value-creation efficiency associated with that. We're not done. Our land team is added every single day. Those like-for-like trades are hugely mutually beneficial and there's still opportunities out there. We are working on several right now. Hope to talk more about in the coming quarters and just know every time we get one of those things done, that's more green lights for us to develop -- either develop on a two-mile or a three-mile. And then these price environments, to be honest, the returns kind of cap out and max out all the tools that we have on rate of return. So it's pretty awesome to watch. So a lot of good work going on there.
Matthew Portillo:
Perfect. And then my follow-up question just relates to the Dow JV. Just wanted to check in on where we are from a development perspective. I think the original deal was for 133 wells. So should we expect that, I guess, at the current pace to continue for the next few years? And then I guess with the strength in the commodity backdrop, do you see any further activity to either expand that existing JV or bring in new partners to continue to drive competitive rates of return with the Permian?
Clay Gaspar:
Yes. So we're about 30% to date on the Dow deal. We're scaling up activity a little bit relative – in '21 relative to '22. So be most of the way through end of '22, probably have a tail in '23. I can tell you, it's one of those deals you love to see where we're thrilled with it. It's the right financial tool that we needed to apply to this great asset and Dow on the other side is thrilled as well. So I would say the door is wide open to expand the conversation. There's a lot more acreage. We've got a tremendous position. But we also have to look at it and say, okay, where does this become essentially a competitive heads-up project for us and when do we just fund it straight up. So anyway, it's a good problem to have. Really pleased with the team that work -- the business development team that put it together initially. This is just a real great success to model that where applicable. And maybe Powder is a place that could use this kind of opportunity in due time.
Matthew Portillo:
Thank you.
Operator:
The next question is from John Freeman with Raymond James. Your line is open.
John Freeman:
Good morning. Thanks for squeezing me in. The first question I had, just a follow-up, Jeff, on what you were saying on the base of the fixed dividend. So just to be clear, the increase in that dividend was just a result of the payout ratio going higher and there was no change to mid-cycle pricing that, that was based on?
Jeff Ritenour:
Yes, that's correct. That's the way we've thought about it is worked through the cost structure, obviously, over the last several years. But particularly post merger, we step back and looked at our cost structure and what we thought was sustainable going forward based on our mid-cycle pricing, we decided it made sense to move that the fixed dividend higher based on that payout ratio that I talked about kind of roughly at 7.5%.
John Freeman:
And Jeff, can you remind us of the mid-cycle price that you are using, is that still around like a $50 oil, $3 gas type level?
Jeff Ritenour:
No, it's higher than that. We've been using kind of $60, $65 oil for that.
John Freeman:
And the gas price, is that around $300, $250?
Jeff Ritenour:
3 -- Yes, exactly.
John Freeman:
Okay. Great. And then just the last question for me. I realize that the full year '22 budget didn't change at all, but the one number that I don't think you'll have wouldn't have had completely dialed in at that point. You are sort of estimating was on the non-op side. I think you were sort of thinking as a placeholder, that would be $50 million to $100 million. I'm just curious kind of where that shook out given the big move in the commodity price in last spoke 3 months ago?
Clay Gaspar:
Yes. What I would say on that is, remember, we have a deal in place to cap that the non-op exposure in the Permian. And so we're really only exposed in the other basins. And so, we feel like we're -- we have a pretty well under control. But clearly, as activity picks up, there's more pressure on that, and we'll figure out how we manage that during the course of the year.
John Freeman:
Good job guys. Thanks.
Scott Coody:
Well, it looks like we're at the end of our time slot today. We appreciate everyone's interest in Devon. And if you have any further questions, reach out to the Investor Relations team at any time. And once again, thank you for your time, and have a good day.
Operator:
Welcome to the Devon Energy 's Third Quarter Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. This call is being recorded. I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Scott Coody, Vice President of Investor Relations. Sir, you may begin.
Scott Coody:
Good morning. And thank you to everyone for joining us on the call today. Last night, we issued an earnings release and presentation to cover our results for the quarter and our forward-looking outlook. Throughout the call today, we will make references to our earnings presentation to support our prepared remarks. And these slides can be found on our website. Also joining me on the call today are Rick Muncrief, our President and CEO, Clay Gaspar, our Chief Operating Officer, Jeff Ritenour, our Chief Financial Officer, and a few members of our senior management team. Comments today will include plans, forecasts, and estimates that are forward-looking statements under U.S. securities law. These comments are subject to assumptions, risks, and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ from our forward-looking statements. Please take note of the cautionary language and risk factors provided in our SEC filings and earnings materials. With that, I'll turn the call over to Rick.
Rick Muncrief:
Thank you, Scott. Great to be here this morning. We appreciate everyone taking the time to join us on the call today. Devon's third quarter results were outstanding. Once again, showcasing the power of our Delaware focused asset portfolio and the benefits of a financially driven business model. Our team's unwavering focus on operations excellence has established impressive momentum that has allowed us to capture efficiencies, accelerate free cash flow, reduce leverage, and return a market-leading amount of cash to shareholders. Simply put, we are delivering on exactly what our shareholder-friendly business model was designed for, and that is to lead the energy industry in capital discipline and cash returns. Now, moving to Slide 4, while our strategy is a clear differentiator for Devon, the success of this approach is underpinned by our high-quality asset portfolio that is headlined by our world-class acreage position in the Delaware Basin. With this advantaged portfolio, we possess a multi-decade resource opportunity in the best position plays on the U.S. cost curve. And with this sustainable resource base, we are positioned to win multiple ways with our balanced commodity exposure. While our production is leveraged to oil, nearly half our volumes come from natural gas and NGLs, providing us with meaningful revenue exposure to each of these valuable products. This balance and diversification are critically important to Devon's long-term success. As you can see on Slide 5, the strength of our operations and the financial benefits of our strategy were on full display with our third quarter results. This is evidenced by several noteworthy accomplishments, including, we completed another batch of excellent wells in Delaware Basin that drove volumes 5% above our guidance. We maintained our capital allocation in a very disciplined way by limiting a reinvestment rates to only 30% of our cash flow. We're continuing to capture synergies and drive per unit cost lower. We're also achieving a more than 8-fold increase in our free cash flow. We're increasing our fixed and variable dividend payout by 71%. We're improving our financial strength by reducing net debt 16% in the quarter. Overall, it was another tremendous quarter for Devon and now I especially want to congratulate our employees and our investors for these special results. Now moving to slide 6, while 2021 is wrapping up to be a great year for Devon, the investment thesis only gets stronger as I look ahead to next year. Although we're still working to finalize the details of our 2022 plan, I want to emphasize that our strategic framework remains unchanged and we will continue to prioritize free cash flow generation over the pursuit of volume growth. As we have stated many times in the past, we have no intention of adding incremental barrels into the market until demand side fundamentals sustainably recover and it becomes evident that OPEC+ spare oil capacity is effectively absorbed by the world market. With this disciplined approach and to sustain our production profile in 2022, we are directionally planning on an upstream capital program in the range of $1.9 to $2.2 billion. Importantly, with our operating efficiency gains and improved economies of scale, we can fund this program at a WTI breakeven price of around $3. This low break-even funding level is a testament to the great work the team has done over the past few years to streamline our cost structure and optimize our capital efficiency. Being positioned as a low -- low-cost producer provides us with a wide margin of safety to continue to execute on all facets of our cash return model. With our 2022 outlook, Devon will have one of the most advantaged cash flow growth outlooks and the industry, At today's prices, with a full benefit of the merger synergies and an improved hedge book, we're positioned for cash flow growth of more than 40% compared to 2021. As you can see on the graph, this strong outlook translates into a free cash flow yield of 18% at an $80 WTI price. The key takeaway here is that 2022 is shaping up to be an excellent year for Devon shareholders. Now jumping ahead to Slide 8, the top priority of our free cash flow is the funding of our fixed plus variable dividend. This unique dividend policy is specifically designed for our commodity driven business and provides us the flexibility to return more cash to shareholders than virtually any other opportunity in the markets today. To demonstrate this point we've included a simple comparison of our estimated dividend yield in 2022 based on our preliminary guidance. As you can see, Devon 's implied dividend is not only more than double that of the energy sector, but this yield is vastly superior to every sector in the S&P 500 Index. In fact, at today's pricing, Devon's yield is more than 7 times higher than the average Company that is represented in the S&P 500 Index. Now that's truly something to think about in the yield-starred world we currently live in. Moving on to Slide 9, with our improving free cash flow outlook and strong financial position, I'm excited to announce the next step in our cash return strategy with the authorization of $1 billion share repurchase program. This program is equivalent to approximately 4% of Devon's current market capitalization and is authorized through year-end 2022. Jeff will cover this topic in greater detail later in the call. But this opportunistic buyback is a great complement to our dividend strategy and provides us with another capital allocation tool to enhance per results for shareholders. Now, skipping ahead to Slide 11, and to close out my prepared remarks, I want to summarize Devon 's unique investment proposition through 3 simple charts. Beginning on the far-left chart, our business is positioned to generate cash flow growth of more than 20 -- 40% in 2022, which is vastly superior to most other opportunities in the market. As you can see in the middle chart, this strong growth translates into 18% free cash flow yield that will be deployed to dividends, buybacks, and the continued improvement of our balance sheet. And lastly, on the far-right chart, even with all these outstanding financial attributes, we would still trade at a very attractive valuation, especially compared to the broader market indices. We believe this to be another catalyst for our share price appreciation as more and more investors discovered Devon's unique investment proposition. And with that, I'll turn the call over to Clay to cover some of the great operational results we delivered in the third quarter, Clay.
Clay Gaspar:
Thank you, Rick. Hey, good morning everybody. In summary, Devon's third quarter impressive results were the result of tremendous execution across nearly every aspect of our business. We had wins in environmental and safety performance, operational improvements, continued cultural alignment, strong well productivity, cost control, significant margin expansion, and ultimately excellent returns on the invested capital. This recurring trend of operational excellence, while managing significant organizational change and macro stress has now been established over multiple quarters and is a testament to the Devon employees, in strong leadership throughout the organization. As I look forward to 22 and beyond, I believe we're positioned to continue delivering, but also takeout take our performance to an even higher level of cohesion and productivity. Providing the energy to fuel today's modern world is critically important work. I'm very proud of what we do and how we do it. As I look forward to Devon's near and long-term goals, I'm confident in our ability to deliver on society's ever-increasing expectations. Let's turn to Slide 13 and we can dig into the Delaware Basin. Devon's operational performance in the quarter was once again driven by our world-class Delaware Basin assets, where roughly 80% of our capital was deployed. With this capital investment, we continue to maintain steady activity levels by running 13 operated rigs and 4 frac crews, bringing on 52 wells during the quarter. As you can see in the bottom left of this slide, this focused development program translated into another quarter of robust volume growth and our continued cost performance allowed us to capture the full impact of the higher commodity prices. Turning your attention to the map on the right side. Our well productivity across the base and continued to be outstanding in the quarter. With the results headlined by our boundary radar project, Some may recall that this is not the first time we've delivered on impressive results from this well pad. Back in 2018, our original boundary raider project developed a package of Bone Spring wells that set a record for the highest rate wells ever brought online in the Delaware Basin. Fast-forward to today, this edition of the boundary radar went further down hole to develop an over-pressured section in the Upper Wolf camp. This project also delivered exceptionally high rates with our best well delivering initial 30-day production rates of 7,300 BOE per day, of which more than that -- more than 60% of that was oil. I call that pretty good for a secondary target. Moving a bit east into Leake County, another result for this quarter was our Cobra project, where the team executed on a 3-mile Wolf camp development. This part outperformed our pre -drill expectations by more than 10% with the top well achieving 30-day rates as high as 6,300 BOE per day. In addition to the strong flow rates, this activity helped us prove the economics of the Wolf camp inventory in the area, further deepening the resource rich opportunity we hold in the Delaware. Turning to Slide 14. With the strong operating results we delivered this quarter, high-margin oil production in the Delaware Basin, continuing to expand and rapidly advance growing 39% year-over-year. Importantly, the returns on invested capital to deliver this growth, were some of the highest I've seen in my career, bolstered by rising strip prices and the capital efficiency improvements we've delivered this year. These efficiencies are evidenced on the right-hand chart, where our average D&C cost improved to $554 per lateral foot in the third quarter, a decrease of 41% from just a few years ago. While we have likely found the bottom of this cycle earlier this year, the team continues to make operational breakthroughs that have thus far fought back most of the inflationary pressure. We continue to win from a fresh perspective, blending teams, and also still relatively, we're still working to know each other pretty early on. These accomplishments are clearly demonstrated in the great work our team has done to drive improvements across the entire planning and execution of our resource. To maintain this high level of performance into 2022, we are focused on staying out ahead of the inflationary pressures that are impacting not just our industry, but all aspects of the broader society. While our consistency and scale on Delaware are huge advantage, the supply chain team is working hard to anticipate issues, mitigate bottlenecks, and work with the asset teams to adjust plans to optimize our cost structure and future capital activity. Turning to Slide 15, another asset I'd like to put in the spotlight today is our position in the Anadarko Basin where we have a concentrated 300,000 net acre position and liquids-rich window of the play. As you may know, Rick and I both have a historical tie to this basin, and we're thrilled to get to see the great work that our teams are doing to unlock this value for investors. A key objective for us this year in the Anadarko Basin is to reestablish operational continuity by leveraging the drilling carry from our joint venture agreement with Dow. By way of background, in late 2019, we formed a partnership with Dow and a promoted deal, where Dow earns half of our our interest on a 133 undrilled locations in exchange for $100 million drilling carry. With the benefits of this drilling carry, we're drilling around 30 wells this year and our initial wells from this activity were brought on during the quarter. The 4-well Miller project is an up spaced Woodford development in Canadian County and is off to a great start with both DNC costs and well productivity outperforming pre -drill expectations. Initial 30-day rates averaged 2700 BOE per day and completed well cost came in under budget at around $8 million per well. While I'm proud of how well the team hit the ground running as we get our processes lined out and efficiencies dialed in, I foresee material improvements and well costs ahead. The leverage returns from this carried activity will compete effectively for capital with any asset in our portfolio. In fact the strength of natural gas and NGL pricing, the performance we're seeing in the Anadarko Basin will likely command relatively more capital than it did in '21. Moving to slide 16, while the Delaware Basin is clearly the growth engine of our Company, and we're excited about the upside for the Anadarko. We also have several high-quality assets in the oil fairway of the use that generate substantial free cash flow. While these assets don't typically grab the headlines, their strong performance is essential to the continued success of our strategy. These teams are doing great work to improve our environmental footprint, drive the capital program, optimize base production, and keeping our cost structure low. As an example, Williston will generate over $700 million of 2021 free cash flow. Collectively, these assets are on pace to generate nearly $1.5 billion of free cash flow this year. Lastly, on Slide 17, with our diversified portfolio concentrated in the very best U.S. resource place, we have a deep inventory of opportunities that underpin the long-term sustainability of our business model. As you may have heard me talk about in prior quarters, we have a brutal capital allocation process in regards to the competitiveness of how we seek the best investment mix for the Company. The first step of this process is to make sure that all the teams are working from the same assumptions and inputs. Since the close of our merger earlier this year, we have undertaken a very disciplined and rigorous approach to characterize risk, force rank, the opportunity set across our portfolio. This inventory disclosure is the result of that detailed subsurface work and evaluation across our portfolio that we converted into a single consolidated platform to ensure consistency. Turning your attention to the middle bar on the chart. At our pace of activity, we possess more than a decade of low risk and high return inventory of what we believe to be in a mid cycle price deck. As you would expect, about 70% of our inventory resides in the Delaware Basin, providing the depth of inventory to sustain our strong capital efficiency for many years to come. Let me be clear. In this exercise, we are focused on compiling a very important slice of our total inventory. This summary is not meant to convey the full extent of the possible with these incredible resources. These are only operated essentially all along lateral up spaced wells that deliver competitive returns in a $55 oil environment. Moving to the bar on the far right of the chart. We also expect inventory depth to continue to expand as we capture additional efficiencies, optimize spacing, and further delineate the rich geologic columns across our acreage footprint. Expect -- we expect a significant portion of the upside opportunities to convert into our de -risk inventory over time. Examples this upside include the massive resource potential in the Lower Wolf camp intervals, continual appraisal success in the Powder River Basin, and the significant liquids-rich opportunity we possess in the Anadarko Basin. The bottom line here is that we have an abundance of high economic opportunity to not only sustain, but grow our cash flow per share for many years to come. With that, I'll turn the call over to Jeff for the financial review.
Jeff Ritenour:
Thanks, Clay. I'd like to spend my time today discussing the substantial progress we've made advancing our financial strategy and highlight the next steps we plan to take to increase cash returns to shareholders. A good place to start is with a review of Devon's financial performance in the third quarter, were Devon's earnings and cash flow per share growth rapidly expanded and comfortably exceeded consensus estimates. Operating cash flow for the third quarter totaled $1.6 billion, an impressive increase of 46% compared to last quarter. This level of cash flow generation comfortably funded our capital spending requirements and generated $1.1 billion of free cash flow in the quarter. This result represents the highest amount of free cash flow generation Devon has ever delivered in a single quarter and is a powerful example of the financial results our cash return business model can deliver. Turning your attention to Slide 7, with this significant stream of free cash flow, a differentiating component of our financial strategy is our ability and willingness to accelerate the return of cash to shareholders through our fixed plus variable dividend framework. This dividend strategy has been uniquely designed to provide us the flexibility to optimize the return of cash to shareholders across a variety of market conditions through the cycle. Under our framework, we pay a fixed dividend every quarter and evaluate a variable distribution of up to 50% of the remaining free cash flow. With a strong financial results, we delivered this Quarter, the board approved a 71% increase in our dividend payout versus last Quarter to $0.84 per share. This is the fourth quarter in a row, we have increased the dividend and is by far the highest quarterly dividend payout in Devon's 50-year history. As you can see on the bar chart to the left at current market prices, we expect our dividend growth story to only strengthen in 2022. In fact that today's pricing we are on pace to nearly double dividend next year. Moving to Slide 10, in addition to higher dividends, we've also returned value to shareholders through our efforts to reduce debt and improve our Balance Sheet. So far this year, we've made significant progress towards this initiative by retiring over $1.2 billion of outstanding notes. In conjunction with this absolute debt reduction, we've also added to our liquidity building a $2.3 billion cash balance at quarter end. With this substantial cash build and reduction in debt, we've reached our net debt to EBITDA leverage target of 1 ton or less. Even with this advantaged balance sheet, we're not done making improvements. We have identified additional opportunities to improve our financial strength by retiring approximately $1.0 billion of premium -- low premium debt in 2022 and 2023. Importantly, Devon has the flexibility to execute on this debt reduction with cash already accumulated on the balance sheet. And to round out my prepared remarks this morning, I'd like to provide some thoughts on the $1 billion share repurchase program we announced last night. While the top priority for free cash flow remains the funding of our market-leading dividend yield, we believe this buyback authorization provides us another excellent capital allocation tool to enhance per-share results for shareholders. Given the cyclical nature of our business, we'll be very disciplined with this authorization, only transacting when our equity trades at a discounted valuation to historical multiples and the multiple levels of our highest quality peers. We believe the double-digit free cash flow yield our equity delivers, as outlined on Slide 6, represents a unique buying opportunity. The reduction in outstanding shares further improves our impressive cash flow per share growth and adds to the variable dividend per share for our shareholders. With this -- with these disciplined criteria guiding our decision-making, we'll look to opportunistically repurchase our equity in the open market once our corporate blackout expires later this week. So in summary, our financial strategy is working well. We have excellent liquidity and our business is generating substantial free cash flow. We're positioned to significantly grow our dividend payout over the next year. The go-forward business will have an all-Ultra low leverage ratio of a turnover less. And we'll look to boost per-share results by opportunistically repurchasing our shares. And with that, I'll now turn the call back to Rick for some closing comments.
Rick Muncrief:
Thank you, Jeff. Great job. In closing today, I'd like to highlight a few things. Number 1. Devon is meeting the demands of investors with our capital discipline, earnings and cash flow growth, market leading dividend payout, debt reduction, and now a share buyback program, Number 2. Devon is also meeting the demands of the market with our strong oil production results, great exposure to natural gas and NGLs along with our consistent execution, and Number 3. Lastly, Devon is also meeting the demands of society by providing a reliable energy before the pandemic, during the pandemic, and as we emerge from the pandemic. Our people throughout the 5 states where we operate continue to show up for work and worked safely. We didn't overreact with our capital program during the pandemic like many others did. We actually strengthened the Company with a merger. And finally, we're laser-focused on achieving our stated short-term, mid-term, and long-term ESG targets. We're proud of the work we've done and look forward to continuing meeting the needs of investors, the market, and society for the foreseeable future. Devon is a premier energy Company and we're excited about the value we'll consistently provide to all of our important stakeholders. And with that, I will now turn the call back over to Scott for Q&A.
Scott Coody:
Thanks, Rick. We'll now open the call to Q&A. Please limit yourself to one question and a follow-up. This allows us to get to more of your questions on the call today. With that Operator, we'll take our first question.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions]
Operator:
Your first question comes from the line of Arun Jayaram with JPMorgan Securities.
Arun Jayaram:
Good morning team. Rick, I wanted to maybe start off talking about the inventory depths slide that you put out 11-plus years of low-risk development opportunities, 70% in the Delaware Basin. We have seen a couple of large Permian Basin trades with Conoco and Pioneer earlier this year. So I wanted to get your thoughts on how you're thinking about portfolio renewal just given that inventory depth. And perhaps Clay could also comment on the ability of -- to de -risking the wells in that 2,500 well bucket, including that deeper Wolf camp zone.
Rick Muncrief:
It's a great question, Arun. And I'll have Clay weigh in and provide some more details. The way we're looking at it is, number 1, as Clay talked about, we did a very comprehensive deep dive. We -- and once again, these numbers are strictly operated, so we have non-operated projects out there that are not in this scale. We wanted to make it really clear that these are operated. We're working to control the drilling completion activities. We also contemplated many of the sections that have been setup as 1-mile laterals are now 2-mile laterals with some of the acreage consolidations that we've seen. And in some cases, where you've got the federal units, especially on the New Mexico side, we've seen now the opportunities to drill more and more of the 3-mile laterals. And you saw the results we just put up, not only this past quarter, but over the last year or so. So really, really attractive opportunities. I think there's going to continue to be opportunities for us to replenish our inventory there. And one of this, you mentioned a couple of transactions that have taken place in the broader Permian, but specifically in the Delaware side you laid out the Conoco's purchase of the share, because I can tell you Arun that we operate wells that are the Shell ahead, non-operated interest in. We have opportunity to do a lot more trading, and I think optimizing our portfolio. That's the first thing I'll add to and I think that's going to even further optimize the returns we get. And then, there are going to be other small opportunities out there. We really focused on bolt-on type of things that really make industrial, make a lot of sense from an industrial perspective. And so I think you'll continue to see that. I'll also just way in The last two days, we've had an internal tech conference. And when I look at the unbelievable technology that's being employed by Devon today is we find more and more opportunities within the acreage we're already operating. I got really excited, and I think the entire organization is excited about what the future looks like. Those are a couple of ideas that we have. And I'm confident that our team will continue to keep a long runway of inventory opportunities up front. Clay, you may might want to add to that.
Clay Gaspar:
Thanks, Rick. I'll just reiterate a couple of your points. Number 1, Arun, as you well know, we're always trying to drill our best well next. And it's amazing to me, as long as we've all been in this business, today we're drilling the best wells we've ever drilled. And it's not because we saved them until today. It's because our teams have continued to innovate, get better. How do we get on the efficiency side? How do we figure out how to wring out the most optimal amount of resource from these incredible plays? How do we understand the plays? What Rick was just talking about, some of the technology we are involving today is absolutely outstanding. Second tip of the hat I'd like to provide is to the land team, and Rick mentioned this, but the incredible work that's been done in trading around our core areas just makes us all better. Both parties typically in a trade, we're like-for-like exchanging, at the same time we're extending laterals, we're building efficiencies in a ground floor level. And that just makes us better. And so those things will continue. Specific to your comment on moving some of the de -risked -- excuse me, the upside inventory to the de -risked inventory. Absolutely, that'll happen. The luxury that we have today is because we have so much quality out in front of us we don't have to different -- don't have to invest significant amount into that de -risking program. So we could accelerate it faster, but we're going to be very measured about this. By far most of our investment is just plowing the ground, driving down costs, getting exceptionally efficient, and just wringing out that free cash flow machine that we talk about strategically. So that will have hydrea confidence that 2500 wells. And by the way, it's a whole lot more than 2500, we'll eventually roll into the de -risk bucket. And it's not too much of a stretch to say when we drill those, some of those will be the best wells that we've ever drilled, even 5 and 10 years from now.
Arun Jayaram:
Great. Thanks for that and my follow-up is for Jeff. I wonder if you could just maybe provide a little bit more color on how management, the board, is thinking about the buyback. Jeff, you mentioned that maybe post the blackout in a couple of days you would opportunity mystically look to be back up. Perhaps using the buyback authorization, but I wanted to get a sense of maybe you could better define this sense of opportunistic nature of the buyback and thoughts on, do you think you'd get a billion dollars done by year-end 2022?
Jeff Ritenour:
Absolutely, Arun. Where we sit today, and we look at -- again, I'll point you back to Slide 6, which was in our deck. If you look at picture price deck, with a 15% to 20% free cash flow yield, we think an investment in Devon stock is an absolute no - brainer where we sit today. You compare that to the multiples we're trading at relative to our highest quality peers, probably, again, 1/2 ton to a ton below those folks. I think it was a pretty easy decision for our Board to go ahead and approve the billion-dollar share repurchase. And so as I made comments in our open, once we get to the blackout here at the end of this week, we expect to jump into the market and really get after it. So we're excited about the investment opportunity that we have married with the fixed and variable dividend framework. Just to be candid, there just isn't anybody else in our sector that's providing this cash returns to our shareholders.
Arun Jayaram:
Great, thanks a lot.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Neil Mehta with Goldman Sachs.
Neil Mehta:
Good morning, team. And nice quarter here. I want to start off on the NGL side of the equation because it doesn't get enough attention in your portfolio. But it's been a hidden driver of a lot of cash flow generation. Can you just remind us how that business is set up here as you think about fourth quarter into 2022, obviously, Anadarko is a little bit more liquids-rich. And how that changes, where that asset in particular competes within the portfolio.
Jeff Ritenour:
Neil, it's a great question. We appreciate you making the point for us, because, again, it's been a real high point for us throughout this year, obviously, with the tailwind that we've seen on NGL prices. Just to remind folks, in 2021, we're producing over 130,000 barrels a day of NGL. And I would expect you moving into 2022, you'll see that grow a bit moving forward. so it's been a really nice tailwind for us. And as you point out, it's not an insignificant portion of the cash flow that we're delivering, and the free cash flow that we're delivering this year and expect that to grow moving into 2022.
Rick Muncrief:
Really, I'd expand on that a little bit. And Neil, you have certainly -- you and your firm have your own view, but ours is that we're pretty constructive on NGL pricing as the worldwide economy just continued to get stronger and stronger. And so I think a point has been made. It's a real nice position to be in when you can see these kind of volumes be put up and helps -- helps with cash flow in a big way.
Neil Mehta:
I agree with that point. And then the follow-up is just when do you think about moving outside at this maintenance mode type of program that the business model that's been set up here [Indiscernible] generate a lot of free cash and return that capital to shareholders. But when do you think it makes us actually pursue a modest degree of growth? Or -- and what are the signals that you're looking for whether it's demand signals, OPEC spare capacity to make that call?
Rick Muncrief:
I think -- the way we're looking at it, Neil, is we're really focused, and we said in our remarks, on the cash flow per share growth. And it's -- when you start looking at 40% cash flow growth in '22/'21, just keeping your volumes flat, absolute volume growth really didn't have a -- we just need to -- we need to make sure that, as we said, the OPEC+ barrels are back in the market and we'll watch things. We'll be thoughtful. But if you think about our retiring or repurchasing actually 4% of your shares, you are going to get some per-share production growth. I think for most of the investors that we talk to, that's plenty good for them and that's how we're thinking about it.
Neil Mehta:
Thanks, Rick.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Doug Leggate with Bank of America.
Doug Leggate:
Hey, good morning, everybody. Had some phone line issues this morning, so I just want to check if you can all hear me okay.
Rick Muncrief:
We sure can.
Doug Leggate:
Excellent. Well, thanks Rick for the presentation. I got a couple of questions, I guess the first one is on the break-even. I just want to make sure I'm reading this right. So you're $30 sustaining capital break-even is using 250 gas, which is obviously quite a bit below where the strip is right now. So given your comments about your gas exposure, if you use current strip, do you think your sustainable breakeven is and if I may tie go and maybe to that, what is the embedded cash tax assumption and not break even?
Jeff Ritenour:
Just -- I frankly haven't done the math to give you an exact number, but it's certainly lower, and I would guess somewhere in the mid 20s would be the breakeven using the current strip of the, call it $3 to $4 on gas prices and then NGLS as well.
Doug Leggate:
And on the tax price, Jeff?
Jeff Ritenour:
On a cash tax basis, you'll see we noted that on -- again on Slide 6 in our presentation. Where things sit today and where commodity prices sit, we'll have to see how the rest of this year shakes out to give you an exact answer on where our NOL balance will land. But generally speaking, we think it's going to be around $3 billion that will carry forward into 2022. On top of that, we will have some foreign tax credits, which will also help us shield some of our income in next year. So again, depending on where commodity prices shake out, we'll be in a pretty good position to shield a fair amount of that taxable income. However, we're guessing it's going to be somewhere in the mid-single-digits will be our current tax rate as we move into 2022. And that's what we've assumed in the forecast that we've outlined on that Slide 6 that I referenced earlier.
Doug Leggate:
Okay. Thanks for that. My follow-up is -- first of all, Rick, I'm delighted to see the buyback introduced and we'll see how that plays out. But I guess the question I have is your variable dividend is a big k not in the context of the total cash return. But I think you know my view on this, which is that it's somewhat backward looking. I don't think the market necessarily gives you a discounted move-forward variable dividend as something that they are prepared to recognize. So buybacks are more permanent, it buys you growth per share. How should we expect the split between the two to evolve over time?
Rick Muncrief:
Well, I think the way we are looking at Neil the variable dividend concept, this is -- I guess, here in December will be the fourth quarterly distribution. So it's I'd say it's still relatively new. It's being very, very well-received, we think is very prudent. We agreed your comments on the share repurchase those those -- are permanent and meaningful. But I think with the variable dividend, we've had a lot of the discussion. Some, people have really asked us about, are we, wanting to bump that up to say a 75% threshold or something, that I think for us, we think the 50% is a very prudent level and see how this plays out. We talked the base dividend, there's variable dividend, now the share repurchases and then as Jeff talked about the debt reduction, those all add up to a very, very compelling story for shareholders, something that we really don't feel good about. So I think that, we'll see how the share repurchase program goes. I think a question will be down to -- this question you're asking, give us a few months, give us a few quarters and let's see how things -- how things play out, and what really makes sense. But that's really how we're looking at. I think a balance approach is pretty hard to compete with. Jeff you may have some additional point here.
Jeff Ritenour:
I would reiterate that last point, Doug, which is we feel like we're delivering all of the above. So whatever your favorite mechanism for cash returns, an investment in Devon is delivering that. As Rick mentioned, as we move into next year, we settle out to the budget, figure out down to the line item how we think the business is going to perform. My guess is we're going to have opportunities to even build further on this framework with the potential to raise the fixed dividend on a go-forward basis. And then we'll reevaluate other additions to the framework as we move through the year and see cash build.
Doug Leggate:
Guys, let me instead close out with a comment because you've led the market on this. You've been early to it, and I think you're really changing the perception of what the [indiscernible] business model can look like. So congratulations on that. Thanks.
Jeff Ritenour:
Thanks, Doug. I appreciate it
Rick Muncrief:
I appreciate it.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Jeanine Wai with Barclays.
Jeanine Wai:
Hi, good morning, everyone. Thanks for taking our questions.
Rick Muncrief:
Absolutely. Good morning, Jeanine, and thanks for sending the picture. Congratulations on the young one.
Jeanine Wai:
Thank you. She's adorable. And thanks for looking. Maybe just following up on Arun and Doug's questions on the buyback. Can you just address how you specifically determine the size and the timeframe of the authorization? should we think about you revisiting either the buyback or the percent variable payout ones. Kind of get through a good portion of that billion-dollar gross debt reduction, or are those decisions independent? I know you just mentioned that the 50% is prudent at this time. You have to see how the business performs and it sounds like maybe in a couple of Quarters you might revisit that, but just maybe dig in a little bit deeper on that, on how it relates to the debt reduction.
Jeff Ritenour:
Yeah, that's right Jeanine, appreciate the question. We -- as I mentioned just on the last question, I think that the first thing we'll probably look to add onto our framework would be a potential rays of the fixed dividend. But absolutely we're going to reconsider as we work our way through next year, should we up size the share repurchase program beyond a billion-dollars. If we get to the end of the year and our cash build exceeds our expectations, I think you could consider a special dividend and then certainly we would reevaluate the 50% threshold on the variable dividend. However, I would just point out, we think there's real value and consistency of maintaining that framework. And so I think, generally, you'll see us work around the edges in some of these other items that we've talked about. But those are all things that we'll debate with the Board as we work our way through the year. To your question about how we determine size, really, it was just a function of looking forward with our projections using what we think is a rational price deck, a normalized price deck, and $1 billion felt like a fair amount. But again, as I mentioned earlier, we'll reevaluate that as we work our way through it and see how it performs, and certainly, we'll have the potential to up size that with the Board.
Jeanine Wai:
Sounds great. Maybe my second question is on the '22 budget. So we know there's a few moving pieces in the midstream side and the other buckets as well. Are there any opportunities that you can walk us through on the midstream and the other bucket side and how those should trend year-over-year now that the integration of WPX is complete? And I think on the upstream side, $1.9 to $2.2 billion forecast, is there anything else there other than inflation that is driving the range, for example, anything on efficiencies or anything macro-related?
Clay Gaspar:
Hey, Jeanine. Thanks for the question. It's Clay. Yeah, I would say on the E&P parts specifically, we all -- we love that our team continues to be more efficient. There's always that hope in that opportunity ahead. I can tell you we've got some pretty good headwinds coming toward us as an industry inflationary-wise. So will we be able to fully offset inflation, in this case we have not assumed that we would. We've baked in something north of 10%, call it 10% to 15%, inflation into our E&P operations. And then the above -- the other items, midstream, the other spend, some of the corporate capital and the ESG spend. That's something that we're probably going to lean into a little harder this year in the range you could probably say about $200 million, which would probably be a high watermark. I don't expect this every year, but I think there is some opportunities for us to really take some significant steps to build out a little bit ahead, make sure that we are being a little bit more forward thinking on some of our infrastructure, and that will allow us to run our operations smoother, including important factors like environmental. So I think this gives you an idea of what we're thinking about. And of course, we'll continue to refine this as we seek board approval, and next visit with you guys we'll give -- offer more details.
Jeanine Wai:
Thank you very much.
Clay Gaspar:
Thanks.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of John Freeman with Raymond James.
John Freeman:
Good morning, guys.
Rick Muncrief:
Hey, John.
John Freeman:
Just kind of a follow-up on Jeanine's question. So you have mentioned that the drilling efficiencies that you all done a remarkable job on that have compressed to cycle times, has been pulling forward activity. I'm curious on the 2022 preliminary plan. Does that assume that you all have a static rig and frac crews relative to the 16 rigs frac crews you have currently or does that assume potentially doing doing more with less next year?
Clay Gaspar:
Yeah, I would say, John, it's directionally the same. We consider it flat activity. You know how it works, we'll -- depending on working interest, other factors, rigs will come and go. We're always upgrading fleets, contract rolls off, contract rolls on. But -- and directionally, we are flat and consistent in our operations. And I can tell you it's part of our inflationary hedge, is that consistency. As we look to our suppliers and try and get goal alignment with these important partners. I can tell you what they want to know is that we're going to be very consistent in our operations. Through the fourth quarter of this year, we're not abnormally dropping rigs and trying to monkey with the system, and then as we roll into next year. And so I think that level of consistency helps tremendously internally and externally as well.
John Freeman:
Great. And just my follow-up question, the terrific results on the boundary radar project and just I guess any additional color there in terms of repeatability and running around that area, any sort of rate through than anything you did on the completion design or anything else that you might be able to take to some of the other area?
Clay Gaspar:
Yeah John, I think it's -- we're at the point of evolution where it's a million small things. And so I think every new pad that we drill, we're continuing to improve. We're shaving minutes and we're shaving just the small-single percentage increases on all of these efficiency gains, really continue to add up. I think in this particular case, we were sitting on top some amazing geology, that certainly helps in this business. But I think -- I look across the board, and you're right. I see the efficiency gains. Some of the capital that we saw in the third quarter. And as we roll into fourth quarter, that is -- there's some efficiency being baked in from the drilling and from the completion side that as you know starts stacking capital up a little bit. We've considered that as we look ed at 2022. We haven't built additional efficiency gains into 2022. And as I mentioned on a previous question, we've actually acknowledged some pretty significant exposure for inflation. I think that's a prudent step to take.
John Freeman:
Thanks. Appreciate. Congratulations on a nice quarter.
Clay Gaspar:
Thanks, John.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Neal Dingmann with Truist Securities.
Neal Dingmann:
Good morning guys. I don't want to [indiscernible] but the shareholder [indiscernible]?return?, obviously, is the topic that is there these days and Rick, I remember meeting up with you several months ago early on and your comment at that time this is I think maybe even up to just the one variable dividend that you thought maybe you weren't being properly [indiscernible] on. I'm just wondering, as you said now with several under your belt, I think you've all been properly compensated for these and if not, would you consider lowering the formula or doing something different on the go-forward?
Rick Muncrief:
Neil, I think we have been rewarded to a degree, I think. But, if you'd asked Scott Coody, the number of phone calls, inbound phone calls that he's getting from more and more generalist investors and people quite honestly, he's never talk to or even heard of, that's extremely encouraging. So I think we have started to see the tip of the iceberg on our recognition, the appreciation of how, what a strong tool is, variable dividend is. So yes, I think if you go back to our conversation we had several months ago, I think it was still just a little bit of a wait-and-see and we talked, I think at that time about, Interestingly enough, if you're just a yield investor, you're out mining for yield and comparing opportunities. If you look at Bloomberg, Facet, places like that, it just picks up that fixed dividend and it doesn't always contemplate the variables or specials and those sorts of things. I think it's a little bit of a wait-and-see mode now. You fast forward to who we are today and I think we have seen some recognition of that, the feedback we get from our shareholders. We've seen the shareholder base actually change a fair amount. I think the calls we're getting would probably illustrate that, yeah, we're starting to get some get some recognition of the power of that -- the variable dividend. And certainly, I think when people open the envelope here at the end of the year on this $0.84 per share dividend, that's a nice one. So I think is going to continue to be very much appreciated. And so -- tip of the iceberg though.
Neal Dingmann:
No, I agree. It's good to hear because you guys have certainly been a leader in all this. And then my follow-up is maybe for you or Clay. You can't help but notice when you guys start the presentation on the slides, on Slide 4, having 5 distinct great areas, and Clay mentioned how strictly they compete for capital. So with that said, would you consider on some of those areas that maybe won't make it in your vote to the top line, would you fund those, bring somebody else in as a partner, somebody else to fund those that way, or would you more likely think about letting some of those assets go?
Rick Muncrief:
As we stated on several occasions, all 5 of our assets play a very key role in our going-forward strategy. You bring up something, could you bring in a partner? Yeah, absolutely. That's always something you can do. And the returns that they would get would be quite honestly phenomenal and the preference we would get would be phenomenal I think. So that's always an opportunity. We just wanted to do the right thing for the long-term success of the Company. I can tell you that we'll continue in all of our basins to find more and more creative ideas on the resource. This is the subsurface. So I think as we get into it, a little next year or 2, we'll always have those opportunities, and we'll evaluate them as they come along. But our phone does ring and so it is something that we contemplate on. Clay, you may want to comment on that.
Clay Gaspar:
Thanks, Rick. And Neil you know as well, Right? We our business folks and we really look for value creation opportunities, and sometimes that comes in the name of buying assets or selling assets, or doing creative structures. All of that's always on the table. We have to be very creative. What I like, something we've highlighted this quarter is our joint venture with Dow. That's a perfect alignment. We had a resource that we knew was not going to compete on a heads-up basis. We also had a little bit of a stagnant time, so we knew that there could be a little bit of kind of startup friction. We brought in a partner. They love it. It is a home run for Dow. It is a home run for us. And as we cycle through this, we're both winning and it's a great thing for the shareholders because ultimately that asset is being converted into value. So we love those kind of deals. Both legacy organizations have a very creative bend to them, and so I think that carries through to us going forward, so I look forward to more creative opportunities ahead.
Rick Muncrief:
Neal, I'll add one more thing to that point that Clay just made. And I think that if you look at the legacy of Devon, it's the Company that people want to work with. And so case in point is Dow partnership, that's the second one. The first one was launched back in the Barnett days. So once you prove that you're a viable partner and that you can make people some money, they will come back. I'd like to add that.
Neal Dingmann:
In great detail. Thanks guys.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Scott Hanold with RBC Capital Markets.
Scott Hanold:
Thanks and congrats on the quarter. I'm going to touch a little bit on 2020 to quickly here. But when you look at -- maybe can you -- give you -- if you can give us some perspective on how big than non-operated part of that budget is and obviously, outside of the Eagle Ford but in places like the Permian Basin and even Oklahoma, how much non-op spend do you have right now?
Clay Gaspar:
So Scott speaking of partnerships, we have a partnership in the Delaware where we have a partner that we have prescribed agreement in place where we can offload some of the non-op, mainly because a non-op is very hard to budget for. And speaking from our own prior experience, when you bust the budget and it's on somebody else's fourth quarter activity, it can be a little bit frustrating. So again, we have a creative structure in place, very beneficial to us, very beneficial to our partner that acts as a little bit of a shock absorber. So as we think about opportunities in other areas, and as commodity price increases, and we see some non-op partners lean into it a little bit, we'll consider those options. But I think it's probably $50 to $100 million around the Company is probably in the right ballpark.
Scott Hanold:
Got it. Makes quite a lot of sense. And obviously, you guys’ operational performance has been outstanding and it's just not the last quarter too, it's been for quite some time. And when you think about managing growth based on the oil macro right now, if you're in a position where you are outperforming next year, with a plan B to taper activity to stay within a flattish growth outlook, or would you drop Capex a little bit to stay flatter?
Clay Gaspar:
Yeah, I hear you. And I -- that's always the challenge. As we do better, become more efficient, the acceleration causes us to push towards the high side of the capital range. It's what we're experiencing the third and fourth quarter of this year. I hope we have that same problem. What I'll tell you is we're going to really try hard to honor the high side of that range. And if necessary, then we would trim back on activity to make sure we stayed inside that range. It's not something we take lightly. Like I said earlier, this is very disruptive to internal and external operations. And so we don't take that kind of operational scaling up and down lightly. I would tell you that it's something we plan to honor and to be very consistent in. And sometimes there's other creative ways to make sure that we still meet our capital guidance and continue the incredible consistency that we have rolling.
Scott Hanold:
Got it. I appreciate that. And 1 really quick one for Jeff. Jeff, you mentioned the tax attributes of around $3 billion and that seems to hold off through 2022. Is it fair to assume at strip, like sometimes in mid-2023, a lot of that is utilized?
Jeff Ritenour:
Yeah, that's right. And just to be clear, in 2022, at the current strip prices, we would expect to pay some cash taxes and that's the assumptions we outlined on the slide deck. But certainly as you move into 2023, if we maintain this price level through this next year, you're absolutely going to be in a cash tax position and you'll see that current tax ratio move higher.
Scott Hanold:
Okay. High-class problem. Thanks guys.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Matthew Portillo with TPH
Matthew Portillo:
Morning all. Maybe a question for Clay. Just on the PRB, was curious if you can give us an update on your learning, some of the delineation in the Niobrara, and what you would need to see from either a well productivity perspective or from a cost perspective to feed that asset more capital over the medium-term.
Clay Gaspar:
Yeah, Matt. This is one of the areas it doesn't get a lot of spotlight. So one, I appreciate the question and being able to talk about it. This is a massive oil in place resource. There's no question. As we think about historical exploration, exploring is figuring out if there is oil in place. We're past exploration. Now it's figuring out, how do made -- how do we develop this in an economically competitive way in the portfolio that we have. And therein lies the challenge. the current delivery on economics doesn't compete in with the Delaware Basin. Obviously that is a tough portfolio to compete in. So let's think about it. We've drilled a couple of 3-mile laterals that we brought on earlier this year. I can tell you they're -- they're really strong. We like the returns and they will compete their very strong economics. We've got a lot of repeatability on that. And so I look over to maybe how we did something with the Anadarko Basin. If it's not competing in our Basin, how do we creatively create value for shareholders for an asset that sits on our portfolio. And there's a number of ways to do that. Clearly, other industry peers are active in the Basin. We look to learn from them, we look to partner with them. All of that's on the table. Certainly, bringing in outside funding is on the table. The homework that we need to do is continue to improve on the repeatability and the certainty of the outcome. And that allows us to negotiate the best opportunity for us to really wring out the value.
Matthew Portillo:
Perfect and then, just maybe a follow-up question on assets specific capital allocation. You have some absolutely phenomenal results around the acreage in Lea and Eddy County, and then some of the State line acreage from WPX. Just curious how Felix stacks up today? What you learned from your updated development program there and how we should think about the return profile of that position in the Southern Delaware Basin versus your more northerly acreage.
Clay Gaspar:
Yeah. Good question. As we draw the circles, we have some [indiscernible] development, that's in what we call the monument draw, which is mostly Felix. The [indiscernible] stuff was kind of in between state line and the eastern most side of the basin. That pad recently came on during the third quarter. Big development, I think 10 or 12 wells, outstanding results, so we're excited about that. Clearly as you move further east, things just get more challenging, the steering gets a little more difficult, the economics get a little bit more difficult and again, in this super competitive portfolio that we have, it's just the eastern most stuff is not commanding the most capital today. So as we look at the depth of inventory in Lea and Eddy, and really loving counties, that's where the lion's share of our capital activity will be.
Matthew Portillo:
Thank you.
Scott Coody:
Looks like we are at the end of our time slot today, we really appreciate everyone's interest in Devon and I know we didn't get to everyone in the queue today. So if you have any further follow-up questions, please don't hesitate to reach out to the Investor Relations team at any time. Thank you. Have a good day.
Operator:
This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Welcome to Devon Energy's Second Quarter Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] This call is being recorded. I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Scott Coody, Vice President of Investor Relations. Sir, you may begin.
Scott Coody:
Good morning, and thank you to everyone for joining us on the call today. Last night, we issued an earnings release and presentation that cover our results for the quarter and our forward-looking outlook. Throughout the call today, we will make references to our earnings presentation to support our prepared remarks, and these slides can be found on our website. Also joining me on the call today are Rick Muncrief, our President and CEO; Clay Gaspar, our Chief Operating Officer; Jeff Ritenour, our Chief Financial Officer; and a few other members of our senior management team. Comments today will contain plans, forecasts, estimates and forward-looking statements under U.S. securities law. These comments are subject to assumptions, risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ from our forward-looking statements. Please take note of the cautionary language and risk factors provided in our SEC filings and earnings materials. With that, I'll turn the call over to Rick.
Rick Muncrief:
Thank you, Scott. We sincerely appreciate everyone taking the time to join us this morning on the webcast. Devon's second quarter can best be defined as one of comprehensive execution across every element of our disciplined strategy that resulted in expanded margins, growth in free cash flow and the return of significant value to our shareholders through higher dividends and the reduction of debt. Following our transformative merger that closed earlier this year, I'm very pleased with the progress the team has made, and our second quarter results demonstrate the impressive momentum our business has quickly established. Even today, as we celebrate Devon's 50th anniversary as a company this year, we're only getting started, and our talented team is eager, energized and extremely motivated to win. As investors seek exposure to commodity-oriented names, it is important to recognize that Devon is a premier energy company and a must-own name in this space. We have the right mix of assets, proven management, financial strength and a shareholder-friendly business model designed to lead the energy industry in capital discipline and dividends. Now turning to Slide 4. The power of Devon's portfolio was showcased by our second quarter portfolio was showcased by our second quarter results as we continue to deliver on exactly what we promised to do both operationally and financially. Efficiencies drove capital spending 9% below guidance. Strong well productivity resulted in production volumes above our midpoint. The capture of merger-related synergies drove sharp declines in corporate cost. These efforts translated into a sixfold increase in free cash flow from just a quarter ago. And with this excess cash, we increased our dividend payout by 44% and we retired $710 million of low premium debt in the quarter. Now, Jeff will cover the return of capital to shareholders in more detail later, but investors should take note, this systematic return of value to the shareholders is a clear differentiator for Devon. Now moving to Slide 5. While I'm very pleased with the results our team had delivered year-to-date, the setup for the second half of the year is even better with our operations scale that generate increasing amounts of free cash flow. This improved outlook is summarized in a white box at the top left of this slide. With the trifecta of an improving production profile, lower capital and reduced corporate cost, Devon is positioned to deliver an annualized free cash flow yield in the second half of the year of approximately 20% at today's pricing. I believe it is of utmost importance to reiterate that even with this outstanding free cash flow outlook, there is no change to our capital plan this year. Turning your attention to Slide 7. Now with this powerful stream of free cash flow, our dividend policy provides us the flexibility to return even more cash to shareholders than any company in the entire S&P 500 Index. To demonstrate this point, we've included a simple comparison of our annualized dividend yield in the second half of 2021, assuming a 50% variable dividend payout. Now as you can see, Devon's implied dividend yield is not only best-in-class in the E&P space, but we also possess the top rank yield in the entire S&P 500 Index by a wide margin. In fact, at today's pricing, our yield is more than 7x higher than the average company that is represented in the S&P 500 Index. Furthermore, our dividend is comfortably funded within free cash flow and is accompanied by a strong balance sheet that is projected to have a leverage ratio of less than 1 turn by year-end. Investors need to take notice, Devon offers a truly unique investment opportunity for the near 0 interest rate world that we live in today. Now looking beyond Devon to the broader E&P space, I'm also encouraged this earnings season by the announcement from Pioneer on their variable dividend implementation as well as a growing number of other peers who have elected to prioritize higher dividend payouts. These disciplined actions will further enhance the investment thesis for our industry, paving the way for higher fund flows as investors rediscover the attractive value proposition of the E&Ps pace. Now moving to Slide 10. While the remainder of 2021 is going to be outstanding for Devon, simply put, the investment thesis only gets stronger as I look ahead to next year. We should have one of the most advantaged cash flow growth outlooks in the industry as we capture the full benefit of merger-related cost synergies, restructuring expenses roll off and our hedge book vastly improves. At today's prices, these structural tailwinds could result in more than $1 billion of incremental cash flow in 2022. To put it in perspective, this incremental cash flow would represent cash flow per share growth of more than 20% year-over-year, if you held all other constants -- all other factors constant. Now while it's still too early to provide formal production and capital targets for next year, there will be no shift to our strategy. We will continue to execute on our financially driven model that prioritizes free cash flow generation. Given the transparent framework that underpins our capital allocation, our behavior will be very predictable as we continue to limit reinvestment rates and drive per share growth through margin expansion and cost reductions. We have no intention of adding incremental barrels into the market until demand side fundamentals sustainably recover and it becomes evident that OPEC+ spare oil capacity is effectively absorbed by the world markets. The bottom line is we are unwavering in our commitment to lead the industry with disciplined capital allocation and higher dividends. And with that, I will now turn the call over to Clay to cover some of the great operational results we delivered in the past quarter.
Clay Gaspar:
Thanks, Rick, and good morning, everyone. As Rick touched on from our operations perspective, Devon continues to deliver outstanding results. Our Q2 results demonstrate the impressive operational momentum we've established in our business, the power of Devon's asset portfolio and the quality of our people delivering these results. I want to pause and congratulate the entire Devon team for the impressive work overcoming the challenges of the pandemic and the merger while not only keeping the wheels on but re-questioning everything we do and ultimately building better processes along the way. We've come a long way on building the go-forward strategy, execution plan and culture, and I see many more significant wins on the path ahead. Turning your attention to Slide 12. My key message here is that we're well on our way to meeting all of our capital objectives for 2021. At the bottom left of this slide, you can see that my confidence in the '21 program is underpinned by our strong operational accomplishments in the second quarter. With activity focused on low-risk development, we delivered capital spending results that were 9% below plan, well productivity in the Delaware drove oil volumes above guidance and field level synergies improved operating costs. While the operating results year-to-date have been great, the remainder of the year looks equally strong, a true test of asset quality, execution and corporate cost structure proves out in sustainably low reinvestment rates, steady production and significant free cash flow. This is exactly what we're delivering at Devon. We plan to continue to operate 16 rigs for the balance of the year and deliver approximately 150 new wells to production in the second half of 2021. Now let's turn to Slide 13, where we can discuss our world-class Delaware Basin asset, which is the driving force behind Devon's operational performance. During the quarter, our capital program consisted of 13 operated rigs and 4 dedicated frac crews, resulting in 88 new wells that commenced first production. This level of capital activity was concentrated around the border of New Mexico and Texas and accounted for roughly 80% of our total company-wide capital investment in the quarter. As a result of this investment, Delaware Basin's high-margin oil production continue to rapidly advance, growing 22% on a year-over-year basis. While we had great results across our acreage position, a top contributor to the strong volume were several large pads within our Stateline and Cotton Draw areas that accounted for more than 30 new wells in the quarter. This activity was weighted towards development work in the Upper Wolfcamp, but we also had success co-developing multiple targets in the Bone Spring within our Stateline area. The initial 30-day rates from activity at Stateline and Cotton Draw averaged north of 3,300 BOE per day, and recoveries are on track to exceed 1.5 million barrels of oil equivalent. With drilling and completion costs coming in at nearly $1 million below predrill expectations, our rates of return at Cotton Draw and Stateline are projected to approach 200% at today's strip pricing. While we've all grown weary of quoted well returns, this is the best way that I can provide insight to you on what we're seeing in real time and what will be flowing through the cash flow statements in the coming quarters. While we lack precision in these early estimates, I can tell you, these are phenomenal investments and will yield significant value to the bottom line of Devon, and ultimately, to the shareholders through our cash return model. And lastly, on this slide, I want to cover the recent Bone Spring appraisal success that we had in the Potato Basin with our 3-well Yukon Gold project. Historically, we focused our efforts in the Wolfcamp formation in this region, and Yukon was our first operated test of the second Bone Spring interval in this area. Given the strong results from Yukon plus additional well control from non-operating activity, this will be a new landing zone that works its way into the Delaware Basin capital allocation mix going forward. This is another example of how the Delaware Basin continues to give. This new landing zone required no additional land investment, very little incremental infrastructure, and as a result, the well returns have a direct path to the bottom line of Devon. Moving to Slide 14. Another highlight associated with the Delaware Basin activity was the improvement in operational efficiencies and the margin expansion we delivered in the quarter. Beginning on the left-hand side, our D&C costs have improved to $543 per lateral foot in the quarter, a decline of more than 40% from just a few years ago. To deliver on this positive rate of change, the team achieved record-setting drill times in both Bone Spring and Wolfcamp formations with spud release times and our best wells improving to less than 12 days. Our completions work improved to an average of nearly 2,000 feet per day in the quarter. I want to congratulate the team, and I fully expect that these improved cycle times will be a tailwind to our results for the second half of the year. Shifting to the middle of the slide, we continue to make progress capturing operational cost synergies in the field. With solid results we delivered in the second quarter, LOE and GP&T costs improved 7% year-over-year. To achieve this positive result, we adopted the best and most economic practices from both legacy companies and leveraged our enhanced purchasing power in the Delaware to meaningfully reduce costs associated with several categories, including chemicals, water disposal, compression and contract labor. Importantly, these results were delivered by doing business in the right way with our strong safety performance in the quarter and combined with company delivered some of the meaningful environmental improvements over a year-over-year basis. And my final comment on this slide -- on the chart to the far right, the cumulative impact of Devon's strong operational performance resulted in significant margin expansion compared to both last quarter and on a year-over-year basis. Importantly, our Delaware Basin operations are geared for this trend to continue over the remainder of the year and beyond. Moving to Slide 15. While the Delaware Basin is clearly the growth engine of our company, we have several high-quality assets in the oil fairway of the U.S. that generate substantial amounts of free cash flow. These assets may not capture many headlines but they underpin the success of our sustainable free cash flow-generating strategy. In the Delaware Basin, cash flow nearly doubled in the quarter on the strength of natural gas and NGLs. our Dow joint venture activity is progressing quite well, and we're bringing on the first pad of new wells this quarter. The Williston continues to provide phenomenal returns and at today's pricing, this asset is on track to generate nearly $700 million of free cash flow for the year. In the Eagle Ford, we have reestablished momentum with 21 wells brought online year-to-date, resulting in second quarter volumes advancing 20%. And in the Powder River, we're encouraged with continued industry activity and how -- and evaluating how we create the most value from this asset. We have a creative and commercially focused team working with this asset, many of which bring fresh set of eyes on how we approach this very substantial oil-rich acreage position. Overall, another strong quarter of execution and each of these asset teams did a great job delivering within our diversified portfolio. And lastly, on Slide 16, I want to conclude my prepared remarks with a few thoughts on the environmental performance targets we recently published. The team here at Devon takes great personal pride in delivering affordable and reliable energy that powers every other industry out there as well as the incredible quantity and quality of life we appreciate today. We absolutely believe that in addition to meeting the world's growing energy demand, we must also deliver our products in an environmentally and commercially sustainable way. As you can see with the goals outlined on this slide, we're committing to taking a leadership role by targeting to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 50% by 2030 and achieving net zero emissions for Scope 1 and 2 by 2050. A critically important component of this carbon reduction strategy is to improve our methane emissions intensity by 65% by 2030 from a baseline of 2019. This emissions reduction target involves a range of innovations, including advanced remote leak detection technologies and breakthrough designs like our latest low-E facilities in the Delaware Basin. We also plan to constructively engage with upstream and downstream partners to improve our environmental performance across the value chain. While it's a journey, not a destination, environmental excellence is foundational to Devon. With that, I'll turn the call over to Jeff for the financial review.
Jeff Ritenour:
Thanks, Clay. My comments today will be focused on our financial results for the quarter and the next steps in the execution of our financial strategy. A great place to start today is with a review of Devon's strong financial performance in the second quarter, where we achieved significant growth in both operating cash flow and free cash flow. Operating cash flow reached $1.1 billion, an 85% increase compared to the first quarter of this year. This level of cash flow generation comfortably exceeded our capital spending requirements, resulting in free cash flow of $589 million for the quarter. As described earlier by Rick and Clay, our improving capital efficiency and cost control drove these outstanding results, along with the improved commodity prices realized in the second quarter. Overall, it was a great quarter for Devon, and these results showcased the power of our financially driven business model. Turning your attention to Slide 6. With the free cash flow generated in the quarter, we're proud to deliver on our commitment to higher cash returns through our fixed plus variable dividend framework. Our dividend framework is foundational to our capital allocation process, providing us the flexibility to return cash to shareholders across a variety of market conditions. With this differentiated framework, we've returned more than $400 million of cash to our shareholders in the first half of the year, which exceeds the entire payout from all of last year. The second half of this year is shaping up to be even more impressive. This is evidenced by the announcement last night that our dividend payable on September 30 was raised for the third consecutive quarter to $0.49 per share. This dividend represents a 44% increase versus last quarter and is more than a fourfold increase compared to the period a year ago. On Slide 8, in addition to higher dividends, another way we have returned value to shareholders is through our recent efforts to reduce debt and enhance our investment-grade financial strength. In the second quarter, we retired $710 million of debt, bringing our total debt retired year-to-date to over $1.2 billion. With this disciplined management of our balance sheet, we're well on our way to reaching our net debt-to-EBITDA leverage target of 1 turn or less by year-end. Our low leverage is also complemented by a liquidity position of $4.5 billion and a debt profile with no near-term maturities. This balance sheet strength is absolutely a competitive advantage for Devon that lowers our cost of capital and optimizes our financial flexibility through the commodity cycle. Looking ahead to the second half of the year, with the increasing amounts of free cash flow our business is projected to generate, we'll continue to systematically return value to our shareholders through both higher dividend payouts and by further deleveraging our investment-grade balance sheet. As always, the first call in our free cash flow is to fully fund our fixed dividend of $0.11 per share. After funding the fixed dividend, up to 50% of the excess free cash flow in any given quarter will be allocated to our variable dividend. The other half of our excess free cash flow will be allocated to improving our balance sheet and reducing our net debt. Once we achieve our leverage target later this year, this tranche of excess free cash flow that was previously reserved for balance sheet improvement has the potential to be reallocated to higher dividend payouts or opportunistic share buybacks. should our shares remain undervalued relative to peers in the broader market. So in summary, our financial strategy is working well. We have excellent liquidity and our business is generating substantial free cash flow. The go-forward business will have an ultra low leverage ratio of a turn or less by year-end, and we're positioned to substantially grow our dividend payout over the rest of the year. With that, I'll now turn the call back over to Rick for some closing comments.
Rick Muncrief:
Thank you, Jeff. Great job. I would like to close today by reiterating a few key thoughts. Devon is a premier energy company, and we are proving this with our consistent results. Our unique business model is designed to reward shareholders with higher dividend payouts. This is resulting in a dividend yield that's the highest in the entire S&P 500 Index. Our generous payout is funded entirely from free cash flow and backstopped by an investment-grade balance sheet. And our financial outlook only improves as I look to the remainder of this year and into 2022. With the increasing amounts of free cash flow generated, we're committed to doing exactly what we promised, and that is to lead the industry in capital discipline and dividends. And with that, I will now turn the call back over to Scott for Q&A.
Scott Coody:
Thanks, Rick. We'll now open the call to Q&A. [Operator Instructions] With that, operator, we'll take our first question.
Operator:
Your first question is from Doug Leggate with Bank of America.
JohnAbbott:
This is John Abbott for Doug Leggate. Our first question is on M&A. There has been some recent press speculation out there that you are the potential bidder in a process. Now recognizing that you probably won't comment on any ongoing potential transaction, could you just sort of discuss in general what you would see as the benefits to Devon of a large-scale acquisition given the running room that you already have from legacy Devon and from WPX?
RickMuncrief:
John, thanks for the question. It's a great question, great perspective. And just fundamentally, we continue to have a very, very high bar, and we have a wonderful business post-merger. And so for us, the way we think about it is anything we evaluate, and that's really on the buying or selling side, it's got to be immediately accretive. It's got to have compelling industrial logic. And we have tried to be really clear on this, but it absolutely has to feel within our investment framework and makes us even better, even stronger. And I'll just go back to just a fundamental message today. It's got a -- anything we have to consider has got to help us get stronger on an outlook that says, look, if we just keep volumes flat, we're going to add an additional $1 billion of cash flow next year. And then when you look at that on a cash flow per share base, that's 20% growth, '22 over '21. So that's really how we view it, and that hasn't really changed. We've got a tremendous inventory. We've got a tremendous business, and we continue to have a very high bar. And we're going to be very, very disciplined in anything we do.
JohnAbbott:
Appreciate it. And then for our follow-up question here, its on your hedging strategy going forward here. I mean you've historically had a systematic component to your hedging strategy. How are you thinking about hedging going forward from here?
A -RickMuncrief:
I'm going to have Jeff answer that. Go ahead, Jeff.
JeffRitenour:
Yes. This is Jeff. Yes, happy to provide some color on that. As you probably saw in our prepared materials and what we disclosed last night, we've not added any material incremental hedges since our last call, since last quarter. Going forward, we don't expect that to change. Given where we are in the cycle, given where we are with our business, the balance sheet, the great shape that we have the balance sheet in, the low reinvestment ratios that we've talked about, which we expect to continue going forward, and frankly, just the low-cost structure and breakevens that we have, it's created a margin of safety for us in our business that allows us to be less aggressive on the hedging front. And so we really don't feel the need to add any incremental hedges at this point in time. We'll obviously monitor that, and we certainly talk about it and debate it on a weekly basis here within the walls of Devon and could certainly change our view at some point in the future. But where we sit today, given the strength of our business and projected business and the balance sheet, we really don't feel like we need to add any incremental hedges in the near term.
Operator:
Your next question is from Brian Downey with Citigroup.
BrianDowney:
Jeff, it sounds like from your prepared comments raising the 50% excess free cash flow payout cap may be considered at some point, given the leverage and maturity schedule outlook here. You mentioned it, but share repurchases are still listed at the bottom of your free cash flow priority slide in the appendix. Has that repurchase appetite changed much at all on the margin given the recent equity performance versus commodity price and Devon's forward yield on offer? And if you were to consider repurchases, do you anticipate that being more systematic or opportunistic?
JeffRitenour:
Yes, Brian, I appreciate the question. I would say the share repurchases is certainly moving up the list of options for us, potential options for us as we move through the back half of this year. I talked about it in my prepared remarks, and we've talked about it for a couple of quarters now. Our first focus is on reaching our leverage target, which you all have heard me speak to in the past. We really think about that on a $55 oil price. And so if you do the math on $55 oil, in our current oil production, you get to somewhere around $4 billion, $4. 8 billion, $4.5 billion, $4.8 billion EBITDA. We currently have $6.5 billion of gross debt, cash balance of $1.5 billion. We need a couple of hundred million more dollars of cash to get us to that net debt of kind of a 1x ratio. I really expect that's going to happen in this quarter. And as I mentioned in our prepared remarks, that puts us in a position to think about other ways to return more of that excess free cash flow to shareholders. And so things on the table are absolutely an increase in the variable dividend percentage. We're going to maintain the framework that we've outlined and don't expect that to change going into the future, but we could absolutely supplement it with some incremental variable dividends and potentially some incremental share repurchases. I think the other thing we'll look at as we get further into the year and probably into 2022 is the potential to increase the fixed dividend as well. So those are all the things that we'll be considering with our Board as we move into the back half of this year.
BrianDowney:
Great. And then maybe one for Clay. Clay, in the Anadarko Basin, you mentioned bringing online a half dozen or so legacy Meramec DUCs. Anything you're seeing from those production results, completion costs, or early days of the drilling JV that maybe changes your view of Anadarko returns or how it ultimately fits within the portfolio?
ClayGaspar:
Yes, Brian, just between you and I, I'm actually pretty positive on the Anadarko Basin. I have been for quite a while. I think it's underappreciated, generally speaking. But it's a pretty tough hill to climb to compete in our investment portfolio. So I think the team there is taking exactly the right approach. We've entered this joint venture. We've got some promoted money. It allows the investments to compete, feel really good about the investments that we're making. And then meanwhile, we're doing exactly what you're asking about is we're getting a modern look at today's well cost, today's completion designs and the well results that we're generating. So still pretty early days on the well results. But I'm very encouraged. The Miller pad is the one we're bringing on this quarter. That's the first one that we've drilled this year, bringing on -- that's really exciting. Looking forward to those opportunities, both Woodford and Meramec opportunities. But I can tell you this, the well costs are phenomenal. Really excited about that. And as you know, $1 saved on well cost is a direct dollar to present value. So it's a holistic look and we look forward to seeing more from that team.
Operator:
Your next question is from Nitin Kumar with Wells Fargo.
NitinKumar:
RickMuncrief:
Yes. I want to have Jeff weigh in and help me on fielding the question, and appreciate them. Yes, I think Delaware is going to continue to be the workhorse in our portfolio. I don't see that changing. As Clay just talked about, we've got some great investment opportunities in our other basins. But the reality is the Delaware is really, really hard to compete with internally. And so you'll continue to see the lion's share of our capital program being allocated to the Delaware Basin. I don't see that really changing anytime in the near future. So Jeff, you maybe want to talk about commodity price assumptions that we have?
JeffRitenour:
Yes. I appreciate the question. And we -- as you might guess, we look at multiple sensitivities and evaluate different scenarios and price decks that might come at us. I would say foundationally though, we really think about $55 oil as kind of being a normalized price and then try to manage our business around that. We're in a position today with the low breakeven that we have in our business, even at $55 oil, we can accomplish all of our financial objectives and then some. So we feel like we're in a really good spot. But we certainly do evaluate the strip and even higher and even lower price scenarios as we work through our budgeting process with our Board.
NitinKumar:
Great. And my follow-up, you were 9% below expectations on capital spending in the second quarter. We're expecting an improvement through the rest of the year, but you left capital budget for 2021 unchanged. If I could, is that a function of any inflation that you're seeing? Or could you just help us understand the math there?
ClayGaspar:
Yes, thanks. This is Clay. I'll respond to that, Nitin. I think the idea is that we've set a course for capital. I think we're still very much inside the planned activity levels. In fact, we've accelerated a little bit just from drilling faster. We're not going to drop rigs and balance activity because of that. And so what it does is it draws a little bit more natural activity into the fourth quarter. But that said, I think it's -- I think you can kind of continue to see a very line of sight runway. I think there will be some continued improvements. I think we will also see some headwind from inflation start to creep in. I think on balance, I still feel good -- really good about reiterating the '21 capital plan. And we'll see how the team continues to perform throughout the year.
Operator:
Your next question is from Neil Mehta with Goldman.
NeilMehta:
JeffRitenour:
Yes, absolutely, Neil. That's exactly right. I mean given the strength that we've seen in pricing thus far. And as Clay mentioned earlier, the capital efficiencies that we've seen and continued cost reductions, you marry that with the fact that we've got incremental hedges rolling off into the third and fourth quarter. All those are going to be tailwinds to our free cash flow in the quarter. And my absolute expectation is to see a higher variable dividend in the third quarter on a relative basis.
RickMuncrief:
Neil, this is Rick. I'll augment that a little bit. I think we need to just remind everyone that we were about 50% hedged on crude this year, but the profile of that is about 60% first half, 40% in the second half. And currently, we're about 20% hedged as we look into '22.
NeilMehta:
That's great, Rick. And just a follow-up here is, as you guys think about the payout, which right now is 50%, I think you've -- the breadcrumbs will indicate that you think there is a pathway to move that higher. Can you just talk about what the milestones we should be watching for to see when we should start to think about taking up that payout ratio from 50% to something higher, and any sense of what the ultimate destination would be in the dream world of what the right payout ratio could look like?
JeffRitenour:
Yes. No, this is Jeff again. Again, as I mentioned earlier, that's something we're absolutely going to debate and talk about with the Board as we move into the third and fourth quarter. Again, I want to reiterate, we want to make sure we get to our debt target that I mentioned earlier, that 1x turn, which I fully expect, given where prices are, we'll accomplish that here in the third quarter. But as we move into our discussions into the fall with our Board around the budget for 2022 and the potential outcome around share repurchases, the fixed dividend and incremental variable dividends on top of the 50%, I think those are all things we'll talk about here over the next, call it, 3 months and would expect to give you all more color as we move through the year.
Operator:
Your next question is from Matthew Portillo with TPH.
MatthewPortillo:
This one might be for Clay. Just wondering if you could talk about some of the strong results you're seeing in the Bone Spring around Stateline and how that may impact your future inventory and development plans going forward?
ClayGaspar:
Yes. Thanks for the question, Matt. It's really exciting. So we -- the original acquisition was based on really the Wolfcamp A. We knew there was additional upside, but really pending the acquisition economics and the forward plan, it was really on kind of that Greater or Upper Wolfcamp landing zones. And that's been amazing. The homerun is really where you get these additional landing zones essentially for free, right? And that's what was so intriguing about the original entry into the Delaware. And as I mentioned in my prepared remarks, just the continued dividends that are paid from it. So we there was opportunity in the second Bone. We had drilled some early wells. But as we've refined the petrophysics and really dialed into the proper landing zones, we've been very encouraged, at least 3, maybe 4 landing zones in the Bone Spring. And the real questions have been and what we've been working on is proper spacing come laterally, but also in a vertical sense. How much of this is in hydraulic communication. And we're starting to kind of nail that down, and now you're starting to see us move into the development mode, which is just significant upside on that -- the incredibly rich infrastructure right there. And I talk about infrastructure, it's everything from owning the electrical infrastructure, water disposal system, our partnership with Howard Energy to relever all of those benefits. And then also recall that we purchased 15,000 surface acres over this whole area. And so again, as we continue to rediscover refined new opportunities kind of little exploration under our own feet, this is some of the most accretive value creation for the organization, without question.
MatthewPortillo:
That's great. And then maybe just another follow-up on the operational side. The WPX team was working to widen spacing designs in parts of the Delaware before the merger with Devon. I guess, with both of the teams now combined, could you talk about what you've learned so far from a completion and spacing optimization perspective and how that might influence your results moving forward?
ClayGaspar:
Yes. This is one of the kind of the hidden wins of what we talk about synergies. We can put a number on so many things, and we've ascribed this $600 million, which, by the way, I feel very confident in achieving by year-end. But I think these are the kind of things that are synergistic in nature. You've got 2 really, really smart teams that have been trying to solve this problem independently now have the opportunity to really learn together, share data, share resources, share lessons learned, wins, losses along the way, and it really kind of supercharges that. So I don't know that we've moved dramatically in any one area around spacing, but I think what's really interesting is to watch the continued improvement on the cost side of the equation. We're drilling wells in 12 days, 2-mile laterals in some pretty challenging areas. That's phenomenal. That adds incredible efficiency on the front end of the economics. The capital and the design associated with the completion is really where these wells will start to separate, and that's well placement stimulation design and all of those attributes that go in. We're testing -- we're turning a lot of knobs in that space. Too early to call on kind of what is the go-forward consistent plan across the whole Delaware Basin. My intuition will tell me that it's multiple go-forward plans in different areas. We'll continue to learn. We're looking at a lot of new technologies, and at the same time, continuing to get better from an ESG front. And I can tell you that's another one of the hidden wins from synergies, we're making great strides on that. And I think it's a very much a beneficial symbiotic relationship there as well.
Operator:
Your next question is from Neal Dingmann with Truist Securities.
NealDingmann:
Two questions that's kind of both been asked, I want to ask in different ways. Maybe, Rick, first for you, just first question is maybe on free cash flow allocation. I guess my question around that is, obviously, you're doing a great job on the variable dividend than the first out of the gate. But I'm just wondering, one, do you think you're being appropriately rewarded for that variable and just the total bills in general? And to me, kind of combined with that, what appears to be your stock trading at a discount to NAV, maybe why not do some more buybacks near term given that discount?
RickMuncrief:
Yes, Neal, that's a question that we all debate here internally. And I'm not convinced that we've seen that yet. I think there's a question around the variable dividend about consistency, and you get quarter after quarter of some really nice dividends. I'm encouraged by the actions of our -- some of our other industry peers. And I think what you're going to find is that now Devon is not just being treated as a one-off, it's truly a movement within our sector of getting more cash back to shareholders. And I think that's a good thing. So when you look at it from that perspective, I think we will start seeing better equity performance. But if not, certainly, the discussion we had about share repurchases really comes to light and it's great to have optionality. So you heard Jeff a while ago talk about the ability to ratchet up the variable dividend with the stronger cash flows, we also would -- from an opportunistic standpoint, have the ability to certainly repurchase the equity. And the third thing, I think that when we think about capital allocation, it's a little more longer term. But we don't have any near-term debt maturities. We do have a couple of hundred million due, I think, here in 2023. But we have an incremental $800 million of callable debt in the next 24 months. And so we have options. And Neal, that's what I love about our portfolio, our strategy, the optionality, strong balance sheet. All that is going to, I think, really make for an exciting story over the next few years and something I'm very, very pleased with how it's come together with the merger. So I think suffice to say, if we don't see the equity performing to the level that we feel it should be, it's going to be a really good discussion with our Board. And I think they'd be very supportive of us pursuing opportunistic share repurchases.
NealDingmann:ClayGaspar:
Operator:
Your next question is from David Heikkinen with Pickering Energy Partners.
DavidHeikkinen:
JeffRitenour:
Thanks. I appreciate the question. I think it was very important to us not to just set a very long-range target and say, trust us, we'll get there. So we said intermediate kind of ranges goals as well. And so we have intermediate steps around 2025 and 2030 that are peppered throughout the document. And I can tell you we're well on our way. I mean just to point to some of the areas I think about one of the most important is around greenhouse gas emissions. And I think of the Southern Delaware, which is the legacy WPX asset, we were about 5% a couple of years ago. We averaged about 2.5% last year. State-of-the-art today, last probably quarter, we are somewhere between 1% and 1.5%. And so that's very encouraging. There's a lot of meat on that bone, because when you compare it to the legacy Devon asset, just across the border, they've been running about 0.5%. And so we see line of sight to where that Southern Delaware needs to go. We just need to do a little bit more work on some of the infrastructure, some of the cultural mindset about how we flow back what we're going to do, flow back and build the infrastructure and how we manage the wells themselves. I think about the other areas, both South Texas and Mid-Continent are phenomenal in that regard. Powder is a little bit more challenged. The big challenge is the Williston. And for all the Williston players, you hear the same story. It is a real challenging infrastructure asset. That has continued to be the case. I can tell you we are pushing really, really hard on that. We've dropped the emissions by about 1/3 over the last year, but it's still nothing to brag about, okay? It's still about a 10% number, which we need to continually improve on. We're investing in that. We're leveraging all of the relationships we have to continue to drive that down. And we will achieve our '25 and '30 targets as we've set out, but there's a lot of work to do between now and then.
Operator:
Your next question is from Paul Cheng with Scotiabank.
PaulCheng:JeffRitenour:
PaulCheng:
For $70 of oil prices, Jeff, that when -- in terms of the cash tax paying, if that trajectory has been changed from what you have said in the past?
JeffRitenour:
Yes, Paul okay. I'm with you. Yes, really short answer is no material change from what we talked about on the previous call. If you'll recall, what we -- current projection, we think we'll enter into next year with probably over $3 billion of federal NOLs. So that puts us in a pretty good position to shield ourselves from taxes in the near term. Obviously, price deck is, as you highlighted in your question, can have a material impact to that. Our current expectation, though, given the NOL position that we have and our current projections, even at these higher prices, we really don't expect to be a material cash taxpayer for a number of years. So again, that's going to be consistent with what we talked about in the past and no material changes there. Obviously, one of the things that we're evaluating and thinking about in the broader macro specific to the tax -- our specific tax position, and then just more broadly is any changes that the administration may make as it relates to IDC or any of the other specifics around how we would calculate our tax position. Again, no new news on that front. We've not gotten any better clarity as to the direction of the administration where they may head on that front. But we've certainly been running the sensitivities and evaluating the potential outcomes. Again, given our tax attributes today, we really feel like we're in a good spot and don't expect taxes to be a detrimental impact to our free cash flow story for a number of years.
ClayGaspar:
Yes, Paul, I'll pick up. This is Clay on the inflation question. Was there something else first?
PaulCheng:
Yes. And then how about the earnout accounting, given your commodity prices that you should be able to get some money from the earnout?
JeffRitenour:
Paul, I think you're asking about the contingent payments specific to our Barnett transaction? Yes, absolutely. So we -- the one item you probably saw in the quarter as we adjusted our expectation there, given the higher prices. And so as we look at -- again, this is -- I'm going to use the forward strip as the baseline here. But as we look at 2022 -- or excuse me, 2021 in the results and the prices that we've seen to date, we would expect to receive a contingent payment on our Barnett transaction. It could be in the ballpark of $40 million. So that would be incremental cash that would be coming in the door to us as a result of that transaction.
PaulCheng:
And does you have any P&L impact?
JeffRitenour:
P&L impact? Yes. No, we've adjusted that contingent payment in our results for the second quarter, so you shouldn't see a big impact going forward.
ClayGaspar:
And Paul, it's Clay. I'll pick up on your original question 2 around inflation. My belief is inflation is real. I appreciate the Fed Chairman saying there's some transitory things happening in the macro sense. But I think you go anywhere, talk to any business owner, and there is -- there are struggles to get employees and things working, even trying to buy relatively routine thing. So I think there's one level of inflation kind of in a macro sense. And then specific to our industry, higher commodity price obviously is driving some increase in activity. The question I have, and I think is still yet to prove out is the historical correlation between commodity price and rig activity is disconnected. And that's a good thing from the sense of our industry discipline. And so I think what we need to do is not necessarily focus on the commodity price, but it's more of the resulting activity. Certainly, some of the private folks have picked up more rigs differentially relative to the larger publics. I think as the larger publics continue to hold the line on disciplined cash flow returning sustainability in that regard, I think we'll continue to see moderate growth on activity. So what that means to us is summing those 2 things up, certainly, we will see some inflation. We're seeing it now. We have certainly baked that into our '21 expectations guidance. I have a lot of confidence in, again, being able to meet our guidance for the balance of the year. As we start to look forward and really trying to hone in on '22, I think there's still some questions out there. Clearly, we expect to see some inflation. I'm not ready to prepare and put a number on to it today. We're just starting our really deep conversations in a long-term sense with the Board as we work through capital investment levels, some of the things we've talked about on this call and certainly an incredibly important part of that math is inflation. So we see it coming. We're prepared for it. We're working to mitigate as best we can. We believe our relationships and the partnership that we can offer from a very consistent and robust program with a company that does what it says it's going to do, I think, offers a lot of value to our service company partners. And end of the day, we will see some higher costs, but not prepared to really point to a number just yet.
Operator:
Your next question is from Scott Hanold with RBC Capital Markets.
ScottHanold:
RickMuncrief:
Yes, Scott, one thing -- this is Rick. One thing that we constantly try to keep a pulse on and that is investor preferences. And that's not always easy. Depends on who you ask sometimes. And so from our perspective, we think a balanced approach is a pretty good way to look at it. And you may be a little cross-threaded 1 quarter or 2 quarters, but over time, we think that's the best way to do it. And that's why you heard us talk about optionality. I think more near term, I think the higher dividends show me the money now has been, I think, the lion's share of the feedback that we've been hearing from shareholders. And I think that as we look at our shareholder group, we think that it's continued to strengthen as we're getting really some nice shareholders across the line, and really pleased with that. Now I think you'll also hear over time, maybe more comments and more perspectives on a little longer term approach. And I think that's an outcome of maybe some more stability in some commodity prices. And when I think commodity prices, I'm thinking about not only crude oil, which drives most of our revenues, but I can tell you, NGLs are -- we have some really, really nice exposure to the NGLs from basically all three of our basins, nice place to be. And so that -- if you get into a situation where even with your best efforts of getting cash back to shareholders, significant amount of cash to shareholders, if you still think you're being not rewarded properly with your equity performance, that really sets you up for some opportunistic share repurchases. And that's something that even though there were a 20% growth next year on the cash flow per share, you were on both the numerator and the denominator, not a bad way to go. And that's how you can deliver some growth, because I think the broader market continues to reward growth. Our sector, we just can't -- we're not going to get rewarded for growth right now, as we've all talked about for the last year or so. So how can you do things opportunistically both on the numerator and denominator. And then the third option is just is on the balance sheet, just continue to have a fortressed type balance sheet, which we have a wonderful balance sheet. It's getting stronger every quarter. But at the end of the day, we also have some callable debt that we'll have to think about over the next couple of years, the way we pull the trigger on that or just treat it as a net debt type exercise. So really a good spot to be in, and that's really how we view it. We really -- in summary, we just try to do the best job we can day in, day out and trying to keep a good pulse on what investors are looking for. And I do think in this day and time, as we said in our opening comments, when you have a near 0% interest world that we're in right now, these yields are really, really compelling. I mean we're all shareholders, and we love those quarterly dividend checks I can tell you. Those are really nice. So that's really how we're looking at it. So hopefully, that's some color that can help you. So
ScottHanold:
Yes. No, it's very appreciated. And just a quick last question here. Clay, I think you kind of alluded to this already, but obviously, with your greater efficiencies and you guys continue to outperform, I guess, even your expectation on your quarterly production guidance and look on pace to be there for the full year. It doesn't sound at least like this year, you're going to probably taper activity much. Is that sort of the concept that we should think about as we think about 2022, if you guys are still running a little bit more efficient. You're going to kind of maintain that activity and maybe grow into that 5%, I guess, kind of cap rate that you have out there?
ClayGaspar:
Scott Coody:
All right. Looks like we're at the end of our time slot today. We appreciate everyone's interest in Devon. And if you have any further questions, please don't hesitate to reach out to the Investor Relations team at any time. Have a good day.
Operator:
This concludes today's conference call. Thank you.
Operator:
Welcome to Devon Energy's First Quarter 2021 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions]. This call is being recorded. I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Scott Coody, Vice President of Investor Relations. Sir, you may begin.
Scott Coody:
Good morning, and thank you to everyone for joining us on the call today. Last night, we issued an earnings release and presentation that cover our results for the quarter and our forward-looking outlook. Throughout the call today, we will make references to our earnings presentation to support our prepared remarks, and these slides can be found on our website. Also joining me on the call today are Rickhard Muncrief, our President and CEO; Clay Gaspar, our Chief Operating Officer; Jeff Ritenour, our Chief Financial Officer; and a few other members of our senior management team. Comments today will include plans, forecasts and estimates that are forward-looking statements under U.S. securities law. These comments are subject to assumptions, risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ from our forward-looking statements. Please take note of the cautionary language and risk factors provided in our SEC filings and earnings materials. With that, I'll turn the call over to Rick.
Richard Muncrief:
Thank you, Scott. It's good to be here this morning. We certainly appreciate everyone taking the time to join us today. It has now been nearly 4 months since the closing of the merger between Devon and WPX, creating a premier U.S. energy company that possesses a powerful suite of assets and a disciplined strategy to maximize value for our shareholders. With this advantaged platform, our merger integration efforts are complete and our go-forward team is highly energized and delivering on exactly what we promised. We are executing on our maintenance capital program, capturing cost synergies, generating free cash flow and returning significant value to shareholders through higher dividends and the aggressive reduction of debt. The progress we have made with each of these strategic objectives is evidenced in our quarterly results and this is only just the beginning. It is going to be an excellent year for Devon as we continue to advance our strategic plan. Turning your attention to Slide 3. With many investors possibly new to our story, I would like to review why Devon has the right business model to maximize value for our shareholders. To ensure that we are excellent stewards of your capital, any successful strategy in a commodity business must be grounded in supply and demand fundamentals. With fundamentals signaling maturing demand dynamics for our industry, we fully recognize the traditional E&P model of prioritizing only production growth is not the correct strategy going forward. To optimize value creation in the next leg of the energy cycle, a company must deploy a financially driven model that prioritizes free cash flow generation over production growth. At Devon, this is exactly what we are doing. We're limiting top line production growth from 0% to 5% in times of favorable conditions. We're pursuing margin expansion in earnings through scale and a leaner corporate cost structure. We're moderating reinvestment rates to levels substantially below that of cash flow. We're maintaining low levels of leverage to establish a greater margin of safety. And we're returning more cash to shareholders via our innovative fixed-plus-variable dividend policy. Our talented team at Devon takes great pride that we are leading the industry with this disciplined operating framework. I personally feel it's time for industry to stop contemplating and talking about the possibilities of a cash return model and more quickly embrace this necessary change. High returns on capital employed, reduced reinvestment rates and cash flow generation will determine the winners in this cycle, not the historic behavior of delivering outsized production growth. Now jumping ahead to Slide 4. And as I touched on briefly in my opening remarks, we delivered on exactly what we promised we would do in the first quarter. Our disciplined plan limited reinvestment rates to just over 60% of cash flow we substantially expanded margins, and we continue to take steps to reduce our corporate cost. As you can see on the bar chart graph to the right, with the excess cash our business is generating more than 65% of our capital allocation has been deployed toward dividends and debt reduction. This return of capital to the shareholders is a clear differentiator for Devon. Looking specifically at the dividend, we were able to accelerate cash returns in the quarter through our innovative fixed-plus-variable dividend framework, which we implemented earlier this year. The initial benefits of this generous payout policy were evidenced in March when the owners of our company received their first variable dividend in conjunction with our regular fixed dividend. Based on first quarter results, our Board has approved another fixed-plus-variable dividend of $0.34 per share. This payout represents a 13% increase versus last quarter and is more than 3x that of the same period a year ago. This thoughtful and uniquely designed dividend framework is foundational to our capital allocation process, providing us the flexibility to return cash to shareholders across a variety of market conditions through the cycle. In addition to the dividend, another way we returned value to shareholders was through our recent efforts to reduce debt and enhance our investment-grade financial strength. Since the closing of our merger, we have already retired $743 million of debt. With our actions year-to-date, we have executed on nearly half of our $1.5 billion authorized debt repurchase program. And we expect to reach our target of 1x net debt-to-EBITDA by year-end. Jumping ahead to Slide 10. While first quarter production was limited due to severe winter weather, I want to be clear that our operations are scaled to generate substantial amounts of free cash flow. Specifically, in 2021, we are on track to deliver a highly attractive free cash flow yield at today's spot price. The free cash flow yield story gets even better. If you look at us on an unhedged basis and assuming year-end run rates for cost synergies. This upside case is represented by the red line, showcasing a free cash flow yield in excess of 20% and at today's pricing. With this powerful cash flow stream, I feel it is important to reiterate that we have no intention of allocating capital to growth projects until demand side fundamentals recover, and it becomes evident that OPEC+ spare oil capacity is effectively absorbed by the world markets. On Slide 12, with our cash return business model, building momentum, I want to highlight the unique value proposition that Devon offers from both a dividend and a growth perspective. To demonstrate this point, we've included a simple comparison of our estimated dividend yield in 2021 at $60 WTI pricing, assuming a 50% variable dividend payout. As you can see on the slide, Devon's implied dividend yield is not only highly differentiated compared to peers, but is vastly superior to virtually any other sector and asset class in the market today. Importantly, Devon is more than just a yield play. We have our quality and depth of resource within our portfolio to deliver sustainable per share growth that will reward shareholders for many years to come. The final topic I want to briefly touch on is with the integration of our operations progressing ahead of plan. In the very near future, we plan to issue more specific guidance on Devon's go forward environmental priorities. This disclosure will include formal targets to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, methane intensity rates and our strategy to improve upon other key performance measures. And with that, I'll turn the call over to Clay, our Chief Operating Officer, to cover our recent operating highlights.
Clay Gaspar:
Thank you, Rick, and good morning, everyone. I first want to acknowledge the hard work that our organization has poured into this merger. Our team has made substantial progress integrating our organization, assets and processes. We knew it was not the easy way to combine 2 strong companies, taking time to evaluate the best practices has proven to be a very valuable exercise. I'm here in the corporate office, to each of our field offices, I've seen some great examples of setting aside historical bias listening to new ideas and then coming together to find the right solution for the go-forward enterprise. External forces certainly have compounded the complexity. To pile on to the challenges of the pandemic, February's winter storm was a major event that, again, tested the resolve of our team. As it turned out, once again, I saw incredible leadership, innovation and personal sacrifice in the name of the greater good. I saw many displays of our employees not only helping in expanded capacity for Devon, but also in their communities. This exemplifies the culture of the organization that we have and continue to refine. I'm pleased with the progress that we are making. I'm exceptionally excited about the future of Devon as we benefit from each other's legacy company best practices with an incredible portfolio and a rock-solid balance sheet. Let's flip to Slide 14, and we can discuss our world-class Delaware Basin asset. Once again, the Delaware Basin was the driving force behind our operational performance for the quarter, with our capital activity focused on low-risk development projects, higher-margin production grew 19% year-over-year on a pro forma basis. This strong production result was driven by a Wolfcamp oriented production program which accounted for roughly 2/3 of the 52 wells that commenced first production in the quarter. In the second quarter, we'll have several big pads that come on in the Stateline area, which will be a blend of Bone Spring and Wolfcamp completions. While the overall execution of our capital program was excellent in the quarter, new well activity was headlined by our Danger Noodle project in the Southwest County. This 2-mile lateral development, targeting the Upper Wolfcamp achieved average 30-day rates of 5,100 BOE per day with a 67% oil cut. Importantly, the capital cost came in 20% below our pregeral expectations, driving returns on invested capital significantly higher than planned. Another key project for us this quarter was the 11 well thoroughbred development in Eddy County that codeveloped 3 Upper Wolfcamp intervals. Due to timing, we only have commenced first production on 2 wells, but these -- but thus far, these wells have been outstanding with peak rates exceeding 4,000 BOE per day. The remaining 9 thoroughbred bird wells are being brought online and coupled with our current completion activity in the Stateline area. I think it's fair to state that we have a strong line of sight to our Delaware production profile and cash flow growth in the upcoming quarter. The final item I'd like to cover on this slide is the positive regulatory update regarding our federal acreage, which accounts for about 1/3 of our total Delaware leasehold. As many of you are aware, earlier this year, the Department of Interior issued a directive that restricted permitting on federal land for a 60-day period. This order lapsed on March '22. And with the team's forethought and proactive planning, we navigated through the 60-day period without any impact to our day-to-day operations or full year capital plan. What is even more encouraging is that since the order has lapsed, we've received approval on more than 50 new drilling permits. In aggregate and netting for the wells that we've drilled, we have about 500 federal drilling permits, reverting an inventory of about 4 years at the current drilling pace. Even though this positive regulatory news is right in line with our expectations, we will continue to be highly engaged and collaborative with policymakers to ensure that we retain the ability to effectively develop our federal leases and maximize value for all stakeholders involved. Moving to Slide 15. We continue to build upon our trend of operational excellence in the Delaware during the quarter. As you can see on the left-hand chart, our drilled and completed cost declined once again to $534 per lateral foot in the first quarter. These results rank among the very best in the industry and represent a 43% improvement from just a few years ago. This differentiated performance is underpinned by steadily improving cycle times, refined completion designs, and the deployment of leading-edge technology across all facets of the D&C value chain. Shifting to the middle chart. We also continue to act with a sense of urgency to materially improve our cash cost structure in order to get the most value out of every barrel we produce. This focus is evidenced by our first quarter results where field level costs improved 11% year-over-year. To achieve this positive rate of change, we have meaningfully reduced our recurring LOE expense across several categories, including chemicals, water disposal, compression and contract labor. Looking ahead, I expect further improvement. The team is hard at work identifying and capturing additional savings that will generate margin expansion throughout the remainder of the year. Turning to Slide 16. Another asset I'd like to put in the spotlight today is Anadarko Basin, where we are officially back to work in this basin with 2 operator rigs funded by our joint venture with Dow Chemical. Both Rick and I have long histories with this basin. And literally, it's just right down the road from our corporate headquarters. I'm very impressed with the great improvements that our team has made in the last couple of years. By way of background, in late 2019, we formed this partnership with Dow in a promoted deal where Dow earns half of our interest on 183 undrilled locations in exchange for a $100 million drilling carry. In addition to the benefits of the drilling carry, returns will also improve with targeted up spacing and from midstream incentive rates that will reduce our per unit cost for Wells associated with this drilling JV. When you combine these factors and the continuing operational improvement, these returns will be exceptional. Year-to-date, we have spud 8 wells in the liquids-rich core of the play and we are on track to drill up to 30 wells for the full year 2021, targeting in a mix of Meramec and Woodford opportunities. I have full confidence that the commencement of the Dow JV is the first of many positive steps Devon will take to extract value from the scalable and repeatable resource play. And lastly, on Slide 7, the key message here is that even with the severe winter weather we encountered in the first quarter, we are well on our way to achieving all of our capital objectives for 2021. Looking specifically at the second quarter, we expect the midpoint of oil production to be 288,000 barrels per day, coupled with a capital spend that is slightly elevated due to the timing of Delaware completions, and some of the midstream projects. Although the portfolio effect would typically smooth out a stack of events like this, sometimes capital from larger number of pads and projects can fall in one quarter. Following the second quarter, capital will fall back to a more nominal rate. We will continue to work our synergy gains into the capital projections as we work our best path forward. This should continue to offset much of the inflationary pressure in the industry that we will see in a $60-plus environment. And with that, I will now turn the call over to Jeff for additional commentary on our financial results.
Jeffrey Ritenour:
Thanks, Clay. For today, I will cover the progress we've made on our financial priorities and highlight the next steps in the execution of our financial strategy. Beginning on Slide 5, a key and differentiating part of our financial strategy is our ability and willingness to accelerate the return of cash to shareholders. At Devon, we have a long history of returning cash to shareholders, paying a quarterly dividend for 28 consecutive years that has increased at an average rate of more than 10% per year. To step up our game and build upon this tradition, earlier this year, we implemented our fixed plus variable dividend framework. This cash return strategy is designed to pay a sustainable fixed dividend and evaluate a variable dividend on a quarterly basis. The fix component of this policy is our legacy quarterly dividend that is paid at a rate of $0.11 per share and targeted at a sustainable payout level of approximately 10% of operating cash flow and mid-cycle pricing. The variable dividend is intended to be a supplemental distribution of up to 50% of excess free cash flow beyond the fixed dividend. As Rick touched on earlier, this isn't just an interesting theoretical concept. We are executing on this framework, and we paid our initial fixed plus variable dividend in March of this year based on our fourth quarter results. And with our strong financial performance in the first quarter of this year, the Board approved a 13% increase in our fixed-plus-variable dividend to $0.34 per share. Both the fixed quarterly dividend of $0.11 per share and the variable dividend of $0.23 per share are payable on June 30 to shareholders. Turning to Slide 6. In addition to higher dividend payouts, another strategic priority for Devon has been the repayment of debt to further strengthen our investment-grade financial position. So far this year, we've made significant progress towards this initiative by retiring $743 million of outstanding notes. While our balance sheet is in great shape, we're not done making improvements. Today, we acted on the next step in our plan by notifying bondholders of our intent to redeem $500 million of callable 2026 notes in June. In combination, these debt reduction efforts will reduce our annual run rate interest expense by nearly $70 million, further lowering our overall breakeven per barrel. With the execution of our plan, we're on pace to reach 1x net debt-to-EBITDA target by year-end, and these debt retirement actions extend the average maturity of our debt portfolio to approximately 13 years with over 60% of our debt maturing after 2030. Turning to Slide 7. Another area of focus that will enhance Devon's cash flow generating capabilities going forward is the capturing of merger-related synergies. The integration team has done a great job advancing this initiative year-to-date. And as a result, we are now raising our cost savings target to $600 million by year-end 2021. This updated target represents a 4% increase in cost savings compared to our previously issued guidance. While we're making strong progress across all categories. This improved outlook is driven by capital efficiency gains and the benefits of enhanced purchasing power in the Delaware Basin. Overall, about 60% of the $600 million of cost savings targets has been incorporated into our full year 2021 outlook, and we have clear line of sight to capture the remaining synergies by year-end. The capturing of these synergies is very material and impactful to Devon, [indiscernible] in a PV-10 uplift over the next 5 years of $2.5 billion or roughly 15% of our market cap. And with that, I'll now turn the call back to Rick for some closing comments.
Richard Muncrief:
Thank you, Jeff. Great job. I would like to close by reiterating his key message, and that is the integration of the 2 companies is complete, and the team is delivering on exactly what we promised to do. We have prioritized free cash flow over growth. We have identified and captured cost synergies above and beyond our plan. We have a free cash flow that compares favorably to virtually any other asset class in the entire market we're rewarding shareholders with higher dividends, and we've taken some steps to aggressively reduce the debt. Our team is focused and energized in 2021 is shaping up to be an excellent year for Devon. This is just the beginning. Devon's future is very bright. And with that, I will now turn the call back over to Scott for Q&A.
Scott Coody:
Thanks, Rick. We will now open the call to Q&A. [Operator Instructions]. With that, operator, we'll take your first question.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions]. Your first question comes from Arun Jayaram with JPMorgan Securities.
Arun Jayaram:
Rick, let me start with you. One of the thoughts or incoming questions we've been getting is, call it, beyond 2021, how do you think about balancing the development CapEx portfolio renewal and returning cash to shareholders from a capital allocation standpoint, in particular, we've been getting some questions around Devon's interest. In a couple of the larger Permian A&D opportunities. But just seeing where your heads at as you look to balance some of your organic opportunities and plus other opportunities in the marketplace.
Richard Muncrief:
Yes, Arun, that's something we'll always be contemplating. But right now, we're really focused on 2021. And the second half of this year is really shaping up to be a quite strong second half. We're going to see great momentum going into 2022. As far as the capital plan, we've not started working that yet. That will take place at later throughout the year. So I think it's a little bit early. I know that investors are really interested in that. But I think suffice to say for us right now, we're really focused on having great momentum into 2022. And with a keen focus, still to be on generating free cash flow and getting that back to shareholders. I think the second part of your question is around maybe some consolidation that's going on. You have seen quite a few transactions that have taken place over the last few months. I think we've been on record of saying we're we support that. I think some of the industry needs to do. But as far as Devon specifically, we've had a high bar that bar just continues to go up. When you start looking at the organic opportunities we have, and Lea and Eddy County, New Mexico and Loving County and Reeves County, Texas, you can just see that just in Inter Delaware, we have just a phenomenal amount of running room. And so we just have to be thoughtful about that. And on top of that, we have our or other assets that all are playing a very key role for us in the company and the go-forward plan. So that's kind of where we are today.
Arun Jayaram:
Great. Great. And my follow-up, you noted more than 50 permit approval since the moratorium lapsed. Clay, would you view this as kind of business as usual at the BLM? Or how do you characterize what you're seeing in terms of ongoing permit approvals?
Clay Gaspar:
Yes, Arun, I would say it's a little tough to say business as usual, right? I mean we work very closely with lots of counterparties, including the BLM, and they're in a little bit of a tough spot. I mean they're still trying to figure out directives from the administration from the Department of Interior. So I would say we're still in a bit of a transitional phase. But that doesn't deter from our ability -- or our focus on continuing to be a good partner, working very aggressively and very supportively with them, making sure that we are proactive in our business so that we don't find ourselves in a short-term pinch. And I think that's proven out to be very advantageous as you had -- as we've seen in the prior disruption that we've experienced. So I think we're still a little bit away from business as usual, but we look forward to that for everybody's sake.
Operator:
Your next question is from Doug Leggate with Bank of America.
Doug Leggate:
Sorry, guys, I had the mute button on. So as -- I wanted -- Jeff, I wonder if I could start with you on the free cash flow yield slide that you have on the deck. And I wonder if I could walk you through some numbers to see if I'm getting to the same place that you're trying to tell us to. You're basically, in Slide 10, you're showing is a 20% free cash flow yield at $60 WTI. And you're showing us 285,000 barrels a day midpoint production and a 40% WTI assumption for NGLs. If I do the math on that, it basically says a senior market cap last night was about $17 billion, and you put these charts together, us about $3.4 billion of implied free cash flow. And if I divide through by the oil sensitivity, it suggests that those are about $30 or something, which means your breakeven is below $30. Can you confirm or deny that, that math is close to be right? In other words, what do you think your sustaining capital breakeven on price is today?
Jeffrey Ritenour:
Yes. No, Doug, you're exactly right. The one caveat I'll make, and we denoted on the slide, obviously, we've assumed that we've captured all the synergies in this analysis. And we've also eliminated, obviously, the hedges that were burdened by in the current year. But when you put that all together and think about what the power of this business model can do going forward at these higher prices that we're currently experiencing, that's -- it's incredibly powerful. And that's what we try to demonstrate here on the slide is, although you can see from the bars, which are burdened by the current construct. When you eliminate some of that, you capture the synergies, you eliminate the commodity hedges on a go-forward basis, those are the kind of free cash flow yields that we think we can generate.
Doug Leggate:
I'm trying to get to the underlying number. But to be clear, I think both Dave and Rick before had said your breakeven was in the mid-30s. I just want to make sure that what I'm understanding is actually $5 lower than that.
Jeffrey Ritenour:
Yes, that's right. We're pushing to the mid- to low 30s. And that's going to go lower as NGL prices improve.
Doug Leggate:
Got it. My follow-up then is, look, it's obviously, I'm trying to keep valuation very simple. Your question then becomes is how long can you do it for is basically an inventory correction. And I realize you can move capital around the different basins. But when you look at your business today, when we think about a very simple excel, sustainable business as a starting point for a valuation discussion, how long can you sustain that type of mix of 285,000, $1.7 billion of capital?
Jeffrey Ritenour:
Yes, Doug, I'll let Clay weigh in on the inventory.
Clay Gaspar:
Yes, Doug, we're still working on pulling together the quantifiable numbers of what we would call inventory, make sure we're talking the same language. But I would say, at a real high level, both legacy companies had substantial inventory. And I think as we continue to run in this 0% to 5% window, it's multiple -- many years of forward inventory. And you know how the maturing of these opportunities evolve. So we look very closely at to, say, the next 5 years of inventory to make sure that we are ready to invest in any one of those projects, which we are. And then kind of that 5 to 10-year span, those may take additional down spacing tests understanding the right completion techniques and that maturing happens in those coming years. So I would say it's probably closer to a 10-year range, but we will get -- we'll continue to refine that and work towards a real tight number that we can talk about in a consistent method.
Doug Leggate:
That's really helpful. Hopefully, you see what I'm trying to get to, but I appreciate the answers, guys.
Clay Gaspar:
Yes. The summary is it's great news. We've got exceptionally low breakeven, a lot of exceptionally good inventory and exceptionally strong balance sheet. So that makes for a pretty good environment.
Richard Muncrief:
Yes, Doug, it's Rick. I'll just weigh in real quickly. I just think that I would give this team maybe another quarter, and you'll get a little more clarity around where that breakeven is. But I think I think your view is directionally correct, and we'll continue to tighten that up a little bit.
Operator:
Your next question is from Neil Mehta with Goldman Sachs.
Neil Mehta:
Yes. I want to stick on Slide 10 here. And when you talk about the 20% free cash flow yield, I want to bridge that back down to dividend yield. And as I kind of assume here, Rick, that the 20% free cash flow yield kind of accrues to a 10% variable dividend, all else equal. Plus, we're talking about 2% fixed, so low double digits sort of dividend yield as you look out into 2022 at $60 WTI. And I guess the one swing in that math, to the extent that math is right, is whether you still will be running at a sustaining program at that point? Or do you see a scenario at a $60 WTI, where you're starting to layer in growth capital?
Richard Muncrief:
Yes. I think you're right on. I mean, some of those numbers -- that's what the numbers definitely imply. We look at it the same way. So I think we align closely with you. I think as we think about 2022 and beyond. The key word for us, I think, is optionality. There's no doubt we could have just almost a stunning yield coming from the company. And we'll just have to balance that with continuing to aggressively pay down some debt and strengthen the balance sheet. It's already in good shape. But I think the key word for me is optionality. And I think that's kind of helped. I think we should look at it right now. But directionally, you were absolutely correct. The free cash flow yield at these kind of levels and gives you the ability to pay a very, very substantial variable dividend.
Neil Mehta:
And Rick, what are you looking for in terms of switching from sort of a maintenance-type program, running the business for free cash flow to saying that the world needs your business to actually operate for growth, if that makes sense? Or is the bar so high to do that and your framework has fundamentally changed. That you see very little scenario, very few scenarios where it would be appropriate to take a more growth-oriented approach. Does that make sense?
Richard Muncrief:
It does. I think for us, we are absolutely spot on with the free cash flow generation being our #1 priority. As you think about the future, as far as growth company is concerned, the framework we laid out when we announced this transaction back last September, I think, is still intact. And that is we see up to 5% growth is probably, as we think about different sensitivities, that still is where we land. So 5% growth at a -- as you're approaching 300,000 barrels of oil a day, that's not insignificant growth. And so if you think about the corresponding cash flow that comes from that is something that we just has to contemplate. But optionality is a great thing to have.
Operator:
Your next question is from Jeanine Wai with Barclays.
Jeanine Wai:
My first question is just on return of capital. The leverage is on track to reach 1x by year-end. Your target or time or less. And you've talked in the past, to the extent that the balance sheet is in good shape from leverage, cash, all that, the macro looks constructive and you're generating good incremental free cash flow. You'd reconsider visiting the up to 50% payout on the variable? And then potentially revisiting the 10% on the base dividend? So do you think you'll be in a position to maybe start more seriously contemplating that next year? And in this situation, would buybacks just look more attractive because it's generally a means to lessen the base dividend burden?
Jeffrey Ritenour:
Yes, Janine, this is Jeff. I think you're spot on. As we've talked about in the past, as we continue to execute on the plan and generate excess free cash flow into this year, we feel really good about where the balance sheet is with the announced additional $500 million debt reduction we announced today, we're well down the path to reaching our targets. We're forecasting to be at that kind of 1x net debt-to-EBITDA target at the end of this year, if not sooner. So we feel really good about where the balance sheet is. And then to your question, we'll absolutely be talking to the Board about should we reevaluate that 50% threshold and maybe start putting more cash to the variable dividend beyond that 50% and then even considering things like the fixed dividend as well. I will tell you the way we think about the fixed dividend, as you mentioned, is a payout ratio of cash flow kind of 5% to 10% on normalized pricing, which historically, we thought about normalized pricing kind of being in that $50 to $55 oil range. If we believe there's, as Rick mentioned earlier in some of his comments, if we see a structural change, in the pricing dynamic in the macro environment that would suggest to us that normalized pricing is higher than that kind of $50 to $55 level, that's when we would reevaluate the fixed dividend. But -- so I think what you're most likely to see from us in the near-term is incremental cash on the variable dividend and an increase in that threshold later this year or certainly into next year.
Jeanine Wai:
Okay. Great. We're looking forward to that. And then maybe our second question is a follow-up on Arun's question. You've got a high bar because you have very strong operations and a great portfolio right now. You have a strict financial framework for evaluating inorganic opportunities. And I guess our question is maybe a little more philosophical. Is financial accretion enough of a reason to do a deal as things are maturing in the industry as rate of change starts to slow down a little bit with either well results or costs with inflation on the horizon. Is that enough of a reason for financial patient? Or do you think there is still sufficient running room left with your existing capital efficiency so that you think you'll still be able to remain competitive on like free cash flow accretion over time?
Richard Muncrief:
Jeanine, I see it. David Harris is here with me, may have David weigh in as well. But the way I see it is financial accretion is absolutely critical. So it's really the latter of your two directions. For us, there's we do have just a wonderful inventory. We're executing very well. We do see some opportunities to improve not only cost structure, but overall EURs and -- throughout our throughout our asset base. And so we have a high bar. I don't know how else to put it. And we're going to be very, very disciplined. That's not going to change. And I know that there's a lot of talk out there. But Dave, do you want to weigh in any way you see things differently?
David Harris:
Yes, Jeanine, this is David. Certainly, the financial accretion is an important component of how we would think about opportunities. But as we've pretty consistently said, for the last several years, it's one of a number of factors. We'd also be thinking about strategic fit within the portfolio and the possibility for operational synergies and margin expansion opportunities. Clearly, inventory would need to move towards the front of the queue to effectively compete for capital. So it's a balancing act across all those things. And as Rick and Clay and Jeff have highlighted here. We have a lot of confidence in the business, both today and as it's going to continue to improve going forward. And so that's what drives the high bar and the discipline we're going to have as we think about balancing those factors.
Operator:
Your next question is from David Heikkinen with Heikkinen Energy Advisors.
David Heikkinen:
As you think about your free cash flow and that yield, I think the question that has come up if 50% today going into the variable could easily, whatever you said, stunning, Rick, it like, well, 50% cap works for now as you think about the balance sheet and some sustainability. But how does the Board and how do you guys think about increasing that 50% payout of free cash flow over time?
Richard Muncrief:
Well, I think, Jeff, Dave touched on that briefly, but I think the Board will be thoughtful, and we'll be disciplined, but also open-minded. If that's the right thing to do, that's we're seeing and hearing feedback from our shareholders, that's the thing to do. We'll certainly look at that. Jeff, I mean, you want to weight in?
Jeffrey Ritenour:
David, the only thing I would add to my earlier comments is we're not averse to continuing to build cash and driving our net debt lower. We obviously focused on the 1x net debt-to-EBITDA target, but we're not averse to taking that even lower. But as we mentioned before, I mean, we're in an enviable position of generating a significant amount of free cash flow. We're just fundamentally of the belief that given our maintenance capital program and how we're executing, we need to return that cash to shareholders. And so I think it's likely that our Board will debate and discuss the opportunity to increase that threshold and then consider other options to continue to get cash returns back to shareholders.
David Heikkinen:
Yes. And as you've talked with your shareholders, and you get some sustainability of this dividend payout, you now have 2 variables in the bank or will soon in June. Have you talked at all about like what yield they price to? I mean, do you get down into the 6%, 7-type percent range getting priced in? Or have you had any of those discussions at all?
Jeffrey Ritenour:
Yes, David, honestly, we haven't got a lot of clarity on that from investors in our conversations at this point in time. I'm looking forward to -- we've been really excited to get not only 1 but 2 of these kind of under our belt and hopefully start to gather some of the attention that we think it deserves. And I think it's likely we'll have some of those conversations going forward. But frankly, just haven't got a lot of line of sight to that at this point.
David Heikkinen:
Your stock clearly isn't there yet.
Operator:
Your next question is from Nitin Kumar with Wells Fargo.
Nitin Kumar:
Rick, I'm going to start off on -- hedges were a bit of a drag. I think I saw last night that you were paying almost $4 or $5 a barrel equivalent in the first quarter. As you get closer to your 1x debt target, and obviously, you're being great on the fixed-plus-variable strategy. What is the future of hedging at Devon at a strategic level?
Richard Muncrief:
I think that's a question. I think it's bought on a very timely, and I want to kick it off and let Jeff close it out. But a little -- if you look in rearview mirror, obviously, 12, 14 months ago, it was a much more stark picture with the commodity tape when you're considering the pandemic. So I think a lot of companies, such as ourselves, both legacy companies actually weighed in. We had a place in defense, quite honestly. And so we ended up with some hedges that if you look in rearview mirror, you you're leaving some money on the table, so to speak. But it was the right thing to do, we think, at the time. And kept confidence with the investment community and protect some cash flows, all sorts of things. As we look forward, obviously, it's a new world where you have much the scale that we now have as we talked about approaching 300,000 barrels of oil a day, the balance sheet shrink, all those things. We are taking a different view than what we have in the past. I think historically, both legacy companies typically like to be in that plus or minus 50% hedged level. Time to time, it may be above that or below that to pin on the outlook. But it's where we've been thus far. But I think now it's -- with the cash flows, the balance sheet, it's a little bit of a different story. So Jeff, what would you add to that?
Jeffrey Ritenour:
Yes. No, Rick, I think, you nailed it. The only thing I would add on is, to your question is we feel really good, again, where the balance sheet is and the free cash flow generation capability sits today. So we're roughly kind of on the back half of this year, I think 40% hedged. As it relates to oil. And then as you move into 2022, I think we're more hovering around maybe 20% hedged. We feel really comfortable with those levels to just reiterate Rick's point. And so I don't think you'll see us add hedges in a meaningful way based on where we sit today and how the balance sheet.
Nitin Kumar:
Great. That's helpful. There's a lot of topics on my mind, but I don't want to be a dead force. We've touched on consolidation and Devon's growing that. But I can't help but notice also, you have 5 basins right now, but 80% of the capital is going to the Delaware. And I just maybe take a different tact and ask, how do those 5 assets fit with the long-term strategy? I mean, where does the Podwer River Basin or the Anadarko fit for the long-term future of Devon right now?
Richard Muncrief:
No, that's a good question. And I think right now, as we've said, we're in year 1 of the integration. Every one of the assets that we have are playing a role with the free cash flow generation focus that we have. And so -- and I think Clay even talked about it. There are some things that we're doing in the Anadarko that or test that could really change your minds also as assets and make some great returns right now with the JV that we have with Dow Chemicals. So it's something we'll always look at, Nitin, but we feel really good with our portfolio. We feel really good with our free cash flow generation and balance sheet, and we want to be really thoughtful if we need to do additional, I'd say, portfolio optimization.
Operator:
Your next question is from Paul Cheng with Scotiabank.
Paul Cheng:
Rick, one of your largest competitors just talked about increasingly, they're going to drill the 15,000 feet lateral well. I think up until recently that most people thought only 10,000 to 12,000 is the optimum. But it seems like they are suggesting differently. So just wondering that, do you guys have a view on that? And whether that's much of an opportunity for you to improve your lateral length and improve your efficiency in here?
Richard Muncrief:
Yes, I'm going to let Clay handle that one.
Clay Gaspar:
Yes. Thanks for the question, Paul. I would say both legacy companies have a history of 3-mile wells as well. On the WPX side, it was more in the Williston Basin. I can tell you that, that third mile sometimes was productive to the level that it should be. And sometimes, we looked at it, and we really scratched our head wondering if we were effectively draining that third mile. So I would say it was a situational analysis that we didn't move towards that as the standard. Now flipping over to the Delaware Basin, Devon has really led the industry on some 3-mile development. And what we're seeing on that side is that third mile is very productive. Obviously, very cost competitive. And when you combine that, it shows to be really a nice accretive procedures to do. Now there's a backdrop of land. Once you organize a development for an area, it can be difficult to immediately switch from a 2 model a 3 mile. But there's a situation, we talk about synergies. This is something that will never show up in the cash flow statement, but it is an absolute synergy. So we had some wells that were on the calendar from the WPX side that were 3 miles -- a 3-mile development. We were going to break it into two 7,500 mile developments -- or 7,500-foot developments, excuse me. And that was the plan because we didn't have the existing basis of experience in the basin that we felt confident that some of our best stuff, and we really want to risk experimenting with 3 miles here. Once we've merged the companies, the teams come together. Now immediately, we have a couple of dozen very high quality, really good experience operations that we were able to apply to the state line area, and we flipped that to 3-mile development. So I would say, where appropriate, we feel very comfortable in the technology being able to drill that third mile is not the biggest challenge. In my mind, it's effectively stimulating and draining that third mile. And I think from the experience from the legacy Devon side, we've proven that it's very effective. So great question, and I appreciate that.
Paul Cheng:
And Clay said in your portfolio that what percentage of the wells over the next several years do you think you may be able to push into 3-mile?
Clay Gaspar:
I don't know the exact number, but I would put it pretty low. Like I said, we have a couple of dozen on the Devon side. We're fairly far along on the development scenario kind of a setup of some of our other areas, especially on the Texas side, kind of working towards the 2-mile development. And so I think it will be looking for those opportunities, maybe that we had a 3-mile stack or we could trade into those but at this point, I would say it's going to remain a relatively small amount of our future development. But where appropriate, it's great to have that tool in the toolbox.
Richard Muncrief:
Yes. Paul, this is Rick. I may add, one of the things that our exposure in Lea and Eddy County, those are federal units and sometimes with federal units, you don't have internal hard lines. So it really sets you up nicely to drill the 3-mile lateral. So that's something that -- it's still too early for us to talk about 2022 and beyond plans. But I would say our land position is really conducive to -- in some areas to do just that.
Paul Cheng:
Right. And Rick, you have touched on the consolidation trend and talk about from the position of Devon. Just curious that, I mean, the 12-month mega big difference with the much stronger share performance and commodity prices. When you talk to your peers, do you get a sense that, I mean, the consolidation trend is still alive and kicking or that everyone is sort of happy and that the demand for -- or the willingness to sell have substantially come down. So from that standpoint, the consolidation trend may be open in the meantime?
Richard Muncrief:
Well, I think the consolidation -- the trend has been a little -- it's really been a little hard to draw a straight-line for it. We've seen -- just -- I'll just go back to last September, you saw 3 really attractive transactions happen back-to-back to back, and then it was pretty quiet. And then since that time, most of the transactions have been asset level deals. And I'd say in that $200 million to $800 million range, a few -- the few of those that have been done. But it's hard to have a trend. I think that as far as consolidation, you'll probably see it continue to some degree. And I think it's -- we've long said, it's probably a healthy thing for our industry. But it depends on which one of our peers we talk to.
Operator:
Your next question is from Neal Dingmann with Truist Securities.
Neal Dingmann:
Rick, I'd be remiss if I didn't ask Clay more about this Danger Noodle project. Yes, specifically, I mean, it wasn't just the well results, but even the cost. Clay, if you could just talk a little bit, was it just focused on the Upper Wolfcamp? And what did you guys do to continue to get those costs down there like that? And can you continue that in others?
Clay Gaspar:
It's pretty exciting. Just on the cost front. We show that quarter-over-quarter trend really from back in 2018 and a 43% reduction in D&C is pretty remarkable. But it's much more -- there's so much more opportunity because if you think about those -- that particular pad, that was really drilled and completed without much of the synergies that we're talking about from the combined companies. As I look forward in the next few quarters, kind of what's happening right now, things that are being tested and blended and combined completion design is a huge opportunity, facility design, big opportunity. Just getting the subsurface teams that have been working in relative isolation in the legacy companies in the same room, comparing notes, challenging each other, challenging that we know this because we've studied this and we studied this and studied this. Having somebody walk in and say, I see it differently. And just the ensuing exciting conversation that happens is amazing and very synergistic to itself. The 3-mile wells I mentioned, supply chain bidding strategies, the economies of scale associated with something as simple as a chemical program, can be very valuable. Technology, what we're doing with cameras and AI watching wells 24/7, looking for those environmental opportunities for us to continue to move in the right direction. Well monitoring, thinking about how do we improve on preventive maintenance and thinking about machine learning associated with that. And then certainly, ESG, I think Devon had a couple of years ahead, a head start on WPX, the WPX side, I think we are really trying to ramp our knowledge and I think blending that with the existing great work that the Devon side of the house has done has really supercharged that, and we're seeing wins kind of across the board. I look forward to what Rick mentioned earlier in a couple of months, being able to really more fully articulate our ESG strategy go forward.
Neal Dingmann:
Great details. And then, Rick, I know it's been asked, I'm just wondering, maybe you could talk a little on just the timing, particularly looking at the Williston and the Powder, I mean, there obviously has been a pretty -- it's a pretty strong Williston sale recently. I know, WPX, you guys were pretty frank about kind of what you thought on existing locations there. But obviously, the valuation seems to have -- really has increased on that. And then secondly, looking at the Powder, there's not as much activity there recent, but there's certainly some potential big upside. I'm just wondering, is this based on sort of your free cash flow generation plan, something that you think you'd tackle this year to decide what you want to do? I mean, maybe you can just talk a little more specifics on what it would take to sort of drive decisions around that.
Richard Muncrief:
Well, I think, number one, you see up in the Bakken, it's a great base of operating, and that's why you've seen the activity, and you actually see some pretty competitive transactions recently. So I think it just shows the value of the asset that we have up there. We've got a great team. And as we've always said, the margins up there and the leverage you get from an improving crude oil price really drive home cash flows. And we're seeing that day in and day out. So it is a area. We've been very open on that, Neal, to your question. It does not have the inventory that some of our other basins do. But it is playing a very, very important role right now, and it's cranking out a lot of cash for us. So I think we need to keep it. I think the in the Powder is almost the inverse of that. We have the opportunity to be very thoughtful. We have a great position there. It's very high cut we don't have to rush. We can be very thoughtful, very strategic about that asset, and we're encouraged with some of the things we're seeing there. And I think you're going to see more activity up there from a few of the other operators. And so we'll learn from them as well. And in the meantime, we'll keep pounding the very high return, low-risk opportunities that we have in our portfolio. So I'd say right now, it's the summary of those comments are full steam ahead of that with the portfolio we have, and we're excited about it. And as we've said, it's all about generating free cash right now.
Operator:
Your next question is from Scott Hanold with RBC Capital Markets.
Scott Hanold:
Yes. And I feel like it's being beat -- it'd be pretty hard here, but on that divestiture comment, just to clarify, something like the Bakken, specifically at this point in time, if you can confirm if I'm hearing you correctly, that it really is a strong free cash flow generation assets. So it probably doesn't make sense to sell right now since you really transitioned Devon then to a free cash flow generation story. Is that what I'm hearing?
Richard Muncrief:
It is.
Scott Hanold:
Okay. Fair enough. Is there a point though, where that doesn't make any sense? And if that point does come, what would you all do with, say, theoretically a proceed if it were to happen, would it look like something similar to what you did with the Barnett where it would be more of a special type of scenario? Or is it just too early to kind of make that speculation?
Richard Muncrief:
Yes. I think, some your questions are fine, but I think it just simply -- it's kind of just too early.
Scott Hanold:
Okay. Fair enough. As a quick follow-up. If you all are running ahead of your development results and -- your performance has been outstanding. If that continues, would you guys ran in CapEx towards the end of the year to sort of mitigate your production growth? Or would you spend your capital and just see a little bit of production outperformance? So the point I'm getting to is you don't seem to have 100% confidence in the current oil market to want to grow today. But would your asset outperformance allow you to grow? Or would you stunt that a little bit in the back half of the year and save a little bit on the capital front?
Richard Muncrief:
Yes. I'd just say we'll probably just stick with our capital spend. It's on track, and it's looking good. We're seeing great results, and we don't see anything at this point in time to alter our plan.
Clay Gaspar:
Said another way, production is not going to be our limit. If we can make more production for the same capital, we're all for that. And so I think the big thing we stick to our capital. And you've heard that a number of times today, for '21 and make sure we're being as efficient with those investments we possibly can.
Operator:
Your final question is from Charles Meade with Johnson Rice.
Charles Meade:
Rick, to you and the rest of your team there, I actually just have 1 question, and this sort of gets back to the point of maybe looking past '21. Rick, how much time do you and the Board and the managing spend, thinking about the risk of maybe waiting too long to increase growth CapEx and the increased volumes. Is that even on your radar? Or is that just something that doesn't enter the conversation right now?
Richard Muncrief:
Well, I think that's something that you'll be talking about maybe down the road. Right now, our Board has spent a lot of time just focusing on what we've talked about today, and that is positioning the company to be the leader that we are in the dividend framework that we have. And so I think our Board is very pleased. We'll watch how the equity performs. We're very bullish on our equity, and we think we're going to get rewarded for this. We certainly hope so. And so that's what our Board has been focused on. We'll have plenty of time to talk about outer years in the next few quarters. But right now, we're in a good spot.
Scott Coody:
All right. Well, I appreciate everyone's interest in Devon today. And if you have any further questions, please don't hesitate to reach out to the Investor Relations team at any time. Have a good day.
Operator:
This concludes conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Welcome to Devon Energy's Fourth Quarter and Year-End 2020 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions]. This call is being recorded. I'd now like to turn the call over to Mr. Scott Coody, Vice President of Investor Relations. Sir, you may begin.
Scott Coody:
Good morning, and thank you to everyone for joining us on the call. Last night, we issued an earnings release and presentation that cover our results for the year and our forward-looking outlook for Devon in 2021. Throughout the call today, we'll make references to our earnings presentation to support our prepared remarks, and these slides can be found on our website. Also joining me on the call today are Rick Muncrief, our President and CEO; Clay Gaspar, our Chief Operating Officer; Jeff Ritenour, our Chief Financial Officer; and a few other members of our senior management team, including Dave Hager, our Executive Chairman. Comments today will include plans, forecasts and estimates that are forward-looking statements under U.S. Securities law. These comments are subject to assumptions, risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ from our forward-looking statements. Please take note of the cautionary language and risk factors provided in our SEC filings and earnings materials. With that, I'll turn the call over to Rick.
Richard Muncrief:
Thank you, Scott. Great to be here this morning. We certainly appreciate everyone taking time to join us. With the merger of equals between Devon and WPX Energy now finalized, we have an exciting story to share with you about the prospects of our new company. We have definitely timed this merger well, catching the very bottom of the cycle and positioning ourselves to capture the full upside presented by the recent strengthening of macro fundamentals. With these more favorable conditions, the team at Devon is not taking anything for granted. We are extremely focused on capturing synergies and executing our plans. We remain disciplined with our capital program, and we are delivering some very positive results well ahead of plan, even with all the disruptions driven by COVID-19, politics and recently, winter weather. We will provide an update on the impact from this Arctic storm later on, but our field personnel are doing a tremendous job fighting through these challenging conditions and meeting the energy needs of consumers in tough times like these. Extreme weather like this is a good reminder of how the products we produce are absolutely essential to protect and improve the quality of life for society. Now for those of you who are new to our story, let's turn to Slide 3 of the presentation to briefly review the advantaged attributes of the go-forward Devon. In January, we successfully closed the all-stock merger of equals between Devon Energy and WPX Energy in only 3 months. This is a remarkable pace to complete a transaction of this scale. And I want to thank both organizations for their dedication and efforts to reach this milestone. Progress on integrating the merger is also off to a great start with our blended leadership team and staffs working remarkably well together. By bringing together our respective companies, shareholders will benefit from enhanced scale, immediate cost synergies, higher free cash flow and a financial strength to accelerate the return of cash to shareholders through our innovative fixed plus variable dividend strategy. Also adding to Devon's investment thesis is our attractive valuation, which I believe to be the best value available in the entire energy space. As we execute on our strategy and more evidence continues to emerge that we will be able to efficiently develop our federal acreage in the Delaware Basin, I truly expect Devon to re-rate higher. Now jumping to Slide 5, the power of the combined company was showcased for our outstanding fourth quarter results that outperformed Street expectations. Across the portfolio, our teams are delivering results that continue to exceed production and capital efficiency targets while successfully driving down per unit operating cost and maximizing margins. This is evidenced by several noteworthy accomplishments in the fourth quarter, including our oil production exceeded guidance by 5%, driven by well performance, not higher activity. Our operating and corporate costs also exhibited sharp declines year-over-year. And importantly, these efforts translated into $263 million of free cash flow. Now coupled with the closing of our Barnett divestiture, we generated nearly $600 million of excess free cash flow during the fourth quarter, a truly fantastic result for our organization. Now moving to Slide 6. Devon has a long history of returning cash to shareholders, paying an uninterrupted quarterly dividend for 28 consecutive years. The combination of Devon and WPX will allow us to step up our game by implementing our fixed plus variable dividend strategy. And with the free cash flow we generated in the quarter, I am proud to deliver on our commitment to reward shareholders with higher cash returns by declaring an industry-first variable dividend of $0.19 per share. Jeff will cover the details of the differentiating dividend policy later on, but this fixed plus variable dividend framework will be a staple of our capital allocation process, allowing us to return meaningful and appropriate amounts of cash to shareholders across a variety of market conditions. Now moving ahead to Slide 11. The positive momentum of our business has established is also resulting in an improved operational and financial outlook for 2021. And how do I define an improved outlook? Well, it's very simple
Clay Gaspar:
Thank you, Rick, and good morning, everyone. The strategic combination of Devon and WPX creates a powerful asset portfolio that strikes a great balance between sustainable growth opportunities and strong free cash flow generation. Given the strength of our fourth quarter operating results and 2021 outlook, we're off to a great start executing on our strategy that will drive the next phase of financial growth and strong returns for the company. Let's turn to Slide 14, and I'll give you a brief overview of our incredible Delaware Basin position. Our world-class Delaware Basin asset is a capital-efficient growth engine for driving Devon's operational performance. As you can see, we have amassed a dominant position of 400,000 net acres of stacked pay in the economic core of the basin that accounts for about 60% of our pro forma production. The operating scale of our consolidated Delaware footprint provides a multi-decade inventory of high-return opportunities at our current activity level. Another important point that this slide demonstrates is our position's geographic diversity between New Mexico and Texas. By having a blend of federal, state and feed lands and positions in both Texas and New Mexico, we're able to leverage the significant economies of scale and, at the same time, benefit from market diversity and navigate the evolving regulatory climate. While we fundamentally believe that we'll be able to efficiently develop our federal acreage in New Mexico, we have proactively managed this risk by building up an inventory of around 500 approved drilling permits that cover our planned activity on federal lands for multiple years. Our forethought has allowed us to secure the necessary permits, easements and rights of way required to execute on our near-term capital program with minimal impacts to our day-to-day operations. Looking beyond the 60-day regulatory transition, we will be highly engaged and collaborative with policymakers to ensure that we retain ability to efficiently develop our federal leases and maximize value for all stakeholders involved. Moving to Slide 15. The fourth quarter operations results across the Devon legacy position highlight why we believe this basin to be the best resource in North America. Our oil production from this operating region continued to increase rapidly, growing 41% year-over-year. This growth was supported by 23 high-impact wells that were brought online across the Southeast New Mexico during the quarter. While we had great results across our acreage, our activity in the Cotton Draw region, targeting the Second Bone Spring, topped the highlight list. This package of 8 wells delivered average 30-day rates of more than 4,000 BOE per day, which equates to an impressive 450 BOE per 1,000 feet of lateral length. With D&C costs averaging less than $6 million per well, the overall returns from this Bone Spring activity ranks among the very best returns Devon has ever delivered in the basin. Turning your attention to the far right-hand side of the slide, another noteworthy trend is our improving capital efficiency. With consistent improvements throughout the year, our drilled and completed costs exited 2020 at around $560 per lateral foot. We believe these results to be best-in-class among our peers in the area. The key drivers of this performance were optimized completion design, repetition gains and nonproductive time improvements across all phases of the value chain. I expect this positive trend of steadily improving cycle times and costs to carry into and benefit our 2021 program. Congrats to David Harris and the Devon legacy team for this outstanding set of results. Moving to Slide 16. We also continue to build operational momentum across the legacy WPX acreage position. Beginning with our Stateline area, the key takeaway is our co-development drilling program in the Upper Wolfcamp and Bone Spring that is providing great results at a 4 to 5 well spacing per bench. The 26 wells that were brought online in the Stateline area, we continue to outpace type curve expectations with peak 30-day rates averaging around 2,300 BOE per day and the D&C costs associated with this activity improving by 44% compared to just a few years ago. We've also made significant progress in our Monument Draw area with encouraging results at our Cathedral and Bridal Veil projects. As you recall, WPX acquired this asset from Felix about a year ago. With the 2020 slowdown in activity, we're just getting to see the results of the first WPX drilled and completed wells, and we're very pleased with these results and continue to see significant upside to the asset. A critical subset of these projects, which co-developed the Upper Wolfcamp and the Third Bone Spring line, was a trial of a more aggressive flowback methodology, along with improved spacing and also efficient -- a more efficient completion process. The results were lower well cost and again, improved productivity. This approach, which is similar to the techniques in Stateline, was applied to a subset of 6 Wolfcamp wells across the 2 projects. The 38 day IP rates for these wells averaged 2,300 BOE per day with 76% oil. The wellbore cleanout process has improved, and we're not seeing any geomechanical or geochemical downsides to the more aggressive flowbacks. With these positive tests, we will continue to evolve the completion design in Monument Draw program in 2021. As we extrapolate these results, the Monument Draw will compete very effectively for capital with our Delaware Basin portfolio. Turning to Slide 17. I will cover our other positions in our border-to-border premier oil fairway. From the WPX portfolio, the Williston Basin continues to provide phenomenal returns. We will continually -- continue our highly profitable program into 2021. In the Powder, we will continue to deliver on appraisal and leasehold objectives with a focus on advancing our understanding of the emerging Niobrara oil play. Anadarko Basin is back to work with 2 rigs funded by a joint venture partnership. By the way, I have a long history with the Anadarko Basin. I have full confidence in Devon's ability to extract significant value from this asset with the right well placement strategy and operational excellence and where the opportunity presents some leverage through partnerships. Finally, in the Eagle Ford, with our partner with BPX, we plan to run a 2-rig program in 2021 and jump-start our activity by bringing online 22 high-impact DUCs in the first half of the year. Turning to Slide 18. The first key point is that our maintenance capital program is designed to optimize capital efficiency, with approximately 80% of our capital allocated to the Delaware Basin. Within the Delaware, the capital will be relatively evenly split between New Mexico and Texas, with an abundance of flexibility to reallocate capital if we see a differential economic opportunity on either side of the border, or even an unforeseen delay on federal lands. As Rick stated earlier, the capital efficiency associated with this plan is outstanding. We expect to maintain our production at levels slightly elevated to 2020 for roughly 10% less capital on a year-over-year basis. We expect to invest about 30% of our capital -- of our 2021 capital in Q1 due to the timing of D&C activity, with some momentum rolling in from 2020. After this heightened activity for the first quarter, the capital is expected to be more ratable for the balance of 2021. While we expect the current weather conditions to negatively impact first quarter production, we also expect the balance of the year to be relatively flat. As you can see on the right-hand side of the slide, we also continue to act with a sense of urgency to materially improve our cash cost structure in order to get the most value out of -- we can out of every barrel. With this intense focus, we are on track to reduce LOE and GP&T costs by 8%. To achieve this step-change improvement in the field level costs, we have line of sight to meaningfully reduce our recurring LOE expense across several categories, including chemical, water disposal costs, compression and contract labor. The gains that we make in this area often act as ongoing annuities that we will benefit from for years to come. I want to commend the production operations team that fight for these improvements every day. I also want to add some additional color on the severe weather event that's impacting a large part of the U.S. today. First, we are focused on ensuring the safety of our employees and the service company partners that work with us each day in these challenging conditions. I've talked to several of our field leaders over the last few days. And consistently, the first thing they mentioned is protecting the health and safety of people. We also know the critical value of the commodities that we produce. Many of us, as well as our family and friends, have been personally impacted by the lack of electricity necessary to keep up with the demands associated with this intense winter storm. We're doing everything we can to safely keep production flowing to the communities that desperately need it. As we try and quantify the impact of our -- to our first quarter production numbers, I would just say it's too early to tell. We've included some downtime in the annual numbers, but we have elected not to give first quarter guidance at this time. In the coming weeks, we'll have a much better understanding of the impact, and we'll provide additional information on the first quarter expectations. With that, I'll turn it over to Jeff for the financial review.
Jeffrey Ritenour:
Thanks, Clay, and good morning, everyone. My prepared remarks today will focus on the progress we've made advancing our financial strategy, as well as providing some context on a few key metrics that have improved in our 2021 outlook disclosed last night. Beginning on Slide 7 with a review of our balance sheet. Over the past 3 months, we've continued to make progress strengthening our investment-grade financial position. As Rick touched on earlier, the strong operational performance of the combined company allowed us to generate a substantial amount of free cash flow in the quarter and build an incremental $500 million of cash in the quarter. With the benefit of this cash build, Devon possessed $5.6 billion of liquidity at year-end, consisting of $2.6 billion of cash on hand and $3 billion of undrawn capacity on our unsecured credit facility. As market conditions allow, we'll look to further reduce our absolute debt level with select repurchases under our $1.5 billion board authorized debt repurchase program. Subsequent to quarter end in February, we took our initial step in this debt reduction plan by redeeming $43 million of senior notes that were due in 2022. This action completely clears Devon's debt maturity runway until the second half of 2023. We'll have another opportunity to reduce absolute debt in the second quarter with the potential early redemption of our $500 million tranche of 2026 bonds, which become callable in June at a fixed price. With the remainder of our debt reduction program, we'll remain flexible and evaluate opportunities as we keep a close watch on interest rates and credit spreads. Longer term, it's our firm belief that a successful E&P company must maintain extremely low levels of debt, given the volatility of our cash flows. We'll continue to manage towards our stated leverage target of 1x net debt-to-EBITDA or lower, and we've charted a pathway to get there within the next year at today's spot pricing. Our disciplined financial model grounded on a low capital investment ratio -- excuse me, reinvestment ratio and variable dividend payout of only 50% of excess free cash flow allows us to consistently build our cash balance, reducing net debt over time and driving us to our 1x net debt-to-EBITDA target. In addition to our debt reduction efforts, we expect to accelerate the return of cash to shareholders in 2021. Given the stretched balance sheets across the sector, many of our peers will have to reduce debt with free cash rather than returning cash to shareholders. We believe we're uniquely positioned, given our financial strength to do both. To optimize the outcome of our cash return strategy through the cycle, we've adopted a fixed plus variable dividend framework. This cash return strategy is designed to pay a sustainable fixed dividend and evaluate a variable dividend on a quarterly basis. The fixed component of this policy is our legacy quarterly dividend that is paid at a rate of $0.11 per share and targeted at a sustainable payout level of approximately 10% of operating cash flow at mid-cycle pricing. The variable dividend is intended to be a supplemental distribution in periods of excess free cash flow beyond the fixed dividend. More specifically, after the fixed dividend is funded, which is the first call on our free cash flow, up to 50% of the remaining free cash flow in a quarter will be distributed to shareholders through a variable dividend. As Rick touched on earlier, given the strength of our fourth quarter results, the Board has approved Devon's inaugural variable dividend at a rate of $0.19 per share. The remaining excess free cash flow builds upon our balance sheet and reduces our net debt, as I mentioned earlier. Once again, the variable dividend is in addition to Devon's previously declared fixed quarterly dividend of $0.11 per share. Both the fixed and variable dividend will be distributed on March 31st for a total payout of $0.30 per share. And lastly, I'd like to wrap up my comments today on Slide 8 by covering the progress we've made capturing the merger-related synergies that are expected to drive $575 million in annual cash flow improvements by year-end 2021. I won't go through all the details on this slide, but we have a detailed plan in place to meet this target, which includes a range of actions to achieve more efficient field level operations, lower drilling and completion costs, better alignment of personnel with go-forward business and a reduction of financing costs. To be clear, our efforts to reduce costs go beyond just dollars and cents and represent a meaningful shift in our culture to more streamlined leadership, more reliance on technical expertise and intense focus on delivering top-tier returns on our investments. The team is acting with a sense of urgency, and we're running well ahead of plan with approximately 60% of these cost reductions already reflected in our 2021 outlook, and the remaining synergies to achieve our $575 million target have been identified and are expected to be captured on a run rate basis by the end of this year. The value creation of these synergies are very material and impactful to our go-forward value proposition, resulting in a PV10 over the next 5 years of more than $2 billion, or roughly 15% of our market capitalization. We'll provide further updates as we progress through the year. And with that, I'll now turn the call back to Rick for some closing comments before we open the call to Q&A.
Richard Muncrief:
Thanks, Jeff. Nice job. We have covered a lot of good information today, and I'd like to reiterate a few key points. Number one, this transformative merger creates a leading U.S. energy company that possesses arguably the best value proposition in the entire E&P space. Number two, the power of our portfolio is evident with our outstanding fourth quarter operating and financial results. Number three, the momentum that our business has established is resulting in an improved operational and financial outlook for 2021. Number four, our business is scaled to generate substantial amounts of free cash flow, and we are proud to reward shareholders with an industry-first variable dividend. And lastly, number five, we are committed to delivering top-tier ESG performance. And we expect to establish quantitative targets for our environmental priorities later this year. And with that, I'll now turn the call back over to Scott for Q&A.
Scott Coody:
Thanks, Rick. We'll now open the call to Q&A. [Operator Instructions]. With that, operator, we'll take our first question.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions]. Your first question comes from the line of Arun Jayaram with JPMorgan.
Arun Jayaram:
Rick, I wanted to get some insights regarding kind of the decision to start the variable dividend program before the merger -- for the period before the merger was closed, and just thoughts on that decision to kind of accelerate the variable dividend.
Richard Muncrief:
Yes. It's a great question. I think at the end of the day, when we sit down and we look at the pro forma results for the fourth quarter, both legacy companies were so strong. We added so much cash to the balance sheet. We felt like it was a perfect opportunity to get out ahead and say exactly what we -- do exactly what we said we would do, and that's implement this variable dividend in 2021. Now we talked to the Board level. We felt now is a great time to do it. And we wanted to make it substantial enough that it showed our leadership and showed our focus on getting cash back to shareholders, as you well know, which has been one of the -- one of the things that our industry has had pushback from. So we thought it was a great opportunity to show leadership. And so we quickly move that way.
Arun Jayaram:
Great. And my follow-up is, perhaps for Jeff, maybe a two parter for Jeff and Clay. Maybe, Jeff, could you help us maybe reconcile the CapEx guidance between upstream, midstream and total relative to Devon's previous commentary around a, call it, $1.7 billion sustaining kind of program? And Clay, my follow-up there is, maybe if you could talk through the trajectory of 2021 oil volumes. I know you clipped 305 for the fourth quarter. But just maybe help us think about the trajectory over the balance of the year.
Jeffrey Ritenour:
Arun, this is Jeff. Thanks for the question. Yes, simply put, if you look back at the capital program that we rolled out with the merger, that was on a run rate basis. So we were -- we made the assumption that we captured all the synergies, day 1. It obviously accounted for our hedging program at that point in time and really just rolled that forward for the full year. Today what we -- or excuse me, last night, what we've rolled out is what we actually expect the cash expenses to be, obviously, in 2021. As you would expect, as we're working through our integration, the timing of some of those synergies works their way throughout the year. So whereas we had $100 million synergy assumption at the time of the rollout as it related to capital, of course, again, that's captured here as we work our way through '21. And we've tried as best we can in the disclosure we provided last night to provide you the level of detail, to see what the cash flows and CapEx will actually look like here in this current year.
Arun Jayaram:
That's helpful.
Clay Gaspar:
Yes, Arun, I'll answer your 2.b -- 2b question. You want to conform to the one question, one follow-up, I'll give you that. So hey, let me address. I'll throw put on a part C as well, because I think there's a question around the cadence of capital and the cadence of production. So capital first. We have some activity rolling in from 2020 that will -- we just have more activity going on in the first quarter of 2021. And so what we articulated is about a 30% of the capital for '21 will be spent in the first quarter. We caution that even though we're not giving first quarter guidance in earnest, we want to make sure that's in your model so that we don't surprise anybody. We just have more activity in that first quarter. Now I would say, beyond that, second through fourth, it's pretty consistent. We get to the run rate, a steady-state activity, and it's pretty consistent from there. Interestingly, production is almost like an inverse. First quarter, we've got a couple of things happening. Remember, we only have a partial quarter for the WPX production. Don't forget that. And then secondly, this weather impact will hit us in the first quarter. We don't have a good number on that yet. But both of those things will weigh on the first quarter total production numbers. Now beyond the first quarter, and when you think about the full year guidance, second through fourth are pretty steady state, once again. So we're going to have some disruption in the first quarter. We'll tell you a little bit more about that in the coming weeks. But I would say second through fourth, beyond that, we're pretty much in a steady-state environment.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Brian Singer with Goldman Sachs & Company.
Brian Singer:
My first question is with regards to the capital plan. And I think, Rick, you were very clear in saying that the capital plan, you're going to look very closely before reconsidering, based on demand fundamentals, inventories and OPEC+ curtailed volumes and making sure that those are absorbed in the market. And I wanted to follow-up to ask if this means that the capital budget that you've announced today is firm until the above or until those three boxes are checked, or if there is flexibility within the 70%, 80% reinvestment rate framework to move activity around?
Richard Muncrief:
No. I think those sort of boxes are checked. I think you have it captured well. And Brian, we are going to be very disciplined. I know that we're all excited about the strengthening commodity price, but we're not back on demand where we need to be. And I think you see that in the strip. We're in the upper 50s on WTI today, but you lose about $10 a barrel over the next 2 to 3 years. So I think we just need to keep that in perspective. And we will keep that in perspective, and we'll stay disciplined.
Brian Singer:
Great. And then my follow-up is with regards to how you're allocating capital between New Mexico and Texas within the Delaware Basin. You highlighted the 500 permits on federal land that you think can last 4 years. And I wondered if you could add more color on the ability and risks to execute on those 500 permits, which -- and particularly if there's other permits needed, and whether you're getting those more midstream or other permits beyond the drilling permits. And then how you could see the capital allocation relative to an even split between New Mexico and Texas changing, depending on what comes out from the federal government.
Richard Muncrief:
You bet. Brian, I'll start and then I'll pass it off to Clay for a little more color. But at the highest levels, we feel very optimistic that you're going to see the resumption of permits, sundry notices, all these things get back into play in the next month or so, maybe two months. But for sure, the next month. And as you've mentioned, we do have a backlog of permits. We do have a number of pads that have already been constructed, pipelines. The infrastructure has been laid to that. So we feel -- we feel confident in that we'll be able to go to our planned capital activity. Now should we be surprised? That's why we wanted to illustrate the really, really strong results in our Stateline activity that we had in the fourth quarter, with some of the Bone Springs and the Upper Wolfcamp results. The same with Monument Draw. We saw some great performance and excess -- that drove our outperformance on the WPX side, if you look at it from that perspective. So we feel very good about where we're at. We keep lines of communication with, certainly, the leadership in the state of New Mexico. As you know, New Mexico is a state that we know pretty well. Devon has operated in there for nearly 50 years. And personally, as I've shared with many of you on the call, I live about half of my life in the state of New Mexico. I was educated there. My family was raised there. My wife was a school teacher there. We have a lot of relationships there. So I think that we have a pretty clear picture of the reality that will happen. And so we remain confident, Brian. So with that, Clay, you have some more color you want to add?
Clay Gaspar:
I think that was well said. The only thing I would add, Rick, is I think it's our job to be nimble and proactive when it comes to whatever storms are ahead of us that's weather-related, political-related, however it is. And so I think the work, specifically on the Devon legacy side to get ahead of this storm, is a perfect example of that. We can only speak to what we know today. We have a 60-day pause in leasing. We have responded very well. I can tell you from that perspective, we're in really good shape. And I can tell you, we are ready to roll with the punches on whatever comes our way. I mean, we have a -- I think back to Phillips Brooks, the 17th century scholar, we don't pray for lighter load, we pay -- excuse me, pray for a stronger back. That's kind of the job that we're in. So keep rolling.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Doug Leggate with Bank of America.
Doug Leggate:
I appreciate all your remarks today from Rick and your team. Rick, I've got 2 questions. I wanted to pick up on a comment you made, something we care very deeply about, which is you expect Devon to re-rate. I wanted to put it to you that the multiple is the output of 2 inputs, which is capital efficiency and portfolio debt. So my questions are basically on those 2 things. Those are the 2 things, I guess, you can control. So when I look at Slide 8, you've given an update on progress and the synergies. I'm just wondering how you see the risk to those numbers going forward as you've got chance to really peel back the layers of the combined company. That's my first question. My second question is maybe to Clay. You talked about decades of drilling inventory at the current pace. So I wonder if you could break that down for us by basin and specifically speak to the future of the Bakken and the portfolio. I'll leave it there.
Richard Muncrief:
You bet, Doug. Great questions. As far as the synergies, we feel very, very good. We felt confident on the merger rollout. We feel even more confident today than we did then. And so I hope that everyone is hearing that. We already have -- and Jeff, I think, talked about it in some of his prepared remarks, and you may ask him to weigh in as well if I miss something. But at the end of the day, we've captured quite a few of the synergies already and have that built into our 2021 forecast. And so Doug, we feel very good about it. And I don't want investors to underestimate our focus on that, and our diligence on that -- something this management team is highly focused on. So Clay, you want to talk about the capital?
Clay Gaspar:
Sure. The inventory. Yes, Doug, I think the -- as we think about the inventory and how we're investing today, I feel very confident in our ability to run in perpetuity in the Delaware Basin. We talk about a certain amount of high-quality inventory. And I think, rightfully so, the investors only have a certain view of how far they can go out. What I want to articulate is that we feel very confident in that solid next decade of opportunity. And also know that we're continuing to refine those opportunities for years 11, 12 and beyond. This is the basin that keeps on giving. This past quarter, some of the splashiest, most exciting news was around the Second Bone on the Stateline side. And I can tell you, that's just -- that has been something that we've been evolving over the last couple of years. It's not fully baked into our forward look. But I can tell you, just the upside associated with that is tremendous. I'm fully confident on the North side, the same opportunity holds as we move a little bit down structure into the Wolfcamp opportunities. As we talk about other basins, Doug, I know you're -- there's a lot of people new to the WPX side of the story again, but we've never shied away from the fact that we have a quantifiable amount of inventory in the Williston Basin. It has been a tremendous asset for WPX, a huge amount of our growth high, high-quality operations and results. But at end of the day, we're going to run one rig because, for a reason, we have only so much inventory remaining. Now what happens with that asset and what happens with the other assets, it is way too early for us to tell. I'm really excited about some of the real exciting things, basins that I'm kind of looking at for the first time in a few years and kind of some of the opportunities there. So we'll see how we can roll it out over the coming quarters on more information there.
Richard Muncrief:
Doug, one thing I'd say also is the, if I might add, is just the diversity we have throughout our portfolio. Not only are we just over 50% crude oil, but we have a strong leverage to natural gas and natural gas liquids. And so when we talk about diversified, not only is it just a multi-basin opportunity, but it's also a multi-commodity issue. And I want to make sure that we cover -- get that covered.
Doug Leggate:
Maybe just to kind of get to the punchline. The $32 breakeven has already been trending a little lower, Rick. I'm just wondering if there's additional downside potential for that breakeven. I guess that's really the summary question I was trying to get.
Richard Muncrief:
Okay. I think there's always going to be the things where we try to lower that breakeven, Doug. And so we have -- I want you to know, we've got a very focused team here and creative team. And I do think there's some upside to that breakeven down in the upper 20s.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Jeanine Wai with Barclays.
Jeanine Wai:
I hope everybody is managing okay with 50s freeze out there. My first question is for Rick. It's on the reinvestment framework. We know that the "up to 50% payout of the excess free cash flow," that's got certain criteria attached to it related to the balance sheet and the macro. And one of the criteria is strong leverage. And I know a lot of things can happen, and we don't want to get ahead of ourselves, but I guess we are here. But at strip pricing, Devon gets down to its 1x leverage goal within a few years. And even if you do around the max payout, you're still left with sufficient cash after all of that. So if this scenario ends up playing out, is there a next evolution of your corporate strategy, such as revisiting the max 50% payout or moving to additional buybacks? Or would you rather reduce leverage further beyond the 1x just to be conservative?
Richard Muncrief:
Yes, Jeanine, those are good questions. And that is the beauty of Devon today, is we're sitting on -- we're generating a lot of free cash. We're sitting on a lot of cash. We have no near-term debt maturities. As Jeff said in his prepared remarks, we have a good plan of retiring debt over the next couple of years, so we'll be focused on that. To the extent that we pay out up to 50% on the variable dividend, we reduced our debt, we keep moderate growth. Recall, we've laid out a cap of 5% growth on the oil production. I think if all those line up and we still see that we're generating incremental free cash, we'll certainly revisit all those things. But first things first, I think we're excited about implementing the variable dividend. We're excited about being proactive and are paying down debt. We're excited about the free cash flow that we're generating with this amazing team on these amazing assets. So, Jeff?
Jeffrey Ritenour:
Yes. Jeanine, the only other thing I would add is, Rick hit all the right points. If we get into that situation, not only will we reevaluate the upper limit of the variable dividend target, but I think you'll also be thinking about growing your fixed dividend. We want to make sure we maintain that at a sustainable level, kind of in a normalized price environment. But that would be another lever we could pull, was to start thinking about the growth of the fixed dividend component and then thinking about the upper end on the variable as well. And then, again, I would marry that with -- we would certainly talk to the Board about buybacks if the opportunity presented itself.
Jeanine Wai:
Okay. Great. My second question maybe is for Clay, and it's following up on Doug's question just now on deal synergies. I know not much time has passed since the deals closed. But where do you see the most potential upside on additional synergy capture? Do you think it's more on the D&C side of things? Because we noticed that the legacy WPX well costs were down meaningfully. Or do you think it's more in the netback improvement bucket?
Clay Gaspar:
Yes. Thanks for the question, Jeanine. As I think about the synergies, some of the things I'm most excited about is just we are just now blending teams. I mean this week, we are finalizing a lot of the organizational structure, and these teams really have yet to kind of sit around even the virtual table together, look each other in the virtual eyes and say, okay, how do we share these best practices. Some of the observations from the folks that have been working and on -- really on task, I would say some of the application of the WPX completion techniques and efficiencies are very applicable to the Devon side of the house. And I think some of the casing design, drilling efficiencies on the Devon side of the house are very applicable to the south side of the border. And so there are some immediate things that you have to try, you have to work through these. But there's things we're experimenting with in real time. I think on the supply chain side of the organization, I would characterize Devon as exceptionally good at understanding contracting strategy and have done some really innovative things around the contracts in the business side of supply chain. I would say on the WPX side, the engineering side of the house has done a good job of understanding those contracts and bringing out the most appropriate value. And as you can see, those two things coming together will really materialize into additional value. So I'm excited about the D&C, the capital synergies that we have ahead of us. I'm also excited, as I mentioned in the prepared remarks, about some of the things that are kind of more annuitized payments like LOE and GP&T. We're starting to see some early wins there. We're a long way down the road on some of the G&A savings. And of course, we've talked about those being fully baked in, really starting early '22. But you'll see a lot of that manifest during the course of '21. So really excited about where we're going, and we're just getting started.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Brian Downey with Citigroup.
Brian Downey:
Clay, I was curious if you could dig in more on the -- your comments around the aggressive flowback methodology you mentioned in the legacy Felix portion of the Delaware Basin. I'm curious, thought process there, given I believe you're actually testing a slowback strategy there a year or so ago. What has been the findings to date? And is that something you'll apply in other areas? And I guess, lastly, is that a strategy that will be at all dependent on your view of absolute commodity price or shape of the forward curve as we think about initial production rates versus the production curve there?
Clay Gaspar:
Thanks for the question, Brian. Yes. Certainly, all of these things are dependent on the macro environment
Brian Downey:
And your point about the facilities, does that impact at all the capital spend? Like is there any benefit of the flowback strategy beyond the initial production rate?
Clay Gaspar:
Yes. Again, all of that comes into play. How you design your facilities maybe for efficiency, maybe you need to scale them up, maybe you can combine with multiple wells on a pad. Those are all things. I mean, even direct flowback, straight bypassing tanks into the markets, into the oil lines, the gas lines and to the water disposal. Those are all things that we're exploring right now to bring out those dollars, both from the capital side. And of course, you don't want to give up on the productivity side. And so we're very cognizant of that at the same time.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Nitin Kumar with Wells Fargo.
Nitin Kumar:
First of all, I want to just congratulate you on delivering on the promises you made on what we call Shale 3.0. Rick We talked a little bit about, and you've addressed the federal acreage issue. I'm going to use Clay's words, you are -- your job is to look a bit the strongest ahead. The regulatory environment is changing. There are other things. Can you maybe talk a little bit about what else you see out there and how you're changing the operations of the combined company to address things like the DAPL issue or flaring or taxes and things like that?
Richard Muncrief:
Sure. I would say that, as Clay mentioned, we are just now getting our teams together and having some real meaty discussions about future opportunities over and above what we've laid out from the synergies. Let's -- in the merger. I will say, go down the list there, with DAPL, we feel that as you recall, we had -- made sure that we would not be impeded in any way. We did take out a 1-year rail agreement to handle some of the smaller percentage of the total volumes that we have up in the Williston. That's -- that gives us an added protection. I do think that there is probably more upside. I think the market is priced down -- mostly downside, and I think that that's somewhat overbaked. I think that when you really think about the efficiency of DAPL getting the crude oil to the markets in a very efficient way, very safe way, very environmentally friendly way, I tend to believe that the new administration will see it the same way. So we'll see it all plays out. As far as some of the other things, I can tell you that flaring is something that -- we'll touch on that for just a moment. We continue to try to drive down flaring even more. I think that the legacy Devon had done a good job with WPX. We were a little bit more challenged, quite honestly, up in the Bakken, but we've made some great progress there. You'll see that some of the incremental midstream dollars we plan to spend this year, a direct result some of the phenomenal results we saw in the Stateline area. And what we saw, the reality was we started bumping up against some of our systems' capabilities. And if you didn't watch it, you'd end up flaring more. We don't want to do that. And so we're getting out ahead of that. But Nitin, I think what you'll see, certainly, Clay and his teams are going to be very, very focused on what you're bringing up. You'll hear more of that as we go throughout the future. But it's something that's very, very important to us.
Nitin Kumar:
Great. And Rick, you always looked forward, I remember when you were at WPX, you had looked forward to the midstream issues, the basin had and kind of planned ahead for it. The other topic is ESG, and I appreciate your comments earlier on the different pillars there. But is there an opportunity for the new Devon, given your balance sheet, given your footprint and -- to create any opportunity out of that? And I'm thinking about any lines of business or revenue streams down the road that you could participate in.
Richard Muncrief:
Nitin, that's something that we actually -- our senior leadership team, had our first combined strategy session, where we thought about just those opportunities. And a bit more to come on that, but it's something that we're spending quite a bit of time evaluating the true opportunities, the true threats around the energy transition that we hear a lot about. So we want to be thoughtful. We want to be very good stewards of our capital that we have, the cash flows that we have. And -- but I think that's something you'll hear us -- more dialogue from our team as we go forward. We are going to be very thoughtful in our approach.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Paul Cheng with Scotia Bank.
Paul Cheng:
Two question, please. I think the first one is for Jeff and Rick and the second one is probably for Clay. Historically, that -- the E&P sector, the balance sheet is weak and they spend too much money. So everyone is evolving with a lot of hedging. As Devon today, with a much stronger balance sheet, much larger scale and a very low breakeven requirement, do we really need to have the hedging program? I mean, long term, this doesn't really create value since no one can predict the future. And yet if you want re-rating from the long-only accounts, could it be possible that by not having the hedging, it will simplify and make it easier for the long-only account to understand and analyzing the company and make it more easy for them to invest? So that's the first question. The second question relates to the Powder River Basin, that for this year, you are looking at appraisal and derisking. So Clay, can you maybe share with us that. What is the time line and what type of program we could see for the Powder River Basin and in the Niobrara over the next, say, 3 to 4 years?
Jeffrey Ritenour:
Paul, this is Jeff. I think I'll take your first question on the hedging. Philosophically, we haven't changed our view, which is, for some time now, we believe it's incredibly important to use both the balance sheet and our hedging program to maintain our financial strength. We think it's important for all of our investors to try to minimize the volatility that we see in our cash flows on a quarter-to-quarter and year-to-year basis. It allows us to, frankly, plan and manage our operational activity and maintain and sustain a pretty consistent level of activity, which I think Clay would tell you, is really important in the day-to-day operations of our business. And so we -- philosophically, we like to think about having roughly 50% of our cash flows hedged in any one given year. That's where we sit right now, just to give a recap on where we sit on both oil and gas today. We're just below 50% for 2021 and just over 50% on natural gas for 2021. As you look ahead into 2022, we do have some hedges in place, but that's less than -- roughly around 15% of our position is hedged at this point on both commodities. As you know, Paul, we typically use our systematic program to be in the market on a month-to-month basis and layer in hedges at market. And then we layer on top of that, hedges with our discretionary program as we see different opportunities arise in the market. So I don't think you'll see us change from that tactic in the near future. We certainly recognize that with commodity prices moving higher, it's a real benefit. But we think it's important to try to limit the amount of that volatility that we see in our cash flows on a go-forward basis. Clay?
Clay Gaspar:
Yes, Paul, I'll take your second question in regards to Powder River. What I could tell you is I've personally worked the Powder, worked at Eagle Ford, worked the Anadarko Basin over the years. And what I'm very strongly trying to do with a lot of discipline is not let my view from 10 or 15 or 20 years ago kind of overshadow what's the current state of what's going on. What we have right now is such an incredible opportunity. We're going to have fresh eyes on all of these assets. And so to really take a fresh look at what's the opportunity ahead, how do we fund that, how do we maximize the value to shareholders with this incredible footprint, and know that we're a 0% to 5% growth company, we are cash flow generators, and that is kind of the overall structure and drive of the organization. So I would say it's a little early. My views are a little bit dated. And that team, I think, has a lot of opportunity ahead. And the doors are wide open to whatever we see as the most viable economics for our disciplined capital allocation program.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Neal Dingmann with Truist Securities.
Neal Dingmann:
Nice job so far, Rick. My question, Clay, for you looking at -- looking at that Slide 14, obviously, the massive acreage. Could you talk a bit about you've now got that massive footprint. Could you talk about cadence as you approach not only this year, but how you sort of see that maybe even 2, 3-year plan?
Clay Gaspar:
Yes. Neal, I'll reference back to my comments on -- to Paul on the last question. it's hard to predict 2 to 3 years from now. I don't want to let my bias coming in. I understand the south side of the acreage a lot better than I do the north side of the acreage. We have fresh sets of eyes on the north side. On the south side, we have teams that are that are working together to share those best practices. And the big message for the investors is we have lots of flexibility. I fully expect, as we've articulated, the initial guidance would be 80% of our capital, relatively equally split north side of the border, south side of the border. I would wager that by the end of the year, we will see differential economic opportunities, either drawing money to the north or to the south, that will influence that. But I just can't tell you today, which one of those economic opportunities are going to prevail. And I think it'd be presumptive on my part to do so. So I look forward to the team's diving in. We've got a lot of flexibility, a lot of optionality, and we will make the most of that without prior prejudice. So thanks for the question.
Neal Dingmann:
Yes. And then one last follow-up if I could. Just you guys, I know I'm trying to think of WPS, how long ago this was maybe a year or two, you did that great right of way deal that you added some -- just key right of ways. And I believe that could continue to be potential with the new administration initiative. Could you talk about how you and Rick, not only just pure infrastructure, but your thoughts about just your right-of-way excess ability going forward?
Clay Gaspar:
Yes, Neal, what you're talking about is our surface acreage acquisition, it was a $100 million deal a couple of years ago when we basically bought a significant chunk of land under our most viable subsurface acreage. And the logic there was we wanted to make sure to preserve our optionality to fully develop this asset. We could see a third-party coming in and just kind of squeezing us from a surface side. This is such a beautiful, contiguous operation from roads, from pipes, from electrical infrastructure. And then whatever -- however we decide to leverage that go forward, I can tell you that $100 million investment has paid out in spades. And we have really been pleased with that -- I can't say that too many more of those opportunities exist. Stateline is a pretty unique 50,000 to 60,000 acre big continuous block. And so that was a pretty unique situation. But where those one-off opportunities, we'll continue to present and we'll evaluate and remain good stewards of the shareholders' investment.
Richard Muncrief:
Neal, this is Rick. As you recall, we did have some questions about why -- when capital was tied, we want to lead in on that $100 million investment. And I think it just played into our strategy of getting out ahead of potential challenges you may have in the future. So that's something you'll continue to see us do. We're -- we expect to be questioned sometimes on a little more clarity on some of the capital. But we think we've established a pretty good track record of being very prudent with our capital spending.
Scott Coody:
All right. Well, I see that we're at the top of the hour. I appreciate everyone's interest in Devon today. And if you have any further questions, please don't hesitate to reach out to a member of the Investor Relations team at any time. Have a good day.
Richard Muncrief:
Thank you very much.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, that does conclude today's conference call. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Welcome to Devon Energy’s Third Quarter 2020 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] This call is being recorded. I’d now like to turn the call over to Mr. Scott Coody, Vice President of Investor Relations. Sir, you may begin.
Scott Coody:
Good morning, and thank you to everyone for joining us on the call today. Last night, we issued an earnings release and presentation that cover our results for the third quarter and updated outlook for the reminder of the year. Throughout the call today, we will make references to our earnings presentation to support our prepared remarks, and these slides can be found on our website at devonenergy.com. Also joining me on the call today are Dave Hager, our President and CEO; David Harris, our Executive Vice President of Exploration and Production; Jeff Ritenour, our Chief Financial Officer; and a few other members of our senior management team. Comments on the call today will include plans, forecasts and estimates that are forward-looking statements under U.S. Securities law. These comments are subject to assumptions, risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ from our forward-looking statements. Please take note of the cautionary language and the risk factors provided in our SEC filings and earnings materials. With that, I’ll turn the call over to Dave.
Dave Hager:
Thank you, Scott and good morning. We appreciate everyone taking the time to join us on the call today and for your interest in Devon. For the purpose of today’s call, my comments will be centered on three key points, our outstanding third quarter results, our improved outlook for the remainder of the year and the benefits of our recently announced merger with WPX. On Slide 7 of our earnings presentation, I’ll begin my prepared remarks by covering a few key highlights from our outstanding third quarter results. Across the portfolio, our teams are responding to a challenging operating environment by delivering results that continue to exceed production and capital efficiency targets, while successfully driving down per unit operating costs and maximizing margins. This is evidenced by several noteworthy accomplishments in the quarter, including oil production exceeded midpoint guidance by 6,000 barrels per day, complimented with capital spending that was once again below forecast. Furthermore, we continue to expand margins through improvements in our cost structure, headlined by operating expenses of 8% below guidance and G&A costs are reduced 30% year-over-year. With this strong operational performance, we generated $223 million of free cash flow in the quarter. And just after quarter end with the closing of the Barnett transaction, we paid out a $100 million special dividend. All in all, the third quarter is an excellent one, both operationally and financially, as we executed a very high level on every single strategic objective that underpins our business model. This strong performance is a testament to the hard work and dedication of our team. And I want to thank our employees for their continued commitment to excellence. Moving to Slide 11. With the strong results our business has delivered to date, we’re now raising our outlook for the remainder of 2020. Not surprisingly, this improved outlook is underpinned by the outstanding well performance we are experiencing in the Delaware Basin. And as a result, we are now increasing our full year oil guidance for the second consecutive quarter. Looking specifically at the upcoming quarter. We now expect our oil production to average 148,000 to 153,000 barrels per day a 7,000 barrels per day improvement versus prior guidance expectations. Importantly, we’re delivering this incremental production with $30 million less capital compared to the revised budget we issued earlier this year. We also continue act with a sense of urgency to materially improve our cash cost structure in order to get the most out of every barrel we produce. With this intense focus, we are on track to reduce LOE and GP&T costs by approximately $0.50 per unit or 6% compared to our previous expectations. To achieve this step level improvement and field level costs, we have meaningfully reduced our recurring LOE expense across several categories, including chemical and disposal costs, compression and contract labor. We have also taken steps to streamline our organization’s corporate cost structure. This is clearly demonstrated by our G&A expense trajectory improving by around $35 million compared to the revised budget. And we expect to achieve a $250 million G&A run rate target by year-end. Turning briefly to Slide 13. The positive impact from higher volumes, better capital efficiency and strong cost discipline is resulted in increasing amounts of free cash flow in 2020. Including the proceeds of the Barnett Shale divestiture that closed on October 1, we are on pace to generate around $900 million of free cash flow this year. This is a tremendous accomplishment given the incredibly challenging conditions we have faced this year. And importantly, with this excess cash flow, we have rewarded shareholders with higher dividend payments. Turning your attention back to Slide 3 of our presentation. I’d like to cover the strategic rationale underpinning our recently announced merger with WPX. This groundbreaking transaction announced on September 28, represents the first true merger of equals within the E&P space in nearly two decades. This strategic combination of Devon and WPX is transformational, as we unite our complimentary assets to create a leading unconventional oil producer in the U.S. with an asset base underpinned by a premium position in the economic core of the Delaware Basin. By bringing together our respective companies, shareholders will benefit from enhanced scale, immediate cost synergies, higher free cash flow and the financial strength to accelerate the return of cash to shareholders through an industry first fixed plus variable dividend strategy. Additionally, the low premium stock for stock combination underscores our confidence that this transaction will allow shareholders of both companies to benefit from synergy realization and the powerful upside potential associated with our financially driven business model. The path to completing this merger is progressing well. We received HSR clearance last week, S-4 proxy will be filed within the next few days and both companies plan to hold shareholder votes around year end to finalize the merger. Integration plans are also underway, led by a transition team, comprised of senior leaders from each company. In addition to ensuring a seamless transition, the team is also tasked with capitalized on the synergies and operational efficiencies that contribute to the significant upside of the combined company. Moving to Slide 4. The value of our merger with WPX lies not only in the power of our enhanced scale and strong financial position, but also in how we will manage our company in the future. As I have mentioned many times in the past, with a commodity business such as ours, any successful strategy must be grounded in supply and demand fundamentals. We understand the maturing demand dynamics for our industry and recognize the traditional E&P growth model of the past is not a viable strategy going forward. To win in the next phase of the energy cycle, a successful company must deploy a financially driven business model that prioritizes cash returns directly to shareholders. Devon is an industry leader in its cash return movement and with this highly disciplined strategy, we’re absolutely committed to limiting top-line growth aspirations to 5% or less in times of favorable conditions, pursuing margin expansion through operational scale and leaner corporate structure, moderating investment raise to 70% to 80% of operating cash flow, maintaining extremely low levels of leverage to establish a greater margin of safety and returning more cash directly to shareholders through quarterly and variable dividends. I believe these shareholder friendly initiatives that underpin our cash return business model will transform Devon from a highly efficient oil and gas operator to a prominent and consistent builder of economic value through the cycle. With the extreme price volatility we have recently experienced, I do want to provide a few preliminary thoughts on 2021. While it is a bit too early to provide any formal guidance, I want to be clear that our top priorities are to protect our financial strength, aggressively reduce costs and protect our productive capacity. We believe we can accomplish all these objectives in the current operating environment. In fact, with our strong hedging position and pro forma cost structure, we can fund our maintenance capital program at an ultra low breakeven level of $33 WTI pricing, if not lower with the leading edge results we are achieving in the Delaware. We will provide more formalized guidance for 2021 upon completion of the merger with WPX, but we will remain mindful of commodity prices, nimble with our capital plans and we will invest responsibly to protect shareholder value during this time of uncertainty. And finally, on Slide 5, another critically important component of Devon’s business model is our commitment to delivering top tier ESG performance. Doing business the right way has always been a focal point for Devon and predates the growing focus on ESG that has taken off in recent years. We believe the strong ESG performance – strong performance in the ESG space is essential and impacts every aspect of our business operationally and financially. As with all other aspects of our business, our focus is to control what we can control, while providing energy the world needs and we take pride in fulfilling this need in a reliable and responsible manner. As such, our top environmental priorities include eliminating routine flaring, reducing emissions, and advancing water recycling. In addition to these environmental objectives, we strive to cultivate an inclusive and diverse workplace where broad experiences and fresh perspectives can sharpen our competitive edge. From a governance perspective, we are proud of the combined company where we’ll have a strong, diverse and independent board committed to responsible operations to advance the best interest of all stakeholders. The bottom line is we are committed to these principles, which is underscored by the inclusion of ESG performance as a key measure in our compensation structure. So in summary, I want to emphasize, as a Go-Forward Devon has all the necessary attributes to successfully navigate and flourish in today’s environment, and to create value for many years to come. Our shareholder-friendly strategy is designed to result in attractive returns and free cash flow yields that will compete with any sector in the market. The combination of our top tier asset portfolio, proven leadership team and disciplined business model offers a unique investment proposition in the E&P space. And with that, I’m going to turn the call over to David Harris to cover a few of our operational highlights from the quarter.
David Harris:
Good morning, everyone. As Dave touched on, Devon’s operations are hitting on all cylinders as we have repeatedly delivered best-in-class results over the past several quarters. Turning your attention to Slide 8 of our earnings presentation, our world-class Delaware basin asset is the capital efficient growth engine driving Devon’s operational outperformance in the third quarter. With our capital activity, almost exclusively focused in the Delaware, our high margin production continued to rapidly advance growing 22% on a year-over-year basis. During the third quarter, our operated activity consisted of nine drilling rigs and three dedicated frac crews resulting in 32 new wells commencing first production. With most of these completions weighted towards the back half of the quarter, only 14 of these new wells meaningfully impacted production totals in the third quarter by attaining peak production rates. Overall, initial 30-day production rates from these 14 wells average an impressive 3,900 BOE per day of which greater than 65% was oil. And those Wells collectively rank among the very best results we have delivered today in this world-class basin. While we had great results across our Delaware basin acreage position in the quarter, new well activity was highlighted by the record setting well productivity from our Cobra project in Lea County. This two wells three mile lateral development targeting the XY sands in the upper Wolfcamp achieved average 30 day rates of approximately 7,300 BOE per day or 475 BOE per 1000 feet of lateral. These wells drilled in the deepest part of the basin or the longest wells drilled in the history of the Delaware by measured depth and are the highest rate Wolfcamp wells, we have brought online to date at Devon. Importantly, the capital cost for the Cobra project came in nearly 20% below our pre-drill expectations. Our result that Cobra is another example of the industry leading performance we have consistently achieved in the Delaware over the past few years. This performance reflects the quality of our acreage and our technical understanding of the subsurface that allows us to identify the best landing zones. Furthermore, with the experience of drilling hundreds of horizontal wells in the basin, our results are aided by understanding parent-child dynamics, appropriate well spacing per development and customize completion designs to optimize results. I am confident we can continue to deliver this differentiated well productivity in the Delaware going forward. Our large contiguous stack pay position in the economic core of the play provides us a multi-decade inventory opportunity. And we have a deep inventory of approved federal drilling permits in hand that essentially cover all of our desired activity over the next presidential term. Turning your attention to the left-hand of Slide 9 in addition to strong well productivity, another key highlight for the quarter is the substantially improved drilling and completion cost results we’ve achieved in the Delaware basin. This is evidenced by our drilled and completed costs reaching $560 per lateral foot in the third quarter, a 40% improvement compared to 2018. These results are absolutely best-in-class among our peers. The key drivers of this performance are the continual optimization of drilling and completion designs, along with repetition gains from drilling two-mile Wolfcamp wells and non-productive time improvements across all phases of the value chain. These are truly special results. And I would like to congratulate our operating team for this outstanding accomplishment. However, we are never done improving in based on leading edge results, we expect our steadily improving cycle times and costs to provide a capital efficiency tailwind into 2021. Shifting your attention to the right-hand portion of the slide, we have also done a lot of good work to expand our margins by lowering per unit operating costs by 26% since 2018. One of the most meaningful sources of cost improvement is the scalable infrastructure we have proactively built out. We have nearly all of our oil and produced water connected the pipes to avoid the higher expensive trucking, and is also a major positive from a safety and an environmental perspective. Looking specifically at our water infrastructure, we are fully integrated with nine water recycling facilities, 40 operated saltwater disposal wells, and connections to several third-party water systems. This operating scale and flexibility allows us to source more than 90% of our operational water needs from either recycled or brackish water at costs that are well below market rates. This strategic infrastructure provides the advantage of avoiding the extremely high expense of trucking in the remote desert of Southeast New Mexico, which can easily exceed a couple of dollars per barrel. A few important – other important factors to our cost improvement in the Delaware are the use of leading edge data analytics that have reduced controllable downtime in the field by 12% year-over-year, as well as supply chain initiatives that leverage our purchasing power to secure services at advantage rates. The bottom line is that the hard work and thoughtful planning from our operations team and supply chain personnel positions us to capture additional savings that many of our competitors cannot. And with that, I’ll turn the call over to Jeff Ritenour for a brief financial review.
Jeff Ritenour:
Thanks, David. My comments today will be focused on a brief review of our financial results for the quarter and the next steps in the execution of our financial strategy. A good place to start today is by reviewing our financial performance in the quarter where Devon’s earnings and cash flow per share comfortably exceeded consensus estimates. Operating cash flow for the third quarter totaled $427 million, a rebound of nearly 200% compared to last quarter. This level of cash flow fully funded our capital spending requirements and generated $223 million cash flow in the quarter. At the end of September, Devon had $4.9 billion of liquidity, consisting of $1.9 billion of cash on hand, and $3 billion of undrawn capacity on our unsecured credit facility. Subsequent to quarter end on October 1, our liquidity was further bolstered by the closing of our Barnett Shale divestiture. For those of you not familiar with the transaction, we agreed to sell our Barnett Shale assets for up to $830 million of total proceeds, consisting of $570 million in cash and contingent payments of up to $260 million. After adjusting for purchase price adjustments, which includes $170 million deposit we received in April and accrued cash flow from the effective date, we received a net cash payment at closing of $320 million. In conjunction with the closing of this transaction, we returned a portion of the proceeds to shareholders by way of a $100 million special dividend. This special dividend was paid on October 1 in the amount of $0.26 per share. With the excess cash inflows, our business is on track to generate in 2020. We expect our cash balances to exceed $2 billion by year end. The top priority for the large amount of cash we have accumulated is the repayment of up to $1.5 billion of outstanding debt between Devon and WPX. This debt reduction plan will provide a nice uplift to the go-forward company’s cash flow resulting in interest savings of approximately $75 million on an annual run rate basis. We expect to execute our debt reduction plan throughout 2021 with completion by year end. We’ll be mindful of macroeconomic conditions and remain flexible with how we execute the repurchases, which may include both open market transactions and tender offers. Should commodity prices to deteriorate from current levels, we’ll prioritize liquidity and defer debt repurchases to a more appropriate time. Longer-term, it is our fundamental belief that a successful E&P company must maintain extremely low levels of leverage, in accordance with this belief, we’ll continue to manage towards our stated leverage target of around one times net debt to EBITDA. Turning your attention to Slide 14 with our business scale to consistently generate free cash flow, another key financial priority for Devon is to further accelerate the return of cash to shareholders through higher dividends. However, we believe the traditional dividend growth model deployed by most U.S.-based companies is flawed when applied to a commodities business. The historical practice in industry of raising the fixed quarterly dividend and times of prosperity and cutting the dividend or under investing in the core business during down cycles is not an optimal solution. With these specific challenges in mind, we’re implementing an industry first fixed plus variable dividend framework to optimize the return of cash to shareholders through the cycle. This progressive dividend strategy is uniquely designed for our inherently volatile business, whereby a sustainable fixed dividend is paid every quarter and a supplemental variable dividend is also calculated and reviewed each quarter. More specifically, upon closing of our merger with WPX, Devon’s fixed quarterly dividend will remain unchanged and paid quarterly at a rate of $0.11 per share with a target payout of approximately 10% of operating cash flow, assuming mid-cycle pricing. In addition to the fixed quarterly dividend up to 50% of the excess free cash flow in a given quarter will be distributed to shareholders through the supplemental variable dividend, if certain liquidity, leverage and forward-looking price criteria are met. In conjunction, with this more flexible dividend payout strategy, we will also utilize a portion of the combined companies’ excess free cash flow to further improve our balance sheet and evaluate opportunistic share repurchases. With that, I’ll turn the call back over to Scott for Q&A.
Scott Coody:
Thanks, Jeff. We will now open the call to Q&A. [Operator Instructions] With that operator, we’ll take our first question.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Doug Leggate with Bank of America. Your line is now open.
Kalei Akamine:
Good morning, guys. This is actually Kalei on for Doug. I’ve got two questions, if I may. Both are related to public policy on oil and gas. So under a potential Biden administration, obviously, if there is a risk to the industry. Firstly, what’s your understanding of the potential of subsidies to the industry that could be targeted? And specifically, I’m thinking about items like IDCs or even a minimum book tax that could raise cash costs on the business. How would this change items like your breakeven and how you pursue your activity levels?
Jeff Ritenour:
This is Jeff. To be honest, I don’t have a lot of specific details around any changes that the Biden administration is planning or as talked about, certainly to the extent that IDC were to be limited or changed in some way that would be impactful, certainly to our financial results and the taxable income that we would generate as a company. So that’s something, we’ll certainly, have to be on a watch for and be mindful of, but we don’t have any specific details at this point in time.
Kalei Akamine:
All right, thanks. For my second question, I just like to ask for an update on your federal acreage plans. How many permits have been secured? To what date does that bring you to? And if that window – if you anticipate that window closing under a new administration, to obtain permits, what’d you think that would close?
Dave Hager:
Well, I’ll start off here and David can provide detail. So I think we’ve said in our prepared remarks, so we anticipate having about 650 federal permits by the end of the year. 80% of those are going to be in the Delaware basin or about 520 federal permits in the Delaware basin by the end of the year is our anticipation. The key point of that is that covers four years of activity that we would anticipate in a Delaware basin. And that’s keeping in mind, when I say that even under the maintenance capital scenario or production overall for the company would remain flat. That means though in the Delaware basin, we would be growing our production. So that’s a level of permits that would allow production to actually grow in the Delaware basin while keeping the overall production for the company as flat. And the other thing, I’d mentioned too is keep in mind, we are very well aligned with the state here. The 40% of the revenue in New Mexico comes from oil and gas activities. And the state understands extremely well. Governor Grisham who’s on the Biden transition team understands and supports very much oil and gas activity in the state. So I know there’s a lot of discussion around this and I understand, if why, but the alignment with the state and what we do as an industry for the state to help out with other social needs that the state has is extremely important. And everyone in the state of New Mexico understands that. And so it’s a great hypothetical question, but frankly, we think most likely is that things will slowdown. But there’s not going to be a stopping of activity on federal acreage. Even if there is, we have four years worth of activity covered with the permits we anticipate by the end of the year. So David, did I miss anything there?
David Harris:
No, you didn’t. I couldn’t have said it better myself. I think you’ve covered all the relevant points and agree with everything you said.
Kalei Akamine:
Guys, I appreciate that answer. Maybe if I get to that follow-up for clarification, I’m just wondering if any of the 650 permits that have been secured, if they require any extensions by the federal government, because four years is obviously a long period at the time?
Dave Hager:
Yes. Federal permits are issued with a two-year term and then you have the ability to extend them for an additional two years. So certainly, permits that are out would be out past that two year-term, would require us to go through the extension process. But a couple of things I’d point out to you there, we’ve never had an extension denied before. And it’s important to know that the permits are under lied by environmental assessment. That’s done as part of the permitting process and those environmental assessments are good for a period of five years. So the answer to your question is yes, but we don’t foresee many material impacts from that.
Kalei Akamine:
Perfect. I appreciate it guys. Thank you.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Brian Singer with Goldman Sachs. Your line is now open.
Brian Singer:
Thank you. Good morning. Another topic that’s come up here and with some of the M&A that’s happened in the Permian basin after the Devon WPX announcement is the topic of decline rates. And you highlighted the very strong well performance that you’re seeing and have been seeing in the Delaware basin. And I wonder if you could give us an update on where you see your Permian and corporate decline rate and how you expect that to evolve in 2021 in a maintenance program?
David Harris:
Good morning, Brian, this is David Harris. Yes. As we’ve talked about in the past, if you – just starting with our year ends reserve report that we filed last year, if you look at those decline rates on a company-wide basis that put us in kind of a high-30s percent on an oil basis and in the low-30s on a BOE basis. As we move forward into this year and as we’ve been moderating capital, then combined with some of the fantastic work that the teams are doing from a base production perspective, which we continue to see outperform quarter-over-quarter. Our expectation is that on a company-wide basis, that oil rate would move from the high-30s to the low-30s and on a BOE basis down into the mid-20s.
Brian Singer:
Great. Thank you. And then my follow-up is also with regards to the Permian. On Slide 10, you talk about in some detail the various projects that you have and where and the order of completion, drilling and production they lie. And I wondered as you contemplate the WPX acquisition. And you think about where a maintenance drilling program between the two companies where you would prioritize, how would you see the Devon legacy drilling activity, evolving, how would this, the main areas that you highlight on the top left of right hand? Would you be drilling more – fewer wells there? How would you think about the prioritization in the context of having WPX assets?
Dave Hager:
Well, we’re still in the process of developing a – obviously, a combined 2021 capital program. We don’t have anything specific to leg out there. But obviously, in the Delaware basin, where we’re drilling the legacy Devon wells, we’re delivering best-in-class costs for these wells. Productivity that’s as good as is about anybody out there. And obviously, even get a little bit of advantage of a lower royalty rate on federal acreage as well. And so the economics on the Devon legacy activity are incredibly strong. Probably on average, I’d say even a little bit stronger than the WPX, but the WPX is extremely strong also. And that’s why we like it. But it’s hard to talk, what you can do right here in Lea and Eddy County. And so I’d see, we haven’t gotten – we haven’t developed any sort of combined budget, but it’s – they’re both highly economic areas, probably the overall edge on an average basis would probably go to the activity in Lea and Eddy County on the federal – on the Devon legacy, Devon acreage.
Brian Singer:
Got it. Great. And the last one, if I could just add one more of the $560 per foot, the cost that you achieved in the third quarter of 2020. Do you care to hazard a forecast for where that could be in 2021 in a maintenance type scenario?
Dave Hager:
Well. We have been highlighting improved performance on a cost per foot basis every quarter for the last couple of years. I mean, we just continue to find ways to step that down. And to your comment about hazarding, I guess, frankly, to points to levels that I’m not sure I would’ve thought, we could get to. And so I think a lot of what we’re doing here, there is a bit of service cost inflation in there. But I would tell you in my mind, probably three-fourths of the improvement that we’re making, here over the last quarter – in the last several quarters is efficiency driven. And so we believe that’s going to be more structural. So we absolutely believe we can carry forward these levels and continue with rate of change. As we move forward into 2021, and we think that’s going to be a nice capital efficiency tailwind, and another leg to the capital efficiency story. Brian, one thing that, people will say, why are you doing this? How can you do this? Well, I’d say one of the big things that we have going for us is that we went – we were the first ones to go to 10,000 foot laterals in the Wolfcamp out here. And we admittedly, we had a few wells and at the beginning, where I’d say we stubbed our toes a little bit, they were challenging at first for us. Most industry are drilling 7,500 foot laterals. We went to 10,000. But because we went early and we figured it out and we went up – what we call a modified swim hole design, that design has turned out to be very robust and be the appropriate design that we have now stayed with for a long time. So we have many, many reputations of drilling the same type well over and over and over many more than I think that many of our peer companies out there with this particular design. And that just allows us to be further down on the efficiency curve. Now, are we done? We absolutely are never done. No way. But I think if there’s a question – this almost seems too good to be true. Why are you able to do this? I would say those are a couple of the big things, as well as allowing us to optimize our costs from our vendors when you go to that fixed design like that.
Brian Singer:
Thank you.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Neal Dingmann with Truist Securities. Your line is now open.
Neal Dingmann:
Good morning, guys. Dave, my first question for you or Jeff, is to get kind of talked about a little bit, that’s really on Slide 14. And you’ve talked a lot about your thoughts about the variable dividend, but I just want to make sure I’m clear. On that Slide, you talk about that the dividend can be up to a 50% of excess free cash. I’m just wondering when deriving that or thinking about that, how should we think of that prior to that, where you want the debt level – is that once you get the debt level to a certain point, and once you have growth at a certain point, I’m just wondering how I should think about that when sort of factors in leverage and the growth?
Dave Hager:
Well, I’ll start off here, and then Jeff can chime in. So what we’ve said and I’ll talk about the combined Devon WPX here, pro forma that we are breakevens for maintenance capital would be $33 WTI. And frankly, with what we’re talking about this morning, it looks like, we’re tending to drive that lower. We don’t have a new number for you today, but obviously the results that we talked about today would tend to drive that breakeven even lower. Then if you add the fixed dividend that would take the breakeven up to $37 and we’ve said that we will invest at maintenance capital levels up to around $45 per share. So we would be building free cash flow in that range. And once we get to $45 we’d mix in a combination of a little bit of growth, select growth, along with it adding to the free cash flow at the same time. And by the time, we get to $50 or so for – from $50 WTI, may I said for sure, $50 WTI, we can accomplish all of our strategic objectives of 5% growth and really strong cash flow yield. So back when we start generating free cash flow, and we think we’re in a healthy enough financial position that we can do a combination of debt pay down and the variable dividend. Now obviously, all you want to maintain some flexibility around how much we do to each. But we think we’re in a good position on both. And so we’ll make judgment calls on how we think the appropriate mixture is, but it’s not like we have to get one done before we start together. We have to have a certain level of growth before start the picks, the variable dividend policy. We anticipate once we start generating free cash, if we see an appropriate commodity price outlook, that we will start the variable dividend policy. So Jeff, can you…
Jeff Ritenour:
Yes. That’s well said, Dave. But the short answer I would give you is we’re already there. So, we’ve got the cash balance. We feel like we have the strong balance sheet. And we’ve got a constructive view of the commodity price outlook that we highlighted in that step two on Slide 14. So obviously we’ve seen some weakness here in prices this week and that could certainly continue into next year. So we’ll be mindful of that. But as Dave said, in our minds with the combined company, we’re already in a position to where we can deliver cash returns to the shareholders via the fixed and the variable dividend along with accomplishing our debt reductio, target over time. So we feel like we’re there and in good shape.
Neal Dingmann:
Great, great details. And then just one follow-up. Dave, you also talk a lot about – I just wanting to make sure I’m clear on this as well, around the term maintenance capital. You had a lot of efficiencies, just a lot of improvements that continue to improve what that sort of level is. On a go forward, how should we – I guess, how do you define that these days? I guess, given all the improvements you have. And how should we think about – when we think about potentially maintenance capital in-depth 2021, how should – how would you like us to think about it?
Dave Hager:
Well, first off, we’re trying to use what I would consider more of a Webster’s Dictionary book, definition of maintenance capital. It’s not an optimized 2021 maintenance capital. In other words, we’re not counting on any sort of drawdown of DUC inventory in this at all. This is more of a pure how much capital do we think we need to spend, or what price WTI do we need given the capital we need to spend in order to keep production plat without any drawdown of DUCs, if we would draw down DUCs, it could be even better. And so certainly as we have accomplished better capital efficiency along with the cost synergies that we’re anticipating out of the merger that’s what’s allowing us to lower that maintenance capital significantly. I would anticipate that’s going to continue to lower through time as we continue to achieve even greater capital efficiency, more cost efficiencies. And frankly, as Brian Singer brought up earlier as our overall corporate decline rate becomes lower and outer years then the amount of capital required to maintain the production should tend lower also. So what we’re giving you is just kind of a definition of where it is just slamming together the two companies what we both defined as a maintenance capital, I think it was $950 million on the Devon side and the remainder on the WPX side. But again, the results we’re seeing today are tended to indicate that even now it’s going to be lower in 2021. But we’re not giving an exact number.
Neal Dingmann:
Very good. Thanks for the detail.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Derrick Whitfield with Stifel. Your line is now open.
Derrick Whitfield:
Thanks and good morning all.
Dave Hager:
Good morning.
Derrick Whitfield:
I appreciate your earlier comments on federal and state alignment and selection rents are certainly top of mind with investors. Regarding the 650 permits you’re expecting to have on hand at year end, did the permit comprehend any change in development approach from your current practices, including spacing, lateral length, et cetera. And as a slight build on that question, if a negative election and/or regulatory outcome were to occur, could the permit be amended at a layered time for longer laterals, if you needed to accelerate resource to conversion.
David Harris:
Derrick, this is David Harris. Thanks for your question. Yes, 650 permits that we have in hand contemplate our current development strategy around the zones that we’re the most focused on and that spacing as well as giving us some flexibility for some down spacing. To your question about the transition to 3 mile laterals. Just for your background, kind of the quick rule of thumb is, if you’ve got a drilling permit in hand and you make a change, if it doesn’t result in a different level of surface disturbance, you don’t need to get a new permit. You go through, what’s called a sundry process, which is a really quick and routine process that we have. We do these from time to time, when we tweak landing zones or bottom hole locations. And so that’s the process that we would go through as we look for opportunities to incorporate more extra long lateral development into the programs. And certainly with the – not just the results we’ve seen in Cobra but the results we’ve seen over the last couple of years across the portfolio, that’s something we’re actively looking at. We’ve drilled about 30 wells across the company that are 2.5 mile laterals or longer about half of those are in the Delaware, but importantly, we’ve drilled them in all three of our other assets as well. So we’re getting increasing revs there as Dave alluded to and increasing confidence in our ability to make that a meaningful part of the program go forward. And I think you’d expect to see probably a half dozen or so 3 mile wells in the Delaware next year, and upwards of 20%, 25% that our 2.5 mile laterals or longer. So we think this is going to be an important part of our development approach going forward. We think obviously as you saw from Cobra, a big capital efficiency pickup, as we successfully execute this.
Derrick Whitfield:
Got it. It’s fantastic detail. And then as my follow-up, really more broadly on integration efforts to date, as your teams have begun to work together, are you guys sensing any areas of potential synergy beyond what’s been disclosed?
Dave Hager:
I think the short answer is, yes. When you get good people together and they start talking about – and I think particularly on the capital side, we’re seeing that there are going to be improvements even just from pure scale on the supply chain and what the incremental scale will provide as well as just optimizing programs as well. Yes, it’s still early days, but I can tell you, there’s a lot of excitement and enthusiasm that the synergies are not only achievable, but we’re going to see more than that. So Jeff and David, you’re even closer to it to me.
Jeff Ritenour:
No, Dave. I think you hit the high points. That’s exactly right. As the teams have gotten together again, it’s early days still for sure, but already started to think about specific areas across the organizations. And I think there’s no doubt in our mind that we’ve got a lot of momentum there and should see an increase to those synergies over time in most areas.
Dave Hager:
And I’ll just say philosophically, I think one of the reasons that this – we’re going to make this work so well is, it’s our whole approach to this is a more of a merger of equals. So we’re – both sides are taking the attitude that, okay, we both done well on our own, but are there some things that we can do to create a better company that are even better than either one is individually. And it’s that open-minded attitude about really not focusing on what I do great, or my company does great. It’s more about, okay, we’ve – how can we really create something that’s better than either one of us and not worried about where it comes from, whether it’s from the WPX side or the Devon side, just how can we do better? And I think there’s a lot to be said for just that mental attitude of really trying to take the best from both sides. It’s going to allow even more synergies in a situation where you just have something that’s just much more of a takeover and you don’t learn as much from the other side as you do in this type of situation.
Derrick Whitfield:
That’s very helpful. All great update.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Jeffrey Campbell with Tuohy Brothers. Your line is now open.
Jeffrey Campbell:
Hi, Dave. I wanted to ask a more specific WPX question and then one broader question. With regard to WPX, it’s tended to invest elsewhere, then it’s Eddy County assets, whereas Devon has outstanding results there as illustrated on Slide 8. I was wondering if you see the potential to bring some capital to WPX’s Eddy acreage when the merger is complete.
Dave Hager:
Yes. We don’t have a specific plan, but I mean, they have some outstanding acres just across the state line and an area actually called the state line area as well as their – they picked up from Felix, and in which Felix, we think – and they feel very much so – to did not optimize the development plan on that. So, yes, it’s going to compete for capital very well. I did say, I think maybe on average to Devon’s a little bit better, but the legacy results we have are a pretty high bar to meet. And I don’t know that anybody that we would look at when quite the match up to that. But that doesn’t mean that WPX is really, really good. Frankly, we did quite a bit study on those before WPX acquired both those positions. So we understand those positions pretty darn well. So David, do you want to add anything?
David Harris:
No, I think that’s exactly right. Jeff, you may have been referencing some of the acreage that’s further North in Eddy County that would be kind of Northwest of Potato Basin area. Some of that acreages is operated and our understanding is, is some of its non-operated. But that would certainly be a place as we think about acreage trades and other things that we’d be looking at potential for bringing some of this extra long lateral development approach today.
Jeffrey Campbell:
Yes, that was exactly what I was thinking about.
David Harris:
Sorry, Jeff, I kind of misunderstood your question. I thought you meant…
Jeffrey Campbell:
It was good color anyway, it was fine. Then my broader question is bearing in mind, Devon’s go-forward focused on free cash flow and considering the merger. Is there any part of the portfolio that’s struggling to generate free cash now? And would this be a yardstick for not only attracting capital in the future, but maybe some portfolio management longer-term? Thanks.
Dave Hager:
Well, we have – as you think about it, we have three areas of generating really strong free cash flow right now. Pro former that will be generating really strong free cash flow at Baken, Eagle Ford and Anadarko basin. Obviously the biggest growth engine with 400,000 really high quality acres in the Delaware basin that’s going to be the biggest growth engine. And then you have the Rockies, it’s more of a longer term growth play. It’s not as much of a free cash flow play right now. And it’s a smaller asset. But it’s a very oily base. And we know there is very good potential in a, in Niobrara there across probably a couple hundred thousand acres or so. And our approach right now, we think is most appropriate, just take a very measured approach. We’ve drilled some Wells there. We’re learning a great deal from the wells we did about what worked extremely well and where our challenge is still lie. It’s probably an environment that is going to – it’s very oily up in the powder. It’s going to take probably $45, $50 oil to really compete effectively for economics, but there’s a lot of hydrocarbon there. So, it’s the one that’s not as strong and contributor currently, but I don’t feel – we’ll obviously look as a combined company. We neither side has been afraid to make the right decision at the appropriate time, but there’s nothing obvious because those companies have really high graded their portfolio a lot historically. And we like the asset base, that’s obviously the stage of each of them. And we understand that, we’ll look at it.
Jeffrey Campbell:
Great. Thanks. I appreciate the color.
Scott Coody:
Well, it looks like we’ve gotten through our question queue. We appreciate everyone’s interest in Devon today. And if you have any further questions, please do not hesitate to reach out investor relations team at any time. Have a good day. Thank you.
Operator:
This concludes today’s conference call. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Due to an audio issue on the webcast, this replay only includes the Q&A portion of the conference call. Please visit Devon’s website for a transcript of the prepared remarks from the Devon management team.
Q - Unidentified Analyst:
Hi, good morning, guys. I don’t know if you can hear me, because the voice is breaking up pretty bad on my home. I think two questions. One, can you tell us what’s the mechanism of the $1.5 billion debt reduction since that you have no maturity? Is it going to be a tender or that you’re just going to buy from the public market? And secondly, that on the special dividend and why we are not using that money for buyback, given how cheap is the valuation the stock is currently is? Thank you.
Jeff Ritenour:
Hi. Yes, this is Jeff. So as it relates to the debt repurchase, the $1.5 billion that we’ve highlighted, our expectation is to do probably a mix between open market and tender. That’s going to be dependent upon market conditions. So we’re going to evaluate the maturities across the curve and where the best value sits. And then we’ll enact that as we work our way through the rest of this year and likely into next year as well. So it’s likely going to be a mixed bag. We certainly want to see interest reduction – excuse me, interest costs come down as we’ve highlighted as our new annual run rate, but we also are going to have a focus on reducing absolute leverage. So it’s going to be a balance between the two. As it relates to the special dividend, as I mentioned in my prepared remarks, which you all probably could not hear, the feedback from our investors has been incredibly clear. They’re looking for a continuation of cash dividends from the space and specifically from Devon. And so we think with the work that we’ve done around our cost structure, lowering our break-even, we’re uniquely positioned within the sector to provide those cash returns to shareholders. So it’s really consistent with what we’re hearing from our largest shareholders. And we’re excited to move forward with not only our quarterly dividend, but the potential for variable dividends as we move through the next couple of years and evaluate market conditions.
Unidentified Analyst:
Jeff, can I just follow-up that on the debt reduction? Do you have a timeline when you think you will complete it?
Jeff Ritenour:
Yes. We’re certainly going to look to do some of that here over the next several months, again, as market conditions allow, and then likely, some of that will move our way into 2021 as well. So, again, it’s going to be a function of the market conditions and what we see with how the debt is trading. We’re also comfortable holding the cash on the balance sheet to the extent that the value proposition isn’t there. But the key point we want to make is that, that cash is earmarked for debt repayment. So we are absolutely expecting to continue to lower our absolute leverage over time.
Unidentified Analyst:
Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Arun Jayaram. Your line is open.
Arun Jayaram:
Yes, good morning. I was wondering if you could maybe elaborate on the $150 million reduction in sustaining CapEx from $1.1 billion to $950 million. Just help us think about the broad buckets that drove that pretty material decline there?
Dave Hager:
Hi, Arun, this is Dave. I think David Harris is going to have some good information around that.
David Harris:
Arun, this is David. Yes, thanks for the question. Yes, as you’ve noted, we’ve driven that 2021 maintenance capital level down about $150 million from our prior disclosure to a level that we think we can carry out in 2021 of about $950 million. In broad buckets, I would tell you that’s equally split between capital efficiencies we’re seeing, particularly in the Wolfcamp, as well as the impact of lower decline rates. I’d note that a lot of the production outperformance we saw this year has come from the good focus we’ve had on our base production levels and we continue to outperform from a base perspective. So those lower decline rates certainly give us a boost as we think about the maintenance capital we need to drive the business forward. And then the other half would be service cost savings that we believe we have line of sight to here just given the environment we’re in.
Arun Jayaram:
Got it. Got it. How much would you view that as, call it, sustainable in the future or more permanent, David?
David Harris:
Well, it’s a good question. I would tell you, as I’ve told you in the past, I mean, we always look to try to make all of this as sustainable and as permanent as we can. Certainly, here, in this part of the cycle from supply-cost perspective, we’ve seen some pretty material reductions. We believe we can capture that. We haven’t baked a lot of that, that we don’t have line of sight to and going forward. So I think it’s consistent with what we think we’re going to see here over the next 12 to 18 months.
Dave Hager:
Arun, I might just add that we’ve even seen some service cost reductions beyond what we’ve built into this at this point. So we’re not building all of the leading-edge cost reductions that we have into this $950 million.
Arun Jayaram:
Great. I guess, my follow-up was just on – I appreciate the disclosure around your federal permit backlog in both the Delaware and the PRB. My understanding is that the permits are valid for two years and you can get up to a two-year extension on those. How, call it, automatic are the – is that extension process?
Dave Hager:
Arun, you’re correct. Our federal permits have a two-year initial term and then they’re eligible for a two-year extension period. Typically, it’s a routine part of our business. We file for those extensions, say, three months out from when those permits will expire. Typically, it’s a very quick approval process. We’ve never been declined an extension. And importantly, the environmental assessments that underlie those permits are good for a period of fie years.
Arun Jayaram:
Great. And so you’re saying today that under a sustaining CapEx mode that 75% of your contemplated activity over the next four years would be kind of with permits in hand? Is that the correct understanding?
Dave Hager:
Yes. That’s absolutely correct.
Arun Jayaram:
Okay. Thanks a lot.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Douglas Leggate with Bank of America. Your line is open.
Doug Leggate:
Thanks, everyone. I don’t know what magic wand you swung there, but it seems the audio is now fine. So thank you for getting that sorted out. Hopefully, you can hear me okay. Dave, you and I have gone backwards and forwards on this model for sometime. I just want to commend you guys for introducing what I think is a really differentiated model, and I’ll be curious to see how this is received by the market. My question, however, is I wonder if you or Jeff could explain the mechanism by how you intend to share, I’ll use your words from the last call, windfall cash flows with investors.
Dave Hager:
Well, I think – thanks, Doug, and we’re very proud of the model and we think it is the right business model. And certainly, we feel like we have moved this model quickly and probably as quick as anybody in the industry. And hopefully, others continue to follow it up with actions as we have already started to do here. I think the first thing to keep in mind is that our break-even is now – that funds our maintenance capital is around $35 WTI. And then – and we actually then funded the dividend – the normal dividend plus our maintenance capital around $39 WTI. So where you start really getting into the issue is, when you start to balance our growth opportunities beyond – if we’re in an environment above $39 WTI, how do you balance that with the return of free cash flow to shareholders. And certainly, we’re going to look at the economic climate that we’re in at the time to make that call whether we would undertake select growth opportunities or whether we think it’s better to return that cash to shareholders as we move above that. As we sit here today, we’re obviously still in the middle of a global pandemic. And so even though the strip is sitting there at currently somewhere right around $45 today, the way I would describe it is there’s a big error bar on that strip. There’s a lot of uncertainty associated with that strip at this point and how sustainable that is. So we are not, at this point, prepared to say, "Okay, it’s $45 strip. Now we’re going to start going more into growth mode.” Our thought process is more we’re going to stay closer to maintenance capital or at maintenance capital and return those incremental dollars to shareholders. Now there may be an environment in the future where we don’t feel as much risk as there is on oil pricing right now, given the global pandemic that we’re still under. So there may be at some point where we do start to – as we get above $40 and towards $45, where we say we’re going to mix in a little bit of growth and with the return to value to shareholders. But we’re going to take into account all the economic conditions at the time on how to best make that judgment. So it’s not going to be an absolute formula. I think, if you – inevitably, I think, whenever you try to live by an absolute formula, you will find that the formula doesn’t work as well as you wish it had. And so it’s going to involve some level of business judgment, where our business judgment is right now that we feel it’s more appropriate to fund at maintenance capital level and return at incremental dollars to the shareholder. But that could change at some point in the future.
Doug Leggate:
I appreciate the answer, Dave. If I may offer a comment, I think, there is a subtle difference in perception between a special dividend and a variable dividend. So presumably, you’re talking about a variable dividend.
Dave Hager:
Yes, yes, we are talking about a variable dividend. And yes, I think we see there’s a subtle difference, too. And a special is one, it’s really special when you actually do it. And so that’s why we call it special and we’ve done it.
Doug Leggate:
Okay. So my follow-up is hopefully…
Dave Hager:
I’m being a little funny there for you.
Doug Leggate:
…yes. capital allocation, Dave, if you’re slowing down the growth rate up to 5%, how does that change your capital allocation across the portfolio? And I guess, it’s really a question about high-grading inventory. I’m just wondering if the incremental drilling activity sees another upward reset in productivity and capital efficiency, because you’re obviously slowing down the activity level as well? I’ll leave it there. Thank you.
Dave Hager:
Well, I think, you can look for us to continue to drive more capital efficiency into the business in general. You’re seeing how we’re continuing to drive down the drilling and completion costs and improve the capital efficiency in the Delaware Basin. You can – if you look at the stack play, we’ve done a couple of things there, where we have really redesigned our wells. And when we go back out there, that we feel that we’re going to be drilling and completing those wells for significantly less than when the last time we were out there. In addition, we did the transaction with Dow, where we brought in promoted capital, where essentially we’ll be paying one-third of our costs in a given well for 50% of our working interest. So that is certainly going to drive capital efficiency. Eagle Ford, we work very closely with BP to drive the efficiency there and really the economics on the remaining development inventory, as well as the redevelopment opportunities we’re seeing are very capital efficient. And finally, we’re learning an awfully lot about the Powder River Basin, particularly in the Niobrara. And we have really just been in appraisal mode up there so far. So as we go into full development in the Powder River Basin, you will see those well costs potentially move down dramatically as well. So absolutely, we’ll be – in a sense, we’ll be high grading by drilling the best opportunities. But all of these opportunities are going to continue to improve because of the measures that we have been executing on internally.
Doug Leggate:
I appreciate and thank, guys. Congrats, again. Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Neal Dingmann with Truist Securities. Your line is open.
Neal Dingmann:
Good morning, Dave, and I’ll – maybe you guys talked a lot about these cash dividends. I mean, my question is around sort of the debt and production growth levels. So I just want to make sure clear. Is there a certain level you want to get debt down to and sort of a certain minimum level of production growth you would like before sort of considering these more frequent variable dividends, or how should we think about that?
Dave Hager:
Well, I tried to say – first, on the debt, I mean, our target in mid-cycle pricing is get the debt the – EBITDAR down around 1.0 or less. Now we’re not quite there yet and we’re probably going to need a little bit better pricing to do it. On the variable dividend, so I tried to lay out that it’s going to depend somewhat on our perception of the economic outlook as to how much we want and our confidence in forward pricing as to how much we would just return cash to shareholders versus invest in a limited amount of growth opportunities up to 5%. So – and I tried to highlight that we’re going to assess that at the time. Right now, we’re not particularly confident in the economic outlook on prices. It may prove better, but we’re still in the middle of a pandemic, so there’s a lot of uncertainty around it. So we’d be leaning more towards the cash return side of it right now, so.
Jeff Ritenour:
Neal, this is Jeff. But just one thing I would add is a distinction for Devon versus some of our peers is, we have the cash on hand to accomplish our debt objectives, our target debt levels. So any free cash flow that we generate can then go back to shareholders, as Dave articulated. A lot of other folks in the sector are going to have to generate free cash flow and then try to accomplish their lower leverage objectives. But we’re in a unique position with the cash that we have on hand. We can take care of that and then generate free cash flow with the lower break-evens that we’ve created and returned that to shareholders.
Neal Dingmann:
Great clarification. The cash is certainly obvious for you all. It gives you a lot of options. And then just one follow-up. On – Dave, you mentioned with the strip, it doesn’t cause you to think about boosting activity and sort of with this whole – ties in with this plan you’ve been talking about. But I’m just thinking when – if the strip does get up to a certain point where you have more confidence behind that, would the focus essentially still initially just be Delaware, or would you continue – would you start looking more at the Eagle Ford, Powder, Anadarko, et cetera?
David Harris:
Neal, this is David Harris. I think as we move into 2021, I think you will continue to see us have a capital program with a pretty heavy Delaware emphasis. But I do think you’ll see us bring back some activity across all three of those areas and take advantage of the diversity in the portfolio and, as Dave alluded to, the high-quality opportunity set we have across those areas as well.
Neal Dingmann:
Great details. Thanks, guys.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Jeanine Wai. Your line is open.
Jeanine Wai:
Hi, good morning, everyone. I hope you can hear me.
Dave Hager:
Yes. We hear you fine. Hope you can hear us now.
Jeanine Wai:
Okay. We got you. Thank you. So I guess, my first question is on the reinvestment framework. And apologies if you’ve addressed this in your prepared remarks. But the 70% to 80% target for CapEx to cash flow, you mentioned this is at a mid-cycle price. What mid-cycle price are you using? And could you provide any color on the price band or the sensitivities that you looked at around various reinvestment and payout ratios?
Jeff Ritenour:
Hey, Jeanine, this is Jeff. Yes, so when we talk about mid-cycle pricing, we generally talked about $50 oil. So that reinvestment ratio that we talked about the 70% to 80%, it obviously really kicks in when you get to those sorts of levels. Prior to that, again, as Dave has articulated, we’re going to be focused on the maintenance capital and generating free cash flow and returning that to shareholders. But once you get to those higher levels of WTI pricing, given our low break-evens, we do think that it makes sense to limit our reinvestment to that 70% to 80% kind of level. And effectively, we can accomplish all of our objectives of the 5% growth, our quarterly dividend and generating free cash flow when you get to that kind of mid-cycle type pricing.
Jeanine Wai:
Okay, great. Thank you for that clarification. My follow-up is just moving to the Delaware and well productivity, maybe following up on Arun’s question on the federal. In maintenance mode, it looks like you’ve mitigated a significant amount of risk in the Delaware through a lot of good forward permitting. But can you talk about in terms of the well productivity, how does this vary between your federal and non-federal acreage? Thank you.
David Harris:
Jeanine, it’s David. As we’ve said before, although about 55% of our federal – our acreage in the Delaware is federal. Certainly, as you think about the core in Lea and Eddy County, that’s where some of our highest return opportunities are. And so that’s why we wanted to highlight, from a permitting standpoint, of those 400 or so permits that we expect to have by the fall in the Delaware, about half of those include our drilling program for the next two years. So they’re specific to those programs and what we would expect to see. And so, I would expect that you’ll continue to see us lean on that permit inventory, drill those wells and then supplement it with state wells where we can and need to.
Jeanine Wai:
Okay. Thank you very much.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Matt Portillo with TPH. Your line is open.
Matthew Portillo:
Good morning, all.
Dave Hager:
Good morning, Matt.
Matthew Portillo:
Two asset-specific questions. Just curious as you look out into 2021, with the improvement in the gas forward curve, curious how you’re thinking about capital allocation to the stack, specifically with the carrier that you have with the Dow JV?
David Harris:
Matt, it’s David. We’re – we were scheduled to begin that activity this year. Obviously, with what we’ve seen from a pandemic and a commodity price standpoint, we’ve deferred that activity. We’re currently working with our partner and would contemplate restarting that activity in 2021. I think that our best guess based on those discussions and sort of how we would see that plan laying out is probably something like a two-rig program in 2021 potentially to prosecute the initial stages of the Dow partnership.
Matthew Portillo:
Perfect. And then just a follow-up question. Your partner in the Eagle Ford laid out a pretty significant strategy shift over the next 10 years. And I was just curious how you guys are thinking about capital allocation to the Eagle Ford with that as the backdrop?
Dave Hager:
Well, we work very closely with BP on the capital allocation there. And so far, we’ve remained aligned. I will say, I think, probably better to hear this from BP, but I think, overall, they’re extremely happy with that asset and feel that’s one of the best assets they’ve picked up and, if not the best, they picked up in the BHP transaction. So I would think that even though they’re having a strategy shift, I would suspect that this is one that’s going to continue to be highlighted within their portfolio. So far, we have not seen any significant alignment issues with them around that. Obviously, if there’s some point they don’t consider that asset to be very valuable in their portfolio, we’d love to talk to them about that as well. But right now, I can tell you we remain very aligned.
Matthew Portillo:
Thank you very much.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Scott Hanold. Your line is open.
Scott Hanold:
Yes, thanks. Question on the 2021 plan in the DUCs. And so how should we think about that? I mean, do you all expect to work through the DUCs in 2021? Or what are those decision points?
Dave Hager:
Well, we’re still finalizing our 2021 capital allocation. So it’d be a little premature to say how much. I do know that we’d have 22 DUCs down in the Eagle Ford that we’ve – that have been there that we DUCed in the second quarter. And so those are definitely going to be drawn down in early 2021, which will give us a really good start to 2021 production. I think beyond that, the level at which we may consider drawing down that inventory, we’re going to have to – we’re working on that right now and deciding and whether how much we may consider doing that. For the most part, I think, you would consider that to just be normal working level of DUCs that you would – always going to have some inventory, but there probably are a few that we could draw down if it seems appropriate.
Scott Hanold:
Right. So just to clarify. Of the – I think, it was roughly 100 DUCs. Some of that, you would include normal work in inventory, is that right?
Dave Hager:
That’s right. That’s right.
Scott Hanold:
Yes, yes. Okay. Fair enough. And then with regards to the special dividend – and correct me if I’m wrong. The way you guys laid it out, it doesn’t sound like it’s going to be highly consistent going forward once you start to initiate it and that it could be off and on, I guess, depending on your view of the commodity and the macro and some other things. Is that a fair statement? Or are you guys designing this to be something shareholders can understand we’re going to get something this quarter, we don’t know what it is, but you’re going to have some sort of a plan for that?
Dave Hager:
Well, make no mistake that we are very dedicated to the cash return model to shareholders. And I feel that, frankly, we’re the first ones to actually take action with a special or variable dividend. There are probably a couple of different cases where you can do this and we use the words synonymously, frankly. One is in this case, where we have some extra cash we’re anticipating because of the Barnett Shale. The other is that, I believe, probably Pioneer talked about this morning and certainly, we’re going to be doing the same thing, is as we generate excess cash flow from our ongoing business, that we will be returning that to shareholders as well. Now are we going to be absolutely formulaic around that approach and say we’re going to do so much every quarter? No. We’re not saying that. But when we are confident that we have generated excess cash flow in the right business environment beyond what we need as a company and, again, we’re limiting our growth to 5%, then you can look for us to return that cash to our shareholders. We’re just not being so specific as to say exactly how it might be. Now, Jeff, I know may have a few additional comments or some thoughts that he has had around this as well, so.
Jeff Ritenour:
Yes. Scott, no, I think, Dave said it well. The one thing I would add is, obviously, our quarterly – our traditional quarterly dividend is going to return cash to shareholders throughout the year. And then as Dave articulated, depending on market conditions, we’ll evaluate what makes sense at the time as it relates to the variable dividend. But our expectation is, again, I would just point you to our break-even levels and you all can use whatever price deck you prefer. But as we’ve articulated, with the break-even that we have in our maintenance capital level, we should be generating free cash flow into the foreseeable future. And our game plan is to return that to shareholders via the dividend, both dividends, the quarterly traditional dividend and the special. As it relates to timing, obviously, we’ll debate that with our Board. Our Board meets multiple times throughout the year, at least, quarterly and evaluate what makes sense based on the market conditions and the other objectives we’re trying to achieve at the time.
Dave Hager:
And we – you might look at Slide 13 in our operations report, too, that also shows what amounts of free cash flow you – we could yield at maintenance capital at various WTI prices. So just as Jeff said, we anticipate that there is going to be significant free cash flow and that we would look to return that to shareholders.
Scott Hanold:
Understood. Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Nitin Kumar with Wells Fargo. Your line is open.
Nitin Kumar:
Good morning, gentlemen, and thanks for taking my questions. I guess, a lot of ground has been covered on this cash return side. You did mention in your slides that the buyback is still a component of – the share buyback is a component of your cash return. Can you help us understand the prioritization of how you are looking at the different avenues for shareholder return?
Jeff Ritenour:
Yes, Nitin, this is Jeff. You’re right. Certainly, in the past, we’ve utilized the share buyback approach as a way to return cash to shareholders as well. As I said, and I appreciate you didn’t hear them, given our audio difficulties. But in our prepared remarks, the feedback that we’ve got from shareholders has been pretty loud and clear and consistent around cash returns and cash dividends. And so going forward, our absolute expectation is to return the cash versus – excuse me, to return cash via the dividend versus the stock buyback.
Nitin Kumar:
Great. That’s helpful. And then this is going to be for you as well, Jeff. But on Slide 12, you’ve talked about the financing cost reductions of $75 million, but you also mentioned about $125 million in reductions from LOE and GP&T. Granted there may be many moving parts here. But just could you help us understand what are the targets? And how are you improving your LOE? And then particularly, I’m interested in how you’re improving your GP&T going forward?
Jeff Ritenour:
Yes. So – and I’m happy to answer that. The $125 million of LOE and GP&T cost reduction that we highlighted, about $65 million of that is an MVC that we have in Oklahoma and our stack asset…
Dave Hager:
Volume commitment.
Jeff Ritenour:
…sorry, minimum volume commitment that we have in Oklahoma is rolling off in 2021. So that’s about half of that $125 million. And then beyond that, frankly, we’re seeing lower costs in all of our categories. David mentioned some of this earlier, he can add more detail. But whether it be chemicals, compression, our teams have done a great job of – as we’ve changed our level of activity and our cadence of work to really work hard to lower the cost. Some of that, of course, is the benefit of the deflation that we’ve seen here lately. But what we’re really seeing from the teams is an ability to lock some of that in and, again, we believe keep those lower cost sustainable into the future. I’ll let David add any color that he may have.
David Harris:
Yes. Jeff, I think, you covered it well. I think what I would tell you is, from an operating perspective on the LOE side, we always start with trying to reduce downtime as best we can. We’ve got our decision support centers that feed us data on our operations on a real-time basis. And so not only are we able to respond more quickly to downtime events, in many cases, we’re able to predict them and get in front of them. And so that’s keeping our operations up and running, as always, the first order of business. It varies a little bit by area how we attack the line items just given the nature of the different assets. But Jeff, I think, covered it well. Certainly, compression costs, chemical costs across both the Anadarko and the Eagle Ford are things that we’re focused on pretty heavily. In the Rockies, we’re doing – we’re piloting some additional technology opportunities to automate the way we work. So far, those have allowed us to cut our downtime in half year-over-year, while improving those costs and our environmental performance. And so there, we believe we’ve got a stretch target there to get our recurring LOE in the Rockies down from something on the order of $6.50 down to the mid-4s. So we believe there’s a step change there that we can continue to get. And then in the Delaware, obviously, those types of things as well, but we’ve got a lot of important infrastructure there from both a water standpoint and otherwise that we’re leveraging to manage our costs and keep those down.
Nitin Kumar:
Excellent. Thank you so much.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Brian Singer. Your line is open.
Brian Singer:
Thank you. Good morning.
Dave Hager:
Good morning, Brian.
Brian Singer:
I wanted to follow-up on that growth outlook, and it’s really just to ask if they were an above mid-cycle scenario, i.e., price is above $50, is the 5% still the max growth outlook? So any price, 5% would be the max you would consider.
Dave Hager:
Yes.
Brian Singer:
And then as you think today…
Dave Hager:
Yes.
Brian Singer:
Okay. And then I guess, as you think about the impact of having a growth rate that’s maybe a little slower than it was at sometime, does that impact or maybe even limit the consideration that you – that Devon would have to either participate in or be a part of M&A and consolidation?
Dave Hager:
Well, I’d say, M&A consolidation is something that we obviously recognize there is – there can be benefits out there. There’s too much overhead sitting in the entire E&P system. And to the extent that which there can be some consolidation and eliminate some of that overhead and also, in many cases, capture operational synergies that may exist between various companies, there could be some benefit there. So I don’t really see that the limitation of the growth rate has a significant impact one way or the other. I think, frankly, many of the companies are pivoting to the same model that we are. I think we’re just a little more advanced with the implementation of this model than they are. So I think it’s – I think this is a strategy that can make sense with acquisitions if there could be something that would be appropriate. And just on the – I gave the very quick answer, one-word answer, yes, on limited to 5% growth rate. I mean, that is absolutely the answer. The rationale behind that, I think, we all understand is that, why does it – it just doesn’t make any sense for our industry to grow at a much higher rate than the demand for the product is, and we count on OPEC to cut supplies to bail us out on prices. And so I think, hopefully, everyone is learning their lesson on that. And I think – and frankly, I think, the industry is learning their lesson on that. So that’s why it’s just so straightforward for us to answer it the way I did.
Brian Singer:
Fair enough. And then my follow-up is with regards to base decline rates. Assuming you’re at that 5% or lower growth level, how do you see the evolution of your corporate base decline rate? And can you talk about where you’ve been most effective in managing that base decline here more recently?
David Harris:
Brian, it’s David. As we’ve talked about previously, as we came into 2020, our decline rate was probably in the high-30s percent on oil and the low-30% on a BOE basis. I think, as we roll forward a year, we would expect that, that oil decline rate moves to the low-30s and on a BOE basis into the mid-20s or so. And then really, I would say from a base production standpoint, it’s become a big emphasis for us across all of our asset areas. I think all of our teams have done an excellent job arresting base declines and accretively deploying workover capital and some creative solutions to try to shallow these decline rates out as much as we can. And certainly, as we move into this cash return model with a more moderate growth rate, that’s an extremely important part of the business that maybe people took for granted in times past. But I can tell you, our teams certainly don’t.
Brian Singer:
Great. Thank you.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] Your next question comes from Brian Downey with Citigroup. Your line is open.
Brian Downey:
Good morning, and thanks for taking my questions. From the prepared remarks on Slide 9, you’re understandably still restricting flowback on newer wells due to market conditions. I’m curious if that experience has changed how you’re thinking about early time initial flowback or pressure management on a go-forward basis, if there are any surprise learnings throughout that whole process during the quarter?
David Harris:
Hey, Brian, it’s David. It’s good to talk to you again. No, I wouldn’t say that there has been any surprises or any differences in terms of how we would approach that. Certainly, as we think about flowback strategy, that’s an important part of how we develop our asset. And so from time to time, we do experiment with that a bit. Certainly, as we’re doing some appraisal work, we’ll have projects where we’re restricting flowback for interference testing and the like, but no big or shattering changes or revelations that you should expect in terms of how we conduct the business.
Brian Downey:
Okay. So sort of back to normal in the second-half of the year, we should anticipate on the completions there?
David Harris:
Yes. I think that’s right.
Brian Downey:
Okay, great. I appreciate.
Scott Coody:
All right. It looks like we’re at the top of the hour, and I think we’ve got through all the questions. We appreciate everyone’s interest in Devon today. And once again, given some of the audio issues we’ve had, we’ll send out the prepared remarks to our audience, and then we’ll also post them on the website for everyone’s convenience for viewing. If you have any other further questions as well, please don’t hesitate to reach out to the Investor Relations team at any time. Thank you, and have a good day.
Operator:
This concludes today’s conference call. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Welcome to Devon Energy's First Quarter 2020 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. This call is being recorded. I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Scott Coody, Vice President of Investor Relations. Sir, you may begin.
Scott Coody:
Good morning and thank you to everyone for joining us on the call today. Last night, we issued an earnings release and presentation that covers our results for the quarter and updated outlook for the year. Throughout the call today, we will make references to our first quarter earnings presentation to support our prepared remarks, and these slides can be found on our website at devonenergy.com. Also joining me on the call today are Dave Hager, our President and CEO; David Harris, our Executive Vice President of Exploration and Production; Jeff Ritenour, our Chief Financial Officer; and a few other members of our senior management team. Comments on the call today will include plans, forecasts and estimates that are forward-looking statements under US Securities law. These comments are subject to assumptions, risks and uncertainties that could cause our actual results to differ from our forward-looking statements. Please take note of the cautionary language and the risk factors provided in our SEC filings and earnings materials. With that, I’ll turn the call over to Dave.
Dave Hager:
Thank you, Scott, and good morning. It is my sincerest hope that everyone listening today is staying safe and in good health. As you all know, since our last earnings call, it's been an extraordinary time in the energy markets with an unprecedented demand shock related to COVID-19 resulting in a rapid and historic decline in oil pricing. While no one could have accurately predicted timing or wide range the impact of this pandemic to the global economy or our industry, I am confident that Devon has entered this period of volatility with an extremely firm foundation. Our combination of strong liquidity, low financial leverage, high-graded portfolio, and top-tier operating capabilities leave us well positioned to effectively navigate through these challenging times. Adding to these competitive advantages is our talented team here at Devon. And I want to take a moment to recognize all of our employees for their hard work and dedication during this period of dislocation due to COVID-19. Their focus on safely executing our business plan and protecting shareholder value during this unprecedented time led to another quarter of outstanding operational results. The results for the first quarter were highlighted by capital expenditures coming in 12% below midpoint expectations, higher oil production than our previous guidance, our cost savings initiatives continue to trend ahead of plan, and we generated free cash flow in the quarter. All-in-all, we are executing at a very high level, and I want to thank our employees for their commitment to excellence. The rest of my prepared remarks today will cover a handful of key messages that provide insight into our approach to managing the business through these turbulent times. Then I'll turn the call over to Q&A where we'll answer as of your questions as possible. The first key message I want to convey today is that we have the financial strength to withstand an extended downturn. As you can see on slide three of our earnings presentation, Devon had $4.7 billion of liquidity, consisting of $1.7 billion of cash and $3 billion of undrawn capacity on our credit facility at the end of the quarter. In addition to our substantial cash balances, Devon's liquidity is further enhanced by our senior unsecured credit facility, which is not mature until the end of 2024. This facility contains only one material financial covenant, a debt-to-capitalization ratio below 65%. And at quarter end, this ratio was less than 20%. The facility is fully committed to us, and we are not subject to semi-annual redeterminations. And lastly, a key event that will be additive to our liquidity over the remainder of 2020 is our recently amended agreement to sell the Barnett Shale. Under the revised terms, we agreed to sell our Barnett Shale assets for up to $830 million of total proceeds, consisting of $570 million in cash at closing and contingent payments of up to $260 million. This agreement includes this $170 million deposit, which we received in April, and we are on track to close the transaction by year-end. Also adding to Devon's financial margin of safety is our low average with no outstanding debt obligations until the end of 2025. On the right-hand side of slide three, you can see that our near-term debt maturity runway is best-in-class within our peer group, with nearly 6 years of time until our first tranche of debt comes due. This is a critical competitive advantage in this period of extreme commodity price volatility. The second key message I want everyone to understand is that Devon is committed to living within cash flow. Our top priority in this environment is to protect our financial strength. And to do that, we have taken decisive actions to protect our revenue and align our business with industry conditions by aggressively reducing capital and operating costs. Looking specifically at revenue, Devon's disciplined hedging program has protected approximately 90% of our expected oil production for the remainder of 2020 at an average WTI floor price of $42 per barrel. We have also taken steps to protect about half of our expected oil volumes for the first half of 2021 at prices that are nearly $40 per barrel. Additionally, to further protect against the risk of widening in-basin differentials, we've utilized regional basis swaps to lock in pricing for the vast majority of our Eagle Ford and Delaware Basin oil volumes for the remainder of the year. In aggregate, the estimated market value of our go-forward derivative position is roughly $750 million, a substantial contributor to our cash flow in 2020. On the cost front, the most significant changes we have made to date are related to the reduction of our capital activity levels. With our revised capital plan, we have limited our spending outlook to $1 billion in 2020 and a decline of 45% compared our original budget. As outlined on slide seven, we have elected to continue to invest and preserve operational continuity in the Delaware Basin to generate the necessary cash flow to effectively operate our business while suspending all capital activity in the Anadarko, Eagle Ford, and Powder River plays until market conditions improve. While we believe this is a prudent program for the current environment, given the uncertainty regarding the depth and duration of this pricing downturn, I do want to highlight that we have tremendous flexibility with our go-forward capital plans. We have minimal long-term contract commitments. Our opportunity set consists of only short-cycle onshore projects, and we have no significant lease expiration issues. With these characteristics, we are fully capable and willing to swiftly adjust activity levels as market conditions evolve. In addition to the capital reductions, we are also improving our cash flow by targeting approximately $250 million in cash cost reduction by year end. This cost reduction plan includes a range of actions to lower field level operating expenses and to continue to optimize the organization's overhead. This includes an expected 40% reduction in cash compensation for our executive management team year-over-year. I want to reinforce that while we have a clear line of sight on this $250 million of cost savings, we are not done. There are several initiatives underway that will further trim our cost structure, and I expect to provide updates on these initiatives in future calls. To summarize on slide 12, you can see the cash flow impact as swift and decisive changes we have made year-to-date. Our hedging program and intense focus on costs have positioned us to fully fund our capital requirements and dividend while generating net cash inflows at a price deck of $20 WTI for the remainder of the year. The next topic I want to touch on is our plan to dynamically manage production as storage levels become constrained and regional pricing weakens. With today's challenging -- challenged commodity price backdrop, we are being mindful not to accelerate valuable production into these weak markets. To combat these conditions, our first course of action is to reduce our current completion activity levels by approximately 65% to the first quarter. This decision to limit the wells we bring online will position us with a DUC backlog of nearly 100 wells company-wide at year-end. And for those wells that we have brought online recently, we restricted the full raise to ensure that we do not deliver flush production into these tough markets. Next, with regards to our base production profile, the operating teams have performed a detailed analysis to identify uneconomic wells at various price levels across our portfolio. The decision to shut in or curtail production from existing wells is generally made when the variable cost to operate the well exceeds its expected revenue. While the primary decision point, other factors may influence this decision as well, such as leasehold considerations, mechanical risks and involuntary third-party constraints. We plan to proceed curtailment decisions on a month-to-month basis. But for the second quarter, we expect to defer roughly 10,000 barrels per day of oil across our portfolio. Of this amount, only 20% is driven by the shut-in of production. The vast majority of curtailments were related to the restricted flow back of higher rate wells and the deferral of bringing a few new wells online in the second quarter. The minimal shut-in activity reflects the quality of our assets and the good work our team has done to place volumes. First, we have no pricing exposure to West Texas light, Clearbrook, the North Slope, Canadian Bitumen or many other well know pricing hubs that have recently experienced exceptionally weak prices. Furthermore, in key plays like the Eagle Ford and Powder River Basin, we correctly anticipated that there would be weak regional pricing, and our marketing team took early and decisive action to lock in our revenue at pricing above variable costs in May and June. Taking all these factors together, our production operations are well positioned to be resilient in the face of these challenging conditions. Looking ahead, the next key message I want to emphasize is our ability to capitalize on the recovery when industry conditions normalize. The decision to exit our heavy oil position in Canada, sell the Barnett shale and monetize our controlling stake in Enlink Midstream have helped set the foundation for the advantage position we operate from today. These bold moves have dramatically improved our financial strength, asset quality and competitive position on the marginal cost curve. Devon's go-forward portfolio now consists of only large contiguous stack pay acreage positions and the best parts of the best plays in the US. Importantly, within this portfolio, Devon has established a track record of operational excellence that is supported by consistent capital efficiency gains. A great example of this efficiency is on slide 17, which highlights our Wolfcamp program, where the majority of our capital is invested in 2020. Our drilled and completion costs in the first quarter improved by 42% to $705 per foot. To better appreciate the success, I encourage everyone to compare this top-tier result to our peers in the Delaware Basin. These Wolfcamp improvements are underpinned by steadily improving cycle times and optimized completion designs. We have expectations for these efficiencies to continue throughout the remainder of 2020 and into 2021. These efficiency gains have allowed us to preserve operational continuity even as we limit capital investment. As you can see on slide 18, assuming no curtailment beyond the middle part of the year, we expect our oil production profile to be nearly flat compared to the average of 2019, and we are in a good position to stabilize production in 2021. This production resiliency is a testament to the quality of our go-forward asset base and showcases the efficiencies that are driving our capital requirements lower. Currently, we are estimating that maintenance capital, which is the amount of investment required to keep our production flat will be around $1.25 billion, a 10% improvement from a year ago. With additional savings we expect from ongoing improvement in operations as well as shower based declines, we are projecting our maintenance capital to improve around $1.1 billion by 2021. Importantly, this improvement in maintenance capital does not assume a drawdown of our DUC inventory, which we expect to be around 100 wells by year-end. With this low maintenance capital, we are able to quickly and efficiently stem declines and we are positioned to maintain our 2020 extra rate oil production into 2021, and should market conditions incentivize us to invest at maintenance capital levels. And my final key message for today is that Devon has the right business model to maximize value for our shareholders over the long-term. Admittedly, it is challenging not to get caught up in a present with today's extreme bear market conditions. But we know from experience that today's oversupply will ultimately be absorbed. When industry conditions normalize, it is our strong belief that industry’s historic approach of creating value by prioritizing production or NAV growth will not be acceptable to investors. It is not a viable strategy to reinvest all cash flow, have high leverage and count on OPEC curtailments to be successful. To win in the next phase of the energy cycle, we are convinced that a more balanced operating model that prioritizes additional upfront cash returns for shareholders is required. With this financially-driven model, you must moderate capital investment to deliver free cash flow yields that compete for investment with other sectors in the broader markets, have the ability to deliver margin expansion through operational scale and a leaner corporate structure, prioritize returning more cash directly to shareholders in the form of dividends or supplemental distributions in time of windfall pricing, and a successful E&P company going forward must maintain extremely low levels of leverage and not be dependent on capital markets for liquidity or funding. This critical shift in philosophy will result in a much greater margin of safety, which we all believe is needed. This balanced operating model is not new to Devon and we have been an industry leader in this movement. Since 2018, we have deployed nearly 70% of our cash inflows towards shareholder-friendly actions, such as debt reduction, dividends, and buybacks. And when industry conditions normalize, Devon is one of the very few E&P companies that will have the capabilities to deliver on this progressive cash return business model. And with that, I'll turn the call back over to Scott for Q&A.
Scott Coody:
Thanks, Dave. We'll now open the call to Q&A. Please limit yourself to one question and a follow-up. This allows us to get to more of your questions on the call today. With that, operator, we’ll take our first question.
Operator:
Your first question from the line of Arun Jayaram with JPMorgan.
Arun Jayaram:
Good morning Dave.
Dave Hager:
Good morning Arun.
Arun Jayaram:
I hope you had a good Cinco de Mayo, but a few quick questions for you. One, I was wondering if you could provide a little bit more details on your leading-edge Delaware Basin well costs, which is cited at being in the low 700s. This looks to be a couple of hundred dollars per foot lower than some of the guides we've seen from -- some of your Permian peers. Can you talk about what is driving this lower cost figure relative to peers? Is this well designed or other factors, and I wanted to see if you could provide some details on -- if you included facilities spend, what would that translate to on a dollar per foot basis in the Delaware?
Dave Hager:
Absolutely Arun. I'm going to turn the call over to David Harris, our Executive Vice President of E&P, I think has a lot of details around that question. But I can tell you, it's real as a result of outstanding work that is being done by our team here and we're not done. So, with that, I'll turn it over to David.
David Harris:
Good morning Arun, and thanks for the question. Yes, we appreciate that this is a really outstanding result. It's the culmination of a lot of hard work over the last several years across our teams, across disciplines. But as Dave said, we're not done. And so, that $705 a foot is the average cost performance that we saw in Q1. I think you're probably right to characterize it as leading edge, but one of the things that we've really focused on internally, there's really a relentless drive for continuous improvement. And so, we continue to try to turn that leading-edge performance into our P50 performance. So, one of the things I'd encourage you to look at, not just from a cost perspective, we also disclose our drilling and completion per foot per day metrics to try to give you a sense on a normalized for cost basis what the performance looks like, and so that's really the way that we try to measure ourselves, that's what we control. We don't think just presenting cost numbers, that may have some deflation in them. It is the right way to really hold yourself accountable and measure step change in performance. Certainly, there's a little bit of that in ours, but our objective is to turn all those into structural change and drive those into the plan going forward, which I think is a big part of what you're seeing in terms of the step change in maintenance capital levels and things like that. And so, not just as that Wolfcamp-only performance, really competitive -- exceeding, as you said by a couple of hundred million dollars, other peers in Delaware, if you look at the performance, if you pull in our performance in all zones, not just the Wolfcamp and the Delaware in the first quarter, that number is actually about $600 a foot. So, this isn't a function of just picking a couple of data points and trying to make to make it look good. This is the continued quarter-over-quarter improvement that you are seeing the teams really do a great job at driving. To your question about the facility side, if you fully burden these pads with facilities expense, it probably pushes that average up to about $100 a foot or $100 a foot on top of what we've disclosed there, but even with that, still well south of where we believe our peers are even without facilities in their numbers.
Arun Jayaram:
Great. Thanks. And just my follow-up is on the $1.1 billion of sustaining capital that you guys disclosed for 2021. I was wondering if you could help us on what type of mix that would contemplate perhaps relative to 2020? And what price signal would you need to restart completion activity for DUCs or to add incremental rig lines throughout your asset base?
A – David Hager:
Arun, that's going to be roughly 70% Delaware-type activity. We're not giving firm guidance on everything on 2021. But directionally, you can think of the activity in that level. You can see from our guide that we have there that we're really proud of how we've driven down the maintenance capital significantly. That would imply that we could have a cash flow breakeven in 2021 with somewhere around $40 WTI, which is -- you just do the math, it's probably a 20% improvement of where we have been just in the past year or so. We are going to continue to complete wells, but at a much slower pace here for the remainder of second quarter and the third quarter. We plan to start ramping back up with completions in the fourth quarter and then maintain more of a steady phase through 2021 if something around the strip prices were to play out. David, I don't know if you have any more details on that that you'd like to hit.
David Harris:
No, I think you've said it well in terms of what the forward profile would look like around those kinds of assumptions. Obviously, a lot of volatility in the market, but I think that's indicative of what we believe the business can deliver.
Arun Jayaram:
Great. Thanks a lot.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Doug Leggate with Bank of America.
Doug Leggate:
Thank you and good morning everybody, and I hope everybody is doing well out there. Dave, you've pretty set the bar pretty high, we think, this morning. I want to ask you a couple of things. One, about your comments on the business model. And two, to follow-up on the maintenance capital issue. So if I may, I'll do them back-to-back. The first one is the business model, you made a number of comments there about what you need to do to compete coming out the other side of this. So, I just wanted to poke a little bit on that. And explore things like how do you set -- how do you design that? Is that a reinvestment rate model? Is that a variable distribution model? How do you think about the ideal growth rate? There's a lot of things go into that, and I'm just wondering, when we come, assuming we come out the other side of this, there is the potential to be of a very competitive investment case that grows at a moderate pace and really builds on that maintenance capital that you talked about with a lot of free cash flow. I just want to know how you think about that. My follow-up is on the maintenance capital, and it really gets to the issue of valuation because I think what you've disclosed recently and again last night, should allow the market to at least put a free cash flow analysis around your business. My question is, how sustainable is that $1.1 billion, and what is the underlying decline rate that goes along with that? So, the first one in the business model, and the second one, the sustainability of the maintenance capital. And I appreciate you taking my questions.
Dave Hager:
Yes. Thanks, Doug. First, on the business model, we feel that the industry has been too focused on growth and not enough on returning value to shareholders, and we think it takes a combination of higher free cash flow yield, returning cash to shareholders in a consistent manner, as well as a more moderate growth rate that would go along with that. And then third, low financial leverage, and when I talk about low financial leverage, I'm talking about net debt-to-EBITDA of one or less. And I think if this has taught us anything that we've had three downturns in the past 11 years. And you can say they're all unrelated going back to 2008 or the 2014, 2015, 2016 time frame and now these, but you may call them unrelated, but there's been three regardless of how you look at it. And so I think that it is absolutely important to have financial strength coming into these so that you can emerge as a strong company. And that's the attitude that we had coming into this and is paying off extremely well. I think that the invest is just so important that the investors need to be paid along the way. And there has to be a cash return element to the strategy that competes with other industries. Now, the form of which that cash return takes place, we're flexible on. It could be a combination of fixed and variable dividend. It could be one-time dividends. It could be share repurchases. There's different ways to do that, and we're open-minded on how that might take place. But we think that a cash return is just so much more important, given the volatility in our industry, we can't expect investors to be active in this industry if they aren't getting returned to cash along the way. So that's kind of the fundamental thinking of how we are doing it. And to make that model successful, you have to continuously drive down the breakeven costs associated with your company. And that's what we're doing, and that's really leads to your second question, which is the driving down of the maintenance capital from $1.4 billion to $1.1 billion. It's not only sustainable, but it's going to continue to go lower, because we're going to, through time, be shallowing out the decline curve. We also be a relentless focus on cost reduction. Whether the cost reduction comes on the capital side capital side or the expense side of the equation, we're going to be driving those costs down and as we drive those down, that obviously is going to help out with the maintenance capital investment that's required. So Jeff or David, I don't know if you have any additional comments that -- don't have? But David?
David Harris:
Good morning, Doug. To your specific question around the decline rate, probably premature to give you a real specific number just given the number of potential moving parts here -- as we go throughout the year, but the level set you. You know, as we headed into 2020, we were looking at a first year oil decline rate probably in high 30s. And so certainly would be my expectation as we move to this more moderate spend and activity level, that you absolutely ought to see that decline rate trend into the low 30s here over the next year or so.
Doug Leggate:
That's a very thorough answer guidance. Dave, just one quick follow-up. What do you think that organic mid-cycle or recovery scenario growth rate looks like? Oil production? Where -- are we talking 2%, 3%? 9%, 10%? Where do you see that mid-cycle…
Dave Hager:
Somewhere probably mid-single digits, around 5% plus or minus.
Doug Leggate:
You gave us a lot to play with here. Thanks a lot guys. Appreciate taking my questions.
Dave Hager:
Thanks.
Operator:
Your next question on line of Neal Dingmann with SunTrust.
Neal Dingmann:
Good morning, all. My first question, Dave, just really centers on your shut-ins curtailment suspension. Just wondering, is the decision -- when you decide to bring these back? Is that just simply based on prices versus cash cost? And if so, I'm just wondering, are the thresholds when you sort of look at each of these three, I mean, looking at I know you've just sort of shut in a very minimal amount and with more curtailment and a bit of suspended D&C. I'm just wondering, when you bring these back, are these the threshold for each of these about the same?
David Harris:
Good morning, Neal. This is David Harris. You know from the standpoint of our curtailments, I'd remind you that of the approximately 10,000 barrels of oil a day, we currently expect to have curtailed about -- about 20% of that would be actual shut-ins and about 80% would be restricting flow rates and pushing IDs back. And so as you know, particularly from a shut-in perspective, we're trying to ascertain whether we believe the revenues are going to exceed the variable cost. And so -- that analysis would hold -- as you look just to potentially bring those wells back on. So kind of the same analysis that we do going in. We'll do coming back out in order to determine when the right time to bring those shut-in wells back on. I would say in terms of the curtailment bucket, in terms of restricted flowbacks and things like that, we're probably going to air on the side. You know, even though we've seen a bit of improvement here, week over week in prices still doesn't feel like the right thing to do to push a bunch of flush production even into this kind of market. So I would expect you'll see us be fairly conservative on that front.
Dave Hager:
And Neal, one thing I might add, you didn't ask, but I'll put it in there for context. With the -- I suspect that we are using a very, very similar methodology for determining whether to shut-in as other people in the industry when the revenue does not exceed the variable expense of producing those variables. What this really shows is the high-quality of our asset base, the high-quality of those barrels. And in addition, the very low operating expense that we have in our key producing areas. And so it's not a methodology difference. I don't believe at all, but is a reflection of the quality of our asset position, which I think is important not only to consider for shut ins, but to think about the quality of the assets that underpinned the success of -- the future success of the company.
Neal Dingmann:
I like that clarification, David. And maybe that leads to my second. Just looking at slide eight where you all talked a bit about, which I think is a very good slide, by the way, and talks about the maintenance cap, given it looks like the quality is definitely filing there as well. As your maintenance cap continues to come down. I guess my question is, basically, this year, I think you all are saying a little less than $1 billion or so, you can keep production relatively flattish. And with maintenance, obviously coming down given now the strong portfolio, I know you don't have 2021 production guide out there, but it would look to me that given this is still both the maintenance cap coming down, you could probably still keep production rather flattish next year, probably with around the same spend this year. Is that fair to say it.
Dave Hager:
Yes, that's roughly correct.
Neal Dingmann:
Okay. Very good. Thank you all.
Operator:
Your next is from the line of Paul Cheng with Scotiabank.
Paul Cheng:
Thank you. Good morning, gentlemen.
Dave Hager:
Good morning, Paul.
Paul Cheng:
Two questions, if I may. First, on the $250 million on the cost reduction, Dave, can you guys elaborate a little bit in terms of how much of that is going to be recurring into next year? And how much is sort of a one-time because you're deferring expense or that have some temporary reduction on the compensation?
Dave Hager:
Sure, I would have Jeff Ritenour, our Chief Financial Officer to answer that.
Jeff Ritenour:
Paul, this is Jeff. Yes. So absolutely, a component of that $250 million is certainly variable. And so as you see production increase into the future, you'll see some of those costs come back as we get more active into the future. But there's also some very significant pieces related to our G&A cost structure and otherwise, that we expect to be permanent going forward. So you also had a severance tax credit in there, which is cash in the door, which we're happy to include that in our 2020 results as well. So going forward, we think it's going to be impactful for the long-term cost structure.
Paul Cheng:
Jeff, do you have a number you can share to quantify what is the recurring amount?
Jeff Ritenour:
Yes, Paul. So yes, so roughly about $100 million of that $250 million is what we would suggest is not going to move up with additional activity into the future.
Paul Cheng:
And is that all in the G&A overhead? Or is part of them in the OpEx side?
Jeff Ritenour:
No, it's across all different categories. A big component of that is your LOE, your operating cost.
Paul Cheng:
Okay. The second question is that for maybe both Jeff and Dave, you have a phenomenal balance sheet compared to a lot of your peers and a lot of peer structure. And so when you're looking at that, do you want to use your balance sheet as an offensive move and looking at the industry for consolidation as a consolidator or that you think at this point, conserving the balance sheet is more important and you were not trying to do too much on the consolidation side or that's not really in the front of your mind?
Dave Hager:
That's not on the front of our mind right now. We are absolutely focused on our financial strength and liquidity. Until we understand better the depth and duration of what we're dealing with here with the demand losses leading to lower prices, we are absolutely focused on that. We recognize that we have the capability, operational capability, the organizational capability to be a consolidator, but that's not at all where we're focused right now. We are focused on coming out of this downturn as a very strong company and we're confident we're going to be able to do it and no focus on the acquisition side right now.
Paul Cheng:
Thank you. And just a quick sign question. What is the minimum cash balance you guys need to run your normal operation? Thank you.
Dave Hager:
Yes Paul. Historically we’ve thought about that been around $500 million, so obviously we’re well north of that today, but if we get to more of a normalized environment, that would be our expectation as something in that $500 million range.
Paul Cheng:
Thank you.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Jeanine Wai with Barclays.
Jeanine Wai:
Hi, good morning everyone. Thanks for taking the call.
Dave Hager:
Good morning.
Jeanine Wai:
My first question is following up on a couple of the other questions about balance sheet and maybe throwing some operational momentum in there. At what oil price does the 2020 plan breakeven at the asset sales. I think I heard you say earlier in the call; it was about a 20% improvement versus a few years ago. So just wanted to clarify or get the baseline for that. And if there is an outspend on strip days, can you talk about how you settled on the activity level in the second half of '20 and the DUC? We can like certainly appreciate that you're not just solving for one year. So that could require leaning on the balance sheet a little bit to maintain momentum. And so we're just curious to see how you see the limit on that lean and various price scenarios because you've got a really strong balance sheet, you've got good hedges and we know that you have to factor in kind of trade-offs between your one and then and then year two, three plus.
Jeff Ritenour:
Yes, Jeanine, this is Jeff. So on 2020, as it relates to our -- the new capital program that we rolled out for at $1 billion, we're obviously having the benefit of the hedges that we have in 2020. But our breakeven price now is -- we built the program around kind of a $20 oil price for the rest of the year. So you've got the actuals for the first quarter and then roughly $20 oil for the remainder of the year, and that gets you kind of to a free cash flow neutral standpoint before you get your asset sale proceeds. And then going forward, the answer the second part of your question, we really -- our primary directive for 2020 was all about maintaining our liquidity through the end of the year. Obviously, as Dave described earlier, we don't have a good sense yet of the depth and duration of the downturn. So we wanted to make sure we maximized our liquidity through the remainder of 2020, so that we can walk into 2021 and hopefully build upon our operational momentum. And potentially, in the future, we might, to your point, have to lean on the balance sheet a little bit more. But our intention for 2020 is not to do that. So we want to maintain or, frankly, improve upon our cash balance and liquidity position as we work through 2020.
Jeanine Wai:
Great. That's very helpful. Thank you. My second question is following up on Neal's question about production curtailments. So, for the curtailments, you talked about when price exceed variable costs, you're going to produce. And so, there are kind of other considerations that you already ran through about leases and other things. But in terms of the curtailments, why not curtail more do you see additional curtailments as being NPV negative given either your macro view or the cost of implementing them, which we've heard varying them, which we've heard varying commentary on what that is this earning season. And we've heard some commentary from other operators that they're shutting in cash flow positive base production because they just simply don't like the netbacks are seeing and they believe in the contango in the curve and they've got the balance sheet to kind of withstand that period, and Devon has a very strong balance sheet, too. So we just wanted to kind of dig into that a little bit more on how you're thinking about it.
David Harris:
Janine, it's David. Yes, I think from our standpoint, look, we're -- first of all, you start with flow assurance, right? You got to make sure you can move the molecules. We feel really good about that. Then you turn to that economic analysis that you described. And from our perspective, our objective is to maximize cash flow. And so to the extent that we believe that the revenues are going to exceed those costs and generate positive cash flow, we believe that's the right answer. We've heard some of that commentary as well. Jeff can chime in here and give you more color. But I think what we would suggest to you is based on the analysis we've done you probably need a lot more contango than you see in the market today to really make that math go around. And so whether or not that's really a motivating other people's decisions or not, it's hard for us to say. But we feel comfortable with the approach we've taken. We absolutely believe it's the right answer from a multiyear perspective.
Jeff Ritenour:
Yes. Jeanine, this is Jeff. I would just echo David's comments. From our standpoint, to the extent we can get revenues above that variable cost, that's incremental cash margin that offsets our fixed cost, which again, supports our primary directive of maintaining and growing our liquidity position. So, as David said, you've got to have pretty significant contango in the market to really shut-in wells for any sort of duration. So we feel -- and again, it goes to the comment that Dave made earlier in the call, it goes to the quality of our asset base and the low fixed cost or excuse me, variable costs that we have in each of our operating basins.
DaveHager:
We've done a lot of work on this Jeanine. And I don't know how others are thinking about it, but be glad to walk you through the math that we've done with it. But I think that you have to keep yourself in mind, you're losing the cash flow of the entire barrel if you shut it in, and you're only gaining the cash flow between what that well would have produced if you hadn't shut it in and what it will produce, given the pack you had shut it in. It's not the entire barrel you get back. It's just the incremental difference between those two numbers. And so you got to -- so given that, you've got to have a lot of contango and much more than is in the market right now to make that make economic sense from a cash flow standpoint.
Jeanine Wai:
Great. Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question on the line of Josh Silverstein with Wolfe Research.
Josh Silverstein:
Good morning, guys. Just a question on the maintenance oil levels, does that assume that there's going to be growth in the Delaware Basin and declines elsewhere? And then if we were to think about the maintenance scenario as well, how does it look like on a BOE basis? I imagine there's probably declines in gas and NGLS but I just wanted to go over that with you.
David Harris:
Josh, this is David. Yes, I think directionally, you're right. I think you would expect to see a bit of decline on the NGL on the gas side to hold that oil flat. Year-over-year, it's probably a little bit of growth in Delaware with sort of the other three key assets offsetting that just a little bit.
Josh Silverstein:
Got you. And was that factor into the overall kind of corporate decline rate you were talking about in the 30s range?
David Harris:
Yes.
Josh Silverstein:
Got it. And then Jeff, you made some comments before about the cash on hand, the $500 million of ongoing cash. What's your thoughts on how you would look to deploy, I guess, the rest of it. There's no leverage or maturity concerns right now, but your credit pricing has certainly come on down over the course of the last three months. Is there an opportunity here for you guys to start retiring some of that? Or would you just want to keep this cash on hand for the eventual recovery to kind of restart the engine here?
Jeff Ritenour:
Yes. No, absolutely. I appreciate the question. Obviously, at this point, we think it's too soon to jump out there and repurchase that even though we do have some issues trading at a discount. Our intention at the moment is to maintain and build upon our liquidity through the end of the year. As we get better clarity around the kind of the depth and duration of the downturn, that is absolutely something that will be on the top of our priority list, as Dave mentioned earlier, which is to further reduce leverage. So, we'll look at opportunities to jump out there and repurchase debt. And then beyond that, it's going to be returning cash to shareholders as we talked about in the past. So as Dave mentioned, we'll look at different dividend strategies and potentially share repurchases at some point in the future.
Josh Silverstein:
Got it. And maybe just a follow-up on that. I know you earmarked the Barnett proceeds for buyback. And with that now push back into December, is there any thought about opportunistic buybacks with the stock in at this price? Or does that kind of get pushed into 2021 now?
Jeff Ritenour:
No, absolutely not. No, we've suspended the stock program, stock repurchase program, obviously, given the current environment to, again, protect our liquidity and so we won't have any -- we don't expect to have any share repurchase for the remainder of this year.
Josh Silverstein:
Great. Thanks guys.
Operator:
Your next question from the line of Nitin Kumar with Wells Fargo.
Nitin Kumar:
Good morning and thank you for taking my question. My first question is just around the capital efficiency, the operational efficiency you talked about in the Wolfcamp. As you slow down activity, is there a risk that you could see some of those operating efficiencies come down? Or have you already accounted for those?
David Harris:
No. We don't think that's a big risk. I think that's part of how we've looked at the different variables and thinking about why the current activity level is the right level for us. So no, we feel like we can continue to not just maintain the level of efficiency you've seen, but continue to drive it forward. And the one thing I would remind you, I mean, we've talked a lot about the cost side of the equation this morning. And certainly, that's important. Remember that the capital efficiency piece has also got a productivity component in there. And so you've seen our productivity results from our wells, not just in the Wolfcamp, but across the Delaware and the rest of the portfolio. Clearly, those are competitive with what we think anything -- anybody is doing in the industry. And so we're not just trying to cut costs at the sake of -- at the risk of jeopardizing productivity. We're going to continue to focus on both aspects of that equation to maximize that result going forward.
Nitin Kumar:
Got it. Thank you. And David, I certainly appreciate, I think investors appreciate your comments early on about the change in the business model. What 100 DUCs play in your 2021 program? You talked about very moderate single-digit growth. I'm kind of curious because 100 DUCs is probably not the right level for the amount of capital you're spending. So just curious, how do you plan to deploy those DUCs for 2021? Is it for growth or something else?
Dave Hager:
No. I would -- we feel that, the 100 DUCs are essentially just a good working level of DUCs given our activity levels. And so the point, we're trying to make is that we have not included the drawdown of those DUCs to show what our maintenance capital, as I think some other companies have talked about that fact, frankly, that they say park when they calculate maintenance capital. That they are including, draw down of DUCs which we think is not really matches what the actual definition of maintenance capital. It should just include a more static level that is consistent with the ongoing business. Now, the 100 DUCs is going to allow us absolutely the ability to restart the business very quickly, since we're not drawing those down. So that is another reason, and we feel good about moving into 2021.
Nitin Kumar:
Okay. Thank you for answering questions.
Operator:
Your next question in the line of Jeffrey Campbell with Tuohy Brothers.
Jeffrey Campbell:
Good morning. First question, I was wondering, if you could rank order the plays after the Delaware Basin that will attract capital when the time is right. I thought that PRB results were quite impressive, particularly the Teapot wells and zone has not gone a lot of discussion versus the Turner, the Parkman of Niobrara industry-wide.
David Harris:
Thanks for the question. I would say, it’s a bit difficult to give you a rank order today, a lot is going to depend on gas and NGL prices. We've obviously got a lot of optionality in the stack out there. You're exactly right. The powder results in the Teapot have been impressive continue to have a really low breakeven cost. One of the things we highlighted that, that basin our highest margin asset in the portfolio for the quarter. It's a high oil cut. It's a light high-quality oil that we think is really desirable. So it's got a lot of torque to higher prices. And don't forget the Eagle Ford, we've got a lot of exciting stuff going there from a redevelopment and an infill perspective that, we think is going to meaningfully extend the life of really highly competitive economic work to do there. And so across those three they all have a little bit of a mix from an oil, gas and NGL perspective. So we like all three of them. We think all three of them have an important place in the portfolio going forward, but a rank order really going to depend on what kind of assumptions you want to make across the three streams.
Jeffrey Campbell:
Okay, that's fair. I appreciate that. And just a follow-up on a prior question, when you say that you can accelerate the 2021 activity DUC portfolio that you're going to have in hand at this yearend 2020. Is that still consistent with this -- I'm talking about acceleration. Is that still consistent with the long-term approximately 5% growth target that you've laid-out as part of the business case going forward? Thank you.
David Harris:
Yes. Certainly. I don’t think we intend that, that to diverge from Dave's comments really around what we believe the more appropriate growth rate for the industry and for Devon likely is, I do think it does give us in a pretty volatile environment, some good flexibility and optionality as we think about how we want to restart those and at what pace.
Jeffrey Campbell:
Okay, great. Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question in the line of Brian Singer with Goldman Sachs.
Brian Singer:
Thank you. Good morning. To follow-up on a couple of the earlier questions, what would be the key price point you would need to see before moving from maintenance capital back to growth mode and do you need to see leverage go sub one times before moving to that mid-single-digit growth or a sub one times leverage a function of mid-single-digit growth?
Jeff Ritenour:
Hey Brian, yes, this is Jeff. Yes, as we said before, our absolute priority would be to reduce leverage going forward and get to that one times net debt -- or frankly, lower on that net debt to EBITDA ratio. So, that's going to be in the front of our mind as we move. And again, the growth rate for us is an output of the inputs, right? As we think about our business, number one, ensuring that we have the financial flexibility and strength that we want. We've highlighted that with that net debt to EBITDA target as one measure that we look at. We're committed to running the business to be at worse neutral on free cash flow on a go-forward basis. And then that growth rate will ultimately fall out of the capital that we spend, obviously, in each of our different growth rate will ultimately fall out areas, constrained by those bigger picture financial objectives.
Brian Singer:
Got it. So, should we think of maintenance mode as continuing until we see a sub one times leverage show up?
Jeff Ritenour:
I wouldn't -- no, I don't think I would pin it down to -- we have to have that sort of metric before we would accelerate any activity. Again, it's going to be a function of all the different price dynamics that we're seeing in the market, the shape of the curve, how comfortable we feel that that's sustainable; longer term, our ability to hedge. So, as you know, there's a bunch of different variables that will go into that calculus before we determine what increased activity looks like.
Dave Hager:
Brian, directionally, I would say, you probably need to think in terms of a sustainable $40 to $45 WTI before we would go out of maintenance capital mode and start looking at growth again.
Brian Singer:
Great. Thank you. And then my follow-up is, when you talk and highlight the success you're having in lowering your cost in the Permian and the Wolfcamp as well as the maintenance capital, how much of that do you attribute to either the process that's unique to Devon, the assets or is it just indicative that there's more widespread potential for the industry to push supply cost down across the Permian Basin in particular?
David Harris:
Brian, this is David. I think from our perspective, I think we have a lot of confidence that it's our assets and it’s the high level that our teams are performing at. It can't be noted enough. I think the execution you're seeing is the result of a lot of really seamless integration across multiple disciplines that are driving that cost result. And so I think from our perspective, if you look at the sort of costs that we're putting up relative to what you're seeing from others. Certainly, we feel like that is highly unique to us. And you couple that with what we believe are best-in-class assets and that gets you to what we think is a really differentiated result.
Dave Hager:
I think there's a potential for the whole industry to get better, but that's okay. We'll be even better than that at the end. So, that's all right.
Brian Singer:
Great. Thank you.
Operator:
And your next question in the line of Charles Meade with Johnson Rice.
Charles Meade:
Good morning Dave to you and your whole team there.
Dave Hager:
Good morning Charles.
Charles Meade:
So, I -- you guys have talked a lot about your curtailments and I appreciate the real detailed explanation you've given on your process. But I'm wondering if you could add some detail about decompose it along the time line. In other words, how much of that 2Q curtailment, have you already -- is already in the books in April? And what are you expecting for May? And what's the plan for June? Does it look different from May?
David Harris:
Charles, this is David. The number that we've given you reflects decisions we've made for April and May. So those are things that that we've already done and we have forecasted out for the quarter. For the production month of June those decisions will be made here over the next couple of weeks. And so it's hard to -- it feels better than it did last week, but it's hard to predict just given the amount of volatility we've seen in the market, what exactly June will look like in terms of the decisions we make.
Jeff Ritenour:
Hey, Charles, this is Jeff. I would just add, though, that to David's comments that as it relates to June, obviously, we've seen prices firm up on both the roll and the calendar month average. And our marketing teams along with the business unit teams have worked really closely together and done a great job kind of getting out in front of what we're seeing in the market. And so, at this point in time, as David said, things can and have changed quickly over the last several months on a day-to-day basis, but at this point in time, we don't see a significant incremental amount of shut-ins or curtailments at this point.
Charles Meade:
Got it. Yes, let's hope it keeps getting better. And then my follow-up, on the Barnett close, the sale of that -- or the close of that deal. You mentioned you're on track. What are some of the signposts that we should look for along that track as we go through rest of the year?
Jeff Ritenour:
Hey, Charles, this is Jeff. I would say the first piece, which is important was the incremental deposit that we got in the door. So we've already collected $170 million of deposit from our counterparty there. And then going forward, frankly, there's not a lot. I mean, as we work forward to the end of the year, the teams have done a great job of taking off all the responsibilities that we have related to the contract to move us towards close. So we feel really good about that and look forward to getting to close by year-end.
Charles Meade:
Thanks Jeff.
Scott Coody:
Well, it looks like we've made it through all of our questions in the queue today. I appreciate everyone's interest in Devon. And if you have any further questions, feel free to reach out to the Investor Relations team at any time. Thank you for your interest.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Welcome to Devon Energy's Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2019 Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. This call is being recorded. I would now like to turn the call over to Scott Coody, Vice President of Investor Relations. Sir, you may begin.
Scott Coody:
Good morning and thank you to everyone for joining us on the call today. Last night, we issued an earnings release and operations report that cover our results for the year and our forward-looking outlook. We will make references to our operations report during the call today to aid the conversation and these slides can be found on our website at devonenergy.com. Also joining me on the call today are, Dave Hager, our President and CEO; Jeff Ritenour, our Chief Financial Officer; David Harris, our Executive Vice President of Exploration and Production; and a few other members of our senior management team. Comments on the call today will contain plans, forecasts and estimates that are forward-looking statements under U.S. securities law. These comments are subject to assumptions, risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ from our forward-looking statements. Please take note of the cautionary language and risk factors provided in our SEC filings and earnings materials. With that, I'll turn the call over to Dave.
Dave Hager:
Thanks, Scott and good morning everyone. For Devon, 2019 can best be defined as a year of exceptional execution and differentiating performance across every aspect of our business. As you can see on slide 5 of our operations report, a critical accomplishment during the year was our timely and tax-efficient transformation to a U.S. oil business. Even with the challenging market conditions, we successfully completed our portfolio simplification objectives in only 10 months and we're able to exit noncore assets at highly accretive valuations. Furthermore, by sharpening our focus on Devon's world-class U.S. oil assets, we delivered a step change improvement in corporate level rates of return, achieved enhanced capital efficiencies, expanded our margins, reduced leverage and returned industry-leading amounts of capital to shareholders. All in all, it was a great year. But let me be clear, we are just getting started and the investment case for Devon has never been stronger. Looking ahead to 2020, our strategic framework for success and disciplined capital priorities remain unchanged. These priorities are outlined on slide 10 of our operations report. As always, Devon's top priorities will be to fund the maintenance capital requirements of our business and the quarterly dividend. Once these objectives are met, next step in our capital allocation process is to selectively deploy capital to high-return projects that will efficiently expand the cash flow of our business. Importantly, our 2020 plan meets all of these capital allocation priorities at low breakeven funding levels, even after accounting for the recent weaknesses in gas and NGL strip pricing. Should this volatility drive prices higher, we will remain disciplined and the benefits of any pricing windfall above our conservative base planning scenario will manifest itself in higher levels of free cash flow for shareholders, not higher capital spending. Conversely, should we see price volatility to the downside, we've designed our operating plan to have the flexibility and agility to reassess the capital program and react to any structural changes in the macro environment. Now, let's run through some of the specifics of our 2020 operating plan, which you can see on slide 11. The key takeaway from this slide is that, due to capital efficiencies, we are lowering the top end of our upstream capital guidance in 2020 by $50 million to a range of $1.7 billion to $1.85 billion. Furthermore, the impact of this investment program in 2020 is expected to be enhanced by a reallocation of capital from the STACK, a liquids-rich combo play to the Delaware, the top oil play in all of North America. This shift in capital allocation will increase spending in the Delaware Basin by approximately 15% year-over-year and Delaware will now account for approximately 60% of total capital investment for the year. Another important distinction of our 2020 program is that, the reallocation of capital to the Delaware Basin will be deployed exclusively towards accelerating Wolfcamp development activity. This is significant because, our Wolfcamp activity exhibited the most substantial capital efficiency improvement of any opportunity in our portfolio in the back half of 2019. With this increased capital allocation, the Wolfcamp will now account for two-thirds of our Delaware activity, providing a visible capital efficiency tailwind that will accrue to our benefit throughout 2020 and carry forward into 2021 as well. While the 2020 capital program is concentrated in the Delaware Basin, I would be remiss not to mention the exciting catalyst-rich program we have planned for the Powder River Basin. With the appraisal success we achieved in the Niobrara in 2019, we plan to double our activity levels in this emerging resource play over the upcoming year. A key objective of the Niobrara program in 2020 is to derisk and to prepare a portion of our 200,000 net acres for full development by early next year. And lastly, with our Eagle Ford and STACK assets, it will be business as usual, with the operating team laser-focused on executing on their capital programs efficiently, managing base production and maximizing free cash flow for the company. Turning your attention to Slide 12. Based on the strong operational momentum of our business, we are raising Devon's per share growth outlook for 2020. Not surprisingly, this improved outlook is underpinned by the outstanding well performance we are experiencing in the Delaware Basin. As a result, we are now increasing the lower end of our oil growth outlook by 50 basis points to a range of 7.5% to 9% compared to 2019. And to reiterate, this higher growth rate is matched with lower capital spending expectations as well. To maximize the value of this production, we have aggressively acted over the past year to materially improve our corporate cost structure. The success of this ongoing initiative is evidenced by Devon's G&A costs projected to be reduced by 25% year-over-year. And lastly, while Jeff will speak to this later in the call, the per share impact of this improved 2020 outlook will be further magnified by our new $1 billion share repurchase program and yesterday's announcement to increase the quarterly dividend by 22%. Moving to Slide 13. While 2020 is setting out to be a great year for Devon, another critical message I want to convey is that the differentiated operating performance achieved in 2019 is sustainable longer term. At Devon, we absolutely have the right personnel, financial strength and inventory depth to deliver both attractive growth rates and increased amounts of free cash flow in 2021 and beyond. While it is too early to provide official guidance for 2021, our thoughtful and pragmatic approach to the business will remain the same. Our Delaware-centric capital program will remain focused on steady activity levels that deliver the right balance between returns, capital efficiencies, growth rates and free cash flow. With this disciplined financial framework, we believe investors can directionally expect a mid- to high single-digit oil growth rate in 2021 for a relatively stable amount of capital investment. A noteworthy driver of this preliminary outlook is the positive rate of change we expect to realize from our transition to higher Wolfcamp development activity. Looking beyond the next few years given the quality of our inventory, I believe a sustainable long-term oil growth rate in the mid-single-digit range feels an appropriate rate to expand our business while generating increasing amounts of free cash flow that can effectively compete with any sector in the market. Slide 14 showcases the free cash flow our business can deliver through 2021. As you can see in the gray box at the top of the slide, Devon's improved operating outlook lowers a breakeven funding level of our operating plan in 2020 and 2021 from our previous disclosure last November. The combination of higher oil growth rate and improved cost structure and a stronger hedge book, now allow us to fully fund our capital program at $46.50 WTI and $2 Henry Hub pricing and Mont Belvieu realizations of less than 30% of WTI. While we are pleased with these improvements in breakeven funding, which meaningfully improves our position on the U.S. cost curve, we are not stopping here. To be successful in this unforgiving environment, you must roll up your sleeves, get your hands dirty and on a daily basis look for ways to reduce costs by controlling the controllables. And at Devon, that is exactly what we're focused on. So, in summary, Devon's multi-basin oil business is built to last. And our disciplined capital plans are designed to deliver compelling amounts of free cash flow and an attractive growth in our per share metrics for the foreseeable future. And with that, I'll turn the call over to Jeff to review our financial strategy. And detail how we plan to allocate the excess cash flow, from our business.
Jeff Ritenour:
Thanks, Dave. At Devon, we believe our financial strategy and underlying balance sheet strength are significant competitive advantages. The extreme commodity price volatility, we've experienced over the last year, is a constant reminder that the strong balance sheet. And effective risk management programs are critical to the long-term success, of an E&P company. Core to our financial strategy, is the emphasis on building a high-margin asset base. Devon's advantaged asset base is very well positioned, on North America's marginal cost curve. The high-grading of our asset portfolio over the last several years, and the disciplined allocation of capital to our highest return opportunities, is working to lower the breakeven pricing for the company. As Dave mentioned in his opening remarks, and as outlined on slide 14, our improved operating outlook, has lowered the breakeven funding level of our operating plan in 2020 and 2021, from our previous disclosure last November. This allows us to provide shareholders with free cash flow, even in, challenged commodity price environments. To further expand our margin of safety, we are actively deploying proven and progressive risk management. And supply chain practices to optimize our financial results. The example of this includes our disciplined hedging program, which uses a combination of systematic and discretionary hedges, to effectively mitigate pricing volatility. We have over 40% of our 2020 projected oil production, hedged at an average floor of $53 per barrel, well over our funding breakeven pricing of $46.50 per barrel. In addition, our supply chain team has shifted the majority of our contracted services to shorter-term, over the last year, allowing us to take advantage of the deflationary environment. And providing flexibility should market conditions change. Demand changes and activity to preserve free cash flow. In combination with our high liquidity and low leverage, these prudent risk management and supply chain practices, allow us to optimize planning efforts and enhance our capital allocation decisions, in periods of uncertainty. Now turning your attention to slide 8 of our operations report, I plan to briefly cover the details of our financial position, where we have built a tremendous amount of flexibility. An important strategic priority over the last year has been the repayment of debt, to further strengthen our investment-grade financial position. We made significant progress towards this initiative in 2019, as we retired $1.7 billion of senior notes, which reduced our debt ratio to around 1 times, net debt-to-EBITDA on a trailing 12-month basis. Importantly, this deleveraging activity, completely cleared Devon's outstanding debt maturity runway, until late 2025 extending the weighted average maturity of our debt portfolio to more than 18 years. While our balance sheet is in great shape, and we have tremendous flexibility, we're not done making improvements. In the fourth quarter, Devon generated $171 million of free cash flow. And we exited the year with $1.8 billion of cash on hand. Furthermore, Devon's cash balances will increase, upon close in mid-April, with our $770 million, Barnett Shale divestiture. We are keeping a close watch on, interest rates and credit spreads, as we evaluate the next potential steps in our debt repurchase plan. Current market dynamics have driven redemption premiums substantially higher. But we are prepared to be patient and opportunistic to repurchase additional debt should the market move to our benefit. Pivoting your attention to the left hand of slide 9, another top financial priority for Devon is returning capital to shareholders in the form of an increasing dividend. Overall, from a dividend policy perspective, we are targeting a payout ratio of 5% to 10% of operating cash flow, at our base planning scenario of $50 WTI pricing. Additionally, we believe consistent and sustainable growth in our dividend, provides for a very attractive and competitive result, when compared to our E&P peers and other large-cap companies, across the broader S&P 500. Our $46.50 per barrel breakeven underpins this policy, and supports growth in the dividend over time. Given the strength of our projected 2020 financial outlook and reduced breakeven, we were pleased to announce last night, that our Board has approved a 22% increase in Devon's quarterly dividend. This shareholder-friendly action is consistent with our target payout ratios, and is aligned with our commitment to steadily grow the dividend over time to a level that is highly competitive with other sectors in the market. As you can see on the right-hand side of slide 9 in addition to our dividend, we are also returning cash to shareholders through Devon's industry-leading share repurchase program. Since our program began in 2018, we've repurchased 147 million shares at a total cost of $4.8 billion. Our Board of Directors authorized a new $1 billion program last December paving the way for additional repurchases in 2020 and total -- and a total reduction in Devon's outstanding share count of approximately 35% by year-end. This is not only the most active program in the E&P space, but it also outpaces the activity of any company regardless of sector in the S&P 500. We have been aggressively buying our shares over the last year at levels ranging from $20 to $25 per share. Given our view of the attractive valuation of our shares compared to the intrinsic value of the company, you can expect more of the same from us in 2020. In summary, the disciplined financial model we are using to operate the company is working and checks all the boxes necessary for long-term success. We have a strong financial position with a low breakeven funding level and our business can generate excess cash flow in any commodity price environment. We have excellent liquidity and strong balance sheet with very low leverage ratios and we're rewarding our shareholders with a return of cash through our dividend and share repurchase program. With that, I'll turn the call over to David Harris to cover our operating performance and outlook.
David Harris:
Thanks, Jeff. The fourth quarter was another strong one operationally for Devon that can best be described by oil production once again exceeding guidance and capital spending coming in 6% below forecast. This trend of operational excellence has now been established over multiple quarters and is a testament to the high level of performance each of our asset teams in effectively fulfilling their respective roles in our business. For my prepared comments today, I plan to cover the asset-specific highlights that are driving this positive business momentum and provide some insights and observations regarding our outlook for 2020. As you can see on slide 16 of the operations report, our world-class Delaware Basin asset is the capital-efficient growth engine driving Devon's operational outperformance. In the fourth quarter, net production from the Delaware continued to increase rapidly growing 82% on a year-over-year basis. This strong growth was driven by 36 high-impact wells brought online in the quarter that were diversified across all five core areas in the Wolfcamp, Bone Spring and Leonard formations. These strong wells achieved average 30-day rates of 2,800 BOEs per day of which 70% was oil at an average cost of around 75 million -- $7.5 million per well. The overall returns from our fourth quarter program in the Delaware Basin were simply outstanding. Looking specifically at the project level detail for the quarter. Our much anticipated Cat Scratch 2.0 project did not disappoint. This 10-well project which developed a second Bone Spring sweet spot exceeded our pre-drill expectations by reaching average 30-day rates of 3,000 BOEs per well or 425 BOEs per 1,000 feet of lateral. While the Cat Scratch results were certainly impressive, I believe the top thematic takeaway for the fourth quarter activity is the operational momentum we are establishing with our Wolfcamp program. As you can see on the map at the right side of slide 16, we brought online three impactful Wolfcamp projects during the quarter to help further validate the commerciality of multiple Wolfcamp landing zones across the basin of Southeast New Mexico. Of particular note was our highly successful seven-well Spud Muffin project in the Potato Basin area in Eddy County in which we co-developed the third Bone Spring and Upper Wolfcamp intervals. While industry has been active for some time in the Potato Basin area, the Spud Muffin project was our initial operated test in this area. And given the well productivity we experienced, this will be an area that definitely works its way into the Delaware Basin capital allocation mix going forward, which further deepens our resource-rich opportunity set in this franchise asset. As Dave touched on in his opening remarks, the setup of the Delaware Basin in 2020 is exciting. Our diversified development programs across our five core areas position us for another year of exceptionally strong oil growth. In total, we expect to invest around $1 billion of capital in the Delaware that will result in approximately 130 operated spuds. Of this activity, we are allocating nearly 65% to the Wolfcamp formation, which essentially represents a doubling of Wolfcamp activity year-over-year. To reiterate comments from earlier in the call, this shift in Delaware capital allocation to the Wolfcamp is impactful given the substantial capital efficiency improvements we've achieved in the second half of 2019. In fact in the most recent quarter, our drilled and completed feet-per-day metrics in the Wolfcamp improved 48% and 62% year-over-year, respectively. These steadily improving cycle times and costs provide a capital efficiency tailwind heading into 2020. The next asset I would like to discuss is the Powder River Basin, an important emerging oil growth opportunity in our portfolio. In the fourth quarter our development-focused program commenced production on 19 new wells that drove net production more than 50% higher year-over-year. Importantly, this oil-weighted production growth was accompanied by a step change improvement in capital efficiency. Specifically looking at the Turner formation, which was our top development target in 2019 the team did a fantastic job of substantially reducing cycle times and recognizing savings of more than $1 million per well as well cost pushed towards $6 million per well by year end. As I look ahead to the upcoming year, our highest priority in the Powder River Basin is the delineation of our Niobrara potential. Our Niobrara position consisting of 200,000 net acres in the core of the play's chalk window has repeatable resource play characteristics and the potential to be an important growth driver for Devon longer term. Over the past two years, results from our Niobrara appraisal work have confirmed this potential with 11 operated wells now online and the average 30-day rates from these oil-prone wells reaching as high as 1,500 BOEs per day. Further progressing the team's confidence, our initial spacing test brought online in the second half of 2019 would suggest the commercial potential for at least three to four wells per section. These tests have also confirmed our ability to develop the Niobrara independent of the deeper Turner interval. Based on positive operating results obtained to-date, we are doubling our Niobrara activity in 2020 to approximately 15 wells. With this increased capital allocation, we are methodically focusing our delineation efforts in the Southwest quadrant of our acreage, which we call Atlas West and has delivered some of the highest oil rates in the basin. With additional success, we believe it's possible to ready a portion of our Atlas West acreage for full field development in 2021. And finally, our Eagle Ford and STACK assets are successfully fulfilling their strategically important roles in our portfolio providing nearly $600 million of free cash flow over the past year. Specifically in the Eagle Ford, the key message I want to convey is that we have reestablished operational momentum in the play with our new partner, exiting the year producing around 53,000 BOEs per day. Our fourth quarter operations were impacted by a well control event related to surface equipment. This situation has been resolved but it did result in estimated downtime of 9,000 BOEs per day in the quarter and remediation costs in the quarter of approximately $7 million. Looking ahead to 2020, we expect to maintain strong operational continuity in the Eagle Ford running an average of three to four rig lines through most of the year. This disciplined and capital-efficient plan is expected to deliver a modest increase in our production volumes on a year-over-year basis while staying true to the role of generating significant amounts of free cash flow. Lastly in the STACK, we are excited about our recently announced Dow joint venture. With the Dow deal we have monetized half of our working interest in 133 undrilled locations in exchange for a $100 million drilling carry over the next four years. This innovative agreement will help us bring forward value in the STACK, while delivering carry-enhanced returns that compete effectively for capital within our portfolio. In addition to the benefits of a drilling carry, our returns are also expected to be enhanced by lower well cost from focused infill drilling and from midstream incentive rates that substantially improve per unit operating cost for each new well brought online. Initial activity from the Dow joint venture will begin in the second quarter of 2020 with a two-rig program developing the 18-well Jacobs Row in Northern Canadian County. First production from the Jacobs Row is forecast to occur in early 2021. While we will continue to look for smart ways to enhance the value of our STACK position, we are quite pleased with the initial step we have taken with Dow. That concludes my prepared remarks. And I would like to turn the call back over to Scott.
Scott Coody:
Thanks David. We'll now open the call to Q&A. Please limit yourself to one question and a follow-up. This allows us to get to more of your questions on the call today. With that operator, we'll take our first question.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] The first question is from Arun Jayaram of JPMorgan. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
Arun Jayaram:
Yeah. Good morning. Dave the 2020 capital allocation obviously 60% going to the Delaware, 20% to Powder, 17% to the Eagle Ford and 3% in the STACK. And the STACK CapEx is down from call it a 16% mix last year. How comfortable are you with the complement -- complementary assets in the portfolio to the Delaware? And how are you thinking about inorganic opportunities as we did see a favorable reaction to the WPX Felix transaction, which was announced a few weeks ago?
Dave Hager :
Sure Arun. Yeah, first off, we are very comfortable with the capital allocation we have and frankly the shift of capital from the STACK to the Delaware is the primary reason that you're going to see the growth that we have described in 2021 in general terms, why that is sustainable over a longer period of time, because if you think about it conceptually it takes nine to 12 months for first production to come from capital. And so really for the most part the capital that we're spending in 2020 where we've shifted some of that capital to the Delaware is being reflected in 2021 production results, which is driving that oil growth rate. And that is sustainable for many, many years with the deep inventory of opportunities that we have in the Delaware Basin. So that's fundamentally why we're going to see the kind of growth rates that we're describing here for a long time. Now given that that we are comfortable and we are driving higher capital efficiencies internally, we're driving higher levels of cash flow and focused on returning that value to shareholders through increased capital efficiencies and the higher cash flow that we're generating, we have no need to do an acquisition. Now are we looking at opportunities? Absolutely. That -- we are in the deal flow. We're always going to be in a deal flow. We think that's part of our job. But we are going to be incredibly disciplined around any decision regarding that because of the strength of our internal portfolio that we have and the confidence that we have that we're going to be able to continue to drive higher cash flow through the oil growth and increased capital efficiencies.
Arun Jayaram:
Great. And I had one operating question. I know there's been a lot of excitement around the Cat Scratch area Todd. We did want to see if you could maybe elaborate on the initial delineation success in the Potato Basin. I think your pad is just south of Oxy's height and length 14-well program. So I was wondering if you could talk about some of the implications of these delineation results and perhaps capital allocation on a go-forward basis in this fifth part of your Delaware Basin portfolio.
David Harris :
Arun, this is David Harris. Thanks for the question. Yeah, we're really excited about the Potato Basin areas. I mentioned in my prepared remarks, this is an area where some other companies including Oxy as you mentioned have been active for a little while. Spud Muffin is our first operated test. We brought seven wells online there and they far exceeded our expectations for that area. And so we think we're going to see increasing activity out there not just from an industry perspective, but you'll increasingly see it compete for capital within our portfolio. I think if you look in the operations report at kind of how we've allocated capital throughout the year, it's going to be roughly about 20% of our capital or so going forward. And so it's one of the things that we like about the Delaware position that we have in the five core areas. We're diversified across the basin of Southeast New Mexico and think that that will continue to be an exciting area for us going forward.
Arun Jayaram:
Great. Thanks for those comments.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Doug Leggate of Bank of America.
Doug Leggate:
Thanks. Good morning, everybody. Actually I'm wondering if I could just follow-up on Arun's question on the Delaware inventory. Dave, we haven't really heard you talk about inventory depth in quite a while at least not in terms of numbers in your slide deck. So, I just wondered if you could give us an update as to how that risk development inventory looks, particularly in the Delaware. And if I may this bolt-on a part B to that, we haven't really heard a lot of people talk much about interference or parent-child issues since I guess about a year ago. So I just want to make sure that we're -- you guys are comfortable with the spacing that you're developing the Delaware at this point.
Dave Hager:
Yeah. Thanks Doug. Well, frankly we have the inventory slide in our corporate deck I think everything up until this presentation. There's no big news. We just had a lot of other information we wanted to cover on in this operations report. So, we didn't have it in there. But there's -- and David Harris can give you a little bit more detail on this, but we have a very deep inventory in the Delaware Basin that is going to compete for capital for many, many years. And that's going to be the underpinning of the growth in the company. Now when we say we have that kind of inventory, we are obviously thinking about issues such as what is the right spacing, parent-child relationships, et cetera. That's all incorporated in that. Now, I think you may in the future and we're constantly refreshing this, our feelings on this, you may see at some point that the actual number of locations may change. But that's because we're driving to longer and longer laterals all the time, and so it may take less wells to deliver the same resource. But -- which is again part of the capital efficiency drive that we're on as a company. But the resource is really not -- I don't think is going to be changing significantly. So David, do you want to add any beyond that?
David Harris:
Yeah. You bet. I guess one thing I would add specifically in addition to some of the things that Dave noted, from a capital efficiency perspective as we laid out the roughly 2,000 wells of risked Delaware inventory last year and we're going to bring on about 130 spuds or so this year, so that's about 15 years of inventory. As Dave said, we have a long, long runway of high-quality things to do. One of the things that we really haven't reflected go forward that we think will continue to improve the quality of that inventory is the capital efficiency and the step change that we're seeing. There's -- when you're able to reduce your cost and cycle times as material as we have been and think we'll be able to continue to do, and as you're able to enhance the productivity of your well certainly that's going to have a positive impact as you roll forward and think about the development of that resource base going forward.
Doug Leggate:
Appreciate the answers, fellows. I want to maybe jump to a question for Jeff, if I may. It's got a bit of a Delaware question embedded in it. But Jeff you talked about the 5% to 10% payout ratio for dividends. Can you talk about what the right mix -- I actually just want to think about how you think about the right mix of cash returns. The long-term mid-cycle or mid-single-digit growth I should say, is kind of a new number. Is that an output of the planning process? Is that a target? How do you mix all those things together? And I guess I'll leave it at that. Thank you.
Jeff Ritenour:
Yeah. Doug I would say it's more of an output. It's a balance. We've had a balance for all the different targets and metrics that we've been talking about from a growth standpoint, from the payout ratio and the dividend. Actually I would back up and say, what underpins all of that is that lowering that breakeven funding level for us. So you heard us talk about the $46.50 for 2021. We're working obviously to lower that every day. And that's really going to underpin our financial strategy going forward as we add high-margin assets to the portfolio through the capital allocation that we've talked about more so to the Delaware on a go-forward basis. So, when we think about how that competes relative -- not only to our sector, but I would point you to the broader S&P 500 sector, we've looked at what is the kind of free cash flow yield that looks competitive. We think it's probably something in the 5% to 10% range. You marry that with what you -- what our dividend should look like and how competitive that is not only again to the S&P -- excuse me, to the E&P sector, but the broader S&P 500. And then we try to marry all that together and spit out what we think is a pretty competitive game plan not just from growth but on all those free cash flow metrics as well.
Doug Leggate:
So Jeff to be clear you're tapping the spending or are you targeting a growth rate?
Jeff Ritenour:
Yes. It's really a returns-based focus. So we start from the ground up in building our game plan and portfolio and we allocate as much capital as we can to the highest-return products and everything else just falls out of that.
Doug Leggate:
All right. Thanks so much, guys.
Jeff Ritenour:
And we measure that against the broader competitive landscape to make sure that we're in line and competitive with our peers and then the broader S&P 500.
Dave Hager:
Doug I guess, what we're trying to say here is we look at a combination of returns, growth and free cash flow generation and try to optimize at a level that is the best for all three of those metrics. And so it's not an absolute one or the other. It's an interactive look at those variables and see what we think makes the most sense overall.
Doug Leggate:
Okay. Thanks. I got it. Thanks so much, guys. I appreciate the – answer the question.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Jeanine Wai of Barclays. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
Jeanine Wai:
Hi, good morning, everyone.
Dave Hager:
Good morning.
Jeanine Wai:
My first question is on the updated corporate breakeven. So your two-year now is averaging $46.50 WTI and $2 Henry Hub. Can you just talk about how the breakeven in 2021 compares to 2020? And any changes you have to the assumptions that are embedded into that? I guess kind of what we're getting at is that the 2020 breakeven benefit from momentum in 2019 and hedges and that's true for a lot of E&Ps right now but there's also some offsets as well for you guys too. But the average $46.50 over two years seems to imply an improvement in 2021. So just any color that you would have on that would be great beyond just the timing of the Wolfcamp activity?
Jeff Ritenour:
Yes. Jeanine you're spot on. That's exactly right. It does imply improved breakeven in 2021 versus 2020. You're right. We do get – we have taken the benefit of the hedges that we have in place as it relates to 2020 but I'll point you back to some comments Dave made earlier, which is a function of our capital program. The capital that we're spending and the allocation to the Delaware and specifically the Wolfcamp in 2020 is what's really driving that improved capital efficiency in 2021. And so it's just increasing our ability to lower that breakeven in future years.
Jeanine Wai:
Okay. And then my second question is on dividend coverage. We've seen a lot of increases so far this earnings season. And when Devon thinks about dividend growth and the risk/reward associated with that, on what WTI price are you comfortable with in terms of dividend coverage on an unhedged basis?
Jeff Ritenour:
Yes. We – Jeanine, as we said in our prepared remarks and I think we've talked about in the past, we've tried to build the business around a $50 oil and kind of $2 gas price. So that's where we start with our base business plan and then evaluate obviously the different market dynamics as we go through each year with our Board to determine where the – where the dividend ultimately lands. But as we – as I discussed in my prepared remarks, what underlies our policy, our dividend policy is that 5% to 10% kind of payout ratio, which we think is very competitive with the peer group and the broader S&P 500.
Jeanine Wai:
Okay. Great. Thank you for taking my questions.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Paul Cheng of Scotiabank. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
Paul Cheng:
Hi, good morning.
David Harris:
Good morning, Paul.
Paul Cheng:
Two questions. Hi, Dave. Dave, can you maybe share if there's any information about the Atlas West data you moved into the full development? What kind of resource potential number of prospect inventory that kind of information that maybe we – you can share with us?
David Harris:
Paul, this is David Harris. If I understood the question correctly you were asking about resource potential and potential inventory in our Atlas West area is that correct?
Paul Cheng:
That's correct that you were talking about, if the 2020 delineation to be successful as expected then you will move into development in 2021. So I mean, how big is this development plan? Or that is the area that we are talking about?
David Harris:
Yes. So when we talk about Atlas West and Atlas East, it's our entire 200,000 acre position in the northern part of Converse County. So as a reminder that doesn't include any of our acreage up in Campbell, where other operators have been active in the Niobrara. As we think about that position, it's probably early before we move into development to really give you specific resource sort of numbers. But if you just did some pretty simple math at kind of the three-well spacing, which we think is kind of the bottom end of where we'd be that likely points you to something in the neighborhood of about 500 locations.
Paul Cheng:
Okay. Great. And
David Harris:
And…
Paul Cheng:
Yeah. I’m sorry.
David Harris:
I was just going to clarify that that's -- those would be two-mile locations.
Paul Cheng:
Right. And then that's including both Atlas West and Atlas East or just Atlas West?
David Harris:
Both.
Paul Cheng:
Both. Okay. The second question is that in the event when you guys just looking at any inorganic opportunity, what financial and operating matrix that will be used in the valuation? And what type of minimum matrix that you need before you would even consider? So we're trying to understand the process there. How that works?
Dave Hager:
Well, the first -- yeah, and again the most important thing to think about on this is what I said earlier in response to I think Doug's question is that we have a great game plan internally to start with. So we feel no need to do any inorganic type activity at all. Now as I said, we are in a deal flow, but we're going to be extremely disciplined. Frankly, we're in a deal flow for a couple other publics that transacted recently including the -- or a couple of deals including the Felix deal that transacted recently. So we're there and we understand what's going on overall. But to give you some idea for the criteria that we look at for any sort of M&A activity, we wanted to first off to be accretive to our financial metrics on a per-share basis. Second, it also has to fit strategically within the framework of our asset portfolio. So that it an area frankly where we can realize some sort of synergies beyond what are -- the way that is being executed right now whether that be G&A synergies, LOE synergies or capital efficiency synergies -- do we feel that we have a better way to develop these assets than are currently being developed. And then it have to compete for capital allocation within our portfolio as well. So those are some of the highest. A lot of say -- probably also one you might add would be margin expansion. Obviously, we're looking for ways that we can expand our margins overall as a company, and again, are there ways that we can reduce the cost overall of the combined entities. So that's overall the type criteria that we look at. Again, it's -- we're going to be -- remain extremely disciplined around these, because we think we absolutely have a strong strategy as it is. We have a strong asset base and we have the right people internally to execute on that these opportunities. And so we'll see if anything comes along to fit those criteria or not, but if it's -- if it doesn't that's fine because we feel very confident in our strategy.
Paul Cheng:
Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Matt Portillo of TPH. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
Matt Portillo:
Good morning.
Dave Hager:
Good morning, Matt.
Matt Portillo:
My first question relates to STACK capital allocation. Just given the depressed natural gas and NGL environment at the moment, could you provide some color on how you're thinking about rates of return in the STACK JV at strip? And is there a price at which you might consider delaying development until you see an improvement in the forward curve, while pulling forward more free cash flow generation in 2020?
David Harris:
Matt, this is David Harris. Yeah. In terms of STACK activity with Dow, as we've highlighted the first phase of the work that we're going to do with them is in the Jacobs Row, which is a Woodford Row development similar to some of the ones that we've done before. These are very predictable projects, and we're going to be looking at starting that project in the second quarter likely in the May time frame, which just given the size of the project likely means that the production isn't coming on until the first part of 2021. As we've modeled that, even at the strip today where we currently sit that initial project in the Jacobs Row represents a fully burdened rate of return of about 20%. So, given the predictability of that project, we feel good about that project internally. With respect to competing for capital obviously we have a partner. We want to stay aligned with them and so we'll continue to be mindful of the commodity price environment as we go forward and have the right kind of dialogue that you would expect as we think about forward decisions around the program.
Matt Portillo:
Great. And then just a follow-up question on capital allocation. The PRB is still receiving a large portion of the development capital and looking back over the last two years on a capital efficiency basis, definitely appears that it's lagging the Delaware to some degree, but you're progressing a couple of different initiatives especially on appraisal. Just curious as you guys think about the 2020 program for the PRB, are there some indicators on the horizon that might show a step change in capital efficiency metrics this year as it relates to that asset? And then over time, if you don't see a material change in capital efficiency, is there the potential to reallocate more capital to the Delaware Basin?
David Harris:
Yes. This is David again. Yes. I think the punchline answer to your question from a capital efficiency perspective you've already kind of hit on just in terms of the little earlier stage, nature of the assets, some of the appraisal work we're doing. So clearly we've got some science and data acquisition capital there as we're seeking to best understand the resource and how to move it into full-field development. And so I think throughout 2020 and into 2021, particularly with the Niobrara as we move into more of a development mode, we think you'll see a step change in that capital efficiency as we start to mature that asset.
Dave Hager:
You've seen the changes in the Wolfcamp as an idea of how much we've been able to drive down drilling costs and completion costs once we go into full development mode and we haven't done any of that yet in the Niobrara. And so at this point, it's just really appraisal mode. So I don't know if the numbers are going to be identical to that or not, but I -- there is definitely -- teams have internal goals I can tell you that are pretty aggressive around cost reduction that they can achieve. Once we get into full development mode and great confidence, we're going to be able to do that. But right now the focus has been as David said more on the appraisal and understanding the resource. But once we get into the development mode then things can change pretty quickly.
Matt Portillo:
Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question is from Brian Downey of Citigroup. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
Brian Downey:
Good morning and thanks for taking my questions. Maybe a follow-up on that one. So if you do move Atlas West and the PRB towards development in 2021, I'm curious broad-strokes that your flattish total 2021 CapEx level isn't how that may shift based on capital level allocation from elsewhere in 2021?
Dave Hager:
Probably not a significant shift. We'd just be able to do more activity much more efficiently, but not a significant overall shift in the capital allocation.
Brian Downey:
Okay. And then I had a question on your outlook to 2021. I was curious what service cost environment is currently contemplated in your updated 2020 CapEx guidance versus perhaps what pricing you saw in 4Q 2019, and then what if any deltas you're assuming on pricing or further efficiencies in the 2021 CapEx commentary?
Jeff Ritenour:
Yes. No. This is Jeff. We have built in some of the efficiencies that we saw in the second half of 2019 and in the fourth quarter of 2019 into the program. But as it relates to service costs inflation or deflation, we really left that flat. So we have seen some -- continue to see some deflationary environment on some of the services, so it could be a potential tailwind for us in 2020. But generally speaking, we've just assumed that that would be flat for the year.
Brian Downey:
And is that flat from...
David Harris:
And Brian just let me add a few other tidbits. You were asking about other nuances that may impact the modeling of that. And one thing you have to be mindful of is what the differentials we just carried forward kind of the current state that we're seeing right now into 2021. Where there could be upside on that is obviously is the Permian highway or Whistler comes online, you could potentially see some substantially improved realizations, but we did not build that in. And then also we saw the -- our LOE costs continue to go down as well in 2021, especially after some MBC payments roll off in the STACK. That will be a nice tailwind for us. And one other item you want to notice, we expect our G&A cost to continue to gravitate towards that $350 million target. So that would be another improvement you should account for when you're trying to calibrate to our estimates. Sorry. I didn't mean to cut you off there, but I'll let you ask your next question.
Brian Downey:
Yes. No problem. Just to clarify on the flat service price comment. Is that flat from 4Q, flat from 2019 levels? Just want to make sure I'm clear on what the baseline is there.
Jeff Ritenour:
Flat from full year.
Brian Downey:
Okay. Perfect. Appreciate it. Thanks.
Operator:
Your next question is from Neal Dingmann of SunTrust. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
Neal Dingmann:
Good morning all. Dave, my first question is for you or Jeff around your financing. Specifically, the recent drilling partnership with Dow, is this something that we could see in additional areas in the STACK or potentially other plays?
Dave Hager:
Well, we have a great relationship with Dow. And we started our relationship in the Barnett actually with them with a similar type deal. This is a little bit larger deal. And so -- and we think this is going to work very well. And so, there may be potential for Dow somewhere else. There's also -- we're looking at some opportunities around OBO capital that are not going to fit our return criteria, whether there's opportunities to bring in a partner for some of those opportunities rather than just go non-consent on those wells, but actually have someone else come in and execute a program associated with that. So, that's -- that is another type deal that we're out there working on right now. There's a possibility in the future. And I'm not talking about with Dow at this point, but it could be with other partners.
Neal Dingmann:
Interesting. Okay. And then, my follow-up my second question is on your shareholder return. You all have been aggressive in the last several months with stock repurchases. And I'm just wondering, would you all share some details on how you all think about capital allocation between these repurchases and the growth of dividends. And more specifically, I was just wondering about if you would continue to aggressively repurchase this much stock. Do you base it on what your yields or growth levels are? Just wondering, how you sort of balance those things. Thank you.
Dave Hager:
Well, I'll just start off saying, we want to have a dividend and Jeff's outlined the 5% to 10% of cash from operations. We don't want to have a dividend that is sustainable and can grow through time and so we are I think a measured approach there. We have about a 2% yield right now I think where we're currently trading. But it's something that should be sustainable and grow through time. Jeff, can go through the numbers, the cash we have and the cash we're going to be bringing in and why we feel, we can continue to be aggressive on that side. We've set out our capital program. Again, we optimized that capital program already on the basis of how we think about our -- the returns on the program, the capital efficiency this generated, the growth rate that we feel is appropriate and the free cash flow that that will generate. So that's essentially established. So then, you go back to the free cash flow that we -- or the cash that we have as a company. And bottom line, we have the cash. Jeff can go through that and we think we're significantly undervalued. So it's a great investment opportunity.
Jeff Ritenour:
Yes. So Dave, you summed it up well. The only thing I would add is some specifics around the cash balances. We talked about this a little bit in the opening remarks, but we have about $1.8 billion of cash at year-end. We'll add to that with the Barnett divestiture, the $770 million roughly. And so, as Dave articulated, we feel like we can accomplish our financial objectives both on the debt repurchase and with $1 billion share repurchase program that our Board has approved for this year. So, we feel really good about our ability to continue returning cash to shareholders via the dividend and the share repurchase this year.
Neal Dingmann:
That will make sense. Thank you, both.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Kevin MacCurdy of Heikkinen Energy Advisors. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
Kevin MacCurdy:
Hey good morning. Just looking at slide 16, do you have the oil mix breakdown between the Wolfcamp and the Bone Springs? And was the Spud Muffin mix different than other pads?
Jeff Ritenour:
And you're asking about the oil mix with regards to -- could you give us a little bit more detail? Specifically, are you looking for the quarter or just the projects that we brought on for the quarter?
Kevin MacCurdy:
Yes, the projects that you brought on for the quarter in slide 16 the overall oil rate.
Jeff Ritenour:
Okay. Yes. It's going to be about -- for the 30-day rates that we achieved in the quarter. It's going to be about 70% oil for those projects. Some are a little bit above that and some are a little bit above, but that's a good way to think about it.
Kevin MacCurdy:
And do you have the mix between the Wolfcamp and the Bone Springs just thinking about as the program goes more towards the Wolfcamp next year?
Jeff Ritenour:
Just scanning the numbers here, directionally they look about the same. So, they're around that 70% mark. So there's be -- big differentiation there on a 30-day rate or an EUR basis for that matter between the Wolfcamp and the Bone Spring.
Kevin MacCurdy:
Great. Thanks. And as a follow-up the Eagle Ford capital was a pleasant surprise. Do you have what the current well costs are there?
David Harris:
This is David Harris. They're about $6 million plus or minus.
Kevin MacCurdy:
Great. Thank you, guys.
Jeff Ritenour:
And just as a point of clarification. That's for about -- given the configuration of that development that's for about a 6,000 foot lateral.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Charles Meade of Johnson Rice. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
Charles Meade:
Good morning, Dave you and your whole team there. I have just a couple of questions on the Delaware. The first one of the big things last quarter which is -- seems like it's dissipated here was the concern around federal land. And so it seems like that has -- it's at least receded this part of the conversation. But can you give us your view whether it's a -- whether it's kind of receded as an operational concern for you guys and if it's something that we should continue to focus on?
David Harris:
Well, it's something that we're certainly aware of and we follow but we feel that we have a good plan and can adjust as appropriate. And I don't want to get into all the various legal arguments so -- on what could or could not take place. We've -- I can tell you we've studied it pretty extensively. And we think from a practical standpoint the most likely thing that could happen would be a slowdown in the permitting process with the BLM. And in preparation for that we are building an inventory of permits. The permits just so you know on federal land are actually two-year permits and then you can apply for a two-year extension on the permits. That's the max that anybody can get. And so we're building up our permit inventory if that eventuality would take place. Under the Obama administration, it took about 18 months or so to get a permit. Under the Trump administration, it's more like 6 months to get a permit and so we're preparing for that. But again that's one of the advantages of also having a multi-basin portfolio too is that we can reallocate capital away from federal lands. But in the meantime we're growing up the inventory if the permitting process does slow down. And again I know there's talk of other things that are more dramatic than that and we don't have time to get into all that from a legal discussion here on the call, but I think we've looked at a lot of those issues. And this is what we think is by far the most likely scenario that we should prepare for.
Charles Meade:
Got it. Thanks for that Dave. And then I just want to touch on one other base with respect to the shift to the Wolfcamp and the better capital efficiency. So I think you've said that you've that -- you made note earlier in the call about how you really worked hard to get your drilling times and your D&C costs down on the Wolfcamp and the Delaware Basin. But the other piece of that puzzle the well productivity can you just recap for us what if anything is changed or what you've learned over the last year or the last six months that is the other part of the puzzle that is going to power this step higher in capital efficiency as you shift to the Wolfcamp in the Delaware?
Dave Hager:
Yes. And first off Charles if you look at slide 18 you'll show -- we showed the drilling and completion costs. For the Wolfcamp wells we had $880 per foot. I think that compares extremely well against what some other people are talking about probably even today and that's again just the Wolfcamp. And if we looked at our entire well mix it would -- of the Delaware Basin it'd be even a much lower dollar per foot. And so just keep that in mind when you hear some other numbers out there that -- about the on the efficiency side. On the productivity side I think we're finding and we've learned a lot about the Wolfcamp. I'll tell you who can probably get a little bit more detail. David why don't you run with it here? I got a few ideas but I think you probably have better ones than I do. So take that off.
David Harris:
Yes. You bet. I think at the core of it over the last several years as we've increased our technical focus we are really doing integrated reservoir modeling from a multidisciplinary approach and what that's led to is a high-grade of landing zones and targets. And so I think that's probably -- as much as anything that's the biggest driver that you're seeing from a productivity standpoint is the higher-end technical work we're doing. We're targeting the best parts of these landing zones. Our geo-steering capabilities is something we've invested in over the -- several years ago starting several years ago keeping those wells in zone substantially through that entire lateral. All those things add up on a cumulative basis to kind of -- to drive the step change performance that you've seen from a productivity perspective.
Charles Meade:
Thank you for the color, David.
Scott Coody:
Well I see we're at the top of the hour. So I appreciate everyone's interest in Devon today. And if you have any further questions please don't hesitate to reach out to the Investor Relations team at any time which consists of myself and Chris Carr. Have a good day.
Operator:
This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Welcome to Devon Energy's Third Quarter 2019 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions]. This call is being recorded. I'd now like to turn the call over to Mr. Scott Coody, Vice President of Investor Relations. Sir, you may begin.
Scott Coody:
Thank you and good morning. Last night, we issued our earnings release, operations report and forward-looking guidance. Those documents can be found on our website at devonenergy.com. Joining me today on the call are Dave Hager, our President and CEO, David Harris, our Executive Vice President of Exploration and Production; and Jeff Ritenour, our Chief Financial Officer. Comments on the call today will contain plans, forecasts and estimates that are forward-looking statements under U.S. securities law. These comments are subject to assumptions, risks, uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ from our forward-looking statements. Please take note of the cautionary language and risk factors provided in our SEC filings and earnings materials. With that, I will turn the call over to Dave.
David Hager:
Thanks, Scott, and good morning, everyone. The third quarter is another one of exceptional execution for Devon across all aspects of our business. The bull strategy we announced earlier this year to transform to a high-quality, multi-basin U.S. oil company is working and it's working quite well. By sharpening our focus on our very best U.S. oil assets, the operating teams at Devon are delivering results that are exceeding expectations. Capital efficient and cost -- capital efficiency and cost reduction targets by a wide margin. This trend of excellence is now well established over multiple quarters and evidenced by several noteworthy accomplishments year-to-date. First, our returns-oriented focus and strong operational execution is translating into attractive rates of return. Year-to-date, the fully burdened rate of return on our capital program has exceeded 25%, and the cash return on total capital employed is also strong, trending well above 20%. The attractive returns we have delivered year-to-date are a function of the learnings we attained from appraisal work in prior years. By deploying these learnings to our highly focused development program in 2019, we have made substantial improvements in drilling and completion designs, reduced cycle times and increased well productivity through enhanced subsurface target selection. This step change improvement in execution has allowed us to raise our oil growth outlook 3 times this year while lowering our capital spending guidance. We have also acted with a sense of urgency to materially improve our cost structure. Our multiyear cost savings initiatives are now on pace to achieve more than 80% of our targeted $780 million in annual cost reductions by year-end. Importantly, our operational performance and cost reduction success have allowed us to generate free cash flow at levels that are ahead of plan. Coupled with asset sales, we are now on track to generate more than $3 billion of excess cash this year. With this abundant cash flow, we are delivering on our promise to reduce leverage and return capital to shareholders. Our balance sheet is exceptionally strong at 1x net debt to EBITDA, we have increased our dividend by 13% and are on track to reduce our share count approximately 30% by year-end. As you can see from these highlights, Devon is executing at a very high level on every strategic objective underpinning our strategy. Our unwavering focus on what we can control is delivering compelling financial and operational results that are demonstrating a positive rate of change unique among our competitors. Clearly, we have accomplished quite a bit this year-to-date, and there is plenty of excitement left in 2019 as our upcoming fourth quarter are full of catalyst-rich events. The Delaware is set to attain another meaningful step-up in oil production due to several high-impact projects coming online in Q4, headlined by our Cat Scratch Fever 2.0 project. There are also several good things happening in the Powder River Basin. We are raising our oil exit target rate -- exit rate target and our Niobrara appraisal work is unlocking a new resource play for us. The Eagle Ford will also be worth watching as we have officially reestablished operational momentum with our new partner and expect to bring online more than 25 high-rate wells in the fourth quarter. And lastly, with regard to our Barnett sale process, the bids are in and we continue to advance the process with interested parties. We expect to exit the Barnett by year-end at a price that is consistent with our view of the intrinsic value of the asset. Looking ahead to 2020, we have conviction in our multiyear plan and expect to progress the operational scale of our business and the highest return areas of our portfolio while delivering growth in free cash flow. With the significant improvements in capital efficiency we have experienced across our asset portfolio, we believe we can achieve the strategic objectives of our multiyear plan with substantially lower capital requirements compared to the original projection we laid out in February of this year. However, before I get into the details of our 2020 outlook, I want to share with investors our capital allocation priorities for the upcoming year. As always, Devon's top priority will be to fund maintenance capital requirements at quarterly dividend. Once this objective is met, the next step in our capital allocation process is to selectively deploy capital to high-return projects that will efficiently expand the cash flow of the business. Importantly, our plan meets all these capital allocation priorities at a low breakeven funding price of $48 WTI and $250 Henry Hub pricing. This ultra-low breakeven pricing point provides us with a substantial margin of safety to execute on our capital program while navigating through the inevitable commodity price volatility we will encounter. Should this volatility drive prices higher, we will remain disciplined, and the benefits of any pricing windfall above our conservative base planning scenario will manifest itself in higher levels of free cash flow for shareholders, not higher capital spending. Conversely, should we see price volatility to the downside, we have designed our operating plan to have the flexibility and agility to appropriately react to changes in the macro environment. Although we are still finalizing the details of our 2020 operating plan, I can tell you we are directionally planning on a capital program in a range of $1.7 billion to $1.9 billion. This level of activity is expected to generate oil growth of 7% to 9% compared to 2019 on a retained asset basis. When you account for the benefits of our ongoing share repurchase program, oil growth rates jump into the mid- to high teens on a per share basis. As I've already emphasized, our 2020 plan is designed to completely fund our capital requirements at an ultra-low WTI breakeven price of $48. Furthermore, this conservative plan provides significant torque to the upside as we can generate free cash flow of $400 million at $55 WTI pricing. With our updated outlook, I hope this one key message resonates that Devon's capital efficiency continues to trend meaningfully ahead of our multiyear plan. This is evidenced by our cumulative capital spending in 2019 and 2020, which is projected to decline by approximately $400 million or 10% less than the original plan we outlined this February. Importantly, our oil growth outlook over the same 2-year time frame remains on track with the original plan. While this is a great result, we are not content with the substantial progress we have made. The management team at Devon is laser-focused on optimizing returns and driving capital efficiency for our shareholders. I expect to have more positive updates on this topic in the near future. And the final item I'd like to address is a recent political rhetoric regarding drilling and fracking moratoriums on federal lands. Although we believe substantial obstacles exist for such an idea to be enacted into law, I do want to highlight that only 20% of our total company-wide leasehold resides on federal land. Within our core focus areas, our largest federal acreage holding resides in the Powder River Basin, which accounts for nearly 60% of our leasehold in that operating area. In the Delaware Basin, roughly half of our acreage is federal and our STACK -- Eagle Ford and STACK assets reside almost entirely on private lands. Regardless of how the politics of this issue will ultimately be resolved, I do want to emphasize that we have been building a deep inventory of federal drilling permits in our highest confidence development areas within the Delaware and Powder River Basin. Furthermore, our diversified multi-basin portfolio provides a flexibility and a depth of inventory within each of our core basins to be nimble and quickly pivot drilling activity to private leasehold that is highly economic and well positioned on the cost curve. While our diversified portfolio positions us well to adapt to a scenario such as this, we fundamentally believe that the basic notion of such campaign rhetoric is fraught with serious economic ramifications. This proposal would unfairly harm the communities that financially benefit from our business activity as well as impact the broader U.S. economy from an inevitable spike in energy costs that would unnecessarily limit GDP growth. That concludes my prepared remarks. I'd now like to turn -- introduce and turn the call over to David Harris. David was recently appointed Executive Vice President of Exploration and Production, replacing my good friend, Tony Vaughn, who is retiring from Devon after 20 years of service. Many of you know David. But for those of you who do not, David has been at Devon for more than a decade and is a seasoned and trusted leader who has been instrumental in strengthening Devon into the world-class U.S. oil company it is today. David?
David Harris:
Thank you for the introduction, Dave. Together with our talented operating teams here at Devon, I look forward to continuing to execute on the operating strategy that will drive the next financial growth and strong returns for the company. And given our third quarter results and outlook, we continue to hit on all cylinders. For my prepared remarks today, I will cover the asset-specific highlights that are driving this enterprise-level success. Beginning with our [indiscernible] asset in the Delaware, production continued to rapidly increase in the third quarter, growing 59% on a year-over-year basis. This strong production result was driven by a Leonard Shale oriented program in the quarter, which accounted for roughly half of the 34 new wells that commenced production. Based on learnings from prior projects, our operating teams have refined Leonard development spacing at around 6 wells per drilling unit primarily targeting the Leonard B interval. The execution of these Leonard developments was excellent. Results have exceeded type curve expectations with 30-day rates averaging 2,200 BOEs per day, of which 70% was oil. At an average cost of $7.5 million a well, the returns from this Leonard activity rank among the very best projects we have executed this year. Looking ahead, the setup for the Delaware Basin in the fourth quarter is very strong. Our diversified development activity across all 5 of our core areas in the state line area continues to progress right on plan, positioning the Delaware for another quarter of strong oil growth. In the aggregate, we expect to bring online more than 30 wells in the fourth quarter with the top catalyst being our 10-well Cat Scratch Fever 2.0 project. Cat Scratch 2.0 directly offsets the record-setting Phase 1 project immediately to the southeast in our world-class Todd area. While geologic mapping indicates that this thin spot thins a bit to the east, we do expect Cat Scratch 2.0 to be special and more prolific than the typical Second Bone Spring project. Lastly, in the Delaware, another noteworthy trend I would like to highlight is our improving capital efficiency. In the most recent quarter, our drilled and completed feet per day metrics in the Wolfcamp improved 45% and 65% year-over-year, respectively. This positive trend is very important as we expect the majority of our drilling activity to target the Wolfcamp formation next year. These steadily improving cycle times and costs will provide capital efficiency momentum heading into 2020. The next asset I would like to discuss is the Powder River Basin, one of the top emerging oil growth opportunities in North America. In the third quarter, our full-field development activity targeting the Turner, Parkman and Teapot formations in our Super Mario Area drove oil production 25% higher year-over-year. With this drill bit success, we are raising our 2019 oil exit rate growth target in the Powder River to more than 70% compared to 2018, up from our previous target of greater than 50%. This strong growth is accompanied by structural improvements to our capital efficiency as we attain operating scale in the play. Specifically, with the Turner formation, our top development target in 2019, we have achieved capital savings of greater than $1 million per well or nearly 20% compared to last year. Another critically important initiative underway in the Powder River is the delineation of our Niobrara shale potential in the basin. Our 200,000 net acre Niobrara position in the core of the oil fairway possesses repeatable resource play characteristics with the potential to be an important growth platform for Devon in 2020 and beyond. Over the past year, industry permitting has accelerated, more than 30 new Niobrara wells have been brought online around our acreage position in Converse and Campbell counties. Specifically for Devon, we are methodically focusing our delineation efforts in the southwest quadrant of our acreage called Atlas West, which has delivered the top oil rates in the basin. To date, we have brought online 8 operated wells that have averaged 30-day rates as high as 1,500 BOE per day with a 90% oil mix. Further progressing our confidence in this play are 2 spacing tests we commenced production on during the quarter in Atlas West. These spacing tests have shown positive results for the commercial potential of 3 Niobrara wells per section and the ability to develop the Niobrara independently of the deeper Turner interval. By the time of our next call in February, we expect to have several more appraisal wells online further delineating our Atlas West acreage position. With positive operating results we've obtained to date coupled with several encouraging industry data points, it is likely that the Niobrara will compete for increased capital allocation in 2020 with potential for us to double our drilling activity. And finally, our Eagle Ford and STACK assets are successfully fulfilling their respective roles in our portfolio, providing more than $600 million of free cash flow over the past year. In the Eagle Ford play, the key message I want to convey is that we have officially reestablished operational momentum with our new partner in the play. With peak completion activity for the year occurring in the third quarter, we expect a strong production response in Q4 with more than 25 Eagle Ford wells scheduled to come online. The impact from these high-quality wells is projected to increase our Eagle Ford net production to between 50,000 and 55,000 BOEs per day in the fourth quarter. We're still working on details for the 2020 plan with our partner, but our intent is to target an average of 3- to 4-rig lines. This level of activity would maintain our base production profile and advance our infill and redevelopment work in the lower and upper Eagle Ford while generating meaningful levels of free cash flow for the company. And lastly, in the STACK, our infill development program continues to deliver strong operational results. Our recent Meramec development space at 4 to 6 wells per unit are exceeding type curve expectations and we have lowered well costs by as much as 30%. We still have a deep drilling inventory in the overpressured oil window of the play. But given recent weakness in gas and NGL prices, we continue to reduce activity in the STACK. In fact, we've recently dropped to 0 rigs in the play as higher returns currently exist within other oilier projects in our portfolio. While STACK activity may be down, it is not indefinitely out. We are actively working to rejuvenate returns in the play to more competitive levels within our portfolio by lowering our D&C costs and through evaluation of partnership and drillco structures. While I have nothing specific to announce today, I can confirm that we're encouraged by ongoing discussions that are taking place with well-capitalized counterparties. And with that, I will now turn the call over to Jeff.
Jeffrey Ritenour:
Thanks, David. I'll spend my time today discussing the progress we've made advancing our financial strategy and detailing the future benefits of our plan. A good place to start is by highlighting our financial performance in the quarter, where Devon's earnings from continuing operations totaled $0.35 per share, exceeding consensus estimates. Operating cash flow for the quarter was $597 million, a 22% increase compared to the year ago period despite lower benchmark pricing. This level of cash flow exceeded capital spending, resulting in free cash flow of $56 million for the quarter. This strong financial performance was underpinned by oil production that exceeded the top end of our guidance, per unit LOE cost improving by 19% year-over-year, G&A and financing costs that were reduced by more than 25% versus the previous year and capital efficiencies that are trending well ahead of our plan. Turning to the balance sheet. Over the past 3 months, we've made significant progress strengthening our investment-grade financial position. In the quarter, we retired $1.5 billion of senior notes reducing our total debt to $4.3 billion and net financing costs by 25% year-over-year. Strategically, this debt reduction activity focused on near-term maturities to completely clear Devon's debt maturity runway until late 2025. We are carefully evaluating the next steps in our debt reduction program as we keep a close watch on interest rates and credit spreads. Overall, we are well on our way to achieving the $3 billion debt reduction target. With strip prices where they are today, we expect our net debt to EBITDA ratio to trend towards the low end of our 1 to 1.5x targeted range as we execute on our multiyear plan. In the third quarter, we were also very active with our share repurchase program completing $550 million of share repurchases in the period. Since the program began in 2018, we've repurchased 147 million shares at a total cost of $4.8 billion, and we are on pace to reduce our outstanding share count 30% by year-end. In addition to our share repurchase activity, we are also returning cash directly to our shareholders through our quarterly dividend, which we've increased by 50% since 2018. Year-to-date, share repurchases and dividends total over $1.7 billion, representing the cash yield to shareholders of 20% when compared to our current market capitalization. This follows repurchases and dividends in 2018 totaling $3.2 billion or a 35% yield to shareholders. Moving forward, we expect additional cash returns for our shareholders as our multiyear plan builds momentum. We will continue the use of the dividend and share repurchases to deliver free cash flow to our investors. As Dave touched on in his opening remarks, our 2020 plan is set up for attractive per share growth and free cash flow generation of $400 million at a $55 WTI price deck. To put this into context, the free cash flow we expect to generate in 2020 is equivalent to 5% of our current market capitalization. We believe this free cash flow yield is very competitive with other sectors in the broader S&P 500 Index that possess valuation multiples far in excess of Devon's supporting the continuation of our share repurchases into the future. And with that, I'll turn the call back over to Scott.
Scott Coody:
Thanks, Jeff. We will now open the call to Q&A. [Operator Instructions]. With that, operator, we'll take our first question.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions]. And your first question comes from the line of Arun Jayaram from JPMorgan.
Arun Jayaram:
I was wondering if you could discuss your plans in the Delaware Basin for 2020. I think this year, you're going to be placing under production about 117 wells. I wanted to see if you can give some thoughts on the program next year, lateral lengths and number of wells. And where do you see well cost on per lateral foot basis in the Delaware?
David Harris:
I'll start this off, Arun. It's a bit premature for us to provide any specific guidance as far as the amount of wells or even the cadence of the wells for 2020. We'll keep it to the preliminary guide that we provided at a high level in our earnings materials. But that being said, with regards to our allocation at the Delaware, it's certainly going to be our top funded asset by a wide margin. Proportionately, you would probably directionally expect that level of funding to be similar to what you're seeing this year. And obviously, the PRB and the Eagle Ford would be top funded assets as well within our portfolio. And as always, with the extended reach laterals, we continue to push towards having longer laterals every year. And if you saw our recent operations report, we're pushing towards 10,000 in virtually every area that we operate. So that's a good news story where the capital efficiency continues to improve.
David Hager:
Arun, this is Dave. I may just make one more comment on just the capital efficiency or the cost reduction side. If you go to, obviously, Slide 16 in the operations reported, it really shows how we're continuing to get drilling and completion efficiencies. So we think they are leading the industry in cost per foot -- drilling completion cost per foot, but we're not done. And I can tell you, the way we've guided and built into our 2020 guidance, we are still seeing that we think there's opportunity to do even better, and we're working on some things and having early results that back that up.
Arun Jayaram:
Great. And just my follow-up. On Slide 5, you guys present your updated guidance on the cost structure. Maybe for you, Jeff. I was wondering if you could give us a sense of how you expect the cost structure to trend for the new Devon in 2020. And maybe also provide some thoughts on how do you think realizations or differentials will trend for the three main product groups for the new Devon.
Jeffrey Ritenour:
Yes. Arun, you bet. Yes, I would say, generally speaking, we continue to expect per unit cost to trend lower as we move into 2020 really across the board from an LOE and a G&A standpoint. Obviously, the financing cost piece is going to be dependent on the timing of our debt repurchase. But again, that's another area where we would see a continued reduction in our cost structure as we move into 2020. As it relates to the realizations, I would -- as a general statement, I would say, I would expect it to look a little bit like this year. There's obviously -- it looks like there's going to be continued pressure on WAHA pricing coming out of the Delaware. But with the hedges that we have in place as well as some of the takeaway options we have there, we think we're going to mitigate that to some degree. Oil pricing coming out of the Delaware, we feel really good about. There's obviously plenty of pipeline capacity there to move the product. And we generally have a pretty balanced approach there, getting about -- 50% of our production is exposed to Gulf Coast pricing and the remainder would get exposed to that Midland area pricing, which right now looks pretty positive. It's actually trading at a premium relative to WTI.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Jeanine Wai from Barclays.
Jeanine Wai:
So my question is on 2020 capital efficiency in the corporate breakeven. You've reported a pretty low 2020 corporate breakeven of $48 WTI. And I believe the original 2019 breakeven was around $46 WTI, but that was at higher gas and NGL prices. So I'm just trying to get a sense of the year-over-year change in capital efficiency on an apples-to-apples basis. So if you were to normalize for pricing, what's the change in the corporate breakeven in 2020 relative to this year?
David Hager:
Well, I don't know if I have an absolute number normalized for pricing. I think the easiest way to think about it is look at Slide 9 in the deck where we're saying we're delivering all of the oil growth that we had originally planned over the 2-year time frame. But yet, we're doing it for $400 million less capital versus our original plan. And so obviously, on a normalized basis, if we went back to the original pricing, it would be below $46. I don't know if we have an exact number of what that may be.
Jeffrey Ritenour:
Yes. Jeanine, this is Jeff. I actually don't have the absolute number, but Dave described it well. And obviously, the biggest driver of that is the capital efficiency that we're seeing in the Delaware and really across the board in each of our different areas. But the Delaware, obviously, is the biggest component of our capital spend, and that's the biggest driver of that capital efficiency that we're seeing on a multiyear basis.
Jeanine Wai:
Okay. And then my follow-up, if I could just dig in to your last comment about the improvement. You mentioned that it's mostly getting driven by the Delaware. But how much of it is also for 2020 driven by just taking capital out of the STACK versus any well cost reductions or any cyclical factors? And I'm not sure -- I think your corporate breakeven is on a hedge basis as well.
David Hager:
Yes.
Jeffrey Ritenour:
Yes. Jeanine, that's correct. It does include the benefit of hedges, which, for 2020, is relatively minor at this point.
David Hager:
David Harris, I think you can answer that.
David Harris:
Yes. Jeanine, in terms of capital efficiency, to Jeff's point, we're seeing a lot of progress across the board in the Delaware specifically. On the drilling side, we've changed our wellbore design. We've gone to a slim hole design that we've modified to a slightly larger hole that's allowing much faster drilling times. On the completion side, we continue to relentlessly attack nonproductive time and flat time, moving equipment around and when we're doing zipper fracs. And as we talked to you about before on the facility side, the move from more complex and customized facilities to more standardized and modular designs has driven a real step change in our performance there. These improvements really aren't just limited to the Delaware though. In the Rockies, we continue to see cost reductions and expected to see material further cost reductions. As we've highlighted in the Turner, we've had a 20% improvement year-over-year and continue to believe that we're going to see similar rate of change in the Niobrara as we continue to derisk that position and move more into development mode. In the STACK, we're seeing capital efficiency improvements from more efficient infill spacing results and improved stimulation designs. Just on the completion side alone, we've seen a 15% decrease in our costs since the beginning of the year, so we're really encouraged by that. And then obviously, working with a new partner in the Eagle Ford. As you saw in the ops report, we've driven somewhere around $1 million per well out as we've debundled services and worked with more efficient vendors and applied best practices from other parts of our asset base to that asset go forward. So we feel good about the capital efficiencies we're seeing across the entire portfolio and really want to make sure you appreciate it's not just limited to what we're doing in the Delaware.
David Hager:
The only thing I'd add, Jeanine, is we are allocating a significant amount of capital to the Delaware and last to the STACK, but don't count the STACK out. I see some work that we're doing internally in the STACK. We're driving down the well cost. We are doing some outstanding technical work in there. And it's just because of the high-quality of our portfolio that we are allocating more to the Delaware. But the STACK is still there. It's not far away from getting funding and it's going to be a significant part of our portfolio for a long time to go, and you're going to see capital allocated to STACK in future years. And it's going to be good, strong returns.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Brian Singer from Goldman Sachs.
Brian Singer:
Philosophically, when you think about production growth, is 7% to 9% what you would see as the more normal oil growth rate if current commodity prices hold? Or do you see acceleration be backing up some of your comments on further cost reductions, reallocation to STACK or other areas?
David Hager:
Well, I think the main thing to understand is that we have the capability and the resource that we can deploy capital and generate strong returns at various growth rates. So we aren't really limited by the amount of resource and amount of opportunities with the amount of growth. It is really trying to maximize the capital efficiency of our program as well as to generate competitive growth, along with competitive free cash flow yield. And so we're trying to balance all of those variables. Given that, we think, as a company, that's appropriate for us to target high single-digit growth rates and mid-single-digit free cash flow yields. And that allows us to invest in very high-return opportunities. So we think, at this point, that's the right decision. Obviously, we're open to feedback from our shareholders on whether they think that's appropriate as well. But we think it's a strong program that's underpinned by very high-return projects. And we do, again, have the flexibility to grow at higher or lower rates, but we have no shortage of opportunities to do that for a long time.
Brian Singer:
Great. And then my follow-up is on your ops report, the Slide #18. You talked about the visibility of several hundred inventory locations in the Todd area. You talked to Cat Scratch Fever 2.0 in the prepared remarks. Can you talk to the characteristics of how the costs and the oil EURs from that broader inventory compare versus what you drilled in 2019 and what you expect to drill in 2020?
David Harris:
Brian, this is David. I think we expect it to continue to be an important growth driver for the foreseeable future. You've obviously got a highly charged reservoir there with stacked pay. As we've highlighted on Cat Scratch 2.0, we do see the pace in a bit to the east. And so we wouldn't expect copycat results all the way across it, but we think these are going to be some of the most compelling projects in the Lower 48 for the foreseeable future.
Brian Singer:
And can you remind us of the spacing assumptions that you have built in, in that area?
Scott Coody:
Brian, we're going to hand this over to John Raines, who heads up our Delaware Basin business unit.
John Raines:
Yes. Brian, for the Todd Area, we'll start in the Leonard. So we're just delineating the Leonard at this point, moving from appraisal into development. In other parts of the basin, we've seen six wells per section, and that's what we started with here, but we've got line of sight to upside to potentially 8 wells per section in the Leonard. Moving to the Second Bone. Historically, we've developed this on 4 wells per section, and that's what we've done from Central Todd going east. This is a bit of a geologically complex area as we move west and southwest in Todd. We're exploring six wells per section. Oxy actually offsets us to the west and they've been successful at six wells per section. And we've only just begun appraisal in the Wolfcamp here. We're testing multiple landing zones. We've actually tested three different landing zones in the Upper Wolfcamp. I think it's safe to assume that we'd feel good about two landing zones at four wells per section with a strong chance of upside to three landing zones at 12.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Subhash Chandra from Guggenheim Partners.
Subhasish Chandra:
I just want to clarify the return of capital commentary, make sure I understood it correctly. Want to understand sort of how you split the buckets, debt, share buybacks and dividend growth with and without the Barnett sale. In particular, I think the presentation alludes to more debt reduction by year-end. Is that presuming the Barnett sale? And then how do we split the return of capital to share buybacks beyond that point?
Jeffrey Ritenour:
Yes. This is Jeff. Yes. So no, it does not include the Barnett proceeds. So we are -- we've already obviously executed on $1.7 billion of the $3 billion debt target that we set earlier this year. We've got the cash and the balance sheet today to go ahead and execute the remainder of our $3 billion target. However, what we've seen happen over the last several months is interest rates go lower and the cost of debt go higher. And so we're going to be mindful of that and be opportunistic as we look to repurchase debt in the market. So we don't need those Barnett proceeds obviously to accomplish our debt targets going forward. Beyond that, that will allow us to utilize the proceeds in the Barnett for additional share repurchases, along with, obviously, the dividend that you highlighted. And certainly, the free cash flow that we expect to generate next year, that will have the potential to be devoted to further share repurchase programs.
Subhasish Chandra:
Got you. Okay. And a question -- I think operators are seeking to monetize water assets, seems to be the thing to do. You've highlighted 40 saltwater disposal wells, et cetera. I'm just curious if that is something you might do and what capacity and capacity utilization might be at the moment?
Jeffrey Ritenour:
Yes. This is Jeff. That's absolutely something we've looked at and we'll continue to monitor. We feel pretty good with our setup in the Delaware today. We like having control of those assets and the low cost that it brings to our cost structure going forward. But it's certainly something we've been monitoring and watching. And should the right opportunity arise, it's something we would consider. But frankly, where we sit today, we feel pretty good about our setup and certainly the cost structure that we've got.
Subhasish Chandra:
Could you share, by any chance, the sort of the disposal capacity and the utilization levels you might be running?
David Harris:
Yes. I think roughly 40 -- we've got 40 saltwater disposal wells out in the space. I think if you look at Slide 15, we kind of highlight some of the detail there, about 8 water reuse facilities. So any -- capacity is 120,000 barrels, is the throughput capacity of those facilities.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Devin McDermott from Morgan Stanley.
Devin McDermott:
So my first question, Dave, is actually following up on your response to one of the questions earlier around the STACK. You noted that it's close to competing for additional capital and likely receive it in future years. I guess first of all, as we think about 2020 with 0 rigs there, kind of what's envisioned in terms of cap allocation there, if any, in the preliminary 2020 plan that you provided? And then as we think about the outlook for the STACK going forward. Assuming no change in commodity prices, gas or NGLs, I guess, what would you need to see in order to make it competitive within the overall portfolio and start allocating more capital back?
David Hager:
Well, there's very little capital allocated in the current plan and 2020 is really more carry-in capital from 2019. We're working a number of initiatives. It's not just on the price side that we -- certainly a little bit higher gas and NGL prices would help. We're also -- our teams are doing some outstanding work on the cost side, on the drilling and completion costs and driving down those costs. We're also working on potential joint venture type opportunities there that could bring in some capital to drive higher capital efficiency into it. So there are several different angles that we're working this from -- in order to allocate capital in the future years. And obviously, we're being patient because we have such a strong portfolio. When we talk a lot about the Delaware, I think we need to talk about the Powder also and the success we're having in Niobrara and now that's going to drive more capital there and higher returns and very high returns there as well with the success we're having. And I can tell you, in the Eagle Ford also with our new partner, BP, they're very excited about what their -- or BPX, they're are very excited about this asset. I think they see it as one of their key cornerstones of the acquisition they did from BHP into one, they probably want to put a lot of capital too early on. So we just have a lot of high-return opportunities here in front of us. So we're just being patient to work out some of these other issues. And then I'm confident we're going to do it. And then the capital will come to the STACK when the appropriate time comes.
Devin McDermott:
Got it. Makes sense. Can you comment on -- go for it.
Jeffrey Ritenour:
Sorry, just a few more follow ups, specific thoughts on that. I would point out, as we've talked about this quarter, our lighter space infill projects are performing really well, exceeding both type curve and cost expectations. We do have a significant amount of inventory remaining in the heart of the play. So we do believe we still have a lot of economic resource there to develop. As Dave said, we've got a very high bar internally with the portfolio we have, but we're going to continue to try to bring those -- bring the value of those opportunities forward.
Devin McDermott:
Got it. Can you comment on the production profile or decline rate you've assumed through the 2020 guidance? Or is it still too early to say given some of the uncertainty there for the Powder specifically -- or sorry, for the STACK specifically?
Jeffrey Ritenour:
Yes. Devin, once again, we'll refrain from providing that at this point in time just because we still have some work on that front. But generally speaking, the last disclosure point we've had on the STACK is on the first year PDP decline. It was in the high 20% on a BOE basis. And it was on an oil basis, it was a high 30% range. So we'll recalibrate that number in conjunction with our reserve outlook -- with our; reserve report and our activity outlook for and have a more specific update for you here in February.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Neal Dingmann from SunTrust.
Neal Dingmann:
Great update on the Eagle Ford. My question is around that play. Beyond the 4Q and the 25 wells and obviously the growth you have there, I know you don't have the full 2020 out, but just how are you considering that play, as more of a -- still in the near term than a growth driver? Or is it more stable production with a more of a free cash flow generator?
David Harris:
Neal, this is David. I think the way we think about it within the context of our portfolio is the latter. It is an important free cash flow generator for us, and we believe we can maintain a profile there that's flat to some slight growth probably. We're -- we've regained operational momentum with our partner. We're going to bring on a big package of wells in Q4. And then as we move into 2020, we've talked about stabilizing somewhere around a rig count of 3 to 4 years. But we do still have quite a bit of resource in place and are testing infill and redevelopment concepts as well as things like the Austin Chalk. So we believe there's still a lot of good work to be done in the play.
David Hager:
Now just to reinforce that, what we're finding is there's still a lot of hydrocarbon in place and a lot of reservoir pressure there after our initial development activities take place. And so we're finding success with staggered wells within the Lower Eagle Ford as well as staggering them up in the Upper Eagle Ford between the Lower Eagle Ford completions. And so it's exciting how it's -- and there's -- it's just a great resource with a lot of pressure and a lot of opportunities that look [indiscernible] remaining. And then the Austin Chalk on top of it is probably a little less certainty as to how big that's going to be at this point. We're changing more to a linear gel type design on our completions there from slick water, and we're optimistic that, that can compete also.
Neal Dingmann:
Well, it certainly sounds like a lot of running room. And then moving over equally is positive. It sounds like, to me, I'm looking at Slide -- particularly on Slide 20. In the Nio, you've had some really interesting spacing tests there. I'm just wondering after -- specifically the two successful wells you've had there. Maybe could you just talk about just your thoughts just on overall spacing or at least in that area, how that's changed now after the success?
Jeffrey Ritenour:
You bet. Yes, one of the things that we're excited about in the Niobrara is that we're seeing consistent results across a really large area, both from our results as well as from offset operators. And if you think about the 200,000 acres that we talk about in our Atlas West and East area, we have currently -- we talked about the spacing test at three wells per section. We have plans to test four well per section spacing. We've seen offset industry participants testing up to 6 and 7 wells per section. And so we're going to learn more here throughout 2020 that's going to inform with success, what we believe, will be development mode beginning in 2021 for the Niobrara for us.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Charles Meade from Johnson Rice.
Charles Meade:
Actually, I have a question for Dave, but I'm going to pick up on Neal's point with that Niobrara first. As -- you've given us kind of this cartoon log on '20. And it looks like the B section is more of a classic or carbonate versus the, I guess, the overall shale package. Is that the case? And does that tie into your spacing of it just being 3 or 4 across a unit?
David Hager:
Well, there's a couple of what we think are really great advantages that we have in and around our acreage position relative to other areas in the Powder River Basin. The first is from a thermal maturity standpoint, we are clearly in the oil window throughout the geologic column here and that varies. We've done a thermal maturity mapping throughout the basin and that varies. And as you go further to north with some other operators, you're more in a gassy window in the Niobrara. The other thing that you're pointing out, Charles, is, yes, you do have more of a chalky interval in the particular part of the basin within the Niobrara. And the chalky interval is what gives some brittleness. And that interval is developed around our acreage position and around some other acreage immediately around us but is not developed everywhere in the Powder. And so we think that brittleness, where it doesn't exist in other areas, it's a little more ductile and done frac as well. Other places, it really fracks well on our acreage. So we think -- and that's one caution I'd give everyone about comparing our Niobrara results, everybody else's Niobrara results too because we do have these unique advantages of being in the oil window and have this chalky interval in there that frankly, we think ours is going to be better because of these geological characteristics. And so far, it's turned out to be true.
Charles Meade:
That's great detail, Dave. And then if I could go back to your prepared comments about this unfortunate topic, the jury about federal acreage. And I know you talked a little bit about some of your contingency about being able to go on to private lands. But you might not be surprised to know, I agree with you, it's a bad idea. But national politics are more and more like a demolition derby where wild things happen. And so I wondered if you could talk more about what are the obstacles to implementing a frac ban or a cessation of permits. And what time frame that would play out over in your contingency planning?
David Hager:
Well, you can rest assure that we've done a lot of background legal work around this issue. And I don't think it's probably appropriate to go into the details around that work on this call. But I think that at a high level, we would say that we think it is really fraught with serious legal ramifications, the ability to enact that in a short-term basis. And I think even more importantly though, obviously, is we just think it's going to unfairly harm the communities where we work, the states where we work. We work in an incredibly environmentally responsible manner, our own company does and our industry does. And all this is going to do is to shift -- the demand for the oil is not going to change. It's there on a worldwide basis. And all this would do is to shift the production to areas of the world that -- where there are not as high environmental standards followed. And so we just think that it is obviously going to be impactful, very impactful to the U.S. economy and as well as our national defense. So we think it's just obviously a bad idea from a number of fronts and it's not good for the U.S., it's not good for the world. And again, I'm not going to go through the details of the legal issues. But we've studied it pretty deeply, and we think there's a significant time frame to do anything from a purely legal standpoint. Obviously, from a regulatory standpoint, there's a possibility to slow things down. But we've obviously been thinking through that and we have a deep inventory permit to help mitigate that. The targets on -- I think the key point of all this is we have a clear path forward if this were to take place and we've been thinking about it.
Operator:
And your next question comes from the line of Jeffrey Campbell from Tuohy Brothers.
Jeffrey Campbell:
Congratulations on the quarter. Dave, I was just wondering, on Slide 17, can you add some color on the drivers of the multiyear capital shift to the Wolfcamp since your Leonard and Bone Spring results have consistently been so...
David Hager:
I didn't quite catch that. Could you repeat that, Jeffrey? I'm sorry.
Jeffrey Campbell:
Sure. On Slide '17, can you add some color on the drivers of the multiyear capital shift to the Wolfcamp since your Leonard and Bone Spring results have consistently been so successful?
David Harris:
This is David. I think we're seeing great results from all 3 of those main intervals. But I think the simple answer is really the capital efficiency. We see -- from development of the Wolfcamp formation, relative to that, the depth of resource and inventory. We have the various landing zones of the Wolfcamp. Those 2 things combined, I think, are really the main drivers of what you're seeing from some of that internal shift of where you'll see that capital deployed within the Delaware.
Jeffrey Campbell:
Okay. Great, that's helpful. And just -- I just was wondering if you could quickly give some of the technical differences between an Eagle Ford refrac versus a redevelopment oil.
David Harris:
Yes. It's a great question. I've actually asked the team that. The lingo is a little bit hard to follow. If you think about a refrac, it's just a traditional refrac where you're accessing stranded reserves there. Typically, what we do, the preferred approach -- we've tried a few different approaches, but we pump a liner refrac there to go in and restimulate near wellbore to access those stranded reserves. When we talk about redevelopment, those are new wells that would be drilled in the Upper Eagle Ford. So if you think about what we're doing today in our primary development sections, we're co-developing the Upper Eagle Ford with the Lower Eagle Ford. In units that were delivered prior to that shift, we got undeveloped Upper Eagle Ford. And so we're going back in and essentially, in some sense, kind of infilling Upper Eagle Ford wells, and those are the wells that we talk about as redevelopment.
Operator:
And your next question comes from the line of David Heikkinen from Heikkinen Energy.
David Heikkinen:
Kind of thinking through, and it seems like given your higher '19 Powder River basin exit rate and you're shifting more capital to your oilier Powder but definitely shifting less capital to your less oily STACK. But you've really got some increase to your 2020 oil CAGR in your hip pocket as it kind of flowed that through the model. I'm trying to lead the witness to 7% to 9% or higher, but it seems like that's a bit of a layup.
David Hager:
I don't know. I don't know. I'm trying -- I'm not sure with the sports analogy. You better -- not sure it's the right one, David. It's a layup, maybe a 15-foot jump shot. It's not a long 3 pointer.
David Heikkinen:
Okay, fair enough. Unless you're James Harden.
David Hager:
There you go. Well, then that's like a layup, yes. but I mean obviously, we feel confident. We've exceeded our expectations the last few quarters. So we're -- we feel really good about the ability to execute on that.
David Heikkinen:
And then just on the STACK, can you remind us how much of your capital is outside operated? And are you not consenting your current plan or thinking about not consenting in 2020?
David Hager:
Well, there's a -- the out -- and I don't have the exact number. The guys will have it for you here. But it's typically run higher than it has in any of the other business units. But the amount of the outside capital has actually -- our OBO capital has been declining this year significantly as other people move activity outside of the base as well. And typically, we try to find companies that are willing to participate in those projects. So we sell down our interest in those versus nonconsent. So we're trying to get some return on that as well.
Jeffrey Ritenour:
Yes. And David, just specifically, we had about $8 million of non-op capital in the third quarter in the STACK. And from a year-to-date perspective, it's been about $30 million or so, although we have seen downward pressure on that, as Dave highlighted, throughout the year.
Operator:
And there are no further questions at this time. Mr. Scott Coody, I turn the call back over to you for some closing remarks.
Scott Coody:
Well, I appreciate everyone's interest in Devon today. And if you have any further questions, please don't hesitate to reach out to the Investor Relations team, which consists of myself and Chris Carr. Thank you, and have a good day.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Welcome to Devon Energy's Second Quarter Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] I'd now like to turn the call over to Mr. Scott Coody, Vice President of Investor Relations. Sir, you may begin.
Scott Coody:
Thank you and good morning. On today's call, I will cover a few preliminary items and then turn the call over to our President and CEO, Dave Hager. Dave will provide his thoughts on the recent performance and direction of New Devon. Following Dave, Tony Vaughn, our Chief Operating Officer will cover a few operating highlights from the quarter. And then we will wrap up our prepared remarks with Jeff Ritenour -- financial outlook. Jeff will cover our financial highlights -- outlook for the 2019. Comments on the call today will contain plans, forecasts and estimates that are forward-looking statements under U.S. securities law. These comments and answers are subject to a number of assumptions risks and uncertainties, many of which are beyond our control. These statements are not guarantees of future performance and actual results may differ materially. Following our prepared remarks, we will take your questions. And with that, I will turn the call over to Dave.
Dave Hager:
Hello, I'm going to start over because of my microphone is not on. I apologize. Thank you, Scott, and good morning everyone. The second quarter is another outstanding one for the New Devon. Across the portfolio, our teams are delivering results that continue to exceed production and capital efficiency targets for successfully driving down per unit costs and maximizing margins. Before we get into details of the quarter, let's begin with a brief overview of what defines New Devon. For those of you that are new to the story, Devon is nearing the completion of its transformation to a U.S. oil growth company, allowing us to focus entirely on our world-class oil assets in the Delaware Basin, Powder River, Eagle Ford and STACK. The simplification of our portfolio unleashes the potential of our U.S. oil assets, which reside in a very best parts of the best oil plays in all in North America where we possess a multi-decade inventory of high return growth opportunities. With these advantaged attributes, New Devon is positioned to deliver sustainable growth and thrive in today's commodity price environment. This is evidenced by several value enhancing accomplishments year-to-date. First, oil growth continues to exceed our plan, and we are now raising our full-year production outlook for the second time this year to a 19% growth rate. This represents a 400 basis point improvement compared to our original budget expectations heading into the year. Importantly, the strong well productivity driving oil growth higher is complemented with a step change in capital efficiency, resulting in a $50 million reduction in our 2019 capital outlook. Keep in mind, our 2019 capital budget already had $200 million in efficiencies built in it compared to 2018. So far this year, we have brought online 20% more wells for 10% less capital compared to 2018. Anyway you slice it, these are outstanding results. We have also taken action to materially improve our corporate cost structure. Our operating G&A cost savings initiatives are exceeding the plan by a wide margin and now we're on pace to achieve more than 70% of those $780 million annual savings target by year-end. The impact of the savings plan is massive with a PV10 benefit over the next decade of more than $4 billion. This is equivalent to roughly 25% of our current enterprise valuation. This capital and cost discipline translated into free cash flow in the quarter. And coupled with our accretive sale of Canada, we have achieved nearly $3 billion of excess cash inflows this year. With these inflows, we are delivering on our promise to reduce leverage and return capital to shareholders. In fact, our leverage has now declined by 80% from peak levels and we returned more than $4 billion of cash to our shareholders through dividends and buybacks. All in all, it has been a fantastic start to the year as we have executed a very high level on every single strategic objective underpinning the New Devon. And given the commodity price variability we must navigate through in this space, I firmly believe the investment of appeal of New Devon is further distinguish by our strategic approach to the business. We all know there has been some messy and surprising results in the industry of late, but I want to be clear about our unyielding commitment to excellence, discipline and consistency of results. New Devon's financial driven model is designed to deliver peer-leading returns on invested capital, to generate sustainable cash flow growth and growth rates in cash flow, and to return increasing amounts of cash to shareholders. And as you can see from our recent results, this model is working. The key to this progressive and balanced operating model is a quality and multi-basin diversity of New Devon's asset portfolio, which has some of the lowest breakeven points in the E&P space. This asset quality and low-cost advantage allows us to build a margin of safety into our operating plans, which is demonstrated by our ability to fully fund our capital program at less than $50 WTI pricing, even after accounting for the recent weakness in gas and NGL strip pricing. With our multi-basin diversity, we have the capability to dynamically allocate capital between opportunities to optimize our rate of return. This flexibility is evident with our recent redeployment of capital from the STACK to higher return opportunities to Delaware and Powder River. Lastly, to provide an additional level of certainty to our operational execution, we are proactively managing commodity risk through an active hedging program and taken steps to further fortify our balance sheet by aggressively reducing leverage ratios, less than one times net debt to EBITDA. Put it in another way, our operations are now backstopped by a fortress balance sheet. I want to end my prepared remarks today with a few preliminary thoughts on our outlook for next year. As I mentioned earlier, Devon is trending ahead of plan on all the operational objectives supporting our three-year outlook, and we have significant operating momentum heading into next year. While it is still a bit too early to provide any detailed targets for 2020, I can tell you based off trajectory of our business, I expect efficiencies to continue to lower our breakeven capital funding levels and to further improve our corporate level returns. Furthermore, given our low maintenance capital, we have the substantial flexibility to deliver a desirable combination of both free cash flow and highly competitive oil growth rates at today's strip pricing. More specifically at the asset level, we plan to allocate more capital to the Delaware to better leverage the well productivity and capital efficiencies this franchise asset is delivering, and we will continue to tailor STACK activity to the current commodity price environment. As our planning process firms up, we will provide more specific details on our 2020 outlook this fall. And with that, I will turn the call over to Tony Vaughn, our Chief Operating Officer.
Tony Vaughn:
Thank you and good morning. As Dave touched on New Devon's operations are hitting on all cylinders and I'm quite pleased with the positive business momentum we continue to demonstrate in the second quarter. Each asset in our portfolio is executing at a very high level fulfilling its respective role in our portfolio. I am quite proud of the results the organization has generated and the strong performance as a result of the quality of our people and they're are delivering results. For today, I will focus my comments on our Delaware Basin operations, which are the driving force behind New Devon's growth year-to-date. Our high margin production in the Delaware continue to rapidly advance in the second quarter, growing 58% on a year-over-year basis. The key driver of this robust growth is the high impact wells we have consistently brought online that rank among the very best in all of the industry. In the first half of the year, we commenced production on more than 50 new wells, diversified among the Leonard, Bone Spring, and Wolfcamp formations that achieved average 30 day rates of around 2500 BOEs per day. These high impact wells reflect the quality of our underlying asset base, our staffs' top tier planning and operating capabilities, and our willingness to deploy cutting-edge technologies to improve well productivity, and capital efficiency in the economic for this world-class play. Looking ahead, as we transition more activity through the Wolfcamp which will account for as much as 65% of our program in coming years, I'm confident in making the prediction that our Wolfcamp well productivity and capital efficiency will improve from the impressive baseline we have established this past year. Furthermore, with the substantial amount of acreage trades we have completed in the state line area, our future results will benefit from higher working interest in these high impact operated areas and from less exposure to certain lower returning non-operated activity scattered across the basin. With this world-class leasehold position in the Delaware, our team has successfully transitioned to full-field development across a significant portion of our core areas. Our outstanding results year-to-date are benefiting from the learning's obtained from the appraisal work we performed in prior years. Through this appraisal activity and our work in other plays across the company, we have a strong understanding of the subsurface that allows us to identify the best landing zones, understand parent-child dynamics, along with the appropriate well density per section and deploy optimize completion designs to capitalize on that knowledge. Importantly, through this process, we have learned how to better size and scale these projects to optimize capital efficiency and returns. Our go-forward development projects are striking a healthy balance between present value and rate of return delivering an optimal outcome for shareholders. Overall, as our results indicate, we are well up on the learning curve and are very confident in our Delaware asset. Specifically in the Wolfcamp formation, which will be our most active target going forward, we have a very good understanding of lateral and vertical connectivity. We have settled on a development spacing of about 4 to 8 wells per landing zone depending on the oil column, pressure connectivity, and the subsurface variability in Southeast New Mexico. Our recent success with our Fighting Okra and Flagler projects are examples of this pragmatic spacing approach with strong returns. Importantly with our significant acreage position, we have the depth of inventory to deliver top tier results in the Delaware Basin for many years to come. At today's drilling pace, the currently identified 2,000 higher return risk locations we have identified equate to 16 years of operated inventory. This inventory is a result of a detailed subsurface evaluation across our entire position rather than generalized acreage math. With a depth of STACK play resource across the Delaware, we expect our high return inventory to continue to expand as we capture additional efficiencies and further delineate the rich geologic column across our entire acreage footprint. Now, I'd like to transition to a story line that's often overlooked, but critical to our recent success in the Delaware and that is the work we have performed in the field to improve the profile of our base production decline. So far year-to-date, our gross operated base production has outperformed our budgeted expectations by approximately 10%. This dramatic outperformance was accomplished through the use of leading-edge data analytics that has helped to minimize downtime in the field. We have also successfully boosted existing well productivity through proactive gas lift, rod pump optimization while reducing maintenance cost. This thoughtful and innovative work is delivering some of the best returns and value uplift in the portfolio with minimal cost. Lastly, I want to conclude my remarks in the Delaware by highlighting the good work that we have performed to maximize the value of our barrels produced. Beginning with our oil realizations, a major victory for us has been the avoidance of price deducts associated with the new West Texas Light index. We have leveraged our operating scale and acreage dedications in the area to attain multiyear contractual guarantees that ensure we receive Midland WTI pricing with gravity protection up to 60 degree API. Coupled with a good work of our marketing teams have done in the hedging and firm transport front, our light oil realizations are near WTI pricing levels and importantly the regional gas price weakness experienced by the market has been mitigated by our attractive basis swap position. On the cost side of the equation in the Delaware, we have also been able to lower expenses and enhance our margins through the scalable field level infrastructure our teams have built out over the past several years. This foresight has helped us reduce per unit LOE costs by more than 60% from peak levels. One of the most meaningful sources of LOE savings is the extensive water infrastructure we have proactively built out. We now have nearly all of our produced water connected to pipes. The infrastructure is fully integrated with 8 recycling facilities, 40 operated saltwater disposal wells, and several third party water systems. With this infrastructure, we avoid the extremely high expense of trucking in the remote desert of Southeast New Mexico that can easily exceed a couple of dollars per barrel and we're able to source over 80% of our operational water needs from produced water at very low cost. The bottom line is, is that the hard work and thoughtful planning from our operations is paying off, and our positions allow us to capture additional value per barrel that many of our competitors cannot. And with that, I will now turn the call over to Jeff Ritenour.
Jeff Ritenour:
Thanks, Tony. I'd like to spend a few minutes today discussing the progress we've made advancing our financial strategy and briefly provide context on several key metrics that are improving within the updated 2019 outlook we issued last night. A good place to start today is with our improving financial performance for the quarter. Our operating cash flow increased 23% year-over-year to $623 million. This level of cash flow fully funded our capital requirements and generated nearly $60 million of free cash flow for the quarter. With the free cash flow, our business generated coupled with the proceeds from the sale of Canada, Devon's cash on hand increased to $3.8 billion at the end of June. Subsequent to quarter end, we utilized a portion of this cash on hand to redeem $1.5 billion of low premium senior note that were due in 2021 and 2022. With this redemption activity, Devon has now completely cleared its debt maturity runway until late 2025. Given our strong liquidity, we expect to reduce additional debt in the second half of 2019. We will finalize the size and timing of our debt reduction activity in the near future, but we are well on our way to achieving our debt reduction goal in addition to debt reduction. Another key financial priority is our ongoing share repurchase program, which is the largest program by a wide margin in the E&P space. Since the program began in 2018, we have repurchased a 125 million shares at a total cost of $4.4 billion and we are on pace to reduce our outstanding share count by nearly 30% by year-end. To advance our share repurchase activity in the second half of 2019, we expect to utilize cash on hand to reach our goal of $5 billion by year-end. Any upside from higher commodity prices or asset sales would be earmarked for additional return of capital to shareholders. I'll wrap up my comments today by covering a few key guidance items from our updated 2019 outlook. This updated outlook reflects the improvements of our retained business -- excuse me, reflects the improvements our retained business has achieved year-to-date and incorporates the impact of Canada's restatement to discontinued operations. On the production front, as Dave touched on earlier, our light oil growth is running at least 400 basis points ahead of our original budgeted expectations. For the second half of the year, we expect the strongest oil growth to occur in the 4th quarter, driven by the timing of activity in the Delaware. This production profile positions us with strong volume momentum heading into 2020. Importantly, we are delivering this incremental oil growth with better than expected well productivity and capital efficiency. Because of this positive trend, we are lowering the midpoint of our capital spending outlook in 2019 by $50 million to a range of $1.8 billion to $1.9 billion. We also continue to make substantial progress on the cost reduction front. With a scalable growth we are achieving in the Delaware and the Powder River, coupled with the benefits of Canada exiting the portfolio, we project total company-per-unit LOE cost to improve 15% versus our original budget. Our G&A initiatives have also delivered a steady cadence of successful cost reductions year-to-date. We estimate that we have captured approximately $190 million of overhead savings to date on a run rate basis. And this momentum is projected to reduce G&A by more than 15% versus our original budget. With the progress we've made year-to-date, we are well on our way to attaining more than 70% of our $300 million, 3-year savings goal by the end of 2019. Shifting the interest expense with the $1.5 billion debt redemption we completed at the end of July, we are lowering our net financing cost forecast by approximately $50 million to a range of $250 to $270 million. All in all, we are executing at a very high level on the key financial objectives underpinning our 3-year plan. We have significant operational momentum heading into 2020, and we are positioned to deliver free cash flow, and attractive growth. With that, I'll turn the call back over to Scott for Q&A .
Scott Coody:
Thanks, Jeff. We will now open the call to Q&A. Please limit yourself to one question and a follow-up. If you have further questions, you can re-prompt if time permits. With that operator, we'll take our first question.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] And our first question comes from the line of Arun Jayaram from JP Morgan. Your line is open.
Arun Jayaram:
Yes, good morning. You mentioned that you're now in call it pure development mode on the Delaware Basin. So I just wondering if you could talk about some of the implications for capital efficiency wise. I perceive that your capital efficiency has improved but maybe give us some more details on what's going on there and also maybe you could shed some light on the acreage, [indiscernible], supplies that you could get, some acreage in that neck of the woods and Todd, which has been really productive rock?
Dave Hager:
Good morning, Arun. This is Dave. I'm going to start off with just a summary comment here and then we'll turn over to John Raines, who is our Delaware Basin, Vice President of that business unit to give some detailed comments about what you asked. What I think that is, you hit on the key, one of the key elements about New Devon that we have to continue to emphasize, is that in the Delaware Basin and -- most of our plays. We have moved out of an era where we're doing quite a bit of the appraisal work and moving into more, a much higher percentage that's pure development work. That leads to increased capital efficiency, lowering of the well cost, growing the best wells in the best zones, higher rates. It also obviously allows us to lower the well cost, as we have consistent capital, our consistent rigs in the same area. And so you see higher quality results and you see very consistent results. We've demonstrated that clearly with the first two quarters of results in 2019, and we will continue to deliver on that in the future. So with that, I'll turn it over to John to answer more details about what that means.
John Raines:
Yes, this is John. Thanks, Arun, for the question. It's a good one, it's one, it's a story I'm pretty excited to tell. I think to properly tell the story, I'll take you a little bit back to 2018. So if you go back to 2018, specifically with respect to our Wolfcamp, we really leaned in on developing two mile laterals and when we did that, we had a lot of learning's from these two mile laterals. And I'll talk about some of those specifically. Drilling as you noted in the ops report, we've improved our performance by 20% on drilled feet per day. These improvements are largely driven by moving away from a pure slim hole designed to a slightly larger hole and casing sizes. The result has seen better tool reliability that are ROP or rate of penetration and significantly reduced NPT. On completions as noted, we've seen about a 40% improvement in feet per day. The real driver here is much more consistent work with our dedicated frac crews, and we've also engineered certain more prevalent problems out of the system. To date, we've seen fewer horsepower, wireline, [indiscernible] sleeve issues. That again we're much more prevalent in the past and this has significantly reduced our NPT. I'd also note on completions that we've reduced our flat time. So our flat time is essentially the time it takes to swap wells on a zipper job or to rig up and rig down. And to say that differently, we've basically substantially improved our onsite logistics. And then finally, for facilities, we've successfully deployed our first standardized train design on our Flagler project versus our 2018 baseline, this project delivered facilities at a per well cost of roughly 50% versus our baseline. This new designs really brought some much-needed standardization to our facilities and the simpler designed as a result in less equipment and associated cost, much lower construction costs, and other supply chain savings. I'd say if you had to look at our total costs, in addition to just the cycle times we've mentioned in our operations report, by year-end, we feel pretty good that we're going to be able to reduce our non-Wolfcamp wells 10% to 15% total. And that does include some larger completion designs on some of those wells. And if we look at Wolfcamp, we're really striving towards a 15% to 20% type of reduction. So, I'm very proud of the work that the team has done there.
Arun Jayaram:
Acreage trade?
John Raines:
Yes, Arun. I think your second question was around acreage trades, and I bet you're more specifically referring to the 5500 acres at Todd. And so this is also a pretty fun story to tell. And I think it shows how much success you can create by having a really intentional effort. So the 5500 acres, again to go back in time has to be considered as a multi-year effort. If you really go back to the Todd area. This was an area that the team identified early on as being a good zip code. I think I've referred to the parent Boundary Raider well being drilled several years ago, even on a previous call. So it was really at that point that the team got pretty creative about consolidating our position here and upping our working interest. As for the 5550 acres itself, this is really a product of the team being creative in the land team in particular, being able to execute on our consolidation strategy. This acreage did not come to Devon via one or two large deals, rather this acreage came to Devon over the course of three years and over the course of more than a dozen trades. These trades ranged in size from a smallest 40 acres to as large as 2,000 acres. So you can see that the team has really been effective in the hand-to-hand combat out here.
Arun Jayaram:
Great. And just my follow up is that you guys have put out previously called the 12% to 17% I believe, the oil growth target from the New Devon properties. This morning or last night you highlighted more capital going to the Delaware from the STACK. So I was just wondering if you could maybe give us a little bit more thoughts on initially how you're thinking about how much capital would shift from the Delaware. Is it rig line or two or just maybe some broad thoughts on that?
Dave Hager:
Well, we're still working through the details of that. And we're doing a lot of modeling work on our 2020 capital program to determine what provides the optimum efficiencies. But we did direction, in my comments I did directionally guide that Delaware capital will continue to increase in 2020 and obviously rightfully so when you see the outstanding results that we're delivering there. And we are delivering good results by the way in other parts of our portfolio. It's not that others are failing, but yes this is succeeding so well and that's why we're able to increase our production guidance and lower our capital guidance. So we don't -- I can't give you specifics at this point. We're continuing to look at various scenarios and obviously it's a great place to be. We'll get an even more capital efficiencies than you originally estimated to think about what the options you have when it comes to our 2020 capital program.
Arun Jayaram:
Great, thanks a lot, Dave.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Doug Leggate from Bank of America. Your line is open.
Doug Leggate:
Thank you. Good morning, everybody. Dave, I'm not sure who wants to take this one, but just looking at the cash margin disclosure that you've given us, which is obviously very, very helpful. The highest margin in the portfolio right now is in the Powder River. So I'm wondering if you can just give us an update there as to how that translates to returns at the well level because obviously embryonic play one assumes the well costs are still being optimized and just discuss how you see the evolution of that play as it relates to the risk inventory and just how relative incremental capital allocation might evolve towards the Powder over time?
Dave Hager:
Yes, you're right, Doug and good morning. It's the -- the Powder has the highest oil percentage of any of the plays that we're involved in; and so that play does have very high margins associated with it. And obviously, it's a very sensitive than to oil prices that earns, that you generate on that play. We're extremely pleased with the results we're getting so far in the Powder where we've now entered into the full development mode on the low risk Turner play. That will constitute the bulk of the growth that we're going to realize over the next three years. And then we're excited as well about the Niobrara. We have not said too much about our first Niobrara well. We're just following that well back at this point, but so far so good I would say. One thing to be cautious about by the way on the Niobrara is what you really can't compare our Niobrara to other industry players' Niobrara out there, we are at the, from a thermal maturity standpoint, we are in heart of the oil window throughout the geologic column, including the Niobrara on our acreage, and that is not the case for some of the industry, other industry players that have a much more gassy count Niobrara. So we're excited although again that's the smaller part of our overall growth story over the next three years. But the returns are very competitive with those in the rest of portfolio and that's why we have four rigs working out there right now.
Doug Leggate:
Just on the risk inventory Dave, what's, what would you say is the current gross inventory if you like versus the, I guess you are 100 locations that you've identified to date.
Dave Hager:
I'm going to turn it over to give you to Wade Hutchings to give you the inventory number.
Wade Hutchings:
Good morning, Doug. As you see in our main inventory disclosure slide, the high quality risk inventory for the Rockies are sitting about 650 gross operated well. And again, I'll just remind you on all of that inventory, we've stripped out any non-operated locations. We've also stripped out any risk locate, our unrisked locations and we're just focused in on those locations that we think we can drive high quality returns on. The inventory is a balance between all of those targets that Dave noted a moment ago, including some very high return Parkman and Teapot locations. And so when you look at it from an unrisked basis, the numbers obviously get a lot bigger. Those are very kind of preliminary risks high quality locations. When we look at it from a total unrisked basis, we see several thousand Rockies operated locations as potential. And again, we're in the middle of trying to unlock that today with some of the appraisal work we're doing in Niobrara. We would note also there are several other prospective targets that other companies are testing. We're watching that very closely as well.
Doug Leggate:
I appreciate the answers, guys. My follow-up hopefully is a quick one Dave that just the reallocation of capital from the stock. And I guess the Eagle Ford is back to seeing some activity it seems. Can you just clarify are these, should we think about these assets just as ex growth or absolute decline in particularly in the stock? On a similar context, just what are the triggers that might cause you to change activity levels if oil stays under pressure?
Dave Hager:
Doug and for everyone, I think it's important to understand that we really have a dynamic capital allocation model, and what that means is that we really look at what are generating the highest returns throughout our portfolio. And we obviously take into account commodity price, commodity prices when we make that decision. We have the ability with the inventory levels that we have to grow any of the assets if we so choose. But we don't think about it so much about whether or not we are growing an individual asset or not. We allocate our capital out of what we consider to be the highest return opportunities and in a growth as an out, as an output of that given where we think we're getting the highest returns. If we were less dynamic frankly with our capital, we could just, we could allocate it more proportionate to all of our plays so that they all grow because we have the inventory to do that, but we don't think that's the way to optimize the value of the company. So with this, obviously we've had some weakness in natural gas and NGL prices here. And with that, we've made the decision to reduce the activity somewhat in the STACK and to reallocate that capital out to the Delaware and the Rockies given the higher returns in this point.
Doug Leggate:
Again, I appreciate the answers Dave. Thanks a lot for your time.
Dave Hager:
Thank you.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Jeanine Wai from Barclays. Your line is open.
Jeanine Wai:
Hi, good morning everyone.
Dave Hager:
Good morning, Jeanine.
Jeanine Wai:
Good morning. My first question is on capital allocation. Can you just discuss how you weighed whether to reallocate that $50 million in STACK CapEx versus just taking it out of the schedule and reducing the 2019 budget by $100 million instead of $50 million? And I know it's a pretty small amount. But I mean there's a lot of good things going on. You're on track to meet or exceed your oil production targets, you raised oil guide already twice this year. You've got the 3-year plan that already has a competitive growth rate. And I guess one can argue that the market is not paying for growth, but for discipline. So I just wanted to understand how you're thinking about this because I know spreadsheet math is different from how things work operationally.
Dave Hager:
I'm glad you appreciate that. And yes, it's -- I think you could make the argument frankly not just about that $50 million. But you can make the argument about capital in general. But as the -- what the right levels of capital are in the program, we did it to optimize the capital efficiencies that we have in both the Delaware and the Powder River Basin to optimize returns. It's to optimize the interplay between drilling rigs and completion crews and to maximize the efficiency, between those. And so we felt that that was going to maximize returns in the right decision to do. I think it's a totally separate discussion that you can ask of us or everyone else, every other E&P companies what their right level of capital allocation is and what's the right mix of competitive free cash flow yield and growth. And certainly, we think we're in a position to deliver on both of those and that's certainly what we're looking at going forward into 2020.
Jeanine Wai:
Okay, great. And then, that's very helpful. Thank you. My second question in terms of next year. I know you're not giving any detailed guidance or anything right now. But can you talk about generally what your appetite is for activity in the STACK if strip pricing holds and I'm pretty sure this isn't a target. But how much activity is required just to hold that asset flat these days, and then are there any overriding considerations in terms of having to maintain a specific minimal amount of activity in the play? It's pretty mature, so I'm guessing there is no real HPT requirements or anything, but you might have some other transport agreements or something?
Dave Hager:
No, there is no firm transportation to drive that capital allocation, there is no held by production issues at all. It is simply optimizing returns and again it's optimizing returns across the entire portfolio. We are currently having the bulk of our activity in the, what we call the volatile oil portion of the play and those returns and we've -- on our revised type curve that we put out previously, we're meeting or exceeding those and are driving down the cost of those wells extremely efficiently, noticed returns compete for capital with everything else in the portfolio. Obviously, as we move outside of that in future years more into what would be considered the gas condensate window and even perhaps the dry gas window, the resources there, the resource is very strong and the opportunities are there. But with the recent weakness in natural gas liquids, and natural gas prices, that's why we reallocated the $50 million out, and we're looking very closely at any activity outside of that, and considering whether we want to bring in joint venture partners on a small or a larger scale to help us with any activity there to really dramatically increase our capital efficiency and make those opportunities to compete for capital.
Jeanine Wai:
Okay, great. That's very helpful. Thank you very much.
Dave Hager:
Thank you.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Paul Grigel from Macquarie. Your line is open.
Paul Grigel:
Hi, good morning. Going back to the commentary on the base decline mitigation was interesting. I was wondering if you could talk about further upside that might be seen through that if that's been applied to other plays within the portfolio and then maybe the overall impact to the corporate decline rate that could have either initially or over time.
Dave Hager:
Yes, Paul, let's say that's an area of focus that we've put in the company probably about 4 to 5 years ago. And I think over time we've described our commitment to being data driven. During that process, we've installed automation in virtually all of our producing assets across the portfolio. We have what we call decision support centers in each of our producing areas. They're manned 24-7 generally. There is a source of all this data driven work, we're actually now look, having the ability to look at information on all of our artificial lift equipment, and we can spot pending trouble on some of our artificial lift pumps and gas lift operations. We have the ability to predict failure as opposed to just running towards failure. We have the ability to bring the replacement pumps to location, have the crews available and ready to go before wells actually go offline. So the guys have done a really good job of incorporating the stop process across the organization. You heard us talk a little bit or described what is going on and the good work that the Delaware Basin team is doing. A lot of that same work is happening across the area, other areas as well. So we think it's material to the business as John describe having 10% uplift in our base operations, with virtually very little cost associated with that is an increment, I'm not sure all companies appreciate and then focus on. So, I appreciate your interest in that as well. It's a good quality work by our operating people.
Paul Grigel:
Definitely, definitely interesting topic. And then I guess maybe changing a little bit to 2020 and just kind of the capital efficiency that Dave, you mentioned earlier. As you guys look going forward on 1Q you were very clear that you would not outspend capital this year and that's clear in the reduction. As we move to 2020 with ongoing capital efficiencies, what are some of the sources that you guys see for additional upside that you can drive either on the capital side or on the operating cost side into 2020?
Dave Hager:
Well, obviously, as we move into full development mode, we are going to continue to drive down the costs on the capital side.. I think John Raines already outlined of how he sees additional cost improvement in the Wolfcamp. And I would anticipate that we are going to see drilling and completion cost improvement throughout the portfolio, because when you're in full development mode, it's just by nature that you get better and better as you do more repetitive type activities. So, I would anticipate that you would see that even more. Tony, I don't know if you want to answer a little bit on the LOE side. But I think the good news, one of the good news things I can add here you'll find a little bit is a lot of our infrastructure is in place and so we are able to add barrels with very little incremental cost, because of all the vast majority of the infrastructure is already in place for our, once we increase our production.
Tony Vaughn:
Yes, I guess right Dave. And I think it even goes back prior to that is we've been very committed to building contiguous acreage positions in all of our core areas and being in the heart of the play. While that is just kind of background work, John described a little bit of that in the Delaware Basin. But we've done a really good job of coring up our operations in all the areas that we work. That was purposeful. It allows us to build a more integrated infrastructure system there. We're continuing to optimize our drilling work and showing some great work there you see hence of that across our operating report that we've published where the drillers are reducing drill times, are doing that through new design work that they're doing and less trouble time that we've had in the past. We're also in the process of seeing a lot of technology and innovation on the completion side of the business. We're tending to stretch out our stages, reduce volumes, increase the number of clusters, and we've even got technical guys that are working on very detailed work on the size and placement of perforations. And that is ability for our guys to both manage cost and deliver probably some of the best returns in the industry as shown on one of our exhibits. So, there is continuing to be a lot of very thoughtful technical work across the business. We're also doing this on the facility design work. We're standardizing and marginalizing all of our equipment there. So, almost every component of our operations, we're seeing some really thoughtful granular work as delivering the last couple of quarter's outperformance that I think you're seeing there. Coupled with that, we have a supply chain group that is doing some really good quality work. I'm not sure Jeff, you may want to describe a little bit about the...
Jeff Ritenour:
Yes, Tony, I was going to add some commentary. On top of all the great operational things that Tony highlighted, the teams are working and the efficiencies that we're gaining, on top of that as you look forward to 2020 and 2021, the supply chain group along with our operations teams have done a great job of driving down price on the services that we're procuring. In fact, we're working in kind of a deflationary environment at the moment and expect that to continue for the, for the second half of this year. So that's going to be a nice tailwind for us potentially as we move into 2020 and 2021 relative to the expectations that we had for our 3-year plan Initially.
Paul Grigel:
That's helpful. I just want to clarify and real one, real fit, real fast excuse me, on development mode. Is there any risk to lumpiness on production or is it sufficiently spread out?
Dave Hager:
It looks like we're going to have a really strong Q4 and that's going to be based on the higher, slightly higher capital spend that we have in Q3. That is going to drive really high production there. The only concern I've heard from our, seen from a couple of reports as well, does that drive down on 2020. And I guess I'd be willing to prepare a little spreadsheet for anybody while bringing on production a month early is a good thing, if that's what ends up happening then I don't get too worried about whether it comes on in December or January, quite frankly I think it's a big value driver or better. Anyway they -- there, we do anticipate a very strong end of the year. That's going to give us a lot of operational momentum as we go into 2020.
Paul Grigel:
Fair enough. Thank you very much.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Bob Brackett from Bernstein Research. Your line is open.
Bob Brackett:
Yes, Dave, beginning of your prepared comments, you mentioned a low maintenance capital. Could you talk about what the maintenance CapEx is and what that base decline that it correlates to is?
Dave Hager:
Yes. The maintenance capital is one, about $1.4 billion and that's maintenance capital essentially to keep EBITDA flat. And the base decline on the assets overall is in the low 30's, a little bit higher on the oil side of the business that factors into that.
Bob Brackett:
Great, thanks for that.
Dave Hager:
Thank you.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Ryan Todd from Simmons Energy. Your line is open .
Ryan Todd:
Good, thanks. Maybe on one on cash return. You've done, you talked a lot of wood over the last couple of years on debt reduction and buyback as you reach sort of the end of the near-term targets you've given on those two programs towards the end of this year. Looking forward, how does dividend growth compete going forward and how much, how important of a factor do you view the dividend -- the potential for dividend growth in terms of kind of long-term investability by the market?
Jeff Ritenour:
Hey, Ryan, this is Jeff. Yes. I appreciate the question. Absolutely, the dividends are critical tool that we're utilizing to return cash to shareholders. We've done that for some time. We've had nice growth in the dividend. As you've heard us talk about our kind of dividend policy that we discussed with the Board, our thought processes really centers around the payout ratio, and so we've kind of designed the dividend to be kind of a 5% to 10% payout ratio, relative to our cash flow from operations. We think that that's competitive with our peer group. We want to make sure that we -- number 1, we can sustain the dividend on a go-forward basis. And then of course grow it from there. So, to the extent that we execute as we've talked about on our share repurchase program the remainder of this year and the debt reduction targets that we've outlined as well, we will certainly go back and discuss with the Board at the end of this year what the opportunity is to do additional share repurchases and think about additional dividend growth in that -- in those two concepts together.
Ryan Todd:
Great, thanks. And then maybe just a quick one, any, I know the data room is open any comments you can make on the initial level of interest that you're seeing in the Barnett and whether it's likely to go as a single package or potentially multiples?
Jeff Ritenour:
Brian, this is Jeff again, I'm just going to introduce David Harris, who leads our business development and E&P Group and he can give you some color on the process there.
Ryan Todd:
Thanks.
Unidentified Company Representative:
Good morning, Ryan. This is David. Thanks for your question. Yes, we have -- the data room process has been really active. I think the one thing I would highlight to you is it is a much deeper and broader mix of participants compared to what we saw recently on our Canadian process. And as we've indicated, we expect to get bids by the end of the 3rd quarter. These are, I'll remind you these are attractive low decline assets with access to premium Gulf Coast pricing, and we've really seen a lot of interest from the market participants given those attributes.
Ryan Todd:
Okay, thank you.
Unidentified Company Representative:
In terms of your second question on, is it likely to go as a single package, obviously we're open to whatever maximizes value for our shareholders. Given the operating synergies across the asset base and how blocky it is, I think it's more likely to be attractive to a buyer as a single package.
Ryan Todd:
That's helpful, thanks.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Neil Dingman from SunTrust. Your line is open.
Neil Dingman:
Good morning. My question sort of takes on what they were just asking. You all certainly have done a lot for shareholder returns here now in the near term in the last several quarters. But my question would be this market continues to stay rational as it is. I'm just wondering how do you balance, do you re-up the shareholder buyback program or how do you balance that versus the growth program that you're outlining?
Dave Hager:
Well, we are going to stick to our, I think the overall message first and foremost is that we are executing from an operational perspective at a very high level. We are going to continue to stick to that plan and we're very confident that that execution is going to continue. We think that we have the asset base, and there is a cost structure that we can deliver both, that we can deliver free cash flow yield. It's competitive, not only within the space but within other industrial companies, while still delivering significant growth. So, we are planning and our plans are based on delivering both of those. With that overall thought, that's part of the work that we're doing in regards to 2020 and beyond is what is the optimum level to ensure that we deliver on those metrics. So but the good news is with our low breakeven, the continued increasing capital efficiency, that continue reduction of the cost structure, and the growth in revenue is going to come as we grow our light oil production, we think we're as well positioned as just about any company out there in the space to deliver on that.
Neil Dingman:
Great answer. And then just one follow-up, around the reallocation of your Mid-Con, the Delaware and the PRB, I'm just wondering other factors that you foresee in the Mid-Con that would cause you to bring some capital back to that play or is it just I mean you mentioned about just you're certainly return driven. Do you envision the Delaware and PRB just continuing to have higher returns?
Dave Hager:
Well, I think currently, again to emphasize it as we -- the current activity we have going on in the volatile oil window is competitive right now. It is as we move out of the volatile oil window in future, are those returns going to compete and certainly in the weaker natural gas and NGL market on a ground floor basis right now that they're going to struggle to compete for capital as well as so with the other place. But as I also have mentioned and we're not being too specific here, we just can't, that we see opportunities because of our strong acreage position that there are opportunities on both the small and perhaps even larger scale to bring in capital to that play to make those economics competitive that we would have activity outside the volatile oil window that would take advantage of these partner joint venture type opportunity.
Neil Dingman:
That's great detail. Thanks so much.
Operator:
Our final question today comes from the line of David Heikkinen from Heikkinen Energy Advisors. Your line is open.
David Heikkinen:
Good morning guys, and congratulations on the process and progress. I've been thinking about kind of clear and simple communications for investors a lot, and I was thinking through like, why don't you all just say something simple like as we reduce our interest cost, we'll transfer those savings to our shareholders through an increased dividend. I just imagine like the immediate capitalization of $60 million of interest from the quarter into your stock to that increase in dividends and as you move forward with your plans on cost reduction. It'll just be like a very simple method for people to understand where you're going.
Jeff Ritenour:
David, this is Jeff. I guess I would, I guess my commentary would be is that we believe it is, we are delivering a pretty simple message, which we've been pretty clear as we're generating cost savings, whether it's on the interest side or on the operating cost side, and the capital efficiencies that we're delivering on the operational side. That's ultimately generating the free cash flow that we projected in our 3-year plan. And then the mechanism that we're returning that to shareholders is through both the dividend and the share repurchase. So we think that's important to have a balance there. Obviously, our first priority has been to get the leverage down to the level that we felt comfortable with. And we're going to get that accomplished, obviously here over the next 6 to 9 months. Beyond that, then to the extent that we are generating the free cash flow that we expect, we'll deliver that in the form of share repurchases in the dividend. And so again we've, I guess I would just say we feel like we have a pretty clear message on that front. We've done over $4.4 billion of share repurchase to-date and grown the dividend in the last year. So, clearly that cash flow is going back to shareholders.
David Heikkinen:
Yes, I guess that optionality in the group is one thing that we hear a lot and optionality leads to some uncertainty. I appreciate the understanding and what you all are doing.
Operator:
We have no further questions in queue. I will turn the call back to our presenters for closing remarks.
Scott Coody:
Well, thank you I appreciate everyone's interest in Devon today and if there is any other questions for -- obviously, the IR team will be around all day long. So feel free -- thank you once again for your time today.
Operator:
This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Good morning and welcome to Devon Energy’s First Quarter 2019 Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. This call is being recorded. I’d now like to turn the call over to Mr. Scott Coody, Vice President of Investor Relations. Sir, you may begin.
Scott Coody:
Thank you, and good morning. For the call today, we have slides to supplement our prepared remarks. The slides for today’s call along with our detailed operations report and press releases are available on our website. Comments on the call today will contain plans, forecasts and estimates that are forward-looking statements under U.S. securities law. These comments and answers are subject to a number of assumptions, risks and uncertainties, many of which are beyond our control. These statements are not guarantees of future performance and actual results may differ materially. Following our prepared remarks, we will take your questions. And with that, I will turn your attention to slide two and hand the call over to Dave Hager, our President and CEO.
Dave Hager:
Thank you, and good morning, everyone. The first quarter was absolutely an outstanding one for a new Devon. As we revealed last year, transforming Devon to U.S. oil growth economy, allowing us to focus on our world-class oil assets in the Delaware Basin, STACK, Eagle Ford and Powder River Basin. With this formidable U.S. oil portfolio, we have multi-decade inventory that will drive sustainable, high-margin growth for the foreseeable future. While our U.S. oil assets have many advantaged characteristics, we are not finished improving our business, and we are acting with a sense of urgency to materially improve our entire cost structure. This focus on operational excellence positions new Devon to generate substantial amounts of free cash flow in today’s pricing and allows us to future deliver value to our shareholders with increasing amounts of cash returns. And on slide three, from almost every perspective, the first quarter can be defined as one of outperformance from the new Devon. Light-oil production exceeded guidance by a wide margin. Improvements in our corporate and operating cost structure are trending ahead of plan and our capital efficiency for the quarter is very strong. All-in-all, we are executing at a very high level on the objectives underpinning our strategic plan. And as you can see on slide four, based on the strength of the first quarter results from our U.S. assets, we are now raising our outlook for oil production growth to 17% in 2019. This represents a 200 basis-point improvement compared to our original budget expectations heading into the year. And if well productivity from our development program continues to outperform our expectations, there is certainly additional upside to our growth rates in 2019. Importantly, we are delivering this incremental production growth within the confines of our original capital budget of $1.8 billion to $2 billion. And this view is backstopped by our strong capital efficiency in Q1. Tony will cover in more depth later in the call, but this improved oil production outlook is driven by the prolific well results we’re delivering in the Delaware Basin. Moving to slide five. As I touched on in my opening remarks, the asset quality of new Devon ranks among the very best in U.S. upstream space, and we are actively working to further optimize the profitability of our business. A key area of emphasis is the aggressive reshaping of our organization with the singular focus on supporting our U.S. oil portfolio in a most cost efficient manner possible. As you can see on the chart to the left, we expect our U.S. oil business to achieve at least $780 million in sustainable annual cost savings by 2021 versus our 2018 baseline. Our cost reduction plan includes a range of actions to achieve more efficient field level operations, lower drilling and completion costs, and better alignment of personnel with the go-forward business. Turning your attention to right hand side of the slide. With our strong possible performance year-to-date, we are now on track to deliver more than 70% of our targeted $780 million in annual cost savings by year-end. The most significant contributor to our cost cutting performance is a substantial progress we have made improving our G&A cost structure. This was clearly demonstrated by our first quarter G&A results which improved 23% year-over-year and were below our guidance range for the quarter. Furthermore, with the steady cadence of successful cost reductions attained throughout the quarter, we now estimate that we have captured approximately $110 million of overhead savings on a run-rate basis. This momentum is projected to reduce G&A by more than 10% in the second quarter and with the planned exit of Canada and the Barnett asset of our portfolio, we expect to attain more than $200 million of annualized G&A savings by year-end. Another key contributor to our cost reduction efforts is the capital efficiency we’re realizing as our U.S. oil business transitions to full field development. These efficiency gains were evident in the first quarter with capital spending declined 15% year-over-year and was below the low-end of our guidance range. Looking ahead, our U.S. oil business is well on its way to capturing $200 million or roughly 65% of our targeted D&C cost savings in 2019. Key drivers of this improved capital efficiency throughout the remainder of the year are improved cycle times associated with our Wolfcamp program and optimize infill spacing program in the STACK and the benefits of a dedicated frac crew in the Powder River Basin. And the last item I will touch on with this slide is our plan to reduce our go-forward interest expense. With our plan to exit Canada and the Barnett, we expect to use potential proceed to retire up to $3 billion of debt, which will reduce our interest cost by about a $130 million or roughly 45% annually. Turning to slide six. Our efforts to high grade our portfolio are also progressing. As we discussed last quarter, with our U.S. oil assets reaching sufficient operating scale to deliver advantage to returns, sustainable long-term growth and free cash flow, the timing is now appropriate to exit our legacy positions in Canada and the Barnett Shale. In Canada, since the last time we spoke, we have made substantial progress advancing the exit of these assets from our portfolio. Data rooms have been open for some time, and we are having discussions with multiple parties regarding an outright sale at valuations consistent with our view of the intrinsic value of the asset. I am very encouraged by the nature of these discussions and we are well on our way to exiting Canada in a timely manner. With our Barnett Shale assets in North Texas, we’re also advancing the sales process with data rooms opening in the second quarter. Overall, for both Canada and the Barnett, we remain on track to have these assets exit our portfolio by the end of 2019. Turning to slide seven. My final key message is that we’ll remain unwavering in our commitment to capital discipline and increasing cash returns to shareholders. As I’ve stated many times in the past, the benefits of any pricing windfall above our base planning scenario will simply manifest in higher levels of free cash flow for Devon, not higher capital activity. And given today’s favorable market conditions, our business is generating considerable amount of free cash flow that we’ll return to our shareholders. With this disciplined and shareholder-friendly approach to the business, we are on pace to reduce our outstanding share count by more than 25% by year-end, and owners of our stock will also benefit from our recently raised dividend; it is 50% higher than just a few years ago. So, in summary, our go-forward asset base is delivering top-tier operating results; our cost reduction efforts are trending ahead of plan; our portfolio transformation is on track to be completed by year-end; and we’re delivering on our promise to return cash to our shareholders. And with that, I will turn the call over to Tony Vaughn, our Chief Operating Officer.
Tony Vaughn:
Thank you, Dave, and good morning. As Dave touched on his opening remarks, new Devon has an advantaged asset base with unrivaled acreage positions in the best U.S. oil plays that strikes a great balance between sustainable growth and free cash flow generation. With our capital programs focused entirely on low-risk development opportunities in the economic core of the plays, we are experiencing a dramatic step change improvement in well productivity, capital efficiency, and corporate level returns. Not only is our go-forward business delivering operating results that rank among the best in the industry, but new Devon’s large, contiguous stacked-pay acreage positions provide us a multi-decade growth opportunity to drive high-return activity for the foreseeable future. For the remainder of my prepared remarks today, I will focus on the Delaware Basin operations, which is the capital efficient growth engine, driving new Devon. Turning to slide number eight. This page clearly demonstrates the substantial operating improvements that we have attained in the Delaware Basin over the past few years. The graphic on the left hand side of the slide showcases the tremendous step change improvement in well productivity we have accomplished in the Delaware with our ship to full field development. The focused development activity we have deployed in the economic core of the play has nearly doubled our well productivity in 2018 compared to our historical average. Importantly, we are not done improving. And based on our year-to-date results, we are well on our way to heating new record highs in well productivity during 2019. Shifting your attention to the right hand portion of the slide, another area we have done a great -- a lot of good work is to maximize the value of our production with a marketing flow assurance strategy. I won’t go through all of the details here, but after including the benefits of hedging and firm transport, our light-oil realizations are near WTI pricing levels and gas revenues are protected by an attractive regional basis swaps. Furthermore, we have leveraged operating scale and acreage dedications in the Delaware to attain contractual, flow assurance guarantees that extend well into the next decade. Our margins will also benefit from the field level infrastructure we have invested in, which have substantially reduced our per unit operating cost by 60% from peak levels and will continue to drive per unit expenses lower in the future. Overall, these results are nothing short of outstanding, given the constraints in this very active basin. The hard work and thoughtful planning from our operating teams is paying off and positions us well for long-term success. Turning to slide number nine. I want to be clear on this one point, we are just getting started in the Delaware Basin. We have the acreage position and the inventory to lever this world-class performance in the Delaware Basin for many years to come. At today’s drilling pace, the 2,000 high return locations we have identified equates to 16 years of inventory. With the depth of stacked-pay resource across the Delaware, we expect our high-return inventory to continue to expand as Devon and the industry further delineate the rich geologic column across our acreage footprint. And finally, on slide 10, let’s briefly pivot the conversation to the outstanding results in the Delaware Basin that drove Devon’s outperformance in the first quarter. During the quarter, we brought on 25 new wells across the state line area of southeast New Mexico which helped net production in the Delaware surge 76% higher year-over-year, 76%. While we had great well results across our acreage position in the quarter, activity was headlined by five massive Cat Scratch Fever wells, targeting a second Bone Spring sweet spot in our Todd area. As you can see on the map to the right, these prolific wells achieved average initial 24-hour production rates of 10,000 BOEs per day per well. All 10 wells from the first phase of the Cat Scratch Fever project are now on line and initial production rates from these wells are some of the highest in the 100-year history of the Delaware Basin. We will follow up the success with the second phase of the Cat Scratch Fever project that is expected to be on line by year-end. The 10 development wells associated with Phase 2 will provide a nice uplift to our Delaware Basin production in the fourth quarter and provide strong momentum into 2020. Another key area where we are achieving very strong results is in our Rattlesnake area in southern Lea County where we have six Wolfcamp development projects underway. Our first two projects Seawolf and Fighting Okra have been great successes for us with average 30-day production rates in excess of 3,000 BOEs per day per well. The next catalyst for Devon in this area is our multi-phase Flagler development, where the first phase of this project will bring seven upper Wolfcamp wells on line around midyear. Beyond Flagler, we have three other projects that will contribute to our growth trajectory over the next year. This Rattlesnake acreage is truly special, and I look forward to providing updates in the future quarters on our high rate wells. And with that, I’m done with my prepared remarks and will now turn the call over to Jeff Ritenour, our Chief Financial Officer.
Jeff Ritenour:
Thanks, Tony. My comments today will be focused on detailing the next steps and the execution of our financial strategy. Beginning with our balance sheet, we have tremendous amount of flexibility when it comes to our financial position. We exited the first quarter with $1.3 billion of cash on hand and expect this balance to meaningfully increase in the future with the proceeds from exiting the Barnett and Canada along with the free cash flow that new Devon is generating at today’s strip pricing. As you can see on slide 11, this exhibit outlines the free cash flow new Devon is capable of delivering at various pricing points. This plan is designed to completely fund our three-year capital requirements in an ultra-low WTI breakeven price of $56, while providing an attractive mid-teens oil growth rate. And at $65 WTI pricing, the new Devon is capable of delivering three-year cumulative free cash flow of $3 billion. This is equivalent to more than 20% of our market cap at today’s share price and represents a very competitive free cash flow yield to investors while still providing an attractive oil production growth rate. A top priority for our excess cash is the repayment of our debt in order to maintain Devon’s targeted debt to EBITDA ratio within a range of 1 to 1.5 times. With this strategy, we expect to redeem up to $3 billion of debt maturities by year-end with proceeds from Canada and the Barnett, which would result in our go-forward interest expense declining by approximately $130 million annually on a run rate basis. In addition to debt repayment, another key financial priority is the return of cash to shareholders. From a dividend policy perspective, our goal is to steadily grow the dividend by targeting a manageable payout ratio of 5% to 10% of our operating cash flow. With this policy, our quarterly dividend is increased by 50% over the past few years. And given that our go-forward U.S. oil business is well-positioned to efficiently expand cash flow for the foreseeable future, we expect to reward shareholders by continuing to steadily grow our dividend over time. With regards to our ongoing share repurchase program, not only is this the most active program by a wide margin in the E&P space but is also one of the largest buybacks regardless of sector in the S&P 500. Over the past 12 months, we have repurchased 114 million shares at a total cost of $4 billion. The execution of our remaining $1 billion authorization will result in a reduction of over 25% of our outstanding shares. To accomplish this, we expect to utilize cash on hand and free cash flow generated throughout the year to continue the repurchase of our shares. So in summary, our financial strategy is working quite well. We have excellent liquidity and our business is generating substantial free cash flow. The go-forward business will have a debt to EBITDA ratio pushing towards 1 times, and we are set to sustainably pay and steadily grow the dividend for the foreseeable future. We will also continue to aggressively buy back our stock. With that, I’ll turn the call back over to Scott.
Scott Coody:
Thanks, Jeff. We will now open the call to Q&A. Please limit yourself to one question and a follow-up. If you have further questions, you can reprompt as time permits. With that, we will take our first question.
Operator:
Thank you. Our first question comes from the line of Arun Jayaram from JP Morgan. Your line is open.
Arun Jayaram:
Good morning. Arun Jayaram from JPM. Dave, you touched on this in your prepared remarks. But, I was wondering if you could characterize the interest level in both of the data rooms that you opened in 2Q. And as you sit here today, how would you handicap the potential for a Canada spin versus outright sale?
Dave Hager:
Well, in Canada, as we said, we are in discussions with multiple parties. We are having advanced discussions with them at a value that -- values we think are appropriate for the intrinsic value of the assets. I don’t want to go into more detail than that, but we feel really good about those discussions we have. And we are optimistic that it’s very likely that we could have a sale of those assets. We are of course in the background working in parallel, the potential spin and all the steps that are necessary to do that. We view that as -- at this point probably more of a backup plan, most likely. And so, we’re encourage. I don’t know if I want to put a percentage on it of everything, but we’re encouraged where those discussions are. In regards to Barnett, we are -- have not yet opened the data room; it will be opened very soon. We have received a lot of inbound cost. It’s not often when a quality asset such as this with a very large contiguous acreage position with very low decline assets that frankly we’ve been able to enhance with some recent drilling and completion activity through our promoted interest that we’re receiving through the Dow joint venture that we have to show the capability what a modern drilling and completion activities could do in the Barnett. It’s not often you get an opportunity to bid on that type asset. And we think that people are seeing that. This has a unique compelling opportunity. And so, we’ve received a lot of phone calls already around that. And we’re very confident, once the data room is opened that we will be able to proceed in timely manner and advance to a sale of that asset.
Arun Jayaram:
Great. And just my follow-up, Dave or Tony. I was wondering if you could provide some color around Phase 2 of Cat Scratch Fever. It looks like from the cartoon, it’ll be completed over a bit of larger area like step in Phase 1. So, I was wondering if you could maybe compare and contrast the development, and perhaps the spacing and lateral lengths of those two projects.
Dave Hager:
I’ll do that, Arun, and then I’m going to turn the call over to John Raines who is our Business Unit Vice President. He’ll be able to give you a little bit more granular information. But again, Arun, I think we’ve commented in the past that this area in Todd is a special area; it’s got additional sweet spot at the top of the second Bone Spring wells that we have mapped out extremely well. The guys have done a lot of subsurface technical work on the area. We knew it was going to be special area, didn’t understand how special it would be once we started producing the wells. But the Boundary Raider wells followed by these 10 wells in Phase 1 have been outstanding. And I’m going to let John describe where we get to in Phase 2.
John Raines:
Yes. Arun, it’s a good question. Following specifically on Cat Scratch 1.0, the full program of 10 wells is a mix of single-mile wells, mile and a half wells and the two-mile wells, we obviously highlighted here in the quarterly option for it. We had three single mile wells, and two one-mile-and-a-half wells. As we contrast that to Phase 2, right now, we’re planning on having six one-mile-and-a-half laterals, two two-mile laterals, and two single-mile laterals. And I’d say, the big difference between the two projects, as we go east, obviously we’ve had significant outperformance on the first phase of the project. I would note and be transparent that we have not made upward adjustments to our expectations for Phase 2. And the reasons for that, one, we have a little bit of thinning in the pay in our upper second Bone Spring sweet spot. As you move east, this project does move east with a little bit of water as well. But, what I would say is, we’re highly confident in Cat Scratch 2.0. And the last two wells that we brought on in Cat Scratch 1.0 were approximately located in and around the area of the majority of the Cat Scratch 2.0 wells and they are exceeding our forecast to type curves based on early time results.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Scott Hanold from RBC Capital Markets. Your line is open.
Scott Hanold:
Thanks. Good afternoon. And, Dave, you’ve commented that if the well performance continues to look strong, there’s some upside, potentially oil production through the course of 2019. Can you just quantify at least maybe just for 1Q just to give us a sense of was the outperformance all directly just better productivity or was there just some more efficient operations that also enhanced that or OBO activity?
Dave Hager:
I think, we overall characterize it to be about 70% well performance and a 30% well timing, moving up to well timing of it. And -- but just to be clear on that, Scott, what we really did with our increase of 200 basis points to the 2019 oil guidance, we only took into account the actual results from Q1. We did not adjust up any future activities. And John just mentioned a couple wells early on that are exceeding expectations. Of course, that is early, and we feel good about the program. But we thought the most appropriate thing, and perhaps a somewhat conservative thing right now is to just adjust out for the Q1 activity and then see how we perform on the remainder of the activity and then make adjustments, if appropriate, then.
Scott Hanold:
Okay, I appreciate that. And with respect to doing things a little bit quicker, and obviously this stronger oil price environment that’s occurred since -- I think they’ve already put off their budgets. Have you seen any -- and I know you guys kept your budget unchanged. Have you seen any inflation pressures that are different than what you last spoke of? And, given the fact that you are maybe, what, 30% advantaged, I guess in that 70-30 split you gave me, is -- what would you do kind of as you get through the year, if you continue to run ahead of pace?
Dave Hager:
Well, let me just make one point, very, very clear to start with. We will not be raising our capital guidance. Period and stop. Okay? So, we are executing very well on our program. We have -- we’re really essentially just executing our program right now that we had planned to execute for 2019. We have executed it a little bit quicker so far. But I might turn it over to Wade Hutchings, our Senior Vice President of E&P, who -- he can walk you through a little bit more of the details, if you’re curious. I mean, the overall picture is that you add completion rates occasionally during the year and rigs. And then, when you need them on a spot basis, you back us out -- back them out at times. But that’s all part of our original plan, and we are just executing on that plan, and that’s what will execute this year. And you can see by the great results on the capital efficiency in 2019 -- or first quarter 2019, we will not be raising capital guidance because the results we’re achieving. But, I think Wade can give you a little more details if you’re interested on just kind of an ins and outs of the activity?
Wade Hutchings:
Sure. Happy to do that, Dave. I would just reiterate, now that we’re about four months into the year, our month-to-month, quarter-to-quarter plan on rigs and crews is proceeding really quite close to our original yearly plan. And let me give you a little bit of context for what you see in our 2Q guide. Essentially, what you’re seeing there is the execution of our plan in the Rockies, where we had indicated that we would be building enough inventory to support a full-time frac crew. That crew is now in the field. And so, that’s contributing to that second quarter guide, as well, we have very specific project in the Delaware Basin where we’re bringing in a spot crew that spans part of the second quarter and third quarter. So, that’s what’s contributing essentially to the second quarter being our peak of activity for the year. When you look at it on a more full-year basis, in the second half, you should see our capital roughly average a touch under $500 million a quarter. That’s really driven by the planned reduction of one frac crew in the STACK in the second half of the year, and then, essentially, the completion of this midyear spot crew in the Delaware, and actually the completion of some increased spot activity in the Eagle Ford in the middle of the year. So, again, very confident in the full-year guide we’ve given and are able to use the flexibly we have in our programs to ensure that we’ll meet that guidance.
Scott Hanold:
Okay. And was there any OFS commentary that you all could provide, the inflation side?
Jeff Ritenour:
Hey, Scott, this is Jeff. Yes. No, absolutely, throughout different cost categories across the portfolio, you’re seeing some inflation but we’re also seeing deflation in several areas as well. So, from our standpoint, enterprise-wide, we really see a flat inflation, deflation output as compared to 2018. So, with the cost efficiencies that we’re driving in the activity that the team’s described, marry it with some of those puts and takes, we really see flat year-over-year basis.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Doug Leggate from Bank of America. Your line is open.
Doug Leggate:
Thanks. Good morning, everybody. Guys, I wonder if I could actually start with the STACK and talk about the evolution of the up-spaced wells, at least that they are showing substantially better performance relative, obviously you showed one clear example, but just across the board at least by that changing spacing is having a very significant impact. I’m just curious, if you could offer any commentary around that and whether it would change your relative plan in terms of where incremental capital goes across the two main areas?
Dave Hager:
Hi, Doug. Wade Hutchings is going to that.
Wade Hutchings:
Yes. Good morning, Doug. Yes. We’re certainly pleased by the new spacing projects that we now have on line. If you look there on slide 17 of the ops report, you’ll see we’re giving you a third -- about a 60-day update on three of those keys. You can see all three of them are actually at or above our expectations. And if you recall, that’s our new infill type curve expectations for this core volatile oil area to play. If anything, we’re seeing slightly better oil rates than that type curve suggested. So, yes, broadly, we’re encouraged by that. I would say, our capital allocation for the STACK for the year is essentially based on that kind of result. And so, at the current moment, I don’t know that we’re anticipating a significant shift of capital in the stack relative to our 2019 plan. One last key point is the key thing that’s also driving our continued investment in the STACK in addition to this well performance, is we are seeing the impacts of our optimized stimulation design, which we’re quite confident is giving us at or better stimulation than we’ve had in the past at lower capital costs.
Doug Leggate:
Sorry. I was just going to ask -- I appreciate the clarification, Wade. But, I just wanted to check, should we anticipate that you -- and obviously, you cut your type curve after the past year? Is it possible that you maybe took it a little too far, will you start to see that reset higher again or are you comfortable where we are right now?
Wade Hutchings:
That’s certainly always a possibility. I’d say today, based on the results we have we’re comfortable with that type curve. But, we’re going to get a lot of new results over the next few projects. And we’ll certainly revise that upward as warranted by the results. I’d just say, again, we’re encouraged by these first few more optimally spaced projects that we’ve now got in the ground.
Doug Leggate:
I appreciate that. My follow-up, Dave, I’d love to get into a little more detail on the Delaware and the inventory levels and so on. So, I wonder if I could just try and hit a fairly high level. If I look at the current 16-year inventory that you mentioned in the slide deck. Obviously, that’s a risk inventory level, but it’s also at the current pace. So, I’m just wondering, how should we think about the inventory debts evolving over time as activity changes? Maybe I don’t know how you’re thinking about that over your longer term, but obviously vision 2020 is only a year away now. So, when you think about over the next three or four or five years, how does that evolve? And I’ll leave it there. Thanks.
Dave Hager:
Well, Doug, I’m going to have Tony or John address this in a little bit more detail. But, I think, the first thing to know that we’ve said before about where we are in the Delaware program is, we’ve spent the bulk of 2016 and 2017 and the first part of 2018 really appraising what were the best zones to develop in different parts of the acreage position in the Delaware. And then, as we started moving through the last part of 2018 and now in 2019, and for many years here to come, we are now -- have a much better understanding of which are the best zones to develop and which areas. And so, we are really drilling the best zones, and you’re seeing the results for that. And that’s what the uptick and performance in the Delaware. And the most important thing is this is a sustainable increase that we’re going to have this rate of change that we saw moving into 2019 is sustainable for many years in the future. I think, John’s going to tell you we’re still continuing to do some appraisal work out there. And we’re finding some zones that are working in areas that we had not anticipated before. So, we feel really good about the 2,000-well, inventory. But, I think there’s potential as we do more work to have this go somewhat higher. I think, John can give you a little bit more feel on that. So, John, do you want to?
John Raines:
Yes. I’d say, the number we disclosed, the 2,000 locations, really represents what we feel good about today in terms of our characterizations. If you take a look at our unrisked count, we’re at about 5,000 potential locations. And that represents potential future inventory and acreage positions that aren’t necessarily within our core five areas that we tend to talk about. And one thing that we’ve seeing out here with heavy industry activity, industry is going to help us derisk some of that inventory. And then, as Dave mentioned, 90% to 95% of the current year program is for development type of inventory. But, we have a very meticulously planned appraisal roadmap. But we’re planning our key appraisal projects by chance of or a probability of success as well as the NAV that they bring into our development inventory. And right now, we’ve focused mainly on advancing our Leonard and Wolfcamp programs in our Todd, Cotton Draw areas. So, feel really good about the inventory situation, even beyond the 2,000 that we disclosed in the ops report.
Doug Leggate:
Sorry, guys. To be clear, 16 years, does not go up or down or the objective to kind of hold that flattish as you move through next several years development pace? That’s really what I just wanted to get at?
Dave Hager:
Yes. I’d say, we’re probably going to keep it at least flat as we add more inventory, if there is additional appraisal work.
Wade Hutchings:
Hey, Doug, this is Wade Hutchings. Hey, Doug, let me add a little bit more high level color here. I think for clarity, we would note, all of these life of inventory calculations are at today’s activity levels. So, that’s just one clarification. Last quarter, we essentially introduced a new set of more clear, transparent information about our inventory. And so, if you recall, last quarter we talked about at the four-basin levels, 4,200 high-quality locations, the 2,000 in the Delaware are part of that. There is a couple of really key points I want to make. First, different than any of the disclosures we’ve made in the past on inventory, those numbers are operated only. And so, we’ve really focused in our characterization approach on where are we confident that we will operate on the acreage we have. And so, that’s one of the key differences from what we’ve told you in the past. And so, when we talk about 2,000 high-quality locations in the Delaware, those we have a significant amount of confidence in. And as John noted, when we look at that at higher price points or even on an unrisked basis, that operated number of goes well over 5,000 locations. So, we’re actually encouraged by the depth of inventory we have in the Delaware today and certainly that’s why you’re seeing a capital flow there. One of the other things we’d note is, as we focused in on our operated positions, the teams have done an excellent job of improving the size and scale of that through lots of trades. So, our non-operated positions have actually strong. And as we have traded those non-op positions or core operated positions, one of the key things that’s allowed us to do is turn more of our inventory from 5,000 to 10,000-foot locations.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Subash Chandra from Guggenheim Partners. Your line is open.
Subash Chandra:
Yes. Thank you. The first question maybe for Jeff. If you could remind us from potential asset sale proceeds, what proportion would go towards delevering to keep the parity on debt EBITDA metrics, and what proportion might be to refuel share buybacks?
Jeff Ritenour:
What we’ve said from day one is our expectation is the first $3 billion would go to debt repayment. So, the combination of the proceeds we received from both Canada and the Barnett will take the first $3 billion and work our leverage metrics down to that -- into that lower end of that 1 to 1.5 times ratio. And anything beyond that would be available for other alternatives and share repurchase would be at the top of that list.
Subash Chandra:
Okay, thanks. And maintenance questions for Wade on the Permian and the inventory there. I’m thinking of slide 16 in the ops report, which has the circle and the number of potential intervals. I was just curious, even though we’re not addressing that on this call. But, if you recall that slide, I’m just curious, maybe what proportion of those circles have been tested to-date? Because I think -- go ahead. Sorry.
John Raines:
This is John. I think what we’re trying to represent in that slide is just the full column of opportunity there. I’d say for the most part, we have tested the majority of these potential landing zones in our Thistle and Rattlesnake areas. As we move west in the play, we’ve got more appraisal to do in the Leonard, in Cotton Draw and Todd, as well as the Wolf Camp, in Cotton Draw and Todd. And then, right now we’re drilling our first Wolf Camp development spacing test in our Potato Basin area. So, I wouldn’t give you a percentage but that just generally tells you how we’re progressing the derisking of our five core areas in Delaware Basin.
Subash Chandra:
Yes. That helps. And just a final one if I can in the PRB also on the spacing, which interval and what spacing have you launched in the quarter?
John Raines:
Hey, Subash, you cut out on that. Could you please repeat the question for us?
Subash Chandra:
Yes, sure. In the PRB, you’ve launched the spacing test, I was just curious, which interval and what spacing you’re testing?
Dave Hager:
We’re testing the Turner right now. And we’re probably saying that something more appropriate to three wells per section is going to be what we land on there in the Turner. I’m going to turn the call over to Aaron Ketter who’s head of our Rocky Mountain business unit.
Aaron Ketter:
See, in this quarter, we’ve obviously been continuing to address the Turner across our acreage, which is varying in stages from development to appraisal depending on the acreage position. And in conjunction with that, we’ve also commenced our Niobrara spacing test. And so, that’ll be very important to us, as we get results the latter half of this year and really set up our 2020 capital program. Right now, for that test, we’re entertaining three wells per section with some upside there, but we’ll wait to get the data back before we make better decisions.
Operator:
Our next question comes from a line of Charles Meade from Johnson Rice. Your line is open.
Charles Meade:
I wanted to ask first question about the Eagle Ford. You’ve had a change of partners there, and it’s a little I’d say best prominently discussed in your -- at least in this quarter’s results. Is there any kind of change to your thinking about whether -- or how important that is in your new Devon portfolio?
Dave Hager:
Well, we are very encouraged with the working relationship that we have with BP; it’s been a great relationship so far, our great exchange of technical views on the asset. And as a result, we think that we are -- our view of the asset frankly has improved. And we see a good growing inventory out there. Obviously, it’s -- in addition to that, it’s a high margin asset with the Gulf Coast type pricing plus that you get for the asset and generate significant free cash flow. So, we’re extremely pleased to have that as part of our inventory for the new Devon company.
Charles Meade:
Got it. Thank you. And then, if I could ask another question about the Cat Scratch Fever wells in the Delaware Basin, I guess, there is two parts. One, you guys have been pretty open to the fact that those 10,000 BOE a day rates, those are test rates. But, can you give us an idea just in broad terms whether -- or at what rate perhaps as a percentage of those test rates that you’re actually producing those, and those are actually contributing to say, 2Q volumes? And then, the other thing about those rates is it really indicates a different kind of reservoir. So, is there a chance that you can drill wells at significantly wider spacing and still capture the majority of that resource in place?
John Raines:
Yes. This is John. With respect to the spacing, we’re very confident in the four wells per section. So, that is the plan that we’re currently executing out there in the drilling phase. We do feel that this is a sweet spot in our Todd area. So, the overall inventory associated with the project is quite limited to the two phases of Cat Scratch Fever. Back with respect to your earlier question around the contribution to the first quarter beat, I would say that most of that is driven by the Cat Scratch Fever Phase 1 program. These wells exceeded significantly our type curve estimates and each of those wells, in particular the five two-mile wells, approximately 60 days in are still exceeding our forecasted production by about 1,000 barrels a day each. So, you could see, it’s delivering quite a bit of the beat in the first quarter.
Operator:
And our next question comes from the line Brian Singer from Goldman Sachs. Your line is open.
Brian Singer:
Continuing on the theme of the Permian inventory but more from a rate of return perspective, can you just give us your latest thoughts on how the Wolfcamp rates of return compare relative to the Bone Spring, relative to the Leonard? And then, as a follow-up question with regards to slide 16, as you go through your derisking efforts, do you think that that’s going to result in greater confidence in the 2,000 locations or an increase in the locations within the number of landing zones that you highlight for subfield here?
John Raines:
I’d say with respect to your latter question, we feel like the derisking that we’re undertaking in the Delaware Basin, not only Devon but industry, will result in an increase in the number of locations, not necessarily landing zones. I think, we’ve laid those out on slide 16. But, we feel that overall it will increase the number of locations. With respect to our three core programs on a rate of return basis, one thing that’s unique a little bit about the Devon position, we’ve got five core areas of consolidated acreage, each of which has some difference in the geology. So, our characterizations vary across those five areas. But generally speaking, all of these are very competitive programs with rates of return that exceed on a burden basis north of 40%. Again, depending on which area we’re drilling, the Bone Spring could be better than the Wolfcamp, the Wolfcamp could be better than Rattlesnake. But generally speaking, they’re all very competitive.
Brian Singer:
And then, within STACK, what are the in STACK -- what are the key milestones that you’re looking for over the course of the year as it relates to how you think about your 2020 plan? So, you talked about stable production this year. Is it your goal that STACK is going to be a stable production type strategy for the next couple of years, and what could change that?
Dave Hager:
I may just start off. I think we view the STACK as really one of our flex assets, so we have that. We are going to maintain capital discipline as a company, and it’s going to be a significant free cash flow generator for the Company. But, it’s one of the assets, given the success we’re having into Delaware, the growth we’re seeing with the opportunities we have in the Rockies, the program that we’ve lined out with BP and Eagle Ford, it’s the one asset that we have the ability to really flex the rig count up and down, while generating significant free cash flow. So, having said that, Wade, may be able to walk through a little bit more of the operational milestones that we’re looking at for over the next year or so.
Wade Hutchings:
Yes. Happy to do so, Dave. I think for 2019, our primary focus is continuing to develop the core volatile oil part of the play, continuing to execute on this new optimized spacing program that we have. We do, however, this year have two pretty important appraisal tests of development mode in the more liquids-rich gas condensate window. And so those results are pretty critical to inform our plans for 2020 and 2021. And so as those results come to a mature state; we’ll certainly be sharing those with you. So I’d say that’s really the key milestones for the year, is determining the depth of extent of the core volatile oil window that we can continue to develop and then the running room in that gas condensate window. But, I’d just reiterate Dave’s point. We’ve now gotten the STACK play to a spot where it’s generating material cash flow for us, somewhere on the order of $300 million a year, and so we see it as a -- as a really important part of funding our future growth objectives across the enterprise.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Jeanine Wai from Barclays. Your line is open.
Jeanine Wai:
My first question is on free cash flow. And Dave in your prepared remarks, you indicated that any excess free cash flow would not be recycled back to the drill bit and we noticed in your earnings presentation that you now only list three uses of free cash flow instead of four in your April presentation. I guess the reinvest in high-return US oil business option kind of dropped off there. Can you talk about what’s changed in your thought process between now and your previous update? We like that you’re signaling to the market your commitment to the CapEx budget, but we kind of thought that was equally strong last quarter. So we’re just wondering if there’s something in the operating environment that you’re seeing that kind of factored into this. You mentioned flat cost year-over-year, so is it something related to like logistics or expected asset sale proceeds or something else?
Dave Hager:
No, nothing has really changed with that. Well, I think the only reason we dropped that off is that we have already laid out that plan, that we plan to execute with the New Devon. And we are committed to staying with that plan that we’ve already laid out. So I wouldn’t say that operationally there is any change at all. It’s just that from a, I guess, that slide standpoint, we have already communicated what the plan is. People understand what the plan is, we have no plans to change that. We are going to be very disciplined from a capital standpoint and focus on the high-return areas in our New Devon. So really, the optionality is not around changing that plan. The optionality is around the other -- everything else that we’ve laid out there. But there’s no -- I would not look at it as any sort of strategic change at all.
Jeanine Wai:
And then, my follow-up question is on efficiencies. You also mentioned that you’re executing a little more quickly than expected and that matches I guess, specifically in the Delaware your Q1 spuds are tracking ahead of the quarterly run rate. So given your commitment to the CapEx budget which you’ve made very clear, if your efficiencies continue to pull forward both drilling and completion, where in the portfolio does CapEx come out first to offset this? We noticed in the presentation last night that the Delaware percent of total CapEx ticked up a little bit and I think you mentioned there was some flexibility in the Eagle Ford and the STACK and some of your other comments.
Dave Hager:
Yes. And I’ll let Wade walk through the details of that before we see it.
Wade Hutchings:
Sure. Let me address two key parts of your question. I think to the question of where will the first dollar come out if we need flexibility to stay within our capital guidance. Short answer to that is, we had a lot of flexibility in the STACK area and that’s likely where that first dollar would come out. Back to your earlier question on the improvements that we continue to see in cycle times and the opportunity we continue to capture at pulling-forward IDs. There’s a lot of things that drive that, but we have a fairly intense focus today on all of the whitespace in our capital execution programs between when we spud a well and when we’re able to bring that well on line. And many of the times that you’ve seen us pull forward IDs, those are simply because we’ve found areas in that whitespace to eliminate. And so we’re able to get the well online sooner even though our basic execution timeline of spuds may not have changed materially.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Ryan Todd from Simmons Energy. Your line is open.
Ryan Todd:
Maybe a couple of quick ones. I mean, congratulations on the progress you have made so far in terms of cost reduction and the update on the reduced outlook for the 2019 SG&A. Maybe can you talk about -- is there -- you’re clearly ahead of expectations probably where the market maybe even expected you to be by year-end in the first quarter. Is there a potential upside to the $300 million total? Is this just you think you’ll get there faster than where you thought? And between now and year-end 2019, how much more outside of the Canada and Barnett, how much more do you think -- what’s the potential upside that you think you get the SG&A down between now and then?
Jeff Ritenour:
Hey, Ryan. This is Jeff. Yes. No, I appreciate the question and as we think about the run rate going forward, we really feel like we’re well ahead of schedule. As you described, if you look at our guide for the second quarter, it equates to about $110 million excluding the Canada and the Barnett piece which is again, ahead of our $200 million estimate for the full year. So I would answer the question to say, yeah, there’s always potential upside. We’re continuing to look at all parts of our business and attacking each of the different cost categories. So, we feel good about that. It’s too soon obviously to change any guide at this point in time, so we still feel very comfortable with the parameters that we laid out on the last call. But we continue to expect on a quarterly basis you’ll see that run rate continue to trend down as we walk through 2019. So obviously, there’s still some noise in the first quarter. You’ll really see the savings show up in our second quarter results and then further as we can move into the third quarter and fourth quarter of this year.
Ryan Todd:
And then, maybe just a quick follow-up. I appreciate the color that you gave early on in the Q&A about the progress on the sale of the Canadian assets. Do you anticipate the decision on Trans Mountain expansion, which I think is targeted for June 18th, will have any impact on the timing of the conversations in terms of the Barnett Canadian sale?
Dave Hager:
We don’t think so. And there are obviously a lot of variables that are going on, but the company that we’re talking to are long term players there. They’re sophisticated players, they understand all the variables that are sitting out there. Obviously prices have improved somewhat, differentials have improved in the shorter term, while longer term, it looks like the differentials are trending more toward real economics. These guys all understand all these variables quite well, and I wouldn’t isolate any one variable in here as being really the most important in order to move forward with this.
Operator:
And our next question comes from the line of David Heikkinen from Heikkinen Energy Advisors. Your line is open.
David Heikkinen:
I think you kind of got to this point of your Delaware results grew 15,000 barrels of oil a day quarter-over-quarter, and it sounds like that’s sustaining pretty well with the 60-day rate. How do you think about just Phase 1 and then Phase 2, adding that much volume and then digesting it and then growing is how I kind of see things flowing. So Delaware declines quarter-over-quarter, is that that reasonable? And then you see another big bump up at the end of the year with the Phase 2 coming back.
Scott Coody:
Hey, David. This is Scott. From a modeling perspective, the trajectory of the Delaware, obviously you saw a pretty significant uptick in Q1. We’d expect some minor growth in the second quarter on an oil volume growth basis in the Delaware and then certainly we’re positioned for strong growth in the second half of the year. So that’s going to be driving the overall corporate growth rates. And as you saw, we’ve raised our guidance for the full year and on top of that, we also raised our exit rate growth too. So the Delaware is the key growth engine. The Rockies is going to start contributing in the second half of the year as well, and we’re going to have a lot of momentum heading into 2020 as well.
David Heikkinen:
And then, Dave, I don’t believe you’re trying to signal anything with the up to $3 billion of debt reduction with the asset sales as far as the proceeds by putting a cap or anything on proceeds, is that fair?
Dave Hager:
That’s entirely fair, David. We are not signaling anything. We’re just saying that the first $3 billion of proceeds from the sale of the Canada and the Barnett will go to debt reduction and that’s what we’ve said. Before we began the process, that’s what we’re saying today. So there’s no signaling at all going on.
David Heikkinen:
Yes. I didn’t expect it. Thanks, guys.
Operator:
And our next question comes from the line of Paul Grigel from Macquarie. Your line is open.
Paul Grigel:
Maybe following up then on the Eagle Ford and around the CapEx budget, how are the discussions going in terms of potential cadence or changing to activity levels, given the very clear communication you guys’ total CapEx budget that the Eagle Ford could still move around this year into year-end, how should we view that?
Tony Vaughn:
Paul, this is Tony. The relationship that we’ve had with BP is working quite well. We picked up a additional rig so we have four rigs currently working there. As we’ve seen over the past two years, three years, the IDs and the rate can be a little bit lumpy, but for the most part, we’ll see a increased rate in the second half of the year associated with one of the larger projects that will come on. Just one thing of note, this relationship is so good with one of the four rigs it’s currently working right now, is being operated by Devon. The technical dialog between the two companies could not be better and I think we’re more closely aligned probably than we had been with the previous partner there. So it’s going really well.
Paul Grigel:
Right. Good to hear. And I guess, turning back to the Permian quickly, given some of the dislocation in natural gas prices around the line of possible Permian hubs, can you guys just remind us how you’re positioned there? Any thoughts that you have on -- clearly revenues, not to focus on them but on actually being able to physically move your gas out of the play.
Dave Hager:
No, Paul, you’re right. Spot on economic and realization standpoint when you marry the hedges that we have in place, we’re in a great spot there. We’re -- I think our hedges are about $1.45 off of Henry Hub. So as compared to some of the other noise you’ve seen in the basin here over the last several months, we’re getting a really nice realized price there from a flow assurance standpoint. With the scale that we have operationally, the long term contracts that we have, we actually avoid physically blaming at Waha. Our gas goes to EPMG and then with the firm sales that we have with our long-term customers, that gas actually moves to the west. So we have not seen any issues on moving our gas and feel really good about the flow assurance there.
Paul Grigel:
Perfect. Thank you.
Scott Coody:
Well, we’re now at the top of the hour. We appreciate everyone’s interest in Devon today. And if we didn’t get your question, please do not hesitate to reach out to the Investor Relations team at anytime, which consists of myself and Chris Carr. Have a good day. Thank you.
Operator:
This does conclude today’s conference call. Thank you for your participation. And you may now disconnect.
Operator:
Welcome to Devon Energy's Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2018 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. This call is being recorded. I'd now like to turn the call over to Mr. Scott Coody, Vice President of Investor Relations. Sir, you may begin.
Scott Coody:
Thank you and good morning. For the call today, we have slides to supplement our prepared remarks. Our slides for the call along with our press release and detailed operations report are available on our website. Some of our comments on the call today will contain plans, forecasts and estimates that are forward-looking statements under U.S. Securities Law. These comments and answers are subject to a number of assumptions, risks and uncertainties, many of which are beyond our control. These statements are not guarantees of future performance and actual results may differ materially. Following our prepared remarks, we will take your questions. And with that, I'll turn the call over to Dave Hager, our President and CEO.
Dave Hager:
Thank you and good morning, everyone. I am very excited to talk to you today about our announcement last night to complete Devon's transformation to a high-return U.S. oil growth company. Before we get started, I want to take a few minutes to set the stage for today's discussion. Today, we are unveiling a new Devon. We've been signaling strongly to the market for some time that when our U.S. oil assets achieve operating scale, exiting Canada and the Barnett as our path forward. What we present to you today is a culmination of an exhaustive strategic and operational review, the results we believe will put Devon in a position to be upper-echelon performer, driving durable improvements and shareholder value. We have the assets, and we have the team to do this. In short, we are aggressively reshaping Devon to win and we will win. Turning to Slide 2, this transformational move is consistent with our long-term strategic plan and will allow the Company to focus on its world-class oil assets in the Delaware Basin, STACK, Eagle Ford and Powder River Basin. To accomplish this portfolio simplification, our Board of Directors has authorized us to pursue strategic alternatives to separate the Canadian and Barnett Shale assets from our retained U.S. oil business. We have hired advisors in evaluating multiple methods of separation for these assets including a potential sale or spinoff, and we expect to complete this separation process by the end of 2019. Additionally, with Devon's narrowed focus as a U.S. oil business, we are committed to transforming our culture and cost structure to compete head-to-head with the best in the business. We are acting with a sense of urgency to materially improve our entire cost structure by delivering at least $780 million in sustainable annual cost savings. With our go-forward business and position to generate substantial amounts of free cash flow at today's pricing, I am also excited to announce that we're advancing our shareholder return initiatives by upsizing our industry-leading share repurchase program to $5 billion and increasing our quarterly dividend payment by 13%. Turning to Slide 3. This exhibit showcases our transformation from a diversified worldwide Company to a highly focused U.S. oil producer today. The key takeaway here is that we have an extensive track record of successfully executing on our portfolio simplification initiatives with more than $30 billion of asset sales over the last decade. The strategic rationale for taking this final step in our transformation and our announcement today is quite simple. With our U.S. oil business reaching sufficient operating scale to deliver advantaged returns, sustainable long-term growth and a generation of free cash flow, the timing is now appropriate to accelerate value creation for our shareholders by exiting our Canadian and Barnett Shale positions. As you can see on Slide 4, the simplification of our portfolio unleashed the potential of our U.S. oil assets, which possess scale and reside in the very best plays and the best plays in the U.S. – in the best parts of the best plays in the U.S. To be clear, the information laid out here is for our go-forward business and represents the results of our four retained oil basins. The charts exclude results from Canada and the Barnett along with minor non-core assets for sale in the U.S., but exclude the benefits of cost saving targets. It is these world-class oil positions with low break-evens, which provide new Devon the flexibility to generate free cash flow and deliver sustainable long-term growth. This is evidenced by the chart at the top of the slide that showcases our top-tier well productivity. On initial 90-day production rates, our average well has exceeded virtually every top competitor in the U.S. Everyone likes to highlight their best wells and we do it too. However, this slide captures every well for Devon and peers. This is true transparency. Devon is right at the top, even including the year when we faced challenges optimizing spacing in our STACK play. Just think about it. If we were at the top even with the STACK challenge we faced in 2018, I wonder what happened to everyone below us. This good news story does not end with well productivity. As you can see on the bottom of the slide, new Devon streamed on U.S. oil portfolio will also deliver substantially improved oil rates, a lower per unit cost structure and higher operating margins that will translate into superior returns on capital employed. Moving to Slide 5, while our U.S. oil assets have many advantaged characteristics, we are not finished improving our business. We are aggressively reshaping our organization with a singular focus on our simplified U.S. oil portfolio to unlock the potential of new Devon. As you can see on the top left chart, we expect our U.S. oil business to achieve at least $780 million in sustainable annual cost savings by 2021 versus our 2018 baseline. Our cost reduction plan includes a range of actions to achieve more efficient field-level operations, lower drilling and completion costs, and better alignment of personnel with the go-forward business. To be clear, these lower drilling completion costs are structural and the 2019 plan assumes flat year-over-year service and supply costs. To the extent, we see deflation in service on supply costs that would be additive to the plan. Importantly, we are acting with a sense of urgency on these initiatives and we are already executing on plans to achieve at least 70% of these cost reductions this year. Our efforts to reduce cost go beyond just dollars and cents and represent a meaningful shift in our culture to more streamlined leadership, more reliance on technical expertise and an intense focus on delivering top-tier returns on our investment. The value creation of these changes are material and impactful for our shareholders equating to a PV10 over the next 10 years of approximately $4.5 billion or more than $10 per share. Turning to Slide 6, in addition to higher asset quality and an improved cost structure, Devon's unwavering commitment to a disciplined returns-oriented growth strategy will drive additional value creation for our shareholders. As we have highlighted in the past, the leadership team at Devon fundamentally believes that a steadier and more measured investment program through all cycles is the best path to optimize corporate-level returns, sustainably grow our business and generate free cash flow and reward our shareholders with increased amounts of cash returns. Importantly, this disciplined approach to the business will allow Devon to achieve all our capital allocation priorities at a flat $46 WTI price deck, while delivering a mid-teens growth rate in light-oil production. To be clear, this includes all of our capital expenditures, not just some of our capital as suggested by others in the industry in their definition of free cash flow within recent presentations. Inclusive of all capital and recurring expenses, Devon is poised to grow oil at a mid-teens rate within cash flow at $46 WTI. The benefits of higher commodity prices above $46 oil will drive higher levels of free cash flow for Devon shareholders, not higher capital activity. Now, let's run through some of the operational highlights and specifics of the 2019 program. As we look ahead to 2019, on Slide 7, we expect our disciplined growth strategy to deliver strong results. For New Devon, we plan to invest approximately $1.9 billion of E&P capital with half of this capital concentrated on low-risk developments in the economic core of our world-class Delaware Basin assets. The other half of our capital will be evenly split between high-return, low-risk oil projects in the STACK, Eagle Ford and Powder River Basin. Although well over 90% of our capital is focused on low-risk development, we will strategically allocate capital to mature our upside opportunities in the Niobrara, the Austin Chalk and other key plays. The capital efficiency associated with this plan is fantastic, allowing us to drill 15% more wells compared to 2018 for roughly 10% less capital investment. Key drivers of this improved capital efficiency are substantially lower facility costs across our retained U.S. asset portfolio, improved cycle times associated with our Wolfcamp program in the Delaware and optimized up-space development program in the STACK and a dedicated frac crew in the Powder River Basin. To reemphasize what I noted on a previous side, all of New Devon's capital requirements in 2019 are funded within operating cash flow at $46 WTI pricing assuming flat service and supply costs versus 2018. Turning to Slide 8, this level of capital investment is expected to drive light-oil production growth for New Devon of 13% to 18% in 2019. Importantly, the trajectory of New Devon's oil production profile is expected to steadily advance throughout the year and exit 2019 at rates more than 20% higher than the 2018 average. Coupled with our share repurchase program that is on pace to reduce our share count by nearly 30%, Devon is positioned to deliver some of the most advantaged per share growth rates in the industry. While our 2019 business outlook is very strong, we will build upon that success in the future by expanding profitability and improving the returns Devon is capable delivering on a multiyear basis. On Slide 9, we lay out multiyear targets, which highlight the peer-leading capital efficiency of the company. It really highlights what New Devon can deliver. First, we expect capital requirements over the next three years to be fully funded with an operating cash flow at a $46 WTI price point, while growing our light-oil production by around 12% to 17% per year over the same time period. As a direct result of our disciplined returns-based growth strategy at $55 WTI, which is near the current strip pricing, New Devon will generate a cumulative free cash flow of $1.6 billion through 2021. The profitability of our barrels will be enhanced through the aggressive improvement of our cost structure, which is expected to yield at least $780 million of annualized savings. From a balance sheet perspective, new Devon will maintain a low leverage profile by targeting a debt-to-EBITDA ratio of 1.0 times to 1.5 times. Slide 10 outlines the free cash flow our business is capable of delivering at various pricing points. As I've already emphasized, this plan is designed to completely fund our three-year capital requirements at an ultra-low WTI break-even price of $46 while providing an attractive mid-teens growth rate. And as I touched on a previous slide, at today's 36 months strip price of around $55 WTI pricing, the new Devon is capable of delivering a three-year cumulative free cash flow of $1.6 billion. This is equivalent to nearly 15% of our market capitalization at today's share price and represents a very competitive free cash flow yield to investors while still providing an attractive oil production growth rate. Importantly, this measure free cash flow yield includes the cash flow from new Devon only and isn't adjusted for the cash flow or value of Canada, the Barnett or other minor U.S. non-core assets for sale. Now, I'll quickly cover a few operating highlights from the fourth quarter. Slide 11 highlights the impressive momentum in the Delaware. Oil production is up 49% year-over-year and has already advanced another 14% in January compared to the fourth quarter. Our well results continue to improve sequentially, reflecting the quality and depth of inventory across our large acreage position in the economic heart of the basin. This will continue into 2019 with our focused Wolfcamp program and an additional development in the Bone Spring near our basin-leading Boundary Raider wells. Slide 12 outlines the substantial progress we have made optimizing infill spacing developments in the STACK. The success of our up-space development drove oil production 9% higher in the quarter versus the third quarter. As important as the strong rates are the significant capital efficiencies in these infill developments. The drilling and completion costs of our infill wells are coming in at approximately 30% lower than the parent wells, a positive step change in capital efficiency. The improved capital efficiency, well STACK generate free cash flow of around $300 million in 2019 at today's prices. Slide 13 covers Eagle Ford, where we expect to add a third rig in 2019. Beyond the prolific lower Eagle Ford wells have driven our development program in previous years, an important program for us this year is our Austin Chalk appraisal. Our five-well program along with industry-leading offset activity could derisk more than 200 locations. With regard to 2018 results, this asset continue to perform at a very high level contributing more than $515 million of free cash flow. For the quarter, positive results were driven by 15 lower Eagle Ford wells averaging 30-day IPs of 3,700 BOE per day highlighting the quality of the position. Slide 14 provides an update on the Powder River Basin where we entered 2019 with significant momentum. January oil production rates were up 25% versus the fourth quarter. Importantly, we expect this momentum to continue as we double our activity levels in 2019 to four rigs and have a dedicated frac crew. The expected 2019 exit-to-exit oil growth rate for these emerging opportunities is greater than 50%. The program will prioritize the Turner. It will also advance the Niobrara program building on the early success seen in 2018. Turning to Slide 15, Devon's differentiated investment story only gets better. We believe our top-tier U.S. oil business trades at a substantial discount to comparable high-quality peers on a number of metrics. We have included a simple comparison on an enterprise value to EBITDA basis to demonstrate this point. As you can see, the analysis implies new Devon creates a very attractive valuation and suggests that investors have further upside with the separation of our Canadian, Barnett and other marketed assets. Bottom line is that we see a tremendous investment opportunity in Devon and we have put our money where our mouth is by aggressively buying back our stock over the past year. Devon represents a unique value proposition in E&P sector that is recognized by the Company and our Board has authorized another increase to our share repurchase authorization to $5 billion. We will be actively buying back shares at this attractive valuation. So, in summary, why should you own Devon? First, core of the core positions in the best U.S. oil plays, low breakevens of $46 WTI with a mid-teens oil growth rate. We are committed to capital-efficient growth and returning capital to shareholders. And finally with new Devon, you have a unique opportunity to own a top-tier E&P at an incredibly attractive valuation.
Scott Coody:
Thanks Dave. We will now open the call to Q&A. [Operator Instructions] With that, operator, we'll take our first question.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from Arun Jayaram from JPMorgan. Your line is open.
Arun Jayaram:
Yes. Good morning. I was wondering if you could maybe outline confidence in achieving the $780 million of cost savings with 70% by year-end particularly on the G&A line item. And I'm also hoping that you can kind of address on Slide 9 the free cash flow targets that you achieve because in the footnotes, you're saying that the cost savings are fully realized at the beginning of 2019. So just wondering if you could help reconcile that slide as well.
Dave Hager:
Yes, Arun, good morning. We are extremely confident on achieving at least $780 million of annualized cost savings. We have activities ongoing right now that are moving us toward achieving those results. We have results or things that we're doing on the drilling and completion side, we outlined some of the key items there. I think if you look at the deck back on Slide 17, it highlights some of the increased capital efficiency around facility costs and I mentioned Wolfcamp drilling cost, and STACK infill design, dedicated frac crew in the Powder River Basin, et cetera. We are working on the LOE side right now. The interest expense is obviously contingent upon the asset sale. And we're confident that we're going to do that. But I think very importantly on the G&A side and that we have said that we will achieve approximately 70% of those savings by the end of this year; I can tell you that we have already started our activity on that front and there is going to be additional activity in the very near future. And we have a plan. We've started the execution of that plan and we're very confident that we're going to get those results. Jeff you want to...
Arun Jayaram:
Just on that Slide 9 or 10, you go through the cumulative free cash flow of $1.6 billion. But just trying to understand when you're assuming – what you're assuming for cost savings for that target.
Dave Hager:
Jeff is going to answer for us Arun.
JeffRitenour:
Yes, Arun, this is Jeff. As we outlined on the slide with the cost savings about 70% of that's going to come in the first year. But keep in mind we've tried to build a 2019 that's clean. So we've assumed that we're starting to get the impact of those cost savings in the 2019 time frame. As you know, that's going to be dependent on, as Dave highlighted, interest cost, for example, is going to be a function of the asset sale proceeds. So, until we actually get the asset sold, you're obviously not going to be able to pay down the debt and recognize some of those interest costs. But we tried to show you a clean 2019 look.
Arun Jayaram:
Great. And just my follow-up, Jeff, can you walk us through potential proceeds, the tax efficiency of the sales of the Barnett and Canada and perhaps the PV10 value of both of those assets for the 10-K?
JeffRitenour:
Sure, Arun. Well, as you might guess, we're not going to prejudge our processes that we have ongoing in each of those assets. But as you're well aware, there have been multiple transactions in Canada, in the SAGD space over the last couple of years. Certainly, there's several publicly traded companies with quality SAGD assets in that space but I think folks can look to get a sense of the value proposition. On the Barnett side, again, have been fewer transactions obviously here of recent, we did obviously sell our Johnson County package last year. I would point out to you, however, that this package is much larger and has a larger weighting toward liquid. So those are things to keep in mind as you think about the value proposition. From a tax standpoint, as I think you probably had talked to Scott a little bit last night and he's probably shared some of this with you already, but our expectation is, we will not have any cash taxes in 2019 related to the divestiture of either of these assets. That's a function of the bases that we have in both of those assets. Structure of the ultimate transaction is ultimately going to determine the tax implications. But under any scenario, we really don't believe there's going to be significant tax impact. Again, that's a function of the bases that we have in the assets, as well as the tax attributes that we have in hand today. So for example, at year-end, we had just under $400 million of NOLs in the U.S. So, you put all that together and we think we're going to have a pretty tax-efficient separation of both of these assets.
Dave Hager:
I may just add a little detail around the G&A, because I suspect others are going to have this same question about it. So if you start with a run or a 2018 G&A of $650 million, we're saying we're going to achieve $300 million of G&A savings. And let me kind of break that down for you so you get an idea in the different categories. We have already identified and already have completed about $35 million of efficiency gains versus the 2018 annual numbers. So our run rate currently is around 615. We expect another $100 million associated with the divestiture-related exits and specifically the G&A associated with Canada and the Barnett directly related to that. We're targeting additionally about $75 million of non-workforce-related reductions in G&A. And there are a number of areas that that's going to come from. But we've identified specific areas where we think that we can target savings. We're spending more than we want. But there are certainly some areas even like the technology area, we think our costs are high and we're working to reduce those, optimizing our third-party labor, a number of areas are non-specific to, that are not workforce-related, and we do target about $90 million of workforce reductions. So and the bulk of that will be done in 2019 as well. So that gives you a little more detail hopefully to see how we get there.
Arun Jayaram:
Thanks, Dave.
Operator:
Your next question is from Doug Leggate with Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Your line is open.
Doug Leggate:
Thank you. Good morning, everybody. Dave, I wonder if or maybe Jeff, I'm not sure who wants to take this, but can you give us an idea what you think the run rate cash flow is associated with the oil sands business and the Barnett business? Because, obviously, as you pointed out in your slide deck, the oil business, the main core business is of a scale now that it can self-fund its growth, but previously I think one of the issues that prevented an exit from these was that they generated substantial free cash. So what should we be thinking as kind of run rate cash flow that is associated to these two?
Dave Hager:
I think Jeff can handle it, but obviously in Canada, it's been quite variable. The cash flow that's been generated from that given the differentials. But Jeff can give you more specific numbers.
JeffRitenour:
Yes. Doug, as just Dave pointed out, it's a little bit challenging at the moment just given the volatility that we saw in the differentials in the fourth quarter. But we're certainly on a go-forward basis thinking about more normalized differentials from a WCS standpoint. There's obviously other complexity given the curtailments and everything else that's going on in the space. But if you think about our base business and steady-state production, you're probably in that $400 million to $500 million range from an EBITDA standpoint for the asset. On the Barnett, I believe in 2018 that asset did around $200 million and $250 million of cash flow, and so it should be in that same ballpark going forward.
Doug Leggate:
All right. And we are not many miles away. Thank you for that. My follow-up is really more on the go-forward plan. Dave, the performance in the Boundary area and the Delaware obviously has been quite impressive. I think you still hold the record wells up there. But as I look across the going into Cotton Draw and some of the other areas that you tested initial wells in the fourth quarter, the whole area looks like it has stepped up in terms of productivity. So I guess I'm curious what should we be thinking now in terms of the standard well design that's behind your go-forward program given that the Delaware is dominating the drilling plan? I'm really thinking more about the quality of that 2000 location inventory; how variable is that relative to 2019 fund would look like and I'll leave it there? Thanks.
Dave Hager:
Well, we've obviously had a significant step change in productivity with the Delaware Basin. As we've moved out of the appraisal activity and now we're more into the full development activity in the Delaware Basin. So we're being able to target the right zones and the right areas and that has led to this productivity improvement. That's going to continue some. I think the other thing you're going to see, as I alluded to, you're going to start to see the costs come down significantly on the Wolfcamp program. So, Tony, I don't know you if you want to go – you can go through a little more specifics on the well expectations by formation?
Tony Vaughn:
Doug, in the Wolfcamp, you know, we're going to spend about – we're going to drill about 45% of our activity will be in the Wolfcamp in 2019. And as Dave mentioned, having great success there on the well performance side but also on the cost efficiency side of our business. Some of the good well performance is also translating up into our Todd area which is pretty far north for Wolfcamp activity and seeing some really outstanding results there. But if we look at the typical 8,500-foot Wolfcamp well, our D&C costs right now are estimated someplace between $9 million and $11 million per well; recognize that we're in a transition state right now where the more repetitions we have that's coming down the learnings are accelerating quite rapidly. The 30-day IPs we're estimating to be about 2,500 BOEs per day and ultimate recoveries are we're estimating to be upwards of about 1.4 million barrels per well. You also have followed our activity in the Bone Springs and we continue to do very good thoughtful work there with outstanding results, high returns. And there we're spending about $6 million to $7 million per well. IP is a little bit less in the Wolfcamp, a little bit less than 2,000 BOEs per day and ultimate recoveries is about 1 million barrels per well. And Leonard is also a great story line there as well. Costs are in that same range as the Bone Spring's well. The 30-day IPs are about 1,500 BOEs per day and the ultimate recoveries are also about 1 million barrels per well. So we're quite pleased with all the activity that we have in the Delaware. I got to compliment our technical staff, at this point Doug, since we're talking about the Delaware. They've done a very nice job building out the infrastructure for that entire area. I think you've heard us talking the past about the magnitude of water that we move through our existing infrastructure, which is about 90% to 95%. So the guys are doing just really quality work and I think this is all predicated, not really initialized from the initial work where we locked up our acreage in the areas that we knew we wanted to focus. And that has proven out to be extremely valuable decision from three years ago.
Doug Leggate:
Tony, just to be clear before I jump off, so the chart showing the 2018 program, on the 2018 Boundary Raider program, is the implication that your 2000 locations, do you expect to be able to continue to follow that kind of profile?
Dave Hager:
We're going to put John. John is Head of our Delaware Business Unit and John has been a part of all the transformation work that we're doing in the Delaware.
John Raines:
Yes. Doug, what I would say is, when you look at our 2019 program, the activity is pretty evenly split over what I'd call our big four core areas. With the Potato Basin, with our Spud Muffin project, we're adding a fifth core area this year. And these four or five core areas I guess now would be what I would characterize as geographically and geologically diverse. So what Tony just walked through was essentially a blended average of our production profile. When you look at the Boundary Raider area in particular, in 2019, we're offsetting the Boundary Raiders with about 20 wells, and we have a bit higher expectations for those wells; it's called our cat scratch fever development program. So as compared to the blended average, we have higher expectations for these wells. What I would caution you is that the Boundary Raider wells are the biggest wells in the history of the Delaware Basin, so we're not going to build a type curve off those two wells, but we do have extremely high expectations for this program.
Doug Leggate:
Appreciate for the answer, guys. I have to meet a guy that named Spud Muffin, but we will leave out for another day. Thanks a lot guys. Appreciate the time.
Operator:
Your next question is from Phillip Jungwirth with the BMO. Your line is open.
Phillip Jungwirth:
Thanks. Good morning.
Dave Hager:
Good morning.
Phillip Jungwirth:
In the past, you've always talked about wanting a mid-cycle price for Canada. And now with a more definitive time line around separation, how much will market condition continue to play a role here? And what gives you confidence that the assets can transact at an attractive price?
Dave Hager:
Well, we're not going to give these assets – this asset away. This is a high-quality asset. There is in top 10% of all SAGD assets out there. Assets like this don't come to market every day and we think that that's going to be recognized by the potential purchasers that will – how high-quality asset this is. And I think frankly there are a number of people who are looking at this business for the long-term and understand that and will understand that the differentials can swing widely. But they do have some confidence that eventually we are going to have more pipeline infrastructure out there and we'll be able to price it appropriately. So you're not going to see – we're not going to give it away. But I think the other thing that I would remind you and that's important I remind you to go back and look once again at – on the operations report at Slide 11 where it shows that even with no value ascribed to the Barnett and Canada, we're still trading at a discount. So in a way, you're getting free option on this. Now that doesn't mean we're going to give it away for free because we think it is a valuable asset. But when you look at the share price I think that's important thing to keep in mind.
Phillip Jungwirth:
Great. And then on the option for spin, curious if you had any initial thoughts on pro forma leverage, G&A allocation and whether you would expect Devon to retain any equity ownership in the new company.
Jeff Ritenour:
This is Jeff. We're in early days of just working through all that with our advisors, so I don't have definitive answers for you on each of those points but our current expectation is a complete exit. So not to say that we won't consider structures where Devon does keep some sort of equity ownership but our current thought is a complete spin to shareholders.
Phillip Jungwirth:
Right. Thanks.
Operator:
Your next question is from Robert Morris with Citigroup. Your line is open.
Robert Morris:
Thank you and Dave congratulations on pending transformation.
Dave Hager:
Thanks Rob.
Robert Morris:
Question on the STACK here I know versus what that you laid out in November. It appears you're cutting some capital out of the STACK and that results in a pretty sharp downtick in activity there this year versus last year. Can you give us a little bit of color or thought around why you're cutting capital out of that area versus the other core areas now?
Dave Hager:
Well, I'd say that overall we obviously allocate the capital to where we see the highest returns. Now we do have some very high-quality program that we're going to be executing in the STACK in the volatile oil window and we feel good about that. But I think with the – you start with the overall desire to certainly live within cash flow and to generate some level of free cash flow with the breakevens of $46 you can see that we're poised to do that. But given that and given where we want the overall capital budget to be, you start ticking through the areas and the Delaware is performing just outstanding. We want to keep our momentum going there. The Powder River Basin, we think it's important to expand from two to four rigs to be able to go into development on the Turner and fully appraise the Niobrara activity. The Eagle Ford, we've gone to three rigs in partnership with our new partner, BP, and potentially adding a fourth rig later this year. And so we have a relationship there, so we feel that's appropriate. So that really makes it come back to the STACK and STACK is really the one that has the most flexibility for the pace of the program. And so given the learnings we have and we want to concentrate on the core of the volatile oil window that's the one that we feel that we should adjust capital.
Robert Morris:
Okay that's good answer. Appreciate that. With regard to capital allocation, I see that you're targeting 25 horizontal refresh in the Eagle Ford this year. Can you give us a sense of sort of the costs of those, what the economics are in doing those and the uplift in the EUR of production trend in those refracs?
Tony Vaughn:
Bob, this is Tony again. We are – we've got about 19 planned for 2019. We're having great success with our refrac program especially high-end success with our liner refracs. And there we're spending about $4 million per well. When we tried to go without liner and without trying to add new perfs and direct our injection with a plug-and-perf system we can save about $1.5 million and get back to something closer to about $2.5 million. Order of magnitude, we're seeing on uplift. It depends on well to well, but we're seeing an uplift of about 1,000 barrels of oil per day uplift from the wells that have been fracked – refracked with the liner system. The total capital again is about $4 million and the expected rate of return is really at the high end of our portfolio risk. And if you look at the cheaper refracs that we've done just bull heading the fluid and prop it down; gets similar-type response and economics there at lesser cost, but the IPs are a little bit less at about 700 initially. And again a little bit more volatility in some of the results we've had to date. But for the most part we're excited about this and find it to be one of the higher-end components of our portfolio.
Robert Morris:
That's great. And just lastly, what would you estimate the inventory you have of refrac candidates now?
Tony Vaughn:
We've got about 700 refrac opportunities in the field on an unrisked basis. So as we continue to prosecute this and get more data, we'll just keep marking through that list.
Robert Morris:
Great. Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question is from Ryan Todd with Simmons Energy. Your line is open.
Ryan Todd:
Thanks. Maybe a follow-up, first of all, I mean, if you're able to execute on planned monetization efforts, your potential and your commitment to shareholder cash returns are clearly set you apart from your U.S. onshore pure-play peers while still growing double-digit oil volumes. Can you talk about how you think about free cash flow generation of the goal, whether you have specific targets relative to peers or relative to the broader market or how you look to manage free cash flow generation relative to organic growth over the longer term?
Jeff Ritenour:
Hi, Ryan, this is Jeff. I think as I started out I would point you to one of the things that we're really focused on is just maintaining steady state of activity in our base operations. And as we've talked about today, we feel really comfortable that we can do that at $46 kind of break-even price that we've laid out. We aren't specifically targeting a specific yield or an absolute dollar number, but really more focused on maintaining that momentum in our operational programs and then focused on the cost control that we've outlined today. And then beyond that the free cash flow frankly is just going to fall out of that game plan.
Dave Hager:
I think Ryan, our basic philosophy is to have a consistent measured approach to capital investment. We find that we generate the highest returns when we do not dramatically increase or decrease our capital spending. And so you can look for us and that's one of the strengths obviously advantages of having a strong balance sheet also allows you to weather fluctuations in commodity prices. And so we – you can see us, we may flex it up and down slightly but we try not to do it too much because if you do you start losing returns. You become much less efficient. So you can look for us to stay measured in our approach on capital investment. And as Jeff said as free cash flow is generated above that approach, we see that available to return to shareholders.
Ryan Todd:
I appreciate that color. And maybe a question on the PRB unit, a pretty significant increase year-on-year in activity. Can you talk about where you see those assets in terms of confidence level on development maturity as you move toward more of a development program there how you feel about in terms of how much you've been able to derisk and how you think that activity level may evolve in the next few years?
Dave Hager:
I would say – Tony is going to give you the detail but the big picture is the Turner is moving into full development and we are appraising the Niobrara for potential full development in 2020. But Tony can lay more details on that.
Tony Vaughn:
And that's right, Dave. Ryan, we're quite excited about the Powder River Basin position. We've been operating in the basin for quite some time and fully understand the subsurface of the basin. You recall that we expanded our position a couple of years ago and the team has done a really thoughtful job of derisking the Turner. We've continued to manage our Turner appraisal process understanding spacing as Dave mentioned are now moving into the development phase of that. So very high confidence on the results that we've seen in the Turner, we also continue to run about a rig line associated with the shallower zones in department and the Teapot in there is a great filler for some of the Turner activity. Those type of results have been outstanding. And I think if you looked at the operating reports on the detailed information there, we brought on about nine wells at the second half of December; came on a little bit late because we don't operating two rigs there. We did not have the ability to handle a dedicated frac fleet. So it was deferred just a little bit, moved most of our new performance from those nine wells into January. But the well results were outstanding; fit right nicely into our expectations. As Dave mentioned, we're increasing our activity. We're at three rigs right now and by April we'll have the fourth rig running and we'll also have our dedicated frac fleet there. And what that significance of that means in terms of the cost savings there, our technical team has done a really good job and they believe they can work about $1 million per well out of our costs simply by having enough of a relationship between the four rigs to keep the one frac fleet busy. So we're very optimistic about the development work we're doing there. What's also very intriguing to us right now is the work that we're doing in the Niobrara and we've reported on three outstanding wells in the Niobrara. Those are holding up really nicely fit well into our subsurface model. We're continuing to appraise that in 2019. And in fact, on our Atlas East program, we're going to watch that develop in 2019. And by the end of 2019, if all this drills out as we expect to we'll be into development mode around the Atlas East portion of our base in there and have the capabilities to even increase rig count past that for Niobrara development. And if you remember, the Niobrara is a source rock for the upper portion of the column there in the Powder River Basin. There were certainly behave more like a ubiquitous unconventional formation like we're used to prosecuting. So a lot of upside coming our way in the Powder River Basin.
Dave Hager:
Ryan, I can tell you just a second just to highlight – step back and highlight. What I think is a very important point about the New Devon. And it's really showing in a series of three slides there in the operations report, not the one accompanying the – my comments, not the management commentary, but the operational report and Slides 4, 5, and 6. And Slide 4 shows that we have assets in four of the best U.S. onshore basins. And we don't just have assets in four of the best U.S. onshore basins, we have – when you look at the acreage position, our acreage is truly located in the best parts of each of those four basins. And that manifests itself directly on Slide 5 with those well productivity results. And a little provocative in my comments there, but it is amazing to me that we're so transparent with everything. We talk about base missteps we have at Showboat and the STACK and all that, but it just makes you wonder. I mean, we talked about that and the negatives there, but look at where we stack up. We are stacked up even including that at the top of the 90-day IP charts. So that is that's transparency and that's also showing that we're in the best parts of those basins. And then when you continue on Page 6, we have depth. So we've got acreage in the best part of it and we also have depth in the best part of it. And that's why we are so excited about this New Devon because we think this positions us to compete at the top echelon of the U.S. onshore unconventional companies.
Tony Vaughn:
Ryan, you're on the phone, this is Tony. I misspoke. It's not Atlas East, it's our western portion of our development called, Atlas West.
Ryan Todd:
Okay. Thanks. I appreciate all that color.
Operator:
Your next question is from Bob Brackett with Bernstein Research. Your line is open.
Bob Brackett:
A question on the sale potentially of Barnett and Canada, Do you have any – have you been approached by buyers? Do you have any sort of notional bids on those yet? Or will those come out of a data room process?
Dave Hager:
Those will come out of a data room process. We just hope to have the data room completed by – on Canada by the end of the first quarter; Barnett second quarter. And so that we'll get bids in.
Bob Brackett:
Okay. And then a follow-up on the refrac question earlier for the Eagle Ford. Do you have a notion of the EURs of those refracs? And are those refracs included in your inventory of high-return locations?
Tony Vaughn:
Bob, I'm just looking at some of the notes here. This would be about 150 MBOE to 200 MBOE per refrac.
Bob Brackett:
And are those counted as inventory locations?
Tony Vaughn:
No, they are not.
Bob Brackett:
Yes. Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question is from Brian Singer with Goldman Sachs. Your line is open.
Brian Singer:
Thank you. Good morning. Sticking with the Eagle Ford, you talked about the refrac program and you also talked about stabilizing volumes by year-end and potentially growing in 2020. Is that mainly just a function of the three-rig program i.e. greater activity or beyond the refracs? Are there other measures that are contributing to that stabilization and potential growth?
Dave Hager:
I think it would be primarily due – three rigs basically production plan in the Eagle Ford. And so the anticipation that we may have a fourth rig in the Eagle Ford which should be somewhat predicated on the success of the appraisal work in the Austin Chalk.
Brian Singer:
The fourth rig would basically only come in if the Austin Chalk were successful in other words?
Dave Hager:
Yes.
Brian Singer:
Got you. Great. And one quick question with regards to the Barnett Shale. Would the transportation piece be a part of the sale? Or would you be retaining transportation or paying or having to settle on transportation contracts?
Jeff Ritenour:
Yes, Brian, this is Jeff. That's still to be determined. We have worked through that with the potential buyer. I will point out to you though the MVC is obviously that we've lived with in the Barnett dropped off here at 2018. So you've seen a big step-up in the resulting cash flows as a result of that.
Brian Singer:
Great. Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question is from Charles Meade from Johnson Rice. Your line is open.
Charles Meade:
Good morning, Dave and whole team there.
Dave Hager:
Good morning, Charles.
Charles Meade:
I appreciate the, I guess, your posture in all your comments today. You've got a good and a new story to tell. But I wanted to go back to a couple of your earlier responses in Q&A about the Canadian assets. And I recognize that you guys are going to be circumspect as you're in the sales process. But I just want to make sure I understand what you do want to tell us. So you've said in your slides in and operations report, you say it's free cash flow above $50 WTI. But did I hear right that you expect the annual EBITDA in the range of $400 million to $500 million for Canada? And if so what is the implied WTI price in that assumption?
Jeff Ritenour:
Charles, this is Jeff. Yes, the WTI price that we assumed in that is kind of a $55 oil.
Charles Meade:
Got it, got it. Okay. That's helpful. And then if I could go back and ask a question about those boundary Raider wells. And I recognize it's just two wells and you can't move a type curve based on it. But I'd go back to a few quarters ago when you said that's pretty outstanding wells in the STACK area. And the story was there that you predicted that the wells will be more productive because there was – you anticipated a change in lithology. And I'm wondering if that was the case also with these Boundary Raider wells that you expected different lithology that would be more productive going in and how these wells, which are really outstanding wells – how they fit with your previous expectations?
Dave Hager:
Yes. Well, maybe we have John Raines discuss it here a little bit more detail. I think we all anticipated to be good wells based on our understanding of the lithology and the thickness of the particular zones. We're targeting that we all think they're going to be as good as they were. I think they may have been a little bit of a surprise they were that good. But I think we do have a good handle for what's going on lithologically there. And that's why we expect this next batch oil to be really strong. Now are they going to be as strong as those two wells or maybe not that quite strong but they'll be strong wells. So John you want to add to that?
John Raines:
Yes. This is John. Just a touch of detail on that. We actually drilled the parent well in the Boundary Raider area back a few years ago and discovered the lithology. There's a bit of a structural high there. You've got some exceptionally clean sand in the Second Bone Spring. But the reality is as we marched east with our cat scratch fever program we don't have us much well control in the Second Bone Spring. So for us to predict Boundary Raider like results would probably be a bit foolish, but like everybody said we expect big things from the cat scratch program and look forward to bringing those wells on.
Charles Meade:
Thanks for that detail, John. And thanks, Dave.
Dave Hager:
Yes.
Operator:
Your next question is from Paul Grigel with Macquarie. Your line is open.
Paul Grigel:
Hi, good morning. What's the underlying PDP decline rate of the New Devon U.S. onshore business moving forward?
Jeff Ritenour:
Hi, Paul we're pulling this number together right now, but directionally, it looks like to us with regards it's about 30% year one on a BOE basis and oil is going to be a little bit higher than that. So that's going to be for the New Devon. So that would exclude the Barnett and Canada.
Paul Grigel:
Okay perfect. Thank you. And then I guess following up on the Powder River, you mentioned on the infrastructure not being an issue in 2019 as you move to four rigs. How should we think about either oil or gas takeaway or other logistical infrastructure items as you move maybe and later into 2019 or into 2020, should the Niobrara go into development mode as well?
Jeff Ritenour:
Yes. This is Jeff, Paul. We don't expect to see any issues in the near term – excuse me, 2019, 2020 or 2021 from a transportation standpoint or takeaway standpoint.
Paul Grigel:
Great. Thank you so much.
Operator:
Your next question is from John Aschenbeck with Seaport Global. Your line is open.
John Aschenbeck:
Good morning and thank you for taking my questions. Wanted to follow up on your three-year plan and I apologize if I missed this, but I was wondering how we should think about the progression of free cash flow, specifically as we get into 2020 and 2021. I'm just wondering is it fairly ratable or if there's perhaps some lumpiness from one year to another. And then also I'm not sure if you have it in front of you but was curious what the progression of CapEx looks like over that time period as well. Thanks.
Jeff Ritenour:
This is Jeff. Yes, the first two years are pretty comparable as you roll forward. 2021, you do see a move higher with the production growth that we expect and you'll see additional free cash flow as the cost savings really start to compound over that multiyear period. On a capital standpoint, it's relatively flat as well. You'll see some increase on a year-over-year basis from 2019 to 2020 and then from 2020 to 2021; 10% overall.
John Aschenbeck:
Got it, got it. Really helpful. Appreciate that. Last one is a more of a point of clarification on your 2019 oil growth. Looking at your exit rate that's targeting 20% growth versus full year 2018, how should we think of that exit rate? Is it fair to think of that as a proxy for a Q4 average? Or is it more so a smaller snapshot of time?
Jeff Ritenour:
We will probably consider that a snapshot in time. That's just trying to give you indicator of just the production momentum we expect heading into 2020. So not trying to imply Q4 there but clearly you'll see a pretty strong growth rate year-over-year, but probably not greater than 20%.
John Aschenbeck:
Okay. Perfect. That's it for me. Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Subash Chandra with Guggenheim Securities. Your line is open.
Subash Chandra:
Yes, hi. First question on Canada, how are you thinking about Pike in the asset sale? I guess as a full exit, so is the intention sort of recover the billion-ish invested in Pike to-date?
Dave Hager:
Well, its full axis of Canada. So Pike would be included in that in whatever sales price we get.
Subash Chandra:
Okay. And the capital allocation in the U.S., just a follow-up on the Eagle Ford and STACK, the completion phase in 2019 for STACK in the 80 90 wells, should we think of that sort of as a run rate going forward? And in the Eagle Ford, the refracs, do they stand on their own or are they part of a mitigation strategy against frac heads?
Tony Vaughn:
Subash on the Eagle Ford question, a portion of these are stand-alone refracs but the portion of those part of the completion of a pad. So it'd be a pressure mitigation process.
Scott Coody:
And Subash, this is Scott. With regards to the STACK activity levels for 2019, we're going to bring online a few more wells than what we drill. I think we're going to drill about 90 wells, and from a spudding perspective, order of magnitude maybe 10 less somewhere in that neighborhood. So I think that's the best way to think about the cadence of activity in the STACK in 2019.
Subash Chandra:
Okay. And so no comment on 2020 and beyond? Or should we think about that program as being a run rate program beyond 2019?
Dave Hager:
Subash, I think it's a little bit early to be looking at that. But right now we have thoughts that that would just be a good cash flow-generating asset and that activity would be somewhat consistent with our plans in 2019. We're quite excited right now. I think we reported in some really good rates on the wells that are associated with the less dense space projects and that's showing to be really prolific and has not been built into our fuller modeling thought process, but for the most part be fairly consistent activity to 2019.
Subash Chandra:
Right. Thank you for all the answers.
Scott Coody:
I show that we're now at the top of the hour. We appreciate everyone's interest in Devon today. And if we didn't get your question, please not hesitate to reach out the Investor Relations team today, which consists of myself and Chris Carr. Once again, thank you for your time.
Operator:
This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.
Executives:
Scott Coody - Devon Energy Corp. David A. Hager - Devon Energy Corp. Tony D. Vaughn - Devon Energy Corp. Jeffrey L. Ritenour - Devon Energy Corp. Wade Hutchings - Devon Energy Corp. Kevin D. Lafferty - Devon Energy Corp. Richard A. Gideon - Devon Energy Corp.
Analysts:
Subash Chandra - Guggenheim Securities LLC Arun Jayaram - JPMorgan Securities LLC Robert Scott Morris - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc. Doug Leggate - Bank of America Merrill Lynch Phillips Johnston - Capital One Securities, Inc. Brian Singer - Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Ryan Todd - Simmons & Company International, Energy Specialists of Piper Jaffray Charles A. Meade - Johnson Rice & Co. LLC Paul Grigel - Macquarie Capital (USA), Inc.
Operator:
Welcome to Devon Energy's Third Quarter Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. This call is being recorded. I'd now like to turn the call over to Mr. Scott Coody, Vice President of Investor Relations. Sir, you may begin.
Scott Coody - Devon Energy Corp.:
Thank you, and good morning. I hope everyone had the chance to review our financial and operational disclosures that were released last night. This data package includes our earnings release, forward-looking guidance and detailed operations report. Additionally, for the call today, we have slides to supplement our prepared remarks. These slides are available on our website and we will make sure to refer to the slide number during our prepared remarks so that everyone can follow along. On today's call I will cover a few preliminary items and then I will turn the call over to our President and CEO, Dave Hager. Dave will provide his thoughts on the strategic directions of Devon. Following Dave, Tony Vaughn, our Chief Operating Officer, will cover a few highlights from our U.S. resource plays and provide his perspective on the current market dynamics in Canada. And then we will wrap up our prepared remarks with Jeff Ritenour, our Chief Financial Officer, covering our financial highlights. Overall this commentary should last around 15 minutes before we head to Q&A. I would like to remind you that comments and answers to the questions on this call today will contain plans, forecasts, expectation and estimates that are forward-looking statements (01:26-01:28). These comments and answers are subject to a number of assumptions, risks and uncertainties, many of which are beyond our control. These statements are not guarantees of future performance and actual results may differ materially. For a review of risk factors, please see our Form 10-K. And with that, I will turn the call over to our President and CEO, Dave Hager.
David A. Hager - Devon Energy Corp.:
Thank you, and good morning, everyone. For today's call my comments will touch on three key messages related to the strategic direction of Devon. Turning to slide 2, the first key message I want to emphasize is our commitment to our disciplined, multiyear development plans. At Devon, we fundamentally believe that a steadier and more measured investment program through all cycles is the correct strategy to optimize corporate level returns, grow our business, generate free cash flow and reward our shareholders with increasing amounts of cash returns. With this disciplined approach to the business, the benefits of any pricing windfall above our base plan will simply manifest in higher levels of free cash flow for Devon, not higher capital activity. I am absolutely convinced this balanced operating model is the future of the E&P business and we will be a leader in this movement. Importantly, this bold commentary is backstopped by actions which has resulted in several value enhancement accomplishments year to date. Our light oil growth is running ahead of plan with no modifications to our capital spending. This combination is a unique success in the E&P space this year. We have taken action to materially improve our corporate cost structure, delivering $475 million of savings on an annualized basis. Our capital discipline has resulted in free cash flow in the second half of 2018 and, coupled with divest proceeds, we have generated nearly $4 billion of excess cash inflows this year. We have strategically deployed a portion of this excess cash flow to reduce debt and we have raised our net debt to EBITDA target of 1 to 1.5 times nearly two years ahead of plan. And maybe the most important highlight of 2018 is the industry-leading amounts of cash we are returning to shareholders through our $4 billion share repurchase program. All in all, we are executing at a very high level on the objectives underpinning our strategy and I expect our disciplined business model to continue to deliver differentiating results in the future. Looking ahead to 2019, my second key message is that we are accelerating investment in our world-class Delaware Basin assets. Turning to slide 3, from a total company perspective, we directionally expect our E&P capital to range from $2.4 billion to $2.7 billion in 2019. With this activity, the Delaware will be our top funded asset by a wide margin with investment increasing by greater than 25% to nearly $1 billion. As showcased in our Q3 operations report, the increased activity in the Delaware is an easy capital allocation decision given the massive step change improvement in well productivity and returns we have experienced over the past year. Importantly, we have secured the supply chain, infrastructure and takeaway capacity to execute on our development plans. Beyond the Delaware, the STACK and Rockies will also be important growth assets for us in 2019. With our refined approach to infill spacing, we expect the STACK to be our second highest funded asset in 2019 and the doubling of activity in the Rockies will also contribute to our oil growth initiatives. Specifically in the STACK, we are very confident we have determined the optimum well spacing of 4 to 8 wells per drilling spacing unit. This quarter marks an inflection point in both returns and volumes for the STACK. Better days are on the way very soon in the STACK. In aggregate, approximately 90% of our total capital program in 2019 will be allocated to our high-growth U.S. resource plays. This highly focused capital program in 2019 is expected to drive 15% to 19% oil growth from our retained U.S. assets with total company-wide volumes projected to advance at a high-single digit rate on a retained asset basis. Most importantly, this light oil oriented development program is designed to deliver healthy margin expansion and achieve highly competitive cash flow per share growth at today's strip prices. Moving to slide 4, the final key message I want to convey is that we are on track to deliver on the performance targets associated with our multiyear business plan. While I will not cover all of the details on this slide, I want to be clear
Tony D. Vaughn - Devon Energy Corp.:
Thank you, Dave. Today my remarks will be focused on a few key messages related to our U.S. growth platform and I will also provide some thoughts on our current market dynamics in Canada. Beginning with the Delaware Basin on slide 5, I believe it is fair to state that these world-class assets have reached an inflection point with the massive improvement in well productivity achieved in 2018. While our Wolfcamp wells stole the headlines this quarter with IPs reaching 4000 BOEs per day, our Bone Spring and Leonard programs have also consistently delivered outstanding results this year. In aggregate, between these three prolific formations, our average well productivity in the Delaware has improved by more than 70% in 2018 compared to legacy activity in the area. This step change in productivity is driven by the combination of good technical work from our staff and a more focused development program in the economic core of the play. Importantly, we are well positioned to accelerate Delaware Basin activity in the fourth quarter and into 2019 to further exploit the advantage these top tier assets provide. This plan will result in higher 2018 exit rate targets and will deliver around 40% oil growth in 2019. What excites me just as much as the strong volume growth is the 10% to 15% decline in per unit LOE rates we expect to achieve in 2019 due to the upfront investment we have made in scalable power, water and oil takeaway infrastructure. Now moving to slide 6, I'd like to shift my commentary to focus on the next steps associated with our STACK infill spacing program. As you are aware, our initial infill spacing pilots were designed with up to 12 wells per drilling unit to test the net present value upside associated with our acreage in the over-pressured oil window. With the data we received from our initial 12 well Showboat spacing project, we have quickly recalibrated our completion designs and flowback strategy to improve results at both Bernhardt and Horsefly, which were testing spacing of 8 and 10 wells per unit, respectively. Collectively, these infill tests have provided further advanced our understanding of the optimal development approach in the play, and as a result, our go-forward activity will be sized at four to eight wells per section in the STACK. As you can see on the map on slide 6, several of these lighter density spacing projects are achieving first production in Q4. Importantly, more than 75% of these wells are targeting the Upper Meramec sweet spot, and early results are confirming our view that this is the optimal approach to development. With this program, we expect production growth to accelerate in STACK before the end of this year, and this momentum underpins our growth expectations in 2019. Coupled with recent well costs declining by more than 30% versus legacy activity in the field, we expect these projects to deliver highly competitive returns. This will be the second highest funded asset in our portfolio next year, and with the vast majority of our Meramec resource undeveloped, we have no shortage of highly economic inventory in the STACK to drive future growth. The last U.S. asset I would like to discuss is the Powder River Basin, which is what I believe to be the best emerging growth opportunity in North America. With our Super Mario Turner program ready for full-field development and strong results from our Niobrara appraisal activity, we are ready to accelerate activity. By early 2019, we plan to double activity to four rigs and drill 50 new wells during the year. The vast majority of this activity will be low-risk, high-return Turner development activity that will drive strong production growth from this asset by mid-2019. We will also more aggressively delineate our Niobrara potential in 2019 with more than 10 new wells. Our significant Niobrara position of 200,000 net acres provides us the opportunity for a scalable and repeatable resource play that has the potential to be an important growth platform for Devon in 2020 and beyond. And finally, in Canada, as we disclosed a few weeks ago, the incremental facility repair work we identified during our turnaround efforts at Jackfish is now complete. Our Jackfish complex is fully operational, and in October we were producing at roughly 110% of nameplate capacity. However, with the weakness in pricing in November, we have adjusted our production rates lower at Jackfish. It is important to note that this proactive action was previously incorporated into our Q4 guidance we issued a few weeks ago. These curtailment decisions are based on real-time pricing, and we expect to continue to defer volumes in the future should these barrels continue to be extremely undervalued. As you can see on slide 7, when we look ahead to 2019, we have several initiatives in flight to help protect cash flow. We will continue to opportunistically add financial hedges. We have firm transport contracted for a portion of our volumes to access the advantaged Gulf Coast pricing and we are actively negotiating real terms for a tranche of our production. Looking beyond near-term pricing issues in Canada, I believe it is important to focus on the attractive long term attributes of this asset which include low declines, minimal maintenance capital and substantial free cash flow generating capabilities. When it comes to the valuation of this long-life asset, these unique attributes should be valued at a premium compared to other highly capital intensive plays across North America. In fact, just last year, in a more normalized price environment, our Canadian assets generated over $800 million in cash flow. At this point, I will turn the call over to Jeff for additional commentary on our financial results.
Jeffrey L. Ritenour - Devon Energy Corp.:
Thanks, Tony. I'd like to spend my time today discussing a few key financial highlights for the quarter. On slide 8, a great place to start is with NGL prices, which were a key driver of our revenue growth in the quarter. Devon is one of the largest producers of NGLs in the U.S., and with NGL pricing nearly doubling as compared to the same period a year ago, we are able to capitalize on this pricing tailwind through our secured flow assurance and access to the premium Mont Belvieu market. Approximately 98% of our volumes have access to Mont Belvieu, where waterborne access provides a structural pricing advantage compared to the landlocked Conway market in Kansas. Across our key NGL-producing regions, we have low fixed rates for transportation to the Gulf Coast, and we have contractually reserve fractionating capacity for our Y-grade barrels. In fact, we currently have excess fractionating capacity secured that supports our growth plans through the end of the decade. In addition to the stronger revenue stream, our quarterly results were also enhanced with excellent capital discipline. In the third quarter, our capital spending came in at 9% below the midpoint guidance point. This investment was completely funded within operating cash flow, and we generated free cash flow in excess of our investments of $249 million in the quarter. Combined with the proceeds from minor noncore asset sales that closed during the quarter, our total excess cash inflows exceeded $300 million in Q3. Moving to slide 9, I would now like to provide an update on the initiatives underway at Devon to strategically deploy the excess cash inflows we have generated year to date. I'll begin with our $4 billion share repurchase program, which at current prices, represents about 20% of Devon's outstanding common stock. As of today, we have repurchased approximately 67 million shares at a total cost of $2.7 billion. We now expect to complete our $4 billion share buyback program during the first quarter of 2019. In addition to our share repurchase activity, we are also returning cash to shareholders with growth in our quarterly dividend payment. Earlier this year, we raised our dividend by 33%, and with continued growth in our operating cash flow, owners of Devon can expect both a sustainable and growing dividend over time. And finally, I'd like to highlight the significant progress we made strengthening our investment-grade financial position. Year to date with the retirement of upstream debt, along with the sale of our interest in EnLink, we have reduced Devon's consolidated debt by more than 40% to $6 billion. Additionally, we expect to further reduce our leverage over the next months with the retirement of an incremental $257 million of maturing debt. With strip prices where they are today, we are within our targeted net debt to EBITDA ratio of 1 to 1.5 times and expect this ratio to trend lower as we execute on our multiyear plan. So in summary, we have made significant progress executing the disciplined financial strategy associated with our multiyear business plan. Looking to 2019 and even into the next decade, we will continue to prioritize the return of cash to our shareholders along with evaluating opportunities to further strengthen our investment-grade financial position. With that, I'll turn the call back over to Scott for Q&A.
Scott Coody - Devon Energy Corp.:
Thanks, Jeff. We will now open the call to Q&A. Please limit yourself to one question and one follow-up. If you have further questions, you can re-prompt as time permits. With that, operator, we will take our first question.
Operator:
Your first question comes from Subash Chandra with Guggenheim Securities. Please go ahead.
Subash Chandra - Guggenheim Securities LLC:
Yeah, thank you. Hi. Good morning, everybody. My first question is on an update on the noncore asset sales, so the divested assets you show on your ops report. The timing in proceeds, for instance, I think the Midland EUR was something that was expected near-term. Second, if there have been conversations with BPX Energy in the Eagle Ford. And third, your thoughts on Canada, which you referred to in your prepared statements, but thoughts on valuation of your Canadian assets given the Husky/MEG situation.
David A. Hager - Devon Energy Corp.:
Hi, Subash. Let me try to remember all those. But I think, first, on the noncore – this is Dave. On the noncore divestments, you can look at slide 10 of the operations report that gives you more detail on that. But we still have two data rooms open, the CO2 plugs up in the Rockies and then in the Central Basin platform, our production up on the Central Basin arch of the Permian Basin. So those data rooms are both open; you can see the scale of those divestments. We have on the floods in the Midland Basin, we have made a decision to divest the operated portion of that and to retain the non-operated portion at this point based on valuations that we received for those assets. So that process is essentially concluded. But that's the remaining asset. Those two assets are the ones that will reach the $5 billion target. Secondly, in regard to, and maybe Canada, I'm trying remember the third one here, question. In regard to Canada, obviously – I'm sorry. Go ahead, Subash.
Subash Chandra - Guggenheim Securities LLC:
I was just going to tell you that third one was – yes.
David A. Hager - Devon Energy Corp.:
Oh, BP. BP, yeah. Let me cover that one first. And we have had some very constructive conversations with BP early on. No firm commitments at this point, but we think it is very likely that we'll be moving to a third rig in the Eagle Ford, and I can tell you that all the conversation we've had so far have been constructive and positive, and we look forward to working with them on that position. So really all good news from that front. On Canada, obviously that was an attractive valuation, I think, that Husky made for MEG. I think you better obviously talk to them on the basis of that valuation and why they made that offer and what made that offer unique for MEG and why they're uniquely interested in the MEG assets, but obviously we think that is a marker that shows the long-term value of the assets that we have up there. So I think it was an interesting number, and it shows the value we have.
Subash Chandra - Guggenheim Securities LLC:
Right. Well, thank you. And my follow-up is could you just elaborate in the STACK pilots you talked about the flowback strategy in Bernhardt. And if you could elaborate on that and if that particular flowback strategy which seems to have hurt the performance was also used in some of your other pilots.
David A. Hager - Devon Energy Corp.:
We're going to have Wade Hutchings who's the Senior Vice President in charge of that area talk about that. Wade?
Wade Hutchings - Devon Energy Corp.:
So I think at a high level what I would note is the flowback strategy we used on the Showboat program looked very similar to what we'd done on past wells. We concluded that we may have been a little bit too aggressive on it. But we tested on Bernhardt and Horsefly just a bit more measured flowback approach. The early indications from that are, is that it (21:57) oil decline rates, broadly looks positive in terms of an operational (22:05). You'll us continue to optimize that as we move (22:08-22:12).
Subash Chandra - Guggenheim Securities LLC:
Okay. Thanks, everyone.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Arun Jayaram with JPMorgan. Please go ahead.
Arun Jayaram - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Yeah. Good morning. Arun Jayaram from JPM. Had a quick question on how you're thinking about light oil growth outside of the Delaware in 2019. I think you had like at a 40% oil growth target for the Delaware, but how are you thinking about the Eagle Ford, STACK and Rockies?
Scott Coody - Devon Energy Corp.:
Arun, this is Scott. At a high-level, obviously you hit on it right, the Delaware's going to deliver the most significant growth. Obviously, we highlighted in our operations report as well that the STACK will be a contributor to that growth as well from an oil perspective. It's a bit too early for us to give any sort of firm guide with regard to the Eagle Ford. We're still working with our partner, BP, on that particular budget and that should come out here early next year. And Rockies, you'll see growth in the Rockies as well, especially as we start to ramp up activity level that Dave talked about and Tony have talked about in their portions of the script. So you'll probably see that start kicking in around the midyear timeframe. But with regards to the specific targets beyond what we've put out for the STACK and Delaware, we'll firm up that guidance here in our Q4 call and with what we typically do, which would not only be capital for each asset but also the amount of wells we plan to bring online that supports that growth profile.
David A. Hager - Devon Energy Corp.:
As you say, Arun, the biggest driver of the U.S. oil growth is going to be the Delaware Basin. Now, I do want to make clear that we do have some growth expectations in there for STACK oil in 2019 as we now feel we have understanding much better of what the optimized spacing is, and our oil growth that we have built into our 2019 projection for STACK is based on (24:18) new optimized spacing of four to eight wells per drilling spacing unit.
Arun Jayaram - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Got it. Got it. Dave, you highlighted a series of initiatives to mitigate some of the margin risk that you have in heavy oil. I was wondering if you could maybe comment on the firm transportation to the Gulf Coast as well as the rail potential. And how do we think about the uplift you can get from both of those initiatives relative to what we see in our screens in terms of WCS pricing?
David A. Hager - Devon Energy Corp.:
And I'm going to let our real expert here in the room do that, Arun, as Kevin Lafferty's in charge of our marketing efforts.
Kevin D. Lafferty - Devon Energy Corp.:
Good morning, Arun. This is Kevin. First of all, on the capacity comment that we have going to the Gulf Coast, and we have previously talked about this, but we have about 10% of our blended barrels that we have firm capacity, and it's on the Enbridge system, and when they had the open season several years ago on the Flanagan South piece of that. So we are able to move those barrels all the way down to Houston, and that's been a part of our portfolio here for several years now. On the rail side, what we're trying to do here, really, the big picture is we're taking a portfolio approach. This is no different than how we have used the Delaware or the Mid-Con or any of our assets with every single product. So we use a combination of local sales, sales to other people that have firm, financial hedging, export, et cetera. So we're aggressively trying to find rail solutions. And the complexity of it is that it requires transportation of your barrels to a terminal; you need have tankage to be able to load into the railcars or the unit trains; sales, of course on the other end; and then putting all those pieces together to get this to move. But we see rail being a part of our portfolio for several years to come and really to bridge and derisk any mitigation of Keystone XL or Trans Mountain expansion in the future.
Arun Jayaram - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Great. Thanks.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Bob Morris with Citi. Please go ahead.
Robert Scott Morris - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.:
Thank you. Dave, looking at the STACK here, the Showboat, I know last quarter the IP30s were running only about 15% below your parent well type curve of 1.9 to 2.2 MBOE, although the IP90s this quarter look further below given lot higher decline. But the Coyote IP90s look a lot closer to that parent well type curve. So if you go to four to eight wells per section, what range of degradation versus that parent well type curve would you expect here going forward? And for reference, I know one of your peers here a few quarters ago noted about a 30% degradation in going to four wells per section per zone. So how do you view that, then, going forward in your program?
Wade Hutchings - Devon Energy Corp.:
Bob, this is Wade Hutchings. I'll take that one. First, let me clarify for you that the Coyote area there on the northwest side of the play, really a very unique reservoir. It's actually the lowest Meramec zone. As you've saw quarter over quarter, we've saw really strong well performance out of all the wells we've put in there. We like that area a lot, but our primary focus has been on the core of the play in the volatile oil window, Showboat and South, if you will. And the reservoirs there are actually different targets than what we're seeing at Coyote. So we broadly are seeing EUR and even IP degradation in infill mode. That's clear. We're not ready to give a new type curve today because the wells that we have coming online in the fourth quarter are really critical for us to narrow down what this new four to eight well per section well expectation will be. We of course have an internal model that we're tracking against. The early results we're seeing here in the first part of the fourth quarter are encouraging. They're essentially confirming that our approach at this lighter density spacing is working. I think if I just step back a little more broadly and indicate with Bernhardt and Horsefly, those two projects confirmed a lot of what we already saw at Showboat. And so just to remind you of that again, Upper Meramec performance much stronger than Lower; the impact of parent wells is important, and so being able to space the wells commensurate with where the parents are is critical. And then lastly, we've saw more communication between the upper and lower targets than we expected. So as we move forward with the programs that are going to come online in the fourth quarter and into next year, you'll see us essentially do three key things. What we're doing is focusing most of the wells in the Upper Meramec. As Tony noted, over 75% of the wells in the forward, say six- to nine-month program will be Upper Meramec. The second thing we're doing is we're adjusting the spacing for the parent wells in a way that we're trying to mitigate their impact. And then, lastly, we're driving our stimulations to a much more tailored, limited entry approach that really is fit-for-purpose for every reservoir target we're landing in. We're confident that that's going to give us results that come back closer to that original type curve expectation. And the last key point is, as we've driven the per-well costs lower, we're able to maintain the capital efficiency and rates of return that we expected as we moved into infill mode.
Robert Scott Morris - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.:
Great. Wade, that's great color. I appreciate that. Second question, just on Canadian production shut-ins; I think currently you're shutting in around 25,000 barrels a day, and I know that's sort of a month-to-month decision here as the price differentials move around. But given that this is SAGD, is 25,000 barrels a day, a quarter of your total production up there sort of the max that you can shut in without really causing issues with how the steaming works up there. Or is there more that you could potentially shut in as you go forward here?
Tony D. Vaughn - Devon Energy Corp.:
Bob, this is Tony here. I think you've kind of summed it up right as the 25,000 barrel a day curtailment that we have chosen to employ on this month-to-month decision is really predicated on the wells that we have reduced steam to are those that would be more capable of recovering back to original rate the quickest. And so we feel comfortable that we're not incurring operational risk. We think we're going to be able to put oil back into the pipeline within 5 to 10 days at the time we decide to put full steam back to it. So right now, the 25,000 barrel a day range is really about the area that we feel most comfortable with at this point. There is ability to increase that, that carries on an additional risk with that associated with winter-type activities
Robert Scott Morris - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.:
Great. Thank you. Appreciate it.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Doug Leggate with Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Please go ahead.
Doug Leggate - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Thanks. Good morning, everybody. Dave or Tony, I wonder if I could take you back to the Delaware for a second and talk a little bit about your plans for 2019. Todd looks like it's going to feature fairly prominently, but as I recollect, the Todd area is over-pressured. It's a little deeper. It's potentially got substantially better well type curves than your development program to date. So I wonder if you can speak to how should we think about the rate of change in your incremental well performance as we go into next year. And I'll take my second question as well as a follow-up, if I may.
David A. Hager - Devon Energy Corp.:
Great. And Doug, I'm going to have Rick Gideon, Rick, answer that. Rick's our Senior Vice President in charge of the Delaware so he can give you the best detail on that.
Richard A. Gideon - Devon Energy Corp.:
Hi, Doug. This is Rick Gideon. Great question. As we look into next year and if you take a look at slide 11 and 12 in our ops report, you'll see we've also had great results out of the Wolfcamp and our Cotton Draw area in our Lusitano. You can see our Wolfcamp averaged 4,600 BOE a day IP30s in that given area. And as you stated, there will be growth in the Todd area. You can see the second Bone Springs. I think you'll see focus in the Rattlesnake area along with the Thistle area and Cotton Draw also. So we will be spreading out our program to reduce risk as we execute through there. I think you'll see a pretty balanced program, Doug, between – whether it be – and I'm going to talk a little bit in pressure tanks. Whether it be your Leonard, your Bone Springs, or your Wolfcamp, you'll see a pretty good balance as we move through that program. As far as increased productivity, you've seen the step change improvements in 2018. We're going to continue with those improvements and hopefully continue to see that type of growth as we move into the next year.
Doug Leggate - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Guys, I don't want to press too much on this, but the guidance you've given for next year, you haven't been explicit about exit to exit, I guess, coming out of the Delaware. And this is my follow-up, actually, but I wonder if you could maybe just touch on what you think that might look like, because given the substantial improvement, Rick, and the productivity, it's a little tricky for us to figure out. Frankly, I think you might end up being a little conservative if these type curves play out the way we think they are. But what I'm really getting at is can you give us some kind of an idea what that exit could look like and whether your flow assurance still covers you on the kind of rates you could leave, you can exit 2019 with at that point?
Scott Coody - Devon Energy Corp.:
Doug, this is Scott. Obviously we'll firm up some of those targets as we head into our Q4 reporting for you. What I can tell you, obviously, is that directionally from just the cadence of the growth throughout 2019 you can expect a pretty steady ramp-up throughout the year. Won't give you necessarily any proportions there, but it's a pretty consistent stairstep each quarter as you go through 2019, a very healthy profile. But with regards to any sort of specific targets beyond what we've provided today, we're still in the process of refining well selection and activity plans and we'll provide a more holistic update here on our Q4 call.
Doug Leggate - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Scott, can you touch on the flow assurance issue at the exit of 2019?
Scott Coody - Devon Energy Corp.:
I'm sorry, Doug, you cut out there.
Doug Leggate - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Sorry, could you touch on the flow assurance at the exit rate coming out to 2019? I'm guessing you're – go on. Sorry.
David A. Hager - Devon Energy Corp.:
Well, yeah. Kevin can talk about it, but I mean the bottom line is here that we have everything in place to execute the program. But Kevin can talk to you a little bit more about the gas takeaway and processing, et cetera.
Kevin D. Lafferty - Devon Energy Corp.:
Dave's absolutely right. On slide 13 in the upper right, this is where we lay out a lot of the things that we've done we talked about previously, especially on oil. And so we feel really good about that with all the incremental pipes coming online from Cactus to you name it over the next couple of years. On the NGL side, we also feel very comfortable even with the EPIC conversion, we think there's plenty of NGL capacity, and we have access, not just getting out of the basin but also to Mont Belvieu, as Jeff had previously described. And on the gas side, even though we don't have firm, we still feel confident and comfortable that we have local sales and sales into the Western Coast going to the SoCal type of markets with people that have firm, and they're actively allowing us and telling us that they have room for growth for our 2019 plans. So we feel good about every single product, and we'll be able to get it out and get values as best we can throughout 2019 and beyond.
David A. Hager - Devon Energy Corp.:
And of course, beyond that, we have one of the most extensive water handling infrastructures in southeast New Mexico. And the permits are in place, essentially.
Doug Leggate - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Thanks for taking my questions, guys. I appreciate the answers. Thanks.
David A. Hager - Devon Energy Corp.:
Yeah.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Phillips Johnston with Capital One. Please go ahead.
Phillips Johnston - Capital One Securities, Inc.:
Hey, guys. Thank you. Just to follow up on Subash's question on Canada, you guys have highlighted over the past years that Canada may be an asset that could make sense to eventually monetize while also recognizing the challenge of getting maximum value. I assume that's still the case in the very near term just given the price environment, but as we look out to a time of improved pipeline and rail takeaway and more normalized pricing, has the appetite grown at the board level to get more aggressive in pursuing a potential sale?
David A. Hager - Devon Energy Corp.:
Well, I can tell you, we have an active discussion about Canada and every other asset in our portfolio at the board level on an ongoing basis. And the one thing that – we'll say there's some positive attributes to the Canadian position. We obviously have one of the premier positions in the SAGD and our Canadian team has done an outstanding job operating that asset through the years. And it certainly is the type of asset that in a normalized differential environment can provide the type of free cash flow each year that would be very helpful in a portfolio to offset the higher-decline, unconventional business. Now we obviously recognize that we are not in that environment right now with the high differentials that we are. And that's certainly – we have an active discussion on this asset relative to that. We understand, but it is a reality right now that it is one of the more challenged times to even think about monetizing that asset because of the very large differentials that we're currently encountering. So it is a discussion. I think there's been – if you look at the company historically, we've done about $30 billion worth of transactions over the last 10 years. So I don't think there's a lack of willingness in general to do what we consider is in the right interest of the company. It's just a matter of what truly is the right interest of the company given what the asset position is, what the market for the assets are, et cetera, and just making sure we're make the right decision.
Phillips Johnston - Capital One Securities, Inc.:
Okay. And then, yeah, it's clearly an asset that, as you mentioned, generates a ton of free cash flow in a more normalized price environment, and it is low decline. So you obviously can't comment on valuation levels, but in a theoretical sales scenario, would the multiple need to be higher than where your stock is currently trading? Or would you be willing to sacrifice some level of EBITDA dilution just in order to sort of streamline the portfolio to an asset base that has a naturally higher inherent growth rate?
Jeffrey L. Ritenour - Devon Energy Corp.:
Hey, Phillips. This is Jeff. Yeah, of course we think of all those things, as Dave talked about, as we evaluate these assets for potential monetization and acceleration of the value proposition. Clearly to the extent that we can, we look to monetize assets at multiples that are above our current valuation, but as you know, there's a lot of complexities and factors that we think through and discuss with our Board, especially on an asset like that, how strategic that is to our broader portfolio.
Phillips Johnston - Capital One Securities, Inc.:
Okay. And also maybe from a theoretical perspective, if it were to eventually be sold, would you be willing to take a mix of stock and cash or would you look for an all-cash deal?
David A. Hager - Devon Energy Corp.:
Well, I think that gets into the details of the transaction, but obviously we're, longer term, interested in returning value to our shareholders. And so we have to think about, if we took stock, how could we turn that into value for our shareholders.
Phillips Johnston - Capital One Securities, Inc.:
Great. Thank you, Dave.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Brian Singer with Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.
Brian Singer - Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC:
Thank you. Thank you. Good morning. Philosophically, when you look into 2019, how do you consider your willingness to raise CapEx in the event oil prices are higher or lower CapEx in the event oil prices are lower? Is that $2.4 billion to $2.7 billion kind of fixed above which if cash flow surprises to the upside, that all goes to shareholders? And how do you think about the downside case?
David A. Hager - Devon Energy Corp.:
We fundamentally believe that a consistent capital program are one of the keys to driving high returns on our capital program. So we do not foresee significant changes to the capital program, either higher or lower, unless we have the tremendous surprise, certainly more on the lower side than the higher side. And of course the one thing that we're monitoring very closely in regard to that is Canadian differentials and then what impact that may have on the cash flow for the company. But I do not anticipate us raising our capital program if prices are significantly higher. As we said in the prepared remarks, we think it's more important to have a consistent program. We'll deliver the highest return and cash flow above that would be directed towards return to the shareholders either through share repurchases, most likely through share repurchases and then through time through an increasing dividend.
Brian Singer - Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC:
Great. Thank you. And then my follow-up, on the Delaware Basin, one of the things you highlighted was the drop in unit LOE costs. Can you talk about the trajectory there? And where you see the opportunity for that to go in 2019 or beyond?
Richard A. Gideon - Devon Energy Corp.:
Absolutely. This is Rick Gideon again. We talked about the 10% to 15% decrease. What I hope you remember is over the last few years, we've provided and put in place the infrastructure from an electrical standpoint, from a water handling standpoint, and then from a takeaway standpoint, just as Kevin had talked about earlier. But I can tell you over the next quarters, you'll continue to see a step rate change quarter on quarter, and as we move into 2020, the same, just due to volume increases and the infrastructure being in place.
Scott Coody - Devon Energy Corp.:
And hey, Brian, this is Scott. Just to provide a few figures to that, with regards to our LOE in the Delaware, we've been running anywhere from $7.00 to $8.00 probably, $7.50 to $8.00 this year, and so certainly we'll take a step change down next year. And as Tony talked about in his remarks, it could be upwards of 10% to 15% lower when you look to 2019. So certainly margins will continue to expand in that high-quality play.
Brian Singer - Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC:
Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Ryan Todd with Simmons Energy. Please go ahead.
Ryan Todd - Simmons & Company International, Energy Specialists of Piper Jaffray:
Great, thanks. Maybe a follow-up on usage of this cash from earlier. It would appear that, at least on our numbers, the decision not to redeploy some of the cost savings from reduced STACK activity into 2019 is consistent with your commitment to sustainably grow cash distribution to shareholders. With the expected completion of the $4 billion buyback program in 1Q 2019, how should we think about the potential to maintain that active buyback program going forward versus balance with a dividend as a method of returning cash to shareholders?
Jeffrey L. Ritenour - Devon Energy Corp.:
Yeah, this is Jeff. No, as Dave said in his opening comments, that's absolutely our expectation. As we generate additional free cash flow in 2019 and beyond, number one, we're always going to make sure the balance sheet is in a spot that we feel comfortable about. We're good there. We feel really good about the targets that we've hit from a financial position. Our next look is obviously to talk about the dividend growth with our board, which we do each year. And then beyond that, it's more share repurchase, so we'll look again to go back to our board for additional authorization beyond the $4 billion we've already done to utilize that cash for return to shareholders.
Ryan Todd - Simmons & Company International, Energy Specialists of Piper Jaffray:
Great. Thanks. That's helpful. And then maybe one follow-up on the STACK. I know you said you're not ready to update the type curve at this point, but you have given us a 2019 kind of budget and production profile for the STACK. Can you maybe give us a rough idea of what you're assuming in terms of well productivity and well cost versus recent results for next year's plan? And maybe how your confidence and how conservative you feel that number is and maybe does it assume a similar oil cut versus the current STACK production?
Wade Hutchings - Devon Energy Corp.:
Ryan, this is Wade. I think a couple of pieces of context for you. The first order of control on our performance here is getting the well spacing right. And so all the tests we've been doing, all work we've been monitoring from industry results have been geared around getting that right. And you're now seeing us narrow in on what really is reverting back to our base case well spacing of four to eight wells per section. That's the most important thing for us to get right. We're now quite confident that we've got that band identified. In terms of expectations for next year, certainly baked into all the guidance you've saw come out is a revised view of what that lower density well spacing will yield. We're not going to reveal any new details of the type curve yet. That'll come early next year as we get these fourth quarter wells under our belt. I would say broadly, though, we are expecting strong performance out of these future programs, certainly stronger than what you've saw so far out of our higher density well programs. And so that's what we're going to be tracking internally on both IP, EUR and even oil cut. But I think the key is we're confident based on wells that we already have in the ground and producing that when you space these properly, when you offset them from the parent wells and you stimulate them in a targeted way, that we'll get strong results. I think from a capital side, that was part of your question as well, you'd certainly look to the results that we've delivered on Bernhardt and Horsefly as good guides for the ballpark we're aiming for next year in our infill Meramec programs.
Ryan Todd - Simmons & Company International, Energy Specialists of Piper Jaffray:
(48:14)
David A. Hager - Devon Energy Corp.:
Without going through a lot of detail, of course as we sit here today, we're nearly halfway through the fourth quarter, and so you can imagine we've brought online nearly half of the wells we planned to in the fourth quarter, and so there is some basis in fact based on the production data that we've seen to date with the wells that we brought on based on these four to eight wells. It's still early production data, but based on that data that we're very confident that we're delivering what we're talking about.
Ryan Todd - Simmons & Company International, Energy Specialists of Piper Jaffray:
Thanks. I appreciate the additional color.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Charles Meade with Johnson Rice. Please go ahead.
Charles A. Meade - Johnson Rice & Co. LLC:
Good morning, Dave, to you and your whole team there. I wanted to just chew on this STACK spacing test thing a little bit more. And you guys have given a lot of detail, but I just want to see if I could add a little bit more to it. You guys talk about going to four to eight wells per DSU. And it also sounds like you are going to be – most of those are going to be Upper Meramec, but they're not all exclusively Upper Meramec. So can you talk about how many different landing zones you're going to be looking at when you go from four to eight wells? And is it the case that, when you're talking four wells, it's one landing zone and when you're talking eight, it's two?
David A. Hager - Devon Energy Corp.:
Yeah, and I'm sure Wade will cover this, but I'll help him out a little bit here to start too. So remember the geology changes as you move across the STACK, too. So what is the optimum zone to drill and complete in as you move across the Meramec isn't necessarily the same across the entire play. So that's part of the answer to it. And Wade, you can go from there.
Wade Hutchings - Devon Energy Corp.:
Yeah, thank you, Dave. That's absolutely true. I think to limit the complexity of my answer I'll just focus on the core volatile oil sweet spot of the play. There still are literally three or four landing zones that we evaluate for every one of those DSUs. One of the key things, though, that we've learned from our early infill pilots is that those zones are communicating, certainly upon fracture stimulation, and it also appears communicating on a pressure basis during production. So now, we really are looking at that Meramec interval as one reservoir compartment, and that's really influencing how we are moving forward to develop it. Now specifically, you've already heard us note that the Upper Meramec has generally had much better well performance than the Lower, particularly as we've moved into infill mode. And so we will bias over three-quarters of the wells to the Upper. But where we see a viable Lower Meramec target, we will, on a case-by-case basis, put one or two wells in that in a DSU. And so, yes, you're generally correct. Getting up near the high end of that four to eight-well spacing likely means that we would spread the wells across two zones. The lower end of that spacing is much more likely to be focused just on the Upper Meramec.
Charles A. Meade - Johnson Rice & Co. LLC:
Got it. That's helpful.
David A. Hager - Devon Energy Corp.:
It's based on the reservoir is the answer, which obviously, you don't have all the data to see why we make those calls. But that's the bottom line is what reservoirs are developed where.
Charles A. Meade - Johnson Rice & Co. LLC:
Right, Dave.
Wade Hutchings - Devon Energy Corp.:
Yeah, and I think the last thing I would add to that, Charles, is we are also customizing the simulation approach on a well-by-well basis, depending on if it's an Upper Meramec or a Lower Meramec well, depending on what the parent well conditions are in that particular interval. And so we're literally taking every bit of data that we've collected over the last several years and optimizing stimulations on well-by-well basis.
Charles A. Meade - Johnson Rice & Co. LLC:
Got it, got it. And, Dave, I was going to say, you've talked about this before in previous quarters, particularly with those Coyote wells up to the northwest, that those are not as tightly spaced because of the reservoir properties. But my follow-up to that would be, and this may be a stretch, but how much of what you have learned in your development experience here in the STACK, how much of that is applicable to what you guys are doing in the Delaware Basin? And is it changing your appetite on your development plans in any way as we look at that basin?
David A. Hager - Devon Energy Corp.:
Well, I'll let Tony talk to about this in greater detail. But this is, philosophically speaking, and this is going to vary from area to area, the parent-child issues that we're talking about here in the STACK play are not unique to the STACK. They are going to be present, and they have been seen in every unconventional play to one degree or another. And what has happened here is we've reached a – from an aerial extent, it's not as large as some of the other plays. And so you've been seeing historically a lot more parent well results from, for instance, in the Permian Basin, and you haven't reached the degree of maturity in these other basins that you have in the STACK. And so we are – now it also depends, and the degree to which it applies depends on the reservoir properties. So it's not equally applicable in every play. But the basic phenomenon is certainly there and is something that we are transferring these learnings immediately to all of other plays. Tony, you have a lot more detail than I do on that. But I think it's a very relevant question, not only for Devon, but for the entire industry.
Tony D. Vaughn - Devon Energy Corp.:
Charles. I think you've followed us for a long time so you're aware that we participate in multiple unconventional resource plays and we've been through this same exercise in every single play that we've been in. So we've been transferring learnings from probably the plus 5000 lateral wells that we've drilled across our library of information and we knew this question was coming at us in the STACK play and the positive work that we have done is we've uncovered and feel like we now understand the optimum development scenario inside of really, inside of a calendar year for the most part. And so we reacted quite quickly there in comparison to other resource plays that industry has participated in. You saw a much more prolonged, painful experience in plays like the Eagle Ford. So we're responding quite quickly. The positive things about the Delaware, as Rick mentioned earlier, that there's three different pressure tanks that the guys have identified. And the column of resource there is quite thick, and the aerial extent for our plays is more spread out than what we have in STACK. And so we felt like the risk associated with learnings in the Delaware is less and it's going to come over time, but the guys have done a really good job and they're quite aware of the learnings that the STACK team has had. And so we've talked in the past, Charles, about being a very data-driven organization and we feel like is an area that we're able to capitalize on that pretty quickly.
Charles A. Meade - Johnson Rice & Co. LLC:
Thank you for the added detail.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Paul Grigel with Macquarie. Please go ahead.
Paul Grigel - Macquarie Capital (USA), Inc.:
Hi. I was hoping you guys could touch on Powder River Basin takeaway as you build into a 2019 program both on gas and oil and then also in the Mid-Con and in the STACK on any gas takeaway visibility that you have on potential constraints or how you've dealt with those issues going forward.
Kevin D. Lafferty - Devon Energy Corp.:
Hi, Paul. This is Kevin. First of all, in the Rockies, we feel really good just similarly to our other assets that we have ample takeaway and in fact, want to highlight on the Rockies page on our ops report that we have contracted our oil price even though recently it's blown out similar to the Bakken, we have contracted at really good numbers and protected our price there through our contract. So we feel good about gas, gas processing, takeaway, NGLs, the entire product mix up in the Rockies. Moving to the Mid-Con, we do have a lot of gas in Oklahoma, and that is something that we have operated here for a long period of time, and we know all the markets and the players and the Midship Pipeline with Cheniere that comes online here in 2019 will provide a lot of relief. So we are working the markets aggressively to make sure that we use our firm sales and every other avenue to clear the Mid-Con. Moving over to oil in the Mid-Con, we have access to the Gulf Coast via our Marketlink transportation capacity, and we have ample access and availability for NGLs as well. So again, all of our areas we feel very comfortable and convicted that we have plenty of room for takeaway and pricing for every single product in every basin.
Paul Grigel - Macquarie Capital (USA), Inc.:
Great. No. Thank you. And then I guess a higher level one. Could you give detail what the price deck is for your initial 2019 budget? And then as you think not only into the full 2019 budget but into the full kind of 2020 plan and beyond, is that a fixed price that you use going forward or is that willing to kind of float with the market as it may dictate?
David A. Hager - Devon Energy Corp.:
Well, when we looked at our – about a year ago, we talked about a capital program based on a $50 oil and $3 natural gas price and that we wanted to have a steady program based on that. So when you look at – and built into that though was the fact that we were going to be building our cash flow as we continue to grow our light oil, high margin production. Even in that flat $50 oil, $3 price deck, we had a little bit higher capital in 2019 than we had 2018, higher in 2020 than 2019, et cetera. And that's where we are today. So when we look at it, we have really – the 2019 program that we have laid out really is consistent with what we thought we were going to do in 2019 a year ago. And that again goes along with our philosophy that we think that we produce the highest returns when we have consistent plans relative to capital. Now, what the actual cash flow is for the company obviously is subject to current pricing, differentials, et cetera. But when you look at how we think about capital, it has not changed.
Paul Grigel - Macquarie Capital (USA), Inc.:
No. Great. Thank you.
Scott Coody - Devon Energy Corp.:
I show we're at the top of the hour. I appreciate everyone's interest in Devon, and if we didn't get to your question today, please don't hesitate to reach out to the Investor Relations team, which consists of myself and Chris Carr. Have a good day.
Operator:
Thank you. This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.
Executives:
[0FH2DB-E Scott Coody] David A. Hager - Devon Energy Corp. Tony D. Vaughn - Devon Energy Corp. Jeffrey L. Ritenour - Devon Energy Corp. Wade Hutchings - Devon Energy Corp. Richard A. Gideon - Devon Energy Corp.
Analysts:
Doug Leggate - Bank of America Merrill Lynch Scott Hanold - RBC Capital Markets LLC Robert Alan Brackett - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC Brian Singer - Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Subash Chandra - Guggenheim Securities LLC Matthew Merrel Portillo - Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, Inc. Biju Perincheril - Susquehanna Financial Group LLLP Paul Sankey - Mizuho Securities USA LLC David Martin Heikkinen - Heikkinen Energy Advisors LLC
Operator:
Welcome to Devon Energy's second quarter earnings conference call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. This call is being recorded. I'd now like to turn the call over to Mr. Scott Coody, Vice President of Investor Relations. Sir, you may begin.
[0FH2DB-E Scott Coody]:
Thank you and good morning. I hope everyone has had the chance to review our financial and operational disclosures that were released last night. This data package includes our earnings release, forward-looking guidance, and detailed operations report. Additionally, for the call today, we have slides to supplement our prepared remarks. These slides are available on our website, and we will make sure to refer to the slide number during our prepared remarks so that everyone can follow along. On today's call, I will cover a few preliminary items and then I'll turn the call over to our President and CEO, Dave Hager. Dave will provide his thoughts on the strategic direction of Devon, which we have branded as our 2020 Vision, and commentary on the next steps associated with this multiyear business plan. Following Dave, Tony Vaughn, our Chief Operating Officer, will cover a few key highlights and operating themes that are central to delivering our multiyear development plans. And then we will wrap up our prepared remarks with a review of our financial strategy by Jeff Ritenour, our Chief Financial Officer. Overall, this commentary should last around 15 minutes before heading into Q&A. I would also like to remind you that comments and answers to questions on this call today will contain plans, forecasts, expectations, and estimates that are forward-looking statements under U.S. securities law. These comments and answers are subject to a number of assumptions, risks, and uncertainties, many of which are beyond our control. These statements are not guarantees of future performance, and actual results may differ materially. For a review of risk factors, please see our Form 10-K. And with that, I will turn the call over to our President and CEO, Dave Hager.
David A. Hager - Devon Energy Corp.:
Thank you and good morning, everyone. The second quarter was another strong one for Devon. We are executing at a very high level on the strategic objectives underpinning our three-year business plan, otherwise known as our 2020 Vision. For today's call, my comments will be centered on the significant progress we have made year to date toward our 2020 Vision, and I will also touch on a few of the critical next steps associated with this differentiating multiyear plan. Turning to slide 2, the next item I'd like to cover today is the outstanding performance of our U.S. resource plays, which has consistently delivered light oil production results above our base plan year to date. This outperformance has been driven by the record-setting well productivity we have achieved across our franchise assets in the Delaware Basin and STACK. During the second quarter, the momentum from high-rate wells drove U.S. light oil production 12% higher than the previous quarter, exceeding guidance by a wide margin. With the strong well productivity we achieved through the first half of the year, light oil production is on track to advance 16% in 2018. This represents a growth rate that is 200 basis points above our original budget expectations heading into the year. Overall, we're off to a great start in exceeding the light oil objectives associated with our 2020 Vision. Importantly, we are delivering this incremental production growth within the confines of our original capital budget guidance range. With our go-forward capital plans, I also believe it is worth highlighting that even with the recent rise in oil prices, we have no plans to add incremental activity in 2018. While we have a very deep inventory of highly attractive growth opportunities within our portfolio, we fundamentally believe that a more measured investment program through all cycles is the correct strategy to manage costs, efficiently expand our business, and the appropriate pathway to deliver attractive corporate-level returns for shareholders. The next key message I want to convey is that Devon's cash flow generation is trending ahead of our budgeted expectations. In fact, with current strip prices, we expect to increase our upstream cash flow by more than 50% by year end compared to where we started the year. Furthermore, after expected capital requirements, we are in position to generate free cash flow in the second half of the year. While the advancement of our U.S. oil volumes is certainly a key contributor to this cash flow growth, our operating teams have also done a great job maximizing the value of every barrel we produce. Some of the best work we have done is on the pricing front, where our marketing teams have provided both flow assurance and access to premium pricing on the Gulf Coast for the majority of our U.S. oil production. Tony will discuss this topic in greater detail later in the call. But after including the benefits of firm transportation and attractive regional basis swaps, our light oil realizations year to date are essentially in line with WTI benchmark pricing. Looking ahead, we are well positioned to maintain this strong pricing in the second half of the year, which is very much in contrast to the weak regional pricing and takeaway constraints that have become a serious issue for many operators. In addition to strong price realizations, another key factor further supplementing our cash flow growth is the aggressive improvements we are taking to our cost structure. With the actions we have taken year to date, we are now on pace to reduce G&A and interest costs by approximately $475 million on an annualized basis. These substantial savings combined with improved operating costs across our U.S. resource plays will continue to put downward pressure on our per-unit cost through the end of the decade. With our Delaware Basin and STACK assets rapidly building momentum and operating scale, another critical component of our 2020 Vision is to further high-grade our resource-rich portfolio. During the quarter, we took a significant step forward with this strategic objective by selling our interest in EnLink Midstream for $3.125 billion. This highly accretive transaction provides a complete exit from our investment in EnLink at a value of 12 times cash flow, a substantial premium to Devon's current trading multiple. With the closing of the EnLink transaction, which occurred in mid-July, combined with other minor asset sales achieved to date, Devon's total proceeds from our divestiture program have now reached $4.2 billion. The next step in this program is to monetize an additional $1 billion of minor non-core assets across the United States by around year end, which would boost the proceeds from our divestiture program to more than $5 billion. Consistent with the framework of our disciplined multiyear plan, we are returning these divestiture proceeds to our shareholders in the form of a share repurchase program. In June, our board authorized an increase in our share repurchase program to an industry-leading $4 billion. While Jeff will provide more details on the progress of our share repurchase program later in the call, I will say that our buyback efforts have reached approximately $1 billion through the end of July. And given the value we see in our equity, we plan to accelerate the cadence of our share repurchase activity through the rest of the year. So to summarize, I could not be more pleased with the execution we have delivered to date on our 2020 Vision. Our light oil production is running ahead of plan. Our margin and cash flow are rapidly expanding. We expect to exceed our $5 billion asset sale target by around year end, and we are returning industry-leading amounts of cash to our shareholders. Briefly flipping to slide 3, while I will not cover all the details on the slide, I do want to be clear. We are not content with the substantial progress we have made to date. The management team at Devon is laser-focused on optimizing returns and ensuring capital efficiency for our shareholders. We will continue to attack costs and transition our product mix towards higher-margin barrels. We will be disciplined with our capital allocation and generate significant free cash flow. We will continue to evaluate strategic opportunities to high-grade the portfolio, and we will continue to prioritize returning increasing amounts of cash to our shareholders. And lastly, before turning the call over to Tony, I do want to touch on a topic we've got a lot of questions on recently, and that is our thoughts on BHP's announced sale of its Eagle Ford position. Overall, it is good to see a quality operator like BP acquire this position. We have had extensive experience working with BP in the past, both as partners in projects and on multiple asset sales as well. Since the announcement, we have not had any in-depth conversations with BP, so it's still a bit too premature to provide any commentary regarding the strategic direction of the assets at this point in time. However, for the near term, we do not expect any meaningful change in the activity levels that underpin our guidance for the second half of 2018. From a portfolio perspective, we do like our Eagle Ford position. DeWitt County is the economic heart of the play, and we have a multiyear drilling inventory that can generate outstanding returns, a stable production profile, and significant free cash flow for Devon. We look forward to discussing the future of the asset with our new partner, BP. With that, I'll turn the call over to Tony for additional commentary on our operations.
Tony D. Vaughn - Devon Energy Corp.:
Thank you, Dave. I'd like to begin by covering a few noteworthy operating highlights for the quarter. A great place to start is on slide 4, with our Delaware and STACK assets. These delivered 54% and 41% oil growth respectively year over year. This prolific growth was a driving force behind our U.S. oil production beat in the second quarter. The strong performance in the quarter was driven by another batch of prolific well results across the U.S. While the massive Boundary Raider wells filled the headlines last quarter, our Cotton Draw program topped the Delaware Basin highlight list in Q2 with a four-well package that achieved a combined 30-day IP rate of 14,000 BOEs per day. We also had several other prolific wells in the Delaware, with our top 10 wells for the quarter averaging 30-day rates greater than 3,000 BOEs per day. Our other franchise asset, the STACK, also delivered strong operating results in the quarter. Top wells in the play continued to routinely deliver initial production rates in excess of 2,000 BOEs per day, and the efficiencies associated with the Showboat and other initial infill projects are compressing cycle times and driving first production well ahead of planned. And while we are still in the early days of evaluating the performance of our Showboat infill project in the STACK, we have attained peak project rates. The average well at Showboat, normalized for 10,000-foot laterals, attained 30-day rates of approximately 1,800 BOEs per day. With this upside spacing test, from spud to initial flow rates, this project has largely exceeded expectations. However, based on early observations, it appears this development concept is not optimized for rate of return, and is likely spaced too densely. With our initial three infill projects, Showboat, Horsefly, and Bernhardt, we are testing 12, 10, and 8 wells per drilling unit. We intend to rapidly deploy the learnings from these initial spacing projects and our extensive library of information to optimize future STACK development plans. When I say optimize, I mean striking an appropriate balance between the rates of return and the net present value with our future activity, with a heavy preference towards enhancing project rate of returns. Next, I do want to make clear that the strong well productivity achieved during the quarter was complemented by expanding margins through both strong price realizations and improvements in our per-unit operating cost structure. Additionally, we were able to effectively control our capital spending, which declined nearly 10% from the previous quarter. In Canada, I want to commend the teams on our successful and safe turnaround work at Jackfish 1. While the turnaround efforts identified additional maintenance work requirements that delayed the facility ramp-up into the third quarter, this work will improve future operating efficiencies and allow our production to increase as the second half of the year progresses. All in all, our operations have delivered great results year to date, and we are well positioned to execute on the multiyear operating plans associated with our 2020 Vision. On slide 5, a key component of this strong execution that should not be overlooked is the operational planning and supply chain efforts to ensure the certainty of services and supplies necessary to deliver on our capital plans. First, I want to highlight that these efforts have largely mitigated industry inflation in 2018 and have allowed us to execute on our capital plans within the confines of our original capital guidance provided late last year. Furthermore, with the aggressive steps we have taken to decouple historically bundled services combined with our team's utilizing a much more diversified vendor universe, our strategy to achieve the best value for our LOE and capital dollars is working quite well. In fact, the vast majority of our services and supply requirements have been locked in through 2019. We are confident in our ability to keep rising industry costs in check at well below market rates through the end of the decade. This value-oriented approach is only available due to our detailed field development plans for each of our asset areas. Moving to slide 6, another area where we have done a lot of good work is in our marketing and flow assurance strategy, which provides the majority of our U.S. production direct access to premium Gulf Coast markets. Specifically in the Delaware Basin, we have been able to price-protect 90% oil volumes through firm transportation and attractive regional basis swaps. From a flow assurance perspective for our in-basin sales, we have contractual guarantees to flow 100,000 barrels per day through our legacy firm sales agreements that extend well into the next decade. All in all, these physical and financial swaps in the Delaware will allow us to maintain price realizations near that of WTI pricing. We are also well positioned in the STACK play. Through firm transportation on the Marketlink pipeline, approximately 75% of our oil volumes have direct access to premium Gulf Coast pricing. Also, we have firm transport agreements covering the vast majority of our gas production in the STACK. Coupled with basis swaps, we have effectively protected the price on the majority of our gas volumes. The last area I will touch on is our attractive WCS hedges in Canada. In 2018, we have roughly half our production hedged at $15 off of WTI. So in summary, with this good upfront planning work from our operations, supply chain, and marketing personnel, we are well positioned to maximize the value of our production in a tight market. With that, I will now turn the call over to Jeff.
Jeffrey L. Ritenour - Devon Energy Corp.:
Thanks, Tony. For my prepared remarks, I will provide an update on the shareholder return initiatives underway at Devon and discuss the next steps in the execution of our financial strategy aligned with our 2020 Vision. Moving to slide 7, I'd first like to cover how the sale of EnLink impacts Devon's financial statements. With our second quarter reporting, the financial results associated with EnLink will be reclassified as discontinued operations in our consolidated financial statements. Subsequent to the closing of this transaction, which occurred in mid-July, EnLink's financial results will no longer be consolidated with Devon's upstream business. To further assist investors with this transition, we have provided pro forma financials in a recent Form 8-K filing to better highlight the historical performance of our go-forward upstream business. As Dave mentioned earlier, we're returning the sales proceeds from the EnLink transaction to our shareholders through our share repurchase program. In June, our Board of Directors authorized a 300% increase in our share repurchase program to $4 billion. At current pricing, this represents over 15% of our share count and is the largest share repurchase authorization of any E&P company in the industry based on a percentage of market capitalization. As of today, we have repurchased nearly 5% of our outstanding shares at an average price of $41 per share, bringing the total cost of our program to approximately $1 billion. For the remaining $3 billion of our authorization, we plan to utilize a series of accelerated stock repurchase programs, otherwise known as an ASR. We expect our initial ASR to commence in early August once the blackout period related to our Q2 earnings release expires at the end of this week. The ASR programs will allow us to repurchase large amounts of our outstanding shares on an expedited basis. In fact, we expect to fully complete our $4 billion share repurchase program during the first half of 2019, well ahead of our board's authorization that extends through the end of the year. Detailed forward-looking guidance on share count is provided in our press release issued last night. Looking beyond our current $4 billion share repurchase program, we continue to evaluate opportunities to further increase cash returns to our shareholders. With our disciplined multiyear plan, we expect to generate substantial amounts of excess cash at today's commodity prices via our core operations and planned divestiture activity. We'll utilize excess cash to manage to our stated debt targets and expect to approach our board regarding an increase to our share repurchase program. Lastly, regarding our debt position, we have now successfully reduced our consolidated gross debt to just over $6 billion with the sale of EnLink. This represents a decline in our debt of approximately 40% year to date. And at today's commodity prices, we are within our targeted net debt to EBITDA ratio of 1 to 1.5 times. With strip prices where they are today, we'd expect this ratio to trend toward the low end of this targeted range over time, further strengthening our investment-grade financial position. With that, I will turn the call back over to Scott for Q&A.
[0FH2DB-E Scott Coody]:
Thanks, Jeff. We will now open the call to Q&A. Please limit yourself to one question and a follow-up. If you have further questions, you can re-prompt as time permits. With that, operator, we'll take our first question.
Operator:
Thank you. . Our first question comes from the line of Doug Leggate from Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Your line is open.
Doug Leggate - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Thanks. Good morning, everyone. Dave, with your share price reaction today, I hope you're going to get busy with the share buybacks. I have two quick asset-related questions, if I may, probably both for Tony. Tony, first of all on Showboat, the work we've done in the past, my understanding was that the Lower Meramec extends out in that northeastern portion of your acreage where the Showboat test has been. I'm just curious if you could give us some color as to how many of the wells that you drilled there were in that Lower Meramec area. Did that influence the average production rate? And what's the read-through as you move into the thicker part of the section with Horsefly and Bernhardt?
Tony D. Vaughn - Devon Energy Corp.:
Thanks for the question, Doug. In our Showboat project, we had – about half the wells landed in the Upper Meramec, half in the Lower Meramec. We saw a little bit of an increased performance from the Upper Meramec. And I'm going to turn it over to Wade. And, Wade, if you can give Doug a bit of a description on the subsurface of where Horsefly and Bernhardt would go, that would be great.
Wade Hutchings - Devon Energy Corp.:
Sure, will do, Tony. Doug, again, half the wells were in the lower, half in the upper. We actually saw about a 25% performance difference between those in that the upper was much more prolific. You're correct, as you move south and west of Showboat into the core of the play, we see the Lower Meramec targets have even higher productivity. And so as we develop both Horsefly and Bernhardt and other projects like those, we have increased confidence that those zones will work in an infill development scenario. And so although they didn't work as well as we thought they would at Showboat, we still feel like they have great potential across other parts of the play.
Doug Leggate - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Wade, did you get the cost benefits that you were expecting?
Wade Hutchings - Devon Energy Corp.:
Yes, we broadly have. I think that's the most successful part of Showboat is on a pace and cost perspective, we met or exceeded our expectations. We were 40 days ahead of plan on Showboat. We saw cost reductions relative to our parent wells. We're even seeing more cost performance on the Bernhardt and Horsefly. Those two projects, which are both all 10,000-foot wells, are projected and they're pretty much done at this point to come in between $7.5 million and $7.1 million per well. So we're pretty encouraged about the cost efficiencies we're seeing.
Doug Leggate - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Thanks. My second asset-related question, Tony, again, it might be for you, but the Delaware, obviously you have been still drilling random one-off couple of pairs wells all over the place toward Rattlesnake and so on. But it looks to us that as you prepare the program going into 2019, the cadence of the completions is obviously an issue, it looks like, as you move into development mode. But I'm curious if you can just walk us through what role the Delaware plays in the dip in your production in the third quarter and how that might ramp as we go into 2019, particularly given how prolific those wells are. Asked differently, it looks like your 2019 program is going to be some pretty strong wells versus the type curve that you based your 2020 plan on. I'll leave it there, thanks.
Tony D. Vaughn - Devon Energy Corp.:
Doug, I'm going to start off here. Then I'm going to ask Rick to fill in a little bit of details there. But I think we really haven't been drilling a lot of couple-well random wells in the Delaware. We have been appraising a little bit, and you heard us announce the Boundary Raider wells last quarter, which were quite prolific. But for the most part, probably 70% of our activity in the Delaware is really associated with these multi-zone projects that are going quite well. And so we're reaping a lot of the cost and schedule benefits that Wade just described in the Showboat project. They're also happening in our larger multi-zone projects in the Delaware. And so while these projects can be a little bit lumpy, we've sized them to have fairly contiguous – or continuous growth on both oil and cash flow. We're pleased with what we're seeing right now. We're starting to move some of our work in the Delaware from the traditional Second Bone Spring type activity that we've had to the Wolfcamp. And this is really an effort to optimize, again, the developments of the Wolfcamp horizon there. But you're right. You're going to start seeing – we saw a little bit of, I say, a slowdown in pace of IDs in Q3. That's what caused a little bit of the softness in our forecast in the Delaware. That really picks up at the end of the third quarter. And into the fourth quarter, we'll have a dramatic increase in ID count going forward. But with that, Doug, I'm going to let Rick describe just some of the work that we're doing.
Richard A. Gideon - Devon Energy Corp.:
Great question, Doug, and this is Rick Gideon. Very much in line with what Tony just said, I'll tell you right now when you look at our ops report, we talk about our Seawolf and Lusitano, Medusa, Fighting Okra, Snapping, and a North Thistle program. So you're seeing that progression into these programs of many different sizes. And what I'll tell you that's based on is the great technical work provided by these teams. It's the understanding of the dependent and independent flow units, whether that be in the Leonard, Bone Spring, or Wolfcamp. So what I think what you'll see are some different sized programs going forward here that we are seeing outstanding results from the multiple horizons, from the multiple flow units in our spacing, not just horizontally by vertically. You've seen some great well results in the Second Bone that tie directly to better technical understanding, better planning, and quite honestly flawless execution as we move through this. With that, we're able to utilize different flowback techniques, and I think you're starting to see the results of just great teamwork, great planning, great execution, and very good technical understanding.
Doug Leggate - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Thanks, guys. I appreciate the full answer. But just to be clear, the Boundary Raider wells, if that's the type of well that constitutes the program in 2019, that's substantially better than the type curve that's set in your current program. Is that correct?
Tony D. Vaughn - Devon Energy Corp.:
The Boundary Raider wells are special wells, Doug, and we've got some offsets to drill to the Boundary Raider, which are going to be a really good development, and we're going to be kicking that area off later this year. But as you look at our current operations report, we just reported some really good wells in the Cotton Draw area and the Second Bone Spring. Those are also really good wells. So I'd say in general, our performance from our wells is better than it has been in the past. The subsurface understanding from the technical teams is just outstanding. So this commitment to the data acquisition and being data driven has really paid off for us.
David A. Hager - Devon Energy Corp.:
In general, I think, Doug, the comment is absolutely the Delaware is running ahead of plan.
Doug Leggate - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
That's the answer I was looking for. Thanks, Dave.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Scott Hanold from RBC. Your line is open.
Scott Hanold - RBC Capital Markets LLC:
Thank you. Hey, a follow-up question on Showboat. You did obviously mention there were some I guess a bit stronger declines. Was that related to the parent well being obviously three years old in the area, or was it more the Lower Meramec? And if you could, also comment on what you saw with the Woodford well.
Wade Hutchings - Devon Energy Corp.:
Sure, Scott. This is Wade Hutchings again. I think there are three big preliminary insights we've taken from Showboat. The first is the difference in performance between Upper and Lower Meramec, which we just discussed. The second really relates to your question, and that is a very clear trend that any of the wells in either the upper or the lower that were drilled in the parent well's shadow, those underperformed relative to any of the wells that were in more of what we'd call the greenfield parts of those sections. And underperformance would be reflected at both an IP and even at a decline level. The third key thing we observed is we're seeing some initial indications that there's more vertical connectivity between these reservoir landing zones than we may have saw in other parts of the play. And so those are really our key preliminary observations so far from Showboat.
David A. Hager - Devon Energy Corp.:
Scott, this is Dave. I might add that I think at this point, though, you have to be extremely cautious about extrapolating any results that we have from Showboat to the remainder of the STACK play. It is very early on. We are taking the learnings there and we're adjusting our go-forward development plans in terms of spacing. The ones beyond Bernhardt and Horsefly we're adjusting the spacing, as we think that's the right thing to do in the short term. But it's not clear that that's the only answer that's going on here too. And so I would certainly be extremely careful that we have had some challenges here at Showboat. We knew we were testing the upper limits of the spacing. That's proved to be true, but we're learning a lot from that. And I think that there's a lot more to learn, and we'll learn a lot more as we proceed through the next several development projects here. But to take the results from Showboat and extrapolate a general learning across the entire play, I think it's very premature to do that.
Scott Hanold - RBC Capital Markets LLC:
Okay, understood there. And on the Woodford, did you have a commentary, any comments on the Woodford well?
David A. Hager - Devon Energy Corp.:
So that Woodford well would be one of the furthest north Woodford oil window wells, and right now it's still in a phase where it's still in flowback. So we don't really have a lot of hard conclusions to make on the Woodford prospectivity extent at this point.
Scott Hanold - RBC Capital Markets LLC:
Okay, understood. And then in the PRB, it looks like you guys are looking to expand your program next year to maybe four rigs. Can you discuss what you're seeing there and what we should be looking forward to?
Tony D. Vaughn - Devon Energy Corp.:
Scott, I think again, the work that we're doing, primarily in the Turner, is really providing a lot of good insight. We've done some spacing tests there. We're very pleased with what we're seeing. Every well that we bring on is really some of the higher rate of return wells that we have. So we're starting to define what the development plan will look like. We're also having some positive results in the Niobrara. We haven't commented on that specifically yet, but both of those parts of our program are developing very well. And so I think what we're trying to infer is later this year we'll not only pick up the second rig, pick up the third rig, and then in 2019 expect to be in full development mode there with increased activity beyond that. So everything that we're seeing in the Powder is developing just to plan.
Scott Hanold - RBC Capital Markets LLC:
Okay, so it's definitely in the Turner and both in the Niobrara what you're seeing results that could be – you could be active on next year?
Tony D. Vaughn - Devon Energy Corp.:
Primarily. And not to shortchange some of the work that we typically do in the Parkman and the Teapot, those always deliver good results. But really, as we've commented in the past, the Turner is more of a resource opportunity for us, and that's what is being uncovered right now. So that will really drive a lot of the pace of activity in the Powder.
Scott Hanold - RBC Capital Markets LLC:
Got it, thank you.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Bob Brackett from Bernstein Research. Your line is open.
Robert Alan Brackett - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC:
I had a question on your comments trying to unpack this notion of strategic high-grading. If we look two to three years into the future, what assets are you highly certain stay in the portfolio, and what assets do you think could find a home for someone else? And then I have a follow-up.
David A. Hager - Devon Energy Corp.:
Hi, Bob. First off, we believe very much in the multi-basin approach, and I think you're really seeing the benefits of that approach right now as we speak. We're having outstanding results in the Delaware Basin. Tony just described some very promising results that we're seeing in the Powder. Overall, we have a strong inventory in the STACK. We have admittedly had a little bit of disappointment here, not tremendous, but there's a little bit of short-term with Showboat with one development in the STACK, but with 90% of our development still in front of us we're adjusting quickly, and we still have some strong, really strong return opportunities in the Eagle Ford as well. So we believe that this multi-basin approach that allows us to shift capital between several high-return basins is the absolute right approach, and it really optimizes returns versus being overly dependent on one specific play. But we look at a lot of different things when we look at what may or may not remain in the inventory. We look at what is our overall depth of our development inventory, what's the intrinsic value of the asset that we may be looking to monetize, and what is its production and cash flow contributions. We look at what are the prevailing market conditions out there. And obviously, we have teams that are very engaged and understand the market from both a buy and a sell standpoint extremely well. And when we identify an opportunity to pull the trigger, we're not afraid to do so. If you look at our history here, we've had about $30 billion worth of transactions over the past decade. I'm not going to telegraph today specifically what may or may not, but those are the key issues that we look at here. We think we have a very strong inventory where we are, and we'll continue to evaluate conditions as we move forward.
Robert Alan Brackett - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC:
Okay. So getting a little more granular, when you talk about the spacing tests in the Turner, are you aligning those wellbores parallel or perpendicular to that old Cretaceous Seaway?
Richard A. Gideon - Devon Energy Corp.:
Most of those are running in a north-south direction throughout the play. And we're spacing those – in the areas that we have two horizons in Upper and Lower Turner, there's a staggered pattern. And so it's not just about one horizon. It's understanding the different horizons and what the interaction is between the two.
Robert Alan Brackett - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC:
Great, thank you.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Brian Singer from Goldman Sachs. Your line is open.
Brian Singer - Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC:
Thank you, good morning.
David A. Hager - Devon Energy Corp.:
Good morning, Brian.
Brian Singer - Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC:
In the Eagle Ford, I realize per your comments, you haven't had discussions with the new operator. But what rig count or level of activity do you think would be optimal for Devon in an accelerated case? And if this were to happen, would you reduce capital elsewhere in the portfolio, or would you use your free cash flow or balance sheet to increase activity in the Eagle Ford?
David A. Hager - Devon Energy Corp.:
We're currently running two rigs there, Brian. I think in an optimized scenario, we'd run three rigs. And so frankly, that's not a large incremental capital spend if you look at the overall size of the company as Devon. So it's barely a material question, I guess you'd say, as to whether you'd drop activity elsewhere or use some of the incremental cash flow. If we were going to do that, that would be a 2019 event. We anticipate that would not be a 2018 event that we would change the program. And those returns, just to refresh everybody, are as strong as anywhere in our portfolio, particularly given the fact that we're getting WTI-plus pricing on those barrels. And we've done a great job with locking in well above the current market pricing in the Delaware Basin, incidentally obviously also in our heavy oil in Canada, but still not as strong as we see in the Eagle Ford. So with those flow rates compared to the costs, they compete extremely well. But we don't see rapidly increasing the capital, but we do see one incremental rig would probably be helpful in 2019.
Brian Singer - Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC:
Great, thank you. And then my follow-up is with regards to the company's CapEx. You reiterated that you expect CapEx to trend towards the top end of guidance. Could you give us a little bit more color on the push and pull there, what you're seeing on the inflationary front, what you've done from an activity perspective relative to your expectations and whether the Permian completion crew on for less time during the second half is helping to keep CapEx in check, and what you think the risk around the top end of guidance is to the upside and downside?
Tony D. Vaughn - Devon Energy Corp.:
Brian, number one, I think as we mentioned in some of my prepared remarks, our supply chain and our operating teams have got a three-year plan that we are sticking really close to that allows us to go out and secure services for an extended period of time compared to a lot of our peers. So we feel like we have mitigated any of the stress or the inflationary factors that others are probably seeing in the 2018 timeframe. So we're doing some really good work. We're not outspending the cost and schedule management of our projects, as Wade and Rick have already talked about, have been on track. So we're doing really well there. We think our OBO spend has actually been an increase and a little bit of a surprise to us early this year, and starting to see some benefits from that. So that's really keeping us at the top end of the curve. But I think what you'll see is we had a very hot Q1 and have tapered back a bit, as you noticed, a 10% reduction in Q2, and we'll manage our spend in the second half of the year according to our original plan. And we just think this exercise is good discipline, and it's there to maximize the return of our projects.
David A. Hager - Devon Energy Corp.:
Basically, Brian, we're executing our plan a little ahead of schedule. We have a little extra OBO spending. It's not on the cost side because we're managing that extremely well. And certainly the decision not to add a third frac crew in the Delaware was not driven around trying to stay within capital. It was driven by a returns decision. And so basically, we are able to have one frac crew, I think, Rick, you'd say per four rigs that we have working out there, and we're able to keep up with it. If we added a third frac crew right now for just a few rigs, basically what that would mean is when we come early 2019, we would have two long-term frac crews, one of which probably wouldn't have any work to do given the timing of all of our schedule. So from a return standpoint, that doesn't make sense. And so it makes more sense to stay with the two who can manage the eight rigs. Now we do see going to three frac crews in 2019 as we continue to increase the activity.
Brian Singer - Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC:
Great, thank you very much.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of from Subash Chandra from Guggenheim. Your line is open.
Subash Chandra - Guggenheim Securities LLC:
Thanks. The Showboat, I'm just curious if the results there have any impact on the prior exit rate guidance in STACK, or if it has any sort of tangible impact on your growth expectations in the intermediate term.
David A. Hager - Devon Energy Corp.:
I'd say it has no impact on our growth expectations under our Vision 2020. We have enough projects of different types and high quality that this, our Vision 2020 is absolutely totally intact. Now, could it perhaps have a minor amount of downward pressure? The question might be asked too. Why didn't we raise oil production guidance, I guess, for the remainder of the year? And admittedly, because of the Showboat issues, we thought it was more prudent until we see more data and we get the Bernhardt and Horsefly wells on to not raise production guidance, even though we exceeded it in Q2. So yes, throughout 2018 I would say that that did impact our short-term thinking on raising production guidance. But we have a very deep inventory of projects throughout the company that the 2020 Vision and our growth that we anticipate in oil production, U.S. light oil production, is absolutely intact. We're seeing outperformance, for instance, as we talked about, in the Delaware Basin. We're seeing some very strong upsides for the Powder River Basin, great returns from the wells we're seeing in the Eagle Ford as well. So maybe a short-term timing impact on production, but absolutely the potential that we chose to guide conservatively with regards to. But no implications at all to the long-term vision of the company.
Subash Chandra - Guggenheim Securities LLC:
Okay, I appreciate that answer. My follow up is, I apologize if I missed this in your earlier commentary, the Turner spacing test. So what is that architecture? What is the spacing test exactly? And would this be one of the first spacing tests in the Turner – in the play?
Richard A. Gideon - Devon Energy Corp.:
This is Rick Gideon again. There have been different spacing tests. And again, I want us to be careful on which part of the field we're in, whether you have an Upper Turner, a Lower Turner, or a Middle Turner. We've tested between two and four wells per section in each of those horizons. And so these latest tests were two wells per horizon or four wells per section and an upper and lower. I think you've seen some competitors do very similar testing. And as I said, we tested at four earlier in the year.
Subash Chandra - Guggenheim Securities LLC:
Okay, thank you for that clarification. Thanks.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Matt Portillo from TPH. Your line is open.
Matthew Merrel Portillo - Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, Inc.:
Good morning, Dave and team.
David A. Hager - Devon Energy Corp.:
Good morning.
Matthew Merrel Portillo - Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, Inc.:
The first question I wanted to ask is with regards to STACK completions. You mentioned that you're working to mitigate some of the parent well impacts after viewing the initial data on the Showboat project. I was curious if you could talk about some of the completion changes you might be envisioning, if at all, around proppant loading, cluster spacing, and fluid use that might help optimize development on a go-forward perspective.
Richard A. Gideon - Devon Energy Corp.:
Matt, I think we are in the middle of evaluating the specific completion design we had on Showboat and have already taken those learnings and started to apply them even to Bernhardt and Horsefly, which have already been stimulated. And so that's a pretty active process for us. I would say the broad trend is we are a little bit more of a macro scale. We're looking at specific reservoir targets and their rock properties, and we are beginning to more proactively adjust the stimulation parameters based on each of those reservoir targets. Again, some of that's learnings from Showboat. Some of that's learnings that we saw in other projects. On maybe a more specific stimulation approach, I would say that what we're doing is we're beginning to apply much more limited entry type approaches. We've tested a few things in Horsefly and Bernhardt that we think have promise around different technologies that allow us to really target exactly what part of the reservoir, what part of the lateral. And a couple of those is we've tested some NCS sleeves in one of these projects that we think actually has a lot of potential for us. So you'll see us continue to evolve that in much more of a reservoir-by-reservoir specific targeted way.
Matthew Merrel Portillo - Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, Inc.:
Great, thank you. And then my follow-up is a question regarding Jackfish. I was wondering if you could provide additional color on the maintenance requirements that were identified that took down Q3 guidance to some extent. And as we look forward to Q4, any color or context around how we should think about the peak rates mentioned in the ops report?
Tony D. Vaughn - Devon Energy Corp.:
Matt, I've got to remind us, the maturity of our Jackfish 1 project is different than it was probably the last turnaround. In fact, we've been producing J1 over ten years now, so our turnarounds at J1 were more extensive than they had been at some of the younger projects. You've got to remember, we're operating some of these steam lines at 450 to 500 degrees F. So in the process of cooling and heating these lines, we tend to see movement, and those lines are designed to move. We have pipe racks to guide those lines through there. During the ramp-up period for J1 after the turnaround was over, we saw increased stress in one particular area, so we immediately took the project back down and went through an extensive evaluation and mechanical integrity inspection. And at the same time we were doing that, we took a good look at one of our oil lines as well. And so that really deferred our startup at J1 by about 15 days. It also deferred the startup of a couple of new pads out there. So we're getting a little bit of a slow start in Q3 associated with those couple of events. And then as we ramp the project back up, we fully expect to grow back into something near the historical rates that we've seen in the past. But again, you've got to always recognize that as these projects mature, there's going to be slightly more maintenance associated with them. And the SOR [Steam/Oil Ratio] is just slowly starting to creep up. So there's a little bit less steam capacity that we have available to work with. Overall, the projects are working extremely well. And outside of these two unplanned events, we're back to operating as normal.
Matthew Merrel Portillo - Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, Inc.:
Great, thank you very much.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Biju Perincheril from Susquehanna. Your line is open.
Biju Perincheril - Susquehanna Financial Group LLLP:
Hi, good morning. Dave, looking through your various spacing pilots in the STACK, Delaware, Powder, it looks like the approach you're taking is that the initial projects, the spacing is something on the aggressive side, and then you're working backwards. And I don't know if that's a fair assessment. But if it is, is the idea that you can get to the final answer in fewer iterations, are you getting more information in the pilot that actually has some interaction between wells?
David A. Hager - Devon Energy Corp.:
Absolutely, I think you've nailed it. We want to learn early because we recognize in all of these plays that the vast majority of the development is in front of us. And so we have, just as we did, if you go back even a few years ago on completions, and when you may have said historically we're pumping 600 pounds of sand per lateral foot, we could have easily taken the approach to go to 800 or 1,000 and test out what it is there. But we took the approach there that says let's go on to a much higher concentration, up to 3,000 pounds or so, and learn early where the upper limits are, and then we can dial back a little bit. I think you can take to a large degree that analogy and apply it to what we're doing with our spacing tests. We chose to learn early. Frankly, we also collected a huge amount of data on the Showboat project, which we think is going to help inform us as well. And we recognize that it was aggressive, the spacing, but we'd rather if we were going to have an issue, we'd rather learn that early versus just slowly, incrementally up the spacing and get large – long distance into the development of the overall play before we really learn what's optimum. So there's some pain with this process, we admit that. We're feeling it a little bit today. There's no question about that. But we think that overall, that is the right long-term decision, and leads to a higher returns and higher value in the long run.
Biju Perincheril - Susquehanna Financial Group LLLP:
Got it, that's very helpful. Do you think at this point if you're looking at STACK or the Delaware that you – how close do you think you are to that, call it, optimum spacing?
David A. Hager - Devon Energy Corp.:
I'm going to let the guys that are a little bit closer – I think you're going to hear an answer that's fairly granular. It's going to vary still across the play and across the formations. I don't think there is an easy answer, and I think we're still – we're learning a lot more, but I think we'll continue to learn, but we've certainly accelerated the learning. So, Wade, do you want to kick it off and maybe Rick will make a comment from the Delaware perspective?
Wade Hutchings - Devon Energy Corp.:
Sure. So from a STACK perspective, we are systematically testing multiple density frameworks and spacing stacking frameworks. So as you saw, the next two projects that will come online within a couple of weeks here in August, Bernhardt and Horsefly, are testing slightly lower density than the Showboat. We have other projects that you'll see over the next six months where we may only test one layer, the Upper Meramec. And so that will vary across the play. Ultimately, we think as we approach the end of the year, we're going to have a number of operated tests under our belt that will range in spacing anywhere from 6 to 12 wells per section. And from that, we'll be able to essentially narrow down what the go-forward development plan will look like. But I think to Dave's point, that's unlikely to be just one model for the entire play. We see that these reservoir targets change quality as we move around the play. We know that pressure, conditions, and even fluid windows change. And so we will ultimately have a fairly customized development framework for multiple sub areas of the play. And we think as we approach the start of next year, we'll be in a much more solid place to lay that out, both internally and externally.
Richard A. Gideon - Devon Energy Corp.:
Biju, this is Rick Gideon. For the Delaware, very similar. What I'll tell you is it's dependent, as stated, whether it be in the Todd area, Thistle, Cotton Draw, Rattlesnake, or Potato Basin, the five areas that we talked about. What I'll tell you also is it ties very much to flow units. It's not just a single horizon. It's not just the spacing. It's the staggered pattern. It's in the Leonard. Whether you have A, B, and C, how many wells does it take to most efficiently drain that and have the highest rate of return while preserving value? We're probably, in the Bone Spring, we're probably the most mature as we talk about it. Leonard following, and Rattlesnake is where we're doing a lot of the testing right now in the Wolfcamp, which is probably less mature on the spacing. And as we take a look in the Wolfcamp, we have to keep in mind that we're looking at your Third Bone Spring, your Wolfcamp X and Y, your Wolfcamp 110, 120, and 130 as one single flow unit. So as we model that, we have to understand the stimulated rock volume by the types of jobs we're pumping, and what is that horizontal and vertical reaction between those wells.
Tony D. Vaughn - Devon Energy Corp.:
Biju, this is Tony. I just wanted to highlight too that we probably have on the operated side alone, we probably have a library of 6,000 horizontal wells that we worked in. And the majority of those have had parent/child relationship issues that we've worked through. We're going to continue to learn in all of these plays. The technology continues to change. The guys are getting smarter. New data just leads to new developments. We're seeing some of the best completions we've made in the Eagle Ford today. We're seeing some of the best completions we made in the Cana-Woodford project towards the end of 850 wells. Same thing in North Texas in the Barnett. We're seeing some of the best wells now after 3,000 or 4,000 wells have been drilled. So this is not a single answer that you're going to hear from us. We're going to continue to learn and grow.
Biju Perincheril - Susquehanna Financial Group LLLP:
Very helpful, I appreciate that detailed answer. Thank you.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Paul Sankey from Mizuho. Your line is open.
Paul Sankey - Mizuho Securities USA LLC:
Based on everything that you said, and thanks for all the detail, it does seem that it's difficult for you, for a couple of reasons, to accelerate in the Eagle Ford or the Delaware much more than the pace you're already running. So I wonder. Does that mean that we're very, very dependent on results coming through in the way you've described? And I totally understand that you're saying that there's 90% of the work still to be done. But do you think that the risk has become higher on the STACK in terms of its importance for you and Vision 2020? Thanks.
David A. Hager - Devon Energy Corp.:
No, Paul. I don't feel that way. We do plan to have an escalating program in the Delaware Basin as we move into 2019. We haven't laid out the specific plans, but I think we're anticipating having on the order of three or four more rigs working out there. That's directionally the way we're thinking right now. We're looking at adding more rigs in the Powder River Basin. Tony talked about that. So no, I don't think that's true. I think that we've had outstanding results in both of those areas as well. The Eagle Ford we're not counting on for significant growth, but we do think we can stay – keep production flat there with three rigs, and we think that will be optimum. Having said that, we do anticipate STACK is going to continue to grow as well. So I don't want to talk down the STACK at all because we're learning very quickly and we're adjusting and we anticipate a very successful STACK program going forward. It is going to be an important part of our future.
Paul Sankey - Mizuho Securities USA LLC:
Understood. Thanks, David. Can I just ask a follow-up, which is totally unrelated really? Has your hedging strategy changed subsequent to Vision 2020? Thanks.
David A. Hager - Devon Energy Corp.:
No, it hasn't. We fundamentally think that, first off, that we want to have a consistent and predictable capital program because we think that having a consistent program where you're not ramping up activity or not ramping it down is how you deliver the highest returns. If you rapidly increase the capital program, you may not be ready from a technical standpoint or an infrastructure standpoint to be able to deliver optimum returns. And if you ramp down the capital program, you lose some of the efficiencies that you get with a certain level of scale on these – when you have multiple rigs working, for instance, on an individual development. And so you lose some of those efficiencies if you ramp it down significantly. So with that thought process in mind, we think it's important to underpin the cash flows of the company to make sure that we have a certain level of consistency in cash flows to be able to fund the capital program. And so we are doing this through a systematic program largely, where we're reaching out 18 months and hedging production at any given time. We do leave some room for discretionary hedging as well, but it's all within the context of underpinning the confidence in what prices we're going to receive. Obviously, we're hedging on the differentials too, which has provided quite a bit of benefit for us this year in terms of pricing. But we think that's fundamentally important to deliver consistent, strong returns with our programs.
Paul Sankey - Mizuho Securities USA LLC:
Thank you, sir.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of David Heikkinen from Heikkinen Energy Advisors. Your line is open.
David Martin Heikkinen - Heikkinen Energy Advisors LLC:
Good morning, thanks for taking the question. One thing I was curious about is the importance of sequencing your drilling, then completions, then putting pads on production across the section and then across multiple sections, and any differences that require sequencing between what you've seen in the Delaware, STACK, and now the Powder.
Richard A. Gideon - Devon Energy Corp.:
Hi, David. This is Rick Gideon. Absolutely there's some difference in sequencing, and the teams do a great job on the planning side of this, whether it be with our frac crews, rigs, or other services. It's very dependent on how many horizons you're going after. In the Delaware, we've done some tests where you're hitting six different horizons. What I'll tell you is through our learnings and understanding the flow units, you'll see some areas, especially in the Delaware, where you'll see some smaller projects where we develop one flow unit, move away and then come back and develop the next flow unit to better utilize our surface facilities and infrastructure within the field, as well as water, et cetera. So I think as we move through this, you're going to continue to see how we change based on spacing, but based on flow units also.
David Martin Heikkinen - Heikkinen Energy Advisors LLC:
Just to follow up on that, how do you think about the scale of required capital and working capital that is invested and what's required for – a company the size of Devon can fund it, but maybe smaller companies, that becomes pretty important and pretty meaningful as you think about that fixed horizon development and the number of wells potentially. Have you done any math on how much capital you actually put into the ground before you turn it on production?
David A. Hager - Devon Energy Corp.:
We do. We've done a lot of math on I'd say what is the optimum size development to optimize the rates of return. I think we probably have the capital to fund whatever is the right answer, but we do think that there is an optimum size in many cases to what optimizes the rates of return.
Wade Hutchings - Devon Energy Corp.:
This is Wade. I would just jump in real quick and say we're absolutely focused on the fact that time is money, and so we're very much focused on eliminating as much float in the schedule or white space in the schedule as we can. But to Rick's point, this often is a very technical set of judgments. For instance, on the two Showboat sections, there were six pads, and the team had a very specific order of which pads to stimulate and which pads to flow back in what order because of the impact that they would have on surface operations and even subsurface operations. And so it's an area of intense work for us.
David Martin Heikkinen - Heikkinen Energy Advisors LLC:
That's helpful, and just one final. What are your current well costs? You gave us the Delaware – or you gave us the STACK. What are the Delaware and Eagle Ford current costs?
Jeffrey L. Ritenour - Devon Energy Corp.:
Dependent on the horizon in the Delaware again and dependent upon some of these new, we're in the $7 million range on a lot of these down to about $5 million – $5.5 million on some of the shallower zones. We're very early as we move into the Wolfcamp, but we are seeing progression of that lowering.
Tony D. Vaughn - Devon Energy Corp.:
David, the Eagle Ford wells lately, we're putting a little bit larger sand loading in these wells, and they're running about $6.5 million.
David Martin Heikkinen - Heikkinen Energy Advisors LLC:
Thank you.
[0FH2DB-E Scott Coody]:
All right, we're now at the top of the hour. We appreciate everyone's interest in Devon today. And if we didn't get to your question, please don't hesitate to reach out to the Investor Relations team, which consists of myself and Chris Carr. Have a good day, thank you.
Operator:
This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.
Executives:
Scott Coody - Devon Energy Corp. David A. Hager - Devon Energy Corp. Tony D. Vaughn - Devon Energy Corp. Jeffrey L. Ritenour - Devon Energy Corp. Wade Hutchings - Devon Energy Corp. Kevin D. Lafferty - Devon Energy Corp. Richard A. Gideon - Devon Energy Corp.
Analysts:
Robert Scott Morris - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc. Arun Jayaram - JPMorgan Securities LLC Ryan Todd - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc. Charles A. Meade - Johnson Rice & Co. LLC Subash Chandra - Guggenheim Securities LLC Matthew Merrel Portillo - Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, Inc. Doug Leggate - Bank of America Merrill Lynch Brian Singer - Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Jeffrey Campbell - Tuohy Brothers Investment Research, Inc.
Operator:
Good morning. Welcome to Devon Energy's First Quarter 2018 Earnings Conference Call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speakers' remarks, there will a question-and-answer session. This call is being recorded. I'd now like to turn the call over to Mr. Scott Coody, Vice President of Investor Relations. Sir, you may begin.
Scott Coody - Devon Energy Corp.:
Thank you and good morning. I hope everyone had the chance to review our financial and operational disclosures that were released last night. This data package includes our earnings release, forward-looking guidance, and detailed operations report. Additionally, for today's call, we have slides to supplement our prepared remarks. These slides are available on our website, and we will make sure to refer to the slide number during our prepared remarks so that everyone can follow along. With today's call, I will cover a few preliminary items. Then our President and CEO, Dave Hager, will provide his thoughts on the key takeaways from the quarter. Following Dave, Tony Vaughn, our Chief Operating Officer, is going to cover a few key operational highlights and review our infill development strategy in the STACK. And then we'll wrap up our prepared remarks with a brief financial review by Jeff Ritenour, our Chief Financial Officer. Overall, this commentary should last around 10 minutes. Then we'll open the call for Q&A. I would like to remind you that comments and answers to questions on this call today will contain plans, forecasts, expectations, and estimates that are forward-looking statements under U.S. securities law. These comments and answers are subject to a number of assumptions, risks, and uncertainties, many of which are beyond our control. These statements are not guarantees of future performance, and actual results may differ materially. For a review of risk factors, please see our Form 10-K. And with that, I'll turn the call over to our President and CEO, Dave Hager.
David A. Hager - Devon Energy Corp.:
Thank you and good morning, everyone. For the purpose of today's call, my comments will be centered on four key messages. Turning to slide 2. The first key message is that we are raising our 2018 guidance for U.S. oil production due to the outstanding operational performance we are experiencing in the Delaware and STACK. With this production raise, the midpoint of our updated guidance for 2018 U.S. oil production now represents an estimated growth rate of 16% compared to 2017, up from our previous guidance of 14%. The improved outlook is driven by higher well productivity, as our development activity is focused in the economic core of the Delaware and STACK, and the efficiency gains we are achieving at our multi-zone developments. With our initial multi-zone developments, we have executed these projects with greater efficiency than planned, which is compressing cycle times and pulling forward incremental activity into 2018. Given this outstanding execution, it is likely upstream capital spending will trend toward the top half of our full year guidance range, benefiting our production profile in 2018 and 2019. I want to emphasize the only reason CapEx is trending towards the top end of guidance is because we're completing our plan 2018 program quicker than anticipated, and we'll most likely accelerate some 2019 program into 2018. This is a good news story. The next key point is we have the marketing arrangements and supply chain in place to deliver on our growth plans. With regional takeaway constraints becoming a serious issue for the industry, our marketing plan has provided us both flow assurance and price protection across all areas of our asset portfolio. Specifically in the Delaware Basin, through firm transport on the Longhorn Pipeline, we have access to premium Gulf Coast oil pricing and have regional basis swaps near WTI pricing covering the remaining production sold in the basin. These physical and financial hedges are becoming increasingly valuable with Midland differentials currently trending towards $10 off WTI. Given our advantaged location in Southeast New Mexico, we also have good line of sight to move our Delaware gas production, as we flow our volumes directly to the West Coast completely avoiding the WAHA hub. In the STACK, we have direct access to Cushing for WTI pricing. And we have firm transport agreements covering the vast majority of our gas production. The firm transport of gas in the STACK and our basis swaps provide effective price protection in 2018. The last area I will touch on is our attractive WCS hedges in Canada. In 2018 we have roughly half of our production hedged at $15 off WTI. On the supply chain front, the service market is certainly tight right now, especially in the Permian Basin. However, our supply chain team has proactively secured rigs, supplies, and pressure pumping services in our high activity basins at competitive prices to execute our capital plans in 2018 and 2019. The multi-year develop plans and commodity hedging program we've designed for the Delaware and STACK have provided Devon the opportunity to secure longer term relationships at below market rates with top providers. So to summarize, Devon is in great shape to deliver on our growth initiatives, as our marketing and supply chain are providing certainty of execution. The third key message is that Devon will efficiently grow cash flow throughout the remainder of 2018. With current strip prices, we expect to increase our upstream cash flow by approximately 35% by year end compared to first quarter levels. This will be driven by three factors. A key contributor to our cash flow growth is an increase in higher oil margin production in the U.S., where we are on pace to deliver exit rate growth of approximately 30% in 2018. Next, we expect higher margins in Canada over the remainder of 2018, due to WCS prices recently improving by more than $10 per barrel compared to the lows experienced in Q1. The third factor contributing to higher margins over the remainder of 2018 is the aggressive steps we are taking to improve our cost structure. With the ongoing restructuring of our workforce, along with the recent tender of high interest debt, we are now on pace to reduce G&A and interest costs by $175 million annually. And my final key message is we successfully advanced several shareholder friendly initiatives during the quarter. In March, our Board of Directors approved a 33% increase in our quarterly dividend and authorized a $1 billion share repurchase program, which we are on pace to complete by year end. Jeff will provide more details on these initiatives later in the call. Looking ahead, as we generate free cash flow from operations and asset sale proceeds, we will continue the return of cash to our shareholders through our share repurchase program and growth in the dividend. Given the potential for significant cash inflows through asset sales, I'd like to provide additional clarity to our portfolio simplification strategy. Moving to slide 3. As we discussed at length in the past, given our resource rich asset base in the Delaware and STACK, we see the potential to monetize in excess of $5 billion of noncore assets. And while we've already achieved $1.1 billion of noncore asset sales to-date, we have multiple initiatives underway at various levels of maturity to further simplify and focus our portfolio footprint. To be clear, we're not going to become a Delaware and STACK pure play. But we are targeting a more focused asset portfolio. We are actively pursuing larger asset transactions. And we are concurrently marketing roughly $1 billion of smaller, noncore assets sales throughout our portfolio. While there are a lot of initiatives going on, I do want to emphasize that we're working each of these opportunities with a high sense of urgency. And with this point I'll turn the call over to Tony Vaughn for additional commentary on our operations.
Tony D. Vaughn - Devon Energy Corp.:
Thanks, Dave. I'd like to begin by covering a few noteworthy operating highlights on slide 4. A great place to start is with our Delaware and STACK assets, which delivered 20% plus oil growth in the quarter, a driving force behind our Q1 oil production beat. This strong growth was driven by record setting well productivity. For the quarter this activity was headlined by two stunningly prolific Boundary Raider wells in the Delaware Basin that achieved a combined 24-hour IP rate of approximately 24,000 BOEs per day, of which approximately 80% is oil. 24,000 BOEs per day. These are the highest rate wells brought on in the 100-year history of the Delaware Basin. The STACK also delivered outstanding new wells with the most prolific rates belonging to four wells from our Coyote development that delivered average 30-day IPs of 4,400 BOEs per day per well. We also had a strong quarter of efficiency gains, as we shifted towards multi-zone developments. In the Delaware, this included record drill times at Boomslang and drilling improvements at Seawolf that translated into savings of $800,000 per well. In the STACK, our Showboat execution was exceptional, as we attained first production 40 days ahead of plan. Overall, a great start to the year for our capital programs. And these outstanding well results reflect the quality of our underlying asset base and our staff's top tier operating capabilities. I'm very proud of the effort that they have put in this quarter. Moving to slide 5. I'd like to focus my remaining commentary on a subject that is of great interest to our investor base right now, and that is our STACK infill spacing strategy. As many of you who follow the play closely know, our STACK acreage position resides in the economic core of the play within the volatile oil window. This sweet spot delivers the best combination of high oil productivity and lower well cost. Devon's asset quality, technology leadership, and technical understanding of the play have consistently produced best-in-class well results in the play, which compete very well for capital within our high quality asset portfolio. Now that our leasehold drilling is largely complete, the next step for our STACK asset is to optimize the infill spacing with our multi-zone development projects. With more than 95% of our Meramec resource undeveloped, the next three projects – Showboat, Horsefly, and Bernhardt – are designed to inform our future development strategy. These projects will test development concepts, including well densities of 9 to 12 wells per drilling unit, and are designed to improve returns through multi-layer well stacking, intra-layer well staggering, and further completion design improvements. The most advanced of the initial infill projects is our Showboat development. Showboat is in the early stages of flowing back. And we are excited with the efficiency gains and cost savings we achieved compared to the legacy parent well drilling results. Drilling times were 30% faster, and we had a 2 times improvement in completion stages per day due to the benefits of zipper fracking. Due to these efficiencies, we achieved cost savings of $1.5 million per well at Showboat versus legacy activity in the area. For a better understanding of vertical and horizontal communication between wells at Showboat, we are staggering well tie-ins over the next two months and expect to obtain peak rates by mid-year. Even with conservative well productivity assumptions for our next three infill projects, we are projecting burdened wellhead returns of 40% at today's strip pricing. These will be great projects for Devon. With a lower capital and LOE cost associated with these multi-zone developments, we expect our go-forward infill development returns to be superior to the historic well results in the play. And in addition to the strong project level economics, I would like to emphasize that we have a huge runway of resource and inventory, providing a multi-decade growth opportunity for Devon. We have 130,000 net acres in the core oil window of the play with most of these acres possessing multiple landing zones that are highly economic at today's prices. We have conservatively risked our Meramec inventory at six wells per surface section. But we fully expect infill drilling results to increase our inventory over time. And with that, I will turn the call over to Jeff.
Jeffrey L. Ritenour - Devon Energy Corp.:
Thanks, Tony. As Dave mentioned in the opening, I will provide an update on the shareholder return initiatives underway at Devon and will touch on our debt position and interest cost. However, first I'd like to cover the new revenue recognition accounting rules that changed the way our financial statements present certain processing fees for natural gas and natural gas liquids. Historically, these processing fees have been recorded as a reduction to revenue. But beginning this quarter, the fees were recorded directly to production expense. This accounting change had no impact to earnings or cash flow, but the change did result in increased upstream revenues and increased production expenses. Our historical results have not been restated in our financials. But we have provided a table in our earnings release restating the historical result so the quarter-over-quarter trend is evident. Moving to slide 6. In March, we announced our $1 billion share repurchase program. To date, we have repurchased 6.2 million shares of stock at an average price of $33 per share, bringing the total cost of our program to $204 million. We expect to complete this stock repurchase program by the end of 2018. In addition to our share repurchase authorization, our board also approved a 33% increase in our quarterly common dividend. The new quarterly dividend rate will be $0.08 per share, compared to the prior quarterly dividend of $0.06 per share. From a dividend policy perspective, we are targeting a manageable payout ratio of 5% to 10% of our upstream operating cash flow. With our upstream business well-positioned to efficiently expand cash flow for the foreseeable future, we expect to reward shareholders by sustainably paying and steadily growing the dividend over time. Turning to our debt position. We successfully repurchased $807 billion (sic) [$807 million] (15:42) of notes in the first quarter, reducing our gross upstream debt to $6.1 billion. Strategically, this repurchase focused on higher coupon maturities in an effort to lower our go-forward interest expense by $64 million annually. Looking ahead, with the retirement of the $277 million debt that will mature over the next nine months, we will have completed our $1 billion debt reduction plan. And with that, I'll turn the call back over to Scott.
Scott Coody - Devon Energy Corp.:
Thanks, Jeff. We'll now open the call to Q&A. Please limit yourself to one question and a follow-up. If you have further questions, you can reprompt as time permits. With that, operator, we'll take our first question.
Operator:
Your first question comes from Bob Morris with Citi. Your line is open. Bob Morris?
Robert Scott Morris - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.:
Good morning. Very nice results this morning, Dave.
David A. Hager - Devon Energy Corp.:
Thank you, Bob.
Robert Scott Morris - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.:
As things are running ahead of schedule and you look to pull some activity forward from 2019, I know previously you were planning on dropping three to four rigs at year end. Is that still the case? Or are you going to keep all 20 of the current rigs that you have operating going to the end of the year now?
David A. Hager - Devon Energy Corp.:
Well, we're still making an assessment on that, Bob, and exactly what we're going to do. The thing that we like so much is that we have, with these multi-zone developments, that we are seeing such efficiencies by maintaining the same rigs, the same crews, that we are actually executing our program quicker than we – we knew there was going to be efficiencies. But we're seeing even more than we anticipated. The costs are lower and the efficiencies are greater. So what we are really focused on overall are the returns. And we don't want to risk degrading those returns by dropping very efficient rigs and crews. And then picking up potentially new rigs and crews at the beginning of 2019, where we don't see as much efficiencies as we're currently seeing with the program. So that's the thought process we're thinking through. We have a decision to make here. And we're making the comments, we're kind of guiding towards the top end of guidance, because we think that probably some of this were going to continue on. But exactly how much of it, we're still making a final decision. It has to do with the maturity of the projects. But a key point I want to emphasize, it's a returns based decision to make sure the projects are ready and balanced out with the efficiencies we're receiving with these rigs and crews, versus the risk of losing that if we drop the rigs.
Robert Scott Morris - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.:
Sure. That makes sense. Thanks. And my follow-up question is, you had a small, but very interesting joint venture you announced in the Barnett Shale. And is that something you'll continue to look to do more of, given what the environment is for natural gas asset packages out there in the market? Or how do you think about that, versus stability to continue to monetize the Barnett and doing more of these such deals? Does that necessarily preclude you from continuing to look to monetize the Barnett, even parts that might be subject to some of these sort of deals?
David A. Hager - Devon Energy Corp.:
Yeah. Great question, Bob. And I want to be clear. This does not change anything with regards to the potential long term strategy of what we do with the Barnett. This is just we think a very creative business opportunity to take an asset that has identified development opportunities and to form relationship with a great company, such as DowDuPont, where we essentially are now bringing them in on a promoted basis to drill some wells that otherwise we would not execute. So it'd just be an asset that we're not maximizing the value of with these pud opportunities just sitting there. So we are bringing them in with the promote. It makes the returns to Devon competitive with the rest of our portfolio. So it's we think a great way to bring value forward in the short term. But in no way does this change our optionality or decision process in regards to what we'll do with the Barnett in the long term. We're still working through that. Obviously it's more challenged at these lower natural gas prices. Also provides benefit to EnLink, which accrues back to us as well obviously by additional provided incremental EBITDA, of which we are the majority benefit. So we think it's a real great shorter term solution and decision that brings value. We like DowDuPont. And there may be possibilities that we can expand this relationship in the future for similar type situations.
Robert Scott Morris - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.:
No, that's great. Thanks a lot, Dave. Appreciate it.
David A. Hager - Devon Energy Corp.:
Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Arun Jayaram with JPMorgan. Your line is open.
Arun Jayaram - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Yeah, good morning. Tony, I was wondering if you could talk a little bit about the three spacing pilots. And you mentioned that you kind of conservatively risked the production from these pilots. And I was just wondering if you could maybe comment a little bit around your risking for the projects.
Tony D. Vaughn - Devon Energy Corp.:
Yeah, Arun, I think we've commented in the past that we've got quite an extensive library of information and participated in about a dozen different pilots in the play. These are three more projects that we have that are going to fill in some key data points with us. I have to tell you – and I'm going to turn the call over to Wade Hutchings in just a minute, who is managing that asset base for us. But, Arun, there's more to it. It's a more complicated question when we manage these unconventional reservoirs than just simple spacing. And Wade will be able to dial into that a bit. But we fully utilize this database that we have. We built the 3D earth models. We put a lot of time and attention into the technical competency that we put into it, at least to the optimum design and also leads to the granular attention to execution that we have in our technical groups. You're seeing some prolific well results in both the Coyote areas and across STACK, and the same thing in the Delaware Basin. None of that's really by accident. It's all by just competency and technical fact based work that the guys are doing. So, Wade, why don't you describe a little bit more what you're trying to get out of the pilots? Maybe even explain a little bit of how we work in the greenfield and the brownfield type areas.
Wade Hutchings - Devon Energy Corp.:
Sure. Thank you, Tony. When we look at these three projects that we've highlighted here, we certainly have a range of spacing that we're testing, all the way from 12 wells per section in Showboat to 10 wells per section at Horsefly, and then 9 at Bernhardt. All three of those projects are in the core of the Meramec play. All three of them are landing in the best reservoir, which is essentially what we call the Meramec 200. And then they all are staggering wells in between a couple zones just lower than that core reservoir. So they're all testing roughly the same reservoirs but at slightly different staggering and well spacing. And we anticipate learning a lot from these, in addition to the other industry and non-operated investments we've made. Ultimately, we're testing a lot more than spacing though, because we recognize that the stimulation approach in an infill mode needs to be different than it was in the parent HBP mode. And so we're testing multiple things in each one of these projects. We'll certainly give you a lot more detail on that as those projects come online. But we're really looking at how do we optimize the stimulation spend to get the most value out of each of these projects. The Showboat particularly is one where we've invested a lot of science dollars around monitoring the pressure between wells and between layers and trying to determine if the tweaks we're making to our stimulation design are being effective or not.
Arun Jayaram - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
That's really helpful. I wanted to shift gears a little bit, talk about the asset sales program. Dave, you highlighted kind of multiple packages, maybe $1 billion of potential proceeds. We also note that I think 28,000 acres of that is in kind of the central Delaware Basin. But as you receive some asset sale proceeds, what is the first call on that cash to the extent you get to that $1 billion? How do you plan to invest that capital?
David A. Hager - Devon Energy Corp.:
We see the bulk of that going to share repurchases.
Arun Jayaram - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Great. Thanks a lot, Dave.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Ryan Todd with Deutsche Bank. Your line is open.
Ryan Todd - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Great. Thanks. Maybe if I could follow-up. I appreciate all the detail you just gave on Showboat, focused a lot on the below ground stuff. You clearly had a very encouraging performance on cost and efficiencies on the larger development there. Can you talk a little bit about above ground, what you've seen in terms of your ability to drive down cost and capture efficiencies? And what you think that means for your programs going forward?
Tony D. Vaughn - Devon Energy Corp.:
Ryan, this is Tony. I think we've talked over the last probably two years about this multi-zone concept. And we felt like all told, we had the ability to increase our valuations about – up about 40% in comparison to the historic or the legacy type development concepts that you see across these basins. And we fully expect to have not only just surface efficiencies associated with quicker and more efficient permitting with larger permits being established at the onset, because we have a full surface description of how we're going to flow into the centralized production facilities. We are designing these, and a concept we have here is really a drill-to-fill concept. And so what you will see in these general areas is we'll build a centralized production facility that'll be able to handle multi-pads as we go forward. And so while we will not design for a peak rate on a given pad, we'll design for a very efficient and cost effective design that will maximize the rate of return for that project. And then as additional pads come on, they will flow back into that same centralized production facility. So if you start looking at the burdened cost for all the developments that will ultimately flow into a common centralized tank battery, it's not going to be the $750,000, $800,000 per well when we were just doing the conventional legacy type work. It's going to be much more efficient than that. And it varies project-by-project, but it'll certainly be below about $0.5 million per well. And that just continues to gain efficiencies as we go forward, because these centralized production facilities are structured to be around for a long period of time as the wells in the given area come on and maximize that space.
Ryan Todd - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Thanks. And so what you've seen so far, is it in line with the 40% uplift that you kind of envisioned over the past couple years?
Tony D. Vaughn - Devon Energy Corp.:
Actually, Ryan, we knew we were going to be learning into this space. And we've completed one, the Anaconda Project in the Delaware Basin. We're virtually through the Showboat project in STACK. And we have other projects going on. We're actually accelerating our learnings much quicker than what we anticipated. So we're quite encouraged with this. We know this is the direction that we're going to go. We're already starting to look at – potentially we have about 30 different projects that are in one stage of our project management or another. And so we're approving projects and reviewing projects right now all the way out into mid and late 2019. So this is really a well-oiled machine. And the efficiencies associated with this concept are coming quicker and are probably larger than what we originally anticipated.
David A. Hager - Devon Energy Corp.:
So, Ryan, Tony described a surface facility savings. Obviously we've previously talked about the drilling cost savings as well. And then also we are seeing real efficiencies on the hydraulic fracturing side too. And, Wade, I think you have a stat probably just for example at Showboat on the stimulation side of how much more efficient we are with that versus historical.
Wade Hutchings - Devon Energy Corp.:
Sure, Dave. Specific to Showboat, what we found there was essentially we completed the stimulation of that project in about essentially two-thirds of the time that we had planned. So we anticipated some of those efficiencies, as Dave noted. But we were pleasantly surprised that we found even faster learning curve than we had anticipated. And really want to give the team a lot of credit for that. I mean a lot of hard work out in the field executing these programs and being willing to lean forward and try to do things a different way to get better results. So we essentially drove our stages per day up by 2 times from what we had done in the past. And that really accelerated the early production that we saw from this project so far.
Ryan Todd - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Great. Thanks. That's very helpful. And then maybe a quick follow up. We appreciate the incremental clarity on takeaway capacity and pricing out of the Permian Basin. I mean can you – it looks like you're quite well situated until, as we look from now into through the bulk of 2019. Can you talk about how you see – how you balance the need for the potential to sign up for incremental FT out of the Permian beyond that, versus maintaining longer term flexibility?
David A. Hager - Devon Energy Corp.:
Yeah. And I'm going to ask – we have several people here we're going to let talk, because they're the real experts on this. And so, Ryan, I'm going to ask Kevin Lafferty, who heads up our midstream and marketing business here, to give you a little more granular answer on that.
Kevin D. Lafferty - Devon Energy Corp.:
Thanks, Dave, and good morning, Ryan. Yeah, as we noted in the ops report on slide 13, we have put ourselves in a really good position. And this is a strategy we have in place with all of our key products across all of our plays both in the U.S. and Canada. So we use a combination of both physical or firm transport and financial hedging to really mitigate risk of both flow assurance and making sure that we can have dollars go to the bottom line. So as we've noted on slide 13, especially for the Permian and starting with oil, so we transport on Longhorn. And that gets a certain amount of barrels out of the basin and over to the Magellan East Houston marker, where the pricing, as Dave noted in his comments, is stronger. And we're actually building out our MEH hedge book as well, just to lock that in and have certainty of cash flow there. And then the rest of the sales, we have a little bit to go in the local refineries. And the key here, and it's an intangible for us, but our marketing group both in the U.S. and in Calgary do a really good job of building relationships with key people. So we are selling our products, not just oil but gas as well, to other people that have firm transportation to make sure that our product is going to get to market. And then of course we highlighted that we have financially hedged both in 2018 and 2019 at just under $1 and then $0.50 a barrel. What we see though is that you have a whole another wave of pipes that are going to come online in 2019, probably starting first with the Cactus line in mid-2019, and several other projects have been announced. So this strategy solidly gets us through this period of tightness, where again as Dave commented, the differentials have blown out pretty substantially. And then we will continue on this strategy, shipping, downstream, and/or financial hedging as we go forward.
Ryan Todd - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Charles Meade with Johnson Rice. Your line is open.
Charles A. Meade - Johnson Rice & Co. LLC:
Yes. Good morning, Dave, to you and the rest of your team there. I would like to ask, I know you guys touched on the Boundary Raider wells, those really remarkable wells in the Delaware Basin. But can you talk a little bit about what led you to target this area? And perhaps elaborate a bit on how those results came in versus your pre-drill? And what if anything has changed on your view in that zone or that area or in any respect?
David A. Hager - Devon Energy Corp.:
Sure, Charles. And I'm going to ask – again we have several people in here. We're going to ask Rick Gideon, who is our Senior Vice President in charge of the Delaware Basin and Rockies, to comment further. But I just want to make one thing really clear before he goes into his comment. You didn't ask this, but I'm going to make it really clear. This is not due to us opening the chokes up really wild to get a huge 24-hour IP. This is truly an exceptional area, where we're seeing not only great wells with strong pressures, but also you can anticipate the EURs on these area – wells in this area to be two to three times what our normal type curve is out there. So this is truly an outstanding area that we have discovered. So, Rick, you want to talk a little bit more about it?
Richard A. Gideon - Devon Energy Corp.:
Absolutely. Thank you, Dave. And great question, Charles. I was hoping somebody would ask about these wells. How did we find them? Well, I'll tell you. I think we have the best technical teams in the industry working these basins. And these teams are focused on identifying the best parts of these basins or the sweet spots. So when we went into this, this was an identified sweet spot. We were aware these wells would be much better than typical wells. I think they surprised us a bit that they were even better than what we thought. As Dave indicated from a choke management, we did nothing different than we typically do on any of our wells from a choke management standpoint. None of these wells were opened to full open chokes. They were managed in order to maintain the value of the reservoir. And as we've identified this, as we said in the operations report, we have additional wells we'll be drilling in this area over the next 1.5 years.
Charles A. Meade - Johnson Rice & Co. LLC:
And I guess, Rick, has it changed your view on other sweet spots you've identified in the Second Bone Springs, or is it – are there things you're going to be doing differently going forward, having seen what these wells actually delivered?
Richard A. Gideon - Devon Energy Corp.:
I think it's confirmed our view. I don't know that this changed our view. We knew what we were looking for. The teams did a great job again in identifying the different metrics to make these better wells. On top of that it was the outstanding execution of these wells and the ability to flow these back into a large battery and test them. So I don't know that it changed it, but it did affirm our views. And I think we'll continue to identify these throughout all of our basins.
David A. Hager - Devon Energy Corp.:
And, Charles, maybe to help out, give a little context of I think where you may be going with this too. First, there is obviously a great area. We are going to have to build out the infrastructure more in the area. And we're going to be building that out commensurate with drilling the wells. We think we have about 25 wells in this area. We can't say they're all going to be this good, but we think they're all going to be well above our type curve. And we feel really good that we've identified a sweet spot here. The production impact of this is going to be more a – and the biggest part is going to be more of a late 2018 on into 2019 and beyond type impact, just given the timing of the drilling of these wells and actually bringing them online. So it obviously has impacted a little bit here our results already by that and other wells allowing us to raise our production guidance. And frankly, we see some upside to our production guide, U.S. oil production guidance as we continue to execute throughout the year. But the bulk of the benefit will be late 2018, 2019, and beyond as we bring these wells on. So, Tony, you had one more comment on that?
Tony D. Vaughn - Devon Energy Corp.:
Yeah, Charles, it's hard for me to keep quiet on this. We've talked to you quite a bit over the last couple years. But really made this data driven approach, a big shift in our mentality about three – probably three, four years ago. It's really coming to fruition right now. And so as Rick mentioned, these weren't random events. These were well planned. And we're seeing this across all the areas that we work, not just in the Boundary Raider localized area, not just in the Coyote area. But you're starting to see what we've always claimed and since late 2015 and beyond. We've always been number one in IP90s, which we feel like is the best time to approach and estimate the ultimate recovery and value of a well. So we're starting to see an expansion of our results going forward. And so we couldn't be prouder from a leadership perspective of the technical work that our teams are really doing. We think this is really culminating some good across the board type work.
Charles A. Meade - Johnson Rice & Co. LLC:
Well, Tony, Dave, and Rick, thanks for all that added commentary. It's helpful.
David A. Hager - Devon Energy Corp.:
Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Subash Chandra with Guggenheim. Your line is open.
Subash Chandra - Guggenheim Securities LLC:
Yeah. Hi, just maybe a dumb question. But in the presentation, page 8, I just want to clarify something where you say, actively pursuing larger asset transactions. Is that a distinct bullet point from the bullet below it, about the $1 billion that's out there for sale? Or is there – or is it a just intro to that bullet? So just trying to understand if there's other asset sales that are in the initial stages that are not described on that page. And secondly, if it disqualifies acquisitions.
David A. Hager - Devon Energy Corp.:
Well, it is a distinct bullet. So that we are – and let me try to frame the whole question up. So when we say we anticipate more than $5 billion of potential asset sale proceeds, we have executed already on the first $1 billion of that. And that culminated in the Johnson County sale in the Barnett. The second $1 billion are what we are marketing this year. And that is high multiple properties, such as the acreage that we have on the Texas Delaware side. It's not part of our long term development plan within the Delaware, but we think has a significant value. You don't have a lot of production there. We think it has significant value in the marketplace, so obviously that's a very high multiple property, since it's primarily undrilled acreage. So that and some other asset sales are the second $1 billion. And we're going to plan to execute that largely here in 2018. Beyond that, we are looking at some strategic transactions of larger magnitude and actively working some of those as we speak. We are purposely being nonspecific on what those are, because we are saying that the primary growth engines of the company in the future are the Delaware Basin, the STACK, and the Rockies. We are looking at other areas where frankly we see undeveloped opportunities that we may not be maximizing the value of within our own portfolio, because of the extreme high quality that we have of development opportunities. But yet, they're other opportunities that other companies, may be worth more in their portfolio than are worth in our portfolio. So we are currently in discussions on some of these larger transactions. Now the reason we aren't being more specific is because in several of these situations there's a limited buyer universe frankly. And so we want to make sure that we maintain the power and that we have – and we have optionality around which of these we may actually execute on, to maximize the value that we receive for the shareholders. So we have some ideas around it. We're going to be – I'm going to continue to be non-specific on that though, so that we can maximize that transaction value. And we do have options obviously. We don't have to go one way or another. We have options on which way we may go. But we are actively pursuing other opportunities of a more strategic nature to reach that $5 billion number in total.
Subash Chandra - Guggenheim Securities LLC:
Okay. Thank you. My follow-up is, any more color you can provide on the proprietary completion techniques you've identified before in STACK? And maybe an update on whether it was applied in some of these wells this quarter? And whether it's being applied in the Delaware?
Richard A. Gideon - Devon Energy Corp.:
This is Rick Gideon. Absolutely, we continue in both areas to progress the tight spacing of clusters, the number of clusters, the rates, the sand volumes, the sweeps, multi, multi variables. Again, our technical teams currently model these. We watch the production and flow back and continue to optimize these. So very similar in STACK and Delaware, the different techniques we're using, you're seeing it in the results of all of our wells. That, tied along with the real-time monitoring of our completions and the real-time monitoring of our flow back, is providing the better wells that you're seeing.
Subash Chandra - Guggenheim Securities LLC:
Yeah. Rick, I'm curious if it's still a discrete application? Or if we should assume that's sort of being applied across the program?
Richard A. Gideon - Devon Energy Corp.:
It's being applied similarly across the program. I never want you to think that every completion we pump in every horizon across every basin is the same. Everyone has a discrete part to it, but they're all very – way that we're executing.
David A. Hager - Devon Energy Corp.:
I think the key thing is that we are communicating constantly across all of our business units. So there, we have completions experts that look across the entire company. And so they may apply different techniques in different areas, but it's out of knowledge of what is the best technique for each of those areas. It's not due to lack of communication. And the other thing is I've heard described, and this is my explanation of it. That sometimes you hear people talk about frac 1.0 or frac 2.0 or things like that. To my mind the best way we do it internally is almost like frac continuous, because we are constantly updating our actual techniques based on the real time information that we're receiving on all of our completions. And so it is – we have a continuous improvement program that is truly real time, even on individual wells. And so it's hard to describe it as a discrete one change that we've made, and we're going to go with that change across the entire program, because that's not the way we work. The way we work is through our 24/7/365 drilling and well control room and flowback room that we are constantly updating how we're doing it. So...
Subash Chandra - Guggenheim Securities LLC:
Yeah. Well, great update, guys. Thanks.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Matt Portillo with TPH. Your line is open.
Matthew Merrel Portillo - Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, Inc.:
Good morning, guys.
David A. Hager - Devon Energy Corp.:
Morning, Matt.
Matthew Merrel Portillo - Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, Inc.:
From a gas perspective you've been able to secure a strong level of flow assurance by transporting volumes to the West Coast in 2018. As your and industry volumes accelerate regionally, and as capacity west-bound likely toughs out, how does Devon view its medium term strategy around gas marketing and the potential need for FT to clear the basin?
Kevin D. Lafferty - Devon Energy Corp.:
Hi, Matt. This is Kevin Lafferty again. First of all, let me walk through, all the way through the value chain just to try and be clear about this. On the upstream side – and when I say that, I'm referring to getting the gas from our wellhead and site to the gas processing plant. We think that there is an ample amount and a strong amount of new build gas processing that's happening both in New Mexico but largely even on the Texas side, which really gives us plenty of access to gas processing. So we don't see any constraints there at all. When it gets to the residue side, Dave's comments, really the way that we market our gas and the benefit we have being in New Mexico, is that we can tie-in relatively easy to very large pipes. This would be El Paso and Transwestern and Northern Natural and others that tend to go west and move a lot of volume out west. And so any limitations that we would have are really mitigated just because of location and geography. So we have contemplated whether or not we need to look at firm, and different projects are being built. We're pleased to see the Kinder Morgan project, Gulf Coast Express, move forward and have shipper commitments. And there are a lot of other projects that are going to follow that to get gas out of the basin. So right now we feel like we can sell into other people that have firm capacity. But we look at taking firm on gas the same way we do on oil. And we're always considering those projects and what it means for us.
Matthew Merrel Portillo - Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, Inc.:
Great. And my second question is a follow-up to some of the color you provided on cost savings. We've seen pretty material savings announced on Anaconda and Steamboat from an efficiency perspective. I was wondering how much that's factored into your 2018 capital program. And as you continue to progress your learnings, how is this kind of factored into your long term views around your free cash flow guidance?
Kevin D. Lafferty - Devon Energy Corp.:
Matt, this is Kevin again. I'm first going to start and then hand off either to Tony or Dave here. But let me first talk about our procurement and supply chain strategy. So this is – and we've talked a lot about our decoupling efforts. This has been a differentiator for us. We still see going from Q4 of 2017 to Q4 of 2018, while the industry is inflating at double digit type of numbers, especially in the Permian, because of all the increased activity headed to the Permian, we have largely taken control of our own destiny. And we still see a low single digit type of inflationary number, because of our approach and the debundling and how we've locked in contracts and secured services. So for us when you combine that with the efficiencies on the drilling in the frac side, we literally see no inflation for the rest of our 2018 program. And as we've stated on pages 13 and 19 in the ops report, we continue to lock in these services and contract out throughout 2019 as well to really place ourselves in a good situation.
David A. Hager - Devon Energy Corp.:
And, Matt, maybe going specifically to your question. Kevin gave you a great description of overall what we're doing. But specifically to your question, I would say largely what Kevin talked about is baked into our capital comments already. So it's really more about the efficiencies that we're getting in the projects with those being executed quicker than anticipated. This just means we have the opportunity to do more activity than we anticipated. And that's where, as I said before, we're looking at a decision point based on returns as to what the right decision is on that.
Matthew Merrel Portillo - Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, Inc.:
Thank you.
Operator:
You next question comes from the line of Doug Leggate with Bank of America. Your line is open.
Doug Leggate - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Thanks. Good morning, everybody. Dave, I wonder if I could go back to the STACK development plan longer term. I guess I must be the only one that's still confused with 12 wells per section in Showboat, but 6 wells per section on your assumed inventory. Clearly there's some upside risk there. How do you think about the development plan going forward as it relates to not leaving any of those sections undeveloped? Because obviously if you're going to pursue a Showboat, Bernhardt, Horsefly type of model going forward, the risked backlog, location backlog presumably has to go materially higher. Can you just frame that for me?
David A. Hager - Devon Energy Corp.:
Yeah. And it's a great question, Doug, as one that our teams wrestle with to come up with. And there's no perfect answer to that question. But I think the thing I would say first is that we are more focused on returns and rate of return of our project than anything else. Now having said that, it is we do look at the overall NPV or NPV per dollar invested in the project. And if we're seeing a degradation of the NPV per dollar invested in a project, then that's when we get to the point where we say, well, our spacing or whatever else we're doing has perhaps reached a limit. And then we shouldn't go any further. Now early on, it's important to remember, we're so early on in the appraisal and the development of the STACK play, where 95% of the wells are still in front of us. So we are testing the limits on some of these. And then we'll optimize more as we move forward. But in general, it's a program that focuses on returns, NPV over I and maximizing from that standpoint, not only on spacing but all the other things, all the other factors that come into it. So there is upside obviously. I mean we're doing 12 wells per section in Showboat. They don't all look like Showboat necessarily. Then there's going to be variability across the program. But obviously there is we think longer term upside to the six wells per section. Wade, do you want to add anything to that?
Wade Hutchings - Devon Energy Corp.:
I think the only thing I would add, Dave, is that it's important I think to understand the recent historic development of the play, in that a lot of the early estimates for the play and even our last set of official guidance around six wells per section, that was done under the context of, in each section there's clearly a best reservoir target. And as we have prosecuted the play and appraised the edges and appraised different landing zones, the upside we saw is that more than one landing zone in most of these sections is productive and economically competitive. And so clearly that likely will increase overall inventory for the play. And so we're obviously purposely testing that in each of these developments this year. When we finish those, we'll be able to kind of put our pencil down and provide revised guidance around what we think our inventory numbers will be and what our actual full field development plan will be in the core of the play.
Doug Leggate - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Guys, I don't want to labor this point. But just to be clear, Wade, you enter a process of updating type curves over the last year or so. I'm guessing that's just a grossly over simplistic way of looking at this full field development. But I just want to be clear. Was that a full field devolvement type curve? Or was that like a single parent test type curve that you had given out previously?
Scott Coody - Devon Energy Corp.:
Well, this is Scott. I'll explain the nature of the type curve. And then maybe Wade could provide some additional context. But the type curve that we put out over a year ago was predicated on largely a parent leasehold drilling with some modest infill spacing assumptions in the upper Meramec zone, which is the top reservoir target in the volatile oil core. That being said, I'll hand it over to Wade, and any context of how you think about it going forward.
Wade Hutchings - Devon Energy Corp.:
Yeah, I think that your comment about a single type curve been overly simplistic is spot on. Because as I've noted, we now have multiple landing zones that we're going to target in each section. Those different landing zones have slightly different reservoir properties. We also are mindful that we've shifted from a parent well, developed – or a parent well approach to now we're doing full field infill development. And I really reference back to Dave's comments around trying to maximize the return and capital efficiency of every dollar we spend. So ultimately, we are likely going to be willing in some places to take a little bit lower EUR per well, as we can drive even lower capital costs per well. And so we're really working to find the sweet spot balance there.
Doug Leggate - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Very, very clear.
David A. Hager - Devon Energy Corp.:
All right. Just say, Doug, don't forget about the capital efficiencies. We are – these are great questions around the type curve. But also the capital efficiencies that we're getting with these developments are really driving the returns higher.
Doug Leggate - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Yeah. I think your partner, Continental [Resources], laid it out pretty well last quarter. I think we know where we're headed with this. Scott, that wasn't question two. My follow-up is really just a very quick strategic question, Dave. I don't want to put you on the spot too much on your strategy, your strategic asset sales and so on. But I wonder if I could just ask you to just opine quickly on your strategic commitment to Canada and the current EnLink ownership structure. And I'll leave it there. Thank you.
David A. Hager - Devon Energy Corp.:
Doug, as you might suspect, that's a great try from you. But I'm not going to get any more specific than I currently described on it. And so we have a lot of options around it. We understand these options really well. But I don't think it's in our best interest to be any more specific.
Doug Leggate - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Awesome. Thanks for taking the question. Thanks, guys. Bye.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Brian Singer with Goldman Sachs. Your line is open.
Brian Singer - Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC:
Thank you. Good morning.
David A. Hager - Devon Energy Corp.:
Morning, Brian.
Brian Singer - Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC:
Going back to that probably debate from a great position with regards to efficiencies and CapEx. Definitely hear you, you don't want to lose the operational efficiencies and synergies. Are there other areas within the capital program that become less core as a result of the efficiencies you're seeing in certain plays? And as you think big picture, when you see efficiencies or for that matter greater cash flow from higher oil prices, is it better to push growth in CapEx higher over the longer term? Or rather maintain growth with less CapEx, leaving more room for free cash flow and share repurchase?
Jeffrey L. Ritenour - Devon Energy Corp.:
Hey, Brian, this is Jeff Ritenour. Yeah, I would say the latter. I mean that certainly is our game plan and approach. We're expecting to generate significant growth in cash flow as we work through the remainder of this year. As Dave talked about, we may trend towards the higher end of our capital program. But we expect to generate significant free cash flow. And right now we have that excess free cash flow earmarked for share repurchase and return to the shareholders.
Brian Singer - Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC:
Great. Thanks. And then I don't believe anyone has asked an Eagle Ford question. It's noticeable that you expect a bump higher in production during second quarter. I think you've commented in the past some of the best rate of return wells are in the Eagle Ford. Is that still the case? And while realizing there's a partner involved in the capital decision process, what do you see as the limitations to yourselves or anyone else running those assets, increasing activity?
Tony D. Vaughn - Devon Energy Corp.:
Brian, we like the Eagle Ford. It does have the highest margin production in the company. It's got probably some of the most prolific returns of anything we do in the company. And it's extremely predictable. So we do like that. I think we've talked in the past that we have a fairly narrow horizon associated with just the lower and the upper Eagle Ford opportunities. We're continuing to prosecute those. And you're seeing some IDs come on here shortly that will boost production over the previous quarter. In addition to that we're getting a lot of maturity about the opportunities associated with the Austin Chalk and also an opportunity that we call redevelopment, where we can go back in and lay some wells and mitigate some of the partial pressure depletion we've had from some of the existing wells. And so all told and on an unrisked basis, we still think there are 500, 600 wells out there that we're still chasing with additional data. The relationship with BHP is very close and very tight. We feel like we're aligned on the technical side. They're going through a process right now. We have a couple of rigs working and some frac crews in the field. And we'll continue really about the pace that we are at right at this point. But we will be pushing and excited to see some data points come in second half this year, early 2019 in the Austin Chalk and the redevelopment concept. And we feel like that's going to open up a new opportunity for us in the project.
Brian Singer - Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC:
Great. Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Jeffrey Campbell with Tuohy Brothers. Your line is open.
Jeffrey Campbell - Tuohy Brothers Investment Research, Inc.:
Good morning.
David A. Hager - Devon Energy Corp.:
Morning.
Jeffrey Campbell - Tuohy Brothers Investment Research, Inc.:
Congratulations on the quarter.
David A. Hager - Devon Energy Corp.:
Thank you.
Jeffrey Campbell - Tuohy Brothers Investment Research, Inc.:
Could you talk about the Second Bone siltstone a little bit. Seems like it's a new play that you brought out this quarter. How is it geologically unique, thickness, typical commodity mix? And in particular is it an additional Second Bone zone? Or is it substituting for some other [Second] Bone zone that maybe drops off elsewhere?
Richard A. Gideon - Devon Energy Corp.:
Yeah, this is Rick Gideon again. It's an additional Second Bone zone. I will tell you, it depends on where you're at in the field on the thickness. It's a siltstone that sits at the top of our – between our First and Second Bone. It depends on where you're at. But we're seeing good permanent porosity in this given area, enough H, as you see. I think we've called out a couple of wells there in our Boomslang area of around 1,700 BOE per day. As we take a look, the size of the prize, it won't span across the entire basin. But it is prolific enough that we will continue to develop in this area.
Jeffrey Campbell - Tuohy Brothers Investment Research, Inc.:
Okay. Great, yeah, that's helpful. And my second question, I was surprised to see the Parkman and the Teapot activity is driving growth in the quarter, plus the attractive low well cost. Because I thought the Rockies program was primarily focused on the Turner, so that may have been my mistake. But I was just wondering, is there an increasing interest in these other zones? Or were these wells sort of one-offs?
Richard A. Gideon - Devon Energy Corp.:
This is Rick Gideon again. Those wells are not one-off. We are continuing to focus on the Turner. While we're in our early appraisal in the Turner in our spacing, we're continuing to execute on our Teapot and Parkman wells, which we've executed historically on. You'll see us continue to bring some of those into the program, as we work up and down those channels and continue to bring on additional Turner wells.
Jeffrey Campbell - Tuohy Brothers Investment Research, Inc.:
But is it safe to say that – because I know that you've talked about longer term you'd like to get to the point where you can get into some sort of manufacturing mode in the Rockies. And that's a little bit troublesome, because it tends to be sweet spots. But is the overarching plan at this point to try to find the largest Turner area that you can develop in a way similar to what you're doing in the STACK and in the Delaware Basin? Then maybe exploit some of these Parkman/Teapots as little sweet spots when they come up? Is that sort of the way to think of it?
Richard A. Gideon - Devon Energy Corp.:
I think you stated that well. I would say we're looking at multiple Turner areas and multiple horizons in the Turner. So we're looking at how we can best develop, and you've seen some of our spacing tests in the upper and the lower Turner. Let's not forget we're still looking at the Niobrara in that area also, which we think could have very large upside. But as we continue to execute through those programs, you will see some additional Parkman and Teapot.
Jeffrey Campbell - Tuohy Brothers Investment Research, Inc.:
Okay, great. That's very clear. I appreciate it.
Scott Coody - Devon Energy Corp.:
And we're now at the top of the hour. We appreciate everyone's interest in Devon today. And if we didn't get to your question, please don't hesitate to reach out to the Investor Relations team at any time, which consists of myself and Chris Carr. Thank you, and we'll talk to you soon.
Operator:
This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.
Executives:
Scott Coody - Devon Energy Corp. David A. Hager - Devon Energy Corp. Tony D. Vaughn - Devon Energy Corp. Jeffrey L. Ritenour - Devon Energy Corp. Wade Hutchings - Devon Energy Corp. Richard A. Gideon - Devon Energy Corp.
Analysts:
Doug Leggate - Bank of America Merrill Lynch Paul Grigel - Macquarie Capital (USA), Inc. Matthew Merrel Portillo - Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, Inc. Robert Alan Brackett - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC Jeffrey L. Campbell - Tuohy Brothers Investment Research, Inc. Charles A. Meade - Johnson Rice & Co. LLC David Martin Heikkinen - Heikkinen Energy Advisors LLC
Operator:
Good morning. Welcome to Devon Energy's Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2017 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. This call is being recorded. I'd now like to turn the call over to Mr. Scott Coody, Vice President of Investor Relations. Sir, you may begin.
Scott Coody - Devon Energy Corp.:
Thank you, and good morning. I hope everyone has had the chance to review our financial and operational disclosures that were released last night. This data package includes our earnings release, forward-looking guidance and detailed operations report. Additionally, for the call today, I want to make sure everyone is aware that we have slides to supplement our prepared remarks. These slides are available on our website, and we will make sure to refer to the slide number during our prepared remarks so that everyone can follow along. With today's call, I will cover a few preliminary items and then turn the call over to our President and CEO, Dave Hager. Dave will provide his thoughts on the strategic direction of Devon, which we have branded as our 2020 Vision and how we expect our business to perform over the next three years. Following Dave, Tony Vaughn, our Chief Operating Officer, will provide detailed commentary on our fourth quarter production results, along with other key operational themes. And then we'll wrap up our prepared remarks with a review of our financial strategy by Jeff Ritenour, our Chief Financial Officer. Turning to slide 2. I would like to remind you that comments and answers to questions on this call today will contain plans, forecasts, expectations and estimates that are forward-looking statements under U.S. securities law. These comments and answers are subject to a number of assumptions, risks and uncertainties, many of which are beyond our control. These statements are not guarantees of future performance and actual results may differ materially. For a review of risk factors related to these statements, please see our Form 10-K. And with that, I will turn the call over to our President and CEO, Dave Hager.
David A. Hager - Devon Energy Corp.:
Thank you, and good morning everyone. As Scott mentioned earlier, Tony will cover fourth quarter results later in the call. My comments today will focus on our outlook for 2018 and the strategic direction of Devon over the next several years, which we have branded as our 2020 Vision. However, before I get into my prepared remarks, I want to address a topic that we have received a lot of questions on, and that is why we have not authorized a share repurchase program. Let me be clear. As we generate more cash through our operations and asset divestiture programs, we will reward our shareholders through higher dividends and opportunistic share buybacks. However, our near-term priority is to use a significant portion of our large cash balance to reduce the debt associated with our upstream business. Why is this our top near-term priority? With our world-class Delaware and STACK positions shifting to full development mode, it is absolutely critical that we possess a top-tier balance sheet in order to maintain consistent activity levels through all cycles. Commodity prices go up and down, but our plan to execute on a steadier and more measured development program through all cycles will optimize returns and value associated with our development programs. And while we certainly could have authorized a couple billion dollar share repurchase program today and had our stock price positively respond to this type of announcement, it is not the correct move for Devon right now. Our business is performing at a very high level, and with the continuation of current commodity prices, coupled with imminent asset sales during 2018, I am confident in stating that there will be increasing shareholder returns this year. Moving to slide 3. With our world-class assets in the Delaware and STACK shifting to full-field development, I can confidently state that Devon has reached an inflection point as a company. With our low-risk development programs focused in our top-tier U.S. resource plays, we expect to deliver a dramatic step change in capital efficiency while delivering attractive corporate-level returns. In 2018, we plan to invest approximately $2.3 billion in our upstream properties with the majority of this capital concentrated on high-return developments in the economic core of the Delaware and STACK. This focused development plan allows us to bring online greater than 25% more wells than in 2017 for a very similar amount of capital investment. Additionally, this program is self-funded at our base planning scenario of $50 WTI pricing. On a retained asset basis, our capital plans in 2018 are expected to drive U.S. oil production growth of roughly 14% compared to 2017. Importantly, the trajectory of Devon's U.S. oil production profile is expected to steadily advance throughout the year and exit 2018 at rates greater than 25% higher than the 2017 average. I do want to be clear on this. We have no shortage of highly attractive growth opportunities within our portfolio and could definitely grow at much higher rates in 2018 if we chose to optimize top line production with our capital allocation. However, we are absolutely committed to doing business differently in the E&P space and we are optimizing our capital allocation to maximize corporate-level returns while delivering capital-efficient cash flow growth. We fundamentally believe that a steadier and more measured investment program through all cycles is the correct strategy to efficiently expand our business and maximize Devon's valuation in the marketplace as opposed to pursuing maximum production growth in any one given year. Turning to slide 4, while Devon's business outlook in 2018 is very strong, I am much more excited about the expanding profitability and improving returns our business is capable of delivering on a multi-year basis. However, before I get into the specific performance targets associated with our three-year plan, I do want to cover the strategic principles that underline or underpin our business model and will guide our behavior over the next several years. First, to maximize and steadily expand the cash flow of our upstream business, we will continue to deploy leading technologies to optimize the productivity of our base production wedge. We also will aggressively work to improve our per-unit cash cost to get the most value we can out of every barrel produced. And while maximizing cash flow is a top priority, we are in a depletion business that requires significant reinvestment. Given this dynamic, continuous improvement and capital efficiency will separate the winners and losers in this highly competitive space. And at Devon, our ability to stretch every investment dollar further is one of our top competitive advantages going forward. With our industry-leading multi-zone development techniques at the Delaware Basin and STACK, we are positioned to deliver not only dramatic improvements in capital efficiency, but also substantially increase the net present value of our acreage through improved recoveries and more efficient operations. With our Delaware Basin and STACK assets rapidly building momentum and operating scale, we are committed to simplifying our asset portfolio by selling less competitive assets. While we'll not go into the details of which assets we are currently evaluating to sell, we will be patient and sell assets only at the right price and as market conditions allow to ensure we bring forward the appropriate value for our shareholders. Another critical objective is to further improve our investment-grade financial strength. Our goal is to achieve a net debt-to-EBITDA ratio of 1.0 to 1.5 times and maintain the ratio in a sustained $50 WTI price environment. As I touched on to begin the call, another very important strategic intent of our 2020 Vision is our commitment to returning increasing amounts of cash to shareholders. Jeff will provide more details on both our debt targets and the return of cash to shareholders later in the call. Moving to slide 5, we expect the strategic principles supporting our 2020 Vision to advance several key performance targets over the next three years. Keep in mind, with these targets we're simply showcasing how we expect our business to perform under a flat $50 WTI and $3 Henry Hub price deck. As we all know, industry conditions will evolve, and when they do, we will recalibrate our actions to optimize returns and capital efficiency. First and foremost, with this disciplined game plan, we expect to deliver fully burdened corporate-level returns in excess of 15%. In conjunction with these attractive corporate returns, we expect capital requirements over the next three years to be funded within operating cash flow at a $50 WTI price point. Under this scenario, our capital programs will drive oil production growth of greater than 25% annually in the Delaware and STACK, advancing our total U.S. oil production by around 15% per year over this time period. In addition to growth in high-value production, another key component of our strategy is to enhance profitability through the aggressive improvement of our cost structure. By 2020, we expect a combination of lower operating costs, declining interest expense and an improved overhead structure to translate into per-unit cash cost savings of approximately 15%. These cost savings, combined with strong oil production growth for the Delaware and STACK, will expand Devon's upstream business cash flow by more than 15% annually through 2020. Put another way, given our advantaged portfolio, we will be able to attractively grow our business on a sustainable basis at a flat price deck of $50 WTI pricing. We will also have tremendous torque to the upside at higher prices as well. At $60 WTI pricing, we would be able to generate $2.5 billion of cumulative free cash flow over the next three years. As we build critical mass in the Delaware and STACK, we also are working to maximize shareholder value by simplifying our asset portfolio. Given our resource-rich asset base, we see the potential to monetize in excess of $5 billion of noncore assets in a very thoughtful and measured fashion over the next few years. Combining these asset sale targets with our free cash flow generation capability at $60 WTI pricing, Devon's total cash inflows in excess of our planned capital requirements over the next three years could range up to 40% of our current market capitalization. As this excess cash flow manifests itself during 2018 and beyond, I emphasize again, we will reward our shareholders through higher dividends and opportunistic share buybacks. Moving to slide 6. Another positive initiative underway at Devon is the steps we are taking to further align our management incentives with that of shareholders. In 2018, Devon will incorporate two return-oriented measures into our compensation packages. As you can see on the slide, one measure will calculate cumulative returns on capital employed, while the other will calculate returns in our current drilling programs. Both return measures will be burdened by all corporate costs, which include G&A, corporate capital, land and all other technology initiatives. Additionally, we are going to advance other shareholder-friendly initiatives in 2018 that would improve the transparency of our business results such as improved environmental sustainability reporting. I will provide updates on these initiatives in future calls. At this point, I will turn the call over to Tony Vaughn for additional commentary on our operations. Tony?
Tony D. Vaughn - Devon Energy Corp.:
Thanks, Dave, and good morning everyone. On slide 7, I'd like to begin my prepared remarks today by providing some additional context around our fourth quarter production results. Our oil production shortfall for the quarter was primarily driven by oil volumes within the U.S. due to the timing of well tie-ins associated with non-operated activity in the STACK. In aggregate, these near-term timing issues limited our U.S. production by nearly 10,000 barrels per day of oil in the quarter. Two thirds of this volume impact was attributable to the timing of non-operated pad developments from multiple partners within STACK. Importantly, this issue in the STACK is now behind us, with the tie-in of more than 50 non-operated wells in early January. The spike in non-operated activity drove our current daily rates in STACK to approximately 130,000 BOEs per day, an increase of greater than 10% compared to the fourth quarter average. To be abundantly clear, the production shortfall in the fourth quarter was not related to reservoir performance or the pace of our operated well activity. In fact, in the fourth quarter, our operated well results were some of the best in Devon's 46-year history. Our top 30 operated wells in the quarter averaged initial 30-day rates of greater than 2,500 BOEs per day. Combined with the ramp-up of volumes in the Delaware Basin in early 2018, the production from our two franchise growth assets is currently approaching the 200,000 BOE per day barrier and is on track with our plan to grow oil production by greater than 35% from those two assets in 2018. Moving to slide 8. As we have talked about length today, the 35% plus growth we expect from our world-class assets in the Delaware Basin and STACK during 2018 is driven by our transition to full-field development. Importantly, the majority of this activity in the upcoming year will leverage our multi-zone development schemes in the economic core of the Delaware and STACK. As you can see on this slide, with this leading-edge development concept, we have more than 10 multi-zone projects scheduled in 2018, with several of these projects already underway. Early results from this leading-edge development concept further support our conviction that this is the innovative approach with the best way to efficiently convert stack pay and cash flow and production. On slide 9, at the Anaconda project in the Delaware Basin, our initial multi-zone development, we achieved capital cost savings of approximately $1 million per well compared to traditional pad developments. These cost savings were driven by the benefits of centralized processing facilities, faster drill times, completion efficiencies that reached up to 14 stages per day at this project. In addition to the $1 million per well cost savings, well productivity at Anaconda was also very strong. Average per well 30-day production rates at the 10-well Anaconda program reached 1,600 BOEs per day. Overall, a great result for our first attempt, but we definitely expect to improve with future projects. In fact, an early example of this continuous improvement is that our second multi-zone project in the Delaware, the 11-well Boomslang project, at Boomslang, rig productivity reached nearly 1,400 feet per day, breaking the previous record drill time achieved in Anaconda by nearly 15%. Completion operations are underway, and we expect to have more positive news to report on Boomslang and several other Delaware projects in the next quarter. Now turning to slide 10, initial results from our multi-zone work in STACK are also very encouraging. At the Showboat project, drilling operations for the 24-well program concluded in January, ahead of schedule, with average rig productivity exceeding 1,000 feet drilled per day. This represents a 30% improvement in drilling efficiency compared to prior leasehold drilling in the area, translating into an average savings of about $500,000 per well. To the west of Showboat, our Coyote development project is also progressing. Drilling operations at Coyote have also shown positive results, with drilling times improving by as much as 25%, over the course of this 7-well project compared to historical single well activity in the area. Completion operations at Coyote are currently ongoing, but our initial well from the Coyote development is now flowing back, achieving 24-hour IP of 8,200 BOEs per day, 8,200 BOEs per day, of which more than 60% of that is oil. This is by far the highest well productivity we have seen to date in the play. So as you can see, our full-field development work in both the Delaware Basin and STACK is off to a great start. On slide 11, a key component of this strong execution that should not be overlooked or underestimated is the operational planning and supply chain efforts underway at Devon that are critical to ensure the certainty of services and supplies to deliver on our capital plans. While the service market is unquestionably tight right now, especially in the Permian Basin, our supply chain team has proactively secured rigs and pressure pumping services at competitive prices to execute on our capital plans in 2018 and 2019. The multi-year development plans we have designed for each asset, along with a disciplined hedging strategy, allowed Devon the opportunity to secure long-term relationships at below-market rates with top providers. On the drilling side of the business, we had the rigs we need under contract to execute on our 2018 program. In fact, we entered the year at around 20 rigs, and due to efficiencies associated with our multi-zone developments, we plan to gradually reduce our rig count to exit the year at about 16 to 17 rigs. While industry will see some increases in day rates and drilling-related services, our contracting strategy and efficiencies in the Delaware Basin and STACK are expected to more than offset this inflation. In aggregate, we will generate cost savings on the drilling side of our business through our improving efficiencies. Another key area of tightness in the marketplace is pressure pumping. Within the Delaware Basin and STACK, we have largely secured our horsepower requirements in 2018, with plans to utilize seven dedicated crews. In addition to the raw horsepower, we have also have contracts in place for the majority of our sand requirements, water, diesel, chemicals and last-mile logistics in 2018. Our strategy of debundling completion services and efficiencies from our multi-zone projects will result in significant cost savings in 2018. So overall, across all phases of our business, we have agreements in place for more than 75% of our total capital requirements during 2018. While we do expect industry service cost inflation to be somewhere in the mid to high single digits in 2018, we believe our efficiency gains in the Delaware and STACK are projected to more than offset these higher costs. Another area that we have done a lot of good work on is with our marketing and flow assurance. We have firm transportation covering a significant tranche of our production in both the Delaware and STACK. And in Canada, we have basis hedges covering around half of our production at $15 off WTI. These attractive hedges are currently worth approximately $300 million. Bottom line, with this good upfront planning work from our operations, marketing and supply chain personnel, we are well positioned in a tight market. And with that, I will turn the call over to Jeff.
Jeffrey L. Ritenour - Devon Energy Corp.:
Thanks, Tony. For my prepared remarks today, I'd like to discuss our financial priorities within the context of our 2020 Vision and highlight the next steps in the execution of our financial strategy. As you can see on slide 12, we have tremendous amount of flexibility when it comes to our financial position. We exited the year with $2.7 billion of cash on hand and expect this balance to meaningfully increase in the very near future once we finalize our Johnson County divestiture in the Barnett. With regards to Devon's capital allocation, our first priority is to fund our operational plans in the Delaware and STACK as these early-stage assets transition to full-field development. Growth in these assets will drive additional operating and capital efficiencies along with higher overall margins for the company. Importantly, we expect to fund both our maintenance and growth capital requirements for the company through 2020 within operating cash flow at a $50 WTI price deck. Another key financial priority is to achieve and maintain peer-leading investment-grade financial strength. To this end, we have set a target leverage ratio of 1 to 1.5 times debt-to-EBITDA. With the addition of our Johnson County divestiture proceeds to our cash balances, we expect to reach the targeted ratio range early in 2018. Given our strong liquidity, we will begin utilizing a portion of cash on hand to tender for outstanding debt. This absolute debt repurchase will reduce our go-forward annual interest expense and help us achieve the targeted 15% cash cost savings Dave mentioned in his opening comments. We will finalize size and timing of our initial debt tender in the coming weeks, but I expect this initiative to reduce our absolute debt by as much as $1.5 billion during 2018. Beyond this initial debt repurchase, we will balance additional debt repurchases against our other financial priorities, but will remain committed to sustain our targeted net debt-to-EBITDA ratio in a $50 WTI price environment. Another critical component of our financial strategy is the return of excess cash flow to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases. From a dividend policy perspective, our goal is to sustainably pay and steadily grow the dividend. We are targeting a manageable payout ratio of 5% to 10% of our operating upstream cash flow at our base planning scenario of $50 WTI pricing. In addition to the quarterly dividend, with excess cash from asset sales or a windfall from higher commodity prices, we expect to reward shareholders through opportunistic share buybacks or potentially a special dividend. We will provide more updates on this topic in the future disclosures as excess cash flow manifest in 2018 and beyond. Shifting briefly to tax reform. The recent changes in U.S. tax law were favorable to Devon and have enhanced our ability to return cash to shareholders in the future. While tax reform did not materially impact our fourth quarter or full year 2017 results, the tax reform will positively impact our ability to repatriate foreign earnings back to the U.S. In the future, the free cash flow generated from our Canadian operations can be transferred tax efficiently to the U.S. to help fund our growing, high-margin asset base. Outside of tax reform, we completed a legal entity restructuring in Canada in 2017 that will significantly reduce our current tax expense going forward. The tax reform and legal entity restructuring resulted in material entries to our deferred taxes, driving some of the noise you see in our effective tax rate for the quarter and year end. And finally, I do want to recognize our accounting team here at Devon and their efforts on the conversion from the full cost accounting methodology to successful efforts. A lot of long hours and hard work went into making this change in accounting policy. We believe successful efforts accounting provides several benefits, including greater transparency into the financial performance and better comparability of results to peers. Going forward, we expect the change to help us highlight the superior capital efficiency of our core assets. We have included a supplemental disclosure packet on our website that highlights the changes on a reported quarterly and annual basis for 2017 as a result of the conversion to successful efforts methodology. With that, I'll turn the call back over to Scott.
Scott Coody - Devon Energy Corp.:
Thanks, Jeff. We'll open the call to Q&A now. Please limit yourself to one question and a follow-up. If you have any further questions, you can reprompt as time permits. With that, operator, we'll take our first question.
Operator:
Our first question comes from the line of Doug Leggate from Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Your line is open.
Doug Leggate - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Thanks. Good morning everybody.
David A. Hager - Devon Energy Corp.:
Good morning, Doug.
Doug Leggate - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Dave, I understand you don't want to be specific on potential asset sales, but I wonder if I could just ask you to opine a little bit on two things, where the Powder River fits in your development outlook. Because either it looks to us like we see we're going to get a core asset or it's been primed for sale, and I'm leaning towards the former. And my second issue I guess, related to the same thing is, what's in the development outlook that you have, particularly in the Delaware, what is the strategic role that EnLink plays going forward? And I'm just curious whether EnLink is part of the $5 billion target potential asset sales over the next several years. And I've got a quick follow-up, please.
David A. Hager - Devon Energy Corp.:
Sure, Doug. Well first off, it's very clear that the two key core assets for Devon going forward are the Delaware and the STACK play. We have positions there that are as good as anybody's, and we are having outstanding results and they are going to drive the growth in the company for the next few years. And they're going to take the bulk of the capital for the next few years. Outside of that, we do still have some great assets in other areas, including the Powder that you mentioned, Barnett, Eagle Ford in heavy oil as well as the EnLink. Specifically in regard to the Powder, we like the opportunities we're drilling there in the Turner. We see some potential there in the Niobrara as well, and we're going to be drilling some wells there. We think there's a good growth opportunity. But again, it's not going to reach the scale of the STACK and the Delaware. So I'm not going to get more specific than just to describe that obviously, the two most important are the STACK and the Delaware. And we understand the pluses and minuses and the optionality we have around all of the other assets in our base, whether it be E&P or a midstream asset. But obviously we have a lot optionality. And the reason – I'm not trying to be coy on this at all – but we're trying to maximize the value that we can get. And market conditions change through time too. And so to announce a strategic decision one way or the other when we have a lot of optionality and market conditions change is really not in the best interest of the shareholders, we don't think. So we have that optionality there. There's a lot of ways we could accomplish this. And reiterate once again that when we do this, you can look for us to be authorizing a way to return value to the shareholders.
Doug Leggate - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
I appreciate the detailed answer. I guess my follow-up is also on EnLink and the buyback, Dave. I mean, I guess you kind of answered the question with a 40% number, at least in terms of the scale of the cumulative cash flow you could generate. But when you look at EnLink specifically, you know I've been rabbiting on about this for a while, that the consolidation discount, the debt metrics, all the things that go along with that and the strategic role in the company, can you just lay out, is there an option where EnLink can some way be deconsolidated while still retaining the necessary strategic control you'd acquire? And is that 40% number in the three-year timeline a reasonable basis that we should be thinking about by share buybacks? And I'll leave it there. Thanks.
Jeffrey L. Ritenour - Devon Energy Corp.:
Hey, Doug. This is Jeff Ritenour. In regards to deconsolidation, from an accounting standpoint in our financials, as long as we maintain control, we're going to end up consolidating the financial results. So don't expect to see any near-term deconsolidation short of a relinquishment of that control, which would really be driven by not only a sell-down of units, but ultimately we'd have to be at a position where we weren't in a control position, whereas today we actually sit on the board as you guys know. So don't see a consolidation in the near term. From an overall investment thesis as it relates to EnLink, as you've heard us say many times, we like the investment. The distributions that we receive on an annual basis amount to about $265 million, $270 million a year. That is a material portion that goes towards funding our E&P capital budget each year. So again, and on top of that, you have the operational synergies in our core areas. So both in the STACK play and obviously in North Texas, the relationship we have with EnLink is important to us from an operational standpoint. In the Delaware, not so much today. EnLink's business is just starting to grow in the Permian, and specifically, with an overlap on our Delaware assets, there isn't significant synergies there today.
Doug Leggate - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Jeff, just to be clear, the control comes from the 2% GP, right? Does that mean the equity interest down to that level could be for sale? And I'll leave it at that. Thank you.
Jeffrey L. Ritenour - Devon Energy Corp.:
You're exactly right. The control does come from our ownership of the GP. And really, it's a little more complicated than that, in that we own 100% of the managing member of that general partner, which deems control over the entity.
Doug Leggate - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Right. Thanks, guys.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Paul Grigel from Macquarie. Your line is open.
Paul Grigel - Macquarie Capital (USA), Inc.:
Hi. Good morning, guys. Just wanted to focus in on the management incentive plan here, really a two-part question. Are there additional changes alongside the addition of return calculation that we should expect? And second, how should we expect to view the transparency element moving forward within those calculations?
David A. Hager - Devon Energy Corp.:
Hi, yeah, be glad to answer that, Paul. First off, yeah, these are going to be incorporated in our balanced scorecard that we use for the pool for our bonuses. You will see us take out a couple of measures that we have in there currently, replace those with these. We're going to be taking out the reserve adds measure and we're going to be taking out a pre-tax cash margin per BOE measure that we had in there historically. We view these as a couple of the most important measures that we'll have in that balanced scorecard. And although we haven't fixed the exact percentages of what these will represent of our balanced scorecard, I can tell you that typically our more important measures each represent 15% to 20% typically. So I would expect this to be 30% to 40% of the total calculation. But I think even as important as the actual math behind this, I can just tell you from a focus standpoint within the company and the conversations that are taking place internally at the company, that this is something that we have always been focused on it, but there's no question that it has intensified dramatically in the last six months. And I think you can see as far as the transparency, we tried to provide some transparency in our operations report as to what we are targeting. We will give you as much of the detailed formula as possible here of how we are going about calculating those measures. We can describe that now. It gets a little complicated, but we'll certainly put that in the proxy so that understand how we're calculating it. We've laid out what the targets are. And then the one measure, the cash return on capital employed is going to be something that you could easily measure straight off the financial statements. And so you can check it yourself. The other measure, which is the all-in asset return measurement, that really goes to the productivity of the wells. And so we're not going to actually provide the details of every decline curve of all of the wells that we drill there, but it'll be tied into our reserve report, which of course is audited every year. And so it's going to be a very comprehensive and very accurate measure that we feel will give as much transparency as anybody in the industry around these numbers. And again that includes all overhead costs associated with – all costs associated with the corporation. So I know a lot of them like to talk about well-level returns of 50% or 100%. We understand that's a fallacy frankly to even be talking about those kinds of things. This is where we are getting and what kind of returns are we generating for the shareholders. That's what we think's the most important and that's what we're going to provide as much transparency as we can.
Paul Grigel - Macquarie Capital (USA), Inc.:
No. That's great. That's terrific. I guess changing one to 2018 guidance as a follow-up, could you guys go through some of the thoughts as you laid out 2018 guidance on either the risking of the non-op guidance moving forward as well as risking on the timing of some of your large pads? You mentioned that they may be actually coming forward, but curious how those were risked within the 2018 guidance as well as the non-op productivity.
David A. Hager - Devon Energy Corp.:
Yeah, I might kick this off and then turn it over to Tony for a little bit more details. But obviously we were disappointed with our miss on Q4 production guidance. And we took the guidance that was provided by the operators on those approximate 50 wells and that's what we plugged into our guidance. If you look at the STACK overall, it's a little bit more significant proportion of the STACK production. In other places I think around 23% or so our production is outside operated. I can tell you that we have taken a much more conservative approach to forecasting non-operated volumes in 2018 versus 2017. I guess you can say we learned our lesson there. We thought we were being appropriate, but in hindsight, some things happened that we didn't know was going to happen with those non-operated wells. Again, the key is though that all of our operated activity is just doing outstanding, but we have taken a more conservative look to the outside-operated wells. And certainly, we've taken a measured approach to our expectations of when our operated large pads are going to come on as well, to make sure that we have confidence in the guidance. So Tony, you want to take it, more detail on that?
Tony D. Vaughn - Devon Energy Corp.:
Yeah, you bet, Dave. Just to add a little bit to what you said, I think if you look at our work on these multi-zone projects, we probably have roughly about 25 to 30 projects in some level of maturity between STACK and Delaware. We're working those plans. We have a very disciplined stage gate process that we have a lot of transparency into what we're doing. You can see in our operating report, we have about 10 or 11 of these projects that are going to be really impacting 2018 highlighted here. And the way we kind of think about this is we're trying to keep the projects of the right size and scale to reap out the benefits of the efficiencies of doing these batch operations and (36:59) and utilizing centralized production facilities on a greater number of wells and pads. But we don't want them so large that we just get extremely lumpy like we might have seen when we were in the offshore business. So we've done a pretty good job of scaling these appropriately. The one large one that you see in 2018 is the project that we're on right now, which is the Showboat project. And in there, we have gotten through the drilling portion of this project and saw some great cost savings there on the drilling side. It's hard for us to explain and convey the synergies and the efficiencies we have when we get when we can park rigs, three or four rigs on a location and just execute, execute and execute. And we're seeing it in spades here on the drilling side of the business. I mentioned in my prepared remarks, we're also starting to see this on the completion side of the business, where we're zipper fracking not just two wells, but three wells together. And our efficiencies on that side of the business are peaking and really, the cost per well on the facility side is going to be competitive and even improving over time as we continue to utilize all these facilities. So we think this is the answer to go. I think we've commented in the past that we think the present value uplift here is 40%. We still believe that. And I think we're very pleased with the early work we've done on these that we've commented on where we are in the maturity of our ability to execute on these. So we're excited about this part of our business.
David A. Hager - Devon Energy Corp.:
Paul, I might just add, too, that when we first rolled up our 2018 oil guidance as a company, our total number was really very, very close to the Street average that we had. What happened really more recently that caused it go a little bit below the Street average is in Canada, where we're going to be experiencing higher royalties because of higher WTI prices. And so we're going to be going from a, as you probably understand, the royalties out there are not based on WCS prices. They're based on WTI prices. And so based on that, we have taken a more conservative assumption on what we think royalties are going to average throughout the year and increase those from I think around 5% to 7% or so. And that's really caused our overall oil production guidance to fall a little bit I think below where the Street expectation was.
Paul Grigel - Macquarie Capital (USA), Inc.:
No, that's all very helpful color, appreciate it.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Matt Portillo from TPH. Your line is open.
Matthew Merrel Portillo - Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, Inc.:
Good morning, Dave and team.
David A. Hager - Devon Energy Corp.:
Good morning, Matt.
Matthew Merrel Portillo - Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, Inc.:
Just a question in your release, you highlight the potential over the next few years to reduce your costs, cash cost by about 15% on the operating level. Could you talk about some of the initiatives you're working on and where those trends might start to show up in terms of the cost savings over the next years?
David A. Hager - Devon Energy Corp.:
Sure, Matt, and that's going to be about $2 per BOE we anticipate reducing from that. Several different things that are going to contribute to that, one of which is obviously we're going to be growing our volumes. And so we do not see our G&A or our LOE really increasing as we grow the volumes, so the per-unit costs are going to be coming down. I can tell you we're taking very hard looks also at both of those areas as to make sure that we are really maximizing the efficiency there. And we have initiatives going on where we see scope to improve in both of those areas on an absolute basis as well. We also anticipate the interest cost coming down. Jeff has talked about the debt paydown, and so that's going to also. So you put all three of those together, we see about a $2 per BOE improvement. I might also mention that we're all anticipating, as our mix changes, and we have more oil as part of our production mix in the future, we also see about $1 per barrel improvement on the revenue side at flat prices. That's just as we move to more oily mix in it. So all told, about a $3 improvement on the per-unit basis.
Matthew Merrel Portillo - Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, Inc.:
Great, thank you. And my follow-up question is just in regards to the asset side of the business. Could you remind us your current acreage exposure in Ward County, south of the state line and just thoughts around capital allocation on that asset over the next years given the focus in the northern Delaware Basin at this point?
Jeffrey L. Ritenour - Devon Energy Corp.:
Just as a rundown of our overall Delaware position, we have about 300,000 surface acres, and about 90% of that's north of the state line area in New Mexico. So directionally, on the Texas side, we have 20,000 to 30,000 acres. Not all of those are in the counties that you referenced, but mostly concentrated in that area.
David A. Hager - Devon Energy Corp.:
And if I can expand on your question a little bit here, we talked a little bit about the $5 billion of asset divestitures. And so the way that we look at that is we, and once we complete the Johnson County divestiture in the Barnett, which we frankly wish that had been done by the time of this call, but we think that is right around the corner from us here. And we're very confident that that's going to get completed here by the end of Q1. But once we do that, from our first phase of divestments, we'll have accomplished $1 billion or more of divestments. We see about $1 billion more of incremental portfolio cleanup that we can do with only minor impact on production. And that could include areas, like you mentioned, Matt, as part of that overall strategy. And we are in the process of putting that plan together and finalizing that plan, and you'll see us executing on that plan in 2018. So that would get us up to about the $2 billion number. And then beyond that, that's when we really get into the more strategic decisions. And again as I've said, it's our primary growth areas are the STACK and the Delaware. And beyond that we'll look at everything else that makes sense on an opportunistic basis.
Matthew Merrel Portillo - Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, Inc.:
Thank you very much.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Bob Brackett from Bernstein Research. Your line is open.
Robert Alan Brackett - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC:
My question about the non-op strategy. It sort of hits you a bit in the STACK, and you have some activity in the Eagle Ford that's non-op. Are you happy with your level of non-op or is that something you'd clean up over time?
Jeffrey L. Ritenour - Devon Energy Corp.:
Bob, I think and generally we're happy. If you just look at the component of non-op to the company, on a total capital basis, that's certainly less than 10% of the company spend, and on a production basis it's about 12% if I remember the numbers right. It happens to be concentrated, a large portion of that OBO volumes happen to be concentrated in the STACK play and that's really the cause of this one miss. And you know our STACK team, we really operate the OBO component much like we do the operated component, so we're very in tune with what our operators are doing. We have technical meetings with those. We try to participate in a lot of activity in STACK just so we have a ample library to help us on the operated side. We probably have the deepest inventory of data of any of the operators in the STACK. So there's some true benefits to us having that component in STACK and that's helping us. The relationship that we've had with BHP is similar to what it's been over the past few years in the Eagle Ford. And there, we're operating a couple of rigs this year. The way the Eagle Ford tends to work is when we have frac crews in the field and working new completions, we see a dramatic boost in rate, and when we don't, you see a pretty steep decline on that. And we're prepared to put a couple of rigs back on the completion side of the business in the Eagle Ford. So we saw a little bit of a decline moving from Q4 to Q1 on the Eagle Ford, but it's going to really bounce back up. So I think we're happy. We got good operators and we learn a lot from those operators.
David A. Hager - Devon Energy Corp.:
Yeah, Bob, I'm going to ask Wade Hutchings, who manages all of our STACK business, to comment a little bit on that. But I think the thing that you're going to hear is we participate in more wells than any other operator in the STACK play. And so when you see the fact that our operated activity, we've not had any hiccups. All of our wells have really performed at a very high level. That's one of the benefits of having some outside, some OBO activity, that we get a huge amount of data from a very large amount of wells that are drilled in the play, and it allows us on our high working interest wells that we operate to really produce outstanding results. So Wade can you expand on that a little bit more detail?
Wade Hutchings - Devon Energy Corp.:
Happy to, Dave. I think the key thing I would note for us is the biggest value for our OBO investments in STACK has really been accelerated learnings. We're generally happy with the results that we see on a financial basis. We actually get to control which wells we elect into and wells that look marginal we'll stand out of. But ultimately we come back to the most critical thing we are trying to determine today in the STACK is the appropriate development scenario. And you see that in 2018, that makes up the bulk of our own operated investments, trying to answer how many reservoir compartments are there in the Meramec and how many wells per reservoir compartment make up an ideal development scenario. We're really accelerating that learning because we're participating in multiple development pilots today with several of the key operators in the STACK. And so again, I'd just reiterate, we get a very large amount of value on accelerating our learnings for how we're going to move into full-field development in the STACK today.
Robert Alan Brackett - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC:
Okay, great. That's clear. Thanks for the details.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Jeffrey Campbell from Tuohy Brothers. Your line is open.
Jeffrey L. Campbell - Tuohy Brothers Investment Research, Inc.:
Good morning.
David A. Hager - Devon Energy Corp.:
Morning.
Jeffrey L. Campbell - Tuohy Brothers Investment Research, Inc.:
Dave, my first question is with regard to the master development plan approach that you're taking with the BLM. Looks like you increased your approvals from 2 to 4 MDPs in the quarter. And if I read it right, there's an aspirational goal of up to 1,600 permits, which sounds like a multiyear inventory. I was just wondering, in particular can you discuss what commitment the BLM is making to Devon when it approves these MDPs and how it's going to shape your development.
David A. Hager - Devon Energy Corp.:
Sure, be glad. And we have also in the room here today Rick Gideon. Rick handles all of our Delaware activities as well as our Rockies activities. And so I'm going to let Rick – he's eminently familiar with all this and I think he'll give you a more thorough answer than I will. So Rick?
Richard A. Gideon - Devon Energy Corp.:
Thank you, Dave. When we take a look at these MDPs, the overall plan is so that we can get permits not just on subsurface, but surface right-of-way, takeaway, battery, et cetera. So what we can do is cover the NEPA, the surface area all at one time. In doing this, it helps the BLM to be able to do more permits in a timely manner. So we work very closely with them, have a very good relationship. Once you have that approved, it then works on to the APD. Upon approval, the commitment from the BLM by statute is 30 days after we get those approved.
Jeffrey L. Campbell - Tuohy Brothers Investment Research, Inc.:
Okay. So then really shouldn't think of this in terms of being like a multiyear thing. It's more maybe like an annual thing that's going to roll from year to year, and then when you get the approvals from BLM, you'll decide which ones you want to move on and which ones not. Is that sort of the way it works?
Richard A. Gideon - Devon Energy Corp.:
Well, we're always prioritizing our asset, so the MDPs you will see are in the prioritized portions of our field, the best parts of the best rock. When we plan, we do plan for these multi horizons. And as we find out more information, you could see some minimal change to the drilling plan on whether a certain horizon is included, how many wells per section. But as we go into the planning for right-of-way, for takeaway, for battery, we plan for success. And so you'll see some changes within each of those MDPs. But we're prioritizing the best parts of our field.
Jeffrey L. Campbell - Tuohy Brothers Investment Research, Inc.:
Okay, well yeah, that's helpful. My other question is using Anaconda as an example, but I mean you could refer to any of your major projects, Boomslang, Seawolf, whatever you like. You developed 10 wells in three landing zones. You said that centralization created all kinds of efficiencies, and it saved $1 million a well. What I'm trying to get a vision of is things like how many more wells and how many zones do you expect to drill in Anaconda in the future and in what size batches? I'm trying to get a sense of how you balance between the multi-zone development advantage that you've talked about while not overcapitalizing the project infrastructure.
David A. Hager - Devon Energy Corp.:
Rick's going to handle that question again, so.
Richard A. Gideon - Devon Energy Corp.:
As we build these batteries, we're planning, and you may hear us utilize a term, drill-to-fill, and I'll utilize this both for the Delaware and the STACK. As we come back, we can reutilize that battery for the rest of the wells in that section. Depending on where it's at, when you take a look at an Anaconda, obviously we can finish the Leonard. We've already developed the Bone Springs in that area. But as we come back to these different independent zones that are not dependent or sharing the same pressure regime of some of these, we can reutilize that battery in the same section or even sections next to that section when we come back and drill. So you'll see even more use of that centralized battery as we move forward.
Jeffrey L. Campbell - Tuohy Brothers Investment Research, Inc.:
Okay. So the point is, the infrastructure is not necessarily just tied to the one project that we hear about, but it might be able to be parasitized in a useful way to (51:44)?
David A. Hager - Devon Energy Corp.:
Yeah, I think that's the way to think about it. If you look at it on a map, these developments that we're doing, there are still a lot of areas immediately around these developments that are not yet developed. And so this infrastructure can be used as we develop those other areas as well.
Jeffrey L. Campbell - Tuohy Brothers Investment Research, Inc.:
Okay, great. That's very helpful. Thank you.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Charles Meade from Johnson Rice. Your line is open.
Charles A. Meade - Johnson Rice & Co. LLC:
Good morning, Dave, to you and your team.
David A. Hager - Devon Energy Corp.:
Morning, Charles.
Charles A. Meade - Johnson Rice & Co. LLC:
I wanted to ask a question, and I apologize if someone else touched on this, but I may have missed it. But I believe Tony talked about this 8,200 barrel a day well at Coyote. And I wonder if you could go back over, talk about some of the specifics of that well. Presumably, it was a long lateral, but if you completed it any differently and how that result fit versus what you were expecting kind of pre-drill or pre-completion.
David A. Hager - Devon Energy Corp.:
No, nobody else talked about it. We could have four or five more questions about it if you want, but no, it's obviously a great well but we're going to have a lot of good wells out here. But, Wade, do you want to talk about it a little bit more?
Wade Hutchings - Devon Energy Corp.:
Sure, happy to. So, Charles, this well that we're referencing is the first well in our Coyote development project that has come online. It is actually very close to another well that we released results on in fourth quarter, the Faith Marie well. That well ended up with a 30-day IP of around 4,700 BOE a day. Again, the 8,200 BOE per day is just a 24-hour IP, but very encouraging results. It's in the kind of northwest part of the Meramec play. The target in that area is in the lower Meramec. And frankly, what we're seeing there is just excellent reservoir properties. And so we look forward to the rest of the Coyote wells coming online, and then you'll see other projects of similar size come online over the next one to two years in that area.
Charles A. Meade - Johnson Rice & Co. LLC:
Got it. Thank you for that detail. Am I getting the right message, that if you view the big driver being excellent reservoir properties in the area, that this is more likely to be representative than an anomaly, at least for this pad?
David A. Hager - Devon Energy Corp.:
Well let me, I'm going to change – answer that and start off an answer and Wade or Tony can chime in a little bit here, too. That this Meramec is a little bit different than some of your unconventional plays, and it has some conventional porosity and permeability. And so you have to think about when it has that, that you may actually be able to increase your EUR and drill less wells to recover a similar amount of hydrocarbons than you originally anticipated. So we're going to find areas out there such as this, where I think our well density is actually going to be a little bit less than we maybe originally anticipated. Extremely highly productive wells, but we're going to have higher EURs also. And so from a capital efficiency standpoint, that's a really good news story. But you have to think about that a little bit differently than you may in some of the shale reservoirs where you probably may not have the opportunity to increase your EUR as much when you see the interference between the wells. So, Wade, you want to expand on that a little bit? Because that's I think a concept that's really important. Because sometimes when we hear people say, okay, we're going to develop this on four wells per section rather than six wells per section, people may look at that as a negative. Well, in some areas it may be. But here, it may actually be a positive because you're going to recover a very similar amount of hydrocarbons, just have to drill less wells.
Wade Hutchings - Devon Energy Corp.:
Yeah, I think I would expand on that by noting the team here at Devon has mapped each one of these reservoir targets across the Meramec all across the play. And they do change their reservoir quality in a geographic sense. And so as we have been appraising the field over the last couple of years, that's what we've been trying to determine, is where are the best reservoir quality in each of these potential landing zones. We still got a little bit more of that work to do. But in the core of the play, we feel like we've done a good enough job to identify which zones have the best reservoir quality. And then the next question is how to most optimally develop each one of those zones. Some of those may take a lower well count per section than others because of the phenomenon that Dave described. We ultimately are seeking to get the most return out of every one of these sections, and ultimately determining the precise number of wells per layer that we want to invest in.
Tony D. Vaughn - Devon Energy Corp.:
Charles, just to add a little bit of a high-level thought process to you. We've been involved in 5,000 Barnett wells. We've been involved in probably 600 or 700 Eagle Ford wells. We've talked to you about the continued optimization in the Woodford after 850 wells. So this is our business. And we try to core up and get a blocked acreage position and try to get as much data and science as we can so we can, as Wade said, optimize on value. And so this is a great storyline that you see an advantage for Devon, is just these large contiguous blocks of acreage we have that are in the heart of these plays.
Charles A. Meade - Johnson Rice & Co. LLC:
Dave, Wade and Tony, that's helpful color from all of you. And I agree that a lot of people's instincts goes the wrong way. You'd rather drill one well and get the EUR from the whole section. But that seems to get lost some time. Last thing, or the one quick follow-up. I don't mean to belabor this point, but the 50 wells outside operated that got delayed, just curious if there's maybe a little more color you can add. Is that just one operator? Because it really seems like a remarkable contrast to your operations in the STACK, and I guess what I guess I'm trying to confirm or disconfirm is the idea that this might be something that's emerging out of a traffic jam in the play or something like that.
Tony D. Vaughn - Devon Energy Corp.:
You know Charles, I would not read this as a systemic issue for the play. This happened to be on five or six large projects in the play from some of the more competent operators in the play and it was varied. It just wasn't one operator. And what you see the different operators doing is, Wade was really describing, is collecting a lot of data so some of these projects probably got slightly deferred because of data acquisition. Some of these projects, the operators work really well here together and do our best not to bash offsetting wells. So when we have completion operations and one of our sections offset, operators will understand that and we'll alter their operations. So there's a little bit of this that we're all working together to try to maximize value. So I wouldn't read this as a systemic issue. I think actually is a pretty positive issue. Just happened in this particular 50-well program is just right at the quarter borderline. If it happened a little bit earlier in the quarter, we wouldn't even be talking about it.
Charles A. Meade - Johnson Rice & Co. LLC:
That's helpful color, Tony, thank you.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of David Heikkinen from Heikkinen Energy Advisors. Your line is open.
David Martin Heikkinen - Heikkinen Energy Advisors LLC:
Good morning guys, and thanks for taking my question. Just looking at and talking about the $3 a barrel cash margin expansion. Wanted to check something that your guidance doesn't include things like the Barnett asset sale, and that could be, asset sales could be an additional cash margin expansion beyond what you already detailed.
David A. Hager - Devon Energy Corp.:
Absolutely.
Jeffrey L. Ritenour - Devon Energy Corp.:
Yeah, we have not modeled in any divestitures into the forecast that we laid out.
David Martin Heikkinen - Heikkinen Energy Advisors LLC:
Perfect. And you did say you could buy back up to 40% of your market cap?
Jeffrey L. Ritenour - Devon Energy Corp.:
No. I think in Dave's commentary, what we were suggesting was the cumulative cash flow that we could develop over that three-year period, married with proceeds from the divestitures would equate to essentially 40% of our market cap.
David Martin Heikkinen - Heikkinen Energy Advisors LLC:
Okay, cool. Thanks guys.
Operator:
I'll now turn the conference back over to our presenters.
Scott Coody - Devon Energy Corp.:
All right. We're now at the top of the hour. We appreciate everyone's interest in Devon today, and I think we've got to most people's questions, but do not hesitate to reach out to us at any time today, myself or Chris Carr. Once again, appreciate your time and we'll talk to you soon.
Operator:
This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.
Executives:
Scott Coody - Vice President of Investor Relations David Hager - Chief Executive Officer Tony Vaughn - Chief Operating Officer Jeff Ritenour - Chief Financial Officer
Analysts:
Evan Calio - Morgan Stanley Bob Morris - Citi Ryan Todd - Deutsche Bank Doug Leggate - Bank of America Scott Hanold - RBC Capital Markets Arun Jayaram - JPMorgan David Heikkinen - Heikkinen Energy Jeffrey Campbell - Tuohy Brothers Biju Perincheril - Susquehanna
Operator:
Good morning and welcome to the Devon Energy’s Third Quarter Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. This call is being recorded. I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Scott Coody, Vice President of Investor Relations. Sir, you may begin.
Scott Coody:
Thank you, and good morning. I hope everyone has had the chance to review our third quarter financial and operational disclosures that were released last night. This data package includes our earnings release, forward-looking guidance and detailed operations report. With today's call, we are going to slightly modify the format of our prepared remarks. As always, I will cover a few preliminary items. Then our President and CEO, Dave Hager, will provide his thoughts on the strategic direction of Devon. Following Dave, Tony Vaughn, our Chief Operating Officer, is going to cover the key operational highlights for the quarter. And then we will wrap up our prepared remarks with a brief review by Jeff Ritenour, our Chief Financial Officer. Overall, this commentary should last around 15 minutes and then we will open the call to Q&A. Before moving on, I would like to remind you that comments and answers to questions on the call today will contain plans, forecasts, expectations and estimates that are forward-looking statements under U.S. Securities Law. These comments and answers are subject to a number of assumptions, risks and uncertainties, many of which are beyond our control. These statements are not guarantees of future performance and actual results may differ materially. For a review of risk factors related to these statements, please see our Form 10-K. And with that, I will turn the call over to our President and CEO, Dave Hager.
David Hager:
Thank you, and good morning, everyone. As Scott mentioned, we are making some minor modifications to the format of the call today to provide Tony and Jeff the opportunity to convey key messages and technical insights about their respective areas of business. My comments today will focus on the strategic direction of Devon over the next several years, which we have recently branded as our 2020 vision. The intuitive strategic plan is to accelerate value creation from our advantaged asset base by continuing to deliver industry-leading drill bit results while improving our financial strength. With the 2020 vision, our top objective is to deliver attractive peer-leading returns on invested capital for our shareholders. While the disciplined pursuit of returns is not new at Devon, our 2020 vision will further refine our focus on maximizing full cycle returns at the corporate level. In fact, at our November board meeting, we will discuss incorporating return-oriented measures into our compensation metrics for the upcoming 2018 budgeting cycle. Our refinement and capital allocation will result in more measured and consistent investment through all cycles, positioning us to more efficiently expand our business over time while optimizing returns. This balanced operating model is in contrast to the industry's historical behavior of aggressively chasing topline growth at the ultimate expense of shareholders. This is not a populist philosophy that we are paying lift service too. We are absolutely committed to doing business differently in the E&P space, and we are taking the appropriate steps to become an industry leader with our disciplined approach to capital allocation. In short, we can lead and we will lead. While having the right capital allocations critical to achieving our 2020 vision, it is equally important to possess the right asset portfolio and get the most of these assets with superior execution. And at Devon, we are truly advantaged with our world-class acreage positions and the STACK and the Delaware basin. The quality and of these two franchised assets are unmatched in the industry with exposure to more than 30,000 potential drilling locations, concentrated in the economic core of these plays. Not only of the STACK and Delaware basin assets two are the very best positioned plays on the North American cost curve, but Devon’s large, contiguous stacked pay acreage position in these basins provide us a multi-decade growth opportunity. And with this long runway of highly economic opportunities, we are executing at a very high level. Over the past few years, Devon has the top well productivity of any U.S. operator, which is quite an accomplishment in this competitive space. And importantly, with these terrific wells, we are significantly enhancing returns by embracing leading technologies to improve drilling times, optimize completion designs and to increase our base production. As we continue to advance our development programs and build additional operating scale in the STACK and Delaware basin, the next phase of our 2020 vision is to further high grade our resource-rich portfolio. Given the massive opportunity we have in the STACK and Delaware plays, we see the potential to monetize several billion dollars of less competitive assets within our portfolio in a very thoughtful and measured fashion over the next few years. Potential proceeds from these portfolio rationalization efforts would be balanced between further debt reduction, reinvesting in the core business and returning cash to our shareholders. We expect to emerge with a highly focused asset portfolio and enhance profitability as we transition to a much higher-margin barrel. With our 2020 vision, we also plan to have a fortress balance sheet with a net debt to EBITDA target of 1.0 to 1.5 times by the end of the decade. Overall, these winning characteristic will allow Devon to deliver consistent, competitive and major growth rates along with top tier returns on capital employed. And lastly, I'll finish my remarks with a few preliminary thoughts on our outlook for 2018. First and foremost, our capital program in the upcoming year is being designed to optimize returns, not production growth. And while we do expect robust growth form our STACK and Delaware assets, this higher return in production growth was simply be an output of our outstanding asset base and strong execution. While we are still working through the details of our budget, we are directionally planning on an upstream budget somewhere in the range of $2 billion to $2.5 billion in 2018. To be absolutely clear, we expect to deliver this capital spend within operating cash flow at $50 TWI and $3 Henry Hub. With current strip pricing above this base planning scenario, we have no plans to modify our capital range and we would expect to generate free cash flow. And I cannot emphasize this enough. This disciplined plan will represent a major inflection point for Devon due to a step change and improved capital efficiency as we shift our full field development in the STACK and Delaware basin and we leverage technology to lower our cost structure. With this highly efficient capital program, we expect to bring online more than 25% more development wells in 2018 as compared to the 2017 program. This means both more wells online and a focus on our highest return place. This high returning capital program is expected to increase oil production in the STACK and Delaware Basin by more than 30% in 2018. We will provide more detailed production guidance on other components of our production mix in the coming months, once we have better insight inside in the planned activity levels for our non-operated Eagle Ford asset. And with that, I will turn the call over to Tony Vaughn for additional commentary on our operations.
Tony Vaughn:
Thanks, Dave, and good morning, everyone. My remarks for today will be focused on a few key operating things that are integral to the success of Devon's 2020 vision. First, the prolific wells we are bringing online lead the industry in well productivity and reflect quality of our underlying asset base our STACK’s operating capabilities and our willingness to deploy cutting-edge technologies across our asset base. In the third quarter, the well productivity from our U.S. resources plays was nothing short of outstanding. We commenced production on 50 new wells that achieved 30-day rates of greater than 2,100 BOEs per day. Importantly, we delivered these high-return wells with the capital investment that was below the low end of our guidance range for the third consecutive quarter. The second key message I want to leave you with today is our capital efficiency will dramatically improve as we transition to fulfill development as we further leverage the technology to maximize performance. With the size and the scale of our STACK and Delaware positions, our top priority is to efficiently comfort the resource associated with these world-class assets into production and cash flow. To maximize the value of these stacked-pay reservoirs, our capital activity is shifting towards low-risk, multi-zone developments to increase capital efficiencies and recoveries on a per-section basis. Early results from this thoughtful leading-edge development concept were quite positive. At the end of Corner project in the Delaware Basin, which is Devon's first multi-zone development, drilling time has improved 55% compared to historic results in this area. We also attained significant efficiencies due to less smoke times, more repetitive operations, improved productivity from zipper fracs and we achieved supply chain savings by debundling our completion work. Overall, these improvements resulted in capital savings of approximately $1 million per well compared to traditional pad developments. Also of note, we were able to compress the spud to first production cycle time at Anaconda to only 5.8 months. We will continue to leverage this advantage development scheme with a majority of our capital activity going forward. In fact, we will have several multi-zone projects under development across STACK and Delaware by year end and I fully expect to report more positive results in n this topic next quarter. And finally, I'm excited about our supply chain efforts underway that will help ensure the certainty of execution with our future multi-zone projects. And as we have discussed at length today, Devon has uniquely positioned to maintain and build operating momentum for the foreseeable future with our STACK and Delaware basin assets. To profitably execute on this massive opportunity, we have integrated teams across Devon proactively securing equipment, crews, materials and takeaway capacity at competitive prices and flexible terms to ensure the resources and capabilities to execute on our capital plans. A recent example of this integrated planning effort was our ability to lock in essentially all sand requirements for our capital programs through 2018 at rates significantly below market. This accomplishment was achieved in a tight market and the advantage rates were secured by sourcing all fine sand requirements from regional sand mines in the southern U.S. Due to substantially lower transportation cost, we expect total delivered cost from our regional stored sand to be around 30% less and the equivalent grades in northern white sand without any degradation in performance. To provide additional flexibility with our operations, we have also secured appropriate amounts of local trans load capacity in both stack and Delaware to further improved final amount of logistics. These are just a few of the many initiatives underway across Devon that will help enhance returns on the capital investment and the uncertainty of our ability to execute on these development projects. So to summarize, we are building a very progressive culture that emphasizes data-driven decision making and innovation across multi-disciplined teams. This effort is consistently delivering best-in-class drill bet results, improvements in capital efficiency as we shift to multi-zone developments and we have planning efforts underway to ensure certainty of execution with our future activity. And now, I will turn the call over to Jeff for our financial overview.
Jeff Ritenour:
Thanks, Tony. I would like to spend a few minutes today discussing Devon's financial strategy within the context of our 2020 vision and build upon the points made by Dave in his opening comments. A great place to start is with a review of our current financial position. Our upstream currently at $6.9 billion of outstanding debt with no significant maturities prior to 2021. Devon also has excellent liquidity with $2.8 billion of cash on hand and an undrawn credit facility of $3 billion. In the coming months, we expect our financial strengths to be further enhance with the completion of our ongoing divestiture program. This solid financial position provides a significant optionality as we move forward in pursuit of Devon's 2020 Vision. Our top near-term objective is to fund our operational plants in the STACK and Delaware basin as these early-stage assets transition to fulfill development. Growth in these assets will drive additional operating and capital cost efficiencies along with higher overall margins for the company. This disciplined capital program will be funded directionally with an operating cash flow. In conjunction with funding our capital programs, we are also intent on reducing outstanding debt. As Dave mentioned earlier, a critical component at Devon's 2020 Vision is the commitment to further improve our investment-grade financial strength. By the end of the decade, we expect to improve Devon's leverage metrics from 1.0 to 1.5 times net debt to EBITDA as compared to our current level of just below two times. To be clear, we expect to achieve this goal with a reduction of absolute debt. We are not planning on higher commodity prices to deleverage our business. Given our strong liquidity, the first step in our debt reduction plan will be to utilize a portion of cash on hand to tender for outstanding debt. We will finalize size and timing of our tender after we complete our 2018 capital budgeting process, but we expect to further reduce debt by at least $1 billion over the next year. Looking beyond 2018, the second phase of our debt reduction plan is tied to the progression of our STACK and Delaware development programs. As these world-class assets build scale and become self-sufficient, we expect to take additional steps to high grade our resource-rich portfolio with the monetization of less competitive assets. Use of proceeds will include additional debt reduction, reinvestment in the core business and the return of cash to our shareholders. So, in summary, achievement of Devon's 2020 Vision positions the company with a top tier balance sheet in the E&P space, facilitating consistent investment in our assets and optimal returns through all cycles. With that, I'll turn the call back over to Scott.
Scott Coody:
Thanks, Jeff. We will now open the call to Q&A. [Operator Instructions] With that, operator, we'll take our first question.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] First question comes from Evan Calio from Morgan Stanley. Evan, your line is open.
Evan Calio:
My first question, Dave. I know in your opening comments you talked about prioritizing improving the balance sheet near term to ensure execution under a range of commodity prices and have an active asset program. How do you think about the potential return for cash to shareholders longer term on the back end of your Vision 2020 strategy? I am presuming capital efficiency will be higher in '18 with all bases in development mode and you'll have proceeds of several years’ worth of non-core asset sales on the book. So can you give us kind of color on that the distribution strategy and that maybe longer or medium term period?
David Hager:
Evan, yes, that's absolutely something we are considering in a medium and longer term. Our short-term priority is to continue to build scale in the STACK and the Delaware basin and we have really optimized our capital program in 2018 to deliver what we consider the sweet spot of capital spend to deliver with the highest return as we focus our activities one on development activities with increased efficiencies with having higher -- significantly higher number of starts and completions, as I said in opening remarks, 25% or more than we had in 2017 as well as focusing those and the highest return areas in our portfolio. As we build that scale, as we execute on the 2020 Vision with further several billion dollars of divestments, we do see that we will be paying down some debt to build a fortress balance sheet to allow us to certainly withstand any sort of weaker commodity price environment in any reasonable price range. Beyond that, we do see in the medium and long term that we will be in a free cash flow generation plus potentially have proceed from the asset divestitures as those take place and we will be looking returning value to the shareholders in one way or the other.
Evan Calio:
Great. I appreciate that. And second, I know you've introduced the preliminary CapEx guidance range to $2 billion to $2.5 billion is lower than expectations but soon to be looked appeared assume a 4Q run rate or annualized run rate. On the other half of the picture, I believe you mentioned that a 25% more wells on a similar drilling dollar assumption, I mean can you give us kind of a base line of what that's assuming in 2017? I know there were some backlogs…
David Hager:
That could somewhere around 240 or so, approximately, wells drilled and completed in 2017. And put simply, Evan, it would be inaccurate to take our Q4 capital run rate and extrapolate that forward to all of 2018. We have a handful of rigs that are working in Q4 in the Rocky -- one in the Rocky, one in the Barnett and a few others tests - few of one-off exploration ideas that will not be active in 2018. And so we will have a higher capital spend rate in Q4 2017 than we will average for each quarter in 2018. And then our efficiency is really just what Tony went through in many ways that we're getting into development drilling, we are realizing efficiencies from that and we are concentrating more of our total E&P capital spend on development drilling. So were getting more efficient, we’re putting more dollars into the development drilling and we're drilling the best return wells. So if you put all three of those factors together, that's why we feel really good about the program not just in 2018 but well beyond 2018. We’re getting in development mode, quite simply and that can continue for a long time.
Evan Calio:
That’s great. I think a follow-up to that, to your comments. What percentage of the '18 wells would be drilled on multi-well pads versus 2017? I think I missed that.
Tony Vaughn:
Evan, it is something about two-thirds of our program in '18 will be on these multi-zone projects. And I think a good readout on what Dave was talking about is really to go back and dissect the results that we had on really a serial number one, which was our Anaconda project in the Delaware Basin, and there we were able to reduce cost some 20% on a per-well basis just through the efficiency gains from these multi-zone concept.
Operator:
The next question comes from the line of Bob Morris from Citi. Bob, your line is open.
Bob Morris:
I mean, you mentioned focusing on the STACK and the Delaware but perhaps the best returns on a limited programs that they have been in the pad of River Basin and the Rockies. How does that fit into your program next year? And do you have the scale there or the runway to be able to accelerate that or it would be more there or how do you think about that within your portfolio?
David Heikkinen:
Well, you are right, Bob. We've drilled some really nice wells that’s still early on in the Powder River Basin, but that certainly provides additional strength and optionality to the overall portfolio. I'll let Tony detail out the potential 2018 plans, but we're proud of what we've done so far and we have a lot of acreage that we have yet to evaluate there. It looks like we focused primarily in a shorter term on the turner as we described in the operations reports. But Tony want to detail it out a little further.
Tony Vaughn:
Well, just to add on what Dave said, Bob, we are doing some really outstanding work. You are seeing the returns on that. We have historically been focused on some of the shallow conventional horizons from the Teapot and Parkman and those offer some of the best returns we have seen, essentially 95% overall stream. Now we are bringing on some of our turner wells. We think this is a more unconventional type play in the basin, perhaps a little bit more ubiquitous across our position. We have got a substantial permit there. In fact, we picked up about 100-plus permits from the Casper BLM office, which is quite unusual in terms of the pace of permits being approved. So we have got the capacity to stand up additional rigs and repeat high-quality results. It's going to be a matter of going through the budgeting process this year and allocating capital to the best opportunities we have.
Bob Morris:
And how do you think about your footprint there? Is it somewhere that you think you could expand your footprint of all these tests working the different formations? Or is there enough running room there to really make this a core party out of portfolio?
David Heikkinen:
Bob, we have got 400-plus thousand acres in Powder, so we think we have got the position that we wanted. You just really map out what would classified as Tier 1, it's something less than the 400,000 acres, but we have got a substantial portion of that locked up in between our position, our legacy position that we had on the north end of our play in Campbell County to the south end of our newly acquired position in Converse County. There is some good work going on by EOG and into the south. There is some other good work going on by just speaking of few others. So we are really in the heart of the play and has the position that we like there.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Ryan Todd from Deutsche Bank. Ryan your line is open.
Ryan Todd:
Maybe if I could ask one on each of your key core plays. In the Permian, it was a -- I guess starting out, what's the early impression. You mentioned you drilled a three-mile lateral, any comments on what you saw there as a three-mile lateral potential for that to become a larger part of the program going forward within the multi zone development plans?
David Heikkinen:
You bet, Ryan. We are flowing that well backward, we don’t have the 30 days behind us to report on that. You will hear from us next quarter, but we are quite pleased with the results of what you have today. So really on an “opportunity going forward basis,” we got a three mile lateral in Delaware. We also are in the process of preparing the flow back in three mile in the stacked play as well. I don’t know that this will displace all the 2 mile laterals that we are working on and established. There is going to be some unique footprint opportunities that allow us to go to 3 miles and I think these first two wells are proving and giving us confidence that from an operational perspective. We can drill complement and flow back and a high quality well in 3 miles.
Ryan Todd:
Any ideas on extending the 3 mile lateral and the stack as well or are you keeping the Permian for now?
David Heikkinen:
No, we got -- we are flowing back -- preparing to flow back our first 3 mile lateral in the STACK play right now. It’s early, so I can't report on that. But mechanically, the drilling operation went extremely well, very cost efficient to do this. We traded all of the way to the toe of the well and we are preparing to flow that well back. So there is going to be some opportunities to fill in on our footprint to 3 mile concept, but a lot of our position is going to be more relegated to the 2 mile laterals.
Ryan Todd:
And then maybe another follow-up on the STACK, a couple of things. In the [cleaner] pie that was clearly the strong results, can you maybe talk a little bit more about what you learned on staking there and in the upper Meramac? And then you also said that was assigned winder in all new wells you're moving a little further, kind of pushing the boundary, is that further to the north and even to the east? Can you talk about maybe what you've seen in terms of the extent of the core of the play as you tested the boundaries a little bit?
Tony Vaughn:
Ryan, we're pleased with the work that we're doing. I think you saw the report out on Fleenor work there and we're quite pleased with that. I think what we are trying to highlight there is while we got an exceptional flow back results on the flinger wells, we did this with a different cost structure than what we had historically done. And ones that simply the cost going from the [indiscernible] anything about that, but it really is really associated with the modified completion design. So we're pleased with the work that we're doing on the east side of the play. I think, if you look at our '18 work, we're going to start moving that to the north and west portion of the play. We're going to -- in fact we've already spread our second multi-zone project that we call the Coyote on the Northwest side of the play, and we've piloted some wells around there that we're quite pleased will be reporting on we'll be reporting on that in some time soon as well.
David Heikkinen:
And Ryan, just to add a few more details there to Tony's comments, that was the Fleenor pilot was a stagger test within the Meramac 200. So in that area, that's the thickest zone, and so ultimately we were trying trying to maximize recoveries in that very prosperous area, so once again very successful and we'll deploy those learnings to just the next multi-zone projects that we have, so just once again you're constantly retooling what you're doing and that's just going to be an input as we head towards -- show in other projects, so.
Operator:
And your next question comes from the line of Doug Leggate from Bank of America. Go ahead, your line is open.
Doug Leggate :
So, Dave, obviously this is little bit of a change from the cash inflow versus operating cash flow, I guess, that's the subtlety of your vision 2020. So I guess my question is as you focus on the two core areas given I guess the increase in inventory what does it say about the asset sales definition in terms of what becomes noncore? And I'm specifically thinking about Tony's comments around the potter, because obviously while the returns are great the scale is not relative to the other areas. So does that become a for-sale asset and just maybe some color on your thinking around scale and timing of executing our program?
David Heikkinen:
Well, first off, you're right. We have made a subtle change what we say live within our cash flow from operations, and the reason for that is simply the strength that we're seeing both in terms of the capital efficiency that we're able to achieve as well as the returns we're able to achieve when we're focusing even more dollars into development side and in our highest return areas. So it's really a very good new story that we are been able to spend lower capital dollars live within operating cash flow and deliver the kind of returns that we're which again we're focused on returns on production growth but we'll see strong production growth as a result. Now as more specifically to the Powder River Basin, it's still early days in the Powder River Basin. We like the optionality that the Powder River Basin provides. We see that the on a go-forward basis, as Tony said, we will be focusing more of our activity on the turner and we really need to see a more results from the turner to really understand was some certainly how does it compete for capital versus the STACK and the Delaware plays. So we have a lot of optionality around and we have said we will divesting several million dollars of additional assets. It is because of the incredible strength of our portfolio that we have a lot of optionality that may come from. We are certain that we are going to have areas throughout our portfolio that someone could come in and drill development wells that will achieve returns well above the cost of capital but not as good as we're going to get in our poor plays. So that gives us a lot of optionality around where we decide to do those divestments from, and we haven't made a final decision on that and maybe one area or maybe a combination of acreage from a number of areas, but we are absolutely committed, though, to the vision that we have is just with the how we execute that vision we're still talking about.
Doug Leggate :
My follow-up, Dave, it might be for you or might be for Jeff but it really goes to the net debt to EBITDA target and the relationship with EnLink I guess is the broader question. In years gone by, you did sell down a little bit of EnLink that’s stopped obviously, but when you look at net debt, obviously you are consolidating EnLink debt, but you’re going to be going strictly intellectual about it, deconsolidating handling with also like the marketable securities and your definition of corporate net debt the recourse to Devon level? Sorry, for the lengthy question, I guess, but what’s trying to understand is what is our future relationship with EnLink? Like how does it factor into that net-debt target and do you look at it on a just Devon basis as oppose to the consolidated EnLink basis now we do there? Thanks.
Jeff Ritenour:
Doug, this is Jeff. Yes, we think about it on and the targets that we've outlined are based on a Devon’s standalone basis. So we are not including the EnLink debt or the EnLink EBITDA in that calculation.
Doug Leggate :
What about the handling to equity as marketable securities?
Jeff Ritenour:
That is not included in the calculation either. Yes, if you are asking if we’ve reduced the debt for the value of the EnLink securities, we are not.
Doug Leggate :
Okay, that's very clear. As far as your relationship with EnLink goes going forward?
David Heikkinen:
Well, I can just add from a strategic level. First off, we like the relationship very much and we think they are doing an outstanding job and particularly supporting us in one of our key development areas in the STACK but also every area where we have common operations. So we like the relationship strategically. Now whether we would ever consider a sell-downs or not, that’s certainly not on the table at this point. I would never rule it out. As there is always an option that we have out there where we certainly have no current plans around that.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Paul Grego [ph] from Macquarie. Paul, your line is open.
Unidentified Analyst :
Dave, focusing on your comments around changes to management incentives, what should we expect on those changes? You mentioned that drilling rate of return as a potential metric, has there been a consideration for corporate returns level metrics like and RACE and then for any growth metrics will they be measured on a debt adjusted per share basis?
David Heikkinen:
Let me start this answer off then ask Jeff to fill in on the details he can give. Again, we have not made a decision on this. We need to discuss this with our board and make a final decision, but this give you our preliminary thoughts that we will be taking to our board. The first comment I just want to make is we fully acknowledge that our industry in general has not delivered acceptable returns and we are absolute -- and I would include Devon in that, and we are absolutely committed on a go-forward basis to deliver acceptable returns at the corporate level to our shareholders, and that’s what this effort is all about is to make sure that we are delivering on that. We are focusing our capital program in order to be able to accomplish it. We have the asset base and we have the execution do it, but we are fully committed to provide one the right incentives internally to make sure that we deliver on that, and second, the transparency as best we can to the shareholders so that they can measure our effectiveness of doing this. And as I said in the opening comments, we have the ability to lead in this area and we intend to lead it. So Jeff, can you maybe talk a little more detail about a couple of the metrics that we are considering at this point. And again, there is no final decision we will give you our thought process.
Jeff Ritenour:
Yes, that’s right. As Dave said, it’s certainly something that we are still in discussion with our board about - well, we are going to lay out the spectrum of all the usual suspects that you would expect as it relates to these metrics. If I had to put them into two buckets, I would say one bucket is probably closer to a gap metric. So things like ROCE, or a cash return on capital employed, the benefit there obviously is the transparency and the ease of calculation to those metrics directly off the financial statements, and then maybe a second bucket which is frankly what we think is probably closer to the reality of our returns on our capital program each year, which is more of an all end-- again a corporate return, all in capital -- not just drilling capital but all capital split by the company in any given year and then the future cash flows obviously that’s going to be generated from that capital spend. That one, again as I said is we think, it's probably the better metric; however, it’s a little bit more difficult to provide the level of transparency I think that you and the investor of the universe would like to see. So we are waving and balancing each of those different options. We will discuss that with the board as Dave said later this month and hopefully lane on a conclusion. I will add as you mentioned Paul, our analysis and our historical look at all these different metrics continues to suggest that a debt adjusted per share metric is the most highly correlated with equity returns in this space. So I certainly think that whatever we land on we will have a flavor of that.
David Heikkinen:
And again, just to be clear, on that second major that Jeff talked about which is our rate of return metric, we are thinking in terms of birding that as much as we can with all other cost we incur within the corporation, so you are getting that even though it's based on wells, it is really burden with all the costs that corporation, so look at more of a total corporate return from our capital program.
Unidentified Analyst:
And then I guess as follow-up to that. How do you guys consider the role of hedging as well as exploration within the 2020 vision and bouncing against both annual corporate return is well a longer run, ROIC or corporate return metric?
Tony Vaughn:
First in regard to exploration. We are certainly in a great position where we have such a strong development inventory as we have right now. So there is not the need in the short term for exploration in order to accomplish certainly the 2020 vision. Now if you look at longer term for the company, I think that you always have to be mindful that some level of exploration should be thought about in order to have a long-term sustainable company. But certainly in the next few years the amount of capital that will be dedicated to exploration is going to be less than you might normally think for a company of our size. Now with regards to hedging, we think that hedging is an important part of the overall company business in order to make sure that we're delivering consistent results. We also think it's important to give us confidence around the cash flow that we're going to have in a given year in order to execute it our capital program. We have designed our hedging program for hedging out approximately a third of our volumes in the given year on just what we would call a systematic basis where we just take the existing prices in the market and hedge forward for a number of quarters on that basis. And then we intend to roughly get around 50% overall hedge with the other 16%, 17% or whatever, and could very little bit from that but somewhere around that, on more an opportunistic basis. And we certainly with the strength that we've seen in the market recently that we're opportunistically hedging as we speak.
Operator:
And your next question comes from the line of Scott Hanold from RBC Capital Markets. Scott, your line is open.
Scott Hanold:
One follow-up question on the EnLink, the response you've provided. Can you tell us incrementally what other strategic benefits are there to be joined up within EnLink. Do you have most of developments -- midstream developments done that you need in the STACK or is there still a lot of wood out there?
David Heikkinen:
There is still midstream development that’s ongoing. As we speak, we're certainly getting into the development program, but there certainly is build out quite a bit of midstream infrastructures still in front of us. And obviously, the hooking up up very large number of wells on a timely basis, it's important to delivering our returns.
Scott Hanold:
So certainly through '18 and maybe into '19 strategic business revision would be joined, is that fair?
David Heikkinen:
No, I think that's certainly true, yes, there's a benefit there.
Scott Hanold:
And my follow-up question would be related to again this thought on looking at being a little bit more balanced then potentially free cash flow positive in the future, and I think you guys made a point this year of really ramping up activity especially in the STACK and Delaware, for efficiency purpose. And so those -- obviously those areas are at cash flow deficit. I would imagine at the field level, can you just generally discuss when you look at -- the future monetization strategy would you look to really do that once those assets can support themselves because I think right now some of your -- the mature assets that don't get capital are actually free cash flow generative for those areas?
Jeff Ritenour:
Scott, this is Jeff. That's exactly right. I mean, I think the way we're thinking about it internally is we'd like to see the STACK and Delaware assets to get to a more mature level. They’re relatively immature today in our portfolio, just by the nature of the assets, but as Tony described with the multi-zone development that we're going to head into much bigger way here in 2018, the capital efficiency and the cost efficiency that we're going to see in those assets, we expect them to reset kind of self-sufficiency point in the not too distant future and that will give us the confidence to embark upon a broader divestiture program that Dave described in his opening comments.
Scott Hanold:
Okay, so that's self sufficiency point is probably in line with what you talk around the 2020 vision of modernizations is that right?
Jeff Ritenour:
Yes, that's right. I mean we certainly would expect to reach that point, again, assuming a commodity price environment of going to 50 in three environment but within our 2020 time frame.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Arun Jayaram from JPMorgan. Your line is open.
Arun Jayaram:
Just perhaps the follow-up on that question, are there assets today outside of the Delaware and STACK that you have considered as core or perhaps you can describe the attributes of the assets that you think will remain in the portfolio and along basis?
David Heikkinen:
Well, the key attribute that we would look at is do they compete for capital in our portfolio and is there additional value that we can create by if there are development opportunities that may not compete in our portfolio, but that we could be paid for some of that upside from that development opportunity by someone else. And so we will be looking at areas that and certainly all of our areas we feel what you are talking about the Eagle Ford, you are talking about Barnett the pattern they have some element and there may even be areas within the STACK and Delaware on a much smaller scale basis that we may not get to. They are not absolutely core to us, but that we could look at divestment? Or these are not going to be large scale numbers but they are probably somewhere within those basins as well that not going to necessarily meet our return requirements just cause are the very high return capability of so many of our development opportunities. So that's the key thing that we'd be looking at is we think the bulk of the value creation that we do in the company is when we can deploy capital a returns it's very far above the cost of capital and that's what we do in our key development areas. If we aren’t doing that and we aren’t going to fund and perhaps someone else will see an opportunity there and pay us for the part of that opportunity.
Arun Jayaram:
And my follow-up, I just wanted to check or had a housekeeping question on Jackfish. Just given the improvement in oil prices, do you expect any of those projects to reach a threshold where the royalties would increase in 2018, and also wanted to see if there is any turnaround scheduled at any of the three Jackfish projects in 2018?
Tony Vaughn:
Arun, this is Tony. We do have -- we are working a turnaround one per year. So you saw us go through J3 and then previous to that J2, did a little bit of maintenance on J2 this year, so we will be back to a turnaround on J1 in summer of '18. We don’t expect a royalty change in 2018.
Arun Jayaram:
Then that change at all to given any of the three projects in '18?
Tony Vaughn:
No.
Jeff Ritenour:
And Arun, just a real quick just to provide some color there is obviously Jackfish one is post payout. That's been post payout for quite some time. Jackfish 2 and Jackfish 3 are pre payout, and based off current strip pricing, we wouldn’t expect those to be have any meaningful adjustments in royalty factors on that front until next decade.
Operator:
The next question comes from the line of David Heikkinen from Heikkinen Energy. David, your line is open.
David Heikkinen :
The highlights kind of in the release around a projected NPV uplift upgraded that 40% as you look forward to the STACK and Delaware kind of caught our eye, but can you help us understand kind of to find the starting point for where the NPV is in the STACK now and then how the 40% or more is there, and then same thing for the Delaware’s starting point so kind of know where you are going on that uplift for the multi-zone development?
Tony Vaughn:
Dave, this is Tony. The comment about the 40% uplift in BB10 is really in comparison to a typical historic four or six-well pad. That’s just the delta that we see in front of us by utilizing this multi-zone concept. As we have mentioned before, we already saw 20% of the cost come out of the first project in the Delaware basin. We really haven’t even optimized in my mind the opportunity in front of us. And you are starting to see the concept of more batch operations utilizing sputter rigs to get the surface whole drilled followed by the conventional drilling rig to drill the production string. And the utilization, the centralized production facilities that will be equipped to handle production from multi pads have a drill to field type concept is a substantial boost. So if you just look at the typical work process and the game chart, this is the way that we are lining out all components of that and give you order to magnitude. When you take a rig on typical Delaware basin well, you take the rig and move it to another pad to couple of miles away. It's an additional 3.5 days of nonproductive time until you are back moving a bit. And simply skating over for a multi-wheel pad, you have got about a half a day of down time. So this is the type of work that we think is something we have been planning and talking about for two years. We are just now coming into this space, and again we think it’s a game-changer for the type of contiguous multi-zone switch spot type projects that we have.
David Heikkinen :
I guess I'm going to try a little harder. So if I think about a four or six well pad, I mean if we just think about NPV per well of kind of $15 million to $20 million bucks and you get 40% more than that on each set of four to six wells, in fact how it ends up flowing, I'm trying to get the hard numbers on the where the four to six well pads would have been, and this an NPV, incremental NPV beyond invested capital?
Scott Coody:
David, this is Scott. A lot of numbers float around there and I think ii Ill honestly that I have a spreadsheet that it’d be very happy to walk through at my desk after the call. So just to maybe keep a little bit harsh strategic questions so that I can handle later on.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Jeffrey Campbell from Tuohy Brothers. Jeff, your line is open.
Jeffrey Campbell:
We have got a lot of capital allocation questions, so I thought to stick to a couple that are more we do with field. So I'm looking at the operation support. I just want to referring to Slide 16, it shows number of interesting multi-zone projects with beginning with that condo at the top going down in the due, so I was just wondering because -- particularly because there is a number of different zones and multiple interval of all these different projects. So any of these -- anything that you would still consider to be a delineation or project or a testing zone interference or anything in any way I wouldn't want to call exploratory, but something of that nature, are these all just purely development projects at this point for efficiency?
David Heikkinen:
These are all development projects, and we've done a lot of pilot work over the last couple of years, we feel like we have a really good understanding of the lateral space and requirements for the different zones that we work in. We're continuing to gain more insight into the vertical connectivity. When you go into the Delaware Basin for instance, you've got about a dozen different known commercially productive horizons there. There's a pilot work we've established what we believe to be zones that are pressure dependent on each other and some that are independent of each other. So we're utilizing that knowledge to really focus here on what we consider to be the high-return, low-risk development projects in front of us. That doesn't mean to say that we're not going to do a little bit of a spacing work or test zone in a column that we know to be pressure in communication with the rest of the column. We're going to complete a little bit of that will happen. But for the most part in the Delaware Basin for 2018, you'll see about 90-plus percent -- maybe 95% of our capital spend will be on development.
Jeffrey Campbell:
And then returning to TRP, just earlier in the discussion it was mentioned that you guys have a very large acreage position there, but I'm just curious -- I think I understood Dave to said that going forward this is really going to be a concentration on the turn and of course you have the Super Mario project area laid out. So I am wondering is as you really hone in on the return going forward, will it still contain enough resource to support a core play as well results pan out and what I'm thinking is illustration on Page 17 kind of shows that the Parkman, the Teapot, the Turner. They all seem to do sort of discreet in different portions of the acreage.
Tony Vaughn:
You're a little bit right. Now there are some vertical opportunities in the Turner. There's a couple of different zones in the Turner that we look at, and there's a portion of the footprint here that'll have the traditional mulita-zone potential but not like you see in the Delaware Basin, but I would tell you that in addition to the key department Turner that we talked about there's a lot of activities that's happening in the deeper horizons, the Niobrara is the source rock here. But there are some results happening just south of our footprint in the Niobrara. We got about eight producing Niobrara wells on our footprint that we acquired a couple of years ago, and on the per foot basis even though the wells the laterals were very short laterals and probably not frac with the knowledge that we have today, they're encouraging. And so if you look at the Niobrara being ubiquitous across the play source rock there, moving that into a commercial development over the next few years would be a step change for the Powder. So there's some other zones that both Devon and other some of our peers are pursuing outside of the Turner and the Parkman.
David Heikkinen:
Another way to describe it too is if you look at Page 18, you can see clearly the potential does exists there and the Turner was about 400 or so high quality locations, potential -- and this is very early on in the spacing test and weather is going to play out. That way but that area could be significant, the other thing you have to think about too, and I'm not saying would or wouldn't consider this for monetization outside of some core area we defined in the pattern but you also want to know what's your potentially monetizing and what you have potentially given up and what their right value for that is to. And so even though - and one of you -- and Tony described some potential, for instance , in the it is still exist up there and you want to have some idea for what that potential truly is in order to make sure you are getting the proper value for the shareholders before you would consider that.
Jeffrey Campbell:
I mean I think that's a great point, and if I could just follow-up it's just first time I'm aware that you guys are talking about the Niobrara, one word just to have something to visualize. We are thinking about some areas that might the potential to have a DJ Basin type of setup where there is and A and B and the C or is it kind of essentially be one extra zone that could be added to the Turner or suff0x or whatever else you might mess around with?
Tony Vaughn:
I think it's too early to define that. I know the B and the C have been tested in the Basin , ut I'd say for our particular area we are doing to be some work in 2018 and start to understanding that and we've got a good technical team just map this southern port the southern work that has been ongoing and there is some new work that’s just north of thus that it is also helping us connect the docs in activity. So a little bit early to define what this might look like.
Operator:
And your next question comes from the line of Jamal [Indiscernible] from KPH & Company.
Unidentified Analyst :
I know it's been touched on a little bit but just wanted to talk about the spending at operating cash flow again and if it's to be implied that this handling distribution are going to be used to cover the dividend and also just wanted to think about the delta between handling distribution, which are quite a bit higher than a dividend and how you all the think about that as that as they continues to pick up?
Jeff Ritenour:
Jamal, this is Jeff again. Yes, you’re exactly right. As Dave mentioned earlier, several difference and how we've described our going forward game plan which is to spin within operating cash flow, so that would meet the handling distributions would be on top of that. But as you pointed, out we do have a dividend and the EnLink distributions more than offset that. So we are still between the two with that some incremental cash available.
Unidentified Analyst :
And then just quickly one to talk on at the Jacob's pad, that was whether mix in this release just kind of one to think off your updated thoughts in terms of development in 2018 for that pad specially given some of the ongoing spacing incurred by your partner?
David Heikkinen:
Yes, I think we're anxious to see some of the spacing test just south of our Jacob's and Lou. I think that's going to be very informative for us to continue to design work on our particular project. We've actually engineered the Jacob's project we've continued we are thinking about deferring that outside of the 2018 capital program. Most of that thought process is really because the Merrimack and the STACK work were doing right now is so commercial and prolific. And so it's the Jacob's and the Woodford are now getting displaced by the Merrimack type opportunities from a return perspective, and as we've mentioned before, we're setting up these multi-zone developments in the in both in the STACK and Delaware. In fact, we have about 29 known projects identified that will get us through the next couple of years on these two basins alone. So we got it engineered and slavered as it competes but right now it's we are finding that we have got other opportunities that have higher returns that we will displace that.
Jeff Ritenour:
And that’s some pretty important data that our partner and this development is going to be obtaining from their spacing test. It’s a pretty dramatic down-spacing with their testing there and if that works so we certainly want to know that before we commence on this Jacobs annually development.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Biju Perincheril from Susquehanna.
Biju Perincheril:
Jeff, just a quick follow-up question on the Fleenor pilot. Is that the two wells in the 200-zone testing should have the optimum landing point? Or in that area, do you have sort of enough thickness to have two separate wells within the 200 zone?
Jeff Ritenour:
This is really testing the landing zone is the primary purpose of the test, and again, this is a staggered approach. We have seen some advantages by staggering even within the same specific interval. That just to settle difference tends to provide a better performance from the offset well. So it was really a landing zone with a staggered concept, and then again we slightly modified our completion design there which really moved about $200,000 out the completion and still got the results that we posted here.
Biju Perincheril:
And those completion improvements, is that is replicated STACK or not. Is there any of that built into the 2018 sort of preliminary plans you’ve provided?
Jeff Ritenour:
It will be. It’s a data point that we have here, so we will continue to work that. It happens to be with some of the product that we use during our completion process. So we got a data point now that was positive and will continue to better understand that. But those are the subtle opportunities that we are seeing across the board. We have got a culture of innovation in the company that frankly we haven’t seen to-date that are exploring every component of our business, and it’s a some nation of a lot of settle changes like this that’s really heading up until that present value up-list, perhaps 40% on these type of projects.
Scott Coody:
We’re now at the top of the hour and there are several still in our queue. So if we did not hit your question today, please don’t hesitate to reach out Investor Relations team at any time today, which is obviously consisting with myself and Chris Carr. But we appreciate your interest in Devon and we will talk to you next time. Thank you.
Operator:
And this concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.
Executives:
Scott Coody - Vice President of Investor Relations Dave Hager - President and Chief Executive Officer Tony Vaughn - Chief Operating Officer Jeff Ritenour - Chief Financial Officer
Analysts:
Doug Leggate - Bank of America Merrill Lynch Evan Calio - Morgan Stanley Ryan Todd - Deutsche Bank David Tameron - Wells Fargo Charles Meade - Johnson Rice Arun Jayaram - JPMorgan Chase David Heikkinen - Heikkinen Energy Advisor
Operator:
Welcome to the Devon Energy Second Quarter Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Today conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the call over to Scott Coody, Vice President of Investor Relations. Sir, you may begin.
Scott Coody:
Thank you, and good morning. I hope everyone has had the chance to review our second quarter financial and operational disclosures that were released last night. This data package includes our earnings release, forward-looking guidance, and detailed operations report. Also on the call today are Dave Hager, President and CEO; Tony Vaughn, Chief Operating Officer; Jeff Ritenour, Chief Financial Officer and a few other members of our senior management team. I would like to remind you that comments and answers to questions on this call today will contain plans, forecasts, expectations and estimates that are forward-looking statements under U.S. Securities Law. These comments and answers are subject to a number of assumptions, risks, and uncertainties, many of which are beyond our control. These statements are not guarantees of future performance and actual results may differ materially. For a review of risk factors related to these statements, please see our Form 10-K. And with that, I will turn the call over to Dave.
Dave Hager:
Thank you, Scott, and welcome everyone. Devon achieved another high quality operating performance in the second quarter, building operational momentum in our U.S. resource place and accelerating efficiency gains across our portfolio. These successful efforts result are in a record study and well reserves that growth of our U.S. oil production above guidance expectations with a capital investment that was 17% below our budget year-to-date. As a result of this strong capital efficiency we are lowering our full-year capital outlook by $100 million and importantly we have not made any changes to our planned activity levels in 2017. For more details on our very strong performance for the quarter, I encourage every investor to read about our Q2 operations report. With this momentum, we are highly confident in our ability to deliver value and returns on our investments plans over the next few years as we navigate industry conditions. For 2017 our capital plan remains on-track to reach 20 rigs running by year end and we expect to maintain this operational momentum in 2018. Importantly nearly all of these plan drilling activities concentrated within our STACK and Delaware Basin assets which are two of the very best position place on a North American cost curve delivering attractive returns even at today’s strip prices. To be clear, we are not chasing product growth with our capital programs and remain keenly focused on maximizing our full cycle returns. With this disciplined approach to the business, I can confidently say that this drill bit activity is a very appropriate level of investment for Devon in this environment. Providing additional certainty to the execution of the business plan is our strong financial position. With a disciplined hedging strategy, we have stabilized our cash flow stream by locking in roughly 55% of Devon’s estimated oil and gas production for the remainder of the year at rates well above market levels. Additionally, we are steadily accumulating our hedge position in 2018, with this strong hedge book, we remain on-track to invest within cash flow during 2017, coupled with our investment grade ratings, no significant debt maturities until 2021 $2.4 billion of cash on hand and the expectation of a $1 billion of non-core divestiture proceeds over the coming year, we absolutely had a financial capacity and flexibility to execute our business plan. Given our ability to organically fund capital requirements, Devon is uniquely positioned to maintain and build momentum into future as we advance our development programs in the STACK and Delaware Basin. The quality and size of this world class opportunities ahead us unmatched in the industry. Between the STACK and Delaware Basin alone we have exposure to over 30,000 potential drilling locations concentrated in very best portions of these place. This premier asset based provides Devon with a sustainable long-term growth opportunity with the lowest breakeven economics of any repeatable resource play in North America. Additionally, as these asset shift to full-field development, we fully expect to enhance returns as we reap significant efficiency gains from our multi zone manufacturing work and further optimize our best in class operational performance with cutting edge, predictive analytics and artificial and - efforts. Looking to the end of the decade, Devon’s differentiated investment story only gets better, our resource rich STACK and Delaware Basin development programs will be in full blown manufacturing mode and the massive upside potential within these franchise assets will be further defined. As these strategic objectives are successfully met, we expect to take additional steps to further high grade our resource rich portfolio. In fact as our business evolves over the next several years, we see the potential of the monetize several billion dollars of less competitive assets within our portfolio in a very thoughtful and measured pricing. Potential proceeds from these portfolio rationalization efforts would be balance between accelerating the development of our highest rate of return inventory and debt reduction activities. With this exciting multiyear transformation, we expect to emerge with the highly focused asset portfolio and our profitability would be dramatically enhanced as we transition to a much higher margin barrel. We also intend to have a fortress balance sheet with net debt-to-EBITDA target of 1.0 to 1.5 times by the end of the decade. These winning characteristics will allowed Devon to deliver consistent, competitive and measured growth rates along with top tier return on capital employed. So, in summary before we move to Q&A, I want to leave you with a few key messages from today’s call. First, Devon is consistently delivering best-in-class Delaware results to reflect our premium assets and operational excellence. With the quality returns, we are achieving in the STACK in Delaware Basin coupled with our outstanding financial position, we are on-track to reach 20 rigs by year-end and expect to maintain our strong operational momentum in 2018. And lastly, as our massive resource set in the STACK and Delaware Basin shift to full-field development mode, we will continually high grade our portfolio by divesting assets. And with that, I will now turn the call back over to Scott.
Scott Coody:
Thanks, Dave. We will now open the call to Q&A. Please limit yourself to one question and a follow-up. If you have any further questions, you can re-prompt as time permits. With that Operator, we will take our first question.
Operator:
Your first question comes from Doug Leggate with Bank of America. Please go ahead.
Doug Leggate:
Thanks. Thank you. Good morning, Dave. Good morning everybody. A couple of questions Dave. I guess the one is kind of the housekeeping issue on Canada. Can you just walk us through just the issues in the most recent quarter and the trajectory as we move through the backend of the year. just trying to get a handles as to what do you think the sustaining production capacity in the auto sign at this point. And I have got a follow-up please.
Dave Hager:
Great. Doug and I’m going to let Tony answer the details. Obviously, we did encounter what we consider to be a one-time maintenance event is it impacting our production. In July we’ve actually move beyond that that’s fixed that issue is, but Tony can give you the details of that. And I can tell the asset in general is performing outstanding, we just had a one-time maintenance event that’s in a rear view mirror as we sit here today and things look outstanding from this point forward. So, Tony you want to follow-up a little detail on that.
Tony Vaughn:
Yes. Good morning, Doug, Doug at J2 we have these very large skim tank vessels there that are really of large diameter vessels this got dapples in it, it is designed to move water and oil through a last stages of separation and extend the retention time. And what we found was we have a pretty sophisticated leak detection system in our Jackfish projects we recognized that we had a small leak in the J2 skim tank areas. So, we got in there and recognized that what we suspect is through vibration of the flow into those dapples that were down the bolt and brackets system causing some of those brackets to drop, one dropped and punctured the bottom of that vessel. So we got in cleaned the tank out and took a look at it, we knew exactly what the problem is, so we only did that on J2. We also just did a turnaround in J3, we suspected this issue in J2, so we have been in the in two of those skim tanks in the last 30, 40 days and we will be in the third at J1 within 12 months from now. So really it was an isolated event that’s now behind us and I think we had this solution remedy and if you just look at the forward just like Dave mentioned, we have production at all three of these Jackfish plants really operating at name plate and above. In fact J2 and J3 the two that we just took down that are already rent backup and access of the name plate capacity and expect both of those to be back in the mid 40,000 barrels of oil per day. So when we get into the Q4 with the claim quarter we will be back into that 140,000 barrels of oil per day range and again a long life project in front of us. So this is just one of event that’s in the rear view mirror now Doug.
Doug Leggate:
I appreciate the color. Thanks for that. I guess that the follow-up is, I’m not quite sure how to ask this question efficiently. So when you look at the third quarter guidance I think at least versus the dump sale side that was a little bit late, but still you hasn’t change which I think chemist speaks to the potential lumpiness of moving to these very large developments are going to characterize the production profile I guess forward. So I just wondered if you could help us navigate that a little bit in terms of what that trajectory you had laid out with all these very large full-field developments going on, what that could look like as we go into next year and how you how ratable you expect that goes to be in I guess there is multiple pieces but I will leave it there and let someone else jump on. Thanks.
Dave Hager:
If you look at the issue that happened with probably maybe a little bit like guidance compared to what some people are expected in Q3 on the U.S. oil side is we had a large number of completions in the Eagle Ford in Q1 and that caused really strong performance compared to guidance in Q1 and also carried over to some degree into Q2. But those wells obviously fall off fairly quickly. When we originally put the budget together we had anticipated a little bit more balanced on the completions in the Eagle Ford and have submit in more in Q2 it would cause a little bit higher production in Q3 and where we ended up. So in essence we completed those wells early, caused strong performance Q1, Q2, we had no Eagle Ford completions in Q2 because we got them done early and so that caused Q3 Eagle Ford to fall off a little bit more than was originally anticipated. But again extremely economic wells, some of the best in the portfolio we just moved the production forward as water boiling down to. As we get more into the full development, what is going to happen is that we are going to have multiple numbers of these multi zone developments going at anyone given time and certainly in any individual one you can say there will be lumpiness, but we think there will be enough of those. It’s not going to call us extreme lumpiness in the overall production profile for the company and keep in mind also that even as we are moving into these ,the bulk of these are going to smaller to start with and as we get further on in the development they will growing size most likely, but by then we have even more going. so that’s sure there are going to be some lumpiness to it, we anticipate with a number of lumpiness or should be the number of developments we have going on. The lumpiness will not be too magnified.
Doug Leggate:
I appreciate the answer, Dave. Thanks a lot. I know it’s a tough thing to describe.
Dave Hager:
Yes. And let me just emphasize to we’re still on target to grow our U,S, oil production by 2018. And so there is no change in that guidance at all.
Doug Leggate:
Great. Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Evan Calio with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.
Evan Calio:
Hi, good morning guys. Yes. When are your STACK developments schedule for next year, Coyote, it’s in the far north western areas of your acreage. Just any color, do you think that to be party or acreage as de-risked or mature for development or is that dependent upon Coyote. And maybe more generally, if you can just discuss raw quality well performance or expected well performance difference between your focus areas in Showboat [indiscernible] and what do you expect around the Northwest Coyote?
Tony Vaughn:
This is Tony here. I just kind of describe to you that we have broken down our footprint in the STACK prospect here into several different what we call the appraisal areas and of course Showboat is really in appraisal area one where we’ve had some lot of success we’ve reported on that but we’ve also been in the process both us and industry de-risking our next couple of appraisal areas. And so, the Coyote project will be in one of these top couple of appraisal areas that we have been de-risking. So, the way we look at this is we’ve got a great understanding and the Meramec 200 and the Meramec 300, you are starting to see some results come in across the board and Meramec 400 some from Devon but some from industry. We have seeing some in the west from other operators that have not performed up to the same quality of results that we’ve seen in the 200 and 300, none of that was unexpected I think from us, and I guess I got to remind everybody on the call Evan that this commitment that we have to being highly data driven is we think is really laying us out to be a the premier operator in the field. Number one, we have got what we think is the best footprint in the play, but really we have this commitment to being data driven and have acquired substantial amount of subsurface data, we’ve built that into the three dimensional earth models and that’s really the basis for all the design work going forward. So, when you look at some of the results we have over there, industry is doing a good job right now of piloting different ideas from spacing and lateral intervals to vertical connectivity type testing to just simply appraising different horizons. And we’re moving into what we think are going to be the sweet spot of each of these intervals that we’re in. So we are expecting a good performance out of the Coyote project.
Evan Calio:
Great. Thanks. And maybe second if I could. Yes, Jacobs Row was downsized I guess not surprise given commentary for your partner. How do you deploy free of capital from lower non-op activity in 2018. And could you provide us some color on how do you would compare Woodford full development returns versus your STACK Meramec or your Delaware program and I will leave it there?
Dave Hager:
Yes. Well obviously we look at our portfolio across the entire company and we allocate our capital to those on a risk adjusted basis provide us the highest return. And so we when we look at redeploying capital such as that, we will look across the entire company and see where the best place is. I can tell you in general that we will be redeploying any capital there back into the Meramec development or into the Delaware Basin development. Those are very good returns, so we think we’re going to get there, but we think we have - they are probably a little bit less on average, we would say that we can get from our Delaware and Meramec program but not significantly less, but there is obviously less condensate production on those than the other players were pursuing. So that’s where the capital would be redeployed.
Evan Calio:
Okay. Thanks a lot guys.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Ryan Todd, with Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.
Ryan Todd:
Thanks. Maybe one question on CapEx if we look at the CapEx that you announce that the full-year, what were the primary drivers and how do you see those trends as sustaining or evolving over the course of the year.
Dave Hager:
Well the primary driver for the CapEx reduction is just the increased efficiency that we have been able to achieve in across the entire asset base, I would say one big factor in that as our supply initiative where we have decoupled much of the completion activities where we are supplying our own sand our own diesel and we see significant savings from that. We’re also just through the use of our advanced predictive analytics, artificial intelligence work we are finding that not only are we is it helping deliver best of any operator a 90 day IP, there is also driving our costs roller as well. So we feel really good about where it is, we’re very confident obviously the $100 million reduction there maybe some upside to that we will have to see how the second half goes. We do anticipate there maybe some increase inflationary pressure in the second half of the year and so that may drive our costs a little bit higher than they were in the first half of the year. We will just have to see how that goes, but we decided as appropriate at this point just take what we are sure of which is a $100 million reduction and then see how things evolve in the second half of the year.
Ryan Todd:
So far the early takeaway is which I think Jacobs Row with some of the first kind of larger scale unbundled efforts that you had made on supply chain mainly, the takeaway has been a little bit better than expected. Is that fair?
Dave Hager:
And the efficiencies across our entire portfolio of just drilling wells more effectively, et cetera. Yes.
Ryan Todd:
That’s great, thanks and then maybe one follow-up question on the Meramec. You had some comments in there about results that you have seen in-production results today, have you seen any spacing pilots in the Meramec. I think there has some noise and confusion around some of the pilot results that we have seen across the play from some of your peers in the basin that’s caused them concern. So any thoughts that you can share on what you have seen so far across the spacing pilots and views on what that it means for kind of full-field development in the Meramec?
Dave Hager:
I will kick it off, I’m going to probably just going to repeat what Tony did, maybe are just slightly different words here, but if you look at it our operated spacing tests have been very, very successful. We have seen on some of the outside operated spacing test or has been some very successful and ones but some have had mixed results. When we look at those test that others have done, we can’t say for sure why they tested it exactly what they tested, but the results are not a surprise to us. Now, without going to the specifics of each one sometimes we’ve seen that they have been testing zones that we know have would be thinner and wouldn’t have the kind of productivity as other zones that are in the same geographic area. Why they tested that, they are probably just trying to get an idea of the productivity of our secondary or tertiary zone we suspect. In other cases, we know that they have been grilled on the fringe of what we consider the key part of the play to be. In some cases we think that they have used completion designs that are not as a sophisticated as what design we are using. And we’ve talked a little bit in the press release about the proprietary completion design. So, to our view point there is nothing this surprised us with our test which have been very successful or some of these others that had mixed results and in just affirms, we have the best position in the play and that we understand what is going on, on here. So, that’s kind of an overall view. And would also say it that it is very early on in the play and I suspect and we don’t know for sure, but I suspect in some of these cases these companies maybe testing the limits of certain things. And they learn from these and as they go into full-field development it will be better results. And so I would be very careful about extrapolating the results from any early experimentation that maybe taking on in the play, say this is the way it’s going to work on the full-field. But I suspect they knew what they are doing, we don’t know exactly all the reasons. We suspect they knew what they are doing and they are just testing a limits of certain things to see if it would work or not. But, again it’s no surprise to us at all in any of the results we have seen.
Ryan Todd:
Great. Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from David Tameron with Wells Fargo. Please go ahead.
David Tameron:
Thanks. Good morning. I’m just going to reference the slide, I think it’s 15 in your deck, just the route area. Can you just give me an update of kind of Seawolf, it looks like this development pattern changed from maybe what you had been thinking. Can you just give us the latest and greatest thinking as far as that relates to or I guess the focus on this area and realizing every areas is different. But, can you just update us on that as far as the development patterns and how many wells per section, et cetera.
Scott Coody:
Dave, this is Scott. And absolutely that a systematic change slightly. I think we added one or two more wells from last year and we got a little bit more specific with regards to the landing zone. I think this time around we include the X, Y because that’s a common nomenclature in that area. And obviously we’re doing an appraisal well and lower Wolfcamp bay as well, but maybe Tony could speak to just what we’re trying to accomplish at that particular pilot, which we call the Seawolf pilot.
Tony Vaughn:
David, as Scott mentioned the well that we’ve reported on here in the lower portion of the upper Wolfcamp A, was just below the highlighted Rattlesnake area there. It gives us a little bit of upside thought process on the lower portion of the Wolfcamp, but if you go back to the last quarterly call, where we’ve reported the results of the Fighting Okra well. It’s just immediately south of the spot on the map that says the word Seawolf. And so there you saw the outstanding results that had there in upper portion of the upper Wolfcamp and this Seawolf is really going to be our first what we call our first multi zone development in Rattlesnake and we have got a substantial amount of locations that we have highlighted in our resource play. Starting right here with this will spread the 12 world program and the Wolfcamp and as we work that of we will just move those three rigs from that location start moving to the East and probably delineate that Rattlesnake area. So what we don’t show on this is a lot of industry activity that’s been around this and there is been some boomer wells there. We feel like this particular portion of not only of our play that this particular portion of the Delaware Basin is perhaps the best column in all of North America, so we are expecting a very robust long-term development just in this Rattlesnake area.
David Tameron:
Okay and just noticed the B maybe versus the prior to the Wolfcamp B is no longer part of that plank, you talk a little bit about I know others have done the same, can you just talk about your thinking there?
Tony Vaughn:
There is not been a lot of data points that have come through in the lower portion of the Wolfcamp A or the B, there has been some other nomenclatures, Wolfcamp 300 and 400, there has been some data points out there few and far between, some of those have been in fact a bit disappointing. So we know there is a very rich hydrocarbon column here, lot of oil in place, we think it will come with time, but we also think we can maximize our present value by focusing on the upper portion of the Wolfcamp. And we know that we can come back and drill back through that zone and get to the lower portion of the Wolfcamp which we frankly right now we are not prioritizing in our development because we just have not de-risked it, we don’t see the activity from industry really shown us the results either.
David Tameron:
Okay, thanks for that color. And then Dave can I just ask one about [indiscernible] sell the Barnett or a portion of the Barnet and I can imagine what your answer is going to be, but because we have talked it about in the past, but I’m just thinking about in terms of returns and generating cash flow you know historically it has generated lot of free cash flow, it doesn’t’ look like you are going need that over the next couple of quarters or a couple of spending gap or can you just talk about your decision there?
Dave Hager:
Well you are right, we don’t needed for the shorter term. What I tried to do paint in my prepared remarks at the beginning of the conference call here is where we see directionally we are going and by 2020 and that is as we are moving into full-field development in the STACK and the Delaware that we will become a more streamlined company eventually and we see in the billions of dollars of asset sales that we may accomplish over that timeframe and in a very measured way as we balance our cash inflows and our cash outflows. Certainly there are several different areas that we can consider and I’m not going to go into detail on any decision over regarding any specific area or assets that we have that we may consider from monetization. But in general, I mentioned that we would certainly most likely be divesting several billion dollars of assets, we see using some of that to further development activity in the STACK in the Delaware Basin and also repaying debt with a portion of those proceeds to build an extremely strong balance sheet with a net debt-to-EBITDA on the order of 1 to 1.5. So, we think that financial strength is going to certainly position us with a great deal of strength in any commodity price environment. We think that’s really the key for a top performing E&P company to have, we have franchise assets, we’re executing very well on those assets and we will further streamline the portfolio and we will have one of the best balance sheets and not the best balance sheet in the industry when we are finished with his total transformation. And so certainly the Barnett or some other assets configure into that equation, again we’re making no decision on that today and certainly no announcement on that today. But we certainly have a lot of flexibility about how we go about accomplishing this strategic objective, but that’s where we’re going.
David Tameron:
Okay. Thanks, I appreciate it.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Charles Meade with Johnson Rice. Please go ahead.
Charles Meade:
Good morning, Dave and to rest of the team there. I would like to ask two questions on the Delaware Basin. First on the Seawolf development. Can you talk about what if any lessons you are able to bring from your multi zone high intensity development plans over in the STACK to the Delaware Basin in to that development or is it more of just a blank slate and there is not a lot of portability of lesson from one to the other?
Dave Hager:
Hi, Charles. Thanks for the question, we do find the ability to transfer learning between our Delaware and STACK teams, in fact we’ve been on this multi zone design for about two years now and that’s a really thoughtful work that has going on with our technical teams in both areas. I meet with each other, so transfer learnings quite easily here, we’re all centralized in this building so makes it real advantageous from that perspective. One of the things I think unique about the Delaware is really the federal permitting aspects is a little bit more complicated than it is in STACK and I think in the last conference call we talked about receiving our first master development plan which was played as a 162 well permit that we received in [indiscernible] and we feel like we’re very close to having three more of those master development plans approved by the BLM which will set us for about 600 to 750 potential locations left. And the benefits we see from this multi zone development concept is just much more efficient not only permitting exercise that we are going through as I just described but really we layout the integrated surface facility concept for each of these areas. And in that we’re able to use the centralize production facility not just by one pad or two pads, but in our planning there, when we start looking at the chart and laying out all of these different projects we continue to use these surface facilities for a given area. So for instance in Seawolf while that will be the first 12 well project we will drive. We will continue to run additional projects producing through that centralize production facility for some time to come. So, we will maximize the rate capacity in that facility for a while. We also feel like there is tremendous ability to increase the efficiency of our operations and just to give you order of magnitude on that, when we put in a park of that three rigs in a half section or quarter section type area and don’t have to really move those rigs from location-to-location, we will not got about three days of rig time out of the what is normally about a spud to TD time of about 10 bay. So the more we keep our operations centralize there, we can continue to think of things in terms of batch operations, so we will use had the flexibility use spudder rigs to get to surface pull drill and then come back behind with our conventional rigs for the production stream, we will also be able to do simultaneous operations and it will actually have some frack operations ongoing in some of these projects while we drill and produce. So tremendous amount of present value uplift by thinking a little bit differently than industry has taught up in the past, and we’re incorporating the same concept throughout the Delaware and the STAC development shows.
Tony Vaughn:
Charles, the only think I would add. I think you had a really strong list a bunch of stock there that one thing is we probably have as much experience as anybody out there in the industry what we would call the parent child relationship in any given area. In other words the relationship between the first well section and what the ultimate down spacing might be and what kind of completion designs optimize recovery given that. And so that’s something that we have obviously studied from Eagle Ford to the STACK and the Delaware and we feel we have a really good understand, you have to actually drill the wells in many cases to know absolute results, but we have a pretty good understanding of I would say what is going to optimize the overall recovery for the highest returns around that and that comes from experience and drilling in a number of different areas and transferring those earnings from one place to another.
Charles Meade:
Right, that’s great color guys, and you guys are pushing the envelope within the industry on that kind of concentrate development. And that actually leads to my second question, you guys have highlighted the Seawolf development, but I couldn’t have noticed that just in north you have got this [indiscernible] development that just maybe a little bit behind those schedule with actually more wells and so maybe can you give us little more color on what the plan is there?
Dave Hager:
Charles we have laid out, I think what we show here to be really these projects that will be initiated through the later part of 2017 and into the early part of 2018, so we have got a gain chart that actually goes beyond that with additional projects there, but as you the focus for what we call the distilled areas really largely going to be the Leonard and little bit of bonds claim type work and some Wolfcamp work there. So it’s just another - the project that we have talked about in the last operating report and the one that we mentioned in this the Anaconda is really a three interval test on the Leonard that we are completing those wells and starting to bring those online. We will have operating results of those in Q3 but at this point we’re looking at those as very favorable results, so I did say it’s just really just a continuation of the development of that column.
Charles Meade:
Got it. Thanks guys.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Arun Jayaram with JPMorgan Chase. Please go ahead.
Arun Jayaram:
Yes. Dave, I wanted to see if you can elaborate a more on your thoughts on this longer-term vision perhaps this leaner and meaner Devon with the focus on the STACK and Delaware Basin. I’m just trying to get a sense of how we should think about how other assets fit into the Devon portfolio as you are thinking about maybe deleveraging through assets sales and particular at Canada?
Dave Hager:
Well, thanks Arun. We obviously have a number of strong assets throughout our portfolio. It appears that those will have the greatest development opportunity are going to be the STACK and Delaware Basin. And then to probably a lesser degree and the anticipated price environment and again we’re basing - we’re a thrive in a $45 to $50 well and we’re not counting on higher prices. So, we are building a company here is kind of succeed and be one of the top companies in the current price environment. And in that world it looks like STACK and Delaware are probably going to lead the way as far as development opportunities on the number of other areas we will have some developments such as Rockies and others are going to be providing more cash flow to the company. So, we’re on the cusp of really moving into full-field development in the STACK and the Delaware plays and when we do these plays are going to be out absorbed and generate very strong returns. And again, I want to emphasize again, we are a returns oriented organization, we’re not just growing for growth sake, but we think we can generate very strong returns in those plays in this price environment. If there is any question about the quality of the wells that we’re drilling again I would refer people back to page six of the operations report where we show we have the highest 90 day IP in the industry. So, we can talk 24 hours, you can talk 30 days all that, but when it comes to 90 day, we’re the leader. And we can generate very strong returns from that. So, as we do, we do see that some of these other areas could potential provide divestiture opportunities that would allow us to further our development in the STACK and Delaware Basin. And I’m not going to go as far as saying what specific it was, because that’s going to or continue to looking at that and we will continue to look. It will be a measure a very thoughtful process, we will be balancing our cash inflows and cash outflows as said and we’re going to use sum for debt repayment to build this fortress balance sheet. So, beyond now there at this point no further discussion, but obviously we’re going to look at all the key criteria when making that call, but it’s a great position to be in where we have a very strong asset base, we’re executing now IPO very well on that asset base. And we are going to continue to increase the focus of the company.
Arun Jayaram:
Okay. That’s great. And just my follow up Dave, in a $45 to $50 world we had been thinking about Devon based on your previous kind of commentary of kind of balancing your internally generated cash flow plus the in-link distributions with your CapEx. Given how you maybe embarking on this asset sale program beyond the 20% sale in the Barnett. Is there a comfort perhaps to spend above that amount with asset sales kind of plugging the delta there.
Dave Hager:
In essence yes, is the quick answer to that. Now again we are driven by returns first and we are we only do it if we feel we can generate good returns with the capital that we are deploying. We are confident in that price environment that we can generate good returns in the STACK and Delaware Basin plays. And so depending on these circumstances we would certainly be open to using a portion of divestment proceeds to further development of those plays and then a portion of that to pay down debt to build this strong balance sheet as well.
Unidentified Analyst:
Great. Thank you very much.
Operator:
[Operator instructions]. Your next question comes from David Heikkinen with Heikkinen Energy Advisor.
David Heikkinen:
Good morning guys, thanks for taking my question. Just a quick question Jackfish one, do you expect similar skim tank issues and inspections ongoing and potential downtime?
Tony Vaughn:
David could, we solve a little bit of evidence of the bracket issue in J3 skim tank, we had no detection this time at J1, you also have to remember we have already been in this skim tank at J1 in the previous turnaround. So, we’re really not expecting it to be initially, but we will certainly made the same type of proactive repair work that we did in J2 and J3 while we are in the tank.
David Heikkinen:
Okay and then just on the Hobson Row you highlighted that in your 2Q ops report can you talk to all about what the current production is and how it actually contributed to the volume I’m just trying to get an idea of those 39 wells are actually producing?
Jeff Ritenour:
Obviously the Hobson Row the key driver behind our growth in STACK this year, we have revamped STACK production by that 20% and that’s largely driven by just the success of the Hobson Row and what we are seeing there and maybe I handed it over to Tony where he can talk about just what we are seeing from the type curves and more importantly how we are going to deploy that success to the Jacobs Row. Tony.
Tony Vaughn:
Dave I don’t have a whole lot to add to that. We reported a little bit of the results on the last operating report, the work that we have done so far in this particular quarter has been type curve type results, so we didn’t really highlighted individually, but I will tell you we pumped near 500 million pounds of sand in that work and from an execution perspective the team did outstanding results. And there is a great partnership between the operating guys and the supply chain guys that we have there, I think Dave mentioned earlier, this is the first area that we decoupled great success there and we think we dropped about 15% of the cost of those that work out of this system just through that operating efficiencies there. We are very excited about extending the work from the is a normal lateral work that we have historically done and to the long laterals, we got the all the wells completed now, they are all starting to flow back, we will be able to report on those results in the next quarter, but again when we start looking towards the future in this and understanding what the value of the long lateral will bring we think the returns through this development are as competitive as much of what we have in the portfolio.
David Heikkinen:
And just on that cost savings. How do you think that will flow through to your future development cost reported in your reserve reports. Should we expect a down or trend and Devon future development cost as you kind of lock in this decoupling of services and just trend deposit?
Dave Hager:
Well I think that certainly is a positive driver towards, yeah towards lower F&D now. Obviously as you pursue more oil oriented plays as you well know David those tend to be a little bit F&D type plays in general. But that element would help mitigate to absolutely.
Jeff Ritenour:
Yes. One other thing to add on that Dave, real quick is just ultimately as you start heading towards those multi zone developments for the majority of our capital is going to be concentrated going forward and that’s going to be another tailwind as well. So very concentrated capital programs combined at the supply chain, we would expect to show very well in this metric in the upcoming year.
David Heikkinen:
Thanks guys.
Scott Coody:
Well, I guess it looks like there is no one else in the queue. So, we will wrap up the call today. We appreciate everyone’s interest in Devon. And do you have any other questions feel free to call the IR team anytime and that consisting myself Chris Carr. Have a good day.
Operator:
Thank you. This concludes today’s conference call. You may now disconnect.
Executives:
Scott Coody – Vice President, Investor Relations Dave Hager – President and Chief Executive Officer Tony Vaughn – Chief Operating Officer Jeff Ritenour – Chief Financial Officer
Analysts:
Arun Jayaram – JPMorgan Chase Doug Leggate – Bank of America Merrill Lynch Philip Jungwirth – BMO Capital Markets Edward Westlake – Credit Suisse Scott Hanold – RBC Capital Markets Jeffrey Campbell – Tuohy Brothers Ryan Todd – Deutsche Bank Evan Calio – Morgan Stanley Matt Portillo – Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Company
Operator:
Welcome to the Devon Energy First Quarter 2017 Earnings Conference Call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. [Operator Instructions] This call is being recorded. I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Scott Coody, Vice President Investor Relations. Sir, you may begin.
Scott Coody:
Thank you, and good morning. I hope everyone's had the chance to review our first quarter financial and operational disclosures that were released last night. This date package includes our earnings release, forward-looking guidance, and detailed operations report. Also on the call today are Dave Hager, President and CEO; Tony Vaughn, Chief Operating Officer; Jeff Ritenour, Chief Financial Officer, and a few other members of our senior management team. I would like to remind you that comments and answers to questions on this call today will contain plans, forecasts, expectations, and estimates that are forward-looking statements under U.S. Securities Law. These comments and answers are subject to a number of assumptions, risks, and uncertainties, many of which are beyond our control. These statements are not guarantees of future performance and actual results may differ materially. For a review of risk factors related to these statements, please see our Form 10-K. And with that, I will turn the call over to Dave.
Dave Hager:
Thank you, Scott, and welcome everyone. As you can see from our first quarter results, Devon's three-fold strategy of operating in North America's best resource plays, delivering superior execution, and maintaining a high degree of financial strength is working exceptionally well, and generating top tier results. Our production in the quarter exceeded guidance expectations by a wide margin. Our margins and profitability continue to expand as we transition to a higher margin product mix, and capital programs continue to achieve efficiency gains as we shift our focus toward full-field development in the STACK and Delaware Basin. On the call today, I will focus my comments on three key messages. First, we remain very well positioned to accelerate investment across our world-class U.S. resource plays, and deliver on our 2017 and 2018 growth targets. By the end of this month, we will have 15 operated rigs running in the U.S., focused primarily within our top two franchise assets to STACK and Delaware Basin. As we progress through 2017, we are on pace to steadily ramp up drilling activity to as many as 20 rigs by year-end, resulting in a $2 billion to $2.3 billion upstream capital program for the year. Importantly, providing additional certainty to our accelerated investment plans, our attractive hedge position, excellent liquidity position, and innovative supply chain efforts. With our disciplined hedging strategy we have stabilized our cash flow stream by locking in more than 50% of Devon's estimated oil and gas production for the year at or above market levels. We are also systematically accumulating additional hedges for 2018, and expect to protect the price on at least half of our production in 2018. Coupled with our investment-grade rating, and $2.1 billion of cash on hand, we have the financially capacity to execute on our business plan. On the supply chain front, given the heightened competition for services and supplies in our core basins, we are taking aggressive steps to ensure that we have the resources and capabilities to achieve our growth plans. With this proactive work we have successfully secured equipment, crews, materials, and take-away capacity at competitive prices, and at the bottom of the cycle. Additionally, to achieve the best results for LOE and capital dollars we are mitigating inflation by decoupling historically bundled high-margin services, and are utilized in a much more diversified vendor universe base. Also adding to our savings are the continued efficiency gains we're achieving across our early stage development plays, where the majority of our capital is invested. As we shift to full-field development in the STACK and Delaware Basin these efficiency gains will only ratchet higher. As a result of these strategies, strategic supply chain initiatives, and operational efficiencies, we have completely offset inflationary pressure through the first part of the year. Overall, when you combine our financial strengths, and our innovative supply chain initiatives with the prospects of our top tier STACK and Delaware Basin assets, we are highly confident in our ability to deliver the value and returns associated with our growth plans over the next few years. The second key takeaway is that we are building momentum across our U.S. resource plays as we head to full-field development. As we have talked about at length over the past several months, we expect 2017 to be a breakout year for our Delaware Basin asset as we concentrate our activity in the economic core of the basin within southeast New Mexico. In fact, the initial well result from our development program in the first quarter, were truly fantastic. Our first operated Wolfcamp well in the Rattlesnake area achieved the highest production rate of any well Devon has brought online in the Delaware Basin to-date. With 30 day rates reaching 3,000 BOE per day, we also tied in three high rate Bone Spring developable wells during the quarter with production rates that exceeded our type curve expectations by 30%. In addition to our high rate well activity for the quarter, our shift to full field development in the Delaware Basin is now underway, we just completed drilling our first multi-zone development targeting three Leonard shale intervals and we have as many as four more multi-zone projects lined up to begin in the Delaware over the coming year. This development approach is expected as several advantages that will drive higher returns compared to traditional pad development work including improving rig and frac crew mobilization times, leveraging surface facilities across multiple drilling units, increasing per section recovery potential with improved planning, maximizing net present value as flexibility to add or defer development zones and more efficient permitting process on federal lands. Additionally to maintain similar cycle times to traditional pad drilling, we plan to deploy concentrated development and completion activity across these larger developments. To position ourselves to accelerated activity across the Delaware Basin in 2018 and beyond, we have recently submitted four Master development plans to the Bureau of Land Management designed to accommodate up to 600 permits, in fact we just received notification of approval for a first master development plan at the Cotton Draw and expect the other three plants to be approved by year-end. This innovative permitting strategy will allow us to accelerate our multi-zone development activity, maximizing returns and per section recoveries from our world class acreage. In the Oklahoma stack play, our capital activity also delivered outstanding well productivity, with the Woodford development program, we have now brought online the majority of the 39 well Hobson Row which results from this high impact road tracking at or above our EUR type curve of 1.6 million BOE per well. Hobson Row is one of the key drivers of our STACK growth plans in 2017 and gross production remains on pace to exceed 40,000 BOE per day by the end of the second quarter. We're also excited about our next Woodford development, the Jacobs Row, we were deployed to learning attained from the Hobson Row and leverage larger completion designs across extended reach laterals, which we expect will boost returns associated with the Jacobs project to among the best in our portfolio. To the north and the over pressured oil window of the STACK our appraisal work during the quarter confirmed the potential for up to four landing zones in the core of the play. This appraisal activity will help further refine our initial multi-zone stack development, the Showboat project which is satisfied in the third quarter. While still preliminary, our plans call for drilling 25 to 30 wells across two drilling units at Showboat, co-developing both the Meramec and Woodford formations. With additional appraisals of success in the core play, we could increase spacing to more than 20 wells per drilling unit with future development projects. To provide perspective on the scale of our stack opportunity, we have identified approximately 400 drilling units that are candidates for multi-zone development work providing us with a highly visible growth platform. Looking beyond the Delaware and STACK, we also had impressive results within our Eagle Ford and Rockies assets. The initial flow back results from our nine Well Diamond spacing test in the Eagle Ford were very strong where 30 day rates averaging 2,100 BOE per day, with this pilot we have confirmed the Upper Eagle Ford as a commercially viable landing zone adding to our multi-year inventory in the field. Our initial Rockies drilling work also delivered impressive results. Our first four Parkman wells crushed type curve expectations by averaging more than 1800 BOE per day of which 95% was light oil. Making the Rocky story sizzle even more for the quarter, are the results from recent state and federal lease options, winning bids that offset our southern acreage position recently $17,000 per acre. As a reminder, we opportunistically secured our leasehold position in this area for about $1,000 an acre in late 2015. And my last key message is that Devon absolutely possesses the low risk development inventory due to deliver sustainable long-term growth. Between the STACK and Delaware Basin alone which are two of the very best positions, position poise on a North American cost curve, we have exposure to more than 30,000 potential drilling locations. These world class assets provide Devon with a highly visible multi-decade growth platform. And as you saw in our press release last night, given the massive growth opportunity associated with our STACK and Delaware Basin assets, we simply have an abundance of opportunities within our portfolio. This high quality dilemma has resulted in our initial step to bring value forward with a $1 billion non-core asset divestiture program over the next 12 to 18 months. The non-core assets identified for monetization includes select portions of the Barnett Shale focus primarily around Johnson County and other properties located principally within the U.S. Looking beyond today's announcement, I also want to be clear that our risk resource base in the U.S. has the potential to a further expand with ongoing appraisal work in STACK and Delaware Basin. With successful delineation results, we would evaluate strategic options for additional non-core asset sales in the future. The bottom line is the divestiture program combined with our excellent liquidity and strong hedge position supports our capital program and places us firmly on track to achieve our multi-year growth targets. Additionally, the certainty associated with our capital programs uniquely positions Devon attain strong operational momentum through the end of the decade. So in summary, I believe Devon clearly offers investors a differentiated opportunity in the E&P space. We have a great collection of assets, we will continue to get the most out of these world-class assets with superior execution and we have one of the more advantageous capital structures in the E&P space. As we continue to execute on our disciplined business plan, we are well positioned to generate outsized returns for our shareholders for many years to come. Now I will turn the call back over to Scott.
Scott Coody:
Thanks Dave. We will now open the call to Q&A, please limit yourself to one question and a follow up. If you have further questions you can re-prompt if time permits. With that, operator we'll take our first question.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from the line of Arun Jayaram with JPMorgan Chase. Please go ahead.
Arun Jayaram:
Yes good morning, I was wondering Dave if you could maybe give us some more details on the multi-zone development, you mentioned that you had submitted kind of four master development plans, I was wondering maybe you could give us some details on what one of these development plans could look like at Cotton Draw in terms of the different zones between the Bone Spring Wolfcamp, Avalon et cetera?
David Hager:
Arun, I'm going to take the first part of this, Arun, and good morning and I'm going to turn it over to Tony talk about the specific zones that we've been developing but talking a little bit about the Master development plan and that's really something that we are one of the first companies to do in the Delaware Basin and basically it takes a lot of the risk out of the permitting. As you know, we're developing this on federal acreage and historically has been difficult on a well by well basis to get an inventory far enough ahead of your drilling program to have the confidence that you can you can execute on a drilling program, with this master development program that essentially gives us a permit for a large area you see submitted four across and it's going to give us 600 and average about 150 per master development plan, we have the first one in already and so with that then all you have to do is get the individual ADPs which are a much, much shorter process and are really not on the critical path at all. So this is a great concept that we've been working with the BLM on, we appreciate their cooperation on this and it's really a huge step forward for allowing us to go to a much higher rig count and you've seen in our operations report we said we're making plans not initially but up to 20 rigs out there and this is a big part of that. So Tony, you want to talk specifically about Cotton Draw a little bit?
Tony Vaughn:
You know, Arun, appreciate your question, this is some planning works that we've been incorporating into the halls [ph] of Devon for about the last two years. And again as Dave mentioned, we appreciate the partnership that we have the BLM. It's really worked out to our advantage. And so if you look at the concept that we're describing in these multi-stacked horizons here, we're starting off with some fairly small sized, small-scaled, multi-stacked, multi-well pads. And so as we just commented on, we just finished a drilling of our Thistle Area 10 well pad. We will have a 20 well pad in the Delaware Basin by year-end. We'll gradually transition from fairly small pads in 2017 and early '18. And by 2018 and beyond, we'll be a little bit larger in scale. But the benefit for something like Cotton Draw which has actually got prospectivity for 17 that will include the Bone Springs, Delaware, Leonard, and Wolfcamp. We will be prosecuting all those areas there. This one design allows us to have a larger sized pads not in surface areas much as in well count. And it will have a centralized production facility that each of the pads will be able to flow in to. This starts optimizing the surface facility; starts optimizing really the manufacturing process that we have. We will be able to have simultaneous operations as we go through the work. So provides a lot of the inherent efficiencies and our plan with a deep inventory that we have talked about in the Delaware Basin, we just knew there had to be a better solution than just a historic 2 to 3 wells per pad environment.
David Hager:
And I might add I outlined in prepared remarks some of benefits of these type of well, but I know one of the push backs we've had is people are concerned, oh, my gosh, is this going to look a major offshore development in terms of timing with going this direction. Two comments on that, first is as Tony said, we're starting out small. So you are not going to see a large [indiscernible] 10, 15, 20 type of well sized pad initially. And the second point is in each of these pads, we are going to have multiple rigs working [ph]. And so, bottom line is you are not going to see a significant timing shift as we go from two to four wells per pad to a larger because of how we are going to concentrate our rigs on there to get it -- to keep the timing the same. So that concern is -- we have obviously been thinking about that, and we believe we have been working on that for a long time.
Arun Jayaram:
Great. Thanks. And my follow-up, I wanted to talk a little bit about the four extended reach wells that you're doing at the Hobson Row and what are your thoughts around the Jacob's Row? I think you talked about a 70 well development with Cimrax, I assume that's the standard lateral NSPs, four extended reach lateral wells do okay at Hobson, how could that influence your development plans for the Jacob's Row?
David Hager:
Arun, we are really through all of the -- on the Jacob's Row -- on the Hobson Row excuse me, we are all the way through the completion of our normal lateral wells, and as you can see in the report, seeing very encouraging results. We've upsized the frac designs. And we decoupled our operations there. I will talk a little bit more about it as we go through call. I hope that great efficiency of operations. Execution phase is going really well. We're just now getting to long laterals that we described in the plan for the Hobson Row. We're fully expecting that long lateral is going to be the design of the future. And that will be what we incorporate into the Jacob's Row. What I'll also comment on about we have 50:50 partnership with Cimrax there as you mentioned. We are continuing to work with their technical teams on what the -- what the forward plan is for capital allocation, both in Devon and in Cimrax. Right now, we're expecting to prosecute our three well section at the -- in Q4 of this year, we are expecting Cimrax to be close that same timeframe, but for right now, we're fully anticipating long lateral designs as we forward, and -- but we are fully focused on starting our three well program in middle of Q4…
Arun Jayaram:
And just to clarify is the Jacob's Row going to 70 long laterals or single laterals? I wasn't quite sure.
David Hager:
It's going to be -- Arun, it's going to long lateral. Every time we can drill long lateral, we are going to drill long lateral. So I think if you've looked at lay out on the map that we highlighted here, they are all going to exposed to long lateral drilling.
Arun Jayaram:
Okay. Thanks a lot.
Scott Coody:
Arun, this is Scott. Hey, as you know, just a standard length lateral you are looking at 1.6 million equivalent on recovery basis. Right? So when you extend these laterals out with the Jacob's the returns ratchet significantly higher raveling what you are seeing in the over-pressured oil window in the Meramac. So, it'll be a great project for us and we are pretty excited about our spurting activity which will occur in Q4.
Arun Jayaram:
Thanks, Scott.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Doug Leggate with Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Please go ahead.
Doug Leggate:
Thanks. Excuse me. Good morning everybody. Excuse me. So, I wonder if I could start off with a question on inventory, Dave. And I guess it relates also to your billion dollar proposed asset sale. There are multiple pieces to this question, I guess, but just looking at all the data you've given today. You talked about going to 20 rigs. And at Delaware, you talked about 2000 unrisked locations. But yet your inventory in the Wolfcamp is only 500. So when do you basically get a little bit more disclosure, or, what do you need to see to step up the inventory in both the Delaware but also in the [indiscernible] landing zones now that seem to be working in the quarter the STACK. It seems your inventory is substantially understated. And my question is what that means for your -- timing of your non-core disposals as your inventory extends? If I may, I have got a quick follow-up to that, I will be glad. Thank you.
Dave Hager:
Great. Well, I think you are hitting it exactly right, Doug. We see significant upside to our risked inventory. We obviously had a great well there with the Fighting Okra, and there has been some great offset wells to that. We are going to have a significant portion of our appraisal dollars in the Delaware Basin going to additional Wolfcamp wells here in the second half of the year. We are also going to be doing a lot more appraisal work up in the STACK. We take the approach so we want to see the actually results before we really put it into the risked inventory. But we have every confidence based on our well results and other competitor well results that this is going to continue to increase. And we've looked as I said in our prepared remarks we look at this divestiture program as a first step. We think it's an appropriate first step because obviously commodity price has also has softened somewhat in the past few months. We are confident that we have a program already that we are planning on in 2018 that's well beyond the 20 rigs that we will in 2017. And we even talked in the last operations report, we didn't put in this one but a 60 and 3.25 $6 WTI, 3.25 Henry Hub, we will be generating about $3.5 billion of cash flow - upstream cash flow. So prices have fallen off a little bit from that. But with this, divestment program and that certainly gives us increased certainty that we can deliver on the growth results even if commodity price has soften because these wells are still generating incredible rates of return even at somewhat lower prices. So want to execute it. Our operations teams are fully prepared to execute on that. And this gives us additional confidence that we will have the cash to generate that. Now as we further upraise these areas such as the Wolfcamp and additional landing zones in the STACK, we will consider additional divestments as appropriate if they are appropriate. And so, I would just look at this as certainly a single for how we are going in the future as we think this is the appropriate first step. But as we finish our appraisal program, there could be further steps. We continue with our appraisal program, there could be further steps.
Doug Leggate:
So just to be clear, Dave, so, you are basically saying Devon lives within cash flows including asset sales?
Dave Hager:
Essentially at this point, that's right, yes.
Doug Leggate:
Okay. My follow-up is really on the relative economics across the different place. Obviously you've got a ton of things that are emerging that are competitive and what sits at the back of my mind is the rocky statement you made in the presentation. In order to provide a per acre value one would argue that you are trying to get the market to focus on the value of your acreage, but of course that only gets realized if you monetize it, and any reasonable timeline? I guess you can say the same thing about [indiscernible] recent sale of their oil sand. Again they got a big valuation for that, It's probably not getting recognized in your stock. So when you look to build the growth in inventory that you are clearly having in these areas, how did this relative areas within your business compete for capital? In other words, where would your incremental first look be to monetize, would it be Delaware slope, would it be the rest of the Barnett, would it be part of the Rockies, would it be oil sand, just how do you think about, how you prioritize non-core asset sales?
Dave Hager:
Well, first off, I would say. We are not just trying to highlight it. We also get all the necessary I guess build in when you sell it. I think we can have that discussion over a beer someday I guess. But I don't think up sell all of our assets to get value recognized for it but what we are trying to say is that other people starting to recognize the value that we have and we think that should start showing up in our stock price. The most important thing I can say is we are conscious strategy here and Devon has been to not only be in some of the best place in onshore north America, but to have the best positions and the best place in onshore north America. These are big place and they always in these place are as good spots to be and not so good spots to be and we are focused on being in the best and so I think when you look at our well level economics we will stand them up against anybody in the industry because we are in the heart of the best place onshore north America. Tony, do you want to add any comments from a relative viewpoint on the economics, but I am telling you they are all pretty outstanding.
Tony Vaughn:
I think one thing Doug that we are proud about is we picked up our position. We expanded our position in the powder at a time when the industry really didn't understand the potential value there and now the industry has recognized that but if you look at the returns that we had before commodity prices cycled off, returns that we had in the powder where every bit is good, if not at the top end of our results in late Q4 or 14 and again if you look at the six wells or four wells that we talked about for this particular quarter. Again, there is a top end of our portfolio, so it's an equivalent capability to the Delaware, the best of the Delaware and the best of STACK, it just doesn't have the same skill to us as the other. So as commodity prices rise and additional cash flow is generated, it's going to be a great opportunity for us.
Doug Leggate:
I appreciate the answers, guys. Thank you.
Tony Vaughn:
Thank you, Doug.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Philip Jungwirth with BMO. Please go ahead.
Philip Jungwirth:
Thanks, good morning. Question on the Barnett of the 400 to 500 million of cash flow expected in '17 just trying to understand the high level, does this include the -- in these de-payments and how should we think about any upside to Barnett cash flow de-contract, who are closer to the market rates.
Dave Hager:
Well, I can certainly handle the first part of that with regards to the cash flow that we put up and that's net of all of our transportation and processing cost. So absolutely and I guess so could you repeat the second part of that question. I'm not sure I heard that clearly.
Philip Jungwirth:
Just trying to understand how much upside there could be to that cash flow number if the AT&T contract within link we are in your vehicle sort of market rate?
Dave Hager:
At that point you know, Philip that's undisclosed there is confidentiality regarding that. So that's not a number that we are going to be able to provide for you today. But I think the key takeaway is that these are very valuable assets that are generating free cash flow. So this isn't like other comps that occurred previously in prior years. This will be an asset that will be sort after and we expect to have good market as we look to market the asset.
Philip Jungwirth:
Okay, great. And then, there has been a fair amount of or say the activity up towards northwest Dewey and Woodford County and we didn't had that's one filing, one empty position up there, I was just hoping that you help frame Devon's position in this area and is there anything to discuss in terms of well reserves, thoughts on the player or future activity plan?
Dave Hager:
Philip, I think we've described that we have about 80,000 acres as what we call the northwest tag extension. We've acquired that position, just through a lot of organic leasing and picked up a few real small pieces. We have some well active in area we are really not ready to disclose that but we are encouraged and excited about the opportunities going forward and so I think at this point as well that's where we are leaving.
Philip Jungwirth:
Great. Thanks, guys.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Ed Westlake with Credit Suisse. Please go ahead.
Edward Westlake:
Yes, good morning and it really feels like you are making progress de-risking this multi-zone perhaps in the Delaware. I mean each of the individual wells you give us later on. As you go to sort of a sectional development, are you ready at this stage to kind of like give us some kind of overall sectional tight curve and well cost or is it still too early?
Dave Hager:
Probably the challenge to do that and good morning it is that. It really depends a lot on where you are and even in some cases you will find that some zones have already been developed and we will developing other zones as well. So there is, it's a fairly complex thing to try to give you a perception. In some cases there are. As Tony said we have Bone Springs, we have Leonard we have Wolfcamp, we have Delaware all of those in other areas such as our initial development and this we are just developing three zones in the Leonard and there is every other variety as well, but I guess the key is they are all working incredibly well, but it would be a very, it's not really possible just as to give a tight curve per section. I don't think because as a variety.
Edward Westlake:
Okay, I think you know, when I think of the inventory and the value of the inventory. I'm trying to think of reasons why that the shares aren't reflecting in that and that sort of uncertainty maybe one of them although we can see obviously it's very good well results?
Dave Hager:
Well, I see we said we have just a -- such a deep on risked inventory and we are going through an appraisal program and we will certainly layout even. Bottom-line is everything is working and it's working extremely economically right now and so as we continue this appraisal throughout '17 and even in the future years, you are going to see this inventory expand, we are confident to that. We just want to get the results before we give all the details.
Edward Westlake:
The other comments in the up support around operational efficiency we are very interesting you talked about unbundling obviously the inflation starting to appear in certain lines but maybe if you can talk a little bit about how any examples you can share of how the unbundling of say problems or pressure pumping or other lines is leading to savings relative to say you know, a year ago or Q-over-Q however you want to describe it?
Dave Hager:
Ed, we are seeing attention and cost escalation across the business. We've been very pleased. I think we commented in the past. So we are going to be able to mitigate about 75% of that cost escalation throughout Q4 '16 to Q4 '17 with just some good planning and good operational efficiency. We are seeing that in fact if you look at our capital spend through Q1 we are a little it light and we feel like we are being able to mitigate any tension we have on the system. Guys are doing extraordinarily a good job right now with the planning, not with execution but the planning of the work that we do and so when you guys are looking for we are already working out into 2018 and 2019 planning or work there allows us to go to providers, give them certainty about the long-term plans that are able to make more definitive long-term decisions. That's helping us in a big way, so we like to have control over our destiny as a lot of companies do we find that when we have good plans in place, good partners and control over the project schedule we can excel there. So, we have actually contracted and secured our 2017 sand or all of our work in the mid-time and then also in the Delaware we have entered into a contract to secure the 100 mash [ph] sand for all of our STACK work for three years out. We find that the sand mines are pleased to be working with the end-user because we have definitive plans and also we are not at the mercy that some of the larger scale pressure pumping providers because we are getting plans from a lot of people that may not be as fine tuned and is well thought through as ours and so we would tend to get shuffled at times and so if I went back and looked at to look back on our work that we just completed on the Hobson Row, I think we've had a total of seven hours of delay not having sand on location rate of pump. Historically, we would have three times that amount on single jobs at times, when we were depending on turnkey type work. So we've got some outstanding work across the organization that is allowing us to have good relationships. You're starting to see the OCTG market inflate as well. And we've had some long-term relationships with three providers there that we stuck with them during the downturn; they're sticking with us in the up cycle, so we're able to mitigate cost on the pipe side of the business. And on the drilling rig side of the business you're starting to see the, I guess I'll call it the high-spec end market for rigs is starting to diminish. And a little bit more pressure there, but our relationships with a couple of primary providers there have helped us get through that. We're also taking the opportunity to contract longer term in some of these spaces. And while we've always had a fair amount of our rigs under term -- In fact, right now I think we have 11 out of our 15 rigs under some amount of term. But we're also now moving that into the frac space. And so, four out of six frac crews that we have working are on one-year term as well. So the guys are continuing to think forward. Our operating team and our supply chain group work extremely well together doing some good design work in-house. And so, we feel like we got places across the business that we essentially [technical difficulty] are gaining operational efficiencies that we didn't have two years ago.
Edward Westlake:
Thank you for the first answer.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Scott Hanold with RBC. Please go ahead.
Scott Hanold:
Yes, thanks. Just kind of curious as you look at the STACK play and discuss the opportunities to get three to four potential formations for obviously these pad developments that sound pretty exciting. When you step back, how are you going to delineate the test of how many places have that say third or lower Meramec available or the Woodford available, is that something that you've got a good sense of right now or is there still a lot of work to get there?
Dave Hager:
Scott, I think if you've watching the release on where our well activity has been, we've been really appraising around what we call appraisal areas one and two. In appraisal area one we'll have our first development that will start in Q3 of this year, we call that the Showboat development. In and around that particular area we feel confident that we understand the horizontal or the lateral spacing per zone very well. We're also getting fresh information on the vertical connectivity. And so we've got a lot of data on what we call the Meramec 200, and now we're seeing it on the 300 and the 400. That's being included, and that's what's described pictorially on one of the exhibits that we had in our operating report. So, in the specific area of the Showboat development we've got great pilot results in. It's giving us the confidence to incorporate parts of three different intervals in the Meramec. And as we continue with this development in Q3 we're also continuing appraisal work as we start moving to the western portion of the field. So if you look at the latter half of '17 and the early part of '18, we'll be moving rigs more westerly than they had been to date. We're also going to be learning from our results as we go here. And so the first development, for instance, that Tony described here, is in the Showboat area. Well, our next development will be most likely a little bit to the west of this, so that we then learn from the Showboat and any actual well results. And sometimes there may even be some questions, I think, on the operations report. One of the things, that we don't have as many wells on that diagram in the lower part of the Meramec. But it's because we think there is a question as to whether these are in vertical communication. And less wells is good; if you can get the hydrocarbons out with less wells, that's actually good. But we'll learn from the actual production from that to help us guide our future development, and when we move back into that area. So we have a very well thought out, very well planned approach to this so that we will be bottom line, optimizing the NPV overall or the capital efficiency that we're going to get from this program.
Scott Hanold:
Okay. And I hope that this is not putting words in your mouth, but in part where you're looking to delineate first and move to is part of it, it sounds like maybe a sickness of the Meramec?
Dave Hager:
As you move to the west and to the south a bit, Scott, you are moving into a sicker portion of the Meramec in the, what we call, the 300 and 400 intervals. So you would see more oil in place in those middle-to-lower sections there. So you're right, it changes as you go from the eastern part of the field over to the west.
Scott Hanold:
Okay, great. And as a follow-up question, the Barnett Shale potential sale, can you guys give us a sense of how much net production you'll have there? And maybe if you'd even extend that to that cash flow expectation or estimate that you all have put out there today or yesterday. What portion would be associated with that?
Dave Hager:
The planned divestments are about 20% of the leasehold production reserves and the cash flows, a simple way to think about that.
Scott Hanold:
Okay, I understand. That's great. I appreciate it. Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Jeffrey Campbell with Tuohy Brothers. Please go ahead.
Jeffrey Campbell:
Good morning and congratulations on a very interesting quarter. First, going to the multi-zone concept, as you continue to evolve this concept I was wondering is overall pad oil cut versus overall BOE potential a consideration factor regarding which zones might be developed?
Jeff Ritenour:
Well it is, Jeff. And I think Dave was trying to articulate the full matrix of considerations our technical teams are going through right now. And so if you look at the different intervals, some are completely de-risked and already in the development phase and some have very little data. As an example, the lower portion of the Wolfcamp, we have higher oil cuts in some than others. And some are just more prolific from a traditional rate perspective. And so there's a complicated matrix that the guys go through. I'd have to tell you that we'll be focused on generating maximum present value and returns from each of the multi-stacked developments that we go into. There is also an optimized size that we look at. And we think that we can get up towards savings, roughly, of about 20% in the DNC side of this up to a certain limit of wells before you start seeing that cost benefit degrade. And also, returns will be maximized at a certain point. And then with too large of a program will turn over, and also diminish. So, guys are looking at this on a project-by-project basis. And it's harder to describe that. But they'll be looking to maximize value and returns.
Jeffrey Campbell:
That was a helpful answer, I appreciate it. And then this is a little bit higher level one. Both the Barnett and the Delaware Basin are proximal to the Gulf Coast and growing that gas demand. Ultimately, can the legacy Barnett nat gas compete for capital with what might be viewed as associated nat gas in the Delaware Basin?
Jeff Ritenour:
Well, the nat gas that we have seen, the drier gas opportunities in our portfolio for the most part are not competing for capital as well as our more oily-oriented areas that have associated natural gas. Now everybody likes to talk about these more oily-oriented areas. There is in most cases a fair amount of natural gas that comes along with those; it varies play-to-play. But there is a fair amount. But I think we have not focused much drilling in our portfolio on dry gas opportunities. And so that's one of the things that we obviously are thinking about here as we look at our divestment program. There are still opportunities that can generate returns well above the cost to capital. It's just our portfolio is so high quality they may not generate capital within our portfolio. So we think there's a great market out there, and there's an opportunity potentially to move value forward. We're just trying to make those type of decisions at the appropriate time. And I think you saw the first step of it with our announced divestment last night, and described earlier the rationale for the timing and the magnitude of that.
Jeffrey Campbell:
Right, understood. Thanks very much.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Ryan Todd with Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.
Ryan Todd:
Great, thanks. Maybe let's start out with one in the Delaware Basin. I know you have limited results in the Wolfcamp right now. But in the past, you had talked about lack of capital deployment in the Wolfcamp, the view that wouldn't compete on a return basis with the Bone Spring, and the Leonard, I mean. First well there look quite strong and I mean would you still at this point based on incremental data we've seen over time characterize -- how would you characterize returns competitiveness of the Wolfcamp versus the Bone Spring and the Leonard and could this have any impact and how you think about deployment of capital within the Delaware going forward?
Dave Hager:
Ryan, we're actually very positive view in the Wolfcamp going forward and we've seen some industry derisk the Wolfcamp around us and we've reported on the hiding of our well ourselves so we're highly encouraged with the opportunity in the Wolfcamp will compete for capital as well as our Bone Spring Delaware and Leonard going forward if you really step back about a year, year and a half ago we didn't have the infrastructure built in the southern portion of our play there so that was a learning experience we had to think you also saw about that time we had very high lease operating cost for BOE. All of that infrastructure we've caught up with our selves now, and so, we've got full water being pipe we've got power grid system across our position there in the Cotton Draw and in Rattlesnake area. So we'll have a much healthier commercial answer for Wolfcamp development going forward, and if you just look at the areas of focus for 2017 probably about 50% to 60% of our well activity will be focused in both Leonard and the Wolfcamp going forward. So we're encouraged by the quality of results that we're seeing in Wolfcamp.
Tony Vaughn:
I would more directly to answer your question I still think the highest returns are in the Bone Spring and the Leonard has come up. The Wolfcamp is certainly improving significantly and it has the largest upside to the inventory.
Ryan Todd:
Okay. Thank you, that's helpful. And then maybe one follow-up on the multi-zone developments, you talked about some of the drilling and service level improvements and efficiency you might I wasn't sure if you just said there you could see 20% DLC improvement, but if you quantified what you think the efficiency improvements might be in multi-zone development relative to defend a single well that you've told in the past and then we talking about a 10% improvement in kind of capital efficiency 20% any ability to ballpark that.
Jeff Ritenour:
Ryan, that was trying to describe a little bit earlier, but we have quantified that guys do a really good job of planning out these developments to maximize the efficiency of the developments. We think these multi stacked developments have the opportunity to reduce total CapEx cost by about 20% on a given section as compared to the historic two to three wells per pad and if you go through the long list of positive attributes that these new designs will yield, but we think it's a game changer for the large inventory that a company like Devon has.
Dave Hager:
And I'll just reiterate one more time I said it earlier too, but you're not going to see a significant timing differences, this is not like an offshore development Tony and I've worked a lot of offshore developments we know what offshore developments look like it. You're not going to see significant timing difference are compared to what you've seen historically which I think has been some of the concern.
Ryan Todd:
Great, I appreciate the clarity.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Evan Calio with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.
Evan Calio:
Good afternoon, guys. Last to cover maybe a bigger picture question, you what level of well performance you guys factor in your full-year production guidance and is it, that based on your actual type curves or something higher and I'm asking the question could you just reported excellent well results across all three of your major basins and most significantly above those type curves that the full-year production guidance for means unchanged this is kind of contrast between the guide and the information the ops report.
Dave Hager:
Yes. Well, first off, the well results are outstanding as you said there's absolutely no hedging on that, but actually I understand that the current year well results proportionally to the total production is pretty down small and so there's a lot of other factors that go in to your production guidance beyond just the current year well results. So, and then, obviously I think everybody's figured out by now that, what is shifted between our outperformance here in Q1 and somewhat lower guidance in Q2 is just the fact that we moved, we're able to get some Eagle Ford completions accelerated into Q1 production and so the full-year guidance is unchanged it's just we got production on a little bit earlier and that's on those wells, but they do go on incredibly economic wells. But they are come on very high rates and have pretty steep declines, and we'll see some of that in Q2 in Eagle Ford. So there's just a lot of factors that go into the full-year production guidance were beyond the current -- beyond just the type curves that are -- that we publish, but obviously we are pleased that in several areas we are exceeding type curve expectations…
Evan Calio:
Make sense.
Dave Hager:
Yes, I will add in, one more Tony.
Tony Vaughn:
Yes, just I want to give a little kudos to the work our technical teams are doing on the completion side of the business is driving some of the sap performance and if you remember even I think it was probably several quarters ago that we showed that our 90-day IPs were number one out of 30 most active operators in the U.S. base and that was in 2015 and 2016 you looked the data, in 2015 by the way with the average of our per well performance was over 600 BOE per day. When we look at 2016 our average for new wells brought on is over 900 BOE per day. So we took -- what we thought was an outstanding performance and '15 continued to evolve doing some really sophisticated subsurface modeling, frac modeling and have increased our 90-day IPs another 50% in 2016. And you start looking at Q1 results in '17 it's a little higher than where we left off in '16, so the guys are continuing to put the pedal down and really outstanding results.
Evan Calio:
Understood.
Jeff Ritenour:
And just a point of clarity real quick that those are for a 90-day rate and then also the gas piece of that production which is being adjusted on a 21 basis as well, so that would account for some of the reconciliation versus some of the 30-day rate you're seeing in our operations reports.
Evan Calio:
Great. So will look for that in the 2018 numbers, it sounds. And my second question is on the little bit fall from the asset sale programs to pick up on your opening comments and some of the Q&A discussion. The asset program appears to be its employees to grow as organic location count grows. How do you think about optimal inventory that defines how much is non-core so either in years of inventory region or return driven program and somewhat related to me is the vision to scale asset sales with the deliberate before the capital or more pace just with the down spacing results?
Dave Hager:
Yes. That's a great question and it has a really hard question to answer it's kind of like the old reserve production ratio, you're going to have too much and you can have too little and what is the right number and I can give you some directional thoughts on that. I don't know that there is an absolute right answer, but I tend to think of somewhere around a 20 year inventory at anticipate that will be very economic locations that anticipated prices. Is kind of a quick summary of before I would say I don't think it does a lot of good to have a 100-year inventory and I don't know if I sleep for a while if I had a five year inventory, though so somewhere around there I know that there exact right number I really can't say, but I think that probably get you somewhere in the ballpark.
Evan Calio:
Great. In the pacing concept, does it -- do you think the sales utilized can match ability to redeploy capital obviously neutralizing for many kind of commodity change or is it just going to run its course with results and location count?
Dave Hager:
Well. We see this billion dollar divestment program is just giving us additional certainty with and we would do it anyway, because it's the right thing, because it's a right given the depth of our inventory. We also see that same time that commodity prices have weakened somewhat and so this gives us greater certainty around the fact that we are going to have the cash flow to execute on a very high return program in 2018. Now as we see in 2019 we're going to continue to ramp up activity and we again as we finish more of this appraisal work more of it gets de-risk the 2018 and the end of the game for us we see continuing to ramp up and capital and activity as we move forward beyond that this just going to continue to accelerate our growth and future years. And we will, if the all the appraisal work, works out as we anticipate it well I think that we would be looking at additional divestments depending on commodity prices to how strong those are but we're probably looking at additional investments to focus our capital even more.
Evan Calio:
Great, I appreciate it guys.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Matt Portillo with TPH. Please go ahead.
Matt Portillo:
Good morning, Dave, and team. Morning Just first question I wanted to follow up on comments around the upper Eagle Ford you made at the beginning with the successful commercial delineation just curious how that potentially impacts your view on inventory in the play and with the new diamond pattern that you're currently title piloting how much think about your core inventory over the next few years.
Dave Hager:
Matt, we're very pleased with the well results we saw with the acceleration of our ductwork into Q1. That data is being incorporated open to Devon and BHPs technical thoughts right now but the lower Eagle Ford staggered wells worked extremely well the Upper Eagle Ford wells that were incorporated in that plan worked very well. We're drilling Austin Chalk wells at this time so, I don't know the technical teams of come out with their plan I would just made somewhere between 500, and 1000 locations and going forward, the main thing to think about at this point is we've got two rigs operating right now on the plate and anticipate probably three in the second half of this year. Those will be utilized when the guys are have incorporated all these results into their thoughts.
Tony Vaughn:
And that really just another thought to that is that when you think about the Eagle Ford where well we do have some very high returning inventory in a multi-year basis that we can execute upon the transition of the Eagle Ford really is a free cash flow generator for our stack in Delaware Basin growth and I think that's how you need to perceive that asset with regard to the strategic fit in our portfolio of very high margin barrels, great results, but it's certainly we're going to harvest that cash flow and put it over the basin.
Matt Portillo:
Great. And then as follow-up just in regards to the PRV highlighted some fantastic Parkman wells here in the rates of return on a, on a well level basis are competitive with the Delaware in the stack just curious from a milestone perspective what we should be watching for over the next year or two in term opportunities to scale the PRB further in regards to production and capital allocation?
Dave Hager:
Our plans right now we're bringing in a second rig pretty quick so, we're encouraged by what we have we're starting to prosecute some of the new lands that we picked up this past year in the southern portion of our property and again it's going to be cash flow available to allocate between Delaware stack in the Rockies will these kind of the, the question that we evaluate quarter-to-quarter but we've got inventory and permits are coming we've got to get another good relationship there with the BLM office that is progressing. And we feel pretty good about uncertainty of execution in the powder as well as we did in the stack in the, in the Delaware.
Matt Portillo:
Great thank you very much.
Operator:
And our final question for today comes from the line of John [indiscernible]. Please go ahead.
Unidentified Analyst:
Yes, thank you. As you get these bigger drilling units, Dave -- Tony has discussed some of the efficiencies you're gaining the fact that vendors like long term visibility do you see a point where as these filling units are larger that you have such concentrated activity that you're willing to do multi-year deals or that the vendors would do multi-year deals and also would behoove you if they're not willing to do that to be perhaps more integrated?
Dave Hager:
Absolutely, John, and we have already done that on sand and we do see that is and I think Tony tried to allude to that that but that's one of the advantages that we see because this does provide certainty of activity and with us working directly with the sand mines for instance they like that because they really know then okay, we're dealing with counties is actually going to drill the well so, there is a much more certainty of demand in areas dealing with a service company who is relying on representations from a number of operators. And it's not a service company solve with a beta is not knowing it is detail whether those plans are going to be true or not where dealing directly with the Devon with a house standing reputation and following through on what we say we're going to do. We see that's an advantage and allows them to have confidence to enter into multiyear agreements with us.
Unidentified Analyst:
Okay, good. With respect to the Eagle Ford I just heard you know about the harvest mode essentially put the Delaware in the stack what if BHP wanted to exit would you be interested in that position or you would just consider again the Eagle Ford to be more of a cash flow source.
Dave Hager:
I don't know we have to I'd hate to say on any individual asset whether we would be interested or not instead. I think it is probably fair to say that we tend to like things where we see value gaps and a lot of times of value gaps of appear because of a perception of what the upside of an asset may be from one company to another. So, I think given the maturity of the asset there's probably not as much inventory there as or maybe in other areas where there could be value gaps. Newest prefer more undeveloped acres so, I don't think that's a big focus for us right now, but I'd never have you know I mean have to see how it evolves, but that's initial thoughts.
Unidentified Analyst:
Okay. Thank you very much, Dave.
Scott Coody:
I'm showing us at the top of the hour. So, I appreciate everyone's interest in Devon today. And if we didn't get your question, please don't hesitate to reach out to the Investor Relations team at any time, which consists of myself and Chris Carr. Have a good day.
Operator:
Thank you, everyone for attending. This will conclude today's conference call. You may now disconnect.
Executives:
Scott Coody - Devon Energy Corp. David A. Hager - Devon Energy Corp. Tony D. Vaughn - Devon Energy Corp.
Analysts:
Evan Calio - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC Doug Leggate - Bank of America Merrill Lynch Ryan Todd - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc. Arun Jayaram - JPMorgan Securities LLC Charles A. Meade - Johnson Rice & Co. LLC Paul Sankey - Wolfe Research LLC Matthew Merrel Portillo - Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, Inc. Scott Hanold - RBC Capital Markets LLC Biju Perincheril - Susquehanna Financial Group LLLP David Martin Heikkinen - Heikkinen Energy Advisors LLC
Operator:
Welcome to the Devon Energy's Fourth Quarter and Full-Year 2016 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. This call is being recorded. I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Scott Coody, Vice President, Investor Relations. Sir, you may begin.
Scott Coody - Devon Energy Corp.:
Thank you and good morning. I hope everyone has had the chance to review our fourth quarter and full-year 2016 financial and operational disclosures that were released last night. This data package includes
David A. Hager - Devon Energy Corp.:
Thank you, Scott, and welcome, everyone. For Devon, 2016 was a transformational year. We successfully reshaped our portfolio around top two franchise assets, the STACK and Delaware Basin, providing us a sustainable multi-decade growth platform. With these world-class assets, we delivered outstanding operational performance throughout the year. Our drilling programs generated the best well productivity results in Devon's 45-year history and we maximized the value of every barrel produced with cost reduction efforts that reached $1.3 billion of annual savings. We also took important steps during the year to strengthen our investment grade financial position with the timely completion of our $3.2 billion asset divestiture program. Overall, while 2016 will certainly be remembered for extreme volatility in the energy markets, our unwavering focus on the controllable aspects of our business yielded extremely strong results and we laid the groundwork for Devon to deliver differentiated growth in margins and cash flow expansion as commodity prices recover. As we look to 2017, the next step in our strategic plan is to accelerate investment across our U.S. resource plays, while maintaining our low-cost structure to maximize profitability. With an improving cash flow stream, we are planning to steadily ramp up drilling activity throughout the year to as many as 20 operated drilling rigs by the end of 2017, roughly doubling our rig count from year-end 2016. This ramp up in activity would represent an upstream investment of $2.0 billion to $2.3 billion for the full-year 2017. The majority of this capital will be concentrated on low-risk drilling activity in the STACK and Delaware Basin, and is expected to jumpstart companywide production growth, driving light oil production in the U.S. approximately 15% higher for the full-year 2017 compared to the fourth quarter of 2016. Additionally, we expect to deliver this attractive growth profile with substantially lower operating costs. In fact, lease operating expenses within our U.S. resource plays in 2017 are expected to be 30% lower than peak rates a few years ago, further bolstering the profitability of our top tier asset portfolio. Looking beyond the attractive growth profile Devon is going to deliver in 2017, we're even more excited about our outlook for 2018. Given the nature of pad drilling, the majority of the rig activity deployed in 2017 will provide an even-greater impact to production in 2018. Due to these timing considerations, there is significant operational momentum across our U.S. resource plays heading into 2018, which we project will advance light oil production by approximately 20% on a year-over-year basis. This rapid growth in our highest margin product, coupled or combined with our low-cost structure, positions Devon to deliver peer rating cash flow expansion in today's strip prices. Hopefully, you can sense my enthusiasm for the significant value we expect to generate with our capital programs in 2017 and 2018. Looking beyond 2018, Devon unquestionably has the quality and depth of resource within our asset portfolio to deliver high returning and sustainable growth for many years to come. Between STACK and Delaware Basin alone, which are two of the very best positioned plays on the North American cost curve, we have exposure to more than 1 million net acres of stacked pay potential. Across these world-class acreage positions, we have identified in excess of 30,000 potential drilling locations, of which, approximately one-third have already been de-risked through successful appraisal work. To further advance our understanding into the ultimate inventory and resource potential within Devon, we have several catalyst-rich projects underway in 2017. In the STACK, we're participating in several Meramec infill pilots can further expand our risked inventory beyond the 40% increase we announced today. These pilots will also help refine our initial multi-zone development in 2017. This milestone development called the Showboat project, is evaluating around 15 wells, a single drilling unit, across three landing zones. Ultimately, we believe we could have spacing as high as 20 to 30 wells in a single drilling unit when co-developing the Meramec and Woodford together. Moving to the Woodford, I'd encourage everyone not to lose sight of this under-appreciated play within the STACK. With a massive Hobson and Jacobs Row developments, we expect a step change in efficiency through improved completion and longer laterals that could deliver returns rivaling that of a Meramec formation. In fact, early flow back results from our operating position of the Hobson Row look outstanding with initial well results tracking at, or above, our EUR type curve of 1.6 million BOE per well. Additionally, gross peak production from the Hobson Row are well on their way to exceeding 40,000 BOE per day in the second quarter of this year. 2017 will also be an important year for our Leonard and Wolfcamp programs in the Delaware Basin, with nearly 60% of our drilling programs in the area devoted toward characterizing these emerging oil plays. We expect the activity to have a material impact to Devon's companywide resource potential and we are eager to progress our understanding of the 12,000-plus potential locations we have identified between these two plays. Looking beyond this Delaware and STACK, we're nearing an initial flow black of our diamond spacing in the Eagle Ford, which could expand our high return inventory into play. In the Rockies, rig activity underway is de-risking the Powder River Basin oil fairway, and the technical teams in the Barnett are experimenting with game-changing horizontal refrac technology. As you can see, there are many significant projects ongoing that will help us further characterize the full resource potential we possess across our resource plays. With continued appraisals of success, these catalyst-rich drilling efforts in 2017 will further supplement our great collection of assets that are well balanced between scalable growth plays and top-tier cash flow generating properties. This advantaged asset base provides tremendous optionality going forward. And lastly, I want to be very clear on this. While having a premier portfolio is essential to winning in the E&P space, developing these assets through superior execution is equally important. Over the past few years, we have done a tremendous amount of work here at Devon to reshape our corporate culture and made a commitment to invest in leading-edge technology to establish a competitive edge. Through this pursuit of excellence, we have substantially reduced drilling times, we have maximized value per well with industry-leading completion designs, and we've optimized our base production with best-in-class field operations. Notably, these efforts have not only lowered costs across the board but they have dramatically increased Devon's well productivity by greater than 300% since 2012. This quality work firmly places us among the very best operators in North America. However, we are not satisfied with our recent accomplishments, and the teams here at Devon are passionately pursuing to improve all aspects of our business in 2017. With the drill bit, I absolutely expect capital efficiency and well productivity will continue to ratchet higher as we shift a majority of our drilling activity toward extended-reach laterals in the STACK and Delaware Basin. Additionally, we are aggressively taking steps to offset industry inflation by decoupling historically bundled services, and we're utilizing a much more diversified vendor universe to achieve the best value for our LOE and capital dollars. We are also adding long-term service contracts, where prudent, to better capture terms at the bottom of the cycle. Another area of our business that has the potential to meaningfully improve our operating performance is the application of innovative technologies in the realm of Big Data, where we view ourselves as leaders in the E&P space. We are at the forefront of these emerging technology trends that will help us continue to deliver improved results through predictive analytics and the deployment of artificial intelligence in our field operation. We are just scratching the surface with regards to the potential of our advanced analytics initiatives, which we believe have the potential to unlock hundreds of millions of dollars of value annually. We expect the application of these technologies to not only to contribute to better well productivity, but also to help us further optimize our operating costs and keep overhead expense lower through more efficient data systems and workflow across our organization. So in summary, the future is very bright for Devon. We have the right assets, the right technical staff, the right culture, and our business is backstopped by an investment grade financial position. As we execute on our strategic plan, Devon shares are positioned to deliver peer-leading returns through our rapid shift to higher-margin production, substantial cash flow growth, and a re-rating of our trading multiples better reflects our premium assets and operatorship. With that, I'll turn the call back to Scott.
Scott Coody - Devon Energy Corp.:
Thanks, Dave. We will now open the call to Q&A. Please limit yourself to one question and a follow-up. If you have further questions, you can re-prompt as time permits. With that, operator, we'll take our first question.
Operator:
Your first question comes from Evan Calio from Morgan Stanley. Your line is open.
Evan Calio - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
Hey. Good morning, guys.
David A. Hager - Devon Energy Corp.:
Good morning.
Evan Calio - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
So you guys – you added significant locations in the Meramec and you have a large location upside in the Delaware where you're ramping up activity most this year. I guess the question is, is how do you think about the portfolio impact if your location count continues to grow? And do you have enough confidence in the current direction to trigger another round of asset sales in 2017?
David A. Hager - Devon Energy Corp.:
Well, we obviously are working our way through the appraisal of a number of different zones, as you highlight, both in the STACK play and the Delaware Basin. And the results so far have been very, very encouraging that we've seen with not only the number of zones that are working in both of these plays as well as the potential or down spacing in both of these plays. So we think we have the – we're positioned in a couple of the best basins in onshore North America, and we have some of the best position in those best basins. So we feel really good about that. We do want to further our understanding before we make any strategic decisions such as that. We're also working some of these other areas that may be consideration and we're improving the results in those areas at the same time. We're going to have – for instance in the Barnett, we're going to have a refrac program that is at a substantially lower cost than we've done previously that could really be a game-changer in terms of the returns on that program. We're also going to drill some new wells with modern drilling and completion technology that hasn't been done for several years. So we want to see all of this work come together as far as finalizing or getting more data as far as how big our inventory really is in these top-tier resource plays and in doing some work in some of these other plays to really understand the full potential of these plays before making any sort of strategic decision. Now, I'll say, if you go back over the past few years, we haven't been – if you look at us as a company, we haven't been hesitant to make the right decision at the right time as far as optimizing our portfolio. We think it's really important to, if we ever do make a decision this way, that we have the best information available when we do that.
Evan Calio - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
Maybe a follow up on the delineation side. I mean, you have two rigs in Woodward and Dewey counties, they're outside the core of the play, can you discuss what your testing there? What zones? And potentially what that could de-risk for you?
David A. Hager - Devon Energy Corp.:
I'm going to let Tony Vaughn, our Chief Operating Officer, answer that question for you.
Tony D. Vaughn - Devon Energy Corp.:
Evan, we've got – I think we've commented before but we have about 80,000 acres outside the core of our footprint in STACK. You probably have read some of the competitors are testing for the Osage and the Meramec and we're continuing to work some prospectivity in those areas, trying to gain an understanding of really where the play moves.
Evan Calio - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
Any idea on timing there in terms of when we might have some results there?
Tony D. Vaughn - Devon Energy Corp.:
We're engaged in some operations right now, both on the drilling and the completions side of it. So it'd probably be the second half of 2017 before we have a better understanding about our thoughts there.
Evan Calio - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
Great. Good results, guys.
Operator:
The next question comes from Doug Leggate from Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Your line is open.
Doug Leggate - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Well, thanks. Good morning, everybody.
David A. Hager - Devon Energy Corp.:
Good morning, Doug.
Doug Leggate - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Hopefully you can hear me okay.
David A. Hager - Devon Energy Corp.:
Yes.
Doug Leggate - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Dave, can you just remind us what is the spacing assumption, I guess wells for DSU, that you're assuming in the 1,600 locations in the Meramec. And what's behind my question is, 20 to 30, it seems like quite a big step-up, and I'm just wondering if you could help frame for us if that's across the entire play or just the over pressured area or just how you're thinking about how that 1,600 locations has – what the upside risk is for that?
David A. Hager - Devon Energy Corp.:
All right. Doug, thanks for the question. In summary, we see tremendous potential for that continuing to increase through time. Right now we average six wells per section across the entire position in that number. As we – and it is a much higher number, probably around 13 wells per production, and obviously, the average six is much lower outside the core and we've essentially put none of the locations we've counted within the liquids-rich part of the window, where we are participating along with some of our peer companies and the drilling activity there as well. So we see that there is tremendous upside to this as we further appraise the entire area. So we're just getting started.
Doug Leggate - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
All right. I appreciate that. I guess I'm going to ask you about the portfolio as well, if I may, because let's assume you have a tripling or a quadrupling of the inventory in the STACK, I think Tony has said in the past that your Delaware Basin slope or your Delaware slope acreage probably wouldn't compete for capital; your Barnett production or assets probably struggles to compete for capital, so what do you need to see to – or whether or not you can actually confirm that is the case that those are maybe non-core assets, and what do you need to see to maybe start thinking about moving those forward as another assets disposition program ? And I will it leave it there. Thanks.
David A. Hager - Devon Energy Corp.:
Well, again, we are looking to further quantify just how rich our inventory is. We know it's rich, but we would like to get more information on the spacing in the various intervals that we're testing both in the STACK play and the Delaware Basin. Also, and just how many of these different intervals are working. So we would like to further detail that to know for sure. It has certainly been true historically that the slope in the Delaware Basin does not appear to compete as well. Although I will note there've been some pretty big purchases their recently by some other companies. But I think historically it has not competed as well. And the Barnett, although you can get returns well above the cost of capital, have not competed in our portfolio. But again, we are currently testing some innovations in the refrac technology side to significantly lower that cost, and we're trying some new wells out there with modern drilling and completion. So we would like to understand that potential before, both in terms of just how deep our inventory is, and also what is the real upside better from these other plays before we make a final decision. We understand the question very well. It's not lost on us. We understand, and like I say, we have not hesitated historically when the time is right to make these strategic decisions. But that's what we're working through before we make a decision.
Doug Leggate - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Very clear, Dave. Thanks very much.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Ryan Todd from Deutsche Bank. Your line is open.
Ryan Todd - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Great. Thanks. Maybe a question on the – the first question on the type curve in the STACK. I mean, at this point, you've only provided one that's been for a 5,000 foot well. Any color on how we should think about the reserves from the 10,000 foot longer laterals that you're drilling now? And 30 day rates? Should we extrapolate in terms of kind of reserves for lateral foot from the 5,000 foot wells? And what's the average well cost at this point are you expecting from a 10,000-foot lateral?
Scott Coody - Devon Energy Corp.:
Hey, Ryan, this is Scott. And, last quarter, we did roll out our first extended-reach type-curve for what we considered the overpressured oil window within the STACK and the EURs on that are approaching 2 million barrels per well on an equivalent basis. And depending upon the strength of the casing, whether it's two or three, the cost of the – D&C cost can range from $7.5 million to $9 million. And from an IP rate perspective, these are pretty prolific wells as well; it's well north of 2,000 barrels equivalent per day on a 30-day rate. So that's our initial type curve. And I think Tony can talk about maybe what we're seeing at the early results on that and how it's trending.
Tony D. Vaughn - Devon Energy Corp.:
Yeah. Thanks. Scott did a good job of characterizing the type-curve there for the 10,000-foot wells. And the producing history that we've had on those is really exhibiting better performance over time than even the 5,000-foot laterals. So there is additional upside in our type-curve, I believe. We need more information to look at that, but we're quite pleased with the 10,000-foot wells over the 5000-foot wells and we'll certainly try to maximize every opportunity we can to drill those 10,000 footers.
Ryan Todd - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
And on the longer laterals, is there room – I appreciated the incremental shift towards 65% of the inventory of 1,700 wells in the STACK being the longer lateral. Is there room for that to shift higher at this point? Or how should we expect your ability to drill longer laterals to trend over the next little while?
David A. Hager - Devon Energy Corp.:
Yeah, Ryan, I think that's what our technical teams do every day. I think they're looking for opportunities to core up either through small-scale land acquisitions or trades and also, looking to work with other operators there. We've got a great relationship with the other primary operators in STACK trying to maximize the efficiency of each of our operations, and so that's working quite well. And I think the positions are largely made between the large operators. So there is potential for that to continually inch its way up.
Ryan Todd - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Thanks. And then maybe if I can ask one on your view on costs. I mean, what did your 2017 capital budget assume in terms of well costs relative to constant 2016? How much inflation do you assume? What are you seeing today? And any expectations on what you expect over the course of 2017 and maybe into 2018 in terms of the cost structure?
David A. Hager - Devon Energy Corp.:
When we were out a few months ago talking about that, we said we expected high-single digit inflation across all aspects of the business. We have revised that upwards a little bit now, we're saying now in the 10% to 15% across all aspects of the business. And so if you look at our – and we have accounted for that in the capital guidance that we provided to you. We were originally talking about a capital program around $2 billion, a couple, three months ago. It's been now at a $2 billion to $2.3 billion. We probably upped the midpoint about $150 million of that. About $100 million of that is due to just moving up the timing of some rig activity, particularly in the Delaware Basin. And about the other $50 million or so is due to additional cost inflation. Now at the same time, we think we can largely mitigate about 75% of this cost inflation that we anticipate to see this year. And you're seeing examples of us across our portfolio where we're lowering the drill times associated with these wells. Our 24/7 365 drilling control room is really helping out a great deal with the efficiency, and nearly 100% in zone on these wells. So yes, it does appear the inflation has picked up somewhat from a few months ago, but we think we can largely offset that.
Ryan Todd - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Great. Thanks. Very helpful.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Arun Jayaram of JPMorgan. Your line is open.
Arun Jayaram - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Yeah, good morning. My first question just involves your CapEx program from this year of $2.5 billion at the midpoint, which is kind of below your upstream cash flow potential that you highlight on page six of the ops report of $2.7 billion. So I just wanted to get your thoughts on spending a little bit below cash flow and the strategy behind that and maybe some thoughts around 2018. You highlighted $3.5 billion of upstream cash flow potential. What does that 20%-type growth number for U.S. light oil, what does that embed in terms of CapEx next year?
David A. Hager - Devon Energy Corp.:
Well – hi, Arun. This is Dave. First off, from a corporate standpoint, given the strength of our balance sheet and our financial strength, we are comfortable right now spending approximately at cash flow in any given year. We want to stay a strong investment-grade credit company. And we believe with our net debt position at this point that the spending within cash flow is approximately where we should be. Now, we recognize, depending on whose price deck you use that there may be the potential to – that we may have a little bit of free cash flow this year. I think frankly, there probably you would have to subtract off the dividend off the numbers in our book there, and then you'd probably see we're really at cash flow neutral. But if there is the potential where we have a little bit stronger cash flow than we anticipate, we certainly have the program and we are very confident we can deliver on good returns on that program for a little bit higher capital spend. So that we are not doing – not announcing we're doing that, obviously, right now but that potential is there. We have some of the highest, best positions in onshore North America, and we have focused on delivering outstanding returns on that. And we could ratchet up to some degree our capital spending and be confident that we could maintain those returns. As far as the 2017 – or excuse me – the 2018 capital program, basically, what we're – we're not going to give you specific numbers there, but do feel comfortable stating that we're roughly planning to once again spend within cash flow and deliver on our growth targets that we've outlined there.
Arun Jayaram - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
That's helpful.
David A. Hager - Devon Energy Corp.:
Another thing to keep in mind on that, the 2018 capital spend really has a bigger impact on 2019 production than it does 2018 production. Really, the bulk of the 2018 production given the time delay between when you spend the money and you just have first production is largely determined by the 2017 capital spend.
Arun Jayaram - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
That's great. I guess my follow-up is I wanted to go back to a comment that you all put in the press release just talking about Canada and the tremendous upside exists within your Canadian resource potential. You highlighted $1.4 billion of resource potential there. Wanted to see – obviously, a lot around Canada recently with the market concern around border taxes. How are you thinking about an investment decision at Pike? And given the resource potential that you have in the Delaware as well as the STACK and elsewhere in the Lower 48 portfolio, I was wondering how you guys were thinking about Pike, obviously that's with BP?
David A. Hager - Devon Energy Corp.:
Well, that's a decision that we will visit the second half of 2017. We are very confident that Pike is going to be like Jackfish in the sense that it's going to be a top 10% type project in the SAGD. Geologically, it looks just as good if not better than a Jackfish project. And obviously, we've have shown the ability to execute on the construction side at Jackfish as well as anybody and we have the graphs in our operations report that just show the efficiency with which we're able to manage that production too in terms of steam-oil-ratios and it also goes back as well to just the quality of other reservoir. So we like the project a great deal. Now, obviously, the question is not what prices are going to be in 2017, but what we anticipate prices will be when first production happens, which would probably be around 2021 or so. And so we are hoping to get some greater clarity on that question. There are other variables that, obviously, factor into it beyond price and also just the capital costs. We do not necessarily see the proposed border adjustment tax as a negative to Canadian prices. We do see where it could be a positive overall for our portfolio and that the bulk of our oil is in the U.S. and we think it would cause WTI prices to go up. It may cause the differentials to increase a little bit, but not necessarily lower the prices coming out of Canada, because that heavy oil is needed by the refineries here in the U.S. That's what they're tooled to handle. And with the decrease in Mayan crude, particularly too, we think that the draw on Canadian crude will still be there largely. So we don't see that as a negative on our Canadian operations at all. You might even benefit from a positive FX as well, impact to it. So we'll visit that question in the second half of the year. We like the project a lot but, obviously, it does take a – it's a little bit lower return in our well-oriented programs here in the U.S., but the way I'd like to describe is more the bond in our portfolio. It's a lower risk. We know how do it and generate good returns with it. So we'll make a call along with our partner, BP, later on in the year on this.
Arun Jayaram - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Okay. Thanks a lot.
Operator:
The next question comes from Charles Meade with Johnson Rice. Your line is open.
Charles A. Meade - Johnson Rice & Co. LLC:
Good morning, Dave, and to the rest of your team there.
David A. Hager - Devon Energy Corp.:
Good morning, Charles.
Charles A. Meade - Johnson Rice & Co. LLC:
I'd like to ask a question about the Delaware Basin. And I know we spent a lot of time talking about what you guys are doing up there, in Lea and Eddy counties, but you've got this other center of gravity down there along the Reeves and Ward line, along the Pecos River. And I'm sure it hasn't escaped your attention that there has been a lot of A&D activity down there. And I'm wondering if you could just talk a little bit about what the nature of your position down there is and how testing your development on that position slots into your drilling plans for this year and beyond?
David A. Hager - Devon Energy Corp.:
Tony is dying to tell you about it, Charles. That's why we call our Maveda (32:25) area down there. And so, I'm going to let Tony talk about it a while.
Tony D. Vaughn - Devon Energy Corp.:
Charles, you're right. There is a lot of A&D work down there. A lot of extremely high price per acre transactions have occurred. We've watched that. We've also spent a good bit of a subsurface evaluation time on our position looking at the results from our competitors there. So we think we're in the right country for good return work. We've got activity planned for the latter part of 2017. And again, as we manage our investment in the Delaware Basin, we've tried to highlight the primary areas that we'll be working there in our operating reports. So while we'll be drilling about 100 wells, the majority of those will be in those four areas there in southeastern Mexico. But we are working on some appraisal-type work in the Maveda (33:23) area and certainly watching a lot of activity around us that are helping us de-risk that. So it's a good play, as you mentioned, and something we'll incorporate into our development plans.
Charles A. Meade - Johnson Rice & Co. LLC:
That's great detail, Tony. Thank you. And, Dave, for my follow-up, I'd like to pick up on something you said in your prepared remarks. You talked about Devon being a leader in Big Data. To the extent you're comfortable, can you tell us where in your operations you're using Big Data that's yielding good results? And what makes you a leader? And what sort of things should we look for going forward from your efforts on this front?
David A. Hager - Devon Energy Corp.:
Tony would like to do this one also.
Tony D. Vaughn - Devon Energy Corp.:
Charles, thanks for the question. And it's probably about three years ago, we made a large commitment internally to be more fact-based and data-driven in our day-to-day work. We spent quite a bit of time in that, we brought in and incorporated some people from outside the industry to help us get through that work. So collectively, it's been a big effort. So as we've taken the information or that data collection and we talk about all the different types of subsurface data that we're acquiring, also that has been included in our surface work. So we stood up some decision-support centers was the first thing that we did, just monitoring all of our producing assets from around the company. Minimizing downtime, trying to maximize the production rate from that, but it really has greatly expanded from that. So while we're acquiring a lot of this information, we've found ways now to get that information in the hands of our technical teams, more real-time than we have in the past. And so the data reporting has elevated us to a new level here internally. We're incorporating that into all phases of our business. And some different areas that we're working on it, as you mentioned, was on a artificial lift reliability. So now we're watching daily information – more than daily information on all of our submersible pumps and gas lift injection rates across the company and are able to better predict the reliability of those pumps. We're able to better schedule maintenance on those pumps so we have limited downtime. We're also incorporating this data into our well flow-back type work. We're able to monitor our rates and pressures and really get the wells off of the well flow back environment quicker. That happens to save about $50,000 per well. We've incorporated this data into our coal-tipping drill outs and the completion phase of our work. And so while we're seeing this pressure and rate information on that portion of our business, it's also accelerating our coal-tipping drill outs to the point of saving about $100,000 per well. And then we're also incorporating this into our drilling business now, so we're using it to help geosteer wells and position our drill bit and using that data really to do it in a quicker, more efficient manner than we can, with just standing up additional personnel to watch that on a day-by-day basis. So Charles, we've talked to you a little bit about the WellCon center in the past and at one time, we probably had 30 to 40 people working in that WellCon, and now it's under 10 people still managing the same type of work, perhaps looking at more information than we have in the past and making real-time decisions. It's really just causing things like our Delaware Basin wells we're getting from spud to TD in about 10 days now. And probably about a year ago at the time that we were more active there, that was about 17 or 18 days. So this is just a way that has tuned up our business in small increments across the company.
Charles A. Meade - Johnson Rice & Co. LLC:
Thanks for the detail, Tony.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Paul Sankey from Wolfe Research. Your line is open.
Paul Sankey - Wolfe Research LLC:
Good morning, all. In terms of all your various choices, could you talk a little bit at a high level about the marginal decision between natural gas and oil? It just seems that the prices are so far apart of the two commodities. But I'd like to know more about your sort of thinking in terms of what kind of returns you need? What kind of risk you put on either kind of activity? Thank you.
David A. Hager - Devon Energy Corp.:
Paul, I'm not sure exactly where you're going with that, but what I would say is that we obviously are driven by returns in all of our capital allocation decisions. And those returns are largely driven by the – what the anticipated prices are for both oil and natural gas. Given right now the relative strength of oil compared to natural gas, that does mean that the bulk of our capital program is going to those plays that have a higher proportion of oil versus our dry gas type opportunities. We still have some of those in the portfolio, and the Barnett would be the big one and some areas even in a deeper part of Cana for instance, that we're – not have a lot of activity going. So that will drive our capital allocation decisions; they were just our belief in what the relative strength of the commodities will be. And obviously, that not only does it from our capital allocation, but we take that into account when we are making strategic decisions as to where we think the portfolio should be positioned.
Paul Sankey - Wolfe Research LLC:
Yeah, I mean, I guess it's a fairly simple question but it was really the Barnett that I was thinking of and how come there would be any kind of investment? I mean, how good do the returns have to be given the price discrepancy between the two commodities? And is it sort of a maintenance activity with distributor CapEx going there, or is there genuine – I mean you said that you pursue return, so I just wondered quite how you could get there. It must be...
David A. Hager - Devon Energy Corp.:
Well, we're spending money there not to maintain production. We are 100% dedicated to putting our capital where we believe the highest returns are. In the case of the Barnett – and Tony can detail it, we are spending a little bit of capital there this year, not a large amount because we are investigating the – how well a new re-frac design, which may be around $700,000 versus previously is around $1 million to $1.2 million cost to re-frac those wells – how well that is going to work. And if that is successful, it could have returns that are very competitive within our portfolio. There is also the potential that with a modern drilling and completion design that you could also have returns that are competitive within our portfolio. Remember, we haven't had an active drilling program there for several years and there has been tremendous advancements on both the drilling and completion side since then. So we aren't putting a lot of capital into that, but the only reason we are is because we believe that that could lead to a program that could be competitive within our portfolio or anybody else's portfolio if we choose to make a strategic decision around that.
Paul Sankey - Wolfe Research LLC:
Yeah, I think that's what I was driving at. It's just interesting that there's any kind of activity there. And I guess it's a bit bearish for natural gas that there is. Just the second question would be on the Delaware. Can you talk more about the nature of your activity there? Is it primarily an appraisal-type activity or is it in the exploration realm? Thanks.
Tony D. Vaughn - Devon Energy Corp.:
Paul, it's really not in the exploration nor the appraisal. We're doing a little bit of appraisal work across our position, but for the most part, we're moving into developments in 2017. And so you will see on the operating report on the Delaware section there, the four core areas that we're working. We've already got three rigs stood up right now working the Thistle area. That's going to be predominantly a Leonard Shale development. We've announced in December that we had a couple of good wells stacked on top of each other in the B and the C, and we've seen industry work in the A. So we think we have a very hearty development plan there for the Thistle area. And Cotton Draw has been an area that we've had a – the majority of our historic second Bone Spring work. And again, we'll have rigs working there through the year, developing additional Bone Springs, Delaware, Leonard and some Wolfcamp-type activity. And in the Rattlesnake in the southeastern portion of our position there, we'll actually be standing up work there in the second half of the year, prosecuting the Leonard Shale but primarily the Wolfcamp. And we've seen some really outstanding results from some operators adjacent to our footprint there in Rattlesnake that have had some stellar wells. So we're really trying to move our Delaware and STACK into the development mode as quick as we can. We continue to do some amount of appraisal work year-in year-out just to prepare for the next year's developments.
Paul Sankey - Wolfe Research LLC:
Great...
Scott Coody - Devon Energy Corp.:
Hey. And Paul, real quick. This is Scott. Just to add on a little bit at the end of that, just to provide a percentage, about three-quarters of our activity is going to be development drilling. And that's one of the reasons why we're so confident with our production outlook with the Delaware Basin. If you look in our operations report, you're going to see greater than 20% growth from Q4 to Q4 on a 2017 to 2016 basis. And obviously, we expect to stabilize production in the first quarter. And even more important, I think, is just how excited we are about the momentum that carries into 2018. So this is absolutely going to be a strong growth asset with some of the best returns in North America.
Paul Sankey - Wolfe Research LLC:
Great and thank you for your help.
Operator:
The next question comes from Matt Portillo from TPH. Your line is open.
Matthew Merrel Portillo - Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, Inc.:
Good morning, guys.
David A. Hager - Devon Energy Corp.:
Good morning, Matt.
Matthew Merrel Portillo - Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, Inc.:
Just a quick question on the Jacobs Row. Wanted to see if we could get a little bit of color around how you're thinking about the hydrocarbon mix, obviously Hobson's gotten into an oilier section from a development perspective and Jacobs offsets that. And then I wanted to see if we could get any high-level color in regards to timing of, kind of, rig allocation there and when we may start to see first production from that very large development.
Tony D. Vaughn - Devon Energy Corp.:
Matt, this is Tony again. And just let me start a little bit with the work that we're doing on the Hobson Row and then I'll move into that Jacobs Row there. But we're about halfway through that five-section position that we have in the Hobson Row. And Dave's opening comments, he commented the results we're having there are outstanding and we're on track with that development. What's unique about the Hobson Row, the reason why I wanted to bring this up is that if you start – as you start on the west side of that five-section footprint there, you've got fairly leaner fluid type that we're producing, but as you move through the – quickly move into the heart of those five sections, we have a higher oil content there. And so we've commented that we're seeing 25%-plus oil content. As you move to the far eastern side of that footprint, we expect it to be even higher there. So while we don't have everything completely delineated on the Jacobs Row, I think it's going to be in that higher oily mix, at least to 25% going forward. When we think about the timing of bringing in rigs for the Jacobs Row, we're in the midst of our plans right now. We think that will be the second half of 2017. You can see there that it's a larger development in the Hobson Row. We're going to incorporate the number of rigs and frac crews to timely get through that so we're maximizing the present value of that operation.
Matthew Merrel Portillo - Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, Inc.:
Great. And then just a follow up to Canada. We've continued to see improvements on the operating side in regards to Jackfish. I was curious if there is any other de-bottlenecking opportunities for expansion on the production side. And then a follow on to the comments on Pike. If we think about, kind of, 2018 and 2019, if you were to move forward with potentially sanctioning, what sort of call on capital could we expect, ballpark, around the project?
Tony D. Vaughn - Devon Energy Corp.:
Matt, I'd tell you, I've got to complement our operating team in Canada right now. They are extremely efficient, they have de-bottlenecked J1, J2 and J3 to the point we're seeing daily production rates, 10,000 barrels, 12,000 barrels per day above nameplate capacity. And that's a function of de-bottlenecking on the surface, but it's also – it's a function of their clear understanding of how to optimize steam injection into that high quality rock. So we're rocking along at a pretty high rate in our minds. We've got some fairly new pads that have been brought on in the latter part of 2016 that has really helped move that production rate up. We're starting to work on another pad that will have some rate benefit in early 2018. But they're doing an excellent job on the Jackfish operating of those plants there. As you think about Pike going forward, it's really a fairly minor capital draw on the company. As you think about that, we're 50/50 with BP. We staggered the capital profile out so, just to give you order of magnitude, if we were to sanction later this year, in 2018, that draw would be about $50 million net and would go to about $150 million for the next couple of years. Dave mentioned, we'll get the first team about 2021. So in the grand scheme of things, it's really about 5% of the company capital as you look out in time. So it's really not that significant.
Matthew Merrel Portillo - Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, Inc.:
Thank you very much.
Operator:
The next question comes from Scott Hanold from RBC Capital Markets. Your line is open.
Scott Hanold - RBC Capital Markets LLC:
Thanks. Good morning. Dave, I hope I won't wear you down again with another, kind of, portfolio kind of question, but when you step back and look, obviously, you talk about the potential of 20,000-plus wells in the Delaware, you're drilling about 100 this year. So certainly it seems like at the current pace, the value potential is not being maximized. But as you step back and understand how industries have been fairly aggressive of buying acreage in the Delaware Basin at what looks like pretty, pretty good prices. And it seems like your desire to maybe want to maximize the value by finding out first what you have and what new technology will show you on those assets. How do you balance the two? And when you look at it, is it more about understanding the potential before you look to monetize it? Or is there a consideration, we may just keep this and decide to outspend cash flow to monetize it ourselves. Can you just give us a sense of the high-level perspective?
David A. Hager - Devon Energy Corp.:
Well, I'm not going to announce anything today, so I'm not sure I can really answer that question fully. But I would say we're working both sides to really understand what the potential is in a more complete manner in our core plays both in the STACK and the Delaware Basin, as well as trying to make sure we understand the true value of other assets that may be considered for monetization. You never have complete knowledge. We understand that. There is not a set point in time where you fully understand, and you would make this call. But it's our judgment right now that we would like to learn more rather than make that decision today. But again, it's not lost on us that there is at some point that call will have to be made, one way or the other. And we certainly, as I keep saying it, have not shown any reluctance to do that historically when we think the time is right to do that. We fully understand the values that are being paid in the Delaware Basin. We understand all the variables. I don't need to iterate or lay them all out on the table here I don't think. But we just feel that it would be helpful to have some increased knowledge at this point of the continued appraisal in both the STACK and the Delaware Basin before we make that final call.
Scott Hanold - RBC Capital Markets LLC:
Okay. No, I appreciate that. And, Dave, just to clarify. So is the likelihood more or less that if the timing is right, the price is right you'd monetize versus look to outspend to bring forth the value?
David A. Hager - Devon Energy Corp.:
I would say it has probably, on balance, probably the more likely scenario, that we would go that direction, yes, I would agree with that.
Scott Hanold - RBC Capital Markets LLC:
Okay. No, fair enough. Thanks. And as a follow up, could you clarify too on your identified inventory in the Permian, how much of that is roughly in the slope versus in the basin? And down in the Nevada area, if you could just clarify what the size of that position is?
Scott Coody - Devon Energy Corp.:
Yeah. Scott, this is Scott. With regards to the inventory, probably two-thirds is going to be in the basin, which we consider is superior returns to the slope. And as far as the acreage, you're probably looking 55% of our acreage from a surface perspective is going to be located in the basin as well. So we're certainly levered to the basin.
Scott Hanold - RBC Capital Markets LLC:
Thanks.
Operator:
The next question comes from Biju Perincheril from Susquehanna. Your line is open.
Biju Perincheril - Susquehanna Financial Group LLLP:
Thanks. Good morning. Dave, you talked about two Bone Spring wells in the operations report, and I was wondering, are those wells targeted in similar landing zones as what you've been targeting there? Or would this be something different?
Scott Coody - Devon Energy Corp.:
And, Biju, your question, you broke up a little bit. Your question is what landing zones for the Bone Spring in those particular wells? And I will hand it over to Tony. But essentially those are in two very different areas than where we've drilled historically. It was the Thistle area, obviously was one of those areas where we drilled the Bone Spring and I believe it's the Todd area is where we drilled our other Bone Spring. And, Tony, feel free to jump in, but obviously I believe it's a second Bone Spring is what the Todd area would be targeting. And when you think about the Thistle, that might be a more shallow member of the Bone Spring.
Tony D. Vaughn - Devon Energy Corp.:
Yeah, the Thistle is going to be really dominated by the Leonard development there, but we do have about half a dozen wells in the second Bone that's going to be drilled, but in the Todd area that's going to be largely dominated by the second Bone Springs, a little bit of Leonard and Wolfcamp activity there. We also know that we had the Upper Bone Springs second Bone Spring's member available to us in Cotton Draw and the Todd area that we'll be incorporating into our developments.
Scott Coody - Devon Energy Corp.:
But, Biju, just to provide a more global thought when you think about our overarching inventory and the play for the Bone Spring, we have inventory across the first, second and third members of the Bone Springs. So – and it just depends on where you're at within the basin. It can be very localized. But certainly, we're more heavily levered towards that second Bone Spring opportunity, which we believe delivers the best returns.
Biju Perincheril - Susquehanna Financial Group LLLP:
Okay. And then my second question is in the Meramec, when I look at the Alma pilot versus the Pump House, the middle well in Pump House is performing right in line with the outer wells. Maybe you see it's a little bit lower performance on the bounded wells in the Alma, which I guess is what you would expect normally. Just wondering, that difference in the two, the two pilots is – how do you explain that? Is that geologies or anything that you did in terms of landing zones or completions that would explain the better performance out of the Pump House pilot?
Tony D. Vaughn - Devon Energy Corp.:
Biju, we were actually happy with the results out of the Pump House pilot. I think that was helpful for us to understand the lateral spacing that we had there. But the Alma was also – was helpful in understanding what it was. We just – we didn't see the communication between the five-well pilot that we pumped in the Alma, and so we've been pleased with the work that we're seeing in both of those. I'd say the repeatability across our footprint there, primarily in the core of the play, has been extremely high. We're continuing to see better performance in the optimization. In fact, if you looked at some of our year-end reserve work, we're able to add a substantial amount of general revisions due to increased performance from a lot of these new STACK plays in comparison to the original type curves. So we've been pleased with all the pilots. They've been very informative to us. We haven't seen a real train wreck out there and we think the play, at least in the area that the industry has been working, is very repeatable.
Scott Coody - Devon Energy Corp.:
And, Biju, just one thing to add on with that and it's really kind – we've been asked a lot about the upside with the STACK play. And one of the – one example that's lost on a lot of people but not you would be that with that – with the offsetting well actually not showing degradation, and a lot of that comes down to landing zone. We're still optimizing landing zones in this early-stage play. So as we continue to better understand landing zones and we extend these laterals out further, that's where we expect well productivity and capital efficiency to continue to ratchet up in this play.
Biju Perincheril - Susquehanna Financial Group LLLP:
All right. That's helpful. Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from David Heikkinen from Heikkinen Energy. Your line in open.
David Martin Heikkinen - Heikkinen Energy Advisors LLC:
Good morning, guys, and thanks for taking the question. As I was looking at the Hobson chart in your forecast and your comments about where you were as far as timing into that, I had a couple of questions just as you think about that forecast. First, did that include the 40% of the wells that are above the curve, or is this your forecast before you started bring the wells online?
Tony D. Vaughn - Devon Energy Corp.:
Well, the forecast is based on our type curve, David.
David Martin Heikkinen - Heikkinen Energy Advisors LLC:
So your above the type curve. And so can you – what would be great, I guess as you get into second quarter and third quarter is to overlay the actuals because it looks like that would track above that forecast, just given your bullet number two in that section about the request.
Tony D. Vaughn - Devon Energy Corp.:
Yeah, I think we'll be happy to, David. I tell you when you look at the results we're seeing, it's extremely early. The results have been above type curve and their wells are cleaning up. But if you remember, we're about – we're probably about halfway through on a real-time basis on these – on the completion of these wells. And so the flow-back is pretty early.
David Martin Heikkinen - Heikkinen Energy Advisors LLC:
Yeah. No, that's cool. And then, Dave, maybe – I'm a little confused around some of the questions on the call of selling parts of your core assets in the Delaware or the monetization as you're in kind of the early phase of appraisal. I guess I'd assume that you guys are still in the mode of delineating and trying to determine what your potential is and that a sale of any of those assets would be not even a consideration yet. And so did I miss something in kind of where investor expectations were, because it's kind of confusing (58:49) that direction.
David A. Hager - Devon Energy Corp.:
I believe the questions, David, were not around the sale of any of our core assets, the core of the Delaware Basin or the core of the STACK or anything but were...
David Martin Heikkinen - Heikkinen Energy Advisors LLC:
The flow?
David A. Hager - Devon Energy Corp.:
...more directed around some assets that we could still have some capital programs that are probably well above the cost of capital, but they're not going to compete in our portfolio and not going to receive capital. And so the question is, I believe that the people are asking is, at what point will you make that decision that that's not going to be an area that you're going to allocate significant capital to and might consider for rationalization?
David Martin Heikkinen - Heikkinen Energy Advisors LLC:
Okay.
David A. Hager - Devon Energy Corp.:
But certainly, there is no consideration on our point of selling any of the core assets in our portfolio. We're glad we have them and we think we're some of the best, and we're going to execute on them incredibly well.
David Martin Heikkinen - Heikkinen Energy Advisors LLC:
Yeah, I guess it was just the high-value acreage that may be on the slope and there's been transactions around it. So it is a little more fringy versus on a big block, of course. So maybe that was my confusion. Thanks for clearing that up.
David A. Hager - Devon Energy Corp.:
Yeah, I think they that's probably the questionable area, yeah.
David Martin Heikkinen - Heikkinen Energy Advisors LLC:
Okay. Thanks.
Scott Coody - Devon Energy Corp.:
Well, I'm showing that we're at the top of the hour, and there're still a lot of people left in our queue. So we apologize for everyone that we're not getting to and – but, please don't hesitate to reach out to the Investor Relations team at any point which consist of myself and Chris Carr, and have a good day. And we do appreciate your interest in Devon. Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you, everyone. This will conclude today's conference call. You may now disconnect.
Executives:
Scott Coody - Devon Energy Corp. David A. Hager - Devon Energy Corp. Tony D. Vaughn - Devon Energy Corp. Sue Alberti - Devon Energy Corp. Thomas L. Mitchell - Devon Energy Corp.
Analysts:
Evan Calio - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC Doug Leggate - Bank of America Merrill Lynch Ryan Todd - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc. Arun Jayaram - JPMorgan Securities LLC Edward George Westlake - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker) Scott Hanold - RBC Capital Markets LLC Peter Kissel - Scotia Howard Weil David Martin Heikkinen - Heikkinen Energy Advisors LLC Matthew Merrel Portillo - Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, Inc. David R. Tameron - Wells Fargo Securities LLC James Sullivan - Alembic Global Advisors LLC Bob Alan Brackett - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC
Operator:
Welcome to the Devon Energy third quarter 2016 earnings conference call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. This call is being recorded. I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Scott Coody, Vice President, Investor Relations. Sir, you may begin.
Scott Coody - Devon Energy Corp.:
Thank you and good morning, everyone. I hope everyone has had the chance to review our third quarter financial and operational disclosures that were released last night. This data package includes our earnings release, which includes forward-looking guidance, and our detailed operations report. Also on the call today are
David A. Hager - Devon Energy Corp.:
Thank you, Scott, and welcome, everyone. Devon delivered another outstanding performance in the third quarter both operationally and financially. Our development programs delivered the best quarterly drillbit results in Devon's 45-year history, with new wells reaching peak 30-day rates of nearly 2,000 BOE per day. These prolific drilling results were centered in our world-class STACK play, where oil production increased by nearly 40% year over year. Furthermore, the value of Devon's production continued to be enhanced by substantial cost savings achieved during the quarter. We are now on pace to reduce operating and G&A costs by $1 billion for the full year, which provides an uplift to our margins of nearly $5 per BOE produced. In addition to our strong operating performance, another important accomplishment for Devon was the recent completion of our $3.2 billion asset divestiture program. These accretive transactions significantly strengthen our investment-grade position. And as a result, our net debt has now declined by 45% since the beginning of the year. To further enhance our financial position going forward, we've also been much more active building out our hedging position with the recent increase in commodity prices. With a more focused asset base and improved balance sheet, the next step in our strategic plan is to accelerate investment in our world-class onshore resource plays. By the end of next month, we plan to have 10 operated rigs running, focused within our top two franchise assets, the STACK and Delaware Basin. Looking ahead to 2017, we are still working toward finalizing the details of our operating and capital plans. However, I can tell you that at $55 WTI pricing, our upstream cash flow in 2017, including EnLink distributions, is projected to expand by more than the 100% year over year to around $2.5 billion. Under this scenario, we would steadily ramp up drilling activity over the next several quarters to as many as 15 to 20 operated rigs in the U.S. by year-end 2017. This program would represent upstream capital spending of around $2 billion, allowing us to invest within available cash flow. On a retained asset basis, this focused investment in higher-margin projects is expected to drive double-digit oil growth in the U.S. in 2017 compared to the fourth quarter of 2016, which marks the low point in Devon's production profile. As a result of this growth in oil volumes, top line production of 2017 will range from low to mid-single-digit growth compared to Q4 2016. This range is dependent upon our level of ethane rejection during the year. Importantly, this capital plan is designed to create operational momentum and much stronger growth rates heading into 2018. At a $60 WTI price point in 2018, our upstream cash flow has the potential to reach $3.5 billion, a greater than 200% increase from today's levels. Under this scenario in 2018, we will continue to aggressively ramp up our drilling programs within the U.S., with the majority of this capital directed toward the STACK and Delaware Basin. This low-risk drilling activity is expected to drive production growth of greater than 30% from our STACK and Delaware Basin assets in 2018. This strong growth would further transition Devon's product mix toward higher-margin light oil production in the U.S. Now I want to be very clear. While we're excited about the outstanding growth prospects that reside within our portfolio, our capital allocation will be focused on value and rates of return, not to pursue top line production growth. And if commodity price volatility continues, our capital programs have significant flexibility, with no long-cycle project commitments and negligible leasehold expiration issues. This flexibility allows us to be nimble and tailor activity to invest directionally within cash flow. Another strategic imperative for Devon in the upcoming year is to further delineate and better characterize the growing resource base associated with our U.S. resource plays. Between the STACK and Delaware Basin alone, we have exposure to more than 1 million net acres and thousands of development-ready drilling locations that are highly economic at today's prices. To advance our understanding of the ultimate recovery and resource potential within these two world-class plays, we have important appraisal work underway. In the STACK, this catalyst-rich activity is concentrated on the Meramec infill spacing pilots and further derisking of the Woodford oil window. In the Delaware Basin, the Leonard Shale opportunity set continues to expand, and we are now flowing back on our first STACK lateral test that will help shape our view on how to best develop the three prospective landing zones in this oil-rich shale. 2017 will also be a breakout year for our Delaware Basin Wolfcamp program, as we began to actively develop this emerging play. The Wolfcamp will have a material impact to Devon's resource potential in the Delaware, and we are excited about progressing our understanding of the 9,000-plus potential locations we have identified in this play. The bottom line is that Devon's asset portfolio has never been in better shape than it is today, and I believe that the quality and depth of our opportunity set is unmatched in the industry. We possess thousands of undrilled locations that are extremely well positioned on the North American cost curve. This high rate of return inventory will continue to expand as we derisk the tremendous resource upside associated with our STACK and Delaware Basin assets. With this resource expansion, it could necessitate additional high-grading of our portfolio, monetizing less competitive assets and accelerating the development of our highest rate of return inventory. So, in summary, before we move to Q&A, I want to leave you with a few key messages from today's call. First, our improved financial positioning now allows us to aggressively accelerate drilling activity across our best-in-class resource plays while continuing to focus on the value and rate of return of each investment. These accelerated drilling plans will drive attractive cash flow growth in 2017 and 2018 compared to today's level, and continue to transition Devon's product mix toward higher-margin light oil production in the U.S. In conjunction with our shift to higher-margin production, do not lose sight of our peer group leading leverage to rising commodity prices. For every $1 increase in realized price on a per BOE basis, Devon generates more than $200 million of incremental cash flow annually. Looking beyond prices, Devon is also catalyst-rich over the next several quarters, as we further delineate the massive resource upside associated with the STACK and Delaware Basin positions. And finally, with the continued growth in the quality and depth of our resource base, we expect to have an overabundance of opportunities. If this is the case, we are very willing to further high-grade our portfolio and deploy additional investment toward the best projects in our portfolio. With that, I'll turn the call back to Scott.
Scott Coody - Devon Energy Corp.:
Thanks, Dave. We will now open the call to Q&A. Please limit yourself to one question and a follow-up question. If you have further questions, you can reprompt as time permits. With that, operator, we will take our first question.
Operator:
Your first question comes from Evan Calio with Morgan Stanley. Your line is open.
Evan Calio - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
Good morning, guys.
David A. Hager - Devon Energy Corp.:
Good morning, Evan.
Evan Calio - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
Dave, you mentioned you're evaluating the total inventory as you prepare two core basins to move into development mode in 2017, and that's something that's really supporting a newer 2018 guide here. But the higher-level question, though, is what do you believe the optimal inventory depth should be, maybe on a years of activity basis? It sounds like we should expect a continued rationalization program, if locations grow well beyond those optimal levels. Any thoughts there?
David A. Hager - Devon Energy Corp.:
Evan, and that's always a very difficult question to answer exactly. What is the right inventory level? Somewhat akin to the old R-over-P [Reserves-over-Production] ratio we used to talk about for many years. I think you can obviously directionally have so much inventory that you're not maximizing the value of your inventory, or you can have too short of an inventory that there's questions about the long-term growth of the company, so there's certainly a balance point in there. To name an exact amount of years of inventory is somewhat difficult. I'd say I tend to think probably somewhere on the order of 20 years or so seems about appropriate, but it is certainly a subject that I often actually turn the question back over to some of you guys, to give your feeling. But I can tell you, I'm somewhere in that range, 20 years, 25 years, something like that.
Evan Calio - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
Yeah 15 years, 20 years from our view. A different question on, you provided a year-end 2016 and 2017 rig target levels, or unit levels. I know the board hasn't approved the budget yet. But can you talk about the ramp that's correlated to the move? Is it back-end loaded as you move into development mode, or is it – what's the ramp pace to the 15 units? And is the five delta something commodity related, or is that maybe asset supported, asset-sales related? Any color there.
David A. Hager - Devon Energy Corp.:
Let me walk you through that. So the 10 rigs at year-end 2016 is essentially set, and we are executing that. I think it's important to understand, it's really the 10 rigs plus the completion activity that we are conducting, that's really driving our 2017 volumes. And so that's why we're very excited about the comp on the volumes that we've talked about in the operations report. The ramp up to the 15 to 20 rigs really won't add production in 2017, but that's why we're so excited about 2018 as we do ramp up to that level. That's what's going to provide the even higher growth levels as we move into 2018, led by more than 30% growth in the STACK and the Delaware. Now the variability around that is really more – at this point, I'd say more commodity price driven. Although frankly, we do have – we are committed roughly to live within cash flow. It there's a little bit of variability around that, we're willing to exceed cash flow by a minor amount, perhaps if necessary, supplement with incremental small-scale asset sales. We also, as you know, we've been hedging significantly more, so that's helped underpin and provide more comfort to the cash flows that we'll have in 2017. But the opportunities are there. We're confident that we have the opportunities there. So I'd say the delta is really more commodity price driven than opportunity driven.
Evan Calio - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
Great. Thanks, guys.
Scott Coody - Devon Energy Corp.:
Evan, this is Scott. Just one thing I'd like to add on that too. I would also say it's about productivity as well. If you look at where that capital is going, it's going to be focused in the STACK and Delaware Basin, and those are two of the highest rate of change plays that you're seeing, as far as drilling days and improved completion designs. So I would say that we're getting better and better at that, so that would also have an impact with regards to what that rig ramp would be needed, to deliver the production that we've talked about.
Evan Calio - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
Yeah, particularly in the (14:30).
Operator:
Your next question comes from Doug Leggate with Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Your line is open.
Doug Leggate - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
I was trying to say good morning, everybody.
David A. Hager - Devon Energy Corp.:
Good morning, Doug.
Doug Leggate - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
So, Dave, you've raised the type curves obviously in the STACK, but you have not addressed the issue of the inventory. My recollection is, you were using four wells per section, three upper and one lower, if I recollect. What do you need to see in terms of your density spacing in order to update that backlog, and what's your early thoughts on it, if you can?
David A. Hager - Devon Energy Corp.:
Doug, just to be clear, the inventory is going up. There's no question about that. We've had about three successful pilots so far. I think we've tested now one zone up to seven wells per section. That's worked out very well. We have another 10 pilots or so. They're detailed in the operations report, the locations of those pilots. So really it's just a matter of timing, when we feel like we have enough information from each of those pilots to increase the number. But there's no question it's going up. So, Tony, you want to add any details to that?
Tony D. Vaughn - Devon Energy Corp.:
Doug, I think Dave summed it up perfectly. We're working on coming out of 2017 with development in two of our areas central to the work that we've been doing with the pilots. And we've got the detailed data already in-house on the three operated pilots. We're starting to get data in right now on three non-operated pilots. And as Dave mentioned, we've got another six or seven pilots that we're engaged in now. So all that information is helping us inform our 2017 development plans. And I think, as we get more data under our belt, we'll come out and see a material increase to that inventory.
Doug Leggate - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Okay, I guess I'll have to be a little more patient. My follow-up, if I may, is I realize oil is heading in the wrong direction again this morning, and who knows what 2017 is going to look like? But you've laid out a trajectory that's got you tripling cash flow basically by 2018 at $60 oil. I'm just curious as to what should we infer by way of your activity level with that level of cash flow? And perhaps in even a higher oil price environment, where does Devon go in terms of activity, or do we flatten out at a targeted growth level at a particular rig level, but maybe return cash to shareholders at some point?
David A. Hager - Devon Energy Corp.:
Doug, as you well know, we have a very deep inventory of opportunities, and certainly the two franchise assets that we have are the STACK play and the Delaware Basin play. And so if prices go even higher than that, we certainly can ramp up activity even further there. We are always going to be mindful, though. I want to emphasize; we're going to be mindful of the returns. So we're not driven by top line production growth. We are driven by getting good returns for every dollar in our capital program, but we feel we have the opportunities we could further drive up activity in both of those areas, plus we have other areas that we are not funding right now as much as could be if we had higher cash flow levels. They already have returned well above the cost of capital, but they just don't compete as well as the Delaware Basin and the STACK. In the Rockies, we are starting to fund now with one rig. We could add activity there with strong returns. And even the Barnett, and we've laid out some numbers in the operations report how we're driving down the cost there. We think we have a program that we can do both from the horizontal refracs and from additional drilling locations that right now are well above the cost of capital. They're just not as good as the Delaware Basin and STACK, so we are focusing our capital there because they're the highest returns. So we do not have a shortage of opportunities. And so I think if prices are even higher, we'd look at funding some of those opportunities as well.
Doug Leggate - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
David, I don't want to belabor or take up too much time here, but I want to be clear what I'm asking because one of your competitors is talking about a mid-cycle $55 level. I realize that's totally subjective, but their point is in a higher oil price environment, the industry got itself into bit of a mess by growing too quickly. And they would look upon that as a windfall and would not jerk around their rig count with a view to longer-term sustainable growth. What I'm hearing from you is that you would respond to a higher oil price with higher activity levels. I guess my question is, is that what the industry wants to see? Is high growth just going to keep this oil price in the problem we've got right now, or is there an argument that says work towards a growth level and return any perceived "windfalls" to shareholders? I guess that's really what I'm asking.
David A. Hager - Devon Energy Corp.:
Doug, it's my view that what got the industry in trouble at the higher commodity prices is that there are a lot of projects that were funded out there that were very marginal projects, and we didn't pay enough attention to the reservoir. We didn't pay enough attention to the fundamental economics. And so I don't think it's so much the activity level in and of itself. It's the fact that this activity level was really going towards projects that didn't provide the returns that they should. And so I can tell you here at Devon, we are very, very focused on returns, and we're very, very focused on the reservoir and making sure that each project that we do is going to provide good returns. So I don't necessarily think there's a problem on an individual company level as long as you can be confident you can provide good returns. I think what really happened is at $90 oil, a lot of these projects being funded were not providing good returns. We're overcapitalizing some of these fields, frankly, and that's what the big issue was.
Doug Leggate - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
I appreciate the answer, Dave. Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Ryan Todd with Deutsche Bank. Your line is open.
Ryan Todd - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Great, thanks. Maybe if I could follow up on STACK activity, can you talk a little bit about how you view the mix of Meramec versus Woodford activity as we're looking at 2017, and any thoughts on what the potential swing in non-op CapEx might look like there?
Tony D. Vaughn - Devon Energy Corp.:
Excuse me, Ryan, Tony Vaughn here. Our plans are to, as Dave mentioned, we're going to be at – we're at six rigs coming into this year end, and we've got the capacity to build up that to roughly about 12 rigs. We have plans in the second half of 2017 to engage back into a drilling campaign on another row called the Jacobs Row, and you see that on page 10 of our operating report. So if I had to – we haven't gone through the budgeting process yet, so I can't say specifically how this will happen. But for the most part, our drilling activity up until about midyear of 2017 will be concentrated in the Meramec. And then in the second half of 2017, we'll take probably roughly about four of those rigs and move them into our Woodford campaign. If you look at the magnitude of our OBO spending in the STACK play, it's quite substantial. I think we talked to you guys before about the level of participation that we had, not just in operated wells, but we have 430,000 acres in the play. So we have access to a lot of data, a lot of information, and that drives a spend of about $300 million per year from our non-operated exposure.
Ryan Todd - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Okay, thanks. That's helpful. And then maybe I know this is always a hard thing to quantify, but any thoughts on what inning you're in for LOE and G&A cost reductions? The cost reductions over the past 18 months have been extremely impressive. Should we expect to continue to see downward pressure on those, and is there any risk to inflation in either one of those as we see rigs ramp over the next 12 months?
David A. Hager - Devon Energy Corp.:
I'll take the G&A part and I'll let Tony talk about the LOE side. We obviously did a significant reduction in employees earlier in the year, on the order of 25%. It was a big move for us as a company, and it obviously involved some pain, losing some good friends. We did maintain the key operational capability and the key value drivers that can allow us to execute we feel comfortably a $3 billion capital program of about 20 operated rigs. And so we see really that we are at a given – what we've laid out here is potential for 2017 and 2018 that we are comfortable with the level of G&A in the company, and so I wouldn't expect a significant change on that one way or the other. Tony may want to talk a little bit about the LOE side of the equation. I think probably we found most of the big gains, but I think that we're always continuing to look more. As the infrastructure increases in some of these fields, there may be some more things that we can do. So, Tony?
Tony D. Vaughn - Devon Energy Corp.:
Ryan, I think – I'll tell you I've got to hand it to our operating team both in the field and here in the office. They've taken a very passionate approach to driving cost out of the business, and you can see the improvements that we've made over the last two years. And I think if you were to look at the cost or the price of materials and services, it is starting to level out, starting to flatten out in most of those areas, but that doesn't mean we're still looking for opportunities to continually improve our business. In some of those areas, we've unbundled or decoupled different components of our operations. As an example, separating the saltwater disposal from the water hauling vendors, that's offered improvements there. We've continued to build out our infrastructure and have more water and pipe now. We have a better power grid system, especially in the Delaware Basin. All that's tending to drive cost down. So probably the tension that we see in the business is coming. We also have by virtue of our sale of the Access Pipeline an increased transportation fee that would be coupled into our LOE costs. But for the most part, our guys are continuing to work LOE in a very passionate approach.
Ryan Todd - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Great, thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Arun Jayaram from JPMorgan. Your line is open.
Arun Jayaram - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Good morning, gentlemen. I wanted to see if I could discuss a little bit about your thoughts on guidance. You gave us a lot of clues how we should be thinking about 2017 and 2018 in terms of the ops report, but tell me if this is what you're trying to convey. You guided to at least double-digit U.S. oil production growth in 2017 versus the Q4 guidance. I think the guide was 105.5 MBOE per day at the midpoint. And then if we assume Canada is relatively flat from Q4 levels, including maybe a turnaround in Q2, that to me suggests that your overall guidance, soft guide, however you want to call it, would be oil a bit north of 250 MBOE per day versus the Street at 243. Am I thinking about that right? And also, can you give us some sense of what capital it would take to achieve that in 2017?
David A. Hager - Devon Energy Corp.:
Let me address first the capital and then I'll have Scott address the detailed question on the volumes. I did say in my opening remarks there that the capital in 2017 we anticipate being around $2 billion of E&P spend. But it is also important to understand that really the volumes in 2017 are being primarily driven by the completion work that we currently have ongoing in specifically the Eagle Ford but also other areas, and then in addition to that, the 10 rigs that we're going to have working by the end of this year. The incremental capital of going from 15 to 20 rigs, which really rough numbers increases our capital budget that would be at 10 rigs if we stayed flat there for the year, probably about $1.6 billion versus going to 20 rigs would be around $2 billion. That incremental dollar is really driving 2018 volumes, which is why we're really excited just because of the timing of how long it takes to bring these wells on production. So it's not really a matter of $2 billion is needed to drive those 2017 volumes. We could do that at a lower level and it would just impact 2018, but that's again why we're even more excited about the growth potential in 2018. So, Scott?
Scott Coody - Devon Energy Corp.:
With regards to the production, Arun, I think directionally you're absolutely thinking about that correct. We would expect to be – when you combine the U.S. and Canada from an oil productive perspective we would expect to be north of 250,000 barrels. So we'll firm up that guidance as we get with our fourth quarter call. We're still working through the detailed operating and capital budgets, but directionally you're absolutely thinking about that correctly. And once again, I do want to emphasize, though, that is absolutely being driven by light oil growth in the U.S. So you're seeing a real time shift to high-margin production for Devon, which is going to significantly enhance our profitability.
Arun Jayaram - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
That's great. Thank you, Scott. And just to follow up, Dave, you commented in your prepared remarks about potentially looking at opportunities, just given the inventory depth to high-grade the overall portfolio. Can you give us a sense of timing and magnitude, and just what you guys are thinking about in terms of potentially monetizing more assets?
David A. Hager - Devon Energy Corp.:
There are a lot of variables that go into this equation. I can tell you, we want to get a greater sense of the inventory, particularly in the STACK and the Delaware Basin, where we are doing these spacing tests in the STACK play, both between the Meramec. You can see also, there's some now – some Woodford oil potential that's developing underneath the STACK. Want to get a sense for that and how many zones in the Meramec are going to work. We've laid out that we're testing up to eight wells per section in the primary and six in the secondary in the Meramec. Now we're talking about a Woodford zone there. And then in the Wolfcamp, we talked about the Leonard and testing how many zones in the Leonard may work, as well as the fact that the Wolfcamp is – we have 9,000 unrisked locations there, and we've moved about 500 or so into the risked locations, and that's going to continue to grow. So that's going to take till – we'll start getting a better feel for that probably to mid next year. So that's one factor in it. And then the other big factor in it is really long-term commodity prices, because you can see the leverage to the cash flow that we have from the operations report, the leverage that we have to higher cash flow at higher commodity prices, which is the highest leverage in the industry. And so, where do we think long-term commodity prices are going to level out has a big impact on what cash flow we're going to have, which has a big impact of how many other opportunities that we can fund in other areas that already have potential returns well above the cost of capital, they're just not as big as the Delaware and the STACK. So we want to get a better handle from both of those variables, probably mid-2017 at the earliest, before we make any strategic calls.
Arun Jayaram - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Great, thank you for that.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Edward Westlake with Credit Suisse. Your line is open.
Edward George Westlake - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker):
Good morning, congrats on the risked location update and the cash flow guidance. Just on the Delaware Wolfcamp, you've put in 500 risked locations. It looks like a large majority are in Rattlesnake and the Mi Vida. The 9,000 number, maybe just talk through the work that has to be done to unrisk those, and what EURs you'd expect on the core 500?
Tony D. Vaughn - Devon Energy Corp.:
Okay. Ed, I think we've just talked about, in the operations report, the Rattlesnake and Mi Vida area, and we've mentioned that we have about 500 risked locations there. But we have a total of about 9,000 unrisked locations across our position in the Delaware Basin. And I'd have to say that industry has done an outstanding job of derisking the play. It's moved from the Texas side of the basin up to the state line, and now north of that state line, so we're utilizing a lot of that information. We do participate in some non-operated activity in there, so we're getting a good feel of the potential in the Wolfcamp. I think some of the things that we're still anxious to understand, through some of our pilot work that we'll engage in, will be the vertical connectivity between that very thick Wolfcamp column. We know that, out of the 2,000 wells drilled, and we've drilled some on the New Mexico side as well, we just haven't really prosecuted that in our development plan. But we know that from the X-Y through the upper – through the lower portion of the Wolfcamp, it's all productive. And so it will really be a matter of the development style that we choose to engage in. I think one of the elements that we're incorporating into our thoughts as we go into 2017 is bringing in an aggressive approach from the Leonard A, B, and C intervals. We've got a stacked pilot engaged right now to help us understand the vertical connectivity. We spent most of our time in the B zone. The industry has spent most of their activity in the C, so we know each of the three intervals are productive. We're seeing some encouraging results. We're not commenting on that because the data is pretty young right now. We'll come back out and clear up the results of that soon. But we'll incorporate the three intervals in the Leonard with the typical work that we do in the Bone Spring and the two in the southern portion of the two New Mexico counties, and have a pretty aggressive approach into the Wolfcamp in both the Rattlesnake and Mi Vida areas. They'll be the first two areas that we engage the Wolfcamp.
Edward George Westlake - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker):
Thanks, very fulsome answer. Just on the Eastern Woodford, your well cost is $6 million to $6.5 million, and the EUR is 1,600 MBOE, and it's 25% oil, and that Old Ricky's Ridge well, it's 60% oil. It almost feels like it will be better than the stuff over in Blaine. As Blaine gets deeper, the costs go up. You're getting similar types of EURs. Maybe just a little bit of elaboration in terms of why those well results
Tony D. Vaughn - Devon Energy Corp.:
I think you're picking up on it. There's a lot of variability in the subsurface portions of the Meramec and the Woodford. The depth does run from the shallow being in the east to the northeast to the southwest, as you described. Also, about midway between the northeast of our position and the far southwest, there are some subsurface intricacies that make us run a third casing string. So as you move up into the Old Ricky's Ridge area, it's a very important data point there that we wanted to highlight simply because the oil cut is 60%. We really hadn't valued that in our thoughts about the Meramec. But as you can see up there, we think there could be a substantial NAV add if you move that high oil cut across the upper portion of our Meramec play. So this really sets us up for that stacked development from the five intervals in the Meramec and the Woodford. Also unique about Ricky's Ridge, it was a 10,000-foot Woodford test. We incorporated 70 stages in that frac design and pumped about 2,600 pounds per foot of sand. So it was a pretty aggressive attempt to see what we could do there. We're very happy with the results. You can see some of the 90-day IP is solid, but the more important thing is the production profile is flat and much more optimistic than our initial expectations. So I think Ricky's Ridge is an important data point for us to keep her eye on.
David A. Hager - Devon Energy Corp.:
And it's a little bit cheaper over there too because you're shallower to the northeast and get deeper to the southwest. And so that's true both whether you're drilling Meramec or Woodford wells.
Edward George Westlake - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker):
Thanks very much.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Scott Hanold with RBC Capital Markets. Your line is open.
Scott Hanold - RBC Capital Markets LLC:
Thanks. I have a question on the STACK. It looks like you're going to be increasing activity in these longer 10,000-foot laterals. Can you give us a sense of how much of your acreage ultimately do you think is amenable to that? And what efforts are ongoing to help block up acreage more so this can become part of the long-term development plan?
Tony D. Vaughn - Devon Energy Corp.:
Scott, that's a good piece of the business that our business unit is engaged in every day. And so we're working with other operators there to block up and try to provide the most opportunity to drill long laterals. We find that to be the right answer, and especially in this particular play. Data is fairly early on that, but all the long laterals that we have drilled are outperforming initial expectations. We've got a very aggressive type curve that you can see there. So we're very excited about that ability to drill those long laterals. So we think about 2/3 of our position is currently available to drill the 10,000-footers. And so the majority of our work going into 2017 or at least 2/3 of that work will really be directed towards the long lateral type work.
Scott Hanold - RBC Capital Markets LLC:
Specifically, do you find right now other operators are fairly willing? Are we at the right stage in the STACK for other operators to be willing to help do this and block up their acreage as well as yours?
Tony D. Vaughn - Devon Energy Corp.:
I think there's a good dialogue that's just now happening. There's a part of an industry group that we participate in with most of our larger operators in the field. They're working very well together. I think everybody is looking at operatorship. Everybody is looking at their position, trying to make sure that we take a very efficient approach. So some of the work that you've seen us and heard us talk about with our Cimarex partner in the Woodford has been very accommodating to both the work that Cimarex does and Devon has done, bringing out the most efficient results. And I think we're just now starting to see some of those type of conversations happen with most of the operators there in the Meramec play.
Scott Hanold - RBC Capital Markets LLC:
Okay, thanks. And then to follow up on the Mi Vida area again, can you give us a sense of why this has popped onto your focus? Is it some work geologically you have done, or is it more of what you're seeing from industry? Maybe this is looking at it a little bit too closely. But if I look at that map, you've got obviously some acreage outside of that little box that you drew down there. Is there any particular reason that's not included?
Tony D. Vaughn - Devon Energy Corp.:
I think the one thing unique about the Mi Vida area is we've got I think about 5,500 to 6,000 net acres there, 8,000 gross roughly. So we've got a nice contiguous position in that portion of the Wolfcamp right there on the border of Reeves and Ward County. So it really sets us up for, again, a more efficient development going forward. So that's really caused us to put that on our radar screen. And we're getting a lot of good competitive data around us. There are some good wells that are being drilled there. Again, we're trying to see and understand the vertical connectivity between that column to understand best how to develop that.
Scott Hanold - RBC Capital Markets LLC:
Thanks.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Peter Kissel with Scotia Howard Weil. Your line is now open.
Peter Kissel - Scotia Howard Weil:
Thanks for taking my questions, maybe just another on the cost side of things, but more on the CapEx side than the OpEx side. In your supplemental presentation, you mentioned that you're proactively securing services to mitigate inflationary pressure in 2017. I was just curious if you could elaborate on that a little bit more, maybe in particular where you see the inflationary pressures and how you're mitigating that.
David A. Hager - Devon Energy Corp.:
Hey, Pete. I'm going to introduce Sue Alberti. Sue is our Senior Vice President here that manages our marketing and supply chain groups. She's very well connected, and her group is with our operating team. So I'm going to let Sue describe some of the work that we're doing on the price of our goods and services.
Sue Alberti - Devon Energy Corp.:
Thank you. I'd like to say, we do think that as commodity prices improve and activity increases, we're looking to – we will get that inflationary pressure next year. We think that that could be mid to high single digits, especially in the stimulation area. And I'll tell you a few of the things that we're doing to mitigate those cost increases on the capital side. As you said, we talked about proactively securing equipment and crews at competitive prices, and we're locking in rates and terms where it makes sense given our outlook right now. So for example, on the rig side, we've locked in two long-term agreements for these rigs at current market rates. And then Tony, talking about the LOE, said that we were unbundling the water transport and water disposal. We're doing unbundling on the capital side too in the stimulation area. And we've recently started this where we're contracting separately for pressure pumping, sand, chemicals, and diesel, taking out the markup of the bundling. And while it's new and we don't have a lot of data yet, what we're realizing what we see right now is about a 10% savings from that unbundling. So we probably will look to do maybe more of that, but we're very encouraged with those results.
David A. Hager - Devon Energy Corp.:
I just want to add that Sue talked about probably the high single-digit type service cost increase. Again, we think we can offset that with all these internal efficiencies that we're doing. So she mentioned some of the efforts. There's a lot more than that going on, just the continuing design of the wells. I think Tony may even like to brag on a few wells we drilled recently in the Delaware. I'm not sure if you're going there, Tony, but I see you holding a piece of paper that I think you're proud of.
Tony D. Vaughn - Devon Energy Corp.:
I'm trying to let you go in and say your few words and let me get it in here. Pete, I tell you I'm really excited about the work we do, and we've talked a little bit about the passion for the tentacle work that our operating teams do. On the drilling side of the business, we just stood up a Delaware rig and have now drilled three wells from spud to TD. Those used to take 17 days to complete. All three of these are averaging about 10 days now. That's really an approach to an optimized design that we've had the luxury of tying to a lot more subsurface data than we've had in the past. It's also reflective of really the granular detail towards the execution of our business. And, Pete, I think we've talked to you about the well-con [well control] center there. So we're getting a lot of efficiencies both on the drill side of the business but also on the completion side of the business. And all that passion for data acquisition and integrating that into three-dimensional earth models and picking the right landing zone and designing more optimized or better frac designs, all that is paying off. And we're also putting a lot of attention into the execution portion of the completion space. We monitor all the operations on the frac. We monitor all of the data on the flowback of the wells in great detail. We have also recently incorporated the coiled tubing drill-out data in our well-con center, so we think that's another potential savings there. So while Sue has mentioned that the industry is going to have some tension on cost, we think from the technical work that we're doing, we've got the ability to offset that in 2017, and very excited about additional enhancements that will be available to us for more of that type of work in the second half of 2017 and 2018.
Peter Kissel - Scotia Howard Weil:
Great, Tony. Thank you, that's a great answer. One quick follow-up, more the efficiency side, though. In the STACK in particular, as activity levels continue to increase, what do you see as the biggest gating factors there, maybe for the play in general but also Devon in particular? Is it midstream? Is it water availability? I know the play doesn't produce much water, but is there any concerns you have looking forward for any of those items?
Tony D. Vaughn - Devon Energy Corp.:
Pete, it's not on takeaway out of the basin. I think Sue could talk to us in a little bit of detail about that. We're not worried about that through 2017 and into 2018. A lot of the pace of activity right now is more associated with just doing good quality work, getting all the pilot work under our belt before we finalize our development plans going forward. And just like we do in all of our areas, we'll have a good build-out of infrastructure there. So we know that, say on the water handling side of the business, there could be a time when we have 20 rigs running just in STACK that there's a heavy demand on water, water handling. We'll be mimicking some of the work that we've done in the Cana-Woodford project and also in the Delaware Basin to make sure that that's very efficient, and our operating costs going forward are low and well thought through. And, Sue, I don't know if you want to add any comments to that.
Sue Alberti - Devon Energy Corp.:
Let me add a little bit to what Tony was saying about takeaway. We don't have any short-term concerns regarding for Devon processing or takeaway constraints in the STACK. And we have been working with EnLink to ensure that they will have adequate processing capacity for us on our forecasted production. In addition, we've got firm takeaway for our oil and our NGLs and actually until 2019 at this point. I would say, though, that longer term when you think about the growth in this area, we think that there needs to be an industry solution for residue gas takeaway, and we're actively working solutions with multiple midstream companies to address this. But given the timeframe when we think that will be needed, we believe that there is enough time in order to get that in place when the growth is met.
Peter Kissel - Scotia Howard Weil:
Great, thanks again, guys.
Operator:
Your next question comes from David Heikkinen with Heikkinen Energy Advisors. Your line is open.
David Martin Heikkinen - Heikkinen Energy Advisors LLC:
Good morning, guys.
David A. Hager - Devon Energy Corp.:
Good morning, David.
David Martin Heikkinen - Heikkinen Energy Advisors LLC:
One thing that we've been thinking about is the industry ramp in the Permian and just thinking about Devon's advantages around securing oil, gas, NGL, and water takeaway capacity with the EnLink relationship. Can you talk some about that over the long term with the 30% ramp in production in 2018 and beyond?
David A. Hager - Devon Energy Corp.:
I think absolutely it's an advantage when we're in growth plays. We have a very close relationship with EnLink. They are our midstream provider in the STACK play, and it gives us great comfort that they are. We have that relationship, so we can have teams working on essentially a daily basis on looking at what the long-term needs are and making sure that they have the right gathering, processing, and takeaway capacity at the right time to ensure that we can execute our capital plan and get our wells hooked up on a timely basis and get that value. So certainly, when you're in the growth mode in a basin, I think a tight relationship with your midstream provider is very important, and we have that with EnLink.
David Martin Heikkinen - Heikkinen Energy Advisors LLC:
A secondary thought and question, with your well-level return focus, how do you think about the shift in Devon's corporate return as you become more light oil? Just return on capital employed, or what metric should we use? And have you done any thoughts of well-level economics translating into corporate economics?
David A. Hager - Devon Energy Corp.:
We tend to talk about the incremental well-level economics on these calls. But I can tell you that we actively look also at what we would consider full-cycle returns in each of our key project areas. Just trying to look at return on capital employed when you have all these write-offs is just – if you're just looking at that, it's hard to get a good calculation off the financials. But we look at it just from a pure rate of return, all cash spent, all cash we're getting back in each of our key plays, to make sure that we're not only delivering on good incremental well-level economics, but we're, from a total investment level, that we're generating good returns on each area we work.
David Martin Heikkinen - Heikkinen Energy Advisors LLC:
At mid-cycle...
Scott Coody - Devon Energy Corp.:
Dave, real quick. Hey, Dave, this is Scott, real quick. To further address that question, you will absolutely start seeing these high rate of return wells in the future years impact our ROCE calculations in a very positive manner. And also, another proxy for that would be on a cash flow per debt-adjusted share basis. It's certainly something that we view will be a very differentiating metric for Devon going forward.
David Martin Heikkinen - Heikkinen Energy Advisors LLC:
I guess, what do you think that the full-cycle returns are in your STACK and Delaware?
David A. Hager - Devon Energy Corp.:
It's hard to give you that number right now, because the play is still changing so much and how much incremental resource are we going to have over our original assumptions, because the economics of each individual well is improving, and we have a lot more wells than in our original acquisition assumptions. So, it's certainly improving, but to give an absolute number, I think at this point, would be very difficult.
Tony D. Vaughn - Devon Energy Corp.:
Dave, I'll just add a little bit of a description of what we do on the operating side of the business. On a quarterly basis, we get the senior leaders from across the company together on a by business unit basis, and we do a look-back of the work that we just finished for the quarter, and how that infers the forward look. We also have, I think, a very detailed look-back project from a project basis, but also from an annual investment basis. So I think we do a really good job of ensuring that we have an accountable approach to the work that we do. It's all based on historical results, shaped with a forward, continuous improvement look. So it's a pretty detailed process here in the operating teams.
David Martin Heikkinen - Heikkinen Energy Advisors LLC:
Thanks, guys.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Matt Portillo with TPH. Your line is open.
Matthew Merrel Portillo - Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, Inc.:
Good morning, guys.
David A. Hager - Devon Energy Corp.:
Good morning, Matt.
Matthew Merrel Portillo - Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, Inc.:
Just going back to the Woodford, I wanted to see if we could get some color or context around your development plans on the Jacobs Row, obviously quite interesting that you plan to utilize 10,000-foot laterals, but trying to get a better sense of maybe the size and scale from a section or well-count perspective that you might have in that development. It seems like it could be a pretty material growth plan for you going into 2018.
Tony D. Vaughn - Devon Energy Corp.:
Matt, I think we're getting information in on the Hobson Row that will help us understand and infer the magnitude of a performance improvement by going from the normal laterals to the 10,000-foot laterals. So we're going to utilize that to our advantage where we can, as we go into the Jacobs Row. So, I think over 800 wells now have been drilled and completed and are producing. Each of the new vintage completions that we see, we tend to outperform the past or previous type curves. Costs are continuing to come down, so another step change here, in addition to the Ricky's Ridge. And the increased oil content of our fluid going forward is really just incorporating that 10,000-foot concept into the works. I think the returns on the Woodford play are beginning to shape up as being dramatically better than they have been in the past when it really has been in what we call the core portion of our field.
David A. Hager - Devon Energy Corp.:
And don't hold me to exact number, but there are roughly 60 wells in the Jacobs development.
Matthew Merrel Portillo - Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, Inc.:
Great, and then just a follow-up question. We've talked a lot today about the Delaware and the STACK as your core oil developments. Just curious your thoughts on the Eagle Ford as you potentially return to activity in the play, any opportunity to continue to optimize completion designs as the basin has been in a frozen moment here for the last year or so? And are you changing any of your views on the spacing? I know that you have a new spacing design that you may be testing here, with the diamond formation.
Tony D. Vaughn - Devon Energy Corp.:
Matt, I tell you, we're real pleased with where we are in the Eagle Ford. And if you go back and look at the pace of our activity, it's greatly slowed down in 2016 versus 2014 and early 2015. In fact, we were bringing on about 70 to 75 wells per quarter in that timeframe. In Q1 of this year, we were down to 22 wells brought on in the quarter. Second quarter there was only five, third quarter was only five. So we've seen the rate drop off there, but it is now stabilized, and we have four frac crews in the field that are lowering our DUC inventory down. That's being done for a couple of purposes, but the primary purpose is to get information on the staggered lateral approach to the development, which is incorporating the upper Eagle Ford. And that information we're looking forward to having in 2017, which will shape what I think will be an accelerated pace of activity in the second half of 2017, which will have the potential for a material rate impact going into 2018. So, we are looking forward. We are continuing to improve our completion designs. Historically, we have pumped pretty much roughly a 2,000-pound per lateral foot type of job. We've moved that to more of a hybrid type fluid, and we're increasing the proppant load up to close to 3,000 pounds per lateral foot at this point, so a substantial change to the completions. The wells are just now starting to flow back on a few of those new completions. We're not ready to talk about that, but we're highly encouraged that some of the well rates that you've seen has report in the past we're going to materially beat as we go forward. So that play is setting itself up for what I think will be an accelerated ramp-up in the second half of 2017.
Matthew Merrel Portillo - Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, Inc.:
Great, thank you very much.
Operator:
Your next question comes from David Tameron with Wells Fargo. Your line is open.
David R. Tameron - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
Everything has been asked. I'm good, thanks.
Scott Coody - Devon Energy Corp.:
Operator, we're ready for the next question.
Operator:
And your next question comes from David Tameron.
David R. Tameron - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
Operator, you can move on to the next.
Operator:
And your next question comes from James Sullivan with Alembic Global Advisors. Your line is open.
James Sullivan - Alembic Global Advisors LLC:
Hey. Good morning, guys. A lot of stuff asked and answered. I just wanted to quickly ask you guys to touch on, if you could. You mentioned it just in passing, the Powder River and they ran your rig back there (58:35), an area that you guys have spoken positively about obviously a number of times in that position over there. Obviously, you're adding the rigs, so you feel pretty good about it. What gets that area a big percentage of a limited capital pie? Is it just that you guys need a longer runway on infrastructure and permitting? I know you're looking at both those things, but what is it and what's the state of play over there right now?
Tony D. Vaughn - Devon Energy Corp.:
James, thanks for bringing that up. We've been real pleased with the work that we've done in the Powder River Basin in the past, and we've been operating in that area for quite some time. If you recall, back before commodity prices dropped, we were drilling probably the highest return wells in the portfolio, in especially the Parkman in the Powder River Basin. And so we did take a pause in our activity as commodity prices ramped down and our focus has gone to STACK and Delaware. We've continued to work the subsurface portion of that. We have an extensive 3-D coverage across that entire basin. So we have what I think will be unparalleled knowledge about the subsurface there. After the acquisition, we doubled our position there, and it's all Tier 1 opportunity connected. And we've got about three rig lines ready to go. It's a matter of managing the portfolio and staying within our cash flow. So we think it's a great an asset. You've seen some transactions happen in the Powder which further confirm what we think the ultimate value in the Powder position will be. So while it won't ever have the scale and materiality that we'll see in the STACK or Delaware, it's got outstanding returns and we're looking forward to showing you additional subsurface results.
James Sullivan - Alembic Global Advisors LLC:
Okay, great. Thanks, guys.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Bob Brackett with Bernstein. Your line is open.
Bob Alan Brackett - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC:
Hey, good afternoon now, a question on the track development plan in the Delaware. Can you talk about the trajectory of wells per pad, say, last year or this year going into next year and what that steady-state number looks like?
Tony D. Vaughn - Devon Energy Corp.:
Bob, historically and I don't know if it's more than just Devon, but the industry has really been prosecuting two and three-well pads across the Delaware Basin. And the areas where we have a larger contiguous position, we're going to employ this new design concept. And so there are up to about 14 known productive intervals in that Delaware Basin column, Bob. And so when you look at the number of unrisked locations that we've highlighted of 20,000, there's got to be a more compelling development plan going forward to accelerate present value. So that's the concept that we're looking forward to. The way we're designing the track process, it's highly flexible between what we need to get done in the Delaware, which has some additional challenges with the federal permitting. But the concepted frac will be applied both in the Delaware and STACK on both of those STACK developments. So it's hard to tell you exactly how many wells per pad, but I can see us putting maybe up to 30 wells in a given section. We'll utilize very efficient drilling pads coupled with more of a centralized tank battery, so we'll see quite a few advantages. We've tried to highlight the advantages in our operating report, so you can take a look at that.
Bob Alan Brackett - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC:
But will you do a pilot track sometime in the next years, or how do you get from where you are today to rolling out track?
Tony D. Vaughn - Devon Energy Corp.:
We're going to push forward in 2017 employing this concept. We think it will be – you can call it a pilot, or really just to go forward with the development plan. We think there's a lot of flexibility in this, so we're going to be pushing forward to a more creative solution for our developments going forward.
Bob Alan Brackett - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC:
And then a last follow-up, if a look at your 7.5-ish rigs for 4Q, you're calling for about $400 million in CapEx for the quarter. If I just scale that and say you're going to run double those rigs next year, and there are four quarters next year, I get closer to a $3 billion – $3.2 billion CapEx spend. But you're talking about $2 billion. How should I think about that?
Thomas L. Mitchell - Devon Energy Corp.:
Yes, included in the $400 million will be also a larger component of – it will include the OBO component, plus we have other just leasehold expenditures, things like that, that are not actually Devon-operated drilling rig components. So really when you talk about going to the – and I've been talking about it on the Street for quite some time that we're going to be a run rate of around $1.6 billion with the 10 operated rigs. So going from 10 to 15 to 20, you're not increasing all these other components that are in our capital program, you're just increasing the operated rig component. And if you do the math on that, say on average it's another 7.5 rigs over 0.5 year or so, maybe that's more like four rigs. So you take four figs and average working interest, you get somewhere around that incremental $400 million to get you around $2 billion.
Bob Alan Brackett - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC:
Got you, thanks for that math.
Thomas L. Mitchell - Devon Energy Corp.:
Yeah.
Operator:
And there are no further questions at this time. I'll turn the call back to Mr. Coody.
Scott Coody - Devon Energy Corp.:
Thank you, and we appreciate everyone's interest in Devon today. If you have any additional questions, feel free to reach out to the IR team at any time, myself or Chris Carr. And once again, thank you for everything.
Operator:
This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.
Executives:
Howard J. Thill - Devon Energy Corp. David A. Hager - Devon Energy Corp. Tony D. Vaughn - Devon Energy Corp.
Analysts:
Pearce Hammond - Simmons Piper Jaffray Arun Jayaram - JPMorgan Securities LLC Edward G. Westlake - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker) Peter Kissel - Scotia Howard Weil Charles A. Meade - Johnson Rice & Co. LLC Doug Leggate - Bank of America Merrill Lynch Scott Hanold - RBC Capital Markets LLC Evan Calio - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC David R. Tameron - Wells Fargo Securities LLC John P. Herrlin - SG Americas Securities LLC Ryan Todd - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.
Operator:
Welcome to the Devon Energy second quarter 2016 earnings conference call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. This call is being recorded. I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Howard Thill, Senior Vice President of Communications and Investor Relations. Sir, you may begin.
Howard J. Thill - Devon Energy Corp.:
Thank you, Chrissy, and good morning, everyone. I hope you've had a chance, as always, to review our earnings release information last night and this morning. That information includes our forward-looking guidance as well as our detailed ops report. Also on the call today are Dave Hager, President and CEO; Tony Vaughn, Chief Operating Officer; Tom Mitchell, EVP and Chief Financial Officer; and a few other members of our senior management team. Also, I'd like to remind you that questions and comments on this call today will contain plans, forecasts, expectations, and estimates that are forward-looking statements under U.S. securities law. These comments and answers are subject to a number of assumptions, risks, and uncertainties, many of which are beyond our control. These statements are not guarantees of future performance, and actual results may differ materially. For a review of risk factors relating to these statements, please see our Form 10-K and subsequent 10-Q filings. And with that, I will turn it over to Dave.
David A. Hager - Devon Energy Corp.:
Thank you, Howard, and welcome, everyone. The last several months have been very active for Devon. We've continued to deliver strong operating results from our top tier North American resource plays, and we significantly outperformed Street expectations on our asset divestitures, which dramatically improved our financial strength. Overall it was a great quarter of execution for Devon. I will touch on three key messages today
Howard J. Thill - Devon Energy Corp.:
Thanks, Dave. And before we head to Q&A, I'll take just a few moments to address one of the most often-asked questions the IR team has received since our release, and that's our production profile. As we reached our sales values on divested assets in excess of our targets, there are certain assets we haven't sold and therefore we have rolled into the Devon go-forward look. Also, the production estimates we previously issued showed a full year of the divested assets, while we have already closed several and anticipate closing the remaining assets soon. The largest component of retained assets previously in the other category are select Midland assets, which have a relatively shallow decline rate and are high margin. And, to be perfectly clear, we see both U.S. and Canadian production stabilizing in the fourth quarter of 2016. And our projected activity levels at year-end 2016, we project top line production for our retained assets to stabilize by mid-year 2017, led by growth in the U.S. oil. A key contributor to mitigating gas and NGL declines in the first half of 2017 will be the Hobson Row development in the STACK that we anticipate bringing on in early 2017. And we expect to return to top line growth in the second half of 2017. Of course these projections are predicated on a expectation that we see strengthening in commodity prices which will allow us to add the three or four additional rigs in the fourth quarter of 2016 we disclosed in our 2Q earnings materials. So based on that level of activity at year end, you could expect an annual spend of somewhere around $1.6 billion. I hope this helps, and of course if you have more detailed modeling questions, Scott, Chris, or I are happy to visit with you after the call. With that, and heading to Q&A, I'd ask you to please limit yourself to one question and an associated follow-up. And you can reprompt as time permits. With that, Chrissy, we'll take our first question.
Operator:
Thank you. Our first question comes from the line of Pearce Hammond from Simmons Piper Jaffray. Your line is open.
Pearce Hammond - Simmons Piper Jaffray:
Good morning, and thanks for taking my questions.
Howard J. Thill - Devon Energy Corp.:
Morning, Pearce.
David A. Hager - Devon Energy Corp.:
Morning, Pearce.
Pearce Hammond - Simmons Piper Jaffray:
Howard, thanks for that color just now on the three rigs and then potentially on the additions and then potentially going to the seven rigs. Dave, as you look at the current forward strip to year-end and then look out to next year's pricing, do you think if those prices hold, that you would add those four rigs, or you'd need to see a little bit higher price to do that?
David A. Hager - Devon Energy Corp.:
No – yeah, great question, Pearce. We see that our cash flow at the current strip being approximately that, that we could add these rigs and live within cash flow. It varies, obviously, a little bit day-to-day, and we're in a little bit of a downturn right now. But we're approximately at the point where we'll be cash flow neutral. So we could add those rigs.
Pearce Hammond - Simmons Piper Jaffray:
Thank you. And then my follow-up is you highlighted on the 2017 guidance, or preliminary 2017 guidance, and I know it's not formalized at this point. But, on oil production, would you be able to hold Q4 2016 oil production flat and then grow from there? I mean, I'm trying to get a sense of what the – if you spent that $1.6 billion, what the oil production profile would look like, or would it continue to decline from the Q4 2016 levels until the middle part of next year and then start to come back up?
David A. Hager - Devon Energy Corp.:
No. We would essentially stabilize production at the Q4 levels, Q4 2016 levels, and then later in the year, it would start inclining, later in 2017.
Pearce Hammond - Simmons Piper Jaffray:
And that'd be stabilizing oil production at Q4 levels, but not total production?
David A. Hager - Devon Energy Corp.:
That's correct. That is oil production. As Howard said, we would stabilize the BOEs around mid-year 2017. So we'd still experience some decline. And where we're not investing in gas particularly, and to a lesser degree, the NGLs and then it would be stabilized by mid-year 2017 and then start an incline on the BOEs as well at the back half of 2017, and we'd be exiting at a significantly higher rate than mid-year.
Pearce Hammond - Simmons Piper Jaffray:
Excellent. Thank you so much, Dave.
David A. Hager - Devon Energy Corp.:
Yes.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Arun Jayaram from JPMorgan. Your line is open.
Arun Jayaram - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Yeah. My first question, Dave, is to ask you about the maintenance CapEx number. You'd previously set about a $2 billion number to keep production flat on a BOE basis. And now you're signaling $1.6 billion. I wondering if you could maybe highlight what's driven that pretty meaningful reduction in maintenance CapEx as we think about 2017.
David A. Hager - Devon Energy Corp.:
Yeah, great question on that, Arun. Yeah, we're continuing to drive efficiencies in our business, internal efficiencies. We've talked about the 40% reduction in drilling and completion costs of about 50% – 50%-50% between lower service costs and internal efficiencies. I can tell you as we sit here today, we're finding even more internal efficiencies that are continuing to drive that maintenance capital lower, as well as the fact that we're exceeding the type curves on our wells. And so you combine the cost savings we're still finding with the fact that our wells – we're in the best parts of the best plays. And they're exceeding our expectations. So that's continuing to drive the maintenance capital down.
Arun Jayaram - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Great. And my follow-up, Dave, is on a pro forma basis, $4.6 billion in cash. It sounded like from the ops report, you'll use roughly $2 billion or so for debt reduction and $1 billion of the $3.2 billion in proceeds could be reinvested. Would you feel comfortable, for example, in 2017, if you feel good about oil in the low to mid-$50s of outspending by $1 billion or so to take some of these proceeds, just given how you have so much cash on the balance sheet?
David A. Hager - Devon Energy Corp.:
Well, we do think that – and we do have the other cash on the balance sheet from essentially the equity offering. We do feel that it's very important to maintain our investment-grade rating. And probably longer term, we'd still look at using some of those proceeds to pay down debt. But so we are at this point thinking that we want to live within cash flow. We said we'd start adding back activity if we had confidence prices were going be somewhere around $50. We have added back activity, or we're planning – we've added back some. We plan to add back more. If we do see prices sustain over $50, and gas prices, actually – the recovery in gas has helped out significantly as well with our cash flow. If we see gas prices sustain near the levels where they are now, we may be able to even add a little bit more activity in 2017, but that would be living within cash flow, though. So we don't see a significant cash flow outspend.
Arun Jayaram - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Great. Thank you very much.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Ed Westlake from Credit Suisse. Your line is open.
Edward G. Westlake - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker):
Two type curve questions, if I may. Obviously, let's start with the Bone Springs; you talk about some of the wells 50% ahead, Leonard 70% ahead. We just had OXY's presentation showing that 180-day cumes, I think from memory, are double on all their designs. So maybe just talk through what's the constraint on perhaps raising the overall type curve. It might just be that across the inventory you still have down-spacing, tests, et cetera. And then I have a question on the STACK.
Tony D. Vaughn - Devon Energy Corp.:
Ed, this is Tony Vaughn here, and I think you hit it right, is the activity and the number of new completions that we have brought on of late have been fairly small. But we're extremely pleased with all the performance that we have, especially in the Leonard. Not only are all the well results that we're making public in the Leonard well above our type curve; industry around us are really experiencing the same thing. And so we'll make these type curve adjustments both here and in STACK just as we get a little bit more comfortable with that and get a few more reps behind us. But really the operational performance of our new activity in both the Delaware and the STACK are well above our expectations on our current type curves.
Edward G. Westlake - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker):
Okay. And then on the STACK, what was the average lateral length of the Q2 results? Because obviously, again, exceeding type curve, but if you go to longer laterals, those should be more capital efficient.
Tony D. Vaughn - Devon Energy Corp.:
I think you're exactly right. Historically, industry has – we've got about 200 wells in the STACK play to date. And there's about 60% of those that are the long laterals on our well count, Ed. We have about – just under 50 wells that we operate, and we have about – just under 50% of those are long laterals. Difficult to put an arithmetic average on the full population of that, but it's probably somewhere around 6,000, 6,500 feet. But I'll tell you, a lot of the early wells that were drilled were in the appraisal mindset. They were also in the lease saving mindset. And now that we're getting a lot of that information behind us, being more comfortable with the subsurface, I think Devon is really look forward to optimizing our completions and our lateral lengths. And really the design that we're going forward is to use as many of the long laterals as possible.
David A. Hager - Devon Energy Corp.:
Yeah, and Ed, I'd just add, I think what Tony's saying here is a lot of the 10,000-footers that we drilled here were probably not as productive as we'd anticipate 10,000-foot laterals to be in the future. Some of those are wells that were drilled by Felix without the benefits of 3-D. And we had early completion designs that are not what we feel the optimum design. So even though there were some 10,000-footers in the mix, they were not of the quality we would anticipate from a go-forward basis.
Edward G. Westlake - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker):
Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Peter Kissel from Scotia Howard Weil. Your line is open.
Peter Kissel - Scotia Howard Weil:
Yes. Good morning, guys, and thanks for taking my questions. Just very quickly looking at 2017, you outlined the $1.6 billion bogey, if you will, on spending. But what sort of obligations do you have for spending above that $1.6 billion? Just trying to think about how much that could go up or down as you look to stay within cash flow.
David A. Hager - Devon Energy Corp.:
Well, we're totally flexible on that, Pete. We don't have any obligations. I think that's one of the great attributes of Devon, is we have essentially all of our acreage held by production. We have a minor amount in the Felix acquisition where we need to have some activity. But we're going to have way more activity than is required to get all our acreage held by production. We don't have any obviously long-term projects going on in the company, so we are totally flexible, as cash flow presents itself, as to ramping up activity. And of course, we don't like to think about it as much, but if prices do retreat, we have flexibility to decrease activity as well. So it is strictly driven by – we have the projects. We have as good of projects, we think, as anybody in the industry, being in the hearts of some of the best plays. It's just a matter of what cash flow is available to put against those projects.
Peter Kissel - Scotia Howard Weil:
Okay. And then one thing you guys have done a great job in the past of is kind of stack-ranking your returns of your given plays here. As the STACK has continued to look extremely good, the Delaware Basin looks extremely good, would you mind just dusting that off and reminding us where they all stand in order of preference? And maybe, ultimately, where does the PRB come into the mix looking into 2017 as you've grown to have a very big position there but very little activity?
Tony D. Vaughn - Devon Energy Corp.:
Pete, I think when – nothing's really changed there. If you look at the returns on a strip basis, we really haven't commented on the absolute number of that. But the returns that we see in the Parkman, the Delaware, the Eagle Ford, and the STACK play are all comparable to each other. If you look at the sensitivity to the number of locations that we have available, that does change. And so if you look in the Parkman, we've done some of the best return work we've done there, but the inventory is not as deep and as robust as it is in the Delaware and the STACK play. So really all four of those plays are ones that we've got the flexibility and the ability to drive value for, which really presents an opportunity for us, I think, to prosecute and to understand the subsurface even better while still getting a lot of meaningful and competitive returns.
David A. Hager - Devon Energy Corp.:
Of the four, Pete, the Powder River Basin is the most sensitive to oil prices, because it's about 90% light oil. And so when we're – earlier in the year after we did the acquisition, with prices down mid-$30s or so it wasn't competing for capital. But as we get back over $50 a barrel, the economics on that improve dramatically because of the high oil cuts there. And so that's what puts it into the – it's very sensitive, but it puts us back up into one of the top-tier plays when we get a $50-plus environment.
Peter Kissel - Scotia Howard Weil:
Great. Thanks, Dave, and thanks, Tony, as well.
David A. Hager - Devon Energy Corp.:
Not as deep in inventory. But, still, good economics at the well level.
Peter Kissel - Scotia Howard Weil:
Great. Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Charles Meade from Johnson Rice. Your line is open.
Charles A. Meade - Johnson Rice & Co. LLC:
Good morning, Dave, and to the rest of your team there.
David A. Hager - Devon Energy Corp.:
Hi, Charles.
Charles A. Meade - Johnson Rice & Co. LLC:
Thank you. I apologize if I'm belaboring this point a bit, but I'd like to just see if I could distill some of the comments you've made on this call. The $1.6 billion number, that was really useful for what you could do, but I'd like to try to understand or make sure I understand what really is driving your appetite for what you actually would choose to do. So I think I heard you say you're going to spend within cash flow regardless of where the commodity prices go. But is there a scenario where you just wouldn't have the appetite to drill more in the case where – or you wouldn't have an appetite to add rigs if the commodity price went down?
David A. Hager - Devon Energy Corp.:
Well, we look at – let me try to clarify. There's really two things that we look at when we determine our capital allocation and the levels of capital. One would be the returns on – at the project level. And so we compare projects across the entire company, take into account any sort of operational considerations, any sort of limitations, and then we fund the highest-return projects across the company. We do that to the extent that we can live within cash flow. And so that's the second step of the process, is what is our cash flow going to be? And I've said the $1.6 billion is – and again, prices are moving around every day, so you can't – you can rerun these numbers every day and get a slightly different answer. But it is approximately the level at which we can live within cash flow in 2017 at the current strip and fund the top tier projects that we have identified with the nine rigs that we could be adding by the end of the year. And we plan to add up to that nine-rig level unless we see a significant change in commodity prices between now and then.
Charles A. Meade - Johnson Rice & Co. LLC:
Right. That's helpful, Dave. And I imagine these moves in the commodity prices are even more fun for you guys than they are for us. But -
David A. Hager - Devon Energy Corp.:
We're having a barrel of laughs.
Charles A. Meade - Johnson Rice & Co. LLC:
If I could ask a question on the Delaware Basin, you guys introduced this total reservoir access concept. Does that – that's new this quarter, but one of the things that I think has been a challenge out particularly, as I understand, in your part of the Delaware Basin has been extending the standard-length 5,000-foot laterals out to 10,000-foot laterals. Is that a correct perception that it's harder than other places to get to the 10,000-foot laterals? And does that interact or play some part in your TRAC concept?
David A. Hager - Devon Energy Corp.:
Charles, about a third of our position or our footprint in the Delaware Basin will accommodate the long laterals. It's a little bit tougher to put those together as you move north in Lea and Eddy County in our footprint, but in the southern portion of this where this new superpad or TRAC concept would be utilized in 2017, it's a little easier to do that. And so I think what we're trying to describe here is a concept when you start thinking about having all of the stacked pays that we have both here and in the STACK asset in Oklahoma, there's going to be a more creative and efficient way to develop our surface facilities. And so we're walking into this with this concept. It provides us a lot of flexibility as we grow. It also allows us to have flexibility as the business environment changes. But for the most part, we're going to, through the permitting process, to achieve or get approval for really more of a field development concept. And then past that we'll be left to get individual APDs by well as we choose to develop that. So you're right about our footprint. It's a little bit less contiguous on the north end of our position. But in the south end of Lea and Eddy, it should be very well suited for this type of a concept.
Tony D. Vaughn - Devon Energy Corp.:
The other thing that's so great about it, too, Charles, is if you – and we showed it on the maps that we put it into our investor presentations – that in particularly the southern parts of Lea and Eddy counties, we just have so many prospective zones. As we said, we have up to nine prospective zones between the Delaware Sands, the Bone Spring, Leonard, and the Wolfcamp. And so we are still doing appraisal work determining how many wells per section in an individual zone and how many of these zones in a vertical sense also can be developed in any one geographic location. But the numbers you start seeing start boggling the mind sometimes, I would say, with how many wells you could have an on individual section. We're hesitant to put the numbers out there until we finish more appraisal work. But there could be just a tremendous amount of resource that we're developing on each section out there. And that's what's necessitated this superpad concept to figure out – it's great to have that resource, but then how are you actually going to develop that resource? And that's what's put that into play. It's a really exciting future, both in the Delaware Basin and in the STACK play, because of this.
Charles A. Meade - Johnson Rice & Co. LLC:
That's helpful color, Tony and Dave. I appreciate it.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Doug Leggate from Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Your line is open.
Doug Leggate - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Thanks. Thanks, everybody. Good morning.
Tony D. Vaughn - Devon Energy Corp.:
Good morning, Doug.
Doug Leggate - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Dave, I want to make sure we're understanding this maintenance capital issue right, because the numbers sound – if my math is right, you're basically indicating you can hold production flat at an oil price in the mid to high $40s. I've been checking through (29:52) all the numbers. Is that directionally where you're headed?
David A. Hager - Devon Energy Corp.:
Well -
Doug Leggate - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Go ahead. I was going to tell you how I get there, but (30:02) -
David A. Hager - Devon Energy Corp.:
Yeah, I think that may be a little bit lower than where we're at. And I don't want to get into – I guess, Doug, I appreciate your question. I'm struggling a little bit to get into the details of that right now.
Doug Leggate - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Let me walk you through very quickly, Dave, how I get there.
David A. Hager - Devon Energy Corp.:
Okay.
Doug Leggate - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Previously, you said $40 was your CapEx breakeven this year. But that included the contribution from Access of about $800 million. So your sensitivity is about $80 million per dollar. And previously, you had said that you would hold flat at about $60. So when I work through all those numbers, it kind of implies $1.6 billion is somewhere in the mid to high $40s.
David A. Hager - Devon Energy Corp.:
Yeah, I think the big thing that's changed, off the top of my head here, Doug, is that gas prices have gone up significantly. And so that has provided significant incremental cash flow to us, as well as some improvement on the NGL side as well. So it's probably less a product of oil prices – the breakeven – maintenance capital on oil prices going down as it is the fact that our assumptions around what gas prices we can achieve, along with the oil, has allowed higher cash flow to allow us to keep production flat.
Doug Leggate - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
That makes a ton of sense. Okay. Thanks for clarifying. My follow-up is really going back to the STACK and the move to 10,000-foot wells. Obviously, you've partnered with Continental on a bunch of those wells. What do you think the costs are that you can deliver these wells at? And I guess this is a related question; what's holding you back from moving up your type curve, given what you're seeing from others in the play?
Tony D. Vaughn - Devon Energy Corp.:
Doug, we're finding that the well costs vary quite dramatically from the shallow eastern portion of the field all the way across to the southwest portion of where Continental is, as you mentioned. We're finding that we can drill the wells for about $5.5 million per well with the two-string design on the eastern half of the field. If we have to add a third string as we go past kind of a dividing line that separates the east from the west, add that third string, it adds about $1 million. And then as we go from a 5,000-foot lateral up to a 10,000-foot lateral, that's about $1 million to $1.5 million incremental on top of that. So that might give you a range in the cost as we work across that field. We continue to see positive results in our well performance from the oily section in the northeast to the little bit – the gassier, more volatile as you move into the central portion of the field. But overall, Doug, when you put all the attributes together, we still believe that we are in the heart of the high-return portion of the field. We think all those attributes really lead to what will be the most commercial development going forward for all the competitors there.
Doug Leggate - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
And, Tony, just on the type curve, is it just a matter of waiting on more well results?
Tony D. Vaughn - Devon Energy Corp.:
It is. From an operational perspective, it's nice to see almost – virtually every well result that we have is not in the type curve. It's well above the type curve. So we're going to modify that with performance. But we have been pleasantly pleased. And one of the things I wanted to point out on the STACK play in general, that while there's a lot of variables that go into the subsurface description of this, from depth, from pressure, to changing fluid compositions, to changing thickness by zone, a lot of variables are going into that. But I've got to tell you, the predictability of the results is very narrow. And we still believe the P10 to P90 range in the 90-day IP is about 2.4, which is extremely tight for a fairly young play. And so while there's a lot of variables that are changing out there, we think the predictability of the play is really unusually good in comparison to a lot of the resource plays that we've been involved in.
Doug Leggate - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Appreciate the answers, guys. Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Scott Hanold from RBC Capital Markets. Your line is open.
Scott Hanold - RBC Capital Markets LLC:
Yeah, thanks. I was wondering if I could ask a question on the STACK. Obviously you highlight the great performance in the well results you've had in addition to your massive acreage position. You all are producing around 90,000 a day there, but when you step back and look at it – and I'm assuming you've kind of generalized some of the numbers – but where do you think that ultimately could grow to? How big is the prize here on your acreage there?
David A. Hager - Devon Energy Corp.:
Scott, I think when we did the acquisition analysis, we had a little bit of a narrative that we were trying to visualize what that would look like as well. And we think with our position, and the Woodford continues to expand. The well performance gets larger. We're seeing more resource potential in the Meramec and the Osage, but also underneath the Meramec, we're seeing more potential with the Woodford. We believe that we can probably push up north of 150,000 towards 200,000 BOEs per day as all these zones continue to be de-risked and incorporated into our development plans. And, of course a lot of that, Scott, is really contingent on the commodity price environment that we're in and the pace of activity that we can prosecute that large resource base.
Scott Hanold - RBC Capital Markets LLC:
Okay. That's great color. And my follow-up is on the Eagle Ford. Obviously getting a lot of less attention right now. I'm curious on where it could fit into your long-term portfolio, especially considering your operating partner appears to be de-emphasizing onshore development at this point. How do you look at that? And if I could add a question to that, if your partner decided to, let's say, to exit the Eagle Ford, what would your reaction be? What would Devon do?
David A. Hager - Devon Energy Corp.:
Well, that's – appreciate the question, Scott. I don't think it's probably appropriate for us to comment on hypothetical situations there. But the Eagle Ford, we've had some tremendous results. And, again, we have a position there that is really like we want to do in all of our plays. It's in the best of one of the best plays in onshore North America. And if you look at the historical well results that we've delivered out there, we have a large proportion of the best wells that have been drilled in the play. So we certainly have liked our position. Right now, we're just in a position where, given the capital constraints that we had earlier in the year, ourselves and our partner, that we decreased drilling activity significantly. And along with that, then, the completion activity. We thought we were going to resume completion activity here in Q3. It's been pushed back, it looks like, about one quarter now. So that's, I guess, a very short-term challenge. But, frankly, it's going help us a little bit in 2017 as some of those volumes get pushed out of 2016 into 2017. So I don't think it's a significant event towards the long-term strategy of the Eagle Ford. We still see some high-return type opportunities in the Eagle Ford. We are maturing our way through the best part of the inventory right now. But we also are seeing some upside from the diamond pattern that we described in the operations report, which was really a – staggered laterals in the lower Eagle Ford, along with a upside in the upper Eagle Ford. And so we still think there's some upside that exists to the resource out there. Albeit it doesn't have the – and we knew it at the time of the acquisition – it just doesn't have the running room that we see now in the Delaware and the STACK play. So – but we still like it very much, and we'll just have to see how things develop beyond that.
Scott Hanold - RBC Capital Markets LLC:
I appreciate the response. Thanks.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Evan Calio from Morgan Stanley. Your line is open.
Evan Calio - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
Hey. Good afternoon, guys, and thanks always for the color.
David A. Hager - Devon Energy Corp.:
Sure.
Evan Calio - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
My first question is a follow-up on the Meramec. Given your understanding and the success of the Alba pad, (39:17) what do you guys think is the ultimate limit here for development spacing? And what size pilot program will you need to change your development assumptions off of four (39:38)? And should we expect that in those 4Q results, given your – and industry pilots?
Tony D. Vaughn - Devon Energy Corp.:
Evan, we've commented that we were testing update wells per section in a single interval. We're getting a lot of good data from the pilots in now, so we've seen our results on the Born Free, which gave us confidence that we had the ability to prosecute the zones on top of each other with no problem. The Alma spacing test helped us understand that five wells per section is not dense enough, even in today's commodity price environment. We're getting some information in right now on the pump house, which is a seven wells per section, and we'll be able to give you a little bit more feel for that. One of the pilots that we got some early data on was what we called the Skipper pilot, (40:42) and that was an eight well per section, or almost an eight well per section. And there we're highly encouraged that eight wells will work in the right commodity price environment. And it probably will work as technology continues to improve and we can improve our frac or completion designs and maintain a more complex near-wellbore frac. So the four (41:08) that we initially commented on, when we did the acquisition is light, and we think we're at least at six (41:17) if not heading north of that right now. And so that information – the pilots are coming in. We'll have about another three pilots showing us some information in Q3. Some more in the first quarter of 2017. But we're starting to get comfortable with the areas that we're going go into a full development on. And, again, we'll use this TRAC concept in the STACK development as well. And we think we'll have the ability to prosecute up to, roughly, 27 wells in a section as all these zones continue to work. So the play's working really well, and the pilot data is all positive and leading us towards our development plan.
Evan Calio - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
That's all really helpful information. My second question, you guys significantly increased your Barnett refrac type curve. Should we read this as the play is progressing closer to the point where you'll be willing to monetize a portion of your acreage position, given that you can get then paid for that refrac potential?
David A. Hager - Devon Energy Corp.:
Well, we like our position. As we said, our transformation is complete. We like our portfolio the way it looks right now. We are always – my kind of flippant expression in all this is we like all our assets, but we're not in love with any of them. So we certainly are – we like where we are with everything. We have no current plans to do anything with the Barnett or any of our other assets, but that's not to say we aren't always thinking at the same time. If there's some way that we can improve our results as a company, we'll think about it. But I can tell you there's nothing right now that says we're going to divest. No current plans around divestiture or anything in the Barnett.
Evan Calio - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
Thanks, guys. Good update today. Shoot.
David A. Hager - Devon Energy Corp.:
Yeah, while you're listening in, Evan, I took a look at your write-up this morning and just wanted to make sure I clarify a couple of things in there. But one is the – I think you heard me make some comments there about the predictability of our results in STACK. And so while it's not going to be uniform across the play, it is extremely predictable. And, again, there's a note about the debate regarding our acreage position and whether or not it falls in the overpressured window. And I think you may have been – I think the industry may have been led to believe that there's a north-south line, that to the east of that it's underpressured and to the west of that it's overpressured. That's not the case, as all of us that work the subsurface data understand, and if you look in the isobar map, you can clearly see that the far northeast is normal pressure, but it quickly goes into about 0.5 psi per foot and gradually moves into about 0.7, 0.75 psi per foot to the southwest. So just want to clear it up. In our mind, there's no debate about whether or not we're in the overpressure window or not.
Evan Calio - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
No, that's helpful, and I did pick up on your predictability comments early in the call, and I appreciate that.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of David Tameron from Wells Fargo. Your line is open.
David R. Tameron - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
Hi, morning. Just along those lines, just in the ops stuff that you talked a little bit about the Meramec and some – I guess you used the word "variability." So that's what I jumped on. But can you – or maybe that was my word – but can you just talk about the Meramec? And I know you've alluded to it a little bit; can you just give us more color as to what you're referring to the ops update?
David A. Hager - Devon Energy Corp.:
I'm not sure what your specific question is, David. Could you repeat it?
David R. Tameron - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
Yeah, just – I just pulled up to the page. It says IP and well costs can vary significantly across the play. And we've heard others talk about the variability of the Meramec, and so maybe the better question is can you just talk about the Meramec, how you see it playing out across the play?
David A. Hager - Devon Energy Corp.:
Well, I think what Tony is trying to say here – I'll try my words.
David R. Tameron - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
Okay.
David A. Hager - Devon Energy Corp.:
– is that there is variability, but it's predictable variability. So you aren't going to necessarily get the same well results across the entire play, but the variability of what you would expect in a given part of the play is very low given the phase of maturity that we're in, in the play overall.
Tony D. Vaughn - Devon Energy Corp.:
Yeah, Dave, just to elaborate, what Dave mentioned is as you characterize the reservoir, there's a lot of variation in the reservoir thickness by zone. There's a lot of difference in the fluid content as you move from northeast to southwest. The bottomhole pressure changes, as I just mentioned, from east to west. So there's a lot of variation in that. The actual total depth to get the wells down varies from the east to the west dramatically. But, as Dave mentioned, the results that we're seeing as an industry are pretty darn tight. And the only place that we haven't seen a predictable result has really been in the far southwest, when we were – and we need a few more data points to understand the gas versus oil content there. There was a little bit of variability in that. But for the most part, everything that we're seeing in the core of the field, especially in our footprint, the predictability is extremely tight.
David R. Tameron - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
Okay. No, that's helpful. And then back to the Barnett. If you start thinking about $3.25 gas or $3.50 gas – or what's the magic level at which, just on a returns basis that that play would start to compete with capital as far as you think about 2017, 2018?
Tony D. Vaughn - Devon Energy Corp.:
I'll tell you, it's got commercial returns today. As we have done all of our vertical refracs, we know that those are about at cost of capital, if not just a bit above. And the horizontal refracs are getting much more predictable, and we know those are at cost of capital and above. Really it's more of a question, David, about how competitive that is in the overall portfolio. So as commodity prices increase, a lot of our other opportunities get more attractive as well. But that's a real opportunity for the company going forward in the future. And the materiality of that is we got about 3,000 wells out there that have the ability for us to go back into them. So -
David R. Tameron - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
Okay -
Tony D. Vaughn - Devon Energy Corp.:
– something that -
David R. Tameron - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
Sorry – yeah, sorry, didn't mean to interrupt you. So just to clarify when you start talking, 2017 right now, the strip's at $3.15, $3.16. So at that level, you're getting commerciality?
Tony D. Vaughn - Devon Energy Corp.:
We are. We can get cost of capital returns.
David R. Tameron - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
Okay.
David A. Hager - Devon Energy Corp.:
Well above cost of capital returns at those kind of prices. The challenge is trying to compete on a super team here. We got a bunch of all-stars in here, and it's a pretty good player, but it's not going to see the ball as much as – we got the Golden State problem going here.
David R. Tameron - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
Thanks for the re-frame. I appreciate it.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of John Herrlin from Société Générale. Your line is open.
John P. Herrlin - SG Americas Securities LLC:
Yeah, hi. Just have a question on completion designs. One, can you define your hybrid completion? And, two, with the STACK and also the Woodford, you're putting in a lot more sand. Do you have any sense of what you think the economic limit is for how much profit you can put in?
Tony D. Vaughn - Devon Energy Corp.:
I can give you a little bit of a feel. I'll remind us of an experience that we had in, I believe it was mid-2014, when we started increasing the sand loads in our Delaware completions and we really ran up to – from about 600 pounds per lateral foot in early 2014 up to about 3,000 pounds per lateral foot through 2015. And, at the same time, that information gave us a good matrix or a good feel for the performance change in that design, but it also helped us understand the matrix associated with the commodity price environment. So we have backed off in the Delaware from that 3,000 pounds per lateral foot. We think we can get the most commercial returns in the current business environment done at about 1,500 to 2,000. It kind of varies across the field. So that's the way we think about it. And then if you move over into the Anadarko Basin, we're using a slick water job in our Woodford type work, and we continue to increase our proppant loads there. So we're up to about 2,000 pounds per lateral foot. And after drilling and completing over 800 wells, this last large pad that we brought on had the best results that we've ever had in the Cana-Woodford play. As we think about the STACK play right now, we're using a hybrid type job, so we've got a little bit of a gel with – the total fluid is more dominated with the slick water. So we're continuing to experiment and modify with our completion designs, but we are increasing our sand loads there up to about 2,600 to 2,750 pounds per lateral foot and enjoying increasing success there. So, John, we're getting a lot of this information, and we're really all about trying to make the highest return per well, not necessarily just to pump large jobs. So getting a lot of data out there, got a lot of data in our library and we pump a lot of slick water jobs. But in a few places like the Eagle Ford and in STACK right now, we're using a hybrid fluid.
John P. Herrlin - SG Americas Securities LLC:
Does the hybrid take longer to clean up?
Tony D. Vaughn - Devon Energy Corp.:
I don't believe it does, John. Probably have to get a little bit more feel from our technical guys, but I think our hybrid fluids are breaking with temperature, and I don't think there's a problem there. So just hadn't heard of that complaint.
John P. Herrlin - SG Americas Securities LLC:
Great. Thank you.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Ryan Todd from Deutsche Bank. Your line is open.
Ryan Todd - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Great. Thanks, gentlemen. Maybe a couple smaller ones, could you talk about the infrastructure buildout in STACK in the Permian, how it matches up with the potential rig count additions in the second half of 2016 and 2017? And any potential limitations or bottleneck as you look forward over the next couple years?
Tony D. Vaughn - Devon Energy Corp.:
If you start in the Delaware, one of the things that has really changed over, I'd say, the last eight to 12 months, Ryan, has been the buildout of the infrastructure. And, as you noticed, some notes in our operating report, the majority of our work now, we have power grid systems to all of our wells. We also have the majority of our fluid being transported by pipe. And so the infrastructure – and you can really see that as our LOE per BOE cost has dramatically dropped from over $16 a barrel down to the $8 type number over that period of time. So the infrastructure we built out in the Delaware Basin especially is there. There's no local takeaway issues associated with our work that we anticipate doing in the next couple years. So really the Delaware has now caught up to that infrastructure and the returns are good. The cost to drill and complete wells is down, and certainly the monthly recurring lease operating cost is down. And if you move over into the STACK play, the Cana-Woodford part of that is very well developed out. We got a great water system there. We're building out our concept for the Meramec play right now. That's in the design phase. We're working very closely with our midstream partner, EnLink, and they're helping us understand what the long-term takeaway opportunities might be. But, again, we don't believe that's really a question in our current thought process for our current development until probably 2019. So we're working toward that. We'll have the appropriate solution identified. We'll be able to communicate that to you. And just a plug for the guys at the EnLink, I think we highlighted essentially the flat production in the Barnett from Q1 to Q2, and with no capital, and it's pretty amazing some of the work that our team has done. That team consists of both Devon people and our EnLink team. And so there's been great, thoughtful work on line pressure reductions, optimizing plunger lifts, and the artificial lift systems out there. So really having that partnership with EnLink is really providing a lot of value across our asset base.
Ryan Todd - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
That's perfect. Thanks. And then maybe one logical follow-up on that, you've seen significant downward pressure in both LOE and G&A unit cost over the past 18 months. I mean, how much more room do you have to run there in terms of pushing costs lower in the Permian? You've gone from kind of $15 to $8 a barrel over the past six quarters. Can that go to $6 or $4 or further? Any thoughts on what we should expect over the next 12-plus months?
David A. Hager - Devon Energy Corp.:
Yeah, I'll start off with this answer then hand it over to Tony. But on the G&A side of it, the bulk of the reductions that we're seeing there were related to reductions in head count, and we're just now starting to see all of that flow through the financials. But we have the staffing in place that we are comfortable with to execute the program now, and also we could handle somewhat higher levels of activity as well, up to around 15 to 20 operated rigs. So we certainly don't see a reduction in head count anymore, as long as we maintain this path to recovery that we're on right now. And we certainly have the staffing in place in order to execute our capital program. And I'll turn it over to Tony to talk a little bit more on the LOE and where we may be able to go.
Tony D. Vaughn - Devon Energy Corp.:
Ryan, I think there's a real passionate push in the company right now to manage cost, and it's – while we don't have much of a capital program in comparison to what we had in 2014, a lot of our attention here in the last 12 months has really been towards managing our base business, and we've stood up an operations excellence group here that really has done a great job facilitating this focused effort to drive costs down. All of our men and women in the field locations are doing a good job participating with us. So as we have built out our water handling capacity across all of our fields, we have more of our water going through pipe. We own more SWD capacity than we've had in the past. As we've brought power grid system into our business, we've been able to release probably about close to 300 rental generators just in the Delaware Basin alone. Really good, thoughtful work there. And we have a supply chain group that is closely linked in with our operating team. And they're doing everything from reducing compression costs through renegotiating some contracts, doing the same thing for chemicals. We're working on the water that we do have to transport and handle, where work does cost in. So we got a great, focused effort going on with our supply chain, all of our field people. And, again, it's something that is really passionate in the company right now. Where we go from there, I mean, you can start looking at some of the costs, and they start flattening out just in terms of the price per unit. But we're still working on this, and we believe a lot of the wins still left to get are just through attention to detail and through designing changes and through managing our business even better than we have in the past.
Ryan Todd - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Great. Thank you.
Operator:
That's all the time we have left for questions. I will now turn the call back over to Mr. Howard Thill for any closing remarks.
Howard J. Thill - Devon Energy Corp.:
Well, we appreciate everyone's attention. We apologize we couldn't get to everybody in the hour, but happy to follow up with you after this. If we can do anything else for you, please let us know, and have a great day.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude today's conference call. Thank you for joining us today. You may now disconnect your lines.
Executives:
Howard J. Thill - Devon Energy Corp. David A. Hager - Devon Energy Corp. Tony D. Vaughn - Devon Energy Corp. Thomas L. Mitchell - Devon Energy Corp. Darryl G. Smette - Devon Energy Corp.
Analysts:
Edward George Westlake - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker) Subash Chandra - Guggenheim Securities LLC Evan Calio - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC Doug Leggate - Bank of America Merrill Lynch Arun Jayaram - JPMorgan Securities LLC John P. Herrlin - SG Americas Securities LLC Charles A. Meade - Johnson Rice & Co. LLC Brian Singer - Goldman Sachs & Co. Paul Sankey - Wolfe Research LLC James Sullivan - Alembic Global Advisors LLC David R. Tameron - Wells Fargo Securities LLC Ross Payne - Wells Fargo Securities LLC Derrick Whitfield - GMP Securities LLC Jamaal Dardar - Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co.
Operator:
Welcome to Devon Energy's First Quarter 2016 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. This call is being recorded. I'd now like to turn the call over to Mr. Howard Thill, Senior Vice President of Communications and Investor Relations. Sir, you may begin.
Howard J. Thill - Devon Energy Corp.:
Thank you, Melissa, and I'd like to wish everyone a good morning as well and welcome you to Devon Energy's third quarter earnings conference call. Hope you've had a chance to review our first quarter earnings release, which includes our forward-looking guidance as well as our detailed ops report. Also on the call today are Dave Hager, President and CEO, Tony Vaughn, Chief Operating Officer, Tom Mitchell, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, and a few other members of our senior management team. Finally, I'll remind you that comments and answers to questions on this call will contain forecast plans, expectations, and estimates which are forward-looking statements under US securities law. These comments and answers are subject to a number of assumptions, risks, and uncertainties, many of which are beyond our control. These statements are not guarantees of future performance and actual results might differ materially. For a review of risk factors relating to these statements, please see our Form 10-K. With that, I will turn the call over to Dave.
David A. Hager - Devon Energy Corp.:
Thank you, Howard, and welcome, everyone. There is no question that low commodity prices in the first quarter led to tough conditions for Devon and the industry. However, we responded to these challenges by delivering another outstanding operating performance as we continue to take the appropriate steps to deliver significant cost reductions and accelerate efficiency gains across our portfolio. These successful efforts resulted in us delivering production at the high end of our guidance, driving down both operating costs and G&A down more than 20% year-over-year, and increasing our liquidity to $4.6 billion. This strong execution has improved our full year 2016 outlook with us raising our 2016 production targets by 3%; importantly, without any incremental capital requirements. Additionally, our cost saving initiatives are well on their way to preserve more than $1 billion of cash flow during the year, and commodity prices are running above our base budgeting expectations. Even with a meaningful increase in commodity prices from first quarter lows, our disciplined approach to this environment remains unchanged. Our top priority is to protect our balance sheet strength by balancing spending requirements with cash flow, and we see no compelling reason to accelerate production at these improved yet still low pricing points. As I touched on earlier, our 2016 E&P capital program remains unchanged and the activity we'll deploy is designed to maximize cash flow generation and maintain operational continuity in our top resource plays. For us, to consider adding additional activity, we would need to make additional progress on our asset sales, have the ability to hedge at sustainably higher commodity prices, and have comfort that we can secure services and supplies at rationale costs. When these conditions are met, we have no shortage of attractive investment opportunities across our resource-rich portfolio. Our core assets are concentrated in North America's best basins, and we are getting the most out of these assets with best-in-class execution that has consistently exceeded peer results through higher production rates, lower capital costs, and reduced operating expenses. While there are several variables to consider when allocating capital, it is likely that we would initially accelerate activity with our top two franchise assets, the STACK and Delaware Basin. Between these two world-class resource plays, we have access to over 1 million net acres and thousands of low-risk development opportunities that are delivering rates of return that rank among the very top of our asset portfolio. Another strategic imperative for Devon in 2016 is the work we're doing to improve our financial strength through the monetization of $2 billion to $3 billion of non-core assets. In April, we took an important step towards that goal with the announced sale of our Mississippian assets in northern Oklahoma for $200 million. The data rooms for our remaining non-core upstream assets have been open since early March, and bids are expected by the end of the second quarter. The interest in our Midland, east Texas, and Granite Wash asset packages has been quite strong, and we have great confidence in our ability to sell these assets at attractive prices in 2016. In Canada, we're also making progress toward the sale of our 50% interest in Access Pipeline. Negotiations are ongoing with discussions centered on contract related considerations. Given the multi-decade lifespan of heavy oil assets, it is important that we judiciously work through these contractual details to ensure both parties are comfortable with the long-term relationship. Overall, we are encouraged by the direction of these conversations, and we still expect to announce a transaction in the first half of this year. Before we move to Q&A, I want to summarize a few key messages from today's call. Even with the recent uptick in pricing, our top priority remains unchanged – maintain a strong balance. We are committed to balancing capital requirements with cash flow and enhancing our financial strengths by utilizing upstream asset sale proceeds to reduce debt. We are laser-focused on the controllable aspects of our business. This is evidenced by our outstanding operational performance in the first quarter and our continued cost control efforts. We have taken aggressive actions to position Devon not only to weather this downturn but to be positioned to take advantage of our world-class resource plays when market conditions incentivize higher activity levels. And as commodity prices recover, Devon has significant leverage to rising oil, natural gas and NGL prices. For every $1 increase in realized price on a Boe basis, Devon generates more than $200 million of incremental cash flow annually. Additionally, this $1 increase in realized price proportionately expands Devon's margins more than nearly every large producer in North America. Couple this with a catalyst-rich deleveraging of the balance sheet from the asset sales and upside from further delineation of the STACK play, Devon is extremely well-positioned for differential stock price performance. With that, I will turn the call back to Howard for Q&A.
Howard J. Thill - Devon Energy Corp.:
Thanks, Dave. To ensure that we get as many people as possible on the call, we'd ask you to please limit yourself to one question with an associated follow-up. You may re-prompt to ask additional questions as time permits. With that, Melissa, we're ready for the first question.
Operator:
Thank you. Your first question is from Ed Westlake from Credit Suisse. Your line is open.
Edward George Westlake - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker):
Yeah, I just wanted to start with the STACK update. You've said that the results are bigger, they're oilier and the down-spacing is more interesting, but, obviously, you're capital constrained in terms of the amount of cash that you can put there until perhaps the disposals are executed. So maybe just give us a sense of the type of news flow that you might be able to generate in terms of those three aspects, particularly EURs and down-spacing over the course of this year. Thank you.
David A. Hager - Devon Energy Corp.:
I think Tony Vaughn is going to take a stab at this, Ed.
Tony D. Vaughn - Devon Energy Corp.:
Good morning, Ed. As we continue to work our footprint in the STACK play, we overwhelmingly have a positive feel about the results that we see. And I think the operating report that we published last night continues to show that our results are above type curve expectations. The interesting thing about this, with a lot of rock and fluid and pressure variability across the play, in fact, Ed, the whole play is working from the far northeast to the southwest really well. But there's a lot of different characteristics of the play that are changing across that footprint. And if you look at the results that we've had just in the Devon footprint, our range of results have been very tight. Our P10 to P90 ratio is about 2.4, which is very indicative of a lower-risk development-type play. So, I think as we go forward, we'll continue to see optimization of our completion designs. We're changing the fluids, we're changing the proppant loads, we're changing the number of stages and tightening up on the per-cluster spacing, just like a lot of people in the industry are doing. So that will continue to optimize our results. We're also engaged in about six different pilots across our footprint, and four of those are being operated by Devon. We already have production data coming at us on two of those pilots that we commented on in the operations report. It's early, but the early indications are on a fairly conservative spacing on a single zone of five wells per section, which we're testing in the Alma, we didn't see interference on the frac work that we were doing. All the well rates are coming into the type curve if not better. We published a little bit of early information on the Born Free test, which was a staggered type test in the Meramec, and very positive there that we did not see the energy cross from one interval to the next. And ultimately, that would be spaced at about six wells per common zone, potentially 13 in the two that we're testing there. And we also have two additional pilots that we'll test seven and eight wells per section in a common interval. So I think, as the data flow comes in throughout the year, we'll get more information about spacing. We're participating in some other pilots from some of our non-operated partners there. They'll have information coming in. So, really, for the second half of 2016, I think that spacing question will start being a lot more clear. I think you'll continue to see our performance improve as we optimize the work that we do. But, right now, we're extremely pleased. And as you know, if you look at the location count there, it's just very deep for Devon. And this will be a driver for Devon's future for a long time.
Edward George Westlake - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker):
And then a quick follow-up on the disposals. The commodity prices have picked up. Has that changed the attitude from buyers, particularly perhaps on the E&P side?
David A. Hager - Devon Energy Corp.:
Well, Tom Mitchell can give you some more details on this. But I can tell you we're very pleased with where we are right now with the process. All indications have been positive so far. We're still in the middle of the process, but we're very confident of our ability to deliver in the range that we have put out there of the $2 billion to $3 billion. Tom, add to that?
Thomas L. Mitchell - Devon Energy Corp.:
Not a lot to add to that, Ed. It has been very – a lot of interest in the process, even more than we had expected and from strong parties, parties that are good for the money. So the commodity price environment has worked in our favor in that regard as well as the liquidity events that we had earlier in the year. So we're well positioned, I think, to do extremely well with the trades.
Edward George Westlake - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker):
Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Subash Chandra from Guggenheim. Your line is open.
Subash Chandra - Guggenheim Securities LLC:
Yeah, thanks. A follow up on the question specifically, maybe I missed it but, for shorthand, did you put out a EUR in the over pressured oil window?
David A. Hager - Devon Energy Corp.:
Subash, I think we've got a type curve, I'm looking for it right now, that we commented on at the time we acquired the Felix footprint. And we actually had two different type curves, one in the volatile oil window and one in the oil window. Roughly speaking, they're about – initial rates of about 1,500 Boes per day with an EUR of about 1,400 MBoes.
Subash Chandra - Guggenheim Securities LLC:
Okay. I can go back and take a look. My follow-up is the Q2 decline and, I guess, as we come off of Q1 production, basin by basin, a little bit more flavor, if you could, on where you expect to see it. And Canada has been surprisingly strong. I assume there was no royalty benefit, so how you see Canada performing for the rest of the year?
David A. Hager - Devon Energy Corp.:
Yeah. To give you an idea, we are seeing quarter-over-quarter oil decline here from our core oil of about 25,000 barrels a day. But I think the most important thing to understand is that when you look out for the second half of the year, we expect our oil production to be flat to slightly higher than the Q2 production as our completion activity resumes in the Eagle Ford and our Jackfish 2 facility ramps up to nameplate capacity. So it is a – and obviously, overall, we raised our production guidance, and so, overall, it's a very positive story. We may be seeing a slightly higher decline in Q2 than some of you may have expected just mainly because we have such high rate wells that we delivered, particularly in the Eagle Ford, in the last half of 2015 and with the lack of completion activity here earlier in the year as the completion crews left the field. But, overall, it's a very positive story. I think it may just have surprised a couple people that we're taking it in the second quarter. But the good news is, as commodity prices improve, hopefully, in the second half of the year, given that we raised our overall guidance, we'd be producing more than what was originally anticipated in the second half when prices will be higher. So, Tony, do you want to add some more detail to that?
Tony D. Vaughn - Devon Energy Corp.:
Yeah, just I think you said it well, Dave. Subash, if you go from Q1 to Q2, Dave commented that our total decline on oil will be about 25,000 barrels of oil per day. We actually have a turnaround schedule for Jackfish 2 in the second quarter, which will account for about 10,000 BOs per day. But if you look at the Delaware Basin and the STACK position on oil production, they're essentially flat over the last portion of the year, the second half of the year. So, as Dave mentioned, it's a positive story for the company. I think if you look and specifically talk about the Eagle Ford, you'll notice that we had outstanding results in the second half of 2014 and that carried into Q1 of 2015. I'm sorry. Second half of 2015 that carried into the first quarter of 2016. And if you go back and look at that, the pace of activity was about 50 IDs to 55 IDs per quarter. The number of wells we brought on in Q1 of 2016 was only 22 wells, and that happened to be early in the quarter. So, we ramped down activity along with working that work with a partner there. So, the Eagle Ford has taken a larger – projected to take a larger drop from Q1 of 2016 to Q2 of 2016. But, again, as we bring – we've taken a completion holiday there as we bring completion units back into the field in the latter part of Q2, we'll see that production stabilize from Q2 through Q4 in the Eagle Ford. Month to month, it's going to be pretty cyclical just depending on the pace of new wells that we bring on.
Subash Chandra - Guggenheim Securities LLC:
Thanks, guys.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Evan Calio from Morgan Stanley. Your line is open.
Evan Calio - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
Hi. Good morning, guys.
David A. Hager - Devon Energy Corp.:
Good morning.
Evan Calio - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
Let me just follow up on the prior question on the production profile as it relates to the Eagle Ford. How many of the 90 DUC inventory do you expect to complete from June until year-end?
Tony D. Vaughn - Devon Energy Corp.:
In the Eagle Ford, as I mentioned, we were completing about 50 wells to 55 wells per quarter. In Q1, it's about 22 wells and we'll take a holiday through Q2 of no new wells brought on in Q2, but then we'll see, roughly speaking, about 35 wells and about 15 wells in Q3 and Q4. So it's really lumpy. We've got two drilling rigs working in the field. And as we build up a little bit of inventory there, we will tend to work that down with one to one and a half frac crews and maintain a fairly flat DUC inventory from the beginning of the year to the end of the year, just be a little bit lumpy from month to month.
Evan Calio - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
And are those – those are firm plans with you and your partner? Do they depend upon the crude price or otherwise? I presume not, given your hedges.
Tony D. Vaughn - Devon Energy Corp.:
That's our current plan, but I just – I've got to point out to you that we're – right now, on the technical side, we're lockstep with BHP. We had the same thought process going forward. So I think that's the plan that we're going to execute on. And of course, if commodity prices change, we've got the ability to be flexible with that.
Evan Calio - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
Great. And what would the production decline from Eagle Ford look like with no additional wells or no additional completions in 2H?
Tony D. Vaughn - Devon Energy Corp.:
Well, I think if you look at it, our Q4 to Q4 decline just on the Eagle Ford just on oil is roughly about 30%. That doesn't include a lot of new IDs in the second half of the year. It'll be a little bit more than that. And I think we published in the past that our first year decline on Eagle Ford wells is very high. It's above 50% per year first and second year decline. So, as I mentioned, we had an aggressive activity schedule through 2015 and without continuing that pace of activity, we're just seeing a lot of fairly young immature wells in the high portion of their decline come on right now, and we're not having the new IDs to maintain that total flow rate.
David A. Hager - Devon Energy Corp.:
What Tony described to you as a first year decline rate of 50% for new wells and you would have a number of wells that are not on their first year of production. They'd be in the latter part of the decline curve. And so your number would be probably a little bit less than that on an overall basis.
Evan Calio - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
Great, guys. Appreciate the color. Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Doug Leggate from Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Your line is open.
Doug Leggate - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Thanks. Good morning, everybody.
David A. Hager - Devon Energy Corp.:
Good morning.
Doug Leggate - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Dave, you've talked in the past about – it's that horrible question about when do you go back to work. But you guys have been a little more specific about requiring the asset sales to be done pretty much irrespective of where the oil price goes. So I just wonder if I could ask you to kind of revisit your thoughts there. And obviously, it's all predicated on your confidence level in getting the asset sales done. So, do you go back to work in an oil price recovery before the asset sales are done or do the asset sales still have to come first?
David A. Hager - Devon Energy Corp.:
The asset sales still have to come first. And now, having said that, I recognize this is a show-me environment, and we understand that very well. But I reiterate our confidence in the asset sales that we are going to get those asset sales executed. Without going into a tremendous amount of detail of the discussions and negotiations, we think that that is something that is working very positively, and we're confident that we're going to get those done in the timeframe that we described. But that is the first priority is to make sure that we do that. After that, then there are a number of things we'll factor in to increasing our activities; commodity prices, capital costs, operating expenses, many more. But, directionally, you could look for us to start adding incremental activity when oil prices are $50 or higher. Now, that doesn't mean we go back from the two operated rigs to 20 operated rigs immediately at $50. That means we would start adding operated rigs at that point. I said during the comments that the most likely first place that we would add the rigs would be in the Delaware Basin and then the STACK play where, obviously, well results are just outstanding and amongst the best in the industry in both of those places. And so, we would incrementally add rigs as prices increase. But it would probably take $60 oil or more to really get back to a capital spend level of close to $2 billion versus the $1 billion we're at now, which would, really, with our maintenance capital sitting somewhere between $1.5 billion or $2 billion, that would allow us to flatten the production. Although, frankly, we're not – our number one priority is not just flattening the production on a 6:1 conversion rate. We're much more interested in, first, the financial strength of the balance sheet, and then, second, making sure that every dollar that we invest is generating strong economic returns. And we included a graph in the operations report that gives you a feel that, again, we have some of the – not only are we in some of the best plays in onshore North America, but we're in the heart of some of the best plays. We're in the core of the core of these plays. So, we certainly have, we think, as good of an economic opportunity as anybody out there. But, again, first, it's going to take the asset sales, second, starting adding rigs at $50, again, a small increment then, and then continuing to ramp up as prices increase into our strong plays.
Doug Leggate - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
I appreciate the full answer, Dave. Thank you. My second one's really a quick follow-up to Evan's question on the Eagle Ford. Obviously, your full year guidance presumably had the production for the trajectory that you've shown for the Eagle Ford baked in already. But you did mention in the prepared remarks or in the release that there was some planned downtime on infrastructure. I don't know if I missed that, but can you quantify what the volume impact is of that downtime in Q2 and whether or not it's meaningful? And I'll leave it there. Thanks.
David A. Hager - Devon Energy Corp.:
Yeah, there is a minor amount of planned downtime. It's probably on the order of a little less than 5,000 barrels a day overall, but that is part of the impact as well.
Doug Leggate - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Great. Thanks.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Arun Jayaram from JPMorgan. Your line is open.
Arun Jayaram - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Yeah, good morning. Perhaps, Tony, I was wondering if you could comment on just overall well results and returns that you're seeing in the over-pressured versus the normally pressured STACK and perhaps where Devon's well results from an operated and non-operated have been concentrated?
Tony D. Vaughn - Devon Energy Corp.:
Thanks for the question, Arun. I guess if I had to characterize the results that we're seeing, they're very consistent. If you look at our type curve of about that 1,300 Boes to 1,500 Boes per day, we've brought on about five operated wells and five non-operated wells. All of those are at the type curve or better. The footprint, again, when we look at all of the attributes of the STACK play, the project is working all across the play, but the attributes that describe the subsurface are drastically changing. And the rock composition changes from the northwest to the southeast, the pressure gradient for the whole play is largely over-pressured. It does tend to increase in pressure as you go to the southwestern portion of the field. And then as you move from the northeast to the southwest, you've got a changing fluid composition. All that's working across the field. If you look at ours, we're seeing type curve type results very consistently. I think the best completion we've brought on this quarter was about 2,100 Boes per day. So we're feeling pretty good about that. We find that the sweet spot that we've identified in our operating report for the STACK play has got the best combination of all those attributes which incorporate depth and cost to complete. So we think that's going to be the high-return portion of the development right now.
David A. Hager - Devon Energy Corp.:
One of the things we – what I'd probably just add in here, one of the things we tried to clarify by including a map in the operations report is that it's a gradational amount of over-pressure throughout the play. And there's a map, I think, on page seven that shows it very clearly that, essentially, all of our acreage is located in the over-pressured part of the play. It's just the degree to which it is over-pressured, and the degree to which it's over-pressured increases as you move from northeast to southwest. Now, as you move further to the northeast in our acreage position, you get more into the normal pressured oil window. That can work too. I think, frankly, Newfield has had some good results up there as well and very economic results. But, essentially, all of our acreage is in the over-pressured part of the window, it's just the degree to which it's over-pressured. So if you look at that map, I think that's helpful.
Arun Jayaram - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Okay. That's very helpful. And then just my follow-up is I was wondering if you could go through the staggered lateral testing in the Eagle Ford. Just maybe comment on that pilot and expectations going forward to develop the Eagle Ford using that spacing type of pattern.
Tony D. Vaughn - Devon Energy Corp.:
Well, we're encouraged. We drilled 25 wells on a staggered approach in the Lower Eagle Ford. We've got a 3D earth model there that the technical team has built, and we got an accurate description of where all the well bores have penetrated. And if you're just staying within the Lower Eagle Ford section, whether you're in the upper portion of that interval or the lower portion of that, the results have all been the same. So we have now incorporated the staggered approach into the Lower Eagle Ford, and results will be coming in on the 25 wells in the next couple of quarters. But early indications are that's extremely favorable. So, we're seeing reservoir pressures that would indicate that we're not seeing interference or influence from each of those wells. One thing that we're going to be testing in the last three quarters of this year will be how to incorporate the Upper Eagle Ford shale into that development. And there's not a lot of shale barriers between that Upper Eagle Ford and the Lower Eagle Ford section, so we're encouraged and I believe BHP is going to be supportive of this work as to pilot an Upper Eagle Ford shale completion along with our staggered approach in the Lower Eagle Ford. And that will be what we think will be ultimately the design that we will go forward for the remaining development of the resource base.
Arun Jayaram - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Okay. Thank you very much.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of John Herrlin from Société Générale. Your line is open.
John P. Herrlin - SG Americas Securities LLC:
Hi. One on the STACK. How gradational are the members vertically or how well defined are the various members between the upper and the lower? And will this affect – given the pressure gradients you've already discussed across your acreage, will you have to have kind of multiple pad development plans depending on where you are?
Tony D. Vaughn - Devon Energy Corp.:
John, I think we're getting – we've got a great description of the surface there, and a lot of it's through the vertical wells that had been drilled, a lot of it on the south end of the field have been through the 800 wells that we drilled in our Cana-Woodford project. But we've got a great earth model that we built. We continue to refine that with new data. I think the guys are very comfortable seeing five individual potential landing zones, three of those in the Upper Meramec, two in the lower. I think the technical team is very confident with that. A lot of the data to-date has been in what we call the Meramec 200 with some data in the Meramec 300. We think we have that well understood. The portions that I think us and the industry are needing to appraise would be the very upper member of the Meramec, what we call the Meramec 100, and also the lowest member in the Lower Meramec, which is the Meramec 500. And I think if you look at the pressure distribution across the footprint there, I think it's a gradational map. If you take an isobar map of that, it's nothing where you go from normal pressure to high pressure in a short distance. It's just a gradual trend from east to west. So, I think that's being incorporated. You'll handle that with three-string design on the western side of the field. On the shallow and east side of the field, you'll handle with a two-string design, so it will be a little cheaper activity on the east than the west. But it's nothing that's, I think, onerous in terms of the future development concept.
David A. Hager - Devon Energy Corp.:
John, I guess, just to add on, geologically, if you look at the logs, we have a good handle on where each of these zones has developed. That's not really the issue. The issue is more just how productive are each of these zones, what spacing can you do in each of these zones? And, conceptually, if I can just broaden the discussion just a little bit, to give you guys an idea of what we're doing both in the STACK play and the Delaware Basin, we have so many zones of STACK play in there in both of these areas that we are conducting as many of these pilots as we can early on to assess how to properly develop these areas. It would be real easy right now to just skip the pilots, go in, drill everything on four wells per section in one zone, produce wells with great rates of return, and then wake up three years from now and you've blown through your inventory. That's not what we're doing. We are taking a much more thoughtful approach of understanding the productivity and the spacing in each of these zones so that we can develop each of these areas rather than what may be – and I'm talking very conceptually here – what may be instead of four wells to five wells per section in single zone, you could have many more wells per section, perhaps 20 wells, 25 wells, 30 wells per section after you understand the proper spacing in each of these intervals and how many of these you can develop within the same area. And so that's why it's, we think, is appropriate at this time of lower activity to really do these spacing tests and really understand, because it has a huge impact on the ultimate resource that's going to be recovered in each of these plays and on the value associated with each of these plays. And so that's conceptually where we're trying to go with all these tests.
John P. Herrlin - SG Americas Securities LLC:
Thanks. That's what I was hoping to hear. My next question is on Canada. Obviously, Jackfish 2 turning around, but with the fires do you anticipate having any issues with what's going on in Fort McMurray now? And that's it for me.
David A. Hager - Devon Energy Corp.:
John, I think just got a report from our operating team last day, and most of the activity that you're talking about is north of Fort McMurray, so there's nothing that we're worried about. We watch it every summer and it's been a dry spring, so that area has tuned into it, and we have turnaround scheduled again in June of this year, so we'll make sure that we're free and clear before we start that activity
John P. Herrlin - SG Americas Securities LLC:
Thanks.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Charles Meade from Johnson Rice. Your line is open.
Charles A. Meade - Johnson Rice & Co. LLC:
Good morning, gentlemen. If I could ask another question on the STACK, I'm curious, after you get your asset sales done, if it would also be an option to perhaps clean up some of the holes in your STACK position. If you look at it, you guys are having great results there and I have to imagine that some of those holes in your footprint have to be more valuable to you than they'd be to other people. So, I guess, I'm asking what would be your appetite for that or is it an opportunity?
Tony D. Vaughn - Devon Energy Corp.:
Charles, I think that is an opportunity. It's the way all of our technical teams work in these core areas. So, we're continuing to work with some of the offset operators and trying to core up where we can. We like the idea of having the ability to drill longer laterals in all the areas that we work. So we're working with some of our offset partners on more of a holistic scale. We've got a great footprint there, and we've got a lot of running room. So it's not like we need to go out and acquire something of size or materiality, but we will continue to look for opportunities in core just like you mentioned.
David A. Hager - Devon Energy Corp.:
Having said that, I want to make clear, Charles, to you and everybody else, we're done with major acquisitions. So what we're talking about here is just trying to core up our acreage in these existing plays, where, as you say, the acreage immediately adjacent to our existing acreage may be more viable to us than others. But as far as major acquisitions, we're done with that.
Charles A. Meade - Johnson Rice & Co. LLC:
Got it. So that might take the forum of trades so you can lengthen lateral and share the working interest or something like that.
David A. Hager - Devon Energy Corp.:
Absolutely.
Charles A. Meade - Johnson Rice & Co. LLC:
Got it. And then if I could ask a question about the Leonard, which I don't think anyone's asked about yet. Could you give us – so you guys raised your type curve there, and you seem like you're more positive on that than you were a few months ago. Can you put that play in context with the other Delaware Basin plays? I think where my baseline is that the Bone Spring is still the big dog out there followed by the Wolfcamp, but is the Leonard or are the recent results of Leonard changing that?
Tony D. Vaughn - Devon Energy Corp.:
Charles, I think we've reported now on three recent Leonard tests there and we've been extremely happy with that. And you can see this one that we reported on in the operations report is outstanding. It's a two-mile long lateral. It's in the Thistle area. We have, I believe, about 60,000 prospective acres in the Leonard play. So, in terms of scale, it probably doesn't – it's not the same magnitude as the 2nd Bone Springs, but in terms of well returns, it's every bit the same thing as the 2nd Bone Springs. And industry has done a really good job of de-risking the Leonard and the Wolfcamp around us. There's been some industry spacing tests that we've got the data on that have helped us understand where we go from here. Our location camp that we commented on in the past, specifically for the Leonard, has really been directed towards the work that we see in what we call the Leonard B zones. But the A and the C are prospective as well. Industry is actually working in the A and C, and our tests that we commented on have been in the B. So there's the potential to drive the location count up both on a risk and a un-risk basis. And, again, as we start thinking about our development plans to ramp up activity, the Leonard and the 2nd Bone Springs will be at the top of our list in terms of incremental well returns.
Charles A. Meade - Johnson Rice & Co. LLC:
That's helpful detail. Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Brian Singer from Goldman Sachs. Your line is open.
Brian Singer - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Thank you. Good morning.
David A. Hager - Devon Energy Corp.:
Good morning.
Brian Singer - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
One of the points you made that you're looking for to accelerate activity is comfort that you can secure supplies at rationale costs and wanted to see if you could comment on that point. And maybe to try to phrase the question to the degree you were thinking not about $1 billion budget but a $1.5 billion budget, do you think you could execute on that within what you would expect to achieve the returns you're looking for? And what if it were a $2 billion budget, where if anywhere do you see any constraints?
David A. Hager - Devon Energy Corp.:
Well, obviously, the lower the level of incremental activity the more confidence that we have that we can go out and execute at very similar type costs what exists today. And as you probably double the activity, we most likely would be doing that in an environment where we're not the only one that's increasing activity. The rest of the industry would as well and so the ability to do so for the same service costs, given the great reduction that we've seen in service companies in terms of their capability is the availability of services, the availability of people that becomes more challenged. So I don't think any of us have an absolute answer as to what the implications of that are. But it's just something I can say with great confidence that we'd be assessing very carefully to make sure that we are producing still strong returns on these outstanding assets that we have. So I would anticipate, if we're going to increase from $1 billion to $1.5 billion, there may be some increases associated with that, but they'd probably be much more manageable increases. If we go up to $2 billion, we just have to see. But, again, we're in as good a position as anybody in the industry. This is not a problem that's unique to Devon. This is a problem that's going to exist for everybody as prices recover and service industry attempts to recover and rehire people and retool their industry as well that we're all going to have to be assessing. So, Tony or Darryl, do you guys want to add some more to that?
Darryl G. Smette - Devon Energy Corp.:
Yeah. This is Darryl. I would say, as we see it right now, the only area where we think if there's a big upturn in activity that would cause us some immediate concerns would be in the stimulation side of the business. We think there's adequate rigs that are available even though they are now stacked but not cannibalized, and we're talking the 1,500 HP rigs. We think there is ample supply of those if we had to double, for example, the industry would double their capital expenditure program. We think the tubulars are in pretty good shape. While there has been some decrease in the amount of labor that's available, we think, with modest increases, that labor would be back over a period of time, whether that's six months or eight months. The stimulation area is a different animal. Right now, we think that's been cut about 33% in terms of capacity. How long it takes to get that 33% back? We don't know. But that would be the one area that initially would cause us some concern on the cost side of the equation.
Brian Singer - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
That's really helpful color. Thank you. My follow-up is on the STACK play. If we think about the changes in pressure regimes, the changes in GORs over a well's life, the strong oil rates that you've shown from at least on an initial production rate basis and your legacy production, how should we expect oil as a percent of the total mix to evolve as we go over the next one to two years?
David A. Hager - Devon Energy Corp.:
Brian, I'll tell you, we're watching that pretty close and the STACK play in the Meramec is too young to specifically comment. I will highlight though that all the fluid data that we have seen across the play has been to the optimistic side of our initial interpretation. So, all the new IPs that we're commenting on have oil contents of 60% or greater. We characterize, over the life of this field, that we would see something in the order of about 40%, roughly 40%, 45% oil. I'm not sure how this goes, but we'll have to watch that. But, so far, across the play, we've been highly encouraged. And I'll tell you that the one anomaly that we've seen has been really testing the far southwest portion of the Meramec there. We've seen oil contents much higher than what we see in the Cana-Woodford, which, really, we haven't talked much about our legacy acreage position in the Woodford. But that really sets that whole couple of hundred thousand acres of ours up for prospective higher yield production in the future. So, really, it's a positive story for the play and specifically for our footprint.
Brian Singer - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Paul Sankey from Wolfe Research. Your line is open.
Paul Sankey - Wolfe Research LLC:
Hi. Good morning, David. David, is there any scenario under which you don't sell Access? Are we now just at the point of crossing the Ts and dotting the Is on that deal? And is there some alternative, whereby, you would want to keep it? Thanks?
David A. Hager - Devon Energy Corp.:
Well, you're never done until you're done and so it's important to remember here that we're not – it's not just as simple as perhaps the sale of an E&P asset. We're actually entering into a long-term transportation agreement with the purchaser of this asset. And so, given that, we're establishing a relationship that's going to exist, and we have to make sure that all the provisions in the contract work for both sides. So that's certainly something that we continue to work through. I can tell you so far that we have been working with a party for quite some time, and we have had additional interest from some other parties as well. So we're very optimistic about where we stand in the overall process with this. It's just a lot of things you have to make sure you get right. And also – we also have, beyond the tariffs associated with Jackfish itself right now, we obviously have another project sitting up there in the Pike project that we think is as high a quality as the Jackfish project. And this is a project we haven't sanctioned yet, but it's something that perhaps and we'd consider strongly sanctioning in a more normalized commodity price environment. So that has some bearing on – and the associated tariffs on that – on how that would be valued by the potential purchaser. So we're working through all those type things. But I can tell you, discussions are going extremely well on multiple fronts right now. And so, you're never done until you're done, and it's obviously more than just dotting an I and crossing a T, I would say. It's having discussions around some pertinent issues in the contract. But discussions so far have been very, very positive and we still think that it's very realistic to have it done by the end of the first half.
Paul Sankey - Wolfe Research LLC:
Good. Thank you for that. A follow-up which is separate, you mentioned, as you ended your comments, the leverage of Devon to oil prices. Were you talking ex-hedging and can you just go over your hedging strategy again given the way things have changed? Are you intending maybe to carry more leverage to upside in oil prices now or are you going to be aiming for a similar level of protection as you have had previously? Thanks.
David A. Hager - Devon Energy Corp.:
Well, our overall strategy on that, Paul, is unchanged. We target, and it's not an absolute, but we target to be approximately 50% hedged by the point at which we enter any given year. And that's to help underpin the cash flows of the company to give us confidence around the capital spend that we can execute. Now, we have, in historical years, with the exception of coming into 2016, but many other years, we had a very, very successful hedging program. In 2015, as you know, we had well over $2 billion of hedge gains. And so it's a program that's worked very well. We have added some very attractive Q2 gas hedges now. We have more than 30% of our expected production hedged at around $2.69 per Mcf. And for the remainder of 2016, more than 25% of our oil production is protected primarily through collars with a weighted average ceiling price of $44 and a protective pullover on $39. So, we're going to add, on an opportunistic basis throughout 2016, hedges where we see appropriate. I can also tell you that we have recently implemented a change where we're going to do a certain level of our hedging program, not the entire program, but a base level of our hedging program on a more programmatic basis, where we will enter in a level of hedges each quarter and we'll probably hedge forward as far as six quarters and do it on a consistent programmatic basis. But we'll still have – a good portion of the program is going to be done more on an opportunistic basis as we have historically done as well with the overall target to be around 50% hedged as we enter in any given year
Paul Sankey - Wolfe Research LLC:
Got it. So, basically, you're retaining that 50% target, you just may change the trading strategy to be more ratable, I guess, to a given extent?
David A. Hager - Devon Energy Corp.:
Yeah, that – yeah, a little bit of change. Not a huge change; a little bit. So we're adding some programmatic and a little bit less on the opportunistic side. And, by the way, Paul, on those sensitivities, those are ex-hedges. Those are without hedges.
Paul Sankey - Wolfe Research LLC:
Got it. Understood. Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of James Sullivan from Alembic Global. Your line is open.
James Sullivan - Alembic Global Advisors LLC:
Hey. Good morning, guys. Thanks for getting me in here. Just one quick follow-up there on the sensitivities, obviously, so you just clarified that it doesn't include the hedges you guys have laid on, but it does include, I'm assuming, the expense – the leverage you guys are getting from the expense cuts that you guys have made to-date, I assume, right?
David A. Hager - Devon Energy Corp.:
Yeah, it would be excluding the hedges that we have layered on. That's correct. And it's really based on the realized price that we are getting.
James Sullivan - Alembic Global Advisors LLC:
Okay, great. Thanks. So just on a kind of totally different topic, most of the questions have been kind of asked and answered, but what are you guys seeing in the NGL markets? Obviously, you guys have a lot of leverage to that product in the STACK, especially in the whole Cana position and everything. But, obviously, the ethane and propane prices have come back a little bit. Can you just give us your macro thoughts on that overall product category, how you see things going into the second half of 2016 into 2017 with the potential for demand increases?
Darryl G. Smette - Devon Energy Corp.:
Yeah, this is Darryl. And you are exactly right. We have a large component of our production as NGLs, just around 20%. Just some background
James Sullivan - Alembic Global Advisors LLC:
Great. Thanks, guys.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of David Tameron from Wells Fargo. Your line is open.
David R. Tameron - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
Hi. Thanks for taking my question. Most have been answered. One final one. On the Barnett, if we were to see a ramp in gas prices, would you – what would it take to accelerate activity there or would you use that additional cash flow to un-allocate to one of the crude plays?
David A. Hager - Devon Energy Corp.:
David, we look at our entire portfolio. So when we generate incremental cash flow, we look at the entire portfolio. And I would suspect that the entire boat would be lifted. We like the Barnett. We think it's got low-risk opportunities. I think we've commented in the past couple of calls that we really have de-risked and completely understand the vertical re-frac opportunity, and we've got about 30 of the horizontal re-frac opportunities under our belt, and we think we've understood how to do that. We've got a real positive relationship with our EnLink partners there. So we would consider the Barnett. We also have some opportunities in Cana in the drier portion or leaner portion of that property as well that would be just as commercial.
David R. Tameron - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
Okay. So, I get – okay. Fair enough. Appreciate the answer. Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Ross Payne from Wells Fargo. Your line is open.
Ross Payne - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
You guys have answered my question on the hedging, but glad to see you're going to be raising that through the rest of the year. Thank you.
David A. Hager - Devon Energy Corp.:
Thank you, Ross.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Derrick Whitfield from GMP Securities. Your line is open.
Derrick Whitfield - GMP Securities LLC:
Thank you, and good morning. So, speaking to the STACK Meramec, in your upside case of 14 wells per section on page eight, how many flow units or intervals are you assuming in that density pilot? Is it simply 2, as the chart indicates? And more specifically, is it the Meramec 200 and Meramec 300 intervals?
David A. Hager - Devon Energy Corp.:
Well, it's going to vary. It's a little bit hard to describe. But it depends on where you are in the play as to which of the Meramec zones you're going to develop, because different zones are developed aerially on different parts of the play. And what we're trying to describe in that is whichever is the primary, and it could be the Meramec 200, it could be the Meramec 300, it could be the Meramec 100, whichever the primary testing at eight wells per section. And we're also testing a secondary zone and up to six wells per section. But exactly which interval that is will vary across the play depending on where it's developed geologically.
Derrick Whitfield - GMP Securities LLC:
Thanks. And then just order of magnitude, Dave, and I understand it varies with regard to where you are in the play, but how many industry results do we have in the Meramec 100 and Meramec 500? Because that seems to be the least delineated based on your comments?
David A. Hager - Devon Energy Corp.:
I think that's correct. I don't know the exact well count, but we have about 140 data points across industry. We actually have an ownership position in about a hundred of those 140 data points. In fact, we have data in most of the 140 data points. We've operated about – I think about 30, 35 operations. But, again, it's largely being confined, at this point, to the Meramec 200 and Meramec 300. Order of magnitude, I think, we probably have less than five data points in both the Meramec 100 and the Meramec 500 zones.
Derrick Whitfield - GMP Securities LLC:
Thanks for taking my question.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Jamaal Dardar from TPH. Your line is open.
Jamaal Dardar - Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co.:
Hey. Good morning, guys. Most of my questions were answered, but I just wanted to touch on the Delaware and Wolfcamp. It looks like appraisal drilling will be somewhat limited this year. But just kind of want to think on timing of tests there given some really positive results we've seen, particularly in Lea County. So just wanted to get a sense on your expectations on prospectivity and results in that part of the basin? Thanks.
Tony D. Vaughn - Devon Energy Corp.:
Jamaal, we have really focused on our work in the 2nd Bone Spring. We continue to find that the 2nd Bone Spring and now the Leonard will be the top incremental returns that we can generate in our portfolio. We really like how industry has de-risked around us, the Wolfcamp. And as you mentioned, it's come up across the Mexico border. We watch all that work. If you look at the – or if you consider the future development plan for the STACK column of opportunities, it all hinge on what your outlook is for commodity prices going forward. And so, in the kind of the mid-cycle to low-cycle case, we've got a lot of work to do in the 2nd Bone Spring and the Leonard sands. And as we move from the mid-cycle to the high-cycle, we've got a lot of opportunity in the Wolfcamp that will be incorporated into that. So we're encouraged by the Wolfcamp, we just don't find the commerciality to be as competitive in the Wolfcamp as we do in the Bone Spring and the Leonard.
David A. Hager - Devon Energy Corp.:
But that cycles back to the comment I started to make earlier, just how many different zones that we have here in the Delaware Basin as well as in the STACK play. And what we're trying to do is, get an idea of what the productivity is of each of these zones, what is the optimum spacing in each of these zones, and we're being very thoughtful about our approach to this so that we are fully developing the resource and the value associated with these versus the alternative of just drilling very quickly in one zone and four wells per section or some fairly broad spacing and essentially sub-optimally developing the entire inventory that we have. We're not doing that. We are being very thoughtful, very careful., because we are sitting on truly world-class resources here in the hearts of some of the best plays and we want to generate as much value as we can long-term from these resources.
Tony D. Vaughn - Devon Energy Corp.:
Got just one thing to quickly add to that, Dave. We talked to you in the past about the tension and the drive for technical excellence and that has been translated into public data that I think all of you have access to. If you go look at IHS reported information, quarter-to-quarter we've talked about the 90-day IPs that we're generating on our inventory. It continues to improve and out-compete all of our peer group. If you look at the trend over the last four years, we've gone from kind of a mid-pack performer to 2015 we're number one in terms of 90-day IPs. And that's a combination of the great portfolio that Dave just mentioned, but it's also attributed to the competency of our technical team that we're extremely proud of those results.
Howard J. Thill - Devon Energy Corp.:
We are now at the top of the hour, and while we didn't get to every caller, and we apologize for that, we are going to bid you a good day. We thank you for your interest in Devon and all the good questions. If you have any other questions, please don't hesitate to follow-up with one of us in Investor Relations. Thank you and have a great day.
Operator:
This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.
Executives:
Howard J. Thill - Senior Vice President, Communications & Investor Relations David A. Hager - President and Chief Executive Officer Thomas L. Mitchell - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President Tony D. Vaughn - Executive Vice President-Exploration & Production
Analysts:
Doug Leggate - Bank of America Merrill Lynch Charles A. Meade - Johnson Rice & Co. LLC Arun Jayaram - JPMorgan Securities LLC Subash Chandra - Guggenheim Securities LLC Edward George Westlake - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker) David William Kistler - Simmons & Company International John P. Herrlin - SG Americas Securities LLC Brian Singer - Goldman Sachs & Co. Bob Alan Brackett - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC David Martin Heikkinen - Heikkinen Energy Advisors LLC Phillips Johnston - Capital One Securities, Inc. David R. Tameron - Wells Fargo Securities LLC Ross Payne - Wells Fargo Securities LLC Jonathan D. Wolff - Jefferies LLC Paul Sankey - Wolfe Research LLC Jeff Healy - American International Group, Inc.
Operator:
Welcome to Devon Energy's fourth quarter and full year 2015 earnings conference call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. This call is being recorded. I'd now like to turn the call over to Mr. Howard Thill, Senior Vice President of Communications and Investor Relations. Sir, you may begin.
Howard J. Thill - Senior Vice President, Communications & Investor Relations:
Thank you, Stephen, and good morning, everyone. I'd like to welcome you to the call as well. Today's call is going to consist largely of Q&A, so I hope everyone has had a chance to review our fourth quarter and full-year earnings release that also includes our forward-looking guidance as well as our detailed operations report. Also on the call today are
David A. Hager - President and Chief Executive Officer:
Thank you, Howard, and welcome, everyone. As we all know, 2015 provided an extremely challenging business environment for our industry. We responded during the year by proactively taking steps to align our business with these conditions by reducing field-level costs by $400 million, delivering efficiencies and cost savings and reduce capital requirements by $500 million, and we attained significant productivity gains and improved type curves and IP rates across all our core plays. As we look to 2016, our top priority in this environment is to protect the balance sheet by balancing spending requirements with available cash flow. We also see no reason to accelerate production growth into these weak markets, which has led us to take aggressive measures to reduce our capital investment by 75% year over year. We also have plans in place to preserve more than $1 billion of cash flow on a go-forward basis through a number of initiatives, including incremental field-level cost savings, a reduction of our workforce by about 1,000 people, and by adjusting the dividend rate to preserve over $300 million of cash flow. In an effort to further strengthen our balance sheet, we also have non-core divestitures underway, with the intent to monetize $2 billion to $3 billion of assets during 2016. As I've said many times, Devon is in the advantageous position of having no long-cycle projects, minimal long-term contracts, and nearly all of our acreage is held by production. These favorable attributes allow us to prudently adjust our 2016 capital program to balance cash flows and to protect our balance sheet. But it also gives us the ability to ramp up development activity when commodity prices rebound and to see a quick production response to that ramp when it happens. Our capital program in 2016 is designed to maximize cash flow and operational continuity, with activity directed toward the lowest risk and highest impact opportunities in each of Devon's core areas. This disciplined capital program is expected to maintain relatively flat oil production from Devon's core assets compared to 2015, and we are projecting only a 10% oil decline from Q4 2015 to Q4 2016. This production resiliency is a testament to the quality of our go-forward assets. Overall top line production in 2016 from core assets is expected to decline by 6%, driven by lower gas volumes. The efficiency of our 2016 budget is also highlighted by our ability to fund our capital program at today's strip pricing within operational cash flow, EnLink distributions, and expected Access Pipeline proceeds. Once again, we have the flexibility to ramp up spending or to make additional cuts to our spending plans depending upon how commodity prices trend going forward. As I mentioned earlier, in addition to balancing near-term spending with cash inflows, we are also working to improve our financial position through the monetization of $2 billion to $3 billion of assets. We are in the latter stages of discussions for the sale of our 50% interest in Access Pipeline, and expect that transaction to occur in the first half of the year, potentially the first quarter. We are also in the process of opening a data room for the sale of up to 80,000 BOE per day of non-core upstream assets in the U.S. The properties up for sale include 15,000 net undeveloped acres in Martin County, Texas and producing assets in the Southern Midland Wolfcamp, Carthage, Granite Wash, and Mississippian Lime plays. We have had direct contact from potential buyers ranging from majors to well-capitalized peers to private equity firms. We believe these assets are substantially higher quality than those being considered for divestment by others and are in the market quicker. This gives us a competitive edge. Conversations thus far have been encouraging, and we have confidence in our ability to attractively sell these assets throughout 2016 and use the upstream asset sale proceeds for debt retirements. Looking at our financial flexibility longer term, if commodity prices remain low, Devon has significant balance sheet strength to withstand an extended downturn. Pro forma for the Felix acquisition, which closed in early January, we had $3.9 billion of liquidity at year end, consisting of $1.5 billion of cash and $2.4 billion of capacity on our senior credit facility. Importantly, this credit facility does not mature until the end of 2019 and contains only one material financial covenant, a debt-to-capitalization ratio below 65%. At year end this ratio was only 24%. In addition to our strong liquidity, we've done a good job managing our upcoming debt maturities, with no significant debt coming due until December 2018. Bottom line, our advantaged capital structure provides us a significant amount of financial strength and flexibility. So in summary, I hope you come away with three important messages today. First, we are committed to living within cash flows in 2016. To do so, we have taken aggressive measures to preserve more than $1 billion of cash flow through operating cost and dividend reductions. Second, we have the financial strength to withstand an extended downturn, and we're looking to further bolster our investment-grade balance sheet with ongoing asset divestiture programs. And lastly, the quality, depth, and diversification of our go-forward asset base is unmatched. Devon has exposure to some of the best short-cycle projects in the world. We are well positioned to accelerate activity when the markets reward growth again. With that, I will turn the call back to Howard for Q&A.
Howard J. Thill - Senior Vice President, Communications & Investor Relations:
Thanks, Dave. We're going to have a lot of calls today and a lot of questions on today's call, I'm sure. So to make sure that we get to as many questions on the call as possible, as usual, I'll ask you to limit yourself to one question within an associated follow-up, and you can reprompt to ask additional questions if time permits. So, Stephen, with that, we'll take our first question.
Operator:
Thank you. Our first question comes from the line of Doug Leggate with Bank of America. Your line is open.
Doug Leggate - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Thank you and good morning, everybody. Dave, I appreciate the clarification on the asset sales process, but I wonder if you can just give us a little bit more color on your expected timing and perhaps the associated cash flow that goes along with that $2 billion to $3 billion of proceeds. I don't want to risk my follow-up here, but just for clarification, is Access still in that $2 billion to $3 billion, or is that additive to the $2 billion to $3 billion? I do have a quick follow-up, please.
David A. Hager - President and Chief Executive Officer:
Sure, Doug. Good morning. Yes, we do include Access in the $2 billion to $3 billion, although there's obviously flexibility around that. And we aren't trying to predict the market, but we did make that assumption that it's in there. But it could actually even be higher depending on how everything goes. I think there's really a misperception in the market about the quality of these assets, to be quite honest with everybody. These are very high-quality assets. You may remember that we did a non-core divestiture program about a year and a half ago after we acquired GeoSouthern, and that was really what we would consider assets that were towards the bottom of our barrel I'd say as far as asset quality. These are high-quality assets. And the feedback that we have received from the market thus far is very positive regarding the quality of these assets and the ability to transact these assets at the prices that we have assumed here. We are opening data rooms starting next week. And then soon after that, we anticipate that we'd be receiving bids here during the first half of the year and closing on these throughout the year. I'm going to turn over to Tom Mitchell, who's going to comment a little bit about the cash flow side.
Thomas L. Mitchell - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
We haven't given out, Doug, a specific cash flow number. We've talked about 80,000 barrels a day. About 23% of that is oil. And I just want to emphasize what Dave said that we've had a number of discussions with parties. The interest in it is extremely robust, more than you would expect. It does lean closer to the private equity side from an interest level, but that's something that we had expected when we went out with the package. We're moving very quickly to try to get ahead of what we think may be further asset sales by other peers, and we're on that timeline right now going out here to open data rooms and move aggressively in early March. So we're well positioned and it's a great package, and that's the feedback we're getting from the potential buyers. But on a scale basis, they're not seeing anything like this in the market, and on a quality basis they're not seeing anything like this in the market. And that's what gives us the confidence both that we'll get it done and within the ranges that we've talked about.
Doug Leggate - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Okay. I appreciate that, fellows. My follow-up is really on the guidance for 2016, specifically in Canada and the oil sands. Based on the differentials that you appear to be assuming and the operating costs, it looks like there's a real chance that some of those oil sands projects could be negative cash flow. I'm just wondering if that's the right interpretation and how you plan to manage through that in terms of maintaining production if oil prices remain depressed. And I'll leave it there, thanks.
David A. Hager - President and Chief Executive Officer:
I'm going expand your question just a little bit, Doug. We think we have a great benefit here at Devon, as I've been saying. We are just short-term project oriented. We do not have to continue investment into longer-term projects that no longer make economic sense such as in the deepwater, LNG projects, anything like that. So we have the ability to flex our capital down, and we have the ability to flex our capital back up very quickly. We have maintained – despite the employee reduction we're going through right now, it's very important to us to maintain the organizational capacity to flex our program back up should we see encouragement in prices. We just don't think it makes a lot of sense to accelerate production into a $30 oil and $2 gas price environment currently. But if we see some encouragement, we have the organizational capacity. We'll have the service companies lined up where we can quickly accelerate this, and then there would be a commensurate adjustment in our production guidance. We have extremely high-quality projects. There's no question about that. We're just showing financial – the appropriate financial behavior here given where prices are currently. Now, I'll let Tony talk to you a little bit more about the oil sands and where that stands and where we stand on opportunities in the U.S. on the oil side too.
Tony D. Vaughn - Executive Vice President-Exploration & Production:
Okay. Thanks, Dave. And, Doug, just going back to your question about Canada, on the co-flow side of the business at our Bonnyville location, we've got a lot of flexibility there. So we evaluate all those wells, and we're capable of shutting in those wells when they become uneconomic on a well-by-well basis without any concern about the degradation and ultimate recoveries. When you get into the SAGD [Steam Assisted Gravity Drainage] portion of the inventory there, we think we have the top-tier asset in the play. And we would probably be the last company to have the stress on us from a profitability or immediate cash flow projections. If you look at our capital demands for 2016, it's minor. It's minor in 2016, so we've got a lot of flexibility. There may be month-to-month that we have a neutral cash flow in the SAGD operation. But again, we probably have the best project there. I guess when I go back and start looking at our ability to grow oil, we've got the most flexibility and more immediate impact will be on the U.S. side of the business. There we've got the best inventory or access to the best inventory in the Delaware Basin and STACK and the Eagle Ford. So we're ready to ramp up. We've got a deep inventory. We have all the permitting and required work done ready for that ramp-up. So as soon as we generate additional cash flow in the company, we'll be back to work and we'll be growing that oil base.
Doug Leggate - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
I appreciate the clear answer, guys. Thank you very much.
David A. Hager - President and Chief Executive Officer:
Thanks, Doug.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Charles Meade with Johnson Rice. Your line is open.
Charles A. Meade - Johnson Rice & Co. LLC:
Good morning, everyone. Dave, I think you alluded to this, and I apologize if I missed it. But can you be a little bit more specific about what kind of oil and/or natural gas prices would incentivize you to pick up activity in the back half of 2016, assuming all these asset sales get done, and maybe offer an opinion on which plays or which areas you'd be most likely to accelerate?
David A. Hager - President and Chief Executive Officer:
Charles, we are currently looking at an anticipated cash flow neutral budget at strip pricing from our operational cash flow, the EnLink distributions plus anticipated Access Pipeline proceeds, which by the way, we still have a high degree of confidence we are going to execute on. That has not changed. So at strip pricing, we'd be cash flow neutral. If we see prices – if we see the strip moving up, and we have confidence it is going to continue to move up, that's when we would consider increasing activity. And again, all of our projects are short-term, so we can ramp back up very, very quickly. You saw that we ramped down quickly. We can ramp back up just as quickly. There is no issue there. We just feel that we are being prudent given the current commodity price environment. And where would we ramp up? Tony I think answered it. There are three areas that really have strong economics for us. Those are the Eagle Ford and the Delaware Basin and in the STACK play, and we'd be looking at all three of those plays to see where we'd put the rigs. But they all would have fairly similar economics and strong economics.
Charles A. Meade - Johnson Rice & Co. LLC:
Got it, that's helpful, Dave. And then that's a good segue also to the next question I was going to ask, which is about the big improvement in the STACK results you had that you released this quarter. I think I asked a similar question last quarter about what was driving the variance in well results across that position. And maybe now I would ask that question again, but also ask you what's driving that improvement over time as well?
David A. Hager - President and Chief Executive Officer:
I'll let Tony take that, but I'd just say we think this combined, we said it last quarter. We're in the best part of the STACK. We're in the heart just like we are in the Eagle Ford with our position we acquired there. We're in a volatile oil window, plus we have multiple pays, and we're moving through the appraisal process right now. And we knew it was going to get better, and frankly it's getting better. It's going to keep getting better. We've got the best inventory in the industry right now. But I'll let Tony go through the details on that.
Tony D. Vaughn - Executive Vice President-Exploration & Production:
Charles, you're right. If you look at our operating report, we commented on about 12 Devon wells that we brought on in the Meramec and another eight that were brought – or another four that were brought on in the Felix position. All of those really were above our type curve. In fact, on the majority of those wells that we continued the Felix operations, the wells were not only high rate but they were also about 60% oil. So it was above our overall modeling that we had done previously. I think the work that we're continuing is really a follow-up to the good work that the Felix team was doing. They have really focused on the optimal landing zone in each of these Meramec intervals, a lot of detail and concern about maintaining the largest amount of footage drilled in the Polasti (19:46) interval there. We continue to advance the completion designs. We're pumping about 2,500 to 2,700 pounds per lateral foot, so we're loading these completions up with a lot of sand. We're using – the majority of our fluid is a slickwater-based fluid with some crosslinked gel in that. So we're experimenting with the fluid type there. So I think all that combined is just leading to improved completions well to well. And I think we commented the last time we were on a call with you that really the outstanding thing that we really like about the STACK play is really the volatility of the results is very narrow for a very young play like we have at STACK. So we're very optimistic and we're ready for an increased run rate, increased activity level there when the opportunity arises.
Charles A. Meade - Johnson Rice & Co. LLC:
Thanks, Tony. I have the same recollection; and congratulations on your new position.
Tony D. Vaughn - Executive Vice President-Exploration & Production:
Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Arun Jayaram with JPMorgan. Your line is open.
Arun Jayaram - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Good morning, gentlemen. Tom, I wanted to start with you. Obviously, Devon has taken some aggressive action on the cost front and CapEx front. I was wondering if you could comment on any discussions you've had with the rating agencies and your confidence about maintaining Devon's historical investment-grade credit rating.
Thomas L. Mitchell - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Good morning, Arun. Thanks for the question. Obviously at the end of the year you go before the agencies to give them your year-end results and talk about the reserve profile within the company. So we've been through that exercise with all of them. You've seen the results of that, so let me start with that. So S&P has taken us to BBB and a stable position. And we've got Fitch having concluded their rating, currently at BBB+ and also stable. So we've got two solid investment-grade positions there, which pretty much assures us as an investment-grade company. Moody's is a different story. I think you're aware of that as well as others listening that they're debating what they're going to do. There are a lot of moving parts there. And quite frankly, it's hard for us, or I think anybody at this point in time, to tell exactly what they are going to do with this group. They've already made the decision on the non-investment-grade group, which resulted in multiple-notch downgrades. They've taken a very low price deck view of not really rating through the cycle but rating closer to the bottom of the cycle. And they're shifting how they're thinking about investment-grade. So on a historic model, I feel pretty comfortable that we would be okay. It's just very difficult at this point in time to tell exactly how they're going to recalibrate what they consider to be investment-grade. And that decision-making process is in is in play as we speak and probably concluding before the end of the month. So I wish I could give you a more firm answer on that. I think the decisions that we've taken here, while they were really primarily targeted at the business, not the rating agencies, are also credit enhancing and should be confidence inspiring to the agencies. And that's the best we think we can do is to really focus on the business and let the rating agency portion fall where it falls, given of course the fact that we want to continue to maintain our strength in investment-grade and position ourselves as best as possible.
Arun Jayaram - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
That's helpful. My follow-up is just really regarding the Q4, if you guys could comment a little bit on the Q4 2016 exit rate. Just going through the math, it would suggest U.S. volumes down in the low 90,000 barrels per day on the oil side. I was wondering if you could comment if you agree with that in terms of the exit rate given lower CapEx. And just talk about – that would imply quite a bit of loss in operating momentum into 2017. How quickly do you think that – if you got a price signal, could you regain that operating momentum?
David A. Hager - President and Chief Executive Officer:
Arun, what I'm trying to emphasize to everybody here is that we are probably uniquely positioned with the ability – with the fact that all of our projects are short cycle time projects. They're all well oriented projects. We don't have any long-term projects within the company. And so that gives us tremendous flexibility to decrease our capital, such as we've done just now when we're in a very low commodity price environment, and the ability to ramp up capital spending and see commensurate results on the production side should we get some encouragement. So we can make immediate decisions around ramping production back up. We have the projects ready. We have the permits ready. All we have to do – we have the wells designed. All we have to do is hire the rigs and drill the wells, and then you'll see production impact anywhere from – some will be completed immediately. Some are pad drilling and may take up to six months or so to see the production impact from those, but you start seeing response from higher capital spend very, very quickly for us. Tony might even be able to fill you in with a little bit more details on that than what I just said, Arun.
Tony D. Vaughn - Executive Vice President-Exploration & Production:
Arun, when we look at – when we do our forecasting work for the year, we're confident in the ability to forecast most of our properties. What I would comment on is the Eagle Ford has got – the wells have such a high productivity index. The wells have such a high productivity index there's a little bit more range of error included in that forecast. And as you know, the amount of – or the pace of our activities is being modified as we go through the year. So that one property alone is the one that can drive an outperformance compared to how we had forecast. I'd also like to point out that we know with a limited capital program we're completely focused on the base management of our business. And we've talked about it over the course of the last 18 months that we've transformed our capabilities internally here. I think you're starting to see a lot of the results from that in public data. We have the highest 90-day Junes (27:00) in each of the four basins that we're driving capital towards. So we're pretty confident that we'll outperform. I think you saw that quarter to quarter over the last six or eight quarters from us. A lot of that's going be driven just by the management of our base. And so we've got – personally I've got a lot of confidence that we'll beat the curve that you're describing.
Arun Jayaram - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
I'd just suggest real quickly is that the guidance if I were to summarize the comments, maybe a glass half empty in terms of well productivity – maybe provide a little upside if you perform better than that in terms of – you highlighted the Eagle Ford.
Tony D. Vaughn - Executive Vice President-Exploration & Production:
I think that's correct. I think, Arun, as we continue to see results in the STACK play, we've commented about the type curve there. We're already at that type curve. And so we'll continue to modify that as results continue to improve. So I think there are going be positives to the forecast.
Arun Jayaram - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
All right, thank you.
David A. Hager - President and Chief Executive Officer:
Thanks, Arun.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Subash Chandra with Guggenheim. Your line is open.
Subash Chandra - Guggenheim Securities LLC:
Hi. My question is I guess the roadmap for asset sales and use of proceeds. You talked about paying debt down. If I think of hypothetically $2 billion to $3 billion, how do you think of how that would be deployed? Would it be 100% for debt reduction? I presume bank debt and near-term maturities, or is there some of it that you might reconsider for the drill bit?
Thomas L. Mitchell - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Hi, Subash. This is Tom. What we've said to you guys is that the Access proceeds would be to fill the funding gap in the capital program this year. And that the proceeds from asset divestitures, the sale of our producing properties will be targeted for debt repayment. So how we mechanically go about that debt repayment, we're still debating how exactly to go about that. Our bonds on the long end of the curve are trading well below par, so you actually get a big bang for the buck if that holds and you're able to redeploy the capital from the divestiture into those bonds. Whether we to that immediately or not is yet to be determined. This is a pretty volatile environment, but that's the target right now. So you'd have Access wherever it comes out filling the funding gap, and then the rest of it for debt repayment.
Subash Chandra - Guggenheim Securities LLC:
Okay, thanks for that clarification. And then I guess secondly, is there a way – you mentioned that you want to preserve your optionality so you're organizationally capable of high levels of activity. Is there a way to put a rig number to it on what you think the peak rig count you can do after this resizing?
Tony D. Vaughn - Executive Vice President-Exploration & Production:
Subash, I think it's going be driven by our cash flow opportunities that we generate here in the company. We've got the capabilities internally to ramp quickly back up to a 20-rig program if we had the business environment to do that. So we really are not inhibited by the ability to execute. We think we have the permits in place in the core – or the core of each of our four areas. So it's really going be predicated on how we generate cash flow for the year.
David A. Hager - President and Chief Executive Officer:
Subash, that is a 20-rig operated program, not including the Eagle Ford where BHP operates that activity. And also we do a lot of activity 50:50 with Cimarex up in STACK play. And so those rigs would be in addition to the 20-rig program that obviously we can manage.
Subash Chandra - Guggenheim Securities LLC:
Right. Right, so that could be 25 to 30 rigs. Okay, thank you very much.
David A. Hager - President and Chief Executive Officer:
Thanks, Subash.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Edward Westlake with Credit Suisse. Your line is open.
Edward George Westlake - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker):
Good morning and thanks for all the color in the ops report, but I'll probably have to stick with balance sheet questions. A downside and upside case, folks are worried about recession. You've highlighted the quality of the assets that you're selling this morning. But say for example the strip price even rolls into 2017 because of some economic weakness. What would be the game plan to manage the downside? Then I've got an upside question to follow.
David A. Hager - President and Chief Executive Officer:
Hi, Ed. First off, we've already taken a lot of steps obviously to reduce our operating and G&A costs by around $800 million. The dividend payments, we've reduced those significantly by around $320 million, adjusted our capital program. We have the asset sales going on. So we think we're in a good position even if the strip or slightly lower does come in, in 2017. We would obviously be looking in 2017 at all available options that we have to us as a company, just as we did coming into 2016. Could they be – is there availability for further reductions on operating expense and G&A? We could review the dividend policy, equity offerings, asset sales. We have a lot of bullets in our gun, I guess you'd say, that we can fire here in order to really maintain our financial strength during these challenging economic times, and we just evaluate each of those and see which makes the most sense.
Edward George Westlake - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker):
So I hear that you would be willing to sell perhaps even some of the I guess Tier 1 acreage if you had to if say oil stayed low for two years.
David A. Hager - President and Chief Executive Officer:
We would certainly consider that. I'm not saying we are going to do that, but we would certainly – our focus of probably – we'd have to make a decision whether it makes more sense to look at the oil side, or we also have some very large gas assets sitting out there, so we'd have to look at that as well. So I'm not going to say we would do one or the other. There are no sacred cows around here, and we would certainly evaluate all the available options and see which we think generates the greatest value for the shareholders. We obviously have to be mindful of the cash flow that's generated by these, and we would do all the appropriate analysis when making our decision. We'd look at all available options to see how we can best handle that, should that situation occur.
Edward George Westlake - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker):
And then on the upside case, say oil does recover to some mid-cycle pricing. I appreciate everyone would have a different view of what that is. You seem like you're resource-rich, and the access to liquidity is probably constraining what you could do in terms of activity. So some other companies have been relatively successful in viewing themselves as startups and issuing equity for growth capital. Is that something on the upside case that you would consider?
David A. Hager - President and Chief Executive Officer:
Again, I hate to rule anything in or out. But if we get a price recovery to more like a mid-cycle case above the current strip, then we would have incremental cash flow available to reinvest back into the capital program. And I think that's the first place we'd look for our funding is just for the incremental available cash flow from higher prices.
Edward George Westlake - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker):
You have to use cash from opposite the first accelerated driver.
David A. Hager - President and Chief Executive Officer:
Yes.
Edward George Westlake - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker):
Okay, thanks.
David A. Hager - President and Chief Executive Officer:
Thanks, Ed.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of David Kistler with Simmons & Company. Your line is open.
David William Kistler - Simmons & Company International:
Good morning, guys.
David A. Hager - President and Chief Executive Officer:
Hi, Dave.
David William Kistler - Simmons & Company International:
Following up a little bit on the 2016 and even some comments towards what 2017 might look like, maybe to frame that up, could you mind sharing, as you talked about managing base decline, where base decline was in 2015, and where you project it to be in 2016? Kind of helps give us an indication maybe to where 2017 would shake out.
Tony D. Vaughn - Executive Vice President-Exploration & Production:
Our overall base decline has really been running about – roughly about 20% for the company. On the gas side, especially in North Texas, the technical team and the operating group in North Texas have done an outstanding job to minimize the decline using plunger lifts and line pressure reductions. They managed to arrest that decline, and it's been running about 11% per year. Our oil decline, because it's fairly new investments, it's much greater and it tends to be over 30%. So on a combined basis it's still around 20% year over year, and I wouldn't expect that to change going into 2016. I think we still have a high degree of focus on our base business. We're continuing to improve our artificial lift operations. Our downtime is continuing to be minimized and improved as we go through our work; so high optimism that we'll continue to have wins on our large base business.
David William Kistler - Simmons & Company International:
I appreciate that. And then just one – thinking about activity in the Delaware right now, on the last call you talked a little bit about the BLM and permitting process there can be a little bit challenging. But obviously reduced activity I would assume puts you in a better position there. I'm just trying to get color on your thoughts there, and does that fit part and parcel with being able to accelerate there as you're able to maybe permit more ahead of a potential ramp up?
Tony D. Vaughn - Executive Vice President-Exploration & Production:
I think, Dave, just as you mentioned, our activity is down in comparison to where it was a year or two years ago. So the permitting requirements are not near as onerous on us as they have been. That really hadn't stopped our desire to have a great working relationship with the BLM, especially in southeast New Mexico. That relationship is extremely high. We just entered into the ability to work with that office there under a master agreement type concept, which we believe we'll be able to communicate more of a full development plan with them and get all the right-of-way permitting done collectively. It won't include the individual APDs for the wells that we'll propose. We'll have to come back and follow up with that. But it will greatly accelerate our ability to ramp back up. So we're continuing that relationship, and we're confident that we can have those wins that we've had in southeast New Mexico and take those to Wyoming and be able to ramp back up in the Powder River Basin in that asset as well.
David William Kistler - Simmons & Company International:
Okay, I appreciate that incremental color. Thanks, guys.
David A. Hager - President and Chief Executive Officer:
Thanks, Dave.
Tony D. Vaughn - Executive Vice President-Exploration & Production:
Thank you, Dave.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of John Herrlin with Société Générale. Your line is open.
John P. Herrlin - SG Americas Securities LLC:
Hi, guys.
David A. Hager - President and Chief Executive Officer:
Morning.
John P. Herrlin - SG Americas Securities LLC:
I've got a question for you on MLPs and EnLink, Dave. Some of the more leveraged E&Ps are roiling the MLP market as folks are worried about transportation, contract changes, things like that. How do you view EnLink? Has your perception or has your strategy changed at all with it because it seems like you're getting penalized for the carnage to the MLP market?
David A. Hager - President and Chief Executive Officer:
Hi, John. Our strategy has not changed at all with regard to EnLink. We think that we have a great relationship with them. They provide outstanding service to us. We also like the fact that we are aligned with them in our new acreage in the STACK play that we acquired from Felix, with them acquiring the Tall Oak assets. That gives us great confidence as we put capital against that program that we're going to have outstanding service to get those wells hooked up in a timely manner. And so our strategy really has not changed in regard to that. We certainly believe that the agreements we have with them are important and the volume commitments and the rates that we agreed – the tariffs we've agreed to pay are bound by contract, and we plan to live up to those agreements. So there's really no change that's been in our relationship and our feeling about them from a long-term strategic value. Now having said that, we obviously look at everything in our portfolio. And so if there is a reason why that should change, again, we like it long term. We will never rule any asset or anything as an absolute sacred cow where we don't look at the best business decision if we should go another direction. But right now, we don't see a reason to go another direction with the EnLink relationship.
John P. Herrlin - SG Americas Securities LLC:
Okay. Thanks, Dave. One last one for me, you mentioned tighter spacing in your ops report in the Bone Spring and the Leonard. Is that going to be the future from a development perspective there, that you'll be doing tighter horizontal well spacing?
Tony D. Vaughn - Executive Vice President-Exploration & Production:
Yes, John, this is Tony. I think you're right about that. We're actually having a lot of encouraging results right now on our downspacing pilots, especially in the areas that have original reservoir pressure. So if you look – we historically have landed the Second Bone Springs in the lower section of that package. And then we've staggered some what we call A-sand wells in above that and are seeing very encouraging results. It's early on the areas that have partial depletion. We would expect a little bit less ability to downspace, but the data is still coming in, and we'll understand that better as we go through 2016. And of course, all this is really tied to oil price. And so there will be a direct relationship to spacing for all of us and the business environment as we go forward.
John P. Herrlin - SG Americas Securities LLC:
Thanks.
David A. Hager - President and Chief Executive Officer:
Thanks, John.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Brian Singer with Goldman Sachs. Your line is open.
Brian Singer - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Thank you, good morning.
David A. Hager - President and Chief Executive Officer:
Good morning, Brian.
Thomas L. Mitchell - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Good morning, Brian.
Brian Singer - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Going back to the balance sheet, what are the metrics that you regard as most important for Devon? And will the asset sales and the dividend cut get you to where you want to be from a leverage perspective? Or per some of the earlier questions, are you considering more actions in your base case scenario as opposed to a downside scenario?
Thomas L. Mitchell - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Hey, Brian. This is Tom. I think the asset sales go a long ways towards getting us where we want to be. And if you're on historical metrics, I think that pretty much works, and that's what you're seeing from S&P and Fitch. Now like I said earlier in my previous comments, it's just really hard to tell where Moody's is going to shake out. So we're leaning really more on a historical view of what those metrics have been, which is not just cash flow metrics. It also involves a fairly healthy component of size and scale. But on Moody's, it's just extremely difficult at this point to answer your question.
Brian Singer - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Got it. So the underlying then goal here is investment-grade credit ratings from all three ratings agencies. Whatever metrics they look at would be what you would want to gear the strategy towards.
Thomas L. Mitchell - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
We maintain investment-grade status with just two rating agencies. So we really – regardless of what Moody's does, we stay in the investment-grade indexes. So while we'd like that, it doesn't damage our investment-grade status if they were to drop us below.
Brian Singer - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Okay, thanks. And then my follow-up is with regards to the – staying within cash flow. If and when oil prices do improve, should we just expect a straight CapEx equals cash flow type strategy? And how does the EnLink business apply here? If there's outspending, including the impact of distributions on a consolidated basis, at the EnLink level, does that weigh in your decision, or is it solely Devon and Devon only?
David A. Hager - President and Chief Executive Officer:
It's essentially Devon and Devon only on that, Brian. And I think that would be the first thing I would say is to look at just a straight how much incremental cash flow we would have and putting that to work back into E&P capital. That's a good first proxy. Obviously, we would look at longer term what we think prices are going do. And if we have even greater confidence they're going to be moving up significantly in the future, we might be willing to ramp up even a little bit more than that. Conversely, if we think it's a temporary phenomenon, we may ramp up a little bit less. But I think that's a first good proxy of how to think about it.
Brian Singer - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Great, thank you.
Thomas L. Mitchell - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Thanks, Brian.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Bob Brackett with Bernstein. Your line is open.
Bob Alan Brackett - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC:
Hi, good morning, question on the Access Pipeline sale. Your partner in the pipeline has made some noise about potentially selling their stake as well. Does that help your process, does it hinder it, or is it a push?
David A. Hager - President and Chief Executive Officer:
It's really independent of that, Bob. We each have our own processes going on for that. Frankly, we think we're probably a little more advanced in our stage of the process than our partner is in looking at their 50%. But it's really two independent processes at this point. And like I said, we remain very confident that we are going to be able to transact on that sometime in the first half of the year. It could potentially be as early as the first quarter, but no guarantees on that.
Bob Alan Brackett - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC:
Great, thanks. And to follow up, in terms of the price you might get for that asset, can we use the capital you've put into that asset as a decent proxy, or would we be far off if we did that?
David A. Hager - President and Chief Executive Officer:
You wouldn't be too far off with that probably.
Bob Alan Brackett - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC:
Great, thank you very much.
Thomas L. Mitchell - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Thanks, Bob.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of David Heikkinen with Heikkinen Energy Advisors. Your line is open.
David Martin Heikkinen - Heikkinen Energy Advisors LLC:
Hey, Tom. Actually you're in a pretty unique position where you can maintain investment-grade, so you can talk pretty openly about some of the concerns for investors around what happens to an E&P company when you lose investment-grade. What are the steps that goes on in thinking about your credit facility being secured, hedging facility, any firm transportation changes? I just would be curious about your perspective.
Thomas L. Mitchell - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Let me just emphasize again so people are clear. Nothing would happen to us with a Moody's shift. And even if we had a bad result from another rating agency, our liquidity position is solid and doesn't change at all. So there's nothing in our revolving capacity, our debt, our bank debt capacity that changes in that circumstance. Those covenants remain the same. Nothing gets triggered. There's nothing in our public debt or our indentures that would occur if that is the case. I think the real impact to those that this occurs to would just be access to the capital markets and primarily at cost. You'd be dealing with higher costs as you tap the markets. Our revolver has got a lot of term left on it. You're out into 2019 before that term is up. So a lot is going to happen between now and that point in time. Those who have to renegotiate now are going be dealing with a totally different environment. And I think the uncertainty that you're seeing out of the agencies on how they approach this is going to reach into those types of negotiations. You'll have people who have got near-term debt concerns just dealing with an uncertain bank market and an uncertain capital market. The bondholders that I've spoken to are equally confused by this and don't know necessarily how exactly it's going to shake out. Some of them are – we don't think in our portfolio of debt holders that there's a lot that would be dependent on Moody's, but there potentially could be some selling of bonds for those investors who require a Moody's and an S&P rating both to hold debt, so that could also be another impact. But just to reemphasize for Devon, Devon really nothing would have – if we were taken fully non-investment-grade, which is not going to happen, there would be no change in our debt picture.
David Martin Heikkinen - Heikkinen Energy Advisors LLC:
And nothing on the commercial paper side either?
Thomas L. Mitchell - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Your commercial paper program, your access to it, and people's ability to trade in that is going be weakened if you've got somebody that goes to non-investment-grade. It's not taken away for us. That really just amounts to a cost of debt, not an access issue.
David Martin Heikkinen - Heikkinen Energy Advisors LLC:
I think it's more critical for companies with international assets and bigger projects, so that's helpful. On the other side, just cash flow neutral, does that include EnLink distributions? I just want to make sure I'm getting that correct.
David A. Hager - President and Chief Executive Officer:
Yes, it does, David.
David Martin Heikkinen - Heikkinen Energy Advisors LLC:
Okay, that was it. Thank you, guys.
Thomas L. Mitchell - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Thank you, David.
David A. Hager - President and Chief Executive Officer:
Thanks.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Phillips Johnston with Capital One. Your line is open.
Phillips Johnston - Capital One Securities, Inc.:
Hey, guys. Thanks, just a quick housekeeping question on Jackfish. The ops report shows that unit LOE was below $10 in fourth quarter. Just wondering if you could tell us what the total operating cash cost was in the fourth quarter, including the blend cost, and maybe where cash costs are running today given the recent weakness in the Canadian currency. Thanks.
Tony D. Vaughn - Executive Vice President-Exploration & Production:
It's about $7.00 for the blend costs, Phillips.
Phillips Johnston - Capital One Securities, Inc.:
Okay. Has the total cash cost come down since then, I guess with the weakness in the Canadian currency?
Tony D. Vaughn - Executive Vice President-Exploration & Production:
Come down since – it's trading today at about where it was trading through the fourth quarter. It's around $0.72.
Phillips Johnston - Capital One Securities, Inc.:
Okay.
Tony D. Vaughn - Executive Vice President-Exploration & Production:
Where the exchange rate is, so it hasn't weakened further. It weakened throughout the year and gave us a significant uplift on the reduction in costs that you saw, but it hasn't continued to weaken in the first part of this year.
Phillips Johnston - Capital One Securities, Inc.:
Okay, got it. Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of David Tameron with Wells Fargo. Your line is open.
David R. Tameron - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
Hi. Good morning, a couple questions. If I just think – and I'm thinking about what I've seen you do in the Meramec as far as well costs, the Eagle Ford, et cetera, I guess a two-part question. One would be how much more room – let's just assume service costs and the forward strip stays where it's at right now. How much more room do you have as far as cost reductions available in the next two to three quarters? How much more downside do you see there? And then the second piece would just be, you talked about your core assets and them all being economic today. Philosophically, how do you guys think ability the big picture, the U.S. and crude prices? I'm just trying to chase that marginal cost type number.
Tony D. Vaughn - Executive Vice President-Exploration & Production:
Dave, let me start on the operating side a bit. We would estimate that the 2016 costs in comparison to 2015 might be down another 4%, and it varies by category of course. We still think there are operating efficiency gains that we will have. As you roll back about 12 months ago, we saw – early in the year we saw a nice improvement in the service provider de-escalation component. But in the second half of the year, we saw great efficiency gains with just optimizing all of our well construction designs, optimizing the execution of our wells. We had very little trouble time. All that has accelerated our time to TD. We're getting better wells completed because of the focus on that detail, so we'll continue that. And historically, we've always seen somewhere between a zero and 10% efficiency gain, and I wouldn't expect anything different than that by the time we get to the end of 2016.
David A. Hager - President and Chief Executive Officer:
David, just to expand a little bit on your question, we have certainly seen third-party studies that show that our acreage in the Eagle Ford in DeWitt County is probably the most economic acreage in the Eagle Ford, and I think it competes well with any play in onshore North America. I can also tell you that we see very similar economics to DeWitt County in the heart of our plays in the Delaware Basin and in the STACK play. So we think that we have certainly three of the plays in our portfolio that position us with the most economic opportunities that you might find in onshore North America. And so it's not a question of the strength of the portfolio at this point. It's a question of how much capital are we going to put against that strong portfolio. I just want to emphasize one last time. We've taken capital down significantly, and we understand that. It's because we had the flexibility to do that in this current $30 oil and $2 gas price environment. But we have the ability to ramp that capital back up just as quickly and bring production back just as quickly should we see encouragement on the commodity price environment. So we said the first priority right now is balance sheet. That's what we're doing, but we have the ability to ramp it right back up and get back in the game.
Tony D. Vaughn - Executive Vice President-Exploration & Production:
David, I'd draw your attention back to the operating report on page 12. You can just look at our Cana results and the Woodford, and you'll see that we've dropped our time to TD from 40 to 20 days, so we've actually decreased the drill time in half. And after 800 wells, as we've talked about our continuous improvement on the completion side, after 800 wells being drilled and completed, we're still seeing the highest IPs of the history of the Cana-Woodford work.
David R. Tameron - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
All right, thanks. I appreciate that.
David A. Hager - President and Chief Executive Officer:
Thanks, Dave.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Ross Payne with Wells Fargo. Your line is open.
Ross Payne - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
Hey, guys. I think we've worn out the rating agency discussion, but I also wanted to just ask you just a simple question. Are they looking at your metrics excluding EnLink or inclusive of them? Thank you.
Thomas L. Mitchell - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Hey, Ross, it's Tom again. It depends on which one you're dealing with. For the most part, they include it, but they include it in different ways. It's really included on a – even though this is non-recourse debt to Devon, Moody's for instance looks at it as a too-big-to-fail type situation where you would come in and support the credit in the event there were issues. So that's largely how they look at it. S&P takes them down one notch from where we are and looks at it a little bit differently.
Ross Payne - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
Okay. Thanks, guys.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Jon Wolff with Jefferies. Jon Wolff, your line is open.
Jonathan D. Wolff - Jefferies LLC:
Hey, guys. Looking at the $2.4 billion available of liquidity on the unsecured credit facility, it had been $3 billion prior. I was wondering if something was drawn, maybe commercial paper termination, or was it related to the facility being reduced? That's question number one.
Thomas L. Mitchell - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
There are a lot of moving parts going through the end of the year to make payments on Felix. So the only change from our $3 billion capacity is that we paid down about $300 million of commercial paper. So that's the only thing. So net-net, your net available liquidity is pretty much close to what you saw in the ops report.
Jonathan D. Wolff - Jefferies LLC:
Okay.
Thomas L. Mitchell - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Just shy of $4 billion.
Jonathan D. Wolff - Jefferies LLC:
Got it. So would you say you're still active in the commercial paper market, overnight market?
Thomas L. Mitchell - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
There has been no – it's a little bit more costly, but that's pretty much the case for anybody that's playing the CP market. Our access and our ability to deal with the CP market is unchanged at this point.
Jonathan D. Wolff - Jefferies LLC:
Got it. And then I was a little confused on the mechanics on the rating agencies. Obviously, your investment-grade rating was affirmed by S&P. I guess everyone is waiting on Moody's, and I don't see a Fitch opinion since October. So is it two out of three, or is it either Moody's or S&P that creates the mechanics of...
Thomas L. Mitchell - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Fitch left – and these are conversations between Devon and Fitch. Fitch left our rating at that level. They're not reviewing it currently, so it stands as is and it's not up for review.
Jonathan D. Wolff - Jefferies LLC:
Got it.
Thomas L. Mitchell - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
What they've indicated for the whole group is that they would come out before the end of the month. Exactly when that occurs, it's hard for me to tell you. I think they had one or two more large investment-grade parties that were coming before them here in and around this timeframe right now, and then when they go out will be shortly after that, likely.
Jonathan D. Wolff - Jefferies LLC:
Super helpful, thanks.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Paul Sankey with Wolfe Research. Your line is open.
Paul Sankey - Wolfe Research LLC:
Hi, everyone. It's notable that you've been confident about your asset sales program. Could you just reiterate that because it is so important for this year and we've been hearing quite negative things about the asset market? Thank you.
David A. Hager - President and Chief Executive Officer:
I'll reiterate it. We all feel extremely confident that these assets, from all we understand, are higher quality assets than anyone else has put on the market, including some of those that have recently transacted. And we also feel that there may be other companies that may be coming out with assets later in the year, but we're beating them to the market. So, from all the feedback we get, is that our expectations are very realistic for the timing and for the magnitude of proceeds that we can expect to receive from these assets. We have had significant contact with potential purchasers, even before we get the data rooms out there. As Tom said, it ranges from majors to some well-capitalized independents to a lot of interest from private equity, and they're frankly people who have become comfortable with this price environment and want to make an entry at this point. And the high quality of these assets frankly can be a company-maker type opportunity for some smaller companies. And that's what some of these people are looking at, frankly, is they can start a whole company around one or more of these assets and have a very bright future. So you never know for sure obviously until you transact, but all the feedback we have gives us tremendous confidence that we're well positioned from a timing standpoint on this and with the quality standpoint to make this happen.
Paul Sankey - Wolfe Research LLC:
That is firmly stated. Thank you very much.
David A. Hager - President and Chief Executive Officer:
Thanks, Paul.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Jeff Healy from AIG. Your line is open.
Jeff Healy - American International Group, Inc.:
Hi, guys. I just want to follow up again on the more balance sheet focus. It looks like in the Devon transaction slide you guys had out that you were going to issue $1.35 billion of equity. I guess I wanted to check to see if that's still the intent. And if the asset sales don't emerge that you think will be able to happen in 2016 maybe look to do more equity to help shore up your balance sheet?
David A. Hager - President and Chief Executive Officer:
We've already issued the equity associated with those transactions, the $1.35 billion. Tom can give you the exact numbers, but they were issued I think a little over $44 for the Felix side and a little over $40 – $41 I think on the Powder River Basin asset. So obviously we had a nice-looking price compared to today. As far as additional equity beyond that, we are focused on our cost reductions. We're focused on the asset sales, on the dividend reduction. I'm not going take anything off the table as far as a possibility, but we think we've taken some very significant steps to really increase the financial strength of the company with the actions we talked about today.
Jeff Healy - American International Group, Inc.:
Got it. Maybe just to follow up then, if we say that Moody's has moved the goal posts and doing their own thing, would you be willing to issue equity to preserve investment-grade if necessary at the other two agencies?
David A. Hager - President and Chief Executive Officer:
As Tom said, we have had our ratings at S&P. We were downgraded one but pretty stable. At Fitch, we're not up for review right now, and we're still at the previous rating there. So we are already – two of the three we already have investment-grade. As Tom also alluded to, the fact that it really doesn't change our business model significantly if we were non-investment-grade. So we are going to do the right decisions for the business, period. We can't just chase investment-grade rating certainly with Moody's when we're uncertain what the criteria are that they're going to use. And so we're going to focus less on that and make sure that we make the right decisions for the business overall, for our shareholders, and for our bondholders.
Jeff Healy - American International Group, Inc.:
Okay, I appreciate it. Thanks a lot
Operator:
There are no further questions at this time. I turn the call back over to the presenter.
Howard J. Thill - Senior Vice President, Communications & Investor Relations:
Okay, we appreciate everyone's interest in Devon. We wish you a good day and please let us know if you have any further questions.
Operator:
This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.
Executives:
Howard J. Thill - Senior VP-Communications & Investor Relations David A. Hager - President and Chief Executive Officer Thomas L. Mitchell - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President Tony D. Vaughn - Executive Vice President-Exploration & Production
Analysts:
Doug Leggate - Bank of America Merrill Lynch Scott Hanold - RBC Capital Markets LLC Jeffrey L. Campbell - Tuohy Brothers Investment Research, Inc. Edward George Westlake - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker) Peter Francis Freeman Kissel - Scotia Howard Weil John P. Herrlin - SG Americas Securities LLC Brian A. Singer - Goldman Sachs & Co. Evan Calio - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC Charles A. Meade - Johnson Rice & Co. LLC Paul Grigel - Macquarie Capital (USA), Inc.
Operator:
Welcome to the Devon Energy Q3 2015 earnings conference call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. This call is being recorded. At this time, I would like to turn the call over to Mr. Howard Thill, Senior Vice President of Communications and Investor Relations. Sir, you may begin.
Howard J. Thill - Senior VP-Communications & Investor Relations:
Thank you, Tiffany, and I'd like to wish everyone good morning as well and welcome to our quarterly conference call. As has become our custom, today's call will largely consist of Q&A, so I hope you've had a chance to look through the third quarter earnings release, including the forward-looking guidance, as well as our detailed ops report. Also on the call today are Dave Hager, President and CEO, Tony Vaughn, Executive Vice President of E&P, Tom Mitchell, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, and a few other members of our senior management team. Finally, I'll remind you that comments and answers to questions on this call will contain plans, forecasts, expectations, and estimates, which are forward-looking statements and under U.S. securities law. Those comments and answers are subject to a number of assumptions, risks, and uncertainties, many of which are beyond our control. These statements are not guarantees of future performance, and actual results might differ materially. For a review of risk factors relating to these statements, please see our 2014 Form 10-K and subsequent 10-Q filings. With that, I will turn the call over to Dave Hager.
David A. Hager - President and Chief Executive Officer:
Thank you, Howard, and welcome, everyone. In the third quarter, Devon continued its trend of outperforming expectations and delivered another excellent performance. Our strategy of operating in North America's best resource plays coupled with a focus on best-in-class execution is generating top-tier results in each of those basins. In our U.S. resource plays, where the majority of capital is being deployed, well performance has consistently exceeded type curve expectations and peer results through higher production rates, lower capital costs, and reduced operating expenses. This operational momentum combined with a strong balance sheet and excellent liquidity positions us as well as anyone to manage through the current industry conditions. These strong operating results translated into several noteworthy highlights for the quarter, including record oil production. We raised our 2015 oil growth outlook for the second time this year. We controlled costs, with operating expenses coming in significantly below guidance, and we are now on pace to save $1 billion of operating and capital costs in 2015 versus our original guidance expectations. We expect this outstanding operational performance to continue as we head into 2016. To deliver maximum capital efficiency with today's market conditions, we plan to preserve operational momentum by dynamically allocating capital to the highest returning, lowest risk development opportunities in each of our core resource plays. Although we are still working through the details of our 2016 capital program, directionally we expect our E&P capital spend to range from $2 billion to $2.5 billion. Other non-E&P capital requirements and dividends are expected to total around $1 billion next year. Importantly, we are focused on balancing capital investment with available cash flows. Our capital programs have tremendous flexibility, and we can rapidly respond to market conditions. We have minimal exposure to long-term service contracts. We have no long-cycle project commitments and negligible leasehold expiration issues. In 2016 the majority of E&P capital will once again be focused in the Delaware Basin, Eagle Ford, Anadarko, and Rockies, the plays with the best economics in our portfolio. With the significant improvements we have seen with well productivity and cost efficiencies, we expect this disciplined, oil-focused capital program to generate low single-digit oil growth in 2016. We will finalize our budget in the coming months and provide detailed guidance with our fourth quarter earnings release. Our strong balance sheet, ample liquidity, and investment-grade credit ratings are key factors during this period of depressed commodity prices. Additionally, we expect distributions from our investment in EnLink to approach $300 million next year, and we have a high degree of confidence in our ability to transact on the sale of Access Pipeline in the first half of 2016. Combined with cash flow from our top-tier upstream assets, we have reliable sources of funding for Devon's 2016 capital program without taking on incremental debt. So in summary, I am quite pleased with the outstanding results Devon has delivered, and I fully expect this trend of outperformance to continue going forward. We have a great collection of world-class assets, and we will continue to get the most out of these assets with superior execution, and we have one of the more advantaged capital structures in the E&P space. As we continue to execute on our disciplined business plan, we are well positioned to generate outsized returns for our shareholders for many years to come. With that, I will turn the call back to Howard for Q&A.
Howard J. Thill - Senior VP-Communications & Investor Relations:
Thanks, Dave. To ensure we get as many people on the call as possible, we ask that you please limit yourself to one question plus a follow-up, and re-prompt as time permits. And with that, Tiffany, we'll take the first question.
Operator:
Your first question comes from the line of Doug Leggate with Bank of America. Your line is open.
Doug Leggate - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Thanks. Good morning, everybody.
David A. Hager - President and Chief Executive Officer:
Good morning, Doug.
Thomas L. Mitchell - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Good morning, Doug.
Doug Leggate - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Dave, I wonder if I could pick up on your capital question, first of all. So low single-digit oil growth, you obviously have a tailwind from the momentum you've got in the oil sands. So I'm just trying to understand. Does that low single digit mean that the Lower 48 grows as well, or is the growth predominantly from the oil sands? And I've got a follow-up, please.
David A. Hager - President and Chief Executive Officer:
Sure, Doug. We obviously do have tailwinds as we move forward into 2016 in the oil sands in Canada, but we also have good growth opportunities in the Delaware Basin. We're confident we're going to be growing volumes there in Q4 of 2015, and we see that momentum continuing on into 2016. We're still finalizing our capital allocation, so we're not going to break out the exact numbers at this point. But we still see a lot of great growth opportunities in the U.S. And it's really just a matter of how much capital – exactly how much capital we put to those programs to see what the growth percentage will be in both areas.
Doug Leggate - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Right, but just to be clear though, when you talk about low single digit, are you trying to signal to us that the Lower 48 will see oil growth as well as the oil sands?
David A. Hager - President and Chief Executive Officer:
All I'm signaling is that overall as a company we're going to have low single-digit oil growth. And we'll break that out for you, Doug, on the Q4 earnings call.
Doug Leggate - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Okay, thanks. My follow-up is there's obviously a lot of resource detail, type curves, and so on this quarter. I'd like to home in on one issue, if I may, which is the increase in the unrisked locations, particularly the Wolfcamp, given that you still haven't provided any risked locations there but you have increased the unrisked locations. It's now the biggest backlog, I guess, unrisked backlog in your portfolio. So I'm just trying to understand. What is it going to take for you to start more aggressively allocating capital to that area? And how do the economics stack up, for example, relative to the Delaware and the Bone Spring? And I'll leave it there, thanks.
Tony D. Vaughn - Executive Vice President-Exploration & Production:
Good morning, Doug. This is Tony Vaughn here. I'll take a stab at this. Doug, as we've approached our work in the Delaware Basin, we've really highlighted the second Bone Spring and the Delaware Sands as probably being the two most prolific from a rate-of-return perspective. That's where a lot of our focus has been through 2015. We had done enough appraisal work to start building our 2016 program going forward, but you'll still have a nice component of the second Bone Spring with very high returns. We'll probably see us have a little bit more influence from the Leonard interval in 2016. We've got that appraised. You can see in the operating report we've had some good Leonard wells that are coming on. So we'll have a couple of, what I would anticipate anyway, a couple of rig lines dedicated to the Leonard. We're also contemplating really how to appropriately develop the stacked-pay sands. And the Wolfcamp's got up to four different intervals. We have assessed that. We're getting a lot of industry activity on the Texas side of the basin moving right up to our play. Now we're starting to see the industry – and then Devon has drilled about four or five Wolfcamp wells this year. So we're understanding the play. We still find that the economics for the Wolfcamp are slightly disadvantaged in comparison to the second Bone Spring, the Delaware, and the Leonard sands just because of the drilling and the complete costs. So we're incorporating that. I still don't think it will have a large influence on our 2016 activity, with the one exception of when we get towards the latter parts of 2016, we will have – we will be incorporating, for lack of a better way to put it, more of a super-pad type concept, which will be incorporating the Wolfcamp all the way up through the Delaware Sands and really trying to take a holistic development concept into our business.
David A. Hager - President and Chief Executive Officer:
Doug, I think the challenge – I'd just add. We have such strong results and what we think is a little bit better economics in the Bone Spring and now the Leonard and to some degree the Delaware Sands that we haven't been as actively developing the Wolfcamp. We know it's there. I look at it as having a lot of option value out there for us right now. But the resource is there, there's no question. We're just focusing on dollars on the highest return.
Doug Leggate - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
That's quite a choice there, Dave. Thanks very much indeed.
David A. Hager - President and Chief Executive Officer:
Thanks, Doug.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of the Scott Hanold with RBC Capital Markets. Your line is open.
Scott Hanold - RBC Capital Markets LLC:
Thanks and good morning, guys. I was wondering maybe if we could stay on the Delaware for a minute. Can you update us on progress with infrastructure out there and what you all think needs to be done as you go forward in growth? Obviously, the growth that you guys are projecting for 4Q in the Delaware is pretty substantial. Could you just talk about what EnLink is doing there for you guys and what you plan here over the next 12 to 18 months?
David A. Hager - President and Chief Executive Officer:
I think we'll let Tony answer that, and I may add on if there's anything additional.
Tony D. Vaughn - Executive Vice President-Exploration & Production:
Okay, I'll be happy to, Dave. Scott, I think it's a great question. As we've talked about in the past, infrastructure in the Delaware Basin has been a challenge. Kind of is specific or more localized in different areas. We've had some substantial relief in that as we've tied in a large portion of what we call our Cotton Draw area into a DCP plant called Zia II. That has allowed us to move a lot more volumes. We're also starting to see a few more right-of-way permit approvals come forward, which is going to allow us to continue to bring wells on. So it's getting better I think in 2016. The outlook is much better. We are doing a really good job of planning our business I think to take advantage of the infrastructure and the permits that we have in place right now. You know to go back and take a look at our Delaware performance on a standalone basis, it's been a little bit lumpy. And in Q1, our volume growth from Q1 into Q2, it was exceptional. If I remember right, it was over 20% growth just on a quarter-to-quarter basis. Q3, we had less development wells that we brought on. The timing of those wells wasn't positive. And again, the tie-in to the Zia plant caused a lot of starts and stops to our business, so we had a lot of downtime. So really our oil volume growth, we actually saw a little bit of a downturn in Q3 on oil volume growth. I'll have to remind you, though, that the wells that we continue to bring on are every bit as good as they've been in the past. As we look forward into Q4, we'll have more of an influence from the low-risk development type work that we do in southern Lea and Eddy counties. We've got less impact of infrastructure that's coming to us by the end of the year. And we're working with the BLM. The BLM is still going to be a little bit of a challenge there for permit approvals. But really, just look at the Delaware over the course of the year, and I think we saw something like 30% volume growth from year over year and I think about 50% oil growth. So it's still our most active area and one that we have a lot of emphasis on.
Scott Hanold - RBC Capital Markets LLC:
I appreciate that color, thanks. And my follow-up is on the Meramec play. It seems like you guys and the industry as well in general have seen better results, and you all pointed out to I guess lower well cost on top of that. And can you just talk about like how that fits into the portfolio on a rate-of-return basis and where that inventory could go? I mean right now, I think you've talked about 500 risked locations. But ultimately with some downspacing potential, where do you think that could go?
Tony D. Vaughn - Executive Vice President-Exploration & Production:
Scott, we're real pleased with the Meramec, as is the industry right now. And we've participated in I believe about 20 wells to date. The industry's got about 100 wells down in the Meramec. I think in a lot of ways, you could look at the Meramec play as already moved through the appraisal process and really is getting into more of the development phase. When we look at the commercial expectation for the Meramec, it really competes in our mind with our top-tier returns from DeWitt County, the Parkman in the Powder River Basin, and also the southern portions of Lea and Eddy County in the heart of the Delaware Basin. So we think the Meramec is going to be another top-tier asset for us. We've characterized about 500 locations there. In my own mind, that's conservative. And as we drill that out, it will have the potential to greatly improve. So it's going to be one of our go-to areas as we go forward. It's slightly more commercial than, say, the good work that we do in the Woodford right now and the Cana area.
Scott Hanold - RBC Capital Markets LLC:
Okay, and will you be willing to provide a multiple on where that 500 locations could go? Are we talking double, triple? What do you think the upside range on that could be?
Tony D. Vaughn - Executive Vice President-Exploration & Production:
I'd probably be hesitant to quantify that right now. I think it's still early in the play for us to do that. And we'll keep some meat on the bone there and communicate as we go forward, but we'll continue to keep you abreast of that. But in my own mind from a technical perspective, I'm highly encouraged that that play will continue to develop for Devon.
Scott Hanold - RBC Capital Markets LLC:
Appreciate it, thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Jeffrey Campbell with Tuohy Brothers. Your line is open.
Jeffrey L. Campbell - Tuohy Brothers Investment Research, Inc.:
Good morning and congratulations on the strong performance. My first question was your continued LOE cost reduction is quite impressive. Can you rank order what can continue to drive costs down going forward?
Tony D. Vaughn - Executive Vice President-Exploration & Production:
This is Tony again. I'll talk a little bit about that. One of the things, Jeff, that we knew going into the downturn here that LOE would be a little bit sticky and would not drop as rapid as, say, our capital efficiencies could bring. As you can see from our operating report this particular quarter, we've had outstanding results on LOE in terms of both dollars and LOE per BOE. So I think we're really moving right into the portion of the work that we're doing that's offering the most drop in costs right now. We're optimistic that this will be sustainable and will move into 2016. So specific to your question, I think a lot of the work that we are doing, building out infrastructure in the Delaware Basin, Anadarko Basin, some of the heavily, more intensely capital areas right now are really providing a benefit in our ability to handle water both more efficiently and more cost effectively. So we're handling a lot more fluid these days. And so I'd say water is the big component of that. I'll also say our focus on artificial lift is really having the opportunity to drive costs down now. We're putting a lot more attention to our chemical programs, which is reducing our intervention rate, reducing workover costs going forward. So we're optimistic; we're not done with our LOE work. We've got a lot of joint efforts between our supply chain group and our technical teams, looking for not only efficiencies, but also taking advantage of the market conditions. So I think I'd look for an improvement as we go into 2016.
David A. Hager - President and Chief Executive Officer:
As we focus our dollars really into just more pure development, and so we're concentrating our drilling in specific areas, that's what really allows you in many cases to lower the LOE, where you don't have scattered drilling across a larger area. But instead, you're in a very concentrated geographic location where there are synergies in the infrastructure that you have to put in from well to well. And that's what we're doing largely in 2016, and one of the reasons we're optimistic we can continue to attack the LOE.
Jeffrey L. Campbell - Tuohy Brothers Investment Research, Inc.:
Thank you for that thorough answer. My other question is, this quarter's operation report on the Leonard Shale expanded on its three-zone potential. Can you give us some idea of what percentage of your 60-acre position has three-zone potential? Does most of it have two-zone potential, and is there any meaningful mix differences between these zones?
Tony D. Vaughn - Executive Vice President-Exploration & Production:
You know what, I can't give you a specific answer for that. I would think in our Leonard, when we look at it, I know a good portion of it has got the two-zone potential, and I think there's some general localized area that had the three-zone potential as well. When we characterize the opportunity going forward in our unrisked locations, we're thinking we could see up to 20 wells per section in three different zones, so high confidence in two intervals with some localized areas of three different intervals in the Leonard.
Jeffrey L. Campbell - Tuohy Brothers Investment Research, Inc.:
Do they all pretty much behave the same way in terms of oil mix, NGL, that sort of thing?
David A. Hager - President and Chief Executive Officer:
Jeff, I think it's probably a little early to comment on that. We don't have just a lot of specific data to give you more of a fact-based answer. So it's probably a little bit early to define that.
Jeffrey L. Campbell - Tuohy Brothers Investment Research, Inc.:
Okay, that's fair.
David A. Hager - President and Chief Executive Officer:
You would think intuitively they probably would because they're very similar depths, but we do need to do some more appraisal to know the answer for sure.
Jeffrey L. Campbell - Tuohy Brothers Investment Research, Inc.:
That's fair. We'll look forward to that. Thanks very much.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Ed Westlake with Credit Suisse. Your line is open.
Edward George Westlake - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker):
Good morning and congratulations on all the good stuff that's happening across the company. I just had a question around CapEx, if I may. Your guidance for 4Q E&P is $800 million to $900 million, and you've got $2 billion to $2.5 billion E&P for next year, which is another 30% reduction. I just wanted to get a sense. Obviously, industry deflation has already happened a lot this year. How do you get those costs down further? And maybe give us some sense of how much is deflation and how much is activity from here. Thanks.
Tony D. Vaughn - Executive Vice President-Exploration & Production:
This is Tony. Let me describe I think what you're probably seeing in there. So in Q4, we have what I would classify or call non-repeatable type investments. And we have a fair amount of exploration activity and appraisal activity that really were initiated in the beginning of the quarter and will be essentially closed out by the time we get into 2016. We're doing some appraisal work on the North Texas horizontal refracs. We've got the ability to control that. We also have some non-recurring capital items in Jackfish associated with three new pads, one at J1 and two at J2. So there's a fair amount of spend in Q4 that won't be repeated in 2016. I would also have to tell you that when you look at the operations report, we commented generally on how many rigs we had running at the close of the quarter. But since then, we've dropped rigs in the Rockies and the Powder down to one. We've dropped down from 10 rigs in the Delaware down to eight and may go to seven. We're still trying to contemplate what our 2016 spend is, but we know that capital spend in 2016 is going to be dramatically different than it is in 2015. We're very aware of that. We've got a good history of performing to our capital forecasts. So we're on top of it, Ed, and we're working it down to be consistent with the business environment that we'll talk more about in the next call.
Edward George Westlake - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker):
Okay. And then coming back to the Delaware, these super-pads are going to be presumably very efficient. So I don't know if you've got a sense of, other than the deflation in the industry, what cost reduction you could get as you go to full development mode of three zones in the Leonard and Bone Spring and other zones.
Tony D. Vaughn - Executive Vice President-Exploration & Production:
Ed, we've got a project team that was stood up I think probably a quarter ago, and they're really trying to understand and explore the opportunity there. It's really a lot of different scenarios and variations that they're contemplating, so it's probably early to comment on specifically what our expectation would be. But I think just to describe that, we're getting ready to pilot in the fourth quarter of 2016. We'll be active on a first super-pad, where we'll have up to 12 wells in a quarter section. And as Dave mentioned just a moment ago, the efficiencies gained on that kind of a development are substantial we believe. So we could start turning our operations to having less permitting obligations or challenges just because our surface disturbance would be much less. We could see the opportunity for batch drilling going forward, not really having to have time associated with substantial rig moves since everything would be on a pad. We would have the ability to do simultaneous operations and have some fracking work going on while we could be producing. So we're trying to understand and define that, and we'll have a keen eye on maximizing present value or returns as we think through that. So it will be a balance between size and scale and efficiency and keeping some predictability in our rate growth and cash flow growth that we'll be focused on.
Edward George Westlake - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker):
And just to be clear, the rigs you're dropping in the Delaware, that's really because of efficiency gains, or are you lowering the number of completions?
Tony D. Vaughn - Executive Vice President-Exploration & Production:
It is associated with efficiency gains. And Ed, that's really our growth area and high focused area. We'll keep all the rigs running in the low-risk development areas that are offering the greatest returns. So we're starting to get so much efficiencies out of the rigs that we've got now just from continuous improvement. I guess I'd also say both on the, not only just on the rig activity, but also on our frac crews as well. So the pace of our business is ever increasing, like it always has.
David A. Hager - President and Chief Executive Officer:
I'd say, Ed, that type discussion holds true not only in the Delaware, but also holds true in many of our areas where you've seen throughout our operations report where we have been improving the drilling efficiency significantly. We've done it in the Eagle Ford. We're doing it in the Anadarko Basin and the Cana and the Meramec. So we are getting a lot more productivity per rig. And frankly, we probably need to get away from talking about number of rigs at some point and talk about number of wells that we drill because that's a much better indicator of our activity levels. We're just getting a lot more productivity than previously you see. You just don't need as many rigs to accomplish a program.
Edward George Westlake - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker):
Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Peter Kissel with Howard Weil. Your line is open.
Peter Francis Freeman Kissel - Scotia Howard Weil:
Hi, guys. How are you? Thanks for taking my questions. Just to start off with maybe Tony, following on the prior question that you alluded to the answer here, but with regards to Jackfish, what's the total spend level in 2015 now that you're coming close to the end of the year? And looking at 2016, is that $150 million to $200 million still a base case spend level we should be expecting?
Tony D. Vaughn - Executive Vice President-Exploration & Production:
I think, Peter, if I recall right, we're going to spend roughly about $600 million, $650 million in 2015. We're still putting our thoughts together for 2016. But that number will go materially down, probably in the range of something approaching $300 million, maybe a little less than $300 million if I recall.
Peter Francis Freeman Kissel - Scotia Howard Weil:
Got you. Okay, thanks, Tony, and then maybe more of a broad-based question. Portfolio optimization, rationalization has been very successful for you guys over the last two years. Can you please just update us on where you stand with the upstream assets, in particular any sales you're looking at, any acquisitions? I know that's a little tricky given your focus on preserving capital at this time. And then maybe how does your ownership of EnLink units factor in here as a source of capital?
David A. Hager - President and Chief Executive Officer:
Hi, Peter. This is Dave. First off, we're very happy with our portfolio. We think that we have really significantly transformed the portfolio over the past few years divesting of the Gulf of Mexico and international, the Canadian conventional, the non-core U.S. So now we really try to focus our assets in the best portion of the best plays in onshore North America, and we think now we have that kind of portfolio. So we're first off very, very satisfied with where we stand. If we were to look to add anything, and we always are out there evaluating if there's anything worthwhile to consider, if we were to add anything, it would have to be something that would compete for capital internally with our own opportunities, which again are located in the best parts of some of the best plays. And so it would have to be very high quality before we would consider adding anything. There are always some things that I think, especially right now, that are not attracting capital in our portfolio, significant amounts of capital. And if that condition persists over a number of years, then we will consider moving those assets out of the portfolio. We think we can generate the most value when we are investing funds and are getting returns significantly above the cost of capital. And so if we're not in a position where we think we'll be investing in an area for the foreseeable future, then over time you can see that as a candidate for divestment. That's the philosophy we've always taken and that's the philosophy we'll continue to take. As far as EnLink as a source of funds, we really like our position in EnLink a lot. We think it's a strong company. We think the company is poised to grow. We have no plans for any current unit sales in EnLink. We look at that asset just as we look at all the other assets in our portfolio.
Peter Francis Freeman Kissel - Scotia Howard Weil:
All right, thanks, Dave, and congrats on a great update.
David A. Hager - President and Chief Executive Officer:
Thank you, Peter.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of John Herrlin with Société Générale. Your line is open.
John P. Herrlin - SG Americas Securities LLC:
Yes, hi. I was wondering if you could give more detail on the enhanced completions in the Bone Spring, what you did different.
David A. Hager - President and Chief Executive Officer:
I think, John, this is Dave. I'll kick it off to start with. I think the main thing that we have been doing over the past few quarters, you've seen the results, is to really increase the sand concentrations significantly. We went from around 600 pounds of sand per foot a few quarters ago, we experimented up to as high as 3,000 pounds of sand per lateral foot. I think we've backed off now to what we think is the optimum amount of sand, which in most cases in the basin part of the play for the Bone Spring is probably somewhere between 1,500 and 2,000 pounds of sand per lateral foot. But I think, Tony, you might have a little bit more detail on that. The main thing is we are really just concentrating on the highest areas and just getting great returns in those areas by concentrating on some of the most productive areas for the Bone Spring.
Tony D. Vaughn - Executive Vice President-Exploration & Production:
I think that's right, Dave. So, John, it's really a combination of a lot of things, but we've got some great work that's ongoing with our subsurface teams. We're integrating all of our data much more rapidly and better with a lot more influence from the data. I think we've told you in the past, we're taking a lot more full-bore cores and pressure, and we've got fiber optics. And so we're having a much better understanding about the subsurface. We're also incorporating that into our frac design and modeling work. And then finally, I'll point out that the execution of our work on the completion side of the business is also dramatically improving. We've stood up our 24-hour, seven day a week WellCon center probably about 18 months ago, and that now has stations involving all of our frac operations and flowback operations. So we've got a unique – what I think is a complete package that's driving the results that we see. I think what I'm most proud about from our technical teams is over the past two quarters, we really own the top completions per public data in all the basins that we're working. So we're really doing a lot of good technical work with good execution that's driving our results up. And so I think if you go back and look at our first quarter of this year, second quarter, we don't have third quarter data in, but we probably have at least the top 50% to top 70% – 75% of the top 10 IPs in the basins we work. So we're doing a lot of good, thoughtful work that's leading to that.
John P. Herrlin - SG Americas Securities LLC:
Great, thanks. Last one from me is on the Parkman shot of 3-D, when will that actually be usable, first half?
Tony D. Vaughn - Executive Vice President-Exploration & Production:
John, we've got the data in-house, and it's being incorporated into our work right now. We've actually got great 3-D coverage across that entire Parkman/Turner play. It's influencing what we do. If you go back and look at the work that our technical teams have delivered, we're drilling long laterals there and exceeding our type curve performance. So all that data is yielding some outstanding results.
John P. Herrlin - SG Americas Securities LLC:
Great, thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Brian Singer with Goldman Sachs. Your line is open.
Brian A. Singer - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Thank you, good morning.
David A. Hager - President and Chief Executive Officer:
Good morning, Brian.
Tony D. Vaughn - Executive Vice President-Exploration & Production:
Good morning, Brian.
Brian A. Singer - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
In the Anadarko Basin, you talked about 60 wells coming online from the Gordon Row area. Can you just refresh us on your working interest there, and then how you think about the production impact over the next few quarters and what the oil versus gas versus NGLs mix is likely to be?
Tony D. Vaughn - Executive Vice President-Exploration & Production:
Brian, this is Tony. You're right, we're working on the Gordon Row right now and doing some really good, thoughtful work. We have a rough working interest of 50%. We're in the AMI with Cimarex and working that relationship really well. Our percent oil cut is consistent with what we've been seeing. It's starting to get a little bit more rich, but we're going to see about – I think we've actually put on our IP at about 80 million-plus – 80 million to 90 million cubic feet per day gross already from the wells that we have delivered into production right now. And I think the ratio of liquids and gas is consistent with what we've been seeing.
David A. Hager - President and Chief Executive Officer:
We have our type curves out there, Brian, and we have about 5% condensate on it. I don't have the type curve sitting in front of me. I know it's in all of our investor presentations. So I can't give you the NGL and gas, but I think Scott has it here. It's 40% NGLs and that means about 55% gas. Coody just gave me the word here. .
Brian A. Singer - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Great, thank you. And then to maybe a little bit more off the beaten path, you highlighted in the ops update the horizontal refrac opportunity in the Barnett Shale. Can you just talk about how committed you are to spending capital on those in the context of all else that's in your portfolio, and whether that lowers the decline rate from the relatively consistent decline that we've been seeing on a sequential basis in the Barnett, or whether it just keeps it at that level?
Tony D. Vaughn - Executive Vice President-Exploration & Production:
Brian, we are committed to understanding the opportunity. And so I would say that we're trying to fund enough opportunities or get enough repeatable results in the play to understand what that development opportunity would be. So it's something that we're putting some investment dollars into in Q4 of this year. That will probably carry into Q1, really just trying to define and understand what the refrac opportunity would be, not only in North Texas, but it's a great library for us to understand what it would be across the rest of our portfolio. So when you look at it, I think we've commented on that it's got meaningful returns. We probably need, at the low gas price that we're seeing now, we'd like to see more gas price to have it compete effectively with some of the other good opportunities that we have. So we're really just trying to understand the opportunity through the appraisal process, and then we'll take a pause and see how that competes.
Brian A. Singer - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Great, thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Evan Calio with Morgan Stanley. Your line is open.
Evan Calio - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
Good morning, guys, and strong results again. My first question on the Access dropdown, the language was modified to be as early as the first half of 2016. Can you discuss any structuring alternatives? And if unavailable to draw for cash, would that alter your 2016 capital spending in any way?
David A. Hager - President and Chief Executive Officer:
We believe that we can drop it. And so we think that we can drop it to EnLink. I have also said that we are taking efforts out there to understand what the market is also for that asset outside of that. But our preferred option is to drop that asset to EnLink, and we believe that we can drop it. Now if their situation would change dramatically, it would really have to change dramatically for this to take place. But if it were to change dramatically, since we're including that in our anticipated cash flow for 2016, then we'd look at adjusting if that situation were to occur. But we think that's a very unlikely outcome. We're very confident that we are going to be able to transact on Access in the first half of 2016.
Evan Calio - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
Great, I appreciate that. And my second question, it looks like you're taking your Haley pad completion design and applying it across your Cana-Woodford. I know it's a harder question, but how much of the Haley 50% initial performance above the Cana-Woodford type curve can be attributed to better rock quality and how much to completion design? I know it's a hard question. I'm trying to get a sense of how much this performance could transfer to other areas of the basin, like Gordon Row, where you'll be active upcoming here.
Tony D. Vaughn - Executive Vice President-Exploration & Production:
Evan, this is Tony. I really think it's got a lot to do with the good subsurface work that the guys are doing, the completion design work that we're doing. We've got enough data points out there where I think we understand the rock really well. We've got it mapped. We've got a earth model over that. So I think the variation and the improvement that we continue to see is really associated with the technical work that both the Devon-Cimarex team jointly have put into our designs.
David A. Hager - President and Chief Executive Officer:
It's the completion design, we think.
Evan Calio - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
Great, I look forward to seeing those results upcoming.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Charles Meade with Johnson Rice. Your line is open.
Charles A. Meade - Johnson Rice & Co. LLC:
Good morning, Dave and Tony. If I could go back to a little bit more of the bigger picture here with your comments, Dave, about 2016, I believe you've laid out a similar scenario, at least as far back as September, about E&P CapEx of $2 billion to $2.5 billion, and getting you flat to up slightly. Can you talk about how that has changed maybe or evolved over the last few months, if at all? And should we be reading any directionality into your comments this morning about prospects for 2016?
David A. Hager - President and Chief Executive Officer:
It should be identical to what I said and have been saying. I said in the second quarter call and I've been saying it when meeting with investors on the road. So don't imply any difference at all. We are exactly where we were. The only exception that I'd say is we keep raising the bar, darn it. We keep moving production into 2015. We keep outperforming here in 2015. So that means we're going to be delivering this on a higher 2015 volume. So that's the only difference that I would say. But we're going to keep outperforming and we plan to keep doing that for a long time.
Charles A. Meade - Johnson Rice & Co. LLC:
Got it. So I think I get your point, is that the growth number may be the same, but the absolute level that you're going to achieve with that $2 billion to $2.5 billion keeps moving up.
David A. Hager - President and Chief Executive Officer:
Yes.
Charles A. Meade - Johnson Rice & Co. LLC:
Got it, and then another question. You guys, and it's been a theme in the Q&A here that you've had a lot of positive elements all across your U.S. unconventional portfolio. But can you give us a little context or perhaps some insight into how you're thinking about which of these plays or opportunities, which of them rank most high on attractiveness or rate of change in attractiveness and also on materiality to Devon in 2016?
David A. Hager - President and Chief Executive Officer:
Yeah and I'll have Tony go through that with you, but I'd like to take this chance just to make a comment too, that you have seen obviously tremendous improvements. And we talk a lot about improved, higher sand concentrations and lower drilling costs and all of that. But I want each of you out there to understand. The reason we're doing this is we have the absolute desire to be the best operator in each of our core areas. We talk a lot around here about not being one of the best. We talk about being the best and an intolerance of mediocrity, and those are the words I say to you guys. It's the words I say internally, and I can tell you there's a lot of energy in the company around that entire notion. And when you have that kind of attitude I think in a company, that's when you really start delivering the kind of results you've been seeing out of the last few quarters. And so that's why we have confidence that we're going to continue to do this. We're not sure exactly what's going to be the next thing that comes down the line to improve our results, but I can tell you we're absolutely focused on being the best applier of whatever it would be. So with that, I'll turn it over to Tony to talk more specific on returns for each of the areas.
Tony D. Vaughn - Executive Vice President-Exploration & Production:
Charles, if I just had to categorize generally, I would say our DeWitt County returns in the Eagle Ford are consistently high, as well as the southern portion of our Delaware Basin work, as well as the Parkman in the Rockies. Those have been really what I would call our Tier 1 returns, and that's really where the capital is moving towards. Just slightly behind those returns would be our Cana-Woodford. And again, the Woodford project continues to improve. Our well costs have dropped from $8 million down to about $7 million. And as we talked earlier, the IPs and EURs continue to improve. So the Cana-Woodford project is competing in the portfolio right now. I think what will emerge with additional data will be this Meramec play. I think it will move into the top tier. It will elbow its way in. So we'll have what I think are four very high returns that are top tier in the U.S. And behind that we'll have the Cana-Woodford, which has got great repeatability, predictability. And behind that are really the projects that are not garnering any funding right now, and that would be the southern Midland Basin. It would be the Mississippian play, Barnett outside of the appraisal work that we're doing on the refrac. So that's how we look at the projects from a return and really generally how we allocate capital.
Charles A. Meade - Johnson Rice & Co. LLC:
Got it. And so, Tony, on the question of scale or materiality to you guys, it sounds like you roughly went in order there or the order I would have guessed that really Eagle Ford and Permian are the biggest scale of those high-quality ones, and that the Meramec is – that's one where the arrow is pointing up the most. Is that the right read?
Tony D. Vaughn - Executive Vice President-Exploration & Production:
I think that's it, Charles. Really, our most intense focus area for 2016 will definitely be the Permian Basin and our work in the Delaware. And of course, the Eagle Ford is going to continue with the work that we've been doing there. What we'd like to see happen is really increasing the materiality in both the Meramec and the Parkman in the Rockies. Those are two good plays that have great returns, as you mentioned, just not quite as material to us today.
Charles A. Meade - Johnson Rice & Co. LLC:
That's great color, Tony. Thanks a lot.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Paul Grigel with Macquarie. Your line is open.
Paul Grigel - Macquarie Capital (USA), Inc.:
Hi, good morning, just a quick follow-up on 2016. I realize there's not full guidance out. But could you guys provide any color on the trajectory throughout the year as it stands now on both oil and gas? And then also if the low single-digit growth, is that exit rate to exit rate, or complete year over year, full year over full year?
David A. Hager - President and Chief Executive Officer:
That's full-year 2016 compared to full-year 2015. And we're not to the point yet on this where we're going to be giving quarterly guidance on it, but we're going to cover all that kind of thing in more detail on the Q4 call.
Paul Grigel - Macquarie Capital (USA), Inc.:
Okay, I thought I would try. Turning now on the operation front to the Eagle Ford, you guys have talked about the staggered development concept as well as the upper Eagle Ford. Could you provide a little bit more color on what you're seeing there, but also what you would need to see to step up activity in that area from those tests?
Tony D. Vaughn - Executive Vice President-Exploration & Production:
Paul, I'm glad you mentioned that. That's an exciting project that we have working right now. And our technical team has done some outstanding subsurface work to recognize the opportunity. We've put a lot of data and reservoir characterization work together. We built our models. We believe that the staggered opportunity just inside the lower Eagle Ford offers upside to the resource base that we've talked about. That's in addition to the lower Eagle Ford that we've described in our past couple of calls. So we think the resource base has got the opportunity to grow. We've highlighted that in our operating report now. I'm pleased to report, while it's early, our first staggered lateral results in our central core area in DeWitt County saw, with a slight offset to an existing producing well, near original reservoir pressure. So I think what we're going to see is the ability to come back and take all of our undrilled areas, go to a staggered approach, increase the ultimate recovery and the total value of the field. And I think we'll also have an opportunity to come back into areas that have already been drilled and lay in some staggered laterals in addition to that. And couple that with the opportunity to put a stacked lateral in the upper Eagle Ford on top of that, I think there's still a lot of resource work that our technical team is excited about right now.
Paul Grigel - Macquarie Capital (USA), Inc.:
Great, thank you.
Operator:
Your last question comes from the line of Jeffrey Campbell with Tuohy Brothers. Your line is open.
Jeffrey L. Campbell - Tuohy Brothers Investment Research, Inc.:
Thanks for letting me get back in for one more. I just wanted to clear up one thing real quickly, and that's with regard to the infrastructure expansion in the Eagle Ford. Is that essentially an aspirational number for Devon's future production, or do you see any third-party volumes getting into there?
Tony D. Vaughn - Executive Vice President-Exploration & Production:
The infrastructure volumes we have available, those are the numbers that are actually available. Now whether we realize that volume or not depends on the amount of capital that we put against the program. So we're just showing what the system capacity is in the Eagle Ford for our production. And at this point, we don't have any current plans, I don't think, to put any third-party volumes in that. That's just within the Eagle Ford, and that's our capacity within the DeWitt County, what our capacity is.
Jeffrey L. Campbell - Tuohy Brothers Investment Research, Inc.:
Okay, great. Thanks for clearing that up.
Howard J. Thill - Senior VP-Communications & Investor Relations:
Jeff, this is Howard. Jeff, we've had a lot of questions on the capacities. The reason we put that in there, not to signal anything else, it's just a matter of what Dave said around commodity price and whether we add additional capital in there, that there is no bottleneck obviously in commodity price and our activity levels.
Jeffrey L. Campbell - Tuohy Brothers Investment Research, Inc.:
Thanks for clearing that up.
Operator:
There are no further questions in queue. I turn the conference back over to our presenters.
Howard J. Thill - Senior VP-Communications & Investor Relations:
Thank you, Tiffany, and we appreciate everyone's attention and investment in Devon Energy. We hope you have a wonderful day and we'll see you on the road soon. Thanks much.
Operator:
This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.
Executives:
Howard J. Thill - Senior VP-Communications & Investor Relations David A. Hager - President and Chief Executive Officer Tony D. Vaughn - Executive Vice President-Exploration & Production Thomas L. Mitchell - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President Darryl G. Smette - Executive Vice President, Marketing, Facilities, Pipeline and Supply Chain
Analysts:
Evan Calio - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC Edward George Westlake - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker) David R. Tameron - Wells Fargo Securities LLC Michael J. Rowe - Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, Inc. Subash Chandra - Guggenheim Securities LLC Ryan Todd - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc. Sameer Uplenchwar - GMP Securities LP Scott Hanold - RBC Capital Markets LLC Doug Leggate - Bank of America Merrill Lynch John P. Herrlin - SG Americas Securities LLC David Martin Heikkinen - Heikkinen Energy Advisors Megan E. Repine - FBR Capital Markets & Co. Brian A. Singer - Goldman Sachs & Co. Phillip J. Jungwirth - BMO Capital Markets (United States) James Sullivan - Alembic Global Advisors LLC
Operator:
Welcome to Devon Energy's second quarter 2015 earnings conference call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. This call is being recorded. At this time, I would like to turn the call over to Mr. Howard Thill, Senior Vice President of Communications and Investor Relations. Sir, you may begin.
Howard J. Thill - Senior VP-Communications & Investor Relations:
Thank you, Michelle, and good morning everyone. I hope you've all had a chance to review our operations report and management commentary at devonenergy.com, as today's call will largely consist of questions and answers. Also on the call today are Dave Hager, President and CEO; Tony Vaughn, Executive Vice President of E&P; Tom Mitchell, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer and a few other members of our senior management team. Finally, I'd remind you that comments and answers to questions on this call will contain plans, forecasts, expectations, and estimates which are forward-looking statements under US securities law. These comments and answers are subject to a number of assumptions, risks and uncertainties, many of which are beyond our control. These statements are not guarantees of future performance. For a review of risk factors relating to these estimates, see our 2014 Form 10-K and subsequent 10-Q filings. With that, I'll turn the call over to Dave Hager.
David A. Hager - President and Chief Executive Officer:
Thank you, Howard, and welcome, everyone. The second quarter saw Devon deliver another high quality performance, continuing a trend that has generated top quartile results for our shareholders for the past several quarters. Before we jump into the Q&A, I would like to highlight a few key messages I would hope you would take away from our earnings materials. First, as many of you know, I assumed the role of President and CEO August 1, and I want to be clear, the overall strategy that has led to Devon's recent outperformance remains unchanged. We will continue to operate in North America's best resource plays, deliver superior execution and maintain a high degree of financial strength. As you can see from our second quarter results, Devon's premier asset portfolio continues to achieve significant operational improvements. Our three most active plays, the Delaware Basin, Eagle Ford and the Anadarko Basin all delivered outstanding well performance that exceeded type curve expectations with substantially lower well costs and reduced operating expenses. We expect this outstanding operational performance to continue. Our technical teams are laser focused on getting the most out of our advantaged asset base with superior execution. This unwavering pursuit of excellence means we will continue to improve drilling times, maximize value per well with industry-leading completion designs and optimize base production with best in class field operations. Importantly, we are keenly focused on maintaining our strong balance sheet and we have the flexibility in our capital programs through scalable operations, minimal exposure to long term service contracts, no long term project commitments, and negligible leasehold expiration issues to do just that. Additionally, our advantaged capital structure is enhanced with the unique optionality EnLink provides with distributions approaching $300 million annually and the potential for dropdown proceeds. Given these benefits, we believe that in the current commodity price and service cost environment, we can deliver growing oil production in 2016 compared to 2015 exit rates, while spending within total cash inflows. So in summary, we are pleased with the way Devon is positioned to successfully weather the current environment and prosper in the future. Undoubtedly in the E&P business, you need great assets, outstanding operations and a strong balance sheet to deliver sustainable long term growth and differentiating returns for investors. With Devon, you have all three of these winning qualities. With that, I will turn the call back to Howard for Q&A.
Howard J. Thill - Senior VP-Communications & Investor Relations:
Thanks, Dave. To ensure that we get as many people on the call as possible, we'd ask that you please limit yourself to one question with an associated follow-up and with enough time at the end, you can reprompt and we'll additional questions from the participants. So, Michelle, with that we're ready to take the first question.
Operator:
Your first question comes from Evan Calio from Morgan Stanley. Your line is open.
Evan Calio - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
Hey, good morning, guys. Another strong operations update today.
David A. Hager - President and Chief Executive Officer:
Thanks, Evan.
Evan Calio - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
First, you've reiterated your full-year crude production outlook, but there are a few moving pieces. And I guess first, what drove the decision to dial back the Eagle Ford, given what must be strong economics at the strip, and what would you and your partner need to see to either complete some of those DUCs you're building or kind of add rigs there? I have a follow-up, please.
David A. Hager - President and Chief Executive Officer:
Hey, Evan, this is Dave. I'll take a stab at that. Tony may want to add some things to it. Directionally, well first off, our well performance is just outstanding. We continue to see outstanding well performance on the capital program and outstanding economics on that program. If you'll remember back at the end of 2014, we had temporarily increased from five to nine completion crews and we jointly agreed with BHP that that was a temporary measure to draw down the inventory and then after that point, we would reduce the completion crews. And certainly in the current commodity price environment, and with some draw down in inventory, we felt that was appropriate. So directionally, we have a great partnership with BHP. We discuss a lot of things technically. They might have reduced the completion crews and they have the ability to do that the way our agreements are written that they might have reduced the completion crews a little bit further than we have, taking it down to one crew. Directionally, we agreed with the reduction, but they were trying to manage their total cash flows as a company when making that along with making a little bit of a call, I believe, on commodity prices. And so that was really the decision that was made. It had nothing to do with the quality of the opportunity. The well results are absolutely outstanding. And I think we'll continue to see adjustments in rig activity and the completion crews in the future. So, Tony, do you want to add anything to that?
Tony D. Vaughn - Executive Vice President-Exploration & Production:
No, I think you summed it up very well, Dave. I think the one thing I would add is just the more our technical team has an opportunity to look at additional data through the work that we're doing in both Lavaca County and DeWitt County, both in the upper and the lower Eagle Ford, we continue to grow the resource base. So our expectations of the property are essentially growing. The wells, as you can see from our quarter-to-quarter reports, are just as prolific. In fact, if you look at all the public data, you're going to find that the BHP/Devon combination is really delivering the best-in-class well results that we have in the industry right now. So I think it's all about pace of activity, and Dave summarized pretty well that we just dropped that pace down. And we'll continue to hover at the five or six drilling rigs for this point and probably running from about one to three frac crews as we go forward. That's just the overall plan that we'll have for the second half of the year.
Evan Calio - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
Great, thanks. And if I could, on a second question, you guys have reported another round of efficiencies achieved in the second quarter, 10% to 20% compared to the first quarter. Oilfield service prices appear to be coming down faster than you planned at the start of the year. So can you just talk about what's happening to the resulting savings? Does your reiteration of upstream CapEx and increased EUCs tell us there might be downside to that full-year CapEx, or how are you thinking about that relationship? Thanks.
David A. Hager - President and Chief Executive Officer:
I'd say the bigger impact, Evan, we don't see a lot of variation in what the CapEx will be for the remainder of this year. I think the bigger impact will be as we have a full year of those cost savings and then 2016, what benefit that's going to provide to us. And so you look at that and the CapEx savings we're going to have from the cost reductions. Then there are some other factors also that if you look at our, we can take the spending down in Canada probably by around $500 million or so. We will not have any activity essentially probably next year in the Mississippian or the Southern Mississippian, Midland Basin, Wolfcamp, some other plays. We had great economics because we're essentially being carried on a large amount of the well cost. But once we're beyond the carry, we won't have any money we'll be spending there. So you put all that together and where we have an E&P capital spend this year of $4 billion or a little bit over, I tried to make the comment there in my opening remarks that you could see that with the current strip that we – the cash flow that will be generated by that, plus the anticipated cash flow from any EnLink dropdowns, we are confident we'll be able to grow our oil production in 2016. And that's obviously the vast majority of the margin that we generate as a company. So there are a lot of positive factors working that we're going to be able to significantly reduce the capital requirements. I know there's some concern out there that when our hedges roll off, what impact is that going to have on the company. And we're trying to address that with you and give you some directional things to think about there that we have confidence we can continue to grow our oil production, even when these hedges roll off, because of the factors I mentioned.
Evan Calio - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
That's real helpful, guys. Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Ed Westlake from Credit Suisse. Your line is open.
Edward George Westlake - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker):
I guess just following on from Evan's question, some growth at the strip, but if you truly went to, if commodity prices were awful, to maintenance levels, can you give us a sense next year of what that would be? Have you done that calculation?
David A. Hager - President and Chief Executive Officer:
We have all the flexibility. It depends on the definition of awful, I guess you'd say. Because we obviously calculate our cash flows at all sorts of various commodity prices, including those below which we're currently seeing on the strip. I think the key thing is, we have all the flexibility in the world to adjust our capital however we want because essentially all of our acreage is held by production. We have no long-term projects we're committed to, no deepwater, no international, no heavy oil projects we're further committed at this point. We're just wrapping up Jackfish 3 and we don't have very many long-term rig commitments. So we can adjust our capital spending. And I think when you look at the combination that Devon provides of tremendous capital flexibility, some of the premier assets in North America, strong balance sheet, and the strong execution that we're consistently demonstrating every quarter, I think it's a unique combination in the industry.
Edward George Westlake - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker):
Totally separate question then. Just on the Delaware obviously you're with the new completions and the higher proppant loads, you're increasing the IPs very strongly. You've also got a whole lot of downspacing that you have to do, testing different layers within each of the different zones. So I appreciate it's a little bit early, but the EUR feels like it should be rising. Is that an expectation that we should have given the performance that you have across the basin thus far, particularly in the basin?
David A. Hager - President and Chief Executive Officer:
Ed, I think the EURs are increasing as we continue to develop. And we're doing a lot of work in the southern portion of Lea and Eddy County, which is really I think some of the best inventory we have in our portfolio. You're starting to see those characterized on the IPs, and we continue to really outperform on those type wells that we deliver. So we really have got a great understanding now, I believe, of the relationship between frac design and size, not that we're done with improving the recipe, but we've got a great relationship between the frac design, the resulting IPs, EURs, and most importantly the returns. And that's really why we are moving our completion designs back to about the 1,500 to 2,000 pound per foot range because it affords us the most improved rate of returns. Also, our work in the northern portion of Lea and Eddy County, we're derisking and really trying to set up some development work that will be ready for us in 2016. We're starting to improve that design for those fracs. And on a well-by-well basis, that's continuing to improve as well. So I think what the group is doing right now is we have a pretty good understanding about proppant loads and what that does to our completions. But we're not done. We're still trying to improve upon our frac fluids, the spacing links and the clusters and all the various things that go into a frac design. So we'll continue to see I think EURs improve and returns improve.
Edward George Westlake - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker):
Thanks very much.
Operator:
Your next question comes from David Tameron from Wells Fargo. Your line is open.
David R. Tameron - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
Thank you, good morning and congrats on another good quarter. So thinking about 2016, I'm going to go back to that. Obviously, this isn't a revelation that the Street bear cases, you guys aren't going to be able to grow as fast in 2016 as some of your peers. One, I guess how would you address that? And two, you talked about being able to grow within cash flow. What type of limits or maybe a better way, what type of goalposts or framework are you thinking about yourselves and at the board level as far as how you want to look at 2016, given where the strip is at right now?
David A. Hager - President and Chief Executive Officer:
We have always thought that it was important to have a strong balance sheet. And we're going to continue to believe that that is important and certainly in these times of uncertain commodity prices. So directionally, we tend to think of our capital spending has to be within the total cash inflows that we anticipate for the company. So that would be both our operational cash flow plus any EnLink distributions and any dropdown proceeds from EnLink, such as the access pipeline or the new, the other new, the NGPL line that we highlighted in the operations report. So that's directionally where we start off the discussion. We obviously will then look at the programs and see if there is any reason to deviate in a positive or a negative way from that. And we have the flexibility to do that given our strong balance sheet. But that's the starting point of the discussion. And I think it's important to remember that we did, our growth rate may not be quite as high next year, but remember we did, enjoyed great benefits of this in 2015 that others didn't, so we're starting from a much larger base. Don't forget that.
David R. Tameron - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
Yes.
David A. Hager - President and Chief Executive Officer:
The absolute base is higher because we have had such tremendous growth in 2015. So when you look at it at a two-year rate, you may get a little different answer.
David R. Tameron - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
No, no, and I'm with you on that. And as far as balance sheet metrics, and I talked a little bit with Howard about this last night, but are you guys thinking, is there debt-to-cap, self-imposed debt-to-cap? I know in the past you've gotten, I think the word Howard used is antsy when you start to get into the high 30%, low 40s. Is that still the game plan? I know you said within cash flow, but I'm just trying to think of different scenarios under different pricing scenarios.
David A. Hager - President and Chief Executive Officer:
I think Tom Mitchell, our CFO, would probably be the best person to talk to about this. Tom?
David R. Tameron - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
Okay.
Thomas L. Mitchell - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
David, there is a perception that our debt level would stay the same but the metrics would blow out next year and that's just not really happening with what we're seeing in the cash flows and in our ability to manage it. There's no question that it moves up, but we're not alone in that and we don't disproportionately move up within the peer group as you go into next year on that metric. So to some degree, there is some misperception and I would just highlight what Dave mentioned. There is incredible flexibility with our EnLink investment that many don't enjoy right now. So I guess I would leave it at that.
David R. Tameron - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
Okay, I appreciate the commentary. Thanks.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Michael Rowe from Tudor, Pickering, Holt. Your line is open.
Michael J. Rowe - Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, Inc.:
Thanks, good morning. I just wanted to get a sense for when you all think that you and BHP will decide on the right level of activity to pursue in 2016 in the Eagle Ford? And I guess I just want to understand your level of certainty there and if that lower activity levels do sustain into 2016, what could that mean for your views on the operated level of activity in the Delaware Basin?
Tony D. Vaughn - Executive Vice President-Exploration & Production:
This is Tony. I'll just reiterate some of the points that Dave made early on with our relationship with BHP. BHP is in the same boat that all of us are in, so they're trying to manage their cash flow as a company. It's difficult for me to project what will happen in 2016, but I think we've got a lot of flexibility there. We've proven that we can operate as much as 15 rigs and nine frac crews in DeWitt County. And we also can show that the well performance has improved over time and the resource base is growing. So the development plans are poised for acceleration when the business environment is ready for that to occur. So we'll just have to get through the third and fourth quarter and see where we're at, but the asset base is still top tier in North America.
David A. Hager - President and Chief Executive Officer:
Yes.
Tony D. Vaughn - Executive Vice President-Exploration & Production:
I'd also point, I'd like to just remind you that we've quantified the upper Eagle Ford Marl. We've characterized that with our delineation work in Lavaca County, which is really not even the sweet spot of the upper Eagle Ford Marl. That thickens as we go into DeWitt County. So we think there are some growing resources with commercial returns available to us. We also think the staggering our wells in the lower Eagle Ford will both improve recoveries and provide additional resources. So we're continuing to work on that and that will be incorporated into our plans as soon as the business climate improves.
David A. Hager - President and Chief Executive Officer:
Michael, just to, I think we are also asking that question. Just to be clear, we do not have a shortage of opportunities. We have a wealth of opportunities given where that are still economic in the current price environment. So that if you look fundamentally, the two things that we look at when we decide how much to invest is, first, what are the returns on these opportunities. And make sure that we can generate returns well in excess of the cost of capital, and then second, how much do we want to spend given what our cash flow is. And so we have tremendous flexibility. If there's a little bit less program, and I'm not saying it's going to be, but there's a little bit less program in the Eagle Ford, we can easily ramp up activities in other parts of our portfolio. So we have tremendous flexibility about how we spend and where we spend our capital.
Michael J. Rowe - Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, Inc.:
Very helpful, thanks on that. I guess last question just relates to your revised 2015 capital guidance. This time you cut corporate and midstream capital. I guess my question is, are there more opportunities to cut costs like this heading into 2016 to limit some of those fixed cost obligations, or maybe non-productive capital that could be deferred to the future time periods? Thanks.
David A. Hager - President and Chief Executive Officer:
Well we're always looking and we've highlighted how we're continuing to reduce well costs. And so we've given what we think is our most accurate guidance given the information that we have right now. But there's always opportunities to do better, so.
Michael J. Rowe - Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, Inc.:
Okay. Great, thanks.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Subash Chandra from Guggenheim Securities. Your line is open.
Subash Chandra - Guggenheim Securities LLC:
Good morning. BHP's decision aside, how would you compare the relative economics of DeWitt County and say in the Bone Springs Basin or maybe some emerging opportunities in the Delaware Sands? And then I have a follow-up, thanks.
David A. Hager - President and Chief Executive Officer:
When I look across our portfolio, we update our well economics across our portfolio routinely. And when we compare those, probably the top areas that are performing are DeWitt County and the basin portion of the second Bone Springs. Those are probably the best returns that are equivalent to each other. Those are the best returns that we have in our inventory. We have additional high returns that we're seeing in the Powder River Basin and the Cosner-Parkman. And we're still having positive returns, very competitive returns in our Anadarko business unit in both the Woodford and the growing Meramec play. So I would probably characterize the basin portion of the Delaware Basin and DeWitt County very similar.
Subash Chandra - Guggenheim Securities LLC:
Okay, thanks for that. And my follow-up is, the Access Pipeline is a go-forward plan on Pike. Does that influence the valuation of Access in any way?
David A. Hager - President and Chief Executive Officer:
It would influence the valuation of Access, as you might imagine, to some degree because it would be the anticipation of (25:58) at some point in the future from that. Now there are ways you may be able to address that and how we actually do the dropdown, but it could have some impact. Tom, do you want to add something to that?
Thomas L. Mitchell - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
I do want to add to that. It would impact it near term from a cash perspective, but that's the only way out of there. And the way this works, you're going to come up with some a rate, a fee rate, that your present valuing to come up with your sales value. So it would be considered. It just wouldn't necessarily come next year or it would be a contingency that would be out there. So the value is still there and it would be agreed to in any transaction that we did.
Subash Chandra - Guggenheim Securities LLC:
Okay, thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Ryan Todd from Deutsche Bank. Your line is open.
Ryan Todd - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Great, thanks. Good morning, gentlemen. Maybe a follow-up on the Bone Spring wells. The latest batch in the second quarter, very impressive results. Can you talk a little bit about maybe potential drivers of the results? Was there any change to completion or is it the type well, the specific location of the geography, landing zone improvement, and any reason why this type of performance wouldn't be sustainable going forward?
David A. Hager - President and Chief Executive Officer:
If you're asking about the second Bone Springs, I think we just continued to optimize and we're really trying to core up and offset some of our best wells. So we're drilling the next best well. Not doing much appraisal work. We're trying to stay focused and drive margins and oil growth. So we have modified the completion designs as we've discussed and that has been really highly centered on proppant loads. But we're also, we probably have about 7 or 8 different designs across the Delaware Basin and those are all customized based on the portion of the basin that we had, the type of rocks that we have. And so I think we just continue to refine that in a very granular fashion. I'd also like to comment about thinking in the last quarter, we commented on our well comm center here, which is our 24x7 operating center. That largely started out being dedicated to our drilling rigs and tremendous efficiencies on our drilling rigs. And some of that is really highlighted here in the operating report. But we've moved that into the completion space now. So we've got full coverage of our well center 24 hours a day on all of our frac crews that we're working right now. So there's a lot of attention to detail there. The non-productive time is grossly being diminished. A lot of the emphasis around the way we flow wells back, that's a science in itself and we've had a lot of learnings from some of our older plays like Cana-Woodford, that we've incorporated both into the Woodford and now into the Delaware Basin. So we feel like we're driving top tier execution just through a more focused granular approach to our business.
Ryan Todd - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Great, thanks. And then maybe a follow up in the Anadarko Basin. I guess a couple of parts. Meramec versus Cana, looks like you're allocating more in near term to the Meramec. Is this reflective of rates of return or just reflection of controlling CapEx as Cana drilling is ahead of schedule? And then maybe broadly in the Anadarko, should we expect to continue the acceleration? Have the rates of return improved enough that we should expect additional acceleration into 2016? It looks like one of your partners is talking about doubling a rig count. So how should we think about capital trends there in that basin?
David A. Hager - President and Chief Executive Officer:
I think the returns are very competitive in the basin in general. We've got a lot of repeatability in Cana. You've seen us decrease our well cost from $8.5 million, probably about a year ago, to the low $8 millions in the last call and now those are being driven down towards $7 million per well. The IP and EUR performance in the Cana-Woodford are continuing to grow. Probably the best pad that we brought on historically in Cana was this quarter in our Haley pad. So the Cana-Woodford project continues to outperform and continues to improve quarter by quarter. So we're extremely pleased with that, and if you recall, we've got a long list of opportunities there that we'll continue to prosecute on. So really the way we describe the Meramec play in this particular report, we're finding that all the IPs and the well costs are very similar to what we have in the Woodford. It's got a slightly improved oil content so the margins are a little bit better than in Cana. As you know, it's a less mature asset than the Woodford is. So we're really not trying to divert or reallocate capital away from the Woodford. We're really trying to grow understanding of the Meramec so in 2016 we can come back with a very thoughtful development plan that will effectively prosecute both the Meramec and the Woodford combined. So the returns are good in the Meramec. They're not measurably higher, but they are a little bit better. But we're going to approach 2016 with a combined development plan for both horizons. And that's really what you're probably hearing our partner talk about as well as us.
Ryan Todd - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Great, thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Sameer Uplenchwar from GMP Securities. Your line is open.
Sameer Uplenchwar - GMP Securities LP:
Good morning, guys, and congrats on a good quarter, a couple of questions. The first one is on the Permian, basically the Delaware. I'm just trying to understand how further along are you on announcing the grand plan for the Permian. When you got into the Eagle Ford, you said you were going to be at 140,000 BOEs per day. We can see a path to getting to 140,000 BOEs per day, in fact even higher than that with 5,000 locations, multiple stack pays. How much further do we have to go before we get an idea regarding how big this play could be as it relates to Devon, and how quickly can you get there? I'm just trying to get some color around that.
David A. Hager - President and Chief Executive Officer:
I think that's a good question, Sameer, and I'll tell you what we've been focused on, as we've talked about in previous calls, is really trying to generate high returns. And the highest return in our stacked opportunity of horizons we feel like is a second Bone Springs. It's very repeatable. We're growing a little there. You can see we had an outstanding Q1 and Q2 in the second Bone Springs that drove that oil growth. We are continuing to watch industry delineate the Wolfcamp. All that activity in Loving County is moving right into our acreage position and we're getting more comfortable with that. We've talked about that being a little bit more costly and a little bit more gassy, slightly less returns, but we're getting a good understand of the Wolfcamp. Same thing for the Leonard, we're watching our industry competitors derisk around us. We're feeling pretty good about that, but again, we don't feel like that offers the same returns per well that we're seeing in the Bone Springs. And I think in this call we highlighted several wells that we just drilled and completed in the Delaware Sands, and some of that appraisal work that we've done in the last couple of quarters we found a new landing zone in the Delaware Sands that is much more prolific than it was before. So we've talked about this D-Sand. We were able to put on nine wells, all very repeatable, and averaged over 1,000 BOEs per day from that particular horizon. So what that all means to us is that coupled with the different pilot tests that we've described in the Delaware Basin, all that information is being moved into a full development concept. And so we're coupling the optimum surface design for a multi-stacked area like this with the optimum subsurface design. In 2016, we're going to come out and have a full development plan for all horizons that we think will increase the returns of these projects even greater than what we have done just with our pad work, mostly centered in the second Bone Springs.
Sameer Uplenchwar - GMP Securities LP:
Got it, thank you. Thanks for the color. On the maintenance CapEx for 2016, I know this has been discussed a lot on the call. But I'm trying to figure out from a numbers perspective. We can see like $1 billion saving year over year just by getting like the Pike strat wells and the JV capital. If you remove all that, we can get about $1 billion less. So, if I'm thinking about flat year-over-year numbers, is $3.5 billion the right number? Is it $2.5 billion? I'm just trying to understand from a spending perspective. Where do you see from a Q4 2015 to a Q4 2016 exit-to-exit flat level?
Thomas L. Mitchell - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Okay, Sameer, let me try to clarify that. We are very confident that we can grow our oil production with a capital spend of between $2 billion and $2.5 billion. Now we are not as focused on the natural gas side, so there would be some decline on the natural gas side. But on the oil, which generates the vast majority of our revenue and the vast majority of our margin, we are confident we can grow our oil volumes at a spend between $2 billion and $2.5 billion. The other thing that's continuing to go on too that I didn't even mention is just the efficiencies we're getting that Tony has been alluding to in his answers to the various calls here, which is driving higher productivity in each of our plays. And so that's the other thing that's an important factor in here and is driving that conclusion.
Sameer Uplenchwar - GMP Securities LP:
Perfect, thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Scott Hanold from RBC Capital Markets. Your line is open.
Scott Hanold - RBC Capital Markets LLC:
Thanks for taking my questions, just some more follow-ups in the Permian. Certainly the performance was outstanding this quarter. It sounds like you're obviously evaluating development plans in the future for this. And I guess my two questions would be I guess first, a little bit more on how fast you can grow in the Permian. Can you discuss? What are the key bottlenecks that you're looking at, at this point in time on the infrastructure side? And then the second question is, when you look at all those various formations that you have opportunities on in the Permian, how does that development do you think happen? Is this amenable to big well pads with multiple horizons and wells on it?
David A. Hager - President and Chief Executive Officer:
I think the second part of your question, we historically and the industry has historically talked about pads enough size for two to three wells, and I think what we would contemplate is probably eight to nine wells per pad. We would contemplate simultaneous operations much like you see in offshore international type environments, perhaps having frac centers off the pad. So it's a slightly different concept to what North American onshore players have historically developed or prosecuted their inventory with. But the basin is just loaded with opportunities. The resource size is tremendous. You've seen some of the unrisked locations that we had. I think the last time we commented it was about 11,000. So really, we've got to come out with a design for all of these horizons that will be complementary of each other and fully utilize the surface facilities in a different way than the industry has historically done. So I think if I go back to the first portion of your question, there are challenges in the Delaware Basin. Permitting on federal acreage continues to be a real challenge. That has typically centered around seven to eight months to get some of those APDs approved through the system. We work really well with the field offices of the BLM, have a great relationship. We're working together. But they're limited on resource as well. There is infrastructure, there is localized infrastructure issues and takeaway that cause us to be a little bit more thoughtful about what we go drill. In fact, some of these other horizons we talked about being more gassy, some of those horizons has had CO2 issues associated with them, so we avoid that for now. And that's incorporated in our more thoughtful plans. And then finally, I think understanding all of those challenges with having a more thoughtful approach to power, water management, understanding all of the results from the pilots that we have ongoing will certainly impact the development plan going forward for 2016 and beyond.
Scott Hanold - RBC Capital Markets LLC:
Okay, I appreciate that context. So it sounds like certainly that the fact that the northern Delaware is I guess in general more fragmented than say what you have in the Eagle Ford. You still can build that scale and efficiencies in a similar fashion.
David A. Hager - President and Chief Executive Officer:
I think we can. If you recall, we started our development in the northern portion of both of those counties two years ago. Had outstanding results and then we moved out and tested the southern portion of those two counties I believe in the fall about, or mid 2014 if I recall. And so really, if you think about the timeline that we've had to build our position and our oil growth here in the southern portion of the two counties, it's been quite rapid. And so now we're going back, I think we talked about the 13 rigs we're using today. Three of those had been centered on the slope. So we're going back to build, get an updated to build our develop plane going into 2016 that will incorporate activity there. You got to chase slopes and it's a little bit more of a different depositional environment than it is in the southern portion of the two counties. So you've got to go at a pace and stay behind the data so you can do good quality work and maximize returns and that's what we're trying to do.
Scott Hanold - RBC Capital Markets LLC:
Thank you for that.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Doug Leggate from Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Your line is open.
Doug Leggate - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Thanks. Good morning everybody. I got a couple of questions, Dave, if I may. I guess just changing tack a little bit on EnLink. What is the latest thinking after the sell down you guys did? What is your latest thinking on the pace at which you want to bring forward that value? And I've got a follow-up, please.
David A. Hager - President and Chief Executive Officer:
Thanks, Doug. We recognize the strategic value in EnLink and we believe in the long term of that business. We think it's a well run company with a very, very bright future. And so we like it longer term. We do recognize the optionality that EnLink brings to Devon. It's probably somewhat unique within the industry to have that optionality. And so we, like we do with all of our asset base, we believe active portfolio management is the right way to look at things. So we look at that with regard to every asset we own including EnLink on a continuous basis. And I think I'd just stop there.
Doug Leggate - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Okay. I realize it could be somewhat sensitive in terms of timing. But my follow-up, Dave, and I know there's been a lot of questions on maintenance capital and definitions of growth, and I think you've been quite clear about that, but if I could just try one more go at it to just to really annoy you I guess. It seems at least for the first half production numbers that the 2015 production guidance probably has some upside risk to it. So I'd first of all appreciate your comment on that. And if so, when you talk about growth in oil production, are you talking about average 2016 over 2015 or are you talking more of a sustainable go forward basis? Or to be very clear about it, are you talking exit to exit? In other words, can you actually still add new volume at that spending level as opposed to maintaining the exit rate in 2015 at that spending level, if you see what I mean?
David A. Hager - President and Chief Executive Officer:
Yes, to answer your second question there, Doug. First, you could never aggravate me, by the way. But we are talking about average of 2016 over the exit of 2015. And essentially we're flat for the entire year. So you can look at it as average of 2016 over average of 2015. It's really the same answer. So, we're talking about on average that we would be above 2015 levels, not just the exit of 2016. So I think that's a stronger statement, obviously. As far as our second half of 2015 guidance, I think our guidance is our guidance since we give it that way for a reason now. And I think Tony could comment on this. But there probably is some variability in there based I'd say particularly on the completion timing in the Eagle Ford to a larger degree, and to a lesser degree some timing of completion and completion of facilities in the Delaware Basin. And so we've given you the best guidance we have. But there is some variability based on exactly how that works out.
Doug Leggate - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Okay, maybe at the risk of aggravating Howard, maybe I could squeeze a third one in very quickly. And it really just goes back to the Bone Spring production numbers. I mean, they're quite stunning compared to the type curve that you just raised on the last call. So I guess my hopefully quick question would be, what do you need to see by way of well count or consistency in order to revisit that type curve, which was only just upgraded a quarter ago? And I'll leave it there. Thank you.
Howard J. Thill - Senior VP-Communications & Investor Relations:
Doug, I think it's a good point. If you go back probably two or three quarters ago, our type curve was a general type curve for the entire Delaware basin and we're talking about IPs of about 750 BOEs per day and EURs of about 450,000 BOEs per day. We increased that this past quarter up to 900 and you're seeing IPs in Q2 of 1,400. So if we wanted to give you a more granular type curve based on the activity quarter to quarter, I think we could increase that. So the guys are confident that we're seeing a lot of consistency there in the southern portion of the basin. So I would think with continued well performance here and watching the data for a few months to make sure the EURs hold up as expected, the type curve could improve on the basin portion of that. And going back to a couple of calls ago, the slope work is really about the same type curve that we had a year ago and we're seeing a little bit of variability there. The returns are not as good on the slope as they are on the basin. They're not as repeatable. So certainly wouldn't want to go out on a limb and talk about a changing type curve on the slope at this point. But the southern portion of the two counties is performing extremely well as you note.
Doug Leggate - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
I appreciate the answers, Dave. Thanks a lot.
Operator:
Your next question comes from John Herrlin from Société Générale. Your line is open.
John P. Herrlin - SG Americas Securities LLC:
Yeah, thank you. With the Meramec, Dave, it's early days I know, but do you think you're going to have a larger oil and liquids window than you're currently indicating in today's ops report?
David A. Hager - President and Chief Executive Officer:
I'll let Tony answer that. Tony, do you think the oil window is going to grow, continue to grow?
Tony D. Vaughn - Executive Vice President-Exploration & Production:
Well, there's 50 or 60 data points out there with the industry right now and all of it is looking pretty consistent. So, I think it's a bit early to tell but the encouraging, I think the encouraging thing right now is everything at this stage of that part of the play is nothing but positive. I think with continued development there, we'll start seeing some sweet spots in some less attractive areas. But for now, industry and Devon and our partner Cimarex is drilling a lot of really positive wells. I think we only have a couple of data points on the gassy side of that fluid column. So there will be further refinement behind that. So I'd say yes, it could grow.
David A. Hager - President and Chief Executive Officer:
Another thing, John, is obviously it's gradational. So even though we may talk about a specific oil window, as you get shallower, it tends to be more. And as you get deeper it tends to get a little more liquids-rich. But it's gradational, that boundary is.
John P. Herrlin - SG Americas Securities LLC:
Okay, thanks, Dave. One for Tom regarding dropdowns. In all likelihood, NGPL to go before Access as a dropdown?
Thomas L. Mitchell - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
I don't know, we really, John, we haven't worked through the specific timing, but it's likely that NGPL would be later than that given the state of development and Darryl may want to give you some color around that. But likely the first dropdown would be Access to the degree we decide to do that.
John P. Herrlin - SG Americas Securities LLC:
Okay, thanks.
David A. Hager - President and Chief Executive Officer:
Darryl, I might suggest, we haven't talked much about NGPL. And why don't we give Darryl just a minute here to describe the NGPL asset so everybody understands it a little bit better and the optionality that this asset provides us.
Darryl G. Smette - Executive Vice President, Marketing, Facilities, Pipeline and Supply Chain:
Okay, the NGPL line that we've talked about in our disclosures is a 20 inch line that we have purchased, has not really finalized yet. We expect it will finalize end of the first quarter, early second quarter. It's subject to a couple of conditions that we feel very comfortable will be met. But it's a 20 inch line that runs from North Texas to the very south end of what industry now calls the SCOOP area. And so, it is very strategic in where it goes. Now there is a couple of different things that could happen there. First of all, that pipeline could be extended so it moves all the way through SCOOP up to the Cana area and Stack area and that's very important when we look at it, because we think as all of these plays continue to develop, that we're going to see a need for additional NGL takeaway capacity out of Oklahoma as well as residue capacity out of Oklahoma. That's a positive. The other positive is that the right-of-way that comes with this acquisition is a perpetual right-of-way. It doesn't expire and it allows us to put as many lines in that right-of-way as we can get in there and it doesn't specify for which product. So this gives us so much optionality in terms of whether it's a rich line that could move NGL and gas down to the Bridgeport plant for EnLink, whether it could be a residue gas that takes gas out of the State of Oklahoma. It could be used as an oil line. It could be used in a number of different ways. So we are very pleased that we have that asset. We think we can add on to that asset to create value either for Devon or for EnLink. So it's something we view as very positive for us, and quite frankly, positive for the industry.
John P. Herrlin - SG Americas Securities LLC:
Thanks, Darryl.
Operator:
And your next question comes from David Heikkinen from Heikkinen Energy Advisory. Your line is open.
David Martin Heikkinen - Heikkinen Energy Advisors:
Good morning. I guess question on the Meramec map that you have on slide 14 defining the geologic boundaries to the north and to the south in the zone. I'd understood that to the north it becomes more carbonate rich and then to the south it gets a little more clay rich. And it looks like your blob corresponds to how I would have drawn it. Is that a fair geologic characterization of why that blob is where it is?
David A. Hager - President and Chief Executive Officer:
I think you're on to it, David. I think it's really, at least in our portion of it, it's more of a silty mudstone which provides a lot of the productivity of the interval. But I think you're describing the general trend just fine.
David Martin Heikkinen - Heikkinen Energy Advisors:
Okay, that's helpful. And then thinking about your Eagle Ford production profile and knowing BHP as the operator, you also had some facility constraints that you were working on debottlenecking. How does that production profile, surface capacity, and BHP relationship impact your 140,000 barrel a day targets that you originally had? How do you think about that growth profile heading into next year or lack thereof, I guess?
Darryl G. Smette - Executive Vice President, Marketing, Facilities, Pipeline and Supply Chain:
This is Darryl. As it relates to takeaway capacity, over the past four, five, six months, our midstream providers continued to work on that, and we have increased our stabilization capacity from about 140,000 barrels a day up to somewhere between 160,000 to 170,000. On any given day it can be 170,000 barrels a day and some days 160,000. So that's a significant increase in capacity, and that's gross obviously. The other area where we have increased capacity is we have put in a different truck station that will be finalized this month of October where we have the capacity to truck barrels out of that area. And that truck station is so much closer to our production area that it just keeps the barrels flowing a lot better. So from an infrastructure standpoint, we think that we are in pretty good shape when we look at the current spend profile for the rest of this year and as we start working with BHP on 2016.
Howard J. Thill - Senior VP-Communications & Investor Relations:
David, I know you're aware of this, but the productivity index on those wells are extremely rich. And when we do our modeling work, pace of activity is really pretty dramatic on what that forecast looks like going forward. So we continue to be optimistic on the play and the ability to grow volumes again.
Tony D. Vaughn - Executive Vice President-Exploration & Production:
So in other words, we have the capability to go to 140,000 barrels a day from an operational perspective. It's just a question of how much capital we put into the program. And we'll be discussing that with BHP as we continue on throughout the year and seeing what the commodity price environment looks like and how much we both mutually want to spend.
David Martin Heikkinen - Heikkinen Energy Advisors:
That's helpful. Thanks, guys.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Megan Repine from FBR Capital Markets. Your line is open.
Megan E. Repine - FBR Capital Markets & Co.:
Hi, good morning, guys. I wanted to drill down on the Powder River results. How much of the 225,000 acres in the oil fairway would you say are derisked at this point? And in this commodity environment, how should we think about the pace of further derisking? And then just looking at the returns there, is there anything that would keep you at this point from accelerating activity more there?
David A. Hager - President and Chief Executive Officer:
Okay, Megan, without having my map in front of me, it's difficult for me to estimate that. But I would just estimate roughly about a quarter of our position has been derisked. The way our technical teams really try to think about this is we categorize our opportunities into different tier levels. So our top tier asset base, we've got several years of running room there. We do need to move up-dip and to the north to continue to derisk a larger area. We feel very confident. As you know, we are starting to move towards long-lateral drilling, and that has achieved everything that we had expected in our modeling work, so that is moving forward. And really, the portion of our position that has not been derisked was dependent on the long-lateral results. So right now we are extremely encouraged, and again we're focused on drilling the next best well and seeing repeatable results. Very commercial, in fact, it's probably the top three returns we have in our portfolio right now.
Megan E. Repine - FBR Capital Markets & Co.:
That's helpful, thanks. And then my next question is just on refracs. Can you just discuss the major challenges that you're still trying to get answered for horizontal refracs, and then any thoughts around refracs on some oil assets anytime soon?
David A. Hager - President and Chief Executive Officer:
Sure, Megan. We've got I think a working laboratory in the Barnett. And if you look what we have refrac'd over the years, it's over 1,000 vertical wells that we have refrac'd. We've refrac'd refracs now in the Barnett about 50 times. And now we're working on horizontal refracs that we talked about. And we probably had more of those done over time than you would expect. But we're using the more recent technology of finer grade sand and more diversion, more capable diversion techniques. That's really what we're exploring right now. And so we tried chemical diversion. We tried mechanical diversion. At least in the Barnett right now, mechanical diversion techniques are working better. We're expecting quality returns in that. And so really when I look at the Barnett, it's an exciting resource base that we really haven't even talked about or tried to quantify right now, but very material to the company. And we're also using that knowledge to actually go into some of our other plays. We've refrac'd I believe about 15 or 20 wells in the vertical Wolfberry in the Permian and have seen reasonable results. Not outstanding, but we're continuing to refine that. We've refrac'd a couple of wells in the Eagle Ford and also have refrac'd a well in the Haynesville. So we're using that knowledge to go into some of our wells that were frac'd before the recent drive-in technology changed about 18 months ago and looked for good quality candidates. But there is tremendous upside with the refracs on our inventory.
Megan E. Repine - FBR Capital Markets & Co.:
Great, thanks for taking my questions.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Brian Singer from Goldman Sachs. Your line is open.
Brian A. Singer - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Thank you, good morning
David A. Hager - President and Chief Executive Officer:
Good morning, Brian.
Brian A. Singer - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Most of my questions have been answered, but I wanted to just follow up as you think about your cadence of well completions on the oil side going into next year. To meet your goal of growing production and then doing that within cash inflows, do you expect that you would need a greater cadence of completed wells, or is well productivity really the major driver as you look into 2016?
David A. Hager - President and Chief Executive Officer:
Well productivity is the major driver. We haven't assumed anything like, well we can do this if we really draw down the inventory of wells or anything tricky like that. That's not been in our thinking at all. It's really just the improved productivity along with the lower costs and the other factors I talked about.
Brian A. Singer - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Got it. And along those lines, then also just to make sure we're just defining inflows correctly. That does include, I think you said this before, the potential for dropdowns from EnLink. Would you be able to hit that objective without a dropdown from EnLink?
David A. Hager - President and Chief Executive Officer:
Well, what I tried to clarify and you can run your own cash flow models. But I tried to clarify that we can grow oil production at between $2 billion and $2.5 billion capital program next year. And so, you can then plug in whatever oil price you want to and assumptions on drop downs, etcetera, and see how that would work out relative to cash flow I think.
Brian A. Singer - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Okay, thanks. And then in the Wolfcamp, you talked about increasing your prospectivity by 40% to the 140,000 net acres. Can you just talk about geographically where you saw that and then where you're heading and whether you see – what type of potential you could see for even further improvements in prospective acres?
David A. Hager - President and Chief Executive Officer:
We expanded our Wolfcamp footprint across our position really because we saw a couple industry wells that were more oily than what we had previously expected. So if you look back at our map, you'll see that in southeast of Mexico, we expanded that to the west. And there's a few industry data points that you could go out and dig out that would show some really good quality work. We're still seeing a lot more activity just south of the New Mexico border that's very encouraging to us. We're going to drill about six Wolfcamp wells ourselves this year, about the same for the Leonard. So again, we think that's a great resource opportunity for us and will be incorporated into our 2016 development plans.
Brian A. Singer - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Great, thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Phillip Jungwirth from BMO. Your line is open.
Phillip J. Jungwirth - BMO Capital Markets (United States):
Hey, good morning. In the release, you highlighted margin improvement from reduced operating costs and the higher value oil growth, but also note the Eagle Ford is the highest margin asset in the portfolio. So with reduced activity here, how should we think about continued margin expansion to the corporation at a static commodity price? And it might also make sense to expand upon the strong sequential decline in Permian LOE as this becomes a bigger contributor to overall volumes.
David A. Hager - President and Chief Executive Officer:
We're always driving, looking at ways we can drive down the LOE. And so that's part of the goal that we have to increase the margin. So there's the opportunity there. I think that you can see that this organization is highly focused on being the best operator in each of our core areas. So there is a potential there for expansion at static prices. We don't see a big shift in the mix taking place in the volumes, but that's part of what we do is always try to drive down the cost associated with our operations.
Phillip J. Jungwirth - BMO Capital Markets (United States):
Okay, and then on the Haley pad, the 15% oil mix, the well exceeded the type curve of 5% oil. How sustainable is the lower GOR over the life of the well and does the increased oil mix have more to do with the new completion design or the well is being drilled towards the eastern side of the Cana development?
David A. Hager - President and Chief Executive Officer:
I would not expect the GOR to magically increase with time. I think if you look at our activity, we have drilled a lot of the Cana core inventory, so we're starting to move up dip to the north and to the east. So we're expecting a more liquid-rich fluid content as we go into the second half of the year and into 2016. So we'll still have, we've had I think about four or five wells in those areas that have been very encouraging and have been more oily. Great returns. So the performance will be moving that direction.
Howard J. Thill - Senior VP-Communications & Investor Relations:
Michelle, we're past the top of the hour so we're going to take one more call and then call it a day.
Operator:
Okay, so your final question will come from James Sullivan from Alembic Global Advisory. Your line is open.
James Sullivan - Alembic Global Advisors LLC:
Hey, guys, thanks for squeezing me in and obviously we covered a lot of ground here. I just want to go back to one quick thing on the refracs. Do you guys have any commentary on say alternative financing programs that are out there via service companies to do refracs? Have you guys looked at that or talked to people about that? I think Halliburton was talking about doing one just as a way of making the base maintenance cheaper for you guys or more capital efficient for you.
David A. Hager - President and Chief Executive Officer:
I think that's a good question. We're seeing some of the larger service providers that want to have a little bit more skin in the game for some of these new ideas. We're utilizing a concept and won't talk about the individual provider in Southeast New Mexico on some of the newer technology there for our new completions. We also know that that opportunity is available for the refracs. I tell you right now, I think with the 1,000 wells that we have refrac'd in North Texas and the growing list of horizontals that we have refrac'd, I think we probably had the greatest library available in the industry right now. So we've got a great opportunity there and we're continuing to prosecute that on our own.
James Sullivan - Alembic Global Advisors LLC:
Okay. Sounds great. All right, thanks. I'll let you guys jump off now.
Howard J. Thill - Senior VP-Communications & Investor Relations:
Thank you all for joining our conference call today. We appreciate the interest. If you have additional follow-ups, please don't hesitate to contact any of us in Investor Relations. We look forward to seeing you on the road soon. Thanks and have a great day.
Operator:
Thank you, everyone. This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.
Executives:
Howard J. Thill - Senior VP-Communications & Investor Relations John Richels - President and Chief Executive Officer David A. Hager - Chief Operating Officer Tony D. Vaughn - Executive Vice President-Exploration & Production Darryl G. Smette - Executive VP-Marketing, Midstream & Supply Chain
Analysts:
Evan Calio - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC Arun Jayaram - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker) Scott Hanold - RBC Capital Markets LLC Doug Leggate - Bank of America – Merrill Lynch Charles A. Meade - Johnson Rice & Co. LLC Jeffrey L. Campbell - Tuohy Brothers Investment Research, Inc. Ryan Todd - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc. John P. Herrlin - SG Americas Securities LLC David R. Tameron - Wells Fargo Securities LLC Brian A. Singer - Goldman Sachs & Co. James Sullivan - Alembic Global Advisors LLC Paul Grigel - Macquarie Capital (USA), Inc. Sameer Uplenchwar - GMP Securities LP
Operator:
Welcome to Devon Energy's first quarter 2015 earnings conference call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. This call is being recorded. At this time, I'd like to turn the call over to Mr. Howard Thill, Senior Vice President of Communications and Investor Relations. Sir, you may begin.
Howard J. Thill - Senior VP-Communications & Investor Relations:
Thank you, John, and I'd too like to welcome everyone to our first quarter 2015 analyst and investor call. Also on the call today with me are John Richels, President and Chief Executive Officer; Dave Hager, Chief Operating Officer; and Tom Mitchell, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer; along with a few other members of our senior management team. If you haven't had a chance to listen to the management commentary, you can find that, along with the associated slides and our new operations report at devonenergy.com. Additionally, we have included our forward-looking guidance in our earnings release. I hope you've had a chance to review all these documents, as today's call will largely consist of questions and answers. Finally, I'll remind you that comments and answers to questions on this call will contain plans, forecasts, expectations, and estimates, which are forward-looking statements under U.S. securities law. These comments and answers are subject to a number of assumptions, risks, and uncertainties, many of which are beyond our control. These statements are not guarantees of future performance. See our 2014 Form 10-K for a review of risk factors related to our business and any potential forward-looking statements. And with that, I'll turn the call over to our President and CEO, John Richels.
John Richels - President and Chief Executive Officer:
Thank you, Howard, and good morning, everyone. First quarter was an outstanding one for Devon and arguably one of the best from an operations perspective in the company's 40-year-plus history. Before we jump into Q&A, I'd like to highlight just a few key messages that I hope you'll take away from our earnings materials. First, our premier asset portfolio is really hitting on all cylinders. We're seeing significant operational improvements across the portfolio, with improving type curves and increasing inventory, and we're achieving meaningful capital and operating cost efficiencies. The strong operational momentum translated into top-notch first quarter performance. We exceeded our production guidance for the third consecutive quarter. We did a great job of accelerating cost savings across our portfolio, with field level operating costs coming in well below our guidance. We expect this level of excellence to continue in upcoming quarters. As a result, we have significantly raised our 2015 production outlook while at the same time reducing our full-year capital and LOE guidance by more than $400 million in aggregate. And, finally, we have a terrific balance sheet that continues to get better. When you combine the additional cash flow from our improved production outlook, our lower cost guidance, and the recent EnLink-related sales proceeds, we've enhanced our cash flow outlook by over $1 billion in just a few months. So, in summary, our focused asset portfolio is generating differentiating results and returns for shareholders. As many of you know, this will be my last quarterly call as CEO, with my planned retirement at the end of July. And I'm confident in saying that Devon has never been in better shape than it is today. We have a great set of assets, we have a very capable and experienced management team, and a rock-solid balance sheet. These winning qualities clearly offer investors a unique opportunity in the E&P space, and I firmly believe that Devon's best days are still ahead. So thanks again for joining us today, and with that I'll turn the call back to Howard for Q&A.
Howard J. Thill - Senior VP-Communications & Investor Relations:
Thanks, John. To make sure that we have enough time to take as many calls as possible, we'd ask that you limit yourself to one question with associated follow-ups to that question. You may reprompt to ask additional questions as time permits. So, John, with that, if you'll queue up the calls and questions, we'll go from there. Thank you.
Operator:
Certainly. Our first question comes from the line of Evan Calio from Morgan Stanley.
Evan Calio - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
Hey, good morning, guys, and great results today. A lot of new details, so I may jump into a more detailed question here. You introduced a Meramec type curve based upon the initial 12 wells you participated in. If I look at the map, it looks like your acreage includes oilier updip and the gassier downdip sections. Is the type curve representative of blend, or can you discuss how we should interpret that?
David A. Hager - Chief Operating Officer:
Hi, Evan, it's Dave Hager. Yeah, this is based more really on the results that we have to date, which is more in the oilier updip part of the play. We are going to be evaluating some as we move further down to the gassier part of the play. But the type curve you've seen is so far based on our results. We've seen the 12 wells you talked about as well as about 20 industry wells in the area.
Evan Calio - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
And that's where your activity will be focused for the balance of 2015?
David A. Hager - Chief Operating Officer:
The bulk of the activity is going to be focused in the oilier updip part of the play. I think we're going to draw a handful of wells down to evaluate a little further downdip, but the bulk of it is going to be in the oilier part. That's the best economics at this point.
Evan Calio - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
That's great. If I could slip just one more in. I know your DeWitt County Eagle Ford are performing – I think it's about 25% over the curve that you lifted just one quarter ago. Is that a function of coring up, enhanced completions? Can you kind of help just to kind of parse through that to understand the broader application on your locations?
David A. Hager - Chief Operating Officer:
Well, the two big things I would say are really around the enhanced completions that we're doing and then really the production optimization techniques that we're using. And so both of those we're very proud of. We think we are adding significant value to this asset with our contribution to the completion design, as well as the production enhancement techniques that we're using, coil tubing cleanouts, automation, choke management, et cetera, so the field is just performing outstanding, but those are the two big drivers.
Evan Calio - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
Great. Great results, guys.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Arun Jayaram from Credit Suisse.
Arun Jayaram - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker):
Good morning, gentlemen. I was wondering if you guys could comment a little bit more on the Bone Spring and talk about the economic returns that you're seeing in the basin area, or location, versus slope. I believe the drilling costs are cheaper on the slope. I just wondered if you'd maybe comment on the relative returns and where the program's going to be focused in 2015.
David A. Hager - Chief Operating Officer:
Yeah, this is Dave again. The bulk of the program is going to be based in the basin part of the play. We have 10 of our 13 rigs working in the basin part right now. We get good economic returns in both parts of the play. So I want to emphasize that. They're just a little bit different. The slope is more a channelized deposition environment. It is more normally pressured. The well costs tend to be lower. Where, as you move down into the basin, it's a little bit deeper, it's more overpressured, and we're really – we're seeing some benefit from these enhanced higher sand concentrations up on the slope, but we really see the greatest improvement down in the basin part of the play. That's where about two-thirds of our opportunities lie. But I don't want discount the slope part of it, either. It's a good economic play. It's just a little bit different than-- it's a little lower cost and a little bit lower rate than the basin part of the plays. But the bulk of it is going to be concentrated down in the basin part, and not only in the Bone Spring, the lower part of the Bone Spring, but I'm sure you noted also the A Sand wells that we had. We talked about a second well in there, and we're really encouraged by the results we're seeing in this A Sand or upper sand in the second Bone Spring. So, Tony, do you want to add anything to that?
Tony D. Vaughn - Executive Vice President-Exploration & Production:
You covered it really well, Dave. Arun, I'd just remind you that we really started a lot of our activity on the slope initially and then moved into the basin. But, when you go back and look at the results that we've had in the slope, probably about a third of those results have been at the type curve that we just announced for the basin. So we have a lot of upside on the slope type activity, and we think as we de-risk with those three wells, we'll set ourselves up for a continued development there. So we feel very positive about going back into the slope with more development type work.
Arun Jayaram - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker):
It sounded like from your ops report you could see a potential for the inventory to increase a lot in the Bone Spring. My follow-up is just regarding the Eagle Ford. You guys talked about maybe in Q2 being a little bit facilities constrained. Could you just talk about steps that you have under way to maybe relieve some of that midstream – call it bottleneck or whatnot? And when will you have more room to continue the strong growth you've had?
David A. Hager - Chief Operating Officer:
Okay. I'm going to have Darryl Smette talk about this.
Darryl G. Smette - Executive VP-Marketing, Midstream & Supply Chain:
Yeah, I mean, there's a number of things that we're working on with our midstream provider and with our partner out there in order to increase the capacity. A lot of that has to do with operating efficiencies. That includes getting more uptime on the stabilizer that's out there. I know currently that stabilizer has a nameplate capacity of around 170,000 barrels a day. And, historically, that has been running about 140,000, 145,000. So we're working with our midstream provider to see if we can increase that operational time. We're looking at additional compression in certain areas. We're also looking at, on the truck side of the equation, putting in delivery stations that are closer to the location so we can increase our truck activities so they don't have to drive so far. So there are just a number of things from an operational perspective that we're looking at. We also have had discussions with our midstream provider and with others about providing enhanced capacity out of the area, and those discussions continue on. But nothing has been finalized.
Arun Jayaram - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker):
Thank you very much.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Scott Hanold from RBC Capital Markets.
Scott Hanold - RBC Capital Markets LLC:
Hey, thanks. Congratulations on the quarter and good luck, John, on your retirement.
John Richels - President and Chief Executive Officer:
Thank you.
Scott Hanold - RBC Capital Markets LLC:
You bet. My question is a quick follow-up on the Permian Basin. You take a look at that increase to potentially 11,000 gross unrisked locations, which is obviously meaningfully higher. When you look at that in the various formations you've identified, is that fairly – should I assume that it's fairly prorated to what you already have out there on a risked basis? Or is there more upside in specific formations like the Bone Spring?
David A. Hager - Chief Operating Officer:
Well, let's talk through the – there are several areas we see upside. We see significant upside in the Bone Spring as we do these downspacing pilots that we highlighted in the operations report. We also see upside in the Bone Spring from this upper sand, this A Sand that I've been talking about, where we talked about the first two wells. So when you combine those two, there is significant potential inventory expansion because of those two factors. Additionally, in the 5,000 risked that we've been talking about historically, compared to the 11,000 unrisked number, we haven't been including anything from the Wolfcamp. We see probably four members of the Wolfcamp that are potentially prospective across Lea and Eddy counties. So that's a big driver also. Then, to a lesser degree, we do see some upside also on the Leonard and the Delaware Sands. But the two big drivers, I would say, would be the increase of potential in the Bone Spring, which again, we think is the most economic opportunity thus far in the play, and then in the Wolfcamp.
Scott Hanold - RBC Capital Markets LLC:
Okay. Appreciate that. And in the Eagle Ford, you did touch on – obviously the upper Eagle Ford is looking encouraging. And, Dave, what is your view on the play right now based on what you've recently seen? And if you do get more excited, is there more acreage acquisition opportunities targeting that trend?
David A. Hager - Chief Operating Officer:
Well, we probably don't talk too much about acreage acquisition opportunities. There may be some out there, but we're not going to get into detail on that too much. But I would say, from our mapping, we see the thickest part of this really being in DeWitt County over our existing acreage. We're very, very encouraged what we're seeing so far. We've had encouraging results to the northeast in Lavaca County, and as we're starting to move more into DeWitt County, we're seeing better well results. We're also learning better how to complete these wells. I think you've seen even as you can go way to the southwest beyond our DeWitt County acreage, you've seen another operator talk about encouraging results. I think they call it the Austin Chalk. And it's really the same marl formation as what we are talking about here. So we're very encouraged with the results thus far, and we still don't think we've necessarily drilled the best part of it. And so we think it is going to be a very economic play. It's a little different. It's not necessarily a shale. It's more of a marl, which is more like a limestone, really. And so your spacing may be a little bit wider. We don't know for sure. We're thinking maybe 160, but it's too early to say for sure. But we're very encouraged with what we've seen so far.
Scott Hanold - RBC Capital Markets LLC:
Okay. So the way I'm hearing your comments, you are increasingly becoming more optimistic at this point?
David A. Hager - Chief Operating Officer:
Absolutely.
Scott Hanold - RBC Capital Markets LLC:
Thank you.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Doug Leggate at Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
Doug Leggate - Bank of America – Merrill Lynch:
Thanks. Good morning, everybody. And let me join – echo my congratulations. And, Dave, we're looking forward to seeing your impact, more so than you've already done already. A couple questions if I may, fellows. But maybe going back to the Eagle Ford. I guess BHP as operator has raised some concern that they wanted to kind of slow things down a little bit. I'm guessing that the infrastructure is going to kind of do that for them. But what my question really is, how do you change your capital allocation in light of the 400-odd unrisked locations in the upper Eagle Ford? And you've obviously got a much bigger opportunity set than your partner. So that's kind of my first question. I've got a second in the Permian, please.
David A. Hager - Chief Operating Officer:
Well, what we're trying to do right now, overall, Doug, is to match our activity with the availability of capacity with our infrastructure. And now we're trying to expand that capacity, and Darryl highlighted that. If you look at it, at the end of Q1, we had about 130 wells that were currently uncompleted. So we have an inventory to work through. We are staying active with drilling in the area. We have decreased the rig count a little bit, but we're getting also more wells, we're getting increased efficiencies. So we're getting more wells out of a slightly lower rig count. And so we have plenty of wells to be completed. And that's not the limiting factor. The limiting factor at this point is just solving some of these infrastructure issues, which we're confident we're going to be able to do. We are so far concentrating the bulk of our activity in the lower Eagle Ford, but we're talking to BHP about the upper Eagle Ford and plan to do some upper Eagle Ford tasks as we move into the heart of the play, which we think would be over the acreage we have with BHP in DeWitt County.
Doug Leggate - Bank of America – Merrill Lynch:
I appreciate that. Thank you. But my follow-up in the Permian, obviously that's a more than potential double on your inventory. I'm just curious if – on the downspacing I guess in the Bone Spring – I'm curious, does that upside include the delineation or testing on the Wolfcamp? Or is that still ahead of us? And if so, again, how does (17:27) capital allocation go in your Delaware position? And I'll leave it there.
David A. Hager - Chief Operating Officer:
When we look at the table that we've referenced in some of our previous disclosures, Doug, we've included no locations for the Wolfcamp. And we've been focused on the second Bone Springs, again because of the returns are higher in that particular pay horizon than others. But we still have a lot of industry activity in and around our position in the Wolfcamp. So we're optimistic. We're building out the technical plans for a rig line right now in the Wolfcamp, and we'll probably drill – out of the 150 gross wells that we'll drill in the Delaware, about half a dozen of those will be in the Wolfcamp this year, and another half a dozen will be in the Leonard. But the focus again continues to be the second Bone Springs just because we're trying to maximize returns in this environment.
Doug Leggate - Bank of America – Merrill Lynch:
Just to be clear, that greater than 11,000 mentioned in the ops report, is there any Wolfcamp in there or not?
David A. Hager - Chief Operating Officer:
There is on the gross expected locations of 11,000. There's not in the net risked count that we've disclosed.
Doug Leggate - Bank of America – Merrill Lynch:
Got it. All right, thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Charles Meade with Johnson Rice. Your line is open.
Charles A. Meade - Johnson Rice & Co. LLC:
Yes, good morning, gentleman, and congratulations also from me to you, John. If I could just bang a little bit more on the Bone Springs results, because this really so tantalizing. Dave, if I remember, about a year ago, I think, when you guys were expanding your – or one of the many times you expanded your inventory in the Bone Springs, at one point you described the logs out here as just like railroad tracks, like it's hard to see what makes one zone different from the other. And, as I'm looking at this now, can you give a bit of a narrative on why it is that you're looking at the upper now, and what's appealing to you? And I guess that would also go for the third Bone Springs, which is – you're going to do in one of your pilots. And what led you to that? And what could be in the future?
David A. Hager - Chief Operating Officer:
Yeah, I remember giving that description. I think that the short answer is that you have to test these wells really to know how successful you are going to be. And that's what we've – we decided to do some tests in the upper Bone Spring, and we're continuing to appraise other areas, but it does take testing to really understand just how good they are. So, Tony, you want to expand on that?
Tony D. Vaughn - Executive Vice President-Exploration & Production:
Sure will. Charles, I think the technical guys are doing a lot better job now of calibrating all the surface data we have, and of course we're getting a lot more control points as we continue to test. They're looking at micro-seismic results, and we're trying to understand what kind of a stimulator rock volume that we contact when we do our frac work there, and I think that what we're generally seeing is that while we're landing and spending most of our concentrated energy in the lower portions of the second Bone Springs, we know we're contacting a little bit upward into the middle, but we haven't seen evidence that we're contacting into the very upper portion of the second Bone. So it's really just, as we do in a lot of these type of plays where the rock is not that favorable or certainly not that obvious from first inspection, it takes a little bit more science to uncover that, and a lot of the subsurface data points just gives us a little bit more information to lead our developments down the road.
Charles A. Meade - Johnson Rice & Co. LLC:
That's helpful. And then, following up on the type curve adjustment you guys had. So you bumped the IPs by about 60%, but on your operations report, the graph right above there says your cum through 180 days is also up 60%. And so it looks like that's not just an IP effect but it's a sustained effect that you're seeing, sustained production uplift. So, if I put those two pieces together, it looks like the EUR is – maybe this is what you mean by the (21:41) but that EUR of 600 MBoe really looks to me like that's going to go higher. Is that -
David A. Hager - Chief Operating Officer:
Well, that is an increase, Charles, from – if you go back a couple quarters, we said 450 MBoe plus. And I made the flippant comment it could've been plus, plus, plus, if I remember right.
Charles A. Meade - Johnson Rice & Co. LLC:
Right.
David A. Hager - Chief Operating Officer:
Well, so now we are saying 600 MBoe in the basin. And I think what – the comment that Tony also made earlier, I hope you caught that, is about a third of the wells we're drilling up in the slope are following the basin curve. And we haven't increased it on the slope yet, but we have some evidence so far that we may have some better results coming in the future on the slope as well. But that is an increase from – we've never come out with that 600 MBoe number specifically. Before we just said 450 MBoe plus.
Charles A. Meade - Johnson Rice & Co. LLC:
Okay. Thank you, Dave.
David A. Hager - Chief Operating Officer:
And there may be some upside in the basin from that also, frankly. But we'll see how it goes.
Charles A. Meade - Johnson Rice & Co. LLC:
Right, right. Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Jeffrey Campbell with Tuohy Brothers Investment Research. Your line is open.
Jeffrey L. Campbell - Tuohy Brothers Investment Research, Inc.:
Morning, and I'd like to also begin by saying happy trails to John.
John Richels - President and Chief Executive Officer:
Thanks, Jeff.
Jeffrey L. Campbell - Tuohy Brothers Investment Research, Inc.:
You've certainly left Devon a much better company than it was when you took over. I wanted to actually talk about the Powder River Basin Parkman results, because I thought they were really quite impressive, particularly since some peers have retreated from the area during the downturn. I just wanted to ask a couple of things. If you want to count it as two questions, it's fine with me. What percentage of your focus area can support the 9,600-foot laterals that you highlighted? Will you drill shorter laterals where the geometry of the acreage requires it? And, finally, will you take your Parkman approach to the Turner or to the Frontier and see if they can show similar uplift?
David A. Hager - Chief Operating Officer:
Thanks for noticing the results, Jeff. I think what we spent is – if you go back in 2013, early portion of 2014, we spent a lot of our capital on the efforts really delineating a very large, broad area there in the Powder, as you know. And we have centered in on a couple of what we call sweet spots in the Parkman and in the Turner. So the work that you're seeing now is us being able to confirm repeated high return-type work in those sweet spots. And most of that has been in the Parkman. We find that there's a great uplift with extended laterals, and we will continue to do that when possible. We also find that we're bringing on – starting to bring on some extended Turner wells right now, so we'll have a little bit better knowledge of what that will look like. But I would expect the Turner to follow the Parkman results. And in terms of the total inventory, I think we've commented that we have about 1,000 locations in the Powder. We picked up a little bit more acreage in Q1 and supported our Tier 1 position in the Parkman and Turner. That adds to that location count. So on a normal lateral basis, that location count goes up a few hundred if not 300 more locations, but really goes up to 1,450 as I see in the operations report now. But we're trying to reduce that by drilling the extended-reach wells, and we think that if we can do that and core up our position, we can drop that to about 800 and see the results that you just saw this last quarter. So we're very excited about the Powder position right now.
Jeffrey L. Campbell - Tuohy Brothers Investment Research, Inc.:
Okay, thanks very much. I appreciate it.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Ryan Todd with Deutsche Bank. Your line is open.
Ryan Todd - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Great, thanks. Good morning, gentleman. Maybe if I could follow up with a couple questions on capital allocation. I guess one in the near term in 2015, if limitations persisted from the second quarter on, in terms of the debottlenecking in the Eagle Ford, what's your ability to deploy capital elsewhere in the portfolio? Can you make up the difference by accelerating activity in the Permian or the Anadarko Basin?
David A. Hager - Chief Operating Officer:
Well, we don't really see that the limitations that we're seeing in the Eagle Ford at this point are going to really change our capital requirements there on a very significant level at all. So it's kind of a hypothetical question, I guess you'd say, because we just don't see that to be a limiting factor. Now, obviously, in the future – I'll expand your question. Longer term, we absolutely plan to increase our rig count in the Permian and in the Delaware Basin, because we are expanding the inventory so much. Now, we don't see that so much as a 2015 event at this point. We're balancing our cash flows with our returns and the available infrastructure and the other limitations, permits, et cetera, that we have in the Delaware Basin. But longer term, we absolutely plan to expand our activity in the Delaware Basin and most likely in other plays, such as the – up in the Powder River Basin as well. And we have scope eventually as prices improve to deploy more capital also in the Cana-Woodford area. So we have a lot of opportunities in the inventory, but we don't see a significant change to where we're spending the money in 2015.
Ryan Todd - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Great and maybe that segues into a discussion on 2016 on the allocation of capital. But can you talk a little bit about moving pieces in the portfolio, maybe in the case of a flat year-on-year CapEx environment? How much spend do you have rolling off year on year from 2015 to 2016 in areas like the oil sands or other places that would allow for incremental dollars to flow into places like the Eagle Ford, the Permian, and the Anadarko? And then with incremental – as you think about incremental capital growth from 2016 and beyond, can you rank maybe where the dollars go back into in terms of Eagle Ford versus Permian versus the Anadarko or other?
John Richels - President and Chief Executive Officer:
Ryan, when you think about where we're allocating our capital this year and what – where you might, to your question, where you might drop some capital in the future, we're spending about $700 million this year in Canada. That was largely as a result of some ongoing projects that were well under way, and also the engineering and delineation appraisal work that we're doing on Pike. And so, on a going-forward basis, that could drop to somewhere around $200 million, $250 million just for the ongoing maintenance capital for the oil sands. So that drives the $500 million, I guess, of less expenditure there. We also had some expenditures this year as we were finishing up the program in the Miss and the Southern Midland Basin that you could see curtailing next year. So those additions – and then costs, of course. We're seeing costs go down significantly as we discussed, and we still think by year-end, we'll see costs 20% or 25% below where they were in the fourth quarter of 2014. So that rolls through as well. So there's some fairly significant chunks that you could see coming off. And it's a little hard to force rank. There's no question that our Eagle Ford is giving the best returns in our portfolio. But after that, as you look at the Delaware Basin, some of the work that we're doing in the Anadarko Basin, and as Dave said earlier, and Tony, the really positive results that we've seen in the Parkman, in the Rockies, they kind of fall into that next bucket. And you'd kind of be making decisions there not based on a full basin analysis but on incremental rigs and where you're drilling within those basins. So, as Dave said, we've got lots of opportunities, and if we were in that flat pricing environment, we also have some additional cash that frees up.
Ryan Todd - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Great. Thank you. That's very helpful.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of John Herrlin from Société Générale.
John P. Herrlin - SG Americas Securities LLC:
Yeah, hi. Just a quick one from the ops report. In the Eagle Ford, you mentioned that you're using a diverter and 100 mesh sand. Can you address that a little bit? Are you trying to put more sand at individual intervals, Dave? What's going on there?
Tony D. Vaughn - Executive Vice President-Exploration & Production:
John, this is Tony. John, we're taking a engineered approach to our completion work in the Eagle Ford, so we're capturing a lot more science than we historically have done. We are trying to look at the rock that we drilled with our open-hole logs and design our fracs according to what we think will be successful to pump our jobs away. So we are using the 100 mesh trying to increase the total volume of sand into the wells, but we're also trying to be thoughtful in where we place that. And I think when you look at the results that we're seeing there, we've increased the results from our completions. We're also working with BHP, and their design is also changing greatly over the last year that we've been involved with them. Their completion results are also being upgraded as well. So I think between the two of us taking a slightly different approach, we are driving our completion results to be much more effective than we have in the past.
John P. Herrlin - SG Americas Securities LLC:
Great. Thank you.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of David Tameron from Wells Fargo.
David R. Tameron - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
Good morning. Yeah, John, I'm going to echo my sentiments for a happy retirement, and congrats on what you've done at Devon.
John Richels - President and Chief Executive Officer:
Thank you, David.
David R. Tameron - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
If I just think – I want to go back to the Eagle Ford. And if I start thinking about big picture, I mean, you're adding 20,000 – or you added whatever you added, 23,000 barrels, I guess. 24,000 barrels during the quarter. When you start talking about 170,000 and I know you can go over nameplate, how should we think about this asset in 2016, I guess? Do you kind of ramp to that 180,000 level, and kind of sit at that level? Or how should we think about that?
David A. Hager - Chief Operating Officer:
Well, we aren't giving specific 2016 guidance at this point, David. But I can tell you we're real happy with how it's performed. And I think one of the key things is also going to be just how successful we are in debottlenecking the infrastructure here, and that's going to determine to some degree what our 2016 production is. But you can see we're just producing outstanding results, and until we work through the debottlenecking and we really work through our whole capital allocation, we're just trying to not get in too much detail at this point about 2016 production, I guess you'd say. But we're certainly very happy with the results we've had thus far.
David R. Tameron - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
Okay. Let me ask another question, just thinking about 2016. Kind of what's your framework or how should we think about your framework for – no matter what the price environment, whether it's $50, $70, $80, $60, whatever the number is, kind of what's your goal from a corporate perspective as far as cash flow, CapEx? How should we think about that?
John Richels - President and Chief Executive Officer:
Well, David, yeah, we said before that within some reasonable limits going forward, we want to live somewhere around cash flow, but cash flow can be different things. There's the operating cash flow. We also have other levers that we have been able to pull in the past. And so it's just a – we've got a lot of flexibility. It's a great thing about having a very strong balance sheet and a strong financial position in a tough market. But, philosophically, over time, we want to balance our capital expenditures somewhere close to what our cash flow is.
David R. Tameron - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
Okay. I'll leave it at that. Congrats on a good quarter, and good operational detail. Appreciate it. Thanks.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Brian Singer from Goldman Sachs.
Brian A. Singer - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Thank you. Good morning.
John Richels - President and Chief Executive Officer:
Morning, Brian.
Brian A. Singer - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Congrats to John and Dave. On the Meramec, you've now derisked 60,000 acres, and wanted to see both what portion of the remaining 220,000 acres has scope for the oil window, what your delineation plans are there? And then, when you look at a well being drilled there, I think you talked about 51% overall liquids, how you see that changing if at all through the life of the well?
Tony D. Vaughn - Executive Vice President-Exploration & Production:
Brian, this is Tony. Brian, just – I think what we highlighted in our operations report is we had about 60,000 acres exposed to the – what we call the oil and liquids-rich window. Industry and Devon and our partner, we're currently delineating the fluid gradients through – across the field. But order of magnitude, I would estimate that our exposure just to the low-GOR oily window would be, order of magnitude, of about – less than 5,000 acres. Most of our exposure is going to be what I would call the condensate liquid-rich window, and that would be the 60,000 acres – largely the 60,000 acres, Brian.
Brian A. Singer - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Got it. And then, does the well have a disproportionately higher liquids content initially? Or is it kind of 51% overall through the life, in your estimates?
Tony D. Vaughn - Executive Vice President-Exploration & Production:
Well, we really don't have a lot of historical performance to look at that, but we're expecting that the performance and really the liquid content will mimic a lot of the results we've already seen in the Cana-Woodford portion of our play there. Not a lot of difference at this time, but I got to tell you, Brian, it's real early. Not a lot of performance data to tell us that.
Brian A. Singer - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Great. And then, lastly, in the Permian, a lot of time spent talking about the Delaware Basin, obviously a lot of improvements and efficiencies going on there. I wonder if the extent of that opportunity set makes the meager Midland Basin assets less strategic in how you're thinking about the Midland?
David A. Hager - Chief Operating Officer:
Well, we always look at our portfolio, Brian. That's, I think, one thing you can say about Devon. If you look at what we've done over the last two years that we have really high-graded a portfolio, and we don't ever consider that job fully finished. We think part of our job is to bring in top-tier assets, and then when assets can be more effectively handled by somebody else or create more value through a transaction, we'll consider that. So I'm not going to get too specific on the Midland Basin, I wouldn't say. We like Martin County, and we've had some historical success in the Southern Midland Basin and Wolfcamp, not quite as strong of economics over there, though, obviously. So we are constantly looking at what's the best return for our shareholders overall as far as whether should keep or do something with it. And certainly, the answer to this question is oil price dependent also. If oil prices move up, it significantly impacts the economics of our Midland Basin opportunities. So it's not just a – you have to evaluate it pretty carefully in different oil price scenarios.
Brian A. Singer - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Great. Thank you so much.
Operator:
Our next comes from the line of James Sullivan from Alembic Global.
James Sullivan - Alembic Global Advisors LLC:
Hey. Good morning, folks. Congrats to John and Dave both, also. Could you just remind me, to hop back over to the Bone Spring again, what is the average lateral length you guys are drilling out there right now? And what are you using for your type well? What is that based on in terms of a lateral length?
David A. Hager - Chief Operating Officer:
These are just normal laterals, so they're about 5,000 feet at this point. We do like the opportunity to drill extended laterals or extended-reach wells when we can. And so, as we move into some of the other horizons, maybe the Wolfcamp and Leonard, you're going to see us move up into maybe the 7,500-foot lateral length. But, for now, most of our work and certainly the type curves are based on a 5,000-foot lateral.
James Sullivan - Alembic Global Advisors LLC:
Okay. Great. Just to follow up on that point, and I guess what I'm trying to get at here is, I know folks have talked about it a little bit more with the Wolfcamp, but is it a priority for you, as the focus continues to be the second Bone Spring, is it a priority for you to block off your acreage to give yourselves more double sections to drill longer laterals for the second Bone Spring? I know you do have a couple of blockier areas where you can do that already. But maybe more opportunity to do that. Is it a priority for you guys? And if it is, would you consider a bigger, more comprehensive kind of acreage swap with one of the other operators in the basin there?
David A. Hager - Chief Operating Officer:
Well, we would. We're always trying to block up acreage everywhere we work. The Delaware Basin is an area that, as you know, we're committed to. So we would love to have both a larger footprint and a more contiguous footprint, so our guys are always trying to work those opportunities. And we'll continue to expand the position and get our footprint to the point we can have the most optimum development plan possible. So, yeah, I think we would be interested in considering a trade to core up our position there.
James Sullivan - Alembic Global Advisors LLC:
Okay, great. Thanks, guys. I'll jump back in the queue.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Paul Grigel from Macquarie.
Paul Grigel - Macquarie Capital (USA), Inc.:
Hi. Good morning. Most have been asked. Just wanted to get the latest thoughts on looking at 2016 in regards to hedging? And if there's a plan for instituting some hedges, a little bit more agnostic of prices or if it'll be a little bit more active? Or if you prefer to enter the year, depending on prices, without hedges?
Darryl G. Smette - Executive VP-Marketing, Midstream & Supply Chain:
Yeah, this is Darryl. As we've said before, we would like, over any given point in time, to have about 50% of our oil and our natural gas financially hedged. Currently, we have no hedges for 2016, although we're very well hedged for 2015. Our current thought is that as we look at commodity prices, we think there's a lot more room for upside than there is downside. And so we have not executed on 2016. We do have a process by which we consider hedging opportunities every couple weeks within our company. And so while we'll not give you any specific prices under which we would hedge, it is an ongoing discussion. But again, our overall thought is that we'd like to have about 50% of our oil and gas hedged at any given point in time. So it's something we look at all the time, continue to look at. But in the current price environment, when we look at the natural gas and the oil strip for 2016, it's not something that excites us.
Paul Grigel - Macquarie Capital (USA), Inc.:
Okay, great. Thanks for the color.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Sameer Uplenchwar from GMP Securities.
Sameer Uplenchwar - GMP Securities LP:
Hi, good morning, guys. And congrats, John. And best of luck for you in the retirement.
John Richels - President and Chief Executive Officer:
Thanks, Sameer.
Sameer Uplenchwar - GMP Securities LP:
What I'm trying to understand is, if I'm looking at 2016 – I know this question has been asked before; I'm just trying to get a direct answer. Is – what do you need to see to put rigs back to work, like, from a cost perspective? From an oil price perspective? Gas price perspective? Just trying to understand, because right now we're in a low price environment. But what happens in second half 2015 if prices move higher? How should we think about that?
John Richels - President and Chief Executive Officer:
Well, Sameer, that's obviously a hard question to answer, and we're not trying to be evasive about 2016, but we're so early in thinking about 2016, and there are so many variabilities – costs and prices and all of the other variables that go into that. But I think what we would say is, whatever the price is, we're going to focus our efforts next year in the areas where we're going to drive the highest returns, or get the best rate of returns. And there are going to be some funds for that that will be available to us in even the next – in those really good areas where we've been driving the higher rates of return for next year. So, because we'll spend less dollars in a couple of the other places that we're committed to going into 2015. So there's just a whole lot of variables right now, and we're so early in the process in determining what 2016 looks like, it's really hard for us to give you an answer there. But you ought to feel that – take away from this that our focus on the Eagle Ford, on the Delaware Basin, this emerging opportunity we have in the Rockies, which looks pretty good, are all areas that are going to drive high rates of return, and we'll focus on those areas whatever our capital budget ends up being.
Sameer Uplenchwar - GMP Securities LP:
Perfect. And then, on a broader basis, everybody's, including Devon's, well results continue to improve in the Eagle Ford and Bone Springs. I'm just trying to understand, what is Devon doing differently versus peers? And where is Devon leveraging on peers or partners, and just trying to get an idea about that longer laterals completion designs, or what have you? Thank you.
David A. Hager - Chief Operating Officer:
Well, if I understood the question, what we're doing in the Bone Spring that's different, I think two things. One, we have some of the best geology for the Bone Spring, and so our acreage happens to be located where some of the best Bone Spring opportunities are. And, second, we think we are leading the industry in our completion technology. We have really made a conscious decision to step out and test various size sand concentrations and stepping up to 3,000 pounds of sand per foot and that too in some areas, so we can really understand what's the right size completion to put on each of our specific areas. And it's obviously a price-dependent issue as well. So, I think what are we doing to lead the way in the Bone Springs? We're fortunate we have good geology. I think we have a good appraisal program going on, a good development program. And we're testing the various zones, and we are really, I think, leading the way with our completions at this point in the industry also. So, Tony, you want to add to that?
Tony D. Vaughn - Executive Vice President-Exploration & Production:
Yeah, Sameer, I think what I'd add to you, and we talked about this at the last call. But our technical teams are putting a lot more science and a lot more work into the subsurface characterizations of the projects we work on. So we're taking a lot more cores, pressures, temperatures. We have fiber optics in all the plays that we're currently working, so we're able to calibrate all that information. On the execution side, the guys are doing a really good work. I think we've talked about standing up our well-con (46:25) center. So we're maintaining – we have 24-hour coverage of every drill bit that we're operating right now. So we're keeping the wells, the trajectory flat. We're keeping them in zone more than we have in the past. All that's really adding to a better completion. It's hard to measure the work that we do and where it ends up, but I think the outperformance that you've seen in the last couple quarters has been associated with just some good quality work from our technical people.
Sameer Uplenchwar - GMP Securities LP:
Perfect. Thank you.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Jeffrey Campbell from Tuohy Brothers Investments.
Jeffrey L. Campbell - Tuohy Brothers Investment Research, Inc.:
Wow, this is like Christmas. Back here again. Thank you. Let me ask two real quick questions. The first one is with regard to the second Bone Spring stacking test, the stacking pilots. The first – the Pilot 3 and Pilot 4, are those located in the basin area? And Pilot 5, because it's got a third Bone Spring well in it, is it located someplace else?
Tony D. Vaughn - Executive Vice President-Exploration & Production:
They're mostly in the basin. We have several pilots there, but I'd also let you know that we've got a couple up on the slope. So we're testing the downspacing concept mostly in the second Bone Spring. But we're trying to understand the relationship when these staggered laterals approach and just simply the downspacing in the same interval. We're testing these concepts in original pressured environments. We're also testing these concepts in partially depleted areas to know what we might be able to come back to and further develop our current position in.
Jeffrey L. Campbell - Tuohy Brothers Investment Research, Inc.:
Okay, that's great. The other quick question I just wanted to ask. Slide 16, in the Anadarko, you showed a number of zones of interest. Was just wondering if you guys have tested or have any plan to test the Springer? Some of the peers in the mid-con are calling the Springer comparable or superior to the stack. Thank you.
Tony D. Vaughn - Executive Vice President-Exploration & Production:
Well, we do have exposure to other intervals inside of the Mississippian there, and so our guys are looking at all of these intervals. We don't have a lot of data to talk about at this point, but we're not oblivious to some of these other opportunities, and we will be testing some of these with time.
Jeffrey L. Campbell - Tuohy Brothers Investment Research, Inc.:
Great. Thank you.
David A. Hager - Chief Operating Officer:
Looking at the queue, it looks like we're getting fairly near the end of the calls, but I was thinking – there's one area we thought we might be asked about and we haven't been and I may, since we have a couple minutes here, I might ask Tony just to make a comment about it, our refrac program in the Barnett. And this is a program that we're really proud of how it's proceeding so far, and we see some real upside associated with that. So, Tony, you want to make a comment on that?
Tony D. Vaughn - Executive Vice President-Exploration & Production:
Sure. Dave, like you mentioned, we were expecting a call on our refracs. We've heard a lot of that from our shareholders in the past. And I guess I want to – or kind of summarize the work that we're doing. We're excited about this opportunity across our entire position. We've seen such a dramatic improvement in our completion results with the newer technology that we're incorporating on our original completions that we've gone back and are starting to test some of these new completion techniques with our existing producers. We've already completed about 50 refracs on vertical wells in the Barnett, all with outstanding results, very commercial. We intend to complete a program of about 200 for 2015. We've also – have completed about eight to 10 jobs on horizontal wells in the Barnett on what I would call partially depleted wells. We're encouraged by the work we're seeing there. We're – continue to test that consent. We have also – are testing refracs across the remaining portion of our portfolio. We've tested some in the shallow-water portions of the Permian Basin oil play and also in the Haynesville. We're designing refracs right now for the Eagle Ford and the Cana-Woodford projects. Overall, we understand that there's going to be technical challenges associated with a refrac program. Trying to control where you place the sand is going to be more difficult, but we're doing some real creative work in using science in our North Texas horizontal program to test both chemical diversion and mechanical diversion techniques, and we're encouraged by the work that we are seeing there. So we're using all the technology available, employing all the science that we have from these existing properties that we've been so active in, in the past, and we're just extremely positive about it. We think this could be a significant game changer for a property like the Barnett Shale. We work pretty hard to keep our rate flat at 1.2 Bcf a day, and the guys have done a lot of good work with artificial lift and line pressure reductions. We think this refrac program could be a potential game-changer for the Barnett.
Howard J. Thill - Senior VP-Communications & Investor Relations:
With that, and no questions remaining in the queue, we'd like to thank you for your time and interest in Devon and your thoughtful questions. If you have any follow-ups, please don't hesitate to call Scott, Shea, or myself, and have a wonderful day. Thank you.
Operator:
This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.
Executives:
Howard Thill - SVP, Communications and IR John Richels - President and CEO David Hager - COO Darryl Smette - EVP, Marketing, Facilities, Pipeline and Supply Chain Tony Vaughn - EVP, Exploration and Production Tom Mitchell - EVP and CFO
Analysts:
Doug Leggate - Bank of America Merrill Lynch Subash Chandra - Guggenheim Partners David Tameron - Wells Fargo Securities Bob Brackett - Sanford Bernstein Charles Meade - Johnson Rice Brian Singer - Goldman Sachs Michael Rowe - TPH James Sullivan - Alembic Global David Heikkinen - Heikkinen Energy Arun Jayaram - Credit Suisse John Herrlin - Société Générale Kapil Singh - DoubleLine Capital
Operator:
Good morning. My name is Courtney and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Devon Energy Q4 2014 Earnings Conference Call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speakers’ remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] Thank you. Howard Thill, Senior Vice President of Communications and Investor Relations, you may begin your conference.
Howard Thill:
Thank you, Courtney and good morning everyone. Welcome to Devon’s fourth quarter conference and webcast call. I am Howard Thill, Senior Vice President, Corporate Communications and Investor Relations as Courtney told you for Devon Energy. Also on the call today are John Richels, President and Chief Executive Officer; Dave Hager, Chief Operating Officer; and Tom Mitchell, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer along with a few other members of our senior management team. If you haven’t had a chance to listen to the management commentary, you can find that along with the associated slides and our new operations report at devonenergy.com. Additionally, we have included our forward-looking guidance in our earnings release. I hope you've all had a chance to review those documents as today’s call will largely consist of Q&A. Finally, I’d remind you that comments and answers to questions on this call will contain plans, forecasts, expectations and estimates which are forward-looking statements under U.S. securities law. These comments and answers are subject to a number of assumptions, risks and uncertainties, many of which are beyond our control. These statements are not guarantees of future performance. For a review of risk factors relating to these estimates, see our Form 10-K and subsequent 10-Qs. With that, I’ll turn the call over to our President and CEO, John Richels.
John Richels:
Thank you, Howard. Good morning everyone and thank you for joining us this morning. You have a lot of detail in the operations report that was posted last night I sure hope that you’d like that new disclosure and you find the report very helpful as you work your way through the information. Just before we jump into Q&A, I just like to make a couple of points. The past year was an important really transformational year for Devon and the Company delivered what we think were some outstanding results in 2014. As we discuss our 2014 results today and our outlook for 2015, I hope you come away with three important messages. First, the dramatic portfolio transformation that we accomplished in 2014 has resulted in Devon having a top tier asset portfolio with a deep inventory of high rate of return investment opportunities and years of running room. Secondly, we’re approaching 2015 with caution and with a view to maintaining flexibility given the challenging business environment. With that in mind, we’re laser focused on execution which is allowing us to decrease E&P capital spending by roughly 20% in 2015 without any reduction in our previous total production growth guidance or our previous guidance of 20% to 25% oil production growth. And lastly, we have a terrific balance sheet that continues to be one of the strongest in the E&P sector and we have a very strong hedge position, ample liquidity and a number of other financial leverage that give us superior financial strength and flexibility in the current business environment. So in spite of the challenging macro environment, we think we are very well poised to deliver superior returns for our shareholders in the upcoming years. Again thank you for joining us and with that I’ll turn the call over to Howard to start the Q&A. Howard?
Howard Thill:
Thanks John. And before we start, I’d ask you to make certain that we can get as many people as possible on the call that you limit yourself to two questions. And you can re-prompt to ask additional questions as time may permit. So Courtney with that we’re ready to take our first question.
Operator:
Certainly. Your first question comes from the line of Doug Leggate with Bank of America. Your line is open.
Doug Leggate:
If I may take prospectus first of all on the increase in the type curve on the Eagle Ford I guess I was looking for some incremental disclosure on the rest of the Eagle Ford position Lavaca I guess the Upper Eagle Ford inventory potential because the reserve life there rather the drilling life is still relatively short and in the current price oil environment I am just curious as to how do you think about that inventory as we go forward? And I’ve got a quick follow-up please.
David Hager:
Hi Doug this is Dave. Well, we’re very encouraged with what we’re seeing obviously in the Eagle Ford we’re up the type curve due to the results that we’ve had with our optimized completions. We also -- the production optimization specifically the choke management have yielded outstanding results and you can see highlighted some increase in the type curve and then a few incredibly great wells, greater than 3,000 Boe per day on a 30 day IP. We have decreased the drilling activity somewhat in the -- or the rig activity somewhat in the Eagle Ford we’ve dropped down we were thinking we’re going to go from around 15 to 16 rigs, we’re down around 10 rigs in DeWitt County and then we’ll be drilling some wells in Lavaca County this year and we will also continue appraising the Upper Eagle Ford. We’re very encouraged with earlier results that we see in the Upper Eagle Ford at this point. Lavaca County is still a part of the overall program. I have talked about previously how it’s a little bit thinner over there you don’t get quite the rates in the EUR as you do in the other and given the current commodity price environment we think it’s prudent to focus our activity in DeWitt County but we have a strategy for holding on to the Lavaca County acreage and that will be part of our go forward program when commodity prices recover somewhat. So we still have Lavaca it is there the DeWitt County and the Lower Eagle Ford just keeps getting better and we still don’t have the results from the Devon completion that we did here and start coming online here at the first year, but these are from the revised BHP completions, we think took us about 80% away to where we want to go with the completions on and that’s getting significantly better and the earlier results on the Upper Eagle Ford are encouraging. We just need to get more appraisal activity. So I think overall it’s positive and with the lower growing activity and with the Upper Eagle Ford potential there, there is potential for lengthening the inventory that we have.
Doug Leggate:
I appreciate the answer Dave, hopefully my second questions will quicker. Obviously there is a lot debate over how quickly and what scale of cost reduction the industry can expect in this lower oil price environment so I was just -- if you could give us Devon’s perspective please in terms of what have you assumed in your capital budget by way of cost reduction and then ultimately where do you think it can get to sort of by year-end as opposed to the average for the year? And I will leave it there. Thank you.
David Hager:
I think your question was quick on the first one my answer was long so it wasn’t your fault, but I’m going to turn it over to Darryl Smette he is going to talk a little bit about the cost reduction.
Darryl Smette:
Yes Doug, just to kind of set the basis here what I’m going to do is give you some numbers and they’re going to be in relationship to the cost environment we saw in the fourth quarter of 2014. So what we’ve seen so far is a cost reduction on different phases of our CapEx from drilling rigs to drill bit to LTG those types of things of about 10% compared to the fourth quarter. We are still in meaningful discussions with all of our equipment and service providers. We have high hopes that we will continue to drive additional cost out of that system. Right now we’re hoping that we could get an additional 10% to 15% by year-end. What we have currently in our budget is a 10% reduction from fourth quarter and that does not include any efficiency as it we might gain from our operational people that is just price related to our service providers.
Doug Leggate:
So 25% would be the total dollar just to be clear?
Darryl Smette:
That would be a comparison of fourth quarter 2014 versus fourth quarter 2015.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Subash Chandra with Guggenheim. Your line is open.
Subash Chandra:
First question is on the uncompleted inventory, how do you see that exiting ’15 versus ’14?
David Hager:
Yes this is Dave again. Talking specifically in the Eagle Ford, we had about 150 wells they were not completed at the end of 2014. We have decreased our completion crews out there. We did have nine crews working at one point. We’ve started five. We added four more, two of which were Devon operated. We’ve gone from nine down to four at this point three of which are BHP operated, one of which is Devon operated. The Devon operated crew is also in DeWitt County. We’re going to do a few more wells there and then we’re going to move it to Lavaca County and then after that we’ll be dropping that completion crew also. Having said all that we do anticipate the uncompleted inventory in Eagle Ford to basically have by the end of the year. So somewhere on the order of 70-75 uncompleted wells there. The other key area I’d say that we have an uncompleted inventory is in the Delaware Basin and the Permian Basin overall we have about 55 or so wells in the Permian Basin I think about 35 in the Delaware Basin that are uncompleted and that’s going to be part of the basis of our growth as we move into 2015 as we drive that inventory down to probably more on the order of 20 to 25 uncompleted wells by the end of ’15. So we’re taking a measured approach at this in light of the current price environment but we will be driving the inventory down.
Subash Chandra:
And a follow-up I guess I will wait for some details in the K but any sort of flavor you can add for the ’14 reserves sort of where the hits and misses or the highs and lows were as far as reserve credit you might may or may not have gotten?
David Hager:
Take a shot John and I will add to it.
John Richels:
So Subash, what we look in our 2014 I mean some of the big pieces, and you’re right you’ll be able to get lot more detail but some of the highlights of that I guess was the light oil reserve additions were very-very strong we actually added about 200% of our light oil 2014 light oil production to the extent there were some downward revisions they were largely gas as a result of the five year rule if my memory serves me correct I think it’s 74 million barrels were related to that. So they’re just off because we’re not developing that gas right now and it will come back at the right time. Dave, do you have anything to add to that?
David Hager:
I think that’s the key we had extensions discoveries around 200 million barrels or so and we purchase of about 265 million barrels we had revisions other than price of negative 65 million and that was essentially all of that and although more it was due to the five year rule so that’s the key highlight. So we think when we put it all together from a all-in F&D standpoint or drill bit F&D we had very competitive metrics.
Subash Chandra:
Yes, I guess I was sort of looking at in context of what you’d spent in ’14 versus ’13, look to be a bit more and with revisions or say even without revisions look to be about the same as the prior year if there was any read through in that?
David Hager:
Well, the one thing you have to keep in mind in general when you’re thinking about F&D is that as we shift to oil the F&D maybe a little bit higher but it’s still has the value equation makes it more than worthwhile as you still are on from a returns standpoint you still get much higher returns. But as you make the shift like we have to oil, oil F&D tends to be a little bit higher.
Subash Chandra:
Okay, that is all. Thank you.
John Richels:
And as we said Subash the bulk of that or a big piece of that reserve addition was on the light oil side which is our highest margin product as well.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of David Tameron with Wells Fargo. Your line is open.
David Tameron:
If I think about the ability to ramp in the second half of the year and kind of how you guys are with price sensitivity and I assume like every other E&P company you’ve run 10-15 different scenarios since October-November. But how should we think about if oil comes back to 65, what’s that look like can you just give some general framework and thoughts around that?
David Hager:
Yes this is Dave again. Well there’re a lot of variables that go into that equation and we’re going to give you a fairly non-specific answer here because of that. But we have to look at also what is the cost environment if oil does go back we have to look at what returns we’re getting in each of those plays, what the takeaway capacity is, what the drilling results are, et cetera. So there is -- it's ought to be too specific on that I would say that the key thing is we have a lot of flexibility both to take capital down or to take capital back up. The vast majority of our rigs are on a well-to-well basis. We have very few on a long-term contract. Almost all of our acreage is held by production. So there is no concern with drilling wells just to retain acreage. So we have all the flexibility. So we’ll assess that situation if that were to occur and make the right call understanding we are looking at first the returns at a well level and then second what’s our balance sheet look like.
David Tameron:
And one follow-up on that, if I think about 2016 let’s say I know it’s long ways out. But if I think about oil and where it’s at and let’s say you get those 25% reductions on the service side that you’re targeting by 4Q. Does that set up a scenario where 2016 and I guess would that set up a scenario where margins come in sets the 2016 looks similar to what you would have done in 2013-2014 just at a lower price band. Does that make sense?
David Hager:
Yes, I understand what you are trying to scribe there David. Well, it’s possible that’s true from I think in that scenario and again there is a lot of variables go in there so it’s hard to say for sure. But I think you could paint a scenario where you could be getting similar type returns to what you’re talking about in 2013-2014, you would have to also then consider though the cash flow for the company and the desire that we want to say with a strong balance sheet. So, obviously 65 to 70 you would have lower cash flow than you would have had at $90 a barrel. Having said that, we’re also looking at in addition to what we have talked about we have a lot of productivity gains that we’ve been able to get here through the improved completion design. And so I think at the well level you could just paint a scenario where you could have very-very good returns in that kind of price environment. I think you’d have to look at the overall cash flow for the company and just say how much capital do you want to spend and then maintain a strong balance sheet.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Bob Brackett with Bernstein Research. Your line is open.
Bob Brackett:
I have a question about the JVs and how you allocate capital in the Eagle Ford that BHP JV, how do you develop that plan, do they put forward a plan for the number of rigs and you either consent or not consent or you do it interactively?
David Hager:
Tony Vaughn our Head of E&P is in the room and we’re going to turn the call over to Tony, he was probably the closest of any of us with BHP and we’ll have him answer that.
Tony Vaughn:
Hi Bob this is Tony. I appreciate your question. We do work very closely with BHP. We actually have some of our engineers accounted into the BHP office so it’s very close working relationship. As you know we were running about 15 rigs in DeWitt County three and our Lavaca County work. We jointly decided to reduce activity on the DeWitt side of the business back to 10 it affords us the opportunity to actually high grade the completions and you can see that the type curve was increased from about 1,200 up to 1600 Boe, 1,650 Boes per day but the average for the last quarter was all the way up to 2,100 Boes per day. So it’s really a joint effort. We have a concept of working in a project team environment between the two companies and a lot of synergies there bring all of our technical skills to the table and we just jointly work that process.
Bob Brackett:
Okay. And then a similar JV question on this line it looks like you still have some money left on the carry, why not go ahead and use up that carry since you got at 70%?
Tony Vaughn:
Well, that carry is fungible. So we can move it, if you remember the original was the set up in five different plays and we can use that carry up in the Rockies as well and that’s our intention to use rest of it. The JV money the signer pack is in the Turner and below but they’re not in the Parkman but we will be drilling some Turner wells and that will use up that remaining JV carry and we think that’s the most efficient place to do it.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Charles Meade with Johnson Rice. Your line is open.
Charles Meade:
I’m wondering on the NGL front the guidance you guys gave for pricing surprised me a little bit and I’m wondering from your advantage business point at both a producer but also operating EnLink if you could talk about how you see that market evolving over the course of the year?
Darryl Smette:
Yes, this is Darryl. Obviously NGL prices have really taken a hit. Starting a couple of years ago but just in the last three or four months that has deteriorated even further. There is a couple of things at work there. First of all we’ve had, because of the success the industry has had, we’ve had a tremendous amount of new NGL that has come on to market and that is including virtually all the products but primarily ethane and propane. Over the last few months what you’ve seen is the deterioration in the propane price and that has been caused by a couple of different things, number one the increase in supply but in the middle part of 2014 and early in 2014 we were able to export large portion of that propane internationally because of the downturn in the economies and the low crude oil prices now the crude oil Napa price is able to compete internationally with propane. So the propane price internationally plus the cost does not make that a good exportable product right now. So that has really backed up propane and caused a large growth in storage. As we go forward we don’t see, and let me just add to that, what we had is a very mild winter in some parts of the country especially early on in November and December and so there was on the propane side a number of demand scenarios that didn’t play out because of that warm weather. As we move through the year it’s going to take a while to work off that propane supply. So while we might see some improvement, we have seen some improvement in the last 30 days or so. We still think that propane is going to be under pressure. We do think ethane will continue to be under pressure simply because of all the ethane that is out there. We do not think ethane will start trading above the Btu equivalent of gas until we get into the late 2016 maybe early 2017 as additional pet Cam plants come on-stream. Even though there are some export facilities that will be available at least on the water coming in the next year or two in the current environment we don’t see that helping a lot. So we think ethane is going to continue be under pressure for the next year and a half or so and we think propane as we go through the summer months may improve a bit at least in the near-term that doesn’t give us much hope either.
Charles Meade:
That is a lot of great detail and I’m sure some of the people on the call up in the Northeast are wondering about that mild winter you’re talking about but on the different front your thermal oil in Canada, can you talk a bit about how that asset I know the operational performance looks great, but I’m wondering if you can talking more broad sense how that asset looks in your portfolio now and if you -- how it compares to your light tight opportunities and particularly with the performance but also I know there is a different tax regime up there and all that sort of thing?
Darryl Smette:
Charles, when you look at the -- we got the production continuing to ramp-up in Canada as you know from Jackfish 3 and we actually have another pad coming on at Jackfish 2 to help ramp that production up through the end of ’15 and through all of 2016. We’re not making a lot of capital expenditures and undertaking a lot of capital expenditures in Canada in that heavy oil business today. And this is a business that we always thought you have to take a long-term view on it and you have to be in one of the best projects. And we’re in an area with Jackfish and Pike frankly our neighbors there are Cenovus’ Christina Lake and MEG and we’re in really what appears to be the sweet spot for oil sands development in Canada. So we’re not expanding a lot in terms of additional CapEx right now. The returns from that over the last year have always been cash flow positive even we’re cash flow positive even at a $40 or $45 WTI because we are in one of the very best projects and the returns over the last year have ranged from some of the lower values with the $45 WTI to very high returns when oil was trading at $100 and the differential was 14. So it’s something that you have to take a bit of a long-term view on but it’s still provides at a WTI prices where they are today a pretty good rate of return on cash going forward basis.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Brian Singer with Goldman Sachs. Your line is open.
Brian Singer:
On the cost front your guidance for both lease operating expense and SG&A costs per Boe appears to be rising a bit in 2015 relative to ’14. Can you talk to what’s driving this and if you see or have baked in cost deflation opportunities?
David Hager:
I may start off on the LOE side here briefly and then hand it over to Tom Mitchell to talk about on the G&A side. On the LOE side, the increase is primarily driven just as we continue to shift our portfolio to an oil oriented portfolio versus a gas oriented portfolio. And so if you remember and part of 2014 we still have the conventional gas assets in the Canada as well as the non-core gas assets in the U.S. And so they contributed the overall number for 2014. So it’s just a shift of the portfolio. But in a normalized price environment you are still increasing margins significantly as you move to this oil oriented portfolio. But that’s the only thing on the LOE side. I think Tom can give you little more specifics probably on that and also on the G&A side.
Tom Mitchell:
Yes Brian, on G&A, first of all, you got to remember that reported volumes are down year-on-year when you take out the non-core assets that have been divested so that’s part of it. We do have some increases you’ve got a full year of EnLink in there and EnLink s is up a little bit. And then addition to that and this is really positive and you’re seeing it in our execution some investment has been made primarily on the technical side that’s going into G&A here back in Oklahoma City and a huge investment really in just execution overall within the company and you’re seeing it in our results here in the last few quarters in particular. So those are the primary drivers behind it.
David Hager:
Brian one thing I didn’t answer is we have not assumed any cost savings on the LOE side. Now we are going after those obviously but unlike the capital side where Darryl talked about the cost savings we have not assumed that in our budget case again we are aggressively pursuing those but we have not made that assumption.
Brian Singer:
And then my follow-up actually goes a bit back to the prior question with regards to oil sands. When you think about Pike this is a year I think you said you’re going to be doing the final review as you think about potentially looking at it again for sanction next year. But do you see cost deflation opportunities and have you locked any in, in terms of Pike or future in situ oil sands and what pace is that moving at relative to what you’re seeing in onshore U.S.?
Tom Mitchell:
Brian you are absolutely right we are seeing some cost in. So what we’re doing at Pike now as we’ve previously discussed and Dave can maybe give you if you like some more detail around the engineering. But we’re doing some additional engineering work throughout this year to scope out the project properly and also at the same time scoping out costs because that we’re seeing exactly what you have alluded to we don’t quite know where those costs are all going to work out throughout the year but we think we’re going to have significant cost savings going into a decision as to whether we move ahead and when we move ahead with Pike. And that makes a significant difference if we can keep those costs down. We’re going to revisit the decision on Pike after we’ve done this additional appraisal work and the additional engineering work and scoped up the cost more towards year-end. And in addition to the cost side that will also give us more clarity and some visibility hopefully on FX which is an important factor as well to give us more clarity and visibility on commodity prices and also on differentials because we’ll maybe have a little bit more definition around projects like Keystone XL or TransCanada’s Energy East and Alberta Clipper and Kinder Morgan and the rail process all of those things that go into determining differential. So we’re going to get lot more of that information but we are definitely seeing the cost structure come down, having said that because we’re still working on the final engineering documentation. We haven’t been locking in costs at this point in time but we’ll get a lot more clarity on that as we work our way through the year.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Michael Rowe, TPH. Your line is open.
Michael Rowe:
I actually wanted to go back to comment made earlier just about 2016 and kind your willingness to out spin cash flow. I’m just wondering if hedges kind of roll out in 2016 and current strip price proves to be accurate, could you maybe talk about the ability of your high rate of return Eagle Ford and Delaware Basin assets to sustainably grow within cash flow and if they can’t I mean do you have some level of comfort to out spin cash flow and given your ability to monetize midstream assets to EnLink?
David Hager:
Michael, certainly I mean yes the assets you’re talking about our returns in the Eagle Ford and Permian are very high and certainly maintain that, but as I said in the comments at the beginning, we are in a terrific position obviously to depending on our outlook for the future at the time. We’re in perfect position to take advantage of that because of our strong financial position and because of all of the financial levers that you’ve talked about. So our plan is as we kind of look in the future our plan is to live pretty close to cash flow, but we’ve got a whole lot of other financial levers that we can take advantage of if we felt the time was right and the circumstance at the time were right.
Michael Rowe:
And I guess just the last question I guess would be sort of around your hedging strategy, just given the highlights of return that you can get in the Eagle Ford as an example even today do you have any desire to hedge 2016 at this point and I guess what are your parameters that you’re thinking about internally before you’d make a decision to actually roll on hedges in 2016? Thank you.
David Hager:
Well so far we have -- our philosophy generally has been that we try to lock in about 50% or hedge about 50% of our production and we do that just as a matter of prudence even having a strong balance sheet and having the financial levers it is just to ensure some level of cash flow every year. So that’s our general philosophy. Now we haven’t been layering in a lot of hedges for 2016 at these prices because we believe that the price is going to be higher in 2016. And what we have typically tried to do although we have swapped some volumes, we typically try to do it on collars where we can lock in or protect the floor price and keep some of the upside as well. But given that we haven’t been layering in the hedges at this price we’re going to have to see a little stronger price or we have a change of view in the future. And the other thing that you always have to remember is, we always try to keep in mind is that when we do lock in the price side that doesn’t lock in the cost side. And so you’re only locking in half the equation and so we’re watching where costs are going now and we’re watching where commodity prices are going as we continue to prepare for 2016 and the position we might take in our hedging decisions.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of James Sullivan with Alembic Global. Your line is open.
James Sullivan:
Just wanted to go back to a topic actually from a little minute ago about the NGL pricing you guys gave some nice color there, thanks for that. But I wanted to talk about how that affected your thinking on capital allocation to the Anadarko Basin and CANA specially, obviously the NGL wide rate parallels are kind of a bigger part of the economic proposition for those wells how do you think about that and how is that affecting well economics your generally kind of poor view of the NGL market. I know that you have a bigger asset there now so I’m not sure if we should think of the 400 million is an increase in spending, but just any color on that?
David Hager:
We have a very deep inventory of development opportunities that we’re pursing in the CANA field particularly not to mention now the Meramec that has, we’ve had a couple of good wells in the oil section of the Meramec that we’ve operated and then you can see we are in a number of non-operated Meramec wells that were oil oriented in the past year so that’s kind of a separate story but that’s a very positive story as well. Regarding CANA and the funding of the activity that we’re doing there is the completion designs that have really carried the day to improve the economics and the rates of return that we have out there where we upped the sand count tamp around 3.5 million pounds of sand around 6 million pounds of sand or around from 700 to 1,200 pounds per lateral foot. And we’re frankly testing that over 2,000 pounds per lateral foot now. We may see even further improvements by the size, the type curve, improvement we’ve already described to you. And so that carries the day we have baked these lower NGL prices that Darryl described into our rates of return and bottom-line with the improved completion techniques that we’re seeing these wells compete well with the other opportunities that we’re funding this year because of those improved completion designs.
James Sullivan:
The other thing I had is you guys have talked and this actually goes to some of the work you guys have done in that same filed but about optimizing performance on base production I think you have had some asset jobs that you were doing out there and showing some really nice upticks there. Could you give a rough and I know would have to be rough companywide base decline estimate and that can be either net or not net or whatever maintenance efforts you guys are undertaking eventually in the Barnett too?
Tony Vaughn:
James this is Tony Vaughn again. Our base decline just overall for the company without CapEx is roughly about 20% maybe not quite that high some of the good work that the teams have done across the company have really focused on up time they focused on line pressure reductions in areas like the Barnett and at CANA. As you mentioned we’ve worked on some chemical jobs in CANA that really had a strong boost in our rate and have major rate impact in ’14. The guys are looking at artificial lift with a strong focus on that more than we had in the past so all that collectively in my mind in ’14 was probably one of the primary reasons for outperformance over expectations. And so I think there is a renewed vigor we’ve really segregated our workforce into a couple of different areas. So we have the team in every business unit that’s focused on nothing but the base. We also have a team focused on the execution part of the business as well as the asset management side. So I think we’re just bringing a lot of clarity and a lot of focus to the wellbores that we operate.
David Hager:
And let me just add a little bit to that too I often get asked when I am out meeting with investors why are we doing is this is the new Devon why are we doing so much better operationally and Tony is actually probably even if anything he is underselling the transformation that’s taken place internally to Devon and around the execution around the assets. Bottom-line we are very focused on being one of if not the best operator in each of our core areas and it’s not just words that we’re saying here but about 18 months ago we took some of our top-technical professionals away for a few months along with a couple of consultants and said what new we need to do to transform our operational performance. And what you are seeing today is the results of that effort and there are a number of very specific initiatives that came out of that where we added technical staff that Tom mentioned earlier where we’ve added separated the execution for the long-term asset management. We’ve added project management skills. We have a 24x7 well control center where we manage all the operations of all our wells. We have state of operations we have computerized operations in all of peered office where we remotely monitor production of all the wells. I could go on with several other things but I think that’s what gives us confidence that the tight performance that you’re seeing out of Devon is going to continue on into the future. We’ve got the top assets, we’ve got strong balance sheet you’re seeing the execution now. We’re humble about it but we intend to continue doing what we’re doing and we’re going to keep getting even better.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of David Heikkinen with Heikkinen Energy. Your line is open.
David Heikkinen:
Just thinking about improving service equipment reliability and just the efficiency and pace of wells per rig per year, can you give us some thoughts about fourth quarter ’15 versus fourth quarter ’14 of, is that a 10% improvement or are there any particular areas where mud motors or frac equipment was less reliable and now that the industry has slowed down you’d see a bigger improvement in just that efficiency side as we head into ’16?
Tony Vaughn:
David, this is Tony Vaughn again. I think what you’re describing is well within our expectations for as we go through ’15 as Dave mentioned we’re putting a lot of thoughts into and a lot more granularity into all of our wellbore designs we’re really trying to drive out efficiency using project managements skill to manage cost to stay on schedule. We are starting to see the benefits of that right now. We have incorporated some stretch in inside of each of our business units for the execution part of our work so I think the 2% improvements that you described is relevant I’d also mention that we through our capital allocation process we have really cored up into the sweet spots of these areas that we work in, we’re really doing more development type work and less appraisal work. We have spent a fair amount of money on science and some of these appraisal areas such as the Lavaca County and also in the Delaware all that will come to will pay-off dividend here probably in the second half of this year. So I think the 10% that you described is probably well within reach then.
David Heikkinen:
And so as we think going in the ’16 just kind of modeling in the increase in wells at this rig count before you even think about ramping rig count is reasonable that is cool. The other question I just want to make sure I was understanding what you said on the LOE front that you haven’t factored any cost savings and not putting words in your mouth but again kind of the same 10% CapEx reduction that you built in I don’t see a reason why some of your maintenance and kind of base LOE couldn’t come down at fair amount as we go into ’16 is that a reasonable framework?
Tony Vaughn:
You know what David we have put some challenge to our business units cost contentment is going to be a real driving force inside each of our business unit teams. I think the ability to reduce LOE is there I think a larger percent of that cost component is associated with labor which is a little bit stickier than some of the other things that we’ve talked about today. I do think we still have the ability to shave off some LOE and it will be a little bit better than what we have forecast but you have to remember we’re seeing projects like the Barnett which is accreted to the company LOE is starting to decline replacing that with some higher cost barrels in places like the Delaware. So we’re working that, got a lot of focus on that as we just described.
David Heikkinen:
And just one last one, and I’m assuming you don’t want to give an expectation for an exit rate for production at this point, for ’15?
Tony Vaughn:
David I don’t think we’re not focused really on the, or giving an exit rate. But suffice to say our production stays pretty strong through the year. We have a pretty good bump in the first quarter and then it holds pretty steady after that throughout the year. And we put ourselves into really a great position with the ton of flexibility as we move into ’16 which I think is really the important part as well.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Arun Jayaram with Credit Suisse. Your line is open.
Arun Jayaram:
I wanted to first ask few questions on the Eagle Ford and perhaps maybe try to understand to what level kind of the new completion design is driving the improve results. I was wondering if you had any data on perhaps wells that are located in the same area, and what you’re seeing in terms of the new completion design versus the old one?
David Hager:
Well Tony, can give a little more specific here but in general the wells that you saw are in the fourth quarter were the results of a revised design that we worked with BHP on I generally characterize as probably somewhere around 80% of where we’d have liked to go with the completion design. Now we added for a period of time during the fourth quarter two completion crews that Devon operated by themselves and pumped a number of jobs those wells are just now starting to come online. So we’re not sure if you are going to see the other incremental improvement or not but we’ll see and we’ll probably have the results for that in the first quarter. But the type curve improvement that you’re seeing I think is in that wells that are in like type areas and that’s the result of that, I don’t know if Tony wants to add any more detail around that.
Tony Vaughn:
Yes, I think that’s right Dave, BHP has got a good design I think they’ve actually been changing that over the course of the last 9-10 months which is approaching a summer design to Devon and we pump a little bit more sand we pump more fluid they have a little bit different philosophy there but I think their completions are moving up. It will be interesting to see if the design that we pumped on the 28 wells that we worked on in DeWitt County have any incremental benefit in that. But I think overall we’re starting to see good collaboration between the two companies trying to take the best from both. I also mentioned to you that some of the science that we’re doing especially in Lavaca County is very unique. We have run fiber optics we drilled vertical well there taking 240 feet of core, doing a lot of micro seismic work, trying to have a really good understanding of what delivers value on the completions in the Eagle Ford. So I think that will continue to improve. We’re also seeing a lot of benefits from our production optimization work that I think we’ve talked about in the past and there are guys they have taken a really I think a really aliquant approach to managing their bottom out pressures and rate. We’re seeing the type curves move up and exceeding performance on that. We’re waiting to see if there will be a corresponding improvement in the expected ultimate recovery per well. I think that could come but we need little bit more data to understand that better.
Arun Jayaram:
And my follow up question is just regarding future potential dropdowns to EnLink I guess you guys highlighted in the ops report about expecting to do the Victoria Express Pipeline some time in 2015. I was wondering if you can maybe give some more details around that. And secondly regarding Access how big of a factor would be in terms of that ultimate valuation would the FID be on Pike in terms of future volumes?
Tony Vaughn:
Yes Arun, what we talked about with the Victoria Express is potentially dropping that down some time in the first half of the year guys on both our folks here and on the EnLink team are working on that and what that would look like and what the valuation would be and we can’t give you a whole lot more color around that right now. As we move into Access we’re working a lot on that. There are some complexities with it because it’s in Canada and it’s a large asset it will certainly our pace of development of Pike later on in the year will certainly have some bearing on that valuation. So as we get to the time of the year when we’re revisiting that making that decision that will come into play. But we always talked about the dropdown on Access probably being late in 2015 or maybe even moving over to the beginning of ’16.
Arun Jayaram:
Okay, so it sounds like in the next year or so?
Tony Vaughn:
Yes sir and I think that’s what we’re looking at right now but there is a lot of moving parts right now so we will have to see whether it works out that way that’s the current or that’s currently what we’re moving towards now whether we get all of that work done and whether it all pans out exactly the way we think will remain to be seen. But what we’ve always talked about is potentially doing it in the latter half of this year or early in ’16.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of John Herrlin with Société Générale. Your line is open.
John Herrlin:
Two quick ones in the U.S. you had a negative 38 million barrel revision for oil that wasn’t related to price, John earlier you talked about the revisions being related to the five year rule is that the case for the oil in the U.S.?
John Richels:
Tony can answer that on -- sorry John that was largely, the five year rule was largely related to gas.
John Herrlin:
Okay, I figured that.
Tony Vaughn:
On the oil side we saw a little bit underperformance in our expectations in the Mississippian so we wrote down some per well performance there and also in the Southern Midland Basin we had to write down a little bit of reserves associated with that. And mostly as John had mentioned these were mostly gas write offs and associated with the five year rule.
John Herrlin:
EnLink bought the Coronado system in the Midland Basin Darryl how are you configured for the Delaware side in terms of GTP do you have adequate infrastructure at this stage?
Darryl Smette:
John look just to kind of paint the background here and I think we’ve mentioned this before but a lot of acreage Devon has in the Permian Basin is acreage that we have acquired overtime. The vast majority of that acreage is currently dedicated to other parties. And so we have very little acreage that’s available to go into any of the EnLink facilities out there although the acreage that is available in the facilities are closed that is certainly a party that we talk to all the time. In terms of the facilities that are third-party facilities we have issues every now and then closer to well head we have to put in the different types of facilities that kinds of ebbs and flows and it depends on the performance of the wells generally. So when we are seeing some really-really good results from some of the wells and they come on stream which has happened more recently. There is a period of time when we have to have the facilities that catch up our third-party providers have done a very good job of doing that for us. We have a team of Devon what we call facility and pipeline people who are busy installing the facilities that we need to get to the third-party people. So right now we feel pretty good about where we’re at. We have a few bottlenecks we have some wells that are offline waiting for some pipeline and some other facilities to be installed. Most of that will be up and operational by the end of the second quarter, but we have made pretty good progress and for the most part are staying ahead of the curve. But there are some isolated incidents where we have a two or three month wait to make sure all of our production moves.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Kapil Singh with DoubleLine Capital. Your line is open.
Kapil Singh:
Just a quick question on leverage, where do you see that going what are your sort of targets over the next kind of 12 months? And then related to that your ratings as well. And what is sort of the plan to achieve whatever those targets are?
Tom Mitchell:
Yes this is Tom. We’re pretty solid in our ratings we just have visited with the rating agencies in the last few week. So they’re comfortable with where we are, they’re comfortable with the capital plan. As far as movement in leverage it should be pretty much where you’re seeing it. We are relatively neutral on a cash flow spend in the plan and what we have presented before them. So it’s really one of the sweet spots for the company right now. We are very strong in this area and with the agencies.
Kapil Singh:
But is leverage going to stay consistent as earnings for our EBITDA drops but that I think is same right you’re not planning to pay down debt or is that wrong?
Tom Mitchell:
There is no particular debt pay down, and as you get into ’16 and ’17 I’m not really projecting out into that timeframe right now but for the near-term year and a half it is stable.
Operator:
You have a follow-up question from the line of James Sullivan with Alembic Global. Your line is open.
James Sullivan:
Just a quick clarification, you guys have 13 Second Bone Spring wells that you talked about both in the ops reports of Q3 and Q4 that had a very good third year rates about 900 Boes, all 26 of those were done with a heavier sand loadings, is that right?
David Hager:
That’s correct.
James Sullivan:
Just want to check that out, so that’s a pretty significant corpus of data there.
David Hager:
And we are testing bigger sand rates beyond that James just to give you an idea we will have results for that in the future.
James Sullivan:
The other thing I had was you guys had a little bit of commentary in the ops report about the possibility of the EUR estimates going up if you guys could provide the type curves but generally done with increasing the IP rates, 30 day rates and I guess that could be interpreted as hedging your bets on whether you’re accelerating resource or adding it per well. Is it fair to say that you guys are seeing something with the longer data series that you’re seeing data that would suggest you that you are capturing new resource with the new completions?
David Hager:
We’re very confident in the Bone Spring that we’re going to increase the EURs. We’re just trying to figure out what the number is and get a little more production history before we do that. And Eagle Ford Tony talked about it’s always less certain it’s earlier on we think there is a possibility when we may bring up the EUR there as well but there is less certainty there than the Bone Spring.
Operator:
There are no further questions at this time. I’ll turn the call back over to Mr. Thill for closing remarks.
Howard Thill:
Thank you, Courtney and we appreciate all of the questions. We appreciate all the interest in Devon and look forward seeing you on the road in the near future. If you have anything else that comes to mind don’t hesitate to contact us in the interim. Thanks much. Have a great day.
Operator:
This concludes today’s conference call. You may now disconnect.
Executives:
Howard Thill - Senior Vice President, Communications and Investor Relations John Richels - President and CEO David Hager - Chief Operating Officer Darryl Smette - Executive Vice President, Marketing, Facilities, Pipeline and Supply Chain Tony Vaughn - Executive Vice President, Exploration and Production
Analysts:
Doug Leggate - Bank of America Merrill Lynch Scott Hanold - RBC Capital Markets Charles Meade - Johnson Rice & Company Arun Jayaram - Credit Suisse David Heikkinen - Heikkinen Energy Advisors Paul Sankey - Wolfe Research Brian Singer - Goldman Sachs John Herrlin - Société Générale Jeffrey Campbell - Tuohy Brother Investment Research Biju Perincheril - Susquehanna International Group Phillips Johnston - Capital One Securities
Operator:
Welcome to Devon Energy’s Third Quarter 2014 Earnings Conference Call. At this time all participants are in a listen-only mode. This call is being recorded. At this time, I’d like to turn the call over to Mr. Howard Thill, Senior Vice President of Communications and Investor Relations. Sir, you may begin.
Howard Thill:
Thank you, Connor, and good morning. I too would like to welcome everyone to Devon’s third quarter analyst and investor call. I am Howard Thill, Senior Vice President of Corporate Communications and Investor Relations for Devon Energy. Also on the call today are John Richels, President and Chief Executive Officer; Dave Hager, Chief Operating Officer; and Tom Mitchell, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Additionally we have a number of other Devon executives in the room with us. If you haven’t had a chance to listen to the management commentary, you can find that along with the associated slides and our new operations report at devonenergy.com. Additionally, starting with this quarter’s results, we have included our forward-looking guidance in the earnings release. I hope you've had a chance to review those documents as today’s call will largely consist of questions and answers. Finally, I’d remind you that comments and answers to questions on this call may contain plans, forecasts, expectations and estimates which are forward-looking statements under U.S. securities law. Our comments and answers are subject to a number of assumptions, risks and uncertainty that could cause our results to materially differ from these forward-looking statements. These statements are not guarantees of future performance. Additionally, information on risk factors that could cause results to materially differ from the forward-looking statements made today is available in our 2013 Form 10-K and subsequent 10-Qs included under the caption Risk Factors. With that, I’ll turn the call over to our President and CEO, John Richels.
John Richels:
Well, thank you, Howard and good morning, everyone. As you all have seen, Devon delivered exceptional performance during the third quarter. We achieved record oil production which exceeded the high end of our guidance by 6,000 barrels a day. With that strong execution, we increased our 2014 production outlook -- our growth outlook by about 300 basis points from 11% previously to 14%. And very importantly, that increase came with no change in our 2014 capital spending profile. We also increased our profitability with pretax cash margins expanding by 20% year-over-year and exceeded Wall Street’s earnings expectations by $0.10. And lastly, we completed the final leg of our strategic repositioning with the closing of our U.S. non-core asset sales. So overall, it was an excellent performance for Devon and we expect a strong operational momentum that we delivered to continue into 2015. While we’re closely watching developments in the commodity markets, we’re extremely well positioned to fund our 2015 capital program. We’ve got one of the strongest balance sheets in the sector, we’re very well hedged and we have visible opportunities for continued drop downs to our midstream business. This places us in a position to continue to invest in our portfolio of high rate of return projects in many of the best U.S. resource plays. So with that, as Howard said, today’s call was going to be a Q&A call basically. And I'd just like to actually congratulate Howard and his team for the change and I hope that you all found it helpful. But we've tried to put out the very best information that we could. So with that, I’ll turn it over to Howard for Q&A.
Howard Thill:
Thanks, John. And before we get started, I’d just like to remind everyone to please limit yourself to one question with an associated follow up so that we can get as many people on the call as possible. And you can re-queue for additional questions as time permits. And so, Connor, with that, we’re ready for the first question.
Operator:
(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from the line of Doug Leggate with Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Your line is open.
Doug Leggate - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
So, I wonder if I could take a couple. First of all, you’ve still not taken any steps to increase your inventory in the Delaware Basin. I realize you’ve taken type curves up so on, but just kind of curious as to what is it going to take for us to see the greater confidence level as you de-risk that play? And I’ve got a follow-up.
Dave Hager:
This is Dave Hager. We are doing downspacing pilots in the first half of 2015. When we see the results of those downspacing pilots in the second Bone Spring, we anticipate that our inventory will increase. If you obviously look at our presentation and our investor book, it shows that we’re currently just using four or five wells per section. And so we think there is upside particularly in the second Bone Spring to this and we’ll test it with these downspacing pilots. I'll remind you also that in our 5,000 locations, we haven’t counted anything for the Wolfcamp. We think that’s going to work and we think it's going to work well, but we think the economics are stronger in the second Bone Spring. So, we’re going to concentrate our evaluation there initially and then let the industry do some of the de-risking in the Wolfcamp and the Leonard Shale.
Doug Leggate - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
I guess, Dave, I should have been more specific. I think I really was just talking more to the Wolfcamp than the Bone Spring, because that's the area that's still TBA. And after the numbers that we saw from you this morning, it would seem that they were starting to kind of suggest in a very similar area to yourselves that they have got a lot -- a much greater confidence. I am just wondering what is it going to take for you guys to get to the same point?
Dave Hager:
Well, we are drilling -- actually we drilled our first Wolfcamp Shale well in Loving County just on the Texas side. We’re currently flowing back that well as we speak, so we'll have results for that. And in next quarter's call we’ll be analyzing all of the industry data and be providing numbers. Again, we have the acreage. It's not a question where do we have the acreage, it's just the matter of us analyzing the industry results and then providing you guidance around that based on the industry results. So, we’re very confident it's going to work and so our overall inventory is going to go up. It's just that we want to see a little more results. And again, we think the economics are a little bit stronger in the second Bone Spring. We have more of the second Bone Spring than some of our industry peers just given where our acreage is actually located. But the second Bone Spring is a little bit shallower, it's a little less expensive to drill and it's a little more oily. And so all of that cause the economics in the second Bone Spring to be a little better, but that’s not to say it's not a good strong opportunity in the Wolfcamp and we’re glad EOG is having success. It just makes our acreage look that much better.
Doug Leggate - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
My follow-up, if I may, Dave, is kind of related. And I guess before I get into this, I should say that the new disclosure and the conference call before and everything else is really terrific. So thank you for making our lives easier. But my question really is more about the increase in the type curve in the Bone Spring. So, the IP rates obviously have been up significantly, but the type, the actual EUR did not appear to move. I think you put a plus on it as opposed to changing the numbers. So I am just wondering if you could, if I am missing something there or if you could help us understand what your realized aspirations are as you look at that?
Dave Hager:
We probably could have put a plus, plus, plus on that, to be honest with you, Doug, because we feel very good about that as we get additional data and we get more production data on these wells that the EURs will increase. We just want to see more production history before we say exactly what the new EURs will be. But I can tell you so far what we’re seeing is these wells are coming on at significantly higher rates and they are essentially paralleling the old type curve. They are not falling off more rapidly. So there is -- we feel very confident that the EURs are going to increase. We just want to get more data on these wells before we actually come out with what the increase will be.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Scott Hanold with RBC. Your line is open.
Scott Hanold – RBC Capital Markets:
Maybe to stick with the Northern Delaware Basin for now, just a little bit more color on some of those downspacing pilots. Obviously four to five wells, you seem pretty confident and you're going to eight. Can you just give us a little bit of color what you're looking for there? Is it just maximizing recovery and should we expect because those reservoirs drain pretty well, is it going to communicate a little bit or do you think that those eight wells could be fairly independent?
Dave Hager:
Well, obviously that’s what we need to find out with these downspacing pilots. But what we’re looking for is do we have good economic opportunities with these downspacing pilots and so do they generate returns that are competitive within our portfolio that we would want to drill these downspace wells. We think that particularly the most opportunity does set in the second Bone Spring for this downspacing opportunity and that’s what again, as I have highlighted already that those are the best economics in the Northern Delaware Basin anyway. So if we have down spacing opportunities, our belief is that they will compete very well within our portfolio. But that’s what we’re really looking to see is just what kind of -- obviously there may be a little bit of degradation of performance, we don’t know. But with these larger fracs that we have – again, the whole idea is to create more complex fracture networks immediately around the wellbore, but not to have them reach out as far so you that can create these downspacing opportunities where you can do the same thing on a downspacing basis and have very strong returns. That’s the theory of where we’re going. We think it’s going to work. We just want to see the proof with the actual pilots.
Scott Hanold – RBC Capital Markets:
Okay. And is your acreage such that you could do a lot of this in pad development? Are you blocking up where this could be a pretty good thing where -- I don’t know what the right number is, but what do you envision wellbore...?
Dave Hager:
Well, we’re doing a lot of the pad development already and we can continue to do a lot of this with pad development. Now, the specifics of how we would develop the downspace pads, I mean I have to defer. We may have to just build additional pads and take them into incremental facilities on the same acreage there. I think that’s our plan right now. But frankly, we need to get a handle early on how much -- there is not only downspacing opportunities in the second Bone Spring, but if you go back to our investor presentation, we have slides there that we have showed that also on some of these areas we have Delaware sand potential, we have Leonard sand potential and we have Wolfcamp, not all of them on all of the same acreage. But we have some areas where multiple formations are prospected. We actually have even additional zones within the second Bone Spring that we’re not sure that we’re fully exploiting at this point either, an upper sand in the second Bone Spring, we’re testing that as well. So, there is not only downspacing opportunities, but there are stacked lateral opportunities in the Delaware Basin that again could significantly increase our inventory. And we need to get a handle for how many wells per section that might be ultimately and so we’re doing some pilot testing around that. But the four or five wells per section, when you look at our stack basis, may be significantly higher than that.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Charles Meade with Johnson Rice. Your line is open.
Charles Meade - Johnson Rice & Company:
A lot of good stuff you guys have this quarter. But if I could just go back to the earlier question on the Bone Spring. I wonder if you can add a little bit to the narrative of you’ve changed your completion design and how much maybe that -- whether those, I believe it was about 13 new wells in the quarter that led to this updated type curve, whether those were using that 1,500, 2,500 pounds per lateral foot that you reference in your new completion design or whether those were before this recent [Multiple Speakers]?
Dave Hager:
Our old completion design was really around 600 pounds per linear foot. We are now testing, as we said, up to 2,500 pounds of sand per linear foot. So far we have pumped between 25 and 30 jobs in the 1,500 to 2,500 pounds per linear foot range. Of those, we have actual well results on about half of those. Now, some of those have just not been on very long at all. And so we’re still monitoring others we have 30 days plus. But the bulk of the well results you’re seeing in Q3 do not have the larger, thus far from a production standpoint, actual production, do not have the larger jobs in there. And that’s why one reason we have confidence our volumes can continue to grow in the future. Now, what is the actual sand size is in our type curve. I can tell you it’s not -- it’s less than 1,500 pounds of sand per linear foot. And so we think that if these jobs work on a consistent basis, there is additional upside to our type curve in future quarters. But we need to see those results first and see that on more wells to really be able to say exactly how much that would be.
Charles Meade - Johnson Rice & Company:
Dave, that was an excellent answer. You actually saved me from having to ask a follow up because I was going to ask you about what the future holds up. Let me, if I could, go in a slightly different direction for my follow up, a lot of which you talks about in the Eagle Ford. Or one of the things you talk about in Eagle Ford was the optimization of choke management once you put those wells on production. That makes sense with you guys being -- you’re taking new operatorship at that point. But is there a chance for a similar sort of completion optimization in putting up higher sand loading on those Eagle Ford completions as well?
Dave Hager:
We’re working with our partner BHP on that right now. Absolutely, we think there is -- we’re working with a revision of a completion design on that. We're not prepared to go into a lot of detail as we speak right now. But we can tell you that there is -- we think there is upside associated with that when we get more results with our revised completion site. We’ve already made modifications to it, but we’d like to see more results before we actually go out with anything. I'll also mention here, Tommy here mentioned another good thing to mention. We have done the larger revised completion design in Lavaca County where we actually operate and you’re seeing the IPs on those. The other thing I might mention on this choke management is that we have so far most of the choke management work we’ve done, we’re doing on a very engineered basis, that has been done primarily on older existing wells that have already had significant decline. The real upside here which we’re not seeing yet in the production numbers and which are upside to the type curve also is when we start applying this very engineered approach to new wells, to new completions and so that’s upside that we have not yet quantified for you but we think exists with the inventory. And we’re starting to roll that in to -- again on a managed basis, managing well pressures to make sure we’re maximizing rates of return and we’re not degrading performance. But we’re starting to do this on an engineered approach with new wells. And so there's still big upside potential if it works as well as we think it will on new wells.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Arun Jayaram with Credit Suisse. Your line is open.
Arun Jayaram - Credit Suisse:
I wanted to see if you could maybe elaborate a little bit on some of the commentary around 2015, E&P capital being at similar levels to '14. And just wanted to see if you could give us a little bit of color, because you are accelerating in Cana, you a full year of Eagle Ford spend in '15 versus '14 and you are accelerating come completion activity and you’re ramping in the Delaware as well. So just wanted to see if you can give us some comfort level with next year’s CapEx.
John Richels:
Arun, as you know, we’re still pouring next year’s budget. I mean we’re just working on it now and we’ll be coming out with it over the next little while. You’re right, we’re changing the number of rigs that we have working in some of the areas and all the things you point out are correct. But part of what we’re doing is just shifting our focus to the highest rate of return areas. So for example, we expect next year that the number of rigs that we have working in the Miss will probably go down and some areas in the southern Midland basin may go down and we’ll shift those rigs over to some of these other areas. So we feel pretty confident at this time that the kind of growth that we’ve talked about, the 20% to 25% oil growth in 2015 is achievable in a budget that is similar to what we had in 2014, which I think is a really positive development for us.
Arun Jayaram - Credit Suisse:
And perhaps another factor, just perhaps reduced spending at Jackfish on a year-over-year basis?
John Richels:
Well, that as well. Certainly we have less spending at Jackfish. As we mentioned, we’re going to do some appraisal work and some additional engineering work on Pike, be probably $250 million. But with the completion of Jackfish 3 and relatively low maintenance capital on that whole Jackfish complex, we’ll see our expenditures come down there as well.
Dave Hager:
Arun, this is Dave. A reminder too, what I have been talking about with these previous answers I have been giving, we’re getting a lot more efficient and so we don’t have to add as much capital, because we’re getting much higher IPs and we think we’re getting higher EURs in a number of these plays. And so it’s not all about adding rigs. We add rigs when we need to. But if we can get it rather out of better completions and much more efficient way with higher rates of return, that’s a better way to go and we think we’re accomplishing that in a number of our plays.
Arun Jayaram - Credit Suisse:
So just in summary, so the efficiency gains that you’re seeing are going to offset maybe higher activity levels, plus the impact of some of the carriers wearing off, is that fair?
John Richels:
Right. That’s certainly part of it.
Dave Hager:
We have not seen it going up. Again, we stand by what we said on the capital though, it's going to be very similar to -- we can have these kind of growth rates with very similar capital as we had in 2014 and those were the reasons why.
Arun Jayaram - Credit Suisse:
And my follow-up question is just regarding EnLink. Just wanted to see, John, if you could articulate maybe your thoughts and ways to maximize value from this strategic partnership with EnLink. And perhaps you could just remind us how this now improves Devon’s overall capital efficiency and some of the cash flows you get on a recurring basis from dividends.
John Richels:
Well, you hit on a couple of important points. Over the past several years we’ve had a fair amount of capital that we've put into our midstream operations. And with the transfer of assets to EnLink, that obligation or that responsibility for that expenditure goes to EnLink. So that just leaves more of our cash flow available for our development projects, which is a good thing. We also had -- given that EnLink has very stable fixed contracts for the most part, we have a fairly reliable cash flow stream that comes to us from EnLink. And as we look at the future, we’ve got a great asset there. The day we transfer our assets into the new entity that formed EnLink, it had a market value of about $4.8 billion today. It's somewhere up around $9 billion. And as I said earlier, we have a very visible growth profile as we continue to develop the assets that our management team at EnLink have brought to the table. They're got a lot of organic growth opportunities. But we have continuing drop downs both from the general partner to the limited partner and from possibility of facilities drop downs from Devon to EnLink. So all of those things point towards more efficiency on our part, more capital efficiency on Devon’s part because of the increased cash flow that's going into our development projects and an increasing valuation for EnLink over the next while. So, all-in-all a real positive development for us.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of David Heikkinen with Heikkinen Research. Your line is open.
David Heikkinen - Heikkinen Energy Advisors:
One question as I think about Pike and the $250 million of the spend next year, how does that fit into any partnership sell down or joint venture thoughts between now and kind of fourth quarter '15 when you remake your Board consideration?
John Richels:
Well, as you know, David, on Pike, we’ve got, we’re a 50% owner of Pike and are non-operative partners with BP with a 50% interest as well. So, this work that we’re doing is very necessary work in order for us to really understand the project and know what the capital costs are going to be and to fully delineate the area with the additional stratigraphic test flow. So, this is work that’s absolutely necessary for us to do and it doesn’t really change anything that we might do going forward. I think we’ll get this work done over the year and then take it back to our Board for consideration in late in 2015. And then we have the full impact on -- it really has no impact on exactly how Pike rolls out overtime, because this is work that -- this is a great looking project in what looks to be the sweet spot of the oil sands for SAGD developments. So it's something that we absolutely need to get our arms around and then we’ll take that to our Board for consideration probably late in '15.
David Heikkinen - Heikkinen Energy Advisors:
And then in the Eagle Ford, I thought your comments and you highlighted in, again reiterating Doug’s comments, the operation report is really helpful and kind of bold and italicized, kind of stands out. So the potential for new type curve improvements in new wells around optimized production practices relative to your quarter-over-quarter growth rates and your 100,000 barrel a day at least target in '15. How should we think about a sustained growth rate in the Eagle Ford with kind of new type curves, improvements and it just seems like your quarter-over-quarter growth rates accelerate given the pull down of backlog for the next couple of quarters? Is that a fair assumption to think you're accelerating growth in the fourth quarter and first quarter?
John Richels:
Yes, I think just probably a pretty fair assumption, Dave. We’re really pleased with the way the things are working out and we do see with these new completions that we’re working on right now as well as our production optimization activities that we’re doing, we see that things are continuing to improve, I would say. So, we haven’t come out with an affinity guidance regarding 2015, so I am being careful not to say too much. But I can tell you things are on the positive rather than on the neutral or negative and so we feel really good about it.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Paul Sankey with Wolfe Research. Your line is open.
Paul Sankey - Wolfe Research:
Again, thanks very much for the additional disclosure, we always greatly appreciate that. A very high level strategy question. Hearing you talk and describe the way things are going, it sounds like the move in oil prices really hasn’t changed anything. Is there anything that has changed in your view of future strategy as a result of the $25 drop in the barrel oil prices?
Unidentified Company Representative:
First of all, when we’re implementing our strategy, as you know, we’re looking at longer-term prices, not with the spot prices today. And frankly, the longer-term prices haven’t changed that much from where they were when we developed the strategy and when we made the moves to so significantly transform our portfolio. So, we put ourselves in the position today of having an asset base that has very good rates of return that can generate high margins where we can have robust growth and that has a lot of flexibility for the future in terms of oil or liquids rich gas. So, it really -- the spot price, the change in the spot price hasn’t really affected our view of what we might do. And as we get into 2015, I think the very strong position that we are in is – we've got one of the strongest balance sheets in the sector, we’re very well hedged already for 2015. We've got over 50% of our productions hedged at a oil price of $91 a barrel. So, we’ve got a lot of price protection from that point of view. And with the additional financial levers that we have with the drop downs that we’re talking about and other, we've put ourselves into a very, very good position even if prices stay a little bit soft in the near term. But as you can appreciate, as we get into 2015 and we start executing that '15 program, we’re really more interested in what oil prices are towards the end of '15 and '16 and '17, because that’s when that production comes on and when you really drive the returns on the additional work that we’ve done. So, we feel very good about the strategy. We feel very good about the portfolio and the opportunity set that we've created for the next several years.
Paul Sankey - Wolfe Research:
On gas markets, could you just update us on what you see out there on natural gas as we head into winter?
Darryl Smette:
This is Darryl. And obviously, we had -- we started out 2014 with a very severe winter weather, drove gas prices up. As we went through December, we’ve seen additional production come on stream which was anticipated probably a little bit more than we originally thought especially out of the Utica and the Marcellus and then a very mild summer compared to the last couple that we’ve had. But as we go into 2015, while we do see a continued increase in supply, we also are starting to see some increase in demand, we think. Most of that will come in the second half of the year and into 2016 with some additional capacity coming on with petrochemical plants, electric generation, more exports to Mexico. So we’re still fairly comfortable that over the longer term we’re going to see prices that range between $3.50 and $5. And as we look right now, there is probably going to be a $3.75 to $4.25 price for 2015. So we’re pretty comfortable with those numbers. Those are numbers that we’ve used in all of our economic evaluations for the last two or three years. So, just as John said on the oil side, there has really been no surprise to us in terms of what gas prices have been and how we’ve modeled the projects we’ve had before us.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Brian Singer with Goldman Sachs. Your line is open.
Brian Singer - Goldman Sachs:
We definitely appreciate the ops reports, thanks so much for that. Can you talk to your needs for infrastructure investment, particularly in the Eagle Ford and the Permian over the next couple of years? And how that level of investments defers, if at all, from what is being made in 2014?
John Richels:
Let’s let Darryl answer that question. He is the expert on it.
Darryl Smette:
Brian, and when you’re talking about infrastructure, I assume you’re talking about what I’ll call marketing or midstream infrastructure. Is that correct?
Brian Singer - Goldman Sachs:
Actually, let me be clear, because that’s a good point. I was thinking more to support your E&P growth. So processing to support directly support your production growth plans, any sand expansions or logistics expansion, water, et cetera, as opposed to what would be done by the midstream subsidiary for third parties.
Darryl Smette:
Well, I’ll let Dave talk about water. But just in terms of, let’s take the Eagle Ford first. Our acreage, except for the Lavaca County, both on the gas side and the oil gathering side, is dedicated under a long-term contracts with third party midstream companies. Under those contracts, they have obligations to increase capacity as we increase production in both cases. We so far have been them perform, although we did have some gathering issues on the liquids side. Once we acquired from GeoSouthern, they worked very diligently to correct those issues and each day that gets better. So we expect in terms of takeaway both on the oil and the gas and the liquids side in the Eagle Ford that that won’t really be an issue for us. Turning to the Permian, we’re in a lot of different areas. But what we have here is a little bit of a similar story and that a lot of our acreage that we have here has previously been committed to third parties. Now there are some opportunities in some areas for us to do independent work. But for the most part our acreage is dedicated to third parties. And we’ve worked with them consistently over the last two or three years to make sure that we have facilities in place when we develop our wells. Now, we do not anticipate through at least 2015 and into 2016, we do not think there is going to be any takeaway capacity problems either on the gas side or the oil side or any processing issues. Now that could change if we get much better results than we anticipate. But right now, we feel pretty comfortable where we are there. We do have some issues on some Devon facilities, gathering facilities, where we undersized those facilities based on the success we’ve had. And so we’re now in the process of going back to those facilities and increasing capacity on those and that process is ongoing. We think most of that’s going to be completed by the end of the first quarter, maybe into the second quarter of 2015. But we feel pretty comfortable where we are from a midstream type perspective in both of those areas.
Dave Hager:
Brian, I might just -- this is Dave -- I might just talk briefly about from the sand and the water standpoint. Before I do, I might just make a more global comment here that we have put a real emphasis internally in the company on what we call project management, which really is to make sure that we’re doing good long-term planning addressing all the issues that you’re describing. And so that’s a real focus within the company. We’re not just out there drilling wells, we’re looking down the road two, three, four, five years and making sure we’re addressing all those issues that you’re bringing up. Regarding the sands side of the business, we think that we’re -- I am not going to say it’s not tight, it has been tight. But at the same time we think that we have the ability through our relationships with the service companies to get the sands there for the wells. The tightest have been in the Permian Basin obviously and historically the most difficult part is what we call the last mile, which is really the trucking to the location. Now that has been somewhat improved here in the past couple of months or so. But overall, we think it’s going to be tight. But we think that given the strength of the company and the strength of our relationship with our service providers and the bigger service providers particularly that we use the most, we can handle that. On the water side, we do not see any significant issue there at all. We’re bringing in water actually from outside from the north into the -- near our activities located in the Delaware Basin. We don’t see any significant issue and we’ve been planning for that. So we’re in good shape.
Brian Singer - Goldman Sachs:
And my follow-up is actually a follow-up to David Heikkinen's question earlier with regard to the Eagle Ford and the potential for type curve improvements next year. Can you just add some color on what you’re thinking about spacing in DeWitt County? And whether there is the simultaneous potential for downspacing and a type curve improvement whether the spacing is set and so it would just be a type curve improvement or one of the other?
Dave Hager:
Well we’re drilling on average at about 50 to 60 acre spacing. Now that is composed of 40 acre spacing in the more oily parts of the play and then 80 acre spacing where it gets a little bit more gassy towards the southern end of our acreage position. On an average, it’s around the 50 to 60 acre spacing currently. Now, do I, in theory, see some potential upside for the same type thing we’re talking about in the Delaware basin where we could with these more advanced and more complex fracs that we’re not reaching out as far? Do I see some downspacing potential in theory? I think it may exist. But frankly, we’re less -- let me put it this way. We’re less mature in our discussion process with our partner regarding that potential right now than we are in other initiatives. And so, first thing we do is get these better completion designs working real efficiently. I think we do, then we may be able to make some progress on downspacing also.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of John Herrlin with Société Générale. Your line is open.
John Herrlin - Société Générale:
Dave, with respect to the shale wells with greater frac completion intensity, are you just waiting for time to recognize the improvements, are you doing any science, any monitoring, micro-seismic or traces or anything?
John Richels:
We’re doing quite a bit. I’ll tell you what, I am going to turn the call over to our Head of E&P, Tony Vaughn, who can give you an even more detailed response to this, John. He’s really close to this, so I'll let him talk you about it a little bit.
Tony Vaughn:
John, I think you lead into a good conversation. In general, we’re being much more bullish in acquiring a lot more data than we had in the past. And I think some of the things that have differentiated Devon from some of our other companies that we compete against are just that. And so we’re taking cores, pressures, temperatures, we’re using fiber optics in a lot of our wells around the company. We also have a well [conn] 24 hours, seven day a week, 365 center that really monitors all of our execution activities very closely. So the attention to detail is much higher. We’ve stood up a lot of our integrated reservoir optimization teams to take this data, incorporate more technical work into it. It's really providing a lot more abilities for us to model both the reservoir, model the frac design work that we do. So yes, the long answer is yes, we’re taking a lot more information, we’re monitoring the data, we’re micro-seismic and in some cases through fiber optics. It’s really causing us to see the real specifics about where our injected volumes are going, what’s really providing benefit and what is not. So actually I think some of the questions that have started to call out was more -- and I think Dave hit on it very well -- was more about optimization and that’s exactly where we’re at. So we’re seeing prove rates, recoveries and returns on almost all of our area and I think Cana was a great standalone example of taking a project that really wasn't competing in our portfolio from a commercial standpoint and through much more improved debt acquisition and technical work has turned it into a project that we are anticipating funding in a much more aggressive fashion in '15.
John Herrlin - Société Générale:
My next one is for John. With the free cash flow from Jackfish, obviously you could fund Pike. But in the event that that’s not going to be a project that’s ramping up immediately, would you repatriate $1 billion a year to the U.S.?
John Richels:
Well, we sure want to try to do it, John, in the most capital or a tax-efficient manner that we could. And frankly, I will point out to you, even if we go ahead and fund Pike, we’re still going to have a bunch of free cash flow in Canada, because it's not taking out the Pike project, if they were to go ahead, it wouldn’t take up $1 billion of your EBIT. So, we’re going to have some free cash flow and my guess is that we will bring that back. We’ll try to do it as tax efficiently as we can and deploy that here in the U.S. We haven’t -- in the past, we've sometimes left those funds offshore or in Canada because we have not had to change or alter our capital spending plans as a result of where cash is. I mean, we've got enough balance sheet flexibility, as you know, and enough liquidity that we're not constraining our capital decisions in the U.S. by where the cash is. So, that all points to trying to bring that cash back in the most tax-efficient way and not hurting it back because it's really not going to change our behavior in any event as long as we have the financial strength and liquidity that we have.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Jeffrey Campbell with Tuohy Brother Investment Research. Your line is open.
Jeffrey Campbell - Tuohy Brother Investment Research:
I’d like to add to the commentary on the ops report, which I’ve already told Howard, which I think is very good. But I also want to thank you for this expanded Q&A. My first question is on the Delaware Bone Spring. Can you talk a little bit about how much the enhanced completion method is increasing the per well completion costs on average versus the previous completion methods? And can you provide any color on the return uplift that you alluded to in the ops report from these larger completions?
Unidentified Company Representative:
The incremental cost is around $1 million, give or take, for the larger fracs. Obviously it depends on whether it's 1,500 pounds of sand or 2,500 pounds of sand, but it's per linear foot. But that’s a good estimate for what it is. So far, and again we haven’t come out with the potential higher EURs, I can tell you that based on the very preliminary data that we’ve seen that the enhancements in the rate of return are somewhere between significant and staggering. And they are outstanding and certainly justify the incremental $1 million cost. And so we just want to get a little bit more confidence in that before we roll out all those numbers.
Jeffrey Campbell - Tuohy Brother Investment Research:
The other question I want to ask was with regard to the Eagle Ford. Could you provide some color on how you built such a large inventory through the third quarter '14 that you alluded to in the report? And going forward, what is the sort of inventory number you prefer to see?
Unidentified Company Representative:
Well, it just has to do -- the inventory that has built up, it just has to do with the fact that we obviously -- and this part of the business again managed through BHP historically, but they just have been drilling wells and they haven’t had enough completion crews to quite keep up with the number of wells that they've drilled. Now that is why we have agreed to increase the number of frac crews and actually they have agreed to have Devon operate two of those frac crews. So, we were increasing from five to nine, so two of those nine will actually be operated by Devon and we anticipate they will take the number of uncompleted wells down by approximately 50%, from around 120 to somewhere around 60 wells somewhere at the end of Q4. And that’s one of the things that does also give us the confidence not only we’re going to see good production increases in Q4, but that’s going to sustain itself through the first part of '15 as well.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Biju Perincheril with Susquehanna. Your line is open.
Biju Perincheril – Susquehanna International Group:
A quick question. Obviously, your domestic portfolio has improved tremendously over the past year or so. And just wondering was that -- has there been any change in how you are thinking about the oil sands business, where does that stack up relative to your domestic business now?
John Richels:
Biju, the oil sands business has some very positive characteristics that are different from some of the rest of our business. And we’ve always said that we thought that overtime we were going to provide the best returns and the most solid returns to our shareholders by having a diversified portfolio. And we never wanted to be just the gas company or just an oil company. And so to have – we like that mix between natural gas, natural gas liquids and oil and the mix between light oil and heavy oil as a positive one because they trade very differently and have very different characteristics. What we’ve been seeing with our heavy oil business is that the margins have increased significantly over time. And part of that is the reduction in the differentials as more certainty has risen around the Canadian oil sands business with regard to takeaway capacity and that’s likely to continue. So our view of the future from a differential perspective is that it’s going to continue. It’s going to become more stable, less volatile over time and that it’s going to be lower than it has been historically and that’s as a result of Energy East and Keystone XL which will come on at some point in time and Flanagan and all of the pipelines that are being built, rail now being a significant part and probably a permanent part of the takeaway capacity. So, it’s a very good business. As a matter of fact, in this quarter, our operating margin from Jackfish was somewhere just shy at $40 a barrel. So it’s a pretty good business. And so as we look forward, to have a piece of our portfolio and this type of asset that has basically no decline for 25 years, relatively low maintenance capital is a nice piece to have. So, it's still firmly part of our business. And I will say that, and you’ve heard me say this, Biju, that when we got into this business, we recognized that if we were going to be in this heavy oil business, we had to be in the top quartile or a top decile project or we can’t make money otherwise. And we are fortunate our guys did a great job and we picked a project area that is really in the top part of this industry. And so it’s a real strong part of our business going forward.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Phillips Johnston with Capital One. Your line is open.
Phillips Johnston - Capital One Securities:
Two quick question on the Medina well and other four upper Eagle Ford wells that will be spud by year end. First, are you using enhanced completion designs on those wells? And do you plan to apply the same choke management system that you’ve tried in the lower Eagle Ford?
Dave Hager:
Yes and yes.
Phillips Johnston - Capital One Securities:
And just as a follow up, you’ve talked about how these wells are located in the thickest part of the upper Eagle Ford and certainly thicker than the area to the Northeast where there have been some very good well results by other operators. My question is, what sort of IP rates or 30-day rates would you expect from these wells? And if the wells are successful, how many upper Eagle Ford locations could you potentially add to your overall inventory in the Eagle Ford?
Dave Hager:
Well, I don’t want to -- it’s not even about initial IP or 30 day rates. It’s about the sustainability of those rates and what kind of EURs we need ultimately from those wells. So I don’t have a specific number that I am going to lay out there for that to judge success or lack of success on those. But we’ll be obviously watching the first few months of performance. How much there is? We’re not quite ready or I don’t think we have enough information really to say how much additional resource or how many locations we have. We need to see some success here. This is a different type of formation geologically also. This isn’t a shale this is a marl, which is a type of carbonate reservoir and actually has a little bit of primary porosity to it. So it’s going to behave significantly different than a shale reservoir well. And we need to see more results to really say what kind of spacing we could have if we works to see how many locations. I will point out, I think you’re probably well aware that obviously there have been some wells drilled to the Northeast by other operators, Penn Virginia and others, but I think also if you move to the Southwest, there have been other companies, I think specifically Marathon has been drilling wells for the same interval. This is not the upper Eagle Ford shale. Some might call this the lowest-most Austin Chalk. But we’ve chosen for historical marketing reasons I say to call it the Eagle Ford rather than the Austin Chalk. But it’s actually a marl section that’s above the upper Eagle Ford shale.
Operator:
There are no further questions at this time. I will turn the call back over to John Richels, CEO, for closing comments.
John Richels:
Thank you. And let me just make a couple of comments and I’ll turn it over to Howard just for a couple of comments as well. But I just want to say a couple of things. Thank you for hanging in with us for this long call and we got some great questions. But just want to pass on our thoughts here. We’ve seen a significant transformation in our asset portfolio over the past year. So we have a great portfolio today with high margin assets and a portfolio that has years of visible growth. So today we are laser focused on execution and that’s what’s helped us deliver a great quarter for the third quarter of 2014, allowed us to raise our full year production targets and we’re not taking our foot off the gas. This strong operational momentum is going to continue into 2015 as we continue to grow our oil production and our cash flow. And again, notably, I think we’re doing that in a very capital efficient manner. We’re well positioned to fund our 2015 capital program with our strong financial position. And lastly, while we clearly possess a great deal of financial strength, we are fully committed to exercising capital discipline, maximizing our margins, maintaining our balance sheet strength and optimizing our growth in cash flow per share adjusted for debt. So with that, again, thank you for hanging in. And I’ll just turn it back to Howard.
Howard Thill:
Thanks, John. And I’d like to echo John’s thoughts. We appreciate all your support. I also appreciate the kind words on ops report and the other changes. I want to throw out some thank yous to Scott, Shea, Chris and the rest of the team that have done an outstanding effort to bring this forward. And if you have any additional questions, please don’t hesitate to give any one of us a call. We look forward to seeing you out on the road. Have a great day. Good bye.
Operator:
This concludes today’s conference call. You may now disconnect.
Executives:
Vince White - VP, Communications and IR John Richels - President and CEO Dave Hager - COO Tom Mitchell - EVP and CFO Darryl Smette - EVP, Marketing, Facilities, Pipeline and Supply Chain
Analyst:
David Hickman - Hickman Energy Advisor Doug Leggate - Bank of America Merrill Lynch Brian Singer - Goldman Sachs Arun Jayaram - Credit Suisse Subash Chandra - Jefferies
Operator:
Welcome to Devon Energy’s Second Quarter 2014 Earnings Conference Call. At this time all participants are in a listen-only mode. After the prepared remarks we will conduct a question-and-answer session. The call is being recorded. At this time, I’d like to turn the conference over to Mr. Vince White, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations. Sir, you may begin.
Vince White:
Thank you and welcome everyone to Devon’s second quarter earnings call and webcast. Before we get started, I want to make sure that everyone is aware that we have prepared a handful of slides to supplement today’s script. These are integrated with today’s webcast and they’re also available for download in PDF form on Devon’s home page devonenergy.com. For those that are not participating via webcast, we’ll make sure we refer to slide numbers during our prepared remarks so that you can follow along. Today’s call will follow our usual format and I a few preliminary items to cover, then I’ll turn the call over to our president and CEO, John Richels for this comments, following John, Dave Hager, our chief operating officer will provide an operations update and we’ll wrap up the prepared commentary with a financial review by our CFO, Tom Mitchell. After our financial discussion, we’ll have a Q&A session and we’ll conclude the call after about an hour and of course a replay will be available later today on our Web site. The investor relations team will also be available this afternoon should you have any follow-up questions. On the call today, we’re going to update some of our forward looking information. In addition to the updates that we are providing in the call, we will file a Form 8-K later today that will have details of our updated 2014 estimates. A copy of this updated 8-K will be available within the Investor Relations section of the Devon Web site as well. The guidance we provide today includes plans, forecast, expectations and estimates which are forward-looking statements under U.S. Securities Law. These are of course subject to a number of assumptions, risk and uncertainties many of which are beyond the Company’s control. These statements are not guarantees of future performance and we’d invite you to see the discussion of risk factors relating to these estimates and our Form 10-K. Also in today’s call, we’ll reference certain non-GAAP performance measures. When we use these measures we are required to provide specific related disclosures, those disclosures can be found on Devon’s website. As many of you know I am retiring from Devon at the end of this week. I can honestly say that being a part of this organization for the last 21 years has been both a pleasure and a privilege. I am truly grateful to all my friends at Devon and in the investment community and the industry for making my time here so rewarding. So thank you. At this point I’ll turn the call over to John Richels. John.
John Richels:
Thank you Vince and on behalf of the Company and many people you have positively impacted over your career. I just want to take this opportunity to thank you. You’ve done a terrific job through the years and you have been a great friend and we wish both you and Marty a very happy and healthy retirement. Now as many of you know with Vince’s retirement, Howard Thill has joined our team as Senior Vice President of Communications Investor Relations. Howard has a long history in the business with over 30 years of experience the last 12 and much the same role at Marathon Oil and previously at Phillips Petroleum. We’re very fortunate to have an individual of Howard’s experience join our team and we welcome Howard to Devon. I am sure that many of you will have the opportunity to meet with Howard over the coming months. So let’s move to the results of the quarter. The second quarter was another outstanding one for Devon both operationally and financially as we continued to successfully execute on our strategic plan. As we point out on Slide 3, during the quarter we announced the sale of our non-core U.S. assets the final piece of our portfolio transformation. Since announcing this planned transformation just nine months ago we have taken three very significant steps to reconfigure our portfolio, the accretive Eagle Ford acquisition, the unique and innovative EnLink transaction and the sale of our non-core properties at very attractive prices. Also during this time our drilling program has delivered impressive oil production growth through our focus on our reconfigured portfolio. This oil focused effort helped to deliver a 47% increase in cash flow this quarter compared to last year’s second quarter. And during the period we also completed number of major projects that we’ll discuss in more detail during the call. So let’s take a look at some of these highlights in a bit more detail. Looking at Slide 4, in the second quarter we achieved year-over-year oil production growth of 34% from our go forward asset base, reaching an average daily rate of 205,000 barrels per day. This growth was driven entirely by light oil production from our retained U.S. assets which increased an impressive 79% compared to the second quarter of 2013. This dramatic increase in U.S. oil productions largely attributable to growth from our world class operations in the Permian basin and in the Eagle Ford. With the aggressive transformation of our North American on shore portfolio, total liquids production is expected to approach 60% of Devon’s go forward production by year-end, and that’s up from just over 30% a few years ago. As shown on Slide 5, our focus on high margin oil development increased our companywide oil revenue 42% in the second quarter compared to the previous year and accounted for more than 60% of our total upstream revenue. This strong revenue growth combined with our low cost structure has expanded our pre-tax cash margin per barrel by 40% year-over-year. As shown on Slide 6, as I mentioned earlier, we announced the $2.3 billion sale of our non-core oil and gas properties in the U.S. during the second quarter. This transaction valued these gas weighted assets at approximately seven times EBITDA, significantly above our current trading multiple thereby making it immediately accretive to Devon shareholders. Combined with the sale of our Canadian conventional gas business earlier in the year, which has also had about seven times EBITDA, pre-tax proceeds from our non-core asset divestiture program totaled more than $5 billion. We are applying these proceeds to strengthen our balance sheet by reducing the debt taken on to fund our Eagle Ford acquisition. This portfolio repositioning provides Devon all the necessary attributes to deliver superior per share growth. Our go forwards assets are generating excellent full cycle returns, we have a strong investment grade balance sheet and we have a deep inventory of highly economic low risk development projects in some of the most attractive basins in North America. As you can see on Slide 7, this formidable and balanced portfolio consists of three world-class oil development plays in the Permian Basin, the Eagle Ford and the Canadian oil sands and two of the best liquids-rich gas areas in the U.S., the Barnett Shale which is nearly 30% liquids production and the Anadarko Basin which is about 45% liquids. We also have two emerging oil plays which could further bolster the depth of our portfolio and we have a majority ownership in EnLink Midstream, one of the premier midstream companies in North America. Turning to Slide 8, with the first six months of 2014 results now in hand, our retained asset portfolio remains on track to deliver companywide oil production growth of more than 30% year-over-year. This exceptional oil growth rate is driven entirely by the 70% plus increase we expect in U.S. wide oil production. This should drive about 10% top-line production growth on a 6:1 energy equivalency basis. And on a value or price equivalency basis, applying a more realistic oil to natural gas price ratio of 20:1, expected top-line production growth in 2014 will be approximately 20%. Moving to Slide 9, I'll remind you that about 80% of our 2014 E&P capital budget is focused on our core and emerging oil development opportunities which will continue to drive our oil production growth in the second half of 2014 as well as next year. As you can see on the table to the right of that slide, year-to-date, we have spent just under half of our 2014 capital budget. With large high quality acreage positions in each of our core assets, we're positioned with a deep inventory of repeatable investment opportunities. In fact as we discussed on our call last quarter, one of the most exciting operational developments over the past several months has been the significant expansion of our drilling inventory and our resource potential in the five margin core areas. Led by the tremendous results that we are seeing in the Delaware Basin, our gross risk undrilled inventory has now increased by more than 5,000 locations year-to-date. These 5,000 plus locations have been rigorously risked based on historical well performance, in-depth technical evaluations and disciplined economic expectations based on the current price and cost environment just to mention a few. As we continue to de-risk and develop the opportunities within our portfolio, we fully expect our inventory to further increase overtime. In fact with the technical work that we have done over the last quarter, we have increasing confidence that we can materially grow this inventory in the near future and Dave will speak to this in more detail later. Not only do we have a very large resource base but we also have the financial capacity to efficiently convert this resource into production and cash flow. Our balance sheet's in terrific shape and our operating cash flow continues to accelerate, thanks to our rapid oil growth, driving margins higher. And don’t forget that another potential source of cash for Devon is the ability to dropdown additional midstream assets to EnLink. As seen on slides 10 and 11, two potential dropdown candidates are the access pipeline in the Canadian oil sands and the Victoria Express Pipeline in the Eagle Ford, both of which were recently completed. These strategically located assets have exposure to two of the fastest growing oil plays in North America. While no decision has been made, these high quality pipelines could be dropped into EnLink within the next year or two. Given the visibility of our significant cash inflows, coupled with a high margin asset base ready for development, we expect to accelerate drilling activity in 2015 across several of our core and emerging plays. As you can see on Slide 12, Devon is positioned to deliver organic oil production growth in excess of 20% in 2015 while delivering a healthy topline production growth in the mid-single digits. The Eagle Ford and the Delaware Basin will once again lead our oil production growth in the U.S. and we will also see significant oil growth from our Jackfish 3 project in Canada where we recently started steam injection. In summary we’re very pleased with the execution and outcome of the transformative steps that we took over a relatively short period of time to high grade our portfolio and meaningfully improve our growth trajectory and margins. When you combine the growth potential of our top tier oil development projects with our high quality natural gas optionality, we’re very well positioned for competitive growth for years to come. And as we execute on our growth plans Devon shareholders will continue to benefit from improving margins, higher cash flows and further value recognition through EnLink. And with that I’ll turn the call over to Dave Hager for a more detailed operations review. Dave?
Dave Hager:
Thank you John. As John mentioned our solid execution in the quarter resulted in strong oil production growth driving an impressive increase in our operating cash flow. We are laser focused on the key drivers of outstanding operational performance, including driving down drilling times, optimized conclusion designs and very efficient production operations. Continuous improvement in each of these areas and others will provide incremental value in each of our operating areas. Now let’s take a closer look at some of Devon’s key operating highlights in more detail. In the Permian basin we increased production 25% compared to the same quarter last year to 95,000 BOE per day. The solid execution of our development programs in the Permian place is firmly on track to grow 2014 production by 20% compared to 2013. Importantly light oil production accounts for nearly 60% of our total Permian volumes. Shown in the green outline on Slide 13, is the Bone Spring play in Delaware Basin, a key driver of our Permian oil growth. In the second quarter we brought 22 new Bone Spring wells online, with average 30 day IP rates of 660 BOE per day, once again exceeding our pre-drill expectations. At an average cost of just over 6 million per well our Bone Spring program is delivering some of the best returns in our portfolio. We also have an ongoing Delaware Sands program that is beating expectations. In the second quarter we commenced production on two high-rate oil wells targeting the Delaware Sands Lea County, New Mexico. Initial 30-day production from each of these two wells averaged about 1,000 BOE per day, 70% of which was light oil. As we discussed last quarter the tremendous results from our Delaware Basin drilling programs coupled with an ongoing reservoir characterization work allowed us to substantially increase our rest undrilled inventory. The stack pay nature of our position in Delaware Basin provides us with exposure not only to the Bone Spring and Delaware Sands but also the Leonard Shale, Wolfcamp and several other oil zones. In aggregate our multi-zone potential and the Delaware Basin provides us with exposure to more than 5,000 (risk) [ph] undrilled locations. Turning your attention to Slide 14, I want to be clear. This inventory of 5,000 plus locations is not simply acreage divided by an arbitrary well spacing. We screen these locations based on multi-variant analysis that takes into account geologic, geophysical, completion and production data that characterize and predict reservoir performance. This disciplined methodology is utilized across our entire portfolio including the Delaware Basin to identify and quantify undrilled inventory. Slide 15, provides a summary of the risking applied to each of our perspective zones in the Delaware Basin. In the second column our technical teams have identified net perspective acres in each formation in the Delaware Basin. Next, the multi-variant analysis I just described was performed by our technical teams which risked these perspective acres by as much as 50%. Now there is insufficient data to do a multi-variant analysis on down spacing. So you can see we conservatively assumed only four to five wells per drillable section in each formation. Given that we believe there is meaningful upside to our inventory. For example we’re currently implanting a program in the Delaware Basin to utilize a much larger and more focused frac design, deliver a more complex fracturing network closer to the well bore. We believe these larger, more complex frac designs will more effectively drain the reservoir, increase recovery factors and further enhance rate return. In conjunction with these larger more complex focused fracs we are evaluating the concept of a staggered lateral development scheme that can further tighten well spacing across our entire prospective formations in the Delaware Basin and thus could significantly increase our risk undrilled inventory. We will continue to update you on our progress in the coming quarters. Converting this massive and growing opportunity in the Delaware Basin into production and cash flow, is a top priority for us. While not finalized, our preliminary plan is to increase our operated rig count from the 12 currently running in the Delaware to as many as 20 by the end of 2015. We plan to ramp the activity in an orderly fashion, as we secured gathering and processing capacity, high quality rigs, completion services and manpower to support the higher rig count. This increased investment in the Delaware Basin will allow us to continue aggressively developing our highly profitable Bone Spring inventory and accelerate the development and appraisal of our Delaware sands, Leonard Shale and Wolfcamp inventories. This sets up the prolific Delaware Basin position for significant high margin growth in 2015 and for years to come. Shifting to the Midland Basin, we delivered another quarter of strong results from our oil development program in a Southern Midland Wolfcamp shale. We increased average net production in this play to 12,000 Boe per day, representing significant year-over-year increase of 9,000 Boe per day. In a Northern Midland Wolfcamp trend, we start our first horizontal well in Martin County, targeting the Wolfcamp B formation in the third quarter. We have approximately 14,000 net acres in a prolific Martin County area, prospective to multiple Wolfcamp zones. In aggregate, we have identified about 200 undrilled locations in the Northern Midland Wolfcamp trend and this is an area likely to see increased activity as we head into 2015. Shifting to the Eagle Ford on Slide 16, while we have wholly-owned these assets for a handful of months, we could not be more pleased with the performance we have seen from this world-class asset. And we have already identified several promising opportunities that can further enhance well economics and boost our drilling inventory. I will speak to this in more detail shortly but let’s begin with a review of the second quarter results. During the quarter, we have 17 rigs running across our Eagle Ford position with the majority focus on developing our DeWitt County acreage in the economic heart of this top tier oil play. We brought 60 new Eagle Ford wells online with average 30 day IP ratio, approaching 1,200 Boe per day. These high impact wells drove our average Q2 production in the Eagle Ford to 65,000 Boe per day, in line with the guidance range we had provided last quarter. Notably, we achieved a strong growth in spite of production interruptions primarily related to third-party gathering constraints in DeWitt County. In aggregate, these gathering constraints reduced production by about 8,000 Boe per day in the quarter. Even with these infrastructure limitations, we were able to bring approximately 30 wells online around mid-quarter that helped accelerate our average net production in June to 73,000 Boe per day. This ramp up in June represents an impressive increase of nearly 50% compared to the first quarter exit rate. It is also worth mentioning that our Eagle Ford production is also delivering the highest pre-tax cash operating margin of any asset in our portfolio at around $60 per Boe. Looking ahead to the second half of the year, our drilling and completion programs in Eagle Ford remain on schedule, keeping us on track to deliver outstanding production growth rates. As we have said before, this production can be somewhat lumpy due to the timing of pad drilling and third-party and midstream infrastructure. At June 30th, we had 108 drilled wells not yet producing. We expect this inventory to continue to trend downward over the coming months as the number pads are scheduled for tie-in and a necessary transportation system improvements are completed in DeWitt County. As a result, for the remaining six months of 2014, we are forecasting our net Eagle Ford production to average between 80,000 and 85,000 Boe per day. We expect both the third and fourth quarter to generate solid sequential quarter production growth with volume growth weighted more toward the fourth quarter due to the timing of pad tie-ins that I just mentioned. Overall, the second half outlook, keeps us on pace to deliver on our previously announced guidance of 70,000 to 80,000 Boe per day for 10 months of ownership this year. as I touched on earlier, we are also excited about a number of potential upside opportunities we have identified across our position in Eagle Ford. In our development activity in DeWitt County, we are currently closely working with our partner BHP to enhance various aspects of our well completions as well as areas on the production operations side of the business. While it's premature to discuss any specific details the technical teams have identified opportunities to optimize completion designs that could increase well recoveries and at the same time reduce well costs. The teams have also identified potential opportunities to improve the rates of return to optimize choke management. As we continue to pursue these promising initiatives we will continue to update you on our progress. Moving to Slide 17, another leg of upside is in Lavaca County. In the second quarter we tied in our first operated well in Lavaca County targeting the lower Eagle Ford formation. As seen on the blue on the map the initial 24 hour production from the Ronyn 1H was approximately 1,600 Boe per day, of which 70% was light oil. Combined with announced well by industry represented in gray lower Eagle Ford results to date in Lavaca County have exceeded our initial expectations. Turning your attention to Slide 18, perhaps one of our more exciting potential upside opportunities is in the upper Eagle Ford. As shown by the size of Parkman, the majority of our DeWitt and Lavaca County acreage is highly perspective for this emerging play. This is further supported by the encouraging industry results in Lavaca County seen in gray on the map. It is worth noting that these Lavaca County wells results are not in the thickest part of the upper Eagle Ford, which as you can see from the map bodes well for the prospects of our DeWitt County acreage where the upper Eagle Ford net pay is the thickest. We have just filed our first operated upper Eagle Ford well the Medina 2H on 100% working interest acreage in Northeast DeWitt County. This can be seen in blue on the map. This is the first of a handful of tasks planned this year. If the upper Eagle Ford formation is commercially successful this could expand Devon's resource and further deepen our drilling inventory. On Slide 19, at our Jackfish thermal oil projects in Northeastern Alberta gross production from our Jackfish 1 and Jackfish 2 projects increased 3% year-over-year to a combined average of 60,000 barrels of oil per day or 52,000 barrels per day after royalties. Further enhancing results this significant improvement in Western Canadian slug benchmark pricing increased price realizations at Jackfish by 22% compared to the year ago quarter to $65.88. At Jackfish 1 gross production averaged 36,000 barrels per day or 29,000 barrels per day net of royalties in the second quarter. The success of our ongoing efforts to improve our steam oil ratio once again resulted in gross production exceeding the facilities main pipe capacity of 35,000 barrels per day. In the third quarter we will bring the Jackfish 1 plant down for a schedule two week maintenance turnaround beginning in September. Accordingly this maintenance downtime and subsequent ramp up will reduce Jackfish 1 production by 5,000 to 10,000 barrels per day in the third quarter. Keep in mind this has been built into our third quarter and full year production guidance. At Jackfish 3 we began steaming on July 13 and expect a steady ramp up of production over the next 18 months to a sustained rate of 35,000 barrels a day. Jackfish 3 will provide multi-year oil production growth beginning in 2015 with net oil production from our Jackfish complex expected to be between 62,000 and 67,000 barrels per day. This represents production growth of about 30% compared to 2014. Furthermore as seen on Slide 20, the completion of Jackfish 3 will begin an era of free cash flow from our Jackfish complex with the potential to generate around $1 billion annually for many years. Even after accounting for maintenance capital requirements. Shifting now to the Anadarko Basin Western Oklahoma for our operations continued to deliver great results. In the second quarter we have once again set a production record reaching 93,000 Boe per day. With drilling focused on our most liquid rich acreage oil and NGL production increased 26% year-over-year and is now about 45% of production in the Anadarko Basin. The Cana-Woodford play was the most significant contributor to our strong second quarter production growth in the Anadarko Basin. This growth was driven by the strong performance of several new well pads brought on line that employed our new redesign completions as well as rejuvenated performance from existing wells as a result of our ongoing asset treatment program. Slide 21, shows the meaningful increase in sand per well along with more frac stages and tighter perp clusters. This new frac design was utilized on the 20 Cana-Woodford well we brought on line and the liquids rich core play during the second quarter. Initial 30 day raise from these wells averaged 1,250 Boe per day including 700 barrels of liquids per day exceeding our type curve by more than 35%. These are among the most productive wells ever drilled in Cana with average EURs trending in excess of a 1.5 million equivalent barrels per well. As you can see on Slide 22, for the 20 wells were brought online in Q2, the redesigned completions dramatically enhanced IPs, boosted EURs by more than 15% and with well cost essentially flat. This translates into strong rates of return that are competitive with many U.S. oil plays. Our asset team at Cana have also done some outstanding work to revitalize production from existing wells with asset treatments. We have now treated nearly 200 operated and non-operated Cana wells and results have been exceptional. In most cases, the inexpensive procedure around $250,000 per job, took production per well from about a 1 million cubic feet equivalent per day, up to 2 million a day or more. As seen on Slide 23, these asset jobs have improved our gross operated wet gas production at Cana by roughly 40 million cubic feet a day. We expect Bcf per well of additional recovery with a payback period of less than three months. We have around 140 additional operated and non-operated wells that can be treated in the core area and we expect to have most of these treated by year-end. Moving to Slide 24, given the success of these recent efforts at Cana, we opportunistically bolstered our leasehold position in May by acquiring an additional 50,000 net acres in the core of the play. This transaction closed in late June, increasing our total Cana-Woodford position to approximately 280,000 net surface acres with stacked pay potential including about 30,000 net acres of exposure to the stack, oil and condensate window. The new acreage further supplements the thousands of undrilled locations we have in this high quality liquids-rich play. Due to the highly competitive economics at Cana, we plan to accelerate activity in 2015. If you were to include the non-operated activity of our partner in the play, our total rig count at Cana could be around 10 rigs by the first quarter of 2015. This increased activity puts Cana in a position to deliver strong growth for many years. Moving to Slide 25, we have approximately 150,000 net surface acres in the Powder River Basin prospective for multiple formations including the Parkman, Turner and Frontier. To-date, we have identified approximately 1,000 risk locations across our Powder River Basin position with roughly 75% of these locations associated with the Parkman formation. Our recent drilling activity was highlighted by two wells targeting the Parkman formation in Campbell County, Wyoming. Initial 30 day production at each of these wells averaged 950 Boe per day of which 95% was light oil. At an average well cost of only $5 million per well, our Parkman program is generating attractive rates of return. We expect to add a fourth rig later this year and more aggressively develop the Parkman focus area in the second half of 2014 and 2015. With that I'll turn the call over to Tom for the financial review and outlook. Tom.
Tom Mitchell:
Thank you, Dave and good morning to everyone. To reiterate John and Dave’s comments, the second quarter was one of strong execution. We delivered operationally by successfully exploiting the high margin production opportunities within our portfolio. And we also delivered solid financial results as well. Our strong growth in oil production, combined with improved oil price realizations drove our E&P upstream revenue to 2.7 billion in the second quarter. These factors increased oil sales to more than 60% of our total E&P revenue in the quarter, pushing overall upstream revenue 20% higher than the year ago quarter. Not only are our upstream revenues growing rapidly but our midstream profitability is expanding as well. In the second quarter, our midstream business delivered excellent results, generating 224 million of operating profit. This result exceeded the top end of our guidance range and represented a 90% increase compared to the second quarter of last year. The year-over-year increase in operating profit was driven by the consolidation of EnLink Midstream and improved marketing margins. Based on our outstanding results in the first half of the year, we are increasing our full year forecast for midstream operating profit to a range of 775 million to 825 million, an increase of roughly 80 million from the midpoint of our previous guidance. Moving to expenses, in the second quarter total pre-tax cash costs were well within our guidance range for the quarter coming in at 1.1 billion. Excluding the cost associated with the consolidation of EnLink, pre-tax cash costs for our upstream business were 7% higher than the second quarter of 2013. Now this amount, a third of the cost increase was attributable to higher operating cost associated with Devon’s rapidly growing high margin oil. The remaining increase was driven by higher production taxes related to our strong revenue growth. Looking to the second half of the year we expect modest upward pressure on our pre-tax cash cost and this is reflected in our 8-K guidance that will be filed later on today. Overall, the benefits of our high margin oil production, improved price realizations in low class structure significantly expanded our pre-tax cash margins. In fact our pre-tax cash margins improved by 40% year-over-year to our highest level in recent history. Moving to the bottom line, our strong second quarter performance delivered adjusted earnings of $574 million or $1.40 per diluted share, the 16% increase compared to the same quarter last year. This improved profitability also translated into higher cash flows as well and we generated cash flow from operations of $2 billion, a 47% increase compared to the year ago quarter. Combined with 2.8 billion of pre-tax proceeds received from the sale of the company’s Canadian conventional gas business in April. Devon’s total cash inflows for the quarter reached 4.8 billion. In late June, we repay created the $2.8 billion sale proceeds from Canada, we utilize these bonds the free cash flow generated down the quarter and cash on hand to reduce debt by 3.2 billion during the quarter. At June 30, our net debt declined to $10.8 billion of which $1.7 billion was attributable to the consolidation of EnLink Midstream and it’s non-recourse to Devon. If you were to pro forma of the balance sheet for the closing of our U.S. divestitures which should occur in the next few weeks, our net debt excluding EnLink’s debt decreased to around $7.5 billion. So to put this in better perspective this is only around one time's 2014 expected EBITDA and this positions are go forward Devon with a strong investment grade credit ratings across the board and one of the better balance sheets in the E&P space. Moving to our outlook for the third quarter, we expect our go forward asset portfolio continue to demonstrate excellent year-over-year growth in oil production. With average daily oil rates ranging 200,000 to 210,000 barrels per day, this guidance implies an expected 30 plus percent increase in oil production from our go forward properties compared to the year ago quarter. We expect to achieve this excellent growth in spite of the planned turnaround objectives which will limit production by 5,000 to 10,000 barrels per day in the third quarter. Overall, we expect our go forward asset portfolio to deliver total production in the range of 603,000 to 627,000 Boe per day and this represents a top line growth from our retained assets of more than 10% compared to third quarter of 2013. Based on our solid execution during the first six months of this year, we remain very comfortable with our previous full year guidance ranges for production. For the full year, we are on track to average more than 600,000 Boe per day from our go forward business driven by full year oil growth rate in excess of 30%. And finally, as a reminder we will be filing an 8-K later today containing detailed estimates for the upcoming third quarter and for the full year 2014. And will that, I will turn the call back to Vince, for Q&A. Vince?
Vince White :
Thank you, operator we are ready for the first question.
Operator:
Thank you, your first question comes from David Hickman with Hickman Energy Advisor. Your line is open.
David Hickman - Hickman Energy Advisor :
I wanted to look at 5-15 days and just talk about each of the objectives you highlighted to get to the risk factor, can you just give us like what was the number one or the number two objective in the Delaware, Leonard, Bone Spring and other just to get to the 30% to 50% risk factors?
Dave Hager:
:
It was the primary things you have to look at, we looked at everything but you look at the prospectivity of the area based on all the well results you have and then you also apply what we call a drillability factor, can they physically be at locations, physically be accessed with our acreage inventory, those are two primary things we look at and then we also are looking at obviously historical production data to help it out and we all put it into what we call in multi-variant analysis but we remove bias and this is a statistical analysis where we are looking at basically trends in an un-bias manner that correlate with prospectivity. That doesn’t totally substitute for good technical work but it’s an additive to that but those are the main things you are looking at traditional things you are used to David is just good geosciences work, combined with reservoir work and production history.
David Hickman - Hickman Energy Advisor :
And I guess where I’m going is, as you get more production history in the Leonard and in the Bone Spring sands, do you expect those risk factors to move up with well performance there, how do things trend over time?
Dave Hager:
:
Well, the latest table constructor we hope the risk factors move down actually because the lower is the better, the way we constructed the table. Yes absolutely, as get more data we expect these risk factors to go down. And I think the biggest thing we expect to move up perhaps is this column this risked wells per section, because that’s where we simply don’t have enough data to do this kind of multi-variant analysis, because there hasn’t been a lot of wells that have been drilled, six wells per section or eight wells per section in order to get a good history on. So in this case we didn’t really do that detailed statistical analysis, we just made -- what we think is a very conservative assumption and as we conduct these pilots which we’re doing right now. We think there is great opportunity that we may increase from the four to five wells per section to more wells per section. But we just want to get some pilot information before we do that.
David Hickman - Hickman Energy Advisor :
And then just thinking about that and leading to the 5,000 the likely grows. What’s the optimal kind of inventory life as you think about the basin relative to the number of wells you drill per year?
Dave Hager:
:
The way we think about it, is we generate as many as we can obviously, then we try to put as many rigs to work as we feel that we can and maintain the quality of our drilling results. So we identify huge new resource inventory, that’s great news. But then we got to think about what can we actually execute and deliver the results with the risk that we perceive in the basins. So I don’t know if there is an optimum. I mean I would love to have 100 years inventory, totally theoretical standpoint. But what we’re trying to do is increase the pace of our drill commence with our ability to de-risk the area. And we’re confident we’re going to be able to get somewhat around 20 rigs next year and we’re thinking higher than that internally but we got to walk before we run and so we’ll see where it goes.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Doug Leggate with Bank of America. Your line is open.
Doug Leggate - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
If I could take two questions please. First of all Dave on the Eagle Ford, just to be clear I am assuming you had no inventory in the upper Eagle Ford in your initial analysis when you acquired your southern. And if that is the case, can you give us some ideas based on (obviously) [ph] a number of third party wells that hoped and drilled near for Eagle Ford. From what you know today, what would you say about how -- at what proportion your acreage is perspective? And anything you could say about how that may change the inventory count? And I have a follow up please.
Dave Hager:
:
Well we had none of this and the inventory at the time we did the acquisition we gave zero value to the upper Eagle Ford. So this is all additive from a value standpoint. As you can see from the isopach map that we included in the presentation, we think the bulk of our acreage is perspective for the upper Eagle Ford. The key is that there is an ash zone that develops that we think that will contain the fracs that have been done in the lower Eagle Ford from penetrating up to the upper Eagle Ford. And when we talk upper Eagle Ford, there are a couple of different upper Eagle Ford intervals, just you guys know there is an upper Eagle Ford shale and there is upper Eagle Ford Marl, we’re really talking about the upper Eagle Ford marl which some might call the lower Austin Chalk, but it’s a Marl zone and it is very mapable. We think the bulk of the acreage is developable for that. How much that adds at this point? Or we think is potentially is developable, we need to get more well results, so before we can quantify too much. And frankly where we’re drilling right now in Lavaca County may or may not be the best part of it. The best maybe in DeWitt County.
Doug Leggate - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
My follow up is I guess is a Cana question but it is also kind of an activity question. 5,000 locations the 10 rigs, obviously I am missing something here. What proportion of those 5,000 locations falls into the category of the enhanced frac that you described obviously yourself. And how does this basically change capital allocation as you move forward in terms of [indiscernible] EBITDA level? I'll leave it there. Thanks.
John Richels:
:
We may go higher than that, that’s a fair enough point Doug. Now this is a recent development with these improved completion designs that are really enhancing the Cana economics. So we are allocating rigs back out there. we obviously want to see, we’ve been drilling in what we think is some of the best part of the play not all of it is going to necessary quite as good as this but we think it’s still going to be very good. So we’re going to see where these results are, where they take us. It’s possible that we may continue to ramp the rigs up well beyond the 10 that I mentioned in my previous comments.
Doug Leggate - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Thinking more about the overall portfolio Dave in terms of given the spend for the balance sheet. I mean is there -- how do you see acceleration generally across the portfolio, given where your inventory is building on it pretty much every play now.
Dave Hager:
:
John may want to answer this too. But we obviously every year put together a long range plan where we try to balance our ability to execute on the portfolio and maintaining the strong balance sheet. And so this is part of the capital allocation process that we’re going through right now as we speak about where we want to end up on that. I think the good news is we’re in great financial shape after these transactions. John you want to add to that?
John Richels:
And then Doug one thing as Dave said, we are in great shape and we will have to see. We haven’t port our budget for next year, we are still going to be working on that. I think the really important thing is with the transformation that we have undertaken over the last while, we have put ourselves in the position to be able to live within cash flow and still grow at very, very competitive rates whether we choose to do that or not that’s another question. We may well, based on our outlook, based on industry conditions and basin conditions, choose to accelerate that in the future as well. And what’s important is we got the financial capability, in some of the areas or in all of our areas, we want to make sure that we don’t get ahead of the science, we don’t get ahead of the geology, we don’t get ahead of infrastructure, organizational capacity, availability of rigs and service and all of those kinds of things. So, other items that factor into the pace that we can accelerate at but I will say we are all really excited. We are in a position that we haven’t been in for a while of being able to significantly grow really high margin products and generate high levels of cash flow. So, we feel pretty good about where we are right now.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Brian Singer with Goldman Sachs. Your line is open.
Brian Singer - Goldman Sachs:
Wanted to follow-up on the CapEx points you were just discussing. Can you just talk to how you are thinking about CapEx for the remainder of the year and then since you did provide some preliminary oil growth expectations for 2015 within the context of your cash flow and your 2014 budget. How should we preliminarily think about 2015 levels of spending needed to achieve 20% plus oil growth?
John Richels:
:
Well just for this -- this year, we haven’t changed our guidance for the year, Brian, I think we are on the street at 5 to 5.4 for our E&P capital spending and that’s assuming costs remain the same but we will see how that all sorts out. And we are halfway through the year and we so far spend about 47% of our total CapEx budget for the year, so we are on track for this year. When we talk about 20% growth in 2015, growth in our oil production 2015, we've done that based on our expectation for cash flow for next year. So, again as I said earlier whether we -- as we finish developing our budget and take all these other factors that I mentioned when I was replying to Doug, into account, where we actually ended up with a capital budget in 2015 remains to be seen but that 20% number is assuming living within cash flow.
Brian Singer - Goldman Sachs:
And then shifting back to the Delaware, the acreage position that you have there in New Mexico and Texas probably puts you in a very good position to comment on the quality of the oil and the impact of condensate. As you continue to drill in various zones and various parts of the play, are you seeing any increased condensate coming out of your wells? Is that impacting your realizations and what are you expecting there going forward?
Darryl Smette:
:
This is Darryl. In Permian Basin, what we have seen pretty consistently is a quality of group between 38 and 42 degrees. The vast majority of that is less than five-tenths of a percent sulfur so it’s classified as sweet crude. There have been individual wells that we have drilled. We have seen the gravity go up as high as 45 to 46% which has not been consistent through all of our wells. There have been some industry players who have also seen gravity that high, depending on the volume from industry that comes out of that 45 to 46 degree gravity. It’s pretty well blended in the other crude out there that’s in the 36 to 40 degree, so we really don’t see at least in the foreseeable future that, we are going to have any condensate problems coming out of the Permian Basin.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Arun Jayaram with Credit Suisse. Your line is open.
Arun Jayaram - Credit Suisse:
Thank you. Dave, I wanted to see if you can elaborate on your plans to increase your rig count in Delaware from 12 to 20 and maybe you can maybe just opinion on where your technical understanding is of the play versus a year or two ago and just your confidence in executing a program of that size?
Dave Hager :
Yes, well, I think our technical understanding has increased pretty significantly as we have appraised across our entire acreage position that has now put us into a position now that we have a pretty good understanding of what the prospectivity is across our entire acreage position. There is always risk when you drill well, so it’s not an absolute but I would say our technical understanding because we have been appraising across the entire acreage position, certainly in the Bone Springs is there now. We still need to drill additional wells and we have a listed inventory in the Wolfcamp and there haven’t been many drill on the New Mexico side and the Wolfcamp, so that’s an area that still takes some additional maturing but there is no question that overall and in some of the other formations such as the Leonard obviously, we haven’t drilled that many wells. We are drilling our first one right now but the industry has. So we’ve got a pretty hand on what’s going on there. So, from a technical standpoint most areas are maturing, that is really a little bit less on the technical side is more just getting making sure we have several factors working together to execute and we’re confident we’re going to get there, the aim should be to make sure that we have a high quality rigs and services are available, we have the gas takeaway capacity, and we have the infrastructure in the field from just a pure manpower standpoint to manage this kind of rig capacity. And so we’re working through all those issues and we’re confident that’s going to allows to do 20 rigs sometime next year.
Arun Jayaram - Credit Suisse:
Okay, and just my follow up. John, what your longer term thoughts regarding the pipe development and the regulatory approval process on that project?
John Richels :
We filed the application for 105,000 barrels of project with BP about the end of last year. So, we’ve been going through the process and it’s moving along very well, we have some consultations that are with some groups that aren’t left but it’s moving along really well and it’s our expectations that we’ll get the regulatory approval for that project probably late this year or early in 2015. So, it’s moving along really well and of course we still have as you know we haven’t made the final things I mean decision on that yet but something it will have to do this well but it’s moving along and Pike is, that was an area that always appealing to us because it’s directly adjacent to Jackfish and Jackfish is in what looks to be the sweet spot of the oil sands for SAGD development. So this is a pretty good looking lease.
Arun Jayaram - Credit Suisse:
Quick follow up, given the Delaware Basin opportunity, Cana-Woodford, Rockies oil, how would Pike now compete for capital relative to your U.S. onshore growth potential?
John Richels:
:
Yes, that’s a good question. It’s a project that has very, very different characteristics. So, if you just want to compare strictly on a rate of return basis, it doesn’t compete as well because, you are reporting some capital upfront, you get this long stream of cash flow over a longer period of time. So, they're very different projects, the good part of it is, very, very low geological risk, very low engineering risk, you got this flat production profile for 20 or 25 years and an extremely high cash flow stream that comes with that. So, it really -- the characteristics of it are quite different and we’ve always thought that having a portfolio that’s has -- that's balanced in some way not only between natural gas, natural gas liquids and oil, we kind of like that balance between light oil and heavy oil too because they trade very differently over time and because they have these different characteristics. So, those are all things that we have to take into consideration in making that decision, it’s kind of balancing the near term versus the longer term aspects of those two kinds of or two different plays.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Subash Chandra with Jefferies, your line is open.
Subash Chandra - Jefferies :
Yes, thanks for squeezing me in. Just a couple of questions I guess first on Pike again, the access pipeline, is that sized for Pike? Or does it have to go through additional expansion for Pike?
Darryl Smette:
This is Darryl, and yes it is sized for Pike, actually sized for both Jackfish and Pike and it does have the ability with additional pump stations to increase capacity significantly, we currently have about 270,000 barrels a day of capacity on the blended stream and like I said with additional pump capacity we can increase that volume for that pipeline. So, all of those things have been taken into consideration. I might just add the access pipeline looping the 42 inch line was completed end of the second quarter early third quarter and we are now in the process of line filling that line so which should be operational towards the end of this year.
John Richels:
:
So, those volumes that Darryl is saying that’s really much more than we -- I mean that expansion capability with an extra pumping is actually much more than we need for Jackfish and Pike.
Subash Chandra - Jefferies :
Okay, so it’s in excess of those as well, okay. And then in Cana, the 10 rigs, is that -- are we still 6 to 8 operated and the balance non-op?
Darryl Smette:
The 6 to 8, if we do the 6 to 8 operated we really set around 10 by the first of the year if we do the full 6 to 8 which we as I was explained to Doug Leggate, we may do that and we may do more, that would actually be -- get us above the 10 rigs if we do that given what [indiscernible] is doing. And there is -- financially will do that. We’re just staying by the first year-over-year around 10.
Subash Chandra - Jefferies :
Okay, but combined op, non-op?
Darryl Smette:
Yes, that’s right.
Subash Chandra - Jefferies :
And any commentary just if you can refresh me on the status of the drilling carriers and where you sort of see the intercompany rig movements take place over the next six months?
Darryl Smette:
Well, I will start off with the rig movements. There is not a lot of rig movement going on. We are as we described increasing our activity a little bit already in Cana and so we are dropping down activity a little bit in the mix for that. We will be adding a little bit in the powder as I described but overall not a large movement in rigs in the last half of this year. We will be ramping up as we go into 2015. Now on the carriers, on the Sinopec side, as of June 30th, there was about just over $500 million remaining of the $1.6 billion carry. On Sumitomo side, there is 345 million remaining of a 1.25 billion total drilling carry. Around the end of the year, we think we would be down to the point on the Sinopec side, where we will be about a little over 150 million left and just under 150 million left on the Sumitomo side that we will utilize in 2015.
John Richels:
:
Well folks, I am showing the top of our here but before signing off let me leave you with a few key takeaways from today’s call. First, we have dramatically improved our portfolio in a short period of time. Devon emerges with a formidable portfolio that’s on track to deliver attractive high margin production growth for many years to come. As evidenced by our second quarter results, our pursuit of high margin production is significantly expanding our margins and profitability. And finally the commitment to our top strategic objective that you heard us talk about often, which is to optimize long-term growth and debt adjusted cash flow per share has never been stronger. As we deliver on our growth expectations we are poised to create significant value for our shareholders in the upcoming years. So, we look forward to talking with you again on our next call and thank you for joining us today.
Operator:
Thank you. This concludes today’s conference call. You may now disconnect.
Executives:
Vince White – VP, Communications and IR John Richels – President and CEO Dave Hager – COO Tom Mitchell – EVP and CFO Darryl Smette – EVP, Marketing, Facilities, Pipeline and Supply Chain
Analysts:
Arun Jayaram – Credit Suisse Doug Leggate – Bank of America Merrill Lynch Brian Singer – Goldman Sachs Subash Chandra – Jefferies & Company Jeffrey Campbell – Tuohy Brothers Investment Research
Operator:
Welcome to Devon Energy’s First Quarter Earnings Conference Call. At this time all participants are in a listen-only mode. After the prepared remarks we will conduct a question-and-answer session. The call is being recorded. At this time, I’d like to turn the conference over to Mr. Vince White, Senior Vice President of Communications and Investor Relations. Sir, you may begin.
Vince White:
Thank you and welcome everybody to Devon’s First Quarter Earnings Call and Webcast. Before we get started, I want to make sure that everyone is aware that we have prepared a handful of slides to supplement today’s presentation. The slides are integrated with today’s webcast but they’re also available for download in PDF form on Devon’s home page at devonenergy.com. For those that are not participating via webcast, we’ll make sure we refer to slide numbers during our prepared remarks so that you can follow along. Today’s call will follow our usual format and as I will first cover a few preliminary items and then turn the call over to our president and CEO, John Richels, for this comments; then Dave Hager, our chief operating officer will provide an operations update and we’ll wrap up our commentary with a financial review by our CFO, Tom Mitchell. After our financial discussion, we’ll have a Q&A session and we’ll conclude the call after about an hour and replay will be available later today on our website. The investor relations team will also be available this afternoon should you have any follow-up questions. On the call today, we’re going to update some of our forward looking information. In addition to the updates that we are providing in the call, we will file an 8-K later today containing the details of our updated 2014 estimates. The copy of this updated 8-K will be available within Investor Relations section of the Devon website. The guidance that we are providing today includes plans, forecast, expectations and estimates which are all considered forward-looking statements under US Securities Law and these are of course subject to a number of assumptions, risk and uncertainties many of which are beyond our control. These statements are not guarantees of future performance and for a discussion of the risk factors relating to our estimates see our Form 10-K. Also in today’s call, we’ll reference certain non-GAAP performance measures. When we use these measures there are required specific related disclosures and those can also be found on our website. At this point, I’ll turn the call over to our president and CEO, John Richels.
John Richels:
Thank you, Vince, and good morning everyone. Before we get in to the business of the quarter, I’d like to take just a moment here to welcome our latest edition to Devon’s team of senior executives and that’s our chief financial officer, Tom Mitchell. Many of you already know Tom and you know that Tom brings a wealth of industry experience and considerable financial sophistication and we’re thrilled to have him on board. As Vince already mentioned, you’re going to hear from Tom later on in the call and as you have the opportunity in the coming months to meet with him, please join us in welcoming Tom to Devon. So with that, let’s take a look at our results. The first quarter was another excellent one for Devon. As shown on slide three, our disciplined focus on high-margin oil development opportunities led to another quarter of outstanding growth in oil production that drove significant operating margin improvements. Additionally, we made meaningful progress in our efforts to high grade our go-forward asset portfolio. This progress was evidenced by the closing of our Eagle Ford acquisition, the completion of the EnLink Midstream combination, our exit from the conventional gas business in Canada, and our recently announced bolt-on [ph] acreage acquisition in Cana. In addition, we once again raised our dividend during the quarter. Now, let’s take a look at some of the highlights in more detail. In the first quarter, we achieved year-over-year oil product growth of 21% from go-forward asset base reaching an average daily rate of 176,000 barrels per day. As can be seen on slide four, this growth was driven entirely by light sweet crude production from our retained US assets which increased an impressive 56% compared to the first quarter of 2013. With our success in growing high-margin production, we expect oil and natural gas liquids to approach nearly 60% of Devon’s go-forward production mix by year end. In addition to our robust growth in high-margin oil production, we benefited from the sharp rise in natural gas pricing and improved Canadian heavy oil realizations. This increased first quarter upstream revenue by 42% compared to the first quarter of 2013. As shown on side five, 67% of our upstream revenue came from liquids. Higher revenues coupled with our low cost structure drove operating margins by more than 50% year over year. Another notable first quarter financial highlight was a 9% increase in Devon’s quarterly cash dividend to $0.24 per share. This is Devon’s 9th dividend increase since 2004 representing an annual compound growth rate of 23%. Our dividend increase reflects Devon’s long-term commitment to returning cash to our shareholders and ultimately underscores the confidence we have in our business. Looking beyond our operating and financial results for the quarter, we did an outstanding job in the past few months in executing our portfolio transformation which is now nearly complete. The first major milestone occurred on February 28th with the closing of our Eagle Ford acquisition. This acquisition of 82,000 net acres in the economic heart of the play adds a new light oil core area to Devon’s portfolio, offering some of the highest rate of return drilling opportunities in North America. While we’ve only owned this position for a short time, the reservoir performance that we’ve seen to date has been outstanding, fully supporting our production growth targets and double digit accretion in cash flow per debt adjusted share. One week later, on March 7th, we closed on our Midstream combination with Crosstex to form EnLink Midstream. EnLink units are now trading on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker symbols ENLC for the general partner and ENLK for the MLP. And while the assets we contributed were valued in the transaction at about $4.8 billion, the ownership interest in the EnLink securities that we received had a market value at yesterday’s close of more than $7.5 billion or approximately 27% of our current market capitalization. This valuable ownership was attained by contributing most of Devon’s US Midstream assets to EnLink. The contributed assets accounted for only 7% of Devon’s cash flow last year. Furthermore, the loss of this direct Midstream cash flow was offset by our receded [ph] quarterly distribution payments from EnLink and EnLink’s assumption of the associated capital obligations. Looking beyond these immediate benefits, we’re also excited about the attractive long-term growth prospect associated with this business. The stable fixed fee structure, the deep backlog of liquids oriented projects and the future drop down potential from both Devon and from the general partner provide a foundation for EnLink to deliver attractive distribution growth for many years. We took another significant step forward in our transformation in early April by closing the sale of our Canadian conventional business for CAD3.125 billion. This was the largest divestiture package in our non-core asset sale process and we attractively monetize these gas-weighted assets at nearly seven times EBITDA which is a substantial premium to Devon’s current trading multiple. After adjusting for currency exchange and taxes associated with both the sale and the repatriation of the funds to the US, we’re receiving net proceeds of US$2.7 billion. For our remaining divestiture assets which are all located in the US, we’re putting the final touches on the data rooms with the expectation to complete the sale of all non-core assets by year-end. Most recently, we opportunistically added to our core Cana-Woodford position by acquiring an additional 50,000 net acres and 5,800 equivalent barrels per day of production. These assets directly overlap our existing core Cana position and expand our opportunity set with exposure to other Western Oklahoma oil and gas plays. This move is consistent with our philosophy of building scale and scope in our core play areas. Later on the call, Dave will discuss some recent positive developments to Cana that led to our decision to acquire the additional interest. The bold steps we’ve recently taken to high grade our asset base have positioned Devon with a formidable and balanced portfolio focused on fewer core areas in some of the most attractive basins in North America. Our retained asset base consists of three world class oil development plays in the Permian Basin, the Eagle Ford, and Canadian Oil Sands. And two of the best liquids rich gas there is in the U.S., the Barnett Shale and the Anadarko Basin. Each of these core areas has the inventory to materially grow production and sufficient scale to generate substantial amounts of cash flow. Our capital budget for these retained properties in 2014 is around $5 billion concentrated in our three high margin oil development plays. Looking at slide six, company-wide oil production is expected to grow by more than 30% year over year led by a 70% plus increase in U.S. oil production. This should drive grow of about 10% in top line production on an energy equivalent basis or 20% higher on a 20-1 price equivalency basis. As evidenced by our solid first quarter performance, we are well on our way to achieving these attractive growth targets. In addition to the growth we’re delivering in 2014, Devon is also positioned for significant high margin oil growth in 2015 and beyond. That’s illustrated on slide seven, where you can see that we expect Devon’s retained asset base to generate organic oil production growth in excess of 20% in 2015. Let’s take a look at the specific drivers of this oil growth. Our most significant growth next year will come from low risk, infill drilling in the Eagle Ford where we expect production to average well over a 100,000 BOEs per day. In addition to this exceptional volume growth trajectory, this highly profitable production will also deliver a powerful free cash flow stream that should exceed $1 billion based on the current prices. So, just to be clear, that’s free cash flow is cash flow in excess over capital investment. Another driver growth in 2015 will be the acceleration of drilling activity in the Delaware Basin specifically in South-East New Mexico. Over the next year, we will accelerate development of our rapidly growing resource potential in that area. And Dave is going to provide more details on our significantly expanding inventory and significantly growing resource potential in this prolific basin later on in the call. And lastly in Canada, the start up of our Jackfish 3 facility later this year will commence another leg of multi-year oil production growth from our thermal oil business. In 2015, we expect net oil production from our Jackfish complex to increase to a range of between 62,000 and 67,000 barrels per day, representing a year-over-year growth rate of approximately 30%. Furthermore, the completion of Jackfish 3 will lower Devon’s overall capital intensity and begin an era of free cash flow from our Jackfish complex with the potential to generate up to $1 billion annually for many years. As you can see on slide eight, this wall of cash provides a significant source of capital for E&P investment, debt reduction, dividends, and share repurchases. So, in summary, I’ve never been more excited about Devon’s future than today. As outlined on slide nine, Devon has established itself as one of the largest oil producers among our North American onshore peers. When you combine the growth potential of our top tier oil development projects with our high quality natural gas optionality, we are a well positioned for extremely competitive growth rates for years to come. What makes our growth story even more compelling is Devon’s attractive valuation. Backing out the value of the EnLink securities from our enterprise value and EBITDA reveals that our E&P business is trading at just over four times EBITDA. As we continue to execute on our growth plan, Devon shares’ have the potential to benefit not only from improving margins and higher cash flow, but also through multiple expansion. So, with that, I will turn the call over the Dave Hager for a more detailed operations review, Dave?
Dave Hager:
Thanks, John. Good morning everyone. Let’s begin with a quick recap of our first quarter capital expenditures. Exploration development capital for the first quarter totaled $1.2 billion, just below the bottom end of our previous guidance range. Based on our planned activity levels to the remaining three quarters of 2014, we remain on track with full year drilling and completions capital guidance range of $4.8 billion to $5.2 billion for our go-forwards assets. As John indicated earlier, our focus on high margin oil projects led to another quarter of outstanding growth in oil production. Let’s take a closer at some of the first quarter operating highlights, beginning with the Permian; first quarter production averaged a record 91,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day. This record was driven by robust growth in oil production, which increased 36% compared to the first quarter of 2013 and with 9% higher than the previous quarter. Light oil production continues to account for 60% of our total Permian production. In the Delaware Basin our Bone Spring horizontal program is the most significant driver of our Permian oil growth. In the first quarter, we bought 35 Bone Springs wells online with an average 30 day IP raise approaching 700 barrels of oil equivalent per day of which 80% was light oil. Also in the Delaware Basin, we commenced production on two high rate oil wells targeting the Delaware Sands and Lee [ph] New Mexico. Initial 30 day production from these two wells averaged in excess of 1,000 BOE per day and consisted of nearly 90% light oil. The tremendous results we continue to see from our Delaware Basin drilling programs coupled with our ongoing reservoir characterization work has allowed us to substantially increase our risk inventory in the Delaware Basin. To help you more fully appreciate the scale and scope of our potential new Delaware Basin, I want to turn your attention to slide 10, which illustrates our acreage position by prospect [ph] deformation. As you can see the stack pay [ph] nature of our position and the Delaware Basin provides us with exposure not only as a Bone Spring and Delaware Sands, but also the Leonard Shale, Wolfcamp and several other oil zones. If you add up this lease hold buy [ph] formation you can see we have approximately 500,000 net acres to appraise and develop. Turning to slide 11, you can see this translates into a significant inventory of undrilled locations for Devon. Our largest and most economic opportunity is in the Bone Spring, we recently completed our comprehensive reservoir evaluation on a large portion of our Bone Spring acreage position. This work combined with strong well performance and successful appraisal drilling in several step-out areas has allowed us to add some 1,900 additional locations to our Bone Spring inventory. This booze [ph] an undrilled Bones Spring inventory to 3,500 locations, adding locations in the Delaware Sands, Leonard Shale and several other formation brings our total risk inventory at the Delaware Basin for more than 5,000 undrilled locations. To put this on prospective at our current activity levels, this represents more than 25 years of drilling inventory in the Delaware Basin. Keep in mind these are rest [ph] locations and do not include any location to our Wolfcamp acreage which we are currently evaluating. We fully expect additional inventory increases over time as Devon and the industry continue to de-risk this world class oil basin. With this significant inventory in the Delaware Basin as I can provide some thoughts on how we will approach converting this resource into production and cash flow. Today, we are running 12 rigs in the Delaware Basin, the appropriate level of activity given the availability in South-East New Mexico of gas gathering and processing capacity, high quality rigs, completion services and manpower. Our program in 2014 is focused almost entirely on our high rate of return and low risk Bone Spring development opportunities. Over the next year, we expect additional capacity build out within this portion of the Permian to support additional activity to further exploit our rapidly growing resource inventory in the region. While we are not ready to provide specific plans, our preliminary view on 2015 is that we will have the opportunity to significantly increase our drilling activity next year. This will allow us to continue aggressively developing our highly profitable Bone Spring and accelerate the development and appraisal of our Delaware Sands, Leonard Shale and Wolfcamp well inventories. Given our outlook for significant cash flow growth next year, we clearly have the means to fund a more robust level of activity. As John highlighted in his opening remarks, the acceleration of drilling activity in the Delaware Basin is a visible source of future light oil production in 2015 and will remain a cornerstone asset for Devon for many years to come. Shifting to the Southern Midland Basin, we will continue to see solid results from our oil development program, the Wolfcamp Shale, where we have a joint venture partnership with Sumitomo. During the first quarter, we tied in 26 Wolfcamp Shale wells, increasing our average net production in the play to an average of 10,000 BOE per day. Compared to the first quarter of 2013, this represents production growth of 8,000 BOE per day. Moving to the Eagle Ford, as John mentioned, we completed our acquisition of 82,000 net acres in Eagle Ford on February 28 and resulted in one month of production in our first quarter reported results. Although we have only owned these assets for a couple of months now, we couldn’t be more pleased with the quality and with our joint venture relationship with BHP in DeWitt County. The well and reservoir performance that we have seen today reinforces our previous forecast for average net daily production of 70,000 to 80,000 BOE per day for the 10 months we will own this asset this year. We are also on track to deliver well an excess of 100,000 BOE per day in 2015. As many of you are aware through recent BHP disclosures, March production on our DeWitt County acres was temporarily constrained by third party gathering system downtime and the timing of well tie-ins. In Eagle Ford, the production growth profile for most operators is somewhat lumpy due to nature or pad drilling and the Devon BHP partnership is no exception. With wells being bought on in groups as many as 20 at a time and the time in bringing on necessary infrastructure to tie into wells, the production growth would tend to come in step changes. For March, our first month of ownership, our net Eagle Ford production averaged 49,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day. However, as shown on Slide 12, an increase in well tie-ins at the end of March and in April had driven our net daily production up to 64,000 BOE per day currently. We expect to average between 65,000 and 70,000 BOE per day for the second quarter. And for the second half of the year, we expect our Eagle Ford production to increase to a range of 80,000 BOE to 85,000 BOE per day. Our growth in the Eagle Ford in the second half of this year has been driven by a large number of well tie-ins during that period. Our Eagle Ford drilling program remains on plan and at quarter end, we had an inventory of about 120 wells drilled but not yet producing. In the second half of the year, we expect this inventory to trim downward as we catch up on pad tie-ins and necessary transportation system permits [ph] are completed in DeWitt County. As I mentioned earlier, for the 10 months we will own the asset in 2014, we are on track to achieve our previously announced guidance of an average of 70,000 to 80,000 barrels per day. In addition to world-class oil development in DeWitt County, we are excited about the emerging opportunities we see ahead of us on our 32,000 net acres in Lavaca County. As you can see on Slide 13, recently announced well results in – by industry in this area represented in blue have included initial oil production rates of more than 1,000 barrels of oil per day. These results have far exceeded our expectations for the area. And with less than 10% of the acquisition value assigned to our 32,000 net acres, we are extremely encouraged with the upside potential on this acreage. We expect to bring our first Lavaca County wells online in the second quarter, and as previously disclosed, expect to participate in roughly 30 gross wells for the full year. And lastly, I want to briefly mention another potential upside we have identified across our entire position in the Eagle Ford. We have mapped our acreage position in Lavaca and DeWitt County and believe that most of our acreage is respectfully [ph] for the upper Eagle Ford formation. Our belief is supported by recently industry results as noted in green on slide 13. We are evaluating these results and the timing of our first operated well to test the upper Eagle Ford. Moving now to our thermal oil projects in Northeast Alberta on slide 14; first quarter gross production from our two Jackfish projects averaged roughly 62,000 barrels of oil per day or roughly 52,000 barrels per day after royalties. At Jackfish 1, gross production averaged 37 barrels per – 37,000 barrels per day or 29,000 barrels per day net of royalties. The success of our ongoing efforts to improve steam efficiency and well productivity allowed us to exceed the facility’s nameplate capacity of 35,000 barrels a day during the quarter. Recently, we have seen excellent results from efficiency modifications to our steam generators, lowering steam chamber pressures, optimizing the temperature profile in the steam chamber and conducting well stimulations. Continued success from these and other efforts underway to lower our steam oil ratio could result in continued growth and production above nameplate capacity. Construction of Jackfish 3 is essentially complete and plant commission activities are well underway. We expect to begin injecting steam in the third quarter of this year. Delivery of first oil is scheduled to occur late this year with production ramping up throughout 2015. At Pike, our thermal oil sands joint venture with BP, the approval process for the first stage of the Pike development remains on track. And we expect to receive regulatory approval later this year. As a reminder, the Pike 1 development project will have ultimate gross production capacity of 105,000 barrels of oil per day. Devon operates Pike with a 50% working interest. Shifting now to the Anadarko Basin in Western Oklahoma, our liquid rich Cana-Woodford Shale play average a record 60,000 BOE per day in the first quarter. As John mentioned, our recently announced transaction in the Cana-Woodford allows to increase our scale and scope in one of our core liquid rich gas plays and in a cost of less than $2 per BOE for the roughly 150 million barrels of rich [ph] resource. The additional 50,000 net acres increases our core Cana position to approximately 300,000 net acres. We were particularly excited to acquire this acreage after seeing some positive results from our recent technical work in the area. With the asset teams focused on managing base production, we discovered through reservoir engineering including pressure transient analysis, that we had enhancement opportunities on many of our core area producing wells. We have now performed these enhancements on about 70 producing wells and the results have been outstanding. In most cases, this inexpensive treatment took production per well from around 1 million cubic feet equivalent per day up to 3 million a day or more. We believe these efforts should increase EURs by about a Bcf per well with a payback period of less than three months. We have indentified more than 200 additional wells that can be treated in the core area including wells on our new acreage. In addition to this technical work, we continue to make improvements to our completion design. With our most recent wells, we have doubled the number of frac stages and increased the amount of propane [ph] pumped to about 6 million pounds per well, a 70% increase over our previous jobs. The results from these completion improvements, as well as our downhole work on the existing producers, had been outstanding. Production performers from these wells are exceeding our type curve model and significantly enhancing our rate of return. These stronger returns have improved the competitiveness of our Cana drilling within our portfolio, which ultimately led us to take advantage of the opportunity to acquire additional acreage. We’re evaluating the impact of the acquisition and the recent technical advancements at Cana on our capital allocation plan and we’ll discuss any modification during next quarter’s call. Looking at our Mississippian-Woodford trend in North Central Oklahoma, we brought 63 operated wells online during the quarter within the Sinopec joint venture area with overall results supporting our type curve expectations. Solid performance from these wells help drive our average first quarter production in the trend to 19,000 BOE per day of which 50% was light oil. This represents a production growth rate of 35% compared to the fourth quarter of 2013. The focus of our activity this year is on the JV area where we have the benefit of a carry and are seeing the most consistent results. And finally, our Rockies assets continue to deliver excellent results with net production averaging 20,000 BOE per day in the first quarter. Liquids production in the Rockies increased 21% compared to the first quarter of last year and account for nearly half of Devon’s product mix in the region. Our activity was highlighted by two high-rate oil wells brought online during the quarter, an Iberlin Ranch well targeting the Frontier formation that’s tied in with initial 30-day production rates averaging 2,000 BOE per day including more than 1,700 barrels of oil per day. We also commenced production on a well targeting the Parkman formation with 30-day production rate and averaging an excess of 1,100 BOE per day of which 96% was light oil. Devon has 150,000 net acres in the Powder River Basin prospective for multiple formations including the Parkman, Turner and Frontier. The company has identified approximately 1,000 risked locations across the Powder River Basin and expects its drilling inventory to increase as the company de-risks this oil opportunity. So in summary, we had another strong quarter of execution across our entire North American onshore portfolio. The core focus areas that I discussed today on the call are delivering highly economic and robust production growth for Devon. And with our drilling inventory of opportunities, we’re poised to deliver impressive oil growth in 2014 and beyond. With that, I’ll turn the call over to Tom for the financial review and outlook. Tom.
Tom Mitchell:
Thank you, Dave, and good morning everyone. Today, I’ll take you through a brief review of our financial and operating results in the first quarter and where called for provide a state of guidance. Before I get started, I wanted to remind everyone of the changes in our first quarter financial reporting resulting from the EnLink transaction. Now that Devon is the majority owner in EnLink, accounting rules require that 100% of EnLink’s revenues, expenses, debt and capital are consolidated within our financial statements. The minority ownership interest from the portion that we do not own will be netted and deducted on a line item in the financials entitled non-controlling interests. Due to these accounting changes, the comparability of first quarter results to prior quarters from a trend analysis perspective is challenging. However, in our earnings release and in our upcoming SEC filings, we’re providing supplemental schedules that will break out the results of our upstream business on that of EnLink. Since John covered the first quarter production highlights earlier in the call, I will begin with a quick review of our outlook of production. In the second quarter, we expect our go-forward asset portfolio to deliver total production of 609,000 to 631,000 BOE per day. This represents top line growth from our retained assets of approximately 15% compared to the second quarter of 2013. Most importantly, this expected increase on production is underpinned by a strong, high-margin oil growth. For our go-forward properties, we are forecasting oil production in the second quarter to increase by roughly 30% year-over-year to a range of between 200,000 and 210,000 barrels per day. This excellent growth in the high-margin oil production is driven by a full quarter of Eagle Ford production and continued success in our Permian development programs. For the full year, we remain comfortable with our previous guidance range and on track to produce between 579,000 and 622,000 BOE per day from our go-forward business, driven by a full year growth rate in excess of 30%. Moving to our upstream revenue, in the first quarter, improved priced realizations for all products combined with higher oil production drove our E&P upstream revenue to $2.6 billion. This represents an increase in oil, gas, and NGL sales of 42% compared to the year-ago quarter. The most notable improvements in regional pricing were attributable to our Canadian heavy oil production, strong gas realizations from our retained U.S. portfolio and a meaningful price uptick in mid-continent NGLs. In the first quarter, oil sales alone excluding NGLs accounted for more than 50% of our E&T revenue. Turning now to our midstream business, once again, our midstream business delivered excellent results generating $183 million of operating profits in the first quarter, a 47% increase compared to the first quarter of last year and about 27% above the high end of our guidance range. Improved price realization and effective cost management were the key drivers behind our first quarter outperformance. Our first quarter results did include 25 days of contribution from EnLink which amounted to $50 million of operating profits. Based on our strong start to the year, we’re confident of our full year forecast for midstream operating profit of $685 to $755 million. Moving to expenses overall, our first quarter pre-tax expenses were generally in line with our expectations totaling $1.8 billion. Excluding the cost associated with the consolidation of EnLink, pre-tax expenses were 8% higher than the first quarter of 2013. The increase in unit cost is attributable to higher production task and operating expenses associated with the company’s rapidly growing high-margin oil production. In addition, $22 million of non-recurring G&A transaction expenses associated with EnLink, Energy or Southern transactions and a change in our timing of our annual stock-based compensation grant resulted in an increase in the first quarter G&A. This stock-based equity grants were previously made in the fourth quarter of each year. However, to better raise stock-based compensation to the year’s performance, the 2013 grant was delayed to the first quarter of ‘14 resulting in no grant during the calendar year of 2013. In the upcoming quarter, we expect improvements in our unit cash cost looking specifically at our largest cash cost, least operating expense, we expect second quarter LOE to decline by about 5% sequentially to a range of $9 to $9.25 per BOE. This expected improvement in unit LOE cost is driven by our first full quarter of production from our low cost Eagle Ford assets and our high cost Canadian conventional business that took effect at the beginning of April. For those of you modeling Devon, it’s important to incorporate the change in our go-forward DD&A rates. In the second quarter, we expect DD&A expense to increase to a range of $13 to $14 per BOE. This increase in DD&A which of course is a non-cash expense is primarily attributable to a full quarter of depletion expense associated with our newly acquired Eagle Ford properties and the consolidation of EnLink. For the full year, our DD&A forecast remains unchanged at $12.5 to $14.5 per BOE. Cutting to the bottom line, our non-GAAP earnings increased to $547 million or $1.34 per share. This is more than double our earnings per share in the year-ago quarter and comfortably exceeded the Wall Street consensus expectations. This improved profitability translated into higher cash flows with first quarter operating cash flow totaling $1.4 billion, a 41% year-over-year. Before we open the call to Q&A, I’ll conclude my remarks with a quick review of our balance sheet and liquidity. At the end of the first quarter, our financial position remains strong reflecting an investment grade credit ratings across the board. With cash balances at $2 billion, we exited the quarter with a net debt balance of $13.5 billion. Of this amount, $1.5 billion of net debt is attributable to EnLink and is non-recourse to Devon. If you include the proceeds from the closing of our Canadian conventional divestiture package in early April, our net debt decreased to about $11 billion or just over $9 billion if you exclude EnLink’s net debt. Looking ahead, any proceeds from our U.S. divestiture process will be utilized to reduce debt further strengthening our high quality balance sheet. So with that, I’ll turn the call back over to Vince for Q&A. Vince.
Vince White:
Operator, we are ready for the first question.
Operator:
Your first question comes from the line of Arun Jayaram of Credit Suisse. Your line is open.
Arun Jayaram – Credit Suisse:
Good morning, gentlemen. It seems like the strong of the quarter was the Delaware Basin inventory update. So I just wanted to know if you can maybe elaborate a little bit on what drove the increase in the inventory. I believe your type curve was around 500 Mbo. Any thoughts on overall well performance? And I know you’re not ready to talk about the program next year. But could we see a pretty significant increase in activity? And how many rigs you’re running today in the Delaware?
Dave Hager:
Hi Arun, this is Dave. I’ll take a stab at that. We’re currently running 12 rigs in the Delaware. And yes, as we said, we do anticipate a significant increase next year as we work our way through all the limitations that currently exists out there – the availability of cash processing capacity, availability of rigs, completion crews, manpower, et cetera. And we’re working through all of those factors as we speak. Yes, this was a big story for us. And there are really two key things that factored into this, one is we have continued to appraise our acreage position throughout the Delaware Basin particularly in Lea and Eddy County. And so as we’re getting those results, it’s given us greater confidence to up our risk inventory. And obviously the results from those wells have been outstanding throughout our acreage position. And second, frankly, we’ve just taken the time to look at it in a more comprehensive manner than we’ve been able to do previously. And then we looked at it more comprehensively coupled with the outstanding well results across our entire acreage position. We suspected it was there, but we were basically able to move into our risk inventory. And so we feel very good. And I would point that the slide that we included there, Slide 11, did not include anything for the Wolfcamp. And the Wolfcamp we think has tremendous prospectivity in Southeastern Mexico. There’s just not a lot of wells have been drilled there yet. So we think as there’s additional wells drilled in that area that that inventory is going to increase also.
Arun Jayaram – Credit Suisse:
Okay. My question is on the Eagle Ford. It sounded like you’re well on track in terms of ‘14 despite the lower March. But as we think about the ‘15 program, a lot of confidence here around production north of or in excess of 100,000 barrels a day. Can you just talk about the confidence in the ramp and what’s given you that confidence? Is there early well results or what?
Dave Hager:
Yes, I’ll take a stab at that again, Arun. Absolutely, the well results have been 100% consistent with our acquisition expectations. These are outstanding wells. These are wells in the core of the core of the Eagle Ford. And so that gives us tremendous confidence, our infrastructure needs, our continuing to be build out. Frankly we think that already in the first couple of months that we’ve owned the asset, that grains [ph] have improved efficiency to the overall process and all of that put together gives us tremendous that we’re going to have the ramp that we talked about.
John Richels:
And Arun, it’s John. One thing I’d just toss in here to what David has already said, you’ll recall that when we did that acquisition, we indicated that GeoSouthern and BHP prior to the acquisition had drilled at least one well on every drilling unit across the DeWitt County acreage. So this confidence that Dave is talking about at Wall Street by the fact that we’ve got pretty darn good idea about what every drilling unit on that acreage looks like.
Arun Jayaram – Credit Suisse:
Okay, that’s great. Then just final question, as we think about heavy oil for the balance of the year, just thoughts on how you see that market playing out. And I know in ‘15, one of the potential headwinds exists on the Alberta Clipper, which hasn’t been approved yet by the State’s requirement. Any thoughts on ‘15 heavy oil differentials and is there enough rail maybe to soften the blow of the Alberta Clipper?
Darryl Smette:
Yes, this is Darryl. You’re exactly on point. We do expect that we’re going to see increased takeaway capacity with the Flanagan South pipeline. That’s due to come on mid-2014 probably later part of July is the date that we’re getting out to Enbridge. That’s a 585,000 barrel a day pipeline. We have a couple of permits that we have to get from the BOM, but anticipate that that will come on stream. That will bring additional capacity from Chicago down to the Cushing hub and then onto the gulf coast. The Alberta Clipper is the line that runs from Hardisty in Alberta down to the neck points in the mid-continent. That would add about 800,000 barrels a day of capacity. That is generally requiring only additional pump stations or more horse power, not additional line looping. We’re awaiting on or they’re awaiting – Enbridge is waiting on the government to issue those permits. The latest indication, we have from them is that they will expect those permits later on this year and so that capacity should be operational sometime in 2015.
Arun Jayaram – Credit Suisse:
Thanks a lot.
Vince White:
Darryl, could you just bring that all together and summarize – I mean you have a lot of detailed knowledge there clearly, but summarize what this means for differentials.
Darryl Smette:
Well, in terms of differentials, they’ve been fairly volatile. And supply and demand have been fairly balanced over the last couple of years. And we have seen that volatility ranging anywhere from $20 up to as high as $40.5. With that additional capacity coming on stream including some additional capacity, some of the refineries, we think those differentials will have downward pressure. So while they’ll still remain volatile, we think that they’ll be on that $20 to $25 barrel range and maybe $26 barrel range consistently rather than the volatility that we’ve seen from $20 up to $40 or $45.
Vince White:
Thank you.
Darryl Smette:
And no, Vince, I might also add just as an addition there, is that we do have as an industry as lot of rail capacity now. Two years ago, as an industry, we had about 125,000 barrels or rail capacity out of Canada to United States. By the end of this year, that will be close to 650,000 barrels a day. So not only are we hopeful with the pipelines coming on stream, but there is also the additional rail capacity that makes us feel very good about where differentials are going.
Vince White:
Great. Operator, I want to remind everybody to limit their questions to one initial inquiring and one follow up. And we’re ready for the next participant.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Doug Leggate from Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Your line is now open.
Doug Leggate – Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Thanks. I appreciate you getting me engaged. I’ll try to do a quick one hopefully. So I’m trying to understand how we should interpret the balance sheet comment because you’ve obviously got substantial inventory potential in the Delaware, but also the Eagle Ford inventory is going up and now you’ve got the Rockies and – I guess the Cana is audited [ph] as well. Should we think of you spending your cash like old Devon or should we think about you starting to use your balance sheet to accelerate the overall pace. I know you’re not ready to give details specifically yet, but just high level how should we think about activity roles?
Vince White:
This is Vince, Doug. My first observation is while we have this growing resource inventory, we also have a lot of growth in cash flow. So when you look at 2015 with the free cash flow thrown off by the Eagle Ford over and above the capital requirements and by our thermal projects, we’ve got a lot of capacity to invest in this expanding inventory.
Dave Hager:
And Doug, we’re in a position now – the reason we’re so excited about where we are as a company frankly, we’re in a position now where we think we can grow our oil productions which is obviously our highest margin product by 20% of more for a considerable period of time while living within cash flow. And with a $9 billion debt level, we’re probably at a fairly appropriate place for us to be. And we haven’t been in the position in the past few years of being able to grow that kind of production which – and the important part of it is of course is that we’re also commensurately growing our cash flow per share without ramping up debt or summoning [ph] bunch of equity out the door. And that’s pretty exciting position for us to be in. And that kind of growth rate for company our size I think stacks up pretty well.
Doug Leggate – Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Yes, a big change from six months ago for sure [ph]. My follow up real quick is ownership in the GP, just a big picture of comments there in terms of – 70%, it just seems there’s no need to really have that big of a position. I’m just curious as how you’re thinking about that and all these matters [ph]. Thank you.
Dave Hager:
Yes, that’s turned out really well for us. As you know, as we said, we put those assets in at about $4.8 billion worth [indiscernible] today. So there’s been a huge amount of accretion and it’s a strategic asset for us. We’ve always wanted to keep control of those assets or have some influence over those assets because they’re so integral to our operations. And we think there’s going to be a lot of value accretion at the EnLink level over the next few years not only from a bunch of really exciting ideas that are – the management team at EnLink has but also through the continuation of the dropdowns from the general partner and also from Devon. And you’ll recall we’ve given a right of first offer to EnLink to purchase the expanded access pipeline in Canada when it’s complete. So we’re going to see a lot of growth. Now having said that, you’re absolutely right that they’re – we got a larger position today than we ultimately need to control. But that’s not lost [ph] on us. We always look at ways to realize that. But frankly, we got to do something that is creative and innovative, Doug, because just selling a bunch of units and paying a lot of tax isn’t the way to do it. So we’re really actually excited about that position and the continued growth, but we’ll always keep our eye on that.
Doug Leggate – Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
I appreciate the answers. Thank you.
Vince White:
Operator, we’re ready for the next question.
Operator:
Great. Your next question comes from the line of Brian Singer from Goldman Sachs. Your line is open.
Brian Singer – Goldman Sachs:
Thank you. Good morning. You touched on Canadian oil realizations earlier but I wanted to ask on U.S. oil realizations which looks like they widened out a bit. I assume some of that is adding condensate in Eagle Ford but I wanted to see how you think your differentials will fall out as we go forward both on the condensate front of Eagle Ford and then if you expect any bottlenecks in the Permian both from a midstream ability to get oil out and then also if there are any changes in your gravity in related realizations of the Delaware Basin.
Darryl Smette:
Yeah, this is Darryl again. Let’s first take the Permian. We have seen differentials widen there since the end of last year into the first quarter where differentials both for West Texas sour and West Texas sweet were about $3.50. Fourth – or the second quarter this year looks like that’s going to be closer to $8 as driven by a couple of facts. We’ve just been increased production out of the Permian Basin, plus there were some refinery maintenance that extended longer than was anticipated, about three weeks. That’s caused a bottleneck and a buildup of supply. All of that should be relieved by the end of this quarter as we have another 350,000 barrels a day of pipeline capacity coming on stream – 50,000 is an expansion of the longhorn system that was put in place last year; 300,000 of that is BridgeTex. So when you add all of that capacity, that gives you about 5.6 million barrels of export capacity. There’s about 400 million, I guess, of refining and production out there that’s around 1.5 million. So right now, we think the differentials while they’re $8, that’s going to narrow somewhat less than 250 as we go through the rest of the year. So we feel pretty good about that. As we look at differentials in the Eagle Ford, our average gravity in Eagle Ford is about 52 degrees. First month that we had that asset, our net differential of WTI was about $7. We expect that to continue to be volatile as more of that type of crude is produced. But we think that’s going to be volatile in a range of about $6 to $12 of WTI. That should work itself up. We think based on the projects that are ongoing in terms of splitters that will allow some of that lighter end product to be split out. In the next board, we think that differential will narrow down to the $6 to $8 range as we go forward. All of these are things that we have anticipated when we made the acquisition. Our view still hasn’t changed.
Brian Singer – Goldman Sachs:
Great, thank you. That’s helpful. And then just thinking in the 2015, your comments on increasing activity again particularly on the Permian Basin, what are you doing to mitigate the cost inflation and what level of cost increases are you expecting or able to withstand when you think about that in CapEx and activity levels?
Darryl Smette:
Well, the economics on these plays are pretty robust. So although the plays could handle higher CapEx, we do a lot of work to avoid that situation obviously. And we have just actually finished for this year and just recently our rebidding [ph] of all our stimulation work for the year were able – we have very good relationships with the key vendors, have had them over multiple years. We were able to avoid any significant price increases. That’s going to be basically flat in 2014 versus 2013. And we anticipate that these type of relationships are going to help us significantly in the future. I can’t predict exactly what 2015 is going to look like but when you think of 2014, it’s already had rapidly increasing activity in the Permian. But there is at the same time a lot of additional capacity coming into the Permian. So I don’t think we’re going to have a significant issue there.
Brian Singer – Goldman Sachs:
Great, thank you.
Darryl Smette:
Operator, next question.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Subash Chandra from Jefferies. Your line is open.
Subash Chandra – Jefferies & Company:
Yeah, hi. I just want to confirm that Eagle Ford guidance did not include Lavaca County.
Darryl Smette:
It does include Lavaca County. That includes our entire Eagle Ford position, the 17,000, 18,000 which is what we originally got into also.
Subash Chandra – Jefferies & Company:
Right, okay. Got it, okay. And the second one on the Permian and Bone Springs and it looks like it’ll be a Bone Spring heavy program. What sort of initiatives are there or potential for more water recycling out in the Delaware and what are sort of the technical challenges of doing that, if any?
John Richels:
Yeah, probably one of the biggest challenges that we have is – and you can get an idea from the map that we included in there, but our acreage is spread out throughout DeWitt and Eddy County. So to the degree that we have contiguous position that has sufficient scale, that allows us to get into where water recycling can work more efficiently. And we’re working through that right now. We’re already doing that in the South Midland Basin as we speak and we’re looking for opportunities to expand that into the Delaware Basin.
Subash Chandra – Jefferies & Company:
And just along those lines, some of these other horizons, Leonard, et cetera, are they dryer than the Bone Springs –
Darryl Smette:
Well, we have included in our account essentially the oil areas of each of these because these are the ones that we think are economic. So I know these are – with Leonard, I think some of the industry competition has been talking about wells or drilling in the Leonard and we’re right in and amongst those wells. But frankly, we have as good, if not, better acres positioned. Some of the other people are talking about it. So we feel very good and actually, the Wolfcamp extends further to the west than we have outlined on the map but we’ve just really highlighted what we think is the oily portion of the Wolfcamp on that map. So, no, these are essentially – these are really oil opportunities that have strong economics right now.
Subash Chandra – Jefferies & Company:
Okay. I guess I was referring in terms of dry, in terms of not having quite as much formation water as the conventional targets like Bone Springs.
Darryl Smette:
No significant difference that I’m aware of but I may have to research that a little more. But I’m not aware of any significant changes.
Subash Chandra – Jefferies & Company:
Okay, great. Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Jeffrey Campbell from Tuohy Brothers Investments. Your line is open.
Jeffrey Campbell – Tuohy Brothers Investment Research:
Thank you and good morning.
John Richels:
Good morning, Jeff.
Dave Hager:
Good morning.
Jeffrey Campbell – Tuohy Brothers Investment Research:
I wanted to ask – kind of jump to the Powder River. How contiguous is your position there? And along with that, do you have multiples on exposure on some of the acreage or do the frontier in the Parkman and Turner tend to occur individually on discrete locations?
John Richels:
We have acreage throughout Campbell County but we also have some very nice positions that our contiguous in that area. To give you an idea, we have so far been what I would consider appraisal mode – appraising areas throughout Campbell County. Now we are in the position into Parkman and to a large degree also into Turner. But we’re going to go into full development mode on those formations. And so what you’re going to see from us in the future is better economic – overall economic results as we can focus on development and get our costs down, get our EURs up even more consistently. So we’re seeing outstanding results. And I can tell you that our program in the last quarter really delivered good results and you’re going to see a continuous movement in that direction as we get out of the mode of appraising our entire acreage position and get into the mode of focusing on the most economic development areas.
Jeffrey Campbell – Tuohy Brothers Investment Research:
So just to follow up on what you just said, as you go into development mode, will you start to see a significant rise in rigs as we’re going to see in Delaware or does there still need to be some more work done before you –
John Richels:
We think the opportunity is there. We’re going to have three rigs working right now. We want to walk before we run, I guess you’d say. But there’s certainly opportunity to raise the rig count in the future. But we’re going to see how these developments go. And if they work out the way we think they’re going to work out, the opportunity is certainly there to raise the rig count in the future.
Jeffrey Campbell – Tuohy Brothers Investment Research:
Great. And if I can ask just another quick question. Can you tell me what your current well spacing assumptions are for your 2015 production projections in Eagle Ford?
John Richels:
There are various well spacing assumptions depending on exactly where the wells are located throughout our acreage position. They vary on the order of 40 acres to 80 acres for the average about 60-acre spacing.
Jeffrey Campbell – Tuohy Brothers Investment Research:
Okay, great. Thank you.
John Richels:
Okay. Well, folks, we’re sure on top of the hour and if there are any other questions, don’t hesitate to call us. We’ll be around all day. And just before signing off, let me leave you with just a few takeaways from today’s call. First, I think we’ve done an excellent job of improving our portfolio on a very short period of time. Devon’s emerged with a formidable portfolio that’s on track to deliver multi-year growth production – oil production growth in excess of 20% while generating free cash flow. And as evidenced by our Q1 results, our pursuit of high margin production is significantly expanding our margins and profitability. And finally, the resource potential associated with our world-class Permian position continues to get better with time and is clearly a cornerstone growth asset for Devon. As I mentioned earlier, as I look ahead, I’ve never been more excited about the future prospects for Devon. Even with all of the exciting changes, our approach to the business remains unchanged. We will continue to aggressively pursue our top strategic objective of maximizing shareholder returns by optimizing long term growth and debt adjusted cash flow per share. So we look forward to talking with you again at the next call and thank you very much for joining us today.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today’s conference call. You may now disconnect.